From 60f50e54476619a3640935e26c96cb4fe235329d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:24:22 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] Active voice in the fuel duty and PTA posts Max's rule (28 Oct 2026): active voice in everything written for PE. No passives, and no "be + preposition" spines. Ten wording changes, drafted by the Autumn Budget voice sweep and checked by an independent reviewer. No figures, links or citations change. Fuel duty post: lines 504, 518 and 532. PTA post: lines 1, 16, 46, 70, 965, 972 and 990. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 6 +++--- .../data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 14 +++++++------- 2 files changed, 10 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index eef49fd95..aac51f1d1 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -501,7 +501,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income } ``` -The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This rate counts people whose household's equivalised income before housing costs, after direct taxes but before taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.01% in 2026-27 and 0.02% in 2027-28. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This rate counts people whose household's equivalised income before housing costs, after direct taxes but before taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, falls below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.01% in 2026-27 and 0.02% in 2027-28. ## Appendix @@ -515,7 +515,7 @@ Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources an - **Couple with two children on Universal Credit:** both aged 35, with children aged 8 and 5. One earns £25,000. They rent privately for £9,600 a year, pay £1,800 in council tax and claim Universal Credit. - **Pensioner on Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction:** aged 72, on the full new State Pension (£13,036 in 2027-28). They rent from the council for £7,800 a year and pay £1,600 in council tax. Their income exceeds the Pension Credit guarantee, so they get no Pension Credit. Their net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment. -The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel exceeded £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today. +The model uses fixed pump prices below those of October 2026, when diesel exceeded £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today. ### Projections, prices and coverage @@ -529,7 +529,7 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe ### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR -PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The government's estimate appears in the OBR's policy table as fuel duty receipts only, −£574 million and −£782 million, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The OBR used it but could not certify it: small changes were made to the policy after the OBR's certification deadline, and the OBR will finalise the certification at its next forecast (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, chapter 3, footnote 1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel made available for use in the UK, which includes fuel that businesses buy, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the government's estimate gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. +PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The government's estimate appears in the OBR's policy table as fuel duty receipts only, −£574 million and −£782 million, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The OBR used it but could not certify it: the policy changed slightly after the OBR's certification deadline, and the OBR will finalise the certification at its next forecast (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, chapter 3, footnote 1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel made available for use in the UK, which includes fuel that businesses buy, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the government's estimate gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. ### Assumptions and limitations diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 3704aa10d..181f9db55 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and £13,319 in 2027-28. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners and on the population, using PolicyEngine UK. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income falls between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and £13,319 in 2027-28. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners and on the population, using PolicyEngine UK. Key figures for 2027-28: @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: -1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. +1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person, who cannot transfer it to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. In 2027-28, 20% of £466.40 (£13,036.40 − £12,570) is £93.28, rounded up to £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". 3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings, dividends and benefits that replace earnings. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. @@ -43,7 +43,7 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives t | Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186 | £123 | £44 | £79 | | Private pension | £13,400 | £166 | £0 | £166 | -A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,319 and gets no PTA. +A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income tax without the PTA. The £94 PTA exceeds that amount, so it removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,319 and gets no PTA. ### Net income and other benefits @@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of ex A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so household 5 is £180 worse off. This happens from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. -A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax, so the PTA does not change it, but it counts earnings after income tax, so it falls by 55p for each £1 of PTA on earnings. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. +A couple with one partner under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax, so the PTA does not change it, but it counts earnings after income tax, so it falls by 55p for each £1 of PTA on earnings. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. ### The PTA in each tax year @@ -962,14 +962,14 @@ The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then ### Projections for 2028-29 and 2029-30 -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows uprate the 2027-28 weekly rate of £250.70 by the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round to the nearest 5p, as DWP's published rates are, and take 52 weeks: £259.20 and £265.70 a week. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. Under this reading, a pensioner on the full new State Pension pays no income tax in each year, in line with the Budget's statement that such pensioners "will not be brought into paying tax because of State Pension uprating in this Parliament". +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows uprate the 2027-28 weekly rate of £250.70 by the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round to the nearest 5p, like DWP's published rates, and take 52 weeks: £259.20 and £265.70 a week. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. Under this reading, a pensioner on the full new State Pension pays no income tax in each year, in line with the Budget's statement that such pensioners "will not be brought into paying tax because of State Pension uprating in this Parliament". ### Household definitions - Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. All reached State Pension age after 6 April 2016, so none can get the Savings Credit part of Pension Credit. A claimant aged 75 or over who gets Savings Credit, such as a woman aged 76, keeps Pension Credit and the free TV licence, and gains from the PTA. Households 1 to 3 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. - Households 6 to 8 are couples aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. In households 6 and 7, the older partner has the full new State Pension; in household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. - Household 9 is the calculator's "pensioner on the full State Pension": aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. The calculator takes the full new State Pension as £13,036.97, the model's weekly rate without rounding, so it shows total income of £13,187; its other figures for this household round to the same pounds. -- Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. All households are in the North West of England. +- Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. All households live in the North West of England. - For household 5, the loss assumes that the household needs a TV licence. Leaving Pension Credit can also end other help that the model does not include, such as the £150 Warm Home Discount in Great Britain, so the loss can be larger. - Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66). A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. @@ -987,7 +987,7 @@ The population results use PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK househo ### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR -The Treasury's costing (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52) is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. The OBR's detailed policy table records the PTA's income tax at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million, and no benefit spending. Small Scottish and departmental spending lines take its total to −£47 million, −£88 million and −£152 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). That the OBR's income tax equals PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. The explainer states that about 290,000 of the 500,000 pensioners who pay less income tax in 2027-28 will pay none. +The Treasury's costing (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52) uses a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. The OBR's detailed policy table records the PTA's income tax at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million, and no benefit spending. Small Scottish and departmental spending lines take its total to −£47 million, −£88 million and −£152 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). That the OBR's income tax equals PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. The explainer states that about 290,000 of the 500,000 pensioners who pay less income tax in 2027-28 will pay none. ### Assumptions and limitations From c0f6e12490df5950aa85de90484e707b3fde8af7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:29:53 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] Active voice: review follow-ups in the fuel duty and PTA posts These are the independent review's non-blocking suggestions on #1479, all wording only. They fix PTA line 16's stiff "who" clause, swap "uses" on line 990 for a word not used four times, and turn reduced passives and "be + worth" into active verbs. No figures, links or citations change. Fuel duty post: lines 512 and 549. PTA post: lines 16, 32, 738, 978 and 990. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 4 ++-- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 10 +++++----- 2 files changed, 7 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index aac51f1d1..bc02fb324 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -509,7 +509,7 @@ The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This rate counts PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. The government's estimate uses fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. -Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. All three households in the net income table live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region, and use 1,000 litres of fuel a year. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. +Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, including the VAT change on fuel. All three households in the net income table live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region, and use 1,000 litres of fuel a year. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. - **Single adult:** aged 40, with a £30,000 salary and no benefits. - **Couple with two children on Universal Credit:** both aged 35, with children aged 8 and 5. One earns £25,000. They rent privately for £9,600 a year, pay £1,800 in council tax and claim Universal Credit. @@ -546,6 +546,6 @@ The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliamen We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast: we build each household as a PolicyEngine UK simulation with the dashboard's forecast scenario, applied before data load, and add the measure to the same scenario. The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. In those simulations, the VAT step lowers the household's `vat` by that amount, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`, as the dashboard's VAT modifier does. We use the rates, dates and VAT treatment of the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres, computed from the rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at each point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. In those simulations, the VAT step lowers the household's `vat` by that amount, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`, as the dashboard's VAT modifier does. We use the rates, dates and VAT treatment of the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; we compute each point from the rules and check it against PolicyEngine UK. The population results come from a run of the dashboard's measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 181f9db55..9ee0d43c6 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: -1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person, who cannot transfer it to a partner. +1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. Each person has their own PTA and cannot transfer it to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. In 2027-28, 20% of £466.40 (£13,036.40 − £12,570) is £93.28, rounded up to £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". 3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings, dividends and benefits that replace earnings. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. @@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30, and HMRC a ## Household impacts -This section shows the PTA's effect on example pensioners in 2027-28, unless stated. The appendix defines each household. +This section shows the PTA's effect on example pensioners in 2027-28, unless it names another year. The appendix defines each household. ### Worked examples @@ -735,7 +735,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls b ## Population impacts -We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs (see the appendix). +We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, with the same set-up as the runs for PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard (see the appendix). ### Budgetary impact @@ -975,7 +975,7 @@ The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the S ### Income taxed above 20% -Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay. This Budget raises the basic rate on property income to 24% from April 2027 (22% before it). At 24%, a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £18 with the PTA, down from £112. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on income in the withdrawal range, so the effective marginal tax rate there is 52.3%, from about £13,047 of total income, where Scottish income tax first exceeds the PTA. +Because the full PTA equals 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay. This Budget raises the basic rate on property income to 24% from April 2027 (22% before it). At 24%, a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £18 with the PTA, down from £112. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on income in the withdrawal range, so the effective marginal tax rate there is 52.3%, from about £13,047 of total income, where Scottish income tax first exceeds the PTA. ### Charts @@ -987,7 +987,7 @@ The population results use PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK househo ### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR -The Treasury's costing (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52) uses a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. The OBR's detailed policy table records the PTA's income tax at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million, and no benefit spending. Small Scottish and departmental spending lines take its total to −£47 million, −£88 million and −£152 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). That the OBR's income tax equals PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. The explainer states that about 290,000 of the 500,000 pensioners who pay less income tax in 2027-28 will pay none. +The Treasury's costing (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52) follows a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. The OBR's detailed policy table records the PTA's income tax at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million, and no benefit spending. Small Scottish and departmental spending lines take its total to −£47 million, −£88 million and −£152 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). That the OBR's income tax equals PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. The explainer states that about 290,000 of the 500,000 pensioners who pay less income tax in 2027-28 will pay none. ### Assumptions and limitations From d6c9675ac5707b5b38aad1e2450617f8d14c77ca Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 17:35:53 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] Review fixes: PTA rounding on line 978, VAT clause on fuel line 512 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit PTA line 978 now says the full PTA is 20% of the gap "rounded up to the pound", as line 17 states (£93.28 rounds up to £94), so "equals" holds exactly. On fuel line 512, the VAT change gets its own clause so it no longer reads as one of the modelled duties. Wording only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 2 +- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 2 files changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index bc02fb324..d4f278ce5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -509,7 +509,7 @@ The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This rate counts PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. The government's estimate uses fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. -Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, including the VAT change on fuel. All three households in the net income table live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region, and use 1,000 litres of fuel a year. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. +Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties; it also counts the VAT change on fuel. All three households in the net income table live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region, and use 1,000 litres of fuel a year. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. - **Single adult:** aged 40, with a £30,000 salary and no benefits. - **Couple with two children on Universal Credit:** both aged 35, with children aged 8 and 5. One earns £25,000. They rent privately for £9,600 a year, pay £1,800 in council tax and claim Universal Credit. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 9ee0d43c6..b4c31fca5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -975,7 +975,7 @@ The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the S ### Income taxed above 20% -Because the full PTA equals 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay. This Budget raises the basic rate on property income to 24% from April 2027 (22% before it). At 24%, a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £18 with the PTA, down from £112. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on income in the withdrawal range, so the effective marginal tax rate there is 52.3%, from about £13,047 of total income, where Scottish income tax first exceeds the PTA. +Because the full PTA equals 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay. This Budget raises the basic rate on property income to 24% from April 2027 (22% before it). At 24%, a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £18 with the PTA, down from £112. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on income in the withdrawal range, so the effective marginal tax rate there is 52.3%, from about £13,047 of total income, where Scottish income tax first exceeds the PTA. ### Charts