[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2724
Fixes #2725

What and why

The review of #2719 (Autumn Budget 2026 baseline) found two pre-existing bugs. This PR fixes them outside #2719 and together, so one merge-queue pass covers both. It is not for merging during the Budget-week hold.

A third item from that review, Carer's Allowance penny rounding at the earnings limit, already has a more thorough fix in open draft #2543 (issue #2541). #2543 stores the limit in pence and applies reg. 5 per step, while the review's patch used a float tolerance, so this PR does not repeat it.

1. The 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI income (#2724)

Bug. energy_bills_rebate (the Energy Bills Support Scheme credit plus the £150 Council Tax Rebate) counted in household_net_income and gov_spending, but not in hbai_household_net_income, the income behind the poverty statistics. HBAI counts both. The HBAI quality and methodology report for FYE 2023 puts the EBSS (£400, or £600 in Northern Ireland) and the £150 Council Tax Rebate under miscellaneous income, not state support, and DWP imputes receipt because the FRS did not ask about them.

No double counting. The FRS fields behind miscellaneous_income in policyengine-uk-data (frs.py: current odd-job income oddjob.ojamt, plus allpay2, royyr2–royyr4, chamtern and chamttst) hold no rebate, so adding the rebate counts it once. (allpay2 reaching both miscellaneous_income and private_transfer_income is a separate, known overlap, policyengine-uk-data#627.) It stays out of hbai_benefits, which HBAI keeps for state support.

A second bug: the model paid the Council Tax Rebate again in 2023-24. council_tax_rebate/amount.yaml set £150 from 1 January 2022 to 1 October 2023. The model reads fiscal-year parameters at 30 April, so it paid £150 in 2022-23 and again in 2023-24. The existing test case expected £150 in 2023. Counting the rebate in HBAI income would have counted that second payment too. The billing authority guidance makes it a one-off: households qualified on their band on 1 April 2022, and billing authorities made every payment by 30 September 2022 (paragraphs 7, 14 and 19). The parameter is now £150 from 2022-04-01 to 2022-09-30 and zero otherwise.

Timing: the model keeps the calendar-year sum. HBAI is a financial-year statistic and counts the whole EBSS in FYE 2023. The model sums the monthly credit by calendar year (#2103's convention): £199 in 2022 and £201 in 2023 for a Great Britain household on the scheme throughout. The model reads fiscal-year parameters at 30 April, so model year 2022 is 2022-23, and HBAI income holds £349 there (with the Council Tax Rebate) and £201 in 2023-24, where DWP counts £550 in 2022-23. household_net_income, gov_spending and HBAI income all use this one figure. Moving the credit to financial years would change all three together. epg_subsidy sums the Energy Price Guarantee by calendar year the same way, and counts in household net income and government spending but not in HBAI income. This PR leaves the timing of both alone; it is a separate methodology question (see Follow-ups). The docs page states the difference.

The aggregate-impact report protects it as a head. energy_bills_rebate is a head of the fiscal partition. When it comes from fewer than 10 records, the report suppresses it and rebuilds HBAI income without it (hbai_holds_any and _hbai_without in measure.py read the HBAI component list), so HBAI income, its deciles, poverty and inequality never include it. Because HBAI adds the head itself, the report publishes no second figure for the same payments.

Changes.

• energy_bills_rebate added to HBAI_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME_ADDS, next to the Warm Home Discount.
• council_tax_rebate/amount.yaml now covers 2022-23 only.
• The existing CTR test case moves from 2023 to 2022. New cases cover 2021 and 2023 (bands A, D and E), and HBAI income: 2022 and 2023 in Great Britain, Northern Ireland's January 2023 credit, and the rebate outside hbai_benefits.
• The docs page cost-of-living-payments.md now describes the monthly EBSS, the 2022-23-only CTR, HBAI's treatment and the calendar-year timing. It previously described a flat £200 credit.

2. The trading allowance on Chapter 8 miscellaneous income (#2725)

Bug. The trading allowance covers "relevant income": trade receipts plus "miscellaneous income" (ITTOIA 2005 s. 783AC). The model applied it to trades only.

Law. These are from ITTOIA 2005 Part 6A Chapter 1.

• s. 783AB: miscellaneous income is income chargeable under Part 5 Chapter 8 (income not otherwise charged, s. 687), before expenses, excluding rent-a-room receipts. s. 688(2)(za) makes the Chapter 8 charge subject to Part 6A.
• s. 783AE, s. 783AG: full relief. With relevant income within the allowance, the Act treats the miscellaneous income less its expenses as nil.
• s. 783AJ, s. 783AK: partial relief, by election (s. 783AM). The miscellaneous income less its share of the allowance is chargeable. The trade and miscellaneous shares add up to the allowance, and the individual chooses the split (s. 783AK(3)). A trade's step 2 can't go negative (s. 783AK(4)) and the miscellaneous share can't create a loss (s. 783AK(5)).
• s. 783AL, s. 783AM: full relief applies unless the individual elects out of it (s. 783AL), and partial relief needs an election (s. 783AM; s. 783AH(c)). Either way, the treatment covers the relevant income as a whole.

Royalties, other Part 5 chapters, and the SPI's benefits and termination payments are in miscellaneous_income but are not Chapter 8 income, so they get no allowance.

Design.

• New input income_not_otherwise_charged (person, year): the Chapter 8 part of miscellaneous_income. It is optional and defaults to zero, because no dataset separates it yet (see Follow-ups). The model caps it at miscellaneous_income, and it never adds to it.
• New helper utils/trading_allowance.py::trading_allowance_reliefs makes one decision for the whole relevant income and returns (trade_relief, miscellaneous_relief).
  • The trade side is exactly the existing trading_allowance_deduction logic, unchanged when there is no Chapter 8 income.
  • The miscellaneous income gets the part of the allowance that the trade receipts leave. Trade-first allocation keeps Class 4 as low as it can be.
  • Every valid split leaves the same trade plus miscellaneous income: relevant income less the allowance. Two reliefs read the trade's share alone, so a smaller trade share can charge less income tax this year. The model keeps trade-first in both cases. Trade-first leaves losses for later years and keeps Class 4 profits lower, but it does not always minimise the year's income tax and Class 4 together.
    • Losses brought forward (loss_relief, ITA 2007 s. 83) absorb the trade profit a smaller share leaves, but that uses up loss which would otherwise carry forward against later profits of the trade (s. 84). YAML Case 14 pins this: £3,606 against £3,486 under the £200/£800 split, which would use £600 of the loss.
    • Pension contributions above relevant UK earnings (FA 2004 s. 189) get more relief when the trade keeps more profit, because trade profit counts towards those earnings and miscellaneous income does not. YAML Case 15 pins this: trade-first gives relief on £19,000 of £20,000 contributions, £3,486 income tax and £385.80 Class 4. Giving the casual income the whole allowance would give £20,000, £3,286 and £445.80 under the same rules.
  • With unknown gross receipts, the helper takes a profit within the allowance as that many receipts. A larger profit takes the whole allowance, as the trade logic already assumes.
  • Ordinary treatment is an election out of full relief (s. 783AL), or no election for partial relief (s. 783AM). The model takes it when a raw current trading loss exceeds the saving from both reliefs, and it drops both together.
• New variables:
  • miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction;
  • miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance (the old taxable_miscellaneous_income formula, max_(0, miscellaneous_income));
  • uses_trading_allowance, true when either relief applies.
• taxable_miscellaneous_income is now the before-allowance figure less the deduction.

Means tests read income before the allowance. Benefits read raw self_employment_income, not profit after the trading allowance. To match, every means-test and gross-income reader of miscellaneous income now uses miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance:

• UC earned income (uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif);
• HB net earnings;
• the HB and CTR non-dependant gross income;
• gross_taxable_inputs;
• the Welsh childcare offer's gross income sources.

Tax-side readers stay on taxable_miscellaneous_income: adjusted net income, the UC income tax deduction, the CPS marriage tax reform and the property allowance check.

"Allowance chosen" now means either relief. Three places treated trading_allowance_deduction > 0 as "the individual used the allowance": the trading loss in annual_allowance_net_income (utils/pensions.py), trade_loss_relief_against_general_income, and ni_class_4_trading_loss. With relief on Chapter 8 income alone, that would let the individual claim the s. 783AF nil trade loss as well. All three now read uses_trading_allowance. YAML Cases 10 and 11 cover both directions: the model claims a £5,000 loss and taxes the casual income, while a £500 loss gives way to full relief on £800 of casual income.

Not modelled (stated in the helper's docstring):

• the exclusions in ss. 783AN–783AQ (rent-a-room receipts, and income including a payment from the person's employer, firm or close company);
• expenses against Chapter 8 income;
• a loss created by capital allowances, which the model never sets against other income.

Assumption with unknown receipts. Without self_employment_gross_receipts, the model takes a trade's receipts as the lowest its profit allows: the profit when that is within the allowance, and nil when the trade made a loss or no profit. This is the reading the trade-side logic already uses, and it is the generous one. The helper and the income_not_otherwise_charged docs both state it. So a loss-making trade with unknown receipts leaves the whole allowance to Chapter 8 income. Where actual receipts would push relevant income above the allowance, the model can over-relieve. With receipts supplied, the statutory differential test covers it exactly.

Invariants

Each one holds for every input. Hypothesis tests each over many generated cases in one reusable simulation.

Energy Bills Rebate (tests/test_energy_bills_rebate_hbai_properties.py, 16 households across bands, nations, pay, UC claims and EBSS months, 2021–2024):

1. HBAI income before the zero reset rises by exactly energy_bills_rebate, in every year, nation and band. (test_hbai_income_rises_by_exactly_the_rebate)
2. hbai_benefits does not change with the rebate, because it is miscellaneous income. (same test)
3. The Council Tax Rebate is paid once: £150 in 2022, bands A–D only, nothing in any other year from 2015 to 2030, and £150 at most in total. (test_the_council_tax_rebate_is_paid_once)
4. HBAI adds energy_bills_rebate once, and not its parts as well, and neither it nor the Warm Home Discount is in hbai_benefits. (test_the_rebate_is_counted_once_and_not_as_state_support)

Trading allowance (tests/test_trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income_properties.py, 24 drawn cases × 3 copies: drawn Chapter 8 share, none, all; each with and without the trade; the allowance is read from parameters, so the tests carry over to #2719's £3,000):

1. Differential against a statutory reference, with trade losses brought forward and negative profits drawn. Applies whenever trade receipts are known (or the trade has a loss or no profit, so the model takes it to have none) and there is no current loss. (test_taxable_income_matches_statutory_reference)
   • Taxable trade plus miscellaneous income equals the lower of ordinary treatment and the allowance under the model's trade-first split.
   • It is never below the lowest figure any split under s. 783AK(2)–(5) gives.
   • It equals that lowest figure when no losses are brought forward.
2. One allowance covers both: the two deductions together never exceed it. (test_one_allowance_covers_both)
3. Bounds: the miscellaneous deduction lies between 0 and the eligible Chapter 8 income, and taxable miscellaneous income lies between 0 and positive miscellaneous income. (test_deduction_and_taxable_income_are_bounded)
4. Without a current loss, trade relief does not depend on Chapter 8 income. (test_trade_relief_does_not_depend_on_chapter_8_income)
5. With no Chapter 8 income, every output equals the trade-only result. (test_no_chapter_8_income_changes_nothing)
6. Means tests read the income before the allowance. (test_means_tests_read_income_before_the_allowance)
7. Monotonicity: with miscellaneous income fixed and no current loss, income tax never rises as more of it is Chapter 8 income. (test_income_tax_never_rises_with_more_chapter_8_income)
8. Parity: without pension contributions, the model taxes Chapter 8 income like the same trade receipts with no expenses. (test_chapter_8_income_is_taxed_like_trade_receipts)
9. A current loss is never both claimed and given up, and a loss above anything the allowance could save is always claimed. The test also checks that uses_trading_allowance matches the deductions, which only restates its formula. (test_a_current_loss_is_never_both_claimed_and_given_up)

Mutation check. I applied each mutant to the helper or flag, then ran the property tests and YAML.

Mutant	Property tests that fail (of 9)	Cases that fail in the new YAML file (of 13)
M1: no relief on Chapter 8 income	2 (statutory differential, trade parity)	7
M2: a separate allowance for Chapter 8 income	2 (statutory differential, one allowance)	3
M3: uses_trading_allowance reads the trade relief only	1 (the loss election)	2
M4: all miscellaneous income is eligible, not only Chapter 8	3 (statutory differential, bounds, no Chapter 8 changes nothing)	1
M5: the loss-aware split (review r1's suggestion), moving allowance that brought-forward losses absorb to Chapter 8 income	1 (statutory differential: it no longer matches the trade-first split)	1 (of 14)

M3 at first got past every property test, because the loss test read the flag it was meant to check. The test now works out "allowance used" from the two deductions.

Independent review

Round 1 ran through subfleet run --task review --tier hard, at bd9cca3. With no Codex lane open, so Subfleet served it on Opus 5.5. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 1 major, 2 minor and 2 nit findings. The report is in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r1.md. 729062e addresses each finding:

1. Major: trade-first split with losses brought forward. The reviewer's counterexample is right that the Act allows a split charging £120 less this year. That split uses £600 of loss that would otherwise carry forward under ITA 2007 ss. 83–84, and it raises Class 4 profits, so the model keeps trade-first.
   • The helper's docstring no longer claims every split charges the same tax.
   • YAML Case 14 pins the split.
   • The property tests now assert that the model never undercuts the Act's lowest split, and equals it without losses brought forward.
2. Minor: unknown receipts on a loss-making trade. The model keeps the zero-receipts reading, which is consistent with the trade side. The helper and income_not_otherwise_charged now document it, and Case 11's comment states it.
3. Minor: test coverage. The strategies now draw loss_relief and negative profits. The reference minimises over the feasible splits, and M5 shows it pins the documented split.
4. Nit: s. 783AL wording. The docs now cover both the election out of full relief (s. 783AL) and the absence of a partial-relief election (s. 783AM).
5. Nit: the flag assertion. It is kept, and invariant 9 no longer counts it as evidence.

Round 2 ran on GPT-6.1 Sol (pinned to a Codex lane) at 729062e. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 1 major and 2 minor findings; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r2.md. It recommended keeping trade-first as the documented convention. It confirmed the statutory reference's piecewise argument and found it non-vacuous: 31 strict gaps between the lowest split and trade-first among 1,050 applicable cases. It also found no change against main with Chapter 8 income at zero, over 40,000 formula cases. 1077aa2 addresses each finding:

1. Major: HBAI counted the EBSS by calendar year. 1077aa2 added a financial-year copy for HBAI. Rounds 3 and 4 showed that a second figure for the same payments opens small-cell disclosures in the aggregate-impact report, so this PR withdraws the copy (see round 4).
2. Minor: the Welsh childcare offer's reviewed source set still named taxable_miscellaneous_income. It now names miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance. This was CI's only failure on 729062e.
3. Minor: the income-tax-neutrality claim. Pension relief also reads the trade's share. The helper docstring, the deduction's docs and invariant 8 now say so, and YAML Case 15 pins the trade-first result. I executed its figures in the model.

Round 3 ran on GPT-6.1 Sol at 1077aa2. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 2 major findings, both on the financial-year copy; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r3.md. January to March read the next model year's country (England then Northern Ireland gave £599 for 2022-23), and the report's small-cell protection missed the copy (one recipient, the calendar head suppressed, HBAI kept the £400). cc7002d fixed both.

Round 4 ran on GPT-6.1 Sol at cc7002d. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 2 major and 1 minor findings; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r4.md. It confirmed both round 3 fixes, then found:

1. Major: overlapping windows. Executed: published calendar and financial-year totals differed by exactly a suppressed one-household award (£4,219 less £4,020 is £199).
2. Major: reform withholding didn't check the financial-year copy, so a reform change revealed a one-record £400 award.
3. Minor: the conservation invariant held only for households that stay in one nation.

All three come from publishing a second figure for the same payments. Patching each overlap would add suppression logic across calendar and financial years for one historical payment, so 0deb0bb withdraws the financial-year copy instead (hbai_energy_bills_rebate, its helper, the report's HBAI_ONLY_COMPONENTS and their tests). HBAI counts energy_bills_rebate, which the report already protects as a head; that code matches main. The timing question goes to Follow-ups. The Welsh source set and pension fixes from round 2 stay. The docs page now records how the calendar convention treats movers, the behaviour behind finding 3.

Round 5 ran on GPT-6.1 Sol at 0deb0bb. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 1 minor finding; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r5.md. It confirmed the revert is complete and executed the protections: one recipient among twelve suppresses the head, rebuilds HBAI income without it and withholds deciles, poverty and inequality; reform withholding triggers on the head; round 4's overlapping-window pattern publishes no second figure. It also confirmed the calendar-year figures in the docs and found nothing new in the trading allowance.

1. Minor: the docs and this body said the EPG's timing would move HBAI income. epg_subsidy counts in household net income and government spending only (executed: a £123 EPG left HBAI income at £349). 9d4f759 corrects the docs page and this body.

Round 5 delta ran on GPT-6.1 Sol at 9d4f759. Verdict: APPROVE, no findings; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r5-delta.md. It confirmed the docs correction against household_benefits, gov_spending and the HBAI component list, and that 9d4f759 changes only the docs page.

Test plan

• YAML tests with expected values from statute and guidance:
  • miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction.yaml: 15 cases, with tax worked from s. 783AD's £1,000, the £12,570 personal allowance, the 20% basic rate and the 6% Class 4 main rate.
  • energy_bills_rebate.yaml: Cases 3–6.
  • council_tax_rebate.yaml: 2021, 2022 and 2023.
• Hypothesis property tests above, with pytest -n 4.
• Related YAML directories, single-process: 3,627 passed. They cover income tax, NI, pensions, student loans, treasury, household, finance, UC, tax credits, Pension Credit, Welsh Government, local authorities, Ofgem, gov spending and parametric reforms. The Budget-night capacity reservation ruled out a full local suite, so CI runs that.
• tests/code_health, test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py and test_projection_horizon.py with -n 2: 3,027 passed.
• After withdrawing the financial-year copy, with -n 4: the rebate and trading-allowance YAML (6 and 15 cases), and the rebate and trading-allowance property tests, tests/aggregate_impact/, tests/code_health, test_variable_code_sharing.py and the Welsh source test: 3,407 passed.
• make format
• Changelog fragments changelog.d/2724.fixed.md and changelog.d/2725.fixed.md

Aggregate impact

CI's job on 729062e passed: no household's net income changed in any year from 2025-26 to 2031-32, and no change to receipts, the government balance, poverty, inequality or decile incomes; one check (VAT sign) fails on both sides. The new head has the same rebate and HBAI code as 729062e, so the expected result is the same: the rebates are nil after 2023-24, and income_not_otherwise_charged defaults to zero, so taxable_miscellaneous_income, every means-test reader and the loss sites compute what they did before.

Overlaps with open PRs

• Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719 (Budget 2026 baseline).
  • It adds household_energy_payment to the same HBAI list, right after warm_home_discount, and inserts a docs section after the CTR parameter line this PR rewrites. Both are textual conflicts that keep both sides.
  • Its new comment in trading_allowance.yaml says the s. 783AD amount "also relieves miscellaneous income (s. 783B); the model applies it to trading income". Once this PR lands, the model applies it to both. The section is s. 783AB; s. 783B starts Chapter 2, the property allowance. Whichever lands second should fix that comment.
  • Its £3,000 allowance from 2027 flows through this PR's helper unchanged.
• Carry unused Income Tax trading losses forward once #2661 (trading losses carried forward). It touches utils/pensions.py and trade_loss_relief_against_general_income.py, where this PR changes one line each (trading_allowance_deduction > 0 becomes uses_trading_allowance). Any new "allowance chosen" test there should read the flag.
• Model rent from boarders, lodgers and sub-tenants for the householder #2002 (rent from boarders). It also edits the HBAI list.

Follow-ups (not in this PR)

• policyengine-uk-data: fill in income_not_otherwise_charged from the FRS odd-jobs and casual-income fields, and keep it at zero for SPI income that is already net of the allowance. Until then the relief has no aggregate effect.
• EBSS and EPG timing: the model sums both by calendar year, while HBAI counts the EBSS in 2022-23. The EBSS counts in household net income, gov_spending and HBAI income; the EPG in the first two. Whether to sum April to March instead spans both schemes, so it is a methodology decision of its own.
• Northern Ireland: the model pays the £150 CTR by band, but NI has domestic rates, not council tax. The model leaves out NI's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/energy_bills_rebate.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/council_tax_rebate.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/test_trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income_properties.py::test_taxable_income_matches_statutory_reference; policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_bills_rebate_hbai_properties.py::test_hbai_income_rises_by_exactly_the_rebate

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#348 queued

The axiom line covers the trading allowance. The spec for its miscellaneous-income half is in this comment, and the encoder waits on the corpus, which lacks ss. 783AA–783AR. The Energy Bills Rebate half is n/a: HBAI income is DWP's statistical definition (microsimulation-only), and the 2022-23 Council Tax Rebate was a grant scheme set by billing-authority guidance, with no rulespec-uk module.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2c7bf5a775 against head b86c2b229d, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,774,885 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,687,092 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 2c7bf5a775	uk 2.164.1 (files 6e0aa193e191), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	baf287432de7	1eac2ca06b91	1857.67s
head	#2726 merged into main b86c2b229d	uk 2.164.1 (files 2b0babdf2ae2), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	baf287432de7	1eac2ca06b91	1906.8s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.23bn	£334.00bn	£349.45bn	£365.10bn	£383.16bn	£397.71bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£256.88bn	£266.66bn	£272.70bn	£278.97bn	£285.24bn	£291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.21bn	£2.27bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.59bn	£26.54bn	£26.58bn	£26.26bn	£25.53bn	£24.40bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.73bn	£129.50bn	£132.99bn	£136.66bn	£140.43bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.03bn	£7.30bn	£7.51bn	£7.65bn	£7.84bn	£8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.48bn	£80.52bn	£83.04bn	£85.11bn	£86.31bn	£87.90bn	£88.58bn
Housing Benefit	£8.56bn	£8.89bn	£9.24bn	£9.48bn	£9.72bn	£9.99bn	£10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.20bn	£2.31bn	£2.45bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.82bn	£0.84bn	£0.86bn	£0.88bn	£0.90bn	£0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.35bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.59bn	£0.59bn	£0.57bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.62bn	£3.75bn	£3.83bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.38bn	£2.44bn	£2.51bn	£2.56bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,486k	1,480k	1,474k	1,455k	1,453k	1,455k	1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,357k	6,349k	6,350k	6,318k	6,307k	6,299k	6,253k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,245k	1,246k	1,229k	1,229k	1,229k	1,232k
Council Tax Reduction	3,176k	3,195k	3,200k	3,215k	3,224k	3,235k	3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,044k	1,046k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	355k	353k	351k	340k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,025k	1,021k	1,022k	1,008k	1,005k	991k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	804k	806k	809k	814k	814k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,074k	1,076k	1,079k	1,089k	1,090k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£892.00bn	£935.14bn	£979.55bn	£1,013.85bn	£1,052.14bn	£1,089.13bn	£1,122.37bn
Government spending	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.02bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.63bn †	£391.59bn †	£428.62bn †	£454.08bn †	£484.61bn †	£512.85bn †	£538.35bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£892.00bn	£935.14bn	£979.55bn	£1,013.85bn	£1,052.14bn	£1,089.13bn	£1,122.37bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.87bn	£549.93bn	£573.92bn	£598.90bn	£624.26bn	£645.90bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.15bn	£512.74bn	£541.54bn	£564.86bn	£589.61bn	£614.72bn	£636.09bn
gov_spending	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.02bn †
household_benefits	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.02bn †
gov_balance	£362.63bn †	£391.59bn †	£428.62bn †	£454.08bn †	£484.61bn †	£512.85bn †	£538.35bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.68bn †	£1,685.25bn †	£1,716.89bn †	£1,749.83bn †	£1,781.12bn †	£1,819.78bn †	£1,862.63bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.57bn	£1,497.73bn	£1,532.81bn	£1,567.21bn	£1,600.01bn	£1,638.04bn	£1,679.21bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.3%	15.6%	16.4%	16.3%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.7%	22.3%	23.3%	22.9%	23.1%	23.2%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.1%	13.9%	14.7%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%	14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.5%	14.0%	13.9%	14.0%	13.9%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.1%	22.0%	22.5%	22.7%	23.0%	23.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.3%	32.2%	32.4%	32.5%	33.0%	33.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.9%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.0%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.6%	13.1%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.3%	16.4%	16.3%	16.3%	16.3%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.9%	23.4%	23.3%	22.9%	22.8%	22.9%	23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.3%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.7%	13.9%	13.9%	13.8%	13.9%	14.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.1%	31.1%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.7%	11.7%	11.8%	12.0%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,278k	10,837k	11,403k	11,358k	11,478k	11,506k	11,643k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,688k	3,332k	3,496k	3,437k	3,477k	3,499k	3,545k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,965k	5,921k	6,308k	6,354k	6,417k	6,426k	6,517k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,584k	1,599k	1,568k	1,583k	1,580k	1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,944k	14,662k	15,296k	15,679k	15,862k	16,047k	16,331k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,975k	4,689k	4,832k	4,863k	4,898k	4,986k	5,125k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,463k	8,491k	8,965k	9,325k	9,464k	9,549k	9,669k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,506k	1,482k	1,500k	1,491k	1,500k	1,513k	1,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,750k	11,332k	11,389k	11,348k	11,358k	11,410k	11,702k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,872k	3,504k	3,496k	3,434k	3,431k	3,451k	3,577k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,159k	6,103k	6,301k	6,349k	6,363k	6,388k	6,540k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,720k	1,724k	1,592k	1,565k	1,563k	1,571k	1,585k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,849k	14,583k	14,728k	14,809k	14,885k	15,005k	15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,942k	4,664k	4,660k	4,663k	4,681k	4,702k	4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,460k	8,679k	8,821k	8,877k	8,964k	9,056k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,482k	1,459k	1,389k	1,325k	1,327k	1,340k	1,366k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3080	0.3057	0.3063	0.3062	0.3068	0.3073	0.3089

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,681 †	£17,895 †	£17,904 †	£18,146 †	£18,308 †	£18,581 †	£18,739 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,939 †	£28,874 †	£28,683 †	£29,083 †	£29,354 †	£29,679 †	£30,165 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,320 †	£35,455 †	£36,108 †	£36,626 †	£37,218 †	£37,722 †	£38,220 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,933 †	£40,603 †	£41,873 †	£42,783 †	£43,423 †	£43,928 †	£44,548 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,240 †	£45,443 †	£45,787 †	£46,995 †	£47,729 †	£48,921 †	£50,229 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,900 †	£49,126 †	£50,887 †	£51,727 †	£52,600 †	£54,202 †	£55,195 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,684 †	£56,509 †	£57,443 †	£57,966 †	£59,083 †	£59,211 †	£60,667 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,789 †	£70,704 †	£71,779 †	£73,356 †	£73,945 †	£75,356 †	£77,241 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,890 †	£80,992 †	£82,907 †	£84,246 †	£85,584 †	£87,169 †	£89,597 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,005 †	£120,262 †	£122,221 †	£124,681 †	£126,775 †	£129,108 †	£131,486 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.64bn	£6.88bn	£7.04bn	£7.26bn	£7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.23bn	£4.43bn	£4.70bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.80bn	£-3.92bn	£-3.98bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.21bn	£-1.96bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.39bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.17bn	£-1.06bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.37bn	£-20.88bn	£-21.32bn	£-21.52bn	£-21.86bn	£-22.25bn	£-22.42bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.73bn	£12.03bn	£12.30bn	£12.61bn	£13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.71bn	£26.63bn	£27.24bn	£27.87bn	£28.50bn	£29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.25bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.78bn	£-8.01bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.14bn	£-8.42bn	£-8.55bn	£-8.89bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.80bn	£7.01bn	£7.21bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.93bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.16bn	£-4.25bn	£-4.32bn	£-4.38bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.34bn	£20.87bn	£21.30bn	£21.52bn	£21.81bn	£22.20bn	£22.41bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	£12.94bn	£13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.51bn	£26.42bn	£27.03bn	£27.65bn	£28.28bn	£28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.18bn	£3.28bn	£3.38bn	£3.44bn	£3.50bn	£3.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.04bn	£12.47bn	£12.97bn

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (session local_961f6e31-704b-49fe-a0fe-473ce5c08062, started by the Autumn Budget coordinator)

• Head: 9d4f7591b378a37e7a43eab88821da11f3b18f01
• Review: GPT-6.1 Sol (subfleet run --task review --tier hard, pinned to a Codex lane), five rounds plus a delta. Round 5 at 0deb0bb found one minor docs error, which 9d4f759 fixes. The round 5 delta at this head: APPROVE, no findings. Reports are in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/ (review-r1.md to review-r5.md, review-r5-delta.md).
• What round 5 executed: the revert of the financial-year HBAI copy is complete; with one recipient among twelve, the report suppresses the rebate head, rebuilds HBAI income without it and withholds deciles, poverty and inequality; reform withholding triggers on the head; round 4's overlapping-window pattern publishes no second figure.
• Checks: 10 passing, 9 pending (the Python and YAML test shards, Fix evidence and Aggregate impact), 0 failing at hand-off. mergeable: MERGEABLE.
• Aggregate impact: pending on this head. On 729062e, which has the same rebate and HBAI code, it passed with no change to any household's net income, receipts, poverty, inequality or deciles over 2025-26 to 2031-32 (one VAT sign check fails on both sides).
• Hold: this PR fixes pre-existing bugs that Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719's review found, apart from Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719. Don't merge during the Budget-week merge hold; land it after the hold lifts, on the usual gates.
• Merge order: independent of Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719, Carry unused Income Tax trading losses forward once #2661 and Model rent from boarders, lodgers and sub-tenants for the householder #2002, but they conflict textually (see "Overlaps with open PRs" in the body). Whichever lands second resolves them. If Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719 lands second, it should also fix its trading_allowance.yaml comment (s. 783AB, not s. 783B; the model now applies the allowance to Chapter 8 income too).
• Depends on: nothing. The Carer's Allowance pence item is Count Carer's Allowance earnings-limit pence exactly #2543's.
• Decision (not a gate): d2155 asks whether the model should sum the EBSS and EPG by financial year rather than calendar year. This PR keeps the calendar-year sum either way.
• Follow-ups owed (not blocking):
  • Encode the trading allowance (ITTOIA 2005 Part 6A Chapter 1, ss.783A onward) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#348 encoding, once the corpus has ss. 783AA–783AR (spec posted).
  • uk-data filling in income_not_otherwise_charged.
  • The NI Council Tax Rebate and Alternative Fuel Payment, listed in the body.