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expected_sdlt adds the property sale rate; expected_lbtt and expected_ltt discount purchases twice #2246
expected_sdlt returns stamp_duty_land_tax + property_sale_rate + corporate_sdlt. The sale rate (0.045) is added as pounds, so every household gets £0.045 of phantom SDLT.
expected_lbtt = property_sale_rate × land_and_buildings_transaction_tax and expected_ltt = property_sale_rate × land_transaction_taxmultiply. But LBTT and LTT are already charged only on the dataset's purchase draw (main_residential_property_purchased = main_residence_value × property_purchased, a 3.85% seeded draw in policyengine-uk-data). The 4.5% sale rate therefore discounts them a second time.
Decide one convention: either the purchase draw is the expectation, so drop property_sale_rate from all three, or the taxes are on full stocks times a sale rate. Do not combine both. property_sale_rate.yaml itself is a 2021 placeholder ("TODO add proper calculations"). Add a property test that expected and realised transaction taxes agree in total under the chosen convention.
The expected_sdlt part (adding property_sale_rate as pounds) is fixed in #2235, which also stops corporate SDLT being counted twice. What remains here is the LBTT/LTT double discount: expected_lbtt and expected_ltt still multiply transaction taxes that already sit on the purchase draw by the 4.5% sale rate. #2235's convention (the purchase draw is the expectation, no further scaling) is the natural one to extend to them.
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MaxGhenis commentedon Oct 10, 2026
The
expected_sdltpart (addingproperty_sale_rateas pounds) is fixed in #2235, which also stops corporate SDLT being counted twice. What remains here is the LBTT/LTT double discount:expected_lbttandexpected_lttstill multiply transaction taxes that already sit on the purchase draw by the 4.5% sale rate. #2235's convention (the purchase draw is the expectation, no further scaling) is the natural one to extend to them.