OBR October 2026 EFO: archive the receipts and expenditure detailed forecast tables as a new vintage (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1095) #393

Summary

• The OBR published the October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook with the Budget on 28 October 2026 (EFO page). It revises 2025, gives 2025-26 as outturn and adds 2031-32.
• policyengine-uk is moving its economic assumptions to this EFO in Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO policyengine-uk#2717 (for Update the OBR forecasts to the October 2026 Economic and fiscal outlook policyengine-uk#2711).
• Microcosm's OBR targets read the March 2026 vintage, obr/efo_receipts_march_2026 and obr/efo_expenditure_march_2026. Once the engine moves to October, the targets and the engine's projection would rest on different forecasts (UK: every open data item: uk-data parity, engine locks, the local surface, consumption and high-value homes microcosm#1095).
• Chronicle owns the artifacts, the source cells and the emitted facts. Microcosm decides which rows bind and when to re-pin.
• Widened on 29 October to every relevant October publication. The whole receipts workbook is in scope, including Table 4.5's savings income. Economy and aggregates are now required, and the policy workbook, Annex A and the devolved forecasts are added.

Requested

Make one package per publication below. Where a March 2026 package exists, keep its record sets and source concepts, so that a consumer changes vintage by package alone, and keep the March 2026 packages addressable. #381 asked for the same re-archive of its excise lines.

1. Receipts (obr/efo_receipts_october_2026): https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts/ (xlsx, about 209 KB). Parse the whole workbook, not only the rows the March package parses. Two parts have new consumers:
   • Table 4.5, "Savings income", the OBR savings path Max cites on PolicyEngine/microcosm#1418. Microcosm will grow its SPI Table 3.7 interest rows by it.
   • The gambling duty lines, Machine Games Duty among them, so that the engine's gambling inputs can follow the OBR's receipts forecasts (Charge higher-stake machines at the Machine Games Duty higher rate from April 2027 policyengine-uk#2731).
2. Expenditure (obr/efo_expenditure_october_2026): https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-expenditure/ (xlsx, about 274 KB). Parse everything the March package parses: council tax receipts and their parts, Northern Ireland domestic rates, and the welfare lines.
3. Economy (obr/efo_economy_october_2026), now required: https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-economy/. It carries the deposit rate and the household financial assets that Project savings interest by interest received per person policyengine-uk#2638's interest projection reads, besides household income, earnings, prices and population.
4. Aggregates (obr/efo_aggregates_october_2026), now required, so that the vintage is complete: https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-aggregates/
5. Policy (obr/efo_policy_october_2026, new): https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-policy/. The OBR's costings of the October measures by year, beside the Treasury's Table 6.1 that UK: data fixes for the Budget 2026 household measures microcosm#1418 checks each Budget measure against.
6. Annex A charts and tables: https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-charts-and-tables-annex-a/. Check it against the policy workbook, and archive any measure rows the workbook lacks.
7. Devolved tax and spending forecasts, charts and tables (optional: Microcosm reads none of its rows today): https://obr.uk/download/october-2026-devolved-tax-and-spending-forecasts-charts-and-tables/

Out of scope: the debt interest ready reckoner, the report PDF, the other chapters' charts and tables, and the presentations.

At minimum, the October packages must emit the 33 source concepts that Microcosm's targets select today, and Table 4.5's savings income:

• Expenditure (19): obr.council_tax_receipts_england_scotland_wales, obr.council_tax_england, obr.council_tax_scotland, obr.council_tax_wales, obr.domestic_rates, obr.attendance_allowance, obr.carers_allowance, obr.child_benefit, obr.dla_and_pip, obr.housing_benefit, obr.incapacity_benefits, obr.jobseekers_allowance, obr.pension_credit, obr.state_pension, obr.statutory_maternity_pay, obr.tv_licence_fee, obr.universal_credit_in_cap, obr.universal_credit_outside_cap and obr.winter_fuel_payment.
• Receipts (14): obr.income_tax, obr.ni_employee, obr.ni_employer, obr.ni_self_employed, obr.ni_total, obr.capital_gains_tax, obr.vat, obr.fuel_duties, obr.sdlt, obr.beer_and_cider_duties, obr.wine_duties, obr.spirits_duties, obr.tobacco_duties and obr.betting_and_gaming_duties.

Semantics to carry

• The vintage: the release date, 28 October 2026, and an outturn or forecast flag for each column. 2025-26 is outturn in October; in March it was a forecast. 2031-32 is a new forecast year.
• Table numbers: Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO policyengine-uk#2717 cites October's receipts as Tables 4.2, 4.7 and 4.8 and its council tax as Expenditure Table 5.1. The March packages parse receipts sheets 3.x and expenditure sheets 4.x. So the chapter numbers appear to have moved by one. Match the rows by their labels, and record each fact's October table and row.
• Northern Ireland domestic rates: the OBR shows them in two places. In March they were Expenditure Table 4.1 row 16, inside net council tax receipts, and Receipts Table 3.2 row 6, under "Other taxes" (Give both OBR placements of Northern Ireland domestic rates in the fiscal partition policyengine-uk#2663). Carry both as published, each with its own table and row. The OBR calls neither one regional or district.
• Units and bases: as each table states them (£ billion; cash or accrued).
• Changed rows: in the package notes, list any row that October drops, renames or splits against March.
• Table 4.5: carry each fiscal year as published, whether the table gives growth or levels. Microcosm takes it from SPI 2023-24 to the calendar-2025 window, so it needs 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Consumer

• Microcosm's OBR targets, whether bound or held as diagnostics, at the calendar-2025 window of the fiscal years: three twelfths of 2024-25 and nine twelfths of 2025-26. With 2025-26 as outturn, nine of the window's twelve months rest on outturn.
• When to re-pin is Microcosm's call. It will pair the October facts with the engine lock that carries Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO policyengine-uk#2717 (UK: every open data item: uk-data parity, engine locks, the local surface, consumption and high-value homes microcosm#1095, "The next policyengine-uk lock").
• PR C of UK: data fixes for the Budget 2026 household measures microcosm#1418 (Budget 2026 slower data fixes, PR C of #1418: electricity at the ONS level, pension income by area microcosm#1420) waits for Table 4.5 on the same re-pin as Add SPI 2023-24 Table 3.10 and the OBR October 2026 EFO vintage (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1418) #394 (SPI Table 3.10). It will then do two things (María's ruling of 29 October):
  • grow the SPI Table 3.7 interest rows by the OBR's savings income, in place of ×1.192;
  • bind Table 3.7's other income by band.
• The engine's interest projection (Project savings interest by interest received per person policyengine-uk#2638) should be settled at the same time, since the targets' path and the engine's should match.

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