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PTA post: say we have not established why our reach exceeds the Treasury's #1483

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Oct 28, 2026
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PTA post: say we have not established why our reach exceeds the Treasury's #1483

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PTA post: say we have not established why our reach exceeds the Treas…
MaxGhenis Oct 28, 2026
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Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into pta-post-reach-sentence
MaxGhenis Oct 28, 2026
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md
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Expand Up @@ -754,7 +754,7 @@ In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less

### Who gains

In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 857,000 in 2028-29 and 1.09 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £97 and £132 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament.
In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 857,000 in 2028-29 and 1.09 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £97 and £132 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. PolicyEngine's counts are about a third higher than the Treasury's, and we have not established why. Both count people over State Pension age whose income tax falls; the government's costing estimates them with HMRC's Personal Tax Model and administrative data, and PolicyEngine with its representative sample of households.

Very few households lose: fewer than 10,000 in each year, too few in the survey sample to estimate the number precisely. From 2028-29, some of them lose a free TV licence, as household 5 does.

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