Review follow-ups from recently merged PRs (docs, comments and tests) by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2703 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-27T22:19:43Z

Review leftovers from recently merged PRs, batched into one PR. No formula, parameter value or input changes.

Done

Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 r3 N1–N3: the exact replacement comments in test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py, housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible.py (docstring) and housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py.
Exclude disregarded income from Housing Benefit assessment #2211: removed the duplicate uksi/2006/214/regulation/29 entry from housing_benefit_applicable_income's reference.
Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI #2575: september_cpi_uprating.yaml (it is under policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/, not parameters/). The worked figure now reads 29.20 x 52 = 1518.40, which matches the test's expected output; scottish_child_payment annualises by WEEKS_IN_YEAR (52).
utils/pensions.py (from the review of Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066): the relevant_uk_earnings docstring now names SSP, SMP and SPP, the three variables employment_benefits adds into taxable_employment_income.
Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535: rewrapped the economic assumptions README paragraph to 79 characters, and joined the short reflowed comment line in wales_childcare_offer.yaml.
Zero-rate employer NI for under-21s and apprentices under 25 #2505 r8 P3: the module docstring of test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py now names full-year Category A director status and apprentice status, which the rows strategy draws.
Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535 r9 P3-3: test_wales_childcare_offer_income_sources.py checks that the 40 sources' adds/subtracts closures are pairwise disjoint. They are.
Presume a member 20+ years younger is the claimant's child when no roles are supplied #2082 Sol P3-1: three Hypothesis properties in test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py: supplied role vectors are returned unchanged; widening an unflagged member's gap never makes a presumed child the partner; once identified parents take priority, presumed children and partners are disjoint. All pass. The existing two-other-parents exception is kept.

Source-checked follow-ups (hub, `ae1c533`)

The cloud session couldn't reach legislation.gov.uk or gov.wales. The hub's review fetched the sources, and these are applied from it:

Exclude disregarded income from Housing Benefit assessment #2211, NI Child Benefit disregard: the retained nisr/2006/405/schedule/6/paragraph/64 link shows the old £1.20/65p text. It now cites SR 2009/276 reg 3, which inserts the full disregard as paragraph 64.
Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 property-test comment (item 5): documented the even-pound base-income assumption beside the invariant-2 margin assertion in test_statutory_paternity_pay_income_tax_properties.py. The generated base incomes are even pounds, so PAY's 388.64 -> 389 pair cannot cross a personal-allowance taper-rounding step (personal_allowance.py rounds the tapered allowance up).
Split total income into programme-specific concepts #2620 r3 P3-2: the non-dependant exemptions are SI 2006/213 reg 74(6), (7), (8) and (10); paragraph (9) is a gross-income disregard. Fixed in household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction.py and housing_benefit_non_dep_remunerative_work.yaml.
Split total income into programme-specific concepts #2620 r2 P3-4: remunerative_work_hours.yaml now also cites SR 2006/405 reg 6(1), which sets the same 16 hours.
Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535, the lump-sum comment: the July 2020 guidance, page 7 has no question on lump sums. Question 8's current-tax-year test supports the other reading, so the comment now names it beside question 9.
Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 N1–N3 citations: re-checked against SI 2006/213 Sch 4, SI 2006/214 Sch 4 and SR 2006/406 Sch 5 para 4; no change needed.

Impact: none; comments, citations, docs and tests only.

axiom: n/a: no rule or parameter value changes

Tests

uv run pytest test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py -n 4: 18 passed.
uv run pytest test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py test_wales_childcare_offer_income_sources.py -n 4: 98 passed.
policyengine-core test on september_cpi_uprating.yaml and wales_childcare_offer.yaml: 48 passed. On the HB applicable_income YAML directory: 145 passed.
uvx ruff format --check . and git diff --check: clean.

Generated by Claude Code

Follow-ups N1-N3 from the review of #2225: the test comment names the disability premium route, the eligibility docstring names the carer (paragraph 4) route, and the disregard comment lists paras 3 and 4/5. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

The reference tuple listed uksi/2006/214/regulation/29 twice; keep the first. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

scottish_child_payment annualises by WEEKS_IN_YEAR (52), so the expected 1518.40 is 29.20 x 52, not 29.20 x 365.25 / 7. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

relevant_uk_earnings reads taxable_employment_income, which adds employment_benefits: SSP, SMP and SPP. The docstring named only SSP and SMP (found in the review of #2066). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

#2535 left a long line in the economic assumptions README; rewrap it to the file's 79-character width. Wording unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

#2535 left a short line in this YAML comment; join it so the block wraps to 79 characters. Wording unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

…ties The rows strategy draws is_full_year_category_a_director and is_apprentice for every person; the module docstring's 'for any' list now names both (follow-up from the review of #2505). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

Follow-up r9 P3-3 from the review of #2535: the 40 listed sources' adds/subtracts closures are pairwise disjoint, so no income is counted twice. They are today. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

Supplied role vectors are returned unchanged; widening an unflagged member's gap never makes a presumed child the partner; once identified parents take priority, presumed children and partners are disjoint. The reference's presumption is factored out so the properties can read it. All three pass; no model code changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-27T22:20:14Z

Ready for hub review

Head: 6cfab561d8ea2a9ec72e86a5ea2eef634690f7d3
Branch: claude/hub-review-followups-yzjmvi. This session's harness pins pushes to that branch, so it is not hub-review-followups-2026-10-25. The changelog fragment keeps the requested name.

Items

Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 r3 N1–N3, done in 71a7a28. Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 merged 2026-10-25T18:56:05Z.
- N1: policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py:373
- N2: .../housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible.py:5-6
- N3: .../housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py:45-47
This is the exact text you supplied. I read the formula and it matches the stated reason: it returns where(housing_benefit_pension_age_regulations_apply, pension, working), and the WTC term and carer_premium > 0 appear only in pension. I could not fetch the paragraph citations themselves (see below).
Exclude disregarded income from Housing Benefit assessment #2211
- The duplicate reference is removed in f0d9ba4, at .../housing_benefit_applicable_income.py:149. I kept the first entry, at :137.
- Skipped: the NI Sch 6 para 64 link to SR 2009/276. www.legislation.gov.uk does not resolve from this session (the proxy refuses the CONNECT; WebFetch gets ENOTFOUND), so I could not check the paragraph. The link at :139 is unchanged.
Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI #2575, done in eeb483f, at policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/september_cpi_uprating.yaml:9. The file is under tests/policy, not parameters/. It now reads 29.20 x 52 = 1518.40. That matches the test's own output (scottish_child_payment: [0, 1518.40]), and scottish_child_payment.py:29 multiplies by WEEKS_IN_YEAR, which is 52 (checked by importing it from policyengine_uk.model_api).
utils/pensions.py, done in 7edc2a4, at policyengine_uk/utils/pensions.py:30-31. relevant_uk_earnings reads taxable_employment_income (employment_income + employment_benefits − deductions). employment_benefits adds statutory_sick_pay, statutory_maternity_pay and statutory_paternity_pay, so the docstring now says "SSP, SMP and SPP (employment_benefits)".
Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 property-test comment, skipped. Charge the winter fuel payment back through income tax, person by person #2066 added test_total_income_net_pay_properties.py and test_winter_fuel_payment_charge_means_tests_properties.py; neither has PAY/WAGES strategies or a personal allowance margin assertion. Among the files it modified, test_statutory_paternity_pay_income_tax_properties.py has PAY/WAGES, but PAY contains 388.64 (not even pounds) and I found no personal allowance margin assertion there. I didn't want to guess which assertion was meant.
Split total income into programme-specific concepts #2620 r3 P3-2, skipped. I could not reach legislation.gov.uk, so SI 2006/213 reg 74 was not checked. Text unchanged.
Split total income into programme-specific concepts #2620 r2 P3-4, skipped. I could not reach legislation.gov.uk, so SR 2006/405 reg 6 was not checked.
Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535
- Lump-sum question number: skipped. www.gov.wales does not resolve, so I could not confirm what question 8 of the July 2020 income guidance covers. The current comment cites question 10 for the recurring-income reading.
- README rewrap: done in 3f427f4, at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/README.md:240-242. It is wrapped to 79 characters, the file's prose width, with the wording unchanged.
- Reflowed YAML comment: done in 791fa63, at policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/welsh_government/childcare_offer/wales_childcare_offer.yaml:487-488. History (c8f6cb58) shows the block was reflowed when "secondary" became "tertiary". The original wording can't sit on one line within 79 characters, so I joined the short line into the next and kept the four-line block. The wording is unchanged.
Zero-rate employer NI for under-21s and apprentices under 25 #2505 r8 P3, done in d6f580c, at policyengine_uk/tests/test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py:16-18. The rows strategy draws director=st.booleans() and apprentice=st.booleans(), set as is_full_year_category_a_director and is_apprentice, so both are named. It also draws more_sacrifice, which the docstring already covers as salary sacrifice.
Add the Childcare Offer for Wales #2535 r9 P3-3, done in 6801838: test_listed_sources_expand_to_disjoint_variables, at policyengine_uk/tests/test_wales_childcare_offer_income_sources.py:159, plus a docstring note at :17. Each closure is {source} ∪ components(source), reusing the file's existing recursive adds/subtracts walk. All 40 are pairwise disjoint, so no overlap to report. The non-trivial closures include employment_income (5), social_security_income (10), employment_benefits (3), pip, dla, and ctc_entitlement/wtc_entitlement.
Presume a member 20+ years younger is the claimant's child when no roles are supplied #2082 Sol P3-1, done in 1df19f3, in policyengine_uk/tests/test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py. The docstring is updated at :47. The reference's presumption is factored out of claimants_or_partners into presumption() (:259-296), with the same logic. The new tests start at :1013:
- test_supplied_roles_are_returned_unchanged: arbitrary_benefit_units() with arbitrary Boolean vectors.
- test_a_wider_gap_never_makes_a_presumed_child_the_partner: uses a new generator, widened_gap_pairs, because arbitrary_benefit_units gave about 1 qualifying case in 134 units; the new one gives about 37 in 92. Cases are kept only where the reference claimant (the head), every flag, every other member and everyone's HBAI adulthood are unchanged. It asserts that the model never selects the member before or after.
- test_effective_children_and_partners_are_disjoint: effective child = presumed and not (HBAI adult and is_parent). The model's selected members never include one.
The two-other-parents exception in assert_structure is untouched, and no new property asserts that the head stays the claimant. All three pass, so there is no counterexample.

Changelog: changelog.d/hub-review-followups-2026-10-25.changed.md, in 6cfab56.

Tests run (locally, `-n 4`)

test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py: 18 passed (15 existing + 3 new). The last commit's docstring edit came after this run.
test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py, test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py and test_wales_childcare_offer_income_sources.py: 98 passed.
policyengine-core test:
- september_cpi_uprating.yaml + wales_childcare_offer.yaml: 48 passed (5 + 43 cases).
- .../housing_benefit/applicable_income/ directory: 145 passed.
uvx ruff format --check .: clean. git diff --check origin/main: clean.
None needed Hugging Face data.

CI on `6cfab56`

All check runs succeeded: Lint, Changes, Changelog fragments, Fix evidence, Documentation build, Release build, Install + smoke-import (py3.11 to 3.14), Test / YAML, Test / Python 1/6 to 6/6, and Aggregate impact. The aggregate impact report shows no change in any year. Its one failing check (sign:vat) fails on base 6030cbc0 too.

Judgment calls and sources

No legal source was fetched in this session. www.legislation.gov.uk and www.gov.wales are both outside this session's network allowlist. Items 2 (NI link), 6 and 7, and the item 8 question number, are skipped for that reason. The Add Housing Benefit special £20 earnings disregard #2225 N1–N3 text is applied verbatim as supplied, and its paragraph citations were not independently checked.
PR body: I used the format you gave, so there is no Fixes # line.

Generated by Claude Code

github-actions · 2026-10-27T23:25:28Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 53d1279b79 against head 835d8ac03e, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `53d1279b79`	uk 2.162.16 (files `e255ddac63b6`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`be4c2d453409`	`1eac2ca06b91`	1945.54s
head	#2703 merged into main `835d8ac03e`	uk 2.162.16 (files `7b37944e6b00`), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	`be4c2d453409`	`1eac2ca06b91`	1935.35s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
household_benefits	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
gov_balance	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.43bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.62bn †	£1,781.68bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.30bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.67bn	£1,640.49bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.6%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,049k	10,466k	10,734k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,210k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,845k	5,746k	6,021k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,373k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,419k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,366k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,963 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,381 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,850 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,145 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,289 †	£47,328 †	£48,286 †	£49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,219 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

- Item 2: cite SR 2009/276 reg 3, which inserts the full NI Child Benefit disregard as Sch 6 para 64, instead of the old fractional text. - Item 5: document the even-pound base-income assumption beside the invariant-2 margin assertion. - Item 6: the non-dependant exemptions are reg 74(6), (7), (8) and (10); reg 74(9) is a gross-income disregard. - Item 7: add the NI equivalent, SR 2006/405 reg 6(1), to remunerative_work_hours. - Item 8: name question 8's current-tax-year test as the alternative reading of the Welsh lump-sum treatment. Comments and references only; no formula or value changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-28T08:53:30Z

UK hub: enqueued at ae1c533a8952541c7475dc50fddf46d5f03f8887 (merge queue).

Review r1b: GPT-6.1 Sol, Subfleet 20261028-031121-review-2703-r1b. It approved 6cfab561 with no P1 or P2. Its five P3 source fixes, for items 2, 5, 6, 7 and 8, were applied word for word as ae1c533.
Delta review: GPT-6.1 Sol, Subfleet 20261028-034804-review-2703-delta. It approved ae1c533 with no findings. Ruff is clean, and 17 cases passed in housing_benefit_non_dep_remunerative_work.yaml.
Scope: comments, citations, docs and tests only. No formula or value changes.
Gates: gh pr checks exits 0, the PR is MERGEABLE, and it has no change requests.

Resolve housing_benefit_applicable_income_disregard.py, where main's #2703 corrected the comment on the standard-disregard line this branch replaced. Keep the shared applied-standard call and move main's corrected paragraph citation into housing_benefit_applied_standard_earnings_disregard.py, where the special earnings disregard is now read. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

claude added 10 commits October 27, 2026 22:05

Remove duplicate HB applicable income reference from #2211

f0d9ba4

The reference tuple listed uksi/2006/214/regulation/29 twice; keep the first. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

Add changelog fragment for the review follow-ups

6cfab56

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01LwQq6FaRutJG2o4ATFgPYn

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 28, 2026 08:21

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 28, 2026

Merged via the queue into main with commit dbc6446 Oct 28, 2026
20 of 21 checks passed

MaxGhenis deleted the claude/hub-review-followups-yzjmvi branch October 28, 2026 10:21

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 28, 2026

Add Housing Benefit permitted-work earnings disregard #2219

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Review follow-ups from recently merged PRs (docs, comments and tests) - #2703

Review follow-ups from recently merged PRs (docs, comments and tests)#2703
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

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Spending by benefit and service

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Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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