From 79f76171d6592f5babbba993cf7f512568416a81 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:10:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 01/68] Add blog post: the Pension Tax Allowance, step by step A household-level explainer of the Budget 2026 Pension Tax Allowance: the rules from HM Treasury's explainer, the five worked examples reproduced in PolicyEngine UK, three charts (income tax, the allowance by tax year, marginal rates) and the Pension Credit interaction. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp | Bin 0 -> 60636 bytes .../pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp | Bin 0 -> 54432 bytes .../3-marginal-rate.webp | Bin 0 -> 57340 bytes .../posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp | Bin 0 -> 60636 bytes .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 91 ++++++++++++++++++ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 9 ++ 6 files changed, 100 insertions(+) create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/3-marginal-rate.webp create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp new file mode 100644 index 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zKBVnJEd}96S@75qtXlq^!L@hijtPj)e^V|mtcO`deiME22r58Y%0g&1md*13;rMr> zEK!+oL%Tgwz8Lo7HuiZ9R>Dj&0IQhmZ0hD?AOIEg=3;t=ro3==q%;Wu<{uEG$}#j8onz#&-thK4&RM^{I*{*@wHtBANT%J8)*bf}hp%jI9Ch;SgnwzS+lSOQPkF9h ztMq-0j{ZOrZDaWa>fuHB)kK(fPc0zMX&3w`k4he`nTN2r_!dpaUSES#9e{g;SL(>%Zyv2D=XZs0 zOh+8^o#wC)*|&bC2?obvc_F& Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:19:08 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 02/68] Draw the Pension Tax Allowance post's charts as line chart blocks MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit New posts draw charts as ```chart blocks (chart-standards.md), and the website had no line type, so this adds one: BlogLineChart.tsx draws series against a numeric x axis, with optional step series and labelled vertical markers, using ui-kit's axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles and the chart color tokens. blogChartUtils gains a thousands separator, a niceTicks option that leaves zero out of the range, and validFormat for the x axis format. The post's three charts become line blocks built from the PTA rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at every £2 of income. The text follows the review of the dashboard's modifier (#290 at 1df76b8d): 2028-29's State Pension is rounded down to 5p a week (£13,361.40), tax starts at £13,037.75, the uprating reading is stated, and Scottish taxpayers, the full costing and the adjusted triple lock rule are added. The cover is a new title card. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp | Bin 60636 -> 0 bytes .../pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp | Bin 54432 -> 0 bytes .../3-marginal-rate.webp | Bin 57340 -> 0 bytes .../posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp | Bin 60636 -> 44390 bytes .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 299 ++++++++++++++++-- .../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 135 ++++++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx | 9 +- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 269 ++++++++++++++++ website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts | 39 ++- 9 files changed, 719 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/1-income-tax.webp delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/2-pta-value.webp delete mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/3-marginal-rate.webp create mode 100644 website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx create mode 100644 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zKBVnJEd}96S@75qtXlq^!L@hijtPj)e^V|mtcO`deiME22r58Y%0g&1md*13;rMr> zEK!+oL%Tgwz8Lo7HuiZ9R>Dj&0IQhmZ0hD?AOIEg=3;t=ro3==q%;Wu<{uEG$}#j8onz#&-thK4&RM^{I*{*@wHtBANT%J8)*bf}hp%jI9Ch;SgnwzS+lSOQPkF9h ztMq-0j{ZOrZDaWa>fuHB)kK(fPc0zMX&3w`k4he`nTN2r_!dpaUSES#9e{g;SL(>%Zyv2D=XZs0 zOh+8^o#wC)*|&bC2?obvc_F& { + const mod = await importOriginal(); + return { + ...mod, + ResponsiveContainer: ({ + children, + height, + }: { + children: ReactElement<{ width?: number; height?: number }>; + height?: number | string; + }) => + cloneElement(children, { + width: 600, + height: typeof height === "number" ? height : 240, + }), + }; +}); + +const SPEC = { + type: "line", + title: "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + xKey: "income", + xLabel: "Total income", + series: [ + { key: "baseline", name: "Without the allowance", color: "quinary" }, + { key: "reform", name: "With the allowance", color: "primary" }, + ], + data: [ + { income: 12000, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 12570, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13036.4, baseline: 93.28, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13800, baseline: 246, reform: 246 }, + ], + markers: [{ x: 12570, label: "Personal Allowance" }], + format: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + xFormat: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + source: "PolicyEngine UK", +}; + +const parse = (spec: unknown) => parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify(spec)); + +describe("line chart spec", () => { + test("a valid spec parses as a line chart", () => { + expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test("a step series parses", () => { + const spec = { + ...SPEC, + series: [{ key: "reform", name: "Rate", step: true }], + }; + expect(parse(spec)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test.each([ + ["x values out of order", { data: [...SPEC.data].reverse() }], + [ + "a row missing a series value", + { data: [...SPEC.data.slice(0, 3), { income: 13800, baseline: 246 }] }, + ], + [ + "a string x value", + { data: [{ ...SPEC.data[0], income: "low" }, SPEC.data[1]] }, + ], + ["one data row", { data: [SPEC.data[0]] }], + ["a marker without a label", { markers: [{ x: 12570 }] }], + [ + "a non-boolean step", + { series: [{ key: "reform", name: "R", step: "yes" }] }, + ], + ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }], + ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }], + ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull(); + }); +}); + +describe("line chart rendering", () => { + test("renders the title, series names, marker label and source", () => { + render(); + expect( + screen.getByText("Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28"), + ).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Without the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("With the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Personal Allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("PolicyEngine UK")).toBeInTheDocument(); + }); + + test("an invalid spec renders nothing", () => { + const { container } = render( + , + ); + expect(container).toBeEmptyDOMElement(); + }); +}); + +describe("chart helpers", () => { + test("the separator groups thousands", () => { + expect( + formatChartValue(13036.4, { prefix: "£", decimals: 2, separator: true }), + ).toBe("£13,036.40"); + expect(formatChartValue(-1234567, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe( + "−1,234,567", + ); + expect(formatChartValue(999, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe("999"); + }); + + test("without the separator, values stay ungrouped", () => { + expect(formatChartValue(13036, { decimals: 0 })).toBe("13036"); + }); + + test("niceTicks can leave zero out of the range", () => { + const axis = niceTicks([12000, 13800], 6, false); + expect(axis.domain[0]).toBeGreaterThan(0); + expect(axis.ticks[0]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(12000); + expect(axis.ticks.at(-1)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(13800); + }); + + test("niceTicks includes zero by default", () => { + expect(niceTicks([12000, 13800]).domain[0]).toBe(0); + }); +}); diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx index d2bd74c1e..5f0be9873 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx @@ -9,8 +9,8 @@ * Posts carry data, not styling. Styles are inline token variables because * the website's Tailwind build uses a prefix that ui-kit's utility classes lack. * - * Types: "bar" (below), "waterfall" (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" - * (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and + * Types: "bar" (below), "line" (BlogLineChart.tsx), "waterfall" + * (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and * "source"; an invalid spec renders nothing. * * Spec (type "bar"): @@ -58,6 +58,7 @@ import { niceTicks, validSharedFields, } from "./blogChartUtils"; +import { type BlogLineSpec, LineBody, parseLineSpec } from "./BlogLineChart"; import { type BlogStateMapSpec, StateMapBody, @@ -93,6 +94,7 @@ export interface BlogBarChartSpec { export type BlogChartSpec = | BlogBarChartSpec + | BlogLineSpec | BlogWaterfallSpec | BlogStateMapSpec; @@ -134,6 +136,8 @@ export function parseBlogChartSpec(raw: string): BlogChartSpec | null { switch (spec.type) { case "bar": return parseBarSpec(spec); + case "line": + return parseLineSpec(spec); case "waterfall": return parseWaterfallSpec(spec); case "stateMap": @@ -325,6 +329,7 @@ export function BlogChart({ data }: { data: string | string[] }) { return ( {spec.type === "bar" && } + {spec.type === "line" && } {spec.type === "waterfall" && } {spec.type === "stateMap" && } diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..f89d6aacb --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,269 @@ +"use client"; + +/** + * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line". + * + * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule + * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero, the + * x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value + * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers + * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the + * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. + * + * Spec: + * { + * "type": "line", + * "title": "...", "subtitle": "...", + * "xKey": "income", + * "xLabel": "Total income", + * "series": [ + * { "key": "baseline", "name": "Without the reform", "color": "quinary" }, + * { "key": "reform", "name": "With the reform", "color": "primary", "step": false } + * ], + * "data": [{ "income": 12000, "baseline": 0, "reform": 0 }, ...], + * "markers": [{ "x": 12570, "label": "Personal Allowance" }], + * "yLabel": "...", + * "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "source": "..." + * } + * + * Data rows must be sorted by x, and every row needs a number for every + * series, or the spec is rejected. + */ + +import { + AXIS_STYLE, + GRID_STYLE, + LEGEND_STYLE, + TOOLTIP_STYLE, +} from "@policyengine/ui-kit/charts"; +import { + CartesianGrid, + Legend, + Line, + LineChart, + ReferenceLine, + ResponsiveContainer, + Tooltip, + XAxis, + YAxis, +} from "recharts"; + +import { + type BlogChartFormat, + type BlogChartRow, + type ChartColorName, + chartColor, + formatChartValue, + isFiniteNumber, + isRecord, + niceTicks, + validFormat, +} from "./blogChartUtils"; + +export interface BlogLineSeries { + key: string; + name: string; + color?: ChartColorName; + step?: boolean; +} + +export interface BlogLineMarker { + x: number; + label: string; +} + +export interface BlogLineSpec { + type: "line"; + title?: string; + subtitle?: string; + xKey: string; + xLabel?: string; + series: BlogLineSeries[]; + data: BlogChartRow[]; + markers?: BlogLineMarker[]; + yLabel?: string; + format?: BlogChartFormat; + xFormat?: BlogChartFormat; + source?: string; + height?: number; +} + +export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null { + if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; + if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null; + if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null; + if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; + if ( + !s.series.every( + (x) => + isRecord(x) && + typeof x.key === "string" && + typeof x.name === "string" && + (x.step === undefined || typeof x.step === "boolean"), + ) + ) { + return null; + } + if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length < 2) return null; + const keys = (s.series as BlogLineSeries[]).map((x) => x.key); + const xKey = s.xKey; + let previous = -Infinity; + for (const row of s.data) { + if (!isRecord(row) || !isFiniteNumber(row[xKey])) return null; + if (row[xKey] < previous) return null; + previous = row[xKey]; + if (!keys.every((k) => isFiniteNumber(row[k]))) return null; + } + if ( + s.markers !== undefined && + !( + Array.isArray(s.markers) && + s.markers.every( + (m) => + isRecord(m) && isFiniteNumber(m.x) && typeof m.label === "string", + ) + ) + ) { + return null; + } + return s as unknown as BlogLineSpec; +} + +const MARKER_ROW_HEIGHT = 16; + +interface MarkerLabelProps { + viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number }; + value: string; + row: number; + anchor: "start" | "end"; +} + +/** A marker's label beside its line: right of it in the left half of the + * plot, left of it in the right half. */ +function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { + const x = Number(viewBox?.x); + const y = Number(viewBox?.y); + if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null; + return ( + + {value} + + ); +} + +export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { + const format = spec.format ?? {}; + const xFormat = spec.xFormat ?? {}; + const xs = spec.data.map((row) => row[spec.xKey] as number); + const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) => + spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number), + ); + const yAxis = niceTicks(values); + const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false); + const xMin = Math.min(...xs); + const xMax = Math.max(...xs); + const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax); + const yTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); + const xTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals }); + + return ( + + + + + + {(spec.markers ?? []).map((m, i) => ( + ( + + )} + /> + ))} + formatChartValue(Number(x), xFormat)} + formatter={(value, name) => [ + formatChartValue(Number(value), format), + String(name), + ]} + /> + + {spec.series.map((s, i) => ( + + ))} + + + ); +} diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts index 643b3c0bf..aed48956f 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts +++ b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts @@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ export interface BlogChartFormat { prefix?: string; suffix?: string; signed?: boolean; + /** Group thousands with commas, as in £13,036. */ + separator?: boolean; } export type BlogChartRow = Record; @@ -30,24 +32,36 @@ export function formatChartValue( value: number, format: BlogChartFormat = {}, ): string { - const { decimals = 1, prefix = "", suffix = "", signed = false } = format; + const { + decimals = 1, + prefix = "", + suffix = "", + signed = false, + separator = false, + } = format; const digits = Math.min(MAX_DECIMALS, Math.max(0, Math.round(decimals))); - const magnitude = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); - const isZero = Number(magnitude) === 0; + const fixed = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); + const magnitude = separator + ? fixed.replace(/^\d+/, (whole) => whole.replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+$)/g, ",")) + : fixed; + const isZero = Number(fixed) === 0; const sign = value < 0 && !isZero ? "−" : signed && !isZero ? "+" : ""; return `${sign}${prefix}${magnitude}${suffix}`; } /** * Round the value range out to a step of 1, 2, 2.5 or 5 times a power of ten, - * including zero, so tick labels land on round numbers. + * including zero unless `includeZero` is false, so tick labels land on round + * numbers. */ export function niceTicks( values: number[], target = 4, + includeZero = true, ): { domain: [number, number]; ticks: number[]; decimals: number } { - const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), 0); - const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), 0); + const seed = includeZero || values.length === 0 ? 0 : values[0]; + const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), seed); + const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), seed); // A span under 1e-9 gets a unit axis: a smaller step underflows, or needs // more decimals than toFixed allows. const span = hi - lo >= 1e-9 ? hi - lo : 1; @@ -90,10 +104,16 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { if (s.height !== undefined && !(isFiniteNumber(s.height) && s.height > 0)) { return false; } - const { format } = s; + return validFormat(s.format); +} + +/** An optional BlogChartFormat with every field of the right type. */ +export function validFormat(format: unknown): boolean { + const optionalString = (v: unknown) => + v === undefined || typeof v === "string"; if (format === undefined) return true; if (!isRecord(format)) return false; - const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed } = format; + const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed, separator } = format; return ( (decimals === undefined || (Number.isInteger(decimals) && @@ -101,7 +121,8 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { (decimals as number) <= MAX_DECIMALS)) && optionalString(prefix) && optionalString(suffix) && - (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") + (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") && + (separator === undefined || typeof separator === "boolean") ); } From e3df3c52b22c1e6db9f176978e4e08e66cfea3be Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:23:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 03/68] Add a net income change chart and put the PTA by tax year first MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The Pension Credit section gets a line chart of the change in household net income in 2027-28 for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit and one who does not. Its breakpoints come from the PTA rules and PolicyEngine UK's £12,660.62 minimum guarantee, and agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of income. "The PTA in each tax year" now comes before "Income tax by total income". Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 259 ++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 173 insertions(+), 86 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index e6afae06f..2a1a231f5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -43,94 +43,10 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reprodu Steph's tax of £93.28 is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes her full tax bill. Jonathan's income is £150 above the full new State Pension, so his PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. Nadia's income is above £13,318.40, so she gets no PTA. -## Income tax by total income +## The PTA in each tax year The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pension of £11,000 and a private pension. Total income changes with the private pension. -```chart -{ - "type": "line", - "title": "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax by total income, with and without the Pension Tax Allowance", - "xKey": "income", - "xLabel": "Total income", - "series": [ - { - "key": "without", - "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary" - }, - { - "key": "with", - "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary" - } - ], - "data": [ - { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 12570, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13036.4, - "without": 93.28, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13037.75, - "without": 93.55, - "with": 0.0 - }, - { - "income": 13318.4, - "without": 149.68, - "with": 149.68 - }, - { - "income": 13500, - "without": 186.0, - "with": 186.0 - } - ], - "markers": [ - { - "x": 12570, - "label": "Personal Allowance" - }, - { - "x": 13036.4, - "label": "Full new State Pension" - }, - { - "x": 13318.4, - "label": "PTA withdrawn" - } - ], - "yLabel": "Income tax", - "format": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true - }, - "xFormat": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true - }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." -} -``` - -Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. - -## The PTA in each tax year - ```chart { "type": "line", @@ -246,6 +162,90 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. +## Income tax by total income + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Income tax by total income, with and without the Pension Tax Allowance", + "xKey": "income", + "xLabel": "Total income", + "series": [ + { + "key": "without", + "name": "Without the PTA", + "color": "quinary" + }, + { + "key": "with", + "name": "With the PTA", + "color": "primary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "income": 12500, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12570, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13036.4, + "without": 93.28, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13037.75, + "without": 93.55, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13318.4, + "without": 149.68, + "with": 149.68 + }, + { + "income": 13500, + "without": 186.0, + "with": 186.0 + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" + }, + { + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" + }, + { + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" + } + ], + "yLabel": "Income tax", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." +} +``` + +Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. + ## Marginal tax rates ```chart @@ -330,7 +330,94 @@ The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12, Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,661 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income between £12,570 and about £12,680 receives the PTA but no net income gain. The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so this range extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. People who do not claim Pension Credit keep the full PTA. +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Change in net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income from the Pension Tax Allowance", + "xKey": "income", + "xLabel": "Total income", + "series": [ + { + "key": "no_pc", + "name": "Does not claim Pension Credit", + "color": "primary" + }, + { + "key": "claims_pc", + "name": "Claims Pension Credit", + "color": "secondary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "income": 12400, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12570, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12660.62, + "no_pc": 18.12, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12683.27, + "no_pc": 22.65, + "claims_pc": 22.65 + }, + { + "income": 13037.75, + "no_pc": 93.55, + "claims_pc": 93.55 + }, + { + "income": 13318.4, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500, + "no_pc": 0.0, + "claims_pc": 0.0 + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" + }, + { + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" + }, + { + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" + } + ], + "yLabel": "Change in net income", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." +} +``` + +The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. ## Assumptions and limitations From 63edc5d042155f1827eb8852618ab8b4649bcc14 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:25:19 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 04/68] Describe the worked examples by income, without the explainer's names Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 18 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 9 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 2a1a231f5..f31c6c457 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -33,15 +33,15 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reproduces each result. -| Person | Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | -| -------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | -| Tom | Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Anne | Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970.00 | £80.00 | £80.00 | £0.00 | -| Steph | Full new State Pension only | £13,036.40 | £93.28 | £93.28 | £0.00 | -| Jonathan | Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | -| Nadia | Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | +| Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | +| ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | +| Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970.00 | £80.00 | £80.00 | £0.00 | +| Full new State Pension only | £13,036.40 | £93.28 | £93.28 | £0.00 | +| Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | +| Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | -Steph's tax of £93.28 is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes her full tax bill. Jonathan's income is £150 above the full new State Pension, so his PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. Nadia's income is above £13,318.40, so she gets no PTA. +A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,318.40 and gets no PTA. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -426,7 +426,7 @@ The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. The PTA reduces the tax bill after other allowances; for people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the order of steps may differ from the legislation, which the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set out. - The Pension Credit results assume that the person claims Pension Credit when eligible. -- For Nadia, the explainer's £166 treats all her income as taxable at 20%. We model her income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce her tax. +- For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%. We model the income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From cc8f085081f7b9dc94a3c1fdafcb22241f37403f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:26:02 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 05/68] Use the Chancellor's official portrait as the post's cover Official parliamentary portrait of John Healey by Richard Townshend (UK Parliament, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons), cropped to 16:9 and credited in imageCredit. 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zkZ`*0xro)-qHW%rr_z!^DDZ6<5w8W|?&9ko2h5EQt-6^$ru;f-#HIbelI_&QH?#&3 zm~#DtY&U#0AJ8N0mh?;gTz}0CM)5VfEUBRrZm1Wrwud}VkE|5Hsn<=%V_aMs;f^PF z$(;j%{E&c9anjQ~WTcuH=;J(Jo5ZSRd4BzT0s~S8G`FvUbp_4RVsyl+Vqc1Zp9Fgu z?arK^x8cw&c!o9H(pEa@7f-?;q_V0jsp)ahJli9F`dT47<*NJ}3gd=z2AgD=?SY4q z=M*R~2#sw1Ln$?l58P$D7BJYd5|LKH{27x+bef{w5~|)I!pqQB&prmWou-W-nwmAq1?H;CuP|`yWdeFM0p~ diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4af8acee9..4faadc497 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -6,7 +6,8 @@ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], "filename": "pension-tax-allowance.md", - "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp" + "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp", + "imageCredit": "Richard Townshend, UK Parliament (CC BY 3.0)" }, { "title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency", From ff7bc602e169840f9947be67ec734624f5b56ba0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:28:12 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 06/68] Show net income with and without the PTA, not the change The Pension Credit section's chart now plots household net income for a claimant with and without the PTA, like the income tax and marginal rate charts. Line charts gain "yIncludesZero": false, which fits the y axis to levels far from zero. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 49 ++++++++++--------- .../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 5 ++ website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 11 +++-- 3 files changed, 38 insertions(+), 27 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index f31c6c457..c0cd2d180 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -330,62 +330,62 @@ The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12, Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The chart below shows household net income for a claimant, with and without the PTA. Net income here also includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Change in net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Change in household net income from the Pension Tax Allowance", + "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { - "key": "no_pc", - "name": "Does not claim Pension Credit", - "color": "primary" + "key": "without", + "name": "Without the PTA", + "color": "quinary" }, { - "key": "claims_pc", - "name": "Claims Pension Credit", - "color": "secondary" + "key": "with", + "name": "With the PTA", + "color": "primary" } ], "data": [ { "income": 12400, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12570, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12660.62, - "no_pc": 18.12, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12683.27, - "no_pc": 22.65, - "claims_pc": 22.65 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12703.27 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "no_pc": 93.55, - "claims_pc": 93.55 + "without": 12964.2, + "with": 13057.75 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 13188.72, + "with": 13188.72 }, { "income": 13500, - "no_pc": 0.0, - "claims_pc": 0.0 + "without": 13334.0, + "with": 13334.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -402,7 +402,8 @@ In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Change in net income", + "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx index 2da4219f6..8cd33eef5 100644 --- a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx +++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx @@ -56,6 +56,10 @@ describe("line chart spec", () => { expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line"); }); + test("yIncludesZero false parses", () => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, yIncludesZero: false })?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + test("a step series parses", () => { const spec = { ...SPEC, @@ -82,6 +86,7 @@ describe("line chart spec", () => { ], ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }], ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }], + ["a non-boolean yIncludesZero", { yIncludesZero: "no" }], ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => { expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull(); }); diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index f89d6aacb..ce9e9a431 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line". * * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule - * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero, the - * x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value + * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero + * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. @@ -84,6 +84,8 @@ export interface BlogLineSpec { data: BlogChartRow[]; markers?: BlogLineMarker[]; yLabel?: string; + /** False fits the y axis to the data, for levels far from zero. */ + yIncludesZero?: boolean; format?: BlogChartFormat; xFormat?: BlogChartFormat; source?: string; @@ -94,6 +96,9 @@ export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null { if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null; if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null; + if (s.yIncludesZero !== undefined && typeof s.yIncludesZero !== "boolean") { + return null; + } if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; if ( !s.series.every( @@ -171,7 +176,7 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) => spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number), ); - const yAxis = niceTicks(values); + const yAxis = niceTicks(values, 4, spec.yIncludesZero ?? true); const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false); const xMin = Math.min(...xs); const xMax = Math.max(...xs); From bd7638074b2fd9bab469ccb171c1936420c5fd3e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:29:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 07/68] Size the line chart's y axis to its longest tick label Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 5 +++++ 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+) diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index ce9e9a431..1720f3a4e 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -183,6 +183,10 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax); const yTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); + // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title. + const yAxisWidth = + Math.max(...yAxis.ticks.map((t) => yTick(t).length)) * 7 + + (spec.yLabel ? 28 : 12); const xTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals }); @@ -214,6 +218,7 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { } /> Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:30:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 08/68] Move the net income chart between income tax and marginal rates Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 124 +++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 64 insertions(+), 60 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index c0cd2d180..7841a743b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -246,54 +246,64 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. -## Marginal tax rates +## Net income + +The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. Below £12,660.62, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,680.62 with or without the PTA. Above that, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", + "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { "key": "without", "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary", - "step": true + "color": "quinary" }, { "key": "with", "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary", - "step": true + "color": "primary" } ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, - "with": 0.0 + "income": 12400, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 }, { "income": 12570, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 0.0 + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 + }, + { + "income": 12660.62, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12680.62 + }, + { + "income": 12683.27, + "without": 12680.62, + "with": 12703.27 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 53.3 + "without": 12964.2, + "with": 13057.75 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 20.0 + "without": 13188.72, + "with": 13188.72 }, { "income": 13500, - "without": 20.0, - "with": 20.0 + "without": 13334.0, + "with": 13334.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -310,82 +320,70 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", + "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { - "suffix": "%", - "decimals": 1 + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." } ``` -The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. - -## Interaction with Pension Credit - -Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. - -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The chart below shows household net income for a claimant, with and without the PTA. Net income here also includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. +## Marginal tax rates ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ { "key": "without", "name": "Without the PTA", - "color": "quinary" + "color": "quinary", + "step": true }, { "key": "with", "name": "With the PTA", - "color": "primary" + "color": "primary", + "step": true } ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 + "income": 12500, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 }, { "income": 12570, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 - }, - { - "income": 12660.62, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 - }, - { - "income": 12683.27, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12703.27 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 0.0 }, { "income": 13037.75, - "without": 12964.2, - "with": 13057.75 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 }, { "income": 13318.4, - "without": 13188.72, - "with": 13188.72 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 }, { "income": 13500, - "without": 13334.0, - "with": 13334.0 + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 } ], "markers": [ @@ -402,22 +400,28 @@ In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Household net income", - "yIncludesZero": false, + "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", "format": { - "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 0, - "separator": true + "suffix": "%", + "decimals": 1 }, "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` +The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. + +## Interaction with Pension Credit + +Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. + +In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The net income chart above shows this for a claimant. + The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. ## Assumptions and limitations From f789ce658f94af5a42dc0fd69f9d5a663601a39b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:36:47 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 09/68] Add blog post: the fuel duty cut extension, step by step Explains the Budget 2026 fuel duty measure at household level: the 5p cut kept to 1 July 2027 and the RPI rise deferred to the same date. Charts are chart blocks (a bar chart of the rate by period and a line chart of the saving by litres), checked against PolicyEngine UK. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 197 ++++++++++++++++++ app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 10 + 2 files changed, 207 insertions(+) create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..182adcf27 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -0,0 +1,197 @@ +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor extended the temporary 5p-per-litre cut in fuel duty to 1 July 2027 and deferred the planned Retail Prices Index (RPI) increase to the same date. This post explains how the change moves the duty on each litre of petrol and diesel, and what it means for example households, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. + +Key figures: + +- The main rate of fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre until 30 June 2027. Before the Budget, it was due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027, 57.95p on 1 March 2027 and 60.59p on 1 April 2027. +- On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p, the rate that the pre-Budget plans set for that date. From then on, the rate is the same as before the Budget. +- Including the 20% VAT charged on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. +- A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year pays £33.71 less in total: £12.17 in 2026-27 and £21.54 in 2027-28. +- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 3). + +## What the Budget changes + +Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the government cut it by 5p in March 2022. The cut was due to end in steps: under the rates in force before the Budget, the duty was 52.95p to 31 December 2026, 55.95p from 1 January 2027 and 57.95p from 1 March 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)). Government policy then added RPI uprating from 1 April 2027, which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts at 60.59p. + +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) states that the government "is cancelling plans to add 5p back onto fuel duty from January 2027 and is extending the cut by a further six months to 1 July 2027", and "is also deferring the planned Retail Prices Index (RPI) increase to 1 July 2027." HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out the rates that follow: + +> On 1 July 2027, fuel duty rates will increase by 5ppl and will be uprated in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI). From 1 April 2028, fuel duty rates will be uprated annually in line with RPI. + +The OBR's [Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/) (October 2026, paragraph 3.19) gives the result: fuel duty rises "from 52.95 pence per litre to 60.59 pence per litre" on 1 July 2027. + +| Period | Days | Rate before the Budget | Rate after the Budget | Duty saved a litre | Duty and VAT saved a litre | +| ----------------------------- | ---- | ---------------------- | --------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | +| To 31 December 2026 | – | 52.95p | 52.95p | 0p | 0p | +| 1 January to 28 February 2027 | 59 | 55.95p | 52.95p | 3.00p | 3.60p | +| 1 to 31 March 2027 | 31 | 57.95p | 52.95p | 5.00p | 6.00p | +| 1 April to 30 June 2027 | 91 | 60.59p | 52.95p | 7.64p | 9.17p | +| From 1 July 2027 | – | 60.59p | 60.59p | 0p | 0p | + +VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty, so each penny of duty adds 1.2p to the price of a litre. A driver who fills a 50-litre tank pays £1.80 less in January or February 2027, £3.00 less in March 2027 and £4.58 less between April and June 2027, if retailers pass the change on in full. + +The same rates apply to petrol and diesel. In areas with the [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) of 5p a litre, the rates are 5p lower both before and after the Budget, so the saving a litre is the same. + +```chart +{ + "type": "bar", + "title": "Main fuel duty rate before and after the Budget", + "subtitle": "Pence per litre of petrol or diesel, before VAT", + "xKey": "period", + "series": [ + { + "key": "before", + "name": "Before the Budget", + "color": "quinary" + }, + { + "key": "after", + "name": "After the Budget", + "color": "primary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "period": "Oct to Dec 2026", + "before": 52.95, + "after": 52.95 + }, + { + "period": "Jan to Feb 2027", + "before": 55.95, + "after": 52.95 + }, + { + "period": "Mar 2027", + "before": 57.95, + "after": 52.95 + }, + { + "period": "Apr to Jun 2027", + "before": 60.59, + "after": 52.95 + }, + { + "period": "Jul 2027 to Mar 2028", + "before": 60.59, + "after": 60.59 + } + ], + "yLabel": "Pence per litre", + "format": { + "decimals": 2, + "suffix": "p" + }, + "source": "Source: SI 2026/164 as amended by SI 2026/555; HM Treasury, Budget 2026 policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, paragraph 3.19." +} +``` + +## Worked examples + +The examples below are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or diesel a year, spread evenly over each tax year. 1,000 litres is about 19 litres a week. Tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, as in PolicyEngine UK, so 2026-27 includes January to March 2027 and 2027-28 includes April to June 2027. + +| Fuel use a year | Fuel duty saved | VAT saved | Total saved, 2026-27 | Total saved, 2027-28 | Total saved | +| --------------- | --------------- | --------- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ----------- | +| 500 litres | £14.05 | £2.81 | £6.09 | £10.77 | £16.86 | +| 1,000 litres | £28.09 | £5.62 | £12.17 | £21.54 | £33.71 | +| 2,000 litres | £56.19 | £11.24 | £24.34 | £43.08 | £67.43 | + +For the household that uses 1,000 litres a year, the duty in 2026-27 falls by £10.14: 2.74 litres a day for 59 days at 3p, 31 days at 5p and 5 days at 7.64p. VAT on that duty falls by £2.03, so the total is £12.17. In 2027-28, the household saves 86 days at 7.64p, which is £17.95 of duty and £3.59 of VAT, or £21.54. Totals may not add because of rounding. + +The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. + +```chart +{ + "type": "line", + "title": "Saving from the fuel duty measure by fuel use", + "subtitle": "Lower fuel duty and VAT for a petrol or diesel car, by tax year", + "xKey": "litres", + "xLabel": "Litres of fuel a year", + "series": [ + { + "key": "total", + "name": "Both years", + "color": "primary" + }, + { + "key": "y2027", + "name": "2027-28", + "color": "secondary" + }, + { + "key": "y2026", + "name": "2026-27", + "color": "tertiary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "litres": 0, + "total": 0.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2026": 0.0 + }, + { + "litres": 500, + "total": 16.86, + "y2027": 10.77, + "y2026": 6.09 + }, + { + "litres": 1000, + "total": 33.71, + "y2027": 21.54, + "y2026": 12.17 + }, + { + "litres": 1500, + "total": 50.57, + "y2027": 32.31, + "y2026": 18.26 + }, + { + "litres": 2000, + "total": 67.43, + "y2027": 43.08, + "y2026": 24.34 + }, + { + "litres": 2500, + "total": 84.28, + "y2027": 53.86, + "y2026": 30.43 + } + ], + "markers": [ + { + "x": 1000, + "label": "1,000 litres" + } + ], + "yLabel": "Saving", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "xFormat": { + "decimals": 0, + "separator": true + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026 policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026." +} +``` + +## Assumptions and limitations + +- The analysis covers example households in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs above come from HM Treasury. +- The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. +- We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. +- The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is the OBR's RPI-uprated figure. The government had not set it in law. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so the RPI forecast does not change the results. +- The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. + +The Budget states that the government's decisions on fuel duty in this Parliament "are expected to have saved the average car driver £230" compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024 against a different baseline, so it does not compare with the figures in this post, which cover only the Budget 2026 measure. + +## Methodology + +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with the OBR's 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. + +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value at 500-litre steps; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4faadc497..d08b9bfec 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,4 +1,14 @@ [ + { + "title": "The fuel duty cut extension, step by step", + "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre until 1 July 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", + "date": "2026-10-28 19:00:00", + "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], + "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], + "filename": "fuel-duty-cut-extension.md", + "image": "fuel-duty-cut-extension/cover.webp", + "imageCredit": "David Howard, Geograph (CC BY-SA 2.0)" + }, { "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance, step by step", "description": "From April 2027, pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension pay no income tax. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work for example pensioners, and how it interacts with Pension Credit.", From 0f55038435e15e0fc67525f3f775390f2aad0d86 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:37:46 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 10/68] Use a Geograph photo of petrol pumps as the fuel duty post's cover David Howard, "Petrol pumps at Tesco, Brent Cross", CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons; cropped to 16:9, metadata removed. 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The cover is a PolicyEngine title card of the rate path, so it needs no photo credit. 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z2ole0>xO%VMK(J`#-&+dL~@;&@5RA>0SAVz7a}7+=(D67)lY@I%IlUCbrh5;!SpIL zR(-))y^dek)?H?TpR;>k)E6RFKCeEgA74pB@t~zm|5*a8D6)giQtfd69AU0j^yK*^ z3+RV!&kjmb8{~6`Uw{frvj>D|w_PuXqYY<_vTT|WF!ll5_x7FysB$bFodAG!Y4;yn zglzuKF%D6q3e_HG;F7L;A2)k(SK02lvVAt1mfJDJ$4)JuCF~M7^JmFv&%-vzYJk-iN)hT^*G4?}u`AgS?&vW48@f)Nar+zLE+f%yPb~s(i68fgc=-gt zkP@G_a;=k)>F-_V4;_*mL6c8MfYHp3r*BL%q!+^E- zEecF*>YS1_wMTh4)(M+qum~b!Q%;kfB&@9ml!f*4=?Kk2DhaKoxVz o6rz|ePF(z?HbQQjB?(H-T9b!ir+fnu=G83lxmr_MgY5)KL diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 182adcf27..8da0eb4ea 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -180,6 +180,20 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi } ``` +## Net income and other benefits + +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources, plus benefits, less direct taxes, council tax and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. + +| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | +| --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | +| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £21.54 | +| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £21.54 | +| Single pensioner on a £12,548 State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,800, Council Tax Reduction £1,600, Pension Credit £113 | £19,875 | £19,896 | £21.54 | + +In each household, net income rises by the £21.54 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit or income tax amount changes. Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income, not on spending, so the lower pump price does not reduce them. In 2026-27, each household gains £12.17 in the same way. + +For the same reason, the measure does not change marginal tax rates: PolicyEngine UK gives the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget for each household (28% for the single adult and 68% for the couple on Universal Credit in 2027-28). + ## Assumptions and limitations - The analysis covers example households in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs above come from HM Treasury. @@ -194,4 +208,4 @@ The Budget states that the government's decisions on fuel duty in this Parliamen We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with the OBR's 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value at 500-litre steps; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value at 500-litre steps; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index d08b9bfec..6d24029a6 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -6,8 +6,7 @@ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], "filename": "fuel-duty-cut-extension.md", - "image": "fuel-duty-cut-extension/cover.webp", - "imageCredit": "David Howard, Geograph (CC BY-SA 2.0)" + "image": "fuel-duty-cut-extension/cover.webp" }, { "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance, step by step", From 047adc4558e1f1769c765a77618c5fbb221b5c24 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:47:30 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 12/68] Revise the PTA post after a full review of the model and method MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Pension Credit: use the 2027-28 minimum guarantee uprated by earnings (£247.30 a week; the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is earnings growth, above September 2026 CPI of 3.5%), not the model's CPI projection. - Worked examples: add a net income table that shows how the PTA passes through to Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction. - Charts: a point every £100 for the tooltip; the net income chart starts at £0; the marginal rate chart shows the effective rate from household net income, as marginal_tax_rate does, not the income tax rate. - Text: who gets the PTA, the 500,000 and 290,000 counts, the Scottish rule from the explainer, non-transferability, the costing's signs and its no-behaviour assumption, qualified "pays no income tax", the 52-week and rounding assumptions, the 6 October State Pension age test, and the simplified worked examples. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 1073 ++++++++++++++++- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 1008 insertions(+), 67 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 7841a743b..2a5fa7269 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -1,21 +1,23 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is at or just above the full new State Pension. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and just above the full new State Pension. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. Key figures for 2027-28: - The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. -- The full PTA is £94: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28, which HM Treasury rounds up. -- A pensioner with total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. +- The full PTA is £94, which covers the £93.28 of income tax that the full new State Pension would otherwise bring. +- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, no other tax charges and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. - The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. -- Across that £282 withdrawal range, the marginal income tax rate is 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. +- In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. +- For a pensioner who claims means-tested benefits, those benefits fall as income tax falls, so net income rises by less than the PTA. ## What the PTA does -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) describes the PTA in its list of tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) gives the rules in full. The PTA has four parts: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: -1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. -2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance. It is a reduction in the tax bill, not a change to the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. The rate is 20% for all UK taxpayers, including Scottish taxpayers. -3. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. -4. **Taper.** In the explainer's words, "For every £3 of income above the full level of the new State Pension, your Pension Tax Allowance will reduce by £1." +1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. +2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28. The explainer gives the full PTA as £94, and its worked examples and the £13,319 end of the withdrawal range use £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. +4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. +5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC applies it automatically, with no claim. @@ -25,13 +27,15 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | 2028-29 | £13,361.40 | £159 | £13,838.40 | | 2029-30 | £13,696.80 | £226 | £14,374.80 | -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values are PolicyEngine UK's projections under the triple lock, rounded down to 5p a week, because the government has not yet set those rates. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows use PolicyEngine UK's triple lock projections of the weekly rate, rounded down to 5p, for 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. -The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows +£50 million in 2030-31 and −£15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The explainer states that about 290,000 pensioners will pay no income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and about 500,000 will pay less. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. +The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. ## Worked examples -The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reproduces each result. +### Income tax + +The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives the same income tax for each. | Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | @@ -43,9 +47,22 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK reprodu A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,318.40 and gets no PTA. +### Net income and other benefits + +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows four single pensioners aged 70 in the North West of England in 2027-28. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renter pays £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. + +| Pensioner | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Household net income | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | + +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. + ## The PTA in each tax year -The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pension of £11,000 and a private pension. Total income changes with the private pension. +The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is all pension income, such as the State Pension and a private pension. The results depend only on total income, not on its source. ```chart { @@ -73,7 +90,13 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, + "income": 12400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12500.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 @@ -84,6 +107,36 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "y2027": 6.0, + "y2028": 6.0, + "y2029": 6.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "y2027": 26.0, + "y2028": 26.0, + "y2029": 26.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "y2027": 46.0, + "y2028": 46.0, + "y2029": 46.0 + }, + { + "income": 12900.0, + "y2027": 66.0, + "y2028": 66.0, + "y2029": 66.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, + "y2027": 86.0, + "y2028": 86.0, + "y2029": 86.0 + }, { "income": 13036.4, "y2027": 93.28, @@ -96,6 +149,24 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 93.55, "y2029": 93.55 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "y2027": 72.8, + "y2028": 106.0, + "y2029": 106.0 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "y2027": 39.47, + "y2028": 126.0, + "y2029": 126.0 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "y2027": 6.13, + "y2028": 146.0, + "y2029": 146.0 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -114,6 +185,24 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 158.55, "y2029": 158.55 }, + { + "income": 13400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 146.13, + "y2029": 166.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 112.8, + "y2029": 186.0 + }, + { + "income": 13600.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 79.47, + "y2029": 206.0 + }, { "income": 13696.8, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -126,12 +215,54 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2028": 46.8, "y2029": 225.6 }, + { + "income": 13700.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 46.13, + "y2029": 224.93 + }, + { + "income": 13800.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 12.8, + "y2029": 191.6 + }, { "income": 13838.4, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 178.8 }, + { + "income": 13900.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 158.27 + }, + { + "income": 14000.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 124.93 + }, + { + "income": 14100.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 91.6 + }, + { + "income": 14200.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 58.27 + }, + { + "income": 14300.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 24.93 + }, { "income": 14374.8, "y2027": 0.0, @@ -139,7 +270,13 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens "y2029": 0.0 }, { - "income": 14500, + "income": 14400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 14500.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 @@ -160,7 +297,7 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 with a partial new State Pens } ``` -The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. +The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. ## Income tax by total income @@ -185,7 +322,7 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, + "income": 12500.0, "without": 0.0, "with": 0.0 }, @@ -194,6 +331,31 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f "without": 0.0, "with": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "without": 6.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "without": 26.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "without": 46.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12900.0, + "without": 66.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, + "without": 86.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, { "income": 13036.4, "without": 93.28, @@ -204,13 +366,33 @@ The PTA equals the tax due up to the full new State Pension, then falls by £1 f "without": 93.55, "with": 0.0 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "without": 106.0, + "with": 33.2 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "without": 126.0, + "with": 86.53 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "without": 146.0, + "with": 139.87 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "without": 149.68, "with": 149.68 }, { - "income": 13500, + "income": 13400.0, + "without": 166.0, + "with": 166.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, "without": 186.0, "with": 186.0 } @@ -248,13 +430,13 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the ## Net income -The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment, less the £180 TV licence fee, so it sits £20 above income after tax and Pension Credit. Below £12,660.62, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,680.62 with or without the PTA. Above that, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. +This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income counts pension income and every tax and benefit that applies: here, Pension Credit, income tax, the £200 Winter Fuel Payment and the £180 TV licence fee. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The pensioner has no housing costs, so Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction do not apply. ```chart { "type": "line", "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "subtitle": "Household net income by total pension income, for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -271,57 +453,762 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net ], "data": [ { - "income": 12400, - "without": 12680.62, - "with": 12680.62 + "income": 0.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 1300.0, + 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12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 2800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 2900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 3900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4700.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4800.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 4900.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5000.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5100.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5200.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5300.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5400.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5500.0, + "without": 12879.6, + "with": 12879.6 + }, + { + "income": 5600.0, + "without": 12879.6, + 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13334.0, "with": 13334.0 - } - ], - "markers": [ + }, { - "x": 12570, - "label": "Personal Allowance" + "income": 13600.0, + "without": 13414.0, + "with": 13414.0 }, { - "x": 13036.4, - "label": "Full new State Pension" + "income": 13700.0, + "without": 13494.0, + "with": 13494.0 }, { - "x": 13318.4, - "label": "PTA withdrawn" + "income": 13800.0, + "without": 13574.0, + "with": 13574.0 + }, + { + "income": 13900.0, + "without": 13654.0, + "with": 13654.0 + }, + { + "income": 14000.0, + "without": 13734.0, + "with": 13734.0 + }, + { + "income": 14100.0, + "without": 13814.0, + "with": 13814.0 + }, + { + "income": 14200.0, + "without": 13894.0, + "with": 13894.0 + }, + { + "income": 14300.0, + "without": 13974.0, + "with": 13974.0 + }, + { + "income": 14400.0, + "without": 14054.0, + "with": 14054.0 + }, + { + "income": 14500.0, + "without": 14134.0, + "with": 14134.0 } ], "yLabel": "Household net income", - "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, @@ -332,17 +1219,21 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,660.62 a year from PolicyEngine UK." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." } ``` +We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247.30 a week, or £12,859.60 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,879.60 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. + ## Marginal tax rates +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the pensioner does not keep, after income tax and any loss of benefits. It is 1 minus the change in household net income, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, here for a £1 rise in private pension. + ```chart { "type": "line", - "title": "Marginal income tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Income tax on each extra £1 of total income", + "title": "Effective marginal tax rate for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + "subtitle": "Share of each extra £1 of private pension lost to income tax and lower Pension Credit", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -361,12 +1252,47 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net ], "data": [ { - "income": 12500, - "without": 0.0, + "income": 12400.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12500.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12600.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12700.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12800.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 100.0 + }, + { + "income": 12859.6, + "without": 100.0, "with": 0.0 }, { - "income": 12570, + "income": 12900.0, + "without": 100.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 12932.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, + { + "income": 13000.0, "without": 20.0, "with": 0.0 }, @@ -375,13 +1301,33 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "without": 20.0, "with": 53.3 }, + { + "income": 13100.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, + { + "income": 13200.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, + { + "income": 13300.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 53.3 + }, { "income": 13318.4, "without": 20.0, "with": 20.0 }, { - "income": 13500, + "income": 13400.0, + "without": 20.0, + "with": 20.0 + }, + { + "income": 13500.0, "without": 20.0, "with": 20.0 } @@ -400,7 +1346,7 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], - "yLabel": "Marginal income tax rate", + "yLabel": "Effective marginal tax rate", "format": { "suffix": "%", "decimals": 1 @@ -410,31 +1356,26 @@ The pensioner in these charts claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." } ``` -The PTA changes the marginal income tax rate in two income ranges. Between £12,570 and £13,037.75 it falls from 20% to 0%. Between £13,037.75 and £13,318.40 it rises from 20% to 53.3%: the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper. A pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of taxable income, against 80p without the PTA. - -## Interaction with Pension Credit - -Pension Credit tops up income to a minimum guarantee, and it counts income after income tax. For a Pension Credit claimant, a lower income tax bill therefore reduces Pension Credit by the same amount, and household net income does not change. - -In PolicyEngine UK, the single-person minimum guarantee is £12,660.62 a year in 2027-28. A single claimant with total income from £12,570 to £12,660.62 receives the PTA but no net income gain. From £12,660.62 to £12,683.27, the claimant's gain rises by £1 for each £1 of income. Above £12,683.27, a claimant and a non-claimant gain the same amount, up to £93.55 at £13,037.75. The net income chart above shows this for a claimant. - -The projected minimum guarantee rises faster than the Personal Allowance, so the range where Pension Credit offsets the PTA extends to about £13,000 in 2028-29 and £13,320 in 2029-30. +Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,859.60, 0% from there to £13,037.75, 53.3% from £13,037.75 to £13,318.40, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. ## Assumptions and limitations -- The analysis covers single pensioners in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. -- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension, PTA and Pension Credit values use PolicyEngine UK projections. The published rates may differ. +- The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection is £243.47. +- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values are PolicyEngine UK projections. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. -- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. The PTA reduces the tax bill after other allowances; for people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the order of steps may differ from the legislation, which the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set out. -- The Pension Credit results assume that the person claims Pension Credit when eligible. -- For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%. We model the income as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. For people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the legislation in the Finance Bill 2026-27 may set a different order. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. +- PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. +- We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. +- In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax and the PTA are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 step of total income. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4faadc497..af05b85ec 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance, step by step", - "description": "From April 2027, pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension pay no income tax. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work for example pensioners, and how it interacts with Pension Credit.", + "description": "From April 2027, the Pension Tax Allowance removes income tax for most pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work, and how they pass through to Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:00:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], From 5b6eb05c10056e71d7baa44fda99e041936c4a8c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:47:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 13/68] =?UTF-8?q?Shorten=20the=20wording=20on=20the=20?= =?UTF-8?q?=C2=A394=20full=20allowance?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 2a5fa7269..52e0fa73e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Key figures for 2027-28: - The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. -- The full PTA is £94, which covers the £93.28 of income tax that the full new State Pension would otherwise bring. +- The full PTA is £94. - A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, no other tax charges and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. - The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. - In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. -2. **Value.** The full PTA applies the 20% basic rate to the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance: 20% of £466.40 is £93.28. The explainer gives the full PTA as £94, and its worked examples and the £13,319 end of the withdrawal range use £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". +2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". 3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. From 0341ab6c5c9f7583a21df0a7e31c2e8e62dc154e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:49:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 14/68] Use an original vector illustration as the PTA post's cover MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit A tax letter showing £0.00, pound coins, a teacup and reading glasses in the PolicyEngine teal palette, drawn as SVG and rendered to WebP. It replaces the portrait, so the photo credit goes. 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z%d1V_^_okXzawlmw8eTNP1p)xGIv%6so{973{OzM1$Y6gz7WCuOeWIQv4>+UPHuOa z5@;5Mck`X&Y}9#|$h9~4|CE(6{J*_)E#A9n6O+A3e%F)~HC_>%53E>DI%mekrfNF# zM^!1plsB$r!O3f(-V_P{S-Qi4ebt!mP>?y8Ir)mt4zPGq0C_1uqMc5~e45v$FK^3i z5GXpfNzEfe=48|dRF-f}xIfbkdB2Wv&bPdvm&$3%cW1ZGR(%0AzC3qM15XX=k<%6TTk;<6vi1H8O5sAI80vI!V=nn`f*2Hd;8S zM({nMR|$X1zzQ815+tE4o-}gJJ6IL{*{ Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:50:01 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 15/68] Rename the PTA cover so caches load the new illustration Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../{cover.webp => cover-illustration.webp} | Bin app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) rename app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/{cover.webp => cover-illustration.webp} (100%) diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp b/app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp similarity index 100% rename from app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp rename to app/public/assets/posts/pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index e43d9734c..8973f3a7a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], "filename": "pension-tax-allowance.md", - "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover.webp" + "image": "pension-tax-allowance/cover-illustration.webp" }, { "title": "High value council tax surcharge: revenue by constituency", From 877e1efe41dbf293c9d8248c92198c8449e2aab1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:51:02 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 16/68] =?UTF-8?q?Show=20the=20net=20income=20chart=20aroun?= =?UTF-8?q?d=20the=20PTA=20range=20again,=20not=20from=20=C2=A30?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 677 +----------------- 1 file changed, 11 insertions(+), 666 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 52e0fa73e..1cf9df6f8 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -436,7 +436,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit { "type": "line", "title": "Net income for a single pensioner, 2027-28", - "subtitle": "Household net income by total pension income, for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", + "subtitle": "Household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible", "xKey": "income", "xLabel": "Total income", "series": [ @@ -452,626 +452,6 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit } ], "data": [ - { - "income": 0.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 1900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 2900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 3900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 4900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 5900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 6900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 7900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 8900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 9900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 10900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11400.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11500.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11600.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11700.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11800.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 11900.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12000.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12100.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12200.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, - { - "income": 12300.0, - "without": 12879.6, - "with": 12879.6 - }, { "income": 12400.0, "without": 12879.6, @@ -1156,59 +536,24 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit "income": 13500.0, "without": 13334.0, "with": 13334.0 - }, - { - "income": 13600.0, - "without": 13414.0, - "with": 13414.0 - }, - { - "income": 13700.0, - "without": 13494.0, - "with": 13494.0 - }, - { - "income": 13800.0, - "without": 13574.0, - "with": 13574.0 - }, - { - "income": 13900.0, - "without": 13654.0, - "with": 13654.0 - }, - { - "income": 14000.0, - "without": 13734.0, - "with": 13734.0 - }, - { - "income": 14100.0, - "without": 13814.0, - "with": 13814.0 - }, - { - "income": 14200.0, - "without": 13894.0, - "with": 13894.0 - }, + } + ], + "markers": [ { - "income": 14300.0, - "without": 13974.0, - "with": 13974.0 + "x": 12570, + "label": "Personal Allowance" }, { - "income": 14400.0, - "without": 14054.0, - "with": 14054.0 + "x": 13036.4, + "label": "Full new State Pension" }, { - "income": 14500.0, - "without": 14134.0, - "with": 14134.0 + "x": 13318.4, + "label": "PTA withdrawn" } ], "yLabel": "Household net income", + "yIncludesZero": false, "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, From abf07402405bb262e180c10ae79f26ce998edbc0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:52:28 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 17/68] Put line chart marker labels above the plot; align the PTA chart ranges MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Marker labels move to a strip above the plot area, one row per marker, so they no longer cross the data lines. The income tax chart now spans £12,400 to £13,500, like the net income and marginal rate charts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 5 ++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 24 +++++++++++++------ 2 files changed, 22 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 1cf9df6f8..62dc0d4b7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -321,6 +321,11 @@ The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the } ], "data": [ + { + "income": 12400.0, + "without": 0.0, + "with": 0.0 + }, { "income": 12500.0, "without": 0.0, diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index 1720f3a4e..94e6ed510 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -7,8 +7,9 @@ * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers - * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally at the - * top of the plot, one row per marker so close markers' labels do not overlap. + * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally in a + * strip above the plot, one row per marker, so labels cross neither the + * data nor each other. * * Spec: * { @@ -142,19 +143,21 @@ interface MarkerLabelProps { viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number }; value: string; row: number; + rows: number; anchor: "start" | "end"; } -/** A marker's label beside its line: right of it in the left half of the - * plot, left of it in the right half. */ -function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { +/** A marker's label in the strip above the plot, in its own row, beside its + * line: right of it in the left half of the plot, left of it in the right + * half. */ +function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, rows, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { const x = Number(viewBox?.x); const y = Number(viewBox?.y); if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null; return ( t >= xMin && t <= xMax); + const markerRows = spec.markers?.length ?? 0; const yTick = (v: number) => formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title. @@ -194,7 +198,12 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { )} From ddeee5f726f6e5e0fea2175fac19dec945ce16be Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:56:31 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 18/68] Revise the fuel duty post after an audit and the PTA review standards State that the pre-Budget April 2027 rate of 60.59p is an assumption and give the result on PolicyEngine UK's own 59.75p; note the tax-year and fiscal-year difference; put source quotes in our own words and drop the spelled-out arithmetic; plot the saving every 100 litres, checked against PolicyEngine UK at each point; state the example households' rent, council tax and State Pension inputs; merge the latest line chart fixes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 152 ++++++++++++++++-- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 136 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 8da0eb4ea..97f4c070d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -2,21 +2,19 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor extended the temporary 5 Key figures: -- The main rate of fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre until 30 June 2027. Before the Budget, it was due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027, 57.95p on 1 March 2027 and 60.59p on 1 April 2027. -- On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p, the rate that the pre-Budget plans set for that date. From then on, the rate is the same as before the Budget. -- Including the 20% VAT charged on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. +- The main rate of fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. Before the Budget, the rate was due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027, with an RPI increase planned for April 2027. +- On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. +- With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year pays £33.71 less in total: £12.17 in 2026-27 and £21.54 in 2027-28. - HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 3). ## What the Budget changes -Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the government cut it by 5p in March 2022. The cut was due to end in steps: under the rates in force before the Budget, the duty was 52.95p to 31 December 2026, 55.95p from 1 January 2027 and 57.95p from 1 March 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)). Government policy then added RPI uprating from 1 April 2027, which the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts at 60.59p. +Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March 2022. Before the Budget, the cut was due to end in two steps: the rate was to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)), and to return to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, the rate in [section 6 of the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6). Government policy since Budget 2025 was to uprate the rate by RPI from April 2027. -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) states that the government "is cancelling plans to add 5p back onto fuel duty from January 2027 and is extending the cut by a further six months to 1 July 2027", and "is also deferring the planned Retail Prices Index (RPI) increase to 1 July 2027." HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out the rates that follow: +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). -> On 1 July 2027, fuel duty rates will increase by 5ppl and will be uprated in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI). From 1 April 2028, fuel duty rates will be uprated annually in line with RPI. - -The OBR's [Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/) (October 2026, paragraph 3.19) gives the result: fuel duty rises "from 52.95 pence per litre to 60.59 pence per litre" on 1 July 2027. +No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19.17 instead of £21.54. | Period | Days | Rate before the Budget | Rate after the Budget | Duty saved a litre | Duty and VAT saved a litre | | ----------------------------- | ---- | ---------------------- | --------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | @@ -26,9 +24,9 @@ The OBR's [Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fis | 1 April to 30 June 2027 | 91 | 60.59p | 52.95p | 7.64p | 9.17p | | From 1 July 2027 | – | 60.59p | 60.59p | 0p | 0p | -VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty, so each penny of duty adds 1.2p to the price of a litre. A driver who fills a 50-litre tank pays £1.80 less in January or February 2027, £3.00 less in March 2027 and £4.58 less between April and June 2027, if retailers pass the change on in full. +VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty. If retailers pass the change on in full, a 50-litre tank costs £1.80 less in January or February 2027, £3.00 less in March 2027 and £4.58 less from April to June 2027. -The same rates apply to petrol and diesel. In areas with the [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) of 5p a litre, the rates are 5p lower both before and after the Budget, so the saving a litre is the same. +The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels; this post covers petrol and diesel only. ```chart { @@ -86,7 +84,7 @@ The same rates apply to petrol and diesel. In areas with the [Rural Fuel Duty Re ## Worked examples -The examples below are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or diesel a year, spread evenly over each tax year. 1,000 litres is about 19 litres a week. Tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, as in PolicyEngine UK, so 2026-27 includes January to March 2027 and 2027-28 includes April to June 2027. +The examples are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or diesel a year, spread evenly over each tax year. 1,000 litres is about 19 litres a week. PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. HM Treasury's figures use fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. | Fuel use a year | Fuel duty saved | VAT saved | Total saved, 2026-27 | Total saved, 2027-28 | Total saved | | --------------- | --------------- | --------- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ----------- | @@ -94,7 +92,7 @@ The examples below are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol | 1,000 litres | £28.09 | £5.62 | £12.17 | £21.54 | £33.71 | | 2,000 litres | £56.19 | £11.24 | £24.34 | £43.08 | £67.43 | -For the household that uses 1,000 litres a year, the duty in 2026-27 falls by £10.14: 2.74 litres a day for 59 days at 3p, 31 days at 5p and 5 days at 7.64p. VAT on that duty falls by £2.03, so the total is £12.17. In 2027-28, the household saves 86 days at 7.64p, which is £17.95 of duty and £3.59 of VAT, or £21.54. Totals may not add because of rounding. +Totals may not add because of rounding. The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. @@ -129,30 +127,150 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi "y2027": 0.0, "y2026": 0.0 }, + { + "litres": 100, + "total": 3.37, + "y2027": 2.15, + "y2026": 1.22 + }, + { + "litres": 200, + "total": 6.74, + "y2027": 4.31, + "y2026": 2.43 + }, + { + "litres": 300, + "total": 10.11, + "y2027": 6.46, + "y2026": 3.65 + }, + { + "litres": 400, + "total": 13.49, + "y2027": 8.62, + "y2026": 4.87 + }, { "litres": 500, "total": 16.86, "y2027": 10.77, "y2026": 6.09 }, + { + "litres": 600, + "total": 20.23, + "y2027": 12.93, + "y2026": 7.3 + }, + { + "litres": 700, + "total": 23.6, + "y2027": 15.08, + "y2026": 8.52 + }, + { + "litres": 800, + "total": 26.97, + "y2027": 17.23, + "y2026": 9.74 + }, + { + "litres": 900, + "total": 30.34, + "y2027": 19.39, + "y2026": 10.95 + }, { "litres": 1000, "total": 33.71, "y2027": 21.54, "y2026": 12.17 }, + { + "litres": 1100, + "total": 37.08, + "y2027": 23.7, + "y2026": 13.39 + }, + { + "litres": 1200, + "total": 40.46, + "y2027": 25.85, + "y2026": 14.61 + }, + { + "litres": 1300, + "total": 43.83, + "y2027": 28.0, + "y2026": 15.82 + }, + { + "litres": 1400, + "total": 47.2, + "y2027": 30.16, + "y2026": 17.04 + }, { "litres": 1500, "total": 50.57, "y2027": 32.31, "y2026": 18.26 }, + { + "litres": 1600, + "total": 53.94, + "y2027": 34.47, + "y2026": 19.47 + }, + { + "litres": 1700, + "total": 57.31, + "y2027": 36.62, + "y2026": 20.69 + }, + { + "litres": 1800, + "total": 60.68, + "y2027": 38.78, + "y2026": 21.91 + }, + { + "litres": 1900, + "total": 64.06, + "y2027": 40.93, + "y2026": 23.12 + }, { "litres": 2000, "total": 67.43, "y2027": 43.08, "y2026": 24.34 }, + { + "litres": 2100, + "total": 70.8, + "y2027": 45.24, + "y2026": 25.56 + }, + { + "litres": 2200, + "total": 74.17, + "y2027": 47.39, + "y2026": 26.78 + }, + { + "litres": 2300, + "total": 77.54, + "y2027": 49.55, + "y2026": 27.99 + }, + { + "litres": 2400, + "total": 80.91, + "y2027": 51.7, + "y2026": 29.21 + }, { "litres": 2500, "total": 84.28, @@ -182,7 +300,7 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi ## Net income and other benefits -The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources, plus benefits, less direct taxes, council tax and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner's State Pension is £12,547.60, the 2026-27 full new State Pension, held at that level in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections. | Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | @@ -199,13 +317,13 @@ For the same reason, the measure does not change marginal tax rates: PolicyEngin - The analysis covers example households in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs above come from HM Treasury. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. -- The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is the OBR's RPI-uprated figure. The government had not set it in law. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so the RPI forecast does not change the results. +- The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. - The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. -The Budget states that the government's decisions on fuel duty in this Parliament "are expected to have saved the average car driver £230" compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024 against a different baseline, so it does not compare with the figures in this post, which cover only the Budget 2026 measure. +The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024 against a different baseline, so it does not compare with the figures in this post, which cover only the Budget 2026 measure. ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with the OBR's 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value at 500-litre steps; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 4b449f067..bcb1ceedb 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { "title": "The fuel duty cut extension, step by step", - "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre until 1 July 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", + "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", "date": "2026-10-28 19:00:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], From 3dfc4767d2a77db4de628844d28489c23ef39515 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:56:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 19/68] Add Universal Credit to the PTA benefits table; trim the chart sources A mixed-age couple claims Universal Credit, which counts pension income before income tax (UC Regs 2013 reg. 66), so the PTA leaves it unchanged and the couple keeps the full PTA. The post notes the Marriage Allowance case and the earnings case the model does not capture. The chart source lines no longer repeat the Pension Credit estimate. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 22 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 12 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 62dc0d4b7..23eaed352 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,16 +49,17 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of inco ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows four single pensioners aged 70 in the North West of England in 2027-28. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renter pays £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows five households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and a couple aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. -| Pensioner | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Household net income | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | +| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -569,7 +570,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` @@ -706,7 +707,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,859.60 a year (£247.30 a week), our estimate." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026)." } ``` @@ -723,6 +724,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. +- Universal Credit counts earnings after income tax. Where the older partner in a mixed-age couple pays income tax on earnings, the PTA can raise those earnings after tax, and Universal Credit then takes back 55p of each £1. Our model does not capture this case. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From fb90f167c80d6c481ec43d854d4d70442fd77212 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 10:57:20 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 20/68] Split the benefits paragraph so Universal Credit has its own Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 4 +++- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 23eaed352..3e376a967 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -59,7 +59,9 @@ Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income afte | £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | | Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. + +A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year From 7182a6a391133e37b83b19ff7f7f541a1c2b6559 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:05:17 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 21/68] Show real couple cases for Universal Credit and the PTA MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Married couples keep the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's tax, so the PTA gives nothing. Unmarried couples keep the full PTA on pension income; on earnings, Universal Credit now takes back 55p of each £1, because the model passes the PTA into the tax that UC deducts from earnings. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 24 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 3e376a967..fb6b5a72e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,19 +49,21 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of inco ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows five households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and a couple aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. - -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | -| -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Couple aged 70 and 60, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows seven households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and three couples aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. + +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Married couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | +£41.97 | Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. -A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it, and the couple keeps the full PTA. In this example, the younger partner does not transfer the Marriage Allowance; with it, the older partner already pays no income tax and the PTA gives nothing. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. ## The PTA in each tax year @@ -726,7 +728,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. -- Universal Credit counts earnings after income tax. Where the older partner in a mixed-age couple pays income tax on earnings, the PTA can raise those earnings after tax, and Universal Credit then takes back 55p of each £1. Our model does not capture this case. +- PolicyEngine UK takes a person's earnings as the lowest slice of their income when it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts, and it takes tax reductions off that tax first. We apply the PTA in the same way. The couples' examples do not include local Council Tax Reduction schemes for working-age households. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From 9bf5522332733bb932cbd5f31836906f847700ff Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:15:00 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 22/68] Explain why the fuel duty measure does not reach other programmes Run the net income table on the OBR October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does (2027-28 values are the same on the March forecast), and say why no benefit, uprating or marginal rate changes; note business fuel use for the self-employed as out of scope. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 14 ++++++++++---- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 97f4c070d..b1c1a55af 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi ## Net income and other benefits -The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner's State Pension is £12,547.60, the 2026-27 full new State Pension, held at that level in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections. +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner's State Pension is £12,547.60, the 2026-27 full new State Pension, held at that level in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. | Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | | --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | @@ -308,9 +308,15 @@ The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxe | Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £21.54 | | Single pensioner on a £12,548 State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,800, Council Tax Reduction £1,600, Pension Credit £113 | £19,875 | £19,896 | £21.54 | -In each household, net income rises by the £21.54 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit or income tax amount changes. Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income, not on spending, so the lower pump price does not reduce them. In 2026-27, each household gains £12.17 in the same way. +In each household, net income rises by the £21.54 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit, income tax or National Insurance amount changes. In 2026-27, each household gains £12.17 in the same way. -For the same reason, the measure does not change marginal tax rates: PolicyEngine UK gives the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget for each household (28% for the single adult and 68% for the couple on Universal Credit in 2027-28). +The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for three reasons: + +- **Means tests use income, not spending.** Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income and capital. Fuel duty enters only the household's taxes, so the lower pump price does not reduce any award. +- **Benefit uprating does not change.** April 2027 uprating uses September 2026 inflation, before the measure applies. April 2028 uprating uses September 2027 inflation. The duty rate is the same with and without the Budget in both September 2026 (52.95p) and September 2027 (60.59p), so the measure does not change the September 2027 annual inflation rate through pump prices. +- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget: 28% for the single adult and 68% for the couple on Universal Credit in 2027-28. So the post has no marginal rate chart. + +Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. ## Assumptions and limitations @@ -324,6 +330,6 @@ The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliamen ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. From 5af556adae329d08999b063c045fa37fa9dfb5a9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:15:30 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 23/68] Run the PTA post on the OBR October 2026 forecast, as the dashboard does MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Max's review: the 2028-29 and 2029-30 maximums came from policyengine-uk 2.151.0's March 2026 forecast (£159, £226). Every calculation now applies the dashboard's obr_october_2026.json growth rates before data load, with the reform added to that scenario, so the triple lock gives 3.4% in April 2028: the full PTA is £182 and £250, the withdrawal ends at £14,024.40 and £14,566.40, and the Methodology names the forecast. 2027-28 results do not change. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 100 ++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 56 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index fb6b5a72e..d656f8c95 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -24,10 +24,10 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | Tax year | Full new State Pension | Full PTA | PTA reaches zero at | | -------- | ---------------------- | -------- | ------------------- | | 2027-28 | £13,036.40 | £94 | £13,318.40 | -| 2028-29 | £13,361.40 | £159 | £13,838.40 | -| 2029-30 | £13,696.80 | £226 | £14,374.80 | +| 2028-29 | £13,478.40 | £182 | £14,024.40 | +| 2029-30 | £13,816.40 | £250 | £14,566.40 | -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows use PolicyEngine UK's triple lock projections of the weekly rate, rounded down to 5p, for 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. @@ -179,109 +179,121 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is al "y2029": 149.68 }, { - "income": 13361.4, + "income": 13400.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 158.28, - "y2029": 158.28 + "y2028": 166.0, + "y2029": 166.0 }, { - "income": 13362.75, + "income": 13478.4, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 158.55, - "y2029": 158.55 + "y2028": 181.68, + "y2029": 181.68 }, { - "income": 13400.0, + "income": 13479.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 146.13, - "y2029": 166.0 + "y2028": 181.8, + "y2029": 181.8 }, { "income": 13500.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 112.8, + "y2028": 174.8, "y2029": 186.0 }, { "income": 13600.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 79.47, + "y2028": 141.47, "y2029": 206.0 }, { - "income": 13696.8, + "income": 13700.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 47.2, - "y2029": 225.36 + "y2028": 108.13, + "y2029": 226.0 }, { - "income": 13698.0, + "income": 13800.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 46.8, - "y2029": 225.6 + "y2028": 74.8, + "y2029": 246.0 }, { - "income": 13700.0, + "income": 13816.4, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 46.13, - "y2029": 224.93 + "y2028": 69.33, + "y2029": 249.28 }, { - "income": 13800.0, + "income": 13817.75, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 12.8, - "y2029": 191.6 + "y2028": 68.88, + "y2029": 249.55 }, { - "income": 13838.4, + "income": 13900.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 178.8 + "y2028": 41.47, + "y2029": 222.13 }, { - "income": 13900.0, + "income": 14000.0, "y2027": 0.0, - "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 158.27 + "y2028": 8.13, + "y2029": 188.8 }, { - "income": 14000.0, + "income": 14024.4, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 124.93 + "y2029": 180.67 }, { "income": 14100.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 91.6 + "y2029": 155.47 }, { "income": 14200.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 58.27 + "y2029": 122.13 }, { "income": 14300.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, - "y2029": 24.93 + "y2029": 88.8 }, { - "income": 14374.8, + "income": 14400.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 55.47 + }, + { + "income": 14500.0, + "y2027": 0.0, + "y2028": 0.0, + "y2029": 22.13 + }, + { + "income": 14566.4, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 }, { - "income": 14400.0, + "income": 14600.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 }, { - "income": 14500.0, + "income": 14700.0, "y2027": 0.0, "y2028": 0.0, "y2029": 0.0 @@ -298,11 +310,11 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is al "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). 2028-29 and 2029-30 use PolicyEngine UK's State Pension projections." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK household calculation; HM Treasury, Pension Tax Allowance explainer (28 October 2026). 2028-29 and 2029-30 use the State Pension on the OBR's October 2026 forecast." } ``` -The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £226 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £678. +The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £250 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £750. ## Income tax by total income @@ -721,7 +733,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall - The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. - DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection is £243.47. -- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values are PolicyEngine UK projections. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. +- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. For people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the legislation in the Finance Bill 2026-27 may set a different order. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. @@ -734,4 +746,4 @@ The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. From 2b53029a8115f04cc3c1b10f33fbc68723f00b0a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:19:23 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 24/68] Address Max's second review of the PTA post MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Pension Credit claimants aged 75 or over can lose up to £180: leaving Pension Credit ends the free TV licence. New aged-76 row and a TV licence column in the benefits table; the net income text says so. - "Pays no income tax" needs income taxed at 20%: property income at 22% leaves £8.61 on £13,036.40 (was £102.61). - Name the dashboard's own Pension Credit guarantee on the October forecast (£245.38) beside the post's earnings-based £247.30. - Drop the High Income Child Benefit Charge example; note that no other Budget measure is included. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 36 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 19 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index d656f8c95..f87bd7d3a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -4,10 +4,10 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: - The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. - The full PTA is £94. -- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, no other tax charges and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. +- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, income taxed at the 20% basic rate and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. - The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. - In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. -- For a pensioner who claims means-tested benefits, those benefits fall as income tax falls, so net income rises by less than the PTA. +- For a pensioner who claims means-tested benefits, those benefits fall as income tax falls, so net income rises by less than the PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over can lose up to £180, because leaving Pension Credit ends the free TV licence. ## What the PTA does @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". -3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036.40 of property income pays £8.61 with the PTA, down from £102.61. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. @@ -49,19 +49,20 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of inco ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows seven households in the North West of England in 2027-28: four single pensioners aged 70 and three couples aged 70 and 60. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the Pension Credit claimant, who has no housing costs in this example; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28: five single pensioners and three couples aged 70 and 60. The single pensioners are aged 70, except one aged 76. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the two Pension Credit claimants, who have no housing costs in these examples; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | Household net income | -| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Married couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | +£41.97 | +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Household net income | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | -------------------- | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | +| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | +| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Aged 76, £11,000 State Pension and £1,860 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −£58.00 | −£57.60 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£180.00 | −£179.60 | +| Married couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | +| Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | £0.00 | +£41.97 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so the aged-76 claimant is £179.60 worse off. This applies from £12,859.60 to £12,931.99 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. @@ -590,7 +591,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit } ``` -We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247.30 a week, or £12,859.60 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,879.60 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. +We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247.30 a week, or £12,859.60 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,879.60 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,859.60 to £12,931.99. ## Marginal tax rates @@ -732,14 +733,15 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit fall ## Assumptions and limitations - The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. -- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection is £243.47. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245.38, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that lower guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ slightly. - The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. -- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability. For people with tax charges, such as the High Income Child Benefit Charge, the legislation in the Finance Bill 2026-27 may set a different order. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. +- We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability; the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set the legal order of steps. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. +- The calculations include no other Budget 2026 measure. The Budget raises the tax rates on property and savings income from April 2027, which would leave more tax to pay on such income with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK takes a person's earnings as the lowest slice of their income when it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts, and it takes tax reductions off that tax first. We apply the PTA in the same way. The couples' examples do not include local Council Tax Reduction schemes for working-age households. The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. From b1c3b7b5e2b76a9a4bfe7370aa062746dfe5949d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:19:52 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 25/68] Add the dashboard's provisional population results for fuel duty Cost by year beside Table 6.1, the scope, timing, behaviour and VAT differences, the average gain and share of income by decile, the share of people affected, and why poverty does not change. From the preview run of fuel_duty_rise_deferral (dashboard 0d9dccb2), hash-checked. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 181 +++++++++++++++++- 1 file changed, 179 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index b1c1a55af..ff4916103 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -6,7 +6,8 @@ Key figures: - On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year pays £33.71 less in total: £12.17 in 2026-27 and £21.54 in 2027-28. -- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 3). +- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 3). PolicyEngine's provisional estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. +- In 2027-28, household net income rises by £17.77 a year on average, from £12.07 in the lowest income decile to £23.90 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes @@ -318,9 +319,185 @@ The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for thre Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. +## Population results + +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below are provisional: they come from a preview run of 28 October 2026 that the dashboard team has not yet reconciled with the Treasury figures, and they may change in the final release. + +| Tax year | PolicyEngine: static, household fuel | HM Treasury: Table 6.1, with behavioural response | +| --------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | +| 2026-27 | −£301 million | −£575 million | +| 2027-28 | −£521 million | −£780 million | +| 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | + +PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Part of the difference is scope: the PolicyEngine sample covers fuel that households buy, while the Treasury's base also covers vans, lorries and business use of cars. The figures also differ in timing, because PolicyEngine's tax years start on 6 April and the Treasury's fiscal years on 1 April, and in behaviour, because the Treasury includes a demand response. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total; the costing does not say whether the Treasury's figure does. The dashboard team is reviewing the rest of the gap. + +Household net income rises by an average of £10.33 in 2026-27 and £17.77 in 2027-28, across all households. 61% of people in 2026-27 and 73% in 2027-28 live in a household whose net income rises by more than 0.01%. The others live in households that buy no petrol or diesel, or very little. + +In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12.07 in the lowest income decile to £23.90 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. + +```chart +{ + "type": "bar", + "title": "Average gain by income decile", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income, £ a year, by tax year", + "xKey": "decile", + "series": [ + { + "key": "y2026", + "name": "2026-27", + "color": "tertiary" + }, + { + "key": "y2027", + "name": "2027-28", + "color": "primary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "decile": "1st", + "y2026": 6.93, + "y2027": 12.07 + }, + { + "decile": "2nd", + "y2026": 7.49, + "y2027": 12.77 + }, + { + "decile": "3rd", + "y2026": 8.09, + "y2027": 13.91 + }, + { + "decile": "4th", + "y2026": 9.08, + "y2027": 15.43 + }, + { + "decile": "5th", + "y2026": 9.56, + "y2027": 16.76 + }, + { + "decile": "6th", + "y2026": 11.12, + "y2027": 18.89 + }, + { + "decile": "7th", + "y2026": 11.3, + "y2027": 19.55 + }, + { + "decile": "8th", + "y2026": 12.9, + "y2027": 22.3 + }, + { + "decile": "9th", + "y2026": 13.86, + "y2027": 23.9 + }, + { + "decile": "10th", + "y2026": 13.35, + "y2027": 22.95 + } + ], + "yLabel": "Average gain", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 2 + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, provisional run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." +} +``` + +```chart +{ + "type": "bar", + "title": "Gain as a share of income by income decile", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income, % of baseline income, by tax year", + "xKey": "decile", + "series": [ + { + "key": "y2026", + "name": "2026-27", + "color": "tertiary" + }, + { + "key": "y2027", + "name": "2027-28", + "color": "primary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "decile": "1st", + "y2026": 0.0271, + "y2027": 0.0466 + }, + { + "decile": "2nd", + "y2026": 0.0189, + "y2027": 0.032 + }, + { + "decile": "3rd", + "y2026": 0.0184, + "y2027": 0.0312 + }, + { + "decile": "4th", + "y2026": 0.0192, + "y2027": 0.0319 + }, + { + "decile": "5th", + "y2026": 0.018, + "y2027": 0.0309 + }, + { + "decile": "6th", + "y2026": 0.0192, + "y2027": 0.032 + }, + { + "decile": "7th", + "y2026": 0.0178, + "y2027": 0.03 + }, + { + "decile": "8th", + "y2026": 0.0178, + "y2027": 0.0303 + }, + { + "decile": "9th", + "y2026": 0.0162, + "y2027": 0.0274 + }, + { + "decile": "10th", + "y2026": 0.0086, + "y2027": 0.0145 + } + ], + "yLabel": "% of income", + "format": { + "decimals": 3, + "suffix": "%" + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, provisional run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." +} +``` + +The poverty rate does not change. Official poverty measures, and PolicyEngine's, use household income after direct taxes, which does not deduct taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT. The Gini index of household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. + ## Assumptions and limitations -- The analysis covers example households in a household calculation. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs above come from HM Treasury. +- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from the dashboard's provisional microsimulation, which is static and covers household fuel only. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. From 9e4280c98a800b7ed6218214c62e6cb56f6c2674 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:20:24 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 26/68] Round the PTA post's figures to whole pounds outside the worked tables MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Max's rule for the Budget posts: prose, key figures and summary tables give whole pounds; pence stay only in the two worked-example tables. The ends of the withdrawal range round up, as the explainer's £13,319 does: £13,319, £14,025 and £14,567. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 28 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 14 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index f87bd7d3a..b4a2f8a38 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -2,10 +2,10 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Key figures for 2027-28: -- The full new State Pension is £13,036.40 a year, £466.40 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. +- The full new State Pension is £13,036 a year, £466 above the £12,570 Personal Allowance. - The full PTA is £94. -- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, income taxed at the 20% basic rate and total income up to £13,036.40 pays no income tax. -- The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036.40 and reaches zero at £13,318.40. +- A pensioner with the standard Personal Allowance, income taxed at the 20% basic rate and total income up to £13,036 pays no income tax. +- The PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of income above £13,036 and reaches zero at £13,319. - In that withdrawal range, a taxpayer outside Scotland has an effective marginal tax rate of 53.3%, against 20% without the PTA. - For a pensioner who claims means-tested benefits, those benefits fall as income tax falls, so net income rises by less than the PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over can lose up to £180, because leaving Pension Credit ends the free TV licence. @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". -3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036.40 of property income pays £8.61 with the PTA, down from £102.61. +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | Tax year | Full new State Pension | Full PTA | PTA reaches zero at | | -------- | ---------------------- | -------- | ------------------- | -| 2027-28 | £13,036.40 | £94 | £13,318.40 | -| 2028-29 | £13,478.40 | £182 | £14,024.40 | -| 2029-30 | £13,816.40 | £250 | £14,566.40 | +| 2027-28 | £13,036 | £94 | £13,319 | +| 2028-29 | £13,478 | £182 | £14,025 | +| 2029-30 | £13,816 | £250 | £14,567 | The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. @@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives t | Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | | Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | -A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93.28 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,318.40 and gets no PTA. +A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,319 and gets no PTA. ### Net income and other benefits @@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income afte | Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | | Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | £0.00 | +£41.97 | -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so the aged-76 claimant is £179.60 worse off. This applies from £12,859.60 to £12,931.99 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so the aged-76 claimant is £180 worse off. This applies from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. @@ -449,7 +449,7 @@ The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the } ``` -Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,037.75, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,318.40. Above £13,318.40, the PTA has no effect. +Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,038, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,319. Above £13,319, the PTA has no effect. ## Net income @@ -591,7 +591,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit } ``` -We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247.30 a week, or £12,859.60 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,879.60 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £93.55, at £13,037.75, and the gain falls to zero at £13,318.40. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,859.60 to £12,931.99. +We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247 a week, or £12,860 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,880 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £94, at £13,038, and the gain falls to zero at £13,319. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,860 to £12,932. ## Marginal tax rates @@ -728,12 +728,12 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the } ``` -Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,931.99, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,859.60, 0% from there to £13,037.75, 53.3% from £13,037.75 to £13,318.40, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. +Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,860, 0% from there to £13,038, 53.3% from £13,038 to £13,319, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. ## Assumptions and limitations - The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. -- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238.00 a week, which gives £247.30. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245.38, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that lower guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ slightly. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that lower guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ slightly. - The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability; the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set the legal order of steps. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. @@ -748,4 +748,4 @@ The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. From b5bbdc8b7f4bf0325d7100544e734455b4bfe489 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:29:28 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 27/68] Number and simplify the benefits table; qualify the over-75 loss Short numbered household labels with the incomes in the text above, a dash for no change and net income in bold. The over-75 paragraph now says the loss assumes the household needs a TV licence, and that leaving Pension Credit can also end help the model leaves out, such as the Warm Home Discount. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 30 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 14 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index b4a2f8a38..40bc8924a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,20 +49,22 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28: five single pensioners and three couples aged 70 and 60. The single pensioners are aged 70, except one aged 76. Each owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except the two Pension Credit claimants, who have no housing costs in these examples; the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. - -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Household net income | -| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | -------------------- | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Full new State Pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£74.62 | -| Full new State Pension, rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£13.99 | -| £11,000 State Pension and £1,800 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Aged 76, £11,000 State Pension and £1,860 private pension, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −£58.00 | −£57.60 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£180.00 | −£179.60 | -| Married couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Unmarried couple, older partner on the full new State Pension, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | +£93.28 | -| Unmarried couple, older partner earns £13,036.40 with the State Pension deferred, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | −£51.30 | £0.00 | +£41.97 | - -Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so the renter keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so the aged-76 claimant is £180 worse off. This applies from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Each household owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except households 4 and 5, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. + +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ------------ | +| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+£93.28** | +| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | −£18.66 | — | — | **+£74.62** | +| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | — | — | **+£13.99** | +| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | +| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −£58.00 | −£57.60 | — | — | — | +£180.00 | **−£179.60** | +| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | +| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+£93.28** | +| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | −£51.30 | — | **+£41.97** | + +Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so household 3 keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee, such as household 4, loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. + +A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so household 5 is £180 worse off. This happens from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. It assumes that the household needs a TV licence. Leaving Pension Credit can also end other help that the model does not include, such as the £150 Warm Home Discount in England and Wales, so the loss can be larger. A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. From ed131f9104a2c3d63b514b65c50a6f6db424ef85 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:30:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 28/68] Keep signs with their numbers in the PTA post's tables Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 20 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 40bc8924a..7e14ef34e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -51,16 +51,16 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Each household owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except households 4 and 5, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ------------ | -| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+£93.28** | -| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | −£18.66 | — | — | **+£74.62** | -| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | −£60.63 | −£18.66 | — | — | **+£13.99** | -| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −£46.00 | −£46.00 | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | -| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −£58.00 | −£57.60 | — | — | — | +£180.00 | **−£179.60** | -| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | -| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+£93.28** | -| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −£93.28 | — | — | — | −£51.30 | — | **+£41.97** | +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ------------- | +| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93.28** | +| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | −⁠£18.66 | — | — | **+⁠£74.62** | +| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | −⁠£60.63 | −⁠£18.66 | — | — | **+⁠£13.99** | +| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −⁠£46.00 | −⁠£46.00 | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | +| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −⁠£58.00 | −⁠£57.60 | — | — | — | +⁠£180.00 | **−⁠£179.60** | +| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | +| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93.28** | +| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | −⁠£51.30 | — | **+⁠£41.97** | Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so household 3 keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee, such as household 4, loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. From aff4a88bc5d7bbf5bb530d01adcfcd5a170e6a11 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:30:58 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 29/68] Apply Max's review: whole pounds, a weekly table, the Treasury gap Round prose, headline and summary figures to whole pounds and keep pence in the worked per-litre figures; add the saving by litres a week; explain the gap to Table 6.1 as mainly scope, with behaviour and timing working the other way; use the 2027-28 full new State Pension for the pensioner; link the dashboard and Table 6.1; drop process wording. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 53 +++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 31 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index ff4916103..79d5e5f69 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -5,9 +5,9 @@ Key figures: - The main rate of fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. Before the Budget, the rate was due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027, with an RPI increase planned for April 2027. - On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. -- A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year pays £33.71 less in total: £12.17 in 2026-27 and £21.54 in 2027-28. -- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 3). PolicyEngine's provisional estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. -- In 2027-28, household net income rises by £17.77 a year on average, from £12.07 in the lowest income decile to £23.90 in the ninth. +- A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year, about 19 litres a week, pays £34 less in total: £12 in 2026-27 and £22 in 2027-28. +- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). PolicyEngine's provisional estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. +- In 2027-28, household net income rises by £18 a year on average, from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). -No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19.17 instead of £21.54. +No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19 instead of £22. | Period | Days | Rate before the Budget | Rate after the Budget | Duty saved a litre | Duty and VAT saved a litre | | ----------------------------- | ---- | ---------------------- | --------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government ha | 1 April to 30 June 2027 | 91 | 60.59p | 52.95p | 7.64p | 9.17p | | From 1 July 2027 | – | 60.59p | 60.59p | 0p | 0p | -VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty. If retailers pass the change on in full, a 50-litre tank costs £1.80 less in January or February 2027, £3.00 less in March 2027 and £4.58 less from April to June 2027. +VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty. If retailers pass the change on in full, a 50-litre tank costs about £2 less in January or February 2027, £3 less in March 2027 and £5 less from April to June 2027. The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels; this post covers petrol and diesel only. @@ -89,12 +89,21 @@ The examples are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or di | Fuel use a year | Fuel duty saved | VAT saved | Total saved, 2026-27 | Total saved, 2027-28 | Total saved | | --------------- | --------------- | --------- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ----------- | -| 500 litres | £14.05 | £2.81 | £6.09 | £10.77 | £16.86 | -| 1,000 litres | £28.09 | £5.62 | £12.17 | £21.54 | £33.71 | -| 2,000 litres | £56.19 | £11.24 | £24.34 | £43.08 | £67.43 | +| 500 litres | £14 | £3 | £6 | £11 | £17 | +| 1,000 litres | £28 | £6 | £12 | £22 | £34 | +| 2,000 litres | £56 | £11 | £24 | £43 | £67 | Totals may not add because of rounding. +The same saving by litres bought a week, with the duty and VAT saved each week in each period: + +| Litres a week | A year | Saved a week, January and February 2027 | Saved a week, March 2027 | Saved a week, April to June 2027 | Total, 1 January to 30 June 2027 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | +| ------------- | ------------------ | --------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | -------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | ------- | ------- | +| 10 litres | about 520 litres | 36p | 60p | 92p | £18 | £6 | £11 | +| 20 litres | about 1,040 litres | 72p | £1.20 | £1.83 | £35 | £13 | £23 | +| 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £1.44 | £2.40 | £3.67 | £70 | £25 | £45 | +| 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £2.16 | £3.60 | £5.50 | £106 | £38 | £68 | + The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. ```chart @@ -301,27 +310,27 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi ## Net income and other benefits -The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner's State Pension is £12,547.60, the 2026-27 full new State Pension, held at that level in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036.40 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. -| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | -| --------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | -| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £21.54 | -| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £21.54 | -| Single pensioner on a £12,548 State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,800, Council Tax Reduction £1,600, Pension Credit £113 | £19,875 | £19,896 | £21.54 | +| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | +| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £22 | +| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £22 | +| Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,616, Council Tax Reduction £1,544 | £19,917 | £19,939 | £22 | -In each household, net income rises by the £21.54 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit, income tax or National Insurance amount changes. In 2026-27, each household gains £12.17 in the same way. +In each household, net income rises by the £22 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit, income tax or National Insurance amount changes. In 2026-27, each household gains £12 in the same way. The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for three reasons: - **Means tests use income, not spending.** Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income and capital. Fuel duty enters only the household's taxes, so the lower pump price does not reduce any award. - **Benefit uprating does not change.** April 2027 uprating uses September 2026 inflation, before the measure applies. April 2028 uprating uses September 2027 inflation. The duty rate is the same with and without the Budget in both September 2026 (52.95p) and September 2027 (60.59p), so the measure does not change the September 2027 annual inflation rate through pump prices. -- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget: 28% for the single adult and 68% for the couple on Universal Credit in 2027-28. So the post has no marginal rate chart. +- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. ## Population results -PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below are provisional: they come from a preview run of 28 October 2026 that the dashboard team has not yet reconciled with the Treasury figures, and they may change in the final release. +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below are provisional, from a run of 28 October 2026. | Tax year | PolicyEngine: static, household fuel | HM Treasury: Table 6.1, with behavioural response | | --------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | @@ -329,11 +338,11 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe | 2027-28 | −£521 million | −£780 million | | 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | -PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Part of the difference is scope: the PolicyEngine sample covers fuel that households buy, while the Treasury's base also covers vans, lorries and business use of cars. The figures also differ in timing, because PolicyEngine's tax years start on 6 April and the Treasury's fiscal years on 1 April, and in behaviour, because the Treasury includes a demand response. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total; the costing does not say whether the Treasury's figure does. The dashboard team is reviewing the rest of the gap. +PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in 2026-27. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. -Household net income rises by an average of £10.33 in 2026-27 and £17.77 in 2027-28, across all households. 61% of people in 2026-27 and 73% in 2027-28 live in a household whose net income rises by more than 0.01%. The others live in households that buy no petrol or diesel, or very little. +Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. 61% of people in 2026-27 and 73% in 2027-28 live in a household whose net income rises by more than 0.01%. The others live in households that buy no petrol or diesel, or very little. -In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12.07 in the lowest income decile to £23.90 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. +In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. ```chart { @@ -408,7 +417,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12.07 in the lowest inco "yLabel": "Average gain", "format": { "prefix": "£", - "decimals": 2 + "decimals": 0 }, "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, provisional run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." } @@ -509,4 +518,4 @@ The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliamen We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. From 5659ed3f331eae0e4e72f2eda7bd5b9c8b4266e2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:32:06 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 30/68] Add the dashboard calculator's commuter as a worked example Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 2 ++ 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 79d5e5f69..80f746373 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -104,6 +104,8 @@ The same saving by litres bought a week, with the duty and VAT saved each week i | 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £1.44 | £2.40 | £3.67 | £70 | £25 | £45 | | 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £2.16 | £3.60 | £5.50 | £106 | £38 | £68 | +The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28, the same per litre as the examples above. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. + The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. ```chart From 1e2e589af7851a7be6adf4621b1ec3901b3cf1d8 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:33:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 31/68] Add population results to the PTA post MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit A static microsimulation set up as the Autumn Budget dashboard sets up its runs (pe.uk.managed_microsimulation on policyengine 6.11.1's certified Microcosm UK dataset, policyengine-uk 2.151.0, the OBR's October 2026 forecast). Income tax falls by £42m, £113m and £193m in 2027-28 to 2029-30 (Treasury: £45m, £90m, £150m); net income rises by less, as means-tested benefits fall; 528,000 households gain in 2027-28, rising to 1.07 million. Two decile charts. Marked provisional until the dashboard publishes its own run. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 214 +++++++++++++++++- 1 file changed, 213 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 7e14ef34e..d252c6f37 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -732,9 +732,220 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,860, 0% from there to £13,038, 53.3% from £13,038 to £13,319, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. +## Population results + +We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The results are static, with no behavioural response, and provisional: the dashboard has not yet published its own run for this measure, and its figures may differ. + +| Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Household net income: PolicyEngine | +| -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | +| 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| 2027-28 | −£42 million | −£45 million | +£30 million | +| 2028-29 | −£113 million | −£90 million | +£83 million | +| 2029-30 | −£193 million | −£150 million | +£144 million | +| 2030-31 | £0 | +£50 million | £0 | +| 2031-32 | £0 | −£15 million | £0 | + +PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. + +Household net income rises by less than income tax falls. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, goes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences. + +About 528,000 households, with 1.0 million people, gain in 2027-28, an average of £56 a year each. This is close to the explainer's estimate of 500,000 pensioners. The number rises to 860,000 households in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average gains of £96 and £134. In 2027-28, no household loses. In 2028-29 and 2029-30, about 3,000 households lose. Household 5 above shows one way this can happen: a claimant aged 75 or over who leaves Pension Credit and loses the free TV licence. + +Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero in the top three deciles. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income. + +```chart +{ + "type": "bar", + "title": "Average change in household net income by income decile", + "subtitle": "Change from the Pension Tax Allowance, all households", + "xKey": "decile", + "series": [ + { + "key": "y2027", + "name": "2027-28", + "color": "primary" + }, + { + "key": "y2028", + "name": "2028-29", + "color": "secondary" + }, + { + "key": "y2029", + "name": "2029-30", + "color": "tertiary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "decile": "1st", + "y2027": 1.04, + "y2028": 3.44, + "y2029": 6.44 + }, + { + "decile": "2nd", + "y2027": 1.54, + "y2028": 4.35, + "y2029": 7.6 + }, + { + "decile": "3rd", + "y2027": 1.77, + "y2028": 5.65, + "y2029": 10.45 + }, + { + "decile": "4th", + "y2027": 1.47, + "y2028": 3.99, + "y2029": 6.65 + }, + { + "decile": "5th", + "y2027": 1.45, + "y2028": 3.74, + "y2029": 5.95 + }, + { + "decile": "6th", + "y2027": 0.91, + "y2028": 2.35, + "y2029": 3.94 + }, + { + "decile": "7th", + "y2027": 1.39, + "y2028": 2.95, + "y2029": 4.53 + }, + { + "decile": "8th", + "y2027": 0.3, + "y2028": 0.61, + "y2029": 1.18 + }, + { + "decile": "9th", + "y2027": 0.13, + "y2028": 0.56, + "y2029": 0.95 + }, + { + "decile": "10th", + "y2027": 0.11, + "y2028": 0.37, + "y2029": 0.71 + } + ], + "yLabel": "Average change in net income", + "format": { + "prefix": "£", + "decimals": 0 + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast; provisional." +} +``` + +```chart +{ + "type": "bar", + "title": "Change in household net income by income decile, as a share of income", + "subtitle": "Change from the Pension Tax Allowance, all households", + "xKey": "decile", + "series": [ + { + "key": "y2027", + "name": "2027-28", + "color": "primary" + }, + { + "key": "y2028", + "name": "2028-29", + "color": "secondary" + }, + { + "key": "y2029", + "name": "2029-30", + "color": "tertiary" + } + ], + "data": [ + { + "decile": "1st", + "y2027": 0.004, + "y2028": 0.0132, + "y2029": 0.0245 + }, + { + "decile": "2nd", + "y2027": 0.0039, + "y2028": 0.0107, + "y2029": 0.0186 + }, + { + "decile": "3rd", + "y2027": 0.004, + "y2028": 0.0124, + "y2029": 0.0225 + }, + { + "decile": "4th", + "y2027": 0.003, + "y2028": 0.008, + "y2029": 0.0132 + }, + { + "decile": "5th", + "y2027": 0.0027, + "y2028": 0.0068, + "y2029": 0.0107 + }, + { + "decile": "6th", + "y2027": 0.0015, + "y2028": 0.0039, + "y2029": 0.0064 + }, + { + "decile": "7th", + "y2027": 0.0021, + "y2028": 0.0044, + "y2029": 0.0067 + }, + { + "decile": "8th", + "y2027": 0.0004, + "y2028": 0.0008, + "y2029": 0.0016 + }, + { + "decile": "9th", + "y2027": 0.0002, + "y2028": 0.0006, + "y2029": 0.0011 + }, + { + "decile": "10th", + "y2027": 0.0001, + "y2028": 0.0002, + "y2029": 0.0004 + } + ], + "yLabel": "Change in net income", + "format": { + "suffix": "%", + "decimals": 3 + }, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast; provisional." +} +``` + +The poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. + ## Assumptions and limitations -- The analysis covers single pensioners in household calculations. It is not a microsimulation, and it makes no population-wide estimates of its own; the costs and counts above come from HM Treasury. +- The worked examples and charts are household calculations for example pensioners. The population results are a static microsimulation; the Treasury's costing and counts come from its own model and data. - DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that lower guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ slightly. - The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. @@ -742,6 +953,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls b - PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- The population results use PolicyEngine UK's take-up assumptions and its own Pension Credit guarantee (£245 a week in 2027-28), as the dashboard does, not the £247 estimate in the household examples. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. - The calculations include no other Budget 2026 measure. The Budget raises the tax rates on property and savings income from April 2027, which would leave more tax to pay on such income with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK takes a person's earnings as the lowest slice of their income when it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts, and it takes tax reductions off that tax first. We apply the PTA in the same way. The couples' examples do not include local Council Tax Reduction schemes for working-age households. From 0a14414a7efb07acccb01262454e8920e72eb7eb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:34:09 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 32/68] Use two decimals on the decile share chart's labels Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index d252c6f37..bb1dae19b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -935,7 +935,7 @@ Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero "yLabel": "Change in net income", "format": { "suffix": "%", - "decimals": 3 + "decimals": 2 }, "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast; provisional." } From 7f82d3aa9b1d307944622e956cf66a294458ca11 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:34:41 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 33/68] Add the measure's reach and link the dashboard's final URL Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 6 ++++-- 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 80f746373..dc048b8ec 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ The same saving by litres bought a week, with the duty and VAT saved each week i | 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £1.44 | £2.40 | £3.67 | £70 | £25 | £45 | | 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £2.16 | £3.60 | £5.50 | £106 | £38 | £68 | -The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28, the same per litre as the examples above. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. +The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28, the same per litre as the examples above. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. @@ -342,6 +342,8 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in 2026-27. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. +The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million motorists and businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel. + Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. 61% of people in 2026-27 and 73% in 2027-28 live in a household whose net income rises by more than 0.01%. The others live in households that buy no petrol or diesel, or very little. In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. @@ -520,4 +522,4 @@ The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliamen We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/budgets/autumn-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. From 841319208afe6bad418a5f8369f8fd836140d40b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:36:29 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 34/68] Group the PTA post into household and population impacts The rules, then "Household impacts" (worked examples, net income and other benefits, the PTA by year, income tax, net income, marginal tax rates), then "Population impacts" (budgetary impact with the Treasury costing beside ours, who gains, distributional impact, poverty and inequality), then assumptions and methodology. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 26 +++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 18 insertions(+), 8 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index bb1dae19b..ba38fa95e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -29,11 +29,11 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. -The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. +## Household impacts -## Worked examples +This section shows the PTA's effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations for 2027-28 unless stated. -### Income tax +### Worked examples The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives the same income tax for each. @@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PT A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. -## The PTA in each tax year +### The PTA in each tax year The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is all pension income, such as the State Pension and a private pension. The results depend only on total income, not on its source. @@ -319,7 +319,7 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is al The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £250 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £750. -## Income tax by total income +### Income tax by total income ```chart { @@ -453,7 +453,7 @@ The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,038, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,319. Above £13,319, the PTA has no effect. -## Net income +### Net income This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income counts pension income and every tax and benefit that applies: here, Pension Credit, income tax, the £200 Winter Fuel Payment and the £180 TV licence fee. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The pensioner has no housing costs, so Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction do not apply. @@ -595,7 +595,7 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247 a week, or £12,860 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,880 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £94, at £13,038, and the gain falls to zero at £13,319. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,860 to £12,932. -## Marginal tax rates +### Marginal tax rates The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the pensioner does not keep, after income tax and any loss of benefits. It is 1 minus the change in household net income, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, here for a £1 rise in private pension. @@ -732,10 +732,14 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,860, 0% from there to £13,038, 53.3% from £13,038 to £13,319, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. -## Population results +## Population impacts We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The results are static, with no behavioural response, and provisional: the dashboard has not yet published its own run for this measure, and its figures may differ. +### Budgetary impact + +The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. + | Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Household net income: PolicyEngine | | -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | @@ -749,8 +753,12 @@ PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and h Household net income rises by less than income tax falls. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, goes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences. +### Who gains + About 528,000 households, with 1.0 million people, gain in 2027-28, an average of £56 a year each. This is close to the explainer's estimate of 500,000 pensioners. The number rises to 860,000 households in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average gains of £96 and £134. In 2027-28, no household loses. In 2028-29 and 2029-30, about 3,000 households lose. Household 5 above shows one way this can happen: a claimant aged 75 or over who leaves Pension Credit and loses the free TV licence. +### Distributional impact + Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero in the top three deciles. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income. ```chart @@ -941,6 +949,8 @@ Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero } ``` +### Poverty and inequality + The poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. ## Assumptions and limitations From fac5dbb0df1589ae37e24d2ed55dbf5abb2bf854 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:36:34 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 35/68] Drop the provisional label from the population results Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 10 +++++----- 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index dc048b8ec..28255744e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ Key figures: - On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year, about 19 litres a week, pays £34 less in total: £12 in 2026-27 and £22 in 2027-28. -- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). PolicyEngine's provisional estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. +- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). PolicyEngine's estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. - In 2027-28, household net income rises by £18 a year on average, from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes @@ -332,7 +332,7 @@ Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed ## Population results -PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below are provisional, from a run of 28 October 2026. +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below come from its run of 28 October 2026. | Tax year | PolicyEngine: static, household fuel | HM Treasury: Table 6.1, with behavioural response | | --------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | @@ -423,7 +423,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0 }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, provisional run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." } ``` @@ -502,7 +502,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "decimals": 3, "suffix": "%" }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, provisional run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." } ``` @@ -510,7 +510,7 @@ The poverty rate does not change. Official poverty measures, and PolicyEngine's, ## Assumptions and limitations -- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from the dashboard's provisional microsimulation, which is static and covers household fuel only. +- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from the dashboard's microsimulation, which is static and covers household fuel only. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. From e23c33db52631db1b593cc1d12e4284e30982f2d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:37:22 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 36/68] Say that we reproduced the population results in our own run Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 2 ++ 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 28255744e..191113165 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -523,3 +523,5 @@ The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliamen We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. + +The population results come from the dashboard's run of the measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. From 59815bde67045ed36492c0fc8b5d33886b817e71 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:37:57 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 37/68] Let bar charts hide value labels; drop "provisional" from the PTA post Bar chart blocks take "valueLabels": false, for charts with several series where the labels above each bar overlap; the tooltip still gives each value. The PTA post's two decile charts use it, and the population section no longer calls its figures provisional. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 8 ++++--- .../__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx | 22 +++++++++++++++++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx | 19 ++++++++++++---- 3 files changed, 42 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index ba38fa95e..6bd74f02d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -734,7 +734,7 @@ Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls b ## Population impacts -We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The results are static, with no behavioural response, and provisional: the dashboard has not yet published its own run for this measure, and its figures may differ. +We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The results are static, with no behavioural response. ### Budgetary impact @@ -851,7 +851,8 @@ Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0 }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast; provisional." + "valueLabels": false, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast." } ``` @@ -945,7 +946,8 @@ Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero "suffix": "%", "decimals": 2 }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast; provisional." + "valueLabels": false, + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 microsimulation on the Microcosm UK dataset and the OBR's October 2026 forecast." } ``` diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx index dee6f2a17..4ae96881d 100644 --- a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx +++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx @@ -184,6 +184,28 @@ describe("BlogChart", () => { expect(legend).toEqual(["Census", "PolicyEngine prediction"]); }); + test("valueLabels false draws the bars without value labels", () => { + const { container } = render( + , + ); + const texts = [...container.querySelectorAll("svg text")].map( + (el) => el.textContent, + ); + for (const t of ["+0.07", "+0.22", "−0.06", "+0.86"]) { + expect(texts).not.toContain(t); + } + expect(texts).toContain("+1.00 pp"); + expect(container.querySelectorAll(".recharts-bar-rectangle")).toHaveLength( + 4, + ); + }); + + test("rejects a non-boolean valueLabels", () => { + expect( + parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify({ ...SPEC, valueLabels: "no" })), + ).toBeNull(); + }); + test("names the figure by its title", () => { render(); expect( diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx index 5f0be9873..272bea86a 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx @@ -22,8 +22,13 @@ * "data": [{ "group": "All people", "census": 0.07 }, ...], * "yLabel": "...", * "format": { "decimals": 2, "suffix": " pp", "signed": true }, + * "valueLabels": false, * "source": "..." * } + * + * "valueLabels" (default true) prints each bar's value above it. Set it to + * false when several series make the labels overlap; the tooltip still + * gives each value. */ import { type ReactNode, useId } from "react"; @@ -88,6 +93,7 @@ export interface BlogBarChartSpec { data: BlogChartRow[]; yLabel?: string; format?: BlogChartFormat; + valueLabels?: boolean; source?: string; height?: number; } @@ -100,6 +106,9 @@ export type BlogChartSpec = function parseBarSpec(s: Record): BlogBarChartSpec | null { if (s.type !== "bar" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; + if (s.valueLabels !== undefined && typeof s.valueLabels !== "boolean") { + return null; + } if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length === 0) return null; if ( @@ -244,10 +253,12 @@ function BarBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogBarChartSpec }) { radius={[2, 2, 0, 0]} isAnimationActive={false} > - } - /> + {spec.valueLabels !== false && ( + } + /> + )} ))} From b97efa1215ed4ac1bd1dada5b1f9d48ba39296ee Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:39:33 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 38/68] Finish Max's review: reach as households, whole-pound State Pension Replace the people-affected shares with the 74% of households that buy petrol or diesel, round the State Pension to the pound. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 6 +++--- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 191113165..9bc1c139a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -312,7 +312,7 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi ## Net income and other benefits -The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036.40 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. | Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | @@ -342,9 +342,9 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in 2026-27. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. -The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million motorists and businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel. +The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million motorists and businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. -Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. 61% of people in 2026-27 and 73% in 2027-28 live in a household whose net income rises by more than 0.01%. The others live in households that buy no petrol or diesel, or very little. +Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. From cdeb356c2c567fdea1bf73974480c9fba5ee5ba3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:39:46 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 39/68] Add a line chart type for blog posts, and valueLabels for bar charts BlogLineChart.tsx draws series against a numeric x axis, with step series, markers labelled in a strip above the plot, an x axis format, a y axis fitted to the data on request, and a y axis width that follows the tick labels. blogChartUtils gains a thousands separator, a niceTicks option that leaves zero out, and validFormat. Bar charts take "valueLabels": false when several series make the labels overlap. chart-standards.md documents both. Used by the Budget 2026 posts (#1457, #1459). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md | 14 +- .../__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx | 22 ++ .../components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx | 140 +++++++++ website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx | 28 +- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 289 ++++++++++++++++++ website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts | 39 ++- 6 files changed, 514 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-) create mode 100644 website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx create mode 100644 website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx diff --git a/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md b/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md index 3e65f9ef2..e4dcc100e 100644 --- a/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md +++ b/docs/engineering/skills/chart-standards.md @@ -242,9 +242,9 @@ import { Posts draw charts as ` ```chart ` fenced blocks holding a JSON spec. `website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx` parses each block and wraps it in a figure with -title, subtitle, watermark and source line. `bar` (in `BlogChart.tsx`) and `waterfall` -(`BlogWaterfallChart.tsx`) draw with Recharts, Inter, the `--chart-*` tokens and ui-kit's -shared axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles. `stateMap` (`BlogStateMap.tsx`) draws an 11 by +title, subtitle, watermark and source line. `bar` (in `BlogChart.tsx`), `line` +(`BlogLineChart.tsx`) and `waterfall` (`BlogWaterfallChart.tsx`) draw with Recharts, Inter, +the `--chart-*` tokens and ui-kit's shared axis, grid, tooltip and legend styles. `stateMap` (`BlogStateMap.tsx`) draws an 11 by 8 tile grid shaded from `--background` to `--primary`. Each file's header comment documents its spec. @@ -254,6 +254,14 @@ its spec. - Do not add matplotlib PNGs or Plotly JSON to new posts. When a post needs a chart type the website lacks (a line or scatter chart, say), add the type to `website/src/components/blog/` with tests before the post uses it. +- `line` draws series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax or benefit schedule by income. + Give it the exact breakpoints plus regular points (every £100, say) so the tooltip has detail + without drawing anything inexact. `"step": true` holds a series' value to the next point, for + marginal rates; `markers` label named x values in a strip above the plot; `xFormat` formats + the x axis; `"yIncludesZero": false` fits the y axis to levels far from zero. +- `format` and `xFormat` take `"separator": true` to group thousands (£13,036). +- A `bar` chart with several series can set `"valueLabels": false` when the labels above the + bars would overlap; the tooltip still gives each value. - `website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart-posts.test.ts` fails CI when a post's chart block does not parse. Keep the chart's numbers identical to the tables and text beside it. - The website builds Tailwind with the `tw:` prefix, so ui-kit components that rely on diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx index dee6f2a17..4ae96881d 100644 --- a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx +++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-chart.test.tsx @@ -184,6 +184,28 @@ describe("BlogChart", () => { expect(legend).toEqual(["Census", "PolicyEngine prediction"]); }); + test("valueLabels false draws the bars without value labels", () => { + const { container } = render( + , + ); + const texts = [...container.querySelectorAll("svg text")].map( + (el) => el.textContent, + ); + for (const t of ["+0.07", "+0.22", "−0.06", "+0.86"]) { + expect(texts).not.toContain(t); + } + expect(texts).toContain("+1.00 pp"); + expect(container.querySelectorAll(".recharts-bar-rectangle")).toHaveLength( + 4, + ); + }); + + test("rejects a non-boolean valueLabels", () => { + expect( + parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify({ ...SPEC, valueLabels: "no" })), + ).toBeNull(); + }); + test("names the figure by its title", () => { render(); expect( diff --git a/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..8cd33eef5 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/__tests__/components/blog-line-chart.test.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,140 @@ +import { cloneElement, type ReactElement } from "react"; +import { render, screen } from "@testing-library/react"; +import { describe, expect, test, vi } from "vitest"; + +import { + BlogChart, + formatChartValue, + niceTicks, + parseBlogChartSpec, +} from "@/components/blog/BlogChart"; + +// jsdom has no layout, so give the responsive container a fixed size. +vi.mock("recharts", async (importOriginal) => { + const mod = await importOriginal(); + return { + ...mod, + ResponsiveContainer: ({ + children, + height, + }: { + children: ReactElement<{ width?: number; height?: number }>; + height?: number | string; + }) => + cloneElement(children, { + width: 600, + height: typeof height === "number" ? height : 240, + }), + }; +}); + +const SPEC = { + type: "line", + title: "Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28", + xKey: "income", + xLabel: "Total income", + series: [ + { key: "baseline", name: "Without the allowance", color: "quinary" }, + { key: "reform", name: "With the allowance", color: "primary" }, + ], + data: [ + { income: 12000, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 12570, baseline: 0, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13036.4, baseline: 93.28, reform: 0 }, + { income: 13800, baseline: 246, reform: 246 }, + ], + markers: [{ x: 12570, label: "Personal Allowance" }], + format: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + xFormat: { prefix: "£", decimals: 0, separator: true }, + source: "PolicyEngine UK", +}; + +const parse = (spec: unknown) => parseBlogChartSpec(JSON.stringify(spec)); + +describe("line chart spec", () => { + test("a valid spec parses as a line chart", () => { + expect(parse(SPEC)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test("yIncludesZero false parses", () => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, yIncludesZero: false })?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test("a step series parses", () => { + const spec = { + ...SPEC, + series: [{ key: "reform", name: "Rate", step: true }], + }; + expect(parse(spec)?.type).toBe("line"); + }); + + test.each([ + ["x values out of order", { data: [...SPEC.data].reverse() }], + [ + "a row missing a series value", + { data: [...SPEC.data.slice(0, 3), { income: 13800, baseline: 246 }] }, + ], + [ + "a string x value", + { data: [{ ...SPEC.data[0], income: "low" }, SPEC.data[1]] }, + ], + ["one data row", { data: [SPEC.data[0]] }], + ["a marker without a label", { markers: [{ x: 12570 }] }], + [ + "a non-boolean step", + { series: [{ key: "reform", name: "R", step: "yes" }] }, + ], + ["a bad x format", { xFormat: { separator: "yes" } }], + ["a bad x label", { xLabel: 3 }], + ["a non-boolean yIncludesZero", { yIncludesZero: "no" }], + ])("rejects %s", (_, override) => { + expect(parse({ ...SPEC, ...override })).toBeNull(); + }); +}); + +describe("line chart rendering", () => { + test("renders the title, series names, marker label and source", () => { + render(); + expect( + screen.getByText("Income tax for a single pensioner, 2027-28"), + ).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Without the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("With the allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("Personal Allowance")).toBeInTheDocument(); + expect(screen.getByText("PolicyEngine UK")).toBeInTheDocument(); + }); + + test("an invalid spec renders nothing", () => { + const { container } = render( + , + ); + expect(container).toBeEmptyDOMElement(); + }); +}); + +describe("chart helpers", () => { + test("the separator groups thousands", () => { + expect( + formatChartValue(13036.4, { prefix: "£", decimals: 2, separator: true }), + ).toBe("£13,036.40"); + expect(formatChartValue(-1234567, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe( + "−1,234,567", + ); + expect(formatChartValue(999, { decimals: 0, separator: true })).toBe("999"); + }); + + test("without the separator, values stay ungrouped", () => { + expect(formatChartValue(13036, { decimals: 0 })).toBe("13036"); + }); + + test("niceTicks can leave zero out of the range", () => { + const axis = niceTicks([12000, 13800], 6, false); + expect(axis.domain[0]).toBeGreaterThan(0); + expect(axis.ticks[0]).toBeLessThanOrEqual(12000); + expect(axis.ticks.at(-1)).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(13800); + }); + + test("niceTicks includes zero by default", () => { + expect(niceTicks([12000, 13800]).domain[0]).toBe(0); + }); +}); diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx index d2bd74c1e..272bea86a 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogChart.tsx @@ -9,8 +9,8 @@ * Posts carry data, not styling. Styles are inline token variables because * the website's Tailwind build uses a prefix that ui-kit's utility classes lack. * - * Types: "bar" (below), "waterfall" (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" - * (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and + * Types: "bar" (below), "line" (BlogLineChart.tsx), "waterfall" + * (BlogWaterfallChart.tsx) and "stateMap" (BlogStateMap.tsx). Every type takes an optional "title", "subtitle" and * "source"; an invalid spec renders nothing. * * Spec (type "bar"): @@ -22,8 +22,13 @@ * "data": [{ "group": "All people", "census": 0.07 }, ...], * "yLabel": "...", * "format": { "decimals": 2, "suffix": " pp", "signed": true }, + * "valueLabels": false, * "source": "..." * } + * + * "valueLabels" (default true) prints each bar's value above it. Set it to + * false when several series make the labels overlap; the tooltip still + * gives each value. */ import { type ReactNode, useId } from "react"; @@ -58,6 +63,7 @@ import { niceTicks, validSharedFields, } from "./blogChartUtils"; +import { type BlogLineSpec, LineBody, parseLineSpec } from "./BlogLineChart"; import { type BlogStateMapSpec, StateMapBody, @@ -87,17 +93,22 @@ export interface BlogBarChartSpec { data: BlogChartRow[]; yLabel?: string; format?: BlogChartFormat; + valueLabels?: boolean; source?: string; height?: number; } export type BlogChartSpec = | BlogBarChartSpec + | BlogLineSpec | BlogWaterfallSpec | BlogStateMapSpec; function parseBarSpec(s: Record): BlogBarChartSpec | null { if (s.type !== "bar" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; + if (s.valueLabels !== undefined && typeof s.valueLabels !== "boolean") { + return null; + } if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length === 0) return null; if ( @@ -134,6 +145,8 @@ export function parseBlogChartSpec(raw: string): BlogChartSpec | null { switch (spec.type) { case "bar": return parseBarSpec(spec); + case "line": + return parseLineSpec(spec); case "waterfall": return parseWaterfallSpec(spec); case "stateMap": @@ -240,10 +253,12 @@ function BarBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogBarChartSpec }) { radius={[2, 2, 0, 0]} isAnimationActive={false} > - } - /> + {spec.valueLabels !== false && ( + } + /> + )} ))} @@ -325,6 +340,7 @@ export function BlogChart({ data }: { data: string | string[] }) { return ( {spec.type === "bar" && } + {spec.type === "line" && } {spec.type === "waterfall" && } {spec.type === "stateMap" && } diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..94e6ed510 --- /dev/null +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -0,0 +1,289 @@ +"use client"; + +/** + * Line body for ```chart blocks of type "line". + * + * Draws one or more series against a numeric x axis, such as a tax schedule + * by income. Both axes round out to nice ticks; the y axis includes zero + * unless "yIncludesZero" is false, and the x axis spans the data only. A series with "step": true holds each value + * until the next point, for rates that jump at thresholds. Optional markers + * draw dashed vertical lines at named x values, labelled horizontally in a + * strip above the plot, one row per marker, so labels cross neither the + * data nor each other. + * + * Spec: + * { + * "type": "line", + * "title": "...", "subtitle": "...", + * "xKey": "income", + * "xLabel": "Total income", + * "series": [ + * { "key": "baseline", "name": "Without the reform", "color": "quinary" }, + * { "key": "reform", "name": "With the reform", "color": "primary", "step": false } + * ], + * "data": [{ "income": 12000, "baseline": 0, "reform": 0 }, ...], + * "markers": [{ "x": 12570, "label": "Personal Allowance" }], + * "yLabel": "...", + * "format": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "xFormat": { "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0, "separator": true }, + * "source": "..." + * } + * + * Data rows must be sorted by x, and every row needs a number for every + * series, or the spec is rejected. + */ + +import { + AXIS_STYLE, + GRID_STYLE, + LEGEND_STYLE, + TOOLTIP_STYLE, +} from "@policyengine/ui-kit/charts"; +import { + CartesianGrid, + Legend, + Line, + LineChart, + ReferenceLine, + ResponsiveContainer, + Tooltip, + XAxis, + YAxis, +} from "recharts"; + +import { + type BlogChartFormat, + type BlogChartRow, + type ChartColorName, + chartColor, + formatChartValue, + isFiniteNumber, + isRecord, + niceTicks, + validFormat, +} from "./blogChartUtils"; + +export interface BlogLineSeries { + key: string; + name: string; + color?: ChartColorName; + step?: boolean; +} + +export interface BlogLineMarker { + x: number; + label: string; +} + +export interface BlogLineSpec { + type: "line"; + title?: string; + subtitle?: string; + xKey: string; + xLabel?: string; + series: BlogLineSeries[]; + data: BlogChartRow[]; + markers?: BlogLineMarker[]; + yLabel?: string; + /** False fits the y axis to the data, for levels far from zero. */ + yIncludesZero?: boolean; + format?: BlogChartFormat; + xFormat?: BlogChartFormat; + source?: string; + height?: number; +} + +export function parseLineSpec(s: Record): BlogLineSpec | null { + if (s.type !== "line" || typeof s.xKey !== "string") return null; + if (s.xLabel !== undefined && typeof s.xLabel !== "string") return null; + if (!validFormat(s.xFormat)) return null; + if (s.yIncludesZero !== undefined && typeof s.yIncludesZero !== "boolean") { + return null; + } + if (!Array.isArray(s.series) || s.series.length === 0) return null; + if ( + !s.series.every( + (x) => + isRecord(x) && + typeof x.key === "string" && + typeof x.name === "string" && + (x.step === undefined || typeof x.step === "boolean"), + ) + ) { + return null; + } + if (!Array.isArray(s.data) || s.data.length < 2) return null; + const keys = (s.series as BlogLineSeries[]).map((x) => x.key); + const xKey = s.xKey; + let previous = -Infinity; + for (const row of s.data) { + if (!isRecord(row) || !isFiniteNumber(row[xKey])) return null; + if (row[xKey] < previous) return null; + previous = row[xKey]; + if (!keys.every((k) => isFiniteNumber(row[k]))) return null; + } + if ( + s.markers !== undefined && + !( + Array.isArray(s.markers) && + s.markers.every( + (m) => + isRecord(m) && isFiniteNumber(m.x) && typeof m.label === "string", + ) + ) + ) { + return null; + } + return s as unknown as BlogLineSpec; +} + +const MARKER_ROW_HEIGHT = 16; + +interface MarkerLabelProps { + viewBox?: { x?: number; y?: number }; + value: string; + row: number; + rows: number; + anchor: "start" | "end"; +} + +/** A marker's label in the strip above the plot, in its own row, beside its + * line: right of it in the left half of the plot, left of it in the right + * half. */ +function MarkerLabel({ viewBox, value, row, rows, anchor }: MarkerLabelProps) { + const x = Number(viewBox?.x); + const y = Number(viewBox?.y); + if (!Number.isFinite(x) || !Number.isFinite(y)) return null; + return ( + + {value} + + ); +} + +export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { + const format = spec.format ?? {}; + const xFormat = spec.xFormat ?? {}; + const xs = spec.data.map((row) => row[spec.xKey] as number); + const values = spec.data.flatMap((row) => + spec.series.map((s) => row[s.key] as number), + ); + const yAxis = niceTicks(values, 4, spec.yIncludesZero ?? true); + const xAxis = niceTicks(xs, 6, false); + const xMin = Math.min(...xs); + const xMax = Math.max(...xs); + const xTicks = xAxis.ticks.filter((t) => t >= xMin && t <= xMax); + const markerRows = spec.markers?.length ?? 0; + const yTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...format, decimals: yAxis.decimals }); + // Room for the longest tick label, plus the rotated axis title. + const yAxisWidth = + Math.max(...yAxis.ticks.map((t) => yTick(t).length)) * 7 + + (spec.yLabel ? 28 : 12); + const xTick = (v: number) => + formatChartValue(v, { ...xFormat, decimals: xAxis.decimals }); + + return ( + + + + + + {(spec.markers ?? []).map((m, i) => ( + ( + + )} + /> + ))} + formatChartValue(Number(x), xFormat)} + formatter={(value, name) => [ + formatChartValue(Number(value), format), + String(name), + ]} + /> + + {spec.series.map((s, i) => ( + + ))} + + + ); +} diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts index 643b3c0bf..aed48956f 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts +++ b/website/src/components/blog/blogChartUtils.ts @@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ export interface BlogChartFormat { prefix?: string; suffix?: string; signed?: boolean; + /** Group thousands with commas, as in £13,036. */ + separator?: boolean; } export type BlogChartRow = Record; @@ -30,24 +32,36 @@ export function formatChartValue( value: number, format: BlogChartFormat = {}, ): string { - const { decimals = 1, prefix = "", suffix = "", signed = false } = format; + const { + decimals = 1, + prefix = "", + suffix = "", + signed = false, + separator = false, + } = format; const digits = Math.min(MAX_DECIMALS, Math.max(0, Math.round(decimals))); - const magnitude = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); - const isZero = Number(magnitude) === 0; + const fixed = Math.abs(value).toFixed(digits); + const magnitude = separator + ? fixed.replace(/^\d+/, (whole) => whole.replace(/\B(?=(\d{3})+$)/g, ",")) + : fixed; + const isZero = Number(fixed) === 0; const sign = value < 0 && !isZero ? "−" : signed && !isZero ? "+" : ""; return `${sign}${prefix}${magnitude}${suffix}`; } /** * Round the value range out to a step of 1, 2, 2.5 or 5 times a power of ten, - * including zero, so tick labels land on round numbers. + * including zero unless `includeZero` is false, so tick labels land on round + * numbers. */ export function niceTicks( values: number[], target = 4, + includeZero = true, ): { domain: [number, number]; ticks: number[]; decimals: number } { - const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), 0); - const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), 0); + const seed = includeZero || values.length === 0 ? 0 : values[0]; + const lo = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.min(a, b), seed); + const hi = values.reduce((a, b) => Math.max(a, b), seed); // A span under 1e-9 gets a unit axis: a smaller step underflows, or needs // more decimals than toFixed allows. const span = hi - lo >= 1e-9 ? hi - lo : 1; @@ -90,10 +104,16 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { if (s.height !== undefined && !(isFiniteNumber(s.height) && s.height > 0)) { return false; } - const { format } = s; + return validFormat(s.format); +} + +/** An optional BlogChartFormat with every field of the right type. */ +export function validFormat(format: unknown): boolean { + const optionalString = (v: unknown) => + v === undefined || typeof v === "string"; if (format === undefined) return true; if (!isRecord(format)) return false; - const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed } = format; + const { decimals, prefix, suffix, signed, separator } = format; return ( (decimals === undefined || (Number.isInteger(decimals) && @@ -101,7 +121,8 @@ export function validSharedFields(s: Record): boolean { (decimals as number) <= MAX_DECIMALS)) && optionalString(prefix) && optionalString(suffix) && - (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") + (signed === undefined || typeof signed === "boolean") && + (separator === undefined || typeof separator === "boolean") ); } From 40799c71a0e5d415c5cb9e7cc645b06e910c2940 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:40:11 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 40/68] Give the household fuel duty base in the Treasury gap text MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit PolicyEngine's household petrol and diesel carry £13.4bn of duty in 2026-27 (local run on the certified data and October forecast), against the OBR's £24bn of receipts. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 9bc1c139a..3ccb23306 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -340,7 +340,7 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe | 2027-28 | −£521 million | −£780 million | | 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | -PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in 2026-27. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. +PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry about £13 billion of the £24 billion of fuel duty receipts that the OBR expects in 2026-27. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million motorists and businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. From 932ae46f726eb840f3e559b525e33ca5492c19eb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:43:31 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 41/68] Keep line chart axis labels, axis title and legend apart The first x tick label no longer touches the lowest y tick label at the plot's corner, and the legend sits clear of the x axis title. Checked on every chart in the PTA post at 1280 and 375 pixels wide. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx | 15 +++++++++++++-- 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx index 94e6ed510..181038184 100644 --- a/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx +++ b/website/src/components/blog/BlogLineChart.tsx @@ -214,13 +214,16 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { tick={AXIS_STYLE} axisLine={false} tickLine={false} + // Drop the x tick labels below the lowest y tick label, which + // sits on the axis line at the plot's corner. + tickMargin={10} tickFormatter={xTick} label={ spec.xLabel ? { value: spec.xLabel, position: "insideBottom", - offset: -4, + offset: -14, style: AXIS_STYLE, } : undefined @@ -270,7 +273,15 @@ export function LineBody({ spec }: { spec: BlogLineSpec }) { String(name), ]} /> - + {spec.series.map((s, i) => ( Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:43:44 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 42/68] Show the measure on its own in the net income table, per Max MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Rename the columns to without and with the measure, note that the Pension Tax Allowance would remove the pensioner's £93 of income tax, describe the population source as a run of the dashboard's measure (the dashboard has not published it yet), and keep the Budget's reach wording (35 million motorists, as well as businesses). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 26 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 14 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 3ccb23306..478aea5b7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -314,11 +314,13 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. -| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income before the Budget | Net income after the Budget | Change | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------- | --------------------------- | ------ | -| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £22 | -| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £22 | -| Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,616, Council Tax Reduction £1,544 | £19,917 | £19,939 | £22 | +| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income without the measure | Net income with the measure | Change | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | --------------------------- | ------ | +| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £22 | +| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £22 | +| Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,616, Council Tax Reduction £1,544 | £19,917 | £19,939 | £22 | + +The table shows the fuel duty measure on its own. It leaves out the Budget's other measures: under the Pension Tax Allowance, for example, the pensioner would pay no income tax in 2027-28, instead of £93. In each household, net income rises by the £22 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit, income tax or National Insurance amount changes. In 2026-27, each household gains £12 in the same way. @@ -326,13 +328,13 @@ The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for thre - **Means tests use income, not spending.** Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income and capital. Fuel duty enters only the household's taxes, so the lower pump price does not reduce any award. - **Benefit uprating does not change.** April 2027 uprating uses September 2026 inflation, before the measure applies. April 2028 uprating uses September 2027 inflation. The duty rate is the same with and without the Budget in both September 2026 (52.95p) and September 2027 (60.59p), so the measure does not change the September 2027 annual inflation rate through pump prices. -- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate before and after the Budget: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. +- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate with and without the measure: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. ## Population results -PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below come from its run of 28 October 2026. +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below come from a run of the dashboard's measure on 28 October 2026. | Tax year | PolicyEngine: static, household fuel | HM Treasury: Table 6.1, with behavioural response | | --------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | @@ -342,7 +344,7 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry about £13 billion of the £24 billion of fuel duty receipts that the OBR expects in 2026-27. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. -The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million motorists and businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. +The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million individual motorists, as well as businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. @@ -423,7 +425,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "prefix": "£", "decimals": 0 }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine, run of the Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard's fuel duty measure, 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." } ``` @@ -502,7 +504,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "decimals": 3, "suffix": "%" }, - "source": "Source: PolicyEngine Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard, run of 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." + "source": "Source: PolicyEngine, run of the Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard's fuel duty measure, 28 October 2026 (PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, OBR October 2026 forecast)." } ``` @@ -510,7 +512,7 @@ The poverty rate does not change. Official poverty measures, and PolicyEngine's, ## Assumptions and limitations -- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from the dashboard's microsimulation, which is static and covers household fuel only. +- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from a microsimulation of the dashboard's measure, which is static and covers household fuel only. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. @@ -524,4 +526,4 @@ We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. -The population results come from the dashboard's run of the measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. +The population results come from a run of the dashboard's measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. From 17d5de93c3f8a2992468283e203c80e084851f13 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:45:59 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 43/68] Round the PTA post's worked tables to whole pounds Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 42 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 6bd74f02d..c79b94455 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -39,11 +39,11 @@ The explainer gives five example pensioners for 2027-28. PolicyEngine UK gives t | Income | Total income | Income tax without the PTA | PTA used | Income tax with the PTA | | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------ | -------------------------- | -------- | ----------------------- | -| Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | £0.00 | -| Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970.00 | £80.00 | £80.00 | £0.00 | -| Full new State Pension only | £13,036.40 | £93.28 | £93.28 | £0.00 | -| Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186.40 | £123.28 | £44.00 | £79.28 | -| Private pension | £13,400.00 | £166.00 | £0.00 | £166.00 | +| Basic and additional State Pension | £10,300 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| Partial new State Pension and a private pension | £12,970 | £80 | £80 | £0 | +| Full new State Pension only | £13,036 | £93 | £93 | £0 | +| Part-time salary, State Pension deferred | £13,186 | £123 | £44 | £79 | +| Private pension | £13,400 | £166 | £0 | £166 | A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income tax without the PTA. This is below the £94 PTA, so the PTA removes the full tax bill. The pensioner with a part-time salary has income £150 above the full new State Pension, so the PTA is £94 − £150 ÷ 3 = £44. The pensioner with £13,400 of private pension has income above £13,319 and gets no PTA. @@ -51,16 +51,18 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Each household owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except households 4 and 5, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ------------- | -| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93.28** | -| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | −⁠£18.66 | — | — | **+⁠£74.62** | -| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | −⁠£60.63 | −⁠£18.66 | — | — | **+⁠£13.99** | -| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800.00 | −⁠£46.00 | −⁠£46.00 | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | -| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860.00 | −⁠£58.00 | −⁠£57.60 | — | — | — | +⁠£180.00 | **−⁠£179.60** | -| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0.00** | -| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93.28** | -| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036.40 | −⁠£93.28 | — | — | — | −⁠£51.30 | — | **+⁠£41.97** | +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ---------- | +| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | +| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£75** | +| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | −⁠£61 | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£14** | +| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800 | −⁠£46 | −⁠£46 | — | — | — | — | **£0** | +| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860 | −⁠£58 | −⁠£58 | — | — | — | +⁠£180 | **−⁠£180** | +| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0** | +| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | +| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | −⁠£51 | — | **+⁠£42** | + +Figures may not sum because of rounding. Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so household 3 keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee, such as household 4, loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. @@ -743,11 +745,11 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, | Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Household net income: PolicyEngine | | -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | -| 2027-28 | −£42 million | −£45 million | +£30 million | -| 2028-29 | −£113 million | −£90 million | +£83 million | -| 2029-30 | −£193 million | −£150 million | +£144 million | -| 2030-31 | £0 | +£50 million | £0 | -| 2031-32 | £0 | −£15 million | £0 | +| 2027-28 | −⁠£42 million | −⁠£45 million | +⁠£30 million | +| 2028-29 | −⁠£113 million | −⁠£90 million | +⁠£83 million | +| 2029-30 | −⁠£193 million | −⁠£150 million | +⁠£144 million | +| 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | +| 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. From 40333ce61791c6621da25349a533cfe5d2f64828 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:46:45 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 44/68] Add a footnote under the PTA budgetary table: both estimates are static Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 4 +++- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index c79b94455..a39765c38 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -740,7 +740,7 @@ We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Micr ### Budgetary impact -The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The costing assumes no behavioural response. The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. +The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. | Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Household net income: PolicyEngine | | -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | @@ -751,6 +751,8 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, | 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | | 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | +_Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ + PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. Household net income rises by less than income tax falls. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, goes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences. From 11b28968d6106ff7952b1e119434102508cb9e2b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:47:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 45/68] Show the PTA's total cost to government in the budgetary table Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 20 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 10 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index a39765c38..69d02c1ea 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -742,20 +742,20 @@ We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Micr The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. -| Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Household net income: PolicyEngine | -| -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ---------------------------------- | -| 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | -| 2027-28 | −⁠£42 million | −⁠£45 million | +⁠£30 million | -| 2028-29 | −⁠£113 million | −⁠£90 million | +⁠£83 million | -| 2029-30 | −⁠£193 million | −⁠£150 million | +⁠£144 million | -| 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | -| 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | +| Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Total cost: PolicyEngine | +| -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ------------------------ | +| 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | +| 2027-28 | −⁠£42 million | −⁠£45 million | −⁠£30 million | +| 2028-29 | −⁠£113 million | −⁠£90 million | −⁠£83 million | +| 2029-30 | −⁠£193 million | −⁠£150 million | −⁠£144 million | +| 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | +| 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | -_Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ +_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. -Household net income rises by less than income tax falls. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, goes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences. +The total cost is smaller than the income tax cut. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences, so households gain £30 million. ### Who gains From d37a09f076a82b25acb71b78267789d9a9e3d4a4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:48:19 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 46/68] Split the cost table into duty, VAT and total, with a basis footnote Add 'Total cost: PolicyEngine' with costs negative, as the Treasury shows them, and an italic footnote on what the total includes, that PolicyEngine is static while the Treasury's costing has a demand response (policy costings, page 13), and the tax-year versus fiscal-year timing, as in the PTA post. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 12 +++++++----- 1 file changed, 7 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 478aea5b7..b4c51fe7e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -336,11 +336,13 @@ Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below come from a run of the dashboard's measure on 28 October 2026. -| Tax year | PolicyEngine: static, household fuel | HM Treasury: Table 6.1, with behavioural response | -| --------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | -| 2026-27 | −£301 million | −£575 million | -| 2027-28 | −£521 million | −£780 million | -| 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | +| Tax year | Fuel duty: PolicyEngine | VAT: PolicyEngine | Total cost: PolicyEngine | HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | +| --------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------- | +| 2026-27 | −⁠£251 million | −⁠£50 million | −⁠£301 million | −⁠£575 million | +| 2027-28 | −⁠£434 million | −⁠£87 million | −⁠£521 million | −⁠£780 million | +| 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | + +_Total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. PolicyEngine's estimate is static and covers fuel that households buy. The Treasury's costing covers every litre of taxable fuel and includes a behavioural response, in which consumers change how much fuel they buy as pump prices change (policy costings, page 13); it does not say whether it includes VAT. PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry about £13 billion of the £24 billion of fuel duty receipts that the OBR expects in 2026-27. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. From c3dcd77c3397cacade81a176c39fd028b8aa5e63 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:48:31 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 47/68] Say that the Treasury's PTA figure covers income tax only Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 69d02c1ea..df23ec84c 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -751,7 +751,7 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, | 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | | 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | -_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ +_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. The Treasury's figure covers income tax only; its costing does not show effects on benefit spending. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. From 8a28327070e9032242dfea767037bcfa2f31eeaa Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:49:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 48/68] Neutral wording and absolute poverty in the PTA post MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Comparisons with the Treasury and the explainer become context, not judgements ("close to", "within £3 million", "slightly", "largest"); the decile pattern is given in numbers; the poverty result names the HBAI absolute measure before housing costs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 22 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 11 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index df23ec84c..fd26a59f1 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and just above the full new State Pension. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and £13,319 in 2027-28. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. Key figures for 2027-28: @@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". -3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. In this sense it works like a non-refundable tax credit, as the Married Couple's Allowance does. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | 2028-29 | £13,478 | £182 | £14,025 | | 2029-30 | £13,816 | £250 | £14,567 | -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. This reading keeps income tax at zero for a pensioner on the full new State Pension, which the Budget states as the aim. +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. Under this reading, a pensioner on the full new State Pension pays no income tax in each year, in line with the Budget's statement that such pensioners "will not be brought into paying tax because of State Pension uprating in this Parliament". ## Household impacts @@ -453,7 +453,7 @@ The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the } ``` -Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,038, just above the full new State Pension, and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,319. Above £13,319, the PTA has no effect. +Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the PTA, income tax starts at £13,038 and reaches the level without the PTA at £13,319. Above £13,319, the PTA has no effect. ### Net income @@ -753,17 +753,17 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, _Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. The Treasury's figure covers income tax only; its costing does not show effects on benefit spending. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ -PolicyEngine's estimate is within £3 million of the Treasury's in 2027-28 and higher in the next two years. The two differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. +The two estimates differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. -The total cost is smaller than the income tax cut. In 2027-28, £12 million of the £42 million tax cut, 29%, comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction, and through lost free TV licences, so households gain £30 million. +In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and of TV licence fees paid by claimants who lose a free licence. ### Who gains -About 528,000 households, with 1.0 million people, gain in 2027-28, an average of £56 a year each. This is close to the explainer's estimate of 500,000 pensioners. The number rises to 860,000 households in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average gains of £96 and £134. In 2027-28, no household loses. In 2028-29 and 2029-30, about 3,000 households lose. Household 5 above shows one way this can happen: a claimant aged 75 or over who leaves Pension Credit and loses the free TV licence. +About 528,000 households, with 1.0 million people, gain in 2027-28, an average of £56 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA. The number rises to 860,000 households in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average gains of £96 and £134. In 2027-28, no household loses. In 2028-29 and 2029-30, about 3,000 households lose. Household 5 above shows one way this can happen: a claimant aged 75 or over who leaves Pension Credit and loses the free TV licence. ### Distributional impact -Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero in the top three deciles. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income. +In 2027-28, the average gain is about £1 to £2 a year in each of the bottom seven income deciles and under £0.50 in each of the top three. In 2029-30, it is £4 to £10 in the bottom seven and £1 or less in the top three. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income. ```chart { @@ -957,18 +957,18 @@ Gains are largest in the lower half of the income distribution and close to zero ### Poverty and inequality -The poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. Absolute poverty uses the official HBAI measure: household income below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. ## Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples and charts are household calculations for example pensioners. The population results are a static microsimulation; the Treasury's costing and counts come from its own model and data. -- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that lower guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ slightly. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant can differ from those here. - The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability; the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set the legal order of steps. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. -- In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has a small amount of property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. +- In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The population results use PolicyEngine UK's take-up assumptions and its own Pension Credit guarantee (£245 a week in 2027-28), as the dashboard does, not the £247 estimate in the household examples. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. - The calculations include no other Budget 2026 measure. The Budget raises the tax rates on property and savings income from April 2027, which would leave more tax to pay on such income with the PTA. From 1f7cb22b8e906dfc315e6681170a6fe6181bfb54 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:49:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 49/68] Language review: state figures, give the Treasury as context Lead the key figure with PolicyEngine's estimate and give the Treasury's for context; replace the share-of-Treasury comparison and the reasons for the gap with the method differences only; drop unchecked causes and comparative phrasing ('the same per litre', 'does not compare', 'agree to within'). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 12 ++++++------ 1 file changed, 6 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index b4c51fe7e..67222f8d3 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ Key figures: - On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year, about 19 litres a week, pays £34 less in total: £12 in 2026-27 and £22 in 2027-28. -- HM Treasury estimates that the measure reduces receipts by £575 million in 2026-27 and £780 million in 2027-28, with no effect in later years ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). PolicyEngine's estimate for household fuel is £301 million and £521 million. +- PolicyEngine estimates that the measure costs £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28 on fuel that households buy, and nothing in later years. For context, HM Treasury estimates that it reduces receipts by £575 million and £780 million ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). - In 2027-28, household net income rises by £18 a year on average, from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes @@ -104,7 +104,7 @@ The same saving by litres bought a week, with the duty and VAT saved each week i | 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £1.44 | £2.40 | £3.67 | £70 | £25 | £45 | | 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £2.16 | £3.60 | £5.50 | £106 | £38 | £68 | -The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28, the same per litre as the examples above. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. +The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. @@ -344,13 +344,13 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe _Total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. PolicyEngine's estimate is static and covers fuel that households buy. The Treasury's costing covers every litre of taxable fuel and includes a behavioural response, in which consumers change how much fuel they buy as pump prices change (policy costings, page 13); it does not say whether it includes VAT. PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ -PolicyEngine's figures are 52% of the Treasury's in 2026-27 and 67% in 2027-28. Most of the difference is scope. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry about £13 billion of the £24 billion of fuel duty receipts that the OBR expects in 2026-27. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The other differences work the other way: the Treasury's demand response lowers its cost, and PolicyEngine's tax years, which start on 6 April, put 1 to 5 April 2027 into 2026-27. PolicyEngine's figures include the VAT on the lower pump price, about a sixth of the total. +The two estimates differ in method. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The Treasury's costing includes a demand response, and PolicyEngine's is static. PolicyEngine counts tax years from 6 April and the Treasury fiscal years from 1 April. VAT on the pump price is 17% of PolicyEngine's total cost. The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million individual motorists, as well as businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. -In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth, because higher-income households buy more fuel. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. +In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. ```chart { @@ -520,12 +520,12 @@ The poverty rate does not change. Official poverty measures, and PolicyEngine's, - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. - The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. -The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024 against a different baseline, so it does not compare with the figures in this post, which cover only the Budget 2026 measure. +The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024, measured against the previous government's plans. The figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. ## Methodology We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. The rates, dates and VAT treatment match the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres; these agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0.01 at every point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. We use the rates, dates and VAT treatment of the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres, computed from the rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at each point. The population results come from a run of the dashboard's measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. From 879d7f17b140323019d6ed4888ddbf293408e99d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:51:03 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 50/68] Apply the PTA post's standards: rounding notes, poverty measure, labels Whole pounds in the weekly table, 'Figures may not sum because of rounding' under tables whose rows do not add, the absolute poverty rate before housing costs named and defined, and valueLabels off on the multi-series bar charts (merged with the PTA branch for the chart changes from #1462). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 23 +++++++++++-------- 1 file changed, 14 insertions(+), 9 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 67222f8d3..20a7b591d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rur { "type": "bar", "title": "Main fuel duty rate before and after the Budget", + "valueLabels": false, "subtitle": "Pence per litre of petrol or diesel, before VAT", "xKey": "period", "series": [ @@ -93,16 +94,16 @@ The examples are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or di | 1,000 litres | £28 | £6 | £12 | £22 | £34 | | 2,000 litres | £56 | £11 | £24 | £43 | £67 | -Totals may not add because of rounding. +The same saving by litres bought a week: -The same saving by litres bought a week, with the duty and VAT saved each week in each period: +| Litres a week | A year | Saved, January and February 2027 | Saved, March 2027 | Saved, April to June 2027 | Total, 1 January to 30 June 2027 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | +| ------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------- | -------------------------------- | ------- | ------- | +| 10 litres | about 520 litres | £3 | £3 | £12 | £18 | £6 | £11 | +| 20 litres | about 1,040 litres | £6 | £5 | £24 | £35 | £13 | £23 | +| 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £12 | £11 | £48 | £70 | £25 | £45 | +| 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £18 | £16 | £72 | £106 | £38 | £68 | -| Litres a week | A year | Saved a week, January and February 2027 | Saved a week, March 2027 | Saved a week, April to June 2027 | Total, 1 January to 30 June 2027 | 2026-27 | 2027-28 | -| ------------- | ------------------ | --------------------------------------- | ------------------------ | -------------------------------- | -------------------------------- | ------- | ------- | -| 10 litres | about 520 litres | 36p | 60p | 92p | £18 | £6 | £11 | -| 20 litres | about 1,040 litres | 72p | £1.20 | £1.83 | £35 | £13 | £23 | -| 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £1.44 | £2.40 | £3.67 | £70 | £25 | £45 | -| 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £2.16 | £3.60 | £5.50 | £106 | £38 | £68 | +_Figures may not sum because of rounding._ The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. @@ -320,6 +321,8 @@ The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxe | Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £22 | | Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,616, Council Tax Reduction £1,544 | £19,917 | £19,939 | £22 | +_Figures may not sum because of rounding._ + The table shows the fuel duty measure on its own. It leaves out the Budget's other measures: under the Pension Tax Allowance, for example, the pensioner would pay no income tax in 2027-28, instead of £93. In each household, net income rises by the £22 saving on duty and VAT, and no benefit, income tax or National Insurance amount changes. In 2026-27, each household gains £12 in the same way. @@ -356,6 +359,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income { "type": "bar", "title": "Average gain by income decile", + "valueLabels": false, "subtitle": "Change in household net income, £ a year, by tax year", "xKey": "decile", "series": [ @@ -435,6 +439,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income { "type": "bar", "title": "Gain as a share of income by income decile", + "valueLabels": false, "subtitle": "Change in household net income, % of baseline income, by tax year", "xKey": "decile", "series": [ @@ -510,7 +515,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income } ``` -The poverty rate does not change. Official poverty measures, and PolicyEngine's, use household income after direct taxes, which does not deduct taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT. The Gini index of household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) measure: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. The Gini index of household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. ## Assumptions and limitations From 2c0bc9873ff3ce6c1efff9380f54e0e024980d63 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:51:34 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 51/68] Add the dashboard calculator's pensioner and Max's smaller fixes MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Household 9 is the calculator's "pensioner on the full State Pension" (68, full new State Pension and £150, Band D council tax), with a link to the calculator. The methodology says the reform also passes into Universal Credit's tax on earnings, and "to the penny" replaces a rounding slip; the State Pension age limitation fits every example; the Pension Credit note gives the size of the calculator difference. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 31 ++++++++++--------- 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index fd26a59f1..8c29aa489 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,18 +49,19 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows eight households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Each household owes £1,800 a year of council tax, except households 4 and 5, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. - -| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ---------- | -| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | -| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£75** | -| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | −⁠£61 | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£14** | -| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800 | −⁠£46 | −⁠£46 | — | — | — | — | **£0** | -| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860 | −⁠£58 | −⁠£58 | — | — | — | +⁠£180 | **−⁠£180** | -| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0** | -| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | -| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | −⁠£51 | — | **+⁠£42** | +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows nine households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Household 9 is the "pensioner on the full State Pension" example in the [household calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026?tab=household) of PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard: aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. + +| Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | +| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ---------- | +| 1. Owns home, claims no means-tested benefits | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | +| 2. Owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£75** | +| 3. Rents, claims Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | −⁠£61 | −⁠£19 | — | — | **+⁠£14** | +| 4. Claims Pension Credit | £12,800 | −⁠£46 | −⁠£46 | — | — | — | — | **£0** | +| 5. Aged 76, claims Pension Credit | £12,860 | −⁠£58 | −⁠£58 | — | — | — | +⁠£180 | **−⁠£180** | +| 6. Married couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | — | — | — | — | — | — | **£0** | +| 7. Unmarried couple, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | — | — | **+⁠£93** | +| 8. Unmarried couple, older partner works, rents, claims Universal Credit | £13,036 | −⁠£93 | — | — | — | −⁠£51 | — | **+⁠£42** | +| 9. Aged 68, full new State Pension and £150 private pension, owns home, claims Council Tax Reduction | £13,186 | −⁠£44 | — | — | −⁠£9 | — | — | **+⁠£35** | Figures may not sum because of rounding. @@ -962,11 +963,11 @@ The absolute poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points i ## Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples and charts are household calculations for example pensioners. The population results are a static microsimulation; the Treasury's costing and counts come from its own model and data. -- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant can differ from those here. +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ from those here, by up to the full PTA for claimants near the guarantee. - The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. - The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability; the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set the legal order of steps. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. -- PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. The example pensioners are all aged 70, so this does not affect the results. +- PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. Every example pensioner reached State Pension age before the tax year, so this does not affect them. - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. - The population results use PolicyEngine UK's take-up assumptions and its own Pension Credit guarantee (£245 a week in 2027-28), as the dashboard does, not the £247 estimate in the household examples. @@ -978,4 +979,4 @@ The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then ## Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to within £0 at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable and the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to the penny at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. From 4ea5d814de019437defe2fd2032729725c391579 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:53:10 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 52/68] Shorten bar chart labels so every label shows at 375px Decile numbers 1 to 10 (1 = lowest) and month ranges with the years in the subtitle; drop the October-December bar, where both rates are 52.95p and the table above shows it. No text overlaps at 1280px or 375px. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 59 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 27 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 20a7b591d..0fcc2638f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -34,7 +34,7 @@ The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rur "type": "bar", "title": "Main fuel duty rate before and after the Budget", "valueLabels": false, - "subtitle": "Pence per litre of petrol or diesel, before VAT", + "subtitle": "Pence per litre of petrol or diesel, before VAT, January 2027 to March 2028", "xKey": "period", "series": [ { @@ -50,27 +50,22 @@ The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rur ], "data": [ { - "period": "Oct to Dec 2026", - "before": 52.95, - "after": 52.95 - }, - { - "period": "Jan to Feb 2027", + "period": "Jan–Feb", "before": 55.95, "after": 52.95 }, { - "period": "Mar 2027", + "period": "Mar", "before": 57.95, "after": 52.95 }, { - "period": "Apr to Jun 2027", + "period": "Apr–Jun", "before": 60.59, "after": 52.95 }, { - "period": "Jul 2027 to Mar 2028", + "period": "Jul–Mar", "before": 60.59, "after": 60.59 } @@ -360,7 +355,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "type": "bar", "title": "Average gain by income decile", "valueLabels": false, - "subtitle": "Change in household net income, £ a year, by tax year", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income, £ a year, by income decile (1 = lowest) and tax year", "xKey": "decile", "series": [ { @@ -376,52 +371,52 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income ], "data": [ { - "decile": "1st", + "decile": "1", "y2026": 6.93, "y2027": 12.07 }, { - "decile": "2nd", + "decile": "2", "y2026": 7.49, "y2027": 12.77 }, { - "decile": "3rd", + "decile": "3", "y2026": 8.09, "y2027": 13.91 }, { - "decile": "4th", + "decile": "4", "y2026": 9.08, "y2027": 15.43 }, { - "decile": "5th", + "decile": "5", "y2026": 9.56, "y2027": 16.76 }, { - "decile": "6th", + "decile": "6", "y2026": 11.12, "y2027": 18.89 }, { - "decile": "7th", + "decile": "7", "y2026": 11.3, "y2027": 19.55 }, { - "decile": "8th", + "decile": "8", "y2026": 12.9, "y2027": 22.3 }, { - "decile": "9th", + "decile": "9", "y2026": 13.86, "y2027": 23.9 }, { - "decile": "10th", + "decile": "10", "y2026": 13.35, "y2027": 22.95 } @@ -440,7 +435,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "type": "bar", "title": "Gain as a share of income by income decile", "valueLabels": false, - "subtitle": "Change in household net income, % of baseline income, by tax year", + "subtitle": "Change in household net income, % of baseline income, by income decile (1 = lowest) and tax year", "xKey": "decile", "series": [ { @@ -456,52 +451,52 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income ], "data": [ { - "decile": "1st", + "decile": "1", "y2026": 0.0271, "y2027": 0.0466 }, { - "decile": "2nd", + "decile": "2", "y2026": 0.0189, "y2027": 0.032 }, { - "decile": "3rd", + "decile": "3", "y2026": 0.0184, "y2027": 0.0312 }, { - "decile": "4th", + "decile": "4", "y2026": 0.0192, "y2027": 0.0319 }, { - "decile": "5th", + "decile": "5", "y2026": 0.018, "y2027": 0.0309 }, { - "decile": "6th", + "decile": "6", "y2026": 0.0192, "y2027": 0.032 }, { - "decile": "7th", + "decile": "7", "y2026": 0.0178, "y2027": 0.03 }, { - "decile": "8th", + "decile": "8", "y2026": 0.0178, "y2027": 0.0303 }, { - "decile": "9th", + "decile": "9", "y2026": 0.0162, "y2027": 0.0274 }, { - "decile": "10th", + "decile": "10", "y2026": 0.0086, "y2027": 0.0145 } From 31816f6f2ba6fde4c3ce2d135483085705bde0b0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:54:00 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 53/68] Population results: people counts, benefit split and the OBR figures MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Max's review: compare people with the explainer's pensioner count (668,000 in 2027-28, 1.36 million by 2029-30); split the £12 million that comes back in 2027-28 (Pension Credit £8m, Housing Benefit £4m, Council Tax Reduction under £1m; no lost licences until 2028-29); say each household that loses (2,700 and 2,800) loses a free TV licence, and that the 2027-28 loss band is empty in the sample; describe the Treasury's later years in its own terms (National Accounts basis, unexplained); add the OBR's policy table figures, which also count income tax only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 10 ++++++---- 1 file changed, 6 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 8c29aa489..e91e9eee7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -752,15 +752,17 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, | 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | | 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | -_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. The Treasury's figure covers income tax only; its costing does not show effects on benefit spending. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ +_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. The Treasury's figure covers income tax only; its costing does not show effects on benefit spending. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis, in fiscal years from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026._ -The two estimates differ in method: the Treasury counts receipts in fiscal years, and its +£50 million and −£15 million fall after the PTA ends on 5 April 2030, while PolicyEngine counts tax liabilities in each tax year, so it shows nothing after 2029-30. They also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. +The Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. For context, the OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). -In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and of TV licence fees paid by claimants who lose a free licence. +In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit (£8 million), Housing Benefit (£4 million) and Council Tax Reduction (under £1 million). From 2028-29, lost free TV licences also reduce the total cost, by under £1 million a year. ### Who gains -About 528,000 households, with 1.0 million people, gain in 2027-28, an average of £56 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA. The number rises to 860,000 households in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average gains of £96 and £134. In 2027-28, no household loses. In 2028-29 and 2029-30, about 3,000 households lose. Household 5 above shows one way this can happen: a claimant aged 75 or over who leaves Pension Credit and loses the free TV licence. +In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average household gains of £96 and £134. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. + +No household loses in 2027-28. About 2,700 households lose in 2028-29 and 2,800 in 2029-30; each of them loses a free TV licence, as household 5 does. On PolicyEngine UK's own Pension Credit guarantee, a claimant aged 75 or over can lose only with total income from £12,760 to £12,807 in 2027-28, and the sample has no household in that band. ### Distributional impact From 262549a5a1f130156809bd15e47c6d53e355eb73 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:54:38 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 54/68] State that the Treasury figure covers fuel duty receipts only The OBR's policy table (EFO October 2026, detailed forecast tables, Table 1.1) scores row 3 as 'Receipts | Fuel Duty', -573.8 and -781.8, with no VAT line, so the footnote and key figure say so. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 0fcc2638f..2f5bf9039 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ Key figures: - On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year, about 19 litres a week, pays £34 less in total: £12 in 2026-27 and £22 in 2027-28. -- PolicyEngine estimates that the measure costs £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28 on fuel that households buy, and nothing in later years. For context, HM Treasury estimates that it reduces receipts by £575 million and £780 million ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). +- PolicyEngine estimates that the measure costs £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28 on fuel that households buy, and nothing in later years. For context, HM Treasury estimates that it reduces fuel duty receipts by £575 million and £780 million ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). - In 2027-28, household net income rises by £18 a year on average, from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes @@ -340,7 +340,7 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe | 2027-28 | −⁠£434 million | −⁠£87 million | −⁠£521 million | −⁠£780 million | | 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | -_Total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. PolicyEngine's estimate is static and covers fuel that households buy. The Treasury's costing covers every litre of taxable fuel and includes a behavioural response, in which consumers change how much fuel they buy as pump prices change (policy costings, page 13); it does not say whether it includes VAT. PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings._ +_Total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. PolicyEngine's estimate is static and covers fuel that households buy. The Treasury's costing covers every litre of taxable fuel and includes a behavioural response, in which consumers change how much fuel they buy as pump prices change (policy costings, page 13). It covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty receipts, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026._ The two estimates differ in method. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The Treasury's costing includes a demand response, and PolicyEngine's is static. PolicyEngine counts tax years from 6 April and the Treasury fiscal years from 1 April. VAT on the pump price is 17% of PolicyEngine's total cost. From 83ed37b75f6d076b66d89aaba040a66e7dc4164b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:54:49 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 55/68] Note the calculator's unrounded State Pension for household 9 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index e91e9eee7..5ba81fc89 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows nine households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Household 9 is the "pensioner on the full State Pension" example in the [household calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026?tab=household) of PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard: aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows nine households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Household 9 is the "pensioner on the full State Pension" example in the [household calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026?tab=household) of PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard: aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. The calculator takes the full new State Pension as £13,036.97, the model's weekly rate without rounding, so it shows total income of £13,187; its other figures for this household round to the same pounds. Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. | Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ---------- | From dbf7471afb0ca7660e0138b7ae21dcfcff07fc26 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:56:05 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 56/68] Shorten the budgetary table footnote to the static point Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 5ba81fc89..bead38105 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -752,7 +752,7 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, | 2030-31 | £0 | +⁠£50 million | £0 | | 2031-32 | £0 | −⁠£15 million | £0 | -_Total cost is the income tax cut less what comes back through lower Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction and through lost free TV licences; it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. The Treasury's figure covers income tax only; its costing does not show effects on benefit spending. Both estimates are static. PolicyEngine includes no behavioural response, and the Treasury's costing assumes none, because people have little scope to manage their income to keep the allowance. PolicyEngine gives the change in income tax liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis, in fiscal years from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026._ +_Both estimates are static: neither includes a behavioural response._ The Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. For context, the OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). From 6f402b946822872c72963347208ba553d8fe2e3c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:56:30 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 57/68] Shorten the cost table footnote to the static-dynamic line Move the total cost definition, the fuel-duty-only coverage, the base and the timing basis into the paragraph after the table. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 2f5bf9039..b6f86895e 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -340,9 +340,9 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe | 2027-28 | −⁠£434 million | −⁠£87 million | −⁠£521 million | −⁠£780 million | | 2028-29 onwards | £0 | £0 | £0 | £0 | -_Total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income. Negative figures are costs. PolicyEngine's estimate is static and covers fuel that households buy. The Treasury's costing covers every litre of taxable fuel and includes a behavioural response, in which consumers change how much fuel they buy as pump prices change (policy costings, page 13). It covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty receipts, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. Sources: PolicyEngine UK microsimulation; HM Treasury, Budget 2026, Table 6.1 and policy costings; OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026._ +_PolicyEngine's estimate is static; the Treasury's includes a demand response._ -The two estimates differ in method. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars. The Treasury's costing includes a demand response, and PolicyEngine's is static. PolicyEngine counts tax years from 6 April and the Treasury fiscal years from 1 April. VAT on the pump price is 17% of PolicyEngine's total cost. +PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The Treasury's figure covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million individual motorists, as well as businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. From 75678f1bded0b4015d0318bcaf4f7fb501fe42b2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:58:18 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 58/68] Say that the OBR's income tax figures and PolicyEngine's total cost match by coincidence Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index bead38105..7c6564861 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -754,7 +754,7 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, _Both estimates are static: neither includes a behavioural response._ -The Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. For context, the OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). +The Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. For context, the OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). The OBR's figures cover income tax only; their equality with PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit (£8 million), Housing Benefit (£4 million) and Council Tax Reduction (under £1 million). From 2028-29, lost free TV licences also reduce the total cost, by under £1 million a year. From d0e5d3003a8df18df1aa71fb4eab38c13ae0d2fc Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 11:58:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 59/68] =?UTF-8?q?Show=20the=20rounding=20up=20in=20the=20P?= =?UTF-8?q?TA=20value=20step:=20=C2=A393.28=20to=20=C2=A394?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 7c6564861..b5d479957 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ Key figures for 2027-28: The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) lists the PTA among its tax measures, and HM Treasury's [Pension Tax Allowance explainer](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pension-tax-allowance-explainer/pension-tax-allowance-explainer) sets out the rules. The PTA has five parts: 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. -2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up: £94 in 2027-28. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". +2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. In 2027-28, 20% of £466.40 (£13,036.40 − £12,570) is £93.28, rounded up to £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". 3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. From d282ef870176c81feb87175d02584121bdc50197 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:02:29 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 60/68] Say which households the average gains in 2028-29 and 2029-30 cover Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index b5d479957..5b402f8b4 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -760,7 +760,7 @@ In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less ### Who gains -In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension, with average household gains of £96 and £134. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. +In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 860,000 in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £96 and £134 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. No household loses in 2027-28. About 2,700 households lose in 2028-29 and 2,800 in 2029-30; each of them loses a free TV licence, as household 5 does. On PolicyEngine UK's own Pension Credit guarantee, a claimant aged 75 or over can lose only with total income from £12,760 to £12,807 in 2027-28, and the sample has no household in that band. From 17edfd546b17b96d7c8eb8af548a61e1027ea691 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:10:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 61/68] =?UTF-8?q?Audit=20fixes:=20Gini=20basis,=20=C2=A323?= =?UTF-8?q?0=20note,=20assumptions=20wording,=20OBR=20link?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 8 ++++---- 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index b6f86895e..724ed5d1f 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ Key figures: Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March 2022. Before the Budget, the cut was due to end in two steps: the rate was to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)), and to return to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, the rate in [section 6 of the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6). Government policy since Budget 2025 was to uprate the rate by RPI from April 2027. -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19 instead of £22. @@ -510,17 +510,17 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income } ``` -The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) measure: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. The Gini index of household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) measure: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. ## Assumptions and limitations -- The household examples are household calculations. The population results come from a microsimulation of the dashboard's measure, which is static and covers household fuel only. +- The worked examples and the net income table come from household calculations for hypothetical households. The population results come from a microsimulation of the dashboard's measure, which is static and covers household fuel only. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. - The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. -The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024, measured against the previous government's plans. The figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. +The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024; the figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. ## Methodology From 8a9628ed15f1438e05a64da8e3ef5522cbd2a364 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:11:50 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 62/68] Move explainers and technical detail into an appendix The main text keeps the rules, the household results, the charts and the population results, with one-line pointers. The appendix holds the household and tax-year definitions, projections and coverage, the effective marginal rate, poverty and deciles, the population run, the comparison with the Treasury and the OBR, assumptions and methodology. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 61 +++++++++++++------ 1 file changed, 43 insertions(+), 18 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 724ed5d1f..0aefdc0b1 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -13,9 +13,7 @@ Key figures: Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March 2022. Before the Budget, the cut was due to end in two steps: the rate was to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)), and to return to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, the rate in [section 6 of the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6). Government policy since Budget 2025 was to uprate the rate by RPI from April 2027. -The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). - -No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19 instead of £22. +The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). The rate before the Budget from 1 April 2027 is our assumption; the appendix sets it out. | Period | Days | Rate before the Budget | Rate after the Budget | Duty saved a litre | Duty and VAT saved a litre | | ----------------------------- | ---- | ---------------------- | --------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------- | @@ -27,8 +25,6 @@ No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government ha VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty. If retailers pass the change on in full, a 50-litre tank costs about £2 less in January or February 2027, £3 less in March 2027 and £5 less from April to June 2027. -The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels; this post covers petrol and diesel only. - ```chart { "type": "bar", @@ -81,7 +77,7 @@ The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rur ## Worked examples -The examples are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or diesel a year, spread evenly over each tax year. 1,000 litres is about 19 litres a week. PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. HM Treasury's figures use fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. +The examples are households that use 500, 1,000 and 2,000 litres of petrol or diesel a year, spread evenly over each tax year. 1,000 litres is about 19 litres a week. See the appendix for the household definitions and tax years. | Fuel use a year | Fuel duty saved | VAT saved | Total saved, 2026-27 | Total saved, 2027-28 | Total saved | | --------------- | --------------- | --------- | -------------------- | -------------------- | ----------- | @@ -100,7 +96,7 @@ The same saving by litres bought a week: _Figures may not sum because of rounding._ -The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. +The household calculator on PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026) includes a driver with a long commute, who spends £2,600 a year on petrol and diesel. At PolicyEngine UK's pump prices, 150.8p a litre for petrol and 170.6p for diesel, that buys about 1,620 litres a year. The measure saves this driver £20 in 2026-27 and £35 in 2027-28. The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household with no car, or with an electric car only, pays no fuel duty and sees no change. @@ -308,7 +304,7 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi ## Net income and other benefits -The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. +The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. The appendix gives each household's rent, council tax and State Pension. | Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income without the measure | Net income with the measure | Change | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | --------------------------- | ------ | @@ -326,13 +322,11 @@ The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for thre - **Means tests use income, not spending.** Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income and capital. Fuel duty enters only the household's taxes, so the lower pump price does not reduce any award. - **Benefit uprating does not change.** April 2027 uprating uses September 2026 inflation, before the measure applies. April 2028 uprating uses September 2027 inflation. The duty rate is the same with and without the Budget in both September 2026 (52.95p) and September 2027 (60.59p), so the measure does not change the September 2027 annual inflation rate through pump prices. -- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** PolicyEngine UK gives each household the same effective marginal rate with and without the measure: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. - -Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. +- **Marginal tax rates do not change.** Each household's effective marginal tax rate is the same with and without the measure: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. ## Population results -PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results below come from a run of the dashboard's measure on 28 October 2026. +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households. The appendix describes the run and compares it with the Treasury's costing. | Tax year | Fuel duty: PolicyEngine | VAT: PolicyEngine | Total cost: PolicyEngine | HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | | --------------- | ----------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------- | @@ -342,13 +336,11 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe _PolicyEngine's estimate is static; the Treasury's includes a demand response._ -PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The Treasury's figure covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. - The Budget states that the measure supports 35 million individual motorists, as well as businesses across the UK. In PolicyEngine's data, 21.7 million of the 29.2 million households in 2026-27, or 74%, buy petrol or diesel and gain from the measure. The other 26% buy none and see no change. Household net income rises by an average of £10 in 2026-27 and £18 in 2027-28, across all households. -In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. +In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. As a share of income, it falls from 0.047% in the lowest decile to 0.014% in the highest. ```chart { @@ -510,19 +502,52 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income } ``` -The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. This is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) measure: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. + +## Appendix + +### Households and tax years + +PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. HM Treasury's figures use fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. + +Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. + +The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. + +### Projections, prices and coverage + +No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19 instead of £22. + +The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels; this post covers petrol and diesel only. + +### Effective marginal tax rate + +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of earnings that a household loses through taxes and lower benefits: 1 minus the change in household net income, as PolicyEngine UK's `marginal_tax_rate` defines it. + +### Poverty and deciles + +The poverty measure is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) absolute measure before housing costs: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. + +### Population run + +PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its representative sample of UK households, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 on the OBR October 2026 forecast. The results in the main text come from a run of the dashboard's measure on 28 October 2026. + +### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR + +PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The Treasury's figure covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. -## Assumptions and limitations +### Assumptions and limitations - The worked examples and the net income table come from household calculations for hypothetical households. The population results come from a microsimulation of the dashboard's measure, which is static and covers household fuel only. - The examples hold the litres that each household buys fixed. HM Treasury's costing includes a response in which people buy more fuel when prices are lower; we do not model it. - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. - The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. +- Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024; the figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. -## Methodology +### Methodology We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. From 6a148a94e9f3e1e0c8c5e64b95c9f50e90f24c6e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:12:08 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 63/68] Move the PTA post's technical detail into an appendix The main text keeps the rules, the household results and the population results, with short introductions. The appendix holds the projections and uprating reading, household definitions, income taxed above 20%, chart definitions, the population run setup, the comparison with the Treasury and the OBR, assumptions and methodology. No figure changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md | 86 ++++++++++++------- 1 file changed, 54 insertions(+), 32 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md index 5b402f8b4..cc5d64d06 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/pension-tax-allowance.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and £13,319 in 2027-28. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations. +In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor announced a Pension Tax Allowance (PTA): an income tax reduction for people over State Pension age whose total income is between the £12,570 Personal Allowance and £13,319 in 2027-28. The PTA applies for three tax years, from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030. This post explains how the PTA works and shows its effect on example pensioners and on the population, using PolicyEngine UK. Key figures for 2027-28: @@ -15,11 +15,11 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 1. **Eligibility.** People over State Pension age, or who reach it during the tax year, qualify. A person does not need to receive the State Pension. The PTA belongs to each person and cannot be transferred to a partner. 2. **Value.** The full PTA is 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. In 2027-28, 20% of £466.40 (£13,036.40 − £12,570) is £93.28, rounded up to £94. Scottish taxpayers receive the same PTA, which the explainer says is "calculated using the 20% basic rate rather than the Scottish starter rate". -3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay: property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. +3. **Tax reduction.** The PTA reduces the income tax bill after all allowances and reliefs. It does not change the Personal Allowance, and it cannot produce a refund. It works as a non-refundable tax credit, like the Married Couple's Allowance. 4. **Income test.** The test uses total income from all sources: pensions, earnings, self-employment, property, savings and dividends. ISA income does not count. A person with total income at or below the full new State Pension gets the full PTA. 5. **Taper.** Above the full new State Pension, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra total income. In 2027-28 it reaches zero £282 above the full new State Pension. -The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC applies it automatically, with no claim. +The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30, and HMRC applies it automatically, with no claim. The values for those years are projections (see the appendix). | Tax year | Full new State Pension | Full PTA | PTA reaches zero at | | -------- | ---------------------- | -------- | ------------------- | @@ -27,11 +27,9 @@ The PTA rises with the full new State Pension in 2028-29 and 2029-30. HMRC appli | 2028-29 | £13,478 | £182 | £14,025 | | 2029-30 | £13,816 | £250 | £14,567 | -The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. Under this reading, a pensioner on the full new State Pension pays no income tax in each year, in line with the Budget's statement that such pensioners "will not be brought into paying tax because of State Pension uprating in this Parliament". - ## Household impacts -This section shows the PTA's effect on example pensioners, using PolicyEngine UK household calculations for 2027-28 unless stated. +This section shows the PTA's effect on example pensioners in 2027-28, unless stated. The appendix defines each household. ### Worked examples @@ -49,7 +47,7 @@ A pensioner whose only income is the full new State Pension owes £93 of income ### Net income and other benefits -Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows nine households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 and the older partner in households 6 and 7 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. In household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. The couples are aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. Household 9 is the "pensioner on the full State Pension" example in the [household calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026?tab=household) of PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard: aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. The calculator takes the full new State Pension as £13,036.97, the model's weekly rate without rounding, so it shows total income of £13,187; its other figures for this household round to the same pounds. Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes, and a dash means no change; for the TV licence fee, a positive change is a new cost. +Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction all assess income after income tax. When the PTA lowers income tax, these benefits fall, so household net income rises by less than the PTA. The table shows nine households in the North West of England in 2027-28. Each column shows the change that the PTA makes; a dash means no change, and for the TV licence fee a positive change is a new cost. Household 9 is an example in the [household calculator](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026?tab=household) of PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard. | Household | Total income | Income tax | Pension Credit | Housing Benefit | Council Tax Reduction | Universal Credit | TV licence fee | Net income | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | -------------- | --------------- | --------------------- | ---------------- | -------------- | ---------- | @@ -67,13 +65,13 @@ Figures may not sum because of rounding. Housing Benefit falls by 65p and Council Tax Reduction by 20p for each £1 of extra income after tax, so household 3 keeps 15p of each £1 of PTA. Pension Credit tops income after tax up to a minimum guarantee, so a claimant whose income stays below the guarantee, such as household 4, loses Pension Credit equal to the full PTA. -A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so household 5 is £180 worse off. This happens from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. It assumes that the household needs a TV licence. Leaving Pension Credit can also end other help that the model does not include, such as the £150 Warm Home Discount in England and Wales, so the loss can be larger. +A Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over also gets a free TV licence. If the PTA lifts income after tax above the guarantee, Pension Credit ends and the £180 licence fee returns, so household 5 is £180 worse off. This happens from £12,860 to £12,932 of total income in 2027-28, the range where Pension Credit would continue without the PTA. -A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66), so the PTA does not change it. It counts earnings after income tax, so when the PTA cuts the tax on earnings, Universal Credit falls by 55p for each £1. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer also notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. +A couple in which one partner is under State Pension age claims Universal Credit, not Pension Credit or Housing Benefit. Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax, so the PTA does not change it, but it counts earnings after income tax, so it falls by 55p for each £1 of PTA on earnings. In the married couple, the younger partner transfers the Marriage Allowance, which already removes the older partner's income tax, so the PTA gives nothing. An unmarried couple cannot use the Marriage Allowance. ### The PTA in each tax year -The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is all pension income, such as the State Pension and a private pension. The results depend only on total income, not on its source. +The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is all pension income. The results depend only on total income, not on its source. ```chart { @@ -320,7 +318,7 @@ The charts below follow a single pensioner aged 70 in England whose income is al } ``` -The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Up to the full new State Pension, the PTA used equals the tax due. Above it, the PTA falls by £1 for each £3 of extra income. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £250 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £750. +The chart shows the PTA used, which is the PTA capped at the tax due. Because the full new State Pension rises each year while the Personal Allowance stays at £12,570, the maximum PTA rises from £94 in 2027-28 to £250 in 2029-30, and the withdrawal range widens from £282 to £750. ### Income tax by total income @@ -458,7 +456,7 @@ Without the PTA, income tax starts at the £12,570 Personal Allowance. With the ### Net income -This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income counts pension income and every tax and benefit that applies: here, Pension Credit, income tax, the £200 Winter Fuel Payment and the £180 TV licence fee. A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The pensioner has no housing costs, so Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction do not apply. +This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit when eligible, with no housing costs. ```chart { @@ -596,11 +594,11 @@ This chart shows household net income for a pensioner who claims Pension Credit } ``` -We estimate the 2027-28 Pension Credit minimum guarantee at £247 a week, or £12,860 a year (see the assumptions below). Up to that income, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,880 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £94, at £13,038, and the gain falls to zero at £13,319. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,860 to £12,932. +Up to the estimated Pension Credit minimum guarantee of £12,860 a year, Pension Credit holds net income at £12,880 with or without the PTA. Above it, the PTA raises net income by up to £94, at £13,038, and the gain falls to zero at £13,319. For a claimant aged 75 or over, the loss of the free TV licence makes the change negative from £12,860 to £12,932. ### Marginal tax rates -The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the pensioner does not keep, after income tax and any loss of benefits. It is 1 minus the change in household net income, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, here for a £1 rise in private pension. +The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the pensioner does not keep, after income tax and any loss of benefits. ```chart { @@ -733,16 +731,14 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of income that the } ``` -Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,860, 0% from there to £13,038, 53.3% from £13,038 to £13,319, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on this income, so the rate in the withdrawal range is 52.3%. +Without the PTA, the rate is 100% up to £12,932, because Pension Credit falls by £1 for each £1 of income, and 20% above that. With the PTA, the rate is 100% up to the minimum guarantee of £12,860, 0% from there to £13,038, 53.3% from £13,038 to £13,319, and 20% above that. The 53.3% is the 20% basic rate plus 33.3% from the taper: a pensioner in that range keeps 47p of each extra £1 of total income, against 80p without the PTA. ## Population impacts -We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0, and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The results are static, with no behavioural response. +We ran the PTA on PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, set up as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard sets up its runs (see the appendix). ### Budgetary impact -The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, £90 million in 2028-29 and £150 million in 2029-30. The same costing shows a gain of £50 million in 2030-31 and a cost of £15 million in 2031-32, after the PTA ends (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52). The explainer states that about 500,000 pensioners will pay less income tax in 2027-28 because of the PTA, and that about 290,000 of them will pay none. By the end of this Parliament, about 1 million pensioners will receive the PTA. - | Tax year | Income tax: PolicyEngine | Income tax: HM Treasury (Table 6.1) | Total cost: PolicyEngine | | -------- | ------------------------ | ----------------------------------- | ------------------------ | | 2026-27 | £0 | £0 | £0 | @@ -754,15 +750,13 @@ The Treasury estimates that the PTA reduces receipts by £45 million in 2027-28, _Both estimates are static: neither includes a behavioural response._ -The Treasury's costing is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. For context, the OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). The OBR's figures cover income tax only; their equality with PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. - -In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit (£8 million), Housing Benefit (£4 million) and Council Tax Reduction (under £1 million). From 2028-29, lost free TV licences also reduce the total cost, by under £1 million a year. +In 2027-28, the total cost is £30 million: the £42 million income tax cut less £12 million (29%) of lower spending on Pension Credit (£8 million), Housing Benefit (£4 million) and Council Tax Reduction (under £1 million). From 2028-29, lost free TV licences also reduce the total cost, by under £1 million a year. The Treasury's and the OBR's figures cover income tax only; the appendix compares them with PolicyEngine's. ### Who gains In 2027-28, 668,000 people pay less income tax, in 528,000 households; the households gain an average of £56 a year each. The number of people rises to 1.06 million in 2028-29 and 1.36 million in 2029-30, as the PTA grows with the State Pension. The households that gain number 860,000 in 2028-29 and 1.07 million in 2029-30, and gain an average of £96 and £134 a year each. For context, HM Treasury's explainer estimates that about 500,000 pensioners pay less income tax in 2027-28, and about 1 million by the end of this Parliament. -No household loses in 2027-28. About 2,700 households lose in 2028-29 and 2,800 in 2029-30; each of them loses a free TV licence, as household 5 does. On PolicyEngine UK's own Pension Credit guarantee, a claimant aged 75 or over can lose only with total income from £12,760 to £12,807 in 2027-28, and the sample has no household in that band. +No household loses in 2027-28. About 2,700 households lose in 2028-29 and 2,800 in 2029-30; each of them loses a free TV licence, as household 5 does. ### Distributional impact @@ -960,25 +954,53 @@ In 2027-28, the average gain is about £1 to £2 a year in each of the bottom se ### Poverty and inequality -The absolute poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. Absolute poverty uses the official HBAI measure: household income below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs falls by 0.01 percentage points in 2027-28 and by 0.02 percentage points in 2029-30. The Gini index of household net income falls by less than 0.0001. + +The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. + +## Appendix + +### Projections for 2028-29 and 2029-30 + +The 2027-28 values come from the explainer. The government has not yet set the State Pension for 2028-29 and 2029-30, so those rows apply the triple lock on the OBR's October 2026 forecast (3.4% in April 2028 and 2.5% in April 2029), round the weekly rate down to 5p and take 52 weeks. The explainer says the PTA is "uprated in line with" the full new State Pension. We read this as the same formula each year, 20% of the full new State Pension above the Personal Allowance, rounded up to the pound. Under this reading, a pensioner on the full new State Pension pays no income tax in each year, in line with the Budget's statement that such pensioners "will not be brought into paying tax because of State Pension uprating in this Parliament". + +### Household definitions -## Assumptions and limitations +- Households 1 to 5 are single pensioners aged 70, except household 5, aged 76. Households 1 to 3 have the full new State Pension and no other income. Households 4 and 5 have £11,000 of State Pension and a private pension of £1,800 and £1,860, and no housing costs. +- Households 6 to 8 are couples aged 70 and 60, and the younger partner has no income. In households 6 and 7, the older partner has the full new State Pension; in household 8, the older partner earns £13,036 and has deferred the State Pension. +- Household 9 is the calculator's "pensioner on the full State Pension": aged 68, with the full new State Pension and £150 of private pension, and the calculator's £2,629 Band D council tax. The calculator takes the full new State Pension as £13,036.97, the model's weekly rate without rounding, so it shows total income of £13,187; its other figures for this household round to the same pounds. +- Households 1 to 3 and 6 to 8 owe £1,800 a year of council tax, and the renters pay £7,800 a year in rent. All households are in the North West of England. +- For household 5, the loss assumes that the household needs a TV licence. Leaving Pension Credit can also end other help that the model does not include, such as the £150 Warm Home Discount in England and Wales, so the loss can be larger. +- Universal Credit counts pension income before income tax (Universal Credit Regulations 2013, regulation 66). A single person over State Pension age cannot claim Universal Credit. The explainer notes that "receipt of the Pension Tax Allowance may affect your entitlement" to means-tested benefits. -- The worked examples and charts are household calculations for example pensioners. The population results are a static microsimulation; the Treasury's costing and counts come from its own model and data. -- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. We apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ from those here, by up to the full PTA for claimants near the guarantee. -- The 2028-29 and 2029-30 State Pension values follow the OBR's October 2026 forecast. The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. -- The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years. We round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. +### Income taxed above 20% + +Because the full PTA is worth 20% of the gap between the full new State Pension and the Personal Allowance, income taxed above 20% can still leave tax to pay. Property income is taxed at 22% in 2027-28, so a pensioner with £11,000 of State Pension and £2,036 of property income pays £9 with the PTA, down from £103. A Scottish taxpayer pays the 19% starter rate on income in the withdrawal range, so the effective marginal tax rate there is 52.3%. + +### Charts + +The net income and marginal rate charts follow a pensioner with no housing costs who claims Pension Credit when eligible. Household net income counts pension income, Pension Credit, income tax, the £200 Winter Fuel Payment and the £180 TV licence fee. The effective marginal tax rate is 1 minus the change in household net income, as in PolicyEngine's `marginal_tax_rate`, here for a £1 rise in private pension. + +### Population run + +The population results use PolicyEngine UK's representative sample of UK households, Microcosm UK: the certified dataset that `policyengine` 6.11.1 pins, with PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 and the OBR's October 2026 forecast. They are static, with no behavioural response, and use PolicyEngine UK's take-up assumptions and its own Pension Credit guarantee (£245 a week in 2027-28), as the dashboard does. On that guarantee, a Pension Credit claimant aged 75 or over can lose only with total income from £12,760 to £12,807 in 2027-28, and the sample has no household in that band. Absolute poverty uses the official HBAI measure: household income below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. + +### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR + +The Treasury's costing (Budget 2026, Table 6.1, row 52) is on a National Accounts basis and does not explain its figures for 2030-31 and 2031-32, after the PTA ends. PolicyEngine counts each tax year's liabilities, so it shows nothing then. The two also use different data: the Treasury uses HMRC's Personal Tax Model, and PolicyEngine uses Microcosm UK. The OBR's detailed policy table also records the PTA as income tax receipts only, at −£44 million, −£83 million and −£144 million in 2027-28 to 2029-30, then +£49 million and −£15 million (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast table 1.1). Their equality with PolicyEngine's total cost in 2028-29 and 2029-30, which includes benefit effects, is a coincidence of rounding to the million. The explainer states that about 290,000 of the 500,000 pensioners who pay less income tax in 2027-28 will pay none. + +### Assumptions and limitations + +- DWP has not yet published the 2027-28 Pension Credit rates. The minimum guarantee rises with earnings, and the April 2027 State Pension rise of 3.9% is above September 2026 CPI inflation (3.5%), so it reflects earnings growth. For the household examples, we apply 3.9% to the 2026-27 rate of £238 a week, which gives £247. PolicyEngine UK's own projection on the October 2026 forecast is £245, uprated by lagged CPI; the household calculator in PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget dashboard uses that guarantee, so its figures for a Pension Credit claimant differ from those here, by up to the full PTA for claimants near the guarantee. +- The explainer bases the threshold on the State Pension received in the tax year; we use 52 weeks. The published rates, and the number of payments in a tax year, may differ. The explainer does not state how HMRC rounds the PTA in later years; we round up to the pound, as for 2027-28. - We apply the PTA to the final income tax liability; the Finance Bill 2026-27 will set the legal order of steps. People who transfer part of their Personal Allowance through the Marriage Allowance can still owe tax with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK treats a person as over State Pension age if they reach it by 6 October. The PTA also covers people who reach State Pension age later in the tax year. Every example pensioner reached State Pension age before the tax year, so this does not affect them. - We measure total income as the sum of income from each source. HMRC's total income may deduct some reliefs first. - In the worked examples, the explainer's part-time worker also has property income; we model the full amount as salary. For the pensioner with £13,400 of income, the explainer's £166 treats all of it as taxable at 20%; we model it as a private pension. If part of it were savings interest, the starting rate for savings would reduce the tax. -- The population results use PolicyEngine UK's take-up assumptions and its own Pension Credit guarantee (£245 a week in 2027-28), as the dashboard does, not the £247 estimate in the household examples. - The benefit results assume that each pensioner claims the benefits they are entitled to, and they use PolicyEngine UK's council tax, rent and TV licence values for 2027-28. - The calculations include no other Budget 2026 measure. The Budget raises the tax rates on property and savings income from April 2027, which would leave more tax to pay on such income with the PTA. - PolicyEngine UK takes a person's earnings as the lowest slice of their income when it works out the income tax that Universal Credit deducts, and it takes tax reductions off that tax first. We apply the PTA in the same way. The couples' examples do not include local Council Tax Reduction schemes for working-age households. -The Budget also adjusts the triple lock from April 2030: the State Pension then rises by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or the increase that keeps its value relative to earnings at the April 2029 level. This post does not cover that change. - -## Methodology +### Methodology We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). Every calculation, with and without the PTA, uses the OBR's October 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast, as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does; PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0 ships the March 2026 forecast. PolicyEngine UK does not yet include the PTA, so we added it as a structural reform that reduces the `income_tax` variable and the income tax that Universal Credit deducts from earnings. The rules and values match the PTA modifier in the draft update to PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard. Income tax, the PTA and net income are piecewise linear in total income, so the charts plot their breakpoints and a point every £100. These values agree with PolicyEngine UK to the penny at every £2 of total income, and the effective marginal tax rates agree to within 0.04 percentage points. From 544f8f105d46f6d3b59a895fd683622ec3719bdb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:13:07 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 64/68] Retitle the PTA post: The Pension Tax Allowance in the Autumn Budget 2026 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 8973f3a7a..f4b3e9b94 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ [ { - "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance, step by step", + "title": "The Pension Tax Allowance in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "From April 2027, the Pension Tax Allowance removes income tax for most pensioners with total income up to the full new State Pension. We show how the \u00a394 allowance and its \u00a31-in-\u00a33 taper work, and how they pass through to Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction.", "date": "2026-10-28 18:00:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], From ecb7b9afb78e6e238f468efbbfe2c25f3e8bdf29 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:18:43 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 65/68] Final audit fixes: October net income, Gini, uprating, sources MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit - Net income table on the October scenario (the March path kept the Pension Credit guarantee at £243.47): pensioner HB £7,682, CTR £1,564, net income £20,002 -> £20,024; region, ages, Winter Fuel Payment stated - Gini change given as a relative change (0.01%, 0.02%) - Uprating reason simplified; decile basis is HBAI income - Rate table ends the 60.59p row on 31 March 2028; RPI from April 2028 - Table 6.1 links to the Budget document; HMRC May 2026 note cited - £230 baseline from footnote 98; OBR VAT wording; other fuels 'where practical'; VAT-registered businesses save the duty only - Key figure notes the April 2027 assumption Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 45 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 23 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 0aefdc0b1..749123e2b 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -3,15 +3,15 @@ In the Autumn Budget on 28 October 2026, the Chancellor extended the temporary 5 Key figures: - The main rate of fuel duty stays at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. Before the Budget, the rate was due to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 and 57.95p on 1 March 2027, with an RPI increase planned for April 2027. -- On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, it follows the same path as before the Budget. +- On 1 July 2027, the rate rises to 60.59p. From that date, on our assumption for April 2027, it follows the same path as before the Budget. - With the VAT on the duty, a litre costs 3.6p less in January and February 2027, 6.0p less in March 2027 and 9.2p less from April to June 2027. - A household that uses 1,000 litres of fuel a year, about 19 litres a week, pays £34 less in total: £12 in 2026-27 and £22 in 2027-28. -- PolicyEngine estimates that the measure costs £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28 on fuel that households buy, and nothing in later years. For context, HM Treasury estimates that it reduces fuel duty receipts by £575 million and £780 million ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026), row 3). +- PolicyEngine estimates that the measure costs £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28 on fuel that households buy, and nothing in later years. For context, HM Treasury estimates that it reduces fuel duty receipts by £575 million and £780 million ([Budget 2026, Table 6.1](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html), row 3). - In 2027-28, household net income rises by £18 a year on average, from £12 in the lowest income decile to £24 in the ninth. ## What the Budget changes -Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March 2022. Before the Budget, the cut was due to end in two steps: the rate was to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)), and to return to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, the rate in [section 6 of the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6). Government policy since Budget 2025 was to uprate the rate by RPI from April 2027. +Fuel duty on petrol and diesel has been 52.95p a litre since the 5p cut of March 2022. Before the Budget, the cut was due to end in two steps: the rate was to rise to 55.95p on 1 January 2027 ([SI 2026/164](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/164), as amended by [SI 2026/555](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2026/555/made)), and to return to 57.95p on 1 March 2027, the rate in [section 6 of the Hydrocarbon Oil Duties Act 1979](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1979/5/section/6) ([HMRC, Amended Fuel Duty rates: 2026 to 2027](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/amended-fuel-duty-rates-for-2026-to-2027/amended-fuel-duty-rates-2026-to-2027)). Government policy since Budget 2025 was to uprate the rate by RPI from April 2027. The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-2026-document/budget-2026-html) keeps the 5p cut for six more months, to 1 July 2027, and moves the planned RPI increase to the same date. HM Treasury's [policy costings](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/supporting-documents-for-budget-2026) set out what follows: on 1 July 2027, the rates rise by 5p a litre and by RPI, and from 1 April 2028 they rise by RPI each year. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) puts the main rate after the July 2027 rise at 60.59p ([Economic and fiscal outlook](https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-october-2026/), October 2026, paragraph 3.19). The rate before the Budget from 1 April 2027 is our assumption; the appendix sets it out. @@ -21,7 +21,8 @@ The [Budget 2026 document](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/budget-202 | 1 January to 28 February 2027 | 59 | 55.95p | 52.95p | 3.00p | 3.60p | | 1 to 31 March 2027 | 31 | 57.95p | 52.95p | 5.00p | 6.00p | | 1 April to 30 June 2027 | 91 | 60.59p | 52.95p | 7.64p | 9.17p | -| From 1 July 2027 | – | 60.59p | 60.59p | 0p | 0p | +| 1 July 2027 to 31 March 2028 | 275 | 60.59p | 60.59p | 0p | 0p | +| From 1 April 2028 | – | Rises with RPI | Rises with RPI | 0p | 0p | VAT at 20% applies to the pump price, which includes the duty. If retailers pass the change on in full, a 50-litre tank costs about £2 less in January or February 2027, £3 less in March 2027 and £5 less from April to June 2027. @@ -91,8 +92,8 @@ The same saving by litres bought a week: | ------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------------- | ----------------- | ------------------------- | -------------------------------- | ------- | ------- | | 10 litres | about 520 litres | £3 | £3 | £12 | £18 | £6 | £11 | | 20 litres | about 1,040 litres | £6 | £5 | £24 | £35 | £13 | £23 | -| 40 litres | about 2,080 litres | £12 | £11 | £48 | £70 | £25 | £45 | -| 60 litres | about 3,120 litres | £18 | £16 | £72 | £106 | £38 | £68 | +| 40 litres | about 2,090 litres | £12 | £11 | £48 | £70 | £25 | £45 | +| 60 litres | about 3,130 litres | £18 | £16 | £72 | £106 | £38 | £68 | _Figures may not sum because of rounding._ @@ -306,13 +307,11 @@ The saving rises in proportion to the fuel that a household uses. A household wi The measure lowers a tax on spending, so it does not change any income that taxes or benefits depend on. The table shows household net income in 2027-28 for three households that each use 1,000 litres a year. The appendix gives each household's rent, council tax and State Pension. -| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income without the measure | Net income with the measure | Change | -| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | --------------------------- | ------ | -| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,334 | £24,355 | £22 | -| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,046 | £38,067 | £22 | -| Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,616, Council Tax Reduction £1,544 | £19,917 | £19,939 | £22 | - -_Figures may not sum because of rounding._ +| Household | Benefits in 2027-28 | Net income without the measure | Net income with the measure | Change | +| ------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------ | --------------------------- | ------ | +| Single adult, £30,000 salary | None | £24,333 | £24,355 | £22 | +| Couple with two children, one earner on £25,000, renting privately | Universal Credit £16,441, Child Benefit £2,419 | £38,045 | £38,067 | £22 | +| Single pensioner on the full new State Pension, renting from the council | Housing Benefit £7,682, Council Tax Reduction £1,564, Winter Fuel Payment £200 | £20,002 | £20,024 | £22 | The table shows the fuel duty measure on its own. It leaves out the Budget's other measures: under the Pension Tax Allowance, for example, the pensioner would pay no income tax in 2027-28, instead of £93. @@ -321,7 +320,7 @@ In each household, net income rises by the £22 saving on duty and VAT, and no b The measure does not interact with other programmes in PolicyEngine UK, for three reasons: - **Means tests use income, not spending.** Universal Credit, Pension Credit, Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction depend on income and capital. Fuel duty enters only the household's taxes, so the lower pump price does not reduce any award. -- **Benefit uprating does not change.** April 2027 uprating uses September 2026 inflation, before the measure applies. April 2028 uprating uses September 2027 inflation. The duty rate is the same with and without the Budget in both September 2026 (52.95p) and September 2027 (60.59p), so the measure does not change the September 2027 annual inflation rate through pump prices. +- **Benefit uprating does not change.** In PolicyEngine UK, benefit uprating comes from fixed forecast inputs, which the measure does not change. - **Marginal tax rates do not change.** Each household's effective marginal tax rate is the same with and without the measure: 28% for the single adult, 68% for the couple on Universal Credit and 66% for the pensioner on Housing Benefit in 2027-28. ## Population results @@ -502,7 +501,7 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income } ``` -The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.0001 in 2026-27 and 0.0002 in 2027-28. +The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. The Gini index of equivalised household net income falls by 0.01% in 2026-27 and 0.02% in 2027-28. ## Appendix @@ -510,7 +509,7 @@ The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. The Gini index o PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. HM Treasury's figures use fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. -Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. The couple pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax; the pensioner pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax. The pensioner gets the full new State Pension, £13,036 in 2027-28. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. They are the same on the March 2026 forecast in PolicyEngine UK 2.151.0. +Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. All three households live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region. The single adult is 40. The couple are both 35, with children aged 8 and 5; they pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax, and claim Universal Credit. The pensioner is 72, gets the full new State Pension (£13,036 in 2027-28), pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax, and claims Pension Credit and Housing Benefit; their net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. @@ -518,7 +517,7 @@ The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was No source gives the pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, because the government had not set it. We assume that the RPI increase that the Budget moves to July was due in April at the same size, so the rate before the Budget is 60.59p from 1 April 2027. PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses the same assumption. With PolicyEngine UK's own projection for April 2027, 59.75p, the April to June saving is 6.80p a litre instead of 7.64p, and the 2027-28 saving for 1,000 litres is £19 instead of £22. -The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels; this post covers petrol and diesel only. +The same main rate applies to petrol and diesel across the UK. Retailers in [Rural Fuel Duty Relief](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rural-duty-relief-scheme-notice-2001) areas claim 5p a litre back both before and after the Budget, so the saving is the same if they pass the relief on. The costing also applies a proportionate cut to the rates for other fuels and rebated fuels, where practical; this post covers petrol and diesel only. ### Effective marginal tax rate @@ -526,7 +525,7 @@ The effective marginal tax rate is the share of an extra £1 of earnings that a ### Poverty and deciles -The poverty measure is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) absolute measure before housing costs: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. Deciles rank households by equivalised household net income before housing costs. +The poverty measure is the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) absolute measure before housing costs: a person is in absolute poverty if their household's equivalised income before housing costs is below 60% of the 2024-25 median, held constant in real terms. HBAI income deducts direct taxes but not taxes on spending such as fuel duty and VAT, so the measure does not include the saving. Deciles rank households by equivalised HBAI household net income before housing costs, with a tenth of people in each decile. The share of income uses each decile's total household net income. ### Population run @@ -534,7 +533,7 @@ PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard runs the same measure on its represe ### Comparison with the Treasury and the OBR -PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The Treasury's figure covers fuel duty receipts only: the OBR scores the measure as fuel duty, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel used in the UK, including vans, lorries and business use of cars, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. +PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the lower pump price; no benefit changes, so it equals the rise in household net income, and negative figures are costs. VAT is 17% of the total. The OBR scores the Treasury's figure as fuel duty receipts, with no VAT line (Economic and fiscal outlook, October 2026, detailed forecast tables, policy, Table 1.1). The two estimates also differ in coverage and timing. PolicyEngine covers the petrol and diesel that households buy, which carry £13.4 billion of fuel duty in 2026-27 in PolicyEngine's data; the OBR expects £24 billion of fuel duty receipts in that year. The Treasury's base is every litre of taxable fuel made available for use in the UK, which includes fuel that businesses buy, and its costing allows for people buying more fuel when pump prices fall (policy costings, page 13). PolicyEngine gives the change in liability in each tax year, from 6 April; the Treasury gives the change in receipts in each fiscal year, from 1 April. ### Assumptions and limitations @@ -543,14 +542,14 @@ PolicyEngine's total cost is the fall in fuel duty plus the fall in VAT on the l - We assume that retailers pass the full duty change, and the VAT on it, into pump prices. Pump prices also depend on oil prices and retail margins, which we hold fixed. - The pre-Budget rate from 1 April 2027, 60.59p, is our assumption, as set out above. After 1 July 2027, the rate path is the same with and without the Budget measure, so later RPI forecasts do not change the results. - The examples cover cars that run on petrol or diesel. The Budget also extends the 3.7p cut to red diesel to 1 July 2027 (Table 6.1, row 18) and keeps the HGV road tax holiday to 1 July 2027. This post does not cover those measures, or the increase in tax-free mileage rates. -- Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save, which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. +- Outside the model, fuel bought for business use is a cost for the self-employed and for employers. A lower duty raises the profits of self-employed drivers by the amount they save (the duty only, for VAT-registered businesses, which reclaim VAT), which can raise their income tax and lower their Universal Credit. This post covers household fuel only. -The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure covers all fuel duty decisions since 2024; the figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. +The Budget estimates that the government's fuel duty decisions in this Parliament save the average car driver £230, compared with the previous government's plans. That figure compares current policy with a baseline in which the 5p cut ended in April 2025 and rates rose with RPI each April from then (Budget 2026, footnote 98). The figures in this post cover the Budget 2026 measure only. ### Methodology -We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast, which we apply as PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard does (a scenario applied before data load). The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. +We used the `policyengine` Python package (version 6.11.1) with PolicyEngine UK (version 2.151.0). We ran `calculate_household` for each household with two parameter reforms to the fuel duty rate on petrol and diesel: one with the pre-Budget rates and one with the Budget rates, each keyed to the dates above. PolicyEngine UK keys its April 2027 rate at 59.75p, uprated by the March 2026 RPI forecast, so both scenarios replace it with 60.59p. PolicyEngine UK weights each rate by the days it applies in the tax year. The net income table and the marginal rates run on the OBR October 2026 forecast: we build each household as a PolicyEngine UK simulation with the dashboard's forecast scenario, applied before data load, and add the measure to the same scenario. The duty and VAT savings do not depend on the forecast. -PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. For the net income table, we lower the household's `vat` by that amount in the Budget scenario, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`. We use the rates, dates and VAT treatment of the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres, computed from the rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at each point. +PolicyEngine UK holds spending on fuel fixed and does not pass a duty change into VAT, so we add 20% of the duty change for the VAT on the pump price. In those simulations, the VAT step lowers the household's `vat` by that amount, so the change flows through `vat_change` into `household_net_income`, as the dashboard's VAT modifier does. We use the rates, dates and VAT treatment of the fuel duty measure in PolicyEngine's [Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard](https://policyengine.org/uk/autumn-budget-2026). The saving is linear in litres, so the chart plots its value every 100 litres, computed from the rules and checked against PolicyEngine UK at each point. The population results come from a run of the dashboard's measure on PolicyEngine's certified UK household data. We reproduced them in a separate run with the same package, data and forecast: the cost is £301 million in 2026-27 and £521 million in 2027-28, of which VAT is 17%, and the average gain is £10 and £18 a household. From e3a4bee5a025180fbb153af327a874139d414f77 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:19:16 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 66/68] Title the post 'The fuel duty cut extension in the Autumn Budget 2026' Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index a4efffcb3..bcfedda1a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ [ { - "title": "The fuel duty cut extension, step by step", + "title": "The fuel duty cut extension in the Autumn Budget 2026", "description": "The Budget keeps fuel duty at 52.95p a litre to 30 June 2027. We show how the duty and VAT on each litre change, and what this means for households by the fuel they use.", "date": "2026-10-28 19:00:00", "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax"], From 42a6de00caf0de82aeb328aac291c08ac807b7eb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: PavelMakarchuk Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:22:20 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 67/68] Say that the pensioner gets no Pension Credit MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Their income after tax (£12,943) is above the October guarantee (£12,761), so the table lists Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 749123e2b..579be447d 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -509,7 +509,7 @@ The absolute poverty rate before housing costs does not change. The Gini index o PolicyEngine UK's tax years run from 6 April to 5 April, so 2026-27 covers 1 January to 5 April 2027 and 2027-28 covers 6 April to 30 June 2027. HM Treasury's figures use fiscal years from 1 April to 31 March, so the first five days of April 2027 fall in a different year. -Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. All three households live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region. The single adult is 40. The couple are both 35, with children aged 8 and 5; they pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax, and claim Universal Credit. The pensioner is 72, gets the full new State Pension (£13,036 in 2027-28), pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax, and claims Pension Credit and Housing Benefit; their net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. +Net income is PolicyEngine UK's household net income: income from all sources and benefits, less direct taxes, council tax, the TV licence and the modelled duties, with the VAT change on fuel included. All three households live in London, PolicyEngine UK's default region. The single adult is 40. The couple are both 35, with children aged 8 and 5; they pay £9,600 a year in rent and £1,800 in council tax, and claim Universal Credit. The pensioner is 72, gets the full new State Pension (£13,036 in 2027-28), pays £7,800 in rent and £1,600 in council tax, and gets Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction; their income is above the Pension Credit guarantee, so they get no Pension Credit. Their net income includes the £200 Winter Fuel Payment. The 2027-28 benefit amounts are PolicyEngine UK projections on the OBR's October 2026 forecast, the forecast that PolicyEngine's Autumn Budget 2026 dashboard uses. The model's pump prices are fixed and below October 2026 prices, when diesel was above £2 a litre, so the same spending buys fewer litres today; the examples in this post are set in litres for that reason. From be1b1cf3d726bdb8069513a3a569f0385efc2cb6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2026 12:43:56 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 68/68] Decile charts: values from the dashboard's calculators at #290's 9b98370e MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The two decile charts held the 0d9dccb2 preview's values, from before the October detailed-table inputs. These are the dashboard's own DistributionalImpactCalculator and WinnersLosersCalculator on fuel_duty_rise_deferral at 9b98370e, the bundle's certified data and the October forecast. They are stored to 3 dp (pounds) and 5 dp (shares), so the charts' toFixed rounds once. Shown values that change: decile 2, 2026-27, £7 to £8; decile 7, 2027-28, £20 to £19; decile 10's 2027-28 share, 0.015% to 0.014%, as the text says. Every other bar, and every figure in the text, is unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md | 78 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 39 insertions(+), 39 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md index 579be447d..915e98a2a 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/fuel-duty-cut-extension.md @@ -363,53 +363,53 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "data": [ { "decile": "1", - "y2026": 6.93, - "y2027": 12.07 + "y2026": 6.92, + "y2027": 12.092 }, { "decile": "2", - "y2026": 7.49, - "y2027": 12.77 + "y2026": 7.503, + "y2027": 12.771 }, { "decile": "3", - "y2026": 8.09, - "y2027": 13.91 + "y2026": 8.049, + "y2027": 13.895 }, { "decile": "4", - "y2026": 9.08, - "y2027": 15.43 + "y2026": 9.059, + "y2027": 15.468 }, { "decile": "5", - "y2026": 9.56, - "y2027": 16.76 + "y2026": 9.623, + "y2027": 16.738 }, { "decile": "6", - "y2026": 11.12, - "y2027": 18.89 + "y2026": 11.138, + "y2027": 18.919 }, { "decile": "7", - "y2026": 11.3, - "y2027": 19.55 + "y2026": 11.313, + "y2027": 19.495 }, { "decile": "8", - "y2026": 12.9, - "y2027": 22.3 + "y2026": 12.867, + "y2027": 22.335 }, { "decile": "9", - "y2026": 13.86, - "y2027": 23.9 + "y2026": 13.87, + "y2027": 23.862 }, { "decile": "10", - "y2026": 13.35, - "y2027": 22.95 + "y2026": 13.354, + "y2027": 22.928 } ], "yLabel": "Average gain", @@ -443,53 +443,53 @@ In cash terms, the average gain in 2027-28 rises from £12 in the lowest income "data": [ { "decile": "1", - "y2026": 0.0271, - "y2027": 0.0466 + "y2026": 0.027, + "y2027": 0.0467 }, { "decile": "2", - "y2026": 0.0189, - "y2027": 0.032 + "y2026": 0.01904, + "y2027": 0.03198 }, { "decile": "3", - "y2026": 0.0184, - "y2027": 0.0312 + "y2026": 0.01831, + "y2027": 0.03117 }, { "decile": "4", - "y2026": 0.0192, - "y2027": 0.0319 + "y2026": 0.01908, + "y2027": 0.03195 }, { "decile": "5", - "y2026": 0.018, - "y2027": 0.0309 + "y2026": 0.01812, + "y2027": 0.03087 }, { "decile": "6", "y2026": 0.0192, - "y2027": 0.032 + "y2027": 0.03199 }, { "decile": "7", - "y2026": 0.0178, - "y2027": 0.03 + "y2026": 0.01781, + "y2027": 0.02991 }, { "decile": "8", - "y2026": 0.0178, - "y2027": 0.0303 + "y2026": 0.01777, + "y2027": 0.03037 }, { "decile": "9", - "y2026": 0.0162, - "y2027": 0.0274 + "y2026": 0.01625, + "y2027": 0.02738 }, { "decile": "10", - "y2026": 0.0086, - "y2027": 0.0145 + "y2026": 0.00863, + "y2027": 0.01447 } ], "yLabel": "% of income",