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UK facts for the next microcosm policyengine-uk bump: Northern Ireland's whole domestic rates bill, Wales's local bus fare receipts and concessionary journeys, and the Childcare Offer for Wales take-up #395
Description
Summary
PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095 tracks the UK model fixes. Three rows of the next policyengine-uk bump wait
for facts the feed does not carry:
- Northern Ireland's domestic rates bill, the regional and the district rate together, net of reliefs.
- Wales's local bus passenger fare receipts and its concessionary journeys, for a fare yield.
- The share of eligible children who take up the Childcare Offer for Wales.
Chronicle owns the preserved files, the source cells and the emitted facts. Microcosm keeps the
decisions about how each fact is bound.
1. Northern Ireland domestic rates: the whole bill, net of reliefs
Why. Microcosm holds obr.domestic_rates (OBR EFO March 2026, table 4.1) as a measured
diagnostic. The OBR line looks like the district rate only, the councils' own revenue, while each
household's domestic_rates in policyengine-uk is its whole bill, the regional and the district rate
together. Binding the row would pull Northern Ireland's weights toward the district share. A total on
the household's basis would let the row bind.
PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2663 (policyengine-uk 2.162.16) records that the OBR shows Northern Ireland
domestic rates in two places, and labels neither as regional or district:
- Expenditure Table 4.1 row 16, inside net council tax receipts: £0.494bn, which appears to be the
district rate. - Receipts Table 3.2 row 6, under "Other taxes": £485.3m in 2024-25, which appears to cover the
regional rate.
Neither line is the whole bill, and together they come to more than the £889.5m LPS reports as
paid in 2024-25. Microcosm's domestic_rates comes from the FRS's derived rates liability, which is
the household's whole bill, so a whole-bill total is the fact the row needs.
Source
- Land & Property Services (Department of Finance): https://www.finance-ni.gov.uk/land-property-services-lps
- LPS's Rate Levy Accruals Account, laid before the Northern Ireland Assembly each year, is the
nearest official source we found; we found no statistical table that splits domestic from
non-domestic rates.
Requested
- Domestic rates levied for 2024-25 (and 2025-26 when published): the regional and the district rate
together, net of reliefs (rate rebates, the lone pensioner allowance, the disabled persons'
allowance and any other domestic relief the account nets), with the reliefs as separate facts where
the source gives them. - If no source separates domestic from non-domestic, say so on the issue: Microcosm keeps the row
held.
2. Wales: local bus passenger fare receipts and concessionary journeys
Why. Microcosm prices bus fares at a published yield per fare-paying boarding: passenger fare
receipts over passenger journeys less concessionary journeys. England's areas take BUS05ai's
receipts; Scotland and Northern Ireland take their own. Wales has no published receipts in the feed,
so Welsh households keep the diary draw unpriced. BUS04's country rows (#356) give revenue per
passenger journey, which includes concessionary reimbursement and support, so they cannot stand for
fares paid.
Source
- DfT BUS04, costs, fares and revenue: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/bus04-costs-fares-and-revenue
- Welsh Government, Public service vehicles (buses and taxis), April 2024 to March 2025:
https://www.gov.wales/public-service-vehicles-buses-and-taxis-april-2024-march-2025-html
(journeys and vehicle kilometres; its quality notes say the operator survey collects passenger
receipts, which the release does not present).
Requested
- Wales's local bus passenger fare receipts for FYE 2025: fares paid by passengers, without
concessionary reimbursement or other support, from whichever DfT or Welsh Government table
publishes them. - Wales's concessionary journeys for the same year, so the fare-paying journeys follow.
- If neither is published, say so on the issue: Wales stays unpriced.
3. The Childcare Offer for Wales: take-up among eligible children
Why. policyengine-uk 2.155.0 models the Childcare Offer for Wales and asks whether each eligible
family takes it up (would_claim_wales_childcare_offer). Microcosm leaves the input at its default
(every eligible family claims) until a published take-up rate is a fact, then draws it at that rate.
Source
- Welsh Government, Report of the Childcare Offer for Wales, September 2023 to August 2024:
https://www.gov.wales/report-childcare-offer-wales-september-2023-august-2024
Requested
- The report's estimate of the share of eligible children who accessed the Offer, with its numerator
(children who accessed it) and its denominator (eligible children under the current rules) as
separate facts, and the period each covers. - The same facts from later reports as each is published.
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Activity
juaristi22 commentedon Oct 29, 2026
4. OBR's vehicle excise duty receipts (added 29 October)
#393 (the October 2026 EFO packages) is expected to close soon, so this ask is filed here.
Why. For PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095 (PR 2b), Microcosm will give every household car the inputs policyengine-uk's vehicle excise duty (VED) reads: fuel type, engine size, CO2 band and first registration. It will then measure the engine's VED as a diagnostic. No Chronicle package carries a VED receipts line, so there is nothing to compare it with.
Requested
obr/efo_receipts_october_2026, if OBR October 2026 EFO: archive the receipts and expenditure detailed forecast tables as a new vintage (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095) #393 does not already emit it;obr/efo_receipts_march_2026too. The October tables start at 2025-26, so the calendar-2025 window needs March's 2024-25 outturn, as OBR October 2026 EFO: archive the receipts and expenditure detailed forecast tables as a new vintage (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095) #393 explains for its other lines.🤖 Generated with Claude Code
juaristi22 commentedon Oct 29, 2026
4. Bottled gas's share of household spending on gas (COICOP 04.5.2)
Why.
liquid_fuel_consumption(LCFS code c45222), not in its mains-gas column.ons.household_gas_expenditureout of the calibration objective. UK: every open data item: uk-data parity, engine locks, the local surface, consumption and high-value homes microcosm#1095 tracks it.Source. ONS consumer price inflation (dataset MM23):
Requested
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Keep gas on Energy Trends and hold ONS 04.5.2 out; check the QEP method
juaristi22 commentedon Oct 30, 2026
#396 carries this issue's asks. What isn't published:
The VED split by payer is published (ONS CDDZ and EKED) and is in the PR. So are the OBR's VED line under one concept (March for its 2024-25 outturn, October from 2025-26), and the CPI gas weights and indices.
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