Retire the "upper bound" label in the cause_shares replay crosswalk

analysis/adoption_national.json

@@ -1 +1 @@
-{"engine":{"convention":"additive_anchor","draws":4000,"seed":11},"national_expected_fy2028_bills_usd":{"base":7671249967.84,"broad":6940672776.84,"strict":7574367069.48},"provenance":{"data_json_sha256":"d1730015b76c09d0a407af3e739675bae6405a96c148e10e574da48360e47cde","engine_scenario_data_sha256":"7886710020f940beabc01110564384829ff4cb54b806ed1aee5bd9cac5f26b20"},"schema":"snap_qc_sim.adoption_national.v1","states_expected_fy2028_bills_usd":{"AK":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"AL":{"base":171787192.36,"broad":160076870.93,"strict":171507863.59},"AR":{"base":47330949.4,"broad":29122069.15,"strict":46317321.73},"AZ":{"base":277976643.97,"broad":249360323.09,"strict":277976643.97},"CA":{"base":1711964398.01,"broad":1335116889.01,"strict":1668746568.61},"CO":{"base":158939210.69,"broad":135592834.8,"strict":142582482.98},"CT":{"base":84964973.42,"broad":66643594.63,"strict":76426964.07},"DC":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"DE":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"FL":{"base":680119996.5,"broad":930041164.8,"strict":696435084.13},"GA":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"GU":{"base":15963222.46,"broad":16082533.63,"strict":16237026.3},"HI":{"base":105852837.97,"broad":99633475.76,"strict":105826335.0},"IA":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"ID":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"IL":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"IN":{"base":140044205.39,"broad":121676316.99,"strict":139571438.01},"KS":{"base":37972034.1,"broad":35413348.47,"strict":37710943.73},"KY":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"LA":{"base":146381926.98,"broad":72297683.38,"strict":118748248.89},"MA":{"base":300151100.61,"broad":343927837.23,"strict":303116829.45},"MD":{"base":132730990.15,"broad":207052260.25,"strict":171480942.85},"ME":{"base":49802930.15,"broad":41892613.79,"strict":48397432.52},"MI":{"base":298181424.1,"broad":178299476.5,"strict":280915715.3},"MN":{"base":79475101.07,"broad":98370529.6,"strict":79876941.47},"MO":{"base":137956398.61,"broad":81878807.67,"strict":136170018.87},"MS":{"base":79372132.45,"broad":76709171.57,"strict":79342323.18},"MT":{"base":15202702.62,"broad":9761309.19,"strict":13593361.93},"NC":{"base":137497994.69,"broad":30899216.62,"strict":131304074.28},"ND":{"base":10583417.07,"broad":9044481.01,"strict":10545317.86},"NE":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"NH":{"base":14268455.85,"broad":7961702.92,"strict":13245326.44},"NJ":{"base":87649303.03,"broad":73648588.14,"strict":86538901.51},"NM":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"NV":{"base":31016079.45,"broad":24005073.78,"strict":28209136.96},"NY":{"base":629878694.33,"broad":1020794400.53,"strict":629878694.33},"OH":{"base":135610495.08,"broad":11583475.84,"strict":113053200.03},"OK":{"base":216350433.65,"broad":189830542.95,"strict":213174061.2},"OR":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"PA":{"base":399695390.62,"broad":338071111.1,"strict":392482370.63},"RI":{"base":42494399.77,"broad":47680157.03,"strict":47027700.64},"SC":{"base":119534388.63,"broad":80108460.18,"strict":119534388.63},"SD":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"TN":{"base":153578435.12,"broad":151561205.24,"strict":153482376.56},"TX":{"base":680607586.47,"broad":404630032.53,"strict":675896610.22},"UT":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"VA":{"base":230432127.45,"broad":246266640.38,"strict":245510558.58},"VI":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"VT":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"WA":{"base":87177521.17,"broad":7013190.28,"strict":83873001.01},"WI":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"WV":{"base":22704874.43,"broad":8625387.89,"strict":19630864.01},"WY":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0}}}
+{"engine":{"convention":"additive_anchor","draws":4000,"seed":11},"national_expected_fy2028_bills_usd":{"base":7671249967.84,"broad":6940672776.84,"strict":7574367069.48},"provenance":{"data_json_sha256":"d1730015b76c09d0a407af3e739675bae6405a96c148e10e574da48360e47cde","engine_scenario_data_sha256":"f64b9fd7408daabe0e5ffad8115ef658572b35e0bdd102deca860f4230e6c044"},"schema":"snap_qc_sim.adoption_national.v1","states_expected_fy2028_bills_usd":{"AK":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"AL":{"base":171787192.36,"broad":160076870.93,"strict":171507863.59},"AR":{"base":47330949.4,"broad":29122069.15,"strict":46317321.73},"AZ":{"base":277976643.97,"broad":249360323.09,"strict":277976643.97},"CA":{"base":1711964398.01,"broad":1335116889.01,"strict":1668746568.61},"CO":{"base":158939210.69,"broad":135592834.8,"strict":142582482.98},"CT":{"base":84964973.42,"broad":66643594.63,"strict":76426964.07},"DC":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"DE":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"FL":{"base":680119996.5,"broad":930041164.8,"strict":696435084.13},"GA":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"GU":{"base":15963222.46,"broad":16082533.63,"strict":16237026.3},"HI":{"base":105852837.97,"broad":99633475.76,"strict":105826335.0},"IA":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"ID":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"IL":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"IN":{"base":140044205.39,"broad":121676316.99,"strict":139571438.01},"KS":{"base":37972034.1,"broad":35413348.47,"strict":37710943.73},"KY":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"LA":{"base":146381926.98,"broad":72297683.38,"strict":118748248.89},"MA":{"base":300151100.61,"broad":343927837.23,"strict":303116829.45},"MD":{"base":132730990.15,"broad":207052260.25,"strict":171480942.85},"ME":{"base":49802930.15,"broad":41892613.79,"strict":48397432.52},"MI":{"base":298181424.1,"broad":178299476.5,"strict":280915715.3},"MN":{"base":79475101.07,"broad":98370529.6,"strict":79876941.47},"MO":{"base":137956398.61,"broad":81878807.67,"strict":136170018.87},"MS":{"base":79372132.45,"broad":76709171.57,"strict":79342323.18},"MT":{"base":15202702.62,"broad":9761309.19,"strict":13593361.93},"NC":{"base":137497994.69,"broad":30899216.62,"strict":131304074.28},"ND":{"base":10583417.07,"broad":9044481.01,"strict":10545317.86},"NE":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"NH":{"base":14268455.85,"broad":7961702.92,"strict":13245326.44},"NJ":{"base":87649303.03,"broad":73648588.14,"strict":86538901.51},"NM":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"NV":{"base":31016079.45,"broad":24005073.78,"strict":28209136.96},"NY":{"base":629878694.33,"broad":1020794400.53,"strict":629878694.33},"OH":{"base":135610495.08,"broad":11583475.84,"strict":113053200.03},"OK":{"base":216350433.65,"broad":189830542.95,"strict":213174061.2},"OR":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"PA":{"base":399695390.62,"broad":338071111.1,"strict":392482370.63},"RI":{"base":42494399.77,"broad":47680157.03,"strict":47027700.64},"SC":{"base":119534388.63,"broad":80108460.18,"strict":119534388.63},"SD":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"TN":{"base":153578435.12,"broad":151561205.24,"strict":153482376.56},"TX":{"base":680607586.47,"broad":404630032.53,"strict":675896610.22},"UT":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"VA":{"base":230432127.45,"broad":246266640.38,"strict":245510558.58},"VI":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"VT":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"WA":{"base":87177521.17,"broad":7013190.28,"strict":83873001.01},"WI":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0},"WV":{"base":22704874.43,"broad":8625387.89,"strict":19630864.01},"WY":{"base":0.0,"broad":0.0,"strict":0.0}}}

analysis/cause_shares.json

@@ -129,7 +129,8 @@
     "committed_prose_discrepancy": {
       "assessment": "The 10-case count reproduces from all nine SAV AGENCY slots; neither available dollar definition reproduces $3.28M.",
       "claim": "10 cases, $3.28M, 3.3%",
-      "claim_location": "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/ANALYSIS.md:L62-L67",
+      "claim_location": "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/ANALYSIS.md:L62-L67 at commit 755a7f3179e964dccdf6dc2f7266e7c4758a0141",
+      "claim_status": "Corrected in the lab's 2026-10-03 revision: ANALYSIS.md, section 'The 10 broad-coded cases that do not reproduce', reports that $3.28M does not reproduce, and claims_audit.json case_level.broad_coded_misses lists the 10 cases.",
       "recomputed_broad_residual_n": 10,
       "recomputed_hwgt_times_amterr_dollars": 4469987.48,
       "recomputed_hwgt_times_engine_gap_dollars": 2913739.34,
@@ -144,27 +145,27 @@
     },
     "official_replay_any_agency_by_engine_outcome": {
       "qc_any_agency": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 21385851.53,
           "n": 16,
           "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.262868558653,
           "weighted_n": 70854.559396
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 35722171.4,
           "n": 47,
           "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.439086360163,
           "weighted_n": 196913.442078
         }
       },
       "qc_no_agency": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 3996798.73,
           "n": 5,
           "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.049127467341,
           "weighted_n": 17856.458946
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 20250862.86,
           "n": 29,
           "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.248917613843,
@@ -174,83 +175,83 @@
     },
     "official_replay_fractional_cause_by_engine_outcome": {
       "agency_or_system": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 18613052.87,
           "fractional_n": 13.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 57245.3175,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.228786138057
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 30229226.25,
           "fractional_n": 39.333333,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 163473.948503,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.371568703879
         }
       },
       "client_or_fact": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 6769597.39,
           "fractional_n": 8.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 31465.700841,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.083209887937
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 25457397.13,
           "fractional_n": 35.833333,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 147975.931408,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.3129147924
         }
       },
       "excluded_federal_match": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         }
       },
       "no_required_action": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 286410.88,
           "fractional_n": 0.833333,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 3299.582211,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.003520477727
         }
       },
       "other": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         }
       },
       "unclassified": {
-        "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+        "not_reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
           "share_of_replay_official_dollars": 0.0
         },
-        "explained_input_facts": {
+        "reproduced": {
           "dollars": 0.0,
           "fractional_n": 0.0,
           "fractional_weighted_n": 0.0,
@@ -259,20 +260,20 @@
       }
     },
     "reference": {
-      "classification": "abs(engine_on_original - RAWBEN) <= 5; a miss is a computation-side upper bound, not a proven computation error",
+      "classification": "reproduced if abs(engine_on_original - RAWBEN) <= 5, else not_reproduced",
       "path": "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/amterr_replay_results.json",
       "sha256": "3e214d2161269a8e5f1dad882aeec4dc0f7e35d957b6f836ea3170907b3368c6"
     },
     "slices": {
       "all_283": {
         "outcomes": {
-          "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+          "not_reproduced": {
             "dollars": 27739818.9,
             "n": 37,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.279838033554,
             "weighted_n": 158746.939352
           },
-          "explained_input_facts": {
+          "reproduced": {
             "dollars": 71388303.72,
             "n": 246,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.720161966446,
@@ -289,13 +290,13 @@
       },
       "official_above_threshold_97": {
         "outcomes": {
-          "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+          "not_reproduced": {
             "dollars": 25382650.26,
             "n": 21,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.311996025994,
             "weighted_n": 88711.018341
           },
-          "explained_input_facts": {
+          "reproduced": {
             "dollars": 55973034.26,
             "n": 76,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.688003974006,
@@ -312,13 +313,13 @@
       },
       "subthreshold_186": {
         "outcomes": {
-          "computation_side_upper_bound": {
+          "not_reproduced": {
             "dollars": 2357168.64,
             "n": 16,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.13263057259,
             "weighted_n": 70035.921011
           },
-          "explained_input_facts": {
+          "reproduced": {
             "dollars": 15415269.46,
             "n": 170,
             "share_of_slice_dollars": 0.86736942741,
@@ -572,7 +573,7 @@
     "element_dollar_formula": "sum(HWGT * AMOUNTi) where E_FINDGi in {2,3,4} and AMOUNTi > 0",
     "generator": {
       "path": "analysis/cause_shares.py",
-      "sha256": "67b7748b9cf02f63d910b9750839582068da1419005d1c9b5cf6f76ea1443ac3"
+      "sha256": "3eed82ca7af9c50fdccd3a924194e8cd65e22409487d6f4d7d217304c163721a"
     },
     "input_sav": {
       "bytes": 62737439,

analysis/cause_shares.py

@@ -40,6 +40,11 @@
     Path(__file__).parents[1]
     / "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/amterr_replay_results.json"
 )
+# A replayed case is "reproduced" when abs(engine_on_original - RAWBEN) <= 5.
+REPLAY_OUTCOMES = ("reproduced", "not_reproduced")
+REPLAY_TOLERANCE_DOLLARS = 5
+# The lab's July 2026 ANALYSIS.md, before its 2026-10-03 revision.
+PROSE_CLAIM_COMMIT = "755a7f3179e964dccdf6dc2f7266e7c4758a0141"
 
 SLOTS = tuple(error_model.FINDING_SLOTS)
 DETAIL_ROOTS = (
@@ -1023,13 +1028,22 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
         raise ValueError("Replay HWGT does not match source SAV")
     if not joined["STATUS"].astype(int).eq(replay["status"].astype(int)).all():
         raise ValueError("Replay STATUS does not match source SAV")
+    engine_gap = (
+        pd.to_numeric(replay["engine_on_original"])
+        - pd.to_numeric(replay["rawben"])
+    ).abs()
+    if not replay["within5"].astype(bool).eq(
+        engine_gap.le(REPLAY_TOLERANCE_DOLLARS)
+    ).all():
+        raise ValueError("Replay within5 does not match its engine-RAWBEN gap")
 
     for column in replay.columns:
         if column not in joined:
             joined[column] = replay[column]
     joined["case_dollars"] = joined["HWGT"] * joined["AMTERR"]
+    reproduced, not_reproduced = REPLAY_OUTCOMES
     joined["engine_outcome"] = np.where(
-        joined["within5"], "explained_input_facts", "computation_side_upper_bound"
+        joined["within5"], reproduced, not_reproduced
     )
     joined["official_above_threshold"] = error_model.official_error_label(joined).eq(1)
     joined["cause_classes"] = joined.apply(_class_sets_for_row, axis=1)
@@ -1062,10 +1076,7 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
                 outcome: _replay_metric(
                     part.loc[part["engine_outcome"].eq(outcome)], denominator
                 )
-                for outcome in (
-                    "explained_input_facts",
-                    "computation_side_upper_bound",
-                )
+                for outcome in REPLAY_OUTCOMES
             },
             "solver_engine_within5_concordant_n": int(
                 part["solver_within5"].eq(part["within5"]).sum()
@@ -1093,10 +1104,7 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
     fractional_cross_tab: dict[str, Any] = {}
     for cause_class in CAUSE_CLASSES:
         fractional_cross_tab[cause_class] = {}
-        for outcome in (
-            "explained_input_facts",
-            "computation_side_upper_bound",
-        ):
+        for outcome in REPLAY_OUTCOMES:
             part = crosswalk.loc[
                 crosswalk["class"].eq(cause_class)
                 & crosswalk["outcome"].eq(outcome)
@@ -1119,10 +1127,7 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
         ("qc_no_agency", False),
     ):
         binary_cross_tab[qc_label] = {}
-        for outcome in (
-            "explained_input_facts",
-            "computation_side_upper_bound",
-        ):
+        for outcome in REPLAY_OUTCOMES:
             part = official.loc[
                 official["qc_any_agency"].eq(qc_value)
                 & official["engine_outcome"].eq(outcome)
@@ -1135,7 +1140,7 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
     all_replay_dollars = float(all_replay["case_dollars"].sum())
     broad_residual = all_replay.loc[
         all_replay["qc_broad_rules_engine"]
-        & all_replay["engine_outcome"].eq("computation_side_upper_bound")
+        & all_replay["engine_outcome"].eq(not_reproduced)
     ].copy()
     broad_residual["engine_gap_dollars"] = (
         (broad_residual["engine_on_original"] - broad_residual["rawben"]).abs()
@@ -1152,8 +1157,8 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
             "path": str(REPLAY_PATH.relative_to(Path(__file__).parents[1])),
             "sha256": error_model._sha256(REPLAY_PATH),
             "classification": (
-                "abs(engine_on_original - RAWBEN) <= 5; a miss is a "
-                "computation-side upper bound, not a proven computation error"
+                "reproduced if abs(engine_on_original - RAWBEN) <= 5, "
+                "else not_reproduced"
             ),
         },
         "denominator_reconciliation": {
@@ -1176,9 +1181,16 @@ def colorado_replay_reconciliation(universe: pd.DataFrame) -> dict[str, Any]:
         "official_replay_any_agency_by_engine_outcome": binary_cross_tab,
         "committed_prose_discrepancy": {
             "claim_location": (
-                "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/ANALYSIS.md:L62-L67"
+                "paper/snapshot/labs/amterr/ANALYSIS.md:L62-L67 at commit "
+                f"{PROSE_CLAIM_COMMIT}"
             ),
             "claim": "10 cases, $3.28M, 3.3%",
+            "claim_status": (
+                "Corrected in the lab's 2026-10-03 revision: ANALYSIS.md, "
+                "section 'The 10 broad-coded cases that do not reproduce', "
+                "reports that $3.28M does not reproduce, and claims_audit.json "
+                "case_level.broad_coded_misses lists the 10 cases."
+            ),
             "recomputed_broad_residual_n": len(broad_residual),
             "recomputed_hwgt_times_amterr_dollars": _rounded(
                 broad_residual["case_dollars"].sum(), 2