Problem
PolicyEngine UK pays former legacy-benefit claimants plain Universal Credit. It has no transitional element under the UC (Transitional Provisions) Regulations 2014 Part 4, which tops up UC for managed migrants whose UC is below their legacy total at migration.
Protection went only to households that received a migration notice and made a qualifying claim by the deadline (regs 44, 48 and 50). DWP's Move to UC statistics (Stat-Xplore "Households invited to Move to Universal Credit", tables MtUC Households 3 and 6, retrieved 2026-09-30) show how common that was:
- 51.6% of the 1.58m households that claimed after a migration notice were awarded protection;
- 63.4% of claimants in the HB plus income-related ESA cohort;
- 58.1% of claimants in the tax-credits-only cohort;
- 22.3% of claimants in the HB-only cohort.
The HB abolition by SI 2025/1148 art 7 (#1910) does not itself carry protection, because art 7 neither issues nor deems a migration notice. Protection matters only for households moved by notice.
Without the element, the model understates UC for managed migrants whose UC is below their former legacy entitlement. The gap is largest in the first years after migration.
Proposal
Scope a transitional-element model on the regulations' own terms (read on legislation.gov.uk before encoding):
- the element is the total legacy amount minus the indicative UC amount at migration (regs 52-55). The legacy total includes Housing Benefit (reg 53(7)) but not specified or temporary accommodation Housing Benefit (reg 53(10));
- it is eroded by any "relevant increase" in UC (reg 55), which includes uprating;
- it ends on the events in regs 56-57, including a sustained drop in earnings, a change in couple status, and most new awards.
Pair it with the policyengine-uk-data take-up work that moves legacy reporters onto UC at the observed claim rates (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#492). Measure the effect before and after on the Enhanced FRS.
Problem
PolicyEngine UK pays former legacy-benefit claimants plain Universal Credit. It has no transitional element under the UC (Transitional Provisions) Regulations 2014 Part 4, which tops up UC for managed migrants whose UC is below their legacy total at migration.
Protection went only to households that received a migration notice and made a qualifying claim by the deadline (regs 44, 48 and 50). DWP's Move to UC statistics (Stat-Xplore "Households invited to Move to Universal Credit", tables MtUC Households 3 and 6, retrieved 2026-09-30) show how common that was:
The HB abolition by SI 2025/1148 art 7 (#1910) does not itself carry protection, because art 7 neither issues nor deems a migration notice. Protection matters only for households moved by notice.
Without the element, the model understates UC for managed migrants whose UC is below their former legacy entitlement. The gap is largest in the first years after migration.
Proposal
Scope a transitional-element model on the regulations' own terms (read on legislation.gov.uk before encoding):
Pair it with the policyengine-uk-data take-up work that moves legacy reporters onto UC at the observed claim rates (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#492). Measure the effect before and after on the Enhanced FRS.