From ba91d5ec91163319eff2f143e7148109dfbcbe69 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 08:56:57 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/4] Document why the model leaves out Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment No heating-fuel proxy lands near DESNZ's 1,842,760 delivered payments on a dataset with a 2023 year, so the model keeps paying nothing in Great Britain. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/2767.changed.md | 1 + .../gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md | 33 +++++++++++++++++-- 2 files changed, 31 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/2767.changed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/2767.changed.md b/changelog.d/2767.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..7528c75328 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/2767.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Documented why the model leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment and what it would need to pay it. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md index 6b20bafc34..c7ad92be92 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md @@ -30,9 +30,10 @@ spike in domestic energy prices. Two strands: package. Northern Ireland paid £600 in one go from January 2023: £400 of support and a £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, to each domestic electricity customer on 2 January 2023, whatever fuel the household heats with (EBSS - AFP NI Direction, 23 December 2022, paragraph 3 and footnote 1). Great - Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, for households that heat with - heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels, is not modelled. + AFP NI Direction, 23 December 2022, paragraph 3 and footnote 1). The model + leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, for households + that heat with heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels (see + below). PolicyEngine models these via: @@ -78,6 +79,32 @@ calendar year in the same way; it counts in household net income and government spending but not in HBAI income. The model keeps one timing for both schemes for now. +### Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment + +Electricity suppliers in Great Britain delivered 1,842,760 £200 payments worth +£368.6 million ([DESNZ supplier data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alternative-fuel-payment-gb-payments-made-by-electricity-suppliers-to-customers)), +and local authorities paid 89,750 more through the Alternative Fund +([DESNZ applications data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support-scheme-alternative-fund-gb-ni-and-alternative-fuel-payment-alternative-fund-applications-made-by-customers)). +The model leaves out both, so it understates 2023 income and government +spending for those households. No forecast year changes. + +Suppliers paid the account holder of each electricity meter the Secretary of +State named, on a qualifying date of 1 February 2023 ([direction](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63ceba6fe90e071bac7eadce/alternative-fuels-payment-gb-ministerial-direction.pdf), +paragraph 6). DESNZ built that list from postcodes not connected to the gas +grid and removed areas with high use of electric heating +([interim evaluation](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/domestic-energy-affordability-support-schemes-in-great-britain-interim-evaluation), +page 54). + +A rule on positive `liquid_fuel_consumption` or `solid_fuel_consumption` would +miss that list. The enhanced FRS 2023-24 has neither column, so the rule would +pay nobody in Great Britain in 2023. Microcosm has both from 2024, and its +842,000 Great Britain households with spending on either fall 54% short of +DESNZ's delivered payments. In the Living Costs and Food Survey, the source of +both inputs, about a third of Great Britain households buying these fuels have +gas central heating, and about four in ten with oil, solid fuel or bottled gas +central heating report no purchase. The model needs a dataset input that +records heating fuel for 2023 before it can pay this strand. + ## Household Energy Payment (2026-27) Budget 2026 (paragraph 6.24) announced a one-off £100 Household Energy From ffec8dd5fbc3efd5d3800cc4e6d5a313ad62934e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 09:10:57 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/4] Tighten the Great Britain Alternative Fuel Payment docs State the size of the omission, quote the direction's account-holder test on 1 February 2023, and say what the 2023 datasets lack rather than what would fix it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/2767.changed.md | 2 +- .../gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md | 31 +++++++++---------- 2 files changed, 16 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/2767.changed.md b/changelog.d/2767.changed.md index 7528c75328..31a3989d03 100644 --- a/changelog.d/2767.changed.md +++ b/changelog.d/2767.changed.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -Documented why the model leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment and what it would need to pay it. +Document why the model leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment. diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md index c7ad92be92..50d39fa012 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md @@ -32,8 +32,7 @@ spike in domestic energy prices. Two strands: customer on 2 January 2023, whatever fuel the household heats with (EBSS AFP NI Direction, 23 December 2022, paragraph 3 and footnote 1). The model leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, for households - that heat with heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels (see - below). + that heat with heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels. PolicyEngine models these via: @@ -81,29 +80,29 @@ both schemes for now. ### Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment -Electricity suppliers in Great Britain delivered 1,842,760 £200 payments worth -£368.6 million ([DESNZ supplier data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alternative-fuel-payment-gb-payments-made-by-electricity-suppliers-to-customers)), +Electricity suppliers in Great Britain paid £200 to 1,842,760 customers, +£368.6 million in all ([DESNZ supplier data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/alternative-fuel-payment-gb-payments-made-by-electricity-suppliers-to-customers)), and local authorities paid 89,750 more through the Alternative Fund ([DESNZ applications data](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-bills-support-scheme-alternative-fund-gb-ni-and-alternative-fuel-payment-alternative-fund-applications-made-by-customers)). The model leaves out both, so it understates 2023 income and government -spending for those households. No forecast year changes. +spending by about £387 million. The omission affects 2023 alone. -Suppliers paid the account holder of each electricity meter the Secretary of -State named, on a qualifying date of 1 February 2023 ([direction](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63ceba6fe90e071bac7eadce/alternative-fuels-payment-gb-ministerial-direction.pdf), +Suppliers paid whoever held the account, at the start of 1 February 2023, for +each electricity meter the Secretary of State named ([direction](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63ceba6fe90e071bac7eadce/alternative-fuels-payment-gb-ministerial-direction.pdf), paragraph 6). DESNZ built that list from postcodes not connected to the gas grid and removed areas with high use of electric heating ([interim evaluation](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/domestic-energy-affordability-support-schemes-in-great-britain-interim-evaluation), page 54). -A rule on positive `liquid_fuel_consumption` or `solid_fuel_consumption` would -miss that list. The enhanced FRS 2023-24 has neither column, so the rule would -pay nobody in Great Britain in 2023. Microcosm has both from 2024, and its -842,000 Great Britain households with spending on either fall 54% short of -DESNZ's delivered payments. In the Living Costs and Food Survey, the source of -both inputs, about a third of Great Britain households buying these fuels have -gas central heating, and about four in ten with oil, solid fuel or bottled gas -central heating report no purchase. The model needs a dataset input that -records heating fuel for 2023 before it can pay this strand. +Spending on liquid and solid fuels does not track that list. In the Living +Costs and Food Survey, about a third of Great Britain households buying these +fuels have gas central heating, and more than a third of households with oil, +solid fuel, calor gas or other gas central heating report no purchase. The +enhanced FRS 2023-24 carries neither `liquid_fuel_consumption` nor +`solid_fuel_consumption`. PolicyEngine's Microcosm dataset carries both from +2024, and its 842,000 Great Britain households with spending on either fall 54% +short of DESNZ's count. None of the model's datasets with a 2023 year records a +household's heating fuel or gas connection. ## Household Energy Payment (2026-27) From df640ec60dc4e21276c2f44d953929d8b07bdd3b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 09:18:32 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/4] Describe the Alternative Fuel Payment by meter in the docs bullet Suppliers paid on the meters the government listed, whatever fuel the home burned, so the bullet now matches the section below it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md | 19 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md index 50d39fa012..91747e3729 100644 --- a/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md +++ b/docs/book/programs/gov/treasury/cost-of-living-payments.md @@ -31,8 +31,8 @@ spike in domestic energy prices. Two strands: support and a £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, to each domestic electricity customer on 2 January 2023, whatever fuel the household heats with (EBSS AFP NI Direction, 23 December 2022, paragraph 3 and footnote 1). The model - leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, for households - that heat with heating oil, LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels. + leaves out Great Britain's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment, which suppliers + paid on electricity meters the government listed in areas off the gas grid. PolicyEngine models these via: @@ -89,16 +89,17 @@ spending by about £387 million. The omission affects 2023 alone. Suppliers paid whoever held the account, at the start of 1 February 2023, for each electricity meter the Secretary of State named ([direction](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63ceba6fe90e071bac7eadce/alternative-fuels-payment-gb-ministerial-direction.pdf), -paragraph 6). DESNZ built that list from postcodes not connected to the gas -grid and removed areas with high use of electric heating +paragraph 6). The department built that list from postcodes not connected to +the gas grid and removed areas with high use of electric heating ([interim evaluation](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/domestic-energy-affordability-support-schemes-in-great-britain-interim-evaluation), page 54). -Spending on liquid and solid fuels does not track that list. In the Living -Costs and Food Survey, about a third of Great Britain households buying these -fuels have gas central heating, and more than a third of households with oil, -solid fuel, calor gas or other gas central heating report no purchase. The -enhanced FRS 2023-24 carries neither `liquid_fuel_consumption` nor +Spending on liquid and solid fuels does not pick out the households on that +list. In the Living Costs and Food Survey, about a third of Great Britain +households buying these fuels have gas central heating, and more than a third +of households with oil, solid fuel, calor gas or other gas central heating +report no purchase. The enhanced FRS 2023-24 carries neither +`liquid_fuel_consumption` nor `solid_fuel_consumption`. PolicyEngine's Microcosm dataset carries both from 2024, and its 842,000 Great Britain households with spending on either fall 54% short of DESNZ's count. None of the model's datasets with a 2023 year records a From edffb7e19693d900ce18a94213644fa3aa65f918 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 09:28:05 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 4/4] Describe Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment by meter in the variable The formula stays the same. Only the description changes, to match the docs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment.py | 6 +++--- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment.py b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment.py index 8ec5791536..9a07704fc4 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment.py +++ b/policyengine_uk/variables/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment.py @@ -7,9 +7,9 @@ class monthly_ebr_alternative_fuel_payment(Variable): "Northern Ireland's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment for the month. " "Electricity suppliers paid it with the £400 Energy Bills Support " "Scheme amount, as one £600 payment to each eligible domestic " - "customer, whatever fuel the household heats with. Great Britain's " - "Alternative Fuel Payment, for households that heat with heating oil, " - "LPG, biomass and other alternative fuels, is not modelled." + "customer, whatever fuel the household heats with. The model leaves " + "out Great Britain's Alternative Fuel Payment, which suppliers paid on " + "electricity meters the government listed in areas off the gas grid." ) entity = Household definition_period = MONTH