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Classify the Budget helper variables in the fiscal partition - #2763

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Classify the Budget helper variables in the fiscal partition#2763
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 31, 2026

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Fixes #2762

What and why

policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml names the heads that make up each total and the variables that must never count alongside them. Eight helpers from recent changes had no entry. Older helpers without an entry stay out of this PR.

  • Income tax. miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction, uses_trading_allowance, miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance and income_not_otherwise_charged go in exclusions as assessments.
  • Gambling duty. machine_games_standard_rate_higher_stake_net_takings goes in exclusions as a component.
  • Spending. carers_allowance_weekly_earnings_above_limit, ebr_alternative_fuel_payment and monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment sit inside spending heads. The file had no place for those, so a new spending_exclusions section holds them, with the same fields as exclusions.

The reader now loads spending_exclusions and refuses an entry that names anything but a spending head. This changes no calculated amount: eight households in 2023, 2026, 2027 and 2030 give the same gov_tax, gov_spending and household_net_income as main.

The PR also adds tests that #2719 and #2735 left open:

  • In 2026, trade receipts of £2,000 use the whole £1,000 trading allowance, so miscellaneous income gets no relief. In 2027 the £3,000 allowance leaves £1,000 of relief for that income (trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income.yaml).
  • The Pension Tax Allowance comes last in Step 6, and every reduction sees the ones before it.
  • The reductions stay within Step 5 tax when the allowance and finance cost relief apply together, including where tax runs out.
  • Calculating the two variables in either order returns the same amounts. These three sit in test_income_tax_step_6_step_7_properties.py.

Two comments change: the trading allowance parameter now says the model shares the allowance between both sources, and a Carer's Allowance test no longer quotes a limit it computes.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/aggregate_impact/test_aggregate_impact_partition.py::test_budget_and_energy_support_variables_have_fiscal_classifications

axiom: n/a: this classifies variables for measurement and changes no rule.

Invariants

  • Each named helper appears exactly once across heads and both exclusion sections.
  • No head variable also appears as an exclusion, and no variable appears twice across the exclusion sections.
  • Every spending_exclusions entry names a known variable and a spending head, has a kind of component or assessment, and carries a note. The reader refuses an entry with a head outside spending_heads, or a variable that is itself a head.

Test plan

Each file ran on its own at 6ca062e68, without survey data, under a 4 GB memory cap.

File Result
tests/aggregate_impact/test_aggregate_impact_partition.py 17 passed
The same file with main's fiscal_partition.yaml 6 failed, 11 passed
tests/aggregate_impact/test_aggregate_impact_compare.py, test_aggregate_impact_data_mode.py 133 and 4 passed
tests/test_fiscal_partition.py 43 passed
tests/test_income_tax_step_6_step_7_properties.py 21 passed
tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income.yaml 2 passed

Lint passes: ruff 0.17.2 format --check and check on the changed Python files, and git diff --check.

  • For policy changes: not applicable. The YAML cases read the allowance from its parameter, whose sources sit in trading_allowance.yaml.
  • make format
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/2762.fixed.md

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 31, 2026 05:26
@MaxGhenis @claude
Classify the Budget helpers in the fiscal partition
b30214d 
List the tax helpers among the exclusions and give spending heads their own
section for components. Add tests for the shared trading allowance in 2027,
and for Step 6 with the Pension Tax Allowance and finance cost relief applying
together.

Fixes #2762

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Load spending exclusions in the partition reader
6ca062e 
Read the new section as exclusions are read, and refuse an entry whose head
isn't a spending head.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 31, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2da212abcf against head 0efb4bdde7, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 2da212abcf uk 2.170.0 (files e654eb5f6f55), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 77aac721ac5e 7cb61324a46b 2056.54s
head #2763 merged into main 0efb4bdde7 uk 2.170.0 (files b5d3a3e5bf62), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 77aac721ac5e 3bcfb3473960 2060.17s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £294.46bn £315.23bn £335.83bn £351.28bn £366.96bn £385.36bn £400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.70bn £54.14bn £56.13bn £57.73bn £59.76bn £61.64bn £63.51bn
National Insurance (employer) £148.71bn £155.37bn £160.88bn £165.09bn £172.06bn £177.36bn £182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.60bn £13.15bn £13.60bn £14.11bn £14.67bn £15.24bn £15.80bn
Student loan repayments £7.82bn £8.13bn £8.39bn £8.58bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £256.87bn £266.33bn £272.70bn £278.97bn £285.24bn £291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.01bn £2.09bn £2.14bn £2.20bn £2.26bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.71bn £24.13bn £26.00bn £26.83bn £26.51bn £25.78bn £24.63bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.40bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.45bn
Council tax £49.21bn £52.16bn £54.89bn £57.95bn £61.16bn £64.47bn £67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £36.20bn £38.00bn £39.46bn £42.27bn £43.25bn £44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.88bn £7.32bn £7.66bn £8.06bn £8.47bn £8.91bn £9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.72bn £4.57bn £5.29bn £6.03bn £6.37bn £6.92bn £7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.68bn £125.92bn £126.73bn £129.50bn £132.99bn £136.66bn £140.43bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.03bn £7.29bn £7.48bn £7.60bn £7.84bn £8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.85bn £1.79bn £1.77bn £1.78bn £1.78bn £1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.48bn £80.52bn £82.95bn £84.96bn £86.11bn £87.61bn £88.21bn
Housing Benefit £8.56bn £8.89bn £9.23bn £9.46bn £9.69bn £9.99bn £10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.20bn £2.31bn £2.45bn £2.58bn £2.72bn £2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.82bn £0.84bn £0.86bn £0.88bn £0.90bn £0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.37bn £5.56bn £5.69bn £5.82bn £5.95bn £6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.95bn £28.03bn £29.05bn £30.09bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.79bn £8.07bn £8.36bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.95bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.03bn £9.36bn £9.69bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.38bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.66bn £4.83bn £5.00bn £5.11bn £5.27bn £5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.68bn £0.69bn £0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.19bn £16.82bn £17.39bn £18.00bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.41bn £3.54bn £3.62bn £3.70bn £3.78bn £3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.16bn £1.20bn £1.23bn £1.26bn £1.29bn £1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.59bn £3.71bn £3.78bn £3.86bn £3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.06bn £2.22bn £2.29bn £2.37bn £2.43bn £2.48bn £2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.89bn £204.30bn £204.56bn £204.91bn £205.34bn £205.85bn £206.35bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.10bn £25.14bn £25.18bn £25.23bn £25.30bn £25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Household Energy Payment £0.00bn £2.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,264k 11,145k 10,819k 10,700k 10,723k 10,750k 10,776k
Pension Credit 1,486k 1,480k 1,472k 1,452k 1,450k 1,455k 1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,844k 7,783k 7,473k 7,375k 7,391k 7,409k 7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 802k 800k 797k 799k 801k 802k
Universal Credit 6,342k 6,347k 6,336k 6,297k 6,292k 6,271k 6,223k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,245k 1,244k 1,227k 1,227k 1,229k 1,232k
Council Tax Reduction 3,176k 3,195k 3,200k 3,214k 3,224k 3,235k 3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 720k 721k 722k 724k 726k 728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,567k 3,575k 3,579k 3,585k 3,593k 3,602k 3,611k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,294k 1,296k 1,298k 1,300k 1,304k 1,307k
Attendance Allowance 1,695k 1,698k 1,700k 1,703k 1,707k 1,711k 1,715k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,037k 1,038k 1,040k 1,042k 1,060k 1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 137k 138k 138k 138k 139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 94k 94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,123k 8,120k 8,120k 8,130k 8,145k 8,161k 8,178k
Scottish Child Payment 351k 352k 352k 353k 350k 348k 337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 200k 200k 201k 201k 201k 202k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 333k 333k 334k 334k 335k 336k 337k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 182k 182k 183k 183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,043k 1,027k 1,014k 1,009k 1,011k 1,009k 993k
Extended childcare entitlement 795k 800k 796k 797k 798k 798k 792k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,072k 1,072k 1,073k 1,076k 1,079k 1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 154k 155k 155k 150k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 99k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 12k 12k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Household Energy Payment 0k 21,065k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.90bn
Government spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.73bn † £456.41bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £892.00bn £934.66bn £980.50bn £1,015.93bn £1,054.24bn £1,091.56bn £1,124.90bn
household_tax £491.97bn £520.41bn £551.21bn £576.01bn £601.00bn £626.70bn £648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.15bn £512.28bn £542.82bn £566.95bn £591.72bn £617.16bn £638.62bn
gov_spending £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
household_benefits £529.38bn † £545.66bn † £550.77bn † £559.52bn † £567.20bn † £575.96bn † £583.61bn †
gov_balance £362.62bn † £389.00bn † £429.73bn † £456.41bn † £487.04bn † £515.61bn † £541.29bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,637.96bn £1,702.77bn £1,757.35bn £1,806.41bn £1,855.97bn £1,912.43bn £1,970.44bn
Household net income £1,636.69bn † £1,687.82bn † £1,715.46bn † £1,747.50bn † £1,778.70bn † £1,817.02bn † £1,859.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,449.57bn £1,499.83bn £1,530.87bn £1,565.18bn £1,597.89bn £1,635.60bn £1,676.62bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,245k 69,383k 69,473k 69,592k 69,738k 69,912k 70,080k
Benefit units 35,110k 35,181k 35,226k 35,286k 35,360k 35,449k 35,534k
Households 31,046k 31,108k 31,149k 31,201k 31,267k 31,345k 31,420k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.3% 15.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.7% 22.1% 23.3% 22.9% 23.1% 23.2% 23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.1% 13.8% 14.7% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8% 15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.4% 14.0% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 22.0% 22.6% 22.9% 23.1% 23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.3% 32.3% 32.5% 32.9% 33.4% 34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.8% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.3% 13.4% 13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.0% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.3% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.9% 22.9% 23.3% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.1% 14.6% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.5% 14.0% 13.9% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9% 13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 21.0% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 31.1% 31.2% 31.0% 31.1% 31.2% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.4% 12.2% 11.7% 11.7% 11.8% 12.0%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,278k 10,779k 11,402k 11,365k 11,475k 11,513k 11,651k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,688k 3,314k 3,496k 3,445k 3,480k 3,502k 3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,965k 5,893k 6,308k 6,362k 6,420k 6,430k 6,521k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,624k 1,572k 1,598k 1,559k 1,575k 1,580k 1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,944k 14,600k 15,310k 15,721k 15,936k 16,141k 16,426k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,975k 4,682k 4,837k 4,888k 4,945k 5,040k 5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,463k 8,461k 8,971k 9,344k 9,491k 9,584k 9,706k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,506k 1,457k 1,502k 1,490k 1,500k 1,517k 1,542k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,750k 11,084k 11,388k 11,364k 11,416k 11,415k 11,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,872k 3,423k 3,496k 3,445k 3,466k 3,454k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,159k 6,013k 6,301k 6,362k 6,389k 6,389k 6,521k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,720k 1,648k 1,590k 1,557k 1,562k 1,572k 1,581k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,849k 14,552k 14,775k 14,809k 14,874k 15,014k 15,234k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,942k 4,660k 4,673k 4,663k 4,679k 4,707k 4,806k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,426k 8,440k 8,711k 8,823k 8,873k 8,967k 9,062k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,482k 1,452k 1,391k 1,323k 1,322k 1,339k 1,365k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3080 0.3052 0.3058 0.3058 0.3063 0.3069 0.3085
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,681 † £17,997 † £17,915 † £18,152 † £18,307 † £18,531 † £18,717 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,939 † £29,023 † £28,711 † £29,013 † £29,276 † £29,691 † £30,151 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,320 † £35,485 † £36,073 † £36,611 † £37,197 † £37,737 † £38,187 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,933 † £40,687 † £41,724 † £42,727 † £43,334 † £44,132 † £44,434 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,239 † £45,567 † £46,012 † £46,960 † £47,714 † £48,584 † £50,279 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,927 † £49,210 † £50,893 † £51,939 † £52,942 † £53,942 † £54,680 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £55,662 † £56,571 † £57,442 † £57,670 † £58,730 † £59,651 † £61,082 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,789 † £70,803 † £71,858 † £73,466 † £73,880 † £75,317 † £77,178 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £78,890 † £81,013 † £80,861 † £82,646 † £85,464 † £86,946 † £89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,005 † £120,339 † £124,742 † £126,632 † £125,971 † £128,600 † £130,938 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.41bn £6.66bn £6.63bn £6.85bn £7.03bn £7.25bn £7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.61bn £3.87bn £4.00bn £4.22bn £4.44bn £4.71bn £4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.80bn £-3.92bn £-3.98bn £-4.04bn £-4.10bn £-4.23bn £-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.55bn £-1.38bn £-1.30bn £-1.18bn £-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.77bn £-21.32bn £-21.75bn £-21.99bn £-22.34bn £-22.75bn £-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.89bn £11.30bn £11.71bn £12.01bn £12.31bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.71bn £26.63bn £27.24bn £27.87bn £28.50bn £29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.41bn £3.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.06bn £-3.18bn £-3.26bn £-3.35bn £-3.44bn £-3.49bn £-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.78bn £-8.01bn £-8.24bn £-8.47bn £-8.82bn £-8.55bn £-8.89bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.55bn £6.86bn £6.79bn £7.00bn £7.20bn £7.44bn £7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.61bn £3.92bn £4.01bn £4.23bn £4.45bn £4.72bn £4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.93bn £-4.07bn £-4.13bn £-4.18bn £-4.22bn £-4.40bn £-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.94bn £1.76bn £1.65bn £1.52bn £1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.74bn £21.31bn £21.78bn £22.04bn £22.37bn £22.78bn £22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.15bn £11.63bn £12.00bn £12.29bn £12.61bn suppressed suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.51bn £26.42bn £27.03bn £27.65bn £28.28bn £28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.90bn £3.15bn £3.22bn £3.42bn £3.62bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.06bn £3.19bn £3.28bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.49bn £3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.17bn £11.28bn £11.60bn £12.04bn £12.47bn £12.97bn

This was referenced Oct 31, 2026
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Classify the Budget's new helper variables in the fiscal partition

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