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Release each YAML case's simulation and its file's reformed systems - #2742

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Release each YAML case's simulation and its file's reformed systems#2742
juaristi22 merged 2 commits into
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@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 29, 2026 •
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Fixes #2741

CI's Test / YAML job takes 30 to 45 minutes on its 16 GB arm64 runner and often runs into its 45-minute limit after every test has passed. Memory is the likely cause: locally the run grows to 16.1 GiB, though the CI logs record no memory figures. This PR changes test infrastructure only: no model code, parameters or test expectations.

Cause

policyengine-core's YAML runner (policyengine_core/tools/test_runner.py, 3.33.12) keeps every case's state until the process ends:

  • pytest holds each collected item for the whole session, and each YamlItem keeps simulation and tax_benefit_system after its case has run;
  • _tax_benefit_system_cache keeps a full clone of the system for each combination of dotted parameter inputs (gov.x.y: value) and never evicts one.

PolicyEngine/policyengine-core#569 fixes both in core but is still a draft (open since 2 October; last update 15 October).

Change

The existing pytest_runtest_teardown hook in policyengine_uk/tests/conftest.py now calls release_yaml_case, which:

  • drops each YAML case's references to its simulation and tax_benefit_system once it has run;
  • after a file's last case, drops the cached systems built for dotted inputs. It keeps the systems without dotted inputs, which files share.

It touches nothing for other tests. test_yaml_case_release.py checks each of these. Its first test skips with a note to remove the workaround once core's YamlItem gets its own teardown, and its last fails if core keeps the cache but changes its keys, since the release would then do nothing.

Measured

Each row is one policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy -c policyengine_uk process on a Mac with memory to spare. The UK hub ran one pair back to back and the Sol review ran another. Peak RSS is the process group's, from run_capped.py's monitor, which samples every 0.25 s:

Cases passed Peak RSS Tests (pytest) Exit after summary Whole process
main (2d437eb), hub 5,235 16.1 GiB 168 s 107 s 277 s
this PR (fe22375), hub 5,235 1.65 GiB 179 s 5 s 188 s
main (2d437eb), review 5,235 16.1 GiB 245 s 90 s 418 s
this PR (fe22375), review 5,235 1.62 GiB 269 s 4.5 s 419 s

In the review's pair, the whole-process times come out equal: subtracting pytest and post-summary time leaves about 82 s on main and 146 s on this PR, which the buffered logs do not attribute further. Memory and exit time move the same way in both pairs.

In CI, on the 16 GB arm64 runners, from the timestamps in each job's log:

Test / YAML job Cases passed Session start to summary pytest's own timer Summary to next step Whole step
#2234 at 5dc13b793 (main's conftest) 5,247 20 min 34 s 372 s 13 min 8 s 33 min 53 s
this PR at fe2237541 5,235 7 min 8 s 427 s 6 s 7 min 25 s

#2234's job ran the same morning; its 12 extra cases are its own Housing Benefit tests. On that job, pytest's timer covers under a third of the time between session start and summary, and where the rest goes is still open. Of 38 YAML jobs (first attempts) that started between 23:05Z on 28 Oct and 08:33Z on 29 Oct, 19 passed in 30 to 44 minutes and 7 hit the 45-minute limit; 12 more ended early (#2741).

Invariants

  • The release changes no test outcome: all 5,235 YAML cases pass with and without it.
  • It drops state only from YAML cases that have run, and dotted-input systems only once their file's last case has run.

Checks run

  • test_yaml_case_release.py (5) and test_variable_module_release.py (7): 12 passed.
  • Ruff format and check on both Python files, and git diff --check: passed.
  • This PR's CI Test / YAML job: 5,235 passed.
  • A Sol review at fe22375 approved with nits: the peak files hold MiB, which the first version of this body and the conftest comment read as GB, and the CI cause is an inference. 1325e52 fixes the comment, the changelog fragment and the test docstring; the review found no defect in the release itself. A delta review at 1325e52 approved with three wording nits in this body and The YAML test job likely runs short of memory and hits its 45-minute limit #2741, which both now apply. At 1325e52, test_yaml_case_release.py (5 passed), Ruff and git diff --check pass.

axiom: n/a: test infrastructure only.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 29, 2026 05:40
@MaxGhenis @claude
Release each YAML case's simulation and its file's reformed systems
fe22375 
policyengine-core's YAML runner keeps every case's simulation, and a full
system clone for each combination of dotted parameter inputs, until the
process ends. On main the 5,235 YAML cases peaked at 16.5 GB and took 107 s
to exit; on CI's 16 GB runners the job swaps and runs into its time limit
after its tests pass (#2741, #2698).

The conftest's teardown hook now drops each case's simulation and system,
and a file's dotted-input systems after its last case. The same local run
peaks at 1.7 GB and takes 188 s in all instead of 277. Remove it once
policyengine-core releases the same (PolicyEngine/policyengine-core#569).

Fixes #2741

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
State the YAML run's memory in GiB and the CI cause as likely
1325e52 
Review of fe22375: the peak files hold MiB, so the run peaked at
16.1 GiB on main and 1.65 GiB here, not 16.5 GB and 1.7 GB. The CI logs
record no memory figures, so the comment now gives a memory shortage as
the likely cause of the timeouts rather than a measured one, and adds
this PR's CI YAML step (7 min 25 s).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 29, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2d437ebba6 against head ec8e0b8f92, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,774,885 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,687,092 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 2d437ebba6 uk 2.164.2 (files 4bf0e41411c0), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 8e65bd5371ba 1eac2ca06b91 1982.12s
head #2742 merged into main ec8e0b8f92 uk 2.164.2 (files 4bf0e41411c0), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 8e65bd5371ba 1eac2ca06b91 1921.24s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £334.00bn £349.45bn £365.10bn £383.16bn £397.71bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.88bn £266.66bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.21bn £2.27bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.59bn £26.54bn £26.58bn £26.26bn £25.53bn £24.40bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.73bn £129.50bn £132.99bn £136.66bn £140.43bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.03bn £7.30bn £7.51bn £7.65bn £7.84bn £8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £80.52bn £83.04bn £85.11bn £86.31bn £87.90bn £88.58bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.89bn £9.24bn £9.48bn £9.72bn £9.99bn £10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.31bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.82bn £0.84bn £0.86bn £0.88bn £0.90bn £0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.35bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.57bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.59bn £0.59bn £0.57bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.62bn £3.75bn £3.83bn £3.92bn £4.01bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.38bn £2.44bn £2.51bn £2.56bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,486k 1,480k 1,474k 1,455k 1,453k 1,455k 1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,357k 6,349k 6,350k 6,318k 6,307k 6,299k 6,253k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,245k 1,246k 1,229k 1,229k 1,229k 1,232k
Council Tax Reduction 3,176k 3,195k 3,200k 3,215k 3,224k 3,235k 3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,044k 1,046k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 355k 353k 351k 340k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,025k 1,021k 1,022k 1,008k 1,005k 991k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 804k 806k 809k 814k 814k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,074k 1,076k 1,079k 1,089k 1,090k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £935.14bn £979.55bn £1,013.85bn £1,052.14bn £1,089.13bn £1,122.37bn
Government spending £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.63bn † £391.59bn † £428.62bn † £454.08bn † £484.61bn † £512.85bn † £538.35bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £935.14bn £979.55bn £1,013.85bn £1,052.14bn £1,089.13bn £1,122.37bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.87bn £549.93bn £573.92bn £598.90bn £624.26bn £645.90bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.74bn £541.54bn £564.86bn £589.61bn £614.72bn £636.09bn
gov_spending £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
household_benefits £529.37bn † £543.55bn † £550.93bn † £559.76bn † £567.52bn † £576.28bn † £584.02bn †
gov_balance £362.63bn † £391.59bn † £428.62bn † £454.08bn † £484.61bn † £512.85bn † £538.35bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.68bn † £1,685.25bn † £1,716.89bn † £1,749.83bn † £1,781.12bn † £1,819.78bn † £1,862.63bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.57bn £1,497.73bn £1,532.81bn £1,567.21bn £1,600.01bn £1,638.04bn £1,679.21bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.6% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.3% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.9% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.5% 14.0% 13.9% 14.0% 13.9% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.1% 22.0% 22.5% 22.7% 23.0% 23.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.2% 32.4% 32.5% 33.0% 33.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.9% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.0% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.6% 13.1% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.3% 16.3% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 23.4% 23.3% 22.9% 22.8% 22.9% 23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.3% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.7% 13.9% 13.9% 13.8% 13.9% 14.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.1% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,278k 10,837k 11,403k 11,358k 11,478k 11,506k 11,643k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,688k 3,332k 3,496k 3,437k 3,477k 3,499k 3,545k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,965k 5,921k 6,308k 6,354k 6,417k 6,426k 6,517k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,584k 1,599k 1,568k 1,583k 1,580k 1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,662k 15,296k 15,679k 15,862k 16,047k 16,331k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,689k 4,832k 4,863k 4,898k 4,986k 5,125k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,491k 8,965k 9,325k 9,464k 9,549k 9,669k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,482k 1,500k 1,491k 1,500k 1,513k 1,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,750k 11,332k 11,389k 11,348k 11,358k 11,410k 11,702k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,872k 3,504k 3,496k 3,434k 3,431k 3,451k 3,577k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,159k 6,103k 6,301k 6,349k 6,363k 6,388k 6,540k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,720k 1,724k 1,592k 1,565k 1,563k 1,571k 1,585k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,849k 14,583k 14,728k 14,809k 14,885k 15,005k 15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,942k 4,664k 4,660k 4,663k 4,681k 4,702k 4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,460k 8,679k 8,821k 8,877k 8,964k 9,056k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,482k 1,459k 1,389k 1,325k 1,327k 1,340k 1,366k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3080 0.3057 0.3063 0.3062 0.3068 0.3073 0.3089
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £17,895 † £17,904 † £18,146 † £18,308 † £18,581 † £18,739 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,939 † £28,874 † £28,683 † £29,083 † £29,354 † £29,679 † £30,165 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,320 † £35,455 † £36,108 † £36,626 † £37,218 † £37,722 † £38,220 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,933 † £40,603 † £41,873 † £42,783 † £43,423 † £43,928 † £44,548 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,240 † £45,443 † £45,787 † £46,995 † £47,729 † £48,921 † £50,229 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,900 † £49,126 † £50,887 † £51,727 † £52,600 † £54,202 † £55,195 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,684 † £56,509 † £57,443 † £57,966 † £59,083 † £59,211 † £60,667 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,789 † £70,704 † £71,779 † £73,356 † £73,945 † £75,356 † £77,241 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £80,992 † £82,907 † £84,246 † £85,584 † £87,169 † £89,597 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,005 † £120,262 † £122,221 † £124,681 † £126,775 † £129,108 † £131,486 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.64bn £6.88bn £7.04bn £7.26bn £7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.23bn £4.43bn £4.70bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.80bn £-3.92bn £-3.98bn £-4.10bn £-4.17bn £-4.21bn £-1.96bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.39bn £-1.30bn £-1.17bn £-1.06bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.37bn £-20.88bn £-21.32bn £-21.52bn £-21.86bn £-22.25bn £-22.42bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.73bn £12.03bn £12.30bn £12.61bn £13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.18bn £-3.25bn £-3.34bn £-3.44bn £-3.48bn £-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-7.99bn £-8.14bn £-8.42bn £-8.55bn £-8.89bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.80bn £7.01bn £7.21bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.16bn £-4.25bn £-4.32bn £-4.38bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.34bn £20.87bn £21.30bn £21.52bn £21.81bn £22.20bn £22.41bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn £12.94bn £13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.18bn £3.28bn £3.38bn £3.44bn £3.50bn £3.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.04bn £12.47bn £12.97bn

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 29, 2026 11:38
@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 30, 2026

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This would help the queue running now. In merge-queue run 41082735340, the YAML job's runner received a shutdown signal at 16:07Z. No test failed, but Test / Result failed, and #2727 and #2735 left the queue.

The log stopped after winter_fuel_payment_charge/charge_parameters.yaml. A passing YAML job goes quiet at the same line: #2279's job printed nothing for 1,484 seconds there, then 1,408 more before its next step, and took 55m27s in all. At this PR's head the YAML job took 8m24s. The CI logs record no memory figures, so memory stays the likely cause, not a measured one.

This PR changes test infrastructure only: no model code, parameters or expected values. Its checks pass at 1325e52ff, and two GPT-6.1 Sol reviews approved it, but it has had no human review. @juaristi22, could you review it when you have a moment?

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MaxGhenis requested a review from juaristi22 October 30, 2026 17:21
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 30, 2026

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Thanks for getting #2723, #2726 and #2545 through today. The merge queue ran Code changes 32 times today for about 230 job-hours, and Test / YAML passed 5 times, taking 62 to 74 minutes against its 75-minute limit.

#2700 left the queue at 23:09Z with no failed case. Its YAML job printed 5327 passed at 22:51Z, then stayed silent until the limit cancelled it.

On current main (7ed52038a), one local process over the YAML tree peaks at 16.5 GiB, against the runners' 16 GB. With this PR merged in, the same 5,331 cases pass at 1.61 GiB, and the process finishes in 330 s against 410 s. The CI logs record no memory figures, so I can't state the runners' own peak.

This PR merges cleanly with main. @juaristi22, could it go into the queue ahead of #2700 and #2727?

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@juaristi22
juaristi22 added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 31, 2026
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 31, 2026
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Merged via the queue into main with commit b7ea67d Oct 31, 2026
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juaristi22 deleted the ci-yaml-memory branch October 31, 2026 01:52
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The YAML test job likely runs short of memory and hits its 45-minute limit

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@MaxGhenis @juaristi22