Problem
Two related problems with income-related ESA:
-
The abolition is not modelled. SI 2026/409 (made 15 April 2026) inserted art 3A into SI 2025/1148, so the ESA "amending provisions" come into force on 1 July 2026 for the remaining old-style ESA awards. That ends income-related ESA.
- Art 3A(2) saves awards where a person is appointed under reg 57 of the Claims and Payments Regulations 2013, or where an appointee was judged likely to be needed within the previous 6 months.
- Northern Ireland has the same structure from 1 October 2026 (SR 2025/176 art 3A, inserted by SR 2026/115).
esa_income passes reported awards through a capital screen with no end date.
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ESA(IR) and UC overlap. esa_income is not gated on the UC claim and is not UC unearned income. On the Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.56.16, main at 1c5b4d0, 2027), the model pays £2.23bn of ESA(IR) to 188.8k benefit units. £1.64bn of it goes to 137.8k units that also receive UC. A UC claim ends an old-style ESA award.
Proposal
Problem
Two related problems with income-related ESA:
The abolition is not modelled. SI 2026/409 (made 15 April 2026) inserted art 3A into SI 2025/1148, so the ESA "amending provisions" come into force on 1 July 2026 for the remaining old-style ESA awards. That ends income-related ESA.
esa_incomepasses reported awards through a capital screen with no end date.ESA(IR) and UC overlap.
esa_incomeis not gated on the UC claim and is not UC unearned income. On the Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.56.16,mainat 1c5b4d0, 2027), the model pays £2.23bn of ESA(IR) to 188.8k benefit units. £1.64bn of it goes to 137.8k units that also receive UC. A UC claim ends an old-style ESA award.Proposal
fiscal_year_blend: true. A bool is sampled at 30 April and would leave 2026-27 unaffected.esa_incomefor benefit units that claim UC.jsa_contrib.