Long-horizon AI shadow signal: 2026-06-30

[github-actions]

Long-Horizon Shadow Signal Request

• As of date: 2026-06-30
• Source ref: main
• Bridge repository: QuantStrategyLab/CodexAuditBridge
• Provider: auto
• Mode: shadow
• Required output: data/output/latest_signal.json
• Historical copy: data/output/signal_history/YYYY-MM-DD.json when evidence is sufficient

Operator Notification

This issue is the operator-facing notification for the shadow signal run.
CodexAuditBridge should post its review result here and may open a focused PR
only for schema-valid shadow artifacts.

Boundaries

• AI output must not place orders or change live strategy rules.
• Any downstream use must remain advisory until a deterministic policy consumes the artifact.
• If evidence is insufficient, report findings and leave artifacts unchanged.

Context Bundle

Use this point-in-time context bundle as the primary evidence for the shadow signal review.

{
  "as_of": "2026-06-30",
  "data_quality": {
    "source": "yahoo_chart_or_operator_price_csv",
    "synthetic": false,
    "warnings": [
      "symbols not updated to latest as_of 2026-06-30: CRWD"
    ]
  },
  "existing_strategy_context": {
    "ai_may_place_orders": false,
    "ai_mode": "shadow",
    "downstream_policy_required": true
  },
  "generated_at": "2026-07-01T06:50:48.104099Z",
  "horizon": "1-3 years",
  "notes": [
    "Point-in-time context bundle for shadow research only.",
    "This bundle is evidence for AI review, not a trading instruction.",
    "Historical AI judgments must come from saved artifacts, not regenerated prompts."
  ],
  "price_context": {
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      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": 0.0,
      "latest_close": 580.909973,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.821826,
      "returns": {
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        "21d": 0.125576,
        "252d": 3.039427,
        "5d": 0.117457,
        "63d": 1.963222
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 274.4916,
        "50d": 450.3956
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "high"
    },
    "AMZN": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.133278,
      "latest_close": 238.339996,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.383088,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.02503,
        "21d": -0.119347,
        "252d": 0.067353,
        "5d": 0.018068,
        "63d": 0.186066
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 232.8586,
        "50d": 255.6932
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "high"
    },
    "AVGO": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.214345,
      "latest_close": 377.75,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.719788,
      "returns": {
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        "252d": 0.412726,
        "5d": -0.006313,
        "63d": 0.289485
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        "50d": 410.303657
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "high"
    },
    "BIL": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": 0.0,
      "latest_close": 91.639999,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.002305,
      "returns": {
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        "21d": 0.002724,
        "252d": 0.038372,
        "5d": 0.000655,
        "63d": 0.008813
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      "sma": {
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        "50d": 91.328537
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      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "normal"
    },
    "BOXX": {
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      "trend": "above_200d",
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      "trend": "below_200d",
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    "CRWD": {
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      "volatility": "high"
    },
    "CVX": {
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    "DELL": {
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    },
    "DIA": {
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    "GOOGL": {
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      "trend": "above_200d",
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    "INTC": {
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      "realized_vol_21d": 0.957648,
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      "trend": "above_200d",
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    "IWM": {
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    "JPM": {
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    "TSLA": {
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    "XLI": {
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      "realized_vol_21d": 0.235053,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.18445,
        "21d": 0.072522,
        "252d": 0.278133,
        "5d": 0.039742,
        "63d": 0.185657
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 163.329687,
        "50d": 174.473801
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "elevated"
    },
    "XLK": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.037651,
      "latest_close": 190.520004,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.434888,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.303381,
        "21d": -0.001428,
        "252d": 0.527454,
        "5d": 0.034367,
        "63d": 0.496056
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 150.799113,
        "50d": 177.255871
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "high"
    },
    "XLU": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.032248,
      "latest_close": 45.34,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.185796,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.074066,
        "21d": 0.027229,
        "252d": 0.146056,
        "5d": 0.005991,
        "63d": -0.006326
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 44.08081,
        "50d": 44.773207
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "normal"
    },
    "XLV": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.01294,
      "latest_close": 158.660004,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.206289,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.025408,
        "21d": 0.066165,
        "252d": 0.20534,
        "5d": 0.042581,
        "63d": 0.10805
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 148.71134,
        "50d": 148.441762
      },
      "trend": "mixed",
      "volatility": "normal"
    },
    "XOM": {
      "as_of": "2026-06-30",
      "drawdown_63d": -0.188683,
      "latest_close": 136.720001,
      "observations": 288,
      "realized_vol_21d": 0.262821,
      "returns": {
        "126d": 0.16334,
        "21d": -0.058791,
        "252d": 0.289798,
        "5d": -0.021542,
        "63d": -0.197247
      },
      "sma": {
        "200d": 134.032644,
        "50d": 147.965569
      },
      "trend": "above_200d",
      "volatility": "elevated"
    }
  },
  "schema_version": "1",
  "theme_context": {
    "anti_overfit_policy": {
      "ai_output_remains_shadow_only": true,
      "recent_heat_does_not_change_membership": true,
      "theme_bias_requires_point_in_time_artifact": true,
      "theme_membership_is_static_research_context": true
    },
    "coverage": {
      "covered_symbol_count": 40,
      "missing_symbols": [],
      "requested_symbol_count": 40
    },
    "symbol_theme_exposure": {
      "AMD": [
        "ai_compute",
        "foundry_semicap"
      ],
      "AMZN": [
        "ai_compute",
        "consumer_platforms"
      ],
      "AVGO": [
        "ai_compute",
        "foundry_semicap"
      ],
      "BIL": [
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "BOXX": [
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "COIN": [
        "crypto_infrastructure",
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "CRWD": [
        "cybersecurity"
      ],
      "CVX": [
        "energy_security"
      ],
      "DELL": [
        "ai_server_infrastructure",
        "ai_compute"
      ],
      "DIA": [
        "industrial_automation",
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "GOOGL": [
        "ai_compute",
        "consumer_platforms"
      ],
      "INTC": [
        "foundry_semicap",
        "ai_compute"
      ],
      "IWM": [
        "industrial_automation",
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "JPM": [
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "LMT": [
        "defense_aerospace"
      ],
      "META": [
        "ai_compute",
        "consumer_platforms"
      ],
      "MSFT": [
        "ai_compute",
        "cybersecurity"
      ],
      "MSTR": [
        "crypto_infrastructure"
      ],
      "MU": [
        "hbm_memory",
        "ai_compute"
      ],
      "NEE": [
        "data_center_power",
        "clean_energy_grid"
      ],
      "NOC": [
        "defense_aerospace"
      ],
      "NVDA": [
        "ai_compute"
      ],
      "PANW": [
        "cybersecurity"
      ],
      "QQQ": [
        "ai_compute",
        "consumer_platforms",
        "cybersecurity"
      ],
      "RTX": [
        "defense_aerospace"
      ],
      "SMCI": [
        "ai_server_infrastructure",
        "data_center_power"
      ],
      "SOXX": [
        "ai_compute",
        "hbm_memory",
        "foundry_semicap"
      ],
      "SPY": [
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "TQQQ": [
        "ai_compute",
        "consumer_platforms"
      ],
      "TSLA": [
        "automobility_ev",
        "ai_compute",
        "data_center_power"
      ],
      "TSM": [
        "foundry_semicap",
        "ai_compute"
      ],
      "UNH": [
        "healthcare_policy"
      ],
      "VRT": [
        "data_center_power",
        "ai_server_infrastructure"
      ],
      "XLE": [
        "energy_security"
      ],
      "XLF": [
        "financial_market_infrastructure"
      ],
      "XLI": [
        "industrial_automation",
        "defense_aerospace"
      ],
      "XLK": [
        "ai_compute",
        "cybersecurity",
        "consumer_platforms"
      ],
      "XLU": [
        "data_center_power",
        "clean_energy_grid"
      ],
      "XLV": [
        "healthcare_policy"
      ],
      "XOM": [
        "energy_security"
      ]
    },
    "symbol_theme_metadata": {
      "AMD": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AI accelerators and CPU/GPU data-center exposure."
      },
      "AMZN": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AWS AI infrastructure plus e-commerce and advertising platform exposure."
      },
      "AVGO": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Custom AI ASICs"
      },
      "BIL": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Cash-like short Treasury ETF used as defensive baseline."
      },
      "BOXX": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Cash-like Treasury-box exposure used as defensive baseline."
      },
      "COIN": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Crypto exchange and digital-asset market-structure exposure."
      },
      "CRWD": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Endpoint and cloud cybersecurity exposure."
      },
      "CVX": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Integrated oil and gas energy-security exposure."
      },
      "DELL": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AI server"
      },
      "DIA": {
        "exposure_confidence": "low",
        "rationale": "Blue-chip industrial and financial context benchmark."
      },
      "GOOGL": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Cloud AI"
      },
      "INTC": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Domestic foundry"
      },
      "IWM": {
        "exposure_confidence": "low",
        "rationale": "Small-cap benchmark for domestic cyclicality context."
      },
      "JPM": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Systemic bank"
      },
      "LMT": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Defense prime and government procurement exposure."
      },
      "META": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AI infrastructure"
      },
      "MSFT": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Cloud AI"
      },
      "MSTR": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Bitcoin treasury and digital-asset beta exposure."
      },
      "MU": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "HBM"
      },
      "NEE": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Utility"
      },
      "NOC": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Defense prime and aerospace systems exposure."
      },
      "NVDA": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AI accelerator and platform ecosystem exposure."
      },
      "PANW": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Network and cloud cybersecurity exposure."
      },
      "QQQ": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Growth benchmark with large technology and platform concentration."
      },
      "RTX": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Defense and aerospace procurement exposure."
      },
      "SMCI": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "AI server and rack-scale infrastructure exposure."
      },
      "SOXX": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Semiconductor ETF used as sector benchmark."
      },
      "SPY": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Broad US equity benchmark used as market baseline."
      },
      "TQQQ": {
        "exposure_confidence": "low",
        "rationale": "Leveraged growth proxy; use for regime context only."
      },
      "TSLA": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "EV"
      },
      "TSM": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Leading-edge foundry and AI supply-chain exposure."
      },
      "UNH": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Managed care and healthcare policy exposure."
      },
      "VRT": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Data-center power and cooling infrastructure exposure."
      },
      "XLE": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Energy sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XLF": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Financial sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XLI": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Industrial sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XLK": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Technology sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XLU": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Utility sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XLV": {
        "exposure_confidence": "medium",
        "rationale": "Healthcare sector ETF benchmark."
      },
      "XOM": {
        "exposure_confidence": "high",
        "rationale": "Integrated oil and gas energy-security exposure."
      }
    },
    "taxonomy_version": "2026-05-31-core-themes-v1",
    "themes": {
      "ai_compute": {
        "description": "Accelerators, cloud AI platforms, model serving, and enterprise AI infrastructure demand.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "AI compute platforms",
        "sector": "technology",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, IR releases, hyperscaler capex evidence, or durable industry data before recommendation escalation."
      },
      "ai_server_infrastructure": {
        "description": "AI servers, racks, thermal design, storage, networking, and enterprise AI capex.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "AI server and data-center hardware",
        "sector": "technology",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer releases, filings, customer demand evidence, or confirmed procurement data."
      },
      "automobility_ev": {
        "description": "EVs, autonomy, batteries, tariffs, domestic manufacturing, and auto credit cycle.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Automobility and EV transition",
        "sector": "consumer_discretionary",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, regulator safety data, tariff policy, official incentives, or durable delivery data."
      },
      "clean_energy_grid": {
        "description": "Solar, grid equipment, storage, interconnection, and electricity demand transition.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Clean energy and grid transition",
        "sector": "utilities",
        "source_policy": "Require DOE/FERC/state regulator documents, issuer filings, or project-level evidence."
      },
      "consumer_platforms": {
        "description": "Ads, app ecosystems, gaming, social platforms, e-commerce, and consumer demand.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "Consumer platforms and ads",
        "sector": "communication_services",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, platform policy evidence, app-store disclosures, or durable ad-market data."
      },
      "crypto_infrastructure": {
        "description": "Crypto exchanges, treasury exposure, ETFs, market structure, and digital-asset regulatory regime.",
        "horizon": "3-18 months",
        "name": "Crypto infrastructure and digital assets",
        "sector": "financials",
        "source_policy": "Require SEC/CFTC/Treasury materials, issuer filings, exchange disclosures, or durable market data."
      },
      "cybersecurity": {
        "description": "Cloud security, endpoint, identity, network defense, and government cyber policy demand.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Enterprise cybersecurity",
        "sector": "technology",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer filings, contract disclosures, government cybersecurity policy, or primary procurement evidence."
      },
      "data_center_power": {
        "description": "Power generation, grid capacity, cooling, nuclear, and utility exposure to data-center load growth.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Data-center power and cooling",
        "sector": "utilities",
        "source_policy": "Require utility filings, regulator materials, power purchase agreements, issuer releases, or official project data."
      },
      "defense_aerospace": {
        "description": "Defense procurement, aerospace backlog, drones, missiles, satellites, and geopolitical spending.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Defense and aerospace",
        "sector": "industrials",
        "source_policy": "Require DoD/agency awards, issuer backlog disclosures, budget documents, or official procurement records."
      },
      "energy_security": {
        "description": "Oil, gas, LNG, refining, sanctions, energy security, and geopolitical supply constraints.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "Energy security and hydrocarbons",
        "sector": "energy",
        "source_policy": "Require EIA/DOE/Treasury materials, issuer filings, official sanctions, or durable commodity context."
      },
      "financial_market_infrastructure": {
        "description": "Banks, brokers, exchanges, crypto-linked market access, rate sensitivity, and capital markets activity.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "Financial and market infrastructure",
        "sector": "financials",
        "source_policy": "Require regulatory filings, bank disclosures, market-structure rules, or durable volume and spread data."
      },
      "foundry_semicap": {
        "description": "Foundry capacity, semiconductor equipment, export controls, CHIPS Act, and reshoring policy.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Foundry and semiconductor policy",
        "sector": "technology",
        "source_policy": "Require SEC filings, government policy documents, grants, export-control notices, or issuer materials."
      },
      "hbm_memory": {
        "description": "HBM, DRAM, NAND, and memory-cycle supply demand linked to AI and data-center buildout.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "HBM and memory cycle",
        "sector": "technology",
        "source_policy": "Prefer issuer filings, earnings transcripts, capex plans, and supply-chain primary evidence."
      },
      "healthcare_policy": {
        "description": "Managed care, reimbursement, drug policy, hospital utilization, and election/regulatory health policy.",
        "horizon": "6-24 months",
        "name": "Healthcare policy and managed care",
        "sector": "healthcare",
        "source_policy": "Require CMS/HHS documents, SEC filings, issuer releases, or official policy evidence."
      },
      "industrial_automation": {
        "description": "Factory automation, aerospace supply chain, electrification equipment, and reshoring capex.",
        "horizon": "1-3 years",
        "name": "Industrial automation and reshoring",
        "sector": "industrials",
        "source_policy": "Require issuer backlog/capex evidence, government manufacturing policy, or official project data."
      }
    }
  },
  "universe": [
    "SPY",
    "QQQ",
    "SOXX",
    "TQQQ",
    "BIL",
    "BOXX",
    "IWM",
    "DIA",
    "XLF",
    "XLV",
    "XLE",
    "XLI",
    "XLU",
    "XLK",
    "NVDA",
    "AMD",
    "AVGO",
    "TSM",
    "MU",
    "INTC",
    "DELL",
    "SMCI",
    "VRT",
    "MSFT",
    "GOOGL",
    "AMZN",
    "META",
    "CRWD",
    "PANW",
    "LMT",
    "RTX",
    "NOC",
    "CVX",
    "XOM",
    "JPM",
    "UNH",
    "NEE",
    "TSLA",
    "COIN",
    "MSTR"
  ]
}

Do not infer historical AI signals that were not generated point-in-time.

[quantcrossrepoautomation]

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