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…iction posts Two US research posts: one introducing spm-calculator 1.0 (published BLS thresholds through 2025, rolling CE and ACS projections to 2035, the pre-committed nowcast evaluation, and what changed from the old package) and one recording PolicyEngine's pre-committed prediction for the 2025 SPM poverty rate with how the model builds the number and its current limitations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…rified fixes Prediction post: the opener names the 10 am ET release; the corrected 2024 anchors cite Table 3 of SEHSD-WP2026-17 (13.0 / 13.4 / 15.1, verified against the paper); the legacy model is described as the one serving policyengine.org today, since the canonical runtime has not been promoted; the unverified "most of the difference is threshold growth" sentence is cut; the rerun paragraph reports the result (policyengine-us 2.2.1 on the certified release reproduced the all-people and child changes to within 0.001 pp, receipt in the rollout directory), and the closing section no longer says "Tuesday". Announcement post: PyPI link goes to the project page; the cross-link no longer says "Tuesday's". Both posts dated 2026-09-15; the prediction title drops "Tuesday's" and the announcement title says "any US area, 2022 through 2035". Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Census (P60-290, 10 am ET September 15): SPM 13.1% all people (+0.1 pp), 13.4% children (-0.1), 15.4% age 65 and over (+0.2); renters 24.0% (+0.8), owners with mortgage 6.0% (-0.2), owners without 11.9% (unchanged). Registered prediction +0.2 / +0.9 / -0.5 misses by +0.1 / +1.0 / -0.7; prior model -0.5 / -0.2 / -1.2 misses by -0.6 / -0.1 / -1.4. The opener states the result, a results section carries the table, the chart adds the Census 2025 markers, and the title and description say the prediction is graded. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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The graded-prediction post now lives in #1214 (base
Merge order for the SPM posts: spm-threshold-paper#10 → #1209 → #1208 → #1214. |
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Closing per d118 (Max, 2026-09-30). Its prediction post was superseded by #1214 (merged 2026-09-29), and the calculator is already carried on main: both 'Our 2025 poverty prediction, graded' and '2025 Supplemental Poverty Measure…' link /us/spm-calculator (the latter with a 'Compute your SPM threshold' button) and its methods paper. The branch stays, so this can be reopened. |
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Two research posts for the SPM calculator launch, timed to the Census release of the 2025 poverty numbers (September 15, 10 am ET).
introducing-spm-calculator.md: the package (PyPI 1.0.0), the browser calculator at policyengine.org/us/spm-calculator, the projection method, the August 7 pre-committed nowcast graded against BLS's August 24 thresholds (1.17% MAE vs 2.58% for CPI-U aging), the July BLS correction and the package's own earlier errors, and what the calculator does not do.2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md: the prediction registered on September 11 in spm-threshold-paper (data/predictions/2025-spm-poverty-rates-2026-09-11.json, with OpenTimestamps proof): 13.2% all people, 14.3% children, 14.6% age 65 and over, built as the Census 2024 corrected rate plus the model's 2024-to-2025 change. Includes how the model calculates SPM poverty and what it does not do. A rerun on policyengine-us 2.2.1 with the certified population release reproduced the all-people and child changes to within 0.001 pp before the release.Every claim in both posts was checked against code and primary sources (verification report in the rollout directory); the items it flagged are applied.
Publish checklist:
docs-quarto/methodology/spm-poverty.qmdonmain, which 404s until that PR merges.🤖 Generated with Claude Code