Targeted childcare qualifies working-age families through a computed Guarantee Credit #1956

Found while measuring #1952 on the Enhanced FRS.

Targeted (2-year-old) childcare qualifies on the raw guarantee_credit variable (gov.dfe.targeted_childcare_entitlement.qualifying_benefits). That variable is max(0, minimum guarantee − Pension Credit income) × is_guarantee_credit_eligible. It is computed for every benefit unit, so it is positive for low-income working-age families.

Law (legislation.gov.uk, 2026-09-30):

• The Local Authority (Duty to Secure Early Years Provision Free of Charge) Regulations 2014 (SI 2014/2147) reg 1, "eligible child": a young child "whose parent is entitled to any one or more of the following— ... the guaranteed element of state pension credit under the State Pension Credit Act 2002; ...".
• Entitlement to State Pension Credit requires that the claimant "has attained the qualifying age" (SPCA 2002 s.1(2)(b)), as well as a claim.

Evidence. #1952 counts Carer's Allowance in Pension Credit income, which lowers working-age carers' computed Guarantee Credit. Targeted childcare then fell by £1.59m (2025), £1.73m (2028), £1.77m (2029) and £1.82m (2030) in real Enhanced FRS runs. Those families could never have qualified through Pension Credit.

Fix. Key the entry on entitlement: is_pension_credit_eligible plus the claim, or the in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit variable from #1927 / #1909 when either merges. Also check how the IS, income-based JSA and income-related ESA entries are modelled.

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