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Remove x and y from the constituency and local authority lists - #639

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Fixes #638

Draft: merge after the UK Budget on 28 October 2026.

axiom: n/a: data (area list columns only; no policy change)

Why

storage/constituencies_2024.csv and storage/local_authorities_2021.csv carried each area's position on a hex map in x and y columns. Nothing in this package reads those columns, and the PolicyEngine app has its own hex-map layout files and does not read these lists. Removing the columns stops the lists carrying positions that nothing uses.

What changes

  • storage/constituencies_2024.csv: code,name,x,y,region,country becomes code,name,region,country (650 rows).
  • storage/local_authorities_2021.csv: code,x,y,name becomes code,name (360 rows).
  • New test tests/test_area_lists.py: each file has exactly the expected columns, and every row has as many fields as the header.
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/area-lists-without-xy.removed.md. Merging it starts a data release, as for any fragment; the built datasets do not depend on these columns.

Every other byte is unchanged. Checked against the original files:

  • Each original line equals its new line with exactly ,<x>,<y> put back after the field before x, at the position where the fields before it end.
  • The size difference equals the removed text (4,520 bytes for constituencies, 3,200 for local authorities).
  • Parsed with csv and with pandas (all values as strings), the new files equal the originals with x and y dropped.
  • Quoting is unchanged: the 14 constituency names and 6 local authority names that contain commas are still quoted, and no other field is.
  • The files still use LF line endings, have no byte order mark and end with a newline.

Who reads these files

In this repository, every reader uses code, name and, for constituencies, country: the constituency and local authority calibration and loss matrices (datasets/local_areas, calibration/matrix_builder.py), the long-format geography weights, the local H5 publisher, the target database load (db/etl.py), local Universal Credit matching (utils/uc_data.py), the validation notebooks and the tests. A search of the tests, docs, notebooks, tools, workflows and build scripts found no use of x or y.

Outside this repository (checked in local checkouts of the other PolicyEngine repositories):

  • microcosm reads both files from the installed package's storage folder and uses code and name.
  • .py ships its own copy of each area list and takes names and hex positions from those. It downloads files with these names from the policyengine-uk-data-private storage bucket only to find an area's row in a weight matrix, by code. This repository's release uploads datasets and weights, not these two CSVs, so the bucket copies do not change.
  • the Public API reads its own copies of both lists and uses name.

Older versions of .py and the Public API read x and y from copies of these files on Hugging Face (policyengine/policyengine-uk-data and policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-public) and in the policyengine-uk-data-private storage bucket. This repository's release does not write those copies, so this change leaves them as they are.

Tests

Red-green, in one commit: the new test was written first and failed on both files while x and y were present, then the columns were removed and it passed.

FAILED test_area_lists.py::test_area_list_has_exactly_the_expected_columns[constituencies_2024.csv-expected_columns0]
  AssertionError: assert ['code', 'nam...n', 'country'] == ['code', 'nam...n', 'country']
    At index 2 diff: 'x' != 'region'
FAILED test_area_lists.py::test_area_list_has_exactly_the_expected_columns[local_authorities_2021.csv-expected_columns1]
  AssertionError: assert ['code', 'x', 'y', 'name'] == ['code', 'name']
  • uv run pytest policyengine_uk_data/tests/test_area_lists.py: 2 passed.
  • The tests that read the real files (test_la_council_tax_targets.py, test_la_loss_council_tax.py, test_local_uc_etl.py, test_local_uc_alignment.py, test_oa_region_assignment.py::TestRealCrosswalk): 58 passed, 14 skipped (they need the enhanced FRS dataset, which CI builds).
  • ruff format --check . and the changelog fragment check pass.
  • CI's full build and test run.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The two area lists carried each area's hex-map position in x and y
columns. Nothing in the package reads them: every reader uses code,
name and, for constituencies, country. Every other column, row and
quoted name is unchanged.

The new test checks each file's exact columns and that every row has
as many fields as the header. It failed on both files before the
columns were removed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

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Calibration fit against the base build: pass

Targets within 10% (those both builds have) Base Head Change
National (647) 64.8% 64.8% +0.0pp
Local (11,228) 75.2% 74.9% -0.3pp

A drop of more than 2.0% fails.

Notes

  • 7 national targets are in a better band on the head.

National targets in a worse error band on the head (8)

Target Base Head
dwp/uc/claimants_with_5+_children within 10% 25-50%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_4_800_to_6_000 within 10% 10-25%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_2_400_to_3_600 10-25% 25-50%
hmrc/dividend_income_count_income_band_50_000_to_70_000 10-25% 25-50%
hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_200_000_to_300_000 25-50% 50-100%
hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000 within 10% 10-25%
hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_300_000_to_500_000 10-25% 25-50%
ons/north_east_age_10_19 within 10% 10-25%

Flags are for review: builds of the same code move 2 to 12 national targets to a worse band (#598). Bands are of |estimate / target - 1|; no target's estimate or error is published.

Workflow run

Income distribution and single ages against the base build: pass

HBAI FYE 2025 (DWP), period 2024: equivalised income in £ a week, rates and Gini in per cent. A value outside HBAI's 95% interval is marked (outside).

Measure Base Head HBAI 95% interval
median_bhc 678.42 (outside) 678.78 (outside) 719.48 703.57 to 735.58
median_ahc 584.44 (outside) 584.61 (outside) 623.14 605.21 to 637.07
mean_bhc 800.09 (outside) 802.23 (outside) 854.98 836.37 to 870.35
mean_ahc 691.49 (outside) 693.49 (outside) 749.82 732.33 to 764.50
gini_bhc 33.13 33.20 32.74 31.89 to 33.98
gini_ahc 38.43 (outside) 38.46 (outside) 36.78 35.90 to 38.29
relative_low_income_bhc_all 18.20 (outside) 17.94 (outside) 15.91 14.45 to 17.64
relative_low_income_bhc_children 23.88 23.20 20.52 17.36 to 23.96
relative_low_income_bhc_working_age 17.47 (outside) 17.23 (outside) 14.28 12.91 to 16.02
relative_low_income_bhc_pensioners 13.77 14.01 15.90 13.69 to 17.99
relative_low_income_ahc_all 23.47 (outside) 23.15 (outside) 19.64 17.99 to 21.27
relative_low_income_ahc_children 33.53 (outside) 32.59 (outside) 27.41 23.49 to 30.64
relative_low_income_ahc_working_age 23.16 (outside) 22.88 (outside) 18.58 17.01 to 20.34
relative_low_income_ahc_pensioners 12.07 12.37 13.87 11.62 to 15.90
Single ages against the ONS projection Base Head
Mean error, ages 0 to 79 11.0% 11.0%
Largest error, ages 0 to 79 44.0% 44.2%
Largest error, ages 15 to 19 36.8% 37.7%

Flags

None.

These measures report and flag but do not fail yet: their same-code spread is unmeasured (#598).

Aggregate impact of the data change: pass

Base dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (the base's build, sha256 218fa40a8b04) against head dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (this pull request's build, sha256 e70364e58472), both measured with policyengine-uk 2.122.2, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 4 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 138 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.dfe_education_spending, spending.disabled_students_allowance, spending.sda), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Extended childcare entitlement 2030-31 836k 805k -31.9k
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 1,404k 1,366k -38.3k
Disability Living Allowance 2028-29 1,386k 1,348k -37.8k
Disability Living Allowance 2027-28 1,380k 1,343k -37.7k
Disability Living Allowance 2029-30 1,392k 1,354k -38.0k
Disability Living Allowance 2030-31 1,398k 1,360k -38.2k
Disability Living Allowance 2025-26 1,370k 1,333k -37.4k
Disability Living Allowance 2026-27 1,375k 1,338k -37.5k
Personal Independence Payment 2031-32 £35.45bn £35.86bn +£401.1m
Personal Independence Payment 2030-31 £34.61bn £35.00bn +£391.6m
Personal Independence Payment 2029-30 £33.78bn £34.16bn +£382.2m
Personal Independence Payment 2028-29 £32.97bn £33.35bn +£373.1m
Personal Independence Payment 2027-28 £32.20bn £32.56bn +£364.3m
Personal Independence Payment 2026-27 £31.36bn £31.71bn +£354.8m
Personal Independence Payment 2025-26 £30.09bn £30.43bn +£340.5m
Income tax 2025-26 £297.25bn £298.26bn +£1.01bn
Income tax 2026-27 £316.69bn £317.74bn +£1.05bn
Income tax 2027-28 £332.62bn £333.69bn +£1.07bn
Income tax 2028-29 £346.98bn £348.09bn +£1.10bn
Income tax 2029-30 £362.92bn £364.04bn +£1.12bn
Income tax 2030-31 £380.28bn £381.42bn +£1.14bn
Income tax 2031-32 £400.12bn £401.29bn +£1.17bn
Carer's Allowance 2031-32 926k 940k +14.3k
Carer's Allowance 2030-31 922k 936k +14.2k
Carer's Allowance 2029-30 918k 932k +14.2k
Carer's Allowance 2028-29 914k 928k +14.1k
Carer's Allowance 2027-28 910k 924k +14.0k
Carer's Allowance 2026-27 907k 921k +14.0k
Carer's Allowance 2025-26 903k 917k +13.9k
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the 2031-32 £25.92bn £25.66bn -£262.0m
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 £9.82bn £9.57bn -£252.4m
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the 2030-31 £24.72bn £24.47bn -£250.7m
Disability Living Allowance 2030-31 £9.59bn £9.34bn -£246.4m
Disability Living Allowance 2029-30 £9.36bn £9.12bn -£240.5m
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the 2029-30 £23.60bn £23.36bn -£239.5m
Extended childcare entitlement 2026-27 795k 783k -11.9k
Disability Living Allowance 2028-29 £9.13bn £8.90bn -£234.7m
Extended childcare entitlement 2031-32 835k 823k -11.7k
Personal Independence Payment 2030-31 4,170k 4,219k +48.6k
Personal Independence Payment 2031-32 4,188k 4,237k +48.8k

98 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax +£1.01bn +£1.05bn +£1.07bn +£1.10bn +£1.12bn +£1.14bn +£1.17bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) +£74.8m +£75.7m +£78.9m +£80.0m +£84.5m +£85.4m +£87.9m
National Insurance (employer) +£300.9m +£312.4m +£321.1m +£329.2m +£338.9m +£348.6m +£362.0m
Capital gains tax -£12.5m -£12.7m -£12.9m -£13.4m -£13.8m -£14.2m -£14.7m
Student loan repayments +£11.5m +£11.9m +£12.2m +£12.6m +£12.9m +£13.3m +£19.9m
VAT -£469.2m -£481.8m -£493.2m -£505.1m -£517.5m -£530.2m -£543.1m
Fuel duties +£98 +£331 -£288 -£1,072 +£76 +£383 +£573
TV licence fee -£4.9m -£6.2m -£5.5m -£5.4m -£5.5m -£5.7m -£5.2m
Council tax +£4.9m +£5.1m +£5.3m +£5.6m +£5.7m +£5.8m +£5.8m
High value council tax surcharge 0 0 0 -£3.4m -£3.5m -£3.6m -£3.7m
Northern Ireland domestic rates -£4.8m -£5.0m -£5.2m -£5.5m -£5.7m -£6.0m -£6.0m
Business rates +£3,508 +£348 -£2,177 +£1,134 -£1,407 +£2,772 -£2,187
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the -£196.2m -£207.5m -£218.1m -£228.5m -£239.5m -£250.7m -£262.0m
Land transaction tax (Wales) -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.7m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) -£0.9m -£0.9m -£0.9m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£1.1m -£1.1m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +£255.5m +£258.8m +£266.2m +£269.1m +£277.0m +£285.2m +£293.6m
Pension Credit +£0.9m +£1.8m -£0.8m +£0.4m -£1.1m -£2.2m -£8.9m
Winter Fuel Payment +£3.3m +£5.0m +£2.8m +£2.2m +£2.2m +£2.9m +£3.1m
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) -£0.3m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m
Universal Credit -£41.5m -£19.2m -£2.7m +£39.0m +£56.4m -£3.3m -£8.9m
Housing Benefit +£4.8m +£5.6m +£5.2m +£5.5m +£5.6m +£5.7m +£6.4m
Council Tax Reduction -£15.7m -£14.9m -£16.8m -£18.0m -£18.4m -£15.4m -£14.8m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -£6.2m -£6.4m -£6.5m -£6.7m -£6.8m -£7.0m -£7.2m
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) -£10.6m -£10.9m -£11.1m -£11.4m -£11.7m -£12.0m -£12.3m
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +£2.0m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) -£2.2m -£2.3m -£2.4m -£2.4m -£2.5m -£2.5m -£2.6m
Income Support +£6.8m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +£340.5m +£354.8m +£364.3m +£373.1m +£382.2m +£391.6m +£401.1m
Disability Living Allowance -£214.2m -£223.2m -£229.2m -£234.7m -£240.5m -£246.4m -£252.4m
Attendance Allowance +£72.0m +£75.0m +£77.1m +£78.9m +£80.8m +£82.8m +£84.9m
Carer's Allowance +£60.4m +£62.9m +£64.6m +£66.1m +£67.7m +£69.4m +£71.1m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -£8.3m -£8.6m -£8.8m -£9.1m -£9.3m -£9.5m -£9.7m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -£1.2m -£1.2m -£1.2m -£1.2m -£1.2m -£1.2m
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit -£4.5m -£4.6m -£4.7m -£4.8m -£5.0m -£5.1m -£5.2m
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme +£48.4m +£49.7m +£50.9m +£52.1m +£53.4m +£54.7m +£56.0m
Child Benefit -£31.0m -£31.8m -£34.1m -£34.8m -£35.7m -£36.4m -£35.9m
Scottish Child Payment +£4.8m +£4.8m +£4.9m +£5.1m +£5.0m +£5.2m +£5.7m
Healthy Start vouchers -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.5m
Statutory Maternity Pay +£12.2m +£12.5m +£12.8m +£13.1m +£13.4m +£13.7m +£14.1m
Statutory Sick Pay -£27.1m -£27.8m -£28.5m -£29.1m -£29.9m -£30.6m -£31.3m
Sure Start Maternity Grant +£16,169 +£16,231 +£16,291 +£16,356 +£16,428 +£16,502 +£16,573
Bereavement Support Payment -£16.0m -£16.5m -£16.9m -£17.3m -£17.7m -£18.1m -£18.6m
Tax-Free Childcare +£1.6m -£4.1m -£3.9m -£4.0m -£4.1m -£11.3m -£11.3m
Extended childcare entitlement -£45.1m -£56.1m -£47.8m -£55.0m -£55.8m -£109.7m -£63.7m
Universal childcare entitlement -£15.6m -£11.4m -£11.7m -£10.9m -£11.2m -£11.7m -£12.0m
Targeted childcare entitlement -£6.8m -£7.1m -£7.3m -£7.4m -£7.6m -£7.3m +£4.6m
Parents' Learning Allowance -£69,096 -£69,362 -£69,619 -£69,898 -£70,204 -£70,522 -£70,824
Adult Dependants' Grant +£47,740 +£47,921 -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.5m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
NHS spending -£27.7m -£27.8m -£27.9m -£28.0m -£28.1m -£28.2m -£28.4m
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending +£573 +£550 +£534 +£481 +£530 +£498 -£94

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +6.6k +5.7k +6.5k +6.6k +6.7k +6.7k +6.7k
Pension Credit +3.2k +9.3k +4.1k +3.4k +4.0k +4.9k +2.6k
Winter Fuel Payment +14.7k +21.3k +12.9k +9.2k +9.0k +13.0k +14.5k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) +393 +543 +37 +23 +23 +23 +23
Universal Credit -12.2k -10.6k -8.3k -10.4k -10.4k -7.6k -10.4k
Housing Benefit +494 +524 +540 +553 +555 +559 +687
Council Tax Reduction -1.5k +569 -3.7k -6.2k -2.3k -206 +7.5k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) +524 +526 +527 +532 +534 +537 +539
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.6k -1.6k -1.6k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +471 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) -422 -424 -425 -427 -429 -431 -433
Income Support +343 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +47.6k +47.8k +48.0k +48.2k +48.4k +48.6k +48.8k
Disability Living Allowance -37.4k -37.5k -37.7k -37.8k -38.0k -38.2k -38.3k
Attendance Allowance +11.6k +11.7k +11.7k +11.8k +11.8k +11.9k +11.9k
Carer's Allowance +13.9k +14.0k +14.0k +14.1k +14.2k +14.2k +14.3k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -2.0k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -1.9k -2.0k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit +201 +202 +202 +203 +204 +205 +206
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme +5.6k +5.6k +5.6k +5.7k +5.7k +5.7k +5.7k
Child Benefit -23.4k -23.3k -23.8k -23.9k -24.0k -24.0k -23.4k
Scottish Child Payment +3.4k +3.3k +3.3k +3.3k +3.2k +3.2k +3.5k
Healthy Start vouchers -7.1k -7.1k -7.1k -7.2k -7.2k -7.2k -7.3k
Statutory Maternity Pay -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.2k -1.2k -1.2k
Statutory Sick Pay -5.1k -5.1k -5.1k -5.1k -5.2k -5.2k -5.2k
Sure Start Maternity Grant +32 +32 +33 +33 +33 +33 +33
Bereavement Support Payment -2.8k -2.8k -2.8k -2.8k -2.9k -2.9k -2.9k
Tax-Free Childcare +1.4k -3.6k -4.5k -4.8k -5.2k -11.2k -10.4k
Extended childcare entitlement -10.5k -11.9k -10.1k -11.1k -11.1k -31.9k -11.7k
Universal childcare entitlement -4.5k -3.2k -3.2k -3.0k -3.0k -3.0k -3.1k
Targeted childcare entitlement -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.3k +834
Parents' Learning Allowance -34 -34 -34 -35 -35 -35 -35
Adult Dependants' Grant +13 +14 -143 -144 -144 -145 -151
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once +£711.0m +£737.9m +£750.1m +£769.1m +£771.1m +£776.3m +£811.0m
Government spending +£339.1m † +£355.5m † +£384.2m † +£427.3m † +£455.0m † +£351.1m † +£413.9m †
Government balance, each receipt once +£371.9m † +£382.5m † +£365.9m † +£341.8m † +£316.1m † +£425.2m † +£397.1m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax +£711.0m +£737.9m +£750.1m +£769.1m +£771.1m +£776.3m +£811.0m
household_tax +£879.2m +£907.3m +£922.3m +£945.0m +£949.7m +£958.0m +£992.1m
pre_budget_change_household_tax +£867.7m +£895.4m +£910.0m +£935.9m +£940.3m +£948.3m +£975.9m
gov_spending +£339.1m † +£355.5m † +£384.2m † +£427.3m † +£455.0m † +£351.1m † +£413.9m †
household_benefits +£339.1m † +£355.5m † +£384.2m † +£427.3m † +£455.0m † +£351.1m † +£413.9m †
gov_balance +£371.9m † +£382.5m † +£365.9m † +£341.8m † +£316.1m † +£425.2m † +£397.1m †

Components the model counts twice

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt +£335 +£42 -£210 +£118 -£139 +£257 -£211

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income +£2.48bn +£2.58bn +£2.66bn +£2.73bn +£2.82bn +£2.90bn +£3.01bn
Household net income +£2.76bn † +£2.88bn † +£3.00bn † +£3.11bn † +£3.23bn † +£3.23bn † +£3.40bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Population

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People -27.7k -27.8k -27.9k -28.0k -28.1k -28.2k -28.4k
Benefit units -32.9k -33.1k -33.2k -33.3k -33.5k -33.6k -33.8k
Households -16.7k -16.8k -16.8k -16.9k -17.0k -17.0k -17.1k

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£10.7m +£10.3m +£10.2m +£10.3m +£9.9m +£9.8m +£11.1m
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£22.9m +£24.6m +£26.0m +£27.0m +£28.3m +£29.6m +£31.0m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£7.7m -£0.7m +£0.2m -£2.2m +£1.2m +£0.3m -£76,917
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£18.0m -£15.7m -£15.9m -£17.7m -£16.9m -£16.7m -£16.2m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£26.7m -£25.0m -£31.2m -£29.2m -£45.9m -£49.4m -£68.5m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£11.6m +£12.3m +£13.1m +£10.5m +£10.9m +£10.2m +£12.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£46.6m -£47.9m -£49.0m -£50.2m -£51.4m -£52.7m -£54.0m
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£21.3m +£21.6m +£22.0m +£23.1m +£21.9m +£21.1m +£21.6m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£4.3m -£4.2m -£7.7m -£12.1m -£14.7m -£15.1m -£15.7m
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£30.3m -£24.3m -£31.0m -£34.5m -£35.2m -£36.0m -£39.6m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£9.3m +£9.4m +£9.0m +£8.6m +£8.8m +£8.9m +£9.0m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£23.1m +£24.8m +£26.2m +£27.1m +£28.4m +£29.7m +£30.9m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax -£7.4m -£0.8m +£0.2m -£2.3m +£0.9m -£0.3m -£0.2m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£0.3m +£0.4m +£49,644 +£61,961 +£49,199 +£70,652 +£0.1m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£27.0m +£25.2m +£31.4m +£29.6m +£46.3m +£49.8m +£68.8m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance +£9.8m +£9.6m +£10.1m +£10.2m +£11.2m +£10.9m +£11.1m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat -£46.6m -£47.9m -£49.0m -£50.2m -£51.4m -£52.7m -£54.0m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax +£21.3m +£21.6m +£22.0m +£23.1m +£21.9m +£21.1m +£21.6m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£4.6m +£4.6m +£8.0m +£12.4m +£15.0m +£15.6m +£16.2m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension +£25.6m +£25.9m +£26.6m +£26.9m +£27.7m +£28.5m +£29.4m

Household net income by decile

The datasets hold different households, so households are not matched; compare the mean income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (4)
  • Each model total's components are exactly the partition's heads and declared double counts (closure): gov_spending: the partition puts 'healthy_start_vouchers' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'scottish_child_payment' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'statutory_paternity_pay' in this total, but the model does not add it
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-80,895,740 in total; 2026-27: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-83,070,821 in total; 2027-28: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-85,045,745 in total
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to gov_spending (identity:gov_spending): 2025-26: 358 households differ, by a weighted £537,190,424 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 360 households differ, by a weighted £558,244,619 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 360 households differ, by a weighted £571,846,500 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to household_benefits (identity:household_benefits): 2025-26: 1,819 households differ, by a weighted £92,463,455 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 1,791 households differ, by a weighted £94,409,878 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 1,739 households differ, by a weighted £94,780,199 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
Counted-once check

Counted-once check not run: not requested.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.17 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 201.65s
head policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.17 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 171.28s

Base dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 218fa40a8b04fbd7b771fc0cfaa97e7db11a583eab817c9279942100be8f110d, the base's build.

Head dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 e70364e5847265eb4d6b90d48e13e92e7fe84234f5b288dcd2ce2a15752c6f2e, this pull request's build.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.26bn £317.74bn £333.69bn £348.09bn £364.04bn £381.42bn £401.29bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.17bn £53.37bn £55.12bn £56.71bn £58.61bn £60.43bn £62.76bn
National Insurance (employer) £151.19bn £157.64bn £162.52bn £167.05bn £173.77bn £179.20bn £186.25bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £25.18bn £26.04bn £26.99bn £27.96bn £28.93bn £29.99bn £31.08bn
Student loan repayments £7.71bn £8.00bn £8.22bn £8.43bn £8.65bn £8.90bn £8.29bn
VAT £323.88bn £332.59bn £340.49bn £348.69bn £357.23bn £366.02bn £374.94bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.04bn £24.14bn £26.10bn £26.16bn £25.89bn £25.24bn £25.82bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.50bn £4.66bn £4.68bn £4.70bn £4.72bn £4.74bn £4.77bn
Council tax £48.71bn £51.54bn £54.81bn £58.34bn £61.87bn £65.55bn £65.83bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.74bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £1.12bn £1.18bn £1.23bn £1.29bn £1.35bn £1.42bn £1.42bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £19.55bn £20.43bn £21.39bn £22.36bn £23.36bn £24.47bn £25.66bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.07bn £0.07bn £0.07bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £133.46bn £138.54bn £140.79bn £143.17bn £147.39bn £151.76bn £156.22bn
Pension Credit £6.54bn £7.15bn £7.03bn £7.08bn £7.19bn £7.30bn £7.31bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.69bn £1.66bn £1.62bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.58bn £1.57bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn
Universal Credit £78.86bn £83.07bn £84.89bn £86.44bn £87.36bn £84.57bn £85.07bn
Housing Benefit £8.34bn £8.67bn £8.87bn £9.07bn £9.35bn £9.59bn £9.55bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.17bn £2.23bn £2.30bn £2.36bn £2.42bn £2.50bn £2.46bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £3.19bn £3.28bn £3.35bn £3.43bn £3.51bn £3.59bn £3.68bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £4.74bn £4.87bn £4.98bn £5.10bn £5.23bn £5.36bn £5.49bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.05bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.17bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £30.43bn £31.71bn £32.56bn £33.35bn £34.16bn £35.00bn £35.86bn
Disability Living Allowance £8.12bn £8.46bn £8.69bn £8.90bn £9.12bn £9.34bn £9.57bn
Attendance Allowance £7.78bn £8.11bn £8.33bn £8.53bn £8.74bn £8.95bn £9.17bn
Carer's Allowance £3.97bn £4.14bn £4.25bn £4.35bn £4.46bn £4.57bn £4.68bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.35bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn
Child Benefit £16.35bn £16.99bn £17.42bn £17.82bn £18.23bn £18.67bn £19.08bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.48bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.55bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.84bn £3.95bn £4.04bn £4.14bn £4.24bn £4.34bn £4.45bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £0.97bn £0.99bn £1.02bn £1.04bn £1.07bn £1.09bn £1.12bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.45bn £0.44bn £0.44bn £0.45bn £0.46bn £0.47bn £0.47bn
Extended childcare entitlement £3.76bn £4.17bn £4.29bn £4.41bn £4.52bn £4.69bn £4.82bn
Universal childcare entitlement £1.51bn £1.59bn £1.64bn £1.68bn £1.72bn £1.75bn £1.79bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £208.41bn £209.20bn £209.98bn £210.82bn £211.74bn £212.70bn £213.61bn
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £30.94bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,748k 11,642k 11,394k 11,306k 11,356k 11,407k 11,456k
Pension Credit 1,369k 1,392k 1,346k 1,329k 1,329k 1,327k 1,307k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,149k 7,027k 6,805k 6,670k 6,647k 6,617k 6,605k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 710k 703k 691k 685k 688k 691k 694k
Universal Credit 6,372k 6,402k 6,428k 6,430k 6,405k 6,394k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,211k 1,209k 1,203k 1,199k 1,205k 1,205k 1,201k
Council Tax Reduction 3,612k 3,640k 3,682k 3,705k 3,728k 3,748k 3,723k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 310k 311k 312k 313k 314k 316k 317k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 667k 669k 672k 675k 678k 681k 684k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 9k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 60k 60k 60k 60k 61k 61k 61k
Income Support 26k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 4,134k 4,150k 4,165k 4,182k 4,200k 4,219k 4,237k
Disability Living Allowance 1,333k 1,338k 1,343k 1,348k 1,354k 1,360k 1,366k
Attendance Allowance 1,538k 1,544k 1,550k 1,556k 1,563k 1,570k 1,577k
Carer's Allowance 917k 921k 924k 928k 932k 936k 940k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 158k 159k 159k 160k 161k 161k 162k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 66k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Child Benefit 7,957k 7,970k 7,984k 8,010k 8,037k 8,069k 8,082k
Scottish Child Payment 338k 340k 341k 343k 341k 342k 341k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 231k 232k 232k 233k 234k 235k 236k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 304k 305k 306k 307k 309k 310k 312k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 151k 152k 153k 153k 154k 155k 155k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 22k 22k 22k 22k 23k 23k 23k
Bereavement Support Payment 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 187k 187k
Tax-Free Childcare 966k 951k 952k 957k 934k 945k 934k
Extended childcare entitlement 792k 783k 790k 793k 795k 805k 823k
Universal childcare entitlement 438k 449k 451k 453k 454k 453k 456k
Targeted childcare entitlement 76k 77k 77k 77k 78k 76k 75k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 94k 95k 95k 96k 96k 96k 97k
Adult Dependants' Grant 17k 17k 14k 15k 15k 15k 14k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £987.11bn £1,029.11bn £1,067.06bn £1,102.26bn £1,140.93bn £1,179.91bn £1,220.67bn
Government spending £554.17bn † £568.85bn † £576.29bn † £583.71bn † £592.70bn † £598.23bn † £611.76bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £432.94bn † £460.27bn † £490.77bn † £518.55bn † £548.24bn † £581.68bn † £608.91bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £990.24bn £1,032.24bn £1,070.19bn £1,105.39bn £1,144.06bn £1,183.04bn £1,223.80bn
household_tax £515.17bn £542.02bn £567.17bn £589.66bn £613.07bn £637.83bn £662.61bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £507.46bn £534.02bn £558.95bn £580.54bn £603.71bn £628.20bn £653.58bn
gov_spending £554.17bn † £568.85bn † £576.29bn † £583.71bn † £592.70bn † £598.23bn † £611.76bn †
household_benefits £554.17bn † £568.85bn † £576.29bn † £583.71bn † £592.70bn † £598.23bn † £611.76bn †
gov_balance £436.07bn † £463.40bn † £493.90bn † £521.68bn † £551.37bn † £584.81bn † £612.04bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,662.23bn £1,724.50bn £1,777.30bn £1,828.02bn £1,893.54bn £1,952.13bn £2,024.15bn
Household net income £1,660.78bn † £1,709.34bn † £1,743.27bn † £1,777.84bn † £1,813.55bn † £1,851.54bn † £1,909.80bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 70,732k 71,001k 71,264k 71,549k 71,864k 72,187k 72,498k
Benefit units 38,918k 39,066k 39,211k 39,367k 39,541k 39,719k 39,889k
Households 32,056k 32,178k 32,297k 32,426k 32,569k 32,716k 32,856k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.04bn £6.31bn £6.52bn £6.71bn £6.91bn £7.14bn £7.40bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.76bn £4.06bn £4.30bn £4.52bn £4.78bn £5.07bn £5.28bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.59bn £-3.69bn £-3.80bn £-3.86bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-1.67bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.05bn £-1.82bn £-1.70bn £-1.59bn £-1.48bn £-1.37bn £-1.26bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-16.79bn £-17.43bn £-17.67bn £-17.87bn £-17.92bn £-18.14bn £-18.16bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.63bn £11.04bn £11.35bn £11.60bn £11.89bn £12.19bn £12.63bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £31.94bn £32.80bn £33.58bn £34.38bn £35.23bn £36.09bn £36.97bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £3.28bn £3.53bn £3.74bn £3.95bn £4.19bn £4.44bn £4.80bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-2.97bn £-3.12bn £-3.17bn £-3.22bn £-3.24bn £-3.28bn £-3.33bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-9.77bn £-10.02bn £-10.10bn £-10.20bn £-10.43bn £-10.68bn £-10.97bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.15bn £6.43bn £6.64bn £6.84bn £7.05bn £7.28bn £7.54bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.77bn £4.06bn £4.30bn £4.53bn £4.79bn £5.08bn £5.30bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.69bn £-3.81bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-1.73bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.50bn £2.29bn £2.17bn £2.05bn £1.94bn £1.82bn £1.70bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £16.83bn £17.47bn £17.71bn £17.91bn £17.96bn £18.18bn £18.21bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £10.82bn £11.23bn £11.54bn £11.82bn £12.11bn £12.42bn £12.87bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £31.94bn £32.80bn £33.58bn £34.38bn £35.23bn £36.09bn £36.97bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £3.28bn £3.53bn £3.74bn £3.95bn £4.19bn £4.44bn £4.80bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £2.97bn £3.12bn £3.17bn £3.22bn £3.25bn £3.29bn £3.33bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £13.35bn £13.85bn £14.08bn £14.32bn £14.74bn £15.18bn £15.62bn

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Remove the unused x and y columns from the constituency and local authority lists

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