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The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) thresholds from spending on basic needs. The U.S. Census Bureau adjusts them for family composition and local housing costs. We reconstruct national thresholds from public Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey data and compare four projection rules. We evaluate retrospective projections and a pre-committed 2025 nowcast, then project thresholds through 2035 by advancing the CE and American Community Survey (ACS) windows. We specify prices, real spending, and rents for the future scenarios and evaluate prospective accuracy for 2025 only.
python3 -B scripts/check_paper.py
python3 -B -m unittest discover -s tests -v
quarto render --to html
quarto render --to pdfThe guard and table generators use the Python standard library. Quarto
1.9.36 and TeX Live 2026 render the HTML and PDF to _output/paper/.
Clone with full tag history and check out the desired source commit.
The guard checks input hashes and forecast registrations, generates tables
and evaluation JSON in temporary storage, and compares outputs with the
recorded files. The tests check that input corruption fails verification
without changing source bytes.
The experiment replay guide supplies commands, source links, and input requirements for the CE and ACS estimators. The data provenance identifies each experimental collection. The forecast record provides the registration evidence and supporting evaluations. These files distinguish table verification from replication of the underlying survey estimates.
SPM Calculator provides
standalone unit calculations, CE replication, rolling forecasts, and adapters
for PolicyEngine, Microcosm, and the Axiom rules engine. The paper and calculator
consume the same rolling projection artifact: version 1.0.0 release candidate
at commit 78bae15f76152c6076dd909a09f6b63dc2ec8c34, with content digest
3d86d5c4c0423480e6b69b75d222ffa4a7a2639e4094df5ba2504af01be17173.
The 2019–2025 retrospective experiment uses a separate implementation:
version 0.5.0 at commit
0d7fa0d77b0a88064ab7b9fe70557309b5f7901f.
The September 11 prediction predicts a 2025 SPM poverty rate of 13.2 percent overall, 14.3 percent for children, and 14.6 percent for people 65 and over. The registration precedes the Census release scheduled for September 15, 2026. It adds the modeled 2024-to-2025 change to Census's 2024 rate. These development estimates remain provisional pending a comparison on the qualified model and population release. The threshold-method results do not depend on them. The prediction's checksum and timestamp proof accompany the file; any subsequent estimate receives its own dated record.
Census published the 2025 rates on September 15: 13.1 percent overall,
13.4 percent for children, and 15.4 percent for people 65 and over. The
dated grade
records the comparison, and a rerun on the released runtime reproduced the
registered changes, so the registration needs no amendment. The code that
separates each miss into a threshold effect and a resource effect is in
analysis/prediction-grade-2025.
Code in this repository is released under the MIT License. Original text and figures are released under CC BY 4.0 with attribution to PolicyEngine. Third-party data and materials keep their own terms.