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Add the 2025 SPM poverty recap post - #1208
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MaxGhenis
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What Census reported for 2025 (headline, age, tenure, states), how BLS builds the SPM thresholds, and the 2025 rates with thresholds held at 2024 values grown by CPI-U, recomputed from the 2026 CPS ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors. Two state tile maps in the slides' style, a photographic cover, a source link for every claim, and a replication section linking the microdata, the BLS and Census tables, and the scripts in PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper#8. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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This was referenced Sep 18, 2026
…aps, calculator CTA - Title spells out the Supplemental Poverty Measure; new subtitle; dated September 18. - The by-age table now has 2024 for the finer age groups, computed from the 2025 CPS ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors, marked and explained in a footnote (Census's restated figures stay for the four published groups). - Both state maps regenerated with the PolicyEngine wordmark. - Inline link to the SPM threshold calculator where Census adapts the threshold to each family; closing paragraph links the calculator and its methods paper, followed by a CTA button. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Census rows convert Table 4's 90 percent margins of error to standard errors; the footnote says so. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…notes Adds the 2024-to-2025 waterfall (resources step, threshold step) after the anchored table. The body no longer discusses scripts, files or the repository; the anchoring mechanics, the replication check and the code list live in footnotes, and the Replication section is folded into them. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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September 18, 2026 22:38
…ry time zone The article page parses a bare date as UTC midnight and shows the day before in US time zones; a wall-clock timestamp, as 109 other posts use, parses as local time. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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main: this PR now carries only the recap post. The graded prediction post and the spm-calculator announcement stay in #1202 and ship separately; nothing here links to them.Research post
2025 SPM poverty: what Census reported, and what threshold growth did to it(slug2025-spm-poverty-at-2024-thresholds): the P60-290 headline numbers; how BLS builds the SPM thresholds (five years of CE data lagged a year, families with children converted to the two-adult two-child reference unit, 82 percent of 1.2 x the 47th to 53rd percentile average with tenure-specific shelter and utilities, the FCSUti price index) and how Census adapts them (equivalence scale, ACS rent adjustment); rates by detailed age with replicate-weight standard errors, by housing tenure, and by state (Census Table 17 three-year averages as a tile map in the slides' style); then the anchored recomputation from the 2026 CPS ASEC public-use file with thresholds held at 2024 x CPI-U (12.31 / 12.31 / 11.55 / 14.66; threshold effect 0.80 all, 1.08 children; C-CPI-U variant), the effect by age, tenure and state (second tile map), and a replication section. Every factual claim links its source (Census report, press release and tables; BLS methodology, correction notice, 2025 page and workbook; SPM technical documentation; IPUMS replicate-weight notes; the scripts in PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper#8). Footnotes the Table 11 renter threshold discrepancy reported to Census.Files: article
app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-at-2024-thresholds.md; assets underapp/public/assets/posts/2025-spm-poverty-at-2024-thresholds/(cover.webp,state-spm-2023-2025.png,state-threshold-effect.png); oneposts.jsonentry in the file's existing compact format.Publish checklist: merge #1209 (post dates) and PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper#8 (script links) first. A held email to outside readers links this slug.
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Update, Sep 18 (per Max): title spells out the Supplemental Poverty Measure; new subtitle; dated at publication time. The by-age table has 2024 for every row (finer groups from the 2025 ASEC public-use file with replicate-weight standard errors; Census rows carry Table 4 margins of error converted to standard errors). Both state maps carry the PolicyEngine wordmark, and a 2024-to-2025 waterfall (resources step, threshold step) follows the anchored table. Scripts, files and the replication check moved from the body into footnotes; the Replication section is folded into them. The post links the SPM threshold calculator inline and closes with the calculator, its methods paper and a CTA button. Chart code lives in spm-threshold-paper #8.