Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2751 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-29T16:25:26Z

Draft. Do not merge or enqueue: policyengine-uk merges are on hold under decision d2161.

What

The model now rounds projected State Pension weekly rates as each Up-rating Order rounds them. Each April, the full new State Pension and the basic State Pension take the previous year's rate, raise it by that April's triple lock rate, and round to the nearest 5p. Published rates (to April 2026) stay unchanged.

On the October 2026 forecast, the full new State Pension becomes £250.70, £259.20 and £265.70 a week for 2027-28 to 2029-30 (was £250.71, £259.24 and £265.72). The basic State Pension becomes £192.10, £198.65 and £203.60 (was £192.11, £198.64 and £203.61). 52 weeks at £250.70 is the £13,036.40 that HM Treasury's Pension Tax Allowance explainer uses.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_rate_rounding.py::test_april_2027_is_the_pension_tax_allowance_explainer_figure

The rule and its sources

Statute. Social Security Administration Act 1992 s.150A(4) lets the Secretary of State round each increase "up or down to such extent as he thinks appropriate".
DWP practice. DWP applies the review's percentage "to the current full weekly rates of the basic and new State Pensions. The resulting amounts are rounded to the nearest 5p" (HL10770, 20 October 2025). The Explanatory Memoranda to the Up-rating Orders say the same for the full rates: SI 2017/260 and 2018/281 ¶4.11, SI 2019/480 ¶7.16, and SI 2020/234 ¶7.17.
Forecast baseline. HM Treasury's Budget 2026 policy costings, Annex A (p.114), project both rates as the triple lock "rounded to the nearest 5p". The same wording appears in every fiscal event back to Autumn Statement 2023.
History. The previous published rate, uprated and rounded to the nearest 5p, reproduces every basic rate from April 2011 and every full new rate from April 2017 (test_triple_lock_outturn.py). Always rounding up or always down to 5p, or rounding to the nearest 10p, each misses five or more of those years. Over 2003–2026 nearest 5p gets 44 of 45 published rates. The one miss is April 2003, set by a £100-a-year cash pledge.
2027-28 check. HCWS427 (28 October 2026) gives rises of "around £490" (new) and "around £375" (basic) a year. (250.70 − 241.30) × 52 = £488.80 and (192.10 − 184.90) × 52 = £374.40.

The rounding chains: each year starts from the previous year's rounded rate. That matters. £250.70 × 1.034 = £259.2238 gives £259.20 for April 2028. Rounding the unrounded path instead (£259.2357) would give £259.25.

How

A new generation step, create_rate_projection.project_state_pension_rates, runs after the economic assumption indices. For each rate it fills the years after the last stated value, through the last year of the rate's uprating index. Each value is the previous year's value times the index's growth over the year, rounded to the nearest multiple of gov.dwp.state_pension.weekly_rate_rounding (0.05) in Decimal. No published rate has landed exactly on a half, so the sources leave ties open; the model rounds halves up. The baseline copy, prior law's projected path for dated reforms and the fiscal-year annualisation all see the rounded rates. General uprating then has no year left to fill.
The growth comes from the index named in each rate's uprating metadata. So a reform to the triple lock rate, its inputs or the index moves the projection, and so does a reform to the rounding parameter, set for whole fiscal years (a single value, a year key or a date range covering 30 April) through a reform dict or Scenario(parameter_changes=...). The step reads each April's rounding on 30 April. Setting the rounding to 0 gives the unrounded chain. A rate a reform states for a year stays as stated, and the years after follow prior law's rounded path, as dated reforms fill gaps.
The earnings-path guarantee (a reform option, off under current law) holds for the uprating percentages. The weekly rate then rounds to the nearest 5p, which s.150A(4) allows even below the minimum: in April 2019, 2.6% earnings growth took £164.35 to £168.6231, and the Order set £168.60. So under the guarantee the rate can sit a few pence below the earnings path. The parameter's documentation and its test now say so.
create_economic_assumption_indices no longer rounds the triple lock index to 5 decimal places, as it already did not for the earnings uprating index. Rounding it added up to about 3e-6 to the index's yearly growth, enough to tip a rate to the other 5p.
Partial awards follow, as HL10770 describes: new_state_pension and basic_state_pension pay a share of the full rate, so a partial award rises by the rounded full rate's percentage. The model's additional State Pension follows September CPI and does not change.

Invariants (all tested)

For both rates:

The projection leaves published rates as stated.
Every projected rate (2027–2039) is a whole number of 5p.
Each projected year is the previous year's rate times that April's triple lock rate, to the nearest 5p, so within 2.5p of the unrounded product.
Differential against a published figure: April 2027 gives HM Treasury's £13,036.40 a year, and the £93.28 of tax the explainer says that income bears.
A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension has total income of 52 weeks at the projected rate, the Pension Tax Allowance threshold, in 2027-28 to 2029-30 (to the float32 precision simulations hold).
The rounding is a parameter. Each reform route (reform dict, parameter changes, before data load) moves the projection by it. Zero gives the unrounded chain, and the baseline stays current law. A rate a reform states for a year stays as stated.
A changed triple lock rate or index moves the projection, at full precision. A 3.9% triple lock for April 2028 makes April 2030 exactly £273.675, which rounds up to £273.70; with the index stored to 5 decimal places it would give £273.65, and the test catches that. It also checks £273.725, which halves up takes to £273.75 and halves to even would take down.
Properties (Hypothesis):
- rounding lands on the grid, within half a unit, idempotently and monotonically;
- uprating matches the rule, and a rise never lowers the rate;
- project_weekly_rate on any synthetic path equals the chained rule;
- a triple lock rate set by reform feeds the chain.

Existing tests in test_process_time_reforms.py and test_triple_lock_statutory_inputs.py used to accept the unrounded product (abs=0.006). They now check the nearest-5p chain exactly.

Impact

CI aggregate impact (certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25, main vs this branch)

Pending: the Aggregate impact check on this head will post it.

Pension Tax Allowance under #2719 (in-engine), certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25

This ran #2719's head (c086c49) against #2719 merged with this branch (local merge). Weighted figures, from Microsimulation on the certified dataset (1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd…).

	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Threshold (52 × full new SP)	£13,036.97 → £13,036.40	£13,480.26 → £13,478.40	£13,817.30 → £13,816.40
Full allowance	£94 → £94	£183 → £182	£250 → £250
Cost	£43.6m → £43.6m	£127.4m → £126.5m	£215.3m → £215.1m
Gainers	775,000 (no change)	1,158,000 (no change to the nearest thousand)	1,458,000 (no change)
On the taper, still paying tax	479,000 (no change)	639,000 → 638,000	851,000 (no change)
State Pension spending	−£6m	−£7m	−£7m
Pension Credit	+£1m	+£1m	+£1m
Income tax	−£1m	−£1m	−£1m

In this dataset every record on the full new State Pension also has some additional State Pension (most often £43 to £46 a year), so nobody sits exactly at the threshold, before or after. The change in 2028-29 comes from the full allowance: 20% × (£13,478.40 − £12,570) = £181.68 rounds up to £182, where the unrounded £182.05 rounded up to £183.

Pension Tax Allowance on the Budget dashboard's basis

This used the dashboard's microsimulation build (pe-uk 2.151.0 with this change overlaid, OBR October 2026 forecast) against the run behind the Neidle 53% note. The dashboard already set the threshold from the rate rounded to 5p, so only incomes move.

	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30
Cost	£41.5m → £41.5m	£112.5m → £112.6m	£193.0m → £193.0m
Gainers	668,000 → 667,000	1,060,000 → 1,064,000	1,363,000 → 1,363,000
On the taper, still paying tax	256,000 → 250,000	557,000 → 387,000	478,000 → 468,000
of whom at 53.3%	241,000 → 235,000	524,000 → 353,000	438,000 → 428,000
of whom at 52.3% (Scottish starter rate)	15,000 → 15,000	33,000 → 33,000	40,000 → 40,000
Only the full new SP, on the taper paying tax	under 1,000 → under 1,000	174,000 → under 1,000	under 1,000 → under 1,000

Before, people whose only income was the full new State Pension sat 57p, £1.86 and 90p above the threshold. In 2028-29 that left about 174,000 of them on the taper, paying about 67p each. Now they sit at the threshold: their allowance covers all their tax. The 2028-29 count of people on the taper still paying tax falls from 557,000 to 387,000, close to the 384,000 an earlier analysis got by setting that group aside.

Interaction with #2719

#2719's Pension Tax Allowance takes its threshold from this rate, so the two interact. Merged together, four of its test cases need new expectations: Jonathan (£44.19 → £44, now the explainer's figure), the Scottish taper case, the last pound of the taper, and the 2028-29 case (full allowance £183 → £182). Its variable documentation also mentions the unrounded £13,036.97. The comment on #2719 carries a patch that makes all 15 cases pass on the merge.

Axiom

axiom: n/a: a forecast convention for rates no Order has set yet. s.150A(4) leaves the rounding to the Secretary of State, and the queued s.150A issue, TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#366, excludes any rounding convention for that reason.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

DWP applies each review's percentage to the current full weekly rates of the basic and new State Pensions and rounds the results to the nearest 5p (HL10770; EMs to SI 2017/260-2020/234), and HM Treasury's forecast baseline projects them the same way (Budget 2026 policy costings, Annex A). The model instead multiplied the last published rate by the triple lock index's growth, unrounded, so the full new State Pension was £250.71 for 2027-28 against the £250.70 behind the Pension Tax Allowance explainer's £13,036.40. A generation step now fills each rate's projected years from the year before, rounded to gov.dwp.state_pension.weekly_rate_rounding (5p). The triple lock index is no longer rounded to five decimals, which put up to about 3e-6 of noise into its yearly growth. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Simulations hold float32, so 52 weeks at £250.70 comes back as £13,036.399. The tests now compare simulated incomes to half a penny, which still separates them from the unrounded rates' 57p to £1.86. The synthetic projection property builds its parameters under a node, as mark_as_modified needs a parent. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

github-actions · 2026-10-29T16:38:21Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base daec84d5b6 against head d1c142216e, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
Capital gains tax	0	0	-£842	-£1,081	-£1,123	-£518	-£1,628

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	0	0	-£5.8m	-£7.0m	-£7.1m	-£3.0m	-£9.5m
Pension Credit	0	0	+£0.6m	+£0.1m	+£0.7m	+£0.2m	+£1.0m
Universal Credit	0	0	+£3,805	+£9,408	+£5,130	+£2,857	+£5,909
Housing Benefit	0	0	+£26,990	+£35,837	+£32,738	+£12,494	+£34,682
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	+£11,760	+£10,182	+£14,248	+£5,994	+£19,965
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	0	0	+512	0	0
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	0	-£1.0m	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
Government spending	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.9m †	-£6.4m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once	0 †	0 †	+£4.1m †	+£5.4m †	+£5.0m †	+£2.2m †	+£6.6m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
household_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	0	-£1.0m	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£0.6m	-£1.8m
gov_spending	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.9m †	-£6.4m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
household_benefits	0 †	0 †	-£5.1m †	-£6.9m †	-£6.4m †	-£2.8m †	-£8.5m †
gov_balance	0 †	0 †	+£4.1m †	+£5.4m †	+£5.0m †	+£2.2m †	+£6.6m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	0 †	0 †	-£4.1m †	-£5.4m †	-£5.0m †	-£2.2m †	-£6.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	0	0	-£4.1m	-£5.4m	-£5.0m	-£2.2m	-£6.6m

Poverty rates

Measure	2028-29	2029-30	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.01pp	+0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	+0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	+0.01pp	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.00pp

People in poverty

Measure	2028-29	2029-30	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-677	+393	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-677	+393	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	+694	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	+694	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	0	+7
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+7

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.01 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.10 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.14 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.38 †	-£0.14 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.27 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.17 †	-£0.15 †	-£0.18 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.47 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.16 †	-£0.14 †	-£0.19 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.07 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.98 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.16 †	-£1.89 †	-£0.21 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.98 †	-£3.82 †	-£2.49 †	+£2.23 †	-£0.20 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.12 †	+£1.99 †	+£3.23 †	-£0.07 †	-£0.21 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.14 †	-£0.24 †	-£0.19 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.25 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.15 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.20 †	-£0.11 †	-£0.24 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.07 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.09 †	-£0.04 †	-£0.12 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£48,727	-£50,314	-£48,117	-£25,501	-£67,270
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£3,824	-£7,316	-£6,463	-£2,595	-£8,216
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£35,849	+£21,444	+£36,805	+£4,932	+£26,193
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£1	+£0	-£34	-£17	-£22
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£2,887	-£1,398	-£3,862	-£1,574	-£4,070
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£128	+£13	-£323	+£400	-£209
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£254	-£279	-£70	+£465	-£415
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£640	-£614	-£1,088	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£292	-£28	-£9	-£2	-£35
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£0.4m	-£4.4m	+£0.5m	+£0.2m	+£0.8m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£50,273	-£52,262	-£48,693	-£25,495	-£69,646
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	-£4,059	-£7,208	-£6,571	-£3,092	-£8,625
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	-£36,868	+£23,224	+£28,819	+£9,496	+£17,567
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£2,953	+£1,631	+£3,684	+£2,144	+£4,206
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	-£268	-£585	-£962	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£294	+£20	+£10	+£6	+£45
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	-£0.6m	-£0.7m	-£0.7m	-£0.3m	-£0.9m

Household net income by decile

Every decile's mean change rounds to £0 in every year.

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,774,885 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,687,092 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `daec84d5b6`	uk 2.164.4 (files `db016dc3f222`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`aa8e73e3b48d`	`1eac2ca06b91`	1866.8s
head	#2751 merged into main `d1c142216e`	uk 2.164.4 (files `753294ccce12`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`aa8e73e3b48d`	`1eac2ca06b91`	1854.26s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.23bn	£334.00bn	£349.45bn	£365.10bn	£383.16bn	£397.71bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£256.88bn	£266.66bn	£272.70bn	£278.97bn	£285.24bn	£291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.21bn	£2.27bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.59bn	£26.54bn	£26.58bn	£26.26bn	£25.53bn	£24.40bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.72bn	£129.49bn	£132.99bn	£136.66bn	£140.42bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.03bn	£7.30bn	£7.51bn	£7.65bn	£7.84bn	£8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.48bn	£80.52bn	£83.04bn	£85.11bn	£86.31bn	£87.90bn	£88.58bn
Housing Benefit	£8.56bn	£8.89bn	£9.24bn	£9.48bn	£9.72bn	£9.99bn	£10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.20bn	£2.31bn	£2.45bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.82bn	£0.84bn	£0.86bn	£0.88bn	£0.90bn	£0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.35bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.59bn	£0.59bn	£0.57bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.62bn	£3.75bn	£3.83bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.38bn	£2.44bn	£2.51bn	£2.56bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,486k	1,480k	1,474k	1,455k	1,453k	1,455k	1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,357k	6,349k	6,350k	6,318k	6,307k	6,299k	6,253k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,245k	1,246k	1,229k	1,229k	1,229k	1,232k
Council Tax Reduction	3,176k	3,195k	3,200k	3,215k	3,225k	3,235k	3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,044k	1,046k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	355k	353k	351k	340k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,025k	1,021k	1,022k	1,008k	1,005k	991k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	804k	806k	809k	814k	814k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,074k	1,076k	1,079k	1,089k	1,090k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£892.00bn	£935.14bn	£979.55bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.13bn	£1,089.13bn	£1,122.37bn
Government spending	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.01bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.63bn †	£391.59bn †	£428.63bn †	£454.09bn †	£484.62bn †	£512.85bn †	£538.35bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£892.00bn	£935.14bn	£979.55bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.13bn	£1,089.13bn	£1,122.37bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.87bn	£549.93bn	£573.92bn	£598.89bn	£624.26bn	£645.89bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.15bn	£512.74bn	£541.54bn	£564.86bn	£589.61bn	£614.72bn	£636.09bn
gov_spending	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.01bn †
household_benefits	£529.37bn †	£543.55bn †	£550.93bn †	£559.76bn †	£567.52bn †	£576.28bn †	£584.01bn †
gov_balance	£362.63bn †	£391.59bn †	£428.63bn †	£454.09bn †	£484.62bn †	£512.85bn †	£538.35bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.68bn †	£1,685.25bn †	£1,716.89bn †	£1,749.82bn †	£1,781.12bn †	£1,819.78bn †	£1,862.63bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.57bn	£1,497.73bn	£1,532.81bn	£1,567.21bn	£1,600.00bn	£1,638.04bn	£1,679.20bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.3%	15.6%	16.4%	16.3%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.7%	22.3%	23.3%	22.9%	23.1%	23.2%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.1%	13.9%	14.7%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%	14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.5%	14.0%	13.9%	14.0%	13.9%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.1%	22.0%	22.5%	22.7%	23.0%	23.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.3%	32.2%	32.4%	32.5%	33.0%	33.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.9%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.0%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.6%	13.1%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.3%	16.4%	16.3%	16.3%	16.3%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.9%	23.4%	23.3%	22.9%	22.8%	22.9%	23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.3%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.7%	13.9%	13.9%	13.8%	13.9%	14.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	21.0%	21.2%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.1%	31.1%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.7%	11.7%	11.8%	12.0%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,278k	10,837k	11,403k	11,358k	11,478k	11,506k	11,643k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,688k	3,332k	3,496k	3,437k	3,477k	3,499k	3,545k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,965k	5,921k	6,308k	6,354k	6,417k	6,426k	6,517k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,584k	1,599k	1,567k	1,583k	1,580k	1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,944k	14,662k	15,296k	15,679k	15,863k	16,047k	16,331k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,975k	4,689k	4,832k	4,863k	4,898k	4,986k	5,125k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,463k	8,491k	8,965k	9,325k	9,464k	9,549k	9,669k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,506k	1,482k	1,500k	1,491k	1,501k	1,513k	1,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,750k	11,332k	11,389k	11,348k	11,358k	11,410k	11,702k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,872k	3,504k	3,496k	3,434k	3,431k	3,451k	3,577k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,159k	6,103k	6,301k	6,349k	6,363k	6,388k	6,540k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,720k	1,724k	1,592k	1,565k	1,563k	1,571k	1,585k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,849k	14,583k	14,728k	14,809k	14,885k	15,005k	15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,942k	4,664k	4,660k	4,663k	4,681k	4,702k	4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,460k	8,679k	8,821k	8,877k	8,964k	9,056k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,482k	1,459k	1,389k	1,325k	1,327k	1,340k	1,366k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3080	0.3057	0.3063	0.3062	0.3068	0.3073	0.3089

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,681 †	£17,895 †	£17,904 †	£18,146 †	£18,308 †	£18,581 †	£18,739 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,939 †	£28,874 †	£28,683 †	£29,083 †	£29,354 †	£29,679 †	£30,165 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,320 †	£35,455 †	£36,108 †	£36,626 †	£37,217 †	£37,722 †	£38,219 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,933 †	£40,603 †	£41,873 †	£42,783 †	£43,423 †	£43,928 †	£44,548 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,240 †	£45,443 †	£45,789 †	£46,994 †	£47,728 †	£48,919 †	£50,228 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,900 †	£49,126 †	£50,886 †	£51,724 †	£52,598 †	£54,204 †	£55,195 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,684 †	£56,509 †	£57,443 †	£57,968 †	£59,086 †	£59,211 †	£60,666 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,789 †	£70,704 †	£71,779 †	£73,356 †	£73,945 †	£75,356 †	£77,241 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,890 †	£80,992 †	£82,906 †	£84,246 †	£85,584 †	£87,168 †	£89,597 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,005 †	£120,262 †	£122,221 †	£124,681 †	£126,775 †	£129,108 †	£131,486 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.64bn	£6.88bn	£7.04bn	£7.26bn	£7.48bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.23bn	£4.43bn	£4.70bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.80bn	£-3.92bn	£-3.98bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.21bn	£-1.96bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.39bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.17bn	£-1.06bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.37bn	£-20.88bn	£-21.32bn	£-21.52bn	£-21.86bn	£-22.25bn	£-22.42bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.73bn	£12.03bn	£12.30bn	£12.61bn	£13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.71bn	£26.63bn	£27.24bn	£27.87bn	£28.50bn	£29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.25bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.78bn	£-8.01bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.14bn	£-8.42bn	£-8.55bn	£-8.89bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.80bn	£7.01bn	£7.21bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.93bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.16bn	£-4.25bn	£-4.32bn	£-4.38bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.34bn	£20.87bn	£21.30bn	£21.52bn	£21.81bn	£22.20bn	£22.41bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	£12.94bn	£13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.51bn	£26.42bn	£27.03bn	£27.65bn	£28.28bn	£28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.18bn	£3.28bn	£3.38bn	£3.44bn	£3.50bn	£3.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.03bn	£12.47bn	£12.97bn

A 3.9% triple lock for April 2028 takes the new State Pension to £273.675 exactly in April 2030. The model gives £273.70, and an index stored to five decimal places would give £273.65, so a new test covers both the halves-up convention and the index's precision. Another test checks that a rate a reform states for a year stays as stated. The earnings-path guarantee holds for the uprating percentages; the weekly rate then rounds to the nearest 5p, which s.150A(4) allows below the minimum (April 2019: £168.6231 became £168.60). Its test now checks the percentages and the cash chain exactly, not a 5-dp tolerance. The rounding parameter's documentation now names the reform routes that move it, and both it and the projection step say halves up is a convention: no published rate has landed on a half. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

£273.675 is 5,473.5 units of 5p, which both rules round up, so the tie test also checks £273.725 (5,474.5 units), which halves up takes to £273.75 and halves to even would take down. The rounding parameter's documentation now names only the reforms checked to move it: whole fiscal years set through a reform dictionary or parameter changes. General uprating on main sat within a third of a penny of the unrounded chain through 2039, not 0.1p. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 29, 2026 12:25

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026

Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719

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Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April - #2751

Round projected State Pension weekly rates to the nearest 5p each April#2751
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Pension Tax Allowance under #2719 (in-engine), certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25

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