From 2030-31 every UC LCWRA claimant gets the new-claimant amount; the protected amount stops with the 2026-29 modifier #2282

What's wrong

From 2030-31 every Universal Credit LCWRA claimant gets the new-claimant amount (elements.disabled.amount), including pre-2026, severe conditions criteria and terminally ill claimants, who are paid the protected amount in law.

universal_credit_july_2025_reform (scenarios/uc_reform.py) sets the health element only for 2026 to 2029 (for year in range(2026, 2030)). After that, uc_LCWRA_element's formula pays elements.disabled.amount to everyone.

Reproducer (main 9475c95a)

A single claimant aged 30 with uc_limited_capability_for_WRA: true, in a situation (no claim-status input, so the protected amount applies):

With #2284 (UC Act 2025 s. 3 freeze) the 2030-31 figure becomes £221.60, still the new-claimant amount.

#2248 noted this ("After 2029-30, the modifier stops and every claimant falls to elements.disabled.amount") and left it out of scope.

The law

• The UC Regs 2013 reg. 36 row for pre-2026, severe conditions criteria and terminally ill claimants has no end date. UC Act 2025 s. 2(1)(b) only relabels it.
• s. 3(1) disapplies SSAA 1992 s. 150(1) and (2) for the LCWRA element (both rows, reg. 27) only in the tax years ending 5 April 2026 to 5 April 2029. The review in 2029-30 governs the April 2030 rates again (s. 150(10)).
• s. 4 requires increases to the protected amount only for 2026-27 to 2029-30.

Expected

• From 2030-31 a protected claimant keeps the protected amount, uprated from its 2029-30 level under s. 150. That uprating is discretionary for UC amounts (s. 150(2)(b)); the model's convention is the benefit uprating index.
• A new claimant keeps elements.disabled.amount.
• The new-claimant share of claimants also needs a value for 2030 on (post_2025_claimant_share stops at 2029).

gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.disabled.uprating (added by that fix) is the benefit index held through the s. 3 years. Uprating the 2029-30 protected amount by it from 2030-31 gives the s. 150 path.

Impact

This affects every 2030-31+ projection: UC spending, poverty and household incomes for LCWRA claimants.

From the main run behind #2284's impact table (enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@1.58.0, main 9475c95a, a full microsimulation): uc_LCWRA_element, summed over every benefit unit with LCWRA, is £32.3bn in 2029-30 and £20.1bn in 2030-31, and universal_credit falls from £87.6bn to £84.5bn. That run does not isolate this bug, since other things change between the two years too; the size of the fix needs its own run.