Start Scottish Government presentation for 9 October 2026

lib/slideshows.ts

@@ -27,8 +27,10 @@ import { overhang2026Config } from "@/slideshows/overhang-2026/config";
 import { overhang2026BackupConfig } from "@/slideshows/overhang-2026-backup/config";
 import { overhang2026LightningConfig } from "@/slideshows/overhang-2026-lightning/config";
 import { blsTaxsim2026Config } from "@/slideshows/bls-taxsim-2026/config";
+import { scottishGovernment2026Config } from "@/slideshows/scottish-government-2026/config";
 
 export const slideshows: SlideshowConfig[] = [
+  scottishGovernment2026Config,
   blsTaxsim2026Config,
   overhang2026Config,
   overhang2026LightningConfig,

lib/speakers.ts

@@ -36,6 +36,11 @@ export const speakers: Record<string, SpeakerInfo> = {
     title: 'Data Scientist',
     photo: '/headshots/ben-ogorek.jpg',
   },
+  'vahid-ahmadi': {
+    name: 'Vahid Ahmadi',
+    title: 'Research Associate',
+    photo: '/headshots/vahid-ahmadi.png',
+  },
   'maria-juaristi': {
     name: 'Maria Juaristi',
     title: 'PolicyEngine',

slideshows/scottish-government-2026/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# Scottish Government meeting, 9 October 2026
+
+17 slides at `/slides/scottish-government-2026`, in five parts, each opened by a
+section slide:
+
+1. How we build the UK's microdata: the pipeline with the sources that feed
+   each stage and the Scottish target table (slides 3–5)
+2. Modelling property income: a waterfall of what each source measures, and the
+   steps that build landlords' income (slides 6–8)
+3. An analysis example: the targeted energy bill discount, by region and across
+   Scotland's income distribution (slides 9–10)
+4. Published work since April (slides 11–13)
+5. Plan for the Autumn Budget (slides 14–16)
+
+The deck follows two earlier Scottish Government presentations in
+`PolicyEngine/policyengine-demo`:
+
+- [February, PR #1](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-demo/pull/1)
+  (commit `c927448b371013ee428acdb3f2e407b27a01adbe`): methodology, the Enhanced
+  FRS pipeline, the 1,428 Scotland calibration targets and the Scottish Budget
+  2026-27 dashboard.
+- [March, PR #2](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-demo/pull/2)
+  (commit `159b8bcc469bcee8681972b6046636dfbfc241b0`): Spring Statement 2026,
+  research from February and March, and the Claude plugin.
+
+It doesn't repeat that material. Part 1 is framed as what changed since
+February, and part 4 starts in April.
+
+## Editing and presenting
+
+- `config.ts` controls the slide order and meeting metadata.
+- `content.ts` holds the pinned sources, tables, publication cards and Budget plan.
+- `slides/index.tsx` contains the slides.
+- `slides/figures.tsx` draws the pipeline graph, the target table, the property
+  income waterfall and step diagram, and the two energy charts (HTML and CSS, no chart
+  library). The pipeline and target table follow
+  [l0-ima-2026](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-slides/tree/main/slideshows/l0-ima-2026).
+- `SPEAKER-NOTES.md` gives the presenter track, sources and what not to claim.
+- Presenter headshots come from `lib/speakers` (Vahid's is from the app-v2 team page).
+- Cover images for part 4 are in `public/screenshots/scottish-government-2026/`,
+  copied from `policyengine-app-v2` (`app/public/assets/posts/`) and resized.
+  `autumn-budget-2025-in-review.jpg` is a 1600×1000 screenshot of the live review
+  dashboard, taken on 8 October 2026.
+
+Run `bun install --frozen-lockfile`, then `bun dev`. Open
+`http://localhost:3000/slides/scottish-government-2026`. Arrow keys move between
+slides and `F` enters fullscreen. Links open in a new tab. Export with
+`bun run export scottish-government-2026 /path/to/output.pdf`.
+
+`ReleaseChecksSlide`, which embeds the UK calibration diagnostics site, is out
+of the slide order: on 9 October the embed showed "HF fetch failed 401" with a
+private dataset name. Add it back to `config.ts` once the dashboard loads its
+release.
+
+Slide 10 charts the targeted energy bill discount and links its dashboard. Slide
+15 links both the 2025
+Budget dashboard and [Autumn Budget 2025 in review](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/autumn-budget-2025-in-review),
+including its public review dashboard.
+
+## Evidence and status
+
+Checked on 8 October 2026:
+
+- Microcosm main `75167a688ea83316654f1d794542124b4277bda9` and policyengine-uk
+  main `f1a9a3cc2885a42e58484d335e8ba0a02509f749`.
+- Publications: `policyengine-app-v2` main `c83e129de5b14c0972f3070617490e8100e8fcc8`
+  (`app/src/data/posts/posts.json` and `app/src/data/apps/apps.json`). Every
+  link on the slides returned HTTP 200.
+- Autumn Budget 2026 repository: `eb77d72b5e353b0cb85fecaf806f3a081753bbfa`.
+  It still contains the inherited 2025 measures, so part 5 is a plan.
+- Scottish target inventory at the pinned Microcosm commit: 58 national rows for
+  `S92000003`; 831 local-authority rows across 32 Scottish councils; 1,026
+  constituency rows across 57 Scottish Westminster constituencies. Counts refer
+  to target definitions, rather than passed fit checks. Council-tax band H has
+  31 local-authority rows; other council-tax bands have 32.
+
+- Property income: HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (individual
+  landlords, 2024-25: rent received £49.81bn, expenses £30.03bn; finance costs
+  pro-rated from all landlords' £12.82bn of £34.75bn). The step diagram
+  follows Microcosm #1145 as of 8 October, with HMRC's rental statistics kept as
+  a check rather than a calibration target.
+- Energy discount: `uk-energy-reforms` main `14bf3b0afc121b092bbd7545c9fb4963e8ab5c72`,
+  results for 2026-27, Resolution Foundation flat option (`rf_flat`), Microcosm
+  UK national release (`aa31bdf6`), policyengine-uk 2.102.3. Region rows are the
+  published `by_region` results. Scotland's deciles were computed from the same
+  run, after checking that it reproduces the published GB deciles and Scotland's
+  region row; each decile's effective sample is 38 to 102 households.
+
+What the deck deliberately does not claim:
+
+- no constituency or council fit figures: the local release isn't certified;
+- no property income results from the #1145 test builds: the decisions are
+  still open;
+- nothing about Scotland setting its own property income rates;
+- no VAT or fuel duty totals from the certified release, which are being fixed
+  in open policyengine-uk pull requests.