MaxGhenis · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/medicare-part-b-premium-uprating.fixed.md b/changelog.d/medicare-part-b-premium-uprating.fixed.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Project Medicare Part A, B and D premiums, the Part A deductible, and the Part B and D income-related adjustment amounts and thresholds past CMS's last announced year, using the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and the statutory inflation adjustment, instead of holding them at their 2026 values.
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_deductible.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_deductible.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible per benefit period.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: year
+  label: Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E1, "HI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Inpatient hospital
+  # deductible" column (file page 212): historical amounts through 2026 and
+  # intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. Report transmitted 2026-06-09,
+  # retrieved 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E1
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=212
+  - title: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 1_260
+  2016-01-01: 1_288
+  2017-01-01: 1_316
+  2018-01-01: 1_340
+  2019-01-01: 1_364
+  2020-01-01: 1_408
+  2021-01-01: 1_484
+  2022-01-01: 1_556
+  2023-01-01: 1_600
+  2024-01-01: 1_632
+  2025-01-01: 1_676
+  2026-01-01: 1_736
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2027-01-01: 1_788
+  2028-01-01: 1_844
+  2029-01-01: 1_900
+  2030-01-01: 1_960
+  2031-01-01: 2_028
+  2032-01-01: 2_092
+  2033-01-01: 2_160
+  2034-01-01: 2_228
+  2035-01-01: 2_296
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (2,296 / 2,228, 3.1% a year) and
+  # later years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this standard monthly Medicare Part A premium per enrollee who has fewer than 30 quarters of Medicare-covered employment.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: month
+  label: Medicare Part A standard monthly premium per enrollee
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E1, "HI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Monthly premium,
+  # Standard" column (file page 212): historical amounts through 2026 and
+  # intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. Report transmitted 2026-06-09,
+  # retrieved 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E1
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=212
+  - title: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 407
+  2016-01-01: 411
+  2017-01-01: 413
+  2018-01-01: 422
+  2019-01-01: 437
+  2020-01-01: 458
+  2021-01-01: 471
+  2022-01-01: 499
+  2023-01-01: 506
+  2024-01-01: 505
+  2025-01-01: 518
+  2026-01-01: 565
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2027-01-01: 600
+  2028-01-01: 629
+  2029-01-01: 660
+  2030-01-01: 694
+  2031-01-01: 730
+  2032-01-01: 767
+  2033-01-01: 812
+  2034-01-01: 862
+  2035-01-01: 900
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (900 / 862, 4.4% a year) and later
+  # years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.
diff --git a/...meters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_d_base_beneficiary_premium_per_enrollee.yaml b/...meters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_d_base_beneficiary_premium_per_enrollee.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this Medicare Part D base beneficiary premium per enrollee.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: month
+  label: Medicare Part D base beneficiary premium per enrollee
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E2, "SMI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Part D, Base
+  # beneficiary premium" column (file page 213): historical amounts through
+  # 2026 and intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. The 2030 jump is the
+  # Inflation Reduction Act's reset of the base beneficiary premium percent
+  # to 20 percent (file page 154). Report transmitted 2026-06-09, retrieved
+  # 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E2
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=213
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Part D premiums
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=154
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 33.13
+  2016-01-01: 34.10
+  2017-01-01: 35.63
+  2018-01-01: 35.02
+  2019-01-01: 33.19
+  2020-01-01: 32.74
+  2021-01-01: 33.06
+  2022-01-01: 33.37
+  2023-01-01: 32.74
+  2024-01-01: 34.70
+  2025-01-01: 36.78
+  2026-01-01: 38.99
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2027-01-01: 41.33
+  2028-01-01: 43.81
+  2029-01-01: 46.44
+  2030-01-01: 68.93
+  2031-01-01: 71.27
+  2032-01-01: 71.59
+  2033-01-01: 74.01
+  2034-01-01: 75.48
+  2035-01-01: 77.81
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (77.81 / 75.48, 3.1% a year) and
+  # later years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/deductible.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/deductible.yaml
@@ -3,11 +3,24 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: year
   label: Medicare Part A deductible
+  # After the last announced year, the deductible follows the Medicare
+  # Trustees' projected deductible, rounded to the nearest multiple of $4 as 42
+  # U.S.C. 1395e(b)(1) requires.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_a_deductible
+    rounding:
+      type: nearest
+      interval: 4
   reference:
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395e(b)(1)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395e#b_1
     - title: 2024 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2024-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
     - title: 2025 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2025-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
+    - title: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
+      href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
 values:
   2024-01-01: 1_632
   2025-01-01: 1_676
+  2026-01-01: 1_736
diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/full_premium.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/full_premium.yaml
@@ -3,7 +3,17 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part A full premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium follows the Medicare Trustees'
+  # projected standard Part A premium, rounded to the nearest dollar as 42
+  # U.S.C. 1395i-2(d)(2) requires.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee
+    rounding:
+      type: nearest
+      interval: 1
   reference:
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395i-2(d)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395i-2#d
     - title: 2021 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021-medicare-part-b-premiums-remain-steady
     - title: 2022 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles

diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/reduced_premium.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/reduced_premium.yaml
@@ -3,7 +3,18 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part A reduced premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium follows the Medicare Trustees'
+  # projected standard Part A premium, rounded to the nearest dollar as CMS
+  # publishes it. 42 U.S.C. 1395i-2(d)(4) sets it 45 percent below the
+  # standard premium, so the two grow together.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee
+    rounding:
+      type: nearest
+      interval: 1
   reference:
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395i-2(d)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395i-2#d
     - title: 2022 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2022-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles-2022-medicare-part-d-income-related-monthly-adjustment
     - title: 2023 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles

diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_b/base_premium.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_b/base_premium.yaml
@@ -3,7 +3,17 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part B base premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium follows the Medicare Trustees'
+  # projected standard premium, rounded to the nearest 10 cents as 42 U.S.C.
+  # 1395r(c) requires.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+    rounding:
+      type: nearest
+      interval: 0.1
   reference:
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395r(a)(3) and (c)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395r#a_3
     - title: 2021 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021-medicare-part-b-premiums-remain-steady
     - title: 2022 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles

diff --git a/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_b/irmaa/head_of_household.yaml b/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_b/irmaa/head_of_household.yaml
@@ -5,7 +5,15 @@ metadata:
   amount_unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part B income brackets for head of household filers
+  # After the last announced year, each income-related adjustment amount
+  # follows the Medicare Trustees' projected standard Part B premium: 42
+  # U.S.C. 1395r(i)(3)(A) makes each a fixed multiple of the same
+  # unsubsidized premium amount. The thresholds are indexed to CPI-U under
+  # 1395r(i)(5); see extend_medicare_irmaa_thresholds in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.
   reference:
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395r(i)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395r#i
     - title: 2024 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2024-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles
     - title: 2025 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
@@ -26,38 +34,73 @@ brackets:
       2025-01-01: 106_001
       2026-01-01: 109_001
     amount:
-      2024-01-01: 69.90
-      2025-01-01: 74
-      2026-01-01: 81.20
+      values:
+        2024-01-01: 69.90
+        2025-01-01: 74
+        2026-01-01: 81.20
+      metadata:
+        uprating:
+          parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+          rounding:
+            type: nearest
+            interval: 0.1
   - threshold:
       2024-01-01: 129_001
       2025-01-01: 133_001
       2026-01-01: 137_001
     amount:
-      2024-01-01: 174.70
-      2025-01-01: 185
-      2026-01-01: 202.90
+      values:
+        2024-01-01: 174.70
+        2025-01-01: 185
+        2026-01-01: 202.90
+      metadata:
+        uprating:
+          parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+          rounding:
+            type: nearest
+            interval: 0.1
   - threshold:
       2024-01-01: 161_001
       2025-01-01: 167_001
       2026-01-01: 171_001
     amount:
-      2024-01-01: 279.50
-      2025-01-01: 295.9
-      2026-01-01: 324.60
+      values:
+        2024-01-01: 279.50
+        2025-01-01: 295.9
+        2026-01-01: 324.60
+      metadata:
+        uprating:
+          parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+          rounding:
+            type: nearest
+            interval: 0.1
   - threshold:
       2024-01-01: 193_001
       2025-01-01: 200_001
       2026-01-01: 205_001
     amount:
-      2024-01-01: 384.30
-      2025-01-01: 406.9
-      2026-01-01: 446.30
+      values:
+        2024-01-01: 384.30
+        2025-01-01: 406.9
+        2026-01-01: 446.30
+      metadata:
+        uprating:
+          parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+          rounding:
+            type: nearest
+            interval: 0.1
   - threshold:
       2024-01-01: 500_000
       2025-01-01: 500_000
       2026-01-01: 500_000
     amount:
-      2024-01-01: 419.30
-      2025-01-01: 443.9
-      2026-01-01: 487
+      values:
+        2024-01-01: 419.30
+        2025-01-01: 443.9
+        2026-01-01: 487
+      metadata:
+        uprating:
+          parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+          rounding:
+            type: nearest
+            interval: 0.1
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		Project Medicare Part A, B and D premiums, the Part A deductible, and the Part B and D income-related adjustment amounts and thresholds past CMS's last announced year, using the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and the statutory inflation adjustment, instead of holding them at their 2026 values.