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Require published numbers to come from model runs - #8
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Merge audit: carries out Max's request (2026-09-29) to make "every reported number is a model run" a standing rule. Independent Opus reviews: round 1 requested wording fixes (scope to PolicyEngine estimates; the uprating claim), both fixed in 9e9a6bd; round 3 approved at 9e9a6bd. No CI configured on this repo; branch unprotected. Agent-facing version: PolicyEngine/policyengine-skills#92. |
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Adds one anti-pattern to the shared contribution guide: every fiscal, distributional, poverty or household figure comes from running the microsimulation for that scenario, never from scaling, interpolating or extrapolating other runs, or from a side model. Macro scenarios go in as model inputs so everything uprated by them moves.
Why: the uk-triple-lock dashboard priced 20,000 uncertainty draws by linear scaling from one central run, with about 30 real runs, and moved only the pension rate in each draw. The agent-facing version, with the verified UK mechanics, is PolicyEngine/policyengine-skills#92.
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