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No Council Tax Rebate in Northern Ireland; add its £200 Alternative Fuel Payment - #2735

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No Council Tax Rebate in Northern Ireland; add its £200 Alternative Fuel Payment#2735
juaristi22 merged 11 commits into
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 29, 2026 •
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Fixes #2734

Depends on #2726. This branch starts from #2726's head (9d4f759), because both change the same rebate files, tests and docs page. Until #2726 merges, the diff below includes its commits; this PR's own change is 9d4f7591b...ni-ctr-afp-oct-2026. Like #2726, it waits for the end of the Budget-week merge hold and for Max's ruling on d2161 (no automatic agent merges in policyengine-uk).

What and why

1. No Council Tax Rebate in Northern Ireland

ebr_council_tax_rebate paid the 2022 £150 rebate to every household in council tax bands A to D, with no country check. Northern Ireland levies domestic rates, not council tax (Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977), and had no Council Tax Rebate:

The enhanced FRS gives every Northern Ireland household band A, in the 2022-23, 2023-24 and certified 2024-25 files alike. policyengine-uk-data's FRS build fills a missing band with code 1, which categorical maps to band A. So the model paid all of them £150. The formula now pays nothing in a year the household's country is Northern Ireland, whatever the band. The Great Britain rule doesn't change.

2. Northern Ireland's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment

Northern Ireland's households received one £600 payment from January 2023. The EBSS AFP NI Direction (23 December 2022, made under section 22 of the Energy Prices Act 2022) defines it as "a support payment of £600.00", and its footnote 1 says it combines £400 of Energy Bill Support Scheme support with a £200 Alternative Fuel Payment. Its eligible customers are the domestic electricity customers at 08:00 on 2 January 2023, with no heating-fuel condition. GOV.UK says the main rollout began on 16 January 2023, with the AFP going "to all households". The model paid the £400 only.

New:

  • gov.treasury.energy_bills_rebate.alternative_fuel_payment_northern_ireland: £200 in January 2023, nothing in any other month.
  • monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment (MONTH): the payment for households in Northern Ireland that year with a qualifying electricity supply (ebr_energy_bills_credit_eligible), the same eligibility and month as the £400.
  • ebr_alternative_fuel_payment (YEAR): the calendar-year sum, as ebr_energy_bills_credit sums the £400 (Correct Energy Bills Support Scheme amounts and timing #2103's convention; the timing question is d2155).
  • energy_bills_rebate adds it, so it reaches household net income, government spending and HBAI income with the rest of the rebate.

Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment, for households that heat with heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels (GOV.UK), stays unmodelled. Suppliers paid it to the meters the government named (direction, paragraph 6), so modelling it means choosing a heating-fuel proxy (follow-up below).

Also: programs.yaml registers the Energy Bills Rebate (it had no entry), and the docs page (cost-of-living-payments.md) describes both changes and what the model leaves out.

Invariants

Each holds for every input, and a Hypothesis property test checks it over generated households in every nation and band, 2015 to 2030, with random monthly electricity eligibility. Some generated households stay in one nation; others draw a nation for each year, so they move between 2022 and 2023 (test_energy_bills_rebate_northern_ireland_properties.py):

  1. No household receives the Council Tax Rebate in a year it lives in Northern Ireland, in any band.
  2. The Alternative Fuel Payment is £200, paid once, in January 2023, to each household in Northern Ireland in 2023 with a qualifying electricity supply that month, and never to a household in Great Britain in 2023.
  3. A household in Northern Ireland in 2022 receives no rebate that year. One in Northern Ireland in 2023 receives exactly the direction's £600 that year if it had a qualifying electricity supply in January 2023, and nothing otherwise. So a household in Northern Ireland in both years receives £600 over the whole scheme. (One that moves in from Great Britain also keeps its 2022 Great Britain rebate: £349 + £600 in bands A to D, with a qualifying electricity supply from October 2022 to January 2023.)
  4. In every year, energy_bills_rebate equals the sum of its three parts, and no part is negative.

#2726's property tests still hold, with two updates: the rebate-paid-once test now expects nothing in Northern Ireland, and the parts test lists the new variable. Its HBAI identity (HBAI income rises by exactly energy_bills_rebate) now covers the Alternative Fuel Payment too.

Test plan

  • YAML: energy_bills_rebate/ 33 cases pass, including 5 new Council Tax Rebate cases (each Great Britain nation pays; Northern Ireland gets nothing in any band or on the default band; the 2022 nation decides, for moves both ways), 9 Alternative Fuel Payment cases (including moves both ways and a Northern Ireland input for 2022 alone), and 2 changed or new HBAI cases (Northern Ireland's £600 in 2023; nothing in 2022).
  • Property tests: the 4 new ones and Count the 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI income, and apply the trading allowance to Chapter 8 miscellaneous income #2726's 3 pass at 574fc9b (90 s, 3 workers); 63febc4 changes only docs and YAML comments, and the 33 YAML cases pass there.
  • test_program_registry.py, test_fiscal_partition.py and the aggregate-impact partition tests: 161 pass.
  • Every YAML file that sets Northern Ireland (42 files, 634 cases) and every other Python test file that sets Northern Ireland in 2022 or 2023 (17 files, 474 tests) pass at 4da9f37; the review fixes since touch only tests and docs.
  • Mutation check: 8 mutants, each caught by both the YAML and the property tests: the rebate paid in Northern Ireland, Scotland excluded instead of Northern Ireland, the AFP paid in Great Britain, paid in February, left out of energy_bills_rebate, paid without a qualifying supply, paid at £400, and paid on the previous year's nation (the mutant review r1 found surviving the first property tests).
  • CI (running at 63febc4).

Aggregate impact

CI's aggregate-impact report covers 2025-26 to 2031-32, where both payments are nil, so it should show no change. The change falls in 2022 and 2023. I measured those on the base (9d4f759) and head (4da9f37; the review fixes since change no formula) with real model runs of the rebate variables:

Year Dataset Northern Ireland, base Northern Ireland, head Change
2022 enhanced FRS 2022-23 (uk-data 1.16.1) Council Tax Rebate £112.6m to 750,719 households £0 −£112.6m
2023 enhanced FRS 2023-24 (uk-data 1.55.10) Energy Bills Rebate £295.4m £443.1m (Alternative Fuel Payment £147.7m to 738,511 households) +£147.7m

England, Scotland and Wales don't change in either year. The current model can't load the 2022-23 file whole (its stored enums predate the model's), so the 2022 run loads only the structure, weights, region, council tax band and the columns uprating reads, with 332 blank Great Britain bands set to D; the Northern Ireland figures don't depend on those.

For scale:

  • The model's 2022 England rebate (£2,896m) sits near the guidance's core allocation of £2,925m (Annex A: £3,069m in total, of which £144m went to the Discretionary Fund).
  • DESNZ's end-of-scheme figures count 819,470 Northern Ireland £600 payments delivered, worth £491.7m (sheet 2). The model's 738,511 households and £443.1m come to 90% of that; DESNZ counts electricity accounts, not households.

Scripts, outputs and saved sources: ~/reviews/pe-uk-ni-ctr-afp/ (measure_impact.py, impact_{base,head}_{2022,2023}.json, sources/).

Review

GPT-6.1 Sol r1 at 4da9f37: APPROVE with two minor findings, both fixed in 574fc9b. (1) The property tests kept each household in one nation, so a previous-year-nation mutant survived them; they now draw a nation per year, invariant 3 states the £600 per year, and YAML covers moves. (2) The docs said suppliers paid every Northern Ireland payment by 31 March 2023; they now give the direction's normal deadline and the 30 June 2023 limit for reissued vouchers and cheques. It also listed three claims its offline sources couldn't confirm; the links above now cite each (Annex A, the uk-data band fill, GOV.UK's description of Great Britain's AFP). Sol r2 (delta at 574fc9b): APPROVE; both findings resolved, and both test layers caught two further mutants it tried (the AFP on the previous year's nation only, the rebate on the following year's nation). Its three wording points (the 16 January date is the main rollout's start; the mover example needs a qualifying supply; the 30 September date is the deadline for reconciled payments, inherited from #2726) are fixed in 63febc4. Sol r3 (wording delta at 63febc4): APPROVE, no new findings.

Reports: ~/reviews/pe-uk-ni-ctr-afp/review-r{1,2,3}-full.md.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#505 queued (no module encodes the 2022 Energy Bills Rebate; neither source is in the corpus yet)

Follow-ups (not in this PR)

  • Scotland and Wales also paid the £150 to Council Tax Reduction recipients in any band; the model pays bands A to D only.
  • England's rebate also covered band E homes with an alternative band D under the disabled band reduction scheme (guidance paragraph 11(i)); the model has no input for that reduction.
  • Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment and the alternative funding schemes aren't modelled. The liquid and solid fuel inputs from Inputs and fixes Microcosm UK needs: bonus sacrifice, spousal maintenance, Widowed Parent's Allowance, student loan plans, other heating fuels #2572 could proxy the Alternative Fuel Payment's eligibility.
  • uk-data fills Northern Ireland's missing council tax band with band A; nothing else in the model reads it there today.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/council_tax_rebate.yaml::Northern Ireland households get no rebate, in any band.; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/alternative_fuel_payment.yaml::Case 6, Northern Ireland's full 2023 rebate is the direction's £600.; policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_bills_rebate_northern_ireland_properties.py::test_northern_ireland_never_gets_the_council_tax_rebate

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 9 commits October 28, 2026 15:47
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count the 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI income; trading allowance …
b6eadca 
…on Chapter 8 income

- HBAI household net income adds energy_bills_rebate as miscellaneous
  income (DWP HBAI QMI FYE 2023); the Council Tax Rebate is paid in
  2022-23 only (payments by 30 September 2022).
- The trading allowance relieves income not otherwise charged (ITTOIA
  2005 s. 783AB), sharing one allowance with trade receipts. New
  optional input income_not_otherwise_charged (default 0), deduction
  miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction, flag
  uses_trading_allowance for the loss opt-out, and
  miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance for means tests.

Fixes #2724, fixes #2725.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Test the trading allowance on Chapter 8 income and the rebate in HBAI…
bd9cca3 
… income

YAML cases for miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction worked from
ITTOIA 2005 Part 6A, Hypothesis properties for both fixes (a statutory
differential, one allowance, bounds, monotonicity, trade parity, the loss
election), and the Energy Bills Rebate docs: the monthly EBSS, the one-off
Council Tax Rebate and its HBAI treatment as miscellaneous income.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Uprate income_not_otherwise_charged with miscellaneous_income
ddbdf0d 
It declares the GDP-per-capita index, so dataset projection needs it in
uprating_indices.yaml (test_uprating_declarations), in the block that
grows miscellaneous_income, which it is part of.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1: losses brought forward, unknown receipts, s. 783AM
729062e 
The trades-first split of the allowance charges the least income tax only
without trade losses brought forward. With them, a smaller trade share can
charge less now but uses up a loss that otherwise carries forward (ITA 2007
ss. 83-84) and raises Class 4 profits. The helper now says so instead of
claiming every split is tax-neutral, and YAML Case 14 pins the split.

The property tests draw losses brought forward and negative profits. The
statutory reference returns the trades-first figure, which the model must
match, and the lowest figure any split under s. 783AK allows, which it
must never undercut and must equal without losses brought forward.

The docs state the zero-receipts reading for a loss-making trade, and that
ordinary treatment is an election out of full relief (s. 783AL) or no
election for partial relief (s. 783AM).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r2: HBAI rebate by financial year, Welsh guard, pensio…
1077aa2 
…n relief

- HBAI counts the Energy Bills Rebate by financial year, as DWP does:
  hbai_energy_bills_rebate sums the monthly credit from April to the next
  March, so the whole £400 (Northern Ireland's January 2023 payment too)
  counts in 2022-23 and nothing in 2023-24. energy_bills_rebate keeps the
  calendar-year sum for household net income and government spending.
- The Welsh childcare offer's reviewed source set now names
  miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance (CI's only failure).
- The trading allowance docstring no longer claims every split charges the
  same income tax without losses brought forward: pension relief reads the
  trade's share too. YAML Case 15 pins the trades-first result.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r3: the financial year's nation, HBAI small-cell prote…
cc7002d 
…ction

- hbai_energy_bills_rebate now picks the scheme by the household's nation
  in the financial year, reading eligibility and the schedule month by
  month. Before, January to March read the next model year's country, so
  a move (or a country set for one year only) mixed the two schemes: £599
  or £201 where 2022-23 should hold £400. The monthly credit's scheme
  choice moves into ebss_credit, shared by both. YAML Cases 8-10 and the
  financial-year property test (now with households that move) pin it.
- The aggregate-impact report counts the financial-year rebate's own
  records and suppresses it like a head (measure.HBAI_ONLY_COMPONENTS):
  HBAI income, its deciles, poverty and inequality leave it out in a year
  it is suppressed. HBAI no longer holds the calendar-year head by name,
  so suppressing that head left the payment in. New measure tests,
  including a differential over awards, pin it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r4: count the calendar-year rebate in HBAI income
0deb0bb 
Review r4 showed that a second, financial-year figure for the 2022 Energy
Bills Rebate lets published calendar-year and financial-year totals, or a
reform change, give back a suppressed small-cell award. Withdraw that copy
instead of adding cross-window suppression:

- Delete hbai_energy_bills_rebate and the ebss_credit helper; restore
  monthly_ebr_energy_bills_credit, the aggregate-impact measure, privacy
  notes, README and measure tests to main.
- HBAI income adds energy_bills_rebate itself, which the report already
  protects as a fiscal-partition head.
- Restore the r1 rebate YAML and property tests, and note the calendar-year
  sum (GBP 349 in 2022 and GBP 201 in 2023 against HBAI's GBP 550 in
  2022-23) in the docs, the HBAI list and the YAML header. The docs also
  state how a one-year country input selects the scheme.

Whether to sum the EBSS and EPG by financial year is a methodology choice
across household net income, gov spending and HBAI, outside this PR.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r5: the EPG's timing does not reach HBAI income
9d4f759 
epg_subsidy counts in household net income and government spending but not
in HBAI income, so only the Energy Bills Support Scheme's timing would move
all three measures. Correct the docs page.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
No Council Tax Rebate in Northern Ireland; add its £200 Alternative F…
4da9f37 
…uel Payment

England's £150 Council Tax Rebate applied to England only (billing authority
guidance, paragraph 2); Scotland and Wales paid their own £150 to bands A-D.
Northern Ireland levies domestic rates, not council tax, and had no rebate,
but ebr_council_tax_rebate had no country check and the enhanced FRS gives
every Northern Ireland household band A, so the model paid all of them £150
in 2022.

Northern Ireland's households instead received one £600 payment from
January 2023: £400 of Energy Bills Support Scheme support and a £200
Alternative Fuel Payment, to each domestic electricity customer on
2 January 2023 (EBSS AFP NI Direction, 23 December 2022, paragraph 3 and
footnote 1). The model paid the £400 only. ebr_alternative_fuel_payment adds
the £200 with the same eligibility and month.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2c7bf5a775 against head 50cce3babc, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,774,885 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,687,092 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 2c7bf5a775 uk 2.164.1 (files 6e0aa193e191), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 baf287432de7 1eac2ca06b91 1892.99s
head #2735 merged into main 50cce3babc uk 2.164.1 (files c04ac0931beb), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 baf287432de7 1eac2ca06b91 1891.7s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £334.00bn £349.45bn £365.10bn £383.16bn £397.71bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.88bn £266.66bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.21bn £2.27bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.59bn £26.54bn £26.58bn £26.26bn £25.53bn £24.40bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.73bn £129.50bn £132.99bn £136.66bn £140.43bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.03bn £7.30bn £7.51bn £7.65bn £7.84bn £8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £80.52bn £83.04bn £85.11bn £86.31bn £87.90bn £88.58bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.89bn £9.24bn £9.48bn £9.72bn £9.99bn £10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.31bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.82bn £0.84bn £0.86bn £0.88bn £0.90bn £0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.35bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.57bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.59bn £0.59bn £0.57bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.62bn £3.75bn £3.83bn £3.92bn £4.01bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.38bn £2.44bn £2.51bn £2.56bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,486k 1,480k 1,474k 1,455k 1,453k 1,455k 1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,357k 6,349k 6,350k 6,318k 6,307k 6,299k 6,253k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,245k 1,246k 1,229k 1,229k 1,229k 1,232k
Council Tax Reduction 3,176k 3,195k 3,200k 3,215k 3,224k 3,235k 3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,044k 1,046k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 355k 353k 351k 340k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,025k 1,021k 1,022k 1,008k 1,005k 991k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 804k 806k 809k 814k 814k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,074k 1,076k 1,079k 1,089k 1,090k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £935.14bn £979.55bn £1,013.85bn £1,052.14bn £1,089.13bn £1,122.37bn
Government spending £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.63bn † £391.59bn † £428.62bn † £454.08bn † £484.61bn † £512.85bn † £538.35bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £935.14bn £979.55bn £1,013.85bn £1,052.14bn £1,089.13bn £1,122.37bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.87bn £549.93bn £573.92bn £598.90bn £624.26bn £645.90bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.74bn £541.54bn £564.86bn £589.61bn £614.72bn £636.09bn
gov_spending £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
household_benefits £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
gov_balance £362.63bn † £391.59bn † £428.62bn † £454.08bn † £484.61bn † £512.85bn † £538.35bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.68bn † £1,685.25bn † £1,716.89bn † £1,749.83bn † £1,781.12bn † £1,819.78bn † £1,862.63bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.57bn £1,497.73bn £1,532.81bn £1,567.21bn £1,600.01bn £1,638.04bn £1,679.21bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.6% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.3% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.9% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.5% 14.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.1% 22.0% 22.5% 22.7% 23.0% 23.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.2% 32.4% 32.5% 33.0% 33.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.9% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.0% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.6% 13.1% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 23.4% 23.3% 22.9% 22.8% 22.9% 23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.3% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8% 13.9% 14.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.1% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,278k 10,837k 11,403k 11,358k 11,478k 11,506k 11,643k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,688k 3,332k 3,496k 3,437k 3,477k 3,499k 3,545k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,965k 5,921k 6,308k 6,354k 6,417k 6,426k 6,517k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,584k 1,599k 1,568k 1,583k 1,580k 1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,662k 15,296k 15,679k 15,862k 16,047k 16,331k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,689k 4,832k 4,863k 4,898k 4,986k 5,125k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,491k 8,965k 9,325k 9,464k 9,549k 9,669k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,482k 1,500k 1,491k 1,500k 1,513k 1,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,750k 11,332k 11,389k 11,348k 11,358k 11,410k 11,702k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,872k 3,504k 3,496k 3,434k 3,431k 3,451k 3,577k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,159k 6,103k 6,301k 6,349k 6,363k 6,388k 6,540k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,720k 1,724k 1,592k 1,565k 1,563k 1,571k 1,585k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,849k 14,583k 14,728k 14,809k 14,885k 15,005k 15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,942k 4,664k 4,660k 4,663k 4,681k 4,702k 4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,460k 8,679k 8,821k 8,877k 8,964k 9,056k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,482k 1,459k 1,389k 1,325k 1,327k 1,340k 1,366k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3080 0.3057 0.3063 0.3062 0.3068 0.3073 0.3089
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £17,895 † £17,904 † £18,146 † £18,308 † £18,581 † £18,739 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,939 † £28,874 † £28,683 † £29,083 † £29,354 † £29,679 † £30,165 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,320 † £35,455 † £36,108 † £36,626 † £37,218 † £37,722 † £38,220 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,933 † £40,603 † £41,873 † £42,783 † £43,423 † £43,928 † £44,548 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,240 † £45,443 † £45,787 † £46,995 † £47,729 † £48,921 † £50,229 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,900 † £49,126 † £50,887 † £51,727 † £52,600 † £54,202 † £55,195 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,684 † £56,509 † £57,443 † £57,966 † £59,083 † £59,211 † £60,667 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,789 † £70,704 † £71,779 † £73,356 † £73,945 † £75,356 † £77,241 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £80,992 † £82,907 † £84,246 † £85,584 † £87,169 † £89,597 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,005 † £120,262 † £122,221 † £124,681 † £126,775 † £129,108 † £131,486 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.64bn £6.88bn £7.04bn £7.26bn £7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.23bn £4.43bn £4.70bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.80bn £-3.92bn £-3.98bn £-4.10bn £-4.17bn £-4.21bn £-1.96bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.39bn £-1.30bn £-1.17bn £-1.06bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.37bn £-20.88bn £-21.32bn £-21.52bn £-21.86bn £-22.25bn £-22.42bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.73bn £12.03bn £12.30bn £12.61bn £13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.18bn £-3.25bn £-3.34bn £-3.44bn £-3.48bn £-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-7.99bn £-8.14bn £-8.42bn £-8.55bn £-8.89bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.80bn £7.01bn £7.21bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.16bn £-4.25bn £-4.32bn £-4.38bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.34bn £20.87bn £21.30bn £21.52bn £21.81bn £22.20bn £22.41bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn £12.94bn £13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.18bn £3.28bn £3.38bn £3.44bn £3.50bn £3.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.04bn £12.47bn £12.97bn

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 29, 2026 00:38
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1: test households that move nations; source the docs
574fc9b 
The property tests now draw a nation for each year as well as for the whole
period, so they check that each payment follows the household's nation in
the year it applies. Invariant 3 now states the £600 per year, and the
whole-scheme £600 only for households in Northern Ireland in both years.
New YAML cases cover moves in both directions and a Northern Ireland input
for 2022 alone.

The docs no longer say suppliers paid every Northern Ireland payment by
31 March 2023: the direction set that as the normal deadline and let
reissued vouchers and cheques run to 30 June 2023. They describe Great
Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment by the fuels GOV.UK names, and say where
the Northern Ireland band A comes from.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r2: describe deadlines and rollout dates as the source…
63febc4 
…s do

The docs and test comments now say the Northern Ireland payments' main
rollout began on 16 January 2023, as GOV.UK's announcement does, and give
the Council Tax Rebate guidance's 30 September 2022 date as the deadline for
the payments the government would reconcile, not a date by which every
household had its payment.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 29, 2026 05:02
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 29, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Hand-off to the UK hub

Head: 63febc4 (ready for review, mergeable).

Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol, three rounds, APPROVE at this head.

  • r1 at 4da9f37: APPROVE with two minor findings, fixed in 574fc9b.
  • r2 delta: APPROVE. Its three wording points are fixed in 63febc4.
  • r3 wording delta: APPROVE, no new findings.
  • Reports: ~/reviews/pe-uk-ni-ctr-afp/review-r{1,2,3}-full.md.

Passed locally:

Pending: CI. Python shards, YAML and Aggregate impact were still running when I posted this; Lint, smoke-import and docs passed. Aggregate impact should show no change, because both payments are nil from 2025-26 to 2031-32.

Depends on: #2726. This branch starts from its head (9d4f759), so land #2726 first; this PR's own change is 9d4f7591b...ni-ctr-afp-oct-2026.

Holds:

  • The Budget-week merge hold.
  • d2161: no automatic agent merges in policyengine-uk until Max rules (Vahid, 28 Oct).
  • d2155: whether the rebate counts by calendar or financial year. This PR follows the current calendar-year convention.

Impact (real runs):

  • 2022: Northern Ireland −£112.6m (no Council Tax Rebate there).
  • 2023: Northern Ireland +£147.7m (Alternative Fuel Payment).
  • No change in Great Britain.
  • Benchmarks: the model's Northern Ireland £600 total covers 90% of DESNZ's delivered payments, and England's rebate is near Annex A's core allocation.

Follow-ups owed (not in this PR; briefs in ~/reviews/pe-uk-ni-ctr-afp/followup-briefs.md):

  • Scotland and Wales £150 for Council Tax Reduction recipients in any band.
  • Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, from a heating-fuel proxy checked against DESNZ.
  • uk-data's band A fill for Northern Ireland.

Axiom parity: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#505, queued.

This was referenced Oct 29, 2026
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Merged via the queue into main with commit 6660b55 Oct 31, 2026
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juaristi22 deleted the ni-ctr-afp-oct-2026 branch October 31, 2026 06:37
juaristi22 pushed a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 31, 2026
María Juaristi @claude
Merge main into the Budget 2026 measures
60a92b4 
Carries the Pension Tax Allowance into step_6_tax_reductions (#2545), last,
and keeps both energy entries in programs.yaml and the HBAI income list
(#2726, #2735). Takes main's Carer's Allowance earnings-limit projection test
(#2700), whose 2027-28 cases replace the 2030-31 case this branch edited, and
cites s. 783AB for the trading allowance on miscellaneous income (#2726).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 31, 2026
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Merge origin/main into fix-2738-gambling-bases
d4fb224 
Brings in #2735 (Northern Ireland Council Tax Rebate and Alternative Fuel
Payment), which merges without conflict.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 31, 2026

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Correction: mutation check

The hand-off comment and this PR's test plan both said all 8 mutants failed both test layers. When I wrote that, M1 to M7 had only run at 4da9f37, against the property tests that 574fc9b then rewrote. Only M8 had run against the rewritten tests.

I reran all 8 on 31 October at the merged head, 63febc4, after a clean baseline: the 33 YAML cases and the 6 targeted property tests passed unmutated. The YAML tests and the property tests each caught all 8, so the claim now holds. Script and output: ~/reviews/pe-uk-ni-ctr-afp/mutation_check_merged.py and mutation_check_merged.out.

Separately, this PR left its two new variables out of fiscal_partition.yaml. #2762 tracks that, and #2763 adds them with no change to calculated amounts.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 31, 2026
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Northern Ireland gets the £150 Council Tax Rebate and misses the £200 Alternative Fuel Payment

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@MaxGhenis @juaristi22