diff --git a/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md b/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..d16023af0 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/ni-business-rates-regional-district.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +- Documented that the Northern Ireland business rates statistic counts the regional and district rates, while the OBR line that projects it covers the regional rate only. diff --git a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml index 6f340ec19..2a20ed1f5 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml @@ -343,9 +343,13 @@ tax_heads: projected with OBR receipts (gov.hmrc.business_rates.statistics). In 2026-27 the England, Scotland and Wales series total £37.26bn against £37.41bn on the OBR's Business rates line (receipts Table 3.8). - Northern Ireland's £0.78bn (LPS non-domestic rates paid) compares with - £0.40bn on the OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line, which the - OBR records under other taxes (Table 3.2). Measured 2026-10-11. + Northern Ireland's £0.78bn (LPS non-domestic rates paid, regional and + district rates together) compares with £0.40bn on the OBR's "Northern + Ireland business rates" line, which the OBR records under other taxes + (Table 3.2) and which covers the regional rate only. ONS records NI + regional non-domestic rates (central government, £327m in 2024-25) and + district non-domestic rates (local government, £378m) separately. + Measured 2026-10-11. - id: sdlt_household label: Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases variable: expected_sdlt diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml index 4492945ab..75e40e72b 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml @@ -739,7 +739,7 @@ obr: - title: OBR EFO March 2025 (detailed forecast tables, receipts, Table 3.9; 2023-24 outturn) href: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/ northern_ireland: - description: Growth in Northern Ireland business rates receipts (the OBR "Northern Ireland business rates" line in other taxes). + description: Growth in Northern Ireland business rates receipts (the OBR "Northern Ireland business rates" line in other taxes, which covers the regional rate; also applied to district rates, which councils set a year at a time). values: # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24), Table 3.2 "Northern Ireland business rates" 2024-01-01: 0.032513 diff --git a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml index 84cdf1b00..b418171fe 100644 --- a/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml +++ b/policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml @@ -10,7 +10,9 @@ metadata: # span several authorities), whose rates are paid to the Secretary of State # or the Welsh Government instead. # - Scotland: the contributable amount councils pay into the national pool. -# - Northern Ireland: non-domestic rates paid to Land & Property Services. +# - Northern Ireland: non-domestic rates paid to Land & Property Services, +# which levies the regional rate and each council's district rate as one +# bill. # business_rates allocates all of it by shareholding, a modelling convention # that applies to every ratepayer on the lists, including, on the Welsh # central list in 2024-25, Network Rail (£10.5m) and Dwr Cymru (£17.0m) of @@ -26,7 +28,8 @@ metadata: # After its latest outturn year each series is projected by uprating with the # OBR's receipts forecast: England, Scotland and Wales with the OBR's # "Business rates" line, Northern Ireland with its "Northern Ireland business -# rates" line (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.business_rates). The +# rates" line (gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.business_rates), which +# covers the regional rate only (see NORTHERN_IRELAND below). The # economic-assumption indices run to 2039, so every series is flat in cash # terms from 2039-40. revenue: @@ -128,11 +131,27 @@ revenue: reference: - title: StatsWales, Non-domestic rates central list, "Total Rates Received", Wales (2019-20 to 2024-25) href: https://stats.gov.wales/en-GB/ddada8b1-60ac-4a9a-8a8e-4e04df23d2f8/start + # A Northern Ireland rate bill is the regional rate, made by the Department + # of Finance, plus the council's district rate, levied "as if they were + # items of a single rate" (Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, art 9(1)). + # This series counts both. The OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line + # that projects it covers the regional rate only, so it is about half this + # level: £382m against £741m in 2024-25. + # - ONS records NI regional non-domestic rates (central government, £327m + # in 2024-25) and district non-domestic rates (local government, £378m) + # separately (Country and regional public sector finances, financial year + # ending 2025). + # - Splitting each council's 2024-25 payments by its regional (29.02p) and + # district (25.57p to 38.22p) poundages gives a regional part of £364m. + # - Councils set district rates a year at a time and no official forecast + # covers later years, so the district part is assumed to grow with the + # OBR's regional line. NORTHERN_IRELAND: description: >- Non-domestic rates paid against ratepayer accounts in the rating year, - Northern Ireland. The series starts in 2020-21 (a rates-holiday year), - and earlier years take that value. + Northern Ireland, regional and district rates together. The series + starts in 2020-21 (a rates-holiday year), and earlier years take that + value. values: 2020-01-01: 380_876_615 2021-01-01: 446_688_825