hua7450 · Oct 6, 2026 · Oct 2, 2026 · Oct 3, 2026 · Oct 3, 2026 · Oct 3, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/nc-reduced-price-school-meals.fixed.md b/changelog.d/nc-reduced-price-school-meals.fixed.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+North Carolina students who qualify for reduced-price school meals now get the free tier, because the state pays the reduced-price copay. Correct the 2025 contiguous-US paid lunch reimbursement rate to use the same under-60% category as the free and reduced-price rates. Date the school year 2025-2026 reimbursement rates to July 1, 2025. Add published school year 2026-2027 reimbursement rates for all modeled regions and apply projected rate changes only on July 1, preserving published rates through June. Update partner school-meal scenarios and expected benefits.
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/usda/school_meals/amount/nslp.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/usda/school_meals/amount/nslp.yaml
@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 0.37
     2023-07-01: 0.40
     2024-07-01: 0.42
-    2025-01-01: 0.46
+    2025-07-01: 0.44
+    2026-07-01: 0.45
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 2.67
     2016-07-01: 2.76
@@ -25,7 +26,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 3.53
     2023-07-01: 3.85
     2024-07-01: 4.03
-    2025-01-01: 4.20
+    2025-07-01: 4.20
+    2026-07-01: 4.36
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 3.07
     2016-07-01: 3.16
@@ -37,7 +39,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 3.93
     2023-07-01: 4.25
     2024-07-01: 4.43
-    2025-01-01: 4.60
+    2025-07-01: 4.60
+    2026-07-01: 4.76
 AK:
   PAID:
     2015-07-01: 0.48
@@ -50,7 +53,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 0.61
     2023-07-01: 0.66
     2024-07-01: 0.69
-    2025-01-01: 0.71
+    2025-07-01: 0.71
+    2026-07-01: 0.74
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 4.59
     2016-07-01: 4.72
@@ -62,7 +66,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 5.97
     2023-07-01: 6.50
     2024-07-01: 6.78
-    2025-01-01: 7.05
+    2025-07-01: 7.05
+    2026-07-01: 7.32
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 4.99
     2016-07-01: 5.12
@@ -74,7 +79,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 6.37
     2023-07-01: 6.90
     2024-07-01: 7.18
-    2025-01-01: 7.45
+    2025-07-01: 7.45
+    2026-07-01: 7.72
 HI:
   PAID:
     2015-07-01: 0.34
@@ -87,7 +93,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 0.44
     2023-07-01: 0.53
     2024-07-01: 0.55
-    2025-01-01: 0.57
+    2025-07-01: 0.57
+    2026-07-01: 0.59
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 3.20
     2016-07-01: 3.29
@@ -99,7 +106,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 4.20
     2023-07-01: 5.14
     2024-07-01: 5.36
-    2025-01-01: 5.58
+    2025-07-01: 5.58
+    2026-07-01: 5.79
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 3.60
     2016-07-01: 3.69
@@ -111,7 +119,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 4.60
     2023-07-01: 5.54
     2024-07-01: 5.76
-    2025-01-01: 5.98
+    2025-07-01: 5.98
+    2026-07-01: 6.19
 
 metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
@@ -138,10 +147,25 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/07/10/2024-15175/national-school-lunch-special-milk-and-school-breakfast-programs-national-average-paymentsmaximum
     - title: National School Lunch, Special Milk, and School Breakfast Programs, National Average Payments/Maximum Reimbursement Rates - 2025
       href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-07-24/pdf/2025-13879.pdf#page=3
+    - title: National School Lunch, Special Milk, and School Breakfast Programs, National Average Payments/Maximum Reimbursement Rates - 2026
+      href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-07-16/pdf/2026-14252.pdf#page=3
   period: day
   label: National School Lunch Program value
   breakdown:
     - state_group
     - school_meal_tier
-  uprating: gov.bls.cpi.cpi_u
+  # Published rates remain fixed from July through June. After the last
+  # published school year, retain CPI-U as a projection proxy for USDA's
+  # Food Away From Home index, applying May-to-May changes only on July 1.
+  # Future CPI-U entries are annual forecast proxies, not observed May values.
+  # Projections compound rounded rates; USDA's unrounded bases are not modeled.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: gov.bls.cpi.cpi_u
+    at_defined_interval:
+      start: "0001-05-01"
+      end: "0002-05-01"
+      enactment: "0002-07-01"
+    rounding:
+      interval: 0.01
+      type: downwards
   propagate_metadata_to_children: true
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/usda/school_meals/amount/sbp.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/usda/school_meals/amount/sbp.yaml
@@ -13,7 +13,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 0.35
     2023-07-01: 0.38
     2024-07-01: 0.39
-    2025-01-01: 0.40
+    2025-07-01: 0.40
+    2026-07-01: 0.42
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 1.36
     2016-07-01: 1.41
@@ -25,7 +26,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 1.81
     2023-07-01: 1.98
     2024-07-01: 2.07
-    2025-01-01: 2.16
+    2025-07-01: 2.16
+    2026-07-01: 2.24
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 1.66
     2016-07-01: 1.71
@@ -37,7 +39,8 @@ CONTIGUOUS_US:
     2022-07-01: 2.11
     2023-07-01: 2.28
     2024-07-01: 2.37
-    2025-01-01: 2.46
+    2025-07-01: 2.46
+    2026-07-01: 2.54
 AK:
   PAID:
     2015-07-01: 0.43
@@ -50,7 +53,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 0.54
     2023-07-01: 0.58
     2024-07-01: 0.60
-    2025-01-01: 0.62
+    2025-07-01: 0.62
+    2026-07-01: 0.64
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 2.36
     2016-07-01: 2.43
@@ -62,7 +66,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 3.08
     2023-07-01: 3.36
     2024-07-01: 3.50
-    2025-01-01: 3.65
+    2025-07-01: 3.65
+    2026-07-01: 3.79
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 2.66
     2016-07-01: 2.73
@@ -74,7 +79,8 @@ AK:
     2022-07-01: 3.38
     2023-07-01: 3.66
     2024-07-01: 3.80
-    2025-01-01: 3.95
+    2025-07-01: 3.95
+    2026-07-01: 4.09
 HI:
   PAID:
     2015-07-01: 0.33
@@ -87,7 +93,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 0.40
     2023-07-01: 0.47
     2024-07-01: 0.49
-    2025-01-01: 0.51
+    2025-07-01: 0.51
+    2026-07-01: 0.52
   REDUCED:
     2015-07-01: 1.64
     2016-07-01: 1.69
@@ -99,7 +106,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 2.16
     2023-07-01: 2.65
     2024-07-01: 2.76
-    2025-01-01: 2.88
+    2025-07-01: 2.88
+    2026-07-01: 2.99
   FREE:
     2015-07-01: 1.94
     2016-07-01: 1.99
@@ -111,7 +119,8 @@ HI:
     2022-07-01: 2.46
     2023-07-01: 2.95
     2024-07-01: 3.06
-    2025-01-01: 3.18
+    2025-07-01: 3.18
+    2026-07-01: 3.29
 
 metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
@@ -138,10 +147,25 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/07/10/2024-15175/national-school-lunch-special-milk-and-school-breakfast-programs-national-average-paymentsmaximum
     - title: National School Lunch, Special Milk, and School Breakfast Programs, National Average Payments/Maximum Reimbursement Rates - 2025
       href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-07-24/pdf/2025-13879.pdf#page=4
+    - title: National School Lunch, Special Milk, and School Breakfast Programs, National Average Payments/Maximum Reimbursement Rates - 2026
+      href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-07-16/pdf/2026-14252.pdf#page=3
   period: day
   label: School Breakfast Program value
   breakdown:
     - state_group
     - school_meal_tier
-  uprating: gov.bls.cpi.cpi_u
+  # Published rates remain fixed from July through June. After the last
+  # published school year, retain CPI-U as a projection proxy for USDA's
+  # Food Away From Home index, applying May-to-May changes only on July 1.
+  # Future CPI-U entries are annual forecast proxies, not observed May values.
+  # Projections compound rounded rates; USDA's unrounded bases are not modeled.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: gov.bls.cpi.cpi_u
+    at_defined_interval:
+      start: "0001-05-01"
+      end: "0002-05-01"
+      enactment: "0002-07-01"
+    rounding:
+      interval: 0.01
+      type: downwards
   propagate_metadata_to_children: true
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		North Carolina students who qualify for reduced-price school meals now get the free tier, because the state pays the reduced-price copay. Correct the 2025 contiguous-US paid lunch reimbursement rate to use the same under-60% category as the free and reduced-price rates. Date the school year 2025-2026 reimbursement rates to July 1, 2025. Add published school year 2026-2027 reimbursement rates for all modeled regions and apply projected rate changes only on July 1, preserving published rates through June. Update partner school-meal scenarios and expected benefits.