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Report Dependabot runs as skipped in Aggregate impact, not as failures - #2665

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Report Dependabot runs as skipped in Aggregate impact, not as failures#2665
MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026 •
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Fixes #2664

Defect

Every Dependabot pull request fails the Aggregate impact check. The workflow means to report such runs as skipped.

Dependabot runs get no secrets, so HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN is empty. "Measure base, then head" in .github/workflows/aggregate-impact.yaml sees that, writes {"status": "skipped"} to measured/head/result.json and exits 0. But that exit comes before the three lines that copy the tool into $RUNNER_TEMP/tool. "Compare base with head" then runs python -m pe_uk_aggregate_impact compare with PYTHONPATH="$RUNNER_TEMP/tool", and fails:

/home/runner/work/policyengine-uk/policyengine-uk/head/.venv/bin/python: No module named pe_uk_aggregate_impact

That gives status=1, a "FAIL: The comparison did not finish" comment, and a failed job from "Fail on a structural failure". This happened on #2623 (run 40034956076) and #2624. #2540 passed only once a maintainer pushed to its branch (anth-volk's changelog fragment, then a merge of main), which made the runs non-Dependabot ones with data access. The regression came in with fd94415, which moved the tool copy out of the compare step.

Fix

  • Move the tool setup (tool=, mkdir -p, cp -R) to the top of "Measure base, then head", before any early exit. Nothing else changes.
  • The comparison already handles a skipped head, so no tool change is needed:
    • compare() returns status skipped (compare.py, the head.get("status") == "skipped" branch).
    • cmd_compare exits 1 only for fail.
    • render() writes "Aggregate impact on certified data: skipped".
  • Other runs with no token are unchanged. A non-Dependabot run with no token still fails with "HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN is not available". The cp now runs first, but every pull request head carries policyengine_uk/utils/aggregate_impact; a dispatch of a head older than the tool fails at the same cp it always did.

Invariant: a Dependabot run passes the check and its comment says it was skipped. Any other same-repository run with no token still fails; fork pull requests skip the job through its if:, as before.

Tests

test_a_dependabot_run_is_reported_as_skipped_and_passes runs the workflow's own "Measure base, then head" and "Compare base with head" scripts, as the file's other step tests do (run_step, bash -eo pipefail). The setup is the one a Dependabot run sees:

  • ACTOR=dependabot[bot] and an empty token;
  • a head holding its own copy of the tool;
  • a .venv/bin/python that runs the test's interpreter;
  • RUNNER_TEMP and GITHUB_STEP_SUMMARY pointed at the test's temporary directory.

It checks:

  • both steps exit 0;
  • status=0 is written to GITHUB_OUTPUT;
  • the comment says "skipped";
  • "Fail on a structural failure" still keys on that status.

test_only_dependabot_may_skip_a_run_with_no_data_access covers the invariant's other half. It runs the measure step as a maintainer with no token and checks that it fails with the token error and writes no result.

Run locally (pytest, one process, existing venv; ruff 0.17.0, the version uv.lock pins):

  • The Dependabot test on main's workflow: fails with the same error as CI: No module named pe_uk_aggregate_impact, assert '1' == '0'.
  • The Dependabot test with this fix: passes. The maintainer test passes on both, as it should: the fix doesn't change that path's outcome.
  • The whole file with this fix: 17 passed.
  • ruff format --check and ruff check on the test file: clean.

Impact

CI only. No model, parameter or data change, so no aggregate moves. The fixed fragment follows #2522, the last fix to this workflow.

#2623 and #2624 have had main merged into their branches, which gives them runs with data access; they don't wait on this PR.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_aggregate_impact_workflow.py::test_a_dependabot_run_is_reported_as_skipped_and_passes

axiom: n/a: CI tooling

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 25, 2026 06:08
@MaxGhenis @claude
Report Dependabot runs as skipped in Aggregate impact
8d6bff7 
The measure step exited early for Dependabot, which has no data access,
before it copied the tool into $RUNNER_TEMP/tool. The compare step then
failed with "No module named pe_uk_aggregate_impact", so every Dependabot
pull request failed the check. Set the tool up before any early exit, and
test the measure and compare steps as a Dependabot run.

Fixes #2664

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Test that only Dependabot may skip, and drop the fragment's list marker
050f52f 
The review of #2665 found the second half of the invariant untested: any
other same-repository run with no token still fails. The new test runs the
measure step as a maintainer with no token and checks it fails with the
token error and writes no result. It passes on main and with the fix.

Towncrier adds the bullet itself, so the fragment no longer starts with one.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 25, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 1e98e09443 against head 4f7d5b9676, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 1e98e09443 uk 2.158.2 (files 838871a18d12), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 2ffbd02139c0 9a54a111ed04 1729.68s
head #2665 merged into main 4f7d5b9676 uk 2.158.2 (files 838871a18d12), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 2ffbd02139c0 9a54a111ed04 1737.68s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.00bn £158.47bn £163.28bn £167.71bn £174.87bn £180.28bn £187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £900.12bn £943.23bn £981.52bn £1,015.29bn £1,054.39bn £1,090.56bn £1,130.72bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £371.25bn † £399.56bn † £430.10bn † £457.58bn † £488.27bn † £515.79bn † £547.98bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £900.12bn £943.23bn £981.52bn £1,015.29bn £1,054.39bn £1,090.56bn £1,130.72bn
household_tax £496.79bn £527.48bn £554.39bn £577.61bn £603.19bn £627.52bn £654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
gov_balance £371.25bn † £399.56bn † £430.10bn † £457.58bn † £488.27bn † £515.79bn † £547.98bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.46bn † £1,688.65bn † £1,719.42bn † £1,750.39bn † £1,781.36bn † £1,820.67bn † £1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.62bn £1,504.74bn £1,537.75bn £1,569.43bn £1,602.65bn £1,640.38bn £1,686.54bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.6% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.2% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.3% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.2% 31.2% 30.9% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,039k 10,465k 10,769k 10,890k 10,992k 11,057k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,171k 3,230k 3,240k 3,280k 3,300k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,843k 5,744k 6,034k 6,134k 6,183k 6,218k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,616k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,840k 14,418k 14,804k 15,005k 15,265k 15,430k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,667k 4,687k 4,755k 4,820k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,401k 8,356k 8,734k 8,907k 9,048k 9,135k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,503k 1,453k 1,404k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,889k 11,389k 11,463k 11,483k 11,421k 11,523k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,915k 3,517k 3,517k 3,489k 3,449k 3,489k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,197k 6,128k 6,335k 6,397k 6,384k 6,437k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,596k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,943k 14,585k 14,741k 14,808k 14,951k 15,039k 15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,967k 4,674k 4,650k 4,630k 4,691k 4,712k 4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,441k 8,448k 8,700k 8,836k 8,916k 8,976k 9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,535k 1,463k 1,391k 1,342k 1,344k 1,352k 1,463k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3084 0.3058 0.3064 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,768 † £17,862 † £17,836 † £17,888 † £18,172 † £18,307 † £18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,982 † £28,857 † £28,628 † £28,890 † £29,105 † £29,623 † £30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,464 † £36,042 † £36,502 † £36,778 † £37,311 † £38,128 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,272 † £40,694 † £41,875 † £42,379 † £43,101 † £43,923 † £44,180 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,318 † £44,626 † £45,564 † £46,292 † £47,361 † £48,268 † £49,578 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,188 † £49,519 † £50,747 † £51,489 † £52,191 † £53,186 † £54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,167 † £57,131 † £57,759 † £58,177 † £58,914 † £59,920 † £61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,198 † £70,961 † £71,804 † £73,232 † £74,253 † £75,667 † £77,424 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,493 † £81,039 † £82,842 † £84,144 † £85,534 † £87,055 † £89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,577 † £120,291 † £121,928 † £124,157 † £126,037 † £128,333 † £131,101 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.24bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.57bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 25, 2026 11:40
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 25, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 4af92c5 Oct 25, 2026
21 of 22 checks passed
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix-aggregate-impact-dependabot-skip branch October 25, 2026 14:28
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Merge audit (UK hub, Claude Opus 5.5). Landing at head 050f52f484379f518e8c75d52a40873f17622bd9.

  • Review: independent in-session Opus review, APPROVE at 8d6bff78 with P3 notes only. P3-1 (the fragment's list marker), P3-2 (a test of the invariant's other half) and P3-3 (three body sentences) were applied in 050f52f, and the reviewer confirmed APPROVE at 050f52f: the workflow blob is unchanged, the file gives 17 passed, and Changelog fragments passes with no warning.
  • Checks: every check passed at this head.
  • Defect and fix: Dependabot runs failed Aggregate impact because the measure step exited before it set up the tool. The setup now comes first, and a Dependabot run is reported as skipped. Any other same-repository run with no token still fails. Both halves are tested.
  • Impact: CI only. No model, parameter or data change.
  • Follow-up (review P3-4): once this lands, a Dependabot bump of a runtime package shows a skipped report. The hub pushes to such a branch before merging, so the report runs with data.

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Aggregate impact fails every Dependabot pull request instead of reporting it as skipped

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