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Merged
alxsmith merged 1 commit into from
Oct 9, 2026
Merged

ran with new trans set to mc tariffs #577

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81 changes: 81 additions & 0 deletions context/code/data/ct_eversource_custom_rates.md
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -230,11 +230,92 @@ build: (A) marginal cost subtotal `$0.04152` (Unit FC Recovery w/GET `$0.03894`
| **FIXED+RATE=MC delivery Block 1** | **0.09676** | derived | 0.05537 + 0.04139 |
| **FIXED+RATE=MC delivery Block 2** | **0.04397** | derived | 0.00258 + 0.04139 |

## Rate 6 MC-trans variants (RATE=MC TX=MC and FIXED+RATE=MC TX=MC)

Two further variants replace the **transmission rider** on winter Block 2 with the **marginal cost of
bulk transmission**, while keeping everything else identical to the parent RATE=MC / FIXED+RATE=MC
tariffs. The idea: above 700 kWh of winter heating consumption, the customer should pay only the
marginal cost of the transmission capacity their incremental load requires, rather than the embedded
average transmission rider.

### Marginal cost of transmission

The marginal cost is derived from the **AESC 2024 avoided PTF cost** (Synapse, AESC 2024 study):
$69/kW-yr in 2024 dollars (see `context/methods/marginal_costs/ct_bulk_transmission_marginal_cost.md`
and `utils/data_prep/marginal_costs/bulk_tx_isone.py` line 52: `AESC_2024_AVOIDED_PTF_KW_YEAR = 69.0`).

To convert to a flat $/kWh rate in 2026 dollars:

1. **CPI inflate** from 2024 to 2026: `$69 × (CPI_2026 / CPI_2024) = $69 × (331.28 / 313.70) = $72.87/kW-yr`.
CPI annual averages from FRED CPIAUCSL, fetched via `data/fred/cpi/` pipeline
(`s3://data.sb/fred/cpi/cpiaucsl_2019_2026_20261009.parquet`).
2. **Divide by 8,760 hours**: `$72.87 / 8760 = $0.00832/kWh`.

This flat rate replaces the filed transmission rider (`$0.05050`) **only on winter Block 2** (>700 kWh
in Nov–Mar). Block 1 and non-heating months keep the filed transmission rider unchanged.

### Rider decomposition on Block 2

For these variants, the Block 2 riders break down as:

| Component | Filed rider | MC-trans rider |
| ----------------- | ----------- | -------------- |
| Transmission | 0.05050 | **0.00832** |
| Other (CTA+SBC+…) | -0.00911 | -0.00911 |
| **Riders total** | **0.04139** | **-0.00079** |

### Rate 6 RATE=MC, TX=MC (`ct_eversource_rate6_ratemc_trans`)

- **Customer charge:** $30.95/month (unchanged from RATE=MC).
- **Distribution:** same as RATE=MC: winter tiered `$0.09431` (≤700 kWh) / `$0.04152` (>700 kWh);
non-heating flat `$0.09431`.
- **Delivery energy** = distribution + riders (Block 2 uses mc-trans riders):

| Season / block | Delivery ($/kWh) | + supply → supply-JSON ($/kWh) |
| --------------------- | ---------------- | ------------------------------ |
| Winter ≤700 (Jan–Mar) | 0.13570 | 0.24760 (+0.1119) |
| Winter >700 (Jan–Mar) | 0.04073 | 0.15263 (+0.1119) |
| Non-heating (Apr–Jun) | 0.13570 | 0.24760 (+0.1119) |
| Non-heating (Jul–Oct) | 0.13570 | 0.23318 (+0.09748) |
| Winter ≤700 (Nov–Dec) | 0.13570 | 0.23318 (+0.09748) |
| Winter >700 (Nov–Dec) | 0.04073 | 0.13821 (+0.09748) |

### Rate 6 FIXED+RATE=MC, TX=MC (`ct_eversource_rate6_fixed_ratemc_trans`)

- **Customer charge:** $57.13/month (unchanged from FIXED+RATE=MC).
- **Distribution:** same as FIXED+RATE=MC: winter tiered `$0.05537` (≤700 kWh) / `$0.00258` (>700 kWh);
non-heating flat `$0.05537`.
- **Delivery energy** = distribution + riders (Block 2 uses mc-trans riders):

| Season / block | Delivery ($/kWh) | + supply → supply-JSON ($/kWh) |
| --------------------- | ---------------- | ------------------------------ |
| Winter ≤700 (Jan–Mar) | 0.09676 | 0.20866 (+0.1119) |
| Winter >700 (Jan–Mar) | 0.00179 | 0.11369 (+0.1119) |
| Non-heating (Apr–Jun) | 0.09676 | 0.20866 (+0.1119) |
| Non-heating (Jul–Oct) | 0.09676 | 0.19424 (+0.09748) |
| Winter ≤700 (Nov–Dec) | 0.09676 | 0.19424 (+0.09748) |
| Winter >700 (Nov–Dec) | 0.00179 | 0.09927 (+0.09748) |

### Per-number provenance (MC-trans variants)

| Component | Value | Source | Derivation |
| ---------------------------------------- | ------------- | ----------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| AESC 2024 avoided PTF | $69/kW-yr | `bulk_tx_isone.py` line 52, AESC 2024 study (Synapse) | Direct value, 2024 dollars |
| CPI 2024 annual avg | 313.698167 | FRED CPIAUCSL, `data/fred/cpi/` pipeline | Annual average of monthly CPIAUCSL for 2024 |
| CPI 2026 annual avg | 331.279875 | FRED CPIAUCSL, `data/fred/cpi/` pipeline | Annual average of monthly CPIAUCSL for 2026 |
| MC-trans ($/kWh, 2026$) | $0.00832/kWh | derived | $69 × (331.28 / 313.70) / 8760 = $0.00832 |
| Block 2 riders_other | -$0.00911/kWh | derived | shared_riders.total − shared_riders.transmission = 0.04139 − 0.05050 |
| Block 2 riders_total (mc-trans) | -$0.00079/kWh | derived | 0.00832 + (−0.00911) = −0.00079 |
| **RATE=MC TX=MC delivery Block 2** | **0.04073** | derived | distribution 0.04152 + riders −0.00079 |
| **FIXED+RATE=MC TX=MC delivery Block 2** | **0.00179** | derived | distribution 0.00258 + riders −0.00079 |

## Files

- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate6.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate6_ratemc.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate6_fixed_ratemc.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate6_ratemc_trans.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate6_fixed_ratemc_trans.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/tariffs/electric/ct_eversource_rate1_proposed.json` (+ `_supply.json`)
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/rev_requirement/top-ups/monthly_rates/ct_eversource_rate6_monthly_rates_2025.yaml`
- `rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/rev_requirement/top-ups/monthly_rates/ct_eversource_rate1_proposed_monthly_rates_ry1.yaml`
8 changes: 8 additions & 0 deletions rate_design/hp_rates/ct/config/scenarios/pipeline_ct_eversource.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -51,6 +51,14 @@ scenarios:
# Rate 6 FIXED+RATE=MC: MFC in fixed charge, winter Block 2 = MC only.
quartet: single_rate_uncalibrated
tariff_base: rate6_fixed_ratemc
default_ry1_r6_ratemc_trans_uncalibrated:
# Rate 6 RATE=MC: winter Block 2 = marginal cost only (no reconciliation adj).
quartet: single_rate_uncalibrated
tariff_base: rate6_ratemc_trans
default_ry1_r6_fixed_ratemc_trans_uncalibrated:
# Rate 6 FIXED+RATE=MC: MFC in fixed charge, winter Block 2 = MC only.
quartet: single_rate_uncalibrated
tariff_base: rate6_fixed_ratemc_trans
default_ry1_icos_fair_flat_uncalibrated:
# Fair flat rate: delivery rate set so avg bill_after = avg bill_before + avg ΔMC.
quartet: single_rate_uncalibrated
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