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…public-use file Replicates P60-290's SPM and official toplines from pppub26.csv with person weights, then recomputes 2025 SPM poverty with national thresholds held at 2024 times CPI-U (and C-CPI-U): 12.3 percent for all people, 12.3 for children, 14.7 for people 65 and over, so threshold growth beyond prices accounts for +0.8, +1.1 and +0.7 points of the published rates. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…plicate-weight standard errors Add state_age_anchored.py, which joins the 2026 ASEC household file for state, computes published and anchored 2025 SPM poverty for the 51 states and for detailed age groups, and estimates standard errors from the 160 replicate weights. Outputs in state_age_results.json and by_state.csv. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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What Census reported for 2025 (headline, age, tenure, states), how BLS builds the SPM thresholds, and the 2025 rates with thresholds held at 2024 values grown by CPI-U, recomputed from the 2026 CPS ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors. Two state tile maps in the slides' style, a photographic cover, a source link for every claim, and a replication section linking the microdata, the BLS and Census tables, and the scripts in PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper#8. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds --logo to state_tile_map.py, rendering the teal wordmark bottom-right opposite the source line, and notes it in the README. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis
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* Add the 2025 SPM poverty recap post What Census reported for 2025 (headline, age, tenure, states), how BLS builds the SPM thresholds, and the 2025 rates with thresholds held at 2024 values grown by CPI-U, recomputed from the 2026 CPS ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors. Two state tile maps in the slides' style, a photographic cover, a source link for every claim, and a replication section linking the microdata, the BLS and Census tables, and the scripts in PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper#8. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> * 2025 SPM post: title, subtitle, 2024 for every age row, watermarked maps, calculator CTA - Title spells out the Supplemental Poverty Measure; new subtitle; dated September 18. - The by-age table now has 2024 for the finer age groups, computed from the 2025 CPS ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors, marked and explained in a footnote (Census's restated figures stay for the four published groups). - Both state maps regenerated with the PolicyEngine wordmark. - Inline link to the SPM threshold calculator where Census adapts the threshold to each family; closing paragraph links the calculator and its methods paper, followed by a CTA button. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> * By-age table: standard errors on every 2024 cell Census rows convert Table 4's 90 percent margins of error to standard errors; the footnote says so. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> * 2025 SPM post: waterfall chart; scripts and replication moved to footnotes Adds the 2024-to-2025 waterfall (resources step, threshold step) after the anchored table. The body no longer discusses scripts, files or the repository; the anchoring mechanics, the replication check and the code list live in footnotes, and the Replication section is folded into them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Date the post at its publication time so it shows September 18 in every time zone The article page parses a bare date as UTC midnight and shows the day before in US time zones; a wall-clock timestamp, as 109 other posts use, parses as local time. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Adds
analysis/asec-2026-anchored-thresholds/: a script that replicates the P60-290 SPM and official toplines from the 2026 CPS ASEC public-use person file and recomputes 2025 SPM poverty with the national thresholds held at their 2024 values times CPI-U (and, as a variant, C-CPI-U), plus the outputs and a README with the method and results.Headline: at 2024 thresholds plus CPI-U, 2025 SPM poverty is 12.3 percent for all people (−0.7 vs 2024), 12.3 for children (−1.2) and 14.7 for people 65 and over (−0.4); threshold growth beyond prices adds +0.8, +1.1 and +0.7 points to reach the published 13.1 / 13.4 / 15.4.
No change to the paper, its frozen data or the prediction record.
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