UK pension facts for the 2025 calibration: DWP State Pension and Pension Credit caseloads from Stat-Xplore (UK residents), Northern Ireland pensions, workplace pension contributions, and the unported pension rows of files Chronicle already archives #302

Summary

The Microcosm UK national candidate's State Pension total is 9.6% below target, and its State Pension sits too high up the income distribution. Chronicle already carries the aggregate pension lines: DWP Spring 2026 caseload and expenditure by pension type, including the "paid outside UK" rows; Pension Credit by type; ONS single-year ages; and SPI Tables 3.6 and 3.8. Binding those is Microcosm's work, in a separate issue.

What Chronicle does not carry is the resident caseload's shape: age, sex, pension type, region and average amount for people living in the UK. It also lacks Northern Ireland, and any contribution totals. This issue asks for:

1. DWP Stat-Xplore "State Pension caseload", Great Britain residents only, by age, sex, category of pension and region, with caseload and average weekly amount.
2. DWP Stat-Xplore "Pension Credit caseload", by type, partner indicator, age and region.
3. Northern Ireland State Pension and Pension Credit, from the DfC/NISRA benefits statistics summary.
4. Workplace pension contribution totals and participation, from DWP's savings-trends release, plus ONS ASHE contribution-rate bands.
5. Salary-sacrifice amounts above the £2,000 cap, from the OBR's supplementary costing.
6. Winter Fuel Payment 2025-26 caseload, and HMRC's count of recipients with income over £35,000.
7. The unported pension rows of three raw files Chronicle already archives (listed below).

Why now

On the latest main-based calibration (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1045 head, 80f3a6029), the State Pension headline is the one that fails:

• State Pension total: £130.3bn against the OBR line of £144.1bn (−9.6%). This has drifted down across builds, from −8.0% to −9.0% to −9.6%.
  • The OBR line (FY2025-26 £146.19bn) matches DWP's GB-plus-overseas total (£146.07bn), which includes £5.63bn paid to 1.088m people abroad.
  • A household survey cannot carry pensions paid abroad. Northern Ireland pensioners are in the survey, but in no GB table.
• Where State Pension sits: SPI 2023-24 Table 3.6 State Pension amounts overshoot in the £20k–£70k bands (+6% to +26%) while the counts fit.
  • Nothing binds the amount or age profile of the roughly 4m recipients below the tax threshold.
  • That shape decides how a State Pension uprating change falls across income deciles.
• Pension Credit: spending fits exactly, but the engine pays about 2.0m benefit units against DWP's 1.38m caseload (FY2025-26, measured on the UK CGT: interpolate the sub-exempt remainder, anchor the clone incidence, and fence projected entrants (#970) microcosm#979 national build). The model has too many small awards.
• State Pension age: ONS population targets are five-year bands, so the age 65/66 split at State Pension age is free. The State Pension age population moves by build, from 12.19m to 12.51m.
• Contributions: no pension contribution is targeted.
  • Employer contributions are a heuristic, three times employee contributions. DWP's savings trends put the ratio nearer 2.3.
  • The salary-sacrifice contributions row stays excluded because its source link returns 404 (UK national gaps: CGT gain bands, housing cost aggregates, Scotland household composition, salary-sacrifice contributions, benefit cap reduction #196, UK source packages, wave 2: national fiscal/benefit families + uk_national target profile #133).

Consumer: a multi-year analysis of State Pension uprating against the triple lock, with budget and income-decile effects for 2027-28 to 2030-31, and the Microcosm State Pension targets generally.

Requested facts

1. DWP Stat-Xplore: State Pension caseload (dataset "SP")

• Source: https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk, metadata at https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/SP/SP.html. Administrative data (100% of cases). Released annually in the DWP Benefits Statistics Compendium (15 Sep 2026; next 21 Sep 2027).
• Fields: Quarter; National - Regional - LA - OAs; Age (bands and single years 60–90); Category of Pension; Country summary; Gender; Grouped Amount of Benefit.
• Measures: caseload and average weekly amount in payment.
• Query: Country summary = GB only.
  • The Country summary values are GB, Abroad - not frozen, Abroad - frozen, The Channel Islands and Unknown. So abroad cases drop out at source rather than by subtraction.
  • Quarters: the four points covering FY2025-26, plus the latest.
  • Cut by single year of age (60–90), gender, category of pension and country/region. Category of pension groups into pre-2016 (A, B, ABL, BL, AB, GRB only, C, D) against new State Pension without and with a protected payment.
  • Measures: caseload and average weekly amount.
• Grouped amount bands: the metadata shows a top band of "£150.00 and over", too coarse to be useful. Please check the live value set. If it stops at £150, the average amount per cell is the measure to emit.
• Parity check (March 2026, including abroad): 13,307,800 cases, 5.4m on the new State Pension, mean £211.31 a week. About 1.1m live abroad.
• Constrains: state_pension recipiency and amount by age × sex × type × region for UK residents. It also pins the State Pension age boundary (single years 65–67) jointly with ONS.

2. DWP Stat-Xplore: Pension Credit caseload (dataset "PC")

• Source: https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/PC/PC.html. GB, administrative, same release cadence.
• Fields: Type of Pension Credit (Guarantee Credit only, Savings Credit only, both, Residual MIG case), Partner indicator, Age (single years 65–89 and bands), Gender, National - Regional, Duration of Claim, Grouped Amount of Benefit.
• Query: the FY2025-26 quarters plus the latest, crossed by type × partner indicator × age band × country/region. Emit caseload, and the average award if the dataset offers it.
• Parity check (March 2026): 1.382m claims: Guarantee Credit only 833k, Savings Credit only 151k, both 398k. 1.5m beneficiaries.
• Constrains: the benefit-unit caseload for pension_credit, guarantee_credit and savings_credit, by couple status and age.

3. Northern Ireland: State Pension and Pension Credit

• Source: DfC/NISRA "Benefits Statistics Summary Publication – May 2026" (26 Aug 2026; quarterly; next 25 Nov 2026), https://datavis.nisra.gov.uk/communities/benefits-statistics-summary-may-2026.html, with its "State Pension - May 2026" and Pension Credit workbooks. Administrative.
• Parity check:
  • State Pension: 335,540 claimants, of whom 152,970 on the new State Pension; average £227.39 a week.
  • Pension Credit: 60,030 claimants, 68,900 beneficiaries, average £92.88 a week.
• Cross-check (optional): the NI National Insurance Fund Account 2024-25, note 5.7: State Pension £3,462.9m. This includes NI pensioners living abroad, so the caseload × average is the resident measure.
• Constrains: the Northern Ireland part of the UK resident State Pension and Pension Credit targets.

4. Workplace pension contributions

• DWP "Workplace pension participation and savings trends of employees: 2009 to 2025" (30 Jul 2026, ODS/XLSX). GB, ASHE-based.
  • Parity check: total annual saving of eligible savers £166.1bn in 2025, split employer 61%, employee 27% and income-tax relief 12%.
  • Participation: 22.6m eligible employees (90%), and 24.2m of all employees (82%).
  • Please carry the breakdowns by age, sex, earnings band and sector.
  • Methodology question to note in the package: whether salary-sacrificed amounts are counted as employer contributions.
• ONS "Employee workplace pensions in the UK: 2024 provisional and 2021 to 2023 final results" (10 Mar 2026). UK, ASHE.
  • Tables P1–P4: pension type by age, industry, occupation or firm size × weekly-earnings band.
  • Tables P5–P8: employee contribution-rate bands. Tables P9–P12: employer contribution-rate bands.
• Constrains: employee_pension_contributions and employer_pension_contributions, and participation. This replaces the 3× employer heuristic.

5. Salary-sacrificed contributions above the cap

• OBR "Supplementary forecast information: salary sacrifice costing" (5 Feb 2026), https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/Supplementary-forecast-information-salary-sacrifice-costing-1.pdf, Table 1.1.
  • Salary-sacrificed contributions above £2,000: £12.9bn (2027-28) to £15.1bn (2030-31).
  • Bonus-sacrificed contributions: £13.0bn to £14.2bn.
  • These are projections from an ASHE 2024 base. The OBR notes that HMRC holds no administrative salary-sacrifice data.
• HMRC tax information and impact note "Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions" (4 Dec 2025): 7.7m users, 3.3m above £2,000, 290,000 employers, and NICs relief of £5.8bn (2023-24).
  • Check against the headcounts Chronicle already emits. If this note is their source, only the NICs relief series is new.
• Constrains: pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice, above and below the 2029 cap.

6. Winter Fuel Payment 2025-26

• DWP "Winter Fuel Payment statistics for winter 2025 to 2026" (15 Sep 2026; ODS and Stat-Xplore). England and Wales, administrative.
  • 10.9m recipients and 11.0m beneficiaries.
  • Payment mix: £100 37%, £150 9%, £200 38%, £300 17%. Age bands 66–69 to 80+.
• HMRC tax information and impact note "Winter Fuel Payments charge" (26 Nov 2025): about 2.2m UK recipients with income over £35,000 (1.3m PAYE-only, 0.9m Self Assessment).
  • This is an HMRC estimate, so emit it as a projection, not an outturn.
• Constrains: winter_fuel_allowance recipiency, and the count of pensioners with income over £35,000.

7. Unported pension rows of files Chronicle already archives

• DWP benefit statistics, February 2026 (HTML). Only ESA and JSA were ported. The same page gives, at August 2025:
  • State Pension 13,212,000.
  • Pension Credit 1,390,000, by type and sex.
  • Average weekly State Pension by scheme and sex: new State Pension £218.06 (men) and £214.51 (women); pre-2016 £225.04 and £194.94.
  • Attendance Allowance 1,744,000.
• DWP benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2026 (workbook). Seven of its 34 sheets are ported. Please add:
  • Tables 1c/2c: caseloads including Winter Fuel Payment and Attendance Allowance, and the pensioner-by-age blocks.
  • The Disability_benefits sheet.
• HMRC private pension statistics, Tables 6.1/6.2 (CSV). Only the salary-sacrifice rows are ported. Please add the relief rows by sector and scheme type:
  • Income tax relief on individual net-pay contributions (£7.0bn) and on relief-at-source contributions (£5.9bn).
  • Income tax relief on employer contributions (£24.8bn and £9.2bn).
  • NICs relief on employer contributions (£10.6bn and £3.8bn).

Proposed shape

• Entity and role: person, role claimant, as the Spring 2026 DWP package does. A Pension Credit claim is one per benefit unit, and the consumer maps it. Emit beneficiaries as a separate measure where published.
• Geography: K03000001 (GB) plus countries and regions for the DWP datasets, N92000002 for NISRA, K02000001 only where the publisher's scope is the UK.
• Periods: period_type: point_in_time quarter-end dates for caseloads, and fiscal or calendar years for flows.
• Provenance: provenance_class: administrative, except the OBR costing and the HMRC impact-note counts, which are projections or estimates.
• Dimensions: the Stat-Xplore labels, slugged per UC element counts by Payment Indicator, housing-tenure relabel, childcare element amounts, earnings indicator and Housing Benefit caseload, January 2023 to the latest month, for the microcosm UC target surface #259's row-semantic rule, e.g. country_summary, category_of_pension, type_of_pension_credit, partner_indicator. Single-year age should use the existing age dimension.
• Emitted measures: only what the publisher emits: caseload, average weekly amount, amount, participation. No products or shares. Keep "Unknown" rows as source cells.
• Stat-Xplore mechanics: as in Add UK source packages for #233–#237: UC child-entitlement and nil-award crosses, award-band and Scotland histories, ONS family tables, HMRC Child Benefit, census household composition #239 and UK source packages: UC payment-status × child-entitlement composition crosses #251, save the raw /table responses verbatim with explicit DATE recodes, and check the label of the latest month (the compendium says March 2026, the field metadata Feb/May/Aug/Nov).

Not asked

• HBAI, Pensioners' Incomes and DWP take-up estimates: these are FRS-derived, so they are circular as calibration targets.
• Anything already on the feed: the Spring 2026 DWP State Pension, Pension Credit and "paid outside UK" lines, ONS single-year ages, SPI Tables 3.4, 3.6, 3.8 and 3.11, and Income Tax liabilities Tables 2.1/2.2. Binding them is Microcosm's work, in a separate issue.
• ONS mid-2025 UK population estimates (due 1 Oct 2026): a routine vintage refresh of UK source packages, wave 1: the production 149-target national surface (ONS SNPP, SLC, OBR) #132's package, not part of this request.
• SPI pension income by age: no published table crosses income source with age. It would need the public-use tape.
• Any consumer change: binding these facts and redefining the State Pension target to UK residents is Microcosm's work.

Context

• Consumer files in Microcosm:
  • packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json (the obr, hmrc_spi and hmrc_salary_sacrifice families).
  • uk/calibration_measure_exclusions.json (the salary-sacrifice relief rows, Calibrate the UK national build from Ledger-backed targets microcosm#623 and Swap the microcosm-built UK spine into the national build and retire the incumbent feed microcosm#757).
  • uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json (the State Pension £50–70k band deferral, UK income anchors at the calibration year and reserved top-tail income rows (income-anchor lane, PolicyEngine/chronicle#280) microcosm#1006).
• Related: UK scorecard: populace_uk_2023 vs enhanced_frs_2024_25 vs admin benchmarks (2026) microcosm#731 (State Pension £10–15bn low), UK spine: housing benefit £2.7bn against OBR £12.1bn — pensioner and supported-accommodation HB missing after the UC migration microcosm#867 (pension-age Housing Benefit), UK dataset build: full migration from policyengine-uk-data (master epic) microcosm#665.
• Precedents: Add UK source packages for #233–#237: UC child-entitlement and nil-award crosses, award-band and Scotland histories, ONS family tables, HMRC Child Benefit, census household composition #239 and UK source packages: UC payment-status × child-entitlement composition crosses #251 (Stat-Xplore packages), UK income facts for the 2025 calibration: SPI 2023-24 Tables 3.3/3.4/3.5/3.8/3.11 and the 3.7 remainder, HMRC liabilities projections (Tables 2.1 to 2.6), ESA caseload by payment type, property rental income statistics 2026, DWP Spring 2026 expenditure tables #280 (the income-facts lane that delivered the Spring 2026 DWP tables and SPI 3.x), UK source packages, wave 1: the production 149-target national surface (ONS SNPP, SLC, OBR) #132 (ONS population), UK national gaps: CGT gain bands, housing cost aggregates, Scotland household composition, salary-sacrifice contributions, benefit cap reduction #196 and UK source packages, wave 2: national fiscal/benefit families + uk_national target profile #133 (the salary-sacrifice base that stayed unresolved).
• Figures above: the parity numbers are from the publishers' pages as read on 2026-09-29. The Stat-Xplore values are from DWP's compendium and field metadata, not from a table query, and should be confirmed at fetch time.

🤖 Filed with Claude Code