Start Scottish Government presentation for 9 October 2026

[juaristi22]

Open the public Scottish Government deck preview. This public deployment follows the branch. The Vercel bot also links a deployment in the policy-engine team that requires Vercel sign-in; use this public link to present or share the deck. Public deployment roots redirect from / to /slides.

Adds an 18-slide presentation for the Scottish Government meeting on 9 October 2026, in five parts. Each part opens with a section slide.

1. How we build the UK's microdata. A pipeline graph in the style of l0-ima-2026 shows five stages, each with the sources that feed it: the FRS, the SPI, the surveys used to fill gaps, NRS Output Areas, and the official statistics the weights match. A table lists Scotland's 1,915 target rows by target type, source and level. The live UK diagnostics dashboard is embedded.
2. Modelling property income. A waterfall starts from HMRC's rent received for individual landlords in 2024-25 and takes off allowable expenses, then mortgage interest, naming what each step removes and which source counts each total: HMRC's rental statistics, the SPI and the FRS. A step diagram follows Microcosm #1145. Survey landlords, with their mortgage interest added back, and copies of survey households that carry SPI incomes merge into rent received, calibration and tax. Each step names the data that informs it.
3. An analysis example. The Resolution Foundation's targeted energy bill discount (flat £175 option, 2026-27), from uk-energy-reforms. One chart shows the share of households eligible by region, split by route. A second shows the average gain across Scotland's income deciles. The slide links the dashboard.
4. Published work since April. UK analysis and tools, with links, including the land value tax post.
5. Plan for the Autumn Budget. Side-by-side previews of the 2025 dashboard and Autumn Budget 2025 in review, each a link, then how Budget day will run.

The figures are drawn in HTML and CSS in slides/figures.tsx, with no chart library. Presenter details, pinned sources, cover images and speaker notes accompany the deck.

The earlier demo source was recovered from policyengine-demo PR #1 and PR #2. The new presentation follows those meetings. The 2026 Budget part describes a plan, since its development repository still contains inherited 2025 measures.

The Vercel routing configuration redirects only the deployment root to the existing slide library. This fixes the automatic PR preview button, which otherwise returns 404 because Next.js is mounted at /slides.

Sources and figures

• Scottish targets: counted from Microcosm 75167a68: 58 Scotland-wide rows, 831 rows across 32 council areas and 1,026 across 57 Westminster constituencies. The slide labels these as target definitions; the local-area release is still being validated.
• Property income waterfall: HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026. HMRC publishes individuals' rent received (£49.81bn) and total expenses (£30.03bn). Finance costs are published only for all landlords (£12.82bn of £34.75bn), so the slide pro-rates them to individuals by their share of expenses. The FRS total (£15.4bn) is the FRS 2024-25 grossed up, for the 1.75m landlords reporting a profit; the step before it is the residual between profit after all costs and that total.
• Property income steps: follow the #1145 stage declarations, with HMRC's rental statistics as a check rather than a calibration target. The slide notes that the data changes are still in draft, and the speaker notes explain each step.
• Energy discount, by region: the published results at uk-energy-reforms 14bf3b0: 2026-27, Microcosm UK national release, policyengine-uk 2.102.3.
• Energy discount, Scotland's deciles: computed from the same run, after checking that it reproduces the published GB deciles and Scotland's region results. Deciles rank Scotland's people by household income after housing costs, adjusted for household size. Each decile's effective sample is 38 to 102 households; the speaker notes say so.

Validation

• TypeScript, ESLint (zero warnings on the deck) and all 130 tests pass, and the production build succeeds.
• Every slide was checked at 1280×720, 1366×768, 1440×900 and 1920×1080 for content running into the sources line or past the slide edge; none does.
• The diagnostics page permits embedding, but its UK release and summary API endpoints returned HTTP 502 during verification on 8 October. The deck includes a separate dashboard link and the static Scottish target table, and the speaker notes explain the limitation.

This remains a draft for presentation edits.

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated
policyengine-slides	Ready	Preview	Oct 9, 2026 11:42am UTC

[vahid-ahmadi]

Preview: https://policyengine-slides-git-scottish-governmen-df5f3a-policy-engine.vercel.app/slides/scottish-government-2026

This branch link redeploys automatically on every push to this PR. It sits behind Vercel login until the preview is made public or the PR merges; after merging, the deck is at https://policyengine.org/slides/scottish-government-2026.