The national living wage parameter ends at April 2026, so every rule that reads it freezes #2537

gov.hmrc.minimum_wage.non_apprentice has values up to 1 April 2026 (£12.71 for ages 21 and over, NMW (Amendment) Regulations 2026) and no projection. Every later year reads £12.71, while the model's earnings grow with OBR's forecast. Three rules read it:

• The UC benefit cap earnings exception. uc_benefit_cap_earnings_exception_threshold (Fix the annual allowance on survey data, the UC benefit cap earnings threshold, relevant UK earnings and Scottish water uprating #2536) is 16 hours a week at the national living wage, times 52 and divided by 12 (UC Regs 2013 reg. 82(1)(a)). It holds at £10,572 a year from 2026-27, so the share of capped families who meet the exception creeps up each year.
• The UC minimum income floor. uc_minimum_income_floor_gross is expected hours at the minimum wage for the person's age (reg. 90). The floor holds still too, so the gap between it and projected earnings widens.
• The childcare minimum-earnings tests. minimum_wage feeds tax_free_childcare_meets_income_requirements and extended_childcare_entitlement_meets_income_requirements, which test expected earnings of 16 hours a week at the minimum wage.

Proposal

• Add the April 2027 rates when they are set. The Low Pay Commission recommends them in the autumn, and the Government confirms them in an amending S.I.
• From then on, project the rates by gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.average_earnings. The national living wage's target is two-thirds of median hourly earnings for workers aged 21 and over, so it moves with earnings. Record that this is a projection and not law.
• Add tests that the three rules move with the projection.

Found in review of #2536 (item 2 of @vahid-ahmadi's review).

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