From d4e82856aa432792c4886e5c53a7fef3f6656a98 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:38:20 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] PTA post: say we have not established why our reach exceeds the Treasury's MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit PolicyEngine's 2027-28 count (668,000 paying less income tax) is about a third above HM Treasury's explainer (about 500,000), as is 2029-30's 1.36 million against "around 1 million by the end of this Parliament". The rules match (State Pension age, total income in the band, no State Pension receipt test, the £12,570 Personal Allowance), and about 200,000 of PolicyEngine's gainers have only the full new State Pension, but removing them does not reconcile the cost, so the cause is not established. The sentence says so, after the explainer's figures. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 3704aa10d..e7f171df7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -754,7 +754,7 @@ In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less ### Who gains -In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 857,000 in 2028-29 and 1.09 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £97 and £132 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. +In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 857,000 in 2028-29 and 1.09 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £97 and £132 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. PolicyEngine's counts are about a third higher than the Treasury's, and we have not established why. Both count people over State Pension age whose income tax falls; the government's costing estimates them with HMRC's Personal Tax Model and administrative data, and PolicyEngine with its representative sample of households. Very few households lose: fewer than 10,000 in each year, too few in the survey sample to estimate the number precisely. From 2028-29, some of them lose a free TV licence, as household 5 does.