From 1432062732b89ea90c08c8a712fb010ecc523cdd Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:18:37 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] Document that NI business rates count regional and district rates MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The Northern Ireland statistic is LPS non-domestic rates paid, which covers the regional rate and each council's district rate (levied as one bill, Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, art 9(1)). The OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line that projects it covers the regional rate only, which is why the statistic is about twice the line. ONS records the two parts separately (CRPSF FYE 2025: regional £327m, district £378m in 2024-25). Fixes #2343 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- ...usiness-rates-regional-district.changed.md | 1 + policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml | 10 ++++--- .../gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml | 2 +- .../gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml | 27 ++++++++++++++++--- 4 files changed, 32 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md b/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..d16023af0 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Documented that the Northern Ireland business rates statistic counts the regional and district rates, while the OBR line that projects it covers the regional rate only. diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml index 6f340ec19..2a20ed1f5 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml @@ -343,9 +343,13 @@ tax_heads: projected with OBR receipts (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics). In 2026-27 the England, Scotland and Wales series total £37.26bn against £37.41bn on the OBR's Business rates line (receipts Table 3.8). - Northern Ireland's £0.78bn (LPS non-domestic rates paid) compares with - £0.40bn on the OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line, which the - OBR records under other taxes (Table 3.2). Measured 2026-10-11. + Northern Ireland's £0.78bn (LPS non-domestic rates paid, regional and + district rates together) compares with £0.40bn on the OBR's "Northern + Ireland business rates" line, which the OBR records under other taxes + (Table 3.2) and which covers the regional rate only. ONS records NI + regional non-domestic rates (central government, £327m in 2024-25) and + district non-domestic rates (local government, £378m) separately. + Measured 2026-10-11. - id: sdlt_household label: Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases variable: expected_sdlt diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index 4492945ab..75e40e72b 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -739,7 +739,7 @@ obr: - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.9; 2023-24 outturn) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ northern_ireland: - description: Growth in Northern Ireland business rates receipts (the OBR "Northern Ireland business rates" line in other taxes). + description: Growth in Northern Ireland business rates receipts (the OBR "Northern Ireland business rates" line in other taxes, which covers the regional rate; also applied to district rates, which councils set a year at a time). values: # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.2 "Northern Ireland business rates" 2024-01-01: 0.032513 diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml index 84cdf1b00..b418171fe 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml @@ -10,7 +10,9 @@ metadata: # span several authorities), whose rates are paid to the Secretary of State # or the Welsh Government instead. # - Scotland: the contributable amount councils pay into the national pool. -# - Northern Ireland: non-domestic rates paid to Land & Property Services. +# - Northern Ireland: non-domestic rates paid to Land & Property Services, +# which levies the regional rate and each council's district rate as one +# bill. # business_rates allocates all of it by shareholding, a modelling convention # that applies to every ratepayer on the lists, including, on the Welsh # central list in 2024-25, Network Rail (£10.5m) and Dwr Cymru (£17.0m) of @@ -26,7 +28,8 @@ metadata: # After its latest outturn year each series is projected by uprating with the # OBR's receipts forecast: England, Scotland and Wales with the OBR's # "Business rates" line, Northern Ireland with its "Northern Ireland business -# rates" line (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.business_rates). The +# rates" line (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.business_rates), which +# covers the regional rate only (see NORTHERN_IRELAND below). The # economic-assumption indices run to 2039, so every series is flat in cash # terms from 2039-40. revenue: @@ -128,11 +131,27 @@ revenue: reference: - title: StatsWales, Non-domestic rates central list, "Total Rates Received", Wales (2019-20 to 2024-25) href: https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/ddada8b1-60ac-4a9a-8a8e-4e04df23d2f8/start + # A Northern Ireland rate bill is the regional rate, made by the Department + # of Finance, plus the council's district rate, levied "as if they were + # items of a single rate" (Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, art 9(1)). + # This series counts both. The OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line + # that projects it covers the regional rate only, so it is about half this + # level: £382m against £741m in 2024-25. + # - ONS records NI regional non-domestic rates (central government, £327m + # in 2024-25) and district non-domestic rates (local government, £378m) + # separately (Country and regional public sector finances, financial year + # ending 2025). + # - Splitting each council's 2024-25 payments by its regional (29.02p) and + # district (25.57p to 38.22p) poundages gives a regional part of £364m. + # - Councils set district rates a year at a time and no official forecast + # covers later years, so the district part is assumed to grow with the + # OBR's regional line. NORTHERN_IRELAND: description: >- Non-domestic rates paid against ratepayer accounts in the rating year, - Northern Ireland. The series starts in 2020-21 (a rates-holiday year), - and earlier years take that value. + Northern Ireland, regional and district rates together. The series + starts in 2020-21 (a rates-holiday year), and earlier years take that + value. values: 2020-01-01: 380_876_615 2021-01-01: 446_688_825