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UK CGT stage: HMRC outturn level anchors + Advani-Summers shape, with accrued/realized/taxable name separation #364
uk-v2's cgt_impute.py anchors imputed capital gains to HMRC CGT outturn statistics; populace's declared roadmap for the UK CGT stage is the Advani-Summers distribution. These are complements, not rivals: A-S gives the within-distribution shape, HMRC outturn gives administratively-observed level anchors — exactly the two-part pattern Build H just proved for the US (SOI Table 1.4/2.1 level targets identifying imputed dimensions, #299).
Adopt HMRC CGT outturn (total gains, taxpayer counts, by-band where published) as ledgered calibration/referee targets — the UK mirror of the US SOI identification.
Use A-S for the imputation model's distributional shape; the review of policyengine-uk-v2#133 verified uk-v2's income-centile-ranking approach works and is a reasonable v1 implementation reference.
Closing as superseded by the implemented UK CGT approach and its more specific follow-ups. HMRC aggregate anchors and the CGT source stages are in place; the #552 adjudication adopted HMRC Table 3 for final conditional amounts, while Advani–Summers remains an incidence/prior/ranking input. The original final-shape proposal is therefore no longer the implementation plan.
Carry the remaining UK joint-distribution and related measurement/provenance checks into #725 when implementing the age/geography work. Keep reviewed promotion of the published bands as calibration targets under #467. The broader asset/accrual/realization architecture remains separately described in #320.
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juaristi22 commentedon Sep 10, 2026
Closing as superseded by the implemented UK CGT approach and its more specific follow-ups. HMRC aggregate anchors and the CGT source stages are in place; the #552 adjudication adopted HMRC Table 3 for final conditional amounts, while Advani–Summers remains an incidence/prior/ranking input. The original final-shape proposal is therefore no longer the implementation plan.
Carry the remaining UK joint-distribution and related measurement/provenance checks into #725 when implementing the age/geography work. Keep reviewed promotion of the published bands as calibration targets under #467. The broader asset/accrual/realization architecture remains separately described in #320.
Decision: #552 (comment)
Implemented source-stage port: #740.