UK: port the #1095 fixes that need no new policyengine-uk release by juaristi22 · Pull Request #1200 · PolicyEngine/microcosm

juaristi22 · 2026-10-11T00:35:32Z

This is the third #1095 ports PR. It covers every actionable item on #1095 that waits for no policyengine-uk release, on the locked policyengine-uk 2.122.2.

A calibration of this head passes 6 of the 7 calibrated-seam gates. uk_weight_ratio fails at 1,155 against the fence of 1,151. Main, this branch's base, fails the same gate at 1,213, so the gate was already failing before this PR (below). Main's evidence reader refuses real run manifests (#1187), so both calibrations ran with #1188's fix on top, for measurement only.

Before any national build: the renewals of the measure exclusions that expire from 15 October, and a resolution of main's weight-ratio breach. After merge, as for #1100 and #1121: the signed-difference entries for the new and changed columns (D1, D5, D3, D4), whose drafts stay outside the repository until signed, then the national build and the certifier.

Summary

Root columns (D1, D5, D6)

D1. UC gainful self-employment (Set UC gainful self-employment from the FRS main-job status policyengine-uk-data#525). uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment holds for a self-employed main job, whatever its profit, or for a side trade whose profit is above zero and above pay (UC Regs 2013 reg 64(a)). The engine's own rule read any nonzero self-employment income as gainful, so a trader at a loss never met the minimum income floor.
- SPI-channel rows keep their donor's employment status but draw new incomes that don't read it. So they take the earnings route alone, until the SPI draw follows employment status (Draw SPI incomes within earnings groups set by FRS employment status policyengine-uk-data#529, UK spine: composition-faithful SPI income draw — bridge predictors and rank-preserving replacement (with-children UC residual) #840).
D5. Children placed by a local authority. is_looked_after_by_local_authority marks foster children under 16, whom the FRS puts in the carer's benefit unit. The engine counted them as the carer's own children in its child tests. At 16 or over the FRS makes a foster child with a local authority allowance a separate benefit unit, so the rule stops there.
D6. Loss-making landlords keep the CGT residential signal. UK FRS spine: stop counting lodgers' rent and property losses as property income; sub-letting rent for every tenure #1081 counts a letting loss as zero property income, so those landlords lost one of the CGT split's two residential signs. An internal flag, dropped at export, restores it for FRS rows. A redrawn SPI row drops its twin's flag, since its property income is an SPI donor's.

Take-up and capital (D2, D3, D4)

D2. The UC take-up population is benefit units with a UC claimant or partner aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age, the age half of the engine's is_uc_eligible (Supply is_hbai_dependent_child from the FRS and move targets and imputations off the deprecated is_child/is_adult policyengine-uk-data#486, Supply is_claimant_or_partner from the FRS adult table policyengine-uk-data#524). An engine lockstep test names the two cases it doesn't mirror: reg 8 claimants aged 16–17, and mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route. The contract's population text is re-signed with the rate unchanged.
D3. Property in recorded capital. UC and Pension Credit recorded capital add the unit's share of its household's countable property to the financial carrier, mirroring each engine proxy. The engine replaces every capital source with the recorded figure, and the FRS capital question holds no property.
- A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records no UC share. DWP assessed its capital to pay it, and the property is imputed without that receipt.
- The reporter redraw screens an FRS unit that reports UC on its carrier alone, so that unit stays in the training set.
- The uk_uc_capital_coherence gate re-derives both capitals, with the reporter rule, and now checks Pension Credit capital.
- Open for María's ruling: the share follows the engine's proxy, which is gross value shared pro rata. The review measured what that leaves out (below).
D4. Pension Credit take-up (Solve Pension Credit take-up over entitled benefit units policyengine-uk-data#510) is solved over Great Britain, where DWP's rates apply, and drawn UK-wide. Units not entitled are drawn at the 37% rate, so a reform that entitles them pays them. Entitlement is read at the calibration year, on the frame policyengine-uk projects there from its survey year.

Targets (T1–T6)

T5. The 13 HMRC SPI savings-interest band targets reach 2025 in two legs (Regenerate the uprating factor table from policyengine-uk's load-time uprating policyengine-uk-data#541): ONS household interest income to the dataset's year, 2024, then GDP per head, the index policyengine-uk's dataset projection applies. Their factor moves from 1.182 to 1.192. The SPI donor rebase is unchanged.
T6. The PIP daily-living caseload rows take obr.pip's England and Wales scope, resolve, and are then held as diagnostics on obr.pip (T6b): fitting them breaks the weight-ratio fence (below).
T3. obr.council_tax binds OBR table 4.1 row 15, England, Scotland and Wales receipts, over Great Britain's households. Row 19, bound before, adds Northern Ireland domestic rates and two adjustments no household carries (£1.34bn).
T4. obr.ni becomes a diagnostic beside the three class rows. It's a cash total against accrued class rows, and it carries items no household pays (Stop calibrating OBR total NICs on ni_employee policyengine-uk-data#537).
T2. The salary-sacrifice relief bands bind by income tax rate class (Restore HMRC salary sacrifice relief calibration targets policyengine-uk-data#533). The measure resolver gains a declared allocation: the rise in tax on earned income, bracket by bracket, under each person's rest-of-UK or Scottish schedule. uk-data's worked examples reproduce exactly. The measure refuses if a person's classes stop adding up to the engine's earned_income_tax. The all-rates total becomes a diagnostic, and the three exclusions retire.
T1. UC award bands read in whole pence (Calibrate GB universal credit to one OBR total; reach the UC payment top band policyengine-uk-data#530). The "£2,500.01 or over" band stays unbound (below).

What the measurement changed

The first head bound the top UC band and fitted the two PIP rows. It failed two gates, and calibrate-only runs on its spine attributed each failure to one change.

The PIP rows raise the weight ratio. They fit within 0.1%, but on that spine they pushed the heaviest support family, a single FRS household, by 180 times the positive median. So T6b holds them as diagnostics.
The top UC band costs the UC total. Unbound, the calibration holds 2.57 times DWP's count of lone parents in it and 1.99 times for couples with children, £13.1bn of UC, and reaches OBR's £76.1bn. Bound to DWP's counts, obr.universal_credit falls to −5.6%. Couples without children also have no household in the band. So the band stays unbound, as on main. The awards below it are too low for DWP's band counts and OBR's total to fit together, which needs its own issue.
D3 for every unit put UC reporters over the capital limit. On the Arm 2 spine, 90 FRS-channel rows that report UC went above £16,000 through property alone. 70 were in households with no property income, and 45 in households with two or more benefit units. Hence the reporter rule.
D1 from the donor's status flagged SPI rows with no trade. 1.67m weighted SPI-channel people were flagged with no self-employment income. Hence the earnings route for SPI rows.

María ruled on all four on 2026-10-10. The sparse-band support floor the plan added moves to its own PR.

Review round 1 (11 October)

An adversarial review of cf42d8a7a is in the comments. Five commits answer it.

D4 read 2024 values against 2025 rules, because the engine adapter stamped the frame with the entitlement year. The frame is now stamped with its survey year and projected. Units entitled to Guarantee Credit fall from 1,354k to 1,247k.
T5 rebased the 2022-23 SPI donors to 2024 by GDP per head, and so dropped the rise in savings interest of those years (ONS household interest income is ×1.99 from 2022 to 2023). The donor rebase is main's again, and only the projection leg of the band targets uses GDP per head. This was the cause of the pull on the top income cells that the first write-up assigned to T5 as a side effect.
D3's training screen dropped FRS units that report UC and hold imputed property. It now screens them on their carrier.
D6 let a redrawn SPI row keep its FRS twin's landlord flag, which turned the CGT residential signal on for 695k weighted SPI-channel people. Redrawn rows now drop it.
T2 now checks its classes against the engine's earned_income_tax.
W is reverted. With these fixes the West Midlands £12,570–15,000 income-tax cell is at +26.9%, above the bound, so María's deferral is needed. The retirement relied on the T5 error.

Open for María's ruling, from the review:

D3, who holds the property and at what value. Fewer than 10 benefit units are on the −1 sentinel, so the recorded figure decides alone.
- Shared pro rata, £104bn of property sits on 0.99m benefit units that are not the household reference person's.
- On the WAS donor file, mortgages on other property are 26% of its value, and countable value less 10% and secured debt is 64% of gross.
- The engine side of the valuation is Value means-tested capital less 10% sale expenses and secured debt (UC reg 49 and legacy equivalents) policyengine-uk#1969.
The signed differences. The committed uc-reported-capital-net-new-column text predates D3.

Where this departs from the plan

D5 reads the foster relationship code alone. The carer's fostering allowance covers fewer than 10 of the 13 looked-after children the FRS records.
D2 doesn't use Max's test scaffolding, which isn't on main. His uk-take-up-per-person-spa branch solves the State Pension age by date of birth and will need a rebase onto D2.
D3 uses one share helper for both proxies, because the Pension Credit share needs a different owner set.
T3 adds an exact-id geography pin: the substring rule would read "scotland" in the row's concept.
T3 and T4 give their compile-parity rows their own rationales.
T5 changes the projection leg of the targets only (review round 1).
T6b lets a diagnostic reference carry a fact dated by month.
T1 leaves the top band unbound, and the support floor moves out (above).

Measurement

Each arm was built and calibrated locally on Chronicle 825406f. The control is this branch's base, main 7639ef8b0. The control and the head both carry #1188's commit on top, which changes the evidence reader and its tests only.

Control (main 7639ef8b0). Loss 0.00702, 98.5% of 1,167 targets within 10%, ESS 4,840.
- uk_weight_ratio fails: 1,213 against 1,151. One FRS household is the heaviest support family. It was at 1,059 on d50220d1f. An arm at Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087's merge commit gives 1,213 too, so Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087 moved it.
- The West Midlands cell is at +26.5%, under its deferral.
This head. Loss 0.00691, 98.5% of 1,168 targets within 10%, ESS 4,849. Six of the 7 gates and the input-mass gate pass.
- uk_weight_ratio fails: 1,155 against 1,151, on the same FRS household.
- obr.universal_credit and obr.pip calibrate to 0.0%, obr.council_tax to −7.2% (control −9.5%), obr.vat to +23.5% (control +24.1%), and the three salary-sacrifice bands to within 0.3%. 108 of 111 UC cells are within 10% (control 106).
- The £500,000–1,000,000 employment-income band is at −1.9% (control −3.4%).
- 51 FRS-channel benefit units that report UC keep their receipt; 44 of them would have gone above £16,000.
- On the head's weights, uk_uc_capital_coherence and uk_take_up_signal pass. The arm pipeline leaves both to the certifier, so they were run with their own evaluators.
Earlier arms, on the older base d50220d1f, are in the receipts. They attributed the first head's failures, and their deltas also carry Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087's effect.

Full numbers are in experiments/1095-uk-data-ports-3-receipts.md.

Testing

Each commit: touched-surface tests.
This head:
- the engine-free lane's 534 test files, with policyengine-uk blocked as in CI: 16,152 passed and 140 skipped. The three failures are environmental: the live Hugging Face pointer test fails on main too, the telemetry token exchange needs the hosted service, and main's US head-to-head scorer test needs Python 3.14.7;
- the engine-uk lane's 41 test files, run in full: 179 passed;
- against the pinned feed: the national compile-parity receipts regenerate identically, the committed references regenerate, and the NICs, PIP and salary-sacrifice diagnostics resolve their exact facts (45 passed).
Lint and CI plan: ruff check and ruff format --check pass on the 66 changed Python files, and so do tools/ci_test_plan.py verify and tools/graph_acceptance_burndown.py --verify.

Overlaps and what follows

Before any national build: the renewals of the measure exclusions that expire from 15 October, and Bound native evidence by bytes, not by the schema item budget #1188.
UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145 (UK landlords) also edits the target contract, measure_simulation.py, spi_income.py and the reference generator, and it deletes the West Midlands deferral this PR keeps. Its engine-input change drops this PR's internal landlord flag from the calibration input, which no measure reads.
One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198 holds hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_total in its uprating register. This PR turns that row into a diagnostic, and One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198's compile refuses a hold that matches no held row. Whichever merges second removes the id. One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198 also rescales the West Midlands cell and adds a filter to the savings-interest binding T5 re-indexes.
Set UK road-fuel and energy levels in the LCFS stage on a calendar-2024 basis (#1113) #1167 excludes obr.vat, this head's other cell near the bound, and changes the spine.
Feeds: this PR is on 825406f, Set UK road-fuel and energy levels in the LCFS stage on a calendar-2024 basis (#1113) #1167 on 1ee7dfe and One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198 on 942a1fa. Whichever lands first, the others regenerate their references, membership and parity receipts on the new feed and re-measure. Generated surfaces (contract.py, the coverage manifest, the H2 fixture, the export-surface list) regenerate; they are not merged by hand.
Left for later PRs: the sparse-band support floor, SPI incomes by employment status (Draw SPI incomes within earnings groups set by FRS employment status policyengine-uk-data#529, with UK spine: composition-faithful SPI income draw — bridge predictors and rank-preserving replacement (with-children UC residual) #840), the WAS property draw, the UC awards below the top band, and the weight year.

Receipts: experiments/1095-uk-data-ports-3-receipts.md.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

The calibration of #1121's head ran on 2026-10-08 (arm head-r3, tree c7fe76e8a, the tree of the merged head): loss 0.00712, 98.3% of 1,167 targets within 10%, 7 of 7 seam gates and the certifier's input-mass gate passing with the West Midlands deferral and the two UC band exclusions in force. The results were posted on #1121 rather than pushed, to avoid another CI run; this records them in the receipts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

) Nothing set policyengine-uk's uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment, so the engine's rule applied: any nonzero self_employment_income was gainful. The spine floors losses at zero, so a trader at a loss or breaking even never met the Universal Credit minimum income floor (uc_mif_applies, the input's only reader), while an employee with a small side trade did. Port uk-data#525's rule (UC Regs 2013 reg 64(a); ADM H4031, H4034): a self-employed main job (EMPSTATI 3 or 4) whatever its profit, or a side trade whose SEINCAM2 profit is above zero and above INEARNS pay. The root stage sets it. SPI-channel rows keep their donor's status but draw new incomes that do not read it, so after the redraw they take the earnings route alone, until the SPI draw follows employment status (uk-data#529, microcosm#840). A net-new export column; its signed difference waits for María's signature. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…1095) The FRS 2024-25 question instructions put foster children under 16 in the carer's benefit unit, and nothing set policyengine-uk's is_looked_after_by_local_authority, so the engine counted them as the carer's own children in its child tests (Universal Credit, Child Tax Credit, Pension Credit, Tax-Free Childcare, extended childcare, the WTC childcare element and the legacy benefits). frs_relationships now sets the flag for a child-table member under 16 whose household-grid code toward an adult in their own benefit unit is foster child (5), or toward whom that adult records foster parent (9). The rule is declared in the stage (looked_after_child) and the spec schema. It follows the relationship code alone: few such children are recorded, and the carer's local-authority fostering allowance (ALLOW3) covers fewer still. A net-new export column; its signed difference waits for María's signature. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

CGT residential split read property_income > 0 as one of its two signs of residential property, so loss-making landlords lost the sign and its log-odds shift. The spine now carries an internal landlord flag, reports_rent_from_other_property (a positive ROYYR1, at a profit or a loss), which the CGT asset-type and residential-split stages read beside household residential property value and property income. The declared stock signal text says so. The flag is no engine input: the release boundary drops it, beside the other internal carriers. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The Universal Credit take-up population becomes benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age, the age half of policyengine-uk 2.122.2's is_uc_eligible. The draw, the SPI-channel redraw and the take-up signal gate share the helper; both stage manifests declare the role column and the code refuses one that does not. The contract's UC population text is re-signed with the rate unchanged. The engine lockstep test now compares the population with is_uc_eligible and names the two cases it does not mirror: reg 8 claimants aged 16-17 and mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

policyengine-uk replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more, but TOTCAPB4 holds no property, so no unit was assessed on its household's second homes, buy-to-let, buildings or land. The coherence stage now records each capital as the financial carrier plus the unit's share of the household's countable property, mirroring each engine proxy: UC shares other residential and non-residential property by claimants and partners; Pension Credit adds owned land and shares by members at or over its qualifying age. The -1 sentinel passes through. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for UC (María's ruling of 2026-10-10). DWP assessed its capital to pay it, and the property is imputed without that receipt and shared over every claimant or partner in the household. The reporter redraw screens SPI reporters on the carrier plus the share. The capital gate re-derives both capitals from the carrier, the declared shares and the reporter rule, and now checks Pension Credit capital. An engine lockstep test shows the shares equal the engine's proxies, recorded or mixed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ed units (#1095) DWP's take-up rates cover Great Britain, so each component band's residual is now solved there and drawn for every entitled non-reporter, Northern Ireland's included. A unit with no entitlement that does not report claims at the Savings Credit-only take-up (37%, new contract key pension_credit_newly_entitled), so a reform or a later year that entitles it pays it. Entitlement is read at the release's calibration year, as uk-data reads it, with the mixed-age saving still stored at the survey year. The stage gate requires Great Britain receipts, and the receipt records Pension Credit capital and deemed income by channel. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

policyengine-uk projects a loaded dataset's savings_interest_income by GDP per head (data/uprating_indices.yaml); the household-interest index its Variable.uprating attribute names only carries a situation input forward (uk-data#541). The SPI donor rebase and the 13 HMRC SPI savings-interest band targets now follow the projection: donors fall about 52%, the band targets 8.4%. Engine lockstep tests hold every indexed SPI component and every HMRC SPI amount family to the projection table. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

DWP reports PIP for England and Wales only since devolution, as obr.pip's binding records. The two daily-living caseload rows take obr.pip's country filter and household condition, and a dwp.pip. prefix pin selects K04000001, the geography Chronicle stamps DWP's January 2025 caseload with. Under the Great Britain default they matched no fact; they now resolve and add two calibration targets (1,233 active references). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OBR table 4.1 row 15 sums the England, Scotland and Wales council tax receipts; row 19, bound before, adds Northern Ireland domestic rates, the accruals adjustment and the high-value surcharge, which no household's council tax carries (GBP 1.34bn, 2.7%). The row now binds row 15 over Great Britain's households, pinned to the UK stamp Chronicle gives OBR's table through a new exact-id pin, since the substring rule would read Scotland in the concept. Its compile-parity row gets its own rationale, since the series and the period basis both differ from the incumbent's row 19. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

OBR's table 3.8 total is a cash figure against the accrued class rows, and it carries statutory-payment recoveries, Class 1A, 1B and 3 and settlements no household carries; at the calendar-2025 window it sits about 1.8% above the class rows. It leaves the fit as a diagnostic on obr.ni_employee with its exact FY2025-26 fact (María's ruling of 2026-10-09; uk-data#537 drops it). The contract holds 391 targets and 1,232 active references; obr/ni moves to the excluded incumbent rows. Its fixture-only compile-parity row carries the ruling, as obr.state_pension's did (microcosm#1069 R4). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The three HMRC Table 6.1 relief bands were held out since #1069 because their band test compared adjusted net income with after-allowance thresholds and ignored the Scottish bands. The measure resolver gains a declared rate-class allocation: one cached counterfactual returns the sacrifice to pay, and each person's relief is the rise in tax on earned taxable income, bracket by bracket, under their rest-of-UK or Scottish schedule from the simulation's own fiscal-year parameters (below 30% basic, the top rate additional, the rest higher), as uk-data#533 does. uk-data's worked examples reproduce exactly. The bands bind, the Table 6.2 total becomes a diagnostic on the higher-rate band, and the three exclusions retire. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

DWP publishes the UC monthly award bands in whole pence, each starting a penny above its predecessor's top. The four payment-distribution bindings opt in to band_semantics whole_pence_upper_closed: a band is (label lower - GBP 0.01, next label lower - GBP 0.01] x 12 compared in whole pence, so a penny-a-month award lands in the bottom band and GBP 100.01 a month no longer rounds into the band below. The reading is opt-in and refuses an unknown value; the other 28 banded bindings keep half-open bands. The GBP 2,500.01 or over band stays unbound (María's ruling of 2026-10-10), and band_upper_bound closes the last bound band at GBP 2,500.00 a month. Bound to DWP's counts, it left OBR's Universal Credit total 5.6% short on the measured head; unbound, the calibration holds 2.6 times DWP's count of lone parents in it. The generator counts the fan-out facts it skips instead of declaring 12 (the feed leaves eight). 1,231 active references. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

) Scoped to England and Wales, the two DWP caseload rows resolve, and a calibration fits both within 0.1%. But fitting them pushes the heaviest support family's weight from 1,061 to 1,241 times the positive median, over the uk_weight_ratio fence of 1,151, which holds at the June measurement. So the rows leave the fit (María's ruling of 2026-10-10): each is a diagnostic reference on obr.pip, pinned to its exact January 2025 fact, and the dwp.pip prefix pin goes with the targets. Diagnostic references now accept a fact dated by month. The contract holds 388 targets and 1,229 active references. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

On this head the calibration brings the West Midlands GBP 12,570-15,000 income-tax cell to +23.9%, back inside the 25% bound, and uk_target_fit fails the deferral as stale. The cell sat at +28.9% on main and +26.8% on this branch's first head; without the PIP caseload rows and the top UC band in the fit, and with UC reporters keeping their receipt, it comes inside. The target-fit register is empty again. The defect stands upstream (pe-uk#2174): the cell's design value is still 6.2 times its target, so a later change can push it back over the bound, and it would then need a new deferral. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The arms before and after María's rulings of 2026-10-10, the attribution of the first head's two gate failures, and the final head's calibration, gates and test runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

juaristi22 · 2026-10-11T07:51:26Z

Independent adversarial review (Claude Code) at `cf42d8a7a`

Static review only. I read the code, the committed registers and experiments/1095-uk-data-ports-3-receipts.md against main 7639ef8b0, and the installed policyengine-uk 2.122.2 source for engine semantics. I ran nothing. CI is green.

Verdict. Most of the ports are sound:

D1 and D2: the rules are as stated.
D2 direction: mixed-age couples are correctly inside the UC population.
Determinism: no new RNG streams.
D6: the flag is dropped at export.
T2: the rate-class arithmetic reproduces uk-data's examples by hand.
T1, T3, T4 and T6: they do what the body says.
Fixture: synthetic.

Three things should change before this leaves draft: D4 reads survey-year values against calibration-year rules, D3 adds gross property to recorded capital, and T5 changes the donor rebase in a way the targets can't absorb. One cross-PR collision with #1198 breaks the national compile whichever PR merges second.

Should fix

D4 reads 2024 values against 2025 rules.
- Where: pension_credit_take_up.py:232 calls engine.materialize(with_saving, requested, entitlement_year). with_saving is the survey-year frame (time_period=period), and the adapter builds UKSingleYearDataset(fiscal_year=int(period)) from the requested period (microcosm-frame/.../policyengine_uk.py:172).
- Effect: the frame's 2024 incomes, capital and State Pension are relabelled as 2025 inputs and never projected. On main, both the frame and the call were at the survey year.
- Example: a single pensioner on the full new State Pension and nothing else is read at about £221.20 a week against the 2025 guarantee of £221.85, so is entitled. On the released file at 2025 the pension is £230.25 and the unit is not.
- Consequences: the entitled set E is inflated. The residual rates, and the stage-gate receipt, describe a population the released file doesn't reproduce.
- Fix: materialize at the survey year with the engine computing period 2025, so policyengine-uk projects the frame forward. If that's what uk-data does, cite it.
D3 adds gross property, not countable capital. It does so by mirroring the engine proxy, but the engine treats a recorded figure as already countable.
- Gross value: UC_PROPERTY_CAPITAL_SOURCES sums other_residential_property_value and non_residential_property_value (Pension Credit adds owned_land) at market value (uc_capital_coherence.py:89-93).
  - UC Regs 2013 reg 49 and SPC Regs 2002 reg 19 value capital at market value less 10% for sale costs and less any debt secured on it.
  - A £120k buy-to-let with a £110k mortgage counts as about £0; this records £120k, so the unit fails the UC limit and Pension Credit deems tariff income on it.
  - was_wealth already draws other_mortgage, but only mortgage_debt reaches the frame.
- Owners: _household_property_share splits a household's property over every claimant and partner in it (UC), or every member at or over qualifying age (Pension Credit). So an adult child's unit takes a third of the parents' buy-to-let; tests/engine/uk/test_uk_uc_capital_coherence.py:136 asserts the £66,667/£33,333 split. UC counts only the claimants' own capital (reg 18); Pension Credit counts the claimant's and partner's (SPCA 2002 s.5).
- Size (receipts:108-112): £1,247bn of UC capital over 5.18m units. With the reporter rule, UC falls £0.80bn and 179k non-reporters lose UC.
- What the reporter rule tells us: about 157k weighted UC reporters would have crossed £16,000 on imputed property, although DWP assessed their capital and paid them. That is evidence the imputed figure overstates countable capital. The rule protects reporters, but the same overstatement still applies to non-reporters.
- Fix: net secured debt and the 10%, and assign property to its owning unit (the household reference person's unit, or WAS ownership where available) rather than pro rata.
T5's donor rebase drops a known surge that the targets already contain.
- Where: SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_INDEX_OVERRIDES (spi_income.py:93) rebases the 2022-23 SPI donors' savings interest to 2024 by GDP per head (×1.09) instead of household interest income (×2.27). The commit says donors fall about 52% and the band targets 8.4%.
- The problem: the engine-alignment argument (uk-data#541, uprating_indices.yaml) is about how policyengine-uk projects a dataset forward from its own year. The 2022 → 2024 donor rebase is history, and savings interest roughly doubled over it as rates rose. The 2023-24 SPI target base contains that rise; the rebased donors don't. So the solve has to make up about half of SPI savings interest through the weights, concentrated where savings sit.
- What it explains: T5 alone moves the £500k–1m employment band from −2.5% to −13.3%, which an 8.4% cut to savings targets can't do directly. The head still has top income cells at −11.5% and −15.2%.
- Fix: keep the household-interest index for the historical rebase to the base year and use GDP per head only for the projection beyond it. Or record why not.
- Index pairing: the amount rows also stay on a flat index while their count rows grow by band. The implied mean per saver falls 4–13% above £30k, against about 1.00 for employment under the UK spine follow-ups after #1045: SPI band donors as a mass-conserving support channel, WAS tenure coherence, the residential draw's bound and Table 7 composition, then a national build #1063 rule. Dividends and property (UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145) have the same pattern.
Cross-PR: One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198's holds register refuses this PR's T2 in either merge order.
- One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198's uk/uprating_holds.json:224 declares a hold on hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_total, which this PR turns into a diagnostic.
- One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198's compile refuses a declaration that matches no held row (uprating_holds.py:177, "stale"), in both the full and national loaders. The two PRs touch different files, so git merges them cleanly and only the compile fails.
- The "Overlaps" section mentions only UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145. One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198 also rescales the West Midlands cell W depends on (item 7).
The after-merge sequence needs the exclusion renewals first.
- dwp.uc.households_housing_element expires 2026-10-15, ons.savings_interest_income 2026-10-22, and the two slc.borrowers.plan_2_* entries 2026-11-03.
- apply_uk_calibration_measure_exclusions raises outside the window (measure_simulation.py:919-931), so any national build after 15 October fails until they're renewed.
- This PR's own measurement relied on both near-term entries. T5 moves the model further from the D.41 row that ons.savings_interest_income excludes, so that entry needs renewing, not dropping.
- Treat the renewal PR as a prerequisite, not a follow-up.

Minor

The measurement isn't of this tree, and the control is confounded.
- Not this tree: "this head" solved on a7e5bc56f plus Bound native evidence by bytes, not by the schema item budget #1188's commit, with the spine from 0324e9e84. The W pass is a gate replay after the commit that retires the deferral.
- Not in the repo: 0324e9e84, 341a02bd4, ae9795d7c, a42edaa9e and c7fe76e8a, and the scripts certifier_gates_check.py and uc_top_band_check.py.
- Confounded control: the control is UK: port the remaining uk-data fixes tracked in #1095, engine items included #1121's head-r3, before Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087's BRMA change merged. So every control-to-head delta also carries Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087's unmeasured effect: loss, council tax −9.8 → −7.0%, minimum income floor 1.84m → 1.63m, and West Midlands +28.9 → +23.9%. The absolute head figures stand, but the attribution doesn't.
W's 1.1-point margin across the open PRs.
- Retirement is required: the gate fails stale entries (terminal_gates.py:1029-1042).
- Under One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198: the band bridge itl_income_tax_12570_vs_spi_region_12570 scales this cell's target by ×1.057 (55.15m → 58.31m), which on these weights would put it near +17%.
- Under UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145: that PR deletes the same entry and measured the cell at +23.4% (and +26.8% on one arm). The combination is unmeasured.
- Root cause: the design value is still 6.2× its target. Banding the regional cells on total income including other investment income, as the old deferral reason suggests, would fix the cause instead of the register.
The signed-difference step is not enforced, and one committed signature is now false.
- Not enforced: spine_swap_signed_differences.json is read only by manual tools (verify_uk_spine_parity.py, compare_uk_h5_payload.py). The release cut already lists uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment and is_looked_after_by_local_authority as reviewed candidate-only fields.
- False signature: the uc-reported-capital-net-new-column entry (:525) says uc_reported_capital comes "from the same frs_benunit_capital carrier". After D3 it doesn't, and its only check (that the column exists) still passes.
- Question: why aren't D4 (would_claim_pc now drawn for 37% of non-entitled units) and T5 (SPI donor savings −52%) on the D1/D5/D3 signature list?
D3 reporter rule.
- The share doesn't stay put: a reporter records the carrier alone, but policyengine-uk's household residual sums only recorded figures. So a co-resident unit with the −1 sentinel absorbs the reporter's withheld share through the proxy, which contradicts "the other units of its household keep their own shares".
- Training screen: uc_reporter_redraw.py:280/381 applies carrier plus property to every training unit, including the reporters the stage protects, so real UC reporters drop out of the QRF training set.
D4's 37% draw has an Income Support side effect. policyengine-uk's income_support_eligible bars Income Support where meets_pension_credit_age_conditions & would_claim_pc, with no means test. So mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route who report Income Support and aren't entitled to Pension Credit now lose Income Support 37% of the time. The population is small, but it's undeclared.
D5's under-16 cutoff (frs_relationships.py:193, below_age: 16) can only drop flags. It misses 16–19-year-old foster children who are qualifying young persons in the carer's unit, who are still looked after (Children Act 1989 ss.22, 105; UC Regs reg 4(6)(a)). test_uk_frs_relationships.py:437 pins a 16-year-old as not looked after.
D6 on SPI rows: the landlord flag is written from the FRS twin (frs_spine.py:661), and no SPI refresh rewrites it. So SPI rows whose drawn property income is zero keep the twin's flag and turn on the residential CGT signal. That's the "donor status says nothing about drawn incomes" problem D1 rules against.
T2.
- Wrong comparison: the receipt compares the class sum with Δincome_tax, which differs legitimately through savings, dividends and HICBC. The engine variable the allocation re-implements is earned_income_tax, and comparing against that would catch schedule drift.
- Untested diagnostic: no test checks that the it_relief_total diagnostic resolves. _diagnostic_reference_metadata turns a mismatch into unavailable without failing.
- Question: does HMRC Table 6.1 classify relief bracket by bracket or by marginal rate? At design weights, basic reads 0.66×, higher 0.53× and additional 1.37×, which takes strong opposite reweighting to fit.
Stale text.
- tools/build_uk_ledger_compile_parity_signed_differences.py:76 still says the savings rows are "uprated by the household interest index", and that's regenerated into the 13 rows' signed reason, whose values moved ×0.916. docs/uk-income-anchors-280.md says the same.
- The changelog fragments carry intermediate counts (391/1,232, 390/1,231, "stays at 1,231") where the head is 388/1,229.
- The W fragment's "+28.9% on main" is pre-Weight UK BRMA assignment by census private-rented households #1087.
Nits.
- The D1 earnings route silently skips SPI rows if the column is missing (spi_income.py:2082), falling back to the engine default.
- The D2 lockstep test narrowed from ages 0–100 to 14–90 without saying why.
- T1 compares annual pence, not DWP's monthly pence (negligible).
- income_tax_rate_classes.py:65-71 files a schedule's top rate as "additional" even at 40%.
- The UC skipped-fact count changed from 12 to 8 on the same feed pin with no note.

Merge order with #1145, #1198 and #1167

Feeds: UK: port the #1095 fixes that need no new policyengine-uk release #1200 is on 825406f, Set UK road-fuel and energy levels in the LCFS stage on a calendar-2024 basis (#1113) #1167 on 1ee7dfe and One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198 on 942a1fa, all on one line. Whichever lands first, the others regenerate their references, membership, parity receipts and uk_data_target_parity on the new feed, and re-measure.
Regenerate, don't hand-merge: contract.py and its test pins, the coverage manifest, the H2 fixture, and the gates.json export-surface list (UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145's two property columns plus this PR's two).
UK landlords: bind the SPI net property amounts, leave property_wealth to the engine, add receipts and finance costs #1145: its _engine_scratch_frame change will also drop this PR's reports_rent_from_other_property from the calibration engine input. That's harmless, because no engine measure reads it.
One consistent UK target surface: enforced cross-grain reconciliation, declared uprating holds, nation household controls and the 942a1fa re-pin (#1123 PR A) #1198: remove it_relief_total from its hold (item 4). It also adds income_tax > 0 to the same hmrc.spi.savings_interest_income binding T5 re-indexes. That combination, with the −52% donors, has never been calibrated.
Set UK road-fuel and energy levels in the LCFS stage on a calendar-2024 basis (#1113) #1167: it excludes obr.vat, which removes this head's other near-bound cell (+22.7%), and its LCFS levels change the spine. So a combined calibration is needed.

Checked and fine:

Counts: 1,168 targets = 1,229 active − 61 exclusions.
Values: T3's £1.34bn (50.116 − 48.774), and T4's total at 1.0182× the class rows.
T5's ratios: 0.916 on all 13 rows.
T6: a month-dated fact reaches only diagnostics.
Exclusions: the three salary-sacrifice exclusions were genuinely redundant.
Mirrors: the coverage-manifest and gate digests move consistently.
Take-up contract: its rate is unchanged at 0.55.

Pension Credit take-up read calibration-year entitlement on survey-year values: the adapter stamped the frame with the entitlement year, so a 2024-25 State Pension sat against the 2025-26 guarantee. The UK adapter takes a dataset_period, the stage stamps the frame with its survey year, and policyengine-uk projects it forward as it does the released file and as uk-data#510 reads it. The reporter redraw screens an FRS unit that reports Universal Credit on its carrier alone, as uc_capital_coherence records it, so its imputed property no longer removes it from the training set. The reporter rule's text says what a co-resident unit on the -1 sentinel takes. A redrawn SPI row drops its FRS twin's landlord carrier: its property income is an SPI donor's, and the twin's flag turned the residential CGT signal on for rows with no drawn letting. The looked-after rule states why it stops at 16: the FRS makes an older foster child with a local authority allowance a separate benefit unit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

) The port of uk-data#541 moved both the SPI donor rebase (2022 to 2024) and the 13 band targets (2023-24 to 2025) to GDP per head, the index policyengine-uk's dataset projection applies. The engine projects from the dataset's year on. The years before it are history, and savings interest doubled over them as rates rose: ONS household interest income is x1.99 from 2022 to 2023, GDP per head x1.05. The rebased donors therefore fell about 52% while the targets, whose SPI 2023-24 base holds the rise, fell 8.4%, and the solve made up the difference through the weights of the top bands. The donor rebase returns to the index the variable names for its own history. The band targets take two legs: household interest income to the dataset's year, then GDP per head to the calibration year, a factor of 1.192 where main has 1.182. An engine lockstep test holds every SPI component's rebasing index and every HMRC SPI amount family's projection index to the engine's projection table, and names savings interest's history index apart. Compile-parity receipts follow in an amend. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

The salary-sacrifice allocation re-implements policyengine-uk's earned_income_tax by rate class. Its receipt compared the classes with the change in income_tax, which differs for good reasons (savings, dividends, HICBC), so a drifted schedule would not show. The measure now compares each person's classes with the change in earned_income_tax and refuses beyond GBP 1. A schedule with one rate above the basic class files it as higher, not additional. Tests hold the all-rates total as a diagnostic on the higher-rate band and, against the pinned feed, that it resolves its exact fact: a mismatch reads as unavailable and does not fail the compile. The UC take-up lockstep covers ages 0 to 100 again. The changelog fragments drop the intermediate target counts and say why the UC fan-out skips 8 facts where 12 were declared. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ts (#1095) The 13 SPI savings-interest band rows move with the two-leg index, and their signed reason says so. Regenerated against the pinned 825406f facts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

This reverts a7e5bc5. With the review's fixes the calibration puts the West Midlands GBP 12,570-15,000 income-tax cell at +26.9%, above the 25% bound, so María's signed deferral is needed and is not stale. The cell was inside the bound (+23.9%) only on the head that rebased the SPI savings donors by GDP per head, an error the review found. Across this PR's arms it has ranged from +23.9% to +29.7%; main, this branch's base, has it at +26.5%. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

What the adversarial review changed, the control on the branch's base, the head's calibration (six of seven gates; uk_weight_ratio at 1,155 where main is at 1,213 since #1087), the D3 owner and value figures left for María's ruling, and the test runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

juaristi22 and others added 16 commits October 10, 2026 23:52

Add the third ports PR's receipts (#1095)

cf42d8a

The arms before and after María's rulings of 2026-10-10, the attribution of the first head's two gate failures, and the final head's calibration, gates and test runs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

juaristi22 and others added 6 commits October 11, 2026 21:28

Navigation Menu

Repository navigation

UK: port the #1095 fixes that need no new policyengine-uk release - #1200

UK: port the #1095 fixes that need no new policyengine-uk release#1200
juaristi22 wants to merge 22 commits into
mainfrom
uk-data-ports-1095-3

juaristi22 commented Oct 11, 2026 •

edited

Loading

Uh oh!

juaristi22 commented Oct 11, 2026

Uh oh!

This branch has not been deployed

Reviewers

Assignees

Labels

Projects

Milestone

Development

Uh oh!

1 participant

Conversation

juaristi22 commented Oct 11, 2026 • edited Loading Uh oh! There was an error while loading. Please reload this page.

Uh oh!

Summary

Root columns (D1, D5, D6)

Take-up and capital (D2, D3, D4)

Targets (T1–T6)

What the measurement changed

Review round 1 (11 October)

Where this departs from the plan

Measurement

Testing

Overlaps and what follows

Uh oh!

juaristi22 commented Oct 11, 2026

Independent adversarial review (Claude Code) at cf42d8a7a

Should fix

Minor

Merge order with #1145, #1198 and #1167

Uh oh!

This branch has not been deployed

Reviewers

Assignees

Labels

Projects

Milestone

Development

Uh oh!

1 participant

juaristi22 commented Oct 11, 2026 •

edited

Loading

Independent adversarial review (Claude Code) at `cf42d8a7a`