Register gate_epuf_fill: learned career fills scored on held-out EPUF (awaiting ratification)

docs/amendments/gate_epuf_fill_dev_scores_after_amendment_1.json

@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+{
+ "schema": "populace_dynamics.epuf_fill_dev_scores_after_amendment.v1",
+ "registration_id": "2026-10-03-epuf-career-fill",
+ "purpose": "Every DEV score of a candidate or oracle-style fill produced after the amendment-1 rules commit 7061200d (06:04:18 UTC) and before the round-2 fixes, disclosed per referee round 2 finding 3. DEV only; no TEST person was read. Every event ran after 06:04 UTC: the scripts and fitted files carry modification times from 06:12 UTC on (quick_gaps.py was written at 06:18:42 UTC and first run after it). Scores were produced through the registered path epuf_fill_gate.score_candidate (union mask, validity checks). Events 1-6 passed no tolerances (gaps only); events 7-8 scored against the v2 tolerances. Gaps are filled minus true for correlations and log ratios otherwise, over two draw seeds (7100, 7101). Values are transcribed from the console output of each run.",
+ "fitting": "Every fill was fitted on TRAIN only (unit years 1991-2005).",
+ "events": [
+  {"order": 1, "approx_utc": "06:19", "candidate": "odd_forest v1 (Vincentized QRF)", "description": "random forest, split target log(share + 0.01), 12 trees, min leaf 150, 2,000,000 TRAIN units; leaves store p0, pcap and 33 quantiles of log share; quantile functions averaged over trees; AR(1) copula (fitted rho about -0.007)",
+   "pooled_a22_74_gaps": {"men": {"r1": -0.0074, "r2": -0.0248, "r3": -0.0174, "r4": -0.0305, "zint": 0.0011, "zexit": -0.0583, "wint": 0.0451, "atcap": -0.0152, "level": -0.0026},
+                          "women": {"r1": -0.0201, "r2": -0.0417, "r3": -0.0249, "r4": -0.0434, "zint": 0.1473, "zexit": -0.0195, "wint": 0.0879, "atcap": 0.0319, "level": 0.0018}}},
+  {"order": 2, "approx_utc": "06:28", "candidate": "odd_forest_rel (neighbour-relative leaves), with a draw bug", "description": "as event 1 with leaves holding quantiles of log(share / reference level); the draw omitted the reference level", "outcome": "bug: level gap +0.73 (men) and r1 -0.77; not a model result"},
+  {"order": 3, "approx_utc": "06:32", "candidate": "odd_forest_rel, bug fixed", "description": "event 2 with the reference level applied in the draw",
+   "pooled_a22_74_gaps": {"men": {"r1": -0.0125, "r2": -0.0328, "r3": -0.0207, "r4": -0.0328, "zint": -0.0867, "zexit": -0.0167, "wint": -0.1138, "atcap": -0.0115, "level": 0.0042, "q10": -0.0914, "q50": 0.0065, "q90": 0.0},
+                          "women": {"r1": -0.0193, "r2": -0.0410, "r3": -0.0250, "r4": -0.0411, "zint": 0.0387, "zexit": 0.0056, "wint": 0.0545, "atcap": 0.0631, "level": 0.0094, "q10": -0.0590, "q50": 0.0095, "q90": 0.0174}}},
+  {"order": 4, "approx_utc": "06:35", "candidate": "O1-from-TRAIN (diagnostic, oracle-style fill)", "description": "a TRAIN true value drawn at random from the same O1 stratum (sex, odd-universe membership, five-year age band, bins of t-1 and t+1); used to check the scoring path",
+   "gaps": {"odd.men.a22_74": {"atcap": 0.0010, "level": 0.0001, "r1": -0.0017, "r2": -0.0206, "r3": -0.0170, "r4": -0.0349, "wint": 0.0365, "zexit": -0.0054, "zint": 0.0511},
+            "odd.men.a30_44": {"atcap": -0.0004, "level": 0.0011, "r1": -0.0014, "r2": -0.0215, "r3": -0.0186, "r4": -0.0375, "wint": 0.0036, "zexit": -0.0112, "zint": 0.0074},
+            "odd.women.a22_74": {"atcap": 0.0040, "level": -0.0014, "r1": -0.0023, "r2": -0.0149, "r3": -0.0152, "r4": -0.0303, "wint": 0.0178, "zexit": -0.0011, "zint": 0.0740},
+            "odd.women.a30_44": {"atcap": 0.0075, "level": 0.0003, "r1": -0.0014, "r2": -0.0177, "r3": -0.0170, "r4": -0.0339, "wint": 0.0392, "zexit": 0.0057, "zint": 0.0134}}},
+  {"order": 5, "approx_utc": "06:38", "candidate": "odd_qrf v1 (Meinshausen QRF draw)", "description": "random forest as event 1 but 8 trees, min leaf 25, 600,000 units; leaves keep the true shares of the TRAIN units in them; a draw picks a tree and takes the leaf value at the copula uniform",
+   "gaps": {"odd.men.a22_74": {"atcap": -0.0113, "level": 0.0003, "q10": -0.0316, "q50": -0.0036, "q90": 0.0, "r1": -0.0008, "r2": -0.0101, "r3": -0.0099, "r4": -0.0167, "wint": 0.1388, "zexit": -0.0497, "zint": 0.0524},
+            "odd.men.a30_44": {"atcap": -0.0268, "level": -0.0018, "q10": -0.0883, "q50": -0.0073, "q90": 0.0, "r1": 0.0009, "r2": -0.0099, "r3": -0.0089, "r4": -0.0204, "wint": 0.0853, "zexit": -0.0721, "zint": -0.1524},
+            "odd.women.a22_74": {"atcap": 0.0261, "level": 0.0042, "q10": -0.0037, "q50": 0.0056, "q90": 0.0052, "r1": -0.0094, "r2": -0.0186, "r3": -0.0137, "r4": -0.0229, "wint": 0.1673, "zexit": -0.0169, "zint": 0.1631},
+            "odd.women.a30_44": {"atcap": -0.0019, "level": 0.0021, "q10": -0.0246, "q50": -0.0019, "q90": 0.0004, "r1": -0.0069, "r2": -0.0212, "r3": -0.0125, "r4": -0.0289, "wint": 0.1836, "zexit": -0.0264, "zint": 0.0855}}},
+  {"order": 6, "approx_utc": "06:45", "candidate": "odd_qrf_b", "description": "event 5 with 2,000,000 units, 10 trees, min leaf 20, max features 0.8",
+   "gaps": {"odd.men.a22_74": {"atcap": -0.0057, "q10": -0.0349, "r1": 0.0014, "r2": -0.0062, "r3": -0.0070, "r4": -0.0120, "wint": 0.0397, "zexit": -0.0420, "zint": -0.0117},
+            "odd.women.a22_74": {"atcap": 0.0240, "q10": 0.0011, "r1": -0.0076, "r2": -0.0143, "r3": -0.0112, "r4": -0.0177, "wint": 0.0379, "zexit": -0.0075, "zint": 0.1294}}},
+  {"order": 7, "approx_utc": "06:54", "candidate": "odd_qrf_sex (one forest per sex)", "description": "event 6's forest fitted separately for men and women, 1,500,000 units each", "n_failing": 39, "n_gating": 183,
+   "failing_cells_gap_tolerance": [["odd.men.a22_74.r2", -0.0132, 0.0046], ["odd.men.a60_74.zint", 0.5070, 0.1776], ["odd.men.a22_74.r4", -0.0170, 0.0070], ["odd.men.a30_44.r4", -0.0203, 0.0092], ["odd.men.a22_74.r3", -0.0100, 0.0047], ["odd.men.a30_44.r2", -0.0131, 0.0065], ["odd.men.a60_74.r2", -0.0403, 0.0208], ["odd.women.a22_29.r2", 0.0243, 0.0131], ["odd.women.a60_74.r2", -0.0411, 0.0222], ["odd.men.a22_74.wint", 0.1358, 0.0734], ["odd.women.a30_44.r4", -0.0184, 0.0102], ["odd.men.a45_59.r2", -0.0126, 0.0074], ["odd.women.a22_74.r4", -0.0130, 0.0077], ["odd.women.a22_74.r3", -0.0087, 0.0052], ["odd.women.a45_59.r2", -0.0123, 0.0074], ["odd.men.a22_29.r3", -0.0202, 0.0133], ["odd.men.a30_44.r3", -0.0091, 0.0061], ["odd.men.a22_74.zint", 0.0789, 0.0548], ["odd.men.a22_29.r1", -0.0105, 0.0073], ["odd.women.a60_74.r1", -0.0139, 0.0098], ["odd.women.a60_74.r4", -0.0519, 0.0363], ["odd.women.a45_59.r4", -0.0177, 0.0125], ["odd.men.a22_74.zexit", -0.0254, 0.0192], ["odd.women.a30_44.r2", -0.0093, 0.0071], ["odd.women.a22_74.r2", -0.0060, 0.0048], ["odd.men.a60_74.r1", -0.0122, 0.0098], ["odd.men.a45_59.zexit", -0.0441, 0.0363], ["odd.men.a30_44.zexit", -0.0388, 0.0320], ["odd.men.a60_74.r4", -0.0449, 0.0382], ["odd.men.a45_59.wint", 0.1515, 0.1334], ["odd.women.a60_74.r3", -0.0205, 0.0185], ["odd.men.a45_59.r4", -0.0134, 0.0121], ["odd.men.a45_59.zint", 0.1019, 0.0929], ["odd.women.a22_29.q50", 0.0238, 0.0218], ["odd.men.a30_44.wint", 0.1301, 0.1200], ["odd.men.a45_59.r3", -0.0073, 0.0072], ["odd.women.b1966_1980.paime_p25", -0.0337, 0.0332], ["odd.women.a22_74.zexit", -0.0163, 0.0160], ["odd.men.a22_74.r1", -0.0026, 0.0026]]},
+  {"order": 8, "approx_utc": "07:05", "candidate": "odd_qrf_sex2 (one forest per sex, level features)", "description": "event 7 with 3,000,000 units per sex, min leaf 15, and features adding the mean, geometric mean and number positive of the shares at t-3, t-1, t+1, t+3", "n_failing": 24, "n_gating": 183,
+   "failing_cells_gap_tolerance": [["odd.women.a22_29.r2", 0.0281, 0.0131], ["odd.men.a60_74.zint", 0.3148, 0.1776], ["odd.men.a22_74.r2", -0.0074, 0.0046], ["odd.men.a22_29.r1", -0.0103, 0.0073], ["odd.women.a60_74.r2", -0.0311, 0.0222], ["odd.women.a30_44.r4", -0.0142, 0.0102], ["odd.men.a30_44.r4", -0.0121, 0.0092], ["odd.men.a60_74.r2", -0.0259, 0.0208], ["odd.men.a30_44.r2", -0.0080, 0.0065], ["odd.men.a22_74.zexit", -0.0228, 0.0192], ["odd.men.a22_74.r4", -0.0083, 0.0070], ["odd.women.a22_29.q50", 0.0254, 0.0218], ["odd.women.a45_59.r2", -0.0084, 0.0074], ["odd.men.a30_44.zexit", -0.0360, 0.0320], ["odd.women.a22_29.level", 0.0203, 0.0185], ["odd.women.a60_74.r1", -0.0107, 0.0098], ["odd.men.a45_59.r2", -0.0081, 0.0074], ["odd.men.a30_44.zint", -0.0968, 0.0899], ["odd.men.a22_29.r3", -0.0137, 0.0133], ["odd.men.a22_29.q50", 0.0237, 0.0230], ["odd.men.a45_59.zexit", -0.0374, 0.0363], ["odd.women.b1966_1980.paime_p25", -0.0337, 0.0332], ["odd.women.a30_44.r2", -0.0071, 0.0071], ["odd.women.a22_29.r4", 0.0200, 0.0198]]}
+ ],
+ "pre_family": "No pre-career candidate was scored after 7061200d."
+}

docs/amendments/gate_epuf_fill_dev_scores_after_round_2.jsonl

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+{"utc": "2026-10-04T07:22:15+00:00", "candidate": "pre_donor", "family": "pre", "artifact_sha256": "74aa1601dcd4230b1daddfa3998d0299a92af7c174912404e8293bd476e17337", "code_sha256": "09ffcfa06ee064d14e3403cb3101b05a20fee1aaec7c7b97abb77567d1cc4cc5", "seeds": [7100, 7101, 7102, 7103], "n_failing": 4, "n_gating": 136, "tier": "improves", "worst": [["pre.women.b1930_1945.aime_p10", 0.33330266185993374, 0.16621909484652816], ["pre.women.b1940_1945.pzero", -0.055262963678008536, 0.04701699812231318], ["pre.women.b1940_1945.aime_p10", 0.29046229495810305, 0.26939110963753704], ["pre.women.b1935_1939.aime_p10", 0.36695525334628876, 0.3512121935176347], ["pre.women.b1946_1980.yr_cross", 0.015630127488157397, 0.015684351176846988], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.ylevel", -0.01508791014685329, 0.01520534060461241], ["pre.women.b1956_1965.yr_cross", 0.02934637723770933, 0.03047360671843986], ["pre.men.b1940_1945.pr_in", 0.05951680046203045, 0.06500235072966114], ["pre.women.b1946_1980.paime_p10", 0.04740223889458406, 0.05217708504283977], ["pre.men.b1956_1965.ylevel", -0.02466055259076949, 0.027201666962537053], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.yr_cross", 0.012922680711020706, 0.014632893176957621], ["pre.women.b1930_1934.aime_p10", 0.33702794655493395, 0.3914251373153828]]}
+{"utc": "2026-10-04T07:30:46+00:00", "candidate": "pre_donor2", "family": "pre", "artifact_sha256": "eb954ac3a9ceb25e1d559ac555e6ec2527b310f951dd7cfdf3b34edc322d3165", "code_sha256": "ff279cd69d1b94ec1447d9d14db0d893546142cd34b54fa8b23e22b3e76a0584", "seeds": [7100, 7101, 7102, 7103], "n_failing": 6, "n_gating": 136, "tier": "improves", "worst": [["pre.women.b1946_1980.yr_cross", 0.03024586359102016, 0.015684351176846988], ["pre.women.b1956_1965.yr_cross", 0.0550962861890853, 0.03047360671843986], ["pre.women.b1946_1980.yzero", 0.011763944031377704, 0.008556191699814752], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.yr_cross", 0.016499643760206573, 0.014632893176957621], ["pre.women.b1946_1955.yr_cross", 0.04061298355664006, 0.03669253843323441], ["pre.women.b1966_1980.yr_cross", 0.022903326696107174, 0.02158530789673962], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.yzero", 0.011116994769767019, 0.011384493587046594], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.ylevel", -0.013914974175574635, 0.01520534060461241], ["pre.women.b1966_1980.yzero", 0.012869325136944165, 0.014833297517636257], ["pre.men.b1956_1965.ylevel", -0.022079629566834402, 0.027201666962537053]]}
+{"utc": "2026-10-04T07:31:20+00:00", "candidate": "pre_chain2", "family": "pre", "artifact_sha256": "37c2d72e6a7700cf7ac9dfe705434152f71e708ed92adf0fbad78611328b5761", "code_sha256": "ff279cd69d1b94ec1447d9d14db0d893546142cd34b54fa8b23e22b3e76a0584", "seeds": [7100, 7101, 7102, 7103], "n_failing": 55, "n_gating": 136, "tier": "not_adopted", "worst": [["pre.women.b1966_1980.ylevel", 0.45917079627409274, 0.017769920520911725], ["pre.men.b1966_1980.ylevel", 0.4811824306056769, 0.021382204828984532], ["pre.women.b1966_1980.yzero", 0.2583487735491933, 0.014833297517636257], ["pre.women.b1946_1980.yzero", 0.1489263401252473, 0.008556191699814752], ["pre.women.b1946_1980.ylevel", 0.20714311009839204, 0.015450091379218515], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.yzero", 0.15148656243554004, 0.011384493587046594], ["pre.men.b1966_1980.yzero", 0.19620307014155636, 0.01675184764087755], ["pre.men.b1946_1980.ylevel", 0.1430531564860713, 0.01520534060461241], ["pre.women.b1956_1965.yzero", 0.15643826543566397, 0.017102901274216892], ["pre.men.b1956_1965.yzero", 0.16956100424184672, 0.022693736955041323]]}
+{"utc": "2026-10-04T07:42:02+00:00", "candidate": "odd_qrf_sex2", "family": "odd", "artifact_sha256": "be03f0f3c702e391008fb72eec16d799385be93fbd5de01ce78a79e1fe45330b", "code_sha256": "9b2c5dd94d3d51e5f53994b7aa707ce7955b99eeb1e6e8bc481e753d1260761a", "seeds": [7100, 7101, 7102, 7103], "n_failing": 23, "n_gating": 183, "tier": "not_adopted", "worst": [["odd.women.a22_29.r2", 0.02714856253605591, 0.013111971249341917], ["odd.men.a60_74.zint", 0.33247368988113246, 0.17758159695027936], ["odd.women.a60_74.r2", -0.03422723027556407, 0.022174026993056747], ["odd.men.a22_74.r2", -0.007062508310260118, 0.004576681103770273], ["odd.men.a22_29.r1", -0.010609081809470733, 0.007273490161268873], ["odd.women.a30_44.r4", -0.014271254170137415, 0.010187042430903364], ["odd.men.a30_44.zexit", -0.04086629032766431, 0.031953074094816486], ["odd.men.a60_74.r2", -0.02629022691682592, 0.020757725353477027], ["odd.men.a30_44.r4", -0.011478929773406477, 0.009218001294372115], ["odd.women.a45_59.r2", -0.009149018075044535, 0.0074184353060767995], ["odd.men.a22_74.zexit", -0.022985129792897574, 0.01916127382099423], ["odd.women.a60_74.r1", -0.011531037538756617, 0.009751654703991025], ["odd.men.a30_44.r2", -0.0075100613637079094, 0.006500650570758907], ["odd.women.a22_29.level", 0.020540551604554036, 0.018517427407013797], ["odd.men.a22_74.r4", -0.007762715111083396, 0.007000982741779954], ["odd.women.a60_74.r4", -0.03868148727219123, 0.036314307016843086], ["odd.women.a22_29.q50", 0.0232742152048111, 0.021849929026002995], ["odd.men.a45_59.r2", -0.007692352520425327, 0.0074262368998509335], ["odd.women.a45_59.r4", -0.012890705852779516, 0.012512985825002505], ["odd.women.a22_74.r4", -0.007885437242168614, 0.007666262733486471], ["odd.men.a22_29.r3", -0.01343644400734656, 0.013280307041936976], ["odd.men.a22_29.q50", 0.023239013149086052, 0.022980444394274636], ["odd.women.a30_44.r2", -0.007087772863819786, 0.007078708407960211], ["odd.men.a30_44.q10", -0.04751745643811356, 0.047669064141889934], ["odd.women.a22_74.r3", -0.005150669696892374, 0.005171487109756781], ["odd.men.a30_44.zint", -0.08884255086813031, 0.08989768311292742], ["odd.women.a22_29.r4", 0.01925238657360928, 0.01982762523559322], ["odd.men.a60_74.r1", -0.009265651157384092, 0.009750532797445479], ["odd.men.a22_29.level", 0.020253468381523643, 0.02171146931539837], ["odd.men.a22_74.r3", -0.004148209781093093, 0.004722018684826323]]}
+{"utc": "2026-10-04T07:44Z (approximate)", "candidate": "pre_chain3 (diagnostic check, not scored against tolerances)", "family": "pre", "description": "the chained alternative refitted with single-year ages 15-24 and unit years 1951-2005; DEV persons born 1966-1980 (men, 30,000) filled with seed 7100 and compared with the truth by age", "printed": {"15": {"truth_mean": 0.0028, "truth_zero": 0.857, "fill_mean": 0.0081, "fill_zero": 0.863}, "16": {"truth_mean": 0.0094, "truth_zero": 0.661, "fill_mean": 0.0189, "fill_zero": 0.677}, "17": {"truth_mean": 0.0222, "truth_zero": 0.488, "fill_mean": 0.0406, "fill_zero": 0.508}, "18": {"truth_mean": 0.0409, "truth_zero": 0.369, "fill_mean": 0.0737, "fill_zero": 0.387}, "19": {"truth_mean": 0.0697, "truth_zero": 0.304, "fill_mean": 0.1113, "fill_zero": 0.331}, "20": {"truth_mean": 0.0934, "truth_zero": 0.287, "fill_mean": 0.1285, "fill_zero": 0.311}, "21": {"truth_mean": 0.1116, "truth_zero": 0.276, "fill_mean": 0.134, "fill_zero": 0.294}}, "earlier_check": "the same comparison with pre_chain2 (five-year age bands) printed fill means 0.0236-0.1416 against truth 0.0028-0.1116 at ages 15-21", "code_sha256": "9b2c5dd94d3d51e5f53994b7aa707ce7955b99eeb1e6e8bc481e753d1260761a"}