Correct protected pension-age Housing Benefit allowances and retain fixed earnings disregards #2195

Summary

The selected pension-age Housing Benefit couple allowance is incorrect in release 2.106.1: the protected-cohort 2025 weekly rate should be £366.00, not £357.98, and CPI-only projection of the full allowance from 2027 does not preserve its Pension Credit components. The corresponding single/lone-parent rate should be £244.40, not £239.20. The enacted 2026 bases are correct. The same program-folder research confirms four erroneous earnings-disregard projections already corrected by merged PR #1908. Complete the allowance correction in existing draft PR #2092, retaining its component-weighted forecasts and adding dated government citations and focused regressions. This is not a claim that the entire Housing Benefit program is correct. The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit)

Audited model surface

• Audited release: policyengine-uk 2.106.1
• Audit unit: parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.couple.aged
• Last model modification: 2026-05-23
• Explicitly reviewed units:
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.couple.aged — last model modification: 2026-05-23
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.lone_parent.aged — last model modification: 2026-05-23
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.single.aged — last model modification: 2026-05-23
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple — last model modification: 2026-01-17
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent — last model modification: 2026-01-17
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single — last model modification: 2026-01-17
  • parameter:gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker — last model modification: 2026-01-17
• Audit date: 2026-10-08
• Periods reviewed: 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 first projected year (forecast basis, not enacted rate)
• Jurisdictions: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland

Findings and implementation parts

1. For protected pre-April-2021 pension-age claimants, the release encodes 2025-26 allowances of £239.20 for single/lone-parent claimants and £357.98 for couples instead of the enacted £244.40 and £366.00. The 2026-27 amounts of £256.00 and £383.35 match the Order. These amounts are not the lower rates for later pension-age cohorts.

Sources: The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))

• In existing draft PR Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092, correct the three 2025 allowance values to the enacted protected-cohort rates, embed dated Great Britain and Northern Ireland citations and add externally sourced regressions for all three parameters and a tapered Housing Benefit calculation. Coordinate with Set DWP benefit rates to the announced amounts, not CPI projections #1925, which contains the same value corrections; do not open a duplicate correction PR. The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b))
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/couple/aged.yaml → values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/lone_parent/aged.yaml → values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/single/aged.yaml → values.2025-04-01.metadata.reference using The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order (Northern Ireland) 2025, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b) and 1(2)(b)).

2. The release projects all three protected pension-age Housing Benefit allowances from April 2027 using CPI alone. That does not preserve their relationship to the earnings-reviewed Pension Credit guarantee and retained Savings Credit uplift. A component-weighted projection is a forecast convention, not an enacted 2027 rate.

Sources: Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))

• Reuse Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092's existing relationship-specific forecast indices: project the guarantee component with the shared non-negative earnings series and the retained uplift with non-negative September CPI. Preserve standard parameter uprating so explicit/reformed allowance values remain authoritative. Retain the source metadata and component/first-projected-year regression tests; do not duplicate the implementation. Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/couple/aged.yaml → metadata.uprating using Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c)).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/lone_parent/aged.yaml → metadata.uprating using Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c)).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/allowances/single/aged.yaml → metadata.uprating using Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c)).

3. The release CPI-uprates four Housing Benefit earnings disregards, and retains a £37.10 additional disregard long after the temporary uplift ended. The published 2025-26 and 2026-27 weekly amounts are £5 single, £10 couple, £25 lone parent and £17.10 additional disregard. Main already contains the correction merged through #1908.

Sources: Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)

• Retain merged PR Take Housing Benefit earnings disregards from net earnings only #1908's fixed cash amounts, dated worker-disregard history, removal of CPI uprating and statutory source references. This part is already implemented on main; no new code or duplicate PR is required. Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/means_test/income_disregard/couple.yaml → metadata.uprating using Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/means_test/income_disregard/lone_parent.yaml → metadata.uprating using Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/means_test/income_disregard/single.yaml → metadata.uprating using Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20).
  • Add or update reference at policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/means_test/income_disregard/worker.yaml → metadata.uprating using Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20).

Projection behavior

• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.couple.aged uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2026-04-01 (first projected date 2027-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI-only projection from the last enacted 2026 rate is replaced in Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092 by a guarantee/retained-uplift forecast; the first projected rate is not enacted law. Sources: Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.lone_parent.aged uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2026-04-01 (first projected date 2027-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI-only projection from the last enacted 2026 rate is replaced in Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092 by a guarantee/retained-uplift forecast; the first projected rate is not enacted law. Sources: Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.allowances.single.aged uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2026-04-01 (first projected date 2027-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI-only projection from the last enacted 2026 rate is replaced in Correct Pension Credit and pension-age Housing Benefit projections #2092 by a guarantee/retained-uplift forecast; the first projected rate is not enacted law. Sources: Social Security Administration Act 1992, section 150A (Section 150A(1)(d), (2), (3), (4) and (8)); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20); The Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order 2026, Schedule 6 (Schedule 6, table paragraphs 1(1)(b), 1(2)(b), 1(1)(c) and 1(2)(c))
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.couple uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2015-04-01 (first projected date 2016-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI projection is not appropriate for these fixed published cash disregards. Main has already removed it through merged PR Take Housing Benefit earnings disregards from net earnings only #1908. Sources: Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.lone_parent uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2015-04-01 (first projected date 2016-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI projection is not appropriate for these fixed published cash disregards. Main has already removed it through merged PR Take Housing Benefit earnings disregards from net earnings only #1908. Sources: Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.single uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2015-04-01 (first projected date 2016-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI projection is not appropriate for these fixed published cash disregards. Main has already removed it through merged PR Take Housing Benefit earnings disregards from net earnings only #1908. Sources: Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)
• gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.income_disregard.worker uses gov.benefit_uprating_cpi after 2015-04-01 (first projected date 2016-04-01): incorrect_in_release. CPI projection is not appropriate for these fixed published cash disregards. Main has already removed it through merged PR Take Housing Benefit earnings disregards from net earnings only #1908. Sources: Benefit and pension rates 2025 to 2026 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit; Deductions, non-dependant bands); Benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 (Housing Benefit personal allowances; Disregards, Housing Benefit); A14/2025 Housing Benefit uprating for the financial year ending March 2027 (Paragraphs 4 to 7, 16, 17 and 20)

Uncertainties and exclusions

The full gov/dwp/housing_benefit folder (30 parameters) and its 18 connected release variables were inspected, but only the seven named parameters have completed this bounded 2025-27 assessment. The other 23 parameter assessments remain unfinished and receive no new last_checked_at. Six working-age allowance rate mismatches and missing non-dependant rates are cited follow-ups linked to existing #1925/#2007 work. The capital thresholds match the current rate tables, but asset attribution, exemptions, historical dates and routing have not been fully revalidated; #1969/#1974/#2131 contain related work. worker_hours needs the complete additional-disregard eligibility review. takeup is a modeling assumption, not a legislated entitlement. #1913 retains the post-April-2021 cohort split; #1910/#2119 retain working-age closure/migration; this review does not certify those paths. Historical allowance values before 2025 and exact intra-April timing remain outside the completed period assessment, with #1925 documenting the historical gaps. Vahid's separate #2092 comment about rebuilding forecast indices when a later enacted year is added is a prospective implementation follow-up, not a claim that 2027 rates are currently enacted.