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FRS benefit units keep some qualifying young persons apart from the adults responsible for them #562

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Description

@MaxGhenis

What is wrong

policyengine_uk_data/datasets/frs.py keeps the FRS's own benefit units (pe_person["person_benunit_id"] = person.benunit_id). The FRS puts a 16- to 19-year-old in an adult's benefit unit only if they are a dependent child on the HBAI definition: unmarried, living with parents, and in full-time non-advanced education. Benefit law is wider, so some young people the law treats as an adult's qualifying young person (QYP) sit in a benefit unit of their own. policyengine-uk works out each programme per benefit unit, so the responsible adult's unit never counts them.

Who the law covers that the FRS split does not:

Evidence

16-year-olds outside education (research for PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2279, Enhanced FRS 2024-25 at uk-data 1.57.4, 2026):

  • 196.7k weighted 16-year-olds are outside education (83 records).
  • 190.6k of them (63 records) head a single-person benefit unit of their own.
  • Every one of those 63 records shares a household with another benefit unit that has an adult aged 36 to 68.
  • Adding the reg. 5(1)(a) route in #2279 therefore moves universal_credit by £0: the route cannot reach the parents' claim.

16- to 18-year-olds in education in their own unit (run for PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2281, uk-data 1.58.0, 2026):

  • 20 records, 5,339 weighted people, are in education, meet the Child Benefit QYP test, and are the only member of their own benefit unit.
  • All 20 share a household with at least one other benefit unit.
  • In records carrying 3,901 of the 5,339, another unit in the household has a member flagged is_parent.
  • None of their own units reports Child Benefit; another unit in the household does in records carrying 1,974.
  • The largest case is a 17-year-old in upper secondary education living with people aged 45, 51, 13 and 5.
  • By the FRS definition these young people should be dependent children if they live with their parents, so either they do not (the other adults are not their parents) or current_education (from TYPEED2 and FTED) says "in education" where the FRS's dependent-child flag says no. Which it is has not been checked.

Effect in policyengine-uk

What is needed

A way for policyengine-uk to see which adult is responsible for a young person who is in their own FRS benefit unit. Two candidate designs, not yet chosen:

  • re-form benefit units on benefit-law dependency (keep a 16-year-old before their 1 September, and other QYPs living with a parent, in the parent's unit); or
  • keep the FRS units and export a person-level link to the responsible adult's benefit unit, for policyengine-uk to read.

Either needs the FRS household relationship grid to identify the parent, and a policyengine-uk change to read it. Related: #486 (supply is_hbai_dependent_child from the FRS).

Activity

  1. MaxGhenis commented on Oct 10, 2026

    @MaxGhenis
    ContributorAuthor

    Measured figures for this issue, from uk-data 1.58.0 and the raw FRS 2024-25 tables (aggregates only; the 1.57.4 numbers in the body are superseded).

    16-year-olds outside education and training

    Stage 16-year-olds Outside qualifying education or training Of those, head of own one-person benefit unit
    Raw FRS 2024-25 (GROSS4) and frs_2024_25.h5 @1.58.0 946.3k (416 records) 72.6k (25 records) 59.4k (19 records), 82%
    enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 @1.58.0 1,145.6k (1,374 records) 150.6k (83 records) 145.9k (63 records), 97%
    Enhanced @1.57.4 (the figures in the issue body) 1,085.5k 194.6k (83 records)

    16- to 18-year-olds in education in their own unit (the second evidence block)

    Traced to the raw tables: the 20 enhanced records are copies of 6 adult-table FRS records aged 16 to 18 (20.0k on GROSS4; two each at 16, 17 and 18) with EDUCFT = 1.

    • All 6 are one-person benefit units and none is the household reference person. 5 are the reference person's child and 1 is their sibling.
    • Their TYPEED2 is 3 (3 records) or 8 (3 records). create_frs maps those codes to lower or upper secondary by age (frs.py:1012-1047).
    • So it is the second of the two explanations in the body for at least 5 of the 6: they live with a parent and report full-time education, yet the FRS does not class them as dependent children. Why is not established. TYPEED2 3 and 8 also appear on child-table records at 16 (19 records), so the code alone does not explain it, and the value labels are not in this repo.

    For the design choice

    Measured effects of re-forming the units against keeping them (policyengine-uk#2279 on 1.58.0 with the 16-year-olds moved into the reference person's unit, and the same on the FRS grossing weights) are being run now; I will add them here.

    Revised 11 October after an independent fact-check: kinship stated as an assumption, post-fix shares added.

  2. MaxGhenis commented on Oct 11, 2026

    @MaxGhenis
    ContributorAuthor

    Measured effects for the design choice, as promised above. Every figure is a pair of policyengine-uk microsimulations on the same dataset, so each difference is #2279's effect on that dataset: base 3173baa8 against policyengine-uk#2279 at 6af70194.

    Datasets. uk-data 1.58.0 with #561's training fix applied, then three variants:

    • benefit units as the FRS has them;
    • the 16-year-olds outside education and training moved into the household reference person's unit, when they are that person's child or step-child;
    • the same, also moving the one grandchild record.

    The last row of the table repeats this on the FRS grossing weights (frs_2024_25.h5), because the enhanced weights for this cell rest on two households (#563).

    Each move lasts the whole year. It clears the person's head and claimant flags and removes their old unit; other inputs are left as they were. The figures are therefore #2279's effect on that edited dataset. They are not estimates of any particular implementation.

    Dataset 16-year-olds moved #2279: UC child element #2279: Universal Credit, 2025-26 #2279: Universal Credit, 2026-27 Benefit units whose UC changes
    Enhanced 1.58.0 as released (training bug in) 0 +£18.4m £0 £0 0
    Enhanced 1.58.0 + #561, FRS units 0 £0 £0 £0 0
    + child and step-child moved 59 records, 89.9k +£375.6m +£38.1m +£39.6m 17 records, 9.1k (6 FRS households)
    + grandchild moved too 63 records, 147.5k +£618.6m +£38.1m +£39.6m 17 records, 9.1k (6 FRS households)
    FRS grossing weights + #561, all moved 19 records, 60.0k +£240.3m +£84.0m +£87.5m 8 records, 18.5k (8 FRS households)

    The child element and counts are for 2026-27. Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and the benefit cap reduction do not move in any row.

    What this shows:

    • With the FRS units, #2279's route (a) reaches nobody. Once Read approved training from the FRS TRAINEE flag for dependants #561 codes the six trainees correctly, not one child element moves.
    • On a dataset with the young people moved, #2279 is worth about £40m of UC a year on the released weights, and about £87m on the FRS weights. Most of the moved 16-year-olds join units that do not get UC: 9.1k of 89.9k on the enhanced weights, and 18.5k of 60.0k on the FRS weights.
    • Moving them changes UC on its own, before #2279. In 2025-26 it adds £3.5m on the enhanced weights and £17.0m on the FRS weights, all within the moved households. So moving them plus #2279 is about £41.6m or £101.0m against today's units with Read approved training from the FRS TRAINEE flag for dependants #561.
    • Linking is not merging. A link from the young person to the responsible adult's unit, leaving the FRS units in place, would not pool the young person's capital and income into the parent's assessment (uc_assessable_capital.py:37-55). Its effect would differ and has not been measured.
    • Kinship is an assumption. Kinship to the reference person is a routing assumption, not established legal responsibility.
    • Other routes exist. policyengine-uk could route to the reference person's unit without a data change (benunit_contains_household_head.py), but it cannot tell a child from another household member.
    • These are full-year figures. On uniform birthdays and the model's age convention, a model-year-16 person outside education is a child or in the route for 0.464 of the year. The route's own share is 0.338. Neither is a factor to scale spending by.
    • The estimate is fragile. It rests on six FRS households on the enhanced weights, or eight on the FRS weights.
    • Comparisons across datasets. add_universal_credit_reform draws its new-claimant seed by benefit-unit position (policyengine_uk/scenarios/uc_reform.py:59-61). Comparing a re-formed dataset with the released one directly is therefore contaminated from 2026-27, where that draw is active: removing 59 units moves UC in 371 units, 361 of them outside the moved households. Base-against-branch pairs on one dataset are unaffected.

    Revised 11 October after an independent fact-check: the figures are labelled as effects on the edited dataset, the separate effect of moving the units is added, and linking is separated from merging.

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