MaxGhenis · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026 · Oct 11, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/update-corporate-receipts-statistics.fixed.md b/changelog.d/update-corporate-receipts-statistics.fixed.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Update the corporate SDLT and business rates statistics behind `corporate_sdlt` and `business_rates` to the latest official outturn (HMRC stamp tax statistics to 2024-25; England, Scotland and Northern Ireland non-domestic rates to 2025-26; Wales to 2024-25) and project them with the OBR's March 2026 receipts forecasts instead of holding 2018-2021 values flat. Northern Ireland business rates no longer include domestic rates.
diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml
@@ -183,6 +183,13 @@ tax_heads:
     payer: consumer incidence
     totals: [gov_tax]
     sign: nonnegative
+    data_note: >-
+      Negative for 76 households on policyengine-uk-data 1.58.0
+      (enhanced_frs_2024_25) in every year from 2025 to 2030, -£72m weighted
+      in 2026: full_rate_vat_consumption is negative there because the
+      dataset's consumption (44 households) or full_rate_vat_expenditure_rate
+      (32 households, as low as -1.02) is negative. policyengine-uk-data
+      issue 565. Measured 2026-10-11.
   - id: vat_change
     label: Change in VAT from its baseline
     variable: vat_change
@@ -337,6 +344,15 @@ tax_heads:
     payer: corporate incidence
     totals: [gov_tax, household_tax, pre_budget_change_household_tax]
     sign: nonnegative
+    data_note: >-
+      Allocates each nation's published non-domestic rates outturn (England
+      and Wales local and central rating lists, Scotland, Northern Ireland),
+      projected with OBR receipts (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics). In
+      2026-27 the England, Scotland and Wales series total £37.26bn against
+      £37.41bn on the OBR's Business rates line (receipts Table 3.8).
+      Northern Ireland's £0.78bn (LPS non-domestic rates paid) compares with
+      £0.40bn on the OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line, which the
+      OBR records under other taxes (Table 3.2). Measured 2026-10-11.
   - id: sdlt_household
     label: Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases
     variable: expected_sdlt
@@ -347,6 +363,12 @@ tax_heads:
     payer: household
     totals: [gov_tax, household_tax, pre_budget_change_household_tax]
     sign: nonnegative
+    data_note: >-
+      policyengine-uk-data 1.58.0 calibrates stamp_duty_land_tax to the OBR's
+      total SDLT, which includes the companies' share that sdlt_corporate
+      allocates by shareholding (policyengine-uk-data issue 564). In 2026-27
+      the two heads total £23.29bn against the OBR's £18.15bn, measured
+      2026-10-11.
   - id: sdlt_corporate
     label: Stamp duty land tax paid by companies
     variable: corporate_sdlt

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml
@@ -646,6 +646,126 @@ obr:
           - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, expenditure, Table 4.1)
             href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
 
+  # Receipts used to project the statistics behind corporate incidence.
+  # Each is the OBR's growth in a receipts line: 2024 is outturn growth
+  # (2024-25 outturn in the March 2026 EFO over 2023-24 outturn in the March
+  # 2025 EFO), 2025-2030 the March 2026 EFO forecast, and 2031 onwards the
+  # average_earnings long-run path (the OBR forecasts receipts only to
+  # 2030-31). Values are ratios of the published levels, to six decimals.
+  # The 2024 value never enters a projection: indices start at 1.0 in a
+  # series' first year, so it only anchors the index at 2024, where the
+  # statistics with 2024-25 as their latest outturn are uprated from.
+  stamp_duty_land_tax:
+    residential:
+      description: Growth in stamp duty land tax receipts from residential property (England and Northern Ireland).
+      values:
+        # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.7 "SDLT from residential property"
+        2024-01-01: 0.211202
+        # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, receipts Table 3.7
+        2025-01-01: 0.1302
+        2026-01-01: 0.144691
+        2027-01-01: 0.115872
+        2028-01-01: 0.112713
+        2029-01-01: 0.0774
+        2030-01-01: 0.06083
+        # Beyond the OBR forecast: the average_earnings long-run path above
+        2031-01-01: 0.0332
+        2032-01-01: 0.0371
+        2033-01-01: 0.0374
+        2034-01-01: 0.0377
+        2035-01-01: 0.0380
+        2036-01-01: 0.0383
+      metadata:
+        unit: /1
+        label: Residential SDLT receipts growth
+        reference:
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.7)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.7; 2023-24 outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+    non_residential:
+      description: Growth in stamp duty land tax receipts from non-residential property (England and Northern Ireland).
+      values:
+        # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.7 "SDLT from non-residential property"
+        2024-01-01: 0.151067
+        # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, receipts Table 3.7
+        2025-01-01: 0.048515
+        2026-01-01: 0.284686
+        2027-01-01: 0.128684
+        2028-01-01: 0.107357
+        2029-01-01: 0.107128
+        2030-01-01: 0.087492
+        # Beyond the OBR forecast: the average_earnings long-run path above
+        2031-01-01: 0.0332
+        2032-01-01: 0.0371
+        2033-01-01: 0.0374
+        2034-01-01: 0.0377
+        2035-01-01: 0.0380
+        2036-01-01: 0.0383
+      metadata:
+        unit: /1
+        label: Non-residential SDLT receipts growth
+        reference:
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.7)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.7; 2023-24 outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+  business_rates:
+    great_britain:
+      description: Growth in business rates receipts in England, Scotland and Wales (the OBR "Business rates" line, cash basis).
+      values:
+        # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.8 (March 2025: Table 3.9) "Business rates"
+        2024-01-01: 0.093818
+        # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, receipts Table 3.8
+        2025-01-01: 0.051739
+        2026-01-01: 0.09872
+        2027-01-01: 0.022113
+        2028-01-01: 0.022775
+        2029-01-01: 0.084558
+        2030-01-01: 0.00104
+        # Beyond the OBR forecast: the average_earnings long-run path above
+        2031-01-01: 0.0332
+        2032-01-01: 0.0371
+        2033-01-01: 0.0374
+        2034-01-01: 0.0377
+        2035-01-01: 0.0380
+        2036-01-01: 0.0383
+      metadata:
+        unit: /1
+        label: Business rates receipts growth (Great Britain)
+        reference:
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.8)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.9; 2023-24 outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+    northern_ireland:
+      description: Growth in Northern Ireland business rates receipts (the OBR "Northern Ireland business rates" line in other taxes).
+      values:
+        # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.2 "Northern Ireland business rates"
+        2024-01-01: 0.032513
+        # Forecast (2025-2030) from OBR EFO March 2026, receipts Table 3.2
+        2025-01-01: 0.032388
+        2026-01-01: 0.020057
+        2027-01-01: 0.01942
+        2028-01-01: 0.018653
+        2029-01-01: 0.018644
+        2030-01-01: 0.02016
+        # Beyond the OBR forecast: the average_earnings long-run path above
+        2031-01-01: 0.0332
+        2032-01-01: 0.0371
+        2033-01-01: 0.0374
+        2034-01-01: 0.0377
+        2035-01-01: 0.0380
+        2036-01-01: 0.0383
+      metadata:
+        unit: /1
+        label: Northern Ireland business rates receipts growth
+        reference:
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2026 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.2)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/
+          - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.2; 2023-24 outturn)
+            href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/
+
   per_capita:
     gdp:
       description: Per capita nominal GDP year-on-year growth.

diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml
@@ -1,38 +1,149 @@
+description: Business rates (non-domestic rates) statistics.
 metadata:
   economy: false
   propagate_metadata_to_children: true
+# Non-domestic rates paid in each nation, on the headline outturn measure each
+# government publishes:
+# - England and Wales: the local rating lists, which councils bill and
+#   collect for the retention scheme or national pool (after reliefs), plus
+#   the central rating lists (mostly extensive holdings of industries that
+#   span several authorities), whose rates are paid to the Secretary of State
+#   or the Welsh Government instead.
+# - Scotland: the contributable amount councils pay into the national pool.
+# - Northern Ireland: non-domestic rates paid to Land & Property Services.
+# business_rates allocates all of it by shareholding, a modelling convention
+# that applies to every ratepayer on the lists, including, on the Welsh
+# central list in 2024-25, Network Rail (£10.5m) and Dwr Cymru (£17.0m) of
+# £104.7m.
+# Dates are the first calendar year of each fiscal year (2025-01-01 =
+# 2025-26). The latest year of each series is provisional where the source
+# says so. The England, Scotland and Wales series sum to £32.69bn in 2024-25,
+# against £32.38bn on the OBR's Business rates line (cash basis, March 2026
+# EFO, receipts Table 3.8), and to £31.06bn in 2023-24, against £29.60bn
+# (March 2025 EFO): England's local-list income is an accounting measure,
+# the OBR line cash.
+#
+# After its latest outturn year each series is projected by uprating with the
+# OBR's receipts forecast: England, Scotland and Wales with the OBR's
+# "Business rates" line, Northern Ireland with its "Northern Ireland business
+# rates" line (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.business_rates). The
+# economic-assumption indices run to 2039, so every series is flat in cash
+# terms from 2039-40.
 revenue:
+  description: Total revenue raised by business rates.
   ENGLAND:
+    description: Non-domestic rating income from the business rates retention scheme (local rating lists), England.
+    values:
+      2019-01-01: 25_332_567_663
+      2020-01-01: 13_115_709_138
+      2021-01-01: 20_447_905_400
+      2022-01-01: 22_923_982_400
+      2023-01-01: 25_079_394_900
+      2024-01-01: 26_397_345_600
+      2025-01-01: 27_591_022_700
     metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates income, England local lists
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.great_britain
       reference:
-      - href: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/national-non-domestic-rates-collected-by-councils#2021-to-2022
-        title: National non-domestic (non-residential) rates collected by councils
-          in England
+        - title: MHCLG, National non-domestic rates collected by councils in England 2025 to 2026, Table 1 "Non-domestic rating income from rates retention scheme" (2021-22 to 2025-26; 2025-26 provisional)
+          href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-non-domestic-rates-collected-by-councils-in-england-2025-to-2026
+        - title: MHCLG, NNDR3 2019 to 2020 local authority data, November 2025 update, Datasheet1 "nndrincome", England
+          href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-non-domestic-rates-collected-by-councils-in-england-2019-to-2020
+        - title: MHCLG, NNDR3 2020 to 2021 consolidated data, November 2025 update, "nndrincome", England
+          href: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-non-domestic-rates-collected-by-councils-in-england-2020-to-2021
+  ENGLAND_CENTRAL_LIST:
+    description: Rates received by the Secretary of State from ratepayers on the central non-domestic rating list, England.
     values:
-      2019-01-01: 24967000000
-      2020-01-01: 16403000000
-      2021-01-01: 27222000000
-  NORTHERN_IRELAND:
+      2019-01-01: 1_764_413_000
+      2020-01-01: 1_822_745_000
+      2021-01-01: 1_776_808_000
+      2022-01-01: 1_770_409_000
+      2023-01-01: 1_954_686_000
+      2024-01-01: 2_064_205_000
+      2025-01-01: 2_102_772_000
     metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates received, England central list
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.great_britain
       reference:
-      - href: https://minutes.belfastcity.gov.uk/documents/s81213/Terms%20of%20Reference.pdf
-        title: 2019 Review of Business Rates
-    values:
-      2018-01-01: 1334000000
+        - title: MHCLG, Main Non-Domestic Rating Account 2025-26, "Amounts received from rate payers on the Central non domestic rating list" (2025-26)
+          href: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/business-rate-retention-and-non-domestic-rates-2025-to-2026
+        - title: MHCLG, Main Non-Domestic Rating Accounts 2019-20 to 2024-25 (same line, each year's account)
+          href: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/business-rate-retention-and-non-domestic-rates-accounts
   SCOTLAND:
+    description: Non-domestic rates contributable amount, Scotland (audited outturn where published, otherwise provisional outturn).
+    values:
+      2019-01-01: 2_752_830_731
+      2020-01-01: 1_816_120_309
+      2021-01-01: 2_108_180_163
+      2022-01-01: 2_791_962_750
+      2023-01-01: 3_033_471_284
+      2024-01-01: 3_146_317_233
+      2025-01-01: 3_079_138_735
     metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates contributable amount, Scotland
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.great_britain
       reference:
-      - href: https://www.gov.scot/publications/non-domestic-rates-income-statistics/
-        title: Non-domestic (non-residential) rates income statistics
-    values:
-      2020-01-01: 1912000000
-      2021-01-01: 2123000000
+        - title: Scottish Government, Non-domestic rates income statistics (August 2026 update), Table 1 "Contributable amount" (audited outturn 2019-20 to 2021-22; provisional outturn 2022-23 to 2025-26)
+          href: https://www.gov.scot/publications/non-domestic-rates-income-statistics/
   WALES:
+    description: >-
+      Non-domestic rates contribution to the pool (local rating lists), Wales.
+      In 2020-21 and 2021-22 it was 1.41 and 1.38 times the councils'
+      estimated in-year net collectable debit, against 0.96 to 1.02 in
+      2018-19, 2019-20 and 2022-23 to 2024-25, so those two years appear to
+      include retail, leisure and hospitality relief that ratepayers did not
+      pay.
+    values:
+      2019-01-01: 990_231_844
+      2020-01-01: 952_827_214
+      2021-01-01: 991_820_618
+      2022-01-01: 986_435_966
+      2023-01-01: 893_667_788
+      2024-01-01: 980_085_115
     metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates contribution to the pool, Wales local lists
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.great_britain
       reference:
-      - href: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Local-Government/Finance/Non-Domestic-Rates/Estimates/nondomesticratesestimates-by-authority
-        title: "Non-domestic (non-residential) rates estimates by authority (\xA3\
-          \ thousand) | StatsWales"
+        - title: StatsWales, Non-domestic rates actuals by local authority, "Contribution to the pool", Total Unitary Authorities (2019-20 to 2024-25)
+          href: https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/a587b659-d5c7-4a53-a40d-382dbb851fdf/start
+        - title: StatsWales, Collection of non-domestic rates by billing authority, "Estimated in-year NDR net collectable debit"
+          href: https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/5eeb55b8-ba2b-44c6-8dca-282923028e1e/start
+  WALES_CENTRAL_LIST:
+    description: Rates received by the Welsh Government from ratepayers on the central non-domestic rating list, Wales.
     values:
-      2020-01-01: 1053499000
-  description: Total revenue raised by Business Rates
+      2019-01-01: 100_671_014
+      2020-01-01: 102_668_488
+      2021-01-01: 100_212_013
+      2022-01-01: 101_438_110
+      2023-01-01: 96_926_991
+      2024-01-01: 104_685_854
+    metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates received, Wales central list
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.great_britain
+      reference:
+        - title: StatsWales, Non-domestic rates central list, "Total Rates Received", Wales (2019-20 to 2024-25)
+          href: https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/ddada8b1-60ac-4a9a-8a8e-4e04df23d2f8/start
+  NORTHERN_IRELAND:
+    description: >-
+      Non-domestic rates paid against ratepayer accounts in the rating year,
+      Northern Ireland. The series starts in 2020-21 (a rates-holiday year),
+      and earlier years take that value.
+    values:
+      2020-01-01: 380_876_615
+      2021-01-01: 446_688_825
+      2022-01-01: 609_651_544
+      2023-01-01: 702_804_905
+      2024-01-01: 741_337_437
+      2025-01-01: 766_153_718
+    metadata:
+      unit: currency-GBP
+      label: Business rates paid, Northern Ireland
+      uprating: gov.economic_assumptions.indices.obr.business_rates.northern_ireland
+      reference:
+        - title: Land & Property Services (OpenDataNI), Rates paid by District Council and Sector, "Non-Domestic Rates collected by District Council" (2020-21 to 2025-26)
+          href: https://www.opendatani.gov.uk/dataset/rates-paid-by-district-council-and-sector
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		Update the corporate SDLT and business rates statistics behind `corporate_sdlt` and `business_rates` to the latest official outturn (HMRC stamp tax statistics to 2024-25; England, Scotland and Northern Ireland non-domestic rates to 2025-26; Wales to 2024-25) and project them with the OBR's March 2026 receipts forecasts instead of holding 2018-2021 values flat. Northern Ireland business rates no longer include domestic rates.