diff --git a/.claude/launch.json b/.claude/launch.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..77ea8e0 --- /dev/null +++ b/.claude/launch.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "version": "0.0.1", + "configurations": [ + { + "name": "quant-web", + "runtimeExecutable": "python", + "runtimeArgs": ["app.py", "--host", "127.0.0.1", "--port", "8000"], + "port": 8000 + } + ] +} diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example index 53822ab..5acf9a4 100644 --- a/.env.example +++ b/.env.example @@ -7,5 +7,40 @@ DEEPSEEK_API_KEY= # Application settings LOG_LEVEL=INFO -# Optional bearer token required for /api routes when set +# Optional bearer token. When set, every /api route except /api/health +# requires it (Authorization: Bearer or X-API-Key). Enter the same +# value in the UI's Settings page — it is kept in browser localStorage and is +# NOT baked into the frontend bundle. +# When unset, every /api route is loopback-only; remote access is refused. +# The shared token authenticates a consumer; it is NOT a tenant boundary. +# Tenant-scoped reads accept X-Tenant-Id / tenant_id and default to +# "default"; cross-tenant reads require all_tenants=true from loopback. +# WebSocket auth uses the `bearer.` subprotocol; a token must be +# RFC 7230-safe (letters, digits, - . _ ~ and similar) because the legacy +# ?token= query transport was removed. QUANT_API_TOKEN= + +# Optional Host-header allowlist (comma separated): quant.example.com, +# *.corp.example.com. Unset = any syntactically valid host. Set this for +# proxy/ingress deployments; path-delimiter or malformed Hosts are always +# rejected before routing. +QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS= + +# Optional cross-origin allowlist for browser requests (comma separated, +# exact origins, case-insensitive, no wildcards): https://quant.example.com, +# http://dev-box:8080. Every request carrying an Origin header must be +# same-origin with the request Host (scheme + host + port) or listed here; +# otherwise it is rejected before routing/auth (HTTP 403, WebSocket close +# 1008). Requests without Origin (curl, server-to-server) are unaffected. +# Set this when the UI is served from a different origin than the API, or +# behind a TLS-terminating proxy that makes the upstream scheme http. +# Local `npm run dev` (Vite on :5173) is cross-origin to the API; add +# http://localhost:5173,http://127.0.0.1:5173 for that flow. +QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS= + +# QMT trading password (env-only — never send a password in an API body). +QMT_PASSWORD= + +# QMT terminal address (operator config; request bodies cannot set it). +QMT_SERVER=localhost:58610 + diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml index d10549c..fa92e01 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/ci.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml @@ -74,14 +74,15 @@ jobs: run: | python -m pip install --upgrade pip pip install -r requirements.txt - pip install -e ./packages/quant_core - pip install -e . - - # The repo root *is* the quant_platform package; putting its parent on - # PYTHONPATH is what makes `import quant_platform` resolve. Depends on - # the checkout directory being named `quant_platform`. - - name: Make quant_platform importable - run: echo "PYTHONPATH=$GITHUB_WORKSPACE/.." >> "$GITHUB_ENV" + pip install -e ./packages/quant_core --no-deps + pip install -e . --no-deps + + # The editable install now maps `quant_platform` to the repo root. No + # PYTHONPATH shim: that would reintroduce the second import identity + # (`data.x` vs `quant_platform.data.x`, issue #69). + - name: Verify a single package identity + run: | + python -c "import sys; import quant_platform.data.providers.synthetic as m; assert 'data' not in sys.modules, 'flat identity is back'; print(m.__name__)" - name: Run tests run: | diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index 427db5d..190b944 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ env/ # Cache .quant_cache/ +.quant_versions/ .sentiment_cache/ .pytest_cache/ .agent_cache/ @@ -33,6 +34,10 @@ results/*.png results/*.pdf results/ +# SQLite runtime sidecars (WAL mode leaves these next to the database) +*.db-wal +*.db-shm + # Coverage .coverage htmlcov/ @@ -72,3 +77,5 @@ baostock_run_err.log # Generated data frontend/data/ + +.scratch/ diff --git a/.quant_versions/index.json b/.quant_versions/index.json index 943d521..b2d0dd6 100644 --- a/.quant_versions/index.json +++ b/.quant_versions/index.json @@ -215,5 +215,19 @@ "description": "Run: alpha=equal_weight optimizer=mean_variance", "run_id": "", "config_hash": "faa9846f3834" + }, + "v32": { + "id": "v32", + "timestamp": "2026-10-20T20:49:04", + "description": "Run: alpha=equal_weight optimizer=mean_variance", + "run_id": "d3aaa4ea7faf", + "config_hash": "87b729e5393d" + }, + "v33": { + "id": "v33", + "timestamp": "2026-10-20T20:52:53", + "description": "Run: alpha=equal_weight optimizer=mean_variance", + "run_id": "435a9843eee2", + "config_hash": "87b729e5393d" } } \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/AGENTS.md b/AGENTS.md index e3aaae6..7b47050 100644 --- a/AGENTS.md +++ b/AGENTS.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ > **一句话**：A股多因子量化研究+交易平台，从数据到回测到执行的完整流水线。面向量化开发面试，展示架构设计、性能优化、真实市场处理、LLM增强选股、ML信号、图网络因子、Barra风险模型、Prometheus监控、机构级风控和执行。 -**最终状态**：1077 单元测试全部通过。96个Python模块 + 37个Vue组件。30,000+行Python + 9,800+行Vue。6个Numba JIT内核加速。**97 REST API端点**。**事件驱动核心架构 + 实时风控熔断 + 多因子信号 + WebSocket实时推送 + 实时A股行情 + Level 2盘口 + 实时基本面 + PostgreSQL存储 + Paper Trading(延迟/部分成交/撤单失败/L2回放) + QMT/XTP实盘接口 + 合规导出 + 基金运营(NAV/投资者门户) + 跨资产接口(股票/ETF/期货/期权)**。**企业级就绪度评估：A（生产级研究+交易平台）**——详见[企业级就绪度评估](#企业级就绪度评估)。 +**最终状态（2026-10-22 实测）**：3,028 个测试函数（3,342 条用例；2026-10-21 全量 3339 passed / 3 skipped；基线 8f8caec 为 2709 passed / 3 skipped）。约 233 个非测试 Python 文件 + 236 个测试文件 + 37 个 Vue 组件。约 75,000 行非测试 Python + 约 11,000 行 Vue。6 个 Numba JIT 内核加速。**99 个 HTTP 端点 + 1 个 WebSocket**。**事件驱动核心架构 + 实时风控熔断 + 多因子信号 + WebSocket实时推送 + 实时A股行情 + Level 2盘口 + 实时基本面 + PostgreSQL存储 + Paper Trading(延迟/部分成交/撤单失败/L2回放) + QMT/XTP实盘接口 + 合规导出 + 基金运营(NAV/投资者门户) + 跨资产接口(股票/ETF/期货/期权)**。**企业级就绪度评估：A（生产级研究+交易平台）**——详见[企业级就绪度评估](#企业级就绪度评估)。 --- @@ -33,13 +33,13 @@ │ EventBus · Store · StateMachine · Audit │ │ Scheduler · RiskMonitor · CircuitBreaker │ └──────────────┬──────────────────────────────┘ - │ 所有组件通过EventBus通信 - │ 所有状态通过Store持久化 - │ 所有决策通过AuditLog记录 + │ 运行时核心（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）通过 EventBus 通信 + │ 运行时状态通过Store持久化 + │ 运行时决策通过AuditLog记录 ┌──────────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────┐ v v v Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer -(价格+财务) (15个因子) (信号生成) (MVO/RP/EW) +(价格+财务) (默认21个因子) (信号生成) (MVO/RP/EW) | v Backtest Engine --> Risk Module --> Execution Layer @@ -51,13 +51,13 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer | v Web Dashboard (Vue 3 + ECharts) - REST API (97 endpoints) + REST API (99 HTTP endpoints + 1 WebSocket) WebSocket (实时推送) ``` **核心设计原则**： -- **事件驱动架构**：EventBus解耦所有组件，topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配，死信队列 -- **全状态持久化**：SQLite WAL模式，8张表（orders/positions/trades/pnl/signals/sessions/events/config） +- **事件驱动架构**：EventBus解耦运行时核心组件，topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配，死信队列（研究流水线为直接调用） +- **全状态持久化**：SQLite WAL模式，11张表（orders/positions/trades/pnl_history/signals/sessions/events/config_snapshots/nav_history/engine_state/eod_reconciliation） - **状态机管理**：8个生命周期状态，合法转换强制校验，entry/exit hooks - **合规审计**：每个信号/下单/成交/状态变更都记录 who/what/when/why/result - **ABC 抽象接口**：DataProvider / BaseFactor / PortfolioOptimizer 全部可插拔 @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer 输出: prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials [2/6] Factors - FactorEngine 计算 15 个原始因子 → 横截面处理 (缩尾/标准化/中性化) → IC 评估 + FactorEngine 计算默认 21 个因子（16 技术 + 5 基本面；注册 27 个）→ 横截面处理 (缩尾/标准化/中性化) → IC 评估 输出: processed_factors, ic_results [3/6] Alpha - AlphaPipeline 合成因子 (ICIR加权) → 横截面排名归一化 + AlphaPipeline 合成因子 (默认 equal_weight，可切换 IC/ICIR 加权) → 横截面排名归一化 输出: signal (date × asset, 越大越有吸引力) [4/6] Portfolio (嵌入回测) @@ -104,11 +104,11 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer ``` quant_platform/ │ -├── .github/workflows/ci.yml # CI/CD: pytest + lint + build gate (Python 3.10/3.11/3.12) +├── .github/workflows/ci.yml # CI/CD: pytest + lint + build gate (Python 3.11/3.12；ruff + mypy) ├── Dockerfile # Docker: Python 3.12 + Node + one-click deploy ├── docker-compose.yml # Docker Compose: API + volumes ├── .env.example # Environment variables template -├── main.py # CLI入口: run / analyze / compare / sweep / cache / web +├── main.py # CLI入口: 21个命令 (run/trade/data/.../profile) ├── app.py # FastAPI应用入口 ├── requirements.txt # Python依赖 ├── config/ @@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── core/ # ★ 核心架构层 │ ├── __init__.py # 模块说明 │ ├── events.py # EventBus: topic pub/sub, 通配符, 拦截器, 死信队列, 环形缓冲 -│ ├── store.py # SQLite持久化: WAL模式, 8张表, 线程安全, 索引优化 +│ ├── store.py # SQLite持久化: WAL模式, 11张表, 线程安全, 索引优化 │ ├── state_machine.py # PortfolioStateMachine: 8状态, 合法转换, entry/exit hooks │ ├── scheduler.py # TradingScheduler: A股开市时间, 自动状态切换, EOD对账 │ ├── context.py # TenantContext: 协程安全的多租户上下文 (contextvars) @@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── providers/ │ │ ├── base.py # DataProvider ABC │ │ ├── synthetic.py # 合成A股数据生成器 (500只/5年/可复现) -│ │ ├── tushare_loader.py # Tushare Pro实盘数据 (CSI300/前复权/HDF5缓存) +│ │ ├── tushare_loader.py # Tushare Pro实盘数据 (CSI300/后复权hfq/HDF5缓存) │ │ ├── baostock_provider.py # Baostock免费A股数据 (无需API key) │ │ ├── postgres_provider.py # PostgreSQL/TimescaleDB: SQLAlchemy连接池+asyncpg异步+SQLite自动回退 │ │ ├── websocket_provider.py # WebSocket实时行情: 东方财富/新浪推送+SimulatedWebSocketProvider测试 @@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── factors/ # 因子引擎 │ ├── base.py # BaseFactor ABC + FactorResult + FactorCategory │ ├── registry.py # 单例因子注册表 -│ ├── technical.py # 10个技术因子 (动量/波动/换手/RSI/MACD/振幅) +│ ├── technical.py # 22个技术因子 (默认启用16个: 动量/波动/换手/RSI/振幅等) │ ├── fundamental.py # 5个基本面因子 (市值/PB/PE/ROE/资产增长) │ ├── processing.py # 横截面: 缩尾→标准化→行业+市值中性化 │ ├── evaluation.py # Rank IC / Pearson IC / ICIR / 分位数收益 / 相关性 / IC衰减 @@ -168,7 +168,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── backtest/ # 回测引擎 │ ├── engine.py # 向量化多期回测/月频调仓/持仓漂移 -│ ├── cost_model.py # A股成本: 佣金0.03%/印花税0.1%(卖)/滑点 +│ ├── cost_model.py # A股成本: 佣金0.03%/印花税(默认0.1%卖；2023-08-28起法定0.05%可按日期)/滑点 │ ├── metrics.py # Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar/最大回撤/IR/胜率/盈亏比 │ ├── walkforward.py # Walk-Forward验证: 滚动/扩展窗口OOS测试+稳定性分析 │ ├── distributed.py # 并行回测: ProcessPoolExecutor参数扫描+多策略对比 @@ -197,7 +197,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── operations/ # 基金运营模块 │ ├── __init__.py # 模块说明 -│ ├── nav.py # NAVCalculator: 日频净值计算, 管理费(年化/252), 业绩报酬(高水位法) +│ ├── nav.py # NAVCalculator: 日频净值计算, 管理费(年化/365, 日历天计提), 业绩报酬(高水位法) │ └── investor.py # InvestorPortal: 投资人视图(净值曲线/收益/回撤/Sharpe/月度收益矩阵) │ ├── trading/ # 实盘交易 ★ 核心模块 @@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ └── research_agent.py # RAG研究Agent: 研报信号提取+因子假设生成+归因分析+风险叙述 │ ├── api/ # Web API层 -│ ├── routes.py # FastAPI路由: 97端点 (2,159行) +│ ├── routes.py # FastAPI路由: 93个HTTP端点 (4,949行) │ ├── monitor.py # 监控聚合API: 6端点 (风控/TCA/因子/容量/配置/Kill Switch) │ └── schemas.py # Pydantic请求/响应模型 │ @@ -237,10 +237,10 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── frontend/ # Vue 3 前端 │ ├── src/ -│ │ ├── App.vue # 根组件: 8个视图路由 +│ │ ├── App.vue # 根组件: 10个视图路由 │ │ ├── api/index.js # Axios API层: 35+函数 + WebSocket -│ │ └── components/ # 35个Vue组件 (9,140行) -│ │ ├── TerminalDashboard.vue # 主仪表盘: 11行×20+面板Bloomberg布局 +│ │ └── components/ # 37个Vue组件 (约11,000行) +│ │ ├── TerminalDashboard.vue # 主仪表盘: 12行×20+面板Bloomberg布局 │ │ ├── KpiStrip.vue # KPI指标条 │ │ ├── Panel.vue # 通用面板容器 │ │ ├── FactorHeatmap.vue # 因子IC热力图 @@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── package.json │ └── vite.config.js │ -├── tests/ # 1077个单元测试 +├── tests/ # 236个测试文件, 3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例） │ ├── conftest.py # 共享fixtures │ ├── test_data/ # 合成数据(9) + pipeline(5) + 质量(7) + 连接池(11) + PostgreSQL(10) + WebSocket(18) + Level2(22) + 基本面(23) = 105 │ ├── test_factors/ # 技术(6) + 基本面(5) + 处理(5) + 评估(7) + IC监控(12) + 网络(17) + 正交化(18) + 择时(25) = 95 @@ -309,12 +309,12 @@ quant_platform/ ### Core Architecture (`core/`) ★ 企业级基础设施 -**这是整个平台的神经系统。所有组件通过 EventBus 通信，所有状态通过 Store 持久化，所有决策通过 AuditLog 记录。** +**这是整个平台的神经系统。运行时核心组件（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）通过 EventBus 通信，运行时状态通过 Store 持久化，运行时决策通过 AuditLog 记录；研究流水线（因子→Alpha→回测）为直接函数调用。** | 模块 | 功能 | |------|------| | `events.py` | EventBus：topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配(`market.*`)，拦截器链，死信队列，环形缓冲历史，全局单例 | -| `store.py` | SQLite持久化：WAL模式并发读写，8张表(orders/positions/trades/pnl/signals/sessions/events/config)，线程锁保护 | +| `store.py` | SQLite持久化：WAL模式并发读写，11张表(orders/positions/trades/pnl_history/signals/sessions/events/config_snapshots/nav_history/engine_state/eod_reconciliation)，线程锁保护 | | `state_machine.py` | PortfolioStateMachine：INIT→READY→PRE_MARKET→TRADING→REBALANCING→POST_MARKET→HALTED→ERROR，合法转换强制校验 | | `scheduler.py` | TradingScheduler：A股开市时间(9:30-11:30, 13:00-15:00)，自动状态切换，EOD对账，再平衡调度 | | `audit.py` | AuditLog：每个信号/下单/成交/状态变更记录 who/what/when/why/result，三路输出(SQLite+EventBus+Logger) | @@ -339,7 +339,7 @@ bus.get_history(topic="order.*", limit=50) # 事件历史 bus.get_metrics() # 发布/订阅统计 ``` -**Store 8张表**： +**Store 11张表**： | 表 | 主键 | 内容 | |----|------|------| | orders | order_id | 订单全生命周期(创建→提交→成交/拒绝) | @@ -350,6 +350,9 @@ bus.get_metrics() # 发布/订阅统计 | sessions | session_id | 交易会话记录(开始/结束/总交易数) | | events | id | 事件审计日志(topic/data/source/timestamp) | | config_snapshots | id | 配置快照(配置变更追踪) | +| nav_history | date | 基金运营 NAV 历史(净值/份额/费用/高水位) | +| engine_state | strategy_id | 实盘/调度器状态快照(重启恢复) | +| eod_reconciliation | date | EOD 对账幂等标记(每交易日一次) | **状态机转换图**： ``` @@ -360,8 +363,8 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING │ v READY -任何状态 ──> HALTED (风险熔断/手动停止) -任何状态 ──> ERROR (不可恢复错误) +TRADING / REBALANCING ──> HALTED；运行态 ──> ERROR。 +（以 core/state_machine.py 的转换表为准，POST_MARKET 不能直接进入 HALTED） ``` ### Data Layer (`data/`) @@ -369,9 +372,9 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING | 文件 | 职责 | |------|------| | `providers/base.py` | DataProvider ABC：定义 `get_prices()` / `get_financials()` / `get_benchmark()` / `get_metadata()` | -| `providers/synthetic.py` | 500只A股合成数据，5年历史。三因子模型(市场+行业+异质)生成日收益。**含嵌入式alpha**：动量效应(IC~0.025)、价值效应、规模效应。支持停牌、涨跌停、前复权、ST标记 | -| `providers/tushare_loader.py` | Tushare Pro 实盘数据。CSI 300 成分股、前复权(qfq)、HDF5本地缓存。无token时自动回退到合成数据 | -| `providers/baostock_provider.py` | Baostock 免费A股数据。无需API key，支持日/周/月频，前复权，实时行情 | +| `providers/synthetic.py` | 500只A股合成数据，5年历史。三因子模型(市场+行业+异质)生成日收益。**含嵌入式alpha（默认开启，仅演示）**：动量效应(IC~0.025)、价值效应、规模效应。支持停牌、涨跌停、后复权、ST标记 | +| `providers/tushare_loader.py` | Tushare Pro 实盘数据。CSI 300 成分股（含历史成分与退市名单）、后复权(hfq)、HDF5本地缓存。配置的真实源不可用时默认 fail closed；仅 `--allow-synthetic-fallback` 显式允许回退 | +| `providers/baostock_provider.py` | Baostock 免费A股数据。无需API key，支持日/周/月频，后复权(hfq)，含退市名单，实时行情 | | `pipeline.py` | ETL流水线：ST过滤、停牌处理(前向填充≤30天)、复权价格计算、日收益率计算 | | `schema.py` | 28个申万行业分类、字段验证、市值分组 | | `quality.py` | DataQualityMonitor：8项数据完整性检查 + 严重性分级(info/warn/error/critical) + 质量报告 | @@ -382,7 +385,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING ### Factor Engine (`factors/`) -**10 个技术因子**： +**技术因子（注册 22 个；`config/default.yaml` 默认启用 16 个）**： | 因子 | 参数 | 说明 | |------|------|------| @@ -394,9 +397,12 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING | volatility_60d | period=60 | 60日波动率 | | turnover_20d | period=20 | 20日平均换手率 | | rsi_14d | period=14 | 相对强弱指数 | -| macd | fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | MACD 离差值 | +| macd | fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | MACD 离差值（默认配置未启用） | | amplitude_20d | period=20 | 20日平均振幅 | +另有 efficiency_ratio、breakout_ignition、trend_stage、ma_convergence、breakout_proximity、 +pure_volatility、mtf_resonance 及 5 个 K 线形态因子（klen/klow/kmid/ksft/kup），按配置启用。 + **5 个基本面因子**：log_market_cap / pb_ratio / pe_ratio / roe / asset_growth **因子处理流水线**（横截面，每日期）： @@ -463,7 +469,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING 1. 每月最后一个交易日计算目标权重 2. 次交易日收盘执行 3. 持有期间权重随价格漂移 -4. 调仓日扣除：佣金 0.03%(双边) + 印花税 0.1%(仅卖出) + 滑点 +4. 调仓日扣除：佣金 0.03%(双边) + 印花税(默认配置 0.1% 仅卖出；CostModel 支持 2023-08-28 起法定 0.05% 的按日期税率) + 滑点；执行日按 `tradable_mask`/涨跌停门禁阻断不可成交的买卖 基准：等权组合或市值加权 @@ -496,7 +502,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING ### Monitor Dashboard (`api/monitor.py` + `MonitorDashboard.vue`) -Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： +Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板；TCA / Factor / Capacity 由有界研究上下文现算（TTL 缓存、饱和 429），确实无数据（如无成交）时返回 `available:false` 及原因（前端显示不可用，不伪造数据）；Risk Dashboard 的因子暴露来自同一 Barra 计算： | 面板 | 数据源 | 展示内容 | |------|--------|---------| @@ -507,7 +513,7 @@ Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： | **Risk Config** | RiskMonitor.limits | 风控限额表单(仓位/行业/回撤/日亏) + Kill Switch按钮 | | **Factor Alerts** | FactorICAutoDecay | 因子IC/ICIR/趋势/状态表 + 自动降权因子列表 | -**API端点**: `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview|tca-summary|factor-status|capacity-gauge` + `POST /api/monitor/config|kill-switch` +**API端点**: `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview|tca-summary|factor-status|capacity-gauge` + `POST /api/monitor/config|kill-switch`（tca-summary/factor-status/capacity-gauge 由有界研究上下文现算，无成交/行情时明确 `available:false`） **前端**: 15秒轮询刷新 + ECharts图表(雷达/折线/柱状/仪表盘/瀑布) + Kill Switch确认弹窗 @@ -541,7 +547,7 @@ Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： | 模块 | 功能 | |------|------| -| `nav.py` | NAVCalculator：日频净值计算，管理费(年化/252)，业绩报酬(高水位法，仅超HWM部分收取)，NAV/单位净值/总份额/高水位追踪 | +| `nav.py` | NAVCalculator：日频净值计算，管理费(年化/365, 日历天计提)，业绩报酬(高水位法，仅超HWM部分收取)，NAV/单位净值/总份额/高水位追踪 | | `investor.py` | InvestorPortal：投资人视图(净值曲线/累计收益/年化收益/最大回撤/Sharpe/波动率/月度收益矩阵)，隐藏持仓/因子/信号细节 | ### Live Trading (`trading/`) @@ -561,7 +567,7 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 **风控集成**：每笔下单前经过RiskMonitor.check_pre_trade()——仓位限额(5%)、行业集中度(30%)、日亏损限额(3%)、回撤熔断(15%警告/25%Kill Switch)、订单频率限制(50/min)。Kill Switch激活后自动阻断所有订单。 -**多因子信号**：不再使用单一动量，而是4因子等权复合——3个月动量(趋势) + 低波动率(质量) + RSI反转(均值回归) + MACD(动量确认)。因子引擎15个因子全部可接入。 +**多因子信号**：`LiveTradingEngine`（Web API 启动）使用 7 因子等权复合——1/3/6个月动量 + 20/60日波动率 + RSI + MACD；因子引擎默认启用21个因子（注册27个）。CLI `main.py trade` 的 `LiveRunner` 与 Web 引擎共用 `trading/signals.py` 的同一 7 因子复合（横截面百分位 [0,1]，阈值 0.3），同一段历史得到逐点相同的分数与排名。 **WebSocket实时推送**：EventBus事件(order.filled/portfolio.snapshot/risk.status等)自动桥接到WebSocket，前端实时接收交易事件流，无需轮询。 @@ -571,6 +577,8 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 - 支持国金/华鑫/国盛/东方财富等券商免费miniQMT - 异步回调模式：on_order_error / on_stock_position - 代码格式自动转换：600519 ↔ 600519.SH +- 连接失败直接中止（fail closed），**不会回退 SimulatedBroker** +- 真实券商每次运行只支持 1 个交易所日（`--days 1`），且必须提供真实行情 feed；拒绝把合成价格喂给实盘订单 ### Multi-Strategy (`strategy/`) @@ -598,12 +606,12 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 LLMSentimentFactor (BaseFactor子类) ├── SentimentAnalyzer (Strategy模式) │ ├── KeywordSentimentAnalyzer (默认，零成本，关键词打分) - │ └── OpenAISentimentAnalyzer (真实API，GPT-4o-mini) + │ └── OpenAISentimentAnalyzer (真实API，deepseek-chat（OpenAI-compatible）) ├── 30条中文财经标题模板 (看涨/看跌/中性) └── JSON本地缓存 (TTL机制) ``` -作为第16个因子集成到 alpha pipeline。 +作为可选因子集成到 alpha pipeline（默认因子集不包含它）。 **ResearchAgent** — RAG风格的LLM研究Agent，展示Agent/RAG技能如何迁移到量化。 @@ -612,7 +620,7 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (BaseFactor子类) ResearchAgent ├── extract_signals_from_text() 研报/公告 → 结构化交易信号 │ └── keyword模式: 正则提取财务指标 + 关键词情感 - │ └── llm模式: GPT-4o-mini结构化抽取 + │ └── llm模式: deepseek-chat（OpenAI-compatible）结构化抽取 ├── generate_hypotheses() 市场叙事 → 因子假设 │ └── 主题关键词 → 因子映射 (资金流入→turnover, 业绩→roe...) ├── summarize_attribution() 因子贡献 → 中文归因报告 @@ -636,7 +644,7 @@ SQLite替代方案，连接池+异步支持： - SQLAlchemy连接池(QueuePool, pool_size=5, max_overflow=10) - asyncpg异步版本(AsyncPostgresStore)用于高吞吐流水线 - ORM模型：OrderRow/PositionRow/PnLRow/TradeRow/SignalRow -- 自动回退：PostgreSQL不可用时无缝降级到SQLite +- 存储层回退：`PostgresStore` 在 PostgreSQL 不可用时降级到 SQLite；但 `PostgresDataProvider`（数据读取）连接失败会抛 `ConnectionError`，不会静默伪装成真实数据 - `PostgresDataProvider` 实现 DataProvider ABC，读取OHLCV/财务/基准/元数据 ### WebSocket实时行情 (`data/providers/websocket_provider.py`) @@ -685,7 +693,7 @@ PE/PB/ROE等基本面指标实时获取： - 基于配置哈希的确定性缓存键 - 缓存数据流水线结果，避免重复计算 - `python main.py run --force` 跳过缓存 -- `python main.py cache list/clear` 管理缓存 +- `python main.py cache list` / `python main.py cache clear` 管理缓存 **Prometheus指标** (`utils/metrics.py`)： - 轻量级无依赖 Prometheus 指标收集器 @@ -708,18 +716,30 @@ PE/PB/ROE等基本面指标实时获取： ### 启动方式 ```bash -# FastAPI + Vue 静态文件 (生产模式) +# 生产模式：FastAPI + 已构建的 Vue 静态文件 python main.py web -# 独立启动 (开发模式) -python app.py +# 前端必须先构建（Node 22；frontend/dist 已 gitignore，不随仓库分发） +cd frontend && npm ci && npm run build && cd .. +# 没有 dist 时 main.py web 仍可启动，但只提供 API + +# 前端开发模式：Vite 5173，/api 代理到 127.0.0.1:8000 +cd frontend && npm run dev ``` -### API端点总览 (97) +> `python app.py` 不是 Vite 开发服务器；它启动的是同一个 FastAPI 应用（含静态文件挂载）。 +> 远程访问需设置 `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 并在 UI Settings 填入同一 token；未设置时所有 `/api` +> （除 `/api/health`）仅允许回环访问。Docker 中 `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 必填（compose 用 `:?` 强制）。 + +### API端点总览 (99 HTTP + 1 WebSocket) + +> 分析/监控端点从有界 TTL 缓存的研究上下文现算；无数据（如无成交、样本过短）时返回 `available:false` 及原因； +> 不要把它们当作已实现的分析能力宣传。 | 类别 | 端点 | 说明 | |------|------|------| | **核心** | `GET /api/health` | 健康检查 | +| | `GET /api/readiness` | 就绪探针（心跳/数据新鲜度；503 = degraded） | | | `GET /api/config` | 获取配置 | | | `POST /api/run` | 运行pipeline | | | `GET /api/run/{id}/status` | 查询运行状态 | @@ -729,11 +749,11 @@ python app.py | | `GET /api/runs` | 历史运行列表 | | **分析** | `POST /api/compare` | 多策略对比 | | | `POST /api/sweep` | 参数网格搜索 | -| | `GET /api/analysis/ic-decay` | IC衰减曲线 | -| | `GET /api/analysis/correlation` | 因子相关矩阵 | -| **高级** | `POST /api/walkforward` | Walk-Forward验证 | +| | `GET /api/analysis/ic-decay` | IC衰减曲线——因子面板+前向收益现算（horizon 1/5/10/20，含 n） | +| | `GET /api/analysis/correlation` | 因子相关矩阵——处理后的因子面板现算（方阵/对称，NaN 政策已文档化） | +| **高级** | `POST /api/walkforward` | Walk-Forward验证——真实 validator 现算，每折 train-only 重算信号，仅取 OOS 窗口 | | | `POST /api/montecarlo` | 蒙特卡洛模拟 | -| | `POST /api/risk/decompose` | 因子风险分解 | +| | `POST /api/risk/decompose` | 因子风险分解——与 `/api/barra/decompose` 共用同一 Barra 计算，Euler 风险份额合计为 1 | | | `POST /api/regime/detect` | 行情状态检测 | | | `POST /api/report/html` | 生成HTML报告 | | **OMS** | `POST /api/oms/order` | 创建订单 | @@ -790,19 +810,19 @@ python app.py | **监控** | `GET /api/metrics` | Prometheus指标(text格式) | | | `GET /api/metrics/json` | 系统指标(JSON) | | **Monitor大屏** | `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview` | 风控概览(因子暴露/集中度/回撤/VaR) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/tca-summary` | TCA统计(IS/延迟/冲击/滑点分解) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/factor-status` | 因子状态(滚动IC/归因/衰减告警) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/capacity-gauge` | 策略容量(AUM/容量曲线/参与率) | +| | `GET /api/monitor/tca-summary` | TCA统计——存储成交+订单参考价现算实现落差；无成交时明确 `available:false` | +| | `GET /api/monitor/factor-status` | 因子状态——滚动 IC/ICIR/衰减现算；样本不足时说明所需会话数 | +| | `GET /api/monitor/capacity-gauge` | 策略容量——ADV 参与率假设下的容量曲线现算；无成交量数据时明确 `available:false` | | | `POST /api/monitor/config` | 风控限额更新 | | | `POST /api/monitor/kill-switch` | Kill Switch触发 | | **PostgreSQL** | `GET /api/postgres/stats` | PostgreSQL存储统计(SQLite回退) | -| **WebSocket行情** | `GET /api/ws-quotes/start` | 启动WebSocket行情服务 | -| | `GET /api/ws-quotes/stop` | 停止WebSocket行情服务 | +| **WebSocket行情** | `POST /api/ws-quotes/start` | 启动WebSocket行情服务 | +| | `POST /api/ws-quotes/stop` | 停止WebSocket行情服务 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes/stats` | WebSocket连接统计 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes/{code}` | 个股实时报价 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes` | 所有缓存报价 | -| **Level 2盘口** | `GET /api/l2/start` | 启动Level 2数据服务 | -| | `GET /api/l2/stop` | 停止Level 2服务 | +| **Level 2盘口** | `POST /api/l2/start` | 启动Level 2数据服务 | +| | `POST /api/l2/stop` | 停止Level 2服务 | | | `GET /api/l2/stats` | Level 2统计 | | | `GET /api/l2/book/{code}` | 10档订单簿 | | | `GET /api/l2/ticks/{code}` | 逐笔成交数据 | @@ -814,11 +834,11 @@ python app.py | | `POST /api/fundamentals/rank` | 基本面排名 | | | `GET /api/fundamentals/stats` | 基本面服务统计 | -### 前端视图 (8个) +### 前端视图 (10个) | 视图 | 组件 | 功能 | |------|------|------| -| **Terminal** | TerminalDashboard (11行×20+面板) | Bloomberg Terminal风格主仪表盘 | +| **Terminal** | TerminalDashboard (12行×20+面板) | Bloomberg Terminal风格主仪表盘 | | **Trading** | LiveTrading | 实盘交易引擎：Paper Trading + QMT实盘 + 实时行情 + 持仓P&L + 状态机 + 风控面板 + 审计日志 + 事件流 | | **Live** | LivePortfolio | 实时组合追踪 (Baostock) | | **OMS** | OrderBlotter | 订单管理+持仓+TCA | @@ -829,7 +849,7 @@ python app.py | **Settings** | SettingsPage | 配置管理 | | **Monitor** | MonitorDashboard | Bloomberg风格监控大屏：风控/TCA/因子/容量/配置6面板 | -### TerminalDashboard 面板布局 (11行) +### TerminalDashboard 面板布局 (12行) ``` Row 0: KPI Strip (12个指标卡) @@ -838,13 +858,13 @@ Row 2: Factor IC Heatmap + Risk Gauges + Portfolio Exposure Row 3: Return Distribution + Excess Cumulative + Top Holdings Row 4: Factor Scatter + P&L Attribution + Turnover Row 5: Drawdown Periods Table -Row 6: Factor Correlation + IC Decay -Row 7: Monthly Returns Heatmap + Rolling Sharpe -Row 8: Walk-Forward + Monte Carlo + Risk Decomposition -Row 9: Market Regime + Risk Monitor -Row 10: Multi-Strategy + Data Quality -Row 11: HTML Report Download Bar -Row 12: System Log +Row 5b: Factor Correlation + IC Decay +Row 6: Monthly Returns Heatmap + Rolling Sharpe +Row 7: Walk-Forward + Monte Carlo + Risk Decomposition +Row 8: Market Regime + Risk Monitor +Row 9: Multi-Strategy + Data Quality + Report +Row 10: Report Generation +Row 11: System Log ``` --- @@ -907,6 +927,9 @@ python main.py analyze --results-dir ./results python main.py cache list python main.py cache clear +# 数据保留（归档后删除超过保留期的行） +python main.py data retention --archive-dir ./archive + # ML Alpha信号 python main.py ml train --model lightgbm # 训练ML模型+展示性能 python main.py ml signal --model xgboost # 生成ML信号+Top/Bottom股票 @@ -921,9 +944,9 @@ python main.py profile # 各阶段耗时条形图 python main.py trade # 30天仿真，默认5只蓝筹 python main.py trade --broker paper --days 60 --cash 5000000 -# QMT实盘 (需miniQMT + xtquant已安装) +# QMT实盘 (需miniQMT + xtquant已安装；真实券商每次运行只支持 1 个交易所日) export QMT_PASSWORD="your_password" -python main.py trade --broker qmt --universe "600519,000858,000001" --days 30 +python main.py trade --broker qmt --universe "600519,000858,000001" --days 1 # 启动Web服务 python main.py web @@ -968,18 +991,18 @@ risk.var.method: "historical" | "parametric" | "monte_carlo" | # | 陷阱 | 处理方案 | |---|------|---------| -| 1 | **复权** | Tushare 取前复权(qfq)；合成数据生成 `adj_factor`，计算 `close_adj` | -| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌移出股票池 | +| 1 | **复权** | Tushare/Baostock 取后复权(hfq)；合成数据生成 `adj_factor`，计算 `close_adj` | +| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌保留历史、缺口保持 NaN（不整段删除）；停牌日 `tradable_mask=False` | | 3 | **幸存者偏差** | 跟踪上市/退市日期，时间点股票池构建，不偷看未来成分股 | -| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记涨跌停标志；成本模型加额外滑点 | -| 5 | **ST股票** | `is_st` 标记，默认排除(±5%涨跌停/高退市风险/低流动性) | +| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记 `is_limit_up/down`；回测在**执行日**阻断涨停买入/跌停卖出，未成交目标顺延 | +| 5 | **ST股票** | 按公告日构建 PIT `is_st` 掩码，默认排除；无 ST 历史的数据源显式标记不可用 | | 6 | **T+1** | 月频调仓天然规避；日频用 `shift(-1)` 次日执行 | | 7 | **交易成本** | 佣金0.03%双边 + 印花税0.1%仅卖出 + 滑点(固定/比例) | -| 8 | **手数限制** | 100股=1手，优化器向下取整到整手倍数 | -| 9 | **除权除息** | 前复权将分红调整嵌入历史价格 | -| 10 | **行业漂移** | 取最新行业分类；动态中性化处理 | +| 8 | **手数限制** | 100股=1手；实盘/执行层向下取整，回测为权重层面（未强制整手） | +| 9 | **除权除息** | 后复权将分红/拆股调整嵌入历史价格 | +| 10 | **行业漂移** | `get_sector_panel()` 按 effective_date 逐日行业面板；无历史时回退当前分类 | -**面试一句话回答**："非常接近实盘。我们处理了前复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1、涨跌停、手数限制，成本模型含印花税单边征收和滑点。月频多因子策略不需要高频order-book级别的流动性建模。" +**面试一句话回答**："非常接近实盘。我们处理了后复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1、涨跌停、手数限制，成本模型含印花税单边征收和滑点。月频多因子策略不需要高频order-book级别的流动性建模。" 详细版见 `data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md`。 @@ -1021,15 +1044,15 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 ### 核心技术 (必讲) -1. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+死信队列) + SQLite持久化(8表+WAL) + StateMachine(8状态+合法转换) + AuditLog(合规审计) + Scheduler(A股开市时间)，企业级基础设施 +1. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+死信队列) + SQLite持久化(11表+WAL) + StateMachine(8状态+合法转换) + AuditLog(合规审计) + Scheduler(A股开市时间)，企业级基础设施 2. **实盘交易引擎** — AKShare实时A股行情 + **多因子信号**(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD复合) + **实时风控熔断**(RiskMonitor+Kill Switch) + Paper Trading + QMT/xtquant实盘 + **WebSocket实时推送** -3. **实盘数据流水线** — Tushare + Baostock + AKShare 三数据源，前复权(qfq)，HDF5 缓存，实时行情快照 -4. **10个A股实盘陷阱全处理** — 有文档、有代码、能讲清楚 +3. **实盘数据流水线** — Tushare + Baostock + AKShare 三数据源，后复权(hfq)，HDF5 缓存，实时行情快照 +4. **10个A股实盘陷阱均有处理或明确标注（涨跌停/整手在回测层仍有限制）** — 有文档、有代码、能讲清楚 5. **Numba JIT 加速** — 6个计算内核 LLVM 编译，prange 并行化，日志输出 Pandas vs Numba 加速比 -6. **LLM Agent 集成** — 财经新闻情感因子，Strategy 模式可插拔 OpenAI，JSON 缓存 -7. **向量化回测** — 热路径无 for 循环，月频调仓+日频漂移，完整成本模型 +6. **LLM Agent 集成** — 财经新闻情感因子，Strategy 模式可插拔 DeepSeek（OpenAI 兼容接口），JSON 缓存 +7. **向量化回测** — 横截面运算向量化（回测按交易日/调仓日推进，非逐股票循环），月频调仓+日频漂移，完整成本模型 8. **未来函数防范** — Point-in-time IC加权(严格因果) + IC计算无shift链条 + Walk-Forward折内重算信号 + 合成数据真实IC水平，5项显式防护 -9. **数据时间点快照** — 财务数据publish_date过滤 + ST公告滞后 + 行业分类effective_date，回测零前视偏差 +9. **数据时间点快照** — PIT 掩码已覆盖因子/信号阶段（publish_date 财务、ST 公告日、行业生效日），回测执行日已按 `tradable_mask`/涨跌停阻断成交；价格基准已统一（provider 交付 raw OHLCV + 复权因子，`get_raw_close()` 用于成交/估值、`get_adjusted_close()` 用于研究），增量更新已实现（`--incremental`，边界去重/复权刷新/完成标记/新鲜度门禁）。残余缺口是数据源相关的 ST 历史（Tushare/Baostock 不提供，仅合成数据有）与 Postgres/Adata 未声明价格基准。详见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 第十一轮 10. **IC自动降权** — FactorICAutoDecay: 滚动IC监控 → 连续低IC自动禁用 → IC回升自动恢复 → 权重归零+重归一化 11. **开盘前系统自检** — HealthCheck 5项检查(数据连接/资金余额/持仓核对/订单路由/风控限额) → 任一失败阻断发单 12. **跨资产接口** — InstrumentType/Instrument/AssetUniverse统一抽象，消除lot_size=100/multiplier=1硬编码，支持股票/ETF/期货/期权，per-instrument成本/保证金/T+1规则，向后兼容 @@ -1065,10 +1088,10 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 29. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus/Store/StateMachine/AuditLog/Scheduler 五大组件，解耦+持久化+状态管理+合规审计 30. **实时风控熔断** — RiskMonitor集成到交易引擎，下单前自动检查，Kill Switch一键熔断 31. **WebSocket实时推送** — EventBus→WebSocket桥接，交易事件实时推送到前端 -32. **FastAPI + Vue 3 Web 界面** — REST API 97端点 + Bloomberg Terminal风格暗色仪表盘 + 9个视图 +32. **FastAPI + Vue 3 Web 界面** — REST API 99端点 + Bloomberg Terminal风格暗色仪表盘 + 10个视图 33. **ABC抽象接口** — DataProvider / BaseFactor / PortfolioOptimizer 全部可插拔，注册表模式 34. **配置驱动** — YAML参数化，零硬编码，类型化dataclass验证 -35. **1077个单元测试** — 覆盖全模块：数据/因子/Alpha/组合/回测/风险/LLM/报告/工具/核心架构/执行/交易/策略/ML/IC/Barra/指标/并行/Agent/连接池/图因子/PostgreSQL/WebSocket/Level2/基本面/合规导出/基金运营/监控API/跨资产/Paper Broker/XTP Broker/Live Runner/QMT Broker +35. **3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例；3339 passed / 3 skipped）** — 覆盖全模块：数据/因子/Alpha/组合/回测/风险/LLM/报告/工具/核心架构/执行/交易/策略/ML/IC/Barra/指标/并行/Agent/连接池/图因子/PostgreSQL/WebSocket/Level2/基本面/合规导出/基金运营/监控API/跨资产/Paper Broker/XTP Broker/Live Runner/QMT Broker 36. **Pipeline 缓存** — 基于 config hash 的自动缓存，支持 `--force` `--no-cache` --- @@ -1083,22 +1106,22 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 | 维度 | 现状 | 评级 | |------|------|------| -| **事件驱动架构** | EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+拦截器+死信队列)解耦所有组件，EventBus→WebSocket桥接 | A | -| **数据持久化** | SQLite WAL模式，8张表，线程安全，全状态持久化 | A | +| **事件驱动架构** | EventBus 用于运行时核心（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）并桥接 WebSocket；研究流水线为直接调用 | A- | +| **数据持久化** | SQLite WAL模式，11张表，线程安全，全状态持久化 | A | | **状态管理** | 8状态有限状态机，合法转换强制校验，entry/exit hooks | A | -| **合规审计** | 每个决策记录who/what/when/why/result，三路输出，前端实时展示 | A | +| **合规审计** | 订单/成交/信号三路输出；状态转换与 OMS/API 下单未全部接入审计 | B+ | | **实时风控** | RiskMonitor集成到交易引擎，下单前自动检查，Kill Switch一键熔断，前端实时风险面板 | A | -| **多因子信号** | 4因子等权复合(动量+低波+RSI反转+MACD)，替代单一动量，15因子引擎可扩展接入 | A | +| **多因子信号** | Web 引擎与 CLI LiveRunner 共用同一 7 因子等权复合（1/3/6月动量+20/60日波动+RSI+MACD，百分位分数 [0,1]），默认启用21个因子 | B+ | | **实时推送** | EventBus→WebSocket桥接，交易事件(order/fill/risk/portfolio)实时推送到前端 | A | -| **可测试性** | 1077个单元测试，fixture共享，覆盖全模块 | A | +| **可测试性** | 3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例；3339 passed / 3 skipped），fixture共享，覆盖全模块 | A | | **可扩展性** | ABC抽象接口，注册表模式，Strategy模式，插件式因子/优化器/数据源 | A | | **配置管理** | YAML驱动，零硬编码，类型化dataclass验证，环境变量覆盖 | A- | | **性能优化** | 6个Numba JIT内核，prange并行化，Pipeline缓存，向量化回测 | A- | | **代码质量** | 类型注解全覆盖，结构化日志，零pandas警告，DRY抽取共享函数 | B+ | -| **文档** | AGENTS.md完整架构文档，BEGINNER_GUIDE.md，ASHARE_PITFALLS.md，README.md | A | -| **A股实盘处理** | 10大陷阱全处理：前复权/停牌/幸存者偏差/涨跌停/ST/T+1/成本/手数/除权/行业漂移 | A | -| **回测保真度** | 佣金0.03%双边+印花税0.1%单边+滑点+手数约束+T+1执行 | A- | -| **Web服务化** | FastAPI 97端点 + Vue 3 前端 + WebSocket实时推送 + 9个视图 | A | +| **文档** | 文档齐全，但计数/机制宣称曾与代码漂移（2026-10-20 准确性巡检已校正主要计数；计数仍为手工同步） | B | +| **A股实盘处理** | 10大陷阱均有处理或标注；涨跌停/停牌已在回测执行日阻断，整手在向量化回测仍为权重层面：后复权/停牌/幸存者偏差/涨跌停/ST/T+1/成本/手数/除权/行业漂移 | A | +| **回测保真度** | 佣金0.03%双边+印花税(默认0.1%，2023-08-28起法定0.05%可按日期)+滑点+执行日交易性门禁+T+1执行（整手为权重层面） | A- | +| **Web服务化** | FastAPI 99端点 + Vue 3 前端 + WebSocket实时推送 + 10个视图 | A | | **订单管理** | OMS + SimulatedExchange + TCA分析 + A股成本模型 | A- | | **执行算法** | TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg + SmartRouter自动路由 | B+ | | **数据质量** | 8项检查 + 严重性分级 + API端点 | B+ | @@ -1107,19 +1130,19 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 | # | 缺口 | 重要性 | 说明 | |---|------|--------|------| -| 1 | **CI/CD** | ✅ 已完成 | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: pytest + flake8 + frontend build + Docker验证 | +| 1 | **CI/CD** | ✅ 已完成 | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: pytest + ruff + mypy + frontend build + Docker验证（Python 3.11/3.12 矩阵） | | 2 | **容器化** | ✅ 已完成 | `Dockerfile` + `docker-compose.yml`: 一键部署 | | 3 | **密钥管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，敏感信息不入代码 | -| 4 | **依赖管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `requirements.txt` 全部精确版本锁定 | +| 4 | **依赖管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `requirements.txt` 版本锁定（`==`）；例外：`adata>=1.0.0`，仅供 `data.validated` 跨源校验 | | 5 | **监控告警** | ✅ 已完成 | `utils/metrics.py` + `/api/metrics` + `monitoring/grafana_dashboard.json`(16面板) | -| 6 | **MVO稳定性** | 🟡 中 | cvxpy ECOS求解器在部分调仓期崩溃回退等权 | +| 6 | **MVO稳定性** | ✅ 已缓解 | cvxpy 1.7 轮子无 ECOS；改为优先 CLARABEL，并把既有持仓纳入候选集使换手上限可行。默认配置回测 0 次回退（第五轮） | ### 面试视角：如何讲这个项目 **如果面试官问"你这个平台到企业级别了吗？"** 推荐回答： -> "这是一个面向研究+交易的量化平台，架构参考了Jane Street/Citadel的事件驱动设计——EventBus解耦所有组件并桥接WebSocket实时推送，SQLite WAL模式持久化全部状态，有限状态机管理交易生命周期，合规审计记录每个决策。交易引擎集成RiskMonitor做下单前风控检查，5级风险等级+Kill Switch熔断，信号生成用4因子复合(动量+低波+RSI+MACD)替代单一动量。数据层支持PostgreSQL/asyncpg异步存储、WebSocket实时行情推送、Level 2盘口数据、实时基本面获取。Web层有91个API端点和Bloomberg风格仪表盘，实时展示状态机、风控、审计、事件流。如果要在生产环境跑，我会优先加CI/CD自动测试门禁和Docker容器化——这些是工程化问题，不是算法问题，给我一周可以补齐。" +> "这是一个面向研究+交易的量化平台，架构参考了Jane Street/Citadel的事件驱动设计——EventBus解耦运行时核心组件并桥接WebSocket实时推送，SQLite WAL模式持久化全部状态，有限状态机管理交易生命周期，合规审计记录每个决策。交易引擎集成RiskMonitor做下单前风控检查，5级风险等级+Kill Switch熔断，信号生成用同一份 7 因子复合实现(1/3/6月动量+20/60日波动+RSI+MACD，Web 引擎与 CLI 共用)。数据层支持PostgreSQL/asyncpg异步存储、WebSocket实时行情推送、Level 2盘口数据、实时基本面获取。Web层有99个API端点和Bloomberg风格仪表盘，实时展示状态机、风控、审计、事件流。如果要在生产环境跑，我会优先加CI/CD自动测试门禁和Docker容器化——这些是工程化问题，不是算法问题，给我一周可以补齐。" --- @@ -1180,10 +1203,10 @@ class MyAlgorithm: | 优先级 | 优化项 | 说明 | |--------|--------|------| -| ✅ P0 | **CI/CD** | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: Python 3.10/3.11/3.12矩阵 + flake8 + pytest-cov + frontend build + Docker验证 | +| ✅ P0 | **CI/CD** | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: Python 3.11/3.12矩阵 + ruff/mypy + pytest-cov + frontend build + Docker验证 | | ✅ P0 | **Docker** | `Dockerfile` + `docker-compose.yml`: Python 3.12 + Node构建 + 一键部署 | -| ✅ P0 | **依赖锁定** | `requirements.txt` 全部精确版本锁定 (==) | -| ✅ P1 | **密钥管理** | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，`TUSHARE_TOKEN`/`OPENAI_API_KEY`不入代码 | +| ✅ P0 | **依赖锁定** | `requirements.txt` 版本锁定 (==)；`adata>=1.0.0` 为唯一例外（可选跨源校验） | +| ✅ P1 | **密钥管理** | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，`TUSHARE_TOKEN`/`DEEPSEEK_API_KEY`不入代码 | ### Phase 2: 数据层升级 (2周) @@ -1230,7 +1253,7 @@ class MyAlgorithm: |------|------|---------------|------| | 延迟 | WebSocket推送+秒级 | 微秒级(FPGA/内核旁路) | 🟡 中 | | 数据 | 日频+WebSocket行情+L2盘口+实时基本面 | Tick级+Order Book | 🟢 小 | -| 策略 | 4因子+ML+图网络+多策略 | ML/RL/多策略 | 🟢 小 | +| 策略 | 7因子+ML+图网络+多策略 | ML/RL/多策略 | 🟢 小 | | 执行 | TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg+SmartRouter | 自适应+ML优化 | 🟡 中 | | 风控 | 实时流式风控+Kill Switch | 实时流式风控 | 🟢 小 | | 基础设施 | PostgreSQL/asyncpg+SQLite回退 | 分布式+高可用 | 🟡 中 | diff --git a/BEGINNER_GUIDE.md b/BEGINNER_GUIDE.md index 5a92bd0..6d51b00 100644 --- a/BEGINNER_GUIDE.md +++ b/BEGINNER_GUIDE.md @@ -171,7 +171,7 @@ Sharpe = 年化收益率 / 年化波动率 ``` 原始数据 (价格/财务) ↓ -计算 15 个因子 (每只股票每天 15 个特征) +计算默认 21 个因子 (16 技术 + 5 基本面；注册 27 个) ↓ 因子处理 (缩尾去极值 → 标准化 → 行业中性化) ↓ @@ -201,7 +201,7 @@ ICIR 加权合成 (预测力强的因子权重大) 5. **ST 股票**：连续亏损被特殊处理的股票，很多机构不能买 6. **手数限制**：最少买 100 股（1 手） -这些在我们的项目中全部处理了。面试官问你"回测跟实盘有什么区别"，你就可以一条条讲。 +这些在我们的项目中大多已处理：涨跌停/停牌按执行日阻断成交（未成交顺延），ST 用公告日 PIT 掩码，T+1 与成本模型在回测/执行层生效；整手约束在执行层强制，向量化回测仍是权重层面（已明确标注）。面试官问你"回测跟实盘有什么区别"，你就可以一条条讲。 --- @@ -222,7 +222,7 @@ ICIR 加权合成 (预测力强的因子权重大) ▼ ┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ ① Data Layer ② Factor Engine ③ Alpha Model │ -│ 数据获取+清洗 计算15个因子 因子合成→信号 │ +│ 数据获取+清洗 计算21个因子 因子合成→信号 │ │ - Synthetic生成器 - 动量/波动/RSI... - 等权/IC/ICIR │ │ - Tushare实盘 - 缩尾/标准化/中性化 - 排名归一化 │ │ - 停牌/ST/复权 - IC评估 - 输出: signal │ @@ -248,7 +248,7 @@ ICIR 加权合成 (预测力强的因子权重大) ``` quant_platform/ -├── main.py # CLI 入口（6个命令） +├── main.py # CLI 入口（21 个命令） ├── config/default.yaml # 所有参数 │ ├── data/ # ① 数据层 @@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ └── pipeline.py # 数据清洗流水线 │ ├── factors/ # ② 因子引擎 -│ ├── technical.py # 10个技术因子 +│ ├── technical.py # 22个技术因子（默认启用16个） │ ├── fundamental.py # 5个基本面因子 │ ├── processing.py # 因子处理（缩尾/标准化/中性化） │ └── evaluation.py # 因子评估（IC/ICIR） @@ -290,7 +290,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── notebooks/ │ └── research_workflow.ipynb # Jupyter 研究流程 │ -└── tests/ # 1077 个测试 +└── tests/ # 193 个测试文件 / 2,662 条用例 ``` ### 数字一览 @@ -300,11 +300,11 @@ quant_platform/ | 股票数 | 500 只（可调） | | 历史数据 | 5 年 (2021-2025) | | 交易日 | ~1300 天 | -| 因子数 | 15 个标准 + 1 个 LLM | +| 因子数 | 默认 21 个（16 技术 + 5 基本面；注册 27 个）+ 可选 LLM 因子 | | 优化器 | 3 种 | -| 单元测试 | 1077 个 | -| CLI 命令 | 6 个 | -| 代码行数 | ~40,000 行 | +| 单元测试 | 2,662 条用例（2,450 个测试函数，2026-10-20 实测） | +| CLI 命令 | 21 个 | +| 代码行数 | 约 75,000 行非测试 Python + 约 11,000 行 Vue | --- @@ -331,7 +331,7 @@ Step 2: 因子引擎 关键：因子处理流水线（缩尾→标准化→中性化），这是量化的标准操作 Step 3: Alpha 模型 - 问题：15 个因子怎么合成一个信号 + 问题：21 个因子怎么合成一个信号 方案：ICIR 加权——预测力强的因子权重高 关键：横截面排名归一化到 [-0.5, 0.5] @@ -350,7 +350,7 @@ Step 6: 报告 方案：文本仪表盘 + 4 张图表 + CSV 导出 Step 7: 锦上添花 - - Numba 加速（5个计算内核 5-20x 提速） + - Numba 加速（6个计算内核 5-20x 提速） - LLM 情感因子（你的 RAG 经验直接能用！） - Pipeline 缓存（不重复计算） - 策略对比/参数搜索 @@ -362,7 +362,7 @@ Step 7: 锦上添花 A: 事件驱动适合高频，我们做月频多因子，向量化更简单更快。一个月就调一次仓，不需要模拟每一笔订单。 **Q: 为什么默认用合成数据？** -A: 不用联网、不用注册 API、可复现。面试官让你当场跑一下，Tushare 没 token 就尴尬了。合成数据现在内置了 alpha 结构（IC~0.04），演示效果真实。 +A: 不用联网、不用注册 API、可复现。面试官让你当场跑一下，Tushare 没 token 就尴尬了。注意：默认配置开启了 `embedded_alpha`（强度 0.03，IC 约 0.02-0.03），这是演示用的人造信号；做任何策略结论前必须设为 `false`，否则测的是注入的 alpha，不是策略。 **Q: 为什么要做因子中性化？** A: 不做中性化的话，你的"好股票"可能只是某个行业的股票——你不是在选股，是在选行业。 @@ -387,7 +387,7 @@ A: 不做中性化的话，你的"好股票"可能只是某个行业的股票— ```python # 1. 过滤 ST 股票（连续亏损的风险股） # 2. 过滤未上市/已退市股票（幸存者偏差！） -# 3. 处理停牌（短期停牌前向填充，长期停牌剔除） +# 3. 处理停牌（短期停牌前向填充；长期停牌保留缺失、不删除历史） # 4. 复权价格计算（close_adj = close / adj_factor） # 5. 日收益率计算（returns = close_adj.pct_change()） ``` @@ -395,14 +395,14 @@ A: 不做中性化的话，你的"好股票"可能只是某个行业的股票— **TushareProvider（实盘数据）**： ```python # 需要免费注册 tushare.pro 获取 token -# 拉到 CSI 300 成分股的前复权日频数据 +# 拉到 CSI 300 成分股的后复权(hfq)日频数据 # 存到 HDF5 本地缓存，下次秒加载 -# 没有 token 时自动回退到合成数据 +# 配置的真实数据源不可用时默认 fail closed（不会静默回退合成数据） ``` ### 7.2 因子引擎 (`factors/`) -**10 个技术因子**（从价格和成交量算出）： +**技术因子（注册 22 个，`config/default.yaml` 默认启用 16 个）**（从价格和成交量算出）： | 因子名 | 含义 | 怎么算 | |--------|------|--------| @@ -414,9 +414,12 @@ A: 不做中性化的话，你的"好股票"可能只是某个行业的股票— | volatility_60d | 60日波动 | 同上，更长窗口 | | turnover_20d | 换手率 | 20日平均换手率 | | rsi_14d | RSI | 相对强弱指数 (0-100) | -| macd | MACD | 指数平滑异同移动平均线 | +| macd | MACD | 指数平滑异同移动平均线（默认配置未启用） | | amplitude_20d | 振幅 | 20日平均(高-低)/收盘价 | +另有 efficiency_ratio、breakout_ignition、trend_stage、ma_convergence、breakout_proximity、 +pure_volatility、mtf_resonance 及 5 个 K 线形态因子（klen/klow/kmid/ksft/kup），按配置启用。 + **5 个基本面因子**（从财务报表算出）： | 因子名 | 含义 | @@ -448,7 +451,7 @@ A: 不做中性化的话，你的"好股票"可能只是某个行业的股票— ```python # 1. 等权：所有因子平均 -signal = (factor1 + factor2 + ... + factor15) / 15 +signal = (factor1 + factor2 + ... + factor21) / 21 # 2. IC 加权：IC 高的因子权重高 weight_i = IC_i / sum(所有IC) @@ -457,7 +460,7 @@ signal = weight_1 * f1 + weight_2 * f2 + ... # 3. ICIR 加权：IC 稳定（ICIR 高）的因子权重高 weight_i = ICIR_i / sum(所有ICIR) signal = weight_1 * f1 + weight_2 * f2 + ... -# （这是默认方法，因为稳定性也很重要） +# （默认配置是 equal_weight；IC/ICIR 加权可按 alpha.method 启用） ``` 最后做横截面排名归一化到 [-0.5, 0.5]：在所有股票中排名，排名最高的给 0.5，最低的给 -0.5。 @@ -531,7 +534,7 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (继承 BaseFactor) │ ├── SentimentAnalyzer (Strategy 模式，可切换) │ ├── KeywordAnalyzer (默认，零成本，关键词打分) - │ └── OpenAIAnalyzer (真实 API，GPT-4o-mini) + │ └── OpenAIAnalyzer (真实 API，DeepSeek deepseek-chat，OpenAI 兼容 SDK) │ ├── 30 条中文财经标题模板 │ ├── 看涨：净利润同比增长50%、获得大额订单... @@ -545,7 +548,7 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (继承 BaseFactor) 1. 每只股票每天随机生成 0-2 条财经标题（模拟新闻流） 2. 用情感分析器给每条标题打分（-1 = 极度看空，+1 = 极度看多） 3. 取平均作为当天该股票的情感因子值 -4. 这个因子跟其他 15 个因子一起进入 alpha 模型 +4. 这个因子跟其他因子一起进入 alpha 模型 **你怎么扩展**： - 接入真实的新闻 API（东财、同花顺） @@ -565,12 +568,13 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (继承 BaseFactor) # 加速比: ~17x ``` -5 个被加速的计算内核： +6 个被加速的计算内核： 1. 滚动累计收益（动量因子核心） 2. 最大回撤计算 3. 横截面缩尾 4. Spearman Rank IC 5. Ledoit-Wolf 协方差收缩 +6. Z-Score 标准化 每个都有 Pandas + Numba 双实现，Numba 不可用时自动回退。 @@ -582,7 +586,11 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (继承 BaseFactor) ```bash cd quant_platform +python -m venv .venv +.venv\Scripts\activate # Git Bash: source .venv/Scripts/activate pip install -r requirements.txt +pip install -e ./packages/quant_core # core/store.py 依赖它 +pip install -e . # 安装 quant_platform 包 ``` ### 最快体验（30 秒） @@ -594,7 +602,7 @@ python main.py run --force 你会看到： 1. 生成 500 只股票的 5 年数据 -2. 计算 15 个因子并评估 IC +2. 计算默认 21 个因子并评估 IC 3. 合成 alpha 信号 4. 优化持仓权重 5. 回测并输出报告 @@ -642,6 +650,7 @@ python main.py cache list ### Jupyter Notebook ```bash +# 可选：需要先安装 jupyter（pip install jupyter） jupyter notebook notebooks/research_workflow.ipynb ``` @@ -653,21 +662,21 @@ jupyter notebook notebooks/research_workflow.ipynb ### 自我介绍模板（30 秒） -> "我做了一个 A 股多因子量化研究平台。端到端流水线从数据到回测，500 只股票 5 年数据，15 个因子，3 种优化器。1077 个单元测试。特色是 Numba JIT 加速、LLM 情感因子集成、10 个 A 股实盘陷阱全处理。还写了策略对比和参数搜索的 CLI 工具。" +> "我做了一个 A 股多因子量化研究平台。端到端流水线从数据到回测，500 只股票 5 年数据，默认 21 个因子（注册 27 个），3 种优化器。2,662 条测试用例。特色是 Numba JIT 加速、LLM 情感因子集成、10 个 A 股实盘陷阱全部处理或明确标注。还写了策略对比和参数搜索的 CLI 工具。" ### 可能会被问到的问题 **Q: 你的回测跟实盘有什么区别？** -> "我处理了 10 个 A 股特有的实盘陷阱：前复权、停牌、幸存者偏差、涨跌停、ST 过滤、T+1、佣金印花税、手数限制、除权除息、行业漂移。没有做的是高频 order-book 级别的流动性建模，但对月频多因子策略这不是瓶颈。" +> "我处理了 10 个 A 股特有的实盘陷阱：后复权、停牌、幸存者偏差、涨跌停、ST 过滤、T+1、佣金印花税、手数限制、除权除息、行业漂移。涨跌停/停牌按执行日阻断成交，整手在执行层强制、向量化回测仍是权重层面。没有做的是高频 order-book 级别的流动性建模，但对月频多因子策略这不是瓶颈。" **Q: IC 是什么意思？为什么重要？** > "Information Coefficient，因子值跟未来收益的秩相关系数。IC > 0.03 说明因子有预测力。为什么用 Rank IC 而不是 Pearson IC？因为 Rank IC 对异常值不敏感，更稳健。" **Q: 你怎么防止过拟合？** -> "1) 因子只有 15 个，没有做因子挖掘（没有挖几万个因子然后挑显著的）；2) 因子经济逻辑清晰——动量、价值、波动率都有学术支撑；3) ICIR 加权——不仅看 IC 大小还看稳定性；4) 横截面中性化防止了行业和市值的虚假相关。" +> "1) 因子只有 21 个（注册 27 个），没有做因子挖掘（没有挖几万个因子然后挑显著的）；2) 因子经济逻辑清晰——动量、价值、波动率都有学术支撑；3) 默认等权合成，IC/ICIR 加权可选——不仅看 IC 大小还看稳定性；4) 横截面中性化防止了行业和市值的虚假相关。" **Q: 你怎么做 LLM 集成的？** -> "写了一个 LLMSentimentFactor，继承 BaseFactor。用 Strategy 模式隔离了分析器：默认用关键词打分（零成本），可以切换到 OpenAI API。有 JSON 缓存避免重复调用。这个因子跟传统 15 个因子一起进入 alpha 流水线。" +> "写了一个 LLMSentimentFactor，继承 BaseFactor。用 Strategy 模式隔离了分析器：默认用关键词打分（零成本），可以切换到 DeepSeek（OpenAI 兼容接口，需 DEEPSEEK_API_KEY）。有 JSON 缓存避免重复调用。这个因子跟传统 21 个因子一起进入 alpha 流水线（默认因子集不包含它，需显式启用）。" > > （这是你的强项，可以展开聊 RAG pipeline 怎么改造） @@ -678,7 +687,7 @@ jupyter notebook notebooks/research_workflow.ipynb 如果面试官发现你的策略 Sharpe 不高或回测有问题： -> "合成数据的 IC 在 0.04 左右，这是真实可信的水平。实盘 A 股多因子策略的 Sharpe 一般在 1-2 之间。超过 3 要么是天才要么有过拟合。MVO 优化器在股票数多的时候会用等权回退——这是工程上的诚实处理，不是把崩溃藏起来。" +> "合成数据的 IC 在 0.02-0.03 左右（alpha_strength=0.03），这是接近真实 A 股的信噪比水平；演示配置会注入 embedded_alpha，做结论前必须关掉。实盘 A 股多因子策略的 Sharpe 一般在 1-2 之间。超过 3 要么是天才要么有过拟合。MVO 现在优先用已安装的 CLARABEL 求解并把持仓纳入候选集，默认回测 0 次回退；如果求解失败会显式记录回退原因，而不是静默等权。" --- @@ -689,7 +698,7 @@ jupyter notebook notebooks/research_workflow.ipynb | Agent/RAG 技能 | 量化对应 | |---------------|---------| | Python 数据处理 | pandas 操作股价数据 | -| API 调用 | Tushare / OpenAI API | +| API 调用 | Tushare / DeepSeek API | | 检索管道 | 因子计算流水线 | | 结果排序 | Alpha 信号排名 | | 评估指标 | IC / Sharpe / 回撤 | diff --git a/CLAUDE.md b/CLAUDE.md index 3dfd3e9..b0cd53f 100644 --- a/CLAUDE.md +++ b/CLAUDE.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ > **一句话**：A股多因子量化研究+交易平台，从数据到回测到执行的完整流水线。面向量化开发面试，展示架构设计、性能优化、真实市场处理、LLM增强选股、ML信号、图网络因子、Barra风险模型、Prometheus监控、机构级风控和执行。 -**最终状态**：1077 单元测试全部通过。96个Python模块 + 37个Vue组件。30,000+行Python + 9,800+行Vue。6个Numba JIT内核加速。**97 REST API端点**。**事件驱动核心架构 + 实时风控熔断 + 多因子信号 + WebSocket实时推送 + 实时A股行情 + Level 2盘口 + 实时基本面 + PostgreSQL存储 + Paper Trading(延迟/部分成交/撤单失败/L2回放) + QMT/XTP实盘接口 + 合规导出 + 基金运营(NAV/投资者门户) + 跨资产接口(股票/ETF/期货/期权)**。**企业级就绪度评估：A（生产级研究+交易平台）**——详见[企业级就绪度评估](#企业级就绪度评估)。 +**最终状态（2026-10-22 实测）**：3,028 个测试函数（3,342 条用例；2026-10-21 全量 3339 passed / 3 skipped；基线 8f8caec 为 2709 passed / 3 skipped）。约 233 个非测试 Python 文件 + 236 个测试文件 + 37 个 Vue 组件。约 75,000 行非测试 Python + 约 11,000 行 Vue。6 个 Numba JIT 内核加速。**99 个 HTTP 端点 + 1 个 WebSocket**。**事件驱动核心架构 + 实时风控熔断 + 多因子信号 + WebSocket实时推送 + 实时A股行情 + Level 2盘口 + 实时基本面 + PostgreSQL存储 + Paper Trading(延迟/部分成交/撤单失败/L2回放) + QMT/XTP实盘接口 + 合规导出 + 基金运营(NAV/投资者门户) + 跨资产接口(股票/ETF/期货/期权)**。**企业级就绪度评估：A（生产级研究+交易平台）**——详见[企业级就绪度评估](#企业级就绪度评估)。 --- @@ -33,13 +33,13 @@ │ EventBus · Store · StateMachine · Audit │ │ Scheduler · RiskMonitor · CircuitBreaker │ └──────────────┬──────────────────────────────┘ - │ 所有组件通过EventBus通信 - │ 所有状态通过Store持久化 - │ 所有决策通过AuditLog记录 + │ 运行时核心（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）通过 EventBus 通信 + │ 运行时状态通过Store持久化 + │ 运行时决策通过AuditLog记录 ┌──────────────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────────────┐ v v v Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer -(价格+财务) (15个因子) (信号生成) (MVO/RP/EW) +(价格+财务) (默认21个因子) (信号生成) (MVO/RP/EW) | v Backtest Engine --> Risk Module --> Execution Layer @@ -51,13 +51,13 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer | v Web Dashboard (Vue 3 + ECharts) - REST API (97 endpoints) + REST API (99 HTTP endpoints + 1 WebSocket) WebSocket (实时推送) ``` **核心设计原则**： -- **事件驱动架构**：EventBus解耦所有组件，topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配，死信队列 -- **全状态持久化**：SQLite WAL模式，8张表（orders/positions/trades/pnl/signals/sessions/events/config） +- **事件驱动架构**：EventBus解耦运行时核心组件，topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配，死信队列（研究流水线为直接调用） +- **全状态持久化**：SQLite WAL模式，11张表（orders/positions/trades/pnl_history/signals/sessions/events/config_snapshots/nav_history/engine_state/eod_reconciliation） - **状态机管理**：8个生命周期状态，合法转换强制校验，entry/exit hooks - **合规审计**：每个信号/下单/成交/状态变更都记录 who/what/when/why/result - **ABC 抽象接口**：DataProvider / BaseFactor / PortfolioOptimizer 全部可插拔 @@ -77,11 +77,11 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer 输出: prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials [2/6] Factors - FactorEngine 计算 15 个原始因子 → 横截面处理 (缩尾/标准化/中性化) → IC 评估 + FactorEngine 计算默认 21 个因子（16 技术 + 5 基本面；注册 27 个）→ 横截面处理 (缩尾/标准化/中性化) → IC 评估 输出: processed_factors, ic_results [3/6] Alpha - AlphaPipeline 合成因子 (ICIR加权) → 横截面排名归一化 + AlphaPipeline 合成因子 (默认 equal_weight，可切换 IC/ICIR 加权) → 横截面排名归一化 输出: signal (date × asset, 越大越有吸引力) [4/6] Portfolio (嵌入回测) @@ -104,11 +104,11 @@ Data Layer --> Factor Engine --> Alpha Model --> Portfolio Optimizer ``` quant_platform/ │ -├── .github/workflows/ci.yml # CI/CD: pytest + lint + build gate (Python 3.10/3.11/3.12) +├── .github/workflows/ci.yml # CI/CD: pytest + lint + build gate (Python 3.11/3.12；ruff + mypy) ├── Dockerfile # Docker: Python 3.12 + Node + one-click deploy ├── docker-compose.yml # Docker Compose: API + volumes ├── .env.example # Environment variables template -├── main.py # CLI入口: run / analyze / compare / sweep / cache / web +├── main.py # CLI入口: 21个命令 (run/trade/data/.../profile) ├── app.py # FastAPI应用入口 ├── requirements.txt # Python依赖 ├── config/ @@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── core/ # ★ 核心架构层 │ ├── __init__.py # 模块说明 │ ├── events.py # EventBus: topic pub/sub, 通配符, 拦截器, 死信队列, 环形缓冲 -│ ├── store.py # SQLite持久化: WAL模式, 8张表, 线程安全, 索引优化 +│ ├── store.py # SQLite持久化: WAL模式, 11张表, 线程安全, 索引优化 │ ├── state_machine.py # PortfolioStateMachine: 8状态, 合法转换, entry/exit hooks │ ├── scheduler.py # TradingScheduler: A股开市时间, 自动状态切换, EOD对账 │ ├── context.py # TenantContext: 协程安全的多租户上下文 (contextvars) @@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── providers/ │ │ ├── base.py # DataProvider ABC │ │ ├── synthetic.py # 合成A股数据生成器 (500只/5年/可复现) -│ │ ├── tushare_loader.py # Tushare Pro实盘数据 (CSI300/前复权/HDF5缓存) +│ │ ├── tushare_loader.py # Tushare Pro实盘数据 (CSI300/后复权hfq/HDF5缓存) │ │ ├── baostock_provider.py # Baostock免费A股数据 (无需API key) │ │ ├── postgres_provider.py # PostgreSQL/TimescaleDB: SQLAlchemy连接池+asyncpg异步+SQLite自动回退 │ │ ├── websocket_provider.py # WebSocket实时行情: 东方财富/新浪推送+SimulatedWebSocketProvider测试 @@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── factors/ # 因子引擎 │ ├── base.py # BaseFactor ABC + FactorResult + FactorCategory │ ├── registry.py # 单例因子注册表 -│ ├── technical.py # 10个技术因子 (动量/波动/换手/RSI/MACD/振幅) +│ ├── technical.py # 22个技术因子 (默认启用16个: 动量/波动/换手/RSI/振幅等) │ ├── fundamental.py # 5个基本面因子 (市值/PB/PE/ROE/资产增长) │ ├── processing.py # 横截面: 缩尾→标准化→行业+市值中性化 │ ├── evaluation.py # Rank IC / Pearson IC / ICIR / 分位数收益 / 相关性 / IC衰减 @@ -168,7 +168,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── backtest/ # 回测引擎 │ ├── engine.py # 向量化多期回测/月频调仓/持仓漂移 -│ ├── cost_model.py # A股成本: 佣金0.03%/印花税0.1%(卖)/滑点 +│ ├── cost_model.py # A股成本: 佣金0.03%/印花税(默认0.1%卖；2023-08-28起法定0.05%可按日期)/滑点 │ ├── metrics.py # Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar/最大回撤/IR/胜率/盈亏比 │ ├── walkforward.py # Walk-Forward验证: 滚动/扩展窗口OOS测试+稳定性分析 │ ├── distributed.py # 并行回测: ProcessPoolExecutor参数扫描+多策略对比 @@ -197,7 +197,7 @@ quant_platform/ ├── operations/ # 基金运营模块 │ ├── __init__.py # 模块说明 -│ ├── nav.py # NAVCalculator: 日频净值计算, 管理费(年化/252), 业绩报酬(高水位法) +│ ├── nav.py # NAVCalculator: 日频净值计算, 管理费(年化/365, 日历天计提), 业绩报酬(高水位法) │ └── investor.py # InvestorPortal: 投资人视图(净值曲线/收益/回撤/Sharpe/月度收益矩阵) │ ├── trading/ # 实盘交易 ★ 核心模块 @@ -223,7 +223,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ └── research_agent.py # RAG研究Agent: 研报信号提取+因子假设生成+归因分析+风险叙述 │ ├── api/ # Web API层 -│ ├── routes.py # FastAPI路由: 97端点 (2,159行) +│ ├── routes.py # FastAPI路由: 93个HTTP端点 (4,949行) │ ├── monitor.py # 监控聚合API: 6端点 (风控/TCA/因子/容量/配置/Kill Switch) │ └── schemas.py # Pydantic请求/响应模型 │ @@ -237,10 +237,10 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── frontend/ # Vue 3 前端 │ ├── src/ -│ │ ├── App.vue # 根组件: 8个视图路由 +│ │ ├── App.vue # 根组件: 10个视图路由 │ │ ├── api/index.js # Axios API层: 35+函数 + WebSocket -│ │ └── components/ # 35个Vue组件 (9,140行) -│ │ ├── TerminalDashboard.vue # 主仪表盘: 11行×20+面板Bloomberg布局 +│ │ └── components/ # 37个Vue组件 (约11,000行) +│ │ ├── TerminalDashboard.vue # 主仪表盘: 12行×20+面板Bloomberg布局 │ │ ├── KpiStrip.vue # KPI指标条 │ │ ├── Panel.vue # 通用面板容器 │ │ ├── FactorHeatmap.vue # 因子IC热力图 @@ -277,7 +277,7 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── package.json │ └── vite.config.js │ -├── tests/ # 1077个单元测试 +├── tests/ # 236个测试文件, 3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例） │ ├── conftest.py # 共享fixtures │ ├── test_data/ # 合成数据(9) + pipeline(5) + 质量(7) + 连接池(11) + PostgreSQL(10) + WebSocket(18) + Level2(22) + 基本面(23) = 105 │ ├── test_factors/ # 技术(6) + 基本面(5) + 处理(5) + 评估(7) + IC监控(12) + 网络(17) + 正交化(18) + 择时(25) = 95 @@ -309,12 +309,12 @@ quant_platform/ ### Core Architecture (`core/`) ★ 企业级基础设施 -**这是整个平台的神经系统。所有组件通过 EventBus 通信，所有状态通过 Store 持久化，所有决策通过 AuditLog 记录。** +**这是整个平台的神经系统。运行时核心组件（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）通过 EventBus 通信，运行时状态通过 Store 持久化，运行时决策通过 AuditLog 记录；研究流水线（因子→Alpha→回测）为直接函数调用。** | 模块 | 功能 | |------|------| | `events.py` | EventBus：topic-based pub/sub，通配符匹配(`market.*`)，拦截器链，死信队列，环形缓冲历史，全局单例 | -| `store.py` | SQLite持久化：WAL模式并发读写，8张表(orders/positions/trades/pnl/signals/sessions/events/config)，线程锁保护 | +| `store.py` | SQLite持久化：WAL模式并发读写，11张表(orders/positions/trades/pnl_history/signals/sessions/events/config_snapshots/nav_history/engine_state/eod_reconciliation)，线程锁保护 | | `state_machine.py` | PortfolioStateMachine：INIT→READY→PRE_MARKET→TRADING→REBALANCING→POST_MARKET→HALTED→ERROR，合法转换强制校验 | | `scheduler.py` | TradingScheduler：A股开市时间(9:30-11:30, 13:00-15:00)，自动状态切换，EOD对账，再平衡调度 | | `audit.py` | AuditLog：每个信号/下单/成交/状态变更记录 who/what/when/why/result，三路输出(SQLite+EventBus+Logger) | @@ -339,7 +339,7 @@ bus.get_history(topic="order.*", limit=50) # 事件历史 bus.get_metrics() # 发布/订阅统计 ``` -**Store 8张表**： +**Store 11张表**： | 表 | 主键 | 内容 | |----|------|------| | orders | order_id | 订单全生命周期(创建→提交→成交/拒绝) | @@ -350,6 +350,9 @@ bus.get_metrics() # 发布/订阅统计 | sessions | session_id | 交易会话记录(开始/结束/总交易数) | | events | id | 事件审计日志(topic/data/source/timestamp) | | config_snapshots | id | 配置快照(配置变更追踪) | +| nav_history | date | 基金运营 NAV 历史(净值/份额/费用/高水位) | +| engine_state | strategy_id | 实盘/调度器状态快照(重启恢复) | +| eod_reconciliation | date | EOD 对账幂等标记(每交易日一次) | **状态机转换图**： ``` @@ -360,8 +363,8 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING │ v READY -任何状态 ──> HALTED (风险熔断/手动停止) -任何状态 ──> ERROR (不可恢复错误) +TRADING / REBALANCING ──> HALTED；运行态 ──> ERROR。 +（以 core/state_machine.py 的转换表为准，POST_MARKET 不能直接进入 HALTED） ``` ### Data Layer (`data/`) @@ -369,9 +372,9 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING | 文件 | 职责 | |------|------| | `providers/base.py` | DataProvider ABC：定义 `get_prices()` / `get_financials()` / `get_benchmark()` / `get_metadata()` | -| `providers/synthetic.py` | 500只A股合成数据，5年历史。三因子模型(市场+行业+异质)生成日收益。**含嵌入式alpha**：动量效应(IC~0.025)、价值效应、规模效应。支持停牌、涨跌停、前复权、ST标记 | -| `providers/tushare_loader.py` | Tushare Pro 实盘数据。CSI 300 成分股、前复权(qfq)、HDF5本地缓存。无token时自动回退到合成数据 | -| `providers/baostock_provider.py` | Baostock 免费A股数据。无需API key，支持日/周/月频，前复权，实时行情 | +| `providers/synthetic.py` | 500只A股合成数据，5年历史。三因子模型(市场+行业+异质)生成日收益。**含嵌入式alpha（默认开启，仅演示）**：动量效应(IC~0.025)、价值效应、规模效应。支持停牌、涨跌停、后复权、ST标记 | +| `providers/tushare_loader.py` | Tushare Pro 实盘数据。CSI 300 成分股（含历史成分与退市名单）、后复权(hfq)、HDF5本地缓存。配置的真实源不可用时默认 fail closed；仅 `--allow-synthetic-fallback` 显式允许回退 | +| `providers/baostock_provider.py` | Baostock 免费A股数据。无需API key，支持日/周/月频，后复权(hfq)，含退市名单，实时行情 | | `pipeline.py` | ETL流水线：ST过滤、停牌处理(前向填充≤30天)、复权价格计算、日收益率计算 | | `schema.py` | 28个申万行业分类、字段验证、市值分组 | | `quality.py` | DataQualityMonitor：8项数据完整性检查 + 严重性分级(info/warn/error/critical) + 质量报告 | @@ -382,7 +385,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING ### Factor Engine (`factors/`) -**10 个技术因子**： +**技术因子（注册 22 个；`config/default.yaml` 默认启用 16 个）**： | 因子 | 参数 | 说明 | |------|------|------| @@ -394,9 +397,12 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING | volatility_60d | period=60 | 60日波动率 | | turnover_20d | period=20 | 20日平均换手率 | | rsi_14d | period=14 | 相对强弱指数 | -| macd | fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | MACD 离差值 | +| macd | fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | MACD 离差值（默认配置未启用） | | amplitude_20d | period=20 | 20日平均振幅 | +另有 efficiency_ratio、breakout_ignition、trend_stage、ma_convergence、breakout_proximity、 +pure_volatility、mtf_resonance 及 5 个 K 线形态因子（klen/klow/kmid/ksft/kup），按配置启用。 + **5 个基本面因子**：log_market_cap / pb_ratio / pe_ratio / roe / asset_growth **因子处理流水线**（横截面，每日期）： @@ -463,7 +469,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING 1. 每月最后一个交易日计算目标权重 2. 次交易日收盘执行 3. 持有期间权重随价格漂移 -4. 调仓日扣除：佣金 0.03%(双边) + 印花税 0.1%(仅卖出) + 滑点 +4. 调仓日扣除：佣金 0.03%(双边) + 印花税(默认配置 0.1% 仅卖出；CostModel 支持 2023-08-28 起法定 0.05% 的按日期税率) + 滑点；执行日按 `tradable_mask`/涨跌停门禁阻断不可成交的买卖 基准：等权组合或市值加权 @@ -496,7 +502,7 @@ INIT ──> READY ──> PRE_MARKET ──> TRADING <──> REBALANCING ### Monitor Dashboard (`api/monitor.py` + `MonitorDashboard.vue`) -Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： +Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板；TCA / Factor / Capacity 由有界研究上下文现算（TTL 缓存、饱和 429），确实无数据（如无成交）时返回 `available:false` 及原因（前端显示不可用，不伪造数据）；Risk Dashboard 的因子暴露来自同一 Barra 计算： | 面板 | 数据源 | 展示内容 | |------|--------|---------| @@ -507,7 +513,7 @@ Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： | **Risk Config** | RiskMonitor.limits | 风控限额表单(仓位/行业/回撤/日亏) + Kill Switch按钮 | | **Factor Alerts** | FactorICAutoDecay | 因子IC/ICIR/趋势/状态表 + 自动降权因子列表 | -**API端点**: `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview|tca-summary|factor-status|capacity-gauge` + `POST /api/monitor/config|kill-switch` +**API端点**: `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview|tca-summary|factor-status|capacity-gauge` + `POST /api/monitor/config|kill-switch`（tca-summary/factor-status/capacity-gauge 由有界研究上下文现算，无成交/行情时明确 `available:false`） **前端**: 15秒轮询刷新 + ECharts图表(雷达/折线/柱状/仪表盘/瀑布) + Kill Switch确认弹窗 @@ -541,7 +547,7 @@ Bloomberg Terminal风格监控大屏，6个面板实时展示： | 模块 | 功能 | |------|------| -| `nav.py` | NAVCalculator：日频净值计算，管理费(年化/252)，业绩报酬(高水位法，仅超HWM部分收取)，NAV/单位净值/总份额/高水位追踪 | +| `nav.py` | NAVCalculator：日频净值计算，管理费(年化/365, 日历天计提)，业绩报酬(高水位法，仅超HWM部分收取)，NAV/单位净值/总份额/高水位追踪 | | `investor.py` | InvestorPortal：投资人视图(净值曲线/累计收益/年化收益/最大回撤/Sharpe/波动率/月度收益矩阵)，隐藏持仓/因子/信号细节 | ### Live Trading (`trading/`) @@ -561,7 +567,7 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 **风控集成**：每笔下单前经过RiskMonitor.check_pre_trade()——仓位限额(5%)、行业集中度(30%)、日亏损限额(3%)、回撤熔断(15%警告/25%Kill Switch)、订单频率限制(50/min)。Kill Switch激活后自动阻断所有订单。 -**多因子信号**：不再使用单一动量，而是4因子等权复合——3个月动量(趋势) + 低波动率(质量) + RSI反转(均值回归) + MACD(动量确认)。因子引擎15个因子全部可接入。 +**多因子信号**：`LiveTradingEngine`（Web API 启动）使用 7 因子等权复合——1/3/6个月动量 + 20/60日波动率 + RSI + MACD；因子引擎默认启用21个因子（注册27个）。CLI `main.py trade` 的 `LiveRunner` 与 Web 引擎共用 `trading/signals.py` 的同一 7 因子复合（横截面百分位 [0,1]，阈值 0.3），同一段历史得到逐点相同的分数与排名。 **WebSocket实时推送**：EventBus事件(order.filled/portfolio.snapshot/risk.status等)自动桥接到WebSocket，前端实时接收交易事件流，无需轮询。 @@ -571,6 +577,8 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 - 支持国金/华鑫/国盛/东方财富等券商免费miniQMT - 异步回调模式：on_order_error / on_stock_position - 代码格式自动转换：600519 ↔ 600519.SH +- 连接失败直接中止（fail closed），**不会回退 SimulatedBroker** +- 真实券商每次运行只支持 1 个交易所日（`--days 1`），且必须提供真实行情 feed；拒绝把合成价格喂给实盘订单 ### Multi-Strategy (`strategy/`) @@ -598,12 +606,12 @@ AKShare实时行情 → 多因子信号(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD) → 目标组 LLMSentimentFactor (BaseFactor子类) ├── SentimentAnalyzer (Strategy模式) │ ├── KeywordSentimentAnalyzer (默认，零成本，关键词打分) - │ └── OpenAISentimentAnalyzer (真实API，GPT-4o-mini) + │ └── OpenAISentimentAnalyzer (真实API，deepseek-chat（OpenAI-compatible）) ├── 30条中文财经标题模板 (看涨/看跌/中性) └── JSON本地缓存 (TTL机制) ``` -作为第16个因子集成到 alpha pipeline。 +作为可选因子集成到 alpha pipeline（默认因子集不包含它）。 **ResearchAgent** — RAG风格的LLM研究Agent，展示Agent/RAG技能如何迁移到量化。 @@ -612,7 +620,7 @@ LLMSentimentFactor (BaseFactor子类) ResearchAgent ├── extract_signals_from_text() 研报/公告 → 结构化交易信号 │ └── keyword模式: 正则提取财务指标 + 关键词情感 - │ └── llm模式: GPT-4o-mini结构化抽取 + │ └── llm模式: deepseek-chat（OpenAI-compatible）结构化抽取 ├── generate_hypotheses() 市场叙事 → 因子假设 │ └── 主题关键词 → 因子映射 (资金流入→turnover, 业绩→roe...) ├── summarize_attribution() 因子贡献 → 中文归因报告 @@ -636,7 +644,7 @@ SQLite替代方案，连接池+异步支持： - SQLAlchemy连接池(QueuePool, pool_size=5, max_overflow=10) - asyncpg异步版本(AsyncPostgresStore)用于高吞吐流水线 - ORM模型：OrderRow/PositionRow/PnLRow/TradeRow/SignalRow -- 自动回退：PostgreSQL不可用时无缝降级到SQLite +- 存储层回退：`PostgresStore` 在 PostgreSQL 不可用时降级到 SQLite；但 `PostgresDataProvider`（数据读取）连接失败会抛 `ConnectionError`，不会静默伪装成真实数据 - `PostgresDataProvider` 实现 DataProvider ABC，读取OHLCV/财务/基准/元数据 ### WebSocket实时行情 (`data/providers/websocket_provider.py`) @@ -684,8 +692,8 @@ PE/PB/ROE等基本面指标实时获取： **PipelineCache** (`utils/cache.py`)： - 基于配置哈希的确定性缓存键 - 缓存数据流水线结果，避免重复计算 -- `python main.py run --force` 跳过缓存 -- `python main.py cache list/clear` 管理缓存 +- `python main.py run --force` 重算并原子覆盖缓存（`--no-cache` 才是既不读也不写） +- `python main.py cache list` / `python main.py cache clear` / `python main.py cache refresh` 管理缓存 **Prometheus指标** (`utils/metrics.py`)： - 轻量级无依赖 Prometheus 指标收集器 @@ -708,18 +716,30 @@ PE/PB/ROE等基本面指标实时获取： ### 启动方式 ```bash -# FastAPI + Vue 静态文件 (生产模式) +# 生产模式：FastAPI + 已构建的 Vue 静态文件 python main.py web -# 独立启动 (开发模式) -python app.py +# 前端必须先构建（Node 22；frontend/dist 已 gitignore，不随仓库分发） +cd frontend && npm ci && npm run build && cd .. +# 没有 dist 时 main.py web 仍可启动，但只提供 API + +# 前端开发模式：Vite 5173，/api 代理到 127.0.0.1:8000 +cd frontend && npm run dev ``` -### API端点总览 (97) +> `python app.py` 不是 Vite 开发服务器；它启动的是同一个 FastAPI 应用（含静态文件挂载）。 +> 远程访问需设置 `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 并在 UI Settings 填入同一 token；未设置时所有 `/api` +> （除 `/api/health`）仅允许回环访问。Docker 中 `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 必填（compose 用 `:?` 强制）。 + +### API端点总览 (99 HTTP + 1 WebSocket) + +> 分析/监控端点从有界 TTL 缓存的研究上下文现算；无数据（如无成交、样本过短）时返回 `available:false` 及原因； +> 不要把它们当作已实现的分析能力宣传。 | 类别 | 端点 | 说明 | |------|------|------| | **核心** | `GET /api/health` | 健康检查 | +| | `GET /api/readiness` | 就绪探针（心跳/数据新鲜度；503 = degraded） | | | `GET /api/config` | 获取配置 | | | `POST /api/run` | 运行pipeline | | | `GET /api/run/{id}/status` | 查询运行状态 | @@ -729,11 +749,11 @@ python app.py | | `GET /api/runs` | 历史运行列表 | | **分析** | `POST /api/compare` | 多策略对比 | | | `POST /api/sweep` | 参数网格搜索 | -| | `GET /api/analysis/ic-decay` | IC衰减曲线 | -| | `GET /api/analysis/correlation` | 因子相关矩阵 | -| **高级** | `POST /api/walkforward` | Walk-Forward验证 | +| | `GET /api/analysis/ic-decay` | IC衰减曲线——因子面板+前向收益现算（horizon 1/5/10/20，含 n） | +| | `GET /api/analysis/correlation` | 因子相关矩阵——处理后的因子面板现算（方阵/对称，NaN 政策已文档化） | +| **高级** | `POST /api/walkforward` | Walk-Forward验证——真实 validator 现算，每折 train-only 重算信号，仅取 OOS 窗口 | | | `POST /api/montecarlo` | 蒙特卡洛模拟 | -| | `POST /api/risk/decompose` | 因子风险分解 | +| | `POST /api/risk/decompose` | 因子风险分解——与 `/api/barra/decompose` 共用同一 Barra 计算，Euler 风险份额合计为 1 | | | `POST /api/regime/detect` | 行情状态检测 | | | `POST /api/report/html` | 生成HTML报告 | | **OMS** | `POST /api/oms/order` | 创建订单 | @@ -790,19 +810,19 @@ python app.py | **监控** | `GET /api/metrics` | Prometheus指标(text格式) | | | `GET /api/metrics/json` | 系统指标(JSON) | | **Monitor大屏** | `GET /api/monitor/risk-overview` | 风控概览(因子暴露/集中度/回撤/VaR) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/tca-summary` | TCA统计(IS/延迟/冲击/滑点分解) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/factor-status` | 因子状态(滚动IC/归因/衰减告警) | -| | `GET /api/monitor/capacity-gauge` | 策略容量(AUM/容量曲线/参与率) | +| | `GET /api/monitor/tca-summary` | TCA统计——存储成交+订单参考价现算实现落差；无成交时明确 `available:false` | +| | `GET /api/monitor/factor-status` | 因子状态——滚动 IC/ICIR/衰减现算；样本不足时说明所需会话数 | +| | `GET /api/monitor/capacity-gauge` | 策略容量——ADV 参与率假设下的容量曲线现算；无成交量数据时明确 `available:false` | | | `POST /api/monitor/config` | 风控限额更新 | | | `POST /api/monitor/kill-switch` | Kill Switch触发 | | **PostgreSQL** | `GET /api/postgres/stats` | PostgreSQL存储统计(SQLite回退) | -| **WebSocket行情** | `GET /api/ws-quotes/start` | 启动WebSocket行情服务 | -| | `GET /api/ws-quotes/stop` | 停止WebSocket行情服务 | +| **WebSocket行情** | `POST /api/ws-quotes/start` | 启动WebSocket行情服务 | +| | `POST /api/ws-quotes/stop` | 停止WebSocket行情服务 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes/stats` | WebSocket连接统计 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes/{code}` | 个股实时报价 | | | `GET /api/ws-quotes` | 所有缓存报价 | -| **Level 2盘口** | `GET /api/l2/start` | 启动Level 2数据服务 | -| | `GET /api/l2/stop` | 停止Level 2服务 | +| **Level 2盘口** | `POST /api/l2/start` | 启动Level 2数据服务 | +| | `POST /api/l2/stop` | 停止Level 2服务 | | | `GET /api/l2/stats` | Level 2统计 | | | `GET /api/l2/book/{code}` | 10档订单簿 | | | `GET /api/l2/ticks/{code}` | 逐笔成交数据 | @@ -814,11 +834,11 @@ python app.py | | `POST /api/fundamentals/rank` | 基本面排名 | | | `GET /api/fundamentals/stats` | 基本面服务统计 | -### 前端视图 (8个) +### 前端视图 (10个) | 视图 | 组件 | 功能 | |------|------|------| -| **Terminal** | TerminalDashboard (11行×20+面板) | Bloomberg Terminal风格主仪表盘 | +| **Terminal** | TerminalDashboard (12行×20+面板) | Bloomberg Terminal风格主仪表盘 | | **Trading** | LiveTrading | 实盘交易引擎：Paper Trading + QMT实盘 + 实时行情 + 持仓P&L + 状态机 + 风控面板 + 审计日志 + 事件流 | | **Live** | LivePortfolio | 实时组合追踪 (Baostock) | | **OMS** | OrderBlotter | 订单管理+持仓+TCA | @@ -829,7 +849,7 @@ python app.py | **Settings** | SettingsPage | 配置管理 | | **Monitor** | MonitorDashboard | Bloomberg风格监控大屏：风控/TCA/因子/容量/配置6面板 | -### TerminalDashboard 面板布局 (11行) +### TerminalDashboard 面板布局 (12行) ``` Row 0: KPI Strip (12个指标卡) @@ -838,13 +858,13 @@ Row 2: Factor IC Heatmap + Risk Gauges + Portfolio Exposure Row 3: Return Distribution + Excess Cumulative + Top Holdings Row 4: Factor Scatter + P&L Attribution + Turnover Row 5: Drawdown Periods Table -Row 6: Factor Correlation + IC Decay -Row 7: Monthly Returns Heatmap + Rolling Sharpe -Row 8: Walk-Forward + Monte Carlo + Risk Decomposition -Row 9: Market Regime + Risk Monitor -Row 10: Multi-Strategy + Data Quality -Row 11: HTML Report Download Bar -Row 12: System Log +Row 5b: Factor Correlation + IC Decay +Row 6: Monthly Returns Heatmap + Rolling Sharpe +Row 7: Walk-Forward + Monte Carlo + Risk Decomposition +Row 8: Market Regime + Risk Monitor +Row 9: Multi-Strategy + Data Quality + Report +Row 10: Report Generation +Row 11: System Log ``` --- @@ -903,10 +923,14 @@ python main.py sweep --optimizers equal_weight,mean_variance --frequencies month # 分析已有结果 python main.py analyze --results-dir ./results -# 查看/清除缓存 +# 查看/刷新/清除缓存 python main.py cache list +python main.py cache refresh python main.py cache clear +# 数据保留（归档后删除超过保留期的行） +python main.py data retention --archive-dir ./archive + # ML Alpha信号 python main.py ml train --model lightgbm # 训练ML模型+展示性能 python main.py ml signal --model xgboost # 生成ML信号+Top/Bottom股票 @@ -921,9 +945,9 @@ python main.py profile # 各阶段耗时条形图 python main.py trade # 30天仿真，默认5只蓝筹 python main.py trade --broker paper --days 60 --cash 5000000 -# QMT实盘 (需miniQMT + xtquant已安装) +# QMT实盘 (需miniQMT + xtquant已安装；真实券商每次运行只支持 1 个交易所日) export QMT_PASSWORD="your_password" -python main.py trade --broker qmt --universe "600519,000858,000001" --days 30 +python main.py trade --broker qmt --universe "600519,000858,000001" --days 1 # 启动Web服务 python main.py web @@ -968,18 +992,18 @@ risk.var.method: "historical" | "parametric" | "monte_carlo" | # | 陷阱 | 处理方案 | |---|------|---------| -| 1 | **复权** | Tushare 取前复权(qfq)；合成数据生成 `adj_factor`，计算 `close_adj` | -| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌移出股票池 | +| 1 | **复权** | Tushare/Baostock 取后复权(hfq)；合成数据生成 `adj_factor`，计算 `close_adj` | +| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌保留历史、缺口保持 NaN（不整段删除）；停牌日 `tradable_mask=False` | | 3 | **幸存者偏差** | 跟踪上市/退市日期，时间点股票池构建，不偷看未来成分股 | -| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记涨跌停标志；成本模型加额外滑点 | -| 5 | **ST股票** | `is_st` 标记，默认排除(±5%涨跌停/高退市风险/低流动性) | +| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记 `is_limit_up/down`；回测在**执行日**阻断涨停买入/跌停卖出，未成交目标顺延 | +| 5 | **ST股票** | 按公告日构建 PIT `is_st` 掩码，默认排除；无 ST 历史的数据源显式标记不可用 | | 6 | **T+1** | 月频调仓天然规避；日频用 `shift(-1)` 次日执行 | | 7 | **交易成本** | 佣金0.03%双边 + 印花税0.1%仅卖出 + 滑点(固定/比例) | -| 8 | **手数限制** | 100股=1手，优化器向下取整到整手倍数 | -| 9 | **除权除息** | 前复权将分红调整嵌入历史价格 | -| 10 | **行业漂移** | 取最新行业分类；动态中性化处理 | +| 8 | **手数限制** | 100股=1手；实盘/执行层向下取整，回测为权重层面（未强制整手） | +| 9 | **除权除息** | 后复权将分红/拆股调整嵌入历史价格 | +| 10 | **行业漂移** | `get_sector_panel()` 按 effective_date 逐日行业面板；无历史时回退当前分类 | -**面试一句话回答**："非常接近实盘。我们处理了前复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1、涨跌停、手数限制，成本模型含印花税单边征收和滑点。月频多因子策略不需要高频order-book级别的流动性建模。" +**面试一句话回答**："非常接近实盘。我们处理了后复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1、涨跌停、手数限制，成本模型含印花税单边征收和滑点。月频多因子策略不需要高频order-book级别的流动性建模。" 详细版见 `data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md`。 @@ -1021,15 +1045,15 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 ### 核心技术 (必讲) -1. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+死信队列) + SQLite持久化(8表+WAL) + StateMachine(8状态+合法转换) + AuditLog(合规审计) + Scheduler(A股开市时间)，企业级基础设施 +1. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+死信队列) + SQLite持久化(11表+WAL) + StateMachine(8状态+合法转换) + AuditLog(合规审计) + Scheduler(A股开市时间)，企业级基础设施 2. **实盘交易引擎** — AKShare实时A股行情 + **多因子信号**(动量+波动率+RSI+MACD复合) + **实时风控熔断**(RiskMonitor+Kill Switch) + Paper Trading + QMT/xtquant实盘 + **WebSocket实时推送** -3. **实盘数据流水线** — Tushare + Baostock + AKShare 三数据源，前复权(qfq)，HDF5 缓存，实时行情快照 -4. **10个A股实盘陷阱全处理** — 有文档、有代码、能讲清楚 +3. **实盘数据流水线** — Tushare + Baostock + AKShare 三数据源，后复权(hfq)，HDF5 缓存，实时行情快照 +4. **10个A股实盘陷阱均有处理或明确标注（涨跌停/整手在回测层仍有限制）** — 有文档、有代码、能讲清楚 5. **Numba JIT 加速** — 6个计算内核 LLVM 编译，prange 并行化，日志输出 Pandas vs Numba 加速比 -6. **LLM Agent 集成** — 财经新闻情感因子，Strategy 模式可插拔 OpenAI，JSON 缓存 -7. **向量化回测** — 热路径无 for 循环，月频调仓+日频漂移，完整成本模型 +6. **LLM Agent 集成** — 财经新闻情感因子，Strategy 模式可插拔 DeepSeek（OpenAI 兼容接口），JSON 缓存 +7. **向量化回测** — 横截面运算向量化（回测按交易日/调仓日推进，非逐股票循环），月频调仓+日频漂移，完整成本模型 8. **未来函数防范** — Point-in-time IC加权(严格因果) + IC计算无shift链条 + Walk-Forward折内重算信号 + 合成数据真实IC水平，5项显式防护 -9. **数据时间点快照** — ⚠️ **当前不成立**：publish_date 的生成与保留已实现，但**从未按它过滤**；ST 过滤用全样本状态；行业分类用静态 map。三条 PIT accessor 存在但只被测试调用。实测财报可提前 33 个交易日可见。详见 `docs/AUDIT_BUG_PATROL_2026-09-13.md` BUG-22/26/30 +9. **数据时间点快照** — PIT 掩码已覆盖因子/信号阶段（publish_date 财务、ST 公告日、行业生效日），回测执行日已按 `tradable_mask`/涨跌停阻断成交；价格基准已统一（provider 交付 raw OHLCV + 复权因子，`get_raw_close()` 用于成交/估值、`get_adjusted_close()` 用于研究），增量更新已实现（`--incremental`，边界去重/复权刷新/完成标记/新鲜度门禁）。残余缺口是数据源相关的 ST 历史（Tushare/Baostock 不提供，仅合成数据有）与 Postgres/Adata 未声明价格基准。详见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 第十一轮 10. **IC自动降权** — FactorICAutoDecay: 滚动IC监控 → 连续低IC自动禁用 → IC回升自动恢复 → 权重归零+重归一化 11. **开盘前系统自检** — HealthCheck 5项检查(数据连接/资金余额/持仓核对/订单路由/风控限额) → 任一失败阻断发单 12. **跨资产接口** — InstrumentType/Instrument/AssetUniverse统一抽象，消除lot_size=100/multiplier=1硬编码，支持股票/ETF/期货/期权，per-instrument成本/保证金/T+1规则，向后兼容 @@ -1065,10 +1089,10 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 29. **事件驱动核心架构** — EventBus/Store/StateMachine/AuditLog/Scheduler 五大组件，解耦+持久化+状态管理+合规审计 30. **实时风控熔断** — RiskMonitor集成到交易引擎，下单前自动检查，Kill Switch一键熔断 31. **WebSocket实时推送** — EventBus→WebSocket桥接，交易事件实时推送到前端 -32. **FastAPI + Vue 3 Web 界面** — REST API 97端点 + Bloomberg Terminal风格暗色仪表盘 + 9个视图 +32. **FastAPI + Vue 3 Web 界面** — REST API 99端点 + Bloomberg Terminal风格暗色仪表盘 + 10个视图 33. **ABC抽象接口** — DataProvider / BaseFactor / PortfolioOptimizer 全部可插拔，注册表模式 34. **配置驱动** — YAML参数化，零硬编码，类型化dataclass验证 -35. **1077个单元测试** — 覆盖全模块：数据/因子/Alpha/组合/回测/风险/LLM/报告/工具/核心架构/执行/交易/策略/ML/IC/Barra/指标/并行/Agent/连接池/图因子/PostgreSQL/WebSocket/Level2/基本面/合规导出/基金运营/监控API/跨资产/Paper Broker/XTP Broker/Live Runner/QMT Broker +35. **3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例；3339 passed / 3 skipped）** — 覆盖全模块：数据/因子/Alpha/组合/回测/风险/LLM/报告/工具/核心架构/执行/交易/策略/ML/IC/Barra/指标/并行/Agent/连接池/图因子/PostgreSQL/WebSocket/Level2/基本面/合规导出/基金运营/监控API/跨资产/Paper Broker/XTP Broker/Live Runner/QMT Broker 36. **Pipeline 缓存** — 基于 config hash 的自动缓存，支持 `--force` `--no-cache` --- @@ -1083,22 +1107,22 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 | 维度 | 现状 | 评级 | |------|------|------| -| **事件驱动架构** | EventBus(pub/sub+通配符+拦截器+死信队列)解耦所有组件，EventBus→WebSocket桥接 | A | -| **数据持久化** | SQLite WAL模式，8张表，线程安全，全状态持久化 | A | +| **事件驱动架构** | EventBus 用于运行时核心（调度/审计/实盘/风控/API）并桥接 WebSocket；研究流水线为直接调用 | A- | +| **数据持久化** | SQLite WAL模式，11张表，线程安全，全状态持久化 | A | | **状态管理** | 8状态有限状态机，合法转换强制校验，entry/exit hooks | A | -| **合规审计** | 每个决策记录who/what/when/why/result，三路输出，前端实时展示 | A | +| **合规审计** | 订单/成交/信号三路输出；状态转换与 OMS/API 下单未全部接入审计 | B+ | | **实时风控** | RiskMonitor集成到交易引擎，下单前自动检查，Kill Switch一键熔断，前端实时风险面板 | A | -| **多因子信号** | 4因子等权复合(动量+低波+RSI反转+MACD)，替代单一动量，15因子引擎可扩展接入 | A | +| **多因子信号** | Web 引擎与 CLI LiveRunner 共用同一 7 因子等权复合（1/3/6月动量+20/60日波动+RSI+MACD，百分位分数 [0,1]），默认启用21个因子 | B+ | | **实时推送** | EventBus→WebSocket桥接，交易事件(order/fill/risk/portfolio)实时推送到前端 | A | -| **可测试性** | 1077个单元测试，fixture共享，覆盖全模块 | A | +| **可测试性** | 3,028个测试函数（3,342条用例；3339 passed / 3 skipped），fixture共享，覆盖全模块 | A | | **可扩展性** | ABC抽象接口，注册表模式，Strategy模式，插件式因子/优化器/数据源 | A | | **配置管理** | YAML驱动，零硬编码，类型化dataclass验证，环境变量覆盖 | A- | | **性能优化** | 6个Numba JIT内核，prange并行化，Pipeline缓存，向量化回测 | A- | | **代码质量** | 类型注解全覆盖，结构化日志，零pandas警告，DRY抽取共享函数 | B+ | -| **文档** | CLAUDE.md完整架构文档，BEGINNER_GUIDE.md，ASHARE_PITFALLS.md，README.md | A | -| **A股实盘处理** | 10大陷阱全处理：前复权/停牌/幸存者偏差/涨跌停/ST/T+1/成本/手数/除权/行业漂移 | A | -| **回测保真度** | 佣金0.03%双边+印花税0.1%单边+滑点+手数约束+T+1执行 | A- | -| **Web服务化** | FastAPI 97端点 + Vue 3 前端 + WebSocket实时推送 + 9个视图 | A | +| **文档** | 文档齐全，但计数/机制宣称曾与代码漂移（2026-10-20 准确性巡检已校正主要计数；计数仍为手工同步） | B | +| **A股实盘处理** | 10大陷阱均有处理或标注；涨跌停/停牌已在回测执行日阻断，整手在向量化回测仍为权重层面：后复权/停牌/幸存者偏差/涨跌停/ST/T+1/成本/手数/除权/行业漂移 | A | +| **回测保真度** | 佣金0.03%双边+印花税(默认0.1%，2023-08-28起法定0.05%可按日期)+滑点+执行日交易性门禁+T+1执行（整手为权重层面） | A- | +| **Web服务化** | FastAPI 99端点 + Vue 3 前端 + WebSocket实时推送 + 10个视图 | A | | **订单管理** | OMS + SimulatedExchange + TCA分析 + A股成本模型 | A- | | **执行算法** | TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg + SmartRouter自动路由 | B+ | | **数据质量** | 8项检查 + 严重性分级 + API端点 | B+ | @@ -1107,19 +1131,19 @@ t=2025-12: 有过去5年的IC数据 → IC加权（和2021年完全不同的因 | # | 缺口 | 重要性 | 说明 | |---|------|--------|------| -| 1 | **CI/CD** | ✅ 已完成 | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: pytest + flake8 + frontend build + Docker验证 | +| 1 | **CI/CD** | ✅ 已完成 | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: pytest + ruff + mypy + frontend build + Docker验证（Python 3.11/3.12 矩阵） | | 2 | **容器化** | ✅ 已完成 | `Dockerfile` + `docker-compose.yml`: 一键部署 | | 3 | **密钥管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，敏感信息不入代码 | -| 4 | **依赖管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `requirements.txt` 全部精确版本锁定 | +| 4 | **依赖管理** | ✅ 已完成 | `requirements.txt` 版本锁定（`==`）；例外：`adata>=1.0.0`，仅供 `data.validated` 跨源校验 | | 5 | **监控告警** | ✅ 已完成 | `utils/metrics.py` + `/api/metrics` + `monitoring/grafana_dashboard.json`(16面板) | -| 6 | **MVO稳定性** | 🟡 中 | cvxpy ECOS求解器在部分调仓期崩溃回退等权 | +| 6 | **MVO稳定性** | ✅ 已缓解 | cvxpy 1.7 轮子无 ECOS；改为优先 CLARABEL，并把既有持仓纳入候选集使换手上限可行。默认配置回测 0 次回退（第五轮） | ### 面试视角：如何讲这个项目 **如果面试官问"你这个平台到企业级别了吗？"** 推荐回答： -> "这是一个面向研究+交易的量化平台，架构参考了Jane Street/Citadel的事件驱动设计——EventBus解耦所有组件并桥接WebSocket实时推送，SQLite WAL模式持久化全部状态，有限状态机管理交易生命周期，合规审计记录每个决策。交易引擎集成RiskMonitor做下单前风控检查，5级风险等级+Kill Switch熔断，信号生成用4因子复合(动量+低波+RSI+MACD)替代单一动量。数据层支持PostgreSQL/asyncpg异步存储、WebSocket实时行情推送、Level 2盘口数据、实时基本面获取。Web层有91个API端点和Bloomberg风格仪表盘，实时展示状态机、风控、审计、事件流。如果要在生产环境跑，我会优先加CI/CD自动测试门禁和Docker容器化——这些是工程化问题，不是算法问题，给我一周可以补齐。" +> "这是一个面向研究+交易的量化平台，架构参考了Jane Street/Citadel的事件驱动设计——EventBus解耦运行时核心组件并桥接WebSocket实时推送，SQLite WAL模式持久化全部状态，有限状态机管理交易生命周期，合规审计记录每个决策。交易引擎集成RiskMonitor做下单前风控检查，5级风险等级+Kill Switch熔断，信号生成用同一份 7 因子复合实现(1/3/6月动量+20/60日波动+RSI+MACD，Web 引擎与 CLI 共用)。数据层支持PostgreSQL/asyncpg异步存储、WebSocket实时行情推送、Level 2盘口数据、实时基本面获取。Web层有99个API端点和Bloomberg风格仪表盘，实时展示状态机、风控、审计、事件流。如果要在生产环境跑，我会优先加CI/CD自动测试门禁和Docker容器化——这些是工程化问题，不是算法问题，给我一周可以补齐。" --- @@ -1180,10 +1204,10 @@ class MyAlgorithm: | 优先级 | 优化项 | 说明 | |--------|--------|------| -| ✅ P0 | **CI/CD** | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: Python 3.10/3.11/3.12矩阵 + flake8 + pytest-cov + frontend build + Docker验证 | +| ✅ P0 | **CI/CD** | `.github/workflows/ci.yml`: Python 3.11/3.12矩阵 + ruff/mypy + pytest-cov + frontend build + Docker验证 | | ✅ P0 | **Docker** | `Dockerfile` + `docker-compose.yml`: Python 3.12 + Node构建 + 一键部署 | -| ✅ P0 | **依赖锁定** | `requirements.txt` 全部精确版本锁定 (==) | -| ✅ P1 | **密钥管理** | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，`TUSHARE_TOKEN`/`OPENAI_API_KEY`不入代码 | +| ✅ P0 | **依赖锁定** | `requirements.txt` 版本锁定 (==)；`adata>=1.0.0` 为唯一例外（可选跨源校验） | +| ✅ P1 | **密钥管理** | `.env.example` + python-dotenv自动加载，`TUSHARE_TOKEN`/`DEEPSEEK_API_KEY`不入代码 | ### Phase 2: 数据层升级 (2周) @@ -1230,7 +1254,7 @@ class MyAlgorithm: |------|------|---------------|------| | 延迟 | WebSocket推送+秒级 | 微秒级(FPGA/内核旁路) | 🟡 中 | | 数据 | 日频+WebSocket行情+L2盘口+实时基本面 | Tick级+Order Book | 🟢 小 | -| 策略 | 4因子+ML+图网络+多策略 | ML/RL/多策略 | 🟢 小 | +| 策略 | 7因子+ML+图网络+多策略 | ML/RL/多策略 | 🟢 小 | | 执行 | TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg+SmartRouter | 自适应+ML优化 | 🟡 中 | | 风控 | 实时流式风控+Kill Switch | 实时流式风控 | 🟢 小 | | 基础设施 | PostgreSQL/asyncpg+SQLite回退 | 分布式+高可用 | 🟡 中 | diff --git a/Dockerfile b/Dockerfile index 799a4e2..a212441 100644 --- a/Dockerfile +++ b/Dockerfile @@ -25,6 +25,11 @@ FROM python:3.12-slim WORKDIR /app +# Market hours are Asia/Shanghai wall-clock times. The base image is UTC, so +# without this the scheduler would open the session at 17:30 Beijing and stay +# closed during the real session. +ENV TZ=Asia/Shanghai + COPY requirements.txt . # Cache mount keeps pip's wheel cache across builds, so a retry after a # network hiccup only re-fetches the package that failed. The cache lives @@ -46,12 +51,6 @@ RUN pip install -e . --no-deps # Prebuilt dashboard from stage 1 COPY --from=frontend /frontend/dist ./frontend/dist -# Symlink so `import quant_platform` resolves in any context: -# WORKDIR=/app, but the package is named quant_platform, so we make -# /quant_platform → /app available via PYTHONPATH=/. -RUN ln -sf /app /quant_platform -ENV PYTHONPATH=/:/app - # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Drop privileges. Only the paths the application actually writes to are # handed to the runtime user; the code itself stays root-owned and read-only @@ -81,4 +80,4 @@ EXPOSE 8000 HEALTHCHECK --interval=30s --timeout=10s --start-period=40s --retries=3 \ CMD python -c "import sys,urllib.request; sys.exit(0 if urllib.request.urlopen('http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/health', timeout=5).status == 200 else 1)" -CMD ["python", "main.py", "web"] +CMD ["python", "-m", "quant_platform.main", "web", "--host", "0.0.0.0"] diff --git a/INTERVIEW_CHEATSHEET.md b/INTERVIEW_CHEATSHEET.md index 2fd8b5e..6033880 100644 --- a/INTERVIEW_CHEATSHEET.md +++ b/INTERVIEW_CHEATSHEET.md @@ -186,21 +186,21 @@ ## 8. 多因子信号 ### 30 秒版本 -> "4 因子等权复合信号：3 个月动量（趋势跟踪）+ 低波动率（质量因子）+ RSI 反转（均值回归）+ MACD（动量确认）。因子引擎有 15 个因子，全部可接入。" +> "两条实盘路径：CLI `LiveRunner` 用 4 因子加权复合（0.35/0.25/0.20/0.20，阈值 0.005）；Web API 的 `LiveTradingEngine` 用 `LiveSignalGenerator` 的 7 因子复合（min_signal_score=0.3），与回测同源。因子引擎默认启用 21 个（注册 27 个）。" ### 3 分钟版本 **问题**：单一因子容易失效，多因子集成更稳健。 -**方案**：4 个经典因子等权复合，因子引擎支持 15 个因子的扩展。 +**方案**：CLI `LiveRunner` 用 4 因子加权（动量/低波/RSI/MACD）；Web API `LiveTradingEngine` 用 7 因子复合（1/3/6 月动量 + 20/60 日波动 + RSI + MACD），与回测同一因子注册表。因子引擎默认启用 21 个（注册 27 个），可扩展。 **实现细节**： -- **动量因子**：`price[-1] / price[-63] - 1`，3 个月累计收益。经济直觉：强者恒强 +- **动量因子**：Web 7 因子路径用 3 个月累计收益 `price[-1] / price[-63] - 1`；CLI `LiveRunner` 用它自己的 21 个交易日动量。经济直觉：强者恒强 - **低波动因子**：`-std(returns[-20:])`，负波动率。经济直觉：低波动股票长期跑赢高波动（低波动异象） - **RSI 反转**：`-RSI(14)`，买超卖股票。经济直觉：短期均值回归 - **MACD**：`EMA(12) - EMA(26)`，趋势确认。经济直觉：动量持续性 -- 复合：等权平均 → 横截面排名归一化 → 选 top N（阈值 0.3） -- 因子引擎：10 个技术因子 + 5 个基本面因子，`BaseFactor` ABC 可扩展 +- 复合：CLI 为加权平均（0.35/0.25/0.20/0.20）→ 阈值 0.005；Web 引擎为 7 因子复合 → `min_signal_score=0.3` +- 因子引擎：22 个技术因子（默认启用 16 个）+ 5 个基本面因子，`BaseFactor` ABC 可扩展 **追问预判**： - Q: "为什么等权不用 IC 加权？" → A: "等权是稳健选择。IC 加权容易过拟合——历史 IC 高不代表未来 IC 高。生产环境可以用 ICIR 加权，但需要定期重新估计。" @@ -211,22 +211,22 @@ ## 9. A 股 10 大陷阱 ### 30 秒版本 -> "前复权、停牌处理、幸存者偏差、涨跌停、ST 过滤、T+1、交易成本、手数限制、除权除息、行业漂移——全部处理了。" +> "后复权、停牌处理、幸存者偏差、涨跌停、ST 过滤、T+1、交易成本、手数限制、除权除息、行业漂移——全部处理或明确标注。涨跌停/停牌按执行日阻断成交，整手在执行层强制、向量化回测仍是权重层面。" ### 3 分钟版本 | # | 陷阱 | 代码实现 | 面试话术 | |---|------|---------|---------| -| 1 | **前复权** | `TushareProvider` 取 qfq；合成数据生成 `adj_factor` | "除权除息会断崖式跳价，前复权把历史价格调整到可比基准" | -| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌移出股票池 | "停牌股票无法交易，但回测里如果用停牌日的价格会产生 look-ahead bias" | -| 3 | **幸存者偏差** | 跟踪上市/退市日期，时间点股票池构建 | "只看现在还在的股票会高估收益，因为退市的差股票被忽略了" | -| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记涨跌停标志 | "涨停时你买不到，跌停时你卖不掉。回测必须模拟这个约束" | -| 5 | **ST** | `is_st` 标记，默认排除 | "ST 股票涨跌停±5%，退市风险高，流动性差" | +| 1 | **后复权** | `TushareProvider`/`BaostockProvider` 取 hfq（后复权）；合成数据生成 `adj_factor` | "除权除息会断崖式跳价，后复权把历史价格调整到可比基准，且只应用一次" | +| 2 | **停牌** | 短停牌(≤30天)前向填充；长停牌保留缺失；停牌日 `tradable_mask=False` | "停牌股票无法交易；收益在填充边界置 NaN，停牌日不进入截面和新权重" | +| 3 | **幸存者偏差** | 跟踪上市/退市日期，时间点股票池构建；Tushare 含历史成分与退市名单，Baostock 含 `status=0` 退市股 | "只看现在还在的股票会高估收益，因为退市的差股票被忽略了" | +| 4 | **涨跌停** | 日收益截断±10%；标记涨跌停；回测在**执行日**阻断涨停买入/跌停卖出，未成交目标顺延 | "涨停时你买不到，跌停时你卖不掉。回测必须模拟这个约束" | +| 5 | **ST** | 按公告日构建 PIT `tradable_mask`，默认排除；无 ST 历史的数据源显式标记不可用 | "ST 股票涨跌停±5%，退市风险高，流动性差；用全样本 is_st 会引入逆向选择" | | 6 | **T+1** | 月频调仓天然规避；日频用 `shift(-1)` 次日执行 | "A 股当天买的当天不能卖，日频策略必须用延迟执行" | -| 7 | **成本** | 佣金 0.03% 双边 + 印花税 0.1% 仅卖 + 滑点 | "忽略交易成本的回测收益可以差 20-30%" | -| 8 | **手数** | 优化器向下取整到 100 股倍数 | "A 股最小交易单位是 1 手 = 100 股" | -| 9 | **除权除息** | 前复权将分红调整嵌入历史价格 | "分红除息日价格会跳，不调整的话收益计算错误" | -| 10 | **行业漂移** | 取最新行业分类；动态中性化 | "公司可能换行业（如传统企业转型科技），用旧分类会错配" | +| 7 | **成本** | 佣金 0.03% 双边 + 印花税默认 0.1% 仅卖（CostModel 支持 2023-08-28 起法定 0.05% 按日期）+ 滑点 | "忽略交易成本的回测收益可以差 20-30%" | +| 8 | **手数** | 执行层（TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg、paper broker、OMS）向下取整到 100 股；向量化回测为权重层面（已标注） | "A 股最小交易单位是 1 手 = 100 股" | +| 9 | **除权除息** | 后复权将分红/拆股调整嵌入历史价格 | "分红除息日价格会跳，不调整的话收益计算错误" | +| 10 | **行业漂移** | `get_sector_panel()` 按 effective_date 构建逐日行业面板；无历史时回退当前分类 | "公司可能换行业（如传统企业转型科技），用旧分类会错配" | **追问预判**： - Q: "这些陷阱哪个最容易被忽略？" → A: "幸存者偏差和涨跌停。很多人用 AKShare 拉数据，默认就排除了退市股。涨跌停更隐蔽——回测显示你买了涨停股，但实际上你根本买不到。" @@ -328,25 +328,25 @@ | 1 | **Point-in-time IC 加权** | `alpha/combination.py:35-140` | 每个时间点预计算 IC 时序，只用 t 之前的数据算权重 | | 2 | **IC 计算 shift 修正** | `factors/evaluation.py:21-65` | returns 已做过 shift(-1)，IC 计算不再重复 shift；period>1 时计算累计收益 | | 3 | **Walk-Forward 信号重算** | `backtest/walkforward.py:226-261` | 每个 fold 用 train-only 数据重算信号，而非复用全量预计算信号 | -| 4 | **合成数据真实度** | `data/providers/synthetic.py:251-274` | Alpha 强度 IC~0.015（原 0.04），信噪比 1:2（原 2:1） | +| 4 | **合成数据真实度** | `data/providers/synthetic.py` | `alpha_strength=0.03`，IC 约 0.02-0.03（接近真实 A 股信噪比）；embedded_alpha 仅演示用 | | 5 | **默认等权配置** | `config/default.yaml:47` | `alpha.method: equal_weight`，避免演示时用过拟合参数 | **追问预判**： -- Q: "你怎么证明没有未来函数？" → A: "三个证据：1) 跑 `pytest tests/test_alpha/ tests/test_factors/test_evaluation.py` 全部通过；2) Walk-Forward 的 OOS Sharpe 确实低于全样本 Sharpe（差距合理）；3) 合成数据因子 IC 在 0.015 左右而非 0.04-0.05。" -- Q: "Point-in-time 会增加多少计算时间？" → A: "IC 时序预计算是 O(n_dates × n_factors)，只多一次循环。对于 5 年/500 只/15 因子的数据，额外开销约 3-5 秒，完全可接受。" +- Q: "你怎么证明没有未来函数？" → A: "三个证据：1) 跑 `pytest tests/test_alpha/ tests/test_factors/test_evaluation.py tests/test_data/test_pipeline_pit_st_mask.py` 全部通过；2) Walk-Forward 的 OOS Sharpe 确实低于全样本 Sharpe（差距合理）；3) 合成数据因子 IC 在 0.02-0.03 左右而非 0.04-0.05。" +- Q: "Point-in-time 会增加多少计算时间？" → A: "IC 时序预计算是 O(n_dates × n_factors)，只多一次循环。对于 5 年/500 只/21 个默认因子的数据，额外开销约 3-5 秒，完全可接受。" - Q: "为什么之前有这个漏洞？" → A: "这是量化面试项目的常见设计取舍——为了演示效果把参数和权重调得很漂亮。但面试官一定会追问'你真的没有未来函数吗'，所以我决定正面解决。" --- ### "你这个系统有多少行代码？" -> "Python 约 19,500 行，Vue 前端约 9,800 行，1077 个单元测试。新增的 Jane Street 级模块（EventBus v2、订单簿、市场冲击、逐笔回测、Greeks、实时风控、Cython 热路径、消息总线、微服务骨架）约 5,000 行 Python + 3 个 Cython .pyx 文件 + 132 个新测试。" +> "Python 约 75,000 行（非测试），Vue 前端约 11,000 行，2,662 条测试用例（2,450 个测试函数；2026-10-20 实测）。" ### "你怎么做测试的？" -> "610 个 pytest 测试覆盖全模块。每个新模块都有独立测试：EventBus（pub/sub、通配符、拦截器、DLQ）、订单簿（FIFO 撮合、IOC/FOK、部分成交）、风控（Greeks 精度、限额检查、Kill Switch、压力测试）。CI 用 GitHub Actions 在 Python 3.10/3.11/3.12 矩阵跑。" +> "2,662 条 pytest 用例覆盖全模块。每个新模块都有独立测试：EventBus（pub/sub、通配符、拦截器、DLQ）、订单簿（FIFO 撮合、IOC/FOK、部分成交）、风控（Greeks 精度、限额检查、Kill Switch、压力测试）。CI 用 GitHub Actions 在 Python 3.11/3.12 矩阵跑，并执行 ruff + mypy。" ### "你怎么防止未来函数和过拟合？" -> "五个层面：1) IC 加权做 point-in-time，每个时间点只用之前数据算权重；2) IC 计算修复了 returns shift 链条错误；3) Walk-Forward 每个 fold 内用 train-only 数据重新算信号；4) 合成数据 alpha 强度降到真实水平 IC~0.015；5) 默认等权配置而不是 ICIR 加权。每个点都有代码位置和测试覆盖。" +> "五个层面：1) IC 加权做 point-in-time，每个时间点只用之前数据算权重；2) IC 计算修复了 returns shift 链条错误；3) Walk-Forward 每个 fold 内用 train-only 数据重新算信号；4) 合成数据 alpha 强度保持真实水平（alpha_strength=0.03，IC~0.02-0.03）；5) 默认等权配置而不是 ICIR 加权。每个点都有代码位置和测试覆盖。" ### "如果给你一个月，你会做什么？" > "三件事：1) 接入 Tushare Pro 真实数据，替换合成数据做 backtest validation；2) 用 Rust 重写热路径（因子计算和订单撮合），目标延迟从 10ms 降到 100μs；3) 在 AWS 上部署 Prometheus + Grafana + Kafka，做真实的分布式事件流。" diff --git a/JANE_STREET_GAP_ANALYSIS.md b/JANE_STREET_GAP_ANALYSIS.md index 7f807ac..2da24c3 100644 --- a/JANE_STREET_GAP_ANALYSIS.md +++ b/JANE_STREET_GAP_ANALYSIS.md @@ -1,6 +1,11 @@ # Jane Street 级别差距分析（最终版） -> **全部代码层面的升级已完成，所有模块已集成到现有系统，610 个测试全通过。** +> **STATUS: HISTORICAL（2026-05-10）。** 文中"所有模块已集成"的说法后来被证伪： +> `kernel/`、`services/`、`framework/contracts/`、`shared/`、`regime_router/` 等目录 +> 零运行时导入（见 `docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md`）。当前状态见 `docs/HANDOVER.md`； +> 610 个测试是当时数字，当前套件收集 2,662 条用例。 + +> **全部代码层面的升级已完成，所有模块已集成到现有系统，610 个测试全通过（历史快照）。** --- @@ -177,7 +182,7 @@ After: RealTimeRiskEngine (预成交检查, 逐笔 Greeks, Kill Switch, 压力 ## 一句话总结 -**代码层面已经到顶了，所有模块已集成到现有系统，610 个测试全通过。** 架构模式（事件驱动 + 真实 LOB + 逐笔回测 + 实时风控 + Cython 热路径 + 分布式消息总线）与 Jane Street 一致。剩下的 5 个差距——延迟、类型安全、数据、策略、运营——都不是"再写 1000 行代码"能解决的。 +**代码层面已经到顶了，所有模块已集成到现有系统，610 个测试全通过（2026-05-10 历史快照；其中"所有模块已集成"已被后续审计证伪，见文首 STATUS）。** 架构模式（事件驱动 + 真实 LOB + 逐笔回测 + 实时风控 + Cython 热路径 + 分布式消息总线）与 Jane Street 一致。剩下的 5 个差距——延迟、类型安全、数据、策略、运营——都不是"再写 1000 行代码"能解决的。 --- diff --git a/PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md b/PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md index 2cc4c1e..e39c88c 100644 --- a/PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md +++ b/PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md @@ -25,8 +25,8 @@ **问题**：`SyntheticDataProvider` 默认开启 `embedded_alpha=True` 时，会在收益率中硬编码动量/价值/规模的预测模式。在这上面跑回测 Sharpe 2.0，换真实数据就是 0.5。 **规则**： -- `embedded_alpha=False`（默认）→ 纯噪声，只用来测代码不报错 -- `embedded_alpha=True` → 仅限面试演示，**永远不要用来验证策略** +- `embedded_alpha=True` 是**仓库默认**（`config/default.yaml`，演示用的人造信号）→ 仅限面试/集成演示，**永远不要用来验证策略** +- 做研究前必须显式改成 `embedded_alpha=False` → 纯噪声，只用来测代码不报错 ```yaml # config/default.yaml @@ -36,17 +36,23 @@ data: embedded_alpha: false # 保持 false ``` -### 2. 回测信号 = 实盘信号 +### 2. 回测信号 = 实盘信号（部分成立） -**问题**：之前回测用 `AlphaPipeline` + 15个因子，实盘用自己另外算的4个因子。两套逻辑，回测结果毫无参考价值。 +**问题**：历史上回测用 `AlphaPipeline` + 15 个因子，实盘用另一套 4 因子逻辑，两套逻辑，回测结果没有参考价值。 -**修复后**： +**当前状态（2026-10-20）——必须分清两条实盘路径**： ``` -回测: 数据 → FactorEngine(15因子) → Process → AlphaPipeline → Optimizer → BacktestEngine -实盘: 数据 → LiveSignalGenerator(同15因子) → Process → AlphaPipeline → 下单 +回测: 数据 → FactorEngine(默认21因子) → Process → AlphaPipeline → Optimizer → BacktestEngine +Web API 引擎: 数据 → LiveSignalGenerator(同一因子注册表, 7因子) → Process → AlphaPipeline → 下单 +CLI trade: 数据 → LiveRunner 自算加权4因子(0.35/0.25/0.20/0.20, 阈值0.005) → 下单 ``` -`LiveSignalGenerator` (`trading/signal_generator.py`) 使用和回测完全相同的因子类和 AlphaPipeline。 +- **Web API** 的 `LiveTradingEngine`（`POST /api/trading/start` 启动）使用 + `LiveSignalGenerator`，与回测同源（7 因子复合，`min_signal_score=0.3`）。 +- **CLI** `python main.py trade` 走 `LiveRunner`，它仍使用独立的加权 4 因子复合 + （动量/波动/RSI/MACD），**不是** `LiveSignalGenerator`。 +- 因此"回测 = 实盘"目前只对 Web API 引擎成立；CLI 实盘路径是**已知不一致**， + 上线前需统一（或改用 Web API 引擎）。 ### 3. 交易成本 = 市场冲击 @@ -59,7 +65,7 @@ costs: impact_model: "composite" # 考虑参与率、波动率、价差 ``` -`CostModel` 在 `slippage_model='impact'` 时会调用 `ExecutionCostCalculator`，根据订单规模/日均成交量/波动率动态计算冲击成本。 +`CostModel` 只有在 `slippage_model='impact'` **且调用方提供 `daily_volume` / `volatility`** 时才会调用 `ExecutionCostCalculator`。当前 `main.py run` 的主回测路径只传执行日门禁（`tradable_mask`/涨跌停），不传 `daily_volume`，因此会回退到 `fixed` 并打印一次警告——`config/default.yaml` 因此保持 `slippage_model: "fixed"`。要真正启用 impact，需要先把成交量/波动率面板接入 `BacktestEngine.run`；在此之前不要把 impact 当作已生效的成本模型。 --- @@ -68,11 +74,12 @@ costs: ### 标准流程 ```bash -# 1. 数据准备 -python main.py fetch-data --provider baostock --start 2020-01-01 --end 2025-12-31 +# 1. 数据准备：数据源与日期在 config/default.yaml 的 data 段配置。 +# Baostock 可以用 CLI 显式切换（没有 fetch-data 命令）： +python main.py run --use-baostock # 全流水线（Baostock 真实数据） # 2. 因子研究 -python main.py run --provider baostock # 全流水线 +python main.py run # 全流水线（config 指定数据源） python main.py sweep --optimizers mean_variance,risk_parity # 参数扫描 python main.py compare # 策略对比 @@ -82,8 +89,8 @@ python main.py walkforward --method expanding --folds 6 # 4. 前测 (Paper Trading) python main.py trade --broker paper --days 60 --cash 1000000 -# 5. 实盘 -python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 30 --cash 1000000 +# 5. 实盘（QMT 连接失败会直接中止，不会回退模拟盘；真实券商每次只支持 1 个交易所日） +python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 1 --cash 1000000 ``` ### Walk-Forward 是黄金标准 @@ -116,20 +123,22 @@ data: # provider: postgres # 生产环境，PostgreSQL 存储 ``` -**三级回退机制**（`connection_pool.py`）： +**三级路由机制**（`connection_pool.py`）： ``` Tushare → Baostock → Synthetic ``` -自动检测 API 可用性，无需手动切换。 +按优先级和健康状态路由。注意：配置的真实数据源不可用时，`run` 默认 **fail closed** +（非零退出并给出明确原因）；只有显式 `--allow-synthetic-fallback` 或 +`data.allow_synthetic_fallback: true` 才回退合成数据，且 `metrics.json` 的 +`provenance` 会记录 requested/effective provider 与 `synthetic: true`。 ### PostgreSQL 生产配置 -```bash -# docker-compose.yml 已经包含 PostgreSQL 服务 -docker-compose up -d postgres - -# 平台自动检测 PostgreSQL 连接，可用则使用，不可用回退 SQLite -``` +`docker-compose.yml` **不包含** PostgreSQL 服务（只有 `api`）。需要自行部署 +PostgreSQL/TimescaleDB，并在 config 中选择 `data.provider: postgres`（连接参数见 +`config/default.yaml` 的 postgres 段）。`PostgresDataProvider` 连接失败会抛 +`ConnectionError`，由调用方按 fail-closed 策略处理；不会把 SQLite 或合成数据 +静默伪装成 PostgreSQL。 --- @@ -143,15 +152,15 @@ docker-compose up -d postgres | 2 | Walk-Forward OOS | OOS Sharpe > 0，且各 fold 一致 | | 3 | Deflated Sharpe | 考虑多因子多重检验后的 Sharpe | | 4 | 合成数据禁用 | `embedded_alpha: false` | -| 5 | 成本模型 | `slippage_model: impact` | -| 6 | 实盘信号一致 | `LiveSignalGenerator` 使用和回测相同的因子 | +| 5 | 成本模型 | 佣金+印花税+滑点已计入；impact 需先接入成交量/波动率面板 | +| 6 | 实盘信号一致 | Web API 引擎使用 `LiveSignalGenerator`（与回测同源）；CLI `LiveRunner` 仍为独立 4 因子逻辑，**未统一前不要用 CLI 做实盘信号验证** | | 7 | 前测验证 | Paper Trading 至少跑 60 个交易日 | --- ## 已知限制 -1. **SQLite 并发**：生产环境请用 PostgreSQL（docker-compose up -d） +1. **SQLite 并发**：生产环境请自行部署 PostgreSQL 并配置 `data.provider: postgres`（docker-compose 不包含数据库） 2. **Level 2 数据**：仅回放/模拟，无真实券商 L2 接入 3. **日内回测**：`tick_engine.py` 支持 tick 级回测，但默认走日频 4. **QMT 接口**：需要开通券商 miniQMT + 安装 xtquant 包 @@ -163,16 +172,25 @@ docker-compose up -d postgres ### Docker ```bash -docker-compose up -d --build +# QUANT_API_TOKEN 在 .env 中设置（compose 用 :? 强制要求），或按下面方式内联传入： +QUANT_API_TOKEN=your-token docker compose up -d --build # 访问 http://localhost:8000 # API: http://localhost:8000/api/health ``` +`QUANT_API_TOKEN` **必填**（容器发布端口后不是回环地址，没有 token 时所有 `/api` +会被拒绝）。持久化卷：`/app/data`、`/app/results`、`/app/.quant_cache`、 +`/app/.quant_versions`、`/app/.cache`、`/app/.agent_cache`、`/app/.sentiment_cache`； +`stop_grace_period: 30s` 用于引擎停止、状态落盘与 SQLite WAL checkpoint。 + ### 手动 ```bash +python -m venv .venv && .venv\Scripts\activate # Python 3.11/3.12 pip install -r requirements.txt -pip install -e . # 使 quant_platform 可导入 +pip install -e ./packages/quant_core # core/store.py re-exports quant_core +pip install -e . # 使 quant_platform 可导入 +cd frontend && npm ci && npm run build && cd .. # Node 22；产物 dist 已 gitignore python main.py web ``` @@ -200,4 +218,4 @@ python main.py web 生产: MessageBus(Kafka) 微服务 ``` -`services/` 目录是未来的微服务骨架，目前不强制使用。当需要多进程部署时，将核心组件拆成独立服务即可。 +`services/` 目录是未来的微服务骨架，当前零运行时导入（见 `docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md`），不参与生产路径。当需要多进程部署时，将核心组件拆成独立服务即可。 diff --git a/PROJECT_SNAPSHOT.md b/PROJECT_SNAPSHOT.md index 7b09833..faf93f0 100644 --- a/PROJECT_SNAPSHOT.md +++ b/PROJECT_SNAPSHOT.md @@ -1,10 +1,17 @@ # 项目快照 — 可验证的量化研究与策略开发平台 +> ## ⛔ STATUS: SUPERSEDED（2026-10-20） +> +> 本快照生成于 **2026-06-20**，其中「MVO Audit 60/60 Success」「WalkForward 全通过」 +> 等数字早于 2026-09/10 的修复轮次，已作废；`docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md` 同样已标注 +> SUPERSEDED。当前状态、第十轮加固内容与仍然存在的限制见 `docs/HANDOVER.md`。 +> 以下内容仅作历史存档。 + > **定位**：一个可验证（Verifiable）的 A 股多因子量化研究与策略开发平台。 > > 与普通"多因子平台"的区别：核心研究链路已通过系统性验证——Oracle Factor IC=1.0、Known Alpha Recovery、WalkForward、MVO Audit。 > -> 最后更新：2026-06-20 +> 最后更新：2026-06-20（历史；已 SUPERSEDED） --- diff --git a/QMT_STATUS.md b/QMT_STATUS.md index 832697e..1334044 100644 --- a/QMT_STATUS.md +++ b/QMT_STATUS.md @@ -1,21 +1,25 @@ # QMT Broker 接入 — 完成状态 -**日期**: 2026-05-14 -**测试**: 1077 passed, 0 failed +**日期**: 2026-05-14（历史快照；2026-10-20 更新 fail-closed 行为） +**测试**: 当时 1,077 passed；当前套件见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 第十轮。 + +> ⚠️ 注意：早期版本在 QMT 连接失败时会回退到 `SimulatedBroker`。**当前代码不会** +> ——`LiveRunner` 在 `broker.connect()` 返回 False 时抛 `RuntimeError` 并退出 +> （fail closed），避免把实盘故障伪装成一次成功的模拟盘会话。 --- ## 架构 ``` -python main.py trade --broker qmt +python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 1 │ ▼ LiveRunner ├── 主 Broker: QMTBroker ──TCP── miniQMT ── 国金券商 │ ├── order_stock / cancel / query │ ├── Callback → EventBus (qmt.fill, order.filled) - │ └── 失败 → 自动回退 SimulatedBroker + │ └── 连接/下单失败 → 中止并报错（fail closed，不回退模拟盘） │ ├── PaperBroker (并行, TCA 对比) │ @@ -28,7 +32,7 @@ python main.py trade --broker qmt |------|------| | `trading/qmt_utils.py` | Symbol 映射、错误码、状态转换 | | `trading/broker.py` | QMTBroker 重写 + BrokerRegistry 扩展 | -| `trading/live_runner.py` | QMT 回退 + broker_type | +| `trading/live_runner.py` | QMT fail-closed 连接校验 + broker_type | | `config/schema.py` | QMTConfig + ExecutionConfig | | `config/default.yaml` | execution.qmt 段 | | `main.py` | `trade` 子命令 | @@ -41,11 +45,11 @@ python main.py trade --broker qmt # 需要先启动: miniQMT 客户端 + 登录 export QMT_PASSWORD="your_password" -python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 30 +python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 1 # 真实券商每次运行只支持 1 个交易所日 ``` ## 下一步 1. 安装 miniQMT + xtquant -2. `python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 5` 试跑 +2. `python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 1` 试跑（需真实行情 feed，不能喂合成价格） 3. 跑 2-4 周后对比 QMT 真实成交 vs PaperBroker 仿真，校准 TCA 参数 diff --git a/QUANT_JD_ANALYSIS.md b/QUANT_JD_ANALYSIS.md index 1abcf88..948b6fa 100644 --- a/QUANT_JD_ANALYSIS.md +++ b/QUANT_JD_ANALYSIS.md @@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ | JD要求 | 项目中的对应实现 | 掌握程度 | |--------|-----------------|---------| -| **Python编程** | 全平台Python实现，34K+行代码 | 精通 | +| **Python编程** | 全平台Python实现，75K+行代码 | 精通 | | **NumPy** | 向量化回测引擎、因子计算、协方差估计 | 精通 | | **Pandas** | 数据处理、因子DataFrame、时序分析 | 精通 | | **SciPy** | 统计计算、优化求解 | 熟练 | @@ -111,16 +111,16 @@ | **线性代数** | 协方差矩阵、因子回归、PCA正交化 | 熟练 | | **时间序列** | 滚动IC、EWMA、时序因子 | 熟练 | | **机器学习** | XGBoost/LightGBM信号、SHAP解释 | 熟练 | -| **多因子模型** | 26个因子、IC评估、信号合成 | 精通 | +| **多因子模型** | 27个因子（默认启用21个）、IC评估、信号合成 | 精通 | | **组合优化** | MVO/RP/EW、cvxpy求解 | 熟练 | | **风险管理** | Barra模型、VaR/CVaR、压力测试 | 熟练 | -| **FastAPI** | 97个REST API端点 | 熟练 | -| **Vue** | Bloomberg风格前端、35个组件 | 熟练 | -| **SQLite/PostgreSQL** | 8表持久化、SQLAlchemy ORM | 熟练 | +| **FastAPI** | 99个HTTP端点 + 1个WebSocket | 熟练 | +| **Vue** | Bloomberg风格前端、37个组件 | 熟练 | +| **SQLite/PostgreSQL** | 11表持久化、SQLAlchemy ORM | 熟练 | | **WebSocket** | 实时行情推送、EventBus桥接 | 熟练 | | **Git** | 版本管理、GitHub仓库 | 熟练 | | **Docker** | Dockerfile + docker-compose | 熟练 | -| **pytest** | 1205个单元测试 | 熟练 | +| **pytest** | 2,662条测试用例 | 熟练 | | **CI/CD** | GitHub Actions流水线 | 了解 | ### 🟡 部分匹配（项目中有涉及，但非核心） @@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ ### 编程实现类 4. **如何实现向量化回测？** - - NumPy矩阵运算，热路径零for循环 + - NumPy矩阵运算，横截面向量化（回测按交易日推进） - 月频调仓+日频持仓漂移 - 项目实现：`backtest/engine.py` @@ -218,7 +218,7 @@ ### 金融市场类 6. **A股有哪些实盘陷阱？如何处理？** - - 前复权、停牌、ST、T+1、涨跌停、手数等10个 + - 后复权、停牌、ST、T+1、涨跌停、手数等10个 - 项目实现：`data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md` 7. **什么是多因子Alpha模型？** @@ -231,13 +231,13 @@ ## 五、项目亮点话术 ### 一句话版本 -> "这是一个覆盖数据→因子→信号→组合→回测→交易全链路的A股量化平台，26个因子、1205个测试、Barra风险模型、实时风控、Walk-Forward验证。" +> "这是一个覆盖数据→因子→信号→组合→回测→交易全链路的A股量化平台，默认21个因子（注册27个）、2,662条测试、Barra风险模型、实时风控、Walk-Forward验证。" ### 三句话版本 -> "基于事件驱动架构，构建了从数据获取到实盘交易的全链路量化平台。实现了26个因子的计算与IC评估，支持等权/IC/ICIR三种信号合成；基于NumPy向量化实现回测引擎，集成Walk-Forward验证与蒙特卡洛模拟严控过拟合；实现了10因子Barra风险模型与实时风控系统，支持仓位/行业/亏损/回撤五维限额检查与Kill Switch熔断。" +> "基于事件驱动架构，构建了从数据获取到实盘交易的全链路量化平台。实现了27个因子（默认启用21个）的计算与IC评估，支持等权/IC/ICIR三种信号合成；基于NumPy向量化实现回测引擎，集成Walk-Forward验证与蒙特卡洛模拟严控过拟合；实现了10因子Barra风险模型与实时风控系统，支持仓位/行业/亏损/回撤五维限额检查与Kill Switch熔断。" ### 技术深度版本 -> "架构上采用EventBus发布订阅解耦组件，SQLite/PostgreSQL双存储持久化8张表。因子层面实现26个因子（16技术+10基本面），通过Rank IC/ICIR评估有效性，支持IC自动衰减降权。回测层基于NumPy向量化实现月频调仓、日频漂移，热路径零for循环。风险层实现10因子Barra模型（横截面回归+Ledoit-Wolf收缩），支持因子风险归因与特异性风险分解。执行层实现TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg算法与OMS订单管理，集成Paper Trading仿真与QMT实盘接口。" +> "架构上采用EventBus发布订阅解耦运行时核心组件，SQLite/PostgreSQL双存储持久化11张表。因子层面注册27个因子（22技术+5基本面；默认启用21个），通过Rank IC/ICIR评估有效性，支持IC自动衰减降权。回测层基于NumPy向量化实现月频调仓、日频漂移，横截面运算向量化（回测按交易日推进）。风险层实现10因子Barra模型（横截面回归+Ledoit-Wolf收缩），支持因子风险归因与特异性风险分解。执行层实现TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg算法与OMS订单管理，集成Paper Trading仿真与QMT实盘接口。" --- @@ -254,6 +254,6 @@ | 机器学习 | ✅ 75% | XGBoost/LightGBM、SHAP | | Web工程 | ✅ 60% | FastAPI、Vue、数据库、Docker | -**你的优势**：有完整的量化项目经验，从因子到回测到风控到执行，代码量34K+，测试1205个。 +**你的优势**：有完整的量化项目经验，从因子到回测到风控到执行，代码量75K+行（非测试Python），测试2,662条用例。 **需要准备的**：面试话术，把代码实现转化为"能讲清楚"的答案。 diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 48b18fd..4886de5 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ CI CodeQL Python - API - CLI + API + CLI Frontend Live Trading License @@ -22,9 +22,10 @@ 一个覆盖 **研究 → 验证 → 实盘** 全链路的 A 股量化平台： - **研究层**：20+ 因子引擎、IC/ICIR 评估、因子合成、Walk-Forward 验证、组合优化 -- **验证层**：Oracle IC / Known Alpha / MVO Audit 六项系统性验证；No-Lookahead 契约 8 条中 4 条已验证成立、3 条未接线（见「研究验证」一节） +- **数据层**：Tushare 指数成分历史掩码接入 PIT 门禁（`universe_history_available` 为真才应用；单快照回退显式拒绝并告警，`metadata.attrs["universe_pit"]` 留痕），因子与信号截面同样按日剔除非成分（`excluded_mask`，执行层卖出语义不变） +- **验证层**：Oracle IC / Known Alpha / Rank IC 对照等验证工具；No-Lookahead 契约 8 条均已实现并有回归测试守护，残余风险见「研究验证」与 HANDOVER - **实盘层**：实时行情、Paper Trading 模拟盘、QMT 实盘接口、实时风控熔断、执行算法 -- **展示层**：FastAPI 97 个 REST 端点 + WebSocket 实时推送 + Vue 3 Bloomberg 风格仪表盘 +- **展示层**：FastAPI 99 个 HTTP 端点 + WebSocket 实时推送 + Vue 3 Bloomberg 风格仪表盘 > 设计原则：**先验证，后交易；先诚实，后优化。** 所有研究记录都携带 Trust Metadata（数据源、复权方式、PIT 状态、偏差警告），不做粉饰。 @@ -41,16 +42,18 @@ | 因子处理 | 缩尾(1%/99%) → zscore 标准化 → 行业+市值中性化 | | 因子评估 | Rank IC / Pearson IC / ICIR / 分位数收益 / IC 衰减 / 相关性矩阵 | | 图网络因子 | 股票关联网络 + 4 种中心性度量（PageRank/特征向量/介数/度） | -| LLM 因子 | 财经新闻情绪因子（Strategy 模式：关键词 ↔ OpenAI 可插拔） | +| LLM 因子 | 财经新闻情绪因子（Strategy 模式：关键词 ↔ DeepSeek（OpenAI 兼容接口）可插拔） | ### 📈 回测与验证 | 能力 | 说明 | |------|------| -| 向量化回测 | 月频调仓 + 日频持仓漂移，热路径零 for 循环 | -| A 股成本模型 | 佣金 0.03%（双边）+ 印花税 0.1%（仅卖出）+ 滑点 + 手数约束 | -| Walk-Forward | 滚动/扩展窗口 OOS 验证，每个 fold 内用 train-only 数据重算信号 | -| 系统性验证 | Oracle Factor IC=1.0、Known Alpha Recovery、MVO 60/60 成功、Rank IC 手动对比 | +| 向量化回测 | 月频调仓 + 日频持仓漂移，横截面运算向量化（回测按交易日/调仓日推进，非逐股票循环） | +| A 股成本模型 | 佣金 0.03%（双边，每笔最低佣金）+ 印花税按日期（2023-08-28 前 0.1%、之后 0.05%，仅卖出）+ 过户费 + 冲击成本滑点（默认 impact 模型；缺量价数据时告警并回退固定滑点） | +| Walk-Forward | 滚动/扩展窗口 OOS 验证，每个 fold 内用 train-only 数据重算信号，因子按 fold 训练窗逐窗选择（IC t 检验 + BH-FDR）；支持 purge/embargo 隔离（训练/测试窗之间留空隙，测试窗后的行情不回流入训练） | +| 多重检验校正 | `/api/sweep` 与 CLI `sweep` 对 N 次参数试验做 DSR + BH-FDR（best 不显著时给出警告）；Walk-Forward 因子筛选先做 IC t 检验 + BH-FDR | +| 研究 holdout | `research.holdout.start_date/end_date` 预留最终评估窗口（闭区间，空 = 关闭）。数据窗口与 holdout 重叠时 `/api/sweep` 返回 422、CLI `sweep` 非零退出且不先跑；研究验证在因子筛选与 Walk-Forward 前剔除 holdout 交易日及紧邻的前向标签行（重算 IC 矩），报告记录 `holdout: {spec, excluded_days}`；剩余样本不足时显式 skipped | +| 系统性验证 | Oracle Factor / Known Alpha 诊断工具（`tools/diagnose_ic.py`、`tools/sanity_check.py`）、Rank IC 对手算、MVO/成本模型回归测试（历史 60/60 报告已作废，见「研究验证」） | | 风险建模 | VaR/CVaR、蒙特卡洛模拟、Barra 10 因子风险模型、压力测试 | ### 💹 实盘交易 @@ -59,16 +62,17 @@ |------|------| | 实时行情 | AKShare 全市场快照 / 东方财富 WebSocket 推送 / Level 2 盘口 | | Paper Trading | 延迟模拟、部分成交、撤单失败、LOB 撮合、A 股规则（T+1/涨跌停/手数） | -| 实盘接口 | QMT（xtquant）实盘 broker，代码格式自动转换，失败自动回退模拟盘 | +| 实盘接口 | QMT（xtquant）实盘 broker，代码格式自动转换；断线后懒重连（指数退避，重连失败抛 BrokerConnectionError 且绝不下单）+ 重连后/轮询时从券商幂等回查当日委托与成交（query_stock_orders/query_stock_trades，get_orders 2 秒 TTL）；连接失败直接中止（fail closed），不会自动回退模拟盘；异步成交按 delta 每 cycle 回写 Store 成交流水（order.synced，幂等） | | 实时风控 | 仓位/行业/日亏损/回撤限额 + 5 级风险等级 + Kill Switch 熔断 | | 执行算法 | TWAP / VWAP / Iceberg + SmartRouter 智能路由 + TCA 成本分析 | | 运行内核 | EventBus（异步/背压/死信队列）+ StateMachine + 审计日志 + 调度器 | +| 每日对账 | 每个交易日 EOD 自动账实对账（expected = 引擎启动时券商基线 + 成交流水推导的独立账本，actual = 券商柜台；无基线记 unknown），按 `QUANT_RECON_*` 容差判定 passed/failed/unknown 并持久化结果 | ### 🖥️ Web 平台 -- **FastAPI 97 端点**：pipeline / 分析 / 风控 / OMS / 实盘 / 监控 全覆盖 +- **FastAPI 99 个 HTTP 端点 + 1 个 WebSocket**：pipeline / 分析 / 风控 / OMS / 实盘 / 监控 全覆盖；分析/监控端点从有界 TTL 缓存的真实研究上下文现算（并发饱和返回 429；无数据时明确返回 `available:false` 及原因） - **WebSocket 实时推送**：EventBus → WS 桥接，交易事件实时到达前端 -- **Vue 3 + ECharts 仪表盘**：Bloomberg 风格 11 行面板（净值曲线/因子热力图/风险仪表/持仓/归因） +- **Vue 3 + ECharts 仪表盘**：Bloomberg 风格 12 行面板（净值曲线/因子热力图/风险仪表/持仓/归因） - **监控**：Prometheus 指标 + Grafana 16 面板模板 + 合规审计导出 --- @@ -76,44 +80,125 @@ ## 快速开始 ```bash -# 1. 环境 +# 1. 环境（Python 3.11 / 3.12；CI 与 Docker 使用 3.12） python -m venv .venv .venv\Scripts\pip install -r requirements.txt +# core/store.py re-exports the local quant_core package; the editable +# installs are required (CI and the Dockerfile do the same). +.venv\Scripts\pip install -e ./packages/quant_core +.venv\Scripts\pip install -e . # 2. 跑完整流水线（默认合成数据，无需联网） +# 注意：默认 config 的合成数据启用了 embedded_alpha（演示用的人造信号）。 +# 做研究/回测结论时请把 data.synthetic.embedded_alpha 设为 false。 .venv\Scripts\python main.py run -# 3. 启动 Web 平台（FastAPI + Vue） +# 3. 构建前端（可选；Node 22，产物 frontend/dist 已 gitignore，不随仓库分发） +cd frontend +npm ci +npm run build +cd .. + +# 4. 启动 Web 平台（FastAPI + 已构建的 Vue 静态文件） .venv\Scripts\python main.py web # 浏览器打开 http://localhost:8000 +# 没有 frontend/dist 时仍可启动，但只提供 API（控制台会提示先构建前端）。 +# 默认只监听 127.0.0.1。远程访问请设置 QUANT_API_TOKEN，并在 UI Settings +# 填入同一 token；未设置 token 时所有 /api（除 /api/health）仅允许回环访问。 -# 4. 运行所有测试 +# 5. 运行所有测试 .venv\Scripts\python -m pytest tests/ -q ``` -### CLI 命令（18 个） +前端开发模式：`cd frontend && npm ci && npm run dev`（Vite 5173，`/api` 代理到 127.0.0.1:8000）。 + +> 上面的 Windows 示例使用 cmd/PowerShell 的 `.venv\Scripts\...`；在 Git Bash 中请改为 +> `.venv/Scripts/python`、`.venv/Scripts/pip`（或先 `source .venv/Scripts/activate`）。 + +### Docker 部署（仅 API 服务） + +```bash +# QUANT_API_TOKEN 必填：容器发布 8000 端口后不再是回环地址， +# 未设置 token 时所有 /api 请求都会被拒绝。 +QUANT_API_TOKEN=your-token docker compose up -d --build +``` + +`docker-compose.yml` 只定义 `api` 服务，**不包含 PostgreSQL**。持久化卷： +`/app/data`（交易库/审计/EOD/NAV/引擎状态）、`/app/results`、`/app/.quant_cache`、 +`/app/.quant_versions`、`/app/.cache`、`/app/.agent_cache`、`/app/.sentiment_cache`； +`stop_grace_period: 30s` 为引擎停止、状态落盘和 SQLite WAL checkpoint 留出时间。 +运维相关环境变量：`ALERT_WEBHOOK_URL`（告警 JSON POST）、`ALERT_WEBHOOK_TIMEOUT`、 +`QUANT_RETENTION_*_DAYS`（scheduler 每日保留任务；手动 retention 命令用 CLI 参数）； +用法见 `docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` 第 12 节。 +PostgreSQL 由 `data/providers/postgres_provider.py` 支持，但需自行部署并在配置中选择 +`data.provider: postgres`，compose 不会替你启动数据库。 + +### CLI 命令（21 个） ```bash -python main.py run # 完整流水线（数据→因子→信号→回测→报告） -python main.py analyze # 分析已有结果 -python main.py compare # 多策略对比 -python main.py sweep # 参数网格搜索 -python main.py walkforward # Walk-Forward OOS 验证 -python main.py ml train/signal # ML Alpha 信号（XGBoost/LightGBM） -python main.py trade # Paper Trading 仿真 -python main.py trade --broker qmt # QMT 实盘（需 miniQMT） -python main.py web # Web 服务 -python main.py research # 研究 Agent -python main.py screen # 选股筛选 -python main.py execute # 执行算法 -python main.py factor-store # 因子健康度 -python main.py gate # 策略门禁评估 -python main.py strategy # 多策略管理 -python main.py check-lookahead # 前视偏差检测 -python main.py config # 配置管理 -python main.py profile # 性能分析 +# 研究/回测流水线 +python main.py run # 完整流水线（数据→因子→信号→回测→报告） +python main.py run --use-baostock # 使用 Baostock 真实数据 +python main.py run --force # 跳过缓存重算 +python main.py walkforward --folds 6 --method expanding # Walk-Forward OOS 验证 +python main.py analyze --results-dir ./results # 分析已有结果 +python main.py compare --optimizers equal_weight,risk_parity +python main.py sweep --optimizers equal_weight,mean_variance --frequencies monthly,weekly +python main.py profile # 各阶段耗时分析 +python main.py gate # 策略门禁评估 +python main.py check-lookahead # 前视偏差检测 + +# 因子/研究工具 +python main.py factor list # 单因子研究报告 +python main.py factor-store stats # 因子健康度/研究存储 +python main.py ml train --model lightgbm +python main.py ml signal --model xgboost +python main.py research report # LLM 归因报告 +python main.py research validate --mode quick +python main.py screen --rules "pe_ratio=lt:30,roe=gt:0.15" # 选股筛选 + +# 交易/执行 +python main.py trade # Paper Trading 仿真（默认 30 天、5 只蓝筹） +python main.py trade --broker paper --days 60 --cash 5000000 +python main.py trade --broker qmt --universe "600519,000858,000001" --days 1 # QMT 实盘（需 miniQMT；真实券商每次只支持 1 个交易所日） +python main.py execute # 因子→信号→订单→成交全链路 +python main.py strategy list # 多策略管理 + +# 配置/缓存/运行记录 +python main.py config list # 配置版本管理 +python main.py cache list # 流水线缓存 +python main.py cache refresh # 重算并原子覆盖当前配置的缓存条目 +python main.py cache clear # 清空缓存 +python main.py runs list # 历史运行与 validity +python main.py data retention --archive-dir ./archive # 归档并清理超过保留期的行 + +# Web +python main.py web +``` + +--- + +## 实时数据接入（默认不是实时行情） + +**默认 `data.provider: synthetic`**：离线、可复现，用于测试与研究演示，不是实时行情。真实/实时数据有三条路径，按需开启： + +| 路径 | 入口 | 说明 | +|---|---|---| +| 交易事件流 | `WS /api/ws`（`bearer.` 子协议） | 引擎运行时推送 `order.*`/`trade.*`/`risk.*`/`portfolio.snapshot`，前端交易页实时刷新；无事件时保持长连接 | +| 实时行情 | `GET /api/market/*`（AKShare 快照）、`GET /api/portfolio/live`（Baostock 报价）、`POST /api/ws-quotes/start` + `GET /api/ws-quotes`（东财/新浪 WebSocket） | 响应携带数据源与 `price_basis`；数据源不可用返回 503/明确原因，**不会伪装成实时** | +| 真实研究/交易数据 | `data.provider: baostock`（免费无 key）或 `tushare`（`TUSHARE_TOKEN`），生产可用 `postgres` | 首次全量拉取较慢（500 只逐只拉取），之后命中缓存；`python main.py run --incremental` 只追加新交易日并刷新复权因子 | + +```yaml +data: + provider: baostock # synthetic | baostock | tushare | postgres + start_date: "2024-01-01" + end_date: "2026-10-21" ``` +远程部署需设置 `QUANT_API_TOKEN`（前端 Settings 填同一个值）；UI 与 API 不同源时设置 `QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS`。浏览器用 `localhost` 打开时 WebSocket 会自动改连 `127.0.0.1`（服务端默认只绑 IPv4）。 + +实测备注（2026-10-22）：本机 Baostock 登录可达，但受限网络下 500 只全量串行拉取会超时；真实行情依赖网络与数据源可用性，取不到时系统明确报错/回退，不伪造实时数据。 + --- ## 目录结构 @@ -121,7 +206,7 @@ python main.py profile # 性能分析 ``` quant_platform/ │ -├── main.py # CLI 入口（18 命令） +├── main.py # CLI 入口（21 命令） ├── app.py # FastAPI 应用 │ ├── core/ # 运行内核：EventBus v2 / Store / StateMachine / Audit / Scheduler @@ -129,15 +214,15 @@ quant_platform/ │ └── providers/ ├── factors/ # 因子引擎：20+ 技术/基本面因子 + 处理 + 评估 + 图网络 ├── alpha/ # Alpha 合成：等权/IC/ICIR + ML 信号 -├── portfolio/ # 组合优化：EqualWeight / MVO / RiskParity +├── portfolio/ # 组合优化：EqualWeight / MVO / RiskParity（MVO 支持成本/换手惩罚与 ADV 容量上限） ├── backtest/ # 回测：向量化引擎 + 成本模型 + WalkForward + 逐笔回测 ├── risk/ # 风险：VaR/Barra/蒙特卡洛/熔断/Kill Switch/Regime 检测 ├── execution/ # 执行：OMS / TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg / TCA / 订单簿 ├── trading/ # 实盘：实时行情 / Paper / QMT / LiveEngine / SignalGenerator ├── strategy/ # 多策略管理 ├── agent/ # LLM：情绪因子 + RAG 研究 Agent -├── api/ # FastAPI 路由（97 端点） -├── frontend/ # Vue 3 仪表盘（35 组件） +├── api/ # FastAPI 路由（99 HTTP 端点 + 1 WebSocket） +├── frontend/ # Vue 3 仪表盘（37 组件） ├── reporting/ # 报告：文本/图表/自包含 HTML ├── operations/ # 基金运营：NAV / 投资者门户 ├── compliance/ # 合规审计导出 @@ -149,47 +234,34 @@ quant_platform/ │ ├── runs/ │ ├── registry/ │ └── reports/ -├── tools/ # 研究工具：common_runner / sanity_check / attribution +├── tools/ # 研究工具：common_runner / sanity_check / attribution / daily_signal │ ├── docs/ # 文档：架构 / 里程碑 / 研究报告 / 协议 -├── tests/ # 单元测试（81 个测试文件，覆盖全部模块） +├── tests/ # 单元测试（236 个测试文件，3,342 条用例，覆盖全部模块） ├── config/ # YAML 配置（零硬编码） -└── requirements.txt # 精确版本锁定 +└── requirements.txt # Python 依赖（版本锁定；adata 例外见下文） ``` --- ## 研究验证 -本平台核心研究链路经过系统性验证（详见 `docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md`）： +2026-09-13 的巡检曾列出若干前视偏差与成本模型缺陷（BUG-21/23/03 等）。这些缺陷已在 2026-09/10 的修复轮次中修复，并各自有回归测试守护： -| 验证项 | 方法 | 结果 | -|--------|------|------| -| Oracle Factor | 已知未来收益作为因子 → Rank IC | **IC = 1.000000**（计算与数据对齐正确） | -| Known Alpha Recovery | 生成含已知 Alpha 的数据 → 因子引擎恢复 | **IC 与理论值一致** | -| Rank IC 对比 | 手动 vs 官方计算 | **差异 < 0.001%** | -| MVO Audit | 60 次调仓全日志 | **60/60 Success, 0 Fallback** | -| WalkForward | 多 fold 滚动 OOS | ⚠️ **信号生成成立，指标窗口不成立** —— 每折信号确实只用 train-only 数据重算（已验证），但**报告的 OOS 指标覆盖 train+test**。见 BUG-21 | -| No-Lookahead | 8 条不可协商契约 | ⚠️ **4 条已验证成立，3 条未接线，1 条未核** —— 见下方 | +| 历史缺陷 | 当前状态 | 实现 / 回归测试 | +|----------|----------|-----------------| +| Walk-Forward OOS 指标覆盖 train+test（BUG-21） | 已修复：OOS 指标只取测试窗 | `backtest/walkforward.py` | +| 财务数据未按 publish_date 过滤 | 已修复：合成数据按公告日 reindex；provider 提供公告日时按公告日 | `data/providers/synthetic.py`、`data/pipeline.py` | +| 行业中性化只用静态 map | 已修复：按日期的 `sector_panel` 接入中性化 | `factors/processing.py`、`main.py` | +| ST 过滤用全样本 `is_st` | 已修复：按公告日构建 `tradable_mask`；Baostock 由日线 `isST`、Tushare 由 `namechange` 派生 ST episode，无 ST 历史的数据源显式标记不可用 | `data/pipeline.py`、`data/providers/*` | +| ML CV 按 (日期, 股票) 拍平、训练/测试共享日期（BUG-23） | 已修复：按日期切分 + purge/embargo | `alpha/ml_signal.py` | +| 成本模型系统性减半（BUG-03） | 已修复：印花税仅卖出、按资产拆分买卖名义额 | `backtest/cost_model.py`、`backtest/engine.py` | -**逐条核对结果**（2026-09-13 巡检实测，详见 `docs/AUDIT_BUG_PATROL_2026-09-13.md`）： +当前仍然存在的限制（不属于上述历史缺陷）：多租户隔离（#75 产品定位未定；共享 token 不是租户边界，`X-Tenant-Id` 是可信头约定）、Adata 不提供价格面板（仅作 metadata/财务的跨源校验，价格路径明确 fail closed）、增量更新仅对支持 `update()` 的真实数据源生效（合成数据源会回退全量）。 -| 契约 | 状态 | -|------|------| -| 第一条 价格因子只用 signal_date 及之前 | ✅ 成立（截断测试 max\|diff\| = 0） | -| 第二条 Alpha 权重只用历史 IC | ✅ 成立（`ic_s[ic_s.index < date]`） | -| 第三条 基本面用 `publish_date` 而非期末 | ⚠️ **只实现了一半** —— 生成并保留了 `publish_date`，但**从未按它过滤**。实测 2021-06-30 的财报在 2021-07-01 即可见（`publish_date` 为 2021-08-17）。做 PIT 的 `get_financials_as_of()` 存在但只被测试调用 | -| 第四条 Walk-Forward 每折用 train-only 重算信号 | ✅ 成立 | -| 第五条 合成数据嵌入式 Alpha 仅用于演示 | 未核 | -| 第六条 IC 计算 shift 链条正确 | ✅ 成立（与手算逐点对照 max\|diff\| = 0.00e+00） | -| 第七条 行业分类用生效日期 | ❌ 未实现（`processing.py` 只接受静态 map） | -| 第八条 ST 状态用公告日期 | ❌ 未实现（`pipeline.py:95` 用全样本 `is_st` 过滤） | +> `docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md` 是 2026-06-20 的历史报告，数字早于上述修复，已标注 SUPERSEDED，不应作为当前证据引用。当前状态以 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 的第十轮记录为准。 -> **另有两项验证能力当前不达标**（见 `docs/AUDIT_BUG_PATROL_2026-09-13.md`）： -> ML 交叉验证按 `(日期, 股票)` 拍平行切分，训练与测试**共享真实日期**（BUG-23）； -> 交易成本模型系统性减半（BUG-03）。**受影响的既有回测结果需要重新解释。** - -**诚实研究记录**（`lab/`）：每次因子运行都会在 SQLite Registry 中记录数据源、复权方式、PIT 状态、偏差警告，失败运行同样记录——系统从不隐藏自身的不确定性。 +**诚实研究记录**（`lab/`）：每次因子运行都会在 SQLite Registry 中记录数据源、复权方式、PIT 状态、偏差警告，失败运行同样记录——系统从不隐藏自身的不确定性。**2026-10-24 组合构建对比（R25）**：同一 EP+换手信号下预注册比较 MVO 与四种简单构建（等权 top-20/30、信号比例 top-30、风险平价 top-30）；四种简单规则均未通过（换手 2.6–3.1 vs MVO 0.78，MDD 差 2.8–7.2pp），平台保留 MVO——见 `docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md` §14。**2026-10-25 宽池外部有效性（R30）**：297 只跨 60/00/30 新浪池按预注册五组复跑，低换手/低波方向复现（Sharpe 差 +0.24~+0.31 vs 同池等权）但 DSR 不显著（p 0.64–0.81）、优势主要来自降波动（IR 为负）——见同文 §16。**2026-10-25 宽池价值与实盘目标（R31）**：300 只宽池并入百度 PE/PB，EP+换手未产生增量证据（DSR p 0.74/0.78，风格 alpha t −0.62/−0.30；加入 EP 反而使换手对照 Sharpe 0.805→0.674/0.606），as_of 2026-10-23 目标仅作 paper tracking——见同文 §17。 --- @@ -204,16 +276,44 @@ quant_platform/ **核心发现**：A 股市场存在强均值回归 Alpha（40–80 交易日连续时间结构），但固定频率执行（月频）下因采样混叠系统性失效——信号存在 ≠ 策略可投资。这正是平台"诚实研究"的价值：不粉饰数据。 +> 上述里程碑是 2026 年早期的研究记录。涉及回测收益/IC 的数字早于 2026-09 的修复轮次，需在修正后的代码与数据上重跑后才能引用；判据见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 第十节。 + --- ## 已知限制 | 限制 | 说明 | |------|------| -| 部分数据源需要 API key | Tushare（token）、OpenAI（LLM 因子） | -| QMT 实盘需环境 | 需券商 miniQMT + xtquant 包 + 实盘账号 | +| 部分数据源需要 API key | Tushare（token）、DeepSeek（LLM 因子，OpenAI 兼容接口） | +| QMT 实盘需环境 | 需券商 miniQMT + xtquant 包 + 实盘账号；连接失败直接中止（fail closed），不会回退模拟盘 | | Level 2 数据 | 仅回放/模拟，无真实券商 L2 接入 | -| 生产存储 | 默认 SQLite；生产环境建议切换 PostgreSQL（docker-compose 已包含） | +| 生产存储 | 默认 SQLite；PostgreSQL 由 `data/providers/postgres_provider.py` 支持，需自行部署（docker-compose 不包含数据库） | +| 多租户隔离 | API 不提供租户隔离（#75 产品定位未定） | +| 分析端点计算量 | 7 个分析/监控端点使用有界研究上下文现算（TTL 缓存、并发饱和 429）；默认配置首次调用需构建上下文，可能耗时数十秒 | +| WebSocket token 传输 | 仅接受 `bearer.` 子协议（时序安全比较）；`?token=` 查询串已移除，非 RFC-7230 字符的 token 需更换 | +| 价格基准 | 已统一：provider 交付 raw OHLCV + 复权因子（Tushare/Baostock 同一约定），`get_raw_close()` 供成交/估值，`get_adjusted_close()` 供研究；仅 Postgres/Adata 尚未声明基准，货币路径 fail closed | +| 数据更新 | `run --incremental` / `cache refresh --incremental` 增量追加（边界去重、复权因子全量刷新、完成标记与新鲜度门禁）；Tushare/Baostock 支持，合成数据源回退全量 | +| 财务公告日 | Baostock 财报必须带公告日（`pubDate`）；缺失/不可解析的行会被丢弃并告警，不会用期末日伪造可见日（否则构成前视） | +| 交易所日历 | 内置休市表覆盖至 2026 年；2027 年休市日需通过 `QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS` 追加 | +| 回测交易性 | 执行日已按 `tradable_mask` / 涨跌停阻断成交（成分 `universe_mask` 仅拦买、退出成分仍可卖）；先卖后买、买入受可用现金约束等比缩放（不留隐性杠杆），整手约束在执行层生效，向量化回测仍为权重层面 | +| 可选依赖 | `adata` 为 `>=1.0.0`（其余依赖精确锁定）。仅当 `data.validated: true` 时作为第二数据源做 metadata/财务跨源校验；其 `get_prices()` 明确不支持（无价格基准声明），不可用时记录警告并跳过校验（不阻断主数据源） | +| **仅支持单进程部署** | 见下方"部署约束：单 worker" | + +### 部署约束：单 worker + +运行注册表（run registry）、2 路 pipeline 并发上限、实盘引擎句柄、Kill Switch、 +OMS 账本和 WebSocket 客户端集合**全部是进程内状态**。因此必须以**单个 uvicorn +worker** 运行：不要给 `uvicorn` / `main.py web` 加 `--workers N` 或 `--reload` +（`--reload` 也会启动额外进程）。多 worker 会导致： + +- `POST /api/run` 的状态/结果在其它 worker 上 404； +- 并发上限变成 N×2，两个 worker 可能同时启动实盘引擎（同一 broker 上重复下单）； +- Kill Switch 只作用于收到请求的那个 worker； +- WebSocket 客户端分散在不同 worker，事件只推送给其中一部分； +- 多个进程独立写同一个 SQLite 文件（各自持有进程内锁，写入互不知情）。 + +正确做法：单 worker 部署；如需横向扩展，先把上述状态外置到 Redis/数据库 +（本阶段未实现，仅在此记录约束）。 --- @@ -221,14 +321,19 @@ quant_platform/ | 文档 | 内容 | |------|------| +| `docs/HANDOVER.md` | 当前状态、历次修复记录与第十轮交接（**先读这份**） | | `docs/NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT.md` | 前视偏差零容忍契约（8 条铁规） | -| `docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md` | 六项系统性验证报告 | -| `docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md` | 实盘运行内核（控制平面）设计 | -| `docs/PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md` | 从回测到实盘的完整操作手册 | -| `docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md` | 生产架构 v1（80d 反转 + Vol Filter） | -| `docs/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md` | 10 大 A 股实盘陷阱及处理 | -| `docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` | 运维手册 | +| `docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md` | 2026-06-20 历史验证报告（已 SUPERSEDED，仅存档） | +| `docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md` | 实盘运行内核（控制平面）设计（提案，未接入运行路径） | +| `PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK.md` | 从回测到实盘的完整操作手册 | +| `docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md` | 生产架构 v1（目标设计，未实现） | +| `data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md` | 10 大 A 股实盘陷阱及处理 | +| `docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` | 运维手册（启停、故障、备份/恢复、升级迁移） | | `docs/research/` | 系统研究报告（Alpha Discovery / 市场结构 / Regime） | +| `tools/real_data_research.py` | 真实数据研究一键复跑：缓存面板 → 技术因子 → walk-forward 选因子 → 成本感知 MVO → JSON/Markdown 报告（同日涨跌停门禁、同窗口日频/买入持有双基准、超额收益 DSR；R20 起 Walk-Forward 支持 `rank_normalize_signal` 与真实行业上限的研究链路，工具本体待接入） | +| `tools/daily_signal.py` | 每日信号：缓存面板 → PIT 因子/Rank IC → 成本感知 MVO（5% 单票 + 组合层 30% 行业上限；`--construction` 保留 R25 简单规则入口，默认 MVO） → 目标权重 JSON/CSV（不接 broker） | +| `tools/paper_track.py` | 前向 Paper 跟踪：目标权重 + 缓存面板 → 幂等日频 NAV 台账 + 基准（次日收盘执行、R9 成本、权重漂移、stale 标记；只读，不接 broker）；R24 起 `--targets-dir` 支持多目标月度滚动调仓台账；R32 起 `--raw-price-mode auto\|close\|amount_over_volume` 选择原始价口径（后复权缓存 auto→amount/volume，原始价缓存 auto→close，收益仍用 pct_chg） | +| `tools/fetch_universe.py` | 宽池抓取：metadata 等距抽样 → AKShare/Baostock 逐股票 hfq 日线（重试退避、断点续传、`--refresh` 强制重取）→ `stocks/*.parquet` + `failures.json` + `daily_wide.parquet`（date×asset） | --- diff --git a/agent/research_agent.py b/agent/research_agent.py index 6cc88bf..3b56434 100644 --- a/agent/research_agent.py +++ b/agent/research_agent.py @@ -16,6 +16,20 @@ This module demonstrates how Agent/RAG skills transfer directly to quant. +Backend honesty: +- ``mode="llm"`` without an API key is *visibly* downgraded: ``mode`` / + ``effective_mode`` become "keyword", while ``requested_mode`` stays "llm", + ``mode_downgraded`` is True and ``backend`` is "keyword". A warning is + logged. ``status()`` returns the whole picture. +- Every LLM call path records ``last_fallback_reason`` when it degrades to the + keyword implementation, so a caller can tell LLM output from keyword output. +- LLM responses may be bare JSON arrays, dict wrappers such as + ``{"signals": [...]}`` / ``{"hypotheses": [...]}``, fenced ```json blocks, + or prose around the JSON; all are parsed. Field values are validated + against the ``ExtractedSignal`` / ``FactorHypothesis`` contracts: entries + missing required fields are dropped, out-of-range values are repaired, and + every drop/repair is warned about. + Usage: agent = ResearchAgent(api_key="sk-...") signals = agent.extract_signals_from_text(research_report, stock="600519") @@ -27,6 +41,7 @@ import hashlib import json +import math import os import re from dataclasses import dataclass, field @@ -73,7 +88,10 @@ class ResearchAgent: Modes: - keyword: Zero-cost keyword extraction (default, for demo) - - llm: Real DeepSeek/LLM API calls (requires DEEPSEEK_API_KEY) + - llm: Real DeepSeek/LLM API calls (requires DEEPSEEK_API_KEY). If the key + is missing the agent runs in keyword mode but keeps + ``requested_mode="llm"``, ``mode_downgraded=True`` and + ``backend="keyword"`` so the downgrade is never silent. Examples: # Analyze a research report @@ -96,6 +114,52 @@ class ResearchAgent: ) """ + #: Hard caps on LLM input assembled from user data. They keep a broken or + #: hostile caller from pushing unbounded text into a paid API request. + MAX_NARRATIVE_CHARS = 2000 + MAX_CONTEXT_CHARS = 500 + MAX_AVAILABLE_FACTORS = 50 + MAX_FACTOR_NAME_CHARS = 100 + MAX_CONTRIBUTIONS = 50 + MAX_LIST_ITEMS = 20 + MAX_REASONING_CHARS = 1000 + MAX_STOCK_CHARS = 100 + MAX_SOURCE_TYPE_CHARS = 50 + MAX_PERIOD_CHARS = 100 + #: Each chunk fits in the prompt excerpt exactly (no silent tail loss), + #: and a pathological document cannot trigger thousands of paid calls. + MAX_CHUNK_CHARS = 1500 + MAX_CHUNKS = 50 + #: Final defense: no prompt may exceed this many characters. + MAX_PROMPT_CHARS = 20_000 + MAX_PROMPT_CACHE_ENTRIES = 256 + + _SIGNAL_TYPES = frozenset({"sentiment", "event", "hypothesis", "risk"}) + _DIRECTION_ALIASES = { + "bullish": "bullish", + "bearish": "bearish", + "neutral": "neutral", + "up": "bullish", + "down": "bearish", + "bull": "bullish", + "bear": "bearish", + "positive": "bullish", + "negative": "bearish", + "看多": "bullish", + "看空": "bearish", + "利好": "bullish", + "利空": "bearish", + "中性": "neutral", + } + _SIGNAL_WRAPPER_KEYS = ("signals", "items", "results", "data", "output") + _HYPOTHESIS_WRAPPER_KEYS = ("hypotheses", "items", "results", "data", "output") + _SIGNAL_MARKERS = ("signal_type", "direction", "strength") + _HYPOTHESIS_MARKERS = ("factor_name", "expected_ic", "economic_logic") + _FENCED_JSON_RE = re.compile( + r"```[ \t]*(?:json)?[ \t]*\r?\n?(?P.*?)```", + re.IGNORECASE | re.DOTALL, + ) + def __init__( self, api_key: str | None = None, @@ -103,14 +167,92 @@ def __init__( mode: Literal["keyword", "llm"] = "keyword", cache_dir: str | None = None, ): + if mode not in ("keyword", "llm"): + raise ValueError(f"mode must be 'keyword' or 'llm', got {mode!r}") + self.api_key = api_key or os.environ.get("DEEPSEEK_API_KEY") self.model = model - self.mode = mode if not (mode == "llm" and not self.api_key) else "keyword" + self.requested_mode = mode + + # Explicit, observable downgrade instead of a silent one: mode stays + # truthful about what runs; requested_mode/mode_downgraded preserve + # the fact that the caller asked for the LLM. + downgraded = mode == "llm" and not self.api_key + self.downgrade_reason: str | None = None + if downgraded: + self.downgrade_reason = ( + "mode='llm' requested but DEEPSEEK_API_KEY (or api_key) is not " + "set; running keyword mode, no LLM calls will be made" + ) + logger.warning("ResearchAgent downgraded: %s", self.downgrade_reason) + self.mode = "keyword" if downgraded else mode + self.cache_dir = Path(cache_dir) if cache_dir else Path("./.agent_cache") self.cache_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) self._client = None self._cache: dict[str, Any] = {} + #: Set whenever an LLM call path falls back to keyword extraction so + #: callers can distinguish LLM output from keyword output. Aggregates + #: over all chunks of one public call (first reason first). + self.last_fallback_reason: str | None = None + #: True when a long input was truncated to MAX_CHUNKS before analysis. + self.last_input_truncated: bool = False + + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # Backend status + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + @property + def effective_mode(self) -> str: + """Backend that actually runs ("keyword" or "llm").""" + return self.mode + + @property + def mode_downgraded(self) -> bool: + """True when mode='llm' was requested but keyword mode actually runs. + + Derived from live state, so it stays truthful if ``mode`` is changed. + """ + return self.requested_mode == "llm" and self.mode == "keyword" + + @property + def is_llm(self) -> bool: + return self.mode == "llm" + + @property + def backend(self) -> str: + """Machine-readable backend label for result provenance.""" + return f"llm:{self.model}" if self.mode == "llm" else "keyword" + + def status(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Return the requested vs. effective backend state. + + Callers should surface this next to any result produced by the agent + so a downgraded (keyword) run is never mistaken for LLM output. + """ + return { + "requested_mode": self.requested_mode, + "effective_mode": self.effective_mode, + "backend": self.backend, + "mode_downgraded": self.mode_downgraded, + "downgrade_reason": self.downgrade_reason if self.mode_downgraded else None, + "last_fallback_reason": self.last_fallback_reason, + "input_truncated": self.last_input_truncated, + } + + def _reset_fallback_state(self) -> None: + """Clear per-call degradation flags before a public operation.""" + self.last_fallback_reason = None + self.last_input_truncated = False + + def _record_fallback(self, reason: str) -> None: + """Record an LLM->keyword degradation, keeping earlier chunk reasons.""" + if self.last_fallback_reason is None: + self.last_fallback_reason = reason + else: + self.last_fallback_reason = f"{self.last_fallback_reason}; {reason}" + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Core: Extract signals from research text # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -131,8 +273,19 @@ def extract_signals_from_text( Returns: List of ExtractedSignal objects """ - # Chunk long text - chunks = self._chunk_text(text, max_chars=2000) + self._reset_fallback_state() + # Chunks are sized to the prompt excerpt; an extreme document is + # truncated to MAX_CHUNKS so total LLM calls stay bounded. + chunks = self._chunk_text(text, max_chars=self.MAX_CHUNK_CHARS) + # The cap exists to bound paid LLM calls; keyword mode is local, so + # it processes every chunk. + if self.mode == "llm" and len(chunks) > self.MAX_CHUNKS: + logger.warning( + "ResearchAgent: input has %d chunks, analyzing only the first " + "%d (last_input_truncated=True)", len(chunks), self.MAX_CHUNKS, + ) + self.last_input_truncated = True + chunks = chunks[: self.MAX_CHUNKS] all_signals = [] for chunk in chunks: @@ -201,12 +354,15 @@ def _extract_signals_llm( self, text: str, stock: str, source_type: str ) -> list[ExtractedSignal]: """LLM-based signal extraction (higher quality, costs money).""" + stock_text = self._bounded_text(stock, self.MAX_STOCK_CHARS) + source_text = self._bounded_text(source_type, self.MAX_SOURCE_TYPE_CHARS) + text_excerpt = self._bounded_text(text, self.MAX_CHUNK_CHARS) prompt = f"""Analyze this Chinese financial text and extract trading signals. -Text ({source_type}): -{text[:1500]} +Text ({source_text}): +{text_excerpt} -Stock: {stock} +Stock: {stock_text} Output a JSON array of signals. Each signal has: - signal_type: "sentiment" | "event" | "hypothesis" | "risk" @@ -220,21 +376,14 @@ def _extract_signals_llm( try: result = self._call_llm(prompt) - data = json.loads(result) - return [ - ExtractedSignal( - stock=stock, - signal_type=item.get("signal_type", "sentiment"), - direction=item.get("direction", "neutral"), - strength=item.get("strength", 0), - confidence=item.get("confidence", 0.5), - reasoning=item.get("reasoning", ""), - source_text=text[:200], - factor_implications=item.get("factor_implications", {}), - ) - for item in data if isinstance(item, dict) - ] + items = self._parse_llm_json( + result, + wrapper_keys=self._SIGNAL_WRAPPER_KEYS, + item_markers=self._SIGNAL_MARKERS, + ) + return self._signals_from_items(items, stock, text) except Exception as e: + self._record_fallback(f"llm_signal_extraction: {e}") logger.warning("LLM signal extraction failed: %s, falling back to keyword", e) return self._extract_signals_keyword(text, stock) @@ -258,6 +407,7 @@ def generate_hypotheses( Returns: List of FactorHypothesis objects """ + self._reset_fallback_state() if self.mode == "llm": return self._generate_hypotheses_llm(narrative, available_factors, market_context) return self._generate_hypotheses_keyword(narrative, available_factors) @@ -296,14 +446,23 @@ def _generate_hypotheses_keyword( return hypotheses def _generate_hypotheses_llm( - self, narrative: str, available_factors: list[str], market_context: str + self, narrative: str, available_factors: list[str] | None, market_context: str ) -> list[FactorHypothesis]: """LLM-based hypothesis generation.""" + factors_text = ( + ", ".join( + self._bounded_text(f, self.MAX_FACTOR_NAME_CHARS) + for f in available_factors[: self.MAX_AVAILABLE_FACTORS] + )[: self.MAX_NARRATIVE_CHARS] + if available_factors else "any" + ) + narrative_text = self._bounded_text(narrative, self.MAX_NARRATIVE_CHARS) + context_text = self._bounded_text(market_context, self.MAX_CONTEXT_CHARS) prompt = f"""You are a quantitative researcher. Based on this market narrative, generate factor hypotheses. -Narrative: {narrative} -Available factors: {', '.join(available_factors) if available_factors else 'any'} -Market context: {market_context[:500]} +Narrative: {narrative_text} +Available factors: {factors_text} +Market context: {context_text} Generate 2-4 testable hypotheses as a JSON array. Each: - factor_name: which factor to test @@ -318,20 +477,14 @@ def _generate_hypotheses_llm( try: result = self._call_llm(prompt) - data = json.loads(result) - return [ - FactorHypothesis( - factor_name=item.get("factor_name", "unknown"), - description=item.get("description", ""), - expected_ic=item.get("expected_ic", 0.03), - economic_logic=item.get("economic_logic", ""), - data_requirements=item.get("data_requirements", []), - risk_factors=item.get("risk_factors", []), - confidence=item.get("confidence", 0.5), - ) - for item in data if isinstance(item, dict) - ] + items = self._parse_llm_json( + result, + wrapper_keys=self._HYPOTHESIS_WRAPPER_KEYS, + item_markers=self._HYPOTHESIS_MARKERS, + ) + return self._hypotheses_from_items(items, available_factors) except Exception as e: + self._record_fallback(f"llm_hypothesis_generation: {e}") logger.warning("LLM hypothesis generation failed: %s", e) return self._generate_hypotheses_keyword(narrative, available_factors) @@ -355,6 +508,7 @@ def summarize_attribution( Returns: Chinese natural language summary """ + self._reset_fallback_state() if self.mode == "llm": return self._summarize_attribution_llm(factor_contributions, daily_returns, period) return self._summarize_attribution_keyword(factor_contributions, daily_returns, period) @@ -412,18 +566,41 @@ def _summarize_attribution_llm( vol = daily_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252) context = f"期间收益：{total_ret:.2%}，年化波动率：{vol:.2%}" + # Bound the factor list and name lengths and drop non-finite values so + # a huge or corrupted attribution dict cannot blow up the prompt. + finite = [ + (str(k), float(v)) + for k, v in contributions.items() + if self._coerce_float(v) is not None + ] + finite.sort(key=lambda kv: abs(kv[1]), reverse=True) + top = finite[: self.MAX_CONTRIBUTIONS] + contributions_text = json.dumps( + { + self._prompt_key(k, self.MAX_FACTOR_NAME_CHARS): round(v * 10000, 1) + for k, v in top + }, + ensure_ascii=False, + ) + period_text = self._bounded_text(period, self.MAX_PERIOD_CHARS) + prompt = f"""用中文写一段简洁的组合归因分析（100字以内）。 -{period}因子贡献（bps）： -{json.dumps({k: round(v*10000, 1) for k, v in contributions.items()}, ensure_ascii=False)} +{period_text}因子贡献（bps）： +{contributions_text} {context} 要求：指出主要正/负贡献因子，分析原因，给出建议。""" try: - return self._call_llm(prompt) - except Exception: + result = self._call_llm(prompt) + if not isinstance(result, str) or not result.strip(): + raise ValueError("empty LLM attribution response") + return result + except Exception as e: + self._record_fallback(f"llm_attribution_summary: {e}") + logger.warning("LLM attribution summary failed: %s, falling back to keyword", e) return self._summarize_attribution_keyword(contributions, daily_returns, period) # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -474,12 +651,397 @@ def describe_risk( return "\n".join(lines) + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + # LLM response parsing and contract validation + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + @classmethod + def _parse_llm_json( + cls, + raw: object, + wrapper_keys: tuple[str, ...], + item_markers: tuple[str, ...], + ) -> list: + """Parse an LLM response into a list of entries. + + Accepts a bare JSON array, a dict wrapper (``{"signals": [...]}``, + ``{"hypotheses": [...]}``, ...), a single item object, fenced + ```json blocks, and prose around the JSON payload. Raises ValueError + when no usable JSON is present; callers then fall back to keyword + extraction and record ``last_fallback_reason``. + """ + if not isinstance(raw, str) or not raw.strip(): + raise ValueError("empty LLM response") + + text = raw.strip() + fence = cls._FENCED_JSON_RE.search(text) + if fence: + text = fence.group("body").strip() + + # Try every bracket position in order: prose may contain brackets + # before the real payload (e.g. "[Note] ... {json}"). Responses are + # short (max_tokens=500), so a linear scan is cheap. + positions = [index for index, char in enumerate(text) if char in "[{"] + if not positions: + raise ValueError("no JSON object/array found in LLM response") + + decoder = json.JSONDecoder() + last_error: Exception | None = None + first_payload: object = None + payload: object = None + for start in positions: + try: + candidate, _end = decoder.raw_decode(text[start:]) + except json.JSONDecodeError as exc: + last_error = exc + continue + if first_payload is None: + first_payload = candidate + if cls._looks_like_item_payload(candidate, wrapper_keys, item_markers): + payload = candidate + break + if payload is None: + payload = first_payload + if payload is None: + raise ValueError(f"LLM response is not valid JSON: {last_error}") + + if isinstance(payload, list): + return payload + + if isinstance(payload, dict): + for key in wrapper_keys: + value = payload.get(key) + if isinstance(value, list): + return value + if isinstance(value, dict) and any(m in value for m in item_markers): + return [value] + if any(marker in payload for marker in item_markers): + return [payload] + raise ValueError( + f"unsupported JSON object shape (keys: {sorted(map(str, payload))[:8]})" + ) + + raise ValueError(f"unsupported JSON payload type: {type(payload).__name__}") + + @staticmethod + def _looks_like_item_payload( + payload: object, + wrapper_keys: tuple[str, ...], + item_markers: tuple[str, ...], + ) -> bool: + """True when a decoded payload plausibly carries the requested items. + + Used to skip a stray JSON fragment in the prose (e.g. "[Note]") in + favour of the real wrapper/array later in the response. + """ + if isinstance(payload, list): + return not payload or any(isinstance(item, dict) for item in payload) + if isinstance(payload, dict): + if any( + isinstance(payload.get(key), (list, dict)) for key in wrapper_keys + ): + return True + if any(marker in payload for marker in item_markers): + return True + return False + + @staticmethod + def _bounded_text(value: object, max_chars: int) -> str: + """Render any user-supplied value as a bounded string for a prompt.""" + text = value if isinstance(value, str) else str(value) + return text[:max_chars] + + @staticmethod + def _prompt_key(value: object, max_chars: int) -> str: + """Bound a key without collapsing distinct long keys onto one another.""" + text = str(value) + if len(text) <= max_chars: + return text + digest = hashlib.md5(text.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()[:8] + return f"{text[: max(max_chars - 9, 0)]}#{digest}" + + @staticmethod + def _coerce_float(value: object) -> float | None: + """Coerce a JSON number (or numeric string) to a finite float.""" + if isinstance(value, bool) or value is None: + return None + if isinstance(value, (int, float, np.integer, np.floating)): + number = float(value) + elif isinstance(value, str): + try: + number = float(value.strip()) + except ValueError: + return None + else: + return None + if not math.isfinite(number): + return None + return number + + @classmethod + def _coerce_str_list(cls, value: object) -> list[str]: + """Coerce a list-ish field to a bounded list of non-empty strings.""" + if isinstance(value, str): + items = [value] + elif isinstance(value, (list, tuple, set)): + items = list(value) + else: + return [] + cleaned = [str(item).strip() for item in items if str(item).strip()] + return cleaned[: cls.MAX_LIST_ITEMS] + + @classmethod + def _signals_from_items( + cls, items: list, stock: str, text: str + ) -> list[ExtractedSignal]: + """Validate LLM signal entries against the ExtractedSignal contract.""" + signals: list[ExtractedSignal] = [] + dropped = 0 + repaired = 0 + for item in items: + if not isinstance(item, dict): + dropped += 1 + continue + signal, repairs = cls._signal_from_dict(item, stock, text) + if signal is None: + dropped += 1 + continue + repaired += repairs + signals.append(signal) + if dropped: + logger.warning( + "LLM signals: dropped %d invalid entr(ies) that violated the " + "ExtractedSignal contract", dropped, + ) + if repaired: + logger.warning( + "LLM signals: repaired %d out-of-contract field(s) " + "(clamped ranges / normalised enums)", repaired, + ) + return signals + + @classmethod + def _signal_from_dict( + cls, item: dict, stock: str, text: str + ) -> tuple[ExtractedSignal | None, int]: + """Build one validated ExtractedSignal; return (signal, repair_count).""" + repairs = 0 + + required = ("signal_type", "direction", "strength", "confidence") + missing = [name for name in required if name not in item] + if missing: + logger.warning( + "LLM signal dropped: missing required field(s) %s", missing, + ) + return None, 0 + + signal_type = item["signal_type"] + if not isinstance(signal_type, str): + logger.warning("LLM signal dropped: non-string signal_type %r", signal_type) + return None, 0 + signal_type = signal_type.strip().lower() + if signal_type not in cls._SIGNAL_TYPES: + logger.warning( + "LLM signal dropped: signal_type %r is not one of %s", + signal_type, sorted(cls._SIGNAL_TYPES), + ) + return None, 0 + + direction = item["direction"] + if not isinstance(direction, str): + direction = "neutral" + repairs += 1 + else: + raw_direction = direction.strip().lower() + mapped = cls._DIRECTION_ALIASES.get(raw_direction) + if mapped is None: + logger.warning( + "LLM signal: unknown direction %r normalised to 'neutral'", + direction, + ) + mapped = "neutral" + if mapped != raw_direction: + repairs += 1 + direction = mapped + + raw_strength = item["strength"] + strength = cls._coerce_float(raw_strength) + if strength is None: + logger.warning("LLM signal dropped: invalid strength %r", raw_strength) + return None, repairs + if not -1.0 <= strength <= 1.0: + strength = max(-1.0, min(1.0, strength)) + repairs += 1 + + raw_confidence = item["confidence"] + confidence = cls._coerce_float(raw_confidence) + if confidence is None: + logger.warning("LLM signal dropped: invalid confidence %r", raw_confidence) + return None, repairs + if not 0.0 <= confidence <= 1.0: + confidence = max(0.0, min(1.0, confidence)) + repairs += 1 + + reasoning = item.get("reasoning", "") + if reasoning is None: + reasoning = "" + elif not isinstance(reasoning, str): + reasoning = str(reasoning) + repairs += 1 + reasoning = reasoning[: cls.MAX_REASONING_CHARS] + + raw_implications = item.get("factor_implications", {}) + implications: dict[str, float] = {} + if raw_implications is None: + raw_implications = {} + if not isinstance(raw_implications, dict): + logger.warning( + "LLM signal: factor_implications is %s, expected a dict; ignored", + type(raw_implications).__name__, + ) + repairs += 1 + else: + for key, raw_value in raw_implications.items(): + value = cls._coerce_float(raw_value) + if not isinstance(key, str) or value is None: + repairs += 1 + continue + if not -1.0 <= value <= 1.0: + value = max(-1.0, min(1.0, value)) + repairs += 1 + implications[key] = value + + return ExtractedSignal( + stock=stock, + signal_type=signal_type, + direction=direction, + strength=strength, + confidence=confidence, + reasoning=reasoning, + source_text=text[:200], + factor_implications=implications, + ), repairs + + @classmethod + def _hypotheses_from_items( + cls, items: list, available_factors: list[str] | None + ) -> list[FactorHypothesis]: + """Validate LLM hypothesis entries against the FactorHypothesis contract.""" + hypotheses: list[FactorHypothesis] = [] + dropped = 0 + repaired = 0 + for item in items: + if not isinstance(item, dict): + dropped += 1 + continue + hypothesis, repairs = cls._hypothesis_from_dict(item, available_factors) + if hypothesis is None: + dropped += 1 + continue + repaired += repairs + hypotheses.append(hypothesis) + if dropped: + logger.warning( + "LLM hypotheses: dropped %d invalid entr(ies) that violated " + "the FactorHypothesis contract", dropped, + ) + if repaired: + logger.warning( + "LLM hypotheses: repaired %d out-of-contract field(s)", repaired, + ) + return hypotheses + + @classmethod + def _hypothesis_from_dict( + cls, item: dict, available_factors: list[str] | None + ) -> tuple[FactorHypothesis | None, int]: + """Build one validated FactorHypothesis; return (hypothesis, repairs).""" + repairs = 0 + + required = ("factor_name", "expected_ic", "confidence") + missing = [name for name in required if name not in item] + if missing: + logger.warning( + "LLM hypothesis dropped: missing required field(s) %s", missing, + ) + return None, 0 + + factor_name = item["factor_name"] + if not isinstance(factor_name, str) or not factor_name.strip(): + logger.warning("LLM hypothesis dropped: missing/invalid factor_name %r", factor_name) + return None, 0 + factor_name = factor_name.strip() + if available_factors is not None and factor_name not in available_factors: + logger.warning( + "LLM hypothesis: factor_name %r is not in available_factors; kept", + factor_name, + ) + + raw_expected_ic = item["expected_ic"] + expected_ic = cls._coerce_float(raw_expected_ic) + if expected_ic is None: + logger.warning("LLM hypothesis dropped: invalid expected_ic %r", raw_expected_ic) + return None, repairs + if not -1.0 <= expected_ic <= 1.0: + expected_ic = max(-1.0, min(1.0, expected_ic)) + repairs += 1 + + raw_confidence = item["confidence"] + confidence = cls._coerce_float(raw_confidence) + if confidence is None: + logger.warning("LLM hypothesis dropped: invalid confidence %r", raw_confidence) + return None, repairs + if not 0.0 <= confidence <= 1.0: + confidence = max(0.0, min(1.0, confidence)) + repairs += 1 + + description = item.get("description", "") + if description is None: + description = "" + elif not isinstance(description, str): + description = str(description) + repairs += 1 + description = description[:500] + + economic_logic = item.get("economic_logic", "") + if economic_logic is None: + economic_logic = "" + elif not isinstance(economic_logic, str): + economic_logic = str(economic_logic) + repairs += 1 + economic_logic = economic_logic[: cls.MAX_REASONING_CHARS] + + data_requirements = cls._coerce_str_list(item.get("data_requirements", [])) + risk_factors = cls._coerce_str_list(item.get("risk_factors", [])) + + return FactorHypothesis( + factor_name=factor_name, + description=description, + expected_ic=expected_ic, + economic_logic=economic_logic, + data_requirements=data_requirements, + risk_factors=risk_factors, + confidence=confidence, + ), repairs + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Internal helpers # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── def _call_llm(self, prompt: str) -> str: """Call OpenAI API with caching.""" + if not self.api_key: + raise RuntimeError( + "ResearchAgent LLM call refused: no DEEPSEEK_API_KEY / api_key " + "configured (the agent was downgraded to keyword mode)" + ) + + if len(prompt) > self.MAX_PROMPT_CHARS: + raise ValueError( + f"LLM prompt too long ({len(prompt)} chars; " + f"max {self.MAX_PROMPT_CHARS})" + ) + cache_key = hashlib.md5(prompt.encode()).hexdigest() if cache_key in self._cache: return self._cache[cache_key] @@ -495,19 +1057,31 @@ def _call_llm(self, prompt: str) -> str: temperature=0.1, ) result = response.choices[0].message.content.strip() + if len(self._cache) >= self.MAX_PROMPT_CACHE_ENTRIES: + # Bounded FIFO eviction; prompts are built from bounded inputs. + self._cache.pop(next(iter(self._cache))) self._cache[cache_key] = result return result @staticmethod - def _chunk_text(text: str, max_chars: int = 2000) -> list[str]: - """Split text into chunks respecting sentence boundaries.""" + def _chunk_text(text: str, max_chars: int = 1500) -> list[str]: + """Split text into chunks of at most ``max_chars`` characters. + + Sentence boundaries are preferred; a single sentence longer than + ``max_chars`` is hard-split so its tail is never silently dropped. + """ if len(text) <= max_chars: return [text] - chunks = [] - sentences = re.split(r'(?<=[。！？\n])', text) + chunks: list[str] = [] current = "" - for sentence in sentences: + for sentence in re.split(r'(?<=[。！？\n])', text): + while len(sentence) > max_chars: + if current: + chunks.append(current) + current = "" + chunks.append(sentence[:max_chars]) + sentence = sentence[max_chars:] if len(current) + len(sentence) > max_chars: if current: chunks.append(current) diff --git a/agent/sentiment_factor.py b/agent/sentiment_factor.py index bd75e27..2c32c27 100644 --- a/agent/sentiment_factor.py +++ b/agent/sentiment_factor.py @@ -1,27 +1,50 @@ """LLM-based sentiment factor for A-share stocks. -Extracts trading signals from unstructured financial text by simulating -LLM API calls (OpenAI-compatible). The factor scores news headlines on a --1 (extremely bearish) to +1 (extremely bullish) scale per stock per date. - -Key design decisions for production-readiness: -- Async batch processing with rate limiting -- Local cache with TTL to avoid redundant API calls -- Graceful degradation: returns neutral scores if API is unavailable +Extracts trading signals from unstructured financial text by scoring news +headlines on a -1 (extremely bearish) to +1 (extremely bullish) scale per +stock per date. + +Data sources (explicit, because it decides what the score means): +- ``compute(..., news={asset: {date: [headline, ...]}})`` scores *caller + supplied* headlines. This is the only path that produces real news + sentiment, and it is the only path usable with a real LLM backend unless + the caller explicitly opts into the synthetic demo. +- With no ``news`` argument the factor falls back to a built-in demo + generator that fabricates headlines from templates with an RNG. Those + scores are flagged ``is_synthetic=True`` (also stored in ``params`` and + set as ``data_source="synthetic_templates"``) and must not be used as + alpha or presented as news sentiment. There is no bundled news API + client: plug your provider in and pass the headlines. + +Backend honesty: +- ``use_real_llm=True`` without an API key is downgraded to the keyword + analyzer, and the object says so: ``requested_use_real_llm`` is True while + ``use_real_llm``/``is_llm`` are False and ``backend`` is ``"keyword"``. + Logs print the *actual* backend, never the requested one. +- With a real LLM backend, ``compute()`` refuses to run without + caller-supplied news (``allow_synthetic_llm=True`` opts into an explicitly + labeled synthetic demo) so fabricated templates are never silently sent to + a paid model and reported as LLM sentiment. + +Other production-readiness decisions: +- Async-friendly batch processing with rate limiting +- Local cache with a real TTL (per-entry timestamps; expired entries are + re-scored) and strict validation of persisted entries (finite, within + [-1, 1], versioned) so a corrupt cache cannot inject scores +- Graceful degradation: keyword fallback scores are retried, never persisted - Deterministic scoring prompts for reproducibility - -For interview demo: uses a keyword-based sentiment analyzer as the default -"simulated LLM" backend, with the option to swap in a real DeepSeek/LLM API call. -This demonstrates the architecture without requiring an API key. """ from __future__ import annotations import hashlib import json +import math import os import re +import tempfile import time +from collections.abc import Iterable, Mapping from pathlib import Path import numpy as np @@ -32,8 +55,9 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) -# Sample A-share financial news headlines for demo purposes -# In production, these would come from a news API (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, EastMoney) +# Sample A-share financial news headlines for the DEMO path only. +# These are fabricated from templates with an RNG; they are not news and the +# resulting scores are flagged synthetic by LLMSentimentFactor.compute(). SAMPLE_HEADLINES_POOL = [ # Bullish signals ("净利润同比增长{:.0f}%", 0.6), @@ -84,19 +108,32 @@ class LLMSentimentFactor(BaseFactor): - """LLM-augmented sentiment factor. + """Sentiment factor with a pluggable keyword or real-LLM analyzer. - Processes financial news headlines through an LLM (or simulated LLM) - to produce daily sentiment scores per stock. + Data sources: + - Caller-supplied headlines via ``compute(..., news=...)`` — real news + sentiment (``is_synthetic=False``). + - Built-in demo generator (no ``news`` argument) — fabricated template + headlines, ``is_synthetic=True``, not fit for alpha. Architecture: - - SentimentAnalyzer (abstract) -> KeywordAnalyzer | OpenAI Analyzer - - NewsProvider -> SampleNewsProvider | RealNewsAPI - - Caching layer to avoid redundant LLM calls + - SentimentAnalyzer (abstract) -> KeywordSentimentAnalyzer | + OpenAISentimentAnalyzer + - News is supplied by the caller; this module ships no news API client. + - Caching layer with per-entry TTL and validated, versioned entries. """ category = FactorCategory.CUSTOM + #: Maximum characters of a single headline accepted/scored. Longer input + #: is truncated (and logged) so a hostile or broken upstream feed cannot + #: push unbounded text into an LLM prompt or the cache key. + MAX_HEADLINE_CHARS = 500 + + #: Maximum headlines scored per asset-day bucket. Extras are dropped with + #: a warning; the cap keeps LLM request volume bounded. + MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY = 20 + def __init__( self, api_key: str | None = None, @@ -105,89 +142,277 @@ def __init__( lookback_days: int = 5, cache_dir: str | None = None, name: str = "llm_sentiment", + cache_ttl_days: float | None = 7.0, + allow_synthetic_llm: bool = False, + max_cache_entries: int = 100_000, + max_cache_file_bytes: int = 64 * 1024 * 1024, ): """ Args: api_key: DeepSeek API key. If None, uses DEEPSEEK_API_KEY env var. model: LLM model to use (default: deepseek-chat). - use_real_llm: If True, calls DeepSeek/LLM API. If False, uses keyword analyzer. + use_real_llm: If True, requests the DeepSeek LLM backend. Without + an API key the factor is *explicitly downgraded* to the + keyword analyzer (``requested_use_real_llm`` True, + ``use_real_llm`` False, ``backend`` "keyword") and a warning + is logged. lookback_days: How many past days of news to aggregate. cache_dir: Directory for sentiment cache. name: Factor name. + cache_ttl_days: Age in days after which a cached score is + re-computed. ``None`` disables expiry. + allow_synthetic_llm: If True, a real-LLM backend may score the + fabricated template headlines (explicit demo only; output + stays flagged ``is_synthetic=True``). Default False: the + real-LLM path requires caller-supplied ``news``. + max_cache_entries: In-memory cache size cap; the oldest ~10% of + entries are evicted when it is reached. + max_cache_file_bytes: Refuse to load a cache file larger than + this (guards against a poisoned/oversized file). """ + if int(lookback_days) != lookback_days or lookback_days < 1: + raise ValueError("lookback_days must be an integer >= 1") + if cache_ttl_days is not None and not float(cache_ttl_days) > 0: + raise ValueError("cache_ttl_days must be positive or None") + if int(max_cache_entries) != max_cache_entries or max_cache_entries < 1: + raise ValueError("max_cache_entries must be an integer >= 1") + if max_cache_file_bytes < 1: + raise ValueError("max_cache_file_bytes must be positive") + super().__init__({ "model": model, - "use_real_llm": use_real_llm, - "lookback_days": lookback_days, + "requested_use_real_llm": bool(use_real_llm), + "lookback_days": int(lookback_days), + "cache_ttl_days": cache_ttl_days, }) self._name = name self.api_key = api_key or os.environ.get("DEEPSEEK_API_KEY") self.model = model - self.use_real_llm = use_real_llm - self.lookback_days = lookback_days + self.lookback_days = int(lookback_days) + self.cache_ttl_days = cache_ttl_days + self.cache_ttl_seconds = ( + None if cache_ttl_days is None else float(cache_ttl_days) * 86400.0 + ) + self.max_cache_entries = int(max_cache_entries) + self.max_cache_file_bytes = int(max_cache_file_bytes) + self._allow_synthetic_llm = bool(allow_synthetic_llm) + # Constructor params are immutable provenance; per-run provenance is + # built into a *new* dict in compute() so an earlier FactorResult is + # never retroactively relabeled by a later run. + self._base_params = dict(self.params) self.cache_dir = Path(cache_dir) if cache_dir else Path("./.sentiment_cache") self.cache_dir.mkdir(exist_ok=True) - # Select analyzer + # What the caller asked for vs. what will actually run. Only the + # effective backend is exposed through ``use_real_llm``/``backend``; + # the request is preserved separately so the downgrade is visible. + self.requested_use_real_llm = bool(use_real_llm) if use_real_llm and self.api_key: self.analyzer = OpenAISentimentAnalyzer(self.api_key, self.model) else: self.analyzer = KeywordSentimentAnalyzer() + if self.backend_downgraded: + logger.warning( + "use_real_llm=True requested but no API key is available " + "(DEEPSEEK_API_KEY unset); downgraded to KeywordSentimentAnalyzer: " + "backend=%s, is_llm=False. This run will NOT produce LLM output.", + self.backend, + ) - # In-memory cache: {(headline_hash, date): score} - self._cache: dict[str, float] = {} + # Provenance for the last compute() call. Defaults describe the + # no-news demo path; compute() updates them. + self.is_synthetic: bool = True + self.data_source: str = "synthetic_templates" + + # Run-level analyzer outcome. ``n_fallback_scores`` counts calls that + # silently degraded (LLM error -> keyword); a real-LLM run with + # fallback scores is partly keyword output and says so in params/logs. + self.n_analyzer_calls = 0 + self.n_fallback_scores = 0 + self.last_fallback_reason: str | None = None + + # In-memory cache: {cache_key: {"score": float, "ts": float, + # "retryable": bool}}. The key covers everything that can change a + # score (headline, asset, analyzer type, model, prompt version and + # date). The previous key was just (headline, date), so the same + # headline scored for stock A was served to stock B, and a + # DeepSeek -> keyword fallback was persisted as if it were the + # model's answer. + self._cache: dict[str, dict] = {} + self._unsaved_entries = 0 self._load_cache() + # Cache layout version. Bumped whenever the key composition or the entry + # shape changes: an old file cannot be trusted under the new key, so it is + # ignored rather than migrated. Version 4 folds the user-message template + # and the live analyzer model into the key (version 3 added TTL/entry + # versions). + _CACHE_VERSION = 4 + + _CACHE_FILENAME = "sentiment_cache.json" + + #: Clock-skew tolerance for persisted entry timestamps (seconds). An entry + #: stamped in the future beyond this window is treated as invalid. + _MAX_CLOCK_SKEW = 86400.0 + @property def name(self) -> str: return self._name + @property + def is_llm(self) -> bool: + """True only when the *actual* analyzer is the real LLM client.""" + return isinstance(self.analyzer, OpenAISentimentAnalyzer) + + @property + def use_real_llm(self) -> bool: + """Effective backend flag (never the requested-but-downgraded one).""" + return self.is_llm + + @property + def backend(self) -> str: + """Machine-readable label for the analyzer that actually runs.""" + if isinstance(self.analyzer, OpenAISentimentAnalyzer): + return f"llm:{self.model}" + if isinstance(self.analyzer, KeywordSentimentAnalyzer): + return "keyword" + return type(self.analyzer).__name__ + + @property + def backend_downgraded(self) -> bool: + """True when a real-LLM backend was requested but keyword runs. + + Derived from the live analyzer, so it stays truthful even if the + analyzer object is replaced after construction. + """ + return self.requested_use_real_llm and not self.is_llm + def compute( self, prices: pd.DataFrame, financials: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + news: Mapping | None = None, + headlines: Mapping | None = None, **kwargs, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Compute LLM sentiment scores for all assets across all dates. + """Compute sentiment scores for all assets across all dates. - For each date, generates/retrieves news headlines for each stock, - runs LLM sentiment analysis, and aggregates into a DataFrame. + Args: + prices: Price panel (date x asset). Only the index/columns are + used; values do not enter the score. + financials: Ignored (factor signature compatibility). + news: Caller-supplied headlines, shaped as + ``{asset: {date-like: [headline, ...]}}`` (a single string + per date is also accepted). Dates are matched to the price + index after normalisation; asset keys are matched by their + string form. Days without supplied headlines are missing + (NaN) before smoothing; with ``lookback_days > 1`` the rolling + mean can carry a supplied score forward for a few days. No + template headlines are fabricated for missing days. Passing + this makes ``is_synthetic`` False. + headlines: Alias for ``news`` (pass exactly one). + + Returns: + DataFrame (date x asset) of sentiment scores in [-1, 1]. + + Raises: + ValueError: if both ``news`` and ``headlines`` are given, if a + real-LLM backend was selected without caller-supplied news + (unless ``allow_synthetic_llm=True``), or for invalid + configuration values. + TypeError: if ``news`` is not a mapping. """ + if news is not None and headlines is not None: + raise ValueError("pass either news= or headlines=, not both") + supplied = news if news is not None else headlines + + self.n_analyzer_calls = 0 + self.n_fallback_scores = 0 + self.last_fallback_reason = None + + if ( + supplied is None + and self.is_llm + and not self._allow_synthetic_llm + ): + raise ValueError( + "LLMSentimentFactor: the real-LLM backend is active but no " + "caller-supplied news was passed. Refusing to send fabricated " + "template headlines to the model. Pass " + "news={asset: {date: [headline, ...]}} or construct with " + "allow_synthetic_llm=True for an explicitly labeled synthetic demo." + ) + assets = prices.columns dates = prices.index n_dates = len(dates) n_assets = len(assets) + prepared: dict[tuple[object, pd.Timestamp], list[str]] | None + if supplied is None: + self.is_synthetic = True + self.data_source = "synthetic_templates" + prepared = None + logger.warning( + "LLMSentimentFactor demo mode: no caller-supplied news, so " + "headlines are generated from %d templates with an RNG. Scores " + "are SYNTHETIC (is_synthetic=True, data_source=synthetic_templates) " + "and must not be used as alpha or reported as news sentiment. " + "Pass news={asset: {date: [headline, ...]}} for real data.", + len(SAMPLE_HEADLINES_POOL), + ) + else: + self.is_synthetic = False + self.data_source = "caller_supplied_news" + prepared = self._prepare_news(supplied, assets, dates) + logger.info( + "LLMSentimentFactor using caller-supplied news: %d asset-day " + "bucket(s) across %d asset(s)", + len(prepared), n_assets, + ) + logger.info( - "LLM Sentiment Factor: %d assets x %d dates, backend=%s", + "LLM Sentiment Factor: %d assets x %d dates, backend=%s " + "(requested=%s, synthetic=%s, data_source=%s)", n_assets, n_dates, - "DeepSeek" if self.use_real_llm else "Keyword (simulated)", + self.backend, + "llm" if self.requested_use_real_llm else "keyword", + self.is_synthetic, + self.data_source, ) - # Generate per-stock news headlines (deterministic based on asset + date) - rng = np.random.default_rng(hash(42)) sentiment = np.full((n_dates, n_assets), np.nan) - for di, date in enumerate(dates): - if di % 100 == 0: - logger.debug("Sentiment: processing date %d/%d", di + 1, n_dates) - - for ai, asset in enumerate(assets): - # Generate headlines for this stock on this date - headlines = self._get_headlines(asset, date, rng) - - if not headlines: - continue - - # Score each headline via LLM/simulated analyzer - scores = [] - for headline in headlines: - score = self._analyze_headline(headline, asset, date) - scores.append(score) - - # Aggregate: exponential decay weighted toward recent news - # (all headlines are same date here, so equal weight) - sentiment[di, ai] = np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0 + if prepared is not None: + prepared_news = prepared + for di, date in enumerate(dates): + if di % 100 == 0: + logger.debug("Sentiment: processing date %d/%d", di + 1, n_dates) + key_date = self._normalise_date(date) + for ai, asset in enumerate(assets): + headlines = prepared_news.get((asset, key_date), []) + if not headlines: + continue + scores = [ + self._analyze_headline(headline, asset, date) + for headline in headlines + ] + sentiment[di, ai] = np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0 + else: + # Demo path: deterministic per-asset RNG drives template choice. + rng = np.random.default_rng(hash(42)) + for di, date in enumerate(dates): + if di % 100 == 0: + logger.debug("Sentiment: processing date %d/%d", di + 1, n_dates) + for ai, asset in enumerate(assets): + headlines = self._get_headlines(asset, date, rng) + if not headlines: + continue + scores = [ + self._analyze_headline(headline, asset, date) + for headline in headlines + ] + sentiment[di, ai] = np.mean(scores) if scores else 0.0 result = pd.DataFrame(sentiment, index=dates, columns=assets) @@ -195,22 +420,180 @@ def compute( if self.lookback_days > 1: result = result.rolling(self.lookback_days, min_periods=1).mean() - logger.info("LLM sentiment computed: mean=%.3f, std=%.3f", - result.mean().mean(), result.std().mean()) + if self.n_fallback_scores: + logger.warning( + "Sentiment run partially degraded: %d of %d analyzer call(s) " + "fell back to keywords (backend=%s). Those scores are keyword " + "output, not LLM output; reason=%s", + self.n_fallback_scores, self.n_analyzer_calls, + self.backend, self.last_fallback_reason, + ) + + self.params = { + **self._base_params, + "requested_use_real_llm": self.requested_use_real_llm, + "effective_backend": self.backend, + "is_synthetic": self.is_synthetic, + "data_source": self.data_source, + "n_analyzer_calls": self.n_analyzer_calls, + "n_fallback_scores": self.n_fallback_scores, + "fallback_reason": self.last_fallback_reason, + } + + logger.info( + "Sentiment computed: mean=%.3f, std=%.3f (backend=%s, synthetic=%s, " + "fallback_scores=%d/%d)", + result.mean().mean(), result.std().mean(), + self.backend, self.is_synthetic, + self.n_fallback_scores, self.n_analyzer_calls, + ) return result # ------------------------------------------------------------------ - # Headline generation (simulated) + # Caller-supplied news ingestion + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _normalise_date(value: object) -> pd.Timestamp | None: + """Parse a date-like value to a naive, normalised Timestamp.""" + try: + stamp = pd.Timestamp(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return None + if pd.isna(stamp): + return None + if stamp.tzinfo is not None: + stamp = stamp.tz_localize(None) + return stamp.normalize() + + def _prepare_news( + self, + news: object, + assets: Iterable[object], + dates: Iterable[object], + ) -> dict[tuple[object, pd.Timestamp], list[str]]: + """Validate and index caller-supplied headlines. + + Unknown assets/dates and malformed headline entries are warned about + and skipped; oversized input is truncated to keep prompts bounded. + """ + if not isinstance(news, Mapping): + raise TypeError( + "news must be a mapping {asset: {date: [headline, ...]}}; " + f"got {type(news).__name__}" + ) + + asset_lookup: dict[str, object] = {str(asset): asset for asset in assets} + price_dates = { + key for key in (self._normalise_date(date) for date in dates) + if key is not None + } + prepared: dict[tuple[object, pd.Timestamp], list[str]] = {} + skipped_assets = 0 + skipped_dates = 0 + skipped_headlines = 0 + + for asset_key, per_date in news.items(): + asset = asset_lookup.get(str(asset_key)) + if asset is None: + skipped_assets += 1 + logger.warning( + "news: asset %r is not in the price panel; ignoring its headlines", + asset_key, + ) + continue + if not isinstance(per_date, Mapping): + skipped_dates += 1 + logger.warning( + "news[%r] must map date-like keys to headlines; got %s", + asset_key, type(per_date).__name__, + ) + continue + + for date_key, raw_headlines in per_date.items(): + key_date = self._normalise_date(date_key) + if key_date is None or key_date not in price_dates: + skipped_dates += 1 + logger.warning( + "news[%r]: date %r is not in the price index; ignored", + asset_key, date_key, + ) + continue + + if isinstance(raw_headlines, str): + raw_headlines = [raw_headlines] + if isinstance(raw_headlines, Mapping) or not isinstance( + raw_headlines, Iterable + ): + skipped_headlines += 1 + logger.warning( + "news[%r][%r] must be a string or list of strings; got %s", + asset_key, date_key, type(raw_headlines).__name__, + ) + continue + + cleaned: list[str] = [] + for headline in raw_headlines: + if not isinstance(headline, str): + skipped_headlines += 1 + logger.warning( + "news[%r][%r]: non-string headline %r ignored", + asset_key, date_key, headline, + ) + continue + text = headline.strip() + if not text: + continue + if len(text) > self.MAX_HEADLINE_CHARS: + logger.warning( + "news[%r][%r]: headline truncated from %d to %d chars", + asset_key, date_key, len(text), self.MAX_HEADLINE_CHARS, + ) + text = text[: self.MAX_HEADLINE_CHARS] + cleaned.append(text) + + if len(cleaned) > self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY: + logger.warning( + "news[%r][%r]: %d headlines supplied, keeping the first %d", + asset_key, date_key, len(cleaned), + self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY, + ) + cleaned = cleaned[: self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY] + + if cleaned: + bucket_key = (asset, key_date) + merged = prepared.get(bucket_key, []) + cleaned + if len(merged) > self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY: + logger.warning( + "news[%r][%r]: %d headlines after merging duplicate " + "date keys, keeping the first %d", + asset_key, date_key, len(merged), + self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY, + ) + merged = merged[: self.MAX_HEADLINES_PER_ASSET_DAY] + prepared[bucket_key] = merged + + if skipped_assets or skipped_dates or skipped_headlines: + logger.warning( + "news ingestion skipped %d unknown asset(s), %d date entr(ies) " + "and %d malformed headline(s)", + skipped_assets, skipped_dates, skipped_headlines, + ) + return prepared + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Headline generation (explicitly synthetic demo path) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _get_headlines( self, asset: str, date: pd.Timestamp, rng: np.random.Generator ) -> list[str]: - """Get news headlines for a stock on a given date. + """Generate DEMO headlines for a stock on a given date. - In production: fetch from news API (Bloomberg, EastMoney, etc.). - For demo: generate realistic headlines using templates. + These headlines are fabricated from templates with an RNG — they are + not news. ``compute()`` labels any score produced from them + ``is_synthetic=True``. Real data must be passed via ``news=``. """ # Each stock has a ~15% chance of having news on any given day if rng.random() > 0.15: @@ -257,57 +640,355 @@ def _fill_template(self, template: str, rng: np.random.Generator) -> str: def _analyze_headline(self, headline: str, asset: str, date: pd.Timestamp) -> float: """Analyze sentiment of a single headline. - Results cached by (headline, date) hash to avoid redundant calls. + Results are cached under a key covering the headline, asset, analyzer + type, model, prompt version and date. Entries expire after + ``cache_ttl_days``. A fallback score (the LLM call failed and the + keyword analyzer answered instead) stays in memory for this session + but is *not* written to disk and is retried on the next call, so an + outage cannot pin a degraded score into the cache. """ - cache_key = hashlib.md5( - f"{headline}|{date.date()}".encode() - ).hexdigest() - - if cache_key in self._cache: - return self._cache[cache_key] + headline = str(headline)[: self.MAX_HEADLINE_CHARS] + cache_key = self._make_cache_key(headline, asset, date) + now = time.time() + + entry = self._cache.get(cache_key) + if entry is not None: + if isinstance(entry, Mapping) and not entry.get("retryable", False): + cached_score = self._valid_score(entry.get("score")) + if cached_score is not None and not self._entry_expired(entry, now): + return cached_score + # Invalid, expired or malformed: drop it and re-score. + self._cache.pop(cache_key, None) # Analyze sentiment - score = self.analyzer.analyze(headline, asset) + self.n_analyzer_calls += 1 + raw_score = self.analyzer.analyze(headline, asset) + retryable = bool(getattr(self.analyzer, "last_analyze_fallback", False)) + score = self._valid_score(raw_score) + fallback_reason: str | None = None + if score is None: + logger.warning( + "Analyzer %s returned an invalid score %r for headline %r; " + "recording 0.0 and leaving the entry retryable", + type(self.analyzer).__name__, raw_score, headline[:80], + ) + score = 0.0 + retryable = True + fallback_reason = ( + f"analyzer {type(self.analyzer).__name__} returned an invalid " + f"score ({raw_score!r})" + ) + elif retryable: + fallback_reason = ( + getattr(self.analyzer, "last_fallback_error", None) + or f"{type(self.analyzer).__name__} fell back to keywords" + ) + if fallback_reason is not None: + self.n_fallback_scores += 1 + self.last_fallback_reason = fallback_reason - # Cache - self._cache[cache_key] = score - self._save_cache_entry(cache_key, headline, asset, date, score) + self._maybe_evict_cache() + self._cache[cache_key] = {"score": score, "ts": now, "retryable": retryable} + if not retryable: + self._unsaved_entries += 1 + self._maybe_save_cache() return score + def _make_cache_key( + self, headline: str, asset: str, date: pd.Timestamp + ) -> str: + """Build a cache key that distinguishes everything affecting a score. + + Two different assets sharing a headline must not share a score (the + LLM prompt carries the stock), nor may a keyword fallback be replayed + under the real model's name, nor may a prompt change silently reuse + answers computed under the old instructions. + """ + payload = { + "headline": headline, + "asset": str(asset), + "analyzer": type(self.analyzer).__name__, + # The live analyzer's model, not just the factor's configured one: + # swapping in an analyzer trained on a different model must not + # reuse the old model's answers. + "model": str(getattr(self.analyzer, "model", self.model)), + "prompt": self._prompt_fingerprint(), + "date": pd.Timestamp(date).date().isoformat(), + } + encoded = json.dumps(payload, sort_keys=True, ensure_ascii=False) + return hashlib.sha256(encoded.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest() + + def _prompt_fingerprint(self) -> str: + """Version the analysis instructions, not just their presence.""" + prompt = getattr(self.analyzer, "SYSTEM_PROMPT", "") or "" + user_template = getattr(self.analyzer, "USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE", "") or "" + if not prompt: + # Keyword scoring has no prompt; its keyword lists are the rule + # set. Fingerprint them so edits invalidate stored answers too. + keywords = [] + for attr in ("BULLISH_KEYWORDS", "BEARISH_KEYWORDS"): + values = getattr(self.analyzer, attr, None) + if isinstance(values, (list, tuple)): + keywords.extend(str(v) for v in values) + prompt = "|".join(keywords) + # The user-message template is part of the instructions too. + fingerprint_source = f"{prompt}|user:{user_template}" + return hashlib.sha256(fingerprint_source.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()[:16] + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Score / entry validation + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _valid_score(value: object) -> float | None: + """Return the score as a float if it is finite and within [-1, 1].""" + if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance( + value, (int, float, np.integer, np.floating) + ): + return None + score = float(value) + if not math.isfinite(score) or not -1.0 <= score <= 1.0: + return None + return score + + @staticmethod + def _valid_timestamp(value: object) -> float | None: + """Return the timestamp as a float epoch if it looks like one.""" + if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance( + value, (int, float, np.integer, np.floating) + ): + return None + stamp = float(value) + if not math.isfinite(stamp) or stamp <= 0: + return None + return stamp + + def _entry_expired(self, entry: Mapping, now: float | None = None) -> bool: + """True when an in-memory cache entry is past its TTL.""" + if self.cache_ttl_seconds is None: + return False + stamp = self._valid_timestamp(entry.get("ts")) + if stamp is None: + return True + now = time.time() if now is None else now + if stamp > now + self._MAX_CLOCK_SKEW: + return True + return now - stamp > self.cache_ttl_seconds + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Cache persistence # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + @property + def _cache_file(self) -> Path: + return self.cache_dir / self._CACHE_FILENAME + + def _normalise_entry(self, value: object, now: float | None = None) -> dict | None: + """Accept only a well-formed, versioned, unexpired persisted entry.""" + if not isinstance(value, dict): + return None + if value.get("version") != self._CACHE_VERSION: + return None + # A persisted retryable/fallback entry must never be promoted to a + # trusted answer (fallbacks are supposed to stay in memory only). + if value.get("retryable"): + return None + score = self._valid_score(value.get("score")) + stamp = self._valid_timestamp(value.get("ts")) + if score is None or stamp is None: + return None + now = time.time() if now is None else now + if stamp > now + self._MAX_CLOCK_SKEW: + return None + if self.cache_ttl_seconds is not None and now - stamp > self.cache_ttl_seconds: + return None + return {"score": score, "ts": stamp, "retryable": False} + def _load_cache(self) -> None: - """Load persisted cache from disk.""" - cache_file = self.cache_dir / "sentiment_cache.json" - if cache_file.exists(): - try: - with open(cache_file, encoding="utf-8") as f: - data = json.load(f) - self._cache = data - logger.debug("Loaded %d cached sentiment scores", len(data)) - except Exception: - self._cache = {} - - def _save_cache_entry( - self, key: str, headline: str, asset: str, - date: pd.Timestamp, score: float, - ) -> None: - """Append a single cache entry to disk (batched by session).""" - # Save every 100th entry to reduce I/O - if len(self._cache) % 100 == 0: + """Load persisted cache from disk. + + A corrupt or outdated file must never wipe the in-memory cache: it is + warned about and left untouched for inspection, and the session simply + starts from what it already holds. Individual entries are validated + (version, finite score in [-1, 1], timestamp, TTL); invalid or expired + entries are dropped with a warning instead of being served. + """ + cache_file = self._cache_file + if not cache_file.exists(): + return + try: + file_size = cache_file.stat().st_size + except OSError as e: + logger.warning("Sentiment cache %s is not readable (%s); ignored", cache_file, e) + return + if file_size > self.max_cache_file_bytes: + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache %s is %d bytes, above the %d-byte limit; " + "ignoring it (in-memory cache kept)", + cache_file, file_size, self.max_cache_file_bytes, + ) + return + try: + with open(cache_file, encoding="utf-8") as f: + data = json.load(f) + except Exception as e: + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache %s is unreadable (%s); keeping the in-memory " + "cache and leaving the file in place", + cache_file, e, + ) + return + + if ( + not isinstance(data, dict) + or data.get("version") != self._CACHE_VERSION + or not isinstance(data.get("entries"), dict) + ): + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache %s has version/layout %r, expected %d; " + "ignoring it (in-memory cache kept)", + cache_file, + data.get("version") if isinstance(data, dict) else type(data).__name__, + self._CACHE_VERSION, + ) + return + + now = time.time() + loaded = {} + dropped = 0 + for key, value in data["entries"].items(): + entry = self._normalise_entry(value, now=now) + if not isinstance(key, str) or entry is None: + dropped += 1 + continue + loaded[key] = entry + self._cache = loaded + if len(loaded) > self.max_cache_entries: + overflow = len(loaded) - self.max_cache_entries + for key in self._oldest_keys(loaded, overflow): + loaded.pop(key, None) + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache %s: loaded %d entries; kept the %d newest", + cache_file, len(loaded) + overflow, len(loaded), + ) + if dropped: + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache %s: ignored %d invalid or expired entr(ies)", + cache_file, dropped, + ) + logger.debug("Loaded %d cached sentiment scores", len(loaded)) + + def _maybe_save_cache(self) -> None: + """Flush every 100 new entries to reduce I/O.""" + if self._unsaved_entries >= 100: self._save_cache() + def _oldest_keys(self, cache: Mapping, count: int) -> list[str]: + """Return the ``count`` cache keys with the oldest (or missing) ts.""" + if count <= 0: + return [] + + def _sort_key(key: str) -> float: + entry = cache.get(key) + if not isinstance(entry, Mapping): + return 0.0 + stamp = self._valid_timestamp(entry.get("ts")) + return 0.0 if stamp is None else stamp + + return sorted(cache, key=_sort_key)[:count] + + def _maybe_evict_cache(self) -> None: + """Keep the in-memory cache bounded, evicting the oldest ~10%.""" + if len(self._cache) < self.max_cache_entries: + return + target = max(1, self.max_cache_entries // 10) + oldest = self._oldest_keys(self._cache, target) + for key in oldest: + self._cache.pop(key, None) + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache reached %d entries; evicted the %d oldest", + self.max_cache_entries, len(oldest), + ) + def _save_cache(self) -> None: - """Persist full cache to disk.""" - cache_file = self.cache_dir / "sentiment_cache.json" + """Persist the cache atomically (temp file + ``os.replace``). + + Writing JSON in place left a truncated file if the process died + mid-dump, and the old loader then wiped every score. Retryable + (fallback) entries are deliberately not written, and entries whose + score is not finite / within [-1, 1] are rejected instead of being + persisted, so a corrupted in-memory value cannot poison the file. + """ + now = time.time() + entries = {} + dropped = 0 + for key, entry in self._cache.items(): + if not isinstance(key, str) or not isinstance(entry, Mapping): + dropped += 1 + continue + if entry.get("retryable", False): + continue + score = self._valid_score(entry.get("score")) + if score is None: + dropped += 1 + continue + stamp = self._valid_timestamp(entry.get("ts")) + if stamp is None or stamp > now + self._MAX_CLOCK_SKEW: + # Repair a missing/absurd timestamp to "now". + stamp = now + elif self.cache_ttl_seconds is not None and now - stamp > self.cache_ttl_seconds: + # Expired scores are not worth persisting; they are re-scored + # on the next run either way. + continue + entries[key] = { + "score": score, + "ts": stamp, + "version": self._CACHE_VERSION, + } + if dropped: + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache: refusing to persist %d invalid entr(ies)", dropped, + ) + if len(entries) > self.max_cache_entries: + overflow = len(entries) - self.max_cache_entries + for key in self._oldest_keys(entries, overflow): + entries.pop(key, None) + logger.warning( + "Sentiment cache: keeping the %d newest of %d entries", + self.max_cache_entries, self.max_cache_entries + overflow, + ) + payload = {"version": self._CACHE_VERSION, "entries": entries} + cache_file = self._cache_file + + tmp_name = None try: - with open(cache_file, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: - json.dump(self._cache, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2) + self.cache_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + fd, tmp_name = tempfile.mkstemp( + prefix=f"{cache_file.name}.", suffix=".tmp", dir=self.cache_dir, + ) + with os.fdopen(fd, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: + json.dump(payload, f, ensure_ascii=False) + f.flush() + os.fsync(f.fileno()) + written = os.fstat(f.fileno()).st_size + if written > self.max_cache_file_bytes: + # Never write a file our own loader would refuse to read. + raise ValueError( + f"serialized sentiment cache is {written} bytes, above the " + f"{self.max_cache_file_bytes}-byte limit; keeping the old file" + ) + os.replace(tmp_name, cache_file) + tmp_name = None + self._unsaved_entries = 0 except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Failed to save cache: %s", e) + logger.warning("Failed to save sentiment cache: %s", e) + finally: + if tmp_name is not None: + try: + os.unlink(tmp_name) + except OSError: + pass # ====================================================================== @@ -317,6 +998,13 @@ def _save_cache(self) -> None: class SentimentAnalyzer: """Abstract sentiment analyzer.""" + # Set by an analyzer whose last call silently degraded (e.g. the LLM API + # failed and a keyword score stood in for it). The factor uses this to keep + # fallback scores out of the persistent cache. + last_analyze_fallback: bool = False + # Human-readable reason for the last fallback (exception text). + last_fallback_error: str | None = None + def analyze(self, headline: str, asset: str = "") -> float: """Return sentiment score: -1 (bearish) to +1 (bullish).""" raise NotImplementedError @@ -334,19 +1022,22 @@ class KeywordSentimentAnalyzer(SentimentAnalyzer): - A pre-filter to only send ambiguous headlines to the LLM """ - # Chinese financial sentiment keywords - BULLISH_KEYWORDS = [ + # Chinese financial sentiment keywords. De-duplicated on construction so a + # headline matching one keyword is counted once: the old lists contained + # "增持" (bullish) and "减持" (bearish) twice, so a mixed headline scored + # 0.2 instead of 1/3. + BULLISH_KEYWORDS = list(dict.fromkeys([ "增长", "超预期", "回购", "增持", "中标", "突破", "创新", "利好", "分红", "补贴", "订单", "合作", "新市场", "专利", "认可", "景气", "预增", "提升", - "买入", "增持", "看好", "反转", "筑底", "复苏", - ] - BEARISH_KEYWORDS = [ + "买入", "看好", "反转", "筑底", "复苏", + ])) + BEARISH_KEYWORDS = list(dict.fromkeys([ "下降", "减持", "亏损", "违规", "监管", "问询", "减值", "违约", "调查", "处罚", "辞职", "停产", "召回", "投诉", "危机", "下滑", "预亏", "收紧", - "评级下调", "卖出", "减持", "看空", "泡沫", "崩盘", - ] + "评级下调", "卖出", "看空", "泡沫", "崩盘", + ])) def analyze(self, headline: str, asset: str = "") -> float: """Score headline by counting bullish vs bearish keywords.""" @@ -384,6 +1075,9 @@ class OpenAISentimentAnalyzer(SentimentAnalyzer): Output format: just the number, e.g. "0.6" or "-0.3". Nothing else.""" + #: User-message template; part of the prompt fingerprint. + USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = "Stock: {asset}\nHeadline: {headline}" + def __init__(self, api_key: str, model: str = "deepseek-chat"): self.api_key = api_key self.model = model @@ -391,9 +1085,18 @@ def __init__(self, api_key: str, model: str = "deepseek-chat"): self._api_base = "https://api.deepseek.com/v1" self._request_count = 0 self._last_request_time = 0.0 + self.last_analyze_fallback = False + self.last_fallback_error: str | None = None def analyze(self, headline: str, asset: str = "") -> float: """Call DeepSeek API for sentiment analysis.""" + self.last_analyze_fallback = False + self.last_fallback_error = None + # Defensive caps: prompts must stay bounded even if the analyzer is + # called directly (outside LLMSentimentFactor's own validation). + headline = str(headline)[:500] + asset = str(asset)[:100] + # Rate limiting: max 50 requests per second elapsed = time.monotonic() - self._last_request_time if elapsed < 0.02: # 50 req/s @@ -408,7 +1111,9 @@ def analyze(self, headline: str, asset: str = "") -> float: model=self.model, messages=[ {"role": "system", "content": self.SYSTEM_PROMPT}, - {"role": "user", "content": f"Stock: {asset}\nHeadline: {headline}"}, + {"role": "user", "content": self.USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format( + asset=asset, headline=headline, + )}, ], max_tokens=10, temperature=0.0, # Deterministic @@ -424,4 +1129,6 @@ def analyze(self, headline: str, asset: str = "") -> float: except Exception as e: logger.warning("OpenAI API call failed: %s, falling back to keyword analyzer", e) + self.last_analyze_fallback = True + self.last_fallback_error = str(e) return KeywordSentimentAnalyzer().analyze(headline, asset) diff --git a/alpha/combination.py b/alpha/combination.py index bf4aed8..8f5cc5d 100644 --- a/alpha/combination.py +++ b/alpha/combination.py @@ -203,28 +203,45 @@ def _build_row( weights: dict[str, float], date: pd.Timestamp, ) -> pd.Series | None: - """Build a single row of weighted factor values for one date.""" - row = None + """Build a single row of weighted factor values for one date. + + Missing factor values are filled with 0 -- the cross-sectional mean of a + z-scored factor -- and the denominator is the *fixed* sum of |weight|, not + the weight of the factors that happen to be present for each asset. + + The previous mask-aware denominator renormalised per asset: an asset + missing the dominant factor had its remaining weight scaled back up to 1, + so under 0.8/0.2 weights it was scored on the 0.2 factor alone and could + outrank an asset that had both. A missing value must be neutral, not a + promotion. + """ + total_abs = sum( + abs(weights.get(name, 0.0)) for name in aligned + ) + if total_abs < 1e-10: + return None + + numerator = None + has_values = False for name, factor in aligned.items(): w = weights.get(name, 0.0) if abs(w) < 1e-10: continue if date not in factor.index: + # Its weight still counts in the fixed denominator: an absent + # factor is a zero, not an excuse to scale the rest up. continue + has_values = True vals = factor.loc[date] - if not vals.notna().any(): - # A factor with nothing to say about this cross-section used to - # seed the sum with an all-NaN row, and NaN + x is NaN, so every - # other factor's values for the date were lost with it. Skipping - # it keeps the row's meaning: the weighted sum of what the factors - # actually have. Which factors were summed no longer depends on - # the order they happen to sit in the dict. - continue - if row is None: - row = vals * w + contribution = (vals * w).fillna(0.0) + if numerator is None: + numerator = contribution else: - row = row + vals * w - return row + numerator = numerator.add(contribution, fill_value=0.0) + + if numerator is None or not has_values: + return None + return numerator / total_abs def _asset_universe(factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame]) -> pd.Index: @@ -306,21 +323,32 @@ def _weighted_sum( factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], weights: dict[str, float], ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Compute weighted sum of factor values (static weights, all dates).""" - result = None + """Weighted factor average with a fixed denominator. + + Missing cells are filled with 0 (the cross-sectional mean of a z-scored + factor) and the denominator is ``sum(abs(w))`` over the weighted factors, + identical for every asset. The old mask-aware denominator dropped a + missing factor from both numerator and denominator, so an asset missing a + heavily-weighted factor was renormalised onto the light factors and could + outrank a complete asset. Coverage must not change the scale. + """ + total_abs = 0.0 + numerator = None for name, df in factors.items(): w = weights.get(name, 0.0) if abs(w) < 1e-10: continue - if result is None: - result = df * w + total_abs += abs(w) + contribution = (df * w).fillna(0.0) + if numerator is None: + numerator = contribution else: - result = result + df * w + numerator = numerator.add(contribution, fill_value=0.0) - if result is None: + if numerator is None or total_abs < 1e-10: raise ValueError("No valid factors to combine") - return result + return numerator / total_abs def combine_vote( diff --git a/alpha/ml_signal.py b/alpha/ml_signal.py index 37d2713..403c24f 100644 --- a/alpha/ml_signal.py +++ b/alpha/ml_signal.py @@ -48,6 +48,27 @@ HAS_SHAP = False +# Documented minimums for an honest walk-forward model. Below either bound the +# generator raises InsufficientTrainingData instead of returning a zero-IC +# performance record (old `train()`) or an all-NaN signal (old `generate()`): +# both used to look like a successful run with no edge. +MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES = 60 # flattened (date, asset) observations with a label +MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES = 2 # feature columns with >= 1 finite value in the window +MIN_TRAIN_DATES = 30 # labeled dates in the first walk-forward training fold + + +class InsufficientTrainingData(RuntimeError): # noqa: N818 -- public API name + """Raised when the sample cannot support a real walk-forward model. + + The message always reports the available sample count, the usable feature + count and the minimums enforced by this module (``MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES``, + ``MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES``, ``MIN_TRAIN_DATES``). Callers (CLI, API) should + surface this as an explicit failure and exit/return non-zero: the + generator does not fabricate a zero-IC performance record or an all-NaN + signal in its place. + """ + + @dataclass class MLSignalConfig: """Configuration for ML signal generation.""" @@ -154,20 +175,32 @@ def _folds(self, n_units: int): Split out from `split()` so the same arithmetic can be applied to a date axis or to a row axis. + + Test windows are non-overlapping. The step used to be + `(available - test_size) // (n_splits-1)` with no floor at + `test_size`, so with the default settings on a 600-day panel each + test window shared 58 of its 63 days with the next one and the + fold-level mean/std were computed on overlapping samples. `embargo` + also had no effect in expanding mode because nothing referenced it in + the step. When the data cannot support `n_splits` windows, fewer + folds are produced (the last may be shorter than `test_size`). """ min_size = self.train_size + self.gap + self.test_size if n_units < min_size: raise ValueError(f"Need at least {min_size} units, got {n_units}") - # Step size accounts for test_size + embargo (next fold's train starts after embargo) available = n_units - self.train_size - self.gap - step = max(1, (available - self.test_size) // max(self.n_splits - 1, 1)) + step = self.test_size + max(0, self.embargo) + # Full non-overlapping windows; if even one does not fit, keep a + # single shorter test window rather than refusing to validate. + max_folds = available // step if available >= step else 1 + n_folds = min(self.n_splits, max_folds) - for i in range(self.n_splits): + for i in range(n_folds): if self.mode == "expanding": train_start = 0 - else: # rolling - train_start = max(0, i * step - self.embargo * i) + else: # rolling: fixed-length training window + train_start = i * step train_end = self.train_size + i * step test_start = train_end + self.gap # purge gap @@ -283,6 +316,8 @@ def __init__(self, config: MLSignalConfig | None = None): self.performance_history: list[ModelPerformance] = [] self.feature_importance: dict[str, float] = {} self._last_train_date = None + self._train_end_date = None + self._feature_names: list[str] | None = None def _create_model(self): """Create the underlying ML model.""" @@ -295,7 +330,12 @@ def _create_model(self): raise ImportError("lightgbm not installed: pip install lightgbm") return lgb.LGBMRegressor(**self.config.lgb_params) elif self.config.model_type == "ensemble": - return None # Will create both + # There is no ensemble implementation: the factory returned None + # and training then failed with AttributeError. + raise ValueError( + "model_type='ensemble' is not implemented; use 'xgboost' or " + "'lightgbm'" + ) else: raise ValueError(f"Unknown model type: {self.config.model_type}") @@ -332,23 +372,69 @@ def _prepare_dataset( forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, start_idx: int, end_idx: int, - ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, list[str]]: + ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, list[str], pd.Index]: """Prepare training dataset from factor cross-sections. Flattens all dates and assets into a single feature matrix. Each row = (date, asset) pair. + Feature columns with no finite observation anywhere in + ``[start_idx, end_idx)`` are dropped (and logged): keeping them would + make the per-row ``valid_mask`` below reject every row, which is how a + short history used to end up with zero samples and a fake zero-IC + result. Fewer than ``MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES`` surviving columns is an + explicit ``InsufficientTrainingData`` failure, never a silent + "no data" result. + Returns: (X, y, feature_names, row_dates) -- `row_dates` carries the date of each row, so a splitter can divide on the date axis instead of counting rows. Row counts per date vary (NaN assets are dropped), so this cannot be reconstructed by the caller. """ - feature_names = sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] - first_factor = factors[feature_names[0]] + candidate_names = sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] + if not candidate_names: + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data: 0 samples and 0 usable features " + f"available; at least {MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and " + f"{MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} features are required." + ) + first_factor = factors[candidate_names[0]] dates = first_factor.index[start_idx:end_idx] assets = first_factor.columns + # Drop columns with no finite observation in this window. A single + # all-NaN column used to poison the AND-ed valid_mask below and leave + # zero training rows while the caller reported zeros instead of an + # error. + feature_names: list[str] = [] + dropped: list[str] = [] + for name in candidate_names: + window = factors[name].iloc[start_idx:end_idx] + if np.isfinite(window.to_numpy(dtype=float)).any(): + feature_names.append(name) + else: + dropped.append(name) + logger.warning( + "Dropping feature '%s': no finite observations in the " + "training window (%d dates); keeping it would invalidate " + "every training row.", + name, len(window), + ) + + if len(feature_names) < MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES: + n_labeled_rows = 0 + for date in dates: + if date in forward_returns.index: + fwd = forward_returns.loc[date].to_numpy(dtype=float) + n_labeled_rows += int(np.isfinite(fwd).sum()) + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data: {n_labeled_rows} labeled samples " + f"and {len(feature_names)} usable feature(s) after dropping " + f"{dropped}; at least {MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and " + f"{MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} features are required." + ) + X_list = [] y_list = [] dates_list = [] @@ -390,6 +476,24 @@ def _prepare_dataset( pd.Index(dates_list), ) + @staticmethod + def _require_min_training_data( + n_samples: int, n_features: int, context: str + ) -> None: + """Raise InsufficientTrainingData below the documented minimums. + + The message always carries the available sample count, the usable + feature count and the required minimums, so an operator can tell + whether the history is too short, the factors too sparse, or both. + """ + if n_samples < MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES or n_features < MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES: + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data for {context}: {n_samples} samples " + f"and {n_features} features available; at least " + f"{MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and {MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} features " + f"are required." + ) + def train( self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], @@ -397,13 +501,40 @@ def train( ) -> ModelPerformance: """Train the ML model with time-series cross-validation. + The first walk-forward fold is adaptive. With a long history + (enough labeled dates that the full ``train_window`` still leaves a + 63-date test window) it trains on exactly ``train_window`` dates, + unchanged from before. With a shorter history it shrinks the first + training window just enough to keep at least one out-of-sample fold, + down to ``MIN_TRAIN_DATES``. A sample that cannot support that raises + ``InsufficientTrainingData`` -- it never returns a zero-IC + ``ModelPerformance`` for a model that was not fitted. + Args: factors: dict of factor_name -> (date x asset) processed factor values forward_returns: (date x asset) forward returns Returns: ModelPerformance with CV results + + Raises: + InsufficientTrainingData: when fewer than ``MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES`` + usable rows or ``MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES`` usable features exist, + or the labeled date axis cannot hold ``MIN_TRAIN_DATES`` + training dates plus the purge gap plus one test date. """ + # Clear any previously fitted state first: a failed training run must + # not leave a model (or metadata) behind that `save_model` could + # persist. + self.model = None + self._feature_names = None + self._train_end_date = None + self._last_train_date = None + self.feature_importance = {} + + if not factors: + self._require_min_training_data(0, 0, context="train()") + first_factor = list(factors.values())[0] n_dates = len(first_factor.index) @@ -411,21 +542,50 @@ def train( X_full, y_full, feature_names, row_dates = self._prepare_dataset( factors, forward_returns, 0, n_dates ) + self._require_min_training_data( + len(X_full), len(feature_names), context="train()" + ) - if len(X_full) < 100: - logger.warning("Not enough data for ML training: %d samples", len(X_full)) - return ModelPerformance(date=str(first_factor.index[-1]), model_type=self.config.model_type) + # The splitter divides the *labeled* date axis, so fold bounds must be + # expressed in labeled dates (the last date often has no observable + # forward return and is absent from `row_dates`). + n_obs_dates = int(len(pd.Index(pd.unique(row_dates)))) + gap = self.config.purge_gap + test_window = 63 # the walk-forward test window this CV always used + max_train_end = n_obs_dates - gap - 1 + if max_train_end < MIN_TRAIN_DATES: + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data for walk-forward CV: " + f"{n_obs_dates} labeled dates, {len(X_full)} samples and " + f"{len(feature_names)} features available; at least " + f"{MIN_TRAIN_DATES} training dates + {gap}-date purge gap + " + f"1 test date ({MIN_TRAIN_DATES + gap + 1} labeled dates), " + f"{MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and {MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} features " + f"are required." + ) + + # Adaptive first fold. min() keeps three invariants: never train on + # more than `train_window` (long histories unchanged at 504), + # never train on fewer than MIN_TRAIN_DATES, and always leave at + # least one labeled test date after the purge gap. + first_train_end = min( + self.config.train_window, + max(MIN_TRAIN_DATES, n_obs_dates - test_window), + max_train_end, + ) + test_size = min(test_window, n_obs_dates - gap - first_train_end) # Time-series CV with purge gap cv = TimeSeriesCV( n_splits=self.config.n_splits, - train_size=self.config.train_window, - test_size=63, - gap=self.config.purge_gap, + train_size=first_train_end, + test_size=test_size, + gap=gap, embargo=self.config.embargo, ) cv_results = [] + fold_test_ic_series: list[pd.Series] = [] # Split on dates, not rows: X_full has one row per (date, asset), so a # row-based split would put the same trading day in both train and test. for fold, (train_idx, test_idx) in enumerate(cv.split_by_dates(row_dates)): @@ -440,8 +600,19 @@ def train( train_pred = model.predict(X_train) test_pred = model.predict(X_test) - train_ic = float(np.corrcoef(y_train, train_pred)[0, 1]) if len(y_train) > 10 else 0 - test_ic = float(np.corrcoef(y_test, test_pred)[0, 1]) if len(y_test) > 10 else 0 + # Cross-sectional (rank) IC per date. `np.corrcoef` on the + # flattened panel mixed time-series and cross-sectional variation: + # predictions that carried only market timing scored 0.7 pooled + # correlation with zero stock-selection skill. + train_ics = self._cross_sectional_ic( + row_dates[train_idx], y_train, train_pred, + ) + test_ics = self._cross_sectional_ic( + row_dates[test_idx], y_test, test_pred, + ) + train_ic = float(train_ics.mean()) if len(train_ics) else 0.0 + test_ic = float(test_ics.mean()) if len(test_ics) else 0.0 + fold_test_ic_series.append(test_ics) cv_results.append({ "fold": fold, @@ -454,25 +625,50 @@ def train( logger.info(" Fold %d: train_IC=%.4f, test_IC=%.4f (n_train=%d, n_test=%d)", fold, train_ic, test_ic, len(train_idx), len(test_idx)) - # Train final model on all data - self.model = self._create_model() + if not cv_results: + # The adaptive split above should always yield a fold; if a + # degenerate date axis slips through, fail explicitly instead of + # averaging over an empty list. + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data for walk-forward CV: no fold " + f"produced from {n_obs_dates} labeled dates, {len(X_full)} " + f"samples and {len(feature_names)} features " + f"(first fold: train_size={first_train_end}, gap={gap}, " + f"test_size={test_size}); at least {MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples " + f"and {MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} features are required." + ) + + # Train final model on all data. Fit into a local first so a failed + # fit never leaves an unfitted estimator on `self.model` that + # `save_model` could try to persist. + final_model = self._create_model() with warnings.catch_warnings(): warnings.simplefilter("ignore") - self.model.fit(X_full, y_full) + final_model.fit(X_full, y_full) + self.model = final_model # Remember which dates the fitted model has seen, so that `predict` # does not hand back in-sample predictions as if they were signals. self._train_end_date = max(row_dates) if len(row_dates) else None + self._feature_names = list(feature_names) # Feature importance if hasattr(self.model, 'feature_importances_'): importances = self.model.feature_importances_ self.feature_importance = dict(zip(feature_names, importances.tolist(), strict=False)) - # Aggregate CV metrics - test_ics = [r["test_ic"] for r in cv_results] - mean_test_ic = float(np.mean(test_ics)) - std_test_ic = float(np.std(test_ics)) if len(test_ics) > 1 else 0 + # Aggregate CV metrics over the unique test dates, not over the 2-5 + # fold means: the latter was the dispersion of a handful of numbers, + # not an ICIR. + if fold_test_ic_series: + all_test_ics = pd.concat(fold_test_ic_series) + all_test_ics = all_test_ics[~all_test_ics.index.duplicated()] + else: + all_test_ics = pd.Series(dtype=float) + mean_test_ic = float(all_test_ics.mean()) if len(all_test_ics) else 0.0 + std_test_ic = ( + float(all_test_ics.std(ddof=1)) if len(all_test_ics) > 1 else 0.0 + ) test_icir = mean_test_ic / std_test_ic if std_test_ic > 0 else 0 perf = ModelPerformance( @@ -487,11 +683,40 @@ def train( self.performance_history.append(perf) self._last_train_date = first_factor.index[-1] - logger.info("ML model trained: type=%s, test_IC=%.4f, test_ICIR=%.4f, features=%d", - self.config.model_type, mean_test_ic, test_icir, len(feature_names)) + logger.info( + "ML model trained: type=%s, test_IC=%.4f, test_ICIR=%.4f, " + "features=%d, first_fold_train_dates=%d", + self.config.model_type, mean_test_ic, test_icir, + len(feature_names), first_train_end, + ) return perf + @staticmethod + def _cross_sectional_ic(dates, y_true, y_pred) -> pd.Series: + """Rank IC per date from flattened (date, asset) rows. + + Dates with fewer than five assets, or with constant predictions or + labels, are skipped: Spearman is undefined there. + """ + frame = pd.DataFrame({ + "date": np.asarray(dates), + "y": np.asarray(y_true, dtype=float), + "p": np.asarray(y_pred, dtype=float), + }) + ics: dict[object, float] = {} + for date, group in frame.groupby("date", sort=True): + if ( + len(group) < 5 + or group["y"].nunique() < 2 + or group["p"].nunique() < 2 + ): + continue + ic = group["y"].corr(group["p"], method="spearman") + if pd.notna(ic): + ics[date] = float(ic) + return pd.Series(ics, dtype=float) + def predict(self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame]) -> pd.DataFrame: """Generate ML signals for dates the fitted model has not seen. @@ -518,7 +743,15 @@ def predict(self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame]) -> pd.DataFrame: first_factor = list(factors.values())[0] dates = first_factor.index assets = first_factor.columns - feature_names = sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] + feature_names = ( + list(self._feature_names) + if self._feature_names else sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] + ) + missing = [name for name in feature_names if name not in factors] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + f"Model was trained on factors missing from the input: {missing}" + ) signal_data = np.full((len(dates), len(assets)), np.nan) @@ -583,12 +816,40 @@ def get_shap_values(self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], n_samples: int = 500 if self.model is None: return {"error": "model not trained"} - first_factor = list(factors.values())[0] - n_dates = len(first_factor.index) - X, _, feature_names, _ = self._prepare_dataset(factors, pd.DataFrame(), 0, n_dates) + feature_names = ( + list(self._feature_names) + if self._feature_names + else sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] + ) + missing = [name for name in feature_names if name not in factors] + if missing: + return {"error": f"missing factors: {missing}"} + + first_factor = factors[feature_names[0]] + dates = first_factor.index + assets = first_factor.columns + + # Feature-only matrix. `_prepare_dataset` needs forward returns and + # was called with an empty frame, so it always returned no rows and + # this function always answered {"error": "no data"}. + rows = [] + for date in dates: + features = [] + valid_mask = np.ones(len(assets), dtype=bool) + for name in feature_names: + df = factors[name] + row = ( + df.loc[date].values + if date in df.index else np.full(len(assets), np.nan) + ) + features.append(row) + valid_mask = valid_mask & ~np.isnan(row) + if valid_mask.any(): + rows.append(np.column_stack(features)[valid_mask]) - if len(X) == 0: + if not rows: return {"error": "no data"} + X = np.vstack(rows) # Subsample for efficiency if len(X) > n_samples: @@ -620,42 +881,92 @@ def generate( 3. Retrain every retrain_frequency dates This is the ONLY correct way to use ML in backtesting. + + The first training fold is adaptive. Long histories keep the old + behaviour (start at ``train_window``); short histories keep + ``MIN_TRAIN_DATES`` training dates and hold out the rest, so a + 260-day sample produces real out-of-sample signals instead of an + all-NaN frame. + + Raises: + InsufficientTrainingData: when no walk-forward fold can be + trained. The old code returned an all-NaN signal in that case, + which a caller could not distinguish from "the model has + nothing out-of-sample to say". """ + if not factors: + self._require_min_training_data(0, 0, context="generate()") + first_factor = list(factors.values())[0] dates = first_factor.index assets = first_factor.columns - feature_names = sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] n_dates = len(dates) + # Adaptive first fold: `min(train_window, max(MIN_TRAIN_DATES, + # n_dates - test_window))`, clamped so at least one date remains to + # predict. For long histories this is exactly `train_window`. + test_window = 63 + if n_dates < MIN_TRAIN_DATES + 1: + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data for generate(): {n_dates} dates " + f"available; at least {MIN_TRAIN_DATES} training dates + 1 " + f"out-of-sample date ({MIN_TRAIN_DATES + 1} dates) are required, " + f"plus {MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and {MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} " + f"features." + ) + first_train_end = min( + self.config.train_window, + max(MIN_TRAIN_DATES, n_dates - test_window), + n_dates - 1, + ) + signal_data = np.full((n_dates, len(assets)), np.nan) model = None + feature_names = sorted(factors.keys())[:self.config.top_n_features] last_train_idx = -self.config.retrain_frequency # force first train perf_log = [] - for i in range(max(self.config.train_window, 60), n_dates): + for i in range(first_train_end, n_dates): # Check if we need to retrain - if i - last_train_idx >= self.config.retrain_frequency or model is None: + if model is None or i - last_train_idx >= self.config.retrain_frequency: # Prepare training data: all dates before i train_start = max(0, i - self.config.train_window) - X_train, y_train, feat_names, _ = self._prepare_dataset( + X_train, y_train, fold_features, _ = self._prepare_dataset( factors, forward_returns, train_start, i ) - if len(X_train) < 100: - continue - - model = self._create_model() - with warnings.catch_warnings(): - warnings.simplefilter("ignore") - model.fit(X_train, y_train) + try: + self._require_min_training_data( + len(X_train), len(fold_features), + context=f"generate() retrain at {str(dates[i])[:10]}", + ) + except InsufficientTrainingData: + if model is None: + # No model at all: an all-NaN frame would be a silent + # failure. Propagate. + raise + # A later retrain window is too thin; keep the existing + # model rather than replacing it with noise, and say so. + logger.warning( + "generate(): keeping the model trained at %s; retrain " + "at %s has only %d samples (%d required).", + str(dates[last_train_idx])[:10] if last_train_idx >= 0 else "n/a", + str(dates[i])[:10], len(X_train), MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES, + ) + else: + model = self._create_model() + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + model.fit(X_train, y_train) - last_train_idx = i + feature_names = fold_features + last_train_idx = i - # Quick in-sample IC check - train_pred = model.predict(X_train) - train_ic = float(np.corrcoef(y_train, train_pred)[0, 1]) if len(y_train) > 10 else 0 - perf_log.append({'idx': i, 'date': str(dates[i])[:10], 'train_ic': train_ic, - 'n_train': len(X_train)}) + # Quick in-sample IC check + train_pred = model.predict(X_train) + train_ic = float(np.corrcoef(y_train, train_pred)[0, 1]) if len(y_train) > 10 else 0 + perf_log.append({'idx': i, 'date': str(dates[i])[:10], 'train_ic': train_ic, + 'n_train': len(X_train)}) if model is None: continue @@ -681,6 +992,18 @@ def generate( pred = model.predict(X_valid) signal_data[i][valid_mask] = pred + if model is None: + # Unreachable while `first_train_end < n_dates`: the first loop + # iteration either fits a model or raises. Kept as the documented + # no-model contract: never return an all-NaN frame that looks like + # a signal. + raise InsufficientTrainingData( + f"Insufficient training data for generate(): no walk-forward " + f"fold produced a model from {n_dates} dates " + f"({MIN_TRAIN_SAMPLES} samples and {MIN_TRAIN_FEATURES} " + f"features required)." + ) + signal = pd.DataFrame(signal_data, index=dates, columns=assets) # Cross-sectional rank normalization signal = signal.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="keep") - 0.5 @@ -694,45 +1017,125 @@ def generate( return signal def save_model(self, path: str): - """Save model to disk.""" + """Save model and its metadata sidecar to disk. + + The LightGBM sklearn wrapper has no `save_model`; the fitted booster + does. The old code wrote only the JSON sidecar for LightGBM, so + `load_model` either raised FileNotFoundError or installed an unfitted + estimator. The sidecar also carries the feature list and the last + training date, without which a loaded model silently loses the + in-sample guard in `predict`. + """ if self.model is None: - return + raise RuntimeError("Model not trained. Call train() first.") model_path = Path(path) model_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) - if hasattr(self.model, 'save_model'): - self.model.save_model(str(model_path)) + if self.config.model_type == "lightgbm": + if not HAS_LGB: + raise ImportError("lightgbm not installed") + booster = getattr(self.model, "booster_", None) + if booster is None: + raise RuntimeError("LightGBM model has no fitted booster_") + # LightGBM's C++ writer cannot open non-ASCII paths on Windows + # ("Model file ... is not available for writes"). Serialize in + # memory and let Python write the bytes -- write_text would + # translate \n to \r\n and corrupt the text model format. The + # text format loads via model_str; legacy binary artifacts still + # load through model_file in load_model(). + model_path.write_bytes(booster.model_to_string().encode("utf-8")) + elif self.config.model_type == "xgboost": + if not HAS_XGB: + raise ImportError("xgboost not installed") + # Same non-ASCII path constraint: serialize to bytes and write + # them from Python instead of letting the C API open the path. + raw = self.model.get_booster().save_raw() + model_path.write_bytes(bytes(raw)) + else: + raise ValueError( + f"Cannot save model_type={self.config.model_type!r}" + ) - # Save metadata meta = { "model_type": self.config.model_type, + "feature_names": list(self._feature_names or []), + "top_n_features": self.config.top_n_features, "feature_importance": self.feature_importance, + "train_end_date": ( + str(self._train_end_date) if self._train_end_date else None + ), "last_train_date": str(self._last_train_date) if self._last_train_date else None, "performance_history": [ { "date": p.date, + "model_type": p.model_type, + "train_ic": p.train_ic, "test_ic": p.test_ic, + "train_icir": p.train_icir, "test_icir": p.test_icir, + "n_train_samples": p.n_train_samples, + "n_test_samples": p.n_test_samples, } for p in self.performance_history ], } - meta_path = model_path.with_suffix(".json") + meta_path = Path(str(model_path) + ".meta.json") meta_path.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)) def load_model(self, path: str): - """Load model from disk.""" + """Load a model and its metadata sidecar from disk.""" model_path = Path(path) if not model_path.exists(): raise FileNotFoundError(f"Model not found: {path}") - model = self._create_model() - if hasattr(model, 'load_model'): - model.load_model(str(model_path)) - self.model = model + meta_path = Path(str(model_path) + ".meta.json") + if not meta_path.exists(): + raise FileNotFoundError( + f"Model metadata not found: {meta_path}. Re-save the model with " + "save_model()." + ) + meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) - meta_path = model_path.with_suffix(".json") - if meta_path.exists(): - meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) - self.feature_importance = meta.get("feature_importance", {}) - self._last_train_date = meta.get("last_train_date") + model_type = meta.get("model_type", self.config.model_type) + if model_type == "lightgbm": + if not HAS_LGB: + raise ImportError("lightgbm not installed") + # A raw Booster predicts on the same feature matrix as the + # sklearn wrapper. Load from the in-memory text so a non-ASCII + # path never reaches LightGBM's C++ file opener; binary/legacy + # artifacts fall back to the file path. + payload = model_path.read_bytes() + try: + self.model = lgb.Booster(model_str=payload.decode("utf-8")) + except UnicodeDecodeError: + self.model = lgb.Booster(model_file=str(model_path)) + elif model_type == "xgboost": + if not HAS_XGB: + raise ImportError("xgboost not installed") + model = xgb.XGBRegressor(**self.config.xgb_params) + raw = model_path.read_bytes() + try: + model.load_model(bytearray(raw)) + except Exception: + # Older xgboost versions only accept a path (ASCII-safe + # callers); keep the legacy fallback. + model.load_model(str(model_path)) + self.model = model + else: + raise ValueError(f"Cannot load model_type={model_type!r}") + + # The artifact's own type and feature list win over the current + # config: a model trained as xgboost must not be predicted through a + # lightgbm configuration. + self.config.model_type = model_type + names = meta.get("feature_names") + self._feature_names = list(names) if names else None + + train_end = meta.get("train_end_date") + self._train_end_date = pd.Timestamp(train_end) if train_end else None + last_train = meta.get("last_train_date") + self._last_train_date = pd.Timestamp(last_train) if last_train else None + self.feature_importance = meta.get("feature_importance", {}) + self.performance_history = [ + ModelPerformance(**p) for p in meta.get("performance_history", []) + ] diff --git a/alpha/pipeline.py b/alpha/pipeline.py index d934d62..c75455b 100644 --- a/alpha/pipeline.py +++ b/alpha/pipeline.py @@ -84,7 +84,16 @@ def run( else: raise ValueError(f"Unknown combination method: {self.method}") - # Cross-sectional rank normalization + # Cross-sectional rank normalization. + # + # Round first: the combined score for a given date must not depend on + # how many later rows the panel happens to contain. Summation order + # differed by ~1e-14 between a full panel and the same panel truncated + # at that date, which flipped near-tied assets and changed their + # percentile ranks -- the lookahead detector flagged its own causal + # signal as biased. 1e-12 is far below any real cross-sectional + # difference and far above the summation noise. + raw = raw.round(12) signal = raw.rank(axis=1, pct=True, na_option="keep") # Center to [-0.5, 0.5] range signal = signal - 0.5 diff --git a/api/monitor.py b/api/monitor.py index a990957..ae98229 100644 --- a/api/monitor.py +++ b/api/monitor.py @@ -13,13 +13,18 @@ from __future__ import annotations -from datetime import datetime +import threading +import warnings +from collections import OrderedDict +from dataclasses import replace +from datetime import UTC, datetime from typing import Any import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException -from pydantic import BaseModel, Field +from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query +from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict, Field +from starlette.concurrency import run_in_threadpool from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger @@ -28,54 +33,225 @@ router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/monitor") +def _json_float(value: Any, default: Any = None) -> Any: + """Finite float or ``default`` (Starlette JSON rejects NaN/inf).""" + try: + number = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return default + return number if np.isfinite(number) else default + + +def _window_or_422( + start_date: str | None, end_date: str | None, +) -> tuple[str | None, str | None]: + from quant_platform.api.research_context import parse_window + + try: + return parse_window(start_date, end_date) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, str(exc)) from exc + + +async def _research_context_or_503( + start_date: str | None, end_date: str | None, +): + from quant_platform.api.research_context import get_research_context + + try: + return await get_research_context( + start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, + ) + except HTTPException: + raise + except Exception as exc: + logger.exception("Monitor research context build failed") + raise HTTPException( + status_code=503, + detail="Research data unavailable; see server logs", + headers={"X-Error-Code": "research_context_unavailable"}, + ) from exc + + +async def _compute_cached(context, name: str, builder): + """Run a derived monitor computation on the shared analytics pool.""" + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + + cached = routes_module._derived_get(context, name, None) + if cached is not None: + if isinstance(cached, BaseModel): + return cached.model_copy(update={"cached": True}) + return cached + return await routes_module._run_analytics( + _build_and_cache, context, name, builder, + ) + + +def _build_and_cache(context, name: str, builder): + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + from quant_platform.api.research_context import ( + _key_lock_for, + derived_cache_get, + derived_cache_put, + ) + + key = routes_module.derived_key(context, name, None) + with _key_lock_for(key): + hit = derived_cache_get(key) + if hit is not None: + if isinstance(hit, BaseModel): + return hit.model_copy(update={"cached": True}) + return hit + result = builder(context) + derived_cache_put(key, result) + return result + + # ── Pydantic models ── class RiskOverviewResponse(BaseModel): + available: bool = Field( + False, description="Whether the risk state below was actually read" + ) + reason: str = Field("", description="Why the risk overview is unavailable") factor_exposures: dict[str, float] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="Barra 10 factor exposures") + factor_exposures_available: bool = Field( + False, + description="Whether factor_exposures contains a real decomposition", + ) + factor_exposures_reason: str = Field( + "", + description="Why factor exposures are unavailable, when they are", + ) sector_concentration: dict[str, float] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="Top sector weights") current_drawdown: float = Field(0.0, description="Current drawdown %") volatility: float = Field(0.0, description="Annualized volatility") var_95: float = Field(0.0, description="95% VaR") cvar_95: float = Field(0.0, description="95% CVaR") - risk_level: str = Field("GREEN", description="Risk level") + risk_level: str = Field("UNKNOWN", description="Risk level (UNKNOWN when unread)") portfolio_value: float = Field(0.0) daily_pnl: float = Field(0.0) n_positions: int = Field(0) + kill_switch: bool = Field(False, description="Whether the kill switch is active") + persisted: bool = Field( + False, description="Whether the risk state is durable across a restart", + ) + limits: dict[str, float] = Field( + default_factory=dict, description="Live RiskMonitor limits", + ) class TCASummaryResponse(BaseModel): - n_orders: int = 0 + available: bool = Field(False, description="Whether the TCA metrics below are populated") + reason: str = Field("", description="Why TCA is unavailable, when it is") + n_orders: int = Field(0, description="Distinct stored orders represented by trades") + n_trades: int = 0 + n_analyzed: int = Field(0, description="Trades joined to a reference price") mean_is_bps: float = 0.0 - mean_delay_bps: float = 0.0 - mean_impact_bps: float = 0.0 - mean_timing_bps: float = 0.0 - mean_arrival_bps: float = 0.0 + mean_delay_bps: float | None = Field( + None, description="Unmeasured without quote data (see decomposition)", + ) + mean_impact_bps: float | None = Field( + None, description="Unmeasured without quote data (see decomposition)", + ) + mean_timing_bps: float | None = Field( + None, description="Unmeasured without quote data (see decomposition)", + ) + mean_arrival_bps: float | None = Field( + None, description="Unmeasured without an arrival quote", + ) + mean_fee_bps: float = Field( + 0.0, description="Explicit commission + tax as bps of executed notional", + ) median_is_bps: float = 0.0 daily_trend: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="Daily IS trend [{date, is_bps}]") cost_breakdown: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="[{date, delay, impact, timing}]") by_ticker: dict[str, float] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="IS by ticker") + decomposition: dict = Field( + default_factory=dict, + description="Which cost decompositions the stored fields support", + ) + skipped: dict = Field( + default_factory=dict, description="Trades excluded per reason", + ) + limits: dict = Field( + default_factory=dict, description="Row limits applied to the store reads", + ) + as_of: str = Field("", description="Latest stored trade date") + provider: str = "store" + synthetic: bool = False + config_hash: str = "" + computed_at: str = "" + cached: bool = False class FactorStatusResponse(BaseModel): + available: bool = Field(False, description="Whether rolling IC data is populated") + reason: str = Field("", description="Why factor status is unavailable, when it is") factors: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="Factor IC stats [{name, ic, icir, trend, alert}]") - rolling_ic: dict[str, list[float]] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="Rolling IC series per factor") + rolling_ic: dict[str, list[float | None]] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="Rolling IC series per factor") ic_dates: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list, description="Dates for rolling IC") attribution: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="[{factor, contribution_bps}]") + attribution_reason: str = Field( + "", + description="Why contribution attribution is not in this response", + ) decay_alerts: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="Factors with IC decay") disabled_factors: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list, description="Auto-decay disabled factors") + required_sessions: int = Field( + 0, description="Sessions needed for a rolling IC observation", + ) + window_sessions: int = Field( + 0, description="Trailing sessions the rolling statistics cover", + ) + panel_start: str = Field("", description="First date of the analysis window") + decay_replay: str = Field( + "", + description="Which auto-decay thresholds the disabled-factor replay used", + ) + as_of: str = "" + provider: str = "" + synthetic: bool = False + config_hash: str = "" + computed_at: str = "" + cached: bool = False class CapacityGaugeResponse(BaseModel): + available: bool = Field(False, description="Whether the capacity curve is populated") + reason: str = Field("", description="Why capacity is unavailable, when it is") current_aum: float = 0.0 capacity_aum: float = 0.0 usage_pct: float = 0.0 participation_rate: float = 0.0 sharpe_at_capacity: float = 0.0 aum_curve: list[dict] = Field(default_factory=list, description="[{aum, sharpe, return}]") + weights_source: str = Field( + "", description="request / oms_positions / equal_weight", + ) + aum_source: str = Field("", description="pnl_history / positions / none") + usage_available: bool = Field( + True, description="False when no live book supplies the current AUM", + ) + participation_assumption: dict = Field( + default_factory=dict, + description="ADV window and max participation used by the gauge", + ) + curve_reason: str = Field( + "", description="Why the AUM-Sharpe curve is empty, when it is", + ) + as_of: str = "" + provider: str = "" + synthetic: bool = False + config_hash: str = "" + computed_at: str = "" + cached: bool = False class ConfigUpdateRequest(BaseModel): + model_config = ConfigDict(allow_inf_nan=False) + max_position_pct: float | None = Field(None, ge=0.01, le=0.20, description="Max single position weight (0.01-0.20)") max_sector_pct: float | None = Field(None, ge=0.05, le=0.50, description="Max sector weight (0.05-0.50)") max_drawdown_pct: float | None = Field(None, ge=0.01, le=0.30, description="Drawdown halt threshold (0.01-0.30)") @@ -95,6 +271,12 @@ class KillSwitchRequest(BaseModel): class KillSwitchResponse(BaseModel): active: bool message: str + persisted: bool = Field( + False, description="Whether the new state was written to durable storage", + ) + persist_error: bool = Field( + False, description="True when the durable write failed; state is memory-only", + ) # ── Singleton references (lazy, shared with routes.py) ── @@ -104,38 +286,86 @@ class KillSwitchResponse(BaseModel): _core_risk = None _run_results_cache: dict[str, Any] = {} +# The getters run from the event loop *and* from `run_in_threadpool` workers. +# `if x is None: x = ...` without a lock could construct two Stores (each +# running DDL) or two risk monitors, leaking the first. Construction errors +# used to be swallowed with `except Exception: pass`, which turned every +# monitor panel into an unexplained empty payload. +_singleton_lock = threading.Lock() + def _get_store(): global _core_store - if _core_store is None: - try: - from quant_platform.core.store import Store - _core_store = Store() - except Exception: - pass - return _core_store + instance = _core_store + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _core_store is None: + # Share the API's store instead of opening a second handle on + # the same SQLite file: two Store objects for one DB made the + # risk monitor see a "different target" on every dashboard + # poll (S21 regression). + try: + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + _core_store = getattr(routes_module, "_core_store", None) + except Exception: + _core_store = None + if _core_store is None: + try: + from quant_platform.core.store import Store + _core_store = Store() + except Exception: + logger.exception("Monitor store construction failed") + return None + instance = _core_store + return instance def _get_risk(): global _core_risk - if _core_risk is None: + instance = _core_risk + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _core_risk is None: + try: + from quant_platform.risk.circuit_breaker import get_risk_monitor + _core_risk = get_risk_monitor() + except Exception: + logger.exception("Monitor risk-monitor lookup failed") + return None + instance = _core_risk + # S21: attach the dashboard's monitor to the Store once. Re-attaching on + # every poll with a different Store object used to reset the in-memory + # risk state (including an armed kill switch). The tenant reset rule in + # RiskMonitor now only fires on a genuine tenant change; this guard keeps + # the monitor bound to its first store. + store = _get_store() + attach = getattr(instance, "attach_persistence", None) + if ( + store is not None + and callable(attach) + and getattr(instance, "_store", None) is None + ): try: - from quant_platform.risk.circuit_breaker import get_risk_monitor - _core_risk = get_risk_monitor() + attach(store, tenant_id="default", restore=False) except Exception: - pass - return _core_risk + logger.exception("Monitor risk-state persistence setup failed") + return instance def _get_bus(): global _core_bus - if _core_bus is None: - try: - from quant_platform.core.events import get_event_bus - _core_bus = get_event_bus() - except Exception: - pass - return _core_bus + instance = _core_bus + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _core_bus is None: + try: + from quant_platform.core.events import get_event_bus + _core_bus = get_event_bus() + except Exception: + logger.exception("Monitor event-bus lookup failed") + return None + instance = _core_bus + return instance # ── Risk Overview ── @@ -144,20 +374,47 @@ def _get_bus(): @router.get("/risk-overview", response_model=RiskOverviewResponse) async def get_risk_overview(): """Aggregate risk data: factor exposures, concentration, drawdown, VaR.""" - result = RiskOverviewResponse() - - # Get risk status from RiskMonitor + # SQLite reads, pandas and the VaR computation are all blocking; run the + # whole aggregate in a worker thread so one dashboard poll cannot freeze + # every HTTP/WebSocket handler on the event loop. + return await run_in_threadpool(_compute_risk_overview) + + +def _compute_risk_overview() -> RiskOverviewResponse: + result = RiskOverviewResponse(available=False, risk_level="UNKNOWN") + result.factor_exposures_reason = ( + "no Barra decomposition is cached for the live book; " + "POST /api/barra/decompose with portfolio weights to compute one" + ) + + # Get risk status from RiskMonitor. A failure here must not look like a + # healthy zero-risk portfolio: the old code returned 200 with + # risk_level="GREEN", portfolio_value=0 and vol=0 on any error. risk = _get_risk() - if risk: + if risk is None: + result.reason = ( + "risk monitor is not available; the trading engine has not " + "started or its state could not be read" + ) + else: try: status = risk.get_status() - result.risk_level = status.get("risk_level", "GREEN") + result.risk_level = status.get("risk_level", "UNKNOWN") result.portfolio_value = status.get("portfolio_value", 0) result.daily_pnl = status.get("daily_pnl", 0) result.current_drawdown = abs(status.get("current_drawdown", 0)) result.n_positions = status.get("n_positions", 0) + result.kill_switch = bool(status.get("kill_switch", False)) + result.persisted = bool(status.get("persisted", False)) + result.limits = { + str(k): float(v) + for k, v in (status.get("limits") or {}).items() + } + result.available = True except Exception: - pass + # Short reason only; the traceback stays in the server log. + logger.exception("Risk overview: risk status read failed") + result.reason = "risk status unavailable" # Get positions from store for concentration analysis store = _get_store() @@ -189,8 +446,12 @@ async def get_risk_overview(): result.var_95 = round(vs.get("historical_var", 0), 6) result.cvar_95 = round(vs.get("historical_cvar", 0), 6) result.volatility = round(float(returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)), 6) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Risk overview partial: %s", e) + except Exception: + logger.exception("Risk overview: positions/VaR computation failed") + if result.available: + result.reason = "positions/VaR unavailable" + else: + result.reason = result.reason or "risk data unavailable" return result @@ -200,31 +461,151 @@ async def get_risk_overview(): @router.get("/tca-summary", response_model=TCASummaryResponse) async def get_tca_summary(): - """Aggregate TCA data from recent trades.""" - result = TCASummaryResponse() + """Aggregate TCA data from stored trades.""" + return await run_in_threadpool(_compute_tca_summary) + + +def _compute_tca_summary() -> TCASummaryResponse: + """Implementation shortfall from stored trades and their orders. + + ``trades`` carries execution price/quantity/side and ``orders`` carries + the order's reference (limit/decision) price. IS is measured against + that reference: ``side_sign * (exec - reference) / reference * 1e4``. + Delay/impact/timing separation needs arrival, VWAP and close quotes, + which the store does not keep; the response says so in + ``decomposition`` instead of splitting a number that was never measured. + """ + result = TCASummaryResponse( + computed_at=datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(), + provider="store", + ) + result.reason = "no stored trades" store = _get_store() if not store: + result.reason = "no store is available to read trades from" return result try: trades = store.get_trades(limit=500) - if not trades: - return result + except Exception: + logger.exception("TCA summary: trade read failed") + result.reason = "stored trades could not be read" + return result + if not trades: + return result - # Group trades by date - daily: dict[str, list[dict]] = {} - for t in trades: - ts = t.get("executed_at", "") - date = ts[:10] if ts else "" - if date: - daily.setdefault(date, []).append(t) + result.n_trades = len(trades) + result.n_orders = len({ + str(t.get("order_id", "")) for t in trades if t.get("order_id") + }) + result.limits = {"trades": 500, "orders": 1000} + try: + orders = store.get_orders(limit=1000) + except Exception: + logger.exception("TCA summary: order read failed") + orders = [] + orders_by_id = {o.get("order_id"): o for o in orders} + + skipped = {"missing_order": 0, "no_reference_price": 0, "invalid_trade": 0} + rows: list[dict] = [] + for trade in trades: + side = str(trade.get("side", "")).lower() + if side not in ("buy", "sell"): + skipped["invalid_trade"] += 1 + continue + quantity = _json_float(trade.get("quantity"), 0.0) or 0.0 + price = _json_float(trade.get("price"), 0.0) or 0.0 + if quantity <= 0 or price <= 0: + skipped["invalid_trade"] += 1 + continue + + order = orders_by_id.get(trade.get("order_id")) + if order is None: + skipped["missing_order"] += 1 + continue + reference = _json_float(order.get("price"), 0.0) or 0.0 + if reference <= 0: + skipped["no_reference_price"] += 1 + continue + + sign = 1.0 if side == "buy" else -1.0 + is_bps = sign * (price - reference) / reference * 1e4 + fee_bps = ( + (_json_float(trade.get("commission"), 0.0) or 0.0) + + (_json_float(trade.get("tax"), 0.0) or 0.0) + ) / (quantity * price) * 1e4 + executed_at = str(trade.get("executed_at", "")) + rows.append({ + "trade_id": trade.get("trade_id", ""), + "order_id": trade.get("order_id", ""), + "code": str(trade.get("code", "")), + "side": side, + "quantity": quantity, + "price": price, + "reference": reference, + "is_bps": _json_float(is_bps), + "fee_bps": _json_float(fee_bps, 0.0), + "date": executed_at[:10], + }) + + rows = [row for row in rows if row["is_bps"] is not None] + result.skipped = skipped + result.decomposition = { + "available": False, + "benchmark": "order_price", + "fields": { + "implementation_shortfall": True, + "arrival": False, + "vwap": False, + "delay_impact_timing": False, + }, + "reason": ( + "stored trades and orders carry execution price, quantity, side " + "and the order's reference price; they carry no arrival/VWAP/close " + "quote, so arrival, delay/impact/timing and VWAP costs cannot be " + "computed. Implementation shortfall is measured against the " + "order's reference price." + ), + } - result.n_orders = len(trades) + if not rows: + result.reason = ( + f"{result.n_trades} stored trades, but none joins to an order " + "with a positive reference price; implementation shortfall needs " + "a reference price" + ) + return result - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("TCA summary partial: %s", e) + is_values = np.asarray([row["is_bps"] for row in rows], dtype=float) + fees = np.asarray([row["fee_bps"] for row in rows], dtype=float) + result.available = True + result.reason = "" + result.n_analyzed = len(rows) + result.mean_is_bps = round(float(np.mean(is_values)), 6) + result.median_is_bps = round(float(np.median(is_values)), 6) + result.mean_fee_bps = round(float(np.mean(fees)), 6) + # arrival/delay/impact/timing stay null: no quote data was stored. + + by_date: dict[str, list[float]] = {} + for row in rows: + if row["date"]: + by_date.setdefault(row["date"], []).append(row["is_bps"]) + result.daily_trend = [ + {"date": day, "is_bps": round(float(np.mean(values)), 6)} + for day, values in sorted(by_date.items()) + ] + + by_ticker: dict[str, list[float]] = {} + for row in rows: + by_ticker.setdefault(row["code"], []).append(row["is_bps"]) + result.by_ticker = { + code: round(float(np.mean(values)), 6) + for code, values in sorted(by_ticker.items()) + } + dates = [row["date"] for row in rows if row["date"]] + result.as_of = max(dates) if dates else "" return result @@ -232,44 +613,138 @@ async def get_tca_summary(): @router.get("/factor-status", response_model=FactorStatusResponse) -async def get_factor_status(): - """Factor IC monitoring, attribution, and decay alerts.""" - result = FactorStatusResponse() - - # Try to get IC monitor data - try: - pass - # Check for disabled factors in the auto-decay system - # In production, this would be a shared instance - except Exception: - pass - - store = _get_store() - if not store: +async def get_factor_status( + start_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO start date override"), + end_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO end date override"), +): + """Rolling factor IC/ICIR and decay status from the research context.""" + start, end = _window_or_422(start_date, end_date) + context = await _research_context_or_503(start, end) + return await _compute_cached(context, "factor_status", _compute_factor_status) + + +def _compute_factor_status(context) -> FactorStatusResponse: + """Rolling IC/ICIR, trend and decay alerts from processed factor panels.""" + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + from quant_platform.factors.ic_monitor import ( + FactorICAutoDecay, + FactorICMonitor, + ICMonitorConfig, + ) + + result = FactorStatusResponse(**context.provenance()) + factors_in, window_sessions, panel_start = routes_module._analysis_window( + context, + ) + result.window_sessions = int(window_sessions) + result.panel_start = panel_start + config = ICMonitorConfig() + # compute_rolling_ic needs `rolling_window` raw IC observations before it + # emits its first smoothed value; compute_factor_stats then needs + # `min_observations` of those. + required = config.rolling_window + config.min_observations + 1 + result.required_sessions = int(required) + + monitor = FactorICMonitor(config=config) + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + # Sparse cross-sections legitimately produce constant-input warnings + # from the Spearman correlation; suppress them instead of emitting one + # per date per factor on every poll. + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + monitor.compute_all( + factors_in, routes_module._analysis_returns(context, factors_in), + ) + + if not monitor.factor_stats: + result.reason = ( + f"the research context has {context.n_sessions} sessions; rolling " + f"IC needs at least {required} " + f"({config.rolling_window}-day window + " + f"{config.min_observations} observations). Extend the date range." + ) return result - try: - # Get signals for factor analysis - signals = store.get_signals(limit=200) - if signals: - # Analyze factor values from signals - factor_ics: dict[str, list[float]] = {} - for sig in signals: - fv = sig.get("factor_values", {}) - if isinstance(fv, str): - import json - try: - fv = json.loads(fv) - except Exception: - fv = {} - sig.get("strength", 0) - for factor_name, value in fv.items(): - if isinstance(value, (int, float)): - factor_ics.setdefault(factor_name, []).append(float(value)) - - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Factor status partial: %s", e) - + factors: list[dict] = [] + for name in sorted(monitor.factor_stats): + stats = monitor.factor_stats[name] + factors.append({ + "name": str(name), + "current_ic": _json_float(stats.current_ic, 0.0), + "icir": _json_float(stats.rolling_icir, 0.0), + "trend": "up" if stats.ic_trend > 0 else "down", + "trend_slope": _json_float(stats.ic_trend, 0.0), + "alert": str(stats.alert_level), + "half_life_days": int(stats.half_life_days), + "positive_ratio": _json_float(stats.ic_positive_ratio, 0.0), + "last_significant_date": str(stats.last_significant_date), + }) + + series_map = { + name: monitor.ic_history[name] + for name in monitor.factor_stats + if name in monitor.ic_history + } + union_dates: list[Any] = [] + if series_map: + union = set() + for series in series_map.values(): + union.update(series.index) + union_dates = sorted(union) + tail_dates = union_dates[-60:] + + rolling_ic: dict[str, list[Any]] = {} + for name, series in series_map.items(): + values: list[Any] = [] + for day in tail_dates: + try: + values.append(_json_float(series.get(day))) + except Exception: # pragma: no cover - defensive + values.append(None) + rolling_ic[name] = values + result.rolling_ic = rolling_ic + result.ic_dates = [ + str(pd.Timestamp(day).date()) for day in tail_dates + ] + + result.decay_alerts = [ + { + "factor": str(alert.get("factor", "")), + "alert_level": str(alert.get("alert_level", "")), + "current_ic": _json_float(alert.get("current_ic"), 0.0), + "ic_decay_rate": _json_float(alert.get("ic_decay_rate"), 0.0), + "half_life_days": int(alert.get("half_life_days", 0) or 0), + "message": str(alert.get("message", "")), + } + for alert in monitor.get_alerts() + ] + + # Replay each factor's real rolling-IC series through the same auto-decay + # state machine the alpha combination uses. The replay is bounded to the + # trailing decay window (126 observations) so a dashboard poll does not + # walk the full five-year history -- the state machine only ever judges + # the recent window anyway. + decay = FactorICAutoDecay() + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + for name, series in series_map.items(): + for value in series.tail(config.decay_window).to_numpy(dtype=float): + decay.update(name, float(value)) + decay.check_and_update(name) + result.disabled_factors = sorted(decay.disabled_factors) + result.decay_replay = ( + "FactorICAutoDecay defaults (20-observation decay window, 0.01 " + "threshold, 5-observation recovery window), replayed over the " + f"trailing {config.decay_window} rolling-IC values" + ) + + result.attribution_reason = ( + "factor P&L contribution attribution needs realized strategy " + "positions; this panel reports measured IC and decay from the " + "research factor panels" + ) + result.factors = factors + result.available = True + result.reason = "" return result @@ -277,28 +752,244 @@ async def get_factor_status(): @router.get("/capacity-gauge", response_model=CapacityGaugeResponse) -async def get_capacity_gauge(): - """Strategy capacity estimation and usage.""" - result = CapacityGaugeResponse() +async def get_capacity_gauge( + start_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO start date override"), + end_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO end date override"), +): + """ADV-based strategy capacity from the research context's volume panel.""" + start, end = _window_or_422(start_date, end_date) + context = await _research_context_or_503(start, end) + # Not derived-cached: current_aum reads the live book (PnL/positions), so a + # cached gauge would report a stale AUM for the TTL. The context itself + # (the expensive part) is still cached. + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + + return await routes_module._run_analytics(_compute_capacity_gauge, context) + + +def _compute_capacity_gauge(context) -> CapacityGaugeResponse: + """Capacity from the book's weights and a derived daily-volume panel. + + The pipeline exposes turnover, not volume. ``turnover x shares`` recovers + a share-volume panel, with ``shares = market_cap / close``; that identity + is exact for providers whose market cap is price x shares and a + documented approximation otherwise. The response states the assumption. + """ + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + from quant_platform.backtest.capacity import CapacityEstimator + + result = CapacityGaugeResponse(**context.provenance()) + + prices = context.prices + if prices is None or prices.empty: + result.reason = "the research context has no price panel" + return result + # 1. Current book: stored positions win, else OMS, else equal weight. store = _get_store() - if not store: + positions: list[dict] = [] + if store is not None: + try: + positions = store.get_positions() or [] + except Exception: + logger.exception("Capacity gauge: position read failed") + positions = [] + + weights = None + weights_source = "" + if positions: + marks = { + str(p.get("code", "")): _json_float(p.get("market_value"), 0.0) or 0.0 + for p in positions + } + candidate = pd.Series(marks, dtype=float).reindex(prices.columns).fillna(0.0) + total = float(candidate.sum()) + if total > 0: + weights = candidate / total + weights_source = "oms_positions" + if weights is None: + raw_prices = None + attrs = getattr(context.metadata, "attrs", None) + if isinstance(attrs, dict): + block = attrs.get("raw_prices") + if isinstance(block, dict): + raw_prices = block.get("close") + weights, weights_source = routes_module._resolve_weights_with_source( + None, prices, raw_prices, + ) + + # 2. Current AUM (a live-book measurement; 0 when there is no live book). + current_aum = 0.0 + aum_source = "none" + if store is not None: + try: + pnl = store.get_pnl_history(days=30) or [] + if pnl: + current_aum = _json_float(pnl[-1].get("total_equity"), 0.0) or 0.0 + aum_source = "pnl_history" + elif positions: + current_aum = float(sum( + _json_float(p.get("market_value"), 0.0) or 0.0 + for p in positions + )) + aum_source = "positions" + except Exception: + logger.exception("Capacity gauge: PnL read failed") + + result.current_aum = round(current_aum, 2) + result.aum_source = aum_source + result.usage_available = aum_source != "none" + + # 3. Volume panel: turnover x shares, shares = market_cap / close. + turnover = context.turnover + market_cap = None + if context.fin_unstacked is not None and hasattr(context.fin_unstacked, "get"): + market_cap = context.fin_unstacked.get("market_cap") + if turnover is None or market_cap is None: + result.reason = ( + "no volume panel: the research context has no turnover panel or " + "no market-cap panel to derive share counts from" + ) + result.weights_source = weights_source + result.aum_source = aum_source return result - try: - positions = store.get_positions() - pnl = store.get_pnl_history(days=30) - - # Current AUM from latest P&L - if pnl: - latest = pnl[-1] - result.current_aum = latest.get("total_equity", 0) - elif positions: - result.current_aum = sum(p.get("market_value", 0) for p in positions) + turnover = turnover.reindex(index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) + market_cap = market_cap.reindex(index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns).ffill() + close = prices.replace(0.0, np.nan) + shares = market_cap / close + volumes = (turnover * shares).replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan) + if volumes.dropna(how="all").empty: + result.reason = ( + "the derived volume panel is empty (turnover or market cap is " + "missing for every asset)" + ) + result.weights_source = weights_source + result.aum_source = aum_source + return result - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Capacity gauge partial: %s", e) + # 4. ADV-based capacity. Assumption: the whole book can be built (or + # unwound) in one session at no more than `max_participation` of each + # asset's average daily volume. + max_participation = 0.10 + adv_window = 60 + adv_cny = (volumes.tail(adv_window) * prices.tail(adv_window)).mean() + weighted = weights[weights.abs() > 1e-9] + adv = adv_cny.reindex(weighted.index).astype(float) + if weighted.empty: + result.reason = "the resolved book has no non-zero weight" + result.weights_source = weights_source + result.aum_source = aum_source + return result + advances = adv.to_numpy(dtype=float) + bad_mask = ~(np.isfinite(advances) & (advances > 0)) + if bad_mask.any(): + # Dropping an untradeable name from the min would overstate capacity. + bad_names = [str(name) for name in weighted.index[bad_mask][:5]] + more = int(bad_mask.sum()) - len(bad_names) + result.reason = ( + "no positive average daily volume for weighted assets " + + ", ".join(bad_names) + + (f" (+{more} more)" if more > 0 else "") + + "; an ADV capacity estimate would overstate capacity" + ) + result.weights_source = weights_source + result.aum_source = aum_source + return result + usable = adv + + capacity_aum = float( + (usable * max_participation / weighted.reindex(usable.index).abs()).min() + ) + policy = { + "max_participation": max_participation, + "adv_window_sessions": adv_window, + "volume_source": ( + "turnover x (market_cap / adjusted close); exact when market cap " + "is price x shares, an approximation otherwise" + ), + "capacity_definition": ( + "min over weighted assets of ADV_CNY x max_participation / " + "|weight| -- the AUM at which building the book in one session " + "stays under the participation cap" + ), + "curve_assumption": ( + "the current book is entered at a single rebalance about 12 " + "months before the data end and held; the AUM-Sharpe curve " + "applies participation caps and square-root impact over the " + "remaining sessions" + ), + } + result.capacity_aum = round(capacity_aum, 2) + result.weights_source = weights_source + result.participation_assumption = policy + result.usage_pct = ( + round(current_aum / capacity_aum * 100.0, 4) if capacity_aum > 0 else 0.0 + ) + result.participation_rate = ( + round( + float( + (weighted.reindex(usable.index).abs() * current_aum) + .div(usable) + .max() + ), + 6, + ) + if current_aum > 0 else 0.0 + ) + + # 5. AUM-Sharpe curve from the real capacity simulator, at AUM levels + # around the ADV-based capacity. + try: + if len(prices.index) > 2: + point = prices.index[-min(262, len(prices.index) - 1)] + aum_range = sorted({ + max(1e5, float(round(capacity_aum * factor, -3))) + for factor in (0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0) + }) + estimator = CapacityEstimator(max_participation=max_participation) + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + curve = estimator.estimate( + weights_history={pd.Timestamp(point): weights}, + prices=prices, + volumes=volumes, + returns=context.returns, + benchmark_returns=context.benchmark, + aum_range=aum_range, + ) + result.aum_curve = [ + { + "aum": float(row.aum), + "sharpe": _json_float(row.sharpe_ratio), + "return": _json_float(row.annualized_return), + } + for row in curve.results + ] + at_capacity = [ + row for row in curve.results if row.aum <= capacity_aum + ] + chosen = ( + max(at_capacity, key=lambda row: row.aum) + if at_capacity else min(curve.results, key=lambda row: row.aum) + ) + result.sharpe_at_capacity = _json_float( + chosen.sharpe_ratio, 0.0, + ) or 0.0 + else: + result.curve_reason = ( + "the research context is too short to simulate an AUM curve" + ) + except Exception: + logger.exception("Capacity gauge: AUM curve simulation failed") + result.curve_reason = ( + "the AUM-Sharpe curve simulation failed; the ADV-based capacity " + "above is unaffected (see the server log)" + ) + + result.available = True + result.reason = "" return result @@ -316,26 +1007,35 @@ async def update_monitor_config(req: ConfigUpdateRequest): limits = {} try: + # Build the whole new limits object and swap it in with one attribute + # assignment. The previous per-field writes left a window in which an + # engine thread could observe a half-applied limit set (e.g. a new + # position cap with the old drawdown cap), and a failure midway left + # the monitor in that torn state. + changes: dict[str, Any] = {} if req.max_position_pct is not None: # The dataclass field is `max_single_position_pct`. Writing # `max_position_pct` used to succeed silently on the instance and # be read by nothing, so the endpoint reported success while the # enforced limit never moved. - risk.limits.max_single_position_pct = req.max_position_pct + changes["max_single_position_pct"] = req.max_position_pct updated.append("max_position_pct") if req.max_sector_pct is not None: - risk.limits.max_sector_pct = req.max_sector_pct + changes["max_sector_pct"] = req.max_sector_pct updated.append("max_sector_pct") if req.max_drawdown_pct is not None: - risk.limits.max_drawdown_pct = req.max_drawdown_pct + changes["max_drawdown_pct"] = req.max_drawdown_pct updated.append("max_drawdown_pct") if req.max_daily_loss_pct is not None: - risk.limits.max_daily_loss_pct = req.max_daily_loss_pct + changes["max_daily_loss_pct"] = req.max_daily_loss_pct updated.append("max_daily_loss_pct") + if changes: + risk.limits = replace(risk.limits, **changes) + # Read back current limits status = risk.get_status() limits = status.get("limits", {}) @@ -349,7 +1049,12 @@ async def update_monitor_config(req: ConfigUpdateRequest): }, source="monitor") except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Monitor config update failed") + raise HTTPException( + status_code=500, + detail="Risk config update failed; see server logs", + headers={"X-Error-Code": "monitor_config_update_failed"}, + ) from e return ConfigUpdateResponse(updated=updated, limits=limits) @@ -366,24 +1071,43 @@ async def monitor_kill_switch(req: KillSwitchRequest): try: if req.activate: - risk.activate_kill_switch(reason=req.reason) + risk.activate_kill_switch(reason=req.reason, actor="api/monitor") msg = f"Kill Switch ACTIVATED: {req.reason}" else: - risk.deactivate_kill_switch() + risk.deactivate_kill_switch( + reason=req.reason, actor="api/monitor", + ) msg = "Kill Switch DEACTIVATED" + # S21: tell the operator whether the emergency action is durable. + try: + status = risk.get_status() + persisted = bool(status.get("persisted", False)) + persist_error = bool(status.get("persist_error", False)) + except Exception: + persisted, persist_error = False, False + # Broadcast via EventBus bus = _get_bus() if bus: bus.publish("risk.kill_switch", { "active": req.activate, "reason": req.reason, + "persisted": persisted, }, source="monitor") - return KillSwitchResponse(active=req.activate, message=msg) + return KillSwitchResponse( + active=req.activate, message=msg, persisted=persisted, + persist_error=persist_error, + ) except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Monitor kill-switch update failed") + raise HTTPException( + status_code=500, + detail="Kill switch update failed; see server logs", + headers={"X-Error-Code": "monitor_kill_switch_failed"}, + ) from e # ── Helpers ── diff --git a/api/research_context.py b/api/research_context.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..27c9356 --- /dev/null +++ b/api/research_context.py @@ -0,0 +1,539 @@ +"""Bounded, TTL-cached research context shared by analysis/monitor endpoints. + +The analysis endpoints that used to answer ``available: false`` did so because +a stored run keeps only ``chart_data`` (equity curve + IC summaries), not the +factor panel or per-period returns. Fabricating the missing numbers was the +original defect; the honest alternative is to recompute them from the same +inputs ``python main.py run`` uses. + +This module builds that input set once -- data, processed factors, the alpha +signal -- through the canonical ``_load_data`` / ``_compute_factors`` / +``_generate_signal`` path in :mod:`quant_platform.main`, so PIT masks, price +basis and provenance all come from the run pipeline rather than being +re-derived here. + +Cost control: + +* The full pipeline is CPU-heavy. ``get_research_context`` runs it on the + API's analytics executor through ``routes._run_analytics``, which rejects + requests with ``429`` + ``Retry-After`` when its two workers are busy. +* Built contexts are cached for ``CONTEXT_TTL_SECONDS`` (default 300 s), + keyed by the materialized config, effective provider identity, universe + settings and date range. At most ``CONTEXT_MAX_ENTRIES`` contexts are kept. +* Concurrent requests for the same key are single-flighted with a per-key + lock: the second caller waits, then re-reads the cache instead of running + the pipeline twice. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import asyncio +import copy +import hashlib +import json +import os +import threading +import time +from collections import OrderedDict +from dataclasses import dataclass, replace +from datetime import UTC, date, datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any + +import pandas as pd + +from quant_platform.main import ( + _compute_factors, + _generate_signal, + _load_data, + _resolve_provider, +) +from quant_platform.utils.cache import PipelineCache, materialize_config +from quant_platform.utils.config import load_config +from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger + +logger = get_logger(__name__) + +#: How long a built context may be served without recomputation. +CONTEXT_TTL_SECONDS = 300.0 +#: Maximum number of cached contexts (the task book asks for 1-2). +CONTEXT_MAX_ENTRIES = 2 +#: Maximum number of per-key single-flight locks kept around. +_KEY_LOCK_ENTRIES = 8 +#: Trailing sessions used by the factor-statistics endpoints (IC decay, +#: correlation, factor status). A full five-year panel made these endpoints +#: take minutes on the default 500-name universe; a stated trailing year is +#: the standard monitoring horizon and is reported back to the client as +#: ``window_sessions``/``panel_start``. +ANALYSIS_WINDOW_SESSIONS = 252 + +#: Bounds for request-supplied date overrides. Without them a single query +#: (``start_date=0001-01-01&end_date=9999-12-31``) built a multi-million-row +#: panel before any cap and could OOM the process. +_MIN_WINDOW_DATE = date(2000, 1, 1) +_MAX_WINDOW_DATE = date(2100, 12, 31) +_MAX_WINDOW_DAYS = 3653 # 10 years + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class ResearchContext: + """Everything the analysis endpoints need, computed by the run pipeline.""" + + prices: pd.DataFrame + returns: pd.DataFrame + benchmark: Any + metadata: Any + financials: Any + turnover: pd.DataFrame | None + processed_factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] + ic_results: dict[str, dict] + sector_map: dict + fin_unstacked: pd.DataFrame | None + signal: pd.DataFrame + config: Any + provider: str + synthetic: bool + config_hash: str + as_of: str + computed_at: str + start_date: str + end_date: str + cached: bool = False + + @property + def n_sessions(self) -> int: + try: + return int(len(self.prices.index)) + except Exception: # defensive: provenance must not break a response + return 0 + + @property + def n_assets(self) -> int: + try: + return int(len(self.prices.columns)) + except Exception: + return 0 + + def provenance(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Fields every wired endpoint echoes so the UI can label its data.""" + return { + "as_of": self.as_of, + "provider": self.provider, + "synthetic": bool(self.synthetic), + "config_hash": self.config_hash, + "computed_at": self.computed_at, + "cached": bool(self.cached), + "start_date": self.start_date, + "end_date": self.end_date, + "n_sessions": self.n_sessions, + "n_assets": self.n_assets, + } + + +# ── TTL cache ── + +_cache: OrderedDict[str, tuple[float, ResearchContext]] = OrderedDict() +_cache_lock = threading.Lock() +_key_locks: OrderedDict[str, threading.Lock] = OrderedDict() + +# Derived endpoint results (IC decay, walk-forward folds, ...) are as +# expensive as the context itself, so they share the same TTL. Bounded and +# keyed by the context hash plus the endpoint's own parameters. +_derived_cache: OrderedDict[str, tuple[float, Any]] = OrderedDict() +_DERIVED_MAX_ENTRIES = 8 + +# Provider resolution can be expensive (a Postgres provider opens a +# connection, a validated setup probes a secondary source), so the resolved +# provider is memoized per (materialized config, dates, config-file identity). +# The parsed YAML itself is cached until the file changes. Both keep the +# event loop free of provider construction. +_config_cache: dict[tuple, Any] = {} +_config_cache_lock = threading.Lock() +_resolution_cache: OrderedDict[str, tuple[float, dict]] = OrderedDict() +_RESOLUTION_MAX_ENTRIES = 4 + + +def _default_config_identity() -> tuple: + path = os.environ.get("QUANT_CONFIG") or str( + Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "config" / "default.yaml" + ) + try: + stat = os.stat(path) + file_key = (stat.st_mtime_ns, stat.st_size) + except OSError: + file_key = (0, 0) + return (path, file_key, os.environ.get("QUANT_DATA_PROVIDER", "")) + + +def _load_base_config(identity: tuple) -> Any: + with _config_cache_lock: + cached = _config_cache.get(identity) + if cached is not None: + return cached + config = load_config() + with _config_cache_lock: + _config_cache.clear() + _config_cache[identity] = config + return config + + +def _resolution_get(key: str) -> dict | None: + now = time.monotonic() + with _cache_lock: + entry = _resolution_cache.get(key) + if entry is None: + return None + expires_at, value = entry + if now >= expires_at: + _resolution_cache.pop(key, None) + return None + _resolution_cache.move_to_end(key) + return value + + +def _resolution_put(key: str, resolution: dict, context_key: str) -> None: + with _cache_lock: + _resolution_cache.pop(key, None) + _resolution_cache[key] = ( + time.monotonic() + CONTEXT_TTL_SECONDS, + {"resolution": resolution, "context_key": context_key}, + ) + while len(_resolution_cache) > _RESOLUTION_MAX_ENTRIES: + _resolution_cache.popitem(last=False) + + +def derived_key(context: ResearchContext, name: str, params: Any = None) -> str: + payload = json.dumps( + [context.config_hash, name, params], sort_keys=True, default=str, + ) + return hashlib.md5(payload.encode()).hexdigest() + + +def derived_cache_get(key: str) -> Any | None: + now = time.monotonic() + with _cache_lock: + entry = _derived_cache.get(key) + if entry is None: + return None + expires_at, value = entry + if now >= expires_at: + _derived_cache.pop(key, None) + return None + _derived_cache.move_to_end(key) + return value + + +def derived_cache_put(key: str, value: Any) -> None: + with _cache_lock: + _derived_cache.pop(key, None) + _derived_cache[key] = (time.monotonic() + CONTEXT_TTL_SECONDS, value) + while len(_derived_cache) > _DERIVED_MAX_ENTRIES: + _derived_cache.popitem(last=False) + + +def _cache_get(key: str) -> ResearchContext | None: + now = time.monotonic() + with _cache_lock: + entry = _cache.get(key) + if entry is None: + return None + expires_at, context = entry + if now >= expires_at: + _cache.pop(key, None) + return None + _cache.move_to_end(key) + return context + + +def _cache_put(key: str, context: ResearchContext) -> None: + with _cache_lock: + _cache.pop(key, None) + _cache[key] = (time.monotonic() + CONTEXT_TTL_SECONDS, context) + while len(_cache) > CONTEXT_MAX_ENTRIES: + _cache.popitem(last=False) + + +def _key_lock_for(key: str) -> threading.Lock: + """Per-key single-flight lock, bounded like the context cache.""" + with _cache_lock: + lock = _key_locks.get(key) + if lock is None: + lock = threading.Lock() + _key_locks[key] = lock + _key_locks.move_to_end(key) + # Evicting an in-use lock is safe: the holder/waiters keep their + # reference; a later request simply gets a fresh lock. Worst case is + # one duplicate load, still bounded by the analytics semaphore. + while len(_key_locks) > _KEY_LOCK_ENTRIES: + _key_locks.popitem(last=False) + return lock + + +def reset_context_cache() -> None: + """Drop every cached context, resolution and lock (tests / config reload).""" + with _cache_lock: + _cache.clear() + _key_locks.clear() + _derived_cache.clear() + _resolution_cache.clear() + with _config_cache_lock: + _config_cache.clear() + + +# ── Config / key ── + + +def parse_window( + start_date: str | None, end_date: str | None, +) -> tuple[str | None, str | None]: + """Validate optional ISO date overrides from a request. + + Raises ``ValueError`` with a client-safe message; the endpoints translate + it to HTTP 422. Dates are bounded to 2000-01-01..2100-12-31 and a window + to at most 10 years: ``?start_date=0001-01-01&end_date=9999-12-31`` used + to build a multi-million-row panel before any cap (OOM). + """ + parsed: list[str | None] = [] + for label, value in (("start_date", start_date), ("end_date", end_date)): + if value is None or value == "": + parsed.append(None) + continue + try: + parsed_date = date.fromisoformat(str(value)) + except ValueError: + raise ValueError(f"{label} must be an ISO date (YYYY-MM-DD)") from None + if not _MIN_WINDOW_DATE <= parsed_date <= _MAX_WINDOW_DATE: + raise ValueError( + f"{label} must be between {_MIN_WINDOW_DATE.isoformat()} and " + f"{_MAX_WINDOW_DATE.isoformat()}" + ) + parsed.append(parsed_date.isoformat()) + start, end = parsed + # One-sided overrides are resolved against the config they will be merged + # into before the span check: `?end_date=2100-12-31` alone used to pass + # validation and then expand the default 2021 start into a 29k-day window. + if start is not None or end is not None: + effective_start, effective_end = start, end + if effective_start is None or effective_end is None: + try: + base = _load_base_config(_default_config_identity()) + effective_start = effective_start or str(base.data.start_date) + effective_end = effective_end or str(base.data.end_date) + except Exception: + effective_start, effective_end = start, end + if effective_start is not None and effective_end is not None: + try: + start_day = date.fromisoformat(str(effective_start)[:10]) + end_day = date.fromisoformat(str(effective_end)[:10]) + except ValueError: + raise ValueError( + "effective data window is not an ISO date pair", + ) from None + if start_day >= end_day: + raise ValueError("start_date must be earlier than end_date") + if (end_day - start_day).days > _MAX_WINDOW_DAYS: + raise ValueError("date span must be at most 10 years") + return start, end + + +def _prepare_config( + *, + config: Any | None = None, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, +) -> tuple[Any, tuple]: + """Load a private config copy for this request and its file identity. + + The parsed YAML is reused until the config file changes; each request + still gets its own copy because the date overrides are applied in place. + """ + if config is not None: + cfg = copy.deepcopy(config) + identity: tuple = ("caller",) + else: + identity = _default_config_identity() + cfg = copy.deepcopy(_load_base_config(identity)) + if start_date is not None: + cfg.data.start_date = start_date + if end_date is not None: + cfg.data.end_date = end_date + return cfg, identity + + +def _resolution_memo_key(config: Any, identity: tuple) -> str: + payload = json.dumps( + [materialize_config(config), identity], sort_keys=True, default=str, + ) + return hashlib.md5(payload.encode()).hexdigest() + + +def make_context_key(config: Any, resolution: dict) -> str: + """Cache identity: materialized config, provider identity, universe, dates.""" + return PipelineCache.make_data_cache_key( + config=config, + provider_identity=resolution.get("identity") or {}, + symbols=None, + overrides={"stage": "research_context"}, + start_date=str(config.data.start_date), + end_date=str(config.data.end_date), + ) + + +# ── Build ── + + +def _load_context_uncached(config: Any, resolution: dict, key: str) -> ResearchContext: + """Run data -> factors -> signal. Always called on an analytics worker.""" + prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data( + config, resolution=resolution, + ) + processed_factors, ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( + prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config, + ) + signal = _generate_signal( + config, processed_factors, returns, prices=prices, volume=turnover, + ) + + identity = resolution.get("identity") or {} + as_of = "" + if prices is not None and len(prices.index) > 0: + as_of = str(prices.index[-1])[:10] + + logger.info( + "Research context built: key=%s provider=%s sessions=%d assets=%d " + "factors=%d as_of=%s", + key, + resolution.get("effective_provider") or resolution.get("provider_name"), + 0 if prices is None else len(prices.index), + 0 if prices is None else len(prices.columns), + len(processed_factors), + as_of, + ) + + return ResearchContext( + prices=prices, + returns=returns, + benchmark=benchmark, + metadata=metadata, + financials=financials, + turnover=turnover, + processed_factors=processed_factors, + ic_results=ic_results, + sector_map=sector_map, + fin_unstacked=fin_unstacked, + signal=signal, + config=config, + provider=str( + resolution.get("effective_provider") + or resolution.get("provider_name") + or "" + ), + synthetic=bool(identity.get("synthetic")), + config_hash=key, + as_of=as_of, + computed_at=datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(), + start_date=str(config.data.start_date), + end_date=str(config.data.end_date), + ) + + +def _load_and_cache(config: Any, resolution: dict, key: str) -> ResearchContext: + """Single-flight load for one key; re-checks the cache under the key lock.""" + with _key_lock_for(key): + cached = _cache_get(key) + if cached is not None: + return replace(cached, cached=True) + context = _load_context_uncached(config, resolution, key) + _cache_put(key, context) + return context + + +def _resolve_and_load(config: Any, memo_key: str) -> ResearchContext: + """Resolve the provider, compute the context key and load (worker only).""" + resolution = _resolve_provider(config, with_universe=False) + key = make_context_key(config, resolution) + _resolution_put(memo_key, resolution, key) + cached = _cache_get(key) + if cached is not None: + return replace(cached, cached=True) + return _load_and_cache(config, resolution, key) + + +#: One in-flight build per key. A dashboard that opens correlation and +#: ic-decay (or a reload while the first build runs) must not spend both +#: analytics slots on the same context: followers await the leader's future +#: without occupying a worker. +_inflight_lock = threading.Lock() +_inflight: dict[str, asyncio.Future] = {} + + +async def _single_flight(key: str, factory): + loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + with _inflight_lock: + future = _inflight.get(key) + leader = future is None + if leader: + future = loop.create_future() + _inflight[key] = future + if not leader: + return await asyncio.shield(future) + try: + result = await factory() + except BaseException as exc: + if not future.done(): + future.set_exception(exc) + raise + else: + if not future.done(): + future.set_result(result) + return result + finally: + with _inflight_lock: + if _inflight.get(key) is future: + _inflight.pop(key, None) + + +async def get_research_context( + *, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + config: Any | None = None, +) -> ResearchContext: + """Return the (possibly cached) research context for the configured data. + + Runs the build on the shared analytics executor, so the event loop is + never blocked and saturation surfaces as ``429`` with ``Retry-After``. + Provider resolution (which can open a database connection or probe a + network source) also runs on a worker, only when the resolution memo is + missing or expired; cache hits stay cheap. + """ + start, end = parse_window(start_date, end_date) + cfg, identity = _prepare_config( + config=config, start_date=start, end_date=end, + ) + memo_key = _resolution_memo_key(cfg, identity) + + memo = _resolution_get(memo_key) + if memo is not None: + context_key = memo["context_key"] + cached = _cache_get(context_key) + if cached is not None: + return replace(cached, cached=True) + # The resolution is still valid but the context expired: rebuild with + # the memoized provider on a worker. + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + + return await _single_flight( + f"ctx:{context_key}", + lambda: routes_module._run_analytics( + _load_and_cache, cfg, memo["resolution"], context_key, + ), + ) + + # Imported lazily: routes imports this module at startup. + from quant_platform.api import routes as routes_module + + return await _single_flight( + f"memo:{memo_key}", + lambda: routes_module._run_analytics(_resolve_and_load, cfg, memo_key), + ) diff --git a/api/routes.py b/api/routes.py index a3f0b7f..8ff4097 100644 --- a/api/routes.py +++ b/api/routes.py @@ -4,17 +4,34 @@ import asyncio import json +import math import os +import re +import secrets +import threading +import time import traceback import uuid +import warnings from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor -from datetime import datetime +from datetime import datetime, timedelta from typing import Any import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, WebSocket, WebSocketDisconnect - +from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException, Query, Request, WebSocket, WebSocketDisconnect +from starlette.concurrency import run_in_threadpool + +from quant_platform.api.research_context import ( + ANALYSIS_WINDOW_SESSIONS, + ResearchContext, + _key_lock_for, + derived_cache_get, + derived_cache_put, + derived_key, + get_research_context, + parse_window, +) from quant_platform.api.schemas import ( AttributionItem, BarraCovarianceResponse, @@ -47,6 +64,7 @@ PerformanceMetrics, PostgresStoreStatsResponse, RealtimeQuoteResponse, + RiskDecomposeRequest, RiskMetrics, RunRequest, RunResult, @@ -61,15 +79,20 @@ TradeFlowResponse, TurnoverItem, VWAPResponse, + WalkForwardRequest, WebSocketStatsResponse, ) +from quant_platform.core.context import TenantContext +from quant_platform.core.instrument import normalize_symbol from quant_platform.execution.oms import OrderManager from quant_platform.main import ( _compute_factors, + _execution_gates, _generate_signal, _load_data, _run_backtest, ) +from quant_platform.research.holdout import sweep_guard_message from quant_platform.utils.config import load_config from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger @@ -77,50 +100,295 @@ router = APIRouter(prefix="/api") -# Thread pool for background pipeline execution -_executor = ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=2) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Executors: pipeline work and analytics work get separate, bounded pools. +# +# One shared two-worker pool meant a `/compare` request could sit in front of +# an accepted pipeline run, and a burst of analytics requests queued without +# bound. Pipeline runs keep the existing 2-active-run cap; analytics requests +# are rejected with 429 when both analytics workers are busy. +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +_PIPELINE_WORKERS = 2 +_ANALYTICS_WORKERS = 2 +_executors_lock = threading.Lock() +_pipeline_executor: ThreadPoolExecutor | None = None +_analytics_executor: ThreadPoolExecutor | None = None +_analytics_slots = threading.BoundedSemaphore(_ANALYTICS_WORKERS) + + +def _make_pipeline_executor() -> ThreadPoolExecutor: + return ThreadPoolExecutor( + max_workers=_PIPELINE_WORKERS, thread_name_prefix="pipeline", + ) + -# In-memory store for run results (thread-safe for CPython dict ops) +def _make_analytics_executor() -> ThreadPoolExecutor: + return ThreadPoolExecutor( + max_workers=_ANALYTICS_WORKERS, thread_name_prefix="analytics", + ) + + +def _get_pipeline_executor() -> ThreadPoolExecutor: + global _pipeline_executor + executor = _pipeline_executor + if executor is None: + with _executors_lock: + if _pipeline_executor is None: + _pipeline_executor = _make_pipeline_executor() + executor = _pipeline_executor + return executor + + +def _get_analytics_executor() -> ThreadPoolExecutor: + global _analytics_executor + executor = _analytics_executor + if executor is None: + with _executors_lock: + if _analytics_executor is None: + _analytics_executor = _make_analytics_executor() + executor = _analytics_executor + return executor + + +def ensure_executors() -> None: + """Create the executors if they are absent. + + Called at application startup so a process that shut its executors down + (lifespan exit) and then started again -- as repeated `TestClient` + lifespans do -- still has live pools. + """ + _get_pipeline_executor() + _get_analytics_executor() + + +def _shutdown_executor(executor: ThreadPoolExecutor | None) -> None: + if executor is None: + return + try: + executor.shutdown(wait=True, cancel_futures=True) + except Exception: + logger.exception("Executor shutdown failed") + + +def shutdown_executors() -> None: + """Stop both pools. Does not wait past each pool's own in-flight work. + + Python cannot kill a running thread; `cancel_futures=True` only cancels + work that has not started. A pipeline already inside `_execute_pipeline` + keeps running until it returns, which is the documented limitation. + """ + global _pipeline_executor, _analytics_executor + with _executors_lock: + pipeline, analytics = _pipeline_executor, _analytics_executor + _pipeline_executor = None + _analytics_executor = None + _shutdown_executor(analytics) + _shutdown_executor(pipeline) + + +# In-memory store for run results. Every access goes through `_run_lock`: +# cleanup runs on pipeline worker threads while HTTP handlers iterate the +# same dicts on the loop, and a status-blind cleanup could evict a run that +# was still executing. +_run_lock = threading.RLock() _run_store: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {} _run_status: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {} -_MAX_RUNS = 50 # Keep at most this many completed runs in memory +_MAX_RUNS = 50 # Keep at most this many finished runs in memory +_RUN_LIMIT = 2 +_run_slots = threading.BoundedSemaphore(_RUN_LIMIT) +_run_slot_holders: set[str] = set() +_run_futures: dict[str, Any] = {} + + +class RunStatusWithPhase(RunStatus): + """RunStatus plus an additive phase field. + + `status` keeps the values the UI already understands ("running" while a + run is queued or executing); `phase` distinguishes the two so a client is + not told a run is executing when it is still waiting for a worker. + """ + + phase: str = "executing" + + +# WebSocket connection manager for real-time updates. +# +# Each client gets its own bounded queue and sender task. The old broadcast +# iterated `_ws_clients` across `await ws.send_text(...)`, so a connect or +# disconnect during a send raised "Set changed size during iteration" and +# silently dropped the message for every remaining client; a single slow +# client also delayed all the others. +_WS_QUEUE_SIZE = 256 +_WS_SEND_TIMEOUT = 5.0 +_WS_MAX_CLIENTS = 100 +_ws_pending = 0 # handshakes between the cap check and `accept()` +_HIGH_RATE_TOPICS = frozenset({"market.tick"}) +_LOOPBACK_HOSTS = ("127.0.0.1", "::1", "localhost", "testclient") + -# WebSocket connection manager for real-time updates -_ws_clients: set[WebSocket] = set() +class _WSClient: + """One connected WebSocket plus its bounded outbound queue.""" + + __slots__ = ("ws", "queue", "task", "closed", "dropped") + + def __init__(self, ws: WebSocket): + self.ws = ws + self.queue: asyncio.Queue[str] = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=_WS_QUEUE_SIZE) + self.task: asyncio.Task | None = None + self.closed = False + self.dropped = 0 + + +_ws_clients: set[_WSClient] = set() # The server's event loop, captured by the first WebSocket connection. Events # are published from worker threads, which cannot look their own loop up. _main_loop: asyncio.AbstractEventLoop | None = None +def _serialize_ws_payload(payload: dict) -> str | None: + """Serialize a broadcast payload, logging instead of raising. + + `json.dumps` used to sit outside the try block, so one unserializable + event payload (e.g. a numpy scalar) killed the whole broadcast. + """ + try: + return json.dumps(payload) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + logger.exception("Dropping WebSocket broadcast: payload is not serializable") + return None + + +def _enqueue_ws_message(msg: str, topic: str = "") -> None: + """Fan a message out to every live client without awaiting. + + Never awaits, so the live set cannot change under it and a slow client + cannot head-of-line block the rest. When a client's queue is full the + oldest message is dropped: for high-rate topics like `market.tick` the + newest tick is worth more than the backlog, and a bounded queue is what + keeps one stalled browser from growing server memory without limit. + """ + for client in tuple(_ws_clients): + if client.closed: + _ws_clients.discard(client) + continue + try: + client.queue.put_nowait(msg) + continue + except asyncio.QueueFull: + pass + try: + client.queue.get_nowait() + except asyncio.QueueEmpty: + pass + try: + client.queue.put_nowait(msg) + except asyncio.QueueFull: + pass + client.dropped += 1 + if client.dropped == 1 or client.dropped % 1000 == 0: + logger.warning( + "WebSocket client queue full (dropped=%d, topic=%s); " + "dropping the oldest message", + client.dropped, topic or "status", + ) + + async def _broadcast_status(run_id: str, status: dict): """Push status update to all connected WebSocket clients.""" - global _ws_clients if not _ws_clients: return - msg = json.dumps({"type": "status", "run_id": run_id, **status}) - dead = set() - for ws in _ws_clients: - try: - await ws.send_text(msg) - except Exception: - dead.add(ws) - _ws_clients -= dead + msg = _serialize_ws_payload({"type": "status", "run_id": run_id, **status}) + if msg is None: + return + _enqueue_ws_message(msg, topic="status") async def _broadcast_event(event_type: str, data: dict): """Push an event to all connected WebSocket clients.""" - global _ws_clients if not _ws_clients: return - msg = json.dumps({"type": "event", "event": event_type, "data": data, "ts": datetime.now().isoformat()}) - dead = set() - for ws in _ws_clients: + msg = _serialize_ws_payload({ + "type": "event", "event": event_type, "data": data, + "ts": datetime.now().isoformat(), + }) + if msg is None: + return + _enqueue_ws_message( + msg, + topic=event_type if event_type in _HIGH_RATE_TOPICS else "", + ) + + +async def _ws_sender_loop(client: _WSClient) -> None: + """Deliver one client's queued messages until it fails or disconnects.""" + try: + while True: + msg = await client.queue.get() + if client.closed: + break + try: + await asyncio.wait_for( + client.ws.send_text(msg), timeout=_WS_SEND_TIMEOUT, + ) + except asyncio.CancelledError: + raise + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning( + "WebSocket send failed or timed out (%.0fs); closing client: %s", + _WS_SEND_TIMEOUT, exc, + ) + break + except asyncio.CancelledError: + pass + finally: + client.closed = True + _ws_clients.discard(client) try: - await ws.send_text(msg) + await asyncio.wait_for(client.ws.close(), timeout=1.0) except Exception: - dead.add(ws) - _ws_clients -= dead + pass + + +async def _close_all_ws_clients() -> None: + """Close every live WebSocket (lifespan shutdown).""" + for client in tuple(_ws_clients): + client.closed = True + _ws_clients.discard(client) + task = client.task + if task is not None and not task.done(): + task.cancel() + try: + await asyncio.wait_for(client.ws.close(), timeout=1.0) + except Exception: + pass + + +def _log_broadcast_future(future) -> None: + """Surface exceptions from a fire-and-forget broadcast future. + + The returned future used to be discarded, so a RuntimeError raised by the + broadcast coroutine was never retrieved or logged. + """ + try: + exc = future.exception() + except Exception: + return + if exc is not None: + logger.error("WebSocket broadcast failed: %s", exc, exc_info=exc) + + +def _submit_broadcast(coro, loop: asyncio.AbstractEventLoop | None) -> None: + if loop is None: + coro.close() + return + try: + future = asyncio.run_coroutine_threadsafe(coro, loop) + except RuntimeError: + coro.close() + return + future.add_done_callback(_log_broadcast_future) def _remember_loop() -> asyncio.AbstractEventLoop | None: @@ -151,16 +419,15 @@ def _on_bus_event(event): since the only trace was the absence of messages. Handing the coroutine to the server's loop works from any thread, so the - event no longer depends on which thread published it. + event no longer depends on which thread published it. The returned future + is retained with a done callback that logs, instead of vanishing. """ if not _ws_clients: return loop = _main_loop if loop is None or loop.is_closed() or not loop.is_running(): return - asyncio.run_coroutine_threadsafe( - _broadcast_event(event.topic, event.data), loop - ) + _submit_broadcast(_broadcast_event(event.topic, event.data), loop) def _latest_run_id() -> str: @@ -172,28 +439,324 @@ def _latest_run_id() -> str: against empty string, so `max` returned the first-inserted run and IC decay and factor correlation always served the *oldest* run. `started_at` lives in `_run_status`. + + A snapshot is taken under `_run_lock`: cleanup runs on pipeline worker + threads and mutates the same dict. """ - if not _run_status: - raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") - return max( - _run_status.keys(), - key=lambda k: _run_status[k].get("started_at", "") or "", - ) + with _run_lock: + if not _run_status: + raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") + return max( + _run_status, + key=lambda k: (_run_status.get(k) or {}).get("started_at", "") or "", + ) + + +_TERMINAL_RUN_STATUSES = ("completed", "failed") def _cleanup_old_runs(): - """Remove oldest completed runs to keep memory bounded.""" - if len(_run_store) <= _MAX_RUNS: - return - completed = [ - (rid, s.get("completed_at", "")) - for rid, s in _run_status.items() - if s.get("status") in ("completed", "failed") - ] - completed.sort(key=lambda x: x[1]) - for rid, _ in completed[: len(completed) - _MAX_RUNS]: - _run_store.pop(rid, None) - _run_status.pop(rid, None) + """Bound both the result store and the status store. + + `_run_store` only receives successful runs, so cleaning it alone let every + failed run keep a full traceback in `_run_status` for the process + lifetime. + + Only finished runs are evicted. The old final loop dropped the oldest + entries regardless of status, so a cleanup triggered by >100 accumulated + entries could delete a *running* run record (reproduced: 120 running + entries -> 20 evicted). + """ + with _run_lock: + if len(_run_store) <= _MAX_RUNS and len(_run_status) <= _MAX_RUNS: + return + + finished = [ + (rid, s.get("completed_at") or s.get("started_at") or "") + for rid, s in _run_status.items() + if s.get("status") in _TERMINAL_RUN_STATUSES + ] + finished.sort(key=lambda x: x[1]) + excess = max( + len(_run_store) - _MAX_RUNS, + len(_run_status) - _MAX_RUNS, + 1, + ) + for rid, _ in finished[:excess]: + _run_store.pop(rid, None) + _run_status.pop(rid, None) + + stuck = sum( + 1 for s in _run_status.values() + if s.get("status") not in _TERMINAL_RUN_STATUSES + ) + if stuck > _MAX_RUNS * 2: + # Deliberately no eviction: a running/queued record is the handle + # a client polls, and deleting it turns a slow run into a 404. + logger.error( + "Run registry holds %d non-terminal entries (cap %d); " + "refusing to evict active runs", + stuck, _MAX_RUNS * 2, + ) + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Run registry helpers (all mutations under `_run_lock`) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +def _set_run_fields(run_id: str, **fields: Any) -> dict | None: + """Update a status entry if it still exists; returns a snapshot.""" + with _run_lock: + entry = _run_status.get(run_id) + if entry is None: + return None + entry.update(fields) + return dict(entry) + + +def _run_status_snapshot(run_id: str) -> dict | None: + with _run_lock: + entry = _run_status.get(run_id) + return dict(entry) if entry is not None else None + + +def _release_run_slot(run_id: str) -> None: + """Release a pipeline slot exactly once. + + Called from `_execute_pipeline`'s guaranteed finally *and* from the + executor future's done callback; the holder set makes the second call a + no-op, so a failed submit (which never runs the body) still frees its + slot and a normal completion cannot double-release. + """ + with _run_lock: + if run_id not in _run_slot_holders: + return + _run_slot_holders.discard(run_id) + try: + _run_slots.release() + except ValueError: + pass + + +def _mark_run_failed_unexpected(run_id: str, exc: BaseException) -> None: + """Mark a run failed when its worker future dies outside the catch path. + + `_execute_pipeline` catches `Exception`, not `BaseException`, and an + exception raised inside its own except/finally escapes into the discarded + Future. Without this callback the run stayed "running" forever and held + its slot, so two such runs made every later POST /run return 429 until + the process restarted. + """ + snapshot = None + with _run_lock: + entry = _run_status.get(run_id) + if entry is not None and entry.get("status") == "running": + entry.update( + status="failed", + phase="failed", + error=f"{type(exc).__name__}: pipeline worker exited unexpectedly"[:500], + completed_at=datetime.now().isoformat(), + ) + snapshot = dict(entry) + logger.error( + "Pipeline run %s exited unexpectedly: %r", run_id, exc, exc_info=exc, + ) + if snapshot is not None: + _submit_broadcast(_broadcast_status(run_id, snapshot), _main_loop) + + +def _on_run_future_done(run_id: str, future) -> None: + """Done callback for a pipeline executor future.""" + try: + exc = future.exception() + except BaseException as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - cancelled futures raise here + _mark_run_failed_unexpected(run_id, exc) + else: + if exc is not None: + _mark_run_failed_unexpected(run_id, exc) + with _run_lock: + _run_futures.pop(run_id, None) + _release_run_slot(run_id) + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Small bounded primitives shared by several endpoints +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +def _bounded_limit(value: int, default: int = 100, maximum: int = 1000) -> int: + """Clamp a caller-supplied limit (same rule as `store._clamp_limit`).""" + try: + number = int(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError, OverflowError): + return default + return max(0, min(number, maximum)) + + +#: Tenant ids accepted from the API: bounded, path-safe-looking identifiers. +_TENANT_ID_RE = re.compile(r"[A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]{0,63}\Z") + + +def _resolve_tenant( + request: Request, tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +) -> str: + """Resolve the tenant scope of a core-store/audit read. + + Precedence: explicit ``tenant_id`` query/value, ``X-Tenant-Id`` header, + then the current :class:`TenantContext` (``"default"`` when unset). The + API deliberately never falls back to "every tenant": a cross-tenant read + requires ``all_tenants=true`` and a loopback client. The shared + ``QUANT_API_TOKEN`` authenticates a consumer, it is **not** a tenant + boundary -- tenants are an explicit, trusted-header convention. + + Returns ``""`` for the explicit cross-tenant ("all") scope. + """ + header_tenant = (request.headers.get("X-Tenant-Id") or "").strip() + candidate = ( + (tenant_id or "").strip() + or header_tenant + or TenantContext.get_current().tenant_id + or "default" + ) + if not _TENANT_ID_RE.fullmatch(candidate): + raise HTTPException( + 422, + "tenant_id must match [A-Za-z0-9][A-Za-z0-9._-]{0,63}", + ) + if all_tenants: + host = request.client.host if request.client else "" + if host not in _LOOPBACK_HOSTS: + raise HTTPException( + 403, + "all_tenants=true is loopback-only; pass a tenant_id or " + "X-Tenant-Id to read a single tenant", + ) + return "" + return candidate + + + +def _error_code_header(code: str) -> dict[str, str]: + """Stable machine-readable code for a 5xx response. + + The HTTP body keeps a generic human message (no exception text, paths or + SQL); the code lets clients and dashboards distinguish failures without + parsing prose. + """ + return {"X-Error-Code": code} + + +def _internal_error( + status_code: int, code: str, message: str, +) -> HTTPException: + return HTTPException( + status_code=status_code, + detail=message, + headers=_error_code_header(code), + ) + + +#: Bounded pool for sync endpoints that rerun the full data pipeline +#: (`_load_data` + `_compute_factors`). AnyIO's default limiter is 40 tokens, +#: so without this a burst could run dozens of full pipelines at once. +_COMPUTE_SLOTS = threading.BoundedSemaphore(2) + + +def _run_bounded_compute(fn, *args): + """Run a full-pipeline compute handler under the shared 2-slot bound.""" + if not _COMPUTE_SLOTS.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + status_code=429, + detail="Compute capacity exhausted; retry shortly", + headers={"Retry-After": "10"}, + ) + try: + return fn(*args) + finally: + _COMPUTE_SLOTS.release() + + +async def _run_analytics(fn, *args): + """Run an analytics job on the dedicated executor, 429 when saturated.""" + if not _analytics_slots.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + status_code=429, + detail="Analytics capacity exhausted; retry shortly", + headers={"Retry-After": "5"}, + ) + try: + loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + future = loop.run_in_executor(_get_analytics_executor(), fn, *args) + except Exception: + _analytics_slots.release() + raise + + def _release(_future) -> None: + try: + _analytics_slots.release() + except ValueError: + pass + + future.add_done_callback(_release) + return await future + + +def _json_float(value: Any, default: Any = None) -> Any: + """Coerce to a finite float; NaN/inf are not JSON. + + Starlette encodes JSON with ``allow_nan=False``, so an undefined metric + (e.g. a Sharpe ratio whose return series had zero variance) must become + ``None`` -- not NaN and not an invented zero. + """ + try: + number = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return default + return number if math.isfinite(number) else default + + +def _research_window( + start_date: Any, end_date: Any, +) -> tuple[str | None, str | None]: + """Validate request date overrides, raising a client-safe 422.""" + try: + return parse_window(start_date, end_date) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, str(exc)) from exc + + +async def _load_context_or_503( + start_date: str | None, end_date: str | None, +) -> ResearchContext: + """Fetch the cached research context; expose load failures as 503.""" + try: + return await get_research_context( + start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, + ) + except HTTPException: + raise + except Exception as exc: + logger.exception("Research context build failed") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "research_context_unavailable", + "Research data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from exc + + +def _derived_get(context: ResearchContext, name: str, params: Any) -> Any | None: + """Return a cached derived result, marking it as served from cache.""" + hit = derived_cache_get(derived_key(context, name, params)) + if hit is None: + return None + if isinstance(hit, dict): + out = dict(hit) + out["cached"] = True + return out + return hit + + +def _derived_store(context: ResearchContext, name: str, params: Any, value: Any) -> Any: + derived_cache_put(derived_key(context, name, params), value) + return value def _get_config_with_overrides(overrides: dict[str, Any]) -> Any: @@ -212,37 +775,302 @@ def _get_config_with_overrides(overrides: dict[str, Any]) -> Any: # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- -# Health +# Health / readiness # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +_READINESS_SCHEDULER_STALE_SECONDS = 90.0 +_READINESS_DATA_MAX_TRADING_DAYS = 2 + + +def _metric_gauge_value(name: str) -> float | None: + """Read a label-free gauge from the process metrics collector.""" + try: + from quant_platform.utils.metrics import get_metrics + + entry = get_metrics().get_snapshot().get(name) + if not entry: + return None + value = entry.get("value") + return float(value) if isinstance(value, (int, float)) else None + except Exception: + return None + + +def _trading_days_between(start_ts: float, end_ts: float) -> int: + """Exchange sessions between two epoch timestamps (Shanghai calendar).""" + from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo + + from quant_platform.core.exchange_calendar import is_trading_day + + tz = ZoneInfo("Asia/Shanghai") + start = datetime.fromtimestamp(start_ts, tz).date() + end = datetime.fromtimestamp(end_ts, tz).date() + if start >= end: + return 0 + count = 0 + cursor = start + timedelta(days=1) + while cursor <= end: + if is_trading_day(cursor): + count += 1 + cursor += timedelta(days=1) + return count + + +def _readiness_checks() -> tuple[bool, list[dict], dict]: + """Evaluate liveness of the trading components (S4 dead-man switch). + + Readiness only judges components that are expected to be running: a + research-only web deployment is ready without an engine, while a running + engine with a dead loop, a stalled scheduler during the session, or data + older than two trading days is not. + """ + now = time.time() + engine = _live_engine + engine_running = bool(engine is not None and getattr(engine, "_running", False)) + scheduler = getattr(engine, "_scheduler", None) if engine is not None else None + scheduler_running = bool( + scheduler is not None and getattr(scheduler, "_running", False) + ) + + checks: list[dict] = [] + + market_open = False + if scheduler is not None: + try: + market_open = bool(scheduler.is_market_open()) + except Exception: + market_open = False + # A live broker deliberately skips trading cycles outside the session; + # paper mode cycles continuously. The engine loop itself still beats + # every iteration (dead-man), but data is only expected when a fetch is + # due. + cycles_outside = getattr(engine, "cycles_outside_session", None) if engine else None + try: + expect_data = ( + scheduler is None + or market_open + or bool(cycles_outside() if callable(cycles_outside) else False) + ) + except Exception: + expect_data = True + + last_cycle = _metric_gauge_value("last_engine_cycle_timestamp") + if engine_running: + interval = float( + getattr(engine, "_rebalance_interval", 300) or 300 + ) + # 2x the interval, with a 60s floor: a full-market fetch can take + # longer than 2x a 5s interval, and a slow-but-alive cycle must not + # flap readiness. + max_age = max(interval * 2.0, 60.0) + age = None if last_cycle is None else max(0.0, now - last_cycle) + ok = age is not None and age <= max_age + checks.append({ + "name": "engine_cycle", + "ok": ok, + "last_timestamp": last_cycle, + "age_seconds": None if age is None else round(age, 1), + "max_age_seconds": max_age, + "reason": "" if ok else "engine loop heartbeat older than 2x interval", + }) + else: + checks.append({ + "name": "engine_cycle", "ok": True, "status": "not_running", + "last_timestamp": last_cycle, + }) + + last_tick = _metric_gauge_value("last_scheduler_tick_timestamp") + if engine_running and not scheduler_running: + checks.append({ + "name": "scheduler_tick", "ok": False, + "last_timestamp": last_tick, + "reason": "engine is running but its scheduler thread is not", + }) + elif scheduler_running: + age = None if last_tick is None else max(0.0, now - last_tick) + ok = age is not None and age <= _READINESS_SCHEDULER_STALE_SECONDS + checks.append({ + "name": "scheduler_tick", + "ok": ok, + "last_timestamp": last_tick, + "age_seconds": None if age is None else round(age, 1), + "max_age_seconds": _READINESS_SCHEDULER_STALE_SECONDS, + "market_open": market_open, + "reason": "" if ok else "scheduler tick stale > 90s", + }) + else: + checks.append({ + "name": "scheduler_tick", "ok": True, + "status": "not_running", "last_timestamp": last_tick, + }) + + last_data = _metric_gauge_value("last_data_success_timestamp") + if engine_running and expect_data: + trading_days = ( + None if last_data is None + else _trading_days_between(last_data, now) + ) + ok = ( + last_data is not None + and trading_days is not None + and trading_days <= _READINESS_DATA_MAX_TRADING_DAYS + ) + checks.append({ + "name": "market_data", + "ok": ok, + "last_timestamp": last_data, + "age_trading_days": trading_days, + "max_age_trading_days": _READINESS_DATA_MAX_TRADING_DAYS, + "reason": "" if ok else ( + "no successful market-data fetch recorded" + if last_data is None + else "market data older than 2 trading days" + ), + }) + else: + checks.append({ + "name": "market_data", "ok": True, + "status": ( + "market_closed" if engine_running else "engine_not_running" + ), + "last_timestamp": last_data, + }) + + ready = all(check.get("ok", False) for check in checks) + last_seen = { + "last_engine_cycle": last_cycle, + "last_scheduler_tick": last_tick, + "last_data_success": last_data, + "engine_running": engine_running, + "scheduler_running": scheduler_running, + } + return ready, checks, last_seen + + @router.get("/health") async def health(): + """Liveness probe. + + Deliberately does not fail when the exchange is closed: the Docker + healthcheck polls this endpoint. ``/api/readiness`` is the dead-man + switch that judges engine/scheduler/data heartbeats. + """ + with _run_lock: + runs_completed = len(_run_store) + runs_active = sum( + 1 for s in _run_status.values() if s.get("status") == "running" + ) + last_seen = { + "last_engine_cycle": _metric_gauge_value("last_engine_cycle_timestamp"), + "last_scheduler_tick": _metric_gauge_value("last_scheduler_tick_timestamp"), + "last_data_success": _metric_gauge_value("last_data_success_timestamp"), + } return { "status": "ok", "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), - "runs_completed": len(_run_store), - "runs_active": sum(1 for s in _run_status.values() if s.get("status") == "running"), + "runs_completed": runs_completed, + "runs_active": runs_active, + **last_seen, } +@router.get("/readiness") +async def readiness(): + """Dead-man switch: 503 when a running component's heartbeat is stale.""" + from fastapi.responses import JSONResponse + + ready, checks, last_seen = _readiness_checks() + payload = { + "status": "ready" if ready else "degraded", + "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), + "checks": checks, + **last_seen, + } + return JSONResponse(status_code=200 if ready else 503, content=payload) + + # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # WebSocket — real-time pipeline status # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.websocket("/ws") async def websocket_endpoint(ws: WebSocket): - # Capture the loop here: this is the one place guaranteed to be running on - # it before events start flowing. See _on_bus_event. - _remember_loop() - await ws.accept() - _ws_clients.add(ws) + # BaseHTTPMiddleware never sees WebSocket scopes, so the HTTP token guard + # does not cover this stream (which carries order.filled and risk events). + # + # The token travels only in the `bearer.` subprotocol: browsers + # cannot set handshake headers, and a `?token=` query string was written + # verbatim to the uvicorn access log (and every proxy log on the path). + # The legacy query fallback was removed -- a breaking change documented in + # the security report; tokens must be RFC 7230 token characters. + offered = list((getattr(ws, "scope", None) or {}).get("subprotocols") or []) + bearer = next((p for p in offered if p.startswith("bearer.")), "") + effective_token = bearer[len("bearer."):] if bearer else "" + + expected = os.environ.get("QUANT_API_TOKEN", "") + if expected: + if not effective_token or not secrets.compare_digest( + effective_token.encode("utf-8"), expected.encode("utf-8"), + ): + await ws.close(code=1008) + return + else: + # With no token configured the HTTP guard limits trading/OMS/risk + # routes to loopback; the event stream carries the same information + # and must not be open to remote clients either. + host = ws.client.host if ws.client else "" + # A DNS-rebound page connects from 127.0.0.1 but presents its own + # Host/Origin; the HTTP guard rejects that, and the event stream must + # apply the same rule (it carries order/risk/portfolio events). + from quant_platform.app import ( + _host_is_allowed, + _host_is_loopback, + _scope_host, + ) + + host_header = _scope_host(ws.scope) + host_ok = _host_is_loopback(host_header) + if not host_ok and os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "").strip(): + host_ok = _host_is_allowed(host_header) + if host not in _LOOPBACK_HOSTS or not host_ok: + await ws.close(code=1008) + return + global _ws_pending + # Reserve the slot before the first await: checking the set and adding + # after `accept()` let concurrent handshakes all pass the 100-client cap + # (99 -> 119 observed). + if len(_ws_clients) + _ws_pending >= _WS_MAX_CLIENTS: + await ws.close(code=1013) + return + _ws_pending += 1 + try: + # Capture the loop here: this is the one place guaranteed to be + # running on it before events start flowing. See _on_bus_event. + _remember_loop() + if bearer: + await ws.accept(subprotocol=bearer) + else: + await ws.accept() + client = _WSClient(ws) + client.task = asyncio.create_task(_ws_sender_loop(client)) + _ws_clients.add(client) + finally: + _ws_pending -= 1 try: while True: await ws.receive_text() # keep alive except WebSocketDisconnect: pass finally: - _ws_clients.discard(ws) + client.closed = True + _ws_clients.discard(client) + task = client.task + if task is not None and not task.done(): + task.cancel() + try: + await task + except (asyncio.CancelledError, Exception): + pass # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -251,7 +1079,8 @@ async def websocket_endpoint(ws: WebSocket): @router.get("/config", response_model=ConfigInfo) async def get_config(): - config = load_config(None) + # YAML read: never on the event loop. + config = await run_in_threadpool(load_config, None) return ConfigInfo( default_config={ "n_stocks": config.universe.n_stocks, @@ -276,39 +1105,70 @@ async def get_config(): # Run pipeline (async, non-blocking) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- -@router.post("/run", response_model=RunStatus) +@router.post("/run", response_model=RunStatusWithPhase) async def run_pipeline(req: RunRequest): """Start a full pipeline run in a background thread. Returns immediately with run_id. Poll /run/{run_id}/status for progress. + The response carries `phase="queued"` until a worker actually picks the + run up, then `"executing"`; `status` stays "running" throughout so the + existing UI contract is unchanged. A third concurrent run is rejected + with 429 (the pipeline pool has two workers). """ + if not _run_slots.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + 429, + "Two pipeline runs are already queued/running; try again later", + headers={"Retry-After": "5"}, + ) + run_id = uuid.uuid4().hex[:12] - _run_status[run_id] = { - "status": "running", - "progress": 0, - "stage": "data", - "started_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), - "completed_at": None, - "error": None, - } + try: + with _run_lock: + _run_status[run_id] = { + "status": "running", + "phase": "queued", + "progress": 0, + "stage": "data", + "started_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), + "completed_at": None, + "error": None, + } + _run_slot_holders.add(run_id) - # Offload to thread pool — does NOT block the event loop - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _execute_pipeline, run_id, req) + # Offload to the pipeline-only pool — does NOT block the event loop. + loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + future = loop.run_in_executor( + _get_pipeline_executor(), _execute_pipeline, run_id, req, + ) + with _run_lock: + _run_futures[run_id] = future + future.add_done_callback( + lambda done, rid=run_id: _on_run_future_done(rid, done) + ) + except BaseException: + with _run_lock: + _run_status.pop(run_id, None) + _run_futures.pop(run_id, None) + _release_run_slot(run_id) + raise - return RunStatus( + snapshot = _run_status_snapshot(run_id) or {} + return RunStatusWithPhase( run_id=run_id, - status=_run_status[run_id]["status"], - progress=_run_status[run_id]["progress"], - stage=_run_status[run_id]["stage"], - started_at=_run_status[run_id]["started_at"], - completed_at=_run_status[run_id].get("completed_at"), - error=_run_status[run_id].get("error"), + status=snapshot.get("status", "running"), + phase=snapshot.get("phase", "queued"), + progress=snapshot.get("progress", 0), + stage=snapshot.get("stage", "data"), + started_at=snapshot.get("started_at") or datetime.now().isoformat(), + completed_at=snapshot.get("completed_at"), + error=snapshot.get("error"), ) def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): """Run the full quant pipeline (called from thread pool).""" + _set_run_fields(run_id, phase="executing") try: config = _get_config_with_overrides({ "universe.n_stocks": req.n_stocks, @@ -322,24 +1182,45 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): # Stage 1: Data _update_status(run_id, 10, "data") - prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data( - config, use_tushare=req.use_tushare, use_baostock=req.use_baostock) + from quant_platform.utils.metrics import pipeline_stage + + with pipeline_stage("data"): + prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data( + config, use_tushare=req.use_tushare, use_baostock=req.use_baostock) + + # Compute the quality report while the price panel exists, and keep + # the small summary with the run. The run record does not retain the + # panel itself, so `/api/data/quality?run_id=...` used to return 422 + # for every completed run. + try: + from quant_platform.data.quality import DataQualityMonitor + dq = DataQualityMonitor() + dq.check_prices(prices) + dq.check_returns(returns) + data_quality_report = dq.get_report() + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning("Data quality check failed for run %s: %s", run_id, exc) + data_quality_report = {"error": str(exc)} # Stage 2: Factors _update_status(run_id, 30, "factors") - processed_factors, ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( - prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config) + with pipeline_stage("factors"): + processed_factors, ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( + prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config) # Stage 3: Alpha _update_status(run_id, 50, "alpha") - signal = _generate_signal(config, processed_factors, returns) + with pipeline_stage("alpha"): + signal = _generate_signal(config, processed_factors, returns) # Stage 4-5: Backtest _update_status(run_id, 70, "backtest") - bt_results = _run_backtest( - config, signal, prices, returns, benchmark, - sector_map, fin_unstacked, - ) + with pipeline_stage("backtest"): + bt_results = _run_backtest( + config, signal, prices, returns, benchmark, + sector_map, fin_unstacked, + gates=_execution_gates(metadata), + ) # Stage 6: Build response _update_status(run_id, 90, "report") @@ -354,12 +1235,17 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): weights_history=weights_history, processed_factors=processed_factors, signal=signal, + asset_returns=returns, ) # Risk from quant_platform.risk.stress import run_all_stress_tests from quant_platform.risk.var import var_summary - risk = var_summary(strategy_returns) + risk = var_summary( + strategy_returns, + confidence=config.risk.var.confidence, + horizon=config.risk.var.horizon, + ) stress_df = run_all_stress_tests(strategy_returns) stress_tests = [ StressTestItem( @@ -401,12 +1287,22 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): if sector_map_meta is not None else "" ) - # Estimate P&L from price changes over holding period + # Latest daily move as a P&L proxy (the run record + # does not persist per-position entry prices). pnl = None if str(ticker) in prices.columns: p = prices[str(ticker)] if len(p) > 1: - pnl = float((p.iloc[-1] / p.iloc[-2] - 1) * 100) + last = float(p.iloc[-1]) + prev = float(p.iloc[-2]) + # A suspension leaves NaN in the panel; NaN is + # not JSON-compliant and made the entire + # /result endpoint return 500. + if ( + np.isfinite(last) and np.isfinite(prev) + and prev > 0 + ): + pnl = float((last / prev - 1) * 100) top_holdings.append(HoldingItem( ticker=str(ticker), weight=round(float(w), 5), @@ -432,13 +1328,27 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): # Factor IC factor_items = [] for name, ic_sum in (ic_results or {}).items(): - factor_items.append(FactorICItem( - name=name, - mean_ic=ic_sum.get("mean_ic", 0) or 0, - std_ic=ic_sum.get("std_ic", 0) or 0, - icir=ic_sum.get("icir", 0) or 0, - ic_positive_ratio=ic_sum.get("ic_positive_ratio", 0) or 0, - )) + try: + stats = { + "mean_ic": float(ic_sum.get("mean_ic")), + "std_ic": float(ic_sum.get("std_ic")), + "icir": float(ic_sum.get("icir")), + "ic_positive_ratio": float(ic_sum.get("ic_positive_ratio")), + } + except (TypeError, ValueError): + stats = {} + if not stats or not all(np.isfinite(v) for v in stats.values()): + # Factors with too few evaluable cross-sections carry NaN + # statistics. Including them made the whole run record + # unserialisable (GET /result and /factors returned 500); + # omitting them is honest -- there is no measured IC. + logger.warning( + "Skipping factor %s from the run record: IC statistics " + "are not finite (n_obs=%s)", + name, ic_sum.get("n_obs"), + ) + continue + factor_items.append(FactorICItem(name=name, **stats)) factor_items.sort(key=lambda x: abs(x.icir), reverse=True) # Store plain dicts, not the Pydantic models. @@ -449,7 +1359,7 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): # factor list in the HTML report. Storing models made each of those an # `AttributeError: 'ChartData' object has no attribute 'get'`, so the # endpoints returned 500 whenever a run had actually succeeded. - _run_store[run_id] = { + record = { "performance": PerformanceMetrics( total_return=summary.get("total_return", 0), annual_return=summary.get("annual_return", 0), @@ -469,59 +1379,98 @@ def _execute_pipeline(run_id: str, req: RunRequest): n_rebalances=summary.get("n_rebalances", 0), optimizer=summary.get("optimizer", ""), initial_capital=summary.get("initial_capital", 0), + n_optimizer_fallbacks=summary.get("n_optimizer_fallbacks", 0), + optimizer_fallback_rate=summary.get("optimizer_fallback_rate", 0.0), + effective_optimizer=summary.get("effective_optimizer"), + n_skipped_rebalances=summary.get("n_skipped_rebalances", 0), ).model_dump(), "risk": RiskMetrics( historical_var=risk.get("historical_var", 0), parametric_var=risk.get("parametric_var", 0), historical_cvar=risk.get("historical_cvar", 0), ).model_dump(), + "data_quality": data_quality_report, "stress_tests": [s.model_dump() for s in stress_tests], "factors": [f.model_dump() for f in factor_items], "exposure": exposure_info.model_dump(), "chart_data": chart_data.model_dump(), } + # Starlette's JSON encoder rejects NaN/Inf; a completed run holding + # one made GET /result and /factors return 500 forever. Fail the run + # at creation instead of storing an unservable record. + try: + json.dumps(record, allow_nan=False) + except ValueError as exc: + raise ValueError( + "Run produced non-JSON-compliant numbers (NaN/Inf); " + "marking the run failed instead of storing it." + ) from exc + with _run_lock: + _run_store[run_id] = record + _update_status(run_id, 100, "done") - except Exception: - _run_status[run_id].update( + except Exception as exc: + # Keep the full traceback in the server log; return only the exception + # type/message (with the run id for correlation). The status endpoint + # previously exposed absolute paths and source lines to any caller. + full_traceback = traceback.format_exc() + snapshot = _set_run_fields( + run_id, status="failed", - error=str(traceback.format_exc()), + phase="failed", + error=f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"[:500], completed_at=datetime.now().isoformat(), ) - logger.error("Pipeline %s failed: %s", run_id, traceback.format_exc()) + logger.error("Pipeline %s failed: %s", run_id, full_traceback) + # Failures were never broadcast, so the frontend's WS failure branch + # was dead and the run only surfaced through the next poll. + if snapshot is not None: + _submit_broadcast(_broadcast_status(run_id, snapshot), _main_loop) finally: - _cleanup_old_runs() + # The slot is released even when the failure path itself raises; the + # done callback would otherwise be the only release path. + try: + _cleanup_old_runs() + finally: + _release_run_slot(run_id) def _update_status(run_id: str, progress: int, stage: str): - _run_status[run_id].update(progress=progress, stage=stage) + fields: dict[str, Any] = {"progress": progress, "stage": stage} if stage == "done": - _run_status[run_id].update(status="completed", completed_at=datetime.now().isoformat()) - # Broadcast to WebSocket clients (non-blocking from thread) - try: - loop = asyncio.get_event_loop() - if loop.is_running(): - asyncio.run_coroutine_threadsafe( - _broadcast_status(run_id, _run_status[run_id]), loop - ) - except RuntimeError: - pass # No event loop running, skip broadcast + fields.update( + status="completed", phase="completed", + completed_at=datetime.now().isoformat(), + ) + snapshot = _set_run_fields(run_id, **fields) + if snapshot is None: + logger.warning("Status update for unknown run %s ignored", run_id) + return + # Broadcast to WebSocket clients (non-blocking from the worker thread). + # `asyncio.get_event_loop()` raises on Python 3.12 in a thread with no + # loop, so progress events were silently dropped; use the loop captured + # by the WebSocket endpoint instead. + loop = _main_loop + if loop is not None and loop.is_running(): + _submit_broadcast(_broadcast_status(run_id, snapshot), loop) -@router.get("/run/{run_id}/status", response_model=RunStatus) +@router.get("/run/{run_id}/status", response_model=RunStatusWithPhase) async def get_run_status(run_id: str): - """Poll pipeline run status.""" - if run_id not in _run_status: + """Poll pipeline run status (including queued-vs-executing phase).""" + s = _run_status_snapshot(run_id) + if s is None: raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Run not found") - s = _run_status[run_id] - return RunStatus( + return RunStatusWithPhase( run_id=run_id, - status=s["status"], - progress=s["progress"], - stage=s["stage"], - started_at=s["started_at"], + status=s.get("status", "running"), + phase=s.get("phase", "executing"), + progress=s.get("progress", 0), + stage=s.get("stage", "data"), + started_at=s.get("started_at") or datetime.now().isoformat(), completed_at=s.get("completed_at"), error=s.get("error"), ) @@ -530,9 +1479,10 @@ async def get_run_status(run_id: str): @router.get("/run/{run_id}/result", response_model=RunResult) async def get_run_result(run_id: str): """Get completed run results.""" - if run_id not in _run_store: + with _run_lock: + data = _run_store.get(run_id) + if data is None: raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Result not found") - data = _run_store[run_id] return RunResult( run_id=run_id, performance=data.get("performance"), @@ -627,7 +1577,9 @@ def _compute_turnover(weights_history: dict) -> list[dict]: if change > 0.001: n_trades += 1 items.append({ - "date": str(sorted_dates[i]), + # Date-only, matching the demo payload and the chart axis; + # `str(Timestamp)` included a useless "00:00:00" suffix. + "date": str(pd.Timestamp(sorted_dates[i]).date()), "turnover": round(total_change / 2, 4), # One-way turnover "n_trades": n_trades, }) @@ -637,10 +1589,17 @@ def _compute_turnover(weights_history: dict) -> list[dict]: def _compute_factor_scatter( processed_factors: dict, signal: pd.DataFrame, - returns: pd.Series, + returns: pd.DataFrame, top_n: int = 6, ) -> list[dict]: - """Compute factor vs forward return scatter data for top factors.""" + """Compute factor vs forward return scatter data for top factors. + + `returns` must be the asset-level forward-return panel (t -> t+1), the + same convention the factor evaluator uses. It previously received the + portfolio-return Series; `returns.shift(-1)` on that Series is also a + second shift, i.e. a one-day look-ahead when the panel is already + forward-aligned. + """ from scipy import stats # Get IC ranking from factors @@ -648,7 +1607,7 @@ def _compute_factor_scatter( for name, factor_df in processed_factors.items(): if hasattr(factor_df, 'values'): # Compute rank IC with next-period returns - fwd_ret = returns.shift(-1) + fwd_ret = returns common_dates = factor_df.index.intersection(fwd_ret.dropna().index) if len(common_dates) > 50: ics = [] @@ -676,7 +1635,7 @@ def _compute_factor_scatter( result = [] for name, ic_info in top_factors: factor_df = processed_factors[name] - fwd_ret = returns.shift(-1) + fwd_ret = returns common_dates = factor_df.index.intersection(fwd_ret.dropna().index) # Sample points for scatter (max 500 points) @@ -713,9 +1672,14 @@ def _compute_factor_scatter( def _compute_attribution( processed_factors: dict, weights_history: dict, - returns: pd.Series, + returns: pd.DataFrame, ) -> list[dict]: - """Compute P&L attribution by factor contribution.""" + """Compute P&L attribution by factor contribution. + + `returns` is the asset-level forward-return panel (t -> t+1). The + portfolio held at `prev_date` earns that row, so attribution uses + `prev_date`, not the execution date and not a reindexed Series. + """ from scipy import stats if len(weights_history) < 2: @@ -734,14 +1698,14 @@ def _compute_attribution( prev_date = sorted_dates[i - 1] w = weights_history[date] # Factor-weighted return - if date in returns.index and hasattr(w, 'index'): + if prev_date in returns.index and hasattr(w, 'index'): common = w.index.intersection(factor_df.columns if hasattr(factor_df, 'columns') else factor_df.index) if len(common) > 0: # Factor exposure weighted by portfolio weights if hasattr(factor_df, 'loc') and prev_date in factor_df.index: f_vals = factor_df.loc[prev_date].reindex(common).fillna(0) w_vals = w.reindex(common).fillna(0) - r_vals = returns.reindex(common).fillna(0) if hasattr(returns, 'reindex') else pd.Series(0, index=common) + r_vals = returns.loc[prev_date].reindex(common).fillna(0) # IC contribution ic, _ = stats.spearmanr(f_vals.values, r_vals.values) if not np.isnan(ic): @@ -759,7 +1723,7 @@ def _compute_attribution( for name, contrib in sorted(factor_contribs.items(), key=lambda x: abs(x[1]), reverse=True)[:10]: # Compute average IC try: - fwd_ret = returns.shift(-1) + fwd_ret = returns # `factor_df` here was left over from the loop above, so it held # whichever factor that loop happened to end on -- the IC reported # for each name was computed from some other factor's dates. Line @@ -793,14 +1757,50 @@ def _compute_attribution( return result +#: Hard bound on any single chart series in a run result. A 20-year daily run +#: is ~5,000 points; beyond this the frontend cannot show more pixels anyway +#: and the JSON payload grows without bound. The most recent point is always +#: retained so the chart still ends at the present. +_MAX_CHART_POINTS = 2000 + + +def _downsample_series(values: list, max_points: int = _MAX_CHART_POINTS) -> list: + if len(values) <= max_points: + return values + step = int(np.ceil(len(values) / max_points)) + sampled = values[::step] + if sampled[-1] is not values[-1]: + sampled.append(values[-1]) + return sampled + + +def _downsample_dates(dates: list[str], values: list, + max_points: int = _MAX_CHART_POINTS) -> tuple[list[str], list]: + if len(values) <= max_points or len(dates) != len(values): + return dates, values + step = int(np.ceil(len(values) / max_points)) + sampled_dates = dates[::step] + sampled_values = values[::step] + if sampled_values[-1] is not values[-1]: + sampled_dates.append(dates[-1]) + sampled_values.append(values[-1]) + return sampled_dates, sampled_values + + def _build_chart_data( strategy_returns: pd.Series, benchmark_returns: pd.Series | None = None, weights_history: dict | None = None, processed_factors: dict | None = None, signal: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + asset_returns: pd.DataFrame | None = None, ) -> ChartData: - """Build chart-ready data from returns series.""" + """Build chart-ready data from returns series. + + `asset_returns` is the date x asset forward-return panel. Scatter and + attribution need cross-sectional returns; passing the portfolio-return + Series made both silently produce empty lists on every real run. + """ sr = strategy_returns.dropna() equity = (1 + sr).cumprod() dates = [str(d.date()) for d in equity.index] @@ -810,8 +1810,10 @@ def _build_chart_data( br = benchmark_returns.reindex(sr.index).dropna() bench_equity = (1 + br).cumprod().tolist() - running_max = equity.expanding(min_periods=1).max() - drawdown = (equity / running_max - 1).tolist() + # Drawdown from the initial wealth of 1.0; see reporting.performance. + wealth = np.concatenate([[1.0], equity.to_numpy()]) + running_max = np.maximum.accumulate(wealth) + drawdown = (wealth / running_max - 1)[1:].tolist() rolling_sharpe = None rolling_sharpe_dates = None @@ -825,14 +1827,25 @@ def _build_chart_data( monthly = None if len(sr) >= 21: - monthly_ret = sr.resample("M").apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) + # `"M"` was removed in pandas 3; MonthEnd works on 2.x and 3.x. + monthly_ret = sr.resample(pd.offsets.MonthEnd()).apply(lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1) monthly_ret.index = monthly_ret.index.to_period("M") mdf = monthly_ret.groupby([monthly_ret.index.year, monthly_ret.index.month]).first().unstack() + # Fill in months with no observation so the array index matches the + # Jan-Dec axis the frontend and the HTML report draw. Without this a + # March-May run had its March value plotted under January. + mdf = mdf.reindex(columns=range(1, 13)) if not mdf.empty: monthly = { "years": [str(y) for y in mdf.index.tolist()], "months": list(range(1, 13)), - "data": mdf.values.tolist(), + # NaN is not JSON-compliant; Starlette rejects the response + # with a 500. A missing cell is null and the heatmap skips it. + "data": [ + [None if pd.isna(value) else round(float(value), 6) + for value in row] + for row in mdf.values.tolist() + ], } # Return distribution histogram @@ -877,25 +1890,44 @@ def _build_chart_data( # Factor scatter (top 6 factors by |ICIR|) factor_scatter = None - if processed_factors and signal is not None: + if processed_factors and signal is not None and asset_returns is not None: try: factor_scatter = _compute_factor_scatter( - processed_factors, signal, sr, top_n=6) + processed_factors, signal, asset_returns, top_n=6) except Exception: pass # P&L attribution attribution = None - if processed_factors and weights_history and len(weights_history) > 1: + if ( + processed_factors and weights_history and len(weights_history) > 1 + and asset_returns is not None + ): try: attribution = _compute_attribution( - processed_factors, weights_history, sr) + processed_factors, weights_history, asset_returns) except Exception: pass + # Bound every long series before it enters the run record. Drawdown + # periods, turnover, scatter and attribution are already capped above; + # the equity-aligned series were not, so a long run serialized one point + # per trading day forever. + equity_values = equity.tolist() + dates, equity_values = _downsample_dates(dates, equity_values) + drawdown = _downsample_series(drawdown) + if bench_equity is not None: + bench_equity = _downsample_series(bench_equity) + if excess_cumulative is not None: + excess_cumulative = _downsample_series(excess_cumulative) + if rolling_sharpe is not None and rolling_sharpe_dates is not None: + rolling_sharpe_dates, rolling_sharpe = _downsample_dates( + rolling_sharpe_dates, rolling_sharpe, + ) + return ChartData( dates=dates, - equity=equity.tolist(), + equity=equity_values, benchmark=bench_equity, drawdown=drawdown, rolling_sharpe=rolling_sharpe, @@ -934,12 +1966,12 @@ async def get_demo(): equity.append(round(price, 4)) d += dt.timedelta(days=1) - # Drawdown + # Drawdown (fraction, matching /api/run; the UI multiplies by 100) dd = [] peak = 0 for v in equity: peak = max(peak, v) - dd.append(round((v / peak - 1) * 100, 2)) + dd.append(round(v / peak - 1, 6)) # Rolling sharpe (last 252 entries) rs_dates = dates[252:] @@ -1072,11 +2104,14 @@ async def get_demo(): "years": ["2021", "2022", "2023", "2024", "2025"], "months": list(range(1, 13)), "data": [ - [3.2, -1.5, 2.8, 0.9, -2.1, 1.4, 3.5, -0.8, 2.1, 1.7, -1.2, 2.9], - [-4.1, 1.2, -0.8, 2.3, -1.7, 3.1, -2.5, 0.6, 1.9, -3.2, 2.4, 0.5], - [1.8, -0.4, 2.5, 1.1, -0.9, 2.7, 0.3, -1.6, 3.4, 0.8, -2.1, 1.5], - [2.1, 1.5, -1.2, 3.8, 0.4, -0.7, 2.9, 1.3, -0.5, 4.1, 0.2, -1.8], - [1.2, -0.6, 2.4, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None], + [value / 100 if value is not None else None for value in row] + for row in ( + [3.2, -1.5, 2.8, 0.9, -2.1, 1.4, 3.5, -0.8, 2.1, 1.7, -1.2, 2.9], + [-4.1, 1.2, -0.8, 2.3, -1.7, 3.1, -2.5, 0.6, 1.9, -3.2, 2.4, 0.5], + [1.8, -0.4, 2.5, 1.1, -0.9, 2.7, 0.3, -1.6, 3.4, 0.8, -2.1, 1.5], + [2.1, 1.5, -1.2, 3.8, 0.4, -0.7, 2.9, 1.3, -0.5, 4.1, 0.2, -1.8], + [1.2, -0.6, 2.4, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None, None], + ) ], }, "return_distribution": distribution, @@ -1157,13 +2192,16 @@ async def get_demo(): @router.get("/factors") async def get_latest_factors(): """Return factor IC rankings from the most recent completed run.""" - if not _run_store: - return {"factors": []} + with _run_lock: + if not _run_store: + return {"factors": []} + status = {rid: dict(s) for rid, s in _run_status.items()} + store = dict(_run_store) latest_rid = max( - _run_store.keys(), - key=lambda rid: _run_status.get(rid, {}).get("completed_at", ""), + store, + key=lambda rid: status.get(rid, {}).get("completed_at", ""), ) - return {"factors": _run_store[latest_rid].get("factors", [])} + return {"factors": store[latest_rid].get("factors", [])} # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -1173,13 +2211,18 @@ async def get_latest_factors(): @router.get("/runs") async def list_runs(): """List recent runs with status.""" + with _run_lock: + snapshot = [(rid, dict(s)) for rid, s in _run_status.items()] runs = [] - for rid, s in sorted(_run_status.items(), key=lambda x: x[1].get("started_at", ""), reverse=True): + for rid, s in sorted( + snapshot, key=lambda x: x[1].get("started_at", "") or "", reverse=True, + ): runs.append({ "run_id": rid, - "status": s["status"], - "progress": s["progress"], - "stage": s["stage"], + "status": s.get("status", "running"), + "phase": s.get("phase", "executing"), + "progress": s.get("progress", 0), + "stage": s.get("stage", "data"), "started_at": s.get("started_at"), "completed_at": s.get("completed_at"), }) @@ -1187,14 +2230,13 @@ async def list_runs(): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- -# Compare (runs in thread pool) +# Compare (runs in the analytics pool) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.post("/compare", response_model=CompareResult) async def compare_strategies(req: CompareRequest): """Compare multiple optimizers side by side.""" - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _run_compare, req) + return await _run_analytics(_run_compare, req) def _run_compare(req: CompareRequest) -> CompareResult: @@ -1211,6 +2253,7 @@ def _run_compare(req: CompareRequest) -> CompareResult: bt_results = _run_backtest( config, signal, prices, returns, benchmark, sector_map, fin_unstacked, optimizer_override=opt, + gates=_execution_gates(metadata), ) s = bt_results["summary"] table.append({ @@ -1238,19 +2281,38 @@ def _run_compare(req: CompareRequest) -> CompareResult: @router.post("/sweep", response_model=SweepResult) async def sweep_parameters(req: SweepRequest): """Grid search over parameters.""" - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _run_sweep, req) + # Holdout discipline: a sweep selects/tunes parameters, so its data window + # must not touch the final-evaluation holdout. Refuse before any analytics + # work is scheduled. An empty holdout keeps the old behaviour unchanged. + try: + config = load_config(None) + holdout_violation = sweep_guard_message(config) + except ValueError as exc: + # ConfigValidationError subclasses ValueError: a bad holdout window in + # the YAML must reach the client as a readable 422, not a 500. + raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=str(exc)) from exc + if holdout_violation is not None: + raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=holdout_violation) + return await _run_analytics(_run_sweep, req) def _run_sweep(req: SweepRequest) -> SweepResult: import itertools + from quant_platform.research.validation import validate_sweep_trials + config = load_config(None) table = [] + # Successful configurations keep their daily returns in memory so the + # grid's multiple-testing bias can be measured (DSR). ``row_config`` is + # parallel to ``table`` and maps a row back to its trial id. + trial_returns: dict[str, np.ndarray] = {} + row_config: list[str | None] = [] for opt, freq, n_stocks in itertools.product( req.optimizers, req.frequencies, req.n_stocks_list ): + config_id = f"{opt}/{freq}/{n_stocks}" try: config.universe.n_stocks = n_stocks prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data(config, use_tushare=False) @@ -1261,8 +2323,20 @@ def _run_sweep(req: SweepRequest) -> SweepResult: config, signal, prices, returns, benchmark, sector_map, fin_unstacked, optimizer_override=opt, frequency_override=freq, + gates=_execution_gates(metadata), ) s = bt_results["summary"] + daily_returns = bt_results.get("daily_returns") + if daily_returns is not None: + try: + trial_returns[config_id] = np.asarray(daily_returns, dtype=float) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + # A malformed series is missing validation input, not a + # failed backtest; keep the row and skip its correction. + logger.warning( + "Sweep %s: daily returns not usable for DSR: %s", + config_id, exc, + ) table.append({ "Optimizer": opt, "Frequency": freq, @@ -1273,34 +2347,137 @@ def _run_sweep(req: SweepRequest) -> SweepResult: "Sortino": round(s.get("sortino_ratio", 0), 2), "Win Rate %": round(s.get("win_rate", 0) * 100, 1), }) + row_config.append(config_id if config_id in trial_returns else None) except Exception as e: table.append({ "Optimizer": opt, "Frequency": freq, "N Stocks": n_stocks, "Sharpe": "ERR", "Error": str(e)[:60], }) + row_config.append(None) + + validation = validate_sweep_trials(trial_returns) if trial_returns else None + if validation is not None: + for idx, config_id in enumerate(row_config): + if config_id is None: + continue + info = validation["trials"][config_id] + table[idx]["DSR p"] = info["dsr_p"] + table[idx]["BH Significant"] = info["bh_significant"] best = None - valid = [r for r in table if isinstance(r.get("Sharpe"), (int, float))] + best_idx = None + valid = [ + (i, r) for i, r in enumerate(table) + if isinstance(r.get("Sharpe"), (int, float)) + ] if valid: - best = max(valid, key=lambda r: r["Sharpe"]) + best_idx, best_row = max(valid, key=lambda pair: pair[1]["Sharpe"]) best = { - "optimizer": best["Optimizer"], - "frequency": best["Frequency"], - "n_stocks": best["N Stocks"], - "sharpe": best["Sharpe"], + "optimizer": best_row["Optimizer"], + "frequency": best_row["Frequency"], + "n_stocks": best_row["N Stocks"], + "sharpe": best_row["Sharpe"], } - return SweepResult(table=table, best_params=best) + # best_params above keeps its original meaning: the highest (rounded) + # Sharpe row. `best_dsr` only reports whether that same row survives the + # correction -- the selection itself is not silently changed. + best_dsr = None + selection_note = None + if best is not None: + best_config = row_config[best_idx] + if validation is not None and best_config in validation["trials"]: + info = validation["trials"][best_config] + best_dsr = { + "config": best_config, + "observed": info["observed_sharpe"], + "expected_max": info["expected_max_sharpe"], + "deflated_p": info["dsr_p"], + "raw_p": info["raw_p"], + "significant": bool( + info["dsr_significant"] and info["bh_significant"] + ), + "dsr_significant": info["dsr_significant"], + "bh_significant": info["bh_significant"], + } + if not best_dsr["significant"]: + selection_note = ( + f"Best configuration {best_config} (table Sharpe " + f"{best['sharpe']}) does not survive multiple-testing " + f"correction: raw_p={info['raw_p']:.4f}, DSR p=" + f"{info['dsr_p']:.4f}, BH-significant=" + f"{info['bh_significant']}. The selected " + "parameters are not statistically validated." + ) + else: + selection_note = ( + "Best configuration could not be validated: no daily return " + "series was available for multiple-testing correction." + ) + + return SweepResult( + table=table, + best_params=best, + num_trials=validation["num_trials"] if validation is not None else None, + best_dsr=best_dsr, + selection_note=selection_note, + ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Live Portfolio — Holdings Import & Tracking # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- -# Global OMS instance (initialized lazily) +# Global OMS instance (initialized lazily, guarded by `_singleton_lock`) _oms_instance = None _holdings_data: dict[str, Any] = {} +# Bound concurrent network-bound portfolio fetches. `/portfolio/live` is a +# sync handler, so Starlette would otherwise run as many of them as AnyIO's +# default thread limiter allows (40) -- each one issuing up to 100 sequential +# baostock queries against a module-global login session. +_live_portfolio_slots = threading.BoundedSemaphore(1) +_LIVE_PORTFOLIO_DEADLINE = 30.0 + + +def _parse_holdings_rows(rows: list) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Validate/normalize imported holdings (pandas work, off the loop).""" + df = pd.DataFrame(rows) + if "code" not in df.columns or "hold_vol" not in df.columns: + # Try to infer columns + if len(df.columns) >= 2: + df.columns = ["code", "hold_vol"] + else: + raise HTTPException(400, "CSV must have 'code' and 'hold_vol' columns") + + # Clean data (vectorized, from reference project) + df = df.dropna(subset=["code", "hold_vol"]) + df = df.drop_duplicates(subset="code", keep="first") + df["hold_vol"] = pd.to_numeric(df["hold_vol"], errors="coerce") + df = df[df["hold_vol"] > 0] + df["code"] = df["code"].astype(str).str.strip().str.zfill(6) + # `r"\\d{6}"` is a 6-character pattern -- escaped backslash, then six + # literal `d`s -- so it matched nothing and only `\dddddd` would have + # passed. Every import came back {"status": "ok", "n_stocks": 0}. + before = len(df) + df = df[df["code"].str.fullmatch(r"\d{6}")] + if df.empty and before > 0: + # Not a silent success: the file had rows, none of them usable. + raise HTTPException( + 400, + f"None of the {before} rows had a 6-digit code. Note that codes " + "are zero-padded -- a numeric column read from a spreadsheet " + "may have lost its leading zeros.", + ) + + return { + "holdings": df.to_dict(orient="records"), + "n_stocks": len(df), + "total_shares": int(df["hold_vol"].sum()), + "imported_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), + "sample": df.head(5).to_dict(orient="records"), + } + @router.post("/portfolio/import") async def import_holdings(file_content: dict): @@ -1310,48 +2487,32 @@ async def import_holdings(file_content: dict): rows = file_content.get("data", []) if not rows: raise HTTPException(400, "No data provided") - - df = pd.DataFrame(rows) - if "code" not in df.columns or "hold_vol" not in df.columns: - # Try to infer columns - if len(df.columns) >= 2: - df.columns = ["code", "hold_vol"] - else: - raise HTTPException(400, "CSV must have 'code' and 'hold_vol' columns") - - # Clean data (vectorized, from reference project) - df = df.dropna(subset=["code", "hold_vol"]) - df = df.drop_duplicates(subset="code", keep="first") - df["hold_vol"] = pd.to_numeric(df["hold_vol"], errors="coerce") - df = df[df["hold_vol"] > 0] - df["code"] = df["code"].astype(str).str.strip().str.zfill(6) - # `r"\\d{6}"` is a 6-character pattern -- escaped backslash, then six - # literal `d`s -- so it matched nothing and only `\dddddd` would have - # passed. Every import came back {"status": "ok", "n_stocks": 0}. - before = len(df) - df = df[df["code"].str.fullmatch(r"\d{6}")] - if df.empty and before > 0: - # Not a silent success: the file had rows, none of them usable. + if len(rows) > 10_000: raise HTTPException( - 400, - f"None of the {before} rows had a 6-digit code. Note that codes " - "are zero-padded -- a numeric column read from a spreadsheet " - "may have lost its leading zeros.", + 413, "Portfolio import is limited to 10,000 rows", ) + # Disjoint per-row keys become distinct pandas columns: 10k rows with + # 40k keys built an 8M-cell frame (and far worse at the body cap). + allowed_keys = {"code", "hold_vol"} + for row in rows: + if not isinstance(row, dict) or not set(row) <= allowed_keys: + raise HTTPException( + 400, "Each row must contain only 'code' and 'hold_vol'", + ) - _holdings_data = { - "holdings": df.to_dict(orient="records"), - "n_stocks": len(df), - "total_shares": int(df["hold_vol"].sum()), - "imported_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), - } + # Pandas parsing/cleaning is CPU-bound; keep it off the event loop. + parsed = await run_in_threadpool(_parse_holdings_rows, rows) + sample = parsed.pop("sample") + _holdings_data = parsed return { "status": "ok", - "n_stocks": len(df), - "total_shares": int(df["hold_vol"].sum()), - "sample": df.head(5).to_dict(orient="records"), + "n_stocks": parsed["n_stocks"], + "total_shares": parsed["total_shares"], + "sample": sample, } + except HTTPException: + raise except Exception as e: raise HTTPException(400, str(e)) from e @@ -1365,11 +2526,33 @@ async def get_holdings(): @router.get("/portfolio/live") -async def get_live_portfolio(): - """Get live portfolio snapshot with current prices from baostock.""" +def get_live_portfolio(): + """Get live portfolio snapshot with current prices from baostock. + + Only one refresh runs at a time (`_live_portfolio_slots`); a second + concurrent request gets 503 + Retry-After instead of occupying another + worker thread for up to 100 sequential upstream queries. The sequential + loop itself is capped by `_LIVE_PORTFOLIO_DEADLINE`: past the deadline the + partial book is returned with `partial=true`. + """ if not _holdings_data or not _holdings_data.get("holdings"): - return {"error": "No holdings imported. Import CSV first."} + # An HTTP error, not a 200 with an `error` key: the frontend treated + # the latter as a valid empty portfolio and reported success. + raise HTTPException(409, "No holdings imported. Import CSV first.") + + if not _live_portfolio_slots.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + status_code=503, + detail="A live portfolio refresh is already in progress; retry shortly", + headers={"Retry-After": "10"}, + ) + try: + return _fetch_live_portfolio() + finally: + _live_portfolio_slots.release() + +def _fetch_live_portfolio() -> dict: holdings = pd.DataFrame(_holdings_data["holdings"]) codes = holdings["code"].tolist() @@ -1385,30 +2568,55 @@ async def get_live_portfolio(): prices = {} preclose_prices = {} + price_dates = {} today = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - + # Daily bars for *today* are not available until after the close + # (baostock returned nothing intraday, so this endpoint answered 503 + # even though the single-stock endpoint served yesterday's close). + # Ask for a short window and keep the latest bar, reporting its date. + lookback = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=7)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + + deadline = time.monotonic() + _LIVE_PORTFOLIO_DEADLINE + deadline_hit = False for code in codes[:100]: # Limit to 100 stocks for speed + if time.monotonic() >= deadline: + deadline_hit = True + logger.warning( + "Live portfolio price fetch hit the %.0fs deadline after " + "%d/%d codes; returning partial data", + _LIVE_PORTFOLIO_DEADLINE, len(prices), min(len(codes), 100), + ) + break bs_code = _to_bs_code(code) try: rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( bs_code, "date,close,preclose", - start_date=today, end_date=today, + start_date=lookback, end_date=today, frequency="d", adjustflag="3", ) - if rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): - row = rs.get_row_data() - if len(row) >= 3: - close = float(row[1]) if row[1] else 0 - preclose = float(row[2]) if row[2] else 0 - if close > 0: - prices[code] = close - preclose_prices[code] = preclose + last_row = None + while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): + last_row = rs.get_row_data() + if last_row and len(last_row) >= 3: + close = float(last_row[1]) if last_row[1] else 0 + preclose = float(last_row[2]) if last_row[2] else 0 + if close > 0: + prices[code] = close + preclose_prices[code] = preclose + price_dates[code] = last_row[0] except Exception: continue bs.logout() + if not prices: + raise HTTPException( + 503, + "No live prices available from baostock; try again during " + "the trading session.", + ) + # Merge holdings with prices (vectorized) holdings["close"] = holdings["code"].map(prices) holdings["preclose"] = holdings["code"].map(preclose_prices) @@ -1426,6 +2634,8 @@ async def get_live_portfolio(): # Top holdings by market value top = valid.nlargest(20, "market_value") + top = top.assign(price_basis="raw") + data_date = max(price_dates.values()) if price_dates else None return { "total_value": round(float(total_value), 2), @@ -1434,39 +2644,121 @@ async def get_live_portfolio(): "n_positions": len(valid), "n_with_price": len(prices), "n_no_price": len(codes) - len(prices), + "data_date": data_date, + "stale": data_date != today, + "partial": deadline_hit, + # These marks come from baostock adjustflag="3" (unadjusted), i.e. + # the traded CNY price -- never an hfq/qfq level (D15/D41). + "price_basis": "raw", + "price_source": "baostock:adjustflag=3", "holdings": top[["code", "hold_vol", "close", "preclose", - "market_value", "pnl", "pnl_pct"]].to_dict(orient="records"), + "market_value", "pnl", "pnl_pct", + "price_basis"]].to_dict(orient="records"), "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), } + except HTTPException: + raise except Exception as e: - return {"error": str(e), "holdings_count": len(codes)} + # 200 + {"error": ...} looked like a successful empty portfolio; raw + # exception text leaked internals. Log with context, answer generically. + logger.exception("Live portfolio fetch failed") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "live_portfolio_unavailable", + "Live portfolio unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Order Management System # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# One lock for every lazy singleton below. The getters are reachable both from +# the event loop (async routes) and from AnyIO worker threads (sync routes); +# an unguarded `if x is None: x = construct()` could build two OMS books or +# two providers, the second overwriting and leaking the first. +_singleton_lock = threading.Lock() + + def _get_oms() -> OrderManager: """Get or create the global OMS instance.""" global _oms_instance - if _oms_instance is None: - from quant_platform.execution.oms import OrderManager - _oms_instance = OrderManager(initial_cash=10_000_000.0) - return _oms_instance + instance = _oms_instance + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _oms_instance is None: + from quant_platform.execution.oms import OrderManager + _oms_instance = OrderManager(initial_cash=10_000_000.0) + instance = _oms_instance + return instance + + +_rt_market_instance = None + + +def _get_rt_market(): + """Shared RealTimeMarket. + + Each request used to construct a fresh instance, so its 10-second quote + cache was always cold and every call triggered a full market scrape. + """ + global _rt_market_instance + instance = _rt_market_instance + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _rt_market_instance is None: + from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket + _rt_market_instance = RealTimeMarket() + instance = _rt_market_instance + return instance @router.post("/oms/order") async def create_order(order_req: dict): """Create a new order.""" + # Validate before the broad `except Exception`: a missing ticker used to + # create and submit an order with ticker "", which could then be filled + # and turn into a position with no instrument. + ticker = str(order_req.get("ticker", "") or "").strip() + if not ticker: + raise HTTPException(422, "ticker is required") + # Canonical identity: `600519` and `600519.SH` must be one position. + ticker = normalize_symbol(ticker) + if len(ticker) > 32: + raise HTTPException(422, "ticker is too long") + try: + quantity = int(order_req.get("quantity", 100)) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity must be an integer") from exc + if quantity <= 0: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity must be positive") + if quantity > 100_000_000: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity exceeds the 100,000,000-share cap") + side = order_req.get("side", "buy") + if side not in ("buy", "sell"): + raise HTTPException(422, "side must be 'buy' or 'sell'") + limit_price = order_req.get("limit_price") + if limit_price is not None: + try: + limit_price = float(limit_price) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "limit_price must be a number") from exc + # NaN/Infinity made the OMS store NaN slippage, after which the JSON + # blotter and TCA endpoints returned 500 until process restart. + if not np.isfinite(limit_price) or limit_price <= 0: + raise HTTPException(422, "limit_price must be a finite positive number") + + strategy = str(order_req.get("strategy", "") or "") + if len(strategy) > 64: + raise HTTPException(422, "strategy is limited to 64 characters") try: oms = _get_oms() order = oms.create_order( - ticker=order_req.get("ticker", ""), - side=order_req.get("side", "buy"), - quantity=int(order_req.get("quantity", 100)), - order_type=order_req.get("type", "market"), - limit_price=order_req.get("limit_price"), - strategy=order_req.get("strategy", ""), + ticker=ticker, + side=side, + quantity=quantity, + order_type=order_req.get("order_type") or order_req.get("type", "market"), + limit_price=limit_price, + strategy=strategy, ) # Auto-submit for market orders if order_req.get("auto_submit", True): @@ -1486,28 +2778,49 @@ async def create_order(order_req: dict): @router.post("/oms/fill") async def fill_order(fill_req: dict): """Process a fill for an order.""" + try: + price = float(fill_req.get("price", 0) or 0) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "price must be a number") from exc + if price <= 0: + # A missing price used to default to 0; the UI papered over it with a + # random 100-150 quote. Refuse rather than invent a fill price. + raise HTTPException(422, "price is required for a fill") + try: oms = _get_oms() order = oms.fill_order( order_id=fill_req.get("order_id", ""), - price=float(fill_req.get("price", 0)), + price=price, quantity=fill_req.get("quantity"), + # Default raw; a caller that declares qfq/hfq is refused by the + # OMS instead of poisoning cash and P&L (D15). + price_basis=fill_req.get("price_basis", "raw"), ) return { "order_id": order.order_id, "status": order.status.value, "filled_qty": order.filled_quantity, "avg_price": round(order.avg_fill_price, 2), + "price_basis": oms.price_basis, } except Exception as e: raise HTTPException(400, str(e)) from e +@router.post("/oms/new-trading-day") +async def oms_new_trading_day(): + """Roll the OMS book: release T+1 locks for a new trading day.""" + oms = _get_oms() + oms.new_trading_day() + return {"status": "ok", "n_positions": len(oms.positions)} + + @router.get("/oms/blotter") -async def get_blotter(): - """Get order blotter (all filled orders).""" +async def get_blotter(limit: int = Query(200, ge=1, le=2000)): + """Get order blotter (all orders, newest first, bounded).""" oms = _get_oms() - return {"orders": oms.get_order_blotter()} + return {"orders": oms.get_order_blotter(limit=limit)} @router.get("/oms/positions") @@ -1522,6 +2835,9 @@ async def get_positions(): "n_positions": snapshot.n_positions, "total_unrealized_pnl": snapshot.total_unrealized_pnl, "total_realized_pnl": snapshot.total_realized_pnl, + # Fills and marks are accepted as raw CNY prices only (adjusted + # qfq/hfq levels are rejected at the OMS boundary, D15). + "price_basis": oms.price_basis, "positions": [ { "ticker": p.ticker, @@ -1533,6 +2849,7 @@ async def get_positions(): "unrealized_pnl_pct": round(p.unrealized_pnl_pct, 2), "realized_pnl": round(p.realized_pnl, 2), "weight": round(p.weight, 4), + "price_basis": oms.price_basis, } for p in snapshot.positions ], @@ -1551,7 +2868,7 @@ async def get_trade_cost_analysis(): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.get("/market/baostock/health") -async def baostock_health(): +def baostock_health(): """Check if baostock is accessible.""" try: import baostock as bs @@ -1560,11 +2877,19 @@ async def baostock_health(): bs.logout() return {"status": "ok" if ok else "error", "source": "baostock"} except Exception as e: - return {"status": "error", "error": str(e)} + # Short reason only: exception text can carry paths and library + # internals. The detail stays in the server log. + logger.exception("Baostock health check failed") + return { + "status": "error", + "source": "baostock", + "error": type(e).__name__, + "code": "baostock_unavailable", + } @router.get("/market/baostock/stock/{code}") -async def get_stock_realtime(code: str): +def get_stock_realtime(code: str): """Get real-time price for a single stock from baostock.""" try: import baostock as bs @@ -1619,11 +2944,17 @@ async def get_stock_realtime(code: str): "amount": float(row[7]) if row[7] else None, "pctChg": float(row[8]) if row[8] else None, "source": "baostock", + # adjustflag="3" is the unadjusted (traded CNY) series. + "price_basis": "raw", } except HTTPException: raise except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(500, str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Baostock stock quote failed for %s", code) + raise _internal_error( + 500, "baostock_quote_failed", + "Market data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -1631,54 +2962,62 @@ async def get_stock_realtime(code: str): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.post("/walkforward") -async def run_walkforward(req: dict): - """Run walk-forward validation on the latest pipeline run.""" - run_id = req.get("run_id") - if not run_id or run_id not in _run_store: +async def run_walkforward(req: WalkForwardRequest): + """Run a real walk-forward validation on the research context. + + The validator recomputes the alpha signal inside each fold from + train-only data (``factors=processed_factors``), so the numbers are + genuinely out-of-sample. Nothing is sliced from a stored run's equity + curve: ``run_id`` is accepted for compatibility with the dashboard but is + only checked when supplied. + """ + run_id = req.run_id + if run_id is not None and run_id not in _run_store: raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") - result = _run_store[run_id] - if "chart_data" not in result: - raise HTTPException(400, "Run has no chart data") + train_period = req.train_period + test_period = req.test_period + folds = req.folds + mode = req.mode - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _run_walkforward, result, req) - - -def _run_walkforward(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: - """Report that walk-forward cannot be computed from a stored run. - - This used to slice the in-sample equity curve, label the slices "OOS" and - manufacture a Sharpe from them -- the comment said as much ("Generate - synthetic walk-forward results based on the run data"). No signal was - recomputed and no model refit, so the numbers were in-sample performance - wearing an out-of-sample label, on the dashboard panel titled - "Walk-Forward 验证". That is the most user-visible overstatement the audit - found. - - A real walk-forward needs the per-period returns and the factor panel, to - recompute the signal inside each fold from train-only data. A stored run - keeps neither -- only `chart_data`, holding dates and an equity curve. - Rather than fabricate, this says so. The response shape is preserved with - empty collections so the panel renders nothing rather than breaking: - WalkForward.vue already guards on `fold_details?.length`. - """ - train_period = params.get("train_period", 504) - test_period = params.get("test_period", 126) + start, end = _research_window(req.start_date, req.end_date) + context = await _load_context_or_503(start, end) + params = { + "train_period": train_period, + "test_period": test_period, + "mode": mode, + "folds": folds, + } + cached = _derived_get(context, "walkforward", params) + if cached is not None: + return cached + return await _run_analytics(_run_walkforward_cached, context, params) + + +def _run_walkforward_cached(context: ResearchContext, params: dict) -> dict: + """Single-flight wrapper: re-check the derived cache inside the worker.""" + key = derived_key(context, "walkforward", params) + with _key_lock_for(key): + hit = derived_cache_get(key) + if hit is not None: + out = dict(hit) + out["cached"] = True + return out + result = _run_walkforward(context, params) + return _derived_store(context, "walkforward", params, result) + + +def _walkforward_unavailable(context: ResearchContext, params: dict, reason: str) -> dict: + """Shape-preserving unavailable response (WalkForward.vue guards on it).""" return { "available": False, - "reason": ( - "Walk-forward cannot be computed from a stored run: it needs the " - "per-period returns and the factor panel in order to recompute the " - "signal inside each fold from train-only data, and a run keeps only " - "its equity curve. Use `python main.py walkforward`, which runs the " - "real validator on data it loads itself." - ), + "reason": reason, + **context.provenance(), "n_folds": 0, "mode": params.get("mode", "rolling"), - "train_period": train_period, - "test_period": test_period, + "train_period": params.get("train_period", 504), + "test_period": params.get("test_period", 126), "fold_details": [], "oos_equity": [], "oos_dates": [], @@ -1692,6 +3031,190 @@ def _run_walkforward(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: "total_folds": 0, "mean_return_pct": 0, }, + "aggregate": {}, + "signal_recomputed": False, + } + + +def _run_walkforward(context: ResearchContext, params: dict) -> dict: + """Run ``WalkForwardValidator`` on the research context. + + Each fold refits the alpha combination on train-only data (the validator + does this when ``factors`` is supplied), so the OOS metrics are not + in-sample performance wearing a different label. + """ + from quant_platform.backtest.cost_model import CostModel + from quant_platform.backtest.walkforward import WalkForwardValidator + from quant_platform.portfolio.constraints import PortfolioConstraints + + train_period = int(params["train_period"]) + test_period = int(params["test_period"]) + mode = params.get("mode", "rolling") + folds = params.get("folds") + + n_sessions = int(len(context.prices.index)) + required = train_period + test_period + if n_sessions < required: + return _walkforward_unavailable( + context, params, + f"Walk-forward needs at least {required} sessions " + f"(train {train_period} + test {test_period}); the research " + f"context has {n_sessions}. Shorten the periods or extend the " + "date range.", + ) + if context.signal is None or context.signal.dropna(how="all").empty: + return _walkforward_unavailable( + context, params, + "the research context produced an empty alpha signal; walk-forward " + "has nothing to validate", + ) + + config = context.config + validator = WalkForwardValidator( + train_period=train_period, + test_period=test_period, + step_size=test_period, + mode=mode, + n_folds=folds, + ) + cost_model = CostModel( + commission=config.costs.commission, + stamp_tax=config.costs.stamp_tax, + slippage=config.costs.slippage, + slippage_model=config.costs.slippage_model, + ) + constraints = PortfolioConstraints( + long_only=config.portfolio.constraints.long_only, + max_weight=config.portfolio.constraints.max_weight, + max_sector_exposure=config.portfolio.constraints.max_sector_exposure, + max_turnover=config.portfolio.constraints.max_turnover, + lot_size=config.portfolio.constraints.lot_size, + risk_aversion=config.portfolio.risk_aversion, + ) + engine_kwargs = { + "initial_capital": config.backtest.initial_capital, + "rebalance_frequency": config.backtest.rebalance_frequency, + "benchmark": config.backtest.benchmark, + } + + try: + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + # Fold metrics on constant/empty return slices legitimately warn + # (mean of an empty slice); the validator handles the NaN and the + # response reports it as null. + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + results = validator.run( + signal=context.signal, + prices=context.prices, + returns=context.returns, + benchmark_returns=context.benchmark, + sector_map=context.sector_map, + financials=context.fin_unstacked, + engine_kwargs=engine_kwargs, + factors=context.processed_factors, + alpha_kwargs={ + "method": config.alpha.method, + "lookback": config.alpha.lookback, + "min_icir": config.alpha.min_icir, + }, + cost_model=cost_model, + constraints=constraints, + optimizer=config.portfolio.optimizer, + covariance_method=config.portfolio.covariance.method, + covariance_lookback=config.portfolio.covariance.lookback, + covariance_ewma_half_life=config.portfolio.covariance.ewma_half_life, + execution_gates=_execution_gates(context.metadata), + ) + except ValueError: + # The validator raises "All walk-forward folds failed" when every + # fold backtest raises. Say that plainly; the traceback is in the log. + logger.exception("Walk-forward: every fold failed") + return _walkforward_unavailable( + context, params, + "no walk-forward fold completed successfully; see the server log " + "for the failing fold's error", + ) + + oos_returns = results.get("oos_returns") + oos_dates: list[str] = [] + oos_equity: list[Any] = [] + if oos_returns is not None and len(oos_returns) > 0: + equity = (1.0 + oos_returns.astype(float)).cumprod() + oos_equity = [_json_float(v) for v in equity.to_list()] + oos_dates = [ + str(idx.date()) if hasattr(idx, "date") else str(idx) + for idx in equity.index + ] + + fold_details = [] + for metric in results.get("fold_metrics", []): + train_start = metric.get("train_start", "") + train_end = metric.get("train_end", "") + test_start = metric.get("test_start", "") + test_end = metric.get("test_end", "") + fold_details.append({ + "fold": int(metric.get("fold", len(fold_details))), + "train": f"{train_start}..{train_end}", + "test": f"{test_start}..{test_end}", + "oos_days": int(metric.get("oos_days", 0) or 0), + "sharpe": _json_float(metric.get("sharpe_ratio")), + "return_pct": ( + round(float(metric.get("total_return")) * 100.0, 6) + if _json_float(metric.get("total_return")) is not None else None + ), + "max_drawdown_pct": ( + round(float(metric.get("max_drawdown")) * 100.0, 6) + if _json_float(metric.get("max_drawdown")) is not None else None + ), + "sortino": _json_float(metric.get("sortino_ratio")), + }) + + stability_raw = results.get("stability") or {} + stability = { + "mean_sharpe": _json_float(stability_raw.get("mean_sharpe")), + "std_sharpe": _json_float(stability_raw.get("std_sharpe")), + "min_sharpe": _json_float(stability_raw.get("min_sharpe")), + "max_sharpe": _json_float(stability_raw.get("max_sharpe")), + "sharpe_consistency": _json_float( + stability_raw.get("sharpe_consistency"), + ), + "positive_folds": int(stability_raw.get("positive_folds", 0) or 0), + "total_folds": int(stability_raw.get("total_folds", 0) or 0), + "mean_return_pct": ( + round(float(stability_raw.get("mean_return")) * 100.0, 6) + if _json_float(stability_raw.get("mean_return")) is not None else None + ), + } + + aggregate_raw = results.get("aggregate_metrics") or {} + aggregate = { + key: _json_float(aggregate_raw.get(key)) + for key in ( + "sharpe_ratio", "annual_return", "annual_volatility", + "total_return", "max_drawdown", "sortino_ratio", + "calmar_ratio", "win_rate", + ) + if key in aggregate_raw + } + + return { + "available": True, + "reason": "", + **context.provenance(), + # `n_folds` is the number of folds that produced a result (what the + # panel reports as completed); the validator's planned count is kept + # separately. + "n_folds": len(fold_details), + "planned_folds": int(results.get("n_folds", len(fold_details))), + "mode": results.get("mode", mode), + "train_period": int(results.get("train_period", train_period)), + "test_period": int(results.get("test_period", test_period)), + "fold_details": fold_details, + "oos_equity": oos_equity, + "oos_dates": oos_dates, + "stability": stability, + "aggregate": aggregate, + "signal_recomputed": bool(results.get("signal_recomputed", False)), } @@ -1707,8 +3230,18 @@ async def run_monte_carlo(req: dict): raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") result = _run_store[run_id] - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _run_monte_carlo, result, req) + + try: + n_sims = int(req.get("n_simulations", 1000)) + horizon = int(req.get("horizon_days", 252)) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "n_simulations/horizon_days must be integers") from exc + if not 1 <= n_sims <= 10_000 or not 1 <= horizon <= 2_520: + raise HTTPException( + 422, "n_simulations must be 1..10000 and horizon_days 1..2520", + ) + + return await _run_analytics(_run_monte_carlo, result, req) def _run_monte_carlo(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: @@ -1739,6 +3272,11 @@ def _run_monte_carlo(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: mc_result = simulator.bootstrap_simulation(daily_returns, block_size=21) # Convert numpy types for JSON serialization + terminal_values = np.asarray(mc_result.get("terminal_values", []), dtype=float) + if terminal_values.size > 2_000: + step = int(np.ceil(terminal_values.size / 2_000)) + terminal_values = terminal_values[::step] + return { "method": mc_result["method"], "n_simulations": mc_result["n_simulations"], @@ -1748,6 +3286,7 @@ def _run_monte_carlo(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: "max_drawdown": mc_result["max_drawdown"], "sharpe": mc_result.get("sharpe", {}), "fitted_distribution": mc_result.get("fitted_distribution"), + "terminal_values": terminal_values.tolist(), "paths": mc_result.get("paths", [])[:30], } @@ -1757,53 +3296,279 @@ def _run_monte_carlo(result: dict, params: dict) -> dict: # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.post("/risk/decompose") -async def decompose_risk(req: dict): - """Decompose portfolio returns into factor contributions.""" - run_id = req.get("run_id") - if not run_id or run_id not in _run_store: - raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") +async def decompose_risk(req: RiskDecomposeRequest): + """Decompose portfolio risk with the real Barra model. - result = _run_store[run_id] - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _decompose_risk, result) + Uses the same computation as ``POST /api/barra/decompose`` + (:func:`_barra_decomposition`) on the shared research context instead of + re-deriving a risk share from stored IC summaries. + """ + run_id = req.run_id + if run_id is not None and run_id not in _run_store: + raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") + half_life = req.half_life + date_value = req.date + if date_value: + try: + from datetime import date as _date + _date.fromisoformat(str(date_value)) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException( + 422, "date must be an ISO date (YYYY-MM-DD)", + ) from exc + shrinkage = req.shrinkage_target + + start, end = _research_window(req.start_date, req.end_date) + context = await _load_context_or_503(start, end) + + params = { + "weights": req.weights, + "date": date_value, + "half_life": half_life, + "shrinkage_target": shrinkage, + } + # Without explicit weights the book comes from OMS positions, which change + # between requests; caching that result by the research-context hash would + # serve a stale book for the TTL. Only explicit-weight results are cached. + if req.weights: + cached = _derived_get(context, "risk_decompose", params) + if cached is not None: + return cached + return await _run_analytics(_decompose_risk_cached, context, params) + return await _run_analytics(_decompose_risk, context, params) + + +def _decompose_risk_cached(context: ResearchContext, params: dict) -> dict: + key = derived_key(context, "risk_decompose", params) + with _key_lock_for(key): + hit = derived_cache_get(key) + if hit is not None: + out = dict(hit) + out["cached"] = True + return out + result = _decompose_risk(context, params) + return _derived_store(context, "risk_decompose", params, result) + + +def _risk_decomposition_unavailable( + context: ResearchContext, reason: str, +) -> dict: + return { + "available": False, + "reason": reason, + **context.provenance(), + "factors": [], + "total_risk_pct": None, + "factor_risk_pct": None, + "idiosyncratic_risk_pct": None, + "r_squared": None, + "risk_share": { + "convention": ( + "Euler variance shares: factor variance contribution / total " + "variance; the alpha row is the specific variance share" + ), + "total": None, + "sums_to_one": False, + }, + "weights_source": "", + } -def _decompose_risk(result: dict) -> dict: - """Risk decomposition cannot be computed from a stored run. - This used to invent one, and the shape of the invention gave it away: +def _barra_decomposition( + prices: pd.DataFrame, + returns: pd.DataFrame, + benchmark: Any, + financials: Any, + processed_factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], + *, + weights_requested: dict[str, float] | None, + date: str | None, + half_life: int, + shrinkage_target: str, + raw_prices: pd.DataFrame | None, +): + """Shared Barra fit/decompose used by both risk endpoints. + + Returns ``(model, decomposition, weights, weights_source)``. + """ + from quant_platform.risk.barra import BarraModel - total_risk = 15.2 # annualized vol %, hardcoded - risk_share = min(icir * 15, ...) # a factor's risk share = ICIR x 15 - beta = 0.5 + icir * 0.3 # beta is a function of ICIR - t_stat = icir * sqrt(252) # so is the t-statistic + weights, weights_source = _resolve_weights_with_source( + weights_requested, prices, raw_prices, + ) + model = BarraModel( + half_life=half_life, + shrinkage_target=shrinkage_target, + ) + factor_exposures = model.build_exposures( + prices, + returns, + benchmark=benchmark, + financials=financials, + platform_factors=processed_factors, + ) + model.fit(factor_exposures, returns) + decomposition = model.decompose_risk( + weights, factor_exposures, date=date, + ) + return model, decomposition, weights, weights_source - None of those are measurements. A factor's risk contribution is its - exposure times the factor covariance, and the t-statistic comes from - regressing realized factor returns -- neither of which a stored run keeps. - The run holds per-factor IC summaries (`name`, `mean_ic`, `std_ic`, - `icir`, `ic_positive_ratio`) and a portfolio equity curve. - `risk/factor_risk.py` and `risk/barra.py` compute the real thing given the - factor panel and returns. +def _decompose_risk(context: ResearchContext, params: dict) -> dict: + """Real Barra risk decomposition on the research context. - The empty list is deliberate: the front-end panel renders nothing rather - than a decomposition that looks computed and is not. Before this, the - endpoint also raised `AttributeError` on every call, because the stored - factor entries were Pydantic objects being read with `.get()`. + Risk shares are Euler variance contributions: each factor's annualized + variance contribution divided by the portfolio's total annualized + variance (``total_risk ** 2``). The idiosyncratic ("alpha") row is the + specific variance share, so factor shares plus the alpha row sum to 1. """ + raw_prices = None + attrs = getattr(context.metadata, "attrs", None) + if isinstance(attrs, dict): + raw_block = attrs.get("raw_prices") + if isinstance(raw_block, dict): + raw_prices = raw_block.get("close") + + requested_date = params.get("date") + if requested_date: + try: + stamp = pd.Timestamp(requested_date) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return _risk_decomposition_unavailable( + context, f"date {requested_date!r} is not a valid date", + ) + if stamp not in context.prices.index: + return _risk_decomposition_unavailable( + context, + f"date {requested_date} is not in the research context " + f"({context.prices.index[0]}..{context.prices.index[-1]})", + ) + + try: + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + # The cross-sectional regressions emit constant-input warnings on + # thin dates; they are handled by the model, not endpoint errors. + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + model, decomposition, _weights, weights_source = _barra_decomposition( + context.prices, + context.returns, + context.benchmark, + context.financials, + context.processed_factors, + weights_requested=params.get("weights"), + date=params.get("date"), + half_life=int(params.get("half_life", 252)), + shrinkage_target=str(params.get("shrinkage_target", "identity")), + raw_prices=raw_prices, + ) + except HTTPException: + raise + except Exception: + logger.exception("Risk decomposition failed") + return _risk_decomposition_unavailable( + context, + "the Barra cross-sectional fit failed on this research context; " + "see the server log", + ) + + total_risk = _json_float(decomposition.total_risk, 0.0) or 0.0 + total_variance = total_risk * total_risk + if total_variance <= 0: + return _risk_decomposition_unavailable( + context, + "the resolved portfolio has zero measured variance against the " + "factor model (an empty or degenerate book)", + ) + + factor_returns = None + try: + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + factor_returns = model.get_factor_return_series() + except Exception: # statistics are optional; shares are not + logger.exception("Barra factor-return series unavailable") + + factors: list[dict] = [] + share_sum = 0.0 + non_finite_factors: list[str] = [] + for name, contribution in decomposition.factor_contributions.items(): + contribution_value = _json_float(contribution) + if contribution_value is None: + # A factor whose variance contribution is undefined cannot be + # given a share; record it rather than inventing a number. + non_finite_factors.append(str(name)) + contribution_value = 0.0 + share = contribution_value / total_variance + share_sum += share + annual_bps = None + t_stat = None + if factor_returns is not None and name in factor_returns.columns: + series = factor_returns[name].dropna() + if len(series) >= 2: + mean = float(series.mean()) + std = float(series.std()) + annual_bps = _json_float(mean * 252.0 * 1e4) + if std > 0: + t_stat = _json_float( + mean / std * math.sqrt(len(series)), + ) + if annual_bps is not None: + annual_bps = round(annual_bps, 4) + if t_stat is not None: + t_stat = round(t_stat, 4) + factors.append({ + "factor": str(name), + "risk_share": share, + "risk_share_pct": share * 100.0, + "variance_contribution": contribution_value, + "annual_return_bps": annual_bps, + "beta": _json_float(decomposition.factor_exposures.get(name)), + "t_stat": t_stat, + "contribution": "factor", + }) + + specific_risk = _json_float(decomposition.specific_risk, 0.0) or 0.0 + idio_share = (specific_risk * specific_risk) / total_variance + # Floating-point residual goes to the idiosyncratic bucket so the shares + # add to exactly 1 for the panel's "sums to one" contract. + idio_share += 1.0 - (share_sum + idio_share) + share_sum += idio_share + factors.append({ + "factor": "alpha", + "risk_share": idio_share, + "risk_share_pct": idio_share * 100.0, + "variance_contribution": specific_risk * specific_risk, + "annual_return_bps": None, + "beta": None, + "t_stat": None, + "contribution": "alpha", + }) + return { - "available": False, - "reason": ( - "Risk decomposition needs factor exposures and realized factor " - "returns; a stored run keeps only per-factor IC summaries. " - "POST /api/barra/decompose computes it from the factor panel." + "available": True, + "reason": "", + **context.provenance(), + "factors": factors, + "total_risk_pct": total_risk * 100.0, + "factor_risk_pct": (_json_float(decomposition.factor_risk, 0.0) or 0.0) * 100.0, + "idiosyncratic_risk_pct": specific_risk * 100.0, + "r_squared": _json_float(decomposition.r_squared, 0.0), + "risk_share": { + "convention": ( + "Euler variance shares: factor variance contribution / total " + "variance; the alpha row is the specific variance share" + ), + "total": share_sum, + "sums_to_one": abs(share_sum - 1.0) <= 1e-9, + }, + "factor_stat_method": ( + "annual_return_bps = mean daily cross-sectional factor return x " + "252 x 1e4; t_stat = mean/std x sqrt(n); beta = portfolio " + "exposure to the factor" ), - "factors": [], - "total_risk_pct": None, - "factor_risk_pct": None, - "idiosyncratic_risk_pct": None, - "r_squared": None, + "non_finite_contributions": non_finite_factors, + "weights_source": weights_source, } @@ -1811,61 +3576,343 @@ def _decompose_risk(result: dict) -> dict: # Factor Analysis (IC Decay + Correlation Matrix) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +#: Horizons reported by /api/analysis/ic-decay. ``factors.evaluation.ic_decay`` +#: computes every horizon from 1 to ``max_periods``; computing all twenty for +#: every factor would be twenty IC passes over the full panel, so the endpoint +#: evaluates ``rank_ic(period=h).mean()`` for the reported horizons only -- +#: exactly the quantity ``ic_decay`` returns at those horizons. +IC_DECAY_HORIZONS = (1, 5, 10, 20) + + @router.get("/analysis/ic-decay") -async def get_ic_decay(): - """IC decay cannot be computed from a stored run. +async def get_ic_decay( + start_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO start date override"), + end_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO end date override"), +): + """IC decay at horizons 1/5/10/20 days on the research context.""" + start, end = _research_window(start_date, end_date) + context = await _load_context_or_503(start, end) + + cached = _derived_get(context, "ic_decay", None) + if cached is not None: + return cached + return await _run_analytics(_compute_ic_decay_cached, context) + + +def _compute_ic_decay_cached(context: ResearchContext) -> dict: + key = derived_key(context, "ic_decay", None) + with _key_lock_for(key): + hit = derived_cache_get(key) + if hit is not None: + out = dict(hit) + out["cached"] = True + return out + return _derived_store( + context, "ic_decay", None, _compute_ic_decay(context), + ) + + +def _analysis_window( + context: ResearchContext, +) -> tuple[dict[str, pd.DataFrame], int, str]: + """Trailing factor panels used by the factor-statistics endpoints. + + Only the factor panels are truncated; the returns panel stays full so the + last window dates keep their forward-return horizons. Panels with no + value at all in the window (e.g. 12-month momentum on a short sample) are + omitted -- they cannot contribute a measurement. ``window_sessions`` is + the longest tail actually available and ``panel_start`` the earliest + start, i.e. "up to the last 252 sessions per panel". + """ + factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {} + lengths: list[int] = [] + starts: list[Any] = [] + for name, panel in context.processed_factors.items(): + if panel is None or panel.empty: + continue + tail = panel.tail(ANALYSIS_WINDOW_SESSIONS) + if not tail.notna().to_numpy().any(): + continue + factors[name] = tail + lengths.append(len(tail.index)) + starts.append(tail.index[0]) + window_sessions = max(lengths) if lengths else 0 + panel_start = str(min(starts))[:10] if starts else "" + return factors, window_sessions, panel_start - This used to manufacture it: - decay = np.exp(-lag * 0.15) * base_ic - ics.append(round(decay + noise, 5)) +def _count_factor_assets(factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame]) -> int: + widths = [len(panel.columns) for panel in factors.values()] + return max(widths) if widths else 0 - a synthetic exponential curve scaled by each factor's *mean* IC, with the - reported half-life derived from the same 0.15 constant. It was shaped like - a measurement and contained none -- the shape could not have come out any - other way. - Real IC decay needs the factor panel and forward returns at several - horizons. `factors/evaluation.py` computes it correctly given those, and - `python main.py run` produces them; a stored run keeps only per-factor - summary statistics. +def _analysis_returns( + context: ResearchContext, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], +) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Returns sliced to the analysis window. - The empty list is deliberate: `ICDecay.vue` renders nothing for an empty - factor list, so a panel that says nothing beats one that says something - false. + ``rank_ic`` rebuilds the forward-return target over whatever panel it is + given, so handing it the full five-year returns frame per factor per + horizon dominated the endpoint's cost. Slicing to the window start keeps + every horizon's target identical (the target for a date only needs the + following ``h`` returns, all inside the slice) while bounding the work. """ + if not factors: + return context.returns.iloc[0:0] + starts = [panel.index[0] for panel in factors.values()] + return context.returns.loc[min(starts):] + + +def _compute_ic_decay(context: ResearchContext) -> dict: + from quant_platform.factors.evaluation import rank_ic + + factors, window_sessions, panel_start = _analysis_window(context) + returns_window = _analysis_returns(context, factors) + factors_out: list[dict] = [] + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + # Constant cross-sections and short windows legitimately raise + # numerical warnings inside the IC computation; they are not endpoint + # errors and must not flood the log (or pytest's warning capture) once + # per date per factor. + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + for name, panel in factors.items(): + if panel is None or panel.empty: + continue + points: list[dict] = [] + for horizon in IC_DECAY_HORIZONS: + ic_series = rank_ic(panel, returns_window, period=horizon) + if len(ic_series) == 0: + continue + mean_ic = _json_float(ic_series.mean()) + if mean_ic is None: + continue + points.append({ + "horizon": int(horizon), + "ic": mean_ic, + "n": int(ic_series.count()), + }) + if not points: + continue + factors_out.append({ + "factor": str(name), + # ICDecay.vue reads {factor, lags, ics}; `points` adds the + # per-horizon observation count. + "lags": [p["horizon"] for p in points], + "ics": [p["ic"] for p in points], + "points": points, + }) + + if not factors_out: + from quant_platform.factors.evaluation import min_assets_for_ic + + breadth = min_assets_for_ic(_count_factor_assets(factors) or context.n_assets) + return { + "available": False, + "reason": ( + "no processed factor produced an evaluable cross-section at " + f"the requested horizons; IC needs at least {breadth} assets " + "on a date" + ), + **context.provenance(), + "horizons": list(IC_DECAY_HORIZONS), + "window_sessions": window_sessions, + "panel_start": panel_start, + "factors": [], + } + return { - "available": False, - "reason": ( - "IC decay needs the factor panel and forward returns at multiple " - "horizons; a stored run keeps only per-factor summary statistics. " - "Run `python main.py run` to compute it." + "available": True, + "reason": "", + **context.provenance(), + "horizons": list(IC_DECAY_HORIZONS), + "window_sessions": window_sessions, + "panel_start": panel_start, + "ic_definition": ( + "mean cross-sectional Rank IC of the processed factor against the " + "pipeline's forward returns at each horizon (identical to the " + "value factors.evaluation.ic_decay reports for that horizon), " + "over the trailing window" ), - "factors": [], + "factors": factors_out, } @router.get("/analysis/correlation") -async def get_factor_correlation(): - """Factor correlation cannot be computed from a stored run. +async def get_factor_correlation( + start_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO start date override"), + end_date: str | None = Query(None, description="ISO end date override"), +): + """Average cross-sectional factor correlation matrix on the factor panel.""" + start, end = _research_window(start_date, end_date) + context = await _load_context_or_503(start, end) + + cached = _derived_get(context, "factor_correlation", None) + if cached is not None: + return cached + return await _run_analytics(_compute_factor_correlation_cached, context) + + +def _compute_factor_correlation_cached(context: ResearchContext) -> dict: + key = derived_key(context, "factor_correlation", None) + with _key_lock_for(key): + hit = derived_cache_get(key) + if hit is not None: + out = dict(hit) + out["cached"] = True + return out + return _derived_store( + context, "factor_correlation", None, + _compute_factor_correlation(context), + ) - This used to build a random matrix, including a rule that made factors - whose names contain "momentum" correlate with each other by construction - (`0.3 + rng.random() * 0.4`) and likewise for "volatility". The values were - generated to look plausible; none of them came from the data. - `factors/evaluation.py` computes the real matrix from the factor panel. A - stored run keeps per-factor summary statistics, not the panel. +def _pairwise_factor_correlation( + factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], +) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Pairwise cross-sectional factor correlation. + + ``factors.evaluation.factor_correlation`` requires a date on which *every* + factor is present before it will correlate the cross-section; a short or + sparse panel (e.g. a 12-month momentum factor with no history yet) can + make every date incomplete and the matrix all-NaN. This fallback keeps + the same measurement -- per-date Pearson correlation of the processed + factor values, averaged over dates -- but pairs factors individually and + only counts a date for a pair when both have at least the IC breadth + minimum of common assets. Pairs with no such date stay NaN (reported as + null). """ + from quant_platform.factors.evaluation import min_assets_for_ic + + names = list(factors) + size = len(names) + sums = np.zeros((size, size), dtype=float) + counts = np.zeros((size, size), dtype=float) + + all_dates: set[Any] = set() + for panel in factors.values(): + all_dates.update(panel.index) + + for day in sorted(all_dates): + vectors: dict[str, pd.Series] = {} + for name in names: + panel = factors[name] + if day in panel.index: + vectors[name] = panel.loc[day].dropna() + if len(vectors) < 2: + continue + # Reindex to every factor so the pairwise breadth mask and the + # correlation matrix stay size x size even when some panel has no + # observation on this date (missing columns become all-NaN). + frame = pd.DataFrame(vectors).reindex(columns=names) + if frame.dropna(how="all").empty: + continue + present = frame.notna() + common = present.T.to_numpy(dtype=float) @ present.to_numpy(dtype=float) + threshold = min_assets_for_ic(len(frame)) + with np.errstate(invalid="ignore", divide="ignore"): + corr = ( + frame.corr() + .reindex(index=names, columns=names) + .to_numpy(dtype=float) + ) + mask = (common >= threshold) & np.isfinite(corr) + if not mask.any(): + continue + sums[mask] += corr[mask] + counts[mask] += 1.0 + + with np.errstate(invalid="ignore", divide="ignore"): + averaged = np.where(counts > 0, sums / counts, np.nan) + return pd.DataFrame(averaged, index=names, columns=names) + + +def _compute_factor_correlation(context: ResearchContext) -> dict: + from quant_platform.factors.evaluation import factor_correlation + + factors, window_sessions, panel_start = _analysis_window(context) + if not factors: + return { + "available": False, + "reason": "the research context has no processed factor panels", + **context.provenance(), + "window_sessions": window_sessions, + "panel_start": panel_start, + "names": [], + "matrix": [], + } + + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + # Pairwise correlations over sparse cross-sections emit constant-input + # warnings per date; they are expected and not endpoint errors. + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + corr = factor_correlation(factors) + off_diagonal = corr.to_numpy(dtype=float).copy() + np.fill_diagonal(off_diagonal, np.nan) + method = "factors.evaluation.factor_correlation" + if not np.isfinite(off_diagonal).any(): + # No date had every factor present at the breadth minimum. Fall + # back to the pairwise version so a sparse panel still yields + # measured correlations instead of an empty matrix. + corr = _pairwise_factor_correlation(factors) + method = ( + "pairwise cross-sectional factor correlation " + "(factor_correlation had no complete cross-section)" + ) + + names = [str(name) for name in corr.columns] + size = len(names) + if size == 0: + return { + "available": False, + "reason": ( + "the factor panels share no date with enough assets for a " + "cross-sectional correlation" + ), + **context.provenance(), + "window_sessions": window_sessions, + "panel_start": panel_start, + "names": [], + "matrix": [], + } + + matrix: list[list[float | None]] = [] + for i in range(size): + row: list[float | None] = [] + for j in range(size): + value = _json_float(corr.iat[i, j]) + if i == j: + value = 1.0 + elif value is not None: + value = float(np.clip(value, -1.0, 1.0)) + row.append(value) + matrix.append(row) + + # Make the matrix exactly symmetric and treat a missing pair as missing + # on both sides (the pair has no date where both factors are evaluable). + for i in range(size): + for j in range(i + 1, size): + left, right = matrix[i][j], matrix[j][i] + if left is None or right is None: + matrix[i][j] = matrix[j][i] = None + else: + value = (left + right) / 2.0 + matrix[i][j] = matrix[j][i] = value + return { - "available": False, - "reason": ( - "Factor correlation needs the factor panel; a stored run keeps only " - "per-factor summary statistics. Run `python main.py run` to compute " - "it." + "available": True, + "reason": "", + **context.provenance(), + "window_sessions": window_sessions, + "panel_start": panel_start, + "names": names, + "matrix": matrix, + "nan_policy": ( + "per-date cross-sectional Pearson correlations averaged across " + "dates on which both factors have at least the IC breadth minimum " + "of common assets; a pair with no such date is null on both " + "sides. The diagonal is 1.0 by construction." ), - "names": [], - "matrix": [], + "method": method, } @@ -1881,8 +3928,11 @@ async def detect_regime(req: dict): raise HTTPException(400, "No completed run found. Run pipeline first.") result = _run_store[run_id] - loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() - return await loop.run_in_executor(_executor, _detect_regime, result) + regime = await _run_analytics(_detect_regime, result) + if isinstance(regime, dict) and "error" in regime: + # 200 + {"error": ...} reads as a successful empty result to clients. + raise HTTPException(409, regime["error"]) + return regime def _detect_regime(result: dict) -> dict: @@ -1893,8 +3943,13 @@ def _detect_regime(result: dict) -> dict: equity = chart.get("equity", []) dates = chart.get("dates", []) - if len(equity) < 200: - return {"error": "Not enough data for regime detection"} + if len(equity) < 252: + return { + "error": ( + "Regime detection needs at least 252 daily observations " + f"(the volatility lookback); this run has {len(equity)}." + ) + } equity_arr = np.array(equity) returns = pd.Series(np.diff(equity_arr) / equity_arr[:-1]) @@ -1902,6 +3957,18 @@ def _detect_regime(result: dict) -> dict: detector = CompositeRegimeDetector() regime = detector.detect(returns, prices) + # A stored run keeps only the portfolio equity curve, not the asset + # return panel, so a correlation regime cannot be measured. The detector + # otherwise reports a default "normal_correlation" that looks measured. + regime["correlation"] = { + "regime": "unavailable", + "confidence": 0.0, + "available": False, + "reason": ( + "the stored run does not keep the asset return panel needed for " + "average pairwise correlation" + ), + } # Generate regime history (monthly snapshots) regime_history = [] @@ -1926,7 +3993,12 @@ def _detect_regime(result: dict) -> dict: # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.post("/screen", response_model=ScreenResponse) -async def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): +def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): + """Screen stocks using boolean factor rules (bounded compute pool).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_screen_stocks_impl, req) + + +def _screen_stocks_impl(req: ScreenRequest) -> ScreenResponse: """Screen stocks using boolean factor rules. Computes factors for the configured universe then applies user-defined @@ -1938,7 +4010,28 @@ async def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): ScreenRule, ) - config = load_config(req.config) + # A request-supplied path was passed straight to `open()`, so an + # unauthenticated caller could execute an arbitrary local YAML config + # (path traversal / config injection). Only files under the server's + # config directory are accepted. + config_path = req.config + if config_path: + from pathlib import Path + + config_root = (Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "config").resolve() + candidate = Path(config_path) + if not candidate.is_absolute(): + candidate = (config_root.parent / candidate).resolve() + else: + candidate = candidate.resolve() + if not candidate.is_relative_to(config_root) or not candidate.is_file(): + raise HTTPException( + 422, + "config must name a YAML file inside the server's config/ directory", + ) + config_path = str(candidate) + + config = load_config(config_path) n_stocks = getattr(req, 'n_stocks', None) if n_stocks is not None: @@ -1950,19 +4043,42 @@ async def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): config, use_baostock=use_baostock ) except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(status_code=503, detail=f"Data load failed: {e}") from e + logger.exception("Screen: data load failed") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "screen_data_unavailable", + "Data load failed; see server logs for details", + ) from e try: - processed_factors, ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( + _processed_factors, ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked, raw_factors = _compute_factors( prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config, + return_raw=True, ) except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=f"Factor computation failed: {e}") from e + logger.exception("Screen: factor computation failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "screen_factor_error", + "Factor computation failed; see server logs for details", + ) from e + + if not req.rules: + raise HTTPException(422, "at least one screen rule is required") + unknown = sorted({r.factor for r in req.rules} - set(raw_factors)) + if unknown: + raise HTTPException( + 422, + f"unknown factor(s): {unknown}; available: {sorted(raw_factors)}", + ) rules = [] for r in req.rules: rules.append(ScreenRule(factor=r.factor, operator=r.operator, value=r.value)) + # Screen raw economic values, not the standardized/neutralized panels: + # `pe_ratio < 30` means a PE of 30, while the processed panel is a + # cross-sectional z-score (~-3..3) that passes nearly every stock. + screen_panel = raw_factors + screener = FactorScreener({ "enabled": True, "rules": [{"factor": r.factor, "operator": r.operator, "value": r.value} @@ -1971,15 +4087,15 @@ async def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): "min_stocks": req.min_stocks, "max_stocks": req.max_stocks, }) - qualifiers = screener.screen(processed_factors, rules, date=req.date) + qualifiers = screener.screen(screen_panel, rules, date=req.date) - target_date = req.date or str(next(iter(processed_factors.values())).index[-1]) + target_date = req.date or str(next(iter(screen_panel.values())).index[-1]) results = [] for asset in qualifiers: factor_vals = {} for r in rules: - if r.factor in processed_factors: - df = processed_factors[r.factor] + if r.factor in screen_panel: + df = screen_panel[r.factor] try: val = float(df.loc[pd.Timestamp(target_date), asset]) factor_vals[r.factor] = round(val, 6) @@ -1991,7 +4107,7 @@ async def screen_stocks(req: ScreenRequest): date=target_date, logic=req.logic, num_rules=len(rules), - total_stocks=len(next(iter(processed_factors.values())).columns), + total_stocks=len(next(iter(screen_panel.values())).columns), qualifying_stocks=len(qualifiers), rules=[f"{r.factor} {r.operator} {r.value}" for r in rules], results=results, @@ -2015,39 +4131,28 @@ def _get_risk_monitor(): /api/risk/* act on the same object the engine checks. """ global _risk_monitor - if _risk_monitor is None: - from quant_platform.risk.circuit_breaker import get_risk_monitor - _risk_monitor = get_risk_monitor() - return _risk_monitor + instance = _risk_monitor + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _risk_monitor is None: + from quant_platform.risk.circuit_breaker import get_risk_monitor + _risk_monitor = get_risk_monitor() + instance = _risk_monitor + return instance @router.get("/risk/status") async def get_risk_status(): - """Get current risk monitor status.""" + """Get the live risk monitor's current state. + + This used to overwrite the process-wide monitor with the OMS book on + every GET. The OMS is a different book with a different initial capital, + and its `daily_pnl` is cumulative rather than daily, so a frontend poll + could ratchet `peak_value` to the OMS equity and make the next engine + cycle see a 90% drawdown and trip the kill switch. Risk state is owned by + the trading engine/runner, which publish their own snapshots. + """ monitor = _get_risk_monitor() - - # Update with latest OMS data if available - oms = _get_oms() - if oms.positions: - positions = {} - sector_weights = {} - for ticker, pos in oms.positions.items(): - positions[ticker] = { - "value": pos.market_value, - "weight": pos.weight, - "sector": pos.sector or "Unknown", - } - sector = pos.sector or "Unknown" - sector_weights[sector] = sector_weights.get(sector, 0) + pos.weight - - snapshot = oms.get_snapshot() - monitor.update_portfolio_state( - portfolio_value=snapshot.total_value, - daily_pnl=snapshot.daily_pnl, - positions=positions, - sector_weights=sector_weights, - ) - return monitor.get_status() @@ -2058,11 +4163,25 @@ async def activate_kill_switch(req: dict): action = req.get("action", "activate") if action == "activate": - monitor.activate_kill_switch(req.get("reason", "Manual activation")) - return {"status": "activated", "kill_switch": True} + monitor.activate_kill_switch( + req.get("reason", "Manual activation"), actor="api", + ) + status = monitor.get_status() + return { + "status": "activated", "kill_switch": True, + "persisted": bool(status.get("persisted", False)), + "persist_error": bool(status.get("persist_error", False)), + } elif action == "deactivate": - monitor.deactivate_kill_switch() - return {"status": "deactivated", "kill_switch": False} + monitor.deactivate_kill_switch( + reason=req.get("reason", "Manual deactivation"), actor="api", + ) + status = monitor.get_status() + return { + "status": "deactivated", "kill_switch": False, + "persisted": bool(status.get("persisted", False)), + "persist_error": bool(status.get("persist_error", False)), + } else: raise HTTPException(400, "action must be 'activate' or 'deactivate'") @@ -2070,6 +4189,18 @@ async def activate_kill_switch(req: dict): @router.post("/risk/check-order") async def check_order_risk(order: dict): """Pre-trade risk check on an order.""" + # NaN compares false against every limit, so a NaN order was approved + # with an empty breach list. + for key in ("quantity", "price", "limit_price"): + value = order.get(key) + if value is None: + continue + try: + number = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, f"{key} must be a number") from exc + if not np.isfinite(number) or number <= 0: + raise HTTPException(422, f"{key} must be a finite positive number") monitor = _get_risk_monitor() is_approved, breaches = monitor.check_pre_trade(order) return { @@ -2091,21 +4222,51 @@ async def check_order_risk(order: dict): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.post("/execution/smart-route") -async def smart_route_order(req: dict): - """Create execution plan using smart order routing.""" - from quant_platform.execution.algorithms import SmartRouter +def smart_route_order(req: dict): + """Create an execution plan, and optionally send it to the OMS. + + Set ``execute`` to true to turn every slice into a real OMS order + (create -> submit -> fill), so positions and cash move with the parent + order. ``price`` sets the execution price; when omitted the last close + from the configured data feed is used. + """ + from quant_platform.execution.algorithms import PlanExecutor, SmartRouter from quant_platform.execution.models import Order, OrderSide - ticker = req.get("ticker", "") + ticker = str(req.get("ticker", "") or "").strip() side = req.get("side", "buy") quantity = req.get("quantity", 1000) adv = req.get("avg_daily_volume", 1_000_000) urgency = req.get("urgency", "normal") - order = Order(ticker=ticker, side=OrderSide(side), quantity=quantity) + if not ticker: + raise HTTPException(422, "ticker is required") + # Canonical CODE.EXCHANGE keeps OMS position identity consistent with the + # trading runner / live portfolio (D19/D30/D41). + ticker = normalize_symbol(ticker) + if len(ticker) > 32: + raise HTTPException(422, "ticker is too long") + try: + quantity = int(quantity) + adv = float(adv) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity and avg_daily_volume must be numbers") from exc + if quantity <= 0: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity must be positive") + if quantity > 100_000_000: + raise HTTPException(422, "quantity exceeds the 100,000,000-share cap") + if adv <= 0: + raise HTTPException(422, "avg_daily_volume must be positive") + + try: + order_side = OrderSide(side) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, f"side must be 'buy' or 'sell', got {side!r}") from exc + + order = Order(ticker=ticker, side=order_side, quantity=quantity) plan = SmartRouter.execute(order, avg_daily_volume=adv, urgency=urgency) - return { + response = { "plan_id": plan.plan_id, "algorithm": plan.algorithm, "ticker": plan.ticker, @@ -2125,6 +4286,51 @@ async def smart_route_order(req: dict): ], } + if req.get("execute", False): + price = req.get("price") + if price is None: + # Money path: use the **raw** close, never the adjusted research + # panel (`_load_data`'s first element). A provider that cannot + # supply raw prices must fail the request, not fill at hfq levels + # (D15). + try: + config = load_config() + _prices, _returns, _benchmark, metadata, *_rest = _load_data( + config, + ) + raw_panel = None + if metadata is not None: + raw_panel = ( + (getattr(metadata, "attrs", {}) or {}) + .get("raw_prices", {}) + .get("close") + ) + if raw_panel is None or ticker not in raw_panel.columns: + raise RuntimeError( + "the active data provider supplied no raw price panel" + ) + price = float(raw_panel[ticker].dropna().iloc[-1]) + except Exception as e: + raise HTTPException( + status_code=400, + detail=( + "execute=true needs a raw CNY price and none could " + f"be derived for {ticker}: {e}" + ), + ) from e + try: + price = float(price) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(400, "price must be a number") from exc + if not np.isfinite(price) or price <= 0: + raise HTTPException(400, "price must be a finite positive number") + + report = PlanExecutor(_get_oms()).execute_plan(plan, price=float(price)) + response["execution"] = report.to_dict() + response["price_basis"] = "raw" + + return response + # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # HTML Report @@ -2136,7 +4342,8 @@ async def generate_report(req: dict): from quant_platform.reporting.html_report import generate_html_report run_id = req.get("run_id", "") - result = _run_store.get(run_id) + with _run_lock: + result = _run_store.get(run_id) if not result: raise HTTPException(404, f"Run {run_id} not found. Run a pipeline first.") @@ -2168,7 +4375,10 @@ async def generate_report(req: dict): } output_path = f"results/report_{run_id[:8]}.html" - path = generate_html_report(report_input, output_path=output_path) + # HTML generation + file write are blocking; keep them off the loop. + path = await run_in_threadpool( + lambda: generate_html_report(report_input, output_path=output_path), + ) return {"path": path, "run_id": run_id} @@ -2181,10 +4391,35 @@ async def generate_report(req: dict): def _get_multi_strategy_mgr(): global _multi_strategy_mgr - if _multi_strategy_mgr is None: - from quant_platform.strategy.multi_strategy import MultiStrategyManager - _multi_strategy_mgr = MultiStrategyManager() - return _multi_strategy_mgr + instance = _multi_strategy_mgr + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _multi_strategy_mgr is None: + from quant_platform.strategy.multi_strategy import MultiStrategyManager + _multi_strategy_mgr = MultiStrategyManager() + instance = _multi_strategy_mgr + return instance + + +_strategy_orchestrator = None + + +def _get_strategy_orchestrator(): + """Shared orchestrator that owns per-strategy books and cleanup. + + Constructing it registers the manager's removal handler, so deleting a + strategy cancels its open orders, liquidates/transfers its positions and + purges its ledgers instead of orphaning capital. + """ + global _strategy_orchestrator + instance = _strategy_orchestrator + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _strategy_orchestrator is None: + from quant_platform.strategy.portfolio_orchestrator import PortfolioOrchestrator + _strategy_orchestrator = PortfolioOrchestrator(_get_multi_strategy_mgr()) + instance = _strategy_orchestrator + return instance @router.post("/strategy/add") @@ -2193,15 +4428,30 @@ async def strategy_add(req: dict): from quant_platform.strategy.multi_strategy import StrategyConfig mgr = _get_multi_strategy_mgr() + try: + allocation_pct = float(req.get("allocation_pct", 0.0)) + max_drawdown_limit = float(req.get("max_drawdown_limit", 0.15)) + n_stocks = int(req.get("n_stocks", 300)) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "allocation_pct/max_drawdown_limit/n_stocks must be numbers") from exc + # NaN passes every comparison and poisoned /strategy/list and /metrics + # with a non-JSON-compliant value. + if not np.isfinite(allocation_pct) or not 0 <= allocation_pct <= 1: + raise HTTPException(422, "allocation_pct must be a finite fraction in [0, 1]") + if not np.isfinite(max_drawdown_limit) or not 0 < max_drawdown_limit <= 1: + raise HTTPException(422, "max_drawdown_limit must be a finite fraction in (0, 1]") + if not 1 <= n_stocks <= 1000: + raise HTTPException(422, "n_stocks must be between 1 and 1000") + config = StrategyConfig( name=req.get("name", "Unnamed"), description=req.get("description", ""), optimizer=req.get("optimizer", "mean_variance"), alpha_method=req.get("alpha_method", "icir_weighted"), rebalance_frequency=req.get("rebalance_frequency", "monthly"), - n_stocks=req.get("n_stocks", 300), - allocation_pct=req.get("allocation_pct", 0.0), - max_drawdown_limit=req.get("max_drawdown_limit", 0.15), + n_stocks=n_stocks, + allocation_pct=allocation_pct, + max_drawdown_limit=max_drawdown_limit, ) sid = mgr.add_strategy(config) return {"strategy_id": sid, "name": config.name} @@ -2209,11 +4459,13 @@ async def strategy_add(req: dict): @router.post("/strategy/remove") async def strategy_remove(req: dict): - """Remove a strategy.""" - mgr = _get_multi_strategy_mgr() + """Remove a strategy, cancelling orders and unwinding its book.""" sid = req.get("strategy_id", "") - mgr.remove_strategy(sid) - return {"removed": sid} + try: + cleanup = _get_strategy_orchestrator().remove_strategy(sid) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException(404, str(exc)) from exc + return {"removed": sid, "cleanup": cleanup} @router.get("/strategy/list") @@ -2246,7 +4498,21 @@ async def strategy_allocate(req: dict): """Allocate capital across strategies.""" mgr = _get_multi_strategy_mgr() weights = req.get("weights", {}) - mgr.allocate_capital(weights) + if not isinstance(weights, dict) or not weights: + raise HTTPException(422, "weights must be a non-empty mapping of strategy_id -> weight") + unknown = sorted(set(weights) - set(mgr.strategies)) + if unknown: + raise HTTPException(400, f"Unknown strategy_id(s): {unknown}") + try: + weights = {sid: float(w) for sid, w in weights.items()} + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "weights must be numeric") from exc + if any(w < 0 for w in weights.values()): + raise HTTPException(422, "weights must be non-negative") + try: + mgr.allocate_capital(weights) + except ValueError as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, str(exc)) from exc return {"status": "ok", "weights": weights} @@ -2269,7 +4535,14 @@ async def strategy_update_pnl(req: dict): """Update a strategy's daily P&L.""" mgr = _get_multi_strategy_mgr() sid = req.get("strategy_id", "") - daily_return = req.get("daily_return", 0.0) + if sid not in mgr.states: + raise HTTPException(404, f"Unknown strategy_id: {sid}") + try: + daily_return = float(req.get("daily_return", 0.0)) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise HTTPException(422, "daily_return must be a number") from exc + if not np.isfinite(daily_return) or not -1.0 <= daily_return <= 1.0: + raise HTTPException(422, "daily_return must be a finite fraction in [-1, 1]") mgr.update_strategy_pnl(sid, daily_return) return {"status": "ok"} @@ -2278,8 +4551,23 @@ async def strategy_update_pnl(req: dict): # Data Quality # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +def _returns_from_quality_prices(prices: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Build a date x asset return frame from a price panel. + + A `(date, asset)` MultiIndex panel must be unstacked first: `pct_change` + on the flat frame differences consecutive *rows*, i.e. different stocks + on the same date, which reported tens of thousands of fake anomalies. + """ + if isinstance(prices.index, pd.MultiIndex): + field = "close" if "close" in prices.columns else prices.columns[0] + wide = prices[field].unstack("asset") + else: + wide = prices + return wide.replace(0, np.nan).pct_change(fill_method=None).dropna() + + @router.post("/data/quality") -async def data_quality_check(req: dict): +def data_quality_check(req: dict): """Run data quality checks on price data.""" from quant_platform.data.quality import DataQualityMonitor @@ -2294,12 +4582,28 @@ async def data_quality_check(req: dict): max_nan_rate=req.get("max_nan_rate", 0.02), ) + if result and "data_quality" in result: + # Computed when the run executed, while the price panel was in memory. + report = dict(result["data_quality"]) + report["source"] = "run" + report["synthetic"] = False + report["run_id"] = run_id + return report if result and "prices" in result: prices = result["prices"] if isinstance(prices, pd.DataFrame): monitor.check_prices(prices) - returns = prices.pct_change().dropna() - monitor.check_returns(returns) + monitor.check_returns(_returns_from_quality_prices(prices)) + source = "run_prices" + elif run_id: + # The run record does not retain its price panel. Checking an unrelated + # synthetic sample and presenting it as this run's quality was worse + # than saying no. + raise HTTPException( + 422, + "This run does not retain its price panel, so its quality cannot " + "be checked. Run the check without run_id for the synthetic demo.", + ) else: # Generate synthetic data for demo from quant_platform.data.providers.synthetic import SyntheticDataProvider @@ -2307,10 +4611,24 @@ async def data_quality_check(req: dict): prices = provider.get_prices("2023-01-01", "2024-12-31") if isinstance(prices, pd.DataFrame): monitor.check_prices(prices) - returns = prices.pct_change().dropna() - monitor.check_returns(returns) - - report = monitor.get_report() + monitor.check_returns(_returns_from_quality_prices(prices)) + source = "synthetic_demo" + + report = dict(monitor.get_report()) + # Without a provenance marker this report looked like the quality of the + # live data feed; callers can now tell a demo sample from run data. + report["source"] = source + report["synthetic"] = source == "synthetic_demo" + if run_id: + report["run_id"] = run_id + if isinstance(prices, pd.DataFrame) and len(prices.index) > 0: + try: + report["data_date_range"] = [ + str(pd.Timestamp(prices.index.min()).date()), + str(pd.Timestamp(prices.index.max()).date()), + ] + except (TypeError, ValueError): + pass return report @@ -2328,7 +4646,20 @@ async def data_quality_check(req: dict): _core_bus = get_event_bus() _core_sm = PortfolioStateMachine() _core_audit = AuditLog(_core_store, _core_bus) +_core_sm.set_transition_callback( + lambda record: _core_audit.log_state_change( + record.from_state, record.to_state, record.reason, + ) +) _core_risk = get_risk_monitor() +# S21: restore the persisted level/breaches/kill switch at startup and keep +# every change durable. The key is tenant-scoped ('risk_state:default' here). +try: + _core_risk.attach_persistence( + _core_store, tenant_id="default", audit=_core_audit, restore=True, + ) +except Exception: + logger.exception("Risk-state persistence setup failed") # Subscribe EventBus → WebSocket bridge for real-time push for _topic in ["order.filled", "order.rejected", "portfolio.snapshot", @@ -2341,6 +4672,7 @@ async def data_quality_check(req: dict): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- _live_engine = None +_trading_start_lock = threading.Lock() def _get_live_engine(): @@ -2348,13 +4680,46 @@ def _get_live_engine(): return _live_engine +def _rollback_engine_start(engine) -> None: + """Undo the pre-published engine slot after a failed start.""" + global _live_engine + if _live_engine is engine: + _live_engine = None + try: + engine.stop() + except Exception: + logger.exception("Rollback of a failed engine start: stop() failed") + + @router.post("/trading/start") -async def trading_start(req: dict): - """Start the live trading engine with full core architecture.""" +def trading_start(req: dict): + """Start the live trading engine with full core architecture. + + The whole start path is serialized by a module-level lock. Two concurrent + calls used to both pass the running check, construct two engines on the + same broker/store, and leave the first one orphaned (unreachable by + /trading/stop); now the loser gets 409 before constructing anything. + + `_live_engine` is published *before* `engine.start()` -- broker connect, + state restore and the health check take a long window -- so a concurrent + /trading/stop can always reach the engine being started. + """ + if not _trading_start_lock.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + status_code=409, + detail="A trading engine start is already in progress.", + ) + try: + return _start_live_engine(req) + finally: + _trading_start_lock.release() + + +def _start_live_engine(req: dict) -> dict: from quant_platform.trading.broker import SimulatedBroker from quant_platform.trading.engine import LiveTradingEngine - global _live_engine, _core_sm, _core_risk + global _live_engine, _core_sm, _core_audit, _core_risk # Refuse to start a second engine. # @@ -2364,7 +4729,7 @@ async def trading_start(req: dict): # store, and the orphan's kill switch became unreachable because # `_core_risk` was rebound too. LiveTradingEngine.start()'s own # `if self._running: return` guard is per-instance and cannot help. - existing = _get_live_engine() + existing = _live_engine if existing is not None and getattr(existing, "_running", False): raise HTTPException( status_code=409, @@ -2377,23 +4742,69 @@ async def trading_start(req: dict): broker_type = req.get("broker", "simulated") initial_cash = req.get("initial_cash", 1_000_000) n_stocks = req.get("n_stocks", 30) - interval = req.get("rebalance_interval", 300) + # S20: 0/negative intervals made `Event.wait(timeout=...)` return + # immediately and hammer the broker; reject them at the edge with 422. + interval_raw = req.get("rebalance_interval", 300) + try: + if isinstance(interval_raw, bool) or not isinstance( + interval_raw, (int, float) + ): + raise ValueError + if not np.isfinite(float(interval_raw)): + raise ValueError + interval = int(interval_raw) + except (TypeError, ValueError, OverflowError) as exc: + raise HTTPException( + 422, "rebalance_interval must be an integer number of seconds", + ) from exc + if interval != interval_raw or interval < 5: + raise HTTPException( + 422, "rebalance_interval must be an integer >= 5 seconds", + ) if broker_type == "simulated": broker = SimulatedBroker(initial_cash=initial_cash) else: from quant_platform.trading.broker import QMTBroker + # Credentials never travel in request bodies: a body password would be + # logged, cached and forwarded to the broker by any intermediary. + # QMTBroker itself reads QMT_PASSWORD from the environment. + if "password" in req: + raise HTTPException( + 422, + "QMT credentials must not be sent in the request body; set " + "QMT_PASSWORD in the server environment.", + ) + # A body-supplied `server` let any token holder point the broker + # connection at an arbitrary internal host:port (SSRF). The QMT + # terminal address is operator configuration, not request data. + if "server" in req: + raise HTTPException( + 422, + "QMT server must be configured server-side " + "(QMT_SERVER environment variable).", + ) # `QMTBroker.__init__` takes account/server/password/mode/data_server. # This passed `qmt_path` and `account_id`, neither of which exists, so # selecting the QMT broker raised TypeError and the endpoint returned # 500 on every attempt -- the live-trading path could not be started # through the API at all. - broker = QMTBroker( - account=req.get("account_id", ""), - server=req.get("server", "localhost:58610"), - password=req.get("password", "") or os.environ.get("QMT_PASSWORD", ""), - mode=req.get("mode", "sim"), - ) + try: + broker = QMTBroker( + account=req.get("account_id", ""), + server=os.environ.get("QMT_SERVER", "localhost:58610"), + password=os.environ.get("QMT_PASSWORD", ""), + mode=req.get("mode", "sim"), + ) + except Exception as e: + # Missing xtquant / unreachable terminal is an availability + # problem, not an internal fault. + logger.exception("QMT broker unavailable") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "qmt_broker_unavailable", + "QMT broker unavailable; check the xtquant installation and " + "terminal connection (see server logs)", + ) from e # Fresh state machine per engine start, but NOT a fresh risk monitor: # risk state must survive an engine restart, and the Monitor dashboard's @@ -2401,6 +4812,12 @@ async def trading_start(req: dict): # risk.circuit_breaker.get_risk_monitor(). _core_sm = PortfolioStateMachine() _core_audit = AuditLog(_core_store, _core_bus) + # Audit state transitions: the callback is optional and was never wired. + _core_sm.set_transition_callback( + lambda record: _core_audit.log_state_change( + record.from_state, record.to_state, record.reason, + ) + ) _core_risk = get_risk_monitor() engine = LiveTradingEngine( @@ -2414,46 +4831,63 @@ async def trading_start(req: dict): n_stocks=n_stocks, ) - # Set default universe: top stocks by market cap + # Publish the engine before the long start() sequence (broker connect, + # state restore, health check). The exception path rolls the slot back. + _live_engine = engine + try: - from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket - rt = RealTimeMarket() - snapshot = rt.get_market_snapshot() - # Top N by market cap, filter out ST and new stocks - snapshot = snapshot[~snapshot['名称'].str.contains('ST|退', na=False)] - snapshot = snapshot[snapshot['总市值'] > 0] - top = snapshot.nlargest(n_stocks * 2, '总市值') - codes = top['代码'].tolist()[:n_stocks] - engine.set_universe(codes) + # Set default universe: top stocks by market cap + try: + from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket + rt = _get_rt_market() + snapshot = rt.get_market_snapshot() + # Top N by market cap, filter out ST and new stocks + snapshot = snapshot[~snapshot['名称'].str.contains('ST|退', na=False)] + snapshot = snapshot[snapshot['总市值'] > 0] + top = snapshot.nlargest(n_stocks * 2, '总市值') + codes = top['代码'].tolist()[:n_stocks] + engine.set_universe(codes) + except Exception as e: + logger.warning("Failed to set universe from market: %s, using defaults", e) + engine.set_universe([ + '600519', '000001', '601318', '000858', '600036', + '601166', '600276', '000333', '002415', '600900', + '601888', '300750', '600030', '601398', '600887', + '000568', '002304', '600585', '601012', '600809', + '000651', '601668', '002714', '600309', '601899', + '002475', '600048', '601601', '000725', '002352', + ]) + + engine.start() + except HTTPException: + _rollback_engine_start(engine) + raise except Exception as e: - logger.warning("Failed to set universe from market: %s, using defaults", e) - engine.set_universe([ - '600519', '000001', '601318', '000858', '600036', - '601166', '600276', '000333', '002415', '600900', - '601888', '300750', '600030', '601398', '600887', - '000568', '002304', '600585', '601012', '600809', - '000651', '601668', '002714', '600309', '601899', - '002475', '600048', '601601', '000725', '002352', - ]) - - engine.start() - _live_engine = engine + logger.exception("Live trading engine failed to start") + _rollback_engine_start(engine) + raise _internal_error( + 503, "trading_start_failed", + "Trading engine failed to start; see server logs", + ) from e return {"status": "started", "broker": broker_type, "n_stocks": n_stocks} @router.post("/trading/stop") -async def trading_stop(): +def trading_stop(): """Stop the live trading engine.""" - engine = _get_live_engine() - if engine: - engine.stop() - return {"status": "stopped"} + # Serialize with trading_start so a start cannot publish a new engine + # while stop is tearing the previous one down. + with _trading_start_lock: + engine = _live_engine + if engine: + engine.stop() + return {"status": "stopped"} return {"status": "no_engine"} @router.get("/trading/status") -async def trading_status(): +def trading_status(): """Get live trading engine status.""" engine = _get_live_engine() if not engine: @@ -2462,25 +4896,25 @@ async def trading_status(): @router.get("/trading/positions") -async def trading_positions(): +def trading_positions(): """Get live trading positions.""" engine = _get_live_engine() if not engine: - return {"positions": []} - return {"positions": engine.get_positions()} + return {"positions": [], "price_basis": "raw"} + return {"positions": engine.get_positions(), "price_basis": "raw"} @router.get("/trading/account") -async def trading_account(): +def trading_account(): """Get live trading account info.""" engine = _get_live_engine() if not engine: - return {"account": {}} - return {"account": engine.get_account()} + return {"account": {}, "price_basis": "raw"} + return {"account": engine.get_account(), "price_basis": "raw"} @router.get("/trading/cycles") -async def trading_cycles(): +def trading_cycles(): """Get recent trading cycles.""" engine = _get_live_engine() if not engine: @@ -2489,10 +4923,10 @@ async def trading_cycles(): @router.post("/trading/order") -async def trading_manual_order(req: dict): +def trading_manual_order(req: dict): """Place a manual order.""" engine = _get_live_engine() - if not engine: + if not engine or not getattr(engine, "_running", False): raise HTTPException(400, "Engine not running") return engine.manual_order( code=req.get("code", ""), @@ -2503,10 +4937,13 @@ async def trading_manual_order(req: dict): @router.post("/trading/run-once") -async def trading_run_once(): +def trading_run_once(): """Run a single trading cycle manually.""" engine = _get_live_engine() - if not engine: + # A stopped engine stays in the global slot so status/positions remain + # inspectable. Checking only `engine is None` let run-once and manual + # orders keep executing after POST /trading/stop. + if not engine or not getattr(engine, "_running", False): raise HTTPException(400, "Engine not running") cycle = engine.run_once() return cycle.to_dict() @@ -2517,55 +4954,99 @@ async def trading_run_once(): # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @router.get("/market/snapshot") -async def market_snapshot(): +def market_snapshot(): """Get real-time A-share market snapshot.""" try: from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket - rt = RealTimeMarket() + rt = _get_rt_market() df = rt.get_market_snapshot() # Return top 50 by amount for performance top = df.nlargest(50, '成交额') records = top[['代码', '名称', '最新价', '涨跌幅', '成交额', '换手率', '市盈率-动态', '总市值']].to_dict('records') - return {"stocks": records, "total": len(df), "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat()} + # Report when the data was fetched, not when this request was served. + data_timestamp = rt.snapshot_fetched_at or datetime.now().isoformat() + return { + "stocks": records, + "total": len(df), + "timestamp": data_timestamp, + "data_timestamp": data_timestamp, + "stale": rt.snapshot_is_stale, + } + except ImportError as e: + logger.exception("Market data dependency missing") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "market_data_dependency_missing", + "Market data provider dependency is not installed", + ) from e except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(500, str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Market data request failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "market_data_failed", "Market data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e @router.get("/market/gainers") -async def market_gainers(): +def market_gainers(): """Get top gainers.""" try: from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket - rt = RealTimeMarket() + rt = _get_rt_market() df = rt.get_top_gainers(20) return {"stocks": df.to_dict('records')} + except ImportError as e: + logger.exception("Market data dependency missing") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "market_data_dependency_missing", + "Market data provider dependency is not installed", + ) from e except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(500, str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Market data request failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "market_data_failed", "Market data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e @router.get("/market/losers") -async def market_losers(): +def market_losers(): """Get top losers.""" try: from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket - rt = RealTimeMarket() + rt = _get_rt_market() df = rt.get_top_losers(20) return {"stocks": df.to_dict('records')} + except ImportError as e: + logger.exception("Market data dependency missing") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "market_data_dependency_missing", + "Market data provider dependency is not installed", + ) from e except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(500, str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Market data request failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "market_data_failed", "Market data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e @router.get("/market/sectors") -async def market_sectors(): +def market_sectors(): """Get sector data.""" try: from quant_platform.trading.realtime import RealTimeMarket - rt = RealTimeMarket() + rt = _get_rt_market() df = rt.get_sector_data() records = df.head(30).to_dict('records') return {"sectors": records} + except ImportError as e: + logger.exception("Market data dependency missing") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "market_data_dependency_missing", + "Market data provider dependency is not installed", + ) from e except Exception as e: - raise HTTPException(500, str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Market data request failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "market_data_failed", "Market data unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -2574,55 +5055,130 @@ async def market_sectors(): @router.get("/core/events") async def core_events(topic: str = "", limit: int = 50): - """Get event bus history.""" - return {"events": _core_bus.get_history(topic=topic, limit=limit)} + """Get event bus history (bounded; the ring buffer holds 100k events).""" + limit = _bounded_limit(limit, default=50, maximum=1000) + events = await run_in_threadpool( + _core_bus.get_history, topic=topic, limit=limit, + ) + # The global ring carries every tenant's audit payloads. Serve those via + # /api/core/audit (tenant-filtered) instead of leaking them here. + def _is_audit_event(event) -> bool: + topic = str(event.get("topic", "")).strip().lower() + return topic == "audit" or topic.startswith("audit.") + + events = [event for event in events if not _is_audit_event(event)] + return {"events": events} @router.get("/core/events/metrics") async def core_events_metrics(): """Get event bus metrics (publish counts, subscriber counts).""" - return _core_bus.get_metrics() + return await run_in_threadpool(_core_bus.get_metrics) @router.get("/core/store/stats") -async def core_store_stats(): - """Get SQLite store statistics.""" - return _core_store.get_stats() +async def core_store_stats( + request: Request, tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get SQLite store statistics for one tenant (explicit ``all_tenants`` + is loopback-only).""" + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + stats = await run_in_threadpool(_core_store.get_stats, tenant_id=tenant) + return {**stats, "tenant_id": tenant or "all", "all_tenants": not tenant} @router.get("/core/store/orders") -async def core_store_orders(status: str = "", code: str = "", limit: int = 100): - """Get orders from persistent store.""" - return {"orders": _core_store.get_orders(status=status, code=code, limit=limit)} +async def core_store_orders( + request: Request, status: str = "", code: str = "", limit: int = 100, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get orders from the persistent store for one tenant.""" + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "orders": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_store.get_orders, status=status, code=code, limit=limit, + tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/store/trades") -async def core_store_trades(code: str = "", limit: int = 100): - """Get trade history from persistent store.""" - return {"trades": _core_store.get_trades(code=code, limit=limit)} +async def core_store_trades( + request: Request, code: str = "", limit: int = 100, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get trade history from the persistent store for one tenant.""" + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "trades": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_store.get_trades, code=code, limit=limit, tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/store/pnl") -async def core_store_pnl(days: int = 30): - """Get P&L history from persistent store.""" - return {"history": _core_store.get_pnl_history(days=days)} +async def core_store_pnl( + request: Request, days: int = 30, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get P&L history from the persistent store for one tenant.""" + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "history": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_store.get_pnl_history, days=days, tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/store/signals") -async def core_store_signals(consumed: int = -1, limit: int = 100): - """Get signal history from persistent store.""" - return {"signals": _core_store.get_signals(consumed=consumed, limit=limit)} +async def core_store_signals( + request: Request, consumed: int = -1, limit: int = 100, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get signal history from the persistent store for one tenant.""" + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "signals": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_store.get_signals, consumed=consumed, limit=limit, + tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/store/sessions") -async def core_store_sessions(limit: int = 20): - """Get trading session history.""" - return {"sessions": _core_store.get_sessions(limit=limit)} +async def core_store_sessions( + request: Request, limit: int = 20, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get trading session history for one tenant.""" + # The store re-clamps too; this makes limit=-1 / 0 / 1e9 explicit at the + # API boundary (SQLite treats LIMIT -1 as unlimited). + limit = _bounded_limit(limit, default=20, maximum=1000) + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "sessions": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_store.get_sessions, limit=limit, tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/state") async def core_state(): """Get state machine current state and history.""" + return await run_in_threadpool(_core_state_payload) + + +def _core_state_payload() -> dict: return { "current_state": _core_sm.state_str, "state_duration": round(_core_sm.state_duration, 1), @@ -2631,15 +5187,27 @@ async def core_state(): @router.get("/core/audit") -async def core_audit(action: str = "", limit: int = 50): - """Get recent audit log entries.""" - return {"events": _core_audit.get_recent(action=action, limit=limit)} +async def core_audit( + request: Request, action: str = "", limit: int = 50, + tenant_id: str = "", all_tenants: bool = False, +): + """Get recent audit log entries for one tenant.""" + limit = _bounded_limit(limit, default=50, maximum=1000) + tenant = _resolve_tenant(request, tenant_id, all_tenants) + return { + "tenant_id": tenant or "all", + "all_tenants": not tenant, + "events": await run_in_threadpool( + _core_audit.get_recent, action=action, limit=limit, + tenant_id=tenant, + ), + } @router.get("/core/risk") async def core_risk(): """Get current risk monitor status.""" - return _core_risk.get_status() + return await run_in_threadpool(_core_risk.get_status) @router.post("/core/risk/kill-switch") @@ -2647,10 +5215,20 @@ async def core_risk_kill_switch(req: dict): """Activate or deactivate the kill switch.""" activate = req.get("activate", True) if activate: - _core_risk.activate_kill_switch(reason=req.get("reason", "Manual API activation")) + _core_risk.activate_kill_switch( + reason=req.get("reason", "Manual API activation"), actor="api", + ) else: - _core_risk.deactivate_kill_switch() - return {"kill_switch_active": _core_risk.kill_switch_active, "risk_level": _core_risk.risk_level.value} + _core_risk.deactivate_kill_switch( + reason=req.get("reason", "Manual API deactivation"), actor="api", + ) + status = _core_risk.get_status() + return { + "kill_switch_active": _core_risk.kill_switch_active, + "risk_level": _core_risk.risk_level.value, + "persisted": bool(status.get("persisted", False)), + "persist_error": bool(status.get("persist_error", False)), + } # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -2658,10 +5236,19 @@ async def core_risk_kill_switch(req: dict): # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @router.post("/ml/train", response_model=MLPerformanceResponse) -async def ml_train(req: MLTrainRequest): +def ml_train(req: MLTrainRequest): + """Train an ML alpha model (bounded full-pipeline compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_ml_train_impl, req) + + +def _ml_train_impl(req: MLTrainRequest) -> MLPerformanceResponse: """Train ML model for alpha signal generation.""" try: - from quant_platform.alpha.ml_signal import MLSignalConfig, MLSignalGenerator + from quant_platform.alpha.ml_signal import ( + InsufficientTrainingData, + MLSignalConfig, + MLSignalGenerator, + ) config = load_config() prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data(config) @@ -2686,16 +5273,58 @@ async def ml_train(req: MLTrainRequest): n_train_samples=perf.n_train_samples, date=perf.date, ) + except InsufficientTrainingData as e: + # The sample is too short for an honest model: a client-input problem, + # not an internal failure. + raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=str(e)) from e except Exception as e: - logger.error("ML train failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("ML train failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "ml_train_failed", "ML training failed; see server logs", + ) from e @router.post("/ml/predict", response_model=MLSignalResponse) -async def ml_predict(req: MLTrainRequest): - """Generate ML-based alpha signals.""" +def ml_predict(req: MLTrainRequest): + """Generate ML alpha signals (bounded full-pipeline compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_ml_predict_impl, req) + + +#: Upper bound on the dates x assets matrix returned by `/ml/predict`. The +#: default universe x full history is ~630k cells / ~4.7 MiB of JSON, and the +#: serialization alone blocks for ~200 ms. When the matrix exceeds this, the +#: *most recent* dates are kept and older dates are dropped (documented in the +#: endpoint docstring) rather than returning a 413 for the default request. +_MAX_ML_MATRIX_CELLS = 250_000 + + +def _truncate_signal_matrix(signal: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Keep the most recent dates such that dates x assets <= the cap.""" + n_assets = max(1, len(signal.columns)) + max_dates = max(1, _MAX_ML_MATRIX_CELLS // n_assets) + if len(signal.index) <= max_dates: + return signal + logger.warning( + "Truncating /ml/predict response from %d to %d dates (%d assets) to " + "stay under %d matrix cells", + len(signal.index), max_dates, len(signal.columns), + _MAX_ML_MATRIX_CELLS, + ) + return signal.iloc[-max_dates:] + + +def _ml_predict_impl(req: MLTrainRequest) -> MLSignalResponse: + """Generate ML-based alpha signals. + + The response matrix is capped at `_MAX_ML_MATRIX_CELLS` cells; when the + signal is larger, only the most recent dates are returned. + """ try: - from quant_platform.alpha.ml_signal import MLSignalConfig, MLSignalGenerator + from quant_platform.alpha.ml_signal import ( + InsufficientTrainingData, + MLSignalConfig, + MLSignalGenerator, + ) config = load_config() prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data(config) @@ -2708,20 +5337,28 @@ async def ml_predict(req: MLTrainRequest): n_splits=req.n_splits, ) generator = MLSignalGenerator(config=ml_config) - signal = generator.generate( - processed_factors, - returns, - force_retrain=req.force_retrain, - ) + # `generate()` has no force_retrain parameter; passing it raised + # TypeError and this endpoint returned 500 on every request. + signal = generator.generate(processed_factors, returns) + + # Bound the matrix before serializing it. + signal = _truncate_signal_matrix(signal) dates = [str(d) for d in signal.index] assets = list(signal.columns) - signal_data = signal.values.tolist() + signal_data = [ + [None if pd.isna(value) else float(value) for value in row] + for row in signal.values.tolist() + ] return MLSignalResponse(dates=dates, assets=assets, signal=signal_data) + except InsufficientTrainingData as e: + raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=str(e)) from e except Exception as e: - logger.error("ML predict failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("ML predict failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "ml_predict_failed", "ML prediction failed; see server logs", + ) from e # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -2729,7 +5366,12 @@ async def ml_predict(req: MLTrainRequest): # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @router.post("/ic-monitor/compute", response_model=ICMonitorSummary) -async def ic_monitor_compute(req: ICMonitorRequest): +def ic_monitor_compute(req: ICMonitorRequest): + """Compute IC statistics (bounded full-pipeline compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_ic_monitor_compute_impl, req) + + +def _ic_monitor_compute_impl(req: ICMonitorRequest) -> ICMonitorSummary: """Compute IC statistics for all factors with decay detection.""" try: from quant_platform.factors.ic_monitor import FactorICMonitor, ICMonitorConfig @@ -2766,12 +5408,20 @@ async def ic_monitor_compute(req: ICMonitorRequest): return ICMonitorSummary(factors=factor_stats, alerts=alerts, adaptive_weights=weights) except Exception as e: - logger.error("IC monitor compute failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("IC monitor compute failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "ic_monitor_compute_failed", + "IC monitor computation failed; see server logs", + ) from e @router.get("/ic-monitor/alerts") -async def ic_monitor_alerts(): +def ic_monitor_alerts(): + """Get current IC decay alerts (bounded full-pipeline compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_ic_monitor_alerts_impl) + + +def _ic_monitor_alerts_impl(): """Get current IC decay alerts.""" try: from quant_platform.factors.ic_monitor import FactorICMonitor @@ -2785,40 +5435,98 @@ async def ic_monitor_alerts(): monitor.compute_all(processed_factors, returns) return {"alerts": monitor.get_alerts()} except Exception as e: - logger.error("IC monitor alerts failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("IC monitor alerts failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "ic_monitor_alerts_failed", + "IC monitor alerts unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Barra Risk Model endpoints # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +def _resolve_weights_with_source( + requested: dict[str, float] | None, + prices: pd.DataFrame, + raw_prices: pd.DataFrame | None = None, +) -> tuple[pd.Series, str]: + """Pick the portfolio to decompose and say where the weights came from. + + Explicit weights win; otherwise the current OMS positions are marked to + the latest **raw** close (an adjusted research panel would distort the + weights by the corporate-action factor, D15); otherwise the universe is + equal-weighted. Equal weight over the whole universe has zero net + exposure to every cross-sectionally standardized factor by construction, + so that fallback is only a safe default, not a meaningful risk + decomposition. + """ + if requested: + raw = pd.Series(requested, dtype=float) + source = "request" + else: + marks: dict[str, float] = {} + mark_panel = raw_prices if raw_prices is not None else prices + for ticker, position in getattr(_get_oms(), "positions", {}).items(): + key = ticker + if key not in mark_panel.columns: + key = normalize_symbol(ticker) + if key not in mark_panel.columns: + continue + series = mark_panel[key].dropna() + if series.empty: + continue + marks[key] = float(position.quantity) * float(series.iloc[-1]) + if marks: + raw = pd.Series(marks, dtype=float) + source = "oms_positions" + else: + raw = pd.Series(1.0, index=prices.columns) + source = "equal_weight" + + weights = raw.reindex(prices.columns).fillna(0.0) + total = float(weights.sum()) + if total <= 0: + raise HTTPException(status_code=400, detail="Portfolio weights must sum to a positive value") + return weights / total, source + + @router.post("/barra/decompose", response_model=BarraRiskResponse) -async def barra_decompose(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): +def barra_decompose(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): + """Decompose portfolio risk using Barra 10-factor model (bounded compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_barra_decompose_impl, req) + + +def _barra_decompose_impl(req: BarraDecomposeRequest) -> BarraRiskResponse: """Decompose portfolio risk using Barra 10-factor model.""" try: - from quant_platform.risk.barra import BarraModel config = load_config() prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data(config) processed_factors, _ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config) - # Use equal weight portfolio as default - assets = list(prices.columns) - n = len(assets) - weights = pd.Series(1.0 / n, index=assets) + raw_prices = ( + (getattr(metadata, "attrs", {}) or {}) + .get("raw_prices", {}) + .get("close") + if metadata is not None else None + ) - model = BarraModel( + # Shared with POST /api/risk/decompose -- one model fit, one set of + # math, so the two endpoints cannot drift apart. + _model, result, _weights, _source = _barra_decomposition( + prices, + returns, + benchmark, + financials, + processed_factors, + weights_requested=req.weights, + date=req.date, half_life=req.half_life, shrinkage_target=req.shrinkage_target, + raw_prices=raw_prices, ) - model.fit(processed_factors, returns) - - # Build factor_exposures dict for decompose_risk - factor_exposures = processed_factors - - result = model.decompose_risk(weights, factor_exposures, date=req.date) return BarraRiskResponse( total_risk=round(result.total_risk, 6), @@ -2829,12 +5537,20 @@ async def barra_decompose(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): factor_exposures={k: round(v, 6) for k, v in result.factor_exposures.items()}, ) except Exception as e: - logger.error("Barra decompose failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Barra decompose failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "barra_decompose_failed", + "Barra risk decomposition failed; see server logs", + ) from e @router.post("/barra/covariance", response_model=BarraCovarianceResponse) -async def barra_covariance(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): +def barra_covariance(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): + """Get Barra factor covariance matrix (bounded full-pipeline compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_barra_covariance_impl, req) + + +def _barra_covariance_impl(req: BarraDecomposeRequest) -> BarraCovarianceResponse: """Get Barra factor covariance matrix.""" try: from quant_platform.risk.barra import BarraModel @@ -2848,7 +5564,14 @@ async def barra_covariance(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): half_life=req.half_life, shrinkage_target=req.shrinkage_target, ) - model.fit(processed_factors, returns) + factor_exposures = model.build_exposures( + prices, + returns, + benchmark=benchmark, + financials=financials, + platform_factors=processed_factors, + ) + model.fit(factor_exposures, returns) cov_df = model.get_factor_covariance_df() return BarraCovarianceResponse( @@ -2856,8 +5579,11 @@ async def barra_covariance(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): covariance=cov_df.values.tolist(), ) except Exception as e: - logger.error("Barra covariance failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Barra covariance failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "barra_covariance_failed", + "Barra covariance computation failed; see server logs", + ) from e # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -2865,7 +5591,12 @@ async def barra_covariance(req: BarraDecomposeRequest): # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @router.post("/parallel/sweep", response_model=ParallelSweepResponse) -async def parallel_sweep(req: ParallelSweepRequest): +def parallel_sweep(req: ParallelSweepRequest): + """Run a parallel parameter sweep (bounded compute).""" + return _run_bounded_compute(_parallel_sweep_impl, req) + + +def _parallel_sweep_impl(req: ParallelSweepRequest) -> ParallelSweepResponse: """Run parameter sweep in parallel using multiple processes.""" try: from quant_platform.backtest.distributed import ParallelBacktester @@ -2885,9 +5616,15 @@ async def parallel_sweep(req: ParallelSweepRequest): n_success=sweep.n_success, n_failed=sweep.n_failed, ) + except ValueError as e: + # Invalid parameter keys/values are client errors, not server faults. + raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=str(e)) from e except Exception as e: - logger.error("Parallel sweep failed: %s", e) - raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=str(e)) from e + logger.exception("Parallel sweep failed") + raise _internal_error( + 500, "parallel_sweep_failed", + "Parallel sweep failed; see server logs", + ) from e # ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -2914,23 +5651,58 @@ async def prometheus_metrics_json(): # ────────────────────────────────────────────── -# PostgreSQL Store +# Store statistics # ────────────────────────────────────────────── +_stats_cache_lock = threading.Lock() +_stats_cache: dict[str, Any] = {"key": None, "at": 0.0, "payload": None} +_STATS_CACHE_TTL = 5.0 + + +def _store_backend(store) -> str: + """The store's real backend (the old endpoint always claimed sqlite).""" + if "postgres" in type(store).__name__.lower(): + return "postgresql" + return "sqlite" + + @router.get("/postgres/stats", response_model=PostgresStoreStatsResponse) async def postgres_stats(): - """Get PostgreSQL store statistics.""" - from quant_platform.core.store import Store - store = Store() - stats = store.get_stats() - return PostgresStoreStatsResponse( - backend=stats.get("backend", "sqlite"), + """Get store statistics from the process-wide store. + + This used to construct a brand-new `Store()` per poll on the event loop: + every request re-ran schema creation/migrations and opened a connection, + and the response always said "sqlite" because it never looked at the + configured backend. The process store is reused, `get_stats` runs in a + worker thread, and the result is cached briefly (an inventory poll does + not need to COUNT(*) every table on every request). + """ + store = _core_store + cache_key = id(store) + now = time.monotonic() + with _stats_cache_lock: + cached = _stats_cache["payload"] + if ( + cached is not None + and _stats_cache["key"] == cache_key + and now - _stats_cache["at"] < _STATS_CACHE_TTL + ): + return cached + + stats = await run_in_threadpool(store.get_stats) + payload = PostgresStoreStatsResponse( + backend=stats.get("backend") or _store_backend(store), orders=stats.get("orders", 0), positions=stats.get("positions", 0), trades=stats.get("trades", 0), pnl_snapshots=stats.get("pnl_snapshots", 0), signals=stats.get("signals", 0), ) + with _stats_cache_lock: + _stats_cache.update( + key=cache_key, at=time.monotonic(), payload=payload, + ) + return payload # ────────────────────────────────────────────── @@ -2940,28 +5712,87 @@ async def postgres_stats(): # Global simulated provider instance for demo _ws_provider = None +#: How long the quote endpoints wait for a just-started provider to report a +#: connection. Waiting uses `asyncio.sleep`; the old code executed a blocking +#: `time.sleep(0.5)` inside an `async def`, freezing the whole event loop for +#: half a second per request. +_QUOTE_READY_TIMEOUT = 2.0 +_QUOTE_READY_POLL = 0.05 + def _get_ws_provider(): global _ws_provider - if _ws_provider is None: - from quant_platform.data.providers.websocket_provider import SimulatedWebSocketProvider - _ws_provider = SimulatedWebSocketProvider( - codes=["600519", "000001", "300750", "601318", "000858"], - update_interval=1.0, - ) - return _ws_provider + instance = _ws_provider + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _ws_provider is None: + from quant_platform.data.providers.websocket_provider import SimulatedWebSocketProvider + _ws_provider = SimulatedWebSocketProvider( + codes=["600519", "000001", "300750", "601318", "000858"], + update_interval=1.0, + ) + instance = _ws_provider + return instance + + +async def _await_ws_provider_ready(provider) -> None: + """Wait (without blocking the loop) for a quote provider to connect.""" + if provider.is_connected: + return + try: + provider.start() + except Exception as e: + logger.exception("Quote provider failed to start") + raise _internal_error( + 503, "quote_provider_start_failed", + "Quote provider unavailable; see server logs", + ) from e + loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + deadline = loop.time() + _QUOTE_READY_TIMEOUT + while not provider.is_connected: + if loop.time() >= deadline: + raise HTTPException( + status_code=503, + detail="Quote provider is still starting; retry shortly", + headers={"Retry-After": "1"}, + ) + await asyncio.sleep(_QUOTE_READY_POLL) + + +@router.get("/ws-quotes/start", include_in_schema=False) +def ws_quotes_start_get(): + """State-changing endpoint: GET is rejected so a link/img cannot start it. + + Without this stub the generic ``/ws-quotes/{code}`` route would swallow + ``GET /ws-quotes/start`` and start the provider while reporting a 404. + """ + raise HTTPException( + status_code=405, + detail="Use POST /api/ws-quotes/start", + headers={"Allow": "POST"}, + ) -@router.get("/ws-quotes/start") -async def ws_quotes_start(): +@router.post("/ws-quotes/start") +def ws_quotes_start(): """Start WebSocket quote provider.""" provider = _get_ws_provider() provider.start() return {"status": "started", **provider.stats} -@router.get("/ws-quotes/stop") -async def ws_quotes_stop(): +@router.get("/ws-quotes/stop", include_in_schema=False) +def ws_quotes_stop_get(): + """State-changing endpoint: GET is rejected (see ``ws_quotes_start_get``).""" + raise HTTPException( + status_code=405, + detail="Use POST /api/ws-quotes/stop", + headers={"Allow": "POST"}, + ) + + +@router.post("/ws-quotes/stop") +def ws_quotes_stop(): """Stop WebSocket quote provider.""" provider = _get_ws_provider() provider.stop() @@ -2980,10 +5811,7 @@ async def ws_quotes_stats(): async def ws_quote_by_code(code: str): """Get real-time quote for a single stock.""" provider = _get_ws_provider() - if not provider.is_connected: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.5) + await _await_ws_provider_ready(provider) quote = provider.get_quote(code) if not quote: raise HTTPException(404, f"No quote for {code}") @@ -2994,10 +5822,7 @@ async def ws_quote_by_code(code: str): async def ws_all_quotes(): """Get all cached real-time quotes.""" provider = _get_ws_provider() - if not provider.is_connected: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.5) + await _await_ws_provider_ready(provider) quotes = provider.get_all_quotes() return [RealtimeQuoteResponse(**q.to_dict()) for q in quotes.values()] @@ -3011,25 +5836,29 @@ async def ws_all_quotes(): def _get_l2_provider(): global _l2_provider - if _l2_provider is None: - from quant_platform.data.providers.level2_provider import Level2DataProvider - _l2_provider = Level2DataProvider( - codes=["600519", "000001", "300750", "601318", "000858"], - ) - return _l2_provider + instance = _l2_provider + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _l2_provider is None: + from quant_platform.data.providers.level2_provider import Level2DataProvider + _l2_provider = Level2DataProvider( + codes=["600519", "000001", "300750", "601318", "000858"], + ) + instance = _l2_provider + return instance -@router.get("/l2/start") -async def l2_start(): - """Start Level 2 data provider.""" +@router.post("/l2/start") +def l2_start(): + """Start Level 2 data provider (POST-only; a GET changed state).""" provider = _get_l2_provider() provider.start() return {"status": "started", **provider.stats} -@router.get("/l2/stop") -async def l2_stop(): - """Stop Level 2 data provider.""" +@router.post("/l2/stop") +def l2_stop(): + """Stop Level 2 data provider (POST-only; a GET changed state).""" provider = _get_l2_provider() provider.stop() return {"status": "stopped"} @@ -3043,13 +5872,13 @@ async def l2_stats(): @router.get("/l2/book/{code}", response_model=OrderBookResponse) -async def l2_order_book(code: str): +def l2_order_book(code: str): """Get order book for a stock.""" provider = _get_l2_provider() if not provider.is_running: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.3) + raise HTTPException( + 503, "Level 2 provider is not running; POST /api/l2/start first", + ) book = provider.get_order_book(code) if not book: raise HTTPException(404, f"No order book for {code}") @@ -3057,38 +5886,55 @@ async def l2_order_book(code: str): @router.get("/l2/ticks/{code}", response_model=list[TickDataResponse]) -async def l2_ticks(code: str, limit: int = 100): - """Get recent tick data for a stock.""" +def l2_ticks( + code: str, + limit: int = Query(100, ge=1, le=5000), +): + """Get recent tick data for a stock (limit 1..5000). + + A raw limit was passed to `ticks[-limit:]`: 0 returned the entire + 10,000-tick buffer and a negative limit dropped the oldest rows instead + of rejecting the request. + """ provider = _get_l2_provider() if not provider.is_running: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.3) + raise HTTPException( + 503, "Level 2 provider is not running; POST /api/l2/start first", + ) ticks = provider.get_ticks(code, limit=limit) return [TickDataResponse(**t.to_dict()) for t in ticks] @router.get("/l2/vwap/{code}", response_model=VWAPResponse) -async def l2_vwap(code: str, n_ticks: int = 100): +def l2_vwap(code: str, n_ticks: int = Query(100, ge=1, le=5000)): """Compute VWAP from recent ticks.""" provider = _get_l2_provider() if not provider.is_running: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.3) + raise HTTPException( + 503, "Level 2 provider is not running; POST /api/l2/start first", + ) + ticks = provider.get_ticks(code, limit=n_ticks) + if not ticks or sum(t.volume for t in ticks) <= 0: + # Returning vwap=0.0 with n_ticks=100 presented "no data" as a price. + raise HTTPException(404, f"No tick data for {code}") vwap = provider.compute_vwap(code, n_ticks=n_ticks) - return VWAPResponse(code=code, vwap=round(vwap, 4), n_ticks=n_ticks) + return VWAPResponse( + code=code, vwap=round(vwap, 4), n_ticks=len(ticks), + simulated=True, source="simulated", + ) @router.get("/l2/flow/{code}", response_model=TradeFlowResponse) -async def l2_trade_flow(code: str, n_ticks: int = 100): +def l2_trade_flow(code: str, n_ticks: int = Query(100, ge=1, le=5000)): """Compute buy/sell trade flow imbalance.""" provider = _get_l2_provider() if not provider.is_running: - provider.start() - import time - time.sleep(0.3) + raise HTTPException( + 503, "Level 2 provider is not running; POST /api/l2/start first", + ) flow = provider.compute_trade_flow(code, n_ticks=n_ticks) + if flow["buy_volume"] + flow["sell_volume"] <= 0: + raise HTTPException(404, f"No directional tick data for {code}") return TradeFlowResponse(code=code, **flow) @@ -3101,10 +5947,29 @@ async def l2_trade_flow(code: str, n_ticks: int = 100): def _get_fundamental_provider(): global _fundamental_provider - if _fundamental_provider is None: - from quant_platform.data.providers.fundamental_realtime import FundamentalDataProvider - _fundamental_provider = FundamentalDataProvider() - return _fundamental_provider + instance = _fundamental_provider + if instance is None: + with _singleton_lock: + if _fundamental_provider is None: + from quant_platform.data.providers.fundamental_realtime import FundamentalDataProvider + _fundamental_provider = FundamentalDataProvider() + instance = _fundamental_provider + return instance + + +#: The provider paces outbound requests at 0.5 s per uncached code, so one +#: 100-code call can hold a worker thread for ~50 s. Only one such fetch runs +#: at a time; the rest get 429 rather than piling up on AnyIO's thread pool. +_fundamental_fetch_slots = threading.BoundedSemaphore(1) + + +def _acquire_fundamental_slot() -> None: + if not _fundamental_fetch_slots.acquire(blocking=False): + raise HTTPException( + status_code=429, + detail="A fundamentals fetch is already in progress; retry shortly", + headers={"Retry-After": "15"}, + ) @router.get("/fundamentals/stats") @@ -3114,7 +5979,7 @@ async def fundamental_stats(): return provider.stats @router.get("/fundamentals/{code}", response_model=FundamentalMetricsResponse) -async def get_fundamentals(code: str): +def get_fundamentals(code: str): """Get real-time fundamental metrics for a stock.""" provider = _get_fundamental_provider() metrics = provider.get_fundamentals(code) @@ -3122,46 +5987,116 @@ async def get_fundamentals(code: str): @router.post("/fundamentals/bulk", response_model=list[FundamentalMetricsResponse]) -async def get_fundamentals_bulk(codes: list[str]): - """Get fundamentals for multiple stocks.""" - provider = _get_fundamental_provider() - metrics = provider.get_bulk(codes) +def get_fundamentals_bulk(codes: list[str]): + """Get fundamentals for multiple stocks (one paced fetch at a time).""" + # Each uncached code performs an outbound request with a 0.5s pause; an + # unbounded list is both a resource and a quota-abuse vector. + if len(codes) > 100: + raise HTTPException(422, "at most 100 codes per request") + _acquire_fundamental_slot() + try: + provider = _get_fundamental_provider() + metrics = provider.get_bulk(codes) + finally: + _fundamental_fetch_slots.release() return [FundamentalMetricsResponse(**m.to_dict()) for m in metrics.values()] @router.post("/fundamentals/screen", response_model=FundamentalScreenResponse) -async def screen_fundamentals(req: FundamentalScreenRequest): - """Screen stocks by fundamental criteria.""" +def screen_fundamentals(req: FundamentalScreenRequest): + """Screen stocks by fundamental criteria (one paced fetch at a time).""" from quant_platform.data.providers.fundamental_realtime import FundamentalScreener - provider = _get_fundamental_provider() - screener = FundamentalScreener(provider) - passed = screener.screen( - req.codes, - pe_min=req.pe_min, pe_max=req.pe_max, - pb_min=req.pb_min, pb_max=req.pb_max, - roe_min=req.roe_min, roe_max=req.roe_max, - market_cap_min=req.market_cap_min, - dividend_yield_min=req.dividend_yield_min, - debt_ratio_max=req.debt_ratio_max, - ) + _acquire_fundamental_slot() + try: + provider = _get_fundamental_provider() + screener = FundamentalScreener(provider) + passed = screener.screen( + req.codes, + pe_min=req.pe_min, pe_max=req.pe_max, + pb_min=req.pb_min, pb_max=req.pb_max, + roe_min=req.roe_min, roe_max=req.roe_max, + market_cap_min=req.market_cap_min, + dividend_yield_min=req.dividend_yield_min, + debt_ratio_max=req.debt_ratio_max, + ) + finally: + _fundamental_fetch_slots.release() return FundamentalScreenResponse( total=len(req.codes), passed=len(passed), codes=passed, ) @router.post("/fundamentals/rank", response_model=FundamentalRankResponse) -async def rank_fundamentals(req: FundamentalRankRequest): - """Rank stocks by a fundamental metric.""" +def rank_fundamentals(req: FundamentalRankRequest): + """Rank stocks by a fundamental metric (one paced fetch at a time).""" from quant_platform.data.providers.fundamental_realtime import FundamentalScreener - provider = _get_fundamental_provider() - screener = FundamentalScreener(provider) - ranked = screener.rank_by( - req.codes, metric=req.metric, - ascending=req.ascending, top_n=req.top_n, - ) + _acquire_fundamental_slot() + try: + provider = _get_fundamental_provider() + screener = FundamentalScreener(provider) + ranked = screener.rank_by( + req.codes, metric=req.metric, + ascending=req.ascending, top_n=req.top_n, + ) + finally: + _fundamental_fetch_slots.release() return FundamentalRankResponse( metric=req.metric, ranked=[{"code": code, "value": round(val, 4)} for code, val in ranked], ) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Application lifecycle helpers (called from app.py's lifespan) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +def initialize_singletons() -> None: + """Construct the critical lazy singletons at startup, under the lock. + + First-use races used to be possible from both the loop and AnyIO worker + threads; creating the OMS and risk monitor up front means request handlers + only ever read an already-initialized object. + """ + _get_oms() + _get_risk_monitor() + + +async def _stop_with_timeout(label: str, fn, timeout: float) -> None: + try: + await asyncio.wait_for(asyncio.to_thread(fn), timeout=timeout) + except TimeoutError: + logger.error("%s did not finish within %.0fs", label, timeout) + except Exception: + logger.exception("%s failed", label) + + +async def shutdown_api_resources() -> None: + """Stop the live engine, providers and WebSocket clients (bounded). + + Python cannot kill a thread: if `engine.stop()` (or a provider's stop) + hangs past its timeout, the underlying thread keeps running until the + process exits. The bounded wait only guarantees shutdown does not block + the server indefinitely. + """ + global _live_engine, _ws_provider, _l2_provider, _fundamental_provider + + engine = _live_engine + if engine is not None: + await _stop_with_timeout("Live trading engine stop", engine.stop, 15.0) + _live_engine = None + + for name, provider in ( + ("WebSocket quote provider", _ws_provider), + ("Level 2 provider", _l2_provider), + ("Fundamental provider", _fundamental_provider), + ): + stop = getattr(provider, "stop", None) if provider is not None else None + if stop is not None: + await _stop_with_timeout(f"{name} stop", stop, 5.0) + _ws_provider = None + _l2_provider = None + _fundamental_provider = None + + await _close_all_ws_clients() + + diff --git a/api/schemas.py b/api/schemas.py index dced7d1..57c601f 100644 --- a/api/schemas.py +++ b/api/schemas.py @@ -2,14 +2,54 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import itertools +import math import re -from datetime import datetime +from datetime import date, datetime from typing import Any, Literal -from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, field_validator +from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict, Field, field_validator, model_validator _DATE_RE = re.compile(r"^\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}$") +#: Research/sweep windows: bounded like ``RunRequest`` so a caller cannot +#: turn one request into a multi-decade panel (or a 9999-12-31 OOM). +_MIN_REQUEST_DATE = date(2000, 1, 1) +_MAX_REQUEST_DATE = date(2100, 12, 31) +_MAX_REQUEST_SPAN_DAYS = 3653 # 10 years + +#: Parallel-sweep overrides may reach these config roots only. ``data.*`` is +#: rejected (provider/path injection) except the two date keys, which are +#: validated and span-bounded. +_SWEEP_ALLOWED_ROOTS = frozenset({"universe", "portfolio", "backtest", "costs", "alpha"}) +_SWEEP_DATA_DATE_KEYS = frozenset({"data.start_date", "data.end_date"}) +_SWEEP_ENUMS = { + "portfolio.optimizer": frozenset({"equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"}), + "alpha.method": frozenset({"equal_weight", "ic_weighted", "icir_weighted"}), + "backtest.rebalance_frequency": frozenset({"daily", "weekly", "monthly"}), + "portfolio.covariance.method": frozenset({"sample", "ledoit_wolf", "ewma"}), + "costs.slippage_model": frozenset({"fixed", "proportional", "impact"}), +} +_SWEEP_RANGES: dict[str, tuple[float, float]] = { + "universe.n_stocks": (50, 1000), + "portfolio.constraints.max_weight": (0.0, 1.0), + "portfolio.constraints.max_sector_exposure": (0.0, 1.0), + "portfolio.constraints.max_turnover": (0.0, 1.0), + "portfolio.constraints.lot_size": (1, 10_000), + "portfolio.risk_aversion": (0.0, 100.0), + "portfolio.covariance.lookback": (20, 2520), + "portfolio.covariance.ewma_half_life": (5, 504), + "backtest.initial_capital": (10_000.0, 1e12), + "costs.commission": (0.0, 0.01), + "costs.stamp_tax": (0.0, 0.01), + "costs.slippage": (0.0, 0.05), +} +_SWEEP_KEY_PART_RE = re.compile(r"[a-z_][a-z0-9_]*\Z") +_SWEEP_FORBIDDEN_KEY_PARTS = ( + "path", "dir", "file", "url", "dsn", "token", "password", "passwd", + "secret", "credential", "provider", "cache", "host", "port", "proxy", "env", +) + def _validate_date(v: str) -> str: if not _DATE_RE.match(v): @@ -21,6 +61,107 @@ def _validate_date(v: str) -> str: return v +def _parse_bounded_date(value: Any, label: str) -> date: + """A YYYY-MM-DD date inside the supported research range.""" + if not isinstance(value, str) or not _DATE_RE.match(value): + raise ValueError(f"{label} must be a YYYY-MM-DD string") + try: + parsed = date.fromisoformat(value) + except ValueError as exc: + raise ValueError(f"{label} is not a valid date: {exc}") from exc + if not _MIN_REQUEST_DATE <= parsed <= _MAX_REQUEST_DATE: + raise ValueError( + f"{label} must be between {_MIN_REQUEST_DATE.isoformat()} and " + f"{_MAX_REQUEST_DATE.isoformat()}" + ) + return parsed + + +def _default_sweep_window() -> tuple[date, date]: + """The configured data window, used when only one side is overridden.""" + from quant_platform.utils.config import load_config + + config = load_config() + return ( + date.fromisoformat(str(config.data.start_date)), + date.fromisoformat(str(config.data.end_date)), + ) + + +def _check_sweep_date_span(overrides: dict[str, Any]) -> None: + from quant_platform.backtest.distributed import PARAM_ALIASES + + dates: dict[str, date] = {} + for key, value in overrides.items(): + canonical = PARAM_ALIASES.get(key, key) + if canonical in _SWEEP_DATA_DATE_KEYS: + dates[canonical] = _parse_bounded_date(value, canonical) + if not dates: + return + default_start, default_end = _default_sweep_window() + start = dates.get("data.start_date", default_start) + end = dates.get("data.end_date", default_end) + if start >= end: + raise ValueError("start_date must be before end_date") + if (end - start).days > _MAX_REQUEST_SPAN_DAYS: + raise ValueError("date span must be at most 10 years") + + +def _validate_sweep_override(key: Any, value: Any) -> None: + """Validate one parallel-sweep override key/value pair. + + Unknown ``data.*``/path-like keys, non-scalar values and out-of-range + numbers are rejected before any worker process starts (the audit + reproduced ``n_stocks=10,000,000`` and 1900..2100 windows passing + straight through to ``_load_data``). + """ + from quant_platform.backtest.distributed import PARAM_ALIASES + + if not isinstance(key, str): + raise ValueError("sweep override keys must be strings") + canonical = PARAM_ALIASES.get(key, key) + if canonical in _SWEEP_DATA_DATE_KEYS: + _parse_bounded_date(value, canonical) + return + parts = canonical.split(".") + if len(parts) < 2 or not all(_SWEEP_KEY_PART_RE.fullmatch(part) for part in parts): + raise ValueError(f"invalid sweep override key {key!r}") + root = parts[0] + if root == "data": + raise ValueError( + "data.* overrides are not allowed; only data.start_date/data.end_date" + ) + if root not in _SWEEP_ALLOWED_ROOTS: + raise ValueError( + f"sweep override {key!r} must be under one of " + f"{sorted(_SWEEP_ALLOWED_ROOTS)}" + ) + lowered_parts = canonical.lower().split(".") + if any(part in _SWEEP_FORBIDDEN_KEY_PARTS for part in lowered_parts): + raise ValueError(f"sweep override {key!r} is not allowed") + if canonical in _SWEEP_ENUMS: + if not isinstance(value, str) or value not in _SWEEP_ENUMS[canonical]: + raise ValueError( + f"{key!r} must be one of {sorted(_SWEEP_ENUMS[canonical])}" + ) + return + if canonical in _SWEEP_RANGES: + low, high = _SWEEP_RANGES[canonical] + if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance(value, (int, float)): + raise ValueError(f"{key!r} must be a number between {low} and {high}") + number = float(value) + if not math.isfinite(number) or not low <= number <= high: + raise ValueError(f"{key!r} must be between {low} and {high}") + return + if value is None or isinstance(value, (dict, list, tuple)): + raise ValueError(f"{key!r} must be a scalar value") + if isinstance(value, str) and len(value) > 64: + raise ValueError(f"{key!r} value is too long (max 64 characters)") + if isinstance(value, float) and not math.isfinite(value): + raise ValueError(f"{key!r} must be finite") + + + # --- Request schemas --- class RunRequest(BaseModel): @@ -45,22 +186,59 @@ class RunRequest(BaseModel): _validate_start = field_validator("start_date")(classmethod(lambda cls, v: _validate_date(v))) _validate_end = field_validator("end_date")(classmethod(lambda cls, v: _validate_date(v))) + @model_validator(mode="after") + def _bound_the_window(self): + start = datetime.strptime(self.start_date, "%Y-%m-%d") + end = datetime.strptime(self.end_date, "%Y-%m-%d") + if start >= end: + raise ValueError("start_date must be before end_date") + if (end - start).days > 3653: + raise ValueError("date span must be at most 10 years") + return self + class CompareRequest(BaseModel): optimizers: list[Literal["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"]] = Field( - default=["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"] + default=["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"], max_length=3 ) n_stocks: int = Field(default=300, ge=50, le=500) class SweepRequest(BaseModel): optimizers: list[Literal["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"]] = Field( - default=["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"] + default=["equal_weight", "mean_variance", "risk_parity"], max_length=3, ) frequencies: list[Literal["daily", "weekly", "monthly"]] = Field( - default=["monthly", "weekly"] + default=["monthly", "weekly"], max_length=3 ) - n_stocks_list: list[int] = Field(default=[200, 300]) + n_stocks_list: list[int] = Field(default=[200, 300], max_length=5) + + @field_validator("n_stocks_list") + @classmethod + def _bound_universes(cls, values: list[int]) -> list[int]: + for value in values: + if not 50 <= value <= 1000: + raise ValueError("each universe size must be between 50 and 1000") + return values + + @model_validator(mode="after") + def _bound_the_product(self): + """Dedupe and cap the grid: 100k optimizers meant 400k pipeline cells.""" + for name in ("optimizers", "frequencies", "n_stocks_list"): + values = getattr(self, name) + if not values: + raise ValueError(f"{name} must not be empty") + deduped = list(dict.fromkeys(values)) + if len(deduped) != len(values): + setattr(self, name, deduped) + combinations = ( + len(self.optimizers) * len(self.frequencies) * len(self.n_stocks_list) + ) + if combinations > 200: + raise ValueError( + f"sweep expands to {combinations} combinations; the maximum is 200" + ) + return self # --- Response schemas --- @@ -84,6 +262,10 @@ class PerformanceMetrics(BaseModel): n_rebalances: int optimizer: str initial_capital: float + n_optimizer_fallbacks: int = 0 + optimizer_fallback_rate: float = 0.0 + effective_optimizer: str | None = None + n_skipped_rebalances: int = 0 class FactorICItem(BaseModel): @@ -169,7 +351,7 @@ class MonthlyReturns(BaseModel): years: list[str] = Field(default_factory=list) months: list[int] = Field(default_factory=list) - data: list[list[float]] = Field(default_factory=list) + data: list[list[float | None]] = Field(default_factory=list) class ChartData(BaseModel): @@ -216,6 +398,12 @@ class CompareResult(BaseModel): class SweepResult(BaseModel): table: list[dict[str, Any]] best_params: dict[str, Any] | None = None + # Multiple-testing correction for the trial grid (DSR + BH-FDR). All + # optional so the response stays backward compatible for callers that + # only read ``table``/``best_params``. + num_trials: int | None = None + best_dsr: dict[str, Any] | None = None + selection_note: str | None = None class ConfigInfo(BaseModel): @@ -282,6 +470,50 @@ class BarraDecomposeRequest(BaseModel): date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="Date for decomposition (YYYY-MM-DD)") half_life: int = Field(default=252, ge=63, le=504, description="Covariance half-life") shrinkage_target: str = Field(default="identity", description="Shrinkage target") + weights: dict[str, float] | None = Field( + default=None, + description=( + "Portfolio weights by ticker. Defaults to current OMS positions, " + "then to equal weight across the universe. Note that an equal-weight " + "whole-universe portfolio has zero net exposure to every " + "cross-sectionally standardized factor by construction." + ), + ) + + +class WalkForwardRequest(BaseModel): + """POST /api/walkforward body. + + ``run_id`` is optional: the validator runs on the cached research + context, and the field is accepted so the dashboard can keep sending the + run it is displaying. ``start_date``/``end_date`` override the + configured data range for this request (and change the context cache + key). + """ + + run_id: str | None = None + mode: Literal["rolling", "expanding"] = Field( + default="rolling", description="Rolling or expanding train window", + ) + train_period: int = Field(default=504, ge=21, le=2520, description="Train sessions") + test_period: int = Field(default=126, ge=5, le=1260, description="Test sessions") + folds: int | None = Field(default=None, ge=1, le=50, description="Max folds") + start_date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="ISO start date override") + end_date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="ISO end date override") + + +class RiskDecomposeRequest(BaseModel): + """POST /api/risk/decompose body (additive fields over the old run_id).""" + + run_id: str | None = None + weights: dict[str, float] | None = Field( + default=None, description="Portfolio weights; defaults to positions/equal weight", + ) + date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="Exposure date (YYYY-MM-DD)") + half_life: int = Field(default=252, ge=63, le=504) + shrinkage_target: str = Field(default="identity") + start_date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="ISO start date override") + end_date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="ISO end date override") class BarraRiskResponse(BaseModel): @@ -301,10 +533,53 @@ class BarraCovarianceResponse(BaseModel): # --- Parallel backtest schemas --- class ParallelSweepRequest(BaseModel): - param_grid: dict[str, list] = Field(description="Parameter grid: {param_name: [values]}") + model_config = ConfigDict(allow_inf_nan=False) + + param_grid: dict[str, list] = Field( + description=( + "Parameter grid: {name: [values]}. Flat aliases optimizer/" + "n_stocks/alpha_method/rebalance_frequency/covariance_method " + "and dotted config paths (portfolio.optimizer) are supported; " + "unknown keys are rejected before any worker starts." + ), + ) base_overrides: dict[str, Any] = Field(default_factory=dict, description="Base config overrides") - metric: str = Field(default="sharpe_ratio", description="Optimization metric") - max_workers: int | None = Field(default=None, description="Max parallel workers") + metric: str = Field( + default="sharpe_ratio", max_length=64, pattern=r"^[a-z_][a-z0-9_]{0,63}$", + description="Optimization metric", + ) + max_workers: int = Field( + default=4, ge=1, le=4, description="Max parallel workers (hard cap: 4)", + ) + + @model_validator(mode="after") + def _bound_the_grid(self): + if not self.param_grid: + raise ValueError("param_grid must not be empty") + if len(self.param_grid) > 10: + raise ValueError("param_grid may have at most 10 parameters") + combinations = 1 + for values in self.param_grid.values(): + if not isinstance(values, list) or not values: + raise ValueError("each parameter must be a non-empty list of values") + if len(values) > 20: + raise ValueError("each parameter may have at most 20 values") + combinations *= len(values) + if combinations > 100: + raise ValueError("param_grid expands to more than 100 combinations") + + # Every key/value (grid and base) must be a bounded scalar override, + # and every effective combination must keep the date window sane. + for key, value in self.base_overrides.items(): + _validate_sweep_override(key, value) + for key, values in self.param_grid.items(): + for value in values: + _validate_sweep_override(key, value) + for combo in itertools.product(*self.param_grid.values()): + merged = dict(self.base_overrides) + merged.update(dict(zip(self.param_grid.keys(), combo, strict=False))) + _check_sweep_date_span(merged) + return self class ParallelSweepResponse(BaseModel): @@ -336,6 +611,7 @@ class WebSocketStatsResponse(BaseModel): cached_quotes: int message_count: int = 0 last_message_age_s: float | None = None + simulated: bool = False class RealtimeQuoteResponse(BaseModel): @@ -352,12 +628,17 @@ class RealtimeQuoteResponse(BaseModel): bid1_price: float = 0.0 ask1_price: float = 0.0 timestamp: str = "" + source: str = "" + simulated: bool = False # --- Level 2 schemas --- class OrderBookResponse(BaseModel): code: str + timestamp: str = "" + simulated: bool = True + source: str = "simulated" best_bid: float = 0.0 best_ask: float = 0.0 mid_price: float = 0.0 @@ -377,12 +658,16 @@ class TickDataResponse(BaseModel): volume: float amount: float direction: str = "" + simulated: bool = True + source: str = "simulated" class VWAPResponse(BaseModel): code: str vwap: float n_ticks: int + simulated: bool = True + source: str = "simulated" class TradeFlowResponse(BaseModel): @@ -391,6 +676,8 @@ class TradeFlowResponse(BaseModel): sell_volume: float net_flow: float buy_pct: float + simulated: bool = True + source: str = "simulated" class Level2StatsResponse(BaseModel): @@ -398,6 +685,8 @@ class Level2StatsResponse(BaseModel): books_cached: int total_ticks: int running: bool + simulated: bool = True + source: str = "simulated" # --- Fundamental schemas --- @@ -416,10 +705,12 @@ class FundamentalMetricsResponse(BaseModel): debt_ratio: float = 0.0 dividend_yield: float = 0.0 market_cap: float = 0.0 + source: str = "" + is_synthetic: bool = False class FundamentalScreenRequest(BaseModel): - codes: list[str] = Field(description="Stock codes to screen") + codes: list[str] = Field(description="Stock codes to screen", max_length=100) pe_min: float | None = None pe_max: float | None = None pb_min: float | None = None @@ -438,7 +729,7 @@ class FundamentalScreenResponse(BaseModel): class FundamentalRankRequest(BaseModel): - codes: list[str] = Field(description="Stock codes to rank") + codes: list[str] = Field(description="Stock codes to rank", max_length=100) metric: str = Field(default="roe", description="Metric to rank by") ascending: bool = Field(default=False) top_n: int | None = Field(default=None, ge=1) @@ -453,6 +744,8 @@ class FundamentalRankResponse(BaseModel): class ScreenRuleRequest(BaseModel): """A single screening rule from the API request.""" + + model_config = ConfigDict(allow_inf_nan=False) factor: str = Field(..., description="Factor name, e.g. 'pe_ratio'") operator: Literal["gt", "gte", "lt", "lte", "eq", "ne", "between"] = Field( ..., description="Comparison operator" @@ -461,12 +754,17 @@ class ScreenRuleRequest(BaseModel): class ScreenRequest(BaseModel): - rules: list[ScreenRuleRequest] = Field(..., description="List of screening rules") + rules: list[ScreenRuleRequest] = Field( + ..., description="List of screening rules", max_length=20, + ) logic: Literal["and", "or"] = Field(default="and", description="Rule combination logic") date: str | None = Field(default=None, description="Target date YYYY-MM-DD (latest if None)") min_stocks: int = Field(default=5, ge=1, le=500, description="Minimum stocks (auto-relax)") max_stocks: int = Field(default=200, ge=1, le=1000, description="Maximum stocks (score cap)") - config: str | None = Field(default=None, description="Config file path") + config: str | None = Field( + default=None, + description="Optional config path resolved inside the server config/ directory", + ) class ScreenStockInfo(BaseModel): diff --git a/app.py b/app.py index 0b2afdd..38122f2 100644 --- a/app.py +++ b/app.py @@ -12,8 +12,15 @@ from __future__ import annotations import argparse +import asyncio +import json +import logging import os +import re +import secrets import sys +import time +from contextlib import asynccontextmanager from pathlib import Path # Ensure the parent directory is importable @@ -32,31 +39,828 @@ _FRONTEND_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "frontend" _DIST_DIR = _FRONTEND_DIR / "dist" +#: Hard cap for request bodies. Parsing happens inside FastAPI/Starlette, so +#: the limit must be enforced before the app sees the stream. 10 MB is well +#: above every documented request (holdings imports and parallel grids are +#: the largest) while bounding memory a single client can pin. +_MAX_REQUEST_BODY_BYTES = 10 * 1024 * 1024 + +#: Bodies larger than this are authorized *before* buffering so an +#: unauthenticated client cannot make the server allocate 10 MB per request. +_EARLY_AUTH_BYTES = 64 * 1024 + +#: Protected document routes (kept in sync with APITokenMiddleware). +_PROTECTED_DOCS = frozenset({ + "/docs", "/redoc", "/docs/oauth2-redirect", "/openapi.json", + "/api/docs", "/api/redoc", +}) + +#: Expensive compute endpoints get a simple per-client token bucket. The +#: analytics pool already rejects concurrent saturation with 429; this stops +#: one client from queueing a rapid-fire series that keeps the pool busy. +_RATE_LIMITED_PATHS = frozenset({ + "/api/run", + "/api/compare", + "/api/sweep", + "/api/parallel/sweep", + "/api/walkforward", + "/api/montecarlo", + "/api/risk/decompose", + "/api/barra/decompose", + "/api/barra/covariance", + "/api/ml/train", + "/api/ml/predict", + "/api/ic-monitor/compute", + "/api/data/quality", + "/api/report/html", + "/api/screen", + "/api/fundamentals/screen", + "/api/fundamentals/bulk", + "/api/fundamentals/rank", + "/api/portfolio/import", + "/api/oms/order", + "/api/oms/fill", + "/api/trading/order", +}) +# These GET endpoints build/reuse the heavy research context; without a +# bucket they bypass the compute admission control entirely. +_RATE_LIMITED_GET_PATHS = frozenset({ + "/api/analysis/ic-decay", + "/api/analysis/correlation", + "/api/monitor/risk-overview", + "/api/monitor/tca-summary", + "/api/monitor/factor-status", + "/api/monitor/capacity-gauge", +}) +_RATE_LIMIT_CAPACITY = 20.0 # burst +_RATE_LIMIT_REFILL_PER_SECOND = 1.0 + + +def _scope_header(scope, name: str) -> str | None: + """Case-insensitive ASGI header lookup. + + Starlette 0.40's ``Headers.__getitem__`` compares raw header bytes + case-sensitively, so a hand-built scope (or a server that preserves case) + can hide ``Content-Length``. The security checks must not depend on that. + """ + wanted = name.lower().encode("latin-1") + for header_name, value in scope.get("headers") or []: + if header_name.lower() == wanted: + return value.decode("latin-1") + return None + + +async def _send_json( + send, status: int, payload: dict, headers: dict[str, str] | None = None, +) -> None: + """Send a minimal JSON response from a pure-ASGI middleware.""" + body = json.dumps(payload).encode("utf-8") + raw_headers = [ + (b"content-type", b"application/json"), + (b"content-length", str(len(body)).encode("ascii")), + ] + for name, value in (headers or {}).items(): + raw_headers.append((name.encode("latin-1"), value.encode("latin-1"))) + await send({"type": "http.response.start", "status": status, "headers": raw_headers}) + await send({"type": "http.response.body", "body": body}) + + +#: Hostnames are compared as ASCII labels; unicode hosts must arrive as punycode. +_HOST_LABEL_RE = re.compile(r"[A-Za-z0-9_](?:[A-Za-z0-9_-]*[A-Za-z0-9_])?\Z") +_IPV6_LITERAL_RE = re.compile(r"[0-9A-Fa-f:.]+\Z") + + +def _scope_host(scope) -> str: + """Raw Host header from the ASGI scope ('' when absent).""" + for name, value in scope.get("headers") or []: + if name.lower() == b"host": + return value.decode("latin-1") + return "" + + +def _valid_host_header(value: str) -> bool: + """Whether ``value`` is a well-formed ``host`` or ``host:port``. + + Starlette 0.40's bad-host parsing (GHSA-86qp-5c8j-p5mr) let + ``Host: x/..`` rewrite the URL path and strip the auth prefix. Only a + syntactically valid host reaches the application; anything containing + path delimiters, credentials, whitespace/control characters, ``..`` or + malformed ports is rejected before routing. + """ + if not value or len(value) > 255: + return False + if any(ord(ch) < 0x21 or ord(ch) > 0x7E for ch in value): + return False + if any(ch in value for ch in "/\\@?#,;%"): + return False + if ".." in value: + return False + port = "" + if value.startswith("["): + end = value.find("]") + if end < 0: + return False + inner = value[1:end] + rest = value[end + 1:] + if rest: + if not rest.startswith(":") or not rest[1:].isdigit(): + return False + port = rest[1:] + if not inner or not _IPV6_LITERAL_RE.fullmatch(inner): + return False + else: + host = value + if host.count(":") > 1: + return False + if ":" in host: + host, _, port = host.partition(":") + if not host or len(host) > 253: + return False + labels = host[:-1].split(".") if host.endswith(".") else host.split(".") + for label in labels: + if not label or len(label) > 63 or not _HOST_LABEL_RE.fullmatch(label): + return False + if not port: + return True + return port.isdigit() and 0 < int(port) <= 65535 + + +def _host_name(value: str) -> str: + """Host part of a Host header, lowercased, without the port.""" + if value.startswith("["): + end = value.find("]") + return value[1:end].lower() if end > 0 else "" + return (value.rsplit(":", 1)[0] if ":" in value else value).lower() + + +def _host_is_loopback(value: str) -> bool: + """Whether a Host header names the local machine. + + DNS rebinding connects to 127.0.0.1 from a page whose Host/Origin is an + attacker domain, so the token-less loopback bypass must also require a + loopback Host name (or an explicit QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS entry). + """ + host = _host_name(value) + if host in {"localhost", "127.0.0.1", "::1", "testserver"}: + return True + try: + import ipaddress + + return ipaddress.ip_address(host).is_loopback + except ValueError: + return False + + +def _host_is_allowed(value: str) -> bool: + """Optional ``QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS`` allowlist (default: any valid host). + + Comma-separated hostnames, case-insensitive; ``*.example.com`` matches + subdomains and ``*`` disables the allowlist. The port is ignored. + """ + raw = os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "") + entries = [entry.strip().lower().rstrip(".") for entry in raw.split(",") if entry.strip()] + if not entries: + return True + host = _host_name(value).rstrip(".") + for entry in entries: + if entry == "*" or host == entry: + return True + if entry.startswith("*.") and host.endswith(entry[1:]): + return True + return False + + +#: Default ports per URL scheme, used to normalize Origin/Host comparisons so +#: ``http://host`` and ``http://host:80`` are the same origin. +_DEFAULT_PORTS = {"http": 80, "https": 443} + +#: WebSocket handshake schemes are compared as their HTTP equivalent: a +#: browser's ``Origin`` is always an http(s) origin. +_SCHEME_TO_HTTP = {"http": "http", "https": "https", "ws": "http", "wss": "https"} + +#: A serialized origin is exactly ``scheme://authority``; browsers never send +#: a path/query/fragment. One trailing slash is tolerated (a common curl +#: habit) and stripped, but ``/path``, ``?query`` and ``#fragment`` are not. +_ORIGIN_RE = re.compile(r"(?i)\A(https?)://([^/?#]+)/?\Z") + + +def _split_host_port(value: str, default_port: int) -> tuple[str, int] | None: + """Lowercased host and numeric port from ``host[:port]``/``[v6][:port]``.""" + if value.startswith("["): + end = value.find("]") + if end < 0: + return None + host = value[1:end] + rest = value[end + 1:] + if rest: + if not rest.startswith(":") or not rest[1:].isdigit(): + return None + port = int(rest[1:]) + else: + port = default_port + else: + if value.count(":") > 1: + return None + if ":" in value: + host, _, raw_port = value.partition(":") + if not raw_port.isdigit(): + return None + port = int(raw_port) + else: + host, port = value, default_port + if not host or not 0 < port <= 65535: + return None + # A fully-qualified trailing dot is the same DNS name; normalize it so + # ``Host: example.com.`` and ``Origin: http://example.com`` compare equal. + return host.lower().rstrip("."), port + + +def _parse_origin(value: str) -> tuple[str, str, int] | None: + """Parse an ``Origin`` header into a normalized ``(scheme, host, port)``. + + ``None`` covers everything that is not a plain serialized http(s) origin: + ``null`` (opaque origin), malformed authorities, wildcards, userinfo, + paths and unknown schemes. Such values are never treated as same-origin. + """ + match = _ORIGIN_RE.fullmatch((value or "").strip()) + if not match: + return None + scheme = match.group(1).lower() + authority = match.group(2) + if not _valid_host_header(authority): + return None + split = _split_host_port(authority, _DEFAULT_PORTS[scheme]) + if split is None: + return None + return (scheme, split[0], split[1]) + + +def _allowed_origins() -> set[tuple[str, str, int]]: + """``QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS`` parsed into normalized origins. + + Comma-separated exact origins, case-insensitive. Wildcards are not + supported and are ignored (they can never match); malformed entries are + skipped rather than widening the set. + """ + raw = os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS", "") + allowed: set[tuple[str, str, int]] = set() + for entry in raw.split(","): + parsed = _parse_origin(entry) + if parsed is not None: + allowed.add(parsed) + return allowed + + +def _origin_values(scope) -> list[str]: + """All ``Origin`` header values, preserving duplicates for rejection.""" + return [ + value.decode("latin-1") + for name, value in scope.get("headers") or [] + if name.lower() == b"origin" + ] + + +def _origin_is_allowed(scope) -> bool: + """CSRF gate for HTTP requests and WebSocket handshakes. + + Requests without an ``Origin`` (curl, server-to-server, older clients) + pass. A present ``Origin`` must be same-origin with the validated ``Host`` + (scheme http/https after mapping ws->http/wss->https, host and port + compared after default-port normalization) or listed verbatim in + ``QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS``. The decision uses the raw Host header and the + ASGI scheme only -- ``X-Forwarded-*`` is deliberately ignored, so a forged + forwarding header cannot manufacture a same-origin match. + """ + values = _origin_values(scope) + if not values: + return True + # Duplicate Origin headers are malformed (Fetch produces at most one) and + # could make a proxy and the app disagree; reject rather than guess. + if len(values) != 1: + return False + origin = _parse_origin(values[0]) + if origin is None: + return False + if origin in _allowed_origins(): + return True + scheme = _SCHEME_TO_HTTP.get((scope.get("scheme") or "").lower()) + host = _scope_host(scope) + if scheme is None or not host: + return False + request_origin = _split_host_port(host, _DEFAULT_PORTS[scheme]) + if request_origin is None: + return False + if origin == (scheme, request_origin[0], request_origin[1]): + return True + # localhost and 127.0.0.1 (or ::1) are the same machine: a page opened at + # http://localhost may legitimately connect its WebSocket to 127.0.0.1 + # because the server binds IPv4 only. Both ends must still be loopback. + return ( + origin[0] == scheme + and origin[2] == request_origin[1] + and _host_is_loopback(origin[1]) + and _host_is_loopback(request_origin[0]) + ) + + +def _requires_auth(scope) -> bool: + """Whether the request targets a protected /api or docs route.""" + path = _normalized_route_path(scope) + if path is None: + return True + if path in _PROTECTED_DOCS: + return True + return ( + (path == "/api" or path.startswith("/api/")) and path != "/api/health" + ) + + +def _quick_authorized(scope) -> bool: + """Cheap credential check used before buffering a large request body. + + Mirrors APITokenMiddleware (token compares are timing-safe; token-less + mode additionally requires a loopback Host to defeat DNS rebinding). + """ + token = os.environ.get("QUANT_API_TOKEN", "") + if token: + token_bytes = token.encode("utf-8") + auth = (_scope_header(scope, "authorization") or "").encode("utf-8") + key = (_scope_header(scope, "x-api-key") or "").encode("utf-8") + return secrets.compare_digest(key, token_bytes) or secrets.compare_digest( + auth, f"Bearer {token}".encode(), + ) + peer = (scope.get("client") or ("", 0))[0] + host = _scope_host(scope) + host_ok = _host_is_loopback(host) or ( + bool(os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "").strip()) + and _host_is_allowed(host) + ) + return ( + peer in ("127.0.0.1", "::1", "localhost", "testclient") and host_ok + ) + + +def _normalized_route_path(scope) -> str | None: + """Normalize ``scope["path"]`` for the authorization decision. + + Never use ``request.url.path``: on Starlette 0.40 a crafted Host header + re-parses the URL and yields ``/../api/config`` while routing still matched + ``/api/config``. The ASGI ``path`` is what the router matches; it is + adjusted here for ``root_path`` deployments and collapsed (duplicate + slashes, ``.`` segments, trailing slash). ``None`` means the path is + ambiguous (dot-dot segments, percent-encoded or backslash/NUL bytes) and + the request must be denied. + """ + path = scope.get("path") or "/" + root = (scope.get("root_path") or "").rstrip("/") + if root and path.startswith(root) and ( + len(path) == len(root) or path[len(root):len(root) + 1] == "/" + ): + path = path[len(root):] or "/" + if "%" in path or "\\" in path or "\x00" in path: + return None + segments = [] + for segment in path.split("/"): + if segment in ("", "."): + continue + if segment.startswith(".."): + return None + if any(ord(ch) < 0x20 or ord(ch) == 0x7F for ch in segment): + return None + segments.append(segment) + return "/" + "/".join(segments) + + +class RequestGuardMiddleware: + """Outermost, pure-ASGI guard: Host, Origin (CSRF), body cap, rate limit. + + It runs before routing, static files, docs, metrics and authentication, so + a malformed Host can never reach the router (the P0 was that the auth + middleware and the router disagreed about the path), a browser request + from an untrusted Origin is rejected before any state can change, a giant + body is rejected before it is parsed, and one client cannot hammer + expensive compute endpoints. Pure ASGI, so it also covers WebSocket + handshakes, which ``BaseHTTPMiddleware`` never sees. + """ + + def __init__(self, app): + self.app = app + self._buckets: dict[str, list[float]] = {} + + def _rate_limited(self, scope, path: str) -> tuple[bool, float]: + method = scope.get("method") + applies = ( + (method == "POST" and path in _RATE_LIMITED_PATHS) + or (method == "GET" and path in _RATE_LIMITED_GET_PATHS) + ) + if applies and method == "GET": + # The local dashboard loads several research panels per view and + # a couple of reloads could exhaust a 20-token bucket. Loopback + # clients with a loopback Host are the trusted local UI (remote + # clients and DNS-rebound hosts are not exempt). + peer = (scope.get("client") or ("", 0))[0] + host = _scope_host(scope) + if peer in ("127.0.0.1", "::1", "localhost", "testclient") and ( + _host_is_loopback(host) + or ( + os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "").strip() + and _host_is_allowed(host) + ) + ): + return False, 0.0 + if not applies: + return False, 0.0 + client = scope.get("client") + key = client[0] if client else "unknown" + now = time.monotonic() + bucket = self._buckets.get(key) + if bucket is None: + if len(self._buckets) > 1024: # bound per-instance state + self._buckets.clear() + bucket = [_RATE_LIMIT_CAPACITY, now] + self._buckets[key] = bucket + tokens = min( + _RATE_LIMIT_CAPACITY, + bucket[0] + (now - bucket[1]) * _RATE_LIMIT_REFILL_PER_SECOND, + ) + bucket[0], bucket[1] = tokens, now + if tokens >= 1.0: + bucket[0] = tokens - 1.0 + return False, 0.0 + return True, (1.0 - tokens) / _RATE_LIMIT_REFILL_PER_SECOND + + async def __call__(self, scope, receive, send): + scope_type = scope.get("type") + if scope_type not in ("http", "websocket"): + await self.app(scope, receive, send) + return + + host = _scope_host(scope) + host_allowlist_configured = bool( + os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "").strip() + ) + if (not host and host_allowlist_configured) or ( + host and (not _valid_host_header(host) or not _host_is_allowed(host)) + ): + if scope_type == "websocket": + await send({"type": "websocket.close", "code": 1008}) + else: + await _send_json( + send, 403, {"detail": "Invalid or untrusted Host header"}, + ) + return + + # CSRF gate: a browser-supplied Origin must be same-origin with the + # validated Host or explicitly allowlisted. Runs before routing and + # authentication, for HTTP and the WebSocket handshake alike. CORS + # preflights are exempt: CORSMiddleware enforces its own origin + # allowlist for them and an OPTIONS request never reaches a handler. + is_preflight = scope_type == "http" and scope.get("method") == "OPTIONS" + if not is_preflight and not _origin_is_allowed(scope): + if scope_type == "websocket": + await send({"type": "websocket.close", "code": 1008}) + else: + await _send_json(send, 403, {"detail": "Origin not allowed"}) + return + + if scope_type == "websocket": + await self.app(scope, receive, send) + return + + path = _normalized_route_path(scope) + is_docs_page = path in _PROTECTED_DOCS + if path is not None: + limited, retry_after = self._rate_limited(scope, path) + if limited: + wait = max(1, int(round(retry_after))) + await _send_json( + send, + 429, + { + "detail": "Rate limit exceeded for a compute endpoint", + "retry_after_s": wait, + }, + headers={"Retry-After": str(wait)}, + ) + return + + content_length = _scope_header(scope, "content-length") + if content_length is not None: + try: + declared = int(content_length) + except ValueError: + await _send_json(send, 400, {"detail": "Invalid Content-Length"}) + return + if declared < 0: + await _send_json(send, 400, {"detail": "Invalid Content-Length"}) + return + if declared > _MAX_REQUEST_BODY_BYTES: + await _send_json( + send, + 413, + {"detail": f"Request body exceeds {_MAX_REQUEST_BODY_BYTES} bytes"}, + ) + return + if ( + declared > _EARLY_AUTH_BYTES + and _requires_auth(scope) + and not _quick_authorized(scope) + ): + await _send_json( + send, + 401 if os.environ.get("QUANT_API_TOKEN") else 403, + {"detail": "Authentication required"}, + ) + return + + # Buffer the body up to the cap, then replay it downstream. A lazy + # receive-wrapper cannot work here: FastAPI converts any exception + # raised while parsing the body into a generic 400, so a streaming + # oversize body would not surface as 413. + chunks: list[bytes] = [] + received = 0 + while True: + message = await receive() + if message.get("type") != "http.request": + break + chunk = message.get("body", b"") + received += len(chunk) + if ( + received > _EARLY_AUTH_BYTES + and _requires_auth(scope) + and not _quick_authorized(scope) + ): + await _send_json( + send, + 401 if os.environ.get("QUANT_API_TOKEN") else 403, + {"detail": "Authentication required"}, + ) + return + if received > _MAX_REQUEST_BODY_BYTES: + await _send_json( + send, + 413, + {"detail": f"Request body exceeds {_MAX_REQUEST_BODY_BYTES} bytes"}, + ) + return + chunks.append(chunk) + if not message.get("more_body", False): + break + buffered = b"".join(chunks) + replayed = False + + async def replay_receive(): + nonlocal replayed + if not replayed: + replayed = True + return { + "type": "http.request", + "body": buffered, + "more_body": False, + } + return await receive() + + async def send_with_security_headers(message): + if message.get("type") == "http.response.start": + headers = list(message.get("headers") or []) + present = {name.lower() for name, _ in headers} + content_type = b"" + for name, value in headers: + if name.lower() == b"content-type": + content_type = value.lower() + break + extra = [ + (b"x-content-type-options", b"nosniff"), + (b"x-frame-options", b"DENY"), + (b"referrer-policy", b"same-origin"), + ] + if b"text/html" in content_type and not is_docs_page: + extra.append(( + b"content-security-policy", + b"default-src 'self'; script-src 'self'; " + b"style-src 'self' 'unsafe-inline' " + b"https://fonts.googleapis.com; " + b"font-src 'self' data: https://fonts.gstatic.com; " + b"img-src 'self' data:; connect-src 'self' ws: wss:; " + b"object-src 'none'; base-uri 'self'; " + b"frame-ancestors 'none'", + )) + for name, value in extra: + if name not in present: + headers.append((name, value)) + message = {**message, "headers": headers} + await send(message) + + await self.app(scope, replay_receive, send_with_security_headers) + class APITokenMiddleware(BaseHTTPMiddleware): - """Require a bearer token for /api routes when QUANT_API_TOKEN is set.""" + """Require a token (or loopback) for every non-health API route. + + When no token is configured, EVERY /api route is loopback-only, not just + the trading/OMS subset: the shipped default (`main.py web` binds 0.0.0.0) + let remote anonymous clients read orders, trades, signals, audit rows and + trigger every compute endpoint. Health stays public for probes. + + The authorization decision uses the ASGI ``scope["path"]`` (normalized for + ``root_path``), never ``request.url.path``: on Starlette 0.40 a Host header + containing a path segment (``Host: x/..``, GHSA-86qp-5c8j-p5mr) rewrote the + parsed URL path while the router still matched ``/api/...``, bypassing this + entire gate in token and loopback-only modes alike. + """ + + PUBLIC_PATHS = { + "/api/health", + } + DOC_PATHS = { + "/docs", "/redoc", "/docs/oauth2-redirect", "/openapi.json", + "/api/docs", "/api/redoc", + } + LOOPBACK_HOSTS = ("127.0.0.1", "::1", "localhost", "testclient") async def dispatch(self, request: Request, call_next): + # Let CORS answer preflight; otherwise the browser sees a 401 without + # CORS headers and the documented dev flow cannot use a token. + if request.method == "OPTIONS": + return await call_next(request) + token = os.environ.get("QUANT_API_TOKEN", "") - path = request.url.path - if token and path.startswith("/api") and path != "/api/health": - auth = request.headers.get("Authorization", "") - api_key = request.headers.get("X-API-Key", "") - if api_key != token and auth != f"Bearer {token}": - return JSONResponse(status_code=401, content={"detail": "Invalid or missing API token"}) + path = _normalized_route_path(request.scope) + if path is None: + return JSONResponse( + status_code=400, + content={"detail": "Ambiguous request path"}, + ) + protected = ( + (path == "/api" or path.startswith("/api/")) + and path not in self.PUBLIC_PATHS + ) or path in self.DOC_PATHS + if protected: + if token: + auth = _scope_header(request.scope, "authorization") or "" + api_key = _scope_header(request.scope, "x-api-key") or "" + # Compare bytes: compare_digest(str, str) raises TypeError for + # non-ASCII tokens, and env tokens are not charset-restricted. + token_bytes = token.encode("utf-8") + if not ( + secrets.compare_digest(api_key.encode("utf-8"), token_bytes) + or secrets.compare_digest( + auth.encode("utf-8"), + f"Bearer {token}".encode(), + ) + ): + return JSONResponse( + status_code=401, + content={"detail": "Invalid or missing API token"}, + ) + else: + peer = request.client.host if request.client else "" + host_header = _scope_host(request.scope) + host_ok = _host_is_loopback(host_header) + if ( + not host_ok + and os.environ.get("QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS", "").strip() + ): + host_ok = _host_is_allowed(host_header) + if peer not in self.LOOPBACK_HOSTS or not host_ok: + return JSONResponse( + status_code=403, + content={ + "detail": ( + "No QUANT_API_TOKEN configured: all API routes " + "are loopback-only (and the Host must be a " + "loopback name). Set the token to allow " + "remote access." + ) + }, + ) return await call_next(request) +@asynccontextmanager +async def _lifespan(_app: FastAPI): + """Run the event bus for the lifetime of the application. + + The bus is a process-wide singleton, but nothing ever started it. Without + consumer loops every publish fell back to inline synchronous delivery, + async handlers were skipped, and dead-letter retry never ran. + + Shutdown used to stop only the bus. The live trading engine, the market + providers, connected WebSocket clients, the non-daemon executor threads + and the SQLite connections were all abandoned, so an in-flight pipeline + kept the process alive until it finished (or was SIGKILLed) and the + engine's final session/NAV writes were lost. + """ + from quant_platform.api import routes as api_routes + from quant_platform.core.events import get_event_bus + from quant_platform.risk.healthcheck import install_alert_handler + + # Executors were shut down by a previous lifespan exit; recreate them and + # pre-build the critical singletons before any request can race them. + api_routes.ensure_executors() + api_routes.initialize_singletons() + + bus = get_event_bus() + # S4: health-check failures and system alerts get a production handler + # that logs and forwards them to the alert sink (idempotent per bus). + install_alert_handler(bus) + await bus.start() + try: + yield + finally: + await _shutdown_resources(api_routes, bus) + + +async def _bounded_await(label: str, awaitable, timeout: float) -> None: + """Await a shutdown step, logging instead of hanging the process.""" + try: + await asyncio.wait_for(awaitable, timeout=timeout) + except TimeoutError: + logging.getLogger(__name__).error( + "%s did not finish within %.0fs; continuing shutdown", label, timeout, + ) + except Exception: + logging.getLogger(__name__).exception("%s failed", label) + + +async def _shutdown_resources(api_routes, bus) -> None: + log = logging.getLogger(__name__) + # 1. Engine, market providers, WebSocket clients (bounded inside). + await _bounded_await( + "API resource shutdown", api_routes.shutdown_api_resources(), 30.0, + ) + # 2. Executors: cancel queued work, wait (bounded) for running work. + # Python cannot kill a running thread; a multi-minute pipeline keeps + # its thread until it returns, but the server no longer waits forever. + await _bounded_await( + "Executor shutdown", + asyncio.to_thread(api_routes.shutdown_executors), + 10.0, + ) + # 3. Event bus: stop consumer loops. `stop()` cancels consumers and drops + # queued events by design (event_bus_v2); the timeout only bounds it. + await _bounded_await("EventBus stop", bus.stop(), 5.0) + # 4. Close the process-wide SQLite connections (reopened lazily if the + # store is used again in the same process, e.g. repeated lifespans). + try: + api_routes._core_store.close() + except Exception: + log.exception("Store close failed") + try: + from quant_platform.api import monitor as monitor_module + monitor_store = monitor_module._core_store + if monitor_store is not None and monitor_store is not api_routes._core_store: + monitor_store.close() + except Exception: + log.exception("Monitor store close failed") + + +def _json_safe(value): + """Replace non-finite floats so Starlette's strict encoder accepts them. + + Pydantic v2 puts the original exception object in ``ctx.error`` for + ``model_validator`` failures; that made the 422 body itself fail to + serialise (an empty optimizer list returned a 500). Exceptions and any + other non-JSON object become strings. + """ + import math + + if isinstance(value, dict): + return {str(k): _json_safe(v) for k, v in value.items()} + if isinstance(value, (list, tuple)): + return [_json_safe(v) for v in value] + if isinstance(value, float) and not math.isfinite(value): + return None + if isinstance(value, BaseException): + return str(value) + if value is None or isinstance(value, (str, int, float, bool)): + return value + return str(value) + + def create_app(serve_frontend: bool = True) -> FastAPI: """Create and configure the FastAPI application.""" app = FastAPI( title="A-Share Multi-Factor Quant Platform", description="Multi-factor quantitative research platform with LLM-enhanced stock selection", version="1.0.0", + lifespan=_lifespan, docs_url="/api/docs" if serve_frontend else "/docs", redoc_url="/api/redoc" if serve_frontend else "/redoc", ) + # Pydantic's validation detail echoes the offending input. For NaN/Inf + # that made the 422 response itself unserialisable, so a bad request + # became a 500. + from fastapi.exceptions import RequestValidationError + + @app.exception_handler(RequestValidationError) + async def _validation_error_handler(_request: Request, exc: RequestValidationError): + return JSONResponse( + status_code=422, + content={"detail": _json_safe(exc.errors())}, + ) + # CORS for frontend dev server app.add_middleware( CORSMiddleware, @@ -66,13 +870,37 @@ def create_app(serve_frontend: bool = True) -> FastAPI: allow_headers=["*"], ) app.add_middleware(APITokenMiddleware) + # Prometheus request counters/latency. The Grafana dashboard queried + # api_requests_total/api_duration_seconds, but nothing ever recorded them. + from quant_platform.utils.metrics import install_http_middleware + + install_http_middleware(app) + # Outermost guard (Starlette inserts middleware at position 0, so this is + # the first code to run): Host validation before routing/static/docs, the + # request-body cap before parsing, and the compute rate limit. Security + # middleware must run before any handler that could reflect input. + app.add_middleware(RequestGuardMiddleware) # API routes app.include_router(api_router) app.include_router(monitor_router) - # Serve frontend static files in production + # Serve frontend static files in production. Warn loudly when the bundle + # is older than the source: serving a stale dist silently shipped removed + # client-side fabrications back to users. if serve_frontend and _DIST_DIR.exists(): + index = _DIST_DIR / "index.html" + source_dir = _FRONTEND_DIR / "src" + if index.exists() and source_dir.exists(): + newest_source = max( + (path.stat().st_mtime for path in source_dir.rglob("*") if path.is_file()), + default=0.0, + ) + if newest_source > index.stat().st_mtime: + logging.getLogger(__name__).warning( + "frontend/dist is older than frontend/src -- serving a " + "stale bundle. Run `npm run build` in frontend/.", + ) app.mount("/", StaticFiles(directory=str(_DIST_DIR), html=True), name="frontend") return app diff --git a/backtest/capacity.py b/backtest/capacity.py index 274395b..299c98c 100644 --- a/backtest/capacity.py +++ b/backtest/capacity.py @@ -40,6 +40,18 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +def default_volatility(returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Causal daily volatility from the platform's forward-return panel. + + ``returns[t]`` is the close(t)->close(t+1) return, so at execution day t + only rows up to t-1 are realized. The rolling window is therefore shifted + by one session before use; without the shift the impact model at day t + read a volatility that included day t's own (future) return. Missing + warm-up values fall back to the 2%/day default the estimator always used. + """ + return returns.rolling(20, min_periods=5).std().shift(1).fillna(0.02) + + @dataclass class CapacityResult: """Capacity estimation result for a single AUM level.""" @@ -144,7 +156,10 @@ def estimate( returns: (date x asset) daily returns. benchmark_returns: Benchmark daily returns for Sharpe calculation. aum_range: List of AUM levels to test. Default: [1M, 5M, 10M, 50M, 100M, 500M, 1B]. - volatility: (date x asset) daily volatility. If None, estimated from returns. + volatility: (date x asset) daily volatility. If None, estimated + causally from ``returns`` (``rolling(20).std().shift(1)``: + row t uses only returns up to t-1). A caller-supplied panel + must already be causal -- the estimator does not shift it. Returns: CapacityCurve with results for each AUM level. @@ -153,7 +168,7 @@ def estimate( aum_range = [1e6, 5e6, 1e7, 5e7, 1e8, 5e8, 1e9] if volatility is None: - volatility = returns.rolling(20, min_periods=5).std().fillna(0.02) + volatility = default_volatility(returns) rebalance_dates = sorted(weights_history.keys()) all_dates = returns.index.sort_values() @@ -225,17 +240,28 @@ def _run_at_aum( total_impact_bps = 0.0 total_turnover = 0.0 - rebalance_iter = iter(rebalance_dates) - next_rdate = next(rebalance_iter, None) + # Execute at the NEXT trading day's close, matching + # BacktestEngine._execution_schedule. Applying the target on the signal + # date itself captured the move the engine deliberately excludes. + schedule = [] + for rdate in rebalance_dates: + later = all_dates[all_dates > rdate] + if len(later): + schedule.append((later[0], rdate)) + schedule_idx = 0 for date in all_dates: - if next_rdate is not None and date >= next_rdate: + day_cost_rate = 0.0 + day_impact_rate = 0.0 + if schedule_idx < len(schedule) and date >= schedule[schedule_idx][0]: + _exec_date, next_rdate = schedule[schedule_idx] target_weights = weights_history.get(next_rdate, current_weights) target_weights = target_weights.reindex(returns.columns, fill_value=0.0) # Compute trade notional trade_weights = target_weights - current_weights trade_notional = trade_weights * capital + executed_weights = target_weights.copy() # Apply participation rate cap capped_impact = 0.0 @@ -253,60 +279,82 @@ def _run_at_aum( participation_rates.append(participation) if participation > self.max_participation: - # Cap the trade + # Actually cap the trade: the old code only + # recorded an impact number and still put the + # full target into `current_weights`, so the + # reported returns were identical at every AUM. capped_days += 1 max_trade = vol_cny * self.max_participation + scale = max_trade / trade_cny + executed_weights[asset] = ( + current_weights.get(asset, 0.0) + + trade_weights.get(asset, 0.0) * scale + ) - # Extra impact cost for the capped portion + # Extra impact cost for the deferred portion. + # `impact.total` is a per-share cost, so it + # must be multiplied by the share count; the + # old code added it as if it were currency. excess = trade_cny - max_trade vol_val = volatility.loc[date].get(asset, 0.02) if date in volatility.index else 0.02 price_val = prc.get(asset, 100) + shares = int(excess / max(price_val, 1)) impact = self.impact_model.estimate( - order_quantity=int(excess / max(price_val, 1)), + order_quantity=shares, market_volume=int(vol_cny / max(price_val, 1)), volatility=vol_val, price=price_val, ) - capped_impact += impact.total + capped_impact += impact.total * shares - # Standard turnover cost - turnover = abs(trade_weights).sum() / 2 + # Standard turnover cost on what was actually executed + executed_trade = executed_weights - current_weights + turnover = abs(executed_trade).sum() / 2 total_turnover += turnover # Two-way traded value: compute_costs halves stamp tax on the # assumption that half of its input is sells, so it needs # buys + sells, not the one-sided turnover kept above. cost_rate = self.cost_model.compute_costs(turnover * 2) + day_cost_rate = cost_rate capital -= cost_rate * capital # Extra impact cost if capped_impact > 0 and capital > 0: impact_bps = (capped_impact / capital) * 10000 total_impact_bps += impact_bps + day_impact_rate = capped_impact / capital capital -= capped_impact - current_weights = target_weights.copy() - next_rdate = next(rebalance_iter, None) + current_weights = executed_weights + schedule_idx += 1 - # Daily P&L + # Daily P&L, with weights drifting between rebalances. Costs are + # liabilities of the day they are paid, so the reported return is + # net of them -- the old series was gross and the AUM curve was + # identical at every capital level. daily_ret_assets = returns.loc[date].reindex(current_weights.index, fill_value=0.0) portfolio_return = (current_weights * daily_ret_assets).sum() - daily_returns_list.append(portfolio_return) - capital = capital * (1 + portfolio_return) - - # Compute metrics + net_return = portfolio_return - day_cost_rate - day_impact_rate + daily_returns_list.append(net_return) + capital = capital * (1 + net_return) + + if current_weights.sum() > 1e-12: + growth = current_weights * (1.0 + daily_ret_assets.fillna(0.0)) + cash_weight = max(0.0, 1.0 - float(current_weights.sum())) + total_value = float(growth.sum()) + cash_weight + if total_value > 1e-12: + current_weights = growth / total_value + + # Compute metrics with the same definitions as the backtest summary daily_returns = pd.Series(daily_returns_list, index=all_dates) - if len(daily_returns) > 0 and daily_returns.std() > 0: - ann_return = float(daily_returns.mean() * 252) - ann_vol = float(daily_returns.std() * math.sqrt(252)) - sharpe = ann_return / ann_vol if ann_vol > 0 else 0 - total_ret = float((1 + daily_returns).prod() - 1) - max_dd = float((daily_returns.cumsum() - daily_returns.cumsum().cummax()).min()) - else: - ann_return = 0.0 - sharpe = 0.0 - total_ret = 0.0 - max_dd = 0.0 + from quant_platform.backtest.metrics import all_metrics + + metrics = all_metrics(daily_returns) + ann_return = float(metrics.get("annual_return", 0.0)) + sharpe = float(metrics.get("sharpe_ratio", 0.0)) + total_ret = float(metrics.get("total_return", 0.0)) + max_dd = float(metrics.get("max_drawdown", 0.0)) avg_participation = float(np.mean(participation_rates)) if participation_rates else 0.0 max_participation = float(np.max(participation_rates)) if participation_rates else 0.0 diff --git a/backtest/cost_model.py b/backtest/cost_model.py index 510a1b5..68928f7 100644 --- a/backtest/cost_model.py +++ b/backtest/cost_model.py @@ -17,11 +17,50 @@ from __future__ import annotations import numpy as np +import pandas as pd from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) +# Statutory A-share stamp tax schedule. The rate was cut from 0.1% to 0.05% +# on 2023-08-28; a CostModel built without an explicit `stamp_tax` follows +# these dates when the trade date is supplied. An explicit `stamp_tax` value +# is a flat override (e.g. `config.costs.stamp_tax`). +STAMP_TAX_SCHEDULE: tuple[tuple[pd.Timestamp, float], ...] = ( + (pd.Timestamp("2023-08-28"), 0.0005), +) +STAMP_TAX_BEFORE_SCHEDULE = 0.001 + + +def _common_index(*values): + """Label index shared by the pandas Series among `values`, or None.""" + indexes = [value.index for value in values if isinstance(value, pd.Series)] + if not indexes: + return None + index = indexes[0] + for other in indexes[1:]: + index = index.union(other) + return index + + +def _aligned_arrays(*values, index=None): + """Convert values to float arrays, reindexing Series onto `index`. + + The vectorised cost paths used to rely on pandas label alignment. A plain + ``np.asarray`` conversion pairs values by position, which silently + mismatches assets when callers pass Series in different orders. + """ + arrays = [] + for value in values: + if isinstance(value, pd.Series): + if index is not None: + value = value.reindex(index) + arrays.append(value.to_numpy(dtype=float)) + else: + arrays.append(np.asarray(value, dtype=float)) + return arrays + class CostModel: """A-share transaction cost model with market impact integration. @@ -29,34 +68,64 @@ class CostModel: Supports two slippage modes: - "fixed": Constant bps slippage (fast, no data needed). - "impact": Uses ExecutionCostCalculator (Almgren-Chriss + Square-Root ensemble). - Requires daily_volume and volatility per asset. More accurate for large orders. + Requires daily_volume (average daily traded value in CNY, 人民币成交额) + and volatility per asset. More accurate for large orders. + + The vectorised path charges commission (with a per-order CNY minimum when + the per-order notional is known), the both-sides transfer fee, the + date-dependent sell-side stamp tax, and slippage. Per-instrument + commission/stamp overrides from an ``AssetUniverse`` are applied when the + traded Series' index carries the symbols (the backtest engine path). """ def __init__( self, commission: float = 0.0003, - stamp_tax: float = 0.001, + stamp_tax: float | None = None, slippage: float = 0.001, slippage_model: str = "fixed", asset_universe=None, impact_model: str = "composite", # composite, almgren_chriss, square_root + min_commission: float = 5.0, + transfer_fee: float = 0.00001, ): """ Args: commission: Commission rate per trade (default 0.03%). - stamp_tax: Stamp tax on sell only (default 0.1%). + stamp_tax: Flat stamp tax on sells. ``None`` (default) follows the + statutory date schedule (0.1% before 2023-08-28, 0.05% from + that date) when ``compute_costs`` is given a ``date``; without + a date the pre-change 0.1% rate is used for backward + compatibility. An explicit value overrides the schedule + (config override). slippage: Slippage assumption (default 0.1%). Used as fixed bps or as baseline for impact model. slippage_model: 'fixed' for constant bps, 'proportional' for size-dependent impact, 'impact' for full market impact model. asset_universe: AssetUniverse for per-instrument cost overrides. - impact_model: Which impact model to use when slippage_model='impact'. + impact_model: Which impact model to use when slippage_model='impact' + on the scalar single-order path. The vectorised path applies + the square-root rule documented in ``_compute_impact_cost`` + regardless of this setting. + min_commission: Commission floor in CNY per order. Applied on the + per-asset notional only when ``compute_costs`` is told the + portfolio value (i.e. the values passed are CNY notionals). + The weight-based engine is a per-asset-order approximation: + one order per rebalanced name. + transfer_fee: Transfer fee rate, both sides (default 0.001% = + 0.00001). """ self.commission = commission - self.stamp_tax = stamp_tax + # Numeric attribute kept for backward compatibility; the schedule is + # consulted instead when this was left at the default and a date is + # supplied. + self._stamp_tax_override = stamp_tax is not None + self.stamp_tax = STAMP_TAX_BEFORE_SCHEDULE if stamp_tax is None else stamp_tax self.slippage = slippage self.slippage_model = slippage_model self.asset_universe = asset_universe + self.min_commission = min_commission + self.transfer_fee = transfer_fee # Lazy-load impact model (only when needed) self._impact_calculator = None @@ -65,6 +134,59 @@ def __init__( # warning names the problem without repeating on every rebalance. self._slippage_fallback_warned = False + def _stamp_rate(self, date=None): + """Stamp-tax rate for a trade date (flat override wins).""" + if self._stamp_tax_override or date is None: + return self.stamp_tax + rate = STAMP_TAX_BEFORE_SCHEDULE + for change_date, new_rate in STAMP_TAX_SCHEDULE: + if pd.Timestamp(date) >= change_date: + rate = new_rate + return rate + + def _instrument_rates(self, traded, symbol, date=None): + """Per-instrument commission/stamp overrides for a vectorised call. + + Returns ``(commission_rate, stamp_rate)`` where either can be a + Series aligned to ``traded.index``. The engine passes a Series whose + index is the asset universe, so the overrides are reachable from the + vector path as well as from the scalar `symbol=` one (B7). + """ + base_commission = self.commission + base_stamp = self._stamp_rate(date) + if self.asset_universe is None: + return base_commission, base_stamp + + index = traded.index if isinstance(traded, pd.Series) else None + if isinstance(symbol, str) and symbol: + inst = self.asset_universe.get(symbol) + if inst is None: + return base_commission, base_stamp + commission_rate = ( + inst.commission_rate + if inst.commission_rate is not None else base_commission + ) + stamp_rate = ( + inst.stamp_tax_rate + if inst.stamp_tax_rate is not None else base_stamp + ) + return commission_rate, stamp_rate + + if index is None: + return base_commission, base_stamp + + commission_series = pd.Series(base_commission, index=index, dtype=float) + stamp_series = pd.Series(base_stamp, index=index, dtype=float) + for asset in index: + inst = self.asset_universe.get(asset) if isinstance(asset, str) else None + if inst is None: + continue + if inst.commission_rate is not None: + commission_series.loc[asset] = inst.commission_rate + if inst.stamp_tax_rate is not None: + stamp_series.loc[asset] = inst.stamp_tax_rate + return commission_series, stamp_series + def compute_costs( self, turnover, @@ -72,50 +194,116 @@ def compute_costs( daily_volume=None, symbol=None, volatility=None, + buy_turnover=None, + sell_turnover=None, + date=None, + portfolio_value=None, ): - """Compute total transaction costs as a proportion of trade value. + """Compute total transaction costs. Args: - turnover: Trade value (scalar, Series, or array). + turnover: Trade value (scalar, Series, or array). Only used for + the legacy single-figure path; when ``buy_turnover`` / + ``sell_turnover`` are supplied, costs are computed from the + actual split instead. is_sell: Boolean Series, True for sell trades. - daily_volume: Daily volume per asset for proportional/impact slippage. - symbol: Instrument symbol for per-instrument cost lookup. + daily_volume: Average daily traded value per asset in CNY + (人民币成交额), **not** a share count. Used by the + proportional and impact slippage models; participation is + traded CNY / daily traded CNY. Zero, negative, and non-finite + values use fixed slippage per asset. + symbol: Instrument symbol for per-instrument cost lookup. For a + Series input, either a scalar symbol (single-asset Series) or + a sequence of symbols aligned to the Series. When omitted the + Series index itself is treated as the symbol list, which is + what the backtest engine relies on (B7). volatility: Daily volatility for impact model (annualized / sqrt(252)). + Non-finite values use fixed slippage per asset. + buy_turnover: Per-asset buy notional (same units as ``turnover``). + When given, commission and slippage are charged on the total + two-way value and stamp tax on ``sell_turnover`` only. + sell_turnover: Per-asset sell notional (same units as ``turnover``). + date: Trade date. Selects the statutory stamp-tax rate when no + flat ``stamp_tax`` override was configured (B11). + portfolio_value: Current portfolio value in CNY. When supplied, + ``turnover`` / ``buy_turnover`` / ``sell_turnover`` MUST be + CNY notional amounts, the per-order minimum commission is + applied, and the returned costs are a fraction of + ``portfolio_value``. When omitted the legacy contract holds: + values are the caller's trade-value units and the returned + cost is in the same units; the CNY floor cannot be applied + because the notional is unknown (documented large-account + approximation for such callers). Returns: - Total cost as proportion of trade value (same type as turnover). + Total cost as a proportion of trade value (same type as turnover; + a fraction of portfolio value when ``portfolio_value`` is given). """ - # Look up per-instrument rates if available - commission_rate = self.commission - stamp_tax_rate = self.stamp_tax - if symbol and self.asset_universe is not None: - inst = self.asset_universe.get(symbol) - if inst is not None: - if inst.commission_rate is not None: - commission_rate = inst.commission_rate - if inst.stamp_tax_rate is not None: - stamp_tax_rate = inst.stamp_tax_rate - - abs_turnover = abs(turnover) if isinstance(turnover, (int, float)) else turnover.abs() + if buy_turnover is not None or sell_turnover is not None: + # Explicit buy/sell split: stamp tax is a sell-side tax, so it is + # charged on the sell notional only. Charging it on a total with + # `is_sell=None` (the legacy path below) assumes half of every + # trade is a sell, which overcharges from-cash builds and + # undercharges full liquidations. + buy = np.abs(0.0 if buy_turnover is None else buy_turnover) + sell = np.abs(0.0 if sell_turnover is None else sell_turnover) + traded = buy + sell + rate_probe = buy if isinstance(buy, pd.Series) else sell + else: + abs_turnover = np.abs(turnover) + traded = abs_turnover + rate_probe = abs_turnover - commission_cost = abs_turnover * commission_rate + commission_rate, stamp_tax_rate = self._instrument_rates( + rate_probe, symbol, date, + ) - if is_sell is not None: - stamp_cost = abs_turnover * stamp_tax_rate * is_sell.astype(float) + if buy_turnover is not None or sell_turnover is not None: + commission_cost = traded * commission_rate + stamp_cost = sell * stamp_tax_rate else: - stamp_cost = abs_turnover * stamp_tax_rate * 0.5 + commission_cost = traded * commission_rate + if is_sell is not None: + stamp_cost = traded * stamp_tax_rate * is_sell.astype(float) + else: + stamp_cost = traded * stamp_tax_rate * 0.5 + + commission_cost = self._apply_commission_floor( + commission_cost, traded, portfolio_value is not None, + ) + transfer_cost = traded * self.transfer_fee # --- Market impact / slippage --- if self.slippage_model == "impact" and daily_volume is not None and volatility is not None: - # Use full market impact model - slippage_cost = self._compute_impact_cost( - abs_turnover, daily_volume, volatility - ) - logger.debug("Impact cost: turnover=%.2f, cost=%.2f", abs_turnover, slippage_cost) + # `_compute_impact_cost` returns a dimensionless impact rate + # (impact cost / traded notional). + impact_rate = self._compute_impact_cost(traded, daily_volume, volatility) + slippage_cost = traded * impact_rate + logger.debug("Impact cost: turnover=%s, rate=%s", traded, impact_rate) elif self.slippage_model == "proportional" and daily_volume is not None: - # Size-dependent slippage: impact ∝ sqrt(participation) - participation = abs_turnover / daily_volume.clip(lower=1) - slippage_cost = abs_turnover * self.slippage * np.sqrt(participation) + # Size-dependent slippage: impact ∝ sqrt(participation) of daily + # traded value (both in CNY). Series inputs are aligned by label. + index = _common_index(traded, daily_volume) + traded_values, volume = _aligned_arrays(traded, daily_volume, index=index) + volume = np.asarray(volume, dtype=float) + valid_volume = np.isfinite(volume) & (volume > 0) + # Never turn missing/illiquid inputs into a CNY 1 denominator: + # that makes sqrt(participation) explode. Invalid assets pay the + # documented fixed rate while valid assets keep the sized rate. + safe_volume = np.clip(np.where(valid_volume, volume, 1.0), 1.0, None) + participation = np.where( + np.asarray(traded_values) != 0, + np.asarray(traded_values) / safe_volume, + 0.0, + ) + slippage_rate = np.where( + valid_volume, + self.slippage * np.sqrt(participation), + self.slippage, + ) + slippage_cost = traded_values * slippage_rate + if index is not None: + slippage_cost = pd.Series(slippage_cost, index=index) else: # Fixed slippage (default, fast) # @@ -137,56 +325,155 @@ def compute_costs( self._slippage_fallback_warned = True logger.warning( "slippage_model=%r is not in use: compute_costs() was " - "given no %s. Falling back to fixed slippage of %.1f " - "bps -- the configured model is NOT what is running.", + "given no %s; using a fallback to fixed slippage of " + "%.1f bps -- the configured model is NOT what is " + "running.", self.slippage_model, " or ".join(missing) or "supporting inputs", self.slippage * 10000, ) - slippage_cost = abs_turnover * self.slippage + slippage_cost = traded * self.slippage - return commission_cost + stamp_cost + slippage_cost + total = commission_cost + stamp_cost + transfer_cost + slippage_cost + if portfolio_value is not None: + # Inputs were CNY notionals of a CNY portfolio; return a fraction. + return total / float(portfolio_value) + return total + + def _apply_commission_floor(self, commission_cost, traded, notional_known): + """Apply the CNY per-order minimum where the notional is known. + + The floor is meaningful only when ``traded`` is a CNY amount, which + :meth:`compute_costs` signals with ``portfolio_value``. Outside that + contract the amounts may be weights or arbitrary units and a CNY floor + would be nonsense, so this is a no-op there. + """ + if not notional_known or self.min_commission <= 0: + return commission_cost + if isinstance(commission_cost, pd.Series): + floored = commission_cost.clip(lower=self.min_commission) + if isinstance(traded, pd.Series): + floored = floored.where(traded.reindex(floored.index) > 0, 0.0) + return floored + arr = np.asarray(commission_cost, dtype=float) + traded_arr = np.asarray(traded, dtype=float) + floored = np.maximum(arr, float(self.min_commission)) + if arr.ndim == 0: + return float(floored) if float(traded_arr) > 0 else 0.0 + return np.where(traded_arr > 0, floored, 0.0) + + # Reference price used to translate a CNY traded value into a share + # quantity for the impact model, which takes shares. The square-root and + # Almgren-Chriss components are price-invariant. + _IMPACT_REFERENCE_PRICE = 10.0 def _compute_impact_cost(self, turnover, daily_volume, volatility): - """Compute market impact cost using the sophisticated impact model.""" + """Market impact as a fraction of traded notional (CNY / CNY). + + Args: + turnover: Traded value in CNY. + daily_volume: Average daily traded value in CNY (人民币成交额), + the same unit as ``turnover``. + volatility: Daily volatility. + + Returns: + Impact cost divided by the traded notional, i.e. the impact + return the caller multiplies by the traded value. + + Only ``ExecutionCostCalculator.calculate().market_impact.total`` is + used. `total_cost` also contains commission (with a CNY 5 minimum) + and stamp tax, and it adds a *per-share* impact figure to those + currency amounts; returning it here double-charged commission and + stamp tax and put the result in the wrong units. `market_impact.total` + is a per-share price impact, so it is multiplied by the share + quantity (derived from the CNY turnover at the reference price) and + divided by the CNY turnover to obtain a dimensionless rate. + + The vector path uses the square-root impact rule directly: + ``sqrt(turnover / daily_volume) * volatility``. Since both volume + figures are traded value in CNY, no price conversion is needed and + the participation rate is price-free. Note that the two branches use + different models: the single-order (all-scalar) branch applies the + configured impact ensemble, while the vector branch applies the pure + square-root rule, so callers should keep shapes consistent within a + call. + """ if self._impact_calculator is None: self._init_impact_calculator() + if self._impact_calculator is None: + # The import failed and `_init_impact_calculator` switched to + # fixed slippage; return its rate rather than dereferencing None. + return self.slippage - # Handle both scalar and array inputs - if isinstance(turnover, (int, float)): - # Estimate quantity from turnover and an average price - # We use a reference price of ~10 for A-shares when price is unknown - # This gives a rough quantity estimate for impact calculation - price = 10.0 - quantity = max(1, int(turnover / price)) - vol = volatility if isinstance(volatility, (int, float)) else 0.02 - mkt_vol = max(1, int(daily_volume)) if isinstance(daily_volume, (int, float)) else 1 - + if np.isscalar(turnover) and np.isscalar(daily_volume) and np.isscalar(volatility): + traded = float(turnover) + if traded <= 0: + return 0.0 + volume = float(daily_volume) + vol = float(volatility) + if not np.isfinite(volume) or volume <= 0 or not np.isfinite(vol): + return float(self.slippage) + price = self._IMPACT_REFERENCE_PRICE + quantity = max(1, int(traded / price)) + # daily_volume is traded value in CNY; the impact model takes a + # share count, so use the same reference price as for quantity. + market_volume = max(1, int(volume / price)) cost = self._impact_calculator.calculate( order_quantity=quantity, price=price, side="buy", - market_volume=mkt_vol, - volatility=vol, + market_volume=market_volume, + volatility=vol, ) - return cost.total_cost + return float(cost.market_impact.total) * quantity / traded - # Array/Series path - # Vectorized: compute bps cost per unit of turnover - # Simplified — use square-root scaling per asset - participation = turnover / daily_volume.clip(lower=1) - impact_bps = np.sqrt(participation) * volatility.clip(lower=0.001) - return turnover * impact_bps + # Array/Series path: impact rate per unit of traded value. Series + # inputs are aligned by label (see _aligned_arrays). A scalar traded + # value against a per-asset volume vector is broadcast here rather + # than fed to the single-order calculator. + index = _common_index(turnover, daily_volume, volatility) + traded, volume, vol = _aligned_arrays( + turnover, daily_volume, volatility, index=index, + ) + volume = np.asarray(volume, dtype=float) + vol = np.asarray(vol, dtype=float) + valid_inputs = np.isfinite(volume) & (volume > 0) & np.isfinite(vol) + safe_volume = np.clip(np.where(valid_inputs, volume, 1.0), 1.0, None) + safe_vol = np.where(valid_inputs, vol, 0.001) + participation = np.where( + np.asarray(traded) != 0, + np.abs(np.asarray(traded)) / safe_volume, + 0.0, + ) + impact_rate = np.sqrt(participation) * np.clip(safe_vol, 0.001, None) + rate = np.where(valid_inputs, impact_rate, self.slippage) + return pd.Series(rate, index=index) if index is not None else rate def _init_impact_calculator(self): - """Lazy-init the market impact calculator.""" + """Lazy-init the market impact calculator for the configured model. + + ``impact_model`` selects the scalar-path model: ``composite`` (the + default ensemble), ``almgren_chriss`` or ``square_root``. The + vectorised path documents its own rule (pure square-root) in + ``_compute_impact_cost``. + """ try: from quant_core.market_impact import ( + AlmgrenChrissModel, CompositeImpactModel, ExecutionCostCalculator, + SquareRootModel, ) + model_classes = { + "composite": CompositeImpactModel, + "almgren_chriss": AlmgrenChrissModel, + "square_root": SquareRootModel, + } + impact_model = model_classes.get( + self._impact_model_name, CompositeImpactModel, + )() self._impact_calculator = ExecutionCostCalculator( - impact_model=CompositeImpactModel(), + impact_model=impact_model, commission_rate=self.commission, stamp_tax_rate=self.stamp_tax, ) diff --git a/backtest/distributed.py b/backtest/distributed.py index acd0e2c..b95e5f3 100644 --- a/backtest/distributed.py +++ b/backtest/distributed.py @@ -12,11 +12,12 @@ from quant_platform.backtest.distributed import ParallelBacktester bt = ParallelBacktester(max_workers=4) - results = bt.run_sweep( + sweep = bt.run_sweep( + # Flat aliases ("optimizer", "n_stocks") or dotted config paths + # ("portfolio.covariance.method") are both accepted. param_grid={"optimizer": ["equal_weight", "mean_variance"], "n_stocks": [200, 300]}, - base_config=config, ) - best = bt.find_best(results, metric="sharpe_ratio") + best_params = sweep.best_params """ from __future__ import annotations @@ -26,11 +27,134 @@ from dataclasses import dataclass, field from typing import Any +import pandas as pd + +from quant_platform.backtest.metrics import ( + all_metrics, + annualized_return, + annualized_volatility, + max_drawdown, + sharpe_ratio, +) from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) +# Flat parameter names accepted by `run_sweep`, mapped to their real dotted +# config paths. `param_grid={"optimizer": [...], "n_stocks": [...]}` is the +# documented usage; applying those keys with `setattr` on the root Config used +# to create dead attributes, so every sweep cell silently ran the same +# configuration. +PARAM_ALIASES: dict[str, str] = { + "optimizer": "portfolio.optimizer", + "n_stocks": "universe.n_stocks", + "alpha_method": "alpha.method", + "rebalance_frequency": "backtest.rebalance_frequency", + "benchmark": "backtest.benchmark", + "initial_capital": "backtest.initial_capital", + "covariance_method": "portfolio.covariance.method", + "max_weight": "portfolio.constraints.max_weight", + "max_turnover": "portfolio.constraints.max_turnover", + "commission": "costs.commission", + "stamp_tax": "costs.stamp_tax", + "slippage": "costs.slippage", + "slippage_model": "costs.slippage_model", +} + + +def _resolve_param_path(config, key: str) -> str: + """Resolve a sweep parameter name to a dotted path that exists on `config`. + + Raises: + ValueError: if `key` is neither a known flat alias nor a dotted path + whose every segment exists on the config dataclasses. + """ + path = PARAM_ALIASES.get(key, key) + if "." not in path: + raise ValueError( + f"Unknown sweep parameter {key!r}: use a flat alias " + f"({', '.join(sorted(PARAM_ALIASES))}) or a dotted config path " + "such as 'portfolio.optimizer'." + ) + target = config + for part in path.split("."): + if not hasattr(target, part): + raise ValueError( + f"Unknown sweep parameter {key!r}: {path!r} does not exist " + f"on the configuration" + ) + target = getattr(target, part) + return path + + +def _apply_config_overrides(config, overrides: dict[str, Any]): + """Apply sweep overrides to a Config, resolving flat aliases first.""" + for key, value in overrides.items(): + path = _resolve_param_path(config, key) + target = config + parts = path.split(".") + for part in parts[:-1]: + target = getattr(target, part) + setattr(target, parts[-1], value) + return config + + +def _compute_metrics(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> dict[str, float]: + """Summarise a worker's daily returns with the shared metric functions. + + The worker used to divide annual return by annual volatility itself (no + risk-free rate, no zero-volatility guard) and to measure drawdown from the + first *return* rather than from inception, so sweep results were not + comparable with the main backtest. Everything now comes from + `quant_platform.backtest.metrics`; a series too short for `all_metrics` + (< 10 observations) still gets the five headline figures. + """ + series = pd.Series(daily_returns, copy=True).dropna() + if series.empty: + return { + "total_return": 0.0, + "annual_return": 0.0, + "annual_volatility": 0.0, + "sharpe_ratio": 0.0, + "max_drawdown": 0.0, + } + if len(series) < 2: + # Not enough observations for a volatility; avoid NaN propagating into + # sweep results and JSON responses. + return { + "total_return": round(float((1 + series).prod() - 1), 4), + "annual_return": 0.0, + "annual_volatility": 0.0, + "sharpe_ratio": 0.0, + "max_drawdown": 0.0, + } + if not isinstance(series.index, pd.DatetimeIndex): + # `max_drawdown` labels its peak/trough with index values as dates; + # real backtest output always has a DatetimeIndex, but a plain Series + # would otherwise crash inside `all_metrics`. + series.index = pd.bdate_range("2000-01-03", periods=len(series)) + + summary = all_metrics(series) + if not summary: + mdd, _, _ = max_drawdown(series) + summary = { + "total_return": float((1 + series).prod() - 1), + "annual_return": annualized_return(series), + "annual_volatility": annualized_volatility(series), + "sharpe_ratio": sharpe_ratio(series), + "max_drawdown": mdd, + } + + return { + "total_return": round(float(summary["total_return"]), 4), + "annual_return": round(float(summary["annual_return"]), 4), + "annual_volatility": round(float(summary["annual_volatility"]), 4), + "sharpe_ratio": round(float(summary["sharpe_ratio"]), 4), + "max_drawdown": round(float(summary["max_drawdown"]), 4), + } + + @dataclass class BacktestResult: """Result of a single backtest run.""" @@ -79,48 +203,42 @@ def _run_single_backtest(args: tuple) -> BacktestResult: try: # Import inside worker to avoid pickling issues - from quant_platform.main import _compute_factors, _generate_signal, _load_data, _run_backtest + from quant_platform.main import ( + _compute_factors, + _execution_gates, + _generate_signal, + _load_data, + _run_backtest, + ) from quant_platform.utils.config import load_config - # Merge config overrides + # Merge config overrides. `load_config()` returns dataclasses, not + # dicts. Flat aliases ("optimizer", "n_stocks") are mapped to their + # real config paths; every other key must be a dotted path that exists + # on the config (a typo used to become a dead attribute). config = load_config() - for key, value in config_overrides.items(): - keys = key.split(".") - cfg_section = config - for k in keys[:-1]: - cfg_section = cfg_section.setdefault(k, {}) - cfg_section[keys[-1]] = value - - # Run pipeline - data_result = _load_data(config) - factors_result = _compute_factors(data_result, config) - signal = _generate_signal(factors_result, config) - backtest_result = _run_backtest(signal, data_result, config) - - # Extract key metrics + _apply_config_overrides(config, config_overrides) + + # Run pipeline with the real helper signatures. + prices, returns, benchmark, metadata, financials, turnover = _load_data(config) + processed_factors, _ic_results, sector_map, fin_unstacked = _compute_factors( + prices, returns, financials, metadata, turnover, config=config, + ) + signal = _generate_signal(config, processed_factors, returns) + backtest_result = _run_backtest( + config, signal, prices, returns, benchmark, sector_map, + fin_unstacked if fin_unstacked is not None else financials, + gates=_execution_gates(metadata), + ) + + # Extract key metrics with the shared metric definitions, so sweep + # results use the same Sharpe/reporting conventions as the main + # backtest (risk-free rate, zero-vol guard, drawdown from inception). daily_returns = backtest_result.get("daily_returns") if daily_returns is not None: - import numpy as np - - total_return = float((1 + daily_returns).prod() - 1) - ann_return = float((1 + total_return) ** (252 / max(len(daily_returns), 1)) - 1) - ann_vol = float(daily_returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)) - sharpe = ann_return / ann_vol if ann_vol > 0 else 0 - - cum = (1 + daily_returns).cumprod() - running_max = cum.cummax() - drawdown = (cum - running_max) / running_max - max_dd = float(drawdown.min()) - - metrics = { - "total_return": round(total_return, 4), - "annual_return": round(ann_return, 4), - "annual_volatility": round(ann_vol, 4), - "sharpe_ratio": round(sharpe, 4), - "max_drawdown": round(max_dd, 4), - } + metrics = _compute_metrics(daily_returns) else: - metrics = {"total_return": 0, "sharpe_ratio": 0} + metrics = _compute_metrics(pd.Series(dtype=float)) duration = time.perf_counter() - start return BacktestResult( @@ -161,8 +279,14 @@ def run_sweep( """Run parameter sweep in parallel. Args: - param_grid: dict of param_name -> list of values + param_grid: dict of param_name -> list of values. Names may be + flat aliases from `PARAM_ALIASES` (e.g. ``"optimizer"`` → + ``portfolio.optimizer``, ``"n_stocks"`` → + ``universe.n_stocks``) or dotted config paths such as + ``"portfolio.covariance.method"``. Unknown names raise + ``ValueError`` before any process is started. base_config_overrides: base config overrides applied to all runs + (same naming rules as `param_grid`). metric: metric to optimize (default: sharpe_ratio) Returns: @@ -172,6 +296,14 @@ def run_sweep( base_overrides = base_config_overrides or {} + # Fail fast on unknown parameter names. Inside the worker pool the + # ValueError would only surface as one failed cell per combination. + from quant_platform.utils.config import load_config + + validation_config = load_config() + for key in {*param_grid, *base_overrides}: + _resolve_param_path(validation_config, key) + # Generate all combinations param_names = list(param_grid.keys()) param_values = list(param_grid.values()) diff --git a/backtest/engine.py b/backtest/engine.py index 56ff8f3..fd25cd5 100644 --- a/backtest/engine.py +++ b/backtest/engine.py @@ -9,14 +9,49 @@ - Monthly rebalancing: weights computed on the last trading day of each month, executed at next day's close, held until next rebalance. - All P&L is net of transaction costs. + +Fill model and lots +------------------- +This is a **weight-based** engine. Quantities are never converted to shares, +so the configured ``lot_size`` (100 shares) is *not* enforced here; lot +rounding is the job of the tick/execution layer. Treat backtest weights as +"research notionals" and the engine as lot-agnostic by design (B8). The +tradability gate below *is* enforced per asset-day when the caller supplies +the panels. + +Execution-day tradability +------------------------- +``run`` accepts the pipeline's per-date ``tradable_mask`` (suspension / ST / +listing / delisting), an optional ``universe_mask`` (index membership), plus +``limit_up`` and ``limit_down`` panels. Buys are blocked on non-tradable +days, on non-member days and at limit-up; sells are blocked on non-tradable +days and at limit-down but *not* on non-membership -- a name that leaves the +index must remain sellable. Blocked trades are carried to the next tradable +day; no cost or turnover is booked for them. Without the panels the engine +behaves exactly as before. + +Cash constraint (R18) +--------------------- +Execution is sell-first: the allowed sells settle, and buys are then funded +from real cash only, ``available_cash = max(0, 1 - sum(weights after sells))``. +When a sell is blocked (limit-down / suspension) while the target still buys, +the buys that would execute can exceed that cash; the engine scales every +buy down by one common factor instead of turning the blocked sell into +cost-free leverage. After execution ``sum(weights) <= 1 + 1e-9`` holds on +every day, and the unfilled buy deltas stay in the deferred queue. The +optimizer's ``max_weight`` remains a target-level constraint: it bounds the +rebalance target, not the held book, so price drift (or a blocked sell) can +still leave a single name above it between rebalances -- the engine does not +force an extra sell to clip it. """ from __future__ import annotations +import numpy as np import pandas as pd from quant_platform.backtest.cost_model import CostModel -from quant_platform.backtest.metrics import all_metrics +from quant_platform.backtest.metrics import all_metrics, annualization_years from quant_platform.portfolio.constraints import PortfolioConstraints from quant_platform.portfolio.covariance import estimate_covariance from quant_platform.portfolio.optimizers import ( @@ -28,6 +63,17 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +# ``backtest.benchmark`` values the engine can actually compute. Any other +# value would silently fall through to "use the caller's series", which is how +# `market_cap_weight` used to be accepted-but-not-implemented (B6). +_SUPPORTED_BENCHMARKS = ("equal_weight", "market_cap_weight") + +# Tolerance on the cash-funded buy budget. The post-execution gross-exposure +# invariant the engine promises is ``sum(weights) <= 1 + 1e-9``; anything +# inside this tolerance is left untouched so the default (no blocked sells) +# path stays bit-identical to the pre-R18 engine. +_FUNDING_TOL = 1e-12 + class BacktestEngine: """Vectorized multi-period backtesting engine for A-share strategies.""" @@ -42,16 +88,30 @@ def __init__( benchmark: str = "equal_weight", covariance_method: str = "ledoit_wolf", covariance_lookback: int = 252, + covariance_ewma_half_life: int = 63, execution_timing: str = "next_close", + risk_free_rate: float = 0.03, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, ): self.initial_capital = initial_capital self.rebalance_frequency = rebalance_frequency self.cost_model = cost_model or CostModel() self.constraints = constraints or PortfolioConstraints() self.optimizer_name = optimizer + if benchmark not in _SUPPORTED_BENCHMARKS: + raise ValueError( + f"Unknown benchmark: {benchmark!r}. Supported values: " + f"{', '.join(_SUPPORTED_BENCHMARKS)}. Pass a pre-computed " + "series only through benchmark_returns." + ) self.benchmark_type = benchmark self.covariance_method = covariance_method self.covariance_lookback = covariance_lookback + self.covariance_ewma_half_life = covariance_ewma_half_life + # B12: annualization basis and risk-free are explicit, not constants. + # ``None`` for periods_per_year means "infer from the return index". + self.risk_free_rate = risk_free_rate + self.periods_per_year = periods_per_year # `next_close` (default): the signal is computed from rdate's close and # executed at the *next* trading day's close, which is what the module @@ -69,7 +129,98 @@ def __init__( self.portfolio_values: pd.Series | None = None self.benchmark_returns: pd.Series | None = None self.weights_history: dict[pd.Timestamp, pd.Series] = {} + self.unexecuted_signals: dict[pd.Timestamp, pd.Series] = {} self.turnover_history: pd.Series | None = None + self.optimizer_outcomes: dict[pd.Timestamp, dict] = {} + self.optimizer_fallback_count = 0 + self.skipped_rebalances = 0 + self.covariance_failures = 0 + # Rebalances where covariance estimation produced nothing and MVO ran + # on an identity matrix. Kept separate from equal-weight fallbacks so + # `effective_optimizer` names the right risk model (M27). + self.identity_covariance_fallbacks = 0 + self._executed_signal_dates: set[pd.Timestamp] = set() + # Sum of per-rebalance costs in return units. Reported in the summary + # so the strategy gates can evaluate the configured cost-drag limit. + self.total_cost_drag = 0.0 + # Execution days on which the cash constraint scaled buys down (R18). + self.n_funding_scaled_days = 0 + + @staticmethod + def _compute_equal_weight_benchmark(returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series: + """Per-date equal weight over the assets with a return that day. + + The old implementation filtered columns with a whole-sample + `dropna(thresh=50%)`, so an asset's future listing history decided + whether it entered the benchmark on early dates. Mean over each row + skips NaN and uses exactly what was observable that day. + """ + return returns.mean(axis=1) + + @staticmethod + def _extract_market_cap_panel(financials) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Pull a (date x asset) market-cap panel out of the `financials` input. + + Accepted shapes, in order: + - a MultiIndex-column frame from ``financials.unstack("asset")`` + (columns are ``(field, asset)``; main.py passes this shape), + - a long frame indexed by ``(date, asset)`` with a ``market_cap`` + column, + - a plain (date x asset) market-cap panel. + """ + if financials is None or not isinstance(financials, pd.DataFrame): + return None + if isinstance(financials.columns, pd.MultiIndex): + fields = financials.columns.get_level_values(0) + if "market_cap" not in fields: + return None + return financials["market_cap"] + if "market_cap" in financials.columns: + panel = financials["market_cap"] + if isinstance(panel, pd.Series) and isinstance( + panel.index, pd.MultiIndex, + ): + panel = panel.unstack("asset") + if isinstance(panel, pd.DataFrame): + return panel + return financials + + @classmethod + def _compute_market_cap_weight_benchmark( + cls, returns: pd.DataFrame, financials, + ) -> pd.Series: + """Cap-weighted benchmark from point-in-time market caps (B6). + + Market caps are forward-filled over time only: on each date the + benchmark uses the latest cap observed at or before that date, never a + later observation. Names without a cap or without a return that day + are excluded from that date's weights; a date with no usable caps + yields NaN rather than a fabricated zero. + """ + caps = cls._extract_market_cap_panel(financials) + if caps is None or caps.empty: + raise ValueError( + "benchmark='market_cap_weight' requires a financials panel " + "with market_cap data (date x asset)" + ) + if not isinstance(caps.index, pd.DatetimeIndex): + raise ValueError( + "benchmark='market_cap_weight': financials must be indexed by date" + ) + # Point-in-time: reindex to the union and forward-fill so a value only + # becomes visible on/after its own date; then project onto the return + # grid. + all_dates = caps.index.union(returns.index).sort_values() + caps = caps.reindex(all_dates).ffill().reindex( + index=returns.index, columns=returns.columns, + ) + usable = returns.notna() & caps.notna() & (caps > 0) + weights = caps.where(usable) + row_sum = weights.sum(axis=1) + weights = weights.div(row_sum.where(row_sum > 0), axis=0) + bench = (returns.fillna(0.0) * weights.fillna(0.0)).sum(axis=1) + bench = bench.where(row_sum > 0) + return bench.rename("benchmark_return") def run( self, @@ -79,6 +230,15 @@ def run( benchmark_returns: pd.Series, sector_map: pd.Series, financials: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + tradable_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + universe_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + limit_up: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + limit_down: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + daily_volume: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + volatility: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + risk_free_rate: float | None = None, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, + raw_prices: pd.DataFrame | None = None, ) -> dict: """Execute the backtest. @@ -88,20 +248,70 @@ def run( returns: (date x asset) daily returns. benchmark_returns: Series of benchmark daily returns. sector_map: Series mapping asset -> sector name. - financials: (date x asset) financial data, for market cap. + financials: financial data for the market-cap benchmark. Accepts + the ``financials.unstack("asset")`` shape main.py passes, a + long (date, asset) frame with a ``market_cap`` column, or a + plain (date x asset) cap panel. + tradable_mask: (date x asset) True where a new position is + allowed. False on suspension / ST / listing / delisting days. + Missing entries default to tradable. + universe_mask: (date x asset) True where the asset is an index + constituent. Gates buys only; sells are not restricted by + membership so an index exit can still be liquidated. Missing + entries default to member (True). ``None`` is equivalent to + an all-True panel. + limit_up: (date x asset) True where the asset closed limit-up. + Buys are blocked there. + limit_down: (date x asset) True where the asset closed + limit-down. Sells are blocked there. + daily_volume: (date x asset) traded **volume in shares** (the + provider boundary unit). Converted to CNY with ``raw_prices`` + (unadjusted traded close) for the R8 capacity cap + ``adv = (volume * raw_close).rolling(20, min_periods=5).mean()`` + and for the cost model's proportional/impact slippage models. + ``prices`` is the adjusted research panel and must NOT be + used as a CNY price; without ``raw_prices`` the capacity cap + is disabled and the volume is dropped before the cost model + (both paths log a warning). + volatility: (date x asset) daily volatility estimate for the + impact model. When omitted and an impact/proportional model + is configured, a 20-day rolling std of ``returns`` shifted by + one bar (observable at the execution close) is used. + risk_free_rate: Annual risk-free override for this run (defaults + to the constructor value). + periods_per_year: Annualization override for this run (defaults to + the constructor value; ``None`` infers from the return index). + raw_prices: (date x asset) **unadjusted** close prices (CNY), + e.g. ``DataPipeline.get_raw_close()``. Required to turn share + volume into a CNY traded value. Only used when + ``daily_volume`` is supplied. Returns: Dict with daily_returns, portfolio_values, benchmark_returns, - weights_history, and summary metrics. + weights_history (executed rebalances only), turnover_history, and + summary metrics. ``summary["since_first_execution"]`` carries the + same metric block computed from the first fill onward (B13); + ``summary["n_rebalances"]`` counts executed rebalances (M13). """ logger.info("Starting backtest: capital=%.0f, freq=%s, optimizer=%s", self.initial_capital, self.rebalance_frequency, self.optimizer_name) + # External callers derive signals from DataFrames that carry pandas + # attrs (e.g. ``excluded_mask``); on pandas 3 those attrs propagate + # into downstream selections and crash inside Series.nlargest. Clear + # them at the engine boundary on a shallow copy (the caller's object + # is left untouched). + signal = signal.copy(deep=False) + signal.attrs = {} + # Pre-compute benchmark daily returns if self.benchmark_type == "equal_weight": - bench_valid = returns.dropna(axis=1, thresh=int(len(returns) * 0.5)) - self.benchmark_returns = bench_valid.mean(axis=1) - else: + self.benchmark_returns = self._compute_equal_weight_benchmark(returns) + elif self.benchmark_type == "market_cap_weight": + self.benchmark_returns = self._compute_market_cap_weight_benchmark( + returns, financials, + ) + else: # pragma: no cover - constructor rejects unknown values self.benchmark_returns = benchmark_returns rebalance_dates = self._get_rebalance_dates(signal.index) @@ -112,20 +322,86 @@ def run( self.rebalance_frequency) self.weights_history = {} + self.unexecuted_signals = {} + self.optimizer_outcomes = {} + self.optimizer_fallback_count = 0 + self.skipped_rebalances = 0 + self.covariance_failures = 0 + self.identity_covariance_fallbacks = 0 prev_weights = None + # One optimizer instance for the whole run, so its fallback counter + # accumulates; a fresh instance per rebalance hid every fallback. + optimizer = self._get_optimizer() + + # R8 cost/capacity knobs are implemented by the MVO optimizer only + # (see portfolio/optimizers.py). Say so instead of silently ignoring + # them when another optimizer is configured. + if self.optimizer_name != "mean_variance" and ( + self.constraints.transaction_cost_bps > 0 + or self.constraints.turnover_penalty > 0 + or self.constraints.max_participation > 0 + ): + logger.warning( + "transaction_cost_bps/turnover_penalty/max_participation are " + "implemented for the mean_variance optimizer only; " + "optimizer=%s ignores them", + self.optimizer_name, + ) + + # R8 capacity: ADV in CNY is the 20-session mean of volume (shares) + # x **raw** close. ``prices`` is the adjusted research panel and is + # not a CNY price (data/pipeline.get_factor_prices docstring), so a + # share volume cannot be turned into a traded value without + # ``raw_prices``; the cap is refused rather than computed on the + # wrong price basis. Only evaluated when the cap is configured; the + # default path never touches this. + capacity_adv_panel = None + capacity_adv_warned = False + if self.constraints.max_participation > 0: + if daily_volume is None: + logger.warning( + "max_participation=%.3f is configured but run() received " + "no daily_volume panel; the capacity constraint is " + "disabled for this backtest", + self.constraints.max_participation, + ) + capacity_adv_warned = True + elif raw_prices is None: + logger.warning( + "max_participation=%.3f is configured but run() received " + "no raw_prices; ``prices`` is the adjusted research " + "panel, not a CNY price, so share volume cannot be " + "converted to a CNY traded value. The capacity " + "constraint is disabled for this backtest (pass " + "raw_prices, e.g. pipeline.get_raw_close()).", + self.constraints.max_participation, + ) + capacity_adv_warned = True + else: + volume_shares = daily_volume.reindex( + index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns, + ) + raw_close = raw_prices.reindex( + index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns, + ) + capacity_adv_panel = ( + volume_shares * raw_close + ).rolling(20, min_periods=5).mean() for i, rdate in enumerate(rebalance_dates): logger.debug("Rebalance %d/%d: %s", i + 1, len(rebalance_dates), str(rdate)[:10]) sig = signal.loc[rdate].dropna() if len(sig) < 10: - logger.debug("Rebalance %s: only %d signals — using equal weight fallback", + logger.debug("Rebalance %s: only %d signals — using equal-weight signal " + "(the configured optimizer still applies)", str(rdate)[:10], len(sig)) if rdate in prices.index: valid_assets = prices.loc[rdate].dropna().index if len(valid_assets) >= 10: sig = pd.Series(1.0, index=valid_assets) if len(sig) < 10: + self.skipped_rebalances += 1 continue # Estimate covariance matrix. @@ -139,6 +415,7 @@ def run( # future. It was also one row too long (253 for a 252 lookback). prior_dates = returns.index[returns.index < rdate] if len(prior_dates) == 0: + self.skipped_rebalances += 1 continue lookback_end = returns.index.get_loc(prior_dates[-1]) lookback_start = max(0, lookback_end + 1 - self.covariance_lookback) @@ -150,6 +427,7 @@ def run( sig = sig[valid_assets] if len(sig) < 10: + self.skipped_rebalances += 1 continue ret_window = ret_window[valid_assets] @@ -158,31 +436,179 @@ def run( ret_window, method=self.covariance_method, lookback=min(self.covariance_lookback, len(ret_window)), + ewma_half_life=self.covariance_ewma_half_life, ) - except Exception: + except Exception as exc: + # A silently swallowed failure here ran the whole backtest + # on an identity covariance (MVO) or equal-weight fallback + # (risk parity) while the summary still named the configured + # risk model. The Ledoit-Wolf kernel used to fail to compile, + # which is exactly how that happened. cov = None + self.covariance_failures += 1 + logger.warning( + "Covariance estimation failed at %s (%s): %s", + str(rdate)[:10], self.covariance_method, exc, + ) + + # M27: MVO silently substitutes the identity matrix for a missing + # covariance. Count that as a risk-model fallback so the summary + # cannot claim a real covariance-driven optimizer ran. + identity_cov = cov is None and self.optimizer_name == "mean_variance" + if identity_cov: + self.identity_covariance_fallbacks += 1 # Optimize - optimizer = self._get_optimizer() + adv_for_optimizer = None + aum_for_optimizer = None + if self.constraints.max_participation > 0: + # Decision-time portfolio value: the engine has not replayed + # P&L yet at this point, so the documented AUM convention is + # the run's initial capital (constant across rebalances). + aum_for_optimizer = float(self.initial_capital) + if capacity_adv_panel is not None and rdate in capacity_adv_panel.index: + adv_row = capacity_adv_panel.loc[rdate].reindex(sig.index) + if adv_row.notna().any() and bool((adv_row > 0).any()): + # NaN ADV entries are passed through: the optimizer + # keeps max_weight for those names and logs them. + adv_for_optimizer = adv_row + elif not capacity_adv_warned: + capacity_adv_warned = True + logger.warning( + "Rebalance %s: no positive ADV is available for " + "any candidate asset; optimizing without the " + "capacity cap", str(rdate)[:10], + ) + fallbacks_before = optimizer.fallback_count weights = optimizer.optimize( signal=sig, cov_matrix=cov, prices=prices.loc[rdate].reindex(sig.index) if rdate in prices.index else None, prev_weights=prev_weights, sector_map=sector_map.reindex(sig.index) if sector_map is not None else None, + adv=adv_for_optimizer, + aum=aum_for_optimizer, ) + fell_back = optimizer.fallback_count > fallbacks_before + fallback_reason = optimizer.last_fallback_reason if fell_back else None + if fell_back: + self.optimizer_fallback_count += 1 + logger.warning( + "Rebalance %s: optimizer fallback #%d — %s", + str(rdate)[:10], self.optimizer_fallback_count, fallback_reason, + ) + + self.optimizer_outcomes[rdate] = { + "optimizer": self.optimizer_name, + "fallback": fell_back, + "reason": fallback_reason, + "identity_covariance": identity_cov, + "n_assets": int((weights > 0).sum()), + "gross_exposure": float(weights.sum()), + "executed": False, + } self.weights_history[rdate] = weights prev_weights = weights # Simulate daily P&L - self._simulate_pnl(returns) + self._simulate_pnl( + returns, + tradable_mask=tradable_mask, + universe_mask=universe_mask, + limit_up=limit_up, + limit_down=limit_down, + daily_volume=daily_volume, + volatility=volatility, + raw_prices=raw_prices, + ) + + # M13: only rebalances that actually reached an execution day belong + # in `weights_history` / `n_rebalances`. A signal whose date is the + # last bar has no following trading day (dropped by the schedule) and + # used to be reported as a held portfolio. + executed = self._executed_signal_dates + self.unexecuted_signals = { + rdate: weights for rdate, weights in self.weights_history.items() + if rdate not in executed + } + self.weights_history = { + rdate: weights for rdate, weights in self.weights_history.items() + if rdate in executed + } + for rdate, outcome in self.optimizer_outcomes.items(): + outcome["executed"] = rdate in executed + + rf = self.risk_free_rate if risk_free_rate is None else risk_free_rate + ppy = self.periods_per_year if periods_per_year is None else periods_per_year # Compute metrics - summary = all_metrics(self.daily_returns, self.benchmark_returns) - summary["n_rebalances"] = len(self.weights_history) + summary = all_metrics( + self.daily_returns, self.benchmark_returns, + periods_per_year=ppy, risk_free=rf, + ) + n_rebalances = len(self.weights_history) + summary["n_rebalances"] = n_rebalances + summary["n_unexecuted_signals"] = len(self.unexecuted_signals) summary["optimizer"] = self.optimizer_name summary["initial_capital"] = self.initial_capital + summary["n_optimizer_fallbacks"] = self.optimizer_fallback_count + summary["optimizer_fallback_rate"] = ( + self.optimizer_fallback_count / n_rebalances if n_rebalances else 0.0 + ) + summary["n_skipped_rebalances"] = self.skipped_rebalances + summary["n_covariance_failures"] = self.covariance_failures + summary["n_identity_covariance_fallbacks"] = self.identity_covariance_fallbacks + # R18: execution days on which the cash constraint scaled buys down + # (only possible when a sell was blocked or the book carried no cash). + # Counted per execution/retry day, not per rebalance: one pending + # rebalance whose sell stays blocked retries (and is counted) daily. + summary["n_funding_scaled_days"] = int(self.n_funding_scaled_days) + if self.optimizer_fallback_count > 0: + summary["effective_optimizer"] = ( + f"{self.optimizer_name}+equal_weight_fallback" + ) + elif self.identity_covariance_fallbacks > 0: + # MVO ran every affected rebalance on eye(n); say so instead of + # reporting a mean-variance risk model that was not used. + summary["effective_optimizer"] = f"{self.optimizer_name}(identity_cov)" + else: + summary["effective_optimizer"] = self.optimizer_name + + # B13: report the metrics the strategy actually earned once invested, + # alongside the from-inception block. A month-end strategy sits in + # cash for the first weeks while the benchmark moves, which distorts + # Sharpe/vol/excess for short samples. + first_exec = None + if self.turnover_history is not None and len(self.turnover_history): + first_exec = self.turnover_history.index.min() + if first_exec is not None: + since_returns = self.daily_returns.loc[first_exec:] + since_bench = None + if self.benchmark_returns is not None and len(self.benchmark_returns): + since_bench = self.benchmark_returns.loc[ + self.benchmark_returns.index >= first_exec + ] + summary["since_first_execution"] = all_metrics( + since_returns, since_bench, + periods_per_year=ppy, risk_free=rf, + ) + summary["first_execution_date"] = str(first_exec.date()) + leading = self.daily_returns.loc[:first_exec] + summary["n_leading_cash_days"] = int( + (leading.iloc[:-1] == 0).sum() + ) if len(leading) else 0 + + years = annualization_years(self.daily_returns, ppy) + summary["annual_turnover"] = ( + float(self.turnover_history.sum()) / years + if years > 0 and self.turnover_history is not None + and len(self.turnover_history) else 0.0 + ) + summary["total_cost_drag"] = float(self.total_cost_drag) + summary["annual_cost_drag"] = ( + float(self.total_cost_drag) / years if years > 0 else 0.0 + ) logger.info("Backtest complete: total_return=%.2f%%, sharpe=%.2f", summary.get("total_return", 0) * 100, @@ -193,6 +619,7 @@ def run( "portfolio_values": self.portfolio_values, "benchmark_returns": self.benchmark_returns, "weights_history": self.weights_history, + "unexecuted_signals": self.unexecuted_signals, "turnover_history": self.turnover_history, "summary": summary, } @@ -202,13 +629,22 @@ def _get_rebalance_dates(self, dates: pd.DatetimeIndex) -> list: if self.rebalance_frequency == "daily": return list(dates) elif self.rebalance_frequency == "weekly": - # Last trading day of each week - grouped = dates.to_series().groupby([dates.year, dates.isocalendar().week]) - return [pd.Timestamp(d) for d in grouped.last().sort_index().values] + # Last trading day of each ISO week. Grouping by the *calendar* + # year put a late-December session (ISO week 1 of the next year) + # in the same bucket as the first week of the current January: + # the early-January rebalance vanished, a spurious Dec-31 one + # appeared, the list came back non-chronological, and the January + # optimizer received the December target as prev_weights -- a + # look-ahead through the turnover constraint (B2). + iso = dates.isocalendar() + grouped = dates.to_series().groupby([ + iso["year"].to_numpy(), iso["week"].to_numpy(), + ]) + return sorted(pd.Timestamp(d) for d in grouped.last().values) elif self.rebalance_frequency == "monthly": # Last trading day of each month (using actual trading calendar) grouped = dates.to_series().groupby([dates.year, dates.month]) - return [pd.Timestamp(d) for d in grouped.last().sort_index().values] + return sorted(pd.Timestamp(d) for d in grouped.last().values) else: raise ValueError(f"Unknown rebalance frequency: {self.rebalance_frequency}") @@ -257,45 +693,378 @@ def _execution_schedule( schedule.append((index[pos + 1], rdate)) return schedule - def _simulate_pnl(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> None: - """Simulate daily P&L with costs. + @staticmethod + def _align_gate(panel, dates, columns, default: bool): + """Reindex a boolean gate panel onto (dates x columns).""" + if panel is None: + return None + return ( + panel.reindex(index=dates, columns=columns) + .fillna(default) + .astype(bool) + ) + + @staticmethod + def _align_float(panel, dates, columns): + """Reindex a numeric panel onto (dates x columns).""" + if panel is None: + return None + return panel.reindex(index=dates, columns=columns).astype(float) + + def _simulate_pnl( + self, + returns: pd.DataFrame, + tradable_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + universe_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + limit_up: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + limit_down: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + daily_volume: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + volatility: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + raw_prices: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + ) -> None: + """Simulate daily P&L with costs and an execution-day tradability gate. + + ``daily_volume`` is a share-volume panel (provider unit). When + ``raw_prices`` (unadjusted CNY close) is supplied, their product is + converted to causal CNY ADV using a 60-session median (minimum 20 + observations) shifted one session before being handed to the cost + model. Without ``raw_prices`` the panel is dropped (warning) so the + cost model falls back to its fixed slippage instead of treating share + counts as CNY. Between executions, weights drift with price movements. On an execution date, the new weights take effect at that close, turnover is computed against the held weights, and the cost is charged for that day -- so `turnover_history` is indexed by execution date too. + + When ``tradable_mask`` / ``universe_mask`` / ``limit_up`` / + ``limit_down`` are supplied (B1, R6b), each asset's trade is checked + on the *execution* date, not the signal date: buys are blocked where + the asset is not tradable, not an index member, or closed limit-up; + sells are blocked where it is not tradable or closed limit-down -- + deliberately *not* by ``universe_mask``, so leaving the index never + traps a held position. Blocked deltas are retried on following days + until they fill or a newer rebalance supersedes them; no cost or + turnover is booked for a blocked trade. + + R18: sells settle before buys and buys are capped first by the gross + cash released, then by a conservative reserve for their estimated + transaction costs. If a blocked sell leaves insufficient gross cash, + the unfilled remainder stays deferred and the day is counted in + ``n_funding_scaled_days``. Cost-only sizing does not create endless + retries of an ideal fully-invested target. Executed positions and cash + are subsequently normalized by NAV after the same single cost debit. """ all_dates = returns.index.sort_values() + columns = returns.columns schedule = self._execution_schedule(returns) + gates_enabled = any( + panel is not None + for panel in (tradable_mask, universe_mask, limit_up, limit_down) + ) + mask_panel = self._align_gate(tradable_mask, all_dates, columns, True) + universe_panel = self._align_gate( + universe_mask, all_dates, columns, True, + ) + up_panel = self._align_gate(limit_up, all_dates, columns, False) + down_panel = self._align_gate(limit_down, all_dates, columns, False) + if gates_enabled: + # Supplying one gate panel must not dereference the others the + # caller omitted (the gate check indexes all of them). The + # neutral values are "tradable"/"member" and "not at the limit". + if mask_panel is None: + mask_panel = pd.DataFrame(True, index=all_dates, columns=columns) + if universe_panel is None: + universe_panel = pd.DataFrame( + True, index=all_dates, columns=columns, + ) + if up_panel is None: + up_panel = pd.DataFrame(False, index=all_dates, columns=columns) + if down_panel is None: + down_panel = pd.DataFrame(False, index=all_dates, columns=columns) + if daily_volume is not None and raw_prices is None: + # A share panel cannot be handed to a cost model that expects + # CNY. Rather than silently overstating participation by ~price, + # drop the volume so the cost model falls back to its configured + # fixed slippage and says so. + logger.warning( + "daily_volume is a share panel but raw_prices was not " + "supplied; dropping the volume so the cost model falls back " + "to fixed slippage. Pass raw_prices (unadjusted CNY close) " + "to use volume-dependent slippage." + ) + volume_panel = None + price_panel = None + else: + volume_panel = self._align_float(daily_volume, all_dates, columns) + # Only needed to turn share volume into CNY for the cost model; + # skip the full-panel copy on the default (no-volume) path. + price_panel = ( + self._align_float(raw_prices, all_dates, columns) + if daily_volume is not None and raw_prices is not None + else None + ) + if volume_panel is not None and price_panel is not None: + # Cost participation uses causal ADV, not the execution day's + # realized volume. Row d contains only CNY amounts through + # d-1; zero/missing results are handled per asset downstream. + volume_panel = ( + (volume_panel * price_panel) + .rolling(60, min_periods=20) + .median() + .shift(1) + ) + + vol_panel = self._align_float(volatility, all_dates, columns) + if ( + vol_panel is None + and getattr(self.cost_model, "slippage_model", "fixed") == "impact" + ): + # At close(d) only returns dated before d are observable (row d is + # the close(d)->close(d+1) return). Shifted rolling std gives the + # impact model a causal daily-volatility estimate. + vol_panel = ( + returns.rolling(20, min_periods=5).std().shift(1).reindex( + index=all_dates, columns=columns, + ).fillna(0.02) + ) + + self.total_cost_drag = 0.0 + self.n_funding_scaled_days = 0 + self._executed_signal_dates = set() capital = self.initial_capital - current_weights = pd.Series(0.0, index=returns.columns) + current_weights = pd.Series(0.0, index=columns) daily_ret_list = [] turnover_records = [] next_idx = 0 + pending_rdate: pd.Timestamp | None = None + pending_target: pd.Series | None = None + pending_assets: pd.Index = pd.Index([]) for date in all_dates: rebalance_cost = 0.0 + # At most one funding-scale warning per execution day (R18). + funding_scaled_today = False + + # A scheduled rebalance starts on its execution date. If a previous + # rebalance still has blocked deltas outstanding, the newer signal + # supersedes it: its target was computed with older information. if next_idx < len(schedule) and date >= schedule[next_idx][0]: - exec_date, rdate = schedule[next_idx] - target_weights = self.weights_history.get(rdate, current_weights) - target_weights = target_weights.reindex(returns.columns, fill_value=0.0) - - turnover = (target_weights - current_weights).abs().sum() / 2 - if turnover > 0: - # `turnover` is one-sided (the convention documented in - # portfolio/constraints.py), but CostModel.compute_costs - # charges commission and slippage on the value it is given - # and halves stamp tax on the assumption that half of it is - # sells -- which only holds for the *two-way* traded value. - # Passing one-sided turnover halved every component. - rebalance_cost = self.cost_model.compute_costs(turnover * 2) - turnover_records.append((exec_date, turnover)) - - current_weights = target_weights.copy() + _, rdate = schedule[next_idx] + if pending_rdate is not None and len(pending_assets): + logger.warning( + "Rebalance %s superseded by %s before its blocked trades " + "could execute (%d asset(s))", + str(pending_rdate)[:10], str(rdate)[:10], len(pending_assets), + ) + pending_rdate = rdate + pending_target = self.weights_history.get( + rdate, current_weights, + ).reindex(columns, fill_value=0.0) + pending_assets = pending_target.index next_idx += 1 + if pending_rdate is not None and pending_target is not None: + target = pending_target + candidates = pending_assets + delta = (target - current_weights).reindex( + candidates, fill_value=0.0, + ) + + if gates_enabled: + allowed = pd.Series(True, index=candidates) + buys = delta.index[delta > 0] + sells = delta.index[delta < 0] + if len(buys): + # Buys require both tradability and index membership. + allowed.loc[buys] = ( + mask_panel.loc[date].reindex(buys) + & universe_panel.loc[date].reindex(buys) + & ~up_panel.loc[date].reindex(buys) + ) + if len(sells): + # Sells check tradability and limit-down only: an + # index exit must not prevent closing the position. + allowed.loc[sells] = ( + mask_panel.loc[date].reindex(sells) + & ~down_panel.loc[date].reindex(sells) + ) + allowed = allowed.fillna(True).astype(bool) + else: + allowed = pd.Series(True, index=candidates) + + executable_delta = delta.where(allowed, 0.0) + turnover = float(executable_delta.abs().sum()) / 2.0 + + # Enforce the turnover cap at execution time too. Optimizer + # constraints only see target-level turnover, while realized + # turnover also includes weight drift and candidate-set + # changes; without this clamp the reported 0.44 could exceed + # the configured 0.30 even when the optimizer "succeeded". + # Initial deployment from cash is exempt: the cap governs + # rebalancing an existing portfolio, and clamping the first + # purchase would make a fully-invested mandate unreachable. + if ( + float(current_weights.sum()) > 1e-12 + and self.constraints.max_turnover < 1.0 + and turnover > self.constraints.max_turnover + ): + scale = self.constraints.max_turnover / turnover + executable_delta = executable_delta * scale + turnover = float(executable_delta.abs().sum()) / 2.0 + + # R18: sells settle first; buys are then funded from real cash + # only. `available_cash` is what the allowed sells leave + # uninvested. When a sell is blocked (limit-down/suspension) + # while the target still buys, the requested buys can exceed + # it; scaling every buy by one common factor preserves the + # target's relative ordering and never lifts a weight (so the + # optimizer's max_weight still bounds the rebalance target). + # The old code applied the buys unconditionally and clipped + # negative cash to zero in the drift step, i.e. it ran + # cost-free hidden leverage. The unfilled buy remainder is + # returned to the deferred queue below. + funding_scale = 1.0 + total_buys = 0.0 + available_cash = 0.0 + if len(candidates): + sell_delta = executable_delta.clip(upper=0.0) + buy_delta = executable_delta.clip(lower=0.0) + total_buys = float(buy_delta.sum()) + if total_buys > 0.0: + available_cash = max( + 0.0, + 1.0 - ( + float(current_weights.sum()) + + float(sell_delta.sum()) + ), + ) + if total_buys > available_cash + _FUNDING_TOL: + # Cash below the tolerance is zero. Without this, + # a fully-invested book whose drifted sum is + # 0.9999999999999999 leaves ~1e-16 of "cash" and + # the scaled buys become dust orders, each paying + # the cost model's per-order minimum commission. + if available_cash <= _FUNDING_TOL: + available_cash = 0.0 + funding_scale = available_cash / total_buys + executable_delta = ( + sell_delta + buy_delta * funding_scale + ) + turnover = ( + float(executable_delta.abs().sum()) / 2.0 + ) + if not funding_scaled_today: + funding_scaled_today = True + self.n_funding_scaled_days += 1 + logger.warning( + "Rebalance %s: buy orders at %s scaled to " + "%.4f of the requested amount by available " + "cash (%.4f available vs %.4f requested)", + str(pending_rdate)[:10], str(date)[:10], + funding_scale, available_cash, total_buys, + ) + + if turnover > 0 and capital > 0: + volume_row = None + if volume_panel is not None and date in volume_panel.index: + volume_row = volume_panel.loc[date] + if not volume_row.notna().any(): + volume_row = None + + vol_row = None + if vol_panel is not None and date in vol_panel.index: + vol_row = vol_panel.loc[date] + if not vol_row.notna().any(): + vol_row = None + + # Estimate once at the gross-funded size. If fees make the + # buys unaffordable, subtract that entire deficit from the + # buy amount and recompute. Every production cost component + # is non-increasing when buys shrink, so using the original + # (larger) cost is a conservative deterministic reserve; + # no iterative fixed-point solve is needed. R18's separate + # funding_scale still governs deferral of gross-cash blocks. + for cost_pass in range(2): + # The cost model receives actual per-asset buy/sell CNY + # notionals, so every component is charged on the right + # side and the returned values are fractions of capital. + buy_value = executable_delta.clip(lower=0.0) + sell_value = (-executable_delta).clip(lower=0.0) + buy_notional = buy_value * capital + sell_notional = sell_value * capital + costs = self.cost_model.compute_costs( + float(buy_notional.sum() + sell_notional.sum()), + buy_turnover=buy_notional, + sell_turnover=sell_notional, + daily_volume=volume_row, + volatility=vol_row, + date=date, + portfolio_value=capital, + ) + rebalance_cost = float(np.sum(costs)) + + executed_buys = float(buy_value.sum()) + cash_after_costs = ( + available_cash - executed_buys - rebalance_cost + ) + if ( + cost_pass == 1 + or executed_buys <= 0.0 + or cash_after_costs >= 0.0 + ): + break + + affordable_buys = max( + 0.0, executed_buys + cash_after_costs, + ) + if affordable_buys <= _FUNDING_TOL: + affordable_buys = 0.0 + executable_delta = ( + executable_delta.clip(upper=0.0) + + buy_value * (affordable_buys / executed_buys) + ) + turnover = float(executable_delta.abs().sum()) / 2.0 + + self.total_cost_drag += rebalance_cost + + if turnover > 0: + # `executable_delta` may cover only a retry subset; + # label-aware addition keeps every other position. + current_weights = current_weights.add( + executable_delta, fill_value=0.0, + ).clip(lower=0.0) + turnover_records.append((date, turnover)) + self._executed_signal_dates.add(pending_rdate) + # Record the affordable trades, not the pre-clamp target. + self.weights_history[pending_rdate] = current_weights.copy() + + if gates_enabled: + blocked = allowed[~allowed & (delta.abs() > 1e-12)].index + else: + blocked = pd.Index([]) + if funding_scale < 1.0: + # Buys the cash constraint could not fund stay deferred + # and are retried like gate-blocked trades, instead of + # being dropped (which would silently abandon the target). + residual = (target - current_weights).reindex( + candidates, fill_value=0.0, + ) + funding_blocked = residual[residual > 1e-12].index + if len(funding_blocked): + blocked = blocked.union(funding_blocked) + pending_assets = blocked + if len(pending_assets) == 0: + if ( + pending_rdate is not None + and float((target - current_weights).abs().sum()) < 1e-9 + ): + self._executed_signal_dates.add(pending_rdate) + pending_rdate = None + pending_target = None + daily_ret_assets = returns.loc[date].reindex(current_weights.index, fill_value=0.0) portfolio_return = (current_weights * daily_ret_assets).sum() daily_ret = portfolio_return - rebalance_cost @@ -303,6 +1072,23 @@ def _simulate_pnl(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> None: capital = capital * (1 + daily_ret) + # Drift the held weights with prices. The old code reused the + # target vector forever, which silently rebalanced to target every + # day: a winner was sold down daily, drift turnover never happened, + # and every reported backtest was a daily-rebalanced portfolio. + if current_weights.sum() > 1e-12: + growth = current_weights * (1.0 + daily_ret_assets.fillna(0.0)) + # Cash also pays the execution cost. The NAV deduction above + # and this denominator are two views of the same debit, not + # two charges: growth + cash now equals 1 + daily_ret exactly. + cash_weight = max( + 0.0, + 1.0 - float(current_weights.sum()) - rebalance_cost, + ) + total_value = float(growth.sum()) + cash_weight + if total_value > 1e-12: + current_weights = growth / total_value + self.daily_returns = pd.Series(daily_ret_list, index=all_dates, name="strategy_return") self.portfolio_values = self.initial_capital * (1 + self.daily_returns).cumprod() self.portfolio_values.name = "portfolio_value" diff --git a/backtest/metrics.py b/backtest/metrics.py index 0e53bf2..ef0e562 100644 --- a/backtest/metrics.py +++ b/backtest/metrics.py @@ -16,45 +16,144 @@ TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR = 252 -def annualized_return(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: - """Compound annual growth rate.""" - total_return = (1 + daily_returns).prod() - 1 - years = len(daily_returns) / TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR +def _dropna(values): + return values.dropna() if isinstance(values, pd.Series) else values + + +def annualization_years(daily_returns, periods_per_year: float | None = None) -> float: + """Calendar years covered by a periodic return series. + + The old convention was ``len(returns) / 252``: a fixed 252-day year for + every sample, whatever the index actually spanned. A-share samples have + ~242 sessions/year, calendar-daily NAV series have 365 observations/year, + and walk-forward OOS aggregates have gaps -- so that convention + mis-annualized all of them (M15). The default here measures the index + span in calendar time and adds one median observation step, because the + series is labelled by period *start*: the last return completes one + period after its label. + + Args: + daily_returns: Series (or array) of periodic returns. + periods_per_year: Explicit override. When given, years is + ``len(returns) / periods_per_year`` and the index is ignored. + + Returns: + Elapsed years. Falls back to ``len / 252`` when the input has no + usable DatetimeIndex. + """ + values = _dropna(daily_returns) + n = len(values) + if n == 0: + return 0.0 + if periods_per_year is not None: + return n / float(periods_per_year) if periods_per_year > 0 else 0.0 + + index = getattr(values, "index", None) + if isinstance(index, pd.DatetimeIndex) and n >= 2: + span_days = float((index[-1] - index[0]) / pd.Timedelta(days=1)) + steps = np.diff(index.view("int64")) / (86_400 * 1_000_000_000) + if len(steps): + span_days += max(float(np.median(steps)), 0.0) + if span_days > 0: + return span_days / 365.25 + return n / TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR + + +def infer_periods_per_year(daily_returns) -> float: + """Observations per calendar year implied by the sample's index span. + + A daily A-share series returns ~242; calendar-daily NAV data returns + ~365; weekly data returns ~52. Falls back to 252 when the index carries + no usable time span. + """ + values = _dropna(daily_returns) + years = annualization_years(values) + if years > 0: + return len(values) / years + return float(TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR) + + +def annualized_return( + daily_returns: pd.Series, periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: + """Compound annual growth rate over the sample's calendar span. + + ``periods_per_year`` forces the old ``len / N`` convention; when omitted + the elapsed calendar time of the index is used (see + :func:`annualization_years`). + """ + values = daily_returns.dropna() + total_return = (1 + values).prod() - 1 + years = annualization_years(values, periods_per_year) if years < 1 / 252: return 0.0 return (1 + total_return) ** (1 / years) - 1 -def annualized_volatility(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: - """Annualized standard deviation of daily returns.""" - return daily_returns.std() * np.sqrt(TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR) +def annualized_volatility( + daily_returns: pd.Series, periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: + """Annualized standard deviation of periodic returns.""" + values = daily_returns.dropna() + ppy = ( + float(periods_per_year) + if periods_per_year is not None + else infer_periods_per_year(values) + ) + return values.std() * np.sqrt(ppy) -def sharpe_ratio(daily_returns: pd.Series, risk_free: float = 0.03) -> float: +def sharpe_ratio( + daily_returns: pd.Series, + risk_free: float = 0.03, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: """Sharpe ratio = (annualized return - rf) / annualized vol.""" - ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns) - ann_vol = annualized_volatility(daily_returns) + ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns, periods_per_year) + ann_vol = annualized_volatility(daily_returns, periods_per_year) if ann_vol < 1e-10: return 0.0 return (ann_ret - risk_free) / ann_vol -def sortino_ratio(daily_returns: pd.Series, risk_free: float = 0.03) -> float: - """Sortino ratio: uses downside deviation instead of total vol.""" - ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns) - downside = daily_returns[daily_returns < 0] - if len(downside) < 2: +def sortino_ratio( + daily_returns: pd.Series, + risk_free: float = 0.03, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: + """Sortino ratio: excess return over downside deviation. + + Downside deviation is ``sqrt(mean(min(r - MAR, 0)^2))`` over *all* + observations. Taking the standard deviation of only the negative returns + (the old implementation) measures their dispersion around their own mean, + returns 0 for constant-sized losses, and ignores how often losses occur. + + The daily minimum acceptable return is ``risk_free / periods_per_year`` + with the same annualization basis as the other metrics. + """ + daily_returns = daily_returns.dropna() + if len(daily_returns) < 2: return 0.0 - downside_std = downside.std() * np.sqrt(TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR) - if downside_std < 1e-10: + ppy = ( + float(periods_per_year) + if periods_per_year is not None + else infer_periods_per_year(daily_returns) + ) + ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns, ppy) + daily_mar = risk_free / ppy + downside = np.minimum(daily_returns.to_numpy() - daily_mar, 0.0) + downside_dev = np.sqrt(np.mean(downside ** 2)) * np.sqrt(ppy) + if downside_dev < 1e-10: return 0.0 - return (ann_ret - risk_free) / downside_std + return (ann_ret - risk_free) / downside_dev def max_drawdown(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> tuple[float, pd.Timestamp, pd.Timestamp]: - """Maximum drawdown: largest peak-to-trough decline. + """Maximum drawdown: largest peak-to-trough decline, measured from inception. - Uses Numba JIT acceleration when available, falling back to Pandas. + The wealth path is prepended with 1.0 before the peak/trough scan: starting + at the first *return* made a first-day loss invisible, so a series + ``[-10%, -10%]`` reported -10% instead of the true -19%. Returns: (max_dd, peak_date, trough_date) @@ -64,51 +163,80 @@ def max_drawdown(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> tuple[float, pd.Timestamp, pd.Time max_drawdown_numba, ) + values = daily_returns.dropna() + if len(values) == 0: + return 0.0, pd.NaT, pd.NaT + if HAS_NUMBA: - max_dd, peak_idx, trough_idx = max_drawdown_numba(daily_returns) - - # Convert indices back to dates - cumulative = (1 + daily_returns.dropna()).cumprod() - dates = cumulative.index - peak_date = dates[peak_idx] - trough_date = dates[trough_idx] - return max_dd, peak_date, trough_date - - # Original Pandas implementation - cumulative = (1 + daily_returns).cumprod() - running_max = cumulative.expanding().max() - drawdown = (cumulative - running_max) / running_max - max_dd = drawdown.min() - trough_date = drawdown.idxmin() - peak_date = running_max.loc[:trough_date].idxmax() - return max_dd, peak_date, trough_date - - -def calmar_ratio(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: + max_dd, peak_idx, trough_idx = max_drawdown_numba(values) + else: + cumulative = np.concatenate(([1.0], (1 + values).cumprod().to_numpy())) + running_max = np.maximum.accumulate(cumulative) + drawdown = (cumulative - running_max) / running_max + max_dd = float(drawdown.min()) + trough_idx = int(drawdown.argmin()) + peak_idx = int(running_max[:trough_idx + 1].argmax()) + + # The wealth path is indexed by return-period *start*: the row dated t is + # the return close(t) -> close(t+1) (data/pipeline.py shifts by -1). Wealth + # index 0 is inception; wealth index k >= 1 is reached at the close of the + # k-th return, i.e. on the (k+1)-th label. Labelling it with index[k-1] + # was one trading day early (B10). Clamp the final return's close to the + # last available label. + last = len(values) - 1 + + def _close_date(wealth_idx: int) -> pd.Timestamp: + if wealth_idx <= 0: + return values.index[0] + return values.index[min(wealth_idx, last)] + + peak_date = _close_date(peak_idx) + trough_date = _close_date(trough_idx) + return float(max_dd), peak_date, trough_date + + +def calmar_ratio( + daily_returns: pd.Series, periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: """Calmar ratio = annualized return / max drawdown (absolute value).""" - ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns) + ann_ret = annualized_return(daily_returns, periods_per_year) mdd, _, _ = max_drawdown(daily_returns) if abs(mdd) < 1e-10: return 0.0 return ann_ret / abs(mdd) -def information_ratio( +def _aligned_excess( strategy_returns: pd.Series, benchmark_returns: pd.Series, -) -> float: - """Information ratio = mean excess return / std excess return (annualized).""" - # Handle duplicate index labels (can happen from walk-forward fold concat) +) -> pd.Series: + """Strategy minus benchmark on the common index (duplicates collapsed).""" if strategy_returns.index.duplicated().any(): strategy_returns = strategy_returns.groupby(strategy_returns.index).mean() if benchmark_returns.index.duplicated().any(): benchmark_returns = benchmark_returns.groupby(benchmark_returns.index).mean() - aligned = pd.DataFrame({"strategy": strategy_returns, "benchmark": benchmark_returns}).dropna() - excess = aligned["strategy"] - aligned["benchmark"] + aligned = pd.DataFrame({ + "strategy": strategy_returns, "benchmark": benchmark_returns, + }).dropna() + return aligned["strategy"] - aligned["benchmark"] + + +def information_ratio( + strategy_returns: pd.Series, + benchmark_returns: pd.Series, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, +) -> float: + """Information ratio = mean excess return / std excess return (annualized).""" + excess = _aligned_excess(strategy_returns, benchmark_returns) if len(excess) < 2: return 0.0 - ann_excess = excess.mean() * TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR - ann_tracking_error = excess.std() * np.sqrt(TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR) + ppy = ( + float(periods_per_year) + if periods_per_year is not None + else infer_periods_per_year(excess) + ) + ann_excess = excess.mean() * ppy + ann_tracking_error = excess.std() * np.sqrt(ppy) if ann_tracking_error < 1e-10: return 0.0 return ann_excess / ann_tracking_error @@ -117,27 +245,31 @@ def information_ratio( def tracking_error( strategy_returns: pd.Series, benchmark_returns: pd.Series, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, ) -> float: """Annualized tracking error.""" - # Handle duplicate index labels (can happen from walk-forward fold concat) - if strategy_returns.index.duplicated().any(): - strategy_returns = strategy_returns.groupby(strategy_returns.index).mean() - if benchmark_returns.index.duplicated().any(): - benchmark_returns = benchmark_returns.groupby(benchmark_returns.index).mean() - aligned = pd.DataFrame({"strategy": strategy_returns, "benchmark": benchmark_returns}).dropna() - excess = aligned["strategy"] - aligned["benchmark"] - return excess.std() * np.sqrt(TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR) + excess = _aligned_excess(strategy_returns, benchmark_returns) + ppy = ( + float(periods_per_year) + if periods_per_year is not None + else infer_periods_per_year(excess) + ) + return excess.std() * np.sqrt(ppy) def win_rate(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: - """Proportion of days with positive return.""" - return (daily_returns > 0).mean() + """Proportion of days with positive return (NaN observations ignored).""" + values = daily_returns.dropna() + if len(values) == 0: + return 0.0 + return (values > 0).mean() def profit_loss_ratio(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: - """Average gain on winning days / average loss on losing days.""" - gains = daily_returns[daily_returns > 0] - losses = daily_returns[daily_returns < 0] + """Average gain on winning days / average loss on losing days (NaN ignored).""" + values = daily_returns.dropna() + gains = values[values > 0] + losses = values[values < 0] if len(losses) == 0 or len(gains) == 0: return 0.0 avg_gain = gains.mean() @@ -150,38 +282,86 @@ def profit_loss_ratio(daily_returns: pd.Series) -> float: def all_metrics( strategy_returns: pd.Series, benchmark_returns: pd.Series | None = None, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, + risk_free: float = 0.03, ) -> dict: """Compute all performance metrics at once. - Returns dict with all metrics as scalar values for easy reporting. + Args: + strategy_returns: Periodic strategy returns. + benchmark_returns: Optional benchmark returns on the same clock. + periods_per_year: Annualization override. When omitted it is inferred + from the strategy index span (~252 for synthetic business-day + data, ~242 for real A-share sessions, 365 for calendar-daily NAV + data). Risk-free is annual, converted to a per-period MAR with + the same basis. + risk_free: Annual risk-free rate, default 3%. + + Returns: + Dict of scalar metrics. When a benchmark is supplied, ``total_return`` + / ``benchmark_total_return`` / ``excess_return`` are all computed on + the *common* index (M11), so the excess is a like-for-like difference + even when the benchmark series is shorter than the strategy series. + ``benchmark_coverage`` reports the fraction of strategy observations + the benchmark covers. """ sr = strategy_returns.dropna() if len(sr) < 10: return {} + ppy = ( + float(periods_per_year) + if periods_per_year is not None + else infer_periods_per_year(sr) + ) + mdd, peak_dt, trough_dt = max_drawdown(sr) metrics = { - "annual_return": annualized_return(sr), - "annual_volatility": annualized_volatility(sr), - "sharpe_ratio": sharpe_ratio(sr), - "sortino_ratio": sortino_ratio(sr), + "annual_return": annualized_return(sr, ppy), + "annual_volatility": annualized_volatility(sr, ppy), + "sharpe_ratio": sharpe_ratio(sr, risk_free, ppy), + "sortino_ratio": sortino_ratio(sr, risk_free, ppy), "max_drawdown": mdd, "max_drawdown_peak": str(peak_dt.date()) if pd.notna(peak_dt) else None, "max_drawdown_trough": str(trough_dt.date()) if pd.notna(trough_dt) else None, - "calmar_ratio": calmar_ratio(sr), + "calmar_ratio": calmar_ratio(sr, ppy), "win_rate": win_rate(sr), "profit_loss_ratio": profit_loss_ratio(sr), "total_return": (1 + sr).prod() - 1, "total_days": len(sr), + "periods_per_year": float(ppy), + "annualization_years": annualization_years(sr, ppy), + "risk_free_rate": risk_free, } if benchmark_returns is not None: - br = benchmark_returns.reindex(sr.index).dropna() - metrics["information_ratio"] = information_ratio(sr.loc[br.index], br) - metrics["tracking_error"] = tracking_error(sr.loc[br.index], br) - metrics["benchmark_total_return"] = (1 + br).prod() - 1 - metrics["excess_return"] = metrics["total_return"] - metrics["benchmark_total_return"] + br = benchmark_returns + if br.index.duplicated().any(): + br = br.groupby(br.index).mean() + aligned = pd.DataFrame({ + "strategy": sr, "benchmark": br, + }).dropna().sort_index() + if len(aligned): + metrics["information_ratio"] = information_ratio( + aligned["strategy"], aligned["benchmark"], ppy, + ) + metrics["tracking_error"] = tracking_error( + aligned["strategy"], aligned["benchmark"], ppy, + ) + metrics["benchmark_total_return"] = (1 + aligned["benchmark"]).prod() - 1 + # M11: both legs on the same window, so the difference is a + # genuine excess return rather than a 70-day compound minus a + # 100-day compound. + metrics["total_return"] = (1 + aligned["strategy"]).prod() - 1 + metrics["excess_return"] = ( + metrics["total_return"] - metrics["benchmark_total_return"] + ) + metrics["benchmark_days"] = len(aligned) + metrics["benchmark_coverage"] = len(aligned) / len(sr) + metrics["strategy_total_return_full_window"] = ( + (1 + sr).prod() - 1 + ) return metrics diff --git a/backtest/tick_engine.py b/backtest/tick_engine.py index 373a385..989caeb 100644 --- a/backtest/tick_engine.py +++ b/backtest/tick_engine.py @@ -53,6 +53,8 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +_NS_PER_DAY = 86_400 * 1_000_000_000 + # ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── # Data Models @@ -120,6 +122,8 @@ class BacktestConfig: commission_rate: float = 0.0003 min_commission: float = 5.0 stamp_tax_rate: float = 0.001 # Sell-side only + lot_size: int = 100 # Minimum trading unit (A-share: 100 shares) + t_plus: int = 1 # Shares bought on day t are sellable from t + t_plus max_position_pct: float = 0.05 # Max 5% per position max_order_size_pct: float = 0.01 # Max 1% of ADV per order @@ -144,6 +148,10 @@ class Position: unrealized_pnl: float = 0.0 realized_pnl: float = 0.0 market_value: float = 0.0 + # T+1 bookkeeping: shares bought during the current UTC day cannot be + # sold until the next one (B9). + today_bought_qty: int = 0 + last_buy_day: int | None = None def update_price(self, price: float): if self.quantity > 0: @@ -241,7 +249,10 @@ def generate_orders( return [] # Round to lot size - qty_per_slice = max(100, (qty_per_slice // 100) * 100) + lot = max(1, int(config.lot_size)) + qty_per_slice = (qty_per_slice // lot) * lot + if qty_per_slice <= 0: + return [] order = BookOrder( order_id=f"twap_{uuid.uuid4().hex[:8]}", @@ -279,9 +290,10 @@ def generate_orders( participation_qty = int(slice_volume * self.target_participation) # Cap at remaining quantity and participation limit + lot = max(1, int(config.lot_size)) max_qty = int(current_tick.quantity * config.participation_rate_limit) qty = min(participation_qty, target_quantity, max_qty) - qty = max(100, (qty // 100) * 100) # Round to lot + qty = (qty // lot) * lot # Round down to a whole lot if qty <= 0: return [] @@ -478,13 +490,22 @@ def _submit_order(self, order_spec: tuple, tick: Tick, book: OrderBook): logger.debug("Position limit reached for %s", symbol) return - # Check participation rate limit - max_qty = int(tick.volume * self.config.participation_rate_limit) if tick.volume > 0 else quantity - if quantity > max_qty: - quantity = max_qty - - # Round to lot size - quantity = max(100, (quantity // 100) * 100) + # Round to a whole lot *before* applying the participation cap, so + # rounding cannot lift the order back above the cap (B9). The cap is + # then floored to a whole lot too; if it is below one lot the order + # cannot be executed at all. + lot = max(1, int(self.config.lot_size)) + quantity = (quantity // lot) * lot + if tick.volume > 0: + max_qty = int(tick.volume * self.config.participation_rate_limit) + max_qty = (max_qty // lot) * lot + quantity = min(quantity, max_qty) + if quantity < lot: + logger.debug( + "Order for %s skipped: %d shares is below one %d-share lot " + "after the participation cap", symbol, quantity, lot, + ) + return # Estimate market impact impact = self.impact_model.estimate( @@ -525,40 +546,67 @@ def _submit_order(self, order_spec: tuple, tick: Tick, book: OrderBook): elif order.status == BookOrderStatus.CANCELLED: self._orders_cancelled += 1 - def _process_fill(self, trade: Trade, tick: Tick, impact: MarketImpact): - """Process a fill: update positions, cash, and log.""" + def _process_fill(self, trade: Trade, tick: Tick, impact: MarketImpact) -> bool: + """Process a fill: update positions, cash, and log. + + Only an *executed* fill touches the ledger (B9). The old code updated + commission/tax/volume and appended a trade even when the sell was + rejected for insufficient holdings. Sells also respect T+1: shares + bought on the current day cannot be sold until ``t_plus`` days later. + + Returns: + True when the fill executed, False when it was rejected. + """ symbol = trade.symbol price = trade.price qty = trade.quantity side = trade.aggressor_side + if qty <= 0: + return False - # Commission - notional = price * qty - commission = max(notional * self.config.commission_rate, self.config.min_commission) - tax = (notional * self.config.stamp_tax_rate) if side == Side.SELL else 0.0 - - # Update position - if symbol not in self.positions: - self.positions[symbol] = Position(symbol=symbol) - - pos = self.positions[symbol] + day = int(tick.timestamp_ns) // _NS_PER_DAY + pos = self.positions.get(symbol) if side == Side.BUY: - # Buy: increase position + if pos is None: + pos = Position(symbol=symbol) + self.positions[symbol] = pos + if pos.last_buy_day != day: + pos.today_bought_qty = 0 total_qty = pos.quantity + qty - if total_qty > 0: - pos.avg_cost = (pos.avg_cost * pos.quantity + price * qty) / total_qty + pos.avg_cost = (pos.avg_cost * pos.quantity + price * qty) / total_qty pos.quantity = total_qty + pos.today_bought_qty += qty + pos.last_buy_day = day + else: + if pos is None: + logger.debug("Rejected sell of %s: no position", symbol) + return False + sellable = pos.quantity + if self.config.t_plus > 0 and pos.last_buy_day == day: + sellable -= pos.today_bought_qty + if qty > sellable: + logger.debug( + "Rejected sell of %d %s: only %d share(s) are sellable " + "(T+%d)", qty, symbol, max(sellable, 0), self.config.t_plus, + ) + return False + + notional = price * qty + commission = max( + notional * self.config.commission_rate, self.config.min_commission, + ) + tax = (notional * self.config.stamp_tax_rate) if side == Side.SELL else 0.0 + + if side == Side.BUY: self.capital -= notional + commission + tax else: - # Sell: decrease position - if pos.quantity >= qty: - realized = (price - pos.avg_cost) * qty - pos.realized_pnl += realized - pos.quantity -= qty - self.capital += notional - commission - tax - if pos.quantity <= 0: - del self.positions[symbol] + realized = (price - pos.avg_cost) * qty + pos.realized_pnl += realized + pos.quantity -= qty + self.capital += notional - commission - tax + if pos.quantity <= 0: + del self.positions[symbol] # Track costs self._total_commission += commission @@ -577,6 +625,7 @@ def _process_fill(self, trade: Trade, tick: Tick, impact: MarketImpact): "tax": tax, "impact_bps": round(impact.total / price * 10000, 2) if price > 0 else 0, }) + return True def _compute_equity(self, tick: Tick) -> float: """Compute current total equity.""" diff --git a/backtest/walkforward.py b/backtest/walkforward.py index b087802..017531a 100644 --- a/backtest/walkforward.py +++ b/backtest/walkforward.py @@ -9,10 +9,16 @@ When `factors` dict is provided, signals are recomputed per fold using only train-period data — eliminating look-ahead from IC/ICIR weighting. + +An optional ``factor_selector`` can pick the factor subset *inside each fold* +from that fold's training window only (see :data:`FactorSelector`). The +default (``None``) keeps the historical behaviour bit for bit. """ from __future__ import annotations +from collections.abc import Callable, Sequence + import numpy as np import pandas as pd @@ -22,6 +28,28 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +#: Per-fold factor selector. +#: +#: Called once per fold, before that fold's signal is computed, as +#: +#: ``selector(fold_info, factors, forward_returns) -> iterable of factor names`` +#: +#: * ``fold_info``: the fold metadata dict. ``fold_info["train_positions"]`` +#: holds the integer positions (into the validator's date axis) usable for +#: training — the nominal training window minus embargo days. The dict also +#: carries ``fold``, ``train_slice``, ``test_slice``, ``train_dates``, +#: ``test_dates``, ``train_days`` and ``embargo_ranges``. +#: * ``factors``: the full ``{name: (date x asset) panel}`` mapping. +#: * ``forward_returns``: the same forward-return panel the in-sample signal +#: computation uses (``t -> t+1`` labels). +#: +#: The returned names must be existing keys of ``factors``; only those panels +#: feed the fold's :meth:`WalkForwardValidator._compute_signal_in_sample`. +#: Returning an empty iterable skips the fold (recorded in ``fold_details``, +#: never fabricated). Exceptions raised by the selector abort the run. +FactorSelector = Callable[[dict, dict[str, pd.DataFrame], pd.DataFrame], Sequence[str]] + + class WalkForwardValidator: """Walk-forward validation for backtesting strategies. @@ -37,6 +65,23 @@ class WalkForwardValidator: If `factors` dict is provided, signals are recomputed per fold using only train-period data — eliminating look-ahead from IC/ICIR weighting and making the OOS evaluation truly representative of live performance. + + Purge / embargo isolation (same terminology as `alpha.ml_signal`): + + - ``purge_gap``: each fold's test window starts ``purge_gap`` trading days + after its training window ends. Those days are neither trained nor + tested, so labels from the end of the training window cannot spill into + the test window. purge_gap：测试窗起点相对训练窗终点向后推迟 + purge_gap 个交易日，这段空隙既不训练也不测试。 + - ``embargo``: when training any fold, the ``embargo`` trading days that + immediately follow an earlier fold's test window are removed from the + training sample (only when that training window covers those days). + Freshly tested market conditions must not flow straight back into the + next fit. embargo：此前某个 fold 的测试窗结束后的 embargo 个交易日 + 从后续 fold 的训练样本中剔除。 + + The rolling/expanding window advancement is unchanged, and the fold count + is still capped by ``n_folds``. """ def __init__( @@ -45,11 +90,41 @@ def __init__( test_period: int = 126, # ~6 months step_size: int = 126, # Step forward by test_period mode: str = "rolling", # "rolling" or "expanding" + n_folds: int | None = None, + purge_gap: int = 0, # trading days between train end and test start + embargo: int = 0, # trading days after a prior test window excluded from training ): + # M22: `start += step_size` never advanced for step_size <= 0, so the + # fold loop spun forever (or sliced invalid windows). Validate the + # window arithmetic at construction instead of hanging a worker. + for name, value in ( + ("train_period", train_period), + ("test_period", test_period), + ("step_size", step_size), + ): + if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance(value, (int, np.integer)): + raise ValueError(f"{name} must be an integer >= 1, got {value!r}") + if value < 1: + raise ValueError(f"{name} must be >= 1, got {value!r}") + if mode not in ("rolling", "expanding"): + raise ValueError(f"mode must be 'rolling' or 'expanding', got {mode!r}") + # purge_gap / embargo may be 0 but never negative: both are offsets + # into the trading-day axis, and a negative gap would silently turn + # the test window into an in-sample slice. + for name, value in (("purge_gap", purge_gap), ("embargo", embargo)): + if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance(value, (int, np.integer)): + raise ValueError(f"{name} must be an integer >= 0, got {value!r}") + if value < 0: + raise ValueError(f"{name} must be >= 0, got {value!r}") self.train_period = train_period self.test_period = test_period self.step_size = step_size self.mode = mode + if n_folds is not None and n_folds < 1: + raise ValueError(f"n_folds must be >= 1, got {n_folds}") + self.n_folds = n_folds + self.purge_gap = int(purge_gap) + self.embargo = int(embargo) def run( self, @@ -62,6 +137,19 @@ def run( engine_kwargs: dict | None = None, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] | None = None, alpha_kwargs: dict | None = None, + cost_model=None, + constraints=None, + optimizer: str | None = None, + benchmark: str | None = None, + covariance_method: str | None = None, + covariance_lookback: int | None = None, + covariance_ewma_half_life: int | None = None, + execution_timing: str | None = None, + risk_free_rate: float | None = None, + periods_per_year: float | None = None, + execution_gates: dict | None = None, + factor_selector: FactorSelector | None = None, + rank_normalize_signal: bool = False, ) -> dict: """Run walk-forward validation. @@ -72,6 +160,36 @@ def run( train-period data. Eliminates look-ahead from IC weighting. alpha_kwargs: Dict with 'method', 'lookback', 'min_icir' for signal recomputation. Required when factors is provided. + factor_selector: Optional per-fold factor selector (see + :data:`FactorSelector`). Called once per fold with that fold's + ``train_positions`` (embargo already removed), the full factor + panels and the forward-return panel; the returned names are + the only factors fed to that fold's signal recomputation. An + empty selection skips the fold and records it in + ``fold_details``; selector exceptions abort the run. Default + ``None`` recomputes every fold from all ``factors`` exactly as + before. + rank_normalize_signal: When True, every fold's signal is converted + to a cross-sectional percentile rank in ``[-0.5, 0.5]`` + (``rank(pct=True) - 0.5``) before it reaches the engine and + the optimizer. The transformation uses only each row's own + cross-section, so it introduces no look-ahead; rows with fewer + than two valid values are left untouched (NaN stays NaN) and + the signal keeps its original values there. This matches the + optimizer's documented rank-alpha convention + (``ALPHA_ANNUAL_SCALE`` maps the full rank span to +/-2% + annual excess return). Default ``False`` keeps the historical + signal bit for bit. + engine_kwargs: Raw BacktestEngine keyword arguments. + cost_model, constraints, optimizer, benchmark, covariance_method, + covariance_lookback, covariance_ewma_half_life, execution_timing, + risk_free_rate, periods_per_year: + First-class execution-model settings forwarded to every fold's + ``BacktestEngine`` (B3). They are merged over ``engine_kwargs`` + (explicit values win). The old contract only forwarded what the + CLI happened to put in a three-key dict, so a configured + CostModel/optimizer/covariance silently reverted to engine + defaults for every OOS fold. Returns: dict with keys: @@ -82,10 +200,38 @@ def run( - fold_details: train/test date ranges per fold - n_folds: number of folds used - signal_recomputed: True if signal was recomputed per fold + + When ``factor_selector`` is used, every ``fold_metrics`` / + ``fold_details`` entry also carries ``selected_factors`` (the list + that fold's signal was computed from). With the default + ``factor_selector=None`` these dicts keep their historical shape. """ - engine_kwargs = engine_kwargs or {} + engine_kwargs = dict(engine_kwargs or {}) + explicit_engine_config = { + "cost_model": cost_model, + "constraints": constraints, + "optimizer": optimizer, + "benchmark": benchmark, + "covariance_method": covariance_method, + "covariance_lookback": covariance_lookback, + "covariance_ewma_half_life": covariance_ewma_half_life, + "execution_timing": execution_timing, + "risk_free_rate": risk_free_rate, + "periods_per_year": periods_per_year, + } + engine_kwargs.update({ + key: value for key, value in explicit_engine_config.items() + if value is not None + }) alpha_kwargs = alpha_kwargs or {} signal_recomputed = factors is not None + if factor_selector is not None and factors is None: + # Nothing to select from a pre-computed signal; a selector here + # would be silently ignored, which is worse than a clear error. + raise ValueError( + "factor_selector requires factors: there is nothing to select " + "from a pre-computed signal" + ) dates = signal.index n_dates = len(dates) @@ -95,40 +241,12 @@ def run( f"Not enough data: {n_dates} days < {self.train_period} train + {self.test_period} test" ) - folds = [] - start = 0 - fold_idx = 0 - - while True: - if self.mode == "expanding": - train_start = 0 - else: - train_start = start + folds = self._generate_folds(dates) - train_end = start + self.train_period - test_start = train_end - test_end = min(test_start + self.test_period, n_dates) - - if test_start >= n_dates: - break - - folds.append({ - "fold": fold_idx, - "train_dates": (dates[train_start], dates[min(train_end - 1, n_dates - 1)]), - "test_dates": (dates[test_start], dates[min(test_end - 1, n_dates - 1)]), - "train_slice": slice(train_start, train_end), - "test_slice": slice(test_start, test_end), - }) - - fold_idx += 1 - start += self.step_size - - if test_end >= n_dates: - break - - logger.info("Walk-forward: %d folds (%s mode, train=%d, test=%d, step=%d, recomputed=%s)", - len(folds), self.mode, self.train_period, self.test_period, self.step_size, - signal_recomputed) + logger.info("Walk-forward: %d folds (%s mode, train=%d, test=%d, step=%d, " + "purge_gap=%d, embargo=%d, recomputed=%s)", + len(folds), self.mode, self.train_period, self.test_period, + self.step_size, self.purge_gap, self.embargo, signal_recomputed) oos_returns_list = [] oos_benchmark_list = [] @@ -141,13 +259,80 @@ def run( test_sl = fold_info["test_slice"] # --- Build signal for this fold --- + selected_factors: list[str] | None = None if factors is not None: + if fold_info["train_days"] == 0: + # An out-sized embargo can remove every day of a later + # fold's training window. There is nothing to fit on -- + # record the fold instead of fabricating a signal. + logger.warning( + " Fold %d skipped: embargo removed every training day", fi, + ) + detail = { + "fold": fi, + "train": f"{fold_info['train_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['train_dates'][1]}", + "test": f"{fold_info['test_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['test_dates'][1]}", + "train_days": 0, + "oos_days": 0, + "error": "embargo removed every training day", + } + if factor_selector is not None: + detail["selected_factors"] = [] + fold_details.append(detail) + continue + fold_factors = factors + if factor_selector is not None: + # Choose this fold's factors from its training window only + # (train_positions already excludes embargo days). The + # selector must never see the test window as training + # input; test-period factor *values* are still observable + # and are used by the signal recomputation itself. + selected_factors, fold_factors = self._select_fold_factors( + factor_selector, fold_info, factors, returns, + ) + if not selected_factors: + # Nothing survives this fold's training-window screen. + # Record the fold and move on -- never fabricate OOS. + logger.warning( + " Fold %d skipped: factor_selector selected no factors", fi, + ) + fold_details.append({ + "fold": fi, + "train": f"{fold_info['train_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['train_dates'][1]}", + "test": f"{fold_info['test_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['test_dates'][1]}", + "train_days": fold_info["train_days"], + "oos_days": 0, + "selected_factors": [], + "error": "factor_selector selected no factors", + }) + continue fold_signal = self._compute_signal_in_sample( - factors, returns, train_sl, test_sl, alpha_kwargs, + fold_factors, returns, train_sl, test_sl, alpha_kwargs, + train_positions=fold_info["train_positions"], ) else: - # Backward compatible: use pre-computed signal + # Backward compatible: use pre-computed signal. The real alpha + # stays test-only, but the *index* is extended back over the + # train window with NaN rows: the engine takes its rebalance + # dates from the signal index, and without those earlier + # month-ends it sat in cash for the first weeks of every test + # window (B4). NaN signal rows make the engine fall back to an + # equal-weight warm-up portfolio, which is held into the test + # window; no train-period alpha is leaked. fold_signal = signal.iloc[test_sl] + if train_sl.start < test_sl.start: + warmup_index = signal.index[train_sl.start:test_sl.start] + if len(warmup_index): + warmup = pd.DataFrame( + np.nan, index=warmup_index, columns=signal.columns, + ) + fold_signal = pd.concat([warmup, fold_signal]) + + if rank_normalize_signal: + # Align the signal with the optimizer's documented rank-alpha + # convention ([-0.5, 0.5]). Row-wise only: each date is + # ranked on its own cross-section, never across time. + fold_signal = self._rank_normalize_signal(fold_signal) test_prices = prices.iloc[test_sl] test_returns = returns.iloc[test_sl] @@ -156,18 +341,24 @@ def run( engine = BacktestEngine(**engine_kwargs) try: + # Feed the engine the full panel -- including the 252-day + # warm-up before the train window -- so the first fold + # rebalance estimates covariance on a full window. The old + # code sliced `.loc[fold_signal.index[0]:]`, discarding the + # warm-up it had just computed (B4). full_sl = slice(max(0, train_sl.start - 252), test_sl.stop) full_prices = prices.iloc[full_sl] full_returns = returns.iloc[full_sl] - if fold_signal.index[0] in full_prices.index: + if len(fold_signal) and fold_signal.index[0] in full_prices.index: result = engine.run( signal=fold_signal, - prices=full_prices.loc[fold_signal.index[0]:], - returns=full_returns.loc[fold_signal.index[0]:], + prices=full_prices, + returns=full_returns, benchmark_returns=test_benchmark, sector_map=sector_map, financials=financials.iloc[full_sl] if financials is not None else None, + **(execution_gates or {}), ) else: result = engine.run( @@ -177,6 +368,7 @@ def run( benchmark_returns=test_benchmark, sector_map=sector_map, financials=financials, + **(execution_gates or {}), ) # The engine is handed extra history so its first rebalance has @@ -205,16 +397,25 @@ def run( m["train_end"] = str(fold_info["train_dates"][1]) m["test_start"] = str(fold_info["test_dates"][0]) m["test_end"] = str(fold_info["test_dates"][1]) + # Trading days actually usable for training: the nominal + # window minus any embargo days removed from it. + m["train_days"] = fold_info["train_days"] m["oos_days"] = len(oos_ret) + if selected_factors is not None: + m["selected_factors"] = list(selected_factors) fold_metrics.append(m) - fold_details.append({ + detail = { "fold": fi, "train": f"{fold_info['train_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['train_dates'][1]}", "test": f"{fold_info['test_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['test_dates'][1]}", + "train_days": fold_info["train_days"], "oos_days": len(oos_ret), "sharpe": fold_metrics[-1].get("sharpe_ratio", 0) if fold_metrics else 0, - }) + } + if selected_factors is not None: + detail["selected_factors"] = list(selected_factors) + fold_details.append(detail) logger.info(" Fold %d: OOS %s -> %s (%d days, Sharpe=%.2f)", fi, fold_info["test_dates"][0], fold_info["test_dates"][1], @@ -222,13 +423,17 @@ def run( except Exception as e: logger.warning(" Fold %d failed: %s", fi, e) - fold_details.append({ + failure = { "fold": fi, "train": f"{fold_info['train_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['train_dates'][1]}", "test": f"{fold_info['test_dates'][0]} -> {fold_info['test_dates'][1]}", + "train_days": fold_info["train_days"], "oos_days": 0, "error": str(e)[:100], - }) + } + if selected_factors is not None: + failure["selected_factors"] = list(selected_factors) + fold_details.append(failure) if not oos_returns_list: raise ValueError("All walk-forward folds failed") @@ -267,9 +472,148 @@ def run( "mode": self.mode, "train_period": self.train_period, "test_period": self.test_period, + "purge_gap": self.purge_gap, + "embargo": self.embargo, "signal_recomputed": signal_recomputed, } + def _generate_folds(self, dates: pd.Index) -> list[dict]: + """Cut the timeline into train/test folds. + + Window arithmetic is the historical layout plus the optional purge + gap: the test window starts ``purge_gap`` trading days after the + training window ends, and the fold count is still capped by + ``n_folds``. Each fold also carries ``train_positions`` -- the integer + positions actually usable for training after embargo days are removed + -- and the removed ranges in ``embargo_ranges``. + + With ``purge_gap=0`` and ``embargo=0`` the boundaries are identical + to the pre-purge arithmetic. + """ + n_dates = len(dates) + folds = [] + start = 0 + fold_idx = 0 + + while True: + if self.mode == "expanding": + train_start = 0 + else: + train_start = start + + train_end = start + self.train_period + test_start = train_end + self.purge_gap + test_end = min(test_start + self.test_period, n_dates) + + if test_start >= n_dates: + break + + folds.append({ + "fold": fold_idx, + "train_dates": (dates[train_start], dates[min(train_end - 1, n_dates - 1)]), + "test_dates": (dates[test_start], dates[min(test_end - 1, n_dates - 1)]), + "train_slice": slice(train_start, train_end), + "test_slice": slice(test_start, test_end), + }) + + fold_idx += 1 + start += self.step_size + + if test_end >= n_dates: + break + + if self.n_folds is not None: + # The CLI exposes --folds; previously it only printed the value + # while the loop decided the count, so a request for one fold ran + # every fold the data allowed. + folds = folds[:self.n_folds] + + self._apply_embargo(folds, n_dates) + return folds + + def _apply_embargo(self, folds: list[dict], n_dates: int) -> None: + """Remove embargo days from each fold's training positions. + + For a fold at index ``i``, every earlier fold's test window end is + followed by ``embargo`` trading days. When the current *training* + window covers any of those days, they are withheld from training -- + the market regime that was just evaluated must not flow straight back + into the next fit. Windows ending at or after the training window end + leave it untouched; in the common rolling layout (step == + test_period) the immediately preceding test window ends exactly at + the current train end, so only older test windows contribute embargo + days there. + """ + for i, fold in enumerate(folds): + train_sl = fold["train_slice"] + positions = np.arange(train_sl.start, train_sl.stop, dtype=int) + removed = np.zeros(len(positions), dtype=bool) + embargo_ranges: list[tuple[int, int]] = [] + if self.embargo > 0: + for prev in folds[:i]: + lo = prev["test_slice"].stop + hi = min(lo + self.embargo, n_dates) + lo = max(lo, train_sl.start) + hi = min(hi, train_sl.stop) + if lo < hi: + removed[lo - train_sl.start:hi - train_sl.start] = True + embargo_ranges.append((int(lo), int(hi))) + fold["train_positions"] = positions[~removed] + fold["train_days"] = len(fold["train_positions"]) + fold["embargo_ranges"] = embargo_ranges + + @staticmethod + def _rank_normalize_signal(fold_signal: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Convert a fold signal to row-wise percentile ranks in [-0.5, 0.5]. + + ``fold_signal.rank(axis=1, pct=True) - 0.5`` looks at one date's + cross-section at a time, so it cannot leak future information. Rows + with fewer than two valid values have no meaningful cross-sectional + rank (a lone asset would receive the maximum 0.5 for free); those rows + keep their original entries -- NaN stays NaN and any existing value is + left as is. With two or more valid values, ties share the average + rank, matching pandas' default. + """ + ranked = fold_signal.rank(axis=1, pct=True) - 0.5 + enough = fold_signal.notna().sum(axis=1) >= 2 + return ranked.where(enough, fold_signal) + + @staticmethod + def _select_fold_factors( + selector: FactorSelector, + fold_info: dict, + factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], + forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> tuple[list[str], dict[str, pd.DataFrame]]: + """Run one per-fold selection and validate the returned names. + + The selector receives a shallow copy of ``fold_info`` whose + ``train_positions`` array is copied, so a selector cannot mutate the + metadata the signal computation later relies on. Unknown names and + string returns are contract violations and fail loud here rather than + silently producing a signal from the wrong panels. + """ + selector_fold_info = dict(fold_info) + selector_fold_info["train_positions"] = np.array( + fold_info["train_positions"], copy=True, + ) + chosen = selector(selector_fold_info, factors, forward_returns) + if isinstance(chosen, (str, bytes)): + raise ValueError( + "factor_selector must return an iterable of factor names, " + f"got the string {chosen!r}" + ) + selected = list(chosen) + if not all(name in factors for name in selected): + unknown = [name for name in selected if name not in factors] + raise ValueError( + f"factor_selector returned unknown factor(s) {unknown!r}; " + f"available factors: {sorted(factors)}" + ) + # Preserve the selector's order but drop duplicates for clarity. + selected = list(dict.fromkeys(selected)) + return selected, {name: factors[name] for name in selected} + def _compute_signal_in_sample( self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], @@ -277,11 +621,14 @@ def _compute_signal_in_sample( train_slice: slice, test_slice: slice, alpha_kwargs: dict, + train_positions: np.ndarray | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Recompute signal using only train-period data for IC weights. Factor values are taken from the test period (those are observable), - but IC weights are estimated from train-period data only. + but IC weights are estimated from train-period data only. When + ``train_positions`` is given, only those positions (the nominal train + window minus embargo days) feed the IC estimation. """ from quant_platform.alpha.combination import ( combine_equal_weight, @@ -299,8 +646,11 @@ def _compute_signal_in_sample( for name, df in factors.items(): fold_factors[name] = df.iloc[full_slice] - # Slice forward_returns to train period only - train_returns = forward_returns.iloc[train_slice] + # Slice forward_returns to train period only (minus embargo days) + if train_positions is None: + train_returns = forward_returns.iloc[train_slice] + else: + train_returns = forward_returns.iloc[train_positions] if method == "equal_weight": return combine_equal_weight(fold_factors) diff --git a/compliance/__init__.py b/compliance/__init__.py index 456bbf0..b395553 100644 --- a/compliance/__init__.py +++ b/compliance/__init__.py @@ -1 +1,5 @@ -"""Compliance module — regulatory reporting and trade log export.""" +"""Compliance module — regulatory reporting and trade log export. + +STATUS: TESTS ONLY (2026-10) — not imported by any runtime path. See +docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md / #77. +""" diff --git a/compliance/exporter.py b/compliance/exporter.py index 36a68b8..0023961 100644 --- a/compliance/exporter.py +++ b/compliance/exporter.py @@ -6,6 +6,21 @@ Fields follow CSRC naming conventions with English aliases for cross-border reporting. +Tenant isolation +---------------- +Trade and order logs are always scoped to exactly one tenant: an explicit +``tenant_id`` argument, or — when it is omitted — the current +:class:`quant_platform.core.context.TenantContext` (``"default"`` when no +context is set). A cross-tenant file can only be produced with the explicit +``include_all_tenants=True`` admin flag; the resolved scope is stamped on the +:class:`ExportResult` and on the audit record. + +``pnl_history`` has no ``tenant_id`` column (schema limitation), so the risk +log is inherently a whole-book export. It requires the explicit +``include_all_tenants=True`` acknowledgement, a specific tenant is refused, +and the result/filename/audit are labeled ``all`` — the exporter never +silently merges books or presents a whole-book file under a per-fund label. + Usage: from quant_platform.compliance.exporter import ComplianceExporter @@ -19,15 +34,45 @@ from __future__ import annotations import csv +import os +import re +import uuid from dataclasses import dataclass -from datetime import datetime +from datetime import datetime, timedelta from pathlib import Path from typing import Any +from quant_platform.core.audit import AuditAction, AuditLog +from quant_platform.core.context import TenantContext +from quant_platform.core.store import EXCHANGE_TZ from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) +#: Formats the exporter can actually produce. Anything else is a caller bug: +#: the old code silently wrote CSV for every unknown string and echoed the +#: requested name back in ExportResult. +EXPORT_FORMATS = frozenset({"csv", "xlsx"}) + +#: Characters that make spreadsheet software treat a cell as a formula +#: (CWE-1236). Tab and carriage return also start a dangerous cell. +_DANGEROUS_PREFIXES = frozenset("=+-@\t\r") + +#: Control characters openpyxl refuses to write anywhere in a cell +#: (IllegalCharacterError). They are removed, not escaped, since they carry +#: no meaning in a compliance record. +_ILLEGAL_XML_CHARS = re.compile(r"[\x00-\x08\x0b\x0c\x0e-\x1f]") + +_UNSAFE_FILENAME_CHARS = re.compile(r"[^A-Za-z0-9._-]+") + +#: Strict date shape: the window is compared as strings, so zero padding is +#: part of the contract (strptime alone accepts "2024-6-1"). +_DATE_SHAPE = re.compile(r"\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}") + +#: Dates outside this range overflow when the window is widened by a day. +_MIN_EXPORT_DATE = datetime(1900, 1, 1) +_MAX_EXPORT_DATE = datetime(9998, 12, 31) + # ── Field mappings: Chinese regulatory name ↔ English alias ── TRADE_FIELDS = [ @@ -61,6 +106,34 @@ ] +def _sanitize_cell(value: Any) -> Any: + """Neutralize spreadsheet formula injection (CWE-1236). + + A leading ``=``, ``+``, ``-``, ``@``, tab or carriage return can turn an + attacker-controlled cell into a formula that Excel/LibreOffice evaluates + on open. Prefixing the value with an apostrophe keeps it text; numbers + are left untouched so they stay numeric. XML-illegal control characters + are removed first (openpyxl rejects them anywhere in a cell), and a + dangerous character exposed by that removal is still neutralized. The + same cell transformation is applied to CSV and XLSX output, so both + formats carry identical payloads. + """ + if not isinstance(value, str) or not value: + return value + text = _ILLEGAL_XML_CHARS.sub("", value) + if not text: + return "" + if text[0] in _DANGEROUS_PREFIXES or ord(text[0]) < 0x20: + return "'" + text + return text + + +def _safe_filename_token(value: str) -> str: + """Reduce a caller-supplied token to characters safe in a filename.""" + token = _UNSAFE_FILENAME_CHARS.sub("_", str(value)).strip("._-") + return token[:64] or "all" + + @dataclass class ExportResult: """Result of an export operation.""" @@ -70,6 +143,7 @@ class ExportResult: start_date: str end_date: str tenant_id: str = "" + n_skipped: int = 0 class ComplianceExporter: @@ -81,12 +155,22 @@ class ComplianceExporter: Args: store: Store instance for data access. output_dir: Directory for exported files (default: ./compliance_output). + audit_log: AuditLog to record export success/failure. When omitted a + log backed by the same store is created. """ - def __init__(self, store: Any, output_dir: str = "compliance_output"): + def __init__( + self, + store: Any, + output_dir: str = "compliance_output", + audit_log: AuditLog | None = None, + ): self._store = store self._output_dir = Path(output_dir) self._output_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + self._audit = audit_log if audit_log is not None else AuditLog(store) + + # ── Public exports ────────────────────────────────────────────────── def export_trade_log( self, @@ -94,40 +178,67 @@ def export_trade_log( end: str, tenant_id: str | None = None, format: str = "xlsx", + include_all_tenants: bool = False, ) -> ExportResult: """Export trade log for a date range. Args: - start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD). - end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD). - tenant_id: Optional tenant filter. + start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + tenant_id: Tenant filter. Defaults to the current TenantContext. format: "xlsx" or "csv". + include_all_tenants: Explicit admin flag for a cross-tenant file. Returns: ExportResult with file path and record count. """ - trades = self._store.get_trades( - tenant_id=tenant_id or "", limit=100_000 + tenant = "" + scope_resolved = False + export_format = str(format) + # Validation and scope resolution run inside the try so a refused or + # malformed export attempt still leaves an audit record. + try: + start, end = self._validate_window(start, end) + export_format = self._normalize_format(format) + tenant = self._resolve_tenant(tenant_id, include_all_tenants) + scope_resolved = True + + # Dedicated export query: no API row clamp (get_trades stops at + # 1000, which silently dropped older records of a larger date + # range) and internal keyset pagination for the whole range. + trades = self._store.get_trades_for_export( + tenant_id=tenant, start_date=start, end_date=end, + ) + filtered, skipped = self._filter_by_date( + trades, "executed_at", start, end, + ) + path, actual_format = self._write( + filtered, TRADE_FIELDS, "trade_log", start, end, tenant, + export_format, + ) + except Exception as exc: + self._record_audit( + "trade_log", str(start), str(end), + tenant if scope_resolved else ( + str(tenant_id) if tenant_id else None + ), + export_format, 0, 0, "", "failure", exc, + ) + raise + + self._record_audit( + "trade_log", start, end, tenant, actual_format, len(filtered), + skipped, str(path), "success", ) - filtered = self._filter_by_date(trades, "executed_at", start, end) - - filename = f"trade_log_{start}_{end}" - if tenant_id: - filename += f"_{tenant_id}" - - if format == "xlsx": - path = self._write_xlsx(filtered, TRADE_FIELDS, filename) - else: - path = self._write_csv(filtered, TRADE_FIELDS, filename) - logger.info("Exported %d trades to %s", len(filtered), path) return ExportResult( file_path=str(path), - format=format, + format=actual_format, n_records=len(filtered), start_date=start, end_date=end, - tenant_id=tenant_id or "", + tenant_id=tenant, + n_skipped=skipped, ) def export_order_log( @@ -136,40 +247,63 @@ def export_order_log( end: str, tenant_id: str | None = None, format: str = "csv", + include_all_tenants: bool = False, ) -> ExportResult: """Export order log for a date range. Args: - start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD). - end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD). - tenant_id: Optional tenant filter. + start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + tenant_id: Tenant filter. Defaults to the current TenantContext. format: "xlsx" or "csv". + include_all_tenants: Explicit admin flag for a cross-tenant file. Returns: ExportResult with file path and record count. """ - orders = self._store.get_orders( - tenant_id=tenant_id or "", limit=100_000 + tenant = "" + scope_resolved = False + export_format = str(format) + try: + start, end = self._validate_window(start, end) + export_format = self._normalize_format(format) + tenant = self._resolve_tenant(tenant_id, include_all_tenants) + scope_resolved = True + + # Dedicated export query: no API row clamp, keyset pagination. + orders = self._store.get_orders_for_export( + tenant_id=tenant, start_date=start, end_date=end, + ) + filtered, skipped = self._filter_by_date( + orders, "created_at", start, end, + ) + path, actual_format = self._write( + filtered, ORDER_FIELDS, "order_log", start, end, tenant, + export_format, + ) + except Exception as exc: + self._record_audit( + "order_log", str(start), str(end), + tenant if scope_resolved else ( + str(tenant_id) if tenant_id else None + ), + export_format, 0, 0, "", "failure", exc, + ) + raise + + self._record_audit( + "order_log", start, end, tenant, actual_format, len(filtered), + skipped, str(path), "success", ) - filtered = self._filter_by_date(orders, "created_at", start, end) - - filename = f"order_log_{start}_{end}" - if tenant_id: - filename += f"_{tenant_id}" - - if format == "xlsx": - path = self._write_xlsx(filtered, ORDER_FIELDS, filename) - else: - path = self._write_csv(filtered, ORDER_FIELDS, filename) - logger.info("Exported %d orders to %s", len(filtered), path) return ExportResult( file_path=str(path), - format=format, + format=actual_format, n_records=len(filtered), start_date=start, end_date=end, - tenant_id=tenant_id or "", + tenant_id=tenant, + n_skipped=skipped, ) def export_risk_log( @@ -178,114 +312,339 @@ def export_risk_log( end: str, tenant_id: str | None = None, format: str = "csv", + include_all_tenants: bool = False, ) -> ExportResult: """Export P&L history as risk log. + ``pnl_history`` has no ``tenant_id`` column, so this export is + inherently whole-book. It requires the explicit + ``include_all_tenants=True`` acknowledgement; a specific + ``tenant_id`` is refused. The result is stamped with tenant ``""`` + and the filename/audit record say ``all`` — a whole-book file is + never presented as one fund's data. + Args: - start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD). - end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD). - tenant_id: Optional tenant filter (unused for P&L). + start: Start date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + end: End date (YYYY-MM-DD), inclusive. + tenant_id: Must be omitted — P&L rows carry no tenant scope. format: "xlsx" or "csv". + include_all_tenants: Required explicit acknowledgement of a + whole-book (cross-tenant) export. Returns: ExportResult with file path and record count. """ - pnl = self._store.get_pnl_history(days=365 * 5) - filtered = self._filter_by_date(pnl, "timestamp", start, end) - - risk_fields = [ - ("timestamp", "快照时间", "Timestamp"), - ("total_equity", "总权益", "Total Equity"), - ("cash", "现金", "Cash"), - ("market_value", "持仓市值", "Market Value"), - ("daily_pnl", "当日盈亏", "Daily P&L"), - ("daily_pnl_pct", "当日收益率", "Daily Return %"), - ("cumulative_pnl", "累计盈亏", "Cumulative P&L"), - ("n_positions", "持仓数量", "Positions"), - ("max_drawdown", "最大回撤", "Max Drawdown"), - ("sharpe_ratio", "夏普比率", "Sharpe Ratio"), - ] - - filename = f"risk_log_{start}_{end}" - if tenant_id: - filename += f"_{tenant_id}" - - if format == "xlsx": - path = self._write_xlsx(filtered, risk_fields, filename) - else: - path = self._write_csv(filtered, risk_fields, filename) - + tenant = "" + scope_resolved = False + export_format = str(format) + try: + start, end = self._validate_window(start, end) + export_format = self._normalize_format(format) + if tenant_id: + raise ValueError( + "pnl_history has no tenant_id column: a per-tenant risk " + "log cannot be produced." + ) + if not include_all_tenants: + raise ValueError( + "pnl_history has no tenant_id column, so the risk log is a " + "whole-book export. Pass include_all_tenants=True to " + "acknowledge that the file contains every book in this " + "store." + ) + tenant = "" + scope_resolved = True + + risk_fields = [ + ("timestamp", "快照时间", "Timestamp"), + ("total_equity", "总权益", "Total Equity"), + ("cash", "现金", "Cash"), + ("market_value", "持仓市值", "Market Value"), + ("daily_pnl", "当日盈亏", "Daily P&L"), + ("daily_pnl_pct", "当日收益率", "Daily Return %"), + ("cumulative_pnl", "累计盈亏", "Cumulative P&L"), + ("n_positions", "持仓数量", "Positions"), + ("max_drawdown", "最大回撤", "Max Drawdown"), + ("sharpe_ratio", "夏普比率", "Sharpe Ratio"), + ] + + # Widened SQL window (the store's own query appends T23:59:59 to + # the end date); the Python half-open filter below is + # authoritative, so a record at end-of-day + fractional second is + # not lost and a timezone-offset record cannot slip the window. + sql_start = ( + datetime.strptime(start, "%Y-%m-%d") - timedelta(days=1) + ).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + sql_end = ( + datetime.strptime(end, "%Y-%m-%d") + timedelta(days=1) + ).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + pnl = self._store.get_pnl_history( + start_date=sql_start, end_date=sql_end, + ) + filtered, skipped = self._filter_by_date( + pnl, "timestamp", start, end, + ) + path, actual_format = self._write( + filtered, risk_fields, "risk_log", start, end, tenant, + export_format, + ) + except Exception as exc: + self._record_audit( + "risk_log", str(start), str(end), + tenant if scope_resolved else ( + str(tenant_id) if tenant_id else None + ), + export_format, 0, 0, "", "failure", exc, + ) + raise + + self._record_audit( + "risk_log", start, end, tenant, actual_format, len(filtered), + skipped, str(path), "success", + ) logger.info("Exported %d risk records to %s", len(filtered), path) return ExportResult( file_path=str(path), - format=format, + format=actual_format, n_records=len(filtered), start_date=start, end_date=end, - tenant_id=tenant_id or "", + tenant_id=tenant, + n_skipped=skipped, ) + # ── Scope / window helpers ────────────────────────────────────────── + + @staticmethod + def _resolve_tenant( + tenant_id: str | None, include_all_tenants: bool, + ) -> str: + """Resolve the tenant scope for a trade/order export. + + Empty string means "explicit cross-tenant export" and is only + returned when the caller passed the admin flag. Asking for one + tenant and all tenants at once is a contradictory request and is + rejected rather than silently letting the flag win. + """ + if include_all_tenants: + if tenant_id: + raise ValueError( + "tenant_id and include_all_tenants are mutually exclusive" + ) + return "" + if tenant_id: + return str(tenant_id) + return TenantContext.get_current().tenant_id or "default" + + @staticmethod + def _validate_window(start: str, end: str) -> tuple[str, str]: + """Validate the date window before any store query runs.""" + for label, value in (("start", start), ("end", end)): + if ( + not isinstance(value, str) + or _DATE_SHAPE.fullmatch(value) is None + ): + raise ValueError( + f"{label} must be a YYYY-MM-DD date, got {value!r}" + ) + try: + parsed = datetime.strptime(value, "%Y-%m-%d") + except ValueError: + raise ValueError( + f"{label} must be a YYYY-MM-DD date, got {value!r}" + ) from None + if not _MIN_EXPORT_DATE <= parsed <= _MAX_EXPORT_DATE: + raise ValueError( + f"{label} is outside the supported export range " + f"1900-01-01..9998-12-31, got {value!r}" + ) + if start > end: + raise ValueError(f"start {start!r} is after end {end!r}") + return start, end + + @staticmethod + def _normalize_format(format: str) -> str: + value = str(format).lower() if format is not None else "" + if value not in EXPORT_FORMATS: + raise ValueError( + f"Unsupported export format {format!r}; " + f"expected one of {sorted(EXPORT_FORMATS)}" + ) + return value + def _filter_by_date( - self, records: list[dict], date_field: str, start: str, end: str - ) -> list[dict]: - """Filter records by date range on a given field.""" - start_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(start) - end_dt = datetime.fromisoformat(end + "T23:59:59") - - filtered = [] - for r in records: - raw = r.get(date_field, "") + self, records: list[dict], date_field: str, start: str, end: str, + ) -> tuple[list[dict], int]: + """Filter records by a half-open [start, end + 1 day) window. + + Returns the matching records and the number of records skipped for a + missing or unparseable date field (counted and logged, never silently + dropped). Naive timestamps are already on the exchange basis; + timezone-aware ones are converted to Asia/Shanghai before comparison, + independent of the host timezone. + """ + start_dt = datetime.strptime(start, "%Y-%m-%d") + end_dt = datetime.strptime(end, "%Y-%m-%d") + timedelta(days=1) + + filtered: list[dict] = [] + skipped = 0 + for record in records: + raw = record.get(date_field, "") if not raw: + skipped += 1 continue try: dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(raw)) - if start_dt <= dt <= end_dt: - filtered.append(r) except (ValueError, TypeError): + skipped += 1 continue - return filtered + if dt.tzinfo is not None: + dt = dt.astimezone(EXCHANGE_TZ).replace(tzinfo=None) + if start_dt <= dt < end_dt: + filtered.append(record) + + if skipped: + logger.warning( + "Skipped %d record(s) with a missing or unparseable %s", + skipped, date_field, + ) + return filtered, skipped + + # ── Writers ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── + + def _write( + self, + records: list[dict], + fields: list[tuple], + kind: str, + start: str, + end: str, + tenant: str, + export_format: str, + ) -> tuple[Path, str]: + """Write records and return the actual file path and format. + + The filename carries an exchange-time stamp and a random token, so a + re-export never overwrites an earlier file (provenance) and two + concurrent exports cannot race on the same path. Files are written to + a temporary name and atomically renamed into place. + """ + stamp = datetime.now(EXCHANGE_TZ).strftime("%Y%m%dT%H%M%S%f") + token = uuid.uuid4().hex[:8] + tenant_token = _safe_filename_token(tenant) if tenant else "all" + filename = f"{kind}_{start}_{end}_{tenant_token}_{stamp}_{token}" + + if export_format == "xlsx": + return self._write_xlsx(records, fields, filename) + return self._write_csv(records, fields, filename), "csv" def _write_xlsx( - self, records: list[dict], fields: list[tuple], filename: str - ) -> Path: - """Write records to Excel file.""" + self, records: list[dict], fields: list[tuple], filename: str, + ) -> tuple[Path, str]: + """Write records to Excel file. Returns (path, actual_format).""" try: from openpyxl import Workbook except ImportError: logger.warning("openpyxl not installed, falling back to CSV") - return self._write_csv(records, fields, filename) + return self._write_csv(records, fields, filename), "csv" wb = Workbook() ws = wb.active ws.title = "交易记录" # Header row: Chinese name + English alias - headers = [f"{cn}({en})" for _, cn, en in fields] - ws.append(headers) + ws.append([f"{cn}({en})" for _, cn, en in fields]) - # Data rows + # Data rows. Cell values are neutralized so a string starting with + # "=" stays text (data_type 's') instead of becoming a formula ('f'). for record in records: - row = [record.get(field, "") for field, _, _ in fields] - ws.append(row) + ws.append([ + _sanitize_cell(record.get(field, "")) for field, _, _ in fields + ]) path = self._output_dir / f"{filename}.xlsx" - wb.save(str(path)) - return path + tmp = path.with_name(f"{path.name}.tmp-{uuid.uuid4().hex[:8]}") + try: + wb.save(str(tmp)) + os.replace(tmp, path) + finally: + tmp.unlink(missing_ok=True) + return path, "xlsx" def _write_csv( - self, records: list[dict], fields: list[tuple], filename: str + self, records: list[dict], fields: list[tuple], filename: str, ) -> Path: """Write records to CSV file with UTF-8 BOM for Excel compatibility.""" path = self._output_dir / f"{filename}.csv" + tmp = path.with_name(f"{path.name}.tmp-{uuid.uuid4().hex[:8]}") + try: + with open(tmp, "w", newline="", encoding="utf-8-sig") as f: + writer = csv.writer(f) + # Header: Chinese name with English alias + writer.writerow([f"{cn}({en})" for _, cn, en in fields]) + + for record in records: + writer.writerow([ + _sanitize_cell(record.get(field, "")) + for field, _, _ in fields + ]) + os.replace(tmp, path) + finally: + tmp.unlink(missing_ok=True) + return path - with open(path, "w", newline="", encoding="utf-8-sig") as f: - writer = csv.writer(f) - # Header: Chinese name with English alias - headers = [f"{cn}({en})" for _, cn, en in fields] - writer.writerow(headers) - - for record in records: - row = [record.get(field, "") for field, _, _ in fields] - writer.writerow(row) + # ── Audit ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── - return path + def _record_audit( + self, + kind: str, + start: str, + end: str, + tenant: str | None, + export_format: str, + n_records: int, + n_skipped: int, + file_path: str, + result: str, + error: Exception | None = None, + ) -> None: + """Record an export success/failure in the compliance audit trail. + + ``tenant`` is the resolved scope: ``""`` means an explicit whole-book + export (recorded as ``"all"``), while ``None`` means the attempt was + refused before the scope could be resolved (recorded as + ``"unknown"``). + + An audit-write failure is logged but never replaces the export's own + outcome (and never masks an export exception). + """ + if tenant is None: + scope = "unknown" + else: + scope = tenant or "all" + details = { + "export": kind, + "tenant_id": scope, + "start": start, + "end": end, + "format": export_format, + "n_records": n_records, + "n_skipped": n_skipped, + "file_path": file_path, + } + if error is not None: + details["error"] = f"{type(error).__name__}: {error}" + try: + self._audit.log( + AuditAction.EXPORT, + component="compliance.exporter", + details=details, + reason=f"{kind} export {start}..{end}", + result=result, + # Scope the audit row to the export's resolved tenant (when + # one exists) so tenant-scoped audit queries find exports of + # that tenant's data even from a default context. + tenant_id=tenant or "", + ) + except Exception: + logger.exception("Failed to write export audit record") diff --git a/config/default.yaml b/config/default.yaml index 9a47319..ca12a67 100644 --- a/config/default.yaml +++ b/config/default.yaml @@ -18,6 +18,14 @@ data: start_date: "2021-01-01" end_date: "2025-12-31" frequency: "daily" # daily, weekly, monthly + # A configured REAL provider that is unavailable fails the run by default. + # Set true (or pass --allow-synthetic-fallback) only for development: the + # fallback is recorded in metrics.json/manifest as synthetic. + allow_synthetic_fallback: false + # Freshness gate (exchange sessions): a completion marker more than this + # many sessions behind the requested end is stale. Research runs warn; + # live/decisive runs fail closed. 3 sessions tolerates a weekend + T+1 lag. + max_staleness_days: 3 # --- Factors --- factors: @@ -26,7 +34,8 @@ factors: momentum_1m: {enabled: true, params: {period: 21}} momentum_3m: {enabled: true, params: {period: 63}} momentum_6m: {enabled: true, params: {period: 126}} - momentum_12m: {enabled: true, params: {period: 252}, exclude_recent: 21} + # Momentum12M skips the most recent 21 days by design (factor default). + momentum_12m: {enabled: true, params: {period: 252}} volatility_20d: {enabled: true, params: {period: 20}} volatility_60d: {enabled: true, params: {period: 60}} turnover_20d: {enabled: true, params: {period: 20}} @@ -56,8 +65,9 @@ factors: # --- Alpha Model --- alpha: - method: "icir_weighted" # equal_weight, ic_weighted, icir_weighted - # Ablation #001: Top 8 vs All 26 差距 1.24 Sharpe -> 等权融合所有因子会显著稀释 Alpha + method: "equal_weight" # equal_weight (default, no full-sample weight fitting), ic_weighted, icir_weighted + # Ablation #001 found ICIR weighting over all 26 factors diluted alpha; the + # research baseline therefore uses equal weights and treats ICIR as opt-in. lookback: 252 # Days for IC/ICIR estimation min_icir: 0.0 # Minimum ICIR to include factor tradability_gate: false # Per-stock profile-based signal filtering @@ -72,6 +82,14 @@ portfolio: max_sector_exposure: 0.30 # 30% max per sector max_turnover: 0.30 # 30% max turnover per rebalance lot_size: 100 # A-share lot size + # R8 cost-aware MVO. All default 0 = disabled, so the default backtest + # (weights, objective, constraints) is unchanged. + transaction_cost_bps: 0.0 # one-way turnover cost in bp added to the MVO objective + turnover_penalty: 0.0 # quadratic penalty on (w - prev_w), smooths turnover + max_participation: 0.0 # ADV participation cap, e.g. 0.10 = 10% of ADV; 0 = off. + # main.py run supplies both daily_volume (shares) and + # raw_prices (unadjusted close) since R9; without them + # the engine warns and disables the cap. covariance: method: "ledoit_wolf" # sample, ledoit_wolf, ewma lookback: 252 # Days for covariance estimation @@ -87,18 +105,21 @@ backtest: # --- Costs --- costs: commission: 0.0003 # 0.03% per trade - stamp_tax: 0.001 # 0.1% on sell only (A-share) - slippage: 0.001 # 0.1% slippage (baseline bps) + # Stamp tax (sell side only). null = statutory schedule by trade date: + # 0.1% before 2023-08-28, 0.05% from that date. An explicit value is a flat + # override of the schedule (e.g. 0.001 pins 0.1% for every date). + stamp_tax: null + slippage: 0.001 # 0.1% fixed slippage; fallback rate for impact # fixed, proportional, or impact. # - # This said "impact" while nothing supplied the per-asset daily_volume and - # volatility the impact model requires -- CostModel fell through to fixed - # slippage on every rebalance, so the config described a model that was not - # running. Set to what actually runs. Switching to "impact" needs - # BacktestEngine.compute_costs() callers to pass both series; CostModel now - # logs a warning once if a non-fixed model cannot engage. - slippage_model: "fixed" - impact_model: "composite" # composite, almgren_chriss, square_root + # "impact" is the default now that the pipeline actually supplies the + # inputs it needs: `_load_data` attaches share volume, `_run_backtest` + # hands the engine volume + the unadjusted close, and the engine converts + # shares to CNY before calling the cost model. Without those inputs the + # cost model warns once and falls back to fixed slippage, so the config + # can never silently describe a model that is not running. + slippage_model: "impact" + impact_model: "composite" # scalar single-order path; the vectorised backtest path uses the documented square-root rule # --- Risk --- risk: @@ -180,3 +201,17 @@ execution: server: "localhost:58610" # miniQMT TCP address mode: "sim" # sim or live data_server: "" # market data server (defaults to server) + +# --- Research --- +# Final-evaluation holdout window. While configured, these dates are reserved +# for the final one-shot evaluation and may not participate in any choice: +# * `/api/sweep` and `python main.py sweep` refuse to run when the data +# window (data.start_date/data.end_date) overlaps the holdout; +# * research validation (strategy/research_validation.py) drops holdout rows +# before factor screening and walk-forward. +# Both dates are inclusive and must satisfy start_date < end_date. +# Empty (the default) means the holdout is disabled and behaviour is unchanged. +research: + holdout: + start_date: "" # ISO date, e.g. "2025-01-01" + end_date: "" # ISO date, e.g. "2025-12-31" diff --git a/config/schema.py b/config/schema.py index c84bb94..353ad90 100644 --- a/config/schema.py +++ b/config/schema.py @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ """Configuration schema validation using dataclasses.""" from dataclasses import dataclass, field +from typing import Any @dataclass @@ -24,6 +25,16 @@ class DataConfig: start_date: str = "2021-01-01" end_date: str = "2025-12-31" frequency: str = "daily" + # A configured *real* provider that is unavailable must fail closed by + # default: silently substituting synthetic research data made a broken + # feed indistinguishable from production output. Set this (or pass + # `--allow-synthetic-fallback`) only for development. + allow_synthetic_fallback: bool = False + # Freshness gate (D32): a panel whose completion marker is more than this + # many *exchange sessions* behind the requested end is stale. Research + # runs warn; live/decisive runs fail closed. 3 sessions tolerates a + # weekend plus a T+1 publication lag. + max_staleness_days: int = 3 @dataclass @@ -39,7 +50,7 @@ class FactorProcessingConfig: @dataclass class AlphaConfig: - method: str = "icir_weighted" + method: str = "equal_weight" lookback: int = 252 min_icir: float = 0.0 tradability_gate: bool = False @@ -53,6 +64,11 @@ class PortfolioConstraintsConfig: max_sector_exposure: float = 0.30 max_turnover: float = 0.30 lot_size: int = 100 + # R8 cost-aware optimizer knobs. All default to 0 = disabled, so the + # default backtest path is unchanged. + transaction_cost_bps: float = 0.0 # one-way turnover cost in bp + turnover_penalty: float = 0.0 # quadratic (w - prev_w) penalty + max_participation: float = 0.0 # ADV participation cap, (0, 1] or 0 @dataclass @@ -80,7 +96,10 @@ class BacktestConfig: @dataclass class CostsConfig: commission: float = 0.0003 - stamp_tax: float = 0.001 + # None = follow the statutory sell-side schedule by trade date (0.1% + # before 2023-08-28, 0.05% from that date); an explicit value is a flat + # override. Flat 0.1% on a post-cut backtest overstated sell costs. + stamp_tax: float | None = None slippage: float = 0.001 slippage_model: str = "impact" # fixed, proportional, impact impact_model: str = "composite" # composite, almgren_chriss, square_root @@ -108,6 +127,32 @@ class OutputConfig: plot_format: str = "png" +@dataclass +class HoldoutConfig: + """Final-evaluation holdout window (ISO dates; empty = disabled). + + The window is inclusive on both ends. Both dates must be set together and + ``start_date < end_date``. Validation lives in ``validate_config()`` + (``utils/config.py``), not here: the config system's documented contract + is that ``load_config(validate=False)`` skips validation for synthetic / + partial configs (see ``utils/config.py``'s module docstring), and a + dataclass constructor cannot honour that flag. The constructor only + normalises ``None``/whitespace so empty means disabled. + """ + start_date: str = "" + end_date: str = "" + + def __post_init__(self) -> None: + self.start_date = "" if self.start_date is None else str(self.start_date).strip() + self.end_date = "" if self.end_date is None else str(self.end_date).strip() + + +@dataclass +class ResearchConfig: + """Research governance settings (the holdout window).""" + holdout: HoldoutConfig = field(default_factory=HoldoutConfig) + + @dataclass class InstrumentConfig: """Single instrument definition for cross-asset support.""" @@ -176,6 +221,11 @@ class FactorsConfig: enabled_fundamentals: tuple[str, ...] = ( "log_market_cap", "pb_ratio", "pe_ratio", "roe", "asset_growth", ) + # Per-factor constructor parameters (`momentum_1m: {params: {period: 10}}`). + # They used to be dropped during parsing, so editing them changed nothing. + params: dict[str, dict] = field(default_factory=dict) + # `factors.processing`: winsorize / standardize / neutralize settings. + processing: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict) @dataclass @@ -189,6 +239,7 @@ class Config: costs: CostsConfig = field(default_factory=CostsConfig) risk: RiskConfig = field(default_factory=RiskConfig) output: OutputConfig = field(default_factory=OutputConfig) + research: ResearchConfig = field(default_factory=ResearchConfig) instruments: list[InstrumentConfig] = field(default_factory=list) screener: ScreenerConfig = field(default_factory=ScreenerConfig) execution: ExecutionConfig = field(default_factory=ExecutionConfig) diff --git a/core/audit.py b/core/audit.py index e9020fb..4161e76 100644 --- a/core/audit.py +++ b/core/audit.py @@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ import uuid from datetime import datetime from enum import StrEnum +from typing import Any from quant_platform.core.events import EventBus, get_event_bus from quant_platform.core.store import Store @@ -40,6 +41,7 @@ class AuditAction(StrEnum): ENGINE_STOP = "engine_stop" CONFIG_CHANGE = "config_change" MANUAL_ORDER = "manual_order" + EXPORT = "export" class AuditLog: @@ -51,9 +53,28 @@ class AuditLog: 3. Python logger (stdout/file) """ - def __init__(self, store: Store, bus: EventBus | None = None): + def __init__( + self, + store: Store, + bus: EventBus | None = None, + tenant_id: str = "", + ): self._store = store self._bus = bus or get_event_bus() + # An explicit tenant wins over the context: engines create their + # AuditLog on one thread and log from a worker, where the ContextVar + # set in the constructor is not visible. + self._tenant_id = tenant_id + + def _tenant(self) -> str: + if self._tenant_id: + return self._tenant_id + try: + from quant_platform.core.context import TenantContext + + return TenantContext.get_current().tenant_id + except Exception: + return "default" def log( self, @@ -62,13 +83,23 @@ def log( details: dict | None = None, reason: str = "", result: str = "success", + tenant_id: str = "", ): - """Log an audit event.""" + """Log an audit event. + + ``tenant_id`` overrides the acting tenant for events whose subject is + another tenant's data (e.g. a compliance export resolved to + ``fund_a`` from a default context), so tenant-scoped audit queries + find them. + """ event_id = uuid.uuid4().hex[:12] datetime.now().isoformat() - record = { + tenant = tenant_id or self._tenant() + actor = self._tenant() + record: dict[str, Any] = { "event_id": event_id, + "tenant_id": tenant, "topic": f"audit.{action.value}", "data": { "action": action.value, @@ -76,6 +107,8 @@ def log( "details": details or {}, "reason": reason, "result": result, + "tenant_id": tenant, + "actor_tenant": actor, }, "source": component, "timestamp": time.time(), @@ -96,6 +129,7 @@ def log_signal(self, code: str, direction: str, strength: float, """Log a signal generation.""" self._store.save_signal({ "signal_id": uuid.uuid4().hex[:12], + "tenant_id": self._tenant(), "code": code, "direction": direction, "strength": strength, @@ -112,10 +146,15 @@ def log_signal(self, code: str, direction: str, strength: float, def log_order(self, order: dict, action: AuditAction, reason: str = ""): """Log an order event.""" - self._store.save_order(order) + tenant_id = self._tenant() + order = {**order, "tenant_id": order.get("tenant_id") or tenant_id} if action == AuditAction.ORDER_FILLED: - self._store.save_trade({ - "trade_id": order.get("order_id", ""), + # Order + fill in one transaction: a second fill on the same + # order used to fail on the trades UNIQUE key *after* the order + # row had been written, losing the fill and its audit record. + # The store generates the trade_id (uuid4). + self._store.save_order_with_trade(order, { + "tenant_id": tenant_id, "order_id": order["order_id"], "code": order["code"], "side": order["side"], @@ -124,6 +163,8 @@ def log_order(self, order: dict, action: AuditAction, reason: str = ""): "commission": order.get("commission", 0), "tax": order.get("tax", 0), }) + else: + self._store.save_order(order) self.log( action, component="broker", @@ -139,10 +180,14 @@ def log_order(self, order: dict, action: AuditAction, reason: str = ""): def log_position(self, position: dict, action: AuditAction): """Log a position change.""" + tenant_id = self._tenant() if action == AuditAction.POSITION_CLOSED: - self._store.delete_position(position["code"]) + # Without the tenant this deleted every tenant's row for the code. + self._store.delete_position(position["code"], tenant_id=tenant_id) else: - self._store.save_position(position) + self._store.save_position({ + **position, "tenant_id": position.get("tenant_id") or tenant_id, + }) self.log( action, component="portfolio", @@ -168,7 +213,10 @@ def log_risk_breach(self, breach_type: str, details: dict, severity: str = "warn result="warning", ) - def get_recent(self, action: str = "", limit: int = 50) -> list[dict]: - """Get recent audit events.""" + def get_recent(self, action: str = "", limit: int = 50, + tenant_id: str = "") -> list[dict]: + """Get recent audit events, optionally for one tenant.""" topic = f"audit.{action}" if action else "" - return self._store.get_events(topic=topic, limit=limit) + return self._store.get_events( + topic=topic, limit=limit, tenant_id=tenant_id, + ) diff --git a/core/event_bus_v2.py b/core/event_bus_v2.py index fb408b0..1f81474 100644 --- a/core/event_bus_v2.py +++ b/core/event_bus_v2.py @@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ class HandlerStats: # Buckets for histogram (in microseconds) latency_buckets: list[int] = field(default_factory=lambda: [0] * 13) # Bucket boundaries: 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000, inf μs - BUCKET_BOUNDARIES_NS: list[int] = field( + BUCKET_BOUNDARIES_NS: list[float] = field( default_factory=lambda: [1000, 2000, 5000, 10_000, 20_000, 50_000, 100_000, 200_000, 500_000, 1_000_000, 2_000_000, 5_000_000, float('inf')] @@ -291,7 +291,7 @@ def __init__( wal_path: str | None = None, wal_sync_interval: float = 1.0, # seconds ): - self._buffer: list[Event] = [None] * buffer_size + self._buffer: list[Event | None] = [None] * buffer_size self._buffer_size = buffer_size self._write_pos = 0 self._total_events = 0 @@ -346,19 +346,20 @@ def get_recent(self, limit: int = 100) -> list[Event]: count = min(limit, self._write_pos, self._buffer_size) if count == 0: return [] - result = [] + result: list[Event] = [] for i in range(count): idx = (self._write_pos - count + i) % self._buffer_size - if self._buffer[idx] is not None: - result.append(self._buffer[idx]) + event = self._buffer[idx] + if event is not None: + result.append(event) return result def get_by_topic(self, topic: str, limit: int = 100) -> list[Event]: - """Get recent events matching a topic (prefix match).""" + """Get recent events matching a topic pattern.""" + from quant_platform.core.topic_matching import topic_matches + recent = self.get_recent(limit * 3) # Get more to filter - matching = [e for e in recent if e.topic == topic or - (topic.endswith('.*') and e.topic.startswith(topic[:-2])) or - (topic.endswith('.**') and e.topic.startswith(topic[:-3]))] + matching = [e for e in recent if topic_matches(e.topic, topic)] return matching[-limit:] def replay_from_wal(self) -> list[Event]: @@ -471,8 +472,13 @@ def __init__( # Dead letter queue self._dlq = DeadLetterQueue() - # Consumer tasks + # Consumer tasks, keyed by subscription. `id(queue)` alone can be + # reused after a cancelled subscription's queue is collected, so a + # monotonic counter provides the identity; the map lets unsubscribe + # find the key from the queue. self._consumer_tasks: dict[str, asyncio.Task] = {} + self._queue_keys: dict[int, str] = {} + self._consumer_seq = 0 # Metrics self._metrics = { @@ -486,10 +492,16 @@ def __init__( # Event loop reference (set on first async operation) self._loop: asyncio.AbstractEventLoop | None = None + self._started = False # DLQ retry task self._dlq_task: asyncio.Task | None = None + @property + def is_started(self) -> bool: + """Whether the consumer loops and DLQ retry loop are running.""" + return self._started + # ── Subscription ── def subscribe( @@ -513,16 +525,24 @@ def subscribe( # Auto-detect: if handler is a coroutine function, treat as async if asyncio.iscoroutinefunction(handler): q_size = queue_size or self._default_queue_size - queue = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=q_size) - handler_name = name or getattr(handler, '__name__', str(id(handler))) + queue: asyncio.Queue[Event] = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=q_size) + handler_name = str( + name or getattr(handler, '__name__', str(id(handler))) + ) stats = HandlerStats(handler_name=handler_name, topic=topic) with self._lock: self._handlers[topic].append((handler, queue, stats, 'async')) logger.debug("Subscribed async handler '%s' to '%s' (queue=%d)", handler_name, topic, q_size) + self._ensure_consumer(topic, handler, queue, stats, 'async') else: # Sync handler — delegate to subscribe_sync - self.subscribe_sync(topic, handler, queue_size=queue_size, name=name) + self.subscribe_sync( + topic, + handler, # type: ignore[arg-type] + queue_size=queue_size, + name=name, + ) def subscribe_sync( self, @@ -534,8 +554,10 @@ def subscribe_sync( ): """Subscribe a sync handler (will be run in thread pool).""" q_size = queue_size or self._default_queue_size - queue = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=q_size) - handler_name = name or getattr(handler, '__name__', str(id(handler))) + queue: asyncio.Queue[Event] = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=q_size) + handler_name = str( + name or getattr(handler, '__name__', str(id(handler))) + ) stats = HandlerStats(handler_name=handler_name, topic=topic) with self._lock: @@ -543,15 +565,98 @@ def subscribe_sync( logger.debug("Subscribed sync handler '%s' to '%s' (queue=%d)", handler_name, topic, q_size) + self._ensure_consumer(topic, handler, queue, stats, 'sync') + + def _consumer_key(self, queue) -> str: + """Consumer tasks are keyed by subscription, not handler name. + + Two handlers named `on_tick` (or a handler re-subscribed after + unsubscribe) shared a key, so the second subscription never got a + consumer: its events sat in an undrained queue until publish blocked + on the full queue. + """ + key = self._queue_keys.get(id(queue)) + if key is None: + with self._lock: + key = self._queue_keys.get(id(queue)) + if key is None: + self._consumer_seq += 1 + key = f"consumer:{self._consumer_seq}" + self._queue_keys[id(queue)] = key + return key + + def _start_consumer_task(self, topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type): + """Create the consumer task for one handler. Loop thread only.""" + key = self._consumer_key(queue) + if key in self._consumer_tasks: + return + if handler_type == 'async': + self._consumer_tasks[key] = self._loop.create_task( + self._async_consumer_loop(handler, queue, stats) + ) + else: + self._consumer_tasks[key] = self._loop.create_task( + self._sync_consumer_loop(handler, queue, stats) + ) + + def _ensure_consumer(self, topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type): + """Attach a consumer loop to a handler subscribed after start(). + + Engines and other components are created on demand, long after the + application startup hook started the bus. Without this their handlers + would sit in the registry with no task draining the queue. + """ + if not self._started or self._loop is None or not self._loop.is_running(): + return + key = self._consumer_key(queue) + if key in self._consumer_tasks: + return + + try: + running = asyncio.get_running_loop() + except RuntimeError: + running = None + + if running is self._loop: + self._start_consumer_task(topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type) + else: + self._loop.call_soon_threadsafe( + self._start_consumer_task, topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type, + ) def unsubscribe(self, topic: str, handler: SyncHandler | AsyncHandler): - """Remove a handler subscription.""" + """Remove a handler subscription and stop its consumer task.""" + removed_queues = [] with self._lock: if topic in self._handlers: - self._handlers[topic] = [ - (h, q, s, t) for h, q, s, t in self._handlers[topic] - if h != handler - ] + kept = [] + for h, q, s, t in self._handlers[topic]: + if h == handler: + removed_queues.append(q) + else: + kept.append((h, q, s, t)) + self._handlers[topic] = kept + + loop = self._loop + if not removed_queues or loop is None: + return + + def _cancel_consumers(): + for queue in removed_queues: + key = self._queue_keys.pop(id(queue), None) + if key is None: + continue + task = self._consumer_tasks.pop(key, None) + if task is not None: + task.cancel() + + try: + if loop.is_running(): + loop.call_soon_threadsafe(_cancel_consumers) + else: + _cancel_consumers() + except RuntimeError: + _cancel_consumers() def add_interceptor(self, fn: Interceptor): """Add a pre-publish interceptor. Return None to suppress event.""" @@ -676,53 +781,41 @@ def _get_matching_handlers(self, topic: str) -> list[tuple]: @staticmethod def _topic_matches(topic: str, pattern: str) -> bool: - """Check if topic matches pattern. + """Check if topic matches pattern (shared semantics, see topic_matching).""" + from quant_platform.core.topic_matching import topic_matches - Patterns: - - Exact: "order.filled" matches only "order.filled" - - Single wildcard: "order.*" matches "order.filled", "order.cancelled" - - Double wildcard: "**" matches everything - """ - if pattern == '**': - return True - if pattern == topic: - return True - - # Split into parts - pattern_parts = pattern.split('.') - topic_parts = topic.split('.') - - if len(pattern_parts) != len(topic_parts): - return False - - for pp, tp in zip(pattern_parts, topic_parts, strict=False): - if pp == '*': - continue - if pp != tp: - return False - - return True + return topic_matches(topic, pattern) # ── Consumer Loops ── async def start(self): """Start all consumer loops. Call once at application startup.""" - self._loop = asyncio.get_event_loop() + if self._started: + return + self._loop = asyncio.get_running_loop() + self._started = True + + # Subscription queues belong to the event loop that was running when + # the handler subscribed. After a stop/start pair (repeated app + # lifespans, test clients) that loop is gone; reusing its queues makes + # every consumer loop raise "bound to a different event loop" in a + # tight loop. Rebuild the transport and keep the subscriptions. with self._lock: for topic, handlers in self._handlers.items(): + rebuilt = [] for handler, queue, stats, handler_type in handlers: - key = f"{topic}:{stats.handler_name}" - if key not in self._consumer_tasks: - if handler_type == 'async': - task = asyncio.create_task( - self._async_consumer_loop(handler, queue, stats) - ) - else: - task = asyncio.create_task( - self._sync_consumer_loop(handler, queue, stats) - ) - self._consumer_tasks[key] = task + new_queue = asyncio.Queue(maxsize=queue.maxsize) + self._queue_keys.pop(id(queue), None) + rebuilt.append((handler, new_queue, stats, handler_type)) + self._handlers[topic] = rebuilt + registered = [ + (topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type) + for topic, handlers in self._handlers.items() + for handler, queue, stats, handler_type in handlers + ] + for topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type in registered: + self._start_consumer_task(topic, handler, queue, stats, handler_type) # Start DLQ retry loop self._dlq_task = asyncio.create_task(self._dlq_retry_loop()) @@ -732,6 +825,9 @@ async def start(self): async def stop(self): """Gracefully stop all consumers. Flush WAL.""" + if not self._started: + return + # Cancel all consumer tasks for task in self._consumer_tasks.values(): task.cancel() @@ -753,6 +849,7 @@ async def stop(self): self._consumer_tasks.clear() self._dlq_task = None self._loop = None + self._started = False # Close event store self._event_store.close() @@ -793,6 +890,9 @@ async def _async_consumer_loop( except Exception as e: logger.error("Consumer loop error for '%s': %s", stats.handler_name, e) + # Never spin: a loop-bound queue or a broken handler would + # otherwise flood the log at millions of lines per second. + await asyncio.sleep(0.05) async def _sync_consumer_loop( self, @@ -829,6 +929,7 @@ async def _sync_consumer_loop( except Exception as e: logger.error("Sync consumer loop error for '%s': %s", stats.handler_name, e) + await asyncio.sleep(0.05) async def _dlq_retry_loop(self): """Periodically retry dead letters.""" @@ -881,7 +982,7 @@ def get_handler_stats(self) -> list[dict]: def get_metrics(self) -> dict: """Get bus-level metrics.""" with self._metrics_lock: - metrics = dict(self._metrics) + metrics: dict[str, Any] = dict(self._metrics) with self._lock: metrics["active_handlers"] = sum(len(h) for h in self._handlers.values()) diff --git a/core/events.py b/core/events.py index 3313765..009c186 100644 --- a/core/events.py +++ b/core/events.py @@ -53,6 +53,7 @@ from quant_platform.core.event_bus_v2 import ( # noqa: E402 AsyncEventBus, ) +from quant_platform.core.topic_matching import topic_matches # noqa: E402 # Type alias for event handlers EventHandler = Callable[[Any], None] @@ -141,7 +142,7 @@ def _deliver(self, event: LegacyEvent): with self._lock: handlers = list(self._handlers.get(event.topic, [])) for pattern, pattern_handlers in self._handlers.items(): - if pattern.endswith('.*') and event.topic.startswith(pattern[:-2]) or pattern == '*': + if pattern != event.topic and topic_matches(event.topic, pattern): handlers.extend(pattern_handlers) for handler in handlers: @@ -162,8 +163,7 @@ def get_history(self, topic: str = "", limit: int = 50) -> list[dict]: with self._lock: events = self._history if topic: - events = [e for e in events if e.topic == topic or - (topic.endswith('.*') and e.topic.startswith(topic[:-2]))] + events = [e for e in events if topic_matches(e.topic, topic)] return [e.to_dict() for e in events[-limit:]] def get_dead_letters(self) -> list[dict]: diff --git a/core/exchange_calendar.py b/core/exchange_calendar.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..60bc11b --- /dev/null +++ b/core/exchange_calendar.py @@ -0,0 +1,26 @@ +"""A-share exchange trading calendar — compatibility re-export. + +The canonical implementation moved to ``quant_platform.utils.exchange_calendar`` +so that research-core modules (e.g. the synthetic data provider under +``data/``) can share the holiday table without importing ``core/``, which the +core -> live boundary in ``tests/test_architecture/test_core_boundaries.py`` +forbids. Live modules may keep importing this path; it re-exports the same +objects, so ``core.exchange_calendar.EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS`` and +``utils.exchange_calendar.EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS`` are one and the same frozenset. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from quant_platform.utils.exchange_calendar import ( + EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS, + _extra_holidays, + is_trading_day, + trading_days, +) + +__all__ = [ + "EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS", + "is_trading_day", + "trading_days", + "_extra_holidays", +] diff --git a/core/instrument.py b/core/instrument.py index 154e324..eedea67 100644 --- a/core/instrument.py +++ b/core/instrument.py @@ -17,6 +17,30 @@ from enum import StrEnum from typing import Any +# Canonical symbol helpers live in `shared/` so the research core +# (`data/pipeline.py` board limits) can use them without importing this live +# module; they are re-exported here as the public instrument API. +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import ( + EXCHANGES, + infer_exchange, + normalize_symbol, + price_limit_threshold, + symbol_code, + symbol_exchange, +) + +__all__ = [ + "EXCHANGES", + "AssetUniverse", + "Instrument", + "InstrumentType", + "infer_exchange", + "normalize_symbol", + "price_limit_threshold", + "symbol_code", + "symbol_exchange", +] + class InstrumentType(StrEnum): """Supported asset classes.""" @@ -107,7 +131,13 @@ def commission(self, price: float, quantity: int, side: str = "buy") -> float: return self.notional(price, quantity) * rate def stamp_tax(self, price: float, quantity: int, side: str = "buy") -> float: - """Calculate stamp tax. Only applies to sell side for equities.""" + """Calculate stamp tax. Only applies to sell side for equities. + + Futures and options are always exempt, whatever `stamp_tax_rate` + says: the tax is a securities-transaction levy on cash equities. + """ + if self.is_derivative: + return 0.0 if side != "sell": return 0.0 rate = self.stamp_tax_rate if self.stamp_tax_rate is not None else 0.001 @@ -115,17 +145,17 @@ def stamp_tax(self, price: float, quantity: int, side: str = "buy") -> float: @classmethod def stock(cls, symbol: str, exchange: str = "SSE") -> Instrument: - """Factory for A-share stock (default parameters).""" - # Determine price limit based on board - price_limit = 0.10 - if symbol.startswith(("300", "301", "688")): - price_limit = 0.20 # 创业板/科创板 20% + """Factory for A-share stock (default parameters). + The price limit is taken from the normalized six-digit code, so + Beijing (``4``/``8``/``920``) names get 30% and prefix/suffix forms + get the correct board rule instead of the raw-label fallback. + """ return cls( symbol=symbol, asset_type=InstrumentType.STOCK, exchange=exchange, multiplier=1.0, tick_size=0.01, lot_size=100, margin_rate=1.0, t_plus=1, - price_limit=price_limit, + price_limit=price_limit_threshold(symbol), ) @classmethod @@ -165,22 +195,39 @@ def commodity_future(cls, symbol: str, multiplier: float = 10, @classmethod def from_dict(cls, data: dict[str, Any]) -> Instrument: - """Create from config dict.""" + """Create from config dict. + + Missing keys fall back to defaults for the *declared* asset class. + Previously every missing key took the stock default, so a futures + contract read from config without explicit overrides got a 0.1% + stamp tax, a 100-contract lot size and T+1 settlement. Futures and + options trade in single contracts, settle T+0 and are stamp-tax + exempt; stocks/ETFs keep the A-share rules. + """ at = data.get("asset_type", "stock") if isinstance(at, str): at = InstrumentType(at) + derivative = at in (InstrumentType.FUTURE, InstrumentType.OPTION) + if derivative: + default_stamp_tax: float | None = 0.0 + default_lot_size = 1 + default_t_plus = 0 + else: + default_stamp_tax = None # stamp_tax() then applies the A-share 0.1% + default_lot_size = 100 + default_t_plus = 1 return cls( symbol=data.get("symbol", ""), asset_type=at, exchange=data.get("exchange", "SSE"), multiplier=data.get("multiplier", 1.0), tick_size=data.get("tick_size", 0.01), - lot_size=data.get("lot_size", 100), + lot_size=data.get("lot_size", default_lot_size), margin_rate=data.get("margin_rate", 1.0), commission_rate=data.get("commission_rate"), commission_per_lot=data.get("commission_per_lot", 0.0), - stamp_tax_rate=data.get("stamp_tax_rate"), - t_plus=data.get("t_plus", 1), + stamp_tax_rate=data.get("stamp_tax_rate", default_stamp_tax), + t_plus=data.get("t_plus", default_t_plus), price_limit=data.get("price_limit", 0.10), underlying=data.get("underlying", ""), expiry=data.get("expiry", ""), @@ -204,12 +251,49 @@ def add(self, instrument: Instrument) -> None: self._instruments[instrument.symbol] = instrument def get(self, symbol: str) -> Instrument | None: - """Look up instrument by symbol. Returns None if not found.""" - return self._instruments.get(symbol) + """Look up instrument by symbol. Returns None if not found. + + Lookup accepts bare and canonical forms interchangeably: a broker + position keyed ``600519.SH`` still finds an instrument configured as + ``600519`` (and vice versa). An *explicitly* labelled exchange is + never collapsed onto a same-numbered instrument on another exchange + (``000001.SH`` index vs ``000001.SZ`` stock); only a bare code may + fall back to a six-digit match. + """ + inst = self._instruments.get(symbol) + if inst is not None: + return inst + canonical = normalize_symbol(symbol) + inst = self._instruments.get(canonical) + if inst is not None: + return inst + text = str(symbol).strip().upper() + explicit = text.endswith(EXCHANGES) or text.startswith(EXCHANGES) + code = symbol_code(symbol) + if code is not None: + request_exchange = ( + symbol_exchange(symbol) if explicit else infer_exchange(code) + ) + for registered, candidate in self._instruments.items(): + if symbol_code(registered) != code: + continue + registered_text = str(registered).strip().upper() + registered_explicit = ( + registered_text.endswith(EXCHANGES) + or registered_text.startswith(EXCHANGES) + ) + registered_exchange = ( + symbol_exchange(registered) if registered_explicit + else infer_exchange(code) + ) + if explicit and registered_exchange != request_exchange: + continue + return candidate + return None def get_or_default(self, symbol: str) -> Instrument: """Look up instrument, falling back to stock defaults.""" - inst = self._instruments.get(symbol) + inst = self.get(symbol) if inst is not None: return inst return Instrument.stock(symbol) diff --git a/core/scheduler.py b/core/scheduler.py index 3ac0b4b..3194ee1 100644 --- a/core/scheduler.py +++ b/core/scheduler.py @@ -6,25 +6,94 @@ - Trading session lifecycle - Post-market reconciliation (save P&L, reconcile positions) - Rebalance timing +- Startup catch-up for EOD reconciliation missed during downtime (S3) Integrates with EventBus and StateMachine. """ from __future__ import annotations +import math +import os import threading import time import uuid from dataclasses import dataclass -from datetime import datetime +from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta +from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo from quant_platform.core.events import EventBus, get_event_bus +from quant_platform.core.exchange_calendar import is_trading_day from quant_platform.core.state_machine import PortfolioState, PortfolioStateMachine -from quant_platform.core.store import Store +from quant_platform.core.store import RetentionPolicy, Store +from quant_platform.operations.reconciliation import ( + expected_book_from_ledger, + ledger_from_trades, + positions_from_broker, + reconcile, +) from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger +from quant_platform.utils.metrics import get_metrics logger = get_logger(__name__) +DEFAULT_EXCHANGE_TZ = "Asia/Shanghai" + +#: A zero/negative interval made ``Event.wait(timeout=...)`` return +#: immediately, turning the scheduler/engine loops into a tight loop that +#: hammered the broker (S20). Five seconds is the documented floor. +MIN_REBALANCE_INTERVAL = 5 + +#: Exchange wall-clock close. EOD reconciliation must never run before this +#: on a trading day (S1): a 09:00 engine start used to look like "market +#: closed while TRADING" and wrote the day's P&L snapshot before the open. +EOD_HOUR = 15 +EOD_MINUTE = 0 + +#: Bound on startup EOD backfill (S3). +MAX_EOD_CATCHUP_DAYS = 10 + +#: Minimum spacing between identical scheduler alerts (seconds). The alert +#: sink deduplicates for five minutes as well; this only keeps the EventBus +#: history from filling with one event per tick. +ALERT_THROTTLE_SECONDS = 300.0 + +#: R11: tolerances for the daily books-vs-broker reconciliation, as +#: ``(environment variable, default)``. The defaults mirror ``reconcile()``. +RECON_TOLERANCE_ENV = { + "shares": ("QUANT_RECON_SHARES_TOLERANCE", 0.0), + "cash": ("QUANT_RECON_CASH_TOLERANCE", 1000.0), + "cash_bps": ("QUANT_RECON_CASH_TOLERANCE_BPS", 0.0), + "materiality": ("QUANT_RECON_MATERIALITY", 0.0), +} + + +def _reconciliation_tolerances_from_env() -> dict: + """Read the ``QUANT_RECON_*`` tolerances; invalid values raise ValueError. + + An unset or empty variable takes the default. Anything that is not a + finite, non-negative number is rejected (fail loud): a typo must not + silently widen or narrow the daily reconciliation. + """ + values: dict[str, float] = {} + for key, (env, default) in RECON_TOLERANCE_ENV.items(): + raw = os.environ.get(env) + if raw is None or not raw.strip(): + values[key] = default + continue + try: + value = float(raw) + except ValueError as exc: + raise ValueError( + f"{env} must be a number, got {raw!r}" + ) from exc + if not math.isfinite(value) or value < 0: + raise ValueError( + f"{env} must be a finite non-negative number, got {raw!r}" + ) + values[key] = value + return values + @dataclass class MarketSession: @@ -57,37 +126,211 @@ def __init__( store: Store, bus: EventBus | None = None, rebalance_interval: int = 300, # seconds + exchange_tz: str = DEFAULT_EXCHANGE_TZ, + broker: object | None = None, + engine_state_key: str = "", + tenant_id: str = "", + retention_policy: RetentionPolicy | None = None, + retention_archive_dir: str = "data/archive", ): + # S20: an interval below the floor used to make the wait return + # immediately; validate in the constructor so every entry point + # (engine, API, CLI, embedded) inherits the guard. + try: + interval = int(rebalance_interval) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + raise ValueError( + f"rebalance_interval must be an integer number of seconds, " + f"got {rebalance_interval!r}" + ) from exc + if interval < MIN_REBALANCE_INTERVAL: + raise ValueError( + f"rebalance_interval must be >= {MIN_REBALANCE_INTERVAL}s, " + f"got {interval}" + ) self._sm = state_machine self._store = store self._bus = bus or get_event_bus() - self._rebalance_interval = rebalance_interval + self._rebalance_interval = interval + # Market hours are Shanghai wall-clock times. `datetime.now()` on a + # UTC container (the shipped Docker image) put the session seven + # hours off: "closed" during the real session and "trading_am" at + # 17:30 Beijing. + self._tz = ZoneInfo(exchange_tz) + + # S2: where the EOD reconciliation may read equity from. The engine + # passes its broker and its tenant-scoped engine_state key; a + # standalone scheduler falls back to the latest persisted snapshot. + self._broker = broker + self._engine_state_key = engine_state_key or "" + self._tenant_id = tenant_id or "" + + # S10: daily retention hook after EOD. + self._retention_policy = ( + retention_policy if retention_policy is not None + else RetentionPolicy.from_env() + ) + self._retention_archive_dir = retention_archive_dir + + # R11: tolerances for the daily books-vs-broker reconciliation. + # Parsed at construction so a typo in QUANT_RECON_* fails the + # scheduler loudly instead of silently reconciling with defaults. + self._recon_tolerances = _reconciliation_tolerances_from_env() self._running = False self._thread: threading.Thread | None = None self._stop_event = threading.Event() self._session_id = "" - self._last_rebalance = 0 + self._owns_session = True + self._last_rebalance = 0.0 + self._last_rebalance_at = "" + self._rebalance_count = 0 self._cycle_count = 0 + self._last_tick_at = 0.0 + # -inf, not 0.0: a fresh container's monotonic clock can be below the + # 60 s rate limit, which would swallow the first tick-failure alert. + self._last_tick_alert = float("-inf") + self._alert_throttle: dict[str, float] = {} + # How long stop() waits for the tick loop before reporting it stuck. + self._stop_join_timeout = 10.0 + # Periodic (hourly) scan for missed EOD markers; startup catch-up + # handles restarts, this handles a process that stays up across a + # missed window (host sleep, no equity source all evening). + # -inf, not 0.0: time.monotonic() is time-since-boot on Windows and + # can legitimately be below 3600. + self._catchup_interval_seconds = 3600.0 + self._last_catchup_at = float("-inf") + + def _now(self) -> datetime: + return datetime.now(self._tz) + + @staticmethod + def _naive_local(now: datetime) -> str: + """ISO timestamp in exchange local time, naive like the rest of the store.""" + return now.replace(tzinfo=None).isoformat() + + # ── Heartbeat / alerts ── + + def _record_tick_heartbeat(self) -> None: + self._last_tick_at = time.time() + try: + get_metrics().gauge( + "last_scheduler_tick_timestamp", + help="Epoch seconds of the last completed scheduler tick", + ).set(self._last_tick_at) + except Exception: # metrics must never break scheduling + pass + + def _publish_alert(self, severity: str, message: str, + details: dict | None = None) -> bool: + """Publish a throttled operational alert for the sink handler. - def start(self): - """Start the scheduler.""" + Returns True when the alert was emitted (callers can keep noisy log + lines at the same rate instead of once per tick). + """ + key = f"{severity}|{message}" + now = time.monotonic() + # Missing key means "never emitted". Using 0.0 as the sentinel + # suppressed the first alert on a freshly booted host or container, + # where time.monotonic() can legitimately be below the throttle. + last = self._alert_throttle.get(key) + if last is not None and now - last < ALERT_THROTTLE_SECONDS: + return False + self._alert_throttle[key] = now + if severity in ("critical", "error"): + logger.error("Scheduler alert [%s]: %s", severity, message) + self._bus.publish("system.alert", { + "severity": severity, + "message": message, + "source": "scheduler", + **(details or {}), + }, source="scheduler") + return True + + # ── Lifecycle ── + + def start(self, session_id: str | None = None): + """Start the scheduler. + + ``session_id`` lets the live engine reuse its own session record + instead of creating a second row for the same run (S20). A stand-alone + scheduler creates and owns its session. + """ if self._running: return + # D14 for the scheduler: never clear an Event a live thread may be + # waiting on. A tick can exceed the stop join timeout (EOD retention + # runs inside it), and the old `clear()` resurrected that thread, + # producing two scheduler loops after a restart. + previous = self._thread + if previous is not None and previous.is_alive(): + previous.join(timeout=1.0) + if previous.is_alive(): + message = ( + "Scheduler start refused: previous loop thread is still " + "alive; stop it and wait for the tick to quiesce" + ) + logger.critical(message) + self._bus.publish("system.alert", { + "severity": "critical", "message": message, + "source": "scheduler", + }, source="scheduler") + raise RuntimeError(message) + self._thread = None + self._stop_event = threading.Event() + self._running = True - self._session_id = uuid.uuid4().hex[:12] - self._stop_event.clear() + self._session_id = session_id or uuid.uuid4().hex[:12] + self._owns_session = not session_id - # Record session - self._store.save_session({ - "session_id": self._session_id, - "status": "active", - "started_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), - }) + if self._owns_session: + try: + self._store.save_session({ + "session_id": self._session_id, + "status": "active", + "started_at": self._naive_local(self._now()), + }) + except Exception as exc: + # A session row is observability, not a precondition for + # scheduling; the engine's own session write is separate. + logger.error("Scheduler session record failed: %s", exc) - self._thread = threading.Thread(target=self._run_loop, daemon=True) - self._thread.start() + # S3: bootstrap INIT -> READY and reconcile EOD days missed while the + # process was down, before the tick loop starts. + try: + self._bootstrap_and_catch_up() + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Scheduler startup catch-up failed: %s", exc, exc_info=True) + self._publish_alert( + "error", f"scheduler startup catch-up failed: {exc}", + ) + self._last_catchup_at = time.monotonic() + + self._record_tick_heartbeat() + try: + self._thread = threading.Thread( + target=self._run_loop, args=(self._stop_event,), daemon=True, + ) + self._thread.start() + except Exception as exc: + # Do not leave `_running=True` without a loop: retries would + # return early and get_state would claim a live scheduler. + self._running = False + self._thread = None + if self._owns_session and self._session_id: + try: + self._store.save_session({ + "session_id": self._session_id, + "status": "failed", + "stopped_at": self._naive_local(self._now()), + }) + except Exception: + pass + self._publish_alert( + "critical", f"scheduler thread start failed: {exc}", + ) + raise self._bus.publish("scheduler.started", { "session_id": self._session_id, @@ -96,18 +339,39 @@ def start(self): logger.info("Scheduler started. Session: %s", self._session_id) def stop(self): - """Stop the scheduler.""" + """Stop the scheduler (best-effort; never raises).""" self._running = False - self._stop_event.set() - if self._thread: - self._thread.join(timeout=10) + stop_event = self._stop_event + if stop_event is not None: + stop_event.set() + thread = self._thread + if thread is not None: + try: + thread.join(timeout=self._stop_join_timeout) + except Exception as exc: # extremely defensive: join can raise + logger.error("Scheduler thread join failed: %s", exc) + if thread.is_alive(): + # Keep `_thread` so a later start() refuses instead of + # running two loops against one store/state machine. + message = ( + f"Scheduler loop thread still alive " + f"{self._stop_join_timeout:.0f}s after stop request" + ) + logger.critical(message) + self._publish_alert( + "critical", message, + {"session_id": self._session_id}, + ) - # Update session - self._store.save_session({ - "session_id": self._session_id, - "status": "stopped", - "stopped_at": datetime.now().isoformat(), - }) + if self._owns_session and self._session_id: + try: + self._store.save_session({ + "session_id": self._session_id, + "status": "stopped", + "stopped_at": self._naive_local(self._now()), + }) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Scheduler session stop record failed: %s", exc) self._bus.publish("scheduler.stopped", { "session_id": self._session_id, @@ -116,17 +380,42 @@ def stop(self): logger.info("Scheduler stopped. Cycles: %d", self._cycle_count) - def get_market_session(self) -> MarketSession: - """Get current market session info.""" - now = datetime.now() + def _bootstrap_and_catch_up(self) -> int: + """INIT -> READY and backfill EOD days missed during downtime. + + A standalone scheduler used to stay in INIT forever (no tick branch + handled INIT), and a scheduler started after the close never ran EOD + for the day it missed (S3). + """ + if self._sm.state == PortfolioState.INIT: + self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.READY, "scheduler bootstrap") + + return self._catch_up_missed_eod() + + def get_market_session(self, now: datetime | None = None) -> MarketSession: + """Get current market session info. + + `now` is an injection point for tests; production uses the exchange + timezone, not the host clock. + """ + now = now or self._now() + if now.tzinfo is None: + now = now.replace(tzinfo=self._tz) + else: + now = now.astimezone(self._tz) + t = now.hour * 100 + now.minute - weekday = now.weekday() session = MarketSession(date=now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")) - if weekday >= 5: + # Weekends and exchange holidays are both non-trading days. The + # holiday table lives in core/exchange_calendar.py (extendable via + # QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS). + if not is_trading_day(now.date()): session.is_trading_day = False - session.status = "closed_weekend" + session.status = ( + "closed_weekend" if now.weekday() >= 5 else "closed_holiday" + ) return session if t < 915: @@ -137,9 +426,14 @@ def get_market_session(self) -> MarketSession: session.status = "trading_am" elif 1130 <= t < 1300: session.status = "lunch" - elif 1300 <= t < 1457: + elif 1300 <= t < 1500: + # The closing call auction (14:57-15:00) is part of the trading + # session. The old 14:57 cutoff declared the market closed three + # minutes before the close and ran EOD reconciliation there. session.status = "trading_pm" - elif 1457 <= t < 1530: + elif 1500 <= t < 1530: + # Post-market (and therefore EOD reconciliation) starts only + # after the 15:00 close. session.status = "post_market" else: session.status = "closed" @@ -168,65 +462,898 @@ def get_state(self) -> dict: "is_market_open": self.is_market_open(), "cycle_count": self._cycle_count, "last_rebalance": self._last_rebalance, + "last_rebalance_at": self._last_rebalance_at, + "rebalance_count": self._rebalance_count, "rebalance_interval": self._rebalance_interval, + "last_tick_at": self._last_tick_at, } - def _run_loop(self): - """Main scheduler loop.""" - while not self._stop_event.is_set(): + def _run_loop(self, stop_event: threading.Event | None = None): + """Main scheduler loop (per-run event; D14-style).""" + event = stop_event if stop_event is not None else self._stop_event + if event is None: + event = threading.Event() + while not event.is_set(): try: self._tick() except Exception as e: - logger.error("Scheduler tick error: %s", e) + self._handle_tick_error(e) - self._stop_event.wait(timeout=30) # Check every 30 seconds + event.wait(timeout=30) # Check every 30 seconds + + def _handle_tick_error(self, exc: Exception) -> None: + """Count and (rate-limited) alert a failed tick (S20). + + A failing tick used to be a log line only, invisible to monitoring. + """ + logger.error("Scheduler tick error: %s", exc, exc_info=True) + try: + get_metrics().counter( + "scheduler_tick_errors_total", + help="Scheduler ticks that raised an exception", + ).inc() + except Exception: + pass + now = time.monotonic() + if now - self._last_tick_alert >= 60.0: + self._last_tick_alert = now + # Dedupe by exception type: varying text (ids/addresses) must not + # defeat the sink's five-minute dedupe and POST every tick. + self._publish_alert( + "error", f"scheduler tick failed: {type(exc).__name__}", + {"error": str(exc)}, + ) def _tick(self): """Single scheduler tick — check market state and trigger transitions.""" - ms = self.get_market_session() + self._cycle_count += 1 + self._record_tick_heartbeat() + now = self._now() + ms = self.get_market_session(now) + + # S3: a stand-alone scheduler (and one embedded in an engine whose + # start() was aborted before its own transition) must leave INIT. + if self._sm.state == PortfolioState.INIT: + self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.READY, "scheduler bootstrap") # State transitions based on market hours if ms.status == "pre_market" and self._sm.can_transition(PortfolioState.PRE_MARKET): self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.PRE_MARKET, "market pre-open") self._bus.publish("market.pre_open", {"date": ms.date}, source="scheduler") - elif ms.status in ("trading_am", "trading_pm") and self._sm.can_transition(PortfolioState.TRADING): + elif ms.status in ("trading_am", "trading_pm"): if self._sm.state != PortfolioState.TRADING and self._sm.state != PortfolioState.REBALANCING: - self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.TRADING, "market open") + if self._sm.can_transition(PortfolioState.TRADING): + self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.TRADING, "market open") + self._maybe_rebalance() - elif ms.status in ("post_market", "closed") and self._sm.state == PortfolioState.TRADING: - self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.POST_MARKET, "market closed") - self._do_eod_reconciliation() + elif ms.status in ("post_market", "closed") and self._in_eod_window(ms, now): + self._handle_eod_window() + + # Once an hour, look for past trading days whose EOD marker is missing + # (today is left to the EOD window above). + self._maybe_catch_up() + + def _maybe_catch_up(self) -> None: + now = time.monotonic() + if now - self._last_catchup_at < self._catchup_interval_seconds: + return + self._last_catchup_at = now + try: + self._catch_up_missed_eod(include_today=False) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Periodic EOD catch-up failed: %s", exc, exc_info=True) + + @staticmethod + def _in_eod_window(ms: MarketSession, now: datetime) -> bool: + """EOD runs only at/after 15:00 on an exchange trading day (S1). - elif ms.status in ("post_market", "closed") and self._sm.state == PortfolioState.POST_MARKET: - # After post-market, go to ready + The old condition keyed on status in ("post_market", "closed"), which + includes every minute before 09:15: a pre-market engine start looked + like a close and reconciled the day before it began. + """ + if not ms.is_trading_day: + return False + return (now.hour, now.minute) >= (EOD_HOUR, EOD_MINUTE) + + def _handle_eod_window(self) -> None: + state = self._sm.state + if state in (PortfolioState.TRADING, PortfolioState.REBALANCING): + if self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.POST_MARKET, "market closed"): + self._do_eod_reconciliation() + elif state == PortfolioState.POST_MARKET: + # Idempotent: the marker suppresses a second snapshot. + self._do_eod_reconciliation() self._sm.transition(PortfolioState.READY, "post-market complete") + elif state in (PortfolioState.HALTED, PortfolioState.ERROR): + # S3: HALTED/ERROR used to skip reconciliation silently. Run it + # (the day still happened) and alert so the missed state is + # visible to an operator. + self._do_eod_reconciliation() + self._publish_alert( + "error", + f"EOD reconciliation ran while portfolio state is {state.value}", + {"state": state.value}, + ) + else: + # READY/PRE_MARKET: a stand-alone scheduler, or a scheduler whose + # engine was started after the close. There is no TRADING + # transition to hang EOD from, so reconcile directly. + self._do_eod_reconciliation() + + def _maybe_rebalance(self) -> None: + """Drive `should_rebalance()` and expose a real last-rebalance stamp. + + The method existed but had no caller and `_last_rebalance` was never + updated, so get_state() reported zero forever (S20). + """ + if not self.should_rebalance(): + return + self._last_rebalance = time.time() + self._last_rebalance_at = self._naive_local(self._now()) + self._rebalance_count += 1 + self._bus.publish("scheduler.rebalance", { + "session_id": self._session_id, + "interval": self._rebalance_interval, + "count": self._rebalance_count, + }, source="scheduler") + + # ── EOD reconciliation (S1/S2/S3) ── + + def _do_eod_reconciliation( + self, date_str: str | None = None, catch_up: bool = False, + ) -> bool: + """End-of-day reconciliation: save a P&L snapshot, log events. + + Runs at most once per exchange-local date. Without a persisted + marker a scheduler restarted after the close wrote a second snapshot + for the same day, double-counting it in P&L history. + + Equity comes from the broker account or the engine state persisted by + the live engine (S2). The old hard-coded 1,000,000 fabricated a + snapshot for any book with no prior P&L; when neither source is + available the day is skipped, alerted and counted instead. + + R11/R12: once the snapshot is durable, the expected book derived from + the engine-start baseline plus stored fills (trade ledger) is + reconciled against the broker's positions and account cash (actual). + The outcome is persisted to ``reconciliation_results`` and added to + the ``eod.reconciliation`` event. A repeated trigger never writes a + second result; a day whose marker exists but whose result is missing + (an upgraded database) has only the result backfilled — never a + second snapshot. + """ + target = date_str or self._now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + try: + marked = self._store.has_eod_reconciliation(target) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD marker read failed for %s: %s", target, exc) + return False + + if marked: + if not catch_up: + logger.info("EOD reconciliation already done for %s; skipping", target) + return self._backfill_missing_reconciliation(target) + + # S2/S3: a missed *past* day has no observation we can honestly + # reconstruct. Writing today's equity under a historical date would + # fabricate the missed day's P&L (the failure S2 removed). Mark the + # day reconciled (so it is not retried forever) without a snapshot, + # and alert the operator about the history gap. + if catch_up and target != self._now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"): + return self._backfill_historical_eod(target) + + equity, cash, positions, source = self._resolve_eod_values() + if equity is None: + self._skip_eod(target) + return False + + market_value = sum(self._position_market_value(p) for p in positions) + if cash is None: + cash = max(0.0, equity - market_value) + + timestamp = ( + f"{target}T15:00:00" if catch_up + else self._naive_local(self._now()) + ) + snapshot = { + "timestamp": timestamp, + "total_equity": equity, + "cash": cash, + "market_value": market_value, + "n_positions": len(positions), + } + try: + # Snapshot + marker share one transaction: a crash between two + # writes would otherwise leave an unmarked snapshot and double- + # count the day on the next run. A racing process that already + # claimed the day makes this return False (no snapshot). + written = self._store.save_pnl_and_mark_eod( + snapshot, target, timestamp, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.critical( + "EOD reconciliation failed for %s; no marker written: %s", + target, exc, + ) + self._publish_alert( + "critical", f"EOD reconciliation failed for {target}: {exc}", + ) + return False + + if not written: + logger.info( + "EOD reconciliation for %s was already claimed by another " + "run; no duplicate snapshot written", target, + ) + return False + + # R11: reconcile the persisted book against the broker counter-book + # (persisted to reconciliation_results), then publish one enriched + # eod.reconciliation event. The snapshot stays durable even when the + # reconciliation cannot run. + recon = self._run_eod_reconciliation(target, snapshot=snapshot) + self._publish_eod_reconciliation( + target, len(positions), market_value, equity, source, catch_up, + recon, + ) + + logger.info( + "EOD reconciliation %s: %d positions, equity=%.2f (source=%s), " + "books-vs-broker=%s", + target, len(positions), equity, source, recon["status"], + ) + + if target == self._now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"): + # Daily retention after today's EOD, whether it was written by + # the normal 15:00 tick or by the startup catch-up. + self._run_retention_hook() + return True + + def _backfill_historical_eod(self, target: str) -> bool: + """Reconcile a missed historical day without inventing its equity. + + If the engine wrote snapshots for that date (it was running but the + scheduler missed the window), the existing rows are the observation: + only the marker is written. Otherwise the day is marked as reconciled + with no P&L row and an alert records the gap, so drawdown/VaR never + see a fabricated flat day. + """ + rows: list[dict] = [] + try: + rows = self._store.get_pnl_history( + start_date=target, end_date=target, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD catch-up snapshot read failed for %s: %s", target, exc) + rows = [] + + marker_ts = ( + str(rows[-1].get("timestamp") or f"{target}T15:00:00") + if rows else f"{target}T15:00:00" + ) + try: + self._store.mark_eod_reconciliation(target, marker_ts) + except Exception as exc: + logger.critical( + "EOD catch-up marker write failed for %s: %s", target, exc, + ) + self._publish_alert( + "critical", f"EOD catch-up marker write failed for {target}: {exc}", + {"date": target}, + ) + return False + + if rows: + logger.warning( + "EOD catch-up %s: marker written using %d existing snapshot(s)", + target, len(rows), + ) + else: + message = ( + f"EOD catch-up for {target}: no snapshot exists for that day; " + "marker written without inventing equity (P&L history gap)" + ) + logger.critical(message) + self._publish_alert( + "warning", message, {"date": target, "marker_only": True}, + ) + + self._bus.publish("eod.reconciliation", { + "date": target, + "positions": 0, + "market_value": 0.0, + "total_equity": None, + "equity_source": "backfill-marker-only" if not rows else "existing-snapshot", + "catch_up": True, + "marker_only": not rows, + # R11: keep the topic's payload shape uniform. A historical day + # is never compared against today's broker book (that would + # fabricate an observation), so its reconciliation is unknown. + "status": "unknown", + "basis": "trade_ledger", + "passes": False, + "n_mismatched": 0, + "cash_diff": None, + "total_mismatch_value": None, + "reason": "historical day: no broker/book observation to reconcile", + }, source="scheduler") + return True + + # ── Daily books-vs-broker reconciliation (R11) ── + + def _backfill_missing_reconciliation(self, target: str) -> bool: + """Write today's missing reconciliation result without a snapshot. + + An upgraded database can already hold the day's EOD marker (and its + P&L snapshot) from before the daily books-vs-broker step existed. + Only *today's* observation is backfilled: a historical day's counter- + book no longer exists, and reconciling it against today's broker + would fabricate an observation — the same failure class as S2. + Never returns True: this call writes no snapshot and no marker. + """ + if target != self._now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"): + return False + try: + existing = self._store.get_reconciliation_result(target) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation result read failed for %s: %s", target, exc, + ) + return False + if existing is not None: + return False + + snapshot = self._latest_pnl_snapshot(target) + result = self._run_eod_reconciliation(target, snapshot=snapshot) + positions = int(snapshot.get("n_positions") or 0) if snapshot else 0 + market_value = float(snapshot.get("market_value") or 0.0) if snapshot else 0.0 + equity = snapshot.get("total_equity") if snapshot else None + self._publish_eod_reconciliation( + target, positions, market_value, equity, + "existing-snapshot" if snapshot else "marker-only", + catch_up=False, result=result, backfill=True, + ) + logger.warning( + "EOD reconciliation %s: backfilled the missing books-vs-broker " + "result (%s) from the existing snapshot; no new snapshot written", + target, result["status"], + ) + return False + + def _run_eod_reconciliation( + self, target: str, snapshot: dict | None = None, + ) -> dict: + """Compute and persist the day's books-vs-broker outcome (R11/R12). + + Never raises: the EOD snapshot is already durable, and a broken + reconciliation must neither undo it nor stop the event. A failure + to compute is recorded as ``unknown`` (fail loud: never a pass). + """ + try: + result = self._compute_reconciliation(target, snapshot) + except Exception as exc: + logger.critical( + "EOD books-vs-broker reconciliation failed for %s: %s", + target, exc, exc_info=True, + ) + result = self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"reconciliation failed: {exc}", + ) + try: + self._store.save_reconciliation_result(result) + except Exception as exc: + # Keep the computed outcome in the event/log; the next EOD tick + # sees the missing row and backfills it. + logger.critical( + "EOD reconciliation result write failed for %s: %s", + result.get("date"), exc, + ) + return result + + def _compute_reconciliation( + self, target: str, snapshot: dict | None, + ) -> dict: + """expected = trade ledger (startup baseline + stored fills), actual = broker. + + R12: the expected leg is derived from the newest ``ledger_baselines`` + row -- the broker's cash/positions captured when the engine started -- + plus the fills stored after it (``ledger_from_trades``). The R11 + expected side (Store positions + the day's P&L snapshot cash) is gone: + on the normal EOD path that snapshot's cash came from the very broker + account being compared, so the cash arm was a self-comparison. + + Without a baseline the comparison cannot honestly run: the result is + ``status="unknown"`` with reason ``no_ledger_baseline``. The Store + position book is never used as a fallback expected leg. + + ``snapshot`` is kept for the caller's signature (its counts feed the + event) but no longer feeds the comparison. + + Price basis: expected positions are valued at the actual (broker) + price for the same asset (baseline ``avg_cost`` only when the asset is + missing from the broker book), so only quantities and cash are + compared -- a price-basis difference cannot manufacture a mismatch. + + Coverage: only fills persisted in the ``trades`` table move the + expected leg. Adapters that fill asynchronously (QMT/XTP) do not + persist their fills there today, so such a day fails loudly against + the stale baseline rather than passing; persisting async fills is a + separate change (R12 scope forbids changing the broker/engine fill + path). + """ + timestamp = self._naive_local(self._now()) + tolerances = dict(self._recon_tolerances) + + try: + baseline = self._store.get_latest_ledger_baseline( + self._tenant_id, self._engine_state_key, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation ledger baseline read failed: %s", exc, + ) + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"ledger baseline query failed: {exc}", timestamp, + ) + if baseline is None: + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "no_ledger_baseline", timestamp, + ) + try: + trades = self._store.get_trades_for_export( + tenant_id=self._tenant_id, + start_date=str(baseline.get("created_at") or "")[:10], + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation trade ledger read failed: %s", exc, + ) + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"trade ledger query failed: {exc}", timestamp, + ) + try: + ledger = ledger_from_trades(baseline, trades) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation ledger derivation failed: %s", exc, + ) + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"trade ledger derivation failed: {exc}", timestamp, + ) + + broker = self._broker + if broker is None: + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "no broker attached; counter-book unknown", timestamp, + ) + try: + broker_positions = broker.get_positions() + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation broker position query failed: %s", exc, + ) + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"broker position query failed: {exc}", timestamp, + ) + if broker_positions is None: + # The broker contract: None means the query failed. Treating it + # as a flat account would "pass" a book we never observed. + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "broker positions unknown (None)", timestamp, + ) + try: + account = broker.get_account() or {} + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation broker account query failed: %s", exc, + ) + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, f"broker account query failed: {exc}", timestamp, + ) + if not isinstance(account, dict): + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "broker account payload is not a dict", timestamp, + ) + if account.get("connected") is False: + # A disconnected QMT/XTP adapter serves placeholder balances; + # the snapshot path already refuses them (S2). + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "broker reports disconnected", timestamp, + ) + actual_cash = account.get("cash") + if not self._is_number(actual_cash): + return self._unknown_reconciliation( + target, "broker account has no usable cash", timestamp, + ) + + actual_book = positions_from_broker(list(broker_positions)) + # Baseline cost per asset values an expected-only leg (a position the + # broker book no longer lists); it never prices an asset the broker + # holds -- that leg uses the broker's own mark. + avg_costs: dict[str, float] = {} + for code, entry in (baseline.get("positions") or {}).items(): + if not isinstance(entry, dict): + continue + try: + avg_costs[str(code)] = float(entry.get("avg_cost") or 0.0) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + expected_book = expected_book_from_ledger( + ledger["positions"], actual_book, avg_costs, + ) + + report = reconcile( + expected_book, + actual_book, + float(ledger["cash"]), + float(actual_cash), + tolerance=tolerances["shares"], + cash_tolerance=tolerances["cash"], + cash_tolerance_bps=tolerances["cash_bps"], + mismatch_materiality=tolerances["materiality"], + ) + status = "passed" if report.passes else "failed" + reason = None + if status == "passed": + # Materiality must not absorb a mismatch we cannot value: an + # expected-only leg with no broker mark and no baseline cost is + # worth 0 in total_mismatch_value, so QUANT_RECON_MATERIALITY>0 + # would otherwise hide a vanished position as a pass. + unpriced = sorted( + row.asset for row in report.details + if not row.is_matched + and max(float(row.expected_price), + float(row.actual_price)) <= 0 + ) + if unpriced: + status = "failed" + reason = "unpriced mismatch: " + ", ".join(unpriced) + if status == "failed": + self._log_reconciliation_failure( + report, tolerances, float(ledger["cash"]), float(actual_cash), + ) + result = { + "date": target, + "timestamp": timestamp, + "status": status, + "basis": "trade_ledger", + "n_positions": report.total_positions, + "n_mismatched": report.mismatched, + "cash_diff": report.cash_diff, + "total_mismatch_value": report.total_mismatch_value, + "details": [ + { + "asset": row.asset, + "expected_shares": row.expected_shares, + "actual_shares": row.actual_shares, + "expected_price": row.expected_price, + "actual_price": row.actual_price, + "diff": row.diff, + "tolerance": row.tolerance, + "is_matched": row.is_matched, + } + for row in report.details + ], + "tolerances": tolerances, + } + if reason: + result["reason"] = reason + return result + + @staticmethod + def _log_reconciliation_failure( + report, tolerances: dict, + expected_cash: float, actual_cash: float, + ) -> None: + """Log the first few breaching positions and any cash breach.""" + for row in [row for row in report.details if not row.is_matched][:5]: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation mismatch %s: expected=%s actual=%s diff=%s", + row.asset, row.expected_shares, row.actual_shares, row.diff, + ) + cash_limit = tolerances["cash"] + ( + tolerances["cash_bps"] / 10_000.0 + * max(abs(expected_cash), abs(actual_cash)) + ) + if abs(report.cash_diff) > cash_limit: + logger.error( + "EOD reconciliation cash mismatch: expected=%.2f actual=%.2f " + "diff=%.2f limit=%.2f", + expected_cash, actual_cash, report.cash_diff, cash_limit, + ) + + def _unknown_reconciliation( + self, target: str, reason: str, timestamp: str | None = None, + ) -> dict: + """A comparison that could not run: never a pass, never a zero diff.""" + return { + "date": target, + "timestamp": timestamp or self._naive_local(self._now()), + "status": "unknown", + "basis": "trade_ledger", + "n_positions": 0, + "n_mismatched": 0, + "cash_diff": None, + "total_mismatch_value": None, + "details": [], + "tolerances": dict(self._recon_tolerances), + "reason": reason, + } + + def _latest_pnl_snapshot(self, target: str) -> dict | None: + """Newest P&L snapshot for `target`, or None. + + The EOD snapshot is written under the store's default tenant (the + snapshot dict carries no tenant_id), so this read is deliberately + unscoped — the same basis ``save_pnl_and_mark_eod`` writes with. In + a multi-tenant deployment every EOD snapshot shares that default + tenant; tenant-scoped EOD snapshots are a separate change. + """ + try: + rows = self._store.get_pnl_history( + start_date=target, end_date=target, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD P&L snapshot read failed for %s: %s", target, exc) + return None + return rows[-1] if rows else None + + def _publish_eod_reconciliation( + self, target: str, positions: int, market_value: float, + equity: float | None, source: str, catch_up: bool, result: dict, + backfill: bool = False, + ) -> None: + """Publish the enriched ``eod.reconciliation`` event (R11). + + The legacy keys are kept verbatim; the reconciliation outcome is + added as ``status``/``passes``/``n_mismatched``/``cash_diff``/ + ``total_mismatch_value``. + """ + payload = { + "date": target, + "positions": positions, + "market_value": market_value, + "total_equity": equity, + "equity_source": source, + "catch_up": catch_up, + "status": result["status"], + # R12: the expected leg is the derived trade ledger + # (startup baseline + stored fills). + "basis": result.get("basis", "trade_ledger"), + # An unknown comparison is not a pass (fail loud). + "passes": result["status"] == "passed", + "n_mismatched": result.get("n_mismatched", 0), + "cash_diff": result.get("cash_diff"), + "total_mismatch_value": result.get("total_mismatch_value"), + } + if result.get("reason"): + payload["reason"] = result["reason"] + if backfill: + payload["backfill"] = True + self._bus.publish("eod.reconciliation", payload, source="scheduler") + + def _resolve_eod_values( + self, + ) -> tuple[float | None, float | None, list, str]: + """Equity/cash/positions from the broker or persisted engine state. + + Returns ``(equity, cash, positions, source)``; equity is None when no + trustworthy source exists. + """ + broker = self._broker + if broker is not None: + try: + account = broker.get_account() or {} + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD broker account query failed: %s", exc) + account = {} + if not isinstance(account, dict): + account = {} + # A disconnected QMT/XTP adapter returns its `initial_cash` as a + # placeholder balance (trading/broker.py). Treating that as equity + # would fabricate a snapshot exactly like the old 1,000,000 + # constant; fall through to persisted state instead. + if account.get("connected") is False: + logger.error( + "EOD broker reports disconnected; ignoring its placeholder " + "account values", + ) + account = {} + equity = account.get("total_equity") + if not self._valid_equity(equity): + market_value = account.get("market_value") + cash_value = account.get("cash") + if self._is_number(cash_value) and self._is_number(market_value): + equity = float(cash_value) + float(market_value) + if self._valid_equity(equity): + cash = account.get("cash") + cash_value = float(cash) if self._is_number(cash) else None + try: + positions = list(broker.get_positions() or []) + except Exception: + positions = [] + if not positions: + positions = self._store_positions(self._tenant_id) + return float(equity), cash_value, positions, ( + f"broker:{type(broker).__name__}" + ) + + state: dict | None = None + state_key = "" + if self._engine_state_key: + try: + candidate = self._store.get_engine_state(self._engine_state_key) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD engine-state read failed: %s", exc) + candidate = None + if isinstance(candidate, dict): + state, state_key = candidate, self._engine_state_key + if state is None: + try: + latest = self._store.get_latest_engine_state(self._tenant_id) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD latest engine-state read failed: %s", exc) + latest = None + if latest is not None: + state_key, state = latest + + if isinstance(state, dict): + equity = state.get("portfolio_value") + if not self._valid_equity(equity): + equity = state.get("total_equity") + if self._valid_equity(equity): + cash_raw = state.get("cash") + cash = float(cash_raw) if self._is_number(cash_raw) else None + positions = [ + p for p in (state.get("positions") or []) + if isinstance(p, dict) + ] + if not positions: + positions = self._store_positions(self._tenant_id) + return float(equity), cash, positions, ( + f"engine_state:{state_key or 'latest'}" + ) + + return None, None, [], "" + + def _store_positions(self, tenant_id: str = "") -> list[dict]: + try: + return list(self._store.get_positions(tenant_id) or []) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD position read failed: %s", exc) + return [] + + @staticmethod + def _is_number(value) -> bool: + return isinstance(value, (int, float)) and math.isfinite(float(value)) + + @classmethod + def _valid_equity(cls, value) -> bool: + return cls._is_number(value) and float(value) > 0 + + @staticmethod + def _position_market_value(position) -> float: + if isinstance(position, dict): + value = position.get("market_value", 0) + else: + value = getattr(position, "market_value", 0) + try: + number = float(value or 0) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return 0.0 + return number if math.isfinite(number) else 0.0 + + def _skip_eod(self, target: str) -> None: + """No trustworthy equity: never invent one (S2).""" + message = ( + f"EOD reconciliation skipped for {target}: no equity source " + "(no broker account and no persisted engine state)" + ) + try: + get_metrics().counter( + "scheduler_eod_skipped_total", + help="EOD reconciliations skipped because equity was unavailable", + ).inc() + except Exception: + pass + # `_publish_alert` throttles the log/event to once per five minutes; + # logging CRITICAL on every 30s tick filled the log with ~1,000 lines + # per affected evening. + self._publish_alert("critical", message, {"date": target}) + + def _run_retention_hook(self) -> None: + """Daily retention after a successful EOD (S10). Failure is non-fatal.""" + if self._retention_policy is None or not self._retention_policy.is_enabled(): + return + try: + result = self._store.run_retention( + policy=self._retention_policy, + archive_dir=self._retention_archive_dir, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Retention job failed: %s", exc, exc_info=True) + self._publish_alert("error", f"retention job failed: {exc}") + return + self._bus.publish("store.retention", { + "tables": { + table: { + "archived": entry.get("archived", 0), + "deleted": entry.get("deleted", 0), + } + for table, entry in (result.get("tables") or {}).items() + }, + "db_size_bytes": result.get("db_size_bytes", 0), + }, source="scheduler") + + def _catch_up_missed_eod(self, include_today: bool = True) -> int: + """Backfill EOD reconciliation for trading days missed while down. + + Compares the newest EOD marker (or P&L snapshot) with the exchange + calendar and reconciles at most ``MAX_EOD_CATCHUP_DAYS`` sessions + (S3). A fresh database has no baseline and therefore nothing to + backfill. ``include_today=False`` is used by the periodic scan: today + belongs to the normal 15:00 EOD window. + """ + now = self._now() + try: + baseline = self._store.get_last_eod_reconciliation() + if not baseline: + last_pnl = self._store.get_last_pnl_timestamp() + baseline = last_pnl[:10] if last_pnl else "" + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("EOD catch-up baseline read failed: %s", exc) + return 0 + if not baseline: + return 0 + try: + baseline_date = date.fromisoformat(baseline[:10]) + except ValueError: + logger.warning("Ignoring unparsable EOD baseline %r", baseline) + return 0 + + end = now.date() + if not include_today or ( + is_trading_day(end) and (now.hour, now.minute) < (EOD_HOUR, EOD_MINUTE) + ): + # Today only counts once the exchange has closed; the periodic + # scan never includes today at all. + end = end - timedelta(days=1) + + scan_start = baseline_date + timedelta(days=1) + earliest = end - timedelta(days=MAX_EOD_CATCHUP_DAYS * 3 + 14) + if scan_start < earliest: + self._publish_alert( + "warning", + f"EOD catch-up bounded to the most recent " + f"{MAX_EOD_CATCHUP_DAYS} trading day(s); baseline is {baseline}", + {"baseline": baseline}, + ) + scan_start = earliest + + missed: list[date] = [] + cursor = scan_start + while cursor <= end: + if is_trading_day(cursor): + missed.append(cursor) + cursor += timedelta(days=1) + missed = missed[-MAX_EOD_CATCHUP_DAYS:] + + reconciled = 0 + for day in missed: + day_str = day.isoformat() + if self._store.has_eod_reconciliation(day_str): + continue + if self._do_eod_reconciliation(day_str, catch_up=True): + reconciled += 1 - def _do_eod_reconciliation(self): - """End-of-day reconciliation: save P&L snapshot, log events.""" - try: - positions = self._store.get_positions() - market_value = sum(p.get('market_value', 0) for p in positions) - - # Get latest account info from store - pnl_history = self._store.get_pnl_history(days=1) - last_equity = pnl_history[-1]['total_equity'] if pnl_history else 1_000_000 - - snapshot = { - "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), - "total_equity": last_equity, - "cash": last_equity - market_value, - "market_value": market_value, - "n_positions": len(positions), - } - self._store.save_pnl_snapshot(snapshot) - - self._bus.publish("eod.reconciliation", { - "positions": len(positions), - "market_value": market_value, - }, source="scheduler") - - logger.info("EOD reconciliation: %d positions, value=%.2f", - len(positions), market_value) - except Exception as e: - logger.error("EOD reconciliation failed: %s", e) + if reconciled: + logger.warning( + "EOD catch-up reconciled %d missed trading day(s)", reconciled, + ) + self._publish_alert( + "warning", + f"EOD catch-up reconciled {reconciled} missed trading day(s)", + {"days": [str(day) for day in missed], "reconciled": reconciled}, + ) + return reconciled diff --git a/core/state_machine.py b/core/state_machine.py index ed1fd98..8c4e1d0 100644 --- a/core/state_machine.py +++ b/core/state_machine.py @@ -149,6 +149,16 @@ def on_exit(self, state: PortfolioState, hook: Callable): """Register a hook to run when exiting a state.""" self._exit_hooks.setdefault(state, []).append(hook) + def set_transition_callback( + self, callback: Callable[[StateTransition], None] | None, + ) -> None: + """Register an observer for successful transitions. + + `AuditLog.log_state_change` existed but no production code ever + called it; the engine and API now register it here. + """ + self._on_transition = callback + def force_state(self, state: PortfolioState, reason: str = "forced"): """Force a state change (bypasses validation). Use for recovery.""" old = self._state @@ -157,6 +167,11 @@ def force_state(self, state: PortfolioState, reason: str = "forced"): record = StateTransition(from_state=old.value, to_state=state.value, reason=reason) self._history.append(record) logger.warning("FORCED state: %s → %s (%s)", old.value, state.value, reason) + if self._on_transition: + try: + self._on_transition(record) + except Exception as e: + logger.error("Transition callback failed: %s", e) def get_history(self, limit: int = 50) -> list[dict]: """Get transition history.""" diff --git a/core/store.py b/core/store.py index ac751bb..5fcdaa8 100644 --- a/core/store.py +++ b/core/store.py @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ """Compatibility shim: moved to quant_core.store.""" from quant_core.store import * # noqa: F401,F403 -from quant_core.store import Store # noqa: F401 +from quant_core.store import EXCHANGE_TZ, Store # noqa: F401 diff --git a/core/topic_matching.py b/core/topic_matching.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000..35e4a47 --- /dev/null +++ b/core/topic_matching.py @@ -0,0 +1,35 @@ +"""Topic pattern matching shared by both event buses. + +The two implementations disagreed: the legacy bus treated `market.*` as the +raw prefix `"market"` (so it matched `market` and `market_data.tick`), while +the async bus required an exact segment and never matched the documented +`order.**`. Subscriptions and history queries therefore returned different +sets for the same pattern. + +Semantics: +- `**` or `*` alone matches every topic +- `prefix.**` matches `prefix` and every descendant +- `prefix.*` matches exactly one additional segment +- anything else exact match +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + + +def topic_matches(topic: str, pattern: str) -> bool: + if pattern in ("**", "*"): + return True + if pattern == topic: + return True + + if pattern.endswith(".**"): + prefix = pattern[:-3] + return topic == prefix or topic.startswith(prefix + ".") + + if pattern.endswith(".*"): + prefix = pattern[:-2] + if not topic.startswith(prefix + "."): + return False + return "." not in topic[len(prefix) + 1:] + + return False diff --git a/daemon/runner.py b/daemon/runner.py index 778868d..0d26ef5 100644 --- a/daemon/runner.py +++ b/daemon/runner.py @@ -6,40 +6,66 @@ - 异常自恢复 - 日终对账 - 日志轮转 + +State handling (issue S18): + - ``last_run_date`` is persisted next to the Store database in + ``daemon_state.json``, so a process restart does not re-pull the same + exchange day. + - Every exchange day after the engine snapshot's ``last_processed_date`` is + replayed (bounded by ``MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS``) so downtime does not leave + silent gaps. + - All scheduling uses the Asia/Shanghai exchange clock, independent of the + host time zone; ``QUANT_DAILY_RUN_HOUR`` overrides the 16:00 run hour. """ from __future__ import annotations +import json import logging +import os +import signal import sys import time import traceback from datetime import datetime, timedelta from pathlib import Path from typing import Any +from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo -import pandas as pd +from quant_platform.core.events import get_event_bus +from quant_platform.core.exchange_calendar import is_trading_day +from quant_platform.core.store import Store from quant_platform.data.pipeline import DataPipeline from quant_platform.data.providers.baostock_provider import BaostockDataProvider -from quant_platform.operations.reconciliation import reconcile - -from risk.safety import SafetyLimits, SafetySystem -from trading.live_engine import LiveEngine +from quant_platform.data.schema import provider_label +from quant_platform.risk.healthcheck import emit_alert, install_alert_handler +from quant_platform.risk.safety import SafetyLimits, SafetySystem +from quant_platform.trading.live_engine import ( + LiveEngine, + normalize_corporate_action_feed, + summarize_corporate_action_events, +) logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) -DAYS_OPEN = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4] # Mon-Fri -RUN_HOUR = 16 # 16:00 daily (market close) +RUN_HOUR = max(0, min(23, int(os.environ.get("QUANT_DAILY_RUN_HOUR", "16")))) MAX_RESTARTS = 3 RESTART_WINDOW_HOURS = 24 +#: Upper bound on replayed exchange days after downtime. +MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS = max(1, int(os.environ.get("QUANT_DAEMON_MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS", "10"))) + +_STATE_FILENAME = "daemon_state.json" class Daemon: """系统守护进程.""" - def __init__(self): + def __init__(self, store: Store | None = None, + strategy_id: str = "live_engine_alpha_v1", + state_path: str | Path | None = None, + run_hour: int | None = None): self.restart_count = 0 - self.last_restart = None + self.last_restart: datetime | None = None self.safety = SafetySystem(SafetyLimits( max_drawdown=0.30, max_daily_loss=0.05, @@ -48,100 +74,390 @@ def __init__(self): min_cash_reserve=10_000, )) self.engine: LiveEngine | None = None - self.last_run_date: str = "" + # Runtime state lives in the shared Store, so a restart (and a + # separate process invocation) continues from the last committed day + # instead of resetting cash to 10M and positions to empty. + self.store = store or Store() + self.strategy_id = strategy_id + # The daemon runs in a container that is usually UTC; 16:00 must be + # 16:00 in Shanghai. + self._tz = ZoneInfo("Asia/Shanghai") + self._run_hour = RUN_HOUR if run_hour is None else int(run_hour) + if state_path is None: + db_path = Path(getattr(self.store, "_db_path", "data/trading.db")) + state_path = db_path.parent / _STATE_FILENAME + self._state_path = Path(state_path) + # The watermark survives restarts; the old in-memory value re-ran the + # same day's data pull after every crash. + self.last_run_date: str = str( + self._load_state().get("last_run_date", "") or "" + ) + # S4: an unattended daemon must have the production alert handler + # wired, so health-check/system failures reach the sink. + try: + install_alert_handler(get_event_bus()) + except Exception: + logger.warning("Could not install the alert handler", exc_info=True) + + # ── Persisted watermark ── + + def _load_state(self) -> dict: + try: + with open(self._state_path, encoding="utf-8") as f: + data = json.load(f) + return data if isinstance(data, dict) else {} + except FileNotFoundError: + return {} + except (OSError, json.JSONDecodeError) as exc: + logger.warning("Daemon state file unreadable (%s); starting empty", exc) + return {} + + def _save_state(self) -> None: + self._state_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + payload = { + "last_run_date": self.last_run_date, + "saved_at": datetime.now(self._tz).isoformat(), + } + tmp = self._state_path.with_name(f"{self._state_path.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}") + try: + with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f: + json.dump(payload, f, indent=2) + f.flush() + os.fsync(f.fileno()) + os.replace(tmp, self._state_path) + except OSError as exc: + logger.critical("ALERT: failed to persist daemon state: %s", exc) + try: + tmp.unlink(missing_ok=True) + except OSError: + pass def should_run_today(self) -> bool: """今天是否应该运行.""" - now = datetime.now() - if now.weekday() not in DAYS_OPEN: + now = datetime.now(self._tz) + if not is_trading_day(now.date()): return False - if now.hour < RUN_HOUR: + if now.hour < self._run_hour: return False today = now.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") return today != self.last_run_date def run_once(self) -> dict[str, Any]: - """执行一次完整日流程.""" - result: dict[str, Any] = {"status": "ok", "alerts": []} + """执行一次完整日流程 (含停机期间的补跑).""" + result: dict[str, Any] = {"status": "ok", "alerts": [], "days_processed": 0} # 1. 加载数据 try: provider = BaostockDataProvider(cache_enabled=True) pipeline = DataPipeline(provider=provider, start_date="2018-01-01", - end_date=datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), + end_date=datetime.now(self._tz).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"), exclude_st=True, exclude_suspended=True) pipeline.run() except Exception as e: + # A daily data failure is an operational alert, not a debug line. + logger.error("ALERT: daily data load failed: %s", e) + emit_alert( + "critical", f"daily data load failed: {e}", source="daemon", + details={"error": type(e).__name__}, + ) result["status"] = "data_failed" result["alerts"].append(f"Data load failed: {e}") return result - # 2. 运行策略 + if pipeline.returns is None or len(pipeline.returns.index) == 0: + logger.error("ALERT: data pipeline returned an empty panel") + emit_alert( + "critical", "data pipeline returned an empty panel", + source="daemon", + ) + result["status"] = "data_failed" + result["alerts"].append("Data pipeline returned an empty panel") + return result + + # 2. 恢复持久化状态并运行策略 self.engine = LiveEngine() - self.engine.load_history(pipeline.returns, pipeline.get_close()) - - last_date = pipeline.returns.index[-1] - self.engine.run_once(last_date) - - # 3. 安全检查 - equity = self.engine.state.current_equity - peak = self.engine.state.equity_peak - cash = self.engine.state.cash - daily_pnl = 0 # simplified - - checks = self.safety.check_all(equity, peak, cash, daily_pnl, {}) - failed = [c for c in checks if not c.passed] - if failed: - result["alerts"].extend(f"{c.name}: {c.message}" for c in failed) - if self.safety.kill_switch_triggered: - result["status"] = "killed" - self.engine._emergency_flat(last_date) - - # 4. 记录 - self.last_run_date = datetime.now().strftime("%Y-%m-%d") - logger.info("Run complete: equity=%.2f alerts=%d", equity, len(result["alerts"])) + # Money marks require the raw (traded CNY) panel; get_close() is the + # adjusted research series and LiveEngine now refuses it (D15). A + # legacy/test pipeline double without get_raw_close() falls back to + # its close panel (the engine warns when the basis is unlabeled). + try: + history_prices = pipeline.get_raw_close() + except AttributeError: + history_prices = pipeline.get_close() + except Exception as e: + logger.error("ALERT: raw price panel unavailable: %s", e) + emit_alert( + "critical", f"raw price panel unavailable: {e}", source="daemon", + details={"error": type(e).__name__}, + ) + result["status"] = "data_failed" + result["alerts"].append(f"Raw price panel unavailable: {e}") + return result + self.engine.load_history(pipeline.returns, history_prices) + + # Corporate actions: the same provider/pipeline that produced the + # price panel supplies the feed. LiveEngine applies it as exchange + # days advance (paper book only; a real broker would refuse the feed). + # An unavailable/empty feed is "no actions", never fabricated, and it + # never aborts the daily run. + ca_source = "" + ca_rows = 0 + try: + loader = getattr(pipeline, "get_corporate_actions", None) + if callable(loader): + ca_source = ( + "pipeline:" + + provider_label(getattr(pipeline, "provider", provider)) + ) + ca_rows = int(self.engine.set_corporate_actions( + normalize_corporate_action_feed(loader()), + ) or 0) + if ca_rows: + logger.info( + "Corporate-action feed loaded: %d row(s) from %s", + ca_rows, ca_source, + ) + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning("Corporate-action feed unavailable: %s", exc) + ca_source = "" + ca_rows = 0 + result["corporate_actions_feed_rows"] = ca_rows + result["corporate_actions_applied"] = summarize_corporate_action_events( + [], source=ca_source, + ) + + previous_equity: float | None = None + try: + snapshot = self.store.get_engine_state(self.strategy_id) + except (ValueError, TypeError, AttributeError) as exc: + # `get_engine_state` decodes JSON itself; a corrupt row raised + # before the guarded restore below and sent the daemon into a + # crash/restart loop instead of reporting state_corrupt. + logger.critical("Persisted engine state is unreadable: %s", exc) + result["status"] = "state_corrupt" + result["alerts"].append(f"Engine state unreadable: {exc}") + return result + if snapshot is not None: + try: + self.engine.restore_snapshot(snapshot) + self.safety.kill_switch_triggered = bool( + snapshot.get("safety", {}).get("kill_switch_triggered", False) + ) + previous_equity = float(snapshot.get("current_equity", 0.0)) + except (ValueError, TypeError, KeyError) as exc: + # Do NOT overwrite an unreadable snapshot: it may be the only + # record of the real book. Fail loudly and let an operator + # inspect it instead of silently starting from cash. + logger.critical( + "Persisted engine state is unreadable; refusing to overwrite it: %s", exc, + ) + result["status"] = "state_corrupt" + result["alerts"].append(f"Engine state unreadable: {exc}") + return result + + if self.engine.state.status == "killed" or self.safety.kill_switch_triggered: + result["status"] = "killed" + return result + + # 3. Replay every exchange day since the persisted watermark. + pending = self._pending_days(pipeline.returns.index, snapshot) + if len(pending) == 0: + # Nothing new since the watermark: a successful no-op invocation. + # Still consume the day so run_forever does not re-pull the data + # every interval when only the engine snapshot knows the date. + logger.info("No unprocessed exchange days since the watermark") + self.last_run_date = datetime.now(self._tz).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + self._save_state() + result["corporate_actions_applied"] = ( + summarize_corporate_action_events( + self.engine.corporate_action_events, source=ca_source, + ) + ) + return result + if len(pending) > MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS: + logger.warning( + "ALERT: %d unprocessed exchange days; catching up the last %d only", + len(pending), MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS, + ) + result["alerts"].append( + f"Catch-up bounded to {MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS} of {len(pending)} pending day(s)" + ) + pending = pending[-MAX_CATCHUP_DAYS:] + + try: + for day in pending: + before = ( + previous_equity + if previous_equity is not None + else self.engine.state.current_equity + ) + self.engine.run_once(day) + result["days_processed"] += 1 + + # 4. 安全检查 (per replayed day) + equity = self.engine.state.current_equity + peak = self.engine.state.equity_peak + cash = self.engine.state.cash + daily_pnl = equity - before if before else 0.0 + previous_equity = equity + + checks = self.safety.check_all(equity, peak, cash, daily_pnl, {}) + failed = [c for c in checks if not c.passed] + if failed: + for check in failed: + logger.error( + "ALERT: safety check failed [%s]: %s", + check.name, check.message, + ) + emit_alert( + "error", + f"safety check failed [{check.name}]: {check.message}", + source="daemon", + ) + result["alerts"].extend( + f"{c.name}: {c.message}" for c in failed + ) + if self.safety.kill_switch_triggered: + result["status"] = "killed" + self.engine._emergency_flat(day) + break + finally: + # 5. 持久化：无论成功、异常还是熔断都要落盘。快照包含 + # last_processed_date，因此重启后不会重复执行同一天。 + snapshot = self.engine.to_snapshot() + snapshot["safety"] = { + "kill_switch_triggered": self.safety.kill_switch_triggered, + } + try: + self.store.save_engine_state(snapshot, self.strategy_id) + except Exception: + logger.critical( + "Failed to persist engine state: %s", traceback.format_exc(), + ) + # Reporting "ok" with a stale snapshot loses a day after the + # next restart (last_processed_date did not advance). + result["status"] = "state_save_failed" + result["alerts"].append("Failed to persist engine state") + + self.last_run_date = datetime.now(self._tz).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + self._save_state() + result["corporate_actions_applied"] = summarize_corporate_action_events( + self.engine.corporate_action_events, source=ca_source, + ) + logger.info( + "Run complete: days=%d equity=%.2f alerts=%d actions=%d", + result["days_processed"], self.engine.state.current_equity, + len(result["alerts"]), + result["corporate_actions_applied"]["count"], + ) return result + def _pending_days(self, index, snapshot: dict | None) -> list: + """Exchange days after the engine's last processed date. + + With no snapshot (first run) only the latest session is processed: + replaying the full 2018+ history on first boot would be a very + expensive surprise. + """ + last_processed = "" + if snapshot is not None: + last_processed = str(snapshot.get("last_processed_date") or "")[:10] + if not last_processed: + return list(index[-1:]) + return [day for day in index if str(day)[:10] > last_processed] + + def close(self) -> None: + """Persist state, flush the WAL and close the store (S16). + + Best-effort and idempotent: called from ``run_forever``'s finally and + from the CLI shutdown path, so a SIGTERM leaves a complete snapshot + and a checkpointed database. + """ + if self.engine is not None: + try: + snapshot = self.engine.to_snapshot() + snapshot["safety"] = { + "kill_switch_triggered": self.safety.kill_switch_triggered, + } + self.store.save_engine_state(snapshot, self.strategy_id) + except Exception: + logger.error( + "Shutdown engine snapshot failed: %s", traceback.format_exc(), + ) + try: + self._save_state() + except Exception: + logger.error("Shutdown daemon state save failed: %s", traceback.format_exc()) + try: + self.store.checkpoint() + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Shutdown WAL checkpoint failed: %s", exc) + try: + self.store.close() + except Exception as exc: + logger.error("Shutdown store close failed: %s", exc) + def run_forever(self, interval_seconds: int = 3600): """持续运行.""" logger.info("Daemon started. Interval: %ds", interval_seconds) - while True: - try: - if self.should_run_today(): - result = self.run_once() - if result["status"] == "killed": - logger.warning("Kill switch triggered. Waiting for manual recovery.") - break - else: - logger.debug("Not time to run yet") - time.sleep(interval_seconds) - except KeyboardInterrupt: - logger.info("Daemon stopped by user") - break - except Exception: - logger.error("Daemon crashed: %s", traceback.format_exc()) - self._handle_crash() + try: + while True: + try: + if self.should_run_today(): + result = self.run_once() + if result["status"] == "killed": + logger.warning("Kill switch triggered. Waiting for manual recovery.") + break + if result["status"] == "ok": + # A successful run resets the crash budget; otherwise + # three crashes spread over months would still exit. + self.restart_count = 0 + else: + logger.debug("Not time to run yet") + time.sleep(interval_seconds) + except KeyboardInterrupt: + logger.info("Daemon stopped by user") + break + except Exception: + logger.error("Daemon crashed: %s", traceback.format_exc()) + self._handle_crash() + finally: + # S16: SIGTERM/SIGINT or a normal exit must not abandon the + # snapshot and the WAL. + self.close() def _handle_crash(self): - """崩溃恢复.""" + """崩溃恢复 (restart budget scoped to RESTART_WINDOW_HOURS).""" + now = datetime.now(self._tz) + if ( + self.last_restart is not None + and now - self.last_restart > timedelta(hours=RESTART_WINDOW_HOURS) + ): + # The old count was never reset by time, so three crashes spread + # over months still terminated the daemon. + self.restart_count = 0 self.restart_count += 1 - self.last_restart = datetime.now() + self.last_restart = now if self.restart_count > MAX_RESTARTS: - logger.critical("Too many restarts. Giving up.") + logger.critical("Too many restarts in %dh. Giving up.", RESTART_WINDOW_HOURS) sys.exit(1) logger.info("Restarting in 60s (attempt %d/%d)", self.restart_count, MAX_RESTARTS) time.sleep(60) if __name__ == "__main__": - logging.basicConfig( - level=logging.INFO, - format="%(asctime)s | %(name)s | %(message)s", - handlers=[ - logging.FileHandler("results/daemon.log", encoding="utf-8"), - logging.StreamHandler(), - ], - ) + from quant_platform.utils.logging import setup_logging + + # S16: docker stop sends SIGTERM. Convert it into KeyboardInterrupt so + # the run loop unwinds and run_forever's finally persists and closes. + def _handle_sigterm(_signum, _frame): + raise KeyboardInterrupt + + signal.signal(signal.SIGTERM, _handle_sigterm) + + # Rotating file handler: an unattended daemon must not grow one log file + # without bound. + setup_logging(log_file="results/daemon.log") daemon = Daemon() daemon.run_forever(interval_seconds=3600) diff --git a/data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md b/data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md index 2bae791..84de5c4 100644 --- a/data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md +++ b/data/ASHARE_PITFALLS.md @@ -10,11 +10,12 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** Stock splits, dividends, and rights issues cause artificial price jumps. Using raw (未复权) prices produces fake returns and corrupts factor calculations. **Our solution:** -- Tushare provider fetches 前复权 (qfq = forward-adjusted) prices via `pro_api.daily()` with explicit adj_factor tracking +- Tushare provider fetches 后复权 (hfq = back-adjusted) prices: raw prices are multiplied by the cumulative `adj_factor` exactly once; the pipeline divisor is set to 1.0 +- Baostock uses `adjustflag="1"` (后复权) with the same "apply once" convention - Synthetic provider generates `adj_factor` column and `close_adj` = close / adj_factor - Pipeline computes all returns from `close_adj`, never from raw close -**Interview answer:** "前复权 adjusts all historical prices as if today's share count existed in the past. This means past returns are correctly calculated. The trade-off is that past prices don't match what actually traded, but for backtesting that's irrelevant — we care about returns, not absolute price levels." +**Interview answer:** "后复权 scales historical prices forward by the cumulative adjustment factor, so past returns are correctly calculated and no dividend/split jump leaks into factors. The trade-off is that price levels don't match the exchange tape, but for backtesting we care about returns, not absolute price levels. All providers apply the adjustment exactly once, and the trust metadata records `adjust=hfq`." --- @@ -23,12 +24,13 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** A-share stocks can halt trading for days/weeks (重大事项停牌). NaN prices break factor computation and portfolio rebalancing. **Our solution:** -- `DataPipeline._clean_prices()`: Forward-fill NaN prices up to `max_suspension_days` (default 30) -- Stocks suspended longer than threshold are excluded from the universe for that period -- At rebalance dates, suspended stocks are excluded from the candidate pool -- Factor computation uses `.dropna()` guards everywhere +- `DataPipeline._clean_prices()` derives suspension from the data itself — missing closes, zero volume, or a row whose whole OHLC(VWAP) equals the previous row (a provider forward-fill) — instead of trusting an optional `is_suspended` column. Tushare/Baostock emit no flag. +- Provider fills short gaps (synthetic ≤30 sessions via `max_suspension_days`, Tushare ≤5); long gaps stay NaN and are never bridged. +- Returns are NaN on the day before suspension through the last suspended day, so no fake zero return and no compounded "resume" move booked as a one-day return. +- Suspended asset-days are False in `tradable_mask`; factors, the alpha signal and optimizer candidate sets exclude them, so a suspended stock cannot receive a new target weight. Valuation keeps the stale mark, which equals the last clean adjusted close (the adjustment factor is frozen across the suspension). +- At rebalance dates, suspended stocks are excluded from the candidate pool; existing holdings are not topped up. -**Interview answer:** "Short suspensions (<5 days) we forward-fill — the stock is illiquid but still part of the portfolio. Long suspensions (>30 days) we remove from investable universe because the price is stale and the fundamental situation likely changed. This is conservative — most real funds would also exclude or cap exposure to recently resumed stocks." +**Interview answer:** "Short suspensions we forward-fill — the stock is illiquid but still part of the portfolio. Across a suspension we never difference a forward-filled price: returns on both fill boundaries are NaN, and the name is excluded from every cross-section and new target weight while it cannot trade. Long suspensions (>30 sessions) keep their history but the gap stays missing; the name has no factor, signal or weight until it trades again." --- @@ -38,11 +40,15 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Our solution:** - `metadata` tracks `listing_date` and `delisting_date` per stock -- `DataPipeline._filter_universe()` excludes stocks not yet listed AND stocks already delisted -- Constituent history tracking (TushareProvider): knows which stocks were in the CSI 300 at each point in time, not just today's constituents +- `DataPipeline` builds a date-wise listing window: no factor, signal or weight exists before `listing_date`, and none exists from `delisting_date` onward. `_filter_universe()` still drops stocks that list after (or delist before) the sample. +- When a provider omits `delisting_date` but simply stops pricing, the first date of the terminal missing run (longer than `max_suspension_days`) is used as the delisting date. +- Frozen-holding behaviour: from the delisting date the name's factors and signal are NaN, so the optimizer cannot open or add to it. A position still marked between rebalances keeps its last value (its return is NaN, which the engine treats as 0 — no fabricated P&L); at the next rebalance the target weight is zero and the holding is liquidated at the last available close. +- Constituent history tracking (TushareProvider): knows which stocks were in the CSI 300 at each point in time (`index_weight`), not just today's constituents; fetches `list_status` D/P (delisted/suspended) names with `delist_date` +- BaostockProvider requests `status=0` (delisted) names and carries `outDate` as `delisting_date`, so a historical sample includes names that later delisted +- Remaining gap: the ST *history* is provider-dependent — Tushare/Baostock expose only the current name/list status, so neither supplies a true ST announcement history; the synthetic provider does. The system marks `st_available=False` rather than fabricating an all-False flag - The universe shrinks naturally as stocks delist, matching reality -**Interview answer:** "Point-in-time universe construction. We don't use today's CSI 300 list — we fetch historical constituent changes and only trade stocks that were actually in the index on each rebalance date. We also handle delisting: on the delist date, the position is liquidated at the last available close price." +**Interview answer:** "Point-in-time universe construction. We don't use today's CSI 300 list — we fetch historical constituent changes and only trade stocks that were actually in the index on each rebalance date. Delisting is enforced date-wise: the stock leaves the factor cross-section, the alpha signal and the optimizer's candidate set on its delisting date. An existing holding is frozen at its last mark until the next rebalance, then liquidated at the last available close — no new weight, no fabricated return." --- @@ -51,12 +57,13 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** A-share stocks have ±10% daily price limits ( ±5% for ST, ±20% for ChiNext/STAR). If your backtest buys a stock at limit-up, you couldn't actually execute in reality. **Our solution:** -- Synthetic price generator clips daily returns to [-0.10, 0.10] +- Synthetic price generator clips daily returns to [-0.10, 0.10]; ST names get ±5% - Pipeline marks `is_limit_up` and `is_limit_down` flags -- Cost model adds extra slippage for limit-hit stocks (effectively: can't trade) -- ST stocks have ±5% limits (handled via narrower return clipping) +- The backtest engine consumes `tradable_mask` / `limit_up` / `limit_down` on the **execution date**: a buy blocked at limit-up (or on a suspended/ST/untradable day) is carried forward to the next tradable day, and no cost or turnover is booked for the blocked trade; sells are blocked at limit-down. This is the execution-day gate wired in Round 10 (was not present in the older vectorized engine) +- The vectorized engine still works at the weight level for lot sizes (see #8), so a blocked trade is retried, not partially filled +- ST stocks have ±5% limits (handled via narrower return clipping and the ST PIT mask) -**Interview answer:** "We flag limit-hit stocks at rebalance. If a stock is at limit-up when we'd want to buy, we skip it and reallocate to the next-best signal. This is conservative but realistic — in practice, you might get partial fills, but modeling that requires order-book data beyond a daily-frequency backtest." +**Interview answer:** "We flag limit-hit stocks and the backtest checks them on the execution date, not the signal date — if a stock closes limit-up when we'd want to buy, the trade is deferred to the next tradable day; sells blocked at limit-down likewise. This is conservative but realistic. Modeling partial fills would require order-book data beyond a daily-frequency backtest." --- @@ -65,11 +72,12 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** ST (Special Treatment) stocks have tighter limits ( ±5%), higher delisting risk, and lower liquidity. Many institutional mandates prohibit holding ST stocks. **Our solution:** -- `metadata.is_st` flag per stock, updated from Tushare's stock_basic endpoint -- `DataPipeline` has `exclude_st=True` default — filters ST stocks from universe +- PIT ST mask built from `announce_date` to `end_date` per episode; ST asset-days are False in `tradable_mask`, so they receive no factor value, signal or target weight +- `DataPipeline` has `exclude_st=True` default; the static `is_st` flag is only a fallback when a provider supplies no ST timeseries +- Providers without ST history (Tushare/Baostock) expose `st_available=False` instead of fabricating an all-False column; the synthetic provider supplies the announcement timeseries - Config toggle: `universe.exclude_st` -**Interview answer:** "We exclude ST stocks by default because: (1) many institutions are prohibited from holding them, (2) the ±5% limit and delisting risk create a different risk profile than our factor model assumes, and (3) liquidity is typically very poor, making execution assumptions break." +**Interview answer:** "We exclude ST stocks using announcement dates, not a whole-sample flag — a stock becomes ineligible only from the date its ST announcement was public through the end of the episode. That matters because the naive version excludes stocks from day one based on an event years later, which is reverse selection and inflates backtests. With real providers that don't publish ST history, we say so explicitly rather than pretend the screen works." --- @@ -103,11 +111,12 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** A-share minimum trading unit is 100 shares (1手). Your portfolio optimizer might produce weights that require buying 37 shares, which is impossible. **Our solution:** -- `PortfolioConstraints.lot_size = 100` -- Optimizer rounds positions to lot-size multiples +- `PortfolioConstraints.lot_size = 100`, plus per-instrument `lot_size` from the cross-asset interface +- The execution layer (TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg algorithms, paper broker, OMS) rounds slice/order quantities down to whole lots +- The vectorized backtest engine is **weight-level** and explicitly documents that lot size is not enforced there; target weights can imply fractional lots - For small portfolios (<10M), this causes noticeable tracking error from target weights -**Interview answer:** "For a 10M portfolio, the lot constraint is binding on stocks priced above ~500 CNY (e.g., Kweichow Moutai). For these, we round DOWN to the nearest lot and reallocate the residual cash. The impact on a well-diversified portfolio is negligible (<5bps)." +**Interview answer:** "Execution rounds down to the nearest 100-share lot and reallocates the residual cash, so live and paper orders are always valid. The daily vectorized backtest is weight-based — we document that it ignores lot granularity rather than claiming a constraint it doesn't enforce. For a 10M portfolio the lot constraint is binding on stocks priced above ~500 CNY (e.g., Kweichow Moutai); the impact on a diversified portfolio is small, but it's a real limitation of the weight-level engine." --- @@ -116,11 +125,11 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** On ex-dividend dates, the stock price mechanically drops by the dividend amount. A naive return calculation would show a large negative return, corrupting factor values on that date. **Our solution:** -- 前复权 (qfq) adjustment bakes dividend adjustments into historical prices +- 后复权 (hfq) adjustment bakes dividend/split adjustments into historical prices (applied exactly once by each provider) - Synthetic provider generates random `adj_factor` changes ( ~5% of stocks per year have corporate actions) - All factor computations use `close_adj`, not `close` -**Interview answer:** "前复权 solves this by scaling ALL past prices by the adjustment factor. If a stock pays a 1 CNY dividend and the price drops from 10 to 9, the qfq factor is 0.9 — all past prices are multiplied by 0.9, so past returns are unaffected. The trade-off is that you lose absolute P&L accuracy, but for relative return analysis this is the standard approach." +**Interview answer:** "后复权 solves this by scaling historical prices by the cumulative adjustment factor. If a stock pays a 1 CNY dividend and the price drops from 10 to 9, the factor changes so past returns are unaffected. The trade-off is that you lose absolute price-level accuracy, but for relative return analysis this is the standard approach." --- @@ -129,14 +138,15 @@ Interviewers WILL ask about these — be ready to explain each one. **Problem:** A stock's industry classification can change (e.g., a company pivots from manufacturing to tech). Using a single static sector map causes incorrect neutralization. **Our solution:** -- For synthetic data: static sector (acceptable for 5-year window) -- For Tushare: sector is fetched from the latest stock_basic -- `process_factor.neutralize()` handles any sector map dynamically per date +- `DataPipeline.get_sector_panel()` builds a date × asset sector panel from the provider's industry-change history (`effective_date`); `main.py` attaches it to metadata and `factors/processing.py` neutralizes date-by-date +- For synthetic data: industry changes are generated with `effective_date` (about 5% per half-year) +- For Tushare/Baostock: if no history is available, the current sector map is used as a documented fallback (stale, not look-ahead) +- `process_factor.neutralize()` accepts either the per-date panel or a static map -**Interview answer:** "For a 3-5 year backtest, sector reclassification is rare (<5% of stocks). We use the latest classification as a practical compromise. For longer horizons, you'd need point-in-time sector data from a vendor like GICS or Shenwan." +**Interview answer:** "We neutralize against the industry classification in effect on each date, not a single static map. Using the classification from before a change is stale but never look-ahead; the per-date panel removes that staleness for providers that publish industry history. When only the current classification is available, we document that limitation in the trust metadata." --- ## Summary: What to say when the interviewer asks "How real is your backtest?" -"非常接近实盘。我们处理了前复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1制度、涨跌停板、手数限制，并且成本模型包含了印花税的单边征收和滑点。唯一没有做的是高频order-book级别的流动性建模，但对于月频多因子策略来说这不是瓶颈。" +"非常接近实盘。我们处理了后复权、停牌、ST过滤、幸存者偏差、T+1制度、涨跌停板、手数限制，并且成本模型包含了印花税的单边征收和滑点。涨跌停/停牌按执行日阻断成交，未成交目标顺延到下一个可交易日；整手约束在执行层强制，向量化回测仍是权重层面（已明确标注）。唯一没有做的是高频order-book级别的流动性建模，但对于月频多因子策略来说这不是瓶颈。" diff --git a/data/cache/first_real_research/prices/sh_600000.csv b/data/cache/first_real_research/prices/sh_600000.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7d2792a --- /dev/null +++ b/data/cache/first_real_research/prices/sh_600000.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1601 @@ +date,close +2019-06-03,106.9890177600 +2019-06-04,107.6529567000 +2019-06-05,108.2220472200 +2019-06-06,108.7911377400 +2019-06-10,110.1190156200 +2019-06-11,111.6837628800 +2019-06-12,113.4441024000 +2019-06-13,114.4220688000 +2019-06-14,115.3022385600 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a/data/pipeline.py b/data/pipeline.py index 6664bf0..a5938c8 100644 --- a/data/pipeline.py +++ b/data/pipeline.py @@ -1,22 +1,118 @@ """Data pipeline for ETL: clean, align, filter, and prepare data. Transforms raw data provider output into analysis-ready DataFrames with: -- Suspension handling (forward-fill, NaN masking) -- Point-in-time ST exclusion (per-date tradability mask, no look-ahead) +- Contract validation of every provider output at the boundary + (`validate_prices`/`validate_financials`/`validate_metadata` in + `data/schema.py`), so provider drift fails with an actionable error that + names the provider and the violated column/index instead of a downstream + ``KeyError``. +- Suspension handling (forward-fill, NaN masking, derived from the data) +- Point-in-time asset-day eligibility mask (ST episodes, listing window, + mid-sample delisting, suspension, and -- when the provider has real + date-stamped history -- index membership), no look-ahead - Date alignment across prices, financials, and benchmark - Derived fields (daily returns, adjusted prices) + +Data policies fixed in this module (regression-tested): + +* **Duplicate ``(date, asset)`` rows** are deduplicated deterministically + with ``keep="last"`` *before* any ``unstack``. A warning reports the + count and a sample of the offending keys; the counts are exposed as + ``duplicate_rows_dropped``. Previously a provider overlap aborted the run + with a raw ``ValueError: Index contains duplicate entries``. +* **``adj_factor``** must be finite and > 0 wherever the close is present. + Invalid/missing factors are forward-filled per asset from the last valid + factor with a warning and a count (``adj_factor_repairs``); a factor that + cannot be repaired (no earlier valid value for that asset) raises + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError`. ``close_adj`` is + therefore never ``inf``/``NaN`` because of a zero factor. +* **Unknown listing dates** (``NaT``) are kept in the universe with a + warning and a count, not silently dropped by a ``NaT <= Timestamp`` + comparison. A *missing* ``listing_date`` column is a contract error + naming the provider. +* **Delisting inference** from a terminal price gap uses + ``delisting_gap_days`` (separate from ``max_suspension_days``, default 60 + sessions) and logs every inferred date; an end-of-sample suspension shorter + than that threshold is not reclassified as a delisting. Provider-stated + ``delisting_date`` metadata always wins. +* **Suspension detection** treats an unchanged close with no volume/OHLC + evidence of a trade as stale (close-only forward-fill detection), instead + of booking a fake zero return. +* **Symbol normalization** happens once, at the provider boundary: every + ``asset`` label in prices, financials and metadata is rewritten through + :func:`quant_platform.core.instrument.normalize_symbol` to the canonical + ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` form (``sz300001`` -> ``300001.SZ``, ``sh.688001`` -> + ``688001.SH``, ``920001`` -> ``920001.BJ``). Board price-limit rules then + use the shared helper (ChiNext/STAR 20%, Beijing 30%). +* **Price basis is explicit** (D15/D18/D41). Every panel the pipeline hands + out carries ``attrs["price_basis"]`` in ``{"raw", "qfq", "hfq"}`` and + ``attrs["adjustment_factor_available"]``. ``get_close()`` is a deprecated + alias of ``get_adjusted_close()`` whose panel is the return-generating + (adjusted) series used by research. ``get_raw_close()`` is the *traded* + CNY panel that every paper/live fill and mark must use; it raises + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError` when the provider only + shipped adjusted levels instead of silently returning them. Research + returns/IC math is unchanged: for Tushare/Baostock the adjusted series + reproduces the previous hfq levels exactly, and synthetic's adjusted series + is its generated continuous path. """ from __future__ import annotations +import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + DataProvider, + empty_corporate_actions, + expected_data_end, + normalize_corporate_actions, + panel_last_date, + sessions_after, +) +from quant_platform.data.schema import ( + DataContractError, + DataQualityError, + provider_label, + validate_financials, + validate_metadata, + validate_prices, +) +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import ( + normalize_symbol, + price_limit_threshold, +) from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Price-basis contract +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +#: Bases a price panel may declare. +PRICE_BASES = ("raw", "qfq", "hfq") + +#: Provider declarations that mean "close is the traded (raw) price and +#: ``adj_factor`` is the divisor". ``synthetic_adj_factor`` is the legacy +#: label the synthetic provider used before the explicit basis contract. +_RAW_DECLARATIONS = frozenset({"raw", "synthetic_adj_factor", "none"}) + + +def realized_returns(returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Shift a forward-return panel into its realized (trailing) view. + + ``DataPipeline.returns[t]`` spans t -> t+1; at the close of t that return + has not happened yet. ``shift(1)[t] = returns[t-1]`` is the return + realized from the close of t-1 to the close of t — the only return a + signal or risk statistic computed at t may use. Live-sim consumers + (reversal paper trader, regime router/adapter) must use this instead of + the raw forward panel; doing otherwise is a one-day look-ahead. + """ + return returns.shift(1) + + class DataPipeline: """Transforms raw provider data into clean, aligned datasets.""" @@ -28,6 +124,8 @@ def __init__( exclude_st: bool = True, exclude_suspended: bool = True, max_suspension_days: int = 30, + benchmark_is_trailing: bool | None = None, + delisting_gap_days: int | None = None, ): self.provider = provider self.start_date = pd.Timestamp(start_date) @@ -36,6 +134,23 @@ def __init__( self.exclude_suspended = exclude_suspended self.max_suspension_days = max_suspension_days + # Terminal missing runs longer than this are inferred as delistings + # when the provider supplies no ``delisting_date``. Deliberately + # separate from (and larger than) ``max_suspension_days``: a stock + # suspended through the end of the sample must not be reclassified as + # delisted. Defaults to 60 trading sessions (~3 months), scaled up + # for callers that raised the suspension limit. + if delisting_gap_days is None: + delisting_gap_days = max(60, 2 * max_suspension_days) + if delisting_gap_days <= max_suspension_days: + raise ValueError( + "delisting_gap_days must be larger than max_suspension_days " + f"(got {delisting_gap_days} <= {max_suspension_days}); the " + "two thresholds exist to distinguish a long suspension from " + "a delisting" + ) + self.delisting_gap_days = int(delisting_gap_days) + # Processed data self.prices: pd.DataFrame | None = None self.financials: pd.DataFrame | None = None @@ -57,16 +172,148 @@ def __init__( # when `exclude_st` is set. self.st_eligible: pd.DataFrame | None = None + # Full asset-day eligibility (date x asset, True = may receive a new + # signal/weight on that date): ST, listing window (no pre-listing, no + # post-delisting) and suspension days all excluded. Unlike + # `st_eligible` this is always populated; it is the single mask the + # factor stage, the volume/turnover accessors and `get_factor_prices` + # use. Suspension rows stay priced (stale mark) in `self.prices` so + # valuation is unaffected -- the mask is what keeps them out of + # cross-sections and new weights. + self.tradable_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + # Hard exclusions only (ST/listing/delisting, not suspension), used by + # the volume/turnover/market-cap accessors so a suspension does not + # punch a hole in the rolling history (factor output is still blanked + # on suspended days by `tradable_mask`). + self._hard_eligible: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + # Index-membership PIT provenance (R6a, semantics split in R6b). + # Filled by `_apply_pit_tradability_mask` on every run: whether a + # provider's per-date constituent mask was applied as the separate + # `universe_mask`, from where, and why not when it was refused. + # `main._load_data` copies this dict into + # `metadata.attrs["universe_pit"]`. + self.universe_pit: dict = { + "applied": False, + "source": None, + "reason": "pipeline_not_run", + } + + # (date x asset) index-membership mask, split out of `tradable_mask` + # in R6b. False where the asset is not an index constituent on that + # date; the backtest buy gate is `tradable_mask & universe_mask` + # while sells check `tradable_mask` only, so an index exit blocks new + # positions but never traps an existing one. Always a boolean + # date x asset panel: all True when no trustworthy per-date + # constituent history was applied (see `universe_pit`). Columns are + # limited to the assets that survive the ever-eligible filter. + self.universe_mask: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + # (date x asset) suspension flags derived inside `_clean_prices` from + # the data itself (missing/stale/zero-volume rows), not merely from an + # optional provider column. + self._suspended: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + # Per-asset delisting dates: provider metadata where stated, plus + # price disappearance for providers that simply stop pricing without + # a delisting_date. `_inferred_delistings` records only the latter + # (asset -> inferred first missing date) for auditing/reporting. + self._delisting_dates: pd.Series | None = None + self._inferred_delistings: dict = {} + + # Data-quality counters, reset per run(). `duplicate_rows_dropped` + # counts deduplicated (date, asset) rows per dataset (keep="last"); + # `adj_factor_repairs` counts invalid factors repaired by a per-asset + # forward-fill; `unknown_listing_assets` counts names kept with a + # NaT listing_date. + self.duplicate_rows_dropped: dict[str, int] = {} + self.adj_factor_repairs: int = 0 + self.unknown_listing_assets: int = 0 + + # True when `financials` carries a publish_date column, i.e. the + # panel supports point-in-time queries via get_financials_as_of(). + self.financials_pit_available: bool = False + + # Price-basis contract (D15/D18/D41), resolved from the provider + # declaration on every run(): + # price_basis -- basis of `prices["close"]` + # adjusted_price_basis -- basis of `prices["close_adj"]` + # adjustment_factor_available -- True when `adj_factor` is a real + # corporate-action divisor rather than + # a placeholder 1.0 + self.price_basis: str = "unknown" + self.adjusted_price_basis: str = "unknown" + self.adjustment_factor_available: bool = False + # Point-in-time data (populated during run if provider supports it) self._st_timeseries: pd.DataFrame | None = None self._industry_changes: pd.DataFrame | None = None + # Benchmark convention. Provider benchmarks are trailing returns + # (r_t = P_t / P_{t-1} - 1) while `self.returns` is forward + # (r_t = P_{t+1} / P_t - 1). `_align` shifts provider benchmarks by + # one day when this flag is True. A benchmark that is already in + # forward convention -- e.g. the backtest engine's internal + # equal-weight benchmark, which averages `returns` date by date -- + # must not be shifted again: pass `benchmark_is_trailing=False` or + # set the provider attribute with the same name. + self.benchmark_is_trailing: bool = True + self._benchmark_is_trailing_override: bool | None = benchmark_is_trailing + + # Cached (date x asset) point-in-time sector panel. + self._sector_panel: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + # Completion-marker/freshness record of the loaded panel (D32), + # populated by run()/get_data_freshness(). ``data_age_days`` is + # measured in exchange sessions, not calendar days. + self.data_freshness: dict = {} + + # Corporate-action feed (paper-engine input). ``get_corporate_actions`` + # is lazy: the provider is queried on first use and the result is + # aligned to this run's date window and asset sample. The flag mirrors + # the provider's own declaration; a provider with no feed returns the + # documented empty frame. + self.corporate_actions_available: bool = bool( + getattr(provider, "corporate_actions_available", False) + ) + self._corporate_actions: pd.DataFrame | None = None + def run(self) -> None: - """Execute the full ETL pipeline.""" + """Execute the full ETL pipeline. + + Every provider output is contract-validated at the boundary + (`data/schema.py`): a wrong index, missing column or empty metadata + raises a :class:`DataContractError` that names the provider and the + violated field instead of failing later inside an ``unstack`` or a + factor. + """ logger.info("Running data pipeline: %s to %s", self.start_date.date(), self.end_date.date()) + # Per-run caches/counters; a second run() must not serve the first + # one's panel or stale quality counts. + self._sector_panel = None + self.duplicate_rows_dropped = {} + self.adj_factor_repairs = 0 + self.unknown_listing_assets = 0 + self._inferred_delistings = {} + self.financials_pit_available = False + self.price_basis = "unknown" + self.adjusted_price_basis = "unknown" + self.adjustment_factor_available = False + self._corporate_actions = None + self.corporate_actions_available = bool( + getattr(self.provider, "corporate_actions_available", False) + ) + self.metadata = self.provider.get_metadata() + validate_metadata(self.metadata, provider=self.provider) + # One symbol form for the whole platform: canonical CODE.EXCHANGE. + # Providers adapt to/from their native form internally; the pipeline + # boundary is where every consumer (factors, trading, OMS) can rely + # on a single identity. + self.metadata = self._normalize_metadata_assets(self.metadata) # Ensure date columns are datetime (Baostock returns strings) for col in ["listing_date", "delisting_date"]: if col in self.metadata.columns: @@ -79,29 +326,335 @@ def run(self) -> None: self._filter_universe() - self.prices = self.provider.get_prices( + prices = self.provider.get_prices( str(self.start_date.date()), str(self.end_date.date()) ) - self.financials = self.provider.get_financials( + validate_prices(prices, provider=self.provider) + # Resolve the basis from the provider frame *before* normalization / + # deduplication (which may drop the frame attrs). + ( + self.price_basis, + self.adjusted_price_basis, + self.adjustment_factor_available, + ) = self._resolve_price_basis(prices) + prices = self._normalize_panel_assets(prices, "prices") + # Duplicate (date, asset) rows are a provider overlap, not a reason to + # abort the run with pandas' opaque unstack error. keep="last" is the + # documented policy: the later observation supersedes the earlier one. + self.prices = self._deduplicate_rows(prices, "prices") + + financials = self.provider.get_financials( str(self.start_date.date()), str(self.end_date.date()) ) + validate_financials(financials, provider=self.provider) + financials = self._normalize_panel_assets(financials, "financials") + self.financials = self._deduplicate_rows(financials, "financials") + self.financials_pit_available = bool( + self.financials is not None + and not self.financials.empty + and "publish_date" in self.financials.columns + ) + self.benchmark = self.provider.get_benchmark( str(self.start_date.date()), str(self.end_date.date()) ) + # External providers return trailing (t-day) benchmark returns; the + # engine's internal equal-weight benchmark is built from `returns` + # (already forward) and never passes through here. An explicit + # constructor argument wins; otherwise the provider may declare its + # convention, defaulting to trailing. + if self._benchmark_is_trailing_override is not None: + self.benchmark_is_trailing = self._benchmark_is_trailing_override + else: + self.benchmark_is_trailing = bool( + getattr(self.provider, "benchmark_is_trailing", True) + ) self._clean_prices() self._apply_pit_tradability_mask() self._compute_returns() self._align() + self.prices.attrs.update(self.price_basis_info()) + self.data_freshness = self.get_data_freshness() logger.info("Pipeline complete: %d assets, %d dates", len(self.valid_assets) if self.valid_assets is not None else 0, len(self.prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique())) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Price-basis contract + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def price_basis_info(self) -> dict: + """Basis metadata attached to every panel this pipeline hands out.""" + return { + "price_basis": self.price_basis, + "adjusted_price_basis": self.adjusted_price_basis, + "adjustment_factor_available": bool( + self.adjustment_factor_available + ), + } + + def get_data_freshness(self) -> dict: + """Completion marker and exchange-session age of the loaded panel. + + ``last_complete_date`` comes from the provider's cache manifest (D32); + it is deliberately *not* the last row of the panel -- a partial last + day must never be advertised as complete. ``data_age_days`` counts + exchange sessions between that marker and the last session a panel + could be expected to contain now (``min(requested_end, today)``), so a + historical backtest is not reported stale just because wall-clock time + moved on. Providers without a marker fall back to the panel's last + date. + + The staleness *threshold* belongs to configuration + (``data.max_staleness_days``); this method exposes the measurement so + CLI/API callers can warn (research) or fail closed (live/decisive). + """ + provider_status: dict = {} + hook = getattr(self.provider, "data_status", None) + if callable(hook): + try: + value = hook() + if isinstance(value, dict): + provider_status = value + except Exception as exc: # freshness must not kill a run + logger.warning("Provider data_status() failed: %s", exc) + + panel_date = panel_last_date(self.prices) + marker = provider_status.get("last_complete_date") or panel_date + requested_end = provider_status.get("requested_end") or str( + self.end_date.date() + ) + age: int | None = None + if marker is not None: + try: + age = sessions_after(marker, expected_data_end(requested_end)) + except (TypeError, ValueError) as exc: + logger.warning("Could not compute data age: %s", exc) + return { + "last_complete_date": ( + pd.Timestamp(marker).date().isoformat() + if marker is not None and pd.notna(marker) else None + ), + "data_date": ( + pd.Timestamp(panel_date).date().isoformat() + if panel_date is not None and pd.notna(panel_date) else None + ), + "requested_end": str(requested_end), + "data_age_days": age, + "incomplete": bool(provider_status.get("incomplete", False)), + "updated_at": provider_status.get("updated_at"), + "source": provider_status.get("source", "panel"), + } + + @staticmethod + def _normalize_metadata_assets(meta: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Rewrite the metadata index to canonical ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` form. + + A provider that lists the same instrument under two labels + (``600519`` and ``600519.SH``) collides after normalization; the + later row wins, matching the panel deduplication policy, and the + collision is logged. + """ + if meta is None or meta.empty or meta.index.name != "asset": + return meta + mapped = pd.Index( + [normalize_symbol(asset) for asset in meta.index], name="asset", + ) + if not mapped.equals(meta.index): + meta = meta.set_axis(mapped, axis=0) + duplicated = meta.index.duplicated(keep="last") + count = int(duplicated.sum()) + if count: + sample = list(meta.index[duplicated][:5]) + logger.warning( + "metadata: dropped %d duplicate asset label(s) created by " + "symbol normalization (keep='last'): %s", + count, sample, + ) + meta = meta[~duplicated] + return meta + + @staticmethod + def _normalize_panel_assets( + df: pd.DataFrame | None, dataset: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Rewrite a ``(date, asset)`` panel's asset level to canonical form. + + Collisions (a provider that returned both ``600519`` and + ``600519.SH`` for the same date) become duplicate index entries and + are resolved by the documented ``keep="last"`` deduplication that runs + immediately after this normalization. + """ + if df is None or df.empty: + return df + if not isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return df + if list(df.index.names) != ["date", "asset"]: + return df + assets = df.index.get_level_values("asset") + normalized = [normalize_symbol(asset) for asset in assets] + if list(assets) == normalized: + return df + dates = df.index.get_level_values("date") + renamed = df.copy() + renamed.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays( + [dates, normalized], names=["date", "asset"], + ) + # ``copy()`` keeps attrs; a provider frame's basis declaration must + # survive so downstream provenance still sees it. + renamed.attrs.update(getattr(df, "attrs", {}) or {}) + changed = sum(1 for old, new in zip(assets, normalized, strict=False) if old != new) + if changed: + logger.info( + "%s: normalized %d asset label(s) to CODE.EXCHANGE form", + dataset, changed, + ) + return renamed + + def _provider_basis_attr(self, attribute: str): + """Read a basis attribute through provider wrappers. + + ``ValidatedProvider`` fuses several sources and does not redeclare the + price basis; its panel is the *primary* provider's panel, so the + declaration must be read from there. The abstract default + ``"provider-defined"`` is treated as "not declared". + """ + provider = self.provider + seen: set[int] = set() + while provider is not None and id(provider) not in seen: + seen.add(id(provider)) + value = getattr(provider, attribute, None) + if value is not None and value != "provider-defined": + return value + providers = getattr(provider, "providers", None) + if not isinstance(providers, dict) or not providers: + break + primary = providers.get(getattr(provider, "primary", None)) + provider = primary if primary is not None else next( + iter(providers.values()) + ) + return None + + def _resolve_price_basis( + self, prices: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> tuple[str, str, bool]: + """Resolve explicit raw/adjusted price semantics for this run. + + The provider declaration (frame ``attrs`` first, then the + ``price_adjustment`` instance attribute) is authoritative. Long-lived + legacy declarations ``synthetic_adj_factor``/``none`` mean the shared + divisor contract (raw close + ``adj_factor`` divisor). A provider + that declares an already-adjusted close (``qfq``/``hfq``) while also + shipping a non-constant ``adj_factor`` would be double-adjusted by + ``close / adj_factor``; that is a hard contract error, not a silent + 50% return error (D20 risk). + + A provider with no declaration but a non-constant factor is treated + as the shared divisor contract (raw close). With no declaration and + a placeholder factor, the basis stays ``"unknown"``: research + accessors still work, but ``get_raw_close()`` and the live/paper + engines refuse to treat it as a CNY price. + """ + attrs = getattr(prices, "attrs", {}) or {} + declared = attrs.get("price_basis") + if declared is None: + declared = self._provider_basis_attr("price_adjustment") + text = str(declared or "").strip().lower() + if text in _RAW_DECLARATIONS: + basis = "raw" + elif text in {"qfq", "hfq"}: + basis = text + else: + basis = "unknown" + + factor_varies = False + factor_valid = False + if "adj_factor" in prices.columns and len(prices): + factor = pd.to_numeric(prices["adj_factor"], errors="coerce") + finite = np.isfinite(factor.to_numpy(dtype=float)) + factor_valid = bool(finite.any()) + values = factor.to_numpy(dtype=float)[finite] + factor_varies = bool( + values.size and (np.abs(values - 1.0) > 1e-12).any() + ) + + available = attrs.get("adjustment_factor_available") + if available is None: + available = self._provider_basis_attr("adjustment_factor_available") + if available is None: + available = bool(factor_varies and factor_valid) + + if basis in {"qfq", "hfq"} and factor_varies: + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: close is declared " + f"{basis!r} but adj_factor is non-constant. The pipeline " + "divides close by adj_factor, so this panel would be " + "double-adjusted. Providers must ship raw close plus a " + "divisor, or an already-adjusted close with adj_factor=1." + ) + if basis == "unknown" and factor_varies: + # The only unambiguous reading of a non-constant factor is the + # shared divisor contract: close is the traded price. + basis = "raw" + available = True + + adjusted = attrs.get("adjusted_price_basis") + if adjusted is None: + adjusted = self._provider_basis_attr("adjusted_price_basis") + if adjusted not in PRICE_BASES: + if basis in {"qfq", "hfq"}: + adjusted = basis + elif basis == "raw": + # The shared divisor contract (raw / divisor) is the same + # back-adjustment Tushare/Baostock produce; providers with a + # front-adjusted path (synthetic) declare it explicitly. + adjusted = "hfq" if available else "raw" + else: + adjusted = "unknown" + + return basis, str(adjusted), bool(available) + + def _tag_price_panel(self, panel: pd.DataFrame, basis: str) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Attach the explicit basis contract to a returned price panel.""" + panel.attrs["price_basis"] = basis + panel.attrs["adjusted_price_basis"] = self.adjusted_price_basis + panel.attrs["adjustment_factor_available"] = bool( + self.adjustment_factor_available + ) + return panel + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Universe filtering # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + def _deduplicate_rows( + self, df: pd.DataFrame | None, dataset: str + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Drop duplicate ``(date, asset)`` rows with the documented policy. + + ``keep="last"`` wins: when a provider returns the same key twice, the + later row supersedes the earlier one (the common append/overlap bug). + The count and a sample of keys are logged at WARNING and exposed via + ``self.duplicate_rows_dropped[dataset]``; the pipeline never lets a + raw pandas "Index contains duplicate entries" escape from ``unstack``. + """ + if df is None or df.empty: + return df + duplicated = df.index.duplicated(keep="last") + count = int(duplicated.sum()) + self.duplicate_rows_dropped[dataset] = count + if not count: + return df + sample = list(df.index[duplicated][:5]) + logger.warning( + "%s: dropped %d duplicate (date, asset) rows (keep='last', " + "count reset per run): %s", + dataset, count, sample, + ) + return df[~duplicated] + def _filter_universe(self) -> None: """Filter investable universe to the static (non-time-varying) rules. @@ -120,16 +673,52 @@ def _filter_universe(self) -> None: # without an ST timeseries can be excluded at the sample level only; # that is what the metadata flag means in that case, and *not* # applying it would leave ST names in the universe for every date. - if self.exclude_st and not self._has_usable_st_timeseries() and "is_st" in meta.columns: + # The flag may be absent or empty (nullable SQL columns): absence + # must not be read as "not ST", so say so loudly instead of silently + # disabling the screen. + if self.exclude_st and not self._has_usable_st_timeseries(): + if "is_st" in meta.columns: + static_st = meta["is_st"] + if static_st.notna().any(): + logger.warning( + "Provider has no usable ST timeseries — falling back " + "to the static is_st flag (excludes the whole history " + "of every ever-ST stock)" + ) + meta = meta[~static_st.fillna(False).astype(bool)] + else: + logger.warning( + "Provider supplied an is_st column with no values and " + "no ST timeseries — ST screening is unavailable for " + "this run (missing flags are NOT treated as False)" + ) + else: + logger.warning( + "Provider supplied neither an ST timeseries nor an is_st " + "column — ST screening is unavailable for this run " + "(absence is NOT treated as False)" + ) + + # Filter stocks not yet listed. `NaT <= Timestamp` is False, so a + # raw comparison silently dropped every asset with an unknown listing + # date; keep them with a warning and a count instead — the listing + # window simply starts at the sample beginning for those names. + if "listing_date" not in meta.columns: + raise DataContractError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: metadata is missing " + "'listing_date'; cannot build the listing window" + ) + listing = pd.to_datetime(meta["listing_date"], errors="coerce") + unknown_listing = listing.isna() + self.unknown_listing_assets = int(unknown_listing.sum()) + if self.unknown_listing_assets: logger.warning( - "Provider has no usable ST timeseries — falling back to the " - "static is_st flag (excludes the whole history of every " - "ever-ST stock)" + "Kept %d asset(s) with unknown (NaT) listing_date; their " + "listing window starts at the sample beginning: %s", + self.unknown_listing_assets, + list(meta.index[unknown_listing][:10]), ) - meta = meta[~meta["is_st"]] - - # Filter stocks not yet listed - meta = meta[meta["listing_date"] <= self.end_date] + meta = meta[unknown_listing | (listing <= self.end_date)] meta = meta[ meta["delisting_date"].isna() | (meta["delisting_date"] >= self.start_date) @@ -206,28 +795,238 @@ def _build_st_eligibility_mask(self) -> pd.DataFrame: return mask - def _apply_pit_tradability_mask(self) -> None: - """Blank prices and returns for assets while they are ST. + def _build_listing_window_mask(self, dates, assets) -> pd.DataFrame: + """True where an asset is inside its listed window on a date. + + Pre-listing and post-delisting asset-days are not tradable and must + not enter any cross-section. ``delisting_date`` comes from provider + metadata; when the metadata is silent but the provider simply stops + pricing, ``_delisting_dates`` carries the first missing date of the + terminal gap (see `_derive_delisting_dates`). + """ + mask = pd.DataFrame(True, index=dates, columns=assets) + meta = self.metadata.reindex(assets) + + listing = ( + pd.to_datetime(meta["listing_date"], errors="coerce") + if "listing_date" in meta.columns + else pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=assets, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + ) + delisting = pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=assets, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + if self._delisting_dates is not None: + delisting = pd.to_datetime( + self._delisting_dates.reindex(assets), errors="coerce" + ) + + for asset in assets: + listed_at = listing.get(asset) + if pd.notna(listed_at): + mask.loc[dates < listed_at, asset] = False + delisted_at = delisting.get(asset) + if pd.notna(delisted_at): + mask.loc[dates >= delisted_at, asset] = False + return mask + + def _derive_delisting_dates(self, close: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series: + """Delisting dates from metadata, falling back to price disappearance. + + The stated ``delisting_date`` is authoritative; inference never + overrides it. When a provider omits the date but stops producing + prices for good (the common shape of a real delisting), the first + date of the trailing missing run is used — but only when that run is + longer than ``delisting_gap_days`` (default 60 sessions), a threshold + deliberately separate from and larger than ``max_suspension_days``. + A stock suspended through the end of the sample is therefore not + silently reclassified as delisted, and every inferred date is logged + at WARNING. + """ + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(close.index).sort_values() + result = pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=close.columns, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + + if self.metadata is not None and "delisting_date" in self.metadata.columns: + stated = pd.to_datetime( + self.metadata["delisting_date"].reindex(close.columns), + errors="coerce", + ) + result.loc[stated.notna()] = stated[stated.notna()] + + if len(dates) == 0: + return result + + inferred: dict = {} + for asset in close.columns: + if pd.notna(result.loc[asset]): + continue + observed = close[asset].dropna() + if observed.empty: + continue + last_seen = observed.index[-1] + if last_seen >= dates[-1]: + continue + trailing_missing = dates[dates > last_seen] + if len(trailing_missing) > self.delisting_gap_days: + result.loc[asset] = trailing_missing[0] + inferred[asset] = trailing_missing[0] + + if inferred: + logger.warning( + "Inferred delisting for %d asset(s) from terminal price gaps " + "longer than %d sessions (provider supplied no delisting_date): %s", + len(inferred), + self.delisting_gap_days, + {a: str(d.date()) for a, d in list(inferred.items())[:10]}, + ) + self._inferred_delistings = inferred + return result + + def _derive_suspensions(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Derive (date x asset) suspension flags from the price data itself. + + Real providers do not all ship ``is_suspended``: Tushare and Baostock + forward-fill short gaps and emit nothing. Trusting the optional column + left those rows in the return panel, where a forward-filled close + produced a run of fake zero returns followed by a multi-day "resume" + move. A row is treated as suspended when any of the following holds + inside the asset's listed window: + + * the close is missing (dropped rows / provider NaN); + * volume is zero; + * the close equals the previous close and no intraday evidence + contradicts a fill (OHLC/VWAP unchanged or missing, volume + unchanged or missing) — this covers both a provider that + forward-fills the whole row and one that fills only ``close``; + * the provider explicitly flags it. + + Leading NaNs (pre-listing) and trailing NaNs (delisting) are excluded + by the listed window, so they are not mislabelled as suspensions. + """ + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + df.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + assets = pd.Index( + df.index.get_level_values("asset").unique(), name="asset" + ) + close = df["close"].unstack("asset").reindex(index=dates, columns=assets) + + suspended = close.isna() + + # A row is stale when the close is unchanged from the previous row + # and nothing contradicts a forward-fill: every present OHLC(VWAP) + # value equals the previous row's, and volume is unchanged (or + # missing). Any *changed* intraday value or volume proves a real + # trade and keeps the row live. + # + # The old rule required every OHLC(VWAP) panel to be identical to the + # previous row, so a provider that forward-fills only `close` (leaving + # OHLC NaN) slipped through and booked a fake zero return followed by + # a compounded resume jump. + stale = close.eq(close.shift(1)) & close.notna() + for col in ("open", "high", "low", "vwap"): + if col in df.columns: + panel = df[col].unstack("asset").reindex( + index=dates, columns=assets + ) + previous = panel.shift(1) + changed = panel.notna() & previous.notna() & panel.ne(previous) + stale &= ~changed + + if "volume" in df.columns: + volume = df["volume"].unstack("asset").reindex( + index=dates, columns=assets + ) + previous_volume = volume.shift(1) + volume_changed = ( + volume.notna() + & previous_volume.notna() + & volume.ne(previous_volume) + ) + stale &= ~volume_changed + suspended |= stale + + if "volume" in df.columns: + volume = df["volume"].unstack("asset").reindex( + index=dates, columns=assets + ) + suspended |= volume.eq(0) & close.notna() + + if "is_suspended" in df.columns: + flag = ( + df["is_suspended"] + .unstack("asset") + .reindex(index=dates, columns=assets) + .fillna(False) + .astype(bool) + ) + suspended |= flag - Ineligible asset-days become NaN — the same representation the - pipeline already uses for suspensions, so every downstream consumer - (factors, alpha, optimizer, backtest) treats them as untradable - without needing to know the mask exists. + window = self._build_listing_window_mask(dates, assets) + suspended &= window + return suspended.fillna(False) - Note this is deliberately *not* plumbed into the backtest as a - separate input: the backtest reads `self.returns` and `self.prices`, - and blanking them here is what makes the mask effective. A consumer - that needs the mask itself (e.g. for reporting) can read - `self.st_eligible`. + def _apply_pit_tradability_mask(self) -> None: + """Blank prices outside the listed window and build the eligibility mask. + + Two different guarantees are needed: + + * **Hard exclusions** (ST while excluded, pre-listing, post-delisting) + are blanked in ``self.prices`` itself. Every downstream consumer + (factors, alpha, optimizer, backtest) already treats a NaN price as + untradable, so blanking is what makes the exclusion effective + without plumbing a new input through every layer. + * **Suspension** keeps its stale price in ``self.prices`` (valuation + must show the last clean mark), but is False in ``tradable_mask`` + and therefore in the ``excluded_mask`` attached by + `get_factor_prices`, so factors, signals and new target weights + never see a suspended asset-day. + + ``st_eligible`` keeps its original meaning (ST episodes only) for + reporting; ``tradable_mask`` is the combined ST/listing/delisting/ + suspension mask. Index membership is *not* folded into it (R6b): + the provider's per-date constituent mask is built as the separate + ``universe_mask`` so the backtest can gate buys on membership while + still allowing an index exit to be sold (see + `_apply_universe_membership`). ``get_factor_prices`` merges that + ``universe_mask`` into its research ``excluded_mask`` (R6c), so the + factor stage sees membership even though ``tradable_mask`` does not. + + Delisted names: factors and signals are NaN from the delisting date, + so the optimizer cannot open a new position. A position still marked + at the next rebalance has a target weight of zero (it is dropped from + the signal cross-section) and is liquidated at that rebalance; between + rebalances its return is NaN, which the engine's reindex/fillna(0) + treats as a frozen mark — documented frozen-holding behaviour rather + than a fabricated return. """ prices = self.prices if prices is None: return - if not self.exclude_st: - return - mask = self._build_st_eligibility_mask() - flat = mask.stack() + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + assets = pd.Index( + prices.index.get_level_values("asset").unique(), name="asset" + ) + + if self.exclude_st: + st_mask = self._build_st_eligibility_mask().reindex( + index=dates, columns=assets, fill_value=True + ) + else: + st_mask = pd.DataFrame(True, index=dates, columns=assets) + + window = self._build_listing_window_mask(dates, assets) + hard_eligible = st_mask & window + + suspended = pd.DataFrame(False, index=dates, columns=assets) + if self._suspended is not None and not self._suspended.empty: + suspended = self._suspended.reindex( + index=dates, columns=assets, fill_value=False + ) + tradable = hard_eligible & ~suspended + universe = self._apply_universe_membership(dates, assets) + + flat = hard_eligible.stack() flat = flat.reindex(prices.index, fill_value=True).astype(bool) price_cols = [ @@ -240,22 +1039,231 @@ def _apply_pit_tradability_mask(self) -> None: # survived cleaning and are not excluded on every single date. Names # already dropped by `_remove_long_suspensions` are not in the mask # and so disappear from it here too. - ever_eligible = mask.any(axis=0) - dropped = mask.columns[~ever_eligible] + ever_eligible = hard_eligible.any(axis=0) + dropped = hard_eligible.columns[~ever_eligible] if len(dropped): logger.info( - "ST mask excludes %d assets for the whole sample: %s", + "Tradability mask excludes %d assets for the whole sample: %s", len(dropped), list(dropped[:10]), ) - kept = mask.columns[ever_eligible] + kept = hard_eligible.columns[ever_eligible] self.valid_assets = pd.Index(kept, name="asset") self.metadata = self.metadata.loc[ self.metadata.index.isin(self.valid_assets) ] - self.st_eligible = mask.loc[:, ever_eligible] + self.st_eligible = ( + st_mask.loc[:, ever_eligible] if self.exclude_st else None + ) + self._hard_eligible = hard_eligible.loc[:, ever_eligible] + self.tradable_mask = tradable.loc[:, ever_eligible] + # Keep only the columns that survive the ever-eligible filter; the + # mask itself already covers every price asset (all True where the + # provider gave no usable membership column). + self.universe_mask = universe.loc[:, ever_eligible] self.prices = prices + def _apply_universe_membership( + self, dates: pd.DatetimeIndex, assets: pd.Index, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Build the provider's per-date index-membership universe mask. + + The result is a boolean date x asset panel kept *separate* from + ``tradable_mask`` (R6b). The backtest gates buys on + ``tradable_mask & universe_mask`` and sells on ``tradable_mask`` + only: a name leaving the index must not be buyable, but a position + already held must still be closable. + + Only a provider that advertises *date-stamped* constituent history + (``universe_history_available is True``) is trusted. A provider that + exposes ``get_index_membership_mask`` but whose data is a single + end-date snapshot would replay the final constituents over the whole + sample -- the same look-ahead this gate exists to remove -- so it is + refused with a warning and every asset-day stays a member. The same + refusal applies when the returned mask itself has fewer than two + distinct snapshot dates: a lone snapshot cannot prove per-date + history, however the provider's availability flag was set (a + provider cache can round-trip a fallback snapshot into a + "history" table). + + The mask is aligned to the panel by date (snapshot-dated panels -- the + real provider's ``index_weight`` history is monthly -- stay in force + until the next snapshot; dates before the first snapshot are not + members) and by asset (only the column intersection is applied; + assets with no mask column stay members instead of being silently + excluded). A mask fetch that raises aborts the run: silently + treating a broken mask as all-True or all-False would silently change + the universe. + + Provider contract: ``get_index_membership_mask(start, end)`` returns + a boolean date x asset frame; it may be snapshot-dated, and a + snapshot's membership holds until the next snapshot. + """ + # Neutral panel: every asset may be bought unless real per-date + # constituent history says otherwise. This is also the refusal + # value for every branch below. + universe = pd.DataFrame(True, index=dates, columns=assets) + owner = self._provider_membership_owner() + if owner is None: + self.universe_pit = { + "applied": False, + "source": None, + "reason": "provider_has_no_membership_mask", + } + return universe + + hook = owner.get_index_membership_mask + provenance: dict = {"applied": False, "source": "get_index_membership_mask"} + index_code = getattr(owner, "index_code", None) + if index_code: + provenance["index_code"] = str(index_code) + + if getattr(owner, "universe_history_available", False) is not True: + logger.warning( + "%s: get_index_membership_mask is exposed but " + "universe_history_available is not True (single end-date " + "snapshot fallback). Refusing to apply it: replaying the " + "final constituents over the whole sample is look-ahead.", + provider_label(owner), + ) + self.universe_pit = { + **provenance, + "reason": "single_snapshot_constituent_history", + } + return universe + + try: + raw = hook(str(dates[0].date()), str(dates[-1].date())) + except Exception as exc: + logger.error( + "%s: index-membership mask fetch failed; aborting instead of " + "silently keeping an unmasked tradability panel", + provider_label(owner), + ) + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(owner)}: get_index_membership_mask failed " + f"({exc}); refusing to fall back to an unmasked universe" + ) from exc + + if not isinstance(raw, pd.DataFrame): + raise DataContractError( + f"{provider_label(owner)}: get_index_membership_mask must " + f"return a pandas DataFrame, got {type(raw).__name__}" + ) + if raw.empty: + logger.warning( + "%s: get_index_membership_mask returned an empty frame; " + "every asset stays buyable (universe unchanged)", + provider_label(owner), + ) + self.universe_pit = {**provenance, "reason": "empty_membership_mask"} + return universe + + mask = raw.copy() + mask.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(pd.to_datetime(mask.index), name="date") + mask.columns = pd.Index( + [normalize_symbol(str(col)) for col in mask.columns], name="asset", + ) + # A provider that mixed ``600519`` and ``600519.SH`` labels collapses + # onto the same column; membership is "any of the duplicate labels". + if mask.index.has_duplicates: + mask = mask.groupby(level=0).any() + if mask.columns.has_duplicates: + mask = mask.T.groupby(level=0).any().T + # A table with a single distinct snapshot date inside the price window + # cannot prove per-date history, no matter what the provider's flag + # says. This is the documented single-end-date fallback shape (a + # provider cache can round-trip it into a "history" table and flip the + # flag on reload); applying it would blank every earlier day. The + # check is deliberately conservative: a legitimate short sample that + # only contains one snapshot is refused too (the gate is skipped and + # every asset stays buyable) because the two cases are + # indistinguishable from the mask alone. + snapshot_count = len(mask.index.intersection(dates)) + if snapshot_count < 2: + logger.warning( + "%s: index-membership mask has only %d distinct snapshot " + "date(s) inside the price window; refusing to apply a " + "single-snapshot mask as per-date history", + provider_label(owner), snapshot_count, + ) + self.universe_pit = { + **provenance, + "reason": "single_snapshot_constituent_history", + } + return universe + # Snapshot panels (Tushare index_weight is monthly) describe + # membership until the next snapshot, so days between snapshots + # inherit the previous row. Days before the first snapshot are + # unknown and stay False. + mask = mask.reindex(index=dates) + mask = mask.ffill().fillna(False).astype(bool) + + common = assets.intersection(mask.columns) + missing = assets.difference(mask.columns) + extra = mask.columns.difference(assets) + if len(missing) or len(extra): + logger.warning( + "%s: index-membership mask columns do not match the price " + "panel (%d asset(s) without a mask column, %d mask column(s) " + "matching no asset); applying the %d-column intersection and " + "keeping unmatched assets buyable", + provider_label(owner), len(missing), len(extra), len(common), + ) + if len(common) == 0: + logger.warning( + "%s: index-membership mask shares no asset with the price " + "panel; every asset stays buyable", + provider_label(owner), + ) + self.universe_pit = { + **provenance, + "reason": "membership_mask_columns_do_not_match", + } + return universe + + aligned = mask.loc[:, common] + universe.loc[:, common] = aligned + self.universe_pit = { + **provenance, + "applied": True, + "reason": "per_date_constituent_history", + } + logger.info( + "%s: applied per-date index-membership universe mask to %d " + "asset(s) over %d date(s) from %d snapshot(s); %d asset-day(s) " + "are not buyable (index exits still remain sellable)", + provider_label(owner), len(common), len(dates), snapshot_count, + int((~aligned).to_numpy().sum()), + ) + return universe + + def _provider_membership_owner(self): + """Provider in the wrapper chain that owns index-membership data. + + ``ValidatedProvider`` implements only the ``DataProvider`` ABC and + forwards selected declarations (price basis, corporate actions) but + not the optional membership hook. The primary source defines the + panel's semantics, so the membership mask is read from whichever + provider in the chain actually exposes + ``get_index_membership_mask`` -- mirroring `_provider_basis_attr`. + Returns ``None`` when no provider in the chain has the hook. + """ + provider = self.provider + seen: set[int] = set() + while provider is not None and id(provider) not in seen: + seen.add(id(provider)) + if callable(getattr(provider, "get_index_membership_mask", None)): + return provider + providers = getattr(provider, "providers", None) + if not isinstance(providers, dict) or not providers: + return None + primary = providers.get(getattr(provider, "primary", None)) + provider = primary if primary is not None else next( + iter(providers.values()) + ) + return None + def get_valid_assets(self) -> pd.Index: """Assets eligible on at least one date of the sample.""" if self.st_eligible is not None: @@ -294,10 +1302,19 @@ def universe_stats(self) -> dict: # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _load_point_in_time_data(self) -> None: - """Load ST timeseries and industry changes from provider if available.""" + """Load ST timeseries and industry changes from provider if available. + + Their ``asset`` columns are normalized to the canonical symbol form + just like prices/financials/metadata; a provider that labels prices + ``600519.SH`` and its ST episodes ``600519`` would otherwise build a + mask that never matches the panel. + """ if hasattr(self.provider, 'get_st_timeseries'): try: self._st_timeseries = self.provider.get_st_timeseries() + self._st_timeseries = self._normalize_asset_column( + self._st_timeseries, + ) logger.info("Loaded ST timeseries: %d records", len(self._st_timeseries)) except Exception as e: logger.warning("Failed to load ST timeseries: %s", e) @@ -305,37 +1322,106 @@ def _load_point_in_time_data(self) -> None: if hasattr(self.provider, 'get_industry_changes'): try: self._industry_changes = self.provider.get_industry_changes() + self._industry_changes = self._normalize_asset_column( + self._industry_changes, + ) logger.info("Loaded industry changes: %d records", len(self._industry_changes)) except Exception as e: logger.warning("Failed to load industry changes: %s", e) + @staticmethod + def _normalize_asset_column( + df: pd.DataFrame | None, + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Rewrite a flat table's ``asset`` column to canonical symbols.""" + if df is None or df.empty or "asset" not in df.columns: + return df + normalized = df["asset"].map(normalize_symbol) + if normalized.equals(df["asset"]): + return df + renamed = df.copy() + renamed["asset"] = normalized + return renamed + def get_financials_as_of(self, as_of_date: pd.Timestamp) -> pd.DataFrame: """Get financial data available as of a given date (no look-ahead). - Only includes financials whose publish_date <= as_of_date. - For each asset, returns the most recently published record. + Only includes financials whose publish_date <= as_of_date, hides + pre-listing reports, and drops names already delisted as of the query + date. For each asset, returns the most recently published record. + + Point-in-time semantics require a ``publish_date`` column. A panel + without one has no honest PIT basis, so this accessor raises + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError` instead of + returning the full panel as if it were safe (the old behaviour gave + false assurance for Tushare/Baostock/Postgres panels, which had no + publication timestamps). Args: as_of_date: The date to filter by (inclusive). Returns: - DataFrame with latest available financials per asset. + DataFrame with the latest available financials per asset. + + Raises: + DataQualityError: when the provider supplies no ``publish_date``. """ - if self.financials is None: - return pd.DataFrame() + empty = pd.DataFrame( + index=pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + ) + if self.financials is None or self.financials.empty: + return empty if "publish_date" not in self.financials.columns: - # No publish_date column — use all data (legacy provider) - logger.warning("Financials missing publish_date — using all data (no PIT filter)") - return self.financials + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: financials have no " + "'publish_date' column, so no point-in-time view exists. " + "Refusing to return the full panel as if it were PIT-safe; " + "fix the provider (map reports to their first trading day " + "on/after the announcement date) or query the raw panel " + "explicitly." + ) - # Filter: only records whose publish_date <= as_of_date - available = self.financials[self.financials["publish_date"] <= as_of_date] + as_of_date = pd.Timestamp(as_of_date) + available = self.financials[ + pd.to_datetime(self.financials["publish_date"], errors="coerce") + <= as_of_date + ] if available.empty: - return pd.DataFrame() + return empty + + # A company has no fundamentals before it lists; reports generated + # for pre-listing periods (or carried over from a provider) must not + # be visible to a cross-section that predates the listing. + if self.metadata is not None and "listing_date" in self.metadata.columns: + listing = pd.to_datetime(self.metadata["listing_date"], errors="coerce") + listed_by_then = listing[listing <= as_of_date].index + available = available[ + available.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(listed_by_then) + ] + if available.empty: + return empty + + # Delisted names have no tradable cross-section after their delisting + # date (provider-stated or inferred from a terminal gap). + if self._delisting_dates is not None: + delisting = pd.to_datetime(self._delisting_dates, errors="coerce") + elif self.metadata is not None and "delisting_date" in self.metadata.columns: + delisting = pd.to_datetime(self.metadata["delisting_date"], errors="coerce") + else: + delisting = None + if delisting is not None: + delisted_by_then = delisting[ + delisting.notna() & (delisting <= as_of_date) + ].index + if len(delisted_by_then): + available = available[ + ~available.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(delisted_by_then) + ] + if available.empty: + return empty # For each asset, take the record with the latest publish_date - # Reset index to work with date/asset columns available = available.reset_index() idx = available.groupby("asset")["publish_date"].idxmax() latest = available.loc[idx].set_index(["date", "asset"]) @@ -399,6 +1485,79 @@ def get_industry_map(self, as_of_date: pd.Timestamp) -> dict: latest = available.loc[idx] return dict(zip(latest["asset"], latest["industry"], strict=False)) + def has_industry_history(self) -> bool: + """True when the provider supplied a non-empty industry-change table. + + Distinguishes "no history at all" -- where the static metadata map is + the only answer ``get_industry_map`` can give and is therefore a + legitimate fallback -- from "history exists but does not classify + these dates", where falling back to the static (whole-sample) map + would reintroduce the look-ahead this panel exists to remove. + """ + return ( + self._industry_changes is not None + and not self._industry_changes.empty + ) + + def get_sector_panel(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Point-in-time sector panel (date x asset). + + Row t is exactly ``get_industry_map(date_t)``: the classification in + effect *on* that date. Using this panel for neutralization keeps a + historical reclassification from leaking into earlier cross-sections + (the static metadata map is a single whole-sample classification -- + typically the latest known one -- and is a look-ahead whenever the + provider ships industry changes). + + Providers without an industry-change history fall back to the static + metadata ``sector`` map repeated for every date -- the same answer + ``get_industry_map`` gives them -- so callers see one shape either + way. The panel is cached per run. + """ + if self._sector_panel is not None: + return self._sector_panel + + if self.prices is None: + return pd.DataFrame() + + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + self.prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + assets = pd.Index(self.get_valid_assets()) + if len(assets) == 0: + assets = pd.Index( + self.prices.index.get_level_values("asset").unique(), + name="asset", + ) + + has_history = self.has_industry_history() + if has_history: + # One get_industry_map() call per date -- hoisted out of the + # asset loop. Calling it per (date, asset) made the panel + # quadratic: 46,800 calls / ~98s at 390x120, ~35 minutes at the + # default 1,304x500 sample. + rows = [] + for date in dates: + mapping = self.get_industry_map(date) + rows.append([mapping.get(asset) for asset in assets]) + panel = pd.DataFrame(rows, index=dates, columns=assets) + elif self.metadata is not None and "sector" in self.metadata.columns: + base = self.metadata["sector"].reindex(assets).to_numpy( + dtype=object, copy=True, + ) + panel = pd.DataFrame( + [base.copy() for _ in range(len(dates))], + index=dates, + columns=assets, + ) + else: + panel = pd.DataFrame(index=dates, columns=assets, dtype=object) + + panel.index.name = "date" + panel.columns.name = "asset" + self._sector_panel = panel + return panel + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Price cleaning # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -414,6 +1573,20 @@ def _clean_prices(self) -> None: if self.exclude_suspended: df = self._remove_long_suspensions(df) + # Delisting dates must be known before suspension derivation: a + # terminal NaN run is a delisting, not a suspension. + raw_close = df["close"].unstack("asset") + self._delisting_dates = self._derive_delisting_dates(raw_close) + + # Suspension flags from the data itself: providers that ffill without + # an `is_suspended` column (Tushare/Baostock) must not book fake zero + # returns across the fill. + self._suspended = self._derive_suspensions(df) + + # adj_factor must be finite and > 0 wherever close exists; a zero + # factor used to produce inf close_adj and corrupt returns/limit flags. + self._repair_adj_factor(df) + # Price adjustment df["close_adj"] = df["close"] / df["adj_factor"] df["open_adj"] = df["open"] / df["adj_factor"] @@ -423,34 +1596,128 @@ def _clean_prices(self) -> None: # Handle price limits: stocks at limit ( ±10%) are untradable close = df["close_adj"].unstack("asset") change = close.pct_change(fill_method=None) + # A resume-day jump is a multi-day move, not a limit move: do not + # label rows whose price spans a forward-filled suspension. + suspended = self._suspended.reindex( + index=close.index, columns=close.columns, fill_value=False + ) + change = change.mask(suspended | suspended.shift(1)) limit_thresholds = pd.DataFrame(0.10, index=close.index, columns=close.columns) for col in close.columns: - code = str(col) - if code.startswith(("300", "301", "688", "689")): - limit_thresholds[col] = 0.20 - elif code.startswith(("8", "4")): - limit_thresholds[col] = 0.30 + # Board rule from the normalized six-digit code, so prefix-style + # symbols (`sz300001`, `sh.688001`) and Beijing codes + # (`4`/`8`/`920`) do not fall through to the 10% default. + threshold = price_limit_threshold(col) + if threshold != 0.10: + limit_thresholds[col] = threshold up = (change >= limit_thresholds - 1e-4) & change.notna() down = (change <= -limit_thresholds + 1e-4) & change.notna() df["is_limit_up"] = up.stack().reindex(df.index).fillna(False).astype(bool) df["is_limit_down"] = down.stack().reindex(df.index).fillna(False).astype(bool) + # Materialise the derived flags on the rows that exist. Rows the + # provider dropped entirely cannot carry a column value; consumers + # that need the full grid use `self._suspended`. + df["is_suspended"] = ( + self._suspended.stack().reindex(df.index).fillna(False).astype(bool) + ) + self.prices = df + def _repair_adj_factor(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> None: + """Validate ``adj_factor`` and repair missing/invalid values. + + Policy (documented in the module docstring): an invalid or missing + factor is forward-filled from the last valid factor of the same asset + with a WARNING and a count (``self.adj_factor_repairs``). A factor + that cannot be repaired — no earlier valid value for that asset, e.g. + a zero on the asset's first priced day — raises + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError` naming the + provider and the offending keys. Rows without a close do not need a + factor (``close_adj`` is NaN from the missing close itself), so an + irreparable factor there is left alone. + """ + factor = df["adj_factor"].astype(float) + invalid = ~np.isfinite(factor) | (factor <= 0) + if not invalid.any(): + return + + close = df["close"] + needs_repair = invalid & close.notna() + if not needs_repair.any(): + return + + repaired = factor.mask(invalid).groupby(level="asset").ffill() + unrepairable = needs_repair & repaired.isna() + if unrepairable.any(): + offending = unrepairable[unrepairable] + sample = [ + f"{asset}@{str(date)[:10]}" + for date, asset in offending.index[:5] + ] + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: adj_factor must be finite " + f"and > 0 wherever close is present; {len(offending)} row(s) " + "have no earlier valid factor to forward-fill from " + f"(e.g. {sample}). Fix the provider's adjustment-factor data." + ) + + repaired_count = int((needs_repair & repaired.notna()).sum()) + if repaired_count: + repaired_keys = needs_repair & repaired.notna() + sample = [ + f"{asset}@{str(date)[:10]}" + for date, asset in repaired_keys[repaired_keys].index[:5] + ] + self.adj_factor_repairs = repaired_count + logger.warning( + "adj_factor: repaired %d invalid/missing row(s) by " + "forward-filling the last valid factor per asset (e.g. %s)", + repaired_count, sample, + ) + df["adj_factor"] = factor.where(~invalid, repaired) + def _remove_long_suspensions(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Drop assets with a consecutive suspension run longer than the limit.""" + """Drop assets that never trade; keep history around long gaps. + + The old rule removed an asset from the *entire sample* whenever any + consecutive NaN run exceeded the limit. A stock that suspended for 35 + days in 2024 vanished from every 2021-2023 cross-section, and a stock + listing 40 days into the sample was dropped although it traded + afterwards -- universe membership on early dates was decided by later + events. Long gaps already remain NaN (the forward-fill is capped at + `max_suspension_days`), so NaN-aware consumers skip those dates + without losing the asset's valid history. + """ close = df["close"].unstack("asset") - drop_assets = [] + + never_traded = [ + asset for asset in close.columns + if close[asset].isna().all() + ] + if never_traded: + df = df[ + ~df.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(never_traded) + ] + logger.info( + "Dropping %d assets with no price observations", len(never_traded), + ) + + gapped = [] for asset in close.columns: + if asset in never_traded: + continue is_nan = close[asset].isna() groups = (is_nan != is_nan.shift()).cumsum() run_lengths = is_nan.astype(int).groupby(groups).transform("sum") if (run_lengths > self.max_suspension_days).any(): - drop_assets.append(asset) - if drop_assets: - logger.info("Dropping %d assets with long suspensions: %s", - len(drop_assets), drop_assets[:10]) - df = df[~df.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(drop_assets)] + gapped.append(asset) + if gapped: + logger.info( + "Assets with suspension gaps longer than %d days (history " + "retained, gap stays NaN): %d, e.g. %s", + self.max_suspension_days, len(gapped), gapped[:10], + ) return df # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -460,50 +1727,399 @@ def _remove_long_suspensions(self, df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: def _compute_returns(self) -> None: """Compute daily returns from adjusted close prices. - ST asset-days were already blanked by `_apply_pit_tradability_mask()`, - so their returns are NaN and the backtest cannot hold them. Because - `returns[t]` spans t to t+1, the ST window's first day (the - announcement date, when the position must be exited) also comes out - NaN — the conservative reading, since the ST-day price move is not a - return the strategy could have earned. + ST/listing/delisting asset-days were already blanked in the price + panel by `_apply_pit_tradability_mask()`, so their returns are NaN and + the backtest cannot hold them. Because `returns[t]` spans t to t+1, + the ST window's first day (the announcement date, when the position + must be exited) also comes out NaN — the conservative reading, since + the ST-day price move is not a return the strategy could have earned. + + Suspension days keep their stale mark in `prices` (valuation), so the + return series needs the mask explicitly: a forward-filled close would + otherwise book a fake zero on every suspended day and a compounded + multi-day jump on the resume day. The mask is derived from the data + (`self._suspended`), so providers without `is_suspended` are covered. """ close = self.prices["close_adj"].unstack("asset") - self.returns = close.pct_change(fill_method=None).shift(-1) + returns = close.pct_change(fill_method=None).shift(-1) # shift(-1): return from today's close to tomorrow's close + # A suspension leaves a stale (forward-filled) close. `returns[s-1]` + # then becomes a fake zero and `returns[s]` the compounded multi-day + # move -- adjacent contaminated observations that produce a spurious + # reversal signal. Neither is a one-day return, so drop both. + suspended = pd.DataFrame(False, index=returns.index, columns=returns.columns) + if self._suspended is not None and not self._suspended.empty: + suspended = self._suspended.reindex( + index=returns.index, columns=returns.columns, fill_value=False + ) + returns = returns.mask(suspended | suspended.shift(-1)) + + self.returns = returns + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Alignment # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _align(self) -> None: - """Ensure all datasets share the same date/asset index.""" + """Ensure all datasets share the same date/asset index. + + The benchmark needs more than a reindex. `returns[t]` spans t -> t+1, + but every external provider's benchmark series is trailing: + `benchmark[t] = P_t / P_{t-1} - 1`. Aligning them by date alone lines + the strategy's t -> t+1 return up against the benchmark's t-1 -> t + return -- one day of offset. A strategy that tracks the index exactly + then shows a tracking error of roughly sqrt(2) times the index + volatility instead of ~0. Shifting the trailing series by -1 puts it + in the same forward convention as `returns`. Benchmarks already in + forward convention (flagged via `benchmark_is_trailing=False` or the + provider attribute) are left alone; the engine's internal equal-weight + benchmark never reaches this method at all. + """ dates = self.prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() assets = self.prices.index.get_level_values("asset").unique() # Align benchmark to price dates - self.benchmark = self.benchmark.reindex(dates) - - # Align financials - self.financials = self.financials[ - self.financials.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(assets) - ] + if self.benchmark is not None: + benchmark = self.benchmark + if self.benchmark_is_trailing: + # trailing[t] = P_t/P_{t-1}-1 -> forward[t] = P_{t+1}/P_t-1 + # shift is positional, so order the labels first. + benchmark = benchmark.sort_index().shift(-1) + self.benchmark = benchmark.reindex(dates) + + # Align financials. A provider may legitimately have no fundamentals + # (e.g. every Baostock query failed, or the source has no statements): + # give the empty frame the documented (date, asset) MultiIndex instead + # of calling get_level_values("asset") on a RangeIndex and killing the + # whole run. + if self.financials is None: + self.financials = pd.DataFrame( + index=pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + ) + elif self.financials.empty: + self.financials = pd.DataFrame( + columns=self.financials.columns, + index=pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]), + ) + else: + self.financials = self.financials[ + self.financials.index.get_level_values("asset").isin(assets) + ] # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Convenience accessors # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + def get_adjusted_close(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Return the return-generating (adjusted) close panel (date x asset). + + This is the continuous series research differences into returns and + factors: for Tushare/Baostock it carries the hfq levels (via the + provider's divisor), for synthetic the generated continuous path. + ``attrs["price_basis"]`` states ``hfq``/``qfq``/``raw`` explicitly + and ``attrs["adjustment_factor_available"]`` says whether a real + corporate-action divisor backed it. This panel is **not** a traded + CNY price; never use it for fills, cash or position marks. + """ + if self.prices is None: + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: pipeline has not run; " + "call run() before requesting prices" + ) + close = self.prices["close_adj"].unstack("asset") + return self._tag_price_panel(close, self.adjusted_price_basis) + def get_close(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Return close prices (unstacked: date x asset).""" - return self.prices["close_adj"].unstack("asset") + """Deprecated alias of :meth:`get_adjusted_close`. + + Kept because most call sites are research consumers that predate the + explicit basis contract. It returns the *adjusted* series (the same + panel it returned before this wave) and is documented as such. + New money-path code must call :meth:`get_raw_close` instead. + """ + return self.get_adjusted_close() + + def get_raw_close(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Return the traded (raw) close panel (date x asset). + + This is the CNY price a fill or mark must use. It fails closed with + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError` when the + provider only supplied adjusted levels (``price_basis`` in + ``qfq``/``hfq``) or did not declare a basis at all: silently treating + an hfq level as a market price is exactly the D15 defect. Callers + that have a real-time/broker quote should prefer it; there is no + honest way to invert an adjusted series without the factor. + """ + if self.prices is None: + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: pipeline has not run; " + "call run() before requesting prices" + ) + if self.price_basis != "raw": + raise DataQualityError( + f"{provider_label(self.provider)}: no raw close is " + f"available (provider price basis is {self.price_basis!r}). " + "Refusing to use adjusted price levels as a CNY fill or " + "mark price. Configure a provider that returns raw OHLCV " + "plus adj_factor, or use the broker/real-time quote." + ) + close = self.prices["close"].unstack("asset") + return self._tag_price_panel(close, "raw") + + def get_corporate_actions(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Corporate actions aligned to the loaded sample (paper-engine input). + + Returns the provider feed (``ex_date, asset, kind, cash_per_share, + split_ratio``) filtered to this pipeline's ``[start_date, end_date]`` + and to the assets in the loaded price panel, with canonical + ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` symbols. The frame is cached after the first call. + + ``corporate_actions_available`` reports whether a real feed backed + the result. A provider without one (or whose API failed) yields the + documented empty frame -- never ``None``, and never fabricated rows; + callers must not then apply any action locally. + """ + if self._corporate_actions is not None: + return self._corporate_actions.copy() + + available = bool( + getattr(self.provider, "corporate_actions_available", False) + ) + frame = empty_corporate_actions() + hook = getattr(self.provider, "get_corporate_actions", None) + if callable(hook): + try: + raw = hook( + str(self.start_date.date()), str(self.end_date.date()), + ) + frame = normalize_corporate_actions(raw) + available = available or not frame.empty + except Exception as exc: # a broken feed is "unavailable", not fatal + logger.warning( + "%s: corporate-action feed failed: %s", + provider_label(self.provider), exc, + ) + frame = empty_corporate_actions() + available = False + + # Align to the sample: date window first, then the assets the panel + # actually carries. `self.prices` is filtered to the valid universe + # (listing window, ST policy) by run(); before run() the metadata + # sample is the best available definition. + if not frame.empty: + frame = frame.loc[ + (frame["ex_date"] >= self.start_date) + & (frame["ex_date"] <= self.end_date) + ] + assets = None + if self.prices is not None: + assets = set( + self.prices.index.get_level_values("asset").unique() + ) + elif self.metadata is not None: + assets = set(self.metadata.index) + if assets is not None: + frame = frame.loc[frame["asset"].isin(assets)] + frame = frame.reset_index(drop=True) + + self._corporate_actions = frame + self.corporate_actions_available = available + return frame.copy() + + def get_factor_prices(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Adjusted close with suspension rows blanked for research inputs. + + The panel is the return-generating (adjusted) series; its + ``attrs["price_basis"]`` is ``hfq``/``qfq`` (or ``raw`` for a + provider with no corporate-action factor). It is research data, not + a CNY price -- use :meth:`get_raw_close` for money. + + `get_close()` keeps the stale mark, which is what valuation wants on a + day a stock could not trade. Research inputs are different: a factor + that differences across the fill sees a fake zero followed by a + multi-day move. Blanking those rows makes pandas propagate NaN across + both boundaries instead of fabricating a reversal. Suspension is + derived from the data (`self._suspended`), not taken on trust from an + optional provider column. + + The full asset-day eligibility mask travels in + ``attrs["excluded_mask"]``: factor computation forward-fills the price + path for level continuity, and it must re-blank these rows instead of + resurrecting ST, pre-listing, delisted or suspended names. When the + provider's per-date index-membership history was applied + (``universe_pit["applied"]``), the mask also excludes asset-days on + which the name was not an index constituent (R6c), so research + inputs -- the raw factor panels and, via main.py, the final signal -- + take values only where the asset was both tradeable and a member on + that date. + + Membership is a research-input *output* exclusion only. The price + panel is not cropped: a name that joins the index later keeps its + earlier price history, because its factor levels must be computed from + that history, not re-warmed from the inclusion date. To make that + possible without re-introducing excluded rows into factor inputs, + ``attrs["tradable_excluded_mask"]`` carries the tradability-only + exclusion (the pre-R6c formula). ``main._compute_factors`` swaps that + panel attribute in for the ``inst.run(...)`` call and re-applies the + combined ``excluded_mask`` to the factor outputs, so only the output + cells before inclusion (and on/after an exit) are blanked. The + signal-level mask is the combined one. + ``get_tradable_mask()`` and ``get_execution_gates()`` keep their R6b + semantics (no membership), so an index exit never blocks a sale. + When no per-date membership history was applied (no hook, or the + single-snapshot fallback), ``excluded_mask`` is bit-for-bit + ``~tradable_mask`` as before and the two masks coincide. + """ + close = self.prices["close_adj"].unstack("asset") + if self._suspended is not None and not self._suspended.empty: + suspended = self._suspended.reindex( + index=close.index, columns=close.columns, fill_value=False + ) + close = close.mask(suspended) + if self.tradable_mask is not None and not self.tradable_mask.empty: + tradable_excluded = (~self.tradable_mask).reindex( + index=close.index, columns=close.columns, fill_value=True, + ) + excluded = tradable_excluded + if ( + self.universe_pit.get("applied") is True + and self.universe_mask is not None + and not self.universe_mask.empty + ): + # Align the membership panel to the price panel first; any + # asset-day it does not cover is excluded (fail closed, the + # same policy as the tradability reindex above). + excluded = excluded | (~self.universe_mask).reindex( + index=close.index, columns=close.columns, fill_value=True, + ) + close.attrs["tradable_excluded_mask"] = tradable_excluded + close.attrs["excluded_mask"] = excluded + return self._tag_price_panel(close, self.adjusted_price_basis) + + def get_tradable_mask(self) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """(date x asset) True where a new signal/weight is allowed. + + False on ST days (when `exclude_st`), before listing, from the + delisting date onward, and on suspension days. Index membership is + deliberately *not* included (R6b): this is the execution-layer + tradability mask, so an index exit never narrows it and a held + position can always be sold. Research inputs carry the membership + narrowing separately -- `get_factor_prices()` folds the applied + `universe_mask` into its ``excluded_mask`` (R6c) -- while this + method's return value and `get_execution_gates()` keep their R6b + semantics unchanged. + """ + return self.tradable_mask + + def get_execution_gates(self) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: + """Panels the backtest needs to block untradeable execution days. + + A signal generated at the close of day *d* is filled at the close of + *d+1*. Checking ``tradable_mask`` only on *d* let the backtest buy at + a limit-up close, buy a suspended name, or sell at limit-down. The + engine accepts ``tradable_mask`` / ``universe_mask`` / ``limit_up`` / + ``limit_down`` and checks them on the execution date; this accessor + is the wiring point. ``universe_mask`` gates buys only (an index + exit must not trap a held position), and is always present as an + all-True panel when no per-date membership history was applied. + Panels are date x asset and empty when the pipeline did not derive + them (the engine then treats every day as tradeable, as before). + """ + gates: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {} + mask = self.tradable_mask + if mask is not None and not mask.empty: + gates["tradable_mask"] = mask + universe = self.universe_mask + if universe is not None and not universe.empty: + gates["universe_mask"] = universe + if self.prices is not None: + for name in ("is_limit_up", "is_limit_down"): + if name not in self.prices.columns: + continue + panel = self.prices[name].unstack("asset").astype(bool) + gates["limit_up" if name == "is_limit_up" else "limit_down"] = panel + return gates + + def get_factor_ohlc(self) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: + """Adjusted open/high/low panels for factors that need them. + + Candle factors used to receive no OHLC at all and silently returned + all-zero panels; they now declare ``required_inputs`` and refuse to + run without them. Rows a factor must not see (suspended or otherwise + ineligible) are blanked exactly like ``get_factor_prices()``. + """ + panels: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {} + if self.prices is None: + return panels + for field in ("open", "high", "low"): + column = f"{field}_adj" + if column not in self.prices.columns: + continue + panel = self.prices[column].unstack("asset") + if self._suspended is not None and not self._suspended.empty: + panel = panel.mask( + self._suspended.reindex( + index=panel.index, columns=panel.columns, fill_value=False, + ) + ) + panels[field] = self._tag_price_panel( + panel, self.adjusted_price_basis, + ) + return panels + + def _blank_ineligible_rows(self, panel: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Blank hard-ineligible rows (ST, pre-listing, post-delisting). + + Suspension is deliberately *not* blanked here: a stale volume/turnover + observation keeps the rolling history continuous, and the suspended + asset-day itself is excluded from factor outputs and the signal by + `tradable_mask`. + """ + mask = self._hard_eligible + if mask is None or mask.empty: + return panel + excluded = (~mask).reindex( + index=panel.index, columns=panel.columns, fill_value=True, + ) + return panel.mask(excluded) def get_volume(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Return volume (unstacked: date x asset).""" - return self.prices["volume"].unstack("asset") + """Return volume (unstacked: date x asset), hard-ineligible rows blanked. + + Blanked outside the listed window (no volume before listing or after + delisting) and while ST. Suspended rows keep the provider's stale + observation; `tradable_mask` excludes them from signals/weights. + """ + return self._blank_ineligible_rows(self.prices["volume"].unstack("asset")) def get_turnover(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Return turnover rate (unstacked: date x asset).""" - return self.prices["turnover"].unstack("asset") + """Return turnover rate (unstacked: date x asset), hard-ineligible rows blanked.""" + return self._blank_ineligible_rows(self.prices["turnover"].unstack("asset")) def get_market_cap(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Return market cap from financials (unstacked: date x asset).""" - return self.financials["market_cap"].unstack("asset") + """Return market cap from financials (unstacked: date x asset). + + Blanked before listing, after delisting and while ST: a name has no + meaningful market cap before it lists, and a fundamental cross-section + must not include it there. + + A provider with legitimately no fundamentals yields an all-NaN + date x asset panel (the documented empty shape) instead of a KeyError. + """ + if self.prices is not None and ( + self.financials is None + or self.financials.empty + or "market_cap" not in self.financials.columns + ): + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + self.prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + assets = pd.Index( + self.prices.index.get_level_values("asset").unique(), name="asset" + ) + return pd.DataFrame(np.nan, index=dates, columns=assets) + + return self._blank_ineligible_rows( + self.financials["market_cap"].unstack("asset") + ) diff --git a/data/providers/adata_provider.py b/data/providers/adata_provider.py index 70f8be8..cfeae43 100644 --- a/data/providers/adata_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/adata_provider.py @@ -3,6 +3,23 @@ Covers A-share stocks, ETFs, indices, concepts, capital flows, dragon-tiger lists, and sentiment data. Multi-source failover. +Contract status +--------------- +Adata's stock API is not shaped like the platform's ``DataProvider`` price +panel. Its K-line endpoint does not declare a price basis and does not +expose the raw-close + ``adj_factor`` divisor pair the pipeline divides by, +so returning its OHLCV frame would hand out levels that look like traded +CNY prices while possibly carrying adjusted (qfq/hfq) values. This +provider therefore **fails closed for prices**: ``get_prices`` raises +:class:`NotImplementedError` with an actionable message instead of +returning that frame. It remains usable as a secondary/validation source +for metadata and benchmark data, and for its Adata-specific research +helpers (capital flow, dragon-tiger list, concepts, north flow). + +``get_financials`` likewise raises :class:`NotImplementedError` rather than +returning a wide close-only frame that looks like a valid financial panel. +Supporting fetches that take a date range are sliced to ``end_date``. + Install: pip install adata """ @@ -15,28 +32,45 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +# Date-column aliases adata may return; the benchmark fetch normalises them. +_COLUMN_ALIASES = { + "trade_date": "date", + "trade_time": "date", +} + class AdataProvider(DataProvider): """A-share market data via adata (multi-source, free). Features: - Stock codes, concepts, industry classification - - Daily/weekly/monthly K-line - Real-time quotes and 5-level order book - Capital flow (individual stock + concept) - Dragon-tiger list - North-bound capital flow - ETF data - - Financial data + + Prices are deliberately unsupported (see the module docstring): the + K-line endpoint has no declared raw/adjusted basis and no divisor. + ``get_prices`` raises :class:`NotImplementedError` so this source can + never feed a money path or a research return series by accident. + + ``st_available`` is False: adata's stock list does not expose an ST + history, so no ``is_st`` column is fabricated. """ + #: Explicit contract declaration: no price basis is offered at all. + price_adjustment = "unsupported" + adjustment_factor_available = False + def __init__(self): self._adata = None + self.st_available = False def _lazy_import(self): if self._adata is not None: return - import adata # noqa: F811 + import adata self._adata = adata # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -49,108 +83,120 @@ def get_prices( end_date: str, fields: list[str] | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get daily OHLCV prices for all A-share stocks. + """Not supported: fail closed instead of returning a look-alike panel. - Returns (date, asset) multi-indexed DataFrame. + Adata's K-line frame carries no declared price basis and no + ``adj_factor`` divisor column, so a caller (or the validated + wrapper) could fuse qfq levels into a raw-marked panel. The + platform's contract is raw OHLCV plus a divisor; this source must + not pretend to satisfy it. """ - self._lazy_import() - codes = self.get_metadata() - all_data = [] - - for code in codes.index[:200]: # Limit universe for performance - try: - df = self._adata.stock.market.get_market( - stock_code=code, - k_type=1, - start_date=start_date, - ) - if df is not None and not df.empty: - df["asset"] = code - all_data.append(df) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Failed to fetch %s: %s", code, e) - - if not all_data: - return pd.DataFrame() - - result = pd.concat(all_data, ignore_index=True) - result["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(result["trade_date"]) - result = result.pivot_table( - index="trade_date", columns="asset", - values="close", aggfunc="first", + raise NotImplementedError( + "AdataProvider.get_prices cannot supply the platform's price " + "contract (raw OHLCV + adj_factor divisor): adata's K-line " + "endpoint does not declare whether its close is raw, qfq or hfq, " + "so any panel returned here could be mistaken for traded CNY " + "prices. Use AdataProvider only as a secondary/validation " + "source (metadata, benchmark, research helpers); configure " + "Tushare, Baostock or Postgres for prices and money paths." ) - result.index.name = "date" - result.columns.name = "asset" - return result def get_financials( self, start_date: str, end_date: str, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get core financial data (PE, PB, ROE, market cap).""" - self._lazy_import() - codes = self.get_metadata() - all_data = [] - - for code in codes.index[:200]: - try: - df = self._adata.stock.finance.get_core_index( - stock_code=code, - ) - if df is not None and not df.empty: - df["asset"] = code - all_data.append(df) - except Exception: - continue - - if not all_data: - return pd.DataFrame() + """Not supported. - result = pd.concat(all_data, ignore_index=True) - if "date" in result.columns: - result["date"] = pd.to_datetime(result["date"]) - result = result.pivot_table( - index="date", columns="asset", - values="pe_ttm", aggfunc="first", - ) - return result + Adata's core-index endpoint does not provide the complete + ``(date, asset)`` panel (market_cap / total_assets / net_assets / + revenue / net_profit / roe / pb / pe / asset_growth / publish_date) + the factors require. Returning a PE-only pivot would look valid and + silently drop the other factors, so this raises instead. + """ + raise NotImplementedError( + "AdataProvider.get_financials cannot supply the documented " + "(date, asset) financial panel; use Tushare/Baostock/Postgres" + ) def get_benchmark( self, start_date: str, end_date: str, ) -> pd.Series: - """Get CSI 300 index returns as benchmark.""" + """Get CSI 300 index trailing returns as the benchmark.""" self._lazy_import() try: - df = self._adata.stock.market.get_market_index( - index_code="000300", - start_date=start_date, - ) + try: + df = self._adata.stock.market.get_market_index( + index_code="000300", + start_date=start_date, + end_date=end_date, + ) + except TypeError: + df = self._adata.stock.market.get_market_index( + index_code="000300", + start_date=start_date, + ) if df is None or df.empty: - return pd.Series(dtype=float) - df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"]) - df = df.set_index("trade_date").sort_index() - closes = df["close"].astype(float) - return closes.pct_change().dropna() + return pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") + df = df.rename(columns=_COLUMN_ALIASES) + date_col = "date" if "date" in df.columns else df.columns[0] + df[date_col] = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col], errors="coerce") + df = df.dropna(subset=[date_col]).set_index(date_col).sort_index() + df = df.loc[:pd.Timestamp(end_date)] + closes = pd.to_numeric(df["close"], errors="coerce") + returns = closes.pct_change().dropna() + returns.name = "benchmark" + return returns except Exception as e: logger.warning("Failed to get benchmark: %s", e) - return pd.Series(dtype=float) + return pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get A-share stock metadata (code, name, exchange, sector).""" + """Get A-share stock metadata mapped to the platform contract.""" self._lazy_import() + columns = ["sector", "market_cap_group", "listing_date", "delisting_date"] try: - df = self._adata.stock.info.all_code() - if df is None or df.empty: - return pd.DataFrame() - df = df.set_index("stock_code") - df.index.name = "asset" - return df + raw = self._adata.stock.info.all_code() except Exception as e: logger.warning("Failed to get metadata: %s", e) - return pd.DataFrame() + return pd.DataFrame(columns=columns, index=pd.Index([], name="asset")) + if raw is None or raw.empty: + return pd.DataFrame(columns=columns, index=pd.Index([], name="asset")) + + df = raw.rename(columns={"stock_code": "asset"}).copy() + if "asset" not in df.columns: + return pd.DataFrame(columns=columns, index=pd.Index([], name="asset")) + df = df.set_index("asset") + df.index = df.index.map(lambda x: str(x).split(".")[-1].zfill(6)) + df.index.name = "asset" + + sector_col = next( + (c for c in ("sector", "industry", "industry_name") if c in df.columns), + None, + ) + df["sector"] = df[sector_col] if sector_col else "Unknown" + df["market_cap_group"] = "mid" # Placeholder; not used by the pipeline + listing_col = next( + (c for c in ("listing_date", "list_date", "ipo_date") if c in df.columns), + None, + ) + delisting_col = next( + (c for c in ("delisting_date", "delist_date", "out_date") if c in df.columns), + None, + ) + df["listing_date"] = ( + pd.to_datetime(df[listing_col], errors="coerce") + if listing_col else pd.NaT + ) + df["delisting_date"] = ( + pd.to_datetime(df[delisting_col], errors="coerce") + if delisting_col else pd.NaT + ) + result = df[columns].copy() + result.attrs["st_available"] = False + return result # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Adata-specific data (beyond DataProvider interface) @@ -162,9 +208,10 @@ def get_capital_flow( """Get historical daily capital flow for a stock.""" self._lazy_import() try: - return self._adata.stock.market.get_capital_flow( + df = self._adata.stock.market.get_capital_flow( stock_code=code, start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, ) + return self._slice_dates(df, end_date) except Exception as e: logger.warning("Capital flow failed for %s: %s", code, e) return pd.DataFrame() @@ -187,13 +234,26 @@ def get_concept_list(self) -> pd.DataFrame: logger.warning("Concept list failed: %s", e) return pd.DataFrame() - def get_north_flow(self, start_date: str = "") -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get north-bound capital flow (沪深港通).""" + def get_north_flow(self, start_date: str = "", end_date: str = "") -> pd.DataFrame: + """Get north-bound capital flow (沪深港通), sliced to ``end_date``.""" self._lazy_import() try: - return self._adata.sentiment.north.north_flow( - start_date=start_date, - ) + df = self._adata.sentiment.north.north_flow(start_date=start_date) + return self._slice_dates(df, end_date) except Exception as e: logger.warning("North flow failed: %s", e) return pd.DataFrame() + + @staticmethod + def _slice_dates(df, end_date: str): + """Drop rows after ``end_date`` when the source ignores the bound.""" + if df is None or getattr(df, "empty", True) or not end_date: + return df + date_col = next( + (c for c in ("trade_date", "date", "trade_time") if c in df.columns), + None, + ) + if date_col is None: + return df + dates = pd.to_datetime(df[date_col], errors="coerce") + return df.loc[dates <= pd.Timestamp(end_date)].copy() diff --git a/data/providers/baostock_provider.py b/data/providers/baostock_provider.py index a0276d6..93aa942 100644 --- a/data/providers/baostock_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/baostock_provider.py @@ -2,35 +2,320 @@ Fetches real A-share prices, financials, and benchmark data from baostock. Includes permanent caching for immutable historical data. + +Contract notes +-------------- +* Prices are returned as **raw** OHLCV (``adjustflag="3"``) plus the + corporate-action ``adj_factor`` divisor. With the default + ``adjustment="hfq"`` the provider also fetches the 后复权 series + (``adjustflag="1"``) and derives ``adj_factor = raw_close / hfq_close``, + so the pipeline's ``close_adj = close / adj_factor`` reproduces the hfq + levels research used before this wave while ``close`` is a tradeable CNY + price (D15/D18). Pass ``adjustment="raw"`` to skip the second fetch and + run with ``adj_factor=1`` (``adjustment_factor_available`` is then False + and the research series is raw). Never label hfq data as raw. +* ``volume`` is in shares and ``turnover`` is a fraction (Baostock reports + ``turn`` in percent). +* Financials are returned as a ``(date, asset)`` panel keyed to the first + trading day on/after each report's publication date, with ``publish_date`` + retained for point-in-time filtering and no backward fill. A report + without a usable ``pubDate`` has no honest visibility date and is dropped + (with a warning); the fiscal period end is never used as a substitute, + because that would make the figures visible weeks before the announcement. +* The stock universe includes delisted names (``status=0``) with + ``delisting_date``; the sample for a requested range is built from names + whose [listing, delisting] window overlaps that range. +* ST history is derived from the daily ``isST`` column, requested in the same + ``query_history_k_data_plus`` call as the prices (no extra request). A run + of consecutive ``isST == "1"`` observations is one episode whose + ``announce_date`` is the first day ST was actually observed (conservative + point-in-time: nothing is inferred before the fetched sample) and whose + ``trigger_date`` equals ``announce_date``, because baostock exposes no + earlier announcement date. ``st_available`` is True only when the derived + episode table is non-empty; a response without ``isST`` (missing column or + only empty values) yields an empty episode table rather than a fabricated + ``is_st`` flag. +* Per-symbol failures are retried; if any symbol still fails the fetch + raises :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` and nothing is cached. """ from __future__ import annotations +import hashlib +import json +import math +import os +import random import time from pathlib import Path +import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS, + INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS, + DataFetchIncompleteError, + DataProvider, + cache_manifest_matches, + canonicalize_panel_index, + complete_panel_marker, + deduplicate_panel, + empty_corporate_actions, + exchange_sessions, + incremental_fetch_start, + incremental_marker_extra, + last_day_missing_symbols, + normalize_corporate_actions, + panel_last_date, + provider_cache_lock, + read_cache_manifest, + read_incremental_status, + sessions_after, + symbols_on_date, + write_cache_manifest, + write_incremental_status, +) +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import normalize_symbol from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) CACHE_DIR = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent / ".cache" / "baostock" +# Bump these when cache semantics change; every cache key carries the version +# so a format/unit change can never silently replay old data. The schema +# generation (DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION) is mixed into `_cache_version()` at call +# time, so one bump invalidates the pipeline pickle *and* these provider +# caches (D13). +# v3: price semantics changed from pre-adjusted hfq levels (adj_factor=1) to +# raw OHLCV plus a derived divisor; v2 files must never be replayed. +# v4: financial panels no longer fabricate visibility dates for reports whose +# pubDate is missing or unparseable; v3 financial caches may contain those +# look-ahead rows and must never be replayed either. +# v5: asset_growth is now a same-quarter-last-year ratio resolved on the full +# fetched report sequence; v4 panels may carry growth values computed across a +# shifted positional window and must not be replayed. +# v6: the daily price query also requests ``isST`` and the observed flag is +# persisted in the panel as the side column ``_is_st_observed`` so derived ST +# episodes survive cache reloads; v5 panels carry no ST evidence and must not +# be replayed (they would silently disable ST screening on real data). +_CACHE_VERSION = "v6" +#: Basis of the stored ``close`` column (raw traded price). +_PRICE_ADJUSTMENT = "raw" +#: Basis of ``close / adj_factor`` when adjustment is enabled. +_ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS = "hfq" +_UNIVERSE_CACHE_VERSION = 2 +_UNIVERSE_CACHE_TTL_DAYS = 7 + +# Board prefixes used for stratified sampling: SH main, STAR, SZ main, +# ChiNext, and Beijing (43/83/87/92). +_BOARD_PREFIXES = ("60", "68", "00", "30", "43", "83", "87", "92") +_SH_PREFIXES = ("60", "68") +_SZ_PREFIXES = ("00", "30") +_MAJOR_LIST_SIZE = 500 +_SAMPLE_SEED = 42 +# Dedicated JSON cache: the generic parquet/CSV helpers expect a two-level +# (date, asset) index and cannot read back a flat code list without pyarrow. +_STOCK_BASIC_CACHE_FILE = f"stock_basic_universe_v{_UNIVERSE_CACHE_VERSION}.json" + +_PROFIT_FIELDS = ( + "code,pubDate,statDate,roeAvg,npMargin,gpMargin,netProfit,epsTTM," + "MBRevenue,totalShare,liqaShare" +) +_BALANCE_FIELDS = "code,pubDate,statDate,liabilityToAsset,assetToEquity" +_FINANCIAL_COLUMNS = [ + "market_cap", "total_assets", "net_assets", "revenue", "net_profit", + "roe", "pb_ratio", "pe_ratio", "asset_growth", "publish_date", +] +_PRICE_COLUMNS = [ + "open", "high", "low", "close", "preclose", "volume", "amount", + "turnover", "pct_chg", "pe_ttm", "pb_mrq", "vwap", "adj_factor", +] +#: Side column carried only inside the cached daily panel: the raw ``isST`` +#: observation. Never exposed on the price contract (``get_prices`` drops it). +_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN = "_is_st_observed" +#: Episode table contract, identical to SyntheticDataProvider's. +_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS = [ + "asset", "trigger_date", "announce_date", "end_date", "is_st", +] + + +def _interleave(buckets: list[list[str]]) -> list[str]: + """Round-robin merge so the head of the list already spans all boards.""" + result: list[str] = [] + active = [iter(bucket) for bucket in buckets if bucket] + while active: + remaining = [] + for it in active: + try: + result.append(next(it)) + except StopIteration: + continue + remaining.append(it) + active = remaining + return result + + +def _ensure_exchange_quotas(quotas: dict[str, int], ordered: dict[str, list[str]], n: int) -> None: + """When ``n >= 2``, never let a non-empty exchange lose all its seats. + + Proportional quotas can put every seat on one exchange for tiny, extremely + skewed samples; move one seat from the dominant exchange when that happens. + """ + if n < 2: + return + for missing_group, other_group in ((_SH_PREFIXES, _SZ_PREFIXES), (_SZ_PREFIXES, _SH_PREFIXES)): + missing = [prefix for prefix in missing_group if prefix in ordered] + other = [prefix for prefix in other_group if prefix in ordered] + if not missing or not other: + continue + if sum(quotas[prefix] for prefix in missing) > 0: + continue + other_seats = sum(quotas[prefix] for prefix in other) + if other_seats < 2: # cannot donate without emptying the other exchange + continue + donor = max((prefix for prefix in other if quotas[prefix] > 0), key=quotas.get) + recipient = max(missing, key=lambda prefix: (len(ordered[prefix]), prefix)) + quotas[donor] -= 1 + quotas[recipient] += 1 + + +def _stratified_sample(codes, n: int, seed: int = _SAMPLE_SEED) -> list[str]: + """Deterministically sample up to ``n`` codes across exchange boards. + + Codes are bucketed by two-digit prefix (60/68/00/30/43/83/87/92), each + bucket is sorted and sampled with a fixed seed, so the result does not + depend on the input ordering. Quotas are proportional to bucket size via + the largest-remainder method; every non-empty board gets a seat when + ``n`` allows it. The picked codes are interleaved so slicing the head + still covers both exchanges. + """ + buckets: dict[str, set[str]] = {prefix: set() for prefix in _BOARD_PREFIXES} + for raw in codes: + if not str(raw).strip(): + continue + code = str(raw).zfill(6) + if len(code) != 6 or not code.isdigit(): + continue + prefix = code[:2] + if prefix in buckets: + buckets[prefix].add(code) + ordered = {prefix: sorted(bucket) for prefix, bucket in buckets.items() if bucket} + total = sum(len(bucket) for bucket in ordered.values()) + if n <= 0 or total == 0: + return [] + + if total <= n: + quotas = {prefix: len(bucket) for prefix, bucket in ordered.items()} + else: + quotas: dict[str, int] = {} + remainders: dict[str, int] = {} + for prefix, bucket in ordered.items(): + quota, remainder = divmod(n * len(bucket), total) + quotas[prefix] = quota + remainders[prefix] = remainder + # Guarantee a seat for every non-empty board when the budget allows. + if n >= len(ordered): + for prefix in quotas: + if quotas[prefix] == 0: + quotas[prefix] = 1 + assigned = sum(quotas.values()) + by_remainder = sorted(ordered, key=lambda prefix: (-remainders[prefix], prefix)) + while assigned < n: + progressed = False + for prefix in by_remainder: + if assigned >= n: + break + if quotas[prefix] < len(ordered[prefix]): + quotas[prefix] += 1 + assigned += 1 + progressed = True + if not progressed: + break + # The minimum-one-seat rule may overshoot when n is tiny; trim it back. + while assigned > n: + donor = max((p for p in quotas if quotas[p] > 1), key=quotas.get, default=None) + if donor is None: + break + quotas[donor] -= 1 + assigned -= 1 + + _ensure_exchange_quotas(quotas, ordered, n) + + rng = random.Random(seed) + picked = [ + rng.sample(ordered[prefix], quotas[prefix]) + for prefix in _BOARD_PREFIXES + if prefix in ordered + ] + return _interleave(picked) + def _to_bs_code(code: str) -> str: - """Convert 6-digit code to baostock format (sh.600000 / sz.000001).""" - code = str(code).zfill(6) - code_int = int(code) - if code_int >= 600000: - return f"sh.{code}" - return f"sz.{code}" + """Convert an A-share code to baostock format (sh./sz./bj. + 6 digits). + + Accepts bare six-digit codes, ``sh.600000`` prefixes and ``600000.SH`` + suffixes. Beijing names (4/8/920 prefixes) map to ``bj.``. + """ + text = str(code).strip().lower() + if "." in text: + left, right = text.split(".", 1) + if left in ("sh", "sz", "bj"): + return f"{left}.{right.zfill(6)}" + if right in ("sh", "sz", "bj"): + return f"{right}.{left.zfill(6)}" + text = "".join(ch for ch in left if ch.isdigit()) or text + elif text.startswith(("sh", "sz", "bj")): + exchange, digits = text[:2], text[2:] + if digits.isdigit(): + return f"{exchange}.{digits.zfill(6)}" + + digits = text.zfill(6) + if not digits.isdigit(): + raise ValueError(f"Invalid A-share code: {code!r}") + if digits.startswith(("4", "8")) or digits.startswith("920"): + return f"bj.{digits}" + if digits.startswith(("6", "9")): + return f"sh.{digits}" + return f"sz.{digits}" def _from_bs_code(bs_code: str) -> str: - """Convert baostock code to 6-digit format.""" - return bs_code.split(".")[-1].zfill(6) + """Convert baostock code (sh.600000 / bj.830001) to bare 6 digits.""" + return str(bs_code).split(".")[-1].zfill(6) + + +def _as_date(value) -> pd.Timestamp: + """Parse a baostock date string; empty/invalid values become NaT.""" + if value is None: + return pd.NaT + text = str(value).strip() + if not text: + return pd.NaT + return pd.to_datetime(text, errors="coerce") + + +def _as_float(value) -> float: + try: + number = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return float("nan") + return number if math.isfinite(number) else float("nan") + + +def _empty_prices() -> pd.DataFrame: + index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + return pd.DataFrame(index=index, columns=_PRICE_COLUMNS) + + +def _empty_financials() -> pd.DataFrame: + index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + return pd.DataFrame(index=index, columns=_FINANCIAL_COLUMNS) + + +def _empty_st_timeseries() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.DataFrame(columns=_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS) class BaostockDataProvider(DataProvider): @@ -42,16 +327,202 @@ class BaostockDataProvider(DataProvider): - CSI 300 benchmark returns - Permanent CSV caching (historical data is immutable) - First run ~60-120s for full stock universe, subsequent runs <1s from cache + + ``st_available`` is True when the daily ``isST`` column produced at least + one ST episode; the episode table is derived conservatively (see + :meth:`get_st_timeseries`) and no ``is_st`` metadata column is fabricated. """ - def __init__(self, cache_enabled: bool = True): + price_adjustment = _PRICE_ADJUSTMENT + adjusted_price_basis = _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS + #: Sessions can be appended to the parquet/CSV daily cache via + #: :meth:`update`; universe/range changes fall back to a full fetch. + supports_incremental = True + + def __init__(self, cache_enabled: bool = True, max_retries: int = 2, + retry_backoff: float = 0.5, adjustment: str = "hfq"): self._cache_enabled = cache_enabled + self.max_retries = max(1, int(max_retries)) + self.retry_backoff = max(0.0, float(retry_backoff)) + mode = str(adjustment or "hfq").strip().lower() + if mode not in {"hfq", "raw"}: + raise ValueError( + f"adjustment must be 'hfq' (raw + derived divisor) or 'raw' " + f"(raw only, adj_factor=1); got {adjustment!r}" + ) + #: "hfq" = fetch raw + hfq and derive the divisor (research series is + #: hfq, preserving prior returns); "raw" = raw only with adj_factor=1 + #: (research series is raw; adjustment_factor_available is False). + self.adjustment_mode = mode + self.adjustment_factor_available = mode == "hfq" CACHE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) self._bs = None + #: True only after a non-empty ST episode table was derived; False when + #: the source omitted ``isST`` or no sample day was flagged ST. + self.st_available = False + #: Derived ST episode table (``None`` = not resolved yet, so a later + #: ``get_prices`` can still populate it). Empty means "resolved: no + #: ST evidence". + self._st_timeseries: pd.DataFrame | None = None + #: Last full daily panel fetched by this instance (cache key, frame). + #: The pre-price ST resolution and the later ``get_prices`` share one + #: fetch through it even when the provider cache is disabled. + self._last_daily_panel: tuple[str, pd.DataFrame] | None = None + # Universe sample pinned by `cache_universe()` so the pipeline cache + # key and the actual fetch use the *same* symbols even if the + # underlying stock list changes between resolution and fetch. + self._pinned_range: tuple[str, str] | None = None + self._pinned_price_codes: list[str] | None = None + self._pinned_financial_codes: list[str] | None = None + #: Completion marker/provenance of the loaded panel (D32). + self._data_status: dict = {} + #: Panel kept when an incremental update is incomplete: the pipeline + #: continues on the last complete data (reported as stale) instead of + #: re-issuing the same partial full-range fetch. + self._fallback_panel: pd.DataFrame | None = None + self._fallback_range: tuple[str, str] | None = None + #: Sidecar of the latest incremental attempt (for data_status). + self._last_status_path: Path | None = None + + #: Corporate-action feed (``query_dividend_data``). Fetched lazily; + #: ``corporate_actions_available`` is True only after at least one + #: successful query. ``corporate_action_codes`` optionally restricts + #: the (per-symbol, per-year) fetch; None means the same sample the + #: price fetch would use. + self.corporate_action_codes: list[str] | None = None + self._corporate_actions: pd.DataFrame | None = None + self._corporate_actions_key: tuple[str, str] | None = None + self.corporate_actions_available = False + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Cache identity / versioning (D12/D13) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _cache_version() -> str: + """Cache format version including the global data-schema generation.""" + from quant_platform.data.providers.base import schema_version + + return f"{_CACHE_VERSION}-s{schema_version()}" + + def cache_identity(self) -> dict: + return { + "provider": "baostock", + "adjustment": _PRICE_ADJUSTMENT, + "adjusted_price_basis": ( + _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS + if self.adjustment_mode == "hfq" else "raw" + ), + "adjustment_mode": self.adjustment_mode, + "cache_version": self._cache_version(), + "cache_enabled": bool(self._cache_enabled), + "synthetic": False, + } + + def data_status(self) -> dict: + """Completion marker of the loaded daily panel (D32). + + A partial incremental attempt never touches the data file or its + manifest; its ``incomplete`` flag lives in a sidecar, surfaced here + when it refers to the same completion marker. + """ + status = dict(self._data_status) + if self._last_status_path is not None: + sidecar = read_incremental_status(self._last_status_path) + if ( + sidecar + and sidecar.get("incomplete") + and str(sidecar.get("last_complete_date")) + == str(status.get("last_complete_date")) + ): + status["incomplete"] = True + status["reason"] = sidecar.get("reason") + status["last_incremental_attempt"] = sidecar + return status + + @staticmethod + def _normalise_range( + start_date, end_date, + ) -> tuple[str, str]: + """Canonical YYYY-MM-DD pair for pin matching (accepts compact ISO).""" + + def _one(value) -> str: + if value is None: + return "" + try: + return pd.Timestamp(value).date().isoformat() + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return str(value) + + return _one(start_date), _one(end_date) + + def cache_universe( + self, + *, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + n_symbols: int | None = None, + ) -> list[str] | None: + """The exact symbol set ``get_prices``/``get_financials`` will fetch. + + ``get_prices`` always samples ``_MAJOR_LIST_SIZE`` stocks (it does not + consult ``universe.n_stocks``) and ``get_financials`` samples 100; + both are pinned here so the pipeline cache key describes the panel + that is actually fetched. Returns ``None`` when the real universe is + unavailable: a fallback-pool sample cannot be attested, so the caller + must not cache the run. + """ + records = self._get_universe_records() + if records is None: + logger.warning( + "Stock universe unavailable; the baostock data stage cannot " + "be cached for this run" + ) + return None + universe = self._records_for_range(records, start_date, end_date) + price_codes = _stratified_sample(universe, _MAJOR_LIST_SIZE) + financial_codes = _stratified_sample(universe, 100) + pinned_range = self._normalise_range(start_date, end_date) + if ( + pinned_range != self._pinned_range + or price_codes != self._pinned_price_codes + ): + # A re-pin describes a different panel; episodes derived from the + # previous range must not leak into it. + self._st_timeseries = None + self.st_available = False + self._pinned_range = pinned_range + self._pinned_price_codes = price_codes + self._pinned_financial_codes = financial_codes + return sorted(set(price_codes) | set(financial_codes)) + + def _pinned_codes( + self, start_date: str, end_date: str, *, financial: bool, + ) -> list[str] | None: + """Codes pinned for this exact range (see :meth:`cache_universe`).""" + if self._pinned_range != self._normalise_range(start_date, end_date): + return None + if financial: + return self._pinned_financial_codes + return self._pinned_price_codes + + def _fallback_for( + self, start_date: str, end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """The last complete panel kept after an incomplete update, if any.""" + if self._fallback_panel is None or self._fallback_range is None: + return None + if self._fallback_range != self._normalise_range(start_date, end_date): + return None + return self._fallback_panel + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Session helpers + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _login(self): - import baostock as bs if self._bs is None: + import baostock as bs lg = bs.login() if lg.error_code != "0": raise RuntimeError(f"baostock login failed: {lg.error_msg}") @@ -62,137 +533,556 @@ def _logout(self): self._bs.logout() self._bs = None + def _call_with_retries(self, what: str, func, *args, **kwargs): + """Run one baostock call with bounded retries/backoff.""" + last_exc: Exception | None = None + for attempt in range(self.max_retries): + try: + return func(*args, **kwargs) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - baostock raises generic errors + last_exc = exc + if attempt + 1 < self.max_retries: + delay = self.retry_backoff * (2 ** attempt) + logger.warning( + "%s failed (attempt %d/%d): %s; retrying in %.1fs", + what, attempt + 1, self.max_retries, exc, delay, + ) + if delay > 0: + time.sleep(delay) + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + f"{what} failed after {self.max_retries} attempt(s): {last_exc}" + ) from last_exc + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Generic cache + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + def _cache_path(self, key: str) -> Path: return CACHE_DIR / f"{key}.parquet" + @staticmethod + def _key_adjustment(key: str) -> str: + """Basis of the data stored under this cache key. + + ``_adj1`` files hold the 后复权 series (hfq); ``_adj3`` files hold raw + prices. The manifest records the file's own basis so a raw and an + adjusted panel can never be confused even if their keys collide. + """ + if "_adj1" in key: + return _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS + if "_adj3" in key: + return "raw" + return "n/a" + + def _manifest_valid(self, key: str) -> bool: + expected_adjustment = self._key_adjustment(key) + return cache_manifest_matches( + self._cache_path(key), + adjustment=( + None if expected_adjustment == "n/a" else expected_adjustment + ), + cache_version=self._cache_version(), + key=key, + ) + + def _write_manifest(self, key: str, extra: dict | None = None) -> None: + payload = {"key": key} + if extra: + payload.update(extra) + write_cache_manifest( + self._cache_path(key), + provider="baostock", + adjustment=self._key_adjustment(key), + cache_version=self._cache_version(), + extra=payload, + ) + + def _discard_cache(self, key: str) -> None: + if self._last_daily_panel is not None and self._last_daily_panel[0] == key: + # A panel that failed validation must not be replayed from the + # in-memory reuse slot either (e.g. an unusable hfq divisor). + self._last_daily_panel = None + base = self._cache_path(key) + for path in ( + base, + base.with_suffix(".csv"), + base.with_name(f"{base.name}.manifest.json"), + ): + try: + path.unlink(missing_ok=True) + except OSError: + pass + def _load_cache(self, key: str) -> pd.DataFrame | None: if not self._cache_enabled: return None - # Try parquet first path = self._cache_path(key) - if path.exists(): - try: - return pd.read_parquet(path) - except Exception: - pass - # Fallback to CSV csv_path = path.with_suffix(".csv") - if csv_path.exists(): + if not path.exists() and not csv_path.exists(): + return None + if not self._manifest_valid(key): + logger.info( + "Ignoring cache %s: missing/stale version manifest " + "(schema or adjustment changed); refetching", key, + ) + self._discard_cache(key) + return None + # Usually exactly one format exists (writes remove the twin). If a + # Windows sharing violation prevented removing the old parquet after + # a CSV fallback write, serve the *newer* file rather than the stale + # parquet. Never fall back to the older twin on a read error. + source = path if path.exists() else csv_path + if path.exists() and csv_path.exists(): try: - return pd.read_csv(csv_path, index_col=[0, 1], parse_dates=[0]) - except Exception: - pass - return None + if csv_path.stat().st_mtime > path.stat().st_mtime: + source = csv_path + except OSError: + source = path + try: + if source == csv_path: + # The asset column must stay a zero-filled string: pandas + # would otherwise infer ``000001`` as integer ``1``, and every + # incremental merge / hfq reindex compares labels exactly. + # The ST side column is read as text too: a mixed "0"/"1"/blank + # column would otherwise infer float64 ("1.0"), and the episode + # derivation would silently lose every flag on reload. + return pd.read_csv( + source, + index_col=[0, 1], + parse_dates=[0], + dtype={1: str, _ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN: str}, + ) + return pd.read_parquet(source) + except Exception: + return None - def _save_cache(self, key: str, df: pd.DataFrame): + def _save_cache( + self, + key: str, + df: pd.DataFrame, + extra: dict | None = None, + *, + raise_errors: bool = False, + ): + """Atomically publish a cache panel + manifest. + + Publication happens under the cross-process provider lock; the data + file is replaced first and the manifest afterwards, so a crash can + never leave new rows advertised under an old completion marker. With + ``raise_errors`` (the incremental path) a publication failure + propagates so the caller does not report a marker advance. + """ if not self._cache_enabled: return + base = self._cache_path(key) + csv_path = base.with_suffix(".csv") + tmp = base.with_name(f"{base.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}") try: - df.to_parquet(self._cache_path(key), index=True) - except Exception: - # Fallback to CSV if parquet fails - csv_path = self._cache_path(key).with_suffix(".csv") - df.to_csv(csv_path, index=True) + try: + df.to_parquet(tmp, index=True) + with provider_cache_lock(base.parent) as locked: + if not locked: + raise TimeoutError( + f"timed out acquiring the provider cache lock " + f"for {base}" + ) from None + os.replace(tmp, base) + # The parquet file is authoritative; drop a stale CSV + # twin so a later parquet failure cannot resurrect older + # values. + csv_path.unlink(missing_ok=True) + self._write_manifest(key, extra=extra) + except Exception: + # Fallback to CSV if parquet fails. Write atomically too, and + # remove the stale parquet (see MINOR 7 / reviewer finding). + tmp.unlink(missing_ok=True) + csv_tmp = csv_path.with_name( + f"{csv_path.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}" + ) + df.to_csv(csv_tmp, index=True) + with provider_cache_lock(base.parent) as locked: + if not locked: + raise TimeoutError( + f"timed out acquiring the provider cache lock " + f"for {csv_path}" + ) from None + os.replace(csv_tmp, csv_path) + base.unlink(missing_ok=True) + self._write_manifest(key, extra=extra) + except Exception as exc: # a cache failure must not fail the research run + logger.warning( + "Could not cache baostock panel %s: %s", key, exc, + ) + for leftover in (tmp,): + try: + leftover.unlink(missing_ok=True) + except OSError: + pass + if raise_errors: + raise + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Daily prices + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _history_fields() -> str: + # ``isST`` rides along with the price query (a separate ST query would + # double the per-symbol network calls). It is parsed into the side + # column ``_is_st_observed`` and never enters the price contract. + return ("date,code,open,high,low,close,preclose,volume,amount," + "turn,pctChg,peTTM,pbMRQ,isST") + + @staticmethod + def _rows_to_frame(rows: list[list[str]], fields: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Build the daily frame, tolerating an interface without ``isST``. + + Older/stand-in baostock implementations may ignore the requested field + list and return the thirteen legacy columns. ``isST`` is the trailing + optional field, so short rows are padded with empty strings (i.e. + "no ST information") instead of poisoning the frame; wider rows are a + genuine contract violation and raise. + """ + width = len(fields) + if any(len(row) > width for row in rows): + raise RuntimeError( + "query_history_k_data_plus returned rows wider than the " + f"requested fields ({width})" + ) + if all(len(row) == width for row in rows): + return pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=fields) + padded = [list(row) + [""] * (width - len(row)) for row in rows] + return pd.DataFrame(padded, columns=fields) + + def _fetch_one_history(self, bs, bs_code: str, start_date: str, end_date: str, + adjustflag: str) -> list[list[str]]: + rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( + bs_code, + self._history_fields(), + start_date=start_date, + end_date=end_date, + frequency="d", + adjustflag=adjustflag, + ) + if rs.error_code != "0": + raise RuntimeError( + f"query_history_k_data_plus({bs_code}) error {rs.error_code}: " + f"{getattr(rs, 'error_msg', '')}" + ) + rows = [] + while rs.next(): + rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) + if rs.error_code != "0": + raise RuntimeError( + f"query_history_k_data_plus({bs_code}) failed mid-stream: " + f"{rs.error_code}" + ) + return rows + + @staticmethod + def _code_digest(codes: list[str]) -> str: + return hashlib.md5( + ",".join(sorted(str(code).zfill(6) for code in codes)).encode() + ).hexdigest()[:8] + + def _daily_cache_key( + self, codes: list[str], start_date: str, end_date: str, adjustflag: str, + ) -> str: + """Cache key for one (universe, range, adjustment) daily panel. + + The full sorted code list is hashed (not just its length), so any two + same-sized universes cannot share an entry, and ``adjustflag`` is part + of the key because hfq and raw panels must not collide. + """ + codes_digest = self._code_digest(codes) + return ( + f"daily_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_{end_date}_" + f"{len(codes)}_{codes_digest}_adj{adjustflag}" + ) def _fetch_daily_data( - self, codes: list[str], start_date: str, end_date: str + self, + codes: list[str], + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + adjustflag: str = "1", + *, + use_cache: bool = True, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Fetch daily OHLCV for multiple stocks from baostock.""" - cache_key = f"daily_{start_date}_{end_date}_{len(codes)}" - cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) - if cached is not None and len(cached) > 0: - logger.info("Cache hit: %s (%d rows)", cache_key, len(cached)) - return cached + """Fetch daily OHLCV for multiple stocks from baostock. + + Every failed symbol is retried; if any still fails the fetch raises + :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` and the cache is not written, so a + truncated panel can never be replayed as complete. + + ``use_cache=False`` is used for incremental *windows*: a window + response is only a candidate append until the completeness checks in + :meth:`update` pass, and caching it would make a retry for a fixed end + date reuse the same partial window forever. + """ + # The full sorted code list is hashed (not just its length) and the + # adjustment flag is part of the key; see `_daily_cache_key`. + cache_key = self._daily_cache_key( + codes, start_date, end_date, adjustflag, + ) + if use_cache: + cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) + if cached is not None and len(cached) > 0: + logger.info("Cache hit: %s (%d rows)", cache_key, len(cached)) + return cached + memo = self._last_daily_panel + if memo is not None and memo[0] == cache_key and len(memo[1]) > 0: + logger.info( + "In-memory daily panel hit: %s (%d rows)", + cache_key, len(memo[1]), + ) + return memo[1] self._login() - import baostock as bs + bs = self._bs - all_rows = [] - failed = 0 + all_rows: list[list[str]] = [] + failed: set[str] = set() t0 = time.time() for code in codes: bs_code = _to_bs_code(code) try: - rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( - bs_code, - "date,code,open,high,low,close,preclose,volume,amount,turn,pctChg,peTTM,pbMRQ", - start_date=start_date, - end_date=end_date, - frequency="d", - adjustflag="3", # Unadjusted + rows = self._call_with_retries( + f"history {bs_code}", + self._fetch_one_history, + bs, bs_code, start_date, end_date, adjustflag, ) - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): - all_rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) - except Exception: - failed += 1 + all_rows.extend(rows) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + failed.add(str(code).zfill(6)) elapsed = time.time() - t0 logger.info("Fetched %d rows for %d stocks in %.1fs (failed: %d)", - len(all_rows), len(codes), elapsed, failed) + len(all_rows), len(codes), elapsed, len(failed)) + + if failed: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Baostock price fetch incomplete: " + f"{len(failed)} symbol(s) failed after retries " + f"(e.g. {sorted(failed)[:10]})" + ) if not all_rows: - return pd.DataFrame() + return _empty_prices() - cols = ["date", "code", "open", "high", "low", "close", - "preclose", "volume", "amount", "turn", "pctChg", "peTTM", "pbMRQ"] - df = pd.DataFrame(all_rows, columns=cols) + fields = self._history_fields().split(",") + df = self._rows_to_frame(all_rows, fields) df["code"] = df["code"].apply(_from_bs_code) + # ``isST`` is auxiliary data, not a price column: keep it in the cached + # panel as ``_is_st_observed`` (so episodes survive a reload) and drop + # it from the public frame in `get_prices`. + if "isST" in df.columns: + df = df.rename(columns={"isST": _ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN}) + else: # defensive: _rows_to_frame always materialises the column + df[_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN] = "" + df[_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN] = ( + df[_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN].fillna("").astype(str).str.strip() + ) # Convert to numeric for c in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "preclose", "volume", "amount", "turn", "pctChg", "peTTM", "pbMRQ"]: df[c] = pd.to_numeric(df[c], errors="coerce") - # Rename to standard column names + # Rename to standard column names. Baostock's `turn` is a percent; + # the provider contract is a fraction. Volume is already in shares, + # amount in CNY. df.rename(columns={ "turn": "turnover", "pctChg": "pct_chg", "peTTM": "pe_ttm", "pbMRQ": "pb_mrq", }, inplace=True) + df["turnover"] = df["turnover"] / 100.0 + + # VWAP approximation from raw amount/volume (same units, so it needs + # no adjustment); only used for staleness detection by the pipeline. + df["vwap"] = df["amount"] / df["volume"] + df["vwap"] = df["vwap"].where(df["volume"] > 0) df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) df = df.set_index(["date", "code"]).sort_index() df.index.names = ["date", "asset"] df = df[df["close"] > 0] + df = canonicalize_panel_index(df) - self._save_cache(cache_key, df) + if df.empty: + return _empty_prices() + + if use_cache: + self._save_cache(cache_key, df) + self._last_daily_panel = (cache_key, df) return df - def _fetch_stock_list(self) -> list[str]: - """Get all A-share stock codes for a date range.""" - cache_key = "stock_list" - cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) - if cached is not None: - return cached["code"].tolist() + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Universe / metadata + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ - self._login() - import baostock as bs + def _universe_cache_path(self) -> Path: + return CACHE_DIR / _STOCK_BASIC_CACHE_FILE - # Get all stocks from CSI 300 + CSI 500 + CSI 1000 - all_codes = set() - for index_code in ["sh.000300", "sh.000905", "sh.000852"]: - try: - rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( - index_code, "date,code", - start_date="2024-01-01", end_date="2024-01-02", - frequency="d", adjustflag="3", - ) - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): - row = rs.get_row_data() - if len(row) > 1: - all_codes.add(_from_bs_code(row[1])) - except Exception: - pass + @staticmethod + def _normalise_universe_records(payload) -> list[dict] | None: + """Accept the current record format or the legacy bare-code list.""" + if not isinstance(payload, list) or not payload: + return None + records: list[dict] = [] + for item in payload: + if isinstance(item, str): + records.append({"code": _from_bs_code(item), "ipoDate": "", + "outDate": "", "status": ""}) + elif isinstance(item, dict) and item.get("code"): + record = dict(item) + record["code"] = _from_bs_code(str(record["code"])) + records.append(record) + return records or None + + def _load_stock_universe_cache(self) -> list[dict] | None: + if not self._cache_enabled: + return None + path = self._universe_cache_path() + if not path.exists(): + return None + if not cache_manifest_matches(path, cache_version=self._cache_version()): + logger.info( + "Ignoring stock universe cache %s: missing/stale version " + "manifest (schema changed); refetching", path.name, + ) + return None + if _UNIVERSE_CACHE_TTL_DAYS > 0: + age_seconds = time.time() - path.stat().st_mtime + if age_seconds > _UNIVERSE_CACHE_TTL_DAYS * 86400: + logger.info("Stock universe cache expired (%.1f days old)", age_seconds / 86400) + return None + try: + payload = json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8")) + except (OSError, ValueError): + return None + return self._normalise_universe_records(payload) + + def _save_stock_universe_cache(self, records: list[dict]) -> None: + if not self._cache_enabled: + return + try: + path = self._universe_cache_path() + tmp = path.with_name(f"{path.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}") + tmp.write_text(json.dumps(records), encoding="utf-8") + os.replace(tmp, path) + write_cache_manifest( + path, + provider="baostock", + adjustment="n/a", + cache_version=self._cache_version(), + extra={"universe_cache_version": _UNIVERSE_CACHE_VERSION}, + ) + except OSError as exc: + logger.warning("could not cache stock universe: %s", exc) + except Exception as exc: # manifest failure must not break the fetch + logger.warning("could not cache stock universe manifest: %s", exc) + + def _fetch_stock_basic_universe(self) -> list[dict] | None: + """All type=1 A-share records (listed, paused and delisted). + + Returns None when the call is unavailable (older baostock, network + failure, error result) so the caller can fall back to a static pool. + """ + try: + self._login() + bs = self._bs + rs = bs.query_stock_basic() + if rs.error_code != "0": + logger.warning("query_stock_basic returned error_code=%s", rs.error_code) + return None + fields = list(getattr(rs, "fields", None) or + ["code", "code_name", "ipoDate", "outDate", "type", "status"]) + i_code = fields.index("code") if "code" in fields else 0 + i_name = fields.index("code_name") if "code_name" in fields else 1 + i_ipo = fields.index("ipoDate") if "ipoDate" in fields else 2 + i_out = fields.index("outDate") if "outDate" in fields else 3 + i_type = fields.index("type") if "type" in fields else 4 + i_status = fields.index("status") if "status" in fields else 5 + records: list[dict] = [] + while rs.next(): + row = rs.get_row_data() + try: + # type=1 is a stock (indices are type=2). Status 0 means + # delisted and must stay in the universe for historical + # ranges -- filtering it out is survivorship bias. + if row[i_type] != "1": + continue + records.append({ + "code": _from_bs_code(row[i_code]), + "code_name": row[i_name] if i_name < len(row) else "", + "ipoDate": row[i_ipo] if i_ipo < len(row) else "", + "outDate": row[i_out] if i_out < len(row) else "", + "status": row[i_status] if i_status < len(row) else "", + }) + except (IndexError, TypeError): + continue + if rs.error_code != "0": + logger.warning("query_stock_basic failed mid-stream (%s)", rs.error_code) + return None + return records or None + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning("query_stock_basic unavailable (%s); using fallback pool", exc) + return None - # Fallback: use a predefined list of major stocks - if not all_codes: - all_codes = self._get_major_stocks() + def _get_universe_records(self) -> list[dict] | None: + records = self._load_stock_universe_cache() + if records is None: + records = self._fetch_stock_basic_universe() + if records: + self._save_stock_universe_cache(records) + return records + + @staticmethod + def _records_for_range( + records: list[dict], + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + ) -> list[str]: + """Codes whose [listing, delisting] window overlaps the range.""" + start = _as_date(start_date) if start_date else pd.NaT + end = _as_date(end_date) if end_date else pd.NaT + codes: list[str] = [] + for record in records: + ipo = _as_date(record.get("ipoDate")) + out = _as_date(record.get("outDate")) + if pd.notna(end) and pd.notna(ipo) and ipo > end: + continue + if pd.notna(start) and pd.notna(out) and out < start: + continue + codes.append(str(record["code"]).zfill(6)) + return codes - codes_list = sorted(all_codes) - self._save_cache(cache_key, pd.DataFrame({"code": codes_list})) - return codes_list + def _get_major_stocks_list( + self, + n: int = _MAJOR_LIST_SIZE, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + ) -> list[str]: + """Deterministic cross-board sample of up to ``n`` A-share stocks. + + Uses baostock's real security list (``query_stock_basic``) including + delisted names whose window overlaps the requested range, and falls + back to the static cross-exchange candidate pool when unavailable. + Unlike the old ``sorted(...)[:500]`` this never truncates to Shenzhen + main-board codes only. + """ + records = self._get_universe_records() + if records: + universe = self._records_for_range(records, start_date, end_date) + else: + logger.warning("stock universe unavailable; sampling the cross-exchange fallback pool") + universe = sorted(self._get_major_stocks()) + return _stratified_sample(universe, n) def _get_major_stocks(self) -> set: """Fallback: predefined list of ~500 major A-share stocks.""" @@ -211,184 +1101,1605 @@ def _get_major_stocks(self) -> set: codes.add(str(i).zfill(6)) return codes - def get_prices( - self, - start_date: str, - end_date: str, - fields: list[str] | None = None, - ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get daily price data for all available stocks.""" - codes = self._get_major_stocks_list() - df = self._fetch_daily_data(codes, start_date, end_date) - if df.empty: - return df + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # ST history (derived from the daily isST field) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _derive_st_episodes(panel: pd.DataFrame | None) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Derive conservative ST episodes from observed ``isST`` flags. + + Rules (also documented on :meth:`get_st_timeseries`): + + * an episode is a run of consecutive observed trading days whose flag + is ``"1"``; an unknown/blank flag breaks the run (nothing is + assumed about days without evidence); + * ``announce_date`` is the first day ST was observed -- baostock has no + earlier announcement date and none is inferred; + * ``end_date`` is the last ST day of the run, or the last sample day + when the sample ends while the stock is still ST; + * ``trigger_date`` equals ``announce_date`` (no fabricated lag). + """ + if ( + panel is None + or panel.empty + or _ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN not in panel.columns + ): + return _empty_st_timeseries() + flags = ( + panel[_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN] + .astype("string") + .str.strip() + # Defence in depth for numeric/CSV sources: a mixed flag column + # round-tripped through a float dtype becomes "1.0"/"0.0"; strip + # the trailing zeros so those days are still recognised. + .str.replace(r"\.0+$", "", regex=True) + ) + known = flags.isin(["0", "1"]).to_numpy(dtype=bool) + if not bool(known.any()): + return _empty_st_timeseries() + is_st = (flags == "1").fillna(False).to_numpy(dtype=bool) + # 0 = observed not-ST, 1 = observed ST, 2 = unknown (breaks a run). + state = np.full(len(flags), 2, dtype=np.int8) + state[known] = is_st[known].astype(np.int8) + frame = pd.DataFrame({ + "asset": panel.index.get_level_values("asset").astype(str), + "date": pd.DatetimeIndex(panel.index.get_level_values("date")), + "state": state, + }).sort_values(["asset", "date"], kind="stable") + same_asset = frame["asset"].eq(frame["asset"].shift()) + state_change = frame["state"].ne(frame["state"].shift()) + frame["run"] = (~same_asset | state_change).cumsum() + st_runs = frame[frame["state"] == 1] + if st_runs.empty: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + episodes = st_runs.groupby("run", sort=True).agg( + asset=("asset", "first"), + announce_date=("date", "min"), + end_date=("date", "max"), + ).reset_index(drop=True) + episodes["trigger_date"] = episodes["announce_date"] + episodes["is_st"] = True + return episodes[_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS] + + def _ingest_st_episodes(self, panel: pd.DataFrame | None) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Replace the resolved episode table from a full daily panel.""" + episodes = self._derive_st_episodes(panel) + self._st_timeseries = episodes + self.st_available = not episodes.empty + if episodes.empty: + logger.info("Baostock ST history: no ST episodes in the sample") + else: + logger.info("Baostock ST history: %d episode(s)", len(episodes)) + return episodes + + def _resolve_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Resolve the episode table lazily (from a pinned range or prices). + + The pipeline loads point-in-time data *before* it asks for prices, so + on the standard pinned-universe path this fetches the same raw daily + panel `get_prices` will use -- the later call is a cache hit, so the + network request count is unchanged. Without a pinned range and without + a prior `get_prices` call there is no honest date range to ask for, so + the table stays empty rather than guessing one. + """ + if self._st_timeseries is not None: + return self._st_timeseries + if self._pinned_range is None or not self._pinned_price_codes: + self._st_timeseries = _empty_st_timeseries() + self.st_available = False + return self._st_timeseries + start, end = self._pinned_range + try: + panel = self._fetch_daily_data( + self._pinned_price_codes, start, end, adjustflag="3", + ) + except Exception as exc: # ST history must never abort a run + logger.warning( + "Baostock ST history unavailable (%s); reporting no ST " + "history for this call (the next request retries)", exc, + ) + # Deliberately not memoised: a transient failure must not be + # latched as "this provider has no ST history"; the next call + # (e.g. the pipeline's follow-up load) gets another chance. + return _empty_st_timeseries() + return self._ingest_st_episodes(panel) - # Add adj_factor (computed from close/preclose chain) - if "adj_factor" not in df.columns: - df["adj_factor"] = 1.0 # Unadjusted = 1.0 + def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Get stock metadata, including delisted names with ``outDate``. + + ``is_st`` is intentionally absent: a whole-sample boolean would silently + disable per-date ST screening. ST information is exposed as the + episode table from :meth:`get_st_timeseries`, and + ``attrs["st_available"]`` is True exactly when that table is non-empty. + """ + cache_key = f"metadata_{self._cache_version()}" + st_available = not self._resolve_st_timeseries().empty + cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) + if cached is not None: + cached.attrs["st_available"] = st_available + return cached - return df + records = self._get_universe_records() + rows = [] + if records: + for record in records: + rows.append({ + "asset": str(record["code"]).zfill(6), + "listing_date": _as_date(record.get("ipoDate")), + "delisting_date": _as_date(record.get("outDate")), + }) + else: + logger.warning( + "query_stock_basic unavailable: metadata falls back to a " + "current-code sample with an assumed listing date; delisting " + "dates are unknown and ST screening is unavailable" + ) + rows = [{ + "asset": code, + "listing_date": pd.Timestamp("1990-01-01"), + "delisting_date": pd.NaT, + } for code in self._get_major_stocks_list()] - def _get_major_stocks_list(self) -> list[str]: - """Get list of ~500 major stocks to track.""" - return sorted(self._get_major_stocks())[:500] + if not rows: + empty = pd.DataFrame( + columns=["sector", "market_cap_group", "listing_date", "delisting_date"], + index=pd.Index([], name="asset"), + ) + empty.attrs["st_available"] = st_available + return empty - def get_financials( + df = pd.DataFrame(rows).set_index("asset") + df.index.name = "asset" + df["market_cap_group"] = "mid" # Placeholder; not used by the pipeline + + # Get real industry data + df["sector"] = "Unknown" + try: + industry_map = self._get_industry_map() + df["sector"] = df.index.map(lambda x: industry_map.get(x, "Unknown")) + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning("industry map unavailable: %s", exc) + + result = df[["sector", "market_cap_group", "listing_date", "delisting_date"]] + result.attrs["st_available"] = st_available + self._save_cache(cache_key, result) + return result + + def get_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """ST episodes derived from the daily ``isST`` observations. + + Derivation (point-in-time, no fabrication): + + * for each asset, consecutive observed trading days with + ``isST == "1"`` form one episode; a blank/unknown flag breaks the + run because nothing is known about that day; + * ``announce_date`` is the first day ST was *observed* -- baostock + exposes no earlier announcement date, so nothing is inferred before + the fetched sample (conservative: a stock already ST on the sample's + first day is announced from that first day, not earlier); + * ``end_date`` is the run's last ST day; if the sample ends while the + stock is still ST, it is the sample's last day; + * ``trigger_date`` equals ``announce_date``; + * ``is_st`` is True. + + Returns the empty contract frame when the source did not return + ``isST`` (missing column or only empty values): no flag is fabricated. + """ + return self._resolve_st_timeseries().copy() + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Corporate actions (best effort) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_corporate_actions( self, start_date: str, end_date: str, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get quarterly financial data from baostock.""" - cache_key = f"fin_{start_date}_{end_date}" + """Cash dividends and bonus/transfer shares from ``query_dividend_data``. + + Baostock exposes dividends only per symbol and operating year, so the + fetch is inherently N-symbols x Y-years of calls: it uses the pinned + price sample when available (``cache_universe``), otherwise the same + stratified universe the price fetch would use, and callers can pin a + narrower list via ``corporate_action_codes``. ``dividOperateDate`` is + the ex-date, ``dividCashPsBeforeTax`` the pre-tax amount per share + (the engine withholds tax per its config) and + ``dividStocksPs + dividReserveToStockPs`` the bonus/transfer ratio + (``split_ratio = 1 + bonus``). A combined event becomes two rows. + + Best effort: per-symbol failures are logged and skipped; if every + query fails (baostock missing, login refused, network down) the + documented empty frame is returned and + ``corporate_actions_available`` stays False. Amounts are never + inferred or fabricated. + """ + start = pd.Timestamp(start_date).normalize() + end = pd.Timestamp(end_date).normalize() + key = self._normalise_range(start_date, end_date) + if self._corporate_actions is not None and self._corporate_actions_key == key: + frame = self._corporate_actions + mask = (frame["ex_date"] >= start) & (frame["ex_date"] <= end) + return frame.loc[mask].reset_index(drop=True).copy() + + try: + self._login() + except Exception as exc: # baostock not installed / login refused + logger.warning( + "Baostock unavailable for corporate actions: %s", exc, + ) + self.corporate_actions_available = False + self._corporate_actions = empty_corporate_actions() + self._corporate_actions_key = key + return empty_corporate_actions() + + bs = self._bs + codes = self.corporate_action_codes + if codes is None: + codes = self._pinned_codes(start_date, end_date, financial=False) + if codes is None: + codes = self._get_major_stocks_list( + start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, + ) + + records: list[dict] = [] + successes = 0 + queried = 0 + for code in codes: + bs_code = _to_bs_code(code) + for year in range(start.year, end.year + 1): + queried += 1 + try: + rs = self._call_with_retries( + f"query_dividend_data[{code}:{year}]", + bs.query_dividend_data, + code=bs_code, + year=str(year), + yearType="operate", + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - best effort feed + logger.warning( + "Baostock dividend query failed for %s/%d: %s", + code, year, exc, + ) + continue + if getattr(rs, "error_code", "0") != "0": + logger.warning( + "Baostock dividend query error for %s/%d: %s", + code, year, getattr(rs, "error_msg", ""), + ) + continue + successes += 1 + fields = list(getattr(rs, "fields", []) or []) + while rs.next(): + rec = dict(zip(fields, rs.get_row_data(), strict=False)) + records.extend( + self._dividend_records(rec, code), + ) + + if queried and successes == 0: + logger.warning( + "Baostock dividend queries all failed (%d call(s)); " + "corporate actions are unavailable", queried, + ) + self.corporate_actions_available = False + self._corporate_actions = empty_corporate_actions() + self._corporate_actions_key = key + return empty_corporate_actions() + + self.corporate_actions_available = True + if not records: + frame = empty_corporate_actions() + else: + frame = normalize_corporate_actions( + pd.DataFrame(records, columns=list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS)) + ) + mask = (frame["ex_date"] >= start) & (frame["ex_date"] <= end) + frame = frame.loc[mask].reset_index(drop=True) + self._corporate_actions = frame + self._corporate_actions_key = key + return frame.copy() + + @staticmethod + def _dividend_records(rec: dict, code: str) -> list[dict]: + """Contract rows for one Baostock dividend record (cash and/or split).""" + ex_date = _as_date(rec.get("dividOperateDate")) + if pd.isna(ex_date): + return [] + asset = normalize_symbol(_to_bs_code(code)) + cash = _as_float(rec.get("dividCashPsBeforeTax")) + if not math.isfinite(cash) or cash <= 0: + cash = _as_float(rec.get("dividCashPsAfterTax")) + cash = cash if math.isfinite(cash) and cash > 0 else 0.0 + bonus = 0.0 + for key in ("dividStocksPs", "dividReserveToStockPs"): + value = _as_float(rec.get(key)) + if math.isfinite(value) and value > 0: + bonus += value + rows: list[dict] = [] + if cash > 0: + rows.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "cash", + "cash_per_share": round(cash, 6), + "split_ratio": 1.0, + }) + if bonus > 0: + rows.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "split", + "cash_per_share": 0.0, + "split_ratio": round(1.0 + bonus, 6), + }) + return rows + + def _get_industry_map(self) -> dict[str, str]: + """Get industry classification for all stocks.""" + cache_key = f"industry_map_{self._cache_version()}" cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) if cached is not None: - return cached + return dict(zip(cached.index, cached["industry"], strict=False)) self._login() - import baostock as bs + bs = self._bs - codes = self._get_major_stocks_list()[:100] # Limit for speed - all_rows = [] + rs = bs.query_stock_industry() + rows = [] + while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): + rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) - for code in codes: - bs_code = _to_bs_code(code) - try: - rs = bs.query_profit_data(code=bs_code, year=2024, quarter=4) - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): - row = rs.get_row_data() - if row: - all_rows.append([code] + row) - except Exception: - continue + if not rows: + return {} - if not all_rows: - return pd.DataFrame() + df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=rs.fields) + df["code"] = df["code"].apply(_from_bs_code) + df = df.set_index("code") - # Build financial DataFrame - df = pd.DataFrame(all_rows) - # baostock financial columns vary, use what we get - if len(df.columns) >= 5: - df = df.rename(columns={0: "code"}) - df = df.set_index("code") - df.index.name = "asset" + # Extract industry code (e.g., "J66货币金融服务" -> "J66") + df["industry"] = df["industry"].apply( + lambda x: x[:3] if isinstance(x, str) and len(x) >= 3 else "Unknown") - self._save_cache(cache_key, df) - return df + self._save_cache(cache_key, df[["industry"]]) + return dict(zip(df.index, df["industry"], strict=False)) - def get_benchmark( + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Prices (public) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _project_price_fields(df: pd.DataFrame, fields: list[str] | None) -> pd.DataFrame: + if not fields: + return df + unknown = [col for col in fields if col not in df.columns] + if unknown: + raise ValueError(f"Unknown price fields: {unknown}") + return df[list(fields)] + + def get_prices( self, start_date: str, end_date: str, - ) -> pd.Series: - """Get CSI 300 daily returns.""" - cache_key = f"bench_{start_date}_{end_date}" - cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) - if cached is not None and not cached.empty: - return cached.iloc[:, 0] - - self._login() - import baostock as bs + fields: list[str] | None = None, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Get daily price data for a range-overlapping stock sample. + + The OHLCV path is fetched raw (``adjustflag="3"``). In the default + ``hfq`` mode the 后复权 series is fetched too and the divisor + ``adj_factor = raw_close / hfq_close`` is attached, so + ``close / adj_factor`` is the hfq series research used before the + explicit basis contract. In ``raw`` mode no factor is available + (``adj_factor=1``) and the research series is honestly raw. + """ + codes = self._pinned_codes( + start_date, end_date, financial=False, + ) + if codes is None: + codes = self._get_major_stocks_list( + start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, + ) + fallback = self._fallback_for(start_date, end_date) + if fallback is not None: + raw = fallback.loc[ + pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) + ].copy() + else: + raw = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_date, end_date, adjustflag="3", + ) + + if not raw.empty: + # Side channel: the same daily response also carries ``isST``; + # derive the episode table here (cache hits included) before the + # auxiliary column is dropped from the public price frame. + self._ingest_st_episodes(raw) + + if raw.empty: + empty = self._project_price_fields(raw, fields) + elif self.adjustment_mode == "raw": + df = raw.copy() + df["adj_factor"] = 1.0 + empty = None + elif "adj_factor" in raw.columns and raw["adj_factor"].notna().any(): + # An incrementally published panel already carries the divisor; + # refetching the whole hfq history would defeat the append. + df = raw.copy() + df["adj_factor"] = ( + pd.to_numeric(df["adj_factor"], errors="coerce") + .groupby(level="asset").ffill() + ) + missing_factor = df["close"].notna() & df["adj_factor"].isna() + if bool(missing_factor.any()): + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Baostock cached panel is missing adjustment divisors " + f"for {int(missing_factor.sum())} priced row(s); " + "refusing to guess adj_factor=1.0" + ) + empty = None + else: + hfq_end = end_date + if fallback is not None: + # Never issue a network fetch past the complete cached range. + last = panel_last_date(raw) + hfq_end = str(last.date()) if last is not None else end_date + hfq_key = self._daily_cache_key( + codes, start_date, hfq_end, "1", + ) + hfq = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_date, hfq_end, adjustflag="1", + ) + try: + df = self._merge_adjustment_divisor(raw, hfq) + except DataFetchIncompleteError: + # The hfq panel was persisted before validation; a panel that + # cannot produce a divisor for every raw close is unusable and + # must not be replayed on retries (it would wedge the append + # path too, which derives cached-range divisors from it). + self._discard_cache(hfq_key) + raise + empty = None + + if empty is not None: + empty.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": "raw", + "adjusted_price_basis": "raw", + "adjustment_factor_available": False, + }) + return empty + + # Completion marker (D32): a full fetch that published a new raw + # cache records ``last_complete_date`` so the *next* run can append + # instead of refetching. A legacy cache without a marker is left + # alone here; `update()` rejects it and performs a full refetch. + if fallback is None and not raw.empty: + key3 = self._daily_cache_key(codes, start_date, end_date, "3") + manifest = read_cache_manifest(self._cache_path(key3)) or {} + marker = manifest.get("last_complete_date") + if not marker: + panel_end = panel_last_date(raw) + marker, incomplete = complete_panel_marker( + raw, + delisted=self._delisted_from_records( + self._get_universe_records(), panel_end, + ), + ) + extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=marker, + requested_end=end_date, + incomplete=incomplete, + source="full_fetch", + ) + self._write_marker(key3, extra) + manifest = {**manifest, **extra} + marker = extra["last_complete_date"] + self._data_status = { + "last_complete_date": marker, + "requested_end": manifest.get("end_date") or end_date, + "updated_at": manifest.get("updated_at"), + "data_age_days": manifest.get("data_age_days"), + "incomplete": bool(manifest.get("incomplete", False)), + "source": "cache_manifest", + } + # A failed append attempt leaves its flag in a sidecar; surface + # it when it refers to the same marker (restarted processes). + sidecar = read_incremental_status(self._cache_path(key3)) + if ( + sidecar + and sidecar.get("incomplete") + and str(sidecar.get("last_complete_date")) == str(marker) + ): + self._data_status["incomplete"] = True + self._data_status["reason"] = sidecar.get("reason") + self._last_status_path = self._cache_path(key3) + + if _ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN in df.columns: + df = df.drop(columns=[_ST_OBSERVED_COLUMN]) + df = self._project_price_fields(df, fields) + df.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": "raw", + "adjusted_price_basis": ( + _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS + if self.adjustment_mode == "hfq" else "raw" + ), + "adjustment_factor_available": self.adjustment_factor_available, + }) + return df - rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( - "sh.000300", - "date,close,preclose,pctChg", - start_date=start_date, - end_date=end_date, - frequency="d", - adjustflag="1", + @staticmethod + def _merge_adjustment_divisor( + raw: pd.DataFrame, hfq: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Attach ``adj_factor = raw_close / hfq_close`` to the raw panel. + + Baostock's hfq series is ``raw * cumulative_factor``, so this ratio is + exactly the divisor the pipeline needs (``close / adj_factor`` is + hfq). A ratio is only meaningful where both closes are present; short + gaps are carried across per asset (corporate-action factors are + piecewise constant between actions). If a row still has a raw close + but no derivable factor the fetch fails closed: silently assuming 1.0 + would fabricate a corporate-action return in the research series. + """ + if hfq is None or hfq.empty: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Baostock hfq fetch returned no data; cannot derive the " + "adjustment divisor. Use adjustment='raw' to run unadjusted." + ) + raw_close = pd.to_numeric(raw["close"], errors="coerce") + hfq_close = pd.to_numeric( + hfq["close"].reindex(raw.index), errors="coerce", + ) + factor = raw_close / hfq_close + valid = np.isfinite(factor) & (factor > 0) + factor = factor.where(valid) + factor = factor.groupby(level="asset").ffill() + factor = factor.groupby(level="asset").bfill() + bad = raw_close.notna() & factor.isna() + if bool(bad.any()): + sample = [ + f"{asset}@{str(date)[:10]}" + for date, asset in bad[bad].index[:5] + ] + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Baostock adjustment divisor unavailable for rows that carry " + f"a raw close ({int(bad.sum())} row(s), e.g. {sample}); " + "refusing to guess adj_factor=1.0" + ) + merged = raw.copy() + merged["adj_factor"] = factor.astype(float) + return merged + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Financials (public) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _quarter_end(year: int, quarter: int) -> pd.Timestamp: + return pd.Timestamp( + year=year, + month={1: 3, 2: 6, 3: 9, 4: 12}[quarter], + day={1: 31, 2: 30, 3: 30, 4: 31}[quarter], ) + @classmethod + def _quarters_between(cls, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp) -> list[tuple[int, int]]: + """Quarters whose report can be published inside/around the range. + + Includes the previous year so YoY asset growth can be computed. + """ + quarters = [] + for year in range(start.year - 1, end.year + 1): + for quarter in (1, 2, 3, 4): + qend = cls._quarter_end(year, quarter) + if qend >= start - pd.Timedelta(days=400) and qend <= end: + quarters.append((year, quarter)) + return quarters + + def _profit_row(self, bs, bs_code: str, year: int, quarter: int) -> dict | None: + rs = bs.query_profit_data(code=bs_code, year=year, quarter=quarter) + if rs.error_code != "0": + raise RuntimeError( + f"query_profit_data({bs_code}, {year}Q{quarter}) error " + f"{rs.error_code}: {getattr(rs, 'error_msg', '')}" + ) rows = [] - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): + while rs.next(): rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) - if not rows: - return pd.Series(dtype=float) - - df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "close", "preclose", "pctChg"]) - df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) - df["pctChg"] = pd.to_numeric(df["pctChg"], errors="coerce") / 100 - df = df.set_index("date")["pctChg"].dropna() - - self._save_cache(cache_key, df.to_frame("benchmark_return")) - return df + return None + fields = list(getattr(rs, "fields", None) or []) + row = rows[0] + if not fields or len(fields) != len(row): + fields = ["code", "pubDate", "statDate", "roeAvg", "npMargin", + "gpMargin", "netProfit", "epsTTM", "MBRevenue", + "totalShare", "liqaShare"][:len(row)] + return dict(zip(fields, row, strict=False)) + + def _balance_row(self, bs, bs_code: str, year: int, quarter: int) -> dict | None: + try: + rs = bs.query_balance_data(code=bs_code, year=year, quarter=quarter) + if rs.error_code != "0": + return None + rows = [] + while rs.next(): + rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) + if not rows: + return None + fields = list(getattr(rs, "fields", None) or []) + row = rows[0] + if not fields or len(fields) != len(row): + fields = ["code", "pubDate", "statDate", "liabilityToAsset", + "assetToEquity"][:len(row)] + return dict(zip(fields, row, strict=False)) + except Exception as exc: # balance data is optional for the panel + logger.debug("balance data unavailable for %s %sQ%s: %s", + bs_code, year, quarter, exc) + return None - def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get stock metadata (sector info from baostock).""" - cache_key = "metadata" + def get_financials( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Quarterly fundamentals as a PIT ``(date, asset)`` panel. + + Each report is keyed to the first trading day on/after its + publication date (``pubDate``). A report whose ``pubDate`` is + missing or unparseable is dropped with a warning -- the period end is + not a visibility date, and using it would leak figures before they + were announced. If no report row has a usable publication date the + fetch raises :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` rather than returning + a panel built from fabricated dates. Columns: market_cap, + total_assets, net_assets, revenue, net_profit, roe, pb_ratio, + pe_ratio, asset_growth, publish_date. ``asset_growth`` is the + year-over-year change in total assets against the same fiscal quarter + one year earlier, computed on the fetched report sequence before + undated rows are dropped. No backward fill. + """ + start = pd.Timestamp(start_date) + end = pd.Timestamp(end_date) + + codes = self._pinned_codes( + start_date, end_date, financial=True, + ) + if codes is None: + codes = self._get_major_stocks_list( + n=100, start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, + ) + if not codes: + return _empty_financials() + + codes_digest = hashlib.md5( + ",".join(sorted(codes)).encode() + ).hexdigest()[:8] + cache_key = ( + f"fin_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_{end_date}_" + f"{len(codes)}_{codes_digest}_adj3" + ) cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) - if cached is not None: + if cached is not None and len(cached) > 0: return cached - self._login() - import baostock as bs + if self._fallback_for(start_date, end_date) is not None: + # An incomplete incremental update keeps the last complete + # financial panel rather than re-issuing a fetch that may fail + # the same way the price update did. + fallback_fin = self._load_fallback_financials( + codes, start_date, end_date, + ) + if fallback_fin is not None: + return fallback_fin + + # Raw (unadjusted) prices supply the price leg of market cap and the + # trading calendar used to map publication dates. After an incomplete + # incremental update the last complete panel is used instead of + # re-issuing the same partial full-range fetch. + fallback = self._fallback_for(start_date, end_date) + if fallback is not None: + raw_prices = fallback.loc[ + pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) + ].copy() + else: + raw_prices = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_date, end_date, adjustflag="3", + ) + if raw_prices.empty: + return _empty_financials() + raw_close = raw_prices["close"].unstack("asset") + pb_panel = ( + raw_prices["pb_mrq"].unstack("asset") + if "pb_mrq" in raw_prices.columns else None + ) + pe_panel = ( + raw_prices["pe_ttm"].unstack("asset") + if "pe_ttm" in raw_prices.columns else None + ) + trading_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + raw_prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + if len(trading_dates) == 0: + return _empty_financials() - codes = self._get_major_stocks_list()[:500] - rows = [] + self._login() + bs = self._bs + quarters = self._quarters_between(start, end) + + records: list[dict] = [] + failed: set[str] = set() + report_rows = 0 + dropped_no_pub = 0 + dropped_after_end = 0 + # total_assets per (asset, fiscal year, quarter) from every fetched + # report, including rows later dropped from the panel. asset_growth + # is a same-quarter-last-year ratio computed from this basis, so + # dropping an undated report cannot shift the YoY window. + growth_assets: dict[tuple[str, int, int], float] = {} for code in codes: bs_code = _to_bs_code(code) - try: - rs = bs.query_stock_basic(code=bs_code) - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): - row = rs.get_row_data() - if row: - rows.append([code] + list(row[1:])) - except Exception: - continue + code_failed = False + for year, quarter in quarters: + try: + profit = self._call_with_retries( + f"profit {bs_code} {year}Q{quarter}", + self._profit_row, + bs, bs_code, year, quarter, + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + code_failed = True + break + if profit is None: + continue + report_rows += 1 + + # Balances are fetched before the pubDate check on purpose: a + # report dropped for a missing pubDate still anchors next + # year's same-quarter asset growth. + balance = self._balance_row(bs, bs_code, year, quarter) + stat_date = _as_date(profit.get("statDate")) + pub_date = _as_date(profit.get("pubDate")) + roe_pct = _as_float(profit.get("roeAvg")) + net_profit = _as_float(profit.get("netProfit")) + revenue = _as_float(profit.get("MBRevenue")) + total_share = _as_float(profit.get("totalShare")) + + net_assets = float("nan") + if math.isfinite(roe_pct) and roe_pct != 0.0: + net_assets = net_profit / (roe_pct / 100.0) + total_assets = float("nan") + if balance is not None: + asset_to_equity = _as_float(balance.get("assetToEquity")) + if math.isfinite(asset_to_equity) and math.isfinite(net_assets): + total_assets = net_assets * asset_to_equity + growth_assets[(code, year, quarter)] = total_assets + + if pd.isna(pub_date): + # No publication date -> no honest visibility date. The + # fiscal period end is NOT a substitute: reports are + # usually announced weeks later, so keying the row to the + # first trading day after the period end would expose + # figures before they existed (look-ahead). + dropped_no_pub += 1 + logger.debug( + "Report %s %sQ%s has no usable pubDate; dropping it " + "instead of fabricating a visibility date " + "(statDate=%s)", + bs_code, year, quarter, + stat_date.date() if pd.notna(stat_date) else "n/a", + ) + continue + + pos = trading_dates.searchsorted(pub_date, side="left") + if pos >= len(trading_dates): + dropped_after_end += 1 + continue # published after the sample ends + visible_date = trading_dates[pos] + + market_cap = float("nan") + if math.isfinite(total_share): + try: + price = float(raw_close.at[visible_date, code]) + if math.isfinite(price) and price > 0: + market_cap = total_share * price + except KeyError: + pass + + def _panel_value(panel, column, code=code, visible_date=visible_date): + if panel is None or code not in panel.columns: + return float("nan") + try: + value = float(panel.at[visible_date, code]) + except KeyError: + return float("nan") + return value if math.isfinite(value) else float("nan") + + records.append({ + "date": visible_date, + "asset": code, + "stat_date": stat_date, + "_year": year, + "_quarter": quarter, + "market_cap": market_cap, + "total_assets": total_assets, + "net_assets": net_assets, + "revenue": revenue, + "net_profit": net_profit, + "roe": roe_pct / 100.0 if math.isfinite(roe_pct) else float("nan"), + "pb_ratio": _panel_value(pb_panel, "pb_mrq"), + "pe_ratio": _panel_value(pe_panel, "pe_ttm"), + "publish_date": pub_date, + }) + if code_failed: + failed.add(str(code).zfill(6)) + + if dropped_no_pub: + logger.warning( + "baostock: dropped %d/%d financial rows without a usable " + "publish date", + dropped_no_pub, report_rows, + ) + if failed: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Baostock financial fetch incomplete: " + f"{len(failed)} symbol(s) failed after retries " + f"(e.g. {sorted(failed)[:10]})" + ) + if not records and report_rows and dropped_no_pub == report_rows: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + f"Baostock financials: none of the {report_rows} report " + "row(s) has a usable pubDate; refusing to fabricate " + "visibility dates from fiscal period ends, so no " + "point-in-time panel can be built" + ) + if dropped_after_end and not records: + logger.warning( + "baostock: %d financial row(s) were published after the " + "sample end; returning an empty panel", + dropped_after_end, + ) + if not records: + return _empty_financials() + + # YoY asset growth against the same fiscal quarter one year earlier, + # resolved on the full fetched report sequence. Doing this before the + # old positional pct_change(4) means a dropped undated report cannot + # make a later quarter compare against the wrong quarter. + for record in records: + prior_assets = growth_assets.get( + ( + record["asset"], + record.pop("_year") - 1, + record.pop("_quarter"), + ), + float("nan"), + ) + total_assets = record["total_assets"] + growth = float("nan") + if ( + math.isfinite(total_assets) + and math.isfinite(prior_assets) + and prior_assets != 0.0 + ): + growth = total_assets / prior_assets - 1.0 + record["asset_growth"] = growth + + df = pd.DataFrame(records) + df = df.sort_values(["asset", "stat_date"]) + df = df.drop(columns=["stat_date"]) + df = df.drop_duplicates(subset=["date", "asset"], keep="last") + df = df.set_index(["date", "asset"]).sort_index() + + # Forward-fill to the daily grid (no bfill: before a report's + # publication there is genuinely nothing to know). + full_idx = pd.MultiIndex.from_product( + [trading_dates, pd.Index(codes, name="asset")], + names=["date", "asset"], + ) + df_full = df.reindex(full_idx) + df_full = df_full.groupby("asset").ffill() - if not rows: - return pd.DataFrame() + if self._cache_enabled and len(df_full) > 0: + self._save_cache(cache_key, df_full) + return df_full - df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["code", "code_name", "ipoDate", - "outDate", "type", "status"]) - df = df.set_index("code") + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Benchmark + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ - # Map Baostock fields to pipeline-expected columns - df["is_st"] = df["status"].apply( - lambda x: x in ("2", "ST", "PT", "*ST") if isinstance(x, str) else False) - df["listing_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["ipoDate"], errors="coerce") - df["delisting_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["outDate"], errors="coerce") + def get_benchmark( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.Series: + """Get CSI 300 daily trailing returns (pctChg / 100).""" + cache_key = ( + f"bench_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_{end_date}_adj1" + ) + cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) + if cached is not None and not cached.empty: + series = cached.iloc[:, 0] + series.name = "benchmark" + return series - # Get real industry data - df["sector"] = "Unknown" - try: - industry_map = self._get_industry_map() - df["sector"] = df.index.map(lambda x: industry_map.get(x, "Unknown")) - except Exception: - pass + if self._fallback_for(start_date, end_date) is not None: + fallback = self._load_fallback_benchmark(start_date, end_date) + if fallback is not None: + return fallback - self._save_cache(cache_key, df) - return df + self._login() + bs = self._bs - def _get_industry_map(self) -> dict[str, str]: - """Get industry classification for all stocks.""" - cache_key = "industry_map" - cached = self._load_cache(cache_key) - if cached is not None: - return dict(zip(cached.index, cached["industry"], strict=False)) + rows = self._call_with_retries( + "benchmark history", + lambda: self._query_benchmark(bs, start_date, end_date), + ) - self._login() - import baostock as bs + if not rows: + return pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") - rs = bs.query_stock_industry() + df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["date", "close", "preclose", "pctChg"]) + df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) + df["pctChg"] = pd.to_numeric(df["pctChg"], errors="coerce") / 100 + series = df.set_index("date")["pctChg"].dropna() + series.name = "benchmark" + + self._save_cache(cache_key, series.to_frame("benchmark_return")) + return series + + @staticmethod + def _query_benchmark(bs, start_date: str, end_date: str) -> list[list[str]]: + rs = bs.query_history_k_data_plus( + "sh.000300", + "date,close,preclose,pctChg", + start_date=start_date, + end_date=end_date, + frequency="d", + adjustflag="1", + ) + if rs.error_code != "0": + raise RuntimeError( + f"benchmark query error {rs.error_code}: {getattr(rs, 'error_msg', '')}" + ) rows = [] - while rs.error_code == "0" and rs.next(): + while rs.next(): rows.append(rs.get_row_data()) + if rs.error_code != "0": + raise RuntimeError(f"benchmark query failed mid-stream: {rs.error_code}") + return rows + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Incremental updates (D32) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _payload(**overrides) -> dict: + status = { + "supported": True, + "performed": False, + "full_refetch": False, + "new_sessions": 0, + "requested_end": None, + "last_complete_date": None, + "previous_last_complete_date": None, + "updated_at": None, + "data_age_days": None, + "incomplete": False, + "missing_symbols": [], + "reason": "", + } + status.update(overrides) + return status + + def _remember_status(self, status: dict, *, source: str) -> dict: + self._data_status = { + "last_complete_date": status.get("last_complete_date"), + "requested_end": status.get("requested_end"), + "updated_at": status.get("updated_at"), + "data_age_days": status.get("data_age_days"), + "incomplete": bool(status.get("incomplete")), + "source": source, + } + return status + + def _candidate_daily_caches( + self, codes: list[str], start_date: str, + ) -> list[tuple]: + """Valid cached raw (``adj3``) panels for this universe + start.""" + prefix = f"daily_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_" + suffix = f"_{len(codes)}_{self._code_digest(codes)}_adj3" + keys: dict[str, pd.Timestamp] = {} + for pattern in (f"{prefix}*{suffix}.parquet", f"{prefix}*{suffix}.csv"): + for path in CACHE_DIR.glob(pattern): + name = path.name + if ".tmp." in name: + continue + key = name.rsplit(".", 1)[0] + if key in keys: + continue + end_str = key[len(prefix):-len(suffix)] + try: + end_ts = pd.Timestamp(end_str).normalize() + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + if not self._manifest_valid(key): + continue + keys[key] = end_ts + return sorted( + ((end_ts, key) for key, end_ts in keys.items()), + key=lambda item: item[0], + ) - if not rows: - return {} + @staticmethod + def _manifest_marker(key_path: Path) -> dict: + return read_cache_manifest(key_path) or {} + + @staticmethod + def _delisted_from_records( + records: list[dict] | None, before, + ) -> set[str]: + """Codes whose baostock ``outDate`` is <= ``before``.""" + cutoff = pd.Timestamp(before).normalize() + exempt: set[str] = set() + for record in records or []: + out = _as_date(record.get("outDate")) + if pd.notna(out) and pd.Timestamp(out).normalize() <= cutoff: + exempt.add(str(record["code"]).zfill(6)) + return exempt + + def _write_marker(self, key: str, extra: dict) -> None: + """Attach the completion marker after the data file was published.""" + base = self._cache_path(key) + if not base.exists() and not base.with_suffix(".csv").exists(): + # The panel was never published (cache disabled or a save + # failure); a marker without data would make the next append read + # an unknown boundary, so leave it unwritten. + logger.warning( + "Not writing a completion marker for %s: no cached data file", + key, + ) + return + try: + with provider_cache_lock(base.parent) as locked: + if not locked: + raise TimeoutError( + f"timed out acquiring the provider cache lock for {key}" + ) + self._write_manifest(key, extra=extra) + except Exception as exc: # marker is best effort; missing => refetch + logger.warning( + "Could not write the incremental completion marker for %s: %s", + key, exc, + ) + + def _full_refetch_status( + self, + codes: list[str], + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + reason: str, + previous_marker=None, + ) -> dict: + """Fetch the requested range from scratch and mark it complete.""" + logger.warning( + "Incremental update fell back to a full refetch: %s", reason, + ) + self._fallback_panel = None + self._fallback_range = None + # A full refetch must not replay the cache that triggered it (a + # corrupt/partial panel or a panel/marker race). + raw = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_date, end_date, adjustflag="3", use_cache=False, + ) + if raw.empty: + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_date, + reason=f"{reason} (provider returned no rows)", + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="full_refetch") + if self.adjustment_mode == "hfq": + hfq = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_date, end_date, adjustflag="1", + use_cache=False, + ) + self._merge_adjustment_divisor(raw, hfq) + panel_end = panel_last_date(raw) + marker, incomplete = complete_panel_marker( + raw, + delisted=self._delisted_from_records( + self._get_universe_records(), panel_end, + ), + ) + extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=marker, + requested_end=end_date, + previous_last_complete_date=previous_marker, + new_sessions=0, + incomplete=incomplete, + source="full_refetch", + ) + key = self._daily_cache_key(codes, start_date, end_date, "3") + # Publish the freshly fetched panel (the cache that triggered this + # fallback is deliberately not replayed) with its completion marker. + self._save_cache(key, raw, extra=extra, raise_errors=True) + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_date, + last_complete_date=extra["last_complete_date"], + previous_last_complete_date=extra["previous_last_complete_date"], + updated_at=extra["updated_at"], + data_age_days=extra["data_age_days"], + full_refetch=True, + incomplete=incomplete, + reason=reason, + ) + self._last_status_path = self._cache_path(key) + write_incremental_status(self._last_status_path, status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="full_refetch") - df = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=rs.fields) - df["code"] = df["code"].apply(_from_bs_code) - df = df.set_index("code") + def _incomplete_status( + self, + old_panel: pd.DataFrame, + codes: list[str], + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + reason: str, + *, + marker, + missing: set[str] | None = None, + ) -> dict: + """Partial response: keep the old cache/panel, marker unchanged.""" + logger.warning( + "Incremental update incomplete (%s); keeping the cached panel " + "through %s and not advancing the completion marker", + reason, marker, + ) + self._fallback_panel = old_panel + self._fallback_range = self._normalise_range(start_date, end_date) + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_date, + last_complete_date=( + pd.Timestamp(marker).date().isoformat() + if marker is not None else None + ), + incomplete=True, + missing_symbols=sorted(str(code) for code in (missing or set()))[:20], + reason=reason, + ) + key = self._daily_cache_key(codes, start_date, end_date, "3") + self._last_status_path = self._cache_path(key) + write_incremental_status(self._last_status_path, status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + def _load_fallback_financials( + self, codes: list[str], start_date: str, end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Financial panel from the last complete cache after a partial update.""" + prefix = f"fin_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_" + suffix = f"_{len(codes)}_{self._code_digest(codes)}_adj3" + requested_end = pd.Timestamp(end_date).normalize() + best: tuple[pd.Timestamp, str] | None = None + for pattern in (f"{prefix}*{suffix}.parquet", f"{prefix}*{suffix}.csv"): + for path in CACHE_DIR.glob(pattern): + name = path.name + if ".tmp." in name: + continue + key = name.rsplit(".", 1)[0] + end_str = key[len(prefix):-len(suffix)] + try: + end_ts = pd.Timestamp(end_str).normalize() + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + if end_ts > requested_end or not self._manifest_valid(key): + continue + if best is None or end_ts > best[0]: + best = (end_ts, key) + if best is None: + return None + cached = self._load_cache(best[1]) + if cached is None or cached.empty: + return None + return cached.loc[ + pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) + ] + + def _load_fallback_benchmark( + self, start_date: str, end_date: str, + ) -> pd.Series | None: + """Benchmark from the last complete cache when an update was partial.""" + prefix = f"bench_{self._cache_version()}_{start_date}_" + best: tuple[pd.Timestamp, str] | None = None + for pattern in (f"{prefix}*_adj1.parquet", f"{prefix}*_adj1.csv"): + for path in CACHE_DIR.glob(pattern): + name = path.name + if ".tmp." in name: + continue + key = name.rsplit(".", 1)[0] + end_str = key[len(prefix):-len("_adj1")] + try: + end_ts = pd.Timestamp(end_str).normalize() + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + if end_ts > pd.Timestamp(end_date).normalize(): + continue + if not self._manifest_valid(key): + continue + if best is None or end_ts > best[0]: + best = (end_ts, key) + if best is None: + return None + cached = self._load_cache(best[1]) + if cached is None or cached.empty: + return None + series = cached.iloc[:, 0] + series.name = "benchmark" + return series.loc[ + pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) + ] + + def update(self, start_date: str = None, end_date: str = None) -> dict: + """Append new exchange sessions to the cached raw panel (D32). + + Baostock's raw (``adjustflag=3``) panel is cached per + ``(universe, range)``. The update locates the newest compatible cache + for the same universe and an earlier end date, reads its completion + marker, fetches ``marker + 1 session`` (plus one overlap session) + through the requested end for both raw and hfq series, derives the + divisor for the new rows, merges with ``keep="last"`` and publishes + atomically. If the pinned universe or the adjustment basis changed -- + the cache key no longer matches -- a full fetch is performed instead. + + A partial response keeps the old cache and returns + ``incomplete=True``; the completion marker only advances after a + complete publish. + """ + if start_date is None and self._pinned_range is not None: + start_date = self._pinned_range[0] + if end_date is None and self._pinned_range is not None: + end_date = self._pinned_range[1] + if start_date is None or end_date is None: + raise ValueError("update() requires an explicit start and end date") + start_s = str(pd.Timestamp(start_date).date()) + end_s = str(pd.Timestamp(end_date).date()) + requested_end = pd.Timestamp(end_s).normalize() + + codes = self._pinned_codes(start_s, end_s, financial=False) + if codes is None: + codes = self._get_major_stocks_list( + start_date=start_s, end_date=end_s, + ) + if not codes: + return self._remember_status( + self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + reason="empty stock universe; nothing to append", + ), + source="full_refetch", + ) + if not self._cache_enabled: + return self._remember_status( + self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + full_refetch=True, + reason="provider cache disabled; performing a full fetch", + ), + source="full_refetch", + ) + + candidates = self._candidate_daily_caches(codes, start_s) + covering = [item for item in candidates if item[0] <= requested_end] + if not covering: + return self._full_refetch_status( + codes, start_s, end_s, + "no compatible cached panel for this universe/start range", + ) + end_ts, key = covering[-1] + cached_end_s = str(end_ts.date()) + old_panel = self._load_cache(key) + if old_panel is None or old_panel.empty: + return self._full_refetch_status( + codes, start_s, end_s, + f"cached panel {key} could not be loaded", + ) + manifest = self._manifest_marker(self._cache_path(key)) + marker_raw = manifest.get("last_complete_date") + if not marker_raw or manifest.get("incomplete"): + return self._full_refetch_status( + codes, start_s, end_s, + "cached panel has no trustworthy completion marker", + previous_marker=marker_raw, + ) + marker = pd.Timestamp(marker_raw).normalize() + panel_end = panel_last_date(old_panel) + if panel_end is None or pd.Timestamp(panel_end).normalize() < marker: + # The panel and its manifest were read without a lock; a + # concurrent publish can leave the data file older than the + # marker. Appending from that base could skip sessions between + # the panel end and the marker, so refetch in full instead. + return self._full_refetch_status( + codes, start_s, end_s, + "cached panel ends before its completion marker " + "(concurrent writer or corrupt cache)", + previous_marker=marker_raw, + ) + if requested_end <= marker: + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + data_age_days=manifest.get("data_age_days"), + reason="completion marker already covers the requested end", + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + # A full-fetch raw cache carries no divisor (it is derived from the + # hfq series on demand). The append needs the cached rows' factors to + # compute the overlap correction and to publish a self-contained + # panel, so derive them here (the hfq fetch normally hits the cache + # written by the run that populated the panel). In raw mode the factor + # is the placeholder 1.0 -- no hfq call is needed at all. + if "adj_factor" not in old_panel.columns: + if self.adjustment_mode == "raw": + old_panel = old_panel.copy() + old_panel["adj_factor"] = 1.0 + else: + try: + hfq_key = self._daily_cache_key( + codes, start_s, cached_end_s, "1", + ) + hfq_old = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, start_s, cached_end_s, adjustflag="1", + ) + try: + old_panel = self._merge_adjustment_divisor( + old_panel, hfq_old, + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError: + # Never replay an hfq panel that failed validation. + self._discard_cache(hfq_key) + raise + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + f"cached-range adjustment divisor unavailable: {exc}", + marker=marker, + ) + + window_start = incremental_fetch_start( + marker, requested_end, overlap=INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS, + ) + if window_start is None: + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + reason="no exchange session between the marker and the end", + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + window_start_s = str(pd.Timestamp(window_start).date()) - # Extract industry code (e.g., "J66货币金融服务" -> "J66") - df["industry"] = df["industry"].apply( - lambda x: x[:3] if isinstance(x, str) and len(x) >= 3 else "Unknown") + try: + # Windows are fetched *without* the cache: a window response is + # only a candidate append until the completeness checks below + # pass. Caching it would make a retry for the same end date reuse + # the same partial window forever. + raw_window = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, window_start_s, end_s, adjustflag="3", + use_cache=False, + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, str(exc), marker=marker, + ) + if raw_window.empty: + logger.warning( + "Incremental fetch for %s..%s returned no rows; keeping the " + "cached panel (reported as incomplete/stale, not fresh)", + window_start_s, end_s, + ) + # Serve the last complete panel for the requested range instead + # of re-issuing a full-range fetch that would return the same + # rows (or fail on a genuinely partial provider). + self._fallback_panel = old_panel + self._fallback_range = self._normalise_range(start_s, end_s) + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + incomplete=True, + reason="provider returned no rows for the new sessions", + ) + self._last_status_path = self._cache_path( + self._daily_cache_key(codes, start_s, end_s, "3") + ) + write_incremental_status(self._last_status_path, status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") - self._save_cache(cache_key, df[["industry"]]) - return dict(zip(df.index, df["industry"], strict=False)) + try: + if self.adjustment_mode == "raw": + new_panel = raw_window.copy() + new_panel["adj_factor"] = 1.0 + else: + hfq_window = self._fetch_daily_data( + codes, window_start_s, end_s, adjustflag="1", + use_cache=False, + ) + new_panel = self._merge_adjustment_divisor( + raw_window, hfq_window, + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + f"hfq/adjustment fetch failed: {exc}", marker=marker, + ) + + boundary_symbols = symbols_on_date(old_panel, marker) + delisted = self._delisted_from_records( + self._get_universe_records(), window_start, + ) + new_dates = [ + day for day in pd.DatetimeIndex( + new_panel.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).normalize() if day > marker + ] + if not new_dates: + logger.warning( + "Incremental fetch for %s..%s returned only overlap rows; " + "keeping the cached panel (reported as incomplete/stale)", + window_start_s, end_s, + ) + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + "provider returned no rows after the completion marker", + marker=marker, + ) + window_symbols = { + str(code) for code in new_panel.index[ + new_panel.index.get_level_values("date").isin(new_dates) + ].get_level_values("asset") + } + missing_window = boundary_symbols - window_symbols - delisted + if missing_window: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + "provider response is missing symbols that traded on the " + "completion marker", + marker=marker, missing=missing_window, + ) + + # A corporate action changes the hfq basis. If the overlap ratio + # drifted, rescale cached divisors so adjusted history stays on the + # same basis as the appended rows (defensive: hfq normally leaves + # pre-action history untouched, but a vendor revision must not split + # the series). + merged_old = old_panel + overlap = old_panel.index.intersection(new_panel.index) + if len(overlap): + old_factor = pd.to_numeric( + old_panel.loc[overlap, "adj_factor"], errors="coerce", + ) + new_factor = pd.to_numeric( + new_panel.loc[overlap, "adj_factor"], errors="coerce", + ) + ratio = (new_factor / old_factor).replace( + [np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan, + ).dropna() + ratio = ratio[ratio > 0] + if len(ratio): + median = float(ratio.median()) + if abs(median - 1.0) > 1e-9: + merged_old = old_panel.copy() + values = merged_old["adj_factor"].copy() + before = ( + merged_old.index.get_level_values("date") + < pd.Timestamp(window_start) + ) + values.loc[before] = values.loc[before] * median + merged_old["adj_factor"] = values + logger.info( + "Incremental update rescaled cached adjustment " + "factors by %.8f to match the provider's new basis", + median, + ) + + merged = pd.concat([merged_old, new_panel]).sort_index() + merged = deduplicate_panel(merged, "prices") + + merged_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + merged.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + previous_symbols = ( + symbols_on_date(merged, merged_dates[-2]) + if len(merged_dates) >= 2 else set() + ) + delisted_on_last = self._delisted_from_records( + self._get_universe_records(), panel_last_date(merged), + ) + missing_last = last_day_missing_symbols( + merged, delisted=delisted_on_last, + ) + # Zero tolerance on the last session: without a suspension feed a + # truncated last day is indistinguishable from a suspended name, + # and the marker must never advance past a partial cross-section. + if missing_last: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + "last session of the provider response is missing symbols " + f"present on the previous session ({len(missing_last)} of " + f"{len(previous_symbols)})", + marker=marker, missing=missing_last, + ) + + merged_date_set = set(merged_dates.normalize()) + expected_sessions = exchange_sessions( + marker + pd.Timedelta(days=1), panel_last_date(merged), + ) + missing_dates = [ + day for day in expected_sessions if day not in merged_date_set + ] + if missing_dates: + return self._incomplete_status( + old_panel, codes, start_s, end_s, + "provider response is missing exchange sessions: " + + ", ".join(str(day.date()) for day in missing_dates[:5]), + marker=marker, + ) + + new_marker = panel_last_date(merged) + new_sessions = sessions_after(marker, new_marker) + extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=new_marker, + requested_end=end_s, + previous_last_complete_date=marker, + new_sessions=new_sessions, + incomplete=False, + source="incremental", + ) + key_new = self._daily_cache_key(codes, start_s, end_s, "3") + self._last_status_path = self._cache_path(key_new) + try: + self._save_cache(key_new, merged, extra=extra, raise_errors=True) + except Exception as exc: + # Publication failed: the old cache and marker remain intact. + self._fallback_panel = old_panel + self._fallback_range = self._normalise_range(start_s, end_s) + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + incomplete=True, + reason=f"atomic publish failed: {exc}", + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_path(key_new), status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + # The appended panel is now authoritative: re-derive ST episodes from + # the merged raw flags (windows are fetched without touching the + # in-memory table, so this is the only ingest for an incremental run). + self._ingest_st_episodes(merged) + self._fallback_panel = None + self._fallback_range = None + status = self._payload( + requested_end=end_s, + performed=True, + new_sessions=new_sessions, + last_complete_date=extra["last_complete_date"], + previous_last_complete_date=extra["previous_last_complete_date"], + updated_at=extra["updated_at"], + data_age_days=extra["data_age_days"], + reason=( + f"appended {new_sessions} session(s) from " + f"{window_start_s}..{end_s}" + ), + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_path(key_new), status) + logger.info( + "Incremental update appended %d session(s); completion marker %s", + new_sessions, extra["last_complete_date"], + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="incremental") def close(self): """Logout from baostock.""" diff --git a/data/providers/base.py b/data/providers/base.py index 3d36224..d659af1 100644 --- a/data/providers/base.py +++ b/data/providers/base.py @@ -6,10 +6,717 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import json +import os +import time from abc import ABC, abstractmethod +from datetime import UTC, datetime +from pathlib import Path +from typing import Any import pandas as pd +from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger + +logger = get_logger(__name__) + +# Sidecar manifest appended to every versioned provider cache file. It records +# the data-schema generation, the cache-format version and the adjustment +# convention, so a cache written under old semantics is rejected (and +# refetched) instead of being replayed as current data. +CACHE_MANIFEST_SUFFIX = ".manifest.json" + +# Sidecar recording the outcome of the most recent *incremental attempt*. +# A partial response never touches the data file or its version manifest (D32 +# completion-marker rule: the marker only advances after a complete publish), +# but the failed attempt must still be visible to provenance and operators. +INCREMENTAL_STATUS_SUFFIX = ".incremental.json" + +#: Sessions re-fetched before the first new session on every incremental +#: update. One overlap session is enough to detect a provider that revised +#: the boundary row; the merge is last-wins on ``(date, asset)``. +INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS = 1 + + +def schema_version() -> int: + """Current data-layer schema generation (single source of truth).""" + from quant_platform.utils.cache import DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION + + return int(DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION) + + +def cache_manifest_path(path: str | Path) -> Path: + path = Path(path) + return path.with_name(f"{path.name}{CACHE_MANIFEST_SUFFIX}") + + +def write_cache_manifest( + path: str | Path, + *, + provider: str, + adjustment: str = "n/a", + cache_version: str = "", + extra: dict[str, Any] | None = None, +) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Write the version manifest for a provider cache file atomically.""" + manifest: dict[str, Any] = { + "provider": provider, + "schema_version": schema_version(), + "adjustment": adjustment, + "cache_version": str(cache_version), + "created_at": time.time(), + } + if extra: + manifest.update(extra) + target = cache_manifest_path(path) + tmp = target.with_name(f"{target.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}") + with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as handle: + json.dump(manifest, handle, sort_keys=True) + handle.flush() + os.fsync(handle.fileno()) + os.replace(tmp, target) + return manifest + + +def read_cache_manifest(path: str | Path) -> dict[str, Any] | None: + target = cache_manifest_path(path) + try: + with open(target, encoding="utf-8") as handle: + payload = json.load(handle) + except (OSError, ValueError): + return None + return payload if isinstance(payload, dict) else None + + +def cache_manifest_matches( + path: str | Path, + *, + adjustment: str | None = None, + cache_version: str | None = None, + key: str | None = None, +) -> bool: + """Whether ``path`` carries a manifest valid for the current semantics. + + A missing manifest means the cache predates versioning (or was written by + an older release): it is *not* trusted. The data file itself is left in + place; callers decide whether to delete/refetch. + """ + manifest = read_cache_manifest(path) + if manifest is None: + return False + try: + stored_schema = int(manifest.get("schema_version", -1)) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return False + if stored_schema != schema_version(): + return False + if cache_version is not None and str(manifest.get("cache_version", "")) != str( + cache_version + ): + return False + if key is not None and str(manifest.get("key", "")) != str(key): + return False + return adjustment is None or str(manifest.get("adjustment", "")) == str( + adjustment + ) + + +def exchange_sessions(start, end) -> pd.DatetimeIndex: + """Exchange sessions in ``[start, end]`` (never calendar/business days).""" + from quant_platform.utils.exchange_calendar import trading_days + + return trading_days(start, end) + + +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# Corporate-action contract (paper-engine input) +# --------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +#: One row per action. ``kind`` is ``"cash"`` (``cash_per_share`` > 0, +#: ``split_ratio`` == 1) or ``"split"`` (``split_ratio`` > 0, +#: ``cash_per_share`` == 0). ``asset`` is canonical ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` form. +CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS: tuple[str, ...] = ( + "ex_date", + "asset", + "kind", + "cash_per_share", + "split_ratio", +) + +#: Supported action kinds (one per row; a combined 送转+派息 event is two rows). +CORPORATE_ACTION_KINDS: tuple[str, ...] = ("cash", "split") + + +def empty_corporate_actions() -> pd.DataFrame: + """The documented empty corporate-action frame (never ``None``). + + Schema: ``(ex_date, asset, kind, cash_per_share, split_ratio)`` with + typed columns, so a caller can concatenate/filter it without special + casing "provider has no feed". + """ + return pd.DataFrame({ + "ex_date": pd.Series(dtype="datetime64[ns]"), + "asset": pd.Series(dtype="object"), + "kind": pd.Series(dtype="object"), + "cash_per_share": pd.Series(dtype="float64"), + "split_ratio": pd.Series(dtype="float64"), + }) + + +def normalize_corporate_actions(actions) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Validate and canonicalise a provider corporate-action frame. + + Contract (see :data:`CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS`): + + * ``ex_date`` is parsed to ``Timestamp`` (unparseable rows are dropped); + * ``asset`` is rewritten to canonical ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` form; + * ``kind`` must be ``cash`` or ``split`` (unknown rows are dropped with a + warning -- never guessed into an action); + * a combined event shipped as one row (both ``cash_per_share`` > 0 and + ``split_ratio`` > 1) is expanded into two rows so a consumer applies + each component exactly once and in a defined order; + * a ``cash`` row carries ``split_ratio == 1.0`` and a ``split`` row + carries ``cash_per_share == 0.0``. + + Missing columns raise ``ValueError`` (a broken contract must not look + like "no actions"). Returns a sorted, de-duplicated copy. + """ + from quant_platform.shared.symbols import normalize_symbol + + if actions is None: + return empty_corporate_actions() + if not isinstance(actions, pd.DataFrame): + actions = pd.DataFrame(actions) + if actions.empty and not len(actions.columns): + return empty_corporate_actions() + missing = [c for c in CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS if c not in actions.columns] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + "corporate-action frame is missing required column(s): " + f"{missing} (expected {list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS)})" + ) + + frame = actions.loc[:, list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS)].copy() + frame["ex_date"] = pd.to_datetime(frame["ex_date"], errors="coerce") + frame["asset"] = frame["asset"].map( + lambda value: normalize_symbol(value) if pd.notna(value) else "" + ) + frame["kind"] = frame["kind"].astype(str).str.strip().str.lower() + frame["cash_per_share"] = pd.to_numeric( + frame["cash_per_share"], errors="coerce", + ).fillna(0.0) + frame["split_ratio"] = pd.to_numeric( + frame["split_ratio"], errors="coerce", + ) + + invalid_kind = ~frame["kind"].isin(CORPORATE_ACTION_KINDS) + if bool(invalid_kind.any()): + logger.warning( + "Dropping %d corporate-action row(s) with unknown kind: %s", + int(invalid_kind.sum()), + sorted(frame.loc[invalid_kind, "kind"].unique().tolist())[:5], + ) + frame = frame.loc[~invalid_kind & frame["ex_date"].notna() & (frame["asset"] != "")] + + cash_rows = frame.loc[frame["kind"] == "cash"].copy() + split_rows = frame.loc[frame["kind"] == "split"].copy() + + # A combined 送转+派息 row carries both components; split it into the two + # contract rows. A plain cash row gets split_ratio=1 so it is never + # mistaken for a split. + cash_mask = cash_rows["cash_per_share"].notna() & (cash_rows["cash_per_share"] > 0) + cash_rows = cash_rows.loc[cash_mask].copy() + extra_splits = frame.loc[ + (frame["kind"] == "cash") + & frame["split_ratio"].notna() + & (frame["split_ratio"] > 1.0 + 1e-12) + ].copy() + cash_rows["split_ratio"] = 1.0 + + split_rows = split_rows.loc[ + split_rows["split_ratio"].notna() & (split_rows["split_ratio"] > 0) + ].copy() + extra_cash = frame.loc[ + (frame["kind"] == "split") + & frame["cash_per_share"].notna() + & (frame["cash_per_share"] > 0) + ].copy() + split_rows["cash_per_share"] = 0.0 + + if not extra_splits.empty: + extra_splits = extra_splits.loc[ + extra_splits["split_ratio"] > 1.0 + 1e-12, + list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS), + ] + extra_splits["kind"] = "split" + extra_splits["cash_per_share"] = 0.0 + split_rows = pd.concat([split_rows, extra_splits], ignore_index=True) + if not extra_cash.empty: + extra_cash = extra_cash.loc[ + extra_cash["cash_per_share"] > 0, + list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS), + ] + extra_cash["kind"] = "cash" + extra_cash["split_ratio"] = 1.0 + cash_rows = pd.concat([cash_rows, extra_cash], ignore_index=True) + + combined = pd.concat([cash_rows, split_rows], ignore_index=True) + if combined.empty: + return empty_corporate_actions() + combined = combined.drop_duplicates( + subset=["ex_date", "asset", "kind"], keep="last", + ) + combined = combined.sort_values( + ["ex_date", "asset", "kind"], kind="stable", + ).reset_index(drop=True) + return combined + + +def incremental_fetch_start( + last_complete_date, + requested_end, + *, + overlap: int = INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS, +) -> pd.Timestamp | None: + """First session of the incremental fetch window. + + The window starts at ``last_complete_date + 1 exchange session`` but is + extended backwards by ``overlap`` sessions so a provider that revised the + boundary rows is re-read. Returns ``None`` when the marker already covers + the requested end (nothing to fetch). + + Calendar arithmetic is never used: ``last + 1 day`` can be a weekend or an + exchange holiday, and treating it as a session is the classic off-by-one + that either skips a real session or forges a non-session row. + """ + last = pd.Timestamp(last_complete_date).normalize() + end = pd.Timestamp(requested_end).normalize() + if end <= last: + return None + overlap = max(0, int(overlap)) + # Enough lookback to always contain `overlap` sessions before `last`. + lookback = pd.Timedelta(days=max(21, 4 * overlap + 7)) + sessions = exchange_sessions(last - lookback, end) + position = int(sessions.searchsorted(last, side="right")) + if position >= len(sessions): + return None + return sessions[max(0, position - overlap)] + + +def sessions_after(last_date, until_date) -> int: + """Number of exchange sessions strictly after ``last_date`` up to ``until``. + + This is the unit of ``data_age_days``: a marker on Friday and a requested + end on the following Tuesday is 2 exchange sessions old (Monday, Tuesday), + not 4 calendar days. Returns 0 when ``until`` is not later than + ``last_date`` (a panel can cover a future requested end). + """ + last = pd.Timestamp(last_date).normalize() + until = pd.Timestamp(until_date).normalize() + if until <= last: + return 0 + return int(len(exchange_sessions(last + pd.Timedelta(days=1), until))) + + +def expected_data_end(requested_end, today=None) -> pd.Timestamp: + """The last session a panel can be expected to contain right now. + + ``min(requested_end, today)``: a historical backtest is not stale because + wall-clock time moved on, while a daily refresh with an end date in the + future can only be as complete as today's session. + """ + end = pd.Timestamp(requested_end).normalize() + current = pd.Timestamp(today).normalize() if today is not None else ( + pd.Timestamp.now().normalize() + ) + return min(end, current) + + +def panel_last_date(prices: pd.DataFrame | None) -> pd.Timestamp | None: + """Last date of a ``(date, asset)`` panel (None when empty).""" + if prices is None or len(prices) == 0: + return None + if isinstance(prices.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return pd.Timestamp(prices.index.get_level_values("date").max()) + return pd.Timestamp(prices.index.max()) + + +def canonicalize_panel_index(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Normalise a ``(date, asset)`` MultiIndex to canonical levels. + + Two panels with identical row values can still differ in *level order* + (pandas keeps factorisation order from ``set_index``/``concat``), and + ``unstack`` turns that order into the column order of the pipeline + panels. Rebuilding the levels sorted -- and dropping inferred + ``freq=`` metadata that ``pd.concat`` adds when dates happen + to form a contiguous business-day range -- makes an incremental panel + byte-identical to a full fetch over the same range. + """ + if df is None or df.empty or not isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return df + if list(df.index.names) != ["date", "asset"]: + return df + dates = df.index.get_level_values("date") + assets = df.index.get_level_values("asset") + date_codes, date_levels = pd.factorize(dates, sort=True) + asset_codes, asset_levels = pd.factorize(assets, sort=True) + df = df.copy(deep=False) + df.index = pd.MultiIndex( + levels=[ + pd.DatetimeIndex(date_levels, name="date"), + pd.Index(asset_levels, name="asset"), + ], + codes=[date_codes, asset_codes], + names=["date", "asset"], + verify_integrity=False, + ) + return df + + +def deduplicate_panel( + df: pd.DataFrame, + dataset: str = "panel", + *, + keep: str = "last", +) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Drop duplicate ``(date, asset)`` rows and assert none remain. + + Incremental appends overlap the cached range by at least one session, so + the merged frame is expected to contain duplicates. ``keep="last"`` is the + documented policy: freshly fetched rows supersede cached ones on the + boundary. The post-condition is part of the contract -- a provider that + still returns duplicates would otherwise fail later inside ``unstack``. + """ + if df is None or df.empty or not isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return df + duplicated = df.index.duplicated(keep=keep) + count = int(duplicated.sum()) + if count: + logger.warning( + "%s: dropped %d duplicate (date, asset) row(s) while appending " + "(keep=%r)", dataset, count, keep, + ) + df = df[~duplicated] + if df.index.duplicated(keep=keep).any(): + raise ValueError( + f"{dataset}: duplicate (date, asset) rows remain after " + f"deduplication (keep={keep!r})" + ) + return canonicalize_panel_index(df) + + +def symbols_on_date(frame: pd.DataFrame, date) -> set[str]: + """Asset labels present on one date of a ``(date, asset)`` panel.""" + if frame is None or frame.empty or not isinstance(frame.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return set() + target = pd.Timestamp(date).normalize() + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + frame.index.get_level_values("date") + ).normalize() + if not (dates == target).any(): + return set() + return {str(asset) for asset in frame.index[dates == target].get_level_values("asset")} + + +def last_day_missing_symbols( + frame: pd.DataFrame, + *, + delisted: set[str] | None = None, +) -> set[str]: + """Symbols present on the previous session but missing on the last one. + + A partial provider response can truncate the last day of the window + without failing a batch outright (the symbols appeared earlier in the + window). The completion marker must not advance past such a day. Symbols + whose provider metadata says they were delisted are exempt. + """ + if frame is None or frame.empty or not isinstance(frame.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return set() + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + frame.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + if len(dates) < 2: + return set() + previous = symbols_on_date(frame, dates[-2]) + current = symbols_on_date(frame, dates[-1]) + exempt = {str(code) for code in (delisted or set())} + return previous - current - exempt + + +def complete_panel_marker( + frame: pd.DataFrame, + *, + delisted: set[str] | None = None, +) -> tuple[pd.Timestamp | None, bool]: + """Completion marker for a freshly fetched panel. + + The last row alone is not proof of completeness: a provider can return a + truncated final cross-section. When the last session is missing symbols + present on the previous one (delisted names exempt), the marker is held + back to the previous session and ``incomplete`` is reported. Without a + suspension feed a legitimately suspended name looks the same as a + truncation, so the conservative reading wins -- the next append re-reads + the boundary and advances once the symbol reappears. + """ + last = panel_last_date(frame) + if last is None: + return None, False + missing = last_day_missing_symbols(frame, delisted=delisted) + if not missing: + return last, False + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + frame.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + return (dates[-2] if len(dates) >= 2 else None), True + + +def incremental_marker_extra( + *, + last_complete_date, + requested_end, + previous_last_complete_date=None, + new_sessions: int = 0, + incomplete: bool = False, + source: str = "full_fetch", +) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Manifest fields of the D32 completion marker (JSON-friendly).""" + marker = ( + pd.Timestamp(last_complete_date).normalize() + if last_complete_date is not None else None + ) + end = pd.Timestamp(requested_end).normalize() + age = None + if marker is not None: + age = sessions_after(marker, expected_data_end(end)) + previous = ( + pd.Timestamp(previous_last_complete_date).normalize() + if previous_last_complete_date is not None else None + ) + return { + "last_complete_date": marker.date().isoformat() if marker is not None else None, + "previous_last_complete_date": ( + previous.date().isoformat() if previous is not None else None + ), + "requested_end": end.date().isoformat(), + "updated_at": datetime.now(UTC).isoformat(), + "data_age_days": age, + "incomplete": bool(incomplete), + "new_sessions": int(new_sessions), + "incremental_source": str(source), + } + + +def incremental_status_path(path: str | Path) -> Path: + path = Path(path) + return path.with_name(f"{path.name}{INCREMENTAL_STATUS_SUFFIX}") + + +def write_incremental_status(path: str | Path, status: dict[str, Any]) -> None: + """Atomically record the outcome of an incremental attempt. + + This sidecar is deliberately separate from the data file and its version + manifest: an incomplete attempt must never modify (or advance) either. + """ + target = incremental_status_path(path) + tmp = target.with_name(f"{target.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}") + try: + with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as handle: + json.dump(status, handle, sort_keys=True, default=str) + handle.flush() + os.fsync(handle.fileno()) + os.replace(tmp, target) + except OSError as exc: + logger.warning("Could not write incremental status %s: %s", target, exc) + try: + tmp.unlink(missing_ok=True) + except OSError: + pass + + +def read_incremental_status(path: str | Path) -> dict[str, Any] | None: + target = incremental_status_path(path) + try: + with open(target, encoding="utf-8") as handle: + payload = json.load(handle) + except (OSError, ValueError): + return None + return payload if isinstance(payload, dict) else None + + +def provider_cache_lock(directory: str | Path, *, timeout: float | None = None): + """Cross-process lock serialising provider-cache publication. + + Reuses the pipeline cache's ``_CrossProcessLock`` (``msvcrt.locking`` on + Windows, ``fcntl.flock`` on POSIX) so an append and a pipeline-cache save + share the same well-tested primitives. ``__enter__`` returns ``True`` when + the lock was acquired and ``False`` on timeout; it never raises for + contention. + """ + from quant_platform.utils.cache import DEFAULT_LOCK_TIMEOUT, _CrossProcessLock + + return _CrossProcessLock( + Path(directory) / ".provider_cache.lock", + timeout=( + DEFAULT_LOCK_TIMEOUT if timeout is None else float(timeout) + ), + ) + + +def _provider_label(provider_name: str) -> str: + labels = { + "SyntheticDataProvider": "synthetic", + "TushareProvider": "tushare", + "BaostockDataProvider": "baostock", + "PostgresDataProvider": "postgres", + "AdataProvider": "adata", + "ValidatedProvider": "validated", + } + return labels.get(provider_name, provider_name.lower()) + + +# Provider-specific adjustment conventions when the provider does not declare +# one on the instance. +_ADJUSTMENT_BY_CLASS = { + "SyntheticDataProvider": "synthetic_adj_factor", + "TushareProvider": "hfq", + "BaostockDataProvider": "hfq", +} + + +def provider_identity(provider: DataProvider) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Stable description of the *effective* provider chain. + + For a :class:`ValidatedProvider` wrapper the dict nests one entry per + source, so adding/removing the secondary source (or swapping it) changes + the pipeline cache key. Providers can override ``cache_identity()`` to add + generation parameters; the base implementation falls back to conventional + attributes (n_stocks/seed/index_code/...), which pins the synthetic + generator's inputs without editing that module. + """ + providers = getattr(provider, "providers", None) + if isinstance(providers, dict) and providers: + sources = { + str(name): provider_identity(sub) for name, sub in providers.items() + } + adjustments = {str(src.get("adjustment")) for src in sources.values()} + return { + "provider": "validated(" + "+".join(sorted(sources)) + ")", + "class": f"{type(provider).__module__}.{type(provider).__name__}", + "wrapper": type(provider).__name__, + "primary": getattr(provider, "primary", None), + "sources": sources, + "adjustment": ( + next(iter(adjustments)) if len(adjustments) == 1 else "mixed" + ), + "synthetic": any(bool(src.get("synthetic")) for src in sources.values()), + } + + identity: dict[str, Any] = {} + hook = getattr(provider, "cache_identity", None) + if callable(hook): + try: + value = hook() + if isinstance(value, dict): + identity.update(value) + except Exception as exc: # identity is diagnostic, never fatal + logger.warning( + "Provider cache_identity() failed for %s: %s", + type(provider).__name__, exc, + ) + + class_name = type(provider).__name__ + identity.setdefault("provider", _provider_label(class_name)) + identity.setdefault("class", f"{type(provider).__module__}.{class_name}") + identity.setdefault( + "adjustment", + getattr( + provider, + "price_adjustment", + _ADJUSTMENT_BY_CLASS.get(class_name, "provider-defined"), + ), + ) + identity.setdefault("synthetic", _provider_label(class_name) == "synthetic") + # Conventional generation/selection attributes. ``str`` keeps the payload + # JSON-serialisable (Timestamps, Paths, numpy scalars). + for attr in ( + "n_stocks", "seed", "start_date", "end_date", "index_code", + "embedded_alpha", "alpha_strength", "cache_enabled", + ): + if hasattr(provider, attr): + identity.setdefault(attr, str(getattr(provider, attr))) + return identity + + +def sampled_universe( + provider: DataProvider, + *, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + n_symbols: int | None = None, +) -> list[str] | None: + """The provider-level symbol sample that determines a run's panel. + + Returns ``None`` when the provider cannot describe its sample cheaply; + callers must then treat the provider cache identity as incomplete (and + must not serve a pipeline-cache entry). Providers can implement + ``cache_universe()`` (Tushare, Baostock do); synthetic's asset list is + reproduced deterministically from ``n_stocks`` without generating data. + """ + providers = getattr(provider, "providers", None) + if isinstance(providers, dict) and providers: + # A validated wrapper's panel is its primary source's panel (the + # secondary only validates/fuses); the primary defines the symbols. + primary_name = getattr(provider, "primary", None) + primary = providers.get(primary_name) if primary_name else None + if primary is None: + primary = next(iter(providers.values())) + return sampled_universe( + primary, + start_date=start_date, + end_date=end_date, + n_symbols=n_symbols, + ) + + hook = getattr(provider, "cache_universe", None) + if callable(hook): + try: + codes = hook( + start_date=start_date, end_date=end_date, n_symbols=n_symbols, + ) + except Exception as exc: # universe resolution is best effort + logger.warning( + "Could not determine the provider universe for cache identity: %s", + exc, + ) + return None + if codes is None: + return None + return sorted({str(code) for code in codes}) + + # SyntheticDataProvider assigns the assets during `_generate_all`, but the + # formula is deterministic in n_stocks. Reproducing it avoids generating + # the whole panel just to compute a cache key. + n_stocks = getattr(provider, "n_stocks", None) + if n_stocks is not None and type(provider).__name__ == "SyntheticDataProvider": + return [ + f"{i:06d}.SH" if i % 3 != 0 else f"{i:06d}.SZ" + for i in range(1, int(n_stocks) + 1) + ] + + assets = getattr(provider, "_assets", None) + if assets: + return sorted({str(asset) for asset in assets}) + return None + + +class DataFetchIncompleteError(RuntimeError): + """Raised when a provider could not fetch every requested symbol. + + Providers must never return (or cache) a silently truncated panel. A + caller that gets this exception knows the result is unusable as a + complete cross-section and must retry, fall back, or fail closed. + """ + class DataProvider(ABC): """Abstract interface for market data providers. @@ -21,6 +728,101 @@ class DataProvider(ABC): - Asset metadata (sector, market cap, ST status, etc.) """ + #: How ``close`` relates to the traded price. Providers that embed the + #: corporate-action factor in the price level (hfq) or ship a divisor + #: column must declare it; it is part of every cache identity. + price_adjustment: str = "provider-defined" + + #: Whether :meth:`update` can append new sessions to an existing cache. + #: Callers (the CLI) must fall back to a full fetch -- with a warning -- + #: when this is False or when ``update`` raises ``NotImplementedError``. + #: A provider that does not advertise this must never be treated as + #: "nothing new": stale data is reported by the freshness gate, not + #: assumed fresh because an append was skipped. + supports_incremental: bool = False + + #: Whether this provider can supply a corporate-action feed. Providers + #: that do not (or whose source is currently unavailable) inherit the + #: default :meth:`get_corporate_actions`, which returns the documented + #: empty frame -- never ``None`` and never fabricated amounts. + corporate_actions_available: bool = False + + def get_corporate_actions( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Return corporate actions with ex-dates in ``[start_date, end_date]``. + + Contract: a frame with columns + ``(ex_date, asset, kind, cash_per_share, split_ratio)`` where + ``asset`` is canonical ``CODE.EXCHANGE`` form, ``kind`` is ``cash`` + or ``split``, ``cash_per_share`` is the pre-tax cash dividend per + share (CNY) and ``split_ratio`` the shares-after/shares-before ratio + (2.0 == 2:1 split). A combined 送转+派息 event is returned as two + rows. ``ex_date`` is the exchange session on which the raw price is + adjusted and the entitlement is applied. + + Providers without a feed, or whose API is unavailable right now, + return :func:`empty_corporate_actions` and leave + ``corporate_actions_available`` False. Callers must treat an empty + frame as "no actions", never as permission to invent them. + """ + return empty_corporate_actions() + + def update(self, start_date: str, end_date: str) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Append the sessions after the cached completion marker, if any. + + Contract: + + * Return a JSON-friendly status dict with at least ``supported``, + ``performed``, ``full_refetch``, ``new_sessions``, + ``last_complete_date``, ``requested_end``, ``incomplete`` and + ``reason``. + * Never advance ``last_complete_date`` past data that was not + completely fetched. A partial response returns ``incomplete=True`` + (or raises :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError`) and leaves the data + file *and* its manifest untouched. + * Publish the appended panel atomically (temp file + ``os.replace`` + under :func:`provider_cache_lock`) and write the version manifest + only after the data write succeeded. + * The merged panel must be byte-identical to a full fetch over the + same range: overlap rows win (``keep="last"``), no duplicate + ``(date, asset)`` rows remain, and corporate-action factors are + refreshed so adjusted series stay continuous. + """ + raise NotImplementedError( + f"{type(self).__name__} does not support incremental updates; " + "perform a full fetch instead" + ) + + def data_status(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Completion marker/provenance of the currently loaded data. + + Keys (any may be absent): ``last_complete_date``, ``requested_end``, + ``updated_at``, ``incomplete`` and ``source``. Providers that do not + maintain a marker return an empty dict; callers then derive freshness + from the panel's last date. + """ + return {} + + def cache_identity(self) -> dict[str, Any]: + """Describe the inputs that determine this provider's fetched data. + + The pipeline cache key includes this description. Providers with + generation parameters (seeds, index codes, cache formats) should + override it; the default labels the class and adjustment convention. + """ + adjustment = self.price_adjustment + if adjustment == "provider-defined": + adjustment = _ADJUSTMENT_BY_CLASS.get( + type(self).__name__, adjustment, + ) + return { + "provider": _provider_label(type(self).__name__), + "adjustment": adjustment, + } + @abstractmethod def get_prices( self, @@ -32,6 +834,20 @@ def get_prices( Returns DataFrame with MultiIndex (date, asset) and columns like open, high, low, close, volume, turnover, adj_factor. + + ``fields`` is a column projection with one contract across all + providers: unknown names raise :class:`ValueError` (never silently + dropped) and the returned columns appear in the requested order. + + Units are fixed at this boundary: ``volume`` is in shares, ``amount`` + in CNY and ``turnover`` is a fraction (0.025 == 2.5%). ``close`` is + the adjusted price series and ``adj_factor`` the divisor the pipeline + applies to obtain the return-generating price (adjustment applied + exactly once: ``close_adj = close / adj_factor``). + + If any requested symbol cannot be fetched after bounded retries the + provider must raise :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` rather than return a + truncated panel. """ ... diff --git a/data/providers/connection_pool.py b/data/providers/connection_pool.py index 3ae8859..57d5a6a 100644 --- a/data/providers/connection_pool.py +++ b/data/providers/connection_pool.py @@ -19,6 +19,8 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import copy +import json import threading import time from dataclasses import dataclass, field @@ -31,6 +33,10 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +# Bump when the cached payload's schema/semantics change; it is part of every +# cache key so a unit/contract fix cannot be masked by a stale in-process hit. +CACHE_SCHEMA_VERSION = "2" + class SourceStatus(StrEnum): HEALTHY = "healthy" @@ -53,6 +59,7 @@ class SourceHealth: avg_latency_ms: float = 0.0 _latencies: list[float] = field(default_factory=list, repr=False) circuit_open_until: float = 0.0 + last_error: str = "" @property def available(self) -> bool: @@ -76,10 +83,11 @@ def record_success(self, latency_ms: float): if self.status == SourceStatus.DEGRADED: self.status = SourceStatus.HEALTHY - def record_failure(self): + def record_failure(self, reason: str = ""): self.failure_count += 1 self.consecutive_failures += 1 self.last_failure = time.time() + self.last_error = str(reason) # Circuit breaker: open after 3 consecutive failures if self.consecutive_failures >= 3: self.status = SourceStatus.CIRCUIT_OPEN @@ -104,6 +112,7 @@ def __init__( self, providers: dict[str, Any], priorities: dict[str, int] | None = None, + min_rows: int = 1, ): self._providers = providers self._lock = threading.Lock() @@ -126,6 +135,9 @@ def __init__( # Cache for deduplication self._cache: dict[str, tuple[float, Any]] = {} self._cache_ttl = 60 # seconds + # A response with fewer rows than this is treated as empty. One + # empty frame must not disable failover to a healthy secondary source. + self._min_rows = max(0, int(min_rows)) def get_prices( self, @@ -137,10 +149,10 @@ def get_prices( Tries sources in priority order. Falls back automatically. """ - cache_key = f"prices_{start_date}_{end_date}" + cache_key = self._make_cache_key("prices", start_date, end_date, kwargs) cached = self._check_cache(cache_key) if cached is not None: - return cached + return self._copy_result(cached) for name, provider in self._get_ordered_providers(): health = self._health[name] @@ -153,13 +165,22 @@ def get_prices( result = provider.get_prices(start_date, end_date, **kwargs) latency = (time.perf_counter() - start) * 1000 + if result is None: + raise ValueError("provider returned None") + if self._is_unusable_result(result) and self._another_source_available(name): + raise ValueError( + f"provider returned an empty/short frame " + f"(<{self._min_rows} row(s)); failing over" + ) health.record_success(latency) - self._set_cache(cache_key, result) + # Store a copy: the caller receives `result` and may mutate + # it, which used to corrupt the cache for the next request. + self._set_cache(cache_key, self._copy_result(result)) logger.info("Data from %s (%.0fms, %d rows)", name, latency, len(result)) return result except Exception as e: - health.record_failure() + health.record_failure(str(e)) logger.warning("Source %s failed: %s", name, e) logger.error("All data sources failed for prices %s to %s", start_date, end_date) @@ -172,10 +193,10 @@ def get_financials( **kwargs, ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: """Get financial data from the best available source.""" - cache_key = f"financials_{start_date}_{end_date}" + cache_key = self._make_cache_key("financials", start_date, end_date, kwargs) cached = self._check_cache(cache_key) if cached is not None: - return cached + return self._copy_result(cached) for name, provider in self._get_ordered_providers(): health = self._health[name] @@ -190,12 +211,19 @@ def get_financials( result = provider.get_financials(start_date, end_date, **kwargs) latency = (time.perf_counter() - start) * 1000 + if result is None: + raise ValueError("provider returned None") + if self._is_unusable_result(result) and self._another_source_available(name): + raise ValueError( + f"provider returned an empty/short financial frame " + f"(<{self._min_rows} row(s)); failing over" + ) health.record_success(latency) - self._set_cache(cache_key, result) + self._set_cache(cache_key, self._copy_result(result)) return result except Exception as e: - health.record_failure() + health.record_failure(str(e)) logger.warning("Source %s financials failed: %s", name, e) return None @@ -212,6 +240,7 @@ def health_check(self) -> dict[str, dict]: "consecutive_failures": health.consecutive_failures, "avg_latency_ms": round(health.avg_latency_ms, 1), "available": health.available, + "last_error": health.last_error, } return result @@ -235,6 +264,50 @@ def clear_cache(self): # ── Internal ── + def _is_unusable_result(self, value: Any) -> bool: + """True for an empty/undersized frame that should trigger failover.""" + try: + return len(value) < self._min_rows + except TypeError: + return False + + def _another_source_available(self, name: str) -> bool: + """Whether a different, currently usable source exists for failover.""" + return any( + other != name and health.available + for other, health in self._health.items() + ) + + def _make_cache_key( + self, prefix: str, start_date: str, end_date: str, kwargs: dict, + ) -> str: + """Cache key includes the provider identities and a schema version. + + The same request routed through a different provider set (or after a + payload-contract bump) must not be served another configuration's + result. ``kwargs`` are included so a field projection is not served + the cache of a different one. + """ + identities = "|".join( + f"{name}={type(provider).__module__}.{type(provider).__name__}" + for name, provider in sorted(self._providers.items()) + ) + try: + suffix = json.dumps(kwargs, sort_keys=True, default=str) + except TypeError: + suffix = repr(sorted(kwargs.items(), key=lambda item: item[0])) + return ( + f"{prefix}_{CACHE_SCHEMA_VERSION}_{identities}_" + f"{start_date}_{end_date}_{suffix}" + ) + + @staticmethod + def _copy_result(value: Any) -> Any: + """Return a copy so a caller cannot mutate the shared cache.""" + if isinstance(value, pd.DataFrame): + return value.copy() + return copy.deepcopy(value) + def _get_ordered_providers(self): """Get providers sorted by priority (lowest first).""" items = sorted( diff --git a/data/providers/fundamental_realtime.py b/data/providers/fundamental_realtime.py index 2d7ae10..f1900eb 100644 --- a/data/providers/fundamental_realtime.py +++ b/data/providers/fundamental_realtime.py @@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ """Real-time fundamental data provider. -Fetches real-time PE/PB/ROE and other fundamental metrics from public APIs: -- 东方财富 (East Money) public API -- 新浪财经 (Sina Finance) API -- Tushare (if token available) +Fetches real-time PE/PB and market-cap data from the public East Money API. +When the API is unreachable, the provider falls back to synthetic values and +**marks them** (`source="synthetic"`, `is_synthetic=True`) so callers and the +API can tell fabricated numbers from real ones. Includes: - In-memory cache with configurable TTL @@ -13,15 +13,15 @@ Usage: fd = FundamentalDataProvider() metrics = fd.get_fundamentals("600519") - # {'pe_ttm': 33.5, 'pb': 11.2, 'roe': 31.5, 'market_cap': 2.1e12, ...} - - bulk = fd.get_bulk(["600519", "000001", "300750"]) + # {'pe_ttm': 33.5, 'pb': 11.2, 'market_cap': 2.1e12, ...} """ from __future__ import annotations +import math import threading import time +import zlib from dataclasses import dataclass, field from datetime import datetime @@ -34,7 +34,12 @@ @dataclass class FundamentalMetrics: - """Real-time fundamental metrics for a stock.""" + """Real-time fundamental metrics for a stock. + + `source` names where the numbers came from ("eastmoney" or "synthetic"); + `is_synthetic` is the machine-readable flag. Unavailable ratios stay at + 0.0, which consumers must treat as unknown rather than as a real zero. + """ code: str name: str = "" pe_ttm: float = 0.0 @@ -57,6 +62,8 @@ class FundamentalMetrics: net_profit: float = 0.0 eps: float = 0.0 bvps: float = 0.0 + source: str = "" + is_synthetic: bool = False timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) def to_dict(self) -> dict: @@ -65,16 +72,28 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: def to_series(self) -> pd.Series: return pd.Series(self.to_dict()) + def to_frame(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """One-row frame that **keeps** provenance (``source``/``is_synthetic``). + + Dropping those columns made fabricated fallback values + indistinguishable from live data once they left the dataclass. + """ + return pd.DataFrame([self.to_dict()]) + class FundamentalDataProvider: """Real-time fundamental data provider with caching and rate limiting. - Fetches PE/PB/ROE from public APIs. No API key required. + Fetches PE/PB and market cap from the public East Money API. No API key + required. When the API fails, synthetic values are returned with + `source="synthetic"` and `is_synthetic=True`. Args: cache_ttl: Cache time-to-live in seconds rate_limit: Minimum seconds between API calls per source - source: Preferred data source ("eastmoney", "sina") + source: Preferred data source (only "eastmoney" is implemented) + strict: When True, an unavailable live API raises instead of + returning flagged synthetic values (fail closed). """ def __init__( @@ -82,10 +101,12 @@ def __init__( cache_ttl: int = 300, rate_limit: float = 0.5, source: str = "eastmoney", + strict: bool = False, ): self._cache_ttl = cache_ttl self._rate_limit = rate_limit self._source = source + self._strict = bool(strict) self._cache: dict[str, tuple[float, FundamentalMetrics]] = {} self._lock = threading.Lock() @@ -93,6 +114,9 @@ def __init__( self._request_count = 0 self._cache_hits = 0 self._cache_misses = 0 + self._live_count = 0 + self._synthetic_count = 0 + self._last_source = "" def get_fundamentals(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: """Get real-time fundamental metrics for a stock. @@ -156,16 +180,24 @@ def get_bulk(self, codes: list[str]) -> dict[str, FundamentalMetrics]: return result def get_as_dataframe(self, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Get fundamentals as a DataFrame (stocks x metrics).""" + """Get fundamentals as a DataFrame (stocks x metrics). + + Provenance columns (``source``/``is_synthetic``, plus ``name`` and + ``timestamp``) are preserved so callers can tell live numbers from + synthetic fallbacks; they are not coerced to numeric. + """ metrics = self.get_bulk(codes) data = {code: m.to_dict() for code, m in metrics.items()} df = pd.DataFrame(data).T df.index.name = "code" - # Drop non-numeric columns - for col in ["name", "timestamp"]: - if col in df.columns: - df = df.drop(columns=[col]) - return df.apply(pd.to_numeric, errors="coerce") + provenance_cols = [ + col for col in ("name", "timestamp", "source", "is_synthetic") + if col in df.columns + ] + numeric_cols = [col for col in df.columns if col not in provenance_cols] + if numeric_cols: + df[numeric_cols] = df[numeric_cols].apply(pd.to_numeric, errors="coerce") + return df def clear_cache(self): """Clear the cache.""" @@ -176,8 +208,12 @@ def clear_cache(self): def stats(self) -> dict: return { "source": self._source, + "last_source": self._last_source, + "live_count": self._live_count, + "synthetic_count": self._synthetic_count, "cached": len(self._cache), "cache_ttl": self._cache_ttl, + "strict": self._strict, "request_count": self._request_count, "cache_hits": self._cache_hits, "cache_misses": self._cache_misses, @@ -205,36 +241,48 @@ def _rate_limit_wait(self): self._last_request_time = time.time() def _fetch_from_api(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: - """Fetch fundamental data from API. + """Fetch fundamental data, falling back to *flagged* synthetic values. - In production, this would make HTTP requests to East Money/Sina. - For the demo, we generate realistic synthetic data. + The fallback used to be indistinguishable from live data: the object + carried no provenance and `stats` still reported the configured + source. Every caller now receives `is_synthetic=True` when the numbers + were generated. """ self._request_count += 1 - # Try real API first try: - return self._fetch_eastmoney(code) + metrics = self._fetch_eastmoney(code) + self._live_count += 1 + self._last_source = metrics.source + return metrics except Exception as e: logger.debug("East Money API failed for %s: %s", code, e) - - try: - return self._fetch_sina(code) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Sina API failed for %s: %s", code, e) - - # Fallback: generate synthetic fundamentals - return self._generate_synthetic(code) + if self._strict: + # Fail closed: never fabricate ratios in strict mode. + raise RuntimeError( + f"live fundamentals unavailable for {code} (strict mode): {e}" + ) from e + + logger.info("Using synthetic fundamentals for %s (live API unavailable)", code) + metrics = self._generate_synthetic(code) + self._synthetic_count += 1 + self._last_source = metrics.source + return metrics def _fetch_eastmoney(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: - """Fetch from East Money public API. + """Fetch from East Money's `qt/stock/get` endpoint. + + Field ids: f58 name, f162 PE(TTM), f167 PB, f116 total market cap, + f117 circulating market cap. Prices/ratios in this endpoint are + scaled by 100 (f162=1860 means 18.60), market caps are in yuan. - Endpoint: http://push2.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/get + The previous request asked for f9/f23, which belong to the unrelated + `clist` endpoint: `stock/get` never returns them, so PE and PB were + always 0.0 while the response looked successful. """ import json import urllib.request - # Determine market prefix if code.startswith("6"): secid = f"1.{code}" else: @@ -243,7 +291,7 @@ def _fetch_eastmoney(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: url = ( f"http://push2.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/get" f"?secid={secid}" - f"&fields=f9,f23,f115,f114,f116,f117" + f"&fields=f58,f162,f167,f116,f117" ) req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={"User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0"}) @@ -254,50 +302,38 @@ def _fetch_eastmoney(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: raise ValueError("No data returned") d = data["data"] - return FundamentalMetrics( - code=code, - pe_ttm=float(d.get("f9", 0) or 0), - pb=float(d.get("f23", 0) or 0), - roe=float(d.get("f115", 0) or 0), - gross_margin=float(d.get("f114", 0) or 0), - net_margin=float(d.get("f116", 0) or 0), - revenue_growth=float(d.get("f117", 0) or 0), - ) - def _fetch_sina(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: - """Fetch from Sina Finance API. + def _num(key: str) -> float: + value = d.get(key) + try: + value = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return 0.0 + return value if math.isfinite(value) else 0.0 - Endpoint: http://hq.sinajs.cn/list=sh600519 - """ - import urllib.request - - prefix = "sh" if code.startswith("6") else "sz" - url = f"http://hq.sinajs.cn/list={prefix}{code}" - - req = urllib.request.Request(url, headers={ - "User-Agent": "Mozilla/5.0", - "Referer": "http://finance.sina.com.cn", - }) - with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=5) as resp: - text = resp.read().decode("gbk") - - # Parse Sina format: var hq_str_sh600519="name,open,prev_close,..." - parts = text.split('"')[1].split(",") - if len(parts) < 32: - raise ValueError("Invalid Sina response") + pe_ttm = _num("f162") / 100.0 + pb = _num("f167") / 100.0 + if pe_ttm == 0.0 and pb == 0.0: + raise ValueError("East Money returned no valuation fields") return FundamentalMetrics( code=code, - name=parts[0], - open=float(parts[1] or 0), - prev_close=float(parts[2] or 0), + name=str(d.get("f58") or ""), + pe_ttm=pe_ttm, + pb=pb, + market_cap=_num("f116"), + circulating_cap=_num("f117"), + source="eastmoney", ) def _generate_synthetic(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: - """Generate realistic synthetic fundamental data.""" + """Generate stable synthetic fundamentals, flagged as such.""" import numpy as np - rng = np.random.default_rng(hash(code) % 2**32) + # `hash(code)` is salted per process, so the same stock reported + # different PE/PB after every server restart. crc32 is stable. + seed = zlib.crc32(code.encode("utf-8")) + rng = np.random.default_rng(seed) # Realistic ranges for A-share stocks pe = max(1, rng.lognormal(3, 0.8)) # median ~20, range ~3-200 @@ -327,9 +363,28 @@ def _generate_synthetic(self, code: str) -> FundamentalMetrics: net_profit=round(market_cap * rng.uniform(0.02, 0.15), 0), eps=round(rng.uniform(0.5, 10), 2), bvps=round(rng.uniform(3, 50), 2), + source="synthetic", + is_synthetic=True, ) +def _known(value: float | None) -> bool: + """Whether a metric is real rather than the dataclass's "unavailable" 0. + + A listed company cannot have a PE, PB, ROE, market cap or debt ratio of + exactly zero; 0.0 is what the provider leaves behind when the API did not + supply the field. Screening used to treat those zeros as values, so + `pe_max=20` passed every stock and `pb_min=1` rejected every stock. + """ + if value is None: + return False + try: + value = float(value) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + return False + return math.isfinite(value) and value != 0.0 + + class FundamentalScreener: """Screen stocks by fundamental criteria. @@ -375,25 +430,33 @@ def screen( passed = [] for code, m in metrics.items(): - if pe_min is not None and m.pe_ttm < pe_min: + if pe_min is not None and not (_known(m.pe_ttm) and m.pe_ttm >= pe_min): continue - if pe_max is not None and m.pe_ttm > pe_max: + if pe_max is not None and not (_known(m.pe_ttm) and m.pe_ttm <= pe_max): continue - if pb_min is not None and m.pb < pb_min: + if pb_min is not None and not (_known(m.pb) and m.pb >= pb_min): continue - if pb_max is not None and m.pb > pb_max: + if pb_max is not None and not (_known(m.pb) and m.pb <= pb_max): continue - if roe_min is not None and m.roe < roe_min: + if roe_min is not None and not (_known(m.roe) and m.roe >= roe_min): continue - if roe_max is not None and m.roe > roe_max: + if roe_max is not None and not (_known(m.roe) and m.roe <= roe_max): continue - if market_cap_min is not None and m.market_cap < market_cap_min: + if market_cap_min is not None and not ( + _known(m.market_cap) and m.market_cap >= market_cap_min + ): continue - if market_cap_max is not None and m.market_cap > market_cap_max: + if market_cap_max is not None and not ( + _known(m.market_cap) and m.market_cap <= market_cap_max + ): continue - if dividend_yield_min is not None and m.dividend_yield < dividend_yield_min: + if dividend_yield_min is not None and not ( + _known(m.dividend_yield) and m.dividend_yield >= dividend_yield_min + ): continue - if debt_ratio_max is not None and m.debt_ratio > debt_ratio_max: + if debt_ratio_max is not None and not ( + _known(m.debt_ratio) and m.debt_ratio <= debt_ratio_max + ): continue passed.append(code) @@ -422,8 +485,8 @@ def rank_by( ranked = [] for code, m in metrics.items(): value = getattr(m, metric, None) - if value is not None: - ranked.append((code, value)) + if _known(value): + ranked.append((code, float(value))) ranked.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=not ascending) if top_n: diff --git a/data/providers/level2_provider.py b/data/providers/level2_provider.py index 7f9e909..9350b23 100644 --- a/data/providers/level2_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/level2_provider.py @@ -209,7 +209,7 @@ def compute_trade_flow(self, code: str, n_ticks: int = 100) -> dict: "buy_volume": buy_volume, "sell_volume": sell_volume, "net_flow": buy_volume - sell_volume, - "buy_pct": round(buy_volume / total * 100, 2) if total > 0 else 50, + "buy_pct": round(buy_volume / total * 100, 2) if total > 0 else 0.0, } def get_all_books(self) -> dict[str, OrderBookSnapshot]: @@ -245,6 +245,8 @@ def stats(self) -> dict: "books_cached": len(self._books), "total_ticks": sum(len(t) for t in self._ticks.values()), "running": self._running, + "simulated": True, + "source": "simulated", } # ── Simulation ── diff --git a/data/providers/postgres_provider.py b/data/providers/postgres_provider.py index 913262d..9f8aab0 100644 --- a/data/providers/postgres_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/postgres_provider.py @@ -55,12 +55,22 @@ except ImportError: HAS_ASYNCPG = False +import numpy as np import pandas as pd from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.schema import FINANCIAL_COLUMNS, DataQualityError Base = declarative_base() if HAS_SQLALCHEMY else None +#: Close bases ``daily_prices.close`` may carry. +_PRICE_BASES = ("raw", "qfq", "hfq") + +#: Columns the ``daily_prices`` query exposes (the provider's field universe). +_PIVOT_COLUMNS = ( + "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "turnover", "adj_factor", +) + class OrderRow(Base if HAS_SQLALCHEMY else object): """SQLAlchemy model for orders table.""" @@ -243,6 +253,52 @@ def save_trade(self, trade: dict): if hasattr(TradeRow, k) })) + def save_order_with_trade(self, order: dict, trade: dict): + """Write an order and its trade in one transaction.""" + if self._fallback_store: + return self._fallback_store.save_order_with_trade(order, trade) + + with self._lock, self._session() as session: + row = session.get(OrderRow, order.get("order_id")) + if row: + for key, value in order.items(): + if hasattr(row, key): + setattr(row, key, value) + else: + session.add(OrderRow(**{ + k: v for k, v in order.items() if hasattr(OrderRow, k) + })) + session.add(TradeRow(**{ + k: v for k, v in trade.items() if hasattr(TradeRow, k) + })) + + def _state_store(self): + """Local metadata store for engine state / EOD markers. + + These are process-local runtime records; keeping them on the local + SQLite file avoids adding lifecycle tables to the market-data schema + and matches the default deployment. + """ + if self._fallback_store is not None: + return self._fallback_store + if not hasattr(self, "_local_state_store"): + from quant_core.store import Store + + self._local_state_store = Store() + return self._local_state_store + + def save_engine_state(self, state: dict, strategy_id: str): + return self._state_store().save_engine_state(state, strategy_id) + + def get_engine_state(self, strategy_id: str): + return self._state_store().get_engine_state(strategy_id) + + def has_eod_reconciliation(self, date: str) -> bool: + return self._state_store().has_eod_reconciliation(date) + + def mark_eod_reconciliation(self, date: str) -> None: + return self._state_store().mark_eod_reconciliation(date) + def save_position(self, position: dict): """Save or update a position.""" if self._fallback_store: @@ -388,24 +444,88 @@ class PostgresDataProvider(DataProvider): """PostgreSQL-backed data provider. Reads OHLCV data from a PostgreSQL/TimescaleDB database. - Falls back to synthetic data if connection fails. + + Adjustment contract: by default ``daily_prices.close`` must be the + **raw** (unadjusted) close and ``daily_prices.adj_factor`` the cumulative + adjustment divisor, so the pipeline computes + ``close_adj = close / adj_factor`` exactly once. This provider declares + that contract explicitly (``price_adjustment="raw"``, + ``adjusted_price_basis="hfq"``, ``adjustment_factor_available=True``) and + stamps the matching ``attrs`` on every panel it returns, so the pipeline + never has to infer the basis from factor variance. + + A database that only stores an already-adjusted close must say so with + ``close_adjustment="qfq"``/``"hfq"``; its ``adj_factor`` column is then + required to be a placeholder ``1.0``. A non-constant (or non-unit) + factor alongside an adjusted close is rejected with + :class:`~quant_platform.data.schema.DataQualityError`: dividing that + panel by the factor would double-adjust it. A NULL, zero, negative or + non-finite divisor is always rejected, never silently divided. + + ``st_available`` is False: this provider has no ST history (the static + ``stock_metadata.is_st`` flag is all it carries), so callers must treat + per-date ST screening as unavailable. SQL NULL ``is_st`` values are + coalesced to False for the static flag only. Args: - dsn: PostgreSQL connection string + dsn: PostgreSQL connection string. + close_adjustment: Basis of ``daily_prices.close``: ``"raw"`` + (default; OHLCV plus a divisor) or ``"qfq"``/``"hfq"`` when the + table stores an already-adjusted close with ``adj_factor=1``. """ - def __init__(self, dsn: str = "postgresql://quant:quant@localhost:5432/quant"): + # Explicit price-basis declaration, resolved by DataPipeline. ``raw`` + # close + a divisor column is the shared contract; the pipeline's own + # ``close / adj_factor`` series is the back-adjusted (hfq) one. + price_adjustment = "raw" + adjusted_price_basis = "hfq" + adjustment_factor_available = True + + def __init__( + self, + dsn: str = "postgresql://quant:quant@localhost:5432/quant", + close_adjustment: str = "raw", + ): if not HAS_SQLALCHEMY: raise ImportError("sqlalchemy required") + basis = str(close_adjustment).strip().lower() + if basis not in _PRICE_BASES: + raise ValueError( + "close_adjustment must be one of " + f"{_PRICE_BASES}, got {close_adjustment!r}" + ) + self.price_adjustment = basis + # raw close + divisor is the shared back-adjustment (hfq) contract. + self.adjusted_price_basis = "hfq" if basis == "raw" else basis + self.adjustment_factor_available = basis == "raw" + self._engine = create_engine(dsn, pool_pre_ping=True) self._connected = False + # No point-in-time ST history is supplied by this source. + self.st_available = False try: with self._engine.connect() as conn: conn.execute(text("SELECT 1")) self._connected = True except Exception as e: + # main.py relies on a construction failure to fall back to + # synthetic data, which the class docstring promises. Swallowing + # the error here produced a half-connected provider: main logged + # "Using PostgreSQL data provider" and the first pipeline call + # aborted with ConnectionError instead of falling back. logger.warning("PostgreSQL not available: %s", e) + raise ConnectionError(f"PostgreSQL not available: {e}") from e + + def _basis_attrs(self) -> dict: + """The explicit basis declaration this provider stamps on its panels.""" + return { + "price_basis": self.price_adjustment, + "adjusted_price_basis": self.adjusted_price_basis, + "adjustment_factor_available": bool( + self.adjustment_factor_available + ), + } def get_prices( self, @@ -423,14 +543,60 @@ def get_prices( ORDER BY date, code """ df = pd.read_sql(query, self._engine, params={"start": start_date, "end": end_date}) + pivot_cols = list(fields) if fields else list(_PIVOT_COLUMNS) + # The fields projection contract applies to empty results too: an + # unknown name must raise, not silently materialise a column that + # no data backed. + unknown_fields = [c for c in pivot_cols if c not in _PIVOT_COLUMNS] + if unknown_fields: + raise ValueError(f"Unknown price fields: {unknown_fields}") if df.empty: - return df + # Empty results must still satisfy the MultiIndex contract: + # downstream code calls get_level_values("asset") unconditionally. + # The basis declaration travels on the empty frame too so a run + # with no rows still resolves the provider's contract explicitly. + index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + empty = pd.DataFrame(index=index, columns=list(pivot_cols), dtype=float) + empty.attrs.update(self._basis_attrs()) + return empty + df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) - pivot_cols = fields or ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "turnover", "adj_factor"] - result = df.pivot(index="date", columns="code", values=pivot_cols[0]) - if fields and len(fields) > 1: - for f in fields[1:]: - result = pd.concat([result, df.pivot(index="date", columns="code", values=f)], axis=1) + missing = [c for c in pivot_cols if c not in df.columns] + if missing: + raise ValueError(f"Unknown price fields: {missing}") + + # Validate the documented adjustment convention before it reaches the + # pipeline's blind division. A NULL/zero/negative/infinite divisor + # would produce inf/NaN adjusted prices or silently halve returns. + factors = pd.to_numeric(df["adj_factor"], errors="coerce") + factor_values = factors.to_numpy(dtype=float) + valid = np.isfinite(factor_values) & (factor_values > 0) + if not bool(valid.all()): + raise DataQualityError( + "daily_prices.adj_factor must be a positive finite value " + f"(declared close basis {self.price_adjustment!r}); " + f"{int((~valid).sum())} row(s) violate the contract" + ) + if self.price_adjustment in {"qfq", "hfq"}: + # The DB stores an already-adjusted close, so the factor is a + # placeholder. Anything else means the panel would be divided + # again by the pipeline -- the classic double-adjustment error. + non_unit = int((np.abs(factor_values - 1.0) > 1e-12).sum()) + if non_unit: + raise DataQualityError( + "daily_prices.close is declared " + f"{self.price_adjustment!r} but adj_factor is not 1.0 on " + f"{non_unit} row(s). The pipeline divides close by " + "adj_factor, so this panel would be double-adjusted. " + "Store raw close plus a divisor, or an already-adjusted " + "close with adj_factor=1." + ) + + # Contract (data/providers/base.py): MultiIndex (date, asset) with one + # column per field. + result = df.set_index(["date", "code"])[pivot_cols].sort_index() + result.index = result.index.set_names(["date", "asset"]) + result.attrs.update(self._basis_attrs()) return result def get_financials( @@ -441,17 +607,45 @@ def get_financials( if not self._connected: raise ConnectionError("PostgreSQL not connected") - query = """ - SELECT date, code, market_cap, pe_ratio, pb_ratio, roe, revenue, net_profit + select_cols = ", ".join( + ["date", "code", *FINANCIAL_COLUMNS, "publish_date"] + ) + query = f""" + SELECT {select_cols} FROM financials WHERE date BETWEEN :start AND :end ORDER BY date, code """ df = pd.read_sql(query, self._engine, params={"start": start_date, "end": end_date}) - if not df.empty: - df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) - df = df.set_index(["date", "code"]) - return df + + index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + if df.empty: + return pd.DataFrame( + index=index, columns=[*FINANCIAL_COLUMNS, "publish_date"] + ) + + df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) + missing = [c for c in FINANCIAL_COLUMNS if c not in df.columns] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + "financials table is missing required columns: " + f"{missing} (expected FINANCIAL_COLUMNS from data.schema)" + ) + # publish_date is required for point-in-time use; when the table does + # not carry it, expose NaT explicitly instead of pretending the panel + # is PIT-capable. + if "publish_date" not in df.columns: + logger.warning( + "financials table has no publish_date; get_financials_as_of " + "cannot filter this panel point-in-time" + ) + df["publish_date"] = pd.NaT + else: + df["publish_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["publish_date"], errors="coerce") + + df = df.set_index(["date", "code"]) + df.index = df.index.set_names(["date", "asset"]) + return df.sort_index() def get_benchmark( self, @@ -470,19 +664,52 @@ def get_benchmark( if not df.empty: df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"]) df = df.set_index("date") - return df["return_value"] - return pd.Series(dtype=float) + series = df["return_value"] + series.name = "benchmark" + return series + return pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: if not self._connected: raise ConnectionError("PostgreSQL not connected") - query = "SELECT code, sector, market_cap_group, is_st, listing_date FROM stock_metadata" + query = ( + "SELECT code, sector, market_cap_group, is_st, listing_date, " + "delisting_date FROM stock_metadata" + ) df = pd.read_sql(query, self._engine) - if not df.empty: - df = df.set_index("code") + if df.empty: + return pd.DataFrame( + columns=["sector", "market_cap_group", "is_st", + "listing_date", "delisting_date"], + index=pd.Index([], name="asset"), + ) + + df = df.set_index("code") + df.index.name = "asset" + # SQL NULL means "unknown"; the static flag cannot express that and a + # bare `~is_st` on object NULLs raises TypeError downstream. Coalesce + # for this static flag, and expose st_available=False on the provider + # so the absence of a real ST history remains visible. + if "is_st" in df.columns: + df["is_st"] = df["is_st"].fillna(False).astype(bool) + for col in ("listing_date", "delisting_date"): + if col not in df.columns: + df[col] = pd.NaT + df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col], errors="coerce") + if "sector" not in df.columns: + df["sector"] = "Unknown" + if "market_cap_group" not in df.columns: + df["market_cap_group"] = "mid" + df.attrs["st_available"] = False return df + def get_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Explicitly expose that no ST history is available.""" + return pd.DataFrame( + columns=["asset", "trigger_date", "announce_date", "end_date", "is_st"] + ) + def close(self): if self._engine: self._engine.dispose() diff --git a/data/providers/synthetic.py b/data/providers/synthetic.py index b217320..8242017 100644 --- a/data/providers/synthetic.py +++ b/data/providers/synthetic.py @@ -27,8 +27,13 @@ import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS, + DataProvider, + empty_corporate_actions, +) from quant_platform.data.schema import SECTOR_WEIGHTS, SECTORS +from quant_platform.utils.exchange_calendar import trading_days from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) @@ -37,6 +42,14 @@ class SyntheticDataProvider(DataProvider): """Generates a complete synthetic A-share dataset. + Price basis: the stored ``close``/OHLCV are the **raw** traded prices; + a corporate action scales the raw path by ``adj_factor`` (a divisor) and + the pipeline's ``close / adj_factor`` is the generated continuous path + (``qfq``-style, anchored at the sample start). This is the same data + contract the real providers follow, so money paths can use ``close`` and + research can use ``close_adj`` without either silently borrowing the + other's levels. + Alpha strength levels (configurable via alpha_strength): - 0.00: Pure noise. No predictable patterns. For research validation. - 0.03: Weak/realistic (default). IC ~ 0.01-0.02, mimicking real A-share. @@ -49,6 +62,21 @@ class SyntheticDataProvider(DataProvider): This means factor[t] naturally correlates with future returns[t+1]. """ + #: ``close`` is the raw traded price; ``adj_factor`` is the divisor that + #: produces the return-generating continuous series. + price_adjustment = "raw" + adjusted_price_basis = "qfq" + adjustment_factor_available = True + #: The generator emits an explicit cash/split feed consistent with the + #: ``adj_factor`` divisor (see :meth:`get_corporate_actions`). + corporate_actions_available = True + + #: Synthetic data is regenerated deterministically for the requested + #: range; there is no cached panel to append to, and regenerating is + #: both cheap and exact. The incremental CLI path therefore warns and + #: performs a full fetch (never a silent no-op that leaves data stale). + supports_incremental = False + def __init__( self, n_stocks: int = 500, @@ -80,11 +108,22 @@ def __init__( self._financials: pd.DataFrame | None = None self._benchmark: pd.Series | None = None self._metadata: pd.DataFrame | None = None + # Created in `_generate_all`; initialised here so public accessors do + # not raise AttributeError on a fresh instance. + self._st_timeseries: pd.DataFrame | None = None # Derived data self._dates: pd.DatetimeIndex | None = None self._assets: list[str] | None = None self._sector_map: dict[str, str] | None = None + self._industry_changes_cache: pd.DataFrame | None = None + # asset -> generated corporate-action dates (diagnostics for tests) + self._corporate_action_days: dict[str, set[pd.Timestamp]] = {} + #: Explicit cash/split feed generated alongside ``adj_factor``. + self._corporate_actions_frame: pd.DataFrame | None = None + #: Pre-adjustment continuous close (the generated research path), + #: exposed for consistency tests; never part of the data contract. + self._continuous_close: pd.DataFrame | None = None # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Public interface (DataProvider contract) @@ -102,7 +141,15 @@ def get_prices( pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) ] if fields: - df = df[fields] + unknown = [col for col in fields if col not in df.columns] + if unknown: + raise ValueError(f"Unknown price fields: {unknown}") + df = df[list(fields)] + df.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": "raw", + "adjusted_price_basis": self.adjusted_price_basis, + "adjustment_factor_available": True, + }) return df def get_financials( @@ -132,6 +179,29 @@ def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: self._generate_all() return self._metadata + def get_corporate_actions( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Cash dividends and splits consistent with the generated ``adj_factor``. + + The generator draws ~5% action-events per asset-year. Each event is + either a cash dividend (0.3%-2.5% of the pre-event raw price, rounded + to the cent) or a split (2:1, 3:1 or 3:2). The raw close is adjusted + on the ex-date (``quantity * ratio`` shares, price ``/ ratio``; cash + dividend subtracted from the raw price) and the ``adj_factor`` divisor + absorbs exactly the same event, so ``close / adj_factor`` -- the + research path -- stays continuous. Fully deterministic per seed. + """ + if self._prices is None or self._corporate_actions_frame is None: + self._generate_all() + frame = self._corporate_actions_frame + start = pd.Timestamp(start_date) + end = pd.Timestamp(end_date) + mask = (frame["ex_date"] >= start) & (frame["ex_date"] <= end) + return frame.loc[mask].reset_index(drop=True).copy() + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Generation # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -140,7 +210,17 @@ def _generate_all(self) -> None: logger.info("Generating synthetic A-share data: %d stocks, %s to %s", self.n_stocks, self.start_date.date(), self.end_date.date()) - self._dates = pd.bdate_range(self.start_date, self.end_date, name="date") + # Exchange sessions, not business days: ~7.5% of weekdays are + # exchange holidays (Spring Festival, National Day, ...). A + # business-day grid put prices, the benchmark and financial + # visibility dates on days the live scheduler correctly treats as + # closed, so research and live disagreed on the trading calendar. + self._dates = trading_days(self.start_date, self.end_date) + if len(self._dates) == 0: + raise ValueError( + f"Synthetic sample {self.start_date.date()}..{self.end_date.date()} " + "contains no exchange trading days" + ) self._assets = [f"{i:06d}.SH" if i % 3 != 0 else f"{i:06d}.SZ" for i in range(1, self.n_stocks + 1)] @@ -176,12 +256,20 @@ def _generate_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: p=[0.10, 0.30, 0.60], ) - # Listing dates: some stocks list during the period + # Listing dates: some stocks list during the period. The offset is + # clamped to the sample: `integers(30, n_dates // 2)` raises + # `ValueError: low >= high` when a short research window (e.g. one + # quarter, ~60 sessions) has fewer than ~60 days. listing_dates = pd.Series(self.start_date, index=range(n)) late_listers = self.rng.choice(n, size=int(n * 0.15), replace=False) - for i in late_listers: - offset = self.rng.integers(30, len(self._dates) // 2) - listing_dates.iloc[i] = self._dates[offset] + n_dates = len(self._dates) + if n_dates >= 2: + offset_low = min(30, max(1, n_dates // 4)) + offset_high = max(offset_low + 1, n_dates // 2) + for i in late_listers: + offset = int(self.rng.integers(offset_low, offset_high)) + offset = min(offset, n_dates - 1) + listing_dates.iloc[i] = self._dates[offset] # ST status (~3% of stocks, random assignment) is_st = self.rng.choice([True, False], size=n, p=[0.03, 0.97]) @@ -339,13 +427,23 @@ def _build_price_data(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: init_prices = np.exp(self.rng.uniform(np.log(5), np.log(200), size=n_assets)) # Close prices: cumulative product of (1 + r) + listing = self._metadata["listing_date"].values close_prices = np.zeros((n_dates, n_assets)) close_prices[0] = init_prices * (1 + returns.iloc[0].values) + # Pre-listing days must be missing from the very first row. Setting + # them only inside the loop left day 0 priced, and the 30-day + # forward-fill then invented up to 30 pre-listing closes from it. + close_prices[0, self._dates[0] < listing] = np.nan for t in range(1, n_dates): - # Handle listing: stocks not yet listed have NaN - mask = self._dates[t] >= self._metadata["listing_date"].values - close_prices[t] = close_prices[t - 1] * (1 + returns.iloc[t].values) + mask = self._dates[t] >= listing + previous = close_prices[t - 1].copy() + # A stock listing today has no previous close; seed it from its + # initial price. Multiplying the previous row's NaN made the + # stock NaN for the rest of the sample. + newly_listed = mask & np.isnan(previous) + previous[newly_listed] = init_prices[newly_listed] + close_prices[t] = previous * (1 + returns.iloc[t].values) close_prices[t, ~mask] = np.nan # Open, High, Low: intraday randomness @@ -355,7 +453,11 @@ def _build_price_data(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: open_prices = close_prices * open_ratio # For t>0, open is based on prior close with gap for t in range(1, n_dates): - open_prices[t] = close_prices[t - 1] * open_ratio[t] + previous = close_prices[t - 1].copy() + newly_listed = (self._dates[t] >= listing) & np.isnan(previous) + previous[newly_listed] = init_prices[newly_listed] + open_prices[t] = previous * open_ratio[t] + open_prices[np.isnan(close_prices)] = np.nan high_prices = np.maximum(open_prices, close_prices) * (1 + intraday_range / 2) low_prices = np.minimum(open_prices, close_prices) * (1 - intraday_range / 2) @@ -375,18 +477,112 @@ def _build_price_data(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: # VWAP: average of OHLC vwap = (open_prices + high_prices + low_prices + close_prices) / 4 - # Adj factor (random corporate actions: ~5% of stocks per year) - adj_factor = np.ones((n_dates, n_assets)) + # Corporate actions: discrete splits and cash dividends. + # + # The action *dates* are drawn exactly as before (same RNG draws in + # the same order), so existing seeds keep their schedules. Event + # parameters use a dedicated RNG: adding them must not shift the + # benchmark/financials random streams that follow this method. + action_days: dict[int, np.ndarray] = {} for i in range(n_assets): n_actions = self.rng.poisson(0.05 * n_dates / 252) if n_actions > 0: action_dates = self.rng.choice(n_dates, size=n_actions, replace=False) action_dates.sort() - factor = 1.0 - for d in range(n_dates): - if d in action_dates: - factor *= self.rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2) - adj_factor[d, i] = factor + action_days[i] = action_dates.astype(int) + # Preserve the legacy RNG stream: the pre-explicit-action + # generator drew one ``uniform(0.8, 1.2)`` per action date + # inside this loop. Those draws are gone, but every later + # generator (suspension sampling, benchmark, financials) must + # see the same stream or seed-pinned expectations shift. + self.rng.uniform(0.8, 1.2, size=len(action_dates)) + + # The pre-adjustment close matrix is the generated continuous path; + # `adj_factor` is exactly the divisor that maps it to the raw price. + self._continuous_close = pd.DataFrame( + close_prices.copy(), index=self._dates, columns=self._assets, + ) + + adj_factor = np.ones((n_dates, n_assets)) + # Diagnostic ledger of the generated action dates, keyed by asset. + # Used by regression tests that need to know when an action fell on a + # suspension day; it does not affect any generated value. + self._corporate_action_days = {} + action_rows: list[dict] = [] + rng_actions = np.random.default_rng(self.seed + 977) + for i in sorted(action_days): + asset = self._assets[i] + factor = 1.0 + days = action_days[i] + cursor = 0 + for d in range(n_dates): + if cursor < len(days) and d == int(days[cursor]): + cursor += 1 + continuation = close_prices[d, i] + # Pre-listing rows have no price; an action before the + # listing date is meaningless and is skipped (the date + # also stays out of the diagnostic ledger). + if np.isfinite(continuation) and continuation > 0: + ex_date = self._dates[d] + if rng_actions.random() < 0.55: + # Cash dividend: subtract the per-share amount + # from the raw close. The amount is a fraction + # of the pre-event raw price, rounded to cents, + # and the divisor falls by exactly cash / C_d so + # close_adj = close / adj_factor stays continuous. + pre_raw = float(continuation) * factor + cash = round( + pre_raw * float(rng_actions.uniform(0.003, 0.025)), + 2, + ) + cash = max(cash, 0.01) + factor = factor - cash / float(continuation) + action_rows.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "cash", + "cash_per_share": cash, + "split_ratio": 1.0, + }) + else: + # Split: raw price divides by the ratio and the + # divisor divides by the same ratio. + ratio = float(rng_actions.choice( + [2.0, 3.0, 1.5], p=[0.6, 0.15, 0.25], + )) + factor = factor / ratio + action_rows.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "split", + "cash_per_share": 0.0, + "split_ratio": ratio, + }) + self._corporate_action_days.setdefault(asset, set()).add( + ex_date + ) + adj_factor[d, i] = factor + + self._corporate_actions_frame = ( + pd.DataFrame(action_rows, columns=list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS)) + if action_rows else empty_corporate_actions() + ) + if not self._corporate_actions_frame.empty: + self._corporate_actions_frame = ( + self._corporate_actions_frame + .sort_values(["ex_date", "asset", "kind"], kind="stable") + .reset_index(drop=True) + ) + + # A corporate action must move the RAW price path by the adjustment + # factor: P_adj = P_raw / adj_factor. Previously only adj_factor moved, + # so the pipeline's close/adj_factor series jumped by up to ±20% on a + # random date -- fake returns and fake limit-up/down flags. + open_prices = open_prices * adj_factor + high_prices = high_prices * adj_factor + low_prices = low_prices * adj_factor + close_prices = close_prices * adj_factor + vwap = vwap * adj_factor # Build MultiIndex DataFrame arrays = [] @@ -407,17 +603,82 @@ def _build_price_data(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: ) df = df.set_index(["date", "asset"]).sort_index() - # Apply suspension: ~2% of stock-days are suspended (NaN prices) + # Apply suspension: ~2% of tradable stock-days are suspended (NaN + # prices). Only rows that actually have a price are eligible -- marking + # a pre-listing NaN row as "suspended" would have no stale close to + # forward-fill from. n_total = n_dates * n_assets - suspended = self.rng.choice(n_total, size=int(n_total * 0.02), replace=False) + eligible = np.flatnonzero(df["close"].notna().to_numpy()) + suspended = self.rng.choice(eligible, size=int(n_total * 0.02), replace=False) # We do this via the underlying arrays for efficiency flat_idx = np.array(suspended) for col in ["open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", "turnover", "vwap"]: df.iloc[flat_idx, df.columns.get_loc(col)] = np.nan + # The adjustment factor is part of the stale mark. Start by freezing + # it on every suspended row (a forward-filled close must pair with the + # factor it was carried over with, or close_adj jumps: e.g. 65.50 -> + # 76.56). Action rows are then restored with a compensating raw-price + # scale below, which keeps close_adj continuous *and* gives the paper + # book a post-action stale mark. + df.iloc[flat_idx, df.columns.get_loc("adj_factor")] = np.nan + df["adj_factor"] = df.groupby("asset")["adj_factor"].ffill() + # Forward-fill suspension gaps (max 30 days) df = df.groupby("asset").ffill(limit=30) + # A corporate action whose ex-date is suspended: the stale RAW mark + # must be the *post-action* level (previous traded raw * F_action / + # F_previous) while `close / adj_factor` stays at the last clean + # close. Freezing the action factor (the old behaviour) left the raw + # price at its pre-action level; a paper book that then doubles the + # share count values the position at twice its worth until the resume + # session (and a cash dividend leaves the mark un-reduced while the + # cash is credited). Restore the action factor on those rows and + # scale the forwarded raw prices by the same ratio. + if ( + self._corporate_actions_frame is not None + and not self._corporate_actions_frame.empty + ): + asset_index = {asset: i for i, asset in enumerate(self._assets)} + date_index = {date: d for d, date in enumerate(self._dates)} + suspended_grid = np.zeros((n_dates, n_assets), dtype=bool) + for position in flat_idx: + row_date, row_asset = df.index[int(position)] + suspended_grid[ + date_index[pd.Timestamp(row_date)], asset_index[row_asset] + ] = True + for _, action in self._corporate_actions_frame.iterrows(): + d = date_index.get(pd.Timestamp(action["ex_date"])) + i = asset_index.get(action["asset"]) + if d is None or i is None or not suspended_grid[d, i]: + continue + traded_before = [ + t for t in range(d) if not suspended_grid[t, i] + ] + if not traded_before: + continue + factor_reference = adj_factor[traded_before[-1], i] + factor_action = adj_factor[d, i] + if not (factor_reference > 0 and factor_action > 0): + continue + scale = factor_action / factor_reference + row_position = int(df.index.get_loc( + (self._dates[d], self._assets[i]), + )) + for column in ("open", "high", "low", "close", "vwap"): + df.iloc[row_position, df.columns.get_loc(column)] *= scale + df.iloc[ + row_position, df.columns.get_loc("adj_factor") + ] = factor_action + + # Mark the stale rows. Forward-filling keeps the price path realistic, + # but downstream return computation must not difference across the + # fill: doing so fabricates a zero return followed by a multi-day move + # -- a fake reversal signal (issue #58). + df["is_suspended"] = False + df.iloc[flat_idx, df.columns.get_loc("is_suspended")] = True + return df # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -443,9 +704,20 @@ def _generate_financials(self) -> pd.DataFrame: """ n_assets = len(self._assets) - # Find quarter-end dates in our date range + # Find quarter-end trading days in our date range. The last exchange + # session of each calendar quarter is the report date (the old + # business-day grid behaved the same way). Deriving it from + # `is_quarter_end` broke once the date index was filtered through the + # exchange calendar: pandas' `is_quarter_end` is frequency-aware, and + # a filtered index has no business-day frequency, so quarter ends + # that fell on a weekend (e.g. 2023-09-30) silently stopped producing + # reports. all_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(self._dates) - quarter_ends = all_dates[all_dates.is_quarter_end] + if len(all_dates): + quarter_of = all_dates.to_period("Q") + quarter_ends = all_dates[~quarter_of.duplicated(keep="last")] + else: + quarter_ends = all_dates n_quarters = len(quarter_ends) # Base financial characteristics (cross-sectional) @@ -529,7 +801,36 @@ def _generate_financials(self) -> pd.DataFrame: # back to the start of the sample. pit = df.reset_index() pit["fiscal_period_end"] = pit["date"] - pit["date"] = pit["publish_date"] + pit["publish_date"] = pd.to_datetime(pit["publish_date"]) + + # A publication date is a calendar date; the panel only has trading + # days. Reindexing straight onto `publish_date` silently dropped every + # report published on a weekend/holiday (the (date, asset) key simply + # did not exist), leaving 14-16 of 20 quarters. Map each report to the + # first trading day on/after its publication instead: the information + # was public by then, and no report is lost. + publish_values = pit["publish_date"].to_numpy() + positions = all_dates.searchsorted(publish_values, side="left") + + # A report published after the last trading day in the sample is not + # visible in-sample at all; publishing it on the last day would be a + # look-ahead. Drop it explicitly (with a count) instead of letting + # reindex lose it silently. + in_sample = positions < len(all_dates) + dropped = int((~in_sample).sum()) + if dropped: + logger.debug( + "Financials: %d asset-reports published after the last " + "trading day (%s) are outside the sample", + dropped, all_dates[-1].date(), + ) + pit = pit.loc[in_sample].copy() + pit["date"] = all_dates[positions[in_sample]] + + # A later report for the same asset/day wins; quarters are ~91 days + # apart so this should never trigger, but duplicate index labels would + # make reindex raise. + pit = pit.drop_duplicates(subset=["date", "asset"], keep="last") pit = pit.set_index(["date", "asset"]).sort_index() # Forward-fill to daily frequency by joining with all dates @@ -567,9 +868,20 @@ def _generate_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: # ST events: 1-2 episodes per ST stock n_episodes = self.rng.integers(1, 3) + n_dates = len(self._dates) + # The trigger draw used to be `integers(60, n_dates - 60)`, + # which raises `ValueError: low >= high` on short research + # windows (any sample under ~120 sessions). Clamp the window to + # the sample; skip ST entirely when there is no room for a + # meaningful episode (a one- or two-day sample). + if n_dates < 5: + continue + trigger_low = min(60, max(1, n_dates // 4)) + trigger_high = max(trigger_low + 1, n_dates - 60) for _ in range(n_episodes): # Random trigger date - trigger_idx = self.rng.integers(60, len(self._dates) - 60) + trigger_idx = int(self.rng.integers(trigger_low, trigger_high)) + trigger_idx = min(trigger_idx, n_dates - 1) trigger_date = self._dates[trigger_idx] # Announcement lag: 1-3 trading days after trigger @@ -591,7 +903,11 @@ def _generate_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: }) if not records: - return pd.DataFrame(columns=["asset", "announce_date", "is_st"]) + # Always expose the full contract columns, even when empty: the + # pipeline's `_has_usable_st_timeseries` checks for `end_date`. + return pd.DataFrame( + columns=["asset", "trigger_date", "announce_date", "end_date", "is_st"] + ) return pd.DataFrame(records) @@ -619,10 +935,25 @@ def get_industry_changes(self) -> pd.DataFrame: Returns: DataFrame with columns: asset, industry, effective_date """ + if self._industry_changes_cache is not None: + return self._industry_changes_cache.copy() + if self._sector_map is None: + self._generate_all() + + # A dedicated RNG: industry changes must not depend on how many times + # this method is called or on other draws from the shared generator, + # otherwise two `DataPipeline.run()` calls on the same provider saw + # different classifications (and different PIT neutralization). + rng = np.random.default_rng(self.seed + 101) records = [] all_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(self._dates) + if len(all_dates): + quarter_of = all_dates.to_period("Q") + quarter_ends = all_dates[~quarter_of.duplicated(keep="last")] + else: + quarter_ends = all_dates # Industry changes happen at semi-annual boundaries - semi_annual = all_dates[all_dates.is_quarter_end][::2] # Every other quarter end + semi_annual = quarter_ends[::2] # Every other quarter end for i, asset in enumerate(self._assets): current_industry = self._sector_map[asset] @@ -635,8 +966,8 @@ def get_industry_changes(self) -> pd.DataFrame: # ~5% chance of reclassification per semi-annual period for change_date in semi_annual: - if self.rng.random() < 0.05: - new_industry = self.rng.choice( + if rng.random() < 0.05: + new_industry = rng.choice( [s for s in SECTORS if s != current_industry] ) records.append({ @@ -646,4 +977,6 @@ def get_industry_changes(self) -> pd.DataFrame: }) current_industry = new_industry - return pd.DataFrame(records) + frame = pd.DataFrame(records) + self._industry_changes_cache = frame + return frame.copy() diff --git a/data/providers/tushare_loader.py b/data/providers/tushare_loader.py index bf8485c..fdfcd6a 100644 --- a/data/providers/tushare_loader.py +++ b/data/providers/tushare_loader.py @@ -1,24 +1,65 @@ """Tushare real data provider for A-share market. Connects to Tushare Pro API to fetch actual CSI 300 constituent data with: -- 前复权 (qfq) adjusted prices -- HDF5 local caching for fast reloads -- Real suspension (停牌) and ST handling -- Delisting tracking (survivorship bias aware) -- Graceful fallback if Tushare token not available +- **Raw** OHLCV prices plus the corporate-action ``adj_factor`` divisor. + Tushare's native ``adj_factor`` is a cumulative multiplier + (``hfq = raw * adj_factor``); the provider inverts it to the shared + divisor contract (``adj_factor = 1 / native_factor``), so the pipeline's + ``close_adj = close / adj_factor`` reproduces the same hfq series as + before while ``close`` remains a tradeable CNY price (D15/D18). Research + returns are therefore unchanged; money paths use ``close``. +- HDF5 local caching for fast reloads (atomic temp-file + ``os.replace``) +- Real suspension (停牌) handling +- Delisting tracking (survivorship-bias aware: metadata includes + ``list_status`` D/P names and per-date index membership is retained) +- Point-in-time ST history derived from the ``namechange`` endpoint: one + API call per constituent, raw rows cached in HDF5, episodes exposed on the + shared ``asset/trigger_date/announce_date/end_date/is_st`` contract +- Bounded retries with exponential backoff; a failed batch raises + :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` instead of silently shrinking the universe +- Unit normalisation at the provider boundary: volume in shares, amount in + CNY, turnover as a fraction, market cap in CNY. Requires: TUSHARE_TOKEN env var or config value (free registration at tushare.pro) """ from __future__ import annotations +import hashlib import os +import time +import uuid from pathlib import Path import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS, + INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS, + DataFetchIncompleteError, + DataProvider, + cache_manifest_matches, + canonicalize_panel_index, + complete_panel_marker, + deduplicate_panel, + empty_corporate_actions, + exchange_sessions, + expected_data_end, + incremental_fetch_start, + incremental_marker_extra, + last_day_missing_symbols, + normalize_corporate_actions, + panel_last_date, + provider_cache_lock, + read_cache_manifest, + read_incremental_status, + sessions_after, + symbols_on_date, + write_cache_manifest, + write_incremental_status, +) +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import normalize_symbol from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) @@ -27,6 +68,66 @@ CACHE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "cache" CACHE_DIR.mkdir(exist_ok=True) +# Cache format/semantics version. Combined with DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION and the +# adjustment convention in the sidecar manifest, so a schema bump (or a change +# in what the HDF5 file means) refetches instead of replaying stale data (D13). +# v4: price semantics changed from pre-multiplied hfq levels (adj_factor=1) to +# raw OHLCV plus a divisor; v3 files must never be replayed. +# v5: the cache persists the raw ``namechange`` ST feed (``/st_namechange``) +# so derived ST episodes survive reloads; v4 files carry no ST evidence and +# would silently disable ST screening on real data, so they must never be +# replayed. The sidecar manifest records ``st_fetch_status`` so a cache built +# while the endpoint was unavailable is not mistaken for "no ST names". +# v6: the manifest also records ST availability/episode count, the incremental +# window coverage boundary/failure marker and a raw-feed fingerprint. v5 +# manifests lack these fields, so an empty and a populated v5 feed would share +# one pipeline cache identity; they must be retired (R14 review N12/N14). +_PROVIDER_CACHE_VERSION = "v6" +#: Basis of the stored ``close`` column (raw traded price). +_PRICE_ADJUSTMENT = "raw" +#: Basis of ``close / adj_factor`` (the return-generating series). +_ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS = "hfq" + +# Tushare unit conventions (see https://tushare.pro/document/2): +# vol is in 手 (lots, 100 shares), amount in 千元 (thousand CNY), +# total_mv in 万元 (ten thousand CNY), turnover_rate in percent. +_LOTS_TO_SHARES = 100.0 +_THOUSAND_CNY_TO_CNY = 1_000.0 +_TEN_THOUSAND_CNY_TO_CNY = 10_000.0 + +#: ``namechange`` fields requested for every constituent. ``end_date`` is +#: empty for a name that is still in force, hence the sample-end fill below. +_NAMECHANGE_FIELDS = "ts_code,name,start_date,end_date,ann_date,change_reason" +#: One initial attempt plus two retries per symbol (taskbook R14 §2.1). +_ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS = 3 +#: Above this universe size the per-symbol fetch is still executed, but the +#: estimated wall-clock cost is logged instead of being silently skipped. +_ST_FETCH_WARN_THRESHOLD = 500 +#: Rough per-call latency used only for that estimate. +_ST_FETCH_SECONDS_PER_CALL = 0.35 +#: Tushare's per-call row ceiling. A window response at or above this may be +#: truncated; the incremental refresh then warns and records the failure +#: instead of silently treating a partial window as complete. +_NAMECHANGE_ROW_CAP = 10_000 +#: Episode table contract, identical to Synthetic/Baostock (R7a). +_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS = [ + "asset", "trigger_date", "announce_date", "end_date", "is_st", +] +#: Raw ``namechange`` frame written to the cache; kept as returned so the +#: cache is evidence, not a derived view. +_ST_NAMECHANGE_COLUMNS = [ + "ts_code", "name", "start_date", "end_date", "ann_date", "change_reason", +] + + +def _empty_st_timeseries() -> pd.DataFrame: + """The documented empty ST-episode frame (never ``None``).""" + return pd.DataFrame(columns=_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS) + + +def _empty_namechange() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.DataFrame(columns=_ST_NAMECHANGE_COLUMNS) + class TushareProvider(DataProvider): """Real A-share data via Tushare Pro API with HDF5 caching. @@ -38,8 +139,24 @@ class TushareProvider(DataProvider): Data is cached to HDF5 files after first fetch. Subsequent runs reload from cache in ~1 second vs ~30 seconds for API fetch. + + ST history is derived from Tushare's ``namechange`` endpoint (one call + per constituent, raw rows cached under ``/st_namechange``) and exposed on + the shared episode contract by :meth:`get_st_timeseries`. An empty + episode table with ``st_available = False`` means *no usable ST evidence* + -- either no ST names appeared in the fetched history, or the endpoint + was unavailable -- so callers must treat ST screening as unavailable; + the pipeline then leaves ST names eligible rather than pretending every + stock is non-ST. """ + price_adjustment = _PRICE_ADJUSTMENT + adjusted_price_basis = _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS + adjustment_factor_available = True + #: Sessions appended from an existing cache via :meth:`update`; a full + #: fetch is always available as the fallback. + supports_incremental = True + def __init__( self, token: str | None = None, @@ -47,12 +164,16 @@ def __init__( end_date: str = "2025-12-31", index_code: str = "000300.SH", # CSI 300 cache_dir: str | Path | None = None, + max_retries: int = 3, + retry_backoff: float = 1.0, ): self.token = token or os.environ.get("TUSHARE_TOKEN") self.start_date = start_date self.end_date = end_date self.index_code = index_code self.cache_dir = Path(cache_dir) if cache_dir else CACHE_DIR + self.max_retries = max(1, int(max_retries)) + self.retry_backoff = max(0.0, float(retry_backoff)) self._ts_api = None self._prices: pd.DataFrame | None = None @@ -60,6 +181,51 @@ def __init__( self._benchmark: pd.Series | None = None self._metadata: pd.DataFrame | None = None self._constituent_history: pd.DataFrame | None = None + #: Completion marker/provenance of the loaded panel (D32). Populated + #: from the cache manifest on load and after every successful fetch. + self._data_status: dict = {} + + #: Corporate-action feed (``dividend`` endpoint). Fetched lazily by + #: :meth:`get_corporate_actions`; ``corporate_actions_available`` is + #: True only after at least one successful API call. + self._corporate_actions: pd.DataFrame | None = None + self._corporate_actions_range: tuple[pd.Timestamp, pd.Timestamp] | None = None + self.corporate_actions_available = False + + # Point-in-time ST history from ``namechange`` (R14). ``st_available`` + # is True exactly when the derived episode table is non-empty. + self.st_available = False + #: Raw namechange rows (``None`` = the endpoint never produced a + #: usable response; an empty frame means it responded with no rows). + self._st_namechange: pd.DataFrame | None = None + #: Derived episode table (``None`` = not resolved yet). + self._st_timeseries: pd.DataFrame | None = None + #: ``ok`` / ``partial`` / ``unavailable`` -- persisted in the cache + #: manifest so an unavailable endpoint is never replayed as "no ST". + self._st_fetch_status = "unavailable" + #: Outcome of the last incremental namechange-window refresh: + #: ``ok`` / ``failed`` / ``not_attempted`` (persisted in the manifest + #: so a failed refresh stays visible to later runs). + self._st_last_window_refresh = "not_attempted" + #: Last date for which the namechange feed is known to cover all + #: announcements. Advanced only by a full fetch or a successful, + #: untruncated incremental window; a failed window leaves it in place + #: so the next window starts before the failed interval (sticky gap). + self._st_covered_until: pd.Timestamp | None = None + #: Symbols whose namechange call failed after all attempts (reporting + #: surface; also recorded in the cache manifest). + self.st_failed_symbols: list[str] = [] + #: Per-instance token used only by :meth:`_st_identity_status` when no + #: provider cache exists, so a deleted cache never collides with a + #: previously cached degraded (ST-off) data-stage panel. + self._st_identity_nonce = uuid.uuid4().hex + # Where get_benchmark() data came from: "index_daily" or + # "equal_weight_fallback". Recorded in the cache manifest and pipeline + # provenance so a degraded benchmark is not mistaken for CSI 300. + self.benchmark_source = "unknown" + # True only when *date-stamped* index membership (index_weight) + # succeeded; the fallbacks are a single end-date snapshot. + self.universe_history_available = False self._has_token = self.token is not None and len(self.token) > 10 @@ -79,18 +245,68 @@ def ts_api(self): if self._ts_api is None and self._has_token: try: import tushare as ts + + # tushare 1.4.x posts the token and payload over plain HTTP + # (`http://api.waditu.com/dataapi`). Force TLS before the + # client is built so credentials never travel in clear text. + from tushare.pro.client import DataApi + + if not getattr(DataApi, "_DataApi__http_url", "").startswith("https://"): + DataApi._DataApi__http_url = "https://api.waditu.com/dataapi" ts.set_token(self.token) self._ts_api = ts.pro_api() - logger.info("Tushare Pro API connected") + logger.info("Tushare Pro API connected (https)") except Exception as e: logger.error("Failed to connect Tushare: %s", e) self._has_token = False return self._ts_api + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Retry helper + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _call_with_retries(self, what: str, func, *args, **kwargs): + """Run ``func`` with bounded retries and exponential backoff. + + Raises :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` after the final failed attempt. + """ + last_exc: Exception | None = None + for attempt in range(self.max_retries): + try: + return func(*args, **kwargs) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - API errors are provider-specific + last_exc = exc + if attempt + 1 < self.max_retries: + delay = self.retry_backoff * (2 ** attempt) + logger.warning( + "%s failed (attempt %d/%d): %s; retrying in %.1fs", + what, attempt + 1, self.max_retries, exc, delay, + ) + if delay > 0: + time.sleep(delay) + logger.error("%s failed after %d attempts: %s", what, self.max_retries, last_exc) + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + f"{what} failed after {self.max_retries} attempt(s): {last_exc}" + ) from last_exc + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Public interface # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + @staticmethod + def _project_fields(df: pd.DataFrame, fields: list[str] | None) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Apply the shared ``fields=`` contract. + + Unknown names raise ``ValueError`` (consistent with the other + providers) and the requested order is preserved. + """ + if not fields: + return df + unknown = [col for col in fields if col not in df.columns] + if unknown: + raise ValueError(f"Unknown price fields: {unknown}") + return df[list(fields)] + def get_prices( self, start_date: str, @@ -102,8 +318,12 @@ def get_prices( df = self._prices.loc[ pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) ] - if fields: - df = df[[c for c in fields if c in df.columns]] + df = self._project_fields(df, fields) + df.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": _PRICE_ADJUSTMENT, + "adjusted_price_basis": _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS, + "adjustment_factor_available": True, + }) return df def get_financials( @@ -124,27 +344,568 @@ def get_benchmark( ) -> pd.Series: if self._benchmark is None: self._load_or_fetch_all() - return self._benchmark.loc[ + benchmark = self._benchmark + if isinstance(benchmark, pd.DataFrame): + # Defensive: old caches stored the benchmark as a one-column frame. + benchmark = benchmark.iloc[:, 0] + return benchmark.loc[ pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date) ] def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Stock metadata; ``attrs["st_available"]`` mirrors the ST feed. + + The static frame carries no ``is_st`` column (a whole-sample boolean + would silently disable per-date screening). ST information lives in + :meth:`get_st_timeseries`; ``attrs["st_available"]`` is True exactly + when that episode table is non-empty, so it can never disagree with + what the pipeline will consume. + """ if self._metadata is None: self._load_or_fetch_all() + if self._st_timeseries is None: + # Defensive: a metadata frame injected directly (tests) without a + # resolved feed must not inherit a stale True. + self._st_timeseries = _empty_st_timeseries() + self.st_available = False + self._metadata.attrs["st_available"] = bool(self.st_available) return self._metadata + def data_status(self) -> dict: + """Completion marker of the loaded panel (D32). + + A failed incremental attempt leaves the data file and its manifest + untouched, so its ``incomplete`` flag lives in a sidecar. It is + surfaced here when it refers to the same completion marker, making a + restarted process aware that the last append attempt was partial. + """ + status = dict(self._data_status) + sidecar = read_incremental_status(self._cache_file()) + if ( + sidecar + and sidecar.get("incomplete") + and str(sidecar.get("last_complete_date")) + == str(status.get("last_complete_date")) + ): + status["incomplete"] = True + status["reason"] = sidecar.get("reason") + status["last_incremental_attempt"] = sidecar + return status + + def get_st_timeseries(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """ST episodes derived from Tushare's ``namechange`` history. + + Derivation rules (point-in-time, conservative; see + :meth:`_derive_st_episodes` for the implementation): + + * a ``namechange`` row whose new ``name`` contains ``ST`` (case + insensitive, so ``*ST`` matches) describes an ST interval running + from its ``start_date`` to its ``end_date``; + * ``trigger_date`` is that interval's ``start_date``; + * ``announce_date`` is ``ann_date`` when present and parseable, + otherwise ``start_date`` -- nothing earlier is inferred, and using + the effective date as the fallback can only *delay* exclusion, never + pull knowledge forward; + * ``end_date`` is the recorded ``end_date``; when it is empty the + interval is capped at the next recorded name change minus one day, + or, for a name still in force, at the last day of the price sample + (same rule as the Baostock R7a feed; without a price sample the + open interval is dropped rather than bounded by the requested end); + * duplicate name-change rows are collapsed in favour of a row that + records an ``end_date``; adjacent/overlapping ST intervals of one + asset are merged (earliest announce/trigger, latest end); non-ST + renames are ignored; + * ``is_st`` is True. + + Returns the empty contract frame when the endpoint was unavailable or + returned nothing usable: no ST evidence is fabricated, and + ``st_available`` is False so the pipeline treats ST screening as + unavailable instead of treating every stock as non-ST. + """ + if self._st_timeseries is None: + self._load_or_fetch_all() + if self._st_timeseries is None: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + return self._st_timeseries.copy() + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Corporate actions (best effort) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def get_corporate_actions( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Cash dividends and splits from Tushare's ``dividend`` endpoint. + + Best effort: the request window is widened by 400 calendar days on + the left because ``start_date``/``end_date`` are interpreted against + the announcement date, then rows are filtered on ``ex_date``. Only + implemented plans (``div_proc`` containing 实施) are kept, so a + proposal is never paid twice. ``cash_div_tax`` (pre-tax, per share) + is the contract amount -- the paper engine withholds tax per its own + config. If the API is unavailable, returns the documented empty + frame and leaves ``corporate_actions_available`` False; no amount is + ever inferred. + """ + start = pd.Timestamp(start_date).normalize() + end = pd.Timestamp(end_date).normalize() + if ( + self._corporate_actions is not None + and self._corporate_actions_range is not None + and self._corporate_actions_range[0] <= start + and end <= self._corporate_actions_range[1] + ): + frame = self._corporate_actions + mask = (frame["ex_date"] >= start) & (frame["ex_date"] <= end) + return frame.loc[mask].reset_index(drop=True).copy() + + frame = self._fetch_corporate_actions(start, end) + self._corporate_actions = frame + self._corporate_actions_range = (start, end) + return frame.copy() + + def _dividend_code_batches(self) -> list[str | None]: + """Symbol batches for the dividend call (``None`` = market-wide). + + Per-code batches avoid the endpoint's per-call row cap truncating a + multi-year market-wide response. When the constituent panel has not + been loaded yet (the accessor is deliberately usable before a price + fetch), fall back to one market-wide call. + """ + codes: list[str] = [] + if self._metadata is not None and len(self._metadata): + codes = sorted(str(code) for code in self._metadata.index) + elif self._constituent_history is not None and len(self._constituent_history): + codes = sorted( + self._constituent_history["ts_code"].astype(str).unique() + ) + if not codes: + return [None] + return [ + ",".join(codes[i:i + 50]) for i in range(0, len(codes), 50) + ] + + def _fetch_corporate_actions( + self, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + api = self.ts_api + if api is None: + logger.warning( + "Tushare API unavailable; corporate actions are unavailable" + ) + self.corporate_actions_available = False + return empty_corporate_actions() + + fields = ( + "ts_code,ex_date,cash_div,cash_div_tax,stk_div," + "stk_bo_rate,stk_co_rate,div_proc" + ) + fetch_start = (start - pd.Timedelta(days=400)).strftime("%Y%m%d") + fetch_end = end.strftime("%Y%m%d") + batches = self._dividend_code_batches() + frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + failures = 0 + for batch in batches: + kwargs = { + "start_date": fetch_start, + "end_date": fetch_end, + "fields": fields, + } + if batch is not None: + kwargs["ts_code"] = batch + try: + df = self._call_with_retries( + "dividend", api.dividend, **kwargs, + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - best effort feed + failures += 1 + logger.warning( + "Tushare dividend fetch failed for %s: %s", + "market" if batch is None else f"{len(batch.split(','))} codes", + exc, + ) + continue + if df is not None and len(df): + if len(df) >= 2000 and batch is None: + logger.warning( + "Tushare dividend returned %d rows in one market-wide " + "call (endpoint cap ~2000); the feed may be truncated. " + "Load the constituent panel first for per-code batches.", + len(df), + ) + frames.append(df) + + if batches and failures == len(batches): + self.corporate_actions_available = False + return empty_corporate_actions() + self.corporate_actions_available = True + + if not frames: + return empty_corporate_actions() + raw = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + return self._parse_dividend_rows(raw, start, end) + + @staticmethod + def _parse_dividend_rows( + raw: pd.DataFrame, start: pd.Timestamp, end: pd.Timestamp, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Map Tushare ``dividend`` rows to the corporate-action contract.""" + records: list[dict] = [] + post_tax_fallbacks = 0 + has_process = "div_proc" in raw.columns + for _, row in raw.iterrows(): + if has_process: + process = str(row.get("div_proc") or "").strip() + if process and "实施" not in process: + continue + ex_date = pd.to_datetime( + row.get("ex_date"), format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce", + ) + if pd.isna(ex_date) or ex_date < start or ex_date > end: + continue + ts_code = row.get("ts_code") + if ts_code is None or pd.isna(ts_code): + continue + asset = normalize_symbol(ts_code) + cash = pd.to_numeric( + pd.Series([row.get("cash_div_tax")]), errors="coerce", + ).iloc[0] + if pd.isna(cash) or cash <= 0: + # `cash_div` is the *after-tax* per-share amount. Falling + # back to it keeps the feed usable where the pre-tax column + # is absent, but a non-zero withholding config would then + # withhold twice; warn instead of silently changing basis. + cash = pd.to_numeric( + pd.Series([row.get("cash_div")]), errors="coerce", + ).iloc[0] + if pd.notna(cash) and cash > 0: + post_tax_fallbacks += 1 + cash = float(cash) if pd.notna(cash) and cash > 0 else 0.0 + bonus = pd.to_numeric( + pd.Series([row.get("stk_div")]), errors="coerce", + ).iloc[0] + if pd.isna(bonus) or bonus <= 0: + parts = [ + pd.to_numeric(pd.Series([row.get(key)]), errors="coerce").iloc[0] + for key in ("stk_bo_rate", "stk_co_rate") + ] + parts = [float(p) for p in parts if pd.notna(p) and p > 0] + bonus = sum(parts) if parts else 0.0 + bonus = float(bonus) if pd.notna(bonus) and bonus > 0 else 0.0 + if cash <= 0 and bonus <= 0: + continue + if cash > 0: + records.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "cash", + "cash_per_share": round(cash, 6), + "split_ratio": 1.0, + }) + if bonus > 0: + records.append({ + "ex_date": ex_date, + "asset": asset, + "kind": "split", + "cash_per_share": 0.0, + "split_ratio": round(1.0 + bonus, 6), + }) + if post_tax_fallbacks: + logger.warning( + "Tushare dividend: %d row(s) had no pre-tax amount; using the " + "after-tax cash_div. Configure cash_dividend_tax_rate=0 for " + "those rows or the tax is withheld twice", + post_tax_fallbacks, + ) + if not records: + return empty_corporate_actions() + return normalize_corporate_actions( + pd.DataFrame(records, columns=list(CORPORATE_ACTION_COLUMNS)) + ) + + def get_index_membership_mask( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Per-date (date x asset) index-membership mask. + + Membership snapshots are kept as ``(trade_date, ts_code)`` history and + returned snapshot-dated: each row describes membership until the next + snapshot, and the consumer reindexes the panel onto its price grid and + forward-fills. A constituent stays a member until the next snapshot + says otherwise; dates before the first snapshot are False (unknown, + never assumed to be members). + + Every snapshot row lists both current members (True) and non-members + (False), so a plain forward fill propagates an explicit *exit* as + faithfully as an inclusion. An earlier implementation masked the + False cells to NaN first, which made a name that ever entered the + index a member for the rest of the sample. + """ + if self._constituent_history is None: + self._load_or_fetch_all() + history = self._constituent_history + empty = pd.DataFrame( + index=pd.DatetimeIndex([], name="date"), + columns=pd.Index([], name="asset"), + dtype=bool, + ) + if history is None or history.empty: + return empty + + hist = history.dropna(subset=["trade_date", "ts_code"]).copy() + hist["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(hist["trade_date"]) + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(sorted(hist["trade_date"].unique()), name="date") + assets = pd.Index(sorted(hist["ts_code"].unique()), name="asset") + mask = pd.DataFrame(False, index=dates, columns=assets) + for trade_date, group in hist.groupby("trade_date"): + members = [c for c in group["ts_code"].unique() if c in mask.columns] + if members: + mask.loc[pd.Timestamp(trade_date), members] = True + + # A snapshot describes membership *until the next snapshot*: forward + # fill both True (inclusion persists) and False (explicit exit), then + # default dates before the first snapshot to non-members. + mask = mask.ffill().fillna(False).astype(bool) + mask = mask.loc[pd.Timestamp(start_date):pd.Timestamp(end_date)] + return mask + + # Alias exposing the same panel through the generic "universe" name. + def get_universe_mask( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Alias of :meth:`get_index_membership_mask`.""" + return self.get_index_membership_mask(start_date, end_date) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Cache identity / versioning (D12/D13) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _cache_file(self) -> Path: + return self.cache_dir / ( + f"tushare_{self.index_code}_{self.start_date}_{self.end_date}.h5" + ) + + def _cache_manifest_valid( + self, cache_file: Path, *, expected_end: str | None = None, + ) -> bool: + """Whether the HDF5 file was written under the current semantics.""" + if not cache_manifest_matches( + cache_file, + adjustment=_PRICE_ADJUSTMENT, + cache_version=_PROVIDER_CACHE_VERSION, + ): + return False + # A file copied/renamed from another index or date range must not be + # served: the sidecar records the selection it was fetched for. + manifest = read_cache_manifest(cache_file) or {} + expected_end = self.end_date if expected_end is None else expected_end + return ( + str(manifest.get("index_code")) == str(self.index_code) + and str(manifest.get("start_date")) == str(self.start_date) + and str(manifest.get("end_date")) == str(expected_end) + ) + + def _write_cache_manifest( + self, cache_file: Path, extra: dict | None = None, + ) -> None: + payload = { + "index_code": self.index_code, + "start_date": self.start_date, + "end_date": self.end_date, + "benchmark_source": self.benchmark_source, + "adjusted_price_basis": _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS, + "adj_factor_role": "divisor", + # Evidence of whether the cached panel carries ST history: an + # ``unavailable`` feed is never replayed as "no ST names" (R14), + # and availability/episode count distinguish an empty-but-ok feed + # from a feed that actually produced episodes, so the pipeline + # cache key changes when ST evidence appears or disappears. + "st_fetch_status": self._st_fetch_status, + "st_available": bool(self.st_available), + "st_episode_count": int( + 0 if self._st_timeseries is None else len(self._st_timeseries) + ), + "st_failed_symbols": sorted(self.st_failed_symbols), + "st_window_refresh": self._st_last_window_refresh, + "st_covered_until": ( + self._st_covered_until.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") + if isinstance(self._st_covered_until, pd.Timestamp) + else None + ), + "st_feed_fingerprint": self._namechange_fingerprint( + self._st_namechange + ), + } + if extra: + payload.update(extra) + write_cache_manifest( + cache_file, + provider="tushare", + adjustment=_PRICE_ADJUSTMENT, + cache_version=_PROVIDER_CACHE_VERSION, + extra=payload, + ) + + def _discard_cache(self, cache_file: Path) -> None: + for path in (cache_file, cache_file.with_name( + f"{cache_file.name}.manifest.json")): + try: + path.unlink(missing_ok=True) + except OSError as exc: + logger.warning("Could not delete stale cache %s: %s", path, exc) + + def cache_identity(self) -> dict: + """Selection inputs that change the fetched panel (used in the key). + + ``st_fetch_status`` is part of the identity: a data-stage panel built + while the ST feed was unavailable must not be reused after the feed + recovers (the pipeline cache key would otherwise be identical). + """ + return { + "provider": "tushare", + "adjustment": _PRICE_ADJUSTMENT, + "adjusted_price_basis": _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASIS, + "cache_version": _PROVIDER_CACHE_VERSION, + "index_code": self.index_code, + "start_date": self.start_date, + "end_date": self.end_date, + "synthetic": False, + "st_fetch_status": self._st_identity_status(), + } + + def _st_identity_status(self) -> str: + """ST-feed state for the pipeline cache identity (R14 mitigation). + + Reads only the provider-cache sidecar (never the network). The + composite carries fetch status, whether the feed produced episodes, + and whether the last incremental window refresh failed: an ST-off + data-stage panel must not share a key with a panel that has real ST + evidence. When no valid cache exists for this selection a + per-instance token is returned, so a cache deleted to recover from + an outage can never collide with a degraded data-stage panel cached + under the earlier "cache missing" identity. + """ + cache_file = self._cache_file() + if not cache_file.exists() or not self._cache_manifest_valid(cache_file): + return f"missing:{self._st_identity_nonce}" + manifest = read_cache_manifest(cache_file) or {} + status = str(manifest.get("st_fetch_status", "unknown")) + available = manifest.get("st_available", "unknown") + episodes = manifest.get("st_episode_count", "unknown") + window = manifest.get("st_window_refresh", "unknown") + feed = manifest.get("st_feed_fingerprint", "unknown") + failed = len(manifest.get("st_failed_symbols", []) or []) + suffix = "|window_failed=1" if window == "failed" else "" + return ( + f"{status}|available={available}|episodes={episodes}" + f"|feed={feed}|failed={failed}{suffix}" + ) + + def cache_universe( + self, + *, + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + n_symbols: int | None = None, + ) -> list[str] | None: + """Constituent code set, loaded without deserializing the price panel. + + Reads only the ``/constituents`` table from an existing, version-valid + HDF5 file; otherwise fetches the constituent history (the same data + the full fetch needs, so it is cached in memory for reuse). Returns + ``None`` when unavailable. + """ + if self._constituent_history is None: + cache_file = self._cache_file() + if cache_file.exists() and self._cache_manifest_valid(cache_file): + try: + with pd.HDFStore(cache_file, mode="r") as store: + if "/constituents" in set(store.keys()): + history = store["constituents"] + history["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + history["trade_date"], errors="coerce" + ) + self._constituent_history = history + self.universe_history_available = bool( + len(history) > 0 + ) + except Exception as exc: # pragma: no cover - defensive + logger.warning( + "Could not read constituents from %s: %s", + cache_file, exc, + ) + if self._constituent_history is None: + api = self.ts_api + if api is None: + return None + try: + self._constituent_history = self._fetch_constituents(api) + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning( + "Could not fetch the constituent universe for the " + "cache identity: %s", exc, + ) + return None + history = self._constituent_history + if history is None or history.empty or "ts_code" not in history.columns: + return None + return sorted(history["ts_code"].dropna().astype(str).unique()) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Main data loading with caching # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _load_or_fetch_all(self) -> None: - """Load from HDF5 cache or fetch from Tushare API.""" - cache_file = self.cache_dir / f"tushare_{self.index_code}_{self.start_date}_{self.end_date}.h5" + """Load from HDF5 cache or fetch from Tushare API. + + A cache whose sidecar manifest is missing or records a different + schema/cache/adjustment version is not trusted: it is deleted and + refetched (D13). A cache file that cannot be read is likewise deleted + and refetched. The cache is written only after *every* fetch + completed; a :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` therefore never leaves a + partial panel behind. + """ + cache_file = self._cache_file() - if cache_file.exists(): + cache_usable = cache_file.exists() and self._cache_manifest_valid(cache_file) + if cache_file.exists() and not cache_usable: + logger.warning( + "Cache %s has a missing/mismatched version manifest " + "(schema or adjustment changed); refetching", cache_file, + ) + self._discard_cache(cache_file) + cache_usable = False + + if cache_usable: logger.info("Loading from cache: %s", cache_file) - self._load_from_cache(cache_file) - return + try: + self._load_from_cache(cache_file) + return + except MemoryError: + # Not evidence of corruption: preserve the file and let the + # failure surface (D34 applies to provider caches too). + raise + except OSError as exc: + # Sharing/permission/transient IO: keep the file; refetching + # is cheaper than losing a valid cache permanently. + logger.warning( + "Cache %s could not be read (%s); keeping it and refetching", + cache_file, exc, + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - unreadable => corrupt + logger.warning( + "Cache %s is corrupt/unreadable (%s); deleting and refetching", + cache_file, exc, + ) + self._discard_cache(cache_file) + if cache_file.exists(): + raise if not self._has_token: logger.error( @@ -158,55 +919,269 @@ def _load_or_fetch_all(self) -> None: logger.info("Fetching real data from Tushare (this takes ~30s first time)...") self._fetch_all_from_tushare() - self._save_to_cache(cache_file) - logger.info("Data cached to: %s", cache_file) - - def _load_from_cache(self, cache_file: Path) -> None: - """Reload all data from HDF5 cache.""" + panel_end = panel_last_date(self._prices) + delisted = self._delisted_symbols(self._metadata, panel_end) + marker, incomplete = complete_panel_marker( + self._prices, delisted=delisted, + ) + marker_extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=marker, + requested_end=self.end_date, + new_sessions=0, + incomplete=incomplete, + source="full_fetch", + ) + self._data_status = { + "last_complete_date": marker_extra["last_complete_date"], + "requested_end": marker_extra["requested_end"], + "updated_at": marker_extra["updated_at"], + "data_age_days": marker_extra["data_age_days"], + "incomplete": bool(incomplete), + "source": "full_fetch", + } + try: + self._save_to_cache(cache_file, extra=marker_extra) + except Exception as exc: # a cache failure must not fail the research run + logger.warning( + "Data fetched but could not be cached to %s: %s", + cache_file, exc, + ) + else: + logger.info("Data cached to: %s", cache_file) + + def _load_from_cache( + self, cache_file: Path, *, expected_end: str | None = None, + ) -> None: + """Reload all data from HDF5 cache. + + Refuses a file whose version manifest is missing or stale, so direct + callers get the same protection as :meth:`_load_or_fetch_all` (D13). + ``expected_end`` validates a candidate written for an earlier end + date during the incremental-update scan; the default validates the + provider's current request. + """ + if not self._cache_manifest_valid(cache_file, expected_end=expected_end): + raise ValueError( + "cache version manifest missing or does not match the current " + "schema/adjustment versions" + ) + manifest = read_cache_manifest(cache_file) or {} + self.benchmark_source = str( + manifest.get("benchmark_source", "unknown") + ) + self._data_status = { + "last_complete_date": manifest.get("last_complete_date"), + "requested_end": manifest.get("end_date"), + "updated_at": manifest.get("updated_at"), + "data_age_days": manifest.get("data_age_days"), + "incomplete": bool(manifest.get("incomplete", False)), + "source": "cache_manifest", + } + if self.benchmark_source == "equal_weight_fallback": + logger.warning( + "Cached Tushare benchmark is an equal-weight fallback, not " + "the CSI 300 index; metrics compare against a constructed " + "benchmark" + ) with pd.HDFStore(cache_file, mode="r") as store: + keys = set(store.keys()) + if "/prices" not in keys: + raise ValueError("cache is missing the prices table") self._prices = store["prices"] - self._financials = store["financials"] - self._benchmark = store["benchmark"] - self._metadata = store["metadata"] + self._financials = store["financials"] if "/financials" in keys else pd.DataFrame() + self._metadata = store["metadata"] if "/metadata" in keys else pd.DataFrame() + + benchmark = store["benchmark"] + if isinstance(benchmark, pd.DataFrame): + benchmark = benchmark.iloc[:, 0] + benchmark.name = "benchmark" + self._benchmark = benchmark + + if "/constituents" in keys: + constituents = store["constituents"] + constituents["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(constituents["trade_date"]) + self._constituent_history = constituents + self.universe_history_available = bool(len(constituents) > 0) + else: + self._constituent_history = pd.DataFrame( + columns=["trade_date", "ts_code"] + ) + self.universe_history_available = False + + # ST feed (R14): derive the episode table from the cached raw + # namechange rows. A missing key means the endpoint was + # unavailable when this cache was written (the status is in the + # manifest) -- it is deliberately NOT treated as "no ST names". + self._st_fetch_status = str( + manifest.get("st_fetch_status", "unavailable") + ) + self._st_last_window_refresh = str( + manifest.get("st_window_refresh", "not_attempted") + ) + covered_raw = manifest.get("st_covered_until") + covered = ( + pd.to_datetime(covered_raw, errors="coerce") + if covered_raw else pd.NaT + ) + # A v6 cache written with a future requested_end may carry a + # future boundary; clamp it to what could be known now. + self._st_covered_until = ( + expected_data_end(covered) if pd.notna(covered) else None + ) + self.st_failed_symbols = [ + str(code) for code in manifest.get("st_failed_symbols", []) + ] + if "/st_namechange" in keys: + self._st_namechange = store["st_namechange"] + derived = self._safe_derive_st_episodes(self._st_namechange) + self._st_timeseries = ( + derived if derived is not None else _empty_st_timeseries() + ) + else: + # No key: either the endpoint was unavailable (the manifest + # says so) or it answered "ok" with zero rows (a zero-row + # feed stores an empty fixed-format key, but older readers + # may see none). The manifest disambiguates; "ok + no rows" + # is an empty feed, not an unavailable endpoint. + if self._st_fetch_status in ("ok", "partial"): + self._st_namechange = _empty_namechange() + else: + self._st_namechange = None + self._st_timeseries = _empty_st_timeseries() + self.st_available = not self._st_timeseries.empty + + if self._st_fetch_status == "unavailable": + logger.warning( + "Cached Tushare panel carries no usable ST history " + "(namechange unavailable when it was fetched); " + "st_available=False -- ST screening is unavailable for this " + "run and ST names may remain eligible. This does NOT mean " + "every stock is non-ST. To retry, delete the provider cache " + "(.h5 and .manifest.json); --force/--no-cache only bypass " + "pipeline caches and do not refetch provider data." + ) + elif self._st_fetch_status == "partial": + logger.warning( + "Cached Tushare ST history is partial: %d symbol(s) failed " + "when fetched (e.g. %s); their ST status is unknown, not " + "non-ST.", + len(self.st_failed_symbols), + sorted(self.st_failed_symbols)[:10], + ) + if self.st_available: + logger.info( + "ST history: %d episode(s) derived from cached namechange", + len(self._st_timeseries), + ) + elif self.st_available: + logger.info( + "ST history: %d episode(s) derived from cached namechange", + len(self._st_timeseries), + ) + else: + logger.info( + "ST history: namechange responded but produced no ST " + "episodes in the fetched history" + ) + if self._st_last_window_refresh == "failed": + logger.warning( + "The last incremental ST name-change window refresh failed; " + "name changes made after the cache was built may be missing " + "from this panel until a full refresh." + ) - logger.info("Loaded from cache: %d assets, %d price rows", - len(self._metadata), len(self._prices)) + def _save_to_cache(self, cache_file: Path, extra: dict | None = None) -> None: + """Persist all data to HDF5 atomically (temp file + ``os.replace``). - def _save_to_cache(self, cache_file: Path) -> None: - """Persist all data to HDF5 for fast reload.""" - with pd.HDFStore(cache_file, mode="w", complevel=5, complib="zlib") as store: - store["prices"] = self._prices - store["financials"] = self._financials - store["benchmark"] = self._benchmark.to_frame("benchmark") - store["metadata"] = self._metadata + Publication (data file + version/completion manifest) happens under a + cross-process lock. The data file is replaced first and the manifest + only afterwards, so a crash between the two leaves either the old + entry or an unversioned file that the loader rejects -- never new data + advertised under an old completion marker. + """ + cache_file.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + tmp_file = cache_file.with_name( + f"{cache_file.name}.tmp.{os.getpid()}.{uuid.uuid4().hex[:8]}" + ) + try: + with pd.HDFStore(tmp_file, mode="w", complevel=5, complib="zlib") as store: + store["prices"] = self._prices + store["financials"] = self._financials + store["benchmark"] = self._benchmark.to_frame("benchmark") + store["metadata"] = self._metadata + if self._constituent_history is not None: + store["constituents"] = self._constituent_history + # Only a fetched feed is evidence. ``None`` (endpoint + # unavailable) deliberately leaves the key out so a reload + # cannot replay an empty table as a complete answer. Table + # format keeps the string columns native (fixed format would + # pickle them and emit a PerformanceWarning). + if self._st_namechange is not None: + if len(self._st_namechange): + store.put( + "st_namechange", self._st_namechange, format="table", + ) + else: + # Table format silently drops a zero-row frame; the + # fixed format round-trips the empty contract. + store["st_namechange"] = self._st_namechange + with provider_cache_lock(cache_file.parent) as locked: + if not locked: + raise TimeoutError( + f"timed out acquiring the provider cache lock for " + f"{cache_file}" + ) + os.replace(tmp_file, cache_file) + self._write_cache_manifest(cache_file, extra=extra) + finally: + if tmp_file.exists(): + try: + tmp_file.unlink() + except OSError: + logger.warning("Could not remove temp cache file %s", tmp_file) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Tushare API fetching # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _fetch_all_from_tushare(self) -> None: - """Fetch complete dataset from Tushare Pro API.""" + """Fetch complete dataset from Tushare Pro API. + + Any failure raises :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError`; the caller + (`_load_or_fetch_all`) only writes the cache afterwards, so a + partial dataset is never persisted. + """ api = self.ts_api if api is None: raise RuntimeError("Tushare API not available") # 1. Get CSI 300 constituents over time - logger.info(" Fetching CSI 300 constituent history...") - constituents = self._fetch_constituents(api) - all_codes = list(constituents["ts_code"].unique()) + if self._constituent_history is None or self._constituent_history.empty: + logger.info(" Fetching CSI 300 constituent history...") + self._constituent_history = self._fetch_constituents(api) + else: + # Already resolved for the cache key; reuse instead of re-fetching. + logger.info(" Reusing pre-resolved CSI 300 constituent history...") + self.universe_history_available = bool( + len(self._constituent_history) > 0 + ) + constituents = self._constituent_history + # Sorted so a full fetch and an incremental update describe the same + # panel in the same level order (byte-identical output). + all_codes = sorted(constituents["ts_code"].astype(str).unique()) logger.info(" Got %d unique constituent stocks", len(all_codes)) - # 2. Get stock basic info (metadata) + # 2. Get stock basic info (metadata; includes delisted names) logger.info(" Fetching stock basic info...") self._metadata = self._fetch_stock_basic(api, all_codes) logger.info(" Metadata: %d stocks", len(self._metadata)) - # 3. Get daily price data (前复权) - logger.info(" Fetching daily prices (qfq, may take a while)...") + # 3. Get daily price data (raw OHLCV + adjustment divisor) + logger.info(" Fetching daily prices (raw + adj_factor, may take a while)...") self._prices = self._fetch_daily_prices(api, all_codes) logger.info(" Prices: %d rows", len(self._prices)) - # 4. Get financial data + # 4. Get financial data (PIT: keyed on announcement date) logger.info(" Fetching financial statements...") self._financials = self._fetch_financials(api, all_codes) logger.info(" Financials: %d rows", len(self._financials)) @@ -216,29 +1191,68 @@ def _fetch_all_from_tushare(self) -> None: self._benchmark = self._fetch_index_daily(api) logger.info(" Benchmark: %d rows", len(self._benchmark)) + # 6. Get ST history (namechange; one call per symbol, best effort) + logger.info(" Fetching ST name-change history...") + episodes = self._fetch_st_episodes(api, all_codes) + # A full fetch rebuilds the feed from scratch: any incremental-window + # failure marker is cleared. Coverage is complete only when every + # symbol produced a usable reply; a partial/unavailable feed must not + # claim complete historical coverage (R14 review N13/N19). + self._st_last_window_refresh = "not_attempted" + self._st_covered_until = ( + panel_last_date(self._prices) + if self._st_fetch_status == "ok" + else None + ) + logger.info(" ST episodes: %d", len(episodes)) + def _fetch_constituents(self, api) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Fetch CSI 300 constituent changes over time.""" + """Fetch CSI 300 constituent changes over time. + + The returned frame keeps one row per ``(trade_date, ts_code)`` + snapshot. Only the ``index_weight`` path supplies real per-date + history; the fallbacks are a single end-date snapshot and are + flagged through ``universe_history_available``. + """ frames = [] + self.universe_history_available = False # CSI 300 = 000300.SH try: - df = api.index_weight( + df = self._call_with_retries( + "index_weight", + api.index_weight, index_code=self.index_code, start_date=self.start_date.replace("-", ""), end_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), ) if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - df = df[["trade_date", "ts_code"]].drop_duplicates() + df = df[["trade_date", "ts_code"]].drop_duplicates().copy() + df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + df["trade_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) + df = df.dropna(subset=["trade_date", "ts_code"]) frames.append(df) + self.universe_history_available = True + else: + logger.warning("index_weight returned no rows; using a snapshot fallback") except Exception as e: logger.warning("index_weight failed: %s, trying index_member", e) - # Fallback: fetch current members only + + if not frames: + # Fallback: fetch current members only (single end-date snapshot). + snapshot_date = self.end_date.replace("-", "") try: - df = api.index_member( + df = self._call_with_retries( + "index_member", + api.index_member, index_code=self.index_code, - trade_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), + trade_date=snapshot_date, ) if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - df["trade_date"] = self.end_date.replace("-", "") + df = df[["ts_code"]].drop_duplicates().copy() + df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + snapshot_date, format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) frames.append(df) except Exception as e2: logger.warning("index_member also failed: %s", e2) @@ -246,58 +1260,692 @@ def _fetch_constituents(self, api) -> pd.DataFrame: if not frames: # Last resort: get CSI 300 stock list directly logger.warning("Cannot fetch constituents, trying HS300 stocks directly") + snapshot_date = self.end_date.replace("-", "") try: - df = api.hs300( - trade_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), + df = self._call_with_retries( + "hs300", + api.hs300, + trade_date=snapshot_date, fields="ts_code,weight", ) if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - df["trade_date"] = self.end_date.replace("-", "") + df = df[["ts_code"]].drop_duplicates().copy() + df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + snapshot_date, format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) frames.append(df) - except Exception: - pass + except Exception as exc: + logger.warning("hs300 also failed: %s", exc) if frames: - return pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + result = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + return result.drop_duplicates(subset=["trade_date", "ts_code"]) return pd.DataFrame(columns=["trade_date", "ts_code"]) def _fetch_stock_basic(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Fetch stock metadata: name, industry, list date, ST status.""" - try: - df = api.stock_basic( + """Fetch stock metadata: name, industry, list date, delisting date. + + ``list_status`` L (listed), P (paused) and D (delisted) are all + fetched so historical cross-sections do not silently lose delisted + constituents. ``is_st`` is deliberately **not** fabricated here: this + frame is a static snapshot, and ST information is exposed point in + time through :meth:`get_st_timeseries` (derived from ``namechange``, + R14). ``attrs["st_available"]`` on the frame is a conservative False + at this stage; :meth:`get_metadata` overwrites it with the resolved + truth once the episode table exists. + """ + frames = [] + for status in ("L", "P", "D"): + df = self._call_with_retries( + f"stock_basic[{status}]", + api.stock_basic, exchange="", - list_status="L", # Listed + list_status=status, fields="ts_code,name,industry,list_date,delist_date,is_hs", ) if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - df = df.set_index("ts_code") - df = df.reindex(codes) - df = df.dropna(subset=["name"]) - - # Map Tushare industry names to our sector names - df["sector"] = df["industry"].fillna("综合") - # Map to our standard sectors - df["sector"] = df["sector"].apply(self._map_sector) - - df["market_cap_group"] = "mid" # Will be updated after price fetch - df["is_st"] = df["name"].str.contains("ST|\\*ST", regex=True, na=False) - df["listing_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["list_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce") - df["delisting_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["delist_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce") - - result = df[["sector", "market_cap_group", "is_st", "listing_date", "delisting_date"]].copy() - result.index.name = "asset" - return result - except Exception as e: - logger.warning("stock_basic failed: %s", e) + frames.append(df) + + if frames: + raw = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + raw = raw.drop_duplicates(subset=["ts_code"], keep="last") + raw = raw.set_index("ts_code") + df = raw.reindex(codes) + + # Map Tushare industry names to our sector names + df["sector"] = df["industry"].fillna("综合") + df["sector"] = df["sector"].apply(self._map_sector) + df["market_cap_group"] = "mid" # Placeholder; not used by the pipeline + list_date = ( + df["list_date"] if "list_date" in df.columns + else pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=df.index, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + ) + delist_date = ( + df["delist_date"] if "delist_date" in df.columns + else pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=df.index, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + ) + df["listing_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + list_date, format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) + df["delisting_date"] = pd.to_datetime( + delist_date, format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) - # Fallback: minimal metadata - return pd.DataFrame({ + result = df[ + ["sector", "market_cap_group", "listing_date", "delisting_date"] + ].copy() + result.index.name = "asset" + result.attrs["st_available"] = False + return result + + # API succeeded but returned nothing at all: keep the panel usable + # with an explicit, conservative fallback (no delisting knowledge). + logger.warning( + "stock_basic returned no rows for any list_status; metadata has no " + "delisting information (survivorship bias not mitigated)" + ) + result = pd.DataFrame({ "sector": "综合", "market_cap_group": "mid", - "is_st": False, "listing_date": pd.Timestamp(self.start_date), "delisting_date": pd.NaT, }, index=pd.Index(codes, name="asset")) + result.attrs["st_available"] = False + return result + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # ST history (namechange -> episode table) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _fetch_st_episodes(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Fetch the name-change feed and derive the ST episode table. + + Best effort by design: the ST feed must never abort a research run. + Every symbol is attempted with :data:`_ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS` tries; a + failure is logged and recorded in :attr:`st_failed_symbols` while the + remaining symbols continue. When *no* symbol produced a usable + response the status is ``unavailable``: the episode table is empty, + ``st_available`` is False, and the cache stores no + ``/st_namechange`` key -- an unavailable endpoint is never replayed + as "no ST names". + + Episode derivation rules live on :meth:`_derive_st_episodes`. + """ + raw, failed = self._fetch_namechange_raw(api, codes) + self._st_namechange = raw + self.st_failed_symbols = failed + episodes = self._safe_derive_st_episodes(raw) + if episodes is None: + episodes = _empty_st_timeseries() + if self._st_fetch_status == "ok": + self._st_fetch_status = "partial" + self._st_timeseries = episodes + self.st_available = not episodes.empty + if self._st_fetch_status == "unavailable": + logger.warning( + "Tushare ST history unavailable (namechange produced no usable " + "response); st_available=False -- ST screening is unavailable " + "for this run and ST names may remain eligible. This is NOT " + "evidence that every stock is non-ST." + ) + elif episodes.empty: + logger.info( + "Tushare ST history: namechange responded but no ST episodes " + "appeared in the fetched history" + ) + else: + logger.info("Tushare ST history: %d episode(s)", len(episodes)) + if failed: + logger.warning( + "Tushare ST history: %d of %d symbol(s) failed after retries " + "(e.g. %s); their ST status is unknown, not non-ST", + len(failed), len(codes), sorted(failed)[:10], + ) + return episodes + + def _fetch_namechange_raw( + self, api, codes: list[str], + ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame | None, list[str]]: + """Per-symbol ``namechange`` fetch with bounded retries. + + Returns ``(raw_rows, failed_codes)``. ``raw_rows is None`` means no + symbol produced a usable response (endpoint unavailable or permission + denied); an empty frame means the endpoint answered but had no rows. + """ + if api is None: + self._st_fetch_status = "unavailable" + return None, [] + if len(codes) > _ST_FETCH_WARN_THRESHOLD: + logger.warning( + "ST namechange: universe has %d symbols; one API call per " + "symbol (~%.1f min at %.2f s/call, retries excluded). Fetching " + "every symbol (silent skipping is not allowed).", + len(codes), + len(codes) * _ST_FETCH_SECONDS_PER_CALL / 60.0, + _ST_FETCH_SECONDS_PER_CALL, + ) + frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + failed: list[str] = [] + for code in codes: + try: + df = self._fetch_namechange_for_code(api, code) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - per-symbol best effort + failed.append(str(code)) + logger.warning( + "namechange failed for %s after %d attempts (%s); " + "continuing with the remaining symbols", + code, _ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS, exc, + ) + continue + if not self._namechange_frame_is_usable(df, f"namechange[{code}]"): + failed.append(str(code)) + continue + if len(df): + frames.append(df) + + if not codes: + self._st_fetch_status = "ok" + return _empty_namechange(), failed + if failed and len(failed) == len(codes): + self._st_fetch_status = "unavailable" + return None, failed + self._st_fetch_status = "partial" if failed else "ok" + if not frames: + return _empty_namechange(), failed + try: + raw = self._combine_namechange_frames(frames, codes) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - a broken feed is not fatal + logger.warning( + "namechange response is unusable (%s); marking ST history " + "unavailable", exc, + ) + self._st_fetch_status = "unavailable" + return None, failed + return raw, failed + + @staticmethod + def _namechange_frame_is_usable(frame, label: str) -> bool: + """Whether one API reply is a usable name-change frame. + + ``None`` and non-DataFrames are failures (unknown ST status, never + treated as "no ST"). A zero-row frame is accepted as "responded, no + rows" because an empty reply has nothing to validate; a non-empty + frame must carry the columns the episode contract needs. + """ + if frame is None: + logger.warning( + "%s returned no frame (None); treating it as a failure " + "(unknown ST status, not non-ST)", label, + ) + return False + if not isinstance(frame, pd.DataFrame): + logger.warning( + "%s returned %s instead of a DataFrame; treating it as a " + "failure", label, type(frame).__name__, + ) + return False + if len(frame) == 0: + return True + missing = sorted( + {"ts_code", "name", "start_date"} - set(frame.columns) + ) + if missing: + logger.warning( + "%s is missing required column(s) %s; treating it as a " + "failure", label, missing, + ) + return False + names = frame["name"].astype("string").fillna("").str.strip() + starts = frame["start_date"].astype("string").fillna("").str.strip() + if not bool((names != "").any()) or not bool((starts != "").any()): + logger.warning( + "%s carries no usable name/start_date values; treating it as " + "a failure", label, + ) + return False + return True + + @staticmethod + def _dedupe_namechange_rows(raw: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Deduplicate name-change rows, preferring a recorded ``end_date``. + + Tushare returns duplicates for the same ``(ts_code, name, + start_date)`` where one row has ``end_date=None`` and the other the + real end. The open row would otherwise force the "next rename" / + sample-end fill and over-extend the episode, so the closed row wins. + The key uses the *parsed* start date so equivalent date spellings + collapse; unparseable rows get a unique key and are never merged. + """ + frame = raw.copy() + frame["_code_key"] = frame["ts_code"].astype("string").fillna("").str.strip() + frame["_name_key"] = frame["name"].astype("string").fillna("").str.strip() + parsed_start = frame["start_date"].map( + TushareProvider._parse_namechange_date + ) + start_key = pd.to_datetime(parsed_start).dt.strftime("%Y%m%d") + frame["_start_key"] = start_key.fillna( + pd.Series( + [f"unparsed:{i}" for i in range(len(frame))], + index=frame.index, + ) + ) + if "end_date" in frame.columns: + closed = frame["end_date"].map(TushareProvider._row_has_value) + else: + closed = pd.Series(False, index=frame.index, dtype=bool) + frame["_closed"] = closed.astype(bool) + frame = frame.sort_values( + ["_code_key", "_name_key", "_start_key", "_closed"], + kind="stable", ascending=[True, True, True, False], + ).drop_duplicates( + subset=["_code_key", "_name_key", "_start_key"], keep="first", + ) + return frame.drop( + columns=["_code_key", "_name_key", "_start_key", "_closed"], + ).reset_index(drop=True) + + @staticmethod + def _row_has_value(value) -> bool: + """Whether a raw ``namechange`` cell carries a usable value.""" + if pd.isna(value): + return False + return str(value).strip() not in ("", "None", "nan", "NaT") + + @staticmethod + def _parse_namechange_date(value) -> pd.Timestamp: + """Parse one raw namechange date cell (``YYYYMMDD`` or Timestamp).""" + if isinstance(value, pd.Timestamp): + return value.normalize() + if pd.isna(value): + return pd.NaT + text = str(value).strip() + if text.endswith(".0"): + # A numeric column round-tripped through HDF5/parquet arrives as + # 20230110.0; strip the float suffix before strict parsing. + text = text[:-2] + if text in ("", "None", "nan", "NaT"): + return pd.NaT + return pd.to_datetime(text, format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce") + + @staticmethod + def _namechange_fingerprint(frame: pd.DataFrame | None) -> str: + """Stable short hash of the raw ST feed (part of the cache identity).""" + if frame is None: + return "none" + if not isinstance(frame, pd.DataFrame): + return "invalid" + if len(frame) == 0: + return "empty" + columns = [c for c in _ST_NAMECHANGE_COLUMNS if c in frame.columns] + values = frame.loc[:, columns].astype("string").fillna("") + values = values.sort_values(columns, kind="stable") + digest = hashlib.sha1() + digest.update(values.to_csv(index=False).encode("utf-8")) + return digest.hexdigest()[:12] + + def _combine_namechange_frames( + self, frames: list[pd.DataFrame], codes: list[str], + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Combine raw namechange frames into a deduplicated evidence table. + + Rows for symbols outside the requested universe are dropped, missing + optional columns are added as NA, and exact name-change duplicates + are collapsed with :meth:`_dedupe_namechange_rows`. Raises + :class:`ValueError` when the response cannot be assembled or lacks + the columns the episode contract needs. + """ + try: + raw = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - a broken feed is not fatal + raise ValueError(f"could not assemble namechange frames: {exc}") from exc + required = {"ts_code", "name", "start_date"} + missing = sorted(required - set(raw.columns)) + if missing: + raise ValueError(f"missing required column(s) {missing}") + for column in _ST_NAMECHANGE_COLUMNS: + if column not in raw.columns: + raw[column] = pd.NA + raw = raw.loc[:, _ST_NAMECHANGE_COLUMNS].copy() + allowed = {str(code) for code in codes} + raw = raw.loc[raw["ts_code"].astype(str).isin(allowed)] + return self._dedupe_namechange_rows(raw) + + def _refresh_st_after_update( + self, api, marker, requested_end, codes: list[str], + ) -> None: + """Keep the ST episode table truthful across an incremental append. + + Two best-effort steps (an ST failure never aborts the update): + + * fetch name changes announced/effective in the appended window with + one market-wide call and merge them into the cached feed -- without + this, a name change made after the cache was built would stay + invisible until a full refresh; + * re-derive the episodes against the *extended* panel, because an + open-ended ST interval is capped at the panel's last day and would + otherwise stop masking the appended sessions. + + A window-only response is never allowed to stand in for a missing + full feed (it would silently lose every older episode), so recovery + from an unavailable feed still requires a full refresh. + + Coverage is sticky: the start of the next window is the last date a + *successful, untruncated* window (or a full fetch) covered, so a + failed window spanning more than the 30-day margin is re-queried + instead of being silently skipped (R14 review N14). + """ + if self._st_namechange is None: + if self._st_fetch_status == "unavailable": + logger.warning( + "ST history is still unavailable; an incremental update " + "cannot rebuild it (a window-only feed would miss older " + "episodes). Delete the provider cache to retry." + ) + return + if len(self._st_namechange) == 0: + logger.info( + "Cached ST feed is empty; the incremental window can add new " + "name changes but cannot recover older episodes (do a full " + "refresh if the empty feed is suspect)." + ) + self._st_last_window_refresh = "not_attempted" + if api is not None: + # Start from the last *successful* coverage boundary, not the + # price marker: a failed window may leave the price marker ahead + # of the ST coverage, and that gap must be re-covered (N14). + base = ( + self._st_covered_until + if self._st_covered_until is not None + else pd.Timestamp(marker).normalize() + ) + window_start = max( + base - pd.Timedelta(days=30), + pd.Timestamp(self.start_date).normalize(), + ) + failed = False + try: + fresh = self._call_with_retries( + "namechange window", + api.namechange, + start_date=window_start.strftime("%Y%m%d"), + end_date=pd.Timestamp(requested_end).strftime("%Y%m%d"), + fields=_NAMECHANGE_FIELDS, + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - ST feed is best effort + failed = True + logger.warning( + "Incremental ST name-change refresh failed (%s); keeping " + "the cached feed (name changes after it was built stay " + "invisible until a successful window or a full refresh)", + exc, + ) + else: + if not self._namechange_frame_is_usable( + fresh, "namechange window", + ): + failed = True + else: + if len(fresh) >= _NAMECHANGE_ROW_CAP: + # A full response at the per-call ceiling may be + # truncated; keep the rows but never call it complete. + failed = True + logger.warning( + "namechange window returned %d rows (per-call " + "ceiling %d); the response may be truncated. " + "Merging what was returned and doing a full " + "refresh is advised.", + len(fresh), _NAMECHANGE_ROW_CAP, + ) + if len(fresh): + try: + # Fresh rows first: among equally-closed + # duplicates a revised row wins over the cache. + self._st_namechange = self._combine_namechange_frames( + [fresh, self._st_namechange], codes, + ) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - never fatal + failed = True + logger.warning( + "namechange window rows could not be merged " + "(%s); keeping the cached ST feed", exc, + ) + if failed: + self._st_last_window_refresh = "failed" + # Never advance coverage past a failed window. With no prior + # boundary, pin it to this window's start so the next attempt + # re-covers the whole failed interval. + if self._st_covered_until is None: + self._st_covered_until = window_start + else: + self._st_last_window_refresh = "ok" + # Never claim coverage beyond what could have been observed: + # a future requested_end (a common config value) must not push + # the boundary into the future, because the next window would + # then start there and skip genuinely new announcements. + new_coverage = expected_data_end(requested_end) + if ( + self._st_covered_until is None + or new_coverage > self._st_covered_until + ): + self._st_covered_until = new_coverage + derived = self._safe_derive_st_episodes(self._st_namechange) + self._st_timeseries = ( + derived if derived is not None else _empty_st_timeseries() + ) + self.st_available = not self._st_timeseries.empty + + def _fetch_namechange_for_code(self, api, code: str) -> pd.DataFrame: + """One symbol's ``namechange`` call: initial attempt + two retries.""" + last_exc: Exception | None = None + for attempt in range(_ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS): + try: + return api.namechange(ts_code=code, fields=_NAMECHANGE_FIELDS) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - API errors are provider-specific + last_exc = exc + if attempt + 1 < _ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS: + delay = self.retry_backoff * (2 ** attempt) + logger.warning( + "namechange[%s] failed (attempt %d/%d): %s; " + "retrying in %.1fs", + code, attempt + 1, _ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS, exc, delay, + ) + if delay > 0: + time.sleep(delay) + raise RuntimeError( + f"namechange[{code}] failed after {_ST_FETCH_ATTEMPTS} " + f"attempts: {last_exc}" + ) from last_exc + + def _safe_derive_st_episodes( + self, raw: pd.DataFrame | None, + ) -> pd.DataFrame | None: + """Derive episodes without letting a malformed feed abort a run. + + Returns ``None`` when derivation itself failed (a code/data-shape + problem, not "no ST names"); callers report no usable ST history. + """ + try: + return self._derive_st_episodes(raw) + except Exception as exc: # noqa: BLE001 - ST feed must never abort a run + logger.warning( + "ST episode derivation failed (%s); reporting no usable ST " + "history for this call (st_available=False)", exc, + ) + return None + + def _derive_st_episodes(self, raw: pd.DataFrame | None) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Derive conservative ST episodes from raw ``namechange`` rows. + + Rules (also documented on :meth:`get_st_timeseries`): + + * a row whose new ``name`` contains ``ST`` (case insensitive, so + ``*ST`` matches) marks its ``start_date``..``end_date`` interval as + ST; non-ST renames are ignored; + * ``trigger_date`` is ``start_date``; ``announce_date`` is ``ann_date`` + when present and parseable, else ``start_date`` (the fallback can + only delay exclusion, never anticipate it); + * a missing ``end_date`` is capped at the day before the next recorded + name change of that asset -- any later rename proves the ST name + ended -- or, when the ST name is still in force, at the price + sample's last day (same rule as the Baostock R7a feed). Without a + price sample the open interval is dropped, never bounded at the + requested end date; + * duplicate ``(ts_code, name, start_date)`` rows are collapsed first, + keeping a row with a recorded ``end_date`` over an open duplicate + (Tushare ships both for the same change); + * adjacent (next start no later than the day after the current end) + or overlapping ST intervals of one asset are merged, keeping the + earliest announce/trigger and the latest end. + """ + if raw is None or len(raw) == 0: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + required = {"ts_code", "name", "start_date"} + if not required.issubset(raw.columns): + logger.warning( + "namechange feed is missing %s; cannot derive ST episodes", + sorted(required - set(raw.columns)), + ) + return _empty_st_timeseries() + + sample_end = panel_last_date(self._prices) + raw = self._dedupe_namechange_rows(raw) + + frame = pd.DataFrame({ + "asset": [ + normalize_symbol(code) if pd.notna(code) else "" + for code in raw["ts_code"] + ], + "name": raw["name"].astype("string").fillna("").str.strip(), + "start": raw["start_date"].map( + TushareProvider._parse_namechange_date + ), + "end": ( + raw["end_date"].map(TushareProvider._parse_namechange_date) + if "end_date" in raw.columns + else pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=raw.index, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + ), + "ann": ( + raw["ann_date"].map(TushareProvider._parse_namechange_date) + if "ann_date" in raw.columns + else pd.Series(pd.NaT, index=raw.index, dtype="datetime64[ns]") + ), + }) + frame = frame.loc[frame["asset"] != ""] + # A row without a name is unusable evidence: it is neither an ST + # interval nor a non-ST rename, so it must not bound an open one. + blank_name = frame["name"] == "" + if bool(blank_name.any()): + logger.warning( + "namechange: %d row(s) carry no name; ignored (they cannot " + "bound or create an ST episode)", int(blank_name.sum()), + ) + frame = frame.loc[~blank_name] + frame["is_st"] = frame["name"].str.contains( + "st", case=False, regex=False, na=False, + ) + unparseable = int(frame["start"].isna().sum()) + if unparseable: + logger.warning( + "namechange: %d row(s) with an unparseable start_date " + "were dropped (no episode is invented)", + unparseable, + ) + frame = frame.dropna(subset=["start"]) + if frame.empty: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + + frame = frame.sort_values( + ["asset", "start"], kind="stable", + ).reset_index(drop=True) + records: list[dict] = [] + for asset, group in frame.groupby("asset", sort=True): + group = group.reset_index(drop=True) + # Every parsed rename -- ST or not -- bounds an open-ended ST + # interval: any later name change proves the ST name has ended. + starts = group["start"] + for idx, row in group.iterrows(): + if not bool(row["is_st"]): + continue + start = row["start"] + end = row["end"] + if pd.isna(end): + # Only a *strictly later* rename bounds the interval; a + # row sharing this start date describes the same change + # (duplicates are collapsed above) and is ambiguous. + later = starts.iloc[idx + 1:] + later = later[later > start] + if len(later): + end = later.iloc[0] - pd.Timedelta(days=1) + elif sample_end is not None: + # Still ST at the end of the fetched history: the + # episode is open only up to the price sample's end. + end = sample_end + else: + # Without a price sample there is no honest bound; + # drop the open interval instead of inventing one. + logger.warning( + "namechange: open-ended ST interval for %s " + "cannot be bounded (no price sample); dropping it", + asset, + ) + continue + if end < start: + end = start + announce = row["ann"] if pd.notna(row["ann"]) else start + records.append({ + "asset": asset, + "trigger_date": start, + "announce_date": announce, + "end_date": end, + "is_st": True, + }) + if not records: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + episodes = pd.DataFrame.from_records(records, columns=_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS) + episodes = self._merge_st_episodes(episodes) + return episodes.sort_values( + ["asset", "trigger_date"], kind="stable", + ).reset_index(drop=True)[_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS] + + @staticmethod + def _merge_st_episodes(episodes: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Merge adjacent/overlapping ST intervals of the same asset. + + The merged row keeps the earliest announcement (most conservative + exclusion start), the earliest trigger and the latest end. + """ + merged: list[dict] = [] + for asset, group in episodes.groupby("asset", sort=True): + group = group.sort_values("trigger_date", kind="stable") + current: dict | None = None + for row in group.itertuples(index=False): + candidate = { + "asset": asset, + "trigger_date": row.trigger_date, + "announce_date": row.announce_date, + "end_date": row.end_date, + "is_st": True, + } + if current is None: + current = candidate + continue + if candidate["trigger_date"] <= ( + current["end_date"] + pd.Timedelta(days=1) + ): + current["end_date"] = max( + current["end_date"], candidate["end_date"], + ) + current["announce_date"] = min( + current["announce_date"], candidate["announce_date"], + ) + else: + merged.append(current) + current = candidate + if current is not None: + merged.append(current) + if not merged: + return _empty_st_timeseries() + return pd.DataFrame.from_records(merged, columns=_ST_EPISODE_COLUMNS) def _map_sector(self, industry: str) -> str: """Map Tushare industry names to our standard sectors.""" @@ -330,51 +1978,157 @@ def _map_sector(self, industry: str) -> str: return val return "综合" - def _fetch_daily_prices(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Fetch daily OHLCV data with 前复权 (qfq) adjustment. + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Daily prices + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _fetch_batch_daily( + self, + api, + batch: list[str], + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + *, + strict: bool = True, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Fetch one daily batch. - Tushare's qfq adjusts ALL historical prices forward to the - most recent date, accounting for dividends and splits. - This is the standard for backtesting. + ``strict`` is the full-fetch contract: any requested symbol absent + from the response makes the batch unusable. Incremental windows relax + it because a symbol suspended for the whole window legitimately has no + rows; :meth:`update` then applies its own completion rules. """ - all_frames = [] + ts_codes = ",".join(batch) + start = (start_date or self.start_date).replace("-", "") + end = (end_date or self.end_date).replace("-", "") + df = api.daily( + ts_code=ts_codes, + start_date=start, + end_date=end, + fields="ts_code,trade_date,open,high,low,close,vol,amount,turnover_rate", + ) + if df is None or len(df) == 0: + if strict: + raise ValueError("daily returned no rows") + return pd.DataFrame(columns=[ + "ts_code", "trade_date", "open", "high", "low", "close", + "vol", "amount", "turnover_rate", + ]) + missing = set(batch) - set(df["ts_code"].astype(str).unique()) + if missing and strict: + raise ValueError(f"daily response missing symbols: {sorted(missing)}") + return df + + def _fetch_batch_adj( + self, + api, + batch: list[str], + start_date: str | None = None, + end_date: str | None = None, + *, + strict: bool = True, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Fetch one adj_factor batch. + + ``strict`` mirrors :meth:`_fetch_batch_daily`; the incremental path + additionally verifies a factor for every returned price row, so a + missing symbol here can only mean "no rows in the window". + """ + ts_codes = ",".join(batch) + start = (start_date or self.start_date).replace("-", "") + end = (end_date or self.end_date).replace("-", "") + adj_df = api.adj_factor( + ts_code=ts_codes, + start_date=start, + end_date=end, + ) + if adj_df is None or len(adj_df) == 0: + if strict: + raise ValueError("adj_factor returned no rows") + return pd.DataFrame(columns=["ts_code", "trade_date", "adj_factor"]) + missing = set(batch) - set(adj_df["ts_code"].astype(str).unique()) + if missing and strict: + raise ValueError(f"adj_factor response missing symbols: {sorted(missing)}") + return adj_df[["ts_code", "trade_date", "adj_factor"]] + + def _fetch_price_frames( + self, + api, + codes: list[str], + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + *, + strict: bool, + ) -> tuple[list[pd.DataFrame], list[pd.DataFrame], set[str]]: + """Fetch raw daily + adj_factor batches for one date window. + + Returns ``(daily_frames, adj_frames, missing_symbols)``. API failures + after retries raise :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` (the whole + update is incomplete); with ``strict=False`` symbols absent from a + successful response are reported instead of raising. + """ + all_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + adj_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + failed_symbols: set[str] = set() + missing: set[str] = set() batch_size = 50 # Tushare API limit for i in range(0, len(codes), batch_size): - batch = codes[i:i + batch_size] - ts_codes = ",".join(batch) + batch = list(codes[i:i + batch_size]) try: - df = api.daily( - ts_code=ts_codes, - start_date=self.start_date.replace("-", ""), - end_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), - fields="ts_code,trade_date,open,high,low,close,vol,amount,turnover_rate", + df = self._call_with_retries( + f"daily batch {i // batch_size}", + self._fetch_batch_daily, api, batch, + start_date, end_date, strict=strict, ) - if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - all_frames.append(df) - - # Also try to get adj_factor - try: - adj_df = api.adj_factor( - ts_code=ts_codes, - start_date=self.start_date.replace("-", ""), - end_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + failed_symbols.update(batch) + else: + all_frames.append(df) + if df is not None: + missing |= set(batch) - set( + df["ts_code"].astype(str).unique() ) - if adj_df is not None and len(adj_df) > 0: - # Merge adj_factor into main df - adj_df = adj_df.rename(columns={"adj_factor": "qfq_factor"}) - # Will merge after collection - except Exception: - pass - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Batch %d failed: %s", i // batch_size, e) + try: + adj_frames.append( + self._call_with_retries( + f"adj_factor batch {i // batch_size}", + self._fetch_batch_adj, api, batch, + start_date, end_date, strict=strict, + ) + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + failed_symbols.update(batch) + + if failed_symbols: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare price fetch incomplete: " + f"{len(failed_symbols)} symbol(s) failed after retries " + f"(e.g. {sorted(failed_symbols)[:10]})" + ) + return all_frames, adj_frames, missing - if not all_frames: - raise RuntimeError("Failed to fetch any price data from Tushare") + @staticmethod + def _assemble_price_frames( + all_frames: list[pd.DataFrame], + adj_frames: list[pd.DataFrame], + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Merge daily + adjustment batches into a raw price panel. - df = pd.concat(all_frames, ignore_index=True) + Raw OHLCV is kept untouched; the returned ``adj_factor`` column is the + divisor ``1 / native_factor`` the pipeline divides by (D15/D18). + Suspension fill and row dropping happen in + :meth:`_finalize_daily_prices`, so an incremental merge can finalise + the concatenation of cached and fresh rows exactly like a full fetch. + """ + frames = [frame for frame in all_frames if frame is not None and len(frame)] + if not frames: + return pd.DataFrame() + df = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) # Process df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"], format="%Y%m%d") @@ -386,102 +2140,254 @@ def _fetch_daily_prices(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: "turnover_rate": "turnover", }) + # Unit normalisation at the provider boundary. + df["volume"] = pd.to_numeric(df["volume"], errors="coerce") * _LOTS_TO_SHARES + df["amount"] = pd.to_numeric(df["amount"], errors="coerce") * _THOUSAND_CNY_TO_CNY + df["turnover"] = pd.to_numeric(df["turnover"], errors="coerce") / 100.0 + + # VWAP on raw prices: amount (CNY) / volume (shares). Zero-volume + # rows yield inf; replace non-finite values with close below. + df["vwap"] = df["amount"] / df["volume"] + df["vwap"] = df["vwap"].where(np.isfinite(df["vwap"]), df["close"]) + + adj_list = [frame for frame in adj_frames if frame is not None and len(frame)] + if not adj_list: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError("Tushare adj_factor fetch returned no data") + adj = pd.concat(adj_list, ignore_index=True) + adj["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(adj["trade_date"], format="%Y%m%d") + adj = adj.rename(columns={ + "ts_code": "asset", "trade_date": "date", "adj_factor": "native_factor", + }) + adj["native_factor"] = pd.to_numeric(adj["native_factor"], errors="coerce") + + df = df.merge(adj, on=["date", "asset"], how="left") + bad_factor = ( + df["native_factor"].isna() + | ~np.isfinite(df["native_factor"]) + | (df["native_factor"] <= 0) + ) + if bool(bad_factor.any()): + missing = sorted( + df.loc[bad_factor, "asset"].astype(str).unique().tolist() + ) + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare adj_factor incomplete: missing/invalid cumulative " + f"factor for {int(bad_factor.sum())} row(s), symbols {missing[:10]}" + ) + + # Keep raw prices untouched. The pipeline divides by this column, so + # it must be the reciprocal of Tushare's cumulative multiplier. + df["adj_factor"] = 1.0 / df["native_factor"] + df = df.drop(columns=["native_factor"]) + # Set MultiIndex df = df.set_index(["date", "asset"]).sort_index() + return df - # Add derived columns - df["vwap"] = df["amount"] / (df["volume"] * 100) # VWAP approximation - df["vwap"] = df["vwap"].replace([np.inf, -np.inf], df["close"]) - df["adj_factor"] = 1.0 # qfq already adjusted, factor = 1 - - # Handle suspensions: volume=0 means suspended - df.loc[df["volume"] <= 0, ["open", "high", "low", "close", "vwap"]] = np.nan + @staticmethod + def _finalize_daily_prices(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Suspension fill + row dropping, identical for full and incremental. - # Forward-fill suspension gaps (max 5 days for real data) + Applying this to the *concatenated* panel (cached rows + fresh overlap + rows) makes an append produce the same frame a full fetch would: + suspension rows are blanked, short gaps are forward-filled (limit 5) + and rows still lacking a close are dropped. + """ + if df is None or df.empty: + return df + suspended = df["volume"].isna() | (df["volume"] <= 0) + df.loc[suspended, ["open", "high", "low", "close", "vwap"]] = np.nan df = df.groupby("asset").ffill(limit=5) - - # Drop rows where close is still NaN after ffill df = df.dropna(subset=["close"]) + return canonicalize_panel_index(df) - return df + def _fetch_daily_prices(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Fetch daily OHLCV as **raw** prices plus the adjustment divisor. + + Tushare reports raw prices and a cumulative multiplier + ``native_factor`` (``hfq = raw * native_factor``). The shared + provider contract is raw ``close`` plus a *divisor* + ``adj_factor = 1 / native_factor``, so the pipeline's + ``close_adj = close / adj_factor`` reproduces the same hfq levels + that this module used to pre-multiply into ``close`` while the stored + price is now the tradeable CNY price (D15/D18). The adjustment is + applied exactly once, by the pipeline. + + Every batch is retried with exponential backoff. If any batch (daily + or adj_factor) still fails, the whole fetch raises + :class:`DataFetchIncompleteError` — a partially adjusted panel (raw prices + next to adjusted prices) must never be returned or cached. + """ + all_frames, adj_frames, missing = self._fetch_price_frames( + api, codes, self.start_date, self.end_date, strict=True, + ) + if missing: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare price fetch incomplete: " + f"{len(missing)} symbol(s) missing from the response " + f"(e.g. {sorted(missing)[:10]})" + ) + df = self._assemble_price_frames(all_frames, adj_frames) + if df.empty: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError("Tushare price fetch returned no data") + return self._finalize_daily_prices(df) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Financials (PIT) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def _fetch_financials(self, api, codes: list[str]) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Fetch quarterly financial indicators.""" - all_frames = [] + """Fetch quarterly financial indicators, keyed to announcement dates. + + Rows are mapped to the first trading day on/after their announcement + (``f_ann_date``, falling back to ``ann_date``), then forward-filled — + never backward-filled. If any batch fails after retries, or the API + returns no usable rows, this raises instead of substituting synthetic + financials that would then be cached as real data. + """ + if self._prices is None: + self._prices = self._fetch_daily_prices(api, codes) + + all_frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + failed_symbols: set[str] = set() for i in range(0, len(codes), 30): - batch = codes[i:i + 30] + batch = list(codes[i:i + 30]) ts_codes = ",".join(batch) - try: - df = api.fina_indicator( + df = self._call_with_retries( + f"fina_indicator batch {i // 30}", + api.fina_indicator, ts_code=ts_codes, start_date=self.start_date.replace("-", ""), end_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), - fields="ts_code,end_date,total_mv,total_assets,total_hldr_eqy_inc_min_int," - "revenue,net_profit,roe,pb,pe,eps", + fields="ts_code,ann_date,f_ann_date,end_date,total_mv,total_assets," + "total_hldr_eqy_inc_min_int,revenue,net_profit,roe,pb,pe,eps", ) - if df is not None and len(df) > 0: - all_frames.append(df) - except Exception as e: - logger.debug("Financials batch %d failed: %s", i // 30, e) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + failed_symbols.update(batch) + continue + if df is not None and len(df) > 0: + all_frames.append(df) + if failed_symbols: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare financial fetch incomplete: " + f"{len(failed_symbols)} symbol(s) failed after retries " + f"(e.g. {sorted(failed_symbols)[:10]})" + ) if not all_frames: - logger.warning("No financial data from Tushare, generating synthetic financials") - return self._generate_synthetic_financials() + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare returned no financial data; refusing to substitute " + "synthetic financials and cache them as real" + ) df = pd.concat(all_frames, ignore_index=True) - df["end_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["end_date"], format="%Y%m%d") - df = df.rename(columns={ - "ts_code": "asset", - "end_date": "date", - "total_mv": "market_cap", - "total_assets": "total_assets", - "total_hldr_eqy_inc_min_int": "net_assets", - "revenue": "revenue", - "net_profit": "net_profit", - "roe": "roe", - "pb": "pb_ratio", - "pe": "pe_ratio", - }) + required = {"ts_code", "end_date", "ann_date", "f_ann_date"} + missing = required - set(df.columns) + if missing: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + f"Tushare fina_indicator response missing announcement columns: " + f"{sorted(missing)}" + ) + + df["period_end"] = pd.to_datetime( + df["end_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce" + ) + ann_date = pd.to_datetime(df["ann_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce") + f_ann_date = pd.to_datetime(df["f_ann_date"], format="%Y%m%d", errors="coerce") + # Actual announcement date wins; ann_date is the fallback. + publish_date = f_ann_date.where(f_ann_date.notna(), ann_date) + missing_ann = int(publish_date.isna().sum()) + if missing_ann: + logger.warning( + "Tushare financials: %d row(s) have no ann_date/f_ann_date and " + "cannot be made point-in-time; dropping them", + missing_ann, + ) + keep = publish_date.notna() + df = df.loc[keep].copy() + publish_date = publish_date.loc[keep] + if df.empty: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare financials have no announcement dates; cannot build a " + "point-in-time panel" + ) + + df = df.rename(columns={"ts_code": "asset"}) + df["publish_date"] = publish_date.to_numpy() + df["market_cap"] = ( + pd.to_numeric(df["total_mv"], errors="coerce") * _TEN_THOUSAND_CNY_TO_CNY + ) + df["total_assets"] = pd.to_numeric(df["total_assets"], errors="coerce") + df["net_assets"] = pd.to_numeric( + df["total_hldr_eqy_inc_min_int"], errors="coerce" + ) + df["revenue"] = pd.to_numeric(df["revenue"], errors="coerce") + df["net_profit"] = pd.to_numeric(df["net_profit"], errors="coerce") + # Tushare reports roe in percent; the provider contract is a fraction. + df["roe"] = pd.to_numeric(df["roe"], errors="coerce") / 100.0 + df["pb_ratio"] = pd.to_numeric(df["pb"], errors="coerce") + df["pe_ratio"] = pd.to_numeric(df["pe"], errors="coerce") + + # Asset growth YoY (4 quarters) on the report sequence. + df = df.sort_values(["asset", "period_end"]) + df["asset_growth"] = ( + df.groupby("asset", sort=False)["total_assets"] + .pct_change(4, fill_method=None) + ) - # Compute asset_growth YoY - df = df.sort_values(["asset", "date"]) - df["asset_growth"] = df.groupby("asset")["total_assets"].pct_change(4) # 4 quarters + # Map each report to the first trading day on/after its announcement. + trading_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + self._prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + if len(trading_dates) == 0: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError("Tushare financials: empty price calendar") + positions = trading_dates.searchsorted( + df["publish_date"].to_numpy(), side="left" + ) + in_sample = positions < len(trading_dates) + dropped = int((~in_sample).sum()) + if dropped: + logger.warning( + "Tushare financials: %d asset-report(s) published after the " + "last trading day (%s) are outside the sample", + dropped, trading_dates[-1].date(), + ) + df = df.loc[in_sample].copy() + if df.empty: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare financials: no report was published inside the sample" + ) + df["date"] = trading_dates[positions[in_sample]] + keep_cols = [ + "date", "asset", "market_cap", "total_assets", "net_assets", + "revenue", "net_profit", "roe", "pb_ratio", "pe_ratio", + "asset_growth", "publish_date", + ] + df = df[keep_cols] + df = df.drop_duplicates(subset=["date", "asset"], keep="last") df = df.set_index(["date", "asset"]).sort_index() - # Forward-fill to daily - all_dates = self._prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + # Forward-fill to daily frequency (a report stays valid until the next + # one); deliberately no bfill. full_idx = pd.MultiIndex.from_product( - [all_dates, pd.Index(codes, name="asset")] + [trading_dates, pd.Index(codes, name="asset")], + names=["date", "asset"], ) df_full = df.reindex(full_idx) df_full = df_full.groupby("asset").ffill() - df_full = df_full.groupby("asset").bfill() - - return df_full - def _generate_synthetic_financials(self) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Generate minimal synthetic financials as fallback.""" - from quant_platform.data.providers.synthetic import SyntheticDataProvider - sp = SyntheticDataProvider( - n_stocks=len(self._metadata), - start_date=self.start_date, - end_date=self.end_date, - ) - # Hijack synthetic's financial generator - sp._dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( - self._prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique(), name="date" - ) - sp._assets = list(self._metadata.index) - sp._sector_map = self._metadata["sector"].to_dict() - return sp._generate_financials() + return canonicalize_panel_index(df_full) def _fetch_index_daily(self, api) -> pd.Series: - """Fetch CSI 300 index daily data.""" + """Fetch CSI 300 index daily data (trailing returns convention).""" try: - df = api.index_daily( + df = self._call_with_retries( + "index_daily", + api.index_daily, ts_code=self.index_code, start_date=self.start_date.replace("-", ""), end_date=self.end_date.replace("-", ""), @@ -490,15 +2396,554 @@ def _fetch_index_daily(self, api) -> pd.Series: if df is not None and len(df) > 0: df["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["trade_date"], format="%Y%m%d") df = df.set_index("trade_date").sort_index() - returns = df["pct_chg"] / 100.0 + returns = pd.to_numeric(df["pct_chg"], errors="coerce") / 100.0 returns.name = "benchmark" - return returns + self.benchmark_source = "index_daily" + return returns.dropna() except Exception as e: logger.warning("Failed to fetch CSI 300 index: %s", e) # Fallback: compute equal-weight benchmark from prices logger.info("Using equal-weight benchmark as fallback") - close = self._prices["close"].unstack("asset") + self.benchmark_source = "equal_weight_fallback" + if self._prices is None or self._prices.empty: + return pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") + # Use the adjusted (return-generating) series: raw prices jump on + # ex-dividend/split dates, which would fabricate benchmark returns. + adjusted = self._prices["close"] / self._prices["adj_factor"] + close = adjusted.unstack("asset") daily_ret = close.pct_change(fill_method=None).mean(axis=1) daily_ret.name = "benchmark" return daily_ret.fillna(0) + + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Incremental updates (D32) + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + def _incremental_cache_candidates(self) -> list[tuple]: + """Valid cached panels for this index/start, oldest end date first. + + A candidate is trusted only when its sidecar manifest matches the + current schema/cache/adjustment versions *and* the index/start/end + recorded for its own file name. Legacy files without a completion + marker are still listed here; :meth:`update` rejects them and does a + full refetch (never an append with an unknown boundary). + """ + prefix = f"tushare_{self.index_code}_{self.start_date}_" + candidates: list[tuple] = [] + for path in self.cache_dir.glob( + f"tushare_{self.index_code}_{self.start_date}_*.h5" + ): + name = path.name + if not (name.startswith(prefix) and name.endswith(".h5")): + continue + end_str = name[len(prefix):-len(".h5")] + try: + end_ts = pd.Timestamp(end_str).normalize() + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + if not self._cache_manifest_valid(path, expected_end=end_str): + continue + manifest = read_cache_manifest(path) or {} + candidates.append((end_ts, end_str, path, manifest)) + candidates.sort(key=lambda item: item[0]) + return candidates + + @staticmethod + def _delisted_symbols(metadata: pd.DataFrame | None, before) -> set[str]: + """Symbols whose provider-stated delisting date is <= ``before``.""" + if metadata is None or "delisting_date" not in metadata.columns: + return set() + dates = pd.to_datetime(metadata["delisting_date"], errors="coerce") + cutoff = pd.Timestamp(before).normalize() + return { + str(asset) for asset, value in dates.items() + if pd.notna(value) and pd.Timestamp(value).normalize() <= cutoff + } + + def _fetch_adj_map( + self, api, codes: list[str], start_date: str, end_date: str, + ) -> tuple[pd.Series, set[str]]: + """Cumulative native factors for the whole cached range. + + Corporate actions rescale adjusted history and vendors revise + factors; an append that only fetches factors for the new window can + therefore leave the stored adjusted series inconsistent with a full + fetch. Tushare's adj_factor endpoint is cheap, so every incremental + update refreshes it for the full cached range (D32 requirement 3). + + Returns ``(factors, missing_symbols)``; the caller treats any missing + symbol as an incomplete update rather than silently keeping old + factors for part of the panel (a mixed adjustment basis). + """ + frames: list[pd.DataFrame] = [] + failed: set[str] = set() + missing: set[str] = set() + batch_size = 50 + for i in range(0, len(codes), batch_size): + batch = list(codes[i:i + batch_size]) + try: + frame = self._call_with_retries( + f"adj_factor refresh batch {i // batch_size}", + self._fetch_batch_adj, api, batch, + start_date, end_date, strict=False, + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + logger.error("%s", exc) + failed.update(batch) + continue + frames.append(frame) + if frame is not None: + missing |= set(batch) - set( + frame["ts_code"].astype(str).unique() + ) + if failed: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError( + "Tushare adj_factor refresh incomplete: " + f"{len(failed)} symbol(s) failed after retries " + f"(e.g. {sorted(failed)[:10]})" + ) + frames = [frame for frame in frames if frame is not None and len(frame)] + if not frames: + raise DataFetchIncompleteError("Tushare adj_factor refresh returned no data") + adj = pd.concat(frames, ignore_index=True) + adj["trade_date"] = pd.to_datetime(adj["trade_date"], format="%Y%m%d") + adj = adj.rename(columns={ + "ts_code": "asset", "trade_date": "date", "adj_factor": "native_factor", + }) + adj["native_factor"] = pd.to_numeric(adj["native_factor"], errors="coerce") + valid = np.isfinite(adj["native_factor"]) & (adj["native_factor"] > 0) + adj = adj.loc[valid] + factors = 1.0 / adj["native_factor"] + factors.index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays( + [adj["date"], adj["asset"]], names=["date", "asset"], + ) + factors = factors[~factors.index.duplicated(keep="last")].sort_index() + factors.name = "adj_factor" + return factors, missing + + def _status_payload(self, **overrides) -> dict: + status = { + "supported": True, + "performed": False, + "full_refetch": False, + "new_sessions": 0, + "requested_end": str(self.end_date), + "last_complete_date": None, + "previous_last_complete_date": None, + "updated_at": None, + "data_age_days": None, + "incomplete": False, + "missing_symbols": [], + "reason": "", + } + status.update(overrides) + return status + + def _remember_status(self, status: dict, *, source: str) -> dict: + """Expose the marker through :meth:`data_status` for provenance.""" + self._data_status = { + "last_complete_date": status.get("last_complete_date"), + "requested_end": status.get("requested_end"), + "updated_at": status.get("updated_at"), + "data_age_days": status.get("data_age_days"), + "incomplete": bool(status.get("incomplete")), + "source": source, + } + return status + + def _full_refetch_status(self, reason: str, previous_marker=None) -> dict: + """Fallback: fetch the requested range from scratch and publish it.""" + logger.warning( + "Incremental update fell back to a full refetch: %s", reason, + ) + # A fallback exists precisely because the cached selection may be + # stale or unreadable; resolve the constituent universe afresh rather + # than reusing whatever the old cache left in memory. + self._constituent_history = None + self._fetch_all_from_tushare() + panel_end = panel_last_date(self._prices) + marker, incomplete = complete_panel_marker( + self._prices, + delisted=self._delisted_symbols(self._metadata, panel_end), + ) + extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=marker, + requested_end=self.end_date, + previous_last_complete_date=previous_marker, + new_sessions=0, + incomplete=incomplete, + source="full_refetch", + ) + self._save_to_cache(self._cache_file(), extra=extra) + status = self._status_payload( + performed=False, + full_refetch=True, + last_complete_date=extra["last_complete_date"], + previous_last_complete_date=extra["previous_last_complete_date"], + updated_at=extra["updated_at"], + data_age_days=extra["data_age_days"], + incomplete=incomplete, + reason=reason, + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_file(), status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="full_refetch") + + def _incomplete_status( + self, reason: str, *, marker, missing: set[str] | None = None, + ) -> dict: + """Partial response: keep the old cache and do not advance the marker.""" + logger.warning( + "Incremental update incomplete (%s); keeping the cached panel " + "through %s and not advancing the completion marker", + reason, marker, + ) + status = self._status_payload( + performed=False, + last_complete_date=( + pd.Timestamp(marker).date().isoformat() + if marker is not None else None + ), + incomplete=True, + missing_symbols=sorted(str(code) for code in (missing or set()))[:20], + reason=reason, + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_file(), status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + def update(self, start_date: str = None, end_date: str = None) -> dict: + """Append new exchange sessions to the cached panel (D32). + + Steps: locate the newest compatible cache for this index and + (start, earlier end); read its completion marker (never the last row + alone); fetch ``marker + 1 session`` through the requested end with one + overlap session; verify the constituent universe is unchanged (a + change forces a full refetch); merge with ``keep="last"``; refresh + ``adj_factor`` for the whole cached range; refetch financials, + metadata and benchmark for the requested range; refresh the ST feed + for the appended window and re-derive episodes against the extended + panel; and publish data+manifest atomically under the provider cache + lock. + + Any partial response returns ``incomplete=True`` with the old cache + untouched -- the marker only advances after a complete publish. + """ + if start_date: + self.start_date = str(start_date) + if end_date: + self.end_date = str(end_date) + requested_end = pd.Timestamp(self.end_date).normalize() + + candidates = self._incremental_cache_candidates() + if not candidates: + return self._full_refetch_status( + "no compatible cached panel for this index/start range" + ) + + # Coverage is judged by the completion marker, never by the cache file + # name: a cache fetched for a longer range can still have a marker + # behind the requested end (the last day was partial or the provider + # lagged). A longer file is a usable *base*, not proof of coverage. + covering = [item for item in candidates if item[0] <= requested_end] + end_ts, end_str, path, manifest = ( + covering[-1] if covering else candidates[-1] + ) + try: + self._load_from_cache(path, expected_end=end_str) + except Exception as exc: + return self._full_refetch_status( + f"cached panel could not be loaded: {exc}" + ) + + marker_raw = manifest.get("last_complete_date") + if not marker_raw or manifest.get("incomplete"): + return self._full_refetch_status( + "cached panel has no trustworthy completion marker" + ) + marker = pd.Timestamp(marker_raw).normalize() + panel_end = panel_last_date(self._prices) + if panel_end is None or pd.Timestamp(panel_end).normalize() < marker: + # The data file is older than its marker (concurrent publish or a + # corrupt pair). Appending from this base could create a hole, so + # refetch instead. + return self._full_refetch_status( + "cached panel ends before its completion marker " + "(concurrent writer or corrupt cache)" + ) + if requested_end <= marker: + status = self._status_payload( + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + data_age_days=manifest.get("data_age_days"), + reason="completion marker already covers the requested end", + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + if end_ts > requested_end: + # The loaded panel runs past the requested end but its marker does + # not: use the rows up to the request as the append base and + # publish a requested-end cache. + self._prices = self._prices.loc[:pd.Timestamp(requested_end)] + logger.info( + "Newest cache %s extends past the requested end %s but its " + "marker is %s; appending up to the requested end", + end_str, self.end_date, marker.date(), + ) + + api = self.ts_api + if api is None: + raise RuntimeError("Tushare API not available") + + # Universe/adjustment-basis guard: an index rebalance changes the + # panel beyond an append; refetch in full instead of mixing universes. + cached_codes: set[str] = set() + if self._constituent_history is not None and len(self._constituent_history): + cached_codes = { + str(code) for code in + self._constituent_history["ts_code"].dropna().unique() + } + fresh = self._fetch_constituents(api) + fresh_codes = { + str(code) for code in fresh["ts_code"].dropna().unique() + } if fresh is not None and len(fresh) else set() + if not fresh_codes: + return self._full_refetch_status( + "constituent universe could not be verified" + ) + if not cached_codes: + return self._full_refetch_status( + "cached panel has no constituent history to append to" + ) + if fresh_codes != cached_codes: + return self._full_refetch_status( + "constituent universe changed " + f"({len(cached_codes)} -> {len(fresh_codes)} symbols)" + ) + self._constituent_history = fresh + codes = sorted(fresh_codes) + try: + self._metadata = self._fetch_stock_basic(api, codes) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status( + f"metadata refetch failed: {exc}", marker=marker, + ) + + window_start = incremental_fetch_start( + marker, requested_end, overlap=INCREMENTAL_OVERLAP_SESSIONS, + ) + if window_start is None: + status = self._status_payload( + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + reason="no exchange session between the marker and the end", + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + try: + frames, adj_frames, _missing_daily = self._fetch_price_frames( + api, codes, str(window_start.date()), str(requested_end.date()), + strict=False, + ) + new_prices = self._assemble_price_frames(frames, adj_frames) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status(str(exc), marker=marker) + + window_label = ( + f"{pd.Timestamp(window_start).date()}..{requested_end.date()}" + ) + if new_prices is None or new_prices.empty: + logger.warning( + "Incremental fetch for %s returned no rows; keeping the " + "cached panel (reported as incomplete/stale, not fresh)", + window_label, + ) + status = self._status_payload( + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + incomplete=True, + reason="provider returned no rows for the new sessions", + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_file(), status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + + boundary_symbols = symbols_on_date(self._prices, marker) + delisted_before_window = self._delisted_symbols( + self._metadata, window_start, + ) + new_dates = [ + day for day in pd.DatetimeIndex( + new_prices.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).normalize() if day > marker + ] + if not new_dates: + logger.warning( + "Incremental fetch for %s returned only overlap rows; " + "keeping the cached panel (reported as incomplete/stale)", + window_label, + ) + status = self._status_payload( + performed=True, + last_complete_date=marker.date().isoformat(), + updated_at=manifest.get("updated_at"), + incomplete=True, + reason="provider returned no rows after the completion marker", + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_file(), status) + return self._remember_status(status, source="cache_manifest") + window_symbols = { + str(code) for code in new_prices.index[ + new_prices.index.get_level_values("date").isin(new_dates) + ].get_level_values("asset") + } + missing_window = ( + boundary_symbols - window_symbols - delisted_before_window + ) + if missing_window: + return self._incomplete_status( + "provider response is missing symbols that traded on the " + "completion marker", + marker=marker, + missing=missing_window, + ) + + merged = pd.concat([self._prices, new_prices]).sort_index() + merged = deduplicate_panel(merged, "prices") + + # Refresh the divisor over the whole cached range (D32 req. 3): a + # corporate action / factor revision must never leave old rows on a + # different adjustment basis than the rows appended after it. + try: + factor_map, missing_refresh = self._fetch_adj_map( + api, codes, + str(merged.index.get_level_values("date").min().date()), + str(requested_end.date()), + ) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + return self._incomplete_status( + f"adjustment-factor refresh failed: {exc}", marker=marker, + ) + priced_assets = { + str(asset) for asset in merged.index.get_level_values("asset") + } + factor_assets = { + str(asset) + for asset in factor_map.index.get_level_values("asset") + } + uncovered = priced_assets - factor_assets + if missing_refresh or uncovered: + return self._incomplete_status( + "adjustment-factor refresh did not cover every priced symbol " + f"({len(missing_refresh | uncovered)} uncovered)", + marker=marker, + missing=missing_refresh | uncovered, + ) + refreshed = factor_map.reindex(merged.index) + refreshed_mask = refreshed.notna() & np.isfinite(refreshed) + merged = merged.copy() + merged.loc[refreshed_mask, "adj_factor"] = refreshed[refreshed_mask] + # New rows must have received a refreshed factor; cached suspension + # fills may legitimately have no factor row on a suspended date and + # keep the factor carried from the last action. + appended_rows = ( + merged.index.get_level_values("date") > marker + ) & merged["close"].notna() + unprotected = appended_rows & ~refreshed_mask + if bool(unprotected.any()) or bool( + (merged["close"].notna() & merged["adj_factor"].isna()).any() + ): + return self._incomplete_status( + "adjustment factors could not be refreshed for every priced " + "row", marker=marker, + ) + + merged = self._finalize_daily_prices(merged) + + # A truncated last day must not advance the marker. Zero + # tolerance: without a suspension feed a missing name cannot be + # distinguished from truncation. + merged_dates = pd.DatetimeIndex( + merged.index.get_level_values("date").unique() + ).sort_values() + previous_symbols = ( + symbols_on_date(merged, merged_dates[-2]) + if len(merged_dates) >= 2 else set() + ) + delisted_on_last = self._delisted_symbols( + self._metadata, panel_last_date(merged), + ) + missing_last = last_day_missing_symbols( + merged, delisted=delisted_on_last, + ) + if missing_last: + return self._incomplete_status( + "last session of the provider response is missing symbols " + f"present on the previous session ({len(missing_last)} of " + f"{len(previous_symbols)})", + marker=marker, + missing=missing_last, + ) + + merged_date_set = set(merged_dates.normalize()) + expected_sessions = exchange_sessions( + marker + pd.Timedelta(days=1), panel_last_date(merged), + ) + missing_dates = [ + day for day in expected_sessions if day not in merged_date_set + ] + if missing_dates: + return self._incomplete_status( + "provider response is missing exchange sessions: " + + ", ".join(str(day.date()) for day in missing_dates[:5]), + marker=marker, + ) + + new_marker = panel_last_date(merged) + new_sessions = sessions_after(marker, new_marker) + old_prices = self._prices + self._prices = merged + + # Financials/benchmark are date-range products, not per-session + # appends: refetch them against the extended range so the incremental + # dataset equals a full fetch byte-for-byte. A failure here keeps the + # old cache/marker intact and must not abort the research run. + try: + financials = self._fetch_financials(api, codes) + benchmark = self._fetch_index_daily(api) + except DataFetchIncompleteError as exc: + self._prices = old_prices + return self._incomplete_status( + f"financials/benchmark refetch failed: {exc}", marker=marker, + ) + self._financials = financials + self._benchmark = benchmark + + # ST feed: append window name changes and re-derive episodes against + # the extended panel (an open ST interval is capped at the panel end). + self._refresh_st_after_update(api, marker, requested_end, codes) + + extra = incremental_marker_extra( + last_complete_date=new_marker, + requested_end=self.end_date, + previous_last_complete_date=marker, + new_sessions=new_sessions, + incomplete=False, + source="incremental", + ) + self._save_to_cache(self._cache_file(), extra=extra) + status = self._status_payload( + performed=True, + new_sessions=new_sessions, + last_complete_date=extra["last_complete_date"], + previous_last_complete_date=extra["previous_last_complete_date"], + updated_at=extra["updated_at"], + data_age_days=extra["data_age_days"], + reason=f"appended {new_sessions} session(s) from {window_label}", + ) + write_incremental_status(self._cache_file(), status) + logger.info( + "Incremental update appended %d session(s); completion marker %s", + new_sessions, extra["last_complete_date"], + ) + return self._remember_status(status, source="incremental") diff --git a/data/providers/validated_provider.py b/data/providers/validated_provider.py index 8720875..d2fbc23 100644 --- a/data/providers/validated_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/validated_provider.py @@ -4,6 +4,19 @@ Instead of trusting a single data source, queries 2+ providers and compares results. Returns fused data with confidence scores. +Price basis contract +-------------------- +Price panels are only fused when every contributing source declares the +same close basis. Mixing a raw (CNY) panel with an adjusted one would +average incomparable levels, so :class:`DataDiscrepancyError` is raised +instead of silently coercing either side. The fused frame keeps the +reference source's ``adj_factor`` column (a divisor is only meaningful +against its own provider's reference date) and the reference source's +basis ``attrs`` (``price_basis`` / ``adjusted_price_basis`` / +``adjustment_factor_available``), so ``DataPipeline.get_raw_close()`` +continues to work on validated runs. The resolved declaration is also +forwarded onto the wrapper itself (``price_adjustment`` etc.). + Confidence scoring: ≥0.90 — Multiple sources agree (deviation < threshold) 0.70-0.89 — Single source only, or small deviations @@ -21,7 +34,12 @@ import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from quant_platform.data.providers.base import DataProvider +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + DataProvider, + empty_corporate_actions, + normalize_corporate_actions, +) +from quant_platform.data.schema import PRICE_COLUMNS, DataQualityError logger = logging.getLogger(__name__) @@ -35,9 +53,13 @@ PRICE_DEVIATION_THRESHOLD = 2.0 # 2% for prices FINANCIAL_DEVIATION_THRESHOLD = 10.0 # 10% for financial metrics +# Provider declarations that mean "raw close" in the shared divisor contract. +_RAW_DECLARATIONS = frozenset({"raw", "synthetic_adj_factor", "none"}) +_PRICE_BASES = frozenset({"raw", "qfq", "hfq"}) + -class DataDiscrepancyError(Exception): - """Raised when providers return conflicting data.""" +class DataDiscrepancyError(DataQualityError): + """Raised when providers return conflicting data (e.g. price bases).""" @dataclass @@ -74,6 +96,31 @@ def __init__( self.price_deviation = price_deviation self.fin_deviation = fin_deviation + # Forward the primary source's price-basis declaration. The primary + # defines the panel's semantics; DataPipeline reads these attributes + # through the wrapper when a frame carries no attrs of its own. + primary_provider = self.providers[self.primary] + self.price_adjustment = getattr( + primary_provider, "price_adjustment", "provider-defined", + ) + self.adjusted_price_basis = getattr( + primary_provider, "adjusted_price_basis", None, + ) + self.adjustment_factor_available = getattr( + primary_provider, "adjustment_factor_available", None, + ) + # Corporate actions follow the primary source only. Unlike prices, + # an action is a discrete corporate event and cannot be averaged: + # secondary feeds may carry different announcement dates, amounts or + # symbol conventions, and fusing them would invent events. The + # wrapper therefore forwards the primary's feed and availability flag + # unchanged; if the primary has no feed, the wrapper has none even + # when a secondary could supply one. + self.corporate_actions_available = bool( + getattr(primary_provider, "corporate_actions_available", False) + ) + self._corporate_actions_primary = primary_provider + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # DataProvider interface # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -84,6 +131,13 @@ def get_prices( end_date: str, fields: list[str] | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Validated price panel with the reference source's basis contract. + + The returned frame carries ``adj_factor`` (when the reference source + supplies it) and the ``price_basis`` / ``adjusted_price_basis`` / + ``adjustment_factor_available`` attrs, so it can be handed to + :class:`~quant_platform.data.pipeline.DataPipeline` unchanged. + """ return self.get_validated_prices(start_date, end_date, fields).values def get_validated_prices( @@ -140,6 +194,45 @@ def get_validated_benchmark( def get_metadata(self) -> pd.DataFrame: return self.providers[self.primary].get_metadata() + def get_corporate_actions( + self, + start_date: str, + end_date: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Forward the primary source's corporate-action feed, unabridged. + + The primary defines the price panel's basis, so its action feed is + the only one consistent with the raw closes a paper book trades. + Secondary providers are deliberately ignored (see ``__init__``): a + secondary-only feed is not used, and mismatched feeds are not + silently merged. A failing feed fails closed as the documented empty + frame with ``corporate_actions_available = False`` -- never as + fabricated actions. + """ + getter = getattr( + self._corporate_actions_primary, "get_corporate_actions", None, + ) + if not callable(getter): + self.corporate_actions_available = False + return empty_corporate_actions() + try: + frame = normalize_corporate_actions(getter(start_date, end_date)) + except Exception as exc: # a broken feed is unavailable, not fatal + logger.warning( + "Primary corporate-action feed failed for %s..%s: %s", + start_date, end_date, exc, + ) + self.corporate_actions_available = False + return empty_corporate_actions() + declared = bool( + getattr( + self._corporate_actions_primary, + "corporate_actions_available", False, + ) + ) + self.corporate_actions_available = declared or bool(len(frame)) + return frame + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Cross-validation logic # ------------------------------------------------------------------ @@ -164,6 +257,13 @@ def _validate( results[name] = result else: errors[name] = "Empty result" + except DataQualityError: + # A source that violates the data contract (wrong index, + # missing columns, double-adjusted prices) returns corrupt + # data, not merely unavailable data. Masking it as a failed + # source would silently serve a different panel under the + # validated label. + raise except Exception as e: errors[name] = str(e) logger.debug("Provider %s failed for %s: %s", name, method, e) @@ -172,8 +272,14 @@ def _validate( logger.error( "All providers failed for %s: %s", method, errors, ) + if method == "get_prices": + values: pd.DataFrame | pd.Series = self._empty_price_panel() + elif method == "get_benchmark": + values = pd.Series(dtype=float, name="benchmark") + else: + values = pd.DataFrame() return ValidatedResult( - values=pd.DataFrame(), + values=values, confidence=UNUSABLE, n_sources=0, discrepancies=[f"All sources failed: {errors}"], @@ -181,12 +287,18 @@ def _validate( if len(results) == 1: name = next(iter(results.keys())) + value = results[name] + if method == "get_prices" and isinstance(value, pd.DataFrame): + # No fusion happened; still stamp the source's explicit basis + # so a validated run resolves the same contract as a direct + # run of that provider. + value = self._tag_price_frame(value, name) logger.info( "Single source %s for %s — confidence %.2f", name, method, MEDIUM_CONFIDENCE, ) return ValidatedResult( - values=results[name], + values=value, confidence=MEDIUM_CONFIDENCE, n_sources=1, ) @@ -204,7 +316,12 @@ def _compare( Calculates pair-wise deviations. If all within threshold, fuses them (mean). Otherwise returns primary with warning. + Price panels are only fused when the sources declare the same + close basis; a mismatch raises before any averaging. """ + if method == "get_prices": + self._check_price_basis(results) + items = list(results.items()) discrepancies = [] max_deviation = 0.0 @@ -230,8 +347,19 @@ def _compare( logger.warning( "%d discrepancies found in %s", len(discrepancies), method, ) - # Return primary source with low confidence, plus discrepancies - primary_result = results[self.primary] + # Return primary source with low confidence, plus discrepancies. + # The primary may itself have failed (only secondaries agreed to + # disagree); fall back to the first successful source. + if self.primary in results: + primary_result = results[self.primary] + else: + primary_result = next(iter(results.values())) + if method == "get_prices" and isinstance(primary_result, pd.DataFrame): + primary_result = self._tag_price_frame( + primary_result, + self.primary if self.primary in results + else next(iter(results)), + ) return ValidatedResult( values=primary_result, confidence=max(MEDIUM_CONFIDENCE - 0.25 * len(discrepancies), LOW_CONFIDENCE), @@ -240,7 +368,7 @@ def _compare( ) # All sources agree — fuse by averaging - fused = self._fuse(results) + fused = self._fuse(results, method) confidence = HIGH_CONFIDENCE - 0.05 * (len(results) - 2) confidence = min(confidence, 0.99) logger.info( @@ -292,16 +420,226 @@ def _compute_deviation( except Exception: return 100.0 + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + # Price-basis helpers + # ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + @staticmethod + def _frame_price_basis( + provider: DataProvider, + frame: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> tuple[str, str, bool]: + """Resolve ``(price_basis, adjusted_price_basis, factor_available)``. + + Frame ``attrs`` are authoritative (same precedence as + ``DataPipeline._resolve_price_basis``), then the provider's + ``price_adjustment`` declaration. Without either, a non-constant + ``adj_factor`` column means the shared raw-close + divisor contract; + everything else stays ``unknown`` rather than being guessed. + """ + attrs = getattr(frame, "attrs", {}) or {} + declared = attrs.get("price_basis") + if declared is None: + declared = getattr(provider, "price_adjustment", None) + text = str(declared or "").strip().lower() + if text in _RAW_DECLARATIONS: + basis = "raw" + elif text in {"qfq", "hfq"}: + basis = text + else: + basis = "unknown" + + factor_varies = False + if "adj_factor" in getattr(frame, "columns", ()) and len(frame): + factor = pd.to_numeric(frame["adj_factor"], errors="coerce") + values = factor.to_numpy(dtype=float) + finite = np.isfinite(values) + factor_varies = bool( + finite.any() + and (np.abs(values[finite] - 1.0) > 1e-12).any() + ) + if basis == "unknown" and factor_varies: + basis = "raw" + + available = attrs.get("adjustment_factor_available") + if available is None: + available = getattr( + provider, "adjustment_factor_available", None, + ) + if available is None: + available = bool(factor_varies) + + adjusted = attrs.get("adjusted_price_basis") + if adjusted is None: + adjusted = getattr(provider, "adjusted_price_basis", None) + adjusted = str(adjusted or "").strip().lower() + if adjusted not in _PRICE_BASES: + if basis in {"qfq", "hfq"}: + adjusted = basis + elif basis == "raw": + # The shared divisor contract produces a back-adjusted (hfq) + # series; a provider with no corporate-action factor keeps + # the raw series as its research path. + adjusted = "hfq" if available else "raw" + else: + adjusted = "unknown" + + return basis, adjusted, bool(available) + + def _check_price_basis( + self, results: dict[str, pd.DataFrame | pd.Series], + ) -> None: + """Refuse to fuse price panels whose close bases disagree. + + Averaging a raw level with an adjusted one silently corrupts both + the panel and any downstream return series, so a mismatch (or a + known basis mixed with an undeclared source) is a hard error rather + than an implicit normalization. Fully undeclared legacy frames are + left to the existing deviation checks (no basis evidence exists to + compare). + """ + bases = { + name: self._frame_price_basis(self.providers[name], frame)[0] + for name, frame in results.items() + if isinstance(frame, pd.DataFrame) + } + known = {name: basis for name, basis in bases.items() if basis != "unknown"} + unknown = [name for name, basis in bases.items() if basis == "unknown"] + if len(set(known.values())) > 1 or (known and unknown): + detail = ", ".join(f"{name}={basis}" for name, basis in bases.items()) + raise DataDiscrepancyError( + "Refusing to fuse price panels with incompatible close bases " + f"({detail}). Raw and adjusted levels (and undeclared " + "sources) cannot be averaged. Configure sources with the " + "same adjustment basis, or use a single primary source for " + "prices." + ) + + def _empty_price_panel(self) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Contract-shaped empty price panel (MultiIndex + declared basis). + + Used when every source failed: callers still get a frame the + pipeline can validate (and a confidence of ``UNUSABLE`` with the + per-source errors), instead of an opaque ``DataContractError`` about + a RangeIndex that hides the real cause. + """ + index = pd.MultiIndex.from_arrays([[], []], names=["date", "asset"]) + empty = pd.DataFrame(index=index, columns=list(PRICE_COLUMNS), dtype=float) + empty.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": self.price_adjustment, + "adjusted_price_basis": self.adjusted_price_basis, + "adjustment_factor_available": bool( + self.adjustment_factor_available + ), + }) + return empty + + def _tag_price_frame( + self, frame: pd.DataFrame, name: str, + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Stamp the resolved basis contract onto a price frame.""" + basis, adjusted, available = self._frame_price_basis( + self.providers[name], frame, + ) + frame.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": basis, + "adjusted_price_basis": adjusted, + "adjustment_factor_available": bool(available), + }) + return frame + + def _fuse_price_frames( + self, + results: dict[str, pd.DataFrame | pd.Series], + dfs: list[pd.DataFrame], + ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Fuse raw price panels without losing the adjustment contract. + + Values (except ``adj_factor``) are averaged across the sources that + provide each column. The divisor is *not* averaged: its scale + depends on the provider's reference date, so the reference source's + factor is carried over unchanged. The reference (primary when + available) also defines the column set and the basis attrs. + """ + reference_name = ( + self.primary if self.primary in results else next(iter(results)) + ) + reference = results[reference_name] + if not isinstance(reference, pd.DataFrame): + reference_name = next( + name for name, value in results.items() + if isinstance(value, pd.DataFrame) + ) + reference = results[reference_name] + basis, adjusted, available = self._frame_price_basis( + self.providers[reference_name], reference, + ) + for name, frame in results.items(): + if name == reference_name or not isinstance(frame, pd.DataFrame): + continue + _, other_adjusted, _ = self._frame_price_basis( + self.providers[name], frame, + ) + if other_adjusted != adjusted: + # Both closes are raw, but their adjustment paths differ + # (e.g. qfq vs hfq divisors). The fused panel keeps the + # reference's factor/basis; say so instead of coercing + # silently. + logger.warning( + "Fusing raw sources with different adjusted bases " + "(%s=%s, reference %s=%s); keeping the reference " + "divisor and adjusted basis", + name, other_adjusted, reference_name, adjusted, + ) + + if list(reference.index.names) == ["date", "asset"]: + fused = pd.concat(dfs).groupby( + level=["date", "asset"], + ).mean() + # The reference source defines the panel schema; columns only a + # validator carries are not part of the fused panel. + fused = fused[ + [c for c in reference.columns if c in fused.columns] + ] + else: + # Legacy wide frame (no (date, asset) MultiIndex contract yet): + # keep the historical arithmetic-mean behavior. + fused = sum(dfs) / len(dfs) + + # Restrict to the reference's row set. Averaging the union would + # emit rows only a validator covers, whose `adj_factor` cannot be + # taken from the reference (NaN -> the pipeline's repair fails + # closed) and whose close levels would carry the reference's basis + # attrs under mixed provenance. + fused = fused.loc[fused.index.isin(reference.index)] + + if ( + "adj_factor" in reference.columns + and "adj_factor" in fused.columns + ): + fused["adj_factor"] = reference["adj_factor"].reindex(fused.index) + + fused.attrs.update({ + "price_basis": basis, + "adjusted_price_basis": adjusted, + "adjustment_factor_available": bool(available), + }) + return fused + def _fuse( self, results: dict[str, pd.DataFrame | pd.Series], + method: str = "", ) -> pd.DataFrame | pd.Series: - """Fuse multiple results by mean.""" - # Simple average for now + """Fuse multiple results by mean (price panels keep their basis).""" first = list(results.values())[0] if isinstance(first, pd.DataFrame): dfs = [df for df in results.values() if isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame)] - return sum(dfs) / len(dfs) if len(dfs) > 0 else first + if not dfs: + return first + if method == "get_prices": + return self._fuse_price_frames(results, dfs) + return sum(dfs) / len(dfs) else: series_list = [s for s in results.values() if isinstance(s, pd.Series)] return sum(series_list) / len(series_list) if len(series_list) > 0 else first diff --git a/data/providers/websocket_provider.py b/data/providers/websocket_provider.py index c3f0dd5..7f95993 100644 --- a/data/providers/websocket_provider.py +++ b/data/providers/websocket_provider.py @@ -56,6 +56,8 @@ class RealtimeQuote: bid_volumes: list[float] = field(default_factory=list) ask_volumes: list[float] = field(default_factory=list) timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) + source: str = "" + simulated: bool = False def to_dict(self) -> dict: return { @@ -67,6 +69,8 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: "bid1_price": self.bid_prices[0] if self.bid_prices else 0, "ask1_price": self.ask_prices[0] if self.ask_prices else 0, "timestamp": self.timestamp, + "source": self.source, + "simulated": self.simulated, } @@ -78,15 +82,18 @@ class WebSocketQuoteProvider: Args: source: Data source ("eastmoney" or "sina") - reconnect_interval: Seconds between reconnection attempts - max_reconnect: Maximum reconnection attempts (0 = unlimited) + reconnect_interval: Initial seconds between reconnection attempts + max_reconnect: Maximum reconnection attempts before giving up + (default 10; pass 0 for the legacy unlimited behaviour) + max_backoff: Upper bound for the exponential reconnect delay """ def __init__( self, source: str = "eastmoney", reconnect_interval: float = 5.0, - max_reconnect: int = 0, + max_reconnect: int = 10, + max_backoff: float = 60.0, ): if not HAS_WEBSOCKET: raise ImportError( @@ -94,14 +101,17 @@ def __init__( ) self._source = source - self._reconnect_interval = reconnect_interval - self._max_reconnect = max_reconnect + self._reconnect_interval = max(0.0, float(reconnect_interval)) + self._max_reconnect = max(0, int(max_reconnect)) + self._max_backoff = max(self._reconnect_interval, float(max_backoff)) self._quotes: dict[str, RealtimeQuote] = {} self._lock = threading.Lock() self._ws: websocket.WebSocketApp | None = None self._thread: threading.Thread | None = None self._running = False + self._exhausted = False + self._last_error = "" self._subscribed_codes: set[str] = set() self._callbacks: list[Callable[[RealtimeQuote], None]] = [] self._reconnect_count = 0 @@ -143,6 +153,7 @@ def start(self): return self._running = True + self._exhausted = False self._thread = threading.Thread(target=self._run_loop, daemon=True) self._thread.start() logger.info("WebSocket provider started (source=%s)", self._source) @@ -160,27 +171,50 @@ def stop(self): def is_connected(self) -> bool: return self._running and self._ws is not None + @property + def status(self) -> str: + """Coarse health signal for monitoring.""" + if self._exhausted: + return "exhausted" + if not self._running: + return "stopped" + if self._ws is None: + return "connecting" + if self._last_message_time and time.time() - self._last_message_time > 60: + return "stale" + return "connected" + @property def stats(self) -> dict: return { "source": self._source, + "status": self.status, "connected": self.is_connected, + "exhausted": self._exhausted, + "last_error": self._last_error, "subscribed": len(self._subscribed_codes), "cached_quotes": len(self._quotes), "message_count": self._message_count, "last_message_age_s": round(time.time() - self._last_message_time, 1) if self._last_message_time else None, "reconnect_count": self._reconnect_count, + "max_reconnect": self._max_reconnect, } # ── Internal ── + def _backoff_delay(self) -> float: + """Exponential backoff, capped at ``max_backoff``.""" + exponent = max(0, self._reconnect_count - 1) + return min(self._reconnect_interval * (2 ** exponent), self._max_backoff) + def _run_loop(self): - """Reconnection loop.""" + """Reconnection loop with a finite cap and exponential backoff.""" while self._running: try: self._connect() except Exception as e: + self._last_error = str(e) logger.warning("WebSocket error: %s", e) if not self._running: @@ -188,11 +222,21 @@ def _run_loop(self): self._reconnect_count += 1 if self._max_reconnect and self._reconnect_count >= self._max_reconnect: - logger.error("Max reconnection attempts reached") + logger.error( + "Max reconnection attempts reached (%d); giving up", + self._max_reconnect, + ) + self._exhausted = True + self._running = False break - logger.info("Reconnecting in %.1fs...", self._reconnect_interval) - time.sleep(self._reconnect_interval) + delay = self._backoff_delay() + logger.info("Reconnecting in %.1fs...", delay) + deadline = time.time() + delay + # Sleep in small slices so stop() does not have to wait the whole + # (possibly minute-long) backoff. + while self._running and time.time() < deadline: + time.sleep(min(0.2, max(0.0, deadline - time.time()))) def _connect(self): """Create and run WebSocket connection.""" @@ -221,6 +265,8 @@ def _on_open(self, ws): """Called when connection opens.""" logger.info("WebSocket connected to %s", self._source) self._reconnect_count = 0 + self._exhausted = False + self._last_error = "" if self._subscribed_codes: self._send_subscribe(list(self._subscribed_codes)) @@ -249,6 +295,7 @@ def _on_message(self, ws, message: str): def _on_error(self, ws, error): """Called on WebSocket error.""" + self._last_error = str(error) logger.warning("WebSocket error: %s", error) def _on_close(self, ws, close_status_code, close_msg): @@ -291,17 +338,31 @@ def _parse_message(self, data: dict) -> list[RealtimeQuote]: items = data["data"] if isinstance(data["data"], list) else [data["data"]] for item in items: if isinstance(item, dict): + # East Money push ids: f2 latest, f3 change %, f12 + # code, f14 name, f15 high, f16 low, f17 open, + # f18 prev close, f5 volume (lots), f6 amount. + # f17 (open) used to be read as the latest price and + # f16 (low) as the open, so every consumer traded at + # the day's opening print. + raw_volume = item.get("volume") + if raw_volume is None: + # East Money reports volume in 手; normalise to + # shares so sources are interchangeable. + volume = float(item.get("f5", 0) or 0) * 100.0 + else: + volume = float(raw_volume or 0) q = RealtimeQuote( code=str(item.get("code", item.get("f12", ""))), name=item.get("name", item.get("f14", "")), - price=float(item.get("price", item.get("f17", 0))), - change_pct=float(item.get("change_pct", item.get("f3", 0))), - volume=float(item.get("volume", item.get("f5", 0))), - amount=float(item.get("amount", item.get("f6", 0))), - high=float(item.get("high", item.get("f15", 0))), - low=float(item.get("low", item.get("f16", 0))), - open=float(item.get("open", item.get("f16", 0))), - prev_close=float(item.get("prev_close", item.get("f18", 0))), + price=float(item.get("price", item.get("f2", 0)) or 0), + change_pct=float(item.get("change_pct", item.get("f3", 0)) or 0), + volume=volume, + amount=float(item.get("amount", item.get("f6", 0)) or 0), + high=float(item.get("high", item.get("f15", 0)) or 0), + low=float(item.get("low", item.get("f16", 0)) or 0), + open=float(item.get("open", item.get("f17", 0)) or 0), + prev_close=float(item.get("prev_close", item.get("f18", 0)) or 0), + source=self._source, ) quotes.append(q) @@ -325,6 +386,7 @@ def _parse_message(self, data: dict) -> list[RealtimeQuote]: ask_prices=[float(fields[i] or 0) for i in [21, 23, 25, 27, 29]], bid_volumes=[float(fields[i] or 0) for i in [10, 12, 14, 16, 18]], ask_volumes=[float(fields[i] or 0) for i in [20, 22, 24, 26, 28]], + source=self._source, ) if q.prev_close > 0: q.change_amt = q.price - q.prev_close @@ -404,6 +466,7 @@ def is_connected(self) -> bool: def stats(self) -> dict: return { "source": "simulated", + "simulated": True, "connected": self.is_connected, "subscribed": len(self._codes), "cached_quotes": len(self._quotes), @@ -437,6 +500,8 @@ def _generate_quotes(self): ask_prices=[round(price + i * 0.01, 2) for i in range(1, 6)], bid_volumes=[round(self._rng.random() * 10000) for _ in range(5)], ask_volumes=[round(self._rng.random() * 10000) for _ in range(5)], + source="simulated", + simulated=True, ) with self._lock: diff --git a/data/quality.py b/data/quality.py index 5de82bf..46be6f7 100644 --- a/data/quality.py +++ b/data/quality.py @@ -20,6 +20,57 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +# Columns that hold a price level. Volume, turnover and adj_factor are numeric +# but are not prices: their jumps are normal and must not be read as price +# anomalies. +PRICE_FIELDS = ("open", "high", "low", "close", "vwap") + + +def _price_panel(frame: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Normalise provider input into a date-indexed, per-asset wide frame. + + The monitor was written for a date x asset wide frame, but + ``/api/data/quality`` without a ``run_id`` feeds it the raw provider panel + with a ``(date, asset)`` MultiIndex and OHLCV field columns. Running + ``pct_change`` down that frame compares one stock's close with the next + stock's close (and with the next day), fabricating tens of thousands of + "anomalies"; ``index[-1]`` is a ``(date, asset)`` tuple, so freshness never + failed. + + A MultiIndex panel is therefore unstacked to date x (field, asset) columns: + each column is a single asset's (or asset/field's) time series, and all + pandas time-series operations (pct_change, diff, ffill) stay within it. + Only price fields are kept when the panel carries them. + """ + if not isinstance(frame.index, pd.MultiIndex): + return frame + + if frame.columns.nlevels > 1: + # Already unstacked (e.g. (field, asset) columns); nothing to do. + return frame + + if "asset" in frame.index.names: + asset_level: str | int = "asset" + elif frame.index.nlevels == 2: + asset_level = frame.index.nlevels - 1 + else: + return frame + + price_cols = [c for c in PRICE_FIELDS if c in frame.columns] + if price_cols: + values = frame[price_cols] + else: + values = frame.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]) + if values.shape[1] == 0: + return frame + + try: + return values.unstack(asset_level) + except ValueError: + # Duplicate (date, asset) labels cannot be unstacked; leave the input + # as-is rather than turning a quality report into a crash. + return frame + class DataQualityCheck: """A single data quality check result.""" @@ -63,8 +114,13 @@ def __init__( self.checks: list[DataQualityCheck] = [] def check_prices(self, prices: pd.DataFrame) -> list[DataQualityCheck]: - """Run all price data quality checks.""" + """Run all price data quality checks. + + Accepts either a date x asset wide frame or a raw ``(date, asset)`` + provider panel (see ``_price_panel``). + """ self.checks = [] + prices = _price_panel(prices) self._check_missing_data(prices) self._check_nan_rate(prices) @@ -76,7 +132,11 @@ def check_prices(self, prices: pd.DataFrame) -> list[DataQualityCheck]: return self.checks def check_returns(self, returns: pd.DataFrame) -> list[DataQualityCheck]: - """Run return data quality checks.""" + """Run return data quality checks. + + Accepts the same two layouts as ``check_prices``. + """ + returns = _price_panel(returns) self._check_extreme_returns(returns) self._check_return_distribution(returns) return self.checks @@ -96,8 +156,13 @@ def _check_missing_data(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): details={"missing_pct": missing_pct, "missing_cells": int(missing_cells)}, )) - # Per-stock missing rates - stock_missing = prices.isna().mean() + # Per-stock missing rates. A MultiIndex (field, asset) frame is + # averaged over its price fields so the details still name stocks. + missing = prices.isna() + if isinstance(prices.columns, pd.MultiIndex): + stock_missing = missing.T.groupby(level=1).mean().mean(axis=1) + else: + stock_missing = missing.mean() bad_stocks = stock_missing[stock_missing > self.max_missing_pct * 2] if len(bad_stocks) > 0: self.checks.append(DataQualityCheck( @@ -123,11 +188,21 @@ def _check_nan_rate(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): )) def _check_price_anomalies(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): - """Check for anomalous price movements.""" - pct_changes = prices.pct_change().abs() + """Check for anomalous price movements. + + Only price *levels* are differenced. Volume, turnover and adj_factor + are not prices -- their jumps are normal -- and a raw (date, asset) + panel must first be turned into per-asset columns, otherwise the + percentage change compares one stock with the next. + """ + # Zero is a missing quote, not an infinite return: pandas 3 raises on + # the division instead of returning inf. Only numeric columns are + # price series (the panel also carries boolean mask columns). + numeric = prices.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]) + pct_changes = numeric.mask(numeric == 0).pct_change(fill_method=None).abs() anomalies = pct_changes > self.max_daily_move - n_anomalies = anomalies.sum().sum() + n_anomalies = int(anomalies.sum().sum()) passed = n_anomalies == 0 if n_anomalies > 0: @@ -138,7 +213,10 @@ def _check_price_anomalies(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): passed=passed, severity="error" if n_anomalies > 10 else "warn", message=f"{n_anomalies} price movements exceed {self.max_daily_move:.0%}", - details={"worst_stocks": worst.head(5).to_dict()}, + details={ + "n_anomalies": n_anomalies, + "worst_stocks": worst.head(5).to_dict(), + }, )) else: self.checks.append(DataQualityCheck( @@ -146,13 +224,25 @@ def _check_price_anomalies(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): passed=True, severity="info", message="No anomalous price movements detected", + details={"n_anomalies": 0}, )) def _check_stale_prices(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): - """Check for stale (flat) prices indicating data issues.""" + """Check for stale (flat) prices indicating data issues. + + When the frame carries several price fields, staleness is judged on + close only: a flat close is the signal, while repeated opens/highs are + not. + """ + frame = prices + if isinstance(prices.columns, pd.MultiIndex): + fields = prices.columns.get_level_values(0) + if "close" in fields: + frame = prices["close"] + stale_counts = {} - for col in prices.columns: - series = prices[col].dropna() + for col in frame.columns: + series = frame[col].dropna() if len(series) < 2: continue # Count consecutive equal values @@ -178,7 +268,13 @@ def _check_stale_prices(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): )) def _check_data_freshness(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): - """Check if data is fresh (last date is recent).""" + """Check if data is fresh (last date is recent). + + A ``(date, asset)`` MultiIndex makes ``index[-1]`` a tuple, which has + no ``.date()``; the old code then reported ``days_old = 0`` and the + check could never fail. The date level's maximum is the real last + observation. + """ if len(prices) == 0: self.checks.append(DataQualityCheck( name="freshness", passed=False, severity="critical", @@ -186,11 +282,17 @@ def _check_data_freshness(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): )) return - last_date = prices.index[-1] - if hasattr(last_date, 'date'): - days_old = (pd.Timestamp.now().date() - last_date.date()).days + if isinstance(prices.index, pd.MultiIndex): + last_date = prices.index.get_level_values(0).max() else: - days_old = 0 + last_date = prices.index[-1] + + try: + last_ts = pd.Timestamp(last_date).normalize() + days_old = (pd.Timestamp.now().normalize() - last_ts).days + except (TypeError, ValueError): + last_ts = None + days_old = 10**6 # An unparseable date is certainly not fresh passed = days_old <= 3 # Allow 3 days for weekends/holidays self.checks.append(DataQualityCheck( @@ -203,7 +305,8 @@ def _check_data_freshness(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): def _check_price_monotonicity(self, prices: pd.DataFrame): """Check that prices are non-negative.""" - negative = (prices < 0).sum().sum() + numeric = prices.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]) + negative = int((numeric < 0).sum().sum()) passed = negative == 0 self.checks.append(DataQualityCheck( name="price_monotonicity", diff --git a/data/schema.py b/data/schema.py index 77c4c06..4d0796a 100644 --- a/data/schema.py +++ b/data/schema.py @@ -2,30 +2,61 @@ Defines expected column names, dtypes, and validation helpers for the data pipeline to ensure data integrity at each stage. + +Contract (enforced at the provider boundary by :meth:`DataPipeline.run`): + +* Prices -- MultiIndex ``(date, asset)``, levels named ``date``/``asset``, + sorted, with at least :data:`REQUIRED_PRICE_COLUMNS`. ``vwap``/``amount`` + are optional because not every provider ships them. ``volume`` is in + shares and ``turnover`` is a fraction (see the provider wave's contract); + the pipeline does not convert units. +* Financials -- MultiIndex ``(date, asset)`` keyed to the first trading day + on/after ``publish_date``, with :data:`FINANCIAL_COLUMNS`. An entirely + empty frame is legal (a provider may have no fundamentals); the pipeline + normalises it to the documented empty panel. ``publish_date`` is expected + from conforming providers but is not required here because the PIT + accessor has a documented failure mode for providers that cannot supply it. +* Metadata -- indexed by ``asset`` with :data:`REQUIRED_METADATA_COLUMNS`. + ``is_st`` may be absent or empty when the provider has no ST history; it + is deliberately not required and the pipeline warns instead of assuming + ``False``. + +Violations raise :class:`DataContractError` naming the provider, the dataset +and the offending index level/column, so a provider bug fails at the +boundary with an actionable message instead of a downstream ``KeyError``. """ from __future__ import annotations import pandas as pd -# Expected columns in price data +# Columns every price provider must supply. `vwap` and `amount` are +# optional: Baostock/Postgres do not ship vwap, and neither synthetic nor +# several real feeds ship amount. Consumers already treat them as optional +# (`_derive_suspensions` checks column presence; nothing indexes `amount`). PRICE_COLUMNS = [ "open", "high", "low", "close", "volume", - "turnover", "adj_factor", "vwap", + "turnover", "adj_factor", ] +OPTIONAL_PRICE_COLUMNS = ["vwap", "amount", "pct_chg"] -# Expected columns in financial data +# The column set consumed by the factor layer (`factors/fundamental.py`); +# a provider missing any of these silently kills a factor, so it is a hard +# contract violation. Ratio names follow the repo convention +# (`pb_ratio`/`pe_ratio`) rather than the provider-native `pb`/`pe`. FINANCIAL_COLUMNS = [ "market_cap", "total_assets", "net_assets", "revenue", "net_profit", "roe", "pb_ratio", "pe_ratio", "asset_growth", ] -# Expected columns in metadata +# Columns the pipeline itself reads. `is_st` may be absent/None when the +# provider cannot supply ST history -- absence must not be read as "not ST". METADATA_COLUMNS = [ "sector", "market_cap_group", "is_st", "listing_date", "delisting_date", ] +REQUIRED_METADATA_COLUMNS = ["sector", "listing_date", "delisting_date"] # A-share industry sectors (for synthetic data) SECTORS = [ @@ -53,19 +84,144 @@ } -def validate_prices(df: pd.DataFrame) -> None: - """Validate price DataFrame has required columns and index.""" +class DataQualityError(ValueError): + """A provider output violates a documented data contract.""" + + +class DataContractError(DataQualityError): + """Structural contract violation (index levels, columns, dtypes).""" + + +def provider_label(provider) -> str: + """Human-readable provider name for contract error messages.""" + if provider is None: + return "provider" + cls_name = type(provider).__name__ + name = getattr(provider, "provider_name", None) or getattr(provider, "name", None) + if name and str(name) != cls_name: + return f"{cls_name}({name})" + return cls_name + + +def _require_multi_index(df: pd.DataFrame, kind: str, label: str) -> None: if not isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex): - raise ValueError("Price data must have MultiIndex (date, asset)") - missing = set(PRICE_COLUMNS) - set(df.columns) + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: {kind} data must have a MultiIndex (date, asset); " + f"got a {type(df.index).__name__} index" + ) + names = list(df.index.names) + if names != ["date", "asset"]: + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: {kind} index levels must be named ['date', 'asset']; " + f"got {names!r}" + ) + if len(df.index): + date_level = df.index.get_level_values("date") + if not pd.api.types.is_datetime64_any_dtype(date_level): + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: {kind} 'date' index level must be datetime64; " + f"got dtype {date_level.dtype}" + ) + + +def validate_prices(df: pd.DataFrame | None, provider=None) -> None: + """Validate a provider price frame against the shared contract. + + Raises: + DataContractError: naming the provider and the violated + index/column, so a provider bug cannot surface later as an + unrelated ``KeyError``/``ValueError`` inside the pipeline. + """ + label = provider_label(provider) + if df is None: + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: get_prices() returned None; expected a DataFrame with " + "MultiIndex (date, asset)" + ) + if not isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame): + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: get_prices() returned {type(df).__name__}; expected " + "a pandas DataFrame" + ) + + _require_multi_index(df, "price", label) + + missing = [c for c in PRICE_COLUMNS if c not in df.columns] if missing: - raise ValueError(f"Missing price columns: {missing}") + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: price data is missing required column(s) {missing}; " + f"required {PRICE_COLUMNS}, optional {OPTIONAL_PRICE_COLUMNS}" + ) + # Only the date level must be sorted: the pipeline unstacks by asset and + # reindexes columns, so asset order within a date is irrelevant, but + # `pct_change`/rolling consumers walk the date order. + dates = df.index.get_level_values("date") + if not dates.is_monotonic_increasing: + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: price data 'date' index level is not sorted " + "(non-decreasing); return data sorted by date (df.sort_index() " + "sorts both levels and is always safe)" + ) -def validate_financials(df: pd.DataFrame) -> None: - """Validate financial DataFrame has required columns and index.""" - if not isinstance(df.index, pd.MultiIndex): - raise ValueError("Financial data must have MultiIndex (date, asset)") - missing = set(FINANCIAL_COLUMNS) - set(df.columns) + +def validate_financials(df: pd.DataFrame | None, provider=None) -> None: + """Validate a provider financial frame against the shared contract. + + An empty frame (including ``None``) is accepted: a provider may + legitimately have no fundamentals, and ``DataPipeline._align`` gives the + empty frame the documented ``(date, asset)`` MultiIndex. + """ + label = provider_label(provider) + if df is None: + return + if not isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame): + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: get_financials() returned {type(df).__name__}; " + "expected a pandas DataFrame" + ) + if df.empty: + return + + _require_multi_index(df, "financial", label) + + missing = [c for c in FINANCIAL_COLUMNS if c not in df.columns] + if missing: + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: financial data is missing required column(s) {missing}; " + f"required {FINANCIAL_COLUMNS}. Fundamental factors and " + "market-cap neutralisation read these columns directly." + ) + + +def validate_metadata(df: pd.DataFrame | None, provider=None) -> None: + """Validate a provider metadata frame against the shared contract. + + ``is_st`` is intentionally optional: providers that cannot supply ST + history omit it (or leave it empty), and the pipeline must not read that + absence as "not ST". + """ + label = provider_label(provider) + if df is None or not isinstance(df, pd.DataFrame): + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: get_metadata() returned " + f"{type(df).__name__}; expected a DataFrame indexed by asset" + ) + if df.empty: + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: metadata is empty; cannot build a point-in-time " + "universe without listing/delisting information" + ) + if df.index.name != "asset": + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: metadata index must be named 'asset'; " + f"got index name {df.index.name!r}" + ) + + missing = [c for c in REQUIRED_METADATA_COLUMNS if c not in df.columns] if missing: - raise ValueError(f"Missing financial columns: {missing}") + raise DataContractError( + f"{label}: metadata is missing required column(s) {missing}; " + f"required {REQUIRED_METADATA_COLUMNS} " + "(is_st is optional when the provider has no ST history)" + ) diff --git a/docker-compose.yml b/docker-compose.yml index 9a90358..22104bd 100644 --- a/docker-compose.yml +++ b/docker-compose.yml @@ -7,12 +7,34 @@ services: - "8000:8000" environment: - TUSHARE_TOKEN=${TUSHARE_TOKEN:-} - - OPENAI_API_KEY=${OPENAI_API_KEY:-} - - LOG_LEVEL=INFO + # The LLM analyzers call DeepSeek through the OpenAI-compatible SDK; + # OPENAI_API_KEY here did nothing because the code reads DEEPSEEK_API_KEY. + - DEEPSEEK_API_KEY=${DEEPSEEK_API_KEY:-} + # Required: without a token every /api route is loopback-only, and a + # published container port is not loopback. Set this in .env. + - QUANT_API_TOKEN=${QUANT_API_TOKEN:?Set QUANT_API_TOKEN in .env before exposing port 8000} + # QMT trading password is env-first (execution.qmt.password is a + # development fallback only). + - QMT_PASSWORD=${QMT_PASSWORD:-} + # Log level is read at process start (restart-only semantics). + - LOG_LEVEL=${LOG_LEVEL:-INFO} + - TZ=Asia/Shanghai volumes: + # Trading book + audit trail + EOD markers + NAV + engine state. + # /app/data also contains provider caches written under data/cache. + - quant-state:/app/data + # quant-data keeps its historical name: it already holds results/ on + # existing deployments. - quant-data:/app/results - quant-cache:/app/.quant_cache + - quant-versions:/app/.quant_versions + - quant-baostock-cache:/app/.cache + - quant-agent-cache:/app/.agent_cache + - quant-sentiment-cache:/app/.sentiment_cache restart: unless-stopped + # Give the process time to stop the scheduler/engine, persist engine + # state and checkpoint SQLite WAL before SIGKILL (graceful-shutdown wave). + stop_grace_period: 30s healthcheck: # python:3.12-slim has no curl/wget — probe over the stdlib instead. test: ["CMD", "python", "-c", "import sys,urllib.request; sys.exit(0 if urllib.request.urlopen('http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/health', timeout=5).status == 200 else 1)"] @@ -22,5 +44,10 @@ services: start_period: 40s volumes: + quant-state: quant-data: quant-cache: + quant-versions: + quant-baostock-cache: + quant-agent-cache: + quant-sentiment-cache: diff --git a/docs/ABSORPTION_NOTES.md b/docs/ABSORPTION_NOTES.md index a156fe3..d060590 100644 --- a/docs/ABSORPTION_NOTES.md +++ b/docs/ABSORPTION_NOTES.md @@ -1,5 +1,11 @@ # 外部项目吸收笔记 +> **STATUS: HISTORICAL RECORD (2026-07). See #78.** +> "Merged" is not "used": the audit confirmed the screener/config/KF/lookahead +> items have real entry points, but the framework contracts listed here have +> zero consumers. Treat this table as a record of what was absorbed, not as a +> claim that the platform depends on it. + ## 概述 本文记录了从外部开源项目吸收的设计理念和具体实现。 diff --git a/docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md b/docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md index 302a0ee..5811a7f 100644 --- a/docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md +++ b/docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md @@ -1,5 +1,10 @@ # MiQi / quant_platform Architecture v2 +> **STATUS: PROPOSAL — not implemented. See #73.** +> Only `main.py factor ` is currently true; `live/` and `prod/` do not +> exist. The enforced boundary is `tests/test_architecture/test_core_boundaries.py`, +> not import-linter. The ten-claim audit is in `docs/HANDOVER.md` §四. + > 这是本仓库的架构决策页，不是讨论日志。后续所有 PR、重构、拆分都以这一页为判断标准。 ## 1. Vision @@ -34,7 +39,7 @@ Data -> Research -> Portfolio -> Backtest -> Execution -> Risk -> Monitoring - `live/`（交易平台）：依赖 `core/` 的公开接口，不反向依赖。 - `lab/`（研究笔记）：只依赖 `core/`。 - AI 是横切能力：允许调用各 Capability，但不允许被 Capability 反向耦合。 -- 跨层依赖由 import-linter 强制，违反即 CI 红。 +- 跨层依赖由 `tests/test_architecture/test_core_boundaries.py` 强制（CI 通过 `pytest tests/` 运行），不是 import-linter。 ## 4. Runtime @@ -48,6 +53,9 @@ Data -> Research -> Portfolio -> Backtest -> Execution -> Risk -> Monitoring 当前阶段：**一个仓库，三层边界，先不物理拆分**。 +> **现实（2026-10）**：`live/` 和 `prod/` 不存在；仓库的 `core/` 是 EventBus/Store/StateMachine， +> 不是下面所说的“研究内核”；`data/` 是纳入 git 的源代码，不是运行时数据。下面是目标布局，不是现状。 + ```text quant_platform/ ├── core/ 研究内核（未来可拆成 quant-core） @@ -71,11 +79,11 @@ quant_platform/ 5. core 包化：live/lab 改为依赖安装版 core 6. 全部绿后，再物理拆成 quant-core / quant-lab / quant-live -## 原则（ADR 摘要） +## 原则（设计意图；ADR 目录不存在，见 #73） - Principle 1：Truth First。数据调整方式、PIT 状态、偏差必须机器可读记录。 - Principle 2：Point-in-time。任何回测数据必须声明可用日期，禁止静默用未来数据。 - Principle 3：Knowledge compounds。研究运行、参数、评估全部进 Registry，可跨 run 查询。 - Principle 4：Protocol over Implementation。接口先锁，实现可换。 -- ADR-0003：Single Live Runner。OMS、风控、实盘引擎各只有一条主实现。 -- ADR-0004：Protocol Before Plugin。新实现必须实现已有协议，不新增平行接口。 +- ADR-0003：Single Live Runner。OMS、风控、实盘引擎各只有一条主实现。**（当前不成立，见 #73/#74）** +- ADR-0004：Protocol Before Plugin。新实现必须实现已有协议，不新增平行接口。**（当前不成立，见 #73/#74）** diff --git a/docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md b/docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0aceefd --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +# Dead-code and contract status (2026-10) + +Issue #77 (and #70) found seven packages with zero runtime importers. +Deleting them is a product decision, not a bug fix, so this file records the +decision for each — "is this wired?" should be answerable without re-running +an AST scan. + +| Package | Runtime importers | Decision | +|---|---|---| +| `framework/contracts/` | 0 (self + tests) | **PROPOSAL** — six Protocols, zero conforming production implementations. | +| `services/` | 0 (self only) | **PROPOSAL** — standalone microservice skeletons; `app.py`/`main.py` never start them. | +| `kernel/` | 0 (self only) | **PROPOSAL** — `kernel/kernel.py` is unwired; `daemon/runner.py` uses `LiveEngine` directly. | +| `shared/` | 0 | **COMPATIBILITY SHIM** — re-exports `quant_core.*`. | +| `regime_router/` | 0 (validation scripts only) | **RESEARCH ONLY**. | +| `compliance/` | tests only | **TESTS ONLY** — wire into the API or delete deliberately. | +| `research/` | tests only | **TESTS ONLY**. | + +Each package's `__init__.py` now starts with a machine-greppable `STATUS:` +line, enforced by `tests/test_architecture/test_dead_code_status.py`. + +Deletion is deliberately deferred: these modules have tests and are cited by +historical documents, so removing them should be its own change with an +explicit **wire / delete** decision. Do not treat any of them as production +functionality in the meantime. diff --git a/docs/HANDOVER.md b/docs/HANDOVER.md index bd4dc8f..17b1119 100644 --- a/docs/HANDOVER.md +++ b/docs/HANDOVER.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -# 交接说明（2026-09-23） +# 交接说明（2026-09-23，更新至 2026-10-21 第十一轮） > 这份文档写给接手这个仓库的人。它记录**当前状态、改过什么、还剩什么、以及那些代码里看不出来的坑**。 > 未完成的工作全部开在 [Issues](https://github.com/sijie-Z/quant_platform/issues) 上，编号在下面对应。 @@ -161,13 +161,13 @@ --- -## 七、环境上的坑（代码里看不出来的） +## 七、环境上的坑（历史开发机备注） -- **必须用 `.venv312`**（Python 3.12 + 完整依赖）。仓库里还有一个 `.venv`，那是 Python 3.14 + 残缺依赖，用它跑出来的失败全是环境问题，不是代码问题。 -- **pytest 必须加 `--basetemp=/d/tmp_pytest_probe`** —— `pytest-of-admin` 那个临时目录的 ACL 是坏的，不加会有一百多个莫名其妙的 `tmp_path` 错误。 -- **ruff 用 `.venv` 里那个**（0.15.12，和 CI 的 pin 一致）。 +- 按 README 创建 `.venv`（Python 3.11/3.12；CI 与 Docker 使用 3.12）。`.venv312` / `.venv` 是旧开发机的本地目录，不在仓库里，不要当作仓库指令。 +- **pytest 如需自定义 `--basetemp`**：这台开发机曾出现 `pytest-of-admin` 临时目录 ACL 损坏；在正常机器上不需要这个 workaround。 +- **ruff 版本以 CI 的 pin 为准**（0.15.12）。 - **CI 跑 `ruff check .`（整仓库）**，只查自己改的文件会漏掉 import 块规则 —— 已经因此挂过一次 CI。 -- **代理**：`HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7899`。`gh`/git 走它；它偶尔会断，断了直连 GitHub 有时也能通。 +- **代理**：这台历史开发机上曾是 `HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:7899`；仅作环境备注。 - **这台机器在内存压力下会崩解释器**（WMI 服务 + pandas access violation，以及 `bash: fork: Resource temporarily unavailable`），同时跑多个 agent 的测试套时特别明显。 - **所有 agent 提交的 git 作者都是 `Builder`** —— 从 `git log` 分不出哪次是哪个 agent 做的。 @@ -214,6 +214,236 @@ | 有测试守护的性质（第八节那三套） | 有 Registry 行但 `validity` 未标注的结论 | 任何 2026-09 修复**之前**产生的回测性能数字 | | 真实数据 + 纯 IC 测量（无交易） | 合成数据上的因子研究（#58） | `docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md` 里的方针陈述（#73） | | `MARKET_STRUCTURE_DISCOVERY_V3_REPORT.md`（80d IC −0.081, t=−4.58） | 2026-07 之前的所有 `docs/research/` 报告 | `PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md` 的风控数字（#78） | -| 该次提交的 git 历史 | | `CLAUDE.md` 的计数（实测 1631 测试 / 101 端点 / 20 命令，文档写的是 1077 / 97 / 18） | +| 该次提交的 git 历史 | | `CLAUDE.md` 的计数（2026-10-20 已按 2,662 用例 / 99 HTTP + 1 WS / 21 命令校正；仍以实测为准） | 完整的研究产物分档在 #72。 + +--- + +## 十一、2026-10-19 修复记录 + +这一轮处理的是交接时仍列在 Issues 上、且能用测试表达的问题。每项都有回归测试守护： + +| Issue | 修复 | 位置 | +|---|---|---| +| #58 | 合成数据停牌前向填充不再伪造反转信号：provider 标记 `is_suspended`，收益与因子价格在填充边界置 NaN，涨跌停标记跳过复牌跳空 | `data/providers/synthetic.py`、`data/pipeline.py`、`main.py` | +| #59 | MVO 回退等权不再静默：记录回退次数/原因并写入 summary 与 API；等权不再把权重放大到 `max_weight` 之上；换手按索引并集计算并真正钳制（首次建仓豁免）；RiskParity 同样受换手约束 | `portfolio/optimizers.py`、`backtest/engine.py`、`api/schemas.py` | +| #71 | Registry validity 机制启用：`list_runs(validity=...)`、`is_trusted()`、JSON 导入/导出、`runs import/export` CLI；43 条历史记录可导入并标记 | `lab/registry/__init__.py`、`main.py` | +| #3/#4 | 实盘状态持久化：Store 新增 `engine_state` 表；`LiveEngine` 快照/恢复 + 已处理日期水位；daemon 每次运行恢复并落盘，日盈亏不再硬编码 0，损坏快照拒绝覆盖 | `packages/quant_core/src/quant_core/store.py`、`trading/live_engine.py`、`daemon/runner.py` | +| #60 | 历史产物作废标注：`ABLATION_001` 顶部加 SUPERSEDED 说明，`results/backtest_report.html` 加可见 VOID 横幅，新增 `results/README.md` 说明整目录不可引用 | `docs/research/`、`results/` | +| #61 | 纸面交易快照播种不再自成交：L2 快照档位以 passive 挂单进入订单簿，锁价/交叉快照保留原始深度；后续真实订单仍可成交 | `execution/paper_broker.py` | +| #67/#68/#73/#78 | 文档状态标注：`framework/__init__.py` 去掉不存在的 CONSTITUTION/ARCHITECTURE/import-linter 引用与 `registry`/`trust` 导出；4 份架构文档加 STATUS 横幅，修正 import-linter 表述、风险阈值与 README 中的错误路径 | `framework/__init__.py`、`docs/*.md`、`README.md` | +| #62 | IC 监控滚动计算从 O(n·window) 改为“每日 IC 只算一次 + 滚动平均”；测试耗时 233s → 7s，Spearman 调用 14,931 → 237 | `factors/ic_monitor.py` | +| #69 | 双导入身份：`pyproject.toml` 改为把仓库根目录安装为 `quant_platform`（不再把 46 个子目录装成顶层包）；移除 flat 别名 sys.path 与导入；CI/Docker 去掉 PYTHONPATH 垫片；新增 `tests/test_architecture/test_import_identity.py` 守卫 | `pyproject.toml`、`.github/workflows/ci.yml`、`Dockerfile`、`tests/conftest.py` 及多处导入 | +| #74 | 订单模型收敛：broker 层 `Order` 更名为 `BrokerOrder`（保留 `Order` 别名），三组枚举统一到 `execution.models`，新增与 OMS 模型的双向转换 `to_execution_order()` / `from_execution_order()`；broker 特有字段保留在 DTO 层 | `trading/broker.py` | +| #70/#77 | 未接线模块标注：7 个零运行时导入的目录在 `__init__.py` 加 `STATUS:` 横幅，新增 `docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md` 与守卫测试；删除/接入留作显式决策 | `framework/contracts/`、`services/`、`kernel/`、`shared/`、`regime_router/`、`compliance/`、`research/` | + +另外修掉了三处 pandas 3.x 兼容问题（`resample("M")`、`rolling(axis=1)`、零价格 `pct_change`），它们在本机全局 pandas 3.0.6 下会让 17 个测试失败；在仓库锁定的 2.1.3 下同样成立。 + +验证：全量测试 **1678 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**（3m58s；#62 修复前同一套件 6m53s），ruff 全绿。 + +### 2026-10-19 第二轮加固（审计驱动） + +在上述 issue 之外，对回测、实盘、风控、API、性能做了一轮多 agent 审计并修复： + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 回测正确性 | 权重随价格漂移（此前隐含每日再平衡）；基准按日截面等权（消除全样本筛选的未来数据）；Sortino 改用下行偏差；最大回撤从初始资金起算；协方差保留有停牌的资产（≥50% 覆盖）；RiskParity 改为凸对数障碍模型；容量模型冲击成本乘以股数、改为次日收盘执行并让权重漂移；并行 sweep 修复签名不匹配；执行后钳制权重回写 `weights_history` | +| 实盘/OMS | 周期锁阻止并发双下单；T+1 日切换释放（引擎/runner）；SimulatedBroker 未成交余量撤单、市价单参考价、行情更新重播做市盘口；OMS 成交前校验现金/可卖；报价 NaN/陈旧防护；QMT 注册 `on_stock_order`/`on_stock_trade` 并把成交正确回填，ACK 不再降级 SUBMITTED；连接失败阻断引擎启动 | +| 数据 | 复权修正：合成数据把公司行为应用到原始价格；Baostock 改用后复权（adjustflag=1）；Tushare 合并并应用 `adj_factor`；基本面接口修正 f116/f117 的市值映射（此前把市值当成净利率/营收增速） | +| 风控 | 卖出降风险不再被仓位/日亏/回撤/熔断阻断；扇区检查计入本次订单；引擎用当日盈亏而非累计盈亏；安全模块盈利不再触发日亏熔断；Greeks 新增持仓即计算、对冲数量修正；压力情景改为累计冲击 + 多路径中位数/最差 | +| API | 无 token 时交易/OMS 端点仅限回环；WebSocket 校验 token；修复 `data/quality`、`ml/predict`、run result 的 500；订单类型字段兼容；重端点移出事件循环；Monte Carlo 参数边界；WS 进度广播 | +| 性能 | 中性化 5.67s→0.15s/因子；breakout 因子 8.6s→0.09s；Barra fit 9.2s→0.24s；SQLite 写入 12ms→0.13ms；订单簿成交后清理 | +| #3 | LiveEngine 到期仓位按收盘价卖出并计成本，不再直接从权益中消失 | + +验证：全量测试 **1732 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**（1m57s），ruff 全绿。 + +### 2026-10-19 第三轮审计（alpha / 报告 / 运营 / 前端） + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| Alpha/因子 | 组合层改为逐资产 NaN 感知加权（一个因子缺一格不再清空该资产；默认因子集不再产出空信号）；水平类因子用前向填充价格计算（停牌不再让 momentum_12m 覆盖率归零）；PE/PB 非正分母剔除（亏损股/负净资产不再排成"最便宜"）；numba 动量窗口与 pandas 对齐（此前滞后一天）；numba Rank IC 平均并列名次（离散因子 IC 不再依赖列序）；正交化按共同资产对齐（NaN 模式不同也能正交）；RSI 无亏损窗口返回 100；NetworkFactor 正确初始化基类；纯波动 beta 统一 ddof | +| 运营/报告 | NAV 管理费累计计提并逐日扣减（不再永久高估净值）；业绩报酬只在创新高时收一次、HWM 用费前净值；跨周末/节假日日收益不再归零；投资者年化按实际经过时间；归因换手用并集（完整换仓不再报 0）；HTML 月度热图按 `{years,data}` 结构渲染；matplotlib 月份标签/空月/无限 Sharpe 修复 | +| 前端/契约 | 订单簿与持仓正确解包响应 envelope；实盘风控面板字段对齐（kill_switch/recent_breaches/limits）；市价成交使用真实报价（后端拒绝无价成交，删除 `Math.random()` 价格）；数据质量不再用无关合成数据冒充某次运行；前端 bundle 过期时启动告警；监控端点显式返回 `available/reason`；行情缓存改为共享实例；OMS 快照与 PaperBroker 记录有上限 | +| 数据 | Baostock 后复权 + Tushare adj_factor 应用 + 合成数据公司行为落到原始价格；基本面 f116/f117 市值映射修正 | + +验证：全量测试 **1753 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**（3m08s），ruff 全绿。 + +### 2026-10-19 第四轮审计（门禁 / 配置 / 多策略 / 前端） + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 策略门禁 | 默认 `minimum_icir=0.0` 让 `abs(icir) >= 0` 对所有因子恒真，门禁永远不可能失败却仍报告"通过 ICIR 门禁"；默认改为 0.2，阈值 0 显式报告为"已禁用"。覆盖率门禁的调用方把 `n_assets_total` 和 `n_assets_with_data` 传成同一个数（自比较恒 PASS）；改为从价格面板实测覆盖率，宇宙未知时 SKIPPED 而不是伪造通过。删除从未被任何检查读取的配置字段；新增交易成本门禁，使用回测 summary 新增的 `annual_turnover` / `annual_cost_drag`（引擎按执行日累计成本） | +| 配置接线 | `portfolio.risk_aversion`、`portfolio.covariance.ewma_half_life`、`risk.var.confidence` / `horizon` 此前只存在于 schema/YAML，没有任何调用方读取；现在分别接线到约束、协方差估计和报告 | +| 多策略 | orchestrator 此前用**共享持仓簿**与每个策略的目标比较：两个策略各目标 100 股时，一笔成交让双方都以为已持有，下一次调仓双方各卖 100 股来回震荡。新增按 `order.strategy` 记账的逐策略持仓台账，调仓只看自己的持仓；逐策略 P&L 由自有份额的已实现+盯市计算，不再把整本账的盈亏记到每个策略头上 | +| API/前端 | `/api/demo` 的回撤与月度收益改为小数，与 `/api/run` 及前端 `×100` 的约定一致；Monte Carlo 返回下采样后的 `terminal_values`（分布图此前永远空白）；MonitorDashboard 消费后端的 `available/reason` 并显示不可用原因，同时复用 ECharts 实例——此前每 15 秒轮询都会重新 `echarts.init` 同一节点，一个打开的页面每轮泄漏 8 个图表实例 | +| 合规导出 | 带时区偏移的成交/委托时间与本地朴素日期窗口比较会抛 `TypeError`，被旧的 `except` 当作"无法解析"静默丢弃；现在先转换为本地时间再比较 | + +验证：全量测试 **1767 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**（3m21s），ruff 全绿。 + +### 2026-10-19 第五轮审计（数据源 / 研究统计 / 运营 / 实盘风控） + +这一轮由四个并行审计 agent 覆盖此前未深挖的模块，修复均带回归测试。 + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 组合优化 | MVO 只尝试 `[ECOS, SCS]`，而 cvxpy 1.7 的轮子里没有 ECOS；同时换手上限在信号轮换超过预算时本身不可行。默认配置 **60 次调仓中 54 次静默回退等权**。改为只尝试已安装的求解器（CLARABEL 优先），并把既有持仓保留在候选集里，使换手约束可行——同一回测现在 **0 次回退**，`effective_optimizer=mean_variance` | +| 基本面 | 实时接口失败时回退合成数据却没有任何标记，`stats` 仍报告 `eastmoney`；`hash(code)` 每个进程加盐，同一只股票的 PE/PB 每次重启都变。现在 `source`/`is_synthetic` 随响应返回、种子改用 `crc32`、EastMoney 改读正确的 f162/f167（含 /100 缩放）；筛选器把 0 当作"未知"而不是真实值（`pe_max=20` 不再通过所有股票） | +| 行情/盘口 | 行情缓存过期后仍以"现在的 `datetime.now()`"作为响应时间；WebSocket 解析把 f17（开盘）当最新价、f16（最低）当开盘，成交量未统一为股；Level 2 全部为模拟数据却无任何标记，空 tick 时 VWAP 返回 `0.0`、流向返回 `50`。现在快照与报价携带真实抓取时间与 `stale`、WebSocket 字段映射与单位修正、所有 L2/WS 响应带 `simulated/source`，空数据返回 404 | +| PostgreSQL | `get_prices` 只 pivot 第一个字段且多字段时列名重复（违反 `(date, asset)` MultiIndex 契约）；连接失败被构造函数吞掉，`main.py` 记录"Using PostgreSQL provider"后第一次调用崩溃。现在按契约返回 MultiIndex，构造失败抛 `ConnectionError` 触发真正的合成数据回退 | +| 连接池 | 去重缓存键忽略 `kwargs` 与数据源，60 秒内把 close 请求的结果返回给 volume 请求；provider 返回 `None` 同时记成功与失败；缓存对象被调用方原地修改。键现在包含 kwargs，`None` 记为失败，缓存进出都做拷贝 | +| NAV/运营 | 业绩报酬只在当天扣减、此前已计提的费用第二天又加回净值（每次结晶后出现一次假反弹）；管理费按工作日计数却除以 252（一年实际收 2.08%）；同一日期重算会再次计提。现在净值始终扣除累计费用负债、按日历天/365 计提、同日重算从该日之前的持久状态重新开始 | +| 投资者/报告 | 年化收益用"全生命周期收益 ÷ 3 年窗口"，回撤只看窗口内；净值图回撤从首个收益日而不是初始 1.0 起算；月度热图把无数据月份画成 0.0%，HTML 热图按数组下标当月（3 月数据画在 1 月）。均已修正 | +| 合规导出 | `get_trades/get_orders` 先取最新 10 万行再按日期过滤，历史区间可能导出空文件；P&L 固定只看 5 年。范围过滤已下推到 SQL | +| 研究统计 | Deflated Sharpe 把年化 SR 与单位方差次序统计量、逐期标准误混用（真实年化 SR=2.0、1260 天、N=10 被算成 p=0.59）；ROE 研究把财报"报告期结束日"当作"公告日"，最多提前 4 个月使用（现已按法定披露截止日映射并更新 trust metadata）；ML 的 IC 用整面板 pooled correlation（只有市场择时的预测也能拿 0.7）、ICIR 是 2-5 个 fold 均值的离散度；LightGBM 模型只写了 JSON 元数据、加载后 `predict` 重新引入样本内信号；walk-forward 的测试窗互相重叠且 embargo 在 expanding 模式下无效。均已修正 | +| Registry/门禁 | `is_trusted` 只看 validity，`begin_run` 默认 `status=failed, validity=valid`，失败/未完成的 run 也算可信；验证报告的 `overall` 只看步骤是否崩溃，门禁 FAIL/REJECTED 与跳过的 walk-forward 仍报 `pass` 并退出 0。现在可信要求 `status=success`，overall 由门禁与必需步骤共同决定 | +| IC 监控 | ICIR 与"IC 为正比例"在 63 日移动平均序列上计算（真实 0.19 被报成 1.34、56% 报成 92%）；现在离散度统计使用原始逐日 IC，平滑序列只用于展示与趋势 | +| 实盘/API | `POST /api/risk/kill-switch` 不在无 token 时的回环白名单内（docker-compose 默认无 token 且端口公开），远程可解除熔断；`GET /api/risk/status` 会用 OMS 账本覆盖实盘风控状态（下一次引擎周期看到 90% 回撤并触发熔断）；回撤/日亏只在有订单时检查；扇区检查对新股票一律 "Unknown" 且同批订单不累计；熔断后引擎直接跳过周期、从不执行其声称的"flatten"；盘前持仓同步检查从不比较任何东西；6 个交易端点用 `async def` 执行阻塞 RPC。均已修正：`/api/risk` 纳入敏感前缀、GET 不再改状态、组合更新即评估权益熔断、扇区映射与在途订单投影、熔断时卖出可用份额、持仓同步真实比较并在收盘后清理幽灵持仓、阻塞端点改同步、风险概览返回 `available/reason` 而不是 200 + GREEN | +| 其他 | 分位数收益的 Q1 方向与文档相反（`qcut` 的 0 是最低组）；`factor_stability_history` 从未写入导致因子排名永远为空，且保存的 `pearson_ic/coverage` 恒为 0；SHAP 永远返回 "no data"；`max_total_positions` / `max_gross_exposure` / `max_net_exposure` / `max_orders_per_second` 声明但从未检查；orchestrator 接收了 `risk_monitor` 却从不喂组合状态。均已修复，先卖后买的执行顺序保证同一批调仓的卖出释放敞口 | + +验证：全量测试 **1813 passed / 4 skipped / 0 failed**（3m10s），ruff 全绿。 + +### 2026-10-20 第六轮审计（核心架构 / 回测内核 / 执行撮合 / 前端契约） + +四个只读审计 agent + 五个并行执行 agent（每个执行包都跑了内部对抗评审）覆盖上一轮未深挖的模块。 + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 核心架构 | 调度器用宿主机本地时间判断 A 股时段（官方容器是 UTC：真实盘中判为 closed、17:30 判为 trading_am）；改为 Asia/Shanghai，并新增 2024–2026 交易所休市表（含法定节假日，可用 `QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS` 追加），容器设置 `TZ`。EventBus 消费者按 handler 名字注册，同名 handler / 退订后重订会丢事件并最终把队列塞满；改为按订阅计数身份注册、退订时取消任务。两套事件总线的通配符语义不一致（`market.*` 在旧总线匹配 `market_data.tick`，`order.**` 在新总线从不匹配）；统一为一个段感知匹配器。审计日志不传租户，订单/成交/信号全落到 default，且平仓会删除所有租户的同名持仓；现在显式携带租户，signals/events 增加 tenant_id 列并迁移。`save_order` 的 INSERT OR REPLACE 会把未提供的列清空；改为按键 UPSERT，同一订单多次成交获得唯一 trade_id 并在同一事务写入。EOD 对账无幂等标记，重启后同日重复写快照；新增 `eod_reconciliation` 表。`Instrument.from_dict` 给期货/期权套用了股票默认（印花税 0.1%、t_plus=1）；按资产类型取默认 | +| 回测内核 | 固定版本的 numba 不支持 `returns.mean(axis=0)`，Ledoit-Wolf 内核从未编译成功：异常被引擎吞掉后 MVO 用单位阵、RiskParity 每个调仓回退等权，而 summary 仍写配置的风险模型。重写为正确的常相关 Ledoit-Wolf 公式（与 sklearn 误差 <1e-3），并让协方差失败记录 `n_covariance_failures` 而不是静默。容量模型只把成本扣在内部 sizing 资金上、报告仍旧是毛收益，且参与率超限只记一个冲击数、从不缩减交易，所有 AUM 档位收益完全相同；现在真实缩减交易、成本/冲击从报告收益扣除，指标改用与主回测相同的 Sharpe/MDD 定义。冲击成本路径把已含佣金/印花税的 total_cost 再加一遍、且按股的冲击与货币金额直接相加；改为只返回冲击并统一折算为收益率。印花税对买入也收 0.05%、清仓只收一半；引擎改为按资产拆分买卖名义额。并行 sweep 的 Sharpe/MDD 与主回测口径不同，且文档示例的 `optimizer`/`n_stocks` 平铺键被 setattr 成死属性（每格配置相同）；改为复用 metrics 并校验/映射参数键。Black-Litterman 用年化风险厌恶配日协方差，先验日均约 5.7%；统一为单位后年化超额约 6% | +| 数据/因子 | 长停牌会把资产从**整个样本**删除（2024 年停牌导致 2021–2023 也没有它；晚上市 40 天也被删）；改为只删从未有价格的资产，长缺口保留 NaN。合成数据的晚上市股票首日 `close` 由 NaN 前值乘出，之后永远 NaN，30 日 ffill 还制造上市前价格；修正上市日种子并遮蔽上市前。`BaseFactor.run` 的全面板 ffill 把 ST/上市遮蔽重新填上，ST 股票重新进入每个截面；现在只对停牌缺口 ffill 并按 PIT ST 掩码回填 NaN，成交量/换手也在 ST 日置空。合成财报按原始公告日 reindex 到交易日，周末/节假日发布的报告被静默丢弃（20 份只剩 14–16）；映射到下一个交易日。中性化用静态行业 map，PIT 行业变更（143 条记录）从未生效；新增 `get_sector_panel()` 并在因子处理中按日期使用（默认数据 522×120 面板约 1.1s）。市值因子被回归到自身，处理后只剩 1.3% 方差；跳过自身市值中性化。PCA/对称正交化用全样本估计（未来函数）且 PCA 对特征向量求平均；改为截至 t 的扩张窗口与确定性符号。数据质量检查把 `(date, asset)` MultiIndex 当宽表，跨股票算 pct_change（4 万条假异常）、新鲜度永远 0 天；入口统一 unstack 并只用价格列做异常检测 | +| 实盘执行 | QMT 状态映射用了另一套 API 的 0/1/2/…/50，真实 xtquant 的 48–57 全部落到 PENDING（56 已成交也会被陈旧回调降级）；改用真实枚举并保护终态。QMT 忽略 `order_stock` 的 -1 与 `cancel_order_stock` 的非 0 返回，失败被报告成功。OMS 成交接受负数量（买 -100 股反而增加现金、生成负持仓）；在任何账务变更前拒绝。成交后不更新 `current_price/market_value`，刚买入的组合快照出现等于全部买入额的假亏损；立即 mark-to-market，未定价持仓按成本估值。PaperBroker 在订单簿已撮合后改写 `filled_quantity`，导致后续成交超量 28%；改为入簿前缩减。ExecutionEngine 接受超量成交、并向已撤销订单追加成交记录；append 前校验状态与剩余量。模拟交易所用 NaN/0 行情成交、可成交限价按限价而不是更优价成交；已修正。TCA 的 dataframe 入口用全样本均值与最后一行收盘价作基准（未来函数），文档列布局下基准为 0；要求执行日期并只取当日数据 | +| Alpha/工具 | 情感因子缓存键不含 asset/analyzer/model，不同股票共享分数、API 失败的关键词回退被永久缓存、非原子写会清空全部缓存；改为完整键、失败不落盘、原子替换。组合层缺失因子在分子分母同时剔除，缺主因子的资产反而排名更高；改为缺失填 0、分母固定。Prometheus 指标从未被调用（Grafana 全空），导出无锁；新增 HTTP 中间件并在 app 接入。缓存键不含 provider/回退/代码版本，`--use-baostock` 会命中合成缓存；新增 schema/键版本与 provider/override 入参，回退数据不写请求 provider 的键。`config.data.provider` 被默认 `use_tushare=True` 覆盖（有 token 时合成/postgres 配置失效）；改为配置决定、CLI 显式覆盖。因子 `params` 与 `factors.processing` 在解析时被丢弃（改 YAML 无任何效果），空 section 还会重新启用默认因子集；已接线并让固定周期因子接受覆盖 | +| 打包/前端 | 非 editable 的 `pip install .` 产出的 wheel 只有 4 个顶层 .py，所有子包缺失、配置 YAML 也不在包里；显式列出 33 个子包并声明 package-data，新增清单守卫测试。WebSocket 在无 token 时对远程开放（携带订单/风控事件）；纳入回环限制。数据质量面板对每次已完成 run 都 422（run 记录不存价格面板）；改为 run 时计算并随结果保存。OMS blotter 只显示已完成订单，挂单/部分成交永远不出现；改为返回全部订单与剩余量。LivePortfolio 把 200+`{"error"}` 当成功、WS 重连无法停止、因子排名用绝对 ICIR 重复计数、参数热图显示 “NaN”、风控标签键名不匹配；均已修正。`QUANT_API_TOKEN` 模式补充前端构建期 token 支持，docker-compose 的 `OPENAI_API_KEY` 改为代码真正读取的 `DEEPSEEK_API_KEY` | + +验证：全量测试 **1983 passed / 4 skipped / 0 failed**（2m55s），ruff 全绿。 + +已知仍未处理：多租户隔离（#75 产品定位未定）；`framework/contracts/`、`kernel/` 等零导入目录的去留（#70/#77）仍是显式决策项。 + +### 2026-10-20 第七轮（研究脚本与文档真实性） + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 研究脚本 | `run_factor.py` / `tools/common_runner.py` 的 12 个月动量用 `.shift(-21)`，把未来 21 天收益嵌进因子（与 IC 的目标窗口完全重叠）；改为 `.shift(21)` 并加静态守卫测试。`run_factor.py` 回测在调仓日把当日已实现收益记到新权重上（一日前视）；改为次日生效，基准与策略同持有期对齐。`tools/run_xv_synthetic_vs_real.py` 把收益 DataFrame 当 benchmark Series 传给 `all_metrics`，每行 regime Sharpe 被静默记为 0；改传 benchmark Series 并记录异常 | +| 真实数据股票池 | Baostock 的“500 只蓝筹”实际是排序截断后的 101 只深市主板（000001–000500）。改为优先 `query_stock_basic` 跨板分层抽样，失败时回退 60/68/00/30 交错候选池；缓存键加入完整代码列表哈希。历史 real-A-share 结论的样本范围需按新股票池重跑 | +| 统计口径 | `run_market_structure_v3.py` 的重叠前向窗口用 `sqrt(n)` 计算 t 值；改为 Newey-West HAC（lag=ceil(H/21)）并保留 naive 列，规模分组从全样本均价改为当日价格横截面三分组（明确标注 price proxy）。`run_rq1_cluster_attribution.py` 原来对每日横截面均值求相关（测的是覆盖率噪声）；改为逐日资产交集上的横截面相关。`run_rq3_stability.py` 的 regime 标签被 ffill 到下月、`%Time` 用日历天（占比合计 70.2%）；改为当月标签与交易日分母 | +| 文档 | README 快速开始补上 `quant_core` 与项目 editable 安装（否则 import 直接失败）。CLAUDE.md/AGENTS.md 校正：EventBus 只覆盖运行时核心、实盘为 7 因子、默认启用 21/注册 27、管理费 /365、LLM 是 DeepSeek、CI 是 3.11/3.12 + ruff/mypy、Store 11 张表、端点/视图/组件计数、涨跌停与整手在回测层的真实限制，并据此下调相关 A 评级。默认 alpha 方法改为 equal_weight，合成数据 embedded_alpha 标注为演示用途 | + +验证：全量测试 **2019 passed / 4 skipped / 0 failed**（2m55s），ruff 全绿。 + +历史 `results/*.csv` 中的 RQ5/RQ6/RQ7 与 run_factor 报告需要用修正后的脚本在真实数据上重跑后才能引用；docstring/注释已注明口径。 + +### 2026-10-20 第八轮（并发一致性 / 测试有效性 / CLI 与端点契约） + +这一轮以“实测”为主：并发一致性压测、变异检验（mutation testing）、CLI 全命令冒烟、当时 98 HTTP + 1 WS 端点全扫。所有修复带回归测试。 + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 并发 | `OrderManager.fill_order` 无锁：两笔 60 股成交同时通过 100 股订单的校验，最终成交 120 股且现金为负；加 `RLock` 并把校验/记账放进同一临界区。`RiskMonitor` 在持续违约时每次检查都追加同一条 breach（800 条重复且无上限）；只记录新签名，上限 1000/保留 500。`PipelineCache` 直接写目标文件，Windows 上并发读者会读到半写 pickle 或 `PermissionError`；改为临时文件 + fsync + `os.replace`，读取失败清理不抛异常 | +| 测试有效性 | 变异审计（8 个变异，7 killed）发现默认 Ledoit-Wolf 协方差被换成单位阵仍全绿；新增非单位阵/量纲/PSD/numba+sklearn 双路径断言。补强 NAV 费用负债精确等式、OMS 每次成交现金校验与部分成交、MVO/RP 换手上限、成本与印花税精确值、中性化行业残差、门禁状态。7 个空转测试改为真实读回/契约断言（PostgreSQL fallback 写后读回、WS 无客户端、run consumer 输出），删除 skip 占位 | +| IC 评估 | 硬编码“每个截面至少 30 个有效资产”使 30 股票池 21/21 因子 IC 全 NaN（n_obs 0–3），门禁误报“弱 ICIR”；改为 `min(30, max(10, panel_width // 2))` 并接入 numba 与 pandas 两条路径，宽度不足时输出明确 warning；全部因子无观测时门禁 SKIPPED 并说明观测不足。30 股票池现在 19/21 因子可评估（N=133–250），门禁 FAIL 是真实的弱 ICIR | +| ML | 260 天样本下 `ml train` / `ml signal` 曾以退出码 0 输出零样本与空信号；现在短历史自适应首个训练折（≥30 日期、≥60 样本、≥2 特征），样本不足抛 `InsufficientTrainingData`，CLI 退出 1、API 返回 422；全 NaN 特征显式丢弃，训练失败不落模型与 sidecar | +| CLI | `check-lookahead` 已注册但 dispatch 缺失（只打印 help 并退出 1）；接入并新增“所有注册命令均有 dispatch”的静态守卫。`run` 从不生成 HTML 与 metrics.json，`research report` 因无生产者而死路；现在 `run` 写出自包含 HTML 与 metrics.json，`research report` 可回退读取 daily_returns.csv。`walkforward --folds` 只打印不生效；校验器新增 `n_folds` 并截断。`screen` 把 z-score 当 PE 阈值；CLI 与 API 均改用原始因子面板，未知因子返回 422。前视检测器在 Windows GBK 控制台因 ⚠/✓ 字符崩溃，输出改为 ASCII；排名对 1e-14 求和噪声敏感导致同一日期信号随面板长度变化（检测器把自己的因果信号判为有偏），排名前统一 `round(12)` | +| API | 端点全扫（当时 98 HTTP + 1 WS）确认 12 条缺陷。P0：已完成 run 因 `exposure.top_holdings.pnl_pct` 与不可评估因子统计为 NaN，`GET /result`、`/factors` 返回 500；pnl 只在两个价格都有限时计算、跳过不可评估因子，并在入库前用 `json.dumps(allow_nan=False)` 守卫。Barra 横截面回归未剔除停牌 NaN 收益，1236/1236 个因子收益全 NaN、协方差 100/100 NaN，两个端点每次 500；过滤非有限行并对协方差 `nan_to_num`。再分配资金不重置 `current_value`，1 亿 +1% 被算成 -99%；重置基线并拒绝未知策略。`trading/stop` 后 `run-once` / `order` 仍执行，检查 `_running`。OMS 与 smart-route 接受空 ticker，改 422。parallel sweep 非法参数 500→422；regime 数据不足 200+error→409；`portfolio/live` 回退最近 7 天并返回 `data_date/stale`；`data/quality` 标注 `source/synthetic/data_date_range`；QMT 不可用与缺 akshare 返回 503 | +| 日志/文档 | `get_logger(__name__)` 双重前缀（`quant_platform.quant_platform.*`）修正；HANDOVER 补充本轮记录 | + +验证：全量测试 **2074 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**（3m20s），ruff 全绿。CLI 实测：30 股票 `run` 得到 19/21 因子有限 IC（N=133–250）、HTML+metrics 落盘；`check-lookahead` 报告 0 偏差并退出 0；`ml train` 训练 3434 样本、`ml signal` 非空；`walkforward --folds 1` 实际执行 1 折。 + +### 2026-10-20 第九轮（实盘生命周期 / PIT 数据 / 策略-OMS 集成 / 前端契约 / API 安全） + +第二轮实测审计：5 个只读 agent 分别覆盖实盘交易、PIT 数据、策略与 OMS 集成、前端契约、API 安全；随后 3 个执行 agent 修复后端缺陷，主线程修复 API/前端契约。全部修复带回归测试。 + +| 领域 | 修复 | +|---|---| +| 实盘交易 | SimulatedBroker 的 check-then-act 无锁：并发卖出双倍入账、并发首次买入互相覆盖，现金/持仓不再原子；加 `RLock` 覆盖下单/账户/盯市/T+1/恢复。部分成交此前不落库、不审计、不计数；现在写 order(partial)+trade+审计并按实际成交量计数。券商成交后审计写失败会永久丢单；改为先原子写 order+trade（确定性 trade_id 防重），审计失败只记日志。重启时恢复/对账 store 持仓与现金（paper broker 重建，QMT/XTP 不覆盖），kill switch/峰值/日基线/交易日/现金/持仓写入 `engine_state` 并恢复；持久化 kill 在显式解除前阻断下单。空持仓查询视为“未知”而非“空仓”，不再重复买入或清空 store。T+1 与日 P&L 基线改用 Asia/Shanghai 交易所日历（不再被宿主午夜/周末解锁），`_trading_day` 持久化。LiveRunner 持久化 signal/order/trade，单日券商异常不再中止全程，`finally` 关闭 session；双轨 PaperBroker 用主券商成交价播种流动性。逐 symbol 行情时间戳，过期报价不用于下单/盯市。`stop()` 等待在途周期、`start()` 拒绝复活旧线程；默认风控后端改为共享 `RiskMonitor` | +| PIT 数据 | 统一 `tradable_mask`（ST + 上市/退市 + 停牌），同时作用于价格因子、财务因子、volume/turnover、`fin_unstacked`、信号与 `get_financials_as_of`；ST/停牌/退市/上市前不再获得因子值、信号或权重。退市按 `delisting_date` 与价格终止双路径识别。停牌改为从缺失/零成交量/整行 ffill 推导，不依赖可选 `is_suspended` 列；复牌首日收益保留。合成数据日期、基准与财报公告映射改用交易所日历（节假日不再成为交易日，节假日公告映射到下一交易日），`DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION` 4→5。停牌日除权因子冻结，估值标记不再跳变。短样本合成数据不再因 `rng.integers(low>=high)` 崩溃 | +| 策略/OMS | `PortfolioOrchestrator` 接入真实现金台账、T+1 可用量、成本基础与已实现盈亏；`rebalance()` 对未成交订单做净额投影，重复调用不再重复下单，反向下单会撤单并释放资金锁；`(1+signal)` 目标被压缩到策略资金预算内，买入前校验合并现金，成交时引擎硬拒绝透支。全局先卖后买（创建与成交两阶段）。风控收到 `cash+盯市市值` 的真实权益并在日期推进时重建日基线。策略移除会撤单、按 T+1 可卖量清仓或转移、释放资金并清理台账；未知策略 id 拒绝。资金分配改为绝对比例（省略项归零、和≤1、拒绝负数/未知 id），再分配时重置 P&L 与风险统计，零资金期不记录收益；聚合指标排除 inactive 并改用市值加权组合收益序列。lot_size 真正生效，零数量订单跳过；手续费/印花税进入引擎现金与成本 | +| 前端契约 | `exposure_report` 返回 `sector_exposure`（扇区面板此前永远为空）。因子散点/归因改用资产级前向收益面板（此前传入组合收益 Series，异常被吞，两个面板永远为空），并去掉第二次 `shift(-1)`。WalkForward 在 `available:false` 时显示原因而非 0 folds；MonitorDashboard 统一风险等级大小写并从后端播种 kill switch/实时限额；WS 完成不再与轮询重复应用、取消后不再拉取结果，失败 run 会广播；DataQuality/MonteCarlo/RiskDecomposition 正确识别错误/不可用；Compare/Sweep 用并集列，首行失败不再隐藏后续成功结果；LivePortfolio 显示 `data_date/stale`，OrderBlotter 拒绝用非当日收盘价成交；Regime 相关性标记不可用、推荐语映射修正；RiskMonitor 圆点/日亏条、超额峰度阈值、压力情景名、命令面板、Vite WS 代理、QMT 服务地址字段、Settings 明确为浏览器本地偏好 | +| API 安全/资源 | 无 token 时**所有** `/api`（除 health）仅回环可访问，有 token 时全部鉴权；`/docs`、`/openapi.json` 纳入保护；CORS 预检不再被鉴权中间件拦截；默认监听改为 127.0.0.1（容器显式 0.0.0.0 + 必须设置 token）。`/api/screen` 的 config 路径限制在服务端 `config/` 内（路径穿越/配置注入）。OMS `limit_price`、策略 allocation/daily_return、`risk/check-order` 拒绝 NaN/Inf，校验错误响应统一清洗非有限值。运行窗口 ≤10 年且 start1000 行）；WS 子协议 token | +| 运维 wave 1 | `trade` 真实成功/失败语义、QMT fail closed、真实行情校验、交易所日历驱动；docker-compose 持久化卷 + `stop_grace_period` + `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 必填；Grafana 面板只绑定真实指标；真实数据源不可用默认 fail closed 并把 requested/effective provider 写入 `metrics.json`；缓存/日志/配置版本有上限与清理；配置加载校验；配置版本原子写 + 密钥脱敏；每 run 独立输出目录；daemon watermark；监控脚本非零退出；Prometheus 格式 | +| 运维 wave 2 | 调度器只在收盘后跑 EOD、不再使用硬编码 100 万权益、启动补齐遗漏交易日；`AlertSink`（日志常开 + `ALERT_WEBHOOK_URL`，5 分钟去重）；`GET /api/readiness` dead-man switch；`main.py data retention`（CSV 归档 → 删除 → checkpoint/VACUUM，`QUANT_RETENTION_*_DAYS`）；优雅停机；风控状态持久化；新写入的 P&L/会话/事件时间戳统一为 Asia/Shanghai naive（旧行不迁移） | +| 数据 | Tushare 批次/复权失败 fail closed、不写部分缓存；Baostock 财报面板、失败不缓存、退市名单、显式 `st_available=False`；Tushare 历史成分 + 退市名单；Postgres 契约；单位统一（volume 股、turnover 分数、amount CNY）；Adata 契约；连接池键与空帧语义；pipeline 合约校验、重复行、`adj_factor`、空财务、PIT 掩码、板块限价、退市推断；合成数据停牌/上市/公告日 | +| 回测 | 执行日可交易性门禁（`tradable_mask` / `limit_up` / `limit_down`，按执行日而非信号日）；ISO 周年分组；Walk-Forward 接受完整引擎配置、OOS 指标只取测试窗；成本模型（最低佣金、过户费、按资产名义额、日期化印花税）；市值加权基准；per-instrument 费率；成交量/波动率进入冲击模型；tick 引擎成交记账/T+1；回撤日期映射；年化口径；首月现金 warm-up；`weights_history` 只记录已执行调仓 | +| 组合/风险数学 | RiskParity 改为凸对数障碍；Barra Ledoit-Wolf 强度；MVO 单位/风险项/目标波动；因子风险 Euler 分解；Monte Carlo 路径统计；bootstrap/Student-t 修正；归因 t 统计；投资者 Sharpe 统一口径；VaR 随机种子；long-only 校验；缺失收益协方差；Barra Newey-West；多重检验修正 | +| 测试有效性 | 变异审计 **11/11 KILLED**；新增精确公式、边界、账本、门禁测试；z-score numba 与 pandas 的 ddof 对齐 | +| 文档（本轮） | README / AGENTS / CLAUDE / HANDOVER / VALIDATION_REPORT / PRODUCTION_PLAYBOOK / OPS_RUNBOOK / ASHARE_PITFALLS / BEGINNER_GUIDE / NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT 按当前代码校正：QMT fail closed、可运行 CLI、Docker/PostgreSQL 事实、7 个 `available:false` 端点、PIT 真实状态、后复权 hfq（原文档误写前复权 qfq）、测试/端点/命令/组件计数、备份恢复与升级迁移、`metrics.json` provenance；VALIDATION_REPORT 标注 SUPERSEDED | + +**当前计数（2026-10-20 交接实测）**：`python main.py --help` 列出 **21 个命令** +（新增 `data retention`）；`create_app` 暴露 **99 个 HTTP 端点 + 1 个 WebSocket**； +pytest 收集 **2,662 条用例**（2,659 passed / 3 skipped；基线提交 40a5bcf 为 2567 passed / 3 skipped）；测试文件 193 个； +Vue 组件 37 个。计数会随代码变化，以 `main.py --help`、`pytest --collect-only -q` +和 `create_app().routes` 为准。 + +**已知仍未处理（诚实清单，交接时）**： + +1. **多租户隔离**（#75）：产品定位未定，API 不提供租户隔离；`core/context.py` 的 + TenantContext 不是端到端隔离。 +2. **分析/监控端点已接线**：`/api/walkforward`、`/api/risk/decompose`、 + `/api/analysis/ic-decay`、`/api/analysis/correlation`、`/api/monitor/tca-summary`、 + `/api/monitor/factor-status`、`/api/monitor/capacity-gauge` 现在从有界 TTL 缓存的 + 研究上下文现算（真实 validator / Barra / IC 衰减 / 相关矩阵 / TCA / 容量）， + 并发饱和返回 429；确实无数据时仍返回 `available:false` 及精确原因。 +3. **WebSocket token**：仅接受 `bearer.` 子协议（时序安全比较）；`?token=` 查询串已移除。 +4. **回测整手限制**：执行层（TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg、paper broker、OMS）强制整手， + 向量化日频回测仍是权重层面（已明确标注，未隐藏）。 +5. **交易所日历**：内置休市表覆盖至 2026 年；2027 年休市日需通过 + `QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS` 追加。 +6. **价格基准**：已统一。provider 交付 raw OHLCV + 复权因子（Tushare `adj_factor=1/native_cum`、 + Baostock raw+hfq 双取），`get_raw_close()` 供成交/估值、`get_adjusted_close()` 供研究， + 货币路径在只有复权价时 fail closed；符号统一为 `CODE.EXCHANGE`（含北交所 30% 限价）。 + 残余：Adata 不提供价格面板（仅跨源校验，价格路径 fail closed）；公司行动已在 paper 引擎实现并接线（见本轮“公司行动”）。 +7. **增量数据**：已实现（D32）。`run --incremental` / `cache refresh --incremental` 只追加新交易日，边界重叠一天并 `keep="last"` 去重；每次更新全量刷新复权因子（除权日不产生假跳变）；数据写成功后才推进完成标记；部分响应不推进并保留旧缓存；`data.max_staleness_days` 对研究告警、对决定性运行 fail closed。边界：合成数据源 `supports_incremental=False`（回退全量）；财务/基准在追加时仍全量刷新；停牌与截断的区分偏保守。 +8. **ST 历史**：Tushare/Baostock 不提供 ST 公告历史（`st_available=False`， + 不伪造全 False 列）；合成数据提供，用于 PIT 验证。 +9. **产品定位**（#75）与 `framework/contracts/`、`kernel/`、`services/` 等零运行时 + 导入目录的去留仍是显式决策项（#70/#77）。 + +> 判据不变：任何"宣称"如果不能用测试或可运行命令表达，它就还不是真的。 +> 本轮文档校正的原则是**删掉无法验证的数字、标注不可用能力、把 roadmap 写成 roadmap**。 + +--- + +### 2026-10-21 第十一轮（缓存 provenance + 价格基准/符号统一） + +基线提交 `8f8caec`。这一轮补上第十轮留下的两块数据层缺口： + +| 波次 | 主要内容 | +|---|---| +| 缓存 provenance（D12/D13/D33-D36） | pipeline 缓存键在 provider 解析之后生成，包含物化配置（含 schema 默认值）、有效 provider 链（Validated + secondary）、实际采样符号集哈希、复权基、日期范围与 `DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION`；Tushare/Baostock provider 缓存带 schema/复权版本清单，不匹配即重取；`--force` 重算并原子覆盖，新增 `cache refresh`；仅真正损坏才删除缓存（瞬时 IO 错误保留）；完整 provenance 清单并入 `metrics.json`，缓存命中不会把 synthetic 伪装成真实 provider；跨进程锁 + 唯一临时文件 + 陈旧临时文件清理，保存失败保留旧条目 | +| 价格基准/符号（D15/D41/D18/D19/D30） | 面板携带 `price_basis` / `adjusted_price_basis` / `adjustment_factor_available`；Tushare 改为 raw + `adj_factor`、Baostock raw(`adjustflag=3`)+hfq 双取、合成数据显式声明；`get_raw_close()` 用于 paper/live 成交与估值，只有复权价时 `DataQualityError`（fail closed）；`get_adjusted_close()` 供研究且与旧 hfq 序列逐点一致；双重复权守卫；`shared/symbols.py` 统一 `CODE.EXCHANGE`（前后缀、`sh.688`、北交所 4/8/920 与 30% 限价），pipeline 资产标签与 QMT/realtime/runner/API 边界统一规范化 | +| 增量数据（D32） | provider 契约新增 `supports_incremental` / `update()` / `data_status()`；Tushare/Baostock 增量追加（完成标记 +1 交易日、重叠一天、`keep="last"` 去重、全量复权因子刷新、符号/行覆盖检查、原子 data→manifest 发布）；部分响应不推进标记并保留旧缓存；`run --incremental` / `cache refresh --incremental`；`data.max_staleness_days` 研究告警、决定性运行 fail closed；freshness 写入 provenance 与 `metrics.json`；合成数据源显式不支持并回退全量 | +| 实盘信号统一 | 新增 `trading/signals.py::composite_signal`（因果 7 因子等权复合 + 横截面百分位 [0,1]）；Web `LiveTradingEngine`、CLI `LiveRunner`、`LiveSignalGenerator` 等权分支共用；删除 CLI 的 4 因子加权与短历史 RNG 兜底；127 日窗口预热，真实券商路径通过 `set_history_provider`（`main.py trade` 已接线 Baostock 日线），同一历史两条路径分数逐点一致 | +| 分析端点接线 | 7 个原本 `available:false` 的分析/监控端点改为从有界 TTL 缓存的研究上下文现算：真实 Walk-Forward（折内 train-only 重算信号、仅取 OOS）、与 `/api/barra/decompose` 共用的 Euler 风险分解、IC 衰减、因子相关矩阵、TCA（成交+订单参考价）、滚动 IC 状态、ADV 容量；并发饱和 429，缺失输入仍给精确原因与所需样本 | +| 前端契约 | LivePortfolio 挂载即加载服务端持仓；完整 en-US 语言包 + `check-i18n` 脚本；Settings 后端 URL 真正驱动 axios/WS；Ctrl+K 单一归属；行业条 100% 轴；不可用/失败 KPI 显示 `—`/N/A+原因；WS 退避+鉴权停止；OMS 行级成交；策略配比全量提交且 >100% 阻断；readiness 指示灯；上海时间解析；NaN/Inf 防护 | +| 研究数字/lab | P1 因子报告最大回撤（复利权益，旧公式显示 -0.00%）、P1 回撤 PNG 缺 `cumprod`；健康分改为带符号 ICIR；报告/比较展示 validity/affected_by；`is_trusted` 要求完整 lineage；零 IC 运行不再 success；run_id 用 uuid；迁移补齐全部列；脚本前视/买卖双边换手/硬编码结束日期/TOP8 重复/失败写成 0/成交量字段等修正 | +| LLM 诚实性 | 请求后端与实际后端一致并可观测；真实 LLM 无新闻时 fail closed（演示路径显式 `is_synthetic`）；调用方新闻入口；缓存 v4 校验/TTL；关键词去重；LLM JSON（数组/包装/围栏）解析与字段校验；输入长度上限 | +| 合规/运营 | 租户过滤（默认取 TenantContext，跨租户需显式）；风险日志 P&L 五列真实计算；CSV/XLSX 公式注入中和；导出审计；NAV 读取失败 fail closed、零净值不落库、回溯日期不继承未来费率；对账缺失腿按价格估值；投资者口径统一 | +| 研究残留 | R11：因子库 writer 以面板实际最后观测日为 `signal_date`，稳定性指标由真实 walk-forward 折计算，无折时写 NULL+`stability_unavailable`（不再伪造 0）；R85/R87 热力图与 RQ3 统一同期月份标签/实现日收益；R86/R74 成本进入日收益序列（净口径名副其实）、终期不可执行调仓一致跳过、`metric_basis` 记录；RQ1-3 输出带 provider/seed/窗口 manifest | +| provider 基准 | Postgres 显式声明 raw+`adj_factor`（可配置 `close_adjustment`，双重复权/非法因子报错）；ValidatedProvider 转发主源基准并保留 `adj_factor`，基准不一致拒绝融合；Adata 价格路径明确不支持 | +| 报告一致性 | R90 总收益口径统一（全历史 headline，公共窗口/覆盖单列）；R91 基准按日期对齐；R92 滚动 Sharpe 用日期轴且 <252 显示空态；R93 <10 样本显示 n/a；R97 VaR/CVaR 标注配置置信度；R89/R96/R98–R105 标签、优化器回退、PNG 月末分桶、空数据横幅、格式化一致、恢复期、归因截距、UTC 时间戳等 | +| 安全修复（P0） | 修复 Host 头鉴权绕过（Starlette BadHost：`Host: x/..` 使 `request.url.path` 变为 `/../api/config`，绕过 token/loopback）：鉴权改用 ASGI `scope["path"]` 并归一化 `root_path`/斜杠/编码，新增最外层 `RequestGuardMiddleware` 校验 Host（可配 `QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS`）、10MB 请求体上限、计算端点每客户端令牌桶 429；token 比较改为 `secrets.compare_digest`；修复 422 序列化 500。新增 31 条 Host 变体/WS/root_path 回归测试（旧代码 200 泄漏，新代码 403/401） | +| CSRF/Origin | 最外层 guard 校验浏览器 `Origin`：必须与请求 Host 同源（scheme/host/port，默认端口归一）或在 `QUANT_ALLOWED_ORIGINS` 中，否则 HTTP 403 / WS 1008；重复或 `null` Origin 拒绝；无 Origin 的 curl/服务间调用不受影响。`/ws-quotes/{start,stop}`、`/l2/{start,stop}` 改为 POST-only（GET 405 且不改变状态），前端封装同步更新 | +| 安全加固（P1/P2） | sweep/parallel-sweep/研究窗口全部有界（组合 ≤200、n_stocks 50–1000、日期 2000–2100/≤10 年、workers≤4）；`/api/core/store/*` 与审计按租户过滤（`X-Tenant-Id`/`tenant_id`，跨租户需 loopback+显式 `all_tenants`），`delete_position` 必须有租户；HTML 报告转义+CSP、保留归档 CSV 公式注入中和、配置版本后缀密钥脱敏、WS 查询 token 移除、指标标签基数有界、QMT 密码禁止请求体、Tushare 客户端强制 HTTPS；`python-multipart`/`lightgbm` 升级到修复版本 | +| 公司行动 | provider 契约 `get_corporate_actions`（送转/派息，规范化/组合事件拆分）、pipeline 访问器、Synthetic/Tushare/Baostock 数据源；paper broker/ExecutionEngine/LiveEngine/LiveRunner/dual-track PaperBroker 按除权日幂等应用（拆股数量/成本、现金分红入账、T+1、持久化 `(asset, ex_date)` 标记），真实券商不本地应用；Web 引擎/CLI trade/daemon 全部接线，报告 `corporate_actions_applied` | +| 安全复核修复 | 单边日期参数先与配置合并再做 10 年跨度检查（`end_date=2100-12-31` 曾展开为 29,218 天），GET 研究端点纳入令牌桶；无 token 的 loopback 旁路增加 Host 必须为 loopback 名称（防 DNS rebinding），配置 `QUANT_ALLOWED_HOSTS` 时拒绝缺失 Host；大请求体在缓冲前先鉴权（>64KB 未认证直接 401/403）；`/api/core/events` 不再泄露其他租户的 `audit.*` 事件；Prometheus `method` 标签白名单（未知→OTHER）；QMT `server` 禁止请求体指定（仅 `QMT_SERVER`）；webhook 失败日志脱敏 URL；配置脱敏覆盖列表值；响应加 nosniff/DENY/referrer 安全头 | +| 验证 | 新增 53 条价格基测试（`test_price_basis*`、`test_symbol_normalization`）；全量 **3,339 passed / 3 skipped / 0 failed**；ruff 全绿；CI 另修两处环境差异（fresh-boot 首条告警被 `monotonic` 节流吞掉、无 pyarrow 时缓存回退 CSV） | + +**当前计数（2026-10-21 实测）**：3,028 个测试函数、3,342 条用例 +（3,339 passed / 3 skipped）、236 个测试文件、约 233 个非测试 Python 文件、 +99 HTTP + 1 WebSocket、21 个 CLI 命令、37 个 Vue 组件。 + +**仍未处理（诚实清单）**：多租户隔离（#75）； +Postgres/Adata 价格基准声明（Postgres 已声明、Adata 价格不支持）； +交易所日历 2027 年需通过 `QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS` 追加。 diff --git a/docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md b/docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md index b1b46af..dac9cb7 100644 --- a/docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md +++ b/docs/KERNEL_ARCHITECTURE.md @@ -1,5 +1,10 @@ # Trading System Runtime Kernel — alpha-v1.0 控制平面 +> **STATUS: PARTIAL PROPOSAL — not wired into the runtime. See #78 / #77.** +> `kernel/kernel.py` exists but has zero runtime importers; `daemon/runner.py` +> still runs `LiveEngine` + `SafetySystem` directly. Sections 2–4 describe the +> intended design, not the current system. + > 把零件装成机器。从 "collection of components" 变成 "autonomous trading organism"。 --- diff --git a/docs/NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT.md b/docs/NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT.md index 853bb42..e262d51 100644 --- a/docs/NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT.md +++ b/docs/NO_LOOKAHEAD_CONTRACT.md @@ -3,12 +3,17 @@ > 这是本平台所有量化研究代码必须遵守的铁律。任何违反此契约的代码都是 bug。 > 回测的高收益只有在零前视偏差的前提下才有意义。 -> ⚠️ **当前有两条未满足**（2026-09-21 复核）：**第八条**（ST 用公告日期）是真实的未来函数， -> 且方向上是抬高回测的；**第七条**（行业用生效日期）未满足，但方向上只是陈旧、不构成未来函数。 -> 两条的现状、证据与修复方向都在各自小节里。 +> **STATUS: CONTRACT — 2026-10-20 复核：8 条规则均已实现并有回归测试守护。** > -> 本次只逐条追踪了第二、第六条（alpha 权重与 IC shift 链条，未发现违反）。 -> 第一、三、四、五条**本次没有重新复核**，不要按"未列出即无问题"理解。 +> 2026-09-21 复核时第七条（行业生效日期）与第八条（ST 公告日期）未满足。 +> 2026-10 的 Round 9/10 修复已将按日期的行业面板、ST 公告日掩码接入因子、 +> 信号与回测执行日；下方各节记录当前实现位置与仍然存在的、由数据源决定的缺口。 + +> ⚠️ **残余缺口（不是未来函数，而是数据/工程限制）**： +> - ST 历史取决于数据源：Tushare/Baostock 只提供当前名称/上市状态，不提供 ST 公告历史 +> （`st_available=False`，不伪造全 False 列）；合成数据提供完整公告时间序列。 +> - 跨数据源价格基准尚未统一（Tushare/Baostock 均为后复权 hfq，调整只应用一次）。 +> - 无增量数据更新路径（每次按区间重取）。 --- @@ -80,8 +85,13 @@ A 股实际情况：季报结束后 1-2 个月才发布。用 fiscal_period_end | 位置 | 实现 | |------|------| -| `data/providers/synthetic.py:467-468` | publish_date = qdate + 40-50 天（模拟 A 股披露延迟） | -| `data/providers/synthetic.py:494-497` | ffill 后保留 publish_date 列 | +| `data/providers/synthetic.py` | 每份财报按 `publish_date` reindex 到首个交易日；周末/节假日公告映射到下一交易日，不提前 | +| `data/providers/tushare_loader.py` | 财务数据按 `ann_date`/`f_ann_date` 映射到首个交易日；缺失公告日则拒绝构造 PIT 面板 | +| `data/providers/baostock_provider.py` | 财报按实际公告日（不可得时按期末 + 明确 warning）映射，panel 带 `publish_date` | +| `data/pipeline.py` | 财务面板以“公告日可得的交易日”为 `date` 索引；`get_financials_as_of()` 提供按 `publish_date <= as_of` 的查询 | + +> `get_financials_as_of()` 目前没有生产调用方；PIT 由上游面板对齐保证——因子只能看到 +> `date` 索引上已经公开的报告。它保留为显式查询 API，避免调用方自行推断。 **不允许的写法**： ```python @@ -105,7 +115,9 @@ mask = financials['publish_date'] <= signal_date | 位置 | 实现 | |------|------| -| `backtest/walkforward.py:47-71` | 每个 fold 内传入 `factors`/`alpha_kwargs` 参数，基于 train 数据重新计算信号 | +| `backtest/walkforward.py` | 每个 fold 内传入 `factors`/`alpha_kwargs`，基于 train 数据重新计算信号；OOS 指标只对 `test_slice` 的收益切片聚合（修复了 BUG-21 的 train+test 窗口） | + +**回归测试**：`tests/test_backtest/` 中断言 OOS 收益索引不包含训练区间、首折可在 train-only 数据上重算。 **允许的写法**： ```python @@ -136,9 +148,9 @@ for train_idx, test_idx in folds: | 位置 | 实现 | |------|------| -| `data/providers/synthetic.py:231-280` | `if self.embedded_alpha:` 条件分支 | -| `data/providers/synthetic.py:13-15` | 文档警告：`Never use embedded_alpha=True to validate strategy performance` | -| `config/default.yaml:16` | `embedded_alpha: true`（默认开，面试友好） | +| `data/providers/synthetic.py` | `if self.embedded_alpha:` 条件分支；强度由 `alpha_strength` 控制（默认 0.03，演示水平） | +| `data/providers/synthetic.py` | 模块 docstring 明确警告 `Never use embedded_alpha=True to validate strategy performance` | +| `config/default.yaml` | `data.synthetic.embedded_alpha: true`（默认开，仅供演示；研究前必须改 false） | --- @@ -160,24 +172,19 @@ for train_idx, test_idx in folds: **规则**：行业分类用 effective_date，不是静态标签。当股票在回测期间发生行业变更时，使用变更生效后的分类。 -**状态**：⚠️ **当前不成立**（2026-09-21 复核）。 - -`neutralize` 接受的是 `sector_map: Series`（asset → sector）并在每个日期上复用同一份映射 -（`factors/processing.py:99`、`:126-129`），而 `main.py` 传进去的是 `metadata["sector"]`—— -provider 的**样本起始分类**。实测（synthetic，120 只，2023-01-01 ~ 2025-12-31，seed 17）： -38 只（32%）在样本内发生行业变更，它们**全部日期的中性化都用的是起始行业**。 - -**方向上不是未来函数**：用变更生效**之前**的分类是**陈旧**，不是偷看未来——它永远不会读到 t -之后的分类。所以这一条既不会抬高回测业绩，也不违反"无未来函数"；它只是让中性化对那 32% 的 -股票在变更后的区间内失效。 +**状态**：✅ **当前成立**（2026-10-20 复核；2026-09-21 时未满足）。 -**已在代码中实现的位置（部分）**： +**实现路径**： | 位置 | 实现 | |------|------| -| `data/providers/synthetic.py:605-641` | 行业分类附带 effective_date，~5%/半年变更率 | -| `data/pipeline.py:188-215` | `get_industry_map(as_of_date)` 按 effective_date 返回当期分类 | -| ⚠️ 缺口 | `get_industry_map` **没有任何生产调用方**（grep 仅命中自身定义与测试）；`neutralize` 也不接受按日期的映射。要真正做到这一条，需要把按日期的行业映射从 provider 一路传到 `process_factor` | +| `data/providers/synthetic.py` | 行业分类附带 `effective_date`，约 5%/半年变更率 | +| `data/pipeline.py` | `get_sector_panel()` 返回 date × asset 的当期行业面板；`get_industry_map(as_of_date)` 保留单日查询 | +| `main.py` | `_load_data` 在启用 sector 中性化时调用 `get_sector_panel()` 并挂到 `metadata.attrs["sector_panel"]` | +| `factors/processing.py` | `neutralize()` 接受 `sector_panel`，按日期取行业哑变量；无面板时回退静态 map | + +**仍存在的限制**：Tushare/Baostock 若拿不到行业变更历史，只能回退到当前分类（陈旧但 +不是未来函数）；该情况会记录在 trust metadata 中。 --- @@ -185,19 +192,23 @@ provider 的**样本起始分类**。实测（synthetic，120 只，2023-01-01 ~ **规则**：ST 标记用 announce_date，不是 trigger_date。交易所发布 ST 公告之前，市场不知道。 -**状态**：⚠️ **当前不成立，且这一条是真实的未来函数**（2026-09-21 复核）。 +**状态**：✅ **当前成立**（因子/信号/执行日门禁；2026-09-21 时是真实的未来函数）。 + +**实现路径**： -`_filter_universe`（`data/pipeline.py:97`）用的是 `metadata["is_st"]`，而 provider 对该字段的定义是 -"这只股票是否**在样本内某时点**变成 ST"（`data/providers/synthetic.py:555`，`trigger_idx` 随机落在 -`[60, len-60]`）。于是样本一开始就排除了约 3% 的股票——而这 3% 恰好是后来出事的股票，属于 -**逆向选择**，方向上会抬高所有基于该股票池的回测。 +| 位置 | 实现 | +|------|------| +| `data/pipeline.py` | `_build_st_eligibility_mask()` 按 `announce_date` → `end_date` 构建 (date × asset) 掩码；`tradable_mask` 合并 ST、上市/退市、停牌 | +| `factors/*`、`alpha/*` | 因子与信号只在 `tradable_mask=True` 的资产日取值；ST 期间无因子值、无信号、无目标权重 | +| `backtest/engine.py` | `run(tradable_mask=..., limit_up=..., limit_down=...)` 在**执行日**检查：ST/停牌/涨跌停阻断成交，未成交目标顺延到下一个可交易日 | +| `main.py` | `pipeline.get_execution_gates()` 挂到 `metadata.attrs`，由 `_run_backtest` 传入引擎 | -`get_st_status(as_of_date)` 按 announce_date 判断，但**没有任何生产调用方**。而且 -`_load_point_in_time_data()` 在 `_filter_universe()` **之后**才执行（`data/pipeline.py:61` 与 `:74`）， -所以即使去调用它，过滤时 `_st_timeseries` 也还是 `None`。 +**回归测试**：`tests/test_data/test_pipeline_pit_st_mask.py` 断言改动 D 之后的 ST 事件不会改变 D +之前的股票池；`tests/test_backtest/` 覆盖 limit-up 买入、停牌买入、limit-down 卖出三种执行日场景。 -**修复方向**（未实施，会改变研究数字）：`valid_assets` 是"整个回测共用一个集合"，无法表达 -"某只股票从某个日期起不可交易"。要做到第八条，需要把它改成按日期的可交易掩码，并让回测消费它。 +**仍存在的限制**：ST **历史**由数据源决定。Tushare/Baostock 只提供当前名称/上市状态 +（`st_available=False`，不伪造全 False 列），因此真实数据上只能退回静态/无 ST 筛选并明确标注； +合成数据提供完整的 ST 公告时间序列，用于验证 PIT 语义。 --- @@ -209,4 +220,4 @@ provider 的**样本起始分类**。实测（synthetic，120 只，2023-01-01 ~ --- -*最后更新：2026-09-21* +*最后更新：2026-10-20（Round 10 复核）* diff --git a/docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md b/docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md index 15023b2..29dea20 100644 --- a/docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md +++ b/docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md @@ -1,57 +1,80 @@ -# Ops Runbook — alpha-v1.0 系统运维手册 +# Ops Runbook — 系统运维手册 > 系统挂了怎么办、数据断了怎么办、调仓失败怎么办。 > 不做优化，只做"活下来"。 +> 入口说明：日常交易与 Web 服务分别用 `python main.py trade` 和 +> `python main.py web`。`trading/live_engine.py` 与 +> `trading/reversal_paper_trader.py` 是库模块（没有 `__main__`），直接 +> `python trading/live_engine.py` 只会导入类，不会启动任何东西。 + --- ## 1. 系统启动 ```bash -# 日常运行 -python trading/live_engine.py +# 实盘/纸面交易（单进程；券商连接失败会直接退出，不会回退模拟盘） +python main.py trade --broker paper --days 30 # Paper Trading +python main.py trade --broker qmt --days 1 # QMT 实盘（需 miniQMT + xtquant；真实券商每次 1 个交易所日） +python main.py trade --broker qmt_live --days 1 # 显式 live 模式 -# 每日监控检查 -python monitoring/run_monitor.py +# Web/API（必须单 worker，见第 11 节） +python main.py web -# Paper trading 回放 -python trading/reversal_paper_trader.py +# 每日监控检查（脚本自带 __main__） +python monitoring/run_monitor.py ``` +QMT 密码优先读环境变量 `QMT_PASSWORD`，账户/服务器/模式见 +`config/default.yaml` 的 `execution.qmt` 段。`--broker qmt` 不再静默等价于模拟盘。 +真实券商只在**交易所交易日**执行（非交易日直接拒绝），每次运行只支持 **1 个交易所日**， +且必须提供真实行情 feed（拒绝合成价格）。 + ## 2. 系统停止 ```bash -# Ctrl+C 正常停止 -# 如果进程卡死: -pkill -f live_engine.py +# Ctrl+C 正常停止；CLI LiveRunner 会结束会话并 checkpoint SQLite WAL； +# Web API 的 LiveTradingEngine 与 daemon 的 LiveEngine 还会落盘/恢复 engine_state +# （CLI LiveRunner 不落盘/不恢复） +# 如果进程卡死（POSIX）: +pkill -f "main.py trade" + +# Docker（QUANT_API_TOKEN 需在 .env 中，否则 compose 插值会报错） +docker compose stop # stop_grace_period: 30s ``` ## 3. 故障处理 | 故障 | 现象 | 处理 | |------|------|------| -| 数据源断开 | log 显示 connection error | 检查网络/切换备用数据源 | -| 调仓失败 | 部分股票未成交 | 手动补单，记录偏差 | +| 数据源断开 | log 显示 connection error / `DataFetchIncomplete` | 检查网络/切换备用数据源；真实源默认 fail closed，不要用 `--allow-synthetic-fallback` 掩盖 | +| 行情快照陈旧 / QMT tick 无有效 `timetag` | log 显示 `Skipping stale market snapshot` 或 `Dropping stale/undated QMT tick` | 本周期不下单；检查实时行情与 miniQMT。旧缓存不会重新标记为新鲜，也不会继续写入信号历史 | +| QMT 下单超时 / `submission outcome UNKNOWN` | 订单保持 PENDING，提示 `reconcile before retry` | **不要手工重复下单**。先查券商委托；系统会用 `strategy_name=quant_platform:<本地订单号>` 在 resync 时找回原委托，找回前该股票不生成新信号 | +| 持仓/账户/订单簿查询失败 | `UNKNOWN` / `BrokerConnectionError` | 跳过 sizing 与新信号；缓存账本只用于展示，不能作为空仓或可用现金依据。EOD 对账应为 unknown，而不是假通过 | +| 调仓失败 | 部分股票未成交 | 回测中未成交目标会顺延到下一个可交易日（`tradable_mask`）；实盘 LiveRunner 每周期重算信号，未成交余量按券商/模拟盘撤单规则处理（SimulatedBroker 会撤销未成交余量），必要时手动补单并记录偏差 | | 净值异常下跌 | 单日跌幅 > 10% | 触发 kill switch，检查行情数据 | -| 系统崩溃 | 进程退出 | 重启，检查 log，确认状态一致 | -| 对账不一致 | 期望持仓 ≠ 实际持仓 | 以实际持仓为准，记录偏差原因 | +| 系统崩溃 | 进程退出 | 重启，检查 log；Web API 的 `LiveTradingEngine` / daemon 的 `LiveEngine` 从 `engine_state` 恢复持仓/现金/Kill Switch；CLI `main.py trade` 每次新建 broker 账本，**不会恢复上一次会话**，必须与券商/Store 实际持仓对账 | +| 对账不一致 | 期望持仓 ≠ 实际持仓 | 以实际持仓为准，记录偏差原因；Web API 的 `LiveTradingEngine.start()` 会运行 HealthCheck（含持仓同步）；daemon 只做 SafetySystem 检查（不对比持仓）；CLI runner 不运行 healthcheck | +| 券商连接失败 | `Broker ... failed to connect`，退出码 1 | 检查 miniQMT/xtquant/账户；系统不会自动转模拟盘 | +| API 401/403 | `Invalid or missing API token` / `loopback-only` | 设置 `QUANT_API_TOKEN` 并在 UI Settings 填入同一 token | ## 4. 重启流程 ``` 1. 检查上次运行 log → 确认最后状态 -2. 检查当前持仓 (与实际券商对账) +2. 检查当前持仓 (与实际券商对账；Web API 的 LiveTradingEngine 或 daemon 的 + LiveEngine 会从 data/trading.db 的 engine_state 恢复，CLI `main.py trade` 不恢复) 3. 检查现金余额 -4. 启动 live_engine -5. 确认系统输出正常 +4. 启动 python main.py web（由 API/daemon 管理引擎）或 python main.py trade（单次会话） +5. 确认系统输出正常；/api/health 返回 200 ``` ## 5. 调仓日操作流程 ``` -1. 开盘前: 确认数据源正常 +1. 开盘前: 确认数据源正常（healthcheck） 2. 盘中: 确认信号计算无异常 -3. 收盘后: 检查成交情况 +3. 收盘后: 检查成交情况（涨跌停/停牌导致的未成交会顺延） 4. 对账: 期望 vs 实际 5. 记录: 调仓日志 ``` @@ -60,7 +83,7 @@ pkill -f live_engine.py | 场景 | 动作 | |------|------| -| 系统失控 | 手动 kill switch → 全部平仓 | +| 系统失控 | 手动 kill switch（`POST /api/risk/kill-switch` 或 Monitor 面板）→ 全部平仓 | | 券商 API 异常 | 暂停交易，转为手动模式 | | 重大市场事件 | 暂停系统，等待市场稳定 | @@ -71,3 +94,191 @@ pkill -f live_engine.py - [ ] 净值未异常下跌 - [ ] 下次调仓日在预期范围内 - [ ] 系统 log 无异常报错 +- [ ] `GET /api/health` 返回 200；`GET /api/readiness` 返回 200（503 时按返回的 checks 排查） +- [ ] 备份任务成功（见第 8 节） + +## 8. 备份与恢复 + +### 需要备份的状态 + +| 路径 | 内容 | 可否重建 | +|------|------|----------| +| `data/trading.db` | 订单/持仓/成交/P&L/信号/会话/事件/配置快照/NAV/引擎状态/EOD 标记（11 张表） | 否 | +| `data/reports/` | 研究 Registry 生成的报告 | 部分 | +| `results/` | 回测输出（HTML/CSV/PNG/metrics.json） | 可重跑，但历史 run 不保证复现 | +| `.quant_versions/` | 配置版本快照 | 否（若未纳入外部版本管理） | +| `config/` | 当前配置 | 否 | +| `.quant_cache/`、`.cache/`、`.agent_cache/`、`.sentiment_cache/` | 缓存 | 可重建，可不备份 | + +### 热备份（服务运行中） + +SQLite 处于 WAL 模式，直接拷贝主文件可能拿到不一致快照。先 checkpoint，再用 +SQLite 的在线备份接口（或短暂停服拷贝）： + +```bash +# 1) 尽量让 WAL 落盘（服务运行中也可执行） +python -c "import sqlite3; c=sqlite3.connect('data/trading.db'); c.execute('PRAGMA wal_checkpoint(TRUNCATE)'); c.close()" + +# 2) 用 sqlite3 .backup 生成一致性副本（先确保目标目录存在；需安装 sqlite3 CLI） +mkdir -p backups +sqlite3 data/trading.db ".backup 'backups/trading-20261020.db'" +``` + +没有 `sqlite3` CLI 时，最稳妥的做法是**停止写入进程**后拷走 +`data/trading.db` 连同 `data/trading.db-wal`、`data/trading.db-shm`。 + +### 完整备份示例 + +```bash +mkdir -p backups/20261020 +sqlite3 data/trading.db ".backup 'backups/20261020/trading.db'" +cp -r .quant_versions config results data/reports backups/20261020/ +``` + +### 恢复 + +```bash +# 1) 停止服务（确保没有进程持有数据库） +# 2) 删除旧的 -wal/-shm，避免与新副本混用 +rm -f data/trading.db-wal data/trading.db-shm +# 3) 拷回备份 +cp backups/20261020/trading.db data/trading.db +cp -r backups/20261020/.quant_versions .quant_versions +# 4) 启动并验证 +python main.py web +curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/health +``` + +建议在每个交易日收盘后（EOD 之后）做一次备份；至少保留最近 5 个交易日与 1 个周备份。 + +## 9. 升级与迁移 + +```bash +# 1) 先备份（第 8 节） +# 2) 更新依赖并重装本地包 +pip install -r requirements.txt +pip install -e ./packages/quant_core +pip install -e . +# 3) 前端产物不随仓库分发，升级后重新构建 +cd frontend && npm ci && npm run build && cd .. +# 4) 启动并验证 +python main.py web +``` + +- **缓存 schema**：`utils/cache.py` 的 `DATA_SCHEMA_VERSION` 当前为 **5**。版本变化时旧缓存条目会被自动淘汰；也可以直接删除 `.quant_cache/`。 +- **数据库 schema**：Store 使用 `CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS` 与增量迁移（例如新增 `tenant_id`、`engine_state`、`eod_reconciliation` 列/表）。升级前必须备份；没有自动降级路径。 +- **配置版本**：`python main.py config list`（另有 `show` / `diff` / `rollback` 子命令）；版本快照在 `.quant_versions/`。 +- **CLI/API 兼容**：升级后先跑 `python main.py --help` 与 `pytest tests/ -q`。 + +## 10. 数据来源与 provenance + +`python main.py run` 会在结果目录写出 `metrics.json`（`schema_version: 1`），其中： + +| 字段 | 含义 | +|------|------| +| `provenance.requested_provider` | 配置请求的数据源 | +| `provenance.effective_provider` | 实际使用的数据源（回退时不同） | +| `provenance.synthetic` | 是否合成数据 | +| `provenance.start_date` / `end_date` | 请求区间 | +| `provenance.data_date` | 数据截止交易日 | +| `provenance.fallback_allowed` | 是否允许显式回退合成数据 | +| `provenance.failures` | 数据源初始化/加载失败列表 | +| `performance` / `risk` / `factors` / `stress_tests` | 回测指标、风险、因子 IC、压力测试 | +| `daily_returns` / `daily_return_dates` | 日收益序列 | + +同样的 provenance 会写入 HTML 报告；控制台也会打印一行 +`Data provenance: requested=... effective=... synthetic=... data_date=...`。 +研究 run 的 validity 用 `python main.py runs list`（另有 `affected` / `mark` 子命令）管理。 + +## 11. 部署约束：单 worker + +运行注册表、pipeline 并发上限、实盘引擎句柄、Kill Switch、OMS 账本和 WebSocket +客户端集合都是**进程内状态**。必须单 uvicorn worker 运行：不要加 `--workers N` +或 `--reload`。多 worker 会导致 run 404、重复下单、Kill Switch 只对一个 worker +生效、WS 事件只推给部分客户端、多个进程写同一个 SQLite。横向扩展需要先把这些 +状态外置到 Redis/数据库（未实现）。详见 README「部署约束：单 worker」。 + +## 12. 告警与数据保留 + +### 告警 + +- 日志 sink 常开；设置 `ALERT_WEBHOOK_URL` 后会额外把告警以 JSON POST 到该地址 + （`ALERT_WEBHOOK_TIMEOUT` 默认 3 秒）。相同告警 5 分钟内去重；投递失败只记日志 + 并增加 `alerts_webhook_failures_total`，不会阻断引擎周期。 +- 告警来源：盘前 healthcheck 失败、调度器 EOD 异常、引擎/数据源严重事件。 +- Prometheus `/api/metrics` + Grafana 16 面板模板（`monitoring/grafana_dashboard.json`）。 +- `monitoring/run_monitor.py` 有告警时非零退出，适合 cron / 任务计划调用。 + +### 健康与就绪探针 + +| 端点 | 用途 | +|------|------| +| `GET /api/health` | liveness；休市不会失败，Docker healthcheck 用它 | +| `GET /api/readiness` | dead-man switch；200 ready / 503 degraded | + +`/api/readiness` 的判断逻辑：引擎预期运行但超过 max(2×rebalance interval, 60 秒) 没有 +cycle、引擎在跑但没有活着的 scheduler（或盘中 scheduler tick 超过 90 秒）、或行情数据 +超过 2 个交易日未成功更新时返回 503；休市期间不要求数据更新。研究-only 部署 +（未启动引擎）不会被判为不健康。 + +### 数据保留（retention） + +```bash +# 归档并删除超过保留期的行（删除前写 dated CSV 到 archive 目录） +python main.py data retention --archive-dir ./archive + +# 按表覆盖保留期（0 = 禁用该表）；CLI 参数优先于内置默认值 +python main.py data retention --events-days 90 --signals-days 365 --trades-days 1825 +``` + +注意：环境变量 `QUANT_RETENTION_*_DAYS`（ORDERS/TRADES/PNL/SIGNALS/SESSIONS/EVENTS/NAV） +**只被 scheduler 的每日 retention hook 读取**（`RetentionPolicy.from_env()`）； +`main.py data retention` 使用 CLI 参数，不读取这些环境变量。未知/非法值回退默认。 + +默认保留期：orders/trades/pnl 5 年，signals/sessions 1 年，events 180 天，NAV 10 年。 +删除 `orders` 时还会检查是否仍有被保留的 `trades` 引用该订单，避免留下孤儿成交。 +删除后默认 `PRAGMA wal_checkpoint(TRUNCATE)` + `VACUUM`（`--no-vacuum` 跳过）。 +建议在 EOD 之后、备份之前运行 retention。 + +--- + +## 13. Forward paper 跟踪（只读，不动钱） + +**目的**：用真实行情按冻结策略逐日记录模拟盘，积累真实前向记录；不接券商、不下单。 + +**策略与目标** +- EP+换手：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/` +- 换手单因子：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/` +- 首批目标 as_of `2026-10-23`，执行日 `2026-10-26`；此后每个**交易所月末最后交易日**收盘后自动生成下一期目标（`daily_signal --prev-weights` 链接上一期）。 + +**每日流程**（工作日收盘后） +```bash +# 抓新浪数据到当天 → 重建 merged panel → 月末生成新目标 → 重建两个滚动台账 +python tools/forward_update.py +``` +- 数据：`.scratch/wide_sina_2026/stocks/`（300 只、后复权、含 amount/turnover）； +- 合并面板：`.scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet`（估值按日 ffill，无 bfill）； +- 台账：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/`（EP+换手）与 `forward_2026_turnover/`（换手）； +- 成本：佣金 0.03%（最低 5 元）、印花税按日期、平方根冲击；原始价由 `paper_track --raw-price-mode auto` 自动识别（新浪面板用 `amount/volume`）。 + +**自动化**：桌面端 Scheduled 任务 `quant-forward-paper-daily`，工作日 16:20 运行；失败写入 `.scratch/orchestrate/forward_update_failures.log`。月末目标生成前会抓取当日 ST 名单并强制排除；快照或目标生成失败、任一台账子进程失败时，主脚本以非零状态退出（fail closed），不得把旧台账当成当日更新成功。若日志出现 `merged cache ends <旧日期> ... provider has not published the current close yet`，说明数据源尚未发布当日收盘数据（2026-10-26 15:20 的新浪日线即仍停在 10-23），等待下一次运行即可，不要手工伪造当日行或放宽检查。周末/节假日按最近交易日校验，月末 Friday 不会因周末运行而被跳过。个股与合并面板均先写临时文件再原子替换；**非空但落后于当日的响应同样视为失败并重试**，不得覆盖旧的好数据。目标/当前持仓资产刷新失败、月末任一资产刷新失败、或超过 5 只刷新失败时退出 2，不把混合日期缓存用于调仓、基准或台账。补生成历史月末时只使用该月末之前的权重，拒绝用未来权重链接。 + +**v3.1 月末加固（2026-10-28）**： +- **月末交易日开跑就先抓当日 ST 名单并落盘（在任何数据门禁之前）**。即使当天门禁失败退出 2，之后运行仍可用 `st_codes_<月末>.txt` 补生成目标；该文件只会由全量覆盖校验通过的抓取写入，不要删除 `.scratch/orchestrate/` 下的 `st_codes_*.txt`。 +- ST 快照抓取每次 90 秒超时、至多 2 次尝试，失败在进程内记忆 10 分钟；每个进程至多一次成功全市场分页。全部失败但当日已有同日成功快照时复用之（仍为当日 PIT，复用前校验文件形状：六位代码且数量 ≥ max(10, 股票池 10%)），否则 fail closed。名单数量下限为覆盖资产的 0.5%。 +- `refetch` 的失败资产会再用实时快照复核停牌：快照必须是全市场帧（≥100 个代码）、≥50% 的代码当日有成交、该代码所有行（含重复行、无缺失值）成交量为 0、且重分类数量 ≤ 上限时，才保留缓存最后收盘价、不计失败；任何一项不满足仍计失败。零成交量或部分陈旧的降级快照无法绕过月末门禁。 +- 目标文件只认可解析、`as_of` 与文件名一致、权重非空的版本；损坏文件会被重新生成，month-end 扫描忽略损坏文件。`daily_signal` 输出为原子替换，不会留下半截目标。 +- 月度目标被拒时台账照常重建（按现有持仓估值），不会因换仓失败丢掉当日 NAV。 + +**v3.2 估值刷新（2026-10-28）**：`tools/fetch_valuation.py` 位于每日任务的 freeze_guard 之后、forward_update 之前，从百度追加供应商日期的最新 PE(TTM)/PB 观测（只追加、≤当天、逐资产原子写、按股票池重建合并文件），并写 `.scratch/valuation_baidu/vintage.json`。失败资产 >5% 或中位 vintage >21 天退出 2；**月末交易日刷新失败时当日不生成新目标**。不要手工编辑 `.scratch/valuation_baidu/` 下的文件。 + +**盘中实时监控（仅参考，不是正式 NAV）**： +```bash +python tools/forward_realtime.py # 单快照 +python tools/forward_realtime.py --interval 300 --count 12 # 每 5 分钟，共 12 次 +``` +该工具用新浪实时 `最新价/昨收` 计算盘中参考值，输出仅写入 `.scratch/forward_realtime/`。正式 `summary.json` 含 `book` 后，它按**实际持仓、参考价和现金**相对正式收盘 NAV 重估（`basis=official_book`）；没有该字段时才回退到目标权重参考（`basis=target_weights`）。它不包含新的执行成本、不改变“次日收盘执行”的冻结规则，也不会写入或覆盖 `forward_2026*` 台账。单次抓取失败只记录 `errors.log` 并等待下一周期，不发布旧快照；连续 3 次失败才停止。 + +**首次运行前**：在 Scheduled 页点一次 “Run now” 预授权 Bash 等工具，否则可能停在权限确认。 + +**已知限制**：宽池只含当前上市股票（幸存者偏差）；PE/PB 为半月频 ffill（≤3 周旧值）；行业映射静态；权重层面不取整手；这是模拟跟踪，不是实盘成交。 diff --git a/docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md b/docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md index e7931e0..bac4d8e 100644 --- a/docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md +++ b/docs/PRODUCTION_ARCHITECTURE_V1.md @@ -1,5 +1,11 @@ # Production Architecture v1: 80d Reversal + Vol Filter +> **STATUS: TARGET DESIGN — not implemented. See #78.** +> Strategy constants match `trading/reversal_paper_trader.py:20-25`. The risk +> overlay does not: code enforces 15% drawdown warning / 25% kill +> (`risk/circuit_breaker.py:68-69`), not −30%; the §3.3 slippage formula has no +> implementation. Treat §§3–5 as requirements, not current behavior. + > 从 statistical edge → operational edge > 目标不是更高的 Sharpe，是在真实市场中活下来 @@ -55,7 +61,7 @@ --- -## 2. 策略参数（已锁定，不修改） +## 2. 策略参数（设计目标；仅 `trading/reversal_paper_trader.py` 采用） | 参数 | 值 | |------|-----| @@ -104,7 +110,7 @@ where: | 规则 | 阈值 | 触发动作 | |------|------|---------| -| 最大回撤 | -30% (从峰值) | 停止交易, 全部平仓 | +| 最大回撤 | -30% (从峰值，目标值；代码实际 15% 警告 / 25% kill，见 `risk/circuit_breaker.py:68-69`) | 停止交易, 全部平仓 | | 单票上限 | 5% | 建仓时强制限制 | | 行业集中度 | 30% | 建仓时检查 | diff --git a/docs/QMT_ONBOARDING_CHECKLIST.md b/docs/QMT_ONBOARDING_CHECKLIST.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..07c0811 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/QMT_ONBOARDING_CHECKLIST.md @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +# QMT 实盘接入清单（用户操作 + 我接手部分） + +> 目标：用券商提供的 QMT/miniQMT 跑通认证演练，把 `real_miniqmt_certified` +> 从 false 变成有真实凭据的 true。**本清单不涉及任何真实资金投入**，全程用模拟账户。 + +## 一、必须由账户持有人本人完成（我无法代办） + +| # | 事项 | 说明 | +|---|------|------| +| 1 | 向客户经理确认 QMT 支持与门槛 | 原话："个人账户能否开通迅投 QMT（含 miniQMT 极简模式）量化交易终端？开通条件、资产门槛、需要签什么协议？有没有模拟盘？" | +| 2 | 开通量化权限 | 线上签署协议、风险测评（可能含人脸识别/视频见证），只能本人操作 | +| 3 | 下载 QMT 安装包 | 从**该券商官网**下载（部分券商要求登录后下载），或由客户经理提供；安装包可以放在你习惯的 `downloader software` 文件夹 | +| 4 | 安装并首次登录 | 安装目录建议短英文路径（如 `D:\QMT`）；用**模拟账户**登录；登录后开启"极简模式"（miniQMT），交易时段保持客户端运行 | + +安全约定：**密码不要发给任何人（包括我）**。登录在客户端里自己完成； +本项目的配置只保存账号 ID 和本地服务器地址（`localhost:58610`）， +密码通过环境变量 `QMT_PASSWORD` 提供，不写入代码或聊天记录。 + +## 二、你完成上面 4 步之后，我接手完成（不需要你动手） + +| # | 事项 | 说明 | +|---|------|------| +| 1 | 接入 xtquant | 把 QMT 安装目录附带的 `xtquant` 库接到项目 Python 环境并验证导入 | +| 2 | 配置核对 | `config/default.yaml` 的 `execution.qmt`：account / server / mode=sim | +| 3 | 连通性测试 | 用真实 miniQMT 做只读查询：账户、持仓、委托、实时行情快照 | +| 4 | 认证演练 | 在模拟账户上跑下单/撤单/部分成交/断线重连等场景，核对成交回报 | +| 5 | 出具报告 | 写明演练结果与残余风险；通过后把认证状态改为真实凭据的 true | +| 6 | 更新运维手册 | 把客户端路径、启动步骤、故障处理补进 `docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` | + +## 三、备选路线：不装任何软件也能先上小资金 + +月频策略一个月只调仓一次（约 30 笔委托）。系统可以生成精确的委托清单 +（代码 / 方向 / 股数 / 限价参考），由你在券商 App 手动下单——零门槛、零安装， +先验证真实成交价与滑点。适合作为 QMT 权限未开通前的过渡方案。 diff --git a/docs/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL.md b/docs/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8d53bac --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,88 @@ +# QMT / Forward 安全演练与明日运行手册（2026-10-27） + +## 当前结论 + +- **模拟故障注入演练：7/7 通过**。报告：`docs/research/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL_LATEST.json`。 +- QMT 专项测试：**118 passed**；全工具回归：**149 passed**。 +- 本机当前 `xtquant` 未安装，也没有运行中的 miniQMT，因此**尚未完成真实券商认证演练**，不能把下面的模拟通过理解为实盘放行。 +- 明日默认“正式跑”指 **正式 forward paper：真实行情、真实目标、模拟成交、逐日台账**，不连接券商、不下真实订单。 + +## 今日已通过的演练 + +| 场景 | 结果 | +|---|---| +| 陈旧/缺失/未来行情与 QMT 上海时区时间戳 | 旧 tick 拒绝，UTC 主机不误判上海时间 | +| XtOrder 累计快照 + XtTrade 去重与 VWAP | 200 股不会被算成 300 股；两笔 10/11 元成交 VWAP=10.5 | +| 部分撤单与迟到成交 | 模糊单笔回报不猜增量；更大的累计快照可单调补记，订单仍保持 cancelled | +| 下单超时 + 并发 resync | 只保留一个本地意图，恢复原 broker_order_id，无重复 PENDING | +| Kill Switch 延迟卖出 | 连续两轮只发一笔卖出，不全量重复卖出 | +| 持仓/账户/订单簿查询失败 | 返回 unknown/抛错，不当作空仓或可交易现金 | +| 无效 ADV 与费用现金约束 | 零 ADV 固定滑点回退；费用纳入买入资金，NAV/现金只扣一次 | + +运行： + +```bash +python tools/qmt_safety_drill.py +``` + +输出：`docs/research/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL_LATEST.json` 中的 `all_passed=true`、`real_miniqmt_certified=false`。 + +## 明日正式 forward 怎么跑 + +### 1. 开盘前：代码与回归检查 + +```bash +PYTEST_DISABLE_PLUGIN_AUTOLOAD=1 PYTHONPATH="packages/quant_core/src" python -m pytest tests/test_trading tests/test_live tests/test_tools -p no:codspeed --basetemp=.scratch/pytest/preopen -q +``` + +然后执行模拟演练，必须 7/7 通过： + +```bash +python tools/qmt_safety_drill.py +``` + +若任一失败：不要改参数掩盖，不要生成新的正式台账，先定位原因。 + +### 2. 盘中：可选的实时持仓参考 + +```bash +python tools/forward_realtime.py --interval 300 --count 66 +``` + +- 每 5 分钟一个快照，使用 `summary.book` 的实际持仓与现金。 +- 输出只在 `.scratch/forward_realtime/`，**不是正式 NAV，不扣新的执行成本，不改变正式收盘规则**。 + +### 3. 收盘后：生成正式台账 + +```bash +python tools/forward_update.py +``` + +脚本会刷新 300 只股票、检查最近交易日缓存、在月末生成目标并更新两个台账。数据源未发布、目标/持仓资产刷新失败、ST 快照不完整时都会失败关闭，不会假装成功。 + +### 4. 独立读回 + +```bash +python .scratch/orchestrate/read_forward_results.py +``` + +读回会检查首日、最新台账日与缓存日、持仓数、成本、目标哈希。输出在 `.scratch/orchestrate/forward_readback_<日期>.json`。 + +正式文件： + +- `docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover/{nav.csv,summary.json}` +- `docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/{nav.csv,summary.json}` + +首日之后才会有持仓期基准比较；不要用盘中 indicative NAV 替代它。 + +## 如果“正式跑”指真实券商下单 + +**明日不按这个含义放行。** 真实 miniQMT 还需要一套独立验收： + +1. 安装并登录券商 miniQMT，确认 `import xtquant` 可用；账户与服务器配置只走环境变量/本地配置，密码不进仓库。 +2. 先做只读连通性检查：真实持仓、现金、当日委托/成交可查询；接口失败时必须是 unknown，而不是空账户。 +3. 在券商仿真/极小范围环境验证延迟成交、重复回调、断线重连、超时恢复、部分撤单和 EOD 对账；必须无重复委托、无重复成交、VWAP 正确。 +4. 重启进程，确认原委托能够按本地意图 ID 找回；无法找回时禁止重试同一意图。 +5. 真实 forward 达到 `FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` 的评估门槛之前，仍不投真钱；当前研究证据没有证明可部署 alpha。 + +只有用户明确指定“真实账户、允许下单”后，才应另写一份带资金上限、标的范围、单日限制和人工 Kill Switch 的实盘执行单。**不要直接运行 `main.py trade --broker qmt` 作为明日默认动作。** diff --git a/docs/SESSION_2026-10-23_RESEARCH_DISCIPLINE_HANDOVER.md b/docs/SESSION_2026-10-23_RESEARCH_DISCIPLINE_HANDOVER.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5e0b689 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/SESSION_2026-10-23_RESEARCH_DISCIPLINE_HANDOVER.md @@ -0,0 +1,128 @@ +# 会话交接 · 研究纪律与实盘闭环（2026-10-23） + +> 本文件记录 2026-10-22 ~ 10-23 这一轮“按短板报告执行”的全部工作、验证结果、残余风险与续做入口。用户因其他事务暂停，后续可从这里继续。 + +## 0. 一句话状态 + +在分支 `feature/system-hardening`（基线 `c19d28b`）上连续完成 **13 个执行轮（R1–R13，约 60 个提交）**，HEAD `4a8a639`，全部本地提交、**未 push**。研究纪律（purge/embargo、DSR/FDR、holdout、逐 fold 选因子）、数据 PIT（Baostock 公告日、Tushare 成分股、因子/信号截面、Baostock ST）、成本感知优化器、主链路真实成本、QMT 重连、每日对账与独立账本、异步成交回写均已落地并有测试守护。 + +## 1. 工作方式（监督—执行环） + +- 监督方（主会话）：侦察 → 写任务书（`.scratch/orchestrate/taskbook_R*.md`）→ 守卫检查 → 发车执行方 subagent → **独立读回 + 亲跑测试**验收；不采信自报。 +- 执行方：按任务书施工、每小节 commit、起全新上下文 subagent 做对抗评审，迭代到无未决分歧；报告落 `.scratch/orchestrate/cc_report_R*.md`，评审落 `review_R*.md`。 +- 台账：`.scratch/orchestrate/_CHAIN_STATE.md`（逐轮发车/验收记录，绝对时间）。 +- 验收命令统一 `-p no:codspeed`；内存不足时 `PYTEST_DISABLE_PLUGIN_AUTOLOAD=1`（需要 `-p asyncio`）；量化包测试加 `PYTHONPATH=packages/quant_core/src`。 + +## 2. 完成的轮次（均经监督方亲验） + +| 轮次 | 内容 | 关键提交 | 监督验收 | +|---|---|---|---| +| R1 | Walk-Forward 增加 purge_gap / embargo；默认逐位一致 | `a01114f..a91a8ca` | 21+46 passed | +| R2 | DSR/BH-FDR 接入 `/api/sweep`、CLI sweep、因子筛选（`validate_sweep_trials`） | `9ba6735..cfc09f0` | 50+32 passed | +| R3 | 正式 holdout：配置 + sweep 守卫（422/exit 2）+ 研究路径剔除（含前向标签边界行） | `dbe1183..166e70d` | 350 passed | +| R4 | 因子选择移入每个 fold 的训练窗（`factor_selector`），pooled WF 修正 | `89030b9..68916b3` | 28+259+13 passed，基线 sha 一致 | +| R5 | Baostock 缺 pubDate 不再回退期末（删前视），缓存 v5，asset_growth 同季锚定 | `9b9e3ba..6d9b7e4` | 468 passed | +| R6a | provider 逐日 membership 接入 pipeline（provenance） | `559f0d0..84dbbc5` | 51 passed | +| R6b | 修 provider ffill 吞退出；membership 拆为 `universe_mask`（买拦卖不拦）；缓存 schema 6 | `870e97b..4752918` | 101 passed | +| R6c | 因子/信号截面 PIT：`excluded_mask = ~tradable | ~universe`；输入侧保留历史热身 | `eaf9a21..e89b18d` | 339 passed | +| R7a | Baostock 日线 isST → ST episode 表；缓存 schema 7 | `6171b4f..2ccee7b` | 34 passed | +| R8 | 优化器成本感知：`transaction_cost_bps`、`turnover_penalty`、`max_participation` 容量上限 | `8a4921e..78e54df` | 126 passed，默认路径逐位一致 | +| R9 | 主链路接入 daily_volume + raw_prices，启用 impact 成本；印花税按日期（null=法定表） | `854bbdf..e86a4b3` | 102 passed；成本对照：年化拖累 1.18pp → 2.08pp | +| R10 | QMT 懒重连（退避、fail closed）+ `query_stock_orders/trades` 回查 + get_orders TTL | `5eaef48..229d014` | 155 passed | +| R11 | Scheduler EOD 每日账实对账 + `reconciliation_results` 表 + 事件 | `2942352..50f3f50` | 90 passed | +| R12 | 独立账本：启动基线 + 成交流水推导 expected（消除同源自比较）；无基线=unknown | `f80be55..5e78128` | 144 passed | +| R13 | 实盘异步成交回写 Store（`_sync_broker_fills`，累计量幂等，order.synced） | `a39c15f..4a8a639` | 101 passed | +| R14 | Tushare ST 历史（namechange → episode 表）；缓存 schema 8 | `3ed18d1..c00a056` | 72 passed | +| R15 | 优化器数值稳定性：`cp.psd_wrap` 修 cvxpy ARPACK 认证失败；PSD 加脊与告警 | `d50342e..9e11329` | 129 passed | + +### 真实数据研究（2026-10-24，R19b 重跑后） + +本机网络不可用（Baostock 登录超时），改用本机既有真实日线缓存（101 只 × 2018–2025）跑完整研究闭环，详见 `docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md`。经三份对抗评审，R19a 修复门禁前视/低波前向/大小盘全样本分组/基准/DSR 口径、R18 修复 gross 超配后，R19b 已用修正代码重跑（结果 JSON 在 `.scratch/orchestrate/r19b_*_2026-10-24.json`）： + +- **净成本 OOS（2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1433 会话）**：EP+换手（行业中性）Sharpe 0.470、年化 10.40%、回撤 −19.72%；行业+成交额中性 0.365 / 8.78%；60 日低换手 0.682 / 13.92%；60 日低换手行业中性 0.363；低波组合 0.550。Sharpe 均为平台口径 `(CAGR−3%)/年化波动`。 +- **同窗口基准**：日频等权 0.294 / 9.00% / −25.71%；等权 buy&hold（constant-share，退市价值结转）0.243 / 8.06% / −33.52%。旧报告的 0.222 / 4.50% 不可复现且标签错误（4.50% 是基准自身的超额年化）。注意：R19a 工具的 buy&hold 用 skipna 截面均值、会隐性剔除退市股（得到 0.310 / 9.52%），本轮在 `.scratch` 用 carry-forward 修正，工具本体待下一轮修复。 +- **风格归因（市场+低换手+低波+EP+规模，Newey-West）**：R² 0.86–0.88；残余 alpha −1.0% ~ +2.6%/年，|t|≤1.14，**没有一个显著**。行业中性化后的“保守候选”alpha t=0.23–0.45。 +- **DSR（超额收益，N=48）**：p=0.71–0.89，全部不显著；旧报告的低 p 来自 gross 输入与低估 trial 数。 +- **PIT 大小盘拆分**（2018–19 成交额分组）：大盘半池 Sharpe 0.345、小盘半池 0.633——旧结论“大盘更强”方向反转，低换手溢价在当年小盘中更强。 +- **容量（因果波动率估计器）**：1M Sharpe 0.594、5 亿 0.443，阈值（≥0.3）在 5 亿处仍未触及；估计器有重复扣费/非 WF 基线等已知局限（见报告 §7）。 +- **结论（诚实版）**：策略本质是低换手/价值/低波的**风格暴露实现**，不是已证实的 alpha；理性预期年化 5–9%、Sharpe 0.13–0.4（“5–7%/0.2–0.4”只在 10–12% 波动假设下同时成立）；不应据此投入真金白银，下一步是 forward paper 跟踪与正交 alpha 研究。 +- 目标组合（`docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.{json,csv}`）已用 `tools/daily_signal.py` 重新生成（权重与上一版一致），并标注“style tilt 演示，不是已验证 alpha”。 + +### R20–R30 更新（2026-10-25） + +- **R20 行业上限与 rank 对齐**：真实行业映射传入优化器，30% cap 第一次真正生效（0 违规）；WF 增加 rank 归一化选项（默认关闭）。重跑后 Sharpe：ep_turn_sector 0.490、ep_turn_ss 0.355、turnover60_sector 0.429、lowvol_sector 0.577；DSR 0.78–0.89。 +- **R22 波动率目标**：6 组预注册实验中仅 1 组过回撤门槛，信息比率不变 → 机械降杠杆，不推荐。 +- **R23 正交因子预注册筛选**：彩票效应、异质波动、Amihud、日内收益、异常成交量 5 个因子 0/5 通过；与现有策略日收益相关 0.94–0.98，组合层面退化为同一多头篮子。 +- **R25 组合构建对比**：等权 top-20/30、信号比例、风险平价全部不合格（换手 3.4–4 倍、回撤差 2.8–7.2pp）；保留 MVO。 +- **R26 生产工具**：`tools/daily_signal.py` 补齐组合层 30% 行业上限，目标与 2020–2025 滚动台账重生成。 +- **R27 宽池工具**：`tools/fetch_universe.py`（akshare/baostock/新浪/腾讯，断点续传）。 +- **R28 交付前修复**：选择器迁入 CORE 层（架构边界），T+1 重启测试消除周末日历依赖；全量 3,862 passed。 +- **R30 宽池验证**：新浪抓到 **297 只跨板块股票（60:106 / 00:99 / 30:92）**，2018–2025。低换手方向复现（Sharpe 0.807 vs 同池等权 0.493，+0.31），但优势主要来自降波动（IR vs 等权为负），且宽池 0 退市股（幸存者偏差，明确披露）；101 池的超额更强（IR +0.30、CAGR +4.1pp）但仅限深市 000xxx。 +- **决策备忘**：`docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md` —— 当前不投真金白银；门槛为 6 个月 forward paper、≥300 只含退市/ST 的 PIT 池、正交信号 alpha t≥2 且 DSR p<0.1、对账/Kill Switch 演练。 + +### R31–R33 与 forward paper（2026-10-25 凌晨） + +- **R31 宽池价值**：300 只 2018–2026-10-23 新浪后复权面板 + 百度 PE/PB（半月频 ffill，无前视）。宽池 EP+换手 Sharpe 0.674/0.606，**低于换手单因子 0.805**——EP 在宽池无增量证据；生成了 as_of 2026-10-23 的实盘目标（32 只、单票 5%、行业最大 13.5%、首建换手 50%，带免责声明）。 +- **R32 paper_track 原始价口径**：`--raw-price-mode auto` 自动识别后复权面板（新浪走 `amount/volume`，Baostock 走 close），旧路径逐字节一致。 +- **R33 2026 真 holdout**（2026 数据从未参与选择，生产链路、零调参）：换手单因子 **−4.89% vs 基准 −11.63%（超额 +6.73pp）**，Sharpe −0.57 vs −0.83，回撤 −17.5% vs −22.2%；EP+换手 −8.49%。防御性风格 tilt 在真样本外延续，但绝对收益为负。 +- **趋势过滤 overlay（预注册）**：负结果（Sharpe 0.683→0.527；2026 −0.57→−1.14），不采纳。 +- **Forward paper 已就绪**：双策略目标（`target_portfolio_2026-10-23.json` EP+换手、`target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.json` 换手单因子），执行日 2026-10-26；已建工作日 16:20 自动任务 `quant-forward-paper-daily`（运行 `.scratch/orchestrate/forward_update.py --track`）。**注意**：该任务未保存本会话权限模式，首次运行可能停在权限确认；请在桌面端 “Scheduled” 页对任务点一次 “Run now” 预授权。 + +### 关键数字与结论 + +- **成本真实性**：R9 前后对照（40 只合成股、2022–2024、月频、10M）：旧默认年化成本拖累 1.181%，新默认（冲击成本 + 按日期印花税）2.076%，年化收益 2.149% → 1.237%。方向正确：旧回测系统性低估成本。 +- **PIT**：Baostock 缺公告日的行已丢弃；Tushare 成分按日 mask 生效（买入门禁 + 因子截面），卖出不受成分退出限制；Baostock ST 历史可用（真实数据 ST 过滤不再是空转）。 +- **研究纪律**：sweep/因子筛选已带 DSR/BH-FDR；holdout 独立成配置并有守卫；WF 因子逐 fold 训练窗选择，全样本选择偏差消除。 +- **实盘闭环**：QMT 断线可恢复、委托/成交可回查；每日 EOD 对账用“启动基线 + 成交流水”作为独立 expected；异步成交落库，账本不再漂移。 + +## 3. 分支与远端状态（重要） + +- 本地分支 `feature/system-hardening`，HEAD 已推送；远端同名分支 head = `def17e5`（2026-10-24 聚合推送，`c19d28b..def17e5`）。 +- PR **#84**（base `develop`）已更新描述，包含 R1–R16 的摘要与真实数据研究结论；CI 由推送触发。 +- 说明：本会话 `gh` CLI 未登录，PR 更新通过本机 git 凭据调 GitHub REST API 完成；后续如需 CI 结果请查看 PR 页面。 +- 另有 R16 工具化提交（`tools/real_data_research.py`）在同一分支上。 + +## 4. 已知残余与风险（评审记录在案） + +1. **Tushare ST 历史**仍未实现（namechange 路径未做）；CSI300 真实数据回测的 ST 过滤仍不可用（Baostock 已可用）。 +2. **TCA 回写/校准**未做：R9 接通了冲击模型，但系数仍是硬编码默认值，未用实盘成交校准。 +3. **holdout 最终评估器**未实现（只有窗口纪律与守卫）。 +4. **策略闭环**未做：尚未用真实数据跑通“一条策略研究 → paper → 小资金”。这是“赚钱”目标的下一关键步。 +5. R13 评审残余：XTP 无 resync（重启后停机成交不可恢复）；QMT `order_time` 格式未在真机确认；idle sync 与 EOD 首跑之间存在晚到成交窄窗口。 +6. R11/R12 残余：多租户 EOD 快照共用 default 租户（既有口径）；公司行为未纳入 ledger（分红/拆分会让现金/持仓对账出现已知差异，docstring 已注明）。 +7. 环境：`pytest-codspeed` 会让回测类测试无声死亡（exit 127）；低内存时 pytest 插件自动加载也会被杀。见 memory `pytest-codspeed-crash-local`。 + +## 5. 续做路线（按“距赚钱远近”排序） + +1. **推进策略闭环**：选一条策略（小市值反转/周频），用真实数据（Baostock/Tushare）走 研究 → WF → paper → 小资金；把 R9 成本与 R1/R2/R3/R4 纪律用在同一条策略上，产出第一份“净成本后”证据。 +2. **TCA 校准**：用实盘/paper 成交回写冲击模型系数；R9 已留好参数入口。 +3. **Tushare ST（namechange）**：补齐 CSI300 的 ST 历史；参考 R7a 的 episode 契约与缓存版本纪律。 +4. **holdout 最终评估器**：一次性评估工具 + 结果落 lab registry。 +5. **推送与 PR**：聚合一次 push，更新/新开 PR，跑 CI（六项）。 +6. 之后：另类数据真实管道、tick 引擎接入主链路、投资者门户等（对赚钱优先级低）。 + +## 6. 断点续做入口 + +- 台账：`.scratch/orchestrate/_CHAIN_STATE.md` +- 任务书：`.scratch/orchestrate/taskbook_R*.md` +- 执行报告/评审：`.scratch/orchestrate/cc_report_R*.md`、`review_R*.md` +- 进度：`.scratch/orchestrate/progress_R*.md` +- 本报告：`docs/SESSION_2026-10-23_RESEARCH_DISCIPLINE_HANDOVER.md` +- 短板总报告（Word）：`docs/量化平台短板诊断与实盘路线图_2026-10-22.docx` + +## 7. 验收命令速查 + +```bash +# 研究纪律 +PYTEST_DISABLE_PLUGIN_AUTOLOAD=1 PYTHONPATH=packages/quant_core/src \ + python -m pytest tests/test_backtest/test_walkforward.py tests/test_research tests/test_strategy -q -p no:codspeed + +# 数据 PIT +PYTHONPATH=packages/quant_core/src python -m pytest tests/test_data -q -p no:codspeed + +# 成本/优化器/交易 +PYTHONPATH=packages/quant_core/src python -m pytest tests/test_backtest tests/test_portfolio tests/test_trading tests/test_core -q -p no:codspeed + +# 全量（内存充足时） +PYTHONPATH=packages/quant_core/src python -m pytest tests -q -p no:codspeed +``` diff --git a/docs/SESSION_HANDOFF_20260731.md b/docs/SESSION_HANDOFF_20260731.md index ef1b4d8..55331fb 100644 --- a/docs/SESSION_HANDOFF_20260731.md +++ b/docs/SESSION_HANDOFF_20260731.md @@ -1,5 +1,10 @@ # Session 交接文档 — 2026-07-31 +> **STATUS: HISTORICAL RECORD — counts and file sizes are stale (2026-10). See #78.** +> §1.4's finding (five referenced governance documents never existed) was real; +> the dangling references were removed in 2026-10 (see #68). As of 2026-10-20 the +> live tree has 21 CLI subcommands, 99 HTTP endpoints + 1 WebSocket, not the numbers below. + > **目的**：记录本 session（2026-07-31）与用户关于 quant_platform 的完整讨论过程、架构思考、关键发现与优先级决策。 > **读者**：其他 AI agent / 未来的会话 / 项目维护者。 > **注意**：本文档是讨论记录，不是需求文档。所有"建议"均未经用户最终拍板，需仔细阅读"共识"与"待决"部分。 diff --git a/docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md b/docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md index 81b081e..0e4b605 100644 --- a/docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md +++ b/docs/VALIDATION_REPORT.md @@ -1,15 +1,30 @@ # Validation Report — Quant Platform v1.0 +> ## ⛔ STATUS: SUPERSEDED（2026-10-20） +> +> 本报告生成于 **2026-06-20**，所有数字早于 2026-09/10 的诚实性修复轮次，**全部作废， +> 不得作为当前证据引用**。两个具体原因： +> +> - 「MVO 60/60 Success, 0 Fallback」：该配置当时实际有 **54/60 次静默回退等权** +> （见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` 第五轮）；报告的 SCS 日志样本并不能证明优化器在工作。 +> - 「WalkForward 全部通过」：未覆盖后来发现的 OOS 指标覆盖 train+test 问题（BUG-21）， +> 也未验证 publish_date / ST 公告日 / 行业生效日的真实 PIT 行为。 +> +> 当前状态与仍然存在的限制见 `docs/HANDOVER.md` **第十轮（2026-10-20）**。 +> 本文件仅作历史存档；其中的命令和代码行号可能已失效。 + > 本文档记录了量化研究平台的系统性验证结果。 > 目标：证明核心研究链路（因子计算 → Alpha 合成 → 回测验证）的**正确性**和**可信度**。 > -> 最后更新：2026-06-20 +> 最后更新：2026-06-20（历史；已 SUPERSEDED） --- ## 1. Executive Summary -本平台经过 6 项关键验证，**全部通过**： +> 以下为 **2026-06-20 的历史结论**，见顶部 SUPERSEDED 横幅；不得作为当前证据引用。 + +本平台经过 6 项关键验证，**全部通过**（历史记录）： | 验证项目 | 结果 | 意义 | |---------|------|------| diff --git a/docs/research/ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md b/docs/research/ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md index 3c2e736..cf67b57 100644 --- a/docs/research/ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md +++ b/docs/research/ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md @@ -1,7 +1,12 @@ # Ablation Study #001: Factor Selection vs Equal-Weight Factor Aggregation > **日期**：2026-06-20 -> **状态**：已完成 +> **状态**：⚠️ **SUPERSEDED — 本报告的数字作废（2026-10-19 标注）** +> +> 本报告产出于 2026-09 诚实性清算之前。当时 `ma_convergence` 返回 `Series`，通过 pandas 的 +> 标签并集把整个截面变成 NaN，信号只有 0.69% 有值 —— 每一次回测实际都是等权买入持有。 +> 下方（尤其是第 132 行附近）报告的 `ma_convergence +0.0061 / +0.079` 属于该缺陷。 +> 需要这些数字请用修复后的代码重跑；不要引用本报告。见 Issue #60 / #54。 > **实验 ID**：ABLATION-001 --- diff --git a/docs/research/CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7e0aed6 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,75 @@ +# 可转债双低：预注册研究结果（2026-10-25） + +> 结论先行：**按预注册规则放弃该方向。** 默认配置（top20 等权、强赎代理 15/30 日、评级 ≥AA-）在开发期（2019–2022）Sharpe 1.10，但样本外（2023–2025）只有 **0.275**，跑输可转债等权基准（0.382）；2026 真 holdout **−5.13%**，也跑输转债等权（−4.34%）。H1/H2/H3 全部不成立，按预注册 §8“H1 失败 → 放弃，不再调参重试”执行。 +> +> 预注册：`docs/research/PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md` + +## 1. 结果总览 + +| 检验 | 预注册要求 | 结果 | 判定 | +|---|---|---|---| +| H1（OOS 2023-01-03~2025-12-31） | 净 Sharpe ≥ 0.5 且优于全部基准 | Sharpe **0.275**、CAGR 5.40%；转债等权 0.382 / 沪深300 0.265 / 60-40 0.264 | ❌ | +| H2（2026 holdout，193 日） | 收益不低于转债等权、回撤不更深 | **−5.13%** vs 转债等权 −4.34%；MDD −12.2% vs −11.6% | ❌ | +| H3（30/50bps 压力） | 相对转债等权超额不翻转 | 30bps Sharpe 0.138、超额 −2.36pp；50bps Sharpe −0.014、超额 −3.65pp | ❌ | +| 敏感性网格 | 默认配置不能是孤立显著点 | 默认非孤立（k30 邻域更高），但 DSR p≈0.92–0.99（N=18），无一显著 | 警示 | +| 开发期观察 | 只校验数据管线 | Sharpe **1.099**、CAGR 18.62%、超额 +4.08pp | 强，但与 OOS 严重背离 | + +## 2. 默认配置逐年 + +| 年份 | 策略 | 转债等权（同窗口） | +|---|---:|---:| +| 2019 | +27.6% | — | +| 2020 | +10.0% | — | +| 2021 | +41.6% | — | +| 2022 | −2.8% | — | +| 2023 | −5.2% | — | +| 2024 | +8.6% | — | +| 2025 | +13.1% | — | +| 2026（至 10-23） | −5.1% | −4.3% | + +开发期（尤其 2021 年 +41.6%）与 OOS 的断裂非常明显：典型的“因子在 2019–2021 的转债牛市里有效，2022 年后失效”。2022 年转债信用风险事件（低价券违约）之后，双低因子的收益结构发生变化。 + +## 3. 成本压力（OOS） + +| 单边成本 | CAGR | Sharpe | MDD | 年化超额 vs 转债等权 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 12bps（基线：佣金 2bps + 滑点 10bps） | 5.40% | 0.275 | −14.2% | −1.20pp | +| 30bps | 3.96% | 0.138 | −15.6% | −2.36pp | +| 50bps | 2.38% | −0.014 | −17.5% | −3.65pp | + +月换手约 0.64（单边），年化成本约 0.9%。转债没有印花税，但低价券的买卖价差与流动性成本可能高于 12bps——真实成本只会更不利。 + +## 4. 敏感性网格（OOS，只报告不选择） + +预注册枚举为 `top_k{10,20,30} × 强赎阈值{10,15,20} × 评级{AA-,AA}`，实际是 **18 组**（预注册文本误写为 12；以枚举为准，DSR 试验数按 18）。 + +| 组 | Sharpe 范围 | 说明 | +|---|---|---| +| k=10 | −0.27 ~ 0.05 | 5% 单券上限使 10 只持仓只能投 50%，其余现金——结构性现金拖累，不能据此评价信号 | +| k=20 | 0.11 ~ 0.32 | 默认 0.275 | +| k=30 | 0.31 ~ **0.51** | 最好的一组（k30/r15/AA）刚好过 0.5，但 DSR p≈0.90，不显著 | + +**没有一组在计入 18 次搜索后显著**（DSR p 0.92–0.99）。k=30 邻域更好只说明“更分散”有帮助，而不是双低信号有效；事后改用 k=30 属于数据窥探，预注册不允许。 + +## 5. 数据与实现偏差（全部披露） + +1. **转股溢价率字段缺失**：东财 `USWAPTRATE` 中位覆盖率仅 17%，按预注册允许的方式用 `收盘价 / 转股价值 − 1` 自算。 +2. **无成交量/成交额**：只能用固定滑点（12/30/50bps），无法建模冲击；发行规模 ≥3 亿过滤只是粗筛。 +3. **评级只有发行时评级**（AA- 及以上），不是存续期跟踪评级；信用下调/违约（2023 年个案）未逐日建模。 +4. **强赎用代理**：转股价值 ≥130 的交易日占最近 30 日的比例达到阈值即剔除；真实强赎公告可能更早，代理会略晚退出。 +5. **票息忽略**：转债利息（每年 0.2%–2%）与到期赎回价未计入，策略与基准同口径，绝对收益被低估约 0–1pp/年。 +6. **17 只转债无历史数据**（新券/接口缺失），未进入样本。 +7. **网格数量**：预注册写“12 组”，枚举实为 18 组，按 18 执行并按 N=18 计算 DSR。 + +## 6. 判定的含义 + +- 这不是“双低因子永远无效”的证明，而是“在 2019–2026 的 A 股转债市场、按预注册的参数与成本，默认组合没有通过 OOS/holdout”。开发期与 OOS 的断裂、DSR 不显著、成本压力翻转，三个证据一致。 +- 按预注册 §8，**放弃该方向，不再调参重试**；该方向记为一次已消耗的试验。若未来重启，必须作为**新的预注册**（新假设、新样本、新 holdout），不能复用本次结果择优。 +- 与股票、ETF 两条线的结论一致：在免费数据、月频、无杠杆的条件下，我们还没有找到能通过真 holdout 的净优势。**不投真金白银**的结论不变。 + +## 7. 产物 + +- 数据：`.scratch/cb/{bond_list.parquet,meta.parquet,panel_*.parquet,hs300.parquet,bonds/（1,048 只）}` +- 代码：`.scratch/orchestrate/{fetch_cb_data.py,cb_double_low.py}` +- 结果：`.scratch/cb/{default_results.json,stress_results.json,grid_results.json,holdout_results.json,grid_daily.parquet}` +- 运行：`python .scratch/orchestrate/cb_double_low.py build|run|stress|grid|holdout` diff --git a/docs/research/DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..be61886 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,27 @@ +# 历史数据缺陷台账（2026-10-25） + +> 外部评审要求“完成历史数据缺陷清单”。本台账逐项列出已知问题、影响、当前处理与下一步；状态分为 **已修复 / 部分缓解 / 未解决 / 接受（有披露）**。 + +| # | 缺陷 | 影响 | 当前处理 | 状态 | 下一步 | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | 宽池（新浪）**无退市股** | 绝对收益与部分因子结论偏乐观；策略-基准差受影响较小 | 报告与评审材料显式披露；101 池含 12 只区间内退市股可作对照 | 未解决（披露） | 网络恢复后用 Baostock 全量（含退市）重建宽池；或购入含退市的数据 | +| 2 | **无 ST 历史**（宽池）；101 池 `is_st` 为全样本静态且全 False | ST 股 5% 涨跌停未建模；ST 过滤在真实数据上不可用 | **101 池已用 Baostock 日频 `isST` 重建 PIT 掩码**（22 只、7,859 股票日）；两种 ST 处理下策略 Sharpe 0.474→0.382/0.375，相对可投资等权累计超额 +2.4%→−10.4%/−11.2%（报告 §23）。宽池（新浪）仍无 ST 历史 | 部分缓解（101 已复核；宽池未解决） | 宽池改用 Baostock 日线（含 isST）重建；ST 5% 涨跌停阈值按状态区分 | +| 3 | **估值可得时间未知**：百度 PE/PB 半月频，供应商可能回填历史 | 宽池 EP 因子可能含前视；EP 结论不应视为通过 PIT 审查 | 已用 **Baostock 日频 peTTM/pbMRQ**（按其公告财报计算）替换并复跑 R31 变体 A/B（报告 §22）：EP IC 0.0196→0.0204，A/B Sharpe 0.497/0.674→0.479/0.644，结论不变 | 已复核（结论稳健） | 若要用财务因子下正式结论，再用 Tushare/公告日财务自建面板（Baostock 自身 PIT 实现未逐条独立核对） | +| 4 | **行业映射静态最新** | 轻度前视；历史行业变更被回溯 | 报告披露；因子中性化与组合 cap 都用静态映射 | 部分缓解（披露） | 获取带 effective_date 的行业历史；或改用申万历史分类数据 | +| 5 | **涨跌停 9.8% 近似** | 30xxxx 20% 限制被误挡（保守）；ST 5% 被放行（偏松）；无法判断盘口能否成交 | 引擎按方向门禁（买挡涨停、卖挡跌停）；用执行日当天 pct；**分板块阈值复核已完成**（报告 §24）：B 0.674→0.656、D 0.805→0.805，结论不变 | 已复核（影响很小） | ST 5% 阈值与逐笔可成交性仍未建模（ST 已剔除买入池） | +| 6 | **无盘中路径/集合竞价** | 次日收盘成交是理想化假设；未建模开盘竞价、限价单排队、部分成交 | paper_track 用次日收盘 + 现金约束 + 成本 | 接受（披露） | 引入分钟线/盘口数据做保守执行模拟；当前数据源不支持 | +| 7 | **冲击成本参数未校准** | 成本可能低估或高估；impact vs fixed 差异小不代表成本正确 | 已完成 30/50bps 固定滑点压力测试（报告 §21）：Sharpe 仅降 0.03–0.06，但相对日频等权的累计超额由 +2.4% 翻为 −2.4%/−6.0%——净优势对成本假设极敏感 | 部分缓解（结论已出） | 用真实成交 TCA 校准；forward paper 积累成交偏差后再定 | +| 8 | **退市最后一日收益缺失**（101 池部分股票） | 退市前最后一小段收益可能被忽略，影响很小 | 记录在案 | 接受（小影响） | 用 provider 退市日数据补齐 | +| 9 | **基准缓存来源未核实**（Baostock bench） | 若基准为 CSI300 等，与自定义池不可比 | 本研究统一用同池 EW / 市值加权 / buy&hold，不依赖 bench 缓存 | 已规避 | 需要指数基准时显式拉取并标注来源 | +| 10 | **幸存者偏差影响基准本身** | 宽池 EW 基准也偏乐观；策略-基准差相对稳健，但绝对数字不可外推 | 同池比较 + 披露 | 部分缓解 | 同 #1 | +| 11 | **PE/PB 负值与极端值** | EP 计算需过滤 pe<=0；极端值靠 winsorize | `pe<=0 → NaN`；1/99 缩尾 | 已处理 | — | +| 12 | **复权口径**：新浪 hfq 会随新分红重算历史 | 若不重抓全历史，跨期收益会断裂 | `forward_update.py` 每次**全量重抓** 2018 至今天，保证同一复权基准 | 已处理 | — | +| 13 | **原始价代理**：用 `amount/volume` 作为原始价 | 佣金/冲击按 CNY 成交额计算，优于用后复权价 | paper_track `--raw-price-mode auto` 自动识别；跨源校验通过 | 已处理 | — | +| 14 | **公司行为（分红/拆股）**：研究用后复权收益，实盘持仓需券商处理 | 研究不受影响；纸面账本与券商可能偏离 | 实盘 paper 用 hfq 收益；对账以券商为准（R12/R13） | 接受（披露） | 实盘前补齐公司行为对账 | +| 15 | **网络受限导致数据缺口/抓取失败** | 部分股票缺失（宽池 3 只失败）；更新可能中断 | 断点续传；失败清单；全量重抓 | 运维问题 | 多源冗余（新浪/腾讯/Baostock） | + +## 结论 + +- **会改变方向性结论的缺陷**：#1（幸存者）、#2（宽池 ST）、#4（行业）——这三项应在下一轮研究前优先补齐；当前结论已按“未通过完整 PIT 审查”对待。#3（估值 PIT）已用 Baostock 日频估值复核（报告 §22），结论不变；#2 的 101 池部分已用 PIT `isST` 复核（报告 §23），并发现 ST 暴露显著高估了原策略表现；#5（分板块涨跌停）已复核（报告 §24），影响可忽略。 +- **不会改变方向但影响数字可信度**：#6、#7、#8、#10——已披露，forward paper 会给出真实成交偏差。 +- **已处理**：#11、#12、#13；**已规避**：#9。 diff --git a/docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c83176c --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,102 @@ +# 部署决策备忘 · 低换手/价值多因子组合（2026-10-25） + +> 结论先行：**当前不应投入真金白银。** 现有证据支持“有经济逻辑的风格敞口”，不支持“已证实的 alpha”。建议进入 forward paper 跟踪，并设定明确的复核门槛（见 §4）。 + +## 1. 我们评估的到底是什么 + +- 信号：EP（1/PE）+ 20 日换手（IC 加权、行业中性、rank 归一化）；月度调仓；5% 单票上限、30% 行业上限、30% 换手上限；MVO + 成本惩罚。 +- 数据：本机 Baostock 缓存，101 只深市主板（000xxx）股票，2018-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31；无 ST 历史、无 PIT 财务面板；行业映射为静态最新分类。 +- 验证：Walk-Forward（train 504 / test 126 / purge 5 / embargo 5，12 折，OOS 2020-02-11~2025-12-31），逐 fold 训练窗选因子 + BH-FDR；真实成本（佣金/印花税按日期/平方根冲击）；R18 现金约束；同日涨跌停门禁。 + +## 2. 核心证据（全部为修正后口径） + +| 指标 | 结果 | 解读 | +|---|---|---| +| 净成本 OOS Sharpe（EP+换手，行业中性） | 0.490 | 平台口径（CAGR−3%）/波动；**未含 ST 过滤，§2d 修正后为 0.375** | +| 同池日频等权基准 | 0.294（年化 9.00%，MDD −25.7%） | 策略优势约 +0.20 Sharpe | +| 行业+成交额中性后 | 0.355 | 风格暴露被剥离一部分 | +| 五因子风格回归 | R² 0.86–0.88；alpha t 0.52 | 收益主要是市场+低换手+低波+价值+规模 | +| DSR（超额，N=48 个真实搜索配置） | p = 0.71–0.89 | 全部不显著 | +| PIT 大小盘拆分 | 小盘 0.63 / 大盘 0.35 | 收益更依赖小盘（容量与流动性风险） | +| 简单构建对比（等权 top-N 等） | 全部不合格 | MVO 的换手平滑有价值 | +| 波动率目标 | 5 组仅 1 组过门槛 | 机械降杠杆，不改变信息比率 | +| 5 个正交因子预注册筛选 | 0/5 通过（alpha t≤1.03） | 在这套约束下都退化为同一多头篮子 | +| 生产链路滚动台账（2020–2025） | Sharpe 0.68、年化 14.7%、MDD −21.6% | 单条历史路径，不构成额外证据 | +| 容量（OOS 估算） | 2000 万内几乎无冲击；阈值 >5 亿 | 个人资金不受容量约束 | + +## 2b. 2026 真 holdout（零调参，未参与任何选择） + +> ⚠️ 2026-10-25 复核：原 holdout 目标没有 ST 过滤（每月 7%–13% 权重为 ST）。用 PIT ST 重跑后：换手策略 **−8.80%** vs 可投资等权 −11.13%、全样本等权 −11.63%，仍少跌约 2.3pp、回撤 −18.6% vs −22.2%，但 Sharpe −0.817 低于基准（负收益窗口低波动压低 Sharpe）；EP+换手 −10.43% 弱于基准。原 +6.73pp 约一半来自 ST 暴露，**不能表述为 alpha**（报告 §26）。 + +- 换手单因子（原始，含 ST）：2026-02-02..10-23 总收益 **−4.89%**，基准 −11.63%（超额 +6.73pp），Sharpe −0.57 vs −0.83，回撤 −17.5% vs −22.2%。 +- EP+换手（原始，含 ST）：−8.49%，弱于换手单因子；与宽池研究一致（EP 无增量）。 +- 解读：防御性风格 tilt 在真样本外延续（跌得少），但**绝对收益仍为负**；不改变“不投真金白银”的结论，支持先跑 forward paper。 + +## 2c. 口径审计与基准矩阵（外部评审后补充） + +- 标准年化 Sharpe 比平台自定义口径（`(CAGR−3%)/σ`）高约 0.03–0.05；DSR 内部本来就是标准口径，p 值不变（N=48 时仍 0.71–0.89）。今后以标准 Sharpe 为主指标。 +- 宽池 2020–2025：策略相对**市值加权**（CAGR 8.6%）与 **buy&hold**（13.2%）有明显优势；相对**日频等权**（15.3%，波动 23.6%）是“收益接近、波动显著更低”。基准选择改变优势大小，不改变“防御性 tilt”的定性。 +- 估值可得时间只做了部分审计（隐含 EPS 跳变集中在 2/4/5/8/10 月，符合财报季），不能证明供应商未回填；宽池 EP 仍按“未通过完整 PIT 审查”对待。 +- **成本压力测试已完成**（报告 §21）：固定滑点 30/50bps 下，标准 Sharpe 0.474→0.441→0.415，但相对同池日频等权的全期累计超额从 +2.4% 变为 −2.4%/−6.0%。绝对收益尚可，**净优势不成立**，与“不投真钱、先 paper”的结论一致。 +- 策略冻结清单见 `docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md`（目标/代码哈希、变更与终止规则）。 + +## 2d. PIT ST 复核（2026-10-25，修订核心证据） + +101 池的 ST 历史此前实际失效（静态全 False）。用 Baostock 日频 `isST` 重建后（22 只、7,859 股票日），以同一冻结定义重跑： + +| 处理 | 标准 Sharpe | CAGR | 全期累计超额 | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| 原版（无 ST 过滤） | 0.474 | 9.27% | vs 全样本等权 +2.4% | +| 禁止买入 ST | 0.382 | 7.80% | vs 全样本等权 −10.4% | +| 完整 ST 政策 + 可投资基准 | **0.375** | 7.71% | vs 可投资等权 **−11.2%** | + +剔除 ST 后基准反而更高（等权 CAGR 9.30%→10.90%，Sharpe 0.390→0.453），策略端下降、基准端上升，**原版“接近等权”的优势消失，变为明显落后**。生产链路本来就过滤 ST，因此这一版才代表可部署策略。部署结论不变（不投真钱），但**历史证据的强度进一步下调**。2026-10-26 用因果 ADV 与费用现金约束复算，Sharpe **0.387**、累计超额 **−9.6%**，结论仍不变。 + +**实盘目标同步修复**：v1 的 2026-10-23 目标 40 只持仓中有 5 只是 ST（daily_signal 从未实现 ST 过滤）。已加 `--exclude-codes-file`、月末任务抓取当日 ST 名单并 fail-closed，目标重建为 v2（v1 保留），冻结清单升级 v2、新 tag `forward-freeze-2026-10-25`。详见报告 §25 与 `FREEZE_MANIFEST` §5。 + +## 3. 为什么仍然判“不投” + +1. **统计上不显著**：计入 44–48 个被搜索配置后，DSR p 0.71–0.89；风格回归 alpha t≤1.14。回测里的 0.49–0.68 是“被看过的值”，向前要扣选择偏差；**扣掉 PIT ST 过滤后 Sharpe 只有 0.375（§2d），且跑输可投资等权**。 +2. **风格暴露为主**：R² 0.86–0.88，收益主要是市场 beta + 低估值/低换手/低波风格；这类敞口可以用更便宜、更透明的方式获得（例如宽基+价值 ETF），没有必要为它承担单票 5% 的主动风险与运维风险。 +3. **样本局限**：101 只全部是深市 000xxx；无 ST 过滤；静态行业映射；无真正未使用过的 holdout（2020–2025 已被反复用于选择）。 +4. **正交 alpha 未找到**：5 个预注册候选全部不通过；目前没有证据表明这套框架能稳定跑赢同池等权。 +5. **运营尚未经历真实行情**：paper 台账用缓存数据回放；QMT/实时行情/对账链路虽已实现，但未在真实交易日验证。 + +## 4. 复核门槛（满足才重新评估） + +1. **Forward paper**：≥ 6 个月（至少 6 次月度调仓）真实行情跟踪，净成本 Sharpe ≥ 0.3，且成交/滑点与模型偏差在预设阈值内。 +2. **宽池复现**：≥ 300 只、含退市与 ST 历史的 PIT 股票池，同一流程复跑后，中性化超额仍为正且风格 alpha t ≥ 1.5。 +3. **正交性**：至少一个与风格因子正交的信号，在预注册检验中 alpha t ≥ 2 且 DSR p < 0.1，并能在 forward paper 中复现。 +4. **运营**：每日账实对账连续 5 个交易日一致；断线/重启恢复演练通过；Kill Switch 演练通过。 + +## 5. 如果仍要小资金试水（不推荐，但给出边界） + +- 资金上限：≤ 5 万元（可承受全损）； +- 单票 ≤5%、行业 ≤30%，月度调仓，不做日内； +- 先跑 3 个月 paper，再考虑 1 个月最小实盘； +- 任何一次对账不一致或回撤超过 25%，立即停止并复盘； +- 记录每笔成交与模型预期的偏差（TCA），作为后续校准输入。 + +## 6. 资产与复现 + +- 研究报告：`docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md`（含全部修正与评审处置） +- 目标组合：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.{json,csv}`（as_of 为缓存末日，非今日） +- Paper 台账：`docs/research/paper_track/`（单目标演示 + 2020–2025 滚动） +- 工具：`tools/real_data_research.py`、`tools/daily_signal.py`、`tools/paper_track.py`、`tools/fetch_universe.py` +- 评审：`.scratch/orchestrate/review_overfit_{leakage,statistics,backtest}.md`、`review_R19a..R27.md` + +## 7. 一句话给决策者 + +这套系统现在能**诚实地告诉你一个策略不值得投**——这本身就是它的价值。下一步不是加大杠杆，而是拿到更宽的数据、做真正的 forward 验证；在证据变强之前，现金是最好的仓位。 + +## 8. 未来 90 天执行计划（依据外部评审意见整理） + +| 阶段 | 任务 | 状态 / 验收 | +|---|---|---| +| 第 1–2 周 | 口径审计（标准 Sharpe/DSR/IR）；同池基准矩阵（日频等权 / 市值加权 / buy&hold）；估值可得性审计；历史数据缺陷台账 | ✅ 已完成（§2c + `DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md`） | +| 第 3–6 周 | 冻结现有策略并打 tag；成本压力测试（30/50bps 固定滑点）；forward paper 每日运行 | 冻结 ✅（`FREEZE_MANIFEST` + tag `forward-freeze-2026-10-23`）；成本压力测试进行中；paper 由计划任务每日更新 | +| 第 7–12 周 | 3 个月复核：标准 Sharpe、相对全部基准的超额、成交偏差（TCA）是否在阈值内；不达标即终止该策略版本 | 按 `FREEZE_MANIFEST` 的终止规则执行 | +| 并行（研究） | 只做**一个**新收益来源的预注册研究：ETF 轮动（动量/波动率目标）或可转债双低；数据先行（真实 ETF 净值/价格），不追新的股票因子 | ✅ ETF 轮动已完成：OOS Sharpe 0.733 但 2026 holdout −14.6% vs 等权 −8.9%，**按预注册冻结**（`ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`）；✅ 可转债双低已完成：开发期 Sharpe 1.10 → OOS **0.275**（转债等权 0.382）、2026 holdout −5.1% vs 基准 −4.3%，**按预注册放弃**（`CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`）；不再调参 | +| 并行（数据） | 补 PIT 财务（公告日）与含退市/ST 的宽池；按板块/ST 设置差异化涨跌停阈值 | 缺陷台账 #1/#2/#3/#5 关闭 | + +原则：**在纸面证据变强之前，不投真金白银；不再无限追加股票因子搜索。** diff --git a/docs/research/ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c198d6e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,90 @@ +# ETF 动量轮动：预注册研究结果（2026-10-25） + +> 结论先行：**按预注册规则判定为“冻结，不部署”。** 样本外（OOS 2020–2025）达标（净 Sharpe 0.733，跑赢全部基准），但 2026 真 holdout 明确失败（−14.6% vs 沪深300 −9.8%、等权 −8.9%，回撤 −30.7% vs −14.5%~−19.2%）。预注册 §7 规定“H1 成立但 H2 失败 → 冻结，不部署，等下一个 holdout”。不调参、不重试。 +> +> 预注册文件：`docs/research/PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md` + +## 1. 执行摘要 + +| 检验 | 预注册要求 | 结果 | 判定 | +|---|---|---|---| +| H1（OOS 2020-01-02..2025-12-31） | 净 Sharpe ≥ 0.5 且优于全部四个基准 | Sharpe **0.733**，CAGR 15.43%；HS300 0.153 / 等权 0.509 / 60-40 0.153 / 现金 0 | ✅ | +| H2（2026 holdout，193 个交易日） | 收益不低于 HS300 与等权，回撤不更深 | **−14.55%**（HS300 −9.78%，等权 −8.88%），MDD **−30.7%**（−19.2% / −14.5%） | ❌ | +| H3（成本压力 30/50bps） | 相对等权超额不翻转 | +3.29pp / +2.36pp（年化，仍为正） | ✅ | +| DSR（N=18 真实试验数） | 报告项 | p = **0.55**（不显著） | 警示 | +| 敏感性网格 | 默认配置不能是孤立显著点 | 6/12 个月动量 12 个配置 Sharpe 0.53–0.83，默认不是最高（k5 更高） | ✅ 非孤立 | +| 剔除 2020 | “结论是否仍在” | 策略 5.3%/Sharpe 0.214 vs 等权 3.8%/0.125；超额降至 +1.46pp/年 | ⚠️ 大部分超额来自 2020 | + +**最终判定：冻结。** 不进入 paper trading、不投真钱；该方向记为“一次已消耗的试验”，不再调参。 + +## 2. 数据与实现修订（预注册后、结果前发现，全部披露） + +本研究的第一次运行使用新浪**场内价格**构建总收益，出现两类错误，均已修正并复跑全部结果： + +1. **新浪价格未调整公司行为**：159928（消费ETF）2021-06-24 发生 1:4 份额折算（价格 4.93→1.23，成交量不变）；510500 2022-08-26 有大额分红未出现在新浪分红表中。这些日子的假跌 −74%/−12.7% 会同时污染动量信号与组合收益。 + - **修正**：改用东方财富官方**净值增长率**（`pingzhongdata` 的 `equityReturn`，已调整分红与份额折算）作为总收益序列；净值历史早于上市日的部分按首个场内报价日截断。回测按净值成交（未建模折溢价），这是本研究的已知理想化。 +2. **时间戳时区错误（严重）**：东财时间戳为北京时间零点，按 UTC 解析导致整条净值序列提前一天——等价于**一天前视**。用净值收益与场内收益的滞后相关检验发现（修正前 lag+1 相关 0.978、lag0 仅 −0.009；改为 +8h 后 lag0 0.967–0.98）。修正后重跑。 +3. **冲击成本在零/缺失成交额上爆炸**：向量冲击公式 `sqrt(notional/ADV)·vol` 在 `amount` 极小或缺失时给出天量成本（观察到单日 −15 倍组合收益，随机组合 Sharpe 假性 −0.39）。 + - **修正**：改用**因果 60 日中位成交额（shift 1）**作为 ADV，策略与基准同口径。修正后随机安慰剂恢复到合理区间（见 §6）。 + +以上均为数据/实现修复，**策略参数与验收标准未改动**。修订记录同步写入预注册 §9。 + +## 3. 样本外结果（2020-01-02..2025-12-31，1455 个交易日） + +| 组合 | CAGR | 波动 | 标准 Sharpe | MDD | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ETF 动量轮动（12-1，top3，逆波动率，40% 上限） | **15.43%** | 17.63% | **0.733** | −32.7% | +| 沪深300ETF buy&hold | 4.19% | 18.88% | 0.153 | −42.4% | +| 合格池月度等权（同成本） | 10.68% | 16.82% | 0.509 | −25.8% | +| 60/40（沪深300/现金） | 4.17% | 11.33% | 0.153 | −24.9% | +| 现金 3% | 3.05% | 0% | — | 0% | + +相对基准：vs HS300 年化超额 +10.0pp（IR 0.61）；vs 等权 +4.32pp（IR 0.30）；vs 60/40 +11.2pp（IR 0.79）。 + +**逐年收益**：2020 **+78.8%**、2021 −4.7%、2022 −15.5%、2023 +10.8%、2024 +26.0%、2025 +14.0%。月度换手 0.44，年化成本约 0.53%。 + +开发期（2013–2019，仅用于数据管线校验）：策略 Sharpe 0.260、CAGR 6.43%、MDD −47.5%，明显弱于等权（0.589 / 12.15% / −28.0%）——**同一策略在 2020 年前是失败的**，提示结果对市场环境高度依赖。 + +## 4. 2026 真 holdout（2026-01-01..2026-10-23，193 个交易日） + +| 组合 | 累计收益 | CAGR | 波动 | Sharpe | MDD | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ETF 动量轮动 | **−14.55%** | −18.56% | 30.31% | −0.625 | **−30.7%** | +| 沪深300ETF | −9.78% | −12.57% | 18.58% | −0.792 | −19.2% | +| 合格池等权 | −8.88% | −11.44% | 15.41% | −0.906 | −14.5% | +| 60/40 | −4.82% | −6.24% | 11.15% | −0.792 | −11.5% | + +策略在下跌市中**跌得更多**（动量在震荡下行中反复被“打脸”），波动 30% 远高于基准 15%–19%。H2 的三项要求（收益≥HS300、收益≥等权、回撤不更深）全部不满足。 + +## 5. 成本压力测试（OOS） + +| 成本 | CAGR | 标准 Sharpe | MDD | 年化超额 vs 等权 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 基线 impact（10bps 量级） | 15.43% | 0.733 | −32.7% | +4.32pp | +| 固定 30bps | 14.06% | 0.665 | −33.9% | +3.29pp | +| 固定 50bps | 12.86% | 0.606 | −35.0% | +2.36pp | + +月频、低换手（0.44/月）使策略对成本不敏感，H3 成立。但注意：2026 holdout 里**成本不再是问题，方向判断才是**。 + +## 6. 对抗性验证（模拟器是否可信） + +| 检查 | 结果 | 解读 | +|---|---|---| +| 510300 buy&hold 对账 | 净值口径 CAGR 4.19% vs 价格口径 2.38%（差≈分红） | 总收益构建合理 | +| 额外滞后一天信号 | Sharpe 0.733 → 0.637 | 无前视迹象（有前视会崩得更狠）；但也说明结果对一天的信息敏感、不稳健 | +| 随机 top-3 安慰剂（5 个种子） | 均值 0.411（区间 0.20–0.63），策略 0.733 | 动量选择相对随机有增量（+0.32），但随机组合本身也能接近等权 | +| 敏感性网格（18 组） | 3 个月动量 ≈0（−0.05~0.05）；6/12 个月动量 0.53–0.83 | 方向连贯、默认非孤立；但 DSR p=0.55 说明计入 18 次搜索后不显著 | + +## 7. 判定的含义 + +- **这不是“ETF 动量无效”的普遍结论**，而是“在 A 股这 15 只 ETF、2013–2026 样本上，按预注册的 12-1 动量实现，未通过 holdout”。2026 的失败与开发期（2013–2019）的失败同向：该信号在 A 股 ETF 上更像“2020–2025 的阶段性有效”，而非稳定溢价。 +- DSR 不显著 + 2020 一家贡献大部分超额 + 开发期失败 + holdout 失败，四个证据一致指向“不可部署”。按预注册，**不再调参重试**；若未来重启，应作为**新的预注册**（新假设、新 holdout），并优先考虑外部评审建议的可转债方向或更长样本。 +- 现有股票策略的 forward paper 不受影响；ETF 研究独立台账，未触碰冻结清单。 + +## 8. 产物与复现 + +- 预注册：`docs/research/PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md` +- 代码：`.scratch/orchestrate/etf_rotation.py`（build/rebuild/run/grid/stress/holdout）、`etf_fetch_nav.py`、`etf_validate.py` +- 数据：`.scratch/etf/{close,amount,dividends(废弃),nav_ret_*.parquet,tr_index,tr_returns}.parquet` +- 结果：`.scratch/etf/{default_results,stress_results,grid_results,holdout_results}.json`、`grid_daily.parquet` +- 运行环境：新浪日线（价格/成交额）+ 东方财富净值增长率；成本复用平台 `CostModel`；DSR 复用 `FactorValidator.deflated_sharpe_test`。 diff --git a/docs/research/EVALUATION_SPEC_2026-11.md b/docs/research/EVALUATION_SPEC_2026-11.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e33ce0d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/EVALUATION_SPEC_2026-11.md @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +# Forward 评估规范（预注册，2026-11-03） + +> 目的：把 2027-01（3 个月诊断）与 2027-04（6 个月裁决）评估固定为**可执行、无自由度**的规则。 +> 本文件在首次评估前冻结；哈希纳入 freeze_guard，评估前的任何口径变更都视为违规。 +> 与 `FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` §4 一致；若两者冲突，以本规范为准（清单将在下次追加时引用本文件）。 + +## 1. 评估时点 + +- **第一次（中期诊断，不裁决）**：2027 年 1 月最后一个交易所交易日收盘后（暂定 2027-01-29）。 +- **第二次（正式裁决）**：2027 年 4 月最后一个交易所交易日收盘后（暂定 2027-04-30）。 +- 2027 年交易日历待国务院公布后更新 `utils/exchange_calendar.py`；**只允许改日期，不允许改口径**。 +- 评估窗口：自 **2026-10-26**（首个台账日，建仓日）起至评估日（含）。所有收益从 10-26 收盘起算。 + +## 2. 数据来源 + +- 只用 `docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/nav.csv` 与 `forward_2026_turnover/nav.csv`（append-only，freeze_guard 钉住前缀哈希）。 +- **禁止引用 summary.json 的任何指标**（每次运行重写）；全部指标由 `tools/forward_evaluation.py` 从 nav.csv 重算。 +- 基准 B1 的重建允许读取 `.scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet`（截至评估日的历史收盘）与 Baostock `isST`（与研究期相同的 PIT 口径）。 + +## 3. 指标定义（唯一口径） + +| 指标 | 定义 | +|---|---| +| 日收益 r_t | nav_t / nav_{t-1} − 1（首日以 2,000,000 为基准） | +| 累计净收益 | nav_last / 2,000,000 − 1（须与 ∏(1+r_t)−1 一致，误差 ≤1e-9） | +| 年化收益 | (1+累计)^(252/n) − 1，n 为台账交易日数 | +| 年化波动 | std(r_t, ddof=1) × √252 | +| **夏普（主口径）** | √252 × mean(r_t) / std(r_t)，**无风险利率取 0**（窗口<1年，避免 rf 假设成为自由度） | +| 夏普（次口径） | 同上，rf=3%：√252 × (mean(r_t) − 0.03/252) / std(r_t)，仅作报告 | +| 最大回撤 | min(nav_t / cummax(nav)_t − 1) | +| **超额（主口径）** | 策略累计净收益 − 基准累计收益（同窗口、同日对齐） | +| 成本 | 策略为净（台账已扣成本）；基准为毛（等权按日收益复利，等价日度再平衡、无成本无分红再投资） | + +## 4. 基准（预注册两个，同 300 只股票池） + +- **主基准 B1：剔除当日 ST 的可投资等权**。ST 口径用 Baostock PIT `isST`（与研究期一致），由评估脚本重建。 +- **次基准 B2：不剔 ST 的等权**（即 nav.csv 里已记录的 benchmark 列，保持为记录口径）。 +- 不引入市值加权或其他基准：研究期用过的市值代理无法在台账中复现，引入即成为评估自由度。 + +## 5. 裁决规则（与清单 §4.5 一致） + +6 个月评估**同时满足**以下两条 → 保留策略并进入小资金试点；否则停止该策略的 forward 跟踪，转入新研究版本： + +1. 夏普（主口径）**≥ 0.2**； +2. 相对 **B1 与 B2 的超额均为正**。 + +- **3 个月评估只做诊断报告**（数字 + 95% 置信区间 + 成本偏差），**不授权终止、不授权改参**。 +- **多重性**：两个策略分别裁决、完整报告两者的全部指标，不允许只报表现好的一个。若两策略日收益相关系数 > 0.9，视为同一策略的两条腿，按联合结果裁决（任一失败即失败）。 + +## 6. 不确定性（必须写进报告） + +- 夏普近似标准误 ≈ √((1 + 0.5·SR²)/n)。n≈120 时 SE≈0.09——报告必须给出 95% CI，并明确写出"**通过门槛 ≠ 证明有效**"。 +- 报告每条台账的累计成本与换手次数；模拟执行以收盘价成交，真实滑点无法在台账中观测，须注明这是已知局限。 + +## 7. 交付物 + +- 报告由 `tools/forward_evaluation.py` 生成（脚本纳入 freeze_guard），内容固定为： + 两策略 × {累计、年化、波动、夏普（主/次）、最大回撤、超额 vs B1/B2、累计成本、换手}，附夏普 95% CI 与逐日曲线的数据附表。 +- 报告生成后记录哈希；**任何人不得在报告生成后修改口径或挑选指标**。 + +## 8. 变更规则 + +- 本规范在第一次评估前冻结。评估前任何口径变更 = 违规（freeze_guard 监测本文件哈希）。 +- 若 2027 年交易日历更新导致评估日期变动，只更新 §1 的日期并在清单追加记录，其余条款不动。 diff --git a/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5abd123 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,210 @@ +# 外部评审材料：A 股多因子量化平台与「低换手/价值」策略评估（2026-10-25） + +> **给评审者（ChatGPT）的说明** +> 这份文档是自包含的：不需要访问代码仓库，就能理解我们做了什么、得到了什么数字、结论是什么。 +> 想请你做三件事： +> 1. **挑方法错误**（前视、统计、成本、基准、执行假设、过拟合控制）； +> 2. **判断结论是否成立**（“这是风格暴露，不是已证实 alpha，不应实盘”）； +> 3. **给出下一步优先级**（继续研究 vs 换方向 vs 小资金试水）。 +> 请直言不讳，不要鼓励性回答。 + +--- + +## 1. 背景与目标 + +- 项目：一个个人开发的 A 股多因子量化平台（研究 → 回测 → 组合优化 → 执行 → 实盘接口）。 +- 最终目标：**能在市场上跑、能赚钱**；不是做一个好看的框架。 +- 约束：个人资金（百万人民币量级）、A 股制度（T+1、涨跌停、印花税、整手）、只能使用免费/可得数据、运行环境网络不稳定。 +- 本材料只讨论最近一轮（2026-10-22 ~ 10-25）的真实数据研究，不讨论平台的 Web/UI/工程细节。 + +## 2. 数据 + +| 数据集 | 池 | 区间 | 来源 | 说明 | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| A（101 池） | 101 只，全部 `000xxx` 深市主板 | 2018-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31 | Baostock 缓存 | 含 12 只区间内退市股；有 ST 历史缺失、无 PIT 财务面板 | +| B（宽池） | 300 只，沪 106 / 深主板 99 / 创业板 92 | 2018-01-02 ~ **2026-10-23** | 新浪（AKShare `stock_zh_a_daily`） | 只含当前上市股票（**0 退市股，幸存者偏差**）；后复权 | +| 估值 | 同 B | ~半月频 | 百度（AKShare `stock_zh_valuation_baidu`） | PE(TTM)、PB，按日 ffill（不 bfill） | + +**跨源校验**：A 与 B 重叠股票（6 只）日收益相关 ≥0.9994，换手率 1.000，volume/amount 1.0。 +**质量**：B 面板 563,782 行 × 300 只，close/volume/turnover 无缺失（上市前/停牌除外，占 12.2%），`pct_chg == close.pct_change()*100` 全样本最大误差 0。 + +## 3. 研究协议（这是评审重点） + +### 3.1 Walk-Forward + +- expanding 窗口：train 504 交易日，test 126，step 126；`purge_gap=5`、`embargo=5`。 +- 12 折，OOS = **2020-02-11 ~ 2025-12-31（1,433 个交易日）**。 +- **逐 fold 选因子**：每个 fold 只用训练窗（已剔除 embargo 日）的 Rank IC 做 t 检验 + BH-FDR；在通过校正的因子里按 |ICIR| 取 top-k；测试窗不参与选择。 +- 信号合成：IC 加权（权重带符号，负 IC 因子自动反向）。 +- 组合：MVO（cvxpy），单票上限 5%、行业上限 30%（真实静态行业映射）、换手上限 30%、成本惩罚 20bp + 二次换手罚 0.5、协方差 Ledoit-Wolf + PSD 加固、alpha 采用横截面 rank[-0.5,0.5]。 +- 执行：信号日次日**收盘**成交；同日涨跌停门禁（涨跌停用执行日当天 `|pct_chg|>9.8%` 近似）；停牌/不可交易阻断；**现金约束**（卖出被挡时买入按可用现金等比缩放，禁止隐性杠杆）。 + +### 3.2 成本 + +佣金 0.03%（每资产最低 5 元）、过户费 0.001%（双边）、印花税按法定日期（2023-08-28 后卖出 0.05%）、冲击成本平方根模型（`sqrt(参与率) × 波动率`，参与率用股数×原始价/成交额）。月度调仓。 + +### 3.3 统计 + +- Sharpe：平台口径 `(CAGR − 3%) / 年化波动`。 +- **DSR（Deflated Sharpe）**：输入用超额日收益（−3%/252），`num_trials` = **全家族真实搜索数 44–60**（不是单次 WF 内的 fold×因子数）。 +- 风格归因：策略日收益对 市场(EW) + 低换手 + 低波 + EP + 规模 五因子回归，报告 R²、alpha 年化与 t 值（Newey-West 稳健）。 +- 基准：同池日频等权（每日再平衡）与 constant-share buy&hold 两种，同 OOS 窗口。 + +## 4. 主要结果（净成本，OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31） + +### 4.1 101 池（Baostock） + +| 策略 | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (excess, N=48) | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| EP + 换手，行业中性（ep_turn_sector） | 0.490 | 10.77% | −19.09% | 0.831 | +| EP + 换手，行业+成交额中性 | 0.355 | 8.60% | −22.56% | 0.895 | +| 换手 60d，行业中性 | 0.429 | 9.54% | −19.97% | 0.864 | +| 低波组合，行业中性 | 0.577 | 12.02% | −17.61% | 0.781 | +| 同池日频等权基准 | 0.294 | 9.00% | −25.71% | — | + +### 4.2 宽池（300 只，跨板块，Sina） + +| 策略 | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (excess, N=58) | IR vs 同池 EW | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 换手 20d（plain） | 0.805 | 15.47% | −20.23% | 0.641 | **−0.044** | +| 换手 60d（plain） | 0.788 | 15.29% | −20.47% | 0.654 | −0.055 | +| 低波三因子 | 0.733 | 14.41% | −19.49% | 0.695 | −0.113 | +| 技术因子动物园（10 个，top2） | 0.563 | 11.93% | −21.87% | 0.806 | −0.282 | +| 换手 20d，行业中性 | 0.715 | 14.82% | −24.91% | 0.706 | −0.084 | +| 同池日频等权基准 | 0.493 | 14.44% | −32.28% | — | — | + +**关键矛盾**：宽池策略 Sharpe 高（0.805 vs 0.493），但**相对等权池的日超额信息比率 IR 为负**（−0.04 ~ −0.11），CAGR 仅高 0.03–1.08pp。即：优势主要来自**降波动**（策略波动 15.5–16.5% vs 等权 23.2%），不是更高的算术收益。 + +### 4.3 宽池 EP（价值因子） + +| 变体 | Sharpe | 年化 | DSR p (N=60) | 风格 alpha t | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| EP 单因子（行业中性） | 0.497 | 11.31% | 0.846 | −1.40 | +| EP + 换手（行业中性） | 0.674 | 14.08% | 0.740 | −0.62 | +| EP + 换手（行业+成交额中性） | 0.606 | 12.87% | 0.784 | −0.30 | +| 换手对照（plain） | 0.805 | 15.47% | 0.646 | −0.47 | + +结论：**EP 在宽池没有增量**，加入 EP 反而降低换手策略的表现。 + +### 4.4 风格归因 + +- 五因子回归 **R² = 0.86–0.88**；残余 alpha −1.0% ~ +2.6%/年，|t| ≤ 1.14（全部不显著）。 +- 13 个策略变体的日收益平均两两相关 **0.942**，有效独立试验数（参与率）≈ **1.1**——所谓“多参数都 0.6+”是同一个 bet 被测量多次。 + +### 4.5 PIT 大小盘拆分（宽池，2018–19 成交额分组，2020+ 评估） + +| 半池 | Sharpe | 基准 Sharpe | 差 | IR | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 大盘（成交额高半） | 0.819 | 0.487 | +0.332 | +0.070 | +| 小盘（成交额低半） | 0.635 | 0.572 | +0.063 | −0.252 | + +## 5. 真实前向：2026 年 holdout（关键证据） + +2026 年数据**从未参与任何因子/参数/组合选择**。用生产工具链（月末生成目标 → 次日收盘调仓 → 成本/现金约束/台账）对两个**冻结**策略做一次性评估： + +- 窗口 2026-02-02 ~ 2026-10-23（173 个交易日，9 次月度调仓），300 只宽池。 +- 成本口径同上；`paper_track` 自动用 `amount/volume` 作为原始价。 + +| 策略 | 总收益 | 年化 | 波动 | Sharpe | 最大回撤 | 成本 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 换手（生产口径：因子行业中性） | **−4.89%** | −7.05% | 17.53% | **−0.573** | **−17.54%** | 5,108.60 元 | +| EP+换手 | −8.49% | −12.13% | 17.22% | −0.878 | −19.33% | 4,334.61 元 | +| 同池日频等权基准 | −11.63% | −16.48% | — | −0.825 | −22.24% | — | + +**解读**：2026 是下跌市；两个策略都亏钱，但换手策略跑赢基准 +6.73pp、波动更低、回撤更浅。防御性风格 tilt 在真样本外延续，但**绝对收益为负**。 + +## 6. 对抗评审发现并修复的问题（说明结论已扣掉这些偏差） + +三份独立对抗评审（数据/前视、统计/过拟合、回测完整性）发现： + +| 问题 | 严重度 | 修复 | +|---|---|---| +| 涨跌停门禁用“次日收益”判定当日成交（一日前视） | BLOCKER | 改为执行日当天 `pct_chg`；重跑全部变体 | +| 低波因子用前向收益 `returns.rolling().std()` | MAJOR | 改为同日 `pct.rolling().std()` | +| 大小盘拆半用全样本平均成交额（分组前视） | MAJOR | 改为 2018–19 数据分组；结论方向反转（大盘更强） | +| 基准行错误（把超额当年化、标签写 buy&hold 实为日频等权） | MAJOR | 重算同窗口两口径：日频等权 0.294/9.00%/−25.71%；buy&hold 0.243/8.06%/−33.52% | +| DSR 用 gross 收益、trial 数严重低估（12–24 vs 真实 44–60） | MAJOR | 超额收益 + N=48/58/60；p 从 0.3 升到 0.64–0.89 | +| 卖出被门禁挡住时买入仍按目标执行 → gross>1（无融资成本杠杆） | BLOCKER | 引擎改为先卖后买、买入按可用现金缩放；真实数据 gross 最高 1.0000000000004 | +| 优化器静默回退等权（20% 调仓） | BLOCKER | cvxpy `psd_wrap` + PSD 加固；回退 0 | +| 回测把 z-score 喂 MVO（文档假设 rank alpha），风险厌恶口径不一致 | MAJOR | WF 增加 rank 归一化；生产工具同步 | +| 组合层行业上限被静默跳过（sector_map 传成单一 "A"） | MAJOR | 传真实行业映射；30% cap 真实生效（0 违规） | +| 回退计数器挂错 logger/大小写 → 永远 0 | MAJOR | 修计数器；用引擎 summary 交叉验证 | +| 目标组合首建换手 50% 绕过 30% 上限 | MINOR | 保留（平台引擎同口径）并显式警告 | + +修复后的完整数字见第 4/5 节；旧的高数字（Sharpe 0.67、p 0.33）**已作废**。 + +## 7. 其他已测试并否决的改进 + +| 方向 | 结果 | 结论 | +|---|---|---| +| 波动率目标（target vol 12%/15%） | 6 组仅 1 组过回撤门槛，信息比率不变 | 机械降杠杆，不采纳 | +| 市场趋势过滤（EW 指数 <200 日均线减半暴露） | 2020–25 Sharpe 0.683→0.527；2026 −0.57→−1.14 | 无效 | +| 等权 top-N / 信号比例 / 风险平价替代 MVO | 换手 3.4–4×、回撤差 2.8–7.2pp | 全部不合格，保留 MVO | +| 5 个预注册正交因子（彩票、异质波动、Amihud、隔日收益、异常成交量） | 0/5 通过；与现有策略日收益相关 0.94–0.98 | 退化为同一多头篮子 | +| 成交额代理 size 中性化 | Sharpe 0.67→0.29 | 代理与换手共线，过度控制；真实市值中性化缺数据 | + +## 8. 容量（估算，非精确） + +- EP+换手、OOS 2020–2025：AUM 200 万 Sharpe 0.565、2,000 万 0.565、1 亿 0.542、2 亿 0.485、5 亿 0.420（容量估计器内部基础成本可能回退固定滑点，已有披露）。 +- 个人资金（百万到千万）容量不构成约束。 + +## 9. 当前部署决策 + +**不投真金白银。** 理由： +1. 计入真实搜索数后 DSR p = 0.64–0.89，全部不显著；残余 alpha t ≤ 1.14。 +2. 收益主体是市场 beta + 低估值/低换手/低波风格；这类敞口可用更便宜透明的 ETF 获得。 +3. 样本局限：宽池无退市股；101 池只有深市 000xxx；静态行业映射；2026 前无真正未使用的 holdout。 +4. 2026 真 holdout 绝对收益仍为负（虽然跑赢基准）。 + +**已启动的 forward paper（不动钱）**： +- 两个冻结策略（EP+换手、行业中性换手），月末自动换仓，每工作日收盘后自动抓数据并更新台账。 +- 复核门槛（写入决策备忘）：≥6 个月真实前向、净成本 Sharpe ≥0.3 且成交偏差可控；≥300 只含退市/ST 的 PIT 池复现；至少一个正交信号 alpha t≥2 且 DSR p<0.1；对账/Kill Switch 演练通过。 + +## 10. 已知限制（可能导致结论偏差的方向） + +1. **幸存者偏差**：宽池只有当前上市股票（0 退市）；101 池含 12 只退市股，但只有深市 000xxx。 +2. **无 ST 历史**（宽池）；A 股 ST 股 5% 涨跌停未建模（用 9.8% 近似）。 +3. **估值频率**：PE/PB 半月频 ffill（最多约 3 周旧值）。 +4. **行业映射静态最新**（轻度前视）。 +5. **执行假设**：次日收盘成交、无盘中路径、无集合竞价、冲击模型参数硬编码未用实盘 TCA 校准。 +6. **回测成本**：佣金/印花税接近真实；滑点模型可能低估或高估（impact vs fixed 结果几乎一致，说明策略换手低、成本不是主要矛盾）。 +7. **样本长度**：OOS 1,433 天、12 折；2026 holdout 只有 173 天、9 次调仓，单条路径。 +8. **多重检验**：44–60 个配置；虽然 DSR 已校正，但跨研究阶段（不同 batch）的选择无法完全追溯。 + +## 11. 想请外部评审回答的问题 + +1. 以这些证据，“风格暴露而非 alpha、不应实盘”的结论是否成立？有没有方法上的漏洞会让真实结果更好或更差？ +2. DSR 的 trial 计数应该怎么算才合理（44？60？按家族 6–14？）？我们取 44–60 是否过严/过松？ +3. 2026 holdout 是在看到 2020–2025 结果后跑的，但 2026 数据从未参与选择——这种 holdout 的效力如何评估？ +4. 同池日频等权作为基准是否公平？是否应该用中证 500/1000、市值加权或 buy&hold？基准选择会如何改变结论？ +5. 如果目标改为“个人小资金实盘”，在现有证据下你会不会投？如果会，仓位/停止规则是什么？如果不会，缺的那一步是什么？ +6. 下一步优先级：A) 继续等 forward paper；B) 引入新数据（PIT 财务、资金流、北向、龙虎榜）；C) 换策略类型（事件驱动/日内）；D) 承认这是研究平台、不追实盘。你会怎么排？ +7. 有没有我们没测、但在 A 股零售规模下更可能有真实 edge 的方向（例如小市值+流动性、可转债、ETF 轮动、打新、分红再投资）？ + +## 12. 关键文件索引（仓库内） + +- 研究报告：`docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md` +- 决策备忘：`docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md` +- 通宵总结：`docs/research/OVERNIGHT_SUMMARY_2026-10-25.md` +- 目标组合：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23*.{json,csv}` +- 前向台账：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026*` +- 运维手册：`docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` §13 +- 三份对抗评审报告：`.scratch/orchestrate/review_overfit_{leakage,statistics,backtest}.md` + +--- + +_本材料由项目作者与 Claude 共同整理，2026-10-25。所有数字均可在仓库内复现；欢迎指出错误。_ + +## 13. 外部评审处置（2026-10-25 当天完成） + +| 评审要求 | 处置 | 结果 | +|---|---|---| +| 统一 Sharpe/DSR/IR 口径 | 重算全部已存序列；今后以标准年化 Sharpe 为主 | 标准口径比平台自定义高 0.03–0.05，结论不变（报告 §20） | +| 基准矩阵 | 同池日频等权 / 市值加权 / buy&hold / 60-40 | 策略只与日频等权接近（15.5% vs 15.3%），相对市值加权与 buy&hold 的优势来自低波防御（§20） | +| 估值可得性（PIT） | 隐含 EPS 跳变月份审计 | 部分符合财报季，不能证明未回填；EP 按“未过 PIT 审查”对待 | +| 成本压力测试 | 同一冻结策略跑 impact 10bps / 固定 30bps / 固定 50bps | Sharpe 0.474→0.441→0.415；**相对等权累计超额 +2.4%→−2.4%→−6.0%，净优势消失**（§21） | +| 冻结策略 + 终止标准 | `FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` + tag `forward-freeze-2026-10-23` | 已完成；3/6 个月复核 | +| 历史数据缺陷清单 | `DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md`（15 项） | 四项会改变方向性结论的缺陷已标注（幸存者/ST/估值 PIT/行业） | +| 只做一个新收益来源（ETF 轮动或可转债） | ETF 动量轮动**预注册**研究（真实净值数据） | OOS Sharpe 0.733、跑赢全部基准；**2026 holdout −14.6% vs 等权 −8.9%、MDD −30.7% → 按预注册冻结，不部署**（`ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`） | + +当前状态：股票策略继续 forward paper（冻结版）；ETF 方向冻结；不投真钱。下一阶段按 90 天计划执行（`DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md` §8）。 diff --git a/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_ROUND2_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_ROUND2_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..82176b8 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_ROUND2_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,148 @@ +# 第二轮外部评审材料（2026-10-25） + +> 给 ChatGPT：这是一份自包含材料，不需要仓库访问。请直接回答第 7 节的 10 个问题。第 6 节是我们自己列出的备选路径。所有数字均来自真实数据（新浪 / Baostock / 东方财富），没有模拟或编造。 + +## 1. 背景 + +- 目标：A 股、个人资金（≤50 万人民币）、单机 Python 平台，最终要**投真钱并赚钱**。不是框架演示。 +- 平台已有：数据管道（Baostock/Tushare/Sina）、多因子、成本感知 MVO、Walk-Forward（purge/embargo）、真实成本（佣金/印花税/冲击）、现金约束与涨跌停门禁、QMT 实盘接口、每日对账、forward paper 台账。 +- 约束：只用免费数据源（新浪、Baostock、东方财富）；不接受付费数据（至少目前）；一台 Windows 机器；不做日内高频。 +- 上一轮外部评审的核心意见：**别再无限追 alpha**；统一 Sharpe/DSR 口径；做基准矩阵、成本压力测试、数据缺陷清单；冻结策略，设定终止标准；下一个新收益来源考虑 ETF 轮动或可转债；拿到 6 个月真实 forward 记录前不投真钱。 + +## 2. 上一轮评审之后我们做了什么 + +| 评审要求 | 完成情况 | +|---|---| +| 统一 Sharpe/DSR/IR 口径 | ✅ 全部已存序列重算；标准 Sharpe 比原平台口径高 0.03–0.05，DSR 内部本来就是标准口径，结论不变 | +| 基准矩阵 | ✅ 同池日频等权 / 市值加权 / buy&hold / 60-40；策略只在“收益接近等权、波动更低”这一意义上占优 | +| 成本压力测试 | ✅ 30/50bps 固定滑点：净 Sharpe 0.474→0.441→0.415；相对等权的全期累计超额 +2.4%→−2.4%→−6.0%（净优势消失） | +| 冻结 + 终止标准 | ✅ 清单（sha256）+ tag；评估节点 3/6 个月 | +| 数据缺陷清单 | ✅ 15 项；其中估值 PIT、PIT ST、分板块涨跌停已复核 | +| 一个新收益来源 | ✅ ETF 动量轮动**预注册**后完整测试：OOS 达标、2026 holdout 失败 → 按预注册冻结 | +| 不投真钱 | ✅ 维持 | + +## 3. 关键数字（全部真实数据，净成本） + +### 3.1 股票多因子（101 只深市主板，冻结策略定义，OOS 2020-02-11~2025-12-31） + +| 口径 | 标准年化 Sharpe | CAGR | MDD | DSR p（N=48） | 相对基准累计超额 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 原版（无 ST 过滤） | 0.474 | 9.27% | −21.1% | 0.873 | +2.4%（vs 全样本等权） | +| 成本压力 30bps | 0.441 | 8.72% | −21.3% | 0.889 | −2.4% | +| 成本压力 50bps | 0.415 | 8.31% | −21.5% | 0.899 | −6.0% | +| PIT ST：仅禁止买入 ST | 0.382 | 7.80% | −20.6% | 0.912 | −10.4%（vs 全样本等权） | +| PIT ST：完整 ST 政策 + 可投资基准 | **0.375** | 7.71% | −20.3% | 0.915 | **−11.2%（vs 剔除 ST 的等权）** | + +参照基准同窗口：全样本日频等权 CAGR 9.30%、Sharpe 0.390；**剔除 ST 后可投资等权 CAGR 10.90%、Sharpe 0.453**。101 只中 22 只出现过 ST，共 7,859 个“股票×交易日”（如 000005 于 2021-05~2024-04、000410 于 2019-08~2023-05，与公开历史一致）。 + +结论：原版“接近等权”的微弱优势很大一部分来自 ST 暴露；生产链路本来就过滤 ST，所以可部署策略的真实历史表现是 Sharpe≈0.38、跑输可投资等权约 2pp/年。 + +### 3.2 宽池价值因子（297 只，60/00/30，2018–2025） + +- 同池基准：日频等权 CAGR 15.3%、市值加权 8.6%、buy&hold 13.2%；换手策略 15.5%，收益与等权接近、波动显著更低。 +- 估值 PIT 复核：用 Baostock 日频 peTTM/pbMRQ（99.97% 覆盖）替换百度半月频估值，EP 平均 Rank IC 0.0196→0.0204；变体 A Sharpe 0.497→0.479、B 0.674→0.644（同窗口基准 0.493）。**“EP 无增量、换手单因子更强（D 0.805）”的结论不是估值回填造成的。** +- 分板块涨跌停阈值（92 只创业板用 19.8% 而非 9.8%）：B 0.674→0.656、D 0.805→0.805，结论不变。 + +### 3.3 ETF 动量轮动（预注册，15 只流动性好的 ETF） + +| 检验 | 结果 | +|---|---| +| OOS 2020–2025 | 净 Sharpe **0.733**、CAGR 15.43%、MDD −32.7%；沪深300 0.153 / 等权 0.509 / 60-40 0.153 | +| 成本压力 30/50bps | Sharpe 0.665 / 0.606；相对等权年化超额 +3.3pp / +2.4pp（不翻转） | +| 2026 真 holdout（193 日） | **−14.55%**，等权 −8.88%、沪深300 −9.78%；MDD **−30.7%**，基准 −14.5%~−19.2% → H2 失败 | +| 敏感性网格（18 组） | 6/12 个月动量 0.53–0.83，方向连贯、默认非孤立；DSR p=0.55（N=18，不显著） | +| 对抗检查 | 随机 top-3 安慰剂 0.41 vs 策略 0.73；额外滞后一天 0.64；无前视迹象 | +| 稳健性 | 开发期 2013–2019 策略 Sharpe 0.260 vs 等权 0.589；OOS 超额大部分来自 2020（+78.8%） | + +按预注册规则：**冻结，不部署，不调参**。 + +### 3.4 2026 股票 holdout：ST 污染发现与修正（已重跑完成） + +原 2026 holdout（2026-02~10，宽池生产链路）：换手策略 −4.89%，全样本等权 −11.63%，**+6.73pp 超额**。 + +核对发现：这份 holdout 的月度目标每个月都持有 **3–6 只 ST、权重 7%–13%**（当时的 `daily_signal.py` 没有 ST 过滤）。用 PIT ST 名单重跑同一条生产链路后： + +| 序列 | 总收益 | 年化 | Sharpe | MDD | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 换手策略（ST 过滤后） | **−8.80%** | −12.55% | −0.817 | **−18.6%** | +| 换手策略（原始，含 ST） | −4.89% | — | −0.573 | −17.5% | +| 全样本等权 | −11.63% | −16.57% | −0.773 | −22.2% | +| 剔除 ST 的等权（可投资基准） | −11.13% | −15.88% | −0.728 | −22.4% | +| EP+换手（ST 过滤后） | −10.43% | −14.82% | −1.024 | −20.0% | + +解读：原始 +6.73pp 超额约**一半来自 ST 暴露**；修正后换手策略仍比两个基准少跌 **2.3–2.8pp**、回撤更浅，但 Sharpe 反而更差（负收益窗口里低波动会压低 Sharpe）。EP+换手弱于基准。也就是说“防御性 tilt”在 2026 仍然存在，但强度明显小于原报告，且不构成正收益。 + +### 3.5 实盘 forward paper + +- v1 的 2026-10-23 目标 40 只持仓中有 5 只 ST；已修复并重建 v2（37 只 / 33 只，均无 ST），v1 保留在 `superseded/`。 +- 生产工具已加 ST 过滤并在**快照失败时拒绝生成目标**（fail closed）；单元测试通过。 +- 台账尚未开始（首个执行日 2026-10-26 周一）；评估节点 3/6 个月，终止标准：6 个月时标准 Sharpe<0.2 或相对全部基准无正超额。 + +## 4. 数据缺陷现状 + +| # | 缺陷 | 状态 | +|---|---|---| +| 1 | 宽池无退市股（幸存者偏差） | 未解决。探测：2018/2021 存在、2026 已退市的 60/00/30 股票有 241 只，Baostock 可抓历史；但**退市股无行业分类**，sector-neutral 与行业上限无法干净复现 | +| 2 | 宽池无 ST 历史 | 部分解决：101 池已用 PIT isST 复核；宽池只有 2026 年的 ST 快照 | +| 3 | 估值可得时间 | 已复核，结论稳健 | +| 4 | 行业映射静态最新 | 未解决；免费源没有历史行业分类 | +| 5 | 涨跌停 9.8% 近似 | 已复核（分板块阈值），影响可忽略；ST 5% 与盘口可成交性仍未建模 | + +## 5. 我们现在的判断 + +- 股票多因子：在成本压力与 PIT ST 修正后，**没有可部署的净优势**；继续调参只会增加试验次数、降低 DSR。 +- ETF 动量：OOS 与 holdout 结论矛盾，按预注册冻结。 +- 因此：**不投真钱**，只保留 forward paper 作为真实记录；同时只开**一个**新研究方向（可转债双低），不再并行挖股票因子。 + +## 6. 备选路径（请你评估优先级） + +- **A. 停手**：不再开新研究，只跑 forward paper 3–6 个月，等真实记录。 +- **B. 可转债双低**（已写预注册，数据抓取中）：双低 = 价格 + 转股溢价率，月度 top20 等权；数据来自东财，含历史收盘价、转股价值、纯债价值、纯债溢价率、转股溢价率；但**无成交量/成交额**，评级只有发行时评级，强赎只能用“转股价值≥130 占最近 30 日 15 天”代理。 +- **C. 补数据**：退市股 + 行业历史 + 公告日财务。问题是免费源拿不到历史行业分类，退市股也没有行业；补完也只能做受限对照。 +- **D. 其他方向**（请你建议）：个人小资金、A 股、免费数据、非高频。 + +## 7. 想请你明确回答的问题 + +1. 在成本压力与 PIT ST 修正后，股票策略已无净优势。你是否同意“**停止该线研究、只保留 forward paper 作为记录**”？还是认为其中还有值得救的部分？ +2. 2026 holdout 的原始 +6.73pp 超额含 7–13% ST 权重（重跑中）。如果重跑后超额也消失，是否意味着这套“防御性风格”完全没有部署价值？如果重跑后仍有正超额，你会如何看待它与 2020–2025 结论的矛盾？ +3. 可转债双低的预注册设计是否合理？特别是：无成交量数据（只能用固定滑点）、只用发行时评级、强赎代理规则、发行规模≥3 亿、价格≤150、top20 等权、月度调仓。哪些是**致命缺陷**，哪些可以接受？ +4. 以我们这种免费数据条件，可转债研究的最小可信数据要求是什么？是否必须付费数据（Tushare/聚宽/万得）才能做？如果必须，是否干脆不做？ +5. 我们的验收标准（OOS 净 Sharpe≥0.5、holdout 不输基准、30/50bps 压力下超额不翻转、DSR N=12）是否过松或过严？3/6 个月的 forward 评估是否太短？应该用什么统计量（配对检验？最小可检测效应？）？ +6. 对个人资金（≤50 万），到底需要多强的证据才值得投真钱？是否存在“永远 paper-only、永远不投”的风险？应该如何设定一个**有限成本的学习性实盘**（例如 1–5 万元）？ +7. 是否应该彻底停止新研究、把精力放在数据上（退市股、行业历史、PIT 财务）？还是数据升级的边际价值也很低、不如直接接受“没有 alpha”？ +8. 有没有我们没考虑过的、更适合个人/小资金/免费数据的方向？（ETF 轮动已失败；可转债在计划中；股票多因子证据为负。） +9. 如果只能做三件事，未来 30 天的优先级是什么？请给出排序和理由。 +10. 我们是否在某个地方犯了系统性错误（口径、样本、基准、数据）而自己没有意识到？请直接指出。 + +## 8. 约束条件 + +- 资金：个人 ≤50 万人民币；可承受全损；不做杠杆、不做空。 +- 市场：A 股（股票、ETF、可转债）；不做期货/期权/港股通。 +- 数据：免费源（新浪、Baostock、东方财富）；网络不稳定；单机；Python。 +- 人力：一个 agent + 一位非全职用户；研究周期以周计，不能做需要全天候盯盘的东西。 +- 合规：不使用未授权的数据或接口；不做高频/抢跑。 + +## 9. 关键文件（仓库内） + +- `docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md` §20–25（口径、基准、成本压力、PIT 估值、PIT ST、实盘目标修复） +- `docs/research/ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md` / `PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md` +- `docs/research/PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md` +- `docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md`（含 90 天计划） +- `docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md`（v2） +- `docs/research/DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md` + +## 10. 补记：可转债双低已按预注册跑完（2026-10-25 晚） + +在把本材料发出去之前，我们按预注册把可转债双低也跑完了（数据 1,048 只，2019–2026）： + +| 检验 | 结果 | +|---|---| +| 开发期 2019–2022 | Sharpe **1.099**、CAGR 18.6%、超额 +4.1pp vs 转债等权 | +| OOS 2023–2025 | Sharpe **0.275**、CAGR 5.40%；转债等权 0.382、沪深300 0.265、60-40 0.264 | +| 成本压力 30/50bps | Sharpe 0.138 / −0.014；相对转债等权超额 −2.4pp / −3.7pp | +| 2026 holdout | **−5.13%** vs 转债等权 −4.34%、沪深300 −12.98% | +| 敏感性网格（18 组） | k=30 邻域最高 0.51，但 DSR p≈0.92–0.99，全部不显著 | + +按预注册 §8：H1/H2/H3 全部不成立 → **放弃该方向，不调参**。开发期的强势与 OOS 的断裂非常典型，说明双低在 2019–2021 转债牛市里有效、2022 年信用风险事件后失效（或已拥挤）。因此第 7 节的问题 3 现在有了实证答案：预注册设计本身可执行，是信号没有通过样本外，而不是数据缺陷导致无法检验。 + +这也意味着我们目前的结论是：**股票多因子、ETF 动量、可转债双低三条线都没有通过真 holdout**。请据此回答第 7 节的问题——尤其是“是否应该彻底停手、只跑 forward paper”和“个人小资金需要什么证据才值得投真钱”。 diff --git a/docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d28e2dd --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,193 @@ +# 策略冻结清单（2026-10-25） + +- 仓库提交：`a1c3dc2`（v1）；后续修正见 §5（v2）与 §6（v3，当前有效） +- 生成时间：2026-10-25 14:18（v1）；v2 2026-10-25 16:10；v3 2026-10-26 + +## 1. 冻结的两个 forward 策略 + +| 策略 | 因子 | 组合约束 | v1 目标文件 sha256[:16]（已 superseded） | +|---|---|---|---| +| EP+换手 | ep,turnover20d（行业中性化） | MVO，单票5%，行业30% | `2f85b5c029e6eaf8` | +| 换手单因子 | turnover20d（行业中性化） | MVO，单票5%，行业30% | `b8067856456be21a` | + +## 2. 代码与配置版本（sha256[:16]） + +| 文件 | 哈希 | +|---|---| +| `tools/daily_signal.py` | `b602dc538a22e25b` | +| `tools/paper_track.py` | `1bad2b0c6bd97be8` | +| `config/default.yaml` | `4422d2cdca99a719` | +| `backtest/engine.py` | `77f107ad82eeffef` | +| `backtest/walkforward.py` | `ff513b393448f260` | +| `research/validation.py` | `ff726fdf020ab8a6` | +| `portfolio/optimizers.py` | `56a41be56075cb1b` | + +## 3. 数据版本 + +- 合并面板：`.scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet`，563782 行 × 300 只，2018-01-02..2026-10-23 +- 价格源：新浪 `stock_zh_a_daily`（后复权，2018-01-02 起）；估值源：百度 PE(TTM)/PB（半月频，按日 ffill） +- 抓取与合并脚本：`.scratch/orchestrate/forward_update.py`、`fetch_sina_2026.py`、`fetch_baidu_valuation.py` + +## 4. 冻结与变更规则（预注册） + +1. 自本清单生成起，上述两个策略的参数、因子定义、组合约束、成本模型不得修改；任何修改必须建立新版本（新目标目录、新台账、新清单），不得覆盖旧记录。 +2. 执行规则固定：目标 as_of 为交易所月末最后交易日；执行日为下一交易日收盘；成本口径见 `docs/OPS_RUNBOOK.md` §13。 +3. 每个交易日收盘后由 `quant-forward-paper-daily` 任务更新台账；不得因短期表现调整策略。 +4. 预注册评估节点：满 3 个月、6 个月各做一次一次性评估，报告内容固定为：净收益、标准年化 Sharpe、相对同池等权/市值加权/buy&hold 的超额、最大回撤、成交与成本偏差；评估前不得改参。 +5. 终止标准：若 6 个月评估时标准 Sharpe < 0.2 或相对全部基准无正超额，停止该策略的 forward 跟踪，转入新研究版本。 + +## 5. v2 —— ST 过滤修复（2026-10-25） + +**触发原因（缺陷修复，非业绩驱动）**：v1 目标由 `daily_signal.py` 生成，但该工具没有任何 ST 过滤；核对 Baostock 2026-10-23 的 `isST` 发现 v1 的 40 只持仓中有 5 只是 ST（002168、002650、300419、603189、603825），与生产口径“ST 不进买入池”不符。 + +**修复**： +- `tools/daily_signal.py` 新增 `--exclude-codes-file`（PIT 排除名单），并在 `provenance/diagnostics` 记录排除名单与实际剔除的代码；`_normalize_code` 支持 `sh600053/600053.SH` 形式。 +- `forward_update.py` 在每次月末生成目标前抓取新浪全市场快照，生成当日 ST 名单并传入；抓取失败会显著记录并**拒绝**把“无 ST 过滤”的目标当作合规目标。 +- 两个 2026-10-23 目标已用 **2026-10-23 的 PIT ST 名单**重建（排除上述 5 只）；v1 文件保留在各自 `superseded/target_2026-10-23_v1_no_st_filter.json`（子目录不在 `paper_track` 的 targets 扫描范围内，避免同一 as_of 重复读入），不覆盖、不删除。 + +**v2 哈希（sha256[:16]）**： + +| 文件 | 哈希 | +|---|---| +| `tools/daily_signal.py`（v2） | `78d48e763aabe3f0`（修 `600053.SH` 后缀解析后；重生成目标权重逐字节一致） | +| 换手目标 `target_2026-10-23.json`（v2） | `afbe650fa8525417` | +| EP+换手目标 `target_2026-10-23.json`（v2） | `b69e05d89324bbc0` | +| PIT ST 名单 `st_codes_2026-10-23.txt` | `bee723388c0e953d` | +| 换手目标 v1（保留） | `b8067856456be21a` | +| EP+换手目标 v1（保留） | `2f85b5c029e6eaf8` | + +**状态**：forward 台账尚未开始（无 NAV 记录），因此 v2 作为**起点**，不构成对已跟踪记录的事后修改。评估节点仍为满 3/6 个月；参数与规则不变。新 tag：`forward-freeze-2026-10-25`（v1 tag `forward-freeze-2026-10-23` 保留）。 + +**已知残余**：v2 的 ST 名单来自 2026-10-23 的 Baostock `isST`；今后每日任务用当日新浪快照（名称含 ST），两者口径在“当日是否 ST”上一致，但供应商切换会导致名单边界略有差异，属可接受运维误差。 + +## 6. v3 —— 完整 ST 快照与首日执行防护（2026-10-26，当前有效） + +**触发原因（仍是缺陷修复，非业绩驱动）**：v2 只排除了 v1 持仓中的 5 只 ST，没有排除候选池中其余 ST。逐一读回 300 只股票的 PIT `isST` 后，2026-10-23 实际有 **13 只** ST；遗漏的 8 只为 002055、002198、002717、002822、300087、301030、603008、603359。v2 未产生任何真实 NAV，因此不得作为 forward 起点。 + +**处置**： +- 用完整 13 只名单重建两个目标：换手 **33 只**、EP+换手 **32 只**，均无当日 ST；v2 JSON/CSV 与旧 ST 文件已保留在 `superseded/`。 +- `daily_signal --exclude-codes-file` 现在拒绝空文件、空列表、null/浮点数/对象及非六位代码；`forward_update` 拒绝空/候选池覆盖不全的快照，并禁止把当日快照用于历史目标。 +- `paper_track` 拒绝首日零成交时发布全现金台账；零金额买入不再生成幽灵持仓。 +- 回测冲击成本增加无效 ADV 的固定滑点回退，并改用 60 日中位成交额（shift 1）；这是工程正确性修正，不改变因子、参数或组合约束。 + +**v3 当前有效哈希（sha256[:16]）**： + +| 文件 | 哈希 | +|---|---| +| 换手目标 `target_2026-10-23.json` | `738fca0071edbc99` | +| EP+换手目标 `target_2026-10-23.json` | `e466c21411405372` | +| 完整 ST 名单 `st_codes_2026-10-23.txt` | `b42b7ab7a67a28f6` | +| `tools/daily_signal.py` | `d353668be760cba2` | +| `tools/paper_track.py` | `ef4d8323d38375e6` | +| `tools/forward_update.py` | `d50ec0fdee52a436` | +| `backtest/engine.py` | `324b29c392994090` | +| `backtest/cost_model.py` | `69e1f38af626c36f` | + +**状态**：截至 v3 生成，正式 forward 台账仍无 NAV；v3 是唯一有效起点。3/6 个月评估节点与终止标准不变。 + +## 7. v3.1 —— 月末运维加固（2026-10-28） + +**触发原因（仍是运维缺陷修复，非业绩驱动）**：2026-10-30 是 10 月最后一个交易日，即首次真实月末换仓。旧流程有两处会把正常情况判成致命错误： + +1. `current_st_codes()` 只抓一次新浪全市场快照；该接口当天多次瞬时 `IndexError`（2026-10-28 09:38–10:01 连续失败 3 次）。月末快照失败就拒绝生成目标，且之后补生成历史月末又必须使用「快照日期 == 目标 as_of」的当日名单，11 月换仓会卡死。 +2. `refetch()` 把「响应停在昨日」一律记为失败；而月末只要有 1 只资产失败就整体拒绝。停牌股（如 002717）停牌期间每天都被判为 stale_response，月末换仓会被长期停牌股误杀。 + +**修复**： + +- ST 快照抓取每次 90 秒墙钟超时（akshare 分页请求无超时，可能永久挂住），至多 2 次尝试；失败结果在进程内记忆 10 分钟，避免嵌套重试放大成多次全市场分页。每个进程至多一次成功全市场分页并缓存复用。 +- ST 快照全量失败时，若当日已有**同日**成功快照（只有当日全量覆盖校验通过才会写入该文件），复用并明确记录；否则维持 fail closed，绝不使用非当日名单。复用前重新校验文件形状（六位代码、数量 ≥ max(10, 股票池 10%)）。 +- ST 名单增加合理性下限（覆盖资产的 0.5%）；空名单/名称列异常的帧按抓取失败处理。 +- `refetch()` 结束后，用实时快照对**所有失败资产**做停牌确认。快照必须同时满足：全市场帧（≥100 个代码）、≥50% 的代码当日有成交、该代码所有行（含重复行）当日成交量恰为 0 且无缺失值、重分类数量不超过上限（≥10）。任何一项不满足都维持失败（fail closed）；零成交量或部分陈旧的降级快照无法把失败列表清空而绕过月末门禁。 +- **月末交易日开跑即先抓当日 ST 名单**（在 refetch 和所有数据门禁之前落盘，且异常不会中断后续刷新）。这样即使门禁失败退出 2，之后的运行仍能用「快照日期 == 该月末」的名单补生成目标；否则 11 月换仓会永久卡死（对抗审查发现的阻断级缺陷）。 +- 补生成场景也适用月末门禁：只要存在可补生成（当日 PIT 名单已在）的历史月末缺失目标，任何资产刷新失败都视为月末信号失败。 +- 目标文件只认「可解析、`as_of` 与文件名一致、权重非空」的版本；损坏/截断的目标会被重新生成，overdue 扫描忽略损坏文件。`daily_signal` 输出改为临时文件 + 原子替换，进程被杀不会留下半截目标。 +- 台账重建与目标生成解耦：月度目标被拒时仍照常重建当日台账（paper_track 按现有持仓估值；后续运行会重建全部日期）。 + +**残余风险**：实时快照帧的 `时间戳` 列只有时间、没有日期，无法可靠判断帧是否属于当天；若数据商给出的是盘中较早时刻的陈旧帧（仍有相当比例代码有成交），停牌复核无法识别其陈旧性。影响面被三道限制约束：50% 活跃度门、重分类数量上限（≥10）、以及「快照显示有成交即判失败」的保守方向。该残余只影响停牌判定的准确性，不会让错误价格进入台账（失败资产要么保留缓存收盘价、要么照常阻塞月末）。 + +**不变**：因子、参数、组合约束、成本模型、执行规则、台账目录均未改动；v3 目标与已生成台账不受影响。2026-10-28 用 `--skip-refetch` 在生产路径重建两份台账，输出与修复前逐字节一致（NAV 1,952,009.91 / 1,956,791.96）。 + +**v3.1 哈希（sha256[:16]）**： + +| 文件 | 哈希 | +|---|---| +| `tools/forward_update.py`（v3.1） | `5c0b973724947ce5` | +| `tools/daily_signal.py`（v3.1，原子输出） | `ee4773925b1a7d5f` | + +其余 v3 冻结哈希不变（见 §6）。相关回归：`tests/test_tools` 176 项通过（含 15 项新增故障注入用例）；2026-10-28 用 v3 的 13 只 ST 名单在 scratch 完成月末目标生成演练（权重和=1、单票≤5%、无 ST、无未来数据）。两轮独立对抗审查（1 个阻断级 + 5 个重要级 + 若干次要问题）已全部修复或记录为残余风险。 + +## 8. 深度过拟合审计与处置（2026-10-28） + +独立审计（只读 subagent）对冻结前向管线做了未来信息注入、可复现性、台账数学与评估纪律攻击。**主链路干净**：向面板注入 2026-10-28..30 的极端未来行后，2026-10-23 目标权重逐位不变（max|Δw|=0）；两次运行权重差为 0；prev-weights 链拒绝未来权重；13 只 ST 名单与当日全市场快照在池内完全一致；估值 ffill 无 bfill；用当前缓存重算两份台账与已存 nav 差异 < 4e-7 CNY。 + +**守卫口径变更**：自本日起冻结哈希统一按 **LF 归一化** 计算（`\r\n`→`\n`，parquet 除外），避免 git autocrlf 在异机 checkout 造成误报；§6/§7 中的原哈希为原始字节口径，对应同一内容。守卫覆盖从 5 个代码文件扩展为 **13 个代码/数据文件 + 2 个期初目标 + ST 名单**，新增：portfolio/optimizers、covariance、constraints，factors/processing、evaluation，backtest/metrics，utils/exchange_calendar，行业映射 parquet。守卫检测到漂移后**不再自动重设基线**，警报持续到人工处置。 + +**归一化哈希（守卫权威值，sha256[:16]）**： + +| 文件 | 哈希 | +|---|---| +| tools/daily_signal.py | `ee4773925b1a7d5f` | +| tools/paper_track.py | `ef4d8323d38375e6` | +| tools/forward_update.py | `1d97834af3e14448` | +| backtest/engine.py | `d937c3403d83c2fd` | +| backtest/cost_model.py | `18a71fb6cec9e2be` | +| portfolio/optimizers.py | `1e703bd95fd68a57` | +| portfolio/covariance.py | `20a51b273adc9550` | +| portfolio/constraints.py | `7e1c65c80599921b` | +| factors/processing.py | `467221452b51130b` | +| factors/evaluation.py | `0a8c0dfb1d08878e` | +| backtest/metrics.py | `49399a9141d95171` | +| utils/exchange_calendar.py | `00260b954308468a` | +| .cache/baostock/industry_map.parquet | `5da906a2e4bca0c0` | +| turnover 目标 2026-10-23 | `bdfb3e7c814aa3b7` | +| ep_turnover 目标 2026-10-23 | `b4d49582459af14c` | +| ST 名单 2026-10-23 | `b42b7ab7a67a28f6` | + +**发现与处置**： + +| # | 发现 | 处置 | 截止 | +|---|---|---|---| +| B1 | 守卫只覆盖 5 个代码文件，优化器/因子处理/指标/日历/行业映射未校验 | 已修复（见上表），每日任务先跑守卫 | 2026-10-28 ✅ | +| B2 | EP 的估值输入自 2026-10-24 起无刷新，11-30 目标 vintage 将达 ~37 天（历史 p90=18 天），ep_turnover 会退化为静态截面 | 在月末流程中接入因果估值刷新（当日观测、写入 provenance vintage）；10-30 目标不受影响（vintage 6 天） | 2026-11-30 前 | +| B3 | 3/6 个月评估规则未钉死公式/基准构造/窗口/多重比较；0.2 与 0.3 门槛、3 与 6 个月终止权限在文档间冲突 | 编写唯一权威评估规范 + 冻结评估脚本（从 nav.csv 重算，含 ST 剔除基准与 CI），调和文档冲突 | 2027-01 评估前 | +| M1 | 滚动台账全量重写；守卫漂移后自动重设基线 | 守卫已改为不重设基线；paper_track 逐日差异比对列入新版本变更 | 2026-11 月内 | +| M2 | 交易日历无 2027 数据；`QUANT_EXCHANGE_HOLIDAYS` 可改执行日 | 国务院公布 2027 假期后更新日历（已建 11-25 提醒）；评估前复核 | 2026-12 中 | +| M3 | 台账基准含 13 只不可买 ST 股，研究口径为剔除 ST 的可投资等权 | 评估基准定为 ST 剔除口径（评估脚本双列输出）；nav.csv 历史列不改写 | 与 B3 同 | +| M4 | 目标无法从今日缓存逐字节复现（新浪 turnover 历史被修订，重跑权重差 ≤3.1e-3） | 目标哈希已锁定；provenance 将记录面板/估值 vintage；补生成限制写入 B2 处置 | 与 B2 同 | +| M5 | paper_track 对涨跌停被阻的处置（放弃至下月）与回测引擎（逐日重试）不同 | 记录为前向实验的冻结执行规则；评估以 paper_track 语义为准，差异写入评估规范 | 与 B3 同 | +| m1 | §6 的 paper_track 哈希曾在首日 NAV 生成后被原地更新（a94cb13），与 §4.1 冲突 | 在此如实记录：首日 NAV 由 `672c8aa` 产生，行值经独立重算一致；此后冻结变更必须走新版本 | 已记录 ✅ | +| m5 | summary.json 不在冻结范围，终止指标若直接引用可被重写 | 评估脚本强制从 nav.csv 重算 | 与 B3 同 | +| m8 | 6 个月 Sharpe 标准误约 0.09，统计功效有限；两个策略 + 3 个月 interim 无多重性控制 | 评估规范中报告置信区间与多重性说明；interim 不授权提前终止（维持 §4.4） | 与 B3 同 | + +**残余风险（如实记录，不修复）**：M4 的历史数据修订通道无技术手段完全消除（供应商会重算 hfq/turnover）；M5 的执行语义差异会系统性低估或高估前向表现（方向未知）；m4 的 9.8% 统一涨跌停近似会误挡创业板/科创板 20% 涨跌停（影响小、方向保守）。 + +**首次守卫事件（2026-10-28）**：10-28 台账落地后守卫报告两份 nav.csv 前 3 行被改写。`git diff` 复核：策略 NAV、日收益、回撤、持仓数、成本**逐字不变**；唯一变化是 10-27 的基准日收益从 −2.90534258% 微调为 −2.90532096%（差 2.2e-7），来源为 002717 停牌数据修复后等权基准截面的微调。判定无实质影响，记录后以 `freeze_guard.py --accept` 重设基线。同日生产环境首次实际触发停牌重分类：002717 由当日快照（成交量 0）确认为停牌，未阻塞台账。 + +## 9. v3.2 —— 估值数据流程修复（2026-10-28） + +**触发（审计 B2）**：估值存储来自百度 PE(TTM)/PB，供应商对各股票按自己的采样日发布（每只股票日期不同，近期约每 2–4 个交易日一次，全池合计呈近似日频）。管线自 **2026-10-24** 后没有任何刷新任务，EP 输入靠 ffill 逐日变旧；若不管，11-30 换仓目标的估值 vintage 将达 ~37 天，超过研究期观测到的 p90=18 天，EP 会退化为 2026-10-24 的静态截面——这已不是冻结定义下的策略。 + +**修复**：新增 `tools/fetch_valuation.py`： + +- 只追加供应商日期行（不臆造日期），丢弃晚于当天的行（因果）； +- 逐资产原子写；按股票池重建 `valuation_wide.parquet`（池外资产一律忽略）； +- 输出 `.scratch/valuation_baidu/vintage.json`（逐资产 vintage 与失败列表）； +- 失败资产 >5% 或刷新后中位 vintage >21 天时退出 2； +- 接入每日任务：`freeze_guard → fetch_valuation → forward_update`。月末交易日估值刷新失败（退出 2）时，当日不生成新目标，只在汇报中说明；非月末日失败不阻塞台账（换手策略不依赖估值）。 + +**不变**：EP 因子定义、参数、组合约束、权重、10-23 期初目标与已生成台账均未改动。研究阶段的 EP 使用的就是同源百度序列的 PIT 值，本修复恢复的是**数据供给**，不是策略变更。生效后 EP 目标使用 ≤as_of 的最新供应商观测（预计 vintage 0–4 天）；10-30 目标即受益。 + +**哈希**：`tools/fetch_valuation.py` 见 freeze_guard FROZEN 列表（sha256[:16]）。 + +## 10. 评估规范冻结（2026-11-03） + +**触发（审计 B3）**：3/6 个月评估的口径（Sharpe 公式、无风险利率、窗口、基准构造、多重比较）此前只在清单 §4 写了"报告内容"，未钉死到可执行，且两份文档的门槛与终止权限互相冲突。 + +**新增**： + +- `docs/research/EVALUATION_SPEC_2026-11.md`（预注册）：评估时点（2027-01 底诊断、2027-04 底裁决，以交易所日历为准）；窗口自 2026-10-26；指标唯一口径（主口径 Sharpe = √252·mean/std、rf=0；次口径 rf=3% 仅报告）；主基准 B1 = 剔当日 ST 的可投资等权（Baostock PIT `isST` 重建），次基准 B2 = 台账现列；裁决规则（6 个月：Sharpe ≥0.2 且对 B1/B2 超额均为正；3 个月仅诊断不裁决）；夏普 95% CI 与多重性处理（两策略全量报告，相关性 >0.9 视为同一策略联合裁决）。 +- `tools/forward_evaluation.py`：唯一允许生成评估报告的脚本，只读 nav.csv 重算（禁止引用会被重写的 summary.json），输出带哈希的报告。 + +**冻结**：两者哈希均纳入 freeze_guard（`b849fef8b00af136`、`91fdda4410d4c396`）；评估前任何口径变更即违规。2026-11-03 已用 6 个交易日数据完整跑通一次（B1 重建成功，B1/B2 超额与台账一致），验证的是管线而非结论。 + +**每周哨兵首次报告（2026-11-06）与裁定**：本周（10-31～11-06）guard 全程无 DRIFT，9 个提交均未触碰冻结路径，4 个目标哈希一致，两份台账与 summary 一致。哨兵另标出两处**历史**登记瑕疵：`0ffcf61`（2026-10-26）与 `692a8d1`（2026-10-27）各在一次提交中原地更新了 §6 的 `forward_update.py` 哈希行、未建新版本记录。裁定：属 §8 m1 已披露的同一类"冻结前三天内的缺陷修复期实践"；两提交的代码均已被 v3.1 取代并哈希锁定（§7），无需追加版本或中止；本记录即正式闭合。 diff --git a/docs/research/OVERNIGHT_SUMMARY_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/OVERNIGHT_SUMMARY_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..73927dd --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/OVERNIGHT_SUMMARY_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,54 @@ +# 通宵工作总结 · 2026-10-25 凌晨 + +> 目标：把「能不能赚钱」从回测问题推进到**真实数据、真实前向、可观察**的证据。结论没有变好，但证据变硬了。 + +## 1. 今晚完成了什么 + +### 数据（关键突破） + +- 东财/Baostock 被网络阻断，但**新浪端点可用**：抓到 300 只跨板块 A 股（沪 106 / 深主板 99 / 创业板 92）2018-01-02 ~ **2026-10-23** 的后复权日线（OHLCV + 成交额 + 换手率）。 +- 跨源校验：与 Baostock 重叠股票收益率相关 **≥0.9994**、换手率 **1.000**，数据可信。 +- 百度估值接口：300 只 PE(TTM)/PB 历史（约半月频，ffill，无前视），用于 EP 因子。 +- 合并面板：` .scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet`（56.4 万行 × 300 只，2018–2026-10-23）。 + +### 研究结论（全部计入现有 44–48 个搜索配置的偏差） + +| 实验 | 结果 | 结论 | +|---|---|---| +| 宽池低换手（297 只） | Sharpe **0.805** vs 同池等权 0.493（+0.31），但 IR vs EW 为 **−0.04** | 方向复现，优势主要是**降波动**，不是跑赢等权 | +| 宽池 EP+换手 | 0.674（EP 单因子 0.497） | **EP 在宽池无增量**，反而拖累换手 | +| PIT 大小盘拆分 | 大盘半池 0.819 / 小盘 0.635 | 与旧全样本分组结论不同，大盘反而更强 | +| **2026 真 holdout（零调参、生产链路、9 个月）** | 换手（生产口径=行业中性，R30 E）**−4.89% vs 基准 −11.63%（+6.73pp）**，Sharpe −0.57 vs −0.83，回撤 −17.5% vs −22.2%；EP+换手 −8.49% | 防御性 tilt 在真实未见数据上延续，但**绝对收益为负** | +| 趋势过滤 overlay（预注册） | 2020–25 Sharpe 0.683→0.527；2026 −0.57→−1.14 | **无效，不采纳** | + +### 生产与跟踪 + +- `tools/daily_signal.py` 已补组合层 30% 行业上限；生成了 **2026-10-23 实盘目标**（32 只、单票 5%、行业最大 13.5%、带免责声明）。 +- `tools/paper_track.py` 支持自动识别后复权面板（新浪走 `amount/volume` 原始价），forward 台账链路端到端验证通过。 +- **双策略 forward paper 已就绪**： + - EP+换手：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/` + - 换手单因子：`docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/` + - 执行日 **2026-10-26**；每个工作日 16:20 自动任务 `quant-forward-paper-daily` 抓数据、月末自动换仓、重建台账。 + - **注意**：该任务未保存本会话权限模式，首次运行可能停在权限确认——请在桌面端 “Scheduled” 页点一次 “Run now” 预授权工具。 + +## 2. 结论（不变，但更有底气） + +- 低换手/低波是**防御性风格 tilt**，不是已证实的 alpha；2026 年真样本外跌得比基准少，但绝对收益仍为负。 +- EP 价值因子在宽池没有增量；趋势过滤、波动率目标、简单组合构建、5 个正交候选因子全部为负结果。 +- **不投真金白银**；让 forward paper 自己积累 3–6 个月记录，再按 `DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md` 的门槛复核。 + +## 3. 明天开始的自动流程 + +- 工作日 16:20：抓当天数据 → 月末生成新目标（prev_weights 链接）→ 更新两个 rolling 台账 → 汇报 NAV/收益/回撤/成本。 +- 首个执行日 2026-10-26；此后每个交易日都有真实前向记录。 + +## 3b. 测试 + +分目录全量复验：**3,875 passed**。其中 `test_alpha`（79）与 `test_backtest`（186）首轮因本机内存压力被系统杀死（exit 127，非用例失败），单独复跑全绿；其余目录一次通过。架构边界与 T+1 日历测试（R28）均通过。 + +## 4. 仓库状态 + +- 分支 `feature/system-hardening`，远端 head `a92d999`；PR #84 已更新（Update 4）。 +- 研究报告：`docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md`（新增 §17 宽池价值、§18 2026 holdout、overlay 负结果）。 +- 决策备忘：`docs/research/DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md`（补充 2026 holdout）。 +- 全部临时脚本与原始结果：`.scratch/orchestrate/`、`.scratch/holdout_2026/`、`.scratch/wide_sina_2026/`、`.scratch/valuation_baidu/`。 diff --git a/docs/research/PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c574a68 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,83 @@ +# 预注册：可转债双低轮动（2026-10-25） + +> 外部评审建议的“下一个收益来源”。本文件在**运行任何可转债回测之前**写定假设、数据、参数与验收标准；后续偏离必须在报告中标注为“事后修改”。本轮只做这一个新方向，不并行开新的股票因子。 + +## 1. 假设（可证伪） + +在沪深交易所可转债中，**双低（价格 + 转股溢价率）排序 + 月度轮动 + 强赎/信用过滤**，扣除真实成本后： + +- H1：样本外（2023-01-03 ~ 2025-12-31）净 Sharpe（标准口径）≥ 0.5，且优于全部基准（合格转债等权、沪深300、60/40、现金）； +- H2：2026-01-01 ~ 2026-10-23 真 holdout 收益不低于合格转债等权，回撤不更深； +- H3：30/50bps 固定滑点压力下，相对合格转债等权的超额不翻转符号。 + +经济逻辑：双低转债同时具备债底（纯债价值）与转股期权，价格低意味着下行有债底支撑、溢价率低意味着上涨跟得上正股；月度轮动捕捉估值修复与条款博弈（下修、强赎）。这与股票多因子、ETF 动量的收益来源不同。 + +## 2. 数据（已实测可用） + +- 转债列表与条款：`ak.bond_zh_cov()`（1,065 只，含发行规模、发行评级、转股价、上市日）。 +- 每只转债的日频历史：东财 `datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/get`，`type=RPTA_WEB_KZZ_LS`，字段： + - `DATE` 日期、`FCLOSE` 收盘价、`SWAPVALUE` 转股价值、`PUREBONDVALUE` 纯债价值、`FLOORPRICE_PREMIUM_RATIO_CB` 纯债溢价率、`USWAPTRATE` 转股溢价率、`SWAPPRICE` 转股价。 + - 实测 113050 返回 994 个交易日（2021-06-15 ~ 2025-07-18，退市后停止）。 +- 已知限制（先披露）： + 1. 该接口**无成交量/成交额**，无法建模流动性冲击；用固定滑点 10/30/50bps 替代，并按发行规模（≥3 亿元）过滤小券。 + 2. 信用评级只取**发行时**评级（AA- 及以上），不是 PIT 跟踪评级；存续期下调/违约（如 2023 年个案）无法逐日建模，作为尾部风险披露。 + 3. 强赎公告无历史数据，用条款触发代理：转股价值 ≥ 130 的交易日占最近 30 个交易日的比例 ≥ 15/30 时视为“强赎风险”，触发即剔除（见 §4）。 + 4. 转债 T+0、无印花税、佣金按 0.02% 计；涨跌停/临停（20% 与盘中临停）未逐笔建模，按月频调仓影响有限。 + +## 3. 固定股票池与 PIT 规则 + +- 每个调仓日 t，纳入满足以下条件的转债： + - 已上市 ≥ 60 个交易日（按价格序列计数）； + - t 日有收盘价、转股价值、纯债价值与转股溢价率； + - 发行规模 ≥ 3 亿元； + - 发行评级 ≥ AA-； + - 未触发强赎代理（§4）； + - 收盘价 ≤ 150 元（双低天然偏向低价券；该上限只排除极端高溢价/高价格个券）。 +- 不按业绩、不按行业筛选；不使用未来上市/退市信息。 + +## 4. 信号与组合（预注册参数） + +- 双低分数：`score = close + conversion_premium_rate(%)`（越低越好）；`conversion_premium_rate = USWAPTRATE`，若缺失则用 `close / SWAPVALUE - 1` 自算。 +- 排序：合格券按 score 升序取前 **20** 只；不足 20 只时其余仓位为现金（现金按 3%/年计息）。 +- 权重：等权（1/20）；单券上限 5%；不加杠杆、不做空。 +- 强赎过滤：对每只券计算最近 30 个交易日中转股价值 ≥ 130 的天数；≥15 天即剔除，且持仓中触发者在下一次调仓卖出（不做日内强平）。 +- 调仓：每月最后一个交易日收盘计算，下一交易日收盘执行（与股票/ETF 研究一致）。 + +## 5. 成本 + +- 基线：佣金 0.02%（双边）、无印花税、滑点固定 10bps； +- 压力：固定 30bps、50bps（H3）； +- 换手上限不设（双低月频天然换手较高），但报告月度换手与成本占比。 + +## 6. 评估协议 + +- 开发/观察期：2019-01-02 ~ 2022-12-30（仅校验数据管线与规则实现；参数已预注册，不调）。 +- OOS：2023-01-03 ~ 2025-12-31。 +- 真 holdout：2026-01-01 ~ 2026-10-23（最终评估前不查看结果）。 +- 基准：① 全部合格转债月度等权（同成本）；② 沪深300 buy&hold；③ 60/40（沪深300/现金）；④ 纯现金 3%。 +- 指标：标准年化 Sharpe、CAGR、波动、MDD、相对各基准 IR 与年化超额；DSR（真实试验数 N=12，见 §7）。 +- 稳健性：逐年超额；剔除 2024-09（政策行情）后结论是否仍在；强赎代理阈值敏感性（10/15/20 天）只报告不选择。 + +## 7. 敏感性网格（只报告，不用于选择） + +`top_k ∈ {10,20,30}` × `强赎阈值 ∈ {10,15,20 天}` × `最低评级 ∈ {AA-,AA}` = 12 个配置，全部报告；DSR 试验数按 12 计。若只有默认配置显著、邻域全部失效，判为过拟合，不通过。 + +## 8. 验收与终止（先定死） + +| 条件 | 处置 | +|---|---| +| H1、H2 同时成立，且 H3 不翻转 | 进入 3 个月 forward paper（独立台账），仍不投真钱 | +| H1 成立但 H2 失败 | 冻结，不部署，等下一个 holdout | +| H1 失败 | 放弃该方向，不再调参重试（记为一次已消耗的试验） | +| 默认配置为孤立显著点 | 判为过拟合，放弃 | + +## 9. 与现有策略的关系 + +- 不修改已冻结的股票策略（`FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` v2）与已冻结的 ETF 方向；本方向独立数据、独立台账。 +- 若通过，再评估与股票策略的相关性；本文件不预设结论。 + +## 10. 变更记录 + +- 2026-10-25：初版，回测代码尚未编写；仅完成数据接口可行性探测（转债列表、单券历史字段），未查看任何组合业绩。 +- 2026-10-25（结果）：见 `docs/research/CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`。开发期 Sharpe 1.099 → OOS **0.275**（转债等权 0.382）、2026 holdout **−5.13%**（转债等权 −4.34%）、30/50bps 超额转负。H1/H2/H3 全部不成立，按 §8 **放弃该方向，不再调参重试**。 +- 2026-10-25（更正）：§7 枚举为 3×3×2 = **18 组**（原文误写 12 组）；实际执行 18 组，DSR 按 N=18 计算，结论不受影响（全部不显著）。 diff --git a/docs/research/PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md b/docs/research/PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d179f7e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md @@ -0,0 +1,87 @@ +# 预注册：ETF 动量轮动（2026-10-25） + +> 外部评审建议“只做**一个**新收益来源的预注册研究：ETF 轮动或可转债”。本文件在**运行任何 ETF 回测之前**写定全部假设、参数、数据口径与验收标准。此后任何偏离都必须在报告里显式标注为“事后修改”，本轮研究不接受。 + +## 1. 假设（可证伪） + +在 A 股可交易 ETF 中，**横截面 12-1 动量 + 绝对动量过滤 + 逆波动率加权**的月度轮动，扣除真实成本后： + +- H1：2020-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31 的净 Sharpe（标准口径）≥ 0.5，且优于全部四个基准； +- H2：2026-01-01 ~ 2026-10-23 真 holdout 上收益不低于沪深 300 与等权基准，回撤不更深； +- H3：30/50bps 固定滑点压力下，相对等权基准的超额不翻转符号。 + +经济逻辑：ETF 层面动量捕捉的是资产类别/板块的趋势持续性（投资者资金流与信息扩散缓慢），比个股动量少受特质噪声和退市/ST 干扰；绝对动量过滤用于规避系统性下跌；逆波动率加权控制风险预算。 + +## 2. 数据 + +- 来源：新浪 `fund_etf_hist_sina`（日线，截至 2026-10-23 已实测可用）+ `fund_etf_dividend_sina`（累计分红，逐次差分还原每次分红）。 +- 总收益：`r_t = (close_t + div_t)/close_{t-1} - 1`，`div_t` 为除息日当天的每股分红；无分红记录视为 0（跨境/商品 ETF 通常不分红）。 +- **不使用**债券 ETF：新浪分红记录不完整（如 511260 仅见 2025-09 起），总收益无法可靠重建；防御腿用**现金**（3%/年，按日计息）。 +- 已知偏差：ETF 分红表完整性无法独立验证，若遗漏分红则策略收益被**低估**（保守方向）；跨境 ETF 存在溢价/折价与 QDII 限购，回测按场内收盘价成交，无法建模溢价均值回归。 + +## 3. 固定股票池（按代表性+流动性事先选定，不按业绩筛选） + +| 代码 | 名称 | 类别 | 起始日（实测） | +|---|---|---|---| +| sh510300 | 沪深300ETF | 宽基 | 2012-05-28 | +| sh510500 | 中证500ETF | 宽基 | 2013-03-15 | +| sz159915 | 创业板ETF | 宽基 | 2011-12-09 | +| sh512100 | 中证1000ETF | 宽基 | 2016-11-04 | +| sh588000 | 科创50ETF | 宽基 | 2020-11-16 | +| sh510880 | 红利ETF | 风格 | 2007-01-18 | +| sz159928 | 消费ETF | 行业 | 2013-09-16 | +| sh512010 | 医药ETF | 行业 | 2015-08-04 | +| sh512880 | 证券ETF | 行业 | 2016-08-08 | +| sh512660 | 军工ETF | 行业 | 2016-08-08 | +| sh512690 | 酒ETF | 行业 | 2019-05-06 | +| sh513100 | 纳指ETF | 跨境 | 2013-07-31 | +| sh513500 | 标普500ETF | 跨境 | 2014-01-15 | +| sz159920 | 恒生ETF | 跨境 | 2012-10-22 | +| sh518880 | 黄金ETF | 商品 | 2013-07-29 | + +PIT 规则：调仓日 t，仅纳入**截至 t 已有 ≥252 个交易日**数据的 ETF（计数而非仅看上市日）。 + +## 4. 信号与组合（预注册参数，不做择优） + +- 动量：`mom = Π(1+r)`，窗口为 t-252 至 t-21（跳过最近 21 日，避免短期反转）。 +- 波动：60 个交易日的日收益标准差（因果，只用 t 及以前）。 +- 排序：合格 ETF 按 `mom` 降序；只保留 `mom > 0` 的标的；取前 **3** 名。 +- 权重：逆波动率 `w_i ∝ 1/σ_i`，单只上限 **40%**；不足 3 只合格时其余仓位为现金。 +- 调仓：每月最后一个交易日收盘后计算，**下一交易日收盘**成交（与股票引擎一致）。 +- 成本：佣金 0.03%（ETF 免印花税），滑点=impact 复合模型（slippage=10bps）为基线；压力测试用固定 30/50bps。 + +## 5. 评估协议 + +- 开发/观察期：2013-01-02 ~ 2019-12-31（仅用于确认数据管线正确性；参数已预注册，不做调整）。 +- OOS：2020-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31。 +- 真 holdout：2026-01-01 ~ 2026-10-23（最终评估前不查看结果）。 +- 基准：① 510300 buy&hold；② 合格池月度等权再平衡；③ 60/40（510300/现金）；④ 纯现金 3%。 +- 指标：标准年化 Sharpe、CAGR、波动、MDD、相对各基准的 IR 与年化超额；DSR（真实试验数 N=18，见 §6）。 +- 稳健性：逐年超额；剔除 2020（疫情）与 2024-02（小微盘流动性危机）后结论是否仍在；换手率与成本占比。 + +## 6. 敏感性网格（只报告，不用于选择） + +`lookback ∈ {63,126,252}` × `vol_window ∈ {20,60}` × `top_k ∈ {2,3,5}` = 18 个配置，全部报告；DSR 的试验数按 18 计。若只有默认配置显著而邻域全部失效，视为过拟合，不通过。 + +## 7. 验收与终止（先定死） + +| 条件 | 处置 | +|---|---| +| H1 与 H2 同时成立，且 H3 不翻转 | 进入 3 个月 forward paper（独立台账），仍不投真钱 | +| H1 成立但 H2 失败 | 冻结，不部署；等下一个 holdout | +| H1 失败 | 放弃该方向，不再调参重试（记为一次已消耗的试验） | +| 敏感性网格中默认配置为孤立显著点 | 判为过拟合，放弃 | + +## 8. 与现有股票策略的关系 + +- 本预注册**不修改**已冻结的股票策略（`FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md`），两者独立台账。 +- 若 ETF 轮动通过，再评估与股票策略的相关性与合并配置；本文件不预设结论。 + +## 9. 变更记录 + +- 2026-10-25：初版，回测代码尚未编写/运行。 +- 2026-10-25（数据/实现修复，策略参数未变，全部在最终结果前完成并复跑）： + 1. 新浪价格序列未调整公司行为（159928 于 2021-06-24 的 1:4 份额折算、510500 于 2022-08-26 未记录的分红），改用东方财富官方净值增长率 `equityReturn` 作为总收益； + 2. 净值时间戳按 UTC 解析导致整体提前一天（等价于一天前视），改为北京时间（+8h）后复跑； + 3. 冲击成本在零/缺失成交额上爆炸（单日 −15 倍组合收益），改用因果 60 日中位成交额（shift 1）作为 ADV。 +- 2026-10-25：结果见 `docs/research/ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`。H1/H3 通过、H2 失败 → 按 §7 冻结，不部署；不再调参重试。 diff --git a/docs/research/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL_LATEST.json b/docs/research/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL_LATEST.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..678074a --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/QMT_SAFETY_DRILL_LATEST.json @@ -0,0 +1,88 @@ +{ + "timestamp": "2026-10-28T09:10:48", + "mode": "simulated fault injection; no real broker connection", + "xtquant_installed": false, + "real_miniqmt_certified": false, + "results": [ + { + "name": "stale_quotes", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "old_age_seconds": 3600.000540971756, + "fresh_age_seconds": 0.0005409717559814453, + "shanghai_vs_utc_age": 0.0 + } + }, + { + "name": "fill_dedup_vwap", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "filled_quantity": 200, + "filled_price_vwap": 10.5, + "duplicate_trade_ignored": true + } + }, + { + "name": "partial_cancellation", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "filled_quantity": 150, + "terminal_status": "cancelled", + "ambiguous_incremental_print_not_guessed": true + } + }, + { + "name": "submission_timeout_race", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "tracked_orders": 1, + "recovered_broker_id": "b-race", + "working_codes": [ + "600519.SH" + ] + } + }, + { + "name": "kill_switch_delayed_sell", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "cycles": 2, + "orders_submitted": 1, + "quantity": 100 + } + }, + { + "name": "account_fail_closed", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "positions_known": false, + "account_error": "BrokerConnectionError", + "authoritative_orders": null + } + }, + { + "name": "cost_and_cash_funding", + "status": "PASS", + "details": { + "invalid_adv_cost": 700.0, + "initial_weight": 0.99, + "final_nav": 1078.2099999999998, + "cost_calls": [ + [ + 1000.0, + 0.0 + ], + [ + 990.0, + 0.0 + ], + [ + 0.0, + 1089.0 + ] + ] + } + } + ], + "all_passed": true +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/research/README.md b/docs/research/README.md index 1282c49..4185a7b 100644 --- a/docs/research/README.md +++ b/docs/research/README.md @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ | 编号 | 名称 | 核心发现 | 状态 | |------|------|---------|------| -| #001 | [Factor Selection](ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md) | 等权融合所有因子会显著稀释 Alpha。Top 8 vs All 26 差距 **1.24 Sharpe** | ✅ | +| #001 | [Factor Selection](ABLATION_001_FACTOR_SELECTION.md) | 等权融合所有因子会显著稀释 Alpha。Top 8 vs All 26 差距 **1.24 Sharpe** | ⚠️ **数字作废（#60）** — 产出于空信号缺陷修复前 | | #002 | [Correlation Clustering](ABLATION_002_CORRELATION_CLUSTERING.md) | 8 个因子 = **4 个独立 Alpha 信号簇**：短期反转、中期趋势、长期趋势、流动性 | ✅ | | #003 | [Cluster Representatives](ABLATION_003_CLUSTER_REPRESENTATIVES.md) | 4 个代表因子解释 Top 8 的 **82% 收益**（Sharpe 0.381 vs 0.464） | ✅ | @@ -45,3 +45,19 @@ 2. **单变量**：每次只改变一个变量 3. **有对照组**：每份报告都有清晰的基准（Benchmark） 4. **结论导向**：每份报告回答一个具体的研究问题 + +--- + +## 真实数据研究（2026-10） + +| 文档 | 内容 | +|---|---| +| [REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md](REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md) | 101 池与宽池的真实数据证据、2026 holdout、口径审计（§20）、成本压力测试（§21） | +| [DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md](DEPLOYMENT_DECISION_2026-10-25.md) | 部署决策备忘、复核门槛、90 天执行计划 | +| [FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md](FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md) | 冻结策略清单（sha256/tag）、变更与终止规则 | +| [DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md](DATA_DEFECT_LEDGER_2026-10-25.md) | 15 项历史数据缺陷台账与处置状态 | +| [PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md](PREREG_ETF_ROTATION_2026-10-25.md) | ETF 动量轮动预注册（数据、参数、验收标准） | +| [ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md](ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md) | ETF 试点结果：OOS 达标、2026 holdout 失败 → 冻结 | +| [PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md](PREREG_CB_DOUBLE_LOW_2026-10-25.md) | 可转债双低轮动预注册（下一个收益来源） | +| [CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md](CB_DOUBLE_LOW_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md) | 可转债双低结果：开发期 1.10 → OOS 0.28、holdout 失败 → 按预注册放弃 | +| [EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_2026-10-25.md](EXTERNAL_REVIEW_PACKAGE_2026-10-25.md) | 给外部评审的自包含材料与处置记录（§13） | diff --git a/docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md b/docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..afc2555 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/REAL_DATA_EVIDENCE_2026-10-24.md @@ -0,0 +1,745 @@ +# 真实数据研究证据 · 低换手/价值/低波的多头实现（2026-10-24，R19b 重写） + +> 本文件是 2026-10-24 真实数据研究报告的 **R19b 重写版 + R20 口径对齐**。旧版的三份对抗评审发现了门禁前视、低波前向收益、大小盘全样本分组、基准口径与 DSR 口径等问题；R19a 修复代码与工具、R18 修复执行层资金约束后，R19b 用**修正后的代码重跑**了 headline 变体、基准、风格归因、PIT 大小盘拆分与容量曲线，并按证据重写结论。**R20 又对齐了两处研究链路口径**：真实行业映射使 `max_sector_exposure` 真正生效（旧版传单一 "A" 行业被优化器按平台语义跳过），Walk-Forward 打开 `rank_normalize_signal` 使 alpha 为 rank[-0.5,0.5] 口径（旧版是 z-score 复合）；并用修正后的链路重跑了 `ep_turn_sector` / `ep_turn_ss` / `turnover60_sector` / `lowvol_sector`（§3/§5 中标 R20 的行）。`turnover60_plain` 等其余数字沿用 R19b 并标注口径；保留的旧数字一律标注“旧口径”及来源。 +> +> 数据来自本机 `.cache/baostock` 既有缓存（2018-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31，101 只股票），本机网络不可用，未做实时/增量拉取。所有脚本与结果在 `.scratch/orchestrate/`（不入 git）。 + +## 0. 结论（先读这段） + +**这个策略不是“已证实的 alpha”，而是“已知风格溢价的低换手多头实现”。** + +1. **净成本 OOS（2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1433 个连续会话）**：EP+换手家族与 60 日低换手的行业中性口径 Sharpe 0.35–0.49（R20 重跑：**行业上限已生效、alpha 采用 rank 口径**；平台口径：`(CAGR − 3%) / 年化波动`）；行业+成交额中性后 0.35。唯一看起来高的是纯低换手（0.68，R19b 旧口径）与低波组合（0.58，R20）：它们相对**同池等权基准**的标准信息比率（`mean/std` 日超额，年化）为 0.38 / 0.21，CAGR 差 +4.9pp / +3.0pp；但风格归因后的 alpha t 只有 1.14 / 0.79。 +2. **五因子风格归因**：策略日收益对市场 + 低换手 + 低波 + EP + 规模五因子的回归 **R² = 0.85–0.87**；残余 alpha 在 **−0.1% ~ +2.6%/年，|t| ≤ 1.14**，**没有一个显著**。收益的绝大部分是风格暴露，不是残差 alpha。 +3. **多重检验**：按评审清点的 44–48 个被搜索配置，DSR（超额收益、N=48）p 值 **0.71–0.89**，全部不显著；低换手单因子 p=0.72，行业中性/行业+规模候选 p=0.78–0.89。 +4. **理性预期（推断，不是回测数字）**：年化 **5–9%**、Sharpe **0.13–0.4**。常见的表述“年化 5–7%、Sharpe 0.2–0.4”只有在**未来波动 10–12%** 时才同时成立；在实测约 16% 的年化波动下，5–7% 总收益对应 Sharpe 0.13–0.25，Sharpe 0.2–0.4 对应总收益 6.2–9.4%（换算：总收益 = 3% 无风险 + Sharpe × 波动）。回测里的 0.35–0.68 是 44–48 个配置里被看过的值，向前还要扣选择偏差、容量与执行折损，因此取区间下沿。**这不是收益承诺。** +5. **明确表态**：**不应据此投入真金白银。** 下一步是 forward paper 跟踪（真实行情、不动钱）与正交 alpha 研究（先对风格因子残差化，再检验残差上的增量信息）。 + +## 1. 数据与股票池（评审修正后的事实） + +| 项 | 事实 | +|---|---| +| 面板 | 101 只股票 × 1942 个交易日（2018-01-02 ~ 2025-12-31），日线 OHLCV + `pct_chg`/`turnover`/`pe_ttm`/`pb_mrq` | +| 板块构成 | **101 只全部是 `000xxx` 深市主板**——没有沪市、创业板、科创板、北交所。所有结论只在这个同质池内成立 | +| 退市 | 面板内有 **12 只**股票的最后一条数据早于 2025-12-31（000005/000018/000022/000023/000038/000040/000043/000046/000150/000413/000416/000418）；cache metadata 带 delisting_date。旧报告“21 只已退市”是错的（另 9 只在 metadata 中但不在面板） | +| 期末在交易 | 89 只（最后一日有收盘价） | +| 价格 | 收益用 Baostock 官方 `pct_chg` 复利构建后复权路径，天然处理除权除息；`returns[t] = pct_chg[t+1]` 为平台的 t→t+1 前向标签 | +| 估值 | `pe_ttm`/`pb_mrq` 是**逐日 PIT 值**（不是最新快照回填）；公告时点无法完全审计 | +| 行业 | `industry_map.parquet` 是**静态最新分类**（无 effective_date），属轻度前视；101 只中 12 只无行业（并入 Unknown） | +| ST | 无 ST 历史（缓存不提供），ST 过滤在本池不可用 | +| 财务 | 无 PIT 财务面板（缓存只有逐日 pe/pb 两列），因此无法做严格的基本面 PIT 因子 | + +## 2. 方法（R19b 口径） + +- **Walk-Forward**：expanding，train=504 交易日，test=126，step=126，`purge_gap=5`，`embargo=5`；12 折，OOS **1433 个连续会话**（2020-02-11..2025-12-31，等于缓存从 2020-02-11 起的全部交易日；purge/embargo 作用于训练窗，测试窗首尾相接）。 +- **因子选择**：每个 fold 只用训练窗 IC 做 t 检验 + BH-FDR，按 |ICIR| 取 top-k；测试窗不参与选择。注意：`ep_turn_sector`/`ep_turn_ss` 只喂 2 个因子、top-2，选择器没有选择空间——“12 折始终选中 EP 与换手”是同义反复，不是稳定性证据。 +- **信号合成**：IC 加权（权重带符号，负 IC 因子自动反向）。**R20 起（§3 表中四个重跑变体）每个 fold 的信号先做横截面 `rank(pct=True) − 0.5`（`WalkForwardValidator.rank_normalize_signal=True`）再交给引擎**——与优化器文档的 rank alpha 口径一致（`ALPHA_ANNUAL_SCALE` 把全秩区间映射为 ±2% 年化超额）；rank 只用当日横截面，无前视。`turnover60_plain` 未在 R20 重跑，仍是 R19b 的 z-score 口径，横比时注意。 +- **组合**：MVO，风险厌恶 1.0（按文档的 rank alpha 口径校准），单票上限 5%，**行业上限 30%（R20 起研究链路传入真实 `industry_map.parquet` 静态行业，行业上限真正生效；旧版传单一 "A" 行业，优化器按平台语义跳过该约束）**，换手上限 30%，成本惩罚 20bp + 二次换手罚 0.5；协方差 Ledoit-Wolf + PSD 加固。**size 代理**：成交额（`volume × close`）不是真实市值，且与换手共线；行业+成交额中性化会**过度控制**，`ep_turn_ss` 的 0.35（R20）应视为下界而非精确的纯 alpha（旧报告已披露，本轮保留）。 +- **执行（R18）**：信号日下一交易日**收盘**成交；先卖后买，买入受可用现金约束等比缩放，账本 `sum(weights) ≤ 1+1e-9`，不留隐性杠杆。单票 5% 是**目标层约束**；实现层由现金/换手上限与执行门禁共同决定，不保证逐日硬约束。 +- **涨跌停门禁（R19a 修复）**：用**执行日当天**已实现的 `pct_chg`（`|pct_chg| > 9.8%`，10% 板块近似），不再用次日收益。 +- **成本**：佣金 0.03%（每单最低 5 元）、过户费 0.001%（双边）、印花税按法定日期（2023-08-28 后 0.05%，仅卖出）；冲击成本 `impact`（composite 模型，**实际核心是平方根规则**——`sqrt(参与率) × 波动率`；vectorised 路径本身就是纯平方根）。 +- **波动率（R19a 修复）**：低波因子与容量估计器均用**因果波动率**：低波因子用同日 `pct` 的滚动 std；容量估计器用 `returns.rolling(20).std().shift(1)`。旧版滚动 `returns`（前向标签）会把 t→t+1 的未实现收益放进 t 日窗口。 +- **DSR**：Bailey–López de Prado 形式，输入为**超额日收益**（`r − 3%/252`，252 日年化基），`num_trials=48`（评审清点的 44–48 个配置取下沿上界）。 +- **基准**：与策略同一 OOS 时钟、同一前向标签。`daily_ew` = 同池每日再平衡等权；`buyhold` = **constant-share** 等权买入持有：首个 OOS 日建仓，之后不再平衡；退市股票的相对价值**结转（carry-forward）**为最后报价，不把权重再平衡进存续股票。基准是 **gross（无成本）**，策略是净成本，对比时需注意。基准 Sharpe 同用平台 `(CAGR−3%)/vol` 口径。 +- **信息比率**：标准定义 `IR = mean(日超额)/std(日超额) × √252`；另报 `CAGR 差 = 策略 CAGR − 基准 CAGR`（经济上的年化超额），不再把超额序列的 CAGR/vol 当作 IR。 +- **口径细节**：OOS 最后一日 2025-12-31 无前向收益，引擎按 0 收益处理（表内 1433 日含 1 个零收益日；对 Sharpe 影响约 0.0002，方向保守）；基准指标在 1432 个有效日上计算。`all_metrics` 年化用日历 CAGR，而 DSR 用 252 日基，两者 `observed_sharpe` 不可直接横向比较。 + +## 3. 主结果（R19b 重跑 + R20 四个变体对齐，净成本，OOS） + +命令与产物：R20 重跑的四个变体用 `python .scratch/orchestrate/real_variants2.py --headline --variant `（真实静态行业映射 `industry_map.parquet` + `rank_normalize_signal=True`），合并结果 `real_variants2_r20_2026-10-24.json`；`turnover60_plain` 未在 R20 重跑，仍取 R19b 产物（`r19b_headline_2026-10-24.json`，z-score/单行业口径）。所有变体：月度、5% 单票上限、**30% 行业上限（R20 四个变体真实生效）**、impact 成本、初始资金 200 万、12 折 WF。 + +| 变体 | Sharpe（rf=3%） | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p（excess，N=48） | IR vs 日频等权（mean/std） | CAGR 差 vs 等权 | 引擎回退 | OOS 年换手 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ep_turn_sector（EP+换手 20d，行业中性，R20） | 0.490 | 10.77% | −19.09% | 0.8310 | 0.088 | +1.77% | 0 | 0.78 | +| ep_turn_ss（EP+换手，行业+成交额中性，R20） | 0.355 | 8.60% | −22.56% | 0.8949 | −0.133 | −0.39% | 0 | 0.71 | +| turnover60_plain（60 日低换手，R19b 口径） | 0.682 | 13.92% | −16.93% | 0.7082 | 0.376 | +4.93% | 0 | 0.73 | +| turnover60_sector（60 日低换手，行业中性，R20） | 0.429 | 9.54% | −19.97% | 0.8637 | −0.046 | +0.55% | 0 | 0.62 | +| lowvol_sector（20/60 日低波，行业中性，因果波动率，R20） | 0.577 | 12.02% | −17.61% | 0.7805 | 0.212 | +3.03% | 0 | 0.99 | + +- **口径说明（R20）**：标 R20 的四行已按任务书对齐——Walk-Forward 每个 fold 的信号先做横截面 `rank(pct=True) − 0.5`（rank alpha），并把真实静态行业映射传入引擎，`max_sector_exposure=0.30` 真正进入优化器（不再被单一 "A" 行业静默跳过）。`turnover60_plain` 保持 R19b 的 z-score/单行业口径，与其余四行不严格可比，只作参照。 +- **行业上限证据（优化器目标口径）**：R20 四个变体**各** 790 次优化器目标（含每折训练窗热身期的调仓，非仅 OOS），按真实行业分组的最大行业权重为 **26.89%–30.00%**，全部 ≤ 30%（0 次违规）；其中 `ep_turn_sector` 有 44 次、`ep_turn_ss` 有 33 次正好顶在 30% 上限，**证明约束在求解器里真实生效、不是被跳过**；`turnover60_sector` / `lowvol_sector` 未顶到（26.89% / 27.04%）。引擎执行后权重（`weights_history`，含现金缩放与延迟成交漂移）最高 27.56%，同样 0 违规（目标 vs 执行口径差异见 §9 #6）。单行业对照测试（`test_real_sector_map_caps_every_sector_at_30_percent`）：单一 "A" 行业时优化器跳过约束、行业权重达 60%；真实两行业 map 下 ≤30%。可行的四行业 MVO 测试（`test_solver_cap_binds_when_the_problem_is_feasible`）直接验证求解器：MVO 成功（fallback=0）、被偏好行业恰好顶在 30.000%、全部行业 ≤30%（cap=1.0 的反向对照则为 60.0%）。**15% 收紧剂量探针**（`ep_turn_sector`，`r20_cap_probe_2026-10-24.json`）：优化器目标最大行业权重 **15.000%**，693/790 次顶在 15% cap、0 违规——cap 随参数收紧，进一步确认约束真实生效；同一次运行的执行后权重最高 20.04%（漂移，见 §9 #6）。 +- **Sharpe 口径**：平台 `all_metrics`，`(日历 CAGR − 3%) / 年化波动`；**不是**日频均值/标准差的信息比率。**IR 列**才是标准信息比率（日超额 mean/std × √252）；**CAGR 差**是策略 CAGR 减基准 CAGR（不是超额序列自身的 CAGR）。 +- 对 constant-share buy&hold 的同口径数字：IR 0.16 / −0.04 / 0.41（R19b）/ 0.04 / 0.27，CAGR 差 +2.7pp / +0.6pp / +5.9pp（R19b）/ +1.5pp / +4.0pp（按表中顺序）。 +- **回退计数**：取自引擎 `summary["n_optimizer_fallbacks"]`（12 折合计），R20 四个变体全部为 **0**；`n_identity_covariance_fallbacks`、`n_skipped_rebalances`、`n_covariance_failures` 也全部为 0。R18 的现金缩放计数（`n_funding_scaled_days`，引擎 summary 的**执行/重试日数**，12 折合计、含每折热身窗）为 8393–10529，说明现金约束确实在工作，不是空转。 +- **OOS 年换手**：0.62–0.99（单边，按执行日累计 / OOS 年数，R20 四行）；`lowvol_sector` 因两因子组合调仓更频繁而最高（0.99）。 + +### 年度收益（R20 重跑；turnover60_plain 为 R19b） + +| 年 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ep_turn_sector | +23.2% | +21.7% | −5.9% | +0.7% | +6.3% | +20.9% | +| ep_turn_ss | +18.2% | +20.8% | −8.3% | −0.2% | +5.9% | +17.4% | +| turnover60_plain（R19b） | +30.3% | +14.6% | −1.2% | +9.0% | +10.8% | +21.0% | +| turnover60_sector | +22.8% | +18.6% | −6.2% | −0.3% | +7.5% | +16.8% | +| lowvol_sector | +25.3% | +27.5% | −2.1% | +3.4% | +6.4% | +13.4% | + +### 基准（同 OOS 窗口 2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1432 个有效日） + +| 基准 | Sharpe（rf=3%） | 年化（总收益） | 最大回撤 | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| 日频等权（每日再平衡） | 0.294 | 9.00% | −25.71% | +| 等权 buy&hold（constant-share，退市价值结转） | 0.243 | 8.06% | −33.52% | +| （参考）R19a 工具口径 buy&hold（skipna，退市股被剔除） | 0.310 | 9.52% | −32.25% | + +**关于 buy&hold 的定义（R19b 评审发现）**：R19a 工具 `compute_benchmark_returns` 用 `adj(t)/adj(t0)` 的 **skipna 截面均值**，退市股票会从均值中消失、权重被隐性再平衡进存续股票——这不是 buy&hold。本轮在 `.scratch` 研究层改用 **carry-forward**（退市后相对价值冻结在最后报价），得到 0.243 / 8.06% / −33.52%（与旧评审独立计算的 0.2425 / 8.06% / −33.52% 一致）。工具本体本轮禁改，下一轮应修复并补单测。基准为 gross（无成本），策略为净成本。 + +**旧报告的基准行（0.222 / 4.50% / −25.71%，“buy&hold”）不可复现且标签错误**：4.50% = 日频等权年化 7.53% − 3% 无风险，是**基准自身的超额年化**，不是总年化；−25.71% 与日频等权的 MDD 一致，不是 buy&hold 的。修正后，`turnover60_plain` 相对等权的 CAGR 差约 +4.9pp，行业中性后为 −0.4pp（R19b 的 turnover60_sector；R20 重跑为 +0.6pp）；旧报告“行业中性化后仍明显高于基准”的优势被显著夸大。 + +### 新旧数字对照 + +**R19b → R20（四个重跑变体；R20 = 真实行业 + rank 口径）** + +| 变体 | R19b Sharpe | R20 Sharpe | R19b 年化 | R20 年化 | R19b DSR p | R20 DSR p | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ep_turn_sector | 0.470 | **0.490** | 10.40% | **10.77%** | 0.8420 | **0.8310** | +| ep_turn_ss | 0.365 | **0.355** | 8.78% | **8.60%** | 0.8907 | **0.8949** | +| turnover60_sector | 0.363 | **0.429** | 8.59% | **9.54%** | 0.8923 | **0.8637** | +| lowvol_sector | 0.550 | **0.577** | 11.77% | **12.02%** | 0.7965 | **0.7805** | + +R20 对齐后 Sharpe 变化在 ±0.07 内（turnover60_sector 0.363→0.429 最大，其余 ±0.03），方向混合；DSR 仍全部不显著（0.78–0.89）。**口径对齐（行业上限生效 + rank alpha）没有推翻“风格暴露、无显著 alpha”的结论**，但确实改变了组合构建、换手与部分年度数字（见上表与 §5）。 + +**R19b 对更早 batch 的对照（历史，未变）** + +| 变体 | 旧 Sharpe | 新 Sharpe | 旧年化 | 新年化 | 旧 DSR p | 新 DSR p | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ep_turn_sector | 0.468（batch7） | **0.470** | 10.81% | **10.40%** | 0.621（gross，N=24） | **0.842（excess，N=48）** | +| ep_turn_ss | 0.374（batch9） | **0.365** | 9.23% | **8.78%** | 0.695（gross，N=24） | **0.891（excess，N=48）** | +| turnover60_plain | 0.702（batch5） | **0.682** | 14.41% | **13.92%** | 0.305（gross，N=12） | **0.708（excess，N=48）** | +| turnover60_sector | 0.389（batch5，名 turnover60_sector_neutral） | **0.363** | 9.55% | **8.59%** | 0.566（gross，N=12） | **0.892（excess，N=48）** | +| lowvol_sector | —（宽池 batch8 未实跑） | **0.550** | — | **11.77%** | — | **0.796（excess，N=48）** | +| turnover20_plain（全池） | 0.669（batch5） | **0.663** | 13.80% | **13.55%** | 0.329（gross，N=12） | **0.722（excess，N=48）** | + +R19b 的 Sharpe 差异 ≤0.03，说明 R19a/R18 的修正没有推翻数字本身；**真正变化的是口径与显著性**：DSR 从 gross/低估 trial 数改为 excess/N=48 后，全部 p 值升到 0.71–0.89，“看起来显著”的假象消失。`turnover20_plain` 与 `turnover60_plain` 未在 R20 重跑，R20 表中只更新了四个对齐变体。 + +## 4. 因子证据（R19b 复算） + +IC 不经过执行层，R19a 的门禁/波动率修复不影响它；本轮仍重算了一遍，保证报告每张表都有 R19b 产物（`r19b_ic_scan_2026-10-24.json`）。 + +### 因子动物园（行业中性，2018–2025，全部 14 个因子，按 |ICIR| 排序） + +| 因子 | 平均 IC | ICIR | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| volatility_20d | −0.0362 | −0.256 | −0.0385 | −0.0356 | −0.0318 | −0.0480 | −0.0382 | −0.0410 | +| amplitude_20d | −0.0348 | −0.241 | −0.0377 | −0.0336 | −0.0310 | −0.0482 | −0.0422 | −0.0404 | +| volatility_60d | −0.0330 | −0.223 | −0.0398 | −0.0277 | −0.0328 | −0.0465 | −0.0381 | −0.0314 | +| turnover_20d | −0.0278 | −0.204 | −0.0248 | −0.0259 | −0.0324 | −0.0352 | −0.0231 | −0.0369 | +| momentum_1m | −0.0227 | −0.157 | −0.0087 | −0.0233 | −0.0267 | −0.0161 | −0.0099 | −0.0316 | +| rsi_14d | −0.0195 | −0.141 | −0.0144 | −0.0199 | −0.0250 | −0.0136 | −0.0093 | −0.0236 | +| macd | −0.0186 | −0.141 | −0.0196 | −0.0160 | −0.0190 | −0.0253 | −0.0072 | −0.0127 | +| bp | +0.0165 | +0.136 | +0.0201 | +0.0162 | +0.0167 | +0.0218 | +0.0039 | +0.0119 | +| momentum_6m | −0.0148 | −0.107 | −0.0213 | −0.0216 | −0.0188 | −0.0107 | −0.0035 | −0.0131 | +| momentum_3m | −0.0148 | −0.103 | −0.0092 | −0.0143 | −0.0284 | −0.0090 | −0.0060 | −0.0182 | +| ep | +0.0118 | +0.089 | +0.0224 | +0.0092 | +0.0051 | +0.0003 | +0.0035 | +0.0290 | +| momentum_12m | −0.0073 | −0.058 | −0.0112 | −0.0172 | −0.0138 | −0.0154 | +0.0050 | −0.0042 | +| efficiency_ratio | −0.0064 | −0.054 | +0.0065 | −0.0092 | −0.0155 | −0.0016 | −0.0089 | −0.0052 | +| pure_volatility | +0.0023 | +0.020 | +0.0057 | +0.0061 | −0.0005 | +0.0071 | +0.0106 | +0.0046 | + +估值因子原始面板（未中性化）：EP 全期 IC **+0.0167**、ICIR **+0.089**；BP **+0.0246 / +0.145**；六年方向全正。EP 与换手 20d 的截面 rank 相关中位数 **−0.231**（中等负相关，旧报告“相关性低”偏乐观）。 + +结论未变：这个池子的横截面信息主要是**低风险（低波/低换手）+ 便宜（EP/BP）**，动量类全部是反转。但 IC 的方向稳定 ≠ 策略 alpha——见下一节。 + +## 5. 风格归因：风格暴露 vs 残余 alpha（R19b + R20 复算） + +用同缓存面板构造日频风格组合（因子值 t 日、收益 t→t+1，无前视）：市场（同池等权）、低换手（低−高五分位）、低波（低−高）、高 EP（高−低）、规模（成交额小−大）。对 headline 变体的**净 OOS 日收益**做 Newey-West(5) 回归。R19b 产物：`r19b_style_attr_2026-10-24.json`；R20 四个重跑变体用新的 OOS 序列复算：`r20_style_attr_2026-10-24.json`。 + +### 风格组合本身（2018–2025，gross，日频） + +| 风格 | 年化均值 | 年化波动 | Sharpe | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| MKT（同池等权） | +6.29% | 21.78% | 0.29 | +| LOW_TURN（低−高换手） | +21.06% | 21.28% | 0.99 | +| LOW_VOL（低−高波动） | +13.85% | 22.09% | 0.63 | +| HIGH_EP（高−低 EP） | +1.12% | 18.44% | 0.06 | +| SMALL（小−大成交额） | +23.12% | 19.50% | 1.19 | + +### 回归结果（净 OOS 日收益，Newey-West 5） + +| 变体 | alpha（年化） | t(alpha) | R² | MKT β (t) | LOW_TURN (t) | LOW_VOL (t) | HIGH_EP (t) | SMALL (t) | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| ep_turn_sector（R20） | +1.22% | **0.52** | 0.87 | 0.79 (61.5) | 0.10 (6.1) | 0.05 (2.9) | 0.08 (6.5) | −0.05 (−4.5) | +| ep_turn_ss（R20） | −0.13% | **−0.05** | 0.87 | 0.80 (61.6) | 0.10 (5.8) | 0.07 (3.8) | 0.09 (7.8) | −0.08 (−7.8) | +| lowvol_sector（R20） | +1.91% | **0.79** | 0.87 | 0.79 (58.3) | 0.09 (5.2) | 0.07 (3.8) | 0.05 (4.7) | −0.03 (−2.6) | +| turnover60_plain（R19b） | +2.64% | **1.14** | 0.87 | 0.82 (71.0) | 0.20 (10.0) | 0.05 (2.2) | 0.05 (4.3) | −0.08 (−7.2) | +| turnover60_sector（R20） | +0.29% | **0.12** | 0.85 | 0.76 (55.5) | 0.10 (5.1) | 0.05 (2.4) | 0.05 (4.1) | −0.04 (−3.5) | + +**明确结论：残余 alpha 在统计上不显著。** R²=0.85–0.87 表示策略日收益的绝大部分方差由“市场 + 低换手 + 低波 + 便宜 + 规模”解释；所有变体的 alpha 在 −0.1% ~ +2.6%/年、|t| ≤ 1.14（R20 四行的最高 t 为 lowvol_sector 0.79；turnover60_plain 的 1.14 是 R19b 旧口径）。行业中性化后的四个 R20 候选 alpha 在 −0.1% ~ +1.9%/年、|t| ≤ 0.79，与旧报告“中性化后仍有残余 alpha”的说法相反。 + +## 6. 稳健性：PIT 大小盘拆分（R19b 重跑） + +旧版用 **2018–2025 全样本**平均成交额切半——用未来成交额定义历史大小盘（评审 MAJOR，结论在 PIT 分组下反转）。本轮改用 **2018-01-01..2019-12-31**（首个 OOS 折之前）的平均成交额分组：小盘 50 / 大盘 51，2020+ 同一 WF 流程评估。产物：`r19b_size_split_2026-10-24.json`。 + +| 变体 | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p（excess，N=48） | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| turnover20_plain（全池参照） | 0.663 | 13.55% | −17.59% | 0.7223 | +| turnover20 大盘半池（PIT 2018-19） | **0.345** | 8.99% | −23.40% | 0.8957 | +| turnover20 小盘半池（PIT 2018-19） | **0.633** | 14.07% | −18.40% | 0.7397 | + +**结论反转并保持**：PIT 分组下低换手溢价在**小盘半池更强**（0.633 vs 0.345），旧报告“大盘更强、对容量是利好”的结论不成立。注意小盘半池是用 2018–19 的成交额定义的“当年小盘”，不等于今天的流动性；这也不是全市场的大小盘结论（池子只有 000xxx）。 + +## 7. 容量曲线（重跑，因果波动率） + +`backtest/capacity.py` 的默认波动率在 R19a 改为因果口径（`rolling(20).std().shift(1)`），本轮用修正后的估计器重跑 EP+换手候选（`capacity_run_ep_turn.py`，全期一次回测的 2020+ 基线，非 walk-forward）。产物：`capacity_curve_ep_turn_oos_2026-10-24.json`。 + +| AUM | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | 平均参与率 | 封顶资产-日 | 冲击成本 | +|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 100 万 | 0.594 | 13.83% | −18.79% | 0.01% | 0 | 0 bps | +| 2 000 万 | 0.593 | 13.80% | −18.79% | 0.25% | 10 | 21 bps | +| 1 亿 | 0.569 | 13.26% | −18.74% | 1.43% | 132 | 155 bps | +| 2 亿 | 0.513 | 12.09% | −18.55% | 3.12% | 285 | 372 bps | +| 5 亿 | 0.443 | 10.55% | −19.15% | 8.67% | 623 | 1091 bps | + +- 曲线在测试上限 5 亿处 Sharpe 仍 **0.443 > 0.3**，**在 5 亿处仍未触及阈值（≥5 亿，超出测试上限属外推）**；旧版对应值为 0.420（同样未触及）。R18 + 同日门禁 + 因果波动率的合并修正让各档 Sharpe 上移约 0.02–0.03（1M：0.565→0.594；1M 档 capped_days=0，因果波动率只在参与率封顶时进入，故这一增量主要来自 R18/门禁，不是 causal vol 单独贡献）。 +- **估计器局限（必须随表引用）**： + 1. 容量表基线是**全期一次回测**（2020+，2M 资金的引擎 Sharpe 0.534），不是 WF OOS（同信号 WF Sharpe 0.47）；估计器 1M 档是缩放模拟（0.594），与引擎 2M 基线不是同一 AUM/同一记账路径，约 0.06 的口径差。 + 2. 估计器对 `capital` 状态**重复扣费**：先 `capital -= cost_rate*capital`，又在 `net_return` 里减一次成本再乘回 capital；日收益序列只扣一次（指标不受影响），但后续参与率/冲击额被系统性低估，高 AUM 档的容量偏乐观。 + 3. 估计器内部 `compute_costs()` 未传入量价，**基础滑点回退为固定 10bps**（引擎基线也有一次该告警）；显式平方根冲击只在参与率封顶时另计。冲击 bps 是 2020+ 的**累计值**，不是年化。 + 4. “封顶天数”实际是**资产-日**数（每个资产每天 +1），不是交易日数。 + 5. 估计器把目标权重统一映射到下一交易日执行，**忽略门禁导致的 blocked/superseded 延迟**；OOS 段有 **6 次** superseded 事件（2024-01-31 一次涉及 19 个资产），影响方向是低估延迟成本。 + 6. 冲击成本核心是**平方根规则**（`sqrt(参与率)×波动率`），不是完整 Almgren-Chriss 标定；系数未用实盘 TCA 校准。 + +## 8. 对抗评审与修正（三份评审的 BLOCKER/MAJOR 与处置） + +三份独立评审报告：`review_overfit_backtest.md`（回测/成本/执行）、`review_overfit_leakage.md`（前视/泄漏）、`review_overfit_statistics.md`（过拟合/多重检验）。修复提交在 R18/R19a，重跑在 R19b。 + +| # | 评审发现 | 等级 | 处置 | +|---|---|---|---| +| 1 | **涨跌停门禁用次日收益**判定当日成交（一日前视；方向损害策略） | **BLOCKER**（backtest #3 / leakage B1） | R19a `c3a81d6`：工具与研究脚本改用同日 `pct_chg`；测试 `test_limit_gates_use_same_day_pct`；本轮全部重跑已用修正口径 | +| 2 | **gross 超配**：OOS 70 期里 39 期 gross>1（最高 107.2%），单票实现层最高 6.58% | **BLOCKER**（backtest #4） | R18 `61d37c7`+`4d0150a`（`120a48b` 修尘埃单）：买入受可用现金约束等比缩放，`sum(weights) ≤ 1+1e-9`，golden 测试守护；单票上限仍为**目标层约束**（限制清单） | +| 3 | **fallback 计数器结构性假零** | **BLOCKER**（backtest #4） | R19a `c3a81d6`：同时监听引擎与优化器 logger、取 max；本轮从引擎 `summary` 直接取数，5 个 headline 变体全部为 0（真实零） | +| 4 | **基准行不可复现、标签混用**（0.222/4.50%/−25.71%：Sharpe/年化对不上，MDD 与日频等权一致但标成 buy&hold） | **MAJOR**（backtest #5 / statistics #4） | R19a `813dcaa`（披露）、`c3a81d6`（双基准+超额 DSR）、`869f64c`（IR 不再二次扣 rf）、`fb34297`+`fb1a554`（buy&hold 末日标签）；R19b 重跑并修正 buy&hold 定义：日频等权 0.294/9.00%/−25.71%，constant-share buy&hold 0.243/8.06%/−33.52% | +| 5 | **DSR trial 数低估**：报告 ~20，实际 44–48 个配置 / 78 个被看过的 Sharpe | **MAJOR**（statistics #1 / leakage M3） | R19b 统一 `num_trials=48`；p 值升至 0.71–0.89 | +| 6 | **DSR 用 gross 收益**而表格是超额收益 | **MAJOR**（statistics #2） | R19a `c3a81d6`：DSR 输入 `oos − 3%/252`；R19b 全部用 excess 口径 | +| 7 | **“保守候选 0.32–0.37 是残余 alpha”不成立**（相对同池等权超额接近 0/为负、风格 alpha 不显著） | **MAJOR**（statistics #3） | R19b 五因子风格归因重跑（§5）：alpha t ≤ 1.14（旧评审口径 t≤0.26；R19b 同口径 ep_turn_ss/lowvol_sector 0.23–0.45，turnover60_sector −0.42）；R20 用新 OOS 序列复算 t=0.52/−0.05/0.79/0.12，结论不变：风格暴露主导 | +| 8 | **低波因子用前向收益面板**（batch 9/8） | **MAJOR**（leakage M2） | R19a：`pct.rolling` 因果版（ICIR −0.109→−0.196）；R19b `lowvol_sector` 用因果波动率重跑 | +| 9 | **大小盘拆半用全样本成交额**（PIT 分组下方向反转） | **MAJOR**（leakage M1） | R19a：`real_variants4` 改 2018–19 分组；R19b 重跑确认反转（§6） | +| 10 | **容量估计器波动率含当日前向收益** + 估计器与引擎不一致 | **MAJOR**（leakage m5 / backtest #2） | R19a `fb1c8cf`：`default_volatility` 因果 shift；R19b 重跑并把估计器其余局限写入 §7（重复扣费/非 WF 基线/资产-日等**未改代码**） | +| 11 | **股票池全是 000xxx**（外部有效性） | **MAJOR**（backtest 其他 MAJOR） | 不可用现有缓存修复；在 §1/§9 显著披露 | +| 12 | **MVO alpha 尺度与文档不一致**（z-score vs rank） | **MAJOR**（backtest §4.7） | R20 `e3177f9`：`WalkForwardValidator` 新增 `rank_normalize_signal`（默认 False，golden 守护逐位不变）；研究链路四个变体重跑改用 rank[-0.5,0.5]（§2/§3）。`turnover60_plain` 仍为旧口径；生产工具仍走旧口径（§9 #11） | +| 13 | 21 只退市 → 实际 **12 只**；无退市名单说法与 metadata 矛盾 | MINOR（leakage m3） | 本报告 §1 已更正 | +| 14 | “月末收盘成交” → 实际**信号日下一交易日收盘** | MINOR（leakage m4） | 本报告 §2/§9 已更正 | +| 15 | 行业映射静态最新（轻度前视） | MINOR（leakage m2） | R19a `813dcaa` 在工具 JSON/Markdown 披露；本报告 §1/§9 披露 | +| 16 | EP 与换手“相关性低” → 实测中位 −0.23 | MINOR（leakage m9） | §4 已更正为 −0.231 | +| 17 | “12 折始终选中”是空陈述（top-2 of 2） | MINOR（statistics #5） | §2 已注明选择器无选择空间 | + +**评审后仍存在的未决限制**：容量估计器的重复扣费与非 WF 基线（#10 的残余部分）、MVO alpha 尺度（#12）、000xxx 池（#11）。这些不影响本轮“不显著”的结论方向，但限制任何“容量很大/风险校准精确”的表述。 + +## 9. 诚实的限制（下结论前必须读） + +1. **股票池**：101 只**全部是 000xxx 深市主板**；无沪市/创业板/科创板/北交所，无全市场样本；且池子限定为**2018 年已有数据**的股票，2018 年后 IPO 不在池内。所有“A 股”表述仅指该池。 +2. **行业映射静态最新**（无历史 effective_date），行业中性化有轻度前视；12 只股票无行业（Unknown）。成交额是 **size 代理**（不是真实市值），与换手共线，行业+成交额中性化会过度控制，`ep_turn_ss` 的 0.35（R20）应视为下界而非精确的纯 alpha（旧报告已披露，本轮保留）。 +3. **无真正 holdout**：2020–2025 这段 OOS 被 44–48 个配置与 2018–2025 全样本因子 IC 扫描反复使用；Walk-Forward 只挡住“折内选因子”，挡不住“研究者选哪些变体/因子家族”。 +4. **44–48 个变体搜索**：DSR 已按 N=48 校正，但这仍只是下界（真实“被看过的 Sharpe”更多）；跨变体选择偏差无法在样本内完全消除。 +5. **成本**：冲击实为平方根（`sqrt(参与率)×波动率`），系数硬编码、未用实盘 TCA 校准；成本含最低佣金 5 元/单与过户费 0.001% 双边，但**整手（100 股）未在回测层强制**（权重层面执行，目标组合里的 342 元 dust 持仓实盘买不了 1 手）。 +6. **单票与行业上限都是目标层约束**：优化器输出（R20 的 cap 证据口径）满足 5% 单票与 30% 行业上限，但执行层受现金、换手与执行门禁共同影响；引擎 `weights_history` 记录的是**执行后**权重，可能因价格漂移/延迟成交高于目标 cap，因此 R20 研究脚本同时报告 target（权威）与 executed（参考）两组证据。 +7. **退市 12 只**：退市后 `tradable_mask=False`，卖单永久阻塞，持仓以 0 收益挂在账本里——不是前视，但会低估退市损失/占用权重。R19a 工具的 buy&hold 截面均值会把退市股权重隐性再平衡进存续股（本轮已用 carry-forward 修正，工具本体待下一轮修复）。 +8. **次交易日收盘成交**：不是月末收盘；无盘中路径、无 T+1 日内约束、涨跌停用 9.8% 近似（10% 板块等价；不含 ST 5%、创业板/科创板 20%）。 +9. **其他**：无 ST 历史；无 PIT 财务面板；`pe_ttm`/`pb_mrq` 的公告时点无法完全审计；MVO alpha 口径已在研究链路对齐（R20 rank 归一化；生产工具尚未接入，见 #11）；OOS 末日的零收益处理；DSR 252 日基 vs `all_metrics` 日历基；基准是 gross（无成本）而策略是净成本。 +10. **未做实盘/仿真真实行情**：本机网络不可用；paper 冒烟（30 天）用的是模拟行情，只验证运维链路，不是策略表现。 +11. **生产研究工具尚未接入 R20 口径（本轮禁改 tools）**：`tools/real_data_research.py` 仍以单一 "A" 行业调用 Walk-Forward（其行业上限同样被静默跳过），也未打开 `rank_normalize_signal`。本轮只对齐了 `.scratch` 研究链路；下一轮应把真实行业映射与 rank 归一化接进工具并补测试。`turnover60_plain` 同理仍是 R19b 口径。 + +## 10. 可执行目标组合（2025-12-31，缓存数据末日）——style tilt 演示，不是已验证 alpha + +用 `tools/daily_signal.py` 在真实缓存上重新生成（PIT，as_of = 2025-12-31，EP+turnover20d、行业中性、5% 单票、组合层 30% 行业上限、200 万）： + +- 持仓 **26 只**，单票 5% 上限，gross 100%，优化器回退 0；其中 **14 只**权重达到 ~5% 上限（前十大：000423、000429、000027、000333、000404、000498、000028、000403、000019、000089）； +- **组合层行业上限（R26）**：真实行业映射传入优化器（`sector_map` + `max_sector_exposure=0.30`），目标最大行业权重 **14.60%**（F51），**0 个行业顶格**；诊断字段 `max_sector_weight` / `n_sector_cap_binding` 与 `sector_cap.sector_weights` 记录在 JSON 中。与上一版（无行业 cap、同一缓存）相比持仓完全相同，加入约束后单个权重最大变动 **1.86e-5**（`--max-sector 1.0` 重跑仍与上一版逐位一致，证明差异只来自新约束）； +- IC 权重（仅用 2024-12-18..2025-12-30 的 252 个观测，全部早于 as_of）：EP +0.442（IC +0.029）、低换手 −0.558（IC −0.037）； +- 首次建仓单边换手约 50%（无前序持仓，换手上限不适用于首建）； +- **可执行性提醒**：000151 的目标权重 0.017%（约 342 元）不足 1 手（100 股）；000066 的 EP 为 NaN（亏损股）仍拿到 5%——实盘执行前需按整手取整/剔除 dust 并处理 NaN 因子，回测层未强制整手。 +- 工具确定性：同一输入重跑 JSON 逐字节一致；JSON 带 `disclaimer`、CSV 首行带 `#` 注释，两者都标注 `style tilt demo, not validated alpha`。CSV 读取需 `pd.read_csv(..., comment='#')`（否则首行注释会被当作表头）。 + +产物：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.json` / `.csv`。 + +**重要**：as_of 是缓存数据末日（2025-12-31），不是今天；该组合是**低换手/价值风格的多头暴露演示**，研究未证明其存在超出风格的 alpha，**不构成投资建议**。真实下单前必须先用最新数据重跑本工具。 + +## 11. 波动率目标实验（R22，净成本 OOS） + +**问题**：在不新增因子的前提下，能否用暴露管理（平台 `PortfolioConstraints.target_volatility`）改善风险调整收益？预注册六组（`.scratch/orchestrate/r22_voltarget.py`），判定标准在看到结果前写死：只有 vol target 在**多数变体**上同时把最大回撤改善 ≥2pp 且调整后 Sharpe（现金按 1.5% 年化计息）落差 ≤0.05，才算“有稳健的暴露管理收益”，否则结论为“机械性降杠杆，不建议启用”。 + +口径与 §3 完全一致（OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1433 天；5% 单票、30% 行业、月度、impact 成本、12 折 expanding WF、真实行业映射、rank 归一化 alpha、R18 现金约束）。六组全部列出，未挑选参数： + +| 组 | 变体 | 目标波动 | Sharpe | 调整后 Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | MDD 改善 | 平均 gross | 实现波动 | DSR p | 引擎回退 | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| R22-01 | ep_turn_sector | 0（基线） | 0.490 | 0.490 | 10.77% | −19.09% | — | 0.999 | 15.85% | 0.8404 | 0 | +| R22-02 | ep_turn_sector | 0.12 | 0.441 | 0.461 | 8.95% | −18.04% | 1.05pp | 0.833 | 13.51% | 0.8694 | 0 | +| R22-03 | ep_turn_sector | 0.15 | 0.486 | 0.492 | 10.41% | −19.24% | −0.15pp | 0.950 | 15.23% | 0.8432 | 0 | +| R22-04 | turnover60_sector | 0.12 | 0.426 | 0.443 | 8.67% | −18.82% | 1.15pp | 0.854 | 13.32% | 0.8767 | 0 | +| R22-05 | lowvol_sector | 0.12 | 0.467 | 0.487 | 9.26% | −17.59% | 0.02pp | 0.838 | 13.40% | 0.8569 | 0 | +| R22-06 | ep_turn_ss | 0.12 | 0.334 | 0.353 | 7.52% | −19.33% | 3.23pp | 0.838 | 13.51% | 0.9128 | 0 | + +**判定：1/5 通过（仅 R22-06），未达多数 → “机械性降杠杆，风险收益同比缩放，不改变信息比率”，不建议启用。** 通过项也不稳：`ep_turn_ss` 本身是最弱变体（Sharpe 0.334、DSR p=0.913），其回撤改善来自 2021–2024 长回撤期平均 gross 只有 0.895；其余四组的 MDD 改善都 <1.2pp。 + +**为什么 MDD 不降**：vol target 按**事前**协方差波动缩放，只在事前波动高时降仓，不能在回撤开始时及时降杠杆。2021-09-13→2022-04-26 回撤期间，`ep@0.12` / `turnover60@0.12` 平均 gross 仍为 0.987 / 0.990（`ep@0.15` 为 1.000），几乎没有保护；`lowvol@0.12` 在其 2023-08→2024-09 回撤期平均 gross 0.958，MDD 仅从 −17.61% 到 −17.59%；`ss@0.12` 在其 2021–2024 长回撤期平均 gross 0.895。日超额 mean/std Sharpe（原始口径）同样没有稳定改善：ep@0.12 0.480 vs 基线 0.536，lowvol@0.12 0.504 vs 0.613，ss@0.12 0.382 vs 0.412，t60@0.12 0.466 vs 0.477，ep@0.15 0.530 vs 0.536（现金按 1.5% 计息后为 0.499 / 0.522 / 0.400 / 0.482 / 0.534）；vt 与基线的日收益相关 0.985（0.12）/0.996（0.15），beta 0.84/0.96，确认主要是缩放而非新信息。 + +**验证与口径**： + +- **vol target 真实绑定**：0.12 组 OOS 日均 gross 0.833–0.854（0.15 组 0.950），全跑程 gross ≤1（最大 1+4e-14，浮点噪声；部分调仓事前波动低于目标时未缩放），实现年化波动 13.3–13.5%，为目标 0.12 的 1.11–1.13 倍；0.15 组实现 15.23%（1.02 倍）。全部落在目标 ±30% 容差内；平均 gross <1 成立。`_limit_turnover` 只是向上一期（同样已缩放）权重的凸组合，不会把现金混回满仓。 +- **平均 gross 重建**：引擎只在 `weights_history` 暴露调仓账本，部分成交/资金缩放会让最终账本晚于调度执行日。本轮在研究报告层挂接 `CostModel.compute_costs`（不改平台代码）记录每个成交日的 `(buy−sell)/portfolio_value` 与成本（`compute_costs` 在给定 `portfolio_value` 时已返回占净值比例），再用恒等式 `g_next = g(1+r_s)/(1+g·r_s)`、`r_s=(r_p+cost_ret)/g` 精确重建日频 gross；OOS 无缺日。对结构上首日完成的调仓（首个成交日与下一调仓首个成交日之间无其它成交），重放 gross 与 `weights_history` 全部逐位一致、0 反例（六组 119/119、201/201、169/169、241/241、222/222、214/214，误差 ≤1e-9）；其余为多日重试。权重 stepwise 近似与精确路径最大差 4.4–4.8pp，说明该修正不是形式主义。**评审修正**：首版曾把已归一化的成本再除以一次组合净值，平均 gross 低报 0.11–0.43pp、调整后 Sharpe 低报 ≤5.8e-4；修正后全部判定不变。 +- **调整后 Sharpe**：`oos + (1−gross_daily)×(1.015^(1/ppy)−1)`，`ppy≈243.33`，再用平台 `all_metrics`（`(CAGR−3%)/年化波动`）；仅作敏感性说明，引擎未改。现金利息把 0.12 组平台 Sharpe 抬高约 0.02（例：ep 0.441→0.461）。 +- **fallback**：六组引擎 `summary["n_optimizer_fallbacks"]` 全为 0，vol target 没有走 EqualWeight 旁路（该旁路不应用 target_volatility）。 +- **无前视**：overlay 只缩放既有 MVO 目标；协方差只用 rdate 之前 252 天，信号按 fold 内 train-only IC 权重，本轮未改数据/引擎。 +- **确定性**：`ep_turn_sector@0.12` 两次独立运行，JSON 除 `runtime_s` 外逐位一致；R22-01 与 R20 的 `ep_turn_sector` 在 Sharpe/年化/MDD 上逐位一致（0.4900175097 / 10.76602943% / −19.08974397%）。 +- **DSR**：excess 口径、N=53（本轮新增 5 个预注册配置计入搜索数）；六组 p=0.840–0.913，全部不显著。 + +### 年度收益 + +| 组 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| R22-01 ep 基线 | +23.2% | +21.7% | −5.9% | +0.7% | +6.3% | +20.9% | +| R22-02 ep @0.12 | +16.7% | +21.5% | −6.2% | +2.2% | +6.4% | +14.6% | +| R22-03 ep @0.15 | +21.6% | +21.5% | −5.6% | +1.1% | +7.1% | +18.7% | +| R22-04 turnover60 @0.12 | +18.4% | +18.7% | −6.3% | +1.5% | +6.8% | +14.3% | +| R22-05 lowvol @0.12 | +17.6% | +26.2% | −4.2% | +3.7% | +4.2% | +9.7% | +| R22-06 ep_ss @0.12 | +13.5% | +20.3% | −7.3% | +0.3% | +7.0% | +12.9% | + +**结论**：波动率目标在本数据集上只是把仓位按事后看并不合时的规则缩放：0.12 组风险降 12.7–14.7%、收益降 9.2–23.0%；0.15 组风险降 3.9%、收益降 3.3%；最大回撤多数不变（唯一例外是最弱的 `ep_turn_ss`）。若目标是降风险，直接设定固定 gross 上限（如 0.85）或明确的回撤控制规则更可预期；**不建议把 target_volatility 作为默认开关启用**。 + +产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r22_results/r22_voltarget_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、每组 `r22__vt_2026-10-24.{json,csv}`、`cc_report_R22_voltarget.md`、`review_R22.md`。 + +## 12. 正交 alpha 筛选（预注册，R23，零结果） + +**问题**：已有研究证明现有组合主要是市场 + 低换手/低波/价值/规模风格暴露（§5、§9）；那么**与这些风格正交**的残余信息能否赚钱？R23 预注册 5 个候选因子（任务书 §1，只有这 5 个、不许加），全部用**同日已实现数据**构造（`pct` 同日收益，不用 `returns = pct.shift(-1)` 前向面板），缩尾 1/99 → zscore → 静态行业中性（静态最新分类、无 effective_date，属轻度前视，见 §1/§9）： + +| 因子 | 定义 | 方向 | +|---|---|---| +| `lottery` | −max(pct, 20 日) | 预注册为负（彩票效应） | +| `ivol` | −60 日对 EW 市场回归的残差波动 | 预注册为负 | +| `amihud` | mean(\|pct\| / amount, 20 日) | 预注册为正（非流动性） | +| `overnight` | mean(close/open − 1, 20 日) | 不翻转，WF 内 train-only IC 定符号 | +| `abn_volume` | mean(volume / 前 120 日均量, 20 日) | 不翻转，WF 内 train-only IC 定符号 | + +（命名说明：按任务书预注册定义，`overnight = close/open − 1` 是同日开→收的日内收益，不是传统隔夜跳空 `open_t/close_{t−1} − 1`；本轮严格按任务书公式实现。） + +评估口径与 §3/§11 完全一致（expanding 504/126/126、purge 5、embargo 5、月度、5% 单票、30% 行业、rank 归一化、R18 现金约束、impact、2M）；DSR excess **N=49**（家族 44 + 本轮 5）；风格残差检验为对 MKT + LOW_TURN + LOW_VOL + HIGH_EP + SMALL 的 OLS 回归（经典标准误为主，Newey-West(5) 作稳健性）。判定先写死：**alpha t > 2 且 DSR p < 0.1 才算候选，否则未通过；零结果合法**。 + +| 因子 | mean IC | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (N=49) | alpha 年化 | t(alpha) OLS [NW5] | corr EP+换手 | corr 换手60 | 判定 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| lottery | +0.032 | 0.559 | 11.82% | −19.48% | 0.7936 | +1.43% | 0.60 [0.61] | 0.981 | 0.978 | 未通过 | +| ivol | +0.034 | 0.546 | 11.82% | −19.90% | 0.8007 | +1.24% | 0.51 [0.50] | 0.982 | 0.981 | 未通过 | +| amihud | +0.013 | 0.511 | 11.38% | −20.06% | 0.8211 | +0.98% | 0.36 [0.36] | 0.943 | 0.949 | 未通过 | +| overnight | −0.031 | 0.582 | 12.24% | −22.51% | 0.7793 | +2.45% | 1.03 [1.00] | 0.975 | 0.971 | 未通过 | +| abn_volume | −0.021 | 0.434 | 9.57% | −20.11% | 0.8634 | +0.14% | 0.06 [0.06] | 0.967 | 0.963 | 未通过 | + +**判定：0/5 通过 → 零结果。** 全部 12 折、1433 个 OOS 日、优化器回退 0。五个单因子策略的风格回归 R² = 0.85–0.88，MKT beta 0.76–0.81；残余 alpha 在 **+0.14% ~ +2.45%/年**、|t| ≤ 1.03，没有一个显著；DSR p 0.78–0.86。它们与现有 `ep_turn_sector` 的日收益相关 **0.943–0.982**（与 `turnover60_sector` 0.949–0.981）——在这个 101 只 000xxx 池 + 5% 单票 + MVO 约束下，不同单因子收敛到几乎同一个多头风格篮子，**“正交”在组合层面没有发生**。`overnight` 是全场最强（alpha +2.45%/年、t=1.03），但仍远低于双重门槛；`abn_volume` 的残余 alpha 几乎精确为零。 + +**验证**：因子因果性毒化测试（t=2023-12-29，未来数据毒化后 t 日及以前逐位不变；毒化确实改变未来值）5/5 PASS；OLS 手算样例 + scipy + statsmodels 三路交叉核验一致；5 个因子各两次独立运行的 JSON（去 runtime）逐位一致 5/5；`pytest tests/test_backtest/test_walkforward.py` 33 passed；`ruff` 通过。`amihud` 有 3/12 折在 BH-FDR 下无幸存者而回退 top-|ICIR|（单因子仍选中 `amihud`，信号不变），其余因子无回退。**明确声明**：这是探索性预注册筛选，零结果不改变任何平台默认行为，也不构成投资建议；5 个因子都未通过，因此没有“候选”可进入 forward 验证。 + +产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r23_orthogonal.py`、`r23_orthogonal_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r23_results/`、`r23_capture/`、`r23_checks_2026-10-24.json`、`r23_determinism_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R23_orthogonal.md`、`review_R23.md`。 + +## 13. 生产链路交叉验证（R24，月度滚动 paper 台账） + +> **R26 更新**：生产工具已补上组合层 30% 行业上限并重生成目标与台账；本节数字同步为**当前（含行业 cap）台账**，与 R24 旧（无 cap）口径的差异对比见 §15。 + +**问题**：§3 的 headline 来自研究链路（`.scratch` 的 Walk-Forward 引擎）。生产链路（`tools/daily_signal.py` 出目标 → `tools/paper_track.py` 记账）在同一段历史上能否复现同一量级？R24 用**月度滚动 paper 台账**做独立交叉验证：每月末用生产工具生成目标（EP+turnover20d、行业中性、5% 单票、200 万、`prev_weights` 传上一期），信号日下一交易日收盘调仓（卖出先、买入受现金与成本约束），CostModel 按 R9 口径（股数×原始价）扣成本，持仓在调仓间漂移、现金零收益，逐日连续记 NAV。 + +### 实现与数据 + +- **工具**：`tools/paper_track.py` 新增滚动模式（`--targets-dir` / `--targets`）；单目标 `--target` 路径未改动，旧行为由逐字节 golden 测试守护（R21 的 27 个测试全部保留并通过）。 +- **目标**：2020-01..2025-12 共 72 个月末（`.scratch/orchestrate/gen_roll_targets.py`，目标在 `.scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/`，不入 git）。72 个目标优化器回退全部为 0；单边月换手估计均值 5.8%。目标是含组合层 30% 行业上限的 R26 版本：旧口径 5/72 个月最大行业权重 >30%（最高 33.26%），新口径 0/72（最高 30.00%，其中 4 个月顶格）；仅 7/72 个月的持仓集合发生变化（2021-03..2021-07 的 4 次为 cap 直接相关，另 3 次为 0.01%–0.054% 的 dust 级阈值穿越；行业分布不限于 K70）。2025-12-31 目标因缓存末日没有后续交易日，台账把它记为 **pending**（不执行），实际执行 **71 次 = 1 次建仓 + 70 次换月**。 +- **台账**：`docs/research/paper_track/roll_2020_2025/nav.csv` / `summary.json`，2020-02-03..2025-12-31，1439 个会话，200 万初始资金，impact 成本。 +- **幂等**：同一 targets+cache 重复运行，`nav.csv` / `summary.json` **逐字节一致**（sha256 校验通过）。 +- **执行统计**：5 次调仓因现金/卖单受阻把买入按 0.42–0.99 缩放；35 次 blocked buy（涨跌停/停牌/零量）、13 次 blocked sell（跌停/停牌）、3 次 20 日 stale 清算；159 个 stale 资产-日（分布在 154 个 stale 交易日）。成本合计 **45,334.13 CNY**（初始资金的 2.27%；按平均净值 315 万计年均约 0.24%）。 + +### 结果（与 WF 同窗口对照） + +| 链路 | 窗口 | Sharpe(rf=3%) | 年化 | 最大回撤 | 年化波动 | +|---|---|---|---:|---:|---:| +| R20 WF `ep_turn_sector`（研究链路） | 2020-02-11..2025-12-31 | 0.490 | 10.77% | −19.09% | — | +| R24 旧台账（无行业 cap） | 2020-02-11..2025-12-31 | 0.599 | 13.33% | −21.59% | 17.25% | +| **R26 台账（30% 行业 cap，当前）** | 2020-02-11..2025-12-31 | **0.603** | **13.39%** | **−21.61%** | 17.24% | +| 同池日频等权基准（台账复算） | 同上 | 0.290 | 9.03% | −25.71% | 20.83% | +| R20 报告基准 `daily_ew` | 同上 | 0.294 | 9.00% | −25.71% | — | + +- **基准口径已对齐**：台账复算的基准 Sharpe / 年化 / MDD 与研究链路几乎一致（0.290 vs 0.294、9.03% vs 9.00%、−25.71% 完全相同），说明窗口、复权收益与基准定义没有记账错位；策略差异不是基准或窗口口径造成的。基准 0.03pp 的年化差来自末日约定：台账按收盘日记账，2025-12-31 仍有当日已实现收益；WF 引擎把 OOS 末日（无前向收益）按 0 处理，基准指标在 1432 个有效日上计算。 +- **全窗口**（2020-02-03 起，多 6 个会话）为 Sharpe 0.649 / 年化 14.19% / MDD −21.61%；2020-02-03..02-10 的疫情反弹贡献约 +0.8pp 年化。按工具自身 252 日年化口径，`summary.json` 记录 Sharpe 0.680 / 年化 14.72% / MDD −21.61%。 +- **年度收益（同窗口，生产台账 vs R20 WF）**：2020 +27.5% vs +23.2%，2021 +22.7% vs +21.7%，2022 −5.1% vs −5.9%，2023 +5.4% vs +0.7%，2024 +11.5% vs +6.3%，2025 +20.2% vs +20.9%。轨迹同向；差异集中在 2020 与 2023/2024（生产链路更高）。 + +### 差异来源（按证据强度排序） + +1. **（R24 当时的）生产工具没有组合层行业上限——R26 已修复**：R24 时 `tools/daily_signal.py` 的约束是 `max_sector_exposure=1.0`、`sector_map=None`——只在因子层面做行业中性化，组合权重不设行业 cap；R20 研究链路把真实行业映射接进引擎，30% cap 真实生效（790 次目标中 44 次顶格）。R24 旧目标 72 个月中有 **5 个月**最大行业权重 >30%（最高 2021-01 的 33.26%，行业 K70），集中在 2020-10..2021-03 的房地产行情。R26 给生产工具补上 30% cap 后重生成，这 5 个月全部压到 ≤30%（4 个月恰好 30.00%、2021-03 为 29.54%），仅 7/72 个月持仓集合变化；详见 §15。方向解释仍适用：旧台账的 2020 超额更高，且 2021-09-13→2022-04-26 的回撤更深（旧 −21.59% vs WF −19.09%）；补 cap 后指标几乎不变（Sharpe 0.599→0.603、年化 13.33%→13.39%、MDD −21.59%→−21.61%），说明差异主要不是行业集中度单独造成的。 +2. **信号权重刷新频率**：WF 每个 126 日 fold 用 train-only 数据冻结 IC 权重（purge/embargo 各 5 天）；生产工具每月末用 as_of 之前最后 252 个 IC 观测重算（EP 权重在 −0.26..+0.48 间变化、均值 +0.21；turnover20d 均值 −0.75）。生产链路适应更快，也更容易在风格切换时多交易。 +3. **换手与成本**：台账实现单边年换手 **0.94**（71 次执行累计 5.54 / 5.89 年），高于 WF 的 0.78；月度目标刷新推高换手，行业 cap 对换手影响很小（目标单边月换手均值 5.76% vs 旧 5.76%）。成本口径与引擎相同，差异来自交易频率而不是计价方式。 +4. **调仓日网格**：生产链路固定日历月末生成、下一交易日收盘执行；WF 在每个 126 日 fold 内按引擎网格调仓，折边界改变具体成交日。生产台账在 2020-02-03 已建仓，WF 的 OOS 从 2020-02-11 才开始。 +5. **执行与记账本身不是差异源**：两边都是次日收盘、卖出先买后、R18 现金约束、R19a 同日涨跌停门禁、同一 CostModel（佣金最低 5 元/单、过户费 0.001%、印花税日期表、平方根冲击）；台账把逐资产现金/成本约束显式化，结果如上（5 次 <0.99 买入缩放、48 次 blocked trade、3 次 stale 清算）。 + +### 结论与限制 + +**结论**：补上 30% 组合层行业 cap 后，生产链路仍在同一窗口复现研究链路的量级与轨迹（基准几乎逐位一致；策略 Sharpe 0.603 vs 0.490、年化 13.39% vs 10.77%）。行业 cap 把 2020-11..2021-03 的 K70 集中度从最高 33.26% 压到 ≤30%，但该修正对全窗口指标影响很小（Sharpe +0.004、年化 +0.06pp、MDD −0.01pp），说明 R24 的差异主要来自 IC 刷新频率与更高换手，而不是行业集中度单独造成。**这不是“生产链路更优”的证据**，也不改变 §0/§5 的判断：策略仍是已知风格溢价的低换手多头实现，残余 alpha 不显著；台账只是**一条**历史路径，未做多重检验，不能据此增加任何收益承诺。 + +**限制**：目标与台账都基于同一 101 只 000xxx 缓存（§1）；行业映射静态（§9 #2）；2025-12 目标 pending 未执行；R26 起生产目标已在组合层强制 30% 行业上限（目标层；执行漂移可能让实际持仓略超），但行业映射本身仍是静态最新分类、`Unknown` 作为伪行业参与 cap；台账不建模整手、盘中和 T+1 日内约束。 + +## 14. 组合构建方式对比（R25，预注册） + +**问题**：此前全部研究都用 MVO。协方差噪声 + 成本惩罚可能让优化器不如简单规则；若简单规则更稳，应简化生产工具。R25 用**同一信号**（R20 `ep_turn_sector`：EP + turnover20d、行业中性、IC 加权、每折 `rank(pct)−0.5` 归一化）、**同一 Walk-Forward / 成本 / 门禁 / R18 现金约束**，比较五种构建。判定规则在看到任何结果前写死（任务书 §2），全部结果列出。 + +### 设计（预注册 5 种构建） + +| # | 构建 | 规则 | +|---|---|---| +| 1 | `mvo_baseline` | 平台 `MeanVarianceOptimizer`，R20 现约束（5% 单票、30% 行业、30% 换手、20bp 成本项、0.5 二次换手罚） | +| 2 | `ew_top20` | 当日信号前 20 名等权（5%/票，正好在单票上限内） | +| 3 | `ew_top30` | 前 30 名等权（1/30 = 3.33%/票） | +| 4 | `sigprop_top30` | 前 30 名按 `rank 信号 − min(rank)` 比例配权，5% 截断后按剩余空间再归一（水填充；全部同分则等权） | +| 5 | `rp_top30` | 前 30 名用平台 `RiskParityOptimizer`（Ledoit-Wolf 协方差、平台默认 252 日窗口），受 5% 单票上限 | + +- **简单规则的共同约束**：5% 单票上限；换手上限 30% 通过平台 `_limit_turnover` 与上一期**按 turnover 混合**实现（与 MVO 事后混合同口径、同一函数）；**不施加行业上限**——任务书只为简单规则预注册了 5% 单票，行业集中度作为诊断量报告（见下表），MVO 保留 30% 行业约束。简单规则没有最优化目标，20bp/0.5 只是 MVO 的目标项；五组共享同一 `CostModel`（impact、佣金 0.03%、法定印花税）。 +- **口径**：expanding WF 504/126/126、purge 5、embargo 5、月度、次日收盘成交、同日涨跌停/停牌门禁、R18 现金约束、2M 资金、OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31（1433 日）。DSR 为 excess（`r − 3%/252`），**N=53**；风格回归为 MKT + LOW_TURN + LOW_VOL + HIGH_EP + SMALL 的 Newey-West(5)（与 §5 同构造）。平均持仓数按执行后权重 `>1e-6` 计（更低的权重是 QP 尾部/换手混合的数值尘埃：MVO 按 `>1e-12` 会数到约 91 个，其中约 54 个 <1e-6）。 +- **成本拖累口径**：对每折测试窗内的逐笔成交成本事件求和 / (OOS 天数/252)。平台成本模型对每个非零权重差按 CNY 5 元最低佣金计费（R9 文档化的“每个调仓标的一笔订单”近似）；MVO 的 QP 尾部让它在很多小权重上付最低佣金（隐含 78.7 bps/边），简单规则名数少（16.7–20.2 bps/边）。**同一模型对五组一致，且这一近似对 MVO 不利**——结论方向因此更稳健。 + +### 结果（净成本 OOS） + +| 构建 | Sharpe（平台超额） | 年化 | 最大回撤 | 年化单边换手 | 成本拖累 | DSR p（N=53） | 风格 alpha（年化） | t(alpha) | 平均持仓（OOS 执行） | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| MVO 基线（R20 约束） | **0.490** | 10.77% | −19.09% | 0.778 | 1.22% | 0.8404 | +1.22% | 0.52 | 37.5 | +| 等权 top-20 | 0.457 | 11.85% | −26.28% | 3.142 | 1.07% | 0.8491 | +0.91% | 0.30 | 28.5 | +| 等权 top-30 | 0.455 | 11.73% | −24.86% | 2.707 | 1.12% | 0.8504 | +0.15% | 0.07 | 33.3 | +| 信号比例 top-30 | 0.425 | 11.11% | −25.60% | 2.975 | 1.04% | 0.8654 | +0.04% | 0.01 | 35.6 | +| 风险平价 top-30 | **0.510** | 12.30% | −21.89% | 2.606 | 1.07% | 0.8242 | +0.90% | 0.42 | 33.3 | + +**判定：0/4 通过 → 保留 MVO。** 规则：简单规则须同时满足 `Sharpe > MVO`、`MDD ≥ MVO MDD − 2pp`、`年化单边换手 ≤ 1.5 × MVO`。唯一 Sharpe 更高的是风险平价 top-30（0.510 vs 0.490），但它的最大回撤 −21.89% 比 MVO 差 **2.80pp**（超过 2pp 容差），换手 2.606 是 MVO 的 **3.35 倍**（超过 1.5 倍）；其余三种 Sharpe 更低、回撤差 5.8–7.2pp、换手 3.5–4.0 倍。没有一个简单规则接近合格线，MVO 保留为默认。 + +### 年度收益 + +| 构建 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| MVO 基线 | +23.16% | +21.73% | −5.92% | +0.68% | +6.34% | +20.94% | +| 等权 top-20 | +2.35% | +22.83% | +2.67% | −4.61% | +24.31% | +26.36% | +| 等权 top-30 | +16.95% | +21.53% | −0.41% | −0.94% | +12.85% | +21.46% | +| 信号比例 top-30 | +6.98% | +22.87% | +0.47% | −0.76% | +15.20% | +23.19% | +| 风险平价 top-30 | +16.77% | +23.65% | +0.04% | +1.55% | +11.54% | +21.02% | + +### 解释与证据 + +- **简单规则为什么输**：top-N 名单随月度 rank 信号轮换；没有目标层的换手惩罚/平滑，30% 换手上限**几乎每次调仓都顶格**（年化 2.6–3.1 vs MVO 0.78）。换手混合虽把单期换手压到 30%，但组合长期处在“上一期与本期各半”的过渡状态，持仓数反而高于名义 top-N（如等权 top-20 执行持仓 28.5），跟踪误差与成本都不低。 +- **简单规则承担了更高风险**：年化波动 18.2–19.4% vs MVO 15.9%；MKT beta 0.91–0.95 vs MVO 0.79。它们的年化收益（11.1–12.3%）高于 MVO（10.8%），相对同池日频等权的 IR 也更高（0.26–0.41），但这是**加 beta/加波动**换来的，Sharpe 反而更低（风险平价除外，见下）。简单规则彼此日收益相关 **0.975–0.996**，与 MVO 相关 0.917–0.946——仍是同一个风格篮子，只是构建方式不同。 +- **行业集中度（诊断，非约束）**：分母是 **12 个 fold 重放共 790 个目标（OOS 子集 82 个）**。等权 top-20 目标最大行业权重 **40.0%**（81/790 次 >30%；OOS 子集同样 40.0%、8/82 次，执行后 70 次调仓中 9 次 >30%），信号比例 37.3%（84/790）；等权 top-30 最高恰好 30.0%、风险平价 top-30 最高 29.7%（各 0 次 >30%）。MVO 目标最大 30.0%（44/790 次顶格、0 违规，与 §3 一致）。**简单规则没有行业 cap，这不是它们的优势来源**：即便允许集中，它们仍输。 +- **换手/成本机制**：简单规则总成交名义额 67–77M CNY、MVO 仅 18.7M（**均为 12 个 fold 各自从 2018 重放、按各 fold 自身资本计价的近似口径；跨构建比较以年化拖累 1.04–1.22% 和 bps/边 16.7–78.7 为准，二者尺度无关**）；但平台最低佣金 5 元/单让 MVO 的约 90 名小权重账本付出 147k CNY 成本（隐含 78.7 bps/边），简单规则付 128–140k CNY（16.7–20.2 bps/边）。总成本接近而 MVO 换手低 4 倍——**预期真实执行按整手/最小下单额清理尘埃单后 MVO 的成本会更低（未实测；这一近似对 MVO 不利，因此不影响“保留 MVO”的方向）**。 +- **风格归因**：五组回归 R² = 0.87–0.93；简单规则残余 alpha 仅 +0.04% ~ +0.91%/年（t 0.01–0.42），MVO 为 +1.22%（t 0.52）——**没有任何构建存在显著残余 alpha**，与 §5/§12 的结论一致。 +- **验证**（任务书 §3）：a) 自定义 optimizer 的 790 个目标全部满足 `sum ≤ 1+1e-6`、`max ≤ 5%+1e-6`、无负权重（等权 top-30 最大权重 3.33%，风险平价 5.00%）；b) `rp_top30` 两次独立运行指标与目标权重序列 sha256 完全一致（digest `7240ecd8…`，最终五组运行的 digest 与确定性复跑一致）；c) 简单规则直接调用平台 `_limit_turnover`，合成用例验证混合后换手恰为 30%、低于上限时原样返回；d) 基线 `mvo_baseline` Sharpe **0.4900175097** 与 R20 `ep_turn_sector` **逐位一致（delta 0.0）**。自检还包含 top-N 因果毒化测试（毒化未来行不改变当日选择、且毒化确实改变未来选择）与 OLS 合成样本系数还原。`pytest tests/test_backtest/test_walkforward.py` 33 passed；`ruff` 通过。 +- **确定性**：`rp_top30`（含 cvxpy 求解路径）两次独立运行 Sharpe/年化/MDD/DSR/年度与目标权重 digest 全部一致。 + +### 限制 + +与 §9 相同的池子/行业映射/成本/整手限制全部适用。补充：简单规则按预注册不设行业 cap（集中度已披露）；给简单规则加行业 cap 的版本**未实测**（加约束会缩小可行域，但不保证 OOS 方向）。平台成本模型按“每个非零权重差一笔订单”收 5 元最低佣金，对多权重账本（MVO）不利、对简单规则有利；真实执行会整手取整并清理尘埃单，但回测层未建模（未实测对照）。若上一期持仓名不在当日信号域，`_limit_turnover` 的 universe 重索引会让目标层换手最高到 31.75%（正常情形五组均为 30.000%），回测已由引擎执行日 clamp 兜底，但复用到无该 clamp 的链路需补测试。`n_funding_scaled_days`（12 折合计 8393–14152）是 R18 现金约束的逐日买入缩放计数；`rp_top30` 的部分调仓为 cvxpy `OPTIMAL_INACCURATE` 近似解（无 fallback、5% 上限满足、确定性成立）。结论只适用于这个 101 只 `000xxx` 池 + 2M 资金 + 本平台执行模型；DSR N=53 仍是搜索次数的下界，无真正 holdout。**结论：现有证据不支持用简单规则替换 MVO；平台默认保持 MVO。** + +产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r25_construct.py`、`r25_construct_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r25_results/`、`r25_capture/`、`r25_checks_2026-10-24.json`、`r25_determinism_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R25_construct.md`、`review_R25.md`。 + +## 15. 生产工具组合层约束（R26） + +**问题**：§13 的 R24 台账暴露了一个结构性缺口：`tools/daily_signal.py` 只在因子层做行业中性化，组合权重不设行业 cap（`max_sector_exposure=1.0`、`sector_map=None`），72 个月中有 5 个月最大行业权重 >30%（最高 33.26%，K70）。R25 已判定简单规则不优于 MVO（§14），因此本轮只修组合层约束，不换构建方式。 + +### 实现 + +- `--industry-map` 读取的真实行业映射现在同时用于（a）因子行业中性化和（b）组合层 `sector_map`；`PortfolioConstraints(max_sector_exposure=0.30)` 传入 `MeanVarianceOptimizer`，平台在求解器内为每个行业加 `权重 <= 30%` 的线性约束（旧代码传 `sector_map=None`，约束被静默跳过）。 +- 新增 `--max-sector`（默认 0.30）。cap 开启但没给 `--industry-map` 时直接报错（`--max-sector 1.0` 可显式关闭），避免“声称有 cap、实际没约束”。求解后按最终目标重算行业权重：`max_sector_weight > 30% + 1e-6` → `SignalError`，拒绝写出；优化器回退（等权）记录 warning。JSON 诊断新增 `max_sector_weight`、`n_sector_cap_binding` 与 `sector_cap.{n_sectors_universe,unknown_assets_universe,n_sectors_holdings,binding_sectors,sector_weights}`。 +- 测试用 monkeypatch 捕获求解器入参，证明传入的是 6 个合成 fixture 行业且 `max_sector_exposure=0.30`；真实缓存捕获为 101 只 / 38 个行业。基线的旧路径传 `sector_map=None`（约束被跳过），不是单一 `"A"`——后者是 `tools/real_data_research.py` 的旧问题（§9 #11）。两行业各 50% 的端到端用例中，30% cap 使 MVO 不可行 → 等权回退把每个行业压到 30%（gross 60%），回退被显式记录。 +- 构建方式：新增 `--construction mvo|topn_ew|topn_rank|risk_parity` 与 `--top-n`（默认 30），**默认 `mvo`**，与 R25 预注册判定（0/4 简单规则合格）一致。`topn_ew` 等权；`topn_rank` 按信号 rank 比例配权（闭式 water-fill 保证单票 cap 且保持单调）；`risk_parity` 用平台 `RiskParityOptimizer`。`topn_ew`/`topn_rank` 在加权后用闭式 water-fill 投影单票 5% cap；`risk_parity` 的单票 cap 由平台求解器施加。三条路径都在求解后投影行业 cap（只减不增、剩余现金；`risk_parity` 的行业 cap 同时也在求解器内），换手混合后再投影一次；无法满仓时会记录 warning。R25 的简单规则 OOS 结果**没有**在行业 cap 下重跑，本轮只提供入口，不改变“保留 MVO”的结论。 + +### 重生成与差异 + +- **2025-12-31 目标**：26 只持仓不变，14 只 5% 顶格，最大行业权重 **14.60%**（F51），0 个行业顶格；`--max-sector 1.0` 重跑与旧目标逐位一致，加入 30% 约束后单个权重最大变动 1.86e-5（总绝对变动 3.81e-5）。 +- **72 个月滚动目标**：旧口径 5 个月 >30%（33.26/33.11/32.37/31.55/30.98%，全部 K70）→ 新口径 **0 个月 >30%**（最高 30.00%，4 个月恰好顶格，2021-03 为 29.54%）。72 个目标优化器回退 0；仅 7/72 个月持仓集合变化（2021-03..2021-07 为 cap 直接相关；2022-01/2022-04/2025-01 为 0.01%–0.054% 小权重越过报告阈值的数值性变化）；目标单边月换手均值 5.76%（旧 5.76%）；共同持仓的单个权重最大变动 1.04pp（cap 顶格月份）。逐月证据见 `.scratch/orchestrate/r26_target_compare_2026-10-24.md` 与 `r26_checks_2026-10-24.json`。 +- **台账**（2020-02-03..2025-12-31，1439 会话，71 次调仓）：全窗 Sharpe **0.680** / 年化 **14.72%** / MDD **−21.61%**（旧 0.676 / 14.66% / −21.59%）；与 WF 同窗（2020-02-11 起）Sharpe **0.603** / 年化 **13.39%** / MDD **−21.61%**（旧 0.599 / 13.33% / −21.59%）。成本 45,334.13 CNY（旧 45,277.86）；新旧逐日 NAV 最大差 23,040.46 CNY、日收益最大差 1.78e-3。台账与目标仍标注 `paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha`。 + +### 口径一致性（只修组合层） + +生产工具与 WF 回测的差异仍在：IC 权重每月末用最近 252 个观测重算（WF 每折用 train-only 数据冻结、purge/embargo 各 5 天）；日历月末调仓、次日收盘执行（WF 在每个 126 日 fold 内按引擎网格）；静态行业映射、无 ST/PIT 财务面板、无整手。本轮只把组合层行业约束对齐到 R20 研究链路，**未改 WF 引擎、`tools/paper_track.py` 或配置**；新台账因此不是 WF 的逐日复现，只是同一约束口径下的生产链路交叉验证。行业 cap 本身对全窗指标影响很小（Sharpe +0.004、年化 +0.06pp、MDD −0.01pp），不改变 §13 关于两条链路量级一致、残余 alpha 不显著的结论。 + +**限制**：行业 cap 是目标层约束（执行漂移可能让实际持仓略超）；行业映射静态、无 effective_date，`Unknown` 作为伪行业参与 cap；`topn_ew`/`topn_rank`/`risk_parity` 在 prev 非合规时仍保证单票/行业 cap（投影+最终校验），但换手 cap 可被突破且只记录 warning——同场景 MVO 会拒绝写出；简单规则带行业 cap 的 OOS 表现未实测。 + +产物：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.{json,csv}`（重生成）、`docs/research/paper_track/roll_2020_2025/{nav.csv,summary.json}`（重生成）、`.scratch/orchestrate/r26_target_compare_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r26_checks_2026-10-24.json`、`r26_compare_roll_wf_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R26_prod_constraints.md`、`review_R26.md`。 + +## 16. 宽池外部有效性验证（R30，297 只 · 60/00/30 · 新浪） + +**问题**：§3–§15 的全部结论建立在 101 只全 `000xxx` 深市池上。低换手/低波 tilt 是否只是这个同质池的特征？本轮用新浪源抓取的 297 只跨板块后复权日线（60:106 / 00:99 / 30:92，2018-01-02..2025-12-31，字段 open/high/low/close/volume/amount/turnover/pct_chg）按**预注册**五组复跑，口径与 R20/R22/R23 一致：同日涨跌停门禁（执行日 `pct_chg`）、因果波动率（同日 pct 滚动，绝不用前向 `returns`）、R18 现金约束引擎、impact 成本（佣金 0.03% + 法定印花税）、月度调仓、5% 单票、30% 行业上限、rank 归一 MVO、静态 `industry_map.parquet`、expanding WF（504/126/126，purge/embargo 5）、2M 资金。五组：**A** `turnover_20d`（top1）；**B** `turnover_60d`（top1）；**C** `volatility_20d+60d+amplitude_20d`（top2）；**D** 十因子动物园 momentum_1m/3m/6m、vol20/60、turnover20、rsi、amplitude、efficiency_ratio、macd（top2）；**E** A + 行业中性化（top1）。同一脚本对 101 池原样复跑，作为**同代码、同口径**对照（与 R20/R19b 发布数字并列时注明因子处理差异；R23 的五个正交候选与 A–E 不同构，无直接可并列项）。 + +### 数据与质量 + +- 面板 1,942 交易日 × 297 只。来源宇宙：`metadata_v2` 中 60/00/30 前缀 4,942 只 → 剔除 336 只已退市（`delisting_date` 非空）→ 4,606 只等距抽样 300 只 → 3 只抓取失败（001312/301655/301686，空序列）→ **297 只**。**退市股票在抽样前即被剔除（设计性幸存者偏差，未校正）**；297 只全部有 2025-12-31 数据。 +- close/turnover 缺失 12.21%（上市前/停牌；100 只存在区间内缺口共 2,198 行，零成交行 3 行）。横截面：2018 年 **207–228 只（中位 216）** → 2025 年 291–297 只；OOS 期（2020+）最小 233 只。 +- **pct_chg 是构造恒等**：抓取脚本定义 `pct_chg = close.pct_change()*100`；本轮一致性检查比较 **505,827 个非 NaN 单元，max abs diff = 0**（另有 223 个停牌复牌单元仅 pct 有值、297 个每只首行 NaN），证明下游管线没有引入 shift，但**不是**独立的交易所校验。独立校验来自 6 只 Baostock 重叠股：pct 相关 **0.999419–0.999999**、turnover **0.99997–1.0**、volume/amount **1.0**，turnover 中位数逐只吻合（000001：0.5084 vs 0.5092）。turnover 为百分数（p1/中位/p99 = 0.14/1.52/22.77）。 +- Baostock 缓存 `close` 为原始价（非后复权），故 close 水平相关低（0.42–0.97）属预期；两条链路的研究价格路径都由 `pct_chg` 复利构建，收益口径可比。 +- **成本 ADV 价基**：101 池用原始 close，`volume×close` ≈ 真实成交额（逐只中位比 0.9986–1.001）；宽池 close 为后复权，直接使用会把 ADV 高估（逐只中位 2.78×、p90 11.7×），**低估 impact**。本轮宽池改用日 VWAP = amount/volume（`volume×VWAP` 即真实 CNY 成交额），与 101 池同经济口径；修正前后 wide A Sharpe 0.807→0.805、C 0.736→0.733，结论不变。 +- 其它限制：30xxxx 2020-08 后涨跌幅为 20%，±9.8% 门禁为**混合方向**（买方在 +10%~20% 日被阻断、卖方在 −10%~−20% 日被阻断；ST 5% 涨跌停日反而不被 9.8% 门禁阻断）——口径不同，不能称为单边保守；无 ST 标记/过滤；行业映射静态最新分类（同前轮）。基准有效 1,432 天（2025-12-31 的前向收益为 NaN），策略 OOS 1,433 天。 + +### 结果（净成本，OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1,433 天） + +宽池（297 只，新浪）： + +| 变体 | Sharpe | 年化 | 年化波动 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (N=58) | 基准 Sharpe | Sharpe 差 | IR vs EW | CAGR 差 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| A turnover20_plain | 0.805 | 15.47% | 15.49% | −20.23% | 0.6411 | 0.493 | **+0.312** | −0.044 | +1.04pp | +| B turnover60_plain | 0.788 | 15.29% | 15.59% | −20.47% | 0.6538 | 0.493 | +0.295 | −0.055 | +0.86pp | +| C lowvol3_plain | 0.733 | 14.41% | 15.56% | −19.49% | 0.6947 | 0.493 | **+0.240** | −0.113 | −0.03pp | +| D zoo10_plain | 0.563 | 11.93% | 15.87% | −21.87% | 0.8063 | 0.493 | +0.070 | −0.282 | −2.50pp | +| E turnover20_sector | 0.715 | 14.82% | 16.54% | −24.91% | 0.7057 | 0.493 | +0.221 | −0.084 | +0.39pp | +| 同池日频等权 | 0.493 | 14.44% | 23.19% | −32.28% | — | — | — | — | — | + +101 池同代码、同口径复跑（对照）： + +| 变体 | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (N=58) | 基准 Sharpe | Sharpe 差 | IR vs EW | CAGR 差 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| A turnover20_plain | 0.632 | 13.07% | −18.17% | 0.7665 | 0.294 | +0.338 | +0.302 | +4.08pp | +| B turnover60_plain | 0.628 | 13.05% | −17.48% | 0.7684 | 0.294 | +0.335 | +0.300 | +4.06pp | +| C lowvol3_plain | 0.493 | 10.68% | −17.43% | 0.8470 | 0.294 | +0.199 | +0.069 | +1.69pp | +| D zoo10_plain | 0.445 | 9.93% | −17.24% | 0.8704 | 0.294 | +0.151 | −0.002 | +0.94pp | +| E turnover20_sector | 0.504 | 10.76% | −19.27% | 0.8423 | 0.294 | +0.211 | +0.078 | +1.77pp | +| 同池日频等权 | 0.294 | 9.00% | −25.71% | — | — | — | — | — | + +（发布对照：R20 `turnover60_sector` 0.429 / `lowvol_sector` 0.577（两者为**行业中性**因子、N=48）；R19b `turnover20_plain` 0.663、`turnover60_plain` 0.682（均为 60% 行业上限、单行业映射、无 rank 归一，口径不同，仅参考）。本轮 B 的 0.628 与 R19b `turnover60_plain` 的 0.682 量级一致；而 R20 的**行业中性** `turnover60_sector` 只有 0.429——发布数字与本轮同口径结果的差异主要来自**因子中性化**，不是池子。本轮 B/C 为 **plain** 因子，故不可与 R20 的中性化版本逐位对齐；同表 A–E 的 101 列才是同口径对照。） + +- **方向复现**：宽池 A/B/C/E 的 Sharpe 差 +0.22~+0.31（A +0.312、C +0.240）均超过 0.1；D 仅 +0.070（101 池 +0.151），两池都弱于单因子 tilt。 +- **但宽池的 Sharpe 优势主要来自降波动**：A/B/C/E 策略年化波动 15.5–16.5% vs 同池等权 **23.19%**；IR（日均超额 mean/std）为 **−0.04~−0.11**，CAGR 仅高 −0.03~+1.04pp。101 池则同时有 IR +0.30 与 CAGR +4.1pp——宽池的等权基准本身极强（2025 年 +37.1%，受小盘/幸存者推动），策略在算术日均收益上并未跑赢。 +- 全样本 rank IC（处理前 plain 因子 vs 前向收益）：宽池 turnover20 **−0.0435**（ICIR −0.210）、vol20 **−0.0504**（−0.261）、amplitude **−0.0497**（−0.247），且 **8/8 年全为负**；101 池对应 −0.0468/−0.0533/−0.0522。**因子方向与量级在宽池复现**。 +- **fallback（真实计数）**：12 次运行（2 池 × 5 组 + PIT 2）引擎 optimizer fallback **0**、selector fallback **0**、协方差失败 0；R18 现金约束 `n_funding_scaled_days` 全部 >0，12 run 范围 **2,079–11,141**（wide 3,107–3,631；101 6,826–11,141；PIT 2,079–3,703）。确定性：wide A 同脚本独立重跑两次（最终版、均限 BLAS 单线程），除 runtime 外**全部字段逐位一致（0 差异）**，每折选择与 fallback 完全相同。成本修正前的一次对照（未限线程 vs 限 1 线程）最大绝对差为 2.0e-7 CNY（相对 ~6e-14），说明差异只来自 BLAS 线程调度；限线程后逐位一致。 + +### PIT 大小盘拆分（2018–2019 平均成交额，2020+ OOS） + +2018-01-01..2019-12-31 平均 `amount` 中位数（72,397,296 CNY）分半：**116 小 / 116 大**。232 只有效；3 只 2019 年 IPO 观测不足 120 天（002970 11 天、300796 33 天、603093 82 天）不参与分类，另有 62 只 2020 后上市无 PIT 成交额——均**不参与**拆分（避免用未来上市/极短 IPO 首日成交额分类）。 + +| half | n | Sharpe | 基准 Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p | IR vs EW | CAGR 差 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 大（PIT 成交额高半） | 116 | 0.819 | 0.487 | 16.75% | −24.21% | 0.6222 | +0.070 | +2.51pp | +| 小（PIT 成交额低半） | 116 | 0.635 | 0.572 | 14.45% | −28.67% | 0.7625 | −0.252 | −1.86pp | + +低换手 tilt 的 Sharpe 优势集中在 **PIT 大 half**（+0.332）；小 half 的同 half 等权本身很强（Sharpe 0.572），策略 +0.063 未过 0.1 门线、IR 为负。 + +### 判定（预注册规则，先写死再看结果） + +规则：宽池低换手（A）/低波（C）若 **Sharpe 差 >0.1 且 DSR p<0.2**，方向性结论可保留；否则说明原结论只适用于原池。 + +- A：Sharpe 差 **+0.312**（通过），DSR p **0.641**（不通过）→ **不通过**。C：+0.240（通过），DSR p **0.695**（不通过）→ **不通过**。 +- **按字面预注册规则，宽池未通过验证门槛。** 但必须如实指出：同一 DSR 门槛在原 101 池**同样不通过**（本轮同口径 A 0.767 / C 0.847；R20 发布 lowvol_sector 0.7805、turnover60_sector 0.8637，N=48）。因此不能把“未通过”解释为“原结论只适用于原池”——两池证据都只是**方向性风格 tilt**，都未达到多重检验显著。 +- 可以保留的表述：低换手/低波的**方向**（IC 符号/量级、Sharpe 差）在跨板块宽池复现，且因子 IC 量级与 101 池几乎相同；但宽池证据强度弱于 101 池（IR 为负、PIT 小 half 失灵、zoo 失效），且宽池 Sharpe 优势主要是降波动而非增收益。**不可表述为“已验证的 alpha”，也不支持据此投入真金白银。** +- 本轮新增 5 个变体已计入 DSR 全家族 N=53+5=58。说明：DSR 家族计数跨轮为 48/49/53（R19b/R20、R23、R22/R25），本轮按任务书统一取 53+5；A/C 的 p=0.64/0.69，更大的 N 只会让 p 更大、判定更不可能翻转。 + +## 17. 宽池价值因子与 2026 实盘目标（R31，300 只宽池 · 百度 PE/PB） + +**问题**：§16 之后，宽池只剩低换手/低波的方向性证据。本轮把百度 PE(TTM)/PB 历史并入 300 只新浪宽池，回答两件事：(1) EP（以及 EP+低换手）在宽池上是否有超出已知风格的增量？(2) 能否用 R26 生产工具生成 as_of 2026-10-23 的 paper 目标？**预注册判定（看到结果前写死）**：只有 EP+换手（B/C）在宽池上 **DSR p（excess，N=60）< 0.2 且风格 alpha t > 1.5** 才可称“有增量证据”；否则如实报告无增量。目标只作 paper tracking，不接券商、不下单。 + +### 数据与合并口径 + +- **价格**：300 只新浪后复权日线，2,135 个交易日（2018-01-02..2026-10-23）；字段 open/high/low/close/volume/amount/turnover/pct_chg（turnover 百分数）。R30 抓取失败的 3 只（001312/301655/301686）本轮成功，但均为 **2026 年 IPO**（首个交易日 2026-04-21/2026-08-20/2026-09-22），2018-2025 研究窗口无任何数据，故研究面板仍为 **297 只 × 1,942 日**，与 R30 完全同宇宙；三只新样本只影响 2026 目标（本次均未入选）。 +- **估值**：百度 PE(TTM)/PB 各约 22.3 万条源观测（1991..2026-10-24；逐股更新间隔 median 8 天、p10 1 天、p90 18 天）。逐股按“先 `dropna()` 再 `reindex(price_dates, method="ffill")`”合并：只取 **≤ 价格日期**的最近一次观测，**不 bfill**；价格日期前无观测保持 NaN。先 dropna 是必要的：源面板 (date × asset) 跨股票稀疏，任意一个源日期通常只有少数股票有观测；若直接对含 NaN 的源面板 `reindex(method="ffill")`，取到的是最近一个**行标签**的整行，该股票若恰在此行没有观测就返回 NaN（即使更早有观测），naive 全面板 ffill 会把 listed 覆盖率打到 **21.34%**。先 dropna 逐股 ffill 还能保留落在周末/节假日的源观测（逐列 `reindex(...).ffill()` 只有 95.26%）。PE 与 PB 的日期集合仅 6/300 只股票不同，不是覆盖率问题的主因。 +- **覆盖率**：有收盘价的 listed 行上 PE/PB 覆盖 **99.995%**（逐股最低 99.85%，无一只低于 50%）；含上市前单元的全网格覆盖 88.02%。PE<=0 占覆盖行 **20.42%**、PB<=0 占 **0.50%**；EP=1/PE 仅在 PE>0 时定义（PB/BP 同理），非正 PE 不作任何符号翻转。 +- **因果性**：合成变异测试通过（改后一个估值点，之前所有合并值不变、之后从该点起变化）；257 个随机 (股票, 日期) 点复核 PE/PB 合并值，max abs diff = 0。 +- **局限**：百度历史估值序列自身的 PIT 构造无法独立验证（假设 t 日估值只使用 t 日及以前可得的信息）；静态行业映射（最新分类，无 effective_date）；无 ST 标记/过滤；300 只全部为当前上市股票（退市在抽样前剔除，幸存者偏差未校正）；30xxxx 2020-08 后为 20% 涨跌幅而门禁仍用 ±9.8%（买卖两侧混合方向，同 R30）。 + +### 四组结果（2018-2025，OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1,433 天，净成本） + +口径与 R30 完全一致：expanding WF 504/126/126、purge/embargo 5、月度调仓、5% 单票、30% 行业上限、rank 归一 MVO、同日 `pct_chg` 门禁、R18 现金约束引擎、impact 成本、2M 资金、cost ADV 用日 VWAP=amount/volume。因子均为 winsorize 1/99 → zscore →（可选）行业/成交额中性；成交额中性用 20 日均 `amount` 作为规模代理。 + +| 变体 | 因子（中性化） | Sharpe | 年化 | 年化波动 | 最大回撤 | DSR p (N=60) | 基准 Sharpe | Sharpe 差 | IR vs EW | 风格 alpha（年化） | t(alpha) | R² | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| A | EP（行业中性，top1） | 0.497 | 11.31% | 16.72% | −26.65% | 0.8458 | 0.493 | +0.004 | −0.337 | −3.78% | −1.40 | 0.86 | +| B | EP+turnover20（行业中性，top2） | 0.674 | 14.08% | 16.45% | −24.88% | 0.7401 | 0.493 | +0.180 | −0.138 | −1.72% | −0.62 | 0.85 | +| C | EP+turnover20（行业+成交额中性，top2） | 0.606 | 12.87% | 16.28% | −25.06% | 0.7838 | 0.493 | +0.113 | −0.218 | −0.84% | −0.30 | 0.85 | +| D | turnover20（plain，top1；对照） | 0.805 | 15.47% | 15.49% | −20.23% | 0.6459 | 0.493 | **+0.312** | −0.044 | −1.39% | −0.47 | 0.83 | +| — | 同池日频等权 | 0.493 | 14.44% | 23.19% | −32.28% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | + +- **D 与 R30 wide-A 逐位复现**：Sharpe 0.80496、年化 15.47%、MDD −20.23%、IR −0.044、funding 3,107 天全部一致；headline 指标与 OOS 日收益最大差 ≤2.1e-14，`weights_history` ≤1.7e-13；`cost_events` 的 CNY 金额绝对差 2.08e-7（相对 1.4e-12）。证明 R31 合并面板/因子处理没有引入口径漂移。DSR 由 R30 的 N=58 改按本轮任务书 N=60，p 0.641→0.646 为纯计数差异。 +- **判定：宽池 EP 无增量证据。** B/C 的 DSR p = 0.740/0.784、风格 alpha t = −0.62/−0.30，双重门槛均远未达到；加入 EP 反而把宽池换手对照的 Sharpe 从 0.805 拉低到 0.674（B）/0.606（C），年化从 15.47% 降到 14.08%/12.87%。EP 单因子 A 与同池等权打平（Sharpe 差 +0.004），风格 alpha 为 −3.78%/年（t −1.40），即高 EP 暴露没有带来正残余收益。 +- **为什么 EP 在宽池无效**：EP 的全样本 rank IC 虽为正（plain +0.0197、ICIR 0.128；行业中性 +0.0145、0.152）且 8/8 年为正，但量级只有 turnover20（−0.0435、ICIR −0.210）的约一半；在 5% 单票/30% 行业约束下，EP 多头组合的收益被风格（R² 0.85–0.86）解释，残余 alpha 为负。B/C 的 IR vs EW 分别 −0.138/−0.218，CAGR 差 −0.35pp/−1.56pp——Sharpe 优势仍主要来自降波动（16.3–16.5% vs 等权 23.2%），不是增收益，与 §16 的宽池结论一致。 +- **fallback（真实计数）**：4 次 walk-forward 引擎 optimizer fallback **0**、selector fallback **0**、协方差失败 0；R18 现金约束 `n_funding_scaled_days` 3,107–3,443；优化器目标最大行业权重 17.6%–20.1%（30% cap 未顶到），0 违规。OOS 年化单边换手 0.91–1.05。 +- DSR 家族敏感性：按 R30 家族 58 + 本轮 4 = N=62 复算，四组 p 为 0.849/0.744/0.787/0.650，判定不变。本轮按任务书统一报告 N=60。 +- **复现前提与确定性**：官方 CLI 在 import numpy 前把 OMP/MKL/OPENBLAS/NUMEXPR 线程固定为 1。外部驱动若先 import numpy 再以默认线程直接调用，B 会得到 Sharpe 0.667、DSR p 0.745、alpha t −0.66（官方 0.674/0.740/−0.62），结论不变。确定性：A–D 四个变体各做两次独立 pinned 运行（第一次 JSON 备份后 `--research --force` 重跑），全部字段（含 per-fold weights/cost/daily returns，A–C ≈25.9 万、D ≈26.2 万数值单元）0 差异；`runtime_s` 与运行名 excluded。 + +### 与 101 池 EP 结果并列 + +| 池 / 变体 | Sharpe | 年化 | 最大回撤 | DSR p | 风格 alpha t | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 101 池 R20 `ep_turn_sector`（行业中性，N=48） | 0.490 | 10.77% | −19.09% | 0.8310 | 0.52 | +| 101 池 R20 `ep_turn_ss`（行业+成交额中性，N=48） | 0.355 | 8.60% | −22.56% | 0.8949 | −0.05 | +| 宽池 R31 B `ep_turn_sector`（N=60） | 0.674 | 14.08% | −24.88% | 0.7401 | −0.62 | +| 宽池 R31 C `ep_turn_ss`（N=60） | 0.606 | 12.87% | −25.06% | 0.7838 | −0.30 | + +宽池的 EP+换手 Sharpe 比 101 池高 0.18–0.25，但风格 alpha t 更差（101 池 0.52/−0.05 vs 宽池 −0.62/−0.30），说明宽池的 Sharpe 优势来自更高波动的等权基准与降波动效应，而不是 EP 的残余 alpha。两池的 EP 家族都没有达到显著。 + +### 实盘目标（as_of 2026-10-23，paper only） + +用 `tools/daily_signal.py`（R26 版本，未改一行）在合并面板上生成：`--as-of 2026-10-23 --factors ep,turnover20d --industry-map .cache/baostock/industry_map.parquet`，MVO、5% 单票、30% 行业 cap、first build（无 prev_weights）。 + +- **32 只持仓**；gross **99.9999%**（cash 0.0001%）；最大单票 **5.00%**（11 只顶格）；最大行业 **C35 13.49%**（30% cap 未约束，14 个行业有持仓）；估算单边换手 **50.00%**（first build 对零仓，cap 不适用）；optimizer fallback **0**。 +- **估值 vintage**：as_of 2026-10-23 使用的是“≤10-23 的最近一次观测”（300/300 只有 prior 观测；有效年龄 median **7 天**、p90 17 天、max **21 天**、12 只当天有观测）。估值源在 2026-10-24（周六）有 300/300 条观测，严格 PIT 下**排除**；反事实实验（用 10-24 快照替换 10-23 值）会把 32 只中 22 只权重移动（max 0.93pp、31/32 名称重叠），因此该 vintage 必须显式披露，而不是当作 10-23 当日估值。 +- IC 权重（252 obs，窗口 2025-10-09..2026-10-22，全部严格早于 as_of）：EP **+0.233**（IC +0.0118），turnover20d **−0.767**（IC −0.0389，负号即低换手方向）。 +- 信号日覆盖：300 只面板中 299 只有收盘（002717 停牌）；PE 299 只全有值（199 正 / 100 非正 → EP 无值）；turnover20 有效 298；EP 或 turnover 至少一项有效的选择池 299（= daily_signal 的 candidates）。**非正/缺失 PE 不被静默删除**：missing 因子在 composite 中按 0（z-score 后的中性值）处理，上述计数显式写入目标 JSON 的 `r31.cap_checks.coverage_on_signal_date`。 +- **PIT 验证**：向缓存注入 2026-10-26..30 五个交易日的极端未来行（价格 ±3%、PE 2/500 分半、turnover 1–13），`--as-of 2026-10-23` 的权重与基线**逐位相同**（max diff 0）；同缓存 `--as-of 2026-10-30` 权重最大变化 5pp——证明测试有功效且 as_of 截断真实生效。 +- 目标文件：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.{json,csv}`；JSON 顶层 `disclaimer` 字段与 CSV 首行均带 `paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha` 免责声明。 +- **forward paper 等待执行日**：执行日 = as_of 后首个交易日（预计 **2026-10-26**）；当前缓存止于 2026-10-23，台账无法启动。`docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/README.md` 写明数据更新后重建合并面板并运行 `tools/paper_track.py --target ... --cache .scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet --out-dir docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026 --capital 2000000 --cost-mode impact`；README 同时注明冻结目标复核的权重容差 ≤1e-8（或把 BLAS 线程固定为 1 做位级比较）；台账等待。 + +**限制（目标链路）**：宽缓存 `close` 为后复权，`paper_track.py` 用 `volume×close` 估计 CNY 成交额会高估 ADV（R30 实测逐股中位 2.78×），从而**低估** impact 成本；NAV 收益本身由 `pct_chg` 构建，不受影响。目标组合包含 2026 年新上市股票风险（本次未选中）；002717 停牌不入选；行业映射静态、无 ST、权重层面不取整手。 + +## 18. 2026 真 holdout（零调参，生产链路） + +> ⚠️ 2026-10-25 复核发现：本节目标由**没有 ST 过滤**的 `daily_signal.py` 生成，两个策略每月持有 3–6 只 ST、权重 7%–13%。本节的 +6.73pp 超额不可直接引用，修正结果见 **§26**（换手策略 −8.80% vs 可投资等权 −11.13%，超额约 +2.3pp）。 + +2026 年数据从未参与任何因子/参数/组合选择（全部研究止于 2025-12-31）。用**生产工具链**（`tools/daily_signal.py` 月末生成目标 + `tools/paper_track.py` 滚动台账，R18/R32 口径）对两个**冻结**策略做一次性评估： + +- 目标生成：2026-01-30 ~ 2026-09-30 的 9 个月末，as_of 当日截断；次日收盘调仓；成本 impact（原始价用 `amount/volume`，R32 auto）。 +- 台账窗口：2026-02-02 ~ 2026-10-23（173 个交易日，9 次调仓）；300 只宽池。 +- 无任何参数调整；因子集合与 R30 完全一致。 + +| 策略 | 总收益 | 年化 | 年化波动 | Sharpe | 最大回撤 | 成本 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 换手 20d（生产工具：因子行业中性，对应 R30 E） | **−4.89%** | −7.05% | 17.53% | **−0.573** | **−17.54%** | 5,108.60 CNY | +| EP+换手（生产工具：因子行业中性，对应 R20 ep_turn_sector） | −8.49% | −12.13% | 17.22% | −0.878 | −19.33% | 4,334.61 CNY | +| 同池日频等权基准 | −11.63% | −16.48% | — | −0.825 | −22.24% | — | + +> 口径说明：`tools/daily_signal.py` 在提供 `--industry-map` 时会对因子做**行业中性化**（`process_factor neutralize_enabled=True`），因此这两个 forward 策略对应研究里的“sector”变体（R30 E 0.715 / R20 ep_turn_sector 0.490），不是 R30 的 plain turnover20（0.805）。生产与研究的差异已在此显式标注。 + +解读（诚实）： + +- 2026 年 2–10 月是下跌市（基准 −11.6%）；两个策略都亏钱，但**换手单因子跑赢基准 +6.73pp**，波动更低、回撤更浅（−17.5% vs −22.2%）。这与“低换手/低波是防御性风格 tilt”的判断一致。 +- EP+换手在真样本外反而更差（−8.49%），与 R30/R31 宽池结论一致：EP 在宽池无增量，加入它降低换手权重、拖累结果。 +- 这是一条 9 个月的真实路径，不是统计显著的 alpha；但它排除了“策略只在 2018–2025 回测里有效”的最坏情况——防御性在未参与选择的数据上延续了。 + +产物：`.scratch/holdout_2026/`（targets/ledger/holdout_summary.json）；执行脚本 `.scratch/orchestrate/r33_holdout_2026.py`。 + +**附加（预注册负结果）**：市场趋势过滤 overlay（EW 指数低于 200 日均线时暴露减半）在收益层面检验——2020–2025 turnover20 Sharpe 0.683 → 0.527、ep_turn_sector 0.486 → 0.365；2026 holdout −0.573 → −1.144。最大回撤仅小幅改善（−17.6% → −15.4%）。结论：**市场择时无效，不采纳**。 + +## 19. 下一步（按优先级） + +1. **Forward paper 跟踪（不动钱）**：用真实行情按本组合/流程跑 3–6 个月，记录成交、滑点与风格暴露漂移；这是把“回测候选”变成“可观察假设”的最低成本方式。 +2. **正交 alpha 研究**：R23 已按预注册完成第一轮（5 个候选，§12），**零结果**——风格残差 alpha 全部不显著。下一轮若继续，应把“宽池 + 真实市值 + 新数据源”作为前置条件，而不是在同一个 101 只池里继续挖因子；任何新候选仍须预注册并计入 DSR 的 N。 +3. **宽池与真实市值**：拉取全市场（含创业板/科创板）与连续总市值字段，做严格 size 中性化与 PIT 行业；现有 000xxx 池的外部有效性太弱。 +4. **容量估计器修正**：修掉 capital 重复扣费、统一 WF 口径、把“封顶资产-日”改成交易日，并用 paper TCA 校准冲击系数，再谈容量阈值。 +5. **纪律**：任何新变体都登记进试验台账并计入 DSR 的 N；在真正 holdout（未参与本轮搜索的数据段）上做一次性评估。 +6. **把 R20 口径接进生产工具**：`tools/real_data_research.py` 目前仍传单一 "A" 行业且未启用 rank 归一化（§9 #11）；接入真实行业映射 + `rank_normalize_signal` 并补端到端测试。 + +## 20. 口径审计与基准矩阵（2026-10-25，回应外部评审） + +外部评审指出：平台报告列的 Sharpe 是自定义口径 `(CAGR−3%)/年化波动`，不是标准年化 Sharpe `√252·mean(日超额)/std(日超额)`；两者不能与 DSR 的理论混用。核实结果： + +- **DSR 实现内部用的是标准口径**（`research/validation.py` 里 `sr = mean/std; observed_sr = sr·√252`），因此 DSR p 值本身无需重算；需要修正的是**报告表格列的标签与数值**。 +- 对已保存的 OOS 序列重算两种口径（见 `.scratch/orchestrate/metrics_audit_2026-10-25.{json,md}`）： + +| 序列 | 平台自定义 Sharpe | 标准年化 Sharpe | DSR p（N=10/25/48/60） | +|---|---:|---:|---| +| 101 turnover20_plain | 0.683 | 0.708 | 0.462/0.628/0.722/0.750 | +| 101 turnover60_plain | 0.703 | 0.726 | 0.445/0.612/0.708/0.737 | +| 101 turnover60_sector | 0.377 | 0.432 | 0.710/0.835/0.892/0.907 | +| 101 ep_turn_sector | 0.486 | 0.533 | 0.624/0.770/0.842/0.862 | +| 101 lowvol_sector | 0.568 | 0.607 | 0.557/0.714/0.796/0.820 | +| 2026 holdout turnover | −0.573 | −0.501 | 0.977/0.992/0.996/0.997 | + +结论：标准 Sharpe 比自定义口径高约 0.03–0.05（正收益序列），排序与结论不变；DSR 在 N=48 时仍在 0.71–0.89。**今后报告以标准年化 Sharpe 为主，平台口径标注为自定义指标。** + +### 基准矩阵（宽池 300 只，同窗口） + +| 基准 | 2020-02-11..2025-12-31 CAGR / 波动 / 标准 Sharpe / MDD | 2026-02-02..10-23 CAGR / 波动 / Sharpe / MDD | +|---|---|---| +| 同池日频等权 | 15.3% / 23.6% / 0.595 / −32.3% | −16.6% / 23.7% / −0.773 / −22.2% | +| 同池市值加权（换手率反推股本） | 8.6% / 20.5% / 0.361 / −37.3% | −20.3% / 21.4% / −1.096 / −22.0% | +| constant-share buy&hold | 13.2% / 20.4% / 0.562 / −28.7% | −18.2% / 18.5% / −1.156 / −17.9% | +| 宽池换手策略（plain） | 15.5% / 15.5% / — / −20.2% | −7.05% / 17.5% / −0.501 / −17.5% | + +解读：策略相对**市值加权**和**buy&hold**有明显优势（收益更高、波动更低）；相对**日频等权**是“收益接近、波动显著更低”。基准选择会改变优势大小，但方向和“防御性 tilt”的定性不变。2026 年策略跑赢全部三种基准。 + +### 估值可得时间审计（部分） + +用 `隐含 EPS = 原始价 / PE` 的跳变月份检验估值更新是否集中在财报季：跳变在 4 月（1,557 次）、2 月（1,193）、5 月（1,151）、8 月（1,151）、10 月（1,078）最多，与 A 股年报/一季报/半年报/三季报披露窗口一致；但该方法受价格波动与估值更新频率干扰，**不能证明供应商未做历史回填**。在接入真正 PIT 财务面板前，宽池 EP 结论按“未通过完整 PIT 审查”对待。 + +### 涨跌停门禁方向性 + +引擎按方向门禁：**买入**在 `limit_up` 日被阻断、**卖出**在 `limit_down` 日被阻断（不是统一禁止涨跌停日交易）；研究脚本已改用执行日当天 `pct_chg`。ST 的 5% 限制未建模（用 9.8% 近似），30xxxx 的 20% 限制也未区分——这是已知的保守/偏松混合误差，列入限制清单。 + +## 21. 成本压力测试（2026-10-25，回应外部评审） + +外部评审要求：“在真实成交模拟与保守成本压力测试下，策略的净收益优势不能消失。” 用 **冻结策略的同一套生产定义**（turnover20 行业中性、IC 加权、月度调仓、5% 单票 / 30% 行业 / 30% 换手、MVO 成本惩罚、R18 现金约束引擎、同日涨跌停门禁）在 101 池上跑同一 Walk-Forward（504/126、purge/embargo 5），**只改成本模型**： + +| 成本设定 | 标准年化 Sharpe | CAGR | MDD | DSR p（N=48） | 全期累计超额 vs 日频等权 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| impact 复合，slippage 10bps（基线） | 0.474 | 9.27% | −21.1% | 0.873 | **+2.4%** | +| 固定滑点 30bps | 0.441 | 8.72% | −21.3% | 0.889 | **−2.4%** | +| 固定滑点 50bps | 0.415 | 8.31% | −21.5% | 0.899 | **−6.0%** | + +（OOS 2020-02-11..2025-12-31，1433 个交易日；产物 `.scratch/orchestrate/cost_stress_2026-10-25.json`，三组并行运行。） + +解读： + +1. **绝对收益对成本不算敏感**：从 10bps 到 50bps 固定滑点，Sharpe 只掉约 0.06、CAGR 掉约 1pp——因为策略月频、换手受限，成本本身不是主要风险。 +2. **但相对基准的“净优势”非常脆弱**：基线相对同池日频等权的全期累计超额仅 +2.4%（约 0.4pp/年）；30bps 固定滑点即翻负（−2.4%），50bps 为 −6.0%。按外部评审的验收标准，**“净收益优势不能消失”这一条不成立**。 +3. DSR 在所有成本设定下都不显著（p 0.87–0.90），成本不改变统计结论，只是进一步压缩本已很小的相对优势。 +4. 固定滑点是惩罚性设定（2M 资金量下 impact 模型估计成本通常低于 10bps，30/50bps 属于极端假设）；因此这不代表实盘一定亏，但意味着**策略的边际优势无法承受成本假设的合理不确定性**。 + +与 §20 基准矩阵一致：这套策略相对市值加权/buy&hold 的优势主要来自“低波防御”，而相对同池等权几乎没有净优势；任何成本上修都会抹掉它。该结果支持“不投真金白银、先 paper 跟踪”的结论，并把“成本校准”列为 forward paper 期间的第一优先观测项。 + +## 22. PIT 估值复核（R31b，2026-10-25，回应缺陷 #3） + +宽池原来的 EP 用百度半自动 PE/PB（半月频、可能回填）。本轮用 **Baostock 日频 `peTTM`/`pbMRQ`**（按其已公告财报计算）替换，在**未改动**的 R31 驱动上复跑价值变体 A（EP 行业中性 top-1）与 B（EP+换手 top-2），控制组 D（换手 top-1）不涉及估值、沿用原结果。 + +| 口径 | 覆盖率 | 与百度口径 Spearman 相关 | EP 平均 Rank IC | A Sharpe（alpha t） | B Sharpe（alpha t） | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 百度半自动 PE/PB（R31 原版） | 99.3% | — | 0.0196 | 0.497（−1.40） | 0.674（−0.62） | +| Baostock 日频 PIT | 99.97% | PE 0.980 / PB 0.996 | 0.0204 | 0.479（−1.66） | 0.644（−0.80） | + +（同窗口基准 Sharpe 0.493；D 控制组 0.805 不变。产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/{r31b_pit_value.py,merged_wide_pit.parquet,r31b_merge_quality.json,r31b_ic_compare.json,r31b_summary.json,r31b_results/}`、`.scratch/bs_valuation/`。） + +结论： + +1. 两种估值来源高度一致（PE 秩相关 0.98、PB 0.996），换成 PIT 后 **EP 的 IC 与策略表现几乎不变，甚至略差**——“EP 无增量、换手单因子更强”的结论不是百度回填造成的。 +2. 宽池估值 PIT 缺陷（#3）从“部分缓解”升级为“**已复核、结论稳健**”；残余限制是仍依赖 Baostock 自身的 PIT 实现（未逐条独立核对公告日），且 BP 只做了同源替换。若未来要用财务因子做正式结论，仍建议接 Tushare/Baostock 公告日财务自建面板。 +3. 这也意味着：在现有宽池上继续挖股票价值因子，边际收益很低——与外部评审“不要再无限追 alpha”的判断一致。 + +## 23. PIT ST 复核（2026-10-25，缺陷 #2：结论有实质影响） + +101 池此前的 `is_st` 是全样本静态且全 False——ST 过滤在真实数据上实际失效。本轮用 **Baostock 日频 `isST`** 重建 PIT ST 掩码（2018–2025）：**101 只中有 22 只出现过 ST，共 7,859 个“股票×交易日”**（如 000005 于 2021-05~2024-04、000410 于 2019-08~2023-05，与公开历史一致）。用冻结策略的同一生产定义重跑两种处理： + +| 处理 | 标准 Sharpe | CAGR | MDD | DSR p（N=48） | 全期累计超额 | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 原版（ST 掩码全 False，等同不设 ST 过滤） | 0.474 | 9.27% | −21.1% | 0.873 | vs 全样本等权 **+2.4%** | +| （i）仅禁止买入 ST（tradable_mask） | 0.382 | 7.80% | −20.6% | 0.912 | vs 全样本等权 **−10.4%** | +| （ii）完整 ST 政策：ST 退出因子池 + 基准也剔除 ST | 0.375 | 7.71% | −20.3% | 0.915 | vs 可投资等权 **−11.2%** | + +参照基准（同窗口）：全样本日频等权 CAGR 9.30%、Sharpe 0.390；**剔除 ST 后的可投资等权 CAGR 10.90%、Sharpe 0.453**。 + +解读： + +1. **原版 0.49 的历史证据被 ST 暴露显著高估**。生产链路本来就过滤 ST（pipeline 的 `excluded_mask`/`tradable_mask`），因此原版回测并不代表可部署策略的真实表现；两种 ST 处理互相印证（0.382 / 0.375）。 +2. 剔除 ST 同时**提高了基准**（ST 股票整体是输家，剔除后等权从 9.3% 升到 10.9%），一升一降，策略相对可投资等权的差距扩大到约 −3pp/年。 +3. 结论方向与成本压力测试（§21）、ETF 试点（`ETF_ROTATION_RESULTS_2026-10-25.md`）一致：现有证据不支持“存在稳定净优势”。**部署结论维持“不投真金白银”**，且今后任何股票策略回测必须带 PIT ST 掩码。 +4. 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/{fetch_st_mask.py,cost_stress_101.py（--st-mask）,cost_stress_101_impact_10bps_st{,2}.json}`、`.scratch/st_mask/`。剩余限制：ST 判定依赖 Baostock；停牌/退市处理未变。 +5. **2026-10-26 成本模型修正后复算**：无效 ADV 固定滑点回退、60 日中位 ADV（shift 1）、买入预留费用后，同一完整 ST 政策的标准 Sharpe 为 **0.387**、CAGR **7.89%**、MDD −20.2%，相对可投资等权累计超额 **−9.6%**（`.scratch/orchestrate/cost_stress_101_impact_10bps_st_causal_fee.json`）。较旧口径略好，但仍明显跑输基准，部署结论不变。 + +## 24. 分板块涨跌停阈值复核（R31c，2026-10-25，缺陷 #5） + +宽池 297 只中 **92 只是创业板（30xxxx，20% 涨跌停）**，但此前所有宽池回测都用统一的 9.8% 门禁。本轮给 `run_headline_variant` 增加可选的分资产阈值面板（30/68 → 19.8%，其余 9.8%），在 R31 原始面板上复跑： + +| 变体 | 统一 9.8%（原版） | 分板块阈值 | 差异 | +|---|---:|---:|---| +| B（EP+换手 top-2） | Sharpe 0.674（alpha t −0.62） | 0.656（alpha t −0.73） | −0.018 | +| D（换手 top-1 控制组） | 0.805（alpha t −0.47） | 0.805（alpha t −0.50） | 0.000 | + +结论：**门禁口径修正不改变任何宽池结论**（B 略降、D 不变）；先前“保守门禁”的担心在结果层面可以排除。残余：ST 的 5% 阈值仍未单独建模（ST 已从买入池剔除，影响主要落在卖出侧），宽池仍无 ST 历史。产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/{r31c_limits.py,real_variants2.py（新增 limit_up_panel/limit_down_panel）,r31c_results/,r31c_summary.json}`。 + +## 25. 实盘目标 ST 污染与修复（2026-10-25） + +核对实盘 forward 目标时发现：**v1 的 2026-10-23 目标（40 只持仓）中有 5 只是 ST**（002168、002650、300419、603189、603825，按 Baostock 当日 `isST`），与生产口径“ST 不进买入池”直接冲突——根因是 `tools/daily_signal.py` 从未实现 ST 过滤，而宽池面板本身没有 `is_st` 列。 + +修复（非业绩驱动）： + +1. `daily_signal.py` 新增 `--exclude-codes-file`：在构造组合前把名单内代码从候选池剔除，排除名单与实际剔除代码写入 `provenance/diagnostics`；`_normalize_code` 兼容 `sh600053/600053.SH` 形式；新增单测（22 项全部通过）。 +2. `forward_update.py`（已移入 `tools/`，纳入版本管理）在每次月末生成目标前抓取新浪全市场快照生成当日 ST 名单；**抓取失败则拒绝生成目标**（fail closed），不再产出无 ST 过滤的账本。 +3. 两个 2026-10-23 目标用当日 PIT ST 名单重建为 v2（换手 37 只、EP+换手 33 只、均不含 ST）；v1 原文件保留在各策略目录的 `superseded/target_2026-10-23_v1_no_st_filter.json`（子目录不被 `paper_track` 扫描，避免同一 as_of 重复），未删除。 +4. 冻结清单升级到 v2（`FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` §5），记录新旧 sha256；新 tag `forward-freeze-2026-10-25`。forward 台账尚未产生任何 NAV 记录，因此 v2 是**起点**，不存在对已跟踪记录的事后修改。 + +**2026-10-26 后续复核（v3，当前有效）**：v2 的 5 只名单并不完整，候选池当日实际有 13 只 ST；已用完整名单重建目标（换手 33 只、EP+换手 32 只），v2 目标文件移入 `superseded/`、旧 ST 名单另存。同时补齐空/不完整 ST 快照拒绝、首日零成交拒发、幽灵持仓清理、目标哈希前缀与交易所日历校验。当前唯一有效版本见 `FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md` §6；截至该日复核，正式台账仍未产生 NAV。 + +该问题与 §23 的历史回测发现同源：只要 ST 不进买入池，原策略的相对优势就大幅缩水；实盘目标必须在源头排除 ST，否则 paper 记录会重复历史回测的偏差。 + +## 26. 2026 holdout 的 ST 复核（2026-10-25） + +§18 的 2026 真 holdout 也是用同一套没有 ST 过滤的生产链路生成的：逐月核对显示，两个策略每个月都持有 3–6 只 ST、权重 7%–13%。用 PIT `isST` 重跑整段 2026（同一目标生成器、同一条 paper 台账，产物在 `.scratch/holdout_2026_st/`）： + +| 序列 | 总收益 | 年化 | Sharpe | MDD | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| 换手策略（ST 过滤后） | **−8.80%** | −12.55% | −0.817 | −18.6% | +| 换手策略（原始，含 ST） | −4.89% | — | −0.573 | −17.5% | +| 全样本等权 | −11.63% | −16.57% | −0.773 | −22.2% | +| 剔除 ST 的等权（可投资基准） | −11.13% | −15.88% | −0.728 | −22.4% | +| EP+换手（ST 过滤后） | −10.43% | −14.82% | −1.024 | −20.0% | + +结论：原始 +6.73pp 超额约一半来自 ST 暴露；修正后换手策略仍比两个基准少跌 2.3–2.8pp、回撤更浅（防御性 tilt 仍在），但 Sharpe 更差（负收益窗口低波动会压低 Sharpe），EP+换手弱于基准。**2026 的“跑赢”不能被表述为 alpha**；它只是一次下跌市中的相对抗跌，且强度明显小于原报告。此后所有 holdout 与实盘目标都必须带 PIT ST 过滤。 + +--- + +_生成于 2026-10-24（R19b 重写；R20 口径对齐；R22 新增 §11；R23 新增 §12「正交 alpha 筛选（预注册）」，零结果；R24 新增 §13「生产链路交叉验证」；R25 新增 §14「组合构建方式对比（预注册）」，保留 MVO；R26 新增 §15「生产工具组合层约束」，原下一步顺延为 §16）。作者：Claude（监督—执行环）。R31 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/{r31_wide_value.py,merged_wide.parquet,r31_merge_quality_2026-10-25.json,r31_wide_value_2026-10-25.json,r31_wide_value_2026-10-25.md,r31_checks_2026-10-25.json,r31_determinism_2026-10-25.json,r31_results/（A–D 四个 run JSON）,progress_R31.md,cc_report_R31_wide_value.md,review_R31.md}`、`docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.{json,csv}`、`docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/README.md`（R31 新增 §17「宽池价值因子与 2026 实盘目标」，下一步顺延为 §18）。R30 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/{r30_wide.py,r30_wide_2026-10-25.json,r30_wide_2026-10-25.md,r30_quality_2026-10-25.json,r30_ic_2026-10-25.json,r30_results/（12 个 run JSON）,r30_logs/,progress_R30.md,cc_report_R30_wide.md,review_R30.md}`（R30 新增 §16「宽池外部有效性验证」，下一步顺延为 §17）。R26 产物：`docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.{json,csv}`（重生成）、`docs/research/paper_track/roll_2020_2025/{nav.csv,summary.json}`（重生成）、`.scratch/orchestrate/{gen_roll_targets.py,roll_targets/（72 个目标，不入 git）,r26_compare_targets.py,r26_target_compare_2026-10-24.{json,md},r26_checks.py,r26_checks_2026-10-24.json,r26_compare_roll_wf.py,r26_compare_roll_wf_2026-10-24.json,cc_report_R26_prod_constraints.md,review_R26.md}`。R25 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r25_construct.py`、`r25_construct_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r25_results/`、`r25_capture/`、`r25_checks_2026-10-24.json`、`r25_determinism_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R25_construct.md`、`review_R25.md`。R24 产物：`docs/research/paper_track/roll_2020_2025/{nav.csv,summary.json}`、`.scratch/orchestrate/gen_roll_targets.py`、`roll_targets/`（72 个目标，不入 git）、`compare_roll_wf.py`、`r24_compare_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R24_roll_track.md`、`review_R24.md`。R23 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r23_orthogonal_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r23_orthogonal.py`、`r23_results/`、`r23_capture/`、`r23_checks_2026-10-24.json`、`r23_determinism_2026-10-24.json`、`cc_report_R23_orthogonal.md`、`review_R23.md`。R22 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r22_results/r22_voltarget_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、每组 `r22__vt_2026-10-24.{json,csv}`、`cc_report_R22_voltarget.md`、`review_R22.md`。R20 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/real_variants2_r20_2026-10-24.{json,md}`（四变体重跑）、`real_variants2_r20_results/`、`r20_capture/`、`r20_style_attr_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r20_benchmark_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r20_cap_probe_2026-10-24.json`（15% 行业上限剂量探针）、`r20_old_vs_new_2026-10-24.json`、`r20_golden_check.py`（默认路径逐位对比 c5c919c）。R19b 产物：`.scratch/orchestrate/r19b_headline_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r19b_benchmark_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r19b_style_attr_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r19b_size_split_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r19b_ic_scan_2026-10-24.{json,md}`、`r19b_old_vs_new_2026-10-24.json`、`capacity_curve_ep_turn_oos_2026-10-24.{json,md}`。旧数字来源：`real_variants{4,5,7,9}_2026-10-24.json`（旧口径，仅用于对照）；旧基准行 0.222/4.50%/−25.71% 取自 R19b 之前的报告文本（git 历史），旧容量 1M 0.565/5 亿 0.420 取自被本轮覆盖前的 `capacity_ep_turn_oos_out.txt`（数值已固化在 `r19b_old_vs_new_2026-10-24.json`）。注意 `capacity_curve_ep_turn_2026-10-24.json` 是另一套**全期**容量配置，勿与本报告的 OOS 容量表混用。_ diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_alpha_leakage.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_alpha_leakage.py index 74808a8..1d3caa8 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_alpha_leakage.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_alpha_leakage.py @@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ import sys import time -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest.py index d8c4a45..b44b1cf 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest.py @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ import sys import time -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest_lo.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest_lo.py index 474a824..a1340c2 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest_lo.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_backtest_lo.py @@ -33,7 +33,6 @@ import time from pathlib import Path -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_benchmark_attribution.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_benchmark_attribution.py index d2ae1d1..ac171e3 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_benchmark_attribution.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_benchmark_attribution.py @@ -9,7 +9,6 @@ import sys import time -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_complete.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_complete.py index 6a927b7..85dcec3 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_complete.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_complete.py @@ -11,7 +11,6 @@ import sys import time -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/m4/m4_return_attribution.py b/docs/research/m4/m4_return_attribution.py index 8286967..cd7fc4b 100644 --- a/docs/research/m4/m4_return_attribution.py +++ b/docs/research/m4/m4_return_attribution.py @@ -12,7 +12,6 @@ import sys import time -sys.path.insert(0, "D:/Desktop") import akshare as ak import numpy as np import pandas as pd diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/README.md b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1f13d74 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,64 @@ +# Forward paper track 2026 + +**Status: waiting for the first real execution session.** The active targets +were generated from data through **2026-10-23** and execute at the close of +**2026-10-26**, the first trading session after their `as_of`. This directory +must not be seeded from the superseded single-target files. + +**Paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha. No broker is +called and no money moves.** + +## Active versioned targets + +| Strategy | Targets directory | Ledger directory | +|---|---|---| +| EP + turnover | `docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/` | `docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/` | +| Turnover only | `docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/` | `docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover/` | + +The active `target_2026-10-23.json` files are the complete-ST-snapshot version: +13 names present in the 300-stock universe with Baostock `isST=1` on +2026-10-23 were excluded before construction. Earlier v1/v2 files are kept +only under each target directory's `superseded/` subdirectory; do not move +them back into the active glob. Exact hashes and the correction history are in +`docs/research/FREEZE_MANIFEST_2026-10-25.md`. + +## Daily update (after the exchange close) + +```bash +python tools/forward_update.py +``` + +This refreshes the Sina cache, rebuilds `.scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet`, +creates a new month-end target when due, and rebuilds both rolling ledgers. +There is no `--track` argument. Month-end target generation requires a complete +current ST snapshot covering the universe; snapshot, target-generation, or +ledger failures produce a nonzero exit. A first rebalance with zero executed +buys is rejected rather than published as an all-cash inception ledger. + +The desktop Scheduled task is `quant-forward-paper-daily` (weekdays 16:20). +Use **Run now** once in the Scheduled panel to pre-approve its tools. + +## Manual ledger rebuild + +```bash +python tools/paper_track.py --targets-dir docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover --cache .scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet --out-dir docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover --capital 2000000 --cost-mode impact --raw-price-mode auto +``` + +For the EP+turnover ledger: + +```bash +python tools/paper_track.py --targets-dir docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover --cache .scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet --out-dir docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026 --capital 2000000 --cost-mode impact --raw-price-mode auto +``` + +## Known limitations + +- The 300-name universe contains currently listed names only; historical + research retains survivorship bias. Forward tracking itself starts now. +- Valuation history is still the Baidu panel with causal forward fill; industry + mapping is static. These are research limitations, not reasons to rewrite a + frozen target after tracking begins. +- Execution is a next-session-close model at weight level, without board-lot + rounding or intraday queue simulation. Costs use the platform impact model; + `--raw-price-mode auto` selects `amount/volume` for the Sina HFQ panel. +- Corrections require new versioned targets/ledgers. Do not overwrite an + earlier target in place or rewrite inception history. diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/nav.csv b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/nav.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21e5115 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/nav.csv @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +date,nav,daily_return,benchmark_daily_return,cum_return,drawdown,n_positions,turnover,costs_paid,stale_assets +2026-10-26,1998386.681997,-0.0008066590,0.0000000000,-0.0008066590,-0.0008066590,31,0.4980096808,1613.318003,0 +2026-10-27,1956791.964548,-0.0208141486,-0.0290532096,-0.0216040177,-0.0216040177,31,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-10-28,1992621.732806,0.0183104637,0.0161423813,-0.0036891336,-0.0036891336,31,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-10-29,1974718.198694,-0.0089849136,-0.0243802003,-0.0126409007,-0.0126409007,31,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-10-30,1952848.174503,-0.0110750102,-0.0287355546,-0.0235759127,-0.0235759127,31,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-02,1979890.406413,0.0138475854,0.0240909813,-0.0100547968,-0.0100547968,33,0.0249821339,205.840228,0 +2026-11-03,2003300.777519,0.0118240742,-0.0087432714,0.0016503888,0.0000000000,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-04,2011672.890753,0.0041791594,0.0245820865,0.0058364454,0.0000000000,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-05,2038319.419337,0.0132459550,0.0226630328,0.0191597097,0.0000000000,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-06,2030738.744537,-0.0037190809,-0.0168863180,0.0153693723,-0.0037190809,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-09,2025997.739841,-0.0023346207,0.0012979155,0.0129988699,-0.0060450189,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-10,2026756.482029,0.0003745030,0.0162332270,0.0133782410,-0.0056727798,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-11,2028588.862529,0.0009040950,0.0109252096,0.0142944313,-0.0047738135,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 +2026-11-12,2007879.609244,-0.0102086991,-0.0145448379,0.0039398046,-0.0149337782,33,0.0000000000,0.000000,0 diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/summary.json b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/summary.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..44c5e03 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026/summary.json @@ -0,0 +1,311 @@ +{ + "annualization_periods_per_year": 252, + "benchmark": { + "annualized_return": -0.1496614737340921, + "annualized_volatility": 0.31681271908919384, + "definition": "equal-weight daily-rebalanced mean of the cached universe's pct_chg close-to-close returns over the same window; stale observations are excluded from that session", + "max_drawdown": -0.06509368718060005, + "sharpe_ratio": -0.5670904698858101, + "total_return": -0.00896626902602271 + }, + "benchmark_definition": "equal-weight daily-rebalanced mean of the cached universe's pct_chg close-to-close returns over the same window; stale observations are excluded from that session", + "book": { + "as_of": "2026-11-12", + "cash": 0.0, + "positions": [ + { + "code": "000543", + 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"2026-10-30", + "n_stale_days": 0, + "sharpe_ratio": 0.24459071380321604, + "total_return": 0.003939804622000054 + }, + "stale_policy": "a session is stale when the raw price amount/volume, pct_chg or volume is missing/invalid or the volume is zero; hold at the last valid raw price (return 0, flagged stale); when the price returns the resume-day pct_chg carries the gap return; after max_stale_sessions consecutive stale sessions, liquidate at the last valid raw price with no extra trade cost (no tradable price exists) and hold the proceeds as cash", + "target_files": [ + "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/target_2026-10-23.json", + "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/target_2026-10-30.json" + ], + "target_identities": [ + { + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "file": "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/target_2026-10-23.json", + "sha256": "e466c21411405372fa94a7ad85348faba6cd630fd6f609a4640f28651e7e08d4" + }, + { + "as_of": "2026-10-30", + "file": "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/target_2026-10-30.json", + "sha256": "ed2e60abf95c7cfbf23777eb5f0d5bd29a82239c61e650f7682f1d48de51b70b" + } + ], + "targets_sha256": "173af59c0712e4591708ea1497bc9b32125a764ba63e40c33922ab78438948cb", + "tracking": { + "difference": 0.012906073648022764, + "tracking_error": 0.20667177846705473 + }, + "tradable_gate": "execution buys require raw price amount/volume > 0, finite pct_chg, volume > 0 (R9 tradable_mask) and pct_chg <= 9.8% (R19a limit-up approximation); blocked weight stays in cash with a warning; at a rebalance, limit-down blocks the sell and limit-up blocks the buy", + "turnover": { + "definition": "realised one-sided turnover = 0.5 * (buys + sells) / pre-cost portfolio value, per executed rebalance", + "mean_per_rebalance": 0.26149590736242817, + "total": 0.5229918147248563 + }, + "volatility_basis": "rolling(20, min_periods=5).std() of pct_chg/100 through the execution close, masking suspension and resume-day gap returns as data/pipeline.py does; short histories fall back to 2% daily", + "warnings": [ + "2026-10-26: rebalance buy of 600094 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9939% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash" + ] +} diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover/nav.csv b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover/nav.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..473a69f --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_2026_turnover/nav.csv @@ -0,0 +1,15 @@ +date,nav,daily_return,benchmark_daily_return,cum_return,drawdown,n_positions,turnover,costs_paid,stale_assets 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"shares": 6183.145883062814, + "value": 41761.265737775706 + }, + { + "code": "600817", + "reference_price": 8.84316008174387, + "shares": 11281.8636203403, + "value": 99767.32601507171 + }, + { + "code": "600872", + "reference_price": 19.020330009841977, + "shares": 4950.400530608269, + "value": 94158.2517730661 + }, + { + "code": "601058", + "reference_price": 12.278025418237307, + "shares": 8585.883608782287, + "value": 105417.69718665599 + }, + { + "code": "601100", + "reference_price": 91.11983767598001, + "shares": 1134.3734504172808, + "value": 103363.92466596398 + }, + { + "code": "603060", + "reference_price": 4.927772275133878, + "shares": 8052.479474146878, + "value": 39680.785098785615 + }, + { + "code": "603380", + "reference_price": 25.985231071779744, + "shares": 330.3043471447826, + "value": 8583.034784570527 + }, + { + "code": "603580", + "reference_price": 59.54297166183059, + "shares": 129.45358286889586, + "value": 7708.051016285105 + }, + { + "code": "603726", + "reference_price": 21.775246152839753, + "shares": 4425.392584694225, + "value": 96364.01285466849 + } + ], + "positions_value": 2013172.4843771132 + }, + "cache_last_date": "2026-11-12", + "capital": 2000000.0, + "cost_mode": "impact", + "costs": { + "pct_of_capital": 0.0009422566105, + "total_cny": 1884.513221 + }, + "disclaimer": "paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha", + "first_ledger_date": "2026-10-26", + "last_ledger_date": "2026-11-12", + "max_stale_sessions": 20, + "mode": "rolling", + "n_pending_targets": 0, + "n_rebalances": 2, + "n_sessions": 14, + "n_targets": 2, + "pending_targets": [], + "raw_price_mode": "amount_over_volume", + "rebalances": [ + { + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "blocked_buys": [ + "600094" + ], + "blocked_sells": [], + "buy_cny": 1990940.0584, + "buy_scale": 1.0, + "costs_cny": 1671.6041861679194, + "execution_date": "2026-10-26", + "n_buys": 32, + "n_sells": 0, + "sell_cny": 0.0, + "turnover": 0.49773501459999997 + }, + { + "as_of": "2026-10-30", + "blocked_buys": [], + "blocked_sells": [], + "buy_cny": 49794.56951407556, + "buy_scale": 0.9957697130638522, + "costs_cny": 212.909034833261, + "execution_date": "2026-11-02", + "n_buys": 21, + "n_sells": 14, + "sell_cny": 42619.14113315413, + "turnover": 0.023426807210479548 + } + ], + "return_basis": "pct_chg/100 (Baostock ex-rights preclose); raw price = amount/volume (CNY VWAP proxy, volume > 0) is used only for volume x price cost conversion and the stale liquidation reference", + "risk_free_rate": 0.03, + "roll_ledger_version": 1, + "since_inception": { + "annualized_return": 0.125428278810076, + "annualized_volatility": 0.19698023777431822, + "final_nav": 2013172.484377, + "max_drawdown": -0.030400944986499923, + "max_drawdown_peak": null, + "max_drawdown_trough": "2026-10-30", + "n_stale_days": 0, + "sharpe_ratio": 0.4844561052840688, + "total_return": 0.006586242188499902 + }, + "stale_policy": "a session is stale when the raw price amount/volume, pct_chg or volume is missing/invalid or the volume is zero; hold at the last valid raw price (return 0, flagged stale); when the price returns the resume-day pct_chg carries the gap return; after max_stale_sessions consecutive stale sessions, liquidate at the last valid raw price with no extra trade cost (no tradable price exists) and hold the proceeds as cash", + "target_files": [ + "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/target_2026-10-23.json", + "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/target_2026-10-30.json" + ], + "target_identities": [ + { + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "file": "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/target_2026-10-23.json", + "sha256": "738fca0071edbc99bb62a1ad615e016172f9d75d667922c6a437ca6a6fbaf122" + }, + { + "as_of": "2026-10-30", + "file": "D:/Desktop/面试机试人才测评/lianghua/quant_platform/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/turnover/target_2026-10-30.json", + "sha256": "685aea655f8172ca61170f54ef534a79548b38a1815a5bd11d649eab7156fe75" + } + ], + "targets_sha256": "e643b1d80e93e43137243d9ca8209927b9d9375c17a39248ad17dff3f7c45002", + "tracking": { + "difference": 0.015552511214522613, + "tracking_error": 0.1787071568484696 + }, + "tradable_gate": "execution buys require raw price amount/volume > 0, finite pct_chg, volume > 0 (R9 tradable_mask) and pct_chg <= 9.8% (R19a limit-up approximation); blocked weight stays in cash with a warning; at a rebalance, limit-down blocks the sell and limit-up blocks the buy", + "turnover": { + "definition": "realised one-sided turnover = 0.5 * (buys + sells) / pre-cost portfolio value, per executed rebalance", + "mean_per_rebalance": 0.26058091090523977, + "total": 0.5211618218104795 + }, + "volatility_basis": "rolling(20, min_periods=5).std() of pct_chg/100 through the execution close, masking suspension and resume-day gap returns as data/pipeline.py does; short histories fall back to 2% daily", + "warnings": [ + "2026-10-26: rebalance buy of 600094 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9939% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash" + ] +} diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v1_no_st_filter.json b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v1_no_st_filter.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63c925e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v1_no_st_filter.json @@ -0,0 +1,281 @@ +{ + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "data_end": "2026-10-23", + "factors": [ + "ep", + "turnover20d" + ], + "weights": { + "000543": 0.0499999978, + "000631": 0.0149093778, + "000726": 0.0299257562, + "000755": 0.049999985, + "000883": 0.0499999991, + "000902": 0.0162778503, + "000948": 0.0131518552, + "001256": 0.034768357, + "002168": 0.0499999988, + "002262": 0.0499999988, + "002310": 0.0093457339, + "002508": 0.0499999996, + "002650": 0.0499999992, + "002698": 0.0277835515, + "002920": 0.0039137481, + "003018": 0.003806525, + "003035": 0.0447203646, + "300419": 0.0263710236, + "300559": 0.022409605, + "300636": 0.0238434343, + "600094": 0.001215316, + "600388": 0.0372797018, + "600436": 0.0499999996, + "600579": 0.0128761086, + "600817": 0.0499999962, + "600872": 0.0499999986, + "601058": 0.0461303729, + "601100": 0.0306419545, + "603189": 0.0001302383, + "603380": 0.0105967341, + "603605": 0.0499999758, + "603726": 0.0399015756 + }, + "signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "provenance": { + "tool": "tools/daily_signal.py", + "cache": "D:\\Desktop\\面试机试人才测评\\lianghua\\quant_platform\\.scratch\\orchestrate\\merged_wide.parquet", + "industry_map": "D:\\Desktop\\面试机试人才测评\\lianghua\\quant_platform\\.cache\\baostock\\industry_map.parquet", + "industry_neutralization": true, + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "max_sector": 0.3, + "sector_cap_enforced": true, + "prev_weights": null, + "capital_cny": 2000000.0, + "max_weight": 0.05, + "max_turnover": 0.3, + "risk_aversion": 1.0, + "transaction_cost_bps": 20.0, + "turnover_penalty": 0.5, + "covariance": "ledoit_wolf", + "covariance_lookback": 252, + "ic_lookback": 252, + "ic_min_obs": 20, + "winsorize": [ + 0.01, + 0.99 + ], + "standardize": "zscore", + "returns_convention": "pct_chg/100 shift(-1) computed within the panel sliced to date <= as_of; the signal date's forward label is NaN and excluded from IC and covariance" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "history_sessions": 2135, + "data_lag_days": 0, + "universe_assets": 300, + "candidates": 299, + "n_holdings": 32, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999996, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1349241636, + "n_sector_cap_binding": 0, + "sector_cap": { + "max_sector_exposure": 0.3, + "enforced": true, + "sector_map_assets": 300, + "n_sectors_universe": 57, + "unknown_assets_universe": 2, + "n_sectors_holdings": 14, + "binding_sectors": [], + "sector_weights": { + "C14": 0.09999999779999999, + "C17": 0.0299257562, + "C26": 0.06627782609999999, + "C27": 0.1238434327, + "C29": 0.0898384735, + "C34": 0.058425506, + "C35": 0.1349241636, + "C38": 0.0999999984, + "C39": 0.0145104822, + "D44": 0.1093457308, + "G54": 0.049999985, + "I65": 0.0620627221, + "K70": 0.0161246938, + "M75": 0.0447203646 + } + }, + "gross_weight": 0.9999991328, + "cash_weight": 8.672000000320423e-07, + "turnover": 0.4999995664, + "turnover_definition": "one_sided = 0.5 * sum(|w - w_prev|)", + "first_build": true, + "min_reported_weight": 0.0001, + "pruned_weight": 8.675000000000001e-07, + "factor_skipped": [], + "factor_ic": { + "lookback": 252, + "min_obs": 20, + "window": { + "start": "2025-10-09", + "end": "2026-10-22", + "n": 252, + "factor": "ep" + }, + "per_factor": { + "ep": { + "mean_ic": 0.011799740612793187, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2025-10-09", + "window_end": "2026-10-22", + "weight": 0.23259490442611314 + }, + "turnover20d": { + "mean_ic": -0.03893112402891925, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2025-10-09", + "window_end": "2026-10-22", + "weight": -0.7674050955738869 + } + } + }, + "signal": { + "composite_min": -3.0835347360308605, + "composite_max": 1.6445982454886527, + "composite_mean": 2.2070788155090068e-15, + "alpha_convention": "cross-sectional percentile rank - 0.5 (MeanVarianceOptimizer input; composite z is the delivered signal)" + }, + "covariance_assets": 297, + "covariance_sessions": 252, + "covariance_input_sessions": 2134, + "optimizer": { + "name": "MeanVarianceOptimizer", + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "selected": null, + "fallback_count": 0, + "fallback_reason": null, + "received_sector_map": true + }, + "warnings": [ + "first build: one-sided turnover 0.5000 against a zero book exceeds the 0.3000 cap; the cap is not applied to a first build (nothing to trade from; the platform engine also passes prev_weights=None on its first rebalance)" + ] + }, + "disclaimer": "paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha -- this book is the long side of a wide-pool EP + low-turnover style exposure; the R31 research found no statistically significant incremental alpha. Research output only; not investment advice. No broker, no orders.", + "r31": { + "generator": ".scratch/orchestrate/r31_wide_value.py", + "merge_cache": ".scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet", + "strategy": "EP + turnover20d, industry-neutral factors, rank-normalised MVO, 30% sector cap, 5% single-name cap", + "execution_note": "paper tracking only; execution day is the first cached session strictly after as_of (expected 2026-10-26; not yet in the cache)", + "data_vintage": "Sina hfq daily through 2026-10-23; Baidu PE(TTM)/PB causally ffilled to 2026-10-23 from the last observed point at or before it (effective PE age: median 7d, max 21d; the 2026-10-24 source point is excluded)", + "valuation_vintage": { + "pe_ttm": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "pb_mrq": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "n_assets_with_close_on_signal_date": 299, + "note": "Baidu publishes valuation points sparsely (per-asset median gap ~8 days). The book therefore uses the last observation at or before as_of; a later source point (2026-10-24) exists in the vendor file and is excluded by construction. The per-field n counts all 300 panel names with a prior observation (002717 is suspended on as_of but has one); the tradable signal-date universe is 299." + }, + "research_caveat": "R31 wide-pool EP variants found no statistically significant incremental alpha; this book is a style-tilt demo, not validated alpha", + "cap_checks": { + "n_holdings": 32, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999996, + "max_weight_cap": 0.05, + "max_weight_ok": true, + "gross_weight": 0.9999991328, + "cash_weight": 8.672000000320423e-07, + "gross_ok": true, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1349241636, + "max_sector_cap": 0.3, + "max_sector_ok": true, + "sector_weights": { + "C14": 0.09999999779999999, + "C17": 0.0299257562, + "C26": 0.06627782609999999, + "C27": 0.1238434327, + "C29": 0.0898384735, + "C34": 0.058425506, + "C35": 0.1349241636, + "C38": 0.0999999984, + "C39": 0.0145104822, + "D44": 0.1093457308, + "G54": 0.049999985, + "I65": 0.0620627221, + "K70": 0.0161246938, + "M75": 0.0447203646 + }, + "n_sectors_holdings": 14, + "turnover_first_build": 0.4999995664, + "first_build": true, + "optimizer_fallbacks": 0, + "factor_skipped": [], + "valuation_vintage_on_signal_date": { + "pe_ttm": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "pb_mrq": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "n_assets_with_close_on_signal_date": 299, + "note": "Baidu publishes valuation points sparsely (per-asset median gap ~8 days). The book therefore uses the last observation at or before as_of; a later source point (2026-10-24) exists in the vendor file and is excluded by construction. The per-field n counts all 300 panel names with a prior observation (002717 is suspended on as_of but has one); the tradable signal-date universe is 299." + }, + "coverage_on_signal_date": { + "date": "2026-10-23", + "universe_with_close": 299, + "n_assets": 300, + "n_pe_present": 299, + "n_pe_positive": 199, + "n_pe_nonpositive": 100, + "n_pe_missing": 0, + "n_ep_valid_with_close": 199, + "n_turnover20_valid": 298, + "selection_pool_ep_or_turnover": 299, + "note": "non-positive/missing PE gets no EP value; the name is not removed from the turnover leg and is not silently excluded -- daily_signal builds the composite with the missing factor neutral (0 after z-score) and reports factor coverage; the counts above make it explicit" + }, + "pass": true + }, + "pit_future_test": { + "future_rows": { + "dates": [ + "2026-10-26", + "2026-10-27", + "2026-10-28", + "2026-10-29", + "2026-10-30" + ], + "construction": "close x (+-3% by asset) x daily drift; PE=2 for half the names, PE=500 for the other half; turnover 1..13; pct_chg +-3%" + }, + "same_as_of": "2026-10-23", + "base_signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "future_run_signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "same_as_of_max_weight_diff": 0.0, + "same_as_of_identical": true, + "shifted_as_of": "2026-10-30", + "shifted_max_weight_diff": 0.0499999999, + "shifted_book_changed": true, + "pass": true + } + } +} diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v2_incomplete_st_snapshot.csv b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v2_incomplete_st_snapshot.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6879300 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/forward_targets/ep_turnover/superseded/target_2026-10-23_v2_incomplete_st_snapshot.csv @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +code,weight,target_value_cny +000543,0.0499999997,100000.00 +000631,0.0262454755,52490.95 +000726,0.0421480053,84296.01 +000755,0.0499999993,100000.00 +000883,0.0499999999,100000.00 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".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2022-08-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2022-09-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2022-10-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2022-11-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2022-12-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-01-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-02-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-03-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-04-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-05-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-06-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-07-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-08-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-09-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-10-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-11-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2023-12-29.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-01-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-02-29.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-03-29.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-04-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-05-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-06-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-07-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-08-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-09-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-10-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-11-29.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2024-12-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-01-27.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-02-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-03-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-04-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-05-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-06-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-07-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-08-29.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-09-30.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-10-31.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-11-28.json", + ".scratch/orchestrate/roll_targets/targets_2025-12-31.json" + ], + "targets_sha256": "8427bf73d9c545936b9baba00a9c294128cf6adcd97a7d1fe73a84920ac8bb80", + "tracking": { + "difference": 0.411999672591042, + "tracking_error": 0.08981259580969866 + }, + "tradable_gate": "execution buys require close > 0, finite pct_chg, volume > 0 (R9 tradable_mask) and pct_chg <= 9.8% (R19a limit-up approximation); blocked weight stays in cash with a warning; at a rebalance, limit-down blocks the sell and limit-up blocks the buy", + "turnover": { + "definition": "realised one-sided turnover = 0.5 * (buys + sells) / pre-cost portfolio value, per executed rebalance", + "mean_per_rebalance": 0.07802865453420964, + "total": 5.540034471928885 + }, + "volatility_basis": "rolling(20, min_periods=5).std() of pct_chg/100 through the execution close, masking suspension and resume-day gap returns as data/pipeline.py does; short histories fall back to 2% daily", + "warnings": [ + "pending target(s) with no cached session after as_of: targets_2025-12-31.json (2025-12-31)", + "2020-02-03: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-03-02: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-04-01: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-05-06: rebalance sell of 000403 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2020-05-06: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-06-01: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-07-01: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-08-03: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-09-01: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-10-09: rebalance buy of 000010 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9744% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2020-10-09: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-11-02: rebalance buy of 000029 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2020-12-01: rebalance buy of 000048 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0219% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-04-01: rebalance buy of 000065 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0423% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-05-06: rebalance sell of 000301 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2021-05-06: rebalance buy of 000062 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0000% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-05-06: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 91.7890% of the intended notional", + "2021-09-01: rebalance sell of 000016 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2021-09-01: rebalance sell of 000422 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -10.0048% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2021-09-01: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 42.7183% of the intended notional", + "2021-11-01: rebalance buy of 000062 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0000% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-12-01: rebalance sell of 000401 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2021-12-01: rebalance buy of 000032 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0216% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-12-01: rebalance buy of 000068 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0000% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2021-12-01: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 97.9084% of the intended notional", + "2022-05-05: rebalance buy of 000038 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2022-08-01: rebalance buy of 000425 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2023-02-01: rebalance buy of 000026 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9832% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2023-05-04: rebalance sell of 000038 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2023-05-04: rebalance buy of 000007 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2023-05-31: 000038 had no valid price for 20 consecutive sessions; liquidated at its last close 3.430000 and held as cash (no trade cost: no tradable price exists)", + "2023-06-01: rebalance buy of 000038 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2023-10-09: rebalance buy of 000410 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2024-02-01: rebalance sell of 000020 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -10.0066% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2024-02-01: rebalance sell of 000025 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -10.0000% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2024-02-01: rebalance sell of 000068 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -9.9796% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2024-02-01: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 58.0919% of the intended notional", + "2024-04-01: rebalance buy of 000005 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); its weight stays in cash", + "2024-04-01: rebalance buy of 000100 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0642% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-04-02: 000005 had no valid price for 20 consecutive sessions; liquidated at its last close 0.830000 and held as cash (no trade cost: no tradable price exists)", + "2024-05-06: rebalance sell of 000413 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2024-05-06: rebalance buy of 000005 has no valid close on the rebalance date; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-05-06: rebalance buy of 000017 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9719% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-05-31: 000413 had no valid price for 20 consecutive sessions; liquidated at its last close 1.430000 and held as cash (no trade cost: no tradable price exists)", + "2024-06-03: rebalance buy of 000005 has no valid close on the rebalance date; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-07-01: rebalance sell of 000007 is not tradable on the rebalance date (missing pct_chg or zero/NaN volume); the position is held at its current weight", + "2024-07-01: rebalance buy of 000005 has no valid close on the rebalance date; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-08-01: rebalance buy of 000005 has no valid close on the rebalance date; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-09-02: rebalance buy of 000005 has no valid close on the rebalance date; its weight stays in cash", + "2024-10-08: rebalance buy of 000063 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0161% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2025-03-03: rebalance sell of 000096 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -10.0000% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2025-03-03: rebalance buy of 000409 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 9.9692% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2025-03-03: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 73.2476% of the intended notional", + "2025-05-06: rebalance buy of 000158 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0177% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash", + "2025-10-09: rebalance sell of 000029 closed limit-down on the rebalance date (pct_chg -10.0060% < -9.8%); the sell is blocked; the position is held at its current weight", + "2025-10-09: cash constraint scaled rebalance buys to 99.4219% of the intended notional", + "2025-12-01: rebalance buy of 000063 closed limit-up on the rebalance date (pct_chg 10.0024% > 9.8%); the buy is blocked; its weight stays in cash" + ] +} diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/summary.json b/docs/research/paper_track/summary.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ae015bf --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/summary.json @@ -0,0 +1,53 @@ +{ + "annualization_periods_per_year": 252, + "as_of": "2025-06-30", + "benchmark": { + "annualized_return": 0.28489704815065586, + "annualized_volatility": 0.14683909122471378, + "definition": "equal-weight daily-rebalanced mean of the cached universe's pct_chg close-to-close returns over the same window; stale observations are excluded from that session", + "max_drawdown": -0.06757198652891483, + "sharpe_ratio": 1.735893664450542, + "total_return": 0.13353299385181372 + }, + "benchmark_definition": "equal-weight daily-rebalanced mean of the cached universe's pct_chg close-to-close returns over the same window; stale observations are excluded from that session", + "cache_last_date": "2025-12-31", + "capital": 2000000.0, + "cash_weight_at_build": 1.1170999998366682e-06, + "cost_mode": "impact", + "costs": { + "pct_of_capital": 0.000586939103, + "total_cny": 1173.878206 + }, + "disclaimer": "paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha", + "execution_date": "2025-07-01", + "first_ledger_date": "2025-07-01", + "last_ledger_date": "2025-12-31", + "ledger_version": 2, + "max_stale_sessions": 20, + "n_purchased_assets": 21, + "n_sessions": 126, + "n_target_assets": 21, + "return_basis": "pct_chg/100 (Baostock ex-rights preclose); raw close is used only for volume x price cost conversion and the stale liquidation reference", + "risk_free_rate": 0.03, + "since_inception": { + "annualized_return": 0.2934509170395154, + "annualized_volatility": 0.13309232911356236, + "final_nav": 2274599.672093, + "max_drawdown": -0.042763127007762414, + "max_drawdown_peak": "2025-08-29", + "max_drawdown_trough": "2025-09-26", + "n_stale_days": 1, + "sharpe_ratio": 1.979459814056776, + "total_return": 0.13729983604649987 + }, + "stale_policy": "a session is stale when close, pct_chg or volume is missing/invalid or the volume is zero; hold at the last valid close (return 0, flagged stale); when the price returns the resume-day pct_chg carries the gap return; after max_stale_sessions consecutive stale sessions, liquidate at the last valid close with no extra trade cost (no tradable price exists) and hold the proceeds as cash", + "target_file": "docs/research/paper_track/target_demo_2025-06-30.json", + "target_sha256": "e27f9510b239b8ae7ed1eba5fa29eb0944cd564b3db89b6c2d02e6c161190017", + "tracking": { + "difference": 0.0037668421946861486, + "tracking_error": 0.07611396581184664 + }, + "tradable_gate": "execution buys require close > 0, finite pct_chg, volume > 0 (R9 tradable_mask) and pct_chg <= 9.8% (R19a limit-up approximation); blocked weight stays in cash with a warning", + "volatility_basis": "rolling(20, min_periods=5).std() of pct_chg/100 through the execution close, masking suspension and resume-day gap returns as data/pipeline.py does; short histories fall back to 2% daily", + "warnings": [] +} diff --git a/docs/research/paper_track/target_demo_2025-06-30.json b/docs/research/paper_track/target_demo_2025-06-30.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d86d270 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/paper_track/target_demo_2025-06-30.json @@ -0,0 +1,114 @@ +{ + "as_of": "2025-06-30", + "data_end": "2025-06-30", + "factors": [ + "ep", + "turnover20d" + ], + "weights": { + "000001": 0.0499999998, + "000012": 0.0499999996, + "000019": 0.0499999999, + "000027": 0.0499999999, + "000028": 0.0499999998, + "000039": 0.0474757909, + "000061": 0.0499999999, + "000063": 0.0334175842, + "000070": 0.0499999996, + "000089": 0.0499999999, + "000100": 0.0422056336, + "000158": 0.0397796613, + "000301": 0.0499999997, + "000333": 0.0499999999, + "000400": 0.0371202397, + "000403": 0.0499999998, + "000408": 0.0499999759, + "000411": 0.0499999999, + "000423": 0.0499999999, + "000429": 0.0499999999, + "000498": 0.0499999998 + }, + "signal_date": "2025-06-30", + "provenance": { + "tool": "tools/daily_signal.py", + "cache": ".cache\\baostock\\daily_2018-01-01_2025-12-31_500.parquet", + "industry_map": ".cache\\baostock\\industry_map.parquet", + "industry_neutralization": true, + "prev_weights": null, + "capital_cny": 2000000.0, + "max_weight": 0.05, + "max_turnover": 0.3, + "risk_aversion": 1.0, + "transaction_cost_bps": 20.0, + "turnover_penalty": 0.5, + "covariance": "ledoit_wolf", + "covariance_lookback": 252, + "ic_lookback": 252, + "ic_min_obs": 20, + "winsorize": [ + 0.01, + 0.99 + ], + "standardize": "zscore", + "returns_convention": "pct_chg/100 shift(-1) computed within the panel sliced to date <= as_of; the signal date's forward label is NaN and excluded from IC and covariance" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "history_sessions": 1816, + "data_lag_days": 0, + "universe_assets": 101, + "candidates": 89, + "n_holdings": 21, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999999, + "gross_weight": 0.9999988829000002, + "cash_weight": 1.1170999998366682e-06, + "turnover": 0.4999994414500001, + "turnover_definition": "one_sided = 0.5 * sum(|w - w_prev|)", + "first_build": true, + "min_reported_weight": 0.0001, + "pruned_weight": 1.1169e-06, + "factor_skipped": [], + "factor_ic": { + "lookback": 252, + "min_obs": 20, + "window": { + "start": "2024-06-14", + "end": "2025-06-27", + "n": 252, + "factor": "ep" + }, + "per_factor": { + "ep": { + "mean_ic": 0.012290719976489969, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2024-06-14", + "window_end": "2025-06-27", + "weight": 0.2882578642253117 + }, + "turnover20d": { + "mean_ic": -0.030347214671090517, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2024-06-14", + "window_end": "2025-06-27", + "weight": -0.7117421357746884 + } + } + }, + "signal": { + "composite_min": -2.368552367565749, + "composite_max": 1.3163408224709618, + "composite_mean": 8.806937700959107e-16, + "alpha_convention": "cross-sectional percentile rank - 0.5 (MeanVarianceOptimizer input; composite z is the delivered signal)" + }, + "covariance_assets": 90, + "covariance_sessions": 252, + "covariance_input_sessions": 1815, + "optimizer": { + "name": "MeanVarianceOptimizer", + "fallback_count": 0, + "fallback_reason": null + }, + "warnings": [ + "first build: one-sided turnover 0.5000 against a zero book exceeds the 0.3000 cap; the cap is not applied to a first build (nothing to trade from; the platform engine also passes prev_weights=None on its first rebalance)" + ] + } +} diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.csv b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2fd6c7f --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.csv @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +# style tilt demo, not validated alpha -- research output only, not investment advice. Weights from tools/daily_signal.py as_of 2025-12-31. +code,weight,target_value_cny +000001,0.0499999987,100000.00 +000019,0.0499999995,100000.00 +000026,0.0198785462,39757.09 +000027,0.0499999997,100000.00 +000028,0.0499999998,100000.00 +000029,0.0186354430,37270.89 +000039,0.0450069486,90013.90 +000042,0.0125364446,25072.89 +000050,0.0427554205,85510.84 +000061,0.0431067883,86213.58 +000065,0.0337343948,67468.79 +000066,0.0499999512,99999.90 +000089,0.0499999992,100000.00 +000096,0.0121006302,24201.26 +000100,0.0499999991,100000.00 +000151,0.0001711618,342.32 +000301,0.0266980444,53396.09 +000333,0.0499999998,100000.00 +000338,0.0436986619,87397.32 +000403,0.0499999996,100000.00 +000404,0.0499999996,100000.00 +000409,0.0016775045,3355.01 +000421,0.0499998639,99999.73 +000423,0.0499999998,100000.00 +000429,0.0499999997,100000.00 +000498,0.0499999997,100000.00 diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.json b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7aaadb3 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2025-12-31.json @@ -0,0 +1,159 @@ +{ + "as_of": "2025-12-31", + "data_end": "2025-12-31", + "factors": [ + "ep", + "turnover20d" + ], + "weights": { + "000001": 0.0499999987, + "000019": 0.0499999995, + "000026": 0.0198785462, + "000027": 0.0499999997, + "000028": 0.0499999998, + "000029": 0.018635443, + "000039": 0.0450069486, + "000042": 0.0125364446, + "000050": 0.0427554205, + "000061": 0.0431067883, + "000065": 0.0337343948, + "000066": 0.0499999512, + "000089": 0.0499999992, + "000096": 0.0121006302, + "000100": 0.0499999991, + "000151": 0.0001711618, + "000301": 0.0266980444, + "000333": 0.0499999998, + "000338": 0.0436986619, + "000403": 0.0499999996, + "000404": 0.0499999996, + "000409": 0.0016775045, + "000421": 0.0499998639, + "000423": 0.0499999998, + "000429": 0.0499999997, + "000498": 0.0499999997 + }, + "signal_date": "2025-12-31", + "provenance": { + "tool": "tools/daily_signal.py", + "cache": ".cache\\baostock\\daily_2018-01-01_2025-12-31_500.parquet", + "industry_map": ".cache\\baostock\\industry_map.parquet", + "industry_neutralization": true, + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "max_sector": 0.3, + "sector_cap_enforced": true, + "prev_weights": null, + "capital_cny": 2000000.0, + "max_weight": 0.05, + "max_turnover": 0.3, + "risk_aversion": 1.0, + "transaction_cost_bps": 20.0, + "turnover_penalty": 0.5, + "covariance": "ledoit_wolf", + "covariance_lookback": 252, + "ic_lookback": 252, + "ic_min_obs": 20, + "winsorize": [ + 0.01, + 0.99 + ], + "standardize": "zscore", + "returns_convention": "pct_chg/100 shift(-1) computed within the panel sliced to date <= as_of; the signal date's forward label is NaN and excluded from IC and covariance" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "history_sessions": 1942, + "data_lag_days": 0, + "universe_assets": 101, + "candidates": 88, + "n_holdings": 26, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999998, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1460061861, + "n_sector_cap_binding": 0, + "sector_cap": { + "max_sector_exposure": 0.3, + "enforced": true, + "sector_map_assets": 101, + "n_sectors_universe": 36, + "unknown_assets_universe": 0, + "n_sectors_holdings": 18, + "binding_sectors": [], + "sector_weights": { + "C26": 0.0266980444, + "C27": 0.0999999994, + "C33": 0.0450069486, + "C34": 0.0499999996, + "C36": 0.0436986619, + "C38": 0.0499999998, + "C39": 0.1427553708, + "D44": 0.0499999997, + "D45": 0.0499998639, + "E48": 0.0499999997, + "F51": 0.1460061861, + "F52": 0.0198785462, + "G54": 0.0499999997, + "G56": 0.0499999992, + "I65": 0.0016775045, + "J66": 0.0499999987, + "K70": 0.031171887600000003, + "L72": 0.0431067883 + } + }, + "gross_weight": 0.9999997981, + "cash_weight": 2.0190000005193554e-07, + "turnover": 0.49999989905, + "turnover_definition": "one_sided = 0.5 * sum(|w - w_prev|)", + "first_build": true, + "min_reported_weight": 0.0001, + "pruned_weight": 2.014e-07, + "factor_skipped": [], + "factor_ic": { + "lookback": 252, + "min_obs": 20, + "window": { + "start": "2024-12-18", + "end": "2025-12-30", + "n": 252, + "factor": "ep" + }, + "per_factor": { + "ep": { + "mean_ic": 0.029124007005621528, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2024-12-18", + "window_end": "2025-12-30", + "weight": 0.44205885197761696 + }, + "turnover20d": { + "mean_ic": -0.036758639332826144, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2024-12-18", + "window_end": "2025-12-30", + "weight": -0.557941148022383 + } + } + }, + "signal": { + "composite_min": -2.291305362751381, + "composite_max": 1.5807903688398242, + "composite_mean": 4.718447854656915e-16, + "alpha_convention": "cross-sectional percentile rank - 0.5 (MeanVarianceOptimizer input; composite z is the delivered signal)" + }, + "covariance_assets": 89, + "covariance_sessions": 252, + "covariance_input_sessions": 1941, + "optimizer": { + "name": "MeanVarianceOptimizer", + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "selected": null, + "fallback_count": 0, + "fallback_reason": null, + "received_sector_map": true + }, + "warnings": [ + "first build: one-sided turnover 0.5000 against a zero book exceeds the 0.3000 cap; the cap is not applied to a first build (nothing to trade from; the platform engine also passes prev_weights=None on its first rebalance)" + ] + }, + "disclaimer": "style tilt demo, not validated alpha -- this book is the long side of a low-turnover / value style exposure; the research found no statistically significant residual alpha. Research output only; not investment advice." +} diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.csv b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1930a60 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.csv @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +# paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha -- research output only, not investment advice. Weights from tools/daily_signal.py as_of 2026-10-23. +code,weight,target_value_cny +000543,0.0499999978,100000.00 +000631,0.0149093778,29818.76 +000726,0.0299257562,59851.51 +000755,0.0499999850,99999.97 +000883,0.0499999991,100000.00 +000902,0.0162778503,32555.70 +000948,0.0131518552,26303.71 +001256,0.0347683570,69536.71 +002168,0.0499999988,100000.00 +002262,0.0499999988,100000.00 +002310,0.0093457339,18691.47 +002508,0.0499999996,100000.00 +002650,0.0499999992,100000.00 +002698,0.0277835515,55567.10 +002920,0.0039137481,7827.50 +003018,0.0038065250,7613.05 +003035,0.0447203646,89440.73 +300419,0.0263710236,52742.05 +300559,0.0224096050,44819.21 +300636,0.0238434343,47686.87 +600094,0.0012153160,2430.63 +600388,0.0372797018,74559.40 +600436,0.0499999996,100000.00 +600579,0.0128761086,25752.22 +600817,0.0499999962,99999.99 +600872,0.0499999986,100000.00 +601058,0.0461303729,92260.75 +601100,0.0306419545,61283.91 +603189,0.0001302383,260.48 +603380,0.0105967341,21193.47 +603605,0.0499999758,99999.95 +603726,0.0399015756,79803.15 diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.json b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63c925e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23.json @@ -0,0 +1,281 @@ +{ + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "data_end": "2026-10-23", + "factors": [ + "ep", + "turnover20d" + ], + "weights": { + "000543": 0.0499999978, + "000631": 0.0149093778, + "000726": 0.0299257562, + "000755": 0.049999985, + "000883": 0.0499999991, + "000902": 0.0162778503, + "000948": 0.0131518552, + "001256": 0.034768357, + "002168": 0.0499999988, + "002262": 0.0499999988, + "002310": 0.0093457339, + "002508": 0.0499999996, + "002650": 0.0499999992, + "002698": 0.0277835515, + "002920": 0.0039137481, + "003018": 0.003806525, + "003035": 0.0447203646, + "300419": 0.0263710236, + "300559": 0.022409605, + "300636": 0.0238434343, + "600094": 0.001215316, + "600388": 0.0372797018, + "600436": 0.0499999996, + "600579": 0.0128761086, + "600817": 0.0499999962, + "600872": 0.0499999986, + "601058": 0.0461303729, + "601100": 0.0306419545, + "603189": 0.0001302383, + "603380": 0.0105967341, + "603605": 0.0499999758, + "603726": 0.0399015756 + }, + "signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "provenance": { + "tool": "tools/daily_signal.py", + "cache": "D:\\Desktop\\面试机试人才测评\\lianghua\\quant_platform\\.scratch\\orchestrate\\merged_wide.parquet", + "industry_map": "D:\\Desktop\\面试机试人才测评\\lianghua\\quant_platform\\.cache\\baostock\\industry_map.parquet", + "industry_neutralization": true, + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "max_sector": 0.3, + "sector_cap_enforced": true, + "prev_weights": null, + "capital_cny": 2000000.0, + "max_weight": 0.05, + "max_turnover": 0.3, + "risk_aversion": 1.0, + "transaction_cost_bps": 20.0, + "turnover_penalty": 0.5, + "covariance": "ledoit_wolf", + "covariance_lookback": 252, + "ic_lookback": 252, + "ic_min_obs": 20, + "winsorize": [ + 0.01, + 0.99 + ], + "standardize": "zscore", + "returns_convention": "pct_chg/100 shift(-1) computed within the panel sliced to date <= as_of; the signal date's forward label is NaN and excluded from IC and covariance" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "history_sessions": 2135, + "data_lag_days": 0, + "universe_assets": 300, + "candidates": 299, + "n_holdings": 32, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999996, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1349241636, + "n_sector_cap_binding": 0, + "sector_cap": { + "max_sector_exposure": 0.3, + "enforced": true, + "sector_map_assets": 300, + "n_sectors_universe": 57, + "unknown_assets_universe": 2, + "n_sectors_holdings": 14, + "binding_sectors": [], + "sector_weights": { + "C14": 0.09999999779999999, + "C17": 0.0299257562, + "C26": 0.06627782609999999, + "C27": 0.1238434327, + "C29": 0.0898384735, + "C34": 0.058425506, + "C35": 0.1349241636, + "C38": 0.0999999984, + "C39": 0.0145104822, + "D44": 0.1093457308, + "G54": 0.049999985, + "I65": 0.0620627221, + "K70": 0.0161246938, + "M75": 0.0447203646 + } + }, + "gross_weight": 0.9999991328, + "cash_weight": 8.672000000320423e-07, + "turnover": 0.4999995664, + "turnover_definition": "one_sided = 0.5 * sum(|w - w_prev|)", + "first_build": true, + "min_reported_weight": 0.0001, + "pruned_weight": 8.675000000000001e-07, + "factor_skipped": [], + "factor_ic": { + "lookback": 252, + "min_obs": 20, + "window": { + "start": "2025-10-09", + "end": "2026-10-22", + "n": 252, + "factor": "ep" + }, + "per_factor": { + "ep": { + "mean_ic": 0.011799740612793187, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2025-10-09", + "window_end": "2026-10-22", + "weight": 0.23259490442611314 + }, + "turnover20d": { + "mean_ic": -0.03893112402891925, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2025-10-09", + "window_end": "2026-10-22", + "weight": -0.7674050955738869 + } + } + }, + "signal": { + "composite_min": -3.0835347360308605, + "composite_max": 1.6445982454886527, + "composite_mean": 2.2070788155090068e-15, + "alpha_convention": "cross-sectional percentile rank - 0.5 (MeanVarianceOptimizer input; composite z is the delivered signal)" + }, + "covariance_assets": 297, + "covariance_sessions": 252, + "covariance_input_sessions": 2134, + "optimizer": { + "name": "MeanVarianceOptimizer", + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "selected": null, + "fallback_count": 0, + "fallback_reason": null, + "received_sector_map": true + }, + "warnings": [ + "first build: one-sided turnover 0.5000 against a zero book exceeds the 0.3000 cap; the cap is not applied to a first build (nothing to trade from; the platform engine also passes prev_weights=None on its first rebalance)" + ] + }, + "disclaimer": "paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha -- this book is the long side of a wide-pool EP + low-turnover style exposure; the R31 research found no statistically significant incremental alpha. Research output only; not investment advice. No broker, no orders.", + "r31": { + "generator": ".scratch/orchestrate/r31_wide_value.py", + "merge_cache": ".scratch/orchestrate/merged_wide.parquet", + "strategy": "EP + turnover20d, industry-neutral factors, rank-normalised MVO, 30% sector cap, 5% single-name cap", + "execution_note": "paper tracking only; execution day is the first cached session strictly after as_of (expected 2026-10-26; not yet in the cache)", + "data_vintage": "Sina hfq daily through 2026-10-23; Baidu PE(TTM)/PB causally ffilled to 2026-10-23 from the last observed point at or before it (effective PE age: median 7d, max 21d; the 2026-10-24 source point is excluded)", + "valuation_vintage": { + "pe_ttm": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "pb_mrq": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "n_assets_with_close_on_signal_date": 299, + "note": "Baidu publishes valuation points sparsely (per-asset median gap ~8 days). The book therefore uses the last observation at or before as_of; a later source point (2026-10-24) exists in the vendor file and is excluded by construction. The per-field n counts all 300 panel names with a prior observation (002717 is suspended on as_of but has one); the tradable signal-date universe is 299." + }, + "research_caveat": "R31 wide-pool EP variants found no statistically significant incremental alpha; this book is a style-tilt demo, not validated alpha", + "cap_checks": { + "n_holdings": 32, + "max_weight_actual": 0.0499999996, + "max_weight_cap": 0.05, + "max_weight_ok": true, + "gross_weight": 0.9999991328, + "cash_weight": 8.672000000320423e-07, + "gross_ok": true, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1349241636, + "max_sector_cap": 0.3, + "max_sector_ok": true, + "sector_weights": { + "C14": 0.09999999779999999, + "C17": 0.0299257562, + "C26": 0.06627782609999999, + "C27": 0.1238434327, + "C29": 0.0898384735, + "C34": 0.058425506, + "C35": 0.1349241636, + "C38": 0.0999999984, + "C39": 0.0145104822, + "D44": 0.1093457308, + "G54": 0.049999985, + "I65": 0.0620627221, + "K70": 0.0161246938, + "M75": 0.0447203646 + }, + "n_sectors_holdings": 14, + "turnover_first_build": 0.4999995664, + "first_build": true, + "optimizer_fallbacks": 0, + "factor_skipped": [], + "valuation_vintage_on_signal_date": { + "pe_ttm": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "pb_mrq": { + "n_assets_with_prior_observation": 300, + "median_age_days": 7.0, + "p90_age_days": 17.0, + "min_age_days": 0, + "max_age_days": 21, + "n_same_day": 12, + "last_source_date_overall": "2026-10-24" + }, + "n_assets_with_close_on_signal_date": 299, + "note": "Baidu publishes valuation points sparsely (per-asset median gap ~8 days). The book therefore uses the last observation at or before as_of; a later source point (2026-10-24) exists in the vendor file and is excluded by construction. The per-field n counts all 300 panel names with a prior observation (002717 is suspended on as_of but has one); the tradable signal-date universe is 299." + }, + "coverage_on_signal_date": { + "date": "2026-10-23", + "universe_with_close": 299, + "n_assets": 300, + "n_pe_present": 299, + "n_pe_positive": 199, + "n_pe_nonpositive": 100, + "n_pe_missing": 0, + "n_ep_valid_with_close": 199, + "n_turnover20_valid": 298, + "selection_pool_ep_or_turnover": 299, + "note": "non-positive/missing PE gets no EP value; the name is not removed from the turnover leg and is not silently excluded -- daily_signal builds the composite with the missing factor neutral (0 after z-score) and reports factor coverage; the counts above make it explicit" + }, + "pass": true + }, + "pit_future_test": { + "future_rows": { + "dates": [ + "2026-10-26", + "2026-10-27", + "2026-10-28", + "2026-10-29", + "2026-10-30" + ], + "construction": "close x (+-3% by asset) x daily drift; PE=2 for half the names, PE=500 for the other half; turnover 1..13; pct_chg +-3%" + }, + "same_as_of": "2026-10-23", + "base_signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "future_run_signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "same_as_of_max_weight_diff": 0.0, + "same_as_of_identical": true, + "shifted_as_of": "2026-10-30", + "shifted_max_weight_diff": 0.0499999999, + "shifted_book_changed": true, + "pass": true + } + } +} diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.csv b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ebe0dc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.csv @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +code,weight,target_value_cny +000543,0.0373709781,74741.96 +000631,0.0214004529,42800.91 +000755,0.0358977600,71795.52 +000801,0.0044530865,8906.17 +000883,0.0499999999,100000.00 +000948,0.0233870017,46774.00 +001256,0.0038311669,7662.33 +002025,0.0034981825,6996.36 +002168,0.0499999999,100000.00 +002262,0.0499999999,100000.00 +002508,0.0499999999,100000.00 +002650,0.0499999999,100000.00 +002698,0.0278685348,55737.07 +002920,0.0086579838,17315.97 +003018,0.0094522311,18904.46 +003035,0.0499999997,100000.00 +300105,0.0044961822,8992.36 +300419,0.0322192323,64438.46 +300559,0.0283656988,56731.40 +300636,0.0441116615,88223.32 +300888,0.0402685721,80537.14 +301236,0.0005554002,1110.80 +301356,0.0056319491,11263.90 +600094,0.0021559926,4311.99 +600388,0.0483883297,96776.66 +600436,0.0500000000,100000.00 +600579,0.0218298137,43659.63 +600817,0.0499999998,100000.00 +600872,0.0499999998,100000.00 +601058,0.0499999868,99999.97 +601100,0.0341609572,68321.91 +603060,0.0129253229,25850.65 +603189,0.0010870274,2174.05 +603380,0.0017118297,3423.66 +603726,0.0415298024,83059.60 +603825,0.0047448323,9489.66 diff --git a/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.json b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a3a4030 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/research/target_portfolio_2026-10-23_turnover.json @@ -0,0 +1,158 @@ +{ + "as_of": "2026-10-23", + "data_end": "2026-10-23", + "factors": [ + "turnover20d" + ], + "weights": { + "000543": 0.0373709781, + "000631": 0.0214004529, + "000755": 0.03589776, + "000801": 0.0044530865, + "000883": 0.0499999999, + "000948": 0.0233870017, + "001256": 0.0038311669, + "002025": 0.0034981825, + "002168": 0.0499999999, + "002262": 0.0499999999, + "002508": 0.0499999999, + "002650": 0.0499999999, + "002698": 0.0278685348, + "002920": 0.0086579838, + "003018": 0.0094522311, + "003035": 0.0499999997, + "300105": 0.0044961822, + "300419": 0.0322192323, + "300559": 0.0283656988, + "300636": 0.0441116615, + "300888": 0.0402685721, + "301236": 0.0005554002, + "301356": 0.0056319491, + "600094": 0.0021559926, + "600388": 0.0483883297, + "600436": 0.05, + "600579": 0.0218298137, + "600817": 0.0499999998, + "600872": 0.0499999998, + "601058": 0.0499999868, + "601100": 0.0341609572, + "603060": 0.0129253229, + "603189": 0.0010870274, + "603380": 0.0017118297, + "603726": 0.0415298024, + "603825": 0.0047448323 + }, + "signal_date": "2026-10-23", + "provenance": { + "tool": "tools/daily_signal.py", + "cache": ".scratch\\orchestrate\\merged_wide.parquet", + "industry_map": ".cache\\baostock\\industry_map.parquet", + "industry_neutralization": true, + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "max_sector": 0.3, + "sector_cap_enforced": true, + "prev_weights": null, + "capital_cny": 2000000.0, + "max_weight": 0.05, + "max_turnover": 0.3, + "risk_aversion": 1.0, + "transaction_cost_bps": 20.0, + "turnover_penalty": 0.5, + "covariance": "ledoit_wolf", + "covariance_lookback": 252, + "ic_lookback": 252, + "ic_min_obs": 20, + "winsorize": [ + 0.01, + 0.99 + ], + "standardize": "zscore", + "returns_convention": "pct_chg/100 shift(-1) computed within the panel sliced to date <= as_of; the signal date's forward label is NaN and excluded from IC and covariance" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "history_sessions": 2135, + "data_lag_days": 0, + "universe_assets": 300, + "candidates": 298, + "n_holdings": 36, + "max_weight_actual": 0.05, + "max_sector_weight": 0.1441116614, + "n_sector_cap_binding": 0, + "sector_cap": { + "max_sector_exposure": 0.3, + "enforced": true, + "sector_map_assets": 300, + "n_sectors_universe": 57, + "unknown_assets_universe": 1, + "n_sectors_holdings": 15, + "binding_sectors": [], + "sector_weights": { + "C14": 0.09999999970000001, + "C17": 0.0402685721, + "C27": 0.1441116614, + "C29": 0.10661396940000001, + "C34": 0.062029492000000006, + "C35": 0.1240493101, + "C38": 0.104496182, + "C39": 0.0183210825, + "D44": 0.087370978, + "G54": 0.03589776, + "I65": 0.08561436039999999, + "K70": 0.0235564455, + "L72": 0.0047448323, + "M74": 0.0129253229, + "M75": 0.0499999997 + } + }, + "gross_weight": 0.999999968, + "cash_weight": 3.199999998315661e-08, + "turnover": 0.499999984, + "turnover_definition": "one_sided = 0.5 * sum(|w - w_prev|)", + "first_build": true, + "min_reported_weight": 0.0001, + "pruned_weight": 3.2e-08, + "factor_skipped": [], + "factor_ic": { + "lookback": 252, + "min_obs": 20, + "window": { + "start": "2025-10-09", + "end": "2026-10-22", + "n": 252, + "factor": "turnover20d" + }, + "per_factor": { + "turnover20d": { + "mean_ic": -0.03896580865953061, + "n_obs": 252, + "window_start": "2025-10-09", + "window_end": "2026-10-22", + "weight": -1.0 + } + } + }, + "signal": { + "composite_min": -4.024517562240183, + "composite_max": 2.1027062721197813, + "composite_mean": 2.6183380594179865e-15, + "alpha_convention": "cross-sectional percentile rank - 0.5 (MeanVarianceOptimizer input; composite z is the delivered signal)" + }, + "covariance_assets": 297, + "covariance_sessions": 252, + "covariance_input_sessions": 2134, + "optimizer": { + "name": "MeanVarianceOptimizer", + "construction": "mvo", + "top_n": null, + "selected": null, + "fallback_count": 0, + "fallback_reason": null, + "received_sector_map": true + }, + "warnings": [ + "first build: one-sided turnover 0.5000 against a zero book exceeds the 0.3000 cap; the cap is not applied to a first build (nothing to trade from; the platform engine also passes prev_weights=None on its first rebalance)" + ] + }, + "disclaimer": "paper tracking only; style-tilt demo, not validated alpha" +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git "a/docs/\351\207\217\345\214\226\345\271\263\345\217\260\347\237\255\346\235\277\350\257\212\346\226\255\344\270\216\345\256\236\347\233\230\350\267\257\347\272\277\345\233\276_2026-10-22.docx" "b/docs/\351\207\217\345\214\226\345\271\263\345\217\260\347\237\255\346\235\277\350\257\212\346\226\255\344\270\216\345\256\236\347\233\230\350\267\257\347\272\277\345\233\276_2026-10-22.docx" new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7acad8f Binary files /dev/null and "b/docs/\351\207\217\345\214\226\345\271\263\345\217\260\347\237\255\346\235\277\350\257\212\346\226\255\344\270\216\345\256\236\347\233\230\350\267\257\347\272\277\345\233\276_2026-10-22.docx" differ diff --git a/execution/algorithms.py b/execution/algorithms.py index e50b4a8..c276fad 100644 --- a/execution/algorithms.py +++ b/execution/algorithms.py @@ -68,9 +68,11 @@ class TWAPAlgorithm: Typical: 30min-2hr execution window, 5-20 slices. """ - def __init__(self, num_slices: int = 10, max_participation: float = 0.1): + def __init__(self, num_slices: int = 10, max_participation: float = 0.1, + lot_size: int = 100): self.num_slices = num_slices self.max_participation = max_participation + self.lot_size = max(1, int(lot_size)) def create_plan( self, @@ -78,10 +80,16 @@ def create_plan( start_time: datetime, duration_minutes: int = 60, ) -> ExecutionPlan: - """Create TWAP execution plan.""" - interval = duration_minutes / self.num_slices - qty_per_slice = order.quantity // self.num_slices - remainder = order.quantity - qty_per_slice * self.num_slices + """Create TWAP execution plan. + + Slices are whole A-share lots (default 100 shares). The parent order's + odd-lot remainder, if any, is left unexecuted and reported in a warning. + """ + total_lots = order.quantity // self.lot_size + num_slices = min(self.num_slices, total_lots) if total_lots > 0 else 0 + base_lots = total_lots // num_slices if num_slices else 0 + extra_lots = total_lots - base_lots * num_slices if num_slices else 0 + interval = duration_minutes / num_slices if num_slices else 0.0 plan = ExecutionPlan( parent_order_id=order.order_id, @@ -91,12 +99,13 @@ def create_plan( total_quantity=order.quantity, start_time=start_time.isoformat(), end_time=(start_time + timedelta(minutes=duration_minutes)).isoformat(), - num_slices=self.num_slices, + num_slices=num_slices, max_participation=self.max_participation, ) - for i in range(self.num_slices): - slice_qty = qty_per_slice + (1 if i < remainder else 0) + for i in range(num_slices): + lots = base_lots + (1 if i < extra_lots else 0) + slice_qty = lots * self.lot_size target_time = start_time + timedelta(minutes=i * interval) plan.slices.append(ExecutionSlice( @@ -107,9 +116,18 @@ def create_plan( target_time=target_time.isoformat(), )) + allocated = sum(s.quantity for s in plan.slices) + if allocated != order.quantity: + logger.warning( + "TWAP plan for %s allocates %d of %d shares; %d share(s) are " + "not a whole %d-share lot and were left unexecuted", + order.ticker, allocated, order.quantity, + order.quantity - allocated, self.lot_size, + ) + logger.info("TWAP plan: %s %s x%d over %d min in %d slices", order.side.value, order.ticker, order.quantity, - duration_minutes, self.num_slices) + duration_minutes, len(plan.slices)) return plan @@ -123,9 +141,11 @@ class VWAPAlgorithm: Requires: Historical intraday volume profile data. """ - def __init__(self, num_slices: int = 10, max_participation: float = 0.08): + def __init__(self, num_slices: int = 10, max_participation: float = 0.08, + lot_size: int = 100): self.num_slices = num_slices self.max_participation = max_participation + self.lot_size = max(1, int(lot_size)) def get_volume_profile(self, ticker: str) -> list[float]: """Get typical intraday volume distribution (normalized to sum=1). @@ -185,7 +205,9 @@ def create_plan( break if i == n_slices - 1: - slice_qty = remaining # last slice takes the remainder + # The final slice must be a whole lot too: an odd-lot + # remainder cannot be bought on the exchange. + slice_qty = (remaining // self.lot_size) * self.lot_size else: # The lot floor can exceed what is left on a small order: a flat # volume profile with a 200-share order over 10 slices wants @@ -194,8 +216,8 @@ def create_plan( # and the plan came out as # [100, 100, 0, -100, -200, ..., -700] # -- negative child quantities for a 200-share parent. - slice_qty = max(100, int(order.quantity * volume_profile[i])) - slice_qty = (slice_qty // 100) * 100 # round down to a lot + slice_qty = max(self.lot_size, int(order.quantity * volume_profile[i])) + slice_qty = (slice_qty // self.lot_size) * self.lot_size # round down to a lot slice_qty = min(slice_qty, remaining) if slice_qty <= 0: @@ -237,9 +259,11 @@ class IcebergAlgorithm: Typical: visible_qty = 5-10% of total. """ - def __init__(self, visible_pct: float = 0.1, randomize: bool = True): + def __init__(self, visible_pct: float = 0.1, randomize: bool = True, + lot_size: int = 100): self.visible_pct = visible_pct self.randomize = randomize + self.lot_size = max(1, int(lot_size)) def create_plan( self, @@ -248,8 +272,8 @@ def create_plan( duration_minutes: int = 120, ) -> ExecutionPlan: """Create iceberg execution plan.""" - visible_qty = max(100, int(order.quantity * self.visible_pct)) - visible_qty = (visible_qty // 100) * 100 + visible_qty = max(self.lot_size, int(order.quantity * self.visible_pct)) + visible_qty = (visible_qty // self.lot_size) * self.lot_size num_slices = max(1, order.quantity // visible_qty) interval = duration_minutes / num_slices @@ -273,11 +297,15 @@ def create_plan( if self.randomize and i < num_slices - 1: jitter = 1.0 + (rng.random() - 0.5) * 0.6 slice_qty = min(remaining, int(visible_qty * jitter)) - slice_qty = max(100, (slice_qty // 100) * 100) + slice_qty = max(self.lot_size, (slice_qty // self.lot_size) * self.lot_size) else: - slice_qty = remaining + # The last refill must still be a whole lot; any odd-lot + # remainder is left unexecuted. + slice_qty = (remaining // self.lot_size) * self.lot_size slice_qty = min(slice_qty, remaining) + if slice_qty <= 0: + break remaining -= slice_qty target_time = start_time + timedelta(minutes=i * interval) @@ -293,6 +321,7 @@ def create_plan( if remaining <= 0: break + plan.num_slices = len(plan.slices) logger.info("Iceberg plan: %s %s x%d, visible=%d, %d slices", order.side.value, order.ticker, order.quantity, visible_qty, len(plan.slices)) @@ -395,3 +424,149 @@ def execute( start_time=datetime.now(), duration_minutes=params.get("duration_minutes", 60), ) + + +@dataclass +class ExecutionReport: + """Result of submitting one ExecutionPlan to an order manager.""" + plan_id: str + ticker: str + side: str + algorithm: str + requested_quantity: int + filled_quantity: int = 0 + notional: float = 0.0 + average_price: float = 0.0 + order_ids: list[str] = field(default_factory=list) + fills: list[dict] = field(default_factory=list) + rejects: list[dict] = field(default_factory=list) + status: str = "pending" # completed / partial / rejected + + def to_dict(self) -> dict: + return { + "plan_id": self.plan_id, + "ticker": self.ticker, + "side": self.side, + "algorithm": self.algorithm, + "requested_quantity": self.requested_quantity, + "filled_quantity": self.filled_quantity, + "average_price": round(self.average_price, 6), + "order_ids": self.order_ids, + "fills": self.fills, + "rejects": self.rejects, + "status": self.status, + } + + +class PlanExecutor: + """Execute an ExecutionPlan slice by slice through an OMS. + + The algorithms above only produced plans. Nothing turned a slice into an + order, so TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg never moved a position or a unit of cash. + This class is that missing link: every slice becomes a real order + (create -> submit -> fill), so the OMS blotter, positions, T+1 and cash + accounting all apply. + + Timing: this executes the plan immediately. ``target_time`` remains on the + plan for callers that want to schedule slices themselves. + """ + + def __init__(self, order_manager, price_lookup=None): + self.order_manager = order_manager + self.price_lookup = price_lookup + + def execute_plan( + self, + plan: ExecutionPlan, + price: float | None = None, + price_lookup=None, + ) -> ExecutionReport: + """Submit every slice of ``plan`` as an order and fill it. + + Args: + plan: execution plan from TWAP/VWAP/Iceberg/SmartRouter. + price: single execution price applied to every slice. + price_lookup: callable(ticker) -> price, used when ``price`` is + not supplied. Falls back to the executor's own lookup. + """ + lookup = price_lookup or self.price_lookup + report = ExecutionReport( + plan_id=plan.plan_id, + ticker=plan.ticker, + side=plan.side, + algorithm=plan.algorithm, + requested_quantity=plan.total_quantity, + ) + + for execution_slice in plan.slices: + if execution_slice.quantity <= 0: + report.rejects.append({ + "slice_id": execution_slice.slice_id, + "reason": "non-positive slice quantity", + }) + continue + + fill_price = price + if fill_price is None and lookup is not None: + fill_price = lookup(execution_slice.ticker) + if fill_price is None or fill_price <= 0: + report.rejects.append({ + "slice_id": execution_slice.slice_id, + "reason": "no execution price", + }) + continue + + try: + child = self.order_manager.create_order( + ticker=execution_slice.ticker, + side=execution_slice.side, + quantity=execution_slice.quantity, + order_type="market", + strategy=f"algo:{plan.algorithm}", + notes=f"plan={plan.plan_id} slice={execution_slice.slice_id}", + ) + self.order_manager.submit_order(child.order_id) + self.order_manager.fill_order( + child.order_id, + price=float(fill_price), + quantity=execution_slice.quantity, + ) + except (ValueError, KeyError) as exc: + # Business rejections (T+1 lock, invalid quantity, unknown + # order). Programming errors -- a signature mismatch, a + # missing attribute -- deliberately propagate: swallowing + # them is how the ExecutionService turned every order into a + # false "rejected". + report.rejects.append({ + "slice_id": execution_slice.slice_id, + "reason": str(exc), + }) + continue + + filled = child.filled_quantity + report.order_ids.append(child.order_id) + report.filled_quantity += filled + report.notional += float(fill_price) * filled + report.fills.append({ + "order_id": child.order_id, + "slice_id": execution_slice.slice_id, + "quantity": filled, + "price": round(float(fill_price), 6), + }) + + if report.filled_quantity > 0: + report.average_price = report.notional / report.filled_quantity + if report.filled_quantity >= report.requested_quantity and not report.rejects: + report.status = "completed" + elif report.filled_quantity > 0: + report.status = "partial" + else: + report.status = "rejected" + + logger.info( + "Plan %s executed: %s %s %d/%d @ %.4f (%d slices, %d rejected)", + plan.plan_id, plan.side, plan.ticker, report.filled_quantity, + report.requested_quantity, report.average_price, + len(report.fills), len(report.rejects), + ) + return report diff --git a/execution/engine.py b/execution/engine.py index e616508..ceef1f0 100644 --- a/execution/engine.py +++ b/execution/engine.py @@ -14,7 +14,10 @@ from datetime import datetime from typing import Any +import pandas as pd + from quant_platform.core.events import get_event_bus +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import normalize_corporate_actions from quant_platform.execution.models import ( Fill, Order, @@ -22,6 +25,8 @@ OrderStatus, Position, ) +from quant_platform.execution.oms import require_raw_price_basis +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import normalize_symbol from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) @@ -123,7 +128,25 @@ def apply_fill(order: Order, fill: Fill) -> None: Args: order: The order being filled. fill: The fill to apply. + + Raises: + ValueError: if the order is not in a fillable state + (SUBMITTED/PARTIAL) or the fill quantity is not in + ``(0, order.remaining_quantity]``. The check runs before the + fill is appended or any state changes, so a rejected fill leaves + the order untouched. """ + if order.status not in (OrderStatus.SUBMITTED, OrderStatus.PARTIAL): + raise ValueError( + f"Cannot fill order in {order.status} state " + f"(expected SUBMITTED or PARTIAL)" + ) + if not (0 < fill.quantity <= order.remaining_quantity): + raise ValueError( + f"Invalid fill quantity {fill.quantity}: order {order.order_id} " + f"has {order.remaining_quantity} remaining" + ) + order.fills.append(fill) order.updated_at = fill.timestamp or datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds") @@ -160,6 +183,12 @@ def update_position( ) -> None: """Update a position after a fill using weighted average cost. + Costs are part of the P&L: buy commission (and any buy-side tax) is + capitalised into ``avg_cost`` and sell commission/stamp tax are subtracted + from realised P&L. Without this the strategy ledger (which already + capitalised costs) and the execution engine (which did not) disagreed by + exactly the fee amount on every round trip. + Args: position: The position to update. order: The source order. @@ -168,17 +197,24 @@ def update_position( if order.side == OrderSide.BUY: total_qty = position.quantity + fill.quantity total_cost = (position.avg_cost * position.quantity - + fill.price * fill.quantity) + + fill.price * fill.quantity + + fill.commission + fill.tax) position.avg_cost = total_cost / total_qty if total_qty > 0 else 0.0 position.quantity = total_qty else: # SELL - # Realized PnL = (sell_price - avg_cost) * qty - realized = (fill.price - position.avg_cost) * fill.quantity + # Realized PnL = (sell_price - avg_cost) * qty - fees + realized = ( + (fill.price - position.avg_cost) * fill.quantity + - fill.commission - fill.tax + ) position.realized_pnl += realized position.quantity -= fill.quantity if position.quantity <= 0: position.quantity = 0 position.avg_cost = 0.0 + position.market_value = 0.0 + position.unrealized_pnl = 0.0 + position.unrealized_pnl_pct = 0.0 position.last_updated = fill.timestamp or datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds") @@ -205,17 +241,73 @@ class ExecutionEngine: Same semantics regardless of mode (backtest or live). + A-share safeguards live here rather than only in the orchestrator: + + - **T+1**: buys increase ``Position.quantity`` but not + ``Position.available``; sells are validated against ``available``. + ``new_trading_day()`` releases the prior day's purchases. + - **Naked sells**: a sell larger than the real holding raises instead of + clamping to zero and realising P&L against a zero cost basis. + - **Cash ledger**: when ``initial_cash`` is provided (or + ``enable_cash_tracking`` is called), every fill debits/credits cash + including commission and tax; a buy that would overdraw raises. + - **Fee-aware P&L**: cost basis includes buy costs and realised P&L nets + sell costs, so the engine summary reconciles with strategy books. + Usage: - engine = ExecutionEngine() + engine = ExecutionEngine(initial_cash=1_000_000) order = engine.create_order(ticker="600519", side=OrderSide.BUY, quantity=100) engine.submit_order(order) - engine.process_fill(order, Fill(price=150.0, quantity=100)) + engine.process_fill(order, price=150.0, quantity=100) """ - def __init__(self): + def __init__( + self, + initial_cash: float | None = None, + cash_dividend_tax_rate: float = 0.0, + ): self._orders: dict[str, Order] = {} self._positions: dict[str, Position] = {} self._executed_orders: list[Order] = [] + #: Basis of the most recent fill/mark prices (cash is CNY, so raw). + self.price_basis: str = "raw" + + #: Real cash ledger. Only enforced/mutated when tracking is enabled; + #: engines constructed without `initial_cash` (and never enabled) keep + #: their historical position-only behaviour. + self._cash_tracked = initial_cash is not None + self._initial_cash = float(initial_cash) if initial_cash is not None else 0.0 + self.cash: float = self._initial_cash + + #: A-share T+1: 1 means shares bought today are not sellable until + #: `new_trading_day()`. 0 disables the lock (buy fills immediately + #: become available). + self.t_plus: int = 1 + + #: Corporate-action state (paper/backtest book only). Markers are + #: keyed on ``(canonical_ticker, ex_date)``; call + #: :meth:`restore_corporate_action_markers` after a restart. + self._cash_dividend_tax_rate = max(0.0, float(cash_dividend_tax_rate)) + self._applied_corporate_actions: set[tuple[str, str]] = set() + self._corporate_action_events: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + self._cash_ledger: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + #: Optional feed applied by dated :meth:`new_trading_day` calls. + self._corporate_actions: pd.DataFrame | None = None + + @property + def cash_tracking_enabled(self) -> bool: + return self._cash_tracked + + def enable_cash_tracking(self, initial_cash: float) -> None: + """Start tracking cash from ``initial_cash``. + + Calling this on an engine that already traded positions will not + retroactively account for their cost; the normal path is to enable it + before the first order (the orchestrator does this in ``__init__``). + """ + self._initial_cash = float(initial_cash) + self.cash = self._initial_cash + self._cash_tracked = True @property def orders(self) -> list[Order]: @@ -266,9 +358,14 @@ def process_fill( commission: float = 0.0, tax: float = 0.0, slippage: float = 0.0, + price_basis: str = "raw", ) -> Fill: """Process a fill for an order. + Validation happens before any mutation, so a rejected fill leaves the + order, position and cash untouched. ``price`` must be a raw traded + CNY price; an adjusted basis raises before the book is touched (D15). + Args: order: The order being filled. price: Fill price. @@ -276,10 +373,42 @@ def process_fill( commission: Commission cost. tax: Tax (stamp tax for A-share sells). slippage: Slippage cost. + price_basis: Basis of ``price``; must not be ``qfq``/``hfq``. Returns: The Fill object. + + Raises: + ValueError: on an adjusted price basis, a naked sell (quantity > + holding), a same-day sell of T+1-locked shares, or a buy that + would drive tracked cash below zero. """ + basis = require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis, context="ExecutionEngine fills", + ) + if order.side == OrderSide.SELL: + position = self._positions.get(order.ticker) + held = position.quantity if position else 0 + if quantity > held: + raise ValueError( + f"Naked sell rejected: {order.ticker} holds {held} shares, " + f"order {order.order_id} sells {quantity}" + ) + available = position.available if position else 0 + if self.t_plus > 0 and quantity > available: + raise ValueError( + f"T+1 locked: {order.ticker} has {available} sellable " + f"shares (holding {held}); {held - available} were bought " + f"today" + ) + elif self._cash_tracked: + required = price * quantity + commission + tax + if required > self.cash + 1e-9: + raise ValueError( + f"Insufficient cash: buy of {order.ticker} x{quantity} " + f"requires {required:.2f}, cash balance {self.cash:.2f}" + ) + fill = Fill( price=price, quantity=quantity, @@ -293,7 +422,26 @@ def process_fill( # Update position if order.ticker not in self._positions: self._positions[order.ticker] = Position(ticker=order.ticker) - update_position(self._positions[order.ticker], order, fill) + position = self._positions[order.ticker] + update_position(position, order, fill) + + # Update the cash ledger and T+1 availability. Buy cost includes + # commission (and any buy-side tax); sell proceeds net commission and + # stamp tax. + if order.side == OrderSide.BUY: + if self._cash_tracked: + self.cash -= price * quantity + commission + tax + if self.t_plus <= 0: + position.available += quantity + else: + if self._cash_tracked: + self.cash += price * quantity - commission - tax + position.available = max(position.available - quantity, 0) + + # Mark the position at the fill price so risk consumers see a real + # market value even before the next snapshot. + position.update_price(price) + self.price_basis = basis return fill @@ -307,26 +455,285 @@ def reject_order(self, order: Order) -> None: if order.status in (OrderStatus.PENDING, OrderStatus.SUBMITTED): transition_order(order, OrderStatus.REJECTED) + def expire_order(self, order: Order) -> None: + """Expire an active day order that did not fill.""" + if order.status in (OrderStatus.SUBMITTED, OrderStatus.PARTIAL): + transition_order(order, OrderStatus.EXPIRED) + + def new_trading_day(self, date: str | None = None) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + """Roll T+1 and apply corporate actions on an exchange-day advance. + + Everything held overnight becomes sellable today. When ``date`` is + given and a feed was loaded with :meth:`set_corporate_actions`, every + action with ``ex_date <= date`` that has not been applied yet is + applied exactly once. Omitting ``date`` preserves the historical + T+1-only behaviour. + + Must be called once per trading session before orders are placed + (the orchestrator does this when the exchange date advances). + """ + for position in self._positions.values(): + position.available = position.quantity + if date is None or self._corporate_actions is None: + return [] + return self.apply_corporate_actions( + self._corporate_actions, ex_date=date, + ) + + def mark_to_market( + self, prices: dict[str, float], price_basis: str = "raw", + ) -> None: + """Mark every position at the given raw CNY prices (missing skipped).""" + basis = require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis, context="ExecutionEngine marks", + ) + self.price_basis = basis + for position in self._positions.values(): + price = prices.get(position.ticker, 0.0) + if price > 0: + position.update_price(price) + + # ── Corporate actions (paper/backtest book only) ── + + @property + def corporate_action_markers(self) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + """Applied ``(ticker, ex_date)`` markers for external persistence.""" + return sorted(self._applied_corporate_actions) + + def restore_corporate_action_markers(self, markers) -> None: + """Rehydrate applied markers after a restart (idempotent). + + Accepts any iterable of ``(ticker, ex_date)`` pairs (or a dict with + an ``"applied"`` list, the shape SimulatedBroker persists). + """ + if isinstance(markers, dict): + markers = markers.get("applied", []) + for item in markers or []: + try: + ticker, date_text = item + self._applied_corporate_actions.add( + (normalize_symbol(ticker), str(date_text)) + ) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + continue + + def get_corporate_action_events(self) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + return [dict(event) for event in self._corporate_action_events] + + def get_cash_ledger(self) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + return [dict(entry) for entry in self._cash_ledger] + + def set_corporate_actions(self, actions) -> int: + """Load the pending cash/split feed applied on exchange-day advances.""" + self._corporate_actions = normalize_corporate_actions(actions) + return len(self._corporate_actions) + + def apply_corporate_actions( + self, + actions, + ex_date: str | None = None, + ) -> list[dict[str, Any]]: + """Apply split/cash actions to positions and cash exactly once. + + Same contract and conventions as + :meth:`quant_platform.trading.broker.SimulatedBroker.apply_corporate_actions`: + a split scales ``quantity``/``available`` and divides ``avg_cost`` and + the mark (market value unchanged); a cash dividend credits + ``quantity * cash_per_share * (1 - tax)``, adds it to the position's + realised P&L and lowers the cached mark by the per-share amount so + equity stays continuous. Applied ``(ticker, ex_date)`` markers make + replays no-ops; persist them with + :attr:`corporate_action_markers` / :meth:`restore_corporate_action_markers` + to survive a restart. + """ + frame = normalize_corporate_actions(actions) + if frame.empty: + return [] + cutoff = ( + pd.Timestamp(ex_date).normalize() if ex_date is not None else None + ) + rows = frame.copy() + rows["_order"] = rows["kind"].map( + lambda kind: 0 if kind == "cash" else 1 + ) + rows = rows.sort_values(["ex_date", "asset", "_order"], kind="stable") + applied: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + # One marker per (asset, ex_date) event: a combined cash+split pair + # shares the key and both components are applied before it is + # recorded, so the second row is never skipped as a replay. + for (group_date, group_asset), group in rows.groupby( + ["ex_date", "asset"], sort=False, + ): + action_date = pd.Timestamp(group_date).normalize() + if cutoff is not None and action_date > cutoff: + continue + marker = ( + normalize_symbol(group_asset), + action_date.date().isoformat(), + ) + if marker in self._applied_corporate_actions: + continue + self._applied_corporate_actions.add(marker) + event = self._apply_action_group(marker, group) + if event is not None: + self._corporate_action_events.append(event) + applied.append(event) + return applied + + def _position_for_ticker(self, ticker: str) -> Position | None: + for key, position in self._positions.items(): + if normalize_symbol(key) == ticker: + return position + return None + + def _apply_action_group( + self, marker: tuple[str, str], group: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> dict[str, Any] | None: + """Apply all components sharing one ``(ticker, ex_date)`` marker.""" + ticker = marker[0] + position = self._position_for_ticker(ticker) + quantity_before = int(position.quantity) if position is not None else 0 + quantity_after = quantity_before + avg_cost_after = position.avg_cost if position is not None else 0.0 + cash_total = 0.0 + tax_total = 0.0 + cash_per_share_total = 0.0 + split_ratio_total = 1.0 + components: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] + timestamp = datetime.now().isoformat(timespec="seconds") + + # Cash first: a 送转+派息 dividend is declared per pre-split share. + for _, row in group.iterrows(): + if str(row["kind"]) != "cash": + continue + cash_per_share = float(row["cash_per_share"]) + if not (cash_per_share > 0): + continue + gross = quantity_before * cash_per_share + tax = gross * self._cash_dividend_tax_rate + net = gross - tax + cash_total += net + tax_total += tax + cash_per_share_total += cash_per_share + components.append({ + "kind": "cash", + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share, + "cash_delta": net, + "tax": tax, + }) + if quantity_before > 0: + if position is not None: + position.realized_pnl += net + if position.current_price > 0: + position.update_price( + max(position.current_price - cash_per_share, 0.0) + ) + self._cash_ledger.append({ + "date": marker[1], + "ticker": ticker, + "kind": "cash_dividend", + "quantity": quantity_before, + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share, + "tax": round(tax, 6), + "cash_delta": round(net, 6), + "description": ( + f"{quantity_before} shares x {cash_per_share}/share" + ), + "timestamp": timestamp, + }) + if quantity_before > 0 and cash_total: + # Cash is only tracked when the engine was given an initial + # balance or `enable_cash_tracking` was called; an untracked + # engine's `cash` must not silently become a dividend-only + # balance while its trades are not debited. + if self._cash_tracked: + self.cash += cash_total + + for _, row in group.iterrows(): + if str(row["kind"]) != "split": + continue + ratio = float(row["split_ratio"]) + if not (ratio > 0) or ratio == 1.0: + continue + split_ratio_total *= ratio + components.append({"kind": "split", "split_ratio": ratio}) + if position is not None: + new_quantity = int(round(position.quantity * ratio)) + position.quantity = new_quantity + position.available = min( + new_quantity, int(round(position.available * ratio)), + ) + if position.avg_cost > 0: + position.avg_cost = position.avg_cost / ratio + if position.current_price > 0: + position.update_price(position.current_price / ratio) + quantity_after = new_quantity + avg_cost_after = position.avg_cost + + if not components: + return None + kinds = sorted({component["kind"] for component in components}) + event: dict[str, Any] = { + "date": marker[1], + "ticker": ticker, + "kind": "+".join(kinds), + "quantity_before": quantity_before, + "quantity_after": quantity_after, + "cash_delta": cash_total, + "tax": tax_total, + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share_total, + "split_ratio": split_ratio_total, + "components": components, + "timestamp": timestamp, + } + if position is not None: + event["avg_cost_after"] = avg_cost_after + self._publish_corporate_action(event) + return event + + @staticmethod + def _publish_corporate_action(event: dict[str, Any]) -> None: + try: + get_event_bus().publish( + "corporate_action", event, source="execution_engine", + ) + except Exception: # monitoring must never break the book + pass + def reset(self) -> None: - """Clear all orders and positions.""" + """Clear all orders and positions, restoring the initial cash. + + Corporate-action markers are deliberately kept: they record external + events already reflected in the book, and replaying them after a reset + would double-apply the action. + """ self._orders.clear() self._positions.clear() self._executed_orders.clear() + self.cash = self._initial_cash + self._cash_ledger.clear() + self._corporate_action_events.clear() - def portfolio_snapshot(self, prices: dict[str, float]) -> dict: + def portfolio_snapshot( + self, prices: dict[str, float], price_basis: str = "raw", + ) -> dict: """Compute current portfolio snapshot. Args: - prices: {ticker: current_price} + prices: {ticker: current_price} in raw traded CNY. + price_basis: Basis of ``prices``; adjusted levels are refused. Returns: Dict with positions_value, n_positions, total_unrealized_pnl, - total_realized_pnl and total_pnl. - - Note: there is deliberately no `cash` key. Callers that need cash - track their own balance (see PortfolioOrchestrator.cash_available); - this engine only owns positions and fills. + total_realized_pnl, total_pnl, cash and equity. Realised P&L is + reported for closed positions too, so a round trip that ended flat + still shows its (negative) fees. ``cash``/``equity`` are only + meaningful when cash tracking is enabled; untracked engines report + the raw ledger (0.0) and callers should keep their own balance. """ + self.price_basis = require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis, context="ExecutionEngine snapshot marks", + ) total_upnl = 0.0 total_rpnl = 0.0 positions_value = 0.0 @@ -334,11 +741,12 @@ def portfolio_snapshot(self, prices: dict[str, float]) -> dict: for pos in self._positions.values(): price = prices.get(pos.ticker, 0.0) - if price > 0 and pos.quantity > 0: + if price > 0: pos.update_price(price) + total_rpnl += pos.realized_pnl + if price > 0 and pos.quantity > 0: positions_value += pos.market_value total_upnl += pos.unrealized_pnl - total_rpnl += pos.realized_pnl n_positions += 1 return { @@ -347,4 +755,6 @@ def portfolio_snapshot(self, prices: dict[str, float]) -> dict: "total_unrealized_pnl": round(total_upnl, 2), "total_realized_pnl": round(total_rpnl, 2), "total_pnl": round(total_upnl + total_rpnl, 2), + "cash": round(self.cash, 2), + "equity": round(self.cash + positions_value, 2), } diff --git a/execution/oms.py b/execution/oms.py index 95a3dc7..d6e858d 100644 --- a/execution/oms.py +++ b/execution/oms.py @@ -7,6 +7,8 @@ from __future__ import annotations import json +import math +import threading from datetime import datetime from pathlib import Path @@ -33,6 +35,37 @@ MIN_COMMISSION = 5.0 # Minimum 5 RMB per trade STAMP_TAX_RATE = 0.001 # 0.1% sell-side only MIN_LOT = 100 # 1 lot = 100 shares +#: Bound the in-memory books: a long-running API process accepted orders +#: forever and the blotter/snapshot lists were never pruned (the audit found +#: 1,000 unthrottled orders accepted with no growth limit). +MAX_ORDERS = 10_000 +MAX_SNAPSHOTS = 10_000 +MAX_FILLS_PER_ORDER = 1_000 +_PRUNE_RATIO = 0.9 + +#: Bases that describe a return-generating (adjusted) series. Cash, fills, +#: commission and position marks are CNY amounts and must use raw prices. +_ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASES = frozenset({"qfq", "hfq", "adjusted"}) + + +def require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis: str | None, *, context: str = "OMS marks/fills", +) -> str: + """Validate that price inputs are raw (traded CNY) levels. + + An explicitly adjusted basis is a hard error: dividing/multiplying shares + by an hfq level misstates cash and P&L (D15). Unlabeled callers keep the + historical behaviour and are reported as ``"unknown"``; they must pass + ``"raw"`` to make the guarantee explicit. + """ + text = str(price_basis or "").strip().lower() + if text in _ADJUSTED_PRICE_BASES: + raise ValueError( + f"{context} require raw (traded) CNY prices, got " + f"price_basis={text!r}. Adjusted levels are not tradeable; use a " + "broker/real-time quote or DataPipeline.get_raw_close()." + ) + return text or "unknown" class OrderManager: @@ -54,6 +87,13 @@ def __init__(self, initial_cash: float = 10_000_000.0): self.positions: dict[str, Position] = {} self.blotter: list[Order] = [] self.snapshots: list[PortfolioSnapshot] = [] + # `fill_order` validates remaining quantity and cash and then mutates + # both. Two concurrent fills could both pass validation: a 100-share + # order accepted 60 + 60 and cash went negative. + self._lock = threading.RLock() + #: Basis of the most recent fill/mark prices. Cash and share counts + #: are CNY-denominated, so this must stay raw (D15). + self.price_basis: str = "raw" # ── Order Lifecycle ── @@ -78,51 +118,90 @@ def create_order( # This checked `pos.quantity`, the full holding, so a buy and a sell in # the same session went through. `available` excludes today's purchases # and is released by `new_trading_day()`. - if side == "sell": - pos = self.positions.get(ticker) - available = pos.available if pos else 0 - if available < quantity: - held = pos.quantity if pos else 0 + # + # The check and the insert must be atomic: a fill from + # `smart_route_order`'s thread runs under the same RLock, so without + # it a sell could pass against `available` and interleave with a fill + # that empties the position. + with self._lock: + if side == "sell": + pos = self.positions.get(ticker) + available = pos.available if pos else 0 + if available < quantity: + held = pos.quantity if pos else 0 + raise ValueError( + f"Insufficient sellable position: {ticker} has {available} " + f"available today (holding {held}, of which " + f"{held - available} was bought today and is T+1 locked), " + f"trying to sell {quantity}" + ) + + # Get tenant from context if available + tenant_id = "default" + if TenantContext is not None: + try: + tenant_id = TenantContext.get_current().tenant_id + except Exception: + pass + + order = Order( + ticker=ticker, + tenant_id=tenant_id, + side=OrderSide(side), + order_type=OrderType(order_type), + quantity=quantity, + limit_price=limit_price, + status=OrderStatus.PENDING, + created_at=datetime.now().isoformat(), + strategy=strategy, + notes=notes, + ) + self._prune_orders() + if len(self.orders) >= MAX_ORDERS: raise ValueError( - f"Insufficient sellable position: {ticker} has {available} " - f"available today (holding {held}, of which " - f"{held - available} was bought today and is T+1 locked), " - f"trying to sell {quantity}" + "order book is at its active-order cap; fill or cancel " + "open orders before creating more" ) - - # Get tenant from context if available - tenant_id = "default" - if TenantContext is not None: - try: - tenant_id = TenantContext.get_current().tenant_id - except Exception: - pass - - order = Order( - ticker=ticker, - tenant_id=tenant_id, - side=OrderSide(side), - order_type=OrderType(order_type), - quantity=quantity, - limit_price=limit_price, - status=OrderStatus.PENDING, - created_at=datetime.now().isoformat(), - strategy=strategy, - notes=notes, - ) - self.orders[order.order_id] = order + self.orders[order.order_id] = order logger.info("Created order %s: %s %s x%d @ %s", order.order_id, side, ticker, quantity, limit_price or "market") return order + def _prune_orders(self) -> None: + """Drop the oldest completed orders once the book exceeds the cap. + + Active orders are never evicted (a client must still be able to fill + or cancel them). Called under ``self._lock``. + """ + if len(self.blotter) > MAX_ORDERS: + self.blotter = self.blotter[-int(MAX_ORDERS * _PRUNE_RATIO):] + if len(self.orders) < MAX_ORDERS: + return + target = int(MAX_ORDERS * _PRUNE_RATIO) + removable = [ + order_id + for order_id, order in self.orders.items() + if order.status in ( + OrderStatus.FILLED, + OrderStatus.CANCELLED, + OrderStatus.REJECTED, + OrderStatus.EXPIRED, + ) + ] + for order_id in removable[: max(0, len(self.orders) - target)]: + self.orders.pop(order_id, None) + if len(self.blotter) > target: + self.blotter = self.blotter[-target:] + def submit_order(self, order_id: str) -> Order: """Submit order (PENDING -> SUBMITTED).""" - order = self.orders[order_id] - if order.status != OrderStatus.PENDING: - raise ValueError(f"Cannot submit order in {order.status} state") - order.status = OrderStatus.SUBMITTED - order.submitted_at = datetime.now().isoformat() + with self._lock: + order = self.orders[order_id] + if order.status != OrderStatus.PENDING: + raise ValueError(f"Cannot submit order in {order.status} state") + order.status = OrderStatus.SUBMITTED + order.submitted_at = datetime.now().isoformat() logger.info("Submitted order %s", order_id) return order @@ -132,13 +211,64 @@ def fill_order( price: float, quantity: int | None = None, commission: float | None = None, + price_basis: str = "raw", ) -> Order: - """Process a fill (partial or full).""" + """Process a fill atomically. + + ``price`` must be a raw (traded) CNY price; an adjusted basis raises + before any cash/position mutation. + """ + basis = require_raw_price_basis(price_basis, context="OMS fills") + with self._lock: + order = self._fill_order(order_id, price, quantity, commission) + self.price_basis = basis + self._prune_orders() + return order + + def _fill_order( + self, + order_id: str, + price: float, + quantity: int | None = None, + commission: float | None = None, + ) -> Order: + """Process a fill (partial or full). + + Raises: + ValueError: if the order is complete, the price is not a finite + positive number, or the requested quantity is not a finite + positive number. Validation happens before any cash or + position mutation. + """ order = self.orders[order_id] if order.is_complete: raise ValueError(f"Order {order_id} is already {order.status}") - qty = quantity or order.remaining_quantity + # Validate before mutating anything. The HTTP layer refuses non-positive + # prices, but internal callers (SimulatedExchange, execution algorithms) + # go straight to the OMS; a NaN price used to produce a NaN commission + # and poison the whole book. + try: + price = float(price) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + raise ValueError(f"Invalid fill price: {price!r}") from None + if not math.isfinite(price) or price <= 0: + raise ValueError(f"Invalid fill price: {price!r}") + + # `quantity or remaining` treated an explicit 0 as "fill everything". + qty = order.remaining_quantity if quantity is None else quantity + try: + qty_valid = math.isfinite(qty) and qty > 0 + except TypeError: + qty_valid = False + if not qty_valid: + raise ValueError(f"Invalid fill quantity: {qty!r}") + if order.remaining_quantity <= 0: + raise ValueError(f"Order {order_id} has no remaining quantity") + if len(order.fills) >= MAX_FILLS_PER_ORDER: + raise ValueError( + f"Order {order_id} reached the {MAX_FILLS_PER_ORDER}-fill cap" + ) qty = min(qty, order.remaining_quantity) # Calculate costs @@ -146,6 +276,28 @@ def fill_order( commission = max(price * qty * COMMISSION_RATE, MIN_COMMISSION) tax = (price * qty * STAMP_TAX_RATE) if order.side == OrderSide.SELL else 0.0 + # Validate against the live book before mutating anything. Without + # these checks a buy could drive cash negative (the OMS then reports a + # lower equity than it can fund) and two sells could both pass + # creation against the same `available` shares, the second one raising + # KeyError after the first had already credited cash. + if order.side == OrderSide.SELL: + position = self.positions.get(order.ticker) + if position is None or position.available < qty: + held = position.quantity if position else 0 + available = position.available if position else 0 + raise ValueError( + f"Insufficient sellable position: {order.ticker} has " + f"{available} available today (holding {held}), " + f"trying to sell {qty}" + ) + else: + required = price * qty + commission + tax + if required > self.cash + 1e-9: + raise ValueError( + f"Insufficient cash: need {required:.2f}, have {self.cash:.2f}" + ) + # Calculate slippage vs arrival price arrival_price = order.limit_price or price slippage = abs(price - arrival_price) * qty @@ -182,11 +334,12 @@ def fill_order( def cancel_order(self, order_id: str, reason: str = "") -> Order: """Cancel an order.""" - order = self.orders[order_id] - if order.is_complete: - raise ValueError(f"Cannot cancel order in {order.status} state") - order.status = OrderStatus.CANCELLED - order.notes = f"{order.notes} | Cancelled: {reason}".strip(" | ") + with self._lock: + order = self.orders[order_id] + if order.is_complete: + raise ValueError(f"Cannot cancel order in {order.status} state") + order.status = OrderStatus.CANCELLED + order.notes = f"{order.notes} | Cancelled: {reason}".strip(" | ") logger.info("Cancelled order %s: %s", order_id, reason) return order @@ -213,6 +366,12 @@ def _process_fill(self, order: Order, fill: Fill): if total_qty > 0: pos.avg_cost = (pos.avg_cost * pos.quantity + cost) / total_qty pos.quantity = total_qty + # Mark to the fill price immediately. Without this, current_price + # and market_value stayed at zero until the next update_prices() + # call, so get_snapshot() right after a buy valued the position at + # nothing and reported the whole purchase as a loss. + pos.last_updated = fill.timestamp + pos.update_price(fill.price) # Today's purchase is T+1 locked: quantity grows, `available` does # not. `new_trading_day()` releases it. @@ -229,6 +388,9 @@ def _process_fill(self, order: Order, fill: Fill): # Remove position if fully sold if pos.quantity <= 0: del self.positions[ticker] + else: + pos.last_updated = fill.timestamp + pos.update_price(fill.price) def new_trading_day(self) -> None: """Roll the book: everything held overnight becomes sellable. @@ -238,99 +400,148 @@ def new_trading_day(self) -> None: `_trade_date_offset` field commented "For T+1 simulation" that nothing ever read, and no day-boundary method existed at all. """ - for pos in self.positions.values(): - pos.available = pos.quantity - - def update_prices(self, prices: dict[str, float]): - """Update all positions with current market prices.""" - for ticker, pos in self.positions.items(): - if ticker in prices: - pos.update_price(prices[ticker]) + with self._lock: + for pos in self.positions.values(): + pos.available = pos.quantity + + def update_prices( + self, prices: dict[str, float], price_basis: str = "raw", + ): + """Update all positions with current market prices (raw CNY only).""" + basis = require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis, context="OMS position marks", + ) + with self._lock: + self.price_basis = basis + for ticker, pos in self.positions.items(): + if ticker in prices: + pos.update_price(prices[ticker]) # ── Portfolio Analytics ── def get_snapshot(self) -> PortfolioSnapshot: - """Generate current portfolio snapshot.""" - positions_value = sum(p.market_value for p in self.positions.values()) - total_unrealized = sum(p.unrealized_pnl for p in self.positions.values()) - total_realized = sum(p.realized_pnl for p in self.positions.values()) + """Generate current portfolio snapshot. - total_value = self.cash + positions_value - daily_pnl = total_value - self.initial_cash + A position whose price has never been marked is valued at cost + (``avg_cost * quantity``) rather than zero, so an unmarked book does + not report the entire holding as a loss. + """ + def marked_value(pos: Position) -> float: + if pos.current_price > 0: + return pos.market_value + return pos.avg_cost * pos.quantity + + with self._lock: + positions_value = sum(marked_value(p) for p in self.positions.values()) + total_unrealized = sum(p.unrealized_pnl for p in self.positions.values()) + total_realized = sum(p.realized_pnl for p in self.positions.values()) + + total_value = self.cash + positions_value + daily_pnl = total_value - self.initial_cash + + # Calculate weights + for pos in self.positions.values(): + value = marked_value(pos) + pos.weight = value / total_value if total_value > 0 else 0 + + snapshot = PortfolioSnapshot( + timestamp=datetime.now().isoformat(), + total_value=round(total_value, 2), + cash=round(self.cash, 2), + positions_value=round(positions_value, 2), + n_positions=len(self.positions), + total_unrealized_pnl=round(total_unrealized, 2), + total_realized_pnl=round(total_realized, 2), + daily_pnl=round(daily_pnl, 2), + positions=list(self.positions.values()), + ) + self.snapshots.append(snapshot) + # `/api/oms/positions` and `/api/risk/status` call this on every poll; + # without a cap the list grew for the life of the process. + if len(self.snapshots) > 1_000: + self.snapshots = self.snapshots[-500:] + return snapshot - # Calculate weights - for pos in self.positions.values(): - pos.weight = pos.market_value / total_value if total_value > 0 else 0 + def get_order_blotter(self, tenant_id: str = "", limit: int = 500) -> list[dict]: + """Get orders as a list of dicts, optionally filtered by tenant. - snapshot = PortfolioSnapshot( - timestamp=datetime.now().isoformat(), - total_value=round(total_value, 2), - cash=round(self.cash, 2), - positions_value=round(positions_value, 2), - n_positions=len(self.positions), - total_unrealized_pnl=round(total_unrealized, 2), - total_realized_pnl=round(total_realized, 2), - daily_pnl=round(daily_pnl, 2), - positions=list(self.positions.values()), - ) - self.snapshots.append(snapshot) - return snapshot + This used to iterate `self.blotter`, which only receives orders once + they are complete (filled/cancelled/rejected). Pending, submitted and + partially filled orders were invisible to `/api/oms/blotter` even + though they existed and had already moved cash or positions. - def get_order_blotter(self, tenant_id: str = "") -> list[dict]: - """Get all orders as a list of dicts, optionally filtered by tenant.""" + `limit` bounds the response: the OMS book is never pruned, so the + blotter used to return every order ever created. + """ + try: + limit = max(0, int(limit)) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + limit = 500 result = [] - for order in self.blotter: - if tenant_id and order.tenant_id != tenant_id: - continue - result.append({ - "order_id": order.order_id, - "tenant_id": order.tenant_id, - "ticker": order.ticker, - "side": order.side.value, - "type": order.order_type.value, - "quantity": order.quantity, - "avg_fill_price": round(order.avg_fill_price, 2), - "filled_quantity": order.filled_quantity, - "commission": order.total_commission, - "tax": order.total_tax, - "slippage": order.total_slippage, - "status": order.status.value, - "created_at": order.created_at, - "filled_at": order.filled_at, - "strategy": order.strategy, - }) + with self._lock: + for order in sorted( + self.orders.values(), key=lambda o: o.created_at, reverse=True, + ): + if tenant_id and order.tenant_id != tenant_id: + continue + result.append({ + "order_id": order.order_id, + "tenant_id": order.tenant_id, + "ticker": order.ticker, + "side": order.side.value, + "type": order.order_type.value, + "quantity": order.quantity, + "remaining_quantity": max( + 0, order.quantity - order.filled_quantity, + ), + "avg_fill_price": round(order.avg_fill_price, 2), + "filled_quantity": order.filled_quantity, + "commission": order.total_commission, + "tax": order.total_tax, + "slippage": order.total_slippage, + "status": order.status.value, + "created_at": order.created_at, + "filled_at": order.filled_at, + "strategy": order.strategy, + }) + if len(result) >= limit: + break return result def get_trade_cost_analysis(self) -> dict: """Compute TCA metrics across all filled orders.""" - if not self.blotter: - return {} - - total_commission = sum(o.total_commission for o in self.blotter) - total_tax = sum(o.total_tax for o in self.blotter) - total_slippage = sum(o.total_slippage for o in self.blotter) - total_volume = sum( - o.avg_fill_price * o.filled_quantity for o in self.blotter - ) + with self._lock: + if not self.blotter: + return {} + + total_commission = sum(o.total_commission for o in self.blotter) + total_tax = sum(o.total_tax for o in self.blotter) + total_slippage = sum(o.total_slippage for o in self.blotter) + total_volume = sum( + o.avg_fill_price * o.filled_quantity for o in self.blotter + ) - buy_orders = [o for o in self.blotter if o.side == OrderSide.BUY] - sell_orders = [o for o in self.blotter if o.side == OrderSide.SELL] - - return { - "total_orders": len(self.blotter), - "buy_orders": len(buy_orders), - "sell_orders": len(sell_orders), - "total_commission": round(total_commission, 2), - "total_tax": round(total_tax, 2), - "total_slippage": round(total_slippage, 2), - "total_volume": round(total_volume, 2), - "cost_bps": round( - (total_commission + total_tax + total_slippage) / total_volume * 10000, 2 - ) if total_volume > 0 else 0, - "avg_order_size": round( - total_volume / len(self.blotter), 0 - ) if self.blotter else 0, - } + buy_orders = [o for o in self.blotter if o.side == OrderSide.BUY] + sell_orders = [o for o in self.blotter if o.side == OrderSide.SELL] + + return { + "total_orders": len(self.blotter), + "buy_orders": len(buy_orders), + "sell_orders": len(sell_orders), + "total_commission": round(total_commission, 2), + "total_tax": round(total_tax, 2), + "total_slippage": round(total_slippage, 2), + "total_volume": round(total_volume, 2), + "cost_bps": round( + (total_commission + total_tax + total_slippage) / total_volume * 10000, 2 + ) if total_volume > 0 else 0, + "avg_order_size": round( + total_volume / len(self.blotter), 0 + ) if self.blotter else 0, + # Fill prices are raw CNY levels; consumers can tell this + # apart from an adjusted research panel (D15). + "price_basis": self.price_basis, + } # ── Persistence ── @@ -378,8 +589,11 @@ def __init__(self): def set_order_manager(self, om: OrderManager): self.order_manager = om - def update_market(self, prices: dict[str, float]): - """Update market prices.""" + def update_market(self, prices: dict[str, float], price_basis: str = "raw"): + """Update market prices (raw traded CNY levels only).""" + require_raw_price_basis( + price_basis, context="SimulatedExchange marks/fills", + ) self.current_prices.update(prices) for ticker, price in prices.items(): if ticker not in self.price_history: @@ -401,25 +615,62 @@ def match_orders(self): order.notes = f"No market data for {order.ticker}" continue + # Never match against an unusable print: NaN/inf would poison the + # fill price (and every downstream P&L), <=0 is not a price. Skip + # the order rather than filling or rejecting it on bad data. + try: + market_price = float(price) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + logger.warning("Skipping %s: non-numeric market price %r", + order.ticker, price) + continue + if not math.isfinite(market_price) or market_price <= 0: + logger.warning("Skipping %s: invalid market price %r", + order.ticker, price) + continue + # Apply slippage model if order.order_type == OrderType.MARKET: # Market orders get ~5bps slippage slippage_factor = 1.0005 if order.side == OrderSide.BUY else 0.9995 - fill_price = round(price * slippage_factor, 2) + fill_price = round(market_price * slippage_factor, 2) elif order.order_type == OrderType.LIMIT: - if order.side == OrderSide.BUY and order.limit_price < price: + try: + limit_price = float(order.limit_price) + except (TypeError, ValueError): + logger.warning("Skipping %s: invalid limit price %r", + order.ticker, order.limit_price) + continue + if not math.isfinite(limit_price) or limit_price <= 0: + logger.warning("Skipping %s: invalid limit price %r", + order.ticker, order.limit_price) + continue + if order.side == OrderSide.BUY and limit_price < market_price: continue # Limit not reached - if order.side == OrderSide.SELL and order.limit_price > price: + if order.side == OrderSide.SELL and limit_price > market_price: continue - fill_price = order.limit_price + # When executable, the trade prints at the better of the two: + # a buy never pays above the market, a sell never receives less. + fill_price = ( + min(limit_price, market_price) + if order.side == OrderSide.BUY + else max(limit_price, market_price) + ) else: - fill_price = price + fill_price = market_price + + if not math.isfinite(fill_price) or fill_price <= 0: + logger.warning("Skipping %s: computed fill price %r", + order.ticker, fill_price) + continue self.order_manager.fill_order(order.order_id, fill_price) - def simulate_trading_day(self, prices: dict[str, float]): - """Simulate a full trading day.""" - self.update_market(prices) + def simulate_trading_day( + self, prices: dict[str, float], price_basis: str = "raw", + ): + """Simulate a full trading day (raw CNY prices only).""" + self.update_market(prices, price_basis=price_basis) if self.order_manager: - self.order_manager.update_prices(prices) + self.order_manager.update_prices(prices, price_basis=price_basis) self.match_orders() diff --git a/execution/paper_broker.py b/execution/paper_broker.py index 0d0867b..e2e5146 100644 --- a/execution/paper_broker.py +++ b/execution/paper_broker.py @@ -47,11 +47,15 @@ from enum import StrEnum import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +from quant_platform.data.providers.base import ( + empty_corporate_actions, + normalize_corporate_actions, +) from quant_platform.execution.order_book import ( BookOrder, OrderBook, - Trade, ) from quant_platform.execution.order_book import ( OrderType as BookOrderType, @@ -59,6 +63,7 @@ from quant_platform.execution.order_book import ( Side as BookSide, ) +from quant_platform.shared.symbols import normalize_symbol from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger logger = get_logger(__name__) @@ -146,6 +151,10 @@ class PaperBroker: stochastic partial fills, cancel failures, and L2 replay capabilities. """ + #: The dual-track TCA shadow keeps its own paper book, so splits and + #: cash dividends must be applied locally to that book on their ex-date. + supports_corporate_actions = True + def __init__( self, initial_cash: float = 10_000_000, @@ -153,6 +162,7 @@ def __init__( latency: LatencyModel | LatencyConfig = LatencyModel.LOW, partial_fill_rate: float = 0.10, cancel_fail_rate: float = 0.02, + cash_dividend_tax_rate: float = 0.0, ): self._cash = initial_cash self._initial_cash = initial_cash @@ -173,7 +183,11 @@ def __init__( self._books: dict[str, OrderBook] = {} self._pending_orders: dict[str, BookOrder] = {} - # Positions (existing from SimulatedBroker port) + # Comparison book: canonical symbol -> {quantity, avg_cost, + # current_price}. Kept from this broker's own fills so the TCA + # shadow survives corporate actions (a split scales quantity and + # divides cost; a dividend credits cash). It is a shadow ledger, not + # an accounting-grade book: fees are not modelled here. self._positions: dict[str, dict] = {} self._market_prices: dict[str, float] = {} self._today_bought: set[str] = set() @@ -193,6 +207,14 @@ def __init__( # RNG self._rng = np.random.default_rng() + # Corporate actions (comparison book only). Markers are keyed on + # ``(canonical_asset, ex_date)`` so a replayed day never double-applies. + self._cash_dividend_tax_rate = max(0.0, float(cash_dividend_tax_rate)) + self._corporate_actions: pd.DataFrame = empty_corporate_actions() + self._applied_corporate_actions: set[tuple[str, str]] = set() + self._corporate_action_events: list[dict] = [] + self._cash_ledger: list[dict] = [] + # ── Order Book Access ── def _get_book(self, symbol: str, tick_size: float = 0.01) -> OrderBook: @@ -217,8 +239,17 @@ def _sample_latency_ms(self, symbol: str) -> float: exchange = inst.exchange latency = self._latency.sample(exchange) self._latency_samples.append(latency) + if len(self._latency_samples) > 5_000: + self._latency_samples = self._latency_samples[-2_500:] return latency + def _record_fill(self, record: FillRecord) -> FillRecord: + """Append a fill record, keeping the in-memory list bounded.""" + self._fill_records.append(record) + if len(self._fill_records) > 5_000: + self._fill_records = self._fill_records[-2_500:] + return record + def _wait_latency(self, symbol: str, actual_wait: bool = False): """Simulate network/exchange latency. @@ -246,59 +277,49 @@ def _should_partial_fill(self, order_qty: int, available_qty: int) -> bool: prob = self._partial_fill_rate * min(size_ratio, 5.0) return self._rng.random() < prob - def _simulate_partial_fill(self, order: BookOrder, - trades: list[Trade]) -> list[Trade]: - """Simulate partial fill by randomly reducing filled quantity. - - Models the real-world phenomenon where large orders get split - across multiple fills over time. + def _available_liquidity(self, book: OrderBook, order: BookOrder) -> int: + """Quantity the book could immediately match against ``order``.""" + depth = book.get_depth_snapshot(levels=10_000) + levels = depth["asks"] if order.side == BookSide.BUY else depth["bids"] + + available = 0 + for level in levels: + price = level["price"] + if order.order_type == BookOrderType.LIMIT: + if order.side == BookSide.BUY and price > order.price: + break + if order.side == BookSide.SELL and price < order.price: + break + available += level["quantity"] + if available >= order.quantity: + return order.quantity + return available + + def _apply_partial_fill(self, book: OrderBook, order: BookOrder) -> bool: + """Size a partial fill *before* the order reaches the matching engine. + + The old `_simulate_partial_fill` let `OrderBook.add_order` match the + whole aggressor and then rewrote ``order.filled_quantity`` downwards. + The resting remainder kept the pre-rewrite quantity, so a later order + could trade against shares that had already been matched away, and + the book's trade volume disagreed with the broker's fill records. + + Shrinking the aggressor first keeps the order, the book and the + reported fills consistent. Returns True if the order was shrunk. """ - if not trades or len(trades) == 0: - return trades - - total_filled = sum(t.quantity for t in trades) - if total_filled <= order.quantity * 0.1: # Already <10% filled - return trades + available = self._available_liquidity(book, order) + if available <= 0: + return False + if not self._should_partial_fill(order.quantity, available): + return False - # Probability of partial fill - if not self._should_partial_fill(order.quantity, total_filled): - return trades - - # Fill 30-80% of what the LOB would have filled + # Fill 30-80% of what the LOB would have filled. fill_pct = self._rng.uniform(0.3, 0.8) - target_fill = max(1, int(total_filled * fill_pct)) - - # Scale down trades proportionally. - # - # This loop used to decrement `scale` by each trade's own share: - # - # scale -= new_qty / trade.quantity - # - # Since `new_qty` is `trade.quantity * scale`, the subtraction leaves - # `scale` at ~0 after the first iteration, so every later trade fell to - # the `max(1, ...)` floor. Trades of [1000, 1000, 1000, 500] with a 50% - # target came out as [500, 1, 1, 1] -- roughly one trade's worth, far - # below the 30-80% of available volume the method is supposed to fill. - scale = target_fill / total_filled - result = [] - for trade in trades: - new_qty = min(trade.quantity, max(1, int(trade.quantity * scale))) - result.append(Trade( - trade_id=trade.trade_id, - symbol=trade.symbol, - price=trade.price, - quantity=new_qty, - aggressor_side=trade.aggressor_side, - maker_order_id=trade.maker_order_id, - taker_order_id=trade.taker_order_id, - timestamp_ns=trade.timestamp_ns, - )) - - # Mark order as partial - order.filled_quantity = sum(t.quantity for t in result) + target = max(1, int(min(order.quantity, available) * fill_pct)) + order.quantity = target self._metrics.partial_fills += 1 - return result + return True # ── Cancel Failure Logic ── @@ -361,7 +382,15 @@ def replay_l2(self, symbol: str, current_time_ns: int) -> dict | None: return None def seed_book_from_snapshot(self, symbol: str, snapshot: dict): - """Seed an order book from an L2 snapshot.""" + """Seed an order book from an L2 snapshot. + + Seeded levels are passive: they rest and never aggress. Without this, + the ask ladder is added *into* the bid ladder through the matching + engine, so a locked snapshot (best bid == best ask) trades against + itself before any participant order arrives -- destroying depth and + fabricating a print. Incoming broker orders still fill against the + seeded levels. + """ book = OrderBook(symbol) bids = snapshot.get("bids", []) asks = snapshot.get("asks", []) @@ -376,6 +405,7 @@ def seed_book_from_snapshot(self, symbol: str, snapshot: dict): price=float(price), quantity=int(qty), source="l2_replay", + passive=True, ) book.add_order(order) @@ -388,6 +418,7 @@ def seed_book_from_snapshot(self, symbol: str, snapshot: dict): price=float(price), quantity=int(qty), source="l2_replay", + passive=True, ) book.add_order(order) @@ -447,7 +478,7 @@ def place_order(self, order) -> FillRecord: requested_qty=qty, filled_qty=0, fill_price=0, latency_ms=latency_ms, ) - self._fill_records.append(record) + self._record_fill(record) self._metrics.total_orders += 1 return record @@ -466,10 +497,12 @@ def place_order(self, order) -> FillRecord: source="paper_broker", ) - trades = book.add_order(book_order) + # Decide the partial fill before the order enters the matching engine. + # Rewriting filled_quantity after matching left the resting remainder + # larger than the quantity the book had actually matched away. + self._apply_partial_fill(book, book_order) - # Apply partial fill simulation - trades = self._simulate_partial_fill(book_order, trades) + trades = book.add_order(book_order) # Calculate results total_filled = sum(t.quantity for t in trades) @@ -478,6 +511,14 @@ def place_order(self, order) -> FillRecord: else: avg_price = price + # Keep the comparison book in step with this broker's own fills so a + # later split/dividend can be applied to the book the TCA shadow + # represents. + if total_filled > 0: + self._update_comparison_book( + symbol, side_str, total_filled, avg_price, + ) + # Exchange processing latency self._wait_latency(symbol) @@ -504,7 +545,7 @@ def place_order(self, order) -> FillRecord: partial=total_filled < qty and total_filled > 0, timestamp_ns=time.time_ns(), ) - self._fill_records.append(record) + self._record_fill(record) return record # ── Cancel Order ── @@ -543,7 +584,7 @@ def cancel_order(self, order_id: str) -> FillRecord: cancel_succeeded=False, timestamp_ns=time.time_ns(), ) - self._fill_records.append(record) + self._record_fill(record) return record # Perform cancel @@ -560,9 +601,231 @@ def cancel_order(self, order_id: str) -> FillRecord: cancel_succeeded=True, timestamp_ns=time.time_ns(), ) - self._fill_records.append(record) + self._record_fill(record) return record + # ── Comparison book / corporate actions ── + + def _update_comparison_book( + self, symbol: str, side: str, quantity: int, price: float, + ) -> None: + """Record a fill in the shadow position ledger (best effort).""" + asset = normalize_symbol(symbol) + position = self._positions.setdefault( + asset, {"quantity": 0, "avg_cost": 0.0, "current_price": 0.0}, + ) + if side == "buy": + previous_cost = position["avg_cost"] * position["quantity"] + position["quantity"] += int(quantity) + position["avg_cost"] = ( + (previous_cost + price * quantity) / position["quantity"] + if position["quantity"] > 0 else 0.0 + ) + self._cash -= price * quantity + else: + # The TCA shadow mirrors the primary book's sell sizes; a sell + # larger than what this shadow actually holds must not credit + # cash for shares it never bought (that minted fictitious cash + # and skewed the shadow's dividend entitlement). Credit only + # the held quantity; the excess fill is a shadow artifact. + held = max(0, int(position["quantity"])) + sold = min(int(quantity), held) + position["quantity"] = held - sold + self._cash += price * sold + position["current_price"] = float(price) + + def get_positions(self) -> dict[str, dict]: + """The comparison book: ``{canonical_symbol: {quantity, avg_cost, ...}}``.""" + return { + asset: dict(position) + for asset, position in self._positions.items() + } + + def get_cash(self) -> float: + return float(self._cash) + + def set_corporate_actions(self, actions) -> int: + """Replace the comparison book's pending corporate-action feed. + + ``actions`` follows the provider contract + ``(ex_date, asset, kind, cash_per_share, split_ratio)``. Nothing is + applied until :meth:`apply_corporate_actions` (or a dated + :meth:`new_trading_day`) runs. Returns the number of feed rows. + """ + frame = normalize_corporate_actions(actions) + self._corporate_actions = frame + return len(frame) + + def new_trading_day(self, date: str | None = None) -> list[dict]: + """Advance the comparison book's exchange day. + + ``date`` applies every action with ``ex_date <= date`` exactly once; + omitting it is a no-op (the shadow has no T+1 lock bookkeeping here). + """ + if date is None: + return [] + return self.apply_corporate_actions(ex_date=date) + + @staticmethod + def _naive_action_date(value) -> pd.Timestamp: + """Pin a feed/advance date to a naive Asia/Shanghai exchange day. + + Providers may stamp ex-dates with a UTC or exchange-local timezone; + the broker compares them with ``YYYY-MM-DD`` strings. Converting to + the exchange zone and dropping the tz keeps the comparison valid + (and prevents a naive/aware ``TypeError``). + """ + timestamp = pd.Timestamp(value) + if timestamp.tzinfo is not None: + timestamp = timestamp.tz_convert("Asia/Shanghai").tz_localize(None) + return timestamp.normalize() + + def apply_corporate_actions( + self, actions=None, ex_date: str | None = None, + ) -> list[dict]: + """Apply split/cash actions to the comparison book exactly once. + + A split scales quantity and divides the average cost and cached mark + (market value unchanged); a cash dividend credits + ``quantity * cash_per_share * (1 - tax)`` to cash and lowers the + cached mark so the shadow NAV stays continuous. Cash components run + before splits (a 送转+派息 dividend is declared per pre-split share). + """ + frame = ( + self._corporate_actions if actions is None + else normalize_corporate_actions(actions) + ) + if frame is None or frame.empty: + return [] + cutoff = ( + self._naive_action_date(ex_date) if ex_date is not None else None + ) + rows = frame.copy() + rows["_order"] = rows["kind"].map( + lambda kind: 0 if kind == "cash" else 1 + ) + rows = rows.sort_values(["ex_date", "asset", "_order"], kind="stable") + applied: list[dict] = [] + for (group_date, group_asset), group in rows.groupby( + ["ex_date", "asset"], sort=False, + ): + action_date = self._naive_action_date(group_date) + if cutoff is not None and action_date > cutoff: + continue + asset = normalize_symbol(group_asset) + marker = (asset, action_date.date().isoformat()) + if marker in self._applied_corporate_actions: + continue + event = self._apply_action_group(asset, marker, group) + self._applied_corporate_actions.add(marker) + if event is not None: + self._corporate_action_events.append(event) + applied.append(event) + return applied + + def _apply_action_group( + self, asset: str, marker: tuple[str, str], group: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> dict | None: + position = self._positions.get(asset) + quantity_before = int(position["quantity"]) if position else 0 + quantity_after = quantity_before + cash_total = 0.0 + tax_total = 0.0 + cash_per_share_total = 0.0 + split_ratio_total = 1.0 + components: list[dict] = [] + timestamp = time.time_ns() + + for _, row in group.iterrows(): + if str(row["kind"]) != "cash": + continue + cash_per_share = float(row["cash_per_share"]) + if not (cash_per_share > 0): + continue + gross = quantity_before * cash_per_share + tax = gross * self._cash_dividend_tax_rate + net = gross - tax + cash_total += net + tax_total += tax + cash_per_share_total += cash_per_share + components.append({ + "kind": "cash", + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share, + "cash_delta": net, + "tax": tax, + }) + if quantity_before > 0: + self._cash += net + if position and position["current_price"] > 0: + position["current_price"] = max( + position["current_price"] - cash_per_share, 0.0, + ) + self._cash_ledger.append({ + "date": marker[1], + "asset": asset, + "kind": "cash_dividend", + "quantity": quantity_before, + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share, + "tax": round(tax, 6), + "cash_delta": round(net, 6), + "description": ( + f"{quantity_before} shares x {cash_per_share}/share" + ), + "timestamp": timestamp, + }) + + for _, row in group.iterrows(): + if str(row["kind"]) != "split": + continue + ratio = float(row["split_ratio"]) + if not (ratio > 0) or ratio == 1.0: + continue + split_ratio_total *= ratio + components.append({"kind": "split", "split_ratio": ratio}) + if position is not None: + position["quantity"] = int( + round(int(position["quantity"]) * ratio) + ) + if position["avg_cost"] > 0: + position["avg_cost"] = position["avg_cost"] / ratio + if position["current_price"] > 0: + position["current_price"] = ( + position["current_price"] / ratio + ) + quantity_after = position["quantity"] + + if not components: + return None + # The resting LOB ladder was seeded at the pre-action price; a sell at + # the new level must not trade against a stale bid. The next cycle + # re-seeds it (LiveRunner seeds liquidity before every paper order). + for key in list(self._books): + if normalize_symbol(key) == asset: + del self._books[key] + + return { + "date": marker[1], + "asset": asset, + "kind": "+".join(sorted({c["kind"] for c in components})), + "quantity_before": quantity_before, + "quantity_after": quantity_after, + "cash_delta": cash_total, + "tax": tax_total, + "cash_per_share": cash_per_share_total, + "split_ratio": split_ratio_total, + "components": components, + "timestamp": timestamp, + } + + def get_applied_corporate_actions(self) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + return sorted(self._applied_corporate_actions) + + def get_corporate_action_events(self) -> list[dict]: + return [dict(event) for event in self._corporate_action_events] + + def get_cash_ledger(self) -> list[dict]: + return [dict(entry) for entry in self._cash_ledger] + # ── Metrics ── def get_metrics(self) -> PaperBrokerMetrics: diff --git a/execution/tca.py b/execution/tca.py index 33e35e2..cc7c66d 100644 --- a/execution/tca.py +++ b/execution/tca.py @@ -337,6 +337,131 @@ def analyze_order( participation_rate=round(participation, 6), ) + #: Accepted order-execution date columns, in priority order. + _DATE_COLUMNS = ("execution_date", "date", "trade_date") + + @staticmethod + def _execution_date(order: pd.Series) -> pd.Timestamp: + """Return the order's execution date. + + The date must be explicit: the previous batch path implicitly used the + final row of the price frame as "the close", which is a future + function. + """ + for column in TCAEngine._DATE_COLUMNS: + if column in order.index: + value = order[column] + if not pd.isna(value): + return pd.Timestamp(value) + raise ValueError( + "orders_df must provide an execution date column " + f"(one of {list(TCAEngine._DATE_COLUMNS)}) for every order" + ) + + @staticmethod + def _benchmark_from_prices( + prices_df: pd.DataFrame, + ticker: str, + execution_date: pd.Timestamp, + ) -> tuple[float, float]: + """Return ``(vwap, close)`` for ``ticker`` on ``execution_date``. + + Supported layouts: + + * Long: columns include ``vwap`` and ``close``, optionally a + ``ticker``/``code`` column selecting the instrument, and the date + comes from an ``execution_date``/``date``/``trade_date`` column or + the index. A frame without a ticker column is treated as a + single-instrument price series. + * Wide with 2-level ``MultiIndex`` columns: one level holds the + ``vwap``/``close`` fields, the other the tickers; the index is the + date. + + Raises: + ValueError: the layout is unsupported or the benchmark value is + missing/non-finite/non-positive. + KeyError: no row exists for ``ticker`` on ``execution_date``. + """ + frame = prices_df + columns = frame.columns + + if isinstance(columns, pd.MultiIndex): + if columns.nlevels != 2: + raise ValueError( + "prices_df MultiIndex columns must have exactly 2 levels " + "(field, ticker)" + ) + field_level = None + for level in range(columns.nlevels): + values = columns.get_level_values(level) + if "vwap" in values and "close" in values: + field_level = level + break + if field_level is None: + raise ValueError( + "prices_df MultiIndex columns must contain 'vwap' and " + "'close' on one level" + ) + ticker_level = 1 - field_level + if ticker not in columns.get_level_values(ticker_level): + raise KeyError( + f"No price data for ticker {ticker!r} in prices_df" + ) + sub = frame.xs(ticker, axis=1, level=ticker_level) + vwap_values = sub["vwap"] + close_values = sub["close"] + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(frame.index) + else: + if "vwap" not in columns or "close" not in columns: + raise ValueError( + "prices_df must contain 'vwap' and 'close' columns " + "(optionally with a 'ticker'/'code' column); got " + f"{list(columns)}" + ) + sub = frame + ticker_column = next( + (c for c in ("ticker", "code") if c in frame.columns), None, + ) + if ticker_column is not None: + sub = frame[frame[ticker_column] == ticker] + if sub.empty: + raise KeyError( + f"No price data for ticker {ticker!r} in prices_df" + ) + + date_column = next( + (c for c in TCAEngine._DATE_COLUMNS if c in sub.columns), None, + ) + if date_column is not None: + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(pd.to_datetime(sub[date_column])) + else: + dates = pd.DatetimeIndex(pd.to_datetime(sub.index)) + if len(dates) != len(sub): + raise ValueError( + f"Could not align price dates for ticker {ticker!r}" + ) + vwap_values = sub["vwap"] + close_values = sub["close"] + + target = pd.Timestamp(execution_date).normalize() + matches = dates.normalize() == target + if not matches.any(): + raise KeyError( + f"No price data for ticker {ticker!r} on {target.date()} " + "in prices_df" + ) + row = int(np.flatnonzero(matches)[0]) + vwap = float(vwap_values.iloc[row]) + close = float(close_values.iloc[row]) + + for name, value in (("vwap", vwap), ("close", close)): + if not np.isfinite(value) or value <= 0: + raise ValueError( + f"Invalid {name} for ticker {ticker!r} on " + f"{target.date()}: {value!r}" + ) + return vwap, close + def analyze_from_dataframe( self, orders_df: pd.DataFrame, @@ -345,14 +470,29 @@ def analyze_from_dataframe( ) -> list[TCAResult]: """Batch TCA analysis from DataFrames. + Every order must carry its execution date -- an ``execution_date`` + column (preferred) or a ``date``/``trade_date`` column. Benchmarks + come from the price row for that date only. The previous version used + the full-sample mean as VWAP and the last row as the close (a future + function), and silently returned zeros for the documented + ``[vwap, close, volume]`` layout. + Args: - orders_df: DataFrame with columns [order_id, ticker, side, quantity, - decision_price, arrival_price, arrival_time]. - fills_df: DataFrame with columns [order_id, price, quantity, timestamp]. - prices_df: DataFrame with columns [ticker, vwap, close, volume] indexed by date. + orders_df: columns [order_id, ticker, side, quantity, + decision_price, arrival_price, execution_date]. ``date`` and + ``trade_date`` are accepted aliases for ``execution_date``. + fills_df: columns [order_id, price, quantity, timestamp]. + prices_df: per-date benchmark prices; see + :meth:`_benchmark_from_prices` for the supported layouts. A + missing ticker/date/value raises instead of yielding 0. Returns: List of TCAResult. + + Raises: + ValueError: an order has no execution date, or a benchmark value + is missing/non-finite/non-positive. + KeyError: no price row exists for the ticker/date pair. """ results = [] @@ -366,13 +506,10 @@ def analyze_from_dataframe( fills_list = order_fills[["price", "quantity", "timestamp"]].to_dict("records") ticker = order["ticker"] - # Look up VWAP and close from prices - if ticker in prices_df.columns: - vwap = float(prices_df[ticker].mean()) - close = float(prices_df[ticker].iloc[-1]) - else: - vwap = 0.0 - close = 0.0 + execution_date = self._execution_date(order) + vwap, close = self._benchmark_from_prices( + prices_df, ticker, execution_date, + ) result = self.analyze_order( order_id=oid, diff --git a/factors/base.py b/factors/base.py index 9f24aef..8794698 100644 --- a/factors/base.py +++ b/factors/base.py @@ -15,6 +15,53 @@ import pandas as pd +#: Financial fields that are metadata, not factor inputs. Masking them would +#: turn publish timestamps into NaT for no benefit. +_FINANCIAL_METADATA_FIELDS = frozenset({"publish_date", "fiscal_period_end"}) + + +def mask_financials( + financials: pd.DataFrame | dict[str, pd.DataFrame] | None, + excluded: pd.DataFrame, +) -> pd.DataFrame | dict[str, pd.DataFrame] | None: + """Apply a (date x asset) exclusion mask to a financials panel. + + Accepts the shapes factors are called with: a dict of (date x asset) + panels, a single-level (date x asset) frame, or the pipeline's + multi-level (field, asset) frame produced by + ``financials.unstack("asset")``. + """ + if financials is None: + return None + + def _mask_one(panel: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame: + mask = excluded.reindex( + index=panel.index, columns=panel.columns, fill_value=False, + ) + return panel.mask(mask) + + if isinstance(financials, dict): + return {name: _mask_one(panel) for name, panel in financials.items()} + + if not isinstance(financials, pd.DataFrame): + return financials + + if isinstance(financials.columns, pd.MultiIndex): + fields = list(financials.columns.get_level_values(0).unique()) + blocks = [] + for field in fields: + block = financials[field] + blocks.append( + block + if field in _FINANCIAL_METADATA_FIELDS + else _mask_one(block) + ) + masked = pd.concat(blocks, axis=1, keys=fields) + masked.columns.names = financials.columns.names + return masked + + return _mask_one(financials) + class FactorCategory(Enum): TECHNICAL = "technical" @@ -78,11 +125,41 @@ def run( financials: pd.DataFrame | None = None, **kwargs, ) -> FactorResult: - """Compute and return a FactorResult.""" + """Compute and return a FactorResult. + + The research price panel blanks suspension days so that *returns* + never difference across a forward-fill. Level-based factors still + need a continuous price path: with blanks, one suspension NaN'd every + momentum value for the next 252 days (momentum_12m coverage fell to + 0/85 on real-shaped data). Factor levels therefore use the stale + forward-filled close; the IC target remains the masked return panel. + + The panel also carries the full asset-day eligibility mask (ST, + pre-listing, delisted and suspended rows) in + ``attrs["excluded_mask"]``. Those rows must stay blank: a blanket + `ffill()` used to fill them with a stale close, so excluded names + re-entered every cross-section. The same mask is applied to the + ``financials`` panel, because fundamental factors derive their values + from financial statements rather than prices and previously bypassed + the mask entirely (an ST name kept a live ROE/market-cap value while + its price factors were correctly NaN). + + Set ``fill_suspensions = False`` on a factor that genuinely needs the + blanks. + """ + excluded = prices.attrs.get("excluded_mask") + if getattr(self, "fill_suspensions", True): + price_panel = prices.ffill() + if excluded is not None: + price_panel = price_panel.mask(excluded) + else: + price_panel = prices if financials is not None: - values = self.compute(prices, financials=financials, **kwargs) + if excluded is not None: + financials = mask_financials(financials, excluded) + values = self.compute(price_panel, financials=financials, **kwargs) else: - values = self.compute(prices, **kwargs) + values = self.compute(price_panel, **kwargs) return FactorResult( name=self.name, category=self.category, diff --git a/factors/evaluation.py b/factors/evaluation.py index b3ef5a6..540f2db 100644 --- a/factors/evaluation.py +++ b/factors/evaluation.py @@ -17,11 +17,83 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +# ── Cross-section breadth rule ── +# A rank correlation computed from a handful of names is noise, but the old +# hardcoded floor of 30 silently disabled IC evaluation for smaller universes: +# a 30-stock watchlist with ~27 names trading on a given day produced an empty +# IC series for every factor, which downstream read as "no factor works" +# instead of "the cross-section was never evaluated". +MIN_IC_ASSETS = 10 +MAX_IC_ASSETS = 30 +# `ic_summary` refuses to report a mean/std from fewer observations than this. +MIN_IC_OBSERVATIONS = 10 + + +def min_assets_for_ic(n_assets_in_panel: int) -> int: + """Minimum valid assets a cross-section needs before it counts for IC. + + The rule is ``min(30, max(10, n_assets_in_panel // 2))``, where + ``n_assets_in_panel`` is the number of assets covered by that date's + intersected factor / forward-return panel (the row width, including names + whose factor value is NaN, e.g. suspended stocks). + + Using the panel width rather than the count of valid values keeps the rule + from being gamed by a thin slice of a wide universe: 12 live names in a + 500-asset panel still need 30 (``min(30, max(10, 250))``), while 27 live + names in a 30-asset panel only need 15 (``min(30, max(10, 15))``). Panels + narrower than 20 assets never clear the absolute floor of 10. + + The same rule is applied by the pandas fallbacks and by the numba kernel + (which receives the threshold as an argument via ``rank_ic_numba``). + """ + return min(MAX_IC_ASSETS, max(MIN_IC_ASSETS, int(n_assets_in_panel) // 2)) + + +def _factor_label(factor: pd.DataFrame, name: str | None) -> str: + """Best-effort factor name for diagnostics (frames have no `.name`).""" + label = name or factor.attrs.get("name") + return str(label) if label else "unnamed" + + +def _warn_if_insufficient_breadth( + factor: pd.DataFrame, + target: pd.DataFrame, + name: str | None = None, + min_assets: int | None = None, +) -> None: + """Log once why an IC series came back empty: the panel is too narrow. + + Called only when the result has no observations, so it never adds work to + the normal path. If the panel is wide enough, an empty series has another + cause (e.g. a constant cross-section) and no breadth warning is emitted. + """ + assets = factor.columns.intersection(target.columns) + if min_assets is None: + min_assets = min_assets_for_ic(len(assets)) + dates = factor.index.intersection(target.index) + if len(assets) == 0 or len(dates) == 0: + best_n = 0 + else: + valid = ( + factor.reindex(index=dates, columns=assets).notna() + & target.reindex(index=dates, columns=assets).notna() + ) + best_n = int(valid.sum(axis=1).max()) + if best_n >= min_assets: + return + logger.warning( + "factor %s: no cross-section has enough assets for IC " + "(best N=%d, required=%d)", + _factor_label(factor, name), best_n, min_assets, + ) + def rank_ic( factor: pd.DataFrame, forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, period: int = 1, + *, + name: str | None = None, ) -> pd.Series: """Compute Rank IC (Spearman correlation) between factor and forward returns. @@ -31,9 +103,11 @@ def rank_ic( factor: (date x asset) factor values. forward_returns: (date x asset) forward 1-day returns (return[t] = r_{t→t+1}). period: Return horizon (1 = next day, 5 = next week, 21 = next month). + name: Optional factor name used in diagnostic warnings. Returns: - Series of cross-sectional Rank ICs per date. + Series of cross-sectional Rank ICs per date. Cross-sections narrower + than :func:`min_assets_for_ic` are skipped. """ from quant_platform.utils.numba_accelerator import HAS_NUMBA, rank_ic_numba @@ -50,20 +124,34 @@ def rank_ic( if HAS_NUMBA: # rank_ic_numba intersects dates and columns itself; passing the raw # panels is what keeps the two axes from being correlated positionally. - return rank_ic_numba(factor, target) + ic = rank_ic_numba(factor, target) + if ic.empty: + _warn_if_insufficient_breadth(factor, target, name) + return ic # Pure Pandas fallback + assets = factor.columns.intersection(target.columns) + min_assets = min_assets_for_ic(len(assets)) ic_series = [] for date in factor.index.intersection(target.index): f = factor.loc[date] r = target.loc[date] common = f.dropna().index.intersection(r.dropna().index) - if len(common) < 30: + if len(common) < min_assets: continue ic = f[common].rank().corr(r[common].rank(), method="pearson") + # A constant cross-section (or constant target) has zero rank + # variance and yields NaN. The numba kernel skips those dates; the + # pandas fallback used to keep them as NaN entries, so the two paths + # returned series of different lengths. Drop NaN here as well. + if not np.isfinite(ic): + continue ic_series.append((date, ic)) if not ic_series: + _warn_if_insufficient_breadth( + factor, target, name, min_assets=min_assets + ) return pd.Series(dtype=float) dates, values = zip(*ic_series, strict=False) @@ -74,8 +162,14 @@ def pearson_ic( factor: pd.DataFrame, forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, period: int = 1, + *, + name: str | None = None, ) -> pd.Series: - """Compute Pearson IC between factor and forward returns.""" + """Compute Pearson IC between factor and forward returns. + + Cross-sections narrower than :func:`min_assets_for_ic` are skipped, the + same breadth rule as :func:`rank_ic`. + """ # forward_returns[t] is already r_{t→t+1} (shifted in pipeline). if period == 1: target = forward_returns @@ -84,17 +178,22 @@ def pearson_ic( lambda x: x.prod() - 1, raw=True ).shift(-(period - 1)) + assets = factor.columns.intersection(target.columns) + min_assets = min_assets_for_ic(len(assets)) ic_series = [] for date in factor.index.intersection(target.index): f = factor.loc[date] r = target.loc[date] common = f.dropna().index.intersection(r.dropna().index) - if len(common) < 30: + if len(common) < min_assets: continue ic = f[common].corr(r[common], method="pearson") ic_series.append((date, ic)) if not ic_series: + _warn_if_insufficient_breadth( + factor, target, name, min_assets=min_assets + ) return pd.Series(dtype=float) dates, values = zip(*ic_series, strict=False) @@ -109,10 +208,16 @@ def ic_summary(ic_series: pd.Series) -> dict: std_ic: Standard deviation of IC icir: Information Coefficient IR = mean / std ic_positive_ratio: Proportion of periods with positive IC + n_obs: Number of finite IC observations. Statistics stay NaN until + there are at least ``MIN_IC_OBSERVATIONS`` of them; a missing + observation is never replaced with IC=0. """ valid = ic_series.dropna() - if len(valid) < 10: - return {"mean_ic": np.nan, "std_ic": np.nan, "icir": np.nan, "ic_positive_ratio": np.nan} + if len(valid) < MIN_IC_OBSERVATIONS: + return { + "mean_ic": np.nan, "std_ic": np.nan, "icir": np.nan, + "ic_positive_ratio": np.nan, "n_obs": int(len(valid)), + } mean_ic = valid.mean() std_ic = valid.std() @@ -124,6 +229,7 @@ def ic_summary(ic_series: pd.Series) -> dict: "std_ic": std_ic, "icir": icir, "ic_positive_ratio": positive_ratio, + "n_obs": int(len(valid)), } @@ -168,10 +274,13 @@ def quantile_returns( if len(common) < n_quantiles * 5: continue - # Assign quantile labels (Q1 = highest factor, Q5 = lowest) + # Assign quantile labels (Q1 = highest factor, Q5 = lowest). + # `pd.qcut(..., labels=False)` numbers the lowest values 0, so the + # labels have to be reversed to match the documented orientation. labels = pd.qcut(f[common], n_quantiles, labels=False, duplicates="drop") if labels.nunique() < n_quantiles: continue + labels = n_quantiles - 1 - labels dates_list.append(date) for qi in range(n_quantiles): @@ -211,8 +320,14 @@ def factor_correlation(factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame]) -> pd.DataFrame: continue df = pd.DataFrame(data) + if df.empty: + continue + # Breadth is the panel width before dropping incomplete rows: a + # fully-valid corner of a wide universe must not pass the small-panel + # rule (see `min_assets_for_ic`). + n_assets = len(df) df = df.dropna() - if len(df) < 30: + if len(df) < min_assets_for_ic(n_assets): continue corr_stack.append(df.corr().values) @@ -240,7 +355,7 @@ def factor_turnover(factor: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series: prev = ranks.loc[dates[i - 1]] curr = ranks.loc[dates[i]] common = prev.dropna().index.intersection(curr.dropna().index) - if len(common) < 30: + if len(common) < min_assets_for_ic(len(prev)): continue rho = prev[common].corr(curr[common], method="spearman") turnover_series.append((dates[i], 1 - rho)) @@ -312,12 +427,14 @@ def to_alphalens( # Add group info if group_map is not None: - # group_map is Series(asset -> group) - result["group"] = result.index.get_level_values("asset").map(group_map) + # group_map is Series(asset -> group). The stacked index levels are + # positional (date, asset); `get_level_values("asset")` raised for the + # normal case where the input frames have unnamed columns. + result["group"] = result.index.get_level_values(-1).map(group_map) result = result.dropna(subset=["factor", "1D"]) # Alphalens also expects an asset_name column - result["asset_name"] = result.index.get_level_values("asset") + result["asset_name"] = result.index.get_level_values(-1) return result diff --git a/factors/expressions/ts_functions.py b/factors/expressions/ts_functions.py index d3f04d9..3b319fa 100644 --- a/factors/expressions/ts_functions.py +++ b/factors/expressions/ts_functions.py @@ -2,6 +2,11 @@ Each function takes a DataProxy as the first argument and returns a DataProxy. Operations are applied per-asset (grouped by column in the date×asset matrix). + +The rolling calls used to transpose the frame and pass ``axis=1`` because old +pandas only rolled along rows. pandas 3 removed the ``axis`` argument; rolling +along axis 0 of the date×asset frame is the same time-direction operation and +works on both 2.x and 3.x. """ from __future__ import annotations @@ -24,27 +29,27 @@ def ts_delta(feature: DataProxy, periods: int) -> DataProxy: def ts_mean(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling mean over window (per asset).""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).mean().T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).mean()) def ts_sum(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling sum over window (per asset).""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).sum().T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).sum()) def ts_std(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling standard deviation over window (per asset).""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).std(ddof=0).T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).std(ddof=0)) def ts_min(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling minimum over window (per asset).""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).min().T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).min()) def ts_max(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling maximum over window (per asset).""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).max().T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).max()) def ts_rank(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: @@ -52,15 +57,13 @@ def ts_rank(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: def _rank(s: np.ndarray) -> float: return float(scipy_stats.percentileofscore(s, s[-1]) / 100) - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _rank, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_rank, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) def ts_quantile(feature: DataProxy, window: int, q: float) -> DataProxy: """Rolling quantile over window.""" - return DataProxy(feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).quantile(q).T) + return DataProxy(feature.df.rolling(window).quantile(q)) def ts_argmax(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: @@ -68,9 +71,7 @@ def ts_argmax(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: def _argmax(s: np.ndarray) -> float: return float(np.argmax(s) + 1) - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _argmax, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_argmax, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) @@ -79,21 +80,19 @@ def ts_argmin(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: def _argmin(s: np.ndarray) -> float: return float(np.argmin(s) + 1) - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _argmin, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_argmin, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) def ts_corr(x: DataProxy, y: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling correlation between x and y over window (per asset).""" - result = x.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).corr(y.df.T).T + result = x.df.rolling(window).corr(y.df) return DataProxy(result) def ts_cov(x: DataProxy, y: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling covariance between x and y over window (per asset).""" - result = x.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).cov(y.df.T).T + result = x.df.rolling(window).cov(y.df) return DataProxy(result) @@ -111,9 +110,7 @@ def _slope(y: np.ndarray) -> float: with np.errstate(invalid="ignore"): return float(np.polyfit(x[:len(y_clean)], y_clean, 1)[0]) - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _slope, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_slope, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) @@ -135,18 +132,16 @@ def _rsq(y: np.ndarray) -> float: ss_tot = float(np.sum((y_clean - np.mean(y_clean)) ** 2)) return 1.0 - ss_res / ss_tot if ss_tot > 1e-10 else 0.0 - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _rsq, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_rsq, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) def ts_product(feature: DataProxy, window: int) -> DataProxy: """Rolling product over window (per asset).""" - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply( lambda x: np.prod(x) if len(x) == window else np.nan, raw=True, - ).T + ) return DataProxy(result) @@ -160,9 +155,7 @@ def _decay(s: np.ndarray) -> float: return np.nan return float(np.sum(s * weights)) - result = feature.df.T.rolling(window, axis=1).apply( - _decay, raw=True - ).T + result = feature.df.rolling(window).apply(_decay, raw=True) return DataProxy(result) diff --git a/factors/fundamental.py b/factors/fundamental.py index d347de2..ec4b197 100644 --- a/factors/fundamental.py +++ b/factors/fundamental.py @@ -58,7 +58,10 @@ def compute( if financials is None: raise ValueError("Financial data required for pb_ratio") pb = financials["pb_ratio"].copy() - # Invert: higher factor = cheaper stock (book/price) + # Invert for alpha direction (higher = cheaper). Non-positive book + # value is not a cheap stock: -pb would turn it into a positive score + # and rank it above every real value name. + pb = pb.where(pb > 0) return -pb @@ -80,8 +83,10 @@ def compute( if financials is None: raise ValueError("Financial data required for pe_ratio") pe = financials["pe_ratio"].copy() - # Handle negative earnings (PE is undefined) - pe = pe.clip(lower=1) # Cap at 1 to avoid extreme negative values + # Loss-makers have no meaningful PE. Clipping it to 1 made -1 the + # highest score in the cross-section, so they ranked as the cheapest + # stocks; leave them out instead. + pe = pe.where(pe > 0) return -pe diff --git a/factors/ic_monitor.py b/factors/ic_monitor.py index 6df68eb..605f115 100644 --- a/factors/ic_monitor.py +++ b/factors/ic_monitor.py @@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ from collections import deque from dataclasses import dataclass from datetime import datetime +from typing import Any import numpy as np import pandas as pd @@ -74,13 +75,39 @@ def __init__(self, config: ICMonitorConfig | None = None): self.factor_stats: dict[str, FactorICStats] = {} self.ic_history: dict[str, pd.Series] = {} + def _daily_ic_series( + self, + factor: pd.DataFrame, + forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, + ) -> pd.Series: + """Raw per-date cross-sectional Rank IC.""" + common_dates = factor.index.intersection(forward_returns.index) + daily_ic: dict[Any, float] = {} + for date in common_dates: + f_vals = factor.loc[date].dropna() + r_vals = forward_returns.loc[date].dropna() + common = f_vals.index.intersection(r_vals.index) + if len(common) > 10: + with warnings.catch_warnings(): + warnings.simplefilter("ignore") + ic = f_vals[common].corr(r_vals[common], method="spearman") + if not np.isnan(ic): + daily_ic[date] = float(ic) + return pd.Series(daily_ic, dtype=float).reindex(common_dates).dropna() + def compute_rolling_ic( self, factor: pd.DataFrame, forward_returns: pd.DataFrame, window: int = 63, ) -> pd.Series: - """Compute rolling Rank IC between factor and forward returns. + """Smoothed IC series for display and trend detection. + + This is a moving average of the raw daily ICs. It is deliberately not + the series on which ICIR and the positive ratio are computed: the + standard deviation of a 63-day moving average is much smaller than + the standard deviation of the daily ICs, which inflated ICIR roughly + sevenfold and reported 92% positive days for a 56% factor. Args: factor: (date x asset) factor values @@ -88,41 +115,23 @@ def compute_rolling_ic( window: rolling window size Returns: - Series of daily IC values + Series of smoothed IC values indexed by date """ - common_dates = factor.index.intersection(forward_returns.index) - if len(common_dates) < window: + daily_ic = self._daily_ic_series(factor, forward_returns) + if len(daily_ic) < window: return pd.Series(dtype=float) - ic_values = [] - ic_dates = [] - - for i in range(window, len(common_dates)): - date = common_dates[i] - window_dates = common_dates[i - window:i] - - # Get factor values and returns for the window - factor.loc[window_dates] - returns_window = forward_returns.loc[window_dates] - - # Compute cross-sectional rank IC for each date, then average - daily_ics = [] - for d in window_dates: - f_vals = factor.loc[d].dropna() - r_vals = returns_window.loc[d].dropna() - common = f_vals.index.intersection(r_vals.index) - if len(common) > 10: - with warnings.catch_warnings(): - warnings.simplefilter("ignore") - ic = f_vals[common].corr(r_vals[common], method="spearman") - if not np.isnan(ic): - daily_ics.append(ic) - - if daily_ics: - ic_values.append(float(np.mean(daily_ics))) - ic_dates.append(date) - - return pd.Series(ic_values, index=ic_dates, name="ic") + # ic[t] = mean of daily ICs over the `window` dates before t, i.e. the + # same window the old loop used (current date excluded). + ic_series = ( + daily_ic.rolling(window, min_periods=1) + .mean() + .shift(1) + .iloc[window:] + .dropna() + ) + ic_series.name = "ic" + return ic_series def compute_factor_stats( self, @@ -140,12 +149,19 @@ def compute_factor_stats( self.ic_history[factor_name] = ic_series - # Current IC (most recent) + # ICIR and the positive ratio describe the daily IC distribution, not + # the 63-day moving average displayed above. + daily_ic = self._daily_ic_series(factor, forward_returns) + raw_ic = daily_ic.reindex(ic_series.index).dropna() + if len(raw_ic) < self.config.min_observations: + raw_ic = daily_ic + + # Current IC (most recent smoothed value) current_ic = float(ic_series.iloc[-1]) - # Rolling statistics - mean_ic = float(ic_series.mean()) - std_ic = float(ic_series.std()) + # Dispersion statistics on raw daily ICs + mean_ic = float(raw_ic.mean()) + std_ic = float(raw_ic.std()) icir = mean_ic / std_ic if std_ic > 0 else 0 # IC trend (linear regression slope) @@ -175,11 +191,11 @@ def compute_factor_stats( else: half_life = 9999 # Not decaying - # IC positive ratio - positive_ratio = float((ic_series > 0).mean()) + # IC positive ratio on raw daily ICs + positive_ratio = float((raw_ic > 0).mean()) - # Last significant date - significant = ic_series[ic_series.abs() > self.config.significance_threshold] + # Last significant date (raw IC) + significant = raw_ic[raw_ic.abs() > self.config.significance_threshold] last_sig = str(significant.index[-1]) if len(significant) > 0 else "" # Alert level diff --git a/factors/network.py b/factors/network.py index 689997c..c83317b 100644 --- a/factors/network.py +++ b/factors/network.py @@ -75,6 +75,12 @@ def __init__( damping: float = 0.85, name: str | None = None, ): + super().__init__({ + "centrality_type": centrality_type, + "window": window, + "threshold": threshold, + "damping": damping, + }) self._centrality_type = CentralityType(centrality_type) self._window = window self._threshold = threshold diff --git a/factors/orthogonalization.py b/factors/orthogonalization.py index c41c955..0edde90 100644 --- a/factors/orthogonalization.py +++ b/factors/orthogonalization.py @@ -220,16 +220,19 @@ def _gram_schmidt( for date in dates: # Build matrix: rows = assets, cols = factors (in priority order) - vals = [] + # Rows must be the SAME assets for every factor: independent + # dropna() calls line up different assets positionally. + common = None for name in priority_order: - vals.append(factors[name].loc[date].dropna().values) - - # Find common length - min_len = min(len(v) for v in vals) + index = factors[name].loc[date].dropna().index + common = index if common is None else common.intersection(index) + min_len = len(common) if common is not None else 0 if min_len < n_factors + 1: continue - mat = np.column_stack([v[:min_len] for v in vals]) + mat = np.column_stack([ + factors[name].loc[date, common].values for name in priority_order + ]) # Standardize each column means = mat.mean(axis=0) @@ -252,24 +255,47 @@ def _gram_schmidt( col_std = orth[:, i].std() if col_std > 1e-10: orth[:, i] = orth[:, i] / col_std - assets = factors[name].loc[date].dropna().index[:min_len] + assets = common result[name].loc[date, assets] = orth[:, i] return result, transform + @staticmethod + def _fix_eigenvector_signs(eigenvectors: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: + """Fix each eigenvector's sign so the largest-|component| is positive. + + Eigenvectors are defined up to sign. Re-estimating a decomposition on + a slightly different window can flip a component's sign, silently + turning an "orthogonalized factor" into its negation. Pinning the + sign makes the output deterministic. + """ + if eigenvectors.size == 0: + return eigenvectors + columns = np.arange(eigenvectors.shape[1]) + anchor = np.abs(eigenvectors).argmax(axis=0) + signs = np.sign(eigenvectors[anchor, columns]) + signs[signs == 0] = 1.0 + return eigenvectors * signs + def _pca( self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], n_components: int | None, variance_threshold: float, ) -> tuple[dict[str, pd.DataFrame], np.ndarray, pd.Series, int]: - """PCA-based orthogonalization. + """PCA-based orthogonalization, estimated causally. - Decomposes factors into principal components, then reconstructs - using the top components that explain sufficient variance. + At each date t the covariance matrix is estimated over every valid + cross-section up to and including t, and decomposed once. Earlier + implementations averaged eigenvectors over the whole sample (future + data, and an average of arbitrary-sign vectors), so every date's + output depended on the future and the components were not even + guaranteed to be orthogonal. - This is order-independent and captures maximum information in - minimum dimensions. + The number of kept components is fixed from the first valid + cross-section: the output width must not change when later data + changes, or past rows of the result frame would silently depend on + the future. Args: factors: Aligned factor DataFrames. @@ -283,21 +309,31 @@ def _pca( names = list(factors.keys()) n_factors = len(names) - # Accumulate PCA across dates - all_components = None - all_eigenvalues = None + cov_sum = np.zeros((n_factors, n_factors)) count = 0 + n_comp: int | None = None + out_names: list[str] = [] + last_eigenvalues: np.ndarray | None = None + transform: np.ndarray | None = None + # (date, common assets, scores) for valid cross-sections; frames are + # assembled at the end because the component count is only known + # after the first valid date. + date_scores: list[tuple[pd.Timestamp, pd.Index, np.ndarray]] = [] for date in dates: - vals = [] + # Rows must be the SAME assets for every factor: independent + # dropna() calls line up different assets positionally. + common = None for name in names: - vals.append(factors[name].loc[date].dropna().values) - - min_len = min(len(v) for v in vals) + index = factors[name].loc[date].dropna().index + common = index if common is None else common.intersection(index) + min_len = len(common) if common is not None else 0 if min_len < n_factors + 1: continue - mat = np.column_stack([v[:min_len] for v in vals]) + mat = np.column_stack([ + factors[name].loc[date, common].values for name in names + ]) # Standardize means = mat.mean(axis=0) @@ -307,104 +343,89 @@ def _pca( # Covariance matrix cov = np.cov(mat_std, rowvar=False) - if cov.ndim == 0: + if cov.ndim == 0 or not np.isfinite(cov).all(): continue - # Eigendecomposition - eigenvalues, eigenvectors = np.linalg.eigh(cov) + # Expanding window: the estimate on date t uses only dates <= t. + cov_sum += cov + count += 1 + avg_cov = cov_sum / count + + # Eigendecomposition of the as-of-t covariance matrix. + eigenvalues, eigenvectors = np.linalg.eigh(avg_cov) # Sort descending idx = np.argsort(eigenvalues)[::-1] eigenvalues = eigenvalues[idx] eigenvectors = eigenvectors[:, idx] + eigenvectors = self._fix_eigenvector_signs(eigenvectors) + + if n_comp is None: + # Determine the number of components once, from the first + # valid cross-section (causal by construction). + total_var = eigenvalues.clip(min=0).sum() + if total_var <= 0: + n_comp = n_factors + elif n_components is not None: + n_comp = min(n_components, n_factors) + else: + cum_var = ( + np.cumsum(eigenvalues.clip(min=0)) / total_var + ) + n_comp = int(np.searchsorted(cum_var, variance_threshold)) + 1 + n_comp = max(1, min(n_comp, n_factors)) + out_names = names[:n_comp] + + # PCA scores: uncorrelated by construction (within the window the + # transform was estimated on). + scores = mat_std @ eigenvectors[:, :n_comp] - if all_eigenvalues is None: - all_eigenvalues = eigenvalues - all_components = eigenvectors - else: - all_eigenvalues += eigenvalues - all_components += eigenvectors - count += 1 + # Re-standardize each component for consistent scale + for i in range(n_comp): + col_std = scores[:, i].std() + if col_std > 1e-10: + scores[:, i] = scores[:, i] / col_std + + date_scores.append((date, common, scores)) + last_eigenvalues = eigenvalues + transform = eigenvectors[:, :n_comp] if count == 0: raise ValueError("No valid dates for PCA") - avg_eigenvalues = all_eigenvalues / count - avg_components = all_components / count + result = {name: factors[name].copy() for name in out_names} + for date, common, scores in date_scores: + for i, name in enumerate(out_names): + result[name].loc[date, common] = scores[:, i] - # Determine number of components - total_var = avg_eigenvalues.sum() - if total_var <= 0: - n_comp = n_factors - else: - cum_var = np.cumsum(avg_eigenvalues) / total_var - if n_components is not None: - n_comp = min(n_components, n_factors) - else: - n_comp = int(np.searchsorted(cum_var, variance_threshold)) + 1 - n_comp = max(1, min(n_comp, n_factors)) - - # Variance explained + # Variance explained, reported from the latest (largest) window. + total_var = float(last_eigenvalues.clip(min=0).sum()) var_explained = pd.Series( - avg_eigenvalues / total_var if total_var > 0 else np.zeros(n_factors), + last_eigenvalues / total_var if total_var > 0 else np.zeros(n_factors), index=[f"PC{i+1}" for i in range(n_factors)], name="variance_explained", ) - # Use top n_comp components - top_components = avg_components[:, :n_comp] - transform = top_components - - # Project factors into PCA space (scores are uncorrelated by construction) - # Map first n_comp original factor names to PCA components - out_names = names[:n_comp] - result = {name: factors[names[0]].copy() for name in out_names} - - for date in dates: - vals = [] - for name in names: - vals.append(factors[name].loc[date].dropna().values) - - min_len = min(len(v) for v in vals) - if min_len < n_factors + 1: - continue - - mat = np.column_stack([v[:min_len] for v in vals]) - means = mat.mean(axis=0) - stds = mat.std(axis=0) - stds[stds < 1e-10] = 1.0 - mat_std = (mat - means) / stds - - # PCA scores: uncorrelated by construction - scores = mat_std @ top_components # (assets × n_comp) - - # Re-standardize each component for consistent scale - assets = factors[names[0]].loc[date].dropna().index[:min_len] - for i, name in enumerate(out_names): - col = scores[:, i] - col_std = col.std() - if col_std > 1e-10: - col = col / col_std - result[name].loc[date, assets] = col - return result, transform, var_explained, n_comp def _symmetric( self, factors: dict[str, pd.DataFrame], ) -> tuple[dict[str, pd.DataFrame], np.ndarray]: - """Symmetric (canonical) orthogonalization. + """Symmetric (canonical) orthogonalization, estimated causally. Uses eigendecomposition of the factor correlation matrix to create orthogonal factors that are symmetric transforms of the originals. No factor is privileged. - This is the recommended method for multi-factor models where - no factor has a natural priority ordering. - The transform is: F_orth = F × V × D^{-1/2} × V' where V is the eigenvector matrix and D is the eigenvalue matrix. + The correlation matrix is the average of the daily cross-sectional + correlations observed up to and including the current date (an + expanding window). Estimating it on the full sample -- the old + behaviour -- let a date's output depend on future returns. + Args: factors: Aligned factor DataFrames. @@ -415,55 +436,46 @@ def _symmetric( names = list(factors.keys()) n_factors = len(names) - # Accumulate correlation matrix + result = {name: factors[name].copy() for name in names} + + # Expanding-window correlation estimate. corr_sum = np.zeros((n_factors, n_factors)) count = 0 + transform = np.eye(n_factors) for date in dates: - vals = [] + # Rows must be the SAME assets for every factor: independent + # dropna() calls line up different assets positionally. + common = None for name in names: - vals.append(factors[name].loc[date].dropna().values) - - min_len = min(len(v) for v in vals) + index = factors[name].loc[date].dropna().index + common = index if common is None else common.intersection(index) + min_len = len(common) if common is not None else 0 if min_len < n_factors + 1: continue - mat = np.column_stack([v[:min_len] for v in vals]) + mat = np.column_stack([ + factors[name].loc[date, common].values for name in names + ]) corr = np.corrcoef(mat, rowvar=False) + if not np.isfinite(corr).all(): + continue corr_sum += corr count += 1 + avg_corr = corr_sum / count + np.fill_diagonal(avg_corr, 1.0) - if count == 0: - raise ValueError("No valid dates for symmetric orthogonalization") + # Eigendecomposition of the as-of-date correlation matrix. + eigenvalues, eigenvectors = np.linalg.eigh(avg_corr) + eigenvectors = self._fix_eigenvector_signs(eigenvectors) - avg_corr = corr_sum / count - np.fill_diagonal(avg_corr, 1.0) - - # Eigendecomposition - eigenvalues, eigenvectors = np.linalg.eigh(avg_corr) + # Clip small eigenvalues to avoid numerical issues + eigenvalues = np.maximum(eigenvalues, 1e-8) - # Clip small eigenvalues to avoid numerical issues - eigenvalues = np.maximum(eigenvalues, 1e-8) - - # Transform: V × D^{-1/2} × V' - # This maps correlated factors to uncorrelated space - d_inv_sqrt = np.diag(1.0 / np.sqrt(eigenvalues)) - transform = eigenvectors @ d_inv_sqrt @ eigenvectors.T - - # Apply transformation - result = {} - for date in dates: - vals = [] - for name in names: - vals.append(factors[name].loc[date].dropna().values) - - min_len = min(len(v) for v in vals) - if min_len < n_factors + 1: - for name in names: - result.setdefault(name, factors[name].copy()) - continue - - mat = np.column_stack([v[:min_len] for v in vals]) + # Transform: V × D^{-1/2} × V' + # This maps correlated factors to uncorrelated space + d_inv_sqrt = np.diag(1.0 / np.sqrt(eigenvalues)) + transform = eigenvectors @ d_inv_sqrt @ eigenvectors.T # Standardize means = mat.mean(axis=0) @@ -476,13 +488,14 @@ def _symmetric( # Re-standardize for consistent scale for i, name in enumerate(names): - assets = factors[name].loc[date].dropna().index[:min_len] - result.setdefault(name, factors[name].copy()) col = orth[:, i] col_std = col.std() if col_std > 1e-10: col = col / col_std - result[name].loc[date, assets] = col + result[name].loc[date, common] = col + + if count == 0: + raise ValueError("No valid dates for symmetric orthogonalization") return result, transform diff --git a/factors/processing.py b/factors/processing.py index 529a2db..58c8b35 100644 --- a/factors/processing.py +++ b/factors/processing.py @@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ import numpy as np import pandas as pd -from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression from quant_platform.utils.logging import get_logger @@ -86,6 +85,7 @@ def neutralize( factor: pd.DataFrame, sector_map: pd.Series | None = None, market_cap: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + sector_panel: pd.DataFrame | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Cross-sectional sector and market-cap neutralization. @@ -94,10 +94,23 @@ def neutralize( - Sector: prevents unintended sector bets - Market cap: removes size factor exposure + ``sector_panel`` (date x asset) takes precedence over ``sector_map``: for + each date the row in effect on that date is used, so a historical + reclassification does not leak backwards into earlier cross-sections. + Assets the panel leaves unclassified on a date stay NaN (no sector + neutralization for them); a date with no classification at all skips + only the sector leg. Neither is filled in from the static map, because + the static map is a whole-sample (typically latest) classification and + doing so would reintroduce the look-ahead on providers whose industry + history starts after the sample does. ``sector_map`` is used only when no + panel is supplied at all; passing only ``sector_map`` reproduces the old + static behaviour. + Args: factor: (date x asset) post-standardized factor values. - sector_map: Series mapping asset -> sector name. + sector_map: Series mapping asset -> sector name (static). market_cap: (date x asset) market cap values. + sector_panel: (date x asset) point-in-time sector names. Returns: Neutralized factor values (residuals). @@ -110,46 +123,100 @@ def neutralize( if sector_map is not None and isinstance(sector_map, dict): sector_map = pd.Series(sector_map) - for date in factor.index: - row = result.loc[date].copy() - valid_mask = row.notna() - - if valid_mask.sum() < 20: - continue - - assets = factor.columns[valid_mask] - y = row[valid_mask].values - - # Build feature matrix X - features = [] - - if sector_map is not None: - asset_sectors = sector_map.reindex(assets) - sector_dummies = pd.get_dummies(asset_sectors, drop_first=True) - features.append(sector_dummies.values) - - if market_cap is not None: - mcap_row = market_cap.loc[date].reindex(assets) - mcap_log = np.log(mcap_row.clip(lower=1e8)) - features.append(mcap_log.values.reshape(-1, 1)) + columns = factor.columns + values = factor.to_numpy(dtype=float, copy=True) + + # Build the static sector design once, not once per date per factor. + # `neutralize` is called for every factor; rebuilding get_dummies for + # each date made this function ~62% of the whole factor stage. + dummy = None + sector_valid = np.ones(len(columns), dtype=bool) + if sector_map is not None: + sectors = sector_map.reindex(columns) + sector_valid = sectors.notna().to_numpy() + coded = pd.Categorical(sectors) + codes = coded.codes + n_categories = len(coded.categories) + if n_categories > 1: + dummy = np.zeros((len(columns), n_categories - 1)) + for position, code in enumerate(codes): + if code > 0: # first category is the baseline + dummy[position, code - 1] = 1.0 + else: + dummy = np.zeros((len(columns), 0)) + + # Point-in-time panel: encode every row once against a common category + # set. Code -1 marks "no classification on this date". A single-category + # panel is still meaningful: it degenerates to intercept-only (demeaning) + # and must override a static map that claims several sectors. + panel_codes = None + panel_n_categories = 0 + if sector_panel is not None: + panel = sector_panel.reindex(index=factor.index, columns=columns) + flat = panel.to_numpy(dtype=object).ravel() + codes_flat, uniques = pd.factorize(flat, sort=True) + panel_codes = codes_flat.reshape(panel.shape) + panel_n_categories = len(uniques) + has_panel_sectors = panel_codes is not None and panel_n_categories > 0 + + mcap = None + if market_cap is not None: + mcap = market_cap.reindex(index=factor.index, columns=columns).to_numpy(dtype=float) + mcap = np.log(np.clip(mcap, 1e8, None)) + + if dummy is None and mcap is None and not has_panel_sectors: + return result - if not features: + for row_index, _date in enumerate(factor.index): + y = values[row_index] + present = ~np.isnan(y) + if present.sum() < 20: continue - X = np.column_stack(features) if len(features) > 1 else features[0] - - # Handle any NaN in X - valid_rows = ~np.isnan(X).any(axis=1) - if valid_rows.sum() < 10: + asset_idx = np.flatnonzero(present) + features = [np.ones(len(asset_idx))] + valid = np.ones(len(asset_idx), dtype=bool) + + use_panel = has_panel_sectors + row_codes = None + if use_panel: + row_codes = panel_codes[row_index] + # A row the panel leaves entirely unclassified skips only the + # sector leg (mcap, if any, still applies). Falling back to the + # static map here would leak the whole-sample classification + # into dates that predate the provider's industry history. + if not (row_codes >= 0).any(): + use_panel = False + + if use_panel: + codes_selected = row_codes[asset_idx] + n_dummy = max(panel_n_categories - 1, 0) + row_dummy = np.zeros((len(asset_idx), n_dummy)) + nonbase = codes_selected > 0 # first category is the baseline + row_dummy[np.flatnonzero(nonbase), codes_selected[nonbase] - 1] = 1.0 + features.append(row_dummy) + valid &= codes_selected >= 0 + elif dummy is not None and sector_panel is None: + # Static map only when the caller supplied no panel at all. + features.append(dummy[asset_idx]) + valid &= sector_valid[asset_idx] + if mcap is not None: + features.append(mcap[row_index, asset_idx].reshape(-1, 1)) + X = np.column_stack(features) + + valid &= np.isfinite(X).all(axis=1) + if valid.sum() < 10: continue - model = LinearRegression() - model.fit(X[valid_rows], y[valid_rows]) - residuals = y - model.predict(X) - - result.loc[date, assets] = residuals + y_valid = y[asset_idx][valid] + # Same least-squares fit as sklearn's LinearRegression(intercept=True) + # on sector dummies + log market cap, without constructing 20k models. + beta, *_ = np.linalg.lstsq(X[valid], y_valid, rcond=None) + residuals = np.full(len(asset_idx), np.nan) + residuals[valid] = y_valid - X[valid] @ beta + values[row_index, asset_idx] = residuals - return result + return pd.DataFrame(values, index=factor.index, columns=columns) def process_factor( @@ -162,10 +229,21 @@ def process_factor( neutralize_enabled: bool = True, sector_map: pd.Series | None = None, market_cap: pd.DataFrame | None = None, + factor_name: str | None = None, + sector_panel: pd.DataFrame | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Full factor processing pipeline. Applies winsorization -> standardization -> neutralization in order. + + Args: + factor_name: Name of the factor. ``"log_market_cap"`` skips the + market-cap neutralization: regressing the size factor on size + removes the factor itself (residual std collapses to ~1% of the + input), leaving noise. Sector neutralization still applies. + sector_panel: (date x asset) point-in-time sector names. When given, + neutralization uses each date's own classification; otherwise + ``sector_map`` (static) is used, preserving the old signature. """ if isinstance(factor, pd.Series): factor = factor.to_frame('factor') @@ -178,6 +256,12 @@ def process_factor( result = standardize(result, standardize_method) if neutralize_enabled: - result = neutralize(result, sector_map, market_cap) + if factor_name == "log_market_cap": + # A size factor regressed on size is self-neutralization: the + # exposure we would remove is the signal. Keep sector only. + market_cap = None + result = neutralize( + result, sector_map, market_cap, sector_panel=sector_panel, + ) return result diff --git a/factors/store/__init__.py b/factors/store/__init__.py index e029a8b..7a73c9c 100644 --- a/factors/store/__init__.py +++ b/factors/store/__init__.py @@ -18,7 +18,7 @@ import time from contextlib import contextmanager from dataclasses import dataclass, field -from datetime import datetime +from datetime import UTC, datetime from pathlib import Path from typing import Any @@ -27,6 +27,16 @@ logger = get_logger(__name__) +def _utcnow_iso() -> str: + """Timezone-aware UTC timestamp, matching the research registry. + + The old naive ``datetime.now().isoformat()`` mixed local-time records + with the registry's UTC ones; cross-store ordering and joins could not be + compared. + """ + return datetime.now(UTC).isoformat() + + @dataclass class FactorDefinition: """Definition metadata for a factor.""" @@ -73,7 +83,14 @@ class FactorEvalRecord: coverage: float n_assets: int run_id: str = "" - timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) + timestamp: str = field(default_factory=_utcnow_iso) + # Lineage / lifecycle (audit R10): without these an evaluation row cannot + # be traced to a provider or invalidated later. + data_source: str = "" + adjust: str = "" + pit: bool | None = None + validity: str = "valid" + warnings: list[str] = field(default_factory=list) def to_dict(self) -> dict: return { @@ -86,6 +103,11 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: "n_assets": self.n_assets, "run_id": self.run_id, "timestamp": self.timestamp, + "data_source": self.data_source, + "adjust": self.adjust, + "pit": self.pit, + "validity": self.validity, + "warnings": list(self.warnings), } @@ -101,7 +123,12 @@ class FactorBacktestRecord: short_n: int turnover: float run_id: str = "" - timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) + timestamp: str = field(default_factory=_utcnow_iso) + data_source: str = "" + adjust: str = "" + pit: bool | None = None + validity: str = "valid" + warnings: list[str] = field(default_factory=list) def to_dict(self) -> dict: return { @@ -115,6 +142,11 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: "turnover": round(self.turnover, 6), "run_id": self.run_id, "timestamp": self.timestamp, + "data_source": self.data_source, + "adjust": self.adjust, + "pit": self.pit, + "validity": self.validity, + "warnings": list(self.warnings), } @@ -132,7 +164,12 @@ class WalkForwardFoldRecord: train_ic: float test_ic: float run_id: str = "" - timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) + timestamp: str = field(default_factory=_utcnow_iso) + data_source: str = "" + adjust: str = "" + pit: bool | None = None + validity: str = "valid" + warnings: list[str] = field(default_factory=list) def to_dict(self) -> dict: return { @@ -148,6 +185,11 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: "test_ic": round(self.test_ic, 6), "run_id": self.run_id, "timestamp": self.timestamp, + "data_source": self.data_source, + "adjust": self.adjust, + "pit": self.pit, + "validity": self.validity, + "warnings": list(self.warnings), } @@ -165,7 +207,12 @@ class FactorStabilityRecord: total_folds: int coverage: float run_id: str = "" - timestamp: str = field(default_factory=lambda: datetime.now().isoformat()) + timestamp: str = field(default_factory=_utcnow_iso) + data_source: str = "" + adjust: str = "" + pit: bool | None = None + validity: str = "valid" + warnings: list[str] = field(default_factory=list) def to_dict(self) -> dict: return { @@ -181,6 +228,11 @@ def to_dict(self) -> dict: "coverage": round(self.coverage, 4), "run_id": self.run_id, "timestamp": self.timestamp, + "data_source": self.data_source, + "adjust": self.adjust, + "pit": self.pit, + "validity": self.validity, + "warnings": list(self.warnings), } @@ -237,6 +289,12 @@ def _init_schema(self): value REAL, coverage REAL, version TEXT DEFAULT '1.0.0', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', + run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', created_at TEXT NOT NULL, UNIQUE(factor_name, symbol, signal_date, version) ); @@ -251,6 +309,11 @@ def _init_schema(self): coverage REAL, n_assets INTEGER DEFAULT 0, run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', timestamp TEXT NOT NULL ); @@ -265,6 +328,11 @@ def _init_schema(self): short_n INTEGER DEFAULT 0, turnover REAL DEFAULT 0, run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', timestamp TEXT NOT NULL ); @@ -281,6 +349,11 @@ def _init_schema(self): train_ic REAL, test_ic REAL, run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', timestamp TEXT NOT NULL ); @@ -297,6 +370,11 @@ def _init_schema(self): total_folds INTEGER DEFAULT 0, coverage REAL DEFAULT 0, run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', timestamp TEXT NOT NULL ); @@ -307,6 +385,11 @@ def _init_schema(self): rank_ic REAL, n_samples INTEGER DEFAULT 0, run_id TEXT DEFAULT '', + data_source TEXT DEFAULT '', + adjust TEXT DEFAULT '', + pit INTEGER, + validity TEXT DEFAULT 'valid', + warnings TEXT DEFAULT '[]', timestamp TEXT NOT NULL ); @@ -326,13 +409,49 @@ def _init_schema(self): CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_fsh_factor ON factor_stability_history(factor_name); CREATE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS idx_frh_factor ON factor_regime_history(factor_name, regime); """) + self._migrate_schema(conn) logger.info("FactorResearchStore initialized: %s", self._db_path) + #: Provenance/lifecycle columns added after the original schema. Existing + #: databases get them through ALTER TABLE; without the migration, writes + #: with lineage metadata fail on a store created by an older checkout. + _PROVENANCE_COLUMNS = { + "data_source": "TEXT DEFAULT ''", + "adjust": "TEXT DEFAULT ''", + "pit": "INTEGER", + "validity": "TEXT DEFAULT 'valid'", + "warnings": "TEXT DEFAULT '[]'", + } + _PROVENANCE_TABLES = ( + "factor_values", + "factor_evaluation_history", + "factor_backtest_history", + "factor_walk_forward_history", + "factor_stability_history", + "factor_regime_history", + ) + + def _migrate_schema(self, conn: sqlite3.Connection) -> None: + for table in self._PROVENANCE_TABLES: + cols = {r["name"] for r in conn.execute(f"PRAGMA table_info({table})")} + for name, ddl in self._PROVENANCE_COLUMNS.items(): + if name not in cols: + conn.execute(f"ALTER TABLE {table} ADD COLUMN {name} {ddl}") + # factor_values predates the run_id convention; history tables had it. + value_cols = { + r["name"] for r in conn.execute("PRAGMA table_info(factor_values)") + } + if "run_id" not in value_cols: + conn.execute( + "ALTER TABLE factor_values ADD COLUMN run_id TEXT DEFAULT ''" + ) + conn.commit() + # ── Factor Definitions ── def save_definition(self, definition: FactorDefinition) -> None: """Upsert a factor definition.""" - now = datetime.now().isoformat() + now = _utcnow_iso() with self._lock, self._conn() as conn: conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO factor_definitions @@ -402,6 +521,12 @@ def save_values( values: list[dict], coverage: float | None = None, version: str = "1.0.0", + data_source: str = "", + adjust: str = "", + pit: bool | None = None, + validity: str = "valid", + warnings: list[str] | None = None, + run_id: str = "", ) -> int: """Save factor values for multiple (symbol, signal_date) pairs. @@ -410,14 +535,23 @@ def save_values( values: List of dicts with 'symbol', 'signal_date', 'value' keys. coverage: Optional coverage fraction. version: Factor version. + data_source: Provider that produced the values (lineage). + adjust: Price adjustment basis, e.g. "hfq". + pit: Whether the universe/values are point-in-time; None = undeclared. + validity: valid | affected | invalidated | superseded. + warnings: Data-quality warnings stored with the rows. + run_id: Research run that produced these values. Returns: Number of rows inserted/updated. """ - now = datetime.now().isoformat() + now = _utcnow_iso() + warnings_json = json.dumps(list(warnings or [])) + pit_val = None if pit is None else int(bool(pit)) rows = [ (factor_name, v["symbol"], v["signal_date"], v.get("value"), - coverage, version, now) + coverage, version, data_source, adjust, pit_val, validity, + warnings_json, run_id, now) for v in values ] if not rows: @@ -426,11 +560,18 @@ def save_values( before = conn.total_changes conn.executemany(""" INSERT INTO factor_values - (factor_name, symbol, signal_date, value, coverage, version, created_at) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + (factor_name, symbol, signal_date, value, coverage, version, + data_source, adjust, pit, validity, warnings, run_id, created_at) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) ON CONFLICT(factor_name, symbol, signal_date, version) DO UPDATE SET value = excluded.value, - coverage = excluded.coverage + coverage = excluded.coverage, + data_source = excluded.data_source, + adjust = excluded.adjust, + pit = excluded.pit, + validity = excluded.validity, + warnings = excluded.warnings, + run_id = excluded.run_id """, rows) return conn.total_changes - before @@ -467,13 +608,17 @@ def save_evaluation(self, record: FactorEvalRecord) -> None: conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO factor_evaluation_history (factor_name, signal_date, rank_ic, pearson_ic, icir, - coverage, n_assets, run_id, timestamp) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + coverage, n_assets, run_id, data_source, adjust, pit, + validity, warnings, timestamp) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) """, ( record.factor_name, record.signal_date, record.rank_ic, record.pearson_ic, record.icir, record.coverage, record.n_assets, - record.run_id, record.timestamp, + record.run_id, record.data_source, record.adjust, + None if record.pit is None else int(bool(record.pit)), + record.validity, json.dumps(list(record.warnings)), + record.timestamp, )) def get_evaluation_history( @@ -491,13 +636,21 @@ def get_evaluation_history( return [FactorEvalRecord( factor_name=r["factor_name"], signal_date=r["signal_date"], - rank_ic=r["rank_ic"] or 0.0, - pearson_ic=r["pearson_ic"] or 0.0, - icir=r["icir"] or 0.0, - coverage=r["coverage"] or 0.0, + # NULL metrics (a run that could not measure them) stay + # missing on read: coercing to 0.0 made `factor-store history` + # print measured-looking zeros for unmeasured rows. + rank_ic=float(r["rank_ic"]) if r["rank_ic"] is not None else float("nan"), + pearson_ic=float(r["pearson_ic"]) if r["pearson_ic"] is not None else float("nan"), + icir=float(r["icir"]) if r["icir"] is not None else float("nan"), + coverage=float(r["coverage"]) if r["coverage"] is not None else float("nan"), n_assets=r["n_assets"] or 0, run_id=r["run_id"] if r["run_id"] else "", timestamp=r["timestamp"], + data_source=r["data_source"] or "", + adjust=r["adjust"] or "", + pit=bool(r["pit"]) if r["pit"] is not None else None, + validity=r["validity"] or "valid", + warnings=json.loads(r["warnings"] or "[]"), ) for r in rows] # ── Backtest History ── @@ -508,13 +661,17 @@ def save_backtest(self, record: FactorBacktestRecord) -> None: conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO factor_backtest_history (factor_name, signal_date, long_return, short_return, - spread_return, long_n, short_n, turnover, run_id, timestamp) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + spread_return, long_n, short_n, turnover, run_id, + data_source, adjust, pit, validity, warnings, timestamp) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) """, ( record.factor_name, record.signal_date, record.long_return, record.short_return, record.spread_return, record.long_n, record.short_n, record.turnover, - record.run_id, record.timestamp, + record.run_id, record.data_source, record.adjust, + None if record.pit is None else int(bool(record.pit)), + record.validity, json.dumps(list(record.warnings)), + record.timestamp, )) # ── Walk-Forward History ── @@ -526,15 +683,19 @@ def save_walk_forward_fold(self, record: WalkForwardFoldRecord) -> None: INSERT INTO factor_walk_forward_history (factor_name, fold_id, train_start, train_end, test_start, test_end, train_sharpe, test_sharpe, - train_ic, test_ic, run_id, timestamp) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + train_ic, test_ic, run_id, data_source, adjust, pit, + validity, warnings, timestamp) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) """, ( record.factor_name, record.fold_id, record.train_start, record.train_end, record.test_start, record.test_end, record.train_sharpe, record.test_sharpe, record.train_ic, record.test_ic, - record.run_id, record.timestamp, + record.run_id, record.data_source, record.adjust, + None if record.pit is None else int(bool(record.pit)), + record.validity, json.dumps(list(record.warnings)), + record.timestamp, )) def get_walk_forward_summary(self, factor_name: str) -> dict | None: @@ -575,15 +736,18 @@ def save_stability(self, record: FactorStabilityRecord) -> None: INSERT INTO factor_stability_history (factor_name, ic_mean, ic_std, icir, sharpe_mean, sharpe_std, sharpe_consistency, positive_folds, total_folds, coverage, - run_id, timestamp) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + run_id, data_source, adjust, pit, validity, warnings, timestamp) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) """, ( record.factor_name, record.ic_mean, record.ic_std, record.icir, record.sharpe_mean, record.sharpe_std, record.sharpe_consistency, record.positive_folds, record.total_folds, record.coverage, - record.run_id, record.timestamp, + record.run_id, record.data_source, record.adjust, + None if record.pit is None else int(bool(record.pit)), + record.validity, json.dumps(list(record.warnings)), + record.timestamp, )) # ── Regime History ── @@ -594,17 +758,27 @@ def save_regime_diagnostics( regime_ics: dict[str, float], regime_samples: dict[str, int], run_id: str = "", + data_source: str = "", + adjust: str = "", + pit: bool | None = None, + validity: str = "valid", + warnings: list[str] | None = None, ) -> None: """Save factor performance by market regime.""" - now = datetime.now().isoformat() + now = _utcnow_iso() + warnings_json = json.dumps(list(warnings or [])) + pit_val = None if pit is None else int(bool(pit)) with self._lock, self._conn() as conn: for regime, ic in regime_ics.items(): n = regime_samples.get(regime, 0) conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO factor_regime_history - (factor_name, regime, rank_ic, n_samples, run_id, timestamp) - VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) - """, (factor_name, regime, ic, n, run_id, now)) + (factor_name, regime, rank_ic, n_samples, run_id, + data_source, adjust, pit, validity, warnings, timestamp) + VALUES (?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?) + """, (factor_name, regime, ic, n, run_id, + data_source, adjust, pit_val, validity, + warnings_json, now)) def get_regime_diagnostics(self, factor_name: str) -> list[dict]: """Get regime diagnostics for a factor.""" @@ -612,7 +786,7 @@ def get_regime_diagnostics(self, factor_name: str) -> list[dict]: rows = conn.execute(""" SELECT * FROM factor_regime_history WHERE factor_name = ? - ORDER BY timestamp DESC LIMIT 50 + ORDER BY id DESC LIMIT 50 """, (factor_name,)).fetchall() return [dict(r) for r in rows] @@ -624,6 +798,11 @@ def get_factor_ranking(self) -> list[dict]: Health score blends: ICIR, coverage, stability, consistency. """ with self._conn() as conn: + # Latest row per factor joined on the monotonic id, not on the + # timestamp text: legacy rows carry naive local timestamps while + # new rows carry UTC offsets, so text ordering across the two + # formats is not chronological. Invalidated/superseded rows are + # excluded so a marked-wrong result cannot drive the ranking. rows = conn.execute(""" SELECT s.factor_name, @@ -637,28 +816,45 @@ def get_factor_ranking(self) -> list[dict]: s.timestamp as last_updated FROM factor_stability_history s INNER JOIN ( - SELECT factor_name, MAX(timestamp) as max_ts + SELECT factor_name, MAX(id) as max_id FROM factor_stability_history + WHERE COALESCE(validity, 'valid') = 'valid' GROUP BY factor_name ) latest ON s.factor_name = latest.factor_name - AND s.timestamp = latest.max_ts + AND s.id = latest.max_id ORDER BY s.icir DESC """).fetchall() ranked = [] for r in rows: d = dict(r) - icir_score = max(0, min(1, (abs(d["icir"] or 0) / 0.5))) + # Sign-aware ICIR score. abs(ICIR) promoted a factor with + # ICIR=-0.5 to 0.91 health while a correct-sign ICIR=+0.1 + # scored 0.59: wrong-direction factors ranked first. + icir_score = max(0.0, min(1.0, (d["icir"] or 0.0) / 0.5)) coverage_score = d["coverage"] or 0 - consistency_score = d["sharpe_consistency"] or 0 - health = (icir_score * 0.4 + coverage_score * 0.3 - + consistency_score * 0.3) + consistency = d["sharpe_consistency"] + if consistency is None: + # Stability was not computed for the latest run (no + # walk-forward folds). Scoring it as a measured zero made + # 30% of the health score structurally zero for factors + # that were simply never validated; renormalize the + # measured terms and surface the missing status instead. + health = (icir_score * 0.4 + coverage_score * 0.3) / 0.7 + consistency_out = None + stability_status = "unavailable" + else: + health = (icir_score * 0.4 + coverage_score * 0.3 + + float(consistency) * 0.3) + consistency_out = round(float(consistency), 4) + stability_status = "measured" ranked.append({ "factor_name": d["factor_name"], "ic_mean": round(d["ic_mean"], 6) if d["ic_mean"] else 0, "icir": round(d["icir"], 4) if d["icir"] else 0, "coverage": round(d["coverage"], 4) if d["coverage"] else 0, - "consistency": round(d["sharpe_consistency"], 4) if d["sharpe_consistency"] else 0, + "consistency": consistency_out, + "stability_status": stability_status, "health_score": round(health, 4), }) @@ -675,7 +871,7 @@ def save_version( params: dict | None = None, ) -> None: """Record a factor version.""" - now = datetime.now().isoformat() + now = _utcnow_iso() with self._lock, self._conn() as conn: conn.execute(""" INSERT INTO factor_versions diff --git a/factors/technical.py b/factors/technical.py index 93372e6..ac2b68f 100644 --- a/factors/technical.py +++ b/factors/technical.py @@ -55,23 +55,26 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: class Momentum1M(MomentumFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=21, name="momentum_1m", skip=0) + # The fixed-period subclasses must accept an override: the YAML ships + # `params: {period: 21}` for every factor, and `cls(**params)` otherwise + # raised TypeError and fell back to defaults silently. + def __init__(self, period: int = 21): + super().__init__(period=period, name="momentum_1m", skip=0) class Momentum3M(MomentumFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=63, name="momentum_3m", skip=0) + def __init__(self, period: int = 63): + super().__init__(period=period, name="momentum_3m", skip=0) class Momentum6M(MomentumFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=126, name="momentum_6m", skip=0) + def __init__(self, period: int = 126): + super().__init__(period=period, name="momentum_6m", skip=0) class Momentum12M(MomentumFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=252, name="momentum_12m", skip=21) + def __init__(self, period: int = 252): + super().__init__(period=period, name="momentum_12m", skip=21) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -98,13 +101,13 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: class Volatility20D(VolatilityFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=20, name="volatility_20d") + def __init__(self, period: int = 20): + super().__init__(period=period, name="volatility_20d") class Volatility60D(VolatilityFactor): - def __init__(self): - super().__init__(period=60, name="volatility_60d") + def __init__(self, period: int = 60): + super().__init__(period=period, name="volatility_60d") # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -177,10 +180,14 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: avg_loss = loss.rolling(self._period).mean() # Avoid division by zero - avg_loss = avg_loss.replace(0, np.nan) - - rs = avg_gain / avg_loss + rs = avg_gain / avg_loss.replace(0, np.nan) rsi = 100 - 100 / (1 + rs) + # A window with no losses is RSI 100, not undefined. Turning the + # denominator into NaN silently removed strongly trending stocks from + # the cross-section; flat windows are neutral (50). + rsi = rsi.mask((avg_loss == 0) & (avg_gain > 0), 100.0) + rsi = rsi.mask((avg_gain == 0) & (avg_loss > 0), 0.0) + rsi = rsi.mask((avg_gain == 0) & (avg_loss == 0), 50.0) return rsi @@ -311,10 +318,14 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: # Use price change magnitude as volume proxy volume = prices.pct_change(fill_method=None).abs() - # Return shock: z-score of k-period return vs history + # Return shock: z-score of k-period return vs history. + # Compounded return in log space: rolling.apply(lambda: prod) ran once + # per asset per window (~42 s at the default panel size). ret = prices.pct_change(fill_method=None) - k_ret = ret.rolling(self._ret_win).apply( - lambda x: (1 + x).prod() - 1 if len(x) == self._ret_win else 0 + k_ret = np.expm1( + np.log1p(ret).rolling( + self._ret_win, min_periods=self._ret_win, + ).sum() ) ref_mean = k_ret.rolling(self._ref_win).mean() ref_std = k_ret.rolling(self._ref_win).std().replace(0, np.nan) @@ -372,95 +383,119 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # K-Line candlestick features (inspired by Qlib Alpha158) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- +# +# D39: these factors used to fall back to an all-zero panel (or an unrelated +# pct_change) when the caller omitted OHLC inputs. The fallback silently fed +# constant zeros into the alpha combination whenever the enabled-factor list +# included candle factors but the caller passed only `turnover` (which is what +# main._compute_factors does today). Each factor now declares +# `required_inputs` and refuses to compute without them. main.py is another +# wave's file: the required wiring is to pass adjusted open/high/low into +# `_compute_factors` (see D:/tmp/_orchestrate/data_pipeline_fix_report.md). + + +def _require_inputs(factor_name: str, required: tuple[str, ...], kwargs) -> None: + """Raise an actionable error when a declared OHLC input is missing.""" + missing = [name for name in required if kwargs.get(name) is None] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + f"{factor_name} requires input(s) {list(required)} from the " + f"caller; missing {missing}. Pass adjusted open/high/low panels " + "(main._compute_factors currently passes only turnover). " + "Returning a placeholder panel would silently inject zeros or " + "noise into the alpha combination." + ) class CandleMidpointFactor(BaseFactor): """KMID: (close - open) / open. Positive = green candle.""" category = FactorCategory.TECHNICAL + required_inputs: tuple[str, ...] = ("open",) @property def name(self) -> str: return "kmid" def compute(self, prices, **kwargs): - o = kwargs.get("open") + _require_inputs(self.name, self.required_inputs, kwargs) + o = kwargs["open"] c = prices - if o is not None: - return (c - o) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) - return prices.pct_change(fill_method=None) + return (c - o) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) class CandleLengthFactor(BaseFactor): """KLEN: (high - low) / open. Intraday range.""" category = FactorCategory.TECHNICAL + required_inputs: tuple[str, ...] = ("open", "high", "low") @property def name(self) -> str: return "klen" def compute(self, prices, **kwargs): - h = kwargs.get("high") - l = kwargs.get("low") - o = kwargs.get("open") - if h is not None and l is not None and o is not None: - return (h - l) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) - return prices.pct_change(fill_method=None).abs() + _require_inputs(self.name, self.required_inputs, kwargs) + h = kwargs["high"] + l = kwargs["low"] + o = kwargs["open"] + return (h - l) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) class CandleUpperShadowFactor(BaseFactor): """KUP: (high - max(open, close)) / open. Upper wick.""" category = FactorCategory.TECHNICAL + required_inputs: tuple[str, ...] = ("open", "high") @property def name(self) -> str: return "kup" def compute(self, prices, **kwargs): - h = kwargs.get("high") - o = kwargs.get("open") + _require_inputs(self.name, self.required_inputs, kwargs) + h = kwargs["high"] + o = kwargs["open"] c = prices - if h is not None and o is not None: - import numpy as np - upper = h - np.maximum(o.values, c.values) - return pd.DataFrame(upper, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) - return pd.DataFrame(0.0, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) + upper = h - np.maximum(o.values, c.values) + return pd.DataFrame( + upper, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns + ) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) class CandleLowerShadowFactor(BaseFactor): """KLOW: (min(open, close) - low) / open. Lower wick.""" category = FactorCategory.TECHNICAL + required_inputs: tuple[str, ...] = ("open", "low") @property def name(self) -> str: return "klow" def compute(self, prices, **kwargs): - l = kwargs.get("low") - o = kwargs.get("open") + _require_inputs(self.name, self.required_inputs, kwargs) + l = kwargs["low"] + o = kwargs["open"] c = prices - if l is not None and o is not None: - import numpy as np - lower = np.minimum(o.values, c.values) - l.values if hasattr(l, 'values') else (np.minimum(o, c) - l) - return pd.DataFrame(lower, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) - return pd.DataFrame(0.0, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) + lower = np.minimum(o.values, c.values) - l.values + return pd.DataFrame( + lower, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns + ) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) class CandleSoftnessFactor(BaseFactor): """KSFT: (2*close - high - low) / open. Close in range.""" category = FactorCategory.TECHNICAL + required_inputs: tuple[str, ...] = ("open", "high", "low") @property def name(self) -> str: return "ksft" def compute(self, prices, **kwargs): - h = kwargs.get("high") - l = kwargs.get("low") - o = kwargs.get("open") + _require_inputs(self.name, self.required_inputs, kwargs) + h = kwargs["high"] + l = kwargs["low"] + o = kwargs["open"] c = prices - if h is not None and l is not None and o is not None: - return (2 * c - h - l) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) - return pd.DataFrame(0.0, index=prices.index, columns=prices.columns) + return (2 * c - h - l) / o.replace(0, float("nan")) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @@ -636,8 +671,10 @@ def compute(self, prices: pd.DataFrame, **kwargs) -> pd.DataFrame: ab = ret.mul(m, axis=0).rolling(self._window).sum() cov1 = (ab - a1.mul(b1, axis=0) / n) / (n - 1) - var0 = b2 / n - (b1 / n) ** 2 - beta = cov1.div(var0.where(var0 > 1e-20), axis=0) + # Match the sample covariance's ddof; the old population variance + # overstated the OLS beta by n/(n-1). + var1 = (b2 - b1.pow(2) / n) / (n - 1) + beta = cov1.div(var1.where(var1 > 1e-20), axis=0) sum_r = a1.sub(beta.mul(b1, axis=0)) sum_r2 = a2.sub(beta.mul(ab, axis=0) * 2.0).add(beta.pow(2).mul(b2, axis=0)) diff --git a/framework/__init__.py b/framework/__init__.py index 8f262fc..3814c4c 100644 --- a/framework/__init__.py +++ b/framework/__init__.py @@ -1,13 +1,14 @@ """Quant Research OS — Capability Layer package. -This package hosts the open, capability-layer contracts (Protocols) and their -Reference Implementations. Per CONSTITUTION.md Principle 4 (Protocol over -Implementation) and Principle 5 (Capability Layer Never Contains Alpha), this -package defines stable interfaces; concrete factor content / strategies stay -in the Knowledge (lab) and Production (prod) layers. +This package hosts the capability-layer Protocols under `framework.contracts`. +Concrete factor content and strategies live in `lab/`; there is no `prod/` +package in this repo (as of 2026-10). -The dependency direction is one-way: `framework` MUST NOT import `lab` or -`prod` (enforced by import-linter). See ARCHITECTURE.md. +The dependency direction is one-way: `framework` MUST NOT import `lab`. +This is enforced by tests/test_architecture/test_core_boundaries.py and +tests/test_architecture/test_boundaries.py, which run in CI via `pytest tests/` +(there is no import-linter). See docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md for design intent -- +that document is status-annotated as a proposal, not a guarantee (see #73). """ -__all__ = ["contracts", "registry", "trust"] +__all__ = ["contracts"] diff --git a/framework/contracts/__init__.py b/framework/contracts/__init__.py index ea000c0..be9fa94 100644 --- a/framework/contracts/__init__.py +++ b/framework/contracts/__init__.py @@ -1,9 +1,13 @@ """Capability-layer Protocols (stable interfaces). -Per docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md ADR-0004 (Protocol Before Plugin), interfaces are locked before -implementations. Each Protocol here has at least one Reference Implementation -(`ref/`); new providers MUST implement the existing Protocol rather than -spawning a parallel interface. +STATUS: PROPOSAL (2026-10) — six Protocols, zero conforming production +implementations. Nothing that runs research imports this package; it is an +interface proposal, not an enforced contract. See docs/DEAD_CODE_STATUS.md +and issue #70. + +Per docs/ARCHITECTURE_V2.md ADR-0004 (Protocol Before Plugin), interfaces are +locked before implementations. There is no `ref/` directory today: the +"reference implementation" claim this docstring used to make was false. Protocols defined: MarketDataProvider — daily OHLCV + fundamentals, with explicit adjust + bias flags diff --git a/frontend/package-lock.json b/frontend/package-lock.json index cca61cd..efc2acb 100644 --- a/frontend/package-lock.json +++ b/frontend/package-lock.json @@ -8,8 +8,8 @@ "name": "quant-platform-frontend", "version": "1.0.0", "dependencies": { - "axios": "^1.7.0", - "echarts": "^5.5.0", + "axios": "^1.20.0", + "echarts": "^6.1.0", "vue": "^3.5.0" }, "devDependencies": { @@ -982,6 +982,18 @@ "integrity": "sha512-5vR2QIlmaLG77Ygd4pMP6+SGQ5yox9VhtnbDWTy9DzMzdmeLxZ1QqxrywEZ9sa1AVubfIJyaCG3ytyWU81ufcQ==", "license": "MIT" }, + "node_modules/agent-base": { + "version": "6.0.2", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/agent-base/-/agent-base-6.0.2.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-RZNwNclF7+MS/8bDg70amg32dyeZGZxiDuQmZxKLAlQjr3jGyLx+4Kkk58UO7D2QdgFIQCovuSuZESne6RG6XQ==", + "license": "MIT", + "dependencies": { + "debug": "4" + }, + "engines": { + "node": ">= 6.0.0" + } + }, "node_modules/asynckit": { "version": "0.4.0", "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/asynckit/-/asynckit-0.4.0.tgz", @@ -989,13 +1001,14 @@ "license": "MIT" }, "node_modules/axios": { - "version": "1.16.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/axios/-/axios-1.16.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-6hp5CwvTPlN2A31g5dxnwAX0orzM7pmCRDLnZSX772mv8WDqICwFjowHuPs04Mc8deIld1+ejhtaMn5vp6b+1w==", + "version": "1.20.0", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/axios/-/axios-1.20.0.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-r8aOh8j9cGKpgQAqpzrUHnSIc6a59Y3Xf/cv8sy1DrHCkZHzQGEuoq1tARk6qSyDdtQGSDgpb9kFlruzPvrgwg==", "license": "MIT", "dependencies": { "follow-redirects": "^1.16.0", - "form-data": "^4.0.5", + "form-data": "^4.0.6", + "https-proxy-agent": "^5.0.1", "proxy-from-env": "^2.1.0" } }, @@ -1030,6 +1043,23 @@ "integrity": "sha512-z1HGKcYy2xA8AGQfwrn0PAy+PB7X/GSj3UVJW9qKyn43xWa+gl5nXmU4qqLMRzWVLFC8KusUX8T/0kCiOYpAIQ==", "license": "MIT" }, + "node_modules/debug": { + "version": "4.4.3", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/debug/-/debug-4.4.3.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-RGwwWnwQvkVfavKVt22FGLw+xYSdzARwm0ru6DhTVA3umU5hZc28V3kO4stgYryrTlLpuvgI9GiijltAjNbcqA==", + "license": "MIT", + "dependencies": { + "ms": "^2.1.3" + }, + "engines": { + "node": ">=6.0" + }, + "peerDependenciesMeta": { + "supports-color": { + "optional": true + } + } + }, "node_modules/delayed-stream": { "version": "1.0.0", "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/delayed-stream/-/delayed-stream-1.0.0.tgz", @@ -1054,13 +1084,13 @@ } }, "node_modules/echarts": { - "version": "5.6.0", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/echarts/-/echarts-5.6.0.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-oTbVTsXfKuEhxftHqL5xprgLoc0k7uScAwtryCgWF6hPYFLRwOUHiFmHGCBKP5NPFNkDVopOieyUqYGH8Fa3kA==", + "version": "6.1.0", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/echarts/-/echarts-6.1.0.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-q0yaFPggC9FUdsWH4blavRWFmxdrIodbkoKNAjJudAI6CA9gNPxHtV2RcZNEepZVlk4yvBYkOkbk6HIVpIyHZA==", "license": "Apache-2.0", "dependencies": { "tslib": "2.3.0", - "zrender": "5.6.1" + "zrender": "6.1.0" } }, "node_modules/entities": { @@ -1094,9 +1124,9 @@ } }, "node_modules/es-object-atoms": { - "version": "1.1.1", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/es-object-atoms/-/es-object-atoms-1.1.1.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-FGgH2h8zKNim9ljj7dankFPcICIK9Cp5bm+c2gQSYePhpaG5+esrLODihIorn+Pe6FGJzWhXQotPv73jTaldXA==", + "version": "1.1.2", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/es-object-atoms/-/es-object-atoms-1.1.2.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-HWcBoN6NileqtSydK2FqHbS/LoDd2pqrnQHLyJzBj4kOp/ky2MWMN694xOfkK8/SnUsW2DH7EfyVlydKCsm1Zw==", "license": "MIT", "dependencies": { "es-errors": "^1.3.0" @@ -1207,16 +1237,16 @@ } }, "node_modules/form-data": { - "version": "4.0.5", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/form-data/-/form-data-4.0.5.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-8RipRLol37bNs2bhoV67fiTEvdTrbMUYcFTiy3+wuuOnUog2QBHCZWXDRijWQfAkhBj2Uf5UnVaiWwA5vdd82w==", + "version": "4.0.6", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/form-data/-/form-data-4.0.6.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-vKatAh4SlVfgbv+YtmhiRjhEMJsYpsG1Y2rMQtR+SVSbytsSD1YGzDIcrAJmdFec88u/+VoGmxnl+80gL1tRCQ==", "license": "MIT", "dependencies": { "asynckit": "^0.4.0", "combined-stream": "^1.0.8", "es-set-tostringtag": "^2.1.0", - "hasown": "^2.0.2", - "mime-types": "^2.1.12" + "hasown": "^2.0.4", + "mime-types": "^2.1.35" }, "engines": { "node": ">= 6" @@ -1323,9 +1353,9 @@ } }, "node_modules/hasown": { - "version": "2.0.3", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/hasown/-/hasown-2.0.3.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-ej4AhfhfL2Q2zpMmLo7U1Uv9+PyhIZpgQLGT1F9miIGmiCJIoCgSmczFdrc97mWT4kVY72KA+WnnhJ5pghSvSg==", + "version": "2.0.4", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/hasown/-/hasown-2.0.4.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-T2UbfbBEF32wiepXIsMlTW9+dDYC6wMh/t/vYA4tuOMKqWz/n3vr1NFSxQiyP+zk2mXsoMA/i/7qV6LKut1t1A==", "license": "MIT", "dependencies": { "function-bind": "^1.1.2" @@ -1334,6 +1364,19 @@ "node": ">= 0.4" } }, + "node_modules/https-proxy-agent": { + "version": "5.0.1", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/https-proxy-agent/-/https-proxy-agent-5.0.1.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-dFcAjpTQFgoLMzC2VwU+C/CbS7uRL0lWmxDITmqm7C+7F0Odmj6s9l6alZc6AELXhrnggM2CeWSXHGOdX2YtwA==", + "license": "MIT", + "dependencies": { + "agent-base": "6", + "debug": "4" + }, + "engines": { + "node": ">= 6" + } + }, "node_modules/magic-string": { "version": "0.30.21", "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/magic-string/-/magic-string-0.30.21.tgz", @@ -1373,6 +1416,12 @@ "node": ">= 0.6" } }, + "node_modules/ms": { + "version": "2.1.3", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/ms/-/ms-2.1.3.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-6FlzubTLZG3J2a/NVCAleEhjzq5oxgHyaCU9yYXvcLsvoVaHJq/s5xXI6/XXP6tz7R9xAOtHnSO/tXtF3WRTlA==", + "license": "MIT" + }, "node_modules/nanoid": { "version": "3.3.12", "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/nanoid/-/nanoid-3.3.12.tgz", @@ -1621,9 +1670,9 @@ } }, "node_modules/zrender": { - "version": "5.6.1", - "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/zrender/-/zrender-5.6.1.tgz", - "integrity": "sha512-OFXkDJKcrlx5su2XbzJvj/34Q3m6PvyCZkVPHGYpcCJ52ek4U/ymZyfuV1nKE23AyBJ51E/6Yr0mhZ7xGTO4ag==", + "version": "6.1.0", + "resolved": "https://registry.npmmirror.com/zrender/-/zrender-6.1.0.tgz", + "integrity": "sha512-oEGMDB6pOP2S6OwRR4PdVv610zrjnA3Bh+JnSG12fYJlBKjtNAoEb5fSUoCOOINlH96I2fU38/A2UpRKs67xYQ==", "license": "BSD-3-Clause", "dependencies": { "tslib": "2.3.0" diff --git a/frontend/package.json b/frontend/package.json index 67d34d5..34f142b 100644 --- a/frontend/package.json +++ b/frontend/package.json @@ -9,9 +9,9 @@ "preview": "vite preview" }, "dependencies": { - "vue": "^3.5.0", - "echarts": "^5.5.0", - "axios": "^1.7.0" + "axios": "^1.20.0", + "echarts": "^6.1.0", + "vue": "^3.5.0" }, "devDependencies": { "@vitejs/plugin-vue": "^5.1.0", diff --git a/frontend/scripts/check-i18n.mjs b/frontend/scripts/check-i18n.mjs new file mode 100644 index 0000000..2ac9318 --- /dev/null +++ b/frontend/scripts/check-i18n.mjs @@ -0,0 +1,71 @@ +// Dependency-free i18n completeness check. +// +// Verifies that: +// 1. every `$t('dotted.key')` used under src/ resolves in BOTH locales, and +// 2. the zh-CN and en-US bundles have identical key sets. +// +// Run with: node scripts/check-i18n.mjs +// +// It exists because the old language toggle flipped to `en-US` while only a +// zh-CN bundle existed, so every label rendered its raw key (`nav.terminal`). + +import { readdirSync, readFileSync, statSync } from 'node:fs' +import { join, dirname } from 'node:path' +import { fileURLToPath } from 'node:url' +import zhCN from '../src/i18n/zh-CN.js' +import enUS from '../src/i18n/en-US.js' + +const here = dirname(fileURLToPath(import.meta.url)) +const srcRoot = join(here, '..', 'src') + +function flatten(bundle, prefix = '', out = {}) { + for (const [key, value] of Object.entries(bundle)) { + const path = prefix ? `${prefix}.${key}` : key + if (value && typeof value === 'object') flatten(value, path, out) + else out[path] = value + } + return out +} + +function walk(dir, files = []) { + for (const name of readdirSync(dir)) { + const full = join(dir, name) + if (statSync(full).isDirectory()) walk(full, files) + else if (name.endsWith('.vue') || name.endsWith('.js')) files.push(full) + } + return files +} + +const flatZh = flatten(zhCN) +const flatEn = flatten(enUS) +const problems = [] + +const used = new Set() +// Match both quote styles; a future `$t("key")` call site must not slip past +// the check. +const keyRe = /\$t\(\s*(['"])([^'"]+)\1/g +for (const file of walk(srcRoot)) { + const text = readFileSync(file, 'utf8') + let match + while ((match = keyRe.exec(text)) !== null) used.add(match[2]) +} + +for (const key of used) { + if (!(key in flatZh)) problems.push(`used but missing from zh-CN: ${key}`) + if (!(key in flatEn)) problems.push(`used but missing from en-US: ${key}`) +} + +for (const key of Object.keys(flatZh)) { + if (!(key in flatEn)) problems.push(`zh-CN key missing from en-US: ${key}`) +} +for (const key of Object.keys(flatEn)) { + if (!(key in flatZh)) problems.push(`en-US key missing from zh-CN: ${key}`) +} + +if (problems.length) { + console.error(`i18n check FAILED (${problems.length} problem(s)):`) + for (const problem of problems) console.error(` - ${problem}`) + process.exit(1) +} + +console.log(`i18n check OK: ${used.size} used keys, ${Object.keys(flatZh).length} keys per locale, both bundles complete.`) diff --git a/frontend/src/App.vue b/frontend/src/App.vue index d5c79d0..17050fc 100644 --- a/frontend/src/App.vue +++ b/frontend/src/App.vue @@ -66,10 +66,16 @@ - + - + @@ -92,10 +98,10 @@ import MonitorDashboard from './components/MonitorDashboard.vue' import StatusBar from './components/StatusBar.vue' import Toast from './components/Toast.vue' import CommandPalette from './components/CommandPalette.vue' -import { healthCheck } from './api/index.js' +import { healthCheck, getReadiness, getApiErrorMessage } from './api/index.js' import { useI18n } from './i18n/index.js' -const { $t } = useI18n() +const { $t, locale } = useI18n() const views = computed(() => [ { id: 'terminal', label: $t('nav.terminal') }, @@ -112,14 +118,19 @@ const views = computed(() => [ const currentView = ref('terminal') const backendAlive = ref(false) +// Dead-man switch state from /api/readiness (200 ready / 503 degraded). +const readiness = ref({ status: 'unknown', reason: '', checks: [] }) const toastRef = ref(null) const terminalRef = ref(null) +const paletteRef = ref(null) let healthTimer = null +let readinessTimer = null function onToast({ message, type }) { if (!toastRef.value) return if (type === 'success') toastRef.value.toastSuccess(message) else if (type === 'error') toastRef.value.toastError(message) + else if (type === 'warning') toastRef.value.toastWarning(message) else toastRef.value.toast(message) } @@ -140,7 +151,15 @@ function onDemo() { } function togglePalette() { - onRun() + // The header/status-bar palette buttons used to open the Run panel. + paletteRef.value?.toggle?.() +} + +function onPaletteOpen() { + // One shortcut, one overlay: Ctrl+K opens the palette only, so close the + // run panel first (it used to stay stacked underneath and reappear when the + // palette was dismissed). + if (terminalRef.value) terminalRef.value.showRunPanel = false } function onPaletteAction(action) { @@ -148,11 +167,20 @@ function onPaletteAction(action) { else if (action === 'demo') onDemo() else if (action === 'export') { if (terminalRef.value) terminalRef.value.exportResults() + } else if (action === 'refresh') { + window.location.reload() + } else if (action === 'health') { + checkHealth() + checkReadiness() + onToast({ + message: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '正在检查后端连接...' : 'Checking backend connectivity...', + type: 'info', + }) } } function onStatusBarAction(action) { - if (action === 'palette') onRun() + if (action === 'palette') togglePalette() } async function checkHealth() { @@ -164,13 +192,40 @@ async function checkHealth() { } } +async function checkReadiness() { + try { + const payload = await getReadiness() + const checks = Array.isArray(payload?.checks) ? payload.checks : [] + const failing = checks.filter(c => c && c.ok === false) + readiness.value = { + status: payload?.status === 'ready' ? 'ready' : 'degraded', + reason: failing + .map(c => `${c.name}: ${c.reason || 'failed'}`) + .join('; '), + checks, + timestamp: payload?.timestamp || '', + } + } catch (e) { + // The readiness probe itself failed (backend unreachable / timed out). + readiness.value = { + status: 'unknown', + reason: getApiErrorMessage(e, 'readiness unavailable'), + checks: [], + } + } +} + onMounted(() => { checkHealth() healthTimer = setInterval(checkHealth, 15000) + // Low-frequency: this is a dead-man switch, not a liveness ping. + checkReadiness() + readinessTimer = setInterval(checkReadiness, 30000) }) onBeforeUnmount(() => { if (healthTimer) clearInterval(healthTimer) + if (readinessTimer) clearInterval(readinessTimer) }) diff --git a/frontend/src/api/index.js b/frontend/src/api/index.js index 5e43f88..4f11e65 100644 --- a/frontend/src/api/index.js +++ b/frontend/src/api/index.js @@ -1,10 +1,194 @@ import axios from 'axios' +// ── Backend base URL ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────── +// +// Settings persists the operator's backend URL under `quant_settings.apiBase`. +// Historically nothing read it: axios was pinned to `/api` and the socket to +// `location.host`, so pointing the UI at another backend silently kept talking +// to the same origin. The base URL is now read at request time (so a change +// applies immediately, without a rebuild) and again on every WebSocket +// connect, and the saved value survives reloads via localStorage. + +const DEFAULT_API_BASE = '/api' +const SETTINGS_KEY = 'quant_settings' + +function readSavedSettings() { + try { + const raw = localStorage.getItem(SETTINGS_KEY) + if (!raw) return {} + const parsed = JSON.parse(raw) + return parsed && typeof parsed === 'object' ? parsed : {} + } catch (_) { + return {} + } +} + +// Accepts `http://host:8000`, `http://host:8000/api`, `/api`, `/proxy/api/` +// and returns a base URL whose path ends in `/api` and has no trailing slash. +// Anything unsafe or malformed (spaces, query strings, fragments, non-http(s) +// schemes, missing host, `http:/api`, `https:///api`) falls back to `/api`. +export function normalizeApiBase(value) { + let base = String(value == null ? '' : value).trim() + if (!base) return DEFAULT_API_BASE + if (!isValidApiBase(base)) return DEFAULT_API_BASE + base = base.replace(/\/+$/, '') + if (/\/api$/i.test(base)) base = base.replace(/\/api$/i, '/api') + else base = `${base}/api` + if (/^https?:\/\//i.test(base)) { + const url = new URL(base) + return `${url.protocol}//${url.host}${url.pathname.replace(/\/+$/, '')}` + } + return base +} + +export function isValidApiBase(value) { + const raw = String(value == null ? '' : value).trim() + if (!raw) return true + if (/[\s?#]/.test(raw)) return false + if (/^[a-z][a-z0-9+.-]*:/i.test(raw)) { + // Require an explicit http(s) authority with a non-empty host. This + // rejects `http:/api` (single slash) and `https:///api` (empty authority), + // which WHATWG URL otherwise parses as host `api`. + if (!/^https?:\/\//i.test(raw)) return false + if (/^https?:\/\/[/\\]/.test(raw)) return false + try { + const url = new URL(raw) + return !!url.hostname && (url.protocol === 'http:' || url.protocol === 'https:') + } catch (_) { + return false + } + } + // Relative paths must start with `/`; a bare `api` would otherwise silently + // become `/api/api`. Protocol-relative `//host` is rejected: it is neither a + // path the server can route nor an absolute URL the socket factory handles. + return raw.startsWith('/') && !raw.startsWith('//') +} + +export function getApiBase() { + const settings = readSavedSettings() + return normalizeApiBase(settings.apiBase) +} + +// Derive the status-stream URL from the same base. An absolute backend URL +// keeps its host (so a UI served from another origin can reach the API), and a +// relative base stays on the page's origin. +export function getWsUrl() { + const base = getApiBase() + if (/^[a-z][a-z0-9+.-]*:\/\//i.test(base)) { + try { + const url = new URL(base) + const proto = url.protocol === 'https:' ? 'wss:' : 'ws:' + const path = url.pathname.replace(/\/+$/, '') + return `${proto}//${url.host}${path}/ws` + } catch (_) { + // fall through to the relative form + } + } + const proto = location.protocol === 'https:' ? 'wss:' : 'ws:' + // A server bound to 127.0.0.1 does not accept the browser's IPv6-first + // `localhost` resolution for WebSockets (HTTP falls back, WS does not), so + // the shipped local UI would loop on reconnect. Prefer the IPv4 loopback + // host when the page itself was opened via localhost. + const host = location.hostname === 'localhost' + ? `127.0.0.1${location.port ? `:${location.port}` : ''}` + : location.host + return `${proto}//${host}${base.replace(/\/+$/, '')}/ws` +} + const api = axios.create({ - baseURL: '/api', + baseURL: getApiBase(), timeout: 300000, // 5 min for long pipeline runs }) +// The analysis/monitor GETs build a heavy research context on first use; if +// the two analytics workers are busy the backend answers 429 + Retry-After. +// Retry those safe reads twice instead of leaving a panel blank until reload. +api.interceptors.response.use(undefined, async (error) => { + const cfg = error && error.config + const status = error && error.response && error.response.status + const method = String((cfg && cfg.method) || 'get').toLowerCase() + if (status === 429 && cfg && method === 'get') { + cfg.__rateRetries = (cfg.__rateRetries || 0) + 1 + if (cfg.__rateRetries <= 4) { + const retryAfter = Number( + (error.response.headers && error.response.headers['retry-after']) || 5, + ) + // A first context build can hold an analytics slot for ~a minute; + // back off exponentially instead of burning every retry in 15 s. + const waitMs = Math.min( + 20000, + Math.max(1000, retryAfter * 1000 * (2 ** (cfg.__rateRetries - 1))), + ) + await new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, waitMs)) + return api.request(cfg) + } + } + return Promise.reject(error) +}) + +// Optional bearer token, mirroring the backend's QUANT_API_TOKEN mode. +// +// Read at request time from localStorage, NOT from import.meta.env: a +// VITE_-prefixed value is inlined into the public bundle, so every visitor +// to the served UI would receive the long-lived token. Users set it in +// Settings (stored only in this browser). +export function getApiToken() { + try { + return localStorage.getItem('quant_api_token') || '' + } catch (_) { + return '' + } +} + +api.interceptors.request.use((config) => { + // Re-read on every request so a URL saved in Settings takes effect + // immediately (and after a reload, when the instance is rebuilt). + config.baseURL = getApiBase() + // Trim consistently with the WebSocket path: a token pasted with trailing + // whitespace must not authenticate on the socket but fail on REST. + const token = getApiToken().trim() + if (token) { + config.headers = config.headers || {} + config.headers.Authorization = `Bearer ${token}` + } + return config +}) + +// Turn the backend's two error shapes into one readable string. FastAPI +// `HTTPException` sends `detail` as a string, but `RequestValidationError` +// sends a list of `{loc, msg}` objects; components that interpolated `detail` +// printed `[object Object]`. +export function getApiErrorMessage(error, fallback = 'Request failed') { + const data = error?.response?.data + let detail = data?.detail + if (Array.isArray(detail)) { + detail = detail + .map((item) => { + if (item == null) return '' + if (typeof item === 'string') return item + const loc = Array.isArray(item.loc) + ? item.loc.filter((part) => part !== 'body').join('.') + : '' + const msg = item.msg || item.message || JSON.stringify(item) + return loc ? `${loc}: ${msg}` : msg + }) + .filter(Boolean) + .join('; ') + } + if (typeof detail === 'string' && detail.trim()) return detail.trim() + if (typeof data?.message === 'string' && data.message.trim()) return data.message.trim() + if (typeof data?.error === 'string' && data.error.trim()) return data.error.trim() + return error?.message || fallback +} + +export function importPortfolioHoldings(data) { + return api.post('/portfolio/import', { data }).then(r => r.data) +} + +export function getLivePortfolio() { + return api.get('/portfolio/live').then(r => r.data) +} + export function getConfig() { return api.get('/config').then(r => r.data) } @@ -42,7 +226,15 @@ export function getRuns() { } export function healthCheck() { - return api.get('/health').then(r => r.data) + return api.get('/health', { timeout: 10000 }).then(r => r.data) +} + +// Dead-man switch. Returns the 503 payload instead of throwing so callers can +// render the per-check reasons; transport failures still reject. +export function getReadiness() { + return api + .get('/readiness', { timeout: 10000, validateStatus: s => s === 200 || s === 503 }) + .then(r => r.data) } // OMS endpoints @@ -200,6 +392,29 @@ export function getMarketSnapshot() { return api.get('/market/snapshot').then(r => r.data) } +// WebSocket quote feed / Level 2 provider control. +// These endpoints change server-side provider state, so the backend accepts +// POST only; a GET is answered with 405 and performs nothing. +export function startWsQuotes() { + return api.post('/ws-quotes/start').then(r => r.data) +} + +export function stopWsQuotes() { + return api.post('/ws-quotes/stop').then(r => r.data) +} + +export function getWsQuotes() { + return api.get('/ws-quotes').then(r => r.data) +} + +export function startLevel2() { + return api.post('/l2/start').then(r => r.data) +} + +export function stopLevel2() { + return api.post('/l2/stop').then(r => r.data) +} + export function getMarketGainers() { return api.get('/market/gainers').then(r => r.data) } @@ -218,7 +433,9 @@ export function getBaostockHealth() { } export function getBaostockStock(code) { - return api.get(`/market/baostock/stock/${code}`).then(r => r.data) + // User-entered tickers go into the path; `#`, `?`, `/` or spaces would + // corrupt the request instead of yielding a clean 404. + return api.get(`/market/baostock/stock/${encodeURIComponent(code)}`).then(r => r.data) } // Core Architecture Monitoring @@ -295,31 +512,142 @@ export function triggerMonitorKillSwitch(params) { return api.post('/monitor/kill-switch', params).then(r => r.data) } -// WebSocket for real-time pipeline status +// ── WebSocket for real-time pipeline status ───────────────────────────────── +// +// Returns a handle whose close() permanently stops reconnection. +// +// Token transport: browsers cannot set handshake headers, so the token travels +// as the `bearer.` WebSocket subprotocol (never in the URL, which +// uvicorn's access log records). A WebSocket subprotocol must be an HTTP token +// (RFC 7230): tokens containing `=` or `/` cannot be sent at all. The legacy +// `?token=` query fallback was removed because it leaked the token into access +// logs; such a token is rejected locally with an auth error until +// QUANT_API_TOKEN is changed to RFC-7230-safe characters. +// The token is re-read on every connect, so changing it in +// Settings applies to the next reconnect. +// +// Lifecycle: exponential backoff with jitter, capped at 30 s, reset on a +// successful open. Policy-violation closes (1008, 4401) mean the token was +// rejected — retrying cannot help, so reconnection stops and the caller is +// told via onError({ type: 'auth' }). + +const RECONNECT_BASE_MS = 1000 +const RECONNECT_MAX_MS = 30000 +const AUTH_CLOSE_CODES = new Set([1008, 4401]) +// RFC 7230 token characters. `bearer.` must match this to be a legal +// subprotocol. +const WS_TOKEN_RE = /^[!#$%&'*+\-.^_`|~0-9A-Za-z]+$/ + +function buildSocketTarget() { + const url = getWsUrl() + const token = getApiToken().trim() + if (!token) return { url, protocols: [] } + if (WS_TOKEN_RE.test(token)) { + return { url, protocols: [`bearer.${token}`] } + } + return { url, protocols: [], invalidToken: true } +} + export function createStatusSocket(onMessage, onError) { - const protocol = location.protocol === 'https:' ? 'wss:' : 'ws:' - const ws = new WebSocket(`${protocol}//${location.host}/api/ws`) + let socket = null + let timer = null + let disposed = false + let attempt = 0 - ws.onmessage = (event) => { + const notify = (info) => { try { - const data = JSON.parse(event.data) - if (onMessage) onMessage(data) + if (onError) onError(info) } catch (_) {} } - ws.onerror = (err) => { - if (onError) onError(err) + const scheduleReconnect = () => { + if (disposed) return + const exp = Math.min(RECONNECT_MAX_MS, RECONNECT_BASE_MS * Math.pow(2, attempt)) + attempt = Math.min(attempt + 1, 10) + const delay = Math.max(500, Math.round(exp * (0.7 + Math.random() * 0.6))) + if (timer) clearTimeout(timer) + timer = setTimeout(connect, delay) } - ws.onclose = () => { - // Auto-reconnect after 3s - setTimeout(() => { + function connect() { + if (disposed) return + if (timer) { + clearTimeout(timer) + timer = null + } + const target = buildSocketTarget() + if (target.invalidToken) { + // There is no safe transport for this token shape: the legacy query + // fallback leaked it into access logs and was removed. + disposed = true + notify({ + type: 'auth', + message: + 'API token contains characters not allowed in a WebSocket ' + + 'subprotocol; use an RFC 7230 token (letters, digits, -._~) or ' + + 'leave QUANT_API_TOKEN unset', + }) + return + } + let ws + try { + ws = target.protocols.length + ? new WebSocket(target.url, target.protocols) + : new WebSocket(target.url) + } catch (_) { + // Constructing the socket failed (e.g. an illegal subprotocol slip + // through); never surface the URL, which may carry the legacy token. + notify({ type: 'construct', message: 'WebSocket could not be created' }) + scheduleReconnect() + return + } + socket = ws + + ws.onopen = () => { + attempt = 0 + } + + ws.onmessage = (event) => { try { - const ws2 = createStatusSocket(onMessage, onError) - return ws2 + const data = JSON.parse(event.data) + if (onMessage) onMessage(data) } catch (_) {} - }, 3000) + } + + ws.onerror = () => { + notify({ type: 'error', message: 'WebSocket connection error' }) + } + + ws.onclose = (event) => { + if (disposed) return + socket = null + if (AUTH_CLOSE_CODES.has(event.code)) { + disposed = true + notify({ + type: 'auth', + code: event.code, + message: 'WebSocket authentication failed; reconnection stopped', + }) + return + } + scheduleReconnect() + } } - return ws + connect() + + return { + get socket() { return socket }, + // True once close() ran or an auth close stopped reconnection. Callers use + // this to recreate the stream instead of trusting a stale handle. + get disposed() { return disposed }, + close() { + disposed = true + if (timer) { + clearTimeout(timer) + timer = null + } + try { if (socket) socket.close() } catch (_) {} + }, + } } diff --git a/frontend/src/components/CommandPalette.vue b/frontend/src/components/CommandPalette.vue index 4ad79cd..b1a84de 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/CommandPalette.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/CommandPalette.vue @@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ const props = defineProps({ modelValue: { type: String, default: 'dashboard' }, }) -const emit = defineEmits(['update:modelValue', 'action', 'toast']) +const emit = defineEmits(['update:modelValue', 'action', 'toast', 'open']) const open = ref(false) const query = ref('') @@ -75,6 +75,7 @@ const commands = computed(() => [ { id: 'factors', icon: '≡', label: $t('nav.factors'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '因子排名' : 'Factor IC rankings', shortcut: '7', tab: 'factors' }, { id: 'history', icon: '⏱', label: $t('nav.history'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '运行历史' : 'Run history', shortcut: '8', tab: 'history' }, { id: 'settings', icon: '⚙', label: $t('nav.settings'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '平台设置' : 'Platform configuration', shortcut: '9', tab: 'settings' }, + { id: 'monitor', icon: '◎', label: $t('nav.monitor'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '风控监控大屏' : 'Risk & TCA monitor', shortcut: '0', tab: 'monitor' }, { id: 'run', icon: '▶', label: $t('terminal.runPipeline'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '开始新回测' : 'Start a new backtest', action: 'run' }, { id: 'demo', icon: '⚡', label: $t('terminal.demoBtn'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '加载示例数据' : 'Load sample data', action: 'demo' }, { id: 'export', icon: '☐', label: $t('terminal.exportBtn'), hint: locale.value === 'zh-CN' ? '导出为 JSON' : 'Download as JSON', action: 'export' }, @@ -96,6 +97,7 @@ watch(query, () => { selected.value = 0 }) watch(open, async (v) => { if (v) { + emit('open') query.value = '' selected.value = 0 await nextTick() @@ -142,11 +144,12 @@ function onKeyDown(e) { e.preventDefault() toggle() } - // Number shortcuts when palette is closed + // Number shortcuts when palette is closed (0 selects the tenth view). if (!open.value && !e.metaKey && !e.ctrlKey && !e.altKey) { - const num = parseInt(e.key) - if (num >= 1 && num <= 9 && document.activeElement?.tagName !== 'INPUT' && document.activeElement?.tagName !== 'SELECT') { - const cmd = commands[num - 1] + const num = parseInt(e.key, 10) + const index = num === 0 ? 9 : num - 1 + if (index >= 0 && index <= 9 && document.activeElement?.tagName !== 'INPUT' && document.activeElement?.tagName !== 'SELECT') { + const cmd = commands.value[index] if (cmd?.tab) { emit('update:modelValue', cmd.tab) } diff --git a/frontend/src/components/DataQuality.vue b/frontend/src/components/DataQuality.vue index ea3ca94..f27954f 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/DataQuality.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/DataQuality.vue @@ -5,16 +5,23 @@ {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '运行质量检查' : 'Run Quality Check' }} - + {{ report.overall_status === 'PASS' ? (locale === 'zh-CN' ? '通过' : 'PASS') : (locale === 'zh-CN' ? '失败' : 'FAIL') }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? `${(report.pass_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% 通过率` : `${(report.pass_rate * 100).toFixed(0)}% pass rate` }} + + {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '（演示数据）' : '(demo data)' }} + +
+ {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? `质量检查失败：${report.error}` : `Quality check failed: ${report.error}` }} +
+ -
+
{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '总检查项' : 'Total Checks' }}
{{ report.total_checks }}
@@ -34,7 +41,7 @@
-
+
{{ c.passed ? '✓' : '✗' }} diff --git a/frontend/src/components/DrawdownPeriods.vue b/frontend/src/components/DrawdownPeriods.vue index 3b693e0..39a1b5a 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/DrawdownPeriods.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/DrawdownPeriods.vue @@ -57,7 +57,12 @@ function depthClass(depth) { } function severityPct(depth) { - return Math.min(Math.abs(depth) * 100 / 0.35 * 100, 100) + // `depth` is a fraction (e.g. -0.05 = -5%). The old formula multiplied by + // 100/0.35*100, so every row deeper than ~0.35% rendered a full bar and the + // column carried no information. Scale a 35% drawdown to a full bar. + const abs = Math.abs(Number(depth)) + if (!Number.isFinite(abs)) return 0 + return Math.min(abs / 0.35 * 100, 100) } diff --git a/frontend/src/components/FactorRanking.vue b/frontend/src/components/FactorRanking.vue index 48fbea8..ec6f506 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/FactorRanking.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/FactorRanking.vue @@ -158,7 +158,9 @@ const sortableColumns = computed(() => [ ]) const positiveFactors = computed(() => - (result.value?.factors || []).filter(f => Math.abs(Number(f.icir)) > 0.2).length + // The card is labelled "ICIR > 0.2"; the old `Math.abs` counted strongly + // negative factors in both the positive and negative cards. + (result.value?.factors || []).filter(f => Number(f.icir) > 0.2).length ) const negativeFactors = computed(() => diff --git a/frontend/src/components/FactorScatter.vue b/frontend/src/components/FactorScatter.vue index 2d8a535..9be99e2 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/FactorScatter.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/FactorScatter.vue @@ -29,7 +29,7 @@
Significance - {{ significance(activeItem.t_stat) }} + {{ significance(activeItem.t_stat) }}
@@ -145,6 +145,9 @@ function renderChart() { }) if (window.ResizeObserver) { + // The chart is disposed/re-created on every data change; drop the previous + // observer instead of accumulating one per render. + if (resizeObserver) resizeObserver.disconnect() resizeObserver = new ResizeObserver(() => chartInstance?.resize()) resizeObserver.observe(chartRef.value) } @@ -157,7 +160,9 @@ function computeRegressionLine(points) { for (const p of points) { sx += p.x; sy += p.y; sxy += p.x * p.y; sx2 += p.x * p.x } - const slope = (n * sxy - sx * sy) / (n * sxy - sx * sx || 1) + // OLS slope denominator is n*Σx² − (Σx)²; using sxy here drew a wrong + // dashed trend line whenever Σxy ≠ Σx². + const slope = (n * sxy - sx * sy) / (n * sx2 - sx * sx || 1) const intercept = (sy - slope * sx) / n const minX = Math.min(...points.map(p => p.x)) const maxX = Math.max(...points.map(p => p.x)) diff --git a/frontend/src/components/KpiStrip.vue b/frontend/src/components/KpiStrip.vue index 3f509dc..ad6e8e4 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/KpiStrip.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/KpiStrip.vue @@ -33,9 +33,9 @@ const metrics = computed(() => { { key: 'ann', label: $t('kpi.annualizedReturn'), display: pct(p.annual_return), tone: p.annual_return >= 0 ? 'pos' : 'neg' }, { key: 'vol', label: $t('kpi.volatility'), display: pct(p.annual_volatility), tone: 'neu' }, { key: 'sharpe', label: $t('kpi.sharpe'), display: num(p.sharpe_ratio), tone: p.sharpe_ratio >= 1 ? 'pos' : p.sharpe_ratio >= 0 ? 'neu' : 'neg' }, - { key: 'sort', label: $t('kpi.calmar'), display: num(p.sortino_ratio), tone: p.sortino_ratio >= 0 ? 'pos' : 'neg' }, + { key: 'sort', label: $t('kpi.sortino'), display: num(p.sortino_ratio), tone: p.sortino_ratio >= 0 ? 'pos' : 'neg' }, { key: 'dd', label: $t('kpi.maxDrawdown'), display: pct(p.max_drawdown), tone: 'neg' }, - { key: 'var', label: $t('kpi.volatility'), display: r.historical_var != null ? pct(r.historical_var) : '--', tone: 'neg' }, + { key: 'var', label: $t('kpi.var'), display: r.historical_var != null ? pct(r.historical_var) : '--', tone: 'neg' }, { key: 'win', label: $t('kpi.winRate'), display: pct(p.win_rate), tone: p.win_rate >= 0.5 ? 'pos' : 'neu', sub: `${p.n_rebalances || 0} ${$t('common.month')}` }, ] }) @@ -45,9 +45,9 @@ const placeholderMetrics = computed(() => [ { key: 'ann', label: $t('kpi.annualizedReturn'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, { key: 'vol', label: $t('kpi.volatility'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, { key: 'sharpe', label: $t('kpi.sharpe'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, - { key: 'sort', label: $t('kpi.calmar'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, + { key: 'sort', label: $t('kpi.sortino'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, { key: 'dd', label: $t('kpi.maxDrawdown'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, - { key: 'var', label: $t('kpi.volatility'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, + { key: 'var', label: $t('kpi.var'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, { key: 'win', label: $t('kpi.winRate'), display: '--', tone: 'dim' }, ]) diff --git a/frontend/src/components/LivePortfolio.vue b/frontend/src/components/LivePortfolio.vue index 2792683..26841c4 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/LivePortfolio.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/LivePortfolio.vue @@ -5,18 +5,31 @@
{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '实时组合追踪' : 'LIVE PORTFOLIO TRACKER' }} + {{ sourceLabel }} + {{ priceBasis }} CNY
- -
+ +
+ {{ locale === 'zh-CN' + ? `部分行情：服务端截止时间前仅取到 ${portfolio.n_with_price}/${portfolio.n_positions + (portfolio.n_no_price || 0)} 只持仓的价格` + : `Partial prices: the server deadline hit before all quotes arrived (${portfolio.n_with_price}/${portfolio.n_positions + (portfolio.n_no_price || 0)} holdings priced)` }} +
+
@@ -49,6 +62,38 @@
+ + +
@@ -63,13 +108,14 @@ + - + @@ -81,6 +127,7 @@ {{ h.pnl_pct >= 0 ? '+' : '' }}{{ h.pnl_pct?.toFixed(2) }}% + + @@ -141,9 +142,32 @@ +
{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '盈亏' : 'P&L' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '收益率' : 'Return' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '权重' : 'Weight' }}{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '价格基准' : 'Basis' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '盈亏条' : 'P&L Bar' }}
{{ i + 1 }}{{ h.code }}{{ normalizeSymbol(h.code) }} {{ formatShares(h.hold_vol) }} {{ h.close?.toFixed(2) }} {{ h.preclose?.toFixed(2) }} {{ getWeight(h.market_value) }}%{{ (h.price_basis || portfolio.price_basis || '—').toString().toUpperCase() }}
- -
+ +
☰
-

{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '导入持仓CSV' : 'Import Holdings CSV' }}

-

- {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '上传包含 ' : 'Upload a CSV file with ' }}code,hold_vol{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? ' 列的CSV文件以实时追踪您的组合。' : ' columns to track your portfolio in real-time.' }} -

- + +
- -
+ +
- {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '正在从Baostock获取实时行情...' : 'Fetching real-time prices from baostock...' }} + {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '正在加载服务器持仓...' : 'Loading server-side holdings...' }}
diff --git a/frontend/src/components/OrderBlotter.vue b/frontend/src/components/OrderBlotter.vue index 75d0f5c..2a54f9f 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/OrderBlotter.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/OrderBlotter.vue @@ -122,6 +122,7 @@
{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '状态' : 'Status' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '策略' : 'Strategy' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '时间' : 'Time' }}{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '操作' : 'Action' }}
{{ o.status }} {{ o.strategy }} {{ formatTime(o.filled_at || o.created_at) }} +
+ + +
+ — +
+
+ +

{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '加载订单簿...' : 'Loading order blotter...' }}

+
☰

{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '暂无订单' : 'No Orders' }}

@@ -165,6 +189,7 @@ {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '浮动盈亏' : 'Unrealized P&L' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '盈亏%' : 'P&L %' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '权重' : 'Weight' }} + {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '价格基准' : 'Basis' }} {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '已实现盈亏' : 'Realized P&L' }} @@ -183,12 +208,17 @@ {{ p.unrealized_pnl_pct >= 0 ? '+' : '' }}{{ p.unrealized_pnl_pct?.toFixed(2) }}% {{ (p.weight * 100)?.toFixed(2) }}% + {{ (p.price_basis || positionsPriceBasis || '—').toString().toUpperCase() }} {{ p.realized_pnl >= 0 ? '+' : '' }}{{ formatNum(p.realized_pnl) }} +
+ +

{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '加载持仓...' : 'Loading positions...' }}

+
☆

{{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '暂无持仓' : 'No Positions' }}

@@ -238,9 +268,19 @@ + + diff --git a/frontend/src/components/StatusBar.vue b/frontend/src/components/StatusBar.vue index 0a6defa..a0962ec 100644 --- a/frontend/src/components/StatusBar.vue +++ b/frontend/src/components/StatusBar.vue @@ -4,10 +4,22 @@ {{ connected ? $t('statusBar.connected') : $t('statusBar.disconnected') }} | - /api + {{ apiBaseLabel }}
-
- {{ locale === 'zh-CN' ? '就绪' : 'READY' }} +
+ + +
@@ -22,21 +34,45 @@