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Closing in favor of #115 |
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This PR adds a new
ShortfallEventsresult specification that records shortfall events directly during simulation.We define an "adequacy event" as a set of event-periods that are contiguous at the highest available temporal resolution [1].
Events are recorded separately for each Monte Carlo sample at both system and regional levels.
ShortfallResultdoes not retain sufficient information to reconstruct individual events. At the same time, obtaining this information fromShortfallSamplesResultrequires storing and postprocessing the fullregions × timestamps × samplesshortfall tensor.ShortfallEventsinstead stores event boundaries and accumulated unserved energy, avoiding that dense tensor, which provides a more compact representation for event analysis, particularly when shortfalls are sparse.The implementation adds the following metrics at both system and regional levels:
With the implementation of
LOLEv, all metrics defined in [2] are now included in PRAS.Additionally, this PR extends
PRASFilesto support JSON export ofShortfallEventsResult. This includes both aggregate event-level metrics and optionally raw event records at the system and regional levels.Benchmarks
1) RTS-GMLC with 10× regional load: 3 regions, 8,784 hourly timesteps (2,000 MC samples, 6 threads)
The run recorded 2,000 system events and 6,000 regional events across all samples.
assesstime (s)ShortfallSamples()ShortfallEvents()2) 13-region system: 8,761 hourly timesteps (2,000 MC samples, 6 threads)
The run recorded 362 system events and 1,839 regional events across all samples.
assesstime (s)ShortfallSamples()ShortfallEvents()Note on Result size:
ShortfallSamplesstores every region-timestep-sample value, whereasShortfallEventsstores event records plus per-sample bookkeeping. Both results also reference regional metadata.Event storage is particularly compact when shortfalls are infrequent or persist across consecutive timesteps, while many separate short events can reduce or eliminate the size advantage.
[1] Stephen et al. (2022), "Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric"
[2] NERC (2018), "Probabilistic Adequacy and Measures Technical Reference Report"