Add the seven-family gambling-duty engine foundation

changelog.d/2586.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+- Added seven input-driven gambling duty families from 2024/25 to household and government taxes, including a documented casino incidence proxy.

docs/engineering/excise-duties.md

@@ -6,6 +6,11 @@ and duty on LPG and natural road fuel gas from supplied household inputs.
 diesel duty. These totals combine the different annual bases described below.
 The incidence assumption is full pass-through to consumers.
 
+The model also includes seven gambling duty families from supplied attributed
+household bases. [Household gambling duties](gambling-duties.md) documents the
+rates, casino incidence proxy, period conventions and outstanding population
+data, machine-premises and VAT work.
+
 ## Coverage and periods
 
 Alcohol, tobacco and car duty calculations cover 2024/25 to 2026/27. The alcohol

policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml

@@ -100,6 +100,12 @@ sources:
     the employer NI response incidence and the two unallocated tax changes)
     as exclusions from a total of levels; here they are heads of the totals
     that use them, zero at current law.
+  gambling_duties: >-
+    OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025, Table A.5, footnote 5,
+    includes betting and gaming duties within Other HMRC taxes. This head
+    measures only supplied household gambling bases; the other components
+    of that receipts row remain unmodelled. No Table 3.1 allocation is
+    claimed. https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_November_2025.pdf#page=195
 
 totals:
   gov_tax:
@@ -338,6 +344,26 @@ tax_heads:
       Zero for every household on policyengine-uk-data 1.58.0
       (enhanced_frs_2024_25) in every year from 2025 to 2030, measured
       2026-10-11. Issue 1874.
+  - id: gambling_duty
+    label: Betting and gaming duties
+    variable: gambling_duty
+    entity: household
+    obr_line: Other HMRC taxes
+    obr_line_note: >-
+      Betting and gaming duties belong to this row under November 2025 Table
+      A.5 footnote 5. This head provides partial row coverage only; other
+      Other HMRC taxes remain unmodelled.
+    obr_table_3_1: null
+    report_group: excise_duties
+    payer: household
+    totals: [gov_tax, household_tax]
+    sign: nonnegative
+    data_note: >-
+      Calculated from supplied nonnegative attributed dutiable bases only.
+      Missing inputs default to zero; this does not establish population
+      data adoption or calibrated receipts. Casino incidence uses a fixed
+      UK cash receipts/GB game yield proxy reviewed under issue 2587.
+      This head does not measure the residual Other HMRC taxes components.
   - id: tv_licence
     label: TV licence fee
     variable: tv_licence
@@ -604,6 +630,13 @@ exclusions:
   - {variable: wine_duty, kind: component, head: alcohol_duty}
   - {variable: spirits_duty, kind: component, head: alcohol_duty}
   - {variable: other_fermented_duty, kind: component, head: alcohol_duty}
+  - {variable: general_betting_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: pool_betting_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: remote_gaming_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: machine_games_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: gaming_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: bingo_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
+  - {variable: lottery_duty, kind: component, head: gambling_duty}
   - {variable: car_vehicle_excise_duty, kind: component, head: vehicle_excise_duty}
   # Council tax net of a benefit
   - {variable: council_tax_less_benefit, kind: composite, spans: [council_tax], note: "Council tax net of Council Tax Reduction (the OBR's basis). The totals count gross council tax and credit the reduction as spending, so adding this would count council tax twice."}
@@ -695,7 +728,6 @@ uncovered_receipts:
   - {obr_line: Bank surcharge}
   - {obr_line: Apprenticeship levy}
   - {obr_line: Digital services tax}
-  - {obr_line: Other HMRC taxes}
   - {obr_line: Environmental levies}
   - {obr_line: Emissions Trading Scheme}
   - {obr_line: Energy profits levy}

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/bingo/rate.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+description: The UK levies Bingo Duty at this rate on dutiable bingo promotion profits, until its abolition on 1 April 2026.
+values:
+  '2014-07-01': 0.1
+  '2026-04-01': 0
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: bingo duty rate
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true
+  reference:
+  - title: Betting and Gaming Duties Act 1981, section 17, as at 6 April 2024
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1981/63/section/17/2024-04-06
+  - title: Finance Act 2026, section 88
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/section/88
+  - title: HMRC historical gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-betting-and-gaming-statistics/historical-uk-betting-and-gaming-duty-rates

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/gaming/normal_six_month_bands.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+description: The UK applies these marginal Gaming Duty rates to gross gaming yield from registered casino premises in a normal six-month accounting period, with thresholds measured over that six-month period. This operator catalogue excludes unregistered gaming and alternative-period adjustments. Household calculations do not use it, so changing these bands leaves household casino duty unchanged; see household.consumption.gambling.casino_effective_rate.
+brackets:
+- threshold:
+    '2022-04-01': 0
+  rate:
+    '2022-04-01': 0.15
+- threshold:
+    '2022-04-01': 2_686_000
+  rate:
+    '2022-04-01': 0.2
+- threshold:
+    '2022-04-01': 4_538_000
+  rate:
+    '2022-04-01': 0.3
+- threshold:
+    '2022-04-01': 7_781_000
+  rate:
+    '2022-04-01': 0.4
+- threshold:
+    '2022-04-01': 14_626_000
+  rate:
+    '2022-04-01': 0.5
+metadata:
+  type: marginal_rate
+  unit: /1
+  threshold_unit: currency-GBP
+  label: normal six-month casino gaming duty bands
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 1997, section 11(2), as at 6 April 2024
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1997/16/section/11/2024-04-06
+  - title: HMRC Gaming Duty Notice 453
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/gaming-duty-excise-notice-453
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/general_betting/rates/exchange_commission.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies General Betting Duty at this rate on chargeable betting exchange commission.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.15
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: general betting duty exchange commission rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 141(2) to (4)
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/141
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates
+  - title: HMRC General Betting Duty guidance
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/general-betting-duty-pool-betting-duty-and-remote-gaming-duty
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/general_betting/rates/financial_spread.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies General Betting Duty at this rate on financial spread betting.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.03
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: general betting duty financial spread rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 129(2)
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/129
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates
+  - title: HMRC General Betting Duty guidance
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/general-betting-duty-pool-betting-duty-and-remote-gaming-duty
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/general_betting/rates/fixed_odds.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+description: The UK levies General Betting Duty at this rate on fixed-odds and wholly horse or dog racing pool betting.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.15
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: general betting duty fixed odds rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 127
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/127
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 135(2)
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/135
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates
+  - title: HMRC General Betting Duty guidance
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/general-betting-duty-pool-betting-duty-and-remote-gaming-duty
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/general_betting/rates/other_spread.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies General Betting Duty at this rate on other spread betting.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.1
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: general betting duty other spread rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 130(2)
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/130
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates
+  - title: HMRC General Betting Duty guidance
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/general-betting-duty-pool-betting-duty-and-remote-gaming-duty
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/general_betting/rates/remote.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+description: The UK levies General Betting Duty at this rate on qualifying remote fixed-odds bets other than bets wholly related to UK horse racing. The new remote rate excludes pool, spread and on-course bets and qualifying licensed-premises self-service betting terminals.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.15
+  '2027-04-01': 0.25
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: general betting duty qualifying remote rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 127
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/127
+  - title: Finance Act 2026, section 87
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/section/87
+  - title: HMRC gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rates-and-allowance-excise-duty-gambling-duty/excise-duty-gambling-duty-rates
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/lottery/rate.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies Lottery Duty at this rate on chargeable ticket consideration, including deemed ticket price. The initial entry marks this model's 2024/25 coverage, rather than legislative commencement.
+values:
+  '2024-04-06': 0.12
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: lottery duty rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 1993, section 25, as at 6 April 2024
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1993/34/section/25/2024-04-06
+  - title: Finance Act 1993, section 24, as at 6 April 2024
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1993/34/section/24/2024-04-06
+  - title: HMRC Lottery Duty Notice 458
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/lottery-duty-excise-notice-458
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/machine_games/rates/higher.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies Machine Games Duty at this rate on dutiable net takings from machines outside the lower- and standard-rate classes.
+values:
+  '2015-03-01': 0.25
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: machine games duty higher rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2012, Schedule 24, paragraph 9
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/14/schedule/24/paragraph/9
+  - title: HMRC Machine Games Duty Notice 452
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/machine-games-duty-excise-notice-452
+  - title: HMRC historical gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-betting-and-gaming-statistics/historical-uk-betting-and-gaming-duty-rates
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/machine_games/rates/lower.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies Machine Games Duty at this rate on dutiable net takings from machines on which every dutiable game costs at most 20p and has a maximum cash prize of at most GBP 10.
+values:
+  '2013-02-01': 0.05
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: machine games duty lower rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2012, Schedule 24, paragraph 9
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/14/schedule/24/paragraph/9
+  - title: HMRC Machine Games Duty Notice 452
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/machine-games-duty-excise-notice-452
+  - title: HMRC historical gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-betting-and-gaming-statistics/historical-uk-betting-and-gaming-duty-rates
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/machine_games/rates/standard.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+description: The UK levies Machine Games Duty at this rate on dutiable net takings from machines outside the lower-rate class on which every dutiable game costs at most GBP 5.
+values:
+  '2013-02-01': 0.2
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: machine games duty standard rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2012, Schedule 24, paragraph 9
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/14/schedule/24/paragraph/9
+  - title: HMRC Machine Games Duty Notice 452
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/machine-games-duty-excise-notice-452
+  - title: HMRC historical gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-betting-and-gaming-statistics/historical-uk-betting-and-gaming-duty-rates
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/pool_betting/rate.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,13 @@
+description: The UK levies Pool Betting Duty at this rate on chargeable pool betting profits, excluding pools wholly related to horse or dog racing and qualifying community-benefit bets.
+values:
+  '2014-12-01': 0.15
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: pool betting duty rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, sections 143 and 144
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/144
+  - title: HMRC General Betting Duty and Pool Betting Duty guidance
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/general-betting-duty-pool-betting-duty-and-remote-gaming-duty
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/remote_gaming/rate.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+description: The UK levies Remote Gaming Duty at this rate on chargeable non-exempt remote gaming profits.
+values:
+  '2019-04-01': 0.21
+  '2026-04-01': 0.4
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: remote gaming duty rate
+  reference:
+  - title: Finance Act 2014, section 155
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/26/section/155
+  - title: Finance Act 2026, section 86
+    href: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2026/11/section/86
+  - title: HMRC historical gambling duty rates
+    href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-betting-and-gaming-statistics/historical-uk-betting-and-gaming-duty-rates
+  preserve_calendar_dates: true

policyengine_uk/parameters/household/consumption/gambling/casino_effective_rate.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+description: The model attributes household casino Gaming Duty at this empirical fraction of supplied dutiable casino yield. It divides HMRC UK cash Gaming Duty receipts of GBP 165.397 million by provisional Gambling Commission GB casino game yield of GBP 702.36095883367 million for April 2024 to March 2025, rounded to six fractional decimals and held constant after model year 2024. Geography, receipt timing and model-year differences remain unresolved; review and refresh are tracked at https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/2587. Like the other household consumption assumptions, it takes one value per model year, the value in force on 1 January of the year in which the model year starts; unlike the statutory gambling duty rates, a change dated within a fiscal year is not split by day.
+values:
+  '2024-01-01': 0.235487
+metadata:
+  unit: /1
+  period: year
+  label: casino gaming duty household incidence fraction
+  reference:
+  - title: HMRC July 2026 Betting and Gaming tables, Table_1_BG_receipts E45, GBP 000
+    href: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ab54fd9fe72ed1e2b02f06b/2026_Jul_Bet_and_Gam_Tab.ods
+  - title: Gambling Commission April 2024 to March 2025 industry statistics, casino game yield, sheet 8a B94
+    href: https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/publication/industry-statistics-annual-report-financial-year-april-2024-to-march-2025
+  - title: Review and refresh the household casino-duty incidence proxy
+    href: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/2587

policyengine_uk/programs.yaml

@@ -125,6 +125,19 @@ programs:
     verified_end_year: 2026
     notes: One car per person with supplied vehicle characteristics. Excludes vans, motorcycles, eVED and population imputation.
 
+  - id: gambling_duty
+    name: Gambling duties
+    full_name: Betting and gaming duties
+    category: Taxes
+    agency: HMRC
+    status: partial
+    coverage: UK
+    variable: gambling_duty
+    parameter_prefix: gov.hmrc.gambling_duty
+    verified_start_year: 2024
+    verified_end_year: 2027
+    notes: Seven duty families on supplied attributed bases. Casino incidence uses a fixed FY2024/25 UK receipts/GB game yield proxy under household.consumption.gambling; review issue 2587. Excludes population imputation, verified machine-class-by-premises allocation and VAT-base repair.
+
   - id: student_loans
     name: Student loan repayments
     full_name: Student Loan Repayments

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/bingo_duty.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+- name: Case 1, attributed dutiable bingo profits use ten percent in FY2024.
+  period: 2024
+  input:
+    bingo_net_receipts: 1_000
+  output:
+    bingo_duty: 100 # BGDA 1981 section 17(1)(b).
+
+- name: Case 2, bingo abolition affects the final five days of FY2025.
+  period: 2025
+  input:
+    bingo_net_receipts: 36_500
+  output:
+    bingo_duty: 3_600 # FA 2026 section 88: 100 * 360 * .10.
+
+- name: Case 3, bingo duty is abolished throughout FY2026.
+  period: 2026
+  input:
+    bingo_net_receipts: 36_500
+  output:
+    bingo_duty: 0
+
+- name: Case 4, missing bingo input defaults to zero.
+  period: 2024
+  input: {}
+  output:
+    bingo_duty: 0
+
+- name: Case 5, a negative bingo base gives no duty.
+  period: 2024
+  input:
+    bingo_net_receipts: -1_000
+  output:
+    bingo_duty: 0