Replay the five events on policyengine.py 6.2.6 and diff against the legacy run

results/uk/replays/diffs/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z__pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/packets/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs__2024.md

@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+# Investigation packet: autumn_budget_2024 / autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs / CY2024
+
+This pipeline files no issues. The coordinating session reviews the packet and decides whether to file upstream.
+
+* Title: Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT to 18% and 24% from 30 October 2024, and the Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors' Relief (IR) rate to 14% from 6 April 2025 and to 18% from 6 April 2026
+* Flags: construction
+* Base: `pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z`
+* Head: `pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0`
+
+## Movements (£m, positive = gain to the Exchequer)
+
+| Level | Key | Base | Head | Change | Flags | Details |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|
+| source_row | obr_pmd_nov2025:11682:73295721bdfdb9e8 | — | — | — | — | — |
+| source_row | obr_pmd_nov2025:11688:dcd2e2e6301193f3 | — | — | — | — | — |
+| source_row | obr_pmd_nov2025:11694:ade1673d32f6604b | — | — | — | — | — |
+| source_row | obr_pmd_nov2025:22829:48aea91ecc2734f1 | — | — | — | — | — |
+| source_row | obr_pmd_nov2025:22835:93eff38f9e206ebc | — | — | — | — | — |
+| measure_year | total | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | construction | premise_check_changed (annual_value_matches_30_april_sample) |
+| head | capital_gains_tax | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | — |
+
+## OBR source cells
+
+| Source row | Table / column | FY | Head | OBR £m | Base £m | Head £m |
+|---|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
+| obr_pmd_nov2025:11682:73295721bdfdb9e8 (row 11682) | Tax Measures (Policy measures database) / 2024-25 | 2024-25 | Capital gains tax | 0.0 | — | — |
+| obr_pmd_nov2025:11688:dcd2e2e6301193f3 (row 11688) | Tax Measures (Policy measures database) / 2024-25 | 2024-25 | Stamp duty | 36.7 | — | — |
+| obr_pmd_nov2025:11694:ade1673d32f6604b (row 11694) | Tax Measures (Policy measures database) / 2024-25 | 2024-25 | Income tax | 45.9 | — | — |
+| obr_pmd_nov2025:22829:48aea91ecc2734f1 (row 22829) | Spending Measures (Policy measures database) / 2024-25 | 2024-25 | Scottish BGA (current) | 4.5 | — | — |
+| obr_pmd_nov2025:22835:93eff38f9e206ebc (row 22835) | Spending Measures (Policy measures database) / 2024-25 | 2024-25 | PSCE in RDEL | 0.9 | — | — |
+
+## Executed worlds
+
+* base: `results/uk/events/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2024.json` (sha256 `f5255a6f3c63b7a373a9665927152ba898439ee7ad0a1392ff675d8ef5c7b881`), reversal_on_certified_world; baseline dict `{"gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.2}, "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.1}, "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.2}}`; reform dict `null`
+* head: `results/uk/replays/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2024.json` (sha256 `fba723817c3ae54c242d9e72efce756d125acc0cf0da69d4a577fad0feb01cb5`), reversal_on_certified_world; baseline dict `{"gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.2}, "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.1}, "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate": {"2024-10-30.2035-12-31": 0.2}}`; reform dict `null`
+
+## Reproduce
+
+base:
+
+```bash
+PYTHONPATH=. python pipeline/compute_uk_event.py --event autumn_budget_2024 --variant pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z --measures autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs --years 2024 --workers 1 --output-dir .venv-replay-checks/reproductions/pe5.0.2_uk2.89.2_populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2024
+```
+
+head:
+
+```bash
+PYTHONPATH=. python pipeline/compute_uk_event.py --event autumn_budget_2024 --variant pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0 --measures autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs --years 2024 --workers 1 --output-dir .venv-replay-checks/reproductions/pe6.2.6_uk2.125.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.0/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2024
+```
+
+## Sources the registry cites
+
+* none recorded
+
+## Minimal case
+
+To be completed by the investigating lane.
+
+## Statutory evidence
+
+To be completed by the investigating lane.