Skip to content

docs(fixtures): sample-realism caveat — red_ranger's tied samples make some HDI bands honestly flat - #229

Merged
Polichinel merged 1 commit into
developmentfrom
docs/fixture-realism-note
Jul 19, 2026
Merged

docs(fixtures): sample-realism caveat — red_ranger's tied samples make some HDI bands honestly flat#229
Polichinel merged 1 commit into
developmentfrom
docs/fixture-realism-note

Conversation

@Polichinel

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

One-paragraph note in tests/data/README.md recording the 2026-07-19 investigation: the flat 95% (Ukraine) and 95%/~99% (Somalia) HDI bands in the demo reports are the fixture's doing — samples resampled from a small per-country discrete pool, with a recurring tie value (UKR 143 / SOM 438, present in all 36 months) owning the interval endpoint. Tower and chart verified correct; real posteriors wouldn't plateau. The note prevents the next eyeballer from re-running the diagnosis.

Docs-only. ruff clean; e2e fixture/golden suites green.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…ol samples make some HDI bands honestly flat

Investigated 2026-07-19 after user eyeballing: Ukraine's 95% band (and
Somalia's 95%/~99%) render flat because the fixture's samples are resampled
from a small per-country discrete pool (~23 uniques/256 draws; a recurring
tie value owns the interval endpoint every month). Tower + chart verified
correct; note added so the next demo eyeball doesn't re-run the diagnosis.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
EOF
@Polichinel
Polichinel merged commit 4845c31 into development Jul 19, 2026
1 check passed
@Polichinel
Polichinel deleted the docs/fixture-realism-note branch July 19, 2026 09:59
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant