From bb199b01f6a918f8f4b6e970ee1268e74916a810 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:45:38 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/7] Add the spm-calculator 1.0 announcement and the 2025 SPM poverty prediction posts Two US research posts: one introducing spm-calculator 1.0 (published BLS thresholds through 2025, rolling CE and ACS projections to 2035, the pre-committed nowcast evaluation, and what changed from the old package) and one recording PolicyEngine's pre-committed prediction for the 2025 SPM poverty rate with how the model builds the number and its current limitations. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../prediction-chart.png | Bin 0 -> 104470 bytes .../articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md | 42 + .../articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md | 46 + .../images/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.webp | Bin 0 -> 55416 bytes .../images/introducing-spm-calculator.webp | Bin 0 -> 83262 bytes app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 2121 +++++++++++++---- 6 files changed, 1764 insertions(+), 445 deletions(-) create mode 100644 app/public/assets/posts/2025-spm-poverty-prediction/prediction-chart.png create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/images/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.webp create mode 100644 app/src/data/posts/images/introducing-spm-calculator.webp diff --git a/app/public/assets/posts/2025-spm-poverty-prediction/prediction-chart.png b/app/public/assets/posts/2025-spm-poverty-prediction/prediction-chart.png new file 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literal 0 HcmV?d00001 diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..e3825a13e --- /dev/null +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md @@ -0,0 +1,42 @@ +On Tuesday, September 15, the Census Bureau publishes poverty rates for 2025. Our prediction for the Supplemental Poverty Measure is 13.2 percent of people, up from 13.0 percent in 2024. For children we predict 14.3 percent, up from 13.4; for people 65 and over, 14.6 percent, down from 15.1. + +We wrote the numbers down before the release. The prediction file, its hash, and an OpenTimestamps proof are in the [spm-threshold-paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper/blob/master/data/predictions/2025-spm-poverty-rates-2026-09-11.json). If it misses, it stays there. + +## How the number is built + +The prediction is the Census 2024 rate plus PolicyEngine's modeled change from 2024 to 2025. We do not publish the model's own level as the prediction, because the level differs from Census by construction: the model computes benefits from program rules instead of taking reported amounts, fits its population weights to administrative totals, and projects 2024 households forward rather than surveying 2025 ones. Poverty rates are never among the totals the weights are fitted to. That holdout is what makes the comparison on Tuesday informative. + +| Group | Census 2024 | Modeled change, pp | Prediction 2025 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| All people | 13.0 | +0.22 | 13.2 | +| Under 18 | 13.4 | +0.86 | 14.3 | +| 65 and over | 15.1 | −0.52 | 14.6 | + +The 2024 anchors are the corrected series Census published in August after BLS revised the thresholds. On the original series the anchors are 12.9, 13.4 and 15.0, and the predictions round to 13.1, 14.3 and 14.5. + +The model in production until this week would have predicted a fall, to 12.5 percent. It aged the 2024 thresholds by 2.6 percent CPI-U inflation. The thresholds BLS published in August rose 4.4 to 6.3 percent, and the new [spm-calculator](/us/research/introducing-spm-calculator) uses them directly. Most of the difference between the two predictions is that threshold growth. + +The modeled changes come from development runs on policyengine-core 3.30.1. A rerun on the exact runtime we are shipping is in progress as this posts; the prediction file commits us to adding a dated amendment, never an edit, if any group's change moves by 0.05 points or more. + +## How PolicyEngine calculates SPM poverty + +A person is in poverty when their SPM unit's resources are below its threshold. Three parts feed that comparison. + +**Population.** The Microcosm US dataset holds 57,240 Current Population Survey households with 166,321 people. Their weights are fitted to 5,659 administrative targets: IRS income statistics by state and income level, Census population estimates by age and sex, Medicaid and Marketplace enrollment, SNAP participation and benefits, SSI, TANF, state tax collections and national accounts. 2025 values are the 2024 survey values carried forward by the model's uprating parameters for wages, prices and program rules, with household composition held at 2024. + +**Thresholds.** spm-calculator supplies each unit's threshold from the published BLS 2025 national values and housing shares, the three-parameter equivalence scale, and a rent index for the unit's metro or nonmetro area. The 2025 rent indices are modeled, since Census had not published 2025 geography when the artifact was built. + +**Resources.** Market income from the survey, plus benefits computed from statute for eligible units that the data marks as taking them up (Social Security, SSI, SNAP, WIC, school meals, TANF, unemployment compensation, energy assistance, and housing subsidies capped at the housing portion of the threshold), minus payroll, federal and state income taxes computed from statute, minus child support paid, medical out-of-pocket expenses and capped work and child care expenses. + +The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEngine US methodology documentation](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-us/blob/main/docs-quarto/methodology/spm-poverty.qmd). It is maintained with the code. + +## What the model does not do + +- **Medicaid does not change non-premium medical spending.** The model computes Medicaid eligibility and enrollment, and it computes premiums from rules for Medicare, Marketplace coverage and CHIP (Medicaid expansion premium schedules are encoded for three states but are zero in the current baselines). Non-premium medical spending, which is most of MOOP, is a survey input uprated with CMS per-capita spending. Enrolling someone in Medicaid, or removing their coverage, leaves that spending unchanged, so coverage changes reach poverty only through the premium components. +- **Copays and employer premiums.** Neither is computed from rules; both stay as reported. +- **Levels.** The model's own 2025 level is 13.2 percent for all people, 16.6 for children and 10.9 for seniors. The child and senior levels sit far from Census, in opposite directions, which is why we report changes. Those gaps are open questions for us, not corrections to Census. +- **Local thresholds for 2025** are projections until Census publishes the geography. + +## What Tuesday tells us + +Census will publish the 2025 rate and a revised 2024 rate on the corrected thresholds. We will grade the prediction against the published change for each group, add the result to the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper), and write up what the misses point to. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..a248c774b --- /dev/null +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md @@ -0,0 +1,46 @@ +Every SPM poverty rate starts with a threshold: the amount a family of a given size and housing situation needs, in its part of the country, in a given year. Census publishes the rates each September. BLS publishes the national thresholds a few weeks earlier, and the local adjustments arrive with the microdata. Anyone who wants a threshold for a year Census has not reached yet has had to guess. + +[spm-calculator 1.0](https://pypi.org/project/spm-calculator/1.0.0/) is our answer to that. It computes a Supplemental Poverty Measure threshold for any family composition, housing tenure, and metro or nonmetro area, for 2022 through 2035. Through 2025 it uses the published BLS values. Beyond that it projects them by the method BLS and Census use, advancing the same data windows they advance. The [calculator app](https://policyengine.org/us/spm-calculator) runs the same artifact in the browser. + +## What a threshold is made of + +BLS sets the national threshold for a reference family of two adults and two children from five years of Consumer Expenditure Survey data. It takes families between the 47th and 53rd percentiles of spending on food, clothing, shelter, utilities, telephone and internet, multiplies that spending by 1.2, swaps the sample's average shelter and utilities for the tenure group's own, and takes 82 percent of the result. The 2025 renter threshold is $41,700.56; owners with a mortgage $41,322.71; owners without $34,326.00. Census then scales for family size with the three-parameter equivalence scale and adjusts the housing share by a local rent index built from five years of American Community Survey rents. + +The calculator carries each of those pieces separately, with its own status. A 2025 national threshold is published. A 2025 local threshold combines that published base with a rent index the calculator models, because Census had not published 2025 geography by the artifact's information date of September 9, 2026. The result tells you which is which. + +## Forecasting by moving the window, not the price level + +The usual way to extend a threshold is to age it with the CPI. That assumes real spending near the poverty line stays flat and that the estimation window stands still. Neither holds. BLS's 2025 thresholds rose 4.4 to 6.3 percent over 2024, against 2.6 percent CPI-U inflation, because the five-year window dropped 2019 spending and picked up 2024. + +spm-calculator projects a future year by projecting the observations the window would contain: each missing CE quarter borrows the latest observed quarter of the same season, scaled by a price path and a real-spending assumption. Two scenarios ship in the artifact. `ce_trend` carries forward half of the fitted real-spending trend; `zero_real` holds real spending at the anchor. Missing ACS rent years copy the 2024 cohort at zero real rent growth under both scenarios, so local factors change only as the five-year window turns over. The price path is CBO's February 2026 CPI-U forecast, pinned by hash. + +We tested the method before we relied on it. On August 7 we [committed](https://spm-threshold-paper.vercel.app/) a 2025 threshold nowcast with a timestamp proof. BLS published the actual 2025 thresholds on August 24. Across the three tenures the amended nowcast's mean absolute error was 1.17 percent, and the original nowcast's 0.98 percent; CPI-U aging would have been 2.58 percent. Renters were the miss, at 2.27 percent low. The retrospective 2020 to 2024 backtest is in the [paper](https://spm-threshold-paper.vercel.app/). + +## What changed from the old package + +Two corrections, both ours to own. In July, BLS found errors in its own threshold code and reissued 2019 to 2024 thresholds; the calculator now uses the corrected series at full spreadsheet precision, and keeps the pre-correction series for reproducing older statistics. Benchmarking our replication against both series also surfaced errors in the package's earlier hand-entered thresholds, as large as 5.8 percent for 2019 renters, and four bugs in our replication code. The [correction record](https://policyengine-docs.vercel.app/spm-calculator/bls-2026-correction) lists each one. + +The app also lost options. Earlier versions offered county and congressional-district thresholds computed from local rents. Census estimates rents only for metro areas, combined smaller-metro residuals and nonmetro residuals by state, so those finer geographies implied a precision the method does not have. The app now offers the 341 estimation areas Census uses, plus eight nonmetro residuals the calculator models where Census publishes none, and a county is a lookup into that menu. + +## What it does not do + +The calculator computes thresholds. It does not compute resources, so it does not produce a poverty rate; that is the job of the tax and benefit model, and our [prediction for Tuesday's 2025 rate](/us/research/2025-spm-poverty-prediction) explains how the two fit together. It validates against BLS's published cells rather than replicating BLS's code. Its forecasts are conditional on the CBO price path and on real spending following one of the two scenarios, and every projected number carries that label. + +## Using it + +```bash +uv add spm-calculator +``` + +```python +from spm_calculator import SPMUnit, load_forecast + +forecast = load_forecast() +result = forecast.calculate_unit( + SPMUnit("example", num_adults=2, num_children=2, tenure="renter", + year=2025, geography_kind="national") +) +result["threshold"] # 41700.555713 +``` + +The package works offline from bundled inputs. 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c#U19=`W;<*VPV$a$NDj6j8Z172i}7V04yf?LjV8( literal 0 HcmV?d00001 diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 9b8f39de4..1f13851fe 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,10 +1,46 @@ [ + { + "title": "Our prediction for Tuesday's 2025 poverty numbers", + "description": "PolicyEngine predicts a 2025 SPM poverty rate of 13.2 percent, up from 13.0, with 14.3 for children and 14.6 for people 65 and over. How the model builds the number, and what it does not yet do.", + "date": "2026-09-11", + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "filename": "2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md", + "image": "2025-spm-poverty-prediction.webp" + }, + { + "title": "Introducing spm-calculator 1.0: SPM thresholds for any family, anywhere, through 2035", + "description": "The rebuilt calculator uses BLS's corrected thresholds through 2025 and projects later years by advancing the same expenditure and rent windows BLS and Census use. Its August nowcast of the 2025 thresholds missed by 1.17 percent; CPI aging would have missed by 2.58.", + "date": "2026-09-11", + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "filename": "introducing-spm-calculator.md", + "image": "introducing-spm-calculator.webp" + }, { "title": "Who bears the AI shock? Distributional and fiscal incidence in the UK", "description": "PolicyEngine traces AI employment, wage and capital shocks through the UK tax-benefit system, estimating the budgetary and distributional impacts across incidence scenarios.", "date": "2026-08-04", - "tags": ["uk", "ai", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "ai", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-ai-study.md", "image": "uk-ai-study.jpg", "imageCredit": "dig.watch" @@ -13,8 +49,15 @@ "title": "How we used Claude Code to apply for the Public Benefit Innovation Fund", "description": "Treating writing as software development, we built an entire grant application with interactive demos, perfect consistency, and real-time stakeholder iteration.", "date": "2025-08-28", - "tags": ["us", "org", "ai", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "ai", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "policyengine-atlas-pbif-grant.md", "image": "policyengine-atlas-demo.png" }, @@ -22,8 +65,14 @@ "title": "Expansion of free childcare hours", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impacts of the 2023 expansion to the extended childcare entitlement.", "date": "2025-05-17", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "childcare-expansion-2023.md", "image": "uk_childcare_report.webp" }, @@ -31,8 +80,14 @@ "title": "Introducing PolicyBench: how accurately can AI compute taxes and benefits?", "description": "We tested 13 frontier language models on 100 representative US households, with no tools, scored against PolicyEngine. GPT-5.5 leads, getting 80.3% exactly right.", "date": "2026-06-16", - "tags": ["us", "ai", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "ai", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "introducing-policybench.md", "image": "introducing-policybench.webp" }, @@ -40,8 +95,15 @@ "title": "The Keep Your Pay Act's AMT interaction", "description": "Senator Booker's proposed standard deduction increase triggers AMT for some high earners, clawing back over half of tax savings compared to a simple bracket calculation.", "date": "2026-03-10", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "tax", "featured"], - "authors": ["daphne-hansell"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "tax", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "daphne-hansell" + ], "filename": "keep-your-pay-act-amt-interaction.md", "image": "keep-your-pay-act-amt-interaction.webp" }, @@ -49,8 +111,14 @@ "title": "How reintroducing the two-child benefit limit would affect the UK", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the budgetary, distributional, poverty, and inequality impacts of reintroducing the two-child benefit limit across the UK.", "date": "2026-02-24", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-two-child-limit-reintroduction.md", "image": "uk-two-child-limit-reintroduction.webp" }, @@ -58,8 +126,16 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine completes TANF modeling for all 50 states and DC", "description": "AI-assisted workflows enabled nationwide coverage of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, now available through the web app, Python package, and API.", "date": "2026-02-17", - "tags": ["us", "technical", "ai", "featured"], - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk", "ziming-hua"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical", + "ai", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk", + "ziming-hua" + ], "filename": "tanf-50-state-coverage.md", "image": "tanf-50-state-coverage.svg" }, @@ -67,8 +143,16 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine's state income tax model updated for tax year 2025", "description": "PolicyEngine has updated state income tax brackets, deductions, exemptions, and credits across all 50 states for accurate tax year 2025 calculations.", "date": "2026-02-17", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "technical"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer", "pavel-makarchuk", "ziming-hua"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "technical" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer", + "pavel-makarchuk", + "ziming-hua" + ], "filename": "state-income-tax-2025-update.md", "image": "state-updates-2025.webp" }, @@ -76,8 +160,15 @@ "title": "Analysis of South Carolina H.3492: Making the state EITC partially refundable", "description": "PolicyEngine projects the bill would lower state revenues by $402 million while reducing child poverty by 5.4% in 2026.", "date": "2026-02-04", - "tags": ["us", "us-sc", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-sc", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "sc-h3492-eitc-refundability.md", "image": "sc-h3492-eitc-refundability.webp" }, @@ -85,8 +176,15 @@ "title": "How PolicyEngine's CTC Calculator informed Rhode Island Governor McKee's Child Tax Credit design", "description": "PolicyEngine developed a Rhode Island Child Tax Credit Calculator to help policymakers analyze how different CTC reforms would impact the state and its families.", "date": "2026-01-29", - "tags": ["us", "us-ri", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ri", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "ri-ctc-calculator-press-release.md", "image": "ri-ctc-calc.webp" }, @@ -94,8 +192,15 @@ "title": "Analysis of Rhode Island Governor McKee's proposed Child Tax Credit", "description": "The $325 fully refundable credit would cost $36.7 million and benefit 29.2% of Rhode Island residents.", "date": "2026-01-29", - "tags": ["us", "us-ri", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ri", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "ri-governor-mckee-child-tax-credit.md", "image": "ri-governor-mckee-ctc.webp" }, @@ -103,8 +208,13 @@ "title": "Validating unemployment insurance estimates", "description": "PolicyEngine corrects CPS underreporting of UI benefits using quantile regression forests and reweighting, matching administrative totals within 2-4%.", "date": "2026-01-25", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates.md", "image": "validating-unemployment-insurance-estimates-hero.webp" }, @@ -112,8 +222,14 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine powers rapid policy analysis at No 10 Downing Street", "description": "Our CTO Nikhil Woodruff spent six months as an Innovation Fellow adapting PolicyEngine's microsimulation technology for government use.", "date": "2026-01-20 12:00:00", - "tags": ["global", "org", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "org", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "policyengine-10-downing-street.md", "image": "https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/13/10_Downing_Street._MOD_45155532.jpg/1280px-10_Downing_Street._MOD_45155532.jpg" }, @@ -121,8 +237,13 @@ "title": "Stronger Start for Working Families Act: Eliminating the CTC earnings threshold", "description": "The bipartisan legislation would cost $14.6 billion over ten years and benefit 5.9% of Americans.", "date": "2026-01-13", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "stronger-start-working-families-act.md", "image": "stronger-start-working-families-act.webp" }, @@ -130,8 +251,14 @@ "title": "Utah SB60: Proposed income tax rate reduction for 2026", "description": "Utah Senate Bill 60 would reduce the state's flat income tax rate from 4.5% to 4.45%, lowering state revenues by $83.6 million and benefiting 53.2% of residents.", "date": "2026-01-12", - "tags": ["us", "us-ut", "policy"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ut", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "utah-sb60-income-tax-reduction.md", "image": "ut-SB60.webp" }, @@ -139,62 +266,104 @@ "title": "Arnold Ventures awards grant for congressional district analysis", "description": "PolicyEngine receives grant to develop state and congressional district-level policy analysis capabilities.", "date": "2025-07-21 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "arnold-ventures-congressional-districts-grant.md", "image": "arnold-ventures-congressional-districts-grant.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Supporting Better Government Lab research on benefit takeup", "description": "PolicyEngine provides technical guidance and modeling expertise for research on benefit program takeup.", "date": "2025-08-14 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org" + ], "filename": "policyengine-better-government-lab-collaboration.md", "image": "policyengine-better-government-lab-collaboration.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Supporting a University of Southern California study on marginal tax rates", "description": "PolicyEngine supports Matt Unrath's research analyzing effective marginal and average tax rates using our open-source microsimulation platform.", "date": "2025-08-16 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org" + ], "filename": "policyengine-usc-collaboration.md", "image": "policyengine-usc-collaboration.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Illinois Benefit Hub launches with PolicyEngine-powered eligibility screening", "description": "New benefits screening platform helps Illinois residents identify public assistance programs they may qualify for using PolicyEngine's open-source API.", "date": "2025-10-27 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "illinois-benefit-hub.md", "image": "illinois-benefit-hub.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Pritzker Children's Initiative awards grant for child poverty analysis", "description": "Grant supports building a child poverty impact dashboard, expanding TANF and child care subsidy modeling to all 50 states, and training partners on PolicyEngine tools.", "date": "2025-12-10 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "pritzker-childrens-initiative-grant.md", "image": "pritzker-childrens-initiative-grant.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "PolicyEngine and Atlanta Fed sign memorandum of understanding for Policy Rules Database validation", "description": "Partnership enables multi-model validation of tax and benefit microsimulation across PolicyEngine, TAXSIM, and the Atlanta Fed's Policy Rules Database.", "date": "2025-10-23 12:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "policyengine-atlanta-fed-mou-prd.md", "image": "policyengine-atlanta-fed-mou-prd.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "Combined impacts of Autumn Budget 2025 reforms", - "description": "Nine tax and benefit measures shift from costing \u00a36.6bn in 2026-27 to raising \u00a312.4bn by 2030-31, reducing inequality and child poverty while increasing taxes on higher earners.", + "description": "Nine tax and benefit measures shift from costing £6.6bn in 2026-27 to raising £12.4bn by 2030-31, reducing inequality and child poverty while increasing taxes on higher earners.", "date": "2025-12-09 12:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-combined-reforms-autumn-budget-2025.md", "image": "Autumn-2025-Budget-combined.webp", "imageCredit": "gov.uk", @@ -204,8 +373,13 @@ "title": "GiveCalc UK: Calculate your Gift Aid tax relief", "description": "A free calculator that shows how Gift Aid affects your taxes, including higher rate relief and Scottish income tax rates.", "date": "2025-12-02 12:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "giving"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "giving" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "uk-giving-tuesday-2025.md", "image": "us-giving-tuesday-2025/cover.webp" }, @@ -213,17 +387,29 @@ "title": "GiveCalc US: Calculate your charitable giving tax savings", "description": "Calculate how charitable donations affect your federal and state taxes with our rebuilt, standalone web application.", "date": "2025-12-02", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "giving"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "giving" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "us-giving-tuesday-2025.md", "image": "us-giving-tuesday-2025/cover.webp" }, { - "title": "How a \u00a32,000 salary sacrifice cap would affect workers", - "description": "Capping salary sacrifice pension contributions at \u00a32,000 would raise \u00a34.2-7.8 billion in 2029-30 depending on behavioural responses, with impacts concentrated on higher earners.", + "title": "How a £2,000 salary sacrifice cap would affect workers", + "description": "Capping salary sacrifice pension contributions at £2,000 would raise £4.2-7.8 billion in 2029-30 depending on behavioural responses, with impacts concentrated on higher earners.", "date": "2025-11-27", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-salary-sacrifice-cap.md", "image": "uk-salary-sacrifice-cap/cover.webp", "imageCredit": "qualitycompanyformations", @@ -233,18 +419,30 @@ "title": "OBR November 2025 economic projections: what changed", "description": "The OBR revised up inflation and earnings forecasts in the November 2025 Autumn Budget. We compare the new projections to March 2025.", "date": "2025-11-26 18:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "technical"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "technical" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "obr-november-2025-projections.md", "image": "obr-november-2025-projections/cover.webp", "hideHeaderImage": false }, { "title": "Impact of the Autumn Budget fuel duty freeze", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the fuel duty freeze costs \u00a33.5 billion in 2026-27 and reduces income inequality by 0.21% as measured by the Gini index.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the fuel duty freeze costs £3.5 billion in 2026-27 and reduces income inequality by 0.21% as measured by the Gini index.", "date": "2025-11-29 10:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "fuel-duty-freeze.md", "image": "uk-fuel-duty-freeze/uk-fuel-duty-freeze.webp", "imageCredit": "which.co.uk", @@ -252,10 +450,16 @@ }, { "title": "Impact of the Autumn Budget rail fares freeze", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the rail fares freeze reduces revenue by \u00a3145 million in 2026-27.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the rail fares freeze reduces revenue by £145 million in 2026-27.", "date": "2025-11-27 10:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "policy"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "rail-fares-freeze-2025.md", "image": "rail-fares-freeze-2025/rail-fares-freeze-2025.webp", "imageCredit": "railsmartr", @@ -263,20 +467,36 @@ }, { "title": "High value council tax surcharge: constituency-level impact", - "description": "The top 10 constituencies account for 35% of the \u00a3400 million annual revenue from the new surcharge on properties over \u00a32 million.", + "description": "The top 10 constituencies account for 35% of the £400 million annual revenue from the new surcharge on properties over £2 million.", "date": "2025-11-26 12:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "tax", + "autumn-budget", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "high-value-council-tax-surcharge.md", "image": "high-value-council-tax-surcharge/cover.webp", "hideHeaderImage": false }, { "title": "Estimating the constituency distribution of a mansion tax", - "description": "Three central London constituencies account for a fifth of property sales above \u00a32 million.", + "description": "Three central London constituencies account for a fifth of property sales above £2 million.", "date": "2025-11-25 12:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "tax", "autumn-budget", "featured"], - "authors": ["daphne-hansell"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "tax", + "autumn-budget", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "daphne-hansell" + ], "filename": "uk-mansion-tax-autumn-budget.md", "image": "uk-mansion-tax.webp", "imageCredit": "City AM", @@ -286,45 +506,73 @@ "title": "Analysing alternative income tax and National Insurance reform options for the UK", "description": "PolicyEngine analysis of alternative tax reform options: raising basic and higher income tax rates, cutting NI, and extending the threshold freeze.", "date": "2025-11-20 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "filename": "uk-income-tax-ni-reforms-2025.md", "image": "uk-income-tax-ni-reforms-2025.webp", - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"] + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ] }, { "title": "PolicyEngine London event 2025", "description": "PolicyEngine hosted an event in London that presented new updates and capabilities, real-world policy research applications, local area modelling, and how to use AI in policy research.", "date": "2025-11-10", - "tags": ["uk", "event", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "event", + "featured" + ], "filename": "policyengine-2-event-report.md", "image": "policyengine-2-event-report.webp", - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"] + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ] }, { "title": "Marginal tax rates in California's proposed billionaire tax", "description": "The 5% tax creates marginal tax rates between 50% and 60% on wealth between $1 billion and $1.1 billion.", "date": "2025-10-25", - "tags": ["us"], + "tags": [ + "us" + ], "filename": "california-billionaire-tax-marginal-rates.md", "image": "california-billionaire-tax-marginal-rates.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Comparing PolicyEngine and official UK poverty rates", "description": "We compare PolicyEngine poverty estimates with official DWP statistics and explain the methodological factors behind the differences.", "date": "2025-10-10 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-poverty-analysis.md", "image": "uk-poverty-analysis.webp", "imageCredit": "birminghammail" }, { "title": "How removing the two-child benefit limit would affect the UK", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates removing the two-child limit would cost \u00a32.9 billion in 2026-27 and reduce child poverty by 13.5%.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates removing the two-child limit would cost £2.9 billion in 2026-27 and reduce child poverty by 13.5%.", "date": "2025-12-01 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-two-child-limit.md", "image": "uk-reeves-two-child.webp", "imageCredit": "which.co.uk" @@ -333,8 +581,15 @@ "title": "How we used Claude Code to choose our DC office", "description": "We used Claude Code to build an interactive comparison tool for choosing our DC office. The winner: Open Gov Hub. Join us Oct 22 to celebrate!", "date": "2025-10-05", - "tags": ["us", "org", "ai"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "daphne-hansell"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "ai" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "daphne-hansell" + ], "filename": "dc-office-ai-coding.md", "image": "dc-office-ai-coding.webp" }, @@ -342,17 +597,31 @@ "title": "Introducing ACA-Calc: Calculate your household's premium tax credits", "description": "New interactive calculator shows how Affordable Care Act subsidies affect households under current enhanced schedule and original schedule.", "date": "2025-09-30", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "healthcare", "interactives"], - "authors": ["daphne-hansell"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "healthcare", + "interactives" + ], + "authors": [ + "daphne-hansell" + ], "filename": "introducing-aca-calc.md", "image": "biden-arpa.webp" }, { "title": "How carbon tax and dividend policies affect UK households", - "description": "PolicyEngine analysis of \u00a3100/200 per tonne carbon taxes with full dividend redistribution shows approximately 71% of UK residents would gain.", + "description": "PolicyEngine analysis of £100/200 per tonne carbon taxes with full dividend redistribution shows approximately 71% of UK residents would gain.", "date": "2025-09-30 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-carbon-tax-dividend.md", "image": "uk-carbon-tax.webp", "imageCredit": "UK Trade and Business Commission" @@ -361,8 +630,15 @@ "title": "Enhanced Premium Tax Credits: Analyzing Household Impacts of an Extension Beyond 2025", "description": "PolicyEngine analyzes extending the enhanced premium tax credits enacted through the American Rescue Plan Act beyond their 2025 expiration.", "date": "2025-09-30", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "healthcare"], - "authors": ["daphne-hansell"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "healthcare" + ], + "authors": [ + "daphne-hansell" + ], "filename": "enhanced-premium-tax-credits-extension.md", "image": "enhanced-premium-tax-credits-extension.webp" }, @@ -370,268 +646,461 @@ "title": "Event: PolicyEngine 2.0 and the Future of Public Policy Analysis", "description": "Join us on the afternoon of November 3rd in London for an exclusive showcase of PolicyEngine's latest innovations in evidence-based policy analysis, featuring live demos and networking.", "date": "2025-09-12", - "tags": ["uk", "org", "featured", "event"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "org", + "featured", + "event" + ], "filename": "sep-2025-london-event.md", "image": "sep-2025-london-event.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "PolicyEngine and NBER sign memorandum of understanding for TAXSIM emulator development", "description": "Partnership ensures continuity of tax microsimulation capabilities for the research community through open-source development.", "date": "2025-09-05", - "tags": ["us", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "policyengine-nber-mou-taxsim.md", "image": "policyengine-nber-mou-taxsim.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "National Science Foundation awards PolicyEngine $300,000 grant", "description": "NSF's Pathways to Enable Open-Source Ecosystems program will support PolicyEngine's work to expand access to policy analysis tools.", "date": "2025-08-18", - "tags": ["us", "uk", "org", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "uk", + "org", + "featured" + ], "filename": "nsf-pose-phase-1-grant.md", "image": "nsf-official-logo.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025", "description": "The bill would cost $141 billion and benefit 80% of American residents.", "date": "2025-08-13", - "tags": ["us", "tariffs", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "tariffs", + "featured" + ], "filename": "american-worker-rebate-act.md", "image": "american-worker-rebate-act.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ] }, { "title": "Enhanced CPS full launch: Comprehensive microdata for policy analysis", "description": "The Enhanced Current Population Survey now includes tip, overtime, and auto loan interest imputations, plus upcoming state and congressional district calibration.", "date": "2025-08-11", - "tags": ["us", "data", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "data", + "featured" + ], "filename": "enhanced-cps-launch.md", "image": "enhanced-cps-launch.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff", "ben-ogorek", "maria-juaristi"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff", + "ben-ogorek", + "maria-juaristi" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of individual income tax provisions in the final reconciliation bill", "description": "Our simulation projects a reduction in federal revenues of $3.8 trillion from 2026 to 2035 compared to current law.", "date": "2025-07-04", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "filename": "final-2025-reconciliation-tax.md", "image": "final-2025-reconciliation-tax.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer", "pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "Introducing the OBBBA Household Explorer", "description": "New interactive tool reveals household-level impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.", "date": "2025-07-03", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "filename": "introducing-obbba-household-explorer.md", "image": "introducing-obbba-household-explorer.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk", "elena-cura"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk", + "elena-cura" + ] }, { "title": "The 2025 American Family Act", "description": "The Child Tax Credit expansion would cost the federal government $2.5 trillion over ten years and lower child poverty by 25%.", "date": "2025-06-16", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "child-tax-credit"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "child-tax-credit" + ], "filename": "american-family-act-2025.md", "image": "american-family-act-2025.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ] }, { "title": "Childcare programmes in PolicyEngine UK", "description": "This report explains how PolicyEngine models childcare programmes in the UK.", "date": "2025-06-06", - "tags": ["uk", "benefit", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "benefit", + "featured" + ], "filename": "uk-childcare-report.md", "image": "uk_childcare_report.webp", - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"] + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ] }, { "title": "Manager's Amendment to H.R.1 - The One Big Beautiful Bill Act", "date": "2025-05-24", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk", "david-trimmer", "max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk", + "david-trimmer", + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "description": "We project that individual provisions in the manager's amendment will cost $22 billion over the budget window.", "filename": "managers-amendment-to-hr1.md", "image": "managers-amendment-to-hr1.webp" }, { - "title": "Montana Reduces Top Income Tax Rate and Expands\u00a0EITC", - "description": "Montana's latest individual income tax changes will lower state revenues by $245 million and raise net income for an estimated 77% of residents in\u00a02027.", + "title": "Montana Reduces Top Income Tax Rate and Expands EITC", + "description": "Montana's latest individual income tax changes will lower state revenues by $245 million and raise net income for an estimated 77% of residents in 2027.", "date": "2025-05-22", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "us-mt"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "us-mt" + ], "filename": "montana-tax-cuts-2026.md", "image": "montana-tax-cuts-2026.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ] }, { - "title": "The SALT Caucus's Proposed\u00a0Cap", - "description": "We project that replacing the SALT cap approved by the Ways and Means Committee with the SALT Caucus proposal would cost $497 billion over the budget\u00a0window.", + "title": "The SALT Caucus's Proposed Cap", + "description": "We project that replacing the SALT cap approved by the Ways and Means Committee with the SALT Caucus proposal would cost $497 billion over the budget window.", "date": "2025-05-15", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "filename": "salt-caucus-62k-cap.md", "image": "salt-caucus-62k-cap.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ] }, { "title": "Ways and Means Committee's SALT Cap", "description": "We project that limiting state and local tax deductions to $30,000, phasing down to $10,000 at high incomes, would raise $937 billion over the budget window.", "date": "2025-05-14", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "filename": "ways-and-means-salt-cap.md", "image": "ways-and-means-salt-cap.webp", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk", "david-trimmer", "max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk", + "david-trimmer", + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Tax changes in effect in April 2025", - "description": "Using PolicyEngine UK, we analyse four tax changes taking effect in April 2025 that will increase taxes by an average of \u00a31,133 per household.", + "description": "Using PolicyEngine UK, we analyse four tax changes taking effect in April 2025 that will increase taxes by an average of £1,133 per household.", "date": "2025-04-25", - "tags": ["uk", "tax", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "tax", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "filename": "impact-of-tax-changes-2025-2026.md", "image": "uk_budget_box_hunt.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Analyzing Energy Policy with PolicyEngine", "description": "We provide an Earth Day recap of our capabilities in the US and UK.", "date": "2025-04-22", - "tags": ["us", "uk", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "uk", + "featured" + ], "filename": "earth-day-2025.md", "image": "earth-day-2025.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "What's the SALTernative?", - "description": "Introducing PolicyEngine\u2019s free SALT\u2011AMT calculator \u2014 an open\u2011source web app to model next year\u2019s SALT\u2011cap sunset, tweak AMT parameters, and see the budget, distributional, and household impacts in seconds.", + "description": "Introducing PolicyEngine’s free SALT‑AMT calculator — an open‑source web app to model next year’s SALT‑cap sunset, tweak AMT parameters, and see the budget, distributional, and household impacts in seconds.", "date": "2025-04-21", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "reconciliation"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "reconciliation" + ], "filename": "introducing-salternative.md", "image": "introducing-salternative.webp", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk", "max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk", + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "MyFriendBen Launches in North Carolina, Using PolicyEngine API", "description": "Our rules engine powers the open-source multi-benefit screener and its expansion beyond Colorado.", "date": "2025-04-05", - "tags": ["us", "us-nc", "featured", "api", "benefit-access"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-nc", + "featured", + "api", + "benefit-access" + ], "filename": "myfriendben-nc.md", "image": "myfriendben-nc.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "New Ways to Give to PolicyEngine", "description": "Exploring state tax credits for charitable giving.", "date": "2025-04-01", - "tags": ["us", "april-fools", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "april-fools", + "featured" + ], "filename": "april-1st-2025.md", "image": "april-1st-2025.webp", - "authors": ["daphne-hansell"] + "authors": [ + "daphne-hansell" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of the Spring 2025 OBR forecast", "description": "PolicyEngine integrates the new OBR forecasts to provide updated predictions on household income, poverty, and inequality.", "date": "2025-03-26", - "tags": ["uk", "impact", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "impact", + "featured" + ], "filename": "obr-forecast-2025.ipynb", "image": "obr-forecast-2025.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "HM Treasury pilots PolicyEngine UK for tax-benefit microsimulation", "description": "The UK government's finance ministry explores PolicyEngine as a potential supplement to existing models.", "date": "2025-03-24", - "tags": ["uk", "impact", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "impact", + "featured" + ], "filename": "hmt-policyengine-pilot.md", "image": "analysis-of-the-spring-budget-2023.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Extending the Income Tax threshold freeze to 2030", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates extending the personal allowance and higher rate threshold freeze would raise \u00a312.2 billion over two years.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates extending the personal allowance and higher rate threshold freeze would raise £12.2 billion over two years.", "date": "2025-03-25", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "filename": "income-tax-freeze.md", "image": "uk_budget_box_hunt.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "PolicyEngine's 2022 year in review", "description": "A year of launches, analysis, and building for the future.", "date": "2022-12-30", - "tags": ["global", "impact"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "impact" + ], "filename": "policyengine-2022-year-in-review.md", "image": "policyengine-2022-year-in-review.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "How machine learning tools make PolicyEngine more accurate", "description": "Today, we're launching new survey weights that cut deviations from administrative statistics by 97%.", "date": "2022-03-07", - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "filename": "how-machine-learning-tools-make-policyengine-more-accurate.md", "image": "how-machine-learning-tools-make-policyengine-more-accurate.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Enhancing the Current Population Survey for policy analysis", "description": "We've used modern data science techniques to make PolicyEngine the UK's most accurate microsimulation model. In 2023, we'll do the same in the US.", "date": "2022-12-28", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "filename": "enhancing-the-current-population-survey-for-policy-analysis.md", "image": "enhancing-the-current-population-survey-for-policy-analysis.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "How charitable contributions affect Americans' taxes", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the tax impact of your donations for free.", "date": "2022-11-29", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "filename": "charitable-contributions.md", "image": "charitable-contributions.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Maryland's standard deduction", "description": "PolicyEngine computes the program's impact on Maryland and individual households.", "date": "2022-11-22", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "filename": "maryland-standard-deduction.md", "image": "maryland-standard-deduction.webp", - "authors": ["kevin-foster"] + "authors": [ + "kevin-foster" + ] }, { "title": "From OpenFisca to PolicyEngine", "description": "OpenFisca has catapulted our progress, and now we've forked it into our own microsimulation framework.", "date": "2022-11-10", - "tags": ["global", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "technical" + ], "filename": "from-openfisca-to-policyengine.md", "image": "from-openfisca-to-policyengine.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Oregon's Nonrefundable Exemption Credit", "description": "PolicyEngine computes the program's impact on Oregon and individual households.", "date": "2022-11-04", - "tags": ["us", "us-or", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-or", + "policy" + ], "filename": "oregons-nonrefundable-exemption-credit.md", "image": "oregons-nonrefundable-exemption-credit.webp", - "authors": ["kevin-foster"] + "authors": [ + "kevin-foster" + ] }, { "title": "Stamp duties in PolicyEngine UK", "date": "2022-09-22", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], - "description": "The Times reported yesterday that Prime Minister Liz Truss will announce plans to cut Stamp Duty this week. PolicyEngine now supports\u2026", + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], + "description": "The Times reported yesterday that Prime Minister Liz Truss will announce plans to cut Stamp Duty this week. PolicyEngine now supports…", "filename": "stamp-duties-in-policyengine-uk.md", "image": "stamp-duties-in-policyengine-uk.webp" }, { - "title": "Prime Minister Liz Truss\u2019s energy bill price cap", + "title": "Prime Minister Liz Truss’s energy bill price cap", "date": "2022-09-16", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See the impact in PolicyEngine.", "filename": "prime-minister-liz-trusss-energy-bill-price-cap.md", "image": "prime-minister-liz-trusss-energy-bill-price-cap.webp" @@ -639,8 +1108,13 @@ { "title": "Raising the marriage allowance from 10% to 100%", "date": "2022-08-29", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See the reform in PolicyEngine.", "filename": "raising-the-marriage-allowance-from-10-to-100.md", "image": "raising-the-marriage-allowance-from-10-to-100.webp" @@ -648,8 +1122,14 @@ { "title": "PolicyEngine launches in Washington state", "date": "2022-08-10", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "technical", "us-wa"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical", + "us-wa" + ], "description": "Washingtonians can now compute the impacts of the Working Families Tax Credit and federal reforms.", "filename": "policyengine-launches-in-washington-state.md", "image": "policyengine-launches-in-washington-state.webp" @@ -657,17 +1137,27 @@ { "title": "Electric vehicle tax credits under current law and the Inflation Reduction Act", "date": "2022-08-05", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "description": "Use PolicyEngine US to analyze provisions of the potential reconciliation bill.", "filename": "electric-vehicle-tax-credits-under-current-law-and-the-inflation-reduction-act.md", "image": "electric-vehicle-tax-credits-under-current-law-and-the-inflation-reduction-act.webp" }, { - "title": "Rishi Sunak\u2019s proposal to cut the basic rate to 16 percent", + "title": "Rishi Sunak’s proposal to cut the basic rate to 16 percent", "date": "2022-08-01", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See the interactive simulation on PolicyEngine", "filename": "rishi-sunaks-proposal-to-cut-the-basic-rate-to-16-percent.md", "image": "rishi-sunaks-proposal-to-cut-the-basic-rate-to-16-percent.webp" @@ -675,26 +1165,41 @@ { "title": "The new PolicyEngine US Population Impact page", "date": "2022-07-01", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "description": "You design the policy. We compute the poverty, inequality, and budgetary impacts.", "filename": "the-new-policyengine-us-population-impact-page.md", "image": "the-new-policyengine-us-population-impact-page.webp" }, { - "title": "PolicyEngine at the BIG Conference and the Beeck Center\u2019s Rules as Code Demo Day", + "title": "PolicyEngine at the BIG Conference and the Beeck Center’s Rules as Code Demo Day", "date": "2022-06-09", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "impact"], - "description": "Register for the BIG Conference June 23\u201325 and the Rules as Code Demo Day June 28", + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "impact" + ], + "description": "Register for the BIG Conference June 23–25 and the Rules as Code Demo Day June 28", "filename": "policyengine-at-the-basic-income-guarantee-conference-and-the-beeck-centers-rules-as-code-demo-day.md", "image": "policyengine-at-the-basic-income-guarantee-conference-and-the-beeck-centers-rules-as-code-demo-day.webp" }, { - "title": "Impact of the Chancellor\u2019s Cost of Living Support package", + "title": "Impact of the Chancellor’s Cost of Living Support package", "date": "2022-05-26", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See the analysis in PolicyEngine UK", "filename": "impact-of-the-chancellors-cost-of-living-support-package.md", "image": "impact-of-the-chancellors-cost-of-living-support-package.webp" @@ -702,8 +1207,13 @@ { "title": "How developers can explore the PolicyEngine API", "date": "2022-04-29", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["global", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "global", + "technical" + ], "description": "The UK API explorer and US API explorer describe variables and policy parameters in our models.", "filename": "how-developers-can-explore-the-policyengine-api.md", "image": "how-developers-can-explore-the-policyengine-api.webp" @@ -711,8 +1221,13 @@ { "title": "Make Everyone a Policymaker", "date": "2021-10-15", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["global", "impact"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "global", + "impact" + ], "description": "Today we're (re)launching PolicyEngine to give the public unprecedented insight into the tax and benefit system.", "filename": "make-everyone-a-policymaker.md", "image": "make-everyone-a-policymaker.webp" @@ -720,8 +1235,13 @@ { "title": "Analysing Autumn Budget Universal Credit reforms with PolicyEngine", "date": "2021-10-30", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See how the reform affects the UK population or your household.", "filename": "analysing-autumn-budget-universal-credit-reforms-with-policyengine.md", "image": "analysing-autumn-budget-universal-credit-reforms-with-policyengine.webp" @@ -729,8 +1249,13 @@ { "title": "Income Tax cuts Rishi Sunak is reportedly considering", "date": "2021-12-04", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "Explore the basic rate and additional rate cuts in PolicyEngine.", "filename": "income-tax-cuts-rishi-sunak-is-reportedly-considering.md", "image": "income-tax-cuts-rishi-sunak-is-reportedly-considering.webp" @@ -738,8 +1263,13 @@ { "title": "PolicyEngine's 2021 year in review", "date": "2021-12-29", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["global", "impact"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "global", + "impact" + ], "description": "PolicyEngine's inaugural year was a substantial one for public policy.", "filename": "policyengines-2021-year-in-review.md", "image": "policyengines-2021-year-in-review.webp" @@ -747,8 +1277,13 @@ { "title": "The Green Party Manifesto at PolicyFest", "date": "2022-01-26", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "Explore the Green Party Manifesto on PolicyEngine.", "filename": "the-green-party-manifesto-at-policyfest.md", "image": "the-green-party-manifesto-at-policyfest.webp" @@ -756,8 +1291,13 @@ { "title": "PolicyEngine arrives stateside", "date": "2022-03-31", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "impact"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "impact" + ], "description": "Today, we're beta-launching PolicyEngine US and several other new features.", "filename": "policyengine-comes-stateside.md", "image": "policyengine-comes-stateside.webp" @@ -765,8 +1305,13 @@ { "title": "How PolicyEngine estimates the effects of UK carbon taxes", "date": "2022-04-23", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "description": "By fusing datasets with machine learning, we empower anyone to integrate custom carbon taxes with other tax and benefit reforms.", "filename": "how-policyengine-estimates-the-effects-of-uk-carbon-taxes.md", "image": "how-policyengine-estimates-the-effects-of-uk-carbon-taxes.webp" @@ -774,8 +1319,13 @@ { "title": "Tax cuts in Prime Minister Truss's Growth Plan 2022", "date": "2022-09-23", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "description": "See the impact on the population and on your household in PolicyEngine UK.", "filename": "tax-cuts-in-prime-minister-trusss-growth-plan.md", "image": "tax-cuts-in-prime-minister-trusss-growth-plan.webp" @@ -783,8 +1333,13 @@ { "title": "How to simulate basic and guaranteed income policies in PolicyEngine US", "date": "2022-09-27", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "description": "From universal basic income to age-dependent means-tested payments, we've got you covered.", "filename": "how-to-simulate-basic-and-guaranteed-income-policies-in-policyengine-us.md", "image": "how-to-simulate-basic-and-guaranteed-income-policies-in-policyengine-us.webp" @@ -792,17 +1347,27 @@ { "title": "PolicyEngine launches in New York state", "date": "2022-10-21", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "policy"], - "description": "New Yorkers can now estimate their state income taxes alongside federal taxes and benefits \u2014 and change the rules, too.", + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], + "description": "New Yorkers can now estimate their state income taxes alongside federal taxes and benefits — and change the rules, too.", "filename": "policyengine-launches-in-new-york-state.md", "image": "policyengine-launches-in-new-york-state.webp" }, { "title": "Computing your Oregon Earned Income Tax Credit in PolicyEngine", "date": "2022-10-24", - "authors": ["kevin-foster"], - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "kevin-foster" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "description": "We walk you through it step by step.", "filename": "computing-your-oregon-earned-income-tax-credit.md", "image": "computing-your-oregon-earned-income-tax-credit.webp" @@ -810,17 +1375,27 @@ { "title": "Estimating your Supplemental Security Income benefits in PolicyEngine", "date": "2022-10-28", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "policy"], - "description": "Enter your household information, and our free web app will estimate your SSI \u2014 plus other taxes and benefits.", + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], + "description": "Enter your household information, and our free web app will estimate your SSI — plus other taxes and benefits.", "filename": "estimating-your-supplemental-security-income-benefits-in-policyengine.md", "image": "estimating-your-supplemental-security-income-benefits-in-policyengine.webp" }, { "title": "Updating PolicyEngine to reflect SNAP reform in the omnibus bill", "date": "2022-12-23", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "description": "A step-by-step guide to syncing our code with the latest legislation.", "filename": "updating-policyengine-to-reflect-snap-reform-in-the-omnibus-bill.md", "image": "updating-policyengine-to-reflect-snap-reform-in-the-omnibus-bill.webp" @@ -828,8 +1403,13 @@ { "title": "From idea to impact: scoring a policy reform on the new PolicyEngine UK", "date": "2023-01-12", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "description": "A walkthrough of the new app on a UK tax-benefit reform.", "filename": "from-idea-to-impact-scoring-a-policy-reform-on-the-new-policyengine-uk.md", "image": "from-idea-to-impact-scoring-a-policy-reform-on-the-new-policyengine-uk.webp" @@ -837,8 +1417,13 @@ { "title": "From idea to impact: scoring a policy reform on the new PolicyEngine US", "date": "2023-01-12", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "description": "A walkthrough of the new app on a US tax-benefit reform.", "filename": "from-idea-to-impact-scoring-a-policy-reform-on-the-new-policyengine-us.md", "image": "from-idea-to-impact-scoring-a-policy-reform-on-the-new-policyengine-us.webp" @@ -846,8 +1431,13 @@ { "title": "The New PolicyEngine", "date": "2023-01-12 00:00:01", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "impact"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "impact" + ], "description": "We're exiting beta with the most accessible tax and benefit model ever built.", "filename": "us-the-new-policyengine.md", "image": "us-the-new-policyengine.webp" @@ -855,8 +1445,13 @@ { "title": "The New PolicyEngine", "date": "2023-01-12 00:00:01", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "impact"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "impact" + ], "description": "We're taking economic policy to the next level with the most accessible tax and benefit model ever built.", "filename": "uk-the-new-policyengine.md", "image": "uk-the-new-policyengine.webp" @@ -864,8 +1459,14 @@ { "title": "How would reforms affect cliffs?", "date": "2023-02-02 21:00:00", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "description": "We've added a new feature to the US version of PolicyEngine that lets you see how your reforms affect cliffs.", "filename": "how-would-reforms-affect-cliffs.md", "image": "how-would-reforms-affect-cliffs.webp" @@ -874,341 +1475,562 @@ "title": "Reform UK's Emergency Recovery Plan", "description": "See the UK party's proposed deficit-funded tax cuts in PolicyEngine", "date": "2023-02-09 11:15:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "filename": "reform-uks-emergency-recovery-plan.md", "image": "reform-uks-emergency-recovery-plan.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "The Child Tax Credit in 2023", "description": "We review how the program works and compute its impact with PolicyEngine US.", "date": "2023-02-09 00:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "filename": "the-child-tax-credit-in-2023.md", "image": "the-child-tax-credit-in-2023.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Restoration of the American Rescue Plan Act's expanded Child Tax Credit", "description": "PolicyEngine computes how the 2021 policy would affect Americans and America in 2023.", "date": "2023-02-10 00:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "filename": "restoration-of-the-american-rescue-plan-acts-expanded-child-tax-credit.md", "image": "restoration-of-the-american-rescue-plan-acts-expanded-child-tax-credit.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "OpenFisca wins Edge of Government's Innovation Award", "description": "The success of Rules as Code and its impact on citizens.", "date": "2023-02-15 00:00:00", - "tags": ["global", "impact"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "impact" + ], "filename": "openfisca-wins-edge-of-government-innovation-award.md", "image": "openfisca-wins-edge-of-government-innovation-award.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey's FY 2024 Budget Recommendation", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the distributional impact of two provisions and the household impact of four provisions.", "date": "2023-03-03 00:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ma", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ma", + "policy" + ], "filename": "massachusetts-governor-maura-healeys-fy-2024-budget-recommendation.md", "image": "massachusetts-governor-maura-healeys-fy-2024-budget-recommendation.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nicholas-rodelo"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nicholas-rodelo" + ] }, { "title": "The UK's extended Energy Price Guarantee", "description": "Analysis by PolicyEngine on the expected effects on income, poverty, and inequality.", "date": "2023-03-05 07:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "filename": "projected-impact-of-the-uks-extended-energy-price-guarantee.md", "image": "projected-impact-of-the-uks-extended-energy-price-guarantee.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Breaking down poverty impacts by sex", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of customizable policy reforms on poverty \u2014 overall, by age, and now by sex.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of customizable policy reforms on poverty — overall, by age, and now by sex.", "date": "2023-03-08 07:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "filename": "breaking-down-us-poverty-impacts-by-sex.md", "image": "breaking-down-poverty-impacts-by-sex.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Breaking down poverty impacts by sex", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of customisable policy reforms on poverty \u2014 overall, by age, and now by sex.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of customisable policy reforms on poverty — overall, by age, and now by sex.", "date": "2023-03-08 07:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "filename": "breaking-down-uk-poverty-impacts-by-sex.md", "image": "breaking-down-poverty-impacts-by-sex.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of the Spring Budget 2023", "description": "PolicyEngine analysis estimates the impact of the EPG extension and the fuel duty freeze.", "date": "2023-03-15 18:10:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "filename": "analysis-of-the-spring-budget-2023.md", "image": "analysis-of-the-spring-budget-2023.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Automate policy analysis with PolicyEngine's new ChatGPT integration", "description": "Score an economic impact in a few clicks. Write a report in one more.", "date": "2023-03-17 11:00:00", - "tags": ["global", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "technical" + ], "filename": "automate-policy-analysis-with-policy-engines-new-chatgpt-integration.md", "image": "automate-policy-analysis-with-policy-engines-new-chatgpt-integration.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "chat-gpt"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "chat-gpt" + ] }, { "title": "How much should James Medlock donate to GiveDirectly?", "description": "We built a mini-app with the policyengine-us Python package to crunch the implications of a Twitter bet.", "date": "2023-03-23 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "filename": "medlock-donation-calculator.md", "image": "medlock-donation-calculator.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "FiscalSim and PolicyEngine: Emphasizing collaboration and open-source acknowledgment", "description": "The Center for Growth and Opportunity launches FiscalSim, a US policy-computing web app drawing heavily from PolicyEngine's work.", "date": "2023-03-24 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "filename": "fiscalsim.md", "image": "fiscalsim.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Restoring the American Rescue Plan's Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion", "description": "We review how the expansion works and model its impact with PolicyEngine US.", "date": "2023-03-27 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy" + ], "filename": "restoring-arpa-eitc.md", "image": "eitc.webp", - "authors": ["arthur-wright"] + "authors": [ + "arthur-wright" + ] }, { "title": "Breaking down policy impacts by wealth decile", "description": "Income isn't everything.", "date": "2023-03-28 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "filename": "breaking-down-policy-impacts-by-wealth-decile.md", "image": "breaking-down-policy-impacts-by-wealth-decile.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "The District Child Tax Credit proposal", "description": "Analysis of DC Councilmember Zachary Parker's new legislation.", "date": "2023-04-02 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-dc", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-dc", + "policy" + ], "filename": "district-child-tax-credit.md", "image": "district-child-tax-credit.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Announcing the addition of Kansas income tax to PolicyEngine", "description": "We've expanded our tax calculator and customizable reform simulator to the Sunflower State.", "date": "2023-04-03 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ks", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ks", + "policy" + ], "filename": "kansas-income-tax.md", "image": "kansas-income-tax.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Revolutionizing policy analysis with AI", "description": "Discover PolicyEngine's new GPT-4 integration and audience modes.", "date": "2023-04-03 16:00:00", - "tags": ["global", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "technical" + ], "filename": "gpt-analysis.md", "image": "ai-analysis.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "chat-gpt"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "chat-gpt" + ] }, { "title": "Introducing California income tax analysis on PolicyEngine", "description": "Expanding our tax calculator and reform simulator capabilities to the most populous state.", "date": "2023-04-07 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ca", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ca", + "policy" + ], "filename": "california-income-tax.md", "image": "california-income-tax.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "PolicyEngine adds New York Family Assistance (TANF) to US model", "description": "Enhancing analysis of public policy impacts on needy families.", "date": "2023-04-08 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ny", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ny", + "policy" + ], "filename": "new-york-tanf.md", "image": "new-york-tanf.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "donglai-xu", "lin-tao"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "donglai-xu", + "lin-tao" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of the DC Financial Support for Families with Children Amendment Act", "description": "Evaluating Councilmember Zachary Parker's second Child Tax Credit proposal of 2023.", "date": "2023-04-16 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-dc", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-dc", + "policy" + ], "filename": "dc-financial-support-for-families-with-children.md", "image": "dc-financial-support-for-families-with-children.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Introducing Utah State Income Tax Analysis on PolicyEngine", "description": "Expanding our tax calculator and reform simulator capabilities to the Beehive State.", "date": "2023-04-17 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ut", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ut", + "policy" + ], "filename": "introducing-utah-state-income-tax-analysis-on-policyengine.md", "image": "introducing-utah-state-income-tax-analysis-on-policyengine.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Building the roots of PolicyEngine Nigeria", "description": "We're expanding PolicyEngine's reach by empowering Nigerians to understand personal income tax policies.", "date": "2023-04-21 09:00:00", - "tags": ["ng", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "ng", + "technical" + ], "filename": "building-the-roots-of-policyengine-nigeria.md", "image": "building-the-roots-of-policyengine-nigeria.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { - "title": "Kansas's Flat Tax Proposal\u200a\u2014\u200aSB169", + "title": "Kansas's Flat Tax Proposal — SB169", "description": "We review how the bill works and model its impact with PolicyEngine US.", "date": "2023-04-23 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "us-ks", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ks", + "policy" + ], "filename": "kansas-flat-income-tax-sb-169.md", "image": "kansas-flat-income-tax-sb-169.webp", - "authors": ["arthur-wright"] + "authors": [ + "arthur-wright" + ] }, { "title": "Digital Public Goods Alliance recognizes PolicyEngine as a Digital Public Good", "description": "The UN-endorsed initiative highlights PolicyEngine's open source approach to supporting the Sustainable Development Goals.", "date": "2023-04-26 09:00:00", - "tags": ["global", "impact"], + "tags": [ + "global", + "impact" + ], "filename": "digital-public-goods-alliance-recognizes-policyengine-as-a-digital-public-good.md", "image": "digital-public-goods-alliance-recognizes-policyengine-as-a-digital-public-good.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "How PolicyEngine shaped the outcome of the $1 million bet James Medlock won today", "description": "Our free tax calculator helped determine Balaji Srinivasan's $500,000 payments to Medlock and GiveDirectly.", "date": "2023-05-02 16:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "filename": "medlock-wins.md", "image": "medlock-wins.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of Guaranteed Income for the 21st Century", "description": "The proposal from the New School and the Economic Security Project would lower poverty and inequality while expanding cliffs.", "date": "2023-06-08 13:45:00", "filename": "analysis-of-guaranteed-income-for-the-21st-century.md", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "policy" + ], "image": "analysis-of-guaranteed-income-for-the-21st-century.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Analysis of the Working Families Tax Cut Act", "description": "How the proposal to increase the standard deduction would affect households and society.", "date": "2023-06-08 20:00:00", "filename": "malliotakis-steel-working-families-tax-cut-act.md", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "policy" + ], "image": "malliotakis-steel-working-families-tax-credit-act.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Unveiling poverty impacts by race and ethnicity", "description": "A new feature from PolicyEngine reveals how customizable tax and benefit reforms affect poverty rates for Black, White, Hispanic, and other Americans.", "date": "2023-06-19 20:00:00", "filename": "poverty-race-ethnicity.md", - "tags": ["us", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical" + ], "image": "poverty-race-ethnicity.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Scott Winship's individualized Earned Income Tax Credit proposal", "description": "An analysis and note on the value of open-source models.", "date": "2023-07-14 08:00:00", "filename": "winship-individualized-eitc.md", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "image": "winship-individualized-eitc.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ] }, { "title": "Dive Into New Mexico's Income Tax Analysis on PolicyEngine", "description": "Expanding our tax calculator and reform simulator capabilities to the Land of Enchantment.", "date": "2023-08-02 16:00:00", "filename": "new-mexico-income-tax-launch.md", - "tags": ["us", "us-nm", "featured", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-nm", + "featured", + "policy" + ], "image": "new-mexico-income-tax-launch.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "Repealing the Universal Credit two-child limit", "description": "How removing the limit of some benefits to two children would affect the UK in 2023.", "date": "2023-08-07 16:00:00", "filename": "repealing_the_two_child_limit.md", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "image": "two_child_limit.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "New King's College London research uses PolicyEngine", - "description": "A \u2018Citizens' Economic Council' explores PolicyEngine-scored tax-benefit impacts.", + "description": "A ‘Citizens' Economic Council' explores PolicyEngine-scored tax-benefit impacts.", "date": "2023-11-04 09:00:00", "filename": "citizens-economic-council.md", - "tags": ["uk", "impact"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "impact" + ], "image": "citizens-economic-council.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Autumn Statement 2023 tax-benefit reforms", "description": "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt just announced National Insurance cuts and benefit uprating. We've evaluated these reforms.", "date": "2023-11-22 17:25", "filename": "autumn-statement-2023.md", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "image": "jeremy-hunt.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Autumn 2023 model calibration update", "description": "Evaluating PolicyEngine's model performance with the latest official statistics.", "date": "2023-12-04 09:00:00", "filename": "uk-calibration-2023-q4.ipynb", - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], "image": "uk-calibration-dec-2023-update.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Preliminary analysis of the Wyden-Smith Child Tax Credit expansion", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of the reported compromise to expand the Child Tax Credit's refundable component.", "date": "2024-01-11 12:00:00", "filename": "wyden-smith-ctc.md", - "tags": ["us", "impact", "featured", "child-tax-credit"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "impact", + "featured", + "child-tax-credit" + ], "image": "wyden.webp", - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "Spring Budget 2024 proposals", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates reported likely tax-benefit reforms ahead of the UK Spring Budget.", "date": "2024-03-04 09:00:00", "filename": "spring-budget-2024.ipynb", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "image": "jeremy-hunt-with-budget-box.webp", - "authors": ["anthony-volk", "nikhil-woodruff"] + "authors": [ + "anthony-volk", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ] }, { "title": "Spring Budget 2024", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of the UK Spring Budget.", "date": "2024-03-06 09:00:00", "filename": "uk-2024-spring-budget.ipynb", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "image": "uk_budget_box_hunt.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "anthony-volk"] + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "anthony-volk" + ] }, { "title": "Beta-launch: PolicyEngine's enhanced microdata for policy analysis", "description": "By integrating and calibrating multiple datasets, PolicyEngine makes world-class tax-benefit microsimulation modeling available to anyone.", "date": "2024-03-25 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "technical", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "technical", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "enhanced-cps-beta.md", "image": "enhanced-cps-beta.webp" }, @@ -1216,8 +2038,14 @@ "title": "Child Tax Credit Provisions of the Tax Relief for American Workers and Families Act", "description": "How the Wyden-Smith bipartisan tax package would affect families through 2025.", "date": "2024-03-25 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "trafwa-ctc.md", "image": "trafwa-ctc.webp" }, @@ -1225,8 +2053,15 @@ "title": "Individual income tax provisions of President Biden's 2025 Budget", "description": "PolicyEngine projects the impact of expanding tax credits and raising taxes on high-income filers.", "date": "2024-03-27 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "biden-budget-2025.md", "image": "biden-budget-2025.webp" }, @@ -1234,8 +2069,14 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine launches state income tax modeling nationwide", "description": "Free, open-source platform now covers all 50 states and D.C., just in time for tax season.", "date": "2024-04-15 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "state-tax-model-beta.md", "image": "state-tax-model-beta.webp" }, @@ -1243,17 +2084,27 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine's Spring 2024 update", "description": "How PolicyEngine compares to the latest external forecasts.", "date": "2024-04-16 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], "image": "uk_march_update.webp", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "obr-forecast-update-spring-24.ipynb" }, { "title": "The Triple Lock Plus", "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of the UK government's proposed pension uprating policy reform.", "date": "2024-05-28 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "uk-triple-lock-plus.ipynb", "image": "uk-triple-lock-plus.webp" }, @@ -1261,8 +2112,13 @@ "title": "The Liberal Democrat Manifesto", "description": "PolicyEngine's comprehensive impact score.", "date": "2024-06-11 16:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "lib-dem-2024-manifesto.md", "image": "lib-dem-manifesto-2024.webp" }, @@ -1270,8 +2126,15 @@ "title": "The Conservative Manifesto", "description": "PolicyEngine's comprehensive impact score.", "date": "2024-06-12 16:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "pavel-makarchuk", "anthony-volk"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "pavel-makarchuk", + "anthony-volk" + ], "filename": "conservative-2024-manifesto.md", "image": "conservative-2024-manifesto.webp" }, @@ -1279,8 +2142,14 @@ "title": "The Labour Party Manifesto", "description": "PolicyEngine's comprehensive impact score.", "date": "2024-06-29 14:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "anthony-volk"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "anthony-volk" + ], "filename": "labour-2024-manifesto.md", "image": "labour-2024-manifesto.webp" }, @@ -1288,8 +2157,15 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine Powers Niskanen Center's Analysis", "description": "Three new reports from the Niskanen Center think tank demonstrate PolicyEngine's tax and benefit reform model.", "date": "2024-07-12 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "ben-gross"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "ben-gross" + ], "filename": "niskanen-center-analysis.md", "image": "niskanen-center-analysis.webp" }, @@ -1297,17 +2173,33 @@ "title": "Kamala Harris's LIFT Act Middle Class Tax Credit", "description": "A comprehensive analysis of the Vice President's 2018 proposal.", "date": "2024-07-22 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "2024-election"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "2024-election" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "lift-act.md", "image": "lift-act.webp" }, { - "title": "Analysis of JD Vance\u2019s Suggested $5,000 Child Tax Credit Expansion", - "description": "Impacts of the vice presidential nominee\u2019s reform depend largely on its uncertain refundability.", + "title": "Analysis of JD Vance’s Suggested $5,000 Child Tax Credit Expansion", + "description": "Impacts of the vice presidential nominee’s reform depend largely on its uncertain refundability.", "date": "2024-08-11 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "2024-election"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "2024-election" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "vance-ctc.md", "image": "vance-ctc.webp" }, @@ -1315,8 +2207,15 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine at the 117th Annual Conference on Taxation", "description": "Exploring AI applications and enhanced data for tax policy analysis.", "date": "2024-08-13 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "conferences"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "conferences" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "nta-2024.md", "image": "nta-2024.webp" }, @@ -1324,17 +2223,30 @@ "title": "Validation against the Survey of Personal Incomes", "description": "Evaluating PolicyEngine's model performance against the UK SPI.", "date": "2024-08-14 01:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "technical"], - "authors": ["anthony-volk"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "technical" + ], + "authors": [ + "anthony-volk" + ], "filename": "uk-spi-validation.ipynb", "image": "uk-spi-validation.webp" }, { - "title": "Kamala Harris\u2019s Child Tax Credit Proposal", - "description": "We analyze the Democratic nominee\u2019s proposal to expand the 2021 expansion, giving $6,000 to parents of newborns.", + "title": "Kamala Harris’s Child Tax Credit Proposal", + "description": "We analyze the Democratic nominee’s proposal to expand the 2021 expansion, giving $6,000 to parents of newborns.", "date": "2024-08-17 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "harris-ctc.md", "image": "harris-ctc.webp" }, @@ -1342,8 +2254,16 @@ "title": "Individual Income Tax Provisions in Minnesota Bill HF1938 (2023)", "description": "The reform signed by Governor Tim Walz expanded credits for low-income families, reduced taxes for middle-income retirees, and raised taxes for high-income filers.", "date": "2024-08-21 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "featured", "minnesota"], - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "featured", + "minnesota" + ], + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "mn-hf1938-walz.md", "image": "mn-hf1938-walz.webp" }, @@ -1351,8 +2271,15 @@ "title": "How the Rent Relief Act of 2019 Varies with Income and Location", "description": "We show the impact on different households of the tax credit bill introduced by then-Senator Kamala Harris.", "date": "2024-08-22 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "rent-relief-act.md", "image": "rent-relief-act.webp" }, @@ -1360,35 +2287,65 @@ "title": "How the Oregon Rebate May Affect Poverty Rates", "description": "Our model finds the ballot measure could reduce poverty by between 22% and 35%, without macroeconomic effects.", "date": "2024-09-29 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "us-or"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "us-or" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "oregon-rebate.md", "image": "oregon-rebate.webp" }, { "title": "Exempting Social Security Benefits from Income Taxation", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects that former President Donald Trump\u2019s proposal would cost $1.4 trillion over the budget window.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects that former President Donald Trump’s proposal would cost $1.4 trillion over the budget window.", "date": "2024-10-07 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "social-security-tax-exemption.md", "image": "social-security-tax-exemption.webp" }, { "title": "Labour's reforms to VAT tax on private schools", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's private school tax plan would raise \u00a37.7 billion over five years, mainly affecting wealthier households.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's private school tax plan would raise £7.7 billion over five years, mainly affecting wealthier households.", "date": "2024-10-17 01:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "tax", "policy", "vat"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "tax", + "policy", + "vat" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "school-vat.md", "image": "classroom-2093744.webp" }, { "title": "Levying VAT on private school fees in the Autumn Budget", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to private school VAT would raise \u00a31.5 billion in 2025.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to private school VAT would raise £1.5 billion in 2025.", "date": "2024-10-31 15:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "tax", "policy", "vat", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "tax", + "policy", + "vat", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "vat-school-comparison.md", "image": "vat-school-comparison-post.webp" }, @@ -1396,99 +2353,175 @@ "title": "How PolicyEngine UK models behavioural responses", "description": "PolicyEngine has enhanced its modelling with behavioural responses, including income, substitution and capital gains elasticities.", "date": "2024-11-12 15:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "behavioral-responses", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "behavioral-responses", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "behavioural-responses.md", "image": "behavioural-responses.webp" }, { "title": "Benefits uprating 2025/26", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's 1.7% benefits uprating would cost \u00a32.5 billion, mainly benefiting lower-income households.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects Labour's 1.7% benefits uprating would cost £2.5 billion, mainly benefiting lower-income households.", "date": "2024-10-31 15:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "benefit", "inflation"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "benefit", + "inflation" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "Benefit-uprating-25.md", "image": "benefit-uprating-post-pic.webp", "imageCredit": "gov.uk" }, { "title": "Capital Gains Tax reforms in the Autumn Budget 2024", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the UK's 2024 Capital Gains Tax reforms will raise \u00a36.4 billion between 2025-2029.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that the UK's 2024 Capital Gains Tax reforms will raise £6.4 billion between 2025-2029.", "date": "2024-11-06 15:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "tax", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "tax", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "cgt-autumn-budget.md", "image": "cgt-autumn-budget.webp" }, { - "title": "Kamala Harris\u2019s Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion Proposal", + "title": "Kamala Harris’s Earned Income Tax Credit Expansion Proposal", "description": "PolicyEngine projects that restoring the American Rescue Plan policy would cost $144 billion (static) or $201 billion (dynamic) over a decade, while lowering poverty by 1.6% in 2025.", "date": "2024-10-24 01:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "harris-eitc.md", "image": "harris-eitc.webp" }, { "title": "Autumn Budget policy choices", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that four reported tax reforms would raise \u00a323 billion per year", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates that four reported tax reforms would raise £23 billion per year", "date": "2024-10-24 16:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "featured", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "featured", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "autumn-budget-2024-policy-choices.ipynb", "image": "autumn-budget-policy-choices.webp" }, { "title": "Levying employer National Insurance on pension contributions", - "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the now-scrapped Autumn Budget reform would have raised between \u00a310 and \u00a318 billion per year, depending on how employers pass it on to wages.", + "description": "PolicyEngine estimates the now-scrapped Autumn Budget reform would have raised between £10 and £18 billion per year, depending on how employers pass it on to wages.", "date": "2024-10-26 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "policy"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "policy" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "autumn-budget-2024-employer-nic-pension-contributions.md", "image": "autumn-budget-2024-employer-nic-pension-contributions.webp" }, { "title": "Extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act", "date": "2024-10-28 00:00:01", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], - "tags": ["us", "2024-election", "featured"], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "2024-election", + "featured" + ], "description": "PolicyEngine projects extending the TCJA individual tax provisions would cost $3.9 trillion over a ten-year budget window.", "filename": "tcja-extension.md", "image": "tcja-extension.webp" }, { "title": "Employer National Insurance reforms in the Autumn Budget 2024", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to employer NI would raise \u00a323 billion in 2025 and affect two thirds of people.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to employer NI would raise £23 billion in 2025 and affect two thirds of people.", "date": "2024-10-30 16:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "autumn-budget-24-employer-ni.md", "image": "autumn-budget-24-employer-ni.webp" }, { "title": "Fuel duty reforms in the Autumn Budget 2024", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to fuel duty will cost \u00a32.4 billion in 2025.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects the reforms to fuel duty will cost £2.4 billion in 2025.", "date": "2024-10-30 17:30:00", - "tags": ["uk", "autumn-budget", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "autumn-budget", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "autumn-budget-24-fuel-duty.md", "image": "autumn-budget-24-fuel-duty.webp" }, { "title": "Donald Trump's Economic Agenda", - "description": "PolicyEngine projects three provisions of Donald Trump\u2019s tax plan would cost $5.4 trillion over the next ten years.", + "description": "PolicyEngine projects three provisions of Donald Trump’s tax plan would cost $5.4 trillion over the next ten years.", "date": "2024-10-31 17:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "election", "donald-trump", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "election", + "donald-trump", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "trump-2024.md", "image": "trump-2024.webp" }, { - "title": "How Would Each Presidential Candidate\u2019s Economic Plans Affect Your Household?", - "description": "PolicyEngine has created a personalized calculator for the 2024 presidential election\u2019s tax proposals.", + "title": "How Would Each Presidential Candidate’s Economic Plans Affect Your Household?", + "description": "PolicyEngine has created a personalized calculator for the 2024 presidential election’s tax proposals.", "date": "2024-11-03 17:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "election", "donald-trump", "kamala-harris", "featured", "interactives"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "election", + "donald-trump", + "kamala-harris", + "featured", + "interactives" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "introducing-2024-election-calculator.md", "image": "introducing-2024-election-calculator.webp" }, @@ -1496,8 +2529,13 @@ "title": "Federal Tax Inflation Adjustments for Tax Year 2025", "description": "PolicyEngine has updated all relevant federal tax parameters based on the latest IRS announcements.", "date": "2024-11-19 09:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "featured"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "federal-tax-inflation-adjustments-2025.md", "image": "fed_tax_inflation_adjustments.webp" }, @@ -1505,8 +2543,15 @@ "title": "Introducing GiveCalc", "description": "Calculate the true cost of charitable giving.", "date": "2024-12-03 09:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "giving"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "giving" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "givecalc.md", "image": "givecalc.webp" }, @@ -1514,8 +2559,14 @@ "title": "Louisiana Transitions to a Flat Tax", "description": "Analysis of the individual tax changes signed into law by Governor Jeff Landry.", "date": "2024-12-10 09:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "louisiana"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "louisiana" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "louisiana-flat-tax.md", "image": "louisiana-flat-tax.webp" }, @@ -1523,35 +2574,57 @@ "title": "NEO Philanthropy Awards $200,000 Grant to PolicyEngine", "description": "Economic Mobility & Opportunity Fund supports expanding access to policy analysis tools.", "date": "2024-12-18 09:30:00", - "tags": ["us", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "neo-philanthropy.md", "image": "neo-philanthropy.webp" }, { - "title": "Nuffield Foundation awards \u00a3250k to enhance PolicyEngine UK", + "title": "Nuffield Foundation awards £250k to enhance PolicyEngine UK", "description": "Grant will support expanding and localising tax-benefit microsimulation capabilities.", "date": "2024-12-19 14:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis" + ], "filename": "uk-nuffield-grant.md", "image": "uk-nuffield-grant.webp" }, { "title": "New AI Feature Helps People Understand Their Taxes and Benefits", - "description": "We\u2019re applying large language models to clarify complex policy rules.", + "description": "We’re applying large language models to clarify complex policy rules.", "date": "2024-12-26 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "featured", "ai"], - "authors": ["anthony-volk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "featured", + "ai" + ], + "authors": [ + "anthony-volk" + ], "filename": "us-household-ai.md", "image": "us-household-ai.webp" }, { "title": "New AI feature helps people understand their taxes and benefits", - "description": "We\u2019re applying large language models to clarify complex policy rules.", + "description": "We’re applying large language models to clarify complex policy rules.", "date": "2024-12-26 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "featured", "ai"], - "authors": ["anthony-volk"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "featured", + "ai" + ], + "authors": [ + "anthony-volk" + ], "filename": "uk-household-ai.md", "image": "uk-household-ai.webp" }, @@ -1559,8 +2632,18 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine US Launches Behavioral Responses", "description": "We've expanded our modeling framework to capture how policy changes affect labor supply.", "date": "2024-12-27 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "behavioral-responses", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff", "jason-debacker", "vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "behavioral-responses", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff", + "jason-debacker", + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "us-behavioral-responses.md", "image": "behavioural-responses.webp" }, @@ -1568,8 +2651,15 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine UK in 2024: A year in review", "description": "From AI-powered analysis to election impact, we transformed policy research through technology.", "date": "2024-12-28 09:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "year-in-review", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "year-in-review", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "uk-year-in-review-2024.md", "image": "year-in-review-2024.webp" }, @@ -1577,8 +2667,15 @@ "title": "PolicyEngine US in 2024: A year in review", "description": "From state-level modeling to AI-powered analysis, we expanded the frontier of policy research through technology.", "date": "2024-12-29 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "year-in-review", "featured"], - "authors": ["max-ghenis", "nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "year-in-review", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "max-ghenis", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "us-year-in-review-2024.md", "image": "year-in-review-2024.webp" }, @@ -1586,8 +2683,14 @@ "title": "Analysis of the Family First Act", "description": "We project that Representative Blake Moore's Child Tax Credit bill would raise revenue and reduce poverty.", "date": "2025-01-17 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "family-first-act.md", "image": "family-first-act.webp" }, @@ -1595,8 +2698,15 @@ "title": "The New York Working Families Tax Credit", "description": "A comprehensive analysis of the proposal from New York State Senator Andrew Gounardes.", "date": "2025-01-21 09:00:00", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured", "us-ny"], - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured", + "us-ny" + ], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], "filename": "ny-wftc.md", "image": "ny-wftc.webp" }, @@ -1604,16 +2714,29 @@ "title": "How We're Improving our API in 2025", "description": "PolicyEngine's API target architecture for 2025.", "date": "2025-02-05", - "tags": ["technical", "global"], - "authors": ["michael-smit"], + "tags": [ + "technical", + "global" + ], + "authors": [ + "michael-smit" + ], "filename": "api-v2.md", "image": "api-v2.webp" }, { "title": "The Proposed New York City Child Tax Credit", "date": "2025-02-18 00:00:01", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], - "tags": ["us", "us-ny-nyc", "featured", "child-tax-credit", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ny-nyc", + "featured", + "child-tax-credit", + "policy" + ], "description": "Analysis of Senate Bill S2238, introduced by Senator Andrew Gounardes.", "filename": "nyc-ctc-s2238.md", "image": "nyc-ctc-s2238.webp" @@ -1622,34 +2745,61 @@ "title": "Kentucky Cuts Income Tax Rate", "description": "Analysis of lowering Kentucky's 4% income tax rate to 3.5%.", "date": "2025-02-26", - "tags": ["us", "us-ky", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ky", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "filename": "kentucky-cuts-income-tax-rate.md", "image": "kentucky-cuts-income-tax-rate.webp", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"] + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ] }, { "title": "The Family Income Supplemental Credit (FISC) Act", - "description": "Representative Jared Golden\u2019s Child Tax Credit reform would cost $193 billion in 2026 while reducing poverty and inequality.", + "description": "Representative Jared Golden’s Child Tax Credit reform would cost $193 billion in 2026 while reducing poverty and inequality.", "date": "2025-03-05", - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "filename": "fisc-act.md", "image": "jared-golden.webp", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"] + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk" + ] }, { "title": "Exempting young children from the two-child limit", "description": "Analysis of the potential impact of limiting the two-child limit to families with children under 5 years old.", "date": "2025-03-06 00:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi", "pavel-makarchuk"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi", + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], "filename": "young-child-exemption-two-child-limit.md", "image": "young-child-exemption-two-child-limit.webp" }, { "title": "New York Governor Hochul's Tax Proposals", "date": "2025-03-07", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], - "tags": ["us", "us-ny", "featured", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ny", + "featured", + "policy" + ], "description": "PolicyEngine analyzed several individual income tax policies included in Governor Kathy Hochul's FY2026 budget.", "filename": "ny-hochul-budget.md", "image": "ny-hochul-budget.webp" @@ -1657,8 +2807,14 @@ { "title": "The impact of Personal Independence Payment, and freezing its level in 2025", "date": "2025-03-11", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], "description": "How the disability benefit, and one reform the government is reportedly considering, affect the UK household sector.", "filename": "pip-and-freeze.md", "image": "pip_and_freeze.webp" @@ -1666,44 +2822,78 @@ { "title": "Analysis of Michigan HB 4170", "date": "2025-03-26", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk"], - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "description": "We project the bill, which would reduce Michigan\u2019s tax rate from 4.25% to 4.05%, would cost $644 million in 2025.", + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "description": "We project the bill, which would reduce Michigan’s tax rate from 4.25% to 4.05%, would cost $644 million in 2025.", "filename": "michigan-bill-hb4170.ipynb", "image": "michigan-bill-hb4170.webp" }, { "title": "Restricting eligibility for the Personal Independence Payment Daily Living part", "date": "2025-03-18", - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff", "max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "description": "We simulate potential realisations of the Government's new \u00a35 billion reform.", + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff", + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "description": "We simulate potential realisations of the Government's new £5 billion reform.", "filename": "uk-pip-reforms.md", "image": "uk-pip-reforms.webp" }, { "title": "The Tax Cuts for Workers Act", "date": "2025-06-16", - "authors": ["pavel-makarchuk", "max-ghenis"], - "tags": ["us", "policy", "featured"], - "description": "We simulate the new bill to restore the American Rescue Plan Act\u2019s Earned Income Tax Credit expansion.", + "authors": [ + "pavel-makarchuk", + "max-ghenis" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "description": "We simulate the new bill to restore the American Rescue Plan Act’s Earned Income Tax Credit expansion.", "filename": "tax-cuts-for-workers-act.ipynb", "image": "tax-cuts-for-workers-act.webp" }, { "title": "Benefits in PolicyEngine", "date": "2025-05-28 00:00:00", - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured", "benefit"], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured", + "benefit" + ], "description": "PolicyEngine models different benefit components in the UK, including means-tested and non-means-tested benefits.", "filename": "uk-benefits-post.md", "image": "uk-benefit-post.webp" }, { - "title": "Idaho\u2019s New Individual Income Tax Changes", + "title": "Idaho’s New Individual Income Tax Changes", "date": "2025-04-01", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], - "tags": ["us", "us-id", "featured", "policy"], + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-id", + "featured", + "policy" + ], "description": "The lower top marginal rate and larger grocery tax credit will cost the state $225 million in 2025.", "filename": "idaho-2025-tax-change.ipynb", "image": "idaho-2025-tax-change.webp" @@ -1712,44 +2902,77 @@ "title": "Taxes in PolicyEngine", "description": "PolicyEngine models different tax components in the UK, including direct taxes, indirect taxes, and proposed taxes.", "date": "2025-04-08 00:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured", "tax"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi", "nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured", + "tax" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi", + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "uk-taxes-post.md", "image": "uk-tax-post.webp" }, { "title": "Utah Cuts Income Tax Rate and Expands Credits", "date": "2025-05-01", - "authors": ["david-trimmer"], - "tags": ["us", "us-ut", "featured", "policy"], - "description": "Utah\u2019s latest individual income tax changes will lower state revenues by $96 million and raise net income for 62% of residents in 2025.", + "authors": [ + "david-trimmer" + ], + "tags": [ + "us", + "us-ut", + "featured", + "policy" + ], + "description": "Utah’s latest individual income tax changes will lower state revenues by $96 million and raise net income for 62% of residents in 2025.", "filename": "utah-income-tax-changes.ipynb", "image": "utah-income-tax-changes.webp" }, { "title": "Reform UK's tax-benefit reform proposals", - "description": "Nigel Farage has confirmed that Reform UK's manifesto will include four tax-benefit reforms that PolicyEngine estimates would cost \u00a375 billion in 2025-26.", + "description": "Nigel Farage has confirmed that Reform UK's manifesto will include four tax-benefit reforms that PolicyEngine estimates would cost £75 billion in 2025-26.", "date": "2025-05-27 19:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "farage-speech-may-2025.ipynb", "image": "farage-speech-may-2025.webp" }, { "title": "Extending the Winter Fuel Allowance", - "description": "The government has reversed its Winter Fuel Allowance means testing, expanding eligibility to 9 million pensioners through a \u00a335,000 income threshold.", + "description": "The government has reversed its Winter Fuel Allowance means testing, expanding eligibility to 9 million pensioners through a £35,000 income threshold.", "date": "2025-06-11 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["nikhil-woodruff"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "nikhil-woodruff" + ], "filename": "wfa-means-test.ipynb", "image": "wfa-repeal.webp" }, { "title": "How changing the VAT threshold affects UK revenues", - "description": "PolicyEngine's new firm microsimulation model estimates revenue and business impacts of VAT thresholds from \u00a370,000 to \u00a3120,000.", + "description": "PolicyEngine's new firm microsimulation model estimates revenue and business impacts of VAT thresholds from £70,000 to £120,000.", "date": "2025-09-10 11:00:00", - "tags": ["uk", "policy", "featured"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "policy", + "featured" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "uk-vat-thresholds.md", "image": "uk-vat-reeves.webp", "imageCredit": "House of Commons/Reuters" @@ -1758,8 +2981,16 @@ "title": "Testing multi-agent AI workflows for policy research", "description": "A multi-agent Claude Code system fared better on distributional analysis than benefit interactions; insights inform our forthcoming plugin.", "date": "2025-10-28", - "tags": ["uk", "us", "featured", "technology", "ai"], - "authors": ["vahid-ahmadi"], + "tags": [ + "uk", + "us", + "featured", + "technology", + "ai" + ], + "authors": [ + "vahid-ahmadi" + ], "filename": "multi-agent-workflows-policy-research.md", "image": "multi-agent-workflows-policy-research.webp" } From aa9a8033fba0f7684998abe85374e38ca7187e2c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 08:04:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/7] Date the two SPM posts for the release day and apply the remaining verified fixes Prediction post: the opener names the 10 am ET release; the corrected 2024 anchors cite Table 3 of SEHSD-WP2026-17 (13.0 / 13.4 / 15.1, verified against the paper); the legacy model is described as the one serving policyengine.org today, since the canonical runtime has not been promoted; the unverified "most of the difference is threshold growth" sentence is cut; the rerun paragraph reports the result (policyengine-us 2.2.1 on the certified release reproduced the all-people and child changes to within 0.001 pp, receipt in the rollout directory), and the closing section no longer says "Tuesday". Announcement post: PyPI link goes to the project page; the cross-link no longer says "Tuesday's". Both posts dated 2026-09-15; the prediction title drops "Tuesday's" and the announcement title says "any US area, 2022 through 2035". Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md | 12 ++++++------ .../posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md | 4 ++-- app/src/data/posts/posts.json | 8 ++++---- 3 files changed, 12 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md index e3825a13e..430d03fd7 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -On Tuesday, September 15, the Census Bureau publishes poverty rates for 2025. Our prediction for the Supplemental Poverty Measure is 13.2 percent of people, up from 13.0 percent in 2024. For children we predict 14.3 percent, up from 13.4; for people 65 and over, 14.6 percent, down from 15.1. +At 10 am ET on September 15, the Census Bureau publishes poverty rates for 2025. Our prediction for the Supplemental Poverty Measure is 13.2 percent of people, up from 13.0 percent in 2024. For children we predict 14.3 percent, up from 13.4; for people 65 and over, 14.6 percent, down from 15.1. We wrote the numbers down before the release. The prediction file, its hash, and an OpenTimestamps proof are in the [spm-threshold-paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper/blob/master/data/predictions/2025-spm-poverty-rates-2026-09-11.json). If it misses, it stays there. @@ -12,11 +12,11 @@ The prediction is the Census 2024 rate plus PolicyEngine's modeled change from 2 | Under 18 | 13.4 | +0.86 | 14.3 | | 65 and over | 15.1 | −0.52 | 14.6 | -The 2024 anchors are the corrected series Census published in August after BLS revised the thresholds. On the original series the anchors are 12.9, 13.4 and 15.0, and the predictions round to 13.1, 14.3 and 14.5. +The 2024 anchors are the corrected series in Table 3 of Census's [August working paper](https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2026/demo/sehsd-wp2026-17.html), issued after BLS revised the thresholds. On the original series the anchors are 12.9, 13.4 and 15.0, and the predictions round to 13.1, 14.3 and 14.5. -The model in production until this week would have predicted a fall, to 12.5 percent. It aged the 2024 thresholds by 2.6 percent CPI-U inflation. The thresholds BLS published in August rose 4.4 to 6.3 percent, and the new [spm-calculator](/us/research/introducing-spm-calculator) uses them directly. Most of the difference between the two predictions is that threshold growth. +The model serving policyengine.org today would have predicted a fall, to 12.5 percent. It ages the 2024 thresholds by 2.6 percent CPI-U inflation. The thresholds BLS published in August rose 4.4 to 6.3 percent, and the new [spm-calculator](/us/research/introducing-spm-calculator) uses them directly. -The modeled changes come from development runs on policyengine-core 3.30.1. A rerun on the exact runtime we are shipping is in progress as this posts; the prediction file commits us to adding a dated amendment, never an edit, if any group's change moves by 0.05 points or more. +The modeled changes come from development runs on policyengine-core 3.30.1. A rerun before the release on the shipping runtime, policyengine-us 2.2.1 with the certified population release, reproduced the all-people and child changes to within 0.001 points. The prediction file commits us to a dated amendment, never an edit, if any group's change moves by 0.05 points or more. ## How PolicyEngine calculates SPM poverty @@ -37,6 +37,6 @@ The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEng - **Levels.** The model's own 2025 level is 13.2 percent for all people, 16.6 for children and 10.9 for seniors. The child and senior levels sit far from Census, in opposite directions, which is why we report changes. Those gaps are open questions for us, not corrections to Census. - **Local thresholds for 2025** are projections until Census publishes the geography. -## What Tuesday tells us +## What the release tells us -Census will publish the 2025 rate and a revised 2024 rate on the corrected thresholds. We will grade the prediction against the published change for each group, add the result to the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper), and write up what the misses point to. +Census publishes the 2025 rate and the 2024 rate on the corrected thresholds. We will grade the prediction against the published change for each group, add the result to the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper), and write up what the misses point to. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md index a248c774b..00ff958e8 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/introducing-spm-calculator.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ Every SPM poverty rate starts with a threshold: the amount a family of a given size and housing situation needs, in its part of the country, in a given year. Census publishes the rates each September. BLS publishes the national thresholds a few weeks earlier, and the local adjustments arrive with the microdata. Anyone who wants a threshold for a year Census has not reached yet has had to guess. -[spm-calculator 1.0](https://pypi.org/project/spm-calculator/1.0.0/) is our answer to that. It computes a Supplemental Poverty Measure threshold for any family composition, housing tenure, and metro or nonmetro area, for 2022 through 2035. Through 2025 it uses the published BLS values. Beyond that it projects them by the method BLS and Census use, advancing the same data windows they advance. The [calculator app](https://policyengine.org/us/spm-calculator) runs the same artifact in the browser. +[spm-calculator 1.0](https://pypi.org/project/spm-calculator/) is our answer to that. It computes a Supplemental Poverty Measure threshold for any family composition, housing tenure, and metro or nonmetro area, for 2022 through 2035. Through 2025 it uses the published BLS values. Beyond that it projects them by the method BLS and Census use, advancing the same data windows they advance. The [calculator app](https://policyengine.org/us/spm-calculator) runs the same artifact in the browser. ## What a threshold is made of @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ The app also lost options. Earlier versions offered county and congressional-dis ## What it does not do -The calculator computes thresholds. It does not compute resources, so it does not produce a poverty rate; that is the job of the tax and benefit model, and our [prediction for Tuesday's 2025 rate](/us/research/2025-spm-poverty-prediction) explains how the two fit together. It validates against BLS's published cells rather than replicating BLS's code. Its forecasts are conditional on the CBO price path and on real spending following one of the two scenarios, and every projected number carries that label. +The calculator computes thresholds. It does not compute resources, so it does not produce a poverty rate; that is the job of the tax and benefit model, and our [prediction for the 2025 rate](/us/research/2025-spm-poverty-prediction) explains how the two fit together. It validates against BLS's published cells rather than replicating BLS's code. Its forecasts are conditional on the CBO price path and on real spending following one of the two scenarios, and every projected number carries that label. ## Using it diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index 1f13851fe..e6265e478 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ [ { - "title": "Our prediction for Tuesday's 2025 poverty numbers", + "title": "Our prediction for the 2025 poverty numbers", "description": "PolicyEngine predicts a 2025 SPM poverty rate of 13.2 percent, up from 13.0, with 14.3 for children and 14.6 for people 65 and over. How the model builds the number, and what it does not yet do.", - "date": "2026-09-11", + "date": "2026-09-15", "tags": [ "us", "technical", @@ -15,9 +15,9 @@ "image": "2025-spm-poverty-prediction.webp" }, { - "title": "Introducing spm-calculator 1.0: SPM thresholds for any family, anywhere, through 2035", + "title": "Introducing spm-calculator 1.0: SPM thresholds for any family, any US area, 2022 through 2035", "description": "The rebuilt calculator uses BLS's corrected thresholds through 2025 and projects later years by advancing the same expenditure and rent windows BLS and Census use. Its August nowcast of the 2025 thresholds missed by 1.17 percent; CPI aging would have missed by 2.58.", - "date": "2026-09-11", + "date": "2026-09-15", "tags": [ "us", "technical", From 685401e5b1bf10e60a6cbca0839e1fad7914cbc6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 10:06:24 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 3/7] Grade the 2025 SPM prediction against the Census release Census (P60-290, 10 am ET September 15): SPM 13.1% all people (+0.1 pp), 13.4% children (-0.1), 15.4% age 65 and over (+0.2); renters 24.0% (+0.8), owners with mortgage 6.0% (-0.2), owners without 11.9% (unchanged). Registered prediction +0.2 / +0.9 / -0.5 misses by +0.1 / +1.0 / -0.7; prior model -0.5 / -0.2 / -1.2 misses by -0.6 / -0.1 / -1.4. The opener states the result, a results section carries the table, the chart adds the Census 2025 markers, and the title and description say the prediction is graded. 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for 2025. Our prediction for the Supplemental Poverty Measure is 13.2 percent of people, up from 13.0 percent in 2024. For children we predict 14.3 percent, up from 13.4; for people 65 and over, 14.6 percent, down from 15.1. +At 10 am ET on September 15, the Census Bureau published poverty rates for 2025. Our prediction, registered September 11, was that Supplemental Poverty Measure poverty would rise 0.2 points to 13.2 percent of people, rise 0.9 points to 14.3 percent for children, and fall 0.5 points to 14.6 percent for people 65 and over. Census reported 13.1 percent (up 0.1), 13.4 percent for children (down 0.1), and 15.4 percent for people 65 and over (up 0.2). The child prediction missed by a point. The results section at the end grades both this prediction and the prior model's. We wrote the numbers down before the release. The prediction file, its hash, and an OpenTimestamps proof are in the [spm-threshold-paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper/blob/master/data/predictions/2025-spm-poverty-rates-2026-09-11.json). If it misses, it stays there. @@ -37,6 +37,14 @@ The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEng - **Levels.** The model's own 2025 level is 13.2 percent for all people, 16.6 for children and 10.9 for seniors. The child and senior levels sit far from Census, in opposite directions, which is why we report changes. Those gaps are open questions for us, not corrections to Census. - **Local thresholds for 2025** are projections until Census publishes the geography. -## What the release tells us +## What Census published -Census publishes the 2025 rate and the 2024 rate on the corrected thresholds. We will grade the prediction against the published change for each group, add the result to the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper), and write up what the misses point to. +*Poverty in the United States: 2025* (P60-290) reports SPM poverty of 13.1 percent for all people, up 0.1 point from 2024; 13.4 percent for children, down 0.1; and 15.4 percent for people 65 and over, up 0.2. By housing tenure, the renter rate rose 0.8 points to 24.0 percent, the rate for owners with a mortgage fell 0.2 to 6.0, and the rate for owners without a mortgage was unchanged at 11.9. + +| Group | Census change, pp | Registered prediction | Miss | Prior model | Miss | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| All people | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +| Under 18 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +| 65 and over | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −1.4 | + +The registered prediction was closer than the prior model for all people and for people 65 and over. The prior model was closer for children, where the registered change missed by a full point. The renter rate rose in line with the threshold growth for renters; the child rate did not, so the miss sits in the resources of families with children, not in the thresholds. The grade goes into the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper) as a dated record, and the child miss is the next thing to take apart. diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json index e6265e478..681175fef 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/posts.json +++ b/app/src/data/posts/posts.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ [ { - "title": "Our prediction for the 2025 poverty numbers", - "description": "PolicyEngine predicts a 2025 SPM poverty rate of 13.2 percent, up from 13.0, with 14.3 for children and 14.6 for people 65 and over. How the model builds the number, and what it does not yet do.", + "title": "Our 2025 poverty prediction, graded", + "description": "PolicyEngine registered a 2025 SPM poverty prediction before the Census release: up 0.2 points overall, up 0.9 for children, down 0.5 for seniors. Census reported +0.1, −0.1 and +0.2. 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zOj;leC)u^2CZNuf#exSP3+>?!WxYK+#Y*EG5x7vUg~9wm*|!k8=YBjG2O%Y#B{gpZ zeOFJ{?6gMLIjl1m$NvUCYdBfZ;Tw-CrI!tImT$OG_& z@$nA|G#8Tlv-~ZM-XsgSWP)5csbR{PFgFiOM6vh9XVtqZOUR>oI0s_7V?1AGpnuoh z`2s4grPkrQv%A%JOHCxez00Kk=gR-*e$TyO;T<1+9#HP&MW*?!Pgh&_jAi1pim%3A zDmxm8Ebo11EK)`C4+P2HjPJVTkXeT~wOKWrOo!-Q{qhtBn}t{(!ef*KcIH#+R^E*B z8J?G`$1dy14uwtLp*JDa9sy9mdmyv=+ap#7OT@4JUY$H?^%F?QM~gpH>zk$=pe-^< zP7C7isic&ZW-i6bTM8e{s6}w^T(MJ=z~fZv7b&` z089~iiwOdgo?(J>9nC;b&D?fSjAevgeY#dp*GOaYa?sCV%)PlrvVw7O0JXr+_OkT_ z!Fn>9tc}EG69xyB^;;N6xbsA}lqdrgX{52K4iOU9E}7yxTwUYLIy)m^U;bG>y0I8H z+gtprWxlA01o#FsGhOmenP=anxl)x$af*)CQr8y$Oih`6SSnQ~*TJgtt>HrUe*l}r zw#1?_DYgiVWed9O*@)u{2#%NNF9@7^PK>E5oJw1{S(M;~OC^qUchkQehtk1lh({jk zgIh4^3OD9ExDtk=YToL>DGANc56jp z1ZmCGZ8s1%Mh*@2yz6tImq|AfT1CLN>68kaJEadbb+;}a>+RG__%{IVG3r0K4)#h; z3$K+={|F2|nRG_2Jxh~3&gYJ!7ps3CJ+cQa{1|h*H~VhqkNV?tk2b z8st^r9&C*RKEgxH>;i=*`2d&Jzxz5Ki^Dk$wK@x>FU%j-C}9ltGa;lXaD8>@=0-rG z9?nU)@aE;>Y+)%M>!tHnI{oQ2^4eZCO9eM^jh=NtjJF$?rC7zmPdxNL&!UFtzo%%i z23`ey&qqb=oE^>Ja1d*Dp=u}5HfK;tl=+8w`{ipH{DytErWnwhvn9R3wY-h_xvhDy z+VjQDo0~tr$8R+UKlkG?T(*I{AKBK+j Z5?$A+4mBjV{EJ9=tDr7lEo&C`{{Vqsor?ef From fff0593c7920ece59ac35dfadbc5a73996ad9147 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 10:08:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 5/7] Add the counts and the population re-basing note to the results section Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md index 641eb483c..ad4b890a5 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEng ## What Census published -*Poverty in the United States: 2025* (P60-290) reports SPM poverty of 13.1 percent for all people, up 0.1 point from 2024; 13.4 percent for children, down 0.1; and 15.4 percent for people 65 and over, up 0.2. By housing tenure, the renter rate rose 0.8 points to 24.0 percent, the rate for owners with a mortgage fell 0.2 to 6.0, and the rate for owners without a mortgage was unchanged at 11.9. +*Poverty in the United States: 2025* (P60-290) reports SPM poverty of 13.1 percent for all people, up 0.1 point from 2024; 13.4 percent for children, down 0.1; and 15.4 percent for people 65 and over, up 0.2. In numbers, 44.4 million people and 9.7 million children were below the SPM threshold. The report re-bases 2024 to Vintage 2025 population controls, which puts its 2024 child rate at 13.5 percent rather than the 13.4 we anchored on; the changes below are the ones Census printed. By housing tenure, the renter rate rose 0.8 points to 24.0 percent, the rate for owners with a mortgage fell 0.2 to 6.0, and the rate for owners without a mortgage was unchanged at 11.9. | Group | Census change, pp | Registered prediction | Miss | Prior model | Miss | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | From dfb575db28cf3026b0d0951c6f1b2e3bef3e0629 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Tue, 15 Sep 2026 12:34:39 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 6/7] Locate the child miss with the ASEC anchored-threshold recomputation Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md index ad4b890a5..4ae0a09e4 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md @@ -47,4 +47,4 @@ The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEng | Under 18 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | | 65 and over | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −1.4 | -The registered prediction was closer than the prior model for all people and for people 65 and over. The prior model was closer for children, where the registered change missed by a full point. The renter rate rose in line with the threshold growth for renters; the child rate did not, so the miss sits in the resources of families with children, not in the thresholds. The grade goes into the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper) as a dated record, and the child miss is the next thing to take apart. +The registered prediction was closer than the prior model for all people and for people 65 and over. The prior model was closer for children, where the registered change missed by a full point. The public-use microdata says where the miss sits. Recomputing the 2025 SPM from the 2026 CPS ASEC file with the national thresholds held at their 2024 values plus CPI-U (2.6 percent), and everything else as published, gives 12.3 percent for all people, 12.3 for children, and 14.7 for people 65 and over. Against the 2024 rates that is a fall of 0.7 points overall, 1.2 for children, and 0.4 for seniors before threshold growth; the thresholds rising faster than prices then added 0.8, 1.1, and 0.7 points. The model's threshold effect for children, 1.1 points between the prior run and the new one, matches the data. Its resource-side change did not: the data show child poverty falling 1.2 points at constant real thresholds, and the model had 0.2. The grade goes into the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper) as a dated record, and the child miss is the next thing to take apart. From dda2439757f9c2c3610b090e167187baaa0621cb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:23:18 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 7/7] Prediction post links the anchored-thresholds post for the full table Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md index 4ae0a09e4..b634e2e36 100644 --- a/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md +++ b/app/src/data/posts/articles/2025-spm-poverty-prediction.md @@ -47,4 +47,4 @@ The full description, with every variable named and linked, is in the [PolicyEng | Under 18 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | | 65 and over | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.2 | −1.4 | -The registered prediction was closer than the prior model for all people and for people 65 and over. The prior model was closer for children, where the registered change missed by a full point. The public-use microdata says where the miss sits. Recomputing the 2025 SPM from the 2026 CPS ASEC file with the national thresholds held at their 2024 values plus CPI-U (2.6 percent), and everything else as published, gives 12.3 percent for all people, 12.3 for children, and 14.7 for people 65 and over. Against the 2024 rates that is a fall of 0.7 points overall, 1.2 for children, and 0.4 for seniors before threshold growth; the thresholds rising faster than prices then added 0.8, 1.1, and 0.7 points. The model's threshold effect for children, 1.1 points between the prior run and the new one, matches the data. Its resource-side change did not: the data show child poverty falling 1.2 points at constant real thresholds, and the model had 0.2. The grade goes into the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper) as a dated record, and the child miss is the next thing to take apart. +The registered prediction was closer than the prior model for all people and for people 65 and over. The prior model was closer for children, where the registered change missed by a full point. The public-use microdata says where the miss sits. Recomputing the 2025 SPM from the 2026 CPS ASEC file with the national thresholds held at their 2024 values plus CPI-U (2.6 percent), and everything else as published, gives 12.3 percent for all people, 12.3 for children, and 14.7 for people 65 and over (the full table, the chained-CPI variant and the method are in [2025 SPM poverty at 2024 thresholds](/us/research/2025-spm-poverty-at-2024-thresholds)). Against the 2024 rates that is a fall of 0.7 points overall, 1.2 for children, and 0.4 for seniors before threshold growth; the thresholds rising faster than prices then added 0.8, 1.1, and 0.7 points. The model's threshold effect for children, 1.1 points between the prior run and the new one, matches the data. Its resource-side change did not: the data show child poverty falling 1.2 points at constant real thresholds, and the model had 0.2. The grade goes into the [paper repository](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/spm-threshold-paper) as a dated record, and the child miss is the next thing to take apart.