diff --git a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json index a20a3160..2ed66ad7 100644 --- a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json +++ b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "schema_version": 2, "note": "Developer adjudications of judge verdicts. An entry either resolves a non-final judge class to a final one (llm_error, parse_contract_failure) or affirms prompt_ambiguity, which is allowed only together with excluded_from_scoring: true, meaning the output is removed from scoring for every model and listed in the run's reference_exclusions.json (the freezer verifies the two records agree). Each entry keeps the judge's verdict verbatim beside the decision and the reasoning. Applied to the row annotations and case notes by scripts/apply_adjudications.py before export.", - "date_conventions": "adjudicated_on names the audit wave that made the decision (2026-09-05, 2026-09-22 or 2026-09-29). It carries no time of day or time zone. The 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-22 waves' decisions were written up to the day each wave's release was committed (2026-09-05 and 2026-09-23), and the 2026-09-29 wave's decisions were written on 2026-09-29 UTC, after its reference sweep began. judged_on_utc, judge_rejudged_on and each judge_previous item's judged_on are UTC days, read from the verdict's sidecar (verdict.meta.json judged_at_utc). The top-level judge fields name the case's verdict in this release's audit tree, dated by judge_rejudged_on when a later wave judged the case again and by judged_on_utc otherwise, and judge_previous keeps the verdict that re-judge replaced. A wave's own judge runs could finish after one of its decisions was first written, so a recorded verdict can postdate adjudicated_on up to the last day its wave's decisions were written. A flag an earlier judge run raised stays recorded and names that run in judge_reference_suspect_source, at the top level or on the judge_previous item it belongs to. Where a later wave replaced the verdict a decision reviewed without keeping it, adjudicated_verdict gives that verdict as the decision's own release recorded it.", + "date_conventions": "adjudicated_on names the audit wave that made the decision (2026-09-05, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-29 or 2026-10-05). It carries no time of day or time zone. The 2026-09-05, 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29 waves' decisions were written up to the day each wave's release was committed (2026-09-05, 2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30); the 2026-09-29 wave's reference sweep began on 2026-09-29 UTC, before its decisions were written. The 2026-10-05 wave's decisions follow Max's rulings of 2026-10-05 US Eastern time (2026-10-06 UTC) and were written on 2026-10-06 UTC. judged_on_utc, judge_rejudged_on and each judge_previous item's judged_on are UTC days, read from the verdict's sidecar (verdict.meta.json judged_at_utc). The top-level judge fields name the case's verdict in this release's audit tree, dated by judge_rejudged_on when a later wave judged the case again and by judged_on_utc otherwise, and judge_previous keeps the verdict that re-judge replaced. A wave's own judge runs could finish after one of its decisions was first written, so a recorded verdict can postdate adjudicated_on up to the last day its wave's decisions were written. A flag an earlier judge run raised stays recorded and names that run in judge_reference_suspect_source, at the top level or on the judge_previous item it belongs to. Where a later wave replaced the verdict a decision reviewed without keeping it, adjudicated_verdict gives that verdict as the decision's own release recorded it.", "adjudications": [ { "country": "us", @@ -2221,6 +2221,150 @@ "judged_on": "2026-09-29" } ] + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "household_unit_or_filing_status", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 11,113.57; the alternative is 11,895.23. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI ($6,058.85), while read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($2,505.87). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-30" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 2,346.10; the alternative is 2,218.50. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Minnesota Paid Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($127.60); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 330.73; the alternative is 312.74. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Colorado FAMLI contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($17.99); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-22" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 26,932.27; the alternative is 26,991.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding on federal AGI ($8,484.41), while read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($8,238.41). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-30" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 14,192.66; the alternative is 13,387.65. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Massachusetts PFML contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a) and (c); 458 CMR 2.05(5)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct ($805.01); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 8,108.03; the alternative is 7,664.92. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; New York disability and Paid Family Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($443.11); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 10,729.61; the alternative is 11,137.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Virginia withholding on federal AGI ($5,367.30), while read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($3,514.15). The reference's medical deduction also counts a modeled Medicare Part B premium ($2,434.80) the prompt does not list; without it the output is 11,265.27. Found in the 2026-10-05 audits of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05) and of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-30" + }, + { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "judge_failure_source": "llm_error", + "judge_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-10-05", + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": true, + "judge_reference_suspect": false, + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 3,514.15; the alternative is 3,654.15. The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment or Part B premium; policyengine-us 2.15.17 treats the 69-year-old head as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true) and adds the $2,434.80 standard Part B premium to medical expenses, which Virginia's itemized deductions carry from the federal ones; read with no premium paid, the output is the alternative. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b, scripts/sweep_part_b.py).", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-30" } ] } diff --git a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_audit_row_annotations.csv b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_audit_row_annotations.csv index b404e7b9..6bc1b7b9 100644 --- a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_audit_row_annotations.csv +++ b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_audit_row_annotations.csv @@ -1471,52 +1471,52 @@ us,scenario_021,snap,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model us,scenario_021,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,The model supplied no parseable value for the requested output and therefore failed the required submission contract. us,scenario_021,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model treated the full $5,508 taxable pension as Missouri taxable income, ignored the applicable deductions and 2026 taxable-income threshold, and applied an unsupported flat 1.9% rate directly to that pension. Missouri taxable income is reduced to zero before the rate calculation, yielding $0 of tax before refundable credits." us,scenario_021,state_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single and correctly applied the $3,951 senior deduction and $910 QBI deduction. Its SALT deduction included only the $8,829 of property tax, leaving out the roughly $6,059 of California income tax that counts under the $40,400 cap. It also skipped the 2026 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, so it itemized $24,222 instead of $29,735.52 and got taxable income of $80,066 instead of $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used qualifying surviving spouse status (joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction), but that status requires a dependent child, so single filing applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI, and it added a non-itemizer charitable deduction when itemizing $29,735.52 beats the $18,150 single standard deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model included 100% of Social Security instead of the 85% taxable portion. It deducted the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses above the line, although they are not deductible, and it used head-of-household status and brackets instead of single. It never itemized or took the senior and QBI deductions, and its submitted $11,316 does not even match the $10,564 it computed." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model treated the head as a qualifying surviving spouse with MFJ brackets and a $33,950 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the correct status is single, with 22% applying above $50,400. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction, and it never counted CA income tax in SALT, which would have made itemizing ($29,735.52) the better choice." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used qualifying surviving spouse (MFJ) brackets even though no dependent child exists, so single status applies. It imputed $12,771 of mortgage interest from a balance when no interest paid was given, and it took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the phase-down. Its final $6,919 does not match its own $7,350 computation." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized only $24,222, leaving the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT and skipping the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It then took an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. On its own $78,017 of taxable income, the single brackets give about $11,876, so its $8,547 is an arithmetic error." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model applied qualifying surviving spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. Under single status, itemizing $29,735.52 (SALT including CA income tax, plus charity after the 0.5% floor) beats the $18,150 standard deduction, and the tax falls in the 22% bracket." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model assumed TCJA expired in 2026, bringing back personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions and 15%/25% brackets, but OBBBA made the TCJA rate and deduction structure permanent. It also used surviving spouse (MFJ) status without a qualifying child and imputed mortgage interest. Its submitted $13,013 matches none of its own intermediate results (about $5,920–$7,314)." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used MFJ/surviving spouse treatment with a $32,600 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the head files single. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions and left CA income tax out of SALT, and it applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap. Its final $6,800 is also below its own $8,700 estimate." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model filed as surviving spouse with joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child, so single applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI (which leaves $3,951.05) and omitted the $910 QBI deduction on rental income." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used surviving spouse joint treatment (a $32,500 standard deduction and the 2025 MFJ $23,850 10% bracket), but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction, the $910 QBI deduction and the CA income tax component of SALT." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model applied pre-TCJA law for 2026: a $5,300 personal exemption, 2%-floor unreimbursed employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent, kept miscellaneous itemized deductions suspended, and kept personal exemptions at zero. It also estimated CA income tax at only $2,019 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the senior and QBI deductions." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model used expired pre-TCJA rules: a $5,200 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and old 15%/25% single brackets, instead of 2026 OBBBA law, which has no exemptions, no miscellaneous itemized deductions, and 10/12/22% brackets. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and its submitted $13,047.69 contradicts its own stated $12,372." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized only property tax and charity ($24,222), leaving out the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax and the 0.5% charitable floor. It omitted both the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, so it taxed $84,926.75 instead of $74,552.59 using bracket widths that do not match the 2026 single schedule." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model applied pre-TCJA 2026 law: a $5,000 personal exemption, a deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses above a 2% floor, and 10%/15%/25% brackets. Under OBBBA, exemptions stay at zero, miscellaneous itemized deductions stay suspended, and the 10/12/22% brackets apply. It also left CA income tax out of SALT and skipped the $3,951 senior deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model said it itemized mortgage interest, but no interest paid is given, only a loan balance. It never mentioned the CA income tax SALT component, the 0.5% charitable floor, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction. Its $11,335 does not follow from the correct $74,552.59 of taxable income taxed at single rates." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model used pre-TCJA itemized deductions (about $33,297, including 2%-floor employee expenses) plus personal exemptions, even though OBBBA permanently suspended both for 2026. It also left out the senior and QBI deductions that reduce taxable income to $74,552.59 under the 10/12/22% single brackets." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model computed tax under TCJA-expiration rules: a $5,050 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and post-sunset rates. OBBBA kept the TCJA brackets, zero exemptions and the suspension of miscellaneous deductions. It also estimated CA income tax at $2,172 instead of about $6,059 and omitted the senior and QBI deductions." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model gave no derivation. Its $13,446 corresponds to about $85,150 of single-filer taxable income, which is AGI minus only property tax and charity. That means it left out the CA income tax SALT component, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, which together bring taxable income down to $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 OBBBA cap of $40,400, under which the full $14,887.85 of property plus CA income tax is deductible, and it skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction, leaving taxable income at $82,846 instead of $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model's $9,260 is consistent with joint/surviving-spouse brackets (a 12% top bracket) applied to about $81,300 of taxable income. The head has no dependent child and files single, where income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%. It also never mentioned the CA income tax SALT component or the phased senior deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are permanently nondeductible under OBBBA. It omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, and it did not capture the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax in SALT, so it overstated tax at $13,200." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single but used 2025 brackets and a $15,000 standard deduction. It left the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor, and it omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 phased down to $3,951.05). As a result it taxed $84,016.75 instead of $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,llm_error,other,False,"The model subtracted $5,850 of federal withholding that does not appear in the facts, and withholding is never subtracted from tax before refundable credits in any case. It also treated the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses as an above-the-line adjustment and added tax-exempt pension income to AGI. It used the standard deduction instead of the $29,735.52 of itemized deductions and omitted the senior and QBI deductions." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model claimed deductions and credits wipe out all tax, but AGI is $109,149.16 and total deductions are only $34,596.57. That leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income, and no nonrefundable credit offsets it: the elderly credit is phased out by AGI and Social Security. Its assertion that there is no taxable wage income ignores the $52,635 of wages." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's $1,237 implies only about $12,400 of taxable income, which means it deducted roughly $96,700 from $109,149.16 of AGI. The correct deductions are $29,735.52 itemized, $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior, leaving $74,552.59 taxable in the 22% bracket, with no nonrefundable credits available." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets, but with no dependent child the head files single. It also applied a pre-TCJA personal exemption, which OBBBA made permanently zero, and omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Under single rates, the model's $10,247 implies about $70,600 of taxable income, which means it claimed roughly $3,900 more than the correct $34,596.57 of total deductions. The correct stack is $29,735.52 itemized (with charity reduced by the 0.5% AGI floor), $910 QBI and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 taxable." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model applied surviving-spouse joint-rate treatment and a joint-level age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child. Single status taxes income above $50,400 at 22%, and itemizing $29,735.52 beats the $18,150 single standard deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used the surviving-spouse (joint) tax schedule, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also never mentioned the senior deduction or the QBI deduction, which reduce taxable income to $74,552.59 under the single brackets." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model's senior deduction ($3,951.08) and QBI deduction ($910) were correct, but it used qualifying surviving spouse status, which requires a dependent child, taking the $33,850 joint standard deduction and joint brackets. As a single filer it itemizes $29,735.52, and taxable income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Under single rates, the model's $9,651 implies about $67,900 of taxable income, roughly $6,600 below the correct $74,552.59, so its itemized and senior/QBI deductions total well above the correct $34,596.57. It overstated itemized deductions beyond the $14,887.85 of SALT plus $14,847.67 of charity left after the 0.5% floor." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single and phased the senior deduction correctly to $3,951, but it estimated CA income tax at only about $2,234 instead of about $6,059, which put SALT near $11,063 instead of $14,887.85. It also left out the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, so it taxed $78,742 instead of $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 joint age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. As a single filer the head itemizes $29,735.52, and the 22% rate applies above $50,400, which gives $11,113.57 instead of $7,956.52." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model applied a $30,000 QSS standard deduction and QSS brackets, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the itemized deductions ($29,735.52), the phased $3,951.05 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model assumed TCJA sunset, deducting 2%-floor employee expenses and a $5,419 personal exemption under pre-TCJA single brackets. OBBBA permanently kept those deductions at zero and kept the 10/12/22% schedule. It also underestimated CA income tax at about $2,103 and omitted the senior and QBI deductions." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's structure was correct: single status, itemizing, a $3,951 senior deduction and a $910 QBI deduction. However, it estimated CA income tax at only $1,974 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor, which put taxable income at $78,092 instead of $74,552.59. It also used bracket amounts that do not match the 2026 single schedule." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model estimated CA income tax at only $1,867 instead of about $6,059, which put SALT at $10,696 instead of $14,887.85. It dropped the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and used 2026 bracket amounts that are wrong ($12,225/$49,675 instead of $12,400/$50,400)." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model included 100% of Social Security in AGI instead of the 85% taxable portion, and it applied pre-TCJA law, with 2%-floor employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets, that OBBBA permanently displaced. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions and underestimated CA income tax at $2,254." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model subtracted about $901 of rental depreciation that is not in the facts, which lowered AGI and threw off the senior-deduction phase-down, and it estimated CA income tax at about $2,024 instead of about $6,059. It also omitted the $910 QBI deduction and used wrong 2026 single bracket thresholds." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single and applied the $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction as the engine does. It treated California income tax withheld as unknown and put only the $8,829 of property tax in SALT, and it skipped the 2026 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, so it itemized $24,222 and got taxable income of $80,066. The reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $29,735.52 itemized and $74,552.59 taxable. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes its general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60 ($963 state plus a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality), and the output is $12,192.29, or $12,234.66 without the local part; the model's $12,327 also leaves out that sales tax and the charitable floor." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used qualifying surviving spouse status (joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction), but that status requires a dependent child, so single filing applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI, and it added a non-itemizer charitable deduction, although a single filer here itemizes: $29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 single standard deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model included 100% of Social Security instead of the 85% taxable portion. It deducted the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses above the line, although they are not deductible, and it used head-of-household status and brackets instead of single. It never itemized or took the senior and QBI deductions, and its submitted $11,316 does not even match the $10,564 it computed." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model treated the head as a qualifying surviving spouse with MFJ brackets and a $33,950 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the correct status is single, with 22% applying above $50,400. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list; the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $29,735.52 itemized. As a single filer the head itemizes either way, since the model's own $24,222 of property tax and charity already exceeds the $18,150 single standard deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used qualifying surviving spouse (MFJ) brackets even though no dependent child exists, so single status applies. It imputed $12,771 of mortgage interest from a balance when no interest paid was given, and it took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the phase-down. Its final $6,919 does not match its own $7,350 computation." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized $24,222, with no state income tax in SALT and no 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor; the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $29,735.52 itemized. It then took an unphased $6,000 senior deduction, which the engine phases down to $3,951.05. On its own $78,017 of taxable income, the single brackets give about $11,876, so its $8,547 is an arithmetic error." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied qualifying surviving spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. A single filer here itemizes under every reading of the unlisted state income tax: $29,735.52 in the reference (SALT with the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus charity after the 0.5% floor) and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 standard deduction. The tax falls in the 22% bracket." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model assumed TCJA expired in 2026, bringing back personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions and 15%/25% brackets, but OBBBA made the TCJA rate and deduction structure permanent. It also used surviving spouse (MFJ) status without a qualifying child and imputed mortgage interest. Its submitted $13,013 matches none of its own intermediate results (about $5,920–$7,314)." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used MFJ/surviving spouse treatment with a $32,600 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the head files single. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and it held SALT, property tax plus other state taxes, to the old $10,000 cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap. Under that cap SALT is $14,887.85 in the reference, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $11,334.87 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts). Its final $6,800 is also below its own $8,700 estimate." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed as surviving spouse with joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child, so single applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI (which leaves $3,951.05) and omitted the $910 QBI deduction on rental income." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used surviving spouse joint treatment (a $32,500 standard deduction and the 2025 MFJ $23,850 10% bracket), but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, and it put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld)." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied pre-TCJA law for 2026: a $5,300 personal exemption, 2%-floor unreimbursed employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent, kept miscellaneous itemized deductions suspended, and kept personal exemptions at zero. In SALT it put $2,019 of state income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used expired pre-TCJA rules: a $5,200 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and old 15%/25% single brackets, instead of 2026 OBBBA law, which has no exemptions, no miscellaneous itemized deductions, and 10/12/22% brackets. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and its submitted $13,047.69 contradicts its own stated $12,372." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized only property tax and charity ($24,222), with no state income tax in SALT and no 0.5% charitable floor; the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. It omitted both the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, so it taxed $84,926.75 (the reference taxes $74,552.59), using bracket widths that do not match the 2026 single schedule." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied pre-TCJA 2026 law: a $5,000 personal exemption, a deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses above a 2% floor, and 10%/15%/25% brackets. Under OBBBA, exemptions stay at zero, miscellaneous itemized deductions stay suspended, and the 10/12/22% brackets apply. It also put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), and skipped the $3,951 senior deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model said it itemized mortgage interest, but no interest paid is given, only a loan balance. It never mentioned state income tax in SALT, the 0.5% charitable floor, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction. Its $11,335 matches none of the engine's values: $11,113.57 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT, and $12,192.29 with no state income tax paid." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used pre-TCJA itemized deductions (about $33,297, including 2%-floor employee expenses) plus personal exemptions, even though OBBBA permanently suspended both for 2026. It also left out the $3,951.05 senior and $910 QBI deductions, which with the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions bring taxable income to $74,552.59, taxed under the 10/12/22% single brackets." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model computed tax under TCJA-expiration rules: a $5,050 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and post-sunset rates. OBBBA kept the TCJA brackets, zero exemptions and the suspension of miscellaneous deductions. It put $2,172 of California income tax in SALT, its own estimate; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the senior and QBI deductions." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model gave no derivation. Its $13,446 corresponds to about $85,150 of single-filer taxable income, close to AGI minus only property tax and charity ($84,926.75). That suggests it put no state income tax in SALT and left out the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction. With those deductions the reference's taxable income is $74,552.59; its SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 OBBBA cap of $40,400, under which SALT is deductible in full: $14,887.85 in the reference (property tax plus the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld) and $11,334.87 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts). It also skipped the 0.5% charitable floor and omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction, leaving taxable income at $82,846 (the reference's is $74,552.59)." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's $9,260 is consistent with joint/surviving-spouse brackets (a 12% top bracket) applied to about $81,300 of taxable income. The head has no dependent child and files single, where income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%. It also never mentioned the phased senior deduction or any state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld)." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model itemized unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are permanently nondeductible under OBBBA. It omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction and listed no state income tax in SALT. Its $13,200 is above the engine's value under every reading of that unlisted tax: $11,113.57 in the reference, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) and $12,192.29 with none paid." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single but used 2025 brackets and a $15,000 standard deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor, and it omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 phased down to $3,951.05). As a result it taxed $84,016.75; the reference taxes $74,552.59, with SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model subtracted $5,850 of federal withholding that does not appear in the facts, and withholding is never subtracted from tax before refundable credits in any case. It also treated the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses as an above-the-line adjustment and added tax-exempt pension income to AGI. It used the standard deduction although the head itemizes under every reading of the unlisted state income tax ($29,735.52 in the reference, $24,832.27 with none paid, against the $18,150 standard deduction), and it omitted the senior and QBI deductions." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model claimed deductions and credits wipe out all tax, but AGI is $109,149.16 and the engine's total deductions are at most $34,596.57 under any reading of the unlisted state income tax (the reference's figure, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld). That leaves at least $74,552.59 of taxable income, and the engine allows no nonrefundable credit, the elderly credit included. Its assertion that there is no taxable wage income ignores the $52,635 of wages." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's $1,237 implies only about $12,400 of taxable income, which means it deducted roughly $96,800 from $109,149.16 of AGI. The reference's deductions are $29,735.52 itemized (with SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior, leaving $74,552.59 taxable in the 22% bracket, and the other readings of that unlisted tax leave more. The engine allows no nonrefundable credits." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets, but with no dependent child the head files single. It also applied a pre-TCJA personal exemption, which OBBBA made permanently zero, and omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Under single rates, the model's $10,247 implies about $70,600 of taxable income, which means it claimed roughly $3,900 more than the reference's $34,596.57 of total deductions. The reference's stack is $29,735.52 itemized (with charity reduced by the 0.5% AGI floor and SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), $910 QBI and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 taxable. The other readings of that unlisted tax give smaller deductions." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied surviving-spouse joint-rate treatment and a joint-level age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child. Single status taxes income above $50,400 at 22%, and a single filer here itemizes: $29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 single standard deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used the surviving-spouse (joint) tax schedule, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also never mentioned the $3,951.05 senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction, which help bring the reference's taxable income to $74,552.59." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's senior deduction ($3,951.08) and QBI deduction ($910) were correct, but it used qualifying surviving spouse status, which requires a dependent child, taking the $33,850 joint standard deduction and joint brackets. As a single filer the head itemizes ($29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), and taxable income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Under single rates, the model's $9,651 implies about $67,900 of taxable income, roughly $6,600 below the reference's $74,552.59, so its itemized, senior and QBI deductions total well above the reference's $34,596.57. The reference itemizes $14,887.85 of SALT, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus $14,847.67 of charity left after the 0.5% floor; the other readings of that unlisted tax give less." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed single and phased the senior deduction correctly to $3,951, and it itemized about $26,456 without a breakdown. That is $273.46 above the $26,182.54 the engine itemizes with its own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT and $3,279.52 below the reference's $29,735.52, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also left out the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, so it taxed about $78,742; with the engine's California income tax in SALT, taxable income is $78,105.58 and the output $11,895.23, against its $12,035." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 joint age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. As a single filer the head itemizes and the 22% rate applies above $50,400, which gives $11,113.57 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts), instead of $7,956.52." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model applied a $30,000 QSS standard deduction and QSS brackets, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also left out itemizing ($29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and at least $24,832.27 under each reading of that unlisted tax), the phased $3,951.05 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model assumed TCJA sunset, deducting 2%-floor employee expenses and a $5,419 personal exemption under pre-TCJA single brackets. OBBBA permanently kept those deductions at zero and kept the 10/12/22% schedule. In SALT it put $2,103 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the senior and QBI deductions." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's structure matched the engine's: single status, itemizing, a $3,951 senior deduction and a $910 QBI deduction. In SALT it put $1,974 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer, and it skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor, for taxable income of $78,092. With the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT, taxable income is $78,105.58 and the output $11,895.23; the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $74,552.59 and $11,113.57. It also used bracket amounts that do not match the 2026 single schedule, reaching $11,953." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model put $1,867 of California income tax in SALT, the same figure as its California income tax answer, for SALT of $10,696. With the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) SALT is $11,334.87, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $14,887.85. It dropped the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, skipped the 0.5% charitable floor and used 2026 bracket amounts that are wrong ($12,225/$49,675 instead of $12,400/$50,400). Its $12,192 lands within $1 of the $12,192.29 the engine gives with no state income tax paid, by a different route." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model included 100% of Social Security in AGI instead of the 85% taxable portion, and it applied pre-TCJA law, with 2%-floor employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets, that OBBBA permanently displaced. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and in SALT it put $2,254 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model subtracted about $901 of rental depreciation that is not in the facts, which lowered AGI and threw off the senior-deduction phase-down. In SALT it put about $2,024 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the $910 QBI deduction, and its tax does not follow from the 2026 single brackets on its own $78,538 of taxable income, which give $11,990.36. Its $12,192 lands within $1 of the $12,192.29 the engine gives with no state income tax paid, by a different route." us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"The model returned no value and no explanation for federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, so there was no answer to score." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's structure was correct (single status, the $40,400 SALT cap, a $3,951.08 senior deduction and correct brackets), but it estimated CA income tax at $2,700 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor. It also declined the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, which gave $78,275.67 of taxable income instead of $74,552.59." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model claimed taxable income is too low to owe tax, but AGI is $109,149.16. Even the most generous deductions ($29,735.52 itemized, $910 QBI and a $3,951.05 senior deduction) leave $74,552.59 taxable, which puts the head in the 22% bracket." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,"The model filed as surviving spouse with MFJ rates and the $33,850 joint standard deduction, although no dependent child exists and single status applies. It took the full $6,000 senior deduction, wrongly treating $150,000 as the phase-out start instead of $75,000 of MAGI, and it denied the $910 QBI deduction on rental income." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model added the $17,624.75 of taxable Social Security twice, which inflated AGI to $126,773.50 instead of $109,149.16. It also imputed $12,771 of mortgage interest from the loan balance and applied qualifying surviving spouse brackets even though there is no dependent child." -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model counted non-deductible items (employee business expenses, health premiums below the 7.5% floor, and invented mortgage interest) as itemized deductions and concluded taxable income was negative. The allowable itemized deductions are only $29,735.52, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income, and no nonrefundable credit offsets that tax." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model's structure matched the engine's (single status, the $40,400 SALT cap, a $3,951.08 senior deduction and the 2026 brackets). In SALT it put $2,700 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer and $194.13 above the engine's own $2,505.87 (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts); the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor and declined the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, which gave $78,275.67 of taxable income, against $78,105.58 with the engine's California income tax in SALT and $74,552.59 in the reference." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model claimed taxable income is too low to owe tax, but AGI is $109,149.16. Across the readings of the unlisted state income tax the engine's deductions are at most the reference's: $29,735.52 itemized, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus $910 QBI and a $3,951.05 senior deduction. Those leave $74,552.59 taxable, which puts the head in the 22% bracket." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model filed as surviving spouse with MFJ rates and the $33,850 joint standard deduction, although no dependent child exists and single status applies. It took the full $6,000 senior deduction, wrongly treating $150,000 as the phase-out start instead of $75,000 of MAGI, and it denied the $910 QBI deduction on rental income." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model added the $17,624.75 of taxable Social Security twice, which inflated AGI to $126,773.50 instead of $109,149.16. It also imputed $12,771 of mortgage interest from the loan balance and applied qualifying surviving spouse brackets even though there is no dependent child." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model counted non-deductible items (employee business expenses, health premiums below the 7.5% floor, and invented mortgage interest) as itemized deductions and concluded taxable income was negative. Across the readings of the unlisted state income tax the engine itemizes at most $29,735.52, the reference's, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld; with the $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior deductions that leaves at least $74,552.59 of taxable income, and the engine allows no nonrefundable credit to offset the tax." us,scenario_022,federal_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_022,head_medicaid_eligible,glm-5.2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model incorrectly treated Medicare enrollment plus age 77 as sufficient for Medicaid eligibility. Medicare status does not establish Medicaid eligibility, and this person receives no SSI and has medicaid_category NONE, so no California Medicaid pathway applies." us,scenario_022,local_income_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. @@ -2747,49 +2747,49 @@ us,scenario_031,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_er us,scenario_031,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model wrongly denied the listed alimony deduction and used an estimated $10,207 post-TCJA-reversion standard deduction. PolicyEngine deducts the $1,165 alimony expense and applies the applicable 2026 single age-65-or-older standard deduction, leaving no taxable income." us,scenario_031,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,other,False,"The model's own calculation produced zero taxable income, zero tax, and zero nonrefundable credits, but it submitted $1,268.50. Its numeric output directly contradicts every computation step in its explanation." us,scenario_031,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model incorrectly treated $5,357.50 of Social Security as taxable even though provisional income is below the $25,000 single-filer base, and it then failed to follow its own calculation that the elderly credit reduced tax to zero. The alimony adjustment yields $13,243 of AGI, the standard deduction eliminates taxable income, and the submitted $2,439 has no support in its stated arithmetic." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-fable-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly picked the aged pathway and its 138% FPL limit. But it built countable income by subtracting only alimony ($22,688) and never subtracted the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year). With that deduction, countable income is about $21,400, which is under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied only the $240 general income exclusion ($23,613) against the 138% FPL aged/disabled limit. It left out the senior-or-disabled deduction for health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B (about $2,435/year), which puts countable income below the roughly $21,600 limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with a 138% FPL figure understated at $18,564 and never deducted the Medicare Part B premium from countable income. With Part B subtracted, countable income is about $21,400, under 138% FPL (about $21,600). It also doubted the $4,200 in assets, although that amount easily passes California's senior-or-disabled asset test." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It changed its answer to a 100% FPL limit (about $15,650). California's senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL. It also counted the full $23,853 without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income to about $21,400, within the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It tested gross income of $23,853 against a 100–138% FPL range and never subtracted health insurance premiums. The non-MAGI senior-or-disabled count deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), which puts income under the 138% FPL limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the correct 138% FPL aged limit but compared it with gross income of $23,853. Under this pathway, countable income is net of the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving about $21,400, which is below the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It switched between the ACA expansion test, which does not cover someone aged 67, and a 100% FPL aged limit. It settled on gross $23,853 against an understated 138% FPL figure of $20,783. It never used the senior-or-disabled pathway's deduction of the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income under the real 138% FPL limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It first stated the correct Aged & Disabled FPL limit (about $21,597), which its own $14,408 figure would pass. Then it switched to the SSI federal benefit rate (about $13,596) as the binding limit. It also treated Social Security as MAGI-excluded, although the non-MAGI count includes Social Security in full and instead deducts the Medicare Part B premium." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It said the head is in no categorical group, but at 67 the head is aged, which is exactly the senior-or-disabled category. It also used unadjusted income of about $23.9k and skipped the Medicare Part B premium deduction, which brings countable income below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL without deducting health insurance premiums. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving countable income of about $21,400, under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL of $1,732/month. It never deducted the Medicare Part B premium (about $203/month), which brings countable income to about $1,785/month, under the correct 138% FPL of about $1,800/month." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and required SSI receipt for a categorical route. The senior-or-disabled pathway does not require SSI and deducts the Medicare Part B premium, leaving countable income below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218. Deducting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), as the senior-or-disabled income count requires, leaves about $21,400, below even the model's own threshold." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It picked the correct 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit (about $22,080 by its estimate) but tested gross income of $23,853. The pathway deducts Medicare Part B premiums from countable income, which brings it to about $21,400, under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation, and its 'No' is consistent with comparing gross income of $23,853 with an FPL limit. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income of about $21,400, below 138% FPL, so the head is eligible." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It tested gross income of $23,853 against the 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit without deducting health insurance premiums. Subtracting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) puts countable income under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly identified the non-MAGI 138% FPL limit but measured gross monthly income against it. The non-MAGI senior-or-disabled count deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which brings income below the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation. The correct path is the aged (senior-or-disabled) category: $23,853 gross minus the Medicare Part B premium gives about $21,400, under 138% FPL, with assets passing. The 'No' reflects skipping that premium deduction." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared the full $23,853 with the aged Medi-Cal threshold without subtracting the Medicare Part B premium. The senior-or-disabled pathway deducts that premium, leaving countable income below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly identified the non-MAGI elderly pathway but did not deduct health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, from countable income. That deduction brings income from $23,853 to about $21,400, under the 138% FPL limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It said total income 'well' exceeds 138% FPL, but gross income is only about 150% FPL. After the senior-or-disabled pathway deducts the Medicare Part B premium, countable income falls below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,glm-5.2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It assumed Medicare eligibility rules out Medicaid. Medicare-eligible seniors qualify for Medicaid (dual eligibility) through the aged senior-or-disabled pathway, which this head meets on income after the Part B deduction and on assets." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,glm-5.3,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It tested the head against the ACA adult expansion limit, which does not apply at age 67, and overstated income as about 199% FPL; $23,853 is about 150% FPL. The applicable pathway is senior-or-disabled, where countable income after the Medicare Part B premium deduction is under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It looked for a disability flag and missed that age 67 alone meets the aged criterion for the senior-or-disabled pathway. Under that pathway, income net of the Medicare Part B premium is below 138% FPL and the $4,200 in assets passes the asset test." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied a spend-down (medically needy) standard and counted only the $50 over-the-counter expense as a medical deduction. The applicable pathway is the 138% FPL senior-or-disabled program, which deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) and leaves countable income under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no computation, and its 'above threshold' conclusion matches testing gross income. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium from $23,853, leaving about $21,400, below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly picked the aged pathway but compared unadjusted retirement income with the limit. That pathway deducts health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, which brings countable income under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It used an SSI-linked income level as the aged Medicaid test. California's optional senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL, and after the Medicare Part B premium deduction the head's countable income is under that limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied only the $20/month general income exclusion and left out the senior-or-disabled deduction for health insurance premiums. Subtracting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) brings countable income below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross retirement income with the aged threshold without deducting the Medicare Part B premium. The senior-or-disabled income count requires that deduction, which leaves the head at about $21,400, under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted only the general income exclusion and missed the health insurance premium deduction, including Medicare Part B, that the senior-or-disabled pathway applies. With that deduction, countable income falls below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.3,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It claimed PolicyEngine excludes Medicare-eligible (dual-eligible) people from Medicaid. The aged senior-or-disabled pathway is built for Medicare-age individuals, and this head meets its income test (after the Part B deduction) and its asset test." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.5,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It treated $4,200 in bank assets as over the aged resource limit, but $4,200 easily passes California's senior-or-disabled asset test ($130,000 for an individual in 2026). It also tested gross income of $23,853 without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It mixed MAGI and ABD counting and compared the full $23,853 with the Aged & Disabled FPL limit. The non-MAGI count deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving about $21,400, under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against the 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit. It missed the deduction of health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, which brings countable income below the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It applied the $2,000 SSI resource limit. California's senior-or-disabled Medi-Cal asset limit is $130,000 for an individual in 2026, so $4,200 passes, and income after the Medicare Part B deduction is under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,inkling,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It used a 100% FPL limit (about $15,650) for aged Medi-Cal, but California's senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL. It also counted gross income without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income to about $21,400, under the limit." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,kimi-k2.6,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It said the head fits no non-MAGI aged or disabled pathway because they are not disabled or on SSI. At 67 the head is aged, which qualifies them for the senior-or-disabled category without SSI receipt, and they pass its income test (after the Part B deduction) and its asset test." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly excluded the adult expansion group but compared unadjusted retirement income with the aged limit. The senior-or-disabled pathway deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,minimax-m3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It guessed that roughly $24k of income exceeds the senior limit without using any threshold or deduction. The correct calculation subtracts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435) from $23,853, which gives about $21,400, under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,ox-alpha,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It applied the SSI $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets. California's senior-or-disabled asset test ($130,000 individual limit in 2026) is passed. It also compared gross income with the income standard without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings income below 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with 'typical' ABD limits and treated missing SSI or disability status as disqualifying. The aged senior-or-disabled pathway requires neither, and it deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income under 138% FPL." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It concluded the 67-year-old is in no eligibility category. Age 65+ is itself the aged criterion for the senior-or-disabled pathway, where income net of the Medicare Part B premium is below 138% FPL and assets pass." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-fable-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the aged pathway and a 138% limit of about $1,800 a month, subtracted the $1,165 of alimony to put income at about $1,890 a month, and assumed no specific disregard, saying even SSI-style disregards would leave it over. The engine does not subtract alimony; it takes $1,987.79 a month less California's $230 disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the aged pathway but applied only SSI's $240 annual general exclusion, putting countable income at $23,613 against a 138% limit of about $21,600. California's $230 monthly disregard takes the place of that $20 exclusion, so the engine counts $23,853.47 less $2,760, or $21,093.47, which is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853, and that amount less the $1,165 of alimony, against a 138% limit it understated at about $18,564, and doubted the $4,200 in assets. The engine subtracts no alimony: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The $4,200 is far under California's $130,000 asset limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It first called gross income of $23,853 well below the threshold, then switched to a MAGI-based 100% limit of about $15,650 (the 2025 guideline), and its explanation concluded the head was ineligible. The engine's senior pathway uses SSI income rules and 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80; it counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It tested gross income of $23,853 against an aged limit it gave as 100% to 138% of the poverty line, about $15,650 to $21,600 (2025-guideline figures), and found it over. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the 138% aged limit, at about $21,600 (the 2025-guideline figure), but compared it with gross income of $23,853. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under its $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It moved between the adult expansion test, which excludes someone aged 67, and a 100% aged limit of $15,060; its explanation settled on the expansion test, with gross income of $23,853 against $20,783, which is 138% of its understated $15,060 guideline. The engine's senior pathway counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It excluded most Social Security to get $14,408, said 138% applied only to expansion adults under 65, cited a 138% aged limit of about $21,597 that $14,408 would pass, then used an SSI limit of about $13,596 as binding. The engine counts Social Security in full and uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) gives $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It said the head was in no categorical group and that countable income of about $23.9k, including Social Security and with no disregard, exceeded 138% FPL. At 67 the head is aged, which alone meets the category condition of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and the engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of about $23,853 with 138% FPL and concluded the head was over the limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It tested gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL limit of $1,732. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79, under the actual limit of $1,835.40 a month (138% of the 2026 guideline). Both errors mattered: income after the disregard still tops the model's $1,732 figure." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and found it over California's FPL-based limit for a senior, without stating the limit. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218, slightly above the engine's $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under either figure." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used a 138% FPL limit of about $22,080, close to the engine's $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline), but tested gross income of $23,853 against it. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no figures or pathway, saying only that household income exceeded the Medicaid limit ""for a single adult."" At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL, without stating the dollar limit, and found it over. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly picked the 138% FPL limit for what it called ""free non-MAGI Medi-Cal"" but gave no figures, saying only that the head's monthly income was over it; in the same response it put gross income at $23,853 for its federal tax and SNAP answers. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from $1,987.79 a month, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79 a month, under the $1,835.40 monthly limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no figures, threshold or pathway, citing only the head's age and income. At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) is $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the full $23,853 as countable and said it exceeded an unstated threshold for people 65 or older. Gross income is $1,828.67 over the limit, but the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It placed the head in what it called the ""non-MAGI"" elderly pathway but gave no income figure or limit, and it judged income too high, which holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. In the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It tested total income against a 138% FPL limit with no disregard and called it ""well"" over, but $23,853.47 is about 149% of the 2026 guideline, only $1,828.67 over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,glm-5.2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It assumed that Medicare eligibility at 65 or older bars Medicaid and ran no income test. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group, and age 67 alone meets the aged test for the senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,glm-5.3,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It applied the adult expansion limit, which excludes anyone over 64, comparing gross income of about $1,988 a month (about 149% of the 2026 guideline, not the 199% it stated) with an understated limit of about $1,600. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $1,987.79 less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It denied eligibility because no disability or low-income flag was listed and income was ""substantial"", without comparing any income figure with a limit. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at age 67 but tested the full $23,853 against an unstated aged income or ""spend-down"" standard, with only minimal medical expenses to offset it. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway instead subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no figures, pathway or threshold and only asserted that countable income was above the applicable California limit, which holds against the engine's limit only if the state's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $23,853.47 less that disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It identified the aged pathway but concluded, without showing figures, that retirement income exceeded California's limit. That holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 monthly disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20: gross income of $23,853.47 is $1,828.67 over the limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts that disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It placed the head in the aged pathway but tested income against an ""SSI-linked income level,"" giving no figures. The engine's limit for this pathway in California is $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and countable income is $21,093.47: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at 67 but said retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeded California's aged limit, giving no figures. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It said the head's retirement income exceeded California's aged Medicaid threshold, naming no exclusion and giving no figures. Gross income of $23,853.47 is over the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), but the engine first subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It said retirement income exceeded California's aged limit after ""the applicable general income exclusion,"" without stating its amount, the income or the limit. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.3,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It ruled the head out as Medicare-eligible, claiming the engine excludes ""full dual eligibles"" from Medicaid. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group: at 67 the head counts as aged for the senior-or-disabled pathway, countable income of $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, $2,760 a year) is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and $4,200 in assets is under the $130,000 limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.5,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It said bank assets of $4,200 and countable income of about $23,853 both exceeded California's aged limits, counting gross income in full. The pathway's asset limit is $130,000, so $4,200 passes, and the engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It counted the full $23,853 as ""MAGI/ABD countable income"" and said it exceeded California's ""Aged & Disabled FPL"" limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against California's 138% FPL limit, which leaves about $23,613, still over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine uses California's $230 monthly disregard in place of that $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It applied a $2,000 asset limit to aged Medicaid and denied eligibility because the $4,200 in bank assets exceeded it, but $2,000 is SSI's resource limit, not this pathway's test. The engine's California senior-or-disabled pathway allows assets below $130,000, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,inkling,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied a 100% FPL limit of about $15,650, the 2025 guideline, and compared gross income of about $23,853 against it. The engine uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80, and subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) from $23,853.47, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,kimi-k2.6,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but ruled out the aged and disabled pathways because the head was not disabled, blind or an SSI recipient. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs no disability, blindness or SSI receipt; age 67 alone meets its aged criterion. Countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but said the listed retirement income exceeded the California aged income limit, without naming a limit or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,minimax-m3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It guessed that about $24,000 of income might exceed an unstated senior limit and answered 0 without naming a threshold or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,ox-alpha,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It correctly treated the head as aged but applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets and said gross income of about $24,000 exceeded the aged income standard. The engine's California pathway allows assets below $130,000 and subtracts a $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It counted $23,853 of Social Security, pension and IRA income in full, said it exceeded ""typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits"" without naming one, and cited the missing disability or SSI status. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs neither, since age 67 alone meets its aged criterion, and it subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from $23,853.47, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"It said the 67-year-old was not disabled, blind or in any other listed category, and that income was above the senior pathway's limit without naming a figure. Age 65 or older alone meets the aged criterion of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline)." us,scenario_031,snap,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model treated gross income under 200% FPL as automatic BBCE eligibility and never ran the net income test PolicyEngine applies to this elderly household. Net income of about $1,779/mo ($1,987.75 minus the $209 standard deduction, with no shelter or medical deduction) is above the roughly $1,305/mo net limit. The household is ineligible, so the $23/mo minimum benefit ($276/yr) does not apply." us,scenario_031,snap,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model assumed BBCE at 200% FPL makes a 1-person household categorically eligible and entitled to the minimum benefit. It skipped the 100% FPL net income test that PolicyEngine applies to this elderly household. Net income of about $1,779/mo is above the roughly $1,305/mo limit, so the household is ineligible and gets $0, not $276." us,scenario_031,snap,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The model treated countable income as very low. In fact, all $23,853 of Social Security, pension and IRA income counts as unearned income, which is $1,987.75/mo gross. Its $144/mo ($1,728/yr) benefit only works if net income is about $513/mo, which means it left out most of the pension and Social Security income. The real net income of about $1,779/mo fails the net income test, and 30% of it ($534) is more than the $298 maximum allotment, so SNAP is $0." @@ -2911,46 +2911,46 @@ us,scenario_032,head_medicaid_eligible,ox-alpha,llm_error,taxable_income_or_dedu us,scenario_032,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed $42,664 in MAGI, then dropped the Social Security dependent benefits on the theory that a child receives them. It tested only the $29,000 in wages. The benefits are the Head's own income, and Medicaid MAGI counts them in full, so the Head is at 156% FPL, above the 138% limit." us,scenario_032,head_medicare_eligible,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_032,head_wic_eligible,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model invented a household-level “WIC-eligible context” pathway and transferred eligibility to the head based on living with a child. The head is age 50, is not pregnant, postpartum, or breastfeeding, and therefore fails WIC's person-specific categorical requirement; moreover, the only child is age 6 and is not categorically eligible either." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Got FICA right ($1,798 + $420.50) but said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026. That drops the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only the 7.65% FICA rate and said Minnesota has no modeled mandatory employee payroll tax. It left out the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees, so it missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave contribution. It then cut its own $2,218.50 FICA total to $2,175.90, citing unexplained 'state-specific considerations', with no rule behind the change." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed 7.65% × $29,000 = $2,218.50 and said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Got Social Security and Medicare right but said Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax. It missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium (0.44% of $29,000 in taxable wages)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Stopped at federal FICA of $2,218.50 and said there is no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. It omitted the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only 7.65% FICA to $29,000 and never considered Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee premium. That premium adds 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota imposes no employee payroll tax beyond the federal ones. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60, which applies from 2026." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota has no paid family leave employee contribution in 2026. In fact Minnesota Paid Leave premiums start in 2026, and the employee share is 0.44% of $29,000 = $127.60, which it left out." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Assumed no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax is modeled and stopped at $2,218.50. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied 7.65% FICA and said there is no employee state payroll tax. It missed Minnesota's 2026 Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Correctly counted the Minnesota Paid Leave employee share but used a 0.35% rate ($101.50). PolicyEngine applies a 0.44% employee contribution to the $29,000 in paid-leave taxable wages, which gives $127.60, so the answer came out $26.10 short." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its explanation says no employee state payroll tax applies and totals only FICA at $2,218.50, so it missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave contribution. Its recorded value of $2,320 does not match that explanation and matches no correct derivation. It lines up with FICA plus a 0.35% paid-leave rate instead of the 0.44% employee share." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed only the 7.65% employee FICA ($2,218.50). It never applied Minnesota's mandatory 2026 Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Counted only Social Security and Medicare, rounded to $2,219, and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that belongs in employee state payroll tax." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied 7.65% to $29,000 and never considered Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution. That contribution adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed only federal FICA at 7.65% ($2,218.50). It missed the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000 and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Treated payroll tax as 7.65% of wages only. It omitted Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed 7.65% employee FICA only and never added the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right but left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"Submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The correct derivation is $1,798 Social Security + $420.50 Medicare + $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave = $2,346.10." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied 7.65% FICA and ruled out Additional Medicare Tax but never applied Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Its explanation lists only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare on $29,000 and says Minnesota has no employee payroll tax, which would total $2,218.50. The $4,428.60 it submitted is about double that, close to the 15.3% employer-plus-employee FICA total. It also missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"First computed $2,218.50 correctly, then threw it out in favor of an invented 5.24% rate tied to a Social Security wage-base cap that does not bind at $29,000. It also treated Minnesota's employee payroll tax as unspecified and never added the $127.60 Paid Leave contribution." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said there is no state payroll tax and stopped at FICA of $2,218.50. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied 7.65% FICA, rounded to $2,219, and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000) that applies in 2026." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Concluded that no employee-side payroll tax applies beyond FICA. It missed Minnesota's mandatory 2026 Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed only 7.65% FICA on $29,000 and never added the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only Social Security and Medicare to $29,000. It omitted the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said there is no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax and stopped at FICA of $2,218.50. It left out the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota paid-leave withholding is optional. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums are mandatory from 2026, and the employee share is 0.44% of the $29,000 in taxable wages ($127.60), which it left out." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Summed only Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50). It never applied Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,inkling,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said no state employee payroll taxes apply. It missed the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000)." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"Submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The correct derivation is $1,798 Social Security + $420.50 Medicare + $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave = $2,346.10." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed FICA of $2,218.50, rounded to $2,219, and never applied the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax because it lacks a CA/NY-style disability insurance tax. It overlooked Minnesota's 2026 Paid Leave program, whose employee contribution is 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only 7.65% FICA and miswrote Medicare as $419.50 instead of $420.50, though its total was still $2,218.50. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It answered federal payroll tax alone, $1,798 Social Security plus $420.50 Medicare = $2,218.50, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, saying there is no modeled mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees and reached $2,218.50, then cut that to $2,175.90 for unexplained 'state-specific considerations', with no rule behind the change. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed 7.65% × $29,000 = $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right and stopped at $2,218.50, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at federal FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Minnesota imposes no employee payroll tax beyond the federal ones and answered $2,218.50. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Minnesota has no state disability or paid family leave employee contribution in 2026 and answered $2,218.50. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums do start in 2026: the reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It assumed no mandatory Minnesota employee state payroll tax is modeled and stopped at $2,218.50. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and said there is no employee state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted a Minnesota Paid Leave employee share, but at 0.35% ($101.50), for $2,320. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, 0.44% of the $29,000 in paid-leave taxable wages, or $127.60, so the answer is $26.10 under it; without the share, which the law lets the employer pay itself, the total is $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"Its stored explanation says no employee state payroll tax applies and totals $2,218.50, federal tax alone. Its recorded value, $2,320, matches another response in its raw output, which added a $101.50 Minnesota Paid Leave premium (0.35% of $29,000). The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only the 7.65% employee FICA, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only federal FICA at 7.65%, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It treated payroll tax as 7.65% of wages, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed 7.65% employee FICA only, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right and stopped at $2,218.50, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and ruled out Additional Medicare Tax, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"Its explanation lists only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare on $29,000 and says Minnesota has no mandatory state employee payroll tax, which would total $2,218.50. The $4,428.60 it submitted is about double that, close to the 15.3% employer-plus-employee FICA total ($4,437). The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It first computed $2,218.50, then threw it out for an invented 5.24% rate ($1,520) tied to a Social Security wage-base cap that does not bind at $29,000. It treated Minnesota's employee payroll tax as unspecified and added none. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no additional or state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% FICA to $29,000, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It answered 7.65% of $29,000, $2,218.50, saying no other employee-side payroll tax is indicated. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,gpt-6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only 7.65% FICA on $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only Social Security and Medicare to $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at $2,218.50, saying no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It answered federal payroll tax alone, $2,218.50, saying Minnesota paid-leave withholding is optional. The law does leave the deduction to the employer, which owes the premium and may deduct up to 0.44% of wages from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), for $2,346.10; the prompt does not say what this employer does." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It summed only Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50), $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It answered $2,218.50, saying no state employee payroll taxes apply. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed FICA of $2,218.50, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at $2,218.50, saying Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax because it has no CA/NY-style disability insurance tax, and rounded $2,218.50 to $2,219, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only 7.65% FICA, $2,218.50, miswriting Medicare as $419.50 instead of $420.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." us,scenario_032,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model correctly placed $42,664 between 130% and 185% FPL for a 3-person household. It then applied the federal reduced-price band alone and ignored Minnesota's universal free school meals program. That program puts every student in the FREE tier, which replaces reduced-price eligibility." us,scenario_032,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model counted a 4-person household with two children, but the household has 3 people and one child. Its answer rests on the federal 185% FPL reduced-price limit alone. It missed that Minnesota's universal free school meals program gives the child the FREE tier, so reduced-price support is not returned." us,scenario_032,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model concluded that income above 130% FPL rules out free meals, which leaves only reduced-price. That reasoning ignores Minnesota's universal free school meals program, which gives free meals to every student regardless of income. The household is therefore in the FREE tier, not the reduced-price tier." @@ -3721,36 +3721,36 @@ us,scenario_043,head_medicaid_eligible,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,categorical_eligibi us,scenario_043,head_medicare_eligible,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,head_wic_eligible,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,local_income_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,llm_error,other,False,"The model correctly counted FICA ($312.73) plus the Colorado FAMLI employee premium and reached $331.14 in its reasoning. That total used 0.45% instead of the 2026 employee rate of 0.44%. It then submitted $315.14, a number its own calculation does not support, so the answer is a transcription error on top of the small rate error." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model assumed no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It left out the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the payroll_tax output includes." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory state payroll tax. It missed the Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and submitted FICA only, rounded to $313." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model identified the Colorado FAMLI employee premium and computed it, but then excluded it on the grounds that it is like unemployment insurance. FAMLI is a mandatory employee-side state payroll premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and belongs in payroll_tax. The model submitted FICA only ($312.73)." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model stated that Colorado has no applicable mandatory employee payroll tax. It left out the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99) and submitted FICA only ($312.73). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model computed only employee FICA on $4,088 and rounded to $313. It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99)." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model treated employee payroll tax as 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It left out the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax. Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees a premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the model omitted from its $312.73 FICA-only total." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model said Colorado has no employee state disability or leave contribution. It missed the mandatory Colorado FAMLI paid-leave premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and submitted FICA only ($312.73)." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model asserted that Colorado has no employee state payroll tax and submitted 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"The model correctly included the Colorado FAMLI employee premium but priced it at $24.53, which is 0.6% of wages. The 2026 employee share is half of the 0.88% total premium, or 0.44% ($17.99), so the model overstated FAMLI by about $6.54." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"The model subtracted the full $8,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages and reduced the FICA and FAMLI wage base to zero. The listed premiums are not a pre-tax employee salary reduction that shrinks the $4,088 of taxable wages. Applying FICA plus the 0.44% FAMLI premium to the full wages gives $330.73." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model applied only 7.65% FICA to $4,088 of wages. It left out the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99)." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model summed only employee Social Security and Medicare tax ($312.74). It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model counted only Social Security and Medicare ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the payroll_tax output includes." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model computed employee FICA only ($312.73). It never included the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model applied 7.65% FICA to wages and rounded to $313. It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model stated that no state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado, missing the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). It also truncated its FICA-only figure to $312." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"The model returned $0 and claimed the wages were not subject to employee payroll taxes, without computing anything. The $4,088 of wages is fully subject to 6.2% Social Security, 1.45% Medicare and the 0.44% Colorado FAMLI premium, which together total $330.73." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model applied 7.65% FICA and explicitly left out any mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax. It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model computed only 7.65% FICA on $4,088 ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99)." -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model computed only Social Security and Medicare and rounded to $313. It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model correctly kept 401(k) deferrals in the FICA base but asserted that Colorado has no employee payroll tax. It omitted the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model stated that no Colorado employee payroll tax applies and submitted 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It missed the mandatory FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model stated that no mandatory state payroll taxes apply and rounded FICA to $313. It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,inkling,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model computed employee FICA only ($312.73). It never included the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and rounded FICA to $313. It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model included only Social Security and Medicare ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model asserted that Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,The model stated that Colorado imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted FICA ($312.73) plus a Colorado FAMLI employee premium at 0.45% ($18.40) and reached $331.14 in its reasoning, within $1 of the reference ($330.73, which counts the most the employer may deduct, 0.44% of wages). It then submitted $315.14, a number its own calculation does not support, so the miss comes from that figure, not the rate." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It assumed no modeled mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Colorado and submitted FICA only, $312.74 rounded to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed a Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.45% × $4,088 = $18.40), then left it out as like state unemployment insurance and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no mandatory employee payroll tax applicable here and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only employee FICA on $4,088, about $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It treated employee payroll tax as 7.65% FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax, no state disability or unemployment-insurance employee contribution, and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no employee state payroll tax and submitted 7.65% FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included a Colorado FAMLI employee premium but priced it at $24.53, which is 0.6% of the $4,088 in wages, for $337.26. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, half the 0.88% premium, or 0.44% of wages ($17.99), so the model's FAMLI is $6.54 above it." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted the full $8,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, cut the FICA and FAMLI wage base to $0 and returned $0. The engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $4,088.15 of wages, $312.74, and the reference adds $17.99 of FAMLI (0.44% of wages, the most the employer may deduct, which the law lets the employer pay itself), for $330.73." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only 7.65% FICA to $4,088 of wages, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It summed only employee Social Security and Medicare tax, $312.74, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed employee FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% FICA to wages, $312.73, rounded to $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado and submitted FICA only, truncated to $312. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It returned $0, treating the wages as not subject to employee payroll taxes, without computing anything. The engine applies 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare to the full $4,088.15 of wages, $312.74, and the reference adds $17.99 of FAMLI (0.44% of wages, the most the employer may deduct, which the law lets the employer pay itself), for $330.73." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied 7.65% FICA, $312.73, and said it included no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only 7.65% FICA on $4,088, $312.732, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, rounded to $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It kept the 401(k) deferrals in the FICA base and said no Colorado employee payroll tax applies, submitting FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no Colorado employee payroll tax applies and submitted 7.65% FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply and rounded FICA of $312.732 to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed employee FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and rounded FICA to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Colorado does not impose a mandatory employee payroll income tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." us,scenario_043,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,snap,claude-fable-5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It correctly found net income of $0 after the earned-income, standard and elderly excess medical deductions. It then used $291 a month, the FY2024 one-person maximum, instead of the 2026 maximum of $298. That gives $3,492 instead of $3,576." us,scenario_043,snap,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,asset_resource,False,"It applied the $2,250 general-household resource limit and concluded that $2,800 in bank assets makes the household ineligible. Because the 66-year-old head is elderly, the higher elderly resource limit applies, and $2,800 passes it. The household is also categorically eligible through Colorado's TANF non-cash test. It is eligible for the $298 monthly maximum." @@ -6162,10 +6162,10 @@ us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,llm_e us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the flat 3% rate to $23,006 − $12,500. It missed that Louisiana indexes the $12,500 single deduction for inflation starting in 2026, making it $12,835, so its taxable income of $10,506 should be $10,171.18 and the tax $305.14." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed about $315 using the unindexed $12,500 deduction, then raised the answer to $446 citing capital-loss treatment and rounding, which no rule supports. The capital loss is already capped at $3,000 inside AGI, and the correct deduction is the indexed $12,835, which gives $305.14." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the $12,500 standard deduction from 2025 instead of the 2026 inflation-indexed $12,835. That left $10,506 of taxable income instead of $10,171.18 and $315.18 of tax instead of $305.14." -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It used Louisiana's repealed pre-2025 structure: a $4,500 personal exemption plus a deduction for federal income tax paid, which gave $17,705 of taxable income. From 2025 both were replaced by a single standard deduction ($12,835 in 2026), leaving $10,171.18 taxable at 3%." -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It reached about $315 using the unindexed $12,500 deduction and then raised it to $448 by citing 'federal-based deductions' and 'personal exemption credits'. Louisiana repealed both of these for 2025+, and they would lower the tax, not raise it. The correct base is $23,006.18 − $12,835 at 3%." +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted a $4,500 personal exemption and an $801 deduction for federal income tax paid from the $23,006 AGI, which left $17,705 taxable at 3% and gave $531. Louisiana ended the federal income tax deduction after 2021, and from 2025 a single standard deduction ($12,835 in 2026) replaced the exemption, leaving $10,171.18 taxable at 3% and $305.14 of tax." +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It reached about $315 using the unindexed $12,500 deduction and then raised it to $448 by citing 'federal-based deductions' and 'personal exemption credits'. Neither applies to this household in 2026, and both would lower the tax, not raise it. The correct base is $23,006.18 − $12,835 at 3%." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It explicitly assumed a $12,500 standard deduction and ignored Louisiana's inflation indexing from 2026, which makes the single deduction $12,835. That overstated the tax at $315.18 instead of $305.14." -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its taxable base of $7,606 means it subtracted $15,400 from the $23,006 AGI, which is roughly a federal-style standard deduction. Louisiana's 2026 single standard deduction is $12,835, which leaves $10,171.18 taxable at 3%." +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its taxable base of $7,606 means it subtracted $15,400 from the $23,006 AGI, which it called the standard deduction without stating the amount. Louisiana's 2026 single standard deduction is $12,835, which leaves $10,171.18 taxable at 3%." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted the unindexed $12,500 standard deduction instead of the 2026 inflation-adjusted $12,835. As a result it taxed $10,506 instead of $10,171.18 at 3%." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It applied Louisiana's repealed pre-2025 law: a deduction for federal income tax, a $4,500 deduction plus a $1,000 exemption, and graduated 1.85%/3.5% brackets. For 2026 Louisiana taxes AGI minus the $12,835 standard deduction at a flat 3%." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $12,500 as the single standard deduction and missed the 2026 inflation adjustment to $12,835. The result was $315.18 instead of 3% × $10,171.18 = $305.14." @@ -6185,7 +6185,7 @@ us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,llm_error,tax us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted the unindexed $12,500 deduction instead of the 2026 indexed $12,835. That left $10,506 instead of $10,171.18 taxable at 3%." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the 2025 statutory $12,500 deduction to 2026 and missed the inflation adjustment to $12,835. This overstated the tax by about $10." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted the repealed $4,500 personal exemption on top of the $12,500 standard deduction. Louisiana's 2025 reform replaced the exemption with a single standard deduction, which is $12,835 in 2026, so taxable income is $10,171.18, not $6,006." -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It correctly inflation-indexed the standard deduction but overstated it as $12,875 instead of $12,835. It also rounded AGI down to $23,006, which understated taxable income at $10,131 instead of $10,171.18 and gave $303.93 instead of $305.14." +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It subtracted a $12,875 standard deduction, which it called inflation-adjusted, from a $23,006 AGI and taxed the remaining $10,131 at 3%, for $303.93. $12,875 is the provisional amount in the Department of Revenue's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet; the reference's $12,835 leaves $10,171.18 of the engine's $23,006.18 AGI taxable and $305.14 of tax. The $40 larger deduction accounts for $1.20 of the $1.21 gap. The rest comes from the $0.18 of wages that the prompt's $26,006 leaves out and from rounding to the cent; with $12,875 the engine gives $303.94." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the unindexed $12,500 standard deduction. The 2026 Louisiana single deduction is $12,835, which gives 3% × $10,171.18 = $305.14." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied $12,500 as the single-filer deduction and missed the 2026 inflation indexing to $12,835. The result was $315.18 instead of $305.14." us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used Louisiana's $12,500 base-year standard deduction instead of the 2026 inflation-adjusted $12,835. That overstated taxable income by $335 and the tax by about $10." @@ -6549,90 +6549,90 @@ us,scenario_080,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_erro us,scenario_080,state_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"The model returned no parseable output for state_refundable_credits, violating the required submission contract." us,scenario_080,state_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model misclassified Pennsylvania Schedule SP tax forgiveness as a refundable credit that pays out the $28.86 liability. Schedule SP is nonrefundable and only reduces state income tax, so it contributes $0 to state_refundable_credits." us,scenario_080,tanf,glm-5.2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax as SALT and set Massachusetts income tax to zero. The $8,484.41 of MA income tax is deductible under the 2026 $40,400 cap, so its itemized total fell from $31,027 to $22,543 and taxable income was about $8,490 too high. It then used a wrong $17,754.75 base for the 24% bracket (the correct figure is $17,966) and added an unexplained ~$626 on top, giving $29,385." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its method is correct, but it put deductible Massachusetts income tax at about $8,230 instead of $8,484.41. It also added the $6 REIT/PTP income on top of dividends, making AGI $174,094. Together these overstate taxable income by about $261 (143,320 vs 143,059.47), which is $63 of tax at 24%." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took a 2024-level $14,600 standard deduction and claimed the $16,900 of mortgage interest was below that threshold. In fact mortgage interest plus $14,127.41 of SALT gives $31,027 of itemized deductions, far above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It also subtracted the $1,782 of unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are nondeductible, used 2024 brackets, and then submitted $29,825, which differs from its own $30,956.92 result." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000, but OBBBA sets the 2026 cap at $40,400, so the full $14,127.41 (real estate tax plus MA income tax) is deductible. That cut about $4,127 from itemized deductions and pushed taxable income to $147,187. It then dropped its own $27,887 bracket result and submitted an unsupported $31,369." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the expired $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, losing $4,127 of deductible state and property taxes. It also used 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700). Its own computation reached $28,172, but it submitted an unexplained $31,379." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only mortgage interest and real estate tax ($22,543) and left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, which is deductible SALT under the $40,400 cap. That put taxable income at $151,544 instead of $143,059.47. Its correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968, which it then inflated without basis to $31,650." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,238.70, which is 5% of income after additional FICA and rent subtractions. The engine deducts $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12. It also counted dividends as $116 by adding the $6 REIT income. Together these raised taxable income by $251.63 to $143,311.10 and tax by $60.39." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax toward SALT and left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, so it itemized $22,543 instead of $31,027 and reached taxable income of $151,551. It then applied 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700), giving $29,219." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, understating itemized deductions by $4,127. On its own $147,194 of taxable income, the 2026 single brackets give about $27,925. Its $33,700 does not follow from any bracket computation it showed." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its approach is correct, but it put Massachusetts income tax at about $8,284 instead of the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Taxable income came out about $207 too high (143,266 vs 143,059.47), which is about $50 of extra tax." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the $10,000 SALT cap even though OBBBA raises the 2026 cap to $40,400. That dropped about $4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax and left taxable income at $147,194 instead of $143,059.47. It also overshot the correct 2026 bracket result on that income ($27,925) by about $54." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It modeled a TCJA sunset: pre-TCJA 10/15/25/28% brackets and a $5,400 personal exemption. OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule and the $0 exemption permanent for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full, and left the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied pre-TCJA law, with a $5,312 personal exemption and the 10/15/25/28% schedule, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also understated SALT at $12,754.55 instead of $14,127.41. Its submitted $27,594.14 contradicts the $29,794.41 in its own explanation." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its structure is correct, but it put deductible Massachusetts income tax at $7,539.70, which is $944.71 below the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Taxable income came out $950.63 too high ($144,010.10), which adds $228.15 of tax at 24%." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It assumed TCJA had expired for 2026, so it subtracted a $5,050 personal exemption and taxed the income under 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 personal exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,823) were close; the error is the rate schedule and the exemption." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took a $15,000 standard deduction instead of itemizing $16,900 of mortgage interest plus $14,127.41 of SALT ($31,027 total), overstating taxable income by about $16,000. Even on its own $159,094 of taxable income, the 2026 brackets give $30,781, not the $31,317 it submitted." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied TCJA-expired brackets and a personal exemption, although OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also reduced AGI to $166,705 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages, while the engine counts the full $175,002 as employment income." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It assumed TCJA had expired, with a $5,300 personal exemption and pre-TCJA brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages and deducted only the real estate tax, omitting the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $169,008 of taxable income is only about $5,000 below AGI, so it left out most of the $31,027 of itemized mortgage interest and SALT that bring taxable income to $143,059.47. Its $24,197 also does not follow from 2026 single brackets on $169,008, which give about $33,160." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full. It also dropped the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT, itemizing only $22,543. These two errors offset each other into taxable income of $144,151, on which the 2026 brackets give $27,194; it then misapplied the brackets and reported $27,858." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The correct derivation is taxable income of $143,059.47 taxed at 24% above $105,700, which yields $26,932.27. Its $24,907 implies taxable income of about $134,620, which is roughly $8,440 of excess deductions. That is consistent with subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages and over-deducting on top of the correct $31,027 of itemized deductions." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It correctly estimated $8,238 of Massachusetts income tax, but then capped total SALT at $10,000. OBBBA's 2026 cap is $40,400, so the full $14,127.41 is deductible. That understated itemized deductions by about $4,127 and gave taxable income of $147,187, and it then overshot the 2026 bracket tax on that income ($27,923) by $127." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It treated 2026 as post-TCJA-sunset law, subtracting a $5,150 personal exemption and applying 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its uncapped SALT treatment was close in effect, since the actual $40,400 cap does not bind, but the wrong rate schedule raised tax to $29,110." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,llm_error,other,False,"It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,388.70 instead of $8,484.41 and added the $6 REIT income to AGI, leaving taxable income at $143,161.10. On that figure its own bracket components sum to $26,956.66. It mis-added them and reported $26,916.66, $40 below its own components." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax. With that cap, taxable income is about $147,187 and 2026 tax is about $27,923. Its $22,450 is roughly $5,500 below even that, so it also misapplied the single rate schedule." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,other,False,"Its $41,495 exceeds the $34,379 that the 2026 single brackets produce on the full $174,088 AGI with no deduction at all. So it neither subtracted the $31,027 of itemized deductions nor applied the 10/12/22/24% schedule, whose 24% bracket runs to $201,775." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Its itemized deductions (about $30,933) were close to the correct $31,027. But it added a 2026 personal exemption and taxed the result under the pre-TCJA rate schedule, while OBBBA permanently sets the exemption to $0 and keeps the 10/12/22/24% brackets. That pushed tax to $29,417 instead of $26,932." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It reduced wages by the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium, but the engine treats the full $175,002 as taxable employment income. That removes about $7,400 of taxable income and roughly $1,770–$2,000 of tax at 24%, producing $24,920 instead of $26,932.27." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its itemization, 2026 brackets and QBI treatment match the engine, but it estimated deductible Massachusetts income tax about $250 below the $8,484.41 in the SALT deduction. That overstated taxable income by about $251 and tax by $60.32." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its approach is correct: itemize mortgage interest plus MA income and property tax, then apply the 2026 24% bracket. It understated deductible Massachusetts income tax by about $141 relative to the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT figure, which adds $33.94 of tax." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies Massachusetts income tax of $8,230.10, which is 5% of $164,602. The engine's SALT deduction uses $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12, so the model took about $5,086 of extra Massachusetts subtractions. That understated itemized deductions by $254.31 and overstated tax by $61.02." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its method is correct, but its estimated taxable income of about $143,260 is $200 above the correct $143,059.47. That comes from putting deductible Massachusetts income tax about $200 below the $8,484.41 in the engine's $14,127.41 SALT deduction, and it adds $48 of tax." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It deducted $8,330.10 of Massachusetts income tax instead of the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction, subtracting about $3,086 more Massachusetts income than the engine does. Taxable income came out $154.23 too high ($143,213.70), which adds $37.02 of tax." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies Massachusetts income tax of $8,230.10, which is 5% of $164,602, instead of the engine's $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12. That understated SALT by $254.31 and raised taxable income to $143,313.70, overstating tax by $61.02." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its taxable income of about $151,500 is roughly $8,440 above the correct $143,059.47. That matches itemizing only mortgage interest and real estate tax and leaving the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT, which is deductible under the 2026 $40,400 cap." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It assumed a 2026 TCJA sunset, subtracting a $5,447 personal exemption and applying restored 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,939) were close to the correct $31,027, so the error is the wrong rate schedule and the phantom exemption." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It modeled a TCJA sunset, with a restored $5,300 personal exemption and 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rates and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. Its $30,932 of itemized deductions was nearly correct, but the pre-TCJA schedule pushed tax to $29,479." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied post-TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,350 personal exemption and restored 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. Its $30,827.70 of itemized deductions was close to the correct $31,027.41, so the rate-schedule error drives its $29,389." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied reverted pre-TCJA brackets (10% to $12,491, 15%, 25%, 28%) instead of the permanent OBBBA 10/12/22/24% schedule. It also itemized only $22,543, omitting the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT, so taxable income was $151,551 instead of $143,059.47." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It estimated Massachusetts income tax at about $8,335 instead of $8,484.41, giving taxable income of about $143,215. On that figure the 2026 brackets give $26,970, and it then misapplied the 24% bracket, adding about $86 more to reach $27,056." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated Massachusetts income tax withholding as 0 and counted only the $5,643 real estate tax as SALT, so it itemized $22,543 for taxable income of about $151,550. The prompt lists no state income tax paid; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption), for $31,027.41 itemized and $143,059.47 taxable. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. It then used a wrong $17,754.75 base for the 24% bracket (the 2026 figure is $17,966) and added an unexplained ~$626 on top, giving $29,385." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted about $8,230 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and close to the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. It also added the $6 REIT/PTP income on top of dividends, making AGI $174,094 against the engine's $174,088.12. With the engine's liability in SALT the output is $26,991.31; its taxable income of about $143,320 and $26,995 compare with that reading's $143,305.47 and $26,991.31, and with the reference's $143,059.47 and $26,932.27." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took a 2024-level $14,600 standard deduction and claimed the $16,900 of mortgage interest was below that threshold. In fact mortgage interest alone exceeds even that, and the engine itemizes $31,027.41 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and $23,396 with no state income tax paid, both above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It also subtracted the $1,782 of unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are nondeductible, used 2024 brackets, and then submitted $29,825, which differs from its own $30,956.92 result." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000, writing 'real estate $5,643 + state income tax well over cap', but the 2026 cap is $40,400, so SALT is deductible in full: $14,127.41 in the reference (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) or $13,881.41 with the engine's own $8,238.41 Massachusetts tax. Against the reference the cap cut $4,127.41 from itemized deductions and pushed taxable income to $147,187. It then dropped its own $27,887 bracket result and submitted an unsupported $31,369." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the expired $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld; $13,881.41 with the engine's own Massachusetts tax). It also used 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700). Its own computation reached $28,172, but it submitted an unexplained $31,379." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only mortgage interest and real estate tax ($22,543), with no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for taxable income of $143,059.47 against its $151,544; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. Its correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968, which it then inflated without basis to $31,650." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted $8,238.70 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer (5% of wages after the FICA, personal exemption and rent deductions, plus 5% of its interest and dividends), 29 cents above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12. It also counted dividends as $116 by adding the $6 REIT income. Its taxable income of $143,311.10 and $26,992.66 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT; with the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, within 2 cents of its answer." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax toward SALT, with no state income tax, which the prompt does not list, so it itemized $22,543 and reached taxable income of $151,551. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $31,027.41 itemized; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. It then applied 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700), giving $29,219." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, understating itemized deductions by $4,127.41 against the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld ($3,881.41 against the engine's own Massachusetts tax). On its own $147,194 of taxable income, the 2026 single brackets give about $27,925. Its $33,700 does not follow from any bracket computation it showed." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted about $8,284 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $45.59 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Its taxable income of about $143,266 and $26,982 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT, and with $143,059.47 and $26,932.27 in the reference." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the $10,000 SALT cap even though OBBBA raises the 2026 cap to $40,400. That cut $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) and left taxable income at $147,194 instead of the reference's $143,059.47. It also overshot the correct 2026 bracket result on that income ($27,925) by about $54." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It modeled a TCJA sunset: pre-TCJA 10/15/25/28% brackets and a $5,400 personal exemption. OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule and the $0 exemption permanent for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full, and put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld)." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied pre-TCJA law, with a $5,312 personal exemption and the 10/15/25/28% schedule, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also put SALT at $12,754.55 of property and state tax, which implies $7,111.55 of state income tax, below both the engine's own $8,238.41 Massachusetts tax and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses ($14,127.41 of SALT). Its submitted $27,594.14 contradicts the $29,794.41 in its own explanation." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its structure matches the engine's, but it deducted $7,539.70 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, which is $698.71 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $944.71 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Its taxable income of $144,010.10 and $27,160.42 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed TCJA had expired for 2026, so it subtracted a $5,050 personal exemption and taxed the income under 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 personal exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,823) were close; the error is the rate schedule and the exemption." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took a $15,000 standard deduction instead of itemizing $16,900 of mortgage interest plus SALT, which the reference puts at $14,127.41 with the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld ($31,027.41 in all; $23,396 with no state income tax paid), overstating taxable income by about $16,000 against the reference. Even on its own $159,094 of taxable income, the 2026 brackets give $30,781, not the $31,317 it submitted." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied TCJA-expired brackets and a personal exemption, although OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also reduced AGI to $166,705 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages, while the engine counts the full $175,002 as employment income." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed TCJA had expired, with a $5,300 personal exemption and pre-TCJA brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages and deducted only the real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT (the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list)." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $169,008 of taxable income is only about $5,000 below AGI, so it left out most of the itemized mortgage interest and SALT: $31,027.41 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and $23,396 with no state income tax paid. Its $24,197 also does not follow from 2026 single brackets on $169,008, which give about $33,160." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full. It also put no state income tax in SALT, itemizing only $22,543; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. These two choices offset each other into taxable income of $144,151, on which the 2026 brackets give $27,194; it then misapplied the brackets and reported $27,858." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"The reference taxes $143,059.47 at 24% above $105,700, which yields $26,932.27; its itemized deductions of $31,027.41 include the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. The model's $24,907 implies taxable income of about $134,620, roughly $8,440 of deductions beyond the reference's. That is consistent with subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages and over-deducting on top of the reference's itemized deductions." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,238.40, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and within a cent of the engine's own $8,238.41 liability, but then capped total SALT at $10,000. The 2026 cap is $40,400, so SALT is deductible in full: $13,881.41 with that liability, for an output of $26,991.31, and $14,127.41 in the reference, which uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. The cap put its taxable income at $147,187, and it then overshot the 2026 bracket tax on that income ($27,923) by $127." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated 2026 as post-TCJA-sunset law, subtracting a $5,150 personal exemption and applying 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its uncapped SALT treatment was close in effect, since the actual $40,400 cap does not bind, but the wrong rate schedule raised tax to $29,110." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,388.70, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, between the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses, and it added the $6 REIT income to AGI, leaving taxable income at $143,161.10. On that figure its own bracket components sum to $26,956.66. It mis-added them and reported $26,916.66, $40 below its own components." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld). With that cap, taxable income is about $147,187 and 2026 tax is about $27,923. Its $22,450 is roughly $5,500 below even that, so it also misapplied the single rate schedule." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $41,495 exceeds the $34,379 that the 2026 single brackets produce on the full $174,088 AGI with no deduction at all. So it neither subtracted its itemized deductions ($31,027.41 in the reference, $23,396 with no state income tax paid) nor applied the 10/12/22/24% schedule, whose 24% bracket runs to $201,775." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its itemized deductions (about $30,933) were close to the reference's $31,027.41, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. But it added a 2026 personal exemption and taxed the result under the pre-TCJA rate schedule, while OBBBA permanently sets the exemption to $0 and keeps the 10/12/22/24% brackets. That pushed tax to $29,417 instead of $26,932." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It reduced wages by the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium, but the engine treats the full $175,002 as taxable employment income. That removes about $7,400 of taxable income and roughly $1,770–$2,000 of tax at 24%, producing $24,920 instead of $26,932.27." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its itemization, 2026 brackets and QBI treatment match the engine's. It gave no state tax figure in this answer; its Massachusetts income tax answer is $8,238.70, and its $26,992.59 is consistent with deducting about that in SALT, where the reference uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. With the engine's own $8,238.41 liability in SALT the output is $26,991.31, and with the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) it is $26,992.64, within 5 cents of its answer." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its approach matches the engine's: itemize mortgage interest plus Massachusetts income and property tax, then apply the 2026 24% bracket. Its Massachusetts income tax answer is $8,338.70, $100.29 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $145.71 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. Its $26,966.21 is $33.94 above the reference and $25.10 below the $26,991.31 the engine gives with its liability in SALT." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies $8,230.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $8.31 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12. With the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, and its $26,993.29 is within $1 of that; the reference is $26,932.27." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its method matches the engine's. Its taxable income of about $143,260 is consistent with deducting $8,284, its Massachusetts income tax answer, which is $45.59 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $143,059.47. Its $26,980 is $47.73 above the reference and $11.31 below the $26,991.31 the engine gives with its liability in SALT." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted $8,330.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, $91.69 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $154.31 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. Its taxable income of $143,213.70 and $26,969.29 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT, and with $143,059.47 and $26,932.27 in the reference." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies $8,230.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $8.31 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12, for taxable income of $143,059.47; the model's works out to $143,313.70. With the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, and its $26,993.29 is within $1 of that." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its taxable income of about $151,500 is roughly $8,440 above the reference's $143,059.47. That matches itemizing only mortgage interest and real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81, against its $28,950." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed a 2026 TCJA sunset, subtracting a $5,447 personal exemption and applying restored 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,939, with $8,396 of Massachusetts income tax) were close to the reference's $31,027.41, so the error is the wrong rate schedule and the phantom exemption." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It modeled a TCJA sunset, with a restored $5,300 personal exemption and 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rates and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. Its $30,932 of itemized deductions, with $8,389 of Massachusetts income tax, was close to the reference's $31,027.41, but the pre-TCJA schedule pushed tax to $29,479." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied post-TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,350 personal exemption and restored 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. Its $30,827.70 of itemized deductions, with $8,284.70 of Massachusetts income tax, was close to the reference's $31,027.41, so the rate-schedule error drives its $29,389." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied reverted pre-TCJA brackets (10% to $12,491, 15%, 25%, 28%) instead of the permanent OBBBA 10/12/22/24% schedule. It also itemized only $22,543, with no state income tax in SALT, so taxable income was $151,551; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $143,059.47." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted about $8,335 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, between the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses, giving taxable income of about $143,215. On that figure the 2026 brackets give $26,970, and it then misapplied the 24% bracket, adding about $86 more to reach $27,056." us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It returned no value and no explanation for federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, so there is no substantive answer to evaluate." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only $16,900 of mortgage interest and $5,643 of real estate tax, leaving the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT even though the 2026 $40,400 cap allows it. Taxable income was $151,543.80 instead of $143,059.47, and its otherwise-correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968.51." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,llm_error,other,False,"It reported $0 with no derivation. A single filer with $174,088 of AGI and $143,059.47 of taxable income owes $26,932.27 under the 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credit to offset it." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It estimated Massachusetts income tax at $8,538, which is 5% of income without netting the $1,080 short-term loss. The engine's SALT deduction uses $8,484.41, which is net of that loss. The excess $53.59 of SALT, partly offset by adding $6 of REIT income to AGI, left taxable income $47 low at about $143,012, understating tax by about $11." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower than a $15,000 standard deduction, which is false, and it also omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax. The correct itemized total of $31,027 far exceeds the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It then used non-2026 brackets and submitted $39,827.88, which contradicts its own $31,281.32 calculation." -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It chose the standard deduction on the claim that itemized deductions were only $22,543. It omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, and with it the itemized total is $31,027, well above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. That left taxable income at $160,402, and even there the 2026 brackets give $31,094, not the $30,041 it reported." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only $16,900 of mortgage interest and $5,643 of real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list. Taxable income was $151,543.80, and its otherwise-correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968.51. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $143,059.47; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It reported $0 with no derivation. With $174,088.12 of AGI, the engine's tax is $26,932.27 in the reference (taxable income $143,059.47, with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) and more under the other readings of that unlisted tax, with no nonrefundable credit to offset it." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted $8,538 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer: 5% of wages above the $4,400 exemption plus 5% of interest and dividends, without netting the $1,080 short-term loss. The reference uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of federal AGI above the exemption, which nets the loss; the engine's own Massachusetts liability is $8,238.41. The excess $53.59 over the estimate, partly offset by adding $6 of REIT income to AGI, left taxable income $47 below the reference at about $143,012, and its $26,921 is $11.27 below the reference and $70.31 below the $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower than a $15,000 standard deduction, which is false, and it put no state income tax in SALT. The reference itemizes $31,027.41, with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and even with no state income tax paid the engine itemizes $23,396; both exceed the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It then used non-2026 brackets and submitted $39,827.88, which contradicts its own $31,281.32 calculation." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It chose the standard deduction on the claim that its $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower, though $22,543 already exceeds the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT; the reference itemizes $31,027.41 with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. That left taxable income at $160,402, and even there the 2026 brackets give $31,094, not the $30,041 it reported." us,scenario_081,federal_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It correctly computed the MA PFML employee contribution as 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It then dropped that contribution, assuming PolicyEngine counts only SS and Medicare. It also submitted $13,268.70, which does not match even its own $13,387.65 subtotal; the correct total adds the $805.01 to reach $14,192.66." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It computed SS ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53) correctly. It left out the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01), which the payroll_tax definition includes as a mandatory employee state payroll tax." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It said Massachusetts has no separate mandatory employee payroll tax, missing the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also capped SS at the outdated $168,600 wage base, even though the full $175,002 is below the 2026 base. It then submitted $13,383.41, which matches neither of its own subtotals." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It estimated the MA PFML employee contribution at about $0 by treating the medical share as employer-paid. The actual employee rate is 0.46% of wages, which gives $805.01. It also submitted $12,321.73, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal of SS plus Medicare on full wages." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It set MA PFML to 0 because it had no rate, omitting the 0.46% employee contribution of $805.01. It then submitted $12,717.62, which is not the $13,387.65 sum of the SS and Medicare figures it had just computed." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It explicitly set the MA PFML employee contribution to about $0 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also rounded SS plus Medicare down to $13,385 rather than $13,387.65." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It identified the MA PFML employee contribution of about $805 at 0.46%, then excluded it on the assumption that the model leaves it out. The payroll_tax definition covers mandatory employee state payroll taxes, so the $805.01 belongs in the $14,192.66 total." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It first reached the correct $14,192.66 using the 0.46% PFML employee rate. It then switched to 0.604%, built on an inverted split: employees paying all of a 0.42% medical portion plus 40% of a 0.46% family portion. The MA employee share is 0.46% of wages, so its PFML came out at $1,057.01 instead of $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It treated MA PFML as employer-side only and excluded it, missing the mandatory employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It then submitted $12,318.65, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 sum of SS and Medicare." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It stated outright that it did not include the MA PFML contribution. That dropped the mandatory 0.46% employee contribution ($805.01) from an otherwise correct SS plus Medicare total of $13,387.65." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It asserted that Massachusetts has no employee state payroll tax, overlooking the mandatory PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01) that brings the total to $14,192.66." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It correctly included MA PFML but applied a 0.38% employee rate instead of 0.46%. That understated PFML at about $665 versus $805.01, and it then rounded the total to $14,053." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied a 0.375% MA PFML employee rate ($656.26) instead of the 0.46% rate ($805.01). It also submitted $13,593.41, which differs from the $14,043.91 total stated in its own explanation." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It used a 0.44% MA PFML employee rate ($770.01) instead of 0.46% ($805.01), which put the total $35 short of $14,192.66." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It included MA PFML at an estimated 0.318% of wages ($556.51). The employee rate is 0.46% ($805.01), so the total fell $248.50 short." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only 6.2% SS plus 1.45% Medicare and omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01). Its $11,843 does not even equal 7.65% x $175,002 = $13,387.65, the result of the formula it described." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"It applied SS and Medicare to $167,613, having subtracted the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums, when the payroll tax base is the full $175,002. It also used an estimated PFML of about $580 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"It cut the FICA base to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premiums, when SS and Medicare apply to the full $175,002 ($10,850.12 and $2,537.53). It also used a 0.24% PFML rate ($402) instead of 0.46% ($805.01)." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It included MA PFML at $765.01 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also miscomputed SS as $10,830 rather than 6.2% x $175,002 = $10,850.12, so the total came up $60 short." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"It reduced FICA wages to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premiums as pre-tax, when the payroll tax base is the full $175,002. It also omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01) entirely." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It named the right three components (SS, Medicare and MA PFML), but its $13,444 total is only $56 above SS plus Medicare on full wages ($13,387.65). That means it counted about $56 of PFML instead of the $805.01 produced by the 0.46% employee rate." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at SS plus Medicare ($13,387.65) and never added the mandatory 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution of $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It built a 0.532% PFML employee rate by taking 40% of the entire 0.88% combined rate (0.352%) as the medical share and adding the 0.18% family share. The employee's 40% applies only to the 0.70% medical portion, giving 0.28% + 0.18% = 0.46%. It therefore overstated PFML at $931 instead of $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It asserted that Massachusetts has no mandatory employee payroll tax and omitted the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only SS and Medicare, which it also mis-added as $13,389.37 instead of $13,387.65. It omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of $805.01 at 0.46% of wages." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It wrongly claimed the wages exceed the $200,000 Additional Medicare Tax threshold ($175,002 does not). It also submitted $5,420, less than half the $10,850.12 SS tax alone, and omitted the $805.01 MA PFML contribution." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Its SS plus Medicare total of $13,387.65 is correct, but it estimated MA PFML at $962.51, which is 0.55% of wages. The employee rate is 0.46%, giving $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only 6.2% SS and 1.45% Medicare (about $13,388) and omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01)." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied the combined 2.9% employer-plus-employee Medicare rate instead of the 1.45% employee rate, doubling Medicare to about $5,075. It also omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01)." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It included MA PFML at 0.318% of wages ($556) instead of the 0.46% employee rate ($805.01), and it rounded the components to whole dollars." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It assumed there is no state payroll tax and applied only 7.65% FICA. That omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It returned no payroll_tax value and no explanation. The correct derivation is SS $10,850.12 + Medicare $2,537.53 + MA PFML $805.01 = $14,192.66." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,kimi-k3,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied a 0.256% MA PFML employee rate ($448.01) instead of 0.46% ($805.01), which put the total $357 short." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,llm_error,other,False,"It returned $0 with no reasoning, as though the head owed no employee payroll tax at all. On $175,002 of wages the correct derivation gives SS $10,850.12 + Medicare $2,537.53 + MA PFML $805.01 = $14,192.66." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It stated that Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax and stopped at $13,387.65. That omitted the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It asserted that Massachusetts has no mandatory state payroll tax, missing the 0.46% PFML employee contribution ($805.01). It then submitted an unexplained $14,525.24 that contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal." -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its listed components (SS, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax) leave out the MA PFML employee contribution. By its own formula the total is 7.65% x $175,002 = $13,387.65 with no Additional Medicare Tax, not $13,922. The correct total adds $805.01 of PFML at 0.46% to reach $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed a Massachusetts PFML employee share of 0.46% × $175,002 = $805.01, then dropped it, assuming a PolicyEngine-style payroll tax counts only Social Security and Medicare when state payroll tax is not modeled. It then submitted $13,268.70, which does not match even its own $13,387.65 subtotal. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed Social Security ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53) and stopped at $13,387.65, federal tax alone, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Massachusetts has no separate mandatory employee payroll tax beyond federal taxes and did not count PFML. It capped Social Security at an outdated $168,600 wage base, though the engine taxes the full $175,002, and then submitted $13,383.41, which matches neither of its own subtotals. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It estimated the Massachusetts PFML employee contribution at about $0 and submitted $12,321.73, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal of Social Security and Medicare on full wages. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It set Massachusetts PFML to 0 for lack of a rate, then submitted $12,717.62, which is not the $13,387.65 sum of the Social Security and Medicare figures it had just computed. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It set Massachusetts PFML to about $0, wrote a total of about $13,388 and submitted $13,385, below the $13,387.65 of Social Security and Medicare. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed Social Security ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53), named the Massachusetts PFML employee contribution (about $805 at 0.46%) and left it out, assuming the reference model does not include it, answering $13,387.65, federal tax alone. The engine does include it: the reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It first reached $14,192.66, the reference, with a 0.46% PFML employee rate, then switched to 0.604%: all of a 0.42% medical portion plus 40% of a 0.46% family portion. The engine uses 2026 rates of 0.18% family and 0.70% medical and counts all of the family rate and 40% of the medical, 0.46% of wages, the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; its PFML came out at $1,057.01 against the reference's $805.01." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It treated Massachusetts PFML as employer-side only and left it out, then submitted $12,318.65, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 sum of Social Security and Medicare. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said outright that it did not include any Massachusetts PFML contribution and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Massachusetts has no employee state payroll tax and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included a Massachusetts PFML employee share at 0.38% of wages, about $665, and rounded the total to $14,053. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied a 0.375% MA PFML employee rate ($656.26) instead of the 0.46% rate ($805.01). It also submitted $13,593.41, which differs from the $14,043.91 total stated in its own explanation." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It used a 0.44% MA PFML employee rate ($770.01) instead of 0.46% ($805.01), which put the total $35 short of $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included Massachusetts PFML at an estimated 0.318% of wages ($556.51), for $13,944.16. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, so the total is $248.50 under it." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only 6.2% Social Security plus 1.45% Medicare and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. Its $11,843 does not even equal 7.65% × $175,002 = $13,387.65, the result of the formula it described. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied SS and Medicare to $167,613, having subtracted the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums, when the payroll tax base is the full $175,002. It also used an estimated PFML of about $580 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It cut the FICA base to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premiums, when SS and Medicare apply to the full $175,002 ($10,850.12 and $2,537.53). It also used a 0.24% PFML rate ($402) instead of 0.46% ($805.01)." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included MA PFML at $765.01 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also miscomputed SS as $10,830 rather than 6.2% x $175,002 = $10,850.12, so the total came up $60 short." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reduced FICA wages to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums as pre-tax, when the engine's payroll tax base is the full $175,002, and it did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It named Social Security, Medicare and Massachusetts PFML contributions, but its $13,444 total is only about $56 above Social Security plus Medicare on full wages ($13,387.65), so on full wages it counted about $56 of PFML. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at Social Security plus Medicare, $13,387.65, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It built a 0.532% PFML employee rate by taking 40% of the entire 0.88% combined rate (0.352%) as the medical share and adding the 0.18% family share. The engine counts 40% of only the 0.70% medical rate plus the 0.18% family rate, 0.28% + 0.18% = 0.46%, the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; its PFML came out at $931 against the reference's $805.01." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Massachusetts has no mandatory employee payroll tax and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only Social Security and Medicare, submitting $13,389.37 rather than the $13,387.65 they come to, and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It wrongly claimed the wages exceed the $200,000 Additional Medicare Tax threshold ($175,002 does not) and submitted $5,420, less than half the $10,850.12 of Social Security tax alone, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"Its Social Security plus Medicare total of $13,387.65 matches the engine, but it estimated Massachusetts PFML withholding at $962.51, which is 0.55% of wages. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare, about $13,388, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied the combined 2.9% employer-plus-employee Medicare rate instead of the 1.45% employee rate, doubling Medicare to about $5,075, and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included Massachusetts PFML at 0.318% of wages ($556) and rounded the components to whole dollars, for $13,944. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It assumed there is no state payroll tax and applied only 7.65% FICA, rounded to $13,388. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It returned no payroll_tax value and no explanation. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,kimi-k3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied a 0.256% MA PFML employee rate ($448.01) instead of 0.46% ($805.01), which put the total $357 short." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It returned $0 with no reasoning, as though the head owed no employee payroll tax at all. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax modeled here and stopped at $13,387.65. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Massachusetts, totaled $13,387.65, and then submitted an unexplained $14,525.24 that contradicts that total. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It listed Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax, not Massachusetts PFML, and submitted $13,922. By its own formula the total is 7.65% × $175,002 = $13,387.65 with no Additional Medicare Tax. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." us,scenario_081,self_employment_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_081,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,reference_engine_defect,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its own work reached about $8,238: $164,602 of Part B at 5% ($8,230.10) plus $166 of interest and dividends at 5% ($8.30), which matches the correct total. It then added an unexplained ~$142 'rounding of components' and submitted $8,380. No Massachusetts rule supports that addition." us,scenario_081,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,reference_engine_defect,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the $4,400 exemption, the $4,000 rent deduction and the $2,000 payroll deduction correctly. However, it used the $1,080 short-term loss to wipe out the $166 of interest and dividends. The $56 of interest belongs in Part B income ($175,058) and the $110 of dividends stays taxable in Part A. Its answer is therefore missing $2.80 plus $5.51 of tax: $8,232.90 + $5.51 = $8,238.41." @@ -6756,48 +6756,48 @@ us,scenario_082,local_income_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,state_l us,scenario_082,local_income_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model calculated NYC head-of-household tax brackets on $79,254 of taxable income without any fact establishing NYC residence. New York State residence alone triggers no local income tax in this benchmark, yielding zero." us,scenario_082,local_income_tax,glm-5.2,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model explicitly assumed NYC residence because NYC is a New York locality with an income tax, contradicting the instruction that unlisted household facts are false. Its detailed NYC taxable-income, bracket, school-credit, and dependent-care-credit computation is inapplicable because no NYC location was provided." us,scenario_082,local_income_tax,inkling,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"The model treated the household as an NYC resident and applied NYC brackets and credit rules despite the prompt listing only New York State. Without a specified NYC residence, none of those local rules applies and the local-income-tax output is zero." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed federal FICA correctly at $7,664.92 but left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, calling them negligible or excluded. The output definition explicitly includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes, so $443.11 is missing." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Summed only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL contribution (0.432% capped at $411.91) and DBL contribution ($31.20), both of which the payroll_tax output includes." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Applied a made-up 0.62% NY PFL rate to the full $100,195 without the wage cap ($621.21), then added an unspecified plug for other NY withholdings. The 2026 PFL is 0.432% capped at $411.91 and DBL is $31.20, so NY payroll tax is overstated by about $197." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Correctly identified DBL at $31.20 but then dropped its own PFL estimate and replaced it with an unsupported $49.31. That gives only $80.51 of NY contributions instead of $443.11. The 2026 PFL rate is 0.432%, not the 2025 rate of 0.388%, and the $95,350.72 wage cap makes the PFL contribution $411.91." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Wrongly stated that New York has no mandatory employee payroll tax. It therefore left out the employee PFL contribution ($411.91 at the 2026 cap) and the DBL contribution ($31.20), reporting only the $7,664.92 federal FICA." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Asserted that NY imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax for this output and reported only rounded FICA ($7,665). The NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) employee contributions are mandatory and belong in payroll_tax." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Stopped at federal FICA ($7,664.92) on the claim that no NY employee payroll tax is modeled. NY PFL (0.432% capped at $411.91) and DBL ($0.60/week = $31.20) are both included in the payroll tax total." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Included DBL correctly at $31.20 but computed PFL with the 2025 parameters (0.388% on an ~$89,343 cap = $346.65). The 2026 parameters are 0.432% on a $95,350.72 cap, giving $411.91, so the total is short by $65.26." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Treated NY SDI/PFL as minimal and added an unsupported $129.39 estimate. The actual 2026 contributions are $411.91 for PFL (0.432% capped at the $95,350.72 wage base) plus $31.20 for DBL, so NY payroll tax is understated by about $314." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Declared that no NY payroll tax is modeled and reported only FICA of $7,664.92. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Subtracted the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages. Elective deferrals remain Social Security and Medicare wages under IRC §3121(v)(1)(A), so the base stays $100,195. It also asserted NY has no employee payroll tax, dropping PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20)." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Included NY DBL ($31.20) but left out the mandatory NY PFL employee contribution. In 2026 that is 0.432% of wages capped at $411.91, so the total is short by exactly that amount." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Used an incorrect NY PFL maximum of $369.68 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% × $95,350.72). It also left out the $31.20 NY DBL employee contribution." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Used the correct 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% but applied it to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the statewide average weekly wage cap of $95,350.72. That cap limits the contribution to $411.91, so the total is overstated by $20.93." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Included DBL ($31) but used a stale NY PFL figure of about $333 (the 2024 maximum of $333.25). The 2026 PFL maximum is $411.91 (0.432% on a $95,350.72 cap), so the total falls about $79 short." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate to wages ($7,665). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which are part of payroll_tax." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987. The payroll tax base is the full $100,195, so Social Security and Medicare come to $7,664.92. It also applied PFL to the reduced base at a stale rate ($294.62) instead of the 2026 capped $411.91." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Reduced FICA wages to $78,987 by subtracting the $21,208 ESI premium, which understates Social Security and Medicare by $1,622.42. It also used about $394 for PFL instead of $411.91 and left out the $31.20 NY DBL contribution." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Counted only employee Social Security and Medicare on gross wages ($7,664.92). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Computed FICA on $78,987 after subtracting the $21,208 ESI premium, instead of the full $100,195 wage base. That understates federal payroll tax by $1,622.42. Its NY PFL/DBL add-on of about $270 also falls short of the correct $443.11." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Treated the $21,208 ESI premium as reducing FICA wages to $78,987, but Social Security and Medicare apply to the full $100,195. Its NY SDI/PFL amount of about $333 also understates the correct $443.11 ($411.91 PFL + $31.20 DBL)." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Included DBL ($31.20) but computed PFL with the 2025 rate of 0.388% on a guessed $96,200 cap ($373.26). The 2026 rate is 0.432% on the $95,350.72 cap, giving $411.91, so the total is short by $38.65." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Asserted NY has no employee-side payroll tax, leaving out PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20). It also mis-added its own components: $6,212 + $1,453 is $7,665, not $7,765." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Asserted NY has no mandatory employee payroll tax and reported a rounded-down FICA of $7,660 (the exact figure is $7,664.92). It left out the NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Reported only federal Social Security and Medicare, under-rounded to $7,659 instead of $7,664.92. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Its NY add-on of $385.73 equals the 2025 PFL maximum ($354.53) plus DBL ($31.20). It used the 2025 cap instead of the 2026 PFL maximum of $411.91 (0.432% × $95,350.72), so the total is short by $57.38." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,Added the NY DBL contribution ($31.20) but left out the mandatory NY PFL employee contribution. In 2026 that is 0.432% of wages capped at $411.91. -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate ($7,664.92). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which the payroll_tax output includes." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Reported only Social Security and Medicare, and understated even that figure ($7,654 instead of $7,664.92). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions entirely." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Applied the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the $95,350.72 statewide average weekly wage cap. That cap limits the PFL contribution to $411.91, so the total is overstated by $20.93." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate ($7,665). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Subtracted the $21,208 ESI premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987, when Social Security and Medicare apply to the full $100,195. It also asserted NY has no employee payroll tax, dropping PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20)." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Used a stale NY PFL figure of about $367 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% on the $95,350.72 cap). It also stated that no other employee state payroll tax applies, which leaves out the $31.20 NY DBL contribution." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.7,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Reported only employee Social Security and Medicare, rounded to $7,665. It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Subtracted both the $21,208 ESI premium and the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages. Elective deferrals are FICA wages, and the payroll tax base is the full $100,195. It also left out NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20)." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,inkling,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"Included DBL (~$31) but estimated PFL at about $365 using outdated parameters. The 2026 PFL is 0.432% of wages capped at $95,350.72, which gives $411.91, so the total is short by about $47." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"Returned no value and no explanation for payroll_tax, so there is no answer to score. The correct derivation is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 NY PFL + $31.20 NY DBL = $8,108.03." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Computed federal FICA ($7,664.92, rounded to $7,665) and stopped there. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Summed only employee Social Security and Medicare ($7,665). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which the payroll_tax output includes." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,other,False,"Correctly found FICA of $7,664.92 and even reached a NY PFL estimate near the cap. It then subtracted an invented '~$-200' of NY deductions and reported $7,464.33, which is below FICA alone. NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) are added to FICA, never subtracted." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Explicitly excluded NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20), even though the output definition requires mandatory employee state payroll taxes. It also mis-added its own components: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 is $7,664.92, not $7,752.42." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed federal FICA at $7,664.92 and left out New York's PFL and disability contributions, calling them negligible and excluded. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It summed only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied a 0.62% New York PFL rate to the full $100,195 with no cap ($621.21), then added an unspecified amount for other New York withholdings, for $640 of state contributions. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL (0.432% of wages up to the cap) and $31.20 of DBL, or $443.11, so the model's state part is about $197 over it." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted DBL at $31.20 but dropped its own PFL estimate (0.388%, capped at about $354) for an unsupported $49.31, so it added only $80.51 of New York contributions. The reference counts the most the employer may collect: PFL at the 2026 rate of 0.432% up to the $411.91 cap, plus DBL of $31.20, or $443.11, for $8,108.03." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said New York has no mandatory employee payroll tax and reported only the $7,664.92 of federal FICA. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said New York imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax counted here and reported rounded FICA, $7,665. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It stopped at federal FICA, $7,664.92, on the assumption that no mandatory New York employee payroll tax is modeled. The engine does include New York's contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted DBL at $31.20 but computed PFL at 0.388% on a cap of about $89,343, $346.65, for $8,042.77. The reference counts the most the employer may collect at 2026 parameters, PFL of 0.432% of wages up to $411.91, so the total is $65.26 under it." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said New York's disability and PFL employee contributions are minimal and added an unsupported $129.39 estimate, for $7,794.31. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL (0.432% of wages up to the cap) and $31.20 of DBL, or $443.11, so the model's state part is about $314 under it." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said no New York payroll tax is modeled and reported only FICA, $7,664.92. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages ($100,014) and said New York has no mandatory employee state payroll taxes, for $7,651. The engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included New York's disability contribution ($31.20) but not PFL, for $7,696.12. The reference also counts PFL at the most the employer may collect, 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $411.91 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none of either." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It used a New York PFL maximum of $369.68 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 and counted no DBL, for $8,034.60. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, so the total is $73.43 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It used the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% but applied it to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the cap, which limits the most the employer may collect to $411.91. The total is therefore $20.93 over the reference." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included DBL ($31) but used a New York PFL figure of about $333, below the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% of wages up to that cap), so the total is about $79 under the reference." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate to wages, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"Subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987. The payroll tax base is the full $100,195, so Social Security and Medicare come to $7,664.92. It also put PFL at $294.62, which is 0.373% of the reduced base, against the 2026 maximum of $411.91 that the reference counts." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reduced FICA wages to $78,987 by subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium, which understates Social Security and Medicare by $1,622.42 ($6,042.50 against the engine's $7,664.92 on the full $100,195). It used about $394 for PFL and counted no DBL. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, for $8,108.03; the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted only employee Social Security and Medicare on gross wages, $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed FICA on $78,987 after subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium, instead of the full $100,195, which understates federal payroll tax by about $1,622. Its New York disability and PFL add-on of about $270 is under the $443.11 the reference counts, the most the employer may collect ($411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL); the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It treated the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium as reducing FICA wages to $78,987, but the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195. Its New York disability and PFL amount of about $333 is under the $443.11 the reference counts, the most the employer may collect ($411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL); the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included DBL ($31.20) but computed PFL with the 2025 rate of 0.388% on a guessed $96,200 cap ($373.26). The reference counts the most the employer may collect at the 2026 rate of 0.432%, up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $38.65 under it." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said New York has no employee-side state payroll tax and mis-added its own components: $6,212 + $1,453 is $7,665, not $7,765. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said New York has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and reported FICA rounded down to $7,660 (the engine's is $7,664.92). The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reported only federal Social Security and Medicare, under-rounded to $7,659 instead of $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"Its New York add-on of $385.73 equals the 2025 PFL maximum ($354.53) plus DBL ($31.20). Against the 2026 PFL maximum of $411.91, the most the employer may collect, the total is $57.38 under the reference." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It added New York's disability contribution ($31.20) but not PFL, for $7,696.12. The reference also counts PFL at the most the employer may collect, 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $411.91 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none of either." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate, $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reported only Social Security and Medicare and understated even that ($7,654 instead of $7,664.92), without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,gpt-6-astra,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the cap, which limits the most the employer may collect to $411.91. The total is therefore $20.93 over the reference." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987, when the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195, and it said New York has no employee payroll tax. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It counted New York PFL at about $367 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 and said no other employee state payroll tax applies, so it counted no DBL, for $8,032. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, so the total is about $76 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), rounded to $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted both the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium and the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages ($78,806), when the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195, and it did not mention New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It included DBL (about $31) but estimated PFL at about $365, below the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% of wages up to that cap), so the total is about $47 under the reference." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It returned no value and no explanation for payroll_tax, so there is no answer to score. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It computed federal FICA, $7,664.92, rounded to $7,665, and stopped there, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It summed only employee Social Security and Medicare, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It found FICA of $7,664.92 and at one point estimated New York PFL at about $431.88, then subtracted an invented '~$-200' of New York deductions and reported $7,464.33, below FICA alone. The reference adds New York's contributions rather than subtracting them: $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, the most the employer may collect, for $8,108.03; the law lets the employer collect less or none." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,"It said it included no mandatory employee state payroll tax and mis-added its own components: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 is $7,664.92, not $7,752.42. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." us,scenario_082,self_employment_tax,glm-5.2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_082,self_employment_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_082,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It subtracted a ~$396 NY child and dependent care credit as if it were nonrefundable, but New York's CDCC is refundable and excluded from this output. It also never added the $156.38 supplemental recapture tax that applies because NY AGI is above $107,650. Its ~$5,891 bracket tax on $105,454 is too high: the 2026 HOH schedule (3.9%/4.4%/5.15%/5.4%) gives about $5,446." @@ -8839,52 +8839,52 @@ us,scenario_112,snap,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,categorical_eligibility,False," us,scenario_112,snap,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,categorical_eligibility,False,"It counted farm rent to reach $1,737/month and failed a 130% limit of about $1,695, missing Texas's 165% BBCE limit. The reference's gross income is $1,576.92 without farm rent, net income of $1,269.19 passes, and the minimum allotment of $23.84/month is paid." us,scenario_112,snap,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,categorical_eligibility,False,"It correctly found that 30% of net income is more than the maximum, then threw that result out and substituted $3,576 by assuming a shelter deduction for which no housing costs were listed. With no shelter deduction, net income is $1,269.19, which is below the $1,304 limit, so the correct outcome is the one-person minimum allotment of $23.84/month, not a large benefit." us,scenario_112,snap,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,categorical_eligibility,False,"Its bare finding of ineligibility matches counting farm rent, which fails the net test. The reference's countable income leaves out farm rent, net income of $1,269.19 passes the 100% test, and the one-person minimum allotment of $23.84/month applies." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only $19,518. It left state income tax out of SALT ($4,064 instead of $9,431.59), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and counted $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, so taxable income came to $78,077 rather than $72,807.33. It then computed about $11,889 at the correct 2026 brackets but replaced that with $8,971 through an arbitrary 'bracket inflation' adjustment that no rule supports." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its structure is right (itemize, $4,106 senior deduction, $4,872 QBI, 2026 brackets), but it put only $3,524 of state income tax into SALT ($7,588 versus $9,431.59). It also built medical from the $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases while leaving out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium ($4,007 versus $4,441.86). Together these understate itemized deductions by about $2,277, so taxable income rises to $75,085 and tax rises by 22% of that gap." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It left the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security out of income, invented a $28,300 aged standard deduction, used 2024 brackets, and dropped the QBI and senior deductions. It then added $336 of Medicare payroll tax and an arbitrary $2,000 'safe harbor' adjustment to reach $10,268. Neither payroll tax nor withholding belongs in income tax before refundable credits; the correct tax comes from $72,807.33 of taxable income after itemizing $24,787.23." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,other,False,"Its intermediate work entered SALT at the $10,000 cap instead of the $9,431.59 actually paid, dropped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down on MAGI above $75,000 (correct amount $4,105.65), reaching about $10,711. It then submitted $5,489, a figure that matches none of the steps it computed." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It imputed about $4,500 of mortgage interest from the loan balance although no interest was listed, so mortgage interest is $0. It also left state income tax out of SALT, skipped the charitable floor, and omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It computed $11,802 and then trimmed it to $11,210 with an unexplained 'rounding' adjustment instead of taxing the correct $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted half of a self-employment tax (~$1,721) that does not exist here: the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax. It also undercounted itemized deductions (no state income tax in SALT; medical limited to $10,000 without the $2,434.80 Part B premium), so it chose the standard deduction with an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. It then cut its own ~$11,900 estimate to $6,900 by citing nonrefundable credits this household does not have." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It followed the correct structure but put only about $3,555 of state income tax into SALT ($7,618.50 versus $9,431.59). It also computed medical at $4,007 by counting the $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium (correct $4,441.86). Itemized deductions came out $2,247.63 short ($22,539.60 vs $24,787.23), and 22% of that gap is exactly its $494.49 overstatement." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It explicitly set aside the OBBBA senior deduction ($4,105.65 after phase-down), imputed $6,693 of mortgage interest from the loan balance even though no interest was listed, left state income tax out of SALT, and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also used inflation-projected 2025 brackets (12% ending near $49,784) instead of the 2026 thresholds of $12,400 and $50,400, ending at $75,490 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction entirely. It itemized only $19,518, with SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax (no state income tax; correct SALT $9,431.59) and no 0.5% charitable floor, giving $82,183 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33. It also used guessed brackets (10% to $12,150, 12% to $49,400) instead of 2026's $12,400 and $50,400." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the senior deduction ($4,106), QBI ($4,872), and 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized total of about $21,188 is $3,599 below the correct $24,787.23. The correct components are charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The resulting $76,407 of taxable income, instead of $72,807.33, adds about $792 of tax at 22%." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721) from AGI, although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $17,645 (no state income tax in SALT, no 0.5% charitable floor, medical without the $2,434.80 Part B premium). Its taxable income of $82,357 is about $9,550 above the correct $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It also understated state income tax in SALT ($7,615.53 vs $9,431.59) and held medical to $2,007.04 by ignoring the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium (correct $4,441.86). On top of that it used wrong brackets (10% to $12,200, 12% to $49,400 instead of $12,400 and $50,400), producing $80,630.83 of taxable income." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied the pre-TCJA sunset schedule, with a $5,350 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA rate structure permanent, so for 2026 personal exemptions stay at zero and the brackets are 10%/12%/22%. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $79,372.69 of taxable income implies itemized deductions of about $22,328 plus QBI, with no senior deduction. It therefore omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers receive, and understated itemized deductions by about $2,460 against the correct $24,787.23. The resulting $6,565 excess over the correct $72,807.33 of taxable income drives its higher tax." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It used pre-TCJA law, with a $5,000 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent with no personal exemption. It also dropped the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Finally, it subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721), although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $110,094 of gross income counts 100% of the $23,328 of Social Security instead of the 85% maximum ($19,828.80) and ignores the $22 capital loss. Its roughly $81,300 of taxable income omits the $4,105.65 senior deduction and understates itemized deductions (correct $24,787.23). Its $13,919 also exceeds the 2026-bracket tax on $81,300 (about $12,598), so it applied the wrong rate schedule as well." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It computed tax under 'pre-TCJA' 2026 law with personal exemptions, but OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero personal exemption permanent. Its derivation also includes neither the $4,872.35 QBI deduction nor the $4,105.65 senior deduction. The correct answer is the 10%/12%/22% tax on $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied the TCJA sunset, with a $5,050 personal exemption and the pre-TCJA 'sunset' brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule permanent with no personal exemption. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $19,256 versus the correct $24,787.23; SALT alone is $9,431.59 because it includes $5,367.59 of state income tax." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation. The correct computation is $106,572.56 AGI less $24,787.23 itemized, $4,872.35 QBI and $4,105.65 senior deductions, which leaves $72,807.33 taxed at $10,729.61. Its $9,334 matches about $66,460 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, so it overstated total deductions by roughly $6,350." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 reduced by 6% of MAGI over $75,000, to $4,105.65), which itemizers also claim. Its itemized total of $22,018.04 also falls $2,769 short of the correct $24,787.23. Together these leave taxable income at $79,682.36, $6,875 above the correct $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction instead of itemizing, although itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59, medical $4,441.86). It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its $13,104.09 matches the tax on about $83,550 of taxable income (AGI less $18,150 and QBI only), $10,743 above the correct $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted both the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax instead of $9,431.59, no 0.5% charitable floor, and $2,007 of medical that leaves out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That puts taxable income near $89,055 instead of $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It asserted that QBI and the TCJA rates expired after 2025, so it applied a $5,500 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made both the TCJA rate structure and the §199A deduction permanent, so the $4,872.35 QBI deduction applies, personal exemptions are zero, and the brackets are 10%/12%/22%. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518 by excluding state income tax from SALT ($4,064 vs $9,431.59), skipping the 0.5% charitable floor, and limiting medical to $2,007 without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Its $84,183 of taxable income is $11,376 above the correct $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the standard deduction and age-65 add-on wipe out all taxable income, ignoring the $106,572.56 of AGI from wages, partnership income, pension, IRA and 85% of Social Security. Even after $33,765.23 of deductions, $72,807.33 of taxable income remains and generates $10,729.61 at the 2026 brackets." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the filer as living mainly on Social Security with modest taxable income. That overlooks $86,744 of wage, partnership, pension, IRA and interest income, which makes 85% of benefits taxable and puts AGI at $106,572.56. After $33,765.23 of total deductions, $72,807.33 remains taxable at rates up to 22%." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied the TCJA sunset, with a personal exemption and the pre-2018 brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions stay at zero in 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its itemized total was only $17,518 (no state income tax in SALT, no Part B premium in medical, no 0.5% charitable floor)." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted half of a self-employment tax that does not exist, since the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here, and it took the standard-deduction path instead of itemizing $24,787.23. Its $67,020 of taxable income is $5,787 below the correct $72,807.33, so its total deductions were overstated even though it chose the smaller deduction path." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, which reproduces the standard-deduction alternative of $11,969.80. Itemized deductions of $24,787.23 exceed that $19,150: charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 (real estate plus state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). Itemizing cuts tax by $1,240.19." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $11,540 matches about $76,490 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, $3,684 above the correct $72,807.33. That means its itemized deductions fell about $3,684 short of the correct $24,787.23, which is charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium)." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the phased senior deduction ($4,105.63), QBI ($4,872.40), and 2026 brackets correctly but itemized only $20,639.33. With charitable at about $10,914 after the floor, its SALT plus medical comes to roughly $9,725, versus the correct $13,873.45 (SALT $9,431.59 including $5,367.59 of state income tax; medical $4,441.86 including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The $4,148 shortfall taxed at 22% is exactly its $912.59 overstatement." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. Its implied itemized deductions of about $21,026 also fall $3,761 short of the correct $24,787.23. Taxable income of $80,675 instead of $72,807.33 produces its $1,731 overstatement at 22%." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It stated AGI as $96,572.80, dropping $10,000 from the $106,572.80 its own listed income sums to. That also inflated the senior deduction to $4,705.63, when the correct phase-down on $106,572.56 of MAGI gives $4,105.65. It then took the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the phased senior deduction, the $4,872.40 QBI deduction, and the 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized deductions come to about $20,640 against the correct $24,787.23. The correct itemized total is charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, with OTC purchases excluded). The $4,147 shortfall taxed at 22% is its $912.48 overstatement." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation. The correct computation reaches $72,807.33 of taxable income and $10,729.61 of tax, while its $10,234 matches about $70,555 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets. It therefore claimed roughly $2,250 more deductions than the correct $33,765.23 (itemized $24,787.23, QBI $4,872.35, senior $4,105.65)." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,468 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent with no personal exemption for 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It assumed the TCJA sunset took effect, using a $5,300 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets and declaring QBI expired. OBBBA made both the TCJA rate schedule and the §199A deduction permanent. As a result it dropped the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction, and taxed $78,246 at the wrong rates." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction on the belief that it beats itemizing, but itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 including state income tax, medical $4,441.86 including the Medicare Part B premium). Even on the standard path it omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,444.77 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It also put only $2,746 of state income tax into SALT ($6,810 versus $9,431.59) and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. Taxable income of $79,437 instead of $72,807.33 drives its higher tax." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It applied pre-TCJA brackets and a $5,300 personal exemption, although OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions remain zero. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Finally, it cut AGI to $104,852 by subtracting half of a self-employment tax the partnership/S-corp income does not incur." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It itemized only $19,518. It put no state income tax into SALT ($4,064, where the engine's SALT is $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and counted the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, so taxable income came to $78,077 rather than $72,807.33. It then computed about $11,889 at the correct 2026 brackets but replaced that with $8,971 through an arbitrary 'bracket inflation' adjustment that no rule supports." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its structure matches the engine's (itemize, $4,106 senior deduction, $4,872 QBI, 2026 brackets), but it put its own $3,524 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,588), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59). It also built medical from the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, while leaving out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,007 versus the engine's $4,441.86). Together these put itemized deductions about $2,277 below the engine's, so taxable income rises to $75,085 and tax rises by about 22% of that gap." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It left the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security out of income, invented a $28,300 aged standard deduction, used 2024 brackets, and dropped the QBI and senior deductions. It then added $336 of Medicare payroll tax and an arbitrary $2,000 'safe harbor' adjustment to reach $10,268. Neither payroll tax nor withholding belongs in income tax before refundable credits; the engine's tax comes from $72,807.33 of taxable income after itemizing $24,787.23." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its intermediate work entered SALT at the $10,000 cap although it counted only the $4,064 real estate tax (the engine's SALT is $9,431.59, which includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), dropped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down on MAGI above $75,000 (correct amount $4,105.65), reaching about $10,711. It then submitted $5,489, a figure that matches none of the steps it computed." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It imputed about $4,500 of mortgage interest from the loan balance although no interest was listed, so mortgage interest is $0. It also put no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, skipped the charitable floor, and omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It computed $11,802 and then trimmed it to $11,210 with an unexplained 'rounding' adjustment instead of taxing the engine's $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted half of a self-employment tax (~$1,721) that does not exist here: the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax. It itemized only about $17,650, with no state income tax in SALT and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, and chose the standard deduction with an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. The engine itemizes $24,787.23, counting a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical, neither of which the prompt lists; without both, the engine also takes the standard deduction. The model then cut its own ~$11,900 estimate to $6,900 by citing nonrefundable credits this household does not have." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It followed the engine's structure but put its own $3,554.50 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,618.50), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59). It also computed medical at $4,007 by counting the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes (the engine's $4,441.86). Itemized deductions came out $2,247.63 below the engine's ($22,539.60 vs $24,787.23), and 22% of that gap matches the $494.49 by which the model's answer exceeds the engine's $10,729.61." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It explicitly set aside the OBBBA senior deduction ($4,105.65 after phase-down), imputed $6,693 of mortgage interest from the loan balance even though no interest was listed, put no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also used inflation-projected 2025 brackets (12% ending near $49,784) instead of the 2026 thresholds of $12,400 and $50,400, ending at $75,490 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction entirely. It itemized only $19,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax (the engine's SALT is $9,431.59, which includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), no 0.5% charitable floor, and $4,007 of medical that counts the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. That gave $82,183 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33. It also used guessed brackets (10% to $12,150, 12% to $49,400) instead of 2026's $12,400 and $50,400." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the senior deduction ($4,106), QBI ($4,872), and 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized total of about $21,188 is $3,599 below the engine's $24,787.23. The engine's components are charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld), and medical $4,441.86 (including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes). The resulting $76,407 of taxable income, instead of $72,807.33, adds about $792 of tax at 22%." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721) from AGI, although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $17,645: no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate; no 0.5% charitable floor; and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The model's taxable income of $82,357 is about $9,550 above the engine's $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It also put its own $3,551.53 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,615.53), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59), and held medical to $2,007.04, without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes (the engine's $4,441.86). On top of that it used wrong brackets (10% to $12,200, 12% to $49,400 instead of $12,400 and $50,400), producing $80,630.83 of taxable income." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the pre-TCJA sunset schedule, with a $5,350 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA rate structure permanent, so for 2026 personal exemptions stay at zero and the brackets are 10%/12%/22%. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $79,372.69 of taxable income implies itemized deductions of about $22,328 plus QBI, with no senior deduction. It therefore omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers receive, and itemized about $2,460 less than the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The resulting $6,565 excess over the engine's $72,807.33 of taxable income drives the model's higher tax." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used pre-TCJA law, with a $5,000 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent with no personal exemption. It also dropped the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Finally, it subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721), although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $110,094 of gross income counts 100% of the $23,328 of Social Security instead of the 85% maximum ($19,828.80) and ignores the $22 capital loss. Its roughly $81,300 of taxable income omits the $4,105.65 senior deduction, and the itemized deductions it lists (real estate taxes, charitable donations, medical expenses) include no state income tax; the engine itemizes $24,787.23, with a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical. The model's $13,919 also exceeds the 2026-bracket tax on $81,300 (about $12,598), so it applied the wrong rate schedule as well." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed tax under 'pre-TCJA' 2026 law with personal exemptions, but OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero personal exemption permanent. Its derivation also includes neither the $4,872.35 QBI deduction nor the $4,105.65 senior deduction. The engine taxes $72,807.33 at 10%/12%/22%, for $10,729.61." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the TCJA sunset, with a $5,050 personal exemption and the pre-TCJA 'sunset' brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule permanent with no personal exemption. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $19,256 versus the engine's $24,787.23; the engine's SALT alone is $9,431.59 because the engine adds a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate to the $4,064.29 real estate tax." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation. The engine's computation is $106,572.56 AGI less $24,787.23 itemized, $4,872.35 QBI and $4,105.65 senior deductions, which leaves $72,807.33 taxed at $10,729.61. The model's $9,334 matches about $66,460 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, so it overstated total deductions by roughly $6,350." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 reduced by 6% of MAGI over $75,000, to $4,105.65), which itemizers also claim. Its itemized total of $22,018.04 also falls $2,769 short of the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Together these leave the model's taxable income at $79,682.36, $6,875 above the engine's $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction instead of itemizing as the engine does: the engine's itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 with an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The model also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its $13,104.09 is about $11 above the $13,093.05 tax on $83,550.21 of taxable income (AGI less $18,150 and QBI only), which is $10,742.88 above the engine's $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted both the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59 in all); no 0.5% charitable floor; and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That puts taxable income near $89,055 instead of $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It asserted that QBI and the TCJA rates expired after 2025, so it applied a $5,500 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made both the TCJA rate structure and the §199A deduction permanent, so the $4,872.35 QBI deduction applies, personal exemptions are zero, and the brackets are 10%/12%/22%. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518, with no state income tax in SALT ($4,064, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate for $9,431.59), no 0.5% charitable floor, and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The model's $84,183 of taxable income is $11,376 above the engine's $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the standard deduction and age-65 add-on wipe out all taxable income, ignoring the $106,572.56 of AGI from wages, partnership income, pension, IRA and 85% of Social Security. Even after $33,765.23 of deductions, $72,807.33 of taxable income remains and generates $10,729.61 at the 2026 brackets." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the filer as living mainly on Social Security with modest taxable income. That overlooks $86,744 of wage, partnership, pension, IRA and interest income, which makes 85% of benefits taxable and puts AGI at $106,572.56. After $33,765.23 of total deductions, $72,807.33 remains taxable at rates up to 22%." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the TCJA sunset, with a personal exemption and the pre-2018 brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions stay at zero in 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its itemized total was only about $17,518, which matches no state income tax in SALT, no 0.5% charitable floor and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone; the engine's $24,787.23 adds a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate to SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium to medical." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It deducted half of a self-employment tax that does not exist, since the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here, and it took the standard-deduction path instead of itemizing $24,787.23 as the engine does. Its $67,020 of taxable income is $5,787 below the engine's $72,807.33, so its total deductions exceeded the engine's even though it chose the path with smaller deductions in the engine." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, with the senior and QBI deductions, for about $78,445 of taxable income, which reproduces the engine's standard-deduction result: $11,969.80 on $78,444.56. The engine gives that answer when it counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses. With both, the engine itemizes $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59, medical $4,441.86), which exceeds the $19,150 and cuts tax by $1,240.19 to $10,729.61." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $11,540 matches about $76,490 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, $3,684 above the engine's $72,807.33. The model's explanation gives no figures; if its other deductions match the engine's, its itemized deductions fell about $3,684 short of the engine's $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), and medical $4,441.86 (including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes)." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the phased senior deduction ($4,105.63), QBI ($4,872.40), and 2026 brackets correctly but itemized only $20,639.33 after the charitable floor. That matches the engine's $20,639.28 with no Medicare Part B premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT, and the model's $11,642.20 matches the engine's $11,642.16 there. The reference instead counts a $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine imputes (medical $4,441.86) and puts the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT ($9,431.59), for $24,787.23; the $4,147.90 gap taxed at 22% ($912.54) accounts for the $912.59 by which the model's answer exceeds the reference." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. Its implied itemized deductions of about $21,026 also fall $3,761 short of the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Taxable income of $80,675 instead of $72,807.33 produces the model's $1,731 excess over the engine's tax at 22%." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It stated AGI as $96,572.80, about $10,000 below the engine's $106,572.56. That also inflated the senior deduction to $4,705.63, when the correct phase-down on $106,572.56 of MAGI gives $4,105.65. It then took the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the phased senior deduction, the $4,872.40 QBI deduction, and the 2026 brackets correctly and gave no itemized figure. Its $11,642.09 matches the engine's $11,642.16 with no Medicare Part B premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT, where itemized deductions are $20,639.28. The reference's itemized total is $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus a $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine imputes; the engine does not count OTC purchases). The model's answer exceeds the reference by $912.48, 22% of about $4,148." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It gave no derivation. The engine's computation reaches $72,807.33 of taxable income and $10,729.61 of tax, while the model's $10,234 matches about $70,555 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets. The model therefore claimed roughly $2,250 more deductions than the engine's $33,765.23 (itemized $24,787.23, QBI $4,872.35, senior $4,105.65)." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,468 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent with no personal exemption for 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed the TCJA sunset took effect, using a $5,300 personal exemption and 10%/15%/25% brackets and declaring QBI expired. OBBBA made both the TCJA rate schedule and the §199A deduction permanent. As a result it dropped the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction, and taxed $78,246 at the wrong rates." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction on the belief that it beats itemizing, but in the engine itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 with an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). Even on the standard path the model omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,444.77 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It also put its own $2,746 Virginia tax into SALT ($6,810), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and built its $4,007 of medical by counting the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. Taxable income of $79,437 instead of $72,807.33 drives its higher tax." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied pre-TCJA brackets and a $5,300 personal exemption, although OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions remain zero. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Finally, it cut AGI to $104,852 by subtracting half of a self-employment tax the partnership/S-corp income does not incur." us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It returned no value and no explanation for federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, so there was no answer to score." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed itemized deductions of only $17,518 by excluding state income tax from SALT ($4,064 instead of $9,431.59), skipping the 0.5% charitable floor, and limiting medical to $2,007 without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That led it to choose the standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. That path yields $11,969.80, which is $1,240.19 more than itemizing the correct $24,787.23." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It acknowledged that taxable income is positive and that itemizing beats the standard deduction, then reported $0 without identifying any credit. With AGI of $106,572.56 and total deductions of $33,765.23, taxable income is $72,807.33, which produces $10,729.61 at the 2026 brackets with no nonrefundable credit to offset it." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It estimated itemized deductions at about $19,500 and chose the standard deduction, but itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 including $5,367.59 of state income tax, medical $4,441.86 including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). On its standard path it also omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,445 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It left Social Security out of income, although 85% ($19,828.80) is taxable. It also used an outdated $15,750 aged standard deduction and skipped both itemizing and the senior deduction. Its reported $15,654 is not even the tax on its own $66,122 of taxable income, which the 2026 brackets tax at about $9,258." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It stated AGI as $80,164 although its own listed items sum to $106,572.80, cut QBI to $3,550, and took a $20,400 standard deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23. It then subtracted about $2,471 from its $7,761.45 tax by treating the QBI deduction and charitable amounts as nonrefundable credits, which they are not." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It compared itemized deductions of $17,518 with the $18,150 standard deduction and took the standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, with the phased senior and QBI deductions. The $17,518 matches the $4,064 real estate tax with no state income tax in SALT, charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The model's $11,969.85 matches the engine's $11,969.80 when the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses. With both, the engine itemizes $24,787.23 and gets $10,729.61, $1,240.19 less." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It acknowledged that taxable income is positive and that itemizing beats the standard deduction, then reported $0 without identifying any credit. With AGI of $106,572.56 and total deductions of $33,765.23, taxable income is $72,807.33, which produces $10,729.61 at the 2026 brackets with no nonrefundable credit to offset it." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It estimated itemized deductions at about $19,500 and chose the standard deduction, but in the engine itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes). On its own standard path the model also omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,445 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It left Social Security out of income, although 85% ($19,828.80) is taxable. It also used an outdated $15,750 aged standard deduction and skipped both itemizing and the senior deduction. Its reported $15,654 is not even the tax on its own $66,122 of taxable income, which the 2026 brackets tax at about $9,258." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It stated AGI as $80,164 although its own listed items sum to $106,572.80, cut QBI to $3,550, and took a $20,400 standard deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23. It then subtracted about $2,471 from its $7,761.45 tax by treating the QBI deduction and charitable amounts as nonrefundable credits, which they are not." us,scenario_114,federal_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,credit_phaseout,False,"The model applied the childless EITC phaseout using only $22,700 of wages and ignored the rule requiring the greater of earned income or adjusted gross income. The filer’s other taxable income raises AGI beyond the childless EITC phaseout ceiling, yielding EITC of $0 rather than $295." us,scenario_114,federal_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"The model supplied no numeric output or explanation for federal_refundable_credits, so it failed the required submission contract." us,scenario_114,payroll_tax,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"The model correctly calculated both employee payroll-tax components and correctly excluded self-employment tax, but submitted $3,470.30 instead of their $1,736.55 sum. Its answer effectively duplicates the employee payroll-tax total despite its own reasoning identifying no additional component." @@ -8909,52 +8909,52 @@ us,scenario_114,self_employment_tax,inkling,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Tr us,scenario_114,self_employment_tax,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"The model gave no self_employment_tax value and no explanation, so there is no substantive calculation to assess. The correct output is $0 because the household has no net earnings from self-employment." us,scenario_114,self_employment_tax,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Treated the $24,362 partnership/S-corp income as SE income and computed $3,442.62. It then submitted an unexplained $3,459.40. The pass-through income is not net earnings from self-employment, so SE tax is $0." us,scenario_114,self_employment_tax,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,"Treated the $24,362 partnership/S-corp income as net SE income, which is the core error because it is not SE earnings, so SE tax is $0. It also added a made-up 'additional Medicare-equivalent portion above the Social Security wage base'. No income here comes near that base, and this pushed its answer to $3,486.63." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,llm_error,other,False,"Its own path got taxable income of $66,296 and tax of about $3,555, but it then submitted $2,597, an unexplained cut of about $958 with no rule behind it. That path also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions at $19,518 instead of $19,419.94. Fixing those gives taxable income of $65,593.83 and tax of $3,514.15." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It phased out the age deduction from the $75,000 married-joint threshold and kept $256. For a single filer the threshold is $50,000, and AFAGI of $86,744 wipes the $12,000 deduction out entirely. It also put itemized deductions at $18,985 by applying a 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, $435 below the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, so its taxable income of $65,773 ends up $179 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It shrank $86,744 of non-Social Security income to an 'AGI' of $27,752 and applied a $28,000 federal-style standard deduction. It then claimed zero tax, even though Virginia's 2% bracket starts at the first dollar. The correct base is VA AGI of $86,743.77, minus $19,419.94 itemized deductions and $1,730 exemptions, which leaves $65,593.83 taxable." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,other,False,"Its reasoning got $4,227, but it submitted $1,854, which nothing in its derivation supports. Even the $4,227 path is wrong: it used an $8,750 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions (the filer itemizes federally), and it left out the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed tax with the $8,500 standard deduction and only the $930 exemption, then vaguely 'adjusted for itemizing' to $4,014. That figure implies taxable income of about $74,300, meaning total deductions of only about $12,450. The correct figure is $21,149.94 of deductions ($19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions); it never computed the itemized total and dropped the $800 aged exemption." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94, which gave taxable income of about $76,500. It then took about $281 off the tax as 'personal exemption credits'. Virginia's $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions are subtractions from taxable income, not credits." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,llm_error,age_disability,False,"It took only the $930 personal exemption and left out the $800 Virginia exemption for a filer 65 or older. It also used $19,518 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94. Together these put taxable income at $66,296 instead of $65,593.83, so its tax is about $40 high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions the filer qualifies for as a federal itemizer. It then subtracted the $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions dollar-for-dollar from tax as credits. They actually reduce taxable income, where they are worth only about $99 at the 5.75% rate." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,llm_error,age_disability,False,"It allowed the full $12,000 age deduction, but for a single filer it drops $1 for each $1 of AFAGI above $50,000, so AFAGI of $86,744 eliminates it. It also left out the $1,730 in exemptions and then cut its own $2,947.50 result to $2,450 with no supporting step." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It put itemized deductions at $17,518 by counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94. It also took only the $930 exemption without the $800 age-65 exemption, so taxable income came out at $68,296 instead of $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It understated federal AGI at $104,874 instead of $106,573. It also applied a roughly $4,800 standard deduction plus an $800 'aged addition' instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions, which pushed taxable income to $78,515 instead of $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,llm_error,age_disability,False,"It subtracted the full $12,000 age deduction, but single-filer AFAGI of $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold, so the deduction is zero. It also used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $1,730 in exemptions. Its $66,244 taxable income is close to the correct figure only because these errors offset." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Every step matches the correct derivation (Social Security subtraction, zero age deduction, $1,730 exemptions, brackets) except the itemized total. It used $19,518.04 of Virginia itemized deductions, $98.10 more than the $19,419.94 allowed, which lowers taxable income to $65,495.96 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by $5.63." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It computed Virginia taxable income from full federal AGI of $106,572.80 without subtracting the $19,828.80 of federally taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts. It also used $17,518 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94 and left out the $800 age-65 exemption." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It overstated itemized deductions at $23,948.60, which is $4,528.66 more than the $19,419.94 allowed. It took only the $800 aged exemption and dropped the $930 personal exemption. Its stated taxable income of $60,294.40 does not even match its own inputs ($86,744 − $23,948.60 − $800 = $61,995.40)." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $4,180 implies taxable income of about $77,170. That matches VA AGI of $86,744 minus a roughly $8,500–8,750 standard deduction and a single $930 exemption. The correct deductions are $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions plus $1,730 of personal and age exemptions, which leave $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $4,180 would be the standard-deduction path; its actual $3,726 implies taxable income of about $69,280, meaning only about $17,470 was deducted from VA AGI of $86,744 instead of $21,149.94. That shortfall matches a $17,518 itemized total (counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses) with the $1,730 in exemptions left out." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $15,511 of itemized deductions covers only charitable gifts and real estate taxes and leaves out the medical expense deduction. That deduction is the $12,000 of medical costs above the 7.5%-of-AGI floor and is part of the $19,419.94 total. It also used a $1,600 exemption instead of Virginia's $930 personal plus $800 age-65 exemptions ($1,730)." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its $5,617 implies taxable income of about $102,200. That is federal AGI of $106,573 with no $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction and only about a $4,400 deduction. The correct steps are to subtract Social Security, then $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, leaving $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed the medical deduction on the $10,000 of other medical expenses only and left out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. That gave $17,518.04 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94. Taxable income came out at $67,495.96 instead of $65,593.83, so the tax is $109 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $3,623.52 matches itemized deductions of $17,518.04, where the medical deduction counts only the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income is $1,902 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, with the medical deduction built from the $10,000 of other medical expenses only and the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses left out. Against the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, that makes taxable income $67,496 instead of $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,llm_error,other,False,"Its described path ($106,573 − $19,829 − $9,000 standard deduction − $930) gives about $76,800 of taxable income and about $4,200 of tax. It instead submitted $14,036.62, which implies roughly $248,000 of taxable income, far more than the household's total income. The path itself also wrongly uses the standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and invents a pension deduction." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions and counted a $930 age exemption instead of $800. It also made arithmetic errors: $106,573 − $19,829 comes out as $87,744 instead of $86,744. It then computed tax as $270 plus 5.75% of the amount over $8,000 instead of $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the standard deduction and exemptions shelter all income. After the Social Security subtraction, VA AGI is still $86,743.77, and $19,419.94 of itemized deductions plus $1,730 of exemptions leave $65,593.83 taxable, which produces $3,514.15 of tax." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated retirement income as largely sheltered, but Virginia subtracts only Social Security. The $30,000 pension and $9,600 IRA distributions stay fully taxable, and the $12,000 age deduction is fully phased out at AFAGI of $86,744. That leaves $65,593.83 of taxable income after itemized deductions and exemptions, not $0." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, computing the medical deduction from the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,llm_error,age_disability,False,"It applied the $12,000 age deduction as 'available'. For a single filer it is reduced $1 for $1 above $50,000 of AFAGI, so $86,744 of AFAGI eliminates it. That pushed taxable income down to about $51,647 instead of $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used an $8,750 standard deduction and only the $930 personal exemption. The filer itemizes federally, so Virginia allows $19,419.94 of itemized deductions plus both the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions. Its taxable income of $77,064 is $11,470 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"Its $4,658 implies taxable income of about $85,490. That is what results from taking about $21,000 of itemized deductions and exemptions from federal AGI of $106,573 without first subtracting the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It put itemized deductions at $16,985.18 by applying a 0.5%-of-AGI floor to charitable gifts and counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income of $68,028.82 is $2,435 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $3,397 implies taxable income of about $63,560. That is about $2,035 below the correct $65,593.83, which means it overstated itemized deductions beyond the $19,419.94 allowed, while correctly subtracting Social Security and taking the $1,730 of exemptions." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its taxable income of about $57,229 means roughly $29,500 was deducted from VA AGI instead of $21,149.94. That matches deducting all $12,000 of medical expenses without the 7.5%-of-AGI floor, which limits the medical deduction to about $4,000 of the $19,419.94 itemized total." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $16,985.18 of itemized deductions, applying a 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor and counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses, instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction. Its taxable income is $68,028.82 instead of $65,593.83, and it adds another $0.50 arithmetic slip on top." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It asserted the standard deduction and exemptions offset all tax. After the Social Security subtraction, VA AGI is still $86,743.77, and deductions of $19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions leave $65,593.83 taxable, which yields $3,514.15." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of Virginia itemized deductions, with the medical deduction built from the $10,000 of other medical expenses and the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses left out, instead of $19,419.94. Its taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the correct $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Everything matches the correct derivation except the itemized total. It used $19,518 of itemized deductions, $98 more than the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, which lowers taxable income to $65,496 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by about $5." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and so used Virginia's $8,500 standard deduction. In fact, $11,447 of charitable gifts, $4,064 of real estate taxes and the medical deduction make the filer a federal itemizer, so Virginia allows $19,419.94 of itemized deductions. Its taxable income of $76,514 is $10,920 too high." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,"It taxed income above $17,000 at 5.3% instead of Virginia's 5.75% top rate. It also subtracted the $12,000 age deduction, which is fully phased out at a single filer's AFAGI of $86,744, and left out the $1,730 of personal and aged exemptions." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its own inputs ($86,744 − $19,647 itemized − $930) give $66,167, yet it taxed $64,446, which is $1,148 below the correct $65,593.83. It also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions compared with $19,419.94." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its own path got taxable income of $66,296 and tax of about $3,555, but it then submitted $2,597, an unexplained cut of about $958 with no rule behind it. That path also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and put itemized deductions at $19,518 instead of the engine's $19,419.94; with the engine's figures, taxable income is $65,593.83 and tax $3,514.15." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-fable-5.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It phased out the age deduction from the $75,000 married-joint threshold and kept $256. For a single filer the threshold is $50,000, and AFAGI of $86,744 wipes the $12,000 deduction out entirely. Its $18,985 of itemized deductions applies the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, as the engine does, but its federal explanation builds medical from $12,000, counting the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine leaves out, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,007 against $4,441.86). That leaves it $435 below the engine's $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income of $65,773 ends up $179 above the engine's." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-haiku-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It shrank $86,744 of non-Social Security income to an 'AGI' of $27,752 and applied a $28,000 federal-style standard deduction. It then claimed zero tax, even though Virginia's 2% bracket starts at the first dollar. Its base should be VA AGI of $86,743.77; the engine then subtracts $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, which leaves $65,593.83 taxable." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its reasoning got $4,227, but it submitted $1,854, which nothing in its derivation supports. Even the $4,227 path is wrong: it used an $8,750 standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions (in the engine the filer itemizes federally), and it left out the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-4.8,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed tax with the $8,500 standard deduction and only the $930 exemption, then vaguely 'adjusted for itemizing' to $4,014. That figure implies taxable income of about $74,300, meaning total deductions of only about $12,450. The engine deducts $21,149.94 ($19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions); the model never computed the itemized total and dropped the $800 aged exemption." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94, which gave taxable income of about $76,500. It then took about $281 off the tax as 'personal exemption credits'. Virginia's $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions are subtractions from taxable income, not credits." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-opus-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took only the $930 personal exemption and left out the $800 Virginia exemption for a filer 65 or older. It also used $19,518 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94. Together these put taxable income at $66,296 instead of $65,593.83, so its tax is about $40 high." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions (in the engine the filer itemizes federally). It then subtracted the $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions dollar-for-dollar from tax as credits. They actually reduce taxable income, where they are worth only about $99 at the 5.75% rate." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It allowed the full $12,000 age deduction, but for a single filer it drops $1 for each $1 of AFAGI above $50,000, so AFAGI of $86,744 eliminates it. It also left out the $1,730 in exemptions and then cut its own $2,947.50 result to $2,450 with no supporting step." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,claude-sonnet-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its itemized deductions of about $17,518 match charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor ($11,446.65), the $4,064.29 real estate tax and $2,007.06 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor ($10,913.78) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model also took only the $930 exemption without the $800 age-65 exemption, so its taxable income came out at $68,296 instead of $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-flash-0731,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It understated federal AGI at $104,874 instead of $106,573. It also applied a roughly $4,800 standard deduction plus an $800 'aged addition' instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions, which pushed taxable income to $78,515 instead of $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It subtracted the full $12,000 age deduction, but single-filer AFAGI of $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold, so the deduction is zero. It also used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $1,730 in exemptions. Its $66,244 taxable income is close to the engine's $65,593.83 only because these errors offset." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4-pro-0813,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Every step matches the correct derivation (Social Security subtraction, zero age deduction, $1,730 exemptions, brackets) except the itemized total. It used $19,518.04 of Virginia itemized deductions, $98.10 more than the engine's $19,419.94, which lowers taxable income to $65,495.96 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by $5.63." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,deepseek-v4.1-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed Virginia taxable income from full federal AGI of $106,572.80 without subtracting the $19,828.80 of federally taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts. It also used $17,518 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94 and left out the $800 age-65 exemption." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3-flash-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It overstated itemized deductions at $23,948.60, which is $4,528.66 more than the engine's $19,419.94. It took only the $800 aged exemption and dropped the $930 personal exemption. Its stated taxable income of $60,294.40 does not even match its own inputs ($86,744 − $23,948.60 − $800 = $61,995.40)." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $4,180 implies taxable income of about $77,170. That matches VA AGI of $86,744 minus a roughly $8,500–8,750 standard deduction and a single $930 exemption. The engine deducts $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions plus $1,730 of personal and age exemptions, which leave $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.1-pro-preview,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its explanation gives no figures. Its $3,726 implies taxable income of about $69,278, so about $17,466 came off Virginia AGI of $86,743.77, where the engine takes off $21,149.94: $19,419.94 of itemized deductions, whose $4,441.86 medical deduction adds a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, and $1,730 of exemptions. One reconstruction close to its answer is $17,518 of itemized deductions (charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone) with no exemptions, which gives $3,722.98, about $3 below its answer." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $15,511 of itemized deductions is charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor plus real estate taxes; it leaves out the medical expense deduction. In the engine that deduction is $4,441.86: the $10,000 of other medical expenses plus a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, less 7.5% of federal AGI ($7,992.94); the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses and applies the charitable floor, for $19,419.94 in all. The model also used a $1,600 exemption instead of Virginia's $930 personal plus $800 age-65 exemptions ($1,730)." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.5-flash-lite,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $5,617 implies taxable income of about $102,200. That is federal AGI of $106,573 with no $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction and only about a $4,400 deduction. The engine subtracts the Social Security, then $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, leaving $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.6-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $17,518.04 of itemized deductions matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor ($10,913.78 rather than $11,446.65) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86 rather than $2,007.06); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's taxable income came out at $67,495.96 instead of $65,593.83, so its tax is $109 above the engine's." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.7-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its explanation gives no figures, but its $3,623.52 matches $17,518 of itemized deductions with the $1,730 of exemptions: charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes; both totals leave out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's implied taxable income is $1,902 above the engine's $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gemini-3.8-flash,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, which its federal explanation breaks into $11,447 of charitable gifts with no 0.5%-of-AGI floor, $4,064 of real estate taxes and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses. The engine's $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction applies the floor ($10,913.78) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. That makes the model's taxable income $67,496 instead of $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.2,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its described path ($106,573 − $19,829 − $9,000 standard deduction − $930) gives about $76,800 of taxable income and about $4,200 of tax. It instead submitted $14,036.62, which implies roughly $248,000 of taxable income, far more than the household's total income. The path itself also uses the standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and invents a pension deduction." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,glm-5.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions and counted a $930 age exemption instead of $800. It also made arithmetic errors: $106,573 − $19,829 comes out as $87,744 instead of $86,744. It then computed tax as $270 plus 5.75% of the amount over $8,000 instead of $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-mini,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It claimed the standard deduction and exemptions shelter all income. After the Social Security subtraction, VA AGI is still $86,743.77, and $19,419.94 of itemized deductions plus $1,730 of exemptions leave $65,593.83 taxable, which produces $3,514.15 of tax." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.4-nano,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated retirement income as largely sheltered, but Virginia subtracts only Social Security. The $30,000 pension and $9,600 IRA distributions stay fully taxable, and the $12,000 age deduction is fully phased out at AFAGI of $86,744. That leaves $65,593.83 of taxable income after itemized deductions and exemptions, not $0." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, which matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction applies the floor and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes; like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. So the model's taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the engine's." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It applied the $12,000 age deduction as 'available'. For a single filer it is reduced $1 for $1 above $50,000 of AFAGI, so $86,744 of AFAGI eliminates it. That pushed taxable income down to about $51,647 instead of $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used an $8,750 standard deduction and only the $930 personal exemption, leaving out the $800 age-65 exemption. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction (the result the model's federal answer matches) and the $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income and $4,127.67 of tax; the model's $77,064 is $800 higher there. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions leave $65,593.83, $11,470 below the model's." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-5.6-terra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $4,658 implies taxable income of about $85,490. That is what results from taking about $21,000 of itemized deductions and exemptions from federal AGI of $106,573 without first subtracting the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-astra,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $16,985.18 of itemized deductions matches the engine's $16,985.14 without the Medicare Part B premium: charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, as in the engine, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. With the $2,434.80 premium the engine imputes, the engine's Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income of $68,028.82 is $2,435 above the engine's, and the model's $3,654.16 matches the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-luna,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $3,397 implies taxable income of about $63,560. That is about $2,037 below the engine's $65,593.83. The model's explanation describes the Social Security subtraction and the age and personal exemptions, so the gap points to itemized deductions above the engine's $19,419.94." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its about $57,229 of taxable income matches carrying into Virginia its own federal AGI of $96,572.80, which its federal answer states, about $10,000 below the engine's $106,572.56: Virginia AGI of $76,744, less about $17,785 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, is about $57,229. Those itemized deductions are charitable gifts after a 0.5% floor on its AGI (about $10,964), the $4,064 real estate tax and about $2,757 of medical, the $10,000 of other medical expenses above 7.5% of its AGI. The engine deducts $19,419.94 of itemized deductions from Virginia AGI of $86,743.77, with a $4,441.86 medical deduction that adds a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. Virginia's rates on $57,229 give about $3,033, $10 below the model's submitted $3,043.16." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,gpt-6.1-sol,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its $16,985.18 of itemized deductions matches the engine's $16,985.14 without the Medicare Part B premium: charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, as in the engine, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. With the $2,434.80 premium the engine imputes, the engine's Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income is $68,028.82 instead of $65,593.83. Virginia's rates on $68,028.82 give $3,654.16, within a cent of the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium; the model's $3,654.66 adds a $0.50 arithmetic slip." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It asserted the standard deduction and exemptions offset all tax. After the Social Security subtraction, VA AGI is still $86,743.77, and deductions of $19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions leave $65,593.83 taxable, which yields $3,514.15." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.5,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It used $17,518 of Virginia itemized deductions, which matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, instead of the engine's $19,419.94. The engine applies the floor and adds to medical an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium; like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the engine's $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.6,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Everything matches the correct derivation except the itemized total. It used $19,518 of itemized deductions, $98 more than the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, which lowers taxable income to $65,496 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by about $5." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-4.7,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and so used an $8,500 Virginia standard deduction, with the $1,730 of exemptions, for $76,514 of taxable income. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction and the $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income, $250 below the model's. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions leave $65,593.83, $10,920 below the model's." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,grok-build-0.1,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It taxed income above $17,000 at 5.3% instead of Virginia's 5.75% top rate. It also subtracted the $12,000 age deduction, which is fully phased out at a single filer's AFAGI of $86,744, and left out the $1,730 of personal and aged exemptions." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,inkling,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"Its own inputs ($86,744 − $19,647 itemized − $930) give $66,167, yet it taxed $64,446, which is $1,148 below the engine's $65,593.83. It also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions compared with the engine's $19,419.94." us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,"It submitted no value for state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, so there is no substantive computation to evaluate." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and used Virginia's $8,500 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 of itemized deductions available to a federal itemizer. It also counted a $930 age-65 exemption instead of $800, which put taxable income at $76,384 instead of $65,593.83." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the filer as a low-income retiree with about zero tax, but VA AGI after the Social Security subtraction is $86,743.77. Only $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions apply, leaving $65,593.83 taxable." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,"It computed Virginia taxable income as federal AGI of $106,573 minus a $9,500 standard deduction and never subtracted the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security that Virginia exempts. It also used the standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $930 and $800 exemptions." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It made several errors. It invented a half-self-employment-tax deduction on partnership income and used a $1,000 standard deduction. It applied the $12,000 age deduction, which is fully phased out at AFAGI of $86,744. It subtracted $23,328 of Social Security even though its AGI already excluded it, a double subtraction. Finally, it submitted $2,453.71, which does not match its own computed $2,542.44." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It understated AGI at $80,164, when VA AGI is $86,743.77, and used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions. It subtracted a $12,000 age deduction that is fully phased out for a single filer with AFAGI of $86,744, and it took $745.50 of Virginia nonrefundable credits this filer does not qualify for." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,kimi-k3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It took an $8,500 Virginia standard deduction, to match its federal standard deduction, and counted a $930 age-65 exemption instead of $800, which put taxable income at $76,384. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction (the result the model's federal answer matches) and an $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income and $4,127.67 of tax, $120.23 and $6.91 below the model's. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions leave $65,593.83." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,minimax-m3,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It treated the filer as a low-income retiree with about zero tax, but VA AGI after the Social Security subtraction is $86,743.77. In the engine only $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions apply, leaving $65,593.83 taxable." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,ox-alpha,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It computed Virginia taxable income as federal AGI of $106,573 minus a $9,500 standard deduction and never subtracted the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security that Virginia exempts. It also used the standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $930 and $800 exemptions." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen-3.7-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It made several errors. It invented a half-self-employment-tax deduction on partnership income and used a $1,000 standard deduction. It applied the $12,000 age deduction, which is fully phased out at AFAGI of $86,744. It subtracted $23,328 of Social Security even though its AGI already excluded it, a double subtraction. Finally, it submitted $2,453.71, which does not match its own computed $2,542.44." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,qwen3.8-max,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"It understated AGI at $80,164, when VA AGI is $86,743.77, and used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions. It subtracted a $12,000 age deduction that is fully phased out for a single filer with AFAGI of $86,744, and it took $745.50 of Virginia nonrefundable credits this filer does not qualify for." us,scenario_114,state_refundable_credits,kimi-k2.6,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_115,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-4.7,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model invented an Alabama aged/disabled Medicaid pathway for the head instead of determining whether PolicyEngine assigned an eligible category. The engine assigns medicaid_category = NONE, so comparing $18,708 of Social Security income with an asserted aged/disabled limit cannot produce eligibility." us,scenario_115,head_medicaid_eligible,claude-opus-4.8,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,"The model treated age, disability, low assets, and $1,953 of monthly income as sufficient for an Alabama aged/disabled Medicaid category. PolicyEngine assigns no Medicaid category, so its income-and-assets comparison was applied to a pathway the head does not qualify through." diff --git a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_notes.csv b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_notes.csv index e8afbc5b..b82ee14e 100644 --- a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_notes.csv +++ b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_notes.csv @@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ us,scenario_021,self_employment_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,Fals us,scenario_021,snap,1,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,,"An elderly or disabled SNAP household is exempt from the gross-income test but must still satisfy the one-person net-income limit. With monthly net income of approximately $2,063 even under the model’s own deductions, the household fails that test, so the calculation stops at ineligibility and produces $0 rather than an allotment." us,scenario_021,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,2,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Missouri tax is computed from Missouri taxable income after applicable deductions and the 2026 taxable-income threshold, not by applying a flat rate directly to taxable pension income. After those steps, this household has no Missouri taxable income and therefore owes $0 before refundable credits." us,scenario_021,state_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,household_unit_or_filing_status,False,,"The head is widowed but has no dependent child, so qualifying surviving spouse status is unavailable and the return is filed as single, with the 22% rate starting above $50,400. Under 2026 OBBBA law the return itemizes $29,735.52. That figure is $14,887.85 of SALT, meaning $8,829 of property tax plus about $6,059 of estimated CA income tax under the $40,400 cap, and $14,847.67 of charity after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor. On top of that come the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income. The wrong answers split three ways: 16 used joint/QSS brackets, 8 applied the expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions, 15%/25% brackets), and the rest filed single but left out or understated the CA income-tax SALT component, the senior deduction, or the QBI deduction." +us,scenario_022,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The head is widowed but has no dependent child, so qualifying surviving spouse status is unavailable and the return is filed as single, with the 22% rate starting above $50,400. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid. In the reference the return itemizes $29,735.52: $14,887.85 of SALT, which is $8,829 of property tax plus $6,058.85, the engine's estimate of California income tax withheld (a formula on federal AGI), under the $40,400 cap, and $14,847.67 of charity after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor. On top of that come the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income. On policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts held for 2026, the system that built this reference, the household's California income tax is $2,505.87; the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold. With $2,505.87 in SALT the return still itemizes ($26,182.54) and the output is $11,895.23. The household's California output is itself excluded for an engine defect, and with its corrected value, $1,968.81 (recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4), the output is $12,013.38. With no state income tax paid, SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60 ($963 state plus a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality), and the output is $12,192.29, or $12,234.66 without the local part. The wrong answers split three ways: 16 used joint/QSS brackets, 8 applied the expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions, 15%/25% brackets), and the rest include models that filed single but put no state income tax in SALT or their own California tax estimate ($1,867 to $2,700), or left out the senior deduction or the QBI deduction. Grok 4.7 and Inkling answered $12,192, within $1 of the no-payment value of $12,192.29, though each put its own California tax estimate in SALT. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 11,113.57; the alternative is 11,895.23. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI ($6,058.85), while read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($2,505.87). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set)." us,scenario_022,federal_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_022,head_medicaid_eligible,1,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"Age 77 establishes an aged status but does not itself confer Medicaid eligibility, and Medicare eligibility or assumed enrollment is not a Medicaid eligibility pathway. The head receives no SSI and qualifies under none of California's Medicaid categories, so the aged status cannot overcome the absence of a qualifying pathway." us,scenario_022,local_income_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. @@ -275,7 +275,7 @@ us,scenario_030,snap,46,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"The SNAP unit us,scenario_030,ssi,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_030,tanf,2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,Texas TANF requires a family with a dependent child; pregnancy alone does not turn the unborn child into a qualifying dependent child or create a two-person assistance unit for this annual TANF calculation. The single adult therefore has no qualifying child and receives zero TANF. us,scenario_031,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,4,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The $1,165 alimony expense reduces $14,408 of IRA and pension income to $13,243 of adjusted gross income, while Social Security remains nontaxable. The applicable single-filer standard deduction, including the age-65 addition, exceeds that income, producing zero taxable income and therefore zero federal income tax before refundable credits." -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,43,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"At 67, the head qualifies as aged, so the engine tests Medi-Cal through the optional senior-or-disabled pathway (California's Aged & Disabled FPL program). This is a non-MAGI pathway with a 138% FPL income limit. Countable income is gross income minus health insurance premiums, including the Medicare Part B standard premium (about $202.90/month, or about $2,435/year in 2026). That brings the $23,853 gross down to about $21,400, below 138% FPL (about $21,600). The $4,200 in bank assets easily passes California's asset test. Almost every model compared gross or near-gross income with the limit and never subtracted the Part B premium. Others used the wrong threshold (100% FPL or the SSI rate), applied the $2,000 SSI resource limit, or denied that an aged person has a Medicaid category." +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,43,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"At 67 the head is aged (65 or older), which alone meets the category condition of the engine's optional senior-or-disabled pathway; it needs no disability or SSI receipt. The adult expansion group (ages 19 to 64, no Medicare eligibility) does not apply, but in the engine's Medicaid rules Medicare eligibility bars only that group. The pathway counts income under SSI rules: Social Security ($9,445.47, in full), the $13,608 pension and the $800 IRA distribution give $23,853.47; the $1,165 of alimony paid is not subtracted. In place of SSI's $20 monthly general income exclusion, the engine applies California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline of $15,960). The $4,200 in bank assets is far below California's $130,000 asset limit for the pathway. The engine also models a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium for the head, but countable income does not subtract it: with the premium at zero, or the head not enrolled in Medicare, countable income is still $21,093.47. Most models (29 of 43) miscounted income: most of those compared about $23,853 with the limit, a few applied only SSI's $20 exclusion or an exclusion of unstated size, and several asserted without figures that income was too high. The rest used the wrong threshold (100% of the poverty guideline or an SSI income limit), applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit or otherwise judged the $4,200 too much, or denied the head a category, by treating Medicare eligibility or the lack of SSI receipt or a disability as disqualifying, or by testing only the adult expansion group." us,scenario_031,snap,6,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"The head is 67, so this is an elderly household. PolicyEngine does not let California's 200% FPL broad-based categorical eligibility skip the net income test for this household. Monthly gross income is $1,987.75 (Social Security, pension and IRA). The only deduction is the $209 standard deduction. There are no shelter costs, and the $50/yr OTC medical expense is below the $35/mo threshold, so net income is about $1,779/mo. That is well above the 1-person net limit of about $1,305/mo (100% FPL), so the household is not SNAP-eligible. The one/two-person minimum benefit only applies to eligible households, so SNAP is $0. Five models treated BBCE as automatic eligibility and paid the minimum benefit. The sixth undercounted income." us,scenario_031,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,1,llm_error,credit_phaseout,False,,"California first computes $75.37 of tax on $7,537 of taxable income, then applies $312.93 of nonrefundable credits, including the aged-or-blind exemption credit. Those credits fully eliminate the liability, so state income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits is $0." us,scenario_032,child1_chip_eligible,13,llm_error,health_coverage,False,,"CHIP is residual by statute: 42 U.S.C. 1397jj(b)(1)(A) and 42 CFR 457.310 exclude from ""targeted low-income child"" any child who is eligible for Medicaid, so the CHIP question is settled by first running the Medicaid test. Minnesota's Medical Assistance covers children ages 6-18 — PolicyEngine's OLDER_CHILD category — far above this household's $42,664 for three people (~160% FPL), so the child is Medicaid-eligible and thereby barred from CHIP. Every wrong model instead applied a standalone CHIP income ceiling, most of them quoting Minnesota's 275%/283% FPL child limits, which are the Medical Assistance and MinnesotaCare bands rather than CHIP bands. They read ""income below the child-coverage limit"" as qualifying when it is precisely what disqualifies: several stated the Medicaid fact outright and then used it backwards." @@ -291,7 +291,7 @@ us,scenario_032,head_chip_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False us,scenario_032,head_medicaid_eligible,15,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Medicaid MAGI (42 CFR 435.603(e), which follows IRC 36B(d)(2)(B)) adds back the non-taxable part of Social Security benefits. The Head's $13,664 in Social Security dependent benefits therefore counts in full alongside the $29,000 in wages. That puts household MAGI at $42,664, or 1.56 times the FPL for a 3-person household, above Minnesota's 138% expansion-adult limit. Minnesota's Medical Assistance limit for parents and caretakers is the same 133% FPL plus the 5% disregard, so the 50-year-old Head qualifies through no pathway. Most models counted only wages, or wages plus the taxable part of Social Security (about $30,916). The rest correctly found $42,664 above 138% but then invented a higher Medicaid limit for parents, or a larger household." us,scenario_032,head_medicare_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_032,head_wic_eligible,1,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"WIC eligibility is person-specific and requires the applicant to be pregnant, postpartum, breastfeeding, an infant, or a child under age five. A 50-year-old head with all relevant unlisted statuses set to false fails categorical eligibility regardless of household income or another household member's circumstances." -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,40,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference adds three pieces: federal FICA on the head's $29,000 in wages ($1,798 Social Security plus $420.50 Medicare), and Minnesota's Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000 in MN paid-leave taxable wages). Minnesota Paid Leave premiums began in 2026. Almost every model stopped at 7.65% federal FICA ($2,218.50), and many said outright that Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax or that the paid-leave deduction is optional. The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35% instead of the 0.44% employee share. The few remaining errors come from made-up rates, doubling toward the employer-plus-employee total, or missing output." +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,40,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference adds three pieces: federal Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) on the head's $29,000 in wages, and $127.60 of Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000). Minnesota Paid Leave premiums began in 2026 and are owed by the employer, which may deduct up to 0.44% of wages from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50. Six models matched the reference, all adding $127.60. Thirty-three answered federal tax alone ($2,218.50, or $2,219 rounded): sixteen said no Minnesota employee payroll tax applies or none is mandatory, sixteen did not mention one, and one said paid-leave withholding is optional. One added the paid-leave premium at 0.35% ($2,320), and another recorded $2,320 against an explanation that totals $2,218.50. Of the rest, one submitted about double FICA ($4,428.60), one used an invented 5.24% rate ($1,520), one cut its own FICA total to $2,175.90 without a reason, and two returned no value. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (state_local_rule). The frozen reference is 2,346.10; the alternative is 2,218.50. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Minnesota Paid Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($127.60); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax)." us,scenario_032,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,26,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"Minnesota has universal free school meals, so PolicyEngine gives every student the FREE tier whatever the family's income. Reduced-price eligibility is false only because the better free tier replaces it. Income is not the reason: the household sits at 1.56 of the poverty guideline, inside the 130-185% reduced-price band. Every model that answered placed income in the federal 130-185% band and stopped there. None applied Minnesota's universal free-meals rule, which moves the student out of the reduced-price tier." us,scenario_032,self_employment_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_032,snap,8,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"SNAP eligibility ends at the gross-income screen for this three-person Minnesota household: $29,000 of wages plus $13,664 of Social Security dependent benefits produces $42,664 of annual gross income, above the applicable limit. Take-up assumptions and benefit-allotment calculations do not create eligibility after that screen fails, so the annual benefit is $0." @@ -370,7 +370,7 @@ us,scenario_043,head_medicaid_eligible,9,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False us,scenario_043,head_medicare_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,head_wic_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,local_income_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,30,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The requested output covers mandatory employee state payroll taxes. Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees half of a 0.88% premium in 2026, or 0.44% of wages, which adds $17.99 on $4,088.15 of wages to the $312.75 of FICA. Almost every model stopped at 7.65% FICA ($312.73) and either said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or dropped FAMLI on purpose. The outliers made other mistakes: one subtracted ESI premiums from the FICA base, one used a 0.6% FAMLI rate, one submitted a value that did not match its own arithmetic, and one returned zero with no calculation." +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,30,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference is $330.73: employee Social Security and Medicare, 7.65% of the head's $4,088.15 of wages, or $312.74, plus $17.99 of Colorado FAMLI (0.44% of wages). The prompt lists the wages as $4,088, on which 7.65% is $312.73. Colorado's FAMLI premium is 0.88% of wages in 2026; the employer remits it and may deduct up to half, 0.44%, from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $312.74. Sixteen models matched the reference within $1: seven at 0.44% ($330.72) and nine at the 2025 rate of 0.45% ($331.13). Twenty-six answered federal tax alone (about $312.73): fourteen said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or none is mandatory, eleven did not mention FAMLI, and one computed FAMLI and then left it out as like unemployment insurance. Of the other four, one reached $331.14 with FAMLI at 0.45% but submitted $315.14, one priced FAMLI at $24.53 (0.6% of wages), one subtracted the $8,389 of employer-sponsored insurance premiums from wages and returned $0, and one returned $0 with no calculation. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (state_local_rule). The frozen reference is 330.73; the alternative is 312.74. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Colorado FAMLI contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($17.99); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax)." us,scenario_043,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_043,snap,32,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,,"This one-person Colorado household is eligible and gets the maximum benefit. Its 66-year-old head counts as elderly, so the excess medical deduction, the standard deduction and the 20% earned-income deduction bring net income to $0. The $2,800 in assets is under the elderly limit, and the household is also categorically eligible through Colorado's TANF non-cash eligibility test. The benefit is the 2026 one-person maximum allotment for the contiguous states, $298 a month, or $3,576 a year. Most models got the eligibility right and then used a stale or guessed maximum ($291 for FY2024, $292 for FY2025, or $299-$328). A smaller group wrongly said the household fails the asset or income tests and answered $0." us,scenario_043,ssi,4,llm_error,period_annualization,False,,"SSI eligibility is determined for the individual, not by subtracting annualized countable income from twelve times a monthly federal benefit rate. The head’s approximately $4,642 of individual income exceeds the applicable SSI income limit, so the income-eligibility gate fails and no SSI is payable despite aged categorical eligibility and assumed take-up." @@ -434,7 +434,7 @@ us,scenario_051,federal_refundable_credits,4,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,," us,scenario_051,head_medicaid_eligible,2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"Louisiana Medicaid eligibility requires qualification through a specific categorical pathway, not merely acceptable immigration status or the absence of an expressly listed disqualification. This 25-year-old, nondependent adult has MAGI income of 2.51 times FPL, receives no SSI, and falls into Medicaid category NONE, so no MAGI or alternative state-program pathway confers eligibility." us,scenario_051,payroll_tax,10,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"Employee Social Security and Medicare taxes apply to the full $40,000 of wages here, producing $2,480 and $580 respectively, for a $3,060 total. The dominant error was subtracting the listed employer-sponsored insurance premium without any fact establishing a pre-tax salary-reduction arrangement; several other models derived $3,060 correctly but then submitted a different number." us,scenario_051,self_employment_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_051,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,,"Louisiana's post-2024 reform (Act 11, 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) applies a flat 3% rate to federal AGI minus a single standard deduction. That deduction was $12,500 for 2025 and is inflation-indexed starting in 2026, which gives $12,835 for the 2026 tax year. On $40,180 of AGI, that leaves $27,345 taxable and $820.35 of tax. The largest group of models knew the flat 3% structure but used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $830.40. The other models used the repealed pre-2025 law: 1.85%/3.5% brackets, a $4,500 combined exemption, or a deduction for federal income tax. Some of those also subtracted ESI premiums from AGI or claimed Louisiana has no income tax. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated llm_error (thresholds_rates). The frozen 814.95 is regenerated as 820.35: it corrects an engine defect fixed upstream (fixed in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8839 (issue #8828), after the reference freeze): Capital gain distributions are long-term capital gain in gross income and in the preferential-rate base. Reference regenerated (26 U.S.C. 61(a)(3), 852(b)(3)(B); Form 1040 line 7)." +us,scenario_051,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,thresholds_rates,False,,"Louisiana's post-2024 reform (Act 11, 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) applies a flat 3% rate to federal AGI minus a single standard deduction. That deduction was $12,500 for 2025, and R.S. 47:294(B) raises it by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. On $40,180 of AGI, that leaves $27,345 taxable and $820.35 of tax. Before the reference freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement income exemption, which R.S. 47:44.1 indexes in the same words (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $820.26, within the $1 tolerance for an exact match. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025; it would give $819.15. The largest group, 21 of the 46 models, knew the flat 3% structure but used 2025's $12,500 and answered $830.40 or $830; four more reached about $830 that way and then submitted a different figure ($632 to $1,080). Of the other 21, 13 used repealed rules: 1.85%/3.5% brackets, a $4,500 exemption or deduction, or a deduction for federal income tax; six of these also subtracted the ESI premiums from AGI. The remaining eight claimed Louisiana has no income tax or that deductions offset it, gave a figure with no derivation, or gave no answer. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated llm_error (thresholds_rates). The frozen 814.95 is regenerated as 820.35: it corrects an engine defect fixed upstream (fixed in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8839 (issue #8828), after the reference freeze): Capital gain distributions are long-term capital gain in gross income and in the preferential-rate base. Reference regenerated (26 U.S.C. 61(a)(3), 852(b)(3)(B); Form 1040 line 7)." us,scenario_051,state_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_052,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,45,reference_engine_defect,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,"PolicyEngine takes the head's $43.28 traditional IRA contribution as an above-the-line deduction (AGI $504,778.56 instead of $504,821.84) without applying the IRC §219(g) active-participant phase-out (2026 MFJ range $129,000–$149,000). The head's elective 401(k) deferrals make them an active participant, and MAGI is about $504,800, so the deduction should be $0 and the value about $104,225.25.","The reference builds AGI of $504,778.56 from wages net of the 401(k) deferral ($499,073.84), $7,900 interest, $848 qualified dividends, the $3,000 capital-loss limit and a $43.28 traditional IRA deduction. It then subtracts the OBBBA 2026 MFJ standard deduction of $32,200 and taxes the $471,730.56 of ordinary income on the 2026 brackets (24% to $403,550, then 32%) for $103,865.78. To that it adds $127.20 on the qualified dividends at 15% and $218.42 of NIIT on $5,748 of net investment income. The closest models (104,225.30) match every step except the IRA deduction. Most other models went wrong for their own reasons: they assumed the TCJA sunset (pre-TCJA rates, exemptions), subtracted ESI premiums from wages, used outdated standard deductions or brackets, folded the Additional Medicare Tax into income tax, left out NIIT, or computed NIIT without netting the $3,000 capital loss. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned reference_model_issue_fixed; adjudicated reference_engine_defect (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 104,211.41; the corrected value is 104,225.26. PolicyEngine deducts traditional IRA contributions without the active-participant phase-out. Reference is an engine defect; output excluded from scoring (26 U.S.C. 219(g); IRS Notice 2025-67 (2026 ranges))." us,scenario_052,federal_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. @@ -603,7 +603,7 @@ us,scenario_077,head_wic_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False, us,scenario_077,payroll_tax,9,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"Employee Social Security and Medicare taxes are computed from the applicable payroll-tax wage base, and the reference calculation applies the 6.2% and 1.45% employee rates to the full $26,006 of wages. The employer-sponsored insurance premium input does not reduce that wage base in this calculation, producing $1,612.38 of Social Security tax plus $377.09 of Medicare tax, or $1,989.47." us,scenario_077,self_employment_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_077,snap,5,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"Louisiana’s broad-based categorical eligibility gross-income screen does not itself guarantee a SNAP allotment; the household must still produce an eligible benefit under the net-income and allotment calculations. SNAP countable income does not subtract capital losses, a mortgage balance is not a shelter expense, and a non-elderly, nondisabled household cannot deduct medical expenses. With no listed deductible shelter payment and countable wages of $26,006, this one-person household receives $0." -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Louisiana's 2025 reform (Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) replaced the graduated brackets, the $4,500 combined personal exemption and the federal-income-tax deduction with a flat 3% rate and a $12,500 single standard deduction. That deduction is indexed for inflation from 2026, so it is $12,835 in 2026. The reference taxes $23,006.18 AGI − $12,835 = $10,171.18 at 3%, which gives $305.14. Most models used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $315.18. The others applied the repealed pre-2025 exemptions and brackets, wrongly took the ESI premiums out of AGI, stacked extra deductions on top, or claimed Louisiana has no income tax." +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Louisiana's 2025 reform (Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) replaced the graduated brackets and the $4,500 combined personal exemption with a flat 3% rate and a $12,500 single standard deduction for 2025. R.S. 47:294(B) raises it by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. The reference taxes $23,006.18 AGI − $12,835 = $10,171.18 at 3%, which gives $305.14. Before the reference freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement income exemption, which R.S. 47:44.1 indexes in the same words (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $305.05, within the $1 tolerance for an exact match. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that $12,875, which it called inflation-adjusted, on the $23,006 AGI that the prompt's $26,006 of wages and the $3,000 capital-loss limit give; with $12,875 the engine gives $303.94. Of the 46 models, 19 used 2025's $12,500 and answered $315.18 or $315; three more reached about $315 that way and then submitted $446 to $496, and two paired $12,500 with the repealed 1.85% rate or the $4,500 exemption. Ten more applied repealed rules (a personal exemption, the 1.85%/3.5% brackets or a deduction for federal income tax), four of them after taking the $8,389 ESI premiums out of AGI. Seven answered $0, saying Louisiana has no income tax, that PolicyEngine does not model it, or that deductions or low income leave nothing to tax. The rest gave a figure with no derivation, subtracted an unstated $15,400, or gave no answer." us,scenario_077,state_refundable_credits,4,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The models applied Louisiana’s former refundable earned income tax credit, equal to 5% of the federal EITC, to tax year 2026. Louisiana no longer provides that refundable credit in 2026, so the Louisiana refundable-credits computation returns zero regardless of an estimated federal EITC amount." us,scenario_077,tanf,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_078,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The key step is the SALT deduction. It combines Maryland state income tax, Maryland county (local) income tax and the $26,460 real estate tax, and together they exceed the 2026 OBBBA cap of $40,400, so SALT is exactly $40,400. Add $28,210 of mortgage interest for $68,610 in itemized deductions. AGI of $200,136.91 minus $68,610 leaves taxable income of $131,526.91, and the 2026 TCJA-permanent single brackets (10/12/22/24%) give $24,164.46. The wrong answers fall into four groups: (1) the expired $10,000 SALT cap (~$31.4–31.5k); (2) treating TCJA as sunset, which restores personal exemptions and the 15/25/28% brackets (~$27–28.5k); (3) counting only real estate tax in SALT ($27,510.08); and (4) adding state income tax but leaving out county income tax, which keeps SALT below the cap (~$25.85k). Developer adjudication (2026-09-29): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 24,164.46; the alternative is 23,772.80. The prompt lists state and local tax refund income without saying whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year it was deducted; policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the whole refund as income (policyengine-us#9422, fixing issue #9122), while under 26 U.S.C. 111(a) none of it is income if the household took no tax benefit from the deduction. Found in the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade (reference_audit/2026-09-28, cluster salt_refund_gross_income_9122). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom))." @@ -636,9 +636,9 @@ us,scenario_080,ssi,2,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"SSI requires the us,scenario_080,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,8,llm_error,credit_phaseout,False,,"Pennsylvania first applies its 3.07% rate to the $940 of taxable dividends and gains, then applies the nonrefundable Tax Forgiveness credit in computing income tax before refundable credits. The household's eligibility income remains within the range for 100% forgiveness, so the credit eliminates the preliminary tax and yields $0." us,scenario_080,state_refundable_credits,2,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"Pennsylvania Schedule SP tax forgiveness is a nonrefundable credit that reduces Pennsylvania income-tax liability; it is not included in state refundable credits. With no qualifying Pennsylvania refundable credit, the requested aggregate is $0." us,scenario_080,tanf,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"For 2026, OBBBA makes the TCJA 10/12/22/24% brackets and the $0 personal exemption permanent and raises the SALT cap to $40,400. That makes $14,127.41 of SALT fully deductible: $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax. Adding $16,900 of mortgage interest gives $31,027.41 of itemized deductions, well above the $16,100 standard deduction. Taxable income is $143,059.47, and the tax is $17,966 + 24% × $37,359.47 = $26,932.27. The wrong answers fall into five traps: applying the expired $10,000 SALT cap (about $27,923), leaving Massachusetts income tax out of SALT (about $28,969), assuming a TCJA sunset with personal exemptions and 15/25/28% brackets (about $29,100–$30,000), subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, and near misses that put Massachusetts income tax a few hundred dollars low." +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"For 2026, OBBBA makes the TCJA 10/12/22/24% brackets and the $0 personal exemption permanent and raises the SALT cap to $40,400. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid. In the reference, SALT is $14,127.41, fully deductible: $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41, the engine's estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 personal exemption). Adding $16,900 of mortgage interest gives $31,027.41 of itemized deductions, well above the $16,100 standard deduction. Taxable income is $143,059.47, and the tax is $17,966 + 24% × $37,359.47 = $26,932.27. The engine's own Massachusetts income tax for the household is $8,238.41; with it in SALT the output is $26,991.31. The household's Massachusetts output is itself excluded for an engine defect, and with its corrected value, $8,232.90, the output is $26,992.64. With no state income tax paid, SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. The wrong answers fall into five groups: applying the expired $10,000 SALT cap (about $27,923), putting no state income tax and no sales tax in SALT (about $28,969), assuming a TCJA sunset with personal exemptions and 15/25/28% brackets (mostly about $29,100 to $30,200), subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, and near misses that put their own Massachusetts income tax estimate in SALT, mostly about $8,230 to $8,390, where the reference has the withholding estimate. Four answers are within $1 of the corrected-liability value: GPT-5.6 Sol ($26,992.59), Claude Opus 5.5 ($26,992.66), and GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol ($26,993.29). Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 26,932.27; the alternative is 26,991.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding on federal AGI ($8,484.41), while read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($8,238.41). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set)." us,scenario_081,federal_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,37,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference has three parts: employee Social Security of 6.2% x $175,002 = $10,850.12 (the wages are below the 2026 wage base), employee Medicare of 1.45% x $175,002 = $2,537.53 with no Additional Medicare Tax, and the mandatory Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. Most wrong models stopped at SS plus Medicare ($13,387.65) because they left out MA PFML or treated it as employer-only. Others included PFML at a wrong employee rate (0.256%, 0.318%, 0.375%, 0.44%, 0.532%, 0.55% or 0.604%). A third group shrank the FICA base to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums, but the payroll tax base here is the full $175,002." +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,37,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference has three parts: employee Social Security of 6.2% × $175,002 = $10,850.12 (the wages are below the 2026 wage base), employee Medicare of 1.45% × $175,002 = $2,537.53 with no Additional Medicare Tax, and $805.01 of Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML), 0.46% × $175,002. The employer remits PFML contributions and, under the Department of Family and Medical Leave's published 2026 rates, may deduct up to 0.46% of wages from the employee (all of the 0.18% family rate and 40% of the 0.70% medical rate) or deduct less or none. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65. Nine models matched the reference. Of the other 37, nine answered federal tax alone, saying Massachusetts has no employee payroll tax or none is mandatory, assuming PFML is not modeled, leaving it out without a reason, or not mentioning it. Thirteen more left PFML out and made another error, most often a total that does not match the model's own figures; others used an outdated Social Security wage base, a 2.9% Medicare rate, Additional Medicare Tax on wages under $200,000, or a FICA base cut to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 of employer-sponsored insurance premiums, which the engine does not subtract. Thirteen included PFML at other amounts, at stated rates from 0.24% to 0.604% or as estimates without a rate, two of them on the $167,613 base. One returned $0 with no reasoning, and one returned no value. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (state_local_rule). The frozen reference is 14,192.66; the alternative is 13,387.65. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Massachusetts PFML contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a) and (c); 458 CMR 2.05(5)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct ($805.01); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax)." us,scenario_081,self_employment_tax,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_081,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,43,reference_engine_defect,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The reference has two parts. Part B income is $175,058: $175,002 of wages plus the $56 of taxable interest. Three items come off it: the $2,000 cap on the Social Security/Medicare deduction, the $4,000 rent deduction (50% of $44,400, capped at $4,000), and the $4,400 single exemption. That leaves $164,658, which is taxed at 5% for $8,232.90. Part A adds 5% on the $110 of dividends ($5.51), because the short-term capital loss is not netted against it, for a total of $8,238.41. Most models left out the $2,000 payroll-tax deduction or the $4,000 rent deduction, or used the old $3,000 rent cap. Others netted the $1,080 short-term loss against ordinary or Part A income, subtracted federal itemized deductions or ESI premiums that Massachusetts does not allow, or added arbitrary final adjustments. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated reference_engine_defect (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 8,238.41; the corrected value is 8,232.90. PolicyEngine taxes Massachusetts Part A dividends gross, without the short-term capital loss offset its own Part A AGI computes. Reference is an engine defect; output excluded from scoring (M.G.L. c. 62 sec. 2(b), 2(c)(2)(a), 2(c)(4), 2(f); DOR TIR 02-21)." us,scenario_081,state_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. @@ -651,7 +651,7 @@ us,scenario_082,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,reference_engine us,scenario_082,federal_refundable_credits,8,llm_error,credit_phaseout,False,,"The separating step is that the Additional Child Tax Credit is a residual, not a per-child entitlement: the 2026 CTC of $2,200 is first applied nonrefundably against tax liability, and only the unused remainder — capped at $1,700 and further limited to 15% of earned income over $2,500 — becomes refundable. This head-of-household filer has roughly $117,650 of AGI (wages net of the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral, plus $20,480 of dividends and $100 of interest, less the $3,000 capital-loss limitation on a $30,711 net loss and the $8 IRA deduction), which produces federal tax before credits many times larger than $2,200, so the entire credit is consumed nonrefundably and nothing spills into the refundable bucket. EITC is zero on income grounds and independently on the investment-income limit, and no American Opportunity Credit, Recovery Rebate Credit, or refundable payroll tax credit applies. Every wrong model quoted a statutory refundable ceiling as the answer instead of computing the leftover after the nonrefundable CTC." us,scenario_082,head_medicare_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_082,local_income_tax,5,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"New York State residence does not establish New York City residence, and the prompt supplies no city or locality. Because unlisted location facts are false, no covered local income, wage, or earnings tax applies, so the separate local-income-tax output is zero." -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,42,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The requested payroll_tax output includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In New York those are Paid Family Leave (PFL) and disability benefits (DBL) contributions. The federal part is simple: 7.65% of the full $100,195 wage base, or $7,664.92. On top of that, 2026 NY PFL is 0.432% of wages capped at the statewide average weekly wage base of $95,350.72, which caps the contribution at $411.91, and DBL is $0.60/week, or $31.20 a year. The largest group of models dropped the $443.11 of NY contributions entirely. Others used stale 2024/2025 PFL rates or caps, applied the 0.432% rate without the cap, or wrongly cut the FICA base by subtracting the employer-sponsored insurance premium or the 401(k) deferral." +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,42,prompt_ambiguity,state_local_rule,False,,"The reference is $8,108.03: employee Social Security and Medicare, 7.65% of the full $100,195 of wages ($6,212.09 plus $1,452.83, or $7,664.92), plus $443.11 of New York contributions: Paid Family Leave (PFL) at 0.432% of wages up to its 2026 annual maximum of $411.91, and disability benefits (DBL) at $0.60 a week, $31.20 a year. New York lets the employer collect these from the employee up to those caps but does not require it, and the employer pays the disability cost it does not collect. The reference counts the most the employer may collect; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92. Four models matched the reference. Of the other 42, fourteen answered federal tax alone (about $7,665), saying New York has no employee payroll tax or none is modeled, calling the contributions negligible, or not mentioning them. Eight more left both out and made another error: FICA understated or mis-added (answers from $7,654 to $7,765 instead of $7,664.92), or a FICA base cut by subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium or the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral, which the engine does not subtract. Eighteen included PFL or DBL at other amounts: PFL at rates, caps or estimates other than 0.432% up to $411.91, or at 0.432% with no cap; DBL alone; or PFL without DBL; four of them also cut the FICA base by the insurance premium. One subtracted an invented $200 of New York deductions from FICA, and one returned no value. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (state_local_rule). The frozen reference is 8,108.03; the alternative is 7,664.92. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; New York disability and Paid Family Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($443.11); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax)." us,scenario_082,self_employment_tax,2,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_082,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,45,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"The filer is a New York head of household. NY AGI is $117,585. That is federal AGI less the $68 refund subtraction, with the capital loss capped at $3,000 and the listed wages not reduced by the ESI premiums. Subtracting the $11,200 HOH standard deduction (which beats the $11,169 of NY itemized deductions) and a $1,000 exemption for the child only leaves $105,385.15. The 2026 reduced HOH rates (3.9%/4.4%/5.15%/5.4%) give $5,442.17 on that amount, and a $156.38 supplemental recapture tax applies because NY AGI exceeds $107,650. No nonrefundable credit applies: the NY child and dependent care credit and the Empire State Child Credit are refundable, and the household credit is phased out. The models went wrong in several ways: filing as single or using the $8,000 deduction, adding an exemption for the head, using pre-2026 rates, leaving out the supplemental tax, subtracting refundable credits, over-itemizing, or removing the ESI premiums or the uncapped capital loss from income." us,scenario_082,state_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,state_local_rule,False,,"This household gets two refundable New York credits. The first is the enhanced 2026 Empire State Child Credit: $1,000 for a child under 4, reduced by $16.50 for each whole $1,000 of federal AGI ($117,652.65) above the $75,000 head-of-household threshold. That is 42 steps, or $693, which leaves $307. The second is the refundable NY child and dependent care credit at 60% of the $600 federal credit, or $360, for a total of $667. The wrong answers fall into four patterns. Some applied the pre-2025 ESCC (33% of the federal CTC, a $100 minimum, or no credit for children under 4). Some treated the ESCC as fully phased out. Some used the 20% NY CDCC percentage instead of 60% or called the CDCC nonrefundable. Others ignored one of the two credits entirely." @@ -875,11 +875,11 @@ us,scenario_112,head_wic_eligible,1,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"WI us,scenario_112,payroll_tax,7,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"Employer-sponsored insurance premiums are not automatically employee pre-tax cafeteria-plan deductions from FICA wages; the listed $5,923 remains subject to employee Social Security and Medicare taxes. PolicyEngine computes $367.22 of Social Security tax and $85.88 of Medicare tax, totaling $453.10, with no Additional Medicare Tax or mandatory Texas employee payroll tax." us,scenario_112,self_employment_tax,4,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"Self-employment tax applies only to positive net earnings from self-employment, after determining the applicable self-employment tax base. The household’s relevant net income is approximately -$2,101, so there are no positive net self-employment earnings and the tax base is zero; treating the $1,920 farm rent entry as a standalone positive self-employment tax base produces the wrong liability." us,scenario_112,snap,46,prompt_ambiguity,categorical_eligibility,False,"PolicyEngine's SNAP earned and unearned income source lists leave out the farm_rent_income variable. Its gross income of $1,576.90 equals ($5,923 + $13,000)/12, so the $1,920 of farm rent is excluded, although 7 CFR 273.9(b)(2)(ii) counts net income from rental property (and 273.9(b)(1) counts it as earned income when it is actively managed). Counting the farm rent raises net income to about $1,429/month, above the $1,304 net limit, which makes SNAP $0.","The reference counts only wages ($493.58/month) and the $13,000 of financial assistance ($1,083.33/month) as SNAP income, for $1,576.92/month; it leaves out the $1,920 of farm rent. After the 20% earned-income deduction and the $209 standard deduction, net income is $1,269.19. That is just under the $1,304.17 limit (100% of the poverty guideline), so the household passes the net income test. Because 30% of net income ($380.76) is more than the $298 maximum allotment, this one-person household gets only the minimum allotment of about $23.84/month. Most models added the $160/month of farm rent, which pushed net income to about $1,429 (above the net limit) or applied a 130% gross test despite Texas's 165% broad-based categorical eligibility (BBCE) limit, and answered $0. A few left out the financial assistance and answered about $194/month. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned reference_model_issue_fixed; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (categorical_eligibility). The frozen reference is 287.68; the alternative is 0.00. The prompt lists no hours worked and says to treat unlisted numeric inputs as 0; the reference assumed 40 hours a week, which clears the SNAP work requirement for able-bodied adults without dependents. Under the zero-hours reading the time limit applies, which ends benefits after three countable months unless an exemption or area waiver applies; the alternative value is the engine's zero-hours result, not a certified entitlement. Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr)." -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The correct 2026 result follows OBBBA law. AGI is $106,572.56, with 85% of Social Security taxable. Itemized deductions total $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78 after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor, SALT $9,431.59 ($4,064 real estate tax plus $5,367.59 state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, with non-deductible OTC purchases excluded, above 7.5% of AGI). That total beats the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. Itemizers still take the $4,105.65 phased senior deduction and the $4,872.35 QBI deduction, leaving $72,807.33 taxed at the permanent TCJA brackets (10% to $12,400, 12% to $50,400, then 22%) for $10,729.61. The wrong answers fall into five groups: (1) applying expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 15%/25% brackets, no QBI); (2) omitting the senior deduction; (3) understating itemized deductions by dropping state income tax from SALT or missing the Part B premium, and so picking the standard deduction; (4) imputing mortgage interest or self-employment tax that the facts do not support; and (5) reporting numbers unrelated to their own arithmetic." +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"The reference follows OBBBA law for 2026. AGI is $106,572.56, with 85% of Social Security taxable. Itemized deductions total $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78 after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor; SALT $9,431.59, the $4,064.29 real estate tax plus $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld (Virginia's rates on federal AGI less Virginia's $8,750 standard deduction; the prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid); and medical $4,441.86. The engine counts $12,434.80 of medical expenses: the $10,000 of other medical expenses plus a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium ($202.90 a month) that it adds because it treats the 69-year-old as enrolled in Medicare, which the prompt does not state. It does not count the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The deduction is the amount above 7.5% of AGI ($7,992.94). The $24,787.23 total beats the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. Itemizers still take the $4,105.65 phased senior deduction and the $4,872.35 QBI deduction, leaving $72,807.33 taxed at the permanent TCJA brackets (10% to $12,400, 12% to $50,400, then 22%) for $10,729.61. The wrong answers fall into five groups: (1) applying expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 15%/25% brackets, no QBI); (2) omitting the senior deduction; (3) itemizing less than the engine by putting less state income tax into SALT than the engine's $5,367.30 estimate (none, or the model's own Virginia tax) or by leaving out the Part B premium; in the engine either omission alone still leaves itemizing ahead, and only leaving out both the state income tax and the premium makes the standard-deduction path ($11,969.80) the result, which kimi-k3 ($11,969.85) and gpt-5.6-sol ($11,970) answered, while gpt-6-astra ($11,642.20) and gpt-6.1-sol ($11,642.09) match the engine without the premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT ($11,642.16); (4) imputing mortgage interest or self-employment tax that the facts do not support; and (5) reporting numbers unrelated to their own arithmetic. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 10,729.61; the alternative is 11,137.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Virginia withholding on federal AGI ($5,367.30), while read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($3,514.15). The reference's medical deduction also counts a modeled Medicare Part B premium ($2,434.80) the prompt does not list; without it the output is 11,265.27. Found in the 2026-10-05 audits of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05) and of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either)." us,scenario_114,federal_refundable_credits,2,llm_error,credit_phaseout,False,,"EITC phaseout uses adjusted gross income or earned income, whichever is greater, rather than wages alone. This filer’s partnership/S-corp income, taxable retirement distributions, pension, taxable Social Security, and interest raise AGI far above the childless EITC limit, so every refundable credit component is zero." us,scenario_114,payroll_tax,4,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"The requested payroll-tax output includes employee Social Security and employee Medicare taxes on the $22,700 of wages, while self-employment tax is reported separately and Virginia adds no mandatory employee payroll tax here. The stated components sum to $1,407.40 + $329.15 = $1,736.55; arbitrary adjustments, duplication, and invented state payroll taxes produce the wrong answers." us,scenario_114,self_employment_tax,18,llm_error,payroll_tax_base,False,,"The household's only business-type input is $24,362 of partnership or S-corp income, and that amount is not net earnings from self-employment. S-corp pass-through income is never subject to SE tax. A partnership distributive share counts only for a general partner, and the prompt says any unlisted status is false, so no general-partner status can be assumed. With zero self-employment income, SE tax is $0. Every substantive wrong answer made the same mistake: each model counted the partnership/S-corp amount as SE earnings, then applied 15.3% to 92.35% of it, which gives about $3,442. Some models then added further arithmetic errors on top of that." -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,llm_error,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Virginia taxable income here starts from federal AGI ($106,572.56) minus the $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction, giving VA AGI of $86,743.77. The age deduction is zero because a single filer's AFAGI of about $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold. From there, Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94 apply (the filer itemizes federally), plus exemptions of $930 personal and $800 age-65 taken as deductions from income. That leaves $65,593.83, taxed at $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000 = $3,514.15. The wrong answers split five ways: (1) using the VA standard deduction instead of itemizing; (2) granting the phased-out $12,000 age deduction; (3) dropping the $800 aged exemption or treating exemptions as tax credits; (4) shrinking the medical deduction by leaving out the $2,000 over-the-counter expenses or adding the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor; (5) skipping the Social Security subtraction." +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,46,prompt_ambiguity,taxable_income_or_deductions,False,,"Virginia taxable income here starts from federal AGI ($106,572.56) minus the $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction, giving VA AGI of $86,743.77. The age deduction is zero because a single filer's AFAGI of about $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold. From there, the engine applies Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94, because the filer itemizes federally in the engine: the federal itemized deductions other than SALT, which are $10,913.78 of charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor and a $4,441.86 medical deduction, plus the $4,064.29 real estate tax, with state income tax left out. The medical deduction counts the $10,000 of other medical expenses and a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium that the engine adds because it treats the 69-year-old as enrolled in Medicare, which the prompt does not state; it leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses. Exemptions of $930 personal and $800 age-65 are also taken as deductions from income. That leaves $65,593.83, taxed at $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000 = $3,514.15. The wrong answers split five ways: (1) using the VA standard deduction instead of itemizing (the engine does the same, for $4,127.67, only when it counts neither the Part B premium nor the $5,367.30 estimate of Virginia income tax withheld that it puts in federal SALT, which the prompt also does not list); (2) granting the phased-out $12,000 age deduction; (3) dropping the $800 aged exemption or treating exemptions as tax credits; (4) building itemized deductions without the Part B premium: $16,985 with the charitable floor (gpt-6-astra, $3,654.16, and gpt-6.1-sol, $3,654.66, within a dollar of the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium) or $17,518 without the floor, and, by counting the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses in its place, $18,985 with the floor or $19,518 without it; (5) skipping the Social Security subtraction. Developer adjudication (2026-10-05): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated prompt_ambiguity (taxable_income_or_deductions). The frozen reference is 3,514.15; the alternative is 3,654.15. The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment or Part B premium; policyengine-us 2.15.17 treats the 69-year-old head as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true) and adds the $2,434.80 standard Part B premium to medical expenses, which Virginia's itemized deductions carry from the federal ones; read with no premium paid, the output is the alternative. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b, scripts/sweep_part_b.py). Reference depends on an unlisted input; output excluded from scoring (Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either)." us,scenario_114,state_refundable_credits,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. us,scenario_115,head_medicaid_eligible,5,llm_error,categorical_eligibility,False,,"Age 77 and a reported disability do not by themselves place the head in an Alabama Medicaid eligibility category. PolicyEngine assigns medicaid_category = NONE; the 1.47 FPL MAGI amount therefore cannot establish eligibility through a MAGI category, and immigration eligibility alone is insufficient." us,scenario_115,head_wic_eligible,1,parse_contract_failure,missing_output,False,,All wrong responses were missing or unparseable predictions. diff --git a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_reference_explanations.csv b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_reference_explanations.csv index 6fa3629e..79910701 100644 --- a/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_reference_explanations.csv +++ b/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_case_reference_explanations.csv @@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ us,scenario_119,self_employment_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a self-employ us,scenario_042,free_school_meals_eligible,0.0,16,"PolicyEngine determined that this Wisconsin household is not eligible for free school meals, resulting in a value of 0.0. The household's school_meal_countable_income of $65,389—derived from dividend income ($6,848), interest income ($175), Social Security ($29,580), pension income ($4,886), and retirement distributions ($23,900)—was compared against the federal poverty guideline threshold. With a school_meal_fpg_ratio of 4.10, the household's income is 410% of the federal poverty guideline ($15,960), far exceeding the 185% threshold required for reduced-price meals and well above the threshold for free meals. Since Wisconsin does not have universal free school meals and the household does not meet categorical eligibility through programs like SNAP or TANF, the household is classified in school_meal_tier 2 (paid meals) and receives no subsidy, resulting in a school_meal_net_subsidy of 0.", us,scenario_062,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this Florida household in 2026. Florida does not impose a state income tax, and the local_income_tax variable in PolicyEngine captures taxes levied by local jurisdictions within states that have income tax systems. Since Florida has no income tax structure at either the state or local level, there is no local income tax liability for this household regardless of its ~$37,642 annual income. The $0 result reflects the absence of applicable local income tax obligations in Florida rather than any exemptions or deductions applied to taxable income.", us,scenario_005,head_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) in California for tax year 2026, resulting in a value of False. CHIP eligibility requires applicants to be under age 19, but the head of household is 35 years old, which exceeds the program's age threshold. Additionally, with a household income of approximately $585,777, the family's income far exceeds CHIP's income limits, which are typically set at or below 200–250% of the federal poverty level depending on the state. Since the household fails both CHIP's age requirement and income criterion, the person is ineligible for the program.", -us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,26932.2734375,58,"PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27 for this single Massachusetts resident by first determining adjusted gross income of $174,088.12, which includes $175,002 in employment income, $110.12 in dividend income, and $56 in taxable interest income, reduced by $1,080 in capital losses. The household's taxable income was reduced to $143,059.47 after applying itemized deductions totaling $31,028.65, which consisted of $16,900 in interest deduction and $14,127.41 in state and local tax deduction, plus a $1.24 qualified business income deduction. Applying 2026 federal tax rates to this taxable income yielded a tax liability of $26,932.27, which was lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction ($30,514.85), confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice. No additional taxes or credits adjusted this amount, resulting in the final federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27.", +us,scenario_081,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,26932.2734375,58,"PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27 for this single Massachusetts resident by first determining adjusted gross income of $174,088.12, which includes $175,002 in employment income, $110.12 in dividend income, and $56 in taxable interest income, reduced by $1,080 in capital losses. The household's taxable income was reduced to $143,059.47 after deductions totaling $31,028.65: itemized deductions of $31,027.41, which consisted of $16,900 in interest deduction and $14,127.41 in state and local tax deduction, plus a $1.24 qualified business income deduction. The state and local tax amount is $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41, PolicyEngine's estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 personal exemption); the household lists no state income tax withheld or paid, and PolicyEngine computes its Massachusetts income tax as $8,238.41. Applying 2026 federal tax rates to this taxable income yielded a tax liability of $26,932.27, which was lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction ($30,514.85), confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice. No additional taxes or credits adjusted this amount, resulting in the final federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27.", us,scenario_100,head_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for CHIP (is_chip_eligible = False). The head of household is age 46, which places them outside the age range for CHIP eligibility, as CHIP is a program designed for children. Additionally, the head of household qualifies for Medicaid as a parent (is_medicaid_eligible = True), and since CHIP is intended to cover children who do not qualify for Medicaid, this further establishes ineligibility for the CHIP program. The result of False reflects that this adult household member does not meet the eligibility criteria for the Children's Health Insurance Program.", us,scenario_042,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,0.0,3,"PolicyEngine determined that this Wisconsin household is not eligible for reduced-price school meals, resulting in a value of 0. The household's income of approximately $58,434 places it at 4.10 times the federal poverty guideline, which exceeds the 185% income threshold required for reduced-price meal eligibility. Since Wisconsin does not have universal free school meals and the household does not qualify for categorical eligibility through programs like SNAP or TANF, the household is assigned to the PAID school_meal_tier and receives no subsidy (school_meal_net_subsidy = 0). Consequently, the household must pay the full price for school meals.", us,scenario_062,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefit of $0 for this single-adult household in Florida with an annual income of approximately $37,642 in tax year 2026. The computation trace shows that while the household's `takes_up_snap_if_eligible` parameter was set to True, indicating willingness to participate in the program, the household's income level exceeded the eligibility threshold for SNAP benefits. With an income of roughly $37,642 annually, this single-person household surpassed the income limit that would qualify them for assistance under SNAP's federal guidelines, resulting in zero benefits despite the household's stated participation preference.", @@ -154,8 +154,8 @@ us,scenario_026,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrit us,scenario_081,self_employment_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a self_employment_tax value of $0 for this Massachusetts household because the household has no self-employment income. Self-employment tax is only assessed on net earnings from self-employment activities, and since this benchmark household's approximately $174,088 in household income derives from other sources (such as wages or salaries), there is no self-employment income base upon which to apply the 15.3% self-employment tax rate. Therefore, PolicyEngine correctly returned zero for this variable.", us,scenario_119,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this Virginia head of household with two children and approximately $55,800 in household income. Virginia does not impose a local income tax at the state level, and the localities within Virginia that do levy local income taxes (primarily certain cities) either do not apply to this household's circumstances or result in no tax liability. Therefore, the local_income_tax variable correctly reflects $0 in local income tax obligations for the 2026 tax year.", us,scenario_100,head_medicare_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not Medicare eligible (is_medicare_eligible = False) for the 2026 tax year. Medicare eligibility in the United States is primarily determined by age, with individuals generally becoming eligible at age 65, along with certain disability or end-stage renal disease criteria. Based on the household composition of one adult and two children with a total household income of approximately $5,915, the head of household does not meet the age threshold or other qualifying conditions for Medicare coverage. The resulting value of 0.0 (False) reflects that this household member falls outside the Medicare eligibility criteria for 2026.", -us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,14192.662109375,13,"PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax for this Massachusetts resident at $14,192.66 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The largest component was employee_social_security_tax at $10,850.12, calculated on wages up to the annual Social Security wage base. The employee_medicare_tax contributed $2,537.53, assessed on the full employment income of $175,002 with no wage cap. Additionally, Massachusetts's paid leave contribution tax added $805.01, computed as a percentage of the ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $175,002, which is specific to Massachusetts's Paid Family and Medical Leave program. These three components—Social Security, Medicare, and the state paid leave contribution—sum to the total payroll tax obligation of $14,192.66.", -us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,330.7310791015625,13,"PolicyEngine calculated a payroll tax of $330.73 for this single Colorado resident with approximately $4,642 in household income. The total payroll tax comprises three components: employee Social Security tax of $253.47, employee Medicare tax of $59.28, and Colorado state payroll tax of $17.99. The Colorado state payroll tax is specifically a Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) contribution, calculated on $4,088.15 in taxable wages derived from the household's employment income. These three tax components sum to the final payroll tax obligation of $330.73.", +us,scenario_081,payroll_tax,14192.662109375,13,"PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax for this Massachusetts resident at $14,192.66 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The largest component was employee_social_security_tax at $10,850.12, calculated on wages up to the annual Social Security wage base. The employee_medicare_tax contributed $2,537.53, assessed on the full employment income of $175,002 with no wage cap. The third component, $805.01, is the Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave employee contribution (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution): 0.46% of the ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $175,002, the full 0.18% family rate plus 40% of the 0.70% medical rate. The engine documents this contribution as assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share; Massachusetts lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does. Without it the total is $13,387.65.", +us,scenario_043,payroll_tax,330.7310791015625,13,"PolicyEngine calculated a payroll tax of $330.73 for this single Colorado resident with approximately $4,642 in household income. The total comprises three components: employee Social Security tax of $253.47, employee Medicare tax of $59.28, and Colorado state payroll tax of $17.99; each is rounded to the cent here, and the unrounded amounts sum to $330.73. The Colorado amount is the employee Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) contribution (co_employee_famli_contribution): the 0.44% employee rate applied to $4,088.15 of FAMLI taxable wages from the household's employment income. That rate is the most an employer may deduct, half of the 0.88% premium; Colorado lets the employer pay that share instead, and the prompt does not say which it does. Without it the total is $312.74.", us,scenario_026,ssi,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated SSI of $0.00 for this North Carolina household in 2026 because none of the five household members—the head (age 48), spouse (age 45), or the three children (ages 11, 11, and 9)—meet the eligibility criteria for Supplemental Security Income. SSI eligibility requires that an individual be aged 65 or older, blind, or disabled; the engine's inputs indicate that all household members have `is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled=False`, meaning none satisfy these categorical requirements. Although all five household members have `takes_up_ssi_if_eligible=True`, indicating they would claim the benefit if eligible, the absence of any qualifying condition results in zero SSI payments across the entire household. The $0.00 result reflects ineligibility at the individual level rather than any income-based phase-out, since SSI eligibility is determined first by categorical status before income limits are applied.", us,scenario_062,head_wic_eligible,0.0,15,"PolicyEngine determined that this 85-year-old Florida resident is not eligible for WIC (Women, Infants, and Children) benefits because they failed the income test, despite meeting the nutritional risk criteria. The household's wic_countable_income of $61,649—derived from interest income ($257), social security ($21,312), pension income ($11,280), and survivor benefits ($28,800)—substantially exceeds the wic_income_limit of $29,526 for a single-person household in the contiguous United States. Additionally, the applicant does not meet categorical eligibility requirements, as WIC eligibility is restricted to pregnant women, postpartum women, breastfeeding women, infants, and children, and this household member falls into wic_category 5 (elderly). Although the household was determined to be at nutritional risk, this factor alone cannot override the income and categorical ineligibility requirements.", us,scenario_005,free_school_meals_eligible,0.0,18,"PolicyEngine determined that this California household is not eligible for free school meals, resulting in a value of 0.0. Although California has a universal free school meals program (state_has_universal_free_school_meals = True), the household's school_meal_tier was calculated as 0, indicating they do not qualify under the program's income thresholds. The household's school_meal_countable_income of $662,539.69—derived from employment income ($430,000), dividend income ($87,642.35), interest income ($74,897.35), and pension income ($70,000)—resulted in a school_meal_fpg_ratio of 30.62, meaning their income is approximately 31 times the federal poverty guideline for a 2-person household (spm_unit_fpg = $21,640). Since the household does not meet categorical eligibility requirements and exceeds the income limits for the universal program, they receive no school meal subsidy (school_meal_net_subsidy = 0).", @@ -243,7 +243,7 @@ us,scenario_101,state_refundable_credits,0.0,45,"PolicyEngine calculated state_r us,scenario_007,head_chip_eligible,0.0,2,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) in 2026, resulting in `is_chip_eligible = False`. The computation assigned a `chip_category` value of 3, which represents ineligibility. At age 56, the household head exceeds CHIP's age requirements, which are designed to cover children and, in some state programs, pregnant women and parents—not working-age adults. Additionally, with a household income of approximately $54,565, the individual would not meet CHIP's income thresholds even if age-eligible. The combination of failing both CHIP's age criterion and income criterion results in the ineligibility determination.", us,scenario_119,child2_medicare_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the second child in this household is not Medicare eligible, returning a value of False (represented as 0.0). Medicare eligibility is primarily determined by age, requiring individuals to be 65 years or older, and this household's second child does not meet that threshold. The computation shows all three household members—the head of household and both children—returned False for Medicare eligibility status, which is consistent with a household structure where the children are dependents and the adult head of household is below the Medicare eligibility age. Therefore, PolicyEngine correctly assigned a value of 0 (not eligible) for the second child's Medicare eligibility status.", us,scenario_026,child1_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that child1 (age 11) is not eligible for CHIP in North Carolina for tax year 2026, resulting in an is_chip_eligible value of False. The child qualifies for Medicaid under the OLDER_CHILD category, which makes them ineligible for CHIP since that program is designed to cover children who do not qualify for Medicaid. Because the child's Medicaid eligibility was established first, CHIP coverage does not apply regardless of the household's income of approximately $85,209. This ineligibility reflects the federal structure of these programs, where Medicaid serves as the primary coverage pathway for eligible children and CHIP functions as a secondary option for those who fall outside Medicaid's scope.", -us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,8108.02734375,18,"PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax at $8,108.03 for this New York head-of-household by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The federal employee Social Security tax contributed $6,212.09 based on the household's employment income of $100,195, while the federal employee Medicare tax added $1,452.83. New York state payroll taxes accounted for an additional $443.11, composed of $411.91 in paid family leave contributions and $31.20 in disability benefits contributions, both calculated on the same $100,195 in taxable wages. These three federal and state components combined to produce the total payroll tax obligation of $8,108.03.", +us,scenario_082,payroll_tax,8108.02734375,18,"PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax at $8,108.03 for this New York head-of-household by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The federal employee Social Security tax contributed $6,212.09 based on the household's employment income of $100,195, while the federal employee Medicare tax added $1,452.83. New York state payroll taxes added $443.11: a Paid Family Leave contribution of $411.91 (0.432% of the $100,195 in taxable wages is $432.84, above the $411.91 annual maximum) and a disability benefits contribution of $31.20 (0.5% of wages, capped at $31.20 a year, $0.60 a week for 52 weeks). These are the most the employer may collect from the employee; New York lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does. Without them the total is $7,664.92.", us,scenario_064,ssi,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated SSI of $0.00 for this Wisconsin household in 2026 because none of the five household members meet the eligibility criteria for Supplemental Security Income. The head (age 48), spouse (age 47), dependent1 (age 27), dependent2 (age 18), and child1 (age 12) all have `is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled=False`, meaning none qualify under SSI's requirement that recipients be aged 65 or older, blind, or disabled according to the engine's inputs. Although all household members have `takes_up_ssi_if_eligible=True`, indicating they would claim the benefit if eligible, the absence of any qualifying condition results in zero SSI benefits across all individuals. The $0.00 result reflects ineligibility based on age and disability status, not income limits.", us,scenario_101,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this Texas household in 2026. Texas does not impose a state income tax, and the local_income_tax variable, which captures local-level income taxes imposed by municipalities or counties, also resulted in $0 because Texas localities do not levy local income taxes on wages or salaries. Therefore, despite the household's income of approximately $101,830, no local income tax liability was generated under the applicable tax rules for the jurisdiction.", us,scenario_044,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.0,8,"For this Kansas joint-filing household with approximately $56,806 in annual income, PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits as $0. This result is derived from the sum of four component taxes: income tax before credits ($0), net investment income tax ($0), recapture of investment credit ($0), and unreported payroll tax ($0), with a further reduction by income tax capped non-refundable credits ($0). The zero income tax before credits indicates that the household's taxable income falls entirely within the standard deduction for joint filers in 2026, eliminating regular income tax liability. With no investment income generating net investment income tax and no other special tax items present, the final federal income tax before refundable credits is $0.", @@ -972,7 +972,7 @@ us,scenario_110,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,4057.47216796875,62," us,scenario_052,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,104211.40625,50,"PolicyEngine calculated the federal income tax before refundable credits as $104,211.41 for this Texas joint filer by starting with an adjusted gross income of $504,778.56, which included $499,073.84 in employment income (after $926.16 in pre-tax 401(k) contributions), $7,900 in taxable interest income, $848 in dividend income, and a net capital loss of $29,922. After applying above-the-line deductions of $3,043.28 and the standard deduction of $32,200, the household's taxable income was $472,578.56. The main income tax on this amount using 2026 tax brackets was $103,865.78, to which PolicyEngine added $127.20 in capital gains tax on the $848 of qualified dividends and $218.42 in net investment income tax (calculated on $5,748 of net investment income subject to the 3.8% NIIT threshold), resulting in a total income tax before refundable credits of $104,211.41.", us,scenario_032,self_employment_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a self-employment tax of $0.00 for this Minnesota household in 2026 because neither adult in the household reported self-employment income. Self-employment tax is only assessed on net earnings from self-employment activities, and since this joint household's income of approximately $42,664 derives from other sources (such as wages or salaries), there is no self-employment income subject to the 15.3% self-employment tax rate. The computation trace shows zero values across all household entities, confirming that no self-employment activity was present in the household's tax profile.", us,scenario_013,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,0.0,3,"PolicyEngine determined that this household is not eligible for reduced-price school meals, resulting in a value of 0. The household's income of approximately $30,472 translates to a school_meal_fpg_ratio of 1.91, meaning income is 191% of the federal poverty guideline. Since this ratio exceeds the 185% income threshold required for reduced-price meal eligibility, and the household does not qualify for categorical eligibility through programs like SNAP or TANF, the household is classified in the school_meal_tier as PAID. Consequently, the school_meal_net_subsidy is 0, and the household must pay the full price for school meals.", -us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,2346.10009765625,13,"PolicyEngine calculated the household's payroll tax at $2,346.10 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The primary component was employee_social_security_tax of $1,798, calculated on the primary earner's employment_income of $29,000. The second component was employee_medicare_tax of $420.50, also based on the same earnings. The third component was employee_state_payroll_tax of $127.60, which reflects Minnesota's paid leave contribution requirement (mn_paid_leave_contribution) applied to the mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $29,000. The secondary adult in the household had no employment income and therefore contributed $0 to all payroll tax categories.", +us,scenario_032,payroll_tax,2346.10009765625,13,"PolicyEngine calculated the household's payroll tax at $2,346.10 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The primary component was employee_social_security_tax of $1,798, calculated on the primary earner's employment_income of $29,000. The second component was employee_medicare_tax of $420.50, also based on the same earnings. The third component was employee_state_payroll_tax of $127.60, the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution (mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution): the 0.44% employee rate applied to mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $29,000. The engine documents this contribution as assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share; Minnesota lets the employer pay that share instead, and the prompt does not say which it does. Without it the total is $2,218.50. The secondary adult in the household had no employment income and therefore contributed $0 to all payroll tax categories.", us,scenario_072,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefit of $0 for this Michigan household of two adults with approximately $73,974 in annual income. Although the household's `takes_up_snap_if_eligible` variable evaluated to True, indicating the household would participate in the program if eligible, the household does not qualify for SNAP benefits due to exceeding the income limits. For a two-person household in Michigan in 2026, the gross income threshold for SNAP eligibility is substantially lower than the household's reported income level, resulting in zero benefits despite the household's willingness to participate in the program.", us,scenario_072,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this Michigan household in 2026. Michigan does not impose a local income tax at the state level, and the household's residence was not specified as being in one of the few Michigan municipalities that levy local income taxes (such as Detroit or Pontiac). Therefore, despite the household's joint income of approximately $73,974, no local income tax liability was assessed. The computation resulted in a straightforward zero value with no intermediate tax calculations required.", us,scenario_052,federal_refundable_credits,0.0,6,"For this benchmark household in Texas with joint filing status, two adults, and no children, PolicyEngine calculated federal refundable credits of $0 for tax year 2026. The household's income of approximately $478,826 places it well above the phase-out thresholds for all major refundable credit programs. The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) phases out completely at lower income levels and does not apply to this household. The refundable portion of the Child Tax Credit (refundable_ctc) is $0 because the household has no qualifying children. The refundable American Opportunity Credit, recovery rebate credit, and refundable payroll tax credit also contribute $0, as the household does not qualify for education credits, stimulus payments, or the specific payroll tax provisions that would generate these credits. Consequently, the total refundable credits equal $0.", @@ -1254,7 +1254,7 @@ us,scenario_075,payroll_tax,968.2120971679688,5,"PolicyEngine calculated a payro us,scenario_036,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,1724.155029296875,64,"PolicyEngine calculated the state income tax before refundable credits for this New Jersey resident by first determining the New Jersey adjusted gross income (nj_agi) of $59,220 based on taxable pension income. From this amount, PolicyEngine subtracted the nj_total_exemptions of $1,000 to arrive at a nj_taxable_income of $58,220. This taxable income was then subject to New Jersey's tax rate schedule through the nj_main_income_tax calculation, which produced a tax liability of $1,724.16. All other states' income tax variables returned zero, as the household resides in New Jersey and has no tax obligations in other jurisdictions.", us,scenario_075,self_employment_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a self-employment tax of $0 for this Florida household because the household has no self-employment income. Self-employment tax is only assessed on net earnings from self-employment activities, and since this benchmark household's approximately $109,286 in income derives from other sources (such as wages or salaries), there is no self-employment tax liability. The calculation correctly reflects that self-employment tax applies exclusively to individuals who operate their own business or are self-employed, which does not apply to this household's income profile.", us,scenario_016,head_wic_eligible,0.0,12,"PolicyEngine determined that this household is not eligible for WIC (is_wic_eligible = False) because it fails two key eligibility requirements. First, the household does not meet the income test: with wic_countable_income of $34,637.94 based on employment_income, it exceeds the wic_income_limit of $29,526 for a single-person household in the contiguous United States. Second, the household does not meet categorical eligibility requirements, as the head of household is 49 years old and falls into wic_category 5, which does not qualify for WIC (the program serves pregnant women, postpartum women, breastfeeding women, infants, and children under age 5). Although the model determined the household meets is_wic_at_nutritional_risk, this factor alone is insufficient without meeting either the income or categorical eligibility criteria.", -us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,10729.6123046875,70,"PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $10,729.61 for this single Virginia resident by applying 2026 tax rates to a taxable income of $72,807.33. The taxable income was derived from an adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, which included employment income of $22,700, partnership/S-corp income of $24,361.77, taxable pension income of $30,000, taxable Social Security of $19,828.80, and other income sources, reduced by $22 in above-the-line deductions. From this AGI, PolicyEngine applied itemized deductions totaling $33,765.23—consisting of $24,787.23 in itemized deductions (charitable contributions of $10,913.78, SALT deductions of $9,431.59, and medical expenses of $4,441.86) plus a qualified business income deduction of $4,872.35 and an additional senior deduction of $4,105.65—which exceeded the standard deduction of $18,150, making itemization beneficial. The resulting tax liability of $10,729.61 was $1,240.19 lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction, confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice for this household.", +us,scenario_114,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,10729.6123046875,70,"PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $10,729.61 for this single Virginia resident by applying 2026 tax rates to a taxable income of $72,807.33. The taxable income was derived from an adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, which included employment income of $22,700, partnership/S-corp income of $24,361.77, taxable pension income of $30,000, taxable Social Security of $19,828.80, and other income sources, reduced by $22 in above-the-line deductions. From this AGI, PolicyEngine subtracted $33,765.23 of deductions: $24,787.23 of itemized deductions, a qualified business income deduction of $4,872.35 and an additional senior deduction of $4,105.65. The itemized deductions are charitable contributions of $10,913.78 after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor; SALT of $9,431.59, the $4,064.29 of real estate taxes plus $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld (the prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid); and a medical expense deduction of $4,441.86, which counts a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine adds because it treats the filer as enrolled in Medicare, but not the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. They exceed the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 charitable deduction for non-itemizers. The resulting tax liability of $10,729.61 was $1,240.19 lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction, so the engine itemizes.", us,scenario_092,head_wic_eligible,0.0,13,"PolicyEngine determined that this 77-year-old household is not eligible for WIC (Women, Infants, and Children) benefits, resulting in a value of 0.0. The household failed the income test, which is the primary eligibility requirement: with countable income of $32,380 (comprised of $17,400 in social security and $14,980 in pension income), the household exceeds Alabama's WIC income limit of $29,526 for a single-person household in the contiguous United States. Additionally, the household does not meet categorical eligibility requirements, as WIC is designed for pregnant women, postpartum women, breastfeeding women, infants, and children—categories that do not apply to a 77-year-old individual. Although PolicyEngine determined the household meets nutritional risk criteria, this factor alone cannot establish eligibility without meeting either the income test or categorical requirements.", us,scenario_036,state_refundable_credits,0.0,46,"PolicyEngine calculated state_refundable_credits as $0 for this New Jersey single adult household with approximately $59,220 in income. The computation aggregates refundable tax credits across all 50 states and select localities, with nj_refundable_credits specifically evaluated at $0 since the household resides in New Jersey. All other state-level refundable credit variables (including those for Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, and all remaining states) also evaluated to $0, resulting in a total state refundable credits value of $0. This outcome reflects that either New Jersey offers no refundable credits applicable to this household's income level and filing status, or the household does not qualify for any available refundable credits in the tax year 2026.", us,scenario_036,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this single adult in New Jersey with a household income of approximately $59,220 in 2026. This result reflects that New Jersey does not impose a local income tax at the municipal level—income taxation in the state is handled exclusively through the state income tax system. Since there is no local income tax liability to compute under New Jersey law, the local_income_tax variable correctly returns zero regardless of the household's income level.", @@ -1279,7 +1279,7 @@ us,scenario_036,tanf,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a TANF (Temporary Assistance us,scenario_075,ssi,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated SSI of $0.00 for this Florida household in 2026 because the head of household, age 62, does not meet any of the three categorical eligibility requirements for Supplemental Security Income. SSI eligibility requires that a household member be either aged 65 or older, blind, or disabled; since the 62-year-old head of household satisfies none of these criteria (with is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled=False), no member of the household qualifies for the program. Although the engine determined that the household would take up SSI if eligible (takes_up_ssi_if_eligible=True), this behavioral parameter does not override the categorical eligibility gatekeeping. Therefore, the household receives no SSI benefit regardless of its income level of approximately $109,286.", us,scenario_054,child1_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that child1 is not eligible for CHIP (is_chip_eligible = False) in North Carolina for tax year 2026. The child, age 10, qualifies for Medicaid under the OLDER_CHILD category due to the household's very low income of approximately $0. Since CHIP is designed to cover children who do not qualify for Medicaid, child1's existing Medicaid eligibility renders them ineligible for CHIP coverage. Therefore, PolicyEngine correctly assigned a value of False to is_chip_eligible for this household member.", us,scenario_075,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefit of $0 for this single-adult household in Florida with an annual income of approximately $109,286 in tax year 2026. The computation shows that while the household's take-up behavior was set to `takes_up_snap_if_eligible = True` (indicating the household would claim benefits if eligible), the resulting benefit amount is zero across all calculation nodes. This outcome reflects that the household's income of ~$109,286 substantially exceeds the SNAP income eligibility threshold, which typically caps out well below six figures for a single-person household, making the household ineligible for any SNAP assistance regardless of their willingness to participate in the program.", -us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,3514.14501953125,95,"PolicyEngine calculated Virginia state income tax before refundable credits of $3,514.15 for this single, 69-year-old filer with ~$110,072 household income. The calculation began with adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, from which Virginia-specific subtractions of $19,828.80 (primarily taxable Social Security income) were deducted to arrive at Virginia AGI of $86,743.77. The filer's Virginia taxable income was then determined to be $65,593.83 after applying itemized deductions of $19,419.94 (including charitable contributions, medical expenses, real estate taxes, and state/local taxes) and total exemptions of $1,730 (comprising a $930 personal exemption and an $800 aged/blind exemption, the latter applicable due to the filer's age of 69). Virginia's tax brackets and rates were then applied to this taxable income of $65,593.83 to produce the final tax liability of $3,514.15 before any refundable credits.", +us,scenario_114,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,3514.14501953125,95,"PolicyEngine calculated Virginia state income tax before refundable credits of $3,514.15 for this single, 69-year-old filer with ~$110,072 household income. The calculation began with adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, from which Virginia-specific subtractions of $19,828.80 (equal to the taxable Social Security income) were deducted to arrive at Virginia AGI of $86,743.77. The filer's Virginia taxable income was then determined to be $65,593.83 after applying itemized deductions of $19,419.94 (charitable contributions of $10,913.78 after the federal 0.5%-of-AGI floor, a medical expense deduction of $4,441.86 and real estate taxes of $4,064.29; state income tax is not included, and the medical deduction counts a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine adds because it treats the filer as enrolled in Medicare, but not the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses) and total exemptions of $1,730 (comprising a $930 personal exemption and an $800 aged/blind exemption, the latter applicable due to the filer's age of 69). Virginia's tax brackets and rates were then applied to this taxable income of $65,593.83 to produce the final tax liability of $3,514.15 before any refundable credits.", us,scenario_114,state_refundable_credits,0.0,46,"PolicyEngine calculated state_refundable_credits as $0 for this Virginia household in 2026. The computation aggregates refundable tax credits across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with va_refundable_credits specifically evaluated for this household since the residence state is Virginia (VA = True). Since Virginia does not currently offer refundable state tax credits that apply to this household's circumstances, va_refundable_credits returned $0, and all other state-specific refundable credit variables similarly returned $0. The sum of these zero values across all jurisdictions yields a total state_refundable_credits amount of $0.", us,scenario_114,local_income_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a local income tax of $0 for this Virginia household in 2026. Virginia does not impose a local income tax at the state level, and the household's locality of residence does not levy an additional local income tax on wages or other income sources. Therefore, despite the household's gross income of approximately $110,072, no local income tax liability was generated. This result reflects Virginia's tax structure, which relies on state income taxation rather than local income tax collection.", us,scenario_018,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,5211.05078125,27,"PolicyEngine calculated the federal income tax before refundable credits as $5,211.05 for this single Arizona filer in 2026. The calculation began with employment income of $68,005, which was reduced by pre-tax 401(k) contributions of $6,174.40 and above-the-line deductions of $288.51 (traditional IRA contributions), yielding an adjusted gross income of $61,592.09. From this AGI, PolicyEngine applied the standard deduction of $16,100 to arrive at a taxable income of $45,492.09. The tax on this taxable income using 2026 federal tax brackets and rates resulted in $5,211.05 in income tax before refundable credits, with no additional adjustments from net investment income tax, credits, or other modifications.", @@ -1527,7 +1527,7 @@ us,scenario_021,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrit us,scenario_077,self_employment_tax,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine calculated a self-employment tax of $0 for this Louisiana household in 2026. The household's total income of approximately $18,039 does not appear to include self-employment income, which is the only income type subject to self-employment tax under federal law. Since self-employment tax applies only to net earnings from self-employment (Schedule C income), and this household has no such income, no self-employment tax liability was generated. This result reflects the standard tax treatment where wage earners and households without business income owe no self-employment tax regardless of their total income level.", us,scenario_004,snap,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated a SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefit of $0 for this New York household of two adults with approximately $52,540 in annual income. Although the household's take-up parameter (`takes_up_snap_if_eligible`) was set to True, indicating willingness to claim benefits if eligible, the household's income level exceeds the SNAP eligibility threshold. At roughly $52,540 in household income, this two-person household surpasses the gross income limit for SNAP eligibility in New York for 2026, which results in the household being ineligible for any benefit amount. Consequently, PolicyEngine derived a benefit value of $0, reflecting the household's ineligibility based on income rather than any unwillingness to participate in the program.", us,scenario_021,ssi,0.0,25,"PolicyEngine calculated an SSI benefit of $0.00 for this 85-year-old household head in Missouri for tax year 2026. Although the individual meets the categorical requirement for SSI as aged, blind, or disabled (is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled=True), the household's income of approximately $27,508 exceeds the SSI income limits, resulting in ineligibility. The computation confirms that takes_up_ssi_if_eligible=True, indicating the household would claim the benefit if eligible, but the income test prevents any payment. Since SSI eligibility and benefit calculations are determined on an individual basis rather than pooled at the household level, this person's own income alone disqualifies them from receiving benefits despite meeting the categorical criteria.", -us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,305.13525390625,56,"PolicyEngine calculated Louisiana state income tax before refundable credits at $305.14 for this single adult in Louisiana with approximately $18,039 household income. The calculation began with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $23,006.18, from which PolicyEngine subtracted Louisiana's standard deduction of $12,835 to arrive at a taxable income of $10,171.18. This taxable income was then subject to Louisiana's tax brackets and rates, resulting in the final tax liability of $305.14 before any refundable credits are applied. All other states' income tax calculations returned zero, confirming that only Louisiana's tax applied to this household.", +us,scenario_077,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,305.13525390625,56,"PolicyEngine calculated Louisiana state income tax before refundable credits at $305.14 for this single adult in Louisiana with approximately $18,039 household income. The calculation began with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $23,006.18, from which PolicyEngine subtracted Louisiana's standard deduction of $12,835 to arrive at a taxable income of $10,171.18. Louisiana's flat 3% rate on that taxable income gives $305.14, and no nonrefundable credit applies, so tax before refundable credits is also $305.14. All other states' income tax calculations returned zero, confirming that only Louisiana's tax applied to this household.", us,scenario_038,head_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for CHIP (is_chip_eligible = False). The head is age 25, which places them outside CHIP's target population of children. More fundamentally, PolicyEngine found that the head is eligible for Medicaid in the adult category (is_medicaid_eligible = True), and CHIP is designed to cover children who do not qualify for Medicaid. Since the head already qualifies for Medicaid, they are ineligible for CHIP regardless of household income level.", us,scenario_098,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.0,8,"For this single adult in Illinois with approximately $35,035 in household income, PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits as $0. The computation shows that income_tax_before_credits, which forms the primary component of this calculation, equals $0, indicating that the household's tax liability before any credits is eliminated entirely. The adjusted_gross_income of $4,440 used in calculating the net investment income tax (which also contributes $0) suggests that after standard deductions and adjustments, the taxable income falls below the threshold requiring federal income tax. The other components—recapture of investment credit, unreported payroll tax, qualified retirement penalty, and income tax capped non-refundable credits—all contribute $0, confirming that no additional tax obligations apply to this household.", us,scenario_116,head_chip_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Program) in Florida for tax year 2026. The household's income of approximately $52,800 exceeds CHIP's income thresholds, and additionally, the head of household at age 44 falls outside CHIP's age eligibility requirements, which are designed for children and pregnant women. Since the person fails both CHIP's age criterion and income criterion, they are ineligible for the program. This result aligns with the engine's finding that the person is also not Medicaid-eligible, leaving them without coverage through either of these public health insurance programs.", @@ -1809,7 +1809,7 @@ us,scenario_099,child2_medicaid_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that chi us,scenario_020,head_medicaid_eligible,0.0,7,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for Medicaid in Texas for 2026, resulting in `is_medicaid_eligible = False`. The person's `medicaid_category` evaluated to 9, indicating they qualify through none of the standard Medicaid eligibility pathways. While the person met the immigration status requirement (`is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible = True`), having been in the US for 5 years, this alone was insufficient for eligibility. Additionally, the person did not qualify for California's FFYP program (`ca_ffyp_eligible = False`) or Illinois's HBI program (`il_hbi_eligible = False`), which might have provided alternative pathways. With a MAGI income level of 18.81 times the federal poverty line and no qualifying category, the household falls outside Texas's Medicaid eligibility criteria for 2026.", us,scenario_057,head_medicaid_eligible,1.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is eligible for Medicaid (is_medicaid_eligible = True) based on their status as an SSI recipient. Under Louisiana's Medicaid rules for 2026, individuals receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) are automatically enrolled in the SSI_RECIPIENT medicaid category, which carries automatic Medicaid eligibility regardless of income level. Although the household's Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) is measured at 0.45 times the Federal Poverty Level, this income threshold is not the binding constraint for SSI recipients—categorical eligibility through SSI receipt itself is sufficient to establish Medicaid eligibility. Therefore, PolicyEngine returned a value of 1.0 (True) for the head's Medicaid eligibility status.", us,scenario_123,spouse_medicaid_eligible,0.0,1,"PolicyEngine determined that the spouse is not eligible for Medicaid in Pennsylvania for 2026. The spouse, age 39, has a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of 5.31 times the Federal Poverty Level, which exceeds the income thresholds for all available Medicaid eligibility pathways in the state. With household income around $145,002, the spouse does not qualify through any of Pennsylvania's Medicaid categories—including those for parents, pregnant individuals, children, or disabled individuals—as their income substantially surpasses the relevant limits for each pathway. Consequently, the engine assigned an eligibility status of False with no qualifying category.", -us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,1.0,13,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is eligible for Medicaid in California as a senior-or-disabled individual. The person, age 67, qualifies through the optional senior-or-disabled category (a non-MAGI pathway) because they meet three conditions: they are aged or disabled (is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled = True), they satisfy the income test under this category (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible = True), and they meet the asset limits (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible = True). Additionally, the person satisfies California's immigration status requirements, having been in the United States for 5 years. Under the senior-or-disabled category, countable income is calculated by deducting health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, from gross income, which results in the household falling within California's income limits for this eligibility group.", +us,scenario_031,head_medicaid_eligible,1.0,13,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is eligible for Medicaid in California through the optional senior-or-disabled category. At 67 the head is aged, which meets the category's first condition (is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled = True) without SSI receipt or a disability; the adult expansion group (ages 19 to 64) does not apply, and in the engine's Medicaid rules Medicare eligibility bars only that group. Income follows SSI rules: Social Security ($9,445.47, counted in full), the private pension ($13,608) and the IRA distribution ($800) total $23,853.47; the $1,165 of alimony paid is not subtracted. California's $230 monthly income disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 general income exclusion, leaves countable income of $21,093.47, within the $22,024.80 limit, 138% of the 2026 federal poverty guideline for one person (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible = True). Countable resources are the $4,200 bank balance, under California's $130,000 limit for an individual (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible = True). The household lists no immigration status, so the engine's default status (citizen) applies and the immigration test passes.", us,scenario_071,head_medicaid_eligible,0.0,7,"PolicyEngine determined that this 76-year-old New York resident is not eligible for Medicaid (is_medicaid_eligible = False) because they do not qualify through any of the available eligibility pathways. While the person meets the immigration status requirement for Medicaid (is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible = True, having been in the US for 5 years), they fail to qualify under the primary eligibility categories tracked by the engine. Specifically, the person does not qualify for California's FFYP program (ca_ffyp_eligible = False) or Illinois's HBI program (il_hbi_eligible = False), and their medicaid_category is assigned as NONE, indicating no qualifying pathway. With a MAGI income level of 2.28 times the Federal Poverty Level, the household's income and other circumstances do not align with any of New York's Medicaid eligibility categories for this household composition and age.", us,scenario_085,head_medicaid_eligible,0.0,7,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for Medicaid in Pennsylvania in 2026, despite meeting the immigration status requirement. The person qualifies as immigration-eligible (having been in the US for 5 years), but this alone is insufficient for Medicaid eligibility. The engine evaluated two state-specific pathways—California's FFYP (Family Planning) program and Illinois's HBI (Health Benefits for Immigrants) program—both of which returned false, indicating the household does not qualify through these mechanisms. With a MAGI income of 3.69 times the federal poverty level and no qualifying Medicaid category identified, the person falls outside Pennsylvania's Medicaid eligibility pathways for 2026, resulting in an eligibility determination of False.", us,scenario_084,head_medicaid_eligible,0.0,7,"PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is not eligible for Medicaid in North Carolina in 2026, despite meeting the immigration status requirement. The person qualifies as immigration-eligible (having been in the US for 5 years), but this alone is insufficient for Medicaid eligibility. The engine assigned a medicaid_category value of 9, indicating no qualifying eligibility pathway, which directly resulted in is_medicaid_eligible being set to False. With a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of 1.56 times the Federal Poverty Level and no categorical eligibility through either the California FFYP or Illinois HBI programs, the household falls outside North Carolina's Medicaid coverage groups for this income and household composition.", diff --git a/app/public/paper/policybench.pdf b/app/public/paper/policybench.pdf index 2630f496..6da73bcd 100644 Binary files a/app/public/paper/policybench.pdf and b/app/public/paper/policybench.pdf differ diff --git a/app/public/paper/web/figures/positive_zero_scatter.png b/app/public/paper/web/figures/positive_zero_scatter.png index 787a6ac2..35745974 100644 Binary files a/app/public/paper/web/figures/positive_zero_scatter.png and b/app/public/paper/web/figures/positive_zero_scatter.png differ diff --git a/app/public/paper/web/index.html b/app/public/paper/web/index.html index fe427714..25aa047e 100644 --- a/app/public/paper/web/index.html +++ b/app/public/paper/web/index.html @@ -151,7 +151,7 @@

Table of contents

Abstract

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PolicyBench evaluates whether frontier language models can estimate household tax and benefit outputs from household facts without tools. This release covers the United States, drawing sampled households from the certified PolicyEngine populace microdataset and scoring answers against reference outputs from policyengine-us 2.15.17. It evaluates 46 frontier models on 100 households across 18 output groups, and reports three complementary scores: an exact-match rate as the headline deployability bar (a prediction counts only if it matches the PolicyEngine reference to the dollar for amounts or to the eligibility flag for booleans), a within-1% hit rate as a near-miss-tolerant companion, and a continuous bounded score that awards partial credit for close answers. The headline is exact match on a household-impact-weighted leaderboard: 86% of US reference outputs are exact zeros, and the weighting concentrates scores in the high-dollar output groups a hedge-to-zero strategy cannot answer, so the top model leads an always-zero baseline of 70.0% weighted exact by 25.0 points (Section 3.1 details the construction). The manuscript snapshot is a 100-household public preview, not a protected held-out leaderboard: the current public scenario explorer exposes prompts and reference outputs, so open-set leakage is a central limitation of any public ranking. In the frozen snapshot used for this manuscript (2026-09-30), the top-scoring US model on exact match is GPT-6 Sol at 95.0%, while GPT-5.4 nano is lowest at 65.3%. Within model families, newer is not always stronger: Claude Opus 4.8 scores 76.2% exact, below the 81.0% of the earlier Claude Opus 4.7. Multi-step tax quantities and positive-dollar benefit cases are materially harder than zero cases. The frozen audit annotations cover 7,860 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,856 of the snapshot’s 7,856 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits; 2,107 additional rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected or annotated. Every reference-suspect flag was adjudicated against primary sources and engine traces. PolicyBench rebuilt the references on 2026-09-29 with policyengine-us 2.15.17, the newest release when it began sweeping them that day. Each scored reference follows law published before PolicyBench froze the references on 2026-07-03. Where the engine projects a 2026 amount or takes one from a later publication, the reference holds the amount published before the freeze or, where none was published, the last amount published. PolicyBench excludes from scoring, for every model, the 28 outputs whose references rest on engine defects the audits found and upstream has not fixed, and the 28 whose references depend on an input the prompt does not state. The 0.7% of cells with a missing or unparsable answer remain scored as misses rather than dropped. The live benchmark is available at https://policybench.org.

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PolicyBench evaluates whether frontier language models can estimate household tax and benefit outputs from household facts without tools. This release covers the United States, drawing sampled households from the certified PolicyEngine populace microdataset and scoring answers against reference outputs from policyengine-us 2.15.17. It evaluates 46 frontier models on 100 households across 18 output groups, and reports three complementary scores: an exact-match rate as the headline deployability bar (a prediction counts only if it matches the PolicyEngine reference to the dollar for amounts or to the eligibility flag for booleans), a within-1% hit rate as a near-miss-tolerant companion, and a continuous bounded score that awards partial credit for close answers. The headline is exact match on a household-impact-weighted leaderboard: 86% of US reference outputs are exact zeros, and the weighting concentrates scores in the high-dollar output groups a hedge-to-zero strategy cannot answer, so the top model leads an always-zero baseline of 71.1% weighted exact by 24.7 points (Section 3.1 details the construction). The manuscript snapshot is a 100-household public preview, not a protected held-out leaderboard: the current public scenario explorer exposes prompts and reference outputs, so open-set leakage is a central limitation of any public ranking. In the frozen snapshot used for this manuscript (2026-09-30), the top-scoring US model on exact match is GPT-6 Sol at 95.8%, while GPT-5.4 nano is lowest at 66.5%. Within model families, newer is not always stronger: Claude Opus 4.8 scores 77.4% exact, below the 82.2% of the earlier Claude Opus 4.7. Multi-step tax quantities and positive-dollar benefit cases are materially harder than zero cases. The frozen audit annotations cover 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That universe contains 7,523 of the snapshot’s 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits; 2,072 additional rows with bounded score below 100 were not selected or annotated. Every reference-suspect flag was adjudicated against primary sources and engine traces. PolicyBench rebuilt the references on 2026-09-29 with policyengine-us 2.15.17, the newest release when it began sweeping them that day. Each scored reference follows law published before PolicyBench froze the references on 2026-07-03. Where the engine projects a 2026 amount or takes one from a later publication, the reference holds the amount published before the freeze or, where none was published, the last amount published. PolicyBench excludes from scoring, for every model, the 28 outputs whose references rest on engine defects the audits found and upstream has not fixed, and the 36 whose references depend on an input the prompt does not state. The 0.7% of cells with a missing or unparsable answer remain scored as misses rather than dropped. The live benchmark is available at https://policybench.org.

Introduction

Household tax-and-benefit estimation sits between arithmetic and policy discussion. Each case has numeric labels, but generating those labels requires filing status, household composition, income concepts, program thresholds, and jurisdiction-specific rules. PolicyBench measures whether models can map household records to those outputs.

Most current language-model evaluations do not test this mapping directly. General math benchmarks emphasize symbolic manipulation and exact final answers (Cobbe et al. 2021; Hendrycks et al. 2021), while generic question-answering benchmarks emphasize recall or instruction following. PolicyBench instead asks whether models can transform household facts into policy outputs without access to tools or simulators.

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Benchmark design

Headline metric: exact match

The headline metric is the exact-match rate: the share of requested outputs the model gets right to the dollar (or, for eligibility flags, to the boolean). This is the deployability bar. A tax filer, a benefit estimator, or a caseworker cannot ship “close” — a prediction off by $50 is no more usable than one off by $500, because neither matches the bottom line a downstream system or a household needs. For currency amounts, “exact” means within 1 currency unit of the reference value after numeric parsing. For binary outputs, “exact” means the parsed value is exactly the same 0/1 flag as the reference.

Exact match can be a deceptive headline in a zero-inflated panel — but only when the rate is computed unweighted. In the frozen manuscript snapshot, 86% of reference outputs are exact zeros: most sampled households are not eligible for any given program, owe no capital gains tax, do not phase into a refundable credit, and so on. A model that hedges to zero on every requested output earns full exact credit on every zero case, so a naive unweighted exact rate is dominated by those zeros — a hedge-to-zero model scores roughly 86% unweighted, leaving little room above the floor to separate models that actually understand the rules.

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The public leaderboard corrects for this by household-impact weighting. Each output group’s weight is its population-average share of the household’s dollar stake, computed as |ref| / max(|household_net_income|, Σ |ref|) per source household and averaged with calibrated household weights over the full populace population (Section 5.5 gives the full construction). Zero-reference rows are not removed — every row carries its output group’s weight — but the weighting concentrates mass in high-dollar output groups, which are rarely zero, so the share of weight on zero-reference rows falls from their 86% row share to 70.0%. An always-zero baseline therefore scores 70.0% weighted exact rather than the 86% it earns unweighted, and the top model clears that baseline by 25.0 points — a margin comparable to within-1%. Across the 46-model roster, the weighted exact rate spreads about as widely as within-1% and ranks models in nearly the same order, so exact match discriminates between rule comprehension and zero-hedging while preserving the to-the-dollar deployability meaning.

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The public leaderboard corrects for this by household-impact weighting. Each output group’s weight is its population-average share of the household’s dollar stake, computed as |ref| / max(|household_net_income|, Σ |ref|) per source household and averaged with calibrated household weights over the full populace population (Section 5.5 gives the full construction). Zero-reference rows are not removed — every row carries its output group’s weight — but the weighting concentrates mass in high-dollar output groups, which are rarely zero, so the share of weight on zero-reference rows falls from their 86% row share to 71.1%. An always-zero baseline therefore scores 71.1% weighted exact rather than the 86% it earns unweighted, and the top model clears that baseline by 24.7 points — a margin comparable to within-1%. Across the 46-model roster, the weighted exact rate spreads about as widely as within-1% and ranks models in nearly the same order, so exact match discriminates between rule comprehension and zero-hedging while preserving the to-the-dollar deployability meaning.

The exact rate is aggregated to a household score and then to a country score, with the same population-derived output weights that the within-1% companion and the bounded score use. Equal household weight preserves comparability across scenarios and slices. The leaderboard reports US results on this fixed test set.

Near-miss companion: within 1%

The within-1% hit rate is the near-miss-tolerant companion to the headline: the share of requested outputs the model gets within one percent of the PolicyEngine reference value. For currency amounts, “within 1%” means |pred − ref| ≤ 0.01 × |ref| when the reference is nonzero and |pred| ≤ 1 (the same one-currency-unit absolute tolerance used by exact match) when the reference is zero. Binary outputs are requested as integer 0/1 eligibility flags and scored identically to the exact-match metric.

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Secondary me

Aggregation proceeds in three steps. First, each household-output prediction receives a 0-100 score. Second, each household receives one model score: requested output rows are weighted by output-group weights constructed from the full weighting population, then renormalized within the household over outputs that are actually requested for that household. Person-level coverage flags are scored at the person row; their output-group weight is split across the relevant people in the household and is based on PolicyEngine value proxies where available. Third, the country score averages those household scores with equal household weight. The leaderboard reports US results on this fixed test set. Equal-output-group scores and other alternative views are reported as sensitivity checks.

The benchmark requires each model response to include numeric answers and one explanation per requested output. Both the exact-match rate and the bounded score use only the numeric answers. Explanations are retained for scenario exploration and qualitative error analysis; they should not be interpreted as faithful traces of model reasoning.

Because explanations are required, the canonical task measures policy estimation under a public-facing structured-response contract, not isolated arithmetic accuracy. Prompt fairness is part of the benchmark contract. The current release uses one prompt template per country, with no model-specific tuning. Models receive the same household facts and requested outputs. They receive no web or external tool access. The prompt sets unlisted numeric inputs to 0, unlisted boolean or status facts to false, and household characteristics as constant over the tax-benefit year. Provider-specific differences are limited to structured-output transport, request shape, and the reasoning setup in Table 2. The harness sends no reasoning-control or sampling parameters. It leaves reasoning effort, temperature, and related decoding controls at provider defaults. The frozen GPT-5.5 wave uses provider-default reasoning effort.

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The forced tool_choice suppresses Claude’s extended thinking in this snapshot (sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md). A labeled sensitivity with tool_choice: "auto" is published beside the board. Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, closes the interaction from the API side: it rejects forced tool use with an error, so its row answers through the JSON transport and reasons at the provider default; a sensitivity run with the tool declared under tool_choice: "auto" scores 0.9 points above that row. Claude Opus 5.5, released September 21, 2026, and Claude Sonnet 5.5, released September 28, 2026, reject forced tool use the same way, so their rows also answer through the JSON transport and reason at the provider default; neither has a sensitivity run. The next board version moves every model to tool_choice: "auto" so each provider’s default reasoning posture can engage.

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The forced tool_choice suppresses Claude’s extended thinking in this snapshot (sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md). A labeled sensitivity with tool_choice: "auto" is published beside the board. Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1, 2026, closes the interaction from the API side: it rejects forced tool use with an error, so its row answers through the JSON transport and reasons at the provider default; a sensitivity run with the tool declared under tool_choice: "auto" scores 1.0 points above that row. Claude Opus 5.5, released September 21, 2026, and Claude Sonnet 5.5, released September 28, 2026, reject forced tool use the same way, so their rows also answer through the JSON transport and reason at the provider default; neither has a sensitivity run. The next board version moves every model to tool_choice: "auto" so each provider’s default reasoning posture can engage.

Two dimensions on which requests were not identical across models are request shape and answer transport (Table 2). 10 of the 46 models could not reliably complete the whole-scenario request because their serving stacks rejected the structured-output call, exhausted completion budgets mid-response, or timed out. They instead answered the same prompt template over subsets of the requested outputs, one to three outputs per request. Subsetting gives each response fewer requested outputs and a fresh completion budget over the same household facts, so the accommodation, if it moves scores at all, should favor the chunked models; their scores are not strictly comparable to whole-scenario scores. This accommodation is closed going forward: a model added after this snapshot either answers the canonical whole-scenario request or is listed as not scorable rather than accommodated.

One row, GLM-5.3-Flash (preview), answered as a cloaked OpenRouter listing called “Ox Alpha” and is labeled a preview. It was publicly callable under the canonical whole-scenario request and forced-tool transport, and its date is its OpenRouter listing date. After the row’s run, Z.ai identified the listing as GLM-5.3-Flash (OpenRouter 2026); the row carries the disclosed name and keeps the preview qualifier, because whether the checkpoint that answered is the one later released under that name has not been stated, and it is distinct from the GLM-5.3 row, which is Z.ai’s larger model called under its own id. Its artifact key stays ox-alpha, the name it was queried under.

Frozen snapshot and open-set status

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Frozen snapshot an Model response date -2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30 +2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29 Policy period @@ -222,7 +222,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Frozen export SHA-256 prefix -US 1e029aaa87d1 +US b1da3eae058c Snapshot manifest @@ -299,7 +299,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an -
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@@ -333,7 +333,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Fable 5 claude-fable-5 2026-06-09 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request thinking does not engage under forced tool call @@ -342,7 +342,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Fable 5.1 claude-fable-5-1 2026-09-01 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -351,7 +351,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Haiku 4.5 claude-haiku-4-5-20251001 2025-10-15 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request provider default @@ -360,7 +360,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Opus 4.7 claude-opus-4-7 2026-04-16 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request provider default @@ -369,7 +369,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Opus 4.8 claude-opus-4-8 2026-05-28 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request provider default @@ -378,7 +378,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Opus 5 claude-opus-5 2026-07-24 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario thinking does not engage under forced tool call @@ -387,7 +387,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Opus 5.5 claude-opus-5-5 2026-09-21 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -396,7 +396,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Sonnet 4.6 claude-sonnet-4-6 2026-02-17 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request provider default @@ -405,7 +405,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Sonnet 5 claude-sonnet-5 2026-06-30 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 1 output/​request thinking does not engage under forced tool call @@ -414,7 +414,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Claude Sonnet 5.5 claude-sonnet-5-5 2026-09-28 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -423,7 +423,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 openrouter/​deepseek/​deepseek-v4-flash-0731 2026-07-31† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 98,304-token shared budget @@ -432,7 +432,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an DeepSeek V4 Pro deepseek/​deepseek-v4-pro 2026-04-24† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -441,7 +441,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 openrouter/​deepseek/​deepseek-v4-pro-0813 2026-08-13† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 98,304-token shared budget @@ -450,7 +450,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an DeepSeek V4.1 Flash deepseek/​deepseek-flash 2026-09-10† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -459,7 +459,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3 Flash Preview gemini/​gemini-3-flash-preview 2025-12-17 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default @@ -468,7 +468,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview gemini/​gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview 2026-03-03 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default @@ -477,7 +477,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview gemini/​gemini-3.1-pro-preview 2026-02-19 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default @@ -486,7 +486,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.5 Flash gemini/​gemini-3.5-flash 2026-05-19 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default @@ -495,7 +495,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite gemini/​gemini-3.5-flash-lite 2026-07-21 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -504,7 +504,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.6 Flash gemini/​gemini-3.6-flash 2026-07-21 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -513,7 +513,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.7 Flash gemini/​gemini-3.7-flash 2026-08-13 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -522,7 +522,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Gemini 3.8 Flash gemini/​gemini-3.8-flash 2026-09-02 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -531,7 +531,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GLM-5.2 openrouter/​z-ai/​glm-5.2 2026-06-13† -1,795/​1,928 +1,788/​1,920 JSON 3 outputs/​request provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -540,7 +540,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GLM-5.3 openrouter/​z-ai/​glm-5.3 2026-08-14† -1,857/​1,928 +1,849/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -549,7 +549,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.4 mini gpt-5.4-mini 2026-03-17 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default @@ -558,7 +558,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.4 nano gpt-5.4-nano 2026-03-17 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.5 gpt-5.5 2026-04-23 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool 3 outputs/​request provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -576,7 +576,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.6 Luna gpt-5.6-luna 2026-07-09 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -585,7 +585,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.6 Sol gpt-5.6-sol 2026-07-09 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -594,7 +594,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-5.6 Terra gpt-5.6-terra 2026-07-09 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -603,7 +603,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-6 Astra gpt-6-astra 2026-09-04 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -612,7 +612,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-6 Luna gpt-6-luna 2026-09-22 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -621,7 +621,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-6 Sol gpt-6-sol 2026-09-22 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GPT-6.1 Sol gpt-6.1-sol 2026-09-29 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -639,7 +639,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Grok 4.3 xai/​grok-4.3 2026-04-17 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default @@ -648,7 +648,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Grok 4.5 xai/​grok-4.5 2026-07-08 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -657,7 +657,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Grok 4.6 xai/​grok-4.6 2026-08-12 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -666,7 +666,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Grok 4.7 xai/​grok-4.7 2026-09-21 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -675,7 +675,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Grok Build 0.1 xai/​grok-build-0.1 2026-05-29 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default @@ -684,7 +684,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Inkling openrouter/​thinkingmachines/​inkling 2026-07-15† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 49,152-token shared budget @@ -693,7 +693,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Kimi K2.6 openrouter/​moonshotai/​kimi-k2.6 2026-04-20† -1,538/​1,928 +1,537/​1,920 JSON 3 outputs/​request provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -702,7 +702,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Kimi K3 openrouter/​moonshotai/​kimi-k3 2026-07-16† -1,870/​1,928 +1,862/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 49,152-token shared budget @@ -711,7 +711,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an MiniMax M3 openrouter/​minimax/​minimax-m3 2026-06-01† -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -720,7 +720,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an GLM-5.3-Flash (preview) openrouter/​stealth/​ox-alpha 2026-08-20 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 forced tool whole scenario provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -729,7 +729,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Qwen3.7-max openrouter/​qwen/​qwen3.7-max 2026-05-19 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON 3 outputs/​request provider default; 16,384-token shared budget @@ -738,7 +738,7 @@

Frozen snapshot an Qwen3.8-Max openrouter/​qwen/​qwen3.8-max 2026-08-03 -1,928/​1,928 +1,920/​1,920 JSON whole scenario provider default; 98,304-token shared budget @@ -802,13 +802,14 @@

Disability in the household facts

Reference-output credibility

PolicyBench treats PolicyEngine outputs as benchmark reference outputs, not as administrative records. The reference source is nevertheless stronger than an ad hoc answer key: PolicyEngine is open source, used for household calculators and reform analysis, and externally checked in specific domains. No. 10 Downing Street’s data science team adapted PolicyEngine’s open-source microsimulation model for experimental policy simulation, with validation against external projections before use (Woodruff 2026; Ghenis 2026). In the US, PolicyEngine (2024) reports matching the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) TAXSIM-35 model (Feenberg and Coutts 1993) to the cent on the vast majority of cases for the 2021 tax year across hundreds of thousands of tax units per state, with state-specific differences documented in the integration tests. We do not restate that comparison as a single percentage because the published source uses qualitative phrasing rather than a headline accuracy number. PolicyEngine has also signed a memorandum of understanding (Ghenis and Makarchuk 2025) with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for future validation work against its Policy Rules Database (2026). The Atlanta Fed sources are a caveat rather than evidence of completed validation for this benchmark: they document planned collaboration and the comparison source, not finished checks of the frozen PolicyBench outputs. Taken together, these sources support using PolicyEngine as a transparent reference implementation with partial external validation, but they do not validate every benchmark output.

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This does not make PolicyEngine infallible, so we treated the reference outputs as claims to be attacked rather than assumptions. Across development and each later audit, the model-assisted review covered 7,860 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That selected universe contains 7,856 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits; 2,107 additional rows with bounded score below 100 were not annotated. Reviewers adjudicated each reference-suspect flag by hand against primary sources, including statutes, regulations, and published program parameters, and against the engine’s computation traces. Before the September 22 wave, reviewers had raised 35 reference-suspect flags. Thirty-one dissolved under adjudication, with the reviewer’s hypothesis failing against a primary source (stale thresholds, missed program mergers, missed federal-conformity elections, misread eligibility-income definitions) or against the engine trace. Four were genuine: two Head Start eligibility flags and one New Jersey state income tax cell reflected policyengine-us defects (an age-window bound and a filing-threshold floor the benchmarked path bypassed), and one SNAP cell rested on a scenario whose encoded inputs did not match the disability status its prompt implied. The engine defects were fixed upstream (policyengine-us #8845 and #8846, plus #8844, found in the same review but affecting no benchmark cell), and this snapshot’s scored reference outputs come from the fixed engine, policyengine-us 2.15.17. The mis-encoded scenario is disclosed under Limitations pending the next scenario refresh. Table 4 summarizes the reviewed discrepancy classes and outcomes.

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This does not make PolicyEngine infallible, so we treated the reference outputs as claims to be attacked rather than assumptions. Across development and each later audit, the model-assisted review covered 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1. That selected universe contains 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits; 2,072 additional rows with bounded score below 100 were not annotated. Reviewers adjudicated each reference-suspect flag by hand against primary sources, including statutes, regulations, and published program parameters, and against the engine’s computation traces. Before the September 22 wave, reviewers had raised 35 reference-suspect flags. Thirty-one dissolved under adjudication, with the reviewer’s hypothesis failing against a primary source (stale thresholds, missed program mergers, missed federal-conformity elections, misread eligibility-income definitions) or against the engine trace. Four were genuine: two Head Start eligibility flags and one New Jersey state income tax cell reflected policyengine-us defects (an age-window bound and a filing-threshold floor the benchmarked path bypassed), and one SNAP cell rested on a scenario whose encoded inputs did not match the disability status its prompt implied. The engine defects were fixed upstream (policyengine-us #8845 and #8846, plus #8844, found in the same review but affecting no benchmark cell), and this snapshot’s scored reference outputs come from the fixed engine, policyengine-us 2.15.17. The mis-encoded scenario is disclosed under Limitations pending the next scenario refresh. Table 4 summarizes the reviewed discrepancy classes and outcomes.

The audit wave run with the September 22 additions used a stronger judge, Claude Opus 5.5, and it found what the earlier waves had not. The judge flagged 39 references. Adjudication against primary sources and sandbox runs of the reference engine affirmed 5 of them, traced 8 to inputs the prompt never lists, replaced 6 with a regenerated reference, and confirmed 20 as defects in policyengine-us 1.755.4, the version behind the references then. The judge’s stated hypothesis was not always the defect: a Wisconsin flag blamed a missing retirement exclusion that the engine does apply, on a path the benchmarked output skips, and a Montana flag cited a child tax credit that was never enacted, while the reference was wrong for another reason. The judge also sees only the cases a new model joins, so its flags sample each defect rather than bound it. Each root cause’s rule was therefore implemented as a sandbox fix on the same engine version and every reference recomputed under it. Of those root causes, 8 had been fixed in policyengine-us after the references were frozen (#8839, #9162, #9301, #9313, #9318, #9363 and #9586): capital gain distributions, New York’s renter cap, the CalEITC’s lookup at adjusted gross income, and the SNAP rounding and SNAP child support option described below. For the September 22 references, PolicyBench applied each fix on that engine version to the scored references it moves, 15 in all, and policyengine-us 2.15.17 contains all 8 fixes. An output one of them moves that an unfixed cause also moves stays excluded. The capital gain fix as first built also extended Wisconsin’s 30 percent capital gain exclusion (Wis. Stat. 71.05(6)(b)9) to the distributions. The upstream fix does not, so that part is recorded as its own defect, not fixed upstream, measured on top of the upstream fix and Wisconsin’s published amounts, and the two outputs it moves are excluded (one of them already excluded for another Wisconsin defect). Every output a defect not yet fixed upstream moves by more than a dollar is excluded from scoring for every model: 28 outputs in 20 households are recorded as engine-defect exclusions across 11 root causes, and 8 of them had never been flagged (an output such a defect moves that was already excluded for an unlisted input keeps that record). They stay excluded until references built on a fixed engine replace them. A second model, GPT-6 Astra, then re-derived the sandbox fixes the first pass built from primary sources and reran their sweeps. It narrowed several fixes to the benchmark year and filers they reach, reclassified two root causes as unlisted inputs (the type of a household’s survivor benefits, and whether listed mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies), and found that a California credit move came from a separate defect: the engine never looks the CalEITC up a second time at adjusted gross income, as the credit worksheet requires.

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The same wave tested a failure mode no judge flagged. policyengine-us fills a parameter’s values past its last encoded year by projecting it with a price index, so a 2026 reference can rest on a forecast rather than on the amount a government published. Every reference was recomputed with each projected 2026 value held at its last encoded value, and each projected amount behind a moved output was then sourced. Where the government published the 2026 amount before the freeze, the reference takes it: Minnesota’s, Michigan’s and Missouri’s brackets, deductions and exemptions, and Maryland’s withholding allowance, which reaches federal tax through the state and local tax deduction. Wisconsin had published its 2026 brackets and deductions too, but every Wisconsin output they move is excluded for an engine defect, so they enter only those outputs’ corrected values. Where no 2026 amount published before the freeze was found, the reference takes the last amount published: California’s indexed amounts, whose 2026 factor rests on June 2026 prices; the IRS optional sales tax tables, whose 2026 edition had not been found by September 22; Idaho’s zero-rate threshold; Maryland’s return deduction; and SNAP’s FY2027 figures, published on 2026-08-21. Illinois’s exemption and Minnesota’s child credit projections matched the published amounts. These corrections change parameter values and no rule, so the affected references were regenerated with the same engine version rather than excluded: 23 references, most of them SNAP. With the upstream fixes, the September 22 release regenerated 26 references in 24 households, 13 of them SNAP. The reference sidecar records each regenerated value with the fix that produced it, and the fixes, the recomputation of every reference under each, and the verification reports are committed with the snapshot (reference_audit/2026-09-22).

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The same wave tested a failure mode no judge flagged. policyengine-us fills a parameter’s values past its last encoded year by projecting it with a price index, so a 2026 reference can rest on a forecast rather than on the amount a government published. Every reference was recomputed with each projected 2026 value held at its last encoded value, and each projected amount behind a moved output was then sourced. Where the government published the 2026 amount before the freeze, the reference takes it: Minnesota’s, Michigan’s and Missouri’s brackets, deductions and exemptions, and Maryland’s withholding allowance. policyengine-us reads the allowance only in its estimate of Maryland income tax withheld, which fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction; the one Maryland federal output that estimate moves is excluded (reference_audit/2026-10-05). Wisconsin had published its 2026 brackets and deductions too, but every Wisconsin output they move is excluded for an engine defect, so they enter only those outputs’ corrected values. Where no 2026 amount published before the freeze was found, the reference takes the last amount published: California’s indexed amounts, whose 2026 factor rests on June 2026 prices; the IRS optional sales tax tables, whose 2026 edition had not been found by September 22; Idaho’s zero-rate threshold; Maryland’s return deduction; and SNAP’s FY2027 figures, published on 2026-08-21. Illinois’s exemption and Minnesota’s child credit projections matched the published amounts. These corrections change parameter values and no rule, so the affected references were regenerated with the same engine version rather than excluded: 23 references, most of them SNAP. With the upstream fixes, the September 22 release regenerated 26 references in 24 households, 13 of them SNAP. The reference sidecar records each regenerated value with the fix that produced it, and the fixes, the recomputation of every reference under each, and the verification reports are committed with the snapshot (reference_audit/2026-09-22).

The SNAP convention as first built also corrected the engine’s SNAP arithmetic, and an independent review of the snapshot separated those corrections from the parameter holds. They are engine defects, each fixed in policyengine-us after the freeze (#9162 and #9318), so the SNAP references apply the fixes: the engine kept cents in the allotment, where 7 CFR 273.10(e)(2)(ii)(A) requires a whole-dollar allotment; it returned a minimum benefit of $23.84 a month, where 7 CFR 273.10(e)(2)(ii)(C) rounds 8 percent of the one-person maximum to the nearest dollar ($24); it floored net income, which 7 CFR 273.10(e)(1)(ii) requires a state to round to the nearest dollar at each step or to calculate by its TANF procedure, which may keep cents; and it compared income with unrounded income standards. Given the engine’s household size, eligibility and floored net income, the Axiom rules engine’s encoding of 7 U.S.C. 2017(a) reproduces the whole-dollar allotment of all 19 households the first SNAP convention module changed, in each month from January to September (171 of 171 monthly comparisons), and the federal minimum benefit; it did not test New Jersey’s state minimum, and it covers the allotment rounding, not the net income rounding the published references also apply. Recomputing SNAP with net income’s cents kept, rather than rounded to the nearest dollar as the upstream fix does, moves no scored reference by more than the dollar tolerance. One SNAP defect is not fixed upstream: the engine still grants the heat-and-eat standard utility allowance to households without an elderly or disabled member, which P.L. 119-21 section 10103 ended in July 2025, and the scored output it moves is excluded. That household’s prompt calls its head disabled but states none of the routes by which 7 U.S.C. 2012(j) defines a disabled member, such as receiving SSI or Social Security disability benefits; read the other way, the allowance would stand, and so would the reference the publication conventions and upstream SNAP fixes give ($3,576, which the output would carry if scored), so the output is excluded on either reading. One more SNAP defect was found after the September 22 release and fixed upstream on 2026-09-24: the engine’s values for the SNAP child support option carried the opposite meaning from the one its formulas read. A state may exclude legally obligated child support paid from gross income (7 CFR 273.9(c)(17)); a state that does not must deduct it from net income (273.9(d)(5)). For 2026 the engine excluded it in 37 jurisdictions that USDA’s SNAP State Options Report lists as deducting it, Michigan among them, and deducted it in 9 of the 14 it lists as excluding it. Recomputed under the fix (policyengine-us #9586), one reference moves: a one-person Michigan household that pays child support stayed within the 200 percent gross limit of Michigan’s broad-based categorical eligibility only because the engine excluded the payments, so the engine granted it the $24 monthly minimum; counting the payments, as Michigan does, leaves it ineligible, and the regenerated reference is $0.

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PolicyBench rebuilt the references on 2026-09-29 with policyengine-us 2.15.17, the newest release when it began sweeping the references that day (uploaded 00:23 UTC), in place of 1.755.4. It computes each scored reference with policyengine_us.Simulation. The snapshot also records policyengine.py 6.1.2 for provenance; its certified US bundle carries an older policyengine-us, and policyengine.py does not load beside 2.15.17. PolicyBench ported the publication conventions to the new version. The SNAP convention holds each FY2026 figure directly for October to December 2026, because the new version carries USDA’s FY2027 figures as published values. policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts Maryland county income tax in its state income tax. PolicyBench’s state income tax output leaves local tax out, so an adapter restores that scope, and the county tax stays in the federal state and local tax deduction. policyengine-us #9261 changed from 40 hours to 0 the default of the weekly-hours input that SNAP’s work rules read, so the scenario builder also passes each prompt’s stated usual weekly hours under that input’s name. After the port, PolicyBench grouped every output that still moved by root cause. An investigator settled each root cause from the upstream commits, the engine code of both versions and primary legal sources with their publication dates, and an independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The move changes 4 scored references (Table 4). Two take law published before the freeze that policyengine-us 1.755.4 did not encode: New Jersey’s child tax credit schedule for 2026 to 2028 (P.L.2026, c.26, approved June 30, 2026), and Arizona’s broad-based categorical eligibility limit for SNAP, which Arizona raised from 185 to 200 percent of the poverty guideline starting with benefit month March 2026. Two follow engine corrections: policyengine-us added child support received to school-meal income (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and policyengine-us #9425 corrected the rounding in New York’s Empire State child credit phase-out. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, 3 federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: the new version counts a listed state and local tax refund as income (policyengine-us #9422), and whether any of it is income depends on whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it (26 U.S.C. 111(a)), which the prompt does not say. The re-review of a California household’s excluded SNAP output also flagged a scored output the move did not change: the head’s Medicaid eligibility. The head’s income is above the 138 percent limit for the adult expansion group, so only a disability pathway leads to Medi-Cal, and California’s Working Disabled Program requires SSI’s definition of disability, the unlisted input that already excludes the household’s SNAP. policyengine-us 2.15.17 tests the general disability flag there and gives 1 under either reading; with the program’s test reading SSI’s definition, the head qualifies only by meeting it, and PolicyBench excluded the output. Another 2 references move by less than the dollar tolerance. The 56 excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on (52 computed with policyengine-us 1.755.4, 4 with 2.15.17), and PolicyBench re-reviewed the 19 of them that move on 2.15.17; all stay excluded. policyengine-us 2.17.0, the newest release when PolicyBench checked PyPI on 2026-09-29 at 14:58 UTC, gives the same value as 2.15.17 for all 1,984 outputs under the same conventions and adapter. The reference sidecar lists every change, and reference_audit/2026-09-28 holds the recomputation of every output, the investigations and the reviews.

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PolicyBench rebuilt the references on 2026-09-29 with policyengine-us 2.15.17, the newest release when it began sweeping the references that day (uploaded 00:23 UTC), in place of 1.755.4. It computes each scored reference with policyengine_us.Simulation. The snapshot also records policyengine.py 6.1.2 for provenance; its certified US bundle carries an older policyengine-us, and policyengine.py does not load beside 2.15.17. PolicyBench ported the publication conventions to the new version. The SNAP convention holds each FY2026 figure directly for October to December 2026, because the new version carries USDA’s FY2027 figures as published values. policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts Maryland county income tax in its state income tax. PolicyBench’s state income tax output leaves local tax out, so an adapter restores that scope, and the county tax stays in the federal state and local tax deduction. policyengine-us #9261 changed from 40 hours to 0 the default of the weekly-hours input that SNAP’s work rules read, so the scenario builder also passes each prompt’s stated usual weekly hours under that input’s name. After the port, PolicyBench grouped every output that still moved by root cause. An investigator settled each root cause from the upstream commits, the engine code of both versions and primary legal sources with their publication dates, and an independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The move changes 4 scored references (Table 4). Two take law published before the freeze that policyengine-us 1.755.4 did not encode: New Jersey’s child tax credit schedule for 2026 to 2028 (P.L.2026, c.26, approved June 30, 2026), and Arizona’s broad-based categorical eligibility limit for SNAP, which Arizona raised from 185 to 200 percent of the poverty guideline starting with benefit month March 2026. Two follow engine corrections: policyengine-us added child support received to school-meal income (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and policyengine-us #9425 corrected the rounding in New York’s Empire State child credit phase-out. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, 3 federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: the new version counts a listed state and local tax refund as income (policyengine-us #9422), and whether any of it is income depends on whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it (26 U.S.C. 111(a)), which the prompt does not say. The re-review of a California household’s excluded SNAP output also flagged a scored output the move did not change: the head’s Medicaid eligibility. The head’s income is above the 138 percent limit for the adult expansion group, so only a disability pathway leads to Medi-Cal, and California’s Working Disabled Program requires SSI’s definition of disability, the unlisted input that already excludes the household’s SNAP. policyengine-us 2.15.17 tests the general disability flag there and gives 1 under either reading; with the program’s test reading SSI’s definition, the head qualifies only by meeting it, and PolicyBench excluded the output. Another 2 references move by less than the dollar tolerance. PolicyBench re-reviewed the 19 excluded outputs whose values move on 2.15.17; all stay excluded, each with the value it was decided on. policyengine-us 2.17.0, the newest release when PolicyBench checked PyPI on 2026-09-29 at 14:58 UTC, gives the same value as 2.15.17 for all 1,984 outputs under the same conventions and adapter. The reference sidecar lists every change, and reference_audit/2026-09-28 holds the recomputation of every output, the investigations and the reviews.

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A review of release dashboard-data-20260930 on 2026-10-05 found three more inputs that no prompt states behind scored references; no judge had flagged the scored outputs they move (reference_audit/2026-10-05, reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b and reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll). The first is the state income tax in the federal state and local tax deduction, which takes the state income tax a household paid during the year, or general sales tax instead (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3) and (b)(5)). No prompt states state income tax withheld or paid. policyengine-us fills that input with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of withholding on the person’s whole federal adjusted gross income rather than the household’s state liability, and the references take the estimate. Read as the household paying its 2026 state income tax during the year, or as paying none, the federal income tax of five households moves, three of them scored. The second is Medicare enrollment and a Part B premium. policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled and adds the modeled Part B premium, $2,434.80 for 2026 where the Medicare Savings Program does not pay it, to medical expenses; no prompt states either. The prompt’s instruction to assume program take-up supports the reference, and its rules that unlisted numbers are zero and that unlisted expenses and health coverage are not to be inferred support the other reading. Without the premium, the outputs of one household move: it itemizes, so its federal income tax moves, and Virginia’s itemized deductions start from the federal ones, so its Virginia income tax moves too. The third is whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium. The payroll output counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts and New York the law lets the employer deduct an employee share of such a premium from wages, up to a cap, but does not require it, so the employee pays from $0 to the cap at the employer’s choice. The four payroll references from those states count the cap, and the prompt does not state the employer’s choice; read as the amount the law requires of the employee, each is employee federal payroll tax alone. California’s, Connecticut’s, New Jersey’s and Pennsylvania’s employee contributions are owed by the worker and withheld by the employer, and the review left those references as they were. Each audit recomputed every output on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with the publication conventions, under each reading, and each sweep’s baseline reproduces all 1,928 references that release scored. Beyond the one-dollar tolerance, the sweeps move eight scored outputs, which PolicyBench excluded, and two federal income tax outputs already excluded for other reasons; they move no output that is still scored by any amount. The eight records are computed on policyengine-us 2.15.17, whose values are the references. The 64 excluded outputs now keep the values they were decided on (52 computed with policyengine-us 1.755.4, 12 with 2.15.17).

The audit tooling itself required hardening, which we report because it changes how much the annotations can be trusted. The derivation narratives displayed alongside reference values are generated from engine computation traces. After earlier model-written narratives were found to misattribute eligibility pathways, mechanical validators now enforce that each narrative states the engine’s actual mechanism — for example, that a child ineligible for CHIP because they qualify for Medicaid is never described as failing a CHIP income test. The failure-audit judge reads these grounded narratives together with engine facts and must return a per-model diagnosis naming the specific rule or computation the model missed. It is barred from re-adjudicating the reference in prose: hedged or reference-adjudicating verdicts are mechanically rejected and re-judged, and genuine reference doubt is routed to a structured flag that triggers the manual adjudication described above.

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After freezing the snapshot and completing response-contract repairs, we annotated the 7,860 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1 and their scenario-output cases. Table 5 reports the final classifications for that legacy-threshold audit universe. It contains 7,856 of the snapshot’s 7,856 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. The 2,107 other rows with bounded score below 100 fall outside the selection and have no audit annotation. Each annotated row on a scored output resolves to one of two final classes: llm_error (a substantive miscalculation, with a per-model diagnosis naming the rule or computation the model missed) or parse_contract_failure (a missing or unparsable answer, classified deterministically). Two further classes describe outputs the snapshot does not score, and each such output is removed from scoring for every model, so no model gains or loses from it. prompt_ambiguity marks 28 outputs whose reference depends on an input the prompt never lists, so a careful reader could take the stated facts either way; for each, the reference was recomputed under the other reading with the engine version that produced it, and it moved (the California Medicaid output once the engine’s Working Disabled Program test read SSI’s definition, as the program does). reference_engine_defect marks the 28 outputs where that engine misapplies the law on stated facts. Together they remove 56 outputs in 39 households, and of the 2,111 annotated rows on those outputs, 2,056 carry one of these classes as description rather than as a scored class and the rest are answers that never parsed. A scored reference also follows from law published before the references were frozen on 2026-07-03. USDA published the FY2027 SNAP cost-of-living figures on 2026-08-21, after the freeze and after most rows were answered, so grading any model on them would score it against law it could not have seen; SNAP’s October to December months therefore hold the FY2026 figures, and the publication conventions described above apply the same rule to every projected amount. Every model is therefore scored on 1,928 of its 1,984 requested outputs. The exclusion record (reference_exclusions.json) travels with the frozen run and the manifest pins it. No scored row remains classified as a prompt ambiguity, unresolved reference issue, or needs-review item, and zero annotated rows carry a standing reference-suspect flag. The audit pipeline is model-assisted, with developer adjudication of each reference-suspect or prompt-ambiguity flag rather than independent external validation; this snapshot records 69 cases of developer adjudication, kept beside the annotations with the judge’s verdict and the reasoning. Three judge models produced the verdicts, and all are board rows: GPT-5.6 Sol, called through the Codex CLI, judged the cases whose verdicts predate the September 2026 additions; Claude Opus 5, called through the Claude Code CLI, judged the 116 cases the September 5 additions joined that no later judge re-judged; and Claude Opus 5.5 judged the cases the September 22, September 29 and September 30 additions joined or a reference revision changed (260 of 674 cases), its own row’s cases included. Each verdict is recorded in a per-case provenance sidecar in the audit tree. Judge verdicts classify misses after scoring and change no score, and every reference flag a judge raised is settled by the developer adjudication above. The unlisted inputs behind the unlisted-input exclusions are the SSI disability criterion (meets_ssi_disability_criteria), false for every person in the certified June 2026 microdata build; months of SSDI receipt (months_receiving_social_security_disability), never carried by the data and integer-typed, which the prompt builder does not expose; weekly hours worked (weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr), which policyengine-us 1.755.4 defaulted to 40 where the prompt treats unlisted numbers as zero; whether survivor benefits other than Social Security are a pension or annuity, which the prompt does not say and which decides both their taxability and whether they count toward Wisconsin’s homestead credit income; who paid for the coverage behind listed employment disability benefits, which decides whether they are taxable; whether listed home mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies, which decides whether SNAP counts it as a shelter cost; whether an adult tax dependent is the claiming filers’ child, which decides whose income counts in that dependent’s Medicaid household; whether the tax behind a listed state and local tax refund reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it, which decides how much of the refund is income; and whether listed interest comes from a Massachusetts bank deposit, which moves only an output already recorded as an engine-defect exclusion. One definition was also open: the output definition of federal income tax before refundable credits does not say whether it includes the net investment income tax, which the reference adds and Form 1040 reports after its line for tax after nonrefundable credits, so the outputs that tax moves are excluded as well. The prompt lists a general is disabled fact and never a program-specific determination (Section 4.2). Every exclusion but the California Medicaid output was derived mechanically rather than from which models missed: each is an output that a sweep of every reference, under an alternative reading or an engine defect’s sandbox fix, moved on policyengine-us 1.755.4 or, for the state and local tax refund reading, on 2.15.17. On 1.755.4, PolicyBench excluded every output an alternative reading of the September 22 audit moved and every output a defect not fixed upstream moved by more than a dollar, which is why the set includes three SNAP outputs that move through the elderly-or-disabled SNAP rules (in two of those households SSI itself stays at zero; in the third an aged member already receives SSI and the disabled member would add a second benefit). On 2.15.17, PolicyBench re-ran four of those sweeps (the IRA deduction limit fix, the net investment income tax definition, and the readings for mortgage residence and 40 unlisted weekly hours) and ran a new one for the state and local tax refund reading. Beyond the one-dollar exact-match tolerance, the new sweep moves three previously scored federal income tax outputs, and PolicyBench excluded them. Set against the same 2.15.17 calculation without its fix or reading, no sweep moves a scored output by more than the tolerance, and three scored outputs move by less. PolicyBench did not re-run the other sweeps on 2.15.17. On 2.15.17, the California Medicaid output stays at 1 under either reading of SSI’s disability criterion, because the engine’s Working Disabled Program test reads the general flag in its place. PolicyBench found that output when it re-reviewed the household’s excluded SNAP output, and excluded it because the program itself requires SSI’s definition of disability.

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After freezing the snapshot and completing response-contract repairs, we annotated the 7,527 rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1 and their scenario-output cases. Table 5 reports the final classifications for that legacy-threshold audit universe. It contains 7,523 of the snapshot’s 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. The 2,072 other rows with bounded score below 100 fall outside the selection and have no audit annotation. Each annotated row on a scored output resolves to one of two final classes: llm_error (a substantive miscalculation, with a per-model diagnosis naming the rule or computation the model missed) or parse_contract_failure (a missing or unparsable answer, classified deterministically). Two further classes describe outputs the snapshot does not score, and each such output is removed from scoring for every model, so no model gains or loses from it. prompt_ambiguity marks 36 outputs whose reference depends on an input the prompt never lists, so a careful reader could take the stated facts either way; for each, the reference was recomputed under the other reading with the engine version that produced it, and it moved (the California Medicaid output once the engine’s Working Disabled Program test read SSI’s definition, as the program does). reference_engine_defect marks the 28 outputs where that engine misapplies the law on stated facts. Together they remove 64 outputs in 42 households, and of the 2,444 annotated rows on those outputs, 2,381 carry one of these classes as description rather than as a scored class and the rest are answers that never parsed. A scored reference also follows from law published before the references were frozen on 2026-07-03. USDA published the FY2027 SNAP cost-of-living figures on 2026-08-21, after the freeze and after most rows were answered, so grading any model on them would score it against law it could not have seen; SNAP’s October to December months therefore hold the FY2026 figures, and the publication conventions described above apply the same rule to every projected amount. Every model is therefore scored on 1,920 of its 1,984 requested outputs. The exclusion record (reference_exclusions.json) travels with the frozen run and the manifest pins it. No scored row remains classified as a prompt ambiguity, unresolved reference issue, or needs-review item, and zero annotated rows carry a standing reference-suspect flag. The audit pipeline is model-assisted, with developer adjudication of each reference-suspect or prompt-ambiguity flag rather than independent external validation; this snapshot records 77 cases of developer adjudication, kept beside the annotations with the judge’s verdict and the reasoning. Three judge models produced the verdicts, and all are board rows: GPT-5.6 Sol, called through the Codex CLI, judged the cases whose verdicts predate the September 2026 additions; Claude Opus 5, called through the Claude Code CLI, judged the 116 cases the September 5 additions joined that no later judge re-judged; and Claude Opus 5.5 judged the cases the September 22, September 29 and September 30 additions joined or a reference revision changed (260 of 674 cases), its own row’s cases included. Each verdict is recorded in a per-case provenance sidecar in the audit tree. Judge verdicts classify misses after scoring and change no score, and every reference flag a judge raised is settled by the developer adjudication above. The unlisted inputs behind the unlisted-input exclusions are the SSI disability criterion (meets_ssi_disability_criteria), false for every person in the certified June 2026 microdata build; months of SSDI receipt (months_receiving_social_security_disability), never carried by the data and integer-typed, which the prompt builder does not expose; weekly hours worked (weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr), which policyengine-us 1.755.4 defaulted to 40 where the prompt treats unlisted numbers as zero; whether survivor benefits other than Social Security are a pension or annuity, which the prompt does not say and which decides both their taxability and whether they count toward Wisconsin’s homestead credit income; who paid for the coverage behind listed employment disability benefits, which decides whether they are taxable; whether listed home mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies, which decides whether SNAP counts it as a shelter cost; whether an adult tax dependent is the claiming filers’ child, which decides whose income counts in that dependent’s Medicaid household; whether the tax behind a listed state and local tax refund reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it, which decides how much of the refund is income; the state income tax a household withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part and which policyengine-us estimates from federal adjusted gross income; Medicare enrollment and a Part B premium, which policyengine-us assumes for every Medicare-eligible person and counts as a medical expense; whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax; and whether listed interest comes from a Massachusetts bank deposit, which moves only an output already recorded as an engine-defect exclusion. One definition was also open: the output definition of federal income tax before refundable credits does not say whether it includes the net investment income tax, which the reference adds and Form 1040 reports after its line for tax after nonrefundable credits, so the outputs that tax moves are excluded as well. The prompt lists a general is disabled fact and never a program-specific determination (Section 4.2). Every exclusion but the California Medicaid output was derived mechanically rather than from which models missed: each is an output that a sweep of every reference, under an alternative reading or an engine defect’s sandbox fix, moved on policyengine-us 1.755.4 or, for the state and local tax refund reading and the readings of the 2026-10-05 review, on 2.15.17. On 1.755.4, PolicyBench excluded every output an alternative reading of the September 22 audit moved and every output a defect not fixed upstream moved by more than a dollar, which is why the set includes three SNAP outputs that move through the elderly-or-disabled SNAP rules (in two of those households SSI itself stays at zero; in the third an aged member already receives SSI and the disabled member would add a second benefit). On 2.15.17, PolicyBench re-ran four of those sweeps (the IRA deduction limit fix, the net investment income tax definition, and the readings for mortgage residence and 40 unlisted weekly hours) and ran a new one for the state and local tax refund reading. Beyond the one-dollar exact-match tolerance, the new sweep moves three previously scored federal income tax outputs, and PolicyBench excluded them. Set against the same 2.15.17 calculation without its fix or reading, no sweep moves a scored output by more than the tolerance, and three scored outputs move by less. PolicyBench did not re-run the other sweeps on 2.15.17. On 2.15.17, the California Medicaid output stays at 1 under either reading of SSI’s disability criterion, because the engine’s Working Disabled Program test reads the general flag in its place. PolicyBench found that output when it re-reviewed the household’s excluded SNAP output, and excluded it because the program itself requires SSI’s definition of disability.

@@ -854,25 +855,33 @@

Reference-output credibility Reviewed during development; upstream data fixes and prompt clarifications were applied before the frozen snapshot. +US payroll tax (October 2026 review) +No judge flag: a review of the state part of every payroll reference classified each state program by who owes the contribution. Minnesota’s and Colorado’s paid leave laws, Massachusetts’s paid family and medical leave law and New York’s paid family leave and disability law let the employer deduct an employee share of the premium up to a cap but do not require it; the four references from those states, which count the cap, are excluded as unlisted inputs. California’s, Connecticut’s, New Jersey’s and Pennsylvania’s employee contributions are owed by the worker and withheld by the employer, and the review left those references as they were. + + US federal income tax (September 2026 wave) Engine defects confirmed: the traditional IRA deduction ignores the compensation limit and the active-participant phase-out (IRC 219(b), 219(g)); estate income never enters gross income; elective deferrals count as EITC and refundable-CTC earned income. Affected outputs excluded. Capital gain distributions reported without Schedule D never reached AGI, a defect fixed upstream after the freeze; the references it alone moves are regenerated with the fix. The taxability of employment disability benefits and whether the output includes the net investment income tax excluded as unlisted inputs. The educator-expense flag dissolved against the $350 2026 cap. - + US state income tax and credits (September 2026 wave) Engine defects confirmed in New Jersey worker contributions, Wisconsin’s elected retirement exclusion, Wisconsin’s capital gain exclusion (which leaves out capital gain distributions), Idaho’s health-premium subtraction, California itemized-deduction conformity, and Massachusetts dividends taxed without the short-term capital loss offset; affected outputs excluded. The CalEITC’s missing second lookup at adjusted gross income and New York’s renter cap were fixed upstream after the freeze; the affected references are regenerated with the fixes. Wisconsin homestead income turned on the unlisted type of survivor benefits (excluded as an unlisted input). The New Jersey EITC, New York real property tax credit and Idaho child tax credit flags dissolved against the statute (Idaho’s credit expired after 2025). - + US SNAP, SSI and CHIP (September 2026 wave) Whether listed mortgage interest is on the occupied home, unlisted hours worked, survivor-benefit taxability, and whether an adult tax dependent is the filers’ child (three Medicaid outputs) excluded as unlisted inputs. SNAP October-December references regenerated with the FY2026 figures, the last published before the freeze. SNAP references regenerated for every month of 2026 with the engine’s SNAP rounding defects fixed as policyengine-us fixed them after the freeze (cents in the allotment, an unrounded minimum benefit, floored net income, unrounded income standards). One Michigan SNAP reference regenerated with the fix for the SNAP child support option, whose engine values carried the opposite meaning (Michigan deducts child support from net income, and the engine excluded it from gross income; fixed upstream in policyengine-us #9586 on 2026-09-24). The heat-and-eat utility allowance granted without an elderly or disabled member, which P.L. 119-21 ended, excluded as an engine defect. The CHIP flag dissolved: employer coverage bars CHIP. - + US projected 2026 parameters (September 2026 wave) No judge flag: a recomputation with every projected 2026 value held found references resting on price-index projections. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Missouri amounts and Maryland’s withholding allowance had been published before the freeze; California’s indexed amounts, the IRS sales tax tables, Idaho’s threshold and Maryland’s return deduction had not. Scored references regenerated with the published or last-published amounts; Wisconsin’s reach only the corrected values of Wisconsin outputs excluded for engine defects. - + US references on policyengine-us 2.15.17 (September 2026 upgrade) Once PolicyBench had ported the conventions, an investigator traced every output that still moved between policyengine-us 1.755.4 and 2.15.17 to its upstream change and settled it against primary sources and their publication dates. An independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The upgrade changes 4 scored references, for law published before the freeze that 1.755.4 did not encode or misapplied: New Jersey’s 2026-2028 child tax credit schedule (P.L.2026, c.26), Arizona’s 200 percent SNAP categorical eligibility limit from March 2026, child support received counted as income for school meals (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and New York’s Empire State child credit phase-out rounding. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, 3 federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: 2.15.17 counts a listed state and local tax refund as income, which is right only if the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the prior year (26 U.S.C. 111(a)). PolicyBench re-reviewed the 19 excluded outputs that move; all stay excluded. The re-review of a California household’s excluded SNAP output flagged its head’s Medicaid eligibility, which turns on the same unlisted input, SSI’s disability criterion, through the Working Disabled Program; PolicyBench excluded it. + +US federal and Virginia income tax (October 2026 review) +No judge flag: a review of release dashboard-data-20260930 swept every reference on policyengine-us 2.15.17 under readings of two inputs no prompt states. The state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction is policyengine-us’s formula estimate of state income tax withheld on federal adjusted gross income; read as the household paying its 2026 liability during the year, or paying none, three scored federal income tax outputs move, and PolicyBench excluded them; the readings also move two federal outputs already excluded. policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled and counts a modeled Part B premium as a medical expense; without it, one household’s federal and Virginia income tax move, and both are excluded. +

@@ -912,18 +921,18 @@

Reference-output credibility US -7860 -7208 -652 +7527 +6883 +644 0 0 0 Total -7860 -7208 -652 +7527 +6883 +644 0 0 0 @@ -937,7 +946,7 @@

Reference-output credibility

Results

United States leaderboard

-

The US leaderboard for the frozen manuscript snapshot is shown in Table 6. The top three models in that snapshot are GPT-6 Sol (95.0 exact, 95% CI 93.2–96.6; 95.9 within-1%), Claude Opus 5.5 (93.7 exact, 95% CI 91.6–95.6; 94.9 within-1%), and GPT-5.6 Sol (93.6 exact, 95% CI 91.3–95.6; 94.3 within-1%).

+

The US leaderboard for the frozen manuscript snapshot is shown in Table 6. The top three models in that snapshot are GPT-6 Sol (95.8 exact, 95% CI 94.2–97.3; 96.5 within-1%), Claude Opus 5.5 (95.1 exact, 95% CI 93.2–96.7; 96.0 within-1%), and GPT-5.6 Sol (94.4 exact, 95% CI 92.2–96.3; 94.9 within-1%).

@@ -978,52 +987,52 @@

United States leaderboard 0 GPT-6 Sol -95.0 -93.2–96.6 +95.8 +94.2–97.3 1–2 -95.9 -97.1 -98.0 +96.5 +97.3 +98.1 1 Claude Opus 5.5 -93.7 -91.6–95.6 -1–4 -94.9 -96.9 -97.6 +95.1 +93.2–96.7 +1–3 +96.0 +97.1 +97.7 2 GPT-5.6 Sol -93.6 -91.3–95.6 +94.4 +92.2–96.3 1–6 -94.3 -95.9 -96.9 +94.9 +96.3 +97.0 3 -GPT-6 Luna -92.1 -89.8–94.3 -3–9 -93.8 -96.7 -97.4 +Claude Sonnet 5.5 +93.3 +91.0–95.3 +3–7 +94.1 +96.3 +97.1 4 -Claude Sonnet 5.5 -92.1 -89.6–94.3 -3–8 -93.1 -96.1 -97.0 +GPT-6 Luna +93.0 +90.9–94.9 +3–9 +94.5 +97.1 +97.5 @@ -1036,9 +1045,9 @@

United States leaderboard

Uncertainty

Each leaderboard score is a mean over a sample of 100 households, so the rankings carry sampling uncertainty. We quantify it with a household-level bootstrap: the 100 households are resampled with replacement 10,000 times, and each model’s population-weighted exact-match rate is recomputed on every resample. The resampling unit is the household, carried with its full output vector, so within-household correlations across outputs are preserved. The same resampled set is used for every model in each replicate (a paired bootstrap), so the rank ranges in Table 6 reflect genuine ordering uncertainty rather than independent per-model noise.

-

Sampling uncertainty is substantial at this sample size. In the frozen snapshot, 8 of the other 45 models have an exact-match 95% interval that overlaps the leader’s. Small differences in the leaderboard ordering should therefore be read as ties rather than as a strict ranking, and the rank-range column makes the set of plausible positions explicit. These intervals are a manuscript artifact: the public leaderboard and app report point estimates only, because the benchmark sample, not run-to-run model variation, is the dominant source of uncertainty here.

+

Sampling uncertainty is substantial at this sample size. In the frozen snapshot, 7 of the other 45 models have an exact-match 95% interval that overlaps the leader’s. Small differences in the leaderboard ordering should therefore be read as ties rather than as a strict ranking, and the rank-range column makes the set of plausible positions explicit. These intervals are a manuscript artifact: the public leaderboard and app report point estimates only, because the benchmark sample, not run-to-run model variation, is the dominant source of uncertainty here.

Cost and latency

-

Accuracy is one axis; the price and speed of a no-tools answer are another. Table 7 reports each model’s estimated cost to compute one household’s full output vector and its median per-household latency, next to the headline exact rate. Per-household cost spans $0.002 (GPT-5.4 nano) to $0.541 (Claude Fable 5), and median per-household latency 3 s (Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite) to 1023 s (Kimi K3). Neither dimension cleanly tracks accuracy: the top-scoring model, GPT-6 Sol at 95.0% exact, sits mid-pack at $0.027 per household and 23 s.

+

Accuracy is one axis; the price and speed of a no-tools answer are another. Table 7 reports each model’s estimated cost to compute one household’s full output vector and its median per-household latency, next to the headline exact rate. Per-household cost spans $0.002 (GPT-5.4 nano) to $0.541 (Claude Fable 5), and median per-household latency 3 s (Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite) to 1023 s (Kimi K3). Neither dimension cleanly tracks accuracy: the top-scoring model, GPT-6 Sol at 95.8% exact, sits mid-pack at $0.027 per household and 23 s.

@@ -1059,277 +1068,277 @@

Cost and latency

GPT-6 Sol -95.0 +95.8 $0.027 23 s Claude Opus 5.5 -93.7 +95.1 $0.067 24 s GPT-5.6 Sol -93.6 +94.4 $0.090 36 s -GPT-6 Luna -92.1 -$0.002 -29 s - - Claude Sonnet 5.5 -92.1 +93.3 $0.034 20 s + +GPT-6 Luna +93.0 +$0.002 +29 s + GPT-6 Astra -91.7 +92.5 $0.126 32 s Claude Fable 5.1 -90.8 +92.1 $0.257 49 s GPT-6.1 Sol -90.6 +91.3 $0.023 34 s Kimi K3 -90.4 +91.2 $0.470 1023 s GPT-5.6 Luna -89.3 +90.3 $0.019 14 s GLM-5.3-Flash (preview) -88.5 +89.8 — 242 s -Grok 4.7 -88.3 -$0.260 -547 s - - Inkling -88.2 +89.3 $0.091 250 s + +Grok 4.7 +89.3 +$0.260 +547 s + GPT-5.5 -88.2 +89.1 $0.262 — GPT-5.6 Terra -87.7 +89.0 $0.039 19 s DeepSeek V4.1 Flash -87.1 +88.0 $0.024 85 s Grok 4.6 -86.4 +87.5 $0.087 219 s Gemini 3.8 Flash -85.9 +87.2 $0.068 56 s Grok 4.5 -85.1 +86.3 $0.073 112 s Claude Opus 5 -84.0 +85.2 $0.067 16 s Claude Fable 5 -83.6 +84.9 $0.541 98 s DeepSeek V4 Pro 0813 -83.4 +84.6 $0.199 808 s DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 -83.3 +84.5 $0.003 195 s Gemini 3.7 Flash -83.1 +84.2 $0.014 9 s Gemini 3.6 Flash -83.1 +84.2 $0.055 26 s Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite -82.0 +83.2 $0.003 3 s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview -81.6 +82.8 $0.085 45 s GLM-5.3 -81.1 +82.3 $0.169 134 s -Claude Opus 4.7 -81.0 -$0.293 -53 s - - Gemini 3 Flash Preview -81.0 +82.2 $0.048 58 s + +Claude Opus 4.7 +82.2 +$0.293 +53 s + Grok 4.3 -80.6 +81.9 $0.015 22 s Grok Build 0.1 -80.4 +81.6 $0.045 135 s Claude Sonnet 4.6 -80.3 +81.5 $0.186 114 s Gemini 3.5 Flash -80.0 +81.3 $0.056 24 s -DeepSeek V4 Pro -79.8 -$0.011 -170 s - - Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview -79.7 +80.9 $0.002 3 s + +DeepSeek V4 Pro +80.8 +$0.011 +170 s + Qwen3.7-max -77.4 +78.6 $0.139 — GLM-5.2 -77.0 +78.0 $0.082 — Claude Opus 4.8 -76.2 +77.4 $0.255 55 s MiniMax M3 -75.7 +76.9 $0.007 — Qwen3.8-Max -75.2 +76.4 $0.224 861 s Claude Haiku 4.5 -74.7 +75.9 $0.055 48 s GPT-5.4 mini -73.7 +74.7 $0.006 5 s Claude Sonnet 5 -72.6 +73.8 $0.172 64 s Kimi K2.6 -67.4 +68.1 $0.391 — GPT-5.4 nano -65.3 +66.5 $0.002 6 s @@ -1342,7 +1351,7 @@

Cost and latency

Cost preserves each call’s recorded total: a request-time reconstruction from token counts where one was available, and the provider-reported charge otherwise. Configured list-price overrides do not reprice recorded calls. Rows without per-call costs use the frozen release-metadata cost. Latency is wall-clock request time as observed by the harness, summed within each household and taken as the median across the 100 households. The per-call timer spans any provider-side retry or rate-limit backoff, so the median is reported in preference to the mean, which a few throttled calls inflate. Latency is not comparable across serving regimes: Claude-family models issue chunked serial calls that lengthen wall-clock time, several models ran through batch or asynchronous dispatch whose logged times reflect submission rather than generation (shown as a dash), and Claude Fable 5’s usage and latency are recorded at the run level rather than per call. Both cost and latency are properties of this run’s providers, prompts, and serving configurations at evaluation time rather than fixed model constants.

Simple baselines

-

Simple baselines help interpret score levels in a zero-heavy benchmark. Table 8 reports an always-zero response and a median-reference-by-output response on the same frozen household sample, scored with the household-impact weighting. These are not model competitors; they show how much of each metric can be earned without household-specific policy calculation. The always-zero baseline scores 70.0% on the headline exact-match rate — below the 86% of outputs that are exact zeros because the weighting concentrates mass in high-dollar output groups that are rarely zero (Section 3.1). The top model clears the baseline by 25.0 points, and the within-1% companion shows the same separation with near-miss tolerance.

+

Simple baselines help interpret score levels in a zero-heavy benchmark. Table 8 reports an always-zero response and a median-reference-by-output response on the same frozen household sample, scored with the household-impact weighting. These are not model competitors; they show how much of each metric can be earned without household-specific policy calculation. The always-zero baseline scores 71.1% on the headline exact-match rate — below the 86% of outputs that are exact zeros because the weighting concentrates mass in high-dollar output groups that are rarely zero (Section 3.1). The top model clears the baseline by 24.7 points, and the within-1% companion shows the same separation with near-miss tolerance.

@@ -1380,16 +1389,16 @@

Simple baselines

0 Always zero -70.0 -70.0 -70.0 +71.1 +71.1 +71.1 1 Median reference by output -63.9 -63.9 -67.1 +65.1 +65.1 +67.5 @@ -1439,43 +1448,43 @@

Sensitivity to benchmark view

0 Exact-match headline -GPT-6 Sol (95.0) -Claude Opus 5.5 (93.7) -GPT-5.6 Sol (93.6) +GPT-6 Sol (95.8) +Claude Opus 5.5 (95.1) +GPT-5.6 Sol (94.4) 1 Within-1% companion -GPT-6 Sol (95.9) -Claude Opus 5.5 (94.9) -GPT-5.6 Sol (94.3) +GPT-6 Sol (96.5) +Claude Opus 5.5 (96.0) +GPT-5.6 Sol (94.9) 2 Bounded score -GPT-6 Sol (98.0) -Claude Opus 5.5 (97.6) -GPT-6 Luna (97.4) +GPT-6 Sol (98.1) +Claude Opus 5.5 (97.7) +GPT-6 Luna (97.5) 3 Equal-output-group score -Claude Opus 5.5 (98.1) -GPT-6 Sol (98.1) +Claude Opus 5.5 (98.2) +GPT-6 Sol (98.2) GPT-6 Astra (98.1) 4 Amount outputs only Claude Opus 5.5 (97.6) -GPT-6 Astra (97.5) -GPT-6.1 Sol (97.3) +GPT-6 Astra (97.6) +GPT-6.1 Sol (97.4) 5 Positive reference cases only -GPT-6 Astra (95.0) -GPT-6.1 Sol (92.4) +GPT-6 Astra (94.9) +GPT-6.1 Sol (92.3) Claude Opus 5.5 (91.6) @@ -1532,23 +1541,23 @@

Sensitivity to benchmark view

0 Household-weighted (default) -GPT-6 Sol (98.0) -Claude Opus 5.5 (97.6) -GPT-6 Luna (97.4) +GPT-6 Sol (98.1) +Claude Opus 5.5 (97.7) +GPT-6 Luna (97.5) 1 Equal weights -Claude Opus 5.5 (98.2) +Claude Opus 5.5 (98.3) GPT-6 Sol (98.1) GPT-6 Astra (97.9) 2 Budget-weighted -GPT-6 Sol (97.6) -GPT-6 Luna (96.6) -Claude Opus 5.5 (96.5) +GPT-6 Sol (97.7) +Claude Opus 5.5 (96.7) +GPT-6 Luna (96.7) @@ -1599,18 +1608,18 @@

Hardest benchmark targets 0 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits -82.7 -61.6 -63.6 -71.8 +82.9 +64.0 +65.7 +73.1 15 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits -84.2 -64.3 -66.7 -76.1 +84.4 +65.1 +67.4 +76.5 16 @@ -1684,15 +1693,15 @@

Zero and positive cases

0 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits -72.7 -43.1 +74.0 +43.6 93.4 1 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits -76.9 -48.5 +77.3 +48.7 91.8 @@ -1720,7 +1729,7 @@

Zero and positive cases

5 payroll_tax 92.1 -88.4 +88.2 98.5 @@ -1757,7 +1766,7 @@

Zero and positive cases

Open-weight time lag

-

The leaderboard also measures time. Following the lag construction the UK AI Security Institute applied to cyber capabilities (UK AI Security Institute 2026), the open-weight lag is the time between the closed frontier first reaching a score and the leading open-weight model matching it. Two cuts of the frozen roster give the trajectory. Among models released before July 2026, the leading open-weight model is DeepSeek V4 Pro at 79.8% exact, whose weights shipped on April 24, 2026 (DeepSeek 2026); the earliest-released closed model above that score is Gemini 3 Flash Preview, released December 17, 2025 (TechCrunch 2025) — a lag of 128 days, about 4.2 months. On the full roster, Kimi K3 at 90.4% exact trails 8 closed models; the earliest released of them, GPT-5.6 Sol, generally available July 9, 2026 (TechCrunch 2026), puts the lag at 7 days by API availability, or 18 days dated to Kimi K3’s July 27 weight release on Hugging Face (Tech Times 2026).

+

The leaderboard also measures time. Following the lag construction the UK AI Security Institute applied to cyber capabilities (UK AI Security Institute 2026), the open-weight lag is the time between the closed frontier first reaching a score and the leading open-weight model matching it. Two cuts of the frozen roster give the trajectory. Among models released before July 2026, the leading open-weight model is DeepSeek V4 Pro at 80.8% exact, whose weights shipped on April 24, 2026 (DeepSeek 2026); the earliest-released closed model above that score is Gemini 3 Flash Preview, released December 17, 2025 (TechCrunch 2025) — a lag of 128 days, about 4.2 months. On the full roster, Kimi K3 at 91.2% exact trails 8 closed models; the earliest released of them, GPT-5.6 Sol, generally available July 9, 2026 (TechCrunch 2026), puts the lag at 7 days by API availability, or 18 days dated to Kimi K3’s July 27 weight release on Hugging Face (Tech Times 2026).

Both figures are lower bounds in one direction: a closed model outside the evaluated roster that crossed either score earlier would lengthen the corresponding lag. They also carry the uncertainty of any single-benchmark, single-domain estimate — the AISI analysis reports substantially longer lags on cyber tasks — and a lag measured at a moving frontier compresses mechanically when a strong open-weight release lands days after a frontier release.

Failure modes

The benchmark surfaces a few recurring failure patterns.

@@ -2128,7 +2137,7 @@

Failure modes

-

Third, structured-output reliability is part of the benchmark contract. Missing or unparseable numeric values are not dropped. Appendix A documents parser recovery and the supervised runner’s bounded retry rounds. The 652 cells (0.7%) that still returned no parsable value after retries remain in the canonical files and score zero as parse-contract failures. Appendix A gives the per-model breakdown.

+

Third, structured-output reliability is part of the benchmark contract. Missing or unparseable numeric values are not dropped. Appendix A documents parser recovery and the supervised runner’s bounded retry rounds. The 644 cells (0.7%) that still returned no parsable value after retries remain in the canonical files and score zero as parse-contract failures. Appendix A gives the per-model breakdown.

Limitations

PolicyBench is not a substitute for a production tax-and-benefit calculator. Several caveats matter:

    @@ -2138,9 +2147,10 @@

    Limitations

  • the choice of headline metric (exact match), near-miss companion (within-1%), and secondary tracking metric (bounded score) is one benchmark view; all three are reported, but downstream evaluations should also consider error-magnitude metrics (mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error) where appropriate
  • the public scenario explorer exposes the current test set and reference outputs, so open-set leakage is a prominent limitation rather than a minor implementation detail
  • the 100-household manuscript snapshot should be treated as a preview until larger frozen runs are published
    • -
  • the annotations cover the 7,860-row legacy-threshold audit universe, including 7,856 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits, but not 2,107 additional rows with bounded score below 100; the review is developer-adjudicated and not an independent validation of each reference value
    • +
  • the annotations cover the 7,527-row legacy-threshold audit universe, including 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits, but not 2,072 additional rows with bounded score below 100; the review is developer-adjudicated and not an independent validation of each reference value
  • one frozen scenario encodes household inputs that do not match its prompt narrative (a South Carolina household whose prompt implies a qualifying disability the inputs omit), and two input-semantics conventions (disability, which the prompt states as one general fact where each program applies its own determination, and adult tax-dependent relationships) are under-specified in ways a scheduled scenario refresh will address (Section 4.2); outputs whose reference moves under the other reading of either convention are excluded, while the mis-encoded scenario’s cells score models against its encoded inputs
  • the reference engine carries known defects: 28 outputs, recorded as engine-defect exclusions, rest on 11 root causes that the audit found in policyengine-us 1.755.4 and that 2.15.17 does not fix, and are excluded until a reference version built on a fixed engine restores them; the judge that finds defects reviews only the cases a new model joins, the engine-upgrade review covered only the outputs the upgrade moved, and on 2.15.17 PolicyBench re-ran four of the September 22 alternative-reading and defect sweeps rather than all of them, so defects that no reviewed case, move or re-run sweep exposes can remain
    • +
  • the 2026-10-05 review of release dashboard-data-20260930 found eight scored references that rested on inputs the prompt never states and that no judge had flagged, so other such references can remain scored: the exclusions cover the inputs the audits found
  • the references were frozen on 2026-07-03 for tax year 2026, so amounts published later reach the benchmark only through a stated convention: where policyengine-us projected a 2026 amount, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, failing that, the last one published (SNAP’s FY2026 figures rather than USDA’s FY2027 figures of 2026-08-21; California’s 2025 indexed amounts; the IRS’s 2025 sales tax tables), so a model that knew later law is scored against the earlier law, and the projection audit sourced only the amounts whose projection moved an output; law published before the freeze reaches a reference only once policyengine-us encodes it, and policyengine-us encoded New Jersey’s 2026 child tax credit schedule and Arizona’s SNAP categorical eligibility limit only after 1.755.4
  • benchmark success should not be interpreted as policy-advice readiness
@@ -2185,7 +2195,7 @@

Appendix Final parse coverage -652 of the 88,688 canonical model-output rows (0.7%) have no parsable numeric value after retries. The failures comprise Kimi K2.6 (390), GLM-5.2 (133), GLM-5.3 (71), and Kimi K3 (58). They score zero as parse-contract failures. A further 60 rows (Grok 4.3 (55), Kimi K2.6 (4), and Claude Haiku 4.5 (1)) carry a parsed numeric value but no explanation; they are scored on the numeric value and counted here as explanation-contract violations, so 712 rows in all fall short of the numeric-plus-explanation contract. Every other row has both. +644 of the 88,320 canonical model-output rows (0.7%) have no parsable numeric value after retries. The failures comprise Kimi K2.6 (383), GLM-5.2 (132), GLM-5.3 (71), and Kimi K3 (58). They score zero as parse-contract failures. A further 60 rows (Grok 4.3 (55), Kimi K2.6 (4), and Claude Haiku 4.5 (1)) carry a parsed numeric value but no explanation; they are scored on the numeric value and counted here as explanation-contract violations, so 704 rows in all fall short of the numeric-plus-explanation contract. Every other row has both. Preservation rule @@ -2198,7 +2208,7 @@

Appendix

-

Model waves after June ran under a resumable supervised runner that retries failed or timed-out scenarios in bounded rounds. No separate retry artifacts exist; repairs are folded into each model’s canonical prediction file. After retries, 652 cells (0.7% of canonical rows) still returned no parsable numeric value. They comprise Kimi K2.6 (390), GLM-5.2 (133), GLM-5.3 (71), and Kimi K3 (58). These cells remain in the canonical files, with their raw responses preserved wherever the transport exposed one (no raw payload is retained for Claude Fable 5 (1,984 rows), GLM-5.3 (78 rows), and Kimi K3 (64 rows)). They score zero as parse-contract failures, and the denominator is never reduced.

+

Model waves after June ran under a resumable supervised runner that retries failed or timed-out scenarios in bounded rounds. No separate retry artifacts exist; repairs are folded into each model’s canonical prediction file. After retries, 644 cells (0.7% of canonical rows) still returned no parsable numeric value. They comprise Kimi K2.6 (383), GLM-5.2 (132), GLM-5.3 (71), and Kimi K3 (58). These cells remain in the canonical files, with their raw responses preserved wherever the transport exposed one (no raw payload is retained for Claude Fable 5 (1,984 rows), GLM-5.3 (78 rows), and Kimi K3 (64 rows)). They score zero as parse-contract failures, and the denominator is never reduced.

Competing interests

The author leads PolicyEngine, which develops the microsimulation software used to produce the benchmark reference outputs, and is a founder of the Axiom Foundation, a nonprofit developing deterministic rules-as-code infrastructure. Both organizations’ missions are advanced by the finding that unaided language models do not reliably reproduce rule calculations.

diff --git a/app/src/data.artifact.json b/app/src/data.artifact.json index 618a1eea..640d7cc2 100644 --- a/app/src/data.artifact.json +++ b/app/src/data.artifact.json @@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ { "asset": "dashboard-data.json", - "bytes": 126109700, + "bytes": 127225036, "repo": "PolicyEngine/policybench", - "sha256": "d1cae7456cf91ab6fa04644a4d5d570e359522386a7c52f9645d5923bfc11258", - "tag": "dashboard-data-20260930", - "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20260930/dashboard-data.json", + "sha256": "aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462", + "tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20261006/dashboard-data.json", "version": 1 } diff --git a/app/src/data.versions.json b/app/src/data.versions.json index 0eedb003..95084590 100644 --- a/app/src/data.versions.json +++ b/app/src/data.versions.json @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ "artifact": { "pointer": "live" }, - "description": "Scored reference outputs from policyengine-us 2.15.17 (the 56 excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: 52 from policyengine-us 1.755.4, 4 from 2.15.17, and the 19 that move on 2.15.17 were re-reviewed and stay excluded); same household facts and requested outputs for every model; answer transport and request shape per model as recorded in the serving-configuration table - 46 models", + "description": "Scored reference outputs from policyengine-us 2.15.17 (the 64 excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: 52 from policyengine-us 1.755.4, 12 from 2.15.17, and the 19 that move on 2.15.17 were re-reviewed and stay excluded); same household facts and requested outputs for every model; answer transport and request shape per model as recorded in the serving-configuration table - 46 models", "id": "1.1", "label": "1.1", "snapshotLabel": "Snapshot 2026-09-30" diff --git a/app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts b/app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts index ec41b205..72c09299 100644 --- a/app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts +++ b/app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ const FORCED_TOOL = export const SERVING_SENSITIVITY: Record = { "claude-fable-5": { - autoExact: 91.521, + autoExact: 92.817, boardTreatment: `${FORCED_TOOL}, one output per request`, autoTreatment: "re-run with tool_choice: auto and the whole household in one request", @@ -43,14 +43,14 @@ export const SERVING_SENSITIVITY: Record = { noteHref: SENSITIVITY_DOC_HREF, }, "claude-opus-5": { - autoExact: 90.013, + autoExact: 91.252, boardTreatment: FORCED_TOOL, autoTreatment: "re-run with tool_choice: auto", thinkingSuppressedOnBoard: true, noteHref: SENSITIVITY_DOC_HREF, }, "claude-sonnet-5": { - autoExact: 84.803, + autoExact: 86.076, boardTreatment: `${FORCED_TOOL}, one output per request`, autoTreatment: "re-run with tool_choice: auto and the whole household in one request", @@ -58,7 +58,7 @@ export const SERVING_SENSITIVITY: Record = { noteHref: SENSITIVITY_DOC_HREF, }, "claude-fable-5.1": { - autoExact: 91.728, + autoExact: 93.037, boardTreatment: "rejects forced tool calls, so its row answers as a JSON object and reasons at the provider default", autoTreatment: diff --git a/app/src/notes/2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce.json b/app/src/notes/2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce.json index f8e5d0cd..f8f06425 100644 --- a/app/src/notes/2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce.json +++ b/app/src/notes/2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce.json @@ -14,7 +14,8 @@ "GPT-6 Astra gets {astraHits:words} of the {householdCount:words} households right, more than any other model, and cites the state's BBCE limit of {bbceGrossLimitHigh}% of the guideline each time. It answers $0 for the Texas resident, the one household that fails SNAP's ordinary gross income test, and for the Arizona resident. GPT-6.1 Sol gets {sol61Hits:words} right, the Michigan and Wisconsin households, citing each state's categorical eligibility limit. Claude Opus 5.5 answers ${opusOn108} for the Wisconsin surviving spouse, citing Wisconsin's BBCE and its {bbceGrossLimitHigh}% limit. For the Connecticut couple, the disabled Michigan resident, and the Arizona resident, it answers $0, citing SNAP's ordinary net income test, which BBCE removes in all three states. GPT-6 Sol, which leads PolicyBench overall, answers $0 for {sol6ZeroCount:words} of the {householdCount:words} and mentions BBCE in {sol6BbceMentions:words} of its SNAP explanations for PolicyBench's {boardHouseholds} households.", "GPT-6 Sol, Claude Opus 5.5, and Claude Sonnet 5.5 miss the Texas resident's amount because they count less income than PolicyEngine does. GPT-6 Sol answers ${sol6On030}, and Claude Opus 5.5 and Claude Sonnet 5.5 each answer ${opusOn030}. All three compute an ordinary benefit from wages alone. PolicyEngine also counts the ${financialAssistance} of financial assistance as income, which puts the household above SNAP's ordinary limits and leaves BBCE as its only route. The prompt labels that money only \"financial assistance\", without naming its source, and SNAP counts some kinds of assistance as income but excludes others, such as educational assistance.", "All {nModels} models answer $0 for the Arizona resident, whose gross income falls between Arizona's old and new BBCE limits. PolicyBench's references use policyengine-us {engineVersion}, which encodes the raise. GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol, Gemini 3.5 Flash, and Gemini 3.8 Flash write that the resident's income exceeds Arizona's categorical eligibility limit; Gemini 3.5 Flash and Gemini 3.8 Flash, along with Gemini 3 Flash Preview, give Arizona's limit as {azLimitBefore}%, the limit before March.", - "This note corrects PolicyBench's September 3 note. That note counted {sept3HouseholdCount:words} households, {fullYearCount:words} of them among the {householdCount:words} here, at ${sept3Reference} each, an amount PolicyBench computed from PolicyEngine's unrounded minimum. SNAP rounds the minimum to the nearest dollar, and so does PolicyEngine (policyengine-us #9162). One of the {sept3HouseholdCount:words}, a Michigan worker who pays child support, does not qualify. Michigan counts that child support in gross income and deducts it when computing net income, which puts the worker's gross income above Michigan's {bbceGrossLimitHigh}% BBCE limit; PolicyEngine subtracted it from gross income until policyengine-us #9586. The version of this note published September 23 counted the worker among its households. PolicyBench no longer scores another of the {sept3HouseholdCount:words}, a second Texas household, whose reference assumed {assumedHours} hours of work a week that the prompt does not list. At 0 hours, as the prompt's rule for unlisted numbers reads, PolicyEngine gives that household $0, the answer GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Fable 5.1, and Kimi K3 gave in the September 3 note. The September 3 note also says SNAP excludes that household's farm rent, but SNAP counts rent, farm rent included, net of the costs of doing business: as unearned income under 7 CFR 273.9(b)(2)(ii), or as earned income under 273.9(b)(1)(ii) when a household member averages at least 20 hours a week managing the property. PolicyEngine counts farm rent from policyengine-us #9671, which postdates the references' engine, {engineVersion}. The September 3 note described BBCE as covering households that receive the non-cash benefit, but PolicyEngine computed that note's amounts by applying BBCE to every household eligible for that benefit. It also said Connecticut, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin waive the asset test, but Texas keeps a ${bbceAssetLimitTx} asset limit." + "This note corrects PolicyBench's September 3 note. That note counted {sept3HouseholdCount:words} households, {fullYearCount:words} of them among the {householdCount:words} here, at ${sept3Reference} each, an amount PolicyBench computed from PolicyEngine's unrounded minimum. SNAP rounds the minimum to the nearest dollar, and so does PolicyEngine (policyengine-us #9162). One of the {sept3HouseholdCount:words}, a Michigan worker who pays child support, does not qualify. Michigan counts that child support in gross income and deducts it when computing net income, which puts the worker's gross income above Michigan's {bbceGrossLimitHigh}% BBCE limit; PolicyEngine subtracted it from gross income until policyengine-us #9586. The version of this note published September 23 counted the worker among its households. PolicyBench no longer scores another of the {sept3HouseholdCount:words}, a second Texas household, whose reference assumed {assumedHours} hours of work a week that the prompt does not list. At 0 hours, as the prompt's rule for unlisted numbers reads, PolicyEngine gives that household $0, the answer GPT-5.6 Sol, Claude Fable 5.1, and Kimi K3 gave in the September 3 note. The September 3 note also says SNAP excludes that household's farm rent, but SNAP counts rent, farm rent included, net of the costs of doing business: as unearned income under 7 CFR 273.9(b)(2)(ii), or as earned income under 273.9(b)(1)(ii) when a household member averages at least 20 hours a week managing the property. PolicyEngine counts farm rent from policyengine-us #9671, which postdates the references' engine, {engineVersion}. The September 3 note described BBCE as covering households that receive the non-cash benefit, but PolicyEngine computed that note's amounts by applying BBCE to every household eligible for that benefit. It also said Connecticut, Michigan, Texas, and Wisconsin waive the asset test, but Texas keeps a ${bbceAssetLimitTx} asset limit.", + "A later release, dashboard-data-20261006, stops scoring {laterExclusions:words} tax outputs and changes no SNAP reference or answer. On it, GPT-6 Luna is #{laterLunaRank} on PolicyBench, below Claude Sonnet 5.5, and every other figure in this note stays the same." ], "facts": { "householdCount": 5, @@ -72,7 +73,9 @@ "sept3HouseholdCount": 6, "sept3Reference": "287.68", "assumedHours": 40, - "bbceAssetLimitTx": 5000 + "bbceAssetLimitTx": 5000, + "laterExclusions": 8, + "laterLunaRank": 5 }, "mentionRegexes": { "bbce": "broad-based|\\bbbce\\b|categorical(?:ly)?[- ]eligib|expanded categorical", @@ -117,6 +120,10 @@ "label": "Dashboard data release", "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20260930" }, + { + "label": "Later release dashboard-data-20261006", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20261006" + }, { "label": "Six SNAP households note (September 3)", "href": "/notes/2026-09-03-six-snap-households" @@ -129,6 +136,10 @@ "label": "Release note for dashboard-data-20260929 (September 29)", "href": "/notes/2026-09-29-claude-sonnet-5-5-debuts-fifth" }, + { + "label": "Release note for dashboard-data-20261006 (October 6)", + "href": "/notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs" + }, { "label": "Reference upgrade record", "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/reference_audit/2026-09-28/README.md" diff --git a/app/src/notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs.json b/app/src/notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c2e85c32 --- /dev/null +++ b/app/src/notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs.json @@ -0,0 +1,160 @@ +{ + "slug": "2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs", + "date": "2026-10-06", + "title": "PolicyBench stops scoring eight tax outputs whose references turn on facts the prompts never state", + "paragraphs": [ + "PolicyBench stops scoring {newExclusions:words} tax outputs, in {newHouseholds:words} households, whose references turn on facts the prompts never state. The {newExclusions:words} are federal income tax for households in California, Massachusetts, and Virginia; the Virginia household's state income tax; and payroll tax for the Massachusetts household and households in Minnesota, Colorado, and New York. Every model is now scored on {scoredOutputs} of its {totalOutputs} requested outputs, down from {previousScoredOutputs}, and PolicyBench excludes {excluded}.", + "The {federalOutputs:words} federal outputs depend on the state income tax each household paid during 2026, which the federal deduction for state and local taxes counts and no prompt lists. policyengine-us {engineVersion}, which built the references, fills that amount with its own estimate of state income tax withheld, a formula on federal adjusted gross income. If each household paid its 2026 state income tax as the engine computes it, the outputs are ${fed022Alt} in California, ${fed081Alt} in Massachusetts, and ${fed114Alt} in Virginia, against references of ${fed022Ref}, ${fed081Ref}, and ${fed114Ref}.", + "The Virginia household's head is {va114Age}, and the prompt lists no Medicare enrollment or premium. policyengine-us treats everyone eligible for Medicare as enrolled and counts the standard Part B premium, ${partBPremium} for 2026, as a medical expense. The household itemizes, and Virginia's itemized deductions start from the federal ones, so the premium lowers its Virginia income tax: without it, that output is ${va114Alt} rather than the reference's ${va114Ref}. The premium lowers the household's federal income tax too, and that output's exclusion record names both unstated facts.", + "The {payrollOutputs:words} payroll outputs count an employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium: {optionalPrograms}. In each of these states the premium is the employer's, and the employer may deduct up to a set share of it from wages but need not, so the law requires no amount of the employee. The prompts ask for mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and the references count the largest share each state's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, without the prompts saying whether it does. Without that share, the outputs are ${mnAlt} in Minnesota, ${coAlt} in Colorado, ${maAlt} in Massachusetts, and ${nyAlt} in New York, against references of ${mnRef}, ${coRef}, ${maRef}, and ${nyRef}. PolicyBench still scores the payroll outputs of {mandatoryScored:words} households in {mandatoryStates}, where the law puts the contribution on the worker and requires the employer to withhold it.", + "No model's answer is within $1 of the reference on any of the {incomeTaxOutputs:words} income tax outputs. On the {payrollOutputs:words} payroll outputs, {payrollHits} answers match the reference within $1: {mnHits:words} for Minnesota, {coHits} for Colorado, {maHits:words} for Massachusetts, and {nyHits:words} for New York. Another {payrollAltHits} match the amount without the state share.", + "Every model's exact rate, its share of answers within $1 weighted by household impact, rises by {riseMin} to {riseMax} points. GPT-6 Sol still leads at {solExact}%, ahead of Claude Opus 5.5 ({opusExact}%) and GPT-5.6 Sol ({sol56Exact}%). Claude Sonnet 5.5 ({sonnetExact}%) passes GPT-6 Luna ({lunaExact}%) for fourth. Further down, {riserTwo} moves above {riserTwoPassed}, {riserThree} above {riserThreePassed}, and {riserFour} above {riserFourPassed}. Every other pair keeps its order.", + "PolicyBench's next prompt contract remains an unactivated draft (PolicyEngine/policybench#173). It states the state income tax paid for each tax unit or a named convention for estimating withholding; each person's Medicare Part B enrollment and annual net premium; and whether each person's employer withholds the employee share of state paid-leave or disability premiums. Its payroll output definition counts optional employee shares only when the employer withholds them. A later run can score these outputs after its reference builder and a fresh input sweep validate the stated conventions.", + "Two corrections in this release move no score. PolicyBench now reports that it collected model responses from {responseStart} to {responseEnd}, 2026, ending on the UTC date of the last answer; release dashboard-data-20260930 gave {previousResponseEnd}, the date of that release. The audit text for a California household head's Medicaid eligibility now explains the head's income test as the engine applies it: California's ${medicaidDisregard} monthly income disregard, which takes the place of SSI's ${ssiExclusion} general income exclusion, brings countable income under the limit. The earlier text said the engine subtracts a Medicare Part B premium from income, which it does not." + ], + "facts": { + "newExclusions": 8, + "newHouseholds": 6, + "scoredOutputs": 1920, + "totalOutputs": 1984, + "previousScoredOutputs": 1928, + "excluded": 64, + "federalOutputs": 3, + "engineVersion": "2.15.17", + "fed022Alt": "11,895.23", + "fed081Alt": "26,991.31", + "fed114Alt": "11,137.31", + "fed022Ref": "11,113.57", + "fed081Ref": "26,932.27", + "fed114Ref": "10,729.61", + "va114Age": 69, + "partBPremium": "2,434.80", + "va114Alt": "3,654.15", + "va114Ref": "3,514.15", + "payrollOutputs": 4, + "optionalPrograms": "Minnesota Paid Leave, Colorado FAMLI, Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave, and New York Paid Family Leave and Disability Benefits", + "mnAlt": "2,218.50", + "coAlt": "312.74", + "maAlt": "13,387.65", + "nyAlt": "7,664.92", + "mnRef": "2,346.10", + "coRef": "330.73", + "maRef": "14,192.66", + "nyRef": "8,108.03", + "mandatoryScored": 7, + "mandatoryStates": "California, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania", + "incomeTaxOutputs": 4, + "payrollHits": 35, + "mnHits": 6, + "coHits": 16, + "maHits": 9, + "nyHits": 4, + "payrollAltHits": 82, + "riseMin": 0.67, + "riseMax": 1.35, + "solExact": 95.8, + "opusExact": 95.1, + "sol56Exact": 94.4, + "sonnetExact": 93.3, + "lunaExact": 93.0, + "riserTwo": "Inkling", + "riserTwoPassed": "Grok 4.7", + "riserThree": "Gemini 3 Flash Preview", + "riserThreePassed": "Claude Opus 4.7", + "riserFour": "Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview", + "riserFourPassed": "DeepSeek V4 Pro", + "responseStart": "June 12", + "responseEnd": "September 29", + "previousResponseEnd": "September 30", + "medicaidDisregard": 230, + "ssiExclusion": 20 + }, + "data": [ + { + "label": "Dashboard data release", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20261006" + }, + { + "label": "Previous release dashboard-data-20260930", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20260930" + }, + { + "label": "Exclusion record", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json" + }, + { + "label": "Developer adjudications", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json" + }, + { + "label": "Audit of the state income tax in the federal deduction", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md" + }, + { + "label": "Audit of the Medicare Part B premium", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md" + }, + { + "label": "Audit of the state payroll contributions", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md" + }, + { + "label": "Correction of the Medicaid audit text", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/README.md" + }, + { + "label": "Draft prompt contract (policybench#173)", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/pull/173" + }, + { + "label": "Draft v2 contract conventions (reviewed source)", + "href": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/41061fcaa1727a284e279fb763728dc3b36b8cbf/docs/prompt_contract_v2.md#october-5-calculation-conventions" + }, + { + "label": "California household (federal income tax)", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_022#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "Massachusetts household", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_081#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "Virginia household", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_114#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "Minnesota household", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_032#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "Colorado household", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_043#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "New York household", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_082#scenarios" + }, + { + "label": "California household head (Medicaid eligibility)", + "href": "/?country=us&scenario=scenario_031#scenarios" + } + ], + "v2ContractEvidence": { + "pullRequest": 173, + "commit": "41061fcaa1727a284e279fb763728dc3b36b8cbf", + "path": "docs/prompt_contract_v2.md", + "sha256": "c532a028b562a7358480ffd872501a70f6d04842df640747983cc667565a8dc6", + "version": "2.1.0", + "excerpts": { + "activation": "`policybench.prompt_contract_v2` adds an **opt-in, unactivated household-fact\ncontract**", + "salt": "For each supplied tax unit, state the annual input\n`state_withheld_income_tax`, or follow the declared model's per-state AGI-based\nwithholding estimate and treat that estimate as paid during the year.", + "medicareEnrollment": "Every person's text states `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`: enrollment includes\nPart B and is assumed if eligible unless a supplied boolean overrides it.", + "medicarePremium": "The annual enrollee payment `medicare_part_b_premium` is\nemployee after-tax spending. When absent, it follows the declared model's\nstandard premium plus IRMAA, net of Medicare Savings Program support, and is\npaid only while enrolled.", + "employerChoice": "For each person in MN Paid Leave, CO FAMLI, MA PFML, NY PFL/DBL, DE Paid Leave,\nME PFML, VT child-care contribution, or WA PFML, the prompt states whether\nthe employer withholds the employee share.", + "payrollScope": "The v2 payroll definition covers all listed people's employee-side payroll\ntax, including dependent wages, mandatory state contributions, and optional\nemployee shares that the employer chooses to withhold under the stated\nconvention.", + "validation": "Before activation, adapt the reference builder to the stated conventions and\nrun the complete sweep" + } + }, + "boardSnapshot": "2026-09-30", + "release": "dashboard-data-20261006" +} diff --git a/app/src/notes/index.ts b/app/src/notes/index.ts index 0c5a3290..ae6805ba 100644 --- a/app/src/notes/index.ts +++ b/app/src/notes/index.ts @@ -1,6 +1,7 @@ import claudeFable51Added from "./2026-09-01-claude-fable-5-1-added.json"; import claudeSonnet55DebutsFifth from "./2026-09-29-claude-sonnet-5-5-debuts-fifth.json"; import fiveSnapHouseholdsBbce from "./2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce.json"; +import stopsScoringEightTaxOutputs from "./2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs.json"; import gpt6SolDebutsFirst from "./2026-09-22-gpt-6-sol-debuts-first.json"; import referenceAudit from "./2026-09-22-reference-audit.json"; import sixSnapHouseholds from "./2026-09-03-six-snap-households.json"; @@ -28,6 +29,7 @@ export type PolicyBenchNote = { }; export const notes = [ + stopsScoringEightTaxOutputs, fiveSnapHouseholdsBbce, claudeSonnet55DebutsFifth, gpt6SolDebutsFirst, diff --git a/app/src/paperSnapshot.json b/app/src/paperSnapshot.json index 4c10c2c4..3f4ba9c1 100644 --- a/app/src/paperSnapshot.json +++ b/app/src/paperSnapshot.json @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ { - "pdfVersion": "87f78f83e929", - "responseWindow": "June 12 and September 30, 2026", + "pdfVersion": "2cffc69cffde", + "responseWindow": "June 12 and September 29, 2026", "snapshotDate": "2026-09-30", - "webVersion": "bad4b3c0eb58" + "webVersion": "c6dfba0c5718" } diff --git a/app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts b/app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts index 3eaa3084..210a1718 100644 --- a/app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts @@ -18,13 +18,16 @@ describe("audit universe", () => { expect(AUDIT_SELECTION_RULE).toBe( "rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1", ); + // Release 20261006: the counts tests/test_disclosures.py recomputes + // from the frozen annotations and payload (release 20260930's less the + // 368 scored rows on the eight outputs it excludes). expect(summarizeAuditUniverse(us)).toEqual({ - annotatedRowCount: 7_860, - legacyThresholdRowCount: 7_860, - exactMissCount: 7_856, - annotatedExactMissCount: 7_856, + annotatedRowCount: 7_527, + legacyThresholdRowCount: 7_527, + exactMissCount: 7_523, + annotatedExactMissCount: 7_523, annotatedExactHitCount: 4, - unannotatedBelowFullBoundedScoreCount: 2_107, + unannotatedBelowFullBoundedScoreCount: 2_072, }); }); }); diff --git a/app/tests/expandPage.test.ts b/app/tests/expandPage.test.ts index b9480736..c34e98d8 100644 --- a/app/tests/expandPage.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/expandPage.test.ts @@ -71,16 +71,17 @@ test("expand page derives its exact-score headline from the live summary", async ).text(); expect(leader.model).toBe("gpt-6-sol"); - expect(leader.exact).toBeCloseTo(95.003, 3); + expect(leader.exact).toBeCloseTo(95.828, 3); expect(pageSource).toContain("const leader = headlineExactLeader(dashboard);"); expect(pageSource).toContain( "const leaderLabel = MODEL_LABELS[leader.model] ?? leader.model;", ); expect(pageSource).toContain("The best model, {leaderLabel}, computes"); expect(pageSource).toContain("{leader.exact.toFixed(1)}% of"); + expect(pageSource).not.toContain("95.8%"); expect(pageSource).not.toContain("95.0%"); expect(expectedCopy).toBe( - "GPT-6 Sol computes 95.0% of requested outputs exactly", + "GPT-6 Sol computes 95.8% of requested outputs exactly", ); }); diff --git a/app/tests/heatmapMetric.test.ts b/app/tests/heatmapMetric.test.ts index 4cd8339d..8c94d2bf 100644 --- a/app/tests/heatmapMetric.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/heatmapMetric.test.ts @@ -36,10 +36,10 @@ describe("program heatmap metric", () => { test("exact and bounded rates differ where partial credit is large", () => { const federal = fable51("federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"); - expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(federal, "exact"))).toBe(79); + expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(federal, "exact"))).toBe(82); expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(federal, "score"))).toBe(94); const stateTax = fable51("state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"); - expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(stateTax, "exact"))).toBe(73); + expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(stateTax, "exact"))).toBe(74); expect(Math.round(heatmapValue(stateTax, "score"))).toBe(94); }); @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ describe("program heatmap metric", () => { const boundedRates = entries.map((e) => Math.round(e.score)).sort((a, b) => a - b); expect(cells).toEqual(exactRates); expect(cells).not.toEqual(boundedRates); - expect(cells).toContain(79); + expect(cells).toContain(82); expect(html).toContain('aria-pressed="true"'); }); diff --git a/app/tests/notes.test.ts b/app/tests/notes.test.ts index 2454d674..aa789bf3 100644 --- a/app/tests/notes.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/notes.test.ts @@ -51,8 +51,13 @@ describe("notes", () => { "Most models answer $0 for households that qualify for SNAP under their states' higher income limits", ); expect(markup).toContain("release dashboard-data-20260922"); - // The BBCE note is on the frozen release. + // The BBCE note keeps release dashboard-data-20260930; the October 6 + // release note is on the frozen release. expect(markup).toContain("release dashboard-data-20260930"); + expect(markup).toContain( + "PolicyBench stops scoring eight tax outputs whose references turn on facts the prompts never state", + ); + expect(markup).toContain("release dashboard-data-20261006"); // Cents stay as written; whole-dollar facts get thousands separators. expect(markup).toContain("GPT-6 Sol answers $1,208.40"); expect(markup).toContain( @@ -72,7 +77,16 @@ describe("notes", () => { expect(markup).not.toMatch(/\{[A-Za-z][A-Za-z0-9]*(?::words)?\}/); }); + test("the newest note is the release note for dashboard-data-20261006", () => { + expect(notes[0].slug).toBe( + "2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs", + ); + expect(notes[0].release).toBe("dashboard-data-20261006"); + expect(notes[0].boardSnapshot).toBe("2026-09-30"); + }); + test("a words placeholder spells out whole numbers under ten", () => { + // Any note serves as the template; its facts and paragraphs are replaced. const note = { ...notes[0], facts: { small: 4, large: 12, zero: 0, cents: "4.50" }, @@ -138,6 +152,76 @@ describe("notes", () => { expect(markup).not.toMatch(/>scenario_\d+<\/a>/); }); + test("the BBCE note closes with the later release", () => { + const note = notes.find( + (entry) => entry.slug === "2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce", + ); + const markup = renderToStaticMarkup( + createElement(NoteArticle, { note: note!, titleLevel: "h1" }), + ); + // Its numbers stay release dashboard-data-20260930's. + expect(markup).toContain("GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-6 Luna, #3 and #4 on PolicyBench"); + expect(markup).toContain( + "A later release, dashboard-data-20261006, stops scoring eight tax outputs and changes no SNAP reference or answer. On it, GPT-6 Luna is #5 on PolicyBench, below Claude Sonnet 5.5, and every other figure in this note stays the same.", + ); + expect(markup).toContain( + 'href="/notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs"', + ); + expect(markup).toContain( + 'href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20261006"', + ); + }); + + test("the October 6 release note renders its figures", () => { + const note = notes.find( + (entry) => + entry.slug === "2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs", + ); + expect(note).toBeDefined(); + expect(note!.date).toBe("2026-10-06"); + const description = interpolateNoteText(note!, note!.paragraphs[0]); + expect(description.length).toBeLessThan(600); + expect(description).toStartWith( + "PolicyBench stops scoring eight tax outputs, in six households, whose references turn on facts the prompts never state.", + ); + expect(description).toEndWith( + "Every model is now scored on 1,920 of its 1,984 requested outputs, down from 1,928, and PolicyBench excludes 64.", + ); + const markup = renderToStaticMarkup( + createElement(NoteArticle, { note: note!, titleLevel: "h1" }), + ); + // Cents stay as written. + expect(markup).toContain( + "the outputs are $11,895.23 in California, $26,991.31 in Massachusetts, and $11,137.31 in Virginia, against references of $11,113.57, $26,932.27, and $10,729.61.", + ); + expect(markup).toContain("the standard Part B premium, $2,434.80 for 2026"); + expect(markup).toContain( + "35 answers match the reference within $1: six for Minnesota, 16 for Colorado, nine for Massachusetts, and four for New York. Another 82 match", + ); + // Rises are not board rates, so they keep their two decimals; board + // rates keep one decimal, a whole one too. + expect(markup).toContain("rises by 0.67 to 1.35 points"); + expect(markup).toContain("GPT-6 Sol still leads at 95.8%, ahead of Claude Opus 5.5 (95.1%)"); + expect(markup).toContain( + "Claude Sonnet 5.5 (93.3%) passes GPT-6 Luna (93.0%) for fourth.", + ); + expect(markup).toContain( + "Inkling moves above Grok 4.7, Gemini 3 Flash Preview above Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview above DeepSeek V4 Pro.", + ); + expect(markup).toContain( + "from June 12 to September 29, 2026, ending on the UTC date of the last answer", + ); + expect(markup).toContain("California's $230 monthly income disregard"); + expect(markup).toContain( + 'href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/pull/173"', + ); + expect(markup).toContain( + 'href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/dashboard-data-20260930"', + ); + expect(markup).toContain(">Virginia household"); + expect(markup).not.toMatch(/>scenario_\d+<\/a>/); + }); + test("the September 3 note links the later correction", () => { const note = notes.find( (entry) => entry.slug === "2026-09-03-six-snap-households", diff --git a/app/tests/programChart.test.ts b/app/tests/programChart.test.ts index 76da16e3..6c3d437e 100644 --- a/app/tests/programChart.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/programChart.test.ts @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ describe("program bars", () => { const federal = bars.find( (b) => b.variable === "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", )!; - expect(federal.exact).toBeCloseTo(79.3, 1); + expect(federal.exact).toBeCloseTo(82.3, 1); expect(federal.weightShare).toBeCloseTo(0.191, 2); const total = bars.reduce((sum, b) => sum + (b.weightShare ?? 0), 0); expect(total).toBeCloseTo(1, 3); @@ -37,10 +37,10 @@ describe("program bars", () => { ); expect(html.match(/
  • 79.3%<"); + expect(html).toContain(">82.3%<"); expect(html).toContain(">19%<"); - expect(html).toContain("79.3% exact"); - expect(html).toContain("width:79.26829268292683%"); + expect(html).toContain("82.3% exact"); + expect(html).toContain("width:82.27848101265823%"); }); test("narrow rows stack the bar under the label; wide rows reserve a bar track", () => { diff --git a/app/tests/servingSensitivity.test.ts b/app/tests/servingSensitivity.test.ts index 31fe8a7f..780d688d 100644 --- a/app/tests/servingSensitivity.test.ts +++ b/app/tests/servingSensitivity.test.ts @@ -59,26 +59,32 @@ describe("serving sensitivity", () => { wouldRank: rank, }), ); - expect(rank).toBe(7); - expect(html).toContain("auto 91.5 · #7"); + expect(rank).toBe(6); + expect(html).toContain("auto 92.8 · #6"); expect(html).toContain("switches Claude's extended thinking off"); - expect(html).toContain("would rank #7"); - expect(html).toContain("(+7.9 against its 83.6% on the unfiltered board)"); + expect(html).toContain("would rank #6"); + expect(html).toContain("(+7.9 against its 84.9% on the unfiltered board)"); expect(html).toContain("sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md"); expect(html).toContain("issues/139"); }); test("Fable 5.1 links its dated note and explains the JSON transport", () => { const sensitivity = servingSensitivityFor("claude-fable-5.1")!; + const board = rows.find((row) => row.model === "claude-fable-5.1")!; + const rank = wouldRank(sensitivity.autoExact, rows); const html = renderToStaticMarkup( createElement(ServingSensitivityChip, { modelLabel: "Claude Fable 5.1", - boardExact: 90.8, + boardExact: board.exact ?? board.score, sensitivity, - wouldRank: wouldRank(sensitivity.autoExact, rows), + wouldRank: rank, }), ); - expect(html).toContain("auto 91.7 · #6"); + // 93.037 ranks above GPT-6 Luna's 93.021 though both display as 93.0: + // the would-rank comes from the unrounded score. + expect(rank).toBe(5); + expect(html).toContain("auto 93.0 · #5"); + expect(html).toContain("(+1.0 against its 92.1% on the unfiltered board)"); expect(html).toContain("rejects forced tool calls"); expect(html).toContain("compares transports"); expect(html).toContain('href="/notes/2026-09-01-claude-fable-5-1-added"'); @@ -112,10 +118,10 @@ describe("serving sensitivity", () => { // 88.183 − 86.945 = 1.238 → +1.2; rounding first would have said +1.3. expect(formatDelta(88.183, 86.945)).toBe("+1.2"); expect(formatDelta(88.2, 86.945)).toBe("+1.3"); - // The pinned Fable 5.1 pair on the frozen board: 91.728 − 90.828 = 0.900. + // The pinned Fable 5.1 pair on the frozen board: 93.037 − 92.070 = 0.967. expect( formatDelta(fable51Summary.sensitivity.exact, fable51Summary.board.exact), - ).toBe("+0.9"); + ).toBe("+1.0"); expect(formatDelta(80.775, 80.8)).toBe("−0.0"); const fable5 = Object.values(augustSummary.runs).find( (run) => run.model === "claude-fable-5", diff --git a/docs/artifacts.md b/docs/artifacts.md index eb13112c..89c84f14 100644 --- a/docs/artifacts.md +++ b/docs/artifacts.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # Dashboard data artifacts -The dashboard payload (`data.json`, ~126MB at 46 models) is a generated +The dashboard payload (`data.json`, ~127MB at 46 models) is a generated artifact, not source. The manuscript snapshot keeps the frozen per-country copy as a deterministic gzip (`paper/snapshot//runs//data.json.gz`, read through `policybench.snapshot_payload`) because the plain export passed diff --git a/docs/benchmark_card.md b/docs/benchmark_card.md index 238fbd34..b682ce8a 100644 --- a/docs/benchmark_card.md +++ b/docs/benchmark_card.md @@ -70,8 +70,8 @@ be described as faithful reasoning traces. PolicyBench computes each scored US reference by running `policyengine_us.Simulation` from policyengine-us 2.15.17, the newest release when PolicyBench began sweeping the references on 2026-09-29 (uploaded 00:23 -UTC). The 56 excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on (52 computed -with policyengine-us 1.755.4, 4 with 2.15.17), and PolicyBench re-reviewed the +UTC). The 64 excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on (52 computed +with policyengine-us 1.755.4, 12 with 2.15.17), and PolicyBench re-reviewed the 19 of them that move on 2.15.17; all 19 stay excluded. The manifest also records policyengine.py 6.1.2 for provenance. Its certified US bundle carries policyengine-us 2.2.1, and policyengine.py does not load beside 2.15.17. @@ -102,11 +102,11 @@ records the investigation and the independent review behind each. ## Audit scope -The frozen US annotations cover 7,860 scored rows selected because their -legacy threshold score is below 1 (2,111 further annotated rows sit on the 56 +The frozen US annotations cover 7,527 scored rows selected because their +legacy threshold score is below 1 (2,444 further annotated rows sit on the 64 excluded outputs and are description, not audit). This audit universe contains -7,856 of the snapshot's 7,856 exact-match misses and four exact hits. Another -2,107 scored rows have a bounded score below 100 but fall outside the +7,523 of the snapshot's 7,523 exact-match misses and four exact hits. Another +2,072 scored rows have a bounded score below 100 but fall outside the legacy-threshold selection and have no audit annotation. Three judge models produced the verdicts, all of them board rows: GPT-5.6 Sol through the Codex CLI for 298 cases, Claude Opus 5 through the Claude Code CLI for the 116 cases @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ reference-suspect flag, is resolved by a recorded developer adjudication (annotations/.../us_adjudications.json), which keeps the judge's verdict (the case's current verdict.json; a flag an earlier judge run raised is kept and says so) beside the decision and the reasoning. This snapshot carries -69: one for each excluded output, one for each flagged reference the +77: one for each excluded output, one for each flagged reference the adjudication affirmed or replaced with a regenerated reference, and two for cases whose misses the judge attributed to the reference applying later law; the adjudication records them as model errors because that law predates the @@ -141,7 +141,7 @@ gain fix as first built also applied Wisconsin's capital gain exclusion to the distributions, which the upstream fix does not; that part is recorded as its own defect, not fixed upstream. -Fifty-six outputs in 39 households are excluded from scoring for every model +Sixty-four outputs in 42 households are excluded from scoring for every model (`reference_exclusions.json` beside the frozen references, pinned by the manifest). The September 22 audit recomputed every reference on policyengine-us 1.755.4 under each defect's sandbox fix and excluded every @@ -153,13 +153,19 @@ without an elderly or disabled member), and an output such a defect moves that was already excluded for an unstated input keeps that record. On policyengine-us 2.15.17 each of these outputs keeps the value its defect produced, or it moved and a re-review found the defect still present. -Twenty-eight depend on an input the prompt never states, such as whether a +Thirty-six depend on an input the prompt never states, such as whether a person meets SSI's definition of disability, months of SSDI receipt, weekly hours worked, the type of survivor benefits, who paid for the coverage behind a -disability benefit, whether an adult tax dependent is the filers' child, or +disability benefit, whether an adult tax dependent is the filers' child, whether a listed state and local tax refund counts as income, which turns on whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it -(26 U.S.C. 111(a)); each was recomputed under the other reading a careful +(26 U.S.C. 111(a)), the state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which +the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part +and policyengine-us estimates from federal adjusted gross income, Medicare +enrollment and a Part B premium, which policyengine-us assumes for every +Medicare-eligible person and counts as a medical expense, or whether the +employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability +premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require; each was recomputed under the other reading a careful reader could take, on the engine version that produced its reference, and it moved. One of them, a California household head's Medicaid eligibility, moved only once the engine read SSI's definition of disability where the law does. @@ -170,9 +176,9 @@ requires SSI's definition of disability (42 CFR 435.540(a)). policyengine-us reading; with the program's test reading SSI's definition of disability, the head qualifies only by meeting it. Exclusion is symmetric: rows that matched the frozen reference leave the score -with rows that did not, so every model is scored on 1,928 of its 1,984 +with rows that did not, so every model is scored on 1,920 of its 1,984 requested outputs. The rows on those outputs stay annotated as description: -each carries its exclusion's class, except the 55 answers that never parsed, +each carries its exclusion's class, except the 63 answers that never parsed, which stay parse_contract_failure; no scored row carries a descriptive class. The prompt states disability as one general fact (any of the six Current Population Survey disability-difficulty items); SSI, @@ -199,6 +205,23 @@ above, which the reading of SSI's definition of disability does not move on disability flag. An output that one of those fixes or readings would move on 2.15.17, but did not move on 1.755.4, could still be scored. +On 2026-10-05 a review of release dashboard-data-20260930 swept every output on +policyengine-us 2.15.17 under readings of three inputs no prompt states: the +state income tax in the federal state and local tax deduction, which +policyengine-us fills with a formula estimate of withholding on federal +adjusted gross income (`reference_audit/2026-10-05/`); Medicare enrollment and +the Part B premium, which policyengine-us assumes for every Medicare-eligible +person (`reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/`); and whether the +employer deducts an employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium +that the law lets it deduct but does not require +(`reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/`). Each sweep's baseline reproduces all +1,928 references that release scored. Beyond the $1 tolerance the sweeps move +eight scored outputs, which PolicyBench excluded: the federal income tax of +three households, one household's Virginia income tax, and the payroll tax of +four households in Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts and New York. They also +move two federal income tax outputs that were already excluded, and no output +that is still scored by any amount. No judge had flagged the eight. + Canonical runs require numeric answers and explanations for each requested output. If future prompt-contract ablations omit explanations, they should be labeled as ablations and not mixed into leaderboard claims. diff --git a/docs/paper.md b/docs/paper.md index ddb58cc6..d66e6ef8 100644 --- a/docs/paper.md +++ b/docs/paper.md @@ -67,14 +67,14 @@ The manifest at `paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json` lists: - `population_weight_artifact`, with the committed scoring-weight path and sha256 - `audit_annotation_artifacts`, with the row and case audit file hashes. The - frozen annotations cover 7,860 scored rows whose legacy threshold score is - below 1: 7,856 of 7,856 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,107 + frozen annotations cover 7,527 scored rows whose legacy threshold score is + below 1: 7,523 of 7,523 exact-match misses and 4 exact hits. Another 2,072 scored rows have bounded score below 100 but were outside that selection and are not annotated. A judge_provenance block tallies which judge model produced each case verdict. - `reference_exclusions`, with the outputs removed from scoring for every model because their reference rests on a reference-engine defect not fixed upstream - or depends on an input the prompt never states (56 in this snapshot; 1,928 of + or depends on an input the prompt never states (64 in this snapshot; 1,920 of 1,984 outputs per model are scored), the file's hash, and the tallies by unlisted input and by engine-defect root cause. - `reproducibility_notes`, covering model-alias instability and what is not diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/annotation_rewrites.json b/docs/release_20261006/annotation_rewrites.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..588b3361 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/annotation_rewrites.json @@ -0,0 +1,3383 @@ +{ + "note": "Wording-only rewrites of the frozen audit annotations for release dashboard-data-20261006 (scripts/release_20261006.py applies them before the adjudications; tests/test_release_20261006.py keeps them in force). Each replaces a field's whole old text with its whole new text. None changes a failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, exclusion, reference or score. Each group was drafted from its audit's evidence, checked by an adversarial verifier, and revised; each group's evidence file quotes the model explanations and engine values behind every changed number.", + "groups": [ + { + "group": "salt", + "scope": "d963: scenario_022 and scenario_081 federal income tax (SALT withholding estimate)", + "note": "Wording-only rewrites of the frozen audit annotations for scenario_022 and scenario_081 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits (salt group, release dashboard-data-20261006). The references fill the state income tax part of SALT with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's formula estimate of withholding on federal AGI ($6,058.85 CA; $8,484.41 MA), which no prompt lists; the household's engine liabilities are $2,505.87 (on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts; the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on 1.755.4 without that hold) and $8,238.41. Each rewrite replaces a field's whole old text (verbatim from git HEAD ad8a2d562b8fe33e1d08cc74f77c6d70c2fcf917) with its whole new text. None changes a failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, exclusion, reference or score; the release appends the developer adjudication sentence to each case note separately. Engine values: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final (engine_values.json).", + "rewrites": 81, + "evidence": "docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/salt.json" + }, + { + "group": "s114", + "scope": "d963 and d974: scenario_114 federal and Virginia income tax (SALT withholding estimate, Medicare Part B premium)", + "note": "Wording-only rewrites of the frozen audit annotations for scenario_114 (Virginia, single, age 69): federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits and state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, both excluded in release dashboard-data-20261006 (d963, d974). Each replaces a field's whole old text with its whole new text. They correct the Virginia case note's error group (4) and the rows that repeat it (the engine's Virginia itemized deduction itself leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses and applies the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor; the short answers miss the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine adds), the SALT state income tax figure ($5,367.59 -> $5,367.30, the engine's Virginia withholding estimate, not tax the household is stated to have paid), the federal note's group (3), the 'non-deductible' label, and the two reference explanations. One standard is applied to every row on the two outputs: no text presents the $5,367.30 withholding estimate (or the $9,431.59 SALT that includes it) or the imputed $2,434.80 Part B premium as the household's own fact, faults a model for leaving either out as if the prompt listed it, or calls an estimate-based figure ($24,787.23, $19,419.94 and the totals built on them) 'correct' or 'allowed'; such figures are 'the engine's'. Rows whose answers match the engine without both unlisted inputs (kimi-k3 and gpt-5.6-sol federal $11,969.80; their Virginia standard-deduction paths, and grok-4.7's, against the engine's $4,127.67 reading) now say so. Engine values: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final on Scenario.to_pe_household (PolicyEngine/policybench#193 comment, re-run for this ledger). None changes a failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, exclusion, reference or score; the release appends the developer adjudication to each case note.", + "rewrites": 67, + "evidence": "docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/s114.json" + }, + { + "group": "payroll", + "scope": "d972: scenario_032, 043, 081 and 082 payroll tax (optional employer pass-through of state paid-leave premiums)", + "note": "Wording-only rewrites of the frozen audit annotations for the four payroll_tax outputs whose references count an optional employer pass-through (scenario_032 MN Paid Leave, scenario_043 CO FAMLI, scenario_081 MA PFML, scenario_082 NY PFL and DBL; reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll). Release dashboard-data-20261006 excludes these outputs; the text now says the reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct or collect, and that federal payroll tax alone is the answer when only what the law requires of the employee counts. It also fixes scenario_032's note (seven models included the paid-leave share, six match), scenario_043's FICA figure ($312.74), the unsupported $95,350.72 New York wage cap and a wrong engine variable name. Each replaces a field's whole old text with its whole new text. None changes a failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, exclusion, reference or score; the developer adjudication sentence is appended to the case notes separately.", + "rewrites": 151, + "evidence": "docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/payroll.json" + }, + { + "group": "louisiana", + "scope": "Louisiana ruling (PR #192): scenario_051 and scenario_077 Louisiana income tax, kept scored at $12,835", + "note": "Wording-only rewrites for scenario_051 and scenario_077 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits (Louisiana), which stay scored at the $12,835 deduction (release dashboard-data-20261006, ruling 'louisiana', PolicyEngine/policybench#192). The case notes replace the unsourced 'inflation-indexed ... $12,835' wording with the sourced chain in reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md (Recommendation item 2), adapted to each note; scenario_077 records that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used the $12,875 withholding amount on the $23,006 AGI the prompt's figures give. Three more scenario_077 row annotations (claude-sonnet-4.6, claude-sonnet-5, deepseek-v4-flash-0731) drop a misdated repeal or an unsupported attribution. Old text is the committed CSV field at HEAD of release-exclusions-batch. Engine figures are policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final (reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json). No failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, reference or score changes, and no adjudication sentence is added; scenario_051 keeps its existing 2026-09-22 adjudication sentence verbatim.", + "rewrites": 7, + "evidence": "docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/louisiana.json" + } + ], + "rewrites": [ + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old note called the engine's $6,058.85 withholding estimate the household's estimated California income tax and faulted models that used their own California tax or none. It now describes it as the engine's estimate of tax withheld and gives the values under the engine's liability ($11,895.23; $12,013.38 corrected) and with no state income tax paid ($12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the engine's local sales tax estimate). It names the engine version behind $2,505.87 and $1,968.81, because the published California reference for this household is $2,439.65.", + "old": "The head is widowed but has no dependent child, so qualifying surviving spouse status is unavailable and the return is filed as single, with the 22% rate starting above $50,400. Under 2026 OBBBA law the return itemizes $29,735.52. That figure is $14,887.85 of SALT, meaning $8,829 of property tax plus about $6,059 of estimated CA income tax under the $40,400 cap, and $14,847.67 of charity after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor. On top of that come the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income. The wrong answers split three ways: 16 used joint/QSS brackets, 8 applied the expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions, 15%/25% brackets), and the rest filed single but left out or understated the CA income-tax SALT component, the senior deduction, or the QBI deduction.", + "new": "The head is widowed but has no dependent child, so qualifying surviving spouse status is unavailable and the return is filed as single, with the 22% rate starting above $50,400. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid. In the reference the return itemizes $29,735.52: $14,887.85 of SALT, which is $8,829 of property tax plus $6,058.85, the engine's estimate of California income tax withheld (a formula on federal AGI), under the $40,400 cap, and $14,847.67 of charity after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor. On top of that come the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income. On policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts held for 2026, the system that built this reference, the household's California income tax is $2,505.87; the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold. With $2,505.87 in SALT the return still itemizes ($26,182.54) and the output is $11,895.23. The household's California output is itself excluded for an engine defect, and with its corrected value, $1,968.81 (recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4), the output is $12,013.38. With no state income tax paid, SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60 ($963 state plus a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality), and the output is $12,192.29, or $12,234.66 without the local part. The wrong answers split three ways: 16 used joint/QSS brackets, 8 applied the expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 2% miscellaneous deductions, 15%/25% brackets), and the rest include models that filed single but put no state income tax in SALT or their own California tax estimate ($1,867 to $2,700), or left out the senior deduction or the QBI deduction. Grok 4.7 and Inkling answered $12,192, within $1 of the no-payment value of $12,192.29, though each put its own California tax estimate in SALT." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old note called the engine's $8,484.41 withholding estimate the household's Massachusetts income tax and described models that deducted their own Massachusetts tax as low. It now describes the estimate as such, gives the values under the engine's liability ($26,991.31; $26,992.64 corrected) and with no state income tax paid ($28,763.81), and names the four answers within $1 of the corrected-liability value.", + "old": "For 2026, OBBBA makes the TCJA 10/12/22/24% brackets and the $0 personal exemption permanent and raises the SALT cap to $40,400. That makes $14,127.41 of SALT fully deductible: $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax. Adding $16,900 of mortgage interest gives $31,027.41 of itemized deductions, well above the $16,100 standard deduction. Taxable income is $143,059.47, and the tax is $17,966 + 24% × $37,359.47 = $26,932.27. The wrong answers fall into five traps: applying the expired $10,000 SALT cap (about $27,923), leaving Massachusetts income tax out of SALT (about $28,969), assuming a TCJA sunset with personal exemptions and 15/25/28% brackets (about $29,100–$30,000), subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, and near misses that put Massachusetts income tax a few hundred dollars low.", + "new": "For 2026, OBBBA makes the TCJA 10/12/22/24% brackets and the $0 personal exemption permanent and raises the SALT cap to $40,400. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid. In the reference, SALT is $14,127.41, fully deductible: $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41, the engine's estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 personal exemption). Adding $16,900 of mortgage interest gives $31,027.41 of itemized deductions, well above the $16,100 standard deduction. Taxable income is $143,059.47, and the tax is $17,966 + 24% × $37,359.47 = $26,932.27. The engine's own Massachusetts income tax for the household is $8,238.41; with it in SALT the output is $26,991.31. The household's Massachusetts output is itself excluded for an engine defect, and with its corrected value, $8,232.90, the output is $26,992.64. With no state income tax paid, SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. The wrong answers fall into five groups: applying the expired $10,000 SALT cap (about $27,923), putting no state income tax and no sales tax in SALT (about $28,969), assuming a TCJA sunset with personal exemptions and 15/25/28% brackets (mostly about $29,100 to $30,200), subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, and near misses that put their own Massachusetts income tax estimate in SALT, mostly about $8,230 to $8,390, where the reference has the withholding estimate. Four answers are within $1 of the corrected-liability value: GPT-5.6 Sol ($26,992.59), Claude Opus 5.5 ($26,992.66), and GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol ($26,993.29)." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old explanation labelled $31,028.65 (itemized deductions plus the $1.24 QBI deduction) as itemized deductions and did not say that SALT rests on the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, an input the prompt never lists; the engine's Massachusetts liability is $8,238.41.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27 for this single Massachusetts resident by first determining adjusted gross income of $174,088.12, which includes $175,002 in employment income, $110.12 in dividend income, and $56 in taxable interest income, reduced by $1,080 in capital losses. The household's taxable income was reduced to $143,059.47 after applying itemized deductions totaling $31,028.65, which consisted of $16,900 in interest deduction and $14,127.41 in state and local tax deduction, plus a $1.24 qualified business income deduction. Applying 2026 federal tax rates to this taxable income yielded a tax liability of $26,932.27, which was lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction ($30,514.85), confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice. No additional taxes or credits adjusted this amount, resulting in the final federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27 for this single Massachusetts resident by first determining adjusted gross income of $174,088.12, which includes $175,002 in employment income, $110.12 in dividend income, and $56 in taxable interest income, reduced by $1,080 in capital losses. The household's taxable income was reduced to $143,059.47 after deductions totaling $31,028.65: itemized deductions of $31,027.41, which consisted of $16,900 in interest deduction and $14,127.41 in state and local tax deduction, plus a $1.24 qualified business income deduction. The state and local tax amount is $5,643 of real estate tax plus $8,484.41, PolicyEngine's estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 personal exemption); the household lists no state income tax withheld or paid, and PolicyEngine computes its Massachusetts income tax as $8,238.41. Applying 2026 federal tax rates to this taxable income yielded a tax liability of $26,932.27, which was lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction ($30,514.85), confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice. No additional taxes or credits adjusted this amount, resulting in the final federal income tax before refundable credits of $26,932.27." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model filed single and correctly applied the $3,951 senior deduction and $910 QBI deduction. Its SALT deduction included only the $8,829 of property tax, leaving out the roughly $6,059 of California income tax that counts under the $40,400 cap. It also skipped the 2026 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, so it itemized $24,222 instead of $29,735.52 and got taxable income of $80,066 instead of $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model filed single and applied the $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction as the engine does. It treated California income tax withheld as unknown and put only the $8,829 of property tax in SALT, and it skipped the 2026 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, so it itemized $24,222 and got taxable income of $80,066. The reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $29,735.52 itemized and $74,552.59 taxable. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes its general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60 ($963 state plus a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality), and the output is $12,192.29, or $12,234.66 without the local part; the model's $12,327 also leaves out that sales tax and the charitable floor." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used qualifying surviving spouse status (joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction), but that status requires a dependent child, so single filing applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI, and it added a non-itemizer charitable deduction when itemizing $29,735.52 beats the $18,150 single standard deduction.", + "new": "The model used qualifying surviving spouse status (joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction), but that status requires a dependent child, so single filing applies. It also took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down above $75,000 of MAGI, and it added a non-itemizer charitable deduction, although a single filer here itemizes: $29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 single standard deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model treated the head as a qualifying surviving spouse with MFJ brackets and a $33,950 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the correct status is single, with 22% applying above $50,400. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction, and it never counted CA income tax in SALT, which would have made itemizing ($29,735.52) the better choice.", + "new": "The model treated the head as a qualifying surviving spouse with MFJ brackets and a $33,950 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the correct status is single, with 22% applying above $50,400. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list; the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $29,735.52 itemized. As a single filer the head itemizes either way, since the model's own $24,222 of property tax and charity already exceeds the $18,150 single standard deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model itemized only $24,222, leaving the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT and skipping the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It then took an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. On its own $78,017 of taxable income, the single brackets give about $11,876, so its $8,547 is an arithmetic error.", + "new": "The model itemized $24,222, with no state income tax in SALT and no 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor; the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $29,735.52 itemized. It then took an unphased $6,000 senior deduction, which the engine phases down to $3,951.05. On its own $78,017 of taxable income, the single brackets give about $11,876, so its $8,547 is an arithmetic error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied qualifying surviving spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. Under single status, itemizing $29,735.52 (SALT including CA income tax, plus charity after the 0.5% floor) beats the $18,150 standard deduction, and the tax falls in the 22% bracket.", + "new": "The model applied qualifying surviving spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. A single filer here itemizes under every reading of the unlisted state income tax: $29,735.52 in the reference (SALT with the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus charity after the 0.5% floor) and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 standard deduction. The tax falls in the 22% bracket." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used MFJ/surviving spouse treatment with a $32,600 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the head files single. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions and left CA income tax out of SALT, and it applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap. Its final $6,800 is also below its own $8,700 estimate.", + "new": "The model used MFJ/surviving spouse treatment with a $32,600 standard deduction, but with no dependent child the head files single. It skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and it held SALT, property tax plus other state taxes, to the old $10,000 cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap. Under that cap SALT is $14,887.85 in the reference, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $11,334.87 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts). Its final $6,800 is also below its own $8,700 estimate." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used surviving spouse joint treatment (a $32,500 standard deduction and the 2025 MFJ $23,850 10% bracket), but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction, the $910 QBI deduction and the CA income tax component of SALT.", + "new": "The model used surviving spouse joint treatment (a $32,500 standard deduction and the 2025 MFJ $23,850 10% bracket), but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the phased $3,951 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, and it put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied pre-TCJA law for 2026: a $5,300 personal exemption, 2%-floor unreimbursed employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent, kept miscellaneous itemized deductions suspended, and kept personal exemptions at zero. It also estimated CA income tax at only $2,019 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the senior and QBI deductions.", + "new": "The model applied pre-TCJA law for 2026: a $5,300 personal exemption, 2%-floor unreimbursed employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent, kept miscellaneous itemized deductions suspended, and kept personal exemptions at zero. In SALT it put $2,019 of state income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model itemized only property tax and charity ($24,222), leaving out the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax and the 0.5% charitable floor. It omitted both the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, so it taxed $84,926.75 instead of $74,552.59 using bracket widths that do not match the 2026 single schedule.", + "new": "The model itemized only property tax and charity ($24,222), with no state income tax in SALT and no 0.5% charitable floor; the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. It omitted both the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, so it taxed $84,926.75 (the reference taxes $74,552.59), using bracket widths that do not match the 2026 single schedule." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied pre-TCJA 2026 law: a $5,000 personal exemption, a deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses above a 2% floor, and 10%/15%/25% brackets. Under OBBBA, exemptions stay at zero, miscellaneous itemized deductions stay suspended, and the 10/12/22% brackets apply. It also left CA income tax out of SALT and skipped the $3,951 senior deduction.", + "new": "The model applied pre-TCJA 2026 law: a $5,000 personal exemption, a deduction for unreimbursed employee expenses above a 2% floor, and 10%/15%/25% brackets. Under OBBBA, exemptions stay at zero, miscellaneous itemized deductions stay suspended, and the 10/12/22% brackets apply. It also put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), and skipped the $3,951 senior deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model said it itemized mortgage interest, but no interest paid is given, only a loan balance. It never mentioned the CA income tax SALT component, the 0.5% charitable floor, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction. Its $11,335 does not follow from the correct $74,552.59 of taxable income taxed at single rates.", + "new": "The model said it itemized mortgage interest, but no interest paid is given, only a loan balance. It never mentioned state income tax in SALT, the 0.5% charitable floor, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction. Its $11,335 matches none of the engine's values: $11,113.57 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT, and $12,192.29 with no state income tax paid." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used pre-TCJA itemized deductions (about $33,297, including 2%-floor employee expenses) plus personal exemptions, even though OBBBA permanently suspended both for 2026. It also left out the senior and QBI deductions that reduce taxable income to $74,552.59 under the 10/12/22% single brackets.", + "new": "The model used pre-TCJA itemized deductions (about $33,297, including 2%-floor employee expenses) plus personal exemptions, even though OBBBA permanently suspended both for 2026. It also left out the $3,951.05 senior and $910 QBI deductions, which with the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions bring taxable income to $74,552.59, taxed under the 10/12/22% single brackets." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model computed tax under TCJA-expiration rules: a $5,050 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and post-sunset rates. OBBBA kept the TCJA brackets, zero exemptions and the suspension of miscellaneous deductions. It also estimated CA income tax at $2,172 instead of about $6,059 and omitted the senior and QBI deductions.", + "new": "The model computed tax under TCJA-expiration rules: a $5,050 personal exemption, $6,168 of 2%-floor employee expenses and post-sunset rates. OBBBA kept the TCJA brackets, zero exemptions and the suspension of miscellaneous deductions. It put $2,172 of California income tax in SALT, its own estimate; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the senior and QBI deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model gave no derivation. Its $13,446 corresponds to about $85,150 of single-filer taxable income, which is AGI minus only property tax and charity. That means it left out the CA income tax SALT component, the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, which together bring taxable income down to $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model gave no derivation. Its $13,446 corresponds to about $85,150 of single-filer taxable income, close to AGI minus only property tax and charity ($84,926.75). That suggests it put no state income tax in SALT and left out the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction. With those deductions the reference's taxable income is $74,552.59; its SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 OBBBA cap of $40,400, under which the full $14,887.85 of property plus CA income tax is deductible, and it skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction, leaving taxable income at $82,846 instead of $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model applied the old $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 OBBBA cap of $40,400, under which SALT is deductible in full: $14,887.85 in the reference (property tax plus the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld) and $11,334.87 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts). It also skipped the 0.5% charitable floor and omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction, leaving taxable income at $82,846 (the reference's is $74,552.59)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model itemized unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are permanently nondeductible under OBBBA. It omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction, and it did not capture the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax in SALT, so it overstated tax at $13,200.", + "new": "The model itemized unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are permanently nondeductible under OBBBA. It omitted the $3,951.05 phased senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction and listed no state income tax in SALT. Its $13,200 is above the engine's value under every reading of that unlisted tax: $11,113.57 in the reference, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) and $12,192.29 with none paid." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model filed single but used 2025 brackets and a $15,000 standard deduction. It left the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor, and it omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 phased down to $3,951.05). As a result it taxed $84,016.75 instead of $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model filed single but used 2025 brackets and a $15,000 standard deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor, and it omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 phased down to $3,951.05). As a result it taxed $84,016.75; the reference taxes $74,552.59, with SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model subtracted $5,850 of federal withholding that does not appear in the facts, and withholding is never subtracted from tax before refundable credits in any case. It also treated the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses as an above-the-line adjustment and added tax-exempt pension income to AGI. It used the standard deduction instead of the $29,735.52 of itemized deductions and omitted the senior and QBI deductions.", + "new": "The model subtracted $5,850 of federal withholding that does not appear in the facts, and withholding is never subtracted from tax before refundable credits in any case. It also treated the $8,351 of unreimbursed employee expenses as an above-the-line adjustment and added tax-exempt pension income to AGI. It used the standard deduction although the head itemizes under every reading of the unlisted state income tax ($29,735.52 in the reference, $24,832.27 with none paid, against the $18,150 standard deduction), and it omitted the senior and QBI deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model claimed deductions and credits wipe out all tax, but AGI is $109,149.16 and total deductions are only $34,596.57. That leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income, and no nonrefundable credit offsets it: the elderly credit is phased out by AGI and Social Security. Its assertion that there is no taxable wage income ignores the $52,635 of wages.", + "new": "The model claimed deductions and credits wipe out all tax, but AGI is $109,149.16 and the engine's total deductions are at most $34,596.57 under any reading of the unlisted state income tax (the reference's figure, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld). That leaves at least $74,552.59 of taxable income, and the engine allows no nonrefundable credit, the elderly credit included. Its assertion that there is no taxable wage income ignores the $52,635 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model's $1,237 implies only about $12,400 of taxable income, which means it deducted roughly $96,700 from $109,149.16 of AGI. The correct deductions are $29,735.52 itemized, $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior, leaving $74,552.59 taxable in the 22% bracket, with no nonrefundable credits available.", + "new": "The model's $1,237 implies only about $12,400 of taxable income, which means it deducted roughly $96,800 from $109,149.16 of AGI. The reference's deductions are $29,735.52 itemized (with SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior, leaving $74,552.59 taxable in the 22% bracket, and the other readings of that unlisted tax leave more. The engine allows no nonrefundable credits." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "Under single rates, the model's $10,247 implies about $70,600 of taxable income, which means it claimed roughly $3,900 more than the correct $34,596.57 of total deductions. The correct stack is $29,735.52 itemized (with charity reduced by the 0.5% AGI floor), $910 QBI and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 taxable.", + "new": "Under single rates, the model's $10,247 implies about $70,600 of taxable income, which means it claimed roughly $3,900 more than the reference's $34,596.57 of total deductions. The reference's stack is $29,735.52 itemized (with charity reduced by the 0.5% AGI floor and SALT that adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), $910 QBI and the senior deduction phased down to $3,951.05, which leaves $74,552.59 taxable. The other readings of that unlisted tax give smaller deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied surviving-spouse joint-rate treatment and a joint-level age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child. Single status taxes income above $50,400 at 22%, and itemizing $29,735.52 beats the $18,150 single standard deduction.", + "new": "The model applied surviving-spouse joint-rate treatment and a joint-level age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child. Single status taxes income above $50,400 at 22%, and a single filer here itemizes: $29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $24,832.27 with no state income tax paid, both above the $18,150 single standard deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used the surviving-spouse (joint) tax schedule, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also never mentioned the senior deduction or the QBI deduction, which reduce taxable income to $74,552.59 under the single brackets.", + "new": "The model used the surviving-spouse (joint) tax schedule, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also never mentioned the $3,951.05 senior deduction or the $910 QBI deduction, which help bring the reference's taxable income to $74,552.59." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model's senior deduction ($3,951.08) and QBI deduction ($910) were correct, but it used qualifying surviving spouse status, which requires a dependent child, taking the $33,850 joint standard deduction and joint brackets. As a single filer it itemizes $29,735.52, and taxable income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%.", + "new": "The model's senior deduction ($3,951.08) and QBI deduction ($910) were correct, but it used qualifying surviving spouse status, which requires a dependent child, taking the $33,850 joint standard deduction and joint brackets. As a single filer the head itemizes ($29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld), and taxable income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "Under single rates, the model's $9,651 implies about $67,900 of taxable income, roughly $6,600 below the correct $74,552.59, so its itemized and senior/QBI deductions total well above the correct $34,596.57. It overstated itemized deductions beyond the $14,887.85 of SALT plus $14,847.67 of charity left after the 0.5% floor.", + "new": "Under single rates, the model's $9,651 implies about $67,900 of taxable income, roughly $6,600 below the reference's $74,552.59, so its itemized, senior and QBI deductions total well above the reference's $34,596.57. The reference itemizes $14,887.85 of SALT, which adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus $14,847.67 of charity left after the 0.5% floor; the other readings of that unlisted tax give less." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model filed single and phased the senior deduction correctly to $3,951, but it estimated CA income tax at only about $2,234 instead of about $6,059, which put SALT near $11,063 instead of $14,887.85. It also left out the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, so it taxed $78,742 instead of $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model filed single and phased the senior deduction correctly to $3,951, and it itemized about $26,456 without a breakdown. That is $273.46 above the $26,182.54 the engine itemizes with its own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT and $3,279.52 below the reference's $29,735.52, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also left out the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, so it taxed about $78,742; with the engine's California income tax in SALT, taxable income is $78,105.58 and the output $11,895.23, against its $12,035." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 joint age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. As a single filer the head itemizes $29,735.52, and the 22% rate applies above $50,400, which gives $11,113.57 instead of $7,956.52.", + "new": "The model used surviving-spouse joint brackets and the $33,850 joint age-adjusted standard deduction, but that status requires a dependent child and single status applies. As a single filer the head itemizes and the 22% rate applies above $50,400, which gives $11,113.57 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and $11,895.23 with the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts), instead of $7,956.52." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model applied a $30,000 QSS standard deduction and QSS brackets, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also omitted the itemized deductions ($29,735.52), the phased $3,951.05 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction.", + "new": "The model applied a $30,000 QSS standard deduction and QSS brackets, but the head has no dependent child and files single. It also left out itemizing ($29,735.52 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, and at least $24,832.27 under each reading of that unlisted tax), the phased $3,951.05 senior deduction and the $910 QBI deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model assumed TCJA sunset, deducting 2%-floor employee expenses and a $5,419 personal exemption under pre-TCJA single brackets. OBBBA permanently kept those deductions at zero and kept the 10/12/22% schedule. It also underestimated CA income tax at about $2,103 and omitted the senior and QBI deductions.", + "new": "The model assumed TCJA sunset, deducting 2%-floor employee expenses and a $5,419 personal exemption under pre-TCJA single brackets. OBBBA permanently kept those deductions at zero and kept the 10/12/22% schedule. In SALT it put $2,103 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the senior and QBI deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model's structure was correct: single status, itemizing, a $3,951 senior deduction and a $910 QBI deduction. However, it estimated CA income tax at only $1,974 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor, which put taxable income at $78,092 instead of $74,552.59. It also used bracket amounts that do not match the 2026 single schedule.", + "new": "The model's structure matched the engine's: single status, itemizing, a $3,951 senior deduction and a $910 QBI deduction. In SALT it put $1,974 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer, and it skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor, for taxable income of $78,092. With the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) in SALT, taxable income is $78,105.58 and the output $11,895.23; the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $74,552.59 and $11,113.57. It also used bracket amounts that do not match the 2026 single schedule, reaching $11,953." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model estimated CA income tax at only $1,867 instead of about $6,059, which put SALT at $10,696 instead of $14,887.85. It dropped the $910 QBI deduction on rental income and used 2026 bracket amounts that are wrong ($12,225/$49,675 instead of $12,400/$50,400).", + "new": "The model put $1,867 of California income tax in SALT, the same figure as its California income tax answer, for SALT of $10,696. With the engine's own California income tax ($2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts) SALT is $11,334.87, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, for $14,887.85. It dropped the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, skipped the 0.5% charitable floor and used 2026 bracket amounts that are wrong ($12,225/$49,675 instead of $12,400/$50,400). Its $12,192 lands within $1 of the $12,192.29 the engine gives with no state income tax paid, by a different route." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model included 100% of Social Security in AGI instead of the 85% taxable portion, and it applied pre-TCJA law, with 2%-floor employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets, that OBBBA permanently displaced. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions and underestimated CA income tax at $2,254.", + "new": "The model included 100% of Social Security in AGI instead of the 85% taxable portion, and it applied pre-TCJA law, with 2%-floor employee expenses and 15%/25% brackets, that OBBBA permanently displaced. It also skipped the senior and QBI deductions, and in SALT it put $2,254 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model subtracted about $901 of rental depreciation that is not in the facts, which lowered AGI and threw off the senior-deduction phase-down, and it estimated CA income tax at about $2,024 instead of about $6,059. It also omitted the $910 QBI deduction and used wrong 2026 single bracket thresholds.", + "new": "The model subtracted about $901 of rental depreciation that is not in the facts, which lowered AGI and threw off the senior-deduction phase-down. In SALT it put about $2,024 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer; the engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, and the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also omitted the $910 QBI deduction, and its tax does not follow from the 2026 single brackets on its own $78,538 of taxable income, which give $11,990.36. Its $12,192 lands within $1 of the $12,192.29 the engine gives with no state income tax paid, by a different route." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model's structure was correct (single status, the $40,400 SALT cap, a $3,951.08 senior deduction and correct brackets), but it estimated CA income tax at $2,700 instead of about $6,059 and skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor. It also declined the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, which gave $78,275.67 of taxable income instead of $74,552.59.", + "new": "The model's structure matched the engine's (single status, the $40,400 SALT cap, a $3,951.08 senior deduction and the 2026 brackets). In SALT it put $2,700 of California income tax, the same figure as its California income tax answer and $194.13 above the engine's own $2,505.87 (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts); the reference instead uses the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld. It also skipped the 0.5% AGI charitable floor and declined the $910 QBI deduction on rental income, which gave $78,275.67 of taxable income, against $78,105.58 with the engine's California income tax in SALT and $74,552.59 in the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model counted non-deductible items (employee business expenses, health premiums below the 7.5% floor, and invented mortgage interest) as itemized deductions and concluded taxable income was negative. The allowable itemized deductions are only $29,735.52, which leaves $74,552.59 of taxable income, and no nonrefundable credit offsets that tax.", + "new": "The model counted non-deductible items (employee business expenses, health premiums below the 7.5% floor, and invented mortgage interest) as itemized deductions and concluded taxable income was negative. Across the readings of the unlisted state income tax the engine itemizes at most $29,735.52, the reference's, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld; with the $910 QBI and $3,951.05 senior deductions that leaves at least $74,552.59 of taxable income, and the engine allows no nonrefundable credit to offset the tax." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model's $9,260 is consistent with joint/surviving-spouse brackets (a 12% top bracket) applied to about $81,300 of taxable income. The head has no dependent child and files single, where income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%. It also never mentioned the CA income tax SALT component or the phased senior deduction.", + "new": "The model's $9,260 is consistent with joint/surviving-spouse brackets (a 12% top bracket) applied to about $81,300 of taxable income. The head has no dependent child and files single, where income above $50,400 is taxed at 22%. It also never mentioned the phased senior deduction or any state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference's SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's California tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $6,058.85 formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI. The engine's own California income tax for the household is $2,505.87 on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with California's 2025 amounts, the system that built this reference (the published California reference, $2,439.65, was frozen on policyengine-us 1.755.4 without that hold); with it in SALT the output is $11,895.23. With no state income tax paid SALT takes the engine's general sales tax estimate, $1,155.60, which includes a $192.60 local estimate for an unlisted locality (output $12,192.29; $12,234.66 without the local part).", + "old": "The model claimed taxable income is too low to owe tax, but AGI is $109,149.16. Even the most generous deductions ($29,735.52 itemized, $910 QBI and a $3,951.05 senior deduction) leave $74,552.59 taxable, which puts the head in the 22% bracket.", + "new": "The model claimed taxable income is too low to owe tax, but AGI is $109,149.16. Across the readings of the unlisted state income tax the engine's deductions are at most the reference's: $29,735.52 itemized, whose SALT adds the engine's $6,058.85 estimate of California income tax withheld, plus $910 QBI and a $3,951.05 senior deduction. Those leave $74,552.59 taxable, which puts the head in the 22% bracket." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax as SALT and set Massachusetts income tax to zero. The $8,484.41 of MA income tax is deductible under the 2026 $40,400 cap, so its itemized total fell from $31,027 to $22,543 and taxable income was about $8,490 too high. It then used a wrong $17,754.75 base for the 24% bracket (the correct figure is $17,966) and added an unexplained ~$626 on top, giving $29,385.", + "new": "It treated Massachusetts income tax withholding as 0 and counted only the $5,643 real estate tax as SALT, so it itemized $22,543 for taxable income of about $151,550. The prompt lists no state income tax paid; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption), for $31,027.41 itemized and $143,059.47 taxable. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. It then used a wrong $17,754.75 base for the 24% bracket (the 2026 figure is $17,966) and added an unexplained ~$626 on top, giving $29,385." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its method is correct, but it put deductible Massachusetts income tax at about $8,230 instead of $8,484.41. It also added the $6 REIT/PTP income on top of dividends, making AGI $174,094. Together these overstate taxable income by about $261 (143,320 vs 143,059.47), which is $63 of tax at 24%.", + "new": "It deducted about $8,230 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and close to the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. It also added the $6 REIT/PTP income on top of dividends, making AGI $174,094 against the engine's $174,088.12. With the engine's liability in SALT the output is $26,991.31; its taxable income of about $143,320 and $26,995 compare with that reading's $143,305.47 and $26,991.31, and with the reference's $143,059.47 and $26,932.27." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It took a 2024-level $14,600 standard deduction and claimed the $16,900 of mortgage interest was below that threshold. In fact mortgage interest plus $14,127.41 of SALT gives $31,027 of itemized deductions, far above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It also subtracted the $1,782 of unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are nondeductible, used 2024 brackets, and then submitted $29,825, which differs from its own $30,956.92 result.", + "new": "It took a 2024-level $14,600 standard deduction and claimed the $16,900 of mortgage interest was below that threshold. In fact mortgage interest alone exceeds even that, and the engine itemizes $31,027.41 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and $23,396 with no state income tax paid, both above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It also subtracted the $1,782 of unreimbursed employee business expenses, which are nondeductible, used 2024 brackets, and then submitted $29,825, which differs from its own $30,956.92 result." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It capped SALT at $10,000, but OBBBA sets the 2026 cap at $40,400, so the full $14,127.41 (real estate tax plus MA income tax) is deductible. That cut about $4,127 from itemized deductions and pushed taxable income to $147,187. It then dropped its own $27,887 bracket result and submitted an unsupported $31,369.", + "new": "It capped SALT at $10,000, writing 'real estate $5,643 + state income tax well over cap', but the 2026 cap is $40,400, so SALT is deductible in full: $14,127.41 in the reference (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) or $13,881.41 with the engine's own $8,238.41 Massachusetts tax. Against the reference the cap cut $4,127.41 from itemized deductions and pushed taxable income to $147,187. It then dropped its own $27,887 bracket result and submitted an unsupported $31,369." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It applied the expired $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, losing $4,127 of deductible state and property taxes. It also used 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700). Its own computation reached $28,172, but it submitted an unexplained $31,379.", + "new": "It applied the expired $10,000 SALT cap instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld; $13,881.41 with the engine's own Massachusetts tax). It also used 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700). Its own computation reached $28,172, but it submitted an unexplained $31,379." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It itemized only mortgage interest and real estate tax ($22,543) and left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, which is deductible SALT under the $40,400 cap. That put taxable income at $151,544 instead of $143,059.47. Its correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968, which it then inflated without basis to $31,650.", + "new": "It itemized only mortgage interest and real estate tax ($22,543), with no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for taxable income of $143,059.47 against its $151,544; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. Its correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968, which it then inflated without basis to $31,650." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,238.70, which is 5% of income after additional FICA and rent subtractions. The engine deducts $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12. It also counted dividends as $116 by adding the $6 REIT income. Together these raised taxable income by $251.63 to $143,311.10 and tax by $60.39.", + "new": "It deducted $8,238.70 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer (5% of wages after the FICA, personal exemption and rent deductions, plus 5% of its interest and dividends), 29 cents above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12. It also counted dividends as $116 by adding the $6 REIT income. Its taxable income of $143,311.10 and $26,992.66 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT; with the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, within 2 cents of its answer." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax toward SALT and left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, so it itemized $22,543 instead of $31,027 and reached taxable income of $151,551. It then applied 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700), giving $29,219.", + "new": "It counted only the $5,643 real estate tax toward SALT, with no state income tax, which the prompt does not list, so it itemized $22,543 and reached taxable income of $151,551. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $31,027.41 itemized; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81. It then applied 2025 bracket thresholds (11,925/48,475/103,350) instead of the 2026 ones (12,400/50,400/105,700), giving $29,219." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, understating itemized deductions by $4,127. On its own $147,194 of taxable income, the 2026 single brackets give about $27,925. Its $33,700 does not follow from any bracket computation it showed.", + "new": "It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, understating itemized deductions by $4,127.41 against the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld ($3,881.41 against the engine's own Massachusetts tax). On its own $147,194 of taxable income, the 2026 single brackets give about $27,925. Its $33,700 does not follow from any bracket computation it showed." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its approach is correct, but it put Massachusetts income tax at about $8,284 instead of the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Taxable income came out about $207 too high (143,266 vs 143,059.47), which is about $50 of extra tax.", + "new": "It deducted about $8,284 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $45.59 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Its taxable income of about $143,266 and $26,982 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT, and with $143,059.47 and $26,932.27 in the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It applied the $10,000 SALT cap even though OBBBA raises the 2026 cap to $40,400. That dropped about $4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax and left taxable income at $147,194 instead of $143,059.47. It also overshot the correct 2026 bracket result on that income ($27,925) by about $54.", + "new": "It applied the $10,000 SALT cap even though OBBBA raises the 2026 cap to $40,400. That cut $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) and left taxable income at $147,194 instead of the reference's $143,059.47. It also overshot the correct 2026 bracket result on that income ($27,925) by about $54." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It modeled a TCJA sunset: pre-TCJA 10/15/25/28% brackets and a $5,400 personal exemption. OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule and the $0 exemption permanent for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full, and left the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT.", + "new": "It modeled a TCJA sunset: pre-TCJA 10/15/25/28% brackets and a $5,400 personal exemption. OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule and the $0 exemption permanent for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full, and put no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list (the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It applied pre-TCJA law, with a $5,312 personal exemption and the 10/15/25/28% schedule, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also understated SALT at $12,754.55 instead of $14,127.41. Its submitted $27,594.14 contradicts the $29,794.41 in its own explanation.", + "new": "It applied pre-TCJA law, with a $5,312 personal exemption and the 10/15/25/28% schedule, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. It also put SALT at $12,754.55 of property and state tax, which implies $7,111.55 of state income tax, below both the engine's own $8,238.41 Massachusetts tax and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses ($14,127.41 of SALT). Its submitted $27,594.14 contradicts the $29,794.41 in its own explanation." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its structure is correct, but it put deductible Massachusetts income tax at $7,539.70, which is $944.71 below the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Taxable income came out $950.63 too high ($144,010.10), which adds $228.15 of tax at 24%.", + "new": "Its structure matches the engine's, but it deducted $7,539.70 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, which is $698.71 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $944.71 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. It also added the $6 REIT income to AGI. Its taxable income of $144,010.10 and $27,160.42 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It took a $15,000 standard deduction instead of itemizing $16,900 of mortgage interest plus $14,127.41 of SALT ($31,027 total), overstating taxable income by about $16,000. Even on its own $159,094 of taxable income, the 2026 brackets give $30,781, not the $31,317 it submitted.", + "new": "It took a $15,000 standard deduction instead of itemizing $16,900 of mortgage interest plus SALT, which the reference puts at $14,127.41 with the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld ($31,027.41 in all; $23,396 with no state income tax paid), overstating taxable income by about $16,000 against the reference. Even on its own $159,094 of taxable income, the 2026 brackets give $30,781, not the $31,317 it submitted." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It assumed TCJA had expired, with a $5,300 personal exemption and pre-TCJA brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages and deducted only the real estate tax, omitting the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT.", + "new": "It assumed TCJA had expired, with a $5,300 personal exemption and pre-TCJA brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. It also subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages and deducted only the real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT (the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its $169,008 of taxable income is only about $5,000 below AGI, so it left out most of the $31,027 of itemized mortgage interest and SALT that bring taxable income to $143,059.47. Its $24,197 also does not follow from 2026 single brackets on $169,008, which give about $33,160.", + "new": "Its $169,008 of taxable income is only about $5,000 below AGI, so it left out most of the itemized mortgage interest and SALT: $31,027.41 in the reference, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and $23,396 with no state income tax paid. Its $24,197 also does not follow from 2026 single brackets on $169,008, which give about $33,160." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full. It also dropped the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT, itemizing only $22,543. These two errors offset each other into taxable income of $144,151, on which the 2026 brackets give $27,194; it then misapplied the brackets and reported $27,858.", + "new": "It subtracted the $7,389 ESI premium from the $175,002 wages, which the engine counts in full. It also put no state income tax in SALT, itemizing only $22,543; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. These two choices offset each other into taxable income of $144,151, on which the 2026 brackets give $27,194; it then misapplied the brackets and reported $27,858." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "The correct derivation is taxable income of $143,059.47 taxed at 24% above $105,700, which yields $26,932.27. Its $24,907 implies taxable income of about $134,620, which is roughly $8,440 of excess deductions. That is consistent with subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages and over-deducting on top of the correct $31,027 of itemized deductions.", + "new": "The reference taxes $143,059.47 at 24% above $105,700, which yields $26,932.27; its itemized deductions of $31,027.41 include the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. The model's $24,907 implies taxable income of about $134,620, roughly $8,440 of deductions beyond the reference's. That is consistent with subtracting the $7,389 ESI premium from wages and over-deducting on top of the reference's itemized deductions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It correctly estimated $8,238 of Massachusetts income tax, but then capped total SALT at $10,000. OBBBA's 2026 cap is $40,400, so the full $14,127.41 is deductible. That understated itemized deductions by about $4,127 and gave taxable income of $147,187, and it then overshot the 2026 bracket tax on that income ($27,923) by $127.", + "new": "It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,238.40, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and within a cent of the engine's own $8,238.41 liability, but then capped total SALT at $10,000. The 2026 cap is $40,400, so SALT is deductible in full: $13,881.41 with that liability, for an output of $26,991.31, and $14,127.41 in the reference, which uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. The cap put its taxable income at $147,187, and it then overshot the 2026 bracket tax on that income ($27,923) by $127." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,388.70 instead of $8,484.41 and added the $6 REIT income to AGI, leaving taxable income at $143,161.10. On that figure its own bracket components sum to $26,956.66. It mis-added them and reported $26,916.66, $40 below its own components.", + "new": "It put Massachusetts income tax at $8,388.70, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, between the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses, and it added the $6 REIT income to AGI, leaving taxable income at $143,161.10. On that figure its own bracket components sum to $26,956.66. It mis-added them and reported $26,916.66, $40 below its own components." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax. With that cap, taxable income is about $147,187 and 2026 tax is about $27,923. Its $22,450 is roughly $5,500 below even that, so it also misapplied the single rate schedule.", + "new": "It capped SALT at $10,000 instead of the 2026 $40,400 cap, cutting $4,127.41 from the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT (real estate tax plus the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld). With that cap, taxable income is about $147,187 and 2026 tax is about $27,923. Its $22,450 is roughly $5,500 below even that, so it also misapplied the single rate schedule." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its $41,495 exceeds the $34,379 that the 2026 single brackets produce on the full $174,088 AGI with no deduction at all. So it neither subtracted the $31,027 of itemized deductions nor applied the 10/12/22/24% schedule, whose 24% bracket runs to $201,775.", + "new": "Its $41,495 exceeds the $34,379 that the 2026 single brackets produce on the full $174,088 AGI with no deduction at all. So it neither subtracted its itemized deductions ($31,027.41 in the reference, $23,396 with no state income tax paid) nor applied the 10/12/22/24% schedule, whose 24% bracket runs to $201,775." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its itemized deductions (about $30,933) were close to the correct $31,027. But it added a 2026 personal exemption and taxed the result under the pre-TCJA rate schedule, while OBBBA permanently sets the exemption to $0 and keeps the 10/12/22/24% brackets. That pushed tax to $29,417 instead of $26,932.", + "new": "Its itemized deductions (about $30,933) were close to the reference's $31,027.41, whose SALT adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. But it added a 2026 personal exemption and taxed the result under the pre-TCJA rate schedule, while OBBBA permanently sets the exemption to $0 and keeps the 10/12/22/24% brackets. That pushed tax to $29,417 instead of $26,932." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its itemization, 2026 brackets and QBI treatment match the engine, but it estimated deductible Massachusetts income tax about $250 below the $8,484.41 in the SALT deduction. That overstated taxable income by about $251 and tax by $60.32.", + "new": "Its itemization, 2026 brackets and QBI treatment match the engine's. It gave no state tax figure in this answer; its Massachusetts income tax answer is $8,238.70, and its $26,992.59 is consistent with deducting about that in SALT, where the reference uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. With the engine's own $8,238.41 liability in SALT the output is $26,991.31, and with the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) it is $26,992.64, within 5 cents of its answer." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its approach is correct: itemize mortgage interest plus MA income and property tax, then apply the 2026 24% bracket. It understated deductible Massachusetts income tax by about $141 relative to the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT figure, which adds $33.94 of tax.", + "new": "Its approach matches the engine's: itemize mortgage interest plus Massachusetts income and property tax, then apply the 2026 24% bracket. Its Massachusetts income tax answer is $8,338.70, $100.29 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $145.71 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. Its $26,966.21 is $33.94 above the reference and $25.10 below the $26,991.31 the engine gives with its liability in SALT." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies Massachusetts income tax of $8,230.10, which is 5% of $164,602. The engine's SALT deduction uses $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12, so the model took about $5,086 of extra Massachusetts subtractions. That understated itemized deductions by $254.31 and overstated tax by $61.02.", + "new": "Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies $8,230.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $8.31 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12. With the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, and its $26,993.29 is within $1 of that; the reference is $26,932.27." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its method is correct, but its estimated taxable income of about $143,260 is $200 above the correct $143,059.47. That comes from putting deductible Massachusetts income tax about $200 below the $8,484.41 in the engine's $14,127.41 SALT deduction, and it adds $48 of tax.", + "new": "Its method matches the engine's. Its taxable income of about $143,260 is consistent with deducting $8,284, its Massachusetts income tax answer, which is $45.59 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability; the reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $143,059.47. Its $26,980 is $47.73 above the reference and $11.31 below the $26,991.31 the engine gives with its liability in SALT." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It deducted $8,330.10 of Massachusetts income tax instead of the $8,484.41 in the engine's SALT deduction, subtracting about $3,086 more Massachusetts income than the engine does. Taxable income came out $154.23 too high ($143,213.70), which adds $37.02 of tax.", + "new": "It deducted $8,330.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, $91.69 above the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and $154.31 below the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses. Its taxable income of $143,213.70 and $26,969.29 compare with $143,305.47 and $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT, and with $143,059.47 and $26,932.27 in the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies Massachusetts income tax of $8,230.10, which is 5% of $164,602, instead of the engine's $8,484.41, which is 5% of $169,688.12. That understated SALT by $254.31 and raised taxable income to $143,313.70, overstating tax by $61.02.", + "new": "Its $30,773.10 of itemized deductions implies $8,230.10 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer and $8.31 below the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The reference instead uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of $169,688.12, for taxable income of $143,059.47; the model's works out to $143,313.70. With the corrected liability ($8,232.90; the household's Massachusetts output is excluded for an engine defect) the output is $26,992.64, and its $26,993.29 is within $1 of that." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "Its taxable income of about $151,500 is roughly $8,440 above the correct $143,059.47. That matches itemizing only mortgage interest and real estate tax and leaving the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT, which is deductible under the 2026 $40,400 cap.", + "new": "Its taxable income of about $151,500 is roughly $8,440 above the reference's $143,059.47. That matches itemizing only mortgage interest and real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list. With no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81, against its $28,950." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It assumed a 2026 TCJA sunset, subtracting a $5,447 personal exemption and applying restored 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,939) were close to the correct $31,027, so the error is the wrong rate schedule and the phantom exemption.", + "new": "It assumed a 2026 TCJA sunset, subtracting a $5,447 personal exemption and applying restored 10/15/25/28% brackets. OBBBA made the TCJA 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption permanent. Its itemized deductions ($30,939, with $8,396 of Massachusetts income tax) were close to the reference's $31,027.41, so the error is the wrong rate schedule and the phantom exemption." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It modeled a TCJA sunset, with a restored $5,300 personal exemption and 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rates and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. Its $30,932 of itemized deductions was nearly correct, but the pre-TCJA schedule pushed tax to $29,479.", + "new": "It modeled a TCJA sunset, with a restored $5,300 personal exemption and 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rates and the zero exemption permanent for 2026. Its $30,932 of itemized deductions, with $8,389 of Massachusetts income tax, was close to the reference's $31,027.41, but the pre-TCJA schedule pushed tax to $29,479." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It applied post-TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,350 personal exemption and restored 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. Its $30,827.70 of itemized deductions was close to the correct $31,027.41, so the rate-schedule error drives its $29,389.", + "new": "It applied post-TCJA-sunset law, with a $5,350 personal exemption and restored 10/15/25/28% brackets, although OBBBA keeps the 10/12/22/24% schedule and the $0 exemption for 2026. Its $30,827.70 of itemized deductions, with $8,284.70 of Massachusetts income tax, was close to the reference's $31,027.41, so the rate-schedule error drives its $29,389." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It applied reverted pre-TCJA brackets (10% to $12,491, 15%, 25%, 28%) instead of the permanent OBBBA 10/12/22/24% schedule. It also itemized only $22,543, omitting the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT, so taxable income was $151,551 instead of $143,059.47.", + "new": "It applied reverted pre-TCJA brackets (10% to $12,491, 15%, 25%, 28%) instead of the permanent OBBBA 10/12/22/24% schedule. It also itemized only $22,543, with no state income tax in SALT, so taxable income was $151,551; the reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, which the prompt does not list, for $143,059.47." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It estimated Massachusetts income tax at about $8,335 instead of $8,484.41, giving taxable income of about $143,215. On that figure the 2026 brackets give $26,970, and it then misapplied the 24% bracket, adding about $86 more to reach $27,056.", + "new": "It deducted about $8,335 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer, between the engine's own $8,238.41 liability and the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld that the reference uses, giving taxable income of about $143,215. On that figure the 2026 brackets give $26,970, and it then misapplied the 24% bracket, adding about $86 more to reach $27,056." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It itemized only $16,900 of mortgage interest and $5,643 of real estate tax, leaving the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT even though the 2026 $40,400 cap allows it. Taxable income was $151,543.80 instead of $143,059.47, and its otherwise-correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968.51.", + "new": "It itemized only $16,900 of mortgage interest and $5,643 of real estate tax, with no state income tax in SALT, which the prompt does not list. Taxable income was $151,543.80, and its otherwise-correct 2026 bracket math gave $28,968.51. The reference adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, for $143,059.47; with no state income tax paid, the engine's SALT takes $853 of general sales tax and the output is $28,763.81." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It reported $0 with no derivation. A single filer with $174,088 of AGI and $143,059.47 of taxable income owes $26,932.27 under the 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credit to offset it.", + "new": "It reported $0 with no derivation. With $174,088.12 of AGI, the engine's tax is $26,932.27 in the reference (taxable income $143,059.47, with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld) and more under the other readings of that unlisted tax, with no nonrefundable credit to offset it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It estimated Massachusetts income tax at $8,538, which is 5% of income without netting the $1,080 short-term loss. The engine's SALT deduction uses $8,484.41, which is net of that loss. The excess $53.59 of SALT, partly offset by adding $6 of REIT income to AGI, left taxable income $47 low at about $143,012, understating tax by about $11.", + "new": "It deducted $8,538 of Massachusetts income tax, the same figure as its Massachusetts income tax answer: 5% of wages above the $4,400 exemption plus 5% of interest and dividends, without netting the $1,080 short-term loss. The reference uses the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, 5% of federal AGI above the exemption, which nets the loss; the engine's own Massachusetts liability is $8,238.41. The excess $53.59 over the estimate, partly offset by adding $6 of REIT income to AGI, left taxable income $47 below the reference at about $143,012, and its $26,921 is $11.27 below the reference and $70.31 below the $26,991.31 with the engine's liability in SALT." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It claimed the $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower than a $15,000 standard deduction, which is false, and it also omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax. The correct itemized total of $31,027 far exceeds the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It then used non-2026 brackets and submitted $39,827.88, which contradicts its own $31,281.32 calculation.", + "new": "It claimed the $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower than a $15,000 standard deduction, which is false, and it put no state income tax in SALT. The reference itemizes $31,027.41, with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld, and even with no state income tax paid the engine itemizes $23,396; both exceed the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It then used non-2026 brackets and submitted $39,827.88, which contradicts its own $31,281.32 calculation." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "salt", + "reason": "The old text presented the reference's state income tax in SALT as the household's Massachusetts tax or faulted the model against it. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid; the reference fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, the engine's $8,484.41 formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding (5% of federal AGI above the $4,400 exemption). The engine's own Massachusetts income tax is $8,238.41 (output $26,991.31; $26,992.64 with the corrected $8,232.90); with no state income tax paid SALT takes $853 of general sales tax (output $28,763.81).", + "old": "It chose the standard deduction on the claim that itemized deductions were only $22,543. It omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax, and with it the itemized total is $31,027, well above the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. That left taxable income at $160,402, and even there the 2026 brackets give $31,094, not the $30,041 it reported.", + "new": "It chose the standard deduction on the claim that its $22,543 of itemized deductions was lower, though $22,543 already exceeds the $16,100 2026 standard deduction. It put no state income tax in SALT; the reference itemizes $31,027.41 with SALT that adds the engine's $8,484.41 estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld. That left taxable income at $160,402, and even there the 2026 brackets give $31,094, not the $30,041 it reported." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old note gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (the engine has $5,367.30, its Virginia withholding estimate, not tax the household is stated to have paid), called the over-the-counter purchases non-deductible (the engine only leaves them out), stated the Part B premium as a household fact, and said group (3) models picked the standard deduction because of either omission; in the engine only both omissions together reach the standard-deduction path. Group (3) now says those models itemized less than the engine rather than that they understated the household's deductions.", + "old": "The correct 2026 result follows OBBBA law. AGI is $106,572.56, with 85% of Social Security taxable. Itemized deductions total $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78 after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor, SALT $9,431.59 ($4,064 real estate tax plus $5,367.59 state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, with non-deductible OTC purchases excluded, above 7.5% of AGI). That total beats the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. Itemizers still take the $4,105.65 phased senior deduction and the $4,872.35 QBI deduction, leaving $72,807.33 taxed at the permanent TCJA brackets (10% to $12,400, 12% to $50,400, then 22%) for $10,729.61. The wrong answers fall into five groups: (1) applying expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 15%/25% brackets, no QBI); (2) omitting the senior deduction; (3) understating itemized deductions by dropping state income tax from SALT or missing the Part B premium, and so picking the standard deduction; (4) imputing mortgage interest or self-employment tax that the facts do not support; and (5) reporting numbers unrelated to their own arithmetic.", + "new": "The reference follows OBBBA law for 2026. AGI is $106,572.56, with 85% of Social Security taxable. Itemized deductions total $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78 after the new 0.5%-of-AGI floor; SALT $9,431.59, the $4,064.29 real estate tax plus $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld (Virginia's rates on federal AGI less Virginia's $8,750 standard deduction; the prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid); and medical $4,441.86. The engine counts $12,434.80 of medical expenses: the $10,000 of other medical expenses plus a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium ($202.90 a month) that it adds because it treats the 69-year-old as enrolled in Medicare, which the prompt does not state. It does not count the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The deduction is the amount above 7.5% of AGI ($7,992.94). The $24,787.23 total beats the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. Itemizers still take the $4,105.65 phased senior deduction and the $4,872.35 QBI deduction, leaving $72,807.33 taxed at the permanent TCJA brackets (10% to $12,400, 12% to $50,400, then 22%) for $10,729.61. The wrong answers fall into five groups: (1) applying expired pre-TCJA law (personal exemptions, 15%/25% brackets, no QBI); (2) omitting the senior deduction; (3) itemizing less than the engine by putting less state income tax into SALT than the engine's $5,367.30 estimate (none, or the model's own Virginia tax) or by leaving out the Part B premium; in the engine either omission alone still leaves itemizing ahead, and only leaving out both the state income tax and the premium makes the standard-deduction path ($11,969.80) the result, which kimi-k3 ($11,969.85) and gpt-5.6-sol ($11,970) answered, while gpt-6-astra ($11,642.20) and gpt-6.1-sol ($11,642.09) match the engine without the premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT ($11,642.16); (4) imputing mortgage interest or self-employment tax that the facts do not support; and (5) reporting numbers unrelated to their own arithmetic." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old note's group (4) blamed models for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses or applying the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. The engine's own Virginia figure leaves out those expenses and applies the floor. What the short answers miss is the $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine counts in the medical deduction, which the prompt does not state. Group (1) now says the engine takes the Virginia standard deduction too when it counts neither the premium nor its federal SALT withholding estimate, and the $19,419.94 sentence says the filer itemizes federally in the engine.", + "old": "Virginia taxable income here starts from federal AGI ($106,572.56) minus the $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction, giving VA AGI of $86,743.77. The age deduction is zero because a single filer's AFAGI of about $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold. From there, Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94 apply (the filer itemizes federally), plus exemptions of $930 personal and $800 age-65 taken as deductions from income. That leaves $65,593.83, taxed at $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000 = $3,514.15. The wrong answers split five ways: (1) using the VA standard deduction instead of itemizing; (2) granting the phased-out $12,000 age deduction; (3) dropping the $800 aged exemption or treating exemptions as tax credits; (4) shrinking the medical deduction by leaving out the $2,000 over-the-counter expenses or adding the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor; (5) skipping the Social Security subtraction.", + "new": "Virginia taxable income here starts from federal AGI ($106,572.56) minus the $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction, giving VA AGI of $86,743.77. The age deduction is zero because a single filer's AFAGI of about $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold. From there, the engine applies Virginia itemized deductions of $19,419.94, because the filer itemizes federally in the engine: the federal itemized deductions other than SALT, which are $10,913.78 of charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor and a $4,441.86 medical deduction, plus the $4,064.29 real estate tax, with state income tax left out. The medical deduction counts the $10,000 of other medical expenses and a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium that the engine adds because it treats the 69-year-old as enrolled in Medicare, which the prompt does not state; it leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses. Exemptions of $930 personal and $800 age-65 are also taken as deductions from income. That leaves $65,593.83, taxed at $720 plus 5.75% of the amount over $17,000 = $3,514.15. The wrong answers split five ways: (1) using the VA standard deduction instead of itemizing (the engine does the same, for $4,127.67, only when it counts neither the Part B premium nor the $5,367.30 estimate of Virginia income tax withheld that it puts in federal SALT, which the prompt also does not list); (2) granting the phased-out $12,000 age deduction; (3) dropping the $800 aged exemption or treating exemptions as tax credits; (4) building itemized deductions without the Part B premium: $16,985 with the charitable floor (gpt-6-astra, $3,654.16, and gpt-6.1-sol, $3,654.66, within a dollar of the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium) or $17,518 without the floor, and, by counting the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses in its place, $18,985 with the floor or $19,518 without it; (5) skipping the Social Security subtraction." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old explanation called all $33,765.23 of deductions itemized deductions, though $4,872.35 is the QBI deduction and $4,105.65 the senior deduction, and compared that total with the $18,150 standard deduction. It also gave the SALT and medical figures without saying that they rest on the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and a $2,434.80 Part B premium it adds, and called itemizing 'the optimal choice for this household', which holds in the engine only with at least one of those two inputs.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $10,729.61 for this single Virginia resident by applying 2026 tax rates to a taxable income of $72,807.33. The taxable income was derived from an adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, which included employment income of $22,700, partnership/S-corp income of $24,361.77, taxable pension income of $30,000, taxable Social Security of $19,828.80, and other income sources, reduced by $22 in above-the-line deductions. From this AGI, PolicyEngine applied itemized deductions totaling $33,765.23—consisting of $24,787.23 in itemized deductions (charitable contributions of $10,913.78, SALT deductions of $9,431.59, and medical expenses of $4,441.86) plus a qualified business income deduction of $4,872.35 and an additional senior deduction of $4,105.65—which exceeded the standard deduction of $18,150, making itemization beneficial. The resulting tax liability of $10,729.61 was $1,240.19 lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction, confirming that itemizing was the optimal choice for this household.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated federal income tax before refundable credits of $10,729.61 for this single Virginia resident by applying 2026 tax rates to a taxable income of $72,807.33. The taxable income was derived from an adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, which included employment income of $22,700, partnership/S-corp income of $24,361.77, taxable pension income of $30,000, taxable Social Security of $19,828.80, and other income sources, reduced by $22 in above-the-line deductions. From this AGI, PolicyEngine subtracted $33,765.23 of deductions: $24,787.23 of itemized deductions, a qualified business income deduction of $4,872.35 and an additional senior deduction of $4,105.65. The itemized deductions are charitable contributions of $10,913.78 after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor; SALT of $9,431.59, the $4,064.29 of real estate taxes plus $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld (the prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid); and a medical expense deduction of $4,441.86, which counts a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine adds because it treats the filer as enrolled in Medicare, but not the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. They exceed the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 charitable deduction for non-itemizers. The resulting tax liability of $10,729.61 was $1,240.19 lower than the alternative calculation using the standard deduction, so the engine itemizes." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old explanation said the Virginia itemized deductions include state and local taxes. The engine removes state income tax and keeps only the real estate tax; its medical deduction also counts a $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine adds. It also called the $19,828.80 of subtractions 'primarily' taxable Social Security; they equal it exactly.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated Virginia state income tax before refundable credits of $3,514.15 for this single, 69-year-old filer with ~$110,072 household income. The calculation began with adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, from which Virginia-specific subtractions of $19,828.80 (primarily taxable Social Security income) were deducted to arrive at Virginia AGI of $86,743.77. The filer's Virginia taxable income was then determined to be $65,593.83 after applying itemized deductions of $19,419.94 (including charitable contributions, medical expenses, real estate taxes, and state/local taxes) and total exemptions of $1,730 (comprising a $930 personal exemption and an $800 aged/blind exemption, the latter applicable due to the filer's age of 69). Virginia's tax brackets and rates were then applied to this taxable income of $65,593.83 to produce the final tax liability of $3,514.15 before any refundable credits.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated Virginia state income tax before refundable credits of $3,514.15 for this single, 69-year-old filer with ~$110,072 household income. The calculation began with adjusted gross income of $106,572.56, from which Virginia-specific subtractions of $19,828.80 (equal to the taxable Social Security income) were deducted to arrive at Virginia AGI of $86,743.77. The filer's Virginia taxable income was then determined to be $65,593.83 after applying itemized deductions of $19,419.94 (charitable contributions of $10,913.78 after the federal 0.5%-of-AGI floor, a medical expense deduction of $4,441.86 and real estate taxes of $4,064.29; state income tax is not included, and the medical deduction counts a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine adds because it treats the filer as enrolled in Medicare, but not the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses) and total exemptions of $1,730 (comprising a $930 personal exemption and an $800 aged/blind exemption, the latter applicable due to the filer's age of 69). Virginia's tax brackets and rates were then applied to this taxable income of $65,593.83 to produce the final tax liability of $3,514.15 before any refundable credits." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the OTC purchases non-deductible (the engine only leaves them out) and stated the SALT gap without saying that the engine's state income tax is its withholding estimate.", + "old": "It itemized only $19,518. It left state income tax out of SALT ($4,064 instead of $9,431.59), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and counted $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, so taxable income came to $78,077 rather than $72,807.33. It then computed about $11,889 at the correct 2026 brackets but replaced that with $8,971 through an arbitrary 'bracket inflation' adjustment that no rule supports.", + "new": "It itemized only $19,518. It put no state income tax into SALT ($4,064, where the engine's SALT is $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and counted the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, so taxable income came to $78,077 rather than $72,807.33. It then computed about $11,889 at the correct 2026 brackets but replaced that with $8,971 through an arbitrary 'bracket inflation' adjustment that no rule supports." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the OTC purchases non-deductible and called the model's state tax figure (its own Virginia tax) an understatement of the household's state income tax; the engine's $5,367.30 is its withholding estimate.", + "old": "Its structure is right (itemize, $4,106 senior deduction, $4,872 QBI, 2026 brackets), but it put only $3,524 of state income tax into SALT ($7,588 versus $9,431.59). It also built medical from the $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases while leaving out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium ($4,007 versus $4,441.86). Together these understate itemized deductions by about $2,277, so taxable income rises to $75,085 and tax rises by 22% of that gap.", + "new": "Its structure matches the engine's (itemize, $4,106 senior deduction, $4,872 QBI, 2026 brackets), but it put its own $3,524 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,588), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59). It also built medical from the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, while leaving out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,007 versus the engine's $4,441.86). Together these put itemized deductions about $2,277 below the engine's, so taxable income rises to $75,085 and tax rises by about 22% of that gap." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $9,431.59 the SALT 'actually paid'; its state income tax part is the engine's withholding estimate, and the prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid.", + "old": "Its intermediate work entered SALT at the $10,000 cap instead of the $9,431.59 actually paid, dropped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down on MAGI above $75,000 (correct amount $4,105.65), reaching about $10,711. It then submitted $5,489, a figure that matches none of the steps it computed.", + "new": "Its intermediate work entered SALT at the $10,000 cap although it counted only the $4,064 real estate tax (the engine's SALT is $9,431.59, which includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), dropped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and took the full $6,000 senior deduction without the 6% phase-down on MAGI above $75,000 (correct amount $4,105.65), reaching about $10,711. It then submitted $5,489, a figure that matches none of the steps it computed." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the OTC purchases non-deductible and called the model's state tax figure (its own Virginia tax) an understatement of the household's state income tax.", + "old": "It followed the correct structure but put only about $3,555 of state income tax into SALT ($7,618.50 versus $9,431.59). It also computed medical at $4,007 by counting the $2,000 of non-deductible OTC purchases instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium (correct $4,441.86). Itemized deductions came out $2,247.63 short ($22,539.60 vs $24,787.23), and 22% of that gap is exactly its $494.49 overstatement.", + "new": "It followed the engine's structure but put its own $3,554.50 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,618.50), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59). It also computed medical at $4,007 by counting the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, instead of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes (the engine's $4,441.86). Itemized deductions came out $2,247.63 below the engine's ($22,539.60 vs $24,787.23), and 22% of that gap matches the $494.49 by which the model's answer exceeds the engine's $10,729.61." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $9,431.59 the correct SALT and put the model's $19,518 down to SALT and the skipped floor only; that total also needs $4,007 of medical, with the OTC expenses counted and no Part B premium.", + "old": "It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction entirely. It itemized only $19,518, with SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax (no state income tax; correct SALT $9,431.59) and no 0.5% charitable floor, giving $82,183 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33. It also used guessed brackets (10% to $12,150, 12% to $49,400) instead of 2026's $12,400 and $50,400.", + "new": "It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction entirely. It itemized only $19,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax (the engine's SALT is $9,431.59, which includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), no 0.5% charitable floor, and $4,007 of medical that counts the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. That gave $82,183 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33. It also used guessed brackets (10% to $12,150, 12% to $49,400) instead of 2026's $12,400 and $50,400." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30, its withholding estimate) and stated the Part B premium as a household fact.", + "old": "It applied the senior deduction ($4,106), QBI ($4,872), and 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized total of about $21,188 is $3,599 below the correct $24,787.23. The correct components are charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The resulting $76,407 of taxable income, instead of $72,807.33, adds about $792 of tax at 22%.", + "new": "It applied the senior deduction ($4,106), QBI ($4,872), and 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized total of about $21,188 is $3,599 below the engine's $24,787.23. The engine's components are charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.30 that the engine estimates as Virginia income tax withheld), and medical $4,441.86 (including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes). The resulting $76,407 of taxable income, instead of $72,807.33, adds about $792 of tax at 22%." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the model understated state income tax in SALT; the model used its own Virginia tax, and the engine's $5,367.30 is its withholding estimate. 'Ignoring' the premium implied the household lists one.", + "old": "It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It also understated state income tax in SALT ($7,615.53 vs $9,431.59) and held medical to $2,007.04 by ignoring the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium (correct $4,441.86). On top of that it used wrong brackets (10% to $12,200, 12% to $49,400 instead of $12,400 and $50,400), producing $80,630.83 of taxable income.", + "new": "It omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. It also put its own $3,551.53 Virginia tax into SALT ($7,615.53), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59), and held medical to $2,007.04, without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes (the engine's $4,441.86). On top of that it used wrong brackets (10% to $12,200, 12% to $49,400 instead of $12,400 and $50,400), producing $80,630.83 of taxable income." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30) and presented it as the household's state income tax.", + "old": "It applied the TCJA sunset, with a $5,050 personal exemption and the pre-TCJA 'sunset' brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule permanent with no personal exemption. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $19,256 versus the correct $24,787.23; SALT alone is $9,431.59 because it includes $5,367.59 of state income tax.", + "new": "It applied the TCJA sunset, with a $5,050 personal exemption and the pre-TCJA 'sunset' brackets, although OBBBA made the TCJA rate schedule permanent with no personal exemption. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $19,256 versus the engine's $24,787.23; the engine's SALT alone is $9,431.59 because the engine adds a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate to the $4,064.29 real estate tax." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30), presented it and the Part B premium as household facts, and attributed the whole gap to itemized deductions although the model gave no figures.", + "old": "Its $11,540 matches about $76,490 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, $3,684 above the correct $72,807.33. That means its itemized deductions fell about $3,684 short of the correct $24,787.23, which is charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium).", + "new": "Its $11,540 matches about $76,490 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, $3,684 above the engine's $72,807.33. The model's explanation gives no figures; if its other deductions match the engine's, its itemized deductions fell about $3,684 short of the engine's $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), and medical $4,441.86 (including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30, its withholding estimate) and stated the Part B premium as a household fact. The model's itemized total and answer equal the engine's on the reading with no Part B premium and the Virginia liability in SALT.", + "old": "It applied the phased senior deduction ($4,105.63), QBI ($4,872.40), and 2026 brackets correctly but itemized only $20,639.33. With charitable at about $10,914 after the floor, its SALT plus medical comes to roughly $9,725, versus the correct $13,873.45 (SALT $9,431.59 including $5,367.59 of state income tax; medical $4,441.86 including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The $4,148 shortfall taxed at 22% is exactly its $912.59 overstatement.", + "new": "It applied the phased senior deduction ($4,105.63), QBI ($4,872.40), and 2026 brackets correctly but itemized only $20,639.33 after the charitable floor. That matches the engine's $20,639.28 with no Medicare Part B premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT, and the model's $11,642.20 matches the engine's $11,642.16 there. The reference instead counts a $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine imputes (medical $4,441.86) and puts the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT ($9,431.59), for $24,787.23; the $4,147.90 gap taxed at 22% ($912.54) accounts for the $912.59 by which the model's answer exceeds the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30, its withholding estimate), stated the Part B premium as a household fact, and gave an itemized figure ('about $20,640') the model never stated. The model's answer equals the engine's on the reading with no Part B premium and the Virginia liability in SALT.", + "old": "It applied the phased senior deduction, the $4,872.40 QBI deduction, and the 2026 brackets correctly, but its itemized deductions come to about $20,640 against the correct $24,787.23. The correct itemized total is charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including $5,367.59 of state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, with OTC purchases excluded). The $4,147 shortfall taxed at 22% is its $912.48 overstatement.", + "new": "It applied the phased senior deduction, the $4,872.40 QBI deduction, and the 2026 brackets correctly and gave no itemized figure. Its $11,642.09 matches the engine's $11,642.16 with no Medicare Part B premium and with the engine's own Virginia tax on that reading ($3,654.15) in SALT, where itemized deductions are $20,639.28. The reference's itemized total is $24,787.23: charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 (including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate), and medical $4,441.86 ($10,000 of other expenses plus a $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine imputes; the engine does not count OTC purchases). The model's answer exceeds the reference by $912.48, 22% of about $4,148." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the model put 'only' $2,746 of state income tax into SALT; that is the model's own Virginia tax, and the engine's $5,367.30 is its withholding estimate.", + "old": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It also put only $2,746 of state income tax into SALT ($6,810 versus $9,431.59) and skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. Taxable income of $79,437 instead of $72,807.33 drives its higher tax.", + "new": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It also put its own $2,746 Virginia tax into SALT ($6,810), where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59), skipped the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, and built its $4,007 of medical by counting the $2,000 of OTC purchases, which the engine does not count, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. Taxable income of $79,437 instead of $72,807.33 drives its higher tax." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text gave the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 (engine: $5,367.30, its withholding estimate) and stated the Part B premium as a household fact.", + "old": "It estimated itemized deductions at about $19,500 and chose the standard deduction, but itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 including $5,367.59 of state income tax, medical $4,441.86 including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). On its standard path it also omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,445 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33.", + "new": "It estimated itemized deductions at about $19,500 and chose the standard deduction, but in the engine itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78, SALT $9,431.59 including the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 including a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes). On its own standard path the model also omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,445 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the model dropped $10,000 from the $106,572.80 'its own listed income sums to'; the model's explanation lists no income items, only the $96,572.80 AGI and the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security in it.", + "old": "It stated AGI as $96,572.80, dropping $10,000 from the $106,572.80 its own listed income sums to. That also inflated the senior deduction to $4,705.63, when the correct phase-down on $106,572.56 of MAGI gives $4,105.65. It then took the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23.", + "new": "It stated AGI as $96,572.80, about $10,000 below the engine's $106,572.56. That also inflated the senior deduction to $4,705.63, when the correct phase-down on $106,572.56 of MAGI gives $4,105.65. It then took the $18,150 standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction instead of itemizing $24,787.23." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's result 'the correct tax'; it rests on the engine's $5,367.30 withholding estimate and imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It left the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security out of income, invented a $28,300 aged standard deduction, used 2024 brackets, and dropped the QBI and senior deductions. It then added $336 of Medicare payroll tax and an arbitrary $2,000 'safe harbor' adjustment to reach $10,268. Neither payroll tax nor withholding belongs in income tax before refundable credits; the correct tax comes from $72,807.33 of taxable income after itemizing $24,787.23.", + "new": "It left the $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security out of income, invented a $28,300 aged standard deduction, used 2024 brackets, and dropped the QBI and senior deductions. It then added $336 of Medicare payroll tax and an arbitrary $2,000 'safe harbor' adjustment to reach $10,268. Neither payroll tax nor withholding belongs in income tax before refundable credits; the engine's tax comes from $72,807.33 of taxable income after itemizing $24,787.23." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed leaving state income tax out of SALT as a model error without saying that the engine's state income tax is its $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, which the prompt does not list. It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It imputed about $4,500 of mortgage interest from the loan balance although no interest was listed, so mortgage interest is $0. It also left state income tax out of SALT, skipped the charitable floor, and omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It computed $11,802 and then trimmed it to $11,210 with an unexplained 'rounding' adjustment instead of taxing the correct $72,807.33.", + "new": "It imputed about $4,500 of mortgage interest from the loan balance although no interest was listed, so mortgage interest is $0. It also put no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, skipped the charitable floor, and omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. It computed $11,802 and then trimmed it to $11,210 with an unexplained 'rounding' adjustment instead of taxing the engine's $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the missing state income tax and Part B premium the model's undercount and said they made it pick the standard deduction. Both are inputs the engine supplies, and the engine itself takes the standard deduction when it counts neither.", + "old": "It subtracted half of a self-employment tax (~$1,721) that does not exist here: the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax. It also undercounted itemized deductions (no state income tax in SALT; medical limited to $10,000 without the $2,434.80 Part B premium), so it chose the standard deduction with an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. It then cut its own ~$11,900 estimate to $6,900 by citing nonrefundable credits this household does not have.", + "new": "It subtracted half of a self-employment tax (~$1,721) that does not exist here: the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax. It itemized only about $17,650, with no state income tax in SALT and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, and chose the standard deduction with an unphased $6,000 senior deduction. The engine itemizes $24,787.23, counting a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical, neither of which the prompt lists; without both, the engine also takes the standard deduction. The model then cut its own ~$11,900 estimate to $6,900 by citing nonrefundable credits this household does not have." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed leaving state income tax out of SALT as a model error without saying that the engine's state income tax is its $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, which the prompt does not list.", + "old": "It explicitly set aside the OBBBA senior deduction ($4,105.65 after phase-down), imputed $6,693 of mortgage interest from the loan balance even though no interest was listed, left state income tax out of SALT, and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also used inflation-projected 2025 brackets (12% ending near $49,784) instead of the 2026 thresholds of $12,400 and $50,400, ending at $75,490 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33.", + "new": "It explicitly set aside the OBBBA senior deduction ($4,105.65 after phase-down), imputed $6,693 of mortgage interest from the loan balance even though no interest was listed, put no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, and skipped the 0.5% charitable floor. It also used inflation-projected 2025 brackets (12% ending near $49,784) instead of the 2026 thresholds of $12,400 and $50,400, ending at $75,490 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed leaving state income tax out of SALT as a model error without saying that the engine's state income tax is its $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, which the prompt does not list. It also presented the $2,434.80 Part B premium as the household's; the engine imputes it. It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721) from AGI, although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $17,645 (no state income tax in SALT, no 0.5% charitable floor, medical without the $2,434.80 Part B premium). Its taxable income of $82,357 is about $9,550 above the correct $72,807.33.", + "new": "It subtracted half of a nonexistent self-employment tax ($1,721) from AGI, although the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here. It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction and itemized only $17,645: no state income tax in SALT, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate; no 0.5% charitable floor; and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The model's taxable income of $82,357 is about $9,550 above the engine's $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "Its $79,372.69 of taxable income implies itemized deductions of about $22,328 plus QBI, with no senior deduction. It therefore omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers receive, and understated itemized deductions by about $2,460 against the correct $24,787.23. The resulting $6,565 excess over the correct $72,807.33 of taxable income drives its higher tax.", + "new": "Its $79,372.69 of taxable income implies itemized deductions of about $22,328 plus QBI, with no senior deduction. It therefore omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers receive, and itemized about $2,460 less than the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The resulting $6,565 excess over the engine's $72,807.33 of taxable income drives the model's higher tax." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called $24,787.23 'correct' and said the model understated itemized deductions, which its explanation gives no figure to check; it now says what the model's list leaves out and what the engine counts.", + "old": "Its $110,094 of gross income counts 100% of the $23,328 of Social Security instead of the 85% maximum ($19,828.80) and ignores the $22 capital loss. Its roughly $81,300 of taxable income omits the $4,105.65 senior deduction and understates itemized deductions (correct $24,787.23). Its $13,919 also exceeds the 2026-bracket tax on $81,300 (about $12,598), so it applied the wrong rate schedule as well.", + "new": "Its $110,094 of gross income counts 100% of the $23,328 of Social Security instead of the 85% maximum ($19,828.80) and ignores the $22 capital loss. Its roughly $81,300 of taxable income omits the $4,105.65 senior deduction, and the itemized deductions it lists (real estate taxes, charitable donations, medical expenses) include no state income tax; the engine itemizes $24,787.23, with a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical. The model's $13,919 also exceeds the 2026-bracket tax on $81,300 (about $12,598), so it applied the wrong rate schedule as well." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's estimate-based result 'the correct answer'.", + "old": "It computed tax under 'pre-TCJA' 2026 law with personal exemptions, but OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero personal exemption permanent. Its derivation also includes neither the $4,872.35 QBI deduction nor the $4,105.65 senior deduction. The correct answer is the 10%/12%/22% tax on $72,807.33.", + "new": "It computed tax under 'pre-TCJA' 2026 law with personal exemptions, but OBBBA made the TCJA brackets and the zero personal exemption permanent. Its derivation also includes neither the $4,872.35 QBI deduction nor the $4,105.65 senior deduction. The engine taxes $72,807.33 at 10%/12%/22%, for $10,729.61." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's estimate-based computation 'the correct computation'.", + "old": "It gave no derivation. The correct computation is $106,572.56 AGI less $24,787.23 itemized, $4,872.35 QBI and $4,105.65 senior deductions, which leaves $72,807.33 taxed at $10,729.61. Its $9,334 matches about $66,460 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, so it overstated total deductions by roughly $6,350.", + "new": "It gave no derivation. The engine's computation is $106,572.56 AGI less $24,787.23 itemized, $4,872.35 QBI and $4,105.65 senior deductions, which leaves $72,807.33 taxed at $10,729.61. The model's $9,334 matches about $66,460 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets, so it overstated total deductions by roughly $6,350." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 reduced by 6% of MAGI over $75,000, to $4,105.65), which itemizers also claim. Its itemized total of $22,018.04 also falls $2,769 short of the correct $24,787.23. Together these leave taxable income at $79,682.36, $6,875 above the correct $72,807.33.", + "new": "It omitted the OBBBA senior deduction ($6,000 reduced by 6% of MAGI over $75,000, to $4,105.65), which itemizers also claim. Its itemized total of $22,018.04 also falls $2,769 short of the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Together these leave the model's taxable income at $79,682.36, $6,875 above the engine's $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text stated the engine's estimate-based itemized total as the household's and called $72,807.33 'correct'; it also said the answer matches the tax on about $83,550, which is $11.04 off.", + "old": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction instead of itemizing, although itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59, medical $4,441.86). It also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its $13,104.09 matches the tax on about $83,550 of taxable income (AGI less $18,150 and QBI only), $10,743 above the correct $72,807.33.", + "new": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction instead of itemizing as the engine does: the engine's itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 with an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). The model also omitted the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its $13,104.09 is about $11 above the $13,093.05 tax on $83,550.21 of taxable income (AGI less $18,150 and QBI only), which is $10,742.88 above the engine's $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed leaving state income tax out of SALT as a model error without saying that the engine's state income tax is its $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, which the prompt does not list. It also presented the $2,434.80 Part B premium as the household's; the engine imputes it.", + "old": "It omitted both the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax instead of $9,431.59, no 0.5% charitable floor, and $2,007 of medical that leaves out the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That puts taxable income near $89,055 instead of $72,807.33.", + "new": "It omitted both the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518: SALT limited to the $4,064 real estate tax, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate ($9,431.59 in all); no 0.5% charitable floor; and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That puts taxable income near $89,055 instead of $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed leaving state income tax out of SALT as a model error without saying that the engine's state income tax is its $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, which the prompt does not list. It also presented the $2,434.80 Part B premium as the household's; the engine imputes it. It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518 by excluding state income tax from SALT ($4,064 vs $9,431.59), skipping the 0.5% charitable floor, and limiting medical to $2,007 without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Its $84,183 of taxable income is $11,376 above the correct $72,807.33.", + "new": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction. It also itemized only $17,518, with no state income tax in SALT ($4,064, where the engine counts a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate for $9,431.59), no 0.5% charitable floor, and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, where the engine also counts an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. The model's $84,183 of taxable income is $11,376 above the engine's $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text listed 'no state income tax in SALT, no Part B premium in medical' as model errors, presenting the engine's withholding estimate and imputed premium as the household's, and stated a breakdown of $17,518 that the model's federal explanation does not give.", + "old": "It applied the TCJA sunset, with a personal exemption and the pre-2018 brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions stay at zero in 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its itemized total was only $17,518 (no state income tax in SALT, no Part B premium in medical, no 0.5% charitable floor).", + "new": "It applied the TCJA sunset, with a personal exemption and the pre-2018 brackets, even though OBBBA made the TCJA brackets permanent and personal exemptions stay at zero in 2026. It also omitted the $4,872.35 QBI deduction and the $4,105.65 senior deduction. Its itemized total was only about $17,518, which matches no state income tax in SALT, no 0.5% charitable floor and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone; the engine's $24,787.23 adds a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate to SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium to medical." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $72,807.33 'correct' and called the standard path 'the smaller deduction path' without saying that is the engine's comparison.", + "old": "It deducted half of a self-employment tax that does not exist, since the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here, and it took the standard-deduction path instead of itemizing $24,787.23. Its $67,020 of taxable income is $5,787 below the correct $72,807.33, so its total deductions were overstated even though it chose the smaller deduction path.", + "new": "It deducted half of a self-employment tax that does not exist, since the partnership/S-corp income carries no SE tax here, and it took the standard-deduction path instead of itemizing $24,787.23 as the engine does. Its $67,020 of taxable income is $5,787 below the engine's $72,807.33, so its total deductions exceeded the engine's even though it chose the path with smaller deductions in the engine." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text presented the engine's SALT state income tax and the Part B premium as the household's and treated itemizing as the right answer. The model's result is the engine's own when neither unlisted input is counted (the rewritten case note says so).", + "old": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, which reproduces the standard-deduction alternative of $11,969.80. Itemized deductions of $24,787.23 exceed that $19,150: charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 (real estate plus state income tax), and medical $4,441.86 (including the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). Itemizing cuts tax by $1,240.19.", + "new": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, with the senior and QBI deductions, for about $78,445 of taxable income, which reproduces the engine's standard-deduction result: $11,969.80 on $78,444.56. The engine gives that answer when it counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses. With both, the engine itemizes $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59, medical $4,441.86), which exceeds the $19,150 and cuts tax by $1,240.19 to $10,729.61." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "It called estimate-based engine figures 'correct'; they rest on the $5,367.30 withholding estimate and the imputed $2,434.80 premium.", + "old": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. Its implied itemized deductions of about $21,026 also fall $3,761 short of the correct $24,787.23. Taxable income of $80,675 instead of $72,807.33 produces its $1,731 overstatement at 22%.", + "new": "It omitted the $4,105.65 OBBBA senior deduction, which itemizers also receive. Its implied itemized deductions of about $21,026 also fall $3,761 short of the engine's $24,787.23, whose SALT includes the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate and whose medical deduction includes an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. Taxable income of $80,675 instead of $72,807.33 produces the model's $1,731 excess over the engine's tax at 22%." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's estimate-based computation and its $33,765.23 of deductions 'correct'.", + "old": "It gave no derivation. The correct computation reaches $72,807.33 of taxable income and $10,729.61 of tax, while its $10,234 matches about $70,555 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets. It therefore claimed roughly $2,250 more deductions than the correct $33,765.23 (itemized $24,787.23, QBI $4,872.35, senior $4,105.65).", + "new": "It gave no derivation. The engine's computation reaches $72,807.33 of taxable income and $10,729.61 of tax, while the model's $10,234 matches about $70,555 of taxable income at the 2026 brackets. The model therefore claimed roughly $2,250 more deductions than the engine's $33,765.23 (itemized $24,787.23, QBI $4,872.35, senior $4,105.65)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text presented the SALT state income tax and the Medicare Part B premium as the household's; they are the engine's withholding estimate and an imputed premium.", + "old": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction on the belief that it beats itemizing, but itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 including state income tax, medical $4,441.86 including the Medicare Part B premium). Even on the standard path it omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,444.77 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33.", + "new": "It took the $18,150 aged standard deduction on the belief that it beats itemizing, but in the engine itemized deductions total $24,787.23 (charitable $10,913.78 after the 0.5% floor, SALT $9,431.59 with the engine's $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate, medical $4,441.86 with an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium). Even on the standard path the model omitted the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, leaving $79,444.77 of taxable income instead of $72,807.33." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text presented the engine's SALT state income tax and the Part B premium as the household's, called $24,787.23 'correct' and blamed the standard-deduction choice on those omissions. The model's answer is the engine's own when neither unlisted input is counted (the rewritten case note says so).", + "old": "It computed itemized deductions of only $17,518 by excluding state income tax from SALT ($4,064 instead of $9,431.59), skipping the 0.5% charitable floor, and limiting medical to $2,007 without the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium. That led it to choose the standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. That path yields $11,969.80, which is $1,240.19 more than itemizing the correct $24,787.23.", + "new": "It compared itemized deductions of $17,518 with the $18,150 standard deduction and took the standard deduction plus the $1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction, with the phased senior and QBI deductions. The $17,518 matches the $4,064 real estate tax with no state income tax in SALT, charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The model's $11,969.85 matches the engine's $11,969.80 when the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses. With both, the engine itemizes $24,787.23 and gets $10,729.61, $1,240.19 less." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out. The gap is the Part B premium the engine counts, less the charitable floor the model skipped.", + "old": "It put itemized deductions at $17,518 by counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94. It also took only the $930 exemption without the $800 age-65 exemption, so taxable income came out at $68,296 instead of $65,593.83.", + "new": "Its itemized deductions of about $17,518 match charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor ($11,446.65), the $4,064.29 real estate tax and $2,007.06 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor ($10,913.78) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model also took only the $930 exemption without the $800 age-65 exemption, so its taxable income came out at $68,296 instead of $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out.", + "old": "It computed the medical deduction on the $10,000 of other medical expenses only and left out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. That gave $17,518.04 of itemized deductions instead of $19,419.94. Taxable income came out at $67,495.96 instead of $65,593.83, so the tax is $109 too high.", + "new": "Its $17,518.04 of itemized deductions matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor ($10,913.78 rather than $11,446.65) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86 rather than $2,007.06); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's taxable income came out at $67,495.96 instead of $65,593.83, so its tax is $109 above the engine's." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out, and presented the inferred itemized total as the model's.", + "old": "Its $3,623.52 matches itemized deductions of $17,518.04, where the medical deduction counts only the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income is $1,902 too high.", + "new": "Its explanation gives no figures, but its $3,623.52 matches $17,518 of itemized deductions with the $1,730 of exemptions: charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 applies the floor and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes; both totals leave out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's implied taxable income is $1,902 above the engine's $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out.", + "old": "It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, with the medical deduction built from the $10,000 of other medical expenses only and the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses left out. Against the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, that makes taxable income $67,496 instead of $65,593.83.", + "new": "It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, which its federal explanation breaks into $11,447 of charitable gifts with no 0.5%-of-AGI floor, $4,064 of real estate taxes and $2,007 of medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses. The engine's $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction applies the floor ($10,913.78) and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,441.86); like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. That makes the model's taxable income $67,496 instead of $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out.", + "old": "It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, computing the medical deduction from the $10,000 of other medical expenses and leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 too high.", + "new": "It used $17,518 of itemized deductions, which matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. The engine's $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction applies the floor and adds to medical a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes; like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. So the model's taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the engine's." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine also leaves out.", + "old": "It used $17,518 of Virginia itemized deductions, with the medical deduction built from the $10,000 of other medical expenses and the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses left out, instead of $19,419.94. Its taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the correct $65,593.83.", + "new": "It used $17,518 of Virginia itemized deductions, which matches charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone, instead of the engine's $19,419.94. The engine applies the floor and adds to medical an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium; like the model, the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The model's taxable income of $67,496 is $1,902 above the engine's $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for applying the charitable floor and for counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses; the engine does both. The only gap is the Part B premium, and the answer matches the engine's value without it.", + "old": "It put itemized deductions at $16,985.18 by applying a 0.5%-of-AGI floor to charitable gifts and counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses. The Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so its taxable income of $68,028.82 is $2,435 too high.", + "new": "Its $16,985.18 of itemized deductions matches the engine's $16,985.14 without the Medicare Part B premium: charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, as in the engine, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. With the $2,434.80 premium the engine imputes, the engine's Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income of $68,028.82 is $2,435 above the engine's, and the model's $3,654.16 matches the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text blamed the model for applying the charitable floor and for counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses; the engine does both. The only gap is the Part B premium.", + "old": "It used $16,985.18 of itemized deductions, applying a 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor and counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses, instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction. Its taxable income is $68,028.82 instead of $65,593.83, and it adds another $0.50 arithmetic slip on top.", + "new": "Its $16,985.18 of itemized deductions matches the engine's $16,985.14 without the Medicare Part B premium: charitable gifts after the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, as in the engine, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone. With the $2,434.80 premium the engine imputes, the engine's Virginia itemized deduction is $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income is $68,028.82 instead of $65,593.83. Virginia's rates on $68,028.82 give $3,654.16, within a cent of the engine's $3,654.15 without the premium; the model's $3,654.66 adds a $0.50 arithmetic slip." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text put the $435 gap down to the charitable floor, which the engine also applies. The gap is the Part B premium the engine counts less the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses the model counted in its place.", + "old": "It phased out the age deduction from the $75,000 married-joint threshold and kept $256. For a single filer the threshold is $50,000, and AFAGI of $86,744 wipes the $12,000 deduction out entirely. It also put itemized deductions at $18,985 by applying a 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, $435 below the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deduction, so its taxable income of $65,773 ends up $179 too high.", + "new": "It phased out the age deduction from the $75,000 married-joint threshold and kept $256. For a single filer the threshold is $50,000, and AFAGI of $86,744 wipes the $12,000 deduction out entirely. Its $18,985 of itemized deductions applies the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor, as the engine does, but its federal explanation builds medical from $12,000, counting the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, which the engine leaves out, in place of the $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes ($4,007 against $4,441.86). That leaves it $435 below the engine's $19,419.94, so the model's taxable income of $65,773 ends up $179 above the engine's." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the medical deduction is the $12,000 of medical costs above the 7.5%-of-AGI floor. The engine's base is $12,434.80 ($10,000 plus the $2,434.80 Part B premium, without the over-the-counter expenses) and the deduction is $4,441.86.", + "old": "Its $15,511 of itemized deductions covers only charitable gifts and real estate taxes and leaves out the medical expense deduction. That deduction is the $12,000 of medical costs above the 7.5%-of-AGI floor and is part of the $19,419.94 total. It also used a $1,600 exemption instead of Virginia's $930 personal plus $800 age-65 exemptions ($1,730).", + "new": "Its $15,511 of itemized deductions is charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor plus real estate taxes; it leaves out the medical expense deduction. In the engine that deduction is $4,441.86: the $10,000 of other medical expenses plus a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, less 7.5% of federal AGI ($7,992.94); the engine leaves out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses and applies the charitable floor, for $19,419.94 in all. The model also used a $1,600 exemption instead of Virginia's $930 personal plus $800 age-65 exemptions ($1,730)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the answer matches deducting all $12,000 of medical expenses without the 7.5%-of-AGI floor and put the engine's medical deduction at about $4,000. That reconstruction does not reproduce $57,229; the model's own $10,000 AGI understatement carried into Virginia does, and the engine's medical deduction is $4,441.86.", + "old": "Its taxable income of about $57,229 means roughly $29,500 was deducted from VA AGI instead of $21,149.94. That matches deducting all $12,000 of medical expenses without the 7.5%-of-AGI floor, which limits the medical deduction to about $4,000 of the $19,419.94 itemized total.", + "new": "Its about $57,229 of taxable income matches carrying into Virginia its own federal AGI of $96,572.80, which its federal answer states, about $10,000 below the engine's $106,572.56: Virginia AGI of $76,744, less about $17,785 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, is about $57,229. Those itemized deductions are charitable gifts after a 0.5% floor on its AGI (about $10,964), the $4,064 real estate tax and about $2,757 of medical, the $10,000 of other medical expenses above 7.5% of its AGI. The engine deducts $19,419.94 of itemized deductions from Virginia AGI of $86,743.77, with a $4,441.86 medical deduction that adds a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes. Virginia's rates on $57,229 give about $3,033, $10 below the model's submitted $3,043.16." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text attributed a $4,180 standard-deduction figure to this model, which never gave one ($4,180 is gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview's answer), and presented the inferred $17,518 as matching its answer exactly; it gives $3,722.98. It is offered as one reconstruction, not the only one.", + "old": "Its $4,180 would be the standard-deduction path; its actual $3,726 implies taxable income of about $69,280, meaning only about $17,470 was deducted from VA AGI of $86,744 instead of $21,149.94. That shortfall matches a $17,518 itemized total (counting only the $10,000 of other medical expenses) with the $1,730 in exemptions left out.", + "new": "Its explanation gives no figures. Its $3,726 implies taxable income of about $69,278, so about $17,466 came off Virginia AGI of $86,743.77, where the engine takes off $21,149.94: $19,419.94 of itemized deductions, whose $4,441.86 medical deduction adds a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium the engine imputes, and $1,730 of exemptions. One reconstruction close to its answer is $17,518 of itemized deductions (charitable gifts without the 0.5%-of-AGI floor, the real estate tax and medical from the $10,000 of other medical expenses alone) with no exemptions, which gives $3,722.98, about $3 below its answer." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $19,419.94 of itemized deductions part of 'the correct base'; that figure includes the imputed $2,434.80 Part B premium.", + "old": "It shrank $86,744 of non-Social Security income to an 'AGI' of $27,752 and applied a $28,000 federal-style standard deduction. It then claimed zero tax, even though Virginia's 2% bracket starts at the first dollar. The correct base is VA AGI of $86,743.77, minus $19,419.94 itemized deductions and $1,730 exemptions, which leaves $65,593.83 taxable.", + "new": "It shrank $86,744 of non-Social Security income to an 'AGI' of $27,752 and applied a $28,000 federal-style standard deduction. It then claimed zero tax, even though Virginia's 2% bracket starts at the first dollar. Its base should be VA AGI of $86,743.77; the engine then subtracts $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, which leaves $65,593.83 taxable." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text stated 'the filer itemizes federally' as a household fact; in the engine that holds only with the withholding estimate or the imputed premium.", + "old": "Its reasoning got $4,227, but it submitted $1,854, which nothing in its derivation supports. Even the $4,227 path is wrong: it used an $8,750 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions (the filer itemizes federally), and it left out the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions.", + "new": "Its reasoning got $4,227, but it submitted $1,854, which nothing in its derivation supports. Even the $4,227 path is wrong: it used an $8,750 standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions (in the engine the filer itemizes federally), and it left out the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $21,149.94 'the correct figure'; it includes the imputed $2,434.80 Part B premium.", + "old": "It computed tax with the $8,500 standard deduction and only the $930 exemption, then vaguely 'adjusted for itemizing' to $4,014. That figure implies taxable income of about $74,300, meaning total deductions of only about $12,450. The correct figure is $21,149.94 of deductions ($19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions); it never computed the itemized total and dropped the $800 aged exemption.", + "new": "It computed tax with the $8,500 standard deduction and only the $930 exemption, then vaguely 'adjusted for itemizing' to $4,014. That figure implies taxable income of about $74,300, meaning total deductions of only about $12,450. The engine deducts $21,149.94 ($19,419.94 itemized plus $1,730 exemptions); the model never computed the itemized total and dropped the $800 aged exemption." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the filer 'qualifies for' the $19,419.94 'as a federal itemizer'; in the engine the filer itemizes only with the withholding estimate or the imputed premium, and the figure includes the premium.", + "old": "It used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 Virginia itemized deductions the filer qualifies for as a federal itemizer. It then subtracted the $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions dollar-for-dollar from tax as credits. They actually reduce taxable income, where they are worth only about $99 at the 5.75% rate.", + "new": "It used a $9,000 standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions (in the engine the filer itemizes federally). It then subtracted the $930 personal and $800 aged exemptions dollar-for-dollar from tax as credits. They actually reduce taxable income, where they are worth only about $99 at the 5.75% rate." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $65,593.83 'the correct figure'.", + "old": "It subtracted the full $12,000 age deduction, but single-filer AFAGI of $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold, so the deduction is zero. It also used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $1,730 in exemptions. Its $66,244 taxable income is close to the correct figure only because these errors offset.", + "new": "It subtracted the full $12,000 age deduction, but single-filer AFAGI of $86,744 is more than $12,000 over the $50,000 threshold, so the deduction is zero. It also used the $8,500 standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and left out the $1,730 in exemptions. Its $66,244 taxable income is close to the engine's $65,593.83 only because these errors offset." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $19,419.94 'allowed'; it includes the imputed $2,434.80 Part B premium.", + "old": "Every step matches the correct derivation (Social Security subtraction, zero age deduction, $1,730 exemptions, brackets) except the itemized total. It used $19,518.04 of Virginia itemized deductions, $98.10 more than the $19,419.94 allowed, which lowers taxable income to $65,495.96 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by $5.63.", + "new": "Every step matches the correct derivation (Social Security subtraction, zero age deduction, $1,730 exemptions, brackets) except the itemized total. It used $19,518.04 of Virginia itemized deductions, $98.10 more than the engine's $19,419.94, which lowers taxable income to $65,495.96 instead of $65,593.83 and tax by $5.63." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $19,419.94 'allowed'.", + "old": "It overstated itemized deductions at $23,948.60, which is $4,528.66 more than the $19,419.94 allowed. It took only the $800 aged exemption and dropped the $930 personal exemption. Its stated taxable income of $60,294.40 does not even match its own inputs ($86,744 − $23,948.60 − $800 = $61,995.40).", + "new": "It overstated itemized deductions at $23,948.60, which is $4,528.66 more than the engine's $19,419.94. It took only the $800 aged exemption and dropped the $930 personal exemption. Its stated taxable income of $60,294.40 does not even match its own inputs ($86,744 − $23,948.60 − $800 = $61,995.40)." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's deductions 'the correct deductions'; the $19,419.94 includes the imputed $2,434.80 Part B premium.", + "old": "Its $4,180 implies taxable income of about $77,170. That matches VA AGI of $86,744 minus a roughly $8,500–8,750 standard deduction and a single $930 exemption. The correct deductions are $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions plus $1,730 of personal and age exemptions, which leave $65,593.83.", + "new": "Its $4,180 implies taxable income of about $77,170. That matches VA AGI of $86,744 minus a roughly $8,500–8,750 standard deduction and a single $930 exemption. The engine deducts $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions plus $1,730 of personal and age exemptions, which leave $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's steps, including its $19,419.94 of itemized deductions, 'the correct steps'.", + "old": "Its $5,617 implies taxable income of about $102,200. That is federal AGI of $106,573 with no $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction and only about a $4,400 deduction. The correct steps are to subtract Social Security, then $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, leaving $65,593.83.", + "new": "Its $5,617 implies taxable income of about $102,200. That is federal AGI of $106,573 with no $19,828.80 Social Security subtraction and only about a $4,400 deduction. The engine subtracts the Social Security, then $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions, leaving $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said the path 'wrongly' uses the standard deduction instead of $19,419.94; that comparison rests on the engine's federal itemizing.", + "old": "Its described path ($106,573 − $19,829 − $9,000 standard deduction − $930) gives about $76,800 of taxable income and about $4,200 of tax. It instead submitted $14,036.62, which implies roughly $248,000 of taxable income, far more than the household's total income. The path itself also wrongly uses the standard deduction instead of $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and invents a pension deduction.", + "new": "Its described path ($106,573 − $19,829 − $9,000 standard deduction − $930) gives about $76,800 of taxable income and about $4,200 of tax. It instead submitted $14,036.62, which implies roughly $248,000 of taxable income, far more than the household's total income. The path itself also uses the standard deduction instead of the engine's $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and invents a pension deduction." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said 'The filer itemizes federally, so Virginia allows $19,419.94'. In the engine the filer itemizes only with the withholding estimate or the imputed premium; without both, which is the reading the model's federal answer matches, the engine takes the Virginia standard deduction too, and the model's only remaining gap is the $800 exemption.", + "old": "It used an $8,750 standard deduction and only the $930 personal exemption. The filer itemizes federally, so Virginia allows $19,419.94 of itemized deductions plus both the $930 personal and $800 age-65 exemptions. Its taxable income of $77,064 is $11,470 too high.", + "new": "It used an $8,750 standard deduction and only the $930 personal exemption, leaving out the $800 age-65 exemption. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction (the result the model's federal answer matches) and the $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income and $4,127.67 of tax; the model's $77,064 is $800 higher there. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions leave $65,593.83, $11,470 below the model's." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called $65,593.83 'correct' and $19,419.94 'allowed', and stated as fact that the model subtracted Social Security and took $1,730 of exemptions, figures its explanation does not give. The gap is 65,593.83 - 63,556.52 = 2,037.31, not about $2,035.", + "old": "Its $3,397 implies taxable income of about $63,560. That is about $2,035 below the correct $65,593.83, which means it overstated itemized deductions beyond the $19,419.94 allowed, while correctly subtracting Social Security and taking the $1,730 of exemptions.", + "new": "Its $3,397 implies taxable income of about $63,560. That is about $2,037 below the engine's $65,593.83. The model's explanation describes the Social Security subtraction and the age and personal exemptions, so the gap points to itemized deductions above the engine's $19,419.94." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said $11,447 of charitable gifts, $4,064 of real estate taxes and the medical deduction make the filer a federal itemizer. Without state income tax in SALT that holds only with the imputed $2,434.80 premium (the same items total $16,985.14 without it, below the $19,150 standard path), and without both unlisted inputs the engine takes the standard deduction.", + "old": "It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and so used Virginia's $8,500 standard deduction. In fact, $11,447 of charitable gifts, $4,064 of real estate taxes and the medical deduction make the filer a federal itemizer, so Virginia allows $19,419.94 of itemized deductions. Its taxable income of $76,514 is $10,920 too high.", + "new": "It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and so used an $8,500 Virginia standard deduction, with the $1,730 of exemptions, for $76,514 of taxable income. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction and the $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income, $250 below the model's. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions leave $65,593.83, $10,920 below the model's." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's $65,593.83 'correct'.", + "old": "Its own inputs ($86,744 − $19,647 itemized − $930) give $66,167, yet it taxed $64,446, which is $1,148 below the correct $65,593.83. It also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions compared with $19,419.94.", + "new": "Its own inputs ($86,744 − $19,647 itemized − $930) give $66,167, yet it taxed $64,446, which is $1,148 below the engine's $65,593.83. It also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions compared with the engine's $19,419.94." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the $19,419.94 'available to a federal itemizer' as a household fact. In the engine the filer itemizes only with the withholding estimate or the imputed premium; without both, which is the reading the model's federal answer matches, the engine takes the Virginia standard deduction too.", + "old": "It assumed the filer took the federal standard deduction and used Virginia's $8,500 standard deduction instead of the $19,419.94 of itemized deductions available to a federal itemizer. It also counted a $930 age-65 exemption instead of $800, which put taxable income at $76,384 instead of $65,593.83.", + "new": "It took an $8,500 Virginia standard deduction, to match its federal standard deduction, and counted a $930 age-65 exemption instead of $800, which put taxable income at $76,384. When the engine counts neither of two inputs the prompt does not list, a $5,367.30 Virginia withholding estimate in federal SALT and an imputed $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium, it also takes the federal standard deduction (the result the model's federal answer matches) and an $8,750 Virginia standard deduction, for $76,263.77 of taxable income and $4,127.67 of tax, $120.23 and $6.91 below the model's. With both inputs the filer itemizes federally in the engine, and the engine's $19,419.94 of Virginia itemized deductions leave $65,593.83." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text said only the engine's $19,419.94 and $1,730 'apply', presenting the estimate-based figure as what the household is allowed.", + "old": "It treated the filer as a low-income retiree with about zero tax, but VA AGI after the Social Security subtraction is $86,743.77. Only $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions apply, leaving $65,593.83 taxable.", + "new": "It treated the filer as a low-income retiree with about zero tax, but VA AGI after the Social Security subtraction is $86,743.77. In the engine only $19,419.94 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of exemptions apply, leaving $65,593.83 taxable." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "s114", + "reason": "The old text called the engine's figures the fix ('Fixing those gives ...').", + "old": "Its own path got taxable income of $66,296 and tax of about $3,555, but it then submitted $2,597, an unexplained cut of about $958 with no rule behind it. That path also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and overstated itemized deductions at $19,518 instead of $19,419.94. Fixing those gives taxable income of $65,593.83 and tax of $3,514.15.", + "new": "Its own path got taxable income of $66,296 and tax of about $3,555, but it then submitted $2,597, an unexplained cut of about $958 with no rule behind it. That path also left out the $800 age-65 exemption and put itemized deductions at $19,518 instead of the engine's $19,419.94; with the engine's figures, taxable income is $65,593.83 and tax $3,514.15." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text called the reference's state part Minnesota's 'Paid Leave employee contribution' with no mention that the employer may pay it, and framed every federal-only answer as an error. Old text: 'The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35%' is wrong: seven models included it in their explanations and six match the reference (README, 'What a release adopting either option must also do', Exclude item 5). Old text: 'many said outright that Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax or that the paid-leave deduction is optional': only one (grok-4.7) said optional.", + "old": "The reference adds three pieces: federal FICA on the head's $29,000 in wages ($1,798 Social Security plus $420.50 Medicare), and Minnesota's Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000 in MN paid-leave taxable wages). Minnesota Paid Leave premiums began in 2026. Almost every model stopped at 7.65% federal FICA ($2,218.50), and many said outright that Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax or that the paid-leave deduction is optional. The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35% instead of the 0.44% employee share. The few remaining errors come from made-up rates, doubling toward the employer-plus-employee total, or missing output.", + "new": "The reference adds three pieces: federal Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) on the head's $29,000 in wages, and $127.60 of Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000). Minnesota Paid Leave premiums began in 2026 and are owed by the employer, which may deduct up to 0.44% of wages from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50. Six models matched the reference, all adding $127.60. Thirty-three answered federal tax alone ($2,218.50, or $2,219 rounded): sixteen said no Minnesota employee payroll tax applies or none is mandatory, sixteen did not mention one, and one said paid-leave withholding is optional. One added the paid-leave premium at 0.35% ($2,320), and another recorded $2,320 against an explanation that totals $2,218.50. Of the rest, one submitted about double FICA ($4,428.60), one used an invented 5.24% rate ($1,520), one cut its own FICA total to $2,175.90 without a reason, and two returned no value." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text: 'Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees half of a 0.88% premium' presents the largest deductible share as a charge on the employee; the employer remits the premium and may pay that share. Old text gives FICA as $312.75 and then $312.73; the engine's is $312.74 (253.465 + 59.278 on $4,088.15), and $312.73 is 7.65% of the prompt's rounded $4,088 (README Exclude item 5). The new text gives the federal part as one total, because the parts rounded to the cent ($253.47 + $59.28) print as $312.75. Old text: 'either said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or dropped FAMLI on purpose' omits the eleven that never mention it, and calls those answers mistakes.", + "old": "The requested output covers mandatory employee state payroll taxes. Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees half of a 0.88% premium in 2026, or 0.44% of wages, which adds $17.99 on $4,088.15 of wages to the $312.75 of FICA. Almost every model stopped at 7.65% FICA ($312.73) and either said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or dropped FAMLI on purpose. The outliers made other mistakes: one subtracted ESI premiums from the FICA base, one used a 0.6% FAMLI rate, one submitted a value that did not match its own arithmetic, and one returned zero with no calculation.", + "new": "The reference is $330.73: employee Social Security and Medicare, 7.65% of the head's $4,088.15 of wages, or $312.74, plus $17.99 of Colorado FAMLI (0.44% of wages). The prompt lists the wages as $4,088, on which 7.65% is $312.73. Colorado's FAMLI premium is 0.88% of wages in 2026; the employer remits it and may deduct up to half, 0.44%, from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $312.74. Sixteen models matched the reference within $1: seven at 0.44% ($330.72) and nine at the 2025 rate of 0.45% ($331.13). Twenty-six answered federal tax alone (about $312.73): fourteen said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or none is mandatory, eleven did not mention FAMLI, and one computed FAMLI and then left it out as like unemployment insurance. Of the other four, one reached $331.14 with FAMLI at 0.45% but submitted $315.14, one priced FAMLI at $24.53 (0.6% of wages), one subtracted the $8,389 of employer-sponsored insurance premiums from wages and returned $0, and one returned $0 with no calculation." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text calls the PFML share 'the mandatory Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution'; the employer remits it and may deduct less or none. Old text frames leaving PFML out or treating it as employer-only as the error, and its list of wrong rates omits 0.24% and 0.38%.", + "old": "The reference has three parts: employee Social Security of 6.2% x $175,002 = $10,850.12 (the wages are below the 2026 wage base), employee Medicare of 1.45% x $175,002 = $2,537.53 with no Additional Medicare Tax, and the mandatory Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. Most wrong models stopped at SS plus Medicare ($13,387.65) because they left out MA PFML or treated it as employer-only. Others included PFML at a wrong employee rate (0.256%, 0.318%, 0.375%, 0.44%, 0.532%, 0.55% or 0.604%). A third group shrank the FICA base to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums, but the payroll tax base here is the full $175,002.", + "new": "The reference has three parts: employee Social Security of 6.2% × $175,002 = $10,850.12 (the wages are below the 2026 wage base), employee Medicare of 1.45% × $175,002 = $2,537.53 with no Additional Medicare Tax, and $805.01 of Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML), 0.46% × $175,002. The employer remits PFML contributions and, under the Department of Family and Medical Leave's published 2026 rates, may deduct up to 0.46% of wages from the employee (all of the 0.18% family rate and 40% of the 0.70% medical rate) or deduct less or none. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65. Nine models matched the reference. Of the other 37, nine answered federal tax alone, saying Massachusetts has no employee payroll tax or none is mandatory, assuming PFML is not modeled, leaving it out without a reason, or not mentioning it. Thirteen more left PFML out and made another error, most often a total that does not match the model's own figures; others used an outdated Social Security wage base, a 2.9% Medicare rate, Additional Medicare Tax on wages under $200,000, or a FICA base cut to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 of employer-sponsored insurance premiums, which the engine does not subtract. Thirteen included PFML at other amounts, at stated rates from 0.24% to 0.604% or as estimates without a rate, two of them on the $167,613 base. One returned $0 with no reasoning, and one returned no value." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text: 'The requested payroll_tax output includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In New York those are Paid Family Leave (PFL) and disability benefits (DBL) contributions' calls the optional contributions mandatory. Old text cites 'the statewide average weekly wage base of $95,350.72'; the audit's law research finds no source for it (2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76) and 0.432% of it is $411.92, not $411.91. The engine applies the $411.91 maximum directly. Old text frames dropping the $443.11 as the largest error group.", + "old": "The requested payroll_tax output includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In New York those are Paid Family Leave (PFL) and disability benefits (DBL) contributions. The federal part is simple: 7.65% of the full $100,195 wage base, or $7,664.92. On top of that, 2026 NY PFL is 0.432% of wages capped at the statewide average weekly wage base of $95,350.72, which caps the contribution at $411.91, and DBL is $0.60/week, or $31.20 a year. The largest group of models dropped the $443.11 of NY contributions entirely. Others used stale 2024/2025 PFL rates or caps, applied the 0.432% rate without the cap, or wrongly cut the FICA base by subtracting the employer-sponsored insurance premium or the 401(k) deferral.", + "new": "The reference is $8,108.03: employee Social Security and Medicare, 7.65% of the full $100,195 of wages ($6,212.09 plus $1,452.83, or $7,664.92), plus $443.11 of New York contributions: Paid Family Leave (PFL) at 0.432% of wages up to its 2026 annual maximum of $411.91, and disability benefits (DBL) at $0.60 a week, $31.20 a year. New York lets the employer collect these from the employee up to those caps but does not require it, and the employer pays the disability cost it does not collect. The reference counts the most the employer may collect; the prompt does not say what this employer does, and counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92. Four models matched the reference. Of the other 42, fourteen answered federal tax alone (about $7,665), saying New York has no employee payroll tax or none is modeled, calling the contributions negligible, or not mentioning them. Eight more left both out and made another error: FICA understated or mis-added (answers from $7,654 to $7,765 instead of $7,664.92), or a FICA base cut by subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium or the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral, which the engine does not subtract. Eighteen included PFL or DBL at other amounts: PFL at rates, caps or estimates other than 0.432% up to $411.91, or at 0.432% with no cap; DBL alone; or PFL without DBL; four of them also cut the FICA base by the insurance premium. One subtracted an invented $200 of New York deductions from FICA, and one returned no value." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text calls the $127.60 'Minnesota's paid leave contribution requirement'; the employer may pay that share. Old text names the variable 'mn_paid_leave_contribution'; policyengine-us 2.15.17 has no such variable. The component is mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated the household's payroll tax at $2,346.10 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The primary component was employee_social_security_tax of $1,798, calculated on the primary earner's employment_income of $29,000. The second component was employee_medicare_tax of $420.50, also based on the same earnings. The third component was employee_state_payroll_tax of $127.60, which reflects Minnesota's paid leave contribution requirement (mn_paid_leave_contribution) applied to the mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $29,000. The secondary adult in the household had no employment income and therefore contributed $0 to all payroll tax categories.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated the household's payroll tax at $2,346.10 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The primary component was employee_social_security_tax of $1,798, calculated on the primary earner's employment_income of $29,000. The second component was employee_medicare_tax of $420.50, also based on the same earnings. The third component was employee_state_payroll_tax of $127.60, the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution (mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution): the 0.44% employee rate applied to mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $29,000. The engine documents this contribution as assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share; Minnesota lets the employer pay that share instead, and the prompt does not say which it does. Without it the total is $2,218.50. The secondary adult in the household had no employment income and therefore contributed $0 to all payroll tax categories." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text sums the FAMLI share into 'the final payroll tax obligation of $330.73', presenting the largest deductible share as an obligation of the household. Old text's components, $253.47 + $59.28 + $17.99, add to $330.74 as printed against its stated $330.73; the engine's unrounded amounts (253.465 + 59.278 + 17.988, payroll_decomposition.json) sum to 330.731, so the new text says the parts are rounded.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated a payroll tax of $330.73 for this single Colorado resident with approximately $4,642 in household income. The total payroll tax comprises three components: employee Social Security tax of $253.47, employee Medicare tax of $59.28, and Colorado state payroll tax of $17.99. The Colorado state payroll tax is specifically a Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) contribution, calculated on $4,088.15 in taxable wages derived from the household's employment income. These three tax components sum to the final payroll tax obligation of $330.73.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated a payroll tax of $330.73 for this single Colorado resident with approximately $4,642 in household income. The total comprises three components: employee Social Security tax of $253.47, employee Medicare tax of $59.28, and Colorado state payroll tax of $17.99; each is rounded to the cent here, and the unrounded amounts sum to $330.73. The Colorado amount is the employee Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) contribution (co_employee_famli_contribution): the 0.44% employee rate applied to $4,088.15 of FAMLI taxable wages from the household's employment income. That rate is the most an employer may deduct, half of the 0.88% premium; Colorado lets the employer pay that share instead, and the prompt does not say which it does. Without it the total is $312.74." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text calls the PFML share a 'paid leave contribution tax' and the sum 'the total payroll tax obligation', presenting the largest deductible share as an obligation of the household.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax for this Massachusetts resident at $14,192.66 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The largest component was employee_social_security_tax at $10,850.12, calculated on wages up to the annual Social Security wage base. The employee_medicare_tax contributed $2,537.53, assessed on the full employment income of $175,002 with no wage cap. Additionally, Massachusetts's paid leave contribution tax added $805.01, computed as a percentage of the ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $175,002, which is specific to Massachusetts's Paid Family and Medical Leave program. These three components—Social Security, Medicare, and the state paid leave contribution—sum to the total payroll tax obligation of $14,192.66.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax for this Massachusetts resident at $14,192.66 by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The largest component was employee_social_security_tax at $10,850.12, calculated on wages up to the annual Social Security wage base. The employee_medicare_tax contributed $2,537.53, assessed on the full employment income of $175,002 with no wage cap. The third component, $805.01, is the Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave employee contribution (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution): 0.46% of the ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages of $175,002, the full 0.18% family rate plus 40% of the 0.70% medical rate. The engine documents this contribution as assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share; Massachusetts lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does. Without it the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "Old text says both New York contributions were 'calculated on the same $100,195 in taxable wages' without the caps that set them ($411.91 and $31.20), and calls the sum 'the total payroll tax obligation', presenting the largest collectible shares as an obligation of the household.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax at $8,108.03 for this New York head-of-household by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The federal employee Social Security tax contributed $6,212.09 based on the household's employment income of $100,195, while the federal employee Medicare tax added $1,452.83. New York state payroll taxes accounted for an additional $443.11, composed of $411.91 in paid family leave contributions and $31.20 in disability benefits contributions, both calculated on the same $100,195 in taxable wages. These three federal and state components combined to produce the total payroll tax obligation of $8,108.03.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated the spm_unit_payroll_tax at $8,108.03 for this New York head-of-household by summing three components of employee payroll taxes. The federal employee Social Security tax contributed $6,212.09 based on the household's employment income of $100,195, while the federal employee Medicare tax added $1,452.83. New York state payroll taxes added $443.11: a Paid Family Leave contribution of $411.91 (0.432% of the $100,195 in taxable wages is $432.84, above the $411.91 annual maximum) and a disability benefits contribution of $31.20 (0.5% of wages, capped at $31.20 a year, $0.60 a week for 52 weeks). These are the most the employer may collect from the employee; New York lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does. Without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Got FICA right ($1,798 + $420.50) but said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026. That drops the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It answered federal payroll tax alone, $1,798 Social Security plus $420.50 Medicare = $2,218.50, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only the 7.65% FICA rate and said Minnesota has no modeled mandatory employee payroll tax. It left out the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000).", + "new": "It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, saying there is no modeled mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees, so it missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave contribution. It then cut its own $2,218.50 FICA total to $2,175.90, citing unexplained 'state-specific considerations', with no rule behind the change.", + "new": "It said Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees and reached $2,218.50, then cut that to $2,175.90 for unexplained 'state-specific considerations', with no rule behind the change. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed 7.65% × $29,000 = $2,218.50 and said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026.", + "new": "It computed 7.65% × $29,000 = $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Got Social Security and Medicare right but said Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax. It missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium (0.44% of $29,000 in taxable wages).", + "new": "It got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right and stopped at $2,218.50, saying Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Stopped at federal FICA of $2,218.50 and said there is no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. It omitted the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It stopped at federal FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only 7.65% FICA to $29,000 and never considered Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee premium. That premium adds 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50, federal payroll tax alone, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota imposes no employee payroll tax beyond the federal ones. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60, which applies from 2026.", + "new": "It said Minnesota imposes no employee payroll tax beyond the federal ones and answered $2,218.50. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota has no paid family leave employee contribution in 2026. In fact Minnesota Paid Leave premiums start in 2026, and the employee share is 0.44% of $29,000 = $127.60, which it left out.", + "new": "It said Minnesota has no state disability or paid family leave employee contribution in 2026 and answered $2,218.50. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums do start in 2026: the reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Assumed no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax is modeled and stopped at $2,218.50. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It assumed no mandatory Minnesota employee state payroll tax is modeled and stopped at $2,218.50. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied 7.65% FICA and said there is no employee state payroll tax. It missed Minnesota's 2026 Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and said there is no employee state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Correctly counted the Minnesota Paid Leave employee share but used a 0.35% rate ($101.50). PolicyEngine applies a 0.44% employee contribution to the $29,000 in paid-leave taxable wages, which gives $127.60, so the answer came out $26.10 short.", + "new": "It counted a Minnesota Paid Leave employee share, but at 0.35% ($101.50), for $2,320. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, 0.44% of the $29,000 in paid-leave taxable wages, or $127.60, so the answer is $26.10 under it; without the share, which the law lets the employer pay itself, the total is $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Its explanation says no employee state payroll tax applies and totals only FICA at $2,218.50, so it missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave contribution. Its recorded value of $2,320 does not match that explanation and matches no correct derivation. It lines up with FICA plus a 0.35% paid-leave rate instead of the 0.44% employee share.", + "new": "Its stored explanation says no employee state payroll tax applies and totals $2,218.50, federal tax alone. Its recorded value, $2,320, matches another response in its raw output, which added a $101.50 Minnesota Paid Leave premium (0.35% of $29,000). The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed only the 7.65% employee FICA ($2,218.50). It never applied Minnesota's mandatory 2026 Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It computed only the 7.65% employee FICA, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Counted only Social Security and Medicare, rounded to $2,219, and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that belongs in employee state payroll tax.", + "new": "It counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied 7.65% to $29,000 and never considered Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution. That contribution adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000).", + "new": "It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed only federal FICA at 7.65% ($2,218.50). It missed the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It computed only federal FICA at 7.65%, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000 and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It counted only Social Security and Medicare on $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Treated payroll tax as 7.65% of wages only. It omitted Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It treated payroll tax as 7.65% of wages, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed 7.65% employee FICA only and never added the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It computed 7.65% employee FICA only, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right but left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It got Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50) right and stopped at $2,218.50, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The correct derivation is $1,798 Social Security + $420.50 Medicare + $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave = $2,346.10.", + "new": "It submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied 7.65% FICA and ruled out Additional Medicare Tax but never applied Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It applied 7.65% to $29,000 for $2,218.50 and ruled out Additional Medicare Tax, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Its explanation lists only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare on $29,000 and says Minnesota has no employee payroll tax, which would total $2,218.50. The $4,428.60 it submitted is about double that, close to the 15.3% employer-plus-employee FICA total. It also missed the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution.", + "new": "Its explanation lists only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare on $29,000 and says Minnesota has no mandatory state employee payroll tax, which would total $2,218.50. The $4,428.60 it submitted is about double that, close to the 15.3% employer-plus-employee FICA total ($4,437). The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "First computed $2,218.50 correctly, then threw it out in favor of an invented 5.24% rate tied to a Social Security wage-base cap that does not bind at $29,000. It also treated Minnesota's employee payroll tax as unspecified and never added the $127.60 Paid Leave contribution.", + "new": "It first computed $2,218.50, then threw it out for an invented 5.24% rate ($1,520) tied to a Social Security wage-base cap that does not bind at $29,000. It treated Minnesota's employee payroll tax as unspecified and added none. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said there is no state payroll tax and stopped at FICA of $2,218.50. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It stopped at FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no additional or state payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied 7.65% FICA, rounded to $2,219, and left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000) that applies in 2026.", + "new": "It applied 7.65% FICA to $29,000, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Concluded that no employee-side payroll tax applies beyond FICA. It missed Minnesota's mandatory 2026 Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It answered 7.65% of $29,000, $2,218.50, saying no other employee-side payroll tax is indicated. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed only 7.65% FICA on $29,000 and never added the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It computed only 7.65% FICA on $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only Social Security and Medicare to $29,000. It omitted the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It applied only Social Security and Medicare to $29,000, $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026.", + "new": "It stopped at $2,218.50, saying no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said there is no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax and stopped at FICA of $2,218.50. It left out the $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It stopped at FICA of $2,218.50, saying there is no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota paid-leave withholding is optional. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums are mandatory from 2026, and the employee share is 0.44% of the $29,000 in taxable wages ($127.60), which it left out.", + "new": "It answered federal payroll tax alone, $2,218.50, saying Minnesota paid-leave withholding is optional. The law does leave the deduction to the employer, which owes the premium and may deduct up to 0.44% of wages from the employee or pay that share itself. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), for $2,346.10; the prompt does not say what this employer does." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Summed only Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50). It never applied Minnesota's mandatory Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It summed only Social Security ($1,798) and Medicare ($420.50), $2,218.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said no state employee payroll taxes apply. It missed the 2026 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of $127.60 (0.44% × $29,000).", + "new": "It answered $2,218.50, saying no state employee payroll taxes apply. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The correct derivation is $1,798 Social Security + $420.50 Medicare + $127.60 Minnesota Paid Leave = $2,346.10.", + "new": "It submitted no payroll_tax value and no explanation, so there was no answer to score. The reference is $1,798 + $420.50 + $127.60 = $2,346.10, counting the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave (0.44% of $29,000); the law lets the employer pay that share itself, and without it the total is federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed FICA of $2,218.50, rounded to $2,219, and never applied the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It computed FICA of $2,218.50, rounded to $2,219, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax. It missed the Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60 that took effect in 2026.", + "new": "It stopped at $2,218.50, saying Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax because it lacks a CA/NY-style disability insurance tax. It overlooked Minnesota's 2026 Paid Leave program, whose employee contribution is 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It said Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax because it has no CA/NY-style disability insurance tax, and rounded $2,218.50 to $2,219, without mentioning Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only 7.65% FICA and miswrote Medicare as $419.50 instead of $420.50, though its total was still $2,218.50. It left out the Minnesota Paid Leave employee contribution of 0.44% × $29,000 = $127.60.", + "new": "It applied only 7.65% FICA, $2,218.50, miswriting Medicare as $419.50 instead of $420.50, and did not mention Minnesota Paid Leave. The reference adds $127.60 (0.44% of $29,000), the most the employer may deduct for Minnesota Paid Leave. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $2,218.50." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "The model correctly counted FICA ($312.73) plus the Colorado FAMLI employee premium and reached $331.14 in its reasoning. That total used 0.45% instead of the 2026 employee rate of 0.44%. It then submitted $315.14, a number its own calculation does not support, so the answer is a transcription error on top of the small rate error.", + "new": "It counted FICA ($312.73) plus a Colorado FAMLI employee premium at 0.45% ($18.40) and reached $331.14 in its reasoning, within $1 of the reference ($330.73, which counts the most the employer may deduct, 0.44% of wages). It then submitted $315.14, a number its own calculation does not support, so the miss comes from that figure, not the rate." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model assumed no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It left out the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the payroll_tax output includes.", + "new": "It assumed no modeled mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory state payroll tax. It missed the Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and submitted FICA only, rounded to $313.", + "new": "It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Colorado and submitted FICA only, $312.74 rounded to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model identified the Colorado FAMLI employee premium and computed it, but then excluded it on the grounds that it is like unemployment insurance. FAMLI is a mandatory employee-side state payroll premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and belongs in payroll_tax. The model submitted FICA only ($312.73).", + "new": "It computed a Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.45% × $4,088 = $18.40), then left it out as like state unemployment insurance and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that Colorado has no applicable mandatory employee payroll tax. It left out the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99) and submitted FICA only ($312.73).", + "new": "It said Colorado has no mandatory employee payroll tax applicable here and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model computed only employee FICA on $4,088 and rounded to $313. It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99).", + "new": "It computed only employee FICA on $4,088, about $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model treated employee payroll tax as 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It left out the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It treated employee payroll tax as 7.65% FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax. Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees a premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the model omitted from its $312.73 FICA-only total.", + "new": "It said Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model said Colorado has no employee state disability or leave contribution. It missed the mandatory Colorado FAMLI paid-leave premium (0.44% of wages, $17.99) and submitted FICA only ($312.73).", + "new": "It said Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax, no state disability or unemployment-insurance employee contribution, and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model asserted that Colorado has no employee state payroll tax and submitted 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said Colorado has no employee state payroll tax and submitted 7.65% FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "The model correctly included the Colorado FAMLI employee premium but priced it at $24.53, which is 0.6% of wages. The 2026 employee share is half of the 0.88% total premium, or 0.44% ($17.99), so the model overstated FAMLI by about $6.54.", + "new": "It included a Colorado FAMLI employee premium but priced it at $24.53, which is 0.6% of the $4,088 in wages, for $337.26. The reference counts the most the employer may deduct, half the 0.88% premium, or 0.44% of wages ($17.99), so the model's FAMLI is $6.54 above it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "The model subtracted the full $8,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages and reduced the FICA and FAMLI wage base to zero. The listed premiums are not a pre-tax employee salary reduction that shrinks the $4,088 of taxable wages. Applying FICA plus the 0.44% FAMLI premium to the full wages gives $330.73.", + "new": "It subtracted the full $8,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, cut the FICA and FAMLI wage base to $0 and returned $0. The engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $4,088.15 of wages, $312.74, and the reference adds $17.99 of FAMLI (0.44% of wages, the most the employer may deduct, which the law lets the employer pay itself), for $330.73." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model applied only 7.65% FICA to $4,088 of wages. It left out the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It applied only 7.65% FICA to $4,088 of wages, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model summed only employee Social Security and Medicare tax ($312.74). It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It summed only employee Social Security and Medicare tax, $312.74, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model counted only Social Security and Medicare ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99), which the payroll_tax output includes.", + "new": "It counted only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model computed employee FICA only ($312.73). It never included the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It computed employee FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model applied 7.65% FICA to wages and rounded to $313. It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It applied 7.65% FICA to wages, $312.73, rounded to $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that no state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado, missing the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99). It also truncated its FICA-only figure to $312.", + "new": "It said no state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado and submitted FICA only, truncated to $312. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "The model returned $0 and claimed the wages were not subject to employee payroll taxes, without computing anything. The $4,088 of wages is fully subject to 6.2% Social Security, 1.45% Medicare and the 0.44% Colorado FAMLI premium, which together total $330.73.", + "new": "It returned $0, treating the wages as not subject to employee payroll taxes, without computing anything. The engine applies 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare to the full $4,088.15 of wages, $312.74, and the reference adds $17.99 of FAMLI (0.44% of wages, the most the employer may deduct, which the law lets the employer pay itself), for $330.73." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model applied 7.65% FICA and explicitly left out any mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax. It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It applied 7.65% FICA, $312.73, and said it included no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model computed only 7.65% FICA on $4,088 ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It computed only 7.65% FICA on $4,088, $312.732, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model computed only Social Security and Medicare and rounded to $313. It never added the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It computed only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, rounded to $313, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model correctly kept 401(k) deferrals in the FICA base but asserted that Colorado has no employee payroll tax. It omitted the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It kept the 401(k) deferrals in the FICA base and said no Colorado employee payroll tax applies, submitting FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that no Colorado employee payroll tax applies and submitted 7.65% FICA only ($312.73). It missed the mandatory FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said no Colorado employee payroll tax applies and submitted 7.65% FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that no mandatory state payroll taxes apply and rounded FICA to $313. It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply and rounded FICA of $312.732 to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model computed employee FICA only ($312.73). It never included the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It computed employee FICA only, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and rounded FICA to $313. It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and rounded FICA to $313. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model included only Social Security and Medicare ($312.73). It omitted the mandatory Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It included only Social Security and Medicare, $312.73, and did not mention FAMLI. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model asserted that Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It missed the FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "The model stated that Colorado imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax and submitted FICA only ($312.73). It omitted the Colorado FAMLI employee premium of 0.44% of wages ($17.99).", + "new": "It said Colorado does not impose a mandatory employee payroll income tax and submitted FICA only, $312.73. The reference adds $17.99 (0.44% of wages), the most the employer may deduct for Colorado FAMLI, half the 0.88% premium. The law lets the employer pay that share itself, and the prompt does not say which it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone: $312.74 in the engine, $312.73 on the prompt's rounded $4,088 of wages." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It correctly computed the MA PFML employee contribution as 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It then dropped that contribution, assuming PolicyEngine counts only SS and Medicare. It also submitted $13,268.70, which does not match even its own $13,387.65 subtotal; the correct total adds the $805.01 to reach $14,192.66.", + "new": "It computed a Massachusetts PFML employee share of 0.46% × $175,002 = $805.01, then dropped it, assuming a PolicyEngine-style payroll tax counts only Social Security and Medicare when state payroll tax is not modeled. It then submitted $13,268.70, which does not match even its own $13,387.65 subtotal. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It computed SS ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53) correctly. It left out the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01), which the payroll_tax definition includes as a mandatory employee state payroll tax.", + "new": "It computed Social Security ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53) and stopped at $13,387.65, federal tax alone, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It said Massachusetts has no separate mandatory employee payroll tax, missing the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also capped SS at the outdated $168,600 wage base, even though the full $175,002 is below the 2026 base. It then submitted $13,383.41, which matches neither of its own subtotals.", + "new": "It said Massachusetts has no separate mandatory employee payroll tax beyond federal taxes and did not count PFML. It capped Social Security at an outdated $168,600 wage base, though the engine taxes the full $175,002, and then submitted $13,383.41, which matches neither of its own subtotals. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It estimated the MA PFML employee contribution at about $0 by treating the medical share as employer-paid. The actual employee rate is 0.46% of wages, which gives $805.01. It also submitted $12,321.73, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal of SS plus Medicare on full wages.", + "new": "It estimated the Massachusetts PFML employee contribution at about $0 and submitted $12,321.73, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal of Social Security and Medicare on full wages. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It set MA PFML to 0 because it had no rate, omitting the 0.46% employee contribution of $805.01. It then submitted $12,717.62, which is not the $13,387.65 sum of the SS and Medicare figures it had just computed.", + "new": "It set Massachusetts PFML to 0 for lack of a rate, then submitted $12,717.62, which is not the $13,387.65 sum of the Social Security and Medicare figures it had just computed. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It explicitly set the MA PFML employee contribution to about $0 instead of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It also rounded SS plus Medicare down to $13,385 rather than $13,387.65.", + "new": "It set Massachusetts PFML to about $0, wrote a total of about $13,388 and submitted $13,385, below the $13,387.65 of Social Security and Medicare. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It identified the MA PFML employee contribution of about $805 at 0.46%, then excluded it on the assumption that the model leaves it out. The payroll_tax definition covers mandatory employee state payroll taxes, so the $805.01 belongs in the $14,192.66 total.", + "new": "It computed Social Security ($10,850.12) and Medicare ($2,537.53), named the Massachusetts PFML employee contribution (about $805 at 0.46%) and left it out, assuming the reference model does not include it, answering $13,387.65, federal tax alone. The engine does include it: the reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It first reached the correct $14,192.66 using the 0.46% PFML employee rate. It then switched to 0.604%, built on an inverted split: employees paying all of a 0.42% medical portion plus 40% of a 0.46% family portion. The MA employee share is 0.46% of wages, so its PFML came out at $1,057.01 instead of $805.01.", + "new": "It first reached $14,192.66, the reference, with a 0.46% PFML employee rate, then switched to 0.604%: all of a 0.42% medical portion plus 40% of a 0.46% family portion. The engine uses 2026 rates of 0.18% family and 0.70% medical and counts all of the family rate and 40% of the medical, 0.46% of wages, the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; its PFML came out at $1,057.01 against the reference's $805.01." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It treated MA PFML as employer-side only and excluded it, missing the mandatory employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01. It then submitted $12,318.65, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 sum of SS and Medicare.", + "new": "It treated Massachusetts PFML as employer-side only and left it out, then submitted $12,318.65, which contradicts its own $13,387.65 sum of Social Security and Medicare. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It stated outright that it did not include the MA PFML contribution. That dropped the mandatory 0.46% employee contribution ($805.01) from an otherwise correct SS plus Medicare total of $13,387.65.", + "new": "It said outright that it did not include any Massachusetts PFML contribution and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It asserted that Massachusetts has no employee state payroll tax, overlooking the mandatory PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01) that brings the total to $14,192.66.", + "new": "It said Massachusetts has no employee state payroll tax and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It correctly included MA PFML but applied a 0.38% employee rate instead of 0.46%. That understated PFML at about $665 versus $805.01, and it then rounded the total to $14,053.", + "new": "It included a Massachusetts PFML employee share at 0.38% of wages, about $665, and rounded the total to $14,053. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It included MA PFML at an estimated 0.318% of wages ($556.51). The employee rate is 0.46% ($805.01), so the total fell $248.50 short.", + "new": "It included Massachusetts PFML at an estimated 0.318% of wages ($556.51), for $13,944.16. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, so the total is $248.50 under it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It counted only 6.2% SS plus 1.45% Medicare and omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01). Its $11,843 does not even equal 7.65% x $175,002 = $13,387.65, the result of the formula it described.", + "new": "It counted only 6.2% Social Security plus 1.45% Medicare and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. Its $11,843 does not even equal 7.65% × $175,002 = $13,387.65, the result of the formula it described. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It reduced FICA wages to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 ESI premiums as pre-tax, when the payroll tax base is the full $175,002. It also omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01) entirely.", + "new": "It reduced FICA wages to $167,613 by subtracting the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums as pre-tax, when the engine's payroll tax base is the full $175,002, and it did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It named the right three components (SS, Medicare and MA PFML), but its $13,444 total is only $56 above SS plus Medicare on full wages ($13,387.65). That means it counted about $56 of PFML instead of the $805.01 produced by the 0.46% employee rate.", + "new": "It named Social Security, Medicare and Massachusetts PFML contributions, but its $13,444 total is only about $56 above Social Security plus Medicare on full wages ($13,387.65), so on full wages it counted about $56 of PFML. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It stopped at SS plus Medicare ($13,387.65) and never added the mandatory 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution of $805.01.", + "new": "It stopped at Social Security plus Medicare, $13,387.65, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It built a 0.532% PFML employee rate by taking 40% of the entire 0.88% combined rate (0.352%) as the medical share and adding the 0.18% family share. The employee's 40% applies only to the 0.70% medical portion, giving 0.28% + 0.18% = 0.46%. It therefore overstated PFML at $931 instead of $805.01.", + "new": "It built a 0.532% PFML employee rate by taking 40% of the entire 0.88% combined rate (0.352%) as the medical share and adding the 0.18% family share. The engine counts 40% of only the 0.70% medical rate plus the 0.18% family rate, 0.28% + 0.18% = 0.46%, the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct; its PFML came out at $931 against the reference's $805.01." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It asserted that Massachusetts has no mandatory employee payroll tax and omitted the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01.", + "new": "It said Massachusetts has no mandatory employee payroll tax and answered $13,387.65, Social Security plus Medicare. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It counted only SS and Medicare, which it also mis-added as $13,389.37 instead of $13,387.65. It omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of $805.01 at 0.46% of wages.", + "new": "It counted only Social Security and Medicare, submitting $13,389.37 rather than the $13,387.65 they come to, and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It wrongly claimed the wages exceed the $200,000 Additional Medicare Tax threshold ($175,002 does not). It also submitted $5,420, less than half the $10,850.12 SS tax alone, and omitted the $805.01 MA PFML contribution.", + "new": "It wrongly claimed the wages exceed the $200,000 Additional Medicare Tax threshold ($175,002 does not) and submitted $5,420, less than half the $10,850.12 of Social Security tax alone, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Its SS plus Medicare total of $13,387.65 is correct, but it estimated MA PFML at $962.51, which is 0.55% of wages. The employee rate is 0.46%, giving $805.01.", + "new": "Its Social Security plus Medicare total of $13,387.65 matches the engine, but it estimated Massachusetts PFML withholding at $962.51, which is 0.55% of wages. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It counted only 6.2% SS and 1.45% Medicare (about $13,388) and omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% of wages ($805.01).", + "new": "It counted only 6.2% Social Security and 1.45% Medicare, about $13,388, without mentioning Massachusetts PFML. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It applied the combined 2.9% employer-plus-employee Medicare rate instead of the 1.45% employee rate, doubling Medicare to about $5,075. It also omitted the 0.46% MA PFML employee contribution ($805.01).", + "new": "It applied the combined 2.9% employer-plus-employee Medicare rate instead of the 1.45% employee rate, doubling Medicare to about $5,075, and did not mention Massachusetts PFML. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls 0.46% 'the employee rate', presenting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct as the employee's rate (the same wording rewritten on gemini-3-flash-preview and gpt-5.6-terra); presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It included MA PFML at 0.318% of wages ($556) instead of the 0.46% employee rate ($805.01), and it rounded the components to whole dollars.", + "new": "It included Massachusetts PFML at 0.318% of wages ($556) and rounded the components to whole dollars, for $13,944. The reference counts the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct, 0.46% of $175,002 = $805.01, for $14,192.66." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It assumed there is no state payroll tax and applied only 7.65% FICA. That omitted the mandatory MA PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01.", + "new": "It assumed there is no state payroll tax and applied only 7.65% FICA, rounded to $13,388. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It returned no payroll_tax value and no explanation. The correct derivation is SS $10,850.12 + Medicare $2,537.53 + MA PFML $805.01 = $14,192.66.", + "new": "It returned no payroll_tax value and no explanation. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "It returned $0 with no reasoning, as though the head owed no employee payroll tax at all. On $175,002 of wages the correct derivation gives SS $10,850.12 + Medicare $2,537.53 + MA PFML $805.01 = $14,192.66.", + "new": "It returned $0 with no reasoning, as though the head owed no employee payroll tax at all. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It stated that Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax and stopped at $13,387.65. That omitted the PFML employee contribution of 0.46% x $175,002 = $805.01.", + "new": "It said Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax modeled here and stopped at $13,387.65. The reference adds $805.01 (0.46% of $175,002), the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for Massachusetts PFML. The law lets the employer deduct less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "It asserted that Massachusetts has no mandatory state payroll tax, missing the 0.46% PFML employee contribution ($805.01). It then submitted an unexplained $14,525.24 that contradicts its own $13,387.65 subtotal.", + "new": "It said no mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Massachusetts, totaled $13,387.65, and then submitted an unexplained $14,525.24 that contradicts that total. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Its listed components (SS, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax) leave out the MA PFML employee contribution. By its own formula the total is 7.65% x $175,002 = $13,387.65 with no Additional Medicare Tax, not $13,922. The correct total adds $805.01 of PFML at 0.46% to reach $14,192.66.", + "new": "It listed Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax, not Massachusetts PFML, and submitted $13,922. By its own formula the total is 7.65% × $175,002 = $13,387.65 with no Additional Medicare Tax. The reference is $10,850.12 Social Security + $2,537.53 Medicare + $805.01 PFML = $14,192.66, counting the most Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct for PFML (0.46% of $175,002); the law lets the employer deduct less or none, and without that share the total is $13,387.65." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed federal FICA correctly at $7,664.92 but left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, calling them negligible or excluded. The output definition explicitly includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes, so $443.11 is missing.", + "new": "It computed federal FICA at $7,664.92 and left out New York's PFL and disability contributions, calling them negligible and excluded. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Summed only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL contribution (0.432% capped at $411.91) and DBL contribution ($31.20), both of which the payroll_tax output includes.", + "new": "It summed only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Applied a made-up 0.62% NY PFL rate to the full $100,195 without the wage cap ($621.21), then added an unspecified plug for other NY withholdings. The 2026 PFL is 0.432% capped at $411.91 and DBL is $31.20, so NY payroll tax is overstated by about $197.", + "new": "It applied a 0.62% New York PFL rate to the full $100,195 with no cap ($621.21), then added an unspecified amount for other New York withholdings, for $640 of state contributions. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL (0.432% of wages up to the cap) and $31.20 of DBL, or $443.11, so the model's state part is about $197 over it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Correctly identified DBL at $31.20 but then dropped its own PFL estimate and replaced it with an unsupported $49.31. That gives only $80.51 of NY contributions instead of $443.11. The 2026 PFL rate is 0.432%, not the 2025 rate of 0.388%, and the $95,350.72 wage cap makes the PFL contribution $411.91.", + "new": "It counted DBL at $31.20 but dropped its own PFL estimate (0.388%, capped at about $354) for an unsupported $49.31, so it added only $80.51 of New York contributions. The reference counts the most the employer may collect: PFL at the 2026 rate of 0.432% up to the $411.91 cap, plus DBL of $31.20, or $443.11, for $8,108.03." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Wrongly stated that New York has no mandatory employee payroll tax. It therefore left out the employee PFL contribution ($411.91 at the 2026 cap) and the DBL contribution ($31.20), reporting only the $7,664.92 federal FICA.", + "new": "It said New York has no mandatory employee payroll tax and reported only the $7,664.92 of federal FICA. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Asserted that NY imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax for this output and reported only rounded FICA ($7,665). The NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) employee contributions are mandatory and belong in payroll_tax.", + "new": "It said New York imposes no mandatory employee payroll tax counted here and reported rounded FICA, $7,665. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Stopped at federal FICA ($7,664.92) on the claim that no NY employee payroll tax is modeled. NY PFL (0.432% capped at $411.91) and DBL ($0.60/week = $31.20) are both included in the payroll tax total.", + "new": "It stopped at federal FICA, $7,664.92, on the assumption that no mandatory New York employee payroll tax is modeled. The engine does include New York's contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Included DBL correctly at $31.20 but computed PFL with the 2025 parameters (0.388% on an ~$89,343 cap = $346.65). The 2026 parameters are 0.432% on a $95,350.72 cap, giving $411.91, so the total is short by $65.26.", + "new": "It counted DBL at $31.20 but computed PFL at 0.388% on a cap of about $89,343, $346.65, for $8,042.77. The reference counts the most the employer may collect at 2026 parameters, PFL of 0.432% of wages up to $411.91, so the total is $65.26 under it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer; cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Treated NY SDI/PFL as minimal and added an unsupported $129.39 estimate. The actual 2026 contributions are $411.91 for PFL (0.432% capped at the $95,350.72 wage base) plus $31.20 for DBL, so NY payroll tax is understated by about $314.", + "new": "It said New York's disability and PFL employee contributions are minimal and added an unsupported $129.39 estimate, for $7,794.31. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL (0.432% of wages up to the cap) and $31.20 of DBL, or $443.11, so the model's state part is about $314 under it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Declared that no NY payroll tax is modeled and reported only FICA of $7,664.92. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It said no New York payroll tax is modeled and reported only FICA, $7,664.92. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Subtracted the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages. Elective deferrals remain Social Security and Medicare wages under IRC §3121(v)(1)(A), so the base stays $100,195. It also asserted NY has no employee payroll tax, dropping PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20).", + "new": "It subtracted the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages ($100,014) and said New York has no mandatory employee state payroll taxes, for $7,651. The engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself; presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Included NY DBL ($31.20) but left out the mandatory NY PFL employee contribution. In 2026 that is 0.432% of wages capped at $411.91, so the total is short by exactly that amount.", + "new": "It included New York's disability contribution ($31.20) but not PFL, for $7,696.12. The reference also counts PFL at the most the employer may collect, 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $411.91 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none of either." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself; cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Used an incorrect NY PFL maximum of $369.68 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% × $95,350.72). It also left out the $31.20 NY DBL employee contribution.", + "new": "It used a New York PFL maximum of $369.68 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 and counted no DBL, for $8,034.60. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, so the total is $73.43 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Used the correct 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% but applied it to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the statewide average weekly wage cap of $95,350.72. That cap limits the contribution to $411.91, so the total is overstated by $20.93.", + "new": "It used the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% but applied it to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the cap, which limits the most the employer may collect to $411.91. The total is therefore $20.93 over the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Included DBL ($31) but used a stale NY PFL figure of about $333 (the 2024 maximum of $333.25). The 2026 PFL maximum is $411.91 (0.432% on a $95,350.72 cap), so the total falls about $79 short.", + "new": "It included DBL ($31) but used a New York PFL figure of about $333, below the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% of wages up to that cap), so the total is about $79 under the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate to wages ($7,665). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which are part of payroll_tax.", + "new": "It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate to wages, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the model's PFL rate 'stale', which no source in the audit evidence supports: the engine's NY PFL employee_rate parameter holds only 0 and 2026's 0.00432, and verification/law_research.json records only 2025's 0.388% and $354.53; $294.62 is 0.373% of the model's $78,987 base", + "old": "Subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987. The payroll tax base is the full $100,195, so Social Security and Medicare come to $7,664.92. It also applied PFL to the reduced base at a stale rate ($294.62) instead of the 2026 capped $411.91.", + "new": "Subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987. The payroll tax base is the full $100,195, so Social Security and Medicare come to $7,664.92. It also put PFL at $294.62, which is 0.373% of the reduced base, against the 2026 maximum of $411.91 that the reference counts." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Reduced FICA wages to $78,987 by subtracting the $21,208 ESI premium, which understates Social Security and Medicare by $1,622.42. It also used about $394 for PFL instead of $411.91 and left out the $31.20 NY DBL contribution.", + "new": "It reduced FICA wages to $78,987 by subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium, which understates Social Security and Medicare by $1,622.42 ($6,042.50 against the engine's $7,664.92 on the full $100,195). It used about $394 for PFL and counted no DBL. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, for $8,108.03; the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Counted only employee Social Security and Medicare on gross wages ($7,664.92). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It counted only employee Social Security and Medicare on gross wages, $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Computed FICA on $78,987 after subtracting the $21,208 ESI premium, instead of the full $100,195 wage base. That understates federal payroll tax by $1,622.42. Its NY PFL/DBL add-on of about $270 also falls short of the correct $443.11.", + "new": "It computed FICA on $78,987 after subtracting the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium, instead of the full $100,195, which understates federal payroll tax by about $1,622. Its New York disability and PFL add-on of about $270 is under the $443.11 the reference counts, the most the employer may collect ($411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL); the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Treated the $21,208 ESI premium as reducing FICA wages to $78,987, but Social Security and Medicare apply to the full $100,195. Its NY SDI/PFL amount of about $333 also understates the correct $443.11 ($411.91 PFL + $31.20 DBL).", + "new": "It treated the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium as reducing FICA wages to $78,987, but the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195. Its New York disability and PFL amount of about $333 is under the $443.11 the reference counts, the most the employer may collect ($411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL); the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Included DBL ($31.20) but computed PFL with the 2025 rate of 0.388% on a guessed $96,200 cap ($373.26). The 2026 rate is 0.432% on the $95,350.72 cap, giving $411.91, so the total is short by $38.65.", + "new": "It included DBL ($31.20) but computed PFL with the 2025 rate of 0.388% on a guessed $96,200 cap ($373.26). The reference counts the most the employer may collect at the 2026 rate of 0.432%, up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $38.65 under it." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Asserted NY has no employee-side payroll tax, leaving out PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20). It also mis-added its own components: $6,212 + $1,453 is $7,665, not $7,765.", + "new": "It said New York has no employee-side state payroll tax and mis-added its own components: $6,212 + $1,453 is $7,665, not $7,765. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Asserted NY has no mandatory employee payroll tax and reported a rounded-down FICA of $7,660 (the exact figure is $7,664.92). It left out the NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It said New York has no mandatory employee state payroll tax and reported FICA rounded down to $7,660 (the engine's is $7,664.92). The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Reported only federal Social Security and Medicare, under-rounded to $7,659 instead of $7,664.92. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It reported only federal Social Security and Medicare, under-rounded to $7,659 instead of $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Its NY add-on of $385.73 equals the 2025 PFL maximum ($354.53) plus DBL ($31.20). It used the 2025 cap instead of the 2026 PFL maximum of $411.91 (0.432% × $95,350.72), so the total is short by $57.38.", + "new": "Its New York add-on of $385.73 equals the 2025 PFL maximum ($354.53) plus DBL ($31.20). Against the 2026 PFL maximum of $411.91, the most the employer may collect, the total is $57.38 under the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself; presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Added the NY DBL contribution ($31.20) but left out the mandatory NY PFL employee contribution. In 2026 that is 0.432% of wages capped at $411.91.", + "new": "It added New York's disability contribution ($31.20) but not PFL, for $7,696.12. The reference also counts PFL at the most the employer may collect, 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, so the total is $411.91 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none of either." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate ($7,664.92). It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which the payroll_tax output includes.", + "new": "It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate, $7,664.92, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Reported only Social Security and Medicare, and understated even that figure ($7,654 instead of $7,664.92). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions entirely.", + "new": "It reported only Social Security and Medicare and understated even that ($7,654 instead of $7,664.92), without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Applied the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the $95,350.72 statewide average weekly wage cap. That cap limits the PFL contribution to $411.91, so the total is overstated by $20.93.", + "new": "It applied the 2026 PFL rate of 0.432% to all $100,195 of wages ($432.84) without the cap, which limits the most the employer may collect to $411.91. The total is therefore $20.93 over the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate ($7,665). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It applied only the 7.65% federal FICA rate, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Subtracted the $21,208 ESI premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987, when Social Security and Medicare apply to the full $100,195. It also asserted NY has no employee payroll tax, dropping PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20).", + "new": "It subtracted the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium from wages, giving a FICA base of $78,987, when the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195, and it said New York has no employee payroll tax. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself; cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Used a stale NY PFL figure of about $367 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% on the $95,350.72 cap). It also stated that no other employee state payroll tax applies, which leaves out the $31.20 NY DBL contribution.", + "new": "It counted New York PFL at about $367 instead of the 2026 maximum of $411.91 and said no other employee state payroll tax applies, so it counted no DBL, for $8,032. The reference counts the most the employer may collect, $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, so the total is about $76 under it; the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Reported only employee Social Security and Medicare, rounded to $7,665. It left out New York's mandatory employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It reported only employee Social Security ($6,212.09) and Medicare ($1,452.83), rounded to $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Subtracted both the $21,208 ESI premium and the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages. Elective deferrals are FICA wages, and the payroll tax base is the full $100,195. It also left out NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20).", + "new": "It subtracted both the $21,208 employer-sponsored insurance premium and the $181 traditional 401(k) deferral from FICA wages ($78,806), when the engine applies Social Security and Medicare to the full $100,195, and it did not mention New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)", + "old": "Included DBL (~$31) but estimated PFL at about $365 using outdated parameters. The 2026 PFL is 0.432% of wages capped at $95,350.72, which gives $411.91, so the total is short by about $47.", + "new": "It included DBL (about $31) but estimated PFL at about $365, below the 2026 maximum of $411.91 (0.432% of wages up to that cap), so the total is about $47 under the reference." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Returned no value and no explanation for payroll_tax, so there is no answer to score. The correct derivation is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 NY PFL + $31.20 NY DBL = $8,108.03.", + "new": "It returned no value and no explanation for payroll_tax, so there is no answer to score. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Computed federal FICA ($7,664.92, rounded to $7,665) and stopped there. It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions.", + "new": "It computed federal FICA, $7,664.92, rounded to $7,665, and stopped there, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Summed only employee Social Security and Medicare ($7,665). It left out the mandatory NY employee PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) contributions, which the payroll_tax output includes.", + "new": "It summed only employee Social Security and Medicare, $7,665, without mentioning New York's PFL or disability contributions. The reference adds $443.11, the most the employer may collect: Paid Family Leave at 0.432% of wages up to its $411.91 cap, and disability benefits at $0.60 a week ($31.20). The law lets the employer collect less or none, and the prompt does not say what it does; counting only what the law requires of the employee gives federal tax alone, $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "old": "Correctly found FICA of $7,664.92 and even reached a NY PFL estimate near the cap. It then subtracted an invented '~$-200' of NY deductions and reported $7,464.33, which is below FICA alone. NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20) are added to FICA, never subtracted.", + "new": "It found FICA of $7,664.92 and at one point estimated New York PFL at about $431.88, then subtracted an invented '~$-200' of New York deductions and reported $7,464.33, below FICA alone. The reference adds New York's contributions rather than subtracting them: $411.91 of PFL and $31.20 of DBL, the most the employer may collect, for $8,108.03; the law lets the employer collect less or none." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "payroll", + "reason": "calls the optional employee share mandatory; faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "old": "Explicitly excluded NY PFL ($411.91) and DBL ($31.20), even though the output definition requires mandatory employee state payroll taxes. It also mis-added its own components: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 is $7,664.92, not $7,752.42.", + "new": "It said it included no mandatory employee state payroll tax and mis-added its own components: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 is $7,664.92, not $7,752.42. The reference is $6,212.09 Social Security + $1,452.83 Medicare + $411.91 Paid Family Leave (PFL) + $31.20 disability benefits (DBL) = $8,108.03, counting the most the employer may collect for each (PFL at 0.432% of wages up to the $411.91 cap, DBL at $0.60 a week); the law lets the employer collect less or none, and without them the total is $7,664.92." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_051", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "The old note said the deduction is inflation-indexed from 2026 and so is $12,835, with no source; no Louisiana publication states $12,835. The new text gives the sourced chain from reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md (Recommendation item 2): R.S. 47:294(B), the December 2025 CPI-U (2.68%, the LFO's figure), the Department's $12,838 (RIB 26-019) and the provisional $12,875 withholding amount. It also corrects the model summary: the old text said all models outside the $830.40 group used repealed pre-2025 law, but four of them computed $830.40 with $12,500 and then submitted another figure, and eight others claimed no tax, gave no derivation or gave no answer. The 2026-09-22 developer adjudication sentence is kept verbatim.", + "old": "Louisiana's post-2024 reform (Act 11, 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) applies a flat 3% rate to federal AGI minus a single standard deduction. That deduction was $12,500 for 2025 and is inflation-indexed starting in 2026, which gives $12,835 for the 2026 tax year. On $40,180 of AGI, that leaves $27,345 taxable and $820.35 of tax. The largest group of models knew the flat 3% structure but used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $830.40. The other models used the repealed pre-2025 law: 1.85%/3.5% brackets, a $4,500 combined exemption, or a deduction for federal income tax. Some of those also subtracted ESI premiums from AGI or claimed Louisiana has no income tax. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated llm_error (thresholds_rates). The frozen 814.95 is regenerated as 820.35: it corrects an engine defect fixed upstream (fixed in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8839 (issue #8828), after the reference freeze): Capital gain distributions are long-term capital gain in gross income and in the preferential-rate base. Reference regenerated (26 U.S.C. 61(a)(3), 852(b)(3)(B); Form 1040 line 7).", + "new": "Louisiana's post-2024 reform (Act 11, 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) applies a flat 3% rate to federal AGI minus a single standard deduction. That deduction was $12,500 for 2025, and R.S. 47:294(B) raises it by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. On $40,180 of AGI, that leaves $27,345 taxable and $820.35 of tax. Before the reference freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement income exemption, which R.S. 47:44.1 indexes in the same words (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $820.26, within the $1 tolerance for an exact match. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025; it would give $819.15. The largest group, 21 of the 46 models, knew the flat 3% structure but used 2025's $12,500 and answered $830.40 or $830; four more reached about $830 that way and then submitted a different figure ($632 to $1,080). Of the other 21, 13 used repealed rules: 1.85%/3.5% brackets, a $4,500 exemption or deduction, or a deduction for federal income tax; six of these also subtracted the ESI premiums from AGI. The remaining eight claimed Louisiana has no income tax or that deductions offset it, gave a figure with no derivation, or gave no answer. Developer adjudication (2026-09-22): the judge (claude-opus-5-5) returned llm_error; adjudicated llm_error (thresholds_rates). The frozen 814.95 is regenerated as 820.35: it corrects an engine defect fixed upstream (fixed in PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8839 (issue #8828), after the reference freeze): Capital gain distributions are long-term capital gain in gross income and in the preferential-rate base. Reference regenerated (26 U.S.C. 61(a)(3), 852(b)(3)(B); Form 1040 line 7)." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "case_annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "The old note said the deduction is inflation-indexed from 2026 and so is $12,835, with no source; no Louisiana publication states $12,835. The new text gives the sourced chain from reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md (Recommendation item 2): R.S. 47:294(B), the December 2025 CPI-U (2.68%, the LFO's figure), the Department's $12,838 (RIB 26-019) and the provisional $12,875 withholding amount. It records that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used $12,875. It also drops the claim that the 2025 reform replaced the federal income tax deduction (policyengine-us ends that deduction after 2021: deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml, citing Acts 2021, No. 39), and corrects 'Most models used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $315.18': 19 of 46 answered $315.18 or $315.", + "old": "Louisiana's 2025 reform (Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) replaced the graduated brackets, the $4,500 combined personal exemption and the federal-income-tax deduction with a flat 3% rate and a $12,500 single standard deduction. That deduction is indexed for inflation from 2026, so it is $12,835 in 2026. The reference taxes $23,006.18 AGI − $12,835 = $10,171.18 at 3%, which gives $305.14. Most models used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $315.18. The others applied the repealed pre-2025 exemptions and brackets, wrongly took the ESI premiums out of AGI, stacked extra deductions on top, or claimed Louisiana has no income tax.", + "new": "Louisiana's 2025 reform (Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session) replaced the graduated brackets and the $4,500 combined personal exemption with a flat 3% rate and a $12,500 single standard deduction for 2025. R.S. 47:294(B) raises it by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. The reference taxes $23,006.18 AGI − $12,835 = $10,171.18 at 3%, which gives $305.14. Before the reference freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement income exemption, which R.S. 47:44.1 indexes in the same words (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $305.05, within the $1 tolerance for an exact match. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that $12,875, which it called inflation-adjusted, on the $23,006 AGI that the prompt's $26,006 of wages and the $3,000 capital-loss limit give; with $12,875 the engine gives $303.94. Of the 46 models, 19 used 2025's $12,500 and answered $315.18 or $315; three more reached about $315 that way and then submitted $446 to $496, and two paired $12,500 with the repealed 1.85% rate or the $4,500 exemption. Ten more applied repealed rules (a personal exemption, the 1.85%/3.5% brackets or a deduction for federal income tax), four of them after taking the $8,389 ESI premiums out of AGI. Seven answered $0, saying Louisiana has no income tax, that PolicyEngine does not model it, or that deductions or low income leave nothing to tax. The rest gave a figure with no derivation, subtracted an unstated $15,400, or gave no answer." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "The old text said the model 'correctly inflation-indexed the standard deduction but overstated it as $12,875', and that it 'rounded AGI down to $23,006'. $12,875 is the Department of Revenue's provisional withholding and estimated-tax amount ($12,500 x 1.03). The model rounded nothing: the prompt states wages as $26,006 (policybench/prompts.py describe_person formats employment_income with ',.0f'), so $23,006 is the only AGI the stated facts give, and all 46 explanations use it. The $40 deduction difference accounts for $1.20 of the $1.21 gap; the unstated $0.18 of wages ($0.0053 of tax) and rounding the $305.135 reference to the cent make up the last cent. The row stays a model error ($1.21 is outside the $1 tolerance).", + "old": "It correctly inflation-indexed the standard deduction but overstated it as $12,875 instead of $12,835. It also rounded AGI down to $23,006, which understated taxable income at $10,131 instead of $10,171.18 and gave $303.93 instead of $305.14.", + "new": "It subtracted a $12,875 standard deduction, which it called inflation-adjusted, from a $23,006 AGI and taxed the remaining $10,131 at 3%, for $303.93. $12,875 is the provisional amount in the Department of Revenue's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet; the reference's $12,835 leaves $10,171.18 of the engine's $23,006.18 AGI taxable and $305.14 of tax. The $40 larger deduction accounts for $1.20 of the $1.21 gap. The rest comes from the $0.18 of wages that the prompt's $26,006 leaves out and from rounding to the cent; with $12,875 the engine gives $303.94." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "The old text said that 'From 2025 both were replaced by a single standard deduction', dating the end of the federal income tax deduction to 2025; policyengine-us ends it after 2021 (deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml, citing Acts 2021, No. 39), as the scenario_051 row for this model and the rewritten scenario_077 case note say. It also called the model's method the 'pre-2025 structure', though the model taxed at the post-2025 flat 3%. The new text states the model's own figures ($4,500, $801, $17,705, $531) and the reference's.", + "old": "It used Louisiana's repealed pre-2025 structure: a $4,500 personal exemption plus a deduction for federal income tax paid, which gave $17,705 of taxable income. From 2025 both were replaced by a single standard deduction ($12,835 in 2026), leaving $10,171.18 taxable at 3%.", + "new": "It subtracted a $4,500 personal exemption and an $801 deduction for federal income tax paid from the $23,006 AGI, which left $17,705 taxable at 3% and gave $531. Louisiana ended the federal income tax deduction after 2021, and from 2025 a single standard deduction ($12,835 in 2026) replaced the exemption, leaving $10,171.18 taxable at 3% and $305.14 of tax." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "'Louisiana repealed both of these for 2025+' dates the repeal of whatever the model meant by 'federal-based deductions' to 2025. If it meant the federal income tax deduction, policyengine-us ends that after 2021; if it meant the federal-based itemized deduction (excess medical expenses over the federal standard deduction), the engine still has it in 2026. The replacement sentence is true under either reading: this household's Louisiana taxable income is its AGI less the standard deduction alone, and the flat-rate branch applies no exemption. Only that sentence changes.", + "old": "It reached about $315 using the unindexed $12,500 deduction and then raised it to $448 by citing 'federal-based deductions' and 'personal exemption credits'. Louisiana repealed both of these for 2025+, and they would lower the tax, not raise it. The correct base is $23,006.18 − $12,835 at 3%.", + "new": "It reached about $315 using the unindexed $12,500 deduction and then raised it to $448 by citing 'federal-based deductions' and 'personal exemption credits'. Neither applies to this household in 2026, and both would lower the tax, not raise it. The correct base is $23,006.18 − $12,835 at 3%." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "'which is roughly a federal-style standard deduction' attributes the model's $15,400 to a federal amount with no support: the model named no amount, and the engine's federal single standard deduction is $14,600 (2024), $15,750 (2025) and $16,100 (2026). The new sentence says only what the model wrote. Only that sentence changes.", + "old": "Its taxable base of $7,606 means it subtracted $15,400 from the $23,006 AGI, which is roughly a federal-style standard deduction. Louisiana's 2026 single standard deduction is $12,835, which leaves $10,171.18 taxable at 3%.", + "new": "Its taxable base of $7,606 means it subtracted $15,400 from the $23,006 AGI, which it called the standard deduction without stating the amount. Louisiana's 2026 single standard deduction is $12,835, which leaves $10,171.18 taxable at 3%." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_077", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "explanation", + "group": "louisiana", + "reason": "The old explanation said taxable income was 'subject to Louisiana's tax brackets and rates'. For 2026 policyengine-us applies a single flat rate (la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits returns la_taxable_income x main.flat.rate when main.flat.applies, true from 2025, rate 0.03), and the graduated brackets are the repealed schedule many models used. Only that sentence changes.", + "old": "PolicyEngine calculated Louisiana state income tax before refundable credits at $305.14 for this single adult in Louisiana with approximately $18,039 household income. The calculation began with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $23,006.18, from which PolicyEngine subtracted Louisiana's standard deduction of $12,835 to arrive at a taxable income of $10,171.18. This taxable income was then subject to Louisiana's tax brackets and rates, resulting in the final tax liability of $305.14 before any refundable credits are applied. All other states' income tax calculations returned zero, confirming that only Louisiana's tax applied to this household.", + "new": "PolicyEngine calculated Louisiana state income tax before refundable credits at $305.14 for this single adult in Louisiana with approximately $18,039 household income. The calculation began with an adjusted gross income (AGI) of $23,006.18, from which PolicyEngine subtracted Louisiana's standard deduction of $12,835 to arrive at a taxable income of $10,171.18. Louisiana's flat 3% rate on that taxable income gives $305.14, and no nonrefundable credit applies, so tax before refundable credits is also $305.14. All other states' income tax calculations returned zero, confirming that only Louisiana's tax applied to this household." + } + ] +} diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/design.md b/docs/release_20261006/design.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f1e6b614 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/design.md @@ -0,0 +1,109 @@ +# Release dashboard-data-20261006 + +This release applies Max's rulings of 2026-10-05 to release `dashboard-data-20260930`. No model, answer, reference value or serving row changes. The board snapshot stays "Snapshot 2026-09-30". + +| Ruling | Change | Evidence | +|---|---|---| +| d963 | Exclude federal income tax before refundable credits for scenario_022 (CA), scenario_081 (MA) and scenario_114 (VA). Their SALT deduction rests on policyengine-us's formula estimate of state income tax withheld, which no prompt states. | `reference_audit/2026-10-05/` (PR #191) | +| d974 | Exclude scenario_114's Virginia income tax before refundable credits. Its medical deduction counts a modeled Medicare Part B premium, which no prompt states. | `reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/` (PR #193) | +| d972 | Exclude payroll_tax for scenario_032 (MN), 043 (CO), 081 (MA) and 082 (NY). Each counts the employee share of a state paid-leave premium that the employer may deduct but need not. Do not regenerate. | `reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/` (PR #194) | +| d831 | Date the model response window from the last answer: 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29. | `scripts/freeze_snapshot.py` `model_response_window` (PR #188) | +| Louisiana (PR #192) | Keep scenario_051 and scenario_077 at the $12,835 deduction. | `reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/` | + +PR #197's rewrites of scenario_031's Medicaid annotations ship with this release's re-export. + +PR #192's documentation sentence was held under d994 when this release was built. Applied as written, it would change five scored references held under the 2026-09-22 conventions: +- Idaho's zero-rate threshold (scenario_076); +- SNAP's FY2027 standard deduction for households of four or more (scenario_008, scenario_038 and scenario_109); +- Maryland's 2026 return deduction under the IRS reading (scenario_068). + +This release retains the existing convention and every reference value, and the wording-only Louisiana case-note rewrites ship. Max ruled d994 on 2026-10-06, after the release was built: the convention stays as written, so the sentence is not adopted and the five references keep their values, and both Louisiana outputs are excluded in the release after this one (`reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md`). + +## Inputs + +- `spec.json`. It holds: + - the base (tag, commit 8b4c0ca1, payload sha256 and bytes); + - the three proposal files and the outputs each ruling names; + - six edits to records, each with its source; + - the rule and derivation text; + - the eight adjudications' subtypes and reasoning; + - the judge-evidence waves. +- `annotation_rewrites.json`: whole-field rewrites of annotation text, as in #197's `rewrites.json`. Each holds a row's whole old and whole new text. They are applied before the adjudications, which append their sentence to the excluded case notes. +- The base: release 20260930's archived stage (`results/local/release-batch/base-20260930`), which the driver only reads, and git at the base commit. + +## Commands + +``` +WT=$PWD; PY=$WT/.venv/bin/python; export OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 +$PY scripts/release_20261006.py prepare --base-stage results/local/release-batch/base-20260930 --stage results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006 +$PY scripts/release_20261006.py export --stage results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006 +$PY scripts/release_20261006.py freeze --stage results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006 --dry-run +$PY scripts/release_20261006.py freeze --stage results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006 +PYTHONPATH=$WT $PY scripts/sensitivity_by_variable.py +PYTHONPATH=$WT $PY scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py --release dashboard-data-20261006 +PYTHONPATH=$WT $PY paper/render_paper.py +$PY scripts/freeze_snapshot.py --rendered-only +``` + +`prepare` also rewrites `reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json`, the judge evidence the adjudication tests read. + +## Gates + +**prepare** +- The base stage's payload is release 20260930's. +- Its references, predictions, exclusions and annotations equal the base commit's. +- The committed annotations are release 20260930's plus #197's ledger, and the working tree is HEAD's. +- The proposal files hold exactly the ruled outputs. Each record is a 2026-10-05 developer unlisted-input record on policyengine-us 2.15.17. +- No ruled output is already excluded or adjudicated. Each edit fits exactly once. +- The adjudications and exclusions name the same outputs. +- Every adjudication keeps its case's sha256-bound verdict. +- The annotation files differ from release 20260930's only in the eight cases' classes and the reworded outputs' text. + +**export** +- Two exports of the stage give the same bytes. +- The payload has release 20260930's sections, roster and stable model fields: condition, cost, tokens, latency and accuracy. +- Every model is scored on the same 1,920 outputs. +- The exclusions are the base's plus the eight. +- Each changed cell field is one the release allows. +- **Scope check:** with release 20260930's exclusion record substituted, the staged bundle reproduces release 20260930's modelStats, programStats, heatmap and globalWeights exactly. So every score change comes from the eight records. + +**freeze** +- The receipt binds the payload, spec, rewrites, evidence and every staged input. +- The response window is derived from the predictions, before anything is written. +- The working tree is HEAD in every file the freeze touches. +- Afterwards, these are release 20260930's byte for byte: + - the references, the scenarios and their sidecars; + - the predictions; + - the serving configuration. +- The annotations and exclusions are the staged ones. +- The manifest changes only in the paths `MANIFEST_CHANGES` lists. + +## Invariants (tests/test_release_20261006.py) + +1. The frozen exclusion record is `build_exclusions(release 20260930's record, spec)`, byte for byte: the base records unchanged except the six edits, plus the eight ruled records before the audit's trailing scenario_023 record. +2. The adjudication record is release 20260930's plus eight entries. Each keeps the judge verdict the evidence file binds, and its reference basis is its record's unlisted input. +3. The committed annotation files rebuild byte for byte from release 20260930's: #197's ledger, then the release rewrites, then every adjudication. +4. References and predictions are release 20260930's. +5. Every model is scored on 1,920 outputs. +6. An independent re-aggregation of the payload's own rows reproduces every model's published exact rate. With the eight outputs scored again, it reproduces release 20260930's. +7. Properties (Hypothesis): + - rewrites move only their own fields, and applying them twice changes nothing; + - a rewrite of text the field does not hold is refused; + - manifest leaf paths are empty exactly when two manifests are equal, and symmetric; + - a change under an allowed prefix is never a problem; + - the version description counts the records it is given. + +## Publish order + +1. Freeze, render, run the tests. +2. Check that the tag is free. +3. `gh release create dashboard-data-20261006 --target main --latest=false`, with `dashboard-data.json` (the staged `data-board46.json`) and `predictions.csv.gz` (the staged gzip, byte-identical to the frozen one). Download the asset and compare its sha256 with `app/src/data.artifact.json`. +4. Open the PR. CI's app job and Vercel download the asset. +5. Wait for green CI and an independent review, then squash-merge with `--match-head-commit`. +6. `gh release edit dashboard-data-20261006 --latest`. Then `gh api repos/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/latest` must name it. +7. Check prod on policybench.org: + - the snapshot chip and "46 Models"; + - the leaderboard scores and "1,920" scored outputs; + - the excluded-outputs sentence; + - /paper's response window (September 29); + - the release note's page. diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/louisiana.json b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/louisiana.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e6fdb42c --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/louisiana.json @@ -0,0 +1,852 @@ +[ + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_051|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|case_annotation", + "problem": "States 'is inflation-indexed starting in 2026, which gives $12,835 for the 2026 tax year' with no source (no Louisiana publication states $12,835), and omits the Department's $12,838 and the $12,875 withholding amount. Its model summary says every model outside the $830.40 group used repealed pre-2025 law; four of them computed $830.40 and then submitted another figure, and eight others claimed no tax, gave no derivation or gave no answer.", + "evidence": { + "readme": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md", + "quotes": [ + "294(B): from January 1, 2026, the prior year's amount is multiplied by \"the percentage increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year\".", + "CPI-U (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054: +2.677%, released 2026-01-13.", + "In the Notice of Intent's fiscal statement (Louisiana Register, 2026-02-20, p. 317), the LFO reads the statute as December to December, about 2.68%.", + "the Department's Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 puts the 2026 retirement income exemption at $12,324: $12,000 × 1.027. R.S. 47:44.1 indexes that exemption in the same words as 294(B).", + "Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019, dated 2026-09-28 ..., sets $12,838 single and separate ...: $12,500 × the 2.7% CPI-U multiplier", + "The Department of Revenue published $12,875 single and separate ... as the amounts it used in its 2026 withholding tables. That is $12,500 × 1.03, from the CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025.", + "The worksheet in the 2026 Form IT-540ESi instructions ... gives the same $12,875 as the \"Louisiana estimated standard deduction\".", + "No Louisiana publication states $12,835.", + "Recommendation 2: Replace \"inflation-indexed ... $12,835\" with the sourced chain ... For scenario_077, record that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that withholding amount." + ] + }, + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "scenario_051": { + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 40180.0, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 27345.0, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.3499755859375 + }, + "ldr_official": { + "la_agi": 40180.0, + "la_standard_deduction": 12838.0, + "la_taxable_income": 27342.0, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.260009765625 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "la_agi": 40180.0, + "la_standard_deduction": 12875.0, + "la_taxable_income": 27305.0, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 819.1499633789062 + }, + "hold_2025": { + "la_agi": 40180.0, + "la_standard_deduction": 12500.0, + "la_taxable_income": 27680.0, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 830.3999633789062 + } + }, + "cpi_u": { + "2024-09": 315.301, + "2024-12": 315.605, + "2024-annual": 313.689, + "2025-09": 324.8, + "2025-12": 324.054, + "2025-annual": 321.943 + }, + "candidates_single": { + "annual_average": 12828.908568677893, + "dec_dec_unrounded": 12834.635065984377, + "engine": 12835, + "hold_2025": 12500, + "ldr_official": 12838, + "ldr_published": 12875 + } + }, + "engine_code": { + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/standard/amount.yaml": "SINGLE: 2025-01-01: 12_500; 2026-01-01: 12_835 ('# 2026 amount applies the December-to-December 2025 CPI-U increase: 12,500 * (324.054 / 315.605), rounded to the nearest dollar.')", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/flat/rate.yaml": "values: 2025-01-01: 0.03 (reference RS 47:32)", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/by_filing_status/single.yaml": "'# Pre-2025 graduated brackets; replaced by flat 3% rate for 2025+ per Act 11.' Rates 0.0185 / 0.035 / 0.0425 from 2022.", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exemptions/personal.yaml": "SINGLE: 1983-01-01: 4_500; '# Personal exemptions repealed for 2025+ by Act 11 and replaced with standard deduction.'", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml": "2021-01-01: true; 2022-01-01: false (reference: '§298. Repealed by Acts 2021, No. 39')", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits.py": "if p.flat.applies: return income * p.flat.rate", + "policybench/analysis.py": "exact_amount_match(..., absolute_tolerance: float = 1.0)" + }, + "model_groups": { + "flat 3% less $12,500, answered $830.40 or $830": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "glm-5.3", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-5.6-terra", + "gpt-6-astra", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3", + "ox-alpha" + ], + "reached about $830 with $12,500, then submitted another figure": [ + "claude-fable-5", + "claude-opus-4.8", + "claude-opus-5", + "claude-sonnet-5" + ], + "repealed rules (1.85%/3.5% brackets, $4,500 exemption or deduction, federal income tax deduction)": [ + "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "gemini-3.7-flash", + "gemini-3.8-flash", + "grok-4.5", + "grok-build-0.1", + "minimax-m3", + "qwen-3.7-max" + ], + "no income tax or deductions offset it": [ + "claude-haiku-4.5", + "gpt-5.4-mini" + ], + "figure with no derivation": [ + "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "gpt-5.4-nano", + "grok-4.3", + "qwen3.8-max" + ], + "no answer": [ + "kimi-k2.6" + ] + }, + "esi_subtracted": [ + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "grok-build-0.1" + ], + "model_quotes": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 1020.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 uses a flat 3% income tax with a standard deduction of $12,500 for single filers. AGI = $40,000 wages + $180 capital gains = $40,180. Taxable income = $40,180 - $12,500 = $27,680. Tax = 3% x $27,680 = $830.40... Actual: 0.03 * 27680 = 830.4. Correcting: value = 1020" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 632.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 uses a flat 3% individual income tax rate after recent reform. Federal AGI = $40,000 wages + $180 capital gains = $40,180. Louisiana starts from federal AGI; for a single filer the 2026 standard deduction is $12,500. Taxable income = $40,180 - $12,500 = $27,680. Tax = 3% x $27,680 = $830.40. With the personal exemption combined into the larger standard deduction, applying the flat rate yields approximately $632 after the personal credit reduces liability. value = 632" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 812.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 flat 3% rate on income after the $12,500 standard deduction for single filers: (40,180 - 12,500) x 0.03 = about 830, reduced slightly by rounding of federal AGI adjustments, giving roughly 812. value = 812" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 1080.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax uses a flat rate of 3% on net taxable income (post-2024 reform), with a standard deduction of $12,500 for single filers. Head's taxable income: wages $40,000 + capital gains $180 = $40,180 gross income. Subtracting standard deduction of $12,500 gives taxable income of $27,680. Applying flat 3% rate: $27,680 * 0.03 = $830.40. Louisiana also allows a combined personal exemption/standard deduction that further reduces taxable income slightly, and after accounting for typical nonrefundable credits (e.g., no dependents, no itemized deductions claimed), the estimated state income tax before refundable credits is approximately $1,080. value = 1080" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 747.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax calculation for a single filer (Head, age 25). Gross wages: $40,000. Non-sch D capital gains: $180. Total gross income: $40,180. Louisiana allows a deduction for federal income taxes paid (we estimate federal AGI and tax separately). First, compute federal AGI: Gross wages $40,000 + capital gains $180 = $40,180. The employer-sponsored insurance premiums ($5,389) are pre-tax (excluded from wages already in gross wages figure as listed, but since they are listed as a separate item and the gross wages are $40,000, we treat wages as already net of employer premiums since the problem states 'gross wages and salaries' — actually, the ESI premiums paid by employee are typically pre-tax under Section 125, so they reduce federal taxable income but are already excluded from the $40,000 gross wages as reported on W-2. We take gross wages at face value: $40,000). Federal AGI = $40,180. Federal standard deduction for single 2026: $15,000 (estimated). Federal taxable income = $40,180 - $15,000 = $25,180. Federal tax: 10% on first $11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on ($25,180 - $11,925) = 12% × $13,255 = $1,590.60; Total federal tax = $2,783.10. Louisiana deduction for federal taxes paid = $2,783. Louisiana gross income = $40,180. Louisiana standard deduction (single) = $4,500. Louisiana personal exemption (single) = $4,500. Louisiana taxable income = $40,180 - $2,783 (fed tax deduction) - $4,500 (standard deduction) - $4,500 (personal exemption) = $28,397. Louisiana 2026 tax rate structure (as of recent law): 1.85% on first $12,500 = $231.25; 3.5% on next $37,500 ($12,501–$50,000), applied to $28,397 - $12,500 = $15,897 → $15,897 × 3.5% = $556.40; Total LA tax = $231.25 + $556.40 = $787.65. Louisiana nonrefundable credits: personal exemption credit is embedded in the exemption above. No other credits listed. Rounding: $788. However, Louisiana updated its tax structure for 2025+ to a flat 3% rate (Act 1 of 2024 special session), effective Jan 1, 2025. Under the new flat 3% rate: Louisiana taxable income = $40,180 - $2,783 (federal tax deduction) - $12,500 (standard deduction for single, new law) = $24,897. Tax = $24,897 × 3% = $746.91 ≈ $747. But also Louisiana eliminated the personal exemption under the new flat tax law and increased the standard deduction. Under Act 1 (2024): standard deduction for single = $12,500; personal exemption eliminated; federal income tax deduction retained; flat rate 3%. Louisiana taxable income = $40,180 - $2,783 - $12,500 = $24,897. Tax = $24,897 × 0.03 = $746.91. No nonrefundable credits apply beyond what's already computed. State income tax before refundable credits = $747. value = 747" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 1287.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana flat tax 4.25% on taxable income (federal AGI $34,791 minus personal exemption $4,500 = $30,291). Tax = $30,291 * 0.0425 = $1,287.37 rounded to $1,287. value = 1287" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 762.19, + "explanation": "Louisiana allows a deduction for federal income taxes paid ($2,621.15) and a standard/personal exemption of $4,500. This leaves $27,669.85 in taxable income. The tax is 1.85% on the first $12,500 ($231.25) and 3.5% on the remaining $15,169.85 ($530.94), totaling $762.19. value = 762.19" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 1208.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana has no state income tax on wages (Louisiana personal income tax was fully eliminated beginning 2026 for individual income, but Louisiana still has some structure; for 2026 LA continues with a flat rate with modifications). For 2026, Louisiana individual income tax: gross wages $40,000, LA standard deduction $4,500, taxable income $35,500. Louisiana 2026 rate is 3% flat. Tax = $35,500 * 0.03 = $1,065. value = 1208" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 675.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana starts from federal AGI then subtracts the federal standard deduction, producing LA taxable income of approximately 25180. LA rates: 1.85% on first 12500 equals 231.25 plus 3.5% on the remaining 12680 equals 443.80 for total state tax of 675 before any credits. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 675" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 573.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 tax is calculated on taxable income. Federal AGI is $40,000 wages + $180 capital gains = $40,180. Subtracting the standard deduction for a single filer ($15,750 for 2026 estimated) gives $24,430. Louisiana applies a personal exemption of $4,500 for single filers, leaving Louisiana taxable income of approximately $19,930. Applying 2026 Louisiana rates (1.75% on first $12,500 = $218.75; 3.55% on remaining $7,430 = $263.77) gives a tax liability near $482.52 before credits. With no nonrefundable credits, the state income tax before refundable credits is approximately $573. value = 573.0" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana has no state individual income tax. The state does not impose a tax on wages, salaries, or other forms of income. Therefore, the state income tax before refundable credits is zero. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax is fully offset here by the low tax base and applicable standard deduction/exemptions, and no state credits are indicated. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 724.0, + "explanation": "Calculated based on Louisiana's progressive individual income tax rates applied to taxable income after standard deduction. value = 724" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 781.0, + "explanation": "For Louisiana in 2026 on $40,000 wages (and small capital gains), after applying the standard nonrefundable adjustments and then computing nonrefundable tax liability before any refundable credits, the estimated state income tax is 781 for the year; value = 781" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 680.0, + "explanation": "LA state income tax after deductions and credits on $40180 income. value = 680" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 1324.8, + "explanation": "Louisiana applies a flat rate to taxable wages after deductions, producing a state income tax liability of $1,324.80 before refundable credits. value = 1324.8" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 1115.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax on the taxable income of a single filer with $40,000 in wages and $180 in capital gains. value = 1115" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "explanation": null + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 830.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana uses a flat 3% rate in 2026. Taxable income = federal AGI $40,180 minus LA single standard deduction $12,500 = $27,680. Tax = 3% × $27,680 = $830.40, rounded to $830. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 830" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 830.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana uses a 3% flat individual income tax. Federal AGI of $40,180 minus the $12,500 single standard deduction leaves $27,680 of Louisiana taxable income, and 3% of that is $830.40, rounded to $830. No nonrefundable state credits apply. value = 830" + } + ], + "kept_verbatim": "The 2026-09-22 developer adjudication sentence (from ' Developer adjudication (' to the end); policybench/adjudications.py _strip_adjudication_sentence strips from that marker and re-appends, so keeping it is idempotent." + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$12,500 (2025)", + "source": "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/standard/amount.yaml SINGLE 2025-01-01" + }, + { + "figure": "2.68%", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json cpi_u: 324.054/315.605 - 1 = 0.02677" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,835", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json baseline la_standard_deduction 12835.0; 12,500 x 1.0268 = 12,835.00" + }, + { + "figure": "$40,180 AGI, $27,345 taxable, $820.35", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_051 baseline la_agi 40180.0, la_taxable_income 27345.0, tax 820.3499755859375" + }, + { + "figure": "2.7% / $12,838", + "source": "README (RIB 26-019); reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json candidates_single.ldr_official 12838; 12,500 x 1.027 = 12,837.50" + }, + { + "figure": "$820.26", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_051 ldr_official tax 820.260009765625" + }, + { + "figure": "within the $1 tolerance", + "source": "|820.35 - 820.26| = 0.09 < 1.0 (policybench/analysis.py absolute_tolerance=1.0)" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,875 / $819.15", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json candidates_single.ldr_published 12875; scenario_051 ldr_published tax 819.1499633789062" + }, + { + "figure": "21 of 46 at $830.40 or $830", + "source": "predictions.csv.gz: 19 at 830.4, grok-4.6 and inkling at 830.0 (list in model_groups)" + }, + { + "figure": "four more, $632 to $1,080", + "source": "claude-opus-4.8 632, claude-opus-5 812, claude-fable-5 1020, claude-sonnet-5 1080; each explanation computes 12,500-based ~830" + }, + { + "figure": "13 of the other 21 used repealed rules", + "source": "model_groups; each explanation names 1.85%/3.5% brackets, a $4,500 exemption/deduction or a federal income tax deduction (deepseek-v4-pro: 4.25% plus $4,500 exemption)" + }, + { + "figure": "six subtracted the ESI premiums", + "source": "explanations start from $34,791 (= 40,180 - 5,389.28) or reach $27,669.85 = 34,791 - 2,621.15 - 4,500 (gemini-3.5-flash)" + }, + { + "figure": "remaining eight", + "source": "claude-haiku-4.5 (no income tax), gpt-5.4-mini (fully offset), 5 with no derivation, kimi-k2.6 (no value)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|case_annotation", + "problem": "States 'That deduction is indexed for inflation from 2026, so it is $12,835 in 2026' with no source, omits the Department's $12,838 and the $12,875 withholding amount GPT-6 Astra used, says the 2025 reform replaced the federal income tax deduction (the engine ends it after 2021), and says 'Most models used the unindexed $12,500 deduction and got $315.18' (19 of 46 answered $315.18 or $315). Revised after review: the first draft said Astra worked 'on AGI rounded to $23,006'; the model took $23,006 from the prompt's stated $26,006 of wages less the $3,000 capital-loss limit, so the new text says that.", + "evidence": { + "readme": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md", + "quotes": [ + "294(B): from January 1, 2026, the prior year's amount is multiplied by \"the percentage increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year\".", + "CPI-U (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054: +2.677%, released 2026-01-13.", + "In the Notice of Intent's fiscal statement (Louisiana Register, 2026-02-20, p. 317), the LFO reads the statute as December to December, about 2.68%.", + "the Department's Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 puts the 2026 retirement income exemption at $12,324: $12,000 × 1.027. R.S. 47:44.1 indexes that exemption in the same words as 294(B).", + "Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019, dated 2026-09-28 ..., sets $12,838 single and separate ...: $12,500 × the 2.7% CPI-U multiplier", + "The Department of Revenue published $12,875 single and separate ... as the amounts it used in its 2026 withholding tables. That is $12,500 × 1.03, from the CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025.", + "The worksheet in the 2026 Form IT-540ESi instructions ... gives the same $12,875 as the \"Louisiana estimated standard deduction\".", + "No Louisiana publication states $12,835.", + "Recommendation 2: Replace \"inflation-indexed ... $12,835\" with the sourced chain ... For scenario_077, record that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that withholding amount." + ] + }, + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "scenario_077": { + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10171.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + }, + "ldr_official": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12838.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10168.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.0452575683594 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12875.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10131.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 303.9352722167969 + }, + "hold_2025": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12500.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10506.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 315.1852722167969 + } + } + }, + "engine_code": { + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/standard/amount.yaml": "SINGLE: 2025-01-01: 12_500; 2026-01-01: 12_835 ('# 2026 amount applies the December-to-December 2025 CPI-U increase: 12,500 * (324.054 / 315.605), rounded to the nearest dollar.')", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/flat/rate.yaml": "values: 2025-01-01: 0.03 (reference RS 47:32)", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/by_filing_status/single.yaml": "'# Pre-2025 graduated brackets; replaced by flat 3% rate for 2025+ per Act 11.' Rates 0.0185 / 0.035 / 0.0425 from 2022.", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exemptions/personal.yaml": "SINGLE: 1983-01-01: 4_500; '# Personal exemptions repealed for 2025+ by Act 11 and replaced with standard deduction.'", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml": "2021-01-01: true; 2022-01-01: false (reference: '§298. Repealed by Acts 2021, No. 39')", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits.py": "if p.flat.applies: return income * p.flat.rate", + "policybench/analysis.py": "exact_amount_match(..., absolute_tolerance: float = 1.0)" + }, + "model_groups": { + "$12,500 at 3%, answered $315.18 or $315": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-4.8", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3" + ], + "reached about $315 with $12,500, then submitted $446 to $496": [ + "claude-fable-5", + "claude-opus-5", + "claude-sonnet-5" + ], + "$12,500 with the 1.85% rate or the $4,500 exemption": [ + "glm-5.3", + "gpt-5.6-terra" + ], + "$12,875": [ + "gpt-6-astra" + ], + "repealed rules (personal exemption, 1.85%/3.5% brackets, federal income tax deduction)": [ + "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash", + "gemini-3.7-flash", + "grok-4.5", + "grok-build-0.1", + "ox-alpha", + "qwen-3.7-max" + ], + "answered $0": [ + "claude-haiku-4.5", + "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "gemini-3.8-flash", + "gpt-5.4-mini", + "gpt-5.4-nano", + "grok-4.3", + "minimax-m3" + ], + "figure with no derivation": [ + "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "qwen3.8-max" + ], + "unstated $15,400 deduction": [ + "deepseek-v4-flash-0731" + ], + "no answer": [ + "kimi-k2.6" + ] + }, + "esi_subtracted": [ + "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash", + "grok-build-0.1" + ], + "model_quotes": [ + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 303.93, + "explanation": "Louisiana AGI is $23,006; subtracting the inflation-adjusted $12,875 single standard deduction leaves $10,131 taxable at 3%, with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 303.93" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 496.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 uses a flat 3% income tax with a $12,500 standard deduction for single filers. Federal AGI = $26,006 wages + capital losses capped at -$3,000 = $23,006. LA taxable income = $23,006 - $12,500 = $10,506. Tax = 3% x $10,506 = $315... adjusted: LA also allows an exemption; using standard deduction only, tax = 0.03 x 10,506 = 315.18, but including no other credits the LA income tax before refundable credits is approximately $496 after accounting for the deduction structure. value = 496" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 446.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 flat 3% rate on federal AGI-based income of about $23,006 less the $12,500 standard exemption for single filers = ~$10,500 taxable, times 3% = about $315; accounting for capital-loss treatment and rounding in PolicyEngine, tax is about $446. value = 446" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 448.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax: Federal AGI starts with wages $26,006 less capital losses (short-term -$4, long-term -$7,964, but capital losses limited to $3,000 net deduction per federal rules) giving AGI ~$23,006. Louisiana uses a flat rate structure for 2026 (post-reform flat 3% rate on net income after standard deduction ~$12,500 for single filer). Taxable income ≈ $23,006 - $12,500 standard deduction ≈ $10,506, taxed at 3% ≈ $315, plus adjustments for federal-based deductions bring estimate to approximately $448 after standard deductions and personal exemption credits. value = 448" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 194.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana starts from federal AGI of $23,006, less the Louisiana single standard deduction of $12,500, giving taxable income of $10,506. This is taxed at Louisiana's bottom 1.85% rate: 0.0185 x 10,506 = about $194. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 194" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 180.18, + "explanation": "Louisiana adjusted income of 23006 after the allowable capital-loss deduction, less the 12500 single standard deduction and 4500 personal exemption, leaves 6006 taxed at Louisiana's 3 percent flat rate. value = 180.18" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 531.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax computation: Gross wages = $26,006. Capital gains: long-term = -$7,964, short-term = -$4; net capital gain/loss = -$7,968 (losses limited to -$3,000 for federal/state purposes, but LA follows federal AGI). Federal AGI: wages $26,006 + capital losses capped at -$3,000 = $23,006. Louisiana uses federal AGI as starting point. LA personal exemption for single filer = $4,500. Louisiana also allows deduction for federal income tax paid; federal tax on ~$23,006 AGI (standard deduction $15,000, taxable income ~$8,006, federal tax ~$801). LA taxable income = $23,006 - $4,500 (personal exemption) - $801 (federal tax deduction) = $17,705. LA 2026 flat income tax rate is 3% (Act 5 of 2024 special session reduced rate to 3% effective 2025). LA tax = $17,705 × 3% = $531.15. LA nonrefundable credits: none identified. However, employer-sponsored insurance premiums of $8,389 are pre-tax (excluded from wages already). Rechecking: wages $26,006 are gross including ESI premiums already excluded at federal level (Box 1 W-2). Net capital loss deduction on LA return: LA follows federal capital loss limitation of -$3,000. Federal AGI = $26,006 - $3,000 = $23,006. Federal taxable income = $23,006 - $15,000 (standard deduction) = $8,006. Federal income tax = 10% × $8,006 = $800.60 ≈ $801. LA AGI = $23,006. LA deductions: personal exemption $4,500 + federal tax paid $801 = $5,301. LA taxable income = $23,006 - $5,301 = $17,705. LA tax at 3% = $531.15. No nonrefundable credits identified. State income tax before refundable credits = $531. Rounding to nearest dollar: $531. value = 531" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 379.66, + "explanation": "Louisiana taxable income = $23,006 federal AGI - $765.60 federal income tax - $4,500 LA standard deduction - $1,000 personal exemption = $16,740.40; tax = 1.85% of $12,500 plus 3.5% of $4,240.40 = $379.66. value = 379.66" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 187.16, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax is calculated by taking the federal adjusted gross income (AGI) of $14,617 (wages minus pre-tax premiums and the capital loss limit), subtracting a $4,500 personal exemption/standard deduction for a single filer, leaving a taxable income of $10,117. Applying the 1.85% tax rate for the first $12,500 results in a tax liability of $187.16. value = 187.16" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 104.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana AGI is $14,617. Subtracting the state standard deduction ($4,500) and personal exemption ($4,500) for a single filer leaves $5,617 in state taxable income. Taxed at the lowest LA bracket of 1.85%, the tax is $104. value = 104" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 187.16, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax is calculated on the federal AGI of $14,617. After subtracting the combined standard deduction and personal exemption of $4,500 for a single filer, the taxable income is $10,117. Applying the lowest bracket rate of 1.85% yields a state income tax of $187.16. value = 187.16" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 152.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax on taxable income after state standard deduction and personal exemption yields $130.value = 130" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 441.0, + "explanation": "LA starts from federal AGI of 23006 less single exemption of 4500 for taxable income of 18506. Tax is 1.85% on first 12500 (231) plus 3.5% on remaining 6006 (210), totaling 441 after nonrefundable credits of zero. value = 441" + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 187.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana AGI is $14,617. Louisiana standard deduction for single is $4,500. Louisiana taxable income $10,117. Louisiana tax rate 1.85% on income under $12,500 gives tax of $187. No nonrefundable credits. value = 187" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 72.18, + "explanation": "Louisiana's flat 3% tax applies to federal AGI $23,006 less the federal standard deduction $16,100 and the $4,500 personal exemption, leaving LA taxable income $2,406; tax = 3% x $2,406 = $72.18, with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 72.18" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 267.58, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax calculation: Federal AGI = $26,006 (wages) + (-$7,964) (LTCG) + (-$4) (STCG) = $18,038. Louisiana does not conform to the federal standard deduction increase; Louisiana standard deduction is the applicable amount. LA uses 2025+ brackets: 1.85% on first $12,500, 3.5% on $12,500–$50,000 of taxable income. After the LA standard deduction, LA taxable income ≈ $12,000 (head, single-like filing). Tax = 1.85% × $12,000 ≈ $222. With wage income of $26,006 hourly, and standard exemption, LA taxable income ≈ $30,200 after adding back and subtracting applicable items. Using LA 2026 tax rate of 1.85% on first $25,000 and 3.5% above: with LA taxable income ≈ $30,200, tax = 1.85% × $25,000 + 3.5% × $5,200 = $462.50 + $182 = $644.50, minus nonrefundable credits. Louisiana personal exemption for 1 person = $4,500. LA taxable income = $26,006 - $4,500 - state standard deduction. LA standard deduction for single is $0 in recent years (LA eliminated it). So LA taxable income = $26,006 - $4,500 = $21,506. But capital losses reduce AGI. LA starts with federal AGI = $18,038. LA personal exemption = $4,500. LA taxable income = $18,038 - $4,500 = $13,538. Tax = 1.85% × $12,500 + 3.5% × $1,038 = $231.25 + $36.33 = $267.58. With LA tax year 2026 rates (flat 1.85% proposed but not enacted, use graduated): 1.85% on first $12,500 = $231.25, 3.5% on next portion. LA taxable income = $13,538. Tax = $231.25 + 3.5% × $1,038 = $231.25 + $36.33 = $267.58. LA EIC is refundable so not deducted here. Adding back: LA did not historically allow capital loss deductions the same way, so LA addback of capital losses. State taxable income with federal AGI starting point = $18,038. Personal exemption $4,500. Taxable = $13,538. Tax at 2026 rates: LA reduced rates to 1.85%/4.25% starting 2022. Graduated: 1.85% × $12,500 + 4.25% × $1,038 = $231.25 + $44.12 = $275.37. But with 2025+ further reductions to 1.85%/3.5%: $231.25 + $36.33 = $267.58. Applying further 2026 rate adjustments (3.25% on second bracket): $231.25 + $33.74 = $264.99. Given uncertainty, using 2026 top rate of 3.5%: value = $267.58. Recalculating with more precision: LA taxable income $13,538, bracket 1 tax = $12,500 × 0.0185 = $231.25, bracket 2 tax = $1,038 × 0.035 = $36.33, total = $267.58. Rounding: value = 267.58" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana has no state income tax. For the 2026 tax year, Louisiana residents have no state individual income tax liability. Therefore, state income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits is $0. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana has no state income tax. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana individual income tax is not modeled in PolicyEngine, resulting in $0. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana individual income tax is zero here because the head’s taxable income after the state standard deduction and exemption is below the lowest-bracket threshold. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Estimated Louisiana state income tax after nonrefundable credits but before refundable credits is assumed to be 0 because wage income is low and no specific nonrefundable credit amounts are provided that would still leave a positive tax after standard treatment. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana taxable income after standard deduction and exemptions is zero or negative at this income level. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax before refundable credits is $0.00 after deductions and exemptions. value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 158.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana state income tax is applied to taxable income after standard deductions and exemptions for the 2026 tax year. value = 158" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 347.24, + "explanation": "Louisiana income tax is estimated at $347.24 on the household's Louisiana taxable income after the standard deduction and the allowed capital-loss limitation. value = 347.24" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 228.18, + "explanation": "Louisiana flat 3% individual income tax applied to taxable base of $7,606 (AGI $23,006 less standard deduction), yielding 0.03 x 7,606 = $228.18. value = 228.18" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "explanation": null + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 315.18, + "explanation": "Louisiana individual income tax on AGI of $23,006 after the state combined personal exemption and standard deduction is $315.18. value = 315.18" + } + ] + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$4,500 combined personal exemption (pre-2025)", + "source": "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exemptions/personal.yaml SINGLE 4_500, repealed for 2025+ by Act 11 (comment)" + }, + { + "figure": "flat 3% from 2025", + "source": "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/flat/rate.yaml 2025-01-01: 0.03" + }, + { + "figure": "2.68% / $12,835", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json cpi_u ratio 0.02677; baseline la_standard_deduction 12835.0" + }, + { + "figure": "$23,006.18 AGI, $10,171.18 taxable, $305.14", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline la_agi 23006.17578125, la_taxable_income 10171.17578125, tax 305.13525390625" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,838 / $305.05", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 ldr_official tax 305.0452575683594; |305.14-305.05| = 0.09 < 1" + }, + { + "figure": "GPT-6 Astra $303.93 with $12,875 on $23,006", + "source": "predictions.csv.gz gpt-6-astra explanation: 'Louisiana AGI is $23,006; subtracting the inflation-adjusted $12,875 single standard deduction leaves $10,131 taxable at 3% ... value = 303.93'" + }, + { + "figure": "$23,006 AGI from the prompt's $26,006 of wages and the $3,000 capital-loss limit", + "source": "describe_household(scenario_077) renders 'gross wages and salaries: $26,006', 'long-term capital gains: $-7,964', 'short-term capital gains: $-4'; scenarios.csv employment_income 26006.17578125; 26,006 - 3,000 = 23,006; engine la_agi 23006.17578125 = 26,006.17578125 - 3,000" + }, + { + "figure": "$303.94 with $12,875", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 ldr_published tax 303.9352722167969" + }, + { + "figure": "19 of 46 at $315.18 or $315", + "source": "predictions.csv.gz: 15 at 315.18, 4 at 315.0 (claude-opus-4.7, claude-opus-4.8, grok-4.6, inkling)" + }, + { + "figure": "three more, $446 to $496", + "source": "claude-opus-5 446, claude-sonnet-5 448, claude-fable-5 496; each explanation computes ~$315 from $12,500 first" + }, + { + "figure": "two paired $12,500 with 1.85% or $4,500", + "source": "glm-5.3 ('taxed at Louisiana's bottom 1.85% rate', 194); gpt-5.6-terra ('12500 single standard deduction and 4500 personal exemption', 180.18)" + }, + { + "figure": "ten more applied repealed rules; four took $8,389 ESI out of AGI", + "source": "model_groups; ESI four state AGI $14,617 = 26,006.18 - 8,389.28 - 3,000" + }, + { + "figure": "seven answered $0", + "source": "predictions 0.0 for the seven in model_groups['answered $0']" + }, + { + "figure": "unstated $15,400", + "source": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731: 'taxable base of $7,606 (AGI $23,006 less standard deduction)'; 23,006 - 7,606 = 15,400; 3% x 7,606 = 228.18" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-astra|annotation", + "problem": "Says the model 'correctly inflation-indexed the standard deduction but overstated it as $12,875', treating $12,875 as the model's own indexing error, and says it 'rounded AGI down to $23,006'. $12,875 is the Department of Revenue's provisional withholding and estimated-tax amount, and the model rounded nothing: the prompt shows wages of $26,006, so $23,006 is the AGI the stated facts give. The $40 deduction difference accounts for $1.20 of the $1.21 gap; the $0.18 of wages the prompt leaves out ($0.0053 of tax) and rounding the $305.135 reference to $305.14 make up the rest. Revised after review: the first draft still said the model worked 'from AGI rounded to $23,006'.", + "evidence": { + "model_quote": { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 303.93, + "explanation": "Louisiana AGI is $23,006; subtracting the inflation-adjusted $12,875 single standard deduction leaves $10,131 taxable at 3%, with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 303.93" + }, + "readme": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md", + "quotes": [ + "The Department of Revenue published $12,875 single and separate ... as the amounts it used in its 2026 withholding tables. That is $12,500 × 1.03, from the CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025.", + "The worksheet in the 2026 Form IT-540ESi instructions ... gives the same $12,875 as the \"Louisiana estimated standard deduction\".", + "Recommendation 2: Replace \"inflation-indexed ... $12,835\" with the sourced chain ... For scenario_077, record that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that withholding amount." + ] + }, + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10171.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12875.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10131.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 303.9352722167969 + } + }, + "prompt": { + "render": "policybench.prompts.describe_household(scenario_from_dict(scenarios.csv scenario_077 scenario_json)) with the release worktree on PYTHONPATH", + "lines": [ + "- gross wages and salaries: $26,006", + "- long-term capital gains: $-7,964", + "- short-term capital gains: $-4" + ], + "scenarios_csv_employment_income": 26006.17578125, + "code": "policybench/prompts.py describe_person: f\"{person.employment_income:,.0f}\"", + "all_models_agi": "every scenario_077 explanation that states AGI uses '23,006'; none uses 23,006.18" + } + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$12,875, $23,006, $10,131, $303.93", + "source": "gpt-6-astra explanation (quoted); 0.03 x (23,006 - 12,875) = 303.93" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,835, $10,171.18, $305.14", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline" + }, + { + "figure": "$1.21 gap; $1.20 from the deduction; the rest from the $0.18 and rounding to the cent", + "source": "305.14 - 303.93 = 1.21; 0.03 x (12,875 - 12,835) = 1.20; 0.03 x 0.17578 = 0.0053; 305.14 - 305.13525390625 = 0.00475; 1.20 + 0.0053 + 0.0047 = 1.21" + }, + { + "figure": "$0.18 of wages the prompt leaves out", + "source": "employment_income 26006.17578125 vs prompt '$26,006'" + }, + { + "figure": "$23,006.18 engine AGI", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline la_agi 23006.17578125" + }, + { + "figure": "$303.94 with $12,875", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 ldr_published tax 303.9352722167969" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-4.6|annotation", + "problem": "Says 'From 2025 both were replaced by a single standard deduction', dating the end of the federal income tax deduction to 2025; the engine ends it after 2021. The rewritten scenario_077 case note drops the same claim, so the two would contradict each other on the same view. It also calls the model's method 'Louisiana's repealed pre-2025 structure', though the model taxed at the post-2025 flat 3%. Missed in the first draft; raised by the reviewer.", + "evidence": { + "model_quote": { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 531.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax computation: Gross wages = $26,006. Capital gains: long-term = -$7,964, short-term = -$4; net capital gain/loss = -$7,968 (losses limited to -$3,000 for federal/state purposes, but LA follows federal AGI). Federal AGI: wages $26,006 + capital losses capped at -$3,000 = $23,006. Louisiana uses federal AGI as starting point. LA personal exemption for single filer = $4,500. Louisiana also allows deduction for federal income tax paid; federal tax on ~$23,006 AGI (standard deduction $15,000, taxable income ~$8,006, federal tax ~$801). LA taxable income = $23,006 - $4,500 (personal exemption) - $801 (federal tax deduction) = $17,705. LA 2026 flat income tax rate is 3% (Act 5 of 2024 special session reduced rate to 3% effective 2025). LA tax = $17,705 × 3% = $531.15. LA nonrefundable credits: none identified. However, employer-sponsored insurance premiums of $8,389 are pre-tax (excluded from wages already). Rechecking: wages $26,006 are gross including ESI premiums already excluded at federal level (Box 1 W-2). Net capital loss deduction on LA return: LA follows federal capital loss limitation of -$3,000. Federal AGI = $26,006 - $3,000 = $23,006. Federal taxable income = $23,006 - $15,000 (standard deduction) = $8,006. Federal income tax = 10% × $8,006 = $800.60 ≈ $801. LA AGI = $23,006. LA deductions: personal exemption $4,500 + federal tax paid $801 = $5,301. LA taxable income = $23,006 - $5,301 = $17,705. LA tax at 3% = $531.15. No nonrefundable credits identified. State income tax before refundable credits = $531. Rounding to nearest dollar: $531. value = 531" + }, + "engine_code": { + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml": "2021-01-01: true; 2022-01-01: false (reference: 'Title 47 - Revenue and Taxation §298. Repealed by Acts 2021, No. 39')", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/la_federal_tax_deduction.py": "# The deduction was discontinued in 2022; return amount * p.availability", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/standard/applies.yaml": "description: 'Louisiana applies a standard deduction and repeals personal exemptions, if this is true.' 2020-01-01: false; 2025-01-01: true", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exemptions/personal.yaml": "SINGLE 4_500; '# Personal exemptions repealed for 2025+ by Act 11 and replaced with standard deduction.'", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits.py": "if p.flat.applies: return income * p.flat.rate (la_exemptions enters only the graduated branch)" + }, + "consistency": "scenario_051 claude-sonnet-4.6 row (committed): 'a deduction Louisiana repealed after 2021'", + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10171.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + } + } + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$4,500, $801, $17,705, 3%, $531", + "source": "claude-sonnet-4.6 explanation: 'LA taxable income = $23,006 - $4,500 (personal exemption) - $801 (federal tax deduction) = $17,705 ... LA tax at 3% = $531.15 ... value = 531'; 23,006 - 4,500 - 801 = 17,705; 0.03 x 17,705 = 531.15" + }, + { + "figure": "$23,006 AGI", + "source": "claude-sonnet-4.6 explanation: 'Federal AGI: wages $26,006 + capital losses capped at -$3,000 = $23,006'" + }, + { + "figure": "federal income tax deduction ended after 2021", + "source": "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml 2022-01-01: false" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,835, $10,171.18, $305.14", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline la_standard_deduction 12835.0, la_taxable_income 10171.17578125, tax 305.13525390625" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-5|annotation", + "problem": "'Louisiana repealed both of these for 2025+' dates the repeal of the model's 'federal-based deductions' to 2025. Read as the federal income tax deduction, the engine ends it after 2021; read as the federal-based itemized deduction, the engine still has it in 2026. Missed in the first draft; raised by the reviewer. The reviewer's suggested 'Louisiana allows neither for 2026' is not used, because under the second reading it is false (la_itemized_deductions still applies in 2026 for itemizers).", + "evidence": { + "model_quote": { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 448.0, + "explanation": "Louisiana 2026 individual income tax: Federal AGI starts with wages $26,006 less capital losses (short-term -$4, long-term -$7,964, but capital losses limited to $3,000 net deduction per federal rules) giving AGI ~$23,006. Louisiana uses a flat rate structure for 2026 (post-reform flat 3% rate on net income after standard deduction ~$12,500 for single filer). Taxable income ≈ $23,006 - $12,500 standard deduction ≈ $10,506, taxed at 3% ≈ $315, plus adjustments for federal-based deductions bring estimate to approximately $448 after standard deductions and personal exemption credits. value = 448" + }, + "engine_code": { + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/federal_tax/availability.yaml": "2021-01-01: true; 2022-01-01: false", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_taxable_income.py": "total_deductions = itemizes * la_itemized_deductions + la_federal_tax_deduction (+ la_standard_deduction when standard.applies); return max_(agi - total_deductions, 0)", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/itemized/relevant_federal_deductions.yaml": "2022-01-01: [medical_expense_deduction] (no end date)", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/deductions/itemized/excess_fraction.yaml": "2009-01-01: 1 (no end date)", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits.py": "if p.flat.applies: return income * p.flat.rate; la_exemptions enters only the graduated branch" + }, + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10171.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + } + } + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "neither applies to this household in 2026", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline: la_agi 23006.17578125 - la_taxable_income 10171.17578125 = 12835.0 = la_standard_deduction, so no itemized, federal-tax or exemption amount reduces taxable income; flat branch ignores la_exemptions" + }, + { + "figure": "about $315, then $448 (unchanged text)", + "source": "claude-sonnet-5 explanation: 'taxed at 3% ≈ $315, plus adjustments for federal-based deductions bring estimate to approximately $448 after standard deductions and personal exemption credits. value = 448'" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-flash-0731|annotation", + "problem": "'which is roughly a federal-style standard deduction' attributes the model's $15,400 to a federal amount with no support. The model named no amount, and no federal single standard deduction in the engine is $15,400. Missed in the first draft; raised by the reviewer.", + "evidence": { + "model_quote": { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 228.18, + "explanation": "Louisiana flat 3% individual income tax applied to taxable base of $7,606 (AGI $23,006 less standard deduction), yielding 0.03 x 7,606 = $228.18. value = 228.18" + }, + "engine_code": { + "policyengine_us/parameters/gov/irs/deductions/standard/amount.yaml": "SINGLE: 2024-01-01: 14_600; 2025-01-01: 15_750; 2026-01-01: 16_100 (no 15_400 anywhere in the file)" + } + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$7,606, $15,400, $23,006", + "source": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731 explanation: 'taxable base of $7,606 (AGI $23,006 less standard deduction), yielding 0.03 x 7,606 = $228.18'; 23,006 - 7,606 = 15,400" + }, + { + "figure": "called it the standard deduction, no amount stated", + "source": "same quote: 'less standard deduction'; '15,400' does not appear in the explanation" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_077|state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|explanation", + "problem": "Says the taxable income 'was then subject to Louisiana's tax brackets and rates'. The engine applies a single flat 3% rate for 2026; the graduated brackets are the repealed schedule.", + "evidence": { + "engine_code": { + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/la/tax/income/la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits.py": "income = tax_unit('la_taxable_income', period); p = parameters(period).gov.states.la.tax.income.main; if p.flat.applies: return income * p.flat.rate", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/flat/applies.yaml": "2020-01-01: false; 2025-01-01: true", + "results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/main/flat/rate.yaml": "2025-01-01: 0.03" + }, + "engine": { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json", + "baseline": { + "la_agi": 23006.17578125, + "la_standard_deduction": 12835.0, + "la_taxable_income": 10171.17578125, + "la_non_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + } + } + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$305.14", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline la_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.13525390625; 0.03 x 10,171.18 = 305.14" + }, + { + "figure": "no nonrefundable credit", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json scenario_077 baseline la_non_refundable_credits 0.0" + } + ] + } +] diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/payroll.json b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/payroll.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3ab1aa1a --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/payroll.json @@ -0,0 +1,7065 @@ +[ + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026", + "Total = $1,798.00 + $420.50 = $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5.1", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% * 29,000 = 2,218.50", + "no modeled mandatory MN employee payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-haiku-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees", + "Adjusting for any state-specific considerations and rounding: value = 2175.90" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2175.9, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,175.90", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.7", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "$29,000 × 7.65%", + "= $2,218.50", + "MN has no mandatory employee state payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.8", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Social Security tax = 6.2% × 29,000 = 1,798", + "MN has no mandatory employee payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "totaling $2,218.50", + "no mandatory MN employee payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5.5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security and Medicare tax is 7.65% × $29,000 in wages" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-4.6", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MN does not impose a separate employee payroll tax beyond federal", + "Total = $1,798.00 + $420.50 = $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no state disability or paid family leave employee contribution in 2026 for this scenario", + "Total = 2218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "I assumed no other mandatory employee state payroll tax is modeled for MN." + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% on $29,000 wages = $2,218.50", + "no employee state payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MN PFML employee share 0.35%=$101.50", + "Total = 2320" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2320.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.35%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 101.50/29,000 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,320", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn paid_leave employee_rate 2026 (0.0044) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$26.10", + "source": "arithmetic: 2,346.10 - 2,320 = 26.10" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no employee state payroll tax applies, for a total of $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [ + "$101.50 Minnesota Paid Leave employee premium = $2,320", + "\"value\": 2320" + ], + "model_prediction": 2320.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response); raw_response quotes are shown after JSON escape decoding", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,320", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$101.50", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3-flash-preview", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% of $29,000 in gross wages", + "which totals $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "The employee share of Social Security (6.2%) and Medicare (1.45%) on $29,000 of gross wages. value = 2219" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2219.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,219", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "29000 * 0.0765 = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% of the Head's gross wages of $29,000, which equals $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll tax (Social Security and Medicare) on gross wages of $29,000 is $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.6-flash", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee payroll tax is 7.65% of gross wages ($29,000 * 0.0765 = $2,218.50)" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.7-flash", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA tax of 7.65% on $29,000 in gross wages equals $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gemini-3.8-flash", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "6.2% Social Security ($1,798) plus 1.45% Medicare ($420.50) on $29,000 of wages, totaling $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|glm-5.2", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": null, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|glm-5.3", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll tax on $29,000 of wages at 7.65%", + "no Additional Medicare Tax since wages are far below the threshold" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-mini", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "employee Social Security tax is 6.2% of $29,000 and Medicare tax is 1.45%", + "mandatory state employee payroll tax in Minnesota. value = 4428.6" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 4428.6, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "6.2%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 1,798 / 29,000 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 420.50 / 29,000 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,428.60", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "15.3%", + "source": "arithmetic: 2 x (6.2% + 1.45%)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-nano", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "29,000*0.0765=2,218.5", + "29,000*0.0524=1520", + "state payroll taxes are not specified" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 1520.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "5.24%", + "source": "arithmetic: the model's own 0.0524 ('29,000*0.0524=1520')" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-luna", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "with no additional or state payroll tax; value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-terra", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA on $29,000 of wages is 7.65 percent, with no Additional Medicare Tax; value = 2219" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2219.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,219", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-6-luna", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "on $29,000 of wages total 7.65%; no other employee-side payroll tax is indicated" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|gpt-6-sol", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security and Medicare taxes equal 7.65% of 29000 in wages; value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|grok-4.3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee SS 6.2% and Medicare 1.45% on $29000 wages. value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|grok-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies. value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|grok-4.6", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax. value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|grok-4.7", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "(paid-leave withholding is optional)", + "Payroll tax is $2,218.50" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn paid_leave employee_rate 2026 (0.0044) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|grok-build-0.1", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax is 6.2% of $29,000 = $1,798", + "Total employee-side payroll tax is $2,218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|inkling", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no Additional Medicare Tax or state employee payroll taxes apply. value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|kimi-k2.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": null, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|minimax-m3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Total employee payroll tax = $2,218.50 ≈ $2,219" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2219.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,219", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|ox-alpha", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax. value = 2218.5" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|qwen-3.7-max", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MN has no mandatory employee state payroll tax (no state disability insurance tax like CA/NY)", + "Total = 1798 + 420.50 = 2218.50, rounded to 2219" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2219.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,219", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax|qwen3.8-max", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll tax is 7.65% of $29,000 wages: $1,798 Social Security tax plus $419.50 Medicare tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 2218.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (1,798/29,000 and 420.50/29,000) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$419.50", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado FAMLI employee share = 0.45% × 4,088 = 18.40", + "Including the mandatory CO FAMLI employee premium of 0.45%: total = 331.14", + "value = 315.14" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 315.14, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.45%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$331.14", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$1", + "source": "arithmetic: |331.14 - 330.73| = 0.41, inside the $1 exact-match tolerance (README 'exact within $1')" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: co famli employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$315.14", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5.1", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no modeled mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax. value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-haiku-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "No mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Colorado.", + "Total payroll tax = $253.46 + $59.28 = $312.74, rounded to $313" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.7", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "4088*0.0045 = 18.40", + "Excluding FAMLI as state UI-like. value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$18.40", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.8", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado has no mandatory employee payroll tax applicable here", + "Total = $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA on $4,088 wages: 6.2% Social Security ($253.46) + 1.45% Medicare ($59.28) = about $313" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5.5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA is 7.65% of $4,088 wages", + "4,088 × 0.0765 = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-4.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax.", + "Total = $253.46 + $59.28 = $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/UI employee contribution) applicable here", + "Total = $253.46 + $59.28 = $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% × $4,088 = $312.73", + "Colorado has no employee state payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado's mandatory employee FAMLI payroll premium ($24.53), totaling $337.26" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 337.26, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$24.53", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.6%", + "source": "arithmetic: 24.53 / 4,088 = 0.0060" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$337.26", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: co famli employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6.54", + "source": "arithmetic: 24.53 - 17.99 = 6.54" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gemini-3-flash-preview", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Since the head's employer-sponsored health insurance premiums ($8,389) exceed their gross wages ($4,088), the taxable wage base for FICA and CO FAMLI taxes is $0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 0.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$8,389", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088.15", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income 4,088.147 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$330.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 330.731 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Calculated as 7.65% (6.2% Social Security + 1.45% Medicare) of $4,088 gross wages. value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "employee Social Security tax (6.2% of $4,088 = $253.46) plus employee Medicare tax (1.45% of $4,088 = $59.28). value = 312.74" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.74, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare) on $4,088 of gross wages are $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gemini-3.8-flash", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "totaling $312.73: value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|glm-5.3", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll tax on $4,088 wages = 7.65% = $312.73, rounded to $313" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-mini", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no Additional Medicare Tax or state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado. value = 312" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-nano", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "the provided wages are treated as not subject/insufficient for the modeled employee-side components in this output setup; value = 0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 0.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "6.2%", + "source": "engine/prompt: SS rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: Medicare rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088.15", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income 4,088.147 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$330.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 330.731 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gpt-5.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax included, so $4,088 * 0.0765 = $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-terra", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security and Medicare tax on $4,088 of wages is 7.65 percent, or $312.732" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.732, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.732", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|grok-4.3", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "6.2% SS + 1.45% Medicare = $312.73 rounded to 313" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|grok-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "(401k contributions do not reduce FICA base)", + "no Additional Medicare Tax or Colorado employee payroll tax. value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|grok-4.6", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "$4,088 × 0.0765 = $312.73", + "no Colorado employee payroll tax" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|grok-build-0.1", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "total $312.732 rounded to $313", + "No Additional Medicare Tax or mandatory state payroll taxes apply." + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.732", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|inkling", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA on $4,088 wages: Social Security 6.2% ($253.46) + Medicare 1.45% ($59.28) = $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|minimax-m3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Total employee payroll tax = $253.46 + $59.28 ≈ $313", + "Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$313", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|ox-alpha", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Social Security 6.2% = $253.46 and Medicare 1.45% = $59.28, totaling $312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|qwen-3.7-max", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado does not have a mandatory employee state payroll tax.", + "value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax|qwen3.8-max", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Colorado does not impose a mandatory employee payroll income tax. value = 312.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 312.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "engine/prompt: prompt wage line ($4,088) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "0.0046 × 175,002 ≈ $805.01", + "PolicyEngine-style employee payroll tax typically counts SS + Medicare only when state payroll tax not modeled", + "Total ≈ 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 = 13,387.65", + "value = 13268.7" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13268.7, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,268.70", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5.1", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security 6.2% x 175,002 = 10,850.12", + "Medicare 1.45% x 175,002 = 2,537.53", + "value = 13387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-haiku-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Massachusetts does not have a separate mandatory employee payroll tax beyond federal taxes", + "6.2% on earnings up to $168,600 (2026 limit)", + "value = $13,383.41" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13383.41, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$168,600", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,383.41", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.7", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Estimating MA PFML employee contribution ~$0", + "subtotal = 13387.65", + "value = 12321.73" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 12321.73, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$12,321.73", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.8", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "not modeled here as 0 absent rate", + "Total = 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 = value = 12717.62" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 12717.62, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$12,717.62", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "arithmetic: 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 (the model's own figures; also the engine's federal part)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "arithmetic: 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 (the model's own figures; also the engine's federal part)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "beyond PFML: ~0", + "Total ≈ 13,388. value = 13385" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13385.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,388", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,385", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5.5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "The MA Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution (about $805 at 0.46%) is excluded on the assumption the model does not include it", + "value = 13387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$805", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-4.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Total = $10,850.12 + $2,537.53 + $805.01 = $14,192.66", + "employees pay the full medical leave contribution (0.42%) and up to 40% of the family leave contribution (0.46% × 40% = 0.184%), totaling 0.604%", + "MA PFML employee share = $175,002 × 0.00604 = $1,057.01" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 14444.66, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.604%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.42%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.70%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,057.01", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "beyond employer-side PFML, which is excluded", + "Recalculating: 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 = 13,387.65. value = 12318.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 12318.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$12,318.65", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5.5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "I did not include any MA paid family and medical leave contribution. value = 13387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MA has no employee state payroll tax. Total = 13,387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MA PFML employee share (0.38%) apply", + "$14,052.66, rounded to $14,053" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 14053.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.38%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$665", + "source": "arithmetic: 0.38% x 175,002 = 665.01" + }, + { + "number": "$14,053", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gemini-3-flash-preview", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "the Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave employee contribution ($556.51, estimated at 0.318% of wages), totaling $13,944.16" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13944.16, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.318%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,944.16", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$248.50", + "source": "arithmetic: 805.01 - 556.51 = 248.50 (14,192.66 - 13,944.16 = 248.50)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Calculated as 6.2% Social Security tax on the $175,002 income (capped at $176,100 limit projections), plus 1.45% Medicare tax. value = 11843.0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 11843.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "6.2%", + "source": "engine/prompt: SS rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: Medicare rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$11,843", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gemini-3.6-flash", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "on taxable wages of $167,613 ($175,002 gross minus $7,389 pre-tax health insurance premiums), totaling $12,822.40" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 12822.4, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$167,613", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,389", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gemini-3.7-flash", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side Social Security tax (6.2% on FICA wages), Medicare tax (1.45%), plus MA PFML employee contributions. value = 13444.0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13444.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,444", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$56", + "source": "arithmetic: 13,444 - 13,387.65 = 56.35" + }, + { + "number": "$56", + "source": "arithmetic: 13,444 - 13,387.65 = 56.35" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gemini-3.8-flash", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "totaling $13,387.65. value = 13387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|glm-5.2", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MA PFML employee contribution ≈ 0.532% × $175,002 = $931", + "0.352% medical leave employee share + 0.18% family leave" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 14319.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.532%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "arithmetic: 0.18% + 0.70% (engine parameters family_rate and medical_rate)" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.70%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.28%", + "source": "arithmetic: 40% x 0.70% = 0.28%" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$931", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|glm-5.3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no Massachusetts mandatory employee payroll tax; total = $13,387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-mini", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee payroll tax is 6.2% Social Security on wages up to the wage base plus 1.45% Medicare on all wages", + "value = 13389.37" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13389.37, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,389.37", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-nano", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "wages do exceed the threshold so Additional Medicare applied at 0.9%), resulting in 5420" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 5420.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$200,000", + "source": "arithmetic: Additional Medicare Tax threshold for a single filer (engine parameter gov.irs.payroll.medicare.additional.exclusion SINGLE 200_000)" + }, + { + "number": "$5,420", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-terra", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security and Medicare tax on $175002 of wages totals $13387.65, plus estimated Massachusetts employee PFML withholding of $962.51" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 14350.16, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$962.51", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.55%", + "source": "arithmetic: 962.51 / 175,002 = 0.0055" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|gpt-6-luna", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax at 6.2% and Medicare tax at 1.45% apply to $175,002 of wages", + "giving approximately $13,388" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13388.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "6.2%", + "source": "engine/prompt: SS rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: Medicare rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,388", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|grok-4.3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "SS 6.2% up to wage base plus Medicare 2.9% on all wages. value = 15926" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 15926.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "2.9%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: Medicare rate (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$5,075", + "source": "arithmetic: 2.9% x 175,002 = 5,075.06" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|grok-4.5", + "problem": [ + "calls 0.46% 'the employee rate', presenting the most the employer may deduct as the employee's rate (the same wording rewritten on gemini-3-flash-preview and gpt-5.6-terra)", + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "MA PFML mandatory employee contribution at 0.318% is 556. Sum is 13944." + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13944.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.318%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,944", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|grok-build-0.1", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no state payroll tax), calculated as 175002 * 0.0765 rounded to nearest dollar equals 13388" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13388.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,388", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|kimi-k2.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": null, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|minimax-m3", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "value=0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 0.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|ox-alpha", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax modeled here. Total 10,850.12 + 2,537.53 = 13,387.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13387.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|qwen-3.7-max", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "No mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Massachusetts", + "Total payroll tax = $10,850.12 + $2,537.53 = $13,387.65. Rounded to $14525.24" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 14525.24, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,525.24", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax|qwen3.8-max", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee-side payroll tax consists of Social Security tax (6.2% on wages up to the taxable maximum) and Medicare tax (1.45% on all wages), plus the Additional Medicare Tax", + "this totals approximately $13,922" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 13922.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$13,922", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY has no mandatory employee state payroll tax modeled beyond negligible PFL/SDI, which is excluded here", + "Total = 6,212.09 + 1,452.83 = 7,664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-fable-5.1", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security 6.2% x 100,195 = 6,212.09 plus Medicare 1.45% x 100,195 = 1,452.83", + "value = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-haiku-4.5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "$100,195 × 0.0062 = $621.21", + "other NY state payroll taxes (disability insurance employee portion and other mandatory withholdings) sum to approximately $8,304.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8304.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "0.62%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$640", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,304.92 - 7,664.92 = 640.00" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$197", + "source": "arithmetic: 640.00 - 443.11 = 196.89" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.7", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY SDI employee max ~$0.60/wk × 52 = ~$31.20", + "100,195 × 0.00388 ≈ $388.76, but capped at ~$354", + "Using SDI $31.20 + PFL ~$49.31 ≈ $80.51" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7745.43, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$354", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$49.31", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$80.51", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-opus-4.8", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY has no mandatory employee payroll tax. Total = 6212.09+1452.83 = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY does not impose a mandatory employee payroll tax counted here. Total ≈ 7,665" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-opus-5.5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no mandatory NY employee payroll tax is modeled. Total = 7,664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-4.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NYS SDI: $0.60/week × 52 = $31.20", + "0.00388 × $89,343 = $346.65", + "value = 8042.77" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8042.77, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.388%", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$89,343", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$346.65", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,042.77", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$65.26", + "source": "arithmetic: 411.91 - 346.65 = 65.26 (8,108.03 - 8,042.77 = 65.26)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer", + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY's disability/PFL employee contributions are minimal/capped", + "Adding NY SDI/PFL employee contribution estimate (~$129.39", + "approximately $7,794.31" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7794.31, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$129.39", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,794.31", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$314", + "source": "arithmetic: 443.11 - 129.39 = 313.72" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|claude-sonnet-5.5", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "No NY payroll tax is modeled. value = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA wages are $100,014 after the $181 traditional 401k deferral", + "there are no mandatory employee state payroll taxes in NY. value = 7651" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7651.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$181", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,651", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY SDI contribution $31.20. Total $7,696.12" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7696.12, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,696.12", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 7,696.12 = 411.91 (also the engine's PFL)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 7,696.12 = 411.91 (also the engine's PFL)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "New York Paid Family Leave maximum annual employee contribution is $369.68; total = $8,034.60" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8034.6, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$369.68", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,034.60", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$73.43", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 8,034.60 = 73.43" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY PFL $432.84 + NY DBL $31.20 = $8,128.96" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8128.96, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$20.93", + "source": "arithmetic: 432.84 - 411.91 = 20.93 (8,128.96 - 8,108.03 = 20.93)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3-flash-preview", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "approximately $333 for New York Paid Family Leave, and $31 for New York Disability Insurance. value = 8029.0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8029.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$333", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$79", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 8,029 = 79.03" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% FICA tax on $100,195 gross wages. value = 7665.0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "problem": [ + "calls the model's PFL rate 'stale', which no source in the audit evidence supports: the engine's NY PFL employee_rate parameter holds only 0 and 2026's 0.00432, and verification/law_research.json records only 2025's 0.388% and $354.53; $294.62 is 0.373% of the model's $78,987 base" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "7.65% FICA tax on W-2 wages after ESI deduction ($78,987), plus NY Paid Family Leave ($294.62) and NY SDI ($31.20)" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6368.33, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "arithmetic: prompt ESI premium $21,208 (21,207.53 rounded); 100,195 - 78,987 = 21,208" + }, + { + "number": "$78,987", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$294.62", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.373%", + "source": "arithmetic: 294.62 / 78,987 = 0.003730 (0.00373 x 78,987 = 294.62); the model states no rate" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "6.2% Social Security ($4,897.19) and 1.45% Medicare ($1,145.31) on wages of $78,987", + "plus approximately $394 for NY State Paid Family Leave" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6436.5, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$78,987", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "arithmetic: prompt: employer-sponsored insurance premiums $21,208 (21,207.53 rounded); 100,195 - 78,987 = 21,208" + }, + { + "number": "$1,622.42", + "source": "arithmetic: 7,664.92 - 6,042.50 = 1,622.42" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$394", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Annual employee-side payroll tax includes Social Security and Medicare taxes on gross wages. value = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.6-flash", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "on wages after pre-tax ESI deductions ($78,987), plus state disability and paid family leave contributions. value = 6313.0" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6313.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$78,987", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "arithmetic: prompt ESI premium $21,208; 100,195 - 78,987 = 21,208" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,622", + "source": "arithmetic: 7.65% x (100,195 - 78,987) = 1,622.41" + }, + { + "number": "$270", + "source": "arithmetic: 6,313 - 7.65% x 78,987 (6,042.51) = 270.49" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.7-flash", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "on FICA-taxable wages of $78,987) plus NY state mandatory payroll deductions (SDI/PFL); value = 6376" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6376.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "arithmetic: prompt ESI premium $21,208; 100,195 - 78,987 = 21,208" + }, + { + "number": "$78,987", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$333", + "source": "arithmetic: 6,376 - 7.65% x 78,987 (6,042.51) = 333.49" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gemini-3.8-flash", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "(6.2% of $100,195 = $6,212.09) and Medicare tax (1.45% of $100,195 = $1,452.83). value = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|glm-5.2", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY SDI: $0.60/week × 52 = $31.20", + "NY Paid Family Leave: 0.388% × min($100,195, 2026 SAWW cap ~$96,200) = 0.00388 × $96,200 = $373.26" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8069.38, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "2025", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.388%", + "source": "arithmetic: the 2025 PFL rate per the audit's law research (paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost 'still shows the 2025 figures (0.388%, $354.53 ...)')" + }, + { + "number": "$96,200", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$38.65", + "source": "arithmetic: 411.91 - 373.26 = 38.65 (8,108.03 - 8,069.38 = 38.65)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|glm-5.3", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax of 6.2% on $100,195 wages ($6,212) plus employee Medicare tax of 1.45% ($1,453)", + "NY has no employee-side state payroll tax. value = 7765" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7765.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$6,212", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,453", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,765", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-mini", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "no mandatory employee state payroll tax in NY; total employee-side payroll tax is 7,660" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7660.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,660", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.4-nano", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Social Security 6.2% of 100195 plus Medicare 1.45% of 100195", + "rounded. value = 7659" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7659.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,659", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.5", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "adding estimated NY employee PFL/DBL contributions of $385.73 gives value = 8050.65" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8050.65, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$385.73", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2025", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$57.38", + "source": "arithmetic: 411.91 - 354.53 = 57.38 (8,108.03 - 8,050.65 = 57.38)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-luna", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "New York employee disability payroll tax is approximately $31.20; total payroll tax is $7,696.12" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7696.12, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,696.12", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 7,696.12 = 411.91 (also the engine's PFL)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 7,696.12 = 411.91 (also the engine's PFL)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-sol", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security and Medicare taxes are 7.65% of 100195 of wages", + "value = 7664.92" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7664.92, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-5.6-terra", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax of 6.2% and Medicare tax of 1.45% apply to $100,195 of wages, with no Additional Medicare Tax. value = 7654" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7654.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|gpt-6-astra", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "estimated New York paid-family-leave contributions are $432.84 and disability contributions are $31.20; value = 8128.96" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8128.96, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$20.93", + "source": "arithmetic: 432.84 - 411.91 = 20.93 (8,128.96 - 8,108.03 = 20.93)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|grok-4.3", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee payroll tax on wages at 7.65%. value = 7665" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45% (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|grok-4.5", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee FICA wages equal gross wages minus ESI premiums (401k does not reduce FICA) = 78987", + "no NY employee payroll tax. value = 6042" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6042.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "arithmetic: prompt ESI premium $21,208; 100,195 - 78,987 = 21,208" + }, + { + "number": "$78,987", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|grok-4.6", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself", + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY Paid Family Leave is a mandatory employee payroll tax of about 367 on the 2026 PFL wage base. No other employee state payroll tax applies, so value = 8032" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8032.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$367", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,032", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$76", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 8,032 = 76.03" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|grok-4.7", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax is 6.2% of wages $100,195 ($6,212.09) and employee Medicare tax is 1.45% ($1,452.83), totaling $7,665" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|grok-build-0.1", + "problem": [ + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "FICA wages are 78806 after subtracting employee ESI premiums of 21208 and traditional 401k contributions of 181 from gross wages of 100195" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 6029.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$181", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|inkling", + "problem": [ + "cites a $95,350.72 PFL wage cap that no source supports (the audit's law research: 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76; 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.92, not $411.91)" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY mandatory employee payroll taxes (SDI capped ~$31 and PFL ~$365) add ~$396", + "Total ≈ $8,061" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 8061.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$31", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$365", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$47", + "source": "arithmetic: 8,108.03 - 8,061 = 47.03" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|kimi-k2.6", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": null, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|minimax-m3", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Total payroll tax ≈ $7,664.92. value = 7665" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|ox-alpha", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "Employee Social Security tax of 6.2% on $100,195 wages ($6,212.09, below the wage base) plus employee Medicare tax of 1.45% ($1,452.83)", + "Total ≈ $7,665" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7665.0, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|qwen-3.7-max", + "problem": [ + "presents the largest deductible share as the household's actual contribution or the correct answer" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "NY PFL max employee contribution for 2026 ≈ $431.88", + "$7,664.92 + NY state deductions ~$-200.61", + "NY mandatory ~$-200 = value = 7464.33" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7464.33, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$431.88", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,464.33", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax|qwen3.8-max", + "problem": [ + "calls the optional employee share mandatory", + "faults the model for leaving out a share the law lets the employer pay itself" + ], + "evidence": { + "model_quotes": [ + "No mandatory employee state payroll tax is included. value = 7752.42" + ], + "raw_response_quotes": [], + "model_prediction": 7752.42, + "model_source": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (explanation, raw_response)", + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082), re-run this task: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; all four reproduce the reference); law framing: reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json and README 'The law, program by program'" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,752.42", + "source": "model's own response (explanation/raw_response/prediction)" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap) (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917 (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json; results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us parameters)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text called the reference's state part Minnesota's 'Paid Leave employee contribution' with no mention that the employer may pay it, and framed every federal-only answer as an error.", + "Old text: 'The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35%' is wrong: seven models included it in their explanations and six match the reference (README, 'What a release adopting either option must also do', Exclude item 5).", + "Old text: 'many said outright that Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax or that the paid-leave deduction is optional': only one (grok-4.7) said optional." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn paid_leave employee_rate 2026 (0.0044)" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + }, + { + "number": "$2,219", + "source": "a model's own response on this output" + }, + { + "number": "0.35%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: deepseek-v4-pro explanation 'MN PFML employee share 0.35%=$101.50'" + }, + { + "number": "$2,320", + "source": "count/arithmetic: deepseek-v4-pro and deepseek-v4-pro-0813 predictions" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50" + }, + { + "number": "5.24%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: gpt-5.4-nano explanation" + }, + { + "number": "$2,175.90", + "source": "count/arithmetic: claude-haiku-4.5 prediction" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text: 'Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees half of a 0.88% premium' presents the largest deductible share as a charge on the employee; the employer remits the premium and may pay that share.", + "Old text gives FICA as $312.75 and then $312.73; the engine's is $312.74 (253.465 + 59.278 on $4,088.15), and $312.73 is 7.65% of the prompt's rounded $4,088 (README Exclude item 5). The new text gives the federal part as one total, because the parts rounded to the cent ($253.47 + $59.28) print as $312.75.", + "Old text: 'either said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or dropped FAMLI on purpose' omits the eleven that never mention it, and calls those answers mistakes." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$330.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 330.731" + }, + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45%" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088.15", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income 4,088.147" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088", + "source": "count/arithmetic: prompt lists employment income with :,.0f (policybench/prompts.py describe_person)" + }, + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45%" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026)" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: co famli employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743" + }, + { + "number": "$1", + "source": "engine/prompt: exact-match tolerance $1" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: co famli employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "2025", + "source": "engine/prompt: year" + }, + { + "number": "0.45%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: engine parameter co employee_rate 2023-01-01: 0.0045 (until 2026)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.73", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 7.65% x 4,088 = 312.732" + }, + { + "number": "$331.14", + "source": "count/arithmetic: claude-fable-5 explanation" + }, + { + "number": "0.45%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: engine parameter co employee_rate 2023-01-01: 0.0045 (until 2026)" + }, + { + "number": "$315.14", + "source": "count/arithmetic: claude-fable-5 prediction" + }, + { + "number": "$24.53", + "source": "count/arithmetic: deepseek-v4-pro-0813 explanation" + }, + { + "number": "$8,389", + "source": "count/arithmetic: prompt ESI premium (8,389.28 rounded); gemini-3-flash-preview explanation '$8,389'" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "a model's own response on this output" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "a model's own response on this output" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text calls the PFML share 'the mandatory Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution'; the employer remits it and may deduct less or none.", + "Old text frames leaving PFML out or treating it as employer-only as the error, and its list of wrong rates omits 0.24% and 0.38%." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "6.2%", + "source": "engine/prompt: SS rate" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year" + }, + { + "number": "1.45%", + "source": "engine/prompt: Medicare rate" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4" + }, + { + "number": "0.70%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652" + }, + { + "number": "37", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 46 - 9" + }, + { + "number": "2.9%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: grok-4.3 explanation" + }, + { + "number": "$200,000", + "source": "count/arithmetic: engine parameter Additional Medicare exclusion SINGLE 200_000" + }, + { + "number": "$167,613", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 175,002 - 7,389" + }, + { + "number": "$7,389", + "source": "count/arithmetic: prompt ESI premium (7,389.28 rounded)" + }, + { + "number": "0.24%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: gemini-3.5-flash explanation" + }, + { + "number": "0.604%", + "source": "count/arithmetic: claude-sonnet-4.6 explanation" + }, + { + "number": "$167,613", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 175,002 - 7,389" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "a model's own response on this output" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text: 'The requested payroll_tax output includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In New York those are Paid Family Leave (PFL) and disability benefits (DBL) contributions' calls the optional contributions mandatory.", + "Old text cites 'the statewide average weekly wage base of $95,350.72'; the audit's law research finds no source for it (2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76) and 0.432% of it is $411.92, not $411.91. The engine applies the $411.91 maximum directly.", + "Old text frames dropping the $443.11 as the largest error group." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027" + }, + { + "number": "7.65%", + "source": "engine/prompt: 6.2% + 1.45%" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "2026", + "source": "engine/prompt: year" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap)" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917" + }, + { + "number": "42", + "source": "count/arithmetic: 46 - 4" + }, + { + "number": "$7,665", + "source": "count/arithmetic: rounded federal-only answers" + }, + { + "number": "$7,654", + "source": "count/arithmetic: gpt-5.6-terra prediction (lowest of the five FICA-only answers off $7,664.92 without a base cut: gpt-5.6-terra 7,654, gpt-5.4-nano 7,659, gpt-5.4-mini 7,660, qwen3.8-max 7,752.42, glm-5.3 7,765)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,765", + "source": "count/arithmetic: glm-5.3 prediction (highest of those five)" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917" + }, + { + "number": "$21,208", + "source": "count/arithmetic: prompt ESI premium (21,207.53 rounded)" + }, + { + "number": "$181", + "source": "count/arithmetic: prompt traditional 401(k) (181.37 rounded)" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91" + }, + { + "number": "0.432%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny paid_family_leave employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$200", + "source": "count/arithmetic: qwen-3.7-max explanation '~$-200'" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_032|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text calls the $127.60 'Minnesota's paid leave contribution requirement'; the employer may pay that share.", + "Old text names the variable 'mn_paid_leave_contribution'; policyengine-us 2.15.17 has no such variable. The component is mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_032); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$2,346.10", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference)" + }, + { + "number": "$1,798", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages" + }, + { + "number": "$420.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax" + }, + { + "number": "$127.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: mn paid_leave employee_rate 2026 (0.0044)" + }, + { + "number": "$29,000", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income / mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages" + }, + { + "number": "$2,218.50", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part = 1,798 + 420.50" + }, + { + "number": "$0", + "source": "a model's own response on this output" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_043|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text sums the FAMLI share into 'the final payroll tax obligation of $330.73', presenting the largest deductible share as an obligation of the household.", + "Old text's components, $253.47 + $59.28 + $17.99, add to $330.74 as printed against its stated $330.73; the engine's unrounded amounts (253.465 + 59.278 + 17.988, payroll_decomposition.json) sum to 330.731, so the new text says the parts are rounded." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_043); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$330.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 330.731" + }, + { + "number": "$4,642", + "source": "engine/prompt: scenarios.csv total_income 4,641.56" + }, + { + "number": "$253.47", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 253.465" + }, + { + "number": "$59.28", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 59.278" + }, + { + "number": "$17.99", + "source": "engine/prompt: co_employee_famli_contribution 17.988" + }, + { + "number": "$330.73", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 330.731" + }, + { + "number": "0.44%", + "source": "engine/prompt: co famli employee_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$4,088.15", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income 4,088.147" + }, + { + "number": "0.88%", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee 0.44% + employer 0.44% (co famli employer_rate 2026)" + }, + { + "number": "$312.74", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 312.743" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_081|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text calls the PFML share a 'paid leave contribution tax' and the sum 'the total payroll tax obligation', presenting the largest deductible share as an obligation of the household." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_081); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$14,192.66", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference)" + }, + { + "number": "$10,850.12", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 10,850.124" + }, + { + "number": "$2,537.53", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 2,537.529" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$805.01", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution 805.009" + }, + { + "number": "0.46%", + "source": "engine/prompt: family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4" + }, + { + "number": "$175,002", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "0.18%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma family_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "40%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_employee_share 0.4" + }, + { + "number": "0.70%", + "source": "engine/prompt: ma medical_rate 2026" + }, + { + "number": "$13,387.65", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 13,387.652" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_082|payroll_tax", + "problem": [ + "Old text says both New York contributions were 'calculated on the same $100,195 in taxable wages' without the caps that set them ($411.91 and $31.20), and calls the sum 'the total payroll tax obligation', presenting the largest collectible shares as an obligation of the household." + ], + "evidence": { + "engine": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/payroll_decomposition.json (scenario_082); re-run /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/payroll/engine/engine_values.json; engine source results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states//tax/payroll/...; parameters results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states//tax/payroll/...", + "law": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json; verification/law_research.json", + "counts": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv and explanations.json; predictions.csv.gz" + }, + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "number": "$8,108.03", + "source": "engine/prompt: payroll_tax (reference) 8,108.027" + }, + { + "number": "$6,212.09", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_social_security_tax 6,212.090" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$1,452.83", + "source": "engine/prompt: employee_medicare_tax 1,452.828" + }, + { + "number": "$443.11", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny state part 443.110" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91" + }, + { + "number": "$100,195", + "source": "engine/prompt: employment_income" + }, + { + "number": "$432.84", + "source": "engine/prompt: 0.00432 x 100,195 = 432.84" + }, + { + "number": "$411.91", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution / annual_max_contribution 411.91" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2" + }, + { + "number": "$31.20", + "source": "engine/prompt: ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution / annual_max_contribution 31.2" + }, + { + "number": "$0.60", + "source": "engine/prompt: 31.20 / 52 weeks (engine doc: annualized from the statutory weekly cap)" + }, + { + "number": "52", + "source": "engine/prompt: weeks" + }, + { + "number": "$7,664.92", + "source": "engine/prompt: federal part 7,664.917" + } + ] + } +] diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/s114.json b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/s114.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..565be806 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/s114.json @@ -0,0 +1,2407 @@ +{ + "engine_run": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)", + "old_texts_from": "git HEAD ad8a2d562b8fe33e1d08cc74f77c6d70c2fcf917 of /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch (annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace); the worktree copies were not used", + "derived_figures": { + "charitable gifts, no floor": 11446.65, + "charitable floor (0.5% of AGI)": 532.86, + "medical floor (7.5% of AGI)": 7992.94, + "17,518 = no-floor charitable + no-Part-B medical + real estate tax": 17518.0, + "19,518 = no-floor charitable + OTC-counted no-Part-B medical + real estate tax": 19518.0, + "VA itemized gap at 17,518": 1901.94, + "Part B less charitable floor": 1901.94 + }, + "engine_figures_checked": { + "AGI": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "adjusted_gross_income", + "written": 106572.56, + "engine": 106572.5625 + }, + "med_base": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "itemized_medical_expenses", + "written": 12434.8, + "engine": 12434.7998 + }, + "med_ded": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "medical_expense_deduction", + "written": 4441.86, + "engine": 4441.8574 + }, + "med_ded_nopb": { + "reading": "no_part_b", + "variable": "medical_expense_deduction", + "written": 2007.06, + "engine": 2007.0576 + }, + "med_ded_otc_nopb": { + "reading": "otc_in_other_no_pb", + "variable": "medical_expense_deduction", + "written": 4007.06, + "engine": 4007.0576 + }, + "partb": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "medicare_part_b_premium", + "written": 2434.8, + "engine": 2434.8 + }, + "charity": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "charitable_deduction", + "written": 10913.78, + "engine": 10913.7842 + }, + "re_tax": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "real_estate_taxes", + "written": 4064.29, + "engine": 4064.2942 + }, + "salt_income": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax", + "written": 5367.3, + "engine": 5367.2974 + }, + "va_withheld": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_withheld_income_tax", + "written": 5367.3, + "engine": 5367.2974 + }, + "salt": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "salt_deduction", + "written": 9431.59, + "engine": 9431.5918 + }, + "itemized": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "itemized_taxable_income_deductions", + "written": 24787.23, + "engine": 24787.2324 + }, + "less_salt": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "itemized_deductions_less_salt", + "written": 15355.64, + "engine": 15355.6416 + }, + "std": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "standard_deduction", + "written": 18150.0, + "engine": 18150.0 + }, + "nonitem_char": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "charitable_deduction_for_non_itemizers", + "written": 1000.0, + "engine": 1000.0 + }, + "qbi": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "qualified_business_income_deduction", + "written": 4872.35, + "engine": 4872.353 + }, + "senior": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "additional_senior_deduction", + "written": 4105.65, + "engine": 4105.6465 + }, + "deductions": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "taxable_income_deductions", + "written": 33765.23, + "engine": 33765.2344 + }, + "ti": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "taxable_income", + "written": 72807.33, + "engine": 72807.3281 + }, + "fed": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 10729.61, + "engine": 10729.6123 + }, + "fed_std_path": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "tax_liability_if_not_itemizing", + "written": 11969.8, + "engine": 11969.8037 + }, + "fed_nopb": { + "reading": "no_part_b", + "variable": "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 11265.27, + "engine": 11265.2676 + }, + "fed_nostate": { + "reading": "no_state_tax", + "variable": "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 11758.09, + "engine": 11758.0898 + }, + "fed_nopb_nostate": { + "reading": "no_pb_no_state_tax", + "variable": "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 11969.8, + "engine": 11969.8037 + }, + "fed_nopb_liab": { + "reading": "no_pb_liability", + "variable": "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 11642.16, + "engine": 11642.1621 + }, + "itemized_nopb_liab": { + "reading": "no_pb_liability", + "variable": "itemized_taxable_income_deductions", + "written": 20639.28, + "engine": 20639.2812 + }, + "va_nopb_liab_salt": { + "reading": "no_pb_liability", + "variable": "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax", + "written": 3654.15, + "engine": 3654.146 + }, + "va_agi": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_agi", + "written": 86743.77, + "engine": 86743.7656 + }, + "va_subtr": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_subtractions", + "written": 19828.8, + "engine": 19828.8008 + }, + "va_itemized": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_itemized_deductions", + "written": 19419.94, + "engine": 19419.9355 + }, + "va_itemized_nopb": { + "reading": "no_part_b", + "variable": "va_itemized_deductions", + "written": 16985.14, + "engine": 16985.1367 + }, + "va_itemized_otc_nopb": { + "reading": "otc_in_other_no_pb", + "variable": "va_itemized_deductions", + "written": 18985.14, + "engine": 18985.1367 + }, + "va_std": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_standard_deduction", + "written": 8750.0, + "engine": 8750.0 + }, + "va_ti": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_taxable_income", + "written": 65593.83, + "engine": 65593.8281 + }, + "va": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 3514.15, + "engine": 3514.145 + }, + "va_nopb": { + "reading": "no_part_b", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 3654.15, + "engine": 3654.146 + }, + "va_exempt": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "va_total_exemptions", + "written": 1730.0, + "engine": 1730.0 + }, + "ti_nopb_nostate": { + "reading": "no_pb_no_state_tax", + "variable": "taxable_income", + "written": 78444.56, + "engine": 78444.5625 + }, + "va_ti_nopb_nostate": { + "reading": "no_pb_no_state_tax", + "variable": "va_taxable_income", + "written": 76263.77, + "engine": 76263.7656 + }, + "va_ded_nopb_nostate": { + "reading": "no_pb_no_state_tax", + "variable": "va_deductions", + "written": 8750.0, + "engine": 8750.0 + }, + "va_nopb_nostate": { + "reading": "no_pb_no_state_tax", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "written": 4127.67, + "engine": 4127.6665 + }, + "std_path_deductions": { + "reading": "reference", + "variable": "taxable_income_deductions_if_not_itemizing", + "written": 28128.0, + "engine": 28128.0 + } + }, + "entries": [ + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "field": "case_annotation" + }, + "problem": "SALT figure $5,367.59 wrong (engine 5,367.30) and presented as household state income tax; 'non-deductible OTC' is a legal label the engine does not show; group (3)'s 'and so picking the standard deduction' holds only when both omissions occur (either alone still itemizes); the Part B premium is an engine assumption the prompt never states.", + "evidence": [], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$9,431.59 / $4,064.29", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,434.80, $2,434.80, $202.90 a month, OTC excluded", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86, $7,992.94", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$10,913.78 (0.5% floor = 532.86 of AGI)", + "source": "charitable_deduction 10,913.78 = 11,446.65 - 0.5% x 106,572.56 (gov.irs.deductions.itemized.charity.floor.amount = 0.005) (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$11,969.80 standard path; either omission alone still itemizes", + "source": "tax_liability_if_not_itemizing 11,969.80; no_part_b 11,265.27 itemizes; no_state_tax 11,758.09 itemizes; no_pb_no_state_tax 11,969.80, tax_unit_itemizes False (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); README grid in reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md)" + }, + { + "figure": "$11,642.16 (no Part B, liability in SALT)", + "source": "no_pb_liability reading: state_withheld_income_tax fixed point 3,654.15, income_tax_before_refundable_credits 11,642.16 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); README grid 'none | liability 11,642.16')" + }, + { + "figure": "kimi-k3 11,969.85; gpt-5.6-sol 11,970; gpt-6-astra 11,642.20; gpt-6.1-sol 11,642.09", + "source": "predictions.csv.gz and reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv" + }, + { + "figure": "$18,150 + $1,000; $4,105.65; $4,872.35; $72,807.33; $10,729.61", + "source": "standard_deduction 18,150; charitable_deduction_for_non_itemizers 1,000; additional_senior_deduction 4,105.65; qualified_business_income_deduction 4,872.35; taxable_income 72,807.33; income_tax_before_refundable_credits 10,729.61 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "field": "case_annotation" + }, + "problem": "Group (4) wrong on both halves: va_itemized_deductions excludes OTC and uses charitable after the floor; the models' shortfall is the imputed Part B premium (net of a skipped floor at $17,518). The $19,419.94 sentence presented the premium-dependent figure without saying so.", + "evidence": [], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$19,419.94 = $10,913.78 + $4,441.86 + $4,064.29, state income tax left out", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_itemized_deductions.py lines 16-41 add itemized_deductions_less_salt, real_estate_taxes and state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax, then subtract state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax when federal AGI <= applicable amount ($340,200 single, 2026)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, OTC left out", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + }, + { + "figure": "$16,985 (no Part B, floor)", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions no_part_b 16,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$17,518 (no Part B, no floor)", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$18,985 (OTC instead of Part B, floor)", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions otc_in_other_no_pb 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,518 (OTC instead of Part B, no floor)", + "source": "19,518.00 = 11,446.65 + 4,007.06 + 4,064.29 (computed)" + }, + { + "figure": "$3,654.15; gpt-6-astra 3,654.16, gpt-6.1-sol 3,654.66 (within a dollar)", + "source": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits no_part_b 3,654.15 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); predictions.csv.gz gpt-6-astra 3654.16, gpt-6.1-sol 3654.66; reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv tags both within $1 of no_part_b" + }, + { + "figure": "group (1): standard deduction only without both, $4,127.67", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, va_deductions = va_standard_deduction 8,750, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 4,127.67; no_part_b, no_state_tax and no_pb_liability all itemize (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_deductions.py: where(tax_unit_itemizes, va_itemized_deductions, va_standard_deduction)" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30 estimate in federal SALT", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$65,593.83, $3,514.15", + "source": "va_taxable_income 65,593.83; 720 + 5.75% x 48,593.83 = 3,514.15 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "field": "explanation" + }, + "problem": "Mislabel: 'itemized deductions totaling $33,765.23' includes QBI and the senior deduction; the itemization comparison is $24,787.23 against $18,150 + $1,000 (both paths also take QBI and the senior deduction: taxable_income_deductions_if_not_itemizing 28,128 = 18,150 + 1,000 + 4,105.65 + 4,872.35). SALT and medical rest on unlisted inputs.", + "evidence": [], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$33,765.23 = $24,787.23 + $4,872.35 + $4,105.65", + "source": "taxable_income_deductions 33,765.23; itemized_taxable_income_deductions 24,787.23 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$22 above-the-line", + "source": "above_the_line_deductions 22 = loss_ald 22 (the -$22 long-term capital loss) (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, OTC excluded, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$1,240.19", + "source": "tax_liability_if_not_itemizing 11,969.80 - tax_liability_if_itemizing 10,729.61 = 1,240.19 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "field": "explanation" + }, + "problem": "'state/local taxes' wrong: va_itemized_deductions subtracts state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (lines 31-33); the medical component includes the imputed Part B premium.", + "evidence": [], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$19,419.94 components", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, OTC excluded", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,828.80 subtraction", + "source": "va_subtractions 19,828.80 = tax_unit_taxable_social_security 19,828.80 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "'non-deductible OTC purchases' is a legal label; SALT point.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "SALT (real estate tax 4,064, under cap)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "charitable 10,766+681=11,447" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "medical expenses 10,000+2,000=12,000 less 7.5% AGI (7,993) = 4,007" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "Itemized total ~19,518" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "Taxable income ~ 106,573 - 23,624 - 4,872 = 78,077" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "total ~11,889" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=8971.0", + "quote": "tax ~= 8,971 after estimation of bracket inflation adjustments" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, OTC not counted", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "'non-deductible OTC purchases' legal label; 'put only $3,524 of state income tax' presents the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11231.0", + "quote": "SALT = real estate 4,064 + VA income tax 3,524 = 7,588" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11231.0", + "quote": "medical 12,000 less 7.5% AGI = 4,007" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11231.0", + "quote": "Itemized deductions (22,510" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11231.0", + "quote": "Taxable income ≈ 75,085" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$3,524 = its VA answer", + "source": "prediction 3524.0 for state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,277", + "source": "24,787.23 - 22,510 = 2,277.23" + }, + { + "figure": "tax rise", + "source": "11,231 - 10,729.61 = 501.39; 22% x 2,277.23 = 500.99" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "'the $9,431.59 actually paid' presents the withholding estimate as tax the household paid.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=5489.0", + "quote": "SALT capped 10,000 (real estate 4,064 only, no state income tax listed beyond cap)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=5489.0", + "quote": "Total itemized = 10,000+0+11,447+2,007 = 23,454" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=5489.0", + "quote": "= 10,711" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=5489.0", + "quote": "Final estimate value = 5489" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,105.65", + "source": "additional_senior_deduction 4,105.65 = 6,000 - 6% x (106,572.56 - 75,000) (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "'non-deductible OTC purchases' legal label; SALT point; 'exactly' (22% x 2,247.63 = 494.48 vs 494.49) softened to 'matches'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11224.1", + "quote": "SALT $7,618.50" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11224.1", + "quote": "medical above 7.5% of AGI $4,007" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11224.1", + "quote": "Itemized deductions are $22,539.60" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$3,554.50 = its VA answer; 7,618.50 - 4,064 = 3,554.50", + "source": "prediction 3554.5 for state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,247.63; $494.49", + "source": "24,787.23 - 22,539.60 = 2,247.63; 22% = 494.48; 11,224.10 - 10,729.61 = 494.49" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "'correct SALT $9,431.59' presents the withholding estimate as correct; incomplete account of the $19,518.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12900.0", + "quote": "Medical expense deduction: 12,000 - 7.5%*106,573(~7,993) = ~4,007" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12900.0", + "quote": "SALT 4,064 (capped 10,000, actual 4,064) + medical 4,007 + charitable 11,447 = 19,518" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12900.0", + "quote": "Taxable income = AGI 106,573 - itemized 19,518 - QBI deduction 4,872 = 82,183" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12900.0", + "quote": "10% up to 12,150; 12% to 49,400" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "19,518 = 11,447 + 4,064 + 4,007", + "source": "model arithmetic; engine 19,518.00 = 11,446.65 + 4,007.06 + 4,064.29" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point; Part B premium is engine-imputed.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11522.0", + "quote": "Itemizing (about $21,188: medical above 7.5% of AGI, real estate tax and VA income tax, charity)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11522.0", + "quote": "Taxable income is about $76,407" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$3,599", + "source": "24,787.23 - 21,188 = 3,599.23" + }, + { + "figure": "$792", + "source": "11,522 - 10,729.61 = 792.39" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "SALT point ('understated state income tax' presents the estimate as the household's tax); Part B premium is engine-imputed.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-pro, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12554.78", + "quote": "Itemized deductions of $21,069.57 (medical $2,007.04 + charitable $11,447 + SALT $7,615.53)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-pro, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12554.78", + "quote": "taxable income $80,630.83" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-pro, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12554.78", + "quote": "$1,220 + $4,464 + $6,870.78" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$3,551.53 = its VA answer; 7,615.53 - 4,064 = 3,551.53", + "source": "prediction 3551.53 for state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.5-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14029.0", + "quote": "itemized deductions of $19,256, a personal exemption of $5,050" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.5-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14029.0", + "quote": "2026 sunset tax brackets" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59, $4,064.29", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point; Part B premium engine-imputed; the itemized attribution is an inference.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.6-terra, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11540.0", + "quote": "Single-filer federal taxable income reflects wages, partnership income, taxable retirement income, taxable Social Security, itemized deductions, the QBI deduction, and the age-65 additional deduction" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$76,490; $3,684", + "source": "(11,540 - 10,729.61) / 0.22 = 3,683.58; 72,807.33 + 3,683.58 = 76,490.91; 1,240 + 4,560 + 22% x 26,090 = 11,539.80" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point; the row now says the answer matches the no-premium, liability reading.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-astra, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11642.2", + "quote": "estimated itemized deductions are $20,639.33 after the charitable floor, the senior deduction is $4,105.63, and the qualified business income deduction is $4,872.40" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$20,639.28, $3,654.15, $11,642.16", + "source": "no_pb_liability: itemized_taxable_income_deductions 20,639.28, state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax 3,654.15, income_tax_before_refundable_credits 11,642.16 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv tags gpt-6-astra no_part_b|liability" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,147.90; $912.54; $912.59", + "source": "24,787.23 - 20,639.33 = 4,147.90; 22% = 912.54; 11,642.20 - 10,729.61 = 912.59" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point; inferred itemized figure presented as the model's.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6.1-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11642.09", + "quote": "After itemized deductions, the phased-down senior deduction and a $4,872.40 qualified-business-income deduction, applying the 2026 brackets produces this tax" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$11,642.16, $20,639.28, $3,654.15", + "source": "no_pb_liability (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv tags gpt-6.1-sol no_part_b|liability" + }, + { + "figure": "$912.48; $4,148", + "source": "11,642.09 - 10,729.61 = 912.48; / 0.22 = 4,147.64" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "SALT point; added the medical component the itemized total also rests on.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-build-0.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12263.0", + "quote": "itemized deductions total 22264 (4007 medical after 7.5% floor, 6810 SALT including 4064 real estate taxes and 2746 state tax, 11447 charitable)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-build-0.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12263.0", + "quote": "taxable income 79437" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$2,746 = its VA answer", + "source": "prediction 2746.0 for state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,007 = 12,000 - 7,993", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "$5,367.59 -> $5,367.30 and SALT point; Part B premium engine-imputed.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (ox-alpha, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12190.0", + "quote": "exceeding itemized (≈19,500)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (ox-alpha, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12190.0", + "quote": "Taxable income after 20% QBI deduction (4,872 on K‑1 income) ≈ 79,445" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$79,445", + "source": "106,572.56 - 18,150 - 4,105.65 - 4,872.35 = 79,444.56" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Misstates what the model's response contains.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=9637.85", + "quote": "Estimated federal AGI is 96572.80, including 19828.80 of taxable Social Security" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=9637.85", + "quote": "4705.63 phased senior deduction" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=9637.85", + "quote": "After the 18150 age-adjusted standard deduction, 1000 nonitemizer charitable deduction" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$106,572.56", + "source": "adjusted_gross_income 106,572.56 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); 106,572.56 - 96,572.80 = 9,999.76" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,705.63 vs $4,105.65", + "source": "6,000 - 6% x (96,572.80 - 75,000) = 4,705.63; engine additional_senior_deduction 4,105.65" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=10268.0", + "quote": "Standard deduction for single filer age 69 in 2026 is $28,300" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=10268.0", + "quote": "$11,600 × 10% = $1,160" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=10268.0", + "quote": "Medicare tax on earned income is approximately $336.48" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=10268.0", + "quote": "Adjusting for estimated quarterly safe harbor calculations and actual withholding scenarios: $10,268" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$72,807.33, $24,787.23", + "source": "taxable_income 72,807.33; itemized_taxable_income_deductions 24,787.23 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.8, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11210.0", + "quote": "mortgage interest (on $95,618 balance ~ assume ~$4,500), real estate taxes $4,064 (SALT capped, under $10k)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.8, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11210.0", + "quote": "Tax = $1,240 + $4,560 + 0.22*(77,683-50,400=27,283)=$6,002 = $11,802" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.8, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11210.0", + "quote": "Approx federal tax before refundable credits ~$11,210 after rounding/SS taxable adjustments" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=6900.0", + "quote": "Itemized deductions: real estate taxes 4,064 + charitable 11,447 + medical above 7.5% AGI (10,000 - 7,864 = ~2,136) => ~17,650" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=6900.0", + "quote": "Standard (18,150) plus senior bonus 6,000 = 24,150 exceeds itemized, so standard used" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=6900.0", + "quote": "Tax on ~76,100 for single 2026 brackets ≈ 11,900?" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=6900.0", + "quote": "estimated liability ≈ 6,900 after nonrefundable credits" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "without both, standard deduction", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, income_tax_before_refundable_credits 11,969.80 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-4.6, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11384.0", + "quote": "Mortgage interest: mortgage balance $95,618 → estimated interest at ~7% = ~$6,693" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-4.6, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11384.0", + "quote": "Revised itemized = $4,064 + $6,693 + $10,766 + $681 + $4,007 = $26,211." + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-4.6, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11384.0", + "quote": "Final taxable income = $80,362 - $4,872 = $75,490." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-flash-0731, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13033.0", + "quote": "1/2 SE tax 1,721 = 104,874" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-flash-0731, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13033.0", + "quote": "Itemized deductions: charitable 11,447 + real estate tax 4,064 + medical over 7.5% AGI 2,134 = 17,645 (exceeds standard)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-flash-0731, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13033.0", + "quote": "taxable = 82,357" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$9,550", + "source": "82,357 - 72,807.33 = 9,549.67" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4.1-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12247.49", + "quote": "Federal taxable income after itemized deductions and QBI deduction is $79,372.69" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$22,328; $2,460; $6,565", + "source": "106,572.56 - 79,372.69 - 4,872.35 = 22,327.52; 24,787.23 - 22,327.52 = 2,459.71; 79,372.69 - 72,807.33 = 6,565.36" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13919.0", + "quote": "Calculated based on gross income of $110,094 (wages, partnership income, IRA, pension, Social Security, interest) minus adjustments and itemized deductions (real estate taxes, charitable donations, medical expenses). Taxable income of approximately $81,300" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$12,598", + "source": "1,240 + 4,560 + 22% x (81,300 - 50,400) = 12,598.00 (fed_tax in build.py)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.1-pro-preview, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14556.0", + "quote": "Calculated based on federal AGI of $106,573 minus itemized deductions and personal exemptions under 2026 pre-TCJA law." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$72,807.33; $10,729.61", + "source": "taxable_income 72,807.33; income_tax_before_refundable_credits 10,729.61 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.5-flash-lite, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=9334.0", + "quote": "Federal income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits is $9,334." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$66,460; $6,350", + "source": "50,400 + (9,334 - 5,800) / 0.22 = 66,463.64; 72,807.33 - 66,463.64 = 6,343.69; the engine's deductions are at most 33,765.23 in every reading (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.6-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12444.12", + "quote": "Subtracting $22,018.04 in itemized deductions (medical expenses above 7.5% threshold, real estate taxes, state income tax, and charitable contributions) and $4,872.40 for the QBI deduction results in a federal taxable income of $79,682.36" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,769; $6,875", + "source": "24,787.23 - 22,018.04 = 2,769.19; 79,682.36 - 72,807.33 = 6,875.03" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.7-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13104.09", + "quote": "taking the standard deduction (with additional elderly amount) and the QBI deduction" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$83,550.21; $13,093.05; $11; $10,742.88", + "source": "106,572.56 - 18,150 - 4,872.35 = 83,550.21; 1,240 + 4,560 + 22% x 33,150.21 = 13,093.05; 13,104.09 - 13,093.05 = 11.04; 83,550.21 - 72,807.33 = 10,742.88 (asserted in build.py)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.8-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14650.0", + "quote": "Deductions are itemized at $17,518 ($11,447 charitable gifts, $4,064 real estate taxes, and $2,007 medical expenses exceeding 7.5% of AGI)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$89,055", + "source": "106,573 - 17,518 = 89,055" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (glm-5.3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13292.0", + "quote": "Itemizing (SALT 4,064 + charitable 11,447 + medical 10,000 less 7.5%-of-AGI floor of 7,993 = 2,007) gives 17,518" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (glm-5.3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=13292.0", + "quote": "Taxable income = 106,573 - 17,518 - 4,872 = 84,183" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$11,376", + "source": "84,183 - 72,807.33 = 11,375.67" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=15330.0", + "quote": "itemized deductions are about $17,518 and the 2026 personal exemption leaves about $83,700 of taxable income" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.6-luna, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=9456.0", + "quote": "the age-adjusted standard deduction, senior deduction, and QBI deduction leave approximately $67,020 taxable income" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,787", + "source": "72,807.33 - 67,020 = 5,787.33" + }, + { + "figure": "smaller path", + "source": "taxable_income_deductions_if_not_itemizing 28,128 < taxable_income_deductions_if_itemizing 33,765.23 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier finding 1 / missed item: household-fact framing; the answer equals the engine's no-premium, no-state-tax reading.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.6-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11970.0", + "quote": "the 2026 standard and age deductions, senior deduction, non-itemizer charitable deduction, and QBI deduction produce taxable income of about 78445 and tax of 11970" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$11,969.80 on $78,444.56", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, taxable_income 78,444.56, income_tax_before_refundable_credits 11,969.80 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv tags gpt-5.6-sol no_part_b|zero" + }, + { + "figure": "$1,240.19", + "source": "11,969.80 - 10,729.61" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-luna, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12461.0", + "quote": "Estimated federal taxable income after itemized deductions and the QBI deduction is about $80,675" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$21,026; $3,761; $1,731", + "source": "106,572.56 - 80,675 - 4,872.35 = 21,025.21; 24,787.23 - 21,026 = 3,761.23; 12,461 - 10,729.61 = 1,731.39; 22% x (80,675 - 72,807.33) = 1,730.89" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=10234.0", + "quote": "Calculated taxable income after deductions and credits leads to this federal tax liability before refundables." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$70,555; $2,250", + "source": "50,400 + (10,234 - 5,800) / 0.22 = 70,554.55; 72,807.33 - 70,554.55 = 2,252.78" + }, + { + "figure": "$33,765.23", + "source": "taxable_income_deductions 33,765.23 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier missed item: household-fact framing.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12279.0", + "quote": "2026 standard deduction is $16,100 plus $2,050 additional aged amount, which exceeds itemized deductions" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.7, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=12279.0", + "quote": "Taxable income of $79,444.77 is in the 22% bracket" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier finding 1 / missed item: household-fact framing and 'correct'; the answer equals the engine's no-premium, no-state-tax reading.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (kimi-k3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11969.85", + "quote": "standard deduction 18,150 (16,100 single + 2,050 age-65 addition, exceeding itemized deductions of 17,518)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (kimi-k3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11969.85", + "quote": "OBBBA senior deduction 4,105.63 (6,000 reduced by 6% of MAGI over 75,000)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (kimi-k3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11969.85", + "quote": "non-itemizer charitable deduction 1,000 → taxable income 78,444.77" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (kimi-k3, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=11969.85", + "quote": "2026 single tax = 5,800 + 22% × 28,044.77 = 11,969.85" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$5,367.30, $9,431.59", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80, $4,441.86", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv); medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$11,969.80; $1,240.19", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, income_tax_before_refundable_credits 11,969.80; 11,969.80 - 10,729.61 = 1,240.19 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv tags kimi-k3 no_part_b|zero" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5.5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3670.0", + "quote": "Itemized deductions (about $17,518) exceed the VA standard deduction, and the $930 exemption is applied. Taxable income is about $68,296" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-5.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "Itemizing (about $21,188: medical above 7.5% of AGI, real estate tax and VA income tax, charity)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,419.94, $10,913.78, $4,441.86", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "OTC", + "source": "The engine also leaves the $2,000 of OTC expenses out: itemized_medical_expenses adds only medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums and other_medical_expenses" + }, + { + "figure": "$68,296", + "source": "86,744 - 17,518 - 930 = 68,296" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.6-flash, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3623.52", + "quote": "Subtracting $17,518.04 in state itemized deductions and $1,730 in personal and age exemptions leaves Virginia taxable income of $67,495.96, resulting in $3,623.52" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,419.94 etc.", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$109", + "source": "3,623.52 - 3,514.15 = 109.37" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.7-flash, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3623.52", + "quote": "Virginia income tax calculated on VA taxable income after deducting Social Security, itemized deductions, and personal exemptions. value = 3623.52" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "implied $17,518", + "source": "3,623.52 -> taxable 17,000 + 2,903.52 / 0.0575 = 67,496.00; 86,744 - 1,730 - 67,496.00 = 17,518.00" + }, + { + "figure": "$1,902", + "source": "67,496.00 - 65,593.83 = 1,902.17" + }, + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.8-flash, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3624.0", + "quote": "itemized deductions ($17,518), and personal and age exemptions ($1,730), giving Virginia taxable income of $67,496" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.8-flash, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "Deductions are itemized at $17,518 ($11,447 charitable gifts, $4,064 real estate taxes, and $2,007 medical expenses exceeding 7.5% of AGI)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,419.94 etc.", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3624.0", + "quote": "allows itemized deductions of $17,518 and personal/age exemptions of $1,730, giving VA taxable income of about $67,496" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$1,902", + "source": "67,496 - 65,593.83 = 1,902.17" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Repeats the Virginia note's wrong group (4).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3624.0", + "quote": "minus VA itemized of 17518 and exemptions of 1730 yields TI of 67496" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.5, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "itemized deductions of 21142 (medical after 7.5% floor + uncapped SALT of property tax plus VA tax + charity)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$17,518 decomposition", + "source": "17,518.00 = charitable without floor 11,446.65 (10,766 + 680.65) + medical without Part B 2,007.06 + real estate tax 4,064.29; gap to 19,419.94 is 1,901.94 = 2,434.80 - 532.86 (computed in build.py from /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$1,902", + "source": "67,496 - 65,593.83 = 1,902.17" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong: the floor and the $10,000 base are the engine's own; the gap is the imputed premium.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-astra, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3654.16", + "quote": "Estimated allowable itemized deductions are $16,985.18 and personal and age exemptions total $1,730" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-astra, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3654.16", + "quote": "Virginia brackets applied to $68,028.82" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-astra, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "estimated itemized deductions are $20,639.33 after the charitable floor" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$16,985.14; $3,654.15", + "source": "no_part_b va_itemized_deductions 16,985.14, state output 3,654.15 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/model_answers.csv" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,435", + "source": "68,028.82 - 65,593.83 = 2,434.99" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong: the floor and the $10,000 base are the engine's own; the gap is the imputed premium.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6.1-sol, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3654.66", + "quote": "Using $16,985.18 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of personal and age exemptions yields this tax" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$16,985.14; $3,654.15", + "source": "no_part_b (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$68,028.82; $3,654.16; $0.50", + "source": "86,744 - 16,985.18 - 1,730 = 68,028.82; 720 + 5.75% x 51,028.82 = 3,654.16; 3,654.66 - 3,654.16 = 0.50" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong: the floor is the engine's own; gap = 2,434.80 - 2,000 = 434.80.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3524.0", + "quote": "age deduction (12,000 reduced dollar-for-dollar by AFAGI 86,744 over 75,000 → 256)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3524.0", + "quote": "VA itemized deductions excluding state income tax 18,985" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3524.0", + "quote": "VA taxable income ≈ 65,773" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5.1, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "charitable 11,447 less 0.5% AGI floor = 10,914; medical 12,000 less 7.5% AGI = 4,007" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$18,985 vs engine 18,985.14 (OTC, no Part B)", + "source": "otc_in_other_no_pb va_itemized_deductions 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$435; $179", + "source": "19,419.94 - 18,985 = 434.94; 65,773 - 65,593.83 = 179.17" + }, + { + "figure": "$50,000 single / $75,000 joint", + "source": "gov.states.va.tax.income.subtractions.age_deduction.threshold (SINGLE 50,000; JOINT 75,000)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong engine medical figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.5-flash, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3746.0", + "quote": "Subtracting itemized deductions of $15,511 and a personal exemption of $1,600 yields taxable income of $69,633" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$15,511 = 11,447 + 4,064", + "source": "15,510.94 = 11,446.65 + 4,064.29 (computed)" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86, $7,992.94", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,419.94", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong diagnosis and wrong engine medical figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-sol, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3043.16", + "quote": "itemized deductions for charitable giving, property tax, and deductible medical expenses, plus personal and age exemptions, leave about 57229 taxable" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-sol, federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, same response)", + "quote": "Estimated federal AGI is 96572.80, including 19828.80 of taxable Social Security" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "reconstruction", + "source": "VA AGI 96,572.80 - 19,828.80 = 76,744.00; charitable 11,446.65 - 0.5% x 96,572.80 (482.86) = 10,963.78; medical 10,000 - 7.5% x 96,572.80 (7,242.96) = 2,757.04; + 4,064.29 = 17,785.12; 76,744 - 17,785.12 - 1,730 = 57,228.88" + }, + { + "figure": "old reconstruction fails", + "source": "86,743.77 - 11,446.65 - 4,064.29 - 12,000 - 1,730 = 57,502.83, not 57,229" + }, + { + "figure": "$3,033; $10", + "source": "720 + 5.75% x (57,229 - 17,000) = 3,033.17; 3,043.16 - 3,033.17 = 9.99" + }, + { + "figure": "$4,441.86", + "source": "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56 (7,992.94); without Part B 2,007.06; OTC counted without Part B 4,007.06 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Wrong: $4,180 is not in this model's response; the $17,518 reconstruction is about $3 off.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.1-pro-preview, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3726.0", + "quote": "Virginia state tax is calculated on Virginia taxable income after subtracting taxable Social Security and state itemized deductions. value = 3726" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$69,278; $17,466", + "source": "17,000 + (3,726 - 720) / 0.0575 = 69,278.26; 86,743.77 - 69,278.26 = 17,465.51" + }, + { + "figure": "$3,722.98", + "source": "86,743.77 - 17,518.00 = 69,225.77; 720 + 5.75% x 52,225.77 = 3,722.98" + }, + { + "figure": "$21,149.94", + "source": "19,419.94 + 1,730" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=0.0", + "quote": "The household's federal AGI is approximately $27,752" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-haiku-4.5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=0.0", + "quote": "after the standard deduction ($28,000 for head age 69 in 2026)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$86,743.77; $19,419.94; $1,730; $65,593.83", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_agi 86,743.77, va_total_exemptions 1,730, va_taxable_income 65,593.83" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=1854.0", + "quote": "Standard deduction (single 2026): $8,750. VA taxable income ~77,994." + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.7, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=1854.0", + "quote": "Final state tax ≈ 4,227. value = 1854" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "itemizes federally in the engine", + "source": "tax_unit_itemizes True in reference, no_part_b, no_state_tax and no_pb_liability; False only in no_pb_no_state_tax (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$19,419.94", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.8, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4014.0", + "quote": "VA standard deduction (2026) $8,500 single. Personal exemption $930." + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-opus-4.8, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4014.0", + "quote": "Estimated VA tax before refundable credits ≈ 4,014" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$74,300; $12,450", + "source": "17,000 + (4,014 - 720) / 0.0575 = 74,286.96; 86,744 - 74,286.96 = 12,457.04" + }, + { + "figure": "$21,149.94", + "source": "19,419.94 + 1,730" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-4.6, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=2483.0", + "quote": "Virginia standard deduction (2026): $9,000 for single filer" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-sonnet-4.6, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=2483.0", + "quote": "Total nonrefundable credits = $930 + $800 = $1,730." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "itemizes federally in the engine", + "source": "tax_unit_itemizes True in reference, no_part_b, no_state_tax and no_pb_liability; False only in no_pb_no_state_tax (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$99", + "source": "1,730 x 5.75% = 99.48" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-pro, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3551.53", + "quote": "minus age deduction $12,000 = $74,744.00. Standard deduction $8,500 -> taxable $66,244.00." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$65,593.83", + "source": "va_taxable_income 65,593.83 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (deepseek-v4-pro-0813, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3508.52", + "quote": "itemized deductions $19,518.04; personal/age exemptions $1,730; taxable $65,495.96" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$98.10; $5.63", + "source": "19,518.04 - 19,419.94 = 98.10; 3,514.15 - 3,508.52 = 5.63" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3-flash-preview, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3209.43", + "quote": "federal itemized deductions (excluding state taxes, $23,948.6), and a $800 exemption" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$4,528.66", + "source": "23,948.60 - 19,419.94 = 4,528.66; no reading gives Virginia itemized deductions above 19,419.94 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4180.0", + "quote": "Virginia state tax applied to the taxable income adjusted for state-specific deductions and exemptions." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$77,170", + "source": "17,000 + (4,180 - 720) / 0.0575 = 77,173.91" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gemini-3.5-flash-lite, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=5617.0", + "quote": "State income tax before refundable credits in Virginia is $5,617." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$102,200; $4,400", + "source": "17,000 + (5,617 - 720) / 0.0575 = 102,165.22; 106,573 - 102,165.22 = 4,407.78" + }, + { + "figure": "Social Security subtraction", + "source": "va_subtractions 19,828.80 = tax_unit_taxable_social_security (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (glm-5.2, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14036.62", + "quote": "After the VA standard deduction (~$9,000) and personal exemption (~$930)" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (glm-5.2, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=14036.62", + "quote": "applies a pension income deduction for taxpayers age 65+" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$76,800; $4,200; $248,000", + "source": "106,573 - 19,829 - 9,000 - 930 = 76,814; 720 + 5.75% x 59,814 = 4,159.31; 17,000 + (14,036.62 - 720) / 0.0575 = 248,593.39" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier missed item: federal itemizing presented as a household fact and $19,419.94 as 'allowed'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-5.6-sol, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4174.0", + "quote": "after the 8750 standard deduction and 930 personal exemption, taxable income is about 77064 and Virginia tax rounds to 4174" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "standard deduction without both; $76,263.77; $4,127.67", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, va_deductions = va_standard_deduction 8,750, va_taxable_income 76,263.77, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 4,127.67 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_deductions.py: where(tax_unit_itemizes, va_itemized_deductions, va_standard_deduction)" + }, + { + "figure": "$800; $11,470", + "source": "77,064 - 76,263.77 = 800.23; 77,064 - 65,593.83 = 11,470.17 (asserted in build.py)" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (gpt-6-luna, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3397.0", + "quote": "Estimated Virginia taxable income reflects the Virginia subtraction for Social Security, itemized deductions, and age and personal exemptions" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$63,560; $2,035", + "source": "17,000 + (3,397 - 720) / 0.0575 = 63,556.52; 65,593.83 - 63,556.52 = 2,037.31" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier finding 1 / missed item: 'In fact ... make the filer a federal itemizer' rests on the imputed premium.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (grok-4.7, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4142.0", + "quote": "With the federal standard deduction taken, Virginia uses its $8,500 standard deduction and exemptions of $1,730 ($930 plus $800 age 65+). Virginia taxable income is $76,514." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "standard deduction without both; $76,263.77", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, va_deductions = va_standard_deduction 8,750, va_taxable_income 76,263.77, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 4,127.67 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_deductions.py: where(tax_unit_itemizes, va_itemized_deductions, va_standard_deduction)" + }, + { + "figure": "$250; $10,920", + "source": "76,514 - 76,263.77 = 250.23; 76,514 - 65,593.83 = 10,920.17 (asserted in build.py)" + }, + { + "figure": "$16,985.14 < 19,150", + "source": "no_part_b va_itemized_deductions 16,985.14 = charitable 10,913.78 + medical 2,007.06 + real estate 4,064.29 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "inkling", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (inkling, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=3448.0", + "quote": "Virginia taxable income is approximately $64,446 after subtracting taxable Social Security, itemized deductions (~$19,647), and personal exemption ($930)" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$66,167; $1,148", + "source": "86,744 - 19,647 - 930 = 66,167; 65,593.83 - 64,446 = 1,147.83" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Verifier missed item: federal itemizing presented as a household fact.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (kimi-k3, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=4134.58", + "quote": "standard deduction 8,500 (consistency with federal non-itemizing) and exemptions of 1,860 (930 personal + 930 age-65 addition) yield taxable income 76,384" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "standard deduction without both; $76,263.77; $4,127.67", + "source": "no_pb_no_state_tax: tax_unit_itemizes False, va_deductions = va_standard_deduction 8,750, va_taxable_income 76,263.77, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 4,127.67 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household)); va_deductions.py: where(tax_unit_itemizes, va_itemized_deductions, va_standard_deduction)" + }, + { + "figure": "$120.23; $6.91", + "source": "76,384 - 76,263.77 = 120.23; 4,134.58 - 4,127.67 = 6.91 (asserted in build.py)" + }, + { + "figure": "$5,367.30", + "source": "the engine's state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax = state_withheld_income_tax = va_withheld_income_tax = 5,367.30 (Virginia rates on federal AGI less the $8,750 Virginia single standard deduction: 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30); SALT 9,431.59 = 4,064.29 + 5,367.30 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline)" + }, + { + "figure": "$2,434.80", + "source": "medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80 = 12 x $202.90 (gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium 2026); itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = other_medical_expenses 10,000 + medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums 2,434.80; OTC (2,000) not in itemized_medical_expenses (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household); reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv)" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (minimax-m3, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=0.0", + "quote": "state tax liability is reduced to approximately $0 for this low-income retiree" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$19,419.94", + "source": "va_itemized_deductions 19,419.94 = itemized_deductions_less_salt 15,355.64 (charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86) + real_estate_taxes 4,064.29; no Part B 16,985.14; OTC counted, no Part B 18,985.14 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/s114/engine_values.json (engine_s114.py: policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final, Scenario.to_pe_household))" + } + ] + }, + { + "key": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "field": "annotation" + }, + "problem": "Consistency standard (verifier finding 5): household-fact framing of the withholding estimate or the premium, or 'correct' on an estimate-based figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=2597.0", + "quote": "VA itemized ~19,518 after subtracting state income tax" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=2597.0", + "quote": "VA taxable income ~ 106,574 - 19,830 - 19,518 - 930 ~ 66,296" + }, + { + "source": "predictions.csv.gz explanation (claude-fable-5, state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits), prediction=2597.0", + "quote": "the estimated VA income tax before refundable credits is about 2,597" + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + { + "figure": "$958", + "source": "3,555 - 2,597 = 958" + } + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/salt.json b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/salt.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..df91a39f --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/rewrite_evidence/salt.json @@ -0,0 +1,5074 @@ +[ + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|case_annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $6,058.85 withholding estimate 'estimated CA income tax' as if it were the household's California tax, and faulted the rest for leaving out or understating 'the CA income-tax SALT component', when those models used no state income tax or their own California tax estimates, which are readings of an input the prompt never lists.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json (zero diagnostics); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json (no_local_sales.zero); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json scenario_022 federal note", + "state_sales_tax": 963.0, + "local_sales_tax": 192.6, + "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax": 1155.6, + "output_zero": 12192.29, + "output_zero_no_local_sales": 12234.66, + "exclusion_note_excerpt": "that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $192.60 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $12,234.66." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "policyengine-us 1.755.4: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "policyengine-us 1.755.4: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "15%/25%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "22%: rate", + "0.5%: rate", + "2%: rate", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,887.85: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14887.8516 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,829: household input real_estate_taxes = 8829.0 (scenarios.csv)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "14,847.67: engine reference.charitable_deduction = 14847.6660 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "2026: tax year label", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,439.65: computed/cited: published California reference for scenario_022 (reference_outputs.csv 2439.650146; r11 record frozen_value, engine_version policyengine-us 1.755.4; meta revisions excluded_outputs_rechecked kept_value) (value 2439.6501, tolerance 0.006)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,182.54: engine liability.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 26182.5352 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "1,968.81: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 1968.8054 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,013.38: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 12013.3809 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "1,155.60: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 963.0 + local 192.60) = 1155.6000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "963: engine reference.state_sales_tax = 963.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "192.60: engine reference.local_sales_tax = 192.6000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,234.66: computed/cited: zero reading without the local sales tax component (variants.json no_local_sales.zero, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json) (value 12234.6582, tolerance 0.006)", + "16: computed/cited: count: 15 committed rows with failure_subtype household_unit_or_filing_status plus qwen-3.7-max (QSS brackets in its explanation; subtype taxable_income_or_deductions); claude-sonnet-4.6, also QSS, is counted in the pre-TCJA 8 (value 16.0000, tolerance 0)", + "8: computed/cited: count: committed rows with failure_subtype thresholds_rates (claude-sonnet-4.6, deepseek-v4-pro, deepseek-v4-pro-0813, gemini-3-flash-preview, gemini-3.1-pro-preview, gemini-3.5-flash, grok-4.5, grok-build-0.1), each pre-TCJA in its explanation (value 8.0000, tolerance 0)", + "1,867: computed/cited: grok-4.7 federal explanation 'CA income tax $1,867' (lowest stated own-CA figure among the remaining 22) (value 1867.0000, tolerance 0)", + "2,700: computed/cited: kimi-k3 federal explanation 'CA income tax 2,700' (highest stated) (value 2700.0000, tolerance 0)", + "12,192: computed/cited: grok-4.7 and inkling federal predictions = 12192.0 (predictions.csv.gz) (value 12192.0000, tolerance 0) | also engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 12,192)", + "1: computed/cited: |12,192 - 12,192.29| = 0.29 < $1 (value 0.2852, tolerance 1.0) | also household input is_surviving_spouse = True (scenarios.csv)", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_notes.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|case_annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $8,484.41 withholding estimate '$8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax' and described the near misses as putting Massachusetts income tax 'a few hundred dollars low', when those models deducted their own Massachusetts tax estimates, several at or within cents of the engine's own $8,238.41 liability. The TCJA-sunset range ($29,100–$30,000) also left out one of the seven answers it describes ($30,160).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5%: rate", + "24%: rate", + "2026: tax year label", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "4,400: computed/cited: README mechanism: ma_withheld_income_tax = 5% of AGI above the $4,400 single exemption; 174,088.12 - 8,484.41/0.05 = 4,400.00 (value 4400.0000, tolerance 0.01)", + "16,900: engine reference.interest_deduction = 16900.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "16,100: engine 2026 single standard deduction | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 16100.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "17,966: computed/cited: 2026 single tax at $105,700 = 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 (value 17966.0000, tolerance 0.001)", + "37,359.47: computed/cited: 143,059.47 - 105,700 (value 37359.4688, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,232.90: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 8232.9004 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,992.64: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26992.6367 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "10,000: computed/cited: the expired SALT cap the models used (e.g. claude-opus-4.7 'SALT capped at $10,000') (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0)", + "27,923: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on AGI 174,088.12 - (16,900 + 10,000 cap) - QBI 1.24 = 147,186.88 -> 27,922.85 (value 27922.8513, tolerance 0.5)", + "28,969: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on AGI - (16,900 + 5,643) - QBI = 151,543.88 -> 28,968.53 (value 28968.5313, tolerance 0.5)", + "29,100: computed/cited: TCJA-sunset rows: 7 of 11 between glm-5.2 $29,110 and gemini-3.5-flash $30,160 (others 27,594.14, 28,131, 30,859, 33,033) (value 29110.0000, tolerance 15)", + "30,200: computed/cited: upper end: gemini-3.5-flash $30,160 (value 30160.0000, tolerance 50)", + "7,389: computed/cited: household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums 7,389.28 (value 7389.2800, tolerance 0.5) | also household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums = 7389.27587890625 (scenarios.csv), rounded", + "175,002: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv)", + "8,230: computed/cited: near-miss SALT figures: claude-fable-5.1 ~8,230; gpt-6-astra and gpt-6.1-sol 8,230.10 (implied by itemized 30,773.10) (value 8230.0000, tolerance 0.5)", + "8,390: computed/cited: upper end: glm-5.3 8,388.70; 7 of 9 stated near-miss figures lie in 8,230-8,390 (outliers deepseek-v4.1-flash 7,539.70, ox-alpha 8,538) (value 8388.7000, tolerance 1.5)", + "1: computed/cited: max |answer - 26,992.64| among the four = 0.65 (gpt-6-astra, gpt-6.1-sol 26,993.29) (value 0.6500, tolerance 1.0) | also household input has_esi = True (scenarios.csv)", + "26,992.59: computed/cited: gpt-5.6-sol federal prediction (value 26992.5900, tolerance 0.001)", + "26,992.66: computed/cited: claude-opus-5.5 federal prediction (value 26992.6600, tolerance 0.001)", + "26,993.29: computed/cited: gpt-6-astra and gpt-6.1-sol federal predictions (value 26993.2900, tolerance 0.001)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|explanation", + "problem": "Labelled $31,028.65 as itemized deductions, though it is itemized deductions ($31,027.41) plus the $1.24 QBI deduction, and did not say that the $14,127.41 of SALT rests on the engine's withholding estimate rather than a listed input (scenario_022's explanation says so for California).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "174,088.12: engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 174088.1250 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "175,002: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv)", + "110.12: computed/cited: household input non_qualified_dividend_income (value 110.1176, tolerance 0.006) | also household input non_qualified_dividend_income = 110.11764526367188 (scenarios.csv)", + "56: household input taxable_interest_income = 56.0 (scenarios.csv)", + "1,080: computed/cited: household input short_term_capital_gains = -1080 (scenarios.csv) (value 1080.0000, tolerance 0)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,028.65: engine reference.taxable_income_deductions = 31028.6504 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "16,900: engine reference.interest_deduction = 16900.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "1.24: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 1.2445 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "4,400: computed/cited: README mechanism: 5% of AGI above the $4,400 exemption (value 4400.0000, tolerance 0.01)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "30,514.85: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on AGI - 16,100 standard deduction - QBI 1.24 = 157,986.88 (value 30514.8513, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-fable-5|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left out 'the roughly $6,059 of California income tax that counts under the $40,400 cap'; that figure is the engine's withholding estimate, and the model, which said withholding was unknown, took the no-payment reading.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12327.0, + "explanation": "Filing status: surviving spouse... actually a 77-year-old with no dependents cannot use qualifying surviving spouse status without a dependent child, so treated as single filer. Income: wages 52,635 + taxable interest 50 + taxable pension 30,989 + rental income 4,550 + miscellaneous 3,300 = 91,524 before Social Security. Social Security taxability: provisional income = 91,524 + 371 tax-exempt + 10,367.5 (half of 20,735) ≈ 102,263, well above 34,000 threshold, so 85% taxable = 17,625. AGI ≈ 109,149. Itemized deductions: SALT (state income tax withheld unknown, real estate taxes 8,829 capped within 10,000 SALT limit) = 8,829; mortgage interest: only balance given, no interest paid listed, so 0; charitable 14,693 + 700 = 15,393; medical expenses (premiums 2,416 + other 500 + OTC 500 = 3,416) less 7.5% AGI floor (8,186) = 0. Itemized ≈ 24,222 exceeds 2026 single standard deduction (~16,100 + ~2,050 aged addition ≈ 18,150), so itemize 24,222 plus senior bonus deduction $6,000 (OBBBA, AGI under 75k threshold phaseout: phases out above 75,000 MAGI at 6%, reduction = 6% × (109,149−75,000) = 2,049, so bonus ≈ 3,951). QBI deduction on rental: 20% × 4,550 = 910. Taxable income ≈ 109,149 − 24,222 − 3,951 − 910 = 80,066. 2026 single brackets (est.): 10% to 12,400; 12% to 50,400; 22% above. Tax = 1,240 + 4,560 + 22% × (80,066 − 50,400) = 1,240 + 4,560 + 6,527 = 12,327. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 4358... correcting: tax computed is 12,327, which is the value. value = 12327" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 3162.0, + "explanation": "CA 2026, surviving spouse (qualifying widow) filing status, age 77. CA AGI: wages 52,635 + taxable interest 50 + taxable pension 30,989 + rental 4,550 + misc income 3,300 = 91,524 (Social Security fully exempt in CA). CA itemized deductions: charitable cash 14,693 + non-cash 700 = 15,393; real estate taxes 8,829 (no SALT cap in CA); medical/health premiums (2,416+2,416+500+500=5,832) less 7.5% AGI floor (~6,864) = 0; unreimbursed employee expenses 8,351 less 2% AGI floor (~1,830) = 6,521; total itemized ~30,743, exceeding CA standard deduction (~11,700 joint-equivalent). Taxable income ~91,524 - 30,743 = 60,781. CA tax using 2026 joint/surviving-spouse brackets (1% to ~16,900; 2% to ~40,000; 4% to ~63,200): ~169 + 462 + 831 = ~1,462... after applying surviving spouse brackets tax computes to about 1,460; subtract personal exemption credit (~322 for joint incl. senior exemption ~161 extra = ~483): net ~980. However including senior exemption credit and joint exemption, final CA income tax before refundable credits computes to approximately 3,162 under full bracket schedule accounting. value = 3162" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json (zero diagnostics); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json (no_local_sales.zero); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json scenario_022 federal note", + "state_sales_tax": 963.0, + "local_sales_tax": 192.6, + "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax": 1155.6, + "output_zero": 12192.29, + "output_zero_no_local_sales": 12234.66, + "exclusion_note_excerpt": "that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $192.60 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $12,234.66." + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951) | also model federal_explanation: \"...phases out above 75,000 MAGI at 6%, reduction = 6% × (109,149−75,000) = 2,049, so bonus ≈ 3,951). QBI deduction on rental: 20% × 4,550 = 910. Taxable ...\"", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"... 6% × (109,149−75,000) = 2,049, so bonus ≈ 3,951). QBI deduction on rental: 20% × 4,550 = 910. Taxable income ≈ 109,149 − 24,222 − 3,951 − 910 = 80,06...\"", + "8,829: household input real_estate_taxes = 8829.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"... 109,149. Itemized deductions: SALT (state income tax withheld unknown, real estate taxes 8,829 capped within 10,000 SALT limit) = 8,829; mortgage int...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...+ other 500 + OTC 500 = 3,416) less 7.5% AGI floor (8,186) = 0. Itemized ≈ 24,222 exceeds 2026 single standard deduction (~16,100 + ~2,050 aged additi...\"", + "24,222: model federal_explanation: \"...premiums 2,416 + other 500 + OTC 500 = 3,416) less 7.5% AGI floor (8,186) = 0. Itemized ≈ 24,222 exceeds 2026 single standard deduction (~16,100 + ~2,...\"", + "80,066: model federal_explanation: \"...deduction on rental: 20% × 4,550 = 910. Taxable income ≈ 109,149 − 24,222 − 3,951 − 910 = 80,066. 2026 single brackets (est.): 10% to 12,400; 12% to 5...\"", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "1,155.60: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 963.0 + local 192.60) = 1155.6000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "963: engine reference.state_sales_tax = 963.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "192.60: engine reference.local_sales_tax = 192.6000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,234.66: computed/cited: zero reading without the local sales tax component (variants.json no_local_sales.zero, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json) (value 12234.6582, tolerance 0.006)", + "12,327: computed/cited: model federal prediction 12327.0 (value 12327.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...0,400; 22% above. Tax = 1,240 + 4,560 + 22% × (80,066 − 50,400) = 1,240 + 4,560 + 6,527 = 12,327. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 4358... corr...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-fable-5.1|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5.1, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7470.65, + "explanation": "Surviving-spouse filer (joint brackets). Non-SS income = 52,635 wages + 3,300 misc + 4,550 rental + 50 interest + 30,989 pension = 91,524; provisional income 101,891.5 makes 85% of Social Security taxable (17,624.75). AGI = 109,148.75. Deductions: 2026 joint standard deduction 32,200 + 1,650 aged = 33,850, plus 6,000 senior deduction, 910 QBI deduction (20% of rental income), and 2,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction; itemizing (charity 15,393 + property tax 8,829 + state tax) would be lower. Taxable income = 66,388.75. Tax = 2,480 (10% on 24,800) + 12% x 41,588.75 = 7,470.65. No nonrefundable credits (elderly credit zeroed by Social Security). value = 7470.65" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5.1, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 960.95, + "explanation": "CA AGI excludes Social Security: 91,524. CA itemized deductions (charity 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829 = 24,222) exceed the CA standard deduction, so taxable income = 67,302. CA joint-schedule tax (2026 indexed brackets): 1% to ~22,157 (221.57) + 2% to ~52,528 (607.42) + 4% on remainder (590.96) = 1,419.95. Less exemption credits: two personal (~153 each) plus one senior (~153) = 459. Tax = 960.95. value = 960.95" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "6%: rate", + "33,850: model federal_explanation: \"...24.75). AGI = 109,148.75. Deductions: 2026 joint standard deduction 32,200 + 1,650 aged = 33,850, plus 6,000 senior deduction, 910 QBI deduction (20% ...\"", + "6,000: computed/cited: model explanation '6,000 senior deduction' (value 6000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"... 109,148.75. Deductions: 2026 joint standard deduction 32,200 + 1,650 aged = 33,850, plus 6,000 senior deduction, 910 QBI deduction (20% of rental inc...\"", + "75,000: computed/cited: phase-down start implied by engine senior deduction: AGI - (6,000 - 3,951.05)/0.06 = 75,000 (value 74999.9982, tolerance 0.05)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,832.27: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 24832.2656 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "18,150: engine 2026 single standard deduction 16,100 + aged 2,050 (standard_deduction for scenario_022) | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 18150.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-4.7|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for never counting 'CA income tax in SALT, which would have made itemizing ($29,735.52) the better choice': the prompt lists none, and the claim is wrong either way (under its $33,950 standard deduction itemizing still loses; as a single filer it wins without state tax).", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.7, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8419.0, + "explanation": "Filing status: qualifying surviving spouse (age 77). Income: wages $52,635 + taxable interest $50 + taxable pension $30,989 + rental $4,550 + misc $3,300 = $91,524. Social Security $20,735: provisional income = $91,524 + $371 (tax-exempt) + $10,367.50 = $102,262.50; well above $44,000 threshold for QSS, so 85% taxable = $17,624.75. Total income ≈ $109,149. \n\nAdjustments: none. AGI ≈ $109,149.\n\nQBI: rental qualified business income $4,550, 20% = $910 deduction.\n\nItemized deductions: real estate taxes capped at $10,000 → $8,829; mortgage interest (assume ~ balance $212,853 × ~6.5% ≈ not given, so $0 since interest not listed); charitable cash $14,693 + non-cash $700 = $15,393; medical: $2,416 + $2,416 + $500 = $5,332 (OTC not deductible); 7.5% AGI floor = $8,186, so medical deduction = $0. Misc employee expenses no longer deductible post-TCJA. Total itemized ≈ $8,829 + $15,393 = $24,222. Standard deduction for QSS 2026 ≈ $32,300 + $1,650 (age 65+) = $33,950. Standard deduction is larger, use $33,950.\n\nTaxable income before QBI = $109,149 − $33,950 = $75,199. Minus QBI $910 = $74,289.\n\n2026 QSS (MFJ) brackets (est): 10% to ~$24,000, 12% to ~$97,500. Tax = $2,400 + 12% × ($74,289 − $24,000) = $2,400 + $6,035 = $8,435... let me recompute with estimated 2026 MFJ brackets: 10% up to $24,800, 12% up to $100,800. Tax = $2,480 + 12% × ($74,289 − $24,800) = $2,480 + $5,939 = $8,419.\n\nNo nonrefundable credits indicated (no dependents, no CDCC). \n\nGiven rounding/bracket uncertainty, federal tax before refundable credits ≈ $6,107... revising: with charitable carryover limits fine, taxable income $74,289, tax ≈ $8,419. value = 8419" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.7, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 980.0, + "explanation": "California taxable income for surviving spouse age 77 with wages $52,635, taxable pension $30,989, taxable interest $50, miscellaneous $3,300, rental $4,550 (SS not taxed by CA) ≈ $91,524 AGI. CA itemized deductions: real estate taxes capped at $10,000 (so $8,829), mortgage interest, charitable $15,393, medical (>7.5% AGI). Standard deduction for qualifying surviving spouse (MFJ) is about $11,080. Itemized far exceeds. After itemized deductions of roughly $25,000+, taxable income ~$66,000. CA tax for MFJ on ~$66k ≈ $1,400. Subtract personal exemption credit for MFJ ($280) and senior exemption ($140) = ~$420 in exemption credits. Then nonrefundable renter's credit not applicable. Tax after nonrefundable credits ≈ $980. value = 980" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22%: rate", + "33,950: model federal_explanation: \"...,829 + $15,393 = $24,222. Standard deduction for QSS 2026 ≈ $32,300 + $1,650 (age 65+) = $33,950. Standard deduction is larger, use $33,950. Taxable ...\"", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,222: computed/cited: model explanation 'Total itemized ≈ $24,222' (value 24222.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...sc employee expenses no longer deductible post-TCJA. Total itemized ≈ $8,829 + $15,393 = $24,222. Standard deduction for QSS 2026 ≈ $32,300 + $1,650 (...\"", + "18,150: engine 2026 single standard deduction 16,100 + aged 2,050 (standard_deduction for scenario_022) | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 18150.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-5|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left 'the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT', presenting the engine's withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8547.0, + "explanation": "AGI: wages 52,635 + pension 30,989 + interest 50 + rental 4,550 + misc 3,300 = 91,524 plus taxable Social Security (85% of 20,735 = 17,625) = 109,149. Itemized deductions: real estate taxes ~8,829 (under SALT cap), mortgage interest ~ (212,853 balance, no interest listed, so 0), charitable 15,393 (within limits) = 24,222, which exceeds the 2026 single/surviving-spouse-as-single standard deduction with senior addition (~17,600), so itemizing gives taxable income ≈ 109,149 - 24,222 = 84,927, less a small QBI deduction on rental income (20% of 4,550 = 910) → ~84,017. Single-schedule tax on ~84,017 ≈ 12,900; however the senior deduction (new $6,000 for 65+) reduces taxable income to ~78,017, giving tax of about 8,547 after no nonrefundable credits. value = 8547" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2265.0, + "explanation": "California excludes Social Security. CA AGI ≈ 52,635 + 30,989 + 50 + 4,550 + 3,300 = 91,524. CA itemized deductions: real estate taxes 8,829 + charitable 15,393 = 24,222 (exceeds CA standard deduction ~5,800), taxable income ≈ 67,302. CA single rates yield about 2,393 less the personal exemption credit (~149) and senior exemption credit (~149) ≈ 2,265. value = 2265" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "24,222: model federal_explanation: \"...terest ~ (212,853 balance, no interest listed, so 0), charitable 15,393 (within limits) = 24,222, which exceeds the 2026 single/surviving-spouse-as-si...\"", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,000: computed/cited: model explanation 'new $6,000 for 65+' (value 6000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...0) → ~84,017. Single-schedule tax on ~84,017 ≈ 12,900; however the senior deduction (new $6,000 for 65+) reduces taxable income to ~78,017, giving tax...\"", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "78,017: model federal_explanation: \"...17 ≈ 12,900; however the senior deduction (new $6,000 for 65+) reduces taxable income to ~78,017, giving tax of about 8,547 after no nonrefundable cre...\"", + "11,876: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on the model's $78,017 = 11,875.74 (value 11875.7400, tolerance 0.5)", + "8,547: model federal_explanation: \"...ior deduction (new $6,000 for 65+) reduces taxable income to ~78,017, giving tax of about 8,547 after no nonrefundable credits. value = 8547...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-5.5|annotation", + "problem": "Described the reference's SALT as 'including CA income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7837.0, + "explanation": "Filing status is qualifying surviving spouse, which uses the joint brackets. AGI = 91,524 non-Social Security income + 17,625 taxable Social Security (85%) = 109,149. Deductions: standard 32,200 + aged add-on 1,650 + non-itemizer charitable deduction 1,000 + senior deduction 3,951 (phased down from 6,000) + QBI deduction on rental income 910. Taxable income = 69,438. Tax = 2,480 + 12% × 44,638 ≈ 7,837, with no nonrefundable credits applying. value = 7837" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 915.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is 91,524 because Social Security is excluded. Itemized deductions are property tax 8,829 + charitable 15,393 = 24,222, leaving taxable income of 67,302. Tax on the joint brackets is about 1,386, minus exemption credits of about 471 (2 personal + 1 senior), ≈ 915. value = 915" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "22%: rate", + "33,850: computed/cited: model 'standard 32,200 + aged add-on 1,650'; engine 2026 joint 32,200 + 1,650 (value 33850.0000, tolerance 0)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,832.27: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 24832.2656 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "18,150: engine 2026 single standard deduction 16,100 + aged 2,050 (standard_deduction for scenario_022) | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 18150.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-5|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'left CA income tax out of SALT', but the model put SALT at the $10,000 cap 'with other state taxes'; the error is the old cap.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 6800.0, + "explanation": "Head, age 77, filing as surviving spouse (uses MFJ brackets/standard deduction). Income: wages $52,635, taxable interest $50, taxable pension $30,989, rental income $4,550, misc income $3,300, taxable SS (~85% of $20,735 ≈ $17,625). Total income ≈ $109,149. Adjustments: none applicable (unreimbursed employee expenses not deductible post-TCJA). AGI ≈ $109,149. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest not given directly but real estate tax $8,829 (capped at $10,000 SALT with other state taxes) plus charitable cash $14,693 + non-cash $700 = $15,393, plus medical expenses (over 7.5% AGI threshold ~$8,186; total medical $2,416+$500+$500=$3,416, below threshold, so $0 deductible). Itemized total ≈ $10,000 (SALT cap) + $15,393 (charity) = $25,393, exceeding standard deduction (~$32,600 for MFJ 65+ in 2026), so itemizing is beneficial only if itemized > standard. Using standard deduction $32,600 (MFJ 65+, 2026 estimate) since itemized $25,393 < standard. Taxable income = $109,149 - $32,600 = $76,549. Applying 2026 MFJ brackets (10%/12%/22%) yields tax ≈ $8,700, reduced by no additional credits (CDCC/CTC not applicable for single elderly filer with no dependents). Final estimated federal income tax before refundable credits ≈ $6,800. value = 6800" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1900.0, + "explanation": "Head, age 77, filing as surviving spouse (qualifying widow, uses MFJ-equivalent brackets/standard deduction) in CA for 2026. Federal AGI components: wages $52,635, taxable interest $50, rental income $4,550, taxable pension $30,989, miscellaneous income $3,300, and taxable Social Security (CA excludes Social Security entirely from state taxable income). CA does not tax Social Security benefits, so the $20,735 SS and tax-exempt pension of $371 are excluded from CA AGI. CA AGI = 52,635+50+4,550+30,989+3,300 = 91,524. CA does not allow federal itemized deductions in the same way; using CA itemized deductions (mortgage interest not given directly, but real estate tax $8,829, charitable cash $14,693, charitable non-cash $700) roughly totals near $24,000, close to CA standard deduction thresholds for qualifying widow (~$10,846 for 2026 estimate) so itemizing benefits. Estimated CA itemized deductions ≈ $24,222 (real estate tax + charitable contributions, mortgage interest assumed minimal since balance under CA cap, no explicit interest paid given). CA taxable income ≈ 91,524 - 24,222 = 67,302. Applying CA 2026 qualifying widow(er) brackets (approximating 2% at low income, up to 6-8% marginal at this income level with effective average tax ~2.8%) yields tax before credits ≈ $1,900. Nonrefundable credits: CA senior exemption credit (~$149) is embedded in bracket tables already reducing tax. Net state income tax before refundable credits (e.g., before renter's credit/EITC) ≈ $1,900. value = 1900" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "32,600: model federal_explanation: \"...total ≈ $10,000 (SALT cap) + $15,393 (charity) = $25,393, exceeding standard deduction (~$32,600 for MFJ 65+ in 2026), so itemizing is beneficial only...\"", + "10,000: computed/cited: model explanation 'capped at $10,000 SALT with other state taxes' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...d deductions: mortgage interest not given directly but real estate tax $8,829 (capped at $10,000 SALT with other state taxes) plus charitable cash $14...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...cap) + $15,393 (charity) = $25,393, exceeding standard deduction (~$32,600 for MFJ 65+ in 2026), so itemizing is beneficial only if itemized > standar...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "14,887.85: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14887.8516 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,334.87: engine liability.salt_deduction = 11334.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,800: model federal_explanation: \"...iler with no dependents). Final estimated federal income tax before refundable credits ≈ $6,800. value = 6800...\"", + "8,700: model federal_explanation: \"...me = $109,149 - $32,600 = $76,549. Applying 2026 MFJ brackets (10%/12%/22%) yields tax ≈ $8,700, reduced by no additional credits (CDCC/CTC not applic...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-flash-0731|annotation", + "problem": "Counted 'the CA income tax component of SALT' among its omissions without saying the prompt lists no state income tax and the reference's component is the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-flash-0731, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8721.0, + "explanation": "Surviving spouse filing. AGI = wages 52635 + taxable interest 50 + taxable pension 30989 + rental 4550 + misc 3300 + taxable SS. Taxable SS: provisional income 91424 + 0.5*20735 = 101892, above thresholds, so 85%*20735 = 17625 taxable. AGI = 109149. Itemized (medical 0 after 7.5% AGI floor, taxes 8829, charitable 15393) = 24222, less than 2026 survivor standard 30800 + 1700 aged = 32500, so taxable income = 109149 - 32500 = 76649. Tax = 10%*23850 + 12%*(76649-23850) = 2385 + 6336 = 8721. No nonrefundable credits. value = 8721" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-flash-0731, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 3700.0, + "explanation": "CA taxable income = AGI 109149 - itemized 24222 = 84927. CA single 2026 brackets produce ~4030 before credits; minus CA personal exemption credit and senior exemption credit (~156 each) gives ~3700. No nonrefundable credit triggered beyond exemptions. value = 3700" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10%: rate", + "32,500: model federal_explanation: \"...xes 8829, charitable 15393) = 24222, less than 2026 survivor standard 30800 + 1700 aged = 32500, so taxable income = 109149 - 32500 = 76649. Tax = 10%...\"", + "2025: tax year label", + "23,850: computed/cited: engine 2025 JOINT bracket threshold 1 = 23,850 (engine_params.json); model '10%*23850' (value 23850.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...standard 30800 + 1700 aged = 32500, so taxable income = 109149 - 32500 = 76649. Tax = 10%*23850 + 12%*(76649-23850) = 2385 + 6336 = 8721. No nonrefund...\"", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-pro|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at only $2,019 instead of about $6,059': $2,019 is its own California liability estimate, and $6,058.85 is the engine's withholding estimate, not the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12416.0, + "explanation": "AGI is $109,149 (wages $52,635 + taxable pension $30,989 + taxable SS $17,625 + rental $4,550 + interest $50 + misc $3,300). Itemized deductions total $32,409 (real estate tax $8,829 + state income tax $2,019 + charitable $15,393 + unreimbursed employee expenses after 2% floor $6,168). Personal exemption is $5,300. Taxable income is $71,440. Tax using 2026 single brackets (10% on first $11,925 = $1,193; 15% on next $36,550 = $5,483; 25% on remaining $22,965 = $5,741) totals $12,416. No nonrefundable credits applied. value = 12416" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2019.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is $91,524 (federal AGI minus nontaxable SS). CA itemized deductions are $30,390 (property tax $8,829, charity $15,393, unreimbursed employee expenses $6,168). CA taxable income is $61,134. CA tax using 2026 brackets (1%–8%) is $2,186 before the $167 personal exemption credit, giving $2,019. value = 2019" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "15%/25%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "2%: rate", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...fter 2% floor $6,168). Personal exemption is $5,300. Taxable income is $71,440. Tax using 2026 single brackets (10% on first $11,925 = $1,193; 15% on ...\"", + "5,300: model federal_explanation: \"...e $15,393 + unreimbursed employee expenses after 2% floor $6,168). Personal exemption is $5,300. Taxable income is $71,440. Tax using 2026 single brac...\"", + "2,019: model federal_explanation: \"...sc $3,300). Itemized deductions total $32,409 (real estate tax $8,829 + state income tax $2,019 + charitable $15,393 + unreimbursed employee expenses ...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4.1-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left out 'the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4.1-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13480.0, + "explanation": "AGI 109,148.75 = wages 52,635 + interest 50 + rental 4,550 + taxable pension 30,989 + misc 3,300 + taxable Social Security 17,624.75. Itemized deductions 24,222 = charitable 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829. Taxable income 84,926.75. Tax: 10% * 12,200 = 1,220; 12% * 37,400 = 4,488; 22% * 35,326.75 = 7,771.885; total 13,479.885. No nonrefundable credits. value = 13480" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4.1-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2482.91, + "explanation": "CA AGI 91,524 (excludes Social Security). Itemized deductions 24,222 = charitable 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829. Taxable income 67,302. CA tax using 2026 brackets: 110.25 + 302.22 + 604.60 + 960.72 + 803.12 = 2,780.91. Less personal and senior exemption credits 298 = 2,482.91. value = 2482.91" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "24,222: model federal_explanation: \"...able pension 30,989 + misc 3,300 + taxable Social Security 17,624.75. Itemized deductions 24,222 = charitable 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829. Taxabl...\"", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "84,926.75: computed/cited: model explanation 'Taxable income 84,926.75' (value 84926.7500, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"... Itemized deductions 24,222 = charitable 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829. Taxable income 84,926.75. Tax: 10% * 12,200 = 1,220; 12% * 37,400 = 4,488; ...\"", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model state_explanation: \"...24,222 = charitable 15,393 + real estate taxes 8,829. Taxable income 67,302. CA tax using 2026 brackets: 110.25 + 302.22 + 604.60 + 960.72 + 803.12 = ...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3-flash-preview|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for leaving 'CA income tax out of SALT' without saying the prompt lists none and the reference's amount is the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3-flash-preview, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12917.25, + "explanation": "With an AGI of $109,149 (including wages, pensions, rental income, and taxable Social Security of $17,625), the household itemizes deductions for 2026 totaling $30,390 (real estate taxes, charitable donations, and unreimbursed business expenses over the 2% floor). After subtracting a $5,000 personal exemption and a $910 QBI deduction (20% of $4,550 rental income), taxable income is $72,849. Using 2026 single brackets (10%, 15%, 25%), the tax is $12,917.25. value = 12917.25" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3-flash-preview, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1942.48, + "explanation": "California AGI is $91,524 (excluding Social Security). Itemized deductions are $30,742.52, resulting in a taxable income of $60,781.48. Applying the 2026 single tax brackets results in a tax of $2,252.48, which is reduced by $310 for the personal exemption and senior credits. value = 1942.48" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10%/15%/25%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "10/12/22%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "2%: rate", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...al income, and taxable Social Security of $17,625), the household itemizes deductions for 2026 totaling $30,390 (real estate taxes, charitable donatio...\"", + "5,000: model federal_explanation: \"...le donations, and unreimbursed business expenses over the 2% floor). After subtracting a $5,000 personal exemption and a $910 QBI deduction (20% of $4...\"", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $74,552.59 of taxable income, which rests on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 11335.0, + "explanation": "Calculated by applying federal income tax brackets to the head's taxable income, inclusive of wages, taxable pension, and other income, minus deductions including itemized deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. value = 11335" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1175.0, + "explanation": "California state income tax liability calculated based on adjusted gross income and standard deductions for a single filer age 65+. value = 1175" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "0.5%: rate", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,335: engine liability.salt_deduction = 11334.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 11,335) | also model federal_explanation: \"...including itemized deductions for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. value = 11335...\"", + "11,113.57: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 11113.5703 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.1-pro-preview|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $74,552.59 of taxable income, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-pro-preview, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12103.0, + "explanation": "Estimated using an AGI of $109,149 (including wages, pensions, rental, misc income, and taxable SS), minus pre-TCJA itemized deductions of roughly $33,297 and personal exemptions, applying 2026 single tax brackets. value = 12103" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-pro-preview, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2180.0, + "explanation": "Estimated using CA AGI of $91,524 (excluding SS), minus CA itemized deductions of $30,743, applying CA single brackets and senior/personal exemption credits. value = 2180" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "2%: rate", + "33,297: model federal_explanation: \"...ons, rental, misc income, and taxable SS), minus pre-TCJA itemized deductions of roughly $33,297 and personal exemptions, applying 2026 single tax bra...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"..., minus pre-TCJA itemized deductions of roughly $33,297 and personal exemptions, applying 2026 single tax brackets. value = 12103...\"", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.5-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at $2,172 instead of about $6,059', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12834.0, + "explanation": "Calculated with a 2026 Federal AGI of $109,149, subtracting itemized deductions of $32,562 (which includes $14,693 cash charity, $700 non-cash charity, $8,829 real estate taxes, $2,172 state income taxes, and $6,168 in unreimbursed employee business expenses after the 2% floor) and a single personal exemption of $5,050, resulting in a taxable income of $71,537. Tax is computed using post-TCJA expiration bracket rates. value = 12834" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2127.0, + "explanation": "California state income tax on CA AGI of $91,524, minus itemized deductions of $30,743, resulting in taxable income of $60,781. CA tax before credits is $2,415, reduced by $288 in personal and senior exemption credits. value = 2127" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "2%: rate", + "5,050: model federal_explanation: \"...bursed employee business expenses after the 2% floor) and a single personal exemption of $5,050, resulting in a taxable income of $71,537. Tax is comp...\"", + "6,168: model federal_explanation: \"...charity, $700 non-cash charity, $8,829 real estate taxes, $2,172 state income taxes, and $6,168 in unreimbursed employee business expenses after the 2...\"", + "2,172: model federal_explanation: \"...2 (which includes $14,693 cash charity, $700 non-cash charity, $8,829 real estate taxes, $2,172 state income taxes, and $6,168 in unreimbursed employe...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.5-flash-lite|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left out 'the CA income tax SALT component' and that the deductions bring taxable income to $74,552.59, presenting the withholding-estimate figure as the household's.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash-lite, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13446.0, + "explanation": "The head has adjusted gross income and deductions resulting in federal individual income tax before nonrefundable credits of $13,446, offset by nonrefundable credits or standard deductions for 2026. value = 13446" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash-lite, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 3211.0, + "explanation": "CA state individual income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits is $3,211. value = 3211" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "13,446: model federal_explanation: \"...nd deductions resulting in federal individual income tax before nonrefundable credits of $13,446, offset by nonrefundable credits or standard deductio...\"", + "85,150: computed/cited: single taxable income implied by $13,446: 50,400 + (13,446 - 5,800)/0.22 = 85,154.55 (value 85154.5455, tolerance 10)", + "84,926.75: computed/cited: AGI 109,149.16 - property tax 8,829 - charity 15,393.41 (value 84926.7520, tolerance 0.006)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.6-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $14,887.85 'property plus CA income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.6-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13140.0, + "explanation": "Federal AGI is $109,149, which includes wages, pensions, rental, interest, miscellaneous income, and taxable Social Security benefits. Subtracting itemized deductions of $25,393 (charitable contributions and SALT capped at $10,000) and $910 QBI deduction yields taxable income of $82,846, resulting in federal income tax before refundable credits of $13,140. value = 13140" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.6-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2035.0, + "explanation": "California AGI excludes Social Security income ($91,524). After deducting CA itemized deductions of $30,743 (charity, real estate taxes, and employee business expenses) and applying CA state brackets and exemption credits, state income tax before refundable credits is $2,035. value = 2035" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "0.5%: rate", + "10,000: model federal_explanation: \"... Subtracting itemized deductions of $25,393 (charitable contributions and SALT capped at $10,000) and $910 QBI deduction yields taxable income of $82,...\"", + "2026: tax year label", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "14,887.85: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14887.8516 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,334.87: engine liability.salt_deduction = 11334.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "82,846: model federal_explanation: \"...ontributions and SALT capped at $10,000) and $910 QBI deduction yields taxable income of $82,846, resulting in federal income tax before refundable cr...\"", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.8-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'did not capture the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax in SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.8-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13200.0, + "explanation": "Federal income tax after itemized deductions (real estate taxes, charitable donations, and unreimbursed employee expenses) and pre-refundable tax brackets for 2026: value = 13200" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.8-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2050.0, + "explanation": "California state income tax on CA taxable income (excluding Social Security and subtracting itemized deductions and exemption credits): value = 2050" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "13,200: model federal_explanation: \"...ns, and unreimbursed employee expenses) and pre-refundable tax brackets for 2026: value = 13200...\"", + "11,113.57: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 11113.5703 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|glm-5.2|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left 'the roughly $6,059 of CA income tax out of SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.2, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13397.69, + "explanation": "Single filer (no dependents, surviving spouse status unavailable without qualifying child). AGI = wages ($52,635) + misc income ($3,300) + rental income ($4,550) + taxable SS ($17,624.75) + taxable interest ($50) + taxable pension ($30,989) = $109,148.75. Taxable SS = min(85% × $20,735, $4,500 + 85% × (provisional income $102,262.50 - $34,000)) = $17,624.75. Itemized deductions: medical $0 ($5,832 total < 7.5% AGI $8,186), SALT $8,829 (under $10,000 cap), charitable $15,393 ($14,693 cash + $700 non-cash), total $24,222 (exceeds $15,000 standard deduction). QBI deduction = 20% × $4,550 rental income = $910. Taxable income = $109,148.75 - $24,222 - $910 = $84,016.75. Tax at 2025 single brackets: 10% × $11,925 + 12% × $36,550 + 22% × $35,541.75 = $1,192.50 + $4,386.00 + $7,819.19 = $13,397.69. No nonrefundable credits apply (Credit for Elderly fully phased out, no children, no students). value = 13397.69" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.2, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 11626.0, + "explanation": "Using 2026 California tax rules with 2022 inflation adjustments: federal AGI equals $112,530 (wages $52,635 + interest $50 + taxable pension $30,989 + miscellaneous income $3,300 + taxable rental income $24,556 after $0 depreciation and mortgage interest deduction of $11,326 + Social Security taxable amount $1,000). The federal standard deduction exceeds itemized deductions, so CA taxable income equals AGI minus the standard deduction amount, then applying the CA tax schedules, exemptions, and nonrefundable credits yields a net tax of $11,626. value = 11626.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "2025: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"... rental income = $910. Taxable income = $109,148.75 - $24,222 - $910 = $84,016.75. Tax at 2025 single brackets: 10% × $11,925 + 12% × $36,550 + 22% × ...\"", + "15,000: computed/cited: model explanation 'exceeds $15,000 standard deduction' (value 15000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"... $10,000 cap), charitable $15,393 ($14,693 cash + $700 non-cash), total $24,222 (exceeds $15,000 standard deduction). QBI deduction = 20% × $4,550 ren...\"", + "6,000: computed/cited: senior deduction base: engine 3,951.05 = 6,000 - 6% x (AGI - 75,000) (value 6000.0000, tolerance 0)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "84,016.75: model federal_explanation: \"...ion = 20% × $4,550 rental income = $910. Taxable income = $109,148.75 - $24,222 - $910 = $84,016.75. Tax at 2025 single brackets: 10% × $11,925 + 12% ...\"", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|glm-5.3|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 3240.0, + "explanation": "Tax year 2026, single filer age 77. AGI = wages 52,635 + interest 50 + taxable pension 30,989 + tax-exempt private pension 371 + taxable Social Security 17,625 + rental income 4,550 + miscellaneous income 3,300 − statutory adjustment for unreimbursed employee business expenses 8,351 = 101,169. Standard deduction for age 65+ filer (15,000 + 2,000 additional) = 17,000, which exceeds total itemized deductions (charity, limited taxes, medical). Taxable income = 84,169. Tax on 84,169 (2026 brackets, single): 7,102. Head-of-household not applicable; additional standard deduction for 65+ excluded from taxable income. Credit for elderly/disabled: 15% of (7,500 base − 12,575 taxable disability portion... using reduced base 5,000 − 2,500 nontaxable portion − floor 3,750 of base amount) → tentative 15% × 3,750 = 562.5, reduced by 15% of AGI in excess of 10,000 → 15% × (101,169 − 10,000) = 13,675 exceeds tentative, so credit is fully phased out to 0. Total tax before credits ≈ 7,102; withheld federal income tax 5,850 gives 3,240 balance due before refundable credits. value = 3240" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 5211.0, + "explanation": "California tax on California AGI 102,919 (federal AGI 101,169 plus the 1,750 tax-exempt private pension adjustment and the 0 SDI adjustment). Standard deduction for single age 65+ filer: 5,540 base + 1,549 senior additional = 7,089, exceeding itemized deductions. California taxable income = 95,830. CA tax from 2026 single brackets on 95,830 ≈ 5,211; senior exemption credit and tax credit for dependents do not apply. Excess SDI included in the state tax calculation but subject to federal SALT cap, making it nondeductible for federal purposes. value = 5211" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5,850: model federal_explanation: \"...t is fully phased out to 0. Total tax before credits ≈ 7,102; withheld federal income tax 5,850 gives 3,240 balance due before refundable credits. val...\"", + "8,351: household input unreimbursed_business_employee_expenses = 8350.5439453125 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...ellaneous income 3,300 − statutory adjustment for unreimbursed employee business expenses 8,351 = 101,169. Standard deduction for age 65+ filer (15,00...\"", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,832.27: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 24832.2656 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "18,150: engine 2026 single standard deduction 16,100 + aged 2,050 (standard_deduction for scenario_022) | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 18150.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.4-mini|annotation", + "problem": "Stated the reference's $34,596.57 of deductions and $74,552.59 of taxable income, which rest on the withholding estimate, as the household's figures.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-mini, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Senior with large itemizable deductions (SALT limited, mortgage interest not provided, and charitable/medical expenses) and no taxable wage income after pension/SS offset details; estimated regular federal income tax is fully offset to zero before refundable credits. value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-mini, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "California income tax is fully offset by the household's older-age filing situation and itemized/standard deduction structure at this income level, leaving no state tax before refundable credits. value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json scenario_022 federal note; /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json payroll_in_salt", + "why_scoped_to_the_engine": "policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)); with them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate, so an unscoped 'at most' bound on deductions would contradict the record.", + "payroll_in_salt_estimate_output": 10963.04 + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "109,149.16: engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 109149.1641 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "34,596.57: engine reference.taxable_income_deductions = 34596.5664 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "52,635: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv) | also model raw_response: \"...payroll_tax\\\":{\\\"value\\\":4030,\\\"explanation\\\":\\\"Employee payroll tax applies only to the $52,635 wage income: Social Security tax and Medicare tax on ...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.4-nano|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's deductions, which rest on the withholding estimate, 'the correct deductions'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-nano, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1237.0, + "explanation": "Computed federal taxable income from given wages, Social Security (taxable portion), interest/dividends, private pension income, rental income, and deductions for standard/itemized (including allowed itemized items consistent with provided amounts) then applied 2026 federal income tax brackets and subtracted nonrefundable credits actually assumed available; resulting federal income tax after nonrefundable credits but before refundable credits is 1237. value = 1237" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-nano, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1036.0, + "explanation": "Calculated California taxable income using provided income sources with deductions as applicable, applied CA state income tax rates for 2026 and subtracted any nonrefundable credits assumed available; state income tax after nonrefundable credits but before refundable credits equals 1036. value = 1036" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22%: rate", + "1,237: model federal_explanation: \"...resulting federal income tax after nonrefundable credits but before refundable credits is 1237. value = 1237...\"", + "12,400: computed/cited: taxable income implied by $1,237 at 10% = 12,370 (value 12370.0000, tolerance 50) | also engine 2026 single bracket threshold 1 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_params.json)", + "96,800: computed/cited: 109,149.16 - 12,370 = 96,779.16 (value 96779.1641, tolerance 25)", + "109,149.16: engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 109149.1641 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.6-luna|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $34,596.57 of deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-luna, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 10247.0, + "explanation": "Estimated 2026 federal income tax after itemized deductions, the applicable senior deduction, and the qualified-business-income deduction; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 10247" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-luna, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2893.0, + "explanation": "Estimated California income tax after California itemized deductions and the personal exemption credit, with Social Security excluded from California taxable income. value = 2893" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "10,247: model federal_explanation: \"...ion, and the qualified-business-income deduction; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 10247...\"", + "70,600: computed/cited: single taxable income implied by $10,247: 70,613.64 (value 70613.6364, tolerance 20)", + "3,900: computed/cited: (109,149.16 - 70,613.64) - 34,596.57 = 3,938.95 (value 3938.9577, tolerance 50)", + "34,596.57: engine reference.taxable_income_deductions = 34596.5664 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.6-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7711.0, + "explanation": "The surviving-spouse joint-rate treatment, age-based standard deduction, temporary senior deduction, taxable pension and Social Security income, and an estimated qualified-business-income deduction produce about this federal liability; no nonrefundable dependent credits apply. value = 7711" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 657.0, + "explanation": "California excludes Social Security, allows the large itemized deductions including eligible employee expenses, applies qualifying-surviving-spouse rates, and then applies personal and senior exemption credits. value = 657" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22%: rate", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,832.27: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 24832.2656 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "18,150: engine 2026 single standard deduction 16,100 + aged 2,050 (standard_deduction for scenario_022) | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 18150.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.6-terra|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $74,552.59 of taxable income, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-terra, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 9760.0, + "explanation": "Taxable income is calculated after allowable itemized charitable and property-tax deductions; the surviving-spouse tax schedule produces federal tax of 9760, with no usable nonrefundable credits. value = 9760" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-terra, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1011.0, + "explanation": "California excludes Social Security income and allows the applicable itemized deductions; surviving-spouse California tax less the personal exemption credit is 1011. value = 1011" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-astra|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-astra, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7956.52, + "explanation": "Using the supplied surviving-spouse status, AGI is $109148.75, including 85% of Social Security. Subtracting the $33850 age-adjusted standard deduction, $3951.075 phased-down senior deduction, and $910 rental-income QBI deduction gives $70437.675 taxable income. Applying 2026 brackets, with no applicable credits, value = 7956.52" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-astra, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 700.12, + "explanation": "Estimated using California's latest published surviving-spouse schedule. Excluding Social Security gives $91524 AGI; charity, property tax, and allowable employee expenses give $30742.52 itemized deductions. Tax on $60781.48 is $1159.12, less $306 personal and $153 senior exemption credits; value = 700.12" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22%: rate", + "3,951.08: computed/cited: model explanation '$3951.075 phased-down senior deduction', rounded (value 3951.0750, tolerance 0.006)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"... the $33850 age-adjusted standard deduction, $3951.075 phased-down senior deduction, and $910 rental-income QBI deduction gives $70437.675 taxable inc...\"", + "33,850: model federal_explanation: \"...ving-spouse status, AGI is $109148.75, including 85% of Social Security. Subtracting the $33850 age-adjusted standard deduction, $3951.075 phased-down...\"", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-luna|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $74,552.59 and $34,596.57, which rest on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-luna, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 9651.0, + "explanation": "Estimated federal AGI is $109,149, including 85% of Social Security; after itemized deductions, the phased senior deduction, and an estimated QBI deduction, 2026 regular income tax is about $9,651. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 9651" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-luna, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2160.0, + "explanation": "Estimated California income tax after itemized deductions, including charitable and property-tax deductions and allowable employee expenses, and the personal exemption credit; value = 2160" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0.5%: rate", + "9,651: model federal_explanation: \"...hased senior deduction, and an estimated QBI deduction, 2026 regular income tax is about $9,651. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 9651...\"", + "67,900: computed/cited: single taxable income implied by $9,651: 67,904.55 (value 67904.5455, tolerance 10)", + "6,600: computed/cited: 74,552.59 - 67,904.55 = 6,648.04 (value 6648.0437, tolerance 60)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "34,596.57: engine reference.taxable_income_deductions = 34596.5664 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,887.85: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14887.8516 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,847.67: engine reference.charitable_deduction = 14847.6660 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'estimated CA income tax at only about $2,234 instead of about $6,059': the model gave no state tax figure (the $2,234 was inferred), and $6,058.85 is the engine's withholding estimate, not the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12035.0, + "explanation": "Estimated single-filer AGI is 109148.75, including 17624.75 of taxable Social Security. After estimated itemized deductions of about 26456 and a phased-down senior deduction of about 3951, the 2026 federal brackets yield about 12035; value = 12035" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2095.0, + "explanation": "California excludes the 20735 of Social Security; estimated California AGI is 91524. Property taxes, charitable gifts, and deductible employee expenses reduce taxable income to roughly 60800, producing approximately 2095 after the personal exemption credit; value = 2095" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951) | also model federal_explanation: \"... estimated itemized deductions of about 26456 and a phased-down senior deduction of about 3951, the 2026 federal brackets yield about 12035; value = 1...\"", + "26,456: model federal_explanation: \"...cluding 17624.75 of taxable Social Security. After estimated itemized deductions of about 26456 and a phased-down senior deduction of about 3951, the ...\"", + "273.46: computed/cited: 26,456 - 26,182.54 (value 273.4648, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,182.54: engine liability.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 26182.5352 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "3,279.52: computed/cited: 29,735.52 - 26,456 (value 3279.5176, tolerance 0.006)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "78,742: computed/cited: model AGI 109,148.75 - itemized 26,456 - senior 3,951 = 78,741.75 (value 78741.7500, tolerance 0.5)", + "78,105.58: engine liability.taxable_income = 78105.5781 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "12,035: model federal_explanation: \"...6 and a phased-down senior deduction of about 3951, the 2026 federal brackets yield about 12035; value = 12035...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6.1-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions and $11,113.57, which rest on the withholding estimate, as the household's figures.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6.1-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7956.52, + "explanation": "Using surviving-spouse tax brackets, AGI is $109,148.75, including 85% of Social Security. Deduct the $33,850 age-adjusted standard deduction, an estimated $3,951.075 enhanced senior deduction after phaseout, and $910 rental QBI deduction. No nonrefundable credits apply; value = 7956.52" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6.1-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 655.86, + "explanation": "Estimated California tax uses surviving-spouse brackets, $91,524 AGI excluding Social Security, $30,742.52 itemized deductions, projected 2026 indexed brackets, and $474 personal and senior exemption credits; value = 655.86" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "22%: rate", + "33,850: model federal_explanation: \"...ng-spouse tax brackets, AGI is $109,148.75, including 85% of Social Security. Deduct the $33,850 age-adjusted standard deduction, an estimated $3,951....\"", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "11,113.57: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 11113.5703 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "7,956.52: model federal_explanation: \"...on after phaseout, and $910 rental QBI deduction. No nonrefundable credits apply; value = 7956.52...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.3|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 9021.0, + "explanation": "AGI of $109149 minus $30000 QSS standard deduction yields $79149 taxable income; 2026 QSS brackets applied to that amount produce tax of $9021 with no non-refundable credits available. value = 9021" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "CA state tax calculation not estimable exactly from facts, estimate zero; value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "30,000: model federal_explanation: \"...AGI of $109149 minus $30000 QSS standard deduction yields $79149 taxable income; 2...\"", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,832.27: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 24832.2656 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.5|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'underestimated CA income tax at about $2,103', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12108.0, + "explanation": "AGI is 109149 after including 17625 taxable Social Security. Post-TCJA-sunset itemized deductions of 32493 (SALT 10932 + charity 15393 + misc employee expenses after 2% floor 6168) plus personal exemption 5419 yield taxable income 71237. 2026 single brackets produce tax of 12108 with no nonrefundable credits. value = 12108" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2103.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is 91524 (federal AGI less taxable SS). CA itemized deductions 30743 produce CA taxable income 60781. 2026 inflation-adjusted CA single brackets yield 2256 before the 153 personal exemption credit, resulting in 2103. value = 2103" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "10/12/22%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "2%: rate", + "5,419: model federal_explanation: \"...932 + charity 15393 + misc employee expenses after 2% floor 6168) plus personal exemption 5419 yield taxable income 71237. 2026 single brackets produc...\"", + "2,103: model state_explanation: \"...sted CA single brackets yield 2256 before the 153 personal exemption credit, resulting in 2103. value = 2103...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.6|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at only $1,974 instead of about $6,059': $1,974 is its own California tax estimate, and its taxable income is within $14 of the engine's under the engine's own California tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.6, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 11953.0, + "explanation": "Single filer (no dependent child, so surviving-spouse/QSS status is not used). AGI is 109,149 after wages 52,635, interest 50, taxable pension 30,989, rental 4,550, miscellaneous 3,300, and taxable Social Security 17,625 (85% of 20,735). Itemized deductions of 26,196 (SALT 10,803 = property tax 8,829 + CA tax 1,974, plus charity 15,393; medical is $0 after the 7.5% floor; no mortgage interest given) exceed the standard deduction. After the phased 65+ senior deduction of 3,951 and QBI of 910 (20% of rental 4,550), taxable income is 78,092. 2026 single rates yield 1,225 + 4,509 + 6,219 = 11,953. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 11953" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.6, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1974.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is 91,524 after subtracting federally taxed Social Security from federal AGI. CA itemized deductions are 30,390 (property tax 8,829 + charity 15,393 + unreimbursed employee expenses 6,168 after the 2% floor), so CA taxable income is 61,134. 2026 single CA brackets produce tax of about 2,280 before credits. Personal plus age-65+ exemption credits of 306 reduce CA tax to 1,974. value = 1974" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "0.5%: rate", + "3,951: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 3,951) | also model federal_explanation: \"...e interest given) exceed the standard deduction. After the phased 65+ senior deduction of 3,951 and QBI of 910 (20% of rental 4,550), taxable income i...\"", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"... exceed the standard deduction. After the phased 65+ senior deduction of 3,951 and QBI of 910 (20% of rental 4,550), taxable income is 78,092. 2026 si...\"", + "1,974: model federal_explanation: \"...(85% of 20,735). Itemized deductions of 26,196 (SALT 10,803 = property tax 8,829 + CA tax 1,974, plus charity 15,393; medical is $0 after the 7.5% flo...\"", + "78,092: computed/cited: model explanation 'taxable income is 78,092' (value 78092.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...sed 65+ senior deduction of 3,951 and QBI of 910 (20% of rental 4,550), taxable income is 78,092. 2026 single rates yield 1,225 + 4,509 + 6,219 = 11,9...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "78,105.58: engine liability.taxable_income = 78105.5781 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,895.23: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 11895.2275 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "11,113.57: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 11113.5703 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...senior deduction of 3,951 and QBI of 910 (20% of rental 4,550), taxable income is 78,092. 2026 single rates yield 1,225 + 4,509 + 6,219 = 11,953. No n...\"", + "11,953: model federal_explanation: \"... rental 4,550), taxable income is 78,092. 2026 single rates yield 1,225 + 4,509 + 6,219 = 11,953. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 11953...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.7|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at only $1,867 instead of about $6,059', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.7, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12192.0, + "explanation": "Single filer (widowed, no qualifying child). AGI is $109,149: wages $52,635, interest $50, taxable pension $30,989, rental $4,550, miscellaneous $3,300, and taxable Social Security $17,625 (85% of $20,735). Itemized deductions of $26,089 (SALT $10,696 from real estate tax $8,829 plus CA income tax $1,867, under the higher SALT cap, plus charity $15,393) exceed the senior standard deduction. The $6,000 senior deduction phases down by 6% of MAGI over $75,000 to $3,951. Taxable income $79,109 is taxed at estimated 2026 single brackets (10% to $12,225, 12% to $49,675, then 22%) for $12,192. No nonrefundable credits apply, and QBI is $0. value = 12192" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.7, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 1867.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is $91,524 after excluding Social Security. CA itemized deductions are $30,743 (property tax $8,829, charity $15,393, and $6,521 of employee expenses after the 2% floor), so CA taxable income is $60,781. Tax at projected 2026 single brackets is about $2,173 before personal and senior exemption credits of $306, leaving $1,867 after nonrefundable credits. value = 1867" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "0.5%: rate", + "1,867: model federal_explanation: \"...mized deductions of $26,089 (SALT $10,696 from real estate tax $8,829 plus CA income tax $1,867, under the higher SALT cap, plus charity $15,393) exce...\"", + "10,696: computed/cited: model explanation 'SALT $10,696' (value 10696.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...d taxable Social Security $17,625 (85% of $20,735). Itemized deductions of $26,089 (SALT $10,696 from real estate tax $8,829 plus CA income tax $1,867...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "11,334.87: engine liability.salt_deduction = 11334.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,887.85: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14887.8516 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...s down by 6% of MAGI over $75,000 to $3,951. Taxable income $79,109 is taxed at estimated 2026 single brackets (10% to $12,225, 12% to $49,675, then 2...\"", + "12,225: model federal_explanation: \"...000 to $3,951. Taxable income $79,109 is taxed at estimated 2026 single brackets (10% to $12,225, 12% to $49,675, then 22%) for $12,192. No nonrefunda...\"", + "49,675: model federal_explanation: \"...axable income $79,109 is taxed at estimated 2026 single brackets (10% to $12,225, 12% to $49,675, then 22%) for $12,192. No nonrefundable credits appl...\"", + "12,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 1 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_params.json)", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "12,192: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 12,192) | also model federal_explanation: \"...s taxed at estimated 2026 single brackets (10% to $12,225, 12% to $49,675, then 22%) for $12,192. No nonrefundable credits apply, and QBI is $0. value...\"", + "1: computed/cited: |12,192 - 12,192.29| = 0.29 (value 0.2852, tolerance 1.0) | also household input is_surviving_spouse = True (scenarios.csv) | also model raw_response: \"...\":\\\"Employee Social Security tax is 6.2% of $52,635 = $3,263.37, employee Medicare tax is 1.45% = $763.21, Additional Medicare Tax is $0, and mandator...\"", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-build-0.1|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'underestimated CA income tax at $2,254', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-build-0.1, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 14167.0, + "explanation": "AGI is 112259 (wages 52635 + interest 50 + taxable pension 30989 + rental 4550 + misc 3300 + taxable SS 20735). Itemized deductions total 32582 (real estate taxes 8829 + CA state tax 2254 + charity 15393 + misc unreimbursed employee business expenses 6106 after 2% floor; medical 5832 below 7.5% AGI floor). Taxable income 79677. 2026 post-TCJA single brackets applied (10% up to ~12589, 15% to ~51233, 25% beyond) yield 14167 with no nonrefundable credits used. value = 14167" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-build-0.1, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2254.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI 91524 (federal AGI minus taxable SS). CA itemized deductions 30743 (real estate taxes 8829 + charity 15393 + misc 6521 after 2% floor; medical below 7.5% floor). CA taxable income 60781. Applied 2026 CA brackets (inflated ~6% from 2024) in 8% bracket yields 2254 before refundable credits (no nonrefundable credits apply). value = 2254" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "15%/25%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "100%: rate", + "85%: rate", + "2%: rate", + "2,254: model federal_explanation: \"...taxable SS 20735). Itemized deductions total 32582 (real estate taxes 8829 + CA state tax 2254 + charity 15393 + misc unreimbursed employee business e...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|inkling|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at about $2,024 instead of about $6,059', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate; 'wrong 2026 single bracket thresholds' was not shown in its answer, which gives no thresholds.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=inkling, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 12192.0, + "explanation": "Federal AGI is about $108,247 (wages, misc, net rental after ~$901 depreciation, taxable SS of ~$17,625, taxable pension, interest). Itemized deductions are about $25,705 (SALT ~$10,853 including property tax and CA tax, charitable $15,393 minus 0.5% AGI floor of ~$541, medical below 7.5% floor). Taxable income is about $78,538 after itemizing and the OBBBA senior deduction of ~$4,005 (phase-out applies). Tax using 2026 single brackets (10%/12%/22%) yields about $12,192 with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 12192" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=inkling, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2024.0, + "explanation": "CA AGI is about $90,623 (federal AGI minus taxable Social Security). With CA itemized deductions around $30,761 (charitable, property tax, miscellaneous employee expenses over 2% floor) versus a small standard deduction, CA taxable income is about $59,862. Applying 2026 CA brackets gives tax of about $2,178, reduced by the personal exemption credit of about $154, leaving about $2,024 before refundable credits. value = 2024" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "901: computed/cited: model explanation 'after ~$901 depreciation' (value 901.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...Federal AGI is about $108,247 (wages, misc, net rental after ~$901 depreciation, taxable SS of ~$17,625, taxable pension, i...\"", + "2,024: model state_explanation: \"...x of about $2,178, reduced by the personal exemption credit of about $154, leaving about $2,024 before refundable credits. value = 2024...\"", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"... after itemizing and the OBBBA senior deduction of ~$4,005 (phase-out applies). Tax using 2026 single brackets (10%/12%/22%) yields about $12,192 with...\"", + "78,538: model federal_explanation: \"...15,393 minus 0.5% AGI floor of ~$541, medical below 7.5% floor). Taxable income is about $78,538 after itemizing and the OBBBA senior deduction of ~$4...\"", + "11,990.36: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on the model's $78,538 (value 11990.3600, tolerance 0.006)", + "12,192: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 12,192) | also model federal_explanation: \"...f ~$4,005 (phase-out applies). Tax using 2026 single brackets (10%/12%/22%) yields about $12,192 with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 121...\"", + "1: computed/cited: |12,192 - 12,192.29| = 0.29 (value 0.2852, tolerance 1.0) | also household input is_surviving_spouse = True (scenarios.csv) | also model raw_response: \"...explanation\\\":\\\"Employee Social Security tax on $52,635 at 6.2% = $3,263; Medicare tax at 1.45% = $763; California SDI at about 1.2% = $632; total emp...\"", + "12,192.29: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 12192.2852 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|kimi-k3|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating 'CA income tax at $2,700 instead of about $6,059', comparing its own California tax estimate with the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=kimi-k3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 11932.65, + "explanation": "Single filer (surviving spouse with no dependent child), age 65+. Non-Social-Security income = wages 52,635 + interest 50 + rental 4,550 + miscellaneous 3,300 + taxable pension 30,989 = 91,524; taxable Social Security = 17,624.75 (85% of benefits), so AGI = 109,148.75. Itemized deductions exceed the $18,150 standard deduction: SALT = real estate tax 8,829 + CA income tax 2,700 = 11,529 (under the 2026 $40,400 cap) + charitable 15,393 = 26,922 (medical is below the 7.5% floor and no mortgage interest amount was given). OBBBA senior deduction = 6,000 − 6%×(109,148.75 − 75,000) = 3,951.08; no QBI deduction taken. Taxable income = 109,148.75 − 26,922 − 3,951.08 = 78,275.67; 2026 single tax = 1,240 + 4,560 + 22%×27,875.67 = 11,932.65, with no nonrefundable credits used. value = 11932.65" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=kimi-k3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2700.0, + "explanation": "California AGI = federal AGI minus taxable Social Security = 109,148.75 − 17,624.75 = 91,524 (CA does not tax Social Security and does not conform to the federal senior or QBI deductions). CA itemized deductions = real estate tax 8,829 + charitable 15,393 = 24,222 (CA does not deduct state income tax; medical below the 7.5% floor), far above the small CA standard deduction, giving CA taxable income 67,302; graduated CA rates produce about $2,844 less the roughly $144 personal exemption credit, netting to $2,700. value = 2700" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_outputs.csv.meta.json revisions[].excluded_outputs_rechecked (scenario_022 state); /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json r11 record; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/ca_provenance.json (scripts/ca_provenance.py)", + "published_california_reference": 2439.65, + "r11_record_engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4", + "value_on_2_15_17_with_conventions": 2505.87, + "meta_reason_excerpt": "Raw 2.15.17 equals the board exactly, and 2.15.17 + conventions = 2,505.870117 = 1.755.4 + r19, so c_ca_hold_2025 alone moves it.", + "engine_run": { + "raw_2_15_17": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2439.65, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 5966.12, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11133.97 + }, + "reference_system": { + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 2505.87, + "ca_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 11113.57 + } + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "policyengine-us 2.15.17: engine version label (reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; r11 record engine_version)", + "0.5%: rate", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"...d deduction: SALT = real estate tax 8,829 + CA income tax 2,700 = 11,529 (under the 2026 $40,400 cap) + charitable 15,393 = 26,922 (medical is below t...\"", + "3,951.08: model federal_explanation: \"...e interest amount was given). OBBBA senior deduction = 6,000 − 6%×(109,148.75 − 75,000) = 3,951.08; no QBI deduction taken. Taxable income = 109,148.7...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...tandard deduction: SALT = real estate tax 8,829 + CA income tax 2,700 = 11,529 (under the 2026 $40,400 cap) + charitable 15,393 = 26,922 (medical is b...\"", + "2,700: model federal_explanation: \"...tions exceed the $18,150 standard deduction: SALT = real estate tax 8,829 + CA income tax 2,700 = 11,529 (under the 2026 $40,400 cap) + charitable 15,...\"", + "194.13: computed/cited: 2,700 - 2,505.87 (value 194.1299, tolerance 0.006)", + "2,505.87: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 2505.8701 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "78,275.67: model federal_explanation: \"...00) = 3,951.08; no QBI deduction taken. Taxable income = 109,148.75 − 26,922 − 3,951.08 = 78,275.67; 2026 single tax = 1,240 + 4,560 + 22%×27,875.67 =...\"", + "78,105.58: engine liability.taxable_income = 78105.5781 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|qwen3.8-max|annotation", + "problem": "Stated the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as 'the allowable itemized deductions'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen3.8-max, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Regular tax before nonrefundable credits is approximately $1,688, while nonrefundable age amount plus charitable cash and non-cash donations, medical expenses, real estate taxes, health insurance premiums, unreimbursed employee business expenses, and estimated mortgage interest create itemized deductions that produce negative taxable income. Nonrefundable credits therefore fully offset tax. value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen3.8-max, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "California taxable income is fully offset by standard or itemized deductions and the senior exemption allowance, so tax before credits is negligible and nonrefundable senior exemption credits reduce the remaining tax to zero. value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json scenario_022 federal note; /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json payroll_in_salt", + "why_scoped_to_the_engine": "policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)); with them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate, so an unscoped 'at most' bound on deductions would contradict the record.", + "payroll_in_salt_estimate_output": 10963.04 + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "7.5%: rate", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.7-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'never mentioned the CA income tax SALT component', treating a California income tax amount in SALT as given, though the prompt lists none and the reference's amount is the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.7-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 9260.0, + "explanation": "Calculated federal income tax on taxable income after itemized deductions (including charitable donations and real estate taxes) and taking into account the taxable portion of Social Security benefits. value = 9260.0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.7-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 2652.0, + "explanation": "California income tax on taxable income after itemized deductions, excluding Social Security from CA AGI, plus senior/exemption credits. value = 2652.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "12%: rate", + "22%: rate", + "9,260: model federal_explanation: \"...e taxes) and taking into account the taxable portion of Social Security benefits. value = 9260.0...\"", + "81,300: computed/cited: 2026 joint brackets: 24,800 + (9,260 - 2,480)/0.12 = 81,300 (engine_params.json joint threshold 1) (value 81300.0000, tolerance 0.5)", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_022|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|minimax-m3|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $29,735.52 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, part of 'the most generous deductions' available to the household.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=minimax-m3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "Head is age 77 (over 65), uses standard deduction (single surviving spouse, 2026 assumed standard deduction). Taxable income is too low for federal income tax liability after nonrefundable credits. value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=minimax-m3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "California state income tax based on taxable income after deductions. With Social Security, pension income, and standard deduction considerations, CA taxable income results in approximately $0 state tax liability (income below threshold after deductions). value = 0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 6058.85, + "engine_state_liability": 2505.87, + "corrected_liability": 1968.81, + "output": { + "reference": 11113.57, + "liability": 11895.23, + "corrected_liability": 12013.38, + "zero": 12192.29 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14887.85, + "liability": 11334.87, + "corrected_liability": 10797.81, + "zero": 9984.6 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 29735.52, + "liability": 26182.54, + "corrected_liability": 25645.47, + "zero": 24832.27 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 74552.59, + "liability": 78105.58, + "corrected_liability": 78642.64, + "zero": 79455.84 + } + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json scenario_022 federal note; /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json payroll_in_salt", + "why_scoped_to_the_engine": "policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)); with them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate, so an unscoped 'at most' bound on deductions would contradict the record.", + "payroll_in_salt_estimate_output": 10963.04 + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22%: rate", + "109,149.16: engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 109149.1641 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,735.52: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 29735.5176 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6,058.85: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 6058.8521 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "910: engine reference.qualified_business_income_deduction = 910.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,951.05: engine reference.additional_senior_deduction = 3951.0500 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "74,552.59: engine reference.taxable_income = 74552.5938 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-fable-5|annotation", + "problem": "Said 'The $8,484.41 of MA income tax is deductible', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax; the model, which treated withholding as 0, took the no-payment reading.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29385.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, 2026. AGI = wages 175,002 + interest 56 + dividends 110 + capital loss -1,080 + REIT 6 = 174,094. Itemized deductions (mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT capped ~5,643 within higher OBBBA SALT cap plus MA income tax withholding treated as 0; use mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate tax 5,643 = 22,543) exceed 2026 standard deduction (~16,100), so itemize: taxable income before QBI = 174,094 - 22,543 = 151,551. QBI deduction = 20% of 6 REIT income ≈ 1. Taxable income ≈ 151,550. 2026 single brackets (projected): tax ≈ 17,754.75 + 24% of (151,550 - 105,700) ≈ 17,755 + 11,004 = 28,759; adjusting for 32% bracket start ~201,775 not reached. Approximate tax ≈ 29,385 after minor bracket threshold estimates; no credits apply. value = 29385" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8380.0, + "explanation": "MA 2026: Part B income = wages 175,002 + interest (56 taxable interest; MA exempts small MA bank interest but no exemption applies in 2026 as it was repealed) minus nothing; dividends 110 and interest 56 taxed at 5%. Wages 175,002 less no FICA deduction (repealed cap applies: MA allows up to $2,000 deduction for employee payroll taxes) - 2,000 = 173,002. Personal exemption 4,400 (single), rental deduction min(50% rent, 4,000) = 4,000. Part B taxable = 173,002 - 4,400 - 4,000 = 164,602; tax at 5% = 8,230.10. Interest/dividends 166 at 5% = 8.30. Short-term capital loss -1,080 offsets Part A but cannot go below zero; no Part A gains tax. Total ≈ 8,230 + 8 = 8,238; adding back rounding of components gives about 8,380 including no surtax (income below $1M). Final MA income tax before refundable credits value = 8380" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "24%: rate", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"...SALT capped ~5,643 within higher OBBBA SALT cap plus MA income tax withholding treated as 0; use mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate tax 5,643 = 22...\"", + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...s -1,080 + REIT 6 = 174,094. Itemized deductions (mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT capped ~5,643 within higher OBBBA SALT cap plus MA income tax withho...\"", + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...come tax withholding treated as 0; use mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate tax 5,643 = 22,543) exceed 2026 standard deduction (~16,100), so itemize...\"", + "151,550: computed/cited: model explanation 'Taxable income ≈ 151,550' (value 151550.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"... = 174,094 - 22,543 = 151,551. QBI deduction = 20% of 6 REIT income ≈ 1. Taxable income ≈ 151,550. 2026 single brackets (projected): tax ≈ 17,754.75 +...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "4,400: computed/cited: README mechanism (value 4400.0000, tolerance 0.01) | also model state_explanation: \"... up to $2,000 deduction for employee payroll taxes) - 2,000 = 173,002. Personal exemption 4,400 (single), rental deduction min(50% rent, 4,000) = 4,00...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "17,754.75: model federal_explanation: \"...% of 6 REIT income ≈ 1. Taxable income ≈ 151,550. 2026 single brackets (projected): tax ≈ 17,754.75 + 24% of (151,550 - 105,700) ≈ 17,755 + 11,004 = 2...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer, 2026. AGI = wages 175,002 + interest 56 + dividends 110 + ca...\"", + "17,966: computed/cited: 2026 single tax at $105,700 (value 17966.0000, tolerance 0.001)", + "626: computed/cited: model: 28,759 then 'Approximate tax ≈ 29,385' (value 626.0000, tolerance 0)", + "29,385: model federal_explanation: \"... 11,004 = 28,759; adjusting for 32% bracket start ~201,775 not reached. Approximate tax ≈ 29,385 after minor bracket threshold estimates; no credits a...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-fable-5.1|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for putting Massachusetts income tax 'at about $8,230 instead of $8,484.41': $8,230 is its own Massachusetts liability, close to the engine's $8,238.41; $8,484.41 is the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5.1, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26995.0, + "explanation": "AGI = 175,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 short-term capital loss = 174,094. Itemized deductions (30,773: mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT of 5,643 property tax + ~8,230 MA income tax, under the 40,400 cap; medical below 7.5% AGI floor; employee business expenses not deductible) exceed the 16,100 single standard deduction. QBID ~1. Taxable income ~143,320. 2026 single brackets: 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 + 24% x 37,620 = ~26,995. No nonrefundable credits. value = 26995" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-fable-5.1, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8230.0, + "explanation": "MA 5% tax: wages 175,002 (interest/dividends of 166 offset by the short-term capital loss) less personal exemption 4,400, rent deduction capped at 4,000, and FICA deduction capped at 2,000 = 164,602 taxable; 5% = ~8,230. No applicable MA credits. value = 8230" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "8,230: model federal_explanation: \"...94. Itemized deductions (30,773: mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT of 5,643 property tax + ~8,230 MA income tax, under the 40,400 cap; medical below 7.5...\"", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income 6.22 (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...AGI = 175,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 short-term capital loss = 174,094. Itemiz...\"", + "174,094: model federal_explanation: \"...75,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 short-term capital loss = 174,094. Itemized deductions (30,773: mortgage interest 16,9...\"", + "174,088.12: engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 174088.1250 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,320: model federal_explanation: \"...ses not deductible) exceed the 16,100 single standard deduction. QBID ~1. Taxable income ~143,320. 2026 single brackets: 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 + 24% ...\"", + "26,995: model federal_explanation: \".... Taxable income ~143,320. 2026 single brackets: 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 + 24% x 37,620 = ~26,995. No nonrefundable credits. value = 26995...\"", + "143,305.47: engine liability.taxable_income = 143305.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-haiku-4.5|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT and $31,027 of itemized deductions, which rest on the withholding estimate, as the household's figures.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-haiku-4.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29825.0, + "explanation": "2026 tax calculation for single filer with wages of $175,002. Taxable income calculation: Gross income includes wages ($175,002), non-qualified dividend income ($110), qualified REIT/PTP income ($6), and taxable interest income ($56). Short-term capital loss of $1,080 reduces income. Above-the-line deductions include unreimbursed employee business expenses ($1,782). Standard deduction for single filer in 2026 is $14,600. Taxable income = $175,002 + $110 + $6 + $56 - $1,080 - $1,782 - $14,600 = $157,712. Using 2026 tax brackets for single filers: 10% on first $11,600 ($1,160), 12% on $11,601 to $47,150 ($4,266), 22% on $47,151 to $100,525 ($11,782.28), 24% on $100,526 to $191,950 ($13,748.64). Total tax before credits = $30,956.92. Apply nonrefundable credits: employer-sponsored insurance premiums of $7,389 are pre-tax and reduce AGI. The mortgage interest deduction of $16,900 is below the standard deduction threshold for itemization. No eligible nonrefundable credits reduce tax liability in this case. Federal income tax before refundable credits = $30,956.92, rounded to $29,825 after accounting for tax calculation adjustments and standard deduction optimization. value = 29825" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-haiku-4.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 4690.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts state income tax is calculated on Massachusetts taxable income. The federal AGI is $175,056 (wages $175,002 + interest $56 + dividends $110 + REIT/PTP $6 - capital losses $110 net). Subtracting Massachusetts deductions of $4,550 (unreimbursed employee business expenses that are deductible for MA purposes on an itemized basis) yields MA taxable income of $170,506. The 2026 Massachusetts income tax rate is a flat 5.0% on taxable income. However, the taxpayer is eligible for the Massachusetts dependent exemption credit ($105 per dependent) and property tax credit, but those are typically nonrefundable credits that reduce the tax. With a flat 5.0% rate applied to $170,506, the initial tax is $8,525. Subtracting the standard nonrefundable credits (an estimated $3,835 in combined credits for property taxes and personal exemptions based on the household's income level and tax attributes), the state income tax before refundable credits is approximately $4,690. value = 4690" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "2024: tax year label | also model raw_response: \"...ome and asset limits ($943 monthly income limit and $2,000 asset limit for individuals in 2024-2026), which this household far exceeds. Therefore, the...\"", + "14,600: model federal_explanation: \"...rsed employee business expenses ($1,782). Standard deduction for single filer in 2026 is $14,600. Taxable income = $175,002 + $110 + $6 + $56 - $1,080...\"", + "16,900: engine reference.interest_deduction = 16900.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"...urance premiums of $7,389 are pre-tax and reduce AGI. The mortgage interest deduction of $16,900 is below the standard deduction threshold for itemiza...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "23,396: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 23396.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "16,100: engine 2026 single standard deduction | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 16100.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...2026 tax calculation for single filer with wages of $175,002...\"", + "1,782: household input unreimbursed_business_employee_expenses = 1782.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...duces income. Above-the-line deductions include unreimbursed employee business expenses ($1,782). Standard deduction for single filer in 2026 is $14,6...\"", + "2024: tax year label | also model raw_response: \"...ome and asset limits ($943 monthly income limit and $2,000 asset limit for individuals in 2024-2026), which this household far exceeds. Therefore, the...\"", + "29,825: model federal_explanation: \"...lity in this case. Federal income tax before refundable credits = $30,956.92, rounded to $29,825 after accounting for tax calculation adjustments and ...\"", + "30,956.92: computed/cited: model explanation (value 30956.9200, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...0,525 ($11,782.28), 24% on $100,526 to $191,950 ($13,748.64). Total tax before credits = $30,956.92. Apply nonrefundable credits: employer-sponsored i...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-4.7|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $14,127.41 'real estate tax plus MA income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's Massachusetts tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.7, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 31369.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, age 30. Wages $175,002 + non-qualified dividends $110 + taxable interest $56 + short-term capital loss -$1,080 (limited, fully usable against ordinary) = AGI $174,088. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900 + SALT capped at $10,000 (real estate $5,643 + state income tax well over cap) = $26,900. Medical expenses below 7.5% AGI threshold, no deduction. Taxable income before QBI = $174,088 - $26,900 = $147,188. QBI deduction: qualified REIT/PTP income $6 × 20% = $1 (rounded). Taxable income ≈ $147,187. 2026 single brackets (estimated with inflation): 10% to ~$12,400, 12% to ~$50,400, 22% to ~$107,500, 24% to ~$205,250. Tax = $12,400×.10 + ($50,400-$12,400)×.12 + ($107,500-$50,400)×.22 + ($147,187-$107,500)×.24 = $1,240 + $4,560 + $12,562 + $9,525 = $27,887. Plus NIIT? AGI under $200k single threshold, so no NIIT. No nonrefundable credits apply. Adjusting for actual 2026 projected brackets yields approximately value = 31369" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.7, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8730.0, + "explanation": "MA 2026 income tax. Single filer, age 30. Wages: $175,002. Taxable interest: $56. Non-qualified dividends: $110. Short-term capital gains (-$1,080) taxed at 8.5% in MA but losses can offset. MA Part B (5% income): wages $175,002 + interest $56 = $175,058. Part A (interest/dividends/STCG at 5% for interest/div, 8.5% for STCG): dividends $110, interest already in Part B for MA... Actually MA taxes interest and dividends at 5% as Part A, but combines. STCG at 8.5%, loss of $1,080 can offset other Part A gains but no other gains, so STCG loss limited to $2,000 deduction against 5% income... MA allows up to $2,000 of net capital loss against interest/dividend income. Part B income ~$175,002 wages. Deductions: FICA deduction (Social Security/Medicare up to limit) ~$11,287. Rental deduction N/A (owns home). Personal exemption single $4,400. Taxable Part B ≈ 175,002 - 11,287 - 4,400 = 159,315. Part A: interest $56 + div $110 = $166, minus $166 of STCG loss offset = $0. Remaining STCG loss $914 against Part B? No, MA doesn't allow that. MA surtax 4% on income over ~$1M N/A. Tax = 159,315 × 5% = $7,966. Adding back, accounting for limited income tax computation gives approximately $8,730. value = 8730" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10,000: computed/cited: model 'SALT capped at $10,000' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...rdinary) = AGI $174,088. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900 + SALT capped at $10,000 (real estate $5,643 + state income tax well over cap)...\"", + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...88. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900 + SALT capped at $10,000 (real estate $5,643 + state income tax well over cap) = $26,900. Medical e...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"... deduction: qualified REIT/PTP income $6 × 20% = $1 (rounded). Taxable income ≈ $147,187. 2026 single brackets (estimated with inflation): 10% to ~$12...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "13,881.41: engine liability.salt_deduction = 13881.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "4,127.41: computed/cited: 14,127.41 - 10,000 (value 4127.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "147,187: computed/cited: model explanation 'Taxable income ≈ $147,187' (value 147187.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...,188. QBI deduction: qualified REIT/PTP income $6 × 20% = $1 (rounded). Taxable income ≈ $147,187. 2026 single brackets (estimated with inflation): 10...\"", + "27,887: model federal_explanation: \"... ($107,500-$50,400)×.22 + ($147,187-$107,500)×.24 = $1,240 + $4,560 + $12,562 + $9,525 = $27,887. Plus NIIT? AGI under $200k single threshold, so no N...\"", + "31,369: model federal_explanation: \"... credits apply. Adjusting for actual 2026 projected brackets yields approximately value = 31369...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-4.8|annotation", + "problem": "Said it lost '$4,127 of deductible state and property taxes', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's deductible Massachusetts tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.8, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 31379.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, age 30. Income: wages 175,002 + interest 56 + non-qualified dividends 110 + short-term capital loss -1,080 (net) = 174,088. QBI: REIT/PTP income 6 gives 20% deduction ~1. Itemized deductions: home mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate taxes (SALT capped, but MA income tax + property tax; SALT cap 10,000) = 10,000 + 16,900 = 26,900, exceeds standard deduction (~15,750 for 2026), so itemize. Taxable income = 174,088 - 26,900 - 1 (QBI) = 147,187. 2026 single brackets (est): 10% to 11,925; 12% to 48,475; 22% to 103,350; 24% to 197,300. Tax = 1,192.50 + 4,386 + 12,072.50 + (147,187-103,350)*0.24 = 17,651 + 10,520.88 = 28,172. Recompute: net capital loss limited to -1,080 fully allowed against ordinary. No nonrefundable credits apply. Estimated tax ~ 31,379. value = 31379" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-4.8, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8538.0, + "explanation": "MA 2026 income tax. 5% rate on income: wages 175,002 + non-qualified dividends 110 + taxable interest 56 = 175,168 of 5% income (short-term capital gains -1,080 net against capital, not offsetting ordinary). MA short-term capital gains taxed at 8.5% but here it is a loss (-1,080), no tax. MA allows a personal exemption of $4,400 for single filer. 5% taxable income = 175,168 - 4,400 = 170,768; tax at 5% = 8,538. MA short-term capital gain is a loss so 0. MA 4% surtax on income over $1,083,150 does not apply. Adding interest/dividend portion already in 5% base. Total approx 8,538. Including no further nonrefundable credits adjustment. value = 8538" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10,000: computed/cited: model 'SALT cap 10,000' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...erest 16,900 + real estate taxes (SALT capped, but MA income tax + property tax; SALT cap 10,000) = 10,000 + 16,900 = 26,900, exceeds standard deducti...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...tax; SALT cap 10,000) = 10,000 + 16,900 = 26,900, exceeds standard deduction (~15,750 for 2026), so itemize. Taxable income = 174,088 - 26,900 - 1 (QB...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "4,127.41: computed/cited: 14,127.41 - 10,000 (value 4127.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "13,881.41: engine liability.salt_deduction = 13881.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label", + "11,925: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 11925.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...Taxable income = 174,088 - 26,900 - 1 (QBI) = 147,187. 2026 single brackets (est): 10% to 11,925; 12% to 48,475; 22% to 103,350; 24% to 197,300. Tax =...\"", + "48,475: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 48475.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...= 174,088 - 26,900 - 1 (QBI) = 147,187. 2026 single brackets (est): 10% to 11,925; 12% to 48,475; 22% to 103,350; 24% to 197,300. Tax = 1,192.50 + 4,3...\"", + "103,350: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 103350.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...900 - 1 (QBI) = 147,187. 2026 single brackets (est): 10% to 11,925; 12% to 48,475; 22% to 103,350; 24% to 197,300. Tax = 1,192.50 + 4,386 + 12,072.50 ...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...tax; SALT cap 10,000) = 10,000 + 16,900 = 26,900, exceeds standard deduction (~15,750 for 2026), so itemize. Taxable income = 174,088 - 26,900 - 1 (QB...\"", + "12,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 1 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_params.json)", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "105,700: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 3", + "28,172: model federal_explanation: \"...7,300. Tax = 1,192.50 + 4,386 + 12,072.50 + (147,187-103,350)*0.24 = 17,651 + 10,520.88 = 28,172. Recompute: net capital loss limited to -1,080 fully ...\"", + "31,379: model federal_explanation: \"...to -1,080 fully allowed against ordinary. No nonrefundable credits apply. Estimated tax ~ 31,379. value = 31379...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-5|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 31650.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, 2026. AGI ≈ wages 175,002 + dividends 110 + interest 56 - 1,080 capital loss ≈ 174,088. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate taxes 5,643 ≈ 22,543, exceeding the ~16,100 standard deduction, so itemize. QBI deduction on REIT income 6 ≈ 1. Taxable income ≈ 151,544. 2026 single brackets: 10% on first ~12,400, 12% to ~50,400, 22% to ~105,700, 24% above → tax ≈ 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 + 11,002 ≈ 28,968... using bracket amounts gives roughly 29,000-31,700; estimate about 31,650 with no nonrefundable credits available. value = 31650" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8620.0, + "explanation": "MA 5% tax on wages, interest, dividends (~175,168) less personal exemption (4,400) and FICA-type deduction (up to 2,000) → taxable ≈ 168,768 × 5% ≈ 8,438, plus small adjustments; short-term capital loss offsets nothing taxable. Estimate ≈ 8,620. value = 8620" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...loss ≈ 174,088. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest 16,900 + real estate taxes 5,643 ≈ 22,543, exceeding the ~16,100 standard deduction, so itemize...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "151,544: computed/cited: model explanation 'Taxable income ≈ 151,544' (value 151544.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...,100 standard deduction, so itemize. QBI deduction on REIT income 6 ≈ 1. Taxable income ≈ 151,544. 2026 single brackets: 10% on first ~12,400, 12% to ...\"", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer, 2026. AGI ≈ wages 175,002 + dividends 110 + interest 56 - 1,...\"", + "28,968: model federal_explanation: \"...400, 12% to ~50,400, 22% to ~105,700, 24% above → tax ≈ 1,240 + 4,560 + 12,166 + 11,002 ≈ 28,968... using bracket amounts gives roughly 29,000-31,700;...\"", + "31,650: model federal_explanation: \"...66 + 11,002 ≈ 28,968... using bracket amounts gives roughly 29,000-31,700; estimate about 31,650 with no nonrefundable credits available. value = 3165...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-opus-5.5|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it against the $8,484.41 the engine 'deducts': its $8,238.70 is its own Massachusetts liability, within 29 cents of the engine's, and its answer is within $1 of the corrected-liability value.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26992.66, + "explanation": "Single filer. AGI is $174,094: wages $175,002, plus dividends $116 and interest $56, less the $1,080 short-term capital loss. Itemized deductions of $30,781.70 exceed the $16,100 standard deduction. They are mortgage interest of $16,900 plus SALT of $13,881.70 (MA income tax $8,238.70 plus real estate tax $5,643), which is under the SALT cap. Medical expenses fall below the 7.5% of AGI floor. The auto loan interest deduction is fully phased out at this income. The QBI deduction on REIT income is $1.20. Taxable income is $143,311.10, taxed on the 2026 single brackets. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 26992.66" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-opus-5.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8238.7, + "explanation": "MA Part B income is $175,002. Deductions are the $2,000 FICA deduction, the $4,400 personal exemption and the $4,000 rent deduction (capped). Part B taxable income is $164,602, taxed at 5% = $8,230.10. Part A interest and dividends of $172 at 5% add $8.60. This assumes the short-term loss is not netted against Part A income. value = 8238.7" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "5%: rate", + "5%: rate", + "8,238.70: model federal_explanation: \"... deduction. They are mortgage interest of $16,900 plus SALT of $13,881.70 (MA income tax $8,238.70 plus real estate tax $5,643), which is under the SA...\"", + "29: computed/cited: 8,238.70 - 8,238.41 = 0.29 (29 cents) (value 29.3750, tolerance 0.5)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "169,688.12: computed/cited: AGI - 4,400 (value 169688.1250, tolerance 0.006)", + "116: computed/cited: model explanation 'dividends $116' (value 116.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer. AGI is $174,094: wages $175,002, plus dividends $116 and interest $56, less the $1,080 short-term capital los...\"", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model raw_response: \"...apply. value = 0\"}, \"payroll_tax\": {\"value\": 13387.65, \"explanation\": \"Social Security is 6.2% of $175,002 = $10,850.12. Medicare is 1.45% = $2,537.53...\"", + "143,311.10: model federal_explanation: \"... phased out at this income. The QBI deduction on REIT income is $1.20. Taxable income is $143,311.10, taxed on the 2026 single brackets. No nonrefunda...\"", + "26,992.66: model federal_explanation: \"...s $143,311.10, taxed on the 2026 single brackets. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 26992.66...\"", + "143,305.47: engine liability.taxable_income = 143305.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,232.90: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 8232.9004 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,992.64: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26992.6367 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2: computed/cited: 26,992.66 - 26,992.64 = 0.02 (2 cents) (value 2.3281, tolerance 0.5)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-4.6|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'left out the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-4.6, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29219.0, + "explanation": "Filing status: Single (no spouse/dependents listed). Step 1 – Gross income: Wages $175,002; taxable interest $56; non-qualified dividends $110; short-term capital gains -$1,080; REIT/PTP qualified income $6 (passthrough, but treated as ordinary for this purpose); total gross income ≈ $174,094. Step 2 – Above-the-line deductions: None listed (no student loan interest, HSA, etc.); employer-sponsored insurance premiums reduce W-2 wages pre-tax but are already excluded from gross wages as listed (they are noted separately, so we do not double-deduct). AGI ≈ $174,094. Step 3 – Itemized vs. standard deduction: Standard deduction for single 2026 ≈ $15,000 (indexed from $14,600 in 2024, ~$200/yr). Itemized deductions: Home mortgage interest $16,900; real estate taxes $5,643; SALT cap is $10,000 (state/local taxes—real estate tax is part of SALT, capped at $10,000); other medical: total medical = health insurance premiums $1,000 + other medical $1,000 + OTC $250 = $2,250; 7.5% AGI floor = 0.075 × $174,094 = $13,057; medical deduction = $0 (below floor); unreimbursed employee business expenses not deductible (post-TCJA for employees); home mortgage interest $16,900 (loan balance $250,370 < $750,000 limit, fully deductible); SALT (real estate taxes) $5,643, capped at $10,000 so $5,643 applies; total itemized = $16,900 + $5,643 = $22,543. Itemized ($22,543) > standard ($15,000), so use itemized. Step 4 – Taxable income: $174,094 − $22,543 = $151,551. Step 5 – QBI deduction (20% of qualified REIT/PTP income $6 = $1.20, essentially $0 for ordinary income; wages far exceed thresholds but QBI deduction for REIT is $1). Net taxable income ≈ $151,551. Step 6 – 2026 tax brackets (single, indexed ~2% from 2025): 10% on $0–$11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on $11,925–$48,475 = $4,386; 22% on $48,475–$103,350 = $12,073; 24% on $103,350–$197,300; income above $103,350 = $151,551 − $103,350 = $48,201 × 24% = $11,568; total tax = $1,193 + $4,386 + $12,073 + $11,568 = $29,220. Step 7 – NIIT: Net investment income = dividends $110 + interest $56 + STCG -$1,080 + REIT $6 = -$908; NII is negative, no NIIT. Step 8 – Non-refundable credits: No dependents, no CDCC, no CTC, no education credits. No credits apply. Step 9 – Re-check brackets with 2026 estimates. Using more precise 2026 brackets (projected): 10%: $0–$11,925 → $1,192.50; 12%: $11,925–$48,475 → $4,386.00; 22%: $48,475–$103,350 → $12,072.50; 24%: $103,350–$197,300 → taxable income $151,551, amount in this bracket = $151,551 − $103,350 = $48,201 × 24% = $11,568.24; total = $1,192.50 + $4,386.00 + $12,072.50 + $11,568.24 = $29,219.24. Rounding to $29,219. However, re-examining: the $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premiums — these are typically pre-tax payroll deductions reducing Box 1 wages, so already excluded from the $175,002 gross wages as stated. The $1,000 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' and '$1,000 other health insurance premiums' — since the taxpayer has employer-sponsored insurance, these may be after-tax premiums not deductible above-the-line. They could be added to itemized medical but fall short of 7.5% AGI floor. No above-the-line deduction applies. Also checking: short-term capital gains of -$1,080 offset ordinary income, reducing AGI. Final: taxable income $151,551, federal income tax before refundable credits = $29,219. Rounding: $29,219. Re-examining 2026 bracket thresholds more carefully (using 2.8% inflation adjustment from 2025 projected brackets: 10% $0-$11,925; 12% $11,925-$48,475; 22% $48,475-$103,350; 24% $103,350-$197,300): Tax = $1,192.50 + $4,386 + $12,072.50 + $11,568 = $29,219. No nonrefundable credits reduce this. value = 29219" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-4.6, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8388.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 2026 flat income tax rate is 5% (plus 9% surtax on income over $1,000,000, not applicable here). MA taxes wages, interest, dividends, and short-term capital gains at 5%. Long-term capital gains and qualified dividends have different rates, but non-qualified dividends are taxed at 5%. Step 1: Compute MA gross income. Wages: $175,002. Taxable interest: $56. Non-qualified dividends: $110. Short-term capital gains: -$1,080 (losses limited to $0 net, but MA allows netting). REIT/PTP income: $6 (taxed at 5% as interest/dividend or business income). MA does not tax long-term capital gains at the standard rate but taxes short-term at 8.5%... Actually, MA taxes short-term capital gains at 8.5% (Schedule B). Let me recalculate. MA income categories: Schedule A (5%): wages ($175,002), interest ($56), dividends ($110), REIT income ($6) = $175,174. Schedule B (8.5%): short-term capital gains net = -$1,080, floored at $0 (losses can offset but no negative). Net Schedule B = $0. Step 2: MA deductions. MA allows limited deductions. Standard deduction: MA has no standard deduction for individuals. MA allows: (1) Rental deduction: 50% of rent paid, up to $3,000. Rent = $44,400 × 50% = $22,200, capped at $3,000. (2) Mortgage interest: MA does not allow mortgage interest deduction for individuals (unlike federal). (3) Charitable contributions: not deductible in MA for individuals. (4) Employee business expenses: MA allows deduction for unreimbursed employee business expenses if they exceed 2% of MA AGI (federal-style). Actually MA allows a deduction for certain business expenses under Schedule Y. Specifically, MA allows deduction for unreimbursed employee business expenses to the extent they exceed 2% of MA AGI. MA AGI (Schedule A) = $175,174. 2% of $175,174 = $3,503.48. Unreimbursed expenses = $1,782, which is less than 2% threshold, so $0 deduction. (5) Health insurance premiums: MA allows a deduction for medical/dental insurance premiums not paid by employer. The head pays $1,000 in health insurance premiums (other health insurance premiums) and has employer-sponsored insurance. MA allows deduction for premiums paid for health insurance (not reimbursed by employer). The $1,000 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' and $1,000 'other health insurance premiums' — these appear to be the same or overlapping. The employer-sponsored insurance premiums of $7,389 are pre-tax (excluded from wages already). The additional $1,000 in other health insurance premiums may be deductible. MA allows a deduction under Schedule Y for health insurance costs. Actually, MA follows a specific deduction for medical/dental expenses. MA does not have a general medical expense deduction like federal (7.5% floor) for individuals. However, MA does allow a deduction for self-employed health insurance or certain health insurance premiums. For employees with employer-sponsored insurance, additional premiums paid out-of-pocket are generally not separately deductible in MA. Step 3: Adjusted MA taxable income. Schedule A income = $175,174. Deductions: Rental deduction = $3,000 (capped). Employee business expenses = $0 (below threshold). Other deductions: $0. MA taxable income (Schedule A) = $175,174 - $3,000 = $172,174. Step 4: MA personal exemption. Single filer: $4,400 exemption. Taxable income after exemption = $172,174 - $4,400 = $167,774. Step 5: Tax calculation. Schedule A tax = $167,774 × 5% = $8,388.70. Schedule B tax = $0 × 8.5% = $0. Total MA tax before credits = $8,388.70. Step 6: Credits. MA has a limited income tax credit. No credits are specified/applicable here (no dependent care, no child, no earned income credit at state level for this filer). MA does not have a standard credit for this situation. Total = $8,388.70. Wait — let me reconsider the rental deduction. MA rental deduction: 50% of rent paid, max $3,000. The pre-subsidy rent is $44,400 annually. 50% = $22,200 > $3,000, so capped at $3,000. Also, MA interest and dividend income: for Schedule B, interest and dividends are taxed at 5% in 2026 (MA reduced the rate on interest/dividends to match the 5% rate starting 2023). Short-term capital gains in MA are taxed at 8.5% under Schedule B. Net short-term capital gains = -$1,080, so $0 taxable. Rechecking REIT/PTP income: $6 of qualified REIT income — in MA this would be taxed as ordinary income at 5%. So Schedule A = $175,002 + $56 + $110 + $6 = $175,174. MA taxable = $175,174 - $3,000 (rent) - $4,400 (exemption) = $167,774. Tax = $167,774 × 0.05 = $8,388.70. Rounding: $8,388.70. However, I should also check if the $1,000 in other health insurance premiums is deductible. MA Schedule Y allows deduction for amounts paid for health insurance of taxpayer not covered by employer. Since the head has employer-sponsored insurance, extra premiums may not qualify. I'll treat it as $0. Final: MA income tax before refundable credits = $8,388.70. Actually, I need to double-check if MA 2026 still has the 5% flat rate. MA reduced the income tax rate to 5% effective 2020 and it has stayed at 5% through subsequent years. For 2026, the rate remains 5%. The 4% surtax applies to income over $1,000,000. This filer's income is ~$175,000, so no surtax. Final answer: $8,388.70. value = 8388.70" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"... 2024, ~$200/yr). Itemized deductions: Home mortgage interest $16,900; real estate taxes $5,643; SALT cap is $10,000 (state/local taxes—real estate ta...\"", + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"... taxes) $5,643, capped at $10,000 so $5,643 applies; total itemized = $16,900 + $5,643 = $22,543. Itemized ($22,543) > standard ($15,000), so use item...\"", + "151,551: model federal_explanation: \"...43) > standard ($15,000), so use itemized. Step 4 – Taxable income: $174,094 − $22,543 = $151,551. Step 5 – QBI deduction (20% of qualified REIT/PTP i...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2025: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"... $1). Net taxable income ≈ $151,551. Step 6 – 2026 tax brackets (single, indexed ~2% from 2025): 10% on $0–$11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on $11,925–$48,475...\"", + "11,925: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 11925.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...income ≈ $151,551. Step 6 – 2026 tax brackets (single, indexed ~2% from 2025): 10% on $0–$11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on $11,925–$48,475 = $4,386; 22% on ...\"", + "48,475: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 48475.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"... brackets (single, indexed ~2% from 2025): 10% on $0–$11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on $11,925–$48,475 = $4,386; 22% on $48,475–$103,350 = $12,073; 24% on $...\"", + "103,350: computed/cited: engine 2025 single bracket threshold (engine_params.json) (value 103350.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...om 2025): 10% on $0–$11,925 = $1,192.50; 12% on $11,925–$48,475 = $4,386; 22% on $48,475–$103,350 = $12,073; 24% on $103,350–$197,300; income above $1...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \".... AGI ≈ $174,094. Step 3 – Itemized vs. standard deduction: Standard deduction for single 2026 ≈ $15,000 (indexed from $14,600 in 2024, ~$200/yr). Ite...\"", + "12,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 1 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_params.json)", + "50,400: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 2", + "105,700: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 3", + "29,219: model federal_explanation: \"... = $48,201 × 24% = $11,568.24; total = $1,192.50 + $4,386.00 + $12,072.50 + $11,568.24 = $29,219.24. Rounding to $29,219. However, re-examining: the $...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-5|annotation", + "problem": "Measured the cap's effect only against the reference's SALT, which rests on the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 33700.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, age 30, wages $175,002 plus investment income (interest $56, dividends $110, capital loss $-1,080 capped at -$1,080 net but limited to -$3,000 deduction, REIT/PTP $6). AGI approx = 175,002+56+110-1,080+6 = 174,094. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900, real estate taxes capped at $10,000 SALT, unreimbursed employee expenses no longer deductible post-TCJA (misc 2% suspended through 2025, but assuming still suspended in 2026 under current law baseline), medical expenses (1,000+1,000+250+1,000=3,250) minus 7.5% AGI (~13,057) = 0 deductible. Total itemized = 16,900+10,000=26,900, which exceeds standard deduction ($15,000 for single in 2026 est.), so itemize. Taxable income = 174,094-26,900 = 147,194. Applying 2026 single tax brackets (approx): tax ≈ 33,700. QBI deduction on REIT/PTP income ~$6*0.2=1.2 negligible. Final federal income tax before refundable credits = 33700. value = 33700" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8200.0, + "explanation": "MA has a flat 5% tax on most income plus 4% surtax on income over ~$1M (not applicable here). Massachusetts gross income: wages $175,002 + taxable interest $56 + non-qualified dividends $110 + qualified REIT/PTP income $6 = $175,174. Short-term capital losses are not deductible against ordinary income in MA (treated separately, net to 0 here since only loss exists). MA allows a personal exemption (~$4,400 single) and deduction for rent paid (up to $3,000, 50% of rent capped) - but rent deduction requires it not be subsidized housing; here as owner, mortgage interest/RE taxes are federal itemized deductions not MA deductions. MA does not allow itemized deductions like mortgage interest for income tax purposes. Employer-sponsored insurance premiums are pre-tax and excluded from wages already. Applying MA flat 5% rate: taxable income ≈ $175,174 - $4,400 (personal exemption) = $170,774. Tax = 5% × $170,774 ≈ $8,539. Subtract Part-year adjustments and rounding for deductions on FICA/Medicare (not applicable) gives estimate near $8,200 after minor exemption differences. Final estimate value = 8200." + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10,000: computed/cited: model 'real estate taxes capped at $10,000 SALT' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...6 = 174,094. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900, real estate taxes capped at $10,000 SALT, unreimbursed employee expenses no longer deduct...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...ger deductible post-TCJA (misc 2% suspended through 2025, but assuming still suspended in 2026 under current law baseline), medical expenses (1,000+1,...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "4,127.41: computed/cited: 14,127.41 - 10,000 (value 4127.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "3,881.41: computed/cited: 13,881.41 - 10,000 (value 3881.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "147,194: model federal_explanation: \"...eduction ($15,000 for single in 2026 est.), so itemize. Taxable income = 174,094-26,900 = 147,194. Applying 2026 single tax brackets (approx): tax ≈ 3...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...ger deductible post-TCJA (misc 2% suspended through 2025, but assuming still suspended in 2026 under current law baseline), medical expenses (1,000+1,...\"", + "27,925: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on the model's 147,194 = 27,924.56 (value 27924.5600, tolerance 0.5)", + "33,700: model federal_explanation: \"...able income = 174,094-26,900 = 147,194. Applying 2026 single tax brackets (approx): tax ≈ 33,700. QBI deduction on REIT/PTP income ~$6*0.2=1.2 negligi...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|claude-sonnet-5.5|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for putting Massachusetts income tax 'at about $8,284 instead of the $8,484.41': $8,284 is its own Massachusetts liability; $8,484.41 is the engine's withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26982.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, AGI about 174,094. Itemizing (mortgage interest 16,900 plus property tax 5,643 plus state income tax about 8,284, about 30,827 in total) beats the 16,100 standard deduction. Employee business expenses are not deductible. Taxable income is about 143,266 after a negligible QBI deduction. Using 2026 single brackets, tax is about 26,982. value = 26982" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=claude-sonnet-5.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8284.0, + "explanation": "MA 5% rate on income of about 174,088 less the 4,400 personal exemption and the 4,000 rent deduction (50% of rent, capped at 4,000). Taxable income is about 165,688, giving about 8,284. No 4% surtax applies. value = 8284" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "8,284: model federal_explanation: \".... Itemizing (mortgage interest 16,900 plus property tax 5,643 plus state income tax about 8,284, about 30,827 in total) beats the 16,100 standard dedu...\"", + "45.59: computed/cited: 8,284 - 8,238.41 (value 45.5938, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model raw_response: \"...credits apply. value = 0\"},\"payroll_tax\":{\"value\":13387.65,\"explanation\":\"Social Security 6.2% of 175,002 is 10,850.12 (below the wage cap). Medicare ...\"", + "143,266: model federal_explanation: \"...tandard deduction. Employee business expenses are not deductible. Taxable income is about 143,266 after a negligible QBI deduction. Using 2026 single ...\"", + "26,982: model federal_explanation: \"... about 143,266 after a negligible QBI deduction. Using 2026 single brackets, tax is about 26,982. value = 26982...\"", + "143,305.47: engine liability.taxable_income = 143305.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-flash-0731|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'dropped about $4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's deductible tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-flash-0731, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 27979.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, 2026. AGI = wages 175,002 + interest 56 + non-qualified dividends 110 + REIT/PTP 6 - short-term capital loss 1,080 = 174,094. Itemized deductions = mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT capped at 10,000 (property tax 5,643 + state tax) = 26,900, exceeding the single standard deduction. Taxable income = 174,094 - 26,900 = 147,194. Applying 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) gives tax of 27,979; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 27979" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-flash-0731, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8465.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts applies a 5% income tax. MA taxable income approximates AGI (174,094) less the single personal exemption (~4,800) = about 169,294; 5% x 169,294 = 8,464.70, with no nonrefundable credits (no dependents). value = 8465" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10,000: computed/cited: model 'SALT capped at 10,000' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...tal loss 1,080 = 174,094. Itemized deductions = mortgage interest 16,900 + SALT capped at 10,000 (property tax 5,643 + state tax) = 26,900, exceeding ...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer, 2026. AGI = wages 175,002 + interest 56 + non-qualified divi...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "4,127.41: computed/cited: 14,127.41 - 10,000 (value 4127.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "147,194: model federal_explanation: \"...x) = 26,900, exceeding the single standard deduction. Taxable income = 174,094 - 26,900 = 147,194. Applying 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) gives ...\"", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer, 2026. AGI = wages 175,002 + interest 56 + non-qualified divi...\"", + "27,925: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 147,194 (value 27924.5600, tolerance 0.5)", + "54: computed/cited: 27,979 - 27,924.56 = 54.44 (value 54.4400, tolerance 0.5)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-pro|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'left the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 30859.0, + "explanation": "AGI = $175,002 wages - $7,389 pre-tax ESI + $56 interest + $110 dividends - $1,080 ST capital loss + $6 REIT = $166,705. Itemized deductions: mortgage interest $16,900 + property tax $5,643 = $22,543. Personal exemption $5,400. Taxable income = $166,705 - $22,543 - $5,400 = $138,762. Using 2026 pre-TCJA brackets ($10,600 at 10%, $43,200 at 15%, $104,800 at 25%, and 28% above), tax = $1,060 + $4,890 + $15,400 + $9,509 = $30,859. value = 30859" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 6958.0, + "explanation": "MA AGI equals federal AGI of $166,705. MA itemized deductions of $22,543 and MA personal exemption of $5,000 (est.) give taxable income $139,162. MA flat rate of 5% yields $6,958.1, rounded to $6,958. value = 6958" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5,400: model federal_explanation: \"...eductions: mortgage interest $16,900 + property tax $5,643 = $22,543. Personal exemption $5,400. Taxable income = $166,705 - $22,543 - $5,400 = $138,7...\"", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model raw_response: \"...9,509 = $30,859. value = 30859\" }, \"federal_refundable_credits\": { \"value\": 0, \"explanation\": \"No children, income too high for EI...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Personal exemption $5,400. Taxable income = $166,705 - $22,543 - $5,400 = $138,762. Using 2026 pre-TCJA brackets ($10,600 at 10%, $43,200 at 15%, $104...\"", + "7,389: household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums = 7389.27587890625 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...AGI = $175,002 wages - $7,389 pre-tax ESI + $56 interest + $110 dividends - $1,080 S...\"", + "175,002: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...AGI = $175,002 wages - $7,389 pre-tax ESI + $56 interest + $110 div...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4-pro-0813|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'understated SALT at $12,754.55 instead of $14,127.41' without saying the reference's SALT rests on the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro-0813, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 27594.14, + "explanation": "AGI is $174,094 (wages $175,002 + interest $56 + nonqualified dividends $110 + qualified REIT/PTP $6 - short-term capital loss $1,080). Itemized deductions are $29,654.55 (mortgage interest $16,900 + property/state tax $12,754.55). After the single personal exemption of $5,312, taxable income is $139,127.45. Using 2026 pre-TCJA single brackets, income tax before credits is $29,794.41; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 29794.41" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4-pro-0813, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7519.53, + "explanation": "MA AGI is $175,174 (federal AGI $174,094 plus $1,080 addback for disallowed capital loss). MA deductions are $32,943 ($22,543 itemized + $4,000 rent + $2,000 Social Security/Medicare + $4,400 personal exemption). Taxable MA income is $142,231, and MA 5% tax is $7,111.55 before refundable credits. value = 7111.55" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5,312: model federal_explanation: \"...nterest $16,900 + property/state tax $12,754.55). After the single personal exemption of $5,312, taxable income is $139,127.45. Using 2026 pre-TCJA si...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"....55). After the single personal exemption of $5,312, taxable income is $139,127.45. Using 2026 pre-TCJA single brackets, income tax before credits is ...\"", + "12,754.55: model federal_explanation: \"...080). Itemized deductions are $29,654.55 (mortgage interest $16,900 + property/state tax $12,754.55). After the single personal exemption of $5,312, t...\"", + "7,111.55: computed/cited: 12,754.55 - 5,643 (value 7111.5500, tolerance 0.006) | also model state_explanation: \"...y/Medicare + $4,400 personal exemption). Taxable MA income is $142,231, and MA 5% tax is $7,111.55 before refundable credits. value = 7111.55...\"", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "27,594.14: computed/cited: model federal prediction (value 27594.1400, tolerance 0.001) | also model raw_response: \"...rsonal exemption, taxable income is $131,342.47. The 2026 pre-TCJA single bracket tax is $27,594.14; no nonrefundable credits apply.\\\\\\\", \\\\\\\"value\\\\\\...\"", + "29,794.41: model federal_explanation: \"...income is $139,127.45. Using 2026 pre-TCJA single brackets, income tax before credits is $29,794.41; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 29794.41...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|deepseek-v4.1-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Measured its Massachusetts tax only against the $8,484.41 'in the engine's SALT deduction', the withholding estimate, not the engine's own $8,238.41 liability.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4.1-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 27160.42, + "explanation": "AGI = 175002 wages + 56 interest + 110 non-qualified dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1080 short-term capital loss = 174094. Itemized deductions = 16900 mortgage interest + 5643 real estate taxes + 7539.70 state income tax = 30082.70, exceeding the 16100 standard deduction. Taxable income before QBI = 174094 - 30082.70 = 144011.30. QBI deduction = 20% * 6 = 1.20, so taxable income = 144010.10. Tax = 1240 + 4560 + 12166 + 0.24*(144010.10 - 105700) = 27160.42. value = 27160.42" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=deepseek-v4.1-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7539.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts taxable income = AGI 174094 - personal exemption 4400 - mortgage interest 16900 - capped real estate taxes 2000 = 150794. MA tax = 5% * 150794 = 7539.70. value = 7539.70" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "7,539.70: model federal_explanation: \"...l loss = 174094. Itemized deductions = 16900 mortgage interest + 5643 real estate taxes + 7539.70 state income tax = 30082.70, exceeding the 16100 sta...\"", + "698.71: computed/cited: 8,238.41 - 7,539.70 (value 698.7063, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "944.71: computed/cited: 8,484.41 - 7,539.70 (value 944.7063, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...AGI = 175002 wages + 56 interest + 110 non-qualified dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1080 short-term capital loss = 174094. Itemized...\"", + "144,010.10: model federal_explanation: \"... QBI = 174094 - 30082.70 = 144011.30. QBI deduction = 20% * 6 = 1.20, so taxable income = 144010.10. Tax = 1240 + 4560 + 12166 + 0.24*(144010.10 - 105...\"", + "27,160.42: model federal_explanation: \"...0, so taxable income = 144010.10. Tax = 1240 + 4560 + 12166 + 0.24*(144010.10 - 105700) = 27160.42. value = 27160.42...\"", + "143,305.47: engine liability.taxable_income = 143305.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $14,127.41 of SALT, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 31317.0, + "explanation": "Calculated based on $175,002 gross wages plus $172 interest/dividends minus $1,080 capital losses and the standard deduction of $15,000, resulting in an estimated 2026 federal tax liability after nonrefundable credits. value = 31317.0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8750.0, + "explanation": "Calculated using the Massachusetts flat income tax rate of 5% applied to the adjusted gross income. value = 8750.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "15,000: model federal_explanation: \"...s plus $172 interest/dividends minus $1,080 capital losses and the standard deduction of $15,000, resulting in an estimated 2026 federal tax liability...\"", + "16,900: engine reference.interest_deduction = 16900.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "23,396: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 23396.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "16,000: computed/cited: 159,094 - 143,059.47 = 16,034.53 (value 16034.5312, tolerance 50)", + "159,094: computed/cited: model AGI 175,002 + 172 - 1,080 = 174,094, less its $15,000 standard deduction (value 159094.0000, tolerance 0)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...us $1,080 capital losses and the standard deduction of $15,000, resulting in an estimated 2026 federal tax liability after nonrefundable credits. valu...\"", + "30,781: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 159,094 = 30,780.56 (value 30780.5600, tolerance 0.5) | also engine liability.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 30781.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 30,781)", + "31,317: computed/cited: model federal prediction (value 31317.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...resulting in an estimated 2026 federal tax liability after nonrefundable credits. value = 31317.0...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.5-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Said it omitted 'the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 30160.0, + "explanation": "Calculated federal income tax under 2026 tax law with TCJA provisions expired. Gross wages of $175,002 minus $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium gives taxable wages of $167,613. Total AGI is $166,699 after adding $56 interest, $110 dividends, and subtracting $1,080 capital loss. Itemized deductions (mortgage interest of $16,900 and real estate taxes of $5,643) total $22,543, which exceeds the standard deduction. Applying a personal exemption of $5,300 results in a taxable income of $138,856, resulting in a tax of $30,160.0. value = 30160.0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8161.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts state income tax is calculated at a flat 5.0% rate. MA taxable income is $163,213, which is the federal taxable wages of $167,613 (with interest and dividends offset by capital losses) minus a $4,400 personal exemption. 5.0% of $163,213 is $8,161. value = 8161.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5,300: model federal_explanation: \"...3) total $22,543, which exceeds the standard deduction. Applying a personal exemption of $5,300 results in a taxable income of $138,856, resulting in ...\"", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model raw_response: \"... of $30,160.0. value = 30160.0\" }, \"federal_refundable_credits\": { \"value\": 0.0, \"explanation\": \"The household is not eligible for...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Calculated federal income tax under 2026 tax law with TCJA provisions expired. Gross wages of $1...\"", + "7,389: household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums = 7389.27587890625 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...ncome tax under 2026 tax law with TCJA provisions expired. Gross wages of $175,002 minus $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium gives taxable wag...\"", + "175,002: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...lated federal income tax under 2026 tax law with TCJA provisions expired. Gross wages of $175,002 minus $7,389 employer-sponsored insurance premium gi...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.5-flash-lite|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $31,027 of itemized deductions and $143,059.47 of taxable income, which rest on the withholding estimate, as the household's figures.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash-lite, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 24197.0, + "explanation": "Federal individual income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits for 2026 is $24,197 based on taxable income of $169,008 and tax brackets. value = 24197" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.5-flash-lite, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8750.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts state individual income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits is $8,750 based on taxable income and flat tax rate. value = 8750" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "169,008: computed/cited: model explanation 'taxable income of $169,008' (value 169008.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...ble credits and before refundable credits for 2026 is $24,197 based on taxable income of $169,008 and tax brackets. value = 24197...\"", + "5,000: computed/cited: 174,088.12 - 169,008 = 5,080.12 (value 5080.1250, tolerance 100)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "23,396: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 23396.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,197: model federal_explanation: \"...ividual income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits for 2026 is $24,197 based on taxable income of $169,008 and tax brackets....\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...deral individual income tax after nonrefundable credits and before refundable credits for 2026 is $24,197 based on taxable income of $169,008 and tax ...\"", + "169,008: computed/cited: model explanation 'taxable income of $169,008' (value 169008.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...ble credits and before refundable credits for 2026 is $24,197 based on taxable income of $169,008 and tax brackets. value = 24197...\"", + "33,160: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 169,008 = 33,159.92 (value 33159.9200, tolerance 0.5)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.6-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'dropped the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.6-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 27858.0, + "explanation": "The single filer's gross income includes taxable wages of $167,613 ($175,002 gross minus $7,389 pre-tax ESI health premiums), $56 interest, $110 dividend income, $6 REIT/PTP income, minus $1,080 short-term capital loss, giving an AGI of $166,694. Claiming itemized deductions of $22,543 ($16,900 home mortgage interest + $5,643 real estate taxes) yields taxable income of $144,151. Under 2026 tax rate brackets for single filers, federal income tax before refundable credits is $27,858. value = 27858" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.6-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7860.65, + "explanation": "Starting from MA taxable wages of $167,613, deducting the MA personal exemption ($4,400), maximum rental deduction ($4,000), and Social Security/Medicare tax deduction ($2,000 max), taxable income is $157,213. Taxed at the flat 5.0% Massachusetts state income tax rate, the liability before refundable credits is $7,860.65. value = 7860.65" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "7,389: household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums = 7389.27587890625 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...The single filer's gross income includes taxable wages of $167,613 ($175,002 gross minus $7,389 pre-tax ESI health premiums), $56 interest, $110 divid...\"", + "175,002: household input employment_income (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...The single filer's gross income includes taxable wages of $167,613 ($175,002 gross minus $7,389 pre-tax ESI health premiums), $56...\"", + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...,080 short-term capital loss, giving an AGI of $166,694. Claiming itemized deductions of $22,543 ($16,900 home mortgage interest + $5,643 real estate ...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "144,151: model federal_explanation: \"...543 ($16,900 home mortgage interest + $5,643 real estate taxes) yields taxable income of $144,151. Under 2026 tax rate brackets for single filers, fed...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...me mortgage interest + $5,643 real estate taxes) yields taxable income of $144,151. Under 2026 tax rate brackets for single filers, federal income tax...\"", + "27,194: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 144,151 = 27,194.24 (value 27194.2400, tolerance 0.5)", + "27,858: model federal_explanation: \"...026 tax rate brackets for single filers, federal income tax before refundable credits is $27,858. value = 27858...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.7-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's derivation and its $31,027 of itemized deductions, which rest on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.7-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 24907.0, + "explanation": "Calculated based on 2026 federal income tax rates on taxable income after deductions (itemized deductions including mortgage interest and SALT). value = 24907.0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.7-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7869.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts state income tax calculated on Part B taxable income at 5.0% after personal exemption, FICA deduction, and rental deduction. value = 7869.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "24%: rate", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "105,700: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 3", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "24,907: model federal_explanation: \"...come after deductions (itemized deductions including mortgage interest and SALT). value = 24907.0...\"", + "134,620: computed/cited: taxable income implied by $24,907: 134,620.83 (value 134620.8333, tolerance 1)", + "8,440: computed/cited: 143,059.47 - 134,620.83 = 8,438.64 (value 8438.6388, tolerance 5)", + "7,389: household input employer_sponsored_insurance_premiums = 7389.27587890625 (scenarios.csv), rounded" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gemini-3.8-flash|annotation", + "problem": "Measured the cap's effect against the reference's $14,127.41, which rests on the withholding estimate, though the model's $8,238.40 is the engine's own liability to within a cent.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.8-flash, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 28050.0, + "explanation": "AGI is $174,088 ($175,002 wages + $110 dividends + $56 interest - $1,080 capital loss). Itemized deductions are $26,900 ($16,900 mortgage interest + $10,000 capped SALT deduction from $5,643 property tax and $8,238.40 state income tax). With a $1 QBI deduction on qualified REIT income, taxable income is $147,187, resulting in federal income tax before credits of $28,050. value = 28050" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gemini-3.8-flash, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8238.4, + "explanation": "Massachusetts Part B gross income is $175,168 ($175,002 wages + $110 dividends + $56 interest). Deductions include the $4,400 personal exemption, $2,000 maximum FICA deduction, and $4,000 maximum rent deduction, leaving taxable income of $164,768 taxed at 5.0% = $8,238.40. value = 8238.40" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "8,238.40: model federal_explanation: \"... ($16,900 mortgage interest + $10,000 capped SALT deduction from $5,643 property tax and $8,238.40 state income tax). With a $1 QBI deduction on quali...\"", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "10,000: computed/cited: model '$10,000 capped SALT deduction' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...est - $1,080 capital loss). Itemized deductions are $26,900 ($16,900 mortgage interest + $10,000 capped SALT deduction from $5,643 property tax and $8...\"", + "2026: tax year label", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "13,881.41: engine liability.salt_deduction = 13881.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "147,187: model federal_explanation: \"...0 state income tax). With a $1 QBI deduction on qualified REIT income, taxable income is $147,187, resulting in federal income tax before credits of $...\"", + "2026: tax year label", + "27,923: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 147,187 = 27,922.88 (value 27922.8800, tolerance 0.5)", + "127: computed/cited: 28,050 - 27,922.88 = 127.12 (value 127.1200, tolerance 0.5)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|glm-5.3|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for putting Massachusetts income tax 'at $8,388.70 instead of $8,484.41', the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26916.66, + "explanation": "Single filer, no dependents. AGI = $174,094 (wages $175,002 + taxable interest $56 + non-qualified dividends $110 + REIT income $6 - $1,080 short-term capital loss, fully deductible since it is under the $3,000 limit). Itemized deductions = $30,931.70 (mortgage interest $16,900 on a $250,370 balance + SALT $14,031.70 = $5,643 real estate taxes + $8,388.70 MA income tax, below the $40,400 2026 SALT cap; medical expenses of $10,639 fall under the 7.5%-of-AGI floor), which exceeds the $16,100 standard deduction. After the $1.20 QBI deduction (20% of $6 REIT/PTP income), taxable income = $143,161.10. 2026 single brackets give $1,240 + $4,560 + $12,166 + 24% of $37,461.10 = $26,916.66. No nonrefundable credits (no children, no CDCC/CTC, no education credits). value = 26916.66" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=glm-5.3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8388.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 5% flat tax. MA income = wages $175,002 + interest $56 + non-qualified dividends $110 + REIT income $6 = $175,174; the $1,080 short-term capital loss cannot offset other MA income (carried forward). Subtract the $4,400 single personal exemption and the $3,000 rent deduction (50% of $44,400 rent capped at $3,000) for taxable income of $167,774 x 5% = $8,388.70; no nonrefundable MA credits apply. value = 8388.70" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "8,388.70: model federal_explanation: \"...ge interest $16,900 on a $250,370 balance + SALT $14,031.70 = $5,643 real estate taxes + $8,388.70 MA income tax, below the $40,400 2026 SALT cap; med...\"", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...,094 (wages $175,002 + taxable interest $56 + non-qualified dividends $110 + REIT income $6 - $1,080 short-term capital loss, fully deductible since i...\"", + "143,161.10: model federal_explanation: \"...d deduction. After the $1.20 QBI deduction (20% of $6 REIT/PTP income), taxable income = $143,161.10. 2026 single brackets give $1,240 + $4,560 + $12,...\"", + "26,956.66: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 143,161.10 (value 26956.6640, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,916.66: model federal_explanation: \"...= $143,161.10. 2026 single brackets give $1,240 + $4,560 + $12,166 + 24% of $37,461.10 = $26,916.66. No nonrefundable credits (no children, no CDCC/CT...\"", + "40: computed/cited: 26,956.66 - 26,916.66 (value 40.0040, tolerance 0.006) | also household input hours_worked_last_week = 40.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model raw_response: \"... = 8388.70\\\"}, \\\"state_refundable_credits\\\": {\\\"value\\\": 0, \\\"explanation\\\": \\\"MA EITC is 40% of the federal EITC, which is $0 at this income; the sen...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.4-mini|annotation", + "problem": "Said it cut '$4,127 of deductible Massachusetts income and property tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's deductible tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-mini, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 22450.0, + "explanation": "Head has one tax unit with $175,002 of wages plus small investment income, itemizes mortgage interest and SALT but the SALT deduction is capped at $10,000. After the standard deduction/itemized comparison and ordinary income tax brackets, the nonrefundable federal credits are effectively zero in this childless household, so tax before refundable credits is the computed income tax liability. value = 22450" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-mini, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 6440.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts taxes wage and investment income with its flat individual income tax; using the household's taxable income after deductions and no applicable state credits, the estimated state income tax before refundable credits is $6,440. value = 6440" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10,000: computed/cited: model 'SALT deduction is capped at $10,000' (value 10000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...vestment income, itemizes mortgage interest and SALT but the SALT deduction is capped at $10,000. After the standard deduction/itemized comparison and...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model raw_response: \"...plus 1.45% Medicare on all wages; wages of $175,002 are below the Social Security cap for 2026 in this estimate, and no Additional Medicare Tax applie...\"", + "40,400: engine 2026 SALT cap (salt_cap diagnostic, /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "4,127.41: computed/cited: 14,127.41 - 10,000 (value 4127.4062, tolerance 0.006)", + "14,127.41: engine reference.salt_deduction = 14127.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "147,187: computed/cited: 174,088.12 - 26,900 - 1.24 = 147,186.88 (value 147186.8805, tolerance 0.5)", + "2026: tax year label | also model raw_response: \"...plus 1.45% Medicare on all wages; wages of $175,002 are below the Social Security cap for 2026 in this estimate, and no Additional Medicare Tax applie...\"", + "27,923: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 147,186.88 = 27,922.85 (value 27922.8512, tolerance 0.5)", + "22,450: model federal_explanation: \"...household, so tax before refundable credits is the computed income tax liability. value = 22450...\"", + "5,500: computed/cited: 27,922.85 - 22,450 = 5,472.85 (value 5472.8500, tolerance 50)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.4-nano|annotation", + "problem": "Presented the reference's $31,027 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, as the household's figure.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-nano, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 41495.0, + "explanation": "Estimated 2026 federal income tax liability after applying applicable nonrefundable credits (none assumed to fully offset the calculated tax base given the income level) and before refundable credits, using the household’s taxable income from wages plus dividend/interest/capital gains and subtracting standard deduction and itemized deductions (mortgage interest and property taxes), yielding a net nonrefundable tax of 41495. value = 41495" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.4-nano, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 13951.0, + "explanation": "Estimated MA personal income tax after nonrefundable credits (none assumed to fully offset the liability) and before refundable credits, based on MA taxable income derived from wages and investment income net of standard deduction/itemized deductions, giving 13951. value = 13951" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "24%: rate", + "41,495: model federal_explanation: \"...ed deductions (mortgage interest and property taxes), yielding a net nonrefundable tax of 41495. value = 41495...\"", + "34,379: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on full AGI 174,088.12 = 34,379.15 (value 34379.1500, tolerance 0.5)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Estimated 2026 federal income tax liability after applying applicable ...\"", + "174,088: computed/cited: engine AGI (value 174088.1250, tolerance 0.5) | also engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 174088.1250 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 174,088)", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "23,396: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 23396.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "201,775: engine 2026 single bracket threshold 4" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.5|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $31,027 of itemized deductions, which rests on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29417.08, + "explanation": "Single filer AGI is about $174,094 after interest/dividends and the short-term capital loss; using itemized deductions of about $30,933 plus an estimated 2026 personal exemption and no nonrefundable credits gives tax under the single rate schedule of value = 29417.08" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8230.1, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 5% wage income is $175,002 less the $2,000 Social Security/Medicare deduction, $4,000 rent deduction, and $4,400 personal exemption, giving $164,602 taxed at 5%; the $1,080 short-term capital loss offsets the $166 interest/dividend income, and no nonrefundable credits apply; value = 8230.1" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "30,933: model federal_explanation: \"...r interest/dividends and the short-term capital loss; using itemized deductions of about $30,933 plus an estimated 2026 personal exemption and no nonr...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...the short-term capital loss; using itemized deductions of about $30,933 plus an estimated 2026 personal exemption and no nonrefundable credits gives t...\"", + "0: computed/cited: zero exemption (value 0.0000, tolerance 0) | also $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model raw_response: \"...the single rate schedule of value = 29417.08\\\"},\\\"federal_refundable_credits\\\":{\\\"value\\\":0,\\\"explanation\\\":\\\"With no qualifying children or other lis...\"", + "29,417: computed/cited: model federal prediction 29,417.08 (value 29417.0800, tolerance 0.5) | also model federal_explanation: \"...xemption and no nonrefundable credits gives tax under the single rate schedule of value = 29417.08...\"", + "26,932: computed/cited: engine reference (value 26932.2734, tolerance 0.5) | also engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) (rounded to 26,932)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.6-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating Massachusetts income tax 'about $250 below the $8,484.41 in the SALT deduction': its own Massachusetts answer is $8,238.70, and its answer is within $1 of the corrected-liability value.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26992.59, + "explanation": "Single-filer ordinary income includes wages, interest, nonqualified dividends, REIT/PTP income, and the short-term capital loss; itemized mortgage interest plus deductible Massachusetts income and real-estate taxes exceed the standard deduction, producing estimated 2026 federal tax with no nonrefundable credits, value = 26992.59" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8238.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts tax is estimated at 5% on taxable Part B income after the allowable Social Security/Medicare deduction, rent deduction, and single personal exemption; the net short-term capital loss generates no positive short-term-gain tax, value = 8238.7" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...achusetts income and real-estate taxes exceed the standard deduction, producing estimated 2026 federal tax with no nonrefundable credits, value = 2699...\"", + "8,238.70: model state_explanation: \"...ption; the net short-term capital loss generates no positive short-term-gain tax, value = 8238.7...\"", + "26,992.59: computed/cited: model federal prediction (value 26992.5900, tolerance 0.001) | also model federal_explanation: \"...rd deduction, producing estimated 2026 federal tax with no nonrefundable credits, value = 26992.59...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,232.90: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 8232.9004 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,992.64: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26992.6367 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "5: computed/cited: 26,992.64 - 26,992.59 = 0.05 (5 cents) (value 4.6719, tolerance 0.6) | also model state_explanation: \"...Massachusetts tax is estimated at 5% on taxable Part B income after the allowable Social Secur...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-5.6-terra|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'understated deductible Massachusetts income tax by about $141 relative to the $8,484.41', the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-terra, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26966.21, + "explanation": "Single filer itemizes mortgage interest and deductible Massachusetts/property taxes; taxable income falls in the 24 percent bracket and no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 26966.21" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-5.6-terra, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8338.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 5 percent income tax applies after the single personal exemption and maximum renter deduction; no state nonrefundable credits apply. value = 8338.7" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "24%: rate", + "2026: tax year label", + "8,338.70: model state_explanation: \"...nal exemption and maximum renter deduction; no state nonrefundable credits apply. value = 8338.7...\"", + "100.29: computed/cited: 8,338.70 - 8,238.41 (value 100.2938, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "145.71: computed/cited: 8,484.41 - 8,338.70 (value 145.7062, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,966.21: model federal_explanation: \"...axable income falls in the 24 percent bracket and no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 26966.21...\"", + "33.94: computed/cited: 26,966.21 - 26,932.27 (value 33.9366, tolerance 0.006)", + "25.10: computed/cited: 26,991.31 - 26,966.21 (value 25.1025, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-astra|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for 'about $5,086 of extra Massachusetts subtractions' against the engine's $8,484.41: its $8,230.10 is its own Massachusetts liability, and its answer is within $1 of the corrected-liability value.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-astra, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26993.29, + "explanation": "Estimated single-filer AGI is $174088. Itemized deductions are $30773.10 for mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and state income tax; the REIT/PTP deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits, value = 26993.29" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-astra, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8230.1, + "explanation": "Massachusetts capital losses offset dividend income, and the bank-interest exemption covers $56 of interest. Wages less the $4400 personal exemption, $2000 payroll-tax deduction, and $4000 rental deduction leave $164602 taxed at 5%; value = 8230.1" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "30,773.10: model federal_explanation: \"...Estimated single-filer AGI is $174088. Itemized deductions are $30773.10 for mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and state...\"", + "8,230.10: computed/cited: 30,773.10 - 16,900 - 5,643 (value 8230.1000, tolerance 0.006) | also model state_explanation: \"...2000 payroll-tax deduction, and $4000 rental deduction leave $164602 taxed at 5%; value = 8230.1...\"", + "8.31: computed/cited: 8,238.41 - 8,230.10 (value 8.3062, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "169,688.12: computed/cited: AGI - 4,400 (value 169688.1250, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,232.90: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 8232.9004 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,992.64: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26992.6367 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,993.29: model federal_explanation: \"...IT/PTP deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits, value = 26993.29...\"", + "1: computed/cited: 26,993.29 - 26,992.64 = 0.65 (value 0.6533, tolerance 1.0) | also household input has_esi = True (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...or mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and state income tax; the REIT/PTP deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits,...\"", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-luna|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $143,059.47 'correct' and faulted its Massachusetts tax against the $8,484.41 withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-luna, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26980.0, + "explanation": "Estimated federal taxable income is about $143,260 after itemized mortgage interest, property and state income taxes, and the small REIT QBI deduction; applying 2026 single-filer brackets and no nonrefundable credits gives $26,980. value = 26980" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-luna, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8284.0, + "explanation": "Estimated Massachusetts income tax at 5% after the single personal exemption and the allowable rent deduction is approximately $8,284; no nonrefundable credit is supported by the facts. value = 8284" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "143,260: computed/cited: AGI - (16,900 + 5,643 + 8,284) - 1.24 = 143,259.88; model 'about $143,260' (value 143259.8805, tolerance 0.5) | also model federal_explanation: \"...Estimated federal taxable income is about $143,260 after itemized mortgage interest, property and state...\"", + "8,284: model state_explanation: \"...5% after the single personal exemption and the allowable rent deduction is approximately $8,284; no nonrefundable credit is supported by the facts. va...\"", + "45.59: computed/cited: 8,284 - 8,238.41 (value 45.5938, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,980: model federal_explanation: \"...IT QBI deduction; applying 2026 single-filer brackets and no nonrefundable credits gives $26,980. value = 26980...\"", + "47.73: computed/cited: 26,980 - 26,932.27 (value 47.7266, tolerance 0.006)", + "11.31: computed/cited: 26,991.31 - 26,980 (value 11.3125, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for deducting '$8,330.10 of Massachusetts income tax instead of the $8,484.41', the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26969.288, + "explanation": "Federal AGI is 174088 after the 1080 capital loss; deducting 16900 mortgage interest, 5643 property tax, 8330.1 state income tax, and 1.2 qualified REIT deduction leaves 143213.7 taxable income. Applying 2026 single-filer brackets gives 26969.288, with no applicable nonrefundable credits; value = 26969.288" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8330.1, + "explanation": "The 1080 short-term capital loss offsets the 166 of interest and dividends for Massachusetts purposes; 5% tax on 175002 of wages less the 4400 personal exemption and 4000 rent deduction is 8330.1; value = 8330.1" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "8,330.10: model federal_explanation: \"...174088 after the 1080 capital loss; deducting 16900 mortgage interest, 5643 property tax, 8330.1 state income tax, and 1.2 qualified REIT deduction le...\"", + "91.69: computed/cited: 8,330.10 - 8,238.41 (value 91.6938, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "154.31: computed/cited: 8,484.41 - 8,330.10 (value 154.3062, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,213.70: model federal_explanation: \"...rest, 5643 property tax, 8330.1 state income tax, and 1.2 qualified REIT deduction leaves 143213.7 taxable income. Applying 2026 single-filer brackets...\"", + "26,969.29: computed/cited: model federal prediction 26,969.288 (value 26969.2880, tolerance 0.006) | also model federal_explanation: \"... REIT deduction leaves 143213.7 taxable income. Applying 2026 single-filer brackets gives 26969.288, with no applicable nonrefundable credits; value =...\"", + "143,305.47: engine liability.taxable_income = 143305.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|gpt-6.1-sol|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'understated SALT by $254.31' against the engine's $8,484.41: its $8,230.10 is its own Massachusetts liability, and its answer is within $1 of the corrected-liability value.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6.1-sol, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26993.29, + "explanation": "Single-filer AGI is $174,088. Itemized deductions are $30,773.10 for mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and state income tax; the REIT/PTP deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits, gives value = 26993.29" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=gpt-6.1-sol, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8230.1, + "explanation": "Massachusetts taxable wage income is $164,602 after the $4,400 personal exemption, $2,000 payroll-tax deduction, and $4,000 rent deduction. Bank interest is exempt and capital losses absorb taxable dividends. The 5% tax applies without nonrefundable credits; value = 8230.1" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "30,773.10: model federal_explanation: \"...Single-filer AGI is $174,088. Itemized deductions are $30,773.10 for mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and stat...\"", + "8,230.10: computed/cited: 30,773.10 - 16,900 - 5,643 (value 8230.1000, tolerance 0.006) | also model state_explanation: \"...osses absorb taxable dividends. The 5% tax applies without nonrefundable credits; value = 8230.1...\"", + "8.31: computed/cited: 8,238.41 - 8,230.10 (value 8.3062, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "169,688.12: computed/cited: AGI - 4,400 (value 169688.1250, tolerance 0.006)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,313.70: computed/cited: model AGI 174,088 - itemized 30,773.10 - REIT deduction 1.20 (value 143313.7000, tolerance 0.006)", + "8,232.90: engine corrected_liability.state_withheld_income_tax = 8232.9004 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,992.64: engine corrected_liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26992.6367 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,993.29: model federal_explanation: \"... deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits, gives value = 26993.29...\"", + "1: computed/cited: 0.65 (value 0.6533, tolerance 1.0) | also household input has_esi = True (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...or mortgage interest, real estate taxes, and state income tax; the REIT/PTP deduction is $1.20. Applying 2026 brackets, with no nonrefundable credits,...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.3|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left 'the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT, which is deductible', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 28950.0, + "explanation": "Taxable income after itemized deductions is about $151,500; 2026 24% bracket applies to most of it after standard 10/12% portions. value = 28950" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8705.0, + "explanation": "MA flat tax rate of 5% on taxable income near $174,094. value = 8705" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "151,500: computed/cited: model explanation 'about $151,500' (value 151500.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...Taxable income after itemized deductions is about $151,500; 2026 24% bracket applies to most of it after standa...\"", + "8,440: computed/cited: 151,500 - 143,059.47 = 8,440.53 (value 8440.5312, tolerance 5)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "28,950: model federal_explanation: \"... $151,500; 2026 24% bracket applies to most of it after standard 10/12% portions. value = 28950...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.5|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $31,027, which rests on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.5, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29119.0, + "explanation": "AGI is 174094 from wages plus interest, nonqualified dividends, REIT/PTP income and short-term capital loss. Under 2026 current-law TCJA sunset, personal exemption is approx 5447 and itemized deductions of mortgage interest 16900 plus uncapped SALT (property tax 5643 + MA tax 8396) total 30939 exceed the restored standard deduction. Taxable income is 137708. Applying restored 2017-style brackets inflation-adjusted to approx 12542/51043/123606 yields tax of 1254 + 5775 + 18141 + 3949 with no nonrefundable credits. value = 29119" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.5, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8396.0, + "explanation": "MA AGI equals 174094. Subtract personal exemption 4400 and fully deductible unreimbursed employee expenses 1782 to reach MA taxable income 167912. Part-A short-term loss produces no 8.5% tax and fully offsets; remaining income taxed at 5% flat rate yields 8396 after no nonrefundable credits. value = 8396" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "10/15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...plus interest, nonqualified dividends, REIT/PTP income and short-term capital loss. Under 2026 current-law TCJA sunset, personal exemption is approx 5...\"", + "5,447: model federal_explanation: \"...short-term capital loss. Under 2026 current-law TCJA sunset, personal exemption is approx 5447 and itemized deductions of mortgage interest 16900 plus...\"", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model raw_response: \"...with no nonrefundable credits. value = 29119\\\"},\\\"federal_refundable_credits\\\":{\\\"value\\\":0,\\\"explanation\\\":\\\"No qualifying children so no CTC/ACTC; i...\"", + "30,939: model federal_explanation: \"...ons of mortgage interest 16900 plus uncapped SALT (property tax 5643 + MA tax 8396) total 30939 exceed the restored standard deduction. Taxable income...\"", + "8,396: model federal_explanation: \"...ized deductions of mortgage interest 16900 plus uncapped SALT (property tax 5643 + MA tax 8396) total 30939 exceed the restored standard deduction. Ta...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.6|annotation", + "problem": "Called its itemized deductions 'nearly correct' against the reference, which rests on the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.6, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29479.0, + "explanation": "Single 2026 return after TCJA sunset. AGI is 175002 + 56 + 110 + 6 - 1080 = 174094. Itemized deductions of 16900 mortgage interest plus uncapped SALT of 5643 property tax and 8389 Massachusetts tax equal 30932, and the restored personal exemption is 5300, so taxable income is 137862. Regular tax is 1212.50 + 5576.25 + 17562.50 + 5127.36 under the restored 10/15/25/28 percent brackets. No nonrefundable credits apply and AMT does not add tax. value = 29479" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.6, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8389.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 5 percent Part A/B tax on a one-person return. MA income is 175002 + 56 + 110 + 6 minus the 1000 MA capital-loss limit, or 174174. Subtract the 4400 personal exemption and the 2000 maximum FICA deduction to get taxable income 167774. Tax is 0.05 * 167774 = 8388.70, rounded to 8389. No nonrefundable MA credits apply. value = 8389" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5,300: model federal_explanation: \"...operty tax and 8389 Massachusetts tax equal 30932, and the restored personal exemption is 5300, so taxable income is 137862. Regular tax is 1212.50 + ...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single 2026 return after TCJA sunset. AGI is 175002 + 56 + 110 + 6 ...\"", + "30,932: model federal_explanation: \"...ortgage interest plus uncapped SALT of 5643 property tax and 8389 Massachusetts tax equal 30932, and the restored personal exemption is 5300, so taxab...\"", + "8,389: model federal_explanation: \"...temized deductions of 16900 mortgage interest plus uncapped SALT of 5643 property tax and 8389 Massachusetts tax equal 30932, and the restored persona...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,479: model federal_explanation: \".../25/28 percent brackets. No nonrefundable credits apply and AMT does not add tax. value = 29479...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-4.7|annotation", + "problem": "Called the reference's $31,027.41, which rests on the withholding estimate, 'correct'.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.7, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 29389.0, + "explanation": "2026 current-law post-TCJA sunset for a single filer. AGI is $174,094 (wages $175,002 + interest $56 + nonqualified dividends $110 + REIT/PTP $6 − $1,080 capital loss). Itemized deductions are $30,827.70 (mortgage interest $16,900 + MA income tax $8,284.70 + real estate taxes $5,643; SALT cap expired; medical and employee expenses below the floors). Personal exemption $5,350 leaves taxable income $137,916.30, taxed in the restored 10/15/25/28% brackets at $29,389. No nonrefundable credits. value = 29389" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-4.7, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8284.7, + "explanation": "Massachusetts 5% tax on $165,694: income of $174,094 minus the $4,400 single exemption and $4,000 rental deduction. Income is below the millionaire surtax threshold, and no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 8284.7" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "10/15/25/28%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "5,350: model federal_explanation: \"...3; SALT cap expired; medical and employee expenses below the floors). Personal exemption $5,350 leaves taxable income $137,916.30, taxed in the restor...\"", + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model raw_response: \"...389. No nonrefundable credits. value = 29389\\\"},\\\"federal_refundable_credits\\\":{\\\"value\\\":0,\\\"explanation\\\":\\\"Wages far exceed EITC limits, there are ...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...2026 current-law post-TCJA sunset for a single filer. AGI is...\"", + "30,827.70: model federal_explanation: \"...onqualified dividends $110 + REIT/PTP $6 − $1,080 capital loss). Itemized deductions are $30,827.70 (mortgage interest $16,900 + MA income tax $8,284....\"", + "8,284.70: model federal_explanation: \"...tal loss). Itemized deductions are $30,827.70 (mortgage interest $16,900 + MA income tax $8,284.70 + real estate taxes $5,643; SALT cap expired; medic...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "29,389: model federal_explanation: \"...$5,350 leaves taxable income $137,916.30, taxed in the restored 10/15/25/28% brackets at $29,389. No nonrefundable credits. value = 29389...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|grok-build-0.1|annotation", + "problem": "Said it omitted 'the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax from SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-build-0.1, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 33033.0, + "explanation": "AGI of 174094 minus itemized deductions of 22543 (16900 mortgage interest + 5643 real estate taxes) yields taxable income 151551. Applied 2026 pre-TCJA reverted brackets for single filer: 10% up to 12491, 15% to 50834, 25% to 123100, 28% thereafter, resulting in tax of 33033. No nonrefundable credits apply. value = 33033" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=grok-build-0.1, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8485.0, + "explanation": "MA AGI approximately 174094 minus 4400 personal exemption equals 169694, taxed at flat 5% rate yielding 8485 (rounded). No adjustments for itemized as MA does not allow them. value = 8485" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "10/12/22/24%: rate schedule label (engine 2026 single rates 10/12/22/24%; pre-TCJA 15/25/28% as the model used)", + "10%: rate", + "15%: rate", + "25%: rate", + "28%: rate", + "12,491: computed/cited: model explanation '10% up to 12491' (value 12491.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...axable income 151551. Applied 2026 pre-TCJA reverted brackets for single filer: 10% up to 12491, 15% to 50834, 25% to 123100, 28% thereafter, resultin...\"", + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...AGI of 174094 minus itemized deductions of 22543 (16900 mortgage interest + 5643 real estate taxes) yie...\"", + "151,551: model federal_explanation: \"...uctions of 22543 (16900 mortgage interest + 5643 real estate taxes) yields taxable income 151551. Applied 2026 pre-TCJA reverted brackets for single f...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|inkling|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted it for estimating Massachusetts income tax 'at about $8,335 instead of $8,484.41', the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=inkling, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 27056.0, + "explanation": "AGI is about $174,094 (wages $175,002 + $110 dividends + $6 REIT/PTP + $56 interest - $1,080 capital loss). The filer itemizes: mortgage interest $16,900 plus SALT of about $13,978 (state tax ~$8,335 + real-estate taxes $5,643), exceeding the $16,100 standard deduction. Taxable income after the $1.20 QBI deduction on $6 of qualified REIT/PTP income is about $143,215, taxed at 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) yielding roughly $27,056; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 27056" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=inkling, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8335.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts taxes about 5% of taxable income. From federal AGI ~$174,094 subtract rent deduction (~$3,000) and personal exemption (~$4,400) giving taxable income of ~$166,694; tax ≈ $8,335 with no nonrefundable credits used. value = 8335" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "24%: rate", + "8,335: model federal_explanation: \"...s). The filer itemizes: mortgage interest $16,900 plus SALT of about $13,978 (state tax ~$8,335 + real-estate taxes $5,643), exceeding the $16,100 sta...\"", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,215: model federal_explanation: \"...Taxable income after the $1.20 QBI deduction on $6 of qualified REIT/PTP income is about $143,215, taxed at 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) yieldi...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...er the $1.20 QBI deduction on $6 of qualified REIT/PTP income is about $143,215, taxed at 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) yielding roughly $27,056...\"", + "26,970: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 143,215 = 26,969.60 (value 26969.6000, tolerance 0.5)", + "86: computed/cited: 27,056 - 26,969.60 = 86.40 (value 86.4000, tolerance 0.5)", + "27,056: model federal_explanation: \"... income is about $143,215, taxed at 2026 single brackets (10/12/22/24%) yielding roughly $27,056; no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 27056...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|kimi-k3|annotation", + "problem": "Said it left 'the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax out of SALT', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=kimi-k3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 28968.51, + "explanation": "Federal AGI is 174,088.00: 175,002 wages plus 56 interest and 110 nonqualified dividends, less the 1,080 short-term capital loss. Itemized deductions are 22,543 from 16,900 mortgage interest and 5,643 real-estate taxes; after the 1.20 REIT/PTP QBI deduction, taxable income is 151,543.80, producing 28,968.51 under the 2026 single brackets with no applicable nonrefundable credits. value = 28968.51" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=kimi-k3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8384.4, + "explanation": "Massachusetts taxable income is 167,688: the 174,088 income base less the capped 2,000 employee payroll-tax deduction and 4,400 single personal exemption, with no separate rent expense input. The 5% Massachusetts rate produces 8,384.40, and no nonrefundable credits apply. value = 8384.4" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "16,900: engine reference.interest_deduction = 16900.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"...ed dividends, less the 1,080 short-term capital loss. Itemized deductions are 22,543 from 16,900 mortgage interest and 5,643 real-estate taxes; after ...\"", + "5,643: household input real_estate_taxes = 5643.0 (scenarios.csv) | also model federal_explanation: \"...short-term capital loss. Itemized deductions are 22,543 from 16,900 mortgage interest and 5,643 real-estate taxes; after the 1.20 REIT/PTP QBI deducti...\"", + "151,543.80: model federal_explanation: \"...est and 5,643 real-estate taxes; after the 1.20 REIT/PTP QBI deduction, taxable income is 151,543.80, producing 28,968.51 under the 2026 single bracke...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"... 1.20 REIT/PTP QBI deduction, taxable income is 151,543.80, producing 28,968.51 under the 2026 single brackets with no applicable nonrefundable credit...\"", + "28,968.51: model federal_explanation: \"...ate taxes; after the 1.20 REIT/PTP QBI deduction, taxable income is 151,543.80, producing 28,968.51 under the 2026 single brackets with no applicable ...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "853: engine zero reading state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (general sales tax: state 853.0 + local 0.00) = 853.0000 (/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json)", + "28,763.81: engine zero.income_tax_main_rates = 28763.8105 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|minimax-m3|annotation", + "problem": "Stated that the household 'owes $26,932.27', the reference value that rests on the withholding estimate.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=minimax-m3, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "value=0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=minimax-m3, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 0.0, + "explanation": "value=0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "0: $0 personal exemption: the engine deducts none; taxable_income_deductions equals itemized + QBI (+ senior) (081: 31,028.65 = 31,027.41 + 1.24; 022: 34,596.57 = 29,735.52 + 910 + 3,951.05; /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json) | also model federal_explanation: \"...value=0...\"", + "174,088.12: computed/cited: engine AGI (value 174088.1250, tolerance 0.006) | also engine reference.adjusted_gross_income = 174088.1250 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "26,932.27: engine reference.income_tax_main_rates = 26932.2734 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "143,059.47: engine reference.taxable_income = 143059.4688 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|ox-alpha|annotation", + "problem": "Faulted its $8,538 only against the $8,484.41 'the engine's SALT deduction uses', without saying that is the withholding estimate or giving the engine's $8,238.41 liability.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=ox-alpha, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 26921.0, + "explanation": "Single filer, 2026. AGI = 175,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 nonqualified dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 ST cap loss = 174,094. Itemized deductions beat the $16,100 standard deduction: 16,900 mortgage interest + SALT (8,538 MA income tax + 5,643 property taxes, well under the ~$40,400 cap) = 31,081. Taxable income ≈ 143,012 after the tiny QBI deduction (20% x $6 REIT dividends). 2026 single brackets: 10% x 12,400 + 12% x 38,000 + 22% x 55,300 + 24% x 37,312 ≈ 26,921. No nonrefundable credits apply (no children/CDCC). value = 26921" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=ox-alpha, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8538.0, + "explanation": "MA Part B: (175,002 wages - 4,400 single personal exemption) x 5% = 8,530.10. Part A: (56 interest + 110 nonqualified dividends) x 5% = 8.30; the 1,080 short-term capital loss produces no current MA tax (carryover only). Income is far above 'no tax status'/limited-income credit thresholds and there are no other credits (no dependents, circuit breaker requires 65+). Total ≈ 8,538.40. value = 8538" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "5%: rate", + "5%: rate", + "5%: rate", + "8,538: model federal_explanation: \"...Itemized deductions beat the $16,100 standard deduction: 16,900 mortgage interest + SALT (8,538 MA income tax + 5,643 property taxes, well under the ~...\"", + "4,400: computed/cited: model state explanation '4,400 single personal exemption'; README mechanism (value 4400.0000, tolerance 0) | also model state_explanation: \"...MA Part B: (175,002 wages - 4,400 single personal exemption) x 5% = 8,530.10. Part A: (5...\"", + "1,080: model federal_explanation: \"...iler, 2026. AGI = 175,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 nonqualified dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 ST cap loss = 174,094. Itemized deductions beat the $1...\"", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,238.41: engine reference.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 8238.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "53.59: computed/cited: 8,538 - 8,484.41 (value 53.5938, tolerance 0.006)", + "6: computed/cited: household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income (value 6.2225, tolerance 0.5) | also household input qualified_reit_and_ptp_income = 6.2224602699279785 (scenarios.csv), rounded | also model federal_explanation: \"...Single filer, 2026. AGI = 175,002 wages + 56 interest + 110 nonqualified dividends + 6 REIT/PTP - 1,080 ST cap loss = 174,094. Itemized deduction...\"", + "47: computed/cited: 143,059.47 - 143,012 = 47.47 (value 47.4688, tolerance 0.5)", + "143,012: model federal_explanation: \"...ncome tax + 5,643 property taxes, well under the ~$40,400 cap) = 31,081. Taxable income ≈ 143,012 after the tiny QBI deduction (20% x $6 REIT dividend...\"", + "26,921: model federal_explanation: \"...dends). 2026 single brackets: 10% x 12,400 + 12% x 38,000 + 22% x 55,300 + 24% x 37,312 ≈ 26,921. No nonrefundable credits apply (no children/CDCC). v...\"", + "11.27: computed/cited: 26,932.27 - 26,921 (value 11.2734, tolerance 0.006)", + "70.31: computed/cited: 26,991.31 - 26,921 (value 70.3125, tolerance 0.006)", + "26,991.31: engine liability.income_tax_main_rates = 26991.3125 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|qwen-3.7-max|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax' and called $31,027 the 'correct itemized total', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen-3.7-max, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 39827.88, + "explanation": "Gross income includes wages ($175,002), taxable interest ($56), non-qualified dividends ($110), qualified REIT/PTP income ($6), and short-term capital gains ($-1,080), totaling $174,094. No above-the-line deductions apply. Standard deduction ($15,000) is used since itemized deductions (mortgage interest $16,900 + real estate taxes $5,643 = $22,543) are lower than the standard deduction for single filers in 2026. Taxable income is $174,094 - $15,000 = $159,094. Tax computed using 2026 single brackets: 10% on first $12,150 = $1,215; 12% on $12,151-$46,475 = $4,119; 22% on $46,476-$100,525 = $11,891; 24% on $100,526-$159,094 = $14,056.32. Total tax before credits = $31,281.32. The qualified REIT/PTP deduction of 20% × $6 = $1.20 is applied. No nonrefundable credits apply as there are no qualifying dependents. Final federal income tax before refundable credits = $39827.88. value = 39827.88" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen-3.7-max, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 8484.7, + "explanation": "MA has a flat 5% income tax rate (for 2026, assuming it remains at 5%). Federal AGI: wages $175,002 + taxable interest $56 + non-qualified dividends $110 + short-term capital gains (-$1,080) + qualified REIT/PTP $6 = $174,094. MA does not allow deductions for mortgage interest, real estate taxes, employee business expenses, or health insurance premiums for regular income. MA taxable income = $174,094. MA tax before credits = $174,094 * 5% = $8,704.70. However, MA taxes short-term capital gains at 5% (same as regular rate for 2026). MA also taxes long-term capital gains at 5%. The short-term capital loss of -$1,080 reduces the tax base. Recalculating: MA gross income = $175,002 + $56 + $110 - $1,080 + $6 = $174,094. MA tax = $174,094 * 0.05 = $8,704.70. Wait - MA has a 5% flat rate on most income but short-term capital gains are taxed at 5% as well (they changed from 12% to 5% starting in 2023 for tax years beginning after 2022). So MA tax = $174,094 * 0.05 = $8,704.70. But I need to account for MA personal exemption. For 2026, MA personal exemption is approximately $4,400 for a single filer (indexed). Taxable income after exemption = $174,094 - $4,400 = $169,694. Tax = $169,694 * 0.05 = $8,484.70. Actually, for 2024 the exemption was $4,400. For 2026 with inflation, estimate ~$4,600. $174,094 - $4,600 = $169,494. $169,494 * 0.05 = $8,474.70. Let me use $8,484.70 with the $4,400 exemption as a reasonable estimate: $169,694 * 0.05 = $8,484.70. Actually, let me reconsider - MA also has a 4% surtax on income over $1 million (Fair Share Amendment, effective 2023). Income here is well under $1 million, so no surtax. Using $4,400 exemption: value = 8484.70" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...s used since itemized deductions (mortgage interest $16,900 + real estate taxes $5,643 = $22,543) are lower than the standard deduction for single fil...\"", + "15,000: computed/cited: model explanation 'Standard deduction ($15,000)' (value 15000.0000, tolerance 0) | also model federal_explanation: \"...ns ($-1,080), totaling $174,094. No above-the-line deductions apply. Standard deduction ($15,000) is used since itemized deductions (mortgage interest...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "23,396: engine zero.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 23396.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "16,100: engine 2026 single standard deduction | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 16100.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...estate taxes $5,643 = $22,543) are lower than the standard deduction for single filers in 2026. Taxable income is $174,094 - $15,000 = $159,094. Tax c...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...estate taxes $5,643 = $22,543) are lower than the standard deduction for single filers in 2026. Taxable income is $174,094 - $15,000 = $159,094. Tax c...\"", + "39,827.88: model federal_explanation: \"...there are no qualifying dependents. Final federal income tax before refundable credits = $39827.88. value = 39827.88...\"", + "31,281.32: model federal_explanation: \"...76-$100,525 = $11,891; 24% on $100,526-$159,094 = $14,056.32. Total tax before credits = $31,281.32. The qualified REIT/PTP deduction of 20% × $6 = $1...\"" + ] + }, + { + "key": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv|scenario_081|federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits|qwen3.8-max|annotation", + "problem": "Said it 'omitted the $8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax', presenting the withholding estimate as the household's tax.", + "evidence": [ + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen3.8-max, variable=federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 30041.0, + "explanation": "With $175,002 in wages, the tax unit takes the standard deduction (itemized deductions of $22,543 from mortgage interest and real estate taxes are lower), yielding taxable income of $160,402. Applying the 2026 federal income tax brackets for a single filer produces a regular income tax liability of approximately $30,041 before refundable credits, with no nonrefundable credits available to reduce it. value = 30041.0" + }, + { + "source": "/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/predictions.csv.gz (model=qwen3.8-max, variable=state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits)", + "prediction": 7800.0, + "explanation": "Massachusetts imposes a flat income tax rate of 5.00% on taxable income. Applying this rate to the household's state taxable income produces a liability of approximately $7,800 before refundable credits. value = 7800.0" + }, + { + "source": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final; readings fed as state_withheld_income_tax, as in /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py); cross-checked with /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json and /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json", + "withholding_estimate_state_withheld_income_tax": 8484.41, + "engine_state_liability": 8238.41, + "corrected_liability": 8232.9, + "output": { + "reference": 26932.27, + "liability": 26991.31, + "corrected_liability": 26992.64, + "zero": 28763.81 + }, + "salt": { + "reference": 14127.41, + "liability": 13881.41, + "corrected_liability": 13875.9, + "zero": 6496.0 + }, + "itemized": { + "reference": 31027.41, + "liability": 30781.41, + "corrected_liability": 30775.9, + "zero": 23396.0 + }, + "taxable_income": { + "reference": 143059.47, + "liability": 143305.47, + "corrected_liability": 143310.98, + "zero": 150690.88 + } + } + ], + "checked_numbers": [ + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...ith $175,002 in wages, the tax unit takes the standard deduction (itemized deductions of $22,543 from mortgage interest and real estate taxes are lowe...\"", + "22,543: model federal_explanation: \"...ith $175,002 in wages, the tax unit takes the standard deduction (itemized deductions of $22,543 from mortgage interest and real estate taxes are lowe...\"", + "16,100: engine 2026 single standard deduction | also engine reference.standard_deduction = 16100.0000 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...erest and real estate taxes are lower), yielding taxable income of $160,402. Applying the 2026 federal income tax brackets for a single filer produces...\"", + "31,027.41: engine reference.itemized_taxable_income_deductions = 31027.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "8,484.41: engine reference.state_withheld_income_tax = 8484.4062 (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-rewrites/salt/engine_values.json)", + "160,402: model federal_explanation: \"...,543 from mortgage interest and real estate taxes are lower), yielding taxable income of $160,402. Applying the 2026 federal income tax brackets for a...\"", + "2026: tax year label | also model federal_explanation: \"...erest and real estate taxes are lower), yielding taxable income of $160,402. Applying the 2026 federal income tax brackets for a single filer produces...\"", + "31,094: computed/cited: 2026 single brackets on 160,402 = 31,094.48 (value 31094.4800, tolerance 0.5)", + "30,041: model federal_explanation: \"...tax brackets for a single filer produces a regular income tax liability of approximately $30,041 before refundable credits, with no nonrefundable cred...\"" + ] + } +] diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/spec.json b/docs/release_20261006/spec.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6cb38e67 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/spec.json @@ -0,0 +1,195 @@ +{ + "note": "Inputs of release dashboard-data-20261006, read by scripts/release_20261006.py. The release applies Max's 2026-10-05 rulings (cos d963, d974, d972, d831, and the Louisiana ruling on PolicyEngine/policybench#192) to release dashboard-data-20260930: eight outputs leave scoring for every model; the references, the predictions and every earlier exclusion's value stay as they were.", + "release_tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "base_tag": "dashboard-data-20260930", + "base_commit": "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2", + "base_sha256": "d1cae7456cf91ab6fa04644a4d5d570e359522386a7c52f9645d5923bfc11258", + "base_bytes": 126109700, + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "rulings": { + "d963": "exclude scenario_022, scenario_081 and scenario_114 federal income tax before refundable credits (state income tax withheld in SALT; PolicyEngine/policybench#191)", + "d974": "exclude scenario_114 Virginia income tax before refundable credits (Medicare Part B premium; PolicyEngine/policybench#193)", + "d972": "exclude scenario_032, scenario_043, scenario_081 and scenario_082 payroll_tax (optional employer pass-through of a state paid-leave premium; PolicyEngine/policybench#194); do not regenerate", + "d831": "date the model response window from the last answer (PolicyEngine/policybench#188)", + "louisiana": "keep scenario_051 and scenario_077 state income tax at the $12,835 deduction; ship wording-only case-note edits (PolicyEngine/policybench#192); hold the README documentation sentence under d994" + }, + "proposals": [ + { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json", + "outputs": [ + [ + "scenario_022", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + [ + "scenario_081", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + [ + "scenario_114", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ] + ] + }, + { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json", + "outputs": [ + [ + "scenario_114", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ] + ] + }, + { + "path": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_exclusions.json", + "outputs": [ + [ + "scenario_032", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_043", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_081", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_082", + "payroll_tax" + ] + ] + } + ], + "record_edits": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "unlisted_input", + "append": "; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json conditional_on_salt_decision[0].if_salt_record_adopted" + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "note", + "replace": "The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's Massachusetts paid family and medical leave contributions ($805.01) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Rev. Rul. 2025-4). With them the output is $26,739.07 under the withholding estimate and $26,798.11 under the liability.", + "with": "The output would also move if the employer deducted the employee share of the household's Massachusetts paid family and medical leave premium, which the law allows but does not require (this household's payroll tax output is excluded on that ground; reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll): policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves any such contributions out of SALT, though Rev. Rul. 2025-4 treats them as deductible state income taxes. With the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct ($805.01), the output is $26,739.07 under the withholding estimate and $26,798.11 under the liability.", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md, release step 11: the Massachusetts paid leave share is an optional employer pass-through" + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_078", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "note", + "append_from": [ + "reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json", + "already_excluded", + 0, + "note_to_append" + ], + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md, release step 6" + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "field": "note", + "append_from": [ + "reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json", + "already_excluded", + 1, + "note_to_append" + ], + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md, release step 6" + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "alternative_reading", + "replace": "counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution $805.01)", + "with": "counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution $805.01)", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md, 'Massachusetts, Acts 2026 c. 101': a literal reading of the act's s. 45 would let a large employer deduct up to 0.772% ($1,351.02) for 2026, while the Department's rates page kept the 0.46% maximum, so the record names the published rates (independent review of the release, 2026-10-08)" + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "field": "alternative_reading", + "replace": "which may deduct up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution from wages (s. 6(c))", + "with": "which may deduct part of the contribution from wages (s. 6(c)): under the Department of Family and Medical Leave's published 2026 rates, up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution, though Acts 2026 c. 101 ss. 25-26 and 45 can be read to swap those caps for 2026", + "source": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md, 'Massachusetts, Acts 2026 c. 101' (independent re-review of the release, 2026-10-08)" + } + ], + "rule": { + "old": "An output is excluded from scoring for every model when its reference depends on an engine input that the certified household data never carried and the prompt therefore never listed, and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way.", + "new": "An output is excluded from scoring for every model when its reference depends on an input or definition that the certified household data never carried and the prompt therefore never stated, and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way." + }, + "derivation_insert": { + "before": " On 2026-09-29 the references moved to policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "text": " On 2026-10-05 eight more outputs were excluded on review of release dashboard-data-20260930 (reference_audit/2026-10-05, reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b and reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll); their records are computed on policyengine-us 2.15.17, whose values are the references, and each sweep's baseline reproduced every scored reference." + }, + "adjudications": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 11,113.57; the alternative is 11,895.23. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of California withholding on federal AGI ($6,058.85), while read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($2,505.87). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 2,346.10; the alternative is 2,218.50. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Minnesota Paid Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($127.60); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 330.73; the alternative is 312.74. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Colorado FAMLI contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($17.99); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 26,932.27; the alternative is 26,991.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Massachusetts withholding on federal AGI ($8,484.41), while read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($8,238.41). Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05, scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 14,192.66; the alternative is 13,387.65. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; Massachusetts PFML contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a) and (c); 458 CMR 2.05(5)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct ($805.01); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 8,108.03; the alternative is 7,664.92. The prompt counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes; New York disability and Paid Family Leave contributions are the employer's, which may deduct the employee share from wages but need not (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1)), and policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts the largest share the employer may deduct ($443.11); read as the amount the law requires of the employee, $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of state payroll components (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll, program_classification.json)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 10,729.61; the alternative is 11,137.31. The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026; policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate of Virginia withholding on federal AGI ($5,367.30), while read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year the deduction takes the engine's liability ($3,514.15). The reference's medical deduction also counts a modeled Medicare Part B premium ($2,434.80) the prompt does not list; without it the output is 11,265.27. Found in the 2026-10-05 audits of the state income tax in SALT (reference_audit/2026-10-05) and of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reasoning": "The frozen reference is 3,514.15; the alternative is 3,654.15. The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment or Part B premium; policyengine-us 2.15.17 treats the 69-year-old head as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true) and adds the $2,434.80 standard Part B premium to medical expenses, which Virginia's itemized deductions carry from the federal ones; read with no premium paid, the output is the alternative. Found in the 2026-10-05 audit of the Part B premium (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b, scripts/sweep_part_b.py)." + } + ], + "judge_evidence": { + "fill_wave": { + "wave": "2026-09-29", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "pull_request": 182, + "committed_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "new_wave": { + "wave": "2026-10-05", + "release": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "adjudications_written_on": "2026-10-06" + } + }, + "snapshot_date": "2026-09-30", + "model_response_start": "2026-06-12" +} diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/HEAD.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/HEAD.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cd03ae89 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/HEAD.txt @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +9edf8bac72fd9f264d0543626e8feaca961324da diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/app-lint.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/app-lint.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0dc9472b --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/app-lint.txt @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +$ eslint . --max-warnings=0 diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/bun-tests.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/bun-tests.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..691dc5d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/bun-tests.txt @@ -0,0 +1,59 @@ +bun install v1.3.12 (700fc117) + +Checked 1035 installs across 1020 packages (no changes) [1074.00ms] +$ eslint . --max-warnings=0 +$ bun scripts/prepare-data.ts +prepare-data: frozen serving configuration -> /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/src/model-serving-config.json +prepare-data: [1.1] 127.2MB payload from /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/.cache/dashboard-data-aa34e5c9ea926848.json (cached) -> 23.8MB bundled summary + lazy explanations (us 34.2MB) +prepare-data: [1.0] 36.3MB payload from /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/.cache/dashboard-data-72d4b524fb6df8b3.json (cached) -> 6.9MB bundled summary + lazy explanations (us 12.1MB) +bun test v1.3.12 (700fc117) + + 170 pass + 0 fail + 5374 expect() calls +Ran 170 tests across 23 files. [6.18s] +$ bun run prepare-data && next build +$ bun scripts/prepare-data.ts +prepare-data: frozen serving configuration -> /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/src/model-serving-config.json +prepare-data: [1.1] 127.2MB payload from /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/.cache/dashboard-data-aa34e5c9ea926848.json (cached) -> 23.8MB bundled summary + lazy explanations (us 34.2MB) +prepare-data: [1.0] 36.3MB payload from /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/app/.cache/dashboard-data-72d4b524fb6df8b3.json (cached) -> 6.9MB bundled summary + lazy explanations (us 12.1MB) +▲ Next.js 16.2.6 (Turbopack) + + Creating an optimized production build ... +(node:5473) [DEP0205] DeprecationWarning: `module.register()` is deprecated. Use `module.registerHooks()` instead. +(Use `node --trace-deprecation ...` to show where the warning was created) +✓ Compiled successfully in 16.4s + Running TypeScript ... + Finished TypeScript in 30.7s ... + Collecting page data using 11 workers ... + Generating static pages using 11 workers (0/62) ... + Generating static pages using 11 workers (15/62) + Generating static pages using 11 workers (30/62) + Generating static pages using 11 workers (46/62) +✓ Generating static pages using 11 workers (62/62) in 1612ms + Finalizing page optimization ... + +Route (app) +┌ ○ / +├ ○ /_not-found +├ ○ /expand +├ ● /model/[id] +│ ├ /model/gpt-6-sol +│ ├ /model/claude-opus-5.5 +│ ├ /model/gpt-5.6-sol +│ └ [+43 more paths] +├ ○ /notes +├ ● /notes/[slug] +│ ├ /notes/2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs +│ ├ /notes/2026-10-05-five-snap-households-bbce +│ ├ /notes/2026-09-29-claude-sonnet-5-5-debuts-fifth +│ └ [+5 more paths] +├ ○ /paper +├ ○ /robots.txt +└ ○ /sitemap.xml + + +○ (Static) prerendered as static content +● (SSG) prerendered as static HTML (uses generateStaticParams) + +BUN_EXIT=0 diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/effects.json b/docs/release_20261006/validation/effects.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3cff8aa7 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/effects.json @@ -0,0 +1,427 @@ +{ + "release_tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "base_commit": "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2", + "summary_csv": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_model.csv", + "old_csv_sha256": "fe929fc5d4c01f74c4a199a68701e92001a64eee84b83131eaa22ef1d4ffb851", + "new_csv_sha256": "1b7640f3c0c7e7376c1bed0567dcc034866822a06e998658f4595ef74e5acabf", + "payload_sha256": "aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462", + "all_expected_effects_reproduced": true, + "change_min": 0.6678742593199019, + "change_max": 1.3542788161743147, + "models": [ + { + "model": 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/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006-r3/publish/tmpppsm21rz/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json +Wrote /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/results/local/release-batch/dashboard-data-20261006-r3/publish/tmpwgso682q/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json + 1 gpt-6-sol 95.003 -> 95.828 n=1920 + 2 claude-opus-5.5 93.697 -> 95.052 n=1920 + 3 gpt-5.6-sol 93.572 -> 94.433 n=1920 + 4 claude-sonnet-5.5 92.081 -> 93.253 n=1920 + 5 gpt-6-luna 92.097 -> 93.021 n=1920 + 6 gpt-6-astra 91.674 -> 92.535 n=1920 + 7 claude-fable-5.1 90.828 -> 92.070 n=1920 + 8 gpt-6.1-sol 90.595 -> 91.263 n=1920 + 9 kimi-k3 90.435 -> 91.228 n=1920 +10 gpt-5.6-luna 89.308 -> 90.279 n=1920 +11 ox-alpha 88.494 -> 89.775 n=1920 +12 inkling 88.220 -> 89.329 n=1920 +13 grok-4.7 88.335 -> 89.297 n=1920 +14 gpt-5.5 88.152 -> 89.102 n=1920 +15 gpt-5.6-terra 87.695 -> 88.969 n=1920 +16 deepseek-v4.1-flash 87.055 -> 88.008 n=1920 +17 grok-4.6 86.402 -> 87.519 n=1920 +18 gemini-3.8-flash 85.946 -> 87.219 n=1920 +19 grok-4.5 85.081 -> 86.293 n=1920 +20 claude-opus-5 84.030 -> 85.223 n=1920 +21 claude-fable-5 83.625 -> 84.892 n=1920 +22 deepseek-v4-pro-0813 83.372 -> 84.646 n=1920 +23 deepseek-v4-flash-0731 83.276 -> 84.519 n=1920 +24 gemini-3.7-flash 83.118 -> 84.218 n=1920 +25 gemini-3.6-flash 83.095 -> 84.206 n=1920 +26 gemini-3.5-flash-lite 81.959 -> 83.199 n=1920 +27 gemini-3.1-pro-preview 81.636 -> 82.766 n=1920 +28 glm-5.3 81.090 -> 82.345 n=1920 +29 gemini-3-flash-preview 80.951 -> 82.236 n=1920 +30 claude-opus-4.7 80.964 -> 82.163 n=1920 +31 grok-4.3 80.622 -> 81.881 n=1920 +32 grok-build-0.1 80.361 -> 81.619 n=1920 +33 claude-sonnet-4.6 80.276 -> 81.497 n=1920 +34 gemini-3.5-flash 80.042 -> 81.335 n=1920 +35 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview 79.739 -> 80.941 n=1920 +36 deepseek-v4-pro 79.751 -> 80.823 n=1920 +37 qwen-3.7-max 77.386 -> 78.606 n=1920 +38 glm-5.2 77.048 -> 78.009 n=1920 +39 claude-opus-4.8 76.175 -> 77.379 n=1920 +40 minimax-m3 75.746 -> 76.896 n=1920 +41 qwen3.8-max 75.225 -> 76.410 n=1920 +42 claude-haiku-4.5 74.660 -> 75.881 n=1920 +43 gpt-5.4-mini 73.667 -> 74.749 n=1920 +44 claude-sonnet-5 72.642 -> 73.794 n=1920 +45 kimi-k2.6 67.404 -> 68.111 n=1920 +46 gpt-5.4-nano 65.339 -> 66.536 n=1920 +Exported dashboard-data-20261006: aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462 (127225036 bytes) diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze-dry-run.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze-dry-run.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c66ddaf1 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze-dry-run.txt @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Validated dashboard-data-20261006: payload aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462, window 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29, 64 exclusions; nothing written diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5d9a18b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/freeze.txt @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/policybench/cli.py:1434: DtypeWarning: Columns (0: cost_is_estimated) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False. + no_tools = pd.read_csv(args.predictions) +/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:986: DtypeWarning: Columns (0: cost_is_estimated) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False. + predictions = pd.read_csv(RUN_DEST / "predictions.csv.gz") +Froze snapshot run: us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace + run dir: paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace + annotations: annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace + committed: model_serving_config.json, us_impact_summary_by_model.csv, us_reference_outputs.csv, us_scenarios.csv + manifest: paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json +Froze dashboard-data-20261006 locally: payload aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462, window 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29 +Next: sensitivity rescoring, prose, notes and tests, paper render, freeze_snapshot.py --rendered-only, then the release upload. diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/pytest-full.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/pytest-full.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..067c2fe8 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/pytest-full.txt @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +........................................................................ [ 4%] +........................................................................ [ 8%] +........................................................................ [ 12%] +........................................................................ [ 17%] +........................................................................ [ 21%] +........................................................................ [ 25%] +........................................................................ [ 30%] +..................................................s..................... [ 34%] +........................................................................ [ 38%] +........................................................................ [ 43%] +...........s.s.......................................................... [ 47%] +........................................................................ [ 51%] +........................................................................ 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[100%] +=============================== warnings summary =============================== +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_eitc_zero_for_50k_single +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_eitc_positive_for_low_income_family +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_income_tax_reconciles_from_compact_tax_components +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_household_structure_drives_filing_status_ground_truth +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_household_net_income_reasonable +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_calculate_ground_truth_dataframe +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_us_vectorized_ground_truth_matches_scalar_reference +tests/test_ground_truth.py::TestGroundTruth::test_us_vectorized_ground_truth_matches_scalar_reference + /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/.venv/lib/python3.12/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/irs/income/taxable_income/adjusted_gross_income/irs_gross_income/unemployment_insurance/taxable_unemployment_insurance.py:22: RuntimeWarning: invalid value encountered in divide + share = where(tax_unit_uc > 0, person_uc / tax_unit_uc, 0) + +tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py::test_snapshot_deviation_audit_annotations_are_complete_and_final +tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py::test_snapshot_audit_annotations_have_no_orphan_rows + /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/policybench/annotation_validation.py:245: DtypeWarning: Columns (0: cost_is_estimated) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False. + predictions = pd.read_csv(country_dir / "predictions.csv.gz") + +tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py::test_frozen_impact_summaries_score_the_scored_reference + /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:1092: DtypeWarning: Columns (0: cost_is_estimated) have mixed types. Specify dtype option on import or set low_memory=False. + predictions = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz") + +-- Docs: https://docs.pytest.org/en/stable/how-to/capture-warnings.html +1662 passed, 9 skipped, 11 warnings in 683.47s (0:11:23) +.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q --tb=short -p no:cacheprovider 413.47s user 71.45s system 69% cpu 11:33.95 total +PYTEST_EXIT=0 diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/release-note-test.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/release-note-test.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c4464248 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/release-note-test.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +. 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a/docs/release_20261006/validation/render-environment.json b/docs/release_20261006/validation/render-environment.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b5fcf7f0 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/render-environment.json @@ -0,0 +1,13 @@ +{ + "quarto_version": "1.9.36", + "original_quarto_js_sha256": "149a99b27f92f244418b45585ec7bcf60e9670c5a01dd90c0b723232b7b74e9c", + "workspace_quarto_js_sha256": "2a0cff3131f6c64933bd0183255b1f324a2cbff51b813f0af3f847dc083797f7", + "changes": [ + "darwinUserDataDir: workspace state path", + "darwinUserCacheDir: workspace state path" + ], + "original_notebook_py_sha256": "ebd38b30307dc66342b6a3c33557a6c5b1d776fe21e51007bd292e6dfae10f69", + "workspace_notebook_py_sha256": "bb216d1d42d2d9ae160562023c9171c0c89ef060123613dbe731d7fc3d821308", + "kernel_startup_timeout_seconds": 600, + "cell_execution_or_render_options_changed": false +} diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/render.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/render.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..b5aa8910 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/render.txt @@ -0,0 +1,163 @@ +Wrote /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/figures/manifest.json + +Starting python3 kernel...Done + +Executing 'index.quarto_ipynb_1' + Cell 1/16: ''............................Done + Cell 2/16: 'tbl-snapshot'................Done + Cell 3/16: ''............................Done + Cell 4/16: 'tbl-scope-rationale'.........Done + Cell 5/16: 'tbl-reference-review'........Done + Cell 6/16: 'tbl-deviation-audit'.........Done + Cell 7/16: 'tbl-us-top'..................Done + Cell 8/16: 'tbl-us-cost-latency'.........Done + Cell 9/16: 'tbl-baselines'...............Done + Cell 10/16: 'tbl-sensitivity'.............Done + Cell 11/16: 'tbl-weighting-sensitivity'...Done + Cell 12/16: 'tbl-us-hardest'..............Done + Cell 13/16: 'tbl-us-positive'.............Done + Cell 14/16: 'open-weight-lag'.............Done + Cell 15/16: 'tbl-fed-state'...............Done + Cell 16/16: 'tbl-parse-repair-summary'....Done + +Rendering output notebook [index.qmd] +Rendering HTML preview [index.qmd] +pandoc  + to: html + output-file: >- + /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench-wt/release-exclusions-batch/paper/index.html + standalone: true + wrap: none + default-image-extension: png + toc: true + toc-depth: 3 + css: + - pe-tokens.css + - policybench-theme.css + variables: {} + +metadata + document-css: false + lang: en + manuscript: + article: index.qmd + notebooks: + - notebook: index.qmd + title: Article Notebook + order: 9999 + - notebook: snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md + mecaFile: index-meca.zip + engines: + - path: /Users/maxghenis/.local/opt/quarto-1.9.36/share/extension-subtrees/julia-engine/_extensions/julia-engine/julia-engine.js + notebook-preview-options: + back: true + theme: none + title-block-style: manuscript + lightbox: auto + title: PolicyBench + subtitle: Benchmarking no-tool tax-and-benefit estimation in frontier language models + bibliography: + - references.bib + jupyter: python3 + author: + - name: Max Ghenis + affiliations: + - name: PolicyEngine + - name: Axiom Foundation + google-scholar: true + toc-location: left + clear-hidden-classes: none + remove-hidden: all + unroll-markdown-cells: true + +Output created: out/web/index.html + + +Starting python3 kernel...Done + +Executing 'index.quarto_ipynb_1' + Cell 1/16: ''............................Done + Cell 2/16: 'tbl-snapshot'................Done + Cell 3/16: ''............................Done + Cell 4/16: 'tbl-scope-rationale'.........Done + Cell 5/16: 'tbl-reference-review'........Done + Cell 6/16: 'tbl-deviation-audit'.........Done + Cell 7/16: 'tbl-us-top'..................Done + Cell 8/16: 'tbl-us-cost-latency'.........Done + Cell 9/16: 'tbl-baselines'...............Done + Cell 10/16: 'tbl-sensitivity'.............Done + Cell 11/16: 'tbl-weighting-sensitivity'...Done + Cell 12/16: 'tbl-us-hardest'..............Done + Cell 13/16: 'tbl-us-positive'.............Done + Cell 14/16: 'open-weight-lag'.............Done + Cell 15/16: 'tbl-fed-state'...............Done + Cell 16/16: 'tbl-parse-repair-summary'....Done + +pandoc  + to: latex + output-file: index.tex + standalone: true + shift-heading-level-by: -1 + pdf-engine: lualatex + variables: + graphics: true + tables: true + default-image-extension: pdf + toc: true + number-sections: true + +metadata + documentclass: scrartcl + classoption: + - DIV=11 + - numbers=noendperiod + papersize: letter + header-includes: + - \KOMAoption{captions}{tableheading} + - \usepackage{tgpagella} + - \usepackage[scaled=0.94]{helvet} + - \usepackage[scaled=0.9]{inconsolata} + block-headings: true + manuscript: + article: index.qmd + notebooks: + - notebook: index.qmd + title: Article Notebook + order: 9999 + - notebook: snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md + - notebook: out/web/index.qmd + mecaFile: index-meca.zip + engines: + - path: /Users/maxghenis/.local/opt/quarto-1.9.36/share/extension-subtrees/julia-engine/_extensions/julia-engine/julia-engine.js + notebook-preview-options: + back: true + theme: cosmo + title-block-style: manuscript + lightbox: auto + title: PolicyBench + subtitle: Benchmarking no-tool tax-and-benefit estimation in frontier language models + bibliography: + - references.bib + jupyter: python3 + author: Max Ghenis\thanks{PolicyEngine and Axiom Foundation.} + google-scholar: true + clear-hidden-classes: none + remove-hidden: all + unroll-markdown-cells: true + + +Rendering PDF +running lualatex - 1 + This is LuaHBTeX, Version 1.24.0 (TeX Live 2026) + restricted system commands enabled. + +running lualatex - 2 + This is LuaHBTeX, Version 1.24.0 (TeX Live 2026) + restricted system commands enabled. + + +Output created: out/pdf/index.pdf + +Rendered paper assets into app/public/paper +.venv/bin/python paper/render_paper.py 37.84s user 3.50s system 87% cpu 47.360 total +RENDER_EXIT=0 diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-check.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-check.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1f5f344d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-check.txt @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +All checks passed! diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-format.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-format.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f26fcee6 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/ruff-format.txt @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +125 files already formatted diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-by-variable.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-by-variable.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..470af38d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-by-variable.txt @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +wrote sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz (18 groups) + +## claude-fable-5 + +| program | board | auto | delta | +|---|---|---|---| +| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 60.8 | 82.3 | +21.5 | +| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 63.5 | 75.3 | +11.8 | +| federal_refundable_credits | 87.8 | 96.9 | +9.1 | +| person_medicare_eligible | 91.3 | 99.4 | +8.1 | +| payroll_tax | 86.3 | 93.7 | +7.4 | +| state_refundable_credits | 82.7 | 86.7 | +4.0 | +| snap | 83.9 | 87.1 | +3.2 | +| ssi | 96.9 | 100.0 | +3.1 | +| self_employment_tax | 97.0 | 99.0 | +2.0 | +| person_medicaid_eligible | 94.8 | 96.5 | +1.7 | +| person_wic_eligible | 99.4 | 100.0 | +0.6 | +| local_income_tax | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| person_early_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| person_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| reduced_price_school_meals_eligible | 99.0 | 99.0 | +0.0 | +| tanf | 99.0 | 99.0 | +0.0 | +| free_school_meals_eligible | 99.0 | 98.0 | -1.0 | +| person_chip_eligible | 98.9 | 97.2 | -1.7 | +wrote sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz (18 groups) +wrote sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz (18 groups) +wrote sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz (18 groups) + +## claude-fable-5.1 + +| program | board (JSON) | auto (tool declared) | delta | +|---|---|---|---| +| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 74.1 | 76.5 | +2.4 | +| person_medicare_eligible | 96.5 | 98.3 | +1.8 | +| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 82.3 | 83.5 | +1.2 | +| free_school_meals_eligible | 98.0 | 99.0 | +1.0 | +| reduced_price_school_meals_eligible | 99.0 | 100.0 | +1.0 | +| ssi | 99.0 | 100.0 | +1.0 | +| person_medicaid_eligible | 97.1 | 97.7 | +0.6 | +| local_income_tax | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| payroll_tax | 92.6 | 92.6 | +0.0 | +| person_early_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| person_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| person_wic_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| self_employment_tax | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | +| snap | 88.2 | 88.2 | +0.0 | +| tanf | 99.0 | 99.0 | +0.0 | +| federal_refundable_credits | 99.0 | 98.0 | -1.0 | +| state_refundable_credits | 91.8 | 90.8 | -1.0 | +| person_chip_eligible | 97.2 | 96.0 | -1.2 | diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-summaries.txt b/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-summaries.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f80ff6c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/sensitivity-summaries.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5 @@ +claude-fable-5.1 board 92.070 (#7) auto 93.037 (would rank #5) delta +0.967 +claude-fable-5 board 84.892 (#21) auto 92.817 (would rank #6) delta +7.925 +claude-opus-5 board 85.223 (#20) auto 91.252 (would rank #9) delta +6.029 +claude-sonnet-5 board 73.794 (#44) auto 86.076 (would rank #20) delta +12.282 +scored outputs: 1,920; exclusions: 64; rows: 46 diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/stage.json b/docs/release_20261006/validation/stage.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1800d88c --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/stage.json @@ -0,0 +1,49 @@ +{ + "adjudications": 77, + "base_commit": "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2", + "base_sha256": "d1cae7456cf91ab6fa04644a4d5d570e359522386a7c52f9645d5923bfc11258", + "base_tag": "dashboard-data-20260930", + "changed_annotation_rows": { + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": 376, + "us_case_notes.csv": 11, + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": 9 + }, + "exclusions": 64, + "new_exclusions": [ + [ + "scenario_022", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + [ + "scenario_032", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_043", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_081", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + [ + "scenario_081", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_082", + "payroll_tax" + ], + [ + "scenario_114", + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + [ + "scenario_114", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ] + ], + "release_tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "rewrites_sha256": "b4081cc7b8b460f693190c1b106aaff83d0804fa301242893b46dc060ee676e2", + "spec_sha256": "e1f9ca48f2c961f3d1f10ea0a838db08918ac816199391ad2bdc415e9dcd329e" +} diff --git a/docs/release_20261006/validation/static-checks.json b/docs/release_20261006/validation/static-checks.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5875fd5c --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/release_20261006/validation/static-checks.json @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +{ + "step": "pre-freeze static checks", + "head": "b959edbec053676d9f9e2970ac4cf24e8a5b7efd", + "python": "3.12.14", + "bun": "1.3.12", + "checks": { + "ruff check .": 0, + "ruff format --check .": 0, + "bun run lint": 0 + } +} diff --git a/paper/index.qmd b/paper/index.qmd index d1966f22..6409d64b 100644 --- a/paper/index.qmd +++ b/paper/index.qmd @@ -886,11 +886,13 @@ reference_audit = pd.DataFrame( ["US state and local income tax", "Reviewed state-rule and bracket suspects; most applied wrong schedules or missed conformity elections and forgiveness programs. One genuine defect: New Jersey's filing-threshold floor was bypassed on the benchmarked path (fixed, policyengine-us #8845)."], ["US Head Start eligibility", "Two flags reflected a genuine age-window defect (fixed, policyengine-us #8846); references regenerated with the fix."], ["US payroll and overtime", "Reviewed during development; upstream data fixes and prompt clarifications were applied before the frozen snapshot."], + ["US payroll tax (October 2026 review)", f"No judge flag: a review of the state part of every payroll reference classified each state program by who owes the contribution. Minnesota's and Colorado's paid leave laws, Massachusetts's paid family and medical leave law and New York's paid family leave and disability law let the employer deduct an employee share of the premium up to a cap but do not require it; the {r.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word('payroll_optional_shares')} references from those states, which count the cap, are excluded as unlisted inputs. California's, Connecticut's, New Jersey's and Pennsylvania's employee contributions are owed by the worker and withheld by the employer, and the review left those references as they were."], ["US federal income tax (September 2026 wave)", "Engine defects confirmed: the traditional IRA deduction ignores the compensation limit and the active-participant phase-out (IRC 219(b), 219(g)); estate income never enters gross income; elective deferrals count as EITC and refundable-CTC earned income. Affected outputs excluded. Capital gain distributions reported without Schedule D never reached AGI, a defect fixed upstream after the freeze; the references it alone moves are regenerated with the fix. The taxability of employment disability benefits and whether the output includes the net investment income tax excluded as unlisted inputs. The educator-expense flag dissolved against the $350 2026 cap."], ["US state income tax and credits (September 2026 wave)", "Engine defects confirmed in New Jersey worker contributions, Wisconsin's elected retirement exclusion, Wisconsin's capital gain exclusion (which leaves out capital gain distributions), Idaho's health-premium subtraction, California itemized-deduction conformity, and Massachusetts dividends taxed without the short-term capital loss offset; affected outputs excluded. The CalEITC's missing second lookup at adjusted gross income and New York's renter cap were fixed upstream after the freeze; the affected references are regenerated with the fixes. Wisconsin homestead income turned on the unlisted type of survivor benefits (excluded as an unlisted input). The New Jersey EITC, New York real property tax credit and Idaho child tax credit flags dissolved against the statute (Idaho's credit expired after 2025)."], ["US SNAP, SSI and CHIP (September 2026 wave)", "Whether listed mortgage interest is on the occupied home, unlisted hours worked, survivor-benefit taxability, and whether an adult tax dependent is the filers' child (three Medicaid outputs) excluded as unlisted inputs. SNAP October-December references regenerated with the FY2026 figures, the last published before the freeze. SNAP references regenerated for every month of 2026 with the engine's SNAP rounding defects fixed as policyengine-us fixed them after the freeze (cents in the allotment, an unrounded minimum benefit, floored net income, unrounded income standards). One Michigan SNAP reference regenerated with the fix for the SNAP child support option, whose engine values carried the opposite meaning (Michigan deducts child support from net income, and the engine excluded it from gross income; fixed upstream in policyengine-us #9586 on 2026-09-24). The heat-and-eat utility allowance granted without an elderly or disabled member, which P.L. 119-21 ended, excluded as an engine defect. The CHIP flag dissolved: employer coverage bars CHIP."], ["US projected 2026 parameters (September 2026 wave)", "No judge flag: a recomputation with every projected 2026 value held found references resting on price-index projections. Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Missouri amounts and Maryland's withholding allowance had been published before the freeze; California's indexed amounts, the IRS sales tax tables, Idaho's threshold and Maryland's return deduction had not. Scored references regenerated with the published or last-published amounts; Wisconsin's reach only the corrected values of Wisconsin outputs excluded for engine defects."], [f"US references on policyengine-us {r.policyengine_us_version} (September 2026 upgrade)", f"Once PolicyBench had ported the conventions, an investigator traced every output that still moved between policyengine-us {r.previous_policyengine_us_version} and {r.policyengine_us_version} to its upstream change and settled it against primary sources and their publication dates. An independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The upgrade changes {r.engine_upgrade_scored_change_count} scored references, for law published before the freeze that {r.previous_policyengine_us_version} did not encode or misapplied: New Jersey's 2026-2028 child tax credit schedule (P.L.2026, c.26), Arizona's 200 percent SNAP categorical eligibility limit from March 2026, child support received counted as income for school meals (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and New York's Empire State child credit phase-out rounding. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, {r.engine_upgrade_new_exclusion_count} federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: {r.policyengine_us_version} counts a listed state and local tax refund as income, which is right only if the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the prior year (26 U.S.C. 111(a)). PolicyBench re-reviewed the {r.engine_upgrade_rechecked_count} excluded outputs that move; all stay excluded. The re-review of a California household's excluded SNAP output flagged its head's Medicaid eligibility, which turns on the same unlisted input, SSI's disability criterion, through the Working Disabled Program; PolicyBench excluded it."], + ["US federal and Virginia income tax (October 2026 review)", f"No judge flag: a review of release dashboard-data-20260930 swept every reference on policyengine-us {r.policyengine_us_version} under readings of two inputs no prompt states. The state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction is policyengine-us's formula estimate of state income tax withheld on federal adjusted gross income; read as the household paying its 2026 liability during the year, or paying none, {r.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word('salt_withholding')} scored federal income tax outputs move, and PolicyBench excluded them; the readings also move {r.review_sweep_already_excluded_count_word('salt_withholding')} federal outputs already excluded. policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled and counts a modeled Part B premium as a medical expense; without it, {r.review_sweep_moved_household_count_word('medicare_part_b')} household's federal and Virginia income tax move, and both are excluded."], ], columns=["Discrepancy class", "Review outcome"], ) @@ -1076,15 +1078,17 @@ This does not make PolicyEngine infallible, so we treated the reference outputs The audit wave run with the September 22 additions used a stronger judge, Claude Opus 5.5, and it found what the earlier waves had not. The judge flagged `{python} r.audit_flagged_case_count` references. Adjudication against primary sources and sandbox runs of the reference engine affirmed `{python} r.audit_flagged_count("affirmed")` of them, traced `{python} r.audit_flagged_count("unlisted_input")` to inputs the prompt never lists, replaced `{python} r.audit_flagged_count("regenerated")` with a regenerated reference, and confirmed `{python} r.audit_flagged_count("engine_defect")` as defects in policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`, the version behind the references then. The judge's stated hypothesis was not always the defect: a Wisconsin flag blamed a missing retirement exclusion that the engine does apply, on a path the benchmarked output skips, and a Montana flag cited a child tax credit that was never enacted, while the reference was wrong for another reason. The judge also sees only the cases a new model joins, so its flags sample each defect rather than bound it. Each root cause's rule was therefore implemented as a sandbox fix on the same engine version and every reference recomputed under it. Of those root causes, `{python} r.upstream_fixed_root_cause_count` had been fixed in policyengine-us after the references were frozen (`{python} r.upstream_fix_prs_fmt`): capital gain distributions, New York's renter cap, the CalEITC's lookup at adjusted gross income, and the SNAP rounding and SNAP child support option described below. For the September 22 references, PolicyBench applied each fix on that engine version to the scored references it moves, `{python} r.regenerated_by_upstream_fix_count` in all, and policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` contains all `{python} r.upstream_fixed_root_cause_count` fixes. An output one of them moves that an unfixed cause also moves stays excluded. The capital gain fix as first built also extended Wisconsin's 30 percent capital gain exclusion (Wis. Stat. 71.05(6)(b)9) to the distributions. The upstream fix does not, so that part is recorded as its own defect, not fixed upstream, measured on top of the upstream fix and Wisconsin's published amounts, and the two outputs it moves are excluded (one of them already excluded for another Wisconsin defect). Every output a defect not yet fixed upstream moves by more than a dollar is excluded from scoring for every model: `{python} r.engine_defect_exclusion_count` outputs in `{python} r.excluded_output_households_by_reason["reference_engine_defect"]` households are recorded as engine-defect exclusions across `{python} r.engine_defect_root_cause_count` root causes, and `{python} r.engine_defect_unflagged_count` of them had never been flagged (an output such a defect moves that was already excluded for an unlisted input keeps that record). They stay excluded until references built on a fixed engine replace them. A second model, GPT-6 Astra, then re-derived the sandbox fixes the first pass built from primary sources and reran their sweeps. It narrowed several fixes to the benchmark year and filers they reach, reclassified two root causes as unlisted inputs (the type of a household's survivor benefits, and whether listed mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies), and found that a California credit move came from a separate defect: the engine never looks the CalEITC up a second time at adjusted gross income, as the credit worksheet requires. -The same wave tested a failure mode no judge flagged. policyengine-us fills a parameter's values past its last encoded year by projecting it with a price index, so a 2026 reference can rest on a forecast rather than on the amount a government published. Every reference was recomputed with each projected 2026 value held at its last encoded value, and each projected amount behind a moved output was then sourced. Where the government published the 2026 amount before the freeze, the reference takes it: Minnesota's, Michigan's and Missouri's brackets, deductions and exemptions, and Maryland's withholding allowance, which reaches federal tax through the state and local tax deduction. Wisconsin had published its 2026 brackets and deductions too, but every Wisconsin output they move is excluded for an engine defect, so they enter only those outputs' corrected values. Where no 2026 amount published before the freeze was found, the reference takes the last amount published: California's indexed amounts, whose 2026 factor rests on June 2026 prices; the IRS optional sales tax tables, whose 2026 edition had not been found by September 22; Idaho's zero-rate threshold; Maryland's return deduction; and SNAP's FY2027 figures, published on 2026-08-21. Illinois's exemption and Minnesota's child credit projections matched the published amounts. These corrections change parameter values and no rule, so the affected references were regenerated with the same engine version rather than excluded: `{python} r.regenerated_by_convention_count` references, most of them SNAP. With the upstream fixes, the September 22 release regenerated `{python} r.regenerated_reference_count` references in `{python} r.regenerated_reference_household_count` households, `{python} r.regenerated_snap_reference_count` of them SNAP. The reference sidecar records each regenerated value with the fix that produced it, and the fixes, the recomputation of every reference under each, and the verification reports are committed with the snapshot (`reference_audit/2026-09-22`). +The same wave tested a failure mode no judge flagged. policyengine-us fills a parameter's values past its last encoded year by projecting it with a price index, so a 2026 reference can rest on a forecast rather than on the amount a government published. Every reference was recomputed with each projected 2026 value held at its last encoded value, and each projected amount behind a moved output was then sourced. Where the government published the 2026 amount before the freeze, the reference takes it: Minnesota's, Michigan's and Missouri's brackets, deductions and exemptions, and Maryland's withholding allowance. policyengine-us reads the allowance only in its estimate of Maryland income tax withheld, which fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction; the one Maryland federal output that estimate moves is excluded (`reference_audit/2026-10-05`). Wisconsin had published its 2026 brackets and deductions too, but every Wisconsin output they move is excluded for an engine defect, so they enter only those outputs' corrected values. Where no 2026 amount published before the freeze was found, the reference takes the last amount published: California's indexed amounts, whose 2026 factor rests on June 2026 prices; the IRS optional sales tax tables, whose 2026 edition had not been found by September 22; Idaho's zero-rate threshold; Maryland's return deduction; and SNAP's FY2027 figures, published on 2026-08-21. Illinois's exemption and Minnesota's child credit projections matched the published amounts. These corrections change parameter values and no rule, so the affected references were regenerated with the same engine version rather than excluded: `{python} r.regenerated_by_convention_count` references, most of them SNAP. With the upstream fixes, the September 22 release regenerated `{python} r.regenerated_reference_count` references in `{python} r.regenerated_reference_household_count` households, `{python} r.regenerated_snap_reference_count` of them SNAP. The reference sidecar records each regenerated value with the fix that produced it, and the fixes, the recomputation of every reference under each, and the verification reports are committed with the snapshot (`reference_audit/2026-09-22`). The SNAP convention as first built also corrected the engine's SNAP arithmetic, and an independent review of the snapshot separated those corrections from the parameter holds. They are engine defects, each fixed in policyengine-us after the freeze (#9162 and #9318), so the SNAP references apply the fixes: the engine kept cents in the allotment, where 7 CFR 273.10(e)(2)(ii)(A) requires a whole-dollar allotment; it returned a minimum benefit of $23.84 a month, where 7 CFR 273.10(e)(2)(ii)(C) rounds 8 percent of the one-person maximum to the nearest dollar ($24); it floored net income, which 7 CFR 273.10(e)(1)(ii) requires a state to round to the nearest dollar at each step or to calculate by its TANF procedure, which may keep cents; and it compared income with unrounded income standards. Given the engine's household size, eligibility and floored net income, the Axiom rules engine's encoding of 7 U.S.C. 2017(a) reproduces the whole-dollar allotment of all 19 households the first SNAP convention module changed, in each month from January to September (171 of 171 monthly comparisons), and the federal minimum benefit; it did not test New Jersey's state minimum, and it covers the allotment rounding, not the net income rounding the published references also apply. Recomputing SNAP with net income's cents kept, rather than rounded to the nearest dollar as the upstream fix does, moves no scored reference by more than the dollar tolerance. One SNAP defect is not fixed upstream: the engine still grants the heat-and-eat standard utility allowance to households without an elderly or disabled member, which P.L. 119-21 section 10103 ended in July 2025, and the scored output it moves is excluded. That household's prompt calls its head disabled but states none of the routes by which 7 U.S.C. 2012(j) defines a disabled member, such as receiving SSI or Social Security disability benefits; read the other way, the allowance would stand, and so would the reference the publication conventions and upstream SNAP fixes give ($3,576, which the output would carry if scored), so the output is excluded on either reading. One more SNAP defect was found after the September 22 release and fixed upstream on 2026-09-24: the engine's values for the SNAP child support option carried the opposite meaning from the one its formulas read. A state may exclude legally obligated child support paid from gross income (7 CFR 273.9(c)(17)); a state that does not must deduct it from net income (273.9(d)(5)). For 2026 the engine excluded it in 37 jurisdictions that USDA's SNAP State Options Report lists as deducting it, Michigan among them, and deducted it in 9 of the 14 it lists as excluding it. Recomputed under the fix (policyengine-us #9586), one reference moves: a one-person Michigan household that pays child support stayed within the 200 percent gross limit of Michigan's broad-based categorical eligibility only because the engine excluded the payments, so the engine granted it the $24 monthly minimum; counting the payments, as Michigan does, leaves it ineligible, and the regenerated reference is $0. -PolicyBench rebuilt the references on `{python} r.reference_rebuilt_date` with policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, the newest release when it began sweeping the references that day (uploaded `{python} r.reference_engine_uploaded_utc` UTC), in place of `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`. It computes each scored reference with `policyengine_us.Simulation`. The snapshot also records policyengine.py `{python} r.policyengine_version` for provenance; its certified US bundle carries an older policyengine-us, and policyengine.py does not load beside `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. PolicyBench ported the publication conventions to the new version. The SNAP convention holds each FY2026 figure directly for October to December 2026, because the new version carries USDA's FY2027 figures as published values. policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` counts Maryland county income tax in its state income tax. PolicyBench's state income tax output leaves local tax out, so an adapter restores that scope, and the county tax stays in the federal state and local tax deduction. policyengine-us #9261 changed from 40 hours to 0 the default of the weekly-hours input that SNAP's work rules read, so the scenario builder also passes each prompt's stated usual weekly hours under that input's name. After the port, PolicyBench grouped every output that still moved by root cause. An investigator settled each root cause from the upstream commits, the engine code of both versions and primary legal sources with their publication dates, and an independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The move changes `{python} r.engine_upgrade_scored_change_count` scored references (@tbl-reference-review). Two take law published before the freeze that policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` did not encode: New Jersey's child tax credit schedule for 2026 to 2028 (P.L.2026, c.26, approved June 30, 2026), and Arizona's broad-based categorical eligibility limit for SNAP, which Arizona raised from 185 to 200 percent of the poverty guideline starting with benefit month March 2026. Two follow engine corrections: policyengine-us added child support received to school-meal income (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and policyengine-us #9425 corrected the rounding in New York's Empire State child credit phase-out. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, `{python} r.engine_upgrade_new_exclusion_count` federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: the new version counts a listed state and local tax refund as income (policyengine-us #9422), and whether any of it is income depends on whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it (26 U.S.C. 111(a)), which the prompt does not say. The re-review of a California household's excluded SNAP output also flagged a scored output the move did not change: the head's Medicaid eligibility. The head's income is above the 138 percent limit for the adult expansion group, so only a disability pathway leads to Medi-Cal, and California's Working Disabled Program requires SSI's definition of disability, the unlisted input that already excludes the household's SNAP. policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` tests the general disability flag there and gives 1 under either reading; with the program's test reading SSI's definition, the head qualifies only by meeting it, and PolicyBench excluded the output. Another `{python} r.engine_upgrade_within_tolerance_count` references move by less than the dollar tolerance. The `{python} r.excluded_output_count` excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on (`{python} r.excluded_outputs_on_previous_engine_count` computed with policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`, `{python} r.excluded_outputs_on_reference_engine_count` with `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`), and PolicyBench re-reviewed the `{python} r.engine_upgrade_rechecked_count` of them that move on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`; all stay excluded. policyengine-us `{python} r.publication_check_policyengine_us_version`, the newest release when PolicyBench checked PyPI on `{python} r.publication_check_pypi_read_date` at `{python} r.publication_check_pypi_read_utc` UTC, gives the same value as `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` for all `{python} r.total_outputs_per_model_fmt` outputs under the same conventions and adapter. The reference sidecar lists every change, and `reference_audit/2026-09-28` holds the recomputation of every output, the investigations and the reviews. +PolicyBench rebuilt the references on `{python} r.reference_rebuilt_date` with policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, the newest release when it began sweeping the references that day (uploaded `{python} r.reference_engine_uploaded_utc` UTC), in place of `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`. It computes each scored reference with `policyengine_us.Simulation`. The snapshot also records policyengine.py `{python} r.policyengine_version` for provenance; its certified US bundle carries an older policyengine-us, and policyengine.py does not load beside `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. PolicyBench ported the publication conventions to the new version. The SNAP convention holds each FY2026 figure directly for October to December 2026, because the new version carries USDA's FY2027 figures as published values. policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` counts Maryland county income tax in its state income tax. PolicyBench's state income tax output leaves local tax out, so an adapter restores that scope, and the county tax stays in the federal state and local tax deduction. policyengine-us #9261 changed from 40 hours to 0 the default of the weekly-hours input that SNAP's work rules read, so the scenario builder also passes each prompt's stated usual weekly hours under that input's name. After the port, PolicyBench grouped every output that still moved by root cause. An investigator settled each root cause from the upstream commits, the engine code of both versions and primary legal sources with their publication dates, and an independent reviewer tried to refute each settlement. The move changes `{python} r.engine_upgrade_scored_change_count` scored references (@tbl-reference-review). Two take law published before the freeze that policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` did not encode: New Jersey's child tax credit schedule for 2026 to 2028 (P.L.2026, c.26, approved June 30, 2026), and Arizona's broad-based categorical eligibility limit for SNAP, which Arizona raised from 185 to 200 percent of the poverty guideline starting with benefit month March 2026. Two follow engine corrections: policyengine-us added child support received to school-meal income (7 CFR 245.6(a)(5)(ii)), and policyengine-us #9425 corrected the rounding in New York's Empire State child credit phase-out. The investigation found, and PolicyBench excluded, `{python} r.engine_upgrade_new_exclusion_count` federal income tax outputs that depend on an unlisted input: the new version counts a listed state and local tax refund as income (policyengine-us #9422), and whether any of it is income depends on whether the refunded tax reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it (26 U.S.C. 111(a)), which the prompt does not say. The re-review of a California household's excluded SNAP output also flagged a scored output the move did not change: the head's Medicaid eligibility. The head's income is above the 138 percent limit for the adult expansion group, so only a disability pathway leads to Medi-Cal, and California's Working Disabled Program requires SSI's definition of disability, the unlisted input that already excludes the household's SNAP. policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` tests the general disability flag there and gives 1 under either reading; with the program's test reading SSI's definition, the head qualifies only by meeting it, and PolicyBench excluded the output. Another `{python} r.engine_upgrade_within_tolerance_count` references move by less than the dollar tolerance. PolicyBench re-reviewed the `{python} r.engine_upgrade_rechecked_count` excluded outputs whose values move on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`; all stay excluded, each with the value it was decided on. policyengine-us `{python} r.publication_check_policyengine_us_version`, the newest release when PolicyBench checked PyPI on `{python} r.publication_check_pypi_read_date` at `{python} r.publication_check_pypi_read_utc` UTC, gives the same value as `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` for all `{python} r.total_outputs_per_model_fmt` outputs under the same conventions and adapter. The reference sidecar lists every change, and `reference_audit/2026-09-28` holds the recomputation of every output, the investigations and the reviews. + +A review of release dashboard-data-20260930 on `{python} r.review_date` found `{python} r.review_sweep_count_word` more inputs that no prompt states behind scored references; no judge had flagged the scored outputs they move (`reference_audit/2026-10-05`, `reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b` and `reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll`). The first is the state income tax in the federal state and local tax deduction, which takes the state income tax a household paid during the year, or general sales tax instead (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3) and (b)(5)). No prompt states state income tax withheld or paid. policyengine-us fills that input with `state_withheld_income_tax`, a formula estimate of withholding on the person's whole federal adjusted gross income rather than the household's state liability, and the references take the estimate. Read as the household paying its 2026 state income tax during the year, or as paying none, the federal income tax of `{python} r.review_sweep_moved_count_word("salt_withholding")` households moves, `{python} r.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word("salt_withholding")` of them scored. The second is Medicare enrollment and a Part B premium. policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled and adds the modeled Part B premium, $2,434.80 for 2026 where the Medicare Savings Program does not pay it, to medical expenses; no prompt states either. The prompt's instruction to assume program take-up supports the reference, and its rules that unlisted numbers are zero and that unlisted expenses and health coverage are not to be inferred support the other reading. Without the premium, the outputs of `{python} r.review_sweep_moved_household_count_word("medicare_part_b")` household move: it itemizes, so its federal income tax moves, and Virginia's itemized deductions start from the federal ones, so its Virginia income tax moves too. The third is whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium. The payroll output counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts and New York the law lets the employer deduct an employee share of such a premium from wages, up to a cap, but does not require it, so the employee pays from $0 to the cap at the employer's choice. The `{python} r.review_sweep_moved_count_word("payroll_optional_shares")` payroll references from those states count the cap, and the prompt does not state the employer's choice; read as the amount the law requires of the employee, each is employee federal payroll tax alone. California's, Connecticut's, New Jersey's and Pennsylvania's employee contributions are owed by the worker and withheld by the employer, and the review left those references as they were. Each audit recomputed every output on policyengine-us `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` with the publication conventions, under each reading, and each sweep's baseline reproduces all `{python} r.review_scored_before_count_fmt` references that release scored. Beyond the one-dollar tolerance, the sweeps move `{python} r.review_new_exclusion_count_word` scored outputs, which PolicyBench excluded, and `{python} r.review_already_excluded_moved_count_word` federal income tax outputs already excluded for other reasons; they move `{python} r.review_still_scored_moves_phrase` by any amount. The `{python} r.review_new_exclusion_count_word` records are computed on policyengine-us `{python} r.review_exclusion_engine_version`, whose values are the references. The `{python} r.excluded_output_count` excluded outputs now keep the values they were decided on (`{python} r.excluded_outputs_on_previous_engine_count` computed with policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`, `{python} r.excluded_outputs_on_reference_engine_count` with `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`). The audit tooling itself required hardening, which we report because it changes how much the annotations can be trusted. The derivation narratives displayed alongside reference values are generated from engine computation traces. After earlier model-written narratives were found to misattribute eligibility pathways, mechanical validators now enforce that each narrative states the engine's actual mechanism — for example, that a child ineligible for CHIP because they qualify for Medicaid is never described as failing a CHIP income test. The failure-audit judge reads these grounded narratives together with engine facts and must return a per-model diagnosis naming the specific rule or computation the model missed. It is barred from re-adjudicating the reference in prose: hedged or reference-adjudicating verdicts are mechanically rejected and re-judged, and genuine reference doubt is routed to a structured flag that triggers the manual adjudication described above. -After freezing the snapshot and completing response-contract repairs, we annotated the `{python} r.audit_annotated_row_count_fmt` `{python} r.audit_selection_rule` and their scenario-output cases. @tbl-deviation-audit reports the final classifications for that legacy-threshold audit universe. It contains `{python} r.annotated_exact_miss_count_fmt` of the snapshot's `{python} r.exact_match_miss_count_fmt` exact-match misses and `{python} r.annotated_exact_hit_count_fmt` exact hits. The `{python} r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count_fmt` other rows with bounded score below 100 fall outside the selection and have no audit annotation. Each annotated row on a scored output resolves to one of two final classes: `llm_error` (a substantive miscalculation, with a per-model diagnosis naming the rule or computation the model missed) or `parse_contract_failure` (a missing or unparsable answer, classified deterministically). Two further classes describe outputs the snapshot does not score, and each such output is removed from scoring for every model, so no model gains or loses from it. `prompt_ambiguity` marks `{python} r.unlisted_input_exclusion_count` outputs whose reference depends on an input the prompt never lists, so a careful reader could take the stated facts either way; for each, the reference was recomputed under the other reading with the engine version that produced it, and it moved (the California Medicaid output once the engine's Working Disabled Program test read SSI's definition, as the program does). `reference_engine_defect` marks the `{python} r.engine_defect_exclusion_count` outputs where that engine misapplies the law on stated facts. Together they remove `{python} r.excluded_output_phrase` in `{python} r.excluded_output_households_phrase`, and of the `{python} r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count_fmt` annotated rows on those outputs, `{python} f"{r.excluded_descriptive_row_count:,}"` carry one of these classes as description rather than as a scored class and the rest are answers that never parsed. A scored reference also follows from law published before the references were frozen on 2026-07-03. USDA published the FY2027 SNAP cost-of-living figures on 2026-08-21, after the freeze and after most rows were answered, so grading any model on them would score it against law it could not have seen; SNAP's October to December months therefore hold the FY2026 figures, and the publication conventions described above apply the same rule to every projected amount. Every model is therefore scored on `{python} r.scored_outputs_per_model_fmt` of its `{python} r.total_outputs_per_model_fmt` requested outputs. The exclusion record (`reference_exclusions.json`) travels with the frozen run and the manifest pins it. No scored row remains classified as a prompt ambiguity, unresolved reference issue, or needs-review item, and zero annotated rows carry a standing reference-suspect flag. The audit pipeline is model-assisted, with developer adjudication of each reference-suspect or prompt-ambiguity flag rather than independent external validation; this snapshot records `{python} r.audit_adjudicated_case_phrase` of developer adjudication, kept beside the annotations with the judge's verdict and the reasoning. Three judge models produced the verdicts, and all are board rows: GPT-5.6 Sol, called through the Codex CLI, judged the cases whose verdicts predate the September 2026 additions; Claude Opus 5, called through the Claude Code CLI, judged the `{python} r.audit_opus_judged_case_count_fmt` cases the September 5 additions joined that no later judge re-judged; and Claude Opus 5.5 judged the cases the September 22, September 29 and September 30 additions joined or a reference revision changed (`{python} r.audit_opus55_judged_case_count_fmt` of `{python} r.audit_case_count_fmt` cases), its own row's cases included. Each verdict is recorded in a per-case provenance sidecar in the audit tree. Judge verdicts classify misses after scoring and change no score, and every reference flag a judge raised is settled by the developer adjudication above. The unlisted inputs behind the unlisted-input exclusions are the SSI disability criterion (`meets_ssi_disability_criteria`), false for every person in the certified June 2026 microdata build; months of SSDI receipt (`months_receiving_social_security_disability`), never carried by the data and integer-typed, which the prompt builder does not expose; weekly hours worked (`weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr`), which policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` defaulted to 40 where the prompt treats unlisted numbers as zero; whether survivor benefits other than Social Security are a pension or annuity, which the prompt does not say and which decides both their taxability and whether they count toward Wisconsin's homestead credit income; who paid for the coverage behind listed employment disability benefits, which decides whether they are taxable; whether listed home mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies, which decides whether SNAP counts it as a shelter cost; whether an adult tax dependent is the claiming filers' child, which decides whose income counts in that dependent's Medicaid household; whether the tax behind a listed state and local tax refund reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it, which decides how much of the refund is income; and whether listed interest comes from a Massachusetts bank deposit, which moves only an output already recorded as an engine-defect exclusion. One definition was also open: the output definition of federal income tax before refundable credits does not say whether it includes the net investment income tax, which the reference adds and Form 1040 reports after its line for tax after nonrefundable credits, so the outputs that tax moves are excluded as well. The prompt lists a general `is disabled` fact and never a program-specific determination (@sec-disability). Every exclusion but the California Medicaid output was derived mechanically rather than from which models missed: each is an output that a sweep of every reference, under an alternative reading or an engine defect's sandbox fix, moved on policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` or, for the state and local tax refund reading, on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. On `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`, PolicyBench excluded every output an alternative reading of the September 22 audit moved and every output a defect not fixed upstream moved by more than a dollar, which is why the set includes three SNAP outputs that move through the elderly-or-disabled SNAP rules (in two of those households SSI itself stays at zero; in the third an aged member already receives SSI and the disabled member would add a second benefit). On `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, PolicyBench re-ran `{python} r.rerun_sweep_september_22_count_word` of those sweeps (the IRA deduction limit fix, the net investment income tax definition, and the readings for mortgage residence and 40 unlisted weekly hours) and ran a new one for the state and local tax refund reading. Beyond the one-dollar exact-match tolerance, the new sweep moves `{python} r.rerun_sweep_new_excluded_count_word` previously scored federal income tax outputs, and PolicyBench excluded them. Set against the same `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` calculation without its fix or reading, no sweep moves a scored output by more than the tolerance, and `{python} r.rerun_sweep_scored_within_tolerance_count_word` scored outputs move by less. PolicyBench did not re-run the other sweeps on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. On `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, the California Medicaid output stays at 1 under either reading of SSI's disability criterion, because the engine's Working Disabled Program test reads the general flag in its place. PolicyBench found that output when it re-reviewed the household's excluded SNAP output, and excluded it because the program itself requires SSI's definition of disability. +After freezing the snapshot and completing response-contract repairs, we annotated the `{python} r.audit_annotated_row_count_fmt` `{python} r.audit_selection_rule` and their scenario-output cases. @tbl-deviation-audit reports the final classifications for that legacy-threshold audit universe. It contains `{python} r.annotated_exact_miss_count_fmt` of the snapshot's `{python} r.exact_match_miss_count_fmt` exact-match misses and `{python} r.annotated_exact_hit_count_fmt` exact hits. The `{python} r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count_fmt` other rows with bounded score below 100 fall outside the selection and have no audit annotation. Each annotated row on a scored output resolves to one of two final classes: `llm_error` (a substantive miscalculation, with a per-model diagnosis naming the rule or computation the model missed) or `parse_contract_failure` (a missing or unparsable answer, classified deterministically). Two further classes describe outputs the snapshot does not score, and each such output is removed from scoring for every model, so no model gains or loses from it. `prompt_ambiguity` marks `{python} r.unlisted_input_exclusion_count` outputs whose reference depends on an input the prompt never lists, so a careful reader could take the stated facts either way; for each, the reference was recomputed under the other reading with the engine version that produced it, and it moved (the California Medicaid output once the engine's Working Disabled Program test read SSI's definition, as the program does). `reference_engine_defect` marks the `{python} r.engine_defect_exclusion_count` outputs where that engine misapplies the law on stated facts. Together they remove `{python} r.excluded_output_phrase` in `{python} r.excluded_output_households_phrase`, and of the `{python} r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count_fmt` annotated rows on those outputs, `{python} f"{r.excluded_descriptive_row_count:,}"` carry one of these classes as description rather than as a scored class and the rest are answers that never parsed. A scored reference also follows from law published before the references were frozen on 2026-07-03. USDA published the FY2027 SNAP cost-of-living figures on 2026-08-21, after the freeze and after most rows were answered, so grading any model on them would score it against law it could not have seen; SNAP's October to December months therefore hold the FY2026 figures, and the publication conventions described above apply the same rule to every projected amount. Every model is therefore scored on `{python} r.scored_outputs_per_model_fmt` of its `{python} r.total_outputs_per_model_fmt` requested outputs. The exclusion record (`reference_exclusions.json`) travels with the frozen run and the manifest pins it. No scored row remains classified as a prompt ambiguity, unresolved reference issue, or needs-review item, and zero annotated rows carry a standing reference-suspect flag. The audit pipeline is model-assisted, with developer adjudication of each reference-suspect or prompt-ambiguity flag rather than independent external validation; this snapshot records `{python} r.audit_adjudicated_case_phrase` of developer adjudication, kept beside the annotations with the judge's verdict and the reasoning. Three judge models produced the verdicts, and all are board rows: GPT-5.6 Sol, called through the Codex CLI, judged the cases whose verdicts predate the September 2026 additions; Claude Opus 5, called through the Claude Code CLI, judged the `{python} r.audit_opus_judged_case_count_fmt` cases the September 5 additions joined that no later judge re-judged; and Claude Opus 5.5 judged the cases the September 22, September 29 and September 30 additions joined or a reference revision changed (`{python} r.audit_opus55_judged_case_count_fmt` of `{python} r.audit_case_count_fmt` cases), its own row's cases included. Each verdict is recorded in a per-case provenance sidecar in the audit tree. Judge verdicts classify misses after scoring and change no score, and every reference flag a judge raised is settled by the developer adjudication above. The unlisted inputs behind the unlisted-input exclusions are the SSI disability criterion (`meets_ssi_disability_criteria`), false for every person in the certified June 2026 microdata build; months of SSDI receipt (`months_receiving_social_security_disability`), never carried by the data and integer-typed, which the prompt builder does not expose; weekly hours worked (`weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr`), which policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` defaulted to 40 where the prompt treats unlisted numbers as zero; whether survivor benefits other than Social Security are a pension or annuity, which the prompt does not say and which decides both their taxability and whether they count toward Wisconsin's homestead credit income; who paid for the coverage behind listed employment disability benefits, which decides whether they are taxable; whether listed home mortgage interest is on the home the household occupies, which decides whether SNAP counts it as a shelter cost; whether an adult tax dependent is the claiming filers' child, which decides whose income counts in that dependent's Medicaid household; whether the tax behind a listed state and local tax refund reduced federal tax in the year the household paid it, which decides how much of the refund is income; the state income tax a household withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part and which policyengine-us estimates from federal adjusted gross income; Medicare enrollment and a Part B premium, which policyengine-us assumes for every Medicare-eligible person and counts as a medical expense; whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax; and whether listed interest comes from a Massachusetts bank deposit, which moves only an output already recorded as an engine-defect exclusion. One definition was also open: the output definition of federal income tax before refundable credits does not say whether it includes the net investment income tax, which the reference adds and Form 1040 reports after its line for tax after nonrefundable credits, so the outputs that tax moves are excluded as well. The prompt lists a general `is disabled` fact and never a program-specific determination (@sec-disability). Every exclusion but the California Medicaid output was derived mechanically rather than from which models missed: each is an output that a sweep of every reference, under an alternative reading or an engine defect's sandbox fix, moved on policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` or, for the state and local tax refund reading and the readings of the `{python} r.review_date` review, on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. On `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version`, PolicyBench excluded every output an alternative reading of the September 22 audit moved and every output a defect not fixed upstream moved by more than a dollar, which is why the set includes three SNAP outputs that move through the elderly-or-disabled SNAP rules (in two of those households SSI itself stays at zero; in the third an aged member already receives SSI and the disabled member would add a second benefit). On `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, PolicyBench re-ran `{python} r.rerun_sweep_september_22_count_word` of those sweeps (the IRA deduction limit fix, the net investment income tax definition, and the readings for mortgage residence and 40 unlisted weekly hours) and ran a new one for the state and local tax refund reading. Beyond the one-dollar exact-match tolerance, the new sweep moves `{python} r.rerun_sweep_new_excluded_count_word` previously scored federal income tax outputs, and PolicyBench excluded them. Set against the same `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` calculation without its fix or reading, no sweep moves a scored output by more than the tolerance, and `{python} r.rerun_sweep_scored_within_tolerance_count_word` scored outputs move by less. PolicyBench did not re-run the other sweeps on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`. On `{python} r.policyengine_us_version`, the California Medicaid output stays at 1 under either reading of SSI's disability criterion, because the engine's Working Disabled Program test reads the general flag in its place. PolicyBench found that output when it re-reviewed the household's excluded SNAP output, and excluded it because the program itself requires SSI's definition of disability. ```{python} #| label: tbl-reference-review @@ -1256,6 +1260,7 @@ PolicyBench is not a substitute for a production tax-and-benefit calculator. Sev - the annotations cover the `{python} r.audit_annotated_row_count_fmt`-row legacy-threshold audit universe, including `{python} r.annotated_exact_miss_count_fmt` exact-match misses and `{python} r.annotated_exact_hit_count_fmt` exact hits, but not `{python} r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count_fmt` additional rows with bounded score below 100; the review is developer-adjudicated and not an independent validation of each reference value - one frozen scenario encodes household inputs that do not match its prompt narrative (a South Carolina household whose prompt implies a qualifying disability the inputs omit), and two input-semantics conventions (disability, which the prompt states as one general fact where each program applies its own determination, and adult tax-dependent relationships) are under-specified in ways a scheduled scenario refresh will address (@sec-disability); outputs whose reference moves under the other reading of either convention are excluded, while the mis-encoded scenario's cells score models against its encoded inputs - the reference engine carries known defects: `{python} r.engine_defect_exclusion_count` outputs, recorded as engine-defect exclusions, rest on `{python} r.engine_defect_root_cause_count` root causes that the audit found in policyengine-us `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` and that `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` does not fix, and are excluded until a reference version built on a fixed engine restores them; the judge that finds defects reviews only the cases a new model joins, the engine-upgrade review covered only the outputs the upgrade moved, and on `{python} r.policyengine_us_version` PolicyBench re-ran `{python} r.rerun_sweep_september_22_count_word` of the September 22 alternative-reading and defect sweeps rather than all of them, so defects that no reviewed case, move or re-run sweep exposes can remain +- the `{python} r.review_date` review of release dashboard-data-20260930 found `{python} r.review_new_exclusion_count_word` scored references that rested on inputs the prompt never states and that no judge had flagged, so other such references can remain scored: the exclusions cover the inputs the audits found - the references were frozen on 2026-07-03 for tax year 2026, so amounts published later reach the benchmark only through a stated convention: where policyengine-us projected a 2026 amount, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, failing that, the last one published (SNAP's FY2026 figures rather than USDA's FY2027 figures of 2026-08-21; California's 2025 indexed amounts; the IRS's 2025 sales tax tables), so a model that knew later law is scored against the earlier law, and the projection audit sourced only the amounts whose projection moved an output; law published before the freeze reaches a reference only once policyengine-us encodes it, and policyengine-us encoded New Jersey's 2026 child tax credit schedule and Arizona's SNAP categorical eligibility limit only after `{python} r.previous_policyengine_us_version` - benchmark success should not be interpreted as policy-advice readiness diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json b/paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json index 97b18dde..7a1aa643 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "audit_annotation_artifacts": { "developer_adjudications": { "by_judge_verdict": { - "llm_error": 59, + "llm_error": 67, "reference_data_issue_fixed": 1, "reference_engine_defect": 3, "reference_model_issue_fixed": 6 @@ -11,9 +11,9 @@ "affirmed": 5, "engine_defect": 28, "regenerated": 6, - "unlisted_input": 20 + "unlisted_input": 28 }, - "cases": 69, + "cases": 77, "file": "us_adjudications.json", "judge_flagged_by_reference_verdict": { "affirmed": 5, @@ -24,10 +24,10 @@ "note": "Judge verdicts outside the final classes (llm_error, parse_contract_failure) are resolved by a recorded developer adjudication that keeps the judge's verdict and reasoning beside the adjudicated class; applied to the bundle before export so the published payload and the frozen annotations agree. Every case the judge flagged reference-suspect carries a reference verdict (affirmed, regenerated, engine_defect, unlisted_input, later_law) that clears the flag; judge_reference_suspect records which entries the judge flagged." }, "files": { - "us_adjudications.json": "42d6a90fe402b6dc8a37422999ea05cd0e481a5ead690ee4045f649d682270c6", - "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": "3b27bfa643a5725935e90bea39f2584dc507572418a8e1474e981b841078d3ad", - "us_case_notes.csv": "2bef75c043ec08338038276e018f300ed86fcb937c44ee26d0daadb58d7f2c08", - "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": "6cccc5586815f2ecc4f1b527e79e141f858d0e75cc30b3a867d107909cbb38c4" + "us_adjudications.json": "38145030badfc6aa3fad6289ccc6aa940e523d3c4a8dd70d9d4dbe104644ecf1", + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": "155128bb8951a22a99eb9f632395fc1ea344d890ab6f4c7e467747d1599b700c", + "us_case_notes.csv": "660d0da57ffc08d1a99f35efdbfdc62373ce1055b58c3bc933c9f2d082106ebf", + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": "18787448808ec4fdbfbe092d385e6ad7329d4d7d919658f1bcc743f63b53afbe" }, "judge_provenance": { "by_judge": { @@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ }, "committed_snapshot_artifacts": { "model_serving_config.json": "019e0b9f2987102b49f82b238ca30568cf403c6931444742f4a975a471d1da15", - "us_impact_summary_by_model.csv": "e6e034adee408cc798897bc0825ace9740055ab20e528ce842bd06e2c81e0922", + "us_impact_summary_by_model.csv": "bc9162a6a1a5f7e6c40bba31935d172b4338ad84a4d7a92e95c18fd84c03864a", "us_reference_outputs.csv": "e8bbba8fd3e90f78e7c0e83df06227bc1c94563e92f7405fe12be853a30b2466", "us_scenarios.csv": "71b16212f0c0b3e5d13d8694ce57e362c23248665806c4d6dea7b23ef472858a" }, @@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ "files": [ { "path": "runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json.gz", - "sha256": "1e029aaa87d1dfbd2ceee88419599a919dd7c9d4aba78a308ec48d008d54ae18" + "sha256": "b1da3eae058c1a511f5579bc8235c822cf6862e33caf4840004bd0cf0f34c41d" } ], "household_dataset": { @@ -87,14 +87,14 @@ }, "live_dashboard_artifact": { "asset": "dashboard-data.json", - "bytes": 126109700, + "bytes": 127225036, "derivation": "At freeze time the live artifact equals the frozen published_dashboard_artifact: the combined export of the source-run data.json listed under source_run_artifacts. Annotation-class republishes may advance this entry ahead of the frozen pin without changing any score.", - "sha256": "d1cae7456cf91ab6fa04644a4d5d570e359522386a7c52f9645d5923bfc11258", - "tag": "dashboard-data-20260930", - "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20260930/dashboard-data.json" + "sha256": "aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462", + "tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20261006/dashboard-data.json" }, "live_dashboard_note": "The live dashboard payload is a published release asset; the committed pointer app/src/data.artifact.json must reference the artifact pinned under live_dashboard_artifact. The separate published_dashboard_artifact freezes the combined export of the source run data.json files listed under source_run_artifacts. A later publication may advance the live entry without changing the frozen pin.", - "model_response_date": "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30", + "model_response_date": "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29", "policy_period": { "us": "tax year 2026" }, @@ -105,10 +105,10 @@ }, "published_dashboard_artifact": { "asset": "dashboard-data.json", - "bytes": 126109700, - "sha256": "d1cae7456cf91ab6fa04644a4d5d570e359522386a7c52f9645d5923bfc11258", - "tag": "dashboard-data-20260930", - "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20260930/dashboard-data.json" + "bytes": 127225036, + "sha256": "aa34e5c9ea926848dc7af460a98f17021bc42dae54a8015c9988a85e79a5d462", + "tag": "dashboard-data-20261006", + "url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/dashboard-data-20261006/dashboard-data.json" }, "reference_exclusions": { "by_engine_defect_root_cause": { @@ -127,22 +127,26 @@ "r32_wi_capital_gain_distributions": 1 }, "by_unlisted_input": { + "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either": 1, "meets_ssi_disability_criteria": 7, "months_receiving_social_security_disability": 5, "source of survivor_benefits (pension or annuity, or another survivor payment) and taxability of survivor_benefits": 1, + "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set": 2, + "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either": 1, "taxability of survivor_benefits": 1, "the relationship of an adult tax dependent to the filers who claim them": 3, "weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr": 1, "weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr and whether the listed home mortgage interest is on the home the SNAP household occupies": 1, "whether federal income tax before refundable credits includes the net investment income tax, which the output's definition does not say": 1, + "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax": 4, "whether the listed home mortgage interest is on the home the SNAP household occupies": 1, "whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom)": 3, "who paid for the coverage behind listed employment disability benefits, which decides whether they are taxable": 4 }, "file": "reference_exclusions.json", "note": "Outputs are removed from scoring for every model, symmetrically, when the reference depends on an input or definition the prompt never states (a careful reader could take the stated facts either way), or when the engine that produced the reference misapplies the law on facts the prompt states. Their rows stay in the payload with scored=false. An unlisted-input entry records the alternative reading and the reference under both readings; an engine-defect entry records the root cause, the law, the upstream issue, and the corrected value computed with the same engine version and a sandbox fix.", - "outputs": 56, - "scored_outputs_per_model": 1928 + "outputs": 64, + "scored_outputs_per_model": 1920 }, "reference_output_refresh": { "date": "2026-09-29", @@ -161,12 +165,12 @@ "rendered_paper_artifacts": { "pdf": { "path": "app/public/paper/policybench.pdf", - "sha256": "87f78f83e929fd2755945cb1283cb2cddffc4a4f677c9072a8773a95969512cf" + "sha256": "2cffc69cffdee871b9ee16c257f539a13669379492252d2869466f8192770ff4" }, "web": { "files": { - "figures/positive_zero_scatter.png": "ee8a07e71a18f7756062b74a995ce9eeae045a379ffb3842c107ea501aec246f", - "index.html": "bad4b3c0eb58047b4578b4e4ff3f702826096ceeac36fca6ed9b0b985cedfe9a", + "figures/positive_zero_scatter.png": "ffa8ccdf1648e1b897744c6988e6c398898756823a2d07b12f90075f7c5ad656", + "index.html": "c6dfba0c5718cb3cca026e1b2b61dfd4ed71daca5e4cad33480ed6b207f48e2c", "pe-tokens.css": "8f24d8da26f583c8ffddffcdcd172b6d52cbecfec20eda55bd39d7aa829f41d8", "policybench-theme.css": "0e12c5fd615558259e5bce0167a38424e54f9ceb280666c4afd660d759cd1cb9", "site_libs/clipboard/clipboard.min.js": "e17a1d816e13c0826e0ed7febfabc3277f45571234bde0bf9120829a7169edc9", @@ -188,11 +192,11 @@ }, "reproducibility_notes": [ "The top-level scenario, reference-output, and impact-summary CSVs are byte-identical to the corresponding compact source-run artifacts copied under paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/.", - "Model responses were collected in waves between June 12 and September 30, 2026, as models were added to the board; each model's full 100-household run is a single consistent wave. PolicyBench computes each scored reference output with policyengine_us.Simulation from policyengine-us 2.15.17, using the household's own listed inputs, the nine publication conventions, the Maryland output-scope adapter and the scenario builder's stated-hours alias, as the reference sidecar's engine_upgrade revision pins them (fix_modules, builder); policyengine.py 6.1.2 is recorded for provenance only. The households were drawn from the certified PolicyEngine US populace dataset (populace-us-2024-5da5a95-20260611, populace_us_2024), as scenarios.csv.meta.json records (household_dataset); the reference_output_refresh dataset fields name the reference runtime's default dataset, which reference computation does not read.", + "Model responses were collected in waves between June 12 and September 29, 2026, as models were added to the board; each model's full 100-household run is a single consistent wave. PolicyBench computes each scored reference output with policyengine_us.Simulation from policyengine-us 2.15.17, using the household's own listed inputs, the nine publication conventions, the Maryland output-scope adapter and the scenario builder's stated-hours alias, as the reference sidecar's engine_upgrade revision pins them (fix_modules, builder); policyengine.py 6.1.2 is recorded for provenance only. The households were drawn from the certified PolicyEngine US populace dataset (populace-us-2024-5da5a95-20260611, populace_us_2024), as scenarios.csv.meta.json records (household_dataset); the reference_output_refresh dataset fields name the reference runtime's default dataset, which reference computation does not read.", "Canonical prediction files include parser recovery. Later waves ran under the resumable supervised runner, which retries failed or timed-out scenarios in bounded rounds; every model's canonical file covers all 100 households.", "Raw provider responses are retained in the compressed source-run predictions.csv.gz file wherever the transport exposed them; rows served through the Anthropic batch adapter (Claude Fable 5) and 64 Kimi K3 parse failures carry no raw payload. The separate LiteLLM cache remains local-only because it is a generated request cache, not the canonical snapshot artifact.", "The frozen scenarios.csv source_dataset column carries a stale enhanced_cps_2024 label from the pre-#77 scenario generator; the run metadata (scenarios.csv.meta.json) records the populace_us_2024 build actually loaded.", - "Model APIs and upstream model aliases may change after the recorded 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30 response window, so exact reruns can diverge even with the committed household inputs, reference outputs, parsed dashboard export, and analysis summaries." + "Model APIs and upstream model aliases may change after the recorded 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29 response window, so exact reruns can diverge even with the committed household inputs, reference outputs, parsed dashboard export, and analysis summaries." ], "response_retry_artifacts": { "files": {}, @@ -219,15 +223,15 @@ "note": "Compact copies of run outputs used to verify this snapshot. The run data.json retains parsed scenario predictions, explanations, summaries, heatmaps, and PolicyEngine runtime metadata used by the dashboard. predictions.csv.gz is a deterministic gzip of the run's raw provider responses.", "us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace": { "files": { - "analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv": "e6e034adee408cc798897bc0825ace9740055ab20e528ce842bd06e2c81e0922", - "analysis/metrics.csv": "8b97a753a0775cd79ec45399ddaa7b93bcf4ffd4acd4ccd076e10994ecbfd8b1", - "analysis/report.md": "85e9456b34b32c08f980360639e2b8657c0d7e1b6aff536d536ee3912523d61f", - "analysis/summary_by_model.csv": "fe929fc5d4c01f74c4a199a68701e92001a64eee84b83131eaa22ef1d4ffb851", - "analysis/summary_by_variable.csv": "93eaedd458859fdc0f36b63b97c737615348628216aead83023e30f901629399", + "analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv": "bc9162a6a1a5f7e6c40bba31935d172b4338ad84a4d7a92e95c18fd84c03864a", + "analysis/metrics.csv": "8d6dbac816ccccb0741952fb9d7e249381adbdcaf23b4cafb72652021626a8bb", + "analysis/report.md": "afc35eae2027e13ab18b45d6b436648204d4b7b36697d7e0ddf1d2c2fd13d258", + "analysis/summary_by_model.csv": "1b7640f3c0c7e7376c1bed0567dcc034866822a06e998658f4595ef74e5acabf", + "analysis/summary_by_variable.csv": "39b9c2636ee59456905d65a8a43d7b7c511fa584875941f6f2dbcad54085ff46", "analysis/usage_summary.csv": "6d2f6338af5eb9db19dbfb0f1ba37363387b3280b85ae64feaa8dba2e2ccf9db", - "data.json.gz": "1e029aaa87d1dfbd2ceee88419599a919dd7c9d4aba78a308ec48d008d54ae18", + "data.json.gz": "b1da3eae058c1a511f5579bc8235c822cf6862e33caf4840004bd0cf0f34c41d", "predictions.csv.gz": "ca2c4c48c7fd3e680c9c61a7380ecfcb60ce95f913c5c363762e023949d8ad12", - "reference_exclusions.json": "bf4e6a249aeee01d0b71f5834ef7a35c4bab2266d2c59d0e81b12a0da44281c2", + "reference_exclusions.json": "92741dfd047298eacb79a0dadeb7e4965e3c6f986beab0341b12ff8f5b023815", "reference_outputs.csv": "e8bbba8fd3e90f78e7c0e83df06227bc1c94563e92f7405fe12be853a30b2466", "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json": "816fef53c452d8520a321bc12bc29b28da1e7956a06818e5ec13d7fc7b371a4b", "scenarios.csv": "71b16212f0c0b3e5d13d8694ce57e362c23248665806c4d6dea7b23ef472858a", diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv index d34b2b5b..d7a013c2 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv @@ -1,47 +1,47 @@ model,mean_impact_score,mean_household_score,mean_household_coverage,households,total_variables,parsed_variables,floor_share -gpt-6-astra,0.9674395301873611,0.978257782717636,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6-sol,0.9662824005912722,0.9823887231923742,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6-luna,0.9658376159373622,0.9773386229254812,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-5.5,0.9608671065690544,0.9823954326352231,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6.1-sol,0.9586945574651387,0.9752733926090379,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-sol,0.9581475169972634,0.9762335155147531,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-5.5,0.9580535920873353,0.9730704556439665,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-fable-5.1,0.9555813124174095,0.9779033840407823,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.7,0.9531030169930793,0.9758195364701391,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -inkling,0.95278940419871,0.9708083462322512,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.5,0.9444535880318884,0.9659348038436416,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,0.9437394502936982,0.9674174501414599,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-terra,0.9423390142779876,0.9651008738219248,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.8-flash,0.9395394036327269,0.9753939876195191,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.6,0.935512292170297,0.9706379118326355,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.6-flash,0.9340484471155557,0.9707033409108929,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -ox-alpha,0.9329622083651122,0.9639201283365196,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -kimi-k3,0.9312389646048008,0.9468695137686975,0.97,100,1928,1870,0.3 -grok-4.5,0.9248152464910463,0.9634117776809533,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-pro-0813,0.9245585396764721,0.966361343016232,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-luna,0.9221866400950565,0.9594239447421039,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-flash-0731,0.9187089252487097,0.9546492938053259,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3-flash-preview,0.9170555704087302,0.9608133948736268,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-4.6,0.9147170663321406,0.9450085166651927,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-4.7,0.9138626894667351,0.9333394692464237,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-fable-5,0.9118097137275345,0.9538040486732181,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-5,0.9093403745672698,0.9565726626978903,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.7-flash,0.9068894551658637,0.9637007836479945,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-build-0.1,0.9035771268657874,0.9490575162370398,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.1-pro-preview,0.8996459348257337,0.9613824023677643,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-pro,0.8939788090152366,0.9531021316162993,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.5-flash,0.892262363142274,0.9566317304583035,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -glm-5.3,0.8870442747598982,0.9269952358769811,0.97,100,1928,1857,0.3 -claude-opus-4.8,0.8805442215879067,0.9191835487991205,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-5,0.8639047411962291,0.9156874253444743,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,0.8621157646423028,0.9399938349552724,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -qwen-3.7-max,0.8542922488394893,0.9254172874391244,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.3,0.8535754470989819,0.94337639429603,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -glm-5.2,0.8468008249398641,0.8985638347071989,0.9430477571052661,100,1928,1795,0.3 -qwen3.8-max,0.8163971792504239,0.906206350579505,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.5-flash-lite,0.8140072027414716,0.9406660914684142,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-haiku-4.5,0.7958926936620644,0.9088133283583146,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.4-mini,0.7565923451264394,0.9024786162568723,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -minimax-m3,0.7364968916060559,0.915496790900971,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.4-nano,0.6872355186399137,0.8911936267908885,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -kimi-k2.6,0.5816850782720341,0.775441245816979,0.7944015327506267,100,1928,1538,0.3 +gpt-6-astra,0.9683122444817193,0.9784738250614189,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6-sol,0.9667129921990232,0.9825416199504653,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6-luna,0.9664167571502716,0.977394792016256,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-5.5,0.962246515529886,0.982664785613371,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-sol,0.9599111614346824,0.9765950579493266,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6.1-sol,0.9594811057246667,0.975488445843518,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-5.5,0.9593949353595599,0.9733090827566719,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-fable-5.1,0.9569037993263287,0.9780947033412107,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.7,0.9544396463560192,0.9761065254261345,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +inkling,0.9537243518627281,0.9708950810157603,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.5,0.9463990239340224,0.9662756610360458,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,0.9449297542963264,0.9677712793442468,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-terra,0.9428227924598422,0.9653030686475066,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.8-flash,0.9413625215070209,0.9757756765309048,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.6,0.9370631371759138,0.9709023505552119,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.6-flash,0.9353602488202646,0.9710758545154309,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +ox-alpha,0.9349263306800009,0.9645184800680184,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +kimi-k3,0.9321859170038987,0.947074103380015,0.97,100,1920,1862,0.3 +grok-4.5,0.9265179738707723,0.9637656553313277,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,0.92592710415014,0.9666373591127111,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-luna,0.9214893430494332,0.9595527347680398,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3-flash-preview,0.9194570538721496,0.9616863739278441,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,0.9189428784905118,0.9549362454617714,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-4.7,0.9178204428076171,0.9341214404196417,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-4.6,0.9162129440743614,0.9452099117398467,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-fable-5,0.9137887992654609,0.9541658659499054,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-5,0.9117042199103389,0.9569245656983695,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.7-flash,0.9080053412243946,0.9640672785413511,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-build-0.1,0.907229168647409,0.9495641986927762,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,0.9015422572930285,0.96182457021108,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-pro,0.894759815215543,0.9531689498921042,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.5-flash,0.8945050366123243,0.9571534285510584,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +glm-5.3,0.8897481095502663,0.9276676213475469,0.97,100,1920,1849,0.3 +claude-opus-4.8,0.8826928093313342,0.9195533132045565,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-5,0.8666788054918853,0.9162508180749187,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,0.8635748475506705,0.940345176887288,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +qwen-3.7-max,0.8582890324943854,0.9260164229773913,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.3,0.8557494611738747,0.9440812980726867,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +glm-5.2,0.8465447008531164,0.8995325933970066,0.9433301746876838,100,1920,1788,0.3 +qwen3.8-max,0.822354297921981,0.9071986559772072,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,0.8157005424440896,0.9412320459816107,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-haiku-4.5,0.7972978664052773,0.9093026578365233,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.4-mini,0.7646496681088202,0.9044299489482875,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +minimax-m3,0.7486300831203856,0.9185494731869339,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.4-nano,0.6976458164890331,0.8943748089883199,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +kimi-k2.6,0.5929836623884213,0.7777325674444523,0.796733767182861,100,1920,1537,0.3 diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/metrics.csv b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/metrics.csv index 3389ea4f..f2c42fa4 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/metrics.csv +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/metrics.csv @@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ model,variable,n,n_parsed,coverage,mae,mape,accuracy,exact,within_1pct,within_5pct,within_10pct,threshold_score,score -claude-fable-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,609.0313333650914,0.4794336645106638,,0.5853658536585366,0.5975609756097561,0.6463414634146342,0.7073170731707317,0.6341463414634145,0.8653258079822098 +claude-fable-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,563.4911491297469,0.5140834591717652,,0.6075949367088608,0.620253164556962,0.6708860759493671,0.7215189873417721,0.6550632911392404,0.8648211849820133 claude-fable-5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,73.61601506447306,0.2161314886582061,,0.8775510204081632,0.9081632653061225,0.9285714285714286,0.9285714285714286,0.9107142857142858,0.945128098211834 claude-fable-5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 claude-fable-5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-fable-5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,239.20946858723957,0.026765186750973252,,0.8282828282828283,0.8282828282828283,0.898989898989899,0.9494949494949495,0.8762626262626262,0.9829676084311989 +claude-fable-5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,233.38396589740955,0.024829245574934294,,0.8631578947368421,0.8631578947368421,0.9263157894736842,0.9473684210526315,0.9,0.9845797316955671 claude-fable-5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.011299435028248588,,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514 claude-fable-5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-fable-5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -14,14 +14,14 @@ claude-fable-5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0 claude-fable-5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.48554270019532,0.0007099896483805804,,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9850000000000001,0.9899432008281295 claude-fable-5,snap,93,93,1.0,262.7204301075269,0.5753977027817445,,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8494623655913979,0.8709677419354839,0.8494623655913979,0.8873099985358851 claude-fable-5,ssi,97,97,1.0,123.63505154639175,0.19494688610780198,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9742268041237113,0.9856711982245815 -claude-fable-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,219.88635216091956,0.40420537130478595,,0.627906976744186,0.6395348837209303,0.6976744186046512,0.7209302325581395,0.6715116279069767,0.8296060324047224 +claude-fable-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,211.68330901538627,0.4091439470844147,,0.6352941176470588,0.6470588235294118,0.7058823529411765,0.7294117647058823,0.6794117647058824,0.8306718289470787 claude-fable-5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,67.9308757246757,0.7076828863448931,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8469387755102041,0.8341836734693878,0.8825146752432662 claude-fable-5,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-fable-5.1,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,300.2469381192835,0.15374949222604853,,0.7926829268292683,0.8292682926829268,0.9024390243902439,0.9024390243902439,0.8567073170731707,0.9390642445389619 +claude-fable-5.1,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,258.39511842365505,0.15647206674704403,,0.8227848101265823,0.8481012658227848,0.9113924050632911,0.9113924050632911,0.8734177215189873,0.9415204647939512 claude-fable-5.1,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,1.9756582703882253,0.005376964556959538,,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,1.0,0.9923469387755102,0.9993964631619738 claude-fable-5.1,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-fable-5.1,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-fable-5.1,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,111.228219376381,0.014140493178512596,,0.8888888888888888,0.9090909090909091,0.9090909090909091,0.9595959595959596,0.9166666666666667,0.9910015043409465 +claude-fable-5.1,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,101.24076935135692,0.011367186413134295,,0.9263157894736842,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9578947368421052,0.9447368421052631,0.9929403789644745 claude-fable-5.1,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.02824858757062147,,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786 claude-fable-5.1,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-fable-5.1,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -32,14 +32,14 @@ claude-fable-5.1,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99 claude-fable-5.1,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 claude-fable-5.1,snap,93,93,1.0,58.35526881720429,0.3985246550949543,,0.8817204301075269,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.9139784946236559,0.9335395643415655 claude-fable-5.1,ssi,97,97,1.0,102.61855670103093,0.0,,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846 -claude-fable-5.1,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,70.51427605717682,0.10463357054826823,,0.7325581395348837,0.7906976744186046,0.872093023255814,0.9069767441860465,0.8255813953488371,0.9402441032971158 +claude-fable-5.1,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,71.22791482880537,0.1081449221186077,,0.7411764705882353,0.788235294117647,0.8705882352941177,0.9058823529411765,0.8264705882352941,0.939574085394828 claude-fable-5.1,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,22.977769108013234,0.35719178258518913,,0.9183673469387755,0.9183673469387755,0.9183673469387755,0.9285714285714286,0.9209183673469388,0.9457682117915495 claude-fable-5.1,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-haiku-4.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1173.3247546684452,0.6174508141046803,,0.524390243902439,0.5365853658536586,0.5975609756097561,0.6219512195121951,0.5701219512195123,0.7427641153355573 +claude-haiku-4.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1172.859004153481,0.6717639782534175,,0.5443037974683544,0.5569620253164557,0.5949367088607594,0.620253164556962,0.5791139240506329,0.7351304026736567 claude-haiku-4.5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,678.9802872015506,0.6425826245005123,,0.7653061224489796,0.7653061224489796,0.7653061224489796,0.7653061224489796,0.7653061224489796,0.8054243992907588 claude-haiku-4.5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-haiku-4.5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,35.45,,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-haiku-4.5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,934.8121130741002,0.14353671231957388,,0.6565656565656566,0.7171717171717171,0.7575757575757576,0.8383838383838383,0.7424242424242424,0.9048599575883508 +claude-haiku-4.5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,961.6034026521379,0.14975173591769084,,0.6842105263157895,0.7473684210526316,0.7789473684210526,0.8315789473684211,0.7605263157894736,0.9030378553498539 claude-haiku-4.5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.096045197740113,,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887 claude-haiku-4.5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.13157894736842105,,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579 claude-haiku-4.5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -50,14 +50,14 @@ claude-haiku-4.5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.07,,0.93,0.93 claude-haiku-4.5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,74.96613400878907,0.0007522057448829237,,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.9325,0.9299398235404093 claude-haiku-4.5,snap,93,93,1.0,465.3333333333333,0.9093570110130051,,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8621328909336659 claude-haiku-4.5,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -claude-haiku-4.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,449.8351398607742,0.6790645695255925,,0.627906976744186,0.6395348837209303,0.6627906976744186,0.686046511627907,0.6540697674418604,0.749965383809873 +claude-haiku-4.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,413.7844353940627,0.6679978305437163,,0.6352941176470588,0.6470588235294118,0.6705882352941176,0.6941176470588235,0.6617647058823528,0.758788505972342 claude-haiku-4.5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,118.08073042363537,1.0,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449 claude-haiku-4.5,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-opus-4.7,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,788.6295433974848,0.632492412109637,,0.6097560975609756,0.6219512195121951,0.6463414634146342,0.6829268292682927,0.6402439024390244,0.8658825813535689 +claude-opus-4.7,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,661.971055429193,0.6648104124199187,,0.6329113924050633,0.6455696202531646,0.6708860759493671,0.7088607594936709,0.6645569620253164,0.8721264670595292 claude-opus-4.7,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,162.337958822445,0.2924270186642666,,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8469387755102041,0.8673469387755102,0.8443877551020409,0.8957479877009497 claude-opus-4.7,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 claude-opus-4.7,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-opus-4.7,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,118.3732028044113,0.014075612677708502,,0.8383838383838383,0.8585858585858586,0.9393939393939394,0.9595959595959596,0.898989898989899,0.9910427919323673 +claude-opus-4.7,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,98.31385734477797,0.010193264299454344,,0.8736842105263158,0.8947368421052632,0.968421052631579,0.968421052631579,0.9263157894736842,0.993669446382444 claude-opus-4.7,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.11864406779661017,,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898,0.8813559322033898 claude-opus-4.7,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-opus-4.7,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.13157894736842105,,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579 @@ -68,14 +68,14 @@ claude-opus-4.7,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99, claude-opus-4.7,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.022542163085938684,0.00020048201810881564,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999839614385513 claude-opus-4.7,snap,93,93,1.0,465.18279569892474,1.8454323762656035,,0.7741935483870968,0.7741935483870968,0.7741935483870968,0.7956989247311828,0.7795698924731183,0.8296632759580936 claude-opus-4.7,ssi,97,97,1.0,166.9278350515464,0.3306139867067448,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9828739384184175 -claude-opus-4.7,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,198.069614674546,0.2672699416986895,,0.6511627906976745,0.686046511627907,0.7325581395348837,0.8255813953488372,0.7238372093023256,0.8835104854539455 +claude-opus-4.7,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,180.86872755858477,0.2601958740816771,,0.6588235294117647,0.6941176470588235,0.7411764705882353,0.8352941176470589,0.7323529411764707,0.8876978782544869 claude-opus-4.7,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,77.61455355371747,4.132937401880446,,0.7653061224489796,0.7653061224489796,0.7755102040816326,0.7959183673469388,0.7755102040816326,0.8147258452245381 claude-opus-4.7,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-opus-4.8,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,919.4929080125762,0.8511261519272454,,0.573170731707317,0.6097560975609756,0.6585365853658537,0.7195121951219512,0.6402439024390243,0.8179498270666544 +claude-opus-4.8,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,838.9459985660601,0.9145477904016353,,0.5949367088607594,0.6329113924050633,0.6708860759493671,0.7341772151898734,0.6582278481012658,0.8184708035764722 claude-opus-4.8,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,198.6052529471261,0.3940920199472762,,0.8367346938775511,0.8367346938775511,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8469387755102041,0.8945406916385711 claude-opus-4.8,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.03,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97 claude-opus-4.8,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-opus-4.8,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,314.514625626381,0.032072418807635554,,0.8181818181818182,0.8484848484848485,0.8686868686868687,0.9191919191919192,0.8636363636363636,0.9795902789405955 +claude-opus-4.8,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,306.0336558645148,0.02971467298377289,,0.8526315789473684,0.8842105263157894,0.9052631578947369,0.9263157894736842,0.8921052631578947,0.98154562414692 claude-opus-4.8,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.12429378531073447,,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656,0.8757062146892656 claude-opus-4.8,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 claude-opus-4.8,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.13157894736842105,,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579 @@ -86,14 +86,14 @@ claude-opus-4.8,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.05,,0.95,0.95, claude-opus-4.8,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.022667846679689775,0.0001990587122224831,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999840753030221 claude-opus-4.8,snap,93,93,1.0,533.0860215053764,1.5275875662679301,,0.7634408602150538,0.7634408602150538,0.7634408602150538,0.7741935483870968,0.7661290322580645,0.8211884763998233 claude-opus-4.8,ssi,97,97,1.0,131.2164948453608,0.6589103291713961,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9864142200170846 -claude-opus-4.8,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,240.04871799712961,0.284835865809115,,0.6511627906976745,0.6511627906976745,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.6831395348837209,0.8657549305317039 +claude-opus-4.8,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,236.9921737327576,0.28975293526220036,,0.6588235294117647,0.6588235294117647,0.7058823529411765,0.7411764705882353,0.6911764705882353,0.8658489985576021 claude-opus-4.8,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,53.63291890767156,1.455666318564968,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8086734693877551,0.831563420488021 claude-opus-4.8,tanf,100,100,1.0,10.75041015625,0.17725445767969758,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.998227455423203 -claude-opus-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,666.7105921303354,0.5309223465039903,,0.5609756097560976,0.5609756097560976,0.6219512195121951,0.6829268292682927,0.6067073170731708,0.840076924328095 +claude-opus-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,551.3463212025316,0.5576880530290851,,0.5822784810126582,0.5822784810126582,0.6455696202531646,0.7088607594936709,0.629746835443038,0.843662505470099 claude-opus-5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,195.23770048180404,0.16099216947942677,,0.8469387755102041,0.8571428571428571,0.8775510204081632,0.8877551020408163,0.8673469387755102,0.9309090422012888 claude-opus-5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-opus-5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-opus-5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,139.61623675722063,0.015436618248772748,,0.8585858585858586,0.9090909090909091,0.9191919191919192,0.9595959595959596,0.9116161616161615,0.9901766974780536 +claude-opus-5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,130.7998611482319,0.012762023755829034,,0.8947368421052632,0.9473684210526315,0.9578947368421052,0.9578947368421052,0.9394736842105262,0.9920741115621695 claude-opus-5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.01694915254237288,,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272 claude-opus-5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-opus-5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -104,14 +104,14 @@ claude-opus-5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0. claude-opus-5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,54.23308532714844,0.0003572365859157118,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.9799714210731267 claude-opus-5,snap,93,93,1.0,246.79569892473117,1.2430147066149062,,0.7849462365591398,0.7849462365591398,0.7956989247311828,0.8279569892473119,0.7983870967741935,0.8638796646667334 claude-opus-5,ssi,97,97,1.0,129.7319587628866,0.2856273584768493,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.983801497763364 -claude-opus-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,132.5505235589937,0.2597295307946852,,0.6744186046511628,0.6744186046511628,0.7558139534883721,0.8372093023255814,0.7354651162790699,0.9093966753041797 +claude-opus-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,130.04105936005539,0.26529199878744375,,0.6823529411764706,0.6823529411764706,0.7647058823529411,0.8352941176470589,0.7411764705882353,0.9094886121784015 claude-opus-5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,62.69297532159455,1.4088503474920302,,0.8163265306122449,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8367346938775511,0.8290816326530612,0.841661214370422 claude-opus-5,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-opus-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,305.7924935689786,0.16241021606028166,,0.8292682926829268,0.8658536585365854,0.9024390243902439,0.9024390243902439,0.875,0.9354732127052555 +claude-opus-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,268.9055683840981,0.1670578338164425,,0.8607594936708861,0.8860759493670886,0.9113924050632911,0.9113924050632911,0.8924050632911392,0.9373665561970987 claude-opus-5.5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,0.003099128567447277,2.48862942154661e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.999997206640445 claude-opus-5.5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-opus-5.5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-opus-5.5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,23.89883875374844,0.0047634325182585304,,0.9292929292929293,0.9494949494949495,0.9494949494949495,1.0,0.9570707070707071,0.9969687247611082 +claude-opus-5.5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,10.23436217619245,0.00135439282676131,,0.968421052631579,0.9894736842105263,0.9894736842105263,1.0,0.9868421052631579,0.9991588507707484 claude-opus-5.5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.03954802259887006,,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113 claude-opus-5.5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-opus-5.5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -122,14 +122,14 @@ claude-opus-5.5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99, claude-opus-5.5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0015256591796855901,1.8684773766991133e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999985052180986 claude-opus-5.5,snap,93,93,1.0,85.5294623655914,0.5025349792380832,,0.8924731182795699,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.9086021505376344,0.9318439754231114 claude-opus-5.5,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-opus-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,66.77772406090139,0.12146610240211328,,0.8023255813953488,0.8372093023255814,0.8837209302325582,0.9186046511627907,0.8604651162790697,0.9460001968364722 +claude-opus-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,67.08857986786788,0.12525860302735892,,0.8117647058823529,0.8470588235294118,0.8823529411764706,0.9176470588235294,0.8647058823529411,0.9455000060259598 claude-opus-5.5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,15.400220080589763,0.28047062896970437,,0.8979591836734694,0.8979591836734694,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.9056122448979591,0.9484849865157685 claude-opus-5.5,tanf,100,100,1.0,0.55041015625,0.009075249439740776,,0.99,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9975,0.9999092475056025 -claude-sonnet-4.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,410.1034650104802,0.43777181793870706,,0.5487804878048781,0.573170731707317,0.7439024390243902,0.7926829268292683,0.6646341463414634,0.8950328317002604 +claude-sonnet-4.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,364.404306146163,0.4699172731885661,,0.569620253164557,0.5949367088607594,0.7721518987341772,0.7974683544303798,0.6835443037974684,0.8950569435505298 claude-sonnet-4.6,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,122.44227164132255,0.1746156152687253,,0.8979591836734694,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.9387755102040817,0.9158163265306123,0.9497880431841226 claude-sonnet-4.6,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-sonnet-4.6,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-sonnet-4.6,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,49.095991630168825,0.006589828220731302,,0.8383838383838383,0.8787878787878788,0.9797979797979798,1.0,0.9242424242424242,0.9958064729504437 +claude-sonnet-4.6,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,46.291018528988445,0.004754896079615071,,0.8736842105263158,0.9052631578947369,1.0,1.0,0.9447368421052632,0.9970469592768706 claude-sonnet-4.6,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.10734463276836158,,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384,0.8926553672316384 claude-sonnet-4.6,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 claude-sonnet-4.6,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -140,14 +140,14 @@ claude-sonnet-4.6,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.9 claude-sonnet-4.6,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.44671838378906,0.00010697989103262154,,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9875,0.9899914416087173 claude-sonnet-4.6,snap,93,93,1.0,257.6774193548387,0.5978746457112838,,0.8172043010752689,0.8172043010752689,0.8387096774193549,0.8602150537634409,0.8333333333333334,0.8744471957173431 claude-sonnet-4.6,ssi,97,97,1.0,10.68041237113402,0.05230402529537605,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,1.0,0.9871134020618557,0.9989215664887551 -claude-sonnet-4.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,194.42291114075238,0.31717611179789446,,0.627906976744186,0.6511627906976745,0.7093023255813954,0.7558139534883721,0.686046511627907,0.8730296195273088 +claude-sonnet-4.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,184.57912163027595,0.3179950467965411,,0.6352941176470588,0.6588235294117647,0.7176470588235294,0.7647058823529411,0.6941176470588235,0.8749879326610083 claude-sonnet-4.6,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,62.84603654608435,0.9347312353332404,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8385187526938945 claude-sonnet-4.6,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-sonnet-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1235.6977032917302,1.0669475767508045,,0.5,0.5121951219512195,0.524390243902439,0.573170731707317,0.5274390243902439,0.7570716795537921 +claude-sonnet-5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1114.880089868473,1.1430488761750437,,0.5189873417721519,0.5316455696202531,0.5443037974683544,0.5949367088607594,0.5474683544303797,0.7585010148292651 claude-sonnet-5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,257.36857106734294,0.8007227080206903,,0.7959183673469388,0.7959183673469388,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8061224489795918,0.8579020748311923 claude-sonnet-5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 claude-sonnet-5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,38.309,,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -claude-sonnet-5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,212.25037481751104,0.023584098688381593,,0.7676767676767676,0.8686868686868687,0.9090909090909091,0.9393939393939394,0.8712121212121212,0.9849919371983026 +claude-sonnet-5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,196.62585765316612,0.020444894782595972,,0.8,0.9052631578947369,0.9368421052631579,0.9473684210526315,0.8973684210526315,0.9873026442929143 claude-sonnet-5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0847457627118644,,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356,0.9152542372881356 claude-sonnet-5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-sonnet-5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 @@ -158,14 +158,14 @@ claude-sonnet-5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-sonnet-5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,82.20191687011719,0.06053951590470468,,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.9651568387276237 claude-sonnet-5,snap,93,93,1.0,650.2150537634409,2.0402639067599613,,0.7419354838709677,0.7419354838709677,0.7419354838709677,0.7526881720430108,0.7446236559139785,0.7837982352557759 claude-sonnet-5,ssi,97,97,1.0,141.5257731958763,0.6684457728437233,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9862176129310573 -claude-sonnet-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,308.57630662585416,0.36401092716495426,,0.6162790697674418,0.627906976744186,0.6511627906976745,0.686046511627907,0.6453488372093024,0.8265078161052485 +claude-sonnet-5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,299.6872629446142,0.366121041319128,,0.6235294117647059,0.6352941176470588,0.6588235294117647,0.6941176470588235,0.6529411764705881,0.8280292917852385 claude-sonnet-5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,82.61251074440625,4.366205870595451,,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8137755102040817,0.8220544240805049 claude-sonnet-5,tanf,100,100,1.0,21.40958984375,0.35300469300628384,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9964699530699371 -claude-sonnet-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,152.49378632336126,0.1267096119922374,,0.8048780487804879,0.8292682926829268,0.8902439024390244,0.926829268292683,0.8628048780487805,0.9474618681983406 +claude-sonnet-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,105.9342520025712,0.12697013459710574,,0.8354430379746836,0.8481012658227848,0.9113924050632911,0.9367088607594937,0.8829113924050633,0.9501762762973383 claude-sonnet-5.5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,6.057284994319991,0.0020666673613282675,,0.9795918367346939,0.9795918367346939,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9846938775510204,0.9895639455002591 claude-sonnet-5.5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 claude-sonnet-5.5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-sonnet-5.5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,26.00660045276989,0.006205183231822571,,0.9292929292929293,0.9494949494949495,0.9494949494949495,0.98989898989899,0.9545454545454546,0.9960512470342947 +claude-sonnet-5.5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,12.62024015727796,0.0038158325055492027,,0.9578947368421052,0.9789473684210527,0.9789473684210527,0.9894736842105263,0.9763157894736842,0.9976301671807642 claude-sonnet-5.5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.03389830508474576,,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542 claude-sonnet-5.5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 claude-sonnet-5.5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -176,14 +176,14 @@ claude-sonnet-5.5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.9 claude-sonnet-5.5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.002925219726561318,2.0997990722224957e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9899983201607424 claude-sonnet-5.5,snap,93,93,1.0,132.10752688172042,0.5926619058930392,,0.8602150537634409,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.8924731182795699,0.9102035545906004 claude-sonnet-5.5,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -claude-sonnet-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,74.50006805220315,0.2587764044844357,,0.7209302325581395,0.7441860465116279,0.8488372093023255,0.8604651162790697,0.7936046511627906,0.9198460450664387 +claude-sonnet-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,73.5429514355379,0.26617039244015056,,0.7294117647058823,0.7529411764705882,0.8470588235294118,0.8588235294117647,0.7970588235294118,0.9194248309350876 claude-sonnet-5.5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,80.80052383636942,1.105303908488078,,0.7959183673469388,0.7959183673469388,0.7959183673469388,0.7959183673469388,0.7959183673469388,0.848005399455642 claude-sonnet-5.5,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -deepseek-v4-flash-0731,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,770.0108560403963,0.7426262693114861,,0.5609756097560976,0.573170731707317,0.7317073170731707,0.7317073170731707,0.649390243902439,0.8509498375409471 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,726.5595648734178,0.7993699540504275,,0.5822784810126582,0.5949367088607594,0.7468354430379747,0.7468354430379747,0.6677215189873418,0.8512241931567712 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,275.2400379040776,0.1366504809061787,,0.826530612244898,0.8571428571428571,0.8979591836734694,0.8979591836734694,0.8698979591836735,0.9030290276533881 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -deepseek-v4-flash-0731,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,268.86094281190816,0.0426397191701152,,0.797979797979798,0.8181818181818182,0.8686868686868687,0.9191919191919192,0.8510101010101011,0.9728656332553812 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,265.36413377364306,0.04176946472448779,,0.8315789473684211,0.8526315789473684,0.9052631578947369,0.9157894736842105,0.8763157894736842,0.974058964013213 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.01694915254237288,,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -194,14 +194,14 @@ deepseek-v4-flash-0731,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.9 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.44071120605469,0.00019954144430183585,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9799840366844559 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,snap,93,93,1.0,137.18494623655914,0.3493761853590002,,0.8279569892473119,0.8387096774193549,0.8924731182795699,0.9032258064516129,0.8655913978494624,0.9189044041971289 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.9896907216494846,0.004759119120710396,,0.979381443298969,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9948453608247423,0.9999018738325628 -deepseek-v4-flash-0731,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,269.01068571379017,0.43273931716104264,,0.5232558139534884,0.5581395348837209,0.5813953488372093,0.6162790697674418,0.5697674418604652,0.7295171117546718 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,263.4360469519671,0.4403720535623172,,0.5294117647058824,0.5647058823529412,0.5882352941176471,0.6235294117647059,0.5764705882352942,0.7288219008520689 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,82.26940176107445,0.8221637663529808,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8112244897959184,0.8403452641152473 deepseek-v4-flash-0731,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -deepseek-v4-pro,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,765.3589424542683,0.47986377209757336,,0.4878048780487805,0.5,0.6219512195121951,0.6829268292682927,0.5731707317073171,0.7933837505103175 +deepseek-v4-pro,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,705.1279662776899,0.5123312846761181,,0.5063291139240507,0.5189873417721519,0.6455696202531646,0.7088607594936709,0.5949367088607596,0.7910198223823275 deepseek-v4-pro,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,108.02676143724092,0.3154062599117203,,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.8979591836734694,0.9183673469387755,0.8903061224489796,0.933985011642562 deepseek-v4-pro,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 deepseek-v4-pro,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -deepseek-v4-pro,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,209.23108652442392,0.09159215170393993,,0.6868686868686869,0.7373737373737373,0.8383838383838383,0.8888888888888888,0.7878787878787878,0.9508343150842496 +deepseek-v4-pro,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,211.95588520250817,0.09656494296588437,,0.7052631578947368,0.7473684210526316,0.8421052631578947,0.8842105263157894,0.7947368421052632,0.9495323275337025 deepseek-v4-pro,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.01694915254237288,,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272 deepseek-v4-pro,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 deepseek-v4-pro,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -212,14 +212,14 @@ deepseek-v4-pro,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98, deepseek-v4-pro,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.42659978027344,1.906980687814305e-05,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9899984744154497 deepseek-v4-pro,snap,93,93,1.0,142.6658064516129,0.5539193918409281,,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8817204301075269,0.9032258064516129,0.8709677419354839,0.9118177194200853 deepseek-v4-pro,ssi,97,97,1.0,7.051546391752577,0.03606961075014709,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,1.0,0.9896907216494846,0.999256296685564 -deepseek-v4-pro,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,251.78893897278363,0.3804795997178542,,0.5697674418604651,0.5697674418604651,0.6511627906976745,0.686046511627907,0.6191860465116279,0.7982536836055245 +deepseek-v4-pro,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,254.3113384845958,0.393232743553543,,0.5764705882352941,0.5764705882352941,0.6470588235294118,0.6823529411764706,0.6205882352941177,0.7960053555124469 deepseek-v4-pro,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,77.93138592875732,0.784702024008234,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8214285714285714,0.8609095024121691 deepseek-v4-pro,tanf,100,100,1.0,5.62958984375,0.09282156496446835,,0.99,0.99,0.99,1.0,0.9924999999999999,0.9990717843503554 -deepseek-v4-pro-0813,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,901.4561799733232,0.6728676462222739,,0.5,0.5,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.5274390243902439,0.782773902448932 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,862.1072507911393,0.7219055784554342,,0.5189873417721519,0.5189873417721519,0.5569620253164557,0.569620253164557,0.5411392405063291,0.7808340131677376 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,83.4375667525311,0.28892672511029677,,0.9081632653061225,0.9285714285714286,0.9285714285714286,0.9489795918367347,0.9285714285714286,0.9675694492223136 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -deepseek-v4-pro-0813,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,163.88710116299717,0.04674190856032396,,0.797979797979798,0.8484848484848485,0.9191919191919192,0.9494949494949495,0.8787878787878788,0.9802326934658074 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,163.3633109837582,0.048518570794899844,,0.8315789473684211,0.8736842105263158,0.9157894736842105,0.9473684210526315,0.8921052631578946,0.9802650654264872 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -230,14 +230,14 @@ deepseek-v4-pro-0813,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1. deepseek-v4-pro-0813,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0045822998046855905,2.7091941169829102e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999978326447063 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,snap,93,93,1.0,90.04215053763441,0.412657687654936,,0.8279569892473119,0.8387096774193549,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.8682795698924731,0.9100586028009229 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,ssi,97,97,1.0,1.6082474226804124,0.0076697449040421615,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,1.0,1.0,0.9922680412371134,0.9998418609298135 -deepseek-v4-pro-0813,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,141.20354245434254,0.2371757692888958,,0.627906976744186,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.7906976744186046,0.7122093023255814,0.8675037243184849 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,142.79858390049657,0.24529904825068122,,0.6352941176470588,0.6941176470588235,0.7294117647058823,0.788235294117647,0.7117647058823529,0.8659637761269039 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,40.30240190307462,0.6197609478856888,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8290816326530612,0.8759622748781388 deepseek-v4-pro-0813,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,380.22547682450454,0.227581994538357,,0.6341463414634146,0.6585365853658537,0.7317073170731707,0.7560975609756098,0.6951219512195121,0.8766772952701026 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,342.60803992780853,0.23790061059837625,,0.6582278481012658,0.6708860759493671,0.7468354430379747,0.7721518987341772,0.7120253164556962,0.876587431619024 deepseek-v4.1-flash,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,97.08988818110251,0.1129619008852461,,0.8979591836734694,0.9387755102040817,0.9591836734693877,0.9591836734693877,0.9387755102040817,0.977116521329207 deepseek-v4.1-flash,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 deepseek-v4.1-flash,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,38.342086662523684,0.005261477684698107,,0.8888888888888888,0.9292929292929293,0.9797979797979798,0.98989898989899,0.946969696969697,0.9966517869279194 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,39.36758565481087,0.005532061389829545,,0.9052631578947369,0.9263157894736842,0.9789473684210527,0.9894736842105263,0.95,0.9965642987157902 deepseek-v4.1-flash,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.02824858757062147,,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786 deepseek-v4.1-flash,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 deepseek-v4.1-flash,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -248,14 +248,14 @@ deepseek-v4.1-flash,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0 deepseek-v4.1-flash,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 deepseek-v4.1-flash,snap,93,93,1.0,171.45505376344084,0.5203532952046377,,0.8494623655913979,0.8924731182795699,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.8870967741935484,0.9078885966190541 deepseek-v4.1-flash,ssi,97,97,1.0,11.268041237113403,0.057990420209935334,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9871134020618557,0.9988043212327848 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,90.22480290412902,0.12250724686018281,,0.6511627906976745,0.6744186046511628,0.7674418604651163,0.8488372093023255,0.7354651162790697,0.8874974720255174 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,76.04480081513348,0.11401921816618812,,0.6588235294117647,0.6823529411764706,0.7764705882352941,0.8588235294117647,0.7441176470588236,0.8905110902727122 deepseek-v4.1-flash,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,46.36871282052021,0.5478642572780168,,0.8367346938775511,0.8367346938775511,0.8469387755102041,0.8571428571428571,0.8443877551020409,0.8891677894795479 deepseek-v4.1-flash,tanf,100,100,1.0,18.224789843750003,0.300493208457008,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99699506791543 -gemini-3-flash-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,738.2186471036586,0.5734728739033849,,0.5365853658536586,0.5487804878048781,0.5853658536585366,0.5975609756097561,0.5670731707317074,0.7893089153594549 +gemini-3-flash-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,674.4463938884494,0.6128694955084341,,0.5569620253164557,0.569620253164557,0.6075949367088608,0.620253164556962,0.5886075949367089,0.7876260052079612 gemini-3-flash-preview,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,115.1862306555923,0.2283897327994623,,0.8571428571428571,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.9183673469387755,0.8801020408163265,0.9335480912163869 gemini-3-flash-preview,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3-flash-preview,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,82.772,,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 -gemini-3-flash-preview,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,224.35755023378317,0.08327194678978311,,0.6565656565656566,0.6767676767676768,0.7777777777777778,0.8383838383838383,0.7373737373737373,0.9470087611337743 +gemini-3-flash-preview,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,225.53196677117606,0.07058455043399657,,0.6842105263157895,0.6947368421052632,0.7894736842105263,0.8421052631578947,0.7526315789473684,0.9561632792041497 gemini-3-flash-preview,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.005649717514124294,,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758 gemini-3-flash-preview,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3-flash-preview,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -266,14 +266,14 @@ gemini-3-flash-preview,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.9 gemini-3-flash-preview,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.431631323242186,8.50016838390725e-05,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9899931998652929 gemini-3-flash-preview,snap,93,93,1.0,111.59784946236557,0.35513631357379194,,0.8172043010752689,0.8172043010752689,0.8709677419354839,0.8817204301075269,0.8467741935483871,0.9073465368122656 gemini-3-flash-preview,ssi,97,97,1.0,19.79381443298969,0.09693297442642909,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9819587628865979,0.9980013819705891 -gemini-3-flash-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,141.87490356955416,0.27109317436894176,,0.627906976744186,0.6395348837209303,0.686046511627907,0.7558139534883721,0.6773255813953488,0.8712130396772643 +gemini-3-flash-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,139.95913749941658,0.2774511804725019,,0.6352941176470588,0.6470588235294118,0.6941176470588235,0.7529411764705882,0.6823529411764706,0.8707180283483578 gemini-3-flash-preview,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,29.953633193385848,0.40578631341772303,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8571428571428571,0.8367346938775511,0.9152637383518468 gemini-3-flash-preview,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.45958984375,0.27138831253689305,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972861168746312 -gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1307.2033155487804,0.9141110639686388,,0.4634146341463415,0.47560975609756095,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.5121951219512195,0.7011653771585691 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1258.1661763251582,0.9870901703123034,,0.4810126582278481,0.4936708860759494,0.5569620253164557,0.569620253164557,0.5253164556962026,0.6958929344589238 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,272.9479859021245,0.5649095930538068,,0.8469387755102041,0.8469387755102041,0.8469387755102041,0.8673469387755102,0.8520408163265306,0.8957754538408992 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,31.5,,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,333.0915336223564,0.03442318320178963,,0.7676767676767676,0.8484848484848485,0.8585858585858586,0.9292929292929293,0.851010101010101,0.9780943379624975 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,316.19232840768916,0.03118410248705525,,0.8,0.8842105263157894,0.8947368421052632,0.9368421052631579,0.8789473684210527,0.9806330310869867 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -284,14 +284,14 @@ gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0. gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,20.57040251464844,0.0024292504799131066,,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.979805659961607 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,snap,93,93,1.0,248.08602150537635,1.2318771910502693,,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.8709677419354839,0.8548387096774194,0.8927662707850879 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,382.12637509878294,0.3835454982223732,,0.5348837209302325,0.5581395348837209,0.5813953488372093,0.5930232558139535,0.5668604651162791,0.7541088840295558 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,378.78839150619507,0.39023746315446867,,0.5411764705882353,0.5647058823529412,0.5882352941176471,0.6,0.573529411764706,0.7534452063733342 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,114.71338348485986,0.9725137431284357,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8213750267723281 gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gemini-3.1-pro-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,712.8772008384146,0.419506726408391,,0.524390243902439,0.5365853658536586,0.5487804878048781,0.573170731707317,0.5457317073170732,0.7902522567405342 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,663.815019284019,0.44429262658154717,,0.5443037974683544,0.5569620253164557,0.5569620253164557,0.569620253164557,0.5569620253164557,0.7884916750200144 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,92.27329204948582,0.29286136212849573,,0.8673469387755102,0.8979591836734694,0.8979591836734694,0.9183673469387755,0.8954081632653061,0.9365155613937403 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gemini-3.1-pro-preview,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,239.70578704525727,0.09397054355322071,,0.6666666666666666,0.6767676767676768,0.7575757575757576,0.8181818181818182,0.7297979797979799,0.9402005631934051 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,221.81594153474504,0.09481823498553894,,0.6842105263157895,0.6947368421052632,0.7789473684210526,0.8210526315789474,0.7447368421052631,0.9411128856405601 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.01694915254237288,,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272,0.9830508474576272 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 @@ -302,14 +302,14 @@ gemini-3.1-pro-preview,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0, gemini-3.1-pro-preview,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.011282299804687455,0.000145894883346029,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999883284093323 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,snap,93,93,1.0,120.24946236559141,0.4976533739500507,,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8924731182795699,0.8924731182795699,0.8655913978494624,0.908930173533864 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,ssi,97,97,1.0,110.84536082474227,0.06619001968689023,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9768041237113402,0.9883259789755281 -gemini-3.1-pro-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,177.27644822741664,0.27135958799885185,,0.6511627906976745,0.6627906976744186,0.7209302325581395,0.7790697674418605,0.7034883720930233,0.8813624702458875 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,176.86964196575389,0.27863797547807384,,0.6588235294117647,0.6705882352941176,0.7294117647058823,0.7764705882352941,0.7088235294117646,0.8806759857911499 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,54.76942216620154,0.5418215330691546,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8800735959668899 gemini-3.1-pro-preview,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gemini-3.5-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,963.3471233088795,0.5831620630839038,,0.5121951219512195,0.524390243902439,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.5365853658536586,0.7687022603287419 +gemini-3.5-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,895.530635012856,0.6208179584634841,,0.5316455696202531,0.5443037974683544,0.569620253164557,0.5822784810126582,0.5569620253164557,0.7672878326511589 gemini-3.5-flash,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,108.31145531479194,0.2475640087124831,,0.8571428571428571,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.9183673469387755,0.8775510204081632,0.9313958765730888 gemini-3.5-flash,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.5-flash,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,28.1812,,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gemini-3.5-flash,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,289.5179679361979,0.11394436060679412,,0.6161616161616161,0.6262626262626263,0.6868686868686869,0.7878787878787878,0.6792929292929293,0.927489952341131 +gemini-3.5-flash,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,272.38419153474507,0.11517458700948496,,0.6421052631578947,0.6526315789473685,0.7157894736842105,0.7894736842105263,0.7,0.928470519646741 gemini-3.5-flash,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.03954802259887006,,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113 gemini-3.5-flash,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.5-flash,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -320,14 +320,14 @@ gemini-3.5-flash,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.03,,0.97,0.97 gemini-3.5-flash,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.008882299804683953,0.00014162740073649118,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999886698079411 gemini-3.5-flash,snap,93,93,1.0,86.02150537634408,0.275273051861285,,0.8387096774193549,0.8494623655913979,0.9032258064516129,0.9139784946236559,0.8763440860215054,0.9400155949011109 gemini-3.5-flash,ssi,97,97,1.0,5.072164948453608,0.025894900504143357,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,1.0,1.0,0.9922680412371134,0.9994660845256877 -gemini-3.5-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,216.40433272051257,0.3966010803927464,,0.6046511627906976,0.627906976744186,0.6627906976744186,0.7093023255813954,0.6511627906976744,0.8326373748796952 +gemini-3.5-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,216.2225603940627,0.4080018888248032,,0.611764705882353,0.6352941176470588,0.6705882352941176,0.7058823529411765,0.6558823529411765,0.8314446103001986 gemini-3.5-flash,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,41.819855690197066,0.6144782376127053,,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8137755102040817,0.876932568601748 gemini-3.5-flash,tanf,100,100,1.0,7.66958984375,0.1264574066124597,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9987354259338754 -gemini-3.5-flash-lite,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1090.8342999714177,0.6006407896027405,,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.5975609756097561,0.6341463414634146,0.5853658536585367,0.7719096528072235 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1050.4442679489716,0.6445252374949046,,0.569620253164557,0.5822784810126582,0.620253164556962,0.6582278481012658,0.6075949367088607,0.7688366584094108 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,302.53982263681837,0.6900239011584266,,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.9123442559924215 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.04,,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gemini-3.5-flash-lite,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,528.6792195638021,0.06476520169407127,,0.7878787878787878,0.8282828282828283,0.8585858585858586,0.9090909090909091,0.845959595959596,0.9587857807401364 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,544.1144432308798,0.06631418999262825,,0.8210526315789474,0.8526315789473684,0.8842105263157894,0.9052631578947369,0.8657894736842106,0.958815397794052 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.05649717514124294,,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -338,14 +338,14 @@ gemini-3.5-flash-lite,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,48.990022631835934,0.33281306928834004,,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9649999999999999,0.9633749544569329 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,snap,93,93,1.0,351.2043010752688,0.8279607700662017,,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8817204301075269,0.8817204301075269,0.8709677419354839,0.884263548270316 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -gemini-3.5-flash-lite,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,430.98314403955334,0.5208521464526006,,0.6162790697674418,0.6162790697674418,0.627906976744186,0.6627906976744186,0.6308139534883721,0.78658574709952 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,411.31406361097453,0.5181781747675703,,0.6235294117647059,0.6235294117647059,0.6352941176470588,0.6705882352941176,0.638235294117647,0.7911149597162025 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,99.71338348485986,0.9733517660885691,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8212211041878138 gemini-3.5-flash-lite,tanf,100,100,1.0,118.64958984375,1.0,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 -gemini-3.6-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,561.1786092320883,0.3344431907464499,,0.5609756097560976,0.573170731707317,0.6585365853658537,0.7073170731707317,0.625,0.8726988996671031 +gemini-3.6-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,523.4174938192247,0.3546634078463114,,0.5822784810126582,0.5949367088607594,0.6708860759493671,0.7215189873417721,0.6424050632911392,0.8726305394284314 gemini-3.6-flash,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,61.924495961714754,0.15370798512544603,,0.8979591836734694,0.9183673469387755,0.9489795918367347,0.9591836734693877,0.9311224489795918,0.9725429812614295 gemini-3.6-flash,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.6-flash,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gemini-3.6-flash,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,206.09791057548134,0.05167455413982679,,0.7070707070707071,0.7171717171717171,0.8080808080808081,0.8686868686868687,0.7752525252525253,0.9671161928201103 +gemini-3.6-flash,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,180.10952289782068,0.04884688856323825,,0.7263157894736842,0.7368421052631579,0.8315789473684211,0.8736842105263158,0.7921052631578948,0.9696635113133575 gemini-3.6-flash,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.02824858757062147,,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786 gemini-3.6-flash,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.6-flash,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -356,14 +356,14 @@ gemini-3.6-flash,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1. gemini-3.6-flash,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0027822998046872272,2.518602137197596e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999979851182903 gemini-3.6-flash,snap,93,93,1.0,99.29032258064517,0.29846023082180606,,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.8763440860215054,0.9475270645087798 gemini-3.6-flash,ssi,97,97,1.0,1.731958762886598,0.008747871130837852,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,1.0,1.0,0.9922680412371134,0.9998196315230755 -gemini-3.6-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,155.2569035922649,0.7124883043575841,,0.627906976744186,0.6627906976744186,0.7558139534883721,0.7674418604651163,0.7034883720930233,0.8684608765006566 +gemini-3.6-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,155.7966909231298,0.7359836180256886,,0.6352941176470588,0.6705882352941176,0.7529411764705882,0.7647058823529411,0.7058823529411764,0.8672795245534004 gemini-3.6-flash,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,43.578893688941484,0.6382126164966077,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8214285714285714,0.8725731928883781 gemini-3.6-flash,tanf,100,100,1.0,7.664789843750004,0.12637826345564096,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9987362173654435 -gemini-3.7-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,790.6302397341844,0.5885153990209967,,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.6097560975609756,0.6463414634146342,0.5914634146341464,0.8114168263574779 +gemini-3.7-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,741.4982052264636,0.63052384021866,,0.569620253164557,0.5822784810126582,0.6329113924050633,0.6582278481012658,0.610759493670886,0.8101198010284637 gemini-3.7-flash,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,116.61798592703684,0.3015668492484629,,0.8571428571428571,0.8775510204081632,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.8903061224489796,0.9253343332476215 gemini-3.7-flash,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.7-flash,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gemini-3.7-flash,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,210.6028035481771,0.08617317007296617,,0.7171717171717171,0.7171717171717171,0.797979797979798,0.8484848484848485,0.7702020202020202,0.9451625281353851 +gemini-3.7-flash,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,192.01041136410365,0.08655841672327612,,0.7368421052631579,0.7368421052631579,0.8210526315789474,0.8526315789473684,0.7868421052631579,0.9462426675087021 gemini-3.7-flash,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.02824858757062147,,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786,0.9717514124293786 gemini-3.7-flash,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.7-flash,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -374,14 +374,14 @@ gemini-3.7-flash,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.7-flash,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 gemini-3.7-flash,snap,93,93,1.0,153.13978494623655,0.4787112113664552,,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8817204301075269,0.8817204301075269,0.8602150537634409,0.9155966841502522 gemini-3.7-flash,ssi,97,97,1.0,11.257731958762887,0.0577729290234779,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9871134020618557,0.9988088055871448 -gemini-3.7-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,166.44406632334687,0.31171639221099096,,0.686046511627907,0.7209302325581395,0.7790697674418605,0.8023255813953488,0.747093023255814,0.8812850441330728 +gemini-3.7-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,167.11546733340094,0.32139198477059217,,0.6941176470588235,0.7294117647058823,0.7764705882352941,0.8,0.75,0.880254564746198 gemini-3.7-flash,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,33.076565023344386,0.5133737012636046,,0.8367346938775511,0.826530612244898,0.8469387755102041,0.8571428571428571,0.8418367346938777,0.9062100282421046 gemini-3.7-flash,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gemini-3.8-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,546.486308117378,0.3695996554636807,,0.573170731707317,0.573170731707317,0.7073170731707317,0.7682926829268293,0.6554878048780488,0.8890823842789214 +gemini-3.8-flash,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,477.05485215585446,0.3861861161847889,,0.5949367088607594,0.5949367088607594,0.7215189873417721,0.7848101265822784,0.6740506329113924,0.8923971417076991 gemini-3.8-flash,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,80.45643473722498,0.1819363933843249,,0.9081632653061225,0.9285714285714286,0.9387755102040817,0.9591836734693877,0.9336734693877551,0.9795785680895146 gemini-3.8-flash,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gemini-3.8-flash,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gemini-3.8-flash,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,139.0942697236032,0.019524285157953042,,0.8181818181818182,0.8484848484848485,0.9191919191919192,0.9595959595959596,0.8863636363636365,0.9875754548994844 +gemini-3.8-flash,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,130.28012708162007,0.017115981238638493,,0.8526315789473684,0.8842105263157894,0.9578947368421052,0.9578947368421052,0.9131578947368421,0.9893700748096879 gemini-3.8-flash,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.022598870056497175,,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028 gemini-3.8-flash,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gemini-3.8-flash,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -392,14 +392,14 @@ gemini-3.8-flash,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99 gemini-3.8-flash,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 gemini-3.8-flash,snap,93,93,1.0,52.98924731182796,0.41794495554072547,,0.8494623655913979,0.8494623655913979,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.8870967741935484,0.9308248986878556 gemini-3.8-flash,ssi,97,97,1.0,8.412371134020619,0.040561924526802184,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,1.0,1.0,0.9896907216494846,0.9991636716592412 -gemini-3.8-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,166.90487376168718,0.18881248970926562,,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.8023255813953488,0.8255813953488372,0.7645348837209303,0.8876235501014191 +gemini-3.8-flash,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,167.57604897689822,0.19424530663659081,,0.7058823529411765,0.7411764705882353,0.8,0.8235294117647058,0.7676470588235293,0.8866692483239867 gemini-3.8-flash,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,32.65154933909981,0.4995806944963879,,0.8571428571428571,0.8469387755102041,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8596938775510203,0.9082402806027043 gemini-3.8-flash,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -glm-5.2,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,76,0.926829268292683,569.0805494449013,0.36285345175152156,,0.4878048780487805,0.4878048780487805,0.6463414634146342,0.7073170731707318,0.5823170731707318,0.8107754400075127 +glm-5.2,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,73,0.9240506329113924,494.96764126712327,0.3813424597334745,,0.5063291139240507,0.5063291139240507,0.6708860759493671,0.7215189873417722,0.6012658227848102,0.8103477999545824 glm-5.2,federal_refundable_credits,98,88,0.8979591836734694,155.9154522566362,0.4696846776647093,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8112244897959184,0.8337980332280309 glm-5.2,free_school_meals_eligible,100,95,0.95,0.021052631578947368,,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.93 glm-5.2,local_income_tax,100,95,0.95,37.4,,,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94 -glm-5.2,payroll_tax,99,90,0.9090909090909091,159.53915186903214,0.047224253978130015,,0.7373737373737373,0.808080808080808,0.8585858585858586,0.8686868686868687,0.8181818181818181,0.8923557441377785 +glm-5.2,payroll_tax,95,87,0.9157894736842105,163.13953463148795,0.049616676528711524,,0.7578947368421052,0.8105263157894737,0.863157894736842,0.8736842105263157,0.8263157894736842,0.8985062424883542 glm-5.2,person_chip_eligible,177,165,0.9322033898305084,0.0,,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084 glm-5.2,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,34,0.8947368421052632,0.0,,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632 glm-5.2,person_head_start_eligible,38,34,0.8947368421052632,0.0,,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632 @@ -410,14 +410,14 @@ glm-5.2,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,95,0.95,0.010526315789473684,,0. glm-5.2,self_employment_tax,100,92,0.92,40.462241555918816,3.352336279141471e-05,,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.8999976533646046 glm-5.2,snap,93,89,0.956989247311828,160.2334831460674,1.1696998867207566,,0.8172043010752689,0.8279569892473119,0.8602150537634409,0.881720430107527,0.8467741935483871,0.8828924267797433 glm-5.2,ssi,97,92,0.9484536082474226,42.84804347826087,0.1165670367207515,,0.9278350515463917,0.9278350515463917,0.9278350515463917,0.9278350515463917,0.9278350515463917,0.9369426078688582 -glm-5.2,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,79,0.9186046511627907,418.3952914291092,1.3217642863698869,,0.5232558139534884,0.5348837209302325,0.6046511627906976,0.6395348837209303,0.5755813953488372,0.7134769848393566 +glm-5.2,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,78,0.9176470588235294,288.8558082362933,1.254862054801632,,0.5294117647058822,0.5411764705882353,0.6117647058823529,0.6470588235294118,0.5823529411764705,0.7218708317198196 glm-5.2,state_refundable_credits,98,90,0.9183673469387755,45.22765429963006,0.9019214373939038,,0.7448979591836735,0.7448979591836735,0.7448979591836735,0.7448979591836735,0.7448979591836735,0.7603997799907289 glm-5.2,tanf,100,95,0.95,63.841673519736844,1.0,,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94 -glm-5.3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,80,0.975609756097561,593.4866197509766,0.446117869051389,,0.5609756097560975,0.6097560975609756,0.6951219512195121,0.7317073170731707,0.649390243902439,0.8209921667839896 +glm-5.3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,77,0.9746835443037974,480.8747809709822,0.45871447509940255,,0.5822784810126582,0.620253164556962,0.7088607594936709,0.7468354430379747,0.6645569620253164,0.8261926138728213 glm-5.3,federal_refundable_credits,98,96,0.9795918367346939,253.52654483795166,0.34476172707133146,,0.826530612244898,0.836734693877551,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.8520408163265306,0.895311606335925 glm-5.3,free_school_meals_eligible,100,97,0.97,0.020618556701030927,,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.95 glm-5.3,local_income_tax,100,97,0.97,0.0,,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97 -glm-5.3,payroll_tax,99,96,0.9696969696969697,205.5442846934001,0.02931926355810288,,0.8181818181818182,0.8484848484848485,0.8787878787878788,0.9191919191919192,0.8661616161616161,0.9418267089546851 +glm-5.3,payroll_tax,95,92,0.968421052631579,200.42261631177823,0.02771657924639223,,0.8526315789473684,0.8842105263157894,0.9052631578947369,0.9157894736842105,0.8894736842105264,0.9415565427600215 glm-5.3,person_chip_eligible,177,168,0.9491525423728814,0.017857142857142856,,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084,0.9322033898305084 glm-5.3,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,35,0.9210526315789473,0.0,,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473 glm-5.3,person_head_start_eligible,38,35,0.9210526315789473,0.0,,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473 @@ -428,14 +428,14 @@ glm-5.3,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,97,0.97,0.020618556701030927,,0. glm-5.3,self_employment_tax,100,97,0.97,0.00884773175740759,0.00010957748686821732,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9699912338010506 glm-5.3,snap,93,90,0.967741935483871,116.08888888888889,0.49502346382348883,,0.8064516129032259,0.8387096774193549,0.8602150537634409,0.8709677419354839,0.8440860215053764,0.8789404585705626 glm-5.3,ssi,97,95,0.979381443298969,102.6842105263158,0.0005675368898978433,,0.9587628865979382,0.9690721649484535,0.9690721649484535,0.9690721649484535,0.9664948453608246,0.9690604631569093 -glm-5.3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,85,0.9883720930232558,223.48080443415924,0.7640520113690127,,0.569767441860465,0.627906976744186,0.6744186046511628,0.6744186046511628,0.6366279069767441,0.8057820801044986 +glm-5.3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,84,0.9882352941176471,217.95254043374743,0.7836490142289976,,0.5764705882352942,0.6352941176470589,0.6823529411764706,0.6823529411764706,0.6441176470588236,0.805799974322545 glm-5.3,state_refundable_credits,98,95,0.9693877551020408,67.42412189463565,1.176670574544347,,0.7857142857142857,0.7857142857142857,0.7857142857142857,0.7857142857142857,0.7857142857142857,0.8298857836589686 glm-5.3,tanf,100,97,0.97,235.72122664304123,1.0,,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94 -gpt-5.4-mini,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1605.057772008384,0.7593133141206919,,0.5609756097560976,0.5609756097560976,0.5609756097560976,0.573170731707317,0.5640243902439025,0.6607725282914204 +gpt-5.4-mini,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1332.7757120253164,0.7629104866864134,,0.5822784810126582,0.5822784810126582,0.5822784810126582,0.5949367088607594,0.5854430379746836,0.6753136064901415 gpt-5.4-mini,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,514.8456610854792,0.7891013249460958,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8502029125060504 gpt-5.4-mini,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gpt-5.4-mini,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.4-mini,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,1038.6377445154671,0.25662650891971256,,0.5454545454545454,0.6565656565656566,0.6666666666666666,0.7474747474747475,0.654040404040404,0.8265912114955364 +gpt-5.4-mini,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,1047.0798554995888,0.2561243232296806,,0.5684210526315789,0.6842105263157895,0.6947368421052632,0.7473684210526316,0.6736842105263158,0.8304069992573563 gpt-5.4-mini,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.07909604519774012,,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598 gpt-5.4-mini,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.07894736842105263,,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473,0.9210526315789473 gpt-5.4-mini,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.15789473684210525,,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947,0.8421052631578947 @@ -446,14 +446,14 @@ gpt-5.4-mini,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1. gpt-5.4-mini,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,73.5364168701172,0.08842207254988142,,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.9375,0.9629262341960094 gpt-5.4-mini,snap,93,93,1.0,546.5591397849462,1.3854698063203785,,0.7956989247311828,0.7956989247311828,0.7956989247311828,0.7956989247311828,0.7956989247311828,0.8215651525215243 gpt-5.4-mini,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -gpt-5.4-mini,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,498.3730254894079,0.6869272295473228,,0.6395348837209303,0.6395348837209303,0.6627906976744186,0.6744186046511628,0.6540697674418604,0.7487463152741897 +gpt-5.4-mini,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,462.8933549712686,0.6761316167730925,,0.6470588235294118,0.6470588235294118,0.6705882352941176,0.6823529411764706,0.661764705882353,0.7575550954538861 gpt-5.4-mini,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,118.08073042363537,1.0,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449 gpt-5.4-mini,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gpt-5.4-nano,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,2425.040467797256,1.1033600815326783,,0.524390243902439,0.5365853658536586,0.5365853658536586,0.5365853658536586,0.5335365853658537,0.6329741544612347 +gpt-5.4-nano,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,2071.9545465783226,1.1317687601727584,,0.5443037974683544,0.5569620253164557,0.5569620253164557,0.5569620253164557,0.5537974683544303,0.6497885047161621 gpt-5.4-nano,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,633.4683940653898,1.0,,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632 gpt-5.4-nano,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.08,,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92 gpt-5.4-nano,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.4-nano,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,1734.1287214182844,0.2502213763215863,,0.1717171717171717,0.2222222222222222,0.36363636363636365,0.46464646464646464,0.3055555555555556,0.6284115327767588 +gpt-5.4-nano,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,1697.8970820055508,0.23285317448817458,,0.17894736842105263,0.23157894736842105,0.37894736842105264,0.47368421052631576,0.3157894736842105,0.634087906930071 gpt-5.4-nano,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.4-nano,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 gpt-5.4-nano,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 @@ -464,14 +464,14 @@ gpt-5.4-nano,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1. gpt-5.4-nano,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,44.312894702148434,0.37297677917394395,,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.9601618576660846 gpt-5.4-nano,snap,93,93,1.0,560.3870967741935,1.0,,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409 gpt-5.4-nano,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -gpt-5.4-nano,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,701.888582711996,0.8939009376941695,,0.5930232558139535,0.5930232558139535,0.6162790697674418,0.6395348837209303,0.6104651162790697,0.687253460923772 +gpt-5.4-nano,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,668.8032128670636,0.890242349338796,,0.6,0.6,0.6235294117647059,0.6470588235294118,0.6176470588235294,0.6953387957581694 gpt-5.4-nano,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,118.08073042363537,1.0,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449 gpt-5.4-nano,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gpt-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,460.2016968368902,0.2042749984536805,,0.6951219512195121,0.6951219512195121,0.7317073170731707,0.7926829268292683,0.728658536585366,0.8825611258062455 +gpt-5.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,371.3642350672469,0.20342378350907958,,0.7215189873417721,0.7215189873417721,0.759493670886076,0.810126582278481,0.7531645569620253,0.8861927211994403 gpt-5.5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,63.1065284573302,0.1484962879061112,,0.8877551020408163,0.9081632653061225,0.9285714285714286,0.9591836734693877,0.9209183673469388,0.9629238860513549 gpt-5.5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gpt-5.5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,61.430016063959954,0.008074158685088458,,0.8888888888888888,0.9090909090909091,0.9696969696969697,0.9797979797979798,0.9368686868686869,0.99486189901858 +gpt-5.5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,63.22306274157075,0.007579102583782178,,0.9052631578947369,0.9157894736842105,0.9789473684210527,0.9789473684210527,0.9447368421052631,0.9952929783953353 gpt-5.5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.05084745762711865,,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814,0.9491525423728814 gpt-5.5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -482,14 +482,14 @@ gpt-5.5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.9 gpt-5.5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.018062299804685152,0.00017368058028906577,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999861055535768 gpt-5.5,snap,93,93,1.0,136.08602150537635,0.3620869173659745,,0.8494623655913979,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8575268817204301,0.8956222588628208 gpt-5.5,ssi,97,97,1.0,117.52577319587628,0.0019214346712211785,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9871134020618557,0.9896511044397687 -gpt-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,68.22549683354401,0.5870162536956741,,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.8604651162790697,0.9069767441860465,0.7994186046511627,0.9307323769355182 +gpt-5.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,67.7357382025416,0.6061802348983927,,0.7058823529411765,0.7411764705882353,0.8588235294117647,0.9058823529411765,0.8029411764705883,0.9302852378267226 gpt-5.5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,32.649730281635215,0.38087954249699574,,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.8647959183673469,0.9096343697454499 gpt-5.5,tanf,100,100,1.0,8.08958984375,0.13338243283410497,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9986661756716589 -gpt-5.6-luna,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,755.4387691501524,0.31965167854071824,,0.7804878048780488,0.8170731707317073,0.8292682926829268,0.8780487804878049,0.8262195121951219,0.9175401023866179 +gpt-5.6-luna,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,731.5635824762658,0.3418311695018582,,0.810126582278481,0.8481012658227848,0.8607594936708861,0.8860759493670886,0.8512658227848101,0.9178440406522718 gpt-5.6-luna,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,62.033617454061705,0.03964802280153711,,0.9081632653061225,0.9081632653061225,0.9387755102040817,0.9489795918367347,0.9260204081632654,0.9649374668283988 gpt-5.6-luna,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gpt-5.6-luna,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.6-luna,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,153.02679920789933,0.05717752417505218,,0.898989898989899,0.9191919191919192,0.9393939393939394,0.9696969696969697,0.9318181818181819,0.9759588760155063 +gpt-5.6-luna,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,153.78325124897202,0.059250227998888086,,0.9157894736842105,0.9368421052631579,0.9578947368421052,0.968421052631579,0.9447368421052631,0.9760668347013581 gpt-5.6-luna,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.03389830508474576,,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542,0.9661016949152542 gpt-5.6-luna,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-luna,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -500,14 +500,14 @@ gpt-5.6-luna,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.9 gpt-5.6-luna,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.44594216308594,0.00011566184949856606,,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9875,0.98999074705204 gpt-5.6-luna,snap,93,93,1.0,203.15354838709675,0.7818908704351123,,0.8602150537634409,0.8817204301075269,0.8924731182795699,0.9032258064516129,0.8844086021505376,0.9019856033181286 gpt-5.6-luna,ssi,97,97,1.0,98.22680412371135,0.0022701475595913734,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9871134020618557,0.9896439144833074 -gpt-5.6-luna,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,241.7301871899893,0.3986934222755633,,0.6046511627906976,0.627906976744186,0.6976744186046512,0.7441860465116279,0.6686046511627907,0.8075868053527013 +gpt-5.6-luna,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,235.13707151538625,0.40457037523969036,,0.611764705882353,0.6352941176470588,0.7058823529411765,0.7529411764705882,0.6764705882352942,0.8080085534899788 gpt-5.6-luna,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,56.63304424149649,0.7593327685591696,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8507225538518426 gpt-5.6-luna,tanf,100,100,1.0,17.50958984375,0.28870087809100625,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9971129912190899 -gpt-5.6-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,289.7567120331555,0.1317059224111787,,0.8902439024390244,0.9146341463414634,0.9146341463414634,0.9146341463414634,0.9085365853658537,0.9482042612914688 +gpt-5.6-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,241.22501033425638,0.13077400269025669,,0.9240506329113924,0.9367088607594937,0.9367088607594937,0.9367088607594937,0.9335443037974684,0.9516045152466146 gpt-5.6-sol,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,5.7052631412428205,0.004040567642417285,,0.9489795918367347,0.9693877551020408,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9744897959183674,0.9893423852646266 gpt-5.6-sol,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-sol,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.6-sol,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,29.557334729127223,0.010815706048970792,,0.9494949494949495,0.9494949494949495,0.9797979797979798,0.98989898989899,0.9671717171717172,0.9931172779688368 +gpt-5.6-sol,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,26.13334385793587,0.010602248503188031,,0.9578947368421052,0.9578947368421052,0.9894736842105263,0.9894736842105263,0.9736842105263158,0.9934154456664409 gpt-5.6-sol,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.011299435028248588,,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514 gpt-5.6-sol,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-sol,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -518,14 +518,14 @@ gpt-5.6-sol,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-sol,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0045822998046855905,2.7091941169829102e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999978326447063 gpt-5.6-sol,snap,93,93,1.0,106.06451612903226,0.4119675302124047,,0.8817204301075269,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.8978494623655914,0.920907764593965 gpt-5.6-sol,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.6-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,87.55527773323058,0.15683604873102971,,0.7209302325581395,0.7325581395348837,0.8372093023255814,0.8604651162790697,0.7877906976744187,0.9104060295124315 +gpt-5.6-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,80.82234005398918,0.15576932179888942,,0.7294117647058823,0.7411764705882353,0.8470588235294118,0.8705882352941177,0.7970588235294118,0.911561054915673 gpt-5.6-sol,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,60.30785531954862,0.4599184508904545,,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8951170192242023 gpt-5.6-sol,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.45208984375,0.2712646513543637,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972873534864565 -gpt-5.6-terra,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,393.1045152915396,0.33231758194447947,,0.7317073170731707,0.7804878048780488,0.8292682926829268,0.8658536585365854,0.8018292682926829,0.925591168182202 +gpt-5.6-terra,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,380.2110846024525,0.35807145808940594,,0.759493670886076,0.7974683544303798,0.8481012658227848,0.8734177215189873,0.8196202531645569,0.9252792199529276 gpt-5.6-terra,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,50.46908281598772,0.1548855545572883,,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.9489795918367347,0.9591836734693877,0.9336734693877551,0.9622067234680595 gpt-5.6-terra,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gpt-5.6-terra,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-5.6-terra,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,52.85340261501736,0.020253724710156254,,0.8383838383838383,0.8585858585858586,0.898989898989899,0.9494949494949495,0.8863636363636364,0.987111266093537 +gpt-5.6-terra,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,47.11434155530427,0.018649035713072536,,0.8736842105263158,0.8947368421052632,0.9263157894736842,0.9473684210526315,0.9105263157894737,0.9884179672939866 gpt-5.6-terra,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-terra,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-5.6-terra,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -536,14 +536,14 @@ gpt-5.6-terra,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0. gpt-5.6-terra,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.42530623324218,2.7180447370748754e-05,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9799978255642102 gpt-5.6-terra,snap,93,93,1.0,99.8731182795699,0.47646152716612583,,0.8709677419354839,0.9032258064516129,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.9005376344086021,0.9226451628692512 gpt-5.6-terra,ssi,97,97,1.0,99.3917525773196,0.014579785218063085,,0.9690721649484536,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.981958762886598,0.9893901075212771 -gpt-5.6-terra,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,144.56421646814573,0.2700036449340835,,0.6744186046511628,0.7093023255813954,0.7558139534883721,0.8255813953488372,0.741279069767442,0.8635962696249612 +gpt-5.6-terra,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,132.80785453872682,0.2680899698974722,,0.6823529411764706,0.7176470588235294,0.7647058823529411,0.8352941176470589,0.75,0.8658209342204997 gpt-5.6-terra,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,51.78011618575272,0.7670587174238916,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8489075825139791 gpt-5.6-terra,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -gpt-6-astra,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,209.01094559832316,0.12053699118384797,,0.8414634146341463,0.8536585365853658,0.8658536585365854,0.8780487804878049,0.8597560975609756,0.9500212475579167 +gpt-6-astra,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,164.66130340189872,0.1202215259695243,,0.8734177215189873,0.8734177215189873,0.8860759493670886,0.8860759493670886,0.8797468354430379,0.9528244644929715 gpt-6-astra,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,0.0019240149673053412,7.631848793559927e-06,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999991433639108 gpt-6-astra,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-astra,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6-astra,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,82.718688422309,0.018284344877775503,,0.8686868686868687,0.8888888888888888,0.9292929292929293,0.9393939393939394,0.9065656565656566,0.9883645078050518 +gpt-6-astra,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,85.98109696237661,0.019479632512565497,,0.8736842105263158,0.8842105263157894,0.9263157894736842,0.9368421052631579,0.9052631578947368,0.9879021229658805 gpt-6-astra,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-astra,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-astra,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -554,14 +554,14 @@ gpt-6-astra,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-astra,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 gpt-6-astra,snap,93,93,1.0,51.7632258064516,0.16769533166098569,,0.9032258064516129,0.946236559139785,0.946236559139785,0.946236559139785,0.935483870967742,0.955053340735561 gpt-6-astra,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6-astra,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,72.17286344816517,0.12099113003574123,,0.7674418604651163,0.813953488372093,0.8488372093023255,0.8837209302325582,0.8284883720930232,0.946165884871253 +gpt-6-astra,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,71.37472089498183,0.12378933258050984,,0.7764705882352941,0.8235294117647058,0.8470588235294118,0.8823529411764706,0.8323529411764706,0.9460012865313553 gpt-6-astra,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,47.45212313434056,2.5319099387418778,,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.8775510204081632,0.8724489795918366,0.9135804516381729 gpt-6-astra,tanf,100,100,1.0,0.01208984375,0.00019933924996272452,,0.99,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9975,0.9999980066075004 -gpt-6-luna,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,144.78360530201982,0.09474387615971218,,0.8048780487804879,0.8658536585365854,0.8902439024390244,0.9146341463414634,0.8689024390243902,0.9485208318362169 +gpt-6-luna,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,109.24773499307753,0.0944049076872314,,0.8354430379746836,0.8860759493670886,0.9113924050632911,0.9367088607594937,0.8924050632911392,0.9502968083758965 gpt-6-luna,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,18.44153642926897,0.05039417377182949,,0.9489795918367347,0.9693877551020408,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9744897959183674,0.9943435111072436 gpt-6-luna,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 gpt-6-luna,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6-luna,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,16.019333989307132,0.002640622920514413,,0.9191919191919192,0.9494949494949495,0.9797979797979798,1.0,0.9621212121212122,0.9983196035960363 +gpt-6-luna,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,6.8804012900904645,0.0009362983277494716,,0.9368421052631579,0.968421052631579,1.0,1.0,0.9763157894736842,0.9994185094596083 gpt-6-luna,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.011299435028248588,,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514 gpt-6-luna,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-luna,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -572,14 +572,14 @@ gpt-6-luna,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99, gpt-6-luna,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.46423132324219,0.00014640257678745792,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.989988287793857 gpt-6-luna,snap,93,93,1.0,104.26451612903226,0.47748056751353485,,0.8602150537634409,0.8924731182795699,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.8951612903225806,0.9134335298805345 gpt-6-luna,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6-luna,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,65.08056791593863,0.08459187449731541,,0.7325581395348837,0.7441860465116279,0.8604651162790697,0.8953488372093024,0.8081395348837208,0.923979578663727 +gpt-6-luna,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,64.46804495575849,0.08635934316176565,,0.7411764705882353,0.7529411764705882,0.8588235294117647,0.8941176470588236,0.8117647058823529,0.9234774005683388 gpt-6-luna,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,43.718861553231065,0.4563971920076426,,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8877551020408163,0.8877551020408163,0.8775510204081631,0.9065499925781576 gpt-6-luna,tanf,100,100,1.0,7.66958984375,0.1264574066124597,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9987354259338754 -gpt-6-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,112.26243547541917,0.06552706016832348,,0.8780487804878049,0.9146341463414634,0.9146341463414634,0.9390243902439024,0.9115853658536586,0.9728302433448415 +gpt-6-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,90.57358423160598,0.06586719699147744,,0.9113924050632911,0.9367088607594937,0.9367088607594937,0.9493670886075949,0.9335443037974684,0.9741533783957494 gpt-6-sol,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,11.101151414520874,0.022654343243450975,,0.9489795918367347,0.9591836734693877,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9719387755102041,0.9974571655543064 gpt-6-sol,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-sol,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6-sol,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,1.2952200353140917,0.0008703413599367797,,0.98989898989899,0.98989898989899,0.98989898989899,1.0,0.9924242424242424,0.9994461464073129 +gpt-6-sol,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,0.006451156455601916,6.940678000524343e-06,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999956894736628 gpt-6-sol,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.005649717514124294,,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758,0.9943502824858758 gpt-6-sol,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6-sol,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -590,14 +590,14 @@ gpt-6-sol,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1 gpt-6-sol,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.005250299804688438,3.994699523699791e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999968042403811 gpt-6-sol,snap,93,93,1.0,115.83225806451613,0.5855172715081373,,0.8924731182795699,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.9032258064516129,0.9005376344086021,0.9202592344486833 gpt-6-sol,ssi,97,97,1.0,10.762886597938145,0.05572160546541417,,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9988511009182389 -gpt-6-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,79.60832806026549,0.15098260025229626,,0.7441860465116279,0.7674418604651163,0.8488372093023255,0.8604651162790697,0.8052325581395348,0.9124479301445481 +gpt-6-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,75.00389639590097,0.15156732808058432,,0.7529411764705882,0.7764705882352941,0.8588235294117647,0.8705882352941177,0.8147058823529412,0.9129946763019186 gpt-6-sol,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,32.428406478920756,0.5121929777284749,,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8622448979591837,0.8957196571519128 gpt-6-sol,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.45958984375,0.27138831253689305,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972861168746312 -gpt-6.1-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,226.08470131478654,0.15652881139744798,,0.8414634146341463,0.8536585365853658,0.8536585365853658,0.8780487804878049,0.8567073170731707,0.9350978099083753 +gpt-6.1-sol,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,182.3848219936709,0.15969675626835553,,0.8734177215189873,0.8734177215189873,0.8734177215189873,0.8860759493670886,0.8765822784810126,0.9373341842491264 gpt-6.1-sol,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,3.978148504763224,7.631848793559927e-06,,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9897959183673469,0.9897950617312578 gpt-6.1-sol,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6.1-sol,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6.1-sol,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,83.28207725201226,0.024635189894032693,,0.8686868686868687,0.8686868686868687,0.9090909090909091,0.9393939393939394,0.8964646464646465,0.9843230609765246 +gpt-6.1-sol,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,86.78852321648844,0.02630479570585291,,0.8631578947368421,0.8631578947368421,0.9052631578947369,0.9368421052631579,0.8921052631578947,0.9836633374037336 gpt-6.1-sol,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6.1-sol,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6.1-sol,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -608,14 +608,14 @@ gpt-6.1-sol,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 gpt-6.1-sol,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0012822998046863176,1.742575068402932e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999986059399453 gpt-6.1-sol,snap,93,93,1.0,64.50193548387097,0.25887264064273635,,0.9139784946236559,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.9220430107526881,0.942308125501553 gpt-6.1-sol,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -gpt-6.1-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,65.70432357943336,0.1332244926267002,,0.7441860465116279,0.7674418604651163,0.8372093023255814,0.8837209302325582,0.808139534883721,0.9418984328046396 +gpt-6.1-sol,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,64.82419820426493,0.13643962898084522,,0.7529411764705882,0.7764705882352941,0.8352941176470589,0.8823529411764706,0.8117647058823529,0.941685303053594 gpt-6.1-sol,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,21.216245583320152,0.19622238526538657,,0.8979591836734694,0.8979591836734694,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.9056122448979591,0.9435509904614596 gpt-6.1-sol,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.45208984375,0.2712646513543637,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972873534864565 -grok-4.3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1094.8344964748476,0.9139224728808983,,0.5487804878048781,0.5853658536585366,0.6219512195121951,0.6951219512195121,0.6128048780487805,0.7759575619928454 +grok-4.3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1078.1078421677216,0.992385961685268,,0.569620253164557,0.6075949367088608,0.6329113924050633,0.6962025316455697,0.6265822784810127,0.7713660677103867 grok-4.3,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,536.376557330696,0.8611609779771734,,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.872726829002562 grok-4.3,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 grok-4.3,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-4.3,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,388.3646690291588,0.04962868798157417,,0.7777777777777778,0.8484848484848485,0.8585858585858586,0.9090909090909091,0.8484848484848485,0.9684181076480892 +grok-4.3,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,380.2779560289885,0.04816673992769779,,0.8105263157894737,0.8842105263157894,0.8947368421052632,0.9157894736842105,0.8763157894736842,0.9700859194133246 grok-4.3,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.03954802259887006,,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113,0.96045197740113 grok-4.3,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 grok-4.3,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -626,14 +626,14 @@ grok-4.3,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1. grok-4.3,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.579960327148434,0.0007042345874243298,,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9824999999999999,0.989943661233006 grok-4.3,snap,93,93,1.0,573.2903225806451,0.9432999432999433,,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8466354917967822 grok-4.3,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -grok-4.3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,236.67906144053438,0.4113355995456235,,0.6511627906976745,0.6627906976744186,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.686046511627907,0.8448829303910615 +grok-4.3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,198.120638404173,0.3910368271161623,,0.6588235294117647,0.6705882352941176,0.7058823529411765,0.7411764705882353,0.6941176470588235,0.8548227295721328 grok-4.3,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,112.97868960730884,0.9873021683407591,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8186587854067994 grok-4.3,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -grok-4.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,759.121903582317,0.49601384688912187,,0.5487804878048781,0.5609756097560976,0.5853658536585366,0.6463414634146342,0.5853658536585367,0.8108803411218974 +grok-4.5,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,703.2715461827531,0.527961826191798,,0.569620253164557,0.5822784810126582,0.6075949367088608,0.6455696202531646,0.6012658227848101,0.8099980019529115 grok-4.5,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,90.67696551887356,0.201694384459498,,0.8877551020408163,0.9081632653061225,0.9183673469387755,0.9387755102040817,0.913265306122449,0.9569526711320971 grok-4.5,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 grok-4.5,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-4.5,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,75.18634872652304,0.01839263611034336,,0.8585858585858586,0.8888888888888888,0.9494949494949495,0.9797979797979798,0.9191919191919191,0.9882955952025088 +grok-4.5,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,52.45429362150494,0.01317943576331682,,0.8947368421052632,0.9263157894736842,0.9789473684210527,0.9894736842105263,0.9473684210526315,0.9918148767364665 grok-4.5,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.011299435028248588,,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514,0.9887005649717514 grok-4.5,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 grok-4.5,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -644,14 +644,14 @@ grok-4.5,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0. grok-4.5,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.016382299804686227,0.00019320155724966045,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.99998454387542 grok-4.5,snap,93,93,1.0,76.6236559139785,0.49252935709384804,,0.8494623655913979,0.8602150537634409,0.9139784946236559,0.9247311827956989,0.8870967741935484,0.9223451052554452 grok-4.5,ssi,97,97,1.0,11.030927835051546,0.05674460161430561,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9871134020618557,0.998830008214138 -grok-4.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,148.42793583869934,0.18286492264238113,,0.6511627906976745,0.6627906976744186,0.7093023255813954,0.7558139534883721,0.6947674418604651,0.8548145618689368 +grok-4.5,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,148.88173531363992,0.18809265105015857,,0.6588235294117647,0.6705882352941176,0.7058823529411765,0.7529411764705882,0.6970588235294117,0.8534742719946519 grok-4.5,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,58.54218236280947,0.7499925769866382,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8418380981044951 grok-4.5,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.44958984375,0.2712234309601872,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972877656903981 -grok-4.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,836.3879811356708,0.49840426316522757,,0.5609756097560976,0.5609756097560976,0.6097560975609756,0.6585365853658537,0.5975609756097562,0.8320931532075976 +grok-4.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,783.8641836431962,0.5313118070569347,,0.5822784810126582,0.5822784810126582,0.6329113924050633,0.6582278481012658,0.6139240506329113,0.8317306011629841 grok-4.6,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,61.75859817193479,0.11442975660933365,,0.9183673469387755,0.9285714285714286,0.9489795918367347,0.9693877551020408,0.9413265306122449,0.987155843645891 grok-4.6,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 grok-4.6,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-4.6,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,20.413023126775574,0.0033804320423386595,,0.8888888888888888,0.9393939393939394,0.9797979797979798,1.0,0.952020202020202,0.9978488159730573 +grok-4.6,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,18.936030299136515,0.0016059371922763725,,0.9157894736842105,0.9578947368421052,1.0,1.0,0.968421052631579,0.9990026284805864 grok-4.6,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.05649717514124294,,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757 grok-4.6,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 grok-4.6,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -662,14 +662,14 @@ grok-4.6,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0. grok-4.6,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.015082299804685135,0.00018936798364602316,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999848505613084 grok-4.6,snap,93,93,1.0,89.39784946236558,0.4142431666072162,,0.8279569892473119,0.8387096774193549,0.8924731182795699,0.8924731182795699,0.8629032258064516,0.9098369767108193 grok-4.6,ssi,97,97,1.0,3.9587628865979383,0.020130596490479824,,0.979381443298969,0.9896907216494846,1.0,1.0,0.9922680412371134,0.9995849361548356 -grok-4.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,104.48890995979309,0.16698031585809708,,0.6627906976744186,0.7209302325581395,0.7790697674418605,0.8255813953488372,0.747093023255814,0.8952394247006638 +grok-4.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,105.6576616118936,0.1726877719717267,,0.6705882352941176,0.7176470588235294,0.7764705882352941,0.8235294117647058,0.7470588235294118,0.8940241719155285 grok-4.6,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,44.256468077095185,0.49418623535212247,,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.8571428571428571,0.909231099629202 grok-4.6,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.48958984375,0.27188295726701056,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972811704273299 -grok-4.7,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,519.4989628191692,0.35188907590813073,,0.5853658536585366,0.6951219512195121,0.7926829268292683,0.8170731707317073,0.7225609756097561,0.9033515062538545 +grok-4.7,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,474.8654557703718,0.37521192738038545,,0.6075949367088608,0.7215189873417721,0.8227848101265823,0.8227848101265823,0.7436708860759493,0.9038921815810197 grok-4.7,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,28.61213208256935,0.03835701888150592,,0.9081632653061225,0.9489795918367347,0.9489795918367347,0.9897959183673469,0.9489795918367347,0.9956946203296269 grok-4.7,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.03,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97 grok-4.7,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-4.7,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,9.59769047407671,0.0025630788402871774,,0.9292929292929293,0.9494949494949495,0.9797979797979798,1.0,0.9646464646464646,0.9983689498289082 +grok-4.7,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,3.9950602847450707,0.0008883315813322884,,0.9473684210526315,0.968421052631579,1.0,1.0,0.9789473684210526,0.999448299333699 grok-4.7,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.05649717514124294,,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757,0.943502824858757 grok-4.7,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 grok-4.7,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -680,14 +680,14 @@ grok-4.7,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0. grok-4.7,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,0.013281323242185863,9.278463705377946e-05,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,0.9999925772290357 grok-4.7,snap,93,93,1.0,81.92580645161291,0.33514802771074387,,0.8602150537634409,0.8709677419354839,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.8951612903225806,0.9316459746210789 grok-4.7,ssi,97,97,1.0,0.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-4.7,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,90.0947851641899,0.14279469543681114,,0.6976744186046512,0.7325581395348837,0.7790697674418605,0.8372093023255814,0.7616279069767442,0.9036762690336706 +grok-4.7,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,83.76819463119507,0.14155778582620437,,0.7058823529411765,0.7411764705882353,0.788235294117647,0.8470588235294118,0.7705882352941177,0.9046449907181183 grok-4.7,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,27.02574830755896,0.3738464532377186,,0.8571428571428571,0.8673469387755102,0.8673469387755102,0.8775510204081632,0.8673469387755102,0.921130243282868 grok-4.7,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.45208984375,0.2712646513543637,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972873534864565 -grok-build-0.1,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1032.261435904154,0.4166273840968176,,0.47560975609756095,0.47560975609756095,0.524390243902439,0.5365853658536586,0.5030487804878049,0.7415731579632797 +grok-build-0.1,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,936.1758708712421,0.436166142115378,,0.4936708860759494,0.4936708860759494,0.5443037974683544,0.5569620253164557,0.5221518987341772,0.7399136659076458 grok-build-0.1,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,111.45127993213887,0.20595095265447802,,0.8469387755102041,0.8469387755102041,0.8673469387755102,0.8979591836734694,0.864795918367347,0.9156585665387831 grok-build-0.1,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 grok-build-0.1,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -grok-build-0.1,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,208.31301459418404,0.045732389051909156,,0.7171717171717171,0.7676767676767676,0.8080808080808081,0.8787878787878788,0.7929292929292929,0.9708975706033305 +grok-build-0.1,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,185.19966120990955,0.04169540670884422,,0.7473684210526316,0.8,0.8421052631578947,0.8842105263157894,0.8184210526315789,0.9741049579387179 grok-build-0.1,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.022598870056497175,,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028 grok-build-0.1,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 grok-build-0.1,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -698,14 +698,14 @@ grok-build-0.1,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0 grok-build-0.1,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,19.800231323242187,0.00021513468896632062,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9899827892248827 grok-build-0.1,snap,93,93,1.0,253.53763440860214,0.5006941553309233,,0.8387096774193549,0.8602150537634409,0.8709677419354839,0.8817204301075269,0.8629032258064516,0.9085051180720215 grok-build-0.1,ssi,97,97,1.0,106.9278350515464,0.04653972128171252,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9793814432989691,0.9887311397673872 -grok-build-0.1,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,229.0531803341799,0.7021743715658014,,0.5348837209302325,0.5581395348837209,0.6046511627906976,0.6395348837209303,0.5843023255813953,0.7589485960533782 +grok-build-0.1,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,222.71092340244965,0.7188498118880351,,0.5411764705882353,0.5647058823529412,0.611764705882353,0.6470588235294118,0.5911764705882353,0.7586843042683711 grok-build-0.1,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,75.52452420701786,1.2333790047333604,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8271666919340446 grok-build-0.1,tanf,100,100,1.0,6.00958984375,0.09908706487929027,,0.99,0.99,0.99,1.0,0.9924999999999999,0.9990091293512071 -inkling,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,328.69643090224844,0.17574055583043977,,0.7317073170731707,0.7804878048780488,0.7804878048780488,0.8048780487804879,0.774390243902439,0.9271319646556713 +inkling,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,289.91852390723886,0.18090874664739845,,0.759493670886076,0.7974683544303798,0.7974683544303798,0.810126582278481,0.7911392405063291,0.9290104918219068 inkling,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,81.34820276377152,0.10642112209169272,,0.8877551020408163,0.9285714285714286,0.9285714285714286,0.9489795918367347,0.9234693877551021,0.9472384454795039 inkling,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 inkling,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,39.24,,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -inkling,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,83.86967938663983,0.02079878961165186,,0.8181818181818182,0.8585858585858586,0.898989898989899,0.9595959595959596,0.8838383838383839,0.9867644066107671 +inkling,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,85.36980892783718,0.020265822432288336,,0.8421052631578947,0.8736842105263158,0.9157894736842105,0.9578947368421052,0.8973684210526316,0.9874138576473158 inkling,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 inkling,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 inkling,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -716,14 +716,14 @@ inkling,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9 inkling,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,34.43888229980468,0.0001841476840988503,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9899852681852721 inkling,snap,93,93,1.0,149.09677419354838,0.4805822155985559,,0.8602150537634409,0.9032258064516129,0.9247311827956989,0.9247311827956989,0.9032258064516129,0.9238612673536069 inkling,ssi,97,97,1.0,10.68041237113402,0.05529461998292058,,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9988599047426203 -inkling,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,132.00886482216592,0.2386237703998181,,0.6046511627906976,0.6395348837209303,0.7325581395348837,0.7790697674418605,0.688953488372093,0.8453972637628607 +inkling,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,132.78373359029433,0.24620312430719224,,0.611764705882353,0.6470588235294118,0.7294117647058823,0.7764705882352941,0.6911764705882353,0.8437998493022588 inkling,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,62.31431975170057,0.7678618120653087,,0.826530612244898,0.826530612244898,0.8367346938775511,0.8367346938775511,0.8316326530612246,0.8707272557191053 inkling,tanf,100,100,1.0,16.44958984375,0.2712234309601872,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9972877656903981 -kimi-k2.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,45,0.5487804878048781,3575.6949115668403,0.12506863265036838,,0.45121951219512196,0.45121951219512196,0.5,0.5,0.47560975609756095,0.525908775261554 +kimi-k2.6,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,45,0.569620253164557,3575.6949115668403,0.12506863265036838,,0.46835443037974683,0.46835443037974683,0.5189873417721519,0.5189873417721519,0.49367088607594933,0.5458799945752838 kimi-k2.6,federal_refundable_credits,98,48,0.4897959183673469,174.12708188374836,0.36096984340474547,,0.45918367346938777,0.45918367346938777,0.45918367346938777,0.45918367346938777,0.45918367346938777,0.4648583737385818 kimi-k2.6,free_school_meals_eligible,100,93,0.93,0.021505376344086023,,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.91 kimi-k2.6,local_income_tax,100,87,0.87,0.0,,,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.87 -kimi-k2.6,payroll_tax,99,48,0.48484848484848486,12.856362915039073,0.0035978953827421386,,0.4646464646464647,0.4646464646464647,0.47474747474747475,0.48484848484848486,0.47222222222222227,0.48408529491881225 +kimi-k2.6,payroll_tax,95,47,0.49473684210526314,13.121414872839113,0.003717481199433475,,0.4736842105263158,0.4736842105263158,0.4842105263157894,0.49473684210526314,0.48157894736842105,0.49395421448432963 kimi-k2.6,person_chip_eligible,177,151,0.8531073446327684,0.019867549668874173,,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955,0.8361581920903955 kimi-k2.6,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,37,0.9736842105263158,0.02702702702702703,,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316,0.9473684210526316 kimi-k2.6,person_head_start_eligible,38,37,0.9736842105263158,0.0,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 @@ -734,14 +734,14 @@ kimi-k2.6,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,92,0.92,0.010869565217391304,, kimi-k2.6,self_employment_tax,100,60,0.6,0.0023014322916651508,1.6540086871946673e-05,,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.5999996691982625 kimi-k2.6,snap,93,83,0.8924731182795699,139.51807228915663,0.7636339837034091,,0.8064516129032259,0.8064516129032259,0.8172043010752688,0.8279569892473118,0.814516129032258,0.826784173444868 kimi-k2.6,ssi,97,86,0.8865979381443299,0.4186046511627907,0.003842869342442357,,0.8762886597938144,0.8865979381443299,0.8865979381443299,0.8865979381443299,0.884020618556701,0.8865583209346138 -kimi-k2.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,57,0.6627906976744186,115.05470420134694,0.5209272704784943,,0.5232558139534883,0.5232558139534883,0.5348837209302325,0.5813953488372092,0.5406976744186045,0.5843081077069643 +kimi-k2.6,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,57,0.6705882352941176,115.05470420134694,0.5209272704784943,,0.5294117647058824,0.5294117647058824,0.5411764705882353,0.588235294117647,0.5470588235294118,0.5911823207388108 kimi-k2.6,state_refundable_credits,98,56,0.5714285714285714,10.34587128673281,1.0,,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5 kimi-k2.6,tanf,100,89,0.89,0.0,,,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.89 -kimi-k3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,81,0.9878048780487805,249.9359975405092,0.08855597445197522,,0.8414634146341463,0.8658536585365854,0.8902439024390244,0.9146341463414634,0.8780487804878049,0.9523733158462313 +kimi-k3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,78,0.9873417721518988,207.04181865985575,0.08858167701876732,,0.8734177215189873,0.8987341772151899,0.9240506329113924,0.9240506329113924,0.9050632911392406,0.9539178322245967 kimi-k3,federal_refundable_credits,98,95,0.9693877551020408,17.939430497018922,0.06333102758780991,,0.9081632653061225,0.9285714285714285,0.9489795918367347,0.9489795918367347,0.9336734693877551,0.9520750887401437 kimi-k3,free_school_meals_eligible,100,97,0.97,0.010309278350515464,,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96 kimi-k3,local_income_tax,100,97,0.97,0.0,,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97 -kimi-k3,payroll_tax,99,96,0.9696969696969697,9.193248519897486,0.0009816461506643713,,0.9292929292929294,0.9393939393939394,0.9696969696969697,0.9696969696969697,0.9520202020202021,0.969102032635961 +kimi-k3,payroll_tax,95,92,0.968421052631579,5.707645502505112,0.0005809413791082061,,0.9368421052631579,0.9473684210526316,0.968421052631579,0.968421052631579,0.9552631578947368,0.9680786029765258 kimi-k3,person_chip_eligible,177,171,0.9661016949152542,0.029239766081871343,,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327,0.9378531073446327 kimi-k3,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,36,0.9473684210526315,0.0,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 kimi-k3,person_head_start_eligible,38,36,0.9473684210526315,0.0,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 @@ -752,14 +752,14 @@ kimi-k3,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,97,0.97,0.010309278350515464,,0. kimi-k3,self_employment_tax,100,97,0.97,0.0033838142316346756,5.9567983600926226e-05,,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.969995234561312 kimi-k3,snap,93,91,0.978494623655914,85.72285714285714,0.47465267116100845,,0.8602150537634409,0.903225806451613,0.903225806451613,0.903225806451613,0.89247311827957,0.9031032923010517 kimi-k3,ssi,97,94,0.9690721649484536,11.106382978723405,0.05572160546541417,,0.9587628865979382,0.9587628865979382,0.9587628865979382,0.9587628865979382,0.9587628865979382,0.9679232658666925 -kimi-k3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,85,0.9883720930232558,101.90464587918451,0.12350512485124471,,0.6976744186046512,0.7441860465116279,0.8372093023255813,0.8372093023255813,0.7790697674418603,0.9118412951083013 +kimi-k3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,84,0.9882352941176471,95.7316657054992,0.12161053618529549,,0.7058823529411765,0.7529411764705882,0.8470588235294118,0.8470588235294118,0.7882352941176471,0.9128812351389616 kimi-k3,state_refundable_credits,98,95,0.9693877551020408,30.48218292336715,0.5969869954367941,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122448,0.8086734693877551,0.8556247048732093 kimi-k3,tanf,100,97,0.97,16.960917364690722,0.2712646513543637,,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.9672873534864564 -minimax-m3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,2151.7156803782395,1.22609124971039,,0.524390243902439,0.5487804878048781,0.6097560975609756,0.6097560975609756,0.5731707317073171,0.6380769405781693 +minimax-m3,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1616.0155662826344,1.24797104806946,,0.5443037974683544,0.569620253164557,0.6329113924050633,0.6329113924050633,0.5949367088607596,0.6623077104735428 minimax-m3,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,426.5208842997648,0.690454400381062,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8112244897959184,0.840867363222534 minimax-m3,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 minimax-m3,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -minimax-m3,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,1960.21464806759,0.24591759337539043,,0.6363636363636364,0.696969696969697,0.7878787878787878,0.8181818181818182,0.7348484848484849,0.8435069860338423 +minimax-m3,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,1887.1655739874589,0.24288781312557778,,0.6631578947368421,0.7263157894736842,0.8210526315789474,0.8210526315789474,0.7578947368421052,0.8491538844799043 minimax-m3,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.022598870056497175,,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028,0.9774011299435028 minimax-m3,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 minimax-m3,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.05263157894736842,,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315,0.9473684210526315 @@ -770,14 +770,14 @@ minimax-m3,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0, minimax-m3,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,52.137589819335936,0.2117598110686142,,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.9630592151145109 minimax-m3,snap,93,93,1.0,426.06451612903226,0.8724417371025018,,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8602150537634409,0.8709677419354839,0.8629032258064516,0.8780457786845964 minimax-m3,ssi,97,97,1.0,205.56701030927834,1.0,,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969 -minimax-m3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,598.4353853214619,1.3516083365443936,,0.6046511627906976,0.6162790697674418,0.6511627906976745,0.6511627906976745,0.6308139534883721,0.723576182597974 +minimax-m3,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,564.1329190366408,1.3637327619424762,,0.611764705882353,0.6235294117647059,0.6588235294117647,0.6588235294117647,0.638235294117647,0.7320888435697148 minimax-m3,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,114.76440389302311,0.9506409112855011,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.825392485682255 minimax-m3,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -ox-alpha,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,425.23533215034297,0.2662146808853651,,0.7439024390243902,0.7682926829268293,0.7926829268292683,0.8048780487804879,0.7774390243902438,0.8776550715442846 +ox-alpha,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,381.06412393690664,0.27801344121959043,,0.7721518987341772,0.7848101265822784,0.810126582278481,0.8227848101265823,0.7974683544303797,0.8784885865686891 ox-alpha,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,109.45626254334742,0.08470054563216628,,0.8571428571428571,0.8979591836734694,0.8979591836734694,0.9183673469387755,0.8928571428571428,0.9394723877351651 ox-alpha,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 ox-alpha,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -ox-alpha,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,98.16874657216697,0.00999097645377959,,0.8787878787878788,0.898989898989899,0.9292929292929293,0.9797979797979798,0.9217171717171716,0.9936421058930494 +ox-alpha,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,87.63226611328125,0.006936513753927001,,0.9157894736842105,0.9368421052631579,0.968421052631579,0.9789473684210527,0.95,0.9956920598791402 ox-alpha,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.07344632768361582,,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842,0.9265536723163842 ox-alpha,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 ox-alpha,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 @@ -788,14 +788,14 @@ ox-alpha,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0. ox-alpha,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,23.392942163085937,0.00010208031325015381,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.9799918335749399 ox-alpha,snap,93,93,1.0,71.8537634408602,0.4892323148995972,,0.8709677419354839,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.9139784946236559,0.9032258064516129,0.9224348876641922 ox-alpha,ssi,97,97,1.0,96.5,0.0,,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846,0.9896907216494846 -ox-alpha,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,107.43600560898004,0.1751925845483012,,0.6395348837209303,0.6744186046511628,0.7790697674418605,0.8488372093023255,0.7354651162790697,0.8923746798087322 +ox-alpha,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,87.40754708121806,0.1634743976858346,,0.6470588235294118,0.6823529411764706,0.788235294117647,0.8588235294117647,0.7441176470588236,0.8971675584365976 ox-alpha,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,45.65407537246238,0.717552980967496,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8367346938775511,0.8214285714285714,0.8580004728835212 ox-alpha,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -qwen-3.7-max,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1274.8403671636813,0.5348992618894934,,0.45121951219512196,0.4634146341463415,0.5365853658536586,0.5853658536585366,0.5091463414634146,0.6988004444287399 +qwen-3.7-max,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1087.3418422418906,0.5540419398273054,,0.46835443037974683,0.4810126582278481,0.5569620253164557,0.5949367088607594,0.5253164556962026,0.7001634330728224 qwen-3.7-max,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,369.4145165392817,0.40785543409849506,,0.7755102040816326,0.7857142857142857,0.7857142857142857,0.7959183673469388,0.7857142857142856,0.8317713288256792 qwen-3.7-max,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 qwen-3.7-max,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -qwen-3.7-max,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,334.2605524236506,0.04263406947771043,,0.7373737373737373,0.8080808080808081,0.8686868686868687,0.9191919191919192,0.8333333333333334,0.9728692285141842 +qwen-3.7-max,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,336.5307187243009,0.04194101630112751,,0.7684210526315789,0.8421052631578947,0.8947368421052632,0.9157894736842105,0.8552631578947367,0.9739524214550894 qwen-3.7-max,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.096045197740113,,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887,0.903954802259887 qwen-3.7-max,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.02631578947368421,,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158,0.9736842105263158 qwen-3.7-max,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.10526315789473684,,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632,0.8947368421052632 @@ -806,14 +806,14 @@ qwen-3.7-max,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.01,,0.99,0.99,0.9 qwen-3.7-max,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,96.83744475097657,0.2059975897273345,,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.9635201928218131 qwen-3.7-max,snap,93,93,1.0,414.3333333333333,1.2063119918995897,,0.8172043010752689,0.8172043010752689,0.8387096774193549,0.8387096774193549,0.8279569892473119,0.8679149704672419 qwen-3.7-max,ssi,97,97,1.0,161.4020618556701,0.5232690124858116,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.979381443298969,0.979381443298969,0.9742268041237113,0.9789016698456533 -qwen-3.7-max,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,459.5964441394807,0.4528242520786607,,0.5348837209302325,0.5348837209302325,0.5465116279069767,0.5581395348837209,0.5436046511627907,0.7302575686093454 +qwen-3.7-max,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,452.5277550172245,0.4580332992754896,,0.5411764705882353,0.5411764705882353,0.5529411764705883,0.5647058823529412,0.55,0.7306342680444039 qwen-3.7-max,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,98.95411766305261,0.9676512169222556,,0.8061224489795918,0.8061224489795918,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8112244897959184,0.8250067738900787 qwen-3.7-max,tanf,100,100,1.0,60.64958984375,1.0,,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99 -qwen3.8-max,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,82,82,1.0,1888.948673780488,1.3163388445365902,,0.5,0.5,0.524390243902439,0.5365853658536586,0.5152439024390244,0.6484186688049249 +qwen3.8-max,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,79,79,1.0,1711.799140130538,1.391391758761768,,0.5189873417721519,0.5189873417721519,0.5443037974683544,0.5569620253164557,0.5348101265822784,0.6556038865143431 qwen3.8-max,federal_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,767.3067765590123,0.6106816981178466,,0.673469387755102,0.673469387755102,0.6836734693877551,0.6836734693877551,0.6785714285714286,0.7185520154782343 qwen3.8-max,free_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.02,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 qwen3.8-max,local_income_tax,100,100,1.0,0.0,,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 -qwen3.8-max,payroll_tax,99,99,1.0,536.3627629073943,0.11577566414914295,,0.7171717171717171,0.7474747474747475,0.8080808080808081,0.8484848484848485,0.7803030303030303,0.9291407444591758 +qwen3.8-max,payroll_tax,95,95,1.0,550.8215041889391,0.12071392001673044,,0.7473684210526316,0.7789473684210526,0.8210526315789474,0.8421052631578947,0.7973684210526315,0.927965044861761 qwen3.8-max,person_chip_eligible,177,177,1.0,0.07909604519774012,,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598,0.9209039548022598 qwen3.8-max,person_early_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 qwen3.8-max,person_head_start_eligible,38,38,1.0,0.13157894736842105,,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579,0.868421052631579 @@ -824,6 +824,6 @@ qwen3.8-max,reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,100,100,1.0,0.0,,1.0,1.0,1.0,1.0 qwen3.8-max,self_employment_tax,100,100,1.0,85.60206276855467,0.43511756292674586,,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.925,0.9551905949658603 qwen3.8-max,snap,93,93,1.0,662.9677419354839,2.919012327941218,,0.8279569892473119,0.8279569892473119,0.8279569892473119,0.8279569892473119,0.8279569892473119,0.8428620760225537 qwen3.8-max,ssi,97,97,1.0,285.1505154639175,0.8968785471055618,,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9690721649484536,0.9711983804720503 -qwen3.8-max,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,86,86,1.0,352.56610949649365,0.4701372619468074,,0.6162790697674418,0.6395348837209303,0.6744186046511628,0.7093023255813954,0.6598837209302325,0.8070404676544418 +qwen3.8-max,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,85,85,1.0,345.12212231961416,0.4766805271117537,,0.6235294117647059,0.6470588235294118,0.6823529411764706,0.7176470588235294,0.6676470588235294,0.8080689740052397 qwen3.8-max,state_refundable_credits,98,98,1.0,94.59093450526802,0.9250063908137852,,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8163265306122449,0.8301008669933864 qwen3.8-max,tanf,100,100,1.0,93.16958984375,1.0,,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98 diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md index d80bb199..2a8a2273 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/report.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ This report is generated by `policybench analyze` from no-tools benchmark result ## Headline -Top model: `gpt-6-sol` with `bounded_score=0.980` and `within_1pct=0.959`. +Top model: `gpt-6-sol` with `bounded_score=0.981` and `within_1pct=0.965`. ## Usage @@ -67,52 +67,52 @@ Cumulative request-time: `11326.1 min` (summed across concurrent calls; not wall | model | mean_score | mean_exact | mean_within_1pct | mean_within_5pct | mean_within_10pct | mean_binary_accuracy | mean_mae | total_n | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | -| gpt-6-sol | 0.981 | 0.959 | 0.963 | 0.970 | 0.973 | 0.996 | 21.099 | 1928 | -| claude-opus-5.5 | 0.981 | 0.958 | 0.965 | 0.970 | 0.976 | 0.988 | 27.669 | 1928 | -| gpt-6-luna | 0.977 | 0.946 | 0.955 | 0.967 | 0.972 | 0.989 | 24.141 | 1928 | -| claude-sonnet-5.5 | 0.970 | 0.942 | 0.948 | 0.958 | 0.963 | 0.984 | 29.597 | 1928 | -| gpt-6-astra | 0.981 | 0.953 | 0.960 | 0.965 | 0.968 | 0.988 | 25.735 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.6-sol | 0.977 | 0.954 | 0.958 | 0.967 | 0.969 | 0.991 | 33.082 | 1928 | -| grok-4.7 | 0.974 | 0.928 | 0.941 | 0.953 | 0.962 | 0.984 | 42.964 | 1928 | -| claude-fable-5.1 | 0.978 | 0.948 | 0.957 | 0.965 | 0.971 | 0.985 | 40.483 | 1928 | -| inkling | 0.968 | 0.924 | 0.936 | 0.945 | 0.953 | 0.993 | 52.122 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.8-flash | 0.972 | 0.922 | 0.926 | 0.948 | 0.956 | 0.990 | 60.429 | 1928 | -| gpt-6.1-sol | 0.979 | 0.952 | 0.954 | 0.961 | 0.967 | 0.985 | 26.741 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.6-flash | 0.968 | 0.909 | 0.914 | 0.934 | 0.942 | 0.991 | 63.156 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.6-terra | 0.964 | 0.925 | 0.934 | 0.945 | 0.954 | 0.985 | 54.846 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.5 | 0.965 | 0.925 | 0.930 | 0.944 | 0.953 | 0.975 | 52.641 | 1928 | -| deepseek-v4.1-flash | 0.966 | 0.921 | 0.931 | 0.946 | 0.953 | 0.982 | 47.408 | 1928 | -| grok-4.6 | 0.968 | 0.921 | 0.929 | 0.941 | 0.949 | 0.986 | 65.404 | 1928 | -| ox-alpha | 0.960 | 0.923 | 0.932 | 0.941 | 0.950 | 0.979 | 57.695 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.6-luna | 0.958 | 0.926 | 0.933 | 0.941 | 0.949 | 0.982 | 90.130 | 1928 | -| kimi-k3 | 0.945 | 0.917 | 0.925 | 0.934 | 0.936 | 0.950 | 29.075 | 1928 | -| grok-4.5 | 0.960 | 0.915 | 0.921 | 0.932 | 0.941 | 0.988 | 68.676 | 1928 | -| deepseek-v4-pro-0813 | 0.962 | 0.911 | 0.920 | 0.933 | 0.940 | 0.993 | 82.369 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.7-flash | 0.960 | 0.909 | 0.913 | 0.929 | 0.936 | 0.989 | 85.695 | 1928 | -| deepseek-v4-flash-0731 | 0.949 | 0.900 | 0.907 | 0.926 | 0.931 | 0.988 | 105.486 | 1928 | -| claude-opus-5 | 0.955 | 0.908 | 0.912 | 0.922 | 0.935 | 0.982 | 93.798 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0.955 | 0.901 | 0.904 | 0.916 | 0.926 | 0.985 | 87.154 | 1928 | -| claude-fable-5 | 0.955 | 0.908 | 0.912 | 0.924 | 0.934 | 0.978 | 93.963 | 1928 | -| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.959 | 0.900 | 0.903 | 0.917 | 0.930 | 0.992 | 84.151 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.5-flash | 0.953 | 0.894 | 0.898 | 0.909 | 0.921 | 0.986 | 97.026 | 1928 | -| deepseek-v4-pro | 0.949 | 0.893 | 0.898 | 0.918 | 0.930 | 0.980 | 89.015 | 1928 | -| grok-build-0.1 | 0.944 | 0.892 | 0.898 | 0.908 | 0.918 | 0.986 | 113.500 | 1928 | -| claude-sonnet-4.6 | 0.944 | 0.894 | 0.900 | 0.920 | 0.930 | 0.949 | 66.821 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.5-flash-lite | 0.930 | 0.894 | 0.898 | 0.904 | 0.911 | 0.960 | 176.527 | 1928 | -| claude-opus-4.7 | 0.929 | 0.883 | 0.888 | 0.897 | 0.909 | 0.935 | 113.241 | 1928 | -| glm-5.3 | 0.916 | 0.871 | 0.881 | 0.893 | 0.899 | 0.933 | 99.894 | 1928 | -| gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview | 0.933 | 0.889 | 0.897 | 0.903 | 0.911 | 0.976 | 165.370 | 1928 | -| grok-4.3 | 0.936 | 0.899 | 0.907 | 0.912 | 0.921 | 0.971 | 180.197 | 1928 | -| qwen-3.7-max | 0.915 | 0.869 | 0.875 | 0.885 | 0.892 | 0.951 | 181.704 | 1928 | -| glm-5.2 | 0.884 | 0.841 | 0.846 | 0.864 | 0.871 | 0.913 | 94.059 | 1928 | -| claude-opus-4.8 | 0.917 | 0.874 | 0.878 | 0.885 | 0.895 | 0.914 | 133.447 | 1928 | -| claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.898 | 0.861 | 0.867 | 0.874 | 0.881 | 0.923 | 233.201 | 1928 | -| qwen3.8-max | 0.898 | 0.861 | 0.864 | 0.871 | 0.877 | 0.935 | 264.844 | 1928 | -| claude-sonnet-5 | 0.916 | 0.871 | 0.878 | 0.883 | 0.890 | 0.941 | 168.369 | 1928 | -| minimax-m3 | 0.910 | 0.880 | 0.886 | 0.898 | 0.900 | 0.962 | 333.132 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.4-mini | 0.889 | 0.855 | 0.864 | 0.866 | 0.872 | 0.918 | 258.998 | 1928 | -| gpt-5.4-nano | 0.883 | 0.843 | 0.847 | 0.856 | 0.864 | 0.932 | 360.226 | 1928 | -| kimi-k2.6 | 0.771 | 0.760 | 0.761 | 0.765 | 0.769 | 0.905 | 223.785 | 1928 | +| gpt-6-sol | 0.982 | 0.962 | 0.966 | 0.973 | 0.974 | 0.996 | 19.567 | 1920 | +| claude-opus-5.5 | 0.982 | 0.963 | 0.969 | 0.973 | 0.976 | 0.988 | 24.878 | 1920 | +| gpt-6-luna | 0.977 | 0.949 | 0.957 | 0.970 | 0.973 | 0.989 | 21.625 | 1920 | +| claude-sonnet-5.5 | 0.971 | 0.946 | 0.951 | 0.961 | 0.963 | 0.984 | 26.213 | 1920 | +| gpt-6-astra | 0.981 | 0.955 | 0.961 | 0.966 | 0.969 | 0.988 | 23.408 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.6-sol | 0.977 | 0.957 | 0.961 | 0.969 | 0.971 | 0.991 | 29.822 | 1920 | +| grok-4.7 | 0.974 | 0.931 | 0.943 | 0.956 | 0.963 | 0.984 | 39.821 | 1920 | +| claude-fable-5.1 | 0.978 | 0.952 | 0.960 | 0.968 | 0.971 | 0.985 | 37.642 | 1920 | +| inkling | 0.968 | 0.927 | 0.938 | 0.947 | 0.953 | 0.993 | 50.094 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.8-flash | 0.972 | 0.925 | 0.930 | 0.951 | 0.957 | 0.990 | 56.120 | 1920 | +| gpt-6.1-sol | 0.979 | 0.954 | 0.956 | 0.962 | 0.967 | 0.985 | 24.459 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.6-flash | 0.968 | 0.911 | 0.916 | 0.936 | 0.943 | 0.991 | 59.644 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.6-terra | 0.964 | 0.929 | 0.938 | 0.948 | 0.955 | 0.985 | 53.158 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.5 | 0.965 | 0.928 | 0.932 | 0.946 | 0.954 | 0.975 | 47.778 | 1920 | +| deepseek-v4.1-flash | 0.966 | 0.924 | 0.932 | 0.947 | 0.954 | 0.982 | 44.587 | 1920 | +| grok-4.6 | 0.968 | 0.924 | 0.931 | 0.944 | 0.949 | 0.986 | 62.469 | 1920 | +| ox-alpha | 0.960 | 0.927 | 0.935 | 0.944 | 0.952 | 0.979 | 53.543 | 1920 | +| kimi-k3 | 0.945 | 0.919 | 0.927 | 0.936 | 0.937 | 0.950 | 26.156 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.6-luna | 0.958 | 0.929 | 0.936 | 0.944 | 0.950 | 0.982 | 88.479 | 1920 | +| grok-4.5 | 0.960 | 0.919 | 0.924 | 0.934 | 0.941 | 0.988 | 64.336 | 1920 | +| deepseek-v4-pro-0813 | 0.962 | 0.915 | 0.922 | 0.933 | 0.940 | 0.993 | 80.243 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.7-flash | 0.960 | 0.912 | 0.916 | 0.931 | 0.937 | 0.989 | 81.970 | 1920 | +| deepseek-v4-flash-0731 | 0.949 | 0.904 | 0.911 | 0.929 | 0.932 | 0.988 | 102.568 | 1920 | +| claude-opus-5 | 0.955 | 0.911 | 0.915 | 0.926 | 0.936 | 0.982 | 86.760 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0.955 | 0.903 | 0.907 | 0.918 | 0.926 | 0.985 | 83.412 | 1920 | +| claude-fable-5 | 0.955 | 0.911 | 0.915 | 0.928 | 0.935 | 0.978 | 90.654 | 1920 | +| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.959 | 0.903 | 0.905 | 0.919 | 0.931 | 0.992 | 80.567 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.5-flash | 0.953 | 0.896 | 0.901 | 0.912 | 0.922 | 0.986 | 92.296 | 1920 | +| deepseek-v4-pro | 0.949 | 0.896 | 0.900 | 0.920 | 0.931 | 0.980 | 85.960 | 1920 | +| grok-build-0.1 | 0.944 | 0.895 | 0.901 | 0.912 | 0.919 | 0.986 | 106.525 | 1920 | +| claude-sonnet-4.6 | 0.945 | 0.897 | 0.903 | 0.924 | 0.931 | 0.949 | 63.579 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.5-flash-lite | 0.930 | 0.898 | 0.901 | 0.907 | 0.912 | 0.960 | 174.048 | 1920 | +| claude-opus-4.7 | 0.930 | 0.887 | 0.891 | 0.901 | 0.911 | 0.935 | 104.134 | 1920 | +| glm-5.3 | 0.916 | 0.874 | 0.884 | 0.896 | 0.900 | 0.933 | 93.046 | 1920 | +| grok-4.3 | 0.937 | 0.903 | 0.911 | 0.915 | 0.922 | 0.971 | 176.677 | 1920 | +| gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview | 0.932 | 0.892 | 0.900 | 0.906 | 0.912 | 0.976 | 161.521 | 1920 | +| qwen-3.7-max | 0.915 | 0.872 | 0.878 | 0.888 | 0.892 | 0.951 | 171.021 | 1920 | +| glm-5.2 | 0.885 | 0.844 | 0.848 | 0.866 | 0.873 | 0.913 | 82.945 | 1920 | +| claude-opus-4.8 | 0.917 | 0.878 | 0.882 | 0.889 | 0.896 | 0.914 | 128.332 | 1920 | +| claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.898 | 0.864 | 0.870 | 0.876 | 0.881 | 0.923 | 232.660 | 1920 | +| qwen3.8-max | 0.898 | 0.864 | 0.867 | 0.873 | 0.878 | 0.935 | 255.392 | 1920 | +| minimax-m3 | 0.912 | 0.883 | 0.890 | 0.902 | 0.902 | 0.962 | 297.407 | 1920 | +| claude-sonnet-5 | 0.917 | 0.874 | 0.882 | 0.887 | 0.893 | 0.941 | 160.295 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.4-mini | 0.890 | 0.858 | 0.867 | 0.869 | 0.874 | 0.918 | 242.369 | 1920 | +| gpt-5.4-nano | 0.884 | 0.845 | 0.849 | 0.859 | 0.866 | 0.932 | 336.759 | 1920 | +| kimi-k2.6 | 0.773 | 0.762 | 0.762 | 0.767 | 0.771 | 0.905 | 223.800 | 1920 | ## Population household-impact weights (headline) @@ -120,52 +120,52 @@ Households receive equal weight. The score is a weighted average of row scores: | model | bounded_score | amount_accuracy | participation_accuracy | | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | -| claude-fable-5 | 0.929 | 0.808 | 0.967 | -| claude-fable-5.1 | 0.966 | 0.895 | 0.983 | -| claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.836 | 0.640 | 0.918 | -| claude-opus-4.7 | 0.899 | 0.813 | 0.941 | -| claude-opus-4.8 | 0.849 | 0.766 | 0.928 | -| claude-opus-5 | 0.931 | 0.814 | 0.968 | -| claude-opus-5.5 | 0.976 | 0.885 | 0.987 | -| claude-sonnet-4.6 | 0.909 | 0.848 | 0.951 | -| claude-sonnet-5 | 0.825 | 0.757 | 0.927 | -| claude-sonnet-5.5 | 0.970 | 0.883 | 0.979 | -| deepseek-v4-flash-0731 | 0.931 | 0.824 | 0.965 | -| deepseek-v4-pro | 0.916 | 0.791 | 0.966 | -| deepseek-v4-pro-0813 | 0.935 | 0.823 | 0.977 | -| deepseek-v4.1-flash | 0.951 | 0.859 | 0.975 | -| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.925 | 0.793 | 0.977 | -| gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview | 0.891 | 0.734 | 0.952 | -| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0.930 | 0.766 | 0.975 | -| gemini-3.5-flash | 0.920 | 0.766 | 0.972 | -| gemini-3.5-flash-lite | 0.900 | 0.658 | 0.945 | -| gemini-3.6-flash | 0.952 | 0.848 | 0.981 | -| gemini-3.7-flash | 0.935 | 0.784 | 0.976 | -| gemini-3.8-flash | 0.963 | 0.844 | 0.982 | -| glm-5.2 | 0.869 | 0.733 | 0.900 | -| glm-5.3 | 0.896 | 0.795 | 0.931 | -| gpt-5.4-mini | 0.813 | 0.504 | 0.908 | -| gpt-5.4-nano | 0.757 | 0.495 | 0.901 | -| gpt-5.5 | 0.951 | 0.879 | 0.970 | -| gpt-5.6-luna | 0.946 | 0.836 | 0.968 | -| gpt-5.6-sol | 0.969 | 0.887 | 0.983 | -| gpt-5.6-terra | 0.952 | 0.866 | 0.973 | -| gpt-6-astra | 0.970 | 0.909 | 0.987 | -| gpt-6-luna | 0.974 | 0.890 | 0.982 | -| gpt-6-sol | 0.980 | 0.905 | 0.987 | -| gpt-6.1-sol | 0.956 | 0.898 | 0.982 | -| grok-4.3 | 0.891 | 0.694 | 0.949 | -| grok-4.5 | 0.937 | 0.811 | 0.976 | -| grok-4.6 | 0.949 | 0.834 | 0.979 | -| grok-4.7 | 0.968 | 0.882 | 0.981 | -| grok-build-0.1 | 0.911 | 0.787 | 0.963 | -| inkling | 0.964 | 0.856 | 0.978 | -| kimi-k2.6 | 0.695 | 0.282 | 0.780 | -| kimi-k3 | 0.946 | 0.854 | 0.951 | -| minimax-m3 | 0.821 | 0.507 | 0.923 | -| ox-alpha | 0.949 | 0.832 | 0.968 | -| qwen-3.7-max | 0.873 | 0.726 | 0.937 | -| qwen3.8-max | 0.830 | 0.606 | 0.915 | +| claude-fable-5 | 0.930 | 0.808 | 0.967 | +| claude-fable-5.1 | 0.967 | 0.895 | 0.983 | +| claude-haiku-4.5 | 0.837 | 0.624 | 0.918 | +| claude-opus-4.7 | 0.901 | 0.813 | 0.941 | +| claude-opus-4.8 | 0.850 | 0.761 | 0.928 | +| claude-opus-5 | 0.932 | 0.812 | 0.968 | +| claude-opus-5.5 | 0.977 | 0.886 | 0.987 | +| claude-sonnet-4.6 | 0.910 | 0.847 | 0.951 | +| claude-sonnet-5 | 0.826 | 0.752 | 0.927 | +| claude-sonnet-5.5 | 0.971 | 0.883 | 0.979 | +| deepseek-v4-flash-0731 | 0.932 | 0.820 | 0.965 | +| deepseek-v4-pro | 0.917 | 0.788 | 0.966 | +| deepseek-v4-pro-0813 | 0.936 | 0.820 | 0.977 | +| deepseek-v4.1-flash | 0.951 | 0.856 | 0.974 | +| gemini-3-flash-preview | 0.928 | 0.800 | 0.977 | +| gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview | 0.892 | 0.721 | 0.952 | +| gemini-3.1-pro-preview | 0.931 | 0.764 | 0.974 | +| gemini-3.5-flash | 0.921 | 0.765 | 0.972 | +| gemini-3.5-flash-lite | 0.901 | 0.644 | 0.945 | +| gemini-3.6-flash | 0.954 | 0.847 | 0.981 | +| gemini-3.7-flash | 0.936 | 0.781 | 0.976 | +| gemini-3.8-flash | 0.964 | 0.842 | 0.982 | +| glm-5.2 | 0.870 | 0.726 | 0.901 | +| glm-5.3 | 0.898 | 0.796 | 0.931 | +| gpt-5.4-mini | 0.817 | 0.498 | 0.909 | +| gpt-5.4-nano | 0.765 | 0.497 | 0.902 | +| gpt-5.5 | 0.952 | 0.880 | 0.970 | +| gpt-5.6-luna | 0.946 | 0.832 | 0.968 | +| gpt-5.6-sol | 0.970 | 0.887 | 0.983 | +| gpt-5.6-terra | 0.953 | 0.863 | 0.973 | +| gpt-6-astra | 0.971 | 0.908 | 0.986 | +| gpt-6-luna | 0.975 | 0.888 | 0.982 | +| gpt-6-sol | 0.981 | 0.903 | 0.986 | +| gpt-6.1-sol | 0.957 | 0.897 | 0.982 | +| grok-4.3 | 0.893 | 0.679 | 0.949 | +| grok-4.5 | 0.938 | 0.809 | 0.976 | +| grok-4.6 | 0.950 | 0.833 | 0.979 | +| grok-4.7 | 0.969 | 0.881 | 0.981 | +| grok-build-0.1 | 0.913 | 0.789 | 0.963 | +| inkling | 0.965 | 0.855 | 0.978 | +| kimi-k2.6 | 0.702 | 0.276 | 0.783 | +| kimi-k3 | 0.946 | 0.853 | 0.951 | +| minimax-m3 | 0.829 | 0.506 | 0.926 | +| ox-alpha | 0.950 | 0.831 | 0.968 | +| qwen-3.7-max | 0.875 | 0.726 | 0.937 | +| qwen3.8-max | 0.832 | 0.597 | 0.916 | ## Summary by variable @@ -174,11 +174,11 @@ Amount variables use the tolerance columns. Binary coverage flags use `mean_accu | variable | metric_type | mean_score | mean_exact | mean_within_1pct | mean_within_5pct | mean_within_10pct | mean_accuracy | mean_mae | total_n | | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | -| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.827 | 0.616 | 0.636 | 0.687 | 0.718 | n/a | 826.301 | 3772 | +| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.829 | 0.640 | 0.657 | 0.706 | 0.731 | n/a | 746.062 | 3634 | | federal_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.919 | 0.868 | 0.880 | 0.893 | 0.904 | n/a | 173.006 | 4508 | | free_school_meals_eligible | binary_accuracy | 0.980 | 0.980 | 0.980 | 0.980 | 0.980 | 0.980 | 0.017 | 4600 | | local_income_tax | amount_tolerance | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.993 | 0.993 | n/a | 6.366 | 4600 | -| payroll_tax | amount_tolerance | 0.950 | 0.785 | 0.819 | 0.866 | 0.907 | n/a | 269.028 | 4554 | +| payroll_tax | amount_tolerance | 0.951 | 0.810 | 0.842 | 0.887 | 0.908 | n/a | 261.854 | 4370 | | person_chip_eligible | binary_accuracy | 0.958 | 0.958 | 0.958 | 0.958 | 0.958 | 0.958 | 0.036 | 8142 | | person_early_head_start_eligible | binary_accuracy | 0.983 | 0.983 | 0.983 | 0.983 | 0.983 | 0.983 | 0.011 | 1748 | | person_head_start_eligible | binary_accuracy | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.023 | 1748 | @@ -189,6 +189,6 @@ Amount variables use the tolerance columns. Binary coverage flags use `mean_accu | self_employment_tax | amount_tolerance | 0.976 | 0.970 | 0.975 | 0.976 | 0.976 | n/a | 23.083 | 4600 | | snap | amount_tolerance | 0.895 | 0.842 | 0.855 | 0.874 | 0.880 | n/a | 221.958 | 4278 | | ssi | amount_tolerance | 0.987 | 0.977 | 0.981 | 0.984 | 0.985 | n/a | 77.869 | 4462 | -| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.842 | 0.643 | 0.667 | 0.724 | 0.761 | n/a | 214.939 | 3956 | +| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.844 | 0.651 | 0.674 | 0.728 | 0.765 | n/a | 204.398 | 3910 | | state_refundable_credits | amount_tolerance | 0.855 | 0.819 | 0.820 | 0.825 | 0.828 | n/a | 61.134 | 4508 | | tanf | amount_tolerance | 0.988 | 0.985 | 0.985 | 0.985 | 0.985 | n/a | 43.135 | 4600 | diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_model.csv b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_model.csv index 3d68303b..2662d573 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_model.csv +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_model.csv @@ -1,47 +1,47 @@ model,mean_score,mean_exact,mean_within_1pct,mean_within_5pct,mean_threshold_score,mean_mae,mean_mape,mean_within_10pct,mean_accuracy,mean_coverage,total_n,parsed_n,bounded_score,amount_accuracy,participation_accuracy,weighted_exact,weighted_within_1pct,weighted_within_5pct,weighted_within_10pct,weighted_threshold_score,equal_score,aggregate_score -gpt-6-sol,0.9814179607937498,0.9589805000560949,0.9634692750345306,0.9702588125549652,0.9663823939526416,21.09912763195815,0.18498827325090708,0.9728209881649759,0.9964036119003299,1.0,1928,1928,0.980299198559808,0.9050395821621691,0.9865145228215768,0.9500349913571872,0.9586029750969454,0.9642213904089867,0.9706811228110646,0.9608851199185459,0.9811661086475718,0.9762659140116118 -claude-opus-5.5,0.9814448136513197,0.958258316413452,0.9651014543762297,0.9702848474536346,0.9673100449390701,27.669246843538268,0.12008490885512936,0.9755955615129643,0.9884163237647366,1.0,1928,1928,0.9760997380035821,0.8847610305356218,0.9870331950207469,0.9369749019238288,0.9488831885276894,0.9574625086459541,0.9687372623411001,0.9530144653596432,0.9824218821638284,0.9652829756190323 -gpt-6-luna,0.9770199089499402,0.9458698495329028,0.9545127814671976,0.9674735618476203,0.9599362717993171,24.1405419381156,0.14365023511775513,0.9718888943495477,0.9890609499636592,1.0,1928,1928,0.9741637983000545,0.8902870586912563,0.9823651452282157,0.9209699160500828,0.9381308317526569,0.9573666125898856,0.9669276653615521,0.9458487564385443,0.9762892388464636,0.9658375040261253 -claude-sonnet-5.5,0.9703463446957241,0.9419961273885191,0.9481549513188592,0.9579233321066063,0.9527302317472928,29.59684454331689,0.3435271866046292,0.9628465161751865,0.9843879780645893,1.0,1928,1928,0.9701245986422122,0.8834868732193254,0.979253112033195,0.9208077168426426,0.9310611423025681,0.9471230799077293,0.9613462720532719,0.9400845527765529,0.9710188357168519,0.9635664323242513 -gpt-6-astra,0.9811217521873845,0.952509735548159,0.9598385979230696,0.9652656515296331,0.9615140737573802,25.734785123180995,0.3288491259277409,0.9684423100286589,0.9883762938567011,1.0,1928,1928,0.9698446045414372,0.9089705409272095,0.9865145228215768,0.9167398399934551,0.926704193695381,0.9391637338255535,0.9453781568309596,0.9319964810863374,0.9790228034968075,0.9649470446555626 -gpt-5.6-sol,0.9766275018846758,0.9540906197305199,0.9584201580909963,0.9670514001109426,0.9621166837338294,33.082150895497456,0.1607306632479988,0.9689045570028593,0.9906143887421841,1.0,1928,1928,0.9685553786104374,0.8873636850190184,0.9828838174273858,0.9357174672125771,0.9426182283296569,0.955545604572212,0.9587353434639426,0.9481541608945971,0.9760835621335312,0.9625081019145191 -grok-4.7,0.9736508321195915,0.9279123256586492,0.9405020442713456,0.9531764373091222,0.9458272584586077,42.963662721226775,0.16843953177851276,0.9617182265953136,0.9843209355108935,1.0,1928,1928,0.9676800515903546,0.8821664403772467,0.9808091286307054,0.883352356001671,0.908559540301881,0.9357550903955741,0.9484097272845778,0.919019178495926,0.9751010633997181,0.9494464709931986 -claude-fable-5.1,0.9781482986920358,0.9478705738728485,0.9566448890743803,0.9652318935490762,0.9602142143821868,40.48275514642431,0.22595937599340182,0.9711095010324422,0.9847457446743875,1.0,1928,1928,0.9661083374877115,0.8946044148481577,0.9828838174273858,0.9082809795026888,0.9224870514513555,0.9390559636414038,0.9506434828354557,0.9301168693577259,0.9770670579048212,0.9595755765726094 -inkling,0.9679351511049066,0.9241283869684912,0.935678127432821,0.9448523915547504,0.9394877701510475,52.122087619837494,0.23519227380274155,0.9532921746481272,0.9931973972110643,1.0,1928,1928,0.9639903404563158,0.8559774726592909,0.9782157676348547,0.8822006716270263,0.9022048592027716,0.916394075900917,0.9353534600182131,0.909038266687232,0.9674936961726915,0.9488438065306128 -gemini-3.8-flash,0.9716992672276967,0.9217597942040326,0.9259481738076948,0.9482326445207081,0.9380578090879934,60.42930149291984,0.30199753600331375,0.9562906238195379,0.989812424479932,1.0,1928,1928,0.9629217728031497,0.8442975314835007,0.9818464730290456,0.8594579492214984,0.8674176419758158,0.9127675751184425,0.9317056158315293,0.8928371955368216,0.972734728451396,0.9413556307999181 -gpt-6.1-sol,0.9787878895026749,0.9516662498186138,0.9542331178228779,0.9609206491504977,0.9584825134820816,26.74093784952796,0.11564146986446056,0.9671100371363366,0.9854903212797419,1.0,1928,1928,0.9558118540969375,0.8981716471310712,0.9823651452282157,0.905950906002756,0.9097537892746472,0.9220411569594783,0.9344346489403966,0.9180451252943195,0.9762099167131537,0.9522130134086377 -gemini-3.6-flash,0.9681412429532106,0.9086751193473108,0.9135583023805487,0.9343464827207113,0.9245540764731586,63.15553317811516,0.25823757803284125,0.9416364014440632,0.9908836664380654,1.0,1928,1928,0.9524952325919379,0.8482295728516276,0.9813278008298755,0.8309499152818556,0.8377568744351451,0.8790786893770673,0.8993339257104228,0.8617798512011227,0.968634418383436,0.9277137230652192 -gpt-5.6-terra,0.9638139933140464,0.92544673083851,0.9341488226960892,0.9445582875592233,0.9394983368834259,54.84621636313941,0.3372875240446065,0.9538395064398804,0.9849007217269194,1.0,1928,1928,0.9521005308051074,0.8659779297334677,0.9730290456431535,0.8769497703300592,0.8924375535140979,0.9133116919368196,0.9325789584167555,0.903819493549433,0.9628327732854907,0.9444338799439029 -gpt-5.5,0.9646404648991201,0.9246842273825712,0.9300484424336888,0.944254589550459,0.9380105257611654,52.64077923622599,0.2029228562987933,0.9530548436779421,0.9748611332623985,1.0,1928,1928,0.9512547300857929,0.8794634658357077,0.9699170124481328,0.8815164989242267,0.8886576150317778,0.915182660691513,0.9306851538766645,0.9040104821310454,0.9656883437448258,0.9373700993926879 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,0.9658652674175693,0.9212507257926723,0.931372195560965,0.945709082844094,0.93776153126703,47.40807539889512,0.21055902520764067,0.9527141208703891,0.9818471695970921,1.0,1928,1928,0.9505626593089697,0.8589675935210785,0.9745850622406639,0.870552377499924,0.8863835381257342,0.9150223230715568,0.9257265838043338,0.8994212056253872,0.9662068932038941,0.9296733787785436 -grok-4.6,0.9676153897191448,0.9207958098267345,0.9285686228014003,0.9414466753329932,0.9349519777565745,65.40430245665854,0.22042523237505246,0.94899680306517,0.9861025929917377,1.0,1928,1928,0.94910144673076,0.8344304283167924,0.9787344398340249,0.8640208736627577,0.8774845427809858,0.9003659610470429,0.9151445377859353,0.8892539788191804,0.9693291751539781,0.9180889964628234 -ox-alpha,0.9598755058341616,0.9228249998408226,0.9318973922993491,0.9407498610213584,0.9364622499463796,57.695123375040794,0.3047762404111062,0.9503767466239889,0.9793121180326922,1.0,1928,1928,0.9486340123268947,0.8323635545464565,0.9683609958506224,0.8849353035198623,0.8973663128671125,0.9141211107760786,0.9300044543189705,0.9066067953705059,0.9609317477776966,0.930757645749188 -gpt-5.6-luna,0.9584490092723846,0.9263787925574842,0.9331486733743601,0.941122535434566,0.9374785774755162,90.13009436971377,0.2941645526985832,0.9492643085356539,0.9820753882994114,1.0,1928,1928,0.9459529089279916,0.8361243267856716,0.9683609958506224,0.8930789108165669,0.9053600129749496,0.9170421014385453,0.9343828154470901,0.912465960169288,0.9566637176129394,0.9324597909831576 -kimi-k3,0.9453459258075978,0.9165886387942346,0.9246120720088958,0.9339523327469365,0.9277568208177936,29.07549217141032,0.1861176960492084,0.9358742397211081,0.9496126351396752,0.9691872786932749,1928,1870,0.9458318717784635,0.854467058832511,0.9512448132780082,0.9043471486856777,0.9148262667645122,0.9303337615499089,0.9346669844422065,0.9210435403605763,0.9460441860032874,0.9420423644201579 -grok-4.5,0.9598818070767913,0.9154385741064495,0.9207494734963861,0.9316092209912941,0.927198165721404,68.67606933804946,0.2744054398126192,0.9409953942914862,0.9883304796146132,1.0,1928,1928,0.9372547899612037,0.8109488737104825,0.9756224066390041,0.8508110483198444,0.8600850651724337,0.8814557170517974,0.9007512942777474,0.8732757812054557,0.9593331470997878,0.9023260230468467 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+gpt-5.4-nano,0.8842850907152262,0.8450558740940551,0.849238641138248,0.8587329651836556,0.8547215871480975,336.7592376138673,0.8475378959081858,0.8658588681764317,0.931785064965096,1.0,1920,1920,0.7648719022083158,0.4967651706194354,0.9020833333333333,0.6653551716384947,0.6756687766954123,0.701094996924366,0.7182672979607428,0.6900965608047539,0.8877063409820727,0.7262350819027238 +kimi-k2.6,0.772609633180548,0.761729482328527,0.7623022200146667,0.7669509211944598,0.765432522675958,223.8000695540359,0.34727207760822065,0.7707474671661781,0.9047195412668892,0.7933913916590262,1920,1537,0.7015831669810351,0.27550560101579513,0.7828125,0.6811125273246809,0.6813280164754684,0.69242877037135,0.6970697272234028,0.6879847603487255,0.7583422014219023,0.6341126941346399 diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_variable.csv b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_variable.csv index 5c4a5dad..300a5cbb 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_variable.csv +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/analysis/summary_by_variable.csv @@ -1,9 +1,9 @@ variable,mean_score,mean_exact,mean_within_1pct,mean_within_5pct,mean_threshold_score,mean_mae,mean_mape,mean_within_10pct,mean_accuracy,mean_coverage,total_n,parsed_n -federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.8270114441901764,0.616118769883351,0.6362672322375398,0.6871686108165429,0.6643027571580064,826.3006887051604,0.4798283353935361,0.7176564156945918,,0.9878048780487805,3772,3726 +federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.8291135864963634,0.639515685195377,0.6568519537699504,0.7063841496973032,0.6834755090809026,746.0624693943573,0.5060190880264016,0.7311502476609796,,0.988167308750688,3634,3591 federal_refundable_credits,0.9190875115986977,0.8684560780834072,0.8804347826086957,0.8926353149955635,0.8862577639751553,173.00560977562694,0.28203535783422007,0.9035048802129547,,0.9855811889973382,4508,4443 free_school_meals_eligible,0.9795652173913044,0.9795652173913044,0.9795652173913044,0.9795652173913044,0.9795652173913044,0.016597518325534345,,0.9795652173913044,0.9795652173913044,0.9960869565217392,4600,4582 local_income_tax,0.9930434782608696,0.9930434782608696,0.9930434782608696,0.9930434782608696,0.9930434782608696,6.366352173913043,,0.9930434782608696,,0.9947826086956522,4600,4576 -payroll_tax,0.9495457150909299,0.785024154589372,0.8188405797101449,0.8658322353974528,0.8442577953447519,269.0284228879276,0.05014541219683578,0.9073342116820378,,0.9855072463768116,4554,4488 +payroll_tax,0.9512885899304093,0.8100686498855836,0.8423340961098399,0.8874141876430207,0.8620137299771166,261.8543115967522,0.04877540285534813,0.9082379862700228,,0.985812356979405,4370,4308 person_chip_eligible,0.9579955784819455,0.9579955784819455,0.9579955784819455,0.9579955784819455,0.9579955784819455,0.0355996940768357,,0.9579955784819455,0.9579955784819455,0.9934905428641612,8142,8089 person_early_head_start_eligible,0.9834096109839817,0.9834096109839817,0.9834096109839817,0.9834096109839817,0.9834096109839817,0.010885026903333539,,0.9834096109839817,0.9834096109839817,0.994279176201373,1748,1738 person_head_start_eligible,0.9713958810068649,0.9713958810068649,0.9713958810068649,0.9713958810068649,0.9713958810068649,0.02288329519450801,,0.9713958810068649,0.9713958810068649,0.994279176201373,1748,1738 @@ -14,6 +14,6 @@ reduced_price_school_meals_eligible,0.9850000000000001,0.9850000000000001,0.9850 self_employment_tax,0.976146812550527,0.9704347826086956,0.9752173913043478,0.9756521739130435,0.9744021739130434,23.08262975507091,0.037295638672444176,0.9763043478260869,,0.9882608695652174,4600,4546 snap,0.8950815250162902,0.8419822346891072,0.8548387096774193,0.8740065451145395,0.8627279102384292,221.95803343535022,0.7373026265141042,0.8800841514726507,,0.9955586722767649,4278,4259 ssi,0.9870536611205077,0.9773644105782161,0.9807261317794712,0.9836396234872254,0.9815665620797849,77.86850121885766,0.24877145637345424,0.9845360824742267,,0.9952935903182428,4462,4441 -state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.8420508644142654,0.6430738119312437,0.6665824064711829,0.7237108190091001,0.6986223458038422,214.93925324059367,0.3869237269608064,0.7611223458038422,,0.9903943377148635,3956,3918 +state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,0.843582367032528,0.6506393861892583,0.6736572890025575,0.7283887468030691,0.7044757033248082,204.39797151554535,0.38899262134225543,0.7652173913043478,,0.9905370843989769,3910,3873 state_refundable_credits,0.854945577117676,0.8194321206743567,0.8198757763975155,0.8245341614906833,0.8230368234250223,61.134148706701154,0.947599145924913,0.8283052351375332,,0.9875776397515529,4508,4452 tanf,0.9882009832576173,0.9845652173913043,0.9850000000000001,0.9850000000000001,0.9850000000000001,43.13453546934715,0.6283439336657944,0.9854347826086957,,0.9952173913043478,4600,4578 diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json.gz b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json.gz index 9467415d..3bc51085 100644 Binary files a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json.gz and b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/data.json.gz differ diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json index e9370569..718d38e5 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "schema_version": 1, - "rule": "An output is excluded from scoring for every model when its reference depends on an engine input that the certified household data never carried and the prompt therefore never listed, and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way. Excluded outputs stay in the published payload, marked scored=false, so every prompt and response remains inspectable.", - "derivation": "All 1,984 references were recomputed with policyengine-us 1.755.4 (the version that produced them; base recompute matched the frozen CSV on every row) under each alternative reading; every output whose value moved is listed. 2026-09-05. On 2026-09-29 the references moved to policyengine-us 2.15.17 with the pre-freeze conventions. Every excluded output was recomputed there, and each one that moved was re-reviewed and stays excluded (the reference sidecar's engine_upgrade revision lists them). Records decided before that date keep the values they were decided on; the four records decided that day were computed on 2.15.17. The audit excluded one of them on review of the release. Its reference did not move, so the engine_upgrade revision does not list it (final_actions.json audit_exclusions).", + "rule": "An output is excluded from scoring for every model when its reference depends on an input or definition that the certified household data never carried and the prompt therefore never stated, and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way. Excluded outputs stay in the published payload, marked scored=false, so every prompt and response remains inspectable.", + "derivation": "All 1,984 references were recomputed with policyengine-us 1.755.4 (the version that produced them; base recompute matched the frozen CSV on every row) under each alternative reading; every output whose value moved is listed. 2026-09-05. On 2026-10-05 eight more outputs were excluded on review of release dashboard-data-20260930 (reference_audit/2026-10-05, reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b and reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll); their records are computed on policyengine-us 2.15.17, whose values are the references, and each sweep's baseline reproduced every scored reference. On 2026-09-29 the references moved to policyengine-us 2.15.17 with the pre-freeze conventions. Every excluded output was recomputed there, and each one that moved was re-reviewed and stays excluded (the reference sidecar's engine_upgrade revision lists them). Records decided before that date keep the values they were decided on; the four records decided that day were computed on 2.15.17. The audit excluded one of them on review of the release. Its reference did not move, so the engine_upgrade revision does not list it (final_actions.json audit_exclusions).", "exclusions": [ { "scenario_id": "scenario_007", @@ -730,7 +730,7 @@ "defect": "PolicyEngine deducts traditional IRA contributions without the active-participant phase-out", "law": "26 U.S.C. 219(g); IRS Notice 2025-67 (2026 ranges)", "upstream": "to be filed", - "note": "Corrected value applies r02_ira_219g_v2 with every publication convention and upstream fix. The output also moves under r25_niit_in_federal_output (unlisted input)." + "note": "Corrected value applies r02_ira_219g_v2 with every publication convention and upstream fix. The output also moves under r25_niit_in_federal_output (unlisted input). The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Connecticut withholding estimate ($12,010.05); with the engine's own liability ($11,917.18) the 2.15.17 value is $40,438.95, and with no state income tax paid it is $43,619.93. With r02's IRA fix on 2.15.17 the value is $40,423.18 under the withholding estimate, $40,445.46 under the liability and $43,629.21 with no state income tax paid. policyengine-us 2.15.17 also leaves the household's Connecticut paid leave contributions ($827.98) out of SALT (Rev. Rul. 2025-4); with them the 2.15.17 value is $40,217.95." }, { "scenario_id": "scenario_120", @@ -798,7 +798,7 @@ "decided_on": "2026-09-29", "decided_by": "developer", "unlisted_input": "whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom)", - "note": "Found in the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade (cluster salt_refund_gross_income_9122); investigator and an independent reviewer. Alternative computed on 2.15.17 with the refund left out of gross income (sweep/fixes/latest_alt_salt_refund_no_prior_benefit.py). The frozen value also counts Maryland county income tax, at the rate policyengine-us 2.15.17 assigns an unlisted county, in the federal SALT deduction through the Maryland withholding proxy (c_md_2026); the SALT cap binds at every 2026 county rate." + "note": "Found in the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade (cluster salt_refund_gross_income_9122); investigator and an independent reviewer. Alternative computed on 2.15.17 with the refund left out of gross income (sweep/fixes/latest_alt_salt_refund_no_prior_benefit.py). The frozen value also counts Maryland county income tax, at the rate policyengine-us 2.15.17 assigns an unlisted county, in the federal SALT deduction through the Maryland withholding proxy (c_md_2026); the SALT cap binds at every 2026 county rate. The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Maryland withholding estimate ($15,791.66); with the engine's own liability ($11,295.39) the 2.15.17 value is $24,799.16, and with no state income tax paid it is $27,290.70. The $40,400 cap that binds in the reference does not bind under the liability, so the liability value depends on the county, which the prompt does not state: $24,705.95 to $25,068.44 across Maryland's 24 county rates (the engine's default, Allegany, gives $24,799.16)." }, { "scenario_id": "scenario_117", @@ -813,6 +813,110 @@ "unlisted_input": "whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom)", "note": "Found in the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade (cluster salt_refund_gross_income_9122); investigator and an independent reviewer. Alternative computed on 2.15.17 with the refund left out of gross income (sweep/fixes/latest_alt_salt_refund_no_prior_benefit.py)." }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of California income tax withheld: California's single rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $17,624.75 of taxable Social Security, which California exempts) less California's single standard deduction, at California's 2025 amounts (ca_withheld_income_tax, under the c_ca_hold_2025 convention), $6,058.85. The same engine computes the household's California income tax before refundable credits as $2,505.87. Read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 11113.5703125, + "alternative_value": 11895.2275390625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,887.85 in the reference and $11,334.87 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $1,155.60, and the output is $12,192.29; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $192.60 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $12,234.66. The alternative uses the engine's California liability ($2,505.87), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($1,968.81, recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4) the output is $12,013.38. The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)). With them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate and $11,744.69 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer\" (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 1); the employer must pay at least 50 percent (small employers: at least a quarter of the full rate, subd. 5a), and employees pay through wage deductions only \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer\" (subd. 3), so the employee share runs from 0 to 0.44% of wages at the employer's choice. The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution $127.60), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 2346.10009765625, + "alternative_value": 2218.5, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a. The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Colorado FAMLI premiums are remitted by the employer (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2)), which \"may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium\" from wages (507(5)); an employer that deducts less is considered to have elected to pay the rest (7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)). The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (co_employee_famli_contribution $17.99), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 330.7310791015625, + "alternative_value": 312.74322509765625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2), (3)(b) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld: 5% of the person's whole federal AGI above the $4,400 single personal exemption (ma_withheld_income_tax), $8,484.41. The same engine computes the household's Massachusetts income tax before refundable credits as $8,238.41. Read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 26932.2734375, + "alternative_value": 26991.3125, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,127.41 in the reference and $13,881.41 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $853.00, and the output is $28,763.81. The alternative uses the engine's Massachusetts liability ($8,238.41), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($8,232.90) the output is $26,992.64. The output would also move if the employer deducted the employee share of the household's Massachusetts paid family and medical leave premium, which the law allows but does not require (this household's payroll tax output is excluded on that ground; reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll): policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves any such contributions out of SALT, though Rev. Rul. 2025-4 treats them as deductible state income taxes. With the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct ($805.01), the output is $26,739.07 under the withholding estimate and $26,798.11 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Massachusetts PFML contributions are remitted by the employer (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a)), which may deduct part of the contribution from wages (s. 6(c)): under the Department of Family and Medical Leave's published 2026 rates, up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution, though Acts 2026 c. 101 ss. 25-26 and 45 can be read to swap those caps for 2026 and may choose to deduct less (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)). The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let the employer deduct (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution $805.01), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 14192.662109375, + "alternative_value": 13387.65234375, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a), (c) and (d); 458 CMR 2.05(5). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. New York's covered employer must provide disability and Paid Family Leave coverage; it pays the disability cost beyond what it collects (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law s. 210(1)), no employer is required to fund Paid Family Leave (s. 209(3)(b)), and the employer \"is authorized to collect\" employee contributions up to the statutory caps by payroll deduction (s. 209(4)). The Workers' Compensation Board says an employer \"is allowed, but not required\" to collect them. The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution $31.20, ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution $411.91), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 8108.02734375, + "alternative_value": 7664.91748046875, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Virginia income tax withheld: Virginia's rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts) less Virginia's single standard deduction (va_withheld_income_tax), $5,367.30. The same engine computes the household's Virginia income tax before refundable credits as $3,514.15. Read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 10729.6123046875, + "alternative_value": 11137.306640625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $9,431.59 in the reference and $7,578.44 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $692.40, and the output is $11,758.09; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $115.40 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $11,783.48. The reference's medical deduction also includes a modeled Medicare Part B premium of $2,434.80, which the prompt does not list. Without it the output is $11,265.27 under the withholding estimate and $11,642.16 under the liability, and with no withholding, local sales tax or Part B premium it is $11,969.80 (the household then takes the standard deduction)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment and no Medicare Part B premium, and its rules say to treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and not to infer unlisted expenses or health coverage. The reference counts a modeled Part B premium as a medical expense: policyengine-us treats the head (age 69, so Medicare-eligible) as enrolled because takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, and medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums adds medicare_part_b_premium, the 2026 standard premium of $202.90 a month, $2,434.80, to the listed $10,000 of other medical expenses. The household itemizes, so the federal medical expense deduction (26 U.S.C. 213(a): expenses above 7.5% of AGI) counts it, and Virginia's itemized deductions, which start from the federal itemized deductions (va_itemized_deductions), carry it too. The prompt also says to assume program take-up when required, and a reader who takes a 69-year-old with Social Security retirement income to be enrolled in Part B and paying the standard premium gets the frozen value. But the benchmark sets take-up only for the programs its household data list (Medicaid, SSI, the ACA credit, the DC property tax credit, the EITC, SNAP and tax filing; policybench.scenarios.DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS), and Medicare is not among them; the Medicare request asks only whether the head is eligible; and the more specific rules against inferring unlisted expenses or health coverage point the other way. Read with no Part B premium paid, the deduction falls by $2,434.80 and the output is the alternative value.", + "frozen_value": 3514.14501953125, + "alternative_value": 3654.14599609375, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with each person's Medicare Part B premium at 0, and again with Medicare enrollment off (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references). Of 39 Medicare-eligible people in 33 households, the engine charges the premium in 30 (Medicare Savings Program coverage pays it for the 4 eligible people in the other 3); only this household's two tax outputs move, under either reading. The federal medical expense deduction is $4,441.86 in the reference ($12,434.80 of expenses less 7.5% of $106,572.56 AGI) and $2,007.06 without the premium; the household itemizes under both. The output also depends on the state income tax in the federal SALT deduction, which PolicyEngine/policybench#191 proposes to treat as an unlisted input (decision d963), through the federal itemization election, which Virginia follows (va_deductions reads tax_unit_itemizes). Without the premium the output is $3,654.15 under both the withholding estimate and the liability; with no state income tax paid it is $4,127.67, with or without the local sales tax estimate, because the household then takes the federal and Virginia standard deductions. With the premium it is $3,514.15 under all four readings. The premium is the standard premium: the engine reads the income-related adjustment from MAGI two years earlier, which no household sets, and at this household's 2026 MAGI ($106,572.56) none would apply. GPT-6 Astra ($3,654.16) and GPT-6.1 Sol ($3,654.66) answered within $1 of the alternative value, and no model within $1 of the frozen value." + }, { "scenario_id": "scenario_023", "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", diff --git a/paper/snapshot/20260501/us_impact_summary_by_model.csv b/paper/snapshot/20260501/us_impact_summary_by_model.csv index d34b2b5b..d7a013c2 100644 --- a/paper/snapshot/20260501/us_impact_summary_by_model.csv +++ b/paper/snapshot/20260501/us_impact_summary_by_model.csv @@ -1,47 +1,47 @@ model,mean_impact_score,mean_household_score,mean_household_coverage,households,total_variables,parsed_variables,floor_share -gpt-6-astra,0.9674395301873611,0.978257782717636,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6-sol,0.9662824005912722,0.9823887231923742,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6-luna,0.9658376159373622,0.9773386229254812,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-5.5,0.9608671065690544,0.9823954326352231,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-6.1-sol,0.9586945574651387,0.9752733926090379,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-sol,0.9581475169972634,0.9762335155147531,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-5.5,0.9580535920873353,0.9730704556439665,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-fable-5.1,0.9555813124174095,0.9779033840407823,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.7,0.9531030169930793,0.9758195364701391,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -inkling,0.95278940419871,0.9708083462322512,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.5,0.9444535880318884,0.9659348038436416,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4.1-flash,0.9437394502936982,0.9674174501414599,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-terra,0.9423390142779876,0.9651008738219248,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.8-flash,0.9395394036327269,0.9753939876195191,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.6,0.935512292170297,0.9706379118326355,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.6-flash,0.9340484471155557,0.9707033409108929,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -ox-alpha,0.9329622083651122,0.9639201283365196,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -kimi-k3,0.9312389646048008,0.9468695137686975,0.97,100,1928,1870,0.3 -grok-4.5,0.9248152464910463,0.9634117776809533,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-pro-0813,0.9245585396764721,0.966361343016232,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.6-luna,0.9221866400950565,0.9594239447421039,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-flash-0731,0.9187089252487097,0.9546492938053259,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3-flash-preview,0.9170555704087302,0.9608133948736268,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-4.6,0.9147170663321406,0.9450085166651927,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-4.7,0.9138626894667351,0.9333394692464237,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-fable-5,0.9118097137275345,0.9538040486732181,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-opus-5,0.9093403745672698,0.9565726626978903,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.7-flash,0.9068894551658637,0.9637007836479945,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-build-0.1,0.9035771268657874,0.9490575162370398,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.1-pro-preview,0.8996459348257337,0.9613824023677643,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -deepseek-v4-pro,0.8939788090152366,0.9531021316162993,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.5-flash,0.892262363142274,0.9566317304583035,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -glm-5.3,0.8870442747598982,0.9269952358769811,0.97,100,1928,1857,0.3 -claude-opus-4.8,0.8805442215879067,0.9191835487991205,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-sonnet-5,0.8639047411962291,0.9156874253444743,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,0.8621157646423028,0.9399938349552724,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -qwen-3.7-max,0.8542922488394893,0.9254172874391244,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -grok-4.3,0.8535754470989819,0.94337639429603,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -glm-5.2,0.8468008249398641,0.8985638347071989,0.9430477571052661,100,1928,1795,0.3 -qwen3.8-max,0.8163971792504239,0.906206350579505,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gemini-3.5-flash-lite,0.8140072027414716,0.9406660914684142,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -claude-haiku-4.5,0.7958926936620644,0.9088133283583146,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.4-mini,0.7565923451264394,0.9024786162568723,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -minimax-m3,0.7364968916060559,0.915496790900971,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -gpt-5.4-nano,0.6872355186399137,0.8911936267908885,1.0,100,1928,1928,0.3 -kimi-k2.6,0.5816850782720341,0.775441245816979,0.7944015327506267,100,1928,1538,0.3 +gpt-6-astra,0.9683122444817193,0.9784738250614189,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6-sol,0.9667129921990232,0.9825416199504653,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6-luna,0.9664167571502716,0.977394792016256,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-5.5,0.962246515529886,0.982664785613371,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-sol,0.9599111614346824,0.9765950579493266,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-6.1-sol,0.9594811057246667,0.975488445843518,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-5.5,0.9593949353595599,0.9733090827566719,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-fable-5.1,0.9569037993263287,0.9780947033412107,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.7,0.9544396463560192,0.9761065254261345,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +inkling,0.9537243518627281,0.9708950810157603,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.5,0.9463990239340224,0.9662756610360458,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4.1-flash,0.9449297542963264,0.9677712793442468,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-terra,0.9428227924598422,0.9653030686475066,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.8-flash,0.9413625215070209,0.9757756765309048,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.6,0.9370631371759138,0.9709023505552119,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.6-flash,0.9353602488202646,0.9710758545154309,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +ox-alpha,0.9349263306800009,0.9645184800680184,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +kimi-k3,0.9321859170038987,0.947074103380015,0.97,100,1920,1862,0.3 +grok-4.5,0.9265179738707723,0.9637656553313277,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-pro-0813,0.92592710415014,0.9666373591127111,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.6-luna,0.9214893430494332,0.9595527347680398,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3-flash-preview,0.9194570538721496,0.9616863739278441,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-flash-0731,0.9189428784905118,0.9549362454617714,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-4.7,0.9178204428076171,0.9341214404196417,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-4.6,0.9162129440743614,0.9452099117398467,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-fable-5,0.9137887992654609,0.9541658659499054,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-opus-5,0.9117042199103389,0.9569245656983695,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.7-flash,0.9080053412243946,0.9640672785413511,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-build-0.1,0.907229168647409,0.9495641986927762,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.1-pro-preview,0.9015422572930285,0.96182457021108,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +deepseek-v4-pro,0.894759815215543,0.9531689498921042,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.5-flash,0.8945050366123243,0.9571534285510584,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +glm-5.3,0.8897481095502663,0.9276676213475469,0.97,100,1920,1849,0.3 +claude-opus-4.8,0.8826928093313342,0.9195533132045565,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-sonnet-5,0.8666788054918853,0.9162508180749187,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview,0.8635748475506705,0.940345176887288,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +qwen-3.7-max,0.8582890324943854,0.9260164229773913,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +grok-4.3,0.8557494611738747,0.9440812980726867,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +glm-5.2,0.8465447008531164,0.8995325933970066,0.9433301746876838,100,1920,1788,0.3 +qwen3.8-max,0.822354297921981,0.9071986559772072,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gemini-3.5-flash-lite,0.8157005424440896,0.9412320459816107,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +claude-haiku-4.5,0.7972978664052773,0.9093026578365233,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.4-mini,0.7646496681088202,0.9044299489482875,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +minimax-m3,0.7486300831203856,0.9185494731869339,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +gpt-5.4-nano,0.6976458164890331,0.8943748089883199,1.0,100,1920,1920,0.3 +kimi-k2.6,0.5929836623884213,0.7777325674444523,0.796733767182861,100,1920,1537,0.3 diff --git a/policybench/paper_results.py b/policybench/paper_results.py index 23ad932d..663c36a3 100644 --- a/policybench/paper_results.py +++ b/policybench/paper_results.py @@ -66,6 +66,49 @@ # What each exclusion sweep re-run on the reference engine moves. RERUN_SWEEPS = UPGRADE_VERIFICATION / "rerun_sweeps.json" +# The 2026-10-05 review of release dashboard-data-20260930. Each of its three +# audits recomputed every output on the reference engine under readings of an +# input the prompt never states. Each entry names the sweep's CSV, the column +# holding the reference system's own value (the sweep's baseline), and the +# columns holding the readings and checks it ran. The records the review added +# carry ``decided_on`` = REVIEW_DATE. +REVIEW_DATE = "2026-10-05" +REVIEW_SWEEPS: dict[str, tuple[Path, str, tuple[str, ...]]] = { + # State income tax in the federal SALT deduction + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md). + "salt_withholding": ( + ROOT + / "reference_audit" + / "2026-10-05" + / "verification" + / "sweep_salt_withholding.csv", + "baseline", + ("liability", "net", "zero"), + ), + # Medicare enrollment and the Part B premium in medical expenses + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md). + "medicare_part_b": ( + ROOT + / "reference_audit" + / "2026-10-05-medicare-part-b" + / "verification" + / "sweep_part_b.csv", + "baseline", + ("no_part_b", "not_enrolled", "not_enrolled_direct", "irmaa_from_2026_income"), + ), + # The optional employer pass-through of state paid-leave premiums + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md). + "payroll_optional_shares": ( + ROOT + / "reference_audit" + / "2026-10-05-payroll" + / "verification" + / "sweep_payroll_scope.csv", + "final", + ("scoped",), + ), +} + NUMBER_WORDS = { 0: "no", 1: "one", @@ -120,6 +163,42 @@ def partition_rerun_sweep_moves( return groups +def partition_review_sweep_moves( + moves: list[tuple[str, str, str, float, float]], + excluded_before: frozenset[tuple[str, str]] | set[tuple[str, str]], + excluded_now: frozenset[tuple[str, str]] | set[tuple[str, str]], +) -> dict[str, list[tuple[str, str, str]]]: + """Split what the 2026-10-05 review's sweeps move. + + Each move is (sweep, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed) for one + reading or check whose value differs from the sweep's baseline. A move of + an output excluded before the review is ``excluded_before``; of an output + the review excluded, ``newly_excluded``; of an output still scored, + ``scored_beyond_tolerance`` or ``scored_within_tolerance``. Every move + lands in exactly one group, keyed (sweep, scenario_id, variable). + """ + groups: dict[str, list[tuple[str, str, str]]] = { + "excluded_before": [], + "newly_excluded": [], + "scored_beyond_tolerance": [], + "scored_within_tolerance": [], + } + for sweep, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed in moves: + output = (scenario_id, variable) + key = (sweep, scenario_id, variable) + if output in excluded_before: + groups["excluded_before"].append(key) + elif output in excluded_now: + groups["newly_excluded"].append(key) + elif moves_beyond_tolerance(variable, baseline, recomputed): + groups["scored_beyond_tolerance"].append(key) + else: + groups["scored_within_tolerance"].append(key) + if sum(len(group) for group in groups.values()) != len(moves): + raise AssertionError("review sweep partition lost or duplicated a move") + return groups + + def partition_engine_upgrade_changes( changes: list[dict], excluded: frozenset[tuple[str, str]] | set[tuple[str, str]] ) -> dict[str, list[dict]]: @@ -1493,6 +1572,214 @@ def rerun_sweep_new_excluded_outputs(self) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: def rerun_sweep_new_excluded_count_word(self) -> str: return NUMBER_WORDS[len(self.rerun_sweep_new_excluded_outputs)] + # ----- the 2026-10-05 review of release dashboard-data-20260930 ---------- + @property + def review_date(self) -> str: + return REVIEW_DATE + + @cached_property + def review_exclusions(self) -> list[dict]: + """Exclusion records the 2026-10-05 review added.""" + return [ + entry + for entry in self.reference_exclusions + if entry.get("decided_on") == REVIEW_DATE + ] + + @property + def review_exclusion_keys(self) -> frozenset[tuple[str, str]]: + return frozenset(exclusion_keys(self.review_exclusions)) + + @property + def excluded_before_review_keys(self) -> frozenset[tuple[str, str]]: + """Outputs excluded before the review: every record it did not add.""" + return self._excluded_output_keys - self.review_exclusion_keys + + @property + def review_new_exclusion_count(self) -> int: + return len(self.review_exclusions) + + @property + def review_new_exclusion_count_word(self) -> str: + return NUMBER_WORDS[self.review_new_exclusion_count] + + @property + def review_exclusion_engine_version(self) -> str: + """policyengine-us version the review's records were computed on.""" + versions = {entry["engine_version"] for entry in self.review_exclusions} + if len(versions) != 1: + raise ValueError(f"review records mix engine versions: {versions}") + return versions.pop().removeprefix("policyengine-us ") + + @property + def review_sweep_count(self) -> int: + return len(REVIEW_SWEEPS) + + @property + def review_sweep_count_word(self) -> str: + return NUMBER_WORDS[self.review_sweep_count] + + @cached_property + def review_sweep_rows(self) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: + """Each review sweep's CSV: every output, its frozen reference, the + sweep's baseline and its value under each reading.""" + return {name: pd.read_csv(path) for name, (path, _, _) in REVIEW_SWEEPS.items()} + + def _review_sweep_moves( + self, sweep: str | None = None + ) -> list[tuple[str, str, str, float, float]]: + """(sweep, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed) for every + reading or check that changes an output's value from the baseline.""" + moves = [] + for name, (_, baseline_column, readings) in REVIEW_SWEEPS.items(): + if sweep is not None and name != sweep: + continue + frame = self.review_sweep_rows[name] + for row in frame.itertuples(index=False): + baseline = float(getattr(row, baseline_column)) + for reading in readings: + recomputed = float(getattr(row, reading)) + if recomputed != baseline: + moves.append( + (name, row.scenario_id, row.variable, baseline, recomputed) + ) + return moves + + @cached_property + def review_sweep_partition(self) -> dict[str, list[tuple[str, str, str]]]: + return partition_review_sweep_moves( + self._review_sweep_moves(), + self.excluded_before_review_keys, + self._excluded_output_keys, + ) + + def review_sweep_moved_outputs(self, sweep: str) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + """Outputs a review sweep moves beyond the exact-match tolerance under + any of its readings, against its own baseline.""" + return sorted( + { + (scenario_id, variable) + for _, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed in ( + self._review_sweep_moves(sweep) + ) + if moves_beyond_tolerance(variable, baseline, recomputed) + } + ) + + def review_sweep_moved_count(self, sweep: str) -> int: + return len(self.review_sweep_moved_outputs(sweep)) + + def review_sweep_moved_count_word(self, sweep: str) -> str: + return NUMBER_WORDS[self.review_sweep_moved_count(sweep)] + + def review_sweep_moved_household_count_word(self, sweep: str) -> str: + """Households whose outputs a review sweep moves beyond tolerance.""" + households = {s for s, _ in self.review_sweep_moved_outputs(sweep)} + return NUMBER_WORDS[len(households)] + + def review_sweep_newly_excluded_count(self, sweep: str) -> int: + """Outputs the sweep moves that were scored before the review.""" + return sum( + output not in self.excluded_before_review_keys + for output in self.review_sweep_moved_outputs(sweep) + ) + + def review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word(self, sweep: str) -> str: + return NUMBER_WORDS[self.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count(sweep)] + + def review_sweep_already_excluded_count_word(self, sweep: str) -> str: + """Outputs the sweep moves that were already excluded.""" + return NUMBER_WORDS[ + self.review_sweep_moved_count(sweep) + - self.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count(sweep) + ] + + @property + def review_newly_excluded_moved_outputs(self) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + return sorted( + {(s, v) for _, s, v in self.review_sweep_partition["newly_excluded"]} + ) + + @property + def review_already_excluded_moved_outputs(self) -> list[tuple[str, str]]: + """Outputs excluded before the review that its sweeps also move.""" + return sorted( + {(s, v) for _, s, v in self.review_sweep_partition["excluded_before"]} + ) + + @property + def review_already_excluded_moved_count_word(self) -> str: + return NUMBER_WORDS[len(self.review_already_excluded_moved_outputs)] + + @property + def review_still_scored_moves_phrase(self) -> str: + """'no output that is still scored', or how many still-scored outputs + the review's sweeps move by any amount.""" + moved = { + (s, v) + for group in ("scored_beyond_tolerance", "scored_within_tolerance") + for _, s, v in self.review_sweep_partition[group] + } + count = len(moved) + if count in (0, 1): + return f"{NUMBER_WORDS[count]} output that is still scored" + return f"{NUMBER_WORDS.get(count, str(count))} outputs that are still scored" + + @property + def review_scored_before_count(self) -> int: + """References scored before the review, which every review sweep's + baseline reproduces (refuses a sweep whose baseline misses one, or + whose reference column is not the frozen reference).""" + run_dir = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "runs" / self.us_run_label + frozen = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + reference = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable): float(row.value) + for row in frozen.itertuples(index=False) + } + scored_before = set(reference) - self.excluded_before_review_keys + for name, (_, baseline_column, _) in REVIEW_SWEEPS.items(): + frame = self.review_sweep_rows[name] + rows = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable): ( + float(row.reference), + float(getattr(row, baseline_column)), + ) + for row in frame.itertuples(index=False) + } + if set(rows) != set(reference): + raise ValueError(f"review sweep {name} does not cover every output") + for key in scored_before: + swept_reference, baseline = rows[key] + if swept_reference != reference[key] or baseline != reference[key]: + raise ValueError( + f"review sweep {name}'s baseline does not reproduce {key}" + ) + return len(scored_before) + + @property + def review_scored_before_count_fmt(self) -> str: + return f"{self.review_scored_before_count:,}" + + @cached_property + def review_adjudications(self) -> list[dict]: + """The developer adjudications the review recorded.""" + annotation_dir = ROOT / self.manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["path"] + record = json.loads((annotation_dir / "us_adjudications.json").read_text()) + return [ + entry + for entry in record["adjudications"] + if entry.get("adjudicated_on") == REVIEW_DATE + ] + + @property + def review_judge_flagged_count(self) -> int: + """Review outputs a judge had flagged reference-suspect (the paper + says none had).""" + return sum( + bool(entry.get("judge_reference_suspect")) + for entry in self.review_adjudications + ) + @property def engine_upgrade_rechecked_count(self) -> int: """Excluded outputs whose value moved on the new engine and were diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json b/reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json index 1bd88d7c..c56a1a29 100644 --- a/reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json +++ b/reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json @@ -14,10 +14,16 @@ "committed_on": "2026-09-23" }, "2026-09-29": { - "commit": null, + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "pull_request": 182, + "committed_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "2026-10-05": { + "commit": null, + "release": "dashboard-data-20261006", "pull_request": null, - "adjudications_written_on": "2026-09-29" + "adjudications_written_on": "2026-10-06" } }, "cases": { @@ -133,6 +139,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T01:49:40.505506+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "ae4f45e4c06169ac8062ba546969e25a0e2e25569b56143c4811d70c95867032" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_007__head_medicare_eligible": { @@ -219,6 +233,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:49:30.750595+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "dbeadb80ba65622d9bb1ed2ff69529705926124f35e893d4223b9b35ecf2c72f" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_020__federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { @@ -286,6 +308,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T01:49:44.868932+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "5094b4eda857c36ce42cf847b76eee7ea7f082c61eb623fabbd7c2e324b28fce" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_023__snap": { @@ -381,6 +411,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:49:30.939882+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "5c1dbb482df86fbc3ae59ee58962e84a115a0640ddae8cd622fd4f0ccfb066a8" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_039__federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { @@ -1046,6 +1084,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:49:31.081978+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "6610e1906bd9548d193559ab8b4db2b9331ce40955cbc21be8e9c97a96dd121d" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_079__head_medicare_eligible": { @@ -1562,6 +1608,14 @@ "reference_suspect": false, "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:49:31.383752+00:00", "verdict_sha256": "6fe8a0fcffaba12526ecae2c0f791fac636675aa1e1ff426f5864aab90797642" + }, + "published": { + "release": "dashboard-data-20260929", + "commit": "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "judged_on_utc": "2026-09-29" } }, "us__scenario_118__snap": { @@ -1769,6 +1823,94 @@ "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", "judged_on_utc": null } + }, + "us__scenario_022__federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "household_unit_or_filing_status", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-30T17:25:44.597220+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "60720f64eb01fba3f686a353daa954df2f1495bd1e57364ca04288941d8613f6" + } + }, + "us__scenario_032__payroll_tax": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T01:49:48.761387+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "354482e612feabf4d21b5c8d14b96f6d0d4fb34895d8cd83f183e8caaa20a862" + } + }, + "us__scenario_043__payroll_tax": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-22T18:14:01.503603+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "3baf4b01b10a2d8e12915859767e1f9e366c0f1d59fe6cc7071ce3952431794e" + } + }, + "us__scenario_081__federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-30T04:09:19.928030+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "6b046acbaf2b36276da1ea1f7fdb5b3cabe075ae69e156df9594f7c63f44cdb7" + } + }, + "us__scenario_081__payroll_tax": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T01:49:58.450053+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "b29fd367d87b47db08504f5116ad0dfa315fb8b570074126b2689b4bef9fc54b" + } + }, + "us__scenario_082__payroll_tax": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "state_local_rule", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-29T11:53:15.472783+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "b7a8964530c183bb40079292b65272d9387a758efdd583b53e239096e06858fb" + } + }, + "us__scenario_114__federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-30T04:34:26.960453+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "ba069da56eb141ae8fa08c0acd7b72db4018c9d59f2dc525fe3e2eae87e2f6b6" + } + }, + "us__scenario_114__state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { + "current": { + "tree": "stage", + "judge_model": "claude-opus-5-5", + "case_failure_source": "llm_error", + "case_failure_subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "reference_suspect": false, + "judged_at_utc": "2026-09-30T04:35:28.792780+00:00", + "verdict_sha256": "4f07d313983947636f0243f0d1c4dee09517e8f783112c64b898557ff55ecec4" + } } } } diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..53d8462e --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +# Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction, October 5, 2026 + +This directory audits the 2026 Louisiana standard deduction behind two scored references in release `dashboard-data-20260930`. It changes no reference. Max ruled to keep both at the $12,835 deduction. Release `dashboard-data-20261006` ships the wording-only case-note rewrites below. The proposed benchmark-card and paper convention sentence remains held under d994. + +**Update, d994 (ruled 2026-10-06, after this release was built).** Max kept the published-amounts convention as written, so the held sentence is not adopted and Idaho's scenario_076, SNAP's scenario_008, scenario_038 and scenario_109, and Maryland's scenario_068 keep their references. He also ruled to exclude both Louisiana references from scoring, because no Louisiana publication stated the $12,835 deduction before the freeze. Release `dashboard-data-20261006` still scores both at $12,835; the exclusions ship in the release after it. Version 2's prompt states indexed amounts. + +| Output | Reference | Models exact | +|---|---:|---:| +| scenario_051 state income tax before refundable credits (single, Louisiana AGI $40,180) | $820.35 | 0 of 46 | +| scenario_077 state income tax before refundable credits (single, Louisiana AGI $23,006.18) | $305.14 | 0 of 46 | + +Both references are 3% of Louisiana AGI less a $12,835 standard deduction. The five models with the highest exact-match rates answer $830.40 and $315.18, which use 2025's $12,500. + +## What the law and Louisiana published + +- **Statute.** La. R.S. 47:294(A) sets $12,500 for single and separate filers for 2025, and 200% of that for the other statuses. 294(B): from January 1, 2026, the prior year's amount is multiplied by "the percentage increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year". It sets no rounding rule and gives the Department of Revenue no duty to publish the amount. Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session enacted it; no later act amended it. The Constitution (Art. III, §2(A)(3)(b)) barred deduction bills in the 2026 regular session. +- **CPI-U** (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054: +2.677%, released 2026-01-13. The 2025 annual average over 2024's is +2.631%. September 2024 to September 2025 is +3.013%. +- **Withholding (before the freeze).** The Department of Revenue published $12,875 single and separate, $25,750 for the other statuses, as the amounts it used in its 2026 withholding tables. That is $12,500 × 1.03, from the CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. It appears in: + - the R-1306 and R-1210 employer formulas (effective January 2026); + - LAC 61:I.1501's Emergency Rule (signed and posted 2025-12-23, effective 2026-01-01; Louisiana Register 2026-01-20, p. 13, 2601#014); + - Revenue Information Bulletin 26-005 (2026-01-12); + - the Notice of Intent (2026-02-20, pp. 308-317, 2602#031; repromulgated 2026-03-20, p. 422); + - the Rule (2026-05-20, LR 52:749, 2605#012). + + The rule documents and RIB 26-005 each say the amounts allowed on 2026 returns may differ once calendar-2025 CPI-U is released in January 2026. The R-1306 and R-1210 formulas carry the figure without that caveat. +- **Estimated tax (before the freeze).** The worksheet in the 2026 Form IT-540ESi instructions (created 2025-12-03; a Wayback capture of 2026-04-12 is byte-identical) gives the same $12,875 as the "Louisiana estimated standard deduction". Maryland's 2026 estimated-tax worksheet, by contrast, carried its 2025 amount. +- **Legislative Fiscal Office (before the freeze).** In the Notice of Intent's fiscal statement (Louisiana Register, 2026-02-20, p. 317), the LFO reads the statute as December to December, about 2.68%. It says the withholding deduction exceeds the deduction taxpayers will receive on 2026 returns. $12,500 × 1.0268 = $12,835.00. +- **The Department's indexing method (before the freeze).** In the Louisiana Register of 2026-06-20 (p. 1050, 2606#052; Wayback capture 2026-06-23, byte-identical), the Department's Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 puts the 2026 retirement income exemption at $12,324: $12,000 × 1.027. R.S. 47:44.1 indexes that exemption in the same words as 294(B). The same 2.7% on $12,500 gives $12,837.50. +- **The 2026 return amount (after the freeze).** Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019, dated 2026-09-28 (served Last-Modified 2026-09-29), sets $12,838 single and separate and $25,676 for the other statuses: $12,500 × the 2.7% CPI-U multiplier, with the joint amount twice the rounded single one. BLS's January 13 release gives the December-to-December change as 2.7%. The bulletin names no comparison months, and a RIB is not binding. The 2026 IT-540 instructions are not yet posted. https://dam.ldr.la.gov/lawspolicies/RIB%2026-019.pdf + +policyengine-us carries $12,835 and $25,670 as explicit 2026 entries in every version from the one that built the frozen references (1.755.4) through the reference engine (2.15.17). PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411 added them on 2026-05-24: $12,500 × 324.054 / 315.605, rounded to the dollar. No Louisiana publication states $12,835. + +## Does the convention cover $12,835? + +The benchmark card's convention reads: "Where policyengine-us projects a 2026 amount with a price index, or carries one published after the freeze, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published." + +$12,835 is neither. It was computed from CPI-U values BLS had published, under the statute's formula, and entered as an explicit 2026 value; nothing forecast it. The September 22 projection screen (`../2026-09-22/fixes/r18_hold_all_projections.py`) finds projected values by diffing the uprated parameter tree against the tree with uprating disabled. An explicit entry is in both trees, so the screen could not flag it, and no convention module touches Louisiana. + +So the governing rule is the card's first sentence: "A scored reference follows from the stated facts and from law published before PolicyBench froze the references on 2026-07-03." $12,835 follows from R.S. 47:294(B) and the January 13 CPI release. The LFO's published 2.68% gives it exactly. The Department of Revenue's own amount, $12,838, published after the freeze by the same method, moves each output by $0.09. + +The record's precedents on withholding publications run both ways: + +- Michigan's 2026 personal exemption came from Treasury's Form 446 withholding guide, and Missouri's 2026 brackets from its withholding formula. Wisconsin's amounts came from its 1-ES estimated-tax instructions. +- Maryland's withholding guide limited its $3,400 to the percentage withholding method. That amount fed only the engine's withholding estimate, and the return deduction was held at 2025's $3,350. + +Louisiana's withholding and estimated-tax amount sits with Maryland's: every notice that states it says the return amount will differ, and RIB 26-019 shows it does. Apart from SNAP's FY2027 figures, which USDA published after the freeze, every 2026 value the nine convention modules change on 2.15.17 replaces an uprated projection. No convention overrides an explicit engine entry that encodes a computation from pre-freeze data. + +One gap remains. Once policyengine-us encodes RIB 26-019's $12,838, the engine "carries one published after the freeze". The convention's letter would then send the reference to the amount published before the freeze, $12,875, or the last one published, $12,500. Both are further from Louisiana's 2026 law than either $12,835 or $12,838. The wording below closes that gap. + +## Options + +Values are policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final` (the system that built the references) and the Louisiana amounts replaced (`verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log`). Under every candidate, the sweep moves these two outputs and no other of the 1,984. Exact-match counts use the $1 tolerance on the release's 46 models (`verification/leaderboard_impact.json`). + +| Option | Deduction (single) | scenario_051 | scenario_077 | Models exact (051 / 077) | Headline effect | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| **Keep (recommended)** | $12,835 | $820.35 | $305.14 | 0 / 0 | none | +| Louisiana's 2026 return amount (RIB 26-019, after the freeze), for comparison | $12,838 | $820.26 | $305.05 | 0 / 0 | exact match unchanged; bounded scores move by under 0.0001 points | +| Regenerate with the amount published before the freeze | $12,875 | $819.15 | $303.94 | 0 / 1 (GPT-6 Astra) | GPT-6 Astra +0.06 points; no rank changes | +| Regenerate with the last return amount published (2025) | $12,500 | $830.40 | $315.19 | 21 / 19 | up to +0.13 points; Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash swap exact ranks 24 and 25 | +| Exclude both outputs | n/a | not scored | not scored | n/a | 1,926 scored outputs; the same exact-rank swap, two bounded-score swaps (ranks 16/17 and 35/36) | + +Every calendar-year reading of 294(B) lands within the $1 tolerance of both references at any rounding up to $50: December to December, the annual-average change, and the 2.7% LDR applied. The two lines in the table below the recommendation: + +- **$12,875** was a withholding and estimated-tax amount. The Department said its return amount would differ, and RIB 26-019 shows it does. Regenerating with it would score models against a figure Louisiana never adopted for 2026 returns. +- **$12,500** is the 2025 amount. Every 2026 source supersedes it: the statute, every 2026 publication by the Department, and the LFO. + +Neither exclusion basis applies. The reference turns on no input the prompt omits, and the engine applies the law correctly on the stated facts. The readings the law allows agree within tolerance. + +## Recommendation + +Keep both references. The original proposal below separated two documentation changes. Release `dashboard-data-20261006` ships only the case-note rewrites in item 2; item 1 remains held under d994. + +1. **Benchmark card and paper — HELD (d994).** The proposed replacement for the convention's second sentence was: + + > Where a 2026 amount rests on a price-index projection, or on an index value or announcement published after the freeze, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published. Where a statute fixes a 2026 amount from index values published before the freeze, the reference applies the statute, whenever the government announces the result. Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction is $12,500 increased by the calendar-2025 CPI-U change (R.S. 47:294(B)); the December 2025 index, released 2026-01-13, gives $12,835, and the $12,838 the Department of Revenue announced on 2026-09-28 moves neither reference by more than $0.09. A withholding or estimated-tax amount the government labels provisional sets no return amount. + + Without the second sentence, the convention's letter misfires once policyengine-us encodes RIB 26-019: the engine would then carry an amount published after the freeze, and the reference would fall back to $12,875 or $12,500. + + The same sentence bears on the record's other holds. Maryland's 2026 return deduction is indexed under Tax-General §10-217(c) through IRC §1(f)(3), whose index month for 2026 is August 2025 (BLS release 2025-09-11; `../2026-09-22/verification/v5b_projection_mn_md_mi_mo_il.md`). It was held at 2025's $3,350 because no 2026 return amount was published before the freeze; that hold moves scenario_068's state income tax by $2.375. Under the sentence above, Maryland's amount would come from its statute too. Whether any Idaho or Michigan hold is in the same position is unchecked. Adopting the sentence therefore means re-examining those holds in the release that carries it. Keeping the convention's current letter instead leaves Louisiana unchanged today (its $12,835 is no projection) and defers the question until policyengine-us encodes $12,838. + + The subsequent re-examination found that adopting this wording would change five scored references: scenario_076's Idaho income tax, SNAP for scenario_008, scenario_038 and scenario_109, and scenario_068's Maryland income tax under the IRS reading. Those changes are held under d994. The existing benchmark-card and paper convention remains in force for this release. +2. **Case notes for the two outputs.** Replace "inflation-indexed ... $12,835" with the sourced chain: + + > R.S. 47:294(B) multiplies 2025's $12,500 by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. Before the freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement exemption, which the same words index (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $820.26 (scenario_051) and $305.05 (scenario_077), within the tolerance. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. + + For scenario_077, record that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that withholding amount. + +If Max rules instead that the convention takes the amount published before the freeze, `fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py` applies it. `fixes/latest_final_la.py` composes it with `latest_final`, and `verification/verify_convention_module.json` shows the composition reproduces the sweep's `ldr_published` column on all 1,984 outputs. + +## Method + +1. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py` rebuilds every household with `Scenario.to_pe_household` and computes every output on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final`. Its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references. It then reruns every household with the Louisiana 2026 amounts set to each candidate, joint at 200%. Outputs: `verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv`, `verification/sweep_la_households.json` (each Louisiana household's AGI, deduction, taxable income and tax under each candidate) and the log. +2. **Score.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` copies the frozen run to scratch directories and never writes the snapshot. For each option it rewrites the two reference values (and the copy's reference digest) or appends the two outputs to the exclusion record. It scores each copy with `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs. The unchanged copy reproduces the published payload's scoring field for field. Outputs: `verification/leaderboard_impact.json`, `leaderboard_impact_models.csv` and the log. +3. **Module check.** `scripts/verify_convention_module.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs with `fixes/latest_final_la.py` and compares each with the sweep's `ldr_published` column; they agree on every output. policyengine-us applies a reform set twice (before uprating and again with its structural reforms), so the module's guard accepts the engine's value or its own. +4. **Tests.** `tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py` checks these records without loading the engine: + - the baseline matches every scored reference, and the candidates move only the two outputs; + - every Louisiana household's engine tax equals 3% of Louisiana AGI less the candidate deduction; + - between any two candidates, each output moves by exactly 3% of the deduction change; + - the analyze CLI moves exact match for exactly the models a $1-tolerance count says it should. + +5. **Retirement exemption.** policyengine-us 2.15.17 holds the R.S. 47:44.1 exemption for filers 65 and older at $12,000 for 2026. The Department published $12,324 before the freeze (Louisiana Register, 2026-06-20). `scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs with `latest_final` and the 2026 cap at $12,324: no output changes (`verification/check_retirement_exemption.json`). + +Louisiana's withholding proxy (`la_withheld_income_tax`) subtracts the federal standard deduction, so the Louisiana amount does not reach the federal SALT deduction. The three other Louisiana households (038, 057, 074) have Louisiana AGI below the deduction under every candidate. + +Engine: `results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517` (policyengine-us 2.15.17). diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..808cd0a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py @@ -0,0 +1,88 @@ +"""c_la_published_2026 on policyengine-us 2.15.17: Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction as the Department of Revenue published it. + +DRAFT, not applied to any published reference: adopting it changes two scored references +and waits for Max's ruling (see ../README.md). + +Rule (benchmark card): a scored reference follows from law published before the +2026-07-03 reference freeze; where policyengine-us carries a 2026 amount it computed from +a price index rather than one a government published, the reference takes the amount +published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published. + +La. R.S. 47:294(B) adjusts the standard deduction from January 1, 2026 by the percentage +increase in CPI-U "for the previous calendar year". policyengine-us 2.15.17 carries an +explicit 2026 entry of $12,835 single and separate and $25,670 for the other statuses +(PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411, merged 2026-05-24): PolicyEngine's own computation, +$12,500 x 324.054 / 315.605 rounded to the dollar, which no Louisiana publication states. + +Before the freeze the Department of Revenue published one 2026 amount, $12,875 single and +separate and $25,750 for the other statuses ($12,500 x 1.03, from the CPI-U data available +on December 1, 2025): + - the "Louisiana estimated standard deduction" on line 3 of the worksheet in the 2026 + Form IT-540ESi instructions (created 2025-12-03); + - the 2026 income tax withholding tables, LAC 61:I.1501: Emergency Rule signed + 2025-12-23, effective 2026-01-01 (Louisiana Register, January 20, 2026), Notice of + Intent (February 20, 2026, pp. 308-317, repromulgated March 20, 2026), Rule (May 20, + 2026, LR 52:749); RIB 26-005; the R-1306 and R-1210 employer formulas. +The rule documents and RIB 26-005 say the amounts allowed on 2026 returns may differ +slightly once calendar-year 2025 CPI-U is released, and the Legislative Fiscal Office's +remark in the Notice of Intent reads the statute as December to December (about 2.68%). +After the freeze, RIB 26-019 (2026-09-28) set the 2026 return amount at $12,838 and +$25,676 ($12,500 x 1.027); under it the two references are $820.26 and $305.05. + +This module is the alternative the audit does not recommend: it applies the convention to +policyengine-us's explicit entry and reads the provisional $12,875 as "the amount published +before the freeze". +https://www.doa.la.gov/media/hffhilyf/2605.docx +https://www.doa.la.gov/media/5tqefehu/2602.docx + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 reads the amount only in la_standard_deduction, and through it +la_taxable_income; la_withheld_income_tax uses the federal standard deduction, so the +change does not reach the federal SALT deduction. Recomputing all 1,984 outputs moves +exactly two, both scored: scenario_051 and scenario_077 state income tax before +refundable credits, each by -$1.20 (verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log). + +The 2.15.17 entry is explicit, not uprated, so the September 22 projection screen +(r18_hold_all_projections.py, which diffs the uprated tree against the tree with uprating +disabled) could not see it. +""" + +from policyengine_core.parameters import Parameter +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + +FIX_ID = "latest_c_la_published_2026" +DESCRIPTION = "Louisiana 2026 standard deduction as LDR published it before the freeze (2.15.17)" +ROOT = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount." +SINGLE_STATUSES = ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE") +DOUBLE_STATUSES = ("JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") +PUBLISHED_2026 = {ROOT + s: 12_875 for s in SINGLE_STATUSES} +PUBLISHED_2026.update({ROOT + s: 25_750 for s in DOUBLE_STATUSES}) +# What 2.15.17 carries. policyengine-us applies a reform set twice (before uprating and +# again with its structural reforms), so a second pass finds the published amount. +ENGINE_2026 = {ROOT + s: 12_835 for s in SINGLE_STATUSES} +ENGINE_2026.update({ROOT + s: 25_670 for s in DOUBLE_STATUSES}) +PUBLISHED_2025 = {name: (12_500 if value == 12_875 else 25_000) for name, value in PUBLISHED_2026.items()} + + +def _convention(parameters): + seen = set() + for parameter in parameters.get_descendants(): + if not isinstance(parameter, Parameter) or parameter.name not in PUBLISHED_2026: + continue + assert float(parameter("2025-01-01")) == PUBLISHED_2025[parameter.name], ( + parameter.name, + parameter("2025-01-01"), + ) + assert float(parameter("2026-01-01")) in ( + ENGINE_2026[parameter.name], + PUBLISHED_2026[parameter.name], + ), (parameter.name, parameter("2026-01-01")) + parameter.update(period="2026", value=PUBLISHED_2026[parameter.name]) + seen.add(parameter.name) + missing = set(PUBLISHED_2026) - seen + assert not missing, sorted(missing) + return parameters + + +class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(_convention) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..72cf5275 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +"""latest_final plus the Louisiana standard deduction convention (DRAFT). + +The system a release would build the references with if Max adopts c_la_published_2026: +``reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions +and the Maryland output-scope adapter), then ``latest_c_la_published_2026``. The Louisiana +module touches only gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount, which no +latest_final part touches, so order does not matter. + +latest_final is loaded from the 2026-09-28 directory, together with the IRS sales tax +table its IRS module reads, so the committed modules there stay byte-identical. +""" + +import importlib.util +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from pathlib import Path + +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + +FIX_ID = "latest_final_la" +DESCRIPTION = "latest_final plus the Louisiana 2026 published standard deduction (draft)" +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +AUDIT = HERE.parents[1] + + +def _load(name, path): + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules[name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def _latest_final(): + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="latest_final_la_")) + for path in (AUDIT / "2026-09-28/fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT / "2026-09-22/fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return _load("latest_final", target / "latest_final.py").reform + + +LATEST_FINAL = _latest_final() +LOUISIANA = _load("latest_c_la_published_2026", HERE / "latest_c_la_published_2026.py").reform + + +class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + LATEST_FINAL.apply(self) + LOUISIANA.apply(self) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a0ea47b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py @@ -0,0 +1,130 @@ +"""Check whether Louisiana's published 2026 retirement income exemption moves any output. + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 carries the R.S. 47:44.1 exemption for filers 65 and older at +$12,000 for 2026 (parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exempt_income/retirement/cap.yaml: +2025-01-01 only, no uprating). The Department of Revenue published $12,324 for tax year +2026 before the freeze, in its Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 (Louisiana Register, +June 20, 2026, p. 1050, doc 2606#052). That is $12,000 x 1.027, the same 2.7% it later +applied to the standard deduction in RIB 26-019. + +Recomputes every output with ``latest_final`` and the 2026 cap at $12,324 and lists every +output that changes against ``latest_final`` alone. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.util +import json +import sys +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location( + "sweep_la_standard_deduction", HERE / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.py" +) +sweep = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) +sys.modules["sweep_la_standard_deduction"] = sweep +spec.loader.exec_module(sweep) + +OUT = HERE.parent / "verification/check_retirement_exemption.json" +CAP = "gov.states.la.tax.income.exempt_income.retirement.cap" +PUBLISHED_2026 = 12_324 +_SYSTEMS: dict[str, object] = {} + + +def _cap_reform(): + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + + def modify(parameters): + bracket = parameters.get_child(CAP).brackets[1] + assert float(bracket.amount("2026-01-01")) in (12_000, PUBLISHED_2026) + bracket.amount.update(period="2026", value=PUBLISHED_2026) + return parameters + + class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(modify) + + return reform + + +def _system(published: bool): + key = "published" if published else "baseline" + if key not in _SYSTEMS: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + if sweep._FIX_DIR is None: + sweep._FIX_DIR = sweep._assemble_fixes() + reforms = (sweep._load_latest_final(sweep._FIX_DIR),) + if published: + reforms += (_cap_reform(),) + _SYSTEMS[key] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=reforms) + return _SYSTEMS[key] + + +def run(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = sweep.build_situation(scenario) + values = {} + for published in (False, True): + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(published), situation=situation) + values[published] = sweep._outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + cap = float(_system(True).parameters.get_child(CAP).brackets[1].amount("2026-01-01")) + return { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "cap": cap, + "changes": { + v: [values[False][v], values[True][v]] + for v in variables + if abs(values[True][v] - values[False][v]) > 1e-6 + }, + } + + +def main() -> None: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + meta = json.loads((sweep.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(sweep.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + jobs = [] + for _, row in pd.read_csv(sweep.RUN / "scenarios.csv").iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=6) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(run, jobs)) + summary = { + "policyengine_us": version("policyengine-us"), + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": sorted({r["cap"] for r in results}), + "outputs_compared": sum(len(j[1]) for j in jobs), + "changed_outputs": { + f"{r['scenario_id']}/{v}": pair + for r in results + for v, pair in r["changes"].items() + }, + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8030792f --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,306 @@ +"""Score the frozen run under each option for the two Louisiana state income tax outputs. + +Copies the frozen run (predictions, references, scenarios, exclusions) to scratch +directories and never writes the snapshot. Each option is one copy: + +``keep`` + Unchanged. It must reproduce the published payload's scoring: every modelStats field + except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, and programStats, heatmap, + globalWeights and failureModes exactly. The script stops if it does not. +``ldr_published``, ``ldr_official`` and ``hold_2025`` + The two references replaced by their values under that candidate deduction, read from + ``verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv`` (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with + ``latest_final`` and the candidate). +``exclude`` + The two outputs appended to the exclusion record, so no model is scored on them. + +Each copy is scored with ``python -m policybench.cli analyze``, the command the freeze +runs, and every option is compared with ``keep``. + + PYTHONPATH= /bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv" +OUT_DIR = HERE / "verification" +OUTPUTS = ( + ("scenario_051", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_077", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), +) +REGENERATE = ("ldr_published", "ldr_official", "hold_2025") +OPTIONS = ("keep",) + REGENERATE + ("exclude",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +RUN_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +METRICS = ( + "exact", + "within1pct", + "within5pct", + "within10pct", + "score", + "outputGroupScore", +) +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def candidate_values() -> dict[str, dict[tuple[str, str], float]]: + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP).set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + values = {} + for candidate in ("engine",) + REGENERATE: + values[candidate] = {key: float(sweep.loc[key, candidate]) for key in OUTPUTS} + return values + + +def exclusion_entries(values: dict) -> list[dict]: + """Draft records, only to score the exclude option; the reason code is a stand-in.""" + entries = [] + for key in OUTPUTS: + entries.append( + { + "scenario_id": key[0], + "variable": key[1], + "reason_code": "reference_law_published_after_freeze", + "root_cause": "c_la_standard_deduction_2026", + "published": "draft: scoring stand-in, not a record", + "law": "La. R.S. 47:294(B)", + "alternative_reading": "draft: scoring stand-in, not a record", + "frozen_value": values["engine"][key], + "alternative_value": values["hold_2025"][key], + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "draft", + "decided_by": "draft", + } + ) + return entries + + +def stage(target: Path, option: str, values: dict) -> Path: + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, target / name) + if option in REGENERATE: + # Rewrite only the two rows' value field, so every other byte stays as frozen, + # and record the new digest in the copy's sidecar, as a regeneration would. + path = target / "reference_outputs.csv" + lines = path.read_text().splitlines(keepends=True) + for (sid, variable), value in values[option].items(): + prefix = f"{sid},{variable}," + hits = [i for i, line in enumerate(lines) if line.startswith(prefix)] + if len(hits) != 1: + raise SystemExit(f"{sid}/{variable}: {len(hits)} reference rows") + _, _, _, weight = lines[hits[0]].rstrip("\n").split(",") + lines[hits[0]] = f"{prefix}{value!r},{weight}\n" + path.write_text("".join(lines)) + sidecar = target / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + meta = json.loads(sidecar.read_text()) + meta["reference_csv_sha256"] = sha256(path) + sidecar.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2) + "\n") + if option == "exclude": + path = target / "reference_exclusions.json" + record = json.loads(path.read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend(exclusion_entries(values)) + path.write_text(json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n") + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + out = run_dir / "analysis" + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(out), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + payload = json.loads(dashboard.read_text()) + return payload["countries"]["us"] + + +def check_reproduces_published(base: dict) -> None: + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS: + if published[key] != base[key]: + raise SystemExit(f"unchanged copy does not reproduce published {key}") + a = {m["model"]: m for m in published["modelStats"]} + b = {m["model"]: m for m in base["modelStats"]} + if set(a) != set(b): + raise SystemExit("model sets differ") + for model, row in a.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != b[model].get(field): + raise SystemExit(f"{model}.{field}: {value} != {b[model].get(field)}") + + +def ranks(frame: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> pd.Series: + return frame[metric].rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +def compare(base: dict, option: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + b = pd.DataFrame(option["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in METRICS: + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_option"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + for metric in ("exact", "score"): + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] = ranks(a, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_option"] = ranks(b, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_change"] = ( + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] - rows[f"{metric}_rank_option"] + ) + rows["n_published"] = a["n"] + rows["n_option"] = b["n"] + return rows.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + + +def exact_models(values: dict, option: str) -> dict[str, list[str]]: + """Models within the $1 tolerance of each output's reference under an option.""" + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + predictions = published["scenarioPredictions"] + result = {} + for sid, variable in OUTPUTS: + if option == "exclude": + result[f"{sid}/{variable}"] = [] + continue + reference = values["engine" if option == "keep" else option][(sid, variable)] + rows = predictions[sid][variable] + result[f"{sid}/{variable}"] = sorted( + model + for model, row in rows.items() + if row.get("prediction") is not None + and abs(float(row["prediction"]) - reference) <= TOLERANCE + ) + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + values = candidate_values() + + payloads = {} + for option in OPTIONS: + payloads[option] = analyze(stage(scratch / option, option, values)) + if option == "keep": + check_reproduces_published(payloads["keep"]) + + OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + summary = { + "outputs": [f"{sid}/{variable}" for sid, variable in OUTPUTS], + "reference_values": { + option: ( + None + if option == "exclude" + else { + f"{sid}/{variable}": values["engine" if option == "keep" else option][ + (sid, variable) + ] + for sid, variable in OUTPUTS + } + ) + for option in OPTIONS + }, + "published_reproduced": True, + "options": {}, + } + frames = [] + for option in OPTIONS: + models = compare(payloads["keep"], payloads[option]) + frame = models.copy() + frame.insert(0, "option", option) + frames.append(frame.reset_index()) + summary["options"][option] = { + "scored_outputs": int(payloads[option]["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + "exact_models": exact_models(values, option), + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["exact_delta"].max()), + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": float(models["score_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["score_delta"].max()), + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row["exact_rank_published"]), + "option": int(row["exact_rank_option"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row["exact_rank_change"] != 0 + }, + "score_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row["score_rank_published"]), + "option": int(row["score_rank_option"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row["score_rank_change"] != 0 + }, + "top5_exact": models.sort_values("exact_rank_option").head(5).index.tolist(), + "top5_score": models.sort_values("score_rank_option").head(5).index.tolist(), + } + pd.concat(frames).to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv", index=False) + (OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text( + json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cf485a97 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py @@ -0,0 +1,363 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference under each candidate 2026 Louisiana standard deduction. + +La. R.S. 47:294(B) adjusts the standard deduction from January 1, 2026 by "the percentage +increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year". policyengine-us 2.15.17, the +version that built the published references, carries an explicit 2026 entry of $12,835 +single and separate and $25,670 for the other statuses (PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411): +$12,500 times December 2025 CPI-U over December 2024 CPI-U, rounded to the dollar. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions and the Maryland +output-scope adapter), on households built by ``Scenario.to_pe_household``. The script +first recomputes every output under it and checks the result against the published +reference CSV. It then reruns every household with the Louisiana 2026 amounts replaced by +each candidate below. Each candidate sets the single and separate amount; the joint, head +of household and surviving spouse amounts are 200% of it (R.S. 47:294(A)(2)). + +``engine`` + $12,835, the amount the references use (December to December, rounded). +``dec_dec_unrounded`` + $12,500 x 324.054 / 315.605: December to December, no rounding (the statute names none). +``annual_average`` + $12,500 x 321.943 / 313.689: 2025 annual average over 2024 annual average. +``ldr_published`` + $12,875: the only 2026 amount the Department of Revenue published before the freeze: + its 2026 withholding tables (LAC 61:I.1501, Louisiana Register, January to May 2026), + based on CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025 ($12,500 x 1.03), and the + "estimated standard deduction" of its 2026 Form IT-540ESi worksheet. +``ldr_official`` + $12,838: the 2026 amount the Department of Revenue published on 2026-09-28, after the + freeze, in Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019: $12,500 x 1.027, the 2.7% CPI-U + multiplier, rounded to the dollar ($25,676 for the other statuses). +``hold_2025`` + $12,500: the 2025 amount, the last return amount Louisiana published before the freeze. + +CPI-U values: BLS series CUUR0000SA0 (not seasonally adjusted, 1982-84=100), read from the +BLS public API on 2026-10-05: December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054, 2024 annual +average 313.689, 2025 annual average 321.943 (October 2025 not collected), September 2024 +315.301, September 2025 324.800. + +Run from a policybench checkout with the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv: + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +YEAR = 2026 +BINARY_SUFFIXES = ("_eligible",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} + +CPI_U = { + "2024-09": 315.301, + "2024-12": 315.605, + "2024-annual": 313.689, + "2025-09": 324.800, + "2025-12": 324.054, + "2025-annual": 321.943, +} +BASE_2025 = 12_500 +CANDIDATES = { + "engine": 12_835, + "dec_dec_unrounded": BASE_2025 * CPI_U["2025-12"] / CPI_U["2024-12"], + "annual_average": BASE_2025 * CPI_U["2025-annual"] / CPI_U["2024-annual"], + "ldr_published": 12_875, + "ldr_official": 12_838, + "hold_2025": BASE_2025, +} +SINGLE_STATUSES = ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE") +DOUBLE_STATUSES = ("JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") +PARAMETER = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount" +DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "adjusted_gross_income", + "la_agi", + "la_standard_deduction", + "la_itemized_deductions", + "la_taxable_income", + "la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits", + "la_non_refundable_credits", + "la_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "la_refundable_credits", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", +) + +_SYSTEMS: dict[str, object] = {} +_FIX_DIR = None + + +def _assemble_fixes() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="la_standard_deduction_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _load_latest_final(fix_dir: Path): + path = fix_dir / "latest_final.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module.reform + + +def _la_reform(single: float): + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + + def modify(parameters): + node = parameters.get_child(PARAMETER) + for status in SINGLE_STATUSES: + node.get_child(status).update(period=str(YEAR), value=single) + for status in DOUBLE_STATUSES: + node.get_child(status).update(period=str(YEAR), value=2 * single) + return parameters + + class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(modify) + + return reform + + +def _system(candidate: str | None): + """latest_final, then (for a candidate) the Louisiana 2026 amounts.""" + global _FIX_DIR + key = candidate or "baseline" + if key not in _SYSTEMS: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + if _FIX_DIR is None: + _FIX_DIR = _assemble_fixes() + reforms = (_load_latest_final(_FIX_DIR),) + if candidate is not None: + reforms += (_la_reform(CANDIDATES[candidate]),) + _SYSTEMS[key] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=reforms) + return _SYSTEMS[key] + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) -> dict[str, float]: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + + values = {} + for variable in variables: + pe_variable = _pe_variable_for_output(variable, "us") + values[variable] = float( + _extract_person_value(sim.calculate(pe_variable, YEAR), scenario, variable) + ) + return values + + +def _diagnostics(sim) -> dict[str, float]: + values = {} + for name in DIAGNOSTICS: + try: + values[name] = float(sim.calculate(name, YEAR).sum()) + except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 - diagnostics only; a missing variable is NaN + values[name] = float("nan") + return values + + +def _simulate(situation: dict, candidate: str | None): + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + return Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(candidate), situation=situation) + + +def sweep_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + """Baseline and every candidate for one household.""" + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = build_situation(scenario) + base = _simulate(situation, None) + result = { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "baseline": _outputs(base, scenario, variables), + "baseline_diagnostics": _diagnostics(base), + "candidates": {}, + } + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + sim = _simulate(situation, candidate) + result["candidates"][candidate] = { + "outputs": _outputs(sim, scenario, variables), + "diagnostics": _diagnostics(sim), + } + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--scenarios", nargs="*") + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + programs = meta["programs"] + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in exclusions} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + if args.scenarios: + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(args.scenarios)] + + jobs = [] + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(programs, scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(jobs)} households", flush=True) + print( + "candidates (single; joint is 200%): " + + ", ".join(f"{k}={v:.4f}" for k, v in CANDIDATES.items()), + flush=True, + ) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(sweep_scenario, jobs)) + results.sort(key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for result in results: + sid = result["scenario_id"] + for variable, base in result["baseline"].items(): + key = (sid, variable) + ref = float(indexed[key]) + entry = excluded.get(key) + binary = variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + row = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": result["state"], + "variable": variable, + "reference": ref, + "baseline": base, + "baseline_matches_reference": ( + round(base) == round(ref) if binary else abs(base - ref) <= 1e-3 + ), + "excluded": entry is not None, + "excluded_reason": entry["reason_code"] if entry else "", + } + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + value = result["candidates"][candidate]["outputs"][variable] + delta = value - base + row[candidate] = value + row[f"{candidate}_delta"] = delta + row[f"{candidate}_moved"] = ( + round(value) != round(base) if binary else abs(delta) > TOLERANCE + ) + row[f"{candidate}_changed"] = ( + round(value) != round(base) if binary else abs(delta) > 1e-6 + ) + rows.append(row) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv", index=False) + + households = [ + { + "scenario_id": r["scenario_id"], + "state": r["state"], + "baseline": r["baseline_diagnostics"], + **{c: r["candidates"][c]["diagnostics"] for c in CANDIDATES}, + } + for r in results + if r["state"] == "LA" + ] + (out_dir / "sweep_la_households.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "policyengine_us": engine, + "candidates_single": CANDIDATES, + "cpi_u": CPI_U, + "households": households, + }, + indent=1, + sort_keys=True, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + scored = table[~table["excluded"]] + mismatched = table[~table["baseline_matches_reference"] & ~table["excluded"]] + print( + f"baseline: {len(table)} outputs, {len(scored)} scored, " + f"{len(mismatched)} scored outputs differ from the published reference" + ) + if not mismatched.empty: + print(mismatched[["scenario_id", "variable", "reference", "baseline"]]) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 220, "display.max_rows", 500): + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + changed = table[table[f"{candidate}_changed"]] + moved = table[table[f"{candidate}_moved"]] + print( + f"\n{candidate} ({CANDIDATES[candidate]:.4f}): {len(changed)} outputs change, " + f"{len(moved)} by more than ${TOLERANCE:g} " + f"({int((~moved['excluded']).sum())} scored)" + ) + if not changed.empty: + print( + changed[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "state", + "variable", + "baseline", + candidate, + f"{candidate}_delta", + "excluded", + ] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5f0578be --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py @@ -0,0 +1,154 @@ +"""Check the draft convention module against the sweep, output by output. + +Recomputes all 1,984 outputs with ``fixes/latest_final_la.py`` (latest_final plus +``latest_c_la_published_2026``) and compares each with the ``ldr_published`` column of +``verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv``, which the sweep computed with an inline +reform. The two are separate implementations of the same parameter change, so they must +agree on every output to the cent. Also checks the module's parameter values on the +engine: 2026 single and separate $12,875, the other statuses $25,750; 2025 unchanged at +$12,500 and $25,000. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.util +import json +import sys +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv" +OUT = HERE / "verification/verify_convention_module.json" +YEAR = 2026 +AGREE = 0.005 +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} +PARAMETER = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount" + +_SYSTEM = None + + +def _system(): + global _SYSTEM + if _SYSTEM is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + path = HERE / "fixes/latest_final_la.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final_la", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final_la"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + _SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + return _SYSTEM + + +def run_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(), situation=situation) + return { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "values": { + v: float( + _extract_person_value( + sim.calculate(_pe_variable_for_output(v, "us"), YEAR), scenario, v + ) + ) + for v in variables + }, + } + + +def parameter_values() -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]: + node = _system().parameters.get_child(PARAMETER) + return { + status: { + year: float(node.get_child(status)(f"{year}-01-01")) + for year in ("2025", "2026") + } + for status in ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE", "JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") + } + + +def main() -> None: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + jobs = [] + for _, row in pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv").iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=6) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(run_scenario, jobs)) + + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP).set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + disagreements = [] + compared = 0 + for result in results: + for variable, value in result["values"].items(): + expected = float(sweep.loc[(result["scenario_id"], variable), "ldr_published"]) + compared += 1 + if abs(value - expected) > AGREE: + disagreements.append( + { + "scenario_id": result["scenario_id"], + "variable": variable, + "module": value, + "sweep_ldr_published": expected, + } + ) + params = parameter_values() + expected_params = { + status: {"2025": base, "2026": published} + for status, base, published in ( + ("SINGLE", 12_500.0, 12_875.0), + ("SEPARATE", 12_500.0, 12_875.0), + ("JOINT", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ("HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ("SURVIVING_SPOUSE", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ) + } + summary = { + "policyengine_us": version("policyengine-us"), + "outputs_compared": compared, + "disagreements": disagreements, + "parameters": params, + "parameters_as_expected": params == expected_params, + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True)) + if disagreements or not summary["parameters_as_expected"]: + raise SystemExit(1) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..43e22a79 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +{ + "changed_outputs": {}, + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17", + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": [ + 12324.0 + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..43e22a79 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +{ + "changed_outputs": {}, + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17", + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": [ + 12324.0 + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d76176d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json @@ -0,0 +1,262 @@ +{ + "outputs": [ + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "reference_values": { + "keep": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.3499755859375, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 819.1499633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 303.9352722167969 + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.260009765625, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.0452575683594 + }, + "hold_2025": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 830.3999633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 315.1852722167969 + }, + "exclude": null + }, + "published_reproduced": true, + "options": { + "keep": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.06272079169582412 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.0005167707332418559, + "max": 0.00028133168919453055 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -3.863225583700114e-05, + "max": 2.1031813147942557e-05 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "hold_2025": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "glm-5.3", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-5.6-terra", + "gpt-6-astra", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3", + "ox-alpha" + ], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-4.8", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3" + ] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.12544158339163403 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.002283981102237931, + "max": 0.004194709549594222 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + "gemini-3.7-flash": { + "published": 24, + "option": 25 + }, + "gemini-3.6-flash": 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a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fffba1ae --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +policyengine-us 2.15.17; 100 households +candidates (single; joint is 200%): engine=12835.0000, dec_dec_unrounded=12834.6351, annual_average=12828.9086, ldr_published=12875.0000, ldr_official=12838.0000, hold_2025=12500.0000 +baseline: 1984 outputs, 1928 scored, 0 scored outputs differ from the published reference + +engine (12835.0000): 0 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + +dec_dec_unrounded (12834.6351): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline dec_dec_unrounded dec_dec_unrounded_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.360962 0.010986 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.146210 0.010956 False + +annual_average (12828.9086): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline annual_average annual_average_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.532715 0.182739 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.318024 0.182770 False + +ldr_published (12875.0000): 2 outputs change, 2 by more than $1 (2 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline ldr_published ldr_published_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 819.149963 -1.200012 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 303.935272 -1.199982 False + +ldr_official (12838.0000): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline ldr_official ldr_official_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.260010 -0.089966 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.045258 -0.089996 False + +hold_2025 (12500.0000): 2 outputs change, 2 by more than $1 (2 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline hold_2025 hold_2025_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 830.399963 10.049988 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 315.185272 10.050018 False diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bc38a49d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "disagreements": [], + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "parameters": { + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "JOINT": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "SEPARATE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SINGLE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + } + }, + "parameters_as_expected": true, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17" +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bc38a49d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "disagreements": [], + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "parameters": { + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "JOINT": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "SEPARATE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SINGLE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + } + }, + "parameters_as_expected": true, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17" +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3745e2ea --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,91 @@ +# scenario_031 Medicaid annotations, October 5, 2026 + +This directory corrects the published audit text for one output: scenario_031's `head_medicaid_eligible` (California, single head age 67). The case note, the reference explanation and all 43 row annotations explained the reference (eligible) by subtracting a Medicare Part B premium from countable income. The reference system subtracts no premium. It applies California's $230 monthly income disregard instead. + +The rewrite changes text only. No reference, exclusion, failure class or score changes, and the frozen run directory is untouched. + +The finding came from the Medicare Part B audit (`../2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/`, PolicyEngine/policybench#193). + +## What the engine does + +These files hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17 as installed in the reference venv (`results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517`). The reference system is that version plus `latest_final` (`../2026-09-28/fixes/`), on the household `Scenario.to_pe_household` builds. `scripts/engine_values.py` recomputes every figure below on that system and asserts each relation the new text states. + +- **Category.** `medicaid_category` is `SENIOR_OR_DISABLED`. + - `is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid` requires three things: `is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled`, the income test and the asset test. + - `is_ssi_aged` is age 65 or older (`gov.ssa.ssi.eligibility.aged_threshold`), so age 67 meets the first condition. No SSI receipt or disability is needed. + - The adult expansion group does not apply. `is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc` requires age 19 to 64 (`categories.adult.age_range`) and no `is_medicare_eligible`. + - In `variables/gov/hhs/medicaid` that is the only formula that bars on Medicare eligibility. `medicaid_work_requirement_eligible` reads it as an exemption. `is_medicaid_eligible` itself is a category other than `NONE` plus immigration-status eligibility. + - No immigration status is listed, so the default, `CITIZEN`, applies. +- **Income.** `medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income` (`variables/gov/hhs/medicaid/income/`) adds three amounts: + - `ssi_marital_unearned_income`; + - income deemed from an ineligible parent; + - in-kind support and maintenance. + + The last two are 0 here, as is the income deemed from an ineligible spouse, which the formula adds after the disregard. SSI unearned income (`gov.ssa.ssi.income.sources.unearned`) includes `social_security`, `pension_income` and `retirement_distributions`. For this head that is $9,445.47 + $13,608 + $800 = $23,853.47. Social Security counts in full, and nothing is subtracted for the $1,165 of alimony paid. +- **Disregard.** The formula reads `gov.hhs.medicaid.eligibility.categories.senior_or_disabled.income.disregard.individual[state]`. For CA that is $230 a month. `_apply_medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_exclusions` passes it to `_apply_ssi_exclusions` as `general_exclusion`. That function uses SSI's $20 general exclusion only when no `general_exclusion` is given, so the $230 replaces the $20; it is not added to it. Countable income = $23,853.47 − 12 × $230 = $21,093.47. +- **Limit.** `medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit` is `income.limit.individual['CA']` (1.38) times the poverty guideline for one person: 1.38 × $15,960 (2026) = $22,024.80. `is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible` passes when income is at or below the limit. Countable income is $931.33 under it. +- **Assets.** `ssi_countable_resources` adds bank, stock and bond assets, $4,200 here. `assets.limit.individual['CA']` is $130,000 for 2026, and the test is assets below the limit. +- **Part B.** The engine treats the head as enrolled in Medicare and models a $2,434.80 Part B premium, but countable income does not read it. With `medicare_part_b_premium` at 0, or `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible` false, countable income is still $21,093.47 and the head is still eligible (`verification/engine_values.json`, readings `no_part_b` and `not_enrolled`). + +| | Annual | Monthly | +|---|---:|---:| +| SSI unearned income | $23,853.47 | $1,987.79 | +| less California's disregard | $2,760.00 | $230.00 | +| countable income | $21,093.47 | $1,757.79 | +| limit (138% of $15,960) | $22,024.80 | $1,835.40 | + +Gross income is $1,828.67 over the limit, and income less only SSI's $20 exclusion ($23,613.47) is still over it. A model that counted income under SSI rules but skipped California's disregard therefore fails the income test. + +The old text compared about $21,400 (gross less the Part B premium) with "about $21,600". That figure is 138% of the 2025 guideline ($15,650); the engine uses the 2026 guideline. + +## Where the old mechanism came from + +The judge's prompt for this case stated the wrong mechanism twice. + +- **The grounding line.** The grounding row for this case in `results/local/unified_audit/grounding.csv` (untracked; `GROUNDING_SHA256` in `scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py` pins it) describes the category as "a non-MAGI pathway whose income counting deducts health insurance premiums (including Medicare Part B) from countable income". No other case's grounding carries that phrase. +- **The reference explanation.** The old explanation said that countable income "is calculated by deducting health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B". + +Both are in the prompt of the verdict behind the published text (`results/local/gpt61sol-stage/gpt61sol-v1/audit/cases/us__scenario_031__head_medicaid_eligible/prompt.md`, lines 25 and 29). That verdict was an isolated, tool-less Opus 5.5 run (`docs/gpt61sol/judge_provenance.json`), so the prompt was all it saw. This rewrite corrects the reference explanation. A future audit stage should also regenerate that grounding line; this directory does not touch the untracked file, because a driver pins its hash. + +## What changed + +`rewrites.json` holds 45 wording-only rewrites. Each replaces a field's whole old text with its whole new text: + +- the case note (`us_case_notes.csv`); +- the reference explanation (`us_case_reference_explanations.csv`); +- the 43 row annotations (`us_audit_row_annotations.csv`). + +`scripts/apply_rewrites.py` applies them and re-pins the three files' sha256 in `paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json` (`audit_annotation_artifacts.files`). It refuses a row that is missing or not unique, or a field that holds neither the old nor the new text. The CSVs round-trip byte for byte, so nothing else in them changes. With `--check` it writes nothing and confirms every rewrite is in force. `tests/test_annotation_rewrites.py` keeps the ledger in force, so a release that rebuilds these files from an older base cannot silently restore the old text. + +Every row stays a model error. `failure_source` (`llm_error`), `failure_subtype` and `reference_suspect` are unchanged; every model answered 0 against a reference of 1. The subtypes were re-checked against the corrected mechanism: + +- **29 rows, `taxable_income_or_deductions`.** These models miscounted income. 17 compared income with no exclusion or disregard with the limit, 2 applied only SSI's $20 exclusion, 2 cited an exclusion of unstated size, and 8 asserted without figures that income was too high. Skipping California's disregard is still an income-counting error. Corpus practice puts countable-income errors on Medicaid rows in this subtype (97 rows, these 29 included); one Medicaid row uses `state_local_rule`. +- **4 rows, `thresholds_rates`.** Wrong threshold: 100% of the guideline, or an SSI income limit. +- **3 rows, `asset_resource`.** SSI's $2,000 resource limit, or another asset error. +- **7 rows, `categorical_eligibility`.** These models missed that age alone gives the head a category. + +These counts equal the recorded subtype counts (`verification/row_review.json`, `tally`). + +## What did not change + +- **The frozen run.** The run directory `paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/`, including `data.json.gz`, is untouched. The published payload (release `dashboard-data-20260930`) keeps the old text until a data release re-exports it. +- **Scores.** `scripts/payload_diff.py` rebuilds the payload from the frozen run with `export_country`, once with the annotations at `origin/main` and once with this tree's. The two differ in 132 paths, all in the scenario_031 `head_medicaid_eligible` cell, and only in its text fields: + - `annotation`, 43; + - `caseAnnotation`, 43; + - `referenceExplanation`, 46. + + No score, model statistic or other cell changes (`verification/payload_diff.json`). The base rebuild reproduces the frozen payload except claude-fable-5's usage fields, which the release drivers carry from the published payload (`CARRIED_USAGE`). + +## How the text was checked + +1. `scripts/engine_values.py` recomputed the engine values on the reference system and asserted each relation (`verification/engine_values.json`). +2. A Claude Code workflow drafted each row from the model's frozen response (`predictions.csv.gz`), against a fact sheet limited to what step 1 verified. A separate agent then checked every claim in each draft. It read the model's response itself, quoted the words each claim rests on, and corrected the draft. A final critic checked the rows against each other and against the case note and explanation. The record, with each row's evidence and the edits made after review, is `verification/row_review.json`. +3. An independent Subfleet review checked the result (`verification/independent_review.md`). + +## Related findings, not changed here + +- **scenario_114.** Both of its income tax outputs are proposed for exclusion (#191, #193). The engine check of its two case notes and their rows is posted on #193 for the release that adopts those records, rather than rewritten here: + - **Virginia note.** Group (4) blames models for leaving out the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses or applying the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor. The reference itself does both. The gap is the $2,434.80 Part B premium the engine counts in the medical deduction. Eleven Virginia rows repeat the error. + - **Federal note.** Group (3) ("missing the Part B premium") is right about the engine but rests on that unlisted premium. +- **Over-the-counter expenses elsewhere.** Seven case notes and rows in scenarios 016, 075 and 121 count over-the-counter expenses in the itemized medical deduction. `itemized_medical_expenses` adds only `medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums` and `other_medical_expenses`. No stated conclusion changes. Split into a separate task. +- **Structured value and explanation trailer.** On this output, claude-opus-4.8 and claude-sonnet-4.6 submitted 1 in the tool call, but their explanations end "value = 0", and the frozen prediction is 0. `eval_no_tools.py` now treats a valid structured value as canonical. Whether the frozen rows should be re-parsed is a scoring question, split into a separate task. The row text here describes the explanations as written. diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/rewrites.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/rewrites.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e3b574d9 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/rewrites.json @@ -0,0 +1,453 @@ +{ + "note": "Wording-only rewrites of the frozen audit annotations for scenario_031 head_medicaid_eligible (scripts/apply_rewrites.py applies them; tests/test_annotation_rewrites.py keeps them in force). Each replaces a field's whole old text with its whole new text. None changes a failure_source, failure_subtype, reference_suspect flag, exclusion, reference or score.", + "rewrites": [ + { + "file": "us_case_notes.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "field": "case_annotation", + "old": "At 67, the head qualifies as aged, so the engine tests Medi-Cal through the optional senior-or-disabled pathway (California's Aged & Disabled FPL program). This is a non-MAGI pathway with a 138% FPL income limit. Countable income is gross income minus health insurance premiums, including the Medicare Part B standard premium (about $202.90/month, or about $2,435/year in 2026). That brings the $23,853 gross down to about $21,400, below 138% FPL (about $21,600). The $4,200 in bank assets easily passes California's asset test. Almost every model compared gross or near-gross income with the limit and never subtracted the Part B premium. Others used the wrong threshold (100% FPL or the SSI rate), applied the $2,000 SSI resource limit, or denied that an aged person has a Medicaid category.", + "new": "At 67 the head is aged (65 or older), which alone meets the category condition of the engine's optional senior-or-disabled pathway; it needs no disability or SSI receipt. The adult expansion group (ages 19 to 64, no Medicare eligibility) does not apply, but in the engine's Medicaid rules Medicare eligibility bars only that group. The pathway counts income under SSI rules: Social Security ($9,445.47, in full), the $13,608 pension and the $800 IRA distribution give $23,853.47; the $1,165 of alimony paid is not subtracted. In place of SSI's $20 monthly general income exclusion, the engine applies California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline of $15,960). The $4,200 in bank assets is far below California's $130,000 asset limit for the pathway. The engine also models a $2,434.80 Medicare Part B premium for the head, but countable income does not subtract it: with the premium at zero, or the head not enrolled in Medicare, countable income is still $21,093.47. Most models (29 of 43) miscounted income: most of those compared about $23,853 with the limit, a few applied only SSI's $20 exclusion or an exclusion of unstated size, and several asserted without figures that income was too high. The rest used the wrong threshold (100% of the poverty guideline or an SSI income limit), applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit or otherwise judged the $4,200 too much, or denied the head a category, by treating Medicare eligibility or the lack of SSI receipt or a disability as disqualifying, or by testing only the adult expansion group.", + "reason": "The old note said countable income subtracts health insurance premiums, including the Medicare Part B premium, and compared about $21,400 with a 138% FPL limit of about $21,600 (2025 guideline). The engine applies California's $230 monthly disregard and the 2026 guideline: $21,093.47 against $22,024.80." + }, + { + "file": "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "field": "explanation", + "old": "PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is eligible for Medicaid in California as a senior-or-disabled individual. The person, age 67, qualifies through the optional senior-or-disabled category (a non-MAGI pathway) because they meet three conditions: they are aged or disabled (is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled = True), they satisfy the income test under this category (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible = True), and they meet the asset limits (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible = True). Additionally, the person satisfies California's immigration status requirements, having been in the United States for 5 years. Under the senior-or-disabled category, countable income is calculated by deducting health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, from gross income, which results in the household falling within California's income limits for this eligibility group.", + "new": "PolicyEngine determined that the head of household is eligible for Medicaid in California through the optional senior-or-disabled category. At 67 the head is aged, which meets the category's first condition (is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled = True) without SSI receipt or a disability; the adult expansion group (ages 19 to 64) does not apply, and in the engine's Medicaid rules Medicare eligibility bars only that group. Income follows SSI rules: Social Security ($9,445.47, counted in full), the private pension ($13,608) and the IRA distribution ($800) total $23,853.47; the $1,165 of alimony paid is not subtracted. California's $230 monthly income disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 general income exclusion, leaves countable income of $21,093.47, within the $22,024.80 limit, 138% of the 2026 federal poverty guideline for one person (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible = True). Countable resources are the $4,200 bank balance, under California's $130,000 limit for an individual (is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible = True). The household lists no immigration status, so the engine's default status (citizen) applies and the immigration test passes.", + "reason": "The old explanation said countable income deducts health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, and that the head had been in the United States for 5 years. The engine deducts no premium; it applies California's $230 monthly disregard. No immigration status is listed, so the engine's default status (citizen) applies." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It correctly picked the aged pathway and its 138% FPL limit. But it built countable income by subtracting only alimony ($22,688) and never subtracted the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year). With that deduction, countable income is about $21,400, which is under the limit.", + "new": "It took the aged pathway and a 138% limit of about $1,800 a month, subtracted the $1,165 of alimony to put income at about $1,890 a month, and assumed no specific disregard, saying even SSI-style disregards would leave it over. The engine does not subtract alimony; it takes $1,987.79 a month less California's $230 disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied only the $240 general income exclusion ($23,613) against the 138% FPL aged/disabled limit. It left out the senior-or-disabled deduction for health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B (about $2,435/year), which puts countable income below the roughly $21,600 limit.", + "new": "It used the aged pathway but applied only SSI's $240 annual general exclusion, putting countable income at $23,613 against a 138% limit of about $21,600. California's $230 monthly disregard takes the place of that $20 exclusion, so the engine counts $23,853.47 less $2,760, or $21,093.47, which is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with a 138% FPL figure understated at $18,564 and never deducted the Medicare Part B premium from countable income. With Part B subtracted, countable income is about $21,400, under 138% FPL (about $21,600). It also doubted the $4,200 in assets, although that amount easily passes California's senior-or-disabled asset test.", + "new": "It compared gross income of $23,853, and that amount less the $1,165 of alimony, against a 138% limit it understated at about $18,564, and doubted the $4,200 in assets. The engine subtracts no alimony: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The $4,200 is far under California's $130,000 asset limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It changed its answer to a 100% FPL limit (about $15,650). California's senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL. It also counted the full $23,853 without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income to about $21,400, within the limit.", + "new": "It first called gross income of $23,853 well below the threshold, then switched to a MAGI-based 100% limit of about $15,650 (the 2025 guideline), and its explanation concluded the head was ineligible. The engine's senior pathway uses SSI income rules and 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80; it counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It tested gross income of $23,853 against a 100–138% FPL range and never subtracted health insurance premiums. The non-MAGI senior-or-disabled count deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), which puts income under the 138% FPL limit.", + "new": "It tested gross income of $23,853 against an aged limit it gave as 100% to 138% of the poverty line, about $15,650 to $21,600 (2025-guideline figures), and found it over. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It used the correct 138% FPL aged limit but compared it with gross income of $23,853. Under this pathway, countable income is net of the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving about $21,400, which is below the limit.", + "new": "It used the 138% aged limit, at about $21,600 (the 2025-guideline figure), but compared it with gross income of $23,853. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under its $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It switched between the ACA expansion test, which does not cover someone aged 67, and a 100% FPL aged limit. It settled on gross $23,853 against an understated 138% FPL figure of $20,783. It never used the senior-or-disabled pathway's deduction of the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income under the real 138% FPL limit.", + "new": "It moved between the adult expansion test, which excludes someone aged 67, and a 100% aged limit of $15,060; its explanation settled on the expansion test, with gross income of $23,853 against $20,783, which is 138% of its understated $15,060 guideline. The engine's senior pathway counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It first stated the correct Aged & Disabled FPL limit (about $21,597), which its own $14,408 figure would pass. Then it switched to the SSI federal benefit rate (about $13,596) as the binding limit. It also treated Social Security as MAGI-excluded, although the non-MAGI count includes Social Security in full and instead deducts the Medicare Part B premium.", + "new": "It excluded most Social Security to get $14,408, said 138% applied only to expansion adults under 65, cited a 138% aged limit of about $21,597 that $14,408 would pass, then used an SSI limit of about $13,596 as binding. The engine counts Social Security in full and uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) gives $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It said the head is in no categorical group, but at 67 the head is aged, which is exactly the senior-or-disabled category. It also used unadjusted income of about $23.9k and skipped the Medicare Part B premium deduction, which brings countable income below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It said the head was in no categorical group and that countable income of about $23.9k, including Social Security and with no disregard, exceeded 138% FPL. At 67 the head is aged, which alone meets the category condition of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and the engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL without deducting health insurance premiums. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving countable income of about $21,400, under the limit.", + "new": "It compared gross income of about $23,853 with 138% FPL and concluded the head was over the limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It used gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL of $1,732/month. It never deducted the Medicare Part B premium (about $203/month), which brings countable income to about $1,785/month, under the correct 138% FPL of about $1,800/month.", + "new": "It tested gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL limit of $1,732. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79, under the actual limit of $1,835.40 a month (138% of the 2026 guideline). Both errors mattered: income after the disregard still tops the model's $1,732 figure.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and required SSI receipt for a categorical route. The senior-or-disabled pathway does not require SSI and deducts the Medicare Part B premium, leaving countable income below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and found it over California's FPL-based limit for a senior, without stating the limit. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218. Deducting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), as the senior-or-disabled income count requires, leaves about $21,400, below even the model's own threshold.", + "new": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218, slightly above the engine's $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under either figure.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It picked the correct 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit (about $22,080 by its estimate) but tested gross income of $23,853. The pathway deducts Medicare Part B premiums from countable income, which brings it to about $21,400, under the limit.", + "new": "It used a 138% FPL limit of about $22,080, close to the engine's $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline), but tested gross income of $23,853 against it. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It gave no derivation, and its 'No' is consistent with comparing gross income of $23,853 with an FPL limit. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income of about $21,400, below 138% FPL, so the head is eligible.", + "new": "It gave no figures or pathway, saying only that household income exceeded the Medicaid limit \"for a single adult.\" At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It tested gross income of $23,853 against the 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit without deducting health insurance premiums. Subtracting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) puts countable income under the limit.", + "new": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL, without stating the dollar limit, and found it over. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It correctly identified the non-MAGI 138% FPL limit but measured gross monthly income against it. The non-MAGI senior-or-disabled count deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which brings income below the limit.", + "new": "It correctly picked the 138% FPL limit for what it called \"free non-MAGI Medi-Cal\" but gave no figures, saying only that the head's monthly income was over it; in the same response it put gross income at $23,853 for its federal tax and SNAP answers. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from $1,987.79 a month, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79 a month, under the $1,835.40 monthly limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It gave no derivation. The correct path is the aged (senior-or-disabled) category: $23,853 gross minus the Medicare Part B premium gives about $21,400, under 138% FPL, with assets passing. The 'No' reflects skipping that premium deduction.", + "new": "It gave no figures, threshold or pathway, citing only the head's age and income. At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) is $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared the full $23,853 with the aged Medi-Cal threshold without subtracting the Medicare Part B premium. The senior-or-disabled pathway deducts that premium, leaving countable income below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable and said it exceeded an unstated threshold for people 65 or older. Gross income is $1,828.67 over the limit, but the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It correctly identified the non-MAGI elderly pathway but did not deduct health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, from countable income. That deduction brings income from $23,853 to about $21,400, under the 138% FPL limit.", + "new": "It placed the head in what it called the \"non-MAGI\" elderly pathway but gave no income figure or limit, and it judged income too high, which holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. In the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It said total income 'well' exceeds 138% FPL, but gross income is only about 150% FPL. After the senior-or-disabled pathway deducts the Medicare Part B premium, countable income falls below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It tested total income against a 138% FPL limit with no disregard and called it \"well\" over, but $23,853.47 is about 149% of the 2026 guideline, only $1,828.67 over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "glm-5.2", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It assumed Medicare eligibility rules out Medicaid. Medicare-eligible seniors qualify for Medicaid (dual eligibility) through the aged senior-or-disabled pathway, which this head meets on income after the Part B deduction and on assets.", + "new": "It assumed that Medicare eligibility at 65 or older bars Medicaid and ran no income test. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group, and age 67 alone meets the aged test for the senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "glm-5.3", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It tested the head against the ACA adult expansion limit, which does not apply at age 67, and overstated income as about 199% FPL; $23,853 is about 150% FPL. The applicable pathway is senior-or-disabled, where countable income after the Medicare Part B premium deduction is under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It applied the adult expansion limit, which excludes anyone over 64, comparing gross income of about $1,988 a month (about 149% of the 2026 guideline, not the 199% it stated) with an understated limit of about $1,600. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $1,987.79 less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It looked for a disability flag and missed that age 67 alone meets the aged criterion for the senior-or-disabled pathway. Under that pathway, income net of the Medicare Part B premium is below 138% FPL and the $4,200 in assets passes the asset test.", + "new": "It denied eligibility because no disability or low-income flag was listed and income was \"substantial\", without comparing any income figure with a limit. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied a spend-down (medically needy) standard and counted only the $50 over-the-counter expense as a medical deduction. The applicable pathway is the 138% FPL senior-or-disabled program, which deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) and leaves countable income under the limit.", + "new": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at age 67 but tested the full $23,853 against an unstated aged income or \"spend-down\" standard, with only minimal medical expenses to offset it. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway instead subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It gave no computation, and its 'above threshold' conclusion matches testing gross income. The senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts the Medicare Part B premium from $23,853, leaving about $21,400, below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It gave no figures, pathway or threshold and only asserted that countable income was above the applicable California limit, which holds against the engine's limit only if the state's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $23,853.47 less that disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It correctly picked the aged pathway but compared unadjusted retirement income with the limit. That pathway deducts health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, which brings countable income under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It identified the aged pathway but concluded, without showing figures, that retirement income exceeded California's limit. That holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 monthly disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20: gross income of $23,853.47 is $1,828.67 over the limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts that disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It used an SSI-linked income level as the aged Medicaid test. California's optional senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL, and after the Medicare Part B premium deduction the head's countable income is under that limit.", + "new": "It placed the head in the aged pathway but tested income against an \"SSI-linked income level,\" giving no figures. The engine's limit for this pathway in California is $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and countable income is $21,093.47: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied only the $20/month general income exclusion and left out the senior-or-disabled deduction for health insurance premiums. Subtracting the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year) brings countable income below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at 67 but said retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeded California's aged limit, giving no figures. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared gross retirement income with the aged threshold without deducting the Medicare Part B premium. The senior-or-disabled income count requires that deduction, which leaves the head at about $21,400, under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It said the head's retirement income exceeded California's aged Medicaid threshold, naming no exclusion and giving no figures. Gross income of $23,853.47 is over the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), but the engine first subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It deducted only the general income exclusion and missed the health insurance premium deduction, including Medicare Part B, that the senior-or-disabled pathway applies. With that deduction, countable income falls below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It said retirement income exceeded California's aged limit after \"the applicable general income exclusion,\" without stating its amount, the income or the limit. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "grok-4.3", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It claimed PolicyEngine excludes Medicare-eligible (dual-eligible) people from Medicaid. The aged senior-or-disabled pathway is built for Medicare-age individuals, and this head meets its income test (after the Part B deduction) and its asset test.", + "new": "It ruled the head out as Medicare-eligible, claiming the engine excludes \"full dual eligibles\" from Medicaid. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group: at 67 the head counts as aged for the senior-or-disabled pathway, countable income of $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, $2,760 a year) is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and $4,200 in assets is under the $130,000 limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "grok-4.5", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It treated $4,200 in bank assets as over the aged resource limit, but $4,200 easily passes California's senior-or-disabled asset test ($130,000 for an individual in 2026). It also tested gross income of $23,853 without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It said bank assets of $4,200 and countable income of about $23,853 both exceeded California's aged limits, counting gross income in full. The pathway's asset limit is $130,000, so $4,200 passes, and the engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "grok-4.6", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It mixed MAGI and ABD counting and compared the full $23,853 with the Aged & Disabled FPL limit. The non-MAGI count deducts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435/year), leaving about $21,400, under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It counted the full $23,853 as \"MAGI/ABD countable income\" and said it exceeded California's \"Aged & Disabled FPL\" limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "grok-4.7", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against the 138% FPL Aged & Disabled limit. It missed the deduction of health insurance premiums, including Medicare Part B, which brings countable income below the limit.", + "new": "It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against California's 138% FPL limit, which leaves about $23,613, still over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine uses California's $230 monthly disregard in place of that $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied the $2,000 SSI resource limit. California's senior-or-disabled Medi-Cal asset limit is $130,000 for an individual in 2026, so $4,200 passes, and income after the Medicare Part B deduction is under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It applied a $2,000 asset limit to aged Medicaid and denied eligibility because the $4,200 in bank assets exceeded it, but $2,000 is SSI's resource limit, not this pathway's test. The engine's California senior-or-disabled pathway allows assets below $130,000, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "inkling", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It used a 100% FPL limit (about $15,650) for aged Medi-Cal, but California's senior-or-disabled pathway uses 138% FPL. It also counted gross income without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings countable income to about $21,400, under the limit.", + "new": "It applied a 100% FPL limit of about $15,650, the 2025 guideline, and compared gross income of about $23,853 against it. The engine uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80, and subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) from $23,853.47, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It said the head fits no non-MAGI aged or disabled pathway because they are not disabled or on SSI. At 67 the head is aged, which qualifies them for the senior-or-disabled category without SSI receipt, and they pass its income test (after the Part B deduction) and its asset test.", + "new": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but ruled out the aged and disabled pathways because the head was not disabled, blind or an SSI recipient. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs no disability, blindness or SSI receipt; age 67 alone meets its aged criterion. Countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "kimi-k3", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It correctly excluded the adult expansion group but compared unadjusted retirement income with the aged limit. The senior-or-disabled pathway deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but said the listed retirement income exceeded the California aged income limit, without naming a limit or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "minimax-m3", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It guessed that roughly $24k of income exceeds the senior limit without using any threshold or deduction. The correct calculation subtracts the Medicare Part B premium (about $2,435) from $23,853, which gives about $21,400, under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It guessed that about $24,000 of income might exceed an unstated senior limit and answered 0 without naming a threshold or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "ox-alpha", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It applied the SSI $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets. California's senior-or-disabled asset test ($130,000 individual limit in 2026) is passed. It also compared gross income with the income standard without deducting the Medicare Part B premium, which brings income below 138% FPL.", + "new": "It correctly treated the head as aged but applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets and said gross income of about $24,000 exceeded the aged income standard. The engine's California pathway allows assets below $130,000 and subtracts a $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with 'typical' ABD limits and treated missing SSI or disability status as disqualifying. The aged senior-or-disabled pathway requires neither, and it deducts the Medicare Part B premium, which leaves countable income under 138% FPL.", + "new": "It counted $23,853 of Social Security, pension and IRA income in full, said it exceeded \"typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits\" without naming one, and cited the missing disability or SSI status. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs neither, since age 67 alone meets its aged criterion, and it subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from $23,853.47, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + }, + { + "file": "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "scenario_id": "scenario_031", + "variable": "head_medicaid_eligible", + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "field": "annotation", + "old": "It concluded the 67-year-old is in no eligibility category. Age 65+ is itself the aged criterion for the senior-or-disabled pathway, where income net of the Medicare Part B premium is below 138% FPL and assets pass.", + "new": "It said the 67-year-old was not disabled, blind or in any other listed category, and that income was above the senior pathway's limit without naming a figure. Age 65 or older alone meets the aged criterion of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "reason": "The old text explained the reference with a Medicare Part B premium subtracted from countable income; the engine subtracts no premium. It counts $23,853.47 of SSI unearned income and applies California's $230 monthly disregard in place of SSI's $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 against a $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The row stays a model error." + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/apply_rewrites.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/apply_rewrites.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a0f58f09 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/apply_rewrites.py @@ -0,0 +1,152 @@ +"""Apply rewrites.json to the frozen audit annotations and re-pin their hashes. + +Each rewrite names one annotation file, one row (scenario_id and variable, plus model for +row annotations), one text field, the field's whole old text and its whole new text. The +script refuses a rewrite whose row is missing or not unique, or whose field holds neither +the old nor the new text, and it changes nothing else: no other field, no other row, no +row order and no quoting. It then writes the new sha256 of each annotation file into +paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json (``audit_annotation_artifacts.files``). + +``--check`` writes nothing and fails unless every rewrite is in force and the manifest +pins the files as they are. + + python reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/apply_rewrites.py + python reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/apply_rewrites.py --check +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import hashlib +import io +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +REWRITES = HERE / "rewrites.json" +MANIFEST = ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json" + +KEYS = { + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable", "model"), + "us_case_notes.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable"), + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable"), +} +FIELDS = { + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": "annotation", + "us_case_notes.csv": "case_annotation", + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": "explanation", +} + + +def _read(path: Path) -> tuple[list[str], list[list[str]], bytes]: + raw = path.read_bytes() + rows = list(csv.reader(io.StringIO(raw.decode("utf-8"), newline=""))) + return rows[0], rows[1:], raw + + +def _write(header: list[str], rows: list[list[str]]) -> bytes: + out = io.StringIO(newline="") + csv.writer(out, lineterminator="\n").writerows([header, *rows]) + return out.getvalue().encode("utf-8") + + +def _sha256(data: bytes) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(data).hexdigest() + + +def main() -> int: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--check", action="store_true") + args = parser.parse_args() + + payload = json.loads(REWRITES.read_text()) + manifest = json.loads(MANIFEST.read_text()) + block = manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"] + annotations = ROOT / block["path"] + problems: list[str] = [] + changed_files: dict[str, bytes] = {} + + by_file: dict[str, list[dict]] = {} + for item in payload["rewrites"]: + by_file.setdefault(item["file"], []).append(item) + + for name, items in sorted(by_file.items()): + if name not in KEYS: + problems.append(f"{name}: not a rewritable annotation file") + continue + header, rows, raw = _read(annotations / name) + # The round trip must reproduce the file, so a write changes only the + # rewritten fields. + if _write(header, rows) != raw: + problems.append(f"{name}: does not round-trip byte for byte") + continue + columns = {column: i for i, column in enumerate(header)} + key_columns = [columns[c] for c in KEYS[name]] + field = columns[FIELDS[name]] + index: dict[tuple, list[int]] = {} + for i, row in enumerate(rows): + index.setdefault(tuple(row[c] for c in key_columns), []).append(i) + seen: set[tuple] = set() + for item in items: + if item["field"] != FIELDS[name]: + problems.append(f"{name}: {item['field']!r} is not the text field") + continue + key = tuple(item[c] for c in KEYS[name]) + if key in seen: + problems.append(f"{name}: two rewrites of {key}") + continue + seen.add(key) + hits = index.get(key, []) + if len(hits) != 1: + problems.append(f"{name}: {key} matches {len(hits)} rows") + continue + current = rows[hits[0]][field] + if current == item["new"]: + continue + if current != item["old"]: + problems.append(f"{name}: {key} holds neither the old nor the new text") + continue + if args.check: + problems.append(f"{name}: {key} still holds the old text") + continue + rows[hits[0]][field] = item["new"] + data = _write(header, rows) + if data != raw: + changed_files[name] = data + + if problems: + print("\n".join(problems), file=sys.stderr) + return 1 + + if not args.check: + for name, data in changed_files.items(): + (annotations / name).write_bytes(data) + print(f"rewrote {name}") + + stale = [] + for name in sorted(KEYS): + digest = _sha256((annotations / name).read_bytes()) + if block["files"][name] != digest: + stale.append(name) + block["files"][name] = digest + if stale and args.check: + print(f"manifest pins stale hashes for {stale}", file=sys.stderr) + return 1 + if stale: + text = json.dumps(manifest, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n" + original = MANIFEST.read_text() + # Keep the manifest's formatting: it must round-trip before we rewrite it. + if json.dumps(json.loads(original), indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n" != original: + print("manifest.json does not round-trip; refusing to rewrite it", file=sys.stderr) + return 1 + MANIFEST.write_text(text) + print(f"re-pinned {stale} in {MANIFEST.relative_to(ROOT)}") + print(f"{len(payload['rewrites'])} rewrites in force") + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + raise SystemExit(main()) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/engine_values.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/engine_values.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..de54e2ba --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/engine_values.py @@ -0,0 +1,294 @@ +"""Recompute how the reference system decides scenario_031's head Medicaid eligibility. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes), on the household +``Scenario.to_pe_household`` builds. The script records the 2026 parameters and the +intermediate variables of the optional senior-or-disabled pathway, under the engine's +modeled Medicare Part B premium and under two readings without it: + +``no_part_b`` + The head's ``medicare_part_b_premium`` is 0. +``not_enrolled`` + The head's ``takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`` is False, so the head is not enrolled. + +It asserts what the rewritten annotations say: countable income is SSI unearned income +less 12 months of California's $230 disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 general income +exclusion; it is the same under every reading; it is at or below 138% of the 2026 +poverty guideline; gross income and income less only the $20 exclusion are above that +limit; countable resources are below California's asset limit; and the reference equals +the published value. + +Run from a policybench checkout with the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv: + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/engine_values.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import copy +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +SCENARIO = "scenario_031" +OUTPUT = "head_medicaid_eligible" +YEAR = 2026 +PERIOD = str(YEAR) +STATE = "CA" +CENT = 0.005 + +READINGS = { + "modeled": {}, + "no_part_b": {"medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0}, + "not_enrolled": {"takes_up_medicare_if_eligible": False}, +} + +PERSON_VARIABLES = ( + "age", + "is_ssi_aged", + "is_ssi_disabled", + "is_blind", + "is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled", + "is_ssi_recipient_for_medicaid", + "is_medicare_eligible", + "medicare_enrolled", + "medicare_part_b_premium", + "social_security", + "pension_income", + "taxable_ira_distributions", + "alimony_expense", + "ssi_unearned_income", + "ssi_marital_unearned_income", + "ssi_marital_earned_income", + "ssi_in_kind_support_and_maintenance", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_unearned_income_deemed_from_ineligible_parent", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_deemed_from_ineligible_spouse", + "ssi_couple_computation_applies", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit", + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible", + "ssi_countable_resources", + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible", + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid", + "is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc", + "is_adult_for_medicaid", + "immigration_status", + "is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible", + "medicaid_category", + "is_medicaid_eligible", +) + + +def _system(): + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="medicaid_031_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location( + "latest_final", target / "latest_final.py" + ) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + + +def _scalar(value): + array = np.asarray(value) + if array.dtype.kind in "OUS": + return str(array[0]) + if array.dtype == bool: + return bool(array[0]) + return float(array[0]) + + +def main() -> None: + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + row = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"] == SCENARIO].iloc[0] + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + assert list(situation["people"]) == ["head"], situation["people"].keys() + + system = _system() + p = system.parameters(f"{PERIOD}-01-01") + sod = p.gov.hhs.medicaid.eligibility.categories.senior_or_disabled + parameters = { + "senior_or_disabled.income.disregard.individual[CA] (monthly)": float( + sod.income.disregard.individual[STATE] + ), + "senior_or_disabled.income.limit.individual[CA] (share of FPG)": float( + sod.income.limit.individual[STATE] + ), + "senior_or_disabled.assets.limit.individual[CA]": float( + sod.assets.limit.individual[STATE] + ), + "ssa.ssi.income.exclusions.general (monthly)": float( + p.gov.ssa.ssi.income.exclusions.general + ), + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.aged_threshold": float( + p.gov.ssa.ssi.eligibility.aged_threshold + ), + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.limit.individual": float( + p.gov.ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.limit.individual + ), + "ssa.ssi.income.sources.unearned": list(p.gov.ssa.ssi.income.sources.unearned), + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.countable": list( + p.gov.ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.countable + ), + "hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2026": float( + p.gov.hhs.fpg.first_person["CONTIGUOUS_US"] + ), + "hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2025": float( + system.parameters("2025-01-01").gov.hhs.fpg.first_person["CONTIGUOUS_US"] + ), + } + + readings = {} + for name, inputs in READINGS.items(): + case = copy.deepcopy(situation) + for variable, value in inputs.items(): + case["people"]["head"][variable] = {PERIOD: value} + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=system, situation=case) + values = {} + for variable in PERSON_VARIABLES: + result = sim.calculate(variable, YEAR) + if hasattr(result, "decode_to_str"): + values[variable] = str(result.decode_to_str()[0]) + else: + values[variable] = _scalar(result) + readings[name] = values + + modeled = readings["modeled"] + disregard = parameters["senior_or_disabled.income.disregard.individual[CA] (monthly)"] + general = parameters["ssa.ssi.income.exclusions.general (monthly)"] + share = parameters["senior_or_disabled.income.limit.individual[CA] (share of FPG)"] + fpg = parameters["hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2026"] + asset_limit = parameters["senior_or_disabled.assets.limit.individual[CA]"] + gross = modeled["ssi_marital_unearned_income"] + countable = modeled["medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income"] + limit = modeled["medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit"] + + # The reference is the published one. + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + published = reference[ + (reference["scenario_id"] == SCENARIO) & (reference["variable"] == OUTPUT) + ] + assert len(published) == 1, published + published_value = float(published.iloc[0]["value"]) + assert published_value == 1.0, published_value + assert modeled["is_medicaid_eligible"] is True + + # Unearned income is Social Security, the pension and the IRA distribution. + parts = ( + modeled["social_security"] + + modeled["pension_income"] + + modeled["taxable_ira_distributions"] + ) + assert abs(gross - parts) < CENT, (gross, parts) + assert modeled["ssi_marital_earned_income"] == 0.0 + for variable in ( + "ssi_in_kind_support_and_maintenance", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_unearned_income_deemed_from_ineligible_parent", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_deemed_from_ineligible_spouse", + ): + assert modeled[variable] == 0.0, variable + assert modeled["ssi_couple_computation_applies"] is False + + # The CA disregard replaces the $20 general exclusion; it is not added to it. + assert disregard == 230.0 and general == 20.0 + assert abs(countable - (gross - 12 * disregard)) < CENT, (countable, gross) + assert abs(limit - share * fpg) < CENT, (limit, share, fpg) + assert share == 1.38 and fpg == 15_960.0 + assert countable <= limit + assert gross > limit + assert gross - 12 * general > limit + + # Assets and category. + assert modeled["ssi_countable_resources"] == 4_200.0 + assert asset_limit == 130_000.0 + assert modeled["ssi_countable_resources"] < asset_limit + assert modeled["is_ssi_aged"] is True and modeled["is_ssi_disabled"] is False + assert modeled["is_ssi_recipient_for_medicaid"] is False + assert modeled["is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc"] is False + assert modeled["medicaid_category"] == "SENIOR_OR_DISABLED" + # No status is listed, so the default applies. + assert modeled["immigration_status"] == "CITIZEN" + assert modeled["is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible"] is True + + # The modeled Part B premium does not enter the test. + assert modeled["medicare_enrolled"] is True + assert abs(modeled["medicare_part_b_premium"] - 2_434.80) < CENT + for name in ("no_part_b", "not_enrolled"): + other = readings[name] + assert other["medicare_part_b_premium"] == 0.0, name + for variable in ( + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income", + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit", + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible", + "is_medicaid_eligible", + "medicaid_category", + ): + assert other[variable] == modeled[variable], (name, variable) + + summary = { + "gross_unearned_income": round(gross, 2), + "disregard_annual": 12 * disregard, + "countable_income": round(countable, 2), + "income_limit": round(limit, 2), + "margin_under_limit": round(limit - countable, 2), + "gross_over_limit": round(gross - limit, 2), + "gross_less_ssi_general_exclusion_only": round(gross - 12 * general, 2), + "gross_share_of_2026_fpg": round(gross / fpg, 4), + "limit_at_2025_fpg": round( + share * parameters["hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2025"], 2 + ), + "monthly": { + "gross": round(gross / 12, 2), + "countable": round(countable / 12, 2), + "limit": round(limit / 12, 2), + }, + } + payload = { + "note": ( + "scenario_031 head_medicaid_eligible on the reference system " + "(policyengine-us 2.15.17 + reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py). " + "Written by scripts/engine_values.py, which asserts every relation the " + "rewritten annotations state." + ), + "policyengine_us": version("policyengine-us"), + "published_reference": published_value, + "parameters": parameters, + "summary": summary, + "readings": readings, + } + out = HERE / "verification/engine_values.json" + out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + out.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=1, sort_keys=False) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/payload_diff.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/payload_diff.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f9df8711 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/payload_diff.py @@ -0,0 +1,133 @@ +"""Show that the rewrites change no published score: rebuild the payload both ways and diff. + +Copies the frozen run's reference files and predictions into two scratch bundles (it never +writes the snapshot), one with the annotation files as committed at ``--base`` and one with +the working tree's, and runs ``policybench.full_run_export.export_country`` on each, the +export the release drivers run. It writes ``verification/payload_diff.json``: every payload +path that differs between the two rebuilds, and every path where the base rebuild differs +from the frozen payload (data.json.gz). + + uv run python reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/scripts/payload_diff.py \\ + --base origin/main --scratch +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import json +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT)) +RUN_NAME = "us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +RUN = ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs" / RUN_NAME +ANNOTATIONS = f"annotations/{RUN_NAME}" +RUN_FILES = ( + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", + "predictions.csv.gz", +) +ANNOTATION_FILES = ( + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv", + "us_case_notes.csv", + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv", +) + + +def _diff(a, b, path, out) -> None: + if isinstance(a, dict) and isinstance(b, dict): + for key in sorted(set(a) | set(b), key=str): + _diff(a.get(key, ""), b.get(key, ""), [*path, key], out) + elif isinstance(a, list) and isinstance(b, list) and len(a) == len(b): + for i, (x, y) in enumerate(zip(a, b)): + _diff(x, y, [*path, i], out) + elif a != b and not (isinstance(a, float) and isinstance(b, float) and a != a and b != b): + out.append(path) + + +def main() -> None: + from policybench.full_run_export import committed_reference_digest, export_country + + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--base", default="origin/main") + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True, type=Path) + args = parser.parse_args() + + digest = committed_reference_digest("us") + payloads = {} + for label in ("base", "working_tree"): + bundle = args.scratch / label + shutil.rmtree(bundle, ignore_errors=True) + (bundle / "us").mkdir(parents=True) + (bundle / "annotations").mkdir() + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, bundle / "us" / name) + for name in ANNOTATION_FILES: + target = bundle / "annotations" / name + if label == "base": + target.write_bytes( + subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(ROOT), "show", f"{args.base}:{ANNOTATIONS}/{name}"], + capture_output=True, + check=True, + ).stdout + ) + else: + shutil.copy2(ROOT / ANNOTATIONS / name, target) + payloads[label] = export_country(bundle / "us", reference_digest=digest) + + changed: list[list] = [] + _diff(payloads["base"], payloads["working_tree"], [], changed) + frozen = json.loads(gzip.open(RUN / "data.json.gz").read()) + reproduction: list[list] = [] + _diff(frozen, payloads["base"], [], reproduction) + stats = payloads["base"]["modelStats"] + + def label(path): + if path and path[0] == "modelStats": + return ["modelStats", stats[path[1]]["model"], *path[2:]] + return path + + sections = sorted({str(p[0]) for p in changed}) + cells = sorted({(p[1], p[2]) for p in changed if p[0] == "scenarioPredictions"}) + fields = sorted({str(p[-1]) for p in changed}) + record = { + "note": ( + "Payload rebuilt from the frozen run by export_country with the base's " + "annotation files and with the working tree's. 'changed' lists every path " + "that differs between the two rebuilds. 'base_vs_frozen' lists every path " + "where the base rebuild differs from the frozen data.json.gz: claude-fable-5's " + "usage, which the release drivers carry from the published payload " + "(CARRIED_USAGE in scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py) because export cannot " + "recompute it." + ), + "base": args.base, + "changed_sections": sections, + "changed_cells": [list(c) for c in cells], + "changed_fields": fields, + "changed_paths": len(changed), + "changed_by_field": {f: sum(1 for p in changed if p[-1] == f) for f in fields}, + "base_vs_frozen": [[str(x) for x in label(p)] for p in reproduction], + } + out = HERE / "verification/payload_diff.json" + out.write_text(json.dumps(record, indent=1) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(record, indent=1)) + assert sections == ["scenarioPredictions"], sections + assert cells == [("scenario_031", "head_medicaid_eligible")], cells + assert set(fields) <= {"annotation", "caseAnnotation", "referenceExplanation"}, fields + fable = {i for i, s in enumerate(stats) if s["model"] == "claude-fable-5"} + assert all(p[0] == "modelStats" and p[1] in fable for p in reproduction), ( + reproduction + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/engine_values.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/engine_values.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..10d5ceb0 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/engine_values.json @@ -0,0 +1,157 @@ +{ + "note": "scenario_031 head_medicaid_eligible on the reference system (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py). Written by scripts/engine_values.py, which asserts every relation the rewritten annotations state.", + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17", + "published_reference": 1.0, + "parameters": { + "senior_or_disabled.income.disregard.individual[CA] (monthly)": 230.0, + "senior_or_disabled.income.limit.individual[CA] (share of FPG)": 1.38, + "senior_or_disabled.assets.limit.individual[CA]": 130000.0, + "ssa.ssi.income.exclusions.general (monthly)": 20.0, + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.aged_threshold": 65.0, + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.limit.individual": 2000.0, + "ssa.ssi.income.sources.unearned": [ + "pension_income", + "social_security", + "disability_benefits", + "veterans_benefits", + "survivor_benefits", + "workers_compensation", + "unemployment_compensation", + "retirement_distributions", + "gi_cash_assistance", + "alimony_income", + "child_support_received", + "financial_assistance", + "dividend_income", + "interest_income", + "rental_income" + ], + "ssa.ssi.eligibility.resources.countable": [ + "bank_account_assets", + "stock_assets", + "bond_assets" + ], + "hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2026": 15960.0, + "hhs.fpg.first_person[CONTIGUOUS_US] 2025": 15650.0 + }, + "summary": { + "gross_unearned_income": 23853.47, + "disregard_annual": 2760.0, + "countable_income": 21093.47, + "income_limit": 22024.8, + "margin_under_limit": 931.33, + "gross_over_limit": 1828.67, + "gross_less_ssi_general_exclusion_only": 23613.47, + "gross_share_of_2026_fpg": 1.4946, + "limit_at_2025_fpg": 21597.0, + "monthly": { + "gross": 1987.79, + "countable": 1757.79, + "limit": 1835.4 + } + }, + "readings": { + "modeled": { + "age": 67.0, + "is_ssi_aged": true, + "is_ssi_disabled": false, + "is_blind": false, + "is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled": true, + "is_ssi_recipient_for_medicaid": false, + "is_medicare_eligible": true, + "medicare_enrolled": true, + "medicare_part_b_premium": 2434.800048828125, + "social_security": 9445.470703125, + "pension_income": 13608.0, + "taxable_ira_distributions": 800.0, + "alimony_expense": 1165.0, + "ssi_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_earned_income": 0.0, + "ssi_in_kind_support_and_maintenance": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_unearned_income_deemed_from_ineligible_parent": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_deemed_from_ineligible_spouse": 0.0, + "ssi_couple_computation_applies": false, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income": 21093.470703125, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit": 22024.80078125, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible": true, + "ssi_countable_resources": 4200.0, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible": true, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid": true, + "is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc": false, + "is_adult_for_medicaid": false, + "immigration_status": "CITIZEN", + "is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible": true, + "medicaid_category": "SENIOR_OR_DISABLED", + "is_medicaid_eligible": true + }, + "no_part_b": { + "age": 67.0, + "is_ssi_aged": true, + "is_ssi_disabled": false, + "is_blind": false, + "is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled": true, + "is_ssi_recipient_for_medicaid": false, + "is_medicare_eligible": true, + "medicare_enrolled": true, + "medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0, + "social_security": 9445.470703125, + "pension_income": 13608.0, + "taxable_ira_distributions": 800.0, + "alimony_expense": 1165.0, + "ssi_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_earned_income": 0.0, + "ssi_in_kind_support_and_maintenance": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_unearned_income_deemed_from_ineligible_parent": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_deemed_from_ineligible_spouse": 0.0, + "ssi_couple_computation_applies": false, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income": 21093.470703125, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit": 22024.80078125, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible": true, + "ssi_countable_resources": 4200.0, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible": true, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid": true, + "is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc": false, + "is_adult_for_medicaid": false, + "immigration_status": "CITIZEN", + "is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible": true, + "medicaid_category": "SENIOR_OR_DISABLED", + "is_medicaid_eligible": true + }, + "not_enrolled": { + "age": 67.0, + "is_ssi_aged": true, + "is_ssi_disabled": false, + "is_blind": false, + "is_ssi_aged_blind_disabled": true, + "is_ssi_recipient_for_medicaid": false, + "is_medicare_eligible": true, + "medicare_enrolled": false, + "medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0, + "social_security": 9445.470703125, + "pension_income": 13608.0, + "taxable_ira_distributions": 800.0, + "alimony_expense": 1165.0, + "ssi_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_unearned_income": 23853.470703125, + "ssi_marital_earned_income": 0.0, + "ssi_in_kind_support_and_maintenance": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_unearned_income_deemed_from_ineligible_parent": 0.0, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_deemed_from_ineligible_spouse": 0.0, + "ssi_couple_computation_applies": false, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income": 21093.470703125, + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_limit": 22024.80078125, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_income_eligible": true, + "ssi_countable_resources": 4200.0, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_asset_eligible": true, + "is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid": true, + "is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc": false, + "is_adult_for_medicaid": false, + "immigration_status": "CITIZEN", + "is_medicaid_immigration_status_eligible": true, + "medicaid_category": "SENIOR_OR_DISABLED", + "is_medicaid_eligible": true + } + } +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/independent_review.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/independent_review.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..02a08e71 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/independent_review.md @@ -0,0 +1,96 @@ +**Verdict: APPROVE WITH NITS.** The engine mechanism is right, and so are the figures, the class counts and the model descriptions. The caveat is that I could not run the tests, the scripts or `git diff`. This session only had read-only file tools (no shell, no Write). I checked those items by reading the code and the committed records instead; the limits are listed at the end. + +## Blocking findings + +None. + +## Should fix (not blocking) + +**1. A third copy of the wrong mechanism sits in tracked code, and the README doesn't mention it.** +- README:43 says the judge's prompt "stated the wrong mechanism twice": the grounding line and the old reference explanation. +- There is a third copy. The judge instructions use it as their example of a good diagnosis, so it appears in every case's prompt (`prompt.md` line 5). It comes from `policybench/audit.py:295-297`: *"never applied the aged/disabled income test, which deducts the Medicare Part B premium from countable income"*. +- `tests/test_audit.py:665-669` repeats it as a passing example. +- I checked the annotations: no other `*_medicaid_eligible` row or case note relies on a Part B deduction. So the published damage is limited to this cell, but future audit stages will keep priming judges with the false rule. +- **Fix:** add it to "Where the old mechanism came from". Either change the example in `audit.py` and `test_audit.py` now (for instance "…which applies the state's income disregard"), or split that change into its own task with a link. + +**2. The README cites a file that doesn't exist.** +- README:83 cites `verification/independent_review.md`, but the file is not at HEAD. +- **Fix:** commit this review as that file, or drop the line. + +**3. claude-sonnet-4.6's subtype doesn't match a near-identical row.** +- claude-sonnet-4.6 is `taxable_income_or_deductions`, but glm-5.3 is `categorical_eligibility`. +- The new sonnet-4.6 text says *"its explanation settled on the expansion test, with gross income of $23,853 against $20,783"*. Its response agrees: *"Given that PolicyEngine typically implements the standard ACA Medi-Cal expansion at 138% FPL and the income exceeds that threshold…"* +- glm-5.3 made the same error (expansion limit, gross income, understated 138%) and is classed `categorical_eligibility`. +- Under the old mechanism, sonnet-4.6's income-counting subtype rested on the missed Part B deduction. Under the corrected mechanism, its main error is choosing the wrong pathway. +- **Fix:** reclassify it to `categorical_eligibility`, making the counts 28/4/3/8; no score changes. Or state in README:62 why it stays. +- gpt-5.5 (tested against a "spend-down standard") is a weaker version of the same question. + +**4. A manifest note is now false for this cell.** +- `manifest.json:24` says developer adjudications are applied before export *"so the published payload and the frozen annotations agree."* +- For this cell they no longer agree until a data release re-exports. README:71 says so; the manifest doesn't. +- **Fix:** add a sentence to the manifest note, or list the divergence somewhere a release driver checks. + +## Nits + +- **"Holds only if the disregard is skipped" overstates** (rows gemini-3.7-flash, gpt-5.6-luna, gpt-5.6-sol). Against the engine's limit, income stays over with any monthly disregard below about $152.39, SSI's $20 included. Two of these models also named no threshold. Suggested wording: "holds against the engine's limit only if the $230 disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20." +- **gemini-3.5-flash:** "*elsewhere it cited gross income of $23,853*". That figure isn't in this output's explanation (*"The head's monthly income exceeds the 138% Federal Poverty Level threshold…"*). It presumably comes from another output in `raw_response`, which I could not read. Name the source ("in its SNAP explanation"), or drop the clause. +- **deepseek-v4-pro:** "about $1,757.79" puts "about" before an exact figure. +- **claude-fable-5:** "applied no disregard … and said even SSI-style disregards would leave it over" reads as self-contradictory. Try: "assumed no specific disregard, saying even SSI-style disregards would leave it over." +- **Reference explanation:** "within the limit of 138% of the 2026 federal poverty guideline for one person, $22,024.80" reads as if the guideline itself is $22,024.80. Try: "within the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline for one person)." +- **Case note:** "or missed that age alone gives the head a category" also covers glm-5.2 and grok-4.3. Those two ruled the head out on Medicare grounds, so "or treated Medicare eligibility or the lack of SSI or disability as disqualifying" is more accurate. +- **README:17 is incomplete.** `is_medicaid_eligible` also ANDs the federal and Arkansas work-requirement gates, and ORs in `ca_ffyp_eligible` and `il_hbi_eligible` (`is_medicaid_eligible.py:46-54`). Neither changes anything for this head: the work requirement applies only to the ADULT and 1115 categories. Add "(plus work-requirement gates that don't apply here)". +- **README:62:** "compared income with no exclusion or disregard with the limit" uses "with" twice. Try: "compared income, with no exclusion or disregard, against the limit." +- **`engine_values.py`** never records `immigration_status`, so the "default CITIZEN" claim isn't backed by the record. The code supports it: `immigration_status_str.default_value = CITIZEN`, which feeds `immigration_status`. Add it to `PERSON_VARIABLES`. +- **`payload_diff.py:126`** checks `{p[1] for p in reproduction}` without first checking `p[0] == "modelStats"`. A difference in another section whose index happened to equal claude-fable-5's would pass unnoticed. Assert `p[0] == "modelStats"` too. +- **The test doesn't pin subtypes.** `test_rewritten_rows_keep_their_classes` checks `failure_source` and `reference_suspect` but not `failure_subtype`, which the README says is unchanged. Pin the 29/4/3/7 tally, or the per-row subtype. +- **`KEYS`/`FIELDS` are duplicated** between `apply_rewrites.py` and the test. This is minor drift risk. +- **The release drivers don't re-apply the ledger.** The next release that rebuilds annotations from stage verdicts will fail the test until someone runs `apply_rewrites.py` by hand. That is acceptable as a tripwire, but a one-line note in the release driver or its docs would help. + +## What I checked and found correct + +**Engine (policyengine-us 2.15.17 source):** +- **The $230 replaces the $20; it is not added.** `_apply_ssi_exclusions.py:26`: `general_exclusion = p.general if general_exclusion is None else general_exclusion`. `_apply_medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_exclusions.py:73-79` passes `general_exclusion=income_disregard` for every state except CT and MO. +- **Disregard:** CA = 230 per month (`disregard/individual.yaml:26-27`). +- **Income limit and test:** CA = 1.38 from 2021 (`limit/individual.yaml:29-31`), applied as `limit_pct * unit_fpg`. The test is `income <= income_limit`, so "at or under" is right. +- **Asset test:** CA = 130,000 from 2026-01-01, tested as `assets < asset_limit`, so "below" is right. +- **Countable income formula:** it adds `ssi_marital_unearned_income`, income deemed from an ineligible parent, and ISM. Spousal deeming is added after the disregard. All of this matches README:19-24. +- **Category:** `is_optional_senior_or_disabled_for_medicaid` is aged/blind/disabled AND income AND assets. `is_ssi_aged` is `age >= aged_threshold`, which is 65. +- **Medicare bar:** `is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc` is `age_eligible & ~medicare_eligible & ~ssi_excluded`. `medicaid_work_requirement_eligible` uses Medicare as an exemption. I spot-checked the parent, young-adult, pregnant, medically-needy, SSI-recipient and immigration formulas plus the buy-in and 1115 categories: none reads `is_medicare_eligible`. I could not grep the whole directory (the venv's `.gitignore` hides it from ripgrep). +- **Immigration default:** CITIZEN, via `immigration_status_str`. + +**Arithmetic:** +- $23,853.47 − $2,760 = $21,093.47. +- 1.38 × $15,960 = $22,024.80, or $1,835.40 a month. +- Margin under the limit: $931.33. Gross over the limit: $1,828.67. Gross less only the $20 exclusion: $23,613.47. +- Gross is about 149% of the 2026 guideline. +- 1.38 × $15,650 = $21,597 (the 2025 figure). +- 1.38 × $15,060 = $20,783 (sonnet-4.6's figure). + +All of these agree with the committed `engine_values.json`. + +**Model descriptions:** I checked all 43, not just a sample, against each model's explanation as embedded in the stage judge prompt (`results/local/gpt61sol-stage/.../us__scenario_031__head_medicaid_eligible/prompt.md:76-203`). Every quote and figure matches, apart from the gemini-3.5-flash clause above. Examples: +- claude-fable-5: ~$1,890 a month, ~$1,800 limit. +- glm-5.3: "~199% FPL", ~$1,600. +- qwen-3.7-max: "typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits". +- claude-opus-4.8: "well below the threshold. Wait—…100% FPL". + +**Classes:** +- All 43 rows are `llm_error` with `reference_suspect=False`. +- The subtype counts are 29/4/3/7, matching the README. +- The README's 17/2/2/8 split of the 29 checks out row by row. +- `rewrites.json` carries only text fields, and the test enforces that. + +**Tooling:** +- `apply_rewrites.py` refuses a missing or non-unique key, refuses a text that is neither old nor new, and requires a byte-for-byte CSV and manifest round-trip. +- `--check` writes nothing and fails on stale hashes. +- The manifest pins the three files under `audit_annotation_artifacts.files`. +- `payload_diff.json` shows only the scenario_031 cell's three text fields changing (43 + 43 + 46 paths). The base rebuild matches the frozen `data.json.gz` except four carried claude-fable-5 usage fields. That is good evidence that no score changes, and `paper_results.py` reads only classes from these files. + +## Not verified: rerun before merge + +I could not execute anything, so these are still open: +- the pytest command and `apply_rewrites.py --check`; +- the `engine_values.py` rerun and the `git diff` of its output; +- `git diff origin/main` (that only the 45 fields and 3 hashes changed, and the frozen run dir is untouched); +- `raw_response` in `predictions.csv.gz`, which is gzipped. I read model behaviour from the explanation text in the judge prompt instead. +- the README:62 corpus tally ("97 rows… one `state_local_rule`"). \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/payload_diff.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/payload_diff.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9823a1e7 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/payload_diff.json @@ -0,0 +1,46 @@ +{ + "note": "Payload rebuilt from the frozen run by export_country with the base's annotation files and with the working tree's. 'changed' lists every path that differs between the two rebuilds. 'base_vs_frozen' lists every path where the base rebuild differs from the frozen data.json.gz: claude-fable-5's usage, which the release drivers carry from the published payload (CARRIED_USAGE in scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py) because export cannot recompute it.", + "base": "origin/main", + "changed_sections": [ + "scenarioPredictions" + ], + "changed_cells": [ + [ + "scenario_031", + "head_medicaid_eligible" + ] + ], + "changed_fields": [ + "annotation", + "caseAnnotation", + "referenceExplanation" + ], + "changed_paths": 132, + "changed_by_field": { + "annotation": 43, + "caseAnnotation": 43, + "referenceExplanation": 46 + }, + "base_vs_frozen": [ + [ + "modelStats", + "claude-fable-5", + "costPerHousehold" + ], + [ + "modelStats", + "claude-fable-5", + "costUsd" + ], + [ + "modelStats", + "claude-fable-5", + "latencySeconds" + ], + [ + "modelStats", + "claude-fable-5", + "totalTokens" + ] + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/row_review.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/row_review.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fbd6bd08 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/verification/row_review.json @@ -0,0 +1,646 @@ +{ + "note": "Review record for the rewritten row annotations. Each model's row was drafted, then checked by a separate agent that read the model's frozen response (predictions.csv.gz raw_response and explanation) and the engine fact sheet, quoted the response words each claim rests on, and corrected the draft. A final critic checked consistency across rows and against the case note. The final text of each row is in ../rewrites.json; it differs from 'checked_text' only by the edits listed in 'post_review_edits'.", + "post_review_edits": [ + "Inserted '(,760 a year)' after ' monthly disregard' in 21 rows that subtracted the monthly disregard from an annual figure (critic), and merged the resulting double parentheses.", + "grok-build-0.1: 'aged Medi-Cal' -> 'aged Medicaid'; gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview: 'the Medi-Cal limit' -> 'the Medicaid limit'.", + "glm-5.2 and grok-4.3: 'The engine has no Medicare exclusion' -> 'In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group' (in variables/gov/hhs/medicaid, is_adult_for_medicaid_nfc is the only formula that bars on is_medicare_eligible; medicaid_work_requirement_eligible reads it as an exemption).", + "After the independent review (verification/independent_review.md): gemini-3.7-flash, gpt-5.6-luna and gpt-5.6-sol now say income is over the limit only if the disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20; gemini-3.5-flash names its federal tax and SNAP answers as the source of $23,853 and drops 'about' before exact figures; deepseek-v4-pro drops 'about'; claude-fable-5 is reworded ('assumed no specific disregard')." + ], + "tally": { + "total": 43, + "buckets": [ + { + "bucket": "gross income vs the limit (stated gross or total income, no exclusion or disregard)", + "count": 17, + "models": [ + "claude-fable-5 (gross less alimony)", + "claude-haiku-4.5", + "claude-opus-5", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "gemini-3.8-flash", + "gpt-5.5", + "grok-4.6", + "minimax-m3", + "qwen-3.7-max" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "only SSI's $20 exclusion", + "count": 2, + "models": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "grok-4.7" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "a general income exclusion of unstated size (most likely SSI's $20)", + "count": 2, + "models": [ + "gpt-6-astra", + "gpt-6.1-sol" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "wrong threshold", + "count": 4, + "models": [ + "claude-opus-4.8 (100%, $15,650)", + "inkling (100%, $15,650)", + "claude-sonnet-5 (SSI income limit, $13,596)", + "gpt-5.6-terra (SSI-linked income level)" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "asset error", + "count": 3, + "models": [ + "grok-build-0.1 ($2,000 SSI limit, only reason)", + "ox-alpha ($2,000 SSI limit, plus gross income)", + "grok-4.5 (unstated resource limit, plus gross income)" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "category error (Medicare bar, required disability/blindness/SSI, no category, or adult group only)", + "count": 7, + "models": [ + "glm-5.2 (Medicare bars Medicaid)", + "grok-4.3 (dual eligibles excluded)", + "kimi-k2.6 (not disabled, blind or SSI)", + "qwen3.8-max (not disabled, blind or in a category)", + "gpt-5.4-nano (no disability or low-income flag)", + "claude-sonnet-5.5 (no categorical group, plus gross $23.9k)", + "glm-5.3 (adult expansion test only)" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "no derivation (no income figure; asserted income too high)", + "count": 8, + "models": [ + "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "gemini-3.5-flash", + "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "gemini-3.7-flash", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-sol", + "kimi-k3" + ] + }, + { + "bucket": "other", + "count": 0, + "models": [] + } + ], + "subtype_crosscheck": "Income-counting buckets 17 + 2 + 2 + 8 = 29, which equals the 29 taxable_income_or_deductions rows. Threshold 4 = thresholds_rates 4, asset 3 = asset_resource 3, category 7 = categorical_eligibility 7. Total 43. So 'most models went wrong on countable income' holds (29 of 43).", + "secondary_errors": "These rows also compared gross income with a limit outside their primary bucket: claude-opus-4.8, inkling, claude-sonnet-5.5, grok-4.5, ox-alpha, glm-5.3. Counting them, 23 rows stated or used gross income, and 25 with the two $20-only rows. Each of these understated limits would also have produced 0 against the engine's $21,093.47: claude-haiku-4.5 ($18,564), deepseek-v4-pro ($1,732 a month), claude-sonnet-4.6 ($20,783), glm-5.3 ($1,600 a month). Alimony was subtracted by claude-fable-5 and claude-haiku-4.5. Assets were also doubted by claude-haiku-4.5.", + "boundary_calls": "gemini-3.8-flash is in the gross bucket because it said 'total income', though it gave no figure. gemini-3.5-flash is in no derivation because it named 138% FPL but gave no income figure. minimax-m3 is in the gross bucket because it guessed about $24k against an unstated limit. claude-sonnet-5.5 and qwen-3.7-max both gave gross figures and a category reason; they are split by their subtypes.", + "parser_contingency": "claude-opus-4.8 and claude-sonnet-4.6 submitted a structured value of 1 (verified in raw_response this session). If they are rescored as correct, the total is 41: gross 16 and threshold 3. The corrected closing summary still holds unchanged (28 of 41 income-counting)." + }, + "rows": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "raw_response is null; the check rests on the stored explanation alone.", + "The draft's 'but it subtracted the $1,165 of alimony' presents the alimony subtraction as the error that pushed income over the limit. That subtraction lowered income, which helped the model. The deciding error was that it applied no disregard: $22,688 / 12 = $1,890.67, so no exclusion was taken. Even its own $1,890 less California's $230 would be about $1,660, under its $1,800. The rewrite now names the missing disregard as the error and keeps alimony as a side note.", + "'Said SSI-style disregards would not change the result' is tightened to the model's actual claim ('even with SSI-style disregards ... exceeds'). Engine figures checked: $1,987.79, $1,757.79 and $1,835.40 are correct, and monthly figures fit because the model worked monthly." + ], + "evidence": "\"less alimony expense adjustment $1,165 gives MAGI-style income ~$22,688; even with SSI-style disregards, monthly income (~$1,890) exceeds the 138% FPL limit for one person (~$1,800/month in 2026)\"; \"eligibility would come via the aged/senior pathway (ACA MAGI expansion covers only ages 19-64)\"", + "checked_text": "It took the aged pathway and a 138% limit of about $1,800 a month but applied no disregard: it subtracted the $1,165 of alimony, put income at about $1,890 a month, and said even SSI-style disregards would leave it over. The engine does not subtract alimony; it takes $1,987.79 a month less California's $230 disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It took the aged pathway and a 138% limit of about $1,800 a month, subtracted the $1,165 of alimony to put income at about $1,890 a month, and assumed no specific disregard, saying even SSI-style disregards would leave it over. The engine does not subtract alimony; it takes $1,987.79 a month less California's $230 disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The income count decided the case: with $1,757.79 it would pass even its own $1,800 limit." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "None found. The $240 exclusion, $23,613, the aged pathway and the ~$21,600 limit all match the explanation. Arithmetic checks out: $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47, which is under $22,024.80. The text states that the disregard replaces the $20 exclusion. Minor: the exclusion is called '$240 annual' and then 'that $20 exclusion'. The two are consistent ($20 a month) and need no change." + ], + "evidence": "\"under the CA aged/disabled pathway, countable income of about $23,613/year (23,853 minus $240 exclusion) exceeds the 138% FPL limit (~$21,600), so not eligible for Medi-Cal\"", + "checked_text": "It used the aged pathway but applied only SSI's $240 annual general exclusion, putting countable income at $23,613 against a 138% limit of about $21,600. California's $230 monthly disregard takes the place of that $20 exclusion, so the engine counts $23,853.47 less $2,760, or $21,093.47, which is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It used the aged pathway but applied only SSI's $240 annual general exclusion, putting countable income at $23,613 against a 138% limit of about $21,600. California's $230 monthly disregard takes the place of that $20 exclusion, so the engine counts $23,853.47 less $2,760, or $21,093.47, which is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Missing the CA disregard decided the case: $21,093.47 passes even its $21,600 limit." + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "'Compared income of $23,853, with or without the $1,165 of alimony' is muddled, since $23,853 less alimony is $22,688. Reworded to say it tested gross $23,853 and that amount less alimony.", + "Added 'gross' so the text shows that no exclusion or disregard was applied, which matches the response.", + "The engine statements are correct: alimony is not subtracted, $21,093.47 < $22,024.80, and the $130,000 asset limit is right. The asset doubt is quoted accurately." + ], + "evidence": "\"approximately 138% of federal poverty line (around $1,547/month or ~$18,564 annually). Head's total income of $23,853 exceeds this threshold. Additionally, after accounting for deductible items (alimony expense of $1,165), countable income remains above the limit. With bank account assets of $4,200, which may exceed resource limits\"", + "checked_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853, and that amount less the $1,165 of alimony, against a 138% limit it understated at about $18,564, and doubted the $4,200 in assets. The engine subtracts no alimony: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The $4,200 is far under California's $130,000 asset limit.", + "final_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853, and that amount less the $1,165 of alimony, against a 138% limit it understated at about $18,564, and doubted the $4,200 in assets. The engine subtracts no alimony: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The $4,200 is far under California's $130,000 asset limit.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Gross income and the understated limit each force 0 on their own, so the income-count subtype is not clearly wrong and follows corpus practice." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "'Concluded the head was ineligible' overstates what the model submitted. The structured value in its Medicaid tool call is 1, and only the explanation trailer says 0. Reworded to 'its explanation concluded'.", + "PARSER FLAG CONFIRMED THIS SESSION: running policybench.reparse_predictions.parse_serialized_response (repo at c7aaffe9) on this raw_response returns head_medicaid_eligible = 1.0 and logs 'Structured value disagrees with explanation trailer ... keeping structured value'. The recorded prediction is 0. Under the current parser the row would score as correct and would not be an llm_error row. The orchestrator must decide before this annotation ships.", + "The engine figures check out: 138% of the 2026 guideline is $22,024.80, and $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47. $15,650 is the 2025 guideline, per the fact sheet." + ], + "evidence": "Tool call {\"value\": 1, ...}: \"Countable income: Social Security $9,445 + IRA $800 + pension $13,608 = $23,853, well below the threshold. Wait—MAGI for aged/disabled in PolicyEngine uses 100% FPL-based limits for a single person (~$15,650), so $23,853 exceeds it. value = 0\"", + "checked_text": "It first called gross income of $23,853 well below the threshold, then switched to a MAGI-based 100% limit of about $15,650 (the 2025 guideline), and its explanation concluded the head was ineligible. The engine's senior pathway uses SSI income rules and 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80; it counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It first called gross income of $23,853 well below the threshold, then switched to a MAGI-based 100% limit of about $15,650 (the 2025 guideline), and its explanation concluded the head was ineligible. The engine's senior pathway uses SSI income rules and 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80; it counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "thresholds_rates", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The switch to a 100% limit would fail even the engine's $21,093.47, so the threshold is decisive. The row may not be a scored error at all (see the parser flag)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "None found. Gross $23,853, the 100% to 138% range and $15,650 to $21,600 all match the explanation. Both figures are 2025-guideline numbers: $15,650 at 100% and $21,597 at 138%. The engine path and arithmetic are correct, and nothing about premiums remains." + ], + "evidence": "\"Annual countable income ~$23,853 (including Social Security) is above the aged/ABD Medi-Cal limit (~100-138% FPL for one person, roughly $15,650-$21,600), so not eligible.\"", + "checked_text": "It tested gross income of $23,853 against an aged limit it gave as 100% to 138% of the poverty line, about $15,650 to $21,600 (2025-guideline figures), and found it over. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It tested gross income of $23,853 against an aged limit it gave as 100% to 138% of the poverty line, about $15,650 to $21,600 (2025-guideline figures), and found it over. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The deciding error was gross income with no disregard." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "None found. The 138% aged limit, about $21,600 (138% of the 2025 guideline is $21,597), and gross $23,853 match the explanation. The engine figures are correct, and the text does not fault its 138% rate." + ], + "evidence": "\"Annual income of $23,853 exceeds the aged Medi-Cal limit of 138% FPL (about $21,600), so not eligible.\"", + "checked_text": "It used the 138% aged limit, at about $21,600 (the 2025-guideline figure), but compared it with gross income of $23,853. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under its $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It used the 138% aged limit, at about $21,600 (the 2025-guideline figure), but compared it with gross income of $23,853. The engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under its $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The only deciding error was gross income with no disregard: $21,093.47 passes even its $21,600 limit." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft says it 'settled on gross income of $23,853 against $20,783' but does not say which test it settled on. Its final reasoning used the ACA expansion test at 138%. The rewrite says so.", + "The structured value in its Medicaid tool call is 1, and only the explanation trailer says 0. Reworded to 'its explanation settled'.", + "PARSER FLAG CONFIRMED THIS SESSION: parse_serialized_response (policybench c7aaffe9) on this raw_response returns 1.0 and keeps the structured value. The recorded prediction is 0. Under the current parser the row would score as correct, so the orchestrator must decide before this ships.", + "Arithmetic checked: 1.38 x $15,060 = $20,782.80 (about $20,783), and $15,060 is below the 2026 guideline of $15,960. The engine figures are correct." + ], + "evidence": "Tool call {\"value\": 1, ...}: \"138% FPL for a single individual is approximately $20,783/year\"; \"Aged & Disabled Federal Poverty Level (A&D FPL) program, seniors 65+ with income up to 100% FPL (~$15,060 for 2026)\"; \"Given that PolicyEngine typically implements the standard ACA Medi-Cal expansion at 138% FPL and the income exceeds that threshold, the Head is not eligible. value = 0\"", + "checked_text": "It moved between the adult expansion test, which excludes someone aged 67, and a 100% aged limit of $15,060; its explanation settled on the expansion test, with gross income of $23,853 against $20,783, which is 138% of its understated $15,060 guideline. The engine's senior pathway counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It moved between the adult expansion test, which excludes someone aged 67, and a 100% aged limit of $15,060; its explanation settled on the expansion test, with gross income of $23,853 against $20,783, which is 138% of its understated $15,060 guideline. The engine's senior pathway counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Gross income with no disregard fails even the correct limit, so the income count was a necessary error. The pathway confusion does not change the 138% rate. The row may not be a scored error at all (see the parser flag)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "None found. $14,408 (pension plus IRA), the claim that 138% applies only to expansion adults, the cited $21,597, and the binding $13,596 SSI limit all match the response and its order. It correctly said assets were under the limit, and the text does not fault that. The engine claims are correct: Social Security counts in full, and $21,093.47 < $22,024.80." + ], + "evidence": "\"Social Security ($9,445, mostly excluded) ... totaling roughly $14,408\"; \"about 138% FPL is only for MAGI expansion adults under 65\"; \"Aged & Disabled Federal Poverty Level program limit is about 138% FPL (~$21,597 for single in 2026)\"; \"this exceeds the SSI income limit (~$1,133/month = $13,596/year)\"", + "checked_text": "It excluded most Social Security to get $14,408, said 138% applied only to expansion adults under 65, cited a 138% aged limit of about $21,597 that $14,408 would pass, then used an SSI limit of about $13,596 as binding. The engine counts Social Security in full and uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard gives $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It excluded most Social Security to get $14,408, said 138% applied only to expansion adults under 65, cited a 138% aged limit of about $21,597 that $14,408 would pass, then used an SSI limit of about $13,596 as binding. The engine counts Social Security in full and uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) gives $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "thresholds_rates", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its income error ran in its favor, so the binding $13,596 SSI limit is what produced 0." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "'By itself meets the engine's senior-or-disabled category' is imprecise. In the engine the category also requires the income and asset tests, and age alone meets only its aged-blind-disabled condition. Reworded to 'meets the category condition of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway'.", + "Added 'with no disregard' so the income error is stated directly. $23.9k is the gross sum, so no exclusion was applied.", + "The engine figures and arithmetic are correct, and the text does not fault its 138% rate or its inclusion of Social Security." + ], + "evidence": "\"Not eligible: countable income of about $23.9k including Social Security exceeds 138% FPL, and Head is not in a categorical group.\"", + "checked_text": "It said the head was in no categorical group and that countable income of about $23.9k, including Social Security and with no disregard, exceeded 138% FPL. At 67 the head is aged, which alone meets the category condition of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and the engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It said the head was in no categorical group and that countable income of about $23.9k, including Social Security and with no disregard, exceeded 138% FPL. At 67 the head is aged, which alone meets the category condition of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and the engine counts $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which replaces SSI's $20 exclusion, for $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Both stated reasons force 0 on their own. The categorical denial is the more basic error, so the current subtype is not clearly wrong." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The old annotation's Part B and premium mechanism and its figure of about $21,400 are gone.", + "Every model claim is supported: gross $23,853 compared with 138% FPL, no dollar limit stated, no exclusion in the Medicaid row (its SSI row did subtract $20).", + "Engine figures match the fact sheet: $2,760 disregard replacing SSI's $20 exclusion, $21,093.47 countable income, $22,024.80 limit at 138% of the 2026 guideline." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"Head is 67 (Medicare-age) with income of about $23,853/year, exceeding the relevant income limits for aged Medicaid eligibility (over 138% FPL)\". SSI row: \"about $1,968 after the $20 general exclusion\".", + "checked_text": "It compared gross income of about $23,853 with 138% FPL and concluded the head was over the limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It compared gross income of about $23,853 with 138% FPL and concluded the head was over the limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its 138% FPL limit was the right one, so the deciding error is counting gross income without California's disregard. That is the corpus's income-counting subtype." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The Part B mechanism and the old figures ($1,785 a month income, about $1,800 limit) are gone.", + "Arithmetic checks out: $1,987.75 - $230 = $1,757.75 on the model's figure ($1,757.79 on the engine's). That is under the $1,835.40 limit but above the model's $1,732, so both errors were needed for its 0. The annotation says so." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"income of $1,987.75/month exceeds CA Aged & Disabled FPL income limit of 138% FPL ($1,732/month estimated)\". SSI row: \"Countable unearned income $1,967.75/month ($1,987.75 - $20)\".", + "checked_text": "It tested gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL limit of $1,732. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves about $1,757.79, under the actual limit of $1,835.40 a month (138% of the 2026 guideline). Both errors mattered: income after the disregard still tops the model's $1,732 figure.", + "final_text": "It tested gross monthly income of $1,987.75 against an understated 138% FPL limit of $1,732. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79, under the actual limit of $1,835.40 a month (138% of the 2026 guideline). Both errors mattered: income after the disregard still tops the model's $1,732 figure.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Two errors were each necessary: the missed disregard and the understated limit. Income counting matches corpus practice and is not clearly wrong; thresholds_rates would be the secondary label." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The Part B mechanism is gone, and so is the unsupported claim that it required SSI receipt.", + "It did call its $23,853 countable income and named an FPL-based senior limit with no dollar figure, which the rewrite says. Its remark of no SSI categorical eligibility is true in the engine (the head is not an SSI recipient), so the rewrite rightly does not fault it." + ], + "evidence": "Scored response: \"Annual countable income of about $23,853 exceeds California's applicable Medi-Cal FPL-based income limit for this senior single-person household and there is no SSI categorical eligibility\". Other response: \"income of $23,853 exceeds the Medi-Cal aged/disabled eligibility threshold\".", + "checked_text": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and found it over California's FPL-based limit for a senior, without stating the limit. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable income and found it over California's FPL-based limit for a senior, without stating the limit. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The deciding error is counting gross income without the disregard. Its SSI remark was accurate and did not decide its answer." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The false claim that the count requires a Part B deduction, and the $21,400 figure, are gone.", + "Its $22,218 limit (138% of $16,100) is slightly above the engine's $22,024.80. $21,093.47 is under both, so the missed disregard decides the case, as the rewrite says." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"Annual income of $23,853 exceeds California's aged/blind/disabled Medicaid income limit of 138% FPL ($22,218 for a single person in 2026)\".", + "checked_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218, slightly above the engine's $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under either figure.", + "final_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with its own 138% FPL figure of $22,218, slightly above the engine's $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline). The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under either figure.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The deciding error is the missed disregard. Its slightly high limit would not have changed the answer." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The Part B mechanism and the unquoted program label \"Aged & Disabled\" are gone.", + "Its about $22,080 limit is 138% of $16,000, close to the engine's $22,024.80. It tested gross $23,853 against it with no exclusion, which the rewrite says." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"Medi-Cal for the Aged and Disabled generally uses a 138% FPL income limit. Head's annual income of $23,853 exceeds 138% of the projected FPL for 2026 (approximately $22,080 for a household of one)\".", + "checked_text": "It used a 138% FPL limit of about $22,080, close to the engine's $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline), but tested gross income of $23,853 against it. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It used a 138% FPL limit of about $22,080, close to the engine's $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 guideline), but tested gross income of $23,853 against it. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its threshold was essentially right, so the deciding error is counting gross income without the disregard." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft's \"senior-or-disabled pathway, which age 67 meets\" overstated the engine. Age meets only the pathway's aged test; the pathway also has income and asset tests. Reworded to say the head meets the aged test, which needs no SSI or disability.", + "The model framed the limit as one \"for a single adult\", not a senior limit. That is now quoted as its own words.", + "The rest is correct: the Medicaid row gives no figures or pathway, and the Part B mechanism and the old unsupported \"gross income of $23,853 with an FPL limit\" claim are gone." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"The household income exceeds the California Medicaid (Medi-Cal) income limit for a single adult.\" Federal tax row: \"total gross income of $23,853\".", + "checked_text": "It gave no figures or pathway, saying only that household income exceeded the Medi-Cal limit \"for a single adult.\" At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard (in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It gave no figures or pathway, saying only that household income exceeded the Medicaid limit \"for a single adult.\" At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its only stated reason was income over the limit. The response does not clearly show a category or threshold error, so the current subtype is not clearly wrong." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "Rewrite checked and correct, so no change needed. The premium and Part B mechanism and the unquoted \"Aged & Disabled\" label are gone.", + "It named 138% FPL but no dollar limit, and used gross $23,853 (its SSI row subtracted $240, its Medicaid row did not). The rewrite says this accurately and does not fault its pathway or percentage." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"The head's income of $23,853 is above the 138% Federal Poverty Level threshold for California's Aged, Blind, and Disabled Medi-Cal program.\" SSI row: \"$23,853 total minus the $240 annual exclusion\".", + "checked_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL, without stating the dollar limit, and found it over. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It compared gross income of $23,853 with 138% FPL, without stating the dollar limit, and found it over. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. It had the right pathway and percentage, so the deciding error is counting gross income without the disregard." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft's \"consistent with the gross $23,853 it cited elsewhere\" was a hedged inference. It now states the facts: the Medicaid row gave no figures, and it cited gross income of $23,853 in its other rows.", + "The model's phrase is \"free non-MAGI Medi-Cal\"; the full quote replaces the shortened one.", + "The rest is correct: the 138% FPL limit matches the engine, and the monthly figures check out ($1,987.79 - $230 = $1,757.79, under $1,835.40). The Part B mechanism is gone." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"The head's monthly income exceeds the 138% Federal Poverty Level threshold for free non-MAGI Medi-Cal (Medicaid) in California.\" Federal tax row: \"The head's gross income of $23,853\"; SNAP row: \"With a gross income of $23,853\".", + "checked_text": "It correctly picked the 138% FPL limit for what it called \"free non-MAGI Medi-Cal\" but gave no figures, saying only that the head's monthly income was over it; elsewhere it cited gross income of $23,853. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from about $1,987.79 a month, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves about $1,757.79 a month, under the $1,835.40 monthly limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly picked the 138% FPL limit for what it called \"free non-MAGI Medi-Cal\" but gave no figures, saying only that the head's monthly income was over it; in the same response it put gross income at $23,853 for its federal tax and SNAP answers. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from $1,987.79 a month, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $1,757.79 a month, under the $1,835.40 monthly limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its pathway and threshold were right, so the deciding error is the income count without the disregard." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft's \"Age 67 qualifies the head for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway\" overstated the engine. Age meets only the aged test; income and asset tests also apply. Reworded to the aged test, which needs no SSI or disability.", + "The rest is correct: no figures, threshold or pathway, only age and income cited. The Part B mechanism, the claim that it skipped a premium deduction, and the unsupported mention of assets are gone." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid row: \"Based on the head's age and income, Medicaid eligibility is not met under California rules for this household structure.\" SSI row: \"The head's Social Security and pension income exceed the SSI income limit\".", + "checked_text": "It gave no figures, threshold or pathway, citing only the head's age and income. At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard (in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) is $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It gave no figures, threshold or pathway, citing only the head's age and income. At 67 the head meets the aged test of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, which needs no SSI or disability. Income of $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) is $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. It cited age and income without detail and showed no clear category error. Income counting is this case's deciding step and the corpus default, so the current subtype is not clearly wrong." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"The head's annual income of $23,853 exceeds the eligibility threshold for CA Medicaid (Medi-Cal) for an individual aged 65 or older.\" (one sentence only; no figure given for the threshold, no exclusion or disregard)", + "checked_text": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable and said it exceeded an unstated threshold for people 65 or older. Gross income is $1,828.67 over the limit, but the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It treated the full $23,853 as countable and said it exceeded an unstated threshold for people 65 or older. Gross income is $1,828.67 over the limit, but the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. It chose the aged group correctly, and its decisive error was counting gross income with no disregard, which this corpus records as taxable_income_or_deductions." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"Head's income exceeds the non-MAGI Medi-Cal income limits for an elderly individual.\" (no income figure, exclusion or limit anywhere in raw_response)", + "checked_text": "It placed the head in what it called the \"non-MAGI\" elderly pathway but gave no income figure or limit, and it judged income too high, which holds only if California's disregard is skipped. In the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It placed the head in what it called the \"non-MAGI\" elderly pathway but gave no income figure or limit, and it judged income too high, which holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. In the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The pathway was right, so the 0 comes from counting income without California's disregard, an income-counting error." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft says gross income is \"about 149% of the guideline\" without naming the year. 149% holds only for the 2026 guideline ($23,853.47 / $15,960). Against the 2025 guideline it is about 152%, so the year is needed.", + "The draft only implies the decisive error, testing total income with no disregard. The fix states it outright: the model said \"total income\", which supports it." + ], + "evidence": "\"Head has total income well exceeding California Medi-Cal eligibility limits (138% FPL) for an individual, so Head is not eligible\" (no dollar figures; the 138% FPL threshold is correct)", + "checked_text": "It tested total income against a 138% FPL limit with no disregard and called it \"well\" over, but $23,853.47 is about 149% of the 2026 guideline, only $1,828.67 over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It tested total income against a 138% FPL limit with no disregard and called it \"well\" over, but $23,853.47 is about 149% of the 2026 guideline, only $1,828.67 over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its 138% threshold was right, and its decisive error was testing gross income without California's disregard, an income-counting error." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"Under PolicyEngine rules, individuals aged 65 and older are generally assumed to be eligible for Medicare, which precludes standalone Medicaid eligibility. The head is 67 years old, so they are not eligible for Medicaid.\" (no income or asset figures in the Medicaid output; the $2,000 resource limit appears only in its SSI chunk)", + "checked_text": "It assumed that Medicare eligibility at 65 or older bars Medicaid and ran no income test. The engine has no Medicare exclusion, and age 67 alone meets the aged test for its senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It assumed that Medicare eligibility at 65 or older bars Medicaid and ran no income test. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group, and age 67 alone meets the aged test for the senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its decisive error was a false categorical bar: it treated Medicare eligibility as ruling out Medicaid, so it never reached the income test." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"Age 67 alone qualifies for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway\" overstates the rule. Age meets only the aged test; the pathway also has income and asset tests. Changed to \"meets the aged test for\".", + "The draft says \"about 149% of the guideline\" without the year. The figure is right only for the 2026 guideline ($1,987.79 / $1,330); against 2025 it is about 152%.", + "The draft ran to about 78 words, over the style range, so it was tightened to two sentences." + ], + "evidence": "\"Household income of ~$1,988/month (~199% FPL) exceeds California's Medicaid expansion limit of 138% FPL (~$1,600/month) for a single adult; at 67 the head is also beyond CHIP scope.\" Its SNAP output gives the same gross figure: \"~$23,853/12 = ~$1,988, counting Social Security, pension, and IRA distributions\"", + "checked_text": "It applied the adult expansion limit, which excludes anyone over 64, comparing gross income of about $1,988 a month (about 149% of the 2026 guideline, not the 199% it stated) with an understated limit of about $1,600. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $1,987.79 less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It applied the adult expansion limit, which excludes anyone over 64, comparing gross income of about $1,988 a month (about 149% of the 2026 guideline, not the 199% it stated) with an understated limit of about $1,600. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $1,987.79 less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $1,757.79, under the $1,835.40 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its decisive error was testing the head under the adult expansion group, which excludes him by age, instead of the senior-or-disabled pathway. Its ratio and limit mistakes are secondary." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"without computing either test\" is unclear: it does not say which two tests are meant. The response gives no Medicaid income figure or limit, so the fix says it compared no income figure with a limit." + ], + "evidence": "\"With substantial retirement income (Social Security plus taxable pension/IRA distributions) and no other disability/low-income qualifying flags provided, Head is estimated not eligible for Medicaid under PolicyEngine rules here.\" (no figures, limit or pathway in the Medicaid output)", + "checked_text": "It denied eligibility because no disability or low-income flag was listed and income was \"substantial\", without comparing any income figure with a limit. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It denied eligibility because no disability or low-income flag was listed and income was \"substantial\", without comparing any income figure with a limit. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway. There, $23,853.47 of income less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "Kept. Its stated reason was a missing disability or low-income qualifying flag, so it missed that age alone meets the aged test. Its income judgment has no numbers behind it." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"The engine needs no spend-down\" is not on the fact sheet. Whether the engine models a spend-down at all was not checked, so the sentence was removed.", + "\"reasoning that minimal medical expenses could not bring it down\" goes slightly beyond the text. It was replaced with a closer paraphrase of \"only minimal listed medical expenses\", and the model's own word \"spend-down\" is now in quotation marks." + ], + "evidence": "\"The Head is age 67, so ACA adult Medicaid does not apply; with annual retirement, IRA, and pension income of $23,853 and only minimal listed medical expenses, the Head is above the relevant California aged Medi-Cal income/spend-down standard\" (no threshold figure; the response has only this one chunk)", + "checked_text": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at age 67 but tested the full $23,853 against an unstated aged income or \"spend-down\" standard, with only minimal medical expenses to offset it. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway instead subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at age 67 but tested the full $23,853 against an unstated aged income or \"spend-down\" standard, with only minimal medical expenses to offset it. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway instead subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion. That leaves $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. It ruled out the adult group correctly, and its decisive error was counting gross income without California's disregard, an income-counting error." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"senior-or-disabled pathway, which age 67 alone meets\" overstates the rule. Age meets only the aged test; the pathway also needs the income and asset tests. Changed to \"Age 67 alone meets the aged test for\".", + "Repeated \"California's\" three times; reworded." + ], + "evidence": "\"The head's countable annual income is above the applicable California Medicaid income threshold for this case; not eligible\" (no figures, pathway or threshold anywhere in raw_response)", + "checked_text": "It gave no figures, pathway or threshold and only asserted that countable income was above the applicable California limit, which holds only if the state's $230 monthly disregard is skipped. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $23,853.47 less that disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It gave no figures, pathway or threshold and only asserted that countable income was above the applicable California limit, which holds against the engine's limit only if the state's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20. Age 67 alone meets the aged test for the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, where $23,853.47 less that disregard (which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion) gives $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. It said outright that countable income was over the limit, so the error lies in counting income." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"That holds only for gross income\" is wrong. Income after only SSI's $20 exclusion ($23,613.47) is still over the limit, so the conclusion holds whenever California's disregard is skipped. The model's SSI output mentions \"the general income exclusion\", so this case is not hypothetical.", + "\"The engine subtracts\" did not name the pathway. Changed to the senior-or-disabled pathway and merged into three sentences." + ], + "evidence": "\"The Head's annual retirement income exceeds California's income limit for the applicable aged Medicaid pathway, so the Head is not eligible\" (no figures). Its SSI output: \"Countable monthly Social Security, pension, and IRA income exceeds the federal SSI payment standard even after the general income exclusion\"", + "checked_text": "It identified the aged pathway but concluded, without showing figures, that retirement income exceeded California's limit. That holds only if California's $230 monthly disregard is skipped: gross income of $23,853.47 is $1,828.67 over the limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts that disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It identified the aged pathway but concluded, without showing figures, that retirement income exceeded California's limit. That holds against the engine's limit only if California's $230 monthly disregard is skipped or replaced by a smaller one, such as SSI's $20: gross income of $23,853.47 is $1,828.67 over the limit. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway subtracts that disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Kept. The pathway was right, and its decisive error was counting income without California's disregard." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "Minor clarity: the draft wrote '$23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard' as the source of $21,093.47, which mixes an annual figure with a monthly one and reads like a wrong subtraction. Added '($2,760 a year)'. Every other claim checks out: the model's words, the 138% limit of the 2026 guideline ($22,024.80), the $230 disregard replacing the $20 exclusion, and $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47.", + "The old Part B mechanism is fully gone. The annotation does not fault the model for choosing the aged pathway, which was correct." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"At age 67, the head is evaluated under California's aged Medicaid pathway, and the listed retirement income is above the applicable SSI-linked income level; therefore not eligible. value = 0\". It gives no income figure, exclusion or threshold amount and does not mention assets.", + "checked_text": "It placed the head in the aged pathway but tested income against an \"SSI-linked income level,\" giving no figures. The engine's limit for this pathway in California is $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and countable income is $21,093.47: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion.", + "final_text": "It placed the head in the aged pathway but tested income against an \"SSI-linked income level,\" giving no figures. The engine's limit for this pathway in California is $22,024.80 (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and countable income is $21,093.47: $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion.", + "subtype": "thresholds_rates", + "subtype_note": "The only error the response names is the threshold: an SSI-linked income level instead of the pathway's 138% FPL limit. No income or exclusion figure is given to fault, so the current thresholds_rates is kept." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "No errors. The model statements are supported: it ruled out adult expansion at 67, and it said retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeded California's aged limit, with no figures. The engine claims match the facts: the $230 disregard is passed in as the general exclusion, $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47, under $22,024.80. No Part B or premium language remains, and the annotation does not fault the correct adult-expansion ruling." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"at age 67 the adult expansion pathway does not apply, and retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeds California's aged Medicaid income limit. value = 0\". It states no amount for the exclusion, the income or the limit.", + "checked_text": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at 67 but said retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeded California's aged limit, giving no figures. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly ruled out the adult expansion group at 67 but said retirement income after the general income exclusion exceeded California's aged limit, giving no figures. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "The stated reasoning is a countable-income test after an exclusion, and the engine's result depends on how large that exclusion is. Corpus practice classes this as taxable_income_or_deductions, so it is kept." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "No errors. The model said its retirement income exceeded California's aged threshold and named no exclusion or figure, which the draft states accurately. The engine figures check out: $23,853.47 gross is over $22,024.80, and $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47 is under it. The disregard is correctly described as replacing the $20 exclusion. No Part B language remains." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"The head's retirement income exceeds the California income threshold for aged Medicaid eligibility and the head is not eligible; value = 0\". It names no exclusion, income figure or threshold amount.", + "checked_text": "It said the head's retirement income exceeded California's aged Medicaid threshold, naming no exclusion and giving no figures. Gross income of $23,853.47 is over the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), but the engine first subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It said the head's retirement income exceeded California's aged Medicaid threshold, naming no exclusion and giving no figures. Gross income of $23,853.47 is over the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), but the engine first subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "Gross income is over the limit and countable income is under it, so the case turns on the income disregard. That is a countable-income error, which the corpus classes as taxable_income_or_deductions. The current subtype is kept." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft said the model gave its answer 'without stating the exclusion', but the model did name it ('the applicable general income exclusion'). What it left out was the amount. Changed to 'without stating its amount, the income or the limit'.", + "Everything else checks out: the $230 disregard is passed in as the general exclusion and replaces the $20, $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47, and the limit is $22,024.80. No Part B or premium language remains." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"retirement income exceeds California's aged-person Medi-Cal income limit after the applicable general income exclusion, and no other qualifying pathway is listed; value = 0\". It states no amount for the exclusion, the income or the limit.", + "checked_text": "It said retirement income exceeded California's aged limit after \"the applicable general income exclusion,\" without stating its amount, the income or the limit. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "final_text": "It said retirement income exceeded California's aged limit after \"the applicable general income exclusion,\" without stating its amount, the income or the limit. In the engine that exclusion is California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "The stated reasoning is a countable-income test after a general exclusion, and the engine's answer depends on how large that exclusion is. Corpus practice uses taxable_income_or_deductions, so it is kept." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft dropped the current annotation's accurate point that the head also passes the asset test. Added that $4,200 is under the $130,000 limit. This model never reached any income or asset test, so the full path to eligibility should be stated.", + "The draft wrote '$23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard', which mixes an annual figure with a monthly one. Added '$2,760 a year'.", + "The rest is correct. 'full dual eligibles' appears only as the model's own words. The engine has no Medicare exclusion, and age 67 meets the aged test. The Part B mechanism is gone." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"Head is Medicare-eligible; Medicaid eligibility rules exclude full dual eligibles under PolicyEngine. value = 0\". The content says only \"The tool call follows.\" There is no Medicaid income or asset analysis.", + "checked_text": "It ruled the head out as Medicare-eligible, claiming the engine excludes \"full dual eligibles\" from Medicaid. The engine has no Medicare exclusion: at 67 the head counts as aged for the senior-or-disabled pathway, countable income of $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, $2,760 a year) is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and $4,200 in assets is under the $130,000 limit.", + "final_text": "It ruled the head out as Medicare-eligible, claiming the engine excludes \"full dual eligibles\" from Medicaid. In the engine's Medicaid rules, Medicare eligibility bars only the adult expansion group: at 67 the head counts as aged for the senior-or-disabled pathway, countable income of $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, $2,760 a year) is under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline), and $4,200 in assets is under the $130,000 limit.", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "The deciding error is a false categorical exclusion: it treated Medicare eligibility as a bar to Medicaid and never ran an income or asset test. categorical_eligibility is correct and is kept." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "No errors. The model statements are supported: it put about $23,853 of countable income (the gross total, with no disregard) and $4,200 in bank assets over California's aged limits. The engine figures check out: the asset limit is $130,000, $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47, and the limit is $22,024.80. No Part B language remains, and the annotation does not fault the correct aged pathway." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"Age 67 ABD pathway; countable income ~$23,853 and bank assets $4,200 both exceed CA Medi-Cal aged resource and income limits for full Medicaid or Medicare Savings Programs. value = 0\".", + "checked_text": "It said bank assets of $4,200 and countable income of about $23,853 both exceeded California's aged limits, counting gross income in full. The pathway's asset limit is $130,000, so $4,200 passes, and the engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "final_text": "It said bank assets of $4,200 and countable income of about $23,853 both exceeded California's aged limits, counting gross income in full. The pathway's asset limit is $130,000, so $4,200 passes, and the engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "subtype": "asset_resource", + "subtype_note": "It made two independent errors, and either one alone produces 0: it treated $4,200 as over the resource limit, and it counted gross income with no disregard. The explicit asset error makes the current asset_resource defensible, so it is kept." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "No errors. The quotes match the response exactly: 'MAGI/ABD countable income' of $23,853 and 'Aged & Disabled FPL'. The real-world program name appears only as the model's own words. The engine claims match the facts: income is counted under SSI rules, the $230 disregard replaces the $20 exclusion, the result is $21,093.47, and the limit is $22,024.80. No Part B language remains." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"Head is 67 with Medicare-age status and MAGI/ABD countable income of $23,853, which exceeds California's Aged & Disabled FPL and Medicare Savings Program limits, so not eligible. value = 0\". It names no exclusion or limit amount.", + "checked_text": "It counted the full $23,853 as \"MAGI/ABD countable income\" and said it exceeded California's \"Aged & Disabled FPL\" limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "final_text": "It counted the full $23,853 as \"MAGI/ABD countable income\" and said it exceeded California's \"Aged & Disabled FPL\" limit. The engine counts that income under SSI rules but subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard, which takes the place of SSI's $20 exclusion, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "The deciding error is counting gross income with no disregard, a countable-income error. The corpus classes these as taxable_income_or_deductions, so it is kept." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [ + "No errors. The model explicitly used only the $20 monthly disregard and the 138% FPL limit, and the annotation does not fault the threshold, which was correct. The arithmetic checks out: $23,853.47 - $240 = $23,613.47, over $22,024.80, and $23,853.47 - $2,760 = $21,093.47, under it. The $230 disregard is correctly described as replacing the $20. Monthly figures are appropriate here because the model worked in monthly terms. No Part B language remains." + ], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"After the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard, countable income exceeds California's 138% FPL Aged and Disabled Medi-Cal limit, so the head is not eligible for Medicaid. value = 0\".", + "checked_text": "It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against California's 138% FPL limit, which leaves about $23,613, still over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine uses California's $230 monthly disregard in place of that $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the limit.", + "final_text": "It applied only the $20 monthly unearned-income disregard before testing against California's 138% FPL limit, which leaves about $23,613, still over the $22,024.80 limit. The engine uses California's $230 monthly disregard in place of that $20 exclusion, so countable income is $21,093.47 ($23,853.47 less $2,760), under the limit.", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "The threshold was right, and the only error is the size of the income disregard ($20 instead of California's $230). That is a countable-income error, taxable_income_or_deductions in corpus practice, so it is kept." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "Medicaid explanation: \"Bank account assets of $4,200 exceed the $2,000 asset limit for Medi-Cal eligibility for aged individuals in California.\" SSI answer: \"exceed the $2,000 SSI resource limit\". The Medicaid answer has no income test.", + "checked_text": "It applied a $2,000 asset limit to aged Medi-Cal and denied eligibility because the $4,200 in bank assets exceeded it, but $2,000 is SSI's resource limit, not this pathway's test. The engine's California senior-or-disabled pathway allows assets below $130,000, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It applied a $2,000 asset limit to aged Medicaid and denied eligibility because the $4,200 in bank assets exceeded it, but $2,000 is SSI's resource limit, not this pathway's test. The engine's California senior-or-disabled pathway allows assets below $130,000, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "asset_resource", + "subtype_note": "The model's only reason for 0 was the $2,000 asset limit, so asset_resource is correct. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"CA Medi-Cal for aged individuals generally requires income at or below 100% FPL (~$15,650/year); the head's ~$23,853 annual income exceeds that limit\"", + "checked_text": "It applied a 100% FPL limit of about $15,650, the 2025 guideline, and compared gross income of about $23,853 against it. The engine uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80, and subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard (in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) from $23,853.47, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "final_text": "It applied a 100% FPL limit of about $15,650, the 2025 guideline, and compared gross income of about $23,853 against it. The engine uses 138% of the 2026 guideline, $22,024.80, and subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year, in place of SSI's $20 exclusion) from $23,853.47, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the limit.", + "subtype": "thresholds_rates", + "subtype_note": "The 100% FPL threshold is decisive on its own: even the correct $21,093.47 fails $15,650. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "The draft says \"age 67 meets it\" about the pathway. That repeats the overclaim the draft itself flagged in the old annotation: age meets only the aged criterion, and the pathway also needs the income and asset tests. Changed to \"age 67 alone meets its aged criterion\".", + "\"needs neither disability nor SSI receipt\" left out blindness, which the model also cited. Reworded to \"needs no disability, blindness or SSI receipt\"." + ], + "evidence": "\"California Medicaid expansion covers adults ages 19 through 64, so the Head at age 67 is outside that age group. The Head is also not indicated as disabled, blind, pregnant, or an SSI recipient, and therefore does not qualify for categorical non-MAGI aged or disabled Medicaid pathways\"", + "checked_text": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but ruled out the aged and disabled pathways because the head was not disabled, blind or an SSI recipient. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs no disability, blindness or SSI receipt; age 67 alone meets its aged criterion. Countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but ruled out the aged and disabled pathways because the head was not disabled, blind or an SSI recipient. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs no disability, blindness or SSI receipt; age 67 alone meets its aged criterion. Countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "The only reason given was category: no income or asset test was run. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"At 67 Head is outside the ACA adult expansion group, and the listed retirement income is above PolicyEngine's California aged Medi-Cal income limit, so Head is not Medicaid eligible.\" It names no limit, gives no figure and applies no disregard.", + "checked_text": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but said the listed retirement income exceeded the California aged income limit, without naming a limit or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly placed the head outside the adult expansion group but said the listed retirement income exceeded the California aged income limit, without naming a limit or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "A countable-income error with unadjusted income and no disregard. The corpus files these under taxable_income_or_deductions. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"Income ~$24k/year for single. CA Medicaid for 65+: income limit higher. However, head_medicaid_eligible under PolicyEngine may differ. With SS $9,445 and pension $13,608, countable income may exceed limit. Likely 0.\"", + "checked_text": "It guessed that about $24,000 of income might exceed an unstated senior limit and answered 0 without naming a threshold or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It guessed that about $24,000 of income might exceed an unstated senior limit and answered 0 without naming a threshold or applying any disregard. The engine subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of Social Security, pension and IRA income, leaving countable income of $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "It used unadjusted income with no disregard, a countable-income error. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "verdict": "ok", + "problems_found": [], + "evidence": "\"At 65+ the head falls in the aged category, where Medi-Cal/Medicaid eligibility follows SSI-related rules; he fails the $2,000 resource limit ($4,200 in bank assets) and his ~$24,000 income also exceeds aged-program income standards\"", + "checked_text": "It correctly treated the head as aged but applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets and said gross income of about $24,000 exceeded the aged income standard. The engine's California pathway allows assets below $130,000 and subtracts a $230 monthly disregard from the $23,853.47 of income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It correctly treated the head as aged but applied SSI's $2,000 resource limit to the $4,200 in bank assets and said gross income of about $24,000 exceeded the aged income standard. The engine's California pathway allows assets below $130,000 and subtracts a $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from the $23,853.47 of income, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "asset_resource", + "subtype_note": "Both the asset error and the income error are decisive. The model named the asset test first, so asset_resource is not clearly wrong. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"since age 67 meets it\" overclaims: age meets only the pathway's aged criterion, and the income and asset tests still apply. Changed to \"age 67 alone meets its aged criterion\".", + "The draft does not say what the $230 disregard is subtracted from. Added \"from $23,853.47\" so $21,093.47 follows from it.", + "The paraphrase \"aged, blind and disabled limits\" names a real-world program category without quoting the model. Replaced with the model's exact words in quotes." + ], + "evidence": "\"Head is 67 and thus qualifies for Medicare, not Medicaid through the ACA MAGI pathways. Head's countable income (Social Security $9,445 + taxable IRA $800 + taxable pension $13,608 = $23,853) exceeds typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits, and no disability, nursing home, or SSI status is indicated.\"", + "checked_text": "It counted $23,853 of Social Security, pension and IRA income in full, said it exceeded \"typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits\" without naming one, and cited the missing disability or SSI status. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs neither, since age 67 alone meets its aged criterion, and it subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard from $23,853.47, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It counted $23,853 of Social Security, pension and IRA income in full, said it exceeded \"typical aged/blind/disabled Medicaid limits\" without naming one, and cited the missing disability or SSI status. The engine's senior-or-disabled pathway needs neither, since age 67 alone meets its aged criterion, and it subtracts California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year) from $23,853.47, leaving $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "taxable_income_or_deductions", + "subtype_note": "The main stated reason was income counted in full with no disregard, and missing status was secondary. The current subtype is not clearly wrong. Kept." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "verdict": "fixed", + "problems_found": [ + "\"Age 65 or older alone meets the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway\" overclaims: age meets only the aged criterion, and the pathway also needs the income and asset tests. Changed to \"meets the aged criterion of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway\"." + ], + "evidence": "\"The 67-year-old Head is not disabled, blind, pregnant, or otherwise in an eligibility category listed, and their income is above the applicable Medicaid pathway for a senior in this household\". The Medicaid answer gives no income figure or limit.", + "checked_text": "It said the 67-year-old was not disabled, blind or in any other listed category, and that income was above the senior pathway's limit without naming a figure. Age 65 or older alone meets the aged criterion of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard, or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "final_text": "It said the 67-year-old was not disabled, blind or in any other listed category, and that income was above the senior pathway's limit without naming a figure. Age 65 or older alone meets the aged criterion of the engine's senior-or-disabled pathway, and countable income is $23,853.47 less California's $230 monthly disregard ($2,760 a year), or $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 guideline).", + "subtype": "categorical_eligibility", + "subtype_note": "The lead reason was that the head fit no category, and the income claim gave no figure. Kept." + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..deb60345 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,198 @@ +# Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses, October 5, 2026 + +This directory audits the Medicare Part B premium that PolicyBench's US references count as a medical expense. It proposes one exclusion, scenario_114's Virginia income tax, and drafts a fallback record for scenario_114's federal income tax. It changes no reference. Adopting the record changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling, alongside the state income tax withholding proposal in PolicyEngine/policybench#191 (decision d963), so that one release can carry both. + +## The mechanism + +These files hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, the version that built the published references, as installed in the reference venv (`results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517`). The conventions module `latest_final` (`../2026-09-28/fixes/`) touches none of them. + +- `medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums` (`variables/household/expense/health/`) returns `health_insurance_premiums` when that input is nonzero. Otherwise it returns `health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled`. `health_insurance_premiums` has no formula, and no household sets it. +- `medicare_enrolled` adds `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`, whose default is true, for everyone `is_medicare_eligible` covers. That variable covers age 65 and over, or Social Security disability benefits with at least 24 months of `months_receiving_social_security_disability`. So the engine treats every eligible person as enrolled. +- `medicare_part_b_premium` is `gross_medicare_part_b_premium` less `msp_part_b_premium_coverage` (Medicare Savings Program), floored at 0. + - The gross premium is `base_part_b_premium` plus an income-related amount. The base premium is the CMS standard premium times 12: $202.90 × 12 = $2,434.80 for 2026. + - The income-related amount reads `medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior`. Its formula computes AGI plus tax-exempt interest for 2024. No household sets any 2024 income, so it is 0 and no income-related amount applies. +- These variables consume the premium through `medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums`: + - `itemized_medical_expenses`. It feeds the federal medical expense deduction (`medical_expense_deduction`, 26 U.S.C. 213(a): expenses above 7.5% of AGI) and the state deductions built on it. Examples are Virginia's itemized deductions (which start from the federal itemized deductions), Alabama's, New Jersey's, Kansas's, New York's and Arizona's. + - `snap_allowable_medical_expenses`, the SNAP excess medical deduction for elderly or disabled members. + - `medicaid_medically_needy_medical_expenses`. + - `oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_amount`, which counts premiums for Medicare-eligible people only. + - `mt_medical_expense_deduction_indiv`, `hud_medical_expenses` and `pa_ccw_medical_expenses`. +- `medicare_part_b_premium` also enters the SPM unit's premiums and Washington's senior property tax exemption income; no output reads either. Enrollment also gates: + - the Part A premium and Part D income-related surcharge (SPM only); + - MSP coverage; + - `medicare_cost`, the impact weight of the Medicare eligibility outputs; + - the ACA "at interview" coverage list and CHIP's disqualifying-coverage list. + + The ACA premium tax credit treats Medicare eligibility as disqualifying (`ineligible_coverage` lists `is_medicare_eligible`), so enrollment, which it also reads through the "at interview" list, adds nothing. No output reads the credit: it is not in the federal refundable-credit output. + +## The prompts + +No PolicyBench household sets `medicare_enrolled`, `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`, `medicare_part_b_premium` or `health_insurance_premiums`, so no prompt states Medicare enrollment or a Part B premium. `policybench/scenarios.py` would also hide the first two: `medicare_enrolled` is in `EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES`, and `takes_up_` is an excluded prefix. The prompt's rules (`policybench/prompts.py`, `TASK_PREFACE`, unchanged since before the June run) say: + +- "Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and any other unlisted household fact, boolean, or status input as false." +- "Assume tax filing and program take-up when required." +- "Do not infer unlisted income, expenses, assets, benefit receipt, rent, or health coverage." + +The take-up sentence is the strongest case for the frozen reading: a reader may take a 69-year-old with Social Security retirement income to be enrolled in Part B and paying the standard premium. Three things point the other way: + +- The benchmark sets take-up only for the programs its household data list. `DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS` covers Medicaid, SSI, the ACA credit, the DC property tax credit, the EITC, SNAP and tax filing, not Medicare; the engine's own default supplies Medicare enrollment. +- The Medicare request asks only whether a person is eligible. +- The more specific rules treat unlisted numbers as 0 and forbid inferring expenses or health coverage. + +So a careful reader could take the facts either way, which is the case `reference_depends_on_unlisted_input` covers. The drafted records state both sides. + +Sixty-one people in 53 households carry `health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b`, which the prompt labels "health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B". That line states the person's other premiums; it states no Part B amount. Ten of the 30 households charged the premium carry it, always on a charged person (12 of the 35). The label can itself suggest Medicare coverage. In scenario_073, Inkling answered that the head is Medicare-eligible partly because of "the presence of Medicare Part B premium exclusions in the health premiums". No output in those 10 households turns on the premium (below). + +scenario_114's prompt has no premium or coverage line. It lists a single head, age 69, with Social Security retirement income, $10,000 of other medical expenses and $2,000 of over-the-counter health expenses. The engine leaves over-the-counter purchases out of itemized medical expenses. + +## Method + +1. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_part_b.py` rebuilds every household with `Scenario.to_pe_household` and computes every output and impact weight on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final`, the system that built the references. Its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references. It then reruns every household under four readings: + - `no_part_b`: each person's `medicare_part_b_premium` is 0 (the prompt's unlisted-number rule; enrollment unchanged); + - `not_enrolled`: each person's `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible` is false, which removes every channel that reads enrollment (the rule against inferring health coverage); + - `not_enrolled_direct`: each person's `medicare_enrolled` is false, a differential check on `not_enrolled`; the two agree on every output; + - `irmaa_from_2026_income`: the income-related amount read on the household's 2026 MAGI instead of the unset 2024 MAGI, a check on the premium's size. + + For each household with a Medicare-eligible person it records each person's Medicare variables and a propagation trace. The trace lists every engine variable, at every 2026 period the simulation computed, whose value differs between the reference and the `no_part_b` or `not_enrolled` simulation. Households where an output moves also run on a grid: the Part B readings crossed with the four readings of the state income tax in SALT from #191 (withholding estimate, liability at a fixed point, none paid, none paid without the local sales tax estimate). Outputs: `verification/sweep_part_b.csv` (every output and impact weight under every reading), `verification/sweep_part_b_summary.json`, `verification/sweep_part_b_households.json` and `verification/sweep_part_b.log`. +2. **Explain.** `scripts/explain_households.py` writes `verification/part_b_households.csv`. Each of the 33 Medicare households gets a row with the premium, the federal itemization election and medical deduction with and without it, its federal, state and SNAP outputs, and the state variables its trace shows moving. +3. **Propose.** `scripts/propose_exclusions.py` writes `proposed_exclusions.json`. It holds a `reference_depends_on_unlisted_input` record, in the format of the frozen run's `reference_exclusions.json`, for every scored output that `no_part_b` moves by more than the $1 exact-match tolerance. An output #191 already proposes to exclude gets a standalone record under `conditional_on_salt_decision` instead, to install only if #191's record is not adopted. The script also writes `verification/model_answers.csv`, which tags every model's answer on the moved outputs with the readings it lands within $1 of. It reads #191's records from `verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json`, a copy of #191's `reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json` at head 8af912a0 that the script checks against its sha256, so this directory does not depend on #191's branch. +4. **Impact.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` copies the frozen run to scratch directories and never writes the snapshot. It scores each copy with `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs. The unchanged copy reproduces every compared value of the published payload. It then scores three cases: + - this audit's two records alone, as if #191 is not adopted; + - #191's three records alone, which reproduces #191's figures exactly; + - #191's three plus this audit's Virginia record. + + Each case also recomputes the legacy household impact summary, `impact_summary_by_model.csv`. The freeze writes it beside the analyze output with `scripts/freeze_snapshot.household_impact_summary_by_model`, and the snapshot manifest pins it. The unchanged copy reproduces the frozen file. Outputs: `verification/leaderboard_impact.json`, `leaderboard_impact_models.csv`, `leaderboard_impact_marginal.csv` and `leaderboard_impact.log`. +5. **Verify.** Four independent reviewers checked the work in a Claude Code workflow on 2026-10-05, each in its own scratch directory: + - **Mechanism.** One read the engine source, built a static graph of every reader of the premium, recomputed scenario_114 to the cent from engine intermediates, and reran all 100 households. + - **Differential.** One reran the no-premium sweep two other ways: a parameter reform setting the 2026 base premium to 0, and a structural reform cutting `medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums` to its non-Medicare branch. Both were bit-identical to `no_part_b` on all 1,984 outputs. + - **Prompts and answers.** One rendered all 100 prompts, matched them to the frozen payload, read the matching models' explanations, and judged the record against the exclusion rule. + - **Completeness.** One looked for missed channels and script bugs, validated the records against the loader, and checked every quoted number. + + Their reports are in `verification/independent_reviews.json`; their scratch paths are not kept. The reviewers raised three should-fix points, all fixed here: the records now state the take-up argument and its answer, the ACA sentence now names both tests, and the stale-weight finding below is narrowed. An adversarial review on a Subfleet review lane is in `verification/reviews/`. + +## What moves + +- **Who is charged.** 39 people in 33 households are Medicare-eligible, all of them by age. The engine charges the premium to 35 people in 30 households. The Medicare Savings Program pays it for the other 4 people, in scenario_001, scenario_043 and scenario_118. +- **What moves.** Under `no_part_b`, `not_enrolled` and `not_enrolled_direct`, exactly two outputs move by more than $1, both in scenario_114, and both are scored. +- **What does not.** No SNAP or eligibility output in any Medicare household changes by any amount under any reading. `irmaa_from_2026_income` moves no output. + +| Output | Reference | No Part B premium | Status | +|---|---:|---:|---| +| scenario_114 federal income tax before refundable credits | 10,729.61 | 11,265.27 | scored; #191 proposes to exclude it for the withholding estimate | +| scenario_114 Virginia income tax before refundable credits | 3,514.15 | 3,654.15 | scored; proposed here | + +The household itemizes. Its federal medical expense deduction is $12,434.80 of expenses less 7.5% of $106,572.56 AGI: $4,441.86 with the premium and $2,007.06 without it. The $2,434.80 difference is taxed at 22% federally ($535.66). Virginia's itemized deductions start from the federal ones, so it is also taxed at Virginia's 5.75% ($140.00). Virginia follows the federal election (`va_deductions` reads `tax_unit_itemizes`). + +### Why the other 29 households do not move + +From `verification/part_b_households.csv`: + +- **Below the floor.** In 7 households (000, 022, 033, 042, 055, 120, 122), medical expenses stay below 7.5% of AGI with or without the premium. 022 and 120 itemize, but their medical deduction is $0 either way. +- **Standard deduction.** In 21 households (002, 013, 021, 027, 031, 040, 044, 048, 059, 060, 062, 071, 085, 092, 095, 098, 104, 107, 108, 111 and 115), the deduction moves but the household takes the federal standard deduction under both readings. +- **Itemizes only with the premium.** scenario_072 itemizes with the premium and takes the standard deduction without it. Its federal income tax is $0 either way. +- **State variables.** State variables move in 13 households, all but one of them tax variables; 085's is Pennsylvania's child care medical expense. Every state output stays the same: + - $0 in AZ (013, 040), MO (021), CA (031), KS (044), OH (048, 107), NY (071, 104), AL (092) and NJ (095). In NJ, `nj_main_income_tax` moves by $26.35. + - $4.68 in AL (115), which takes Alabama's standard deduction either way. +- **SNAP.** SNAP's excess medical deduction moves in every household charged the premium. In 27 of them SNAP is $0 under both readings. In 013, 027 and 108, the expected contribution exceeds the maximum allotment under both, so SNAP pays the $24 monthly minimum either way. +- **Medicaid.** No Medicaid eligibility output turns on the premium. In particular, scenario_031's Medicaid reference (eligible) is the same under every reading (see "Related findings"). + +### scenario_114 under both unlisted inputs + +#191 shows that the federal SALT deduction's state income tax part is also an unlisted input. The two inputs interact through the itemization election: + +| Part B premium | SALT state income tax | Federal | Virginia | Itemizes | +|---|---|---:|---:|---| +| modeled | withholding estimate (reference) | 10,729.61 | 3,514.15 | yes | +| modeled | liability | 11,137.31 | 3,514.15 | yes | +| modeled | none paid | 11,758.09 | 3,514.15 | yes | +| modeled | none paid, no local sales tax | 11,783.48 | 3,514.15 | yes | +| none | withholding estimate | 11,265.27 | 3,654.15 | yes | +| none | liability | 11,642.16 | 3,654.15 | yes | +| none | none paid | 11,969.80 | 4,127.67 | no | +| none | none paid, no local sales tax | 11,969.80 | 4,127.67 | no | + +`not_enrolled` gives the same values as "none" in every row. + +No model answered within $1 of either frozen reference. Model answers land on the other readings (`verification/model_answers.csv`): + +- **Virginia.** GPT-6 Astra ($3,654.16) and GPT-6.1 Sol ($3,654.66) are within $1 of the value without the premium. +- **Federal, liability.** GPT-6.1 Sol ($11,642.09) and GPT-6 Astra ($11,642.20) are within $1 of the value without the premium under the liability. +- **Federal, literal.** Kimi K3 ($11,969.85) and GPT-5.6 Sol ($11,970.00) are within $1 of the literal reading: no premium and no state income tax paid. + +## Proposed records + +- **scenario_114 Virginia income tax.** One record in `proposed_exclusions.json` (`exclusions`): frozen $3,514.15, alternative $3,654.15. Its note gives the values under #191's readings. +- **scenario_114 federal income tax.** #191 proposes to exclude this output for the withholding estimate, and the loader refuses two records for one output. #191's record already quotes the values without the premium ($11,265.27, $11,642.16 and $11,969.80). + - If d963 adopts #191's record, a release adds the Part B input to that record's `unlisted_input` text; the exact words are in `proposed_exclusions.json`. + - If #191's record is not adopted, the output still rests on the Part B premium. `conditional_on_salt_decision` holds a standalone record for it: frozen $10,729.61, alternative $11,265.27. + +## Leaderboard impact + +From `verification/leaderboard_impact.json`. Scored outputs per model are 1,928 today. + +| Case | Records added | Scored outputs | Exact-rate change, all models | GPT-6 Sol exact | Always-zero exact | +|---|---:|---:|---|---:|---:| +| published | 0 | 1,928 | | 95.00% | 69.98% | +| this audit alone (if #191 is not adopted) | 2 | 1,926 | +0.18 to +0.26 points | 95.27% | 70.14% | +| #191 alone | 3 | 1,925 | +0.42 to +0.61 points | 95.61% | 70.39% | +| #191 and the Virginia record | 4 | 1,924 | +0.47 to +0.69 points | 95.69% | 70.44% | + +- **This audit alone.** No exact or bounded-score rank changes. One within-1% pair swaps: Claude Opus 4.8 and MiniMax M3 (#39/#40). Exact match rises from 61.6% to 62.4% for federal income tax and from 64.3% to 65.1% for state income tax. +- **#191 and the Virginia record.** The rank changes are #191's: + - exact: Claude Sonnet 5.5 passes GPT-6 Luna for fourth; + - within 1%: three adjacent pairs swap; + - bounded score: three adjacent pairs swap, plus Grok 4.3 and Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview (#35/#36). + + On top of #191's records, the Virginia record adds 0.05 to 0.08 points to every model's exact rate and changes no exact rank. + +Every model missed both scenario_114 outputs, so excluding them raises every model's rate. + +The legacy household impact summary (`impact_summary_by_model.csv`) moves too. In every case, Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Claude Opus 4.7 swap at #24/#25 on `mean_impact_score`; no other model changes rank there. #191's README does not report this file. + +## Related findings + +- **Stale impact weights.** The published `reference_outputs.csv` carries impact weights for 90 eligibility outputs that differ from those 2.15.17 computes. They comprise 39 Medicare, 37 Medicaid, 9 school-meal and 5 WIC outputs. For example, `head_medicare_eligible` is $5,285.20 published and $12,065.20 on 2.15.17, a gap of $6,780.00. The references' 2026-09-29 rebuild (`../2026-09-28/scripts/build_references_latest.py`) rewrote the `value` column only. + + `leaderboard_impact.py --weights-check` scores a copy with 2.15.17's weights: + - No value in the analyze payload changes. That payload holds the dashboard's model, program, heatmap, weight and failure-mode figures. + - The legacy household impact summary reads the row weights, so it changes. Every model's `mean_impact_score` rises by 0.0012 to 0.0128, and 10 of 46 models change rank (five adjacent pairs swap). + - Nothing in the app, the paper or the package reads that file; the freeze writes it and the manifest pins it. + + A separate task covers the fix. +- **Enrollment changes only weights.** `not_enrolled` sets `medicare_cost`, the impact weight of the 39 Medicare eligibility outputs, to 0. It changes no output. +- **scenario_031's Medicaid annotations name the wrong mechanism.** They explain the reference (eligible, through California's optional senior-or-disabled pathway) by subtracting the Part B premium from income, and 43 row annotations fault models for not doing so. + - On 2.15.17, `medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income` subtracts no premium. It applies SSI income rules with California's $230 monthly disregard: $23,853.47 less $2,760.00 is $21,093.47, under the $22,024.80 limit (138% of the 2026 poverty guideline). + - The values are the same under every reading here, so the reference is unaffected. PolicyEngine/policybench#197 rewrites the case note, the reference explanation and the 43 rows to the engine's mechanism. +- **scenario_114's annotations.** The session that made #197 checked them against the engine. Its row-by-row report and suggested wording are in a comment on this PR (PolicyEngine/policybench#193). This audit checked the counts and figures below. + - **Virginia case note.** Its error group (4) blames models for "leaving out the $2,000 over-the-counter expenses or adding the 0.5%-of-AGI charitable floor". The reference itself leaves out the over-the-counter expenses and applies the floor. What the short answers miss is the premium. + - **Virginia rows.** Six rows repeat the over-the-counter claim. About five more misstate the premium's role, among them the rows for GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol, whose answers match the value without the premium. + - **Federal case note.** It lists "missing the Part B premium" among model errors; that error rests on the unlisted premium. It also gives the SALT state income tax as $5,367.59 where the engine has $5,367.30, and six federal rows repeat that figure. + + Excluded outputs stay in the published payload, so a release adopting the records rewords the rows as well as the notes. +- **#191's README rounding.** With its records, #191 gives GPT-6 Sol's exact rate as 95.62% and the always-zero baseline as 70.40%. Its own outputs give 95.6146 and 70.3946, and this audit's #191-alone case reproduces both, so they round to 95.61% and 70.39%. + +## What a release adopting the records must also do + +Two sets of counts follow, one if d963 adopts #191's three records and one if it does not. + +1. **Adjudications.** Add a developer adjudication (`excluded_from_scoring: true`, `adjudicated_failure_source: prompt_ambiguity`) to `annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json` for each record. Without them, `scripts/freeze_snapshot.py`'s `reference_exclusions_block` stops the freeze. +2. **Annotation rows.** Relabel the excluded outputs' `llm_error` rows to `prompt_ambiguity`, as for every other exclusion (`tests/test_paper_results.py` checks this): + - scenario_114 Virginia: 45 rows; + - scenario_114 federal: 45 rows, if the standalone record is used. + + Reword scenario_114's two case notes and the rows that repeat their errors (see "Related findings"). +3. **Pinned counts.** Each output carries 46 model rows, and none is an exact match. + + | Count | With #191 adopted | Without #191 | + |---|---|---| + | exclusions | 59 → 60 | 56 → 58 | + | unlisted-input exclusions | 31 → 32 | 28 → 30 | + | households with an exclusion | stays 40 | 39 → 40 | + | scored outputs per model | 1,925 → 1,924 | 1,928 → 1,926 | + | 2.15.17-era records | 7 → 8 | 4 → 6 | + | adjudications | 72 → 73 | 69 → 71 | + | audited rows | 7,722 → 7,676 | 7,860 → 7,768 | + | exact-match misses | 7,718 → 7,672 | 7,856 → 7,764 | + +4. **Paper.** Add the Medicare enrollment and Part B premium input to the paper's unlisted-input list and sweep narrative, and re-render the abstract and tables. +5. **Legacy impact summary.** The freeze regenerates `impact_summary_by_model.csv` from the scored reference; its pin in the snapshot manifest changes with the records (see "Leaderboard impact"). diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9bd2e9a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json @@ -0,0 +1,121 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "status": "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's date.", + "basis": "policybench/reference_exclusions.py: an output is excluded for every model when its reference depends on an engine input the prompt never listed and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way.", + "salt_proposal": { + "pr": "PolicyEngine/policybench#191", + "head": "8af912a062dd7ae1373de4c043ae2727d3406930", + "decision": "d963", + "outputs": [ + "scenario_022/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_081/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_114/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ] + }, + "exclusions": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment and no Medicare Part B premium, and its rules say to treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and not to infer unlisted expenses or health coverage. The reference counts a modeled Part B premium as a medical expense: policyengine-us treats the head (age 69, so Medicare-eligible) as enrolled because takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, and medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums adds medicare_part_b_premium, the 2026 standard premium of $202.90 a month, $2,434.80, to the listed $10,000 of other medical expenses. The household itemizes, so the federal medical expense deduction (26 U.S.C. 213(a): expenses above 7.5% of AGI) counts it, and Virginia's itemized deductions, which start from the federal itemized deductions (va_itemized_deductions), carry it too. The prompt also says to assume program take-up when required, and a reader who takes a 69-year-old with Social Security retirement income to be enrolled in Part B and paying the standard premium gets the frozen value. But the benchmark sets take-up only for the programs its household data list (Medicaid, SSI, the ACA credit, the DC property tax credit, the EITC, SNAP and tax filing; policybench.scenarios.DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS), and Medicare is not among them; the Medicare request asks only whether the head is eligible; and the more specific rules against inferring unlisted expenses or health coverage point the other way. Read with no Part B premium paid, the deduction falls by $2,434.80 and the output is the alternative value.", + "frozen_value": 3514.14501953125, + "alternative_value": 3654.14599609375, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with each person's Medicare Part B premium at 0, and again with Medicare enrollment off (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references). Of 39 Medicare-eligible people in 33 households, the engine charges the premium in 30 (Medicare Savings Program coverage pays it for the 4 eligible people in the other 3); only this household's two tax outputs move, under either reading. The federal medical expense deduction is $4,441.86 in the reference ($12,434.80 of expenses less 7.5% of $106,572.56 AGI) and $2,007.06 without the premium; the household itemizes under both. The output also depends on the state income tax in the federal SALT deduction, which PolicyEngine/policybench#191 proposes to treat as an unlisted input (decision d963), through the federal itemization election, which Virginia follows (va_deductions reads tax_unit_itemizes). Without the premium the output is $3,654.15 under both the withholding estimate and the liability; with no state income tax paid it is $4,127.67, with or without the local sales tax estimate, because the household then takes the federal and Virginia standard deductions. With the premium it is $3,514.15 under all four readings. The premium is the standard premium: the engine reads the income-related adjustment from MAGI two years earlier, which no household sets, and at this household's 2026 MAGI ($106,572.56) none would apply. GPT-6 Astra ($3,654.16) and GPT-6.1 Sol ($3,654.66) answered within $1 of the alternative value, and no model within $1 of the frozen value." + } + ], + "conditional_on_salt_decision": [ + { + "record": { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment and no Medicare Part B premium, and its rules say to treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and not to infer unlisted expenses or health coverage. The reference counts a modeled Part B premium as a medical expense: policyengine-us treats the head (age 69, so Medicare-eligible) as enrolled because takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, and medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums adds medicare_part_b_premium, the 2026 standard premium of $202.90 a month, $2,434.80, to the listed $10,000 of other medical expenses. The household itemizes, so the federal medical expense deduction (26 U.S.C. 213(a): expenses above 7.5% of AGI) counts it. The prompt also says to assume program take-up when required, and a reader who takes a 69-year-old with Social Security retirement income to be enrolled in Part B and paying the standard premium gets the frozen value. But the benchmark sets take-up only for the programs its household data list (Medicaid, SSI, the ACA credit, the DC property tax credit, the EITC, SNAP and tax filing; policybench.scenarios.DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS), and Medicare is not among them; the Medicare request asks only whether the head is eligible; and the more specific rules against inferring unlisted expenses or health coverage point the other way. Read with no Part B premium paid, the deduction falls by $2,434.80 and the output is the alternative value.", + "frozen_value": 10729.6123046875, + "alternative_value": 11265.267578125, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with each person's Medicare Part B premium at 0, and again with Medicare enrollment off (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references). Of 39 Medicare-eligible people in 33 households, the engine charges the premium in 30 (Medicare Savings Program coverage pays it for the 4 eligible people in the other 3); only this household's two tax outputs move, under either reading. The federal medical expense deduction is $4,441.86 in the reference ($12,434.80 of expenses less 7.5% of $106,572.56 AGI) and $2,007.06 without the premium; the household itemizes under both. Under the readings of the state income tax in SALT that PolicyEngine/policybench#191 sets out, without the premium the output is $11,642.16 under the liability and $11,969.80 with no state income tax paid (the household then takes the standard deduction). The premium is the standard premium: the engine reads the income-related adjustment from MAGI two years earlier, which no household sets, and at this household's 2026 MAGI ($106,572.56) none would apply. No model answered within $1 of the alternative value, and no model within $1 of the frozen value. GPT-6.1 Sol ($11,642.09) and GPT-6 Astra ($11,642.20) answered within $1 of the value with no premium and the liability, and Kimi K3 ($11,969.85) and GPT-5.6 Sol ($11,970.00) within $1 of the value with no premium and no state income tax paid." + }, + "readings": { + "salt_by_part_b": { + "modeled": { + "estimate": 10729.6123046875, + "liability": 11137.306640625, + "zero": 11758.08984375, + "zero_no_local_sales": 11783.4775390625 + }, + "no_part_b": { + "estimate": 11265.267578125, + "liability": 11642.162109375, + "zero": 11969.8037109375, + "zero_no_local_sales": 11969.8037109375 + } + }, + "itemizes": { + "modeled|estimate": true, + "modeled|liability": true, + "modeled|zero": true, + "modeled|zero_no_local_sales": true, + "no_part_b|estimate": true, + "no_part_b|liability": true, + "no_part_b|zero": false, + "no_part_b|zero_no_local_sales": false, + "not_enrolled|estimate": true, + "not_enrolled|liability": true, + "not_enrolled|zero": false, + "not_enrolled|zero_no_local_sales": false + }, + "not_enrolled": 11265.267578125 + }, + "install_if": "PolicyEngine/policybench#191's record for this output (decision d963) is not adopted. The output then still rests on the Part B premium and needs this record.", + "if_salt_record_adopted": "PolicyEngine/policybench#191's record already excludes the output, and its note already gives the values without the premium (it quotes $11,265.27, $11,642.16 and $11,969.80). A release adds the unlisted input to that record's unlisted_input text: '; also Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium (medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set either'.", + "salt_record_frozen_value": 10729.6123046875, + "salt_record_alternative_value": 11137.306640625 + } + ], + "already_excluded": [], + "readings": { + "scenario_114/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": { + "salt_by_part_b": { + "modeled": { + "estimate": 3514.14501953125, + "liability": 3514.14501953125, + "zero": 3514.14501953125, + "zero_no_local_sales": 3514.14501953125 + }, + "no_part_b": { + "estimate": 3654.14599609375, + "liability": 3654.14599609375, + "zero": 4127.66650390625, + "zero_no_local_sales": 4127.66650390625 + } + }, + "itemizes": { + "modeled|estimate": true, + "modeled|liability": true, + "modeled|zero": true, + "modeled|zero_no_local_sales": true, + "no_part_b|estimate": true, + "no_part_b|liability": true, + "no_part_b|zero": false, + "no_part_b|zero_no_local_sales": false, + "not_enrolled|estimate": true, + "not_enrolled|liability": true, + "not_enrolled|zero": false, + "not_enrolled|zero_no_local_sales": false + }, + "not_enrolled": 3654.14599609375 + } + }, + "readings_moving_no_further_output": [ + "not_enrolled", + "not_enrolled_direct", + "irmaa_from_2026_income" + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/explain_households.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/explain_households.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..309f8a04 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/explain_households.py @@ -0,0 +1,103 @@ +"""Tabulate, for every household with a Medicare-eligible person, where the premium goes. + +Reads verification/sweep_part_b_households.json and writes +verification/part_b_households.csv: one row per household with the premium the engine +charges, the federal itemization election and medical expense deduction with and +without it, the household's federal, state and SNAP outputs, the state-tax variables +the ``no_part_b`` propagation trace shows moving, and whether any output moved. + + python reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/explain_households.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import re +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +HOUSEHOLDS = HERE / "verification/sweep_part_b_households.json" +OUT = HERE / "verification/part_b_households.csv" +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE_PREFIX = re.compile(r"^[a-z]{2}_") +# Engine variables with a two-letter prefix that are not state programs. +NOT_STATE = ("tax_", "is_", "ca_oc_") + + +def main() -> None: + households = json.loads(HOUSEHOLDS.read_text())["households"] + rows = [] + for h in households: + if not h["medicare_eligible"]: + continue + person = h["baseline_person"] + base, no_b = h["baseline_units"], h["readings"]["no_part_b"]["units"] + outputs = h["baseline"] + no_b_outputs = h["readings"]["no_part_b"]["outputs"] + trace = h["readings"]["no_part_b"]["trace"] + state_vars = sorted( + r["variable"] + for r in trace + if STATE_PREFIX.match(r["variable"]) + and not r["variable"].startswith(NOT_STATE) + ) + itemizes_moved = any(r["variable"] == "tax_unit_itemizes" for r in trace) + moved = sorted( + v + for v in outputs + if ( + round(no_b_outputs[v]) != round(outputs[v]) + if v.endswith("_eligible") + else abs(no_b_outputs[v] - outputs[v]) > 1.0 + ) + ) + rows.append( + { + "scenario_id": h["scenario_id"], + "state": h["state"], + "medicare_eligible_people": sum( + person["is_medicare_eligible"].values() + ), + "part_b_premium": sum(person["medicare_part_b_premium"].values()), + "msp_part_b_coverage": sum( + person["msp_part_b_premium_coverage"].values() + ), + "federal_itemizes": bool(base["tax_unit_itemizes"]), + "federal_itemizes_without_part_b": ( + (not bool(base["tax_unit_itemizes"])) + if itemizes_moved + else bool(base["tax_unit_itemizes"]) + ), + "medical_expense_deduction": base["medical_expense_deduction"], + "medical_expense_deduction_without_part_b": no_b[ + "medical_expense_deduction" + ], + "federal_output": outputs.get(FEDERAL), + "state_output": outputs.get(STATE), + "snap": outputs.get("snap"), + "snap_without_part_b": no_b_outputs.get("snap"), + "state_variables_moving": ";".join(state_vars), + "outputs_moved": ";".join(moved), + } + ) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(OUT, index=False) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 100): + print( + table.drop(columns=["state_variables_moving"]) + .round(2) + .to_string(index=False) + ) + print() + print( + table[["scenario_id", "state", "state_variables_moving"]].to_string( + index=False + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..12d050d4 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,459 @@ +"""Score the frozen run under each combination of the Part B and SALT proposals. + +Copies the frozen run (predictions, references, scenarios, exclusions) to scratch +directories and never writes the snapshot. Each copy is scored with ``python -m +policybench.cli analyze``, the command the freeze runs, and the dashboard payloads are +compared. The cases: + +``published`` + The exclusion record unchanged. It must reproduce the published payload's scoring: + every modelStats field except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, and + programStats, heatmap, globalWeights and failureModes exactly. +``part_b`` + This audit's records if PolicyEngine/policybench#191 is not adopted: scenario_114's + Virginia output and the standalone Part B record for its federal output. +``salt`` + #191's three records alone (022, 081 and 114 federal), as #191 scored them. +``salt_and_part_b`` + #191's three records and this audit's Virginia record. + +Each case also recomputes the legacy household impact summary that the freeze writes +beside the analyze output (``impact_summary_by_model.csv``, pinned in the snapshot +manifest), with ``scripts/freeze_snapshot.household_impact_summary_by_model`` on the +scored reference; the published case must reproduce the frozen file. + +``--weights-check`` also scores a copy whose eligibility impact weights are the ones +policyengine-us 2.15.17 computes (verification/sweep_part_b.csv) instead of the +published ones, which the 2026-09-29 rebuild did not recompute. It reports whether any +compared payload value changes and how the legacy impact summary moves. + +#191's records are read from ``verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json``, a +copy of ``reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json`` at #191's head +8af912a0, checked against its sha256. + + PYTHONPATH= /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py \\ + --scratch --weights-check +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +PROPOSED = HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json" +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_part_b.csv" +OUT_DIR = HERE / "verification" +SALT_COPY = HERE / "verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json" +SALT_SHA256 = "3c330177762c46fa5c52b02f9f943e9d5a65e15855280b64e9b462ab27413272" +FROZEN_IMPACT = RUN / "analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv" +RUN_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +METRICS = ( + "exact", + "within1pct", + "within5pct", + "within10pct", + "score", + "outputGroupScore", +) +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") +RANKED = ("exact", "within1pct", "score") + + +def always_zero(run_dir: Path) -> dict[str, float]: + """The always-zero baseline, as paper_results._always_zero_weighted_rates scores it.""" + import numpy as np + + from policybench.analysis import weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model + from policybench.reference_exclusions import scored_reference_for + from policybench.spec import get_output_ids, output_group_id + + truth, _ = scored_reference_for(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + headline = set(get_output_ids("us", "headline")) + truth = truth[truth["variable"].map(output_group_id).isin(headline)] + truth = truth.reset_index(drop=True) + truth["scenario_id"] = truth["scenario_id"].astype(str) + scenarios = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "scenarios.csv") + market = dict( + zip( + scenarios["scenario_id"].astype(str), + pd.to_numeric(scenarios["total_income"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0), + ) + ) + predictions = truth[["scenario_id", "variable"]].copy() + predictions["model"] = "Always zero" + predictions["prediction"] = np.zeros(len(truth)) + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model(truth, predictions, market, country="us") + return { + "exact": float(scored["weighted_exact"].mean()) * 100, + "within1pct": float(scored["weighted_within_1pct"].mean()) * 100, + } + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def salt_records() -> list[dict]: + if sha256(SALT_COPY) != SALT_SHA256: + raise SystemExit(f"{SALT_COPY} does not match #191's file at 8af912a0") + return json.loads(SALT_COPY.read_text())["exclusions"] + + +def legacy_impact_summary(run_dir: Path) -> pd.DataFrame: + """The freeze's impact_summary_by_model.csv, computed on a staged copy.""" + from policybench.reference_exclusions import scored_reference_for + + path = ROOT / "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("freeze_snapshot", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + truth, _ = scored_reference_for(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + predictions = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz", low_memory=False) + return module.household_impact_summary_by_model(truth, predictions) + + +def legacy_impact_change(base: pd.DataFrame, case: pd.DataFrame) -> dict: + a = base.set_index("model")["mean_impact_score"] + b = case.set_index("model")["mean_impact_score"].reindex(a.index) + rank_a = a.rank(ascending=False, method="min") + rank_b = b.rank(ascending=False, method="min") + moved = rank_a != rank_b + return { + "mean_impact_score_delta": { + "min": float((b - a).min()), + "max": float((b - a).max()), + }, + "models_changing_rank": int(moved.sum()), + "rank_changes": { + model: {"published": int(rank_a[model]), "case": int(rank_b[model])} + for model in a.index[moved] + }, + } + + +def stage(target: Path, extra: list[dict], weights: pd.DataFrame | None = None) -> Path: + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, target / name) + if extra: + record = json.loads((target / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend(extra) + (target / "reference_exclusions.json").write_text( + json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + if weights is not None: + reference = pd.read_csv(target / "reference_outputs.csv") + keyed = weights.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["baseline_impact_weight"] + keys = list(zip(reference["scenario_id"], reference["variable"])) + has = reference["impact_weight"].notna() + reference.loc[has, "impact_weight"] = [ + float(keyed[k]) for k, h in zip(keys, has) if h + ] + reference.to_csv(target / "reference_outputs.csv", index=False) + # The analyzer checks the CSV against the digest its sidecar pins; repin the + # scratch copy's sidecar to the rewritten CSV. + meta_path = target / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) + meta["reference_csv_sha256"] = sha256(target / "reference_outputs.csv") + meta_path.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2) + "\n") + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + out = run_dir / "analysis" + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(out), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + return json.loads(dashboard.read_text())["countries"]["us"] + + +def payload_differences(a: dict, b: dict) -> list[str]: + """Compared payload values that differ (modelStats less the overlaid fields).""" + out = [key for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS if a[key] != b[key]] + x = {m["model"]: m for m in a["modelStats"]} + y = {m["model"]: m for m in b["modelStats"]} + if set(x) != set(y): + return out + ["modelStats: model sets differ"] + for model, row in x.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != y[model].get(field): + out.append(f"modelStats.{model}.{field}") + return out + + +def check_reproduces_published(base: dict) -> None: + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + diffs = payload_differences(published, base) + if diffs: + raise SystemExit( + f"unchanged copy does not reproduce the published payload: {diffs[:10]}" + ) + + +def ranks(frame: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> pd.Series: + return frame[metric].rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +def compare(base: dict, case: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + b = pd.DataFrame(case["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in METRICS: + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_case"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + for metric in RANKED: + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] = ranks(a, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_case"] = ranks(b, metric) + rows["n_published"] = a["n"] + rows["n_case"] = b["n"] + return rows.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + + +def program_rows(base: dict, case: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + b = pd.DataFrame(case["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in ("exact", "score", "n"): + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_case"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + return rows[(rows.filter(like="_delta").abs() > 1e-9).any(axis=1)] + + +def rank_changes(models: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> dict: + return { + model: { + "published": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_published"]), + "case": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_case"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row[f"{metric}_rank_published"] != row[f"{metric}_rank_case"] + } + + +def summarize( + name: str, records: list[dict], base: dict, case: dict, zero: dict +) -> dict: + models = compare(base, case) + leader = models.sort_values("exact_rank_case").index[0] + return { + "case": name, + "exclusions_added": [f"{r['scenario_id']}/{r['variable']}" for r in records], + "scored_outputs": { + "published": int(models["n_published"].iloc[0]), + "case": int(models["n_case"].iloc[0]), + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["exact_delta"].max()), + "mean": float(models["exact_delta"].mean()), + }, + "within1pct_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["within1pct_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["within1pct_delta"].max()), + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": float(models["score_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["score_delta"].max()), + }, + **{f"{m}_rank_changes": rank_changes(models, m) for m in RANKED}, + "always_zero_baseline": zero, + "leader": leader, + "leader_exact": { + "published": float(models.loc[leader, "exact_published"]), + "case": float(models.loc[leader, "exact_case"]), + }, + "leader_margin_over_always_zero_exact": { + "published": float( + models.loc[leader, "exact_published"] - zero["published"]["exact"] + ), + "case": float(models.loc[leader, "exact_case"] - zero["case"]["exact"]), + }, + "programs": program_rows(base, case).round(6).reset_index().to_dict("records"), + } + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--weights-check", action="store_true") + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + + proposal = json.loads(PROPOSED.read_text()) + va = proposal["exclusions"] + federal = [c["record"] for c in proposal["conditional_on_salt_decision"]] + salt = salt_records() + cases = { + "part_b": va + federal, + "salt": salt, + "salt_and_part_b": salt + va, + } + + base_dir = stage(scratch / "published", []) + base = analyze(base_dir) + check_reproduces_published(base) + zero_published = always_zero(base_dir) + impact_base = legacy_impact_summary(base_dir) + frozen_impact = pd.read_csv(FROZEN_IMPACT) + pd.testing.assert_frame_equal( + impact_base.reset_index(drop=True), + frozen_impact, + check_exact=False, + rtol=0, + atol=1e-12, + ) + + summaries, tables = [], {} + for name, records in cases.items(): + run_dir = stage(scratch / name, records) + case = analyze(run_dir) + zero = {"published": zero_published, "case": always_zero(run_dir)} + summary = summarize(name, records, base, case, zero) + summary["legacy_impact_summary"] = legacy_impact_change( + impact_base, legacy_impact_summary(run_dir) + ) + summaries.append(summary) + tables[name] = compare(base, case) + + # The marginal effect of the Virginia record on top of #191's records. + salt_models = tables["salt"] + both = tables["salt_and_part_b"] + marginal = pd.DataFrame( + { + "exact_salt": salt_models["exact_case"], + "exact_salt_and_part_b": both["exact_case"], + "exact_delta": both["exact_case"] - salt_models["exact_case"], + "rank_salt": salt_models["exact_rank_case"], + "rank_salt_and_part_b": both["exact_rank_case"], + "score_delta": both["score_case"] - salt_models["score_case"], + } + ) + marginal_summary = { + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(marginal["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(marginal["exact_delta"].max()), + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + model: { + "salt": int(r.rank_salt), + "salt_and_part_b": int(r.rank_salt_and_part_b), + } + for model, r in marginal.iterrows() + if r.rank_salt != r.rank_salt_and_part_b + }, + } + + weights_check = None + if args.weights_check: + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP) + run_dir = stage(scratch / "weights_2_15_17", [], weights=sweep) + moved = int( + ( + sweep["reference_impact_weight"].notna() + & ( + ( + sweep["reference_impact_weight"] + - sweep["baseline_impact_weight"] + ).abs() + > 1e-3 + ) + ).sum() + ) + diffs = payload_differences(base, analyze(run_dir)) + weights_check = { + "impact_weights_replaced": moved, + "payload_differences": diffs, + "legacy_impact_summary": legacy_impact_change( + impact_base, legacy_impact_summary(run_dir) + ), + } + + OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + wide = pd.concat( + { + name: table[ + ["exact_case", "exact_rank_case", "score_case", "score_rank_case"] + ] + for name, table in tables.items() + }, + axis=1, + ) + wide.columns = [f"{case}_{col.removesuffix('_case')}" for case, col in wide.columns] + first = tables["part_b"] + wide.insert(0, "exact_published", first["exact_published"]) + wide.insert(1, "exact_rank_published", first["exact_rank_published"]) + wide.insert(2, "score_published", first["score_published"]) + wide.insert(3, "score_rank_published", first["score_rank_published"]) + wide.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv") + marginal.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_marginal.csv") + result = { + "published_reproduced": True, + "legacy_impact_summary_reproduced": True, + "cases": summaries, + "virginia_record_on_top_of_salt": marginal_summary, + "impact_weights_check": weights_check, + } + (OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text( + json.dumps(result, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 100): + print(wide.round(4)) + print(marginal.round(4)) + print(json.dumps(result, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/propose_exclusions.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/propose_exclusions.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2533b939 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/propose_exclusions.py @@ -0,0 +1,391 @@ +"""Draft unlisted-input exclusions for outputs that rest on the engine's assumed Medicare Part B premium. + +Reads the sweep (sweep_part_b.py) and the frozen run's predictions and writes +``proposed_exclusions.json``: one ``reference_depends_on_unlisted_input`` record, in the +format of the frozen run's ``reference_exclusions.json``, for every scored output that +the ``no_part_b`` reading moves by more than the $1 exact-match tolerance (a binary +output, if it flips). + +An output that PolicyEngine/policybench#191 (the state income tax in SALT audit, +reference_audit/2026-10-05 on its branch) already proposes to exclude cannot take a +second record: the loader refuses duplicate keys. For such an output the file gives a +standalone Part B record to install only if #191's record is not adopted. + +The records are a proposal. They change published scores, so they wait for Max's +ruling; ``decided_on`` is the date the proposal was drafted and a release sets it to +the ruling's date. + + PYTHONPATH= /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/propose_exclusions.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import hashlib +import json +import re +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SUMMARY = HERE / "verification/sweep_part_b_summary.json" +HOUSEHOLDS = HERE / "verification/sweep_part_b_households.json" +OUT = HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json" +ANSWERS = HERE / "verification/model_answers.csv" +MODEL_META = ROOT / "app/src/modelMeta.ts" +# PolicyEngine/policybench#191 at the head this audit read. +SALT_PR = "PolicyEngine/policybench#191" +SALT_HEAD = "8af912a062dd7ae1373de4c043ae2727d3406930" +# reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json at SALT_HEAD, kept here so the +# script does not depend on #191's branch. +SALT_COPY = HERE / "verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json" +SALT_SHA256 = "3c330177762c46fa5c52b02f9f943e9d5a65e15855280b64e9b462ab27413272" +SALT_DECISION = "d963" +DRAFTED_ON = "2026-10-05" +ENGINE = "policyengine-us 2.15.17" +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +UNLISTED_INPUT = ( + "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026, which the " + "medical expense deductions count; policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible " + "person as enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, so " + "medicare_enrolled follows is_medicare_eligible) and adds the modeled premium " + "(medicare_part_b_premium) to medical expenses, and the household data never set " + "either" +) +SALT_READINGS = { + "estimate": "the withholding estimate the reference uses", + "liability": "the household's state liability", + "zero": "no state income tax paid", + "zero_no_local_sales": "no state income tax paid and no local sales tax estimate", +} + + +def money(value: float) -> str: + return f"${value:,.2f}" + + +def listed(value: float) -> str: + """A listed input, as the prompt prints it (whole dollars).""" + return f"${value:,.0f}" + + +def model_labels() -> dict[str, str]: + """The dashboard's display names (app/src/modelMeta.ts MODEL_LABELS).""" + text = MODEL_META.read_text() + block = text.split("export const MODEL_LABELS", 1)[1].split("};", 1)[0] + return dict(re.findall(r'"([^"]+)":\s*"([^"]+)"', block)) + + +def salt_proposal() -> dict: + if hashlib.sha256(SALT_COPY.read_bytes()).hexdigest() != SALT_SHA256: + raise SystemExit(f"{SALT_COPY} does not match #191's file at {SALT_HEAD}") + return json.loads(SALT_COPY.read_text()) + + +def model_answers(rows: list[dict], household: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Every model's answer on each moved output, tagged with the readings it matches.""" + predictions = pd.read_csv(RUN / "predictions.csv.gz", low_memory=False) + out = [] + for row in rows: + sid, variable = row["scenario_id"], row["variable"] + values = {"frozen": row["reference"]} + for key, cell in household[sid]["grid"].items(): + values[key] = cell["outputs"][variable] + sub = predictions[ + (predictions["scenario_id"] == sid) & (predictions["variable"] == variable) + ] + for answer in sub.itertuples(): + matches = ( + [] + if pd.isna(answer.prediction) + else [ + key + for key, value in values.items() + if abs(float(answer.prediction) - value) <= TOLERANCE + ] + ) + out.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "variable": variable, + "model": answer.model, + "prediction": answer.prediction, + "within_1_of": ";".join(matches), + } + ) + return pd.DataFrame(out).sort_values(["scenario_id", "variable", "prediction"]) + + +def within(answers: pd.DataFrame, sid: str, variable: str, reading: str) -> list[dict]: + sub = answers[ + (answers["scenario_id"] == sid) + & (answers["variable"] == variable) + & answers["within_1_of"].str.split(";").apply(lambda keys: reading in keys) + ] + return [ + {"model": r.model, "prediction": float(r.prediction)} for r in sub.itertuples() + ] + + +def answer_text(models: list[dict]) -> str: + if not models: + return "no model" + labels = model_labels() + return " and ".join( + f"{labels[m['model']]} ({money(m['prediction'])})" for m in models + ) + + +def record(row: dict, household: dict, summary: dict, answers: pd.DataFrame) -> dict: + sid, variable = row["scenario_id"], row["variable"] + base = household["baseline_units"] + person = household["baseline_person"] + no_b = household["readings"]["no_part_b"]["units"] + grid = household["grid"] + head_age = int(person["age"]["head"]) + premium = sum(person["medicare_part_b_premium"].values()) + other = sum(person["other_medical_expenses"].values()) + agi = base["adjusted_gross_income"] + is_state = variable == STATE + alternative = grid["no_part_b|estimate"]["outputs"][variable] + not_enrolled = household["readings"]["not_enrolled"]["outputs"][variable] + assert abs(alternative - row["value"]) < 1e-6 + assert abs(not_enrolled - alternative) < 1e-6 + # The note says no income-related amount would apply at 2026 MAGI. + irmaa = household["readings"]["irmaa_from_2026_income"]["person"] + assert ( + irmaa["gross_medicare_part_b_premium"] + == person["gross_medicare_part_b_premium"] + ) + assert person["gross_medicare_part_b_premium"] == person["base_part_b_premium"] + salt_values = { + part_b: { + salt: grid[f"{part_b}|{salt}"]["outputs"][variable] + for salt in SALT_READINGS + } + for part_b in ("modeled", "no_part_b") + } + itemizes = {key: bool(cell["itemizes"]) for key, cell in grid.items()} + where = ( + ", and Virginia's itemized deductions, which start from the federal itemized " + "deductions (va_itemized_deductions), carry it too" + if is_state + else "" + ) + alternative_reading = ( + "The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment and no Medicare Part B premium, and its " + "rules say to treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and not to infer unlisted " + "expenses or health coverage. The reference counts a modeled Part B premium as a " + "medical expense: policyengine-us treats the head (age " + f"{head_age}, so Medicare-eligible) as enrolled because " + "takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true, and " + "medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums adds medicare_part_b_premium, the " + f"2026 standard premium of $202.90 a month, {money(premium)}, to the listed " + f"{listed(other)} of other medical expenses. The household itemizes, so the " + "federal medical expense deduction (26 U.S.C. 213(a): expenses above 7.5% of " + f"AGI) counts it{where}. The prompt also says to assume program take-up when " + "required, and a reader who takes a 69-year-old with Social Security " + "retirement income to be enrolled in Part B and paying the standard premium " + "gets the frozen value. But the benchmark sets take-up only for the programs " + "its household data list (Medicaid, SSI, the ACA credit, the DC property tax " + "credit, the EITC, SNAP and tax filing; policybench.scenarios." + "DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS), and Medicare is not among them; the Medicare request " + "asks only whether the head is eligible; and the more specific rules against " + "inferring unlisted expenses or health coverage point the other way. Read with " + f"no Part B premium paid, the deduction falls by {money(premium)} and the " + "output is the alternative value." + ) + msp_households = sorted( + set(summary["medicare_households"]) - set(summary["part_b_households"]) + ) + assert {sid for sid, _ in summary["msp_part_b_coverage_people"]} == set( + msp_households + ) + note = ( + "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with each person's Medicare Part B " + "premium at 0, and again with Medicare enrollment off " + "(reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py, on " + "policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all " + f"{summary['scored_outputs']:,} scored references). Of " + f"{summary['medicare_eligible_people']} Medicare-eligible people in " + f"{len(summary['medicare_households'])} households, the engine charges the " + f"premium in {len(summary['part_b_households'])} (Medicare Savings Program " + f"coverage pays it for the {len(summary['msp_part_b_coverage_people'])} eligible " + f"people in the other {len(msp_households)}); only this household's two tax " + "outputs move, under either reading. The " + f"federal medical expense deduction is {money(base['medical_expense_deduction'])} " + f"in the reference ({money(base['itemized_medical_expenses'])} of expenses less " + f"7.5% of {money(agi)} AGI) and {money(no_b['medical_expense_deduction'])} " + "without the premium; the household itemizes under both. " + ) + no_b = salt_values["no_part_b"] + if is_state: + assert abs(no_b["estimate"] - no_b["liability"]) < 1e-6 + assert abs(no_b["zero"] - no_b["zero_no_local_sales"]) < 1e-6 + assert len({round(v, 6) for v in salt_values["modeled"].values()}) == 1 + note += ( + "The output also depends on the state income tax in the federal SALT " + f"deduction, which {SALT_PR} proposes to treat as an unlisted input " + f"(decision {SALT_DECISION}), through the federal itemization election, which " + "Virginia follows (va_deductions reads tax_unit_itemizes). Without the " + f"premium the output is {money(no_b['estimate'])} under both the " + "withholding estimate and the liability; with no state income tax paid it " + f"is {money(no_b['zero'])}, with or without the local sales " + "tax estimate, because the household then takes the federal and Virginia " + "standard deductions. With the premium it is " + f"{money(salt_values['modeled']['estimate'])} under all four readings. " + ) + else: + note += ( + "Under the readings of the state income tax in SALT that " + f"{SALT_PR} sets out, without the premium the output is " + f"{money(salt_values['no_part_b']['liability'])} under the liability and " + f"{money(salt_values['no_part_b']['zero'])} with no state income tax paid " + "(the household then takes the standard deduction). " + ) + note += ( + "The premium is the standard premium: the engine reads the income-related " + "adjustment from MAGI two years earlier, which no household sets, and at this " + f"household's 2026 MAGI ({money(agi + base['tax_exempt_interest_income'])}) none " + "would apply. " + ) + alt_models = within(answers, sid, variable, "no_part_b|estimate") + frozen_models = within(answers, sid, variable, "frozen") + sentence = ( + f"{answer_text(alt_models)} answered within $1 of the alternative value, and " + f"{answer_text(frozen_models)} within $1 of the frozen value." + ) + note += sentence[0].upper() + sentence[1:] + if not is_state: + liability_models = within(answers, sid, variable, "no_part_b|liability") + literal_models = within(answers, sid, variable, "no_part_b|zero") + note += ( + f" {answer_text(liability_models)} answered within $1 of the value with no " + "premium and the liability, and " + f"{answer_text(literal_models)} within $1 of the value with no premium and " + "no state income tax paid." + ) + return { + "scenario_id": sid, + "variable": variable, + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": alternative_reading, + "frozen_value": row["reference"], + "alternative_value": alternative, + "engine_version": ENGINE, + "decided_on": DRAFTED_ON, + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": UNLISTED_INPUT, + "note": note, + "_readings": { + "salt_by_part_b": salt_values, + "itemizes": itemizes, + "not_enrolled": not_enrolled, + }, + } + + +def main() -> None: + summary = json.loads(SUMMARY.read_text()) + households = { + h["scenario_id"]: h for h in json.loads(HOUSEHOLDS.read_text())["households"] + } + if summary["scored_reference_mismatches"]: + raise SystemExit("the sweep's baseline does not reproduce the references") + frozen = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())["exclusions"] + frozen_keys = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in frozen} + salt = salt_proposal() + salt_keys = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in salt["exclusions"]} + + moved = summary["moved"]["no_part_b"] + for reading in ("not_enrolled", "not_enrolled_direct"): + other = {(m["scenario_id"], m["variable"]) for m in summary["moved"][reading]} + if other != {(m["scenario_id"], m["variable"]) for m in moved}: + raise SystemExit(f"{reading} moves a different set of outputs") + answers = model_answers(moved, households) + answers.to_csv(ANSWERS, index=False) + + exclusions, conditional, already = [], [], [] + for row in moved: + key = (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) + if key in frozen_keys: + already.append(key) + continue + entry = record(row, households[row["scenario_id"]], summary, answers) + readings = entry.pop("_readings") + if key in salt_keys: + salt_record = salt_keys[key] + conditional.append( + { + "record": entry, + "readings": readings, + "install_if": ( + f"{SALT_PR}'s record for this output (decision {SALT_DECISION}) " + "is not adopted. The output then still rests on the Part B " + "premium and needs this record." + ), + "if_salt_record_adopted": ( + f"{SALT_PR}'s record already excludes the output, and its note " + "already gives the values without the premium (it quotes " + f"{money(readings['salt_by_part_b']['no_part_b']['estimate'])}, " + f"{money(readings['salt_by_part_b']['no_part_b']['liability'])} " + f"and {money(readings['salt_by_part_b']['no_part_b']['zero'])}). " + "A release adds the unlisted input to that record's " + "unlisted_input text: '; also " + UNLISTED_INPUT + "'." + ), + "salt_record_frozen_value": salt_record["frozen_value"], + "salt_record_alternative_value": salt_record["alternative_value"], + } + ) + else: + entry["_readings"] = readings + exclusions.append(entry) + if already: + raise SystemExit(f"already-excluded outputs moved; add note text: {already}") + + readings = {} + for entry in exclusions: + readings[f"{entry['scenario_id']}/{entry['variable']}"] = entry.pop("_readings") + payload = { + "schema_version": 1, + "status": ( + f"proposed {DRAFTED_ON}; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's " + "ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to " + "the ruling's date." + ), + "basis": ( + "policybench/reference_exclusions.py: an output is excluded for every model " + "when its reference depends on an engine input the prompt never listed and " + "a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way." + ), + "salt_proposal": { + "pr": SALT_PR, + "head": SALT_HEAD, + "decision": SALT_DECISION, + "outputs": [f"{s}/{v}" for s, v in salt_keys], + }, + "exclusions": exclusions, + "conditional_on_salt_decision": conditional, + "already_excluded": [], + "readings": readings, + "readings_moving_no_further_output": [ + "not_enrolled", + "not_enrolled_direct", + "irmaa_from_2026_income", + ], + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=1) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(payload, indent=1)) + print(answers.to_string(index=False)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..484f09a3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py @@ -0,0 +1,624 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference without the engine's assumed Medicare enrollment. + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 counts a Medicare Part B premium in medical expenses for every +person it treats as enrolled in Medicare. ``medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums`` +uses ``health_insurance_premiums`` when that input is set; otherwise it adds +``health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b`` and ``medicare_part_b_premium * +medicare_enrolled``. ``medicare_enrolled`` adds ``takes_up_medicare_if_eligible``, whose +default is True, for everyone ``is_medicare_eligible`` (age 65, or 24 months of Social +Security disability benefits). ``medicare_part_b_premium`` is the gross premium (the +$202.90 monthly base for 2026 plus an income-related amount on MAGI from two years +earlier) less Medicare Savings Program coverage. No PolicyBench household sets any of +these inputs, and no prompt states Medicare enrollment or a Part B premium. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes), on households built by +``Scenario.to_pe_household``. The script first recomputes every output and impact weight +and checks them against the published reference CSV. It then reruns every household +under each reading: + +``no_part_b`` + Each person's ``medicare_part_b_premium`` is 0: no Part B premium is paid, the + prompt's "treat any unlisted numeric input as 0". Enrollment itself is unchanged. +``not_enrolled`` + Each person's ``takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`` is False, so nobody is enrolled: + the prompt's "do not infer ... health coverage". This removes every channel that + reads enrollment, not only the Part B premium. +``not_enrolled_direct`` + Each person's ``medicare_enrolled`` is False. A differential check on + ``not_enrolled`` through the other input; the two must agree on every output. +``irmaa_from_2026_income`` + The income-related Part B amount read on the household's 2026 MAGI (AGI plus + tax-exempt interest) instead of the unset 2024 MAGI, which the engine computes as 0. + A sensitivity check on the premium's size, not a reading the prompt supports. + +For every household with a Medicare-eligible person it also records each person's +Medicare variables and a propagation trace: every engine variable, at every 2026 +period the simulation computed, whose value differs between the reference and the +``no_part_b`` or ``not_enrolled`` simulation. The trace lists the consumers that fire, +which the static list of formulas that read the premium cannot show. + +Households with an output that moves are also run on a grid of the Part B readings and +the four readings of the state income tax in the federal SALT deduction that +reference_audit/2026-10-05 (PolicyEngine/policybench#191) proposes: the engine's +withholding estimate, the state liability (iterated to a fixed point), none paid, and +none paid without the engine's local sales tax estimate. + +Run from a policybench checkout with the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv: + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/scripts/sweep_part_b.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import copy +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +YEAR = 2026 +PERIOD = str(YEAR) +BINARY_SUFFIXES = ("_eligible",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +TRACE_TOLERANCE = 1e-6 +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} +MAX_ITERATIONS = 25 +CONVERGED = 0.005 +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + +READINGS = { + "no_part_b": {"people": {"medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0}}, + "not_enrolled": {"people": {"takes_up_medicare_if_eligible": False}}, + "not_enrolled_direct": {"people": {"medicare_enrolled": False}}, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": {}, # tax-unit input set per household below +} +TRACED_READINGS = ("no_part_b", "not_enrolled") +PART_B_GRID = ("modeled", "no_part_b", "not_enrolled") +SALT_GRID = ("estimate", "liability", "zero", "zero_no_local_sales") + +PERSON_DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "age", + "is_medicare_eligible", + "takes_up_medicare_if_eligible", + "medicare_enrolled", + "base_part_b_premium", + "gross_medicare_part_b_premium", + "msp_part_b_premium_coverage", + "medicare_part_b_premium", + "health_insurance_premiums", + "health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b", + "medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums", + "other_medical_expenses", + "base_part_a_premium", + "medicare_part_a_premium", + "income_adjusted_part_d_premium_surcharge", + "medicare_cost", + "is_usda_elderly", + "is_usda_disabled", + "social_security_disability", + "months_receiving_social_security_disability", +) +TAX_UNIT_DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior", + "adjusted_gross_income", + "tax_exempt_interest_income", + "itemized_medical_expenses", + "medical_expense_deduction", + "tax_unit_itemizes", + "standard_deduction", + "itemized_taxable_income_deductions", + "salt_deduction", + "state_withheld_income_tax", + "local_sales_tax", +) +SPM_UNIT_DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "snap", + "snap_excess_medical_expense_deduction", + "snap_net_income", + "snap_gross_income", +) + +_SYSTEM = None + + +def _assemble_fixes() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="part_b_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _system(): + global _SYSTEM + if _SYSTEM is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + path = _assemble_fixes() / "latest_final.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + _SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + return _SYSTEM + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def _simulate(situation, *, people=None, tax_unit=None): + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + situation = copy.deepcopy(situation) + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for name, value in (people or {}).items(): + person[name] = {PERIOD: value} + tu = situation["tax_units"]["tax_unit"] + for name, value in (tax_unit or {}).items(): + tu[name] = {PERIOD: value} + return Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(), situation=situation) + + +def _total(sim, variable: str) -> float: + return float(np.asarray(sim.calculate(variable, YEAR)).sum()) + + +def _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) -> tuple[dict, dict]: + """Every output and, where the output has one, its impact weight.""" + from policybench.ground_truth import ( + _extract_person_impact_weight, + _extract_person_value, + _impact_weight_variable_for_output, + _pe_variable_for_output, + ) + + values, weights = {}, {} + for variable in variables: + result = sim.calculate(_pe_variable_for_output(variable, "us"), YEAR) + values[variable] = float(_extract_person_value(result, scenario, variable)) + weight_variable = _impact_weight_variable_for_output(variable, "us") + if weight_variable is not None: + weights[variable] = float( + _extract_person_impact_weight( + result, sim.calculate(weight_variable, YEAR), scenario, variable + ) + ) + return values, weights + + +def _person_diagnostics(sim, names) -> dict: + out = {} + for variable in PERSON_DIAGNOSTICS: + values = np.asarray(sim.calculate(variable, YEAR)) + out[variable] = { + name: ( + bool(v) + if values.dtype == bool + else (float(v) if np.issubdtype(values.dtype, np.number) else str(v)) + ) + for name, v in zip(names, values) + } + return out + + +def _unit_diagnostics(sim) -> dict: + out = {variable: _total(sim, variable) for variable in TAX_UNIT_DIAGNOSTICS} + for variable in SPM_UNIT_DIAGNOSTICS: + # Monthly SNAP variables sum to the year when asked for a year. + out[variable] = _total(sim, variable) + return out + + +def _cached(sim) -> dict: + """Every value the simulation computed or was given for a 2026 period.""" + values = {} + for name in sim.tax_benefit_system.variables: + holder = sim.get_holder(name) + for period in holder.get_known_periods(): + if period.start.year != YEAR: + continue + array = holder.get_array(period) + if array is not None: + values[(name, str(period))] = np.asarray(array) + return values + + +def _trace(base: dict, other: dict) -> list[dict]: + """Variables whose 2026 values differ between two simulations.""" + rows = {} + for key in sorted(set(base) | set(other)): + name, period = key + if key not in base or key not in other: + row = rows.setdefault(name, {"variable": name, "max_abs_diff": 0.0}) + row.setdefault("computed_in_one_only", []).append(period) + continue + a, b = base[key], other[key] + if a.shape != b.shape: + continue + if np.issubdtype(a.dtype, np.number) and np.issubdtype(b.dtype, np.number): + diff = np.abs(a.astype(float) - b.astype(float)) + if diff.size and diff.max() > TRACE_TOLERANCE: + row = rows.setdefault(name, {"variable": name, "max_abs_diff": 0.0}) + row["max_abs_diff"] = max(row["max_abs_diff"], float(diff.max())) + row.setdefault("periods", []).append(period) + elif not np.array_equal(a.astype(str), b.astype(str)): + row = rows.setdefault(name, {"variable": name, "max_abs_diff": 0.0}) + row["categorical"] = True + row.setdefault("periods", []).append(period) + return [rows[name] for name in sorted(rows)] + + +def _salt_liability(sim) -> float: + """The SALT audit's liability reading: state plus Maryland county, less NYC.""" + state = _total(sim, STATE) + md_county = _total(sim, "md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + nyc = _total(sim, "nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + return max(0.0, state + md_county - nyc) + + +def _grid_cell(situation, scenario, variables, part_b: str, salt: str) -> dict: + people = { + "modeled": {}, + "no_part_b": READINGS["no_part_b"]["people"], + "not_enrolled": READINGS["not_enrolled"]["people"], + }[part_b] + tax_unit = {} + trace = [] + if salt in ("zero", "zero_no_local_sales"): + tax_unit["state_withheld_income_tax"] = 0.0 + if salt == "zero_no_local_sales": + tax_unit["local_sales_tax"] = 0.0 + sim = _simulate(situation, people=people, tax_unit=tax_unit) + if salt == "liability": + withheld = _salt_liability(sim) + for _ in range(MAX_ITERATIONS): + tax_unit["state_withheld_income_tax"] = withheld + sim = _simulate(situation, people=people, tax_unit=tax_unit) + implied = _salt_liability(sim) + trace.append({"withheld": withheld, "implied": implied}) + if abs(implied - withheld) < CONVERGED: + break + withheld = implied + else: + raise RuntimeError(f"{scenario.id} {part_b}: liability did not converge") + values, _ = _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + return { + "outputs": values, + "itemizes": _total(sim, "tax_unit_itemizes"), + "salt_deduction": _total(sim, "salt_deduction"), + "medical_expense_deduction": _total(sim, "medical_expense_deduction"), + "state_withheld_income_tax": _total(sim, "state_withheld_income_tax"), + "fixed_point_trace": trace, + } + + +def sweep_scenario(job) -> dict: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = job + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = build_situation(scenario) + names = list(situation["people"]) + + base = _simulate(situation) + base_values, base_weights = _outputs(base, scenario, variables) + eligible = bool(np.asarray(base.calculate("is_medicare_eligible", YEAR)).any()) + result = { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "people": names, + "medicare_eligible": eligible, + "baseline": base_values, + "baseline_weights": base_weights, + "baseline_person": _person_diagnostics(base, names), + "baseline_units": _unit_diagnostics(base), + "readings": {}, + } + base_cache = _cached(base) if eligible else None + magi_2026 = _total(base, "adjusted_gross_income") + _total( + base, "tax_exempt_interest_income" + ) + for reading, spec in READINGS.items(): + tax_unit = ( + {"medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior": magi_2026} + if reading == "irmaa_from_2026_income" + else {} + ) + sim = _simulate(situation, people=spec.get("people"), tax_unit=tax_unit) + values, weights = _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + entry = {"outputs": values, "weights": weights} + if eligible: + entry["person"] = _person_diagnostics(sim, names) + entry["units"] = _unit_diagnostics(sim) + if reading in TRACED_READINGS: + entry["trace"] = _trace(base_cache, _cached(sim)) + result["readings"][reading] = entry + + moved = any( + _moved(variable, base_values[variable], r["outputs"][variable]) + for r in result["readings"].values() + for variable in variables + ) + if moved: + result["grid"] = { + f"{part_b}|{salt}": _grid_cell(situation, scenario, variables, part_b, salt) + for part_b in PART_B_GRID + for salt in SALT_GRID + } + return result + + +def _moved(variable: str, base: float, value: float) -> bool: + if variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES): + return round(value) != round(base) + return abs(value - base) > TOLERANCE + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--scenarios", nargs="*") + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=8) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in exclusions} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + if args.scenarios: + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(args.scenarios)] + jobs = [] + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(jobs)} households", flush=True) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = sorted(pool.map(sweep_scenario, jobs), key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for result in results: + sid = result["scenario_id"] + for variable, base in result["baseline"].items(): + ref = float(indexed.loc[(sid, variable), "value"]) + ref_weight = indexed.loc[(sid, variable), "impact_weight"] + entry = excluded.get((sid, variable)) + binary = variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + row = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": result["state"], + "variable": variable, + "medicare_household": result["medicare_eligible"], + "reference": ref, + "baseline": base, + "baseline_matches_reference": ( + round(base) == round(ref) if binary else abs(base - ref) <= 1e-3 + ), + "reference_impact_weight": ( + float(ref_weight) if pd.notna(ref_weight) else None + ), + "baseline_impact_weight": result["baseline_weights"].get(variable), + "excluded": entry is not None, + "excluded_reason": entry["reason_code"] if entry else "", + } + for reading in READINGS: + r = result["readings"][reading] + value = r["outputs"][variable] + row[reading] = value + row[f"{reading}_delta"] = value - base + row[f"{reading}_moved"] = _moved(variable, base, value) + row[f"{reading}_impact_weight"] = r["weights"].get(variable) + rows.append(row) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "sweep_part_b.csv", index=False) + + weight_mismatch = table[ + table["reference_impact_weight"].notna() + & ( + (table["reference_impact_weight"] - table["baseline_impact_weight"]).abs() + > 1e-3 + ) + ] + mismatched = table[~table["baseline_matches_reference"]] + scored_mismatched = mismatched[~mismatched["excluded"]] + medicare_households = [r["scenario_id"] for r in results if r["medicare_eligible"]] + part_b_households = [ + r["scenario_id"] + for r in results + if sum(r["baseline_person"]["medicare_part_b_premium"].values()) > 0 + ] + msp_people = [ + (r["scenario_id"], name) + for r in results + for name, v in r["baseline_person"]["msp_part_b_premium_coverage"].items() + if v > 0 + ] + eligible_people = [ + (r["scenario_id"], name) + for r in results + for name, v in r["baseline_person"]["is_medicare_eligible"].items() + if v + ] + enrollment_matches_eligibility = all( + r["baseline_person"]["medicare_enrolled"][name] + == r["baseline_person"]["is_medicare_eligible"][name] + for r in results + for name in r["people"] + ) + snap_or_eligibility = table[ + table["medicare_household"] + & ( + (table["variable"] == "snap") + | table["variable"].str.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + ) + ] + differential = table[ + (table["not_enrolled"] - table["not_enrolled_direct"]).abs() > 1e-6 + ] + + def moved_rows(reading): + moved = table[table[f"{reading}_moved"]] + return [ + { + "scenario_id": r.scenario_id, + "state": r.state, + "variable": r.variable, + "reference": r.baseline, + "value": getattr(r, reading), + "delta": getattr(r, f"{reading}_delta"), + "excluded": bool(r.excluded), + } + for r in moved.itertuples() + ] + + def weight_moves(reading): + col = f"{reading}_impact_weight" + sub = table[table["baseline_impact_weight"].notna()] + sub = sub[(sub[col] - sub["baseline_impact_weight"]).abs() > 1e-3] + return [ + { + "scenario_id": r.scenario_id, + "variable": r.variable, + "baseline_impact_weight": r.baseline_impact_weight, + "impact_weight": getattr(r, col), + "excluded": bool(r.excluded), + } + for r in sub.itertuples() + ] + + summary = { + "policyengine_us": engine, + "households": len(results), + "outputs": len(table), + "scored_outputs": int((~table["excluded"]).sum()), + "scored_reference_mismatches": scored_mismatched[ + ["scenario_id", "variable", "reference", "baseline"] + ].to_dict("records"), + "excluded_outputs_differing_from_frozen_value": int( + mismatched["excluded"].sum() + ), + "impact_weight_mismatches": weight_mismatch[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "variable", + "reference_impact_weight", + "baseline_impact_weight", + ] + ].to_dict("records"), + "medicare_eligible_people": len(eligible_people), + "medicare_households": medicare_households, + "part_b_households": part_b_households, + "msp_part_b_coverage_people": msp_people, + "enrollment_equals_eligibility_in_reference": enrollment_matches_eligibility, + "not_enrolled_vs_direct_differences": differential[ + ["scenario_id", "variable", "not_enrolled", "not_enrolled_direct"] + ].to_dict("records"), + "moved": {reading: moved_rows(reading) for reading in READINGS}, + "impact_weight_moves": {reading: weight_moves(reading) for reading in READINGS}, + "snap_and_eligibility_outputs_in_medicare_households": snap_or_eligibility[ + ["scenario_id", "state", "variable", "excluded", "baseline"] + + [reading for reading in READINGS] + ].to_dict("records"), + } + (out_dir / "sweep_part_b_summary.json").write_text( + json.dumps(summary, indent=1) + "\n" + ) + (out_dir / "sweep_part_b_households.json").write_text( + json.dumps({"policyengine_us": engine, "households": results}, indent=1) + "\n" + ) + + print( + f"baseline: {len(table)} outputs, {summary['scored_outputs']} scored; " + f"{len(scored_mismatched)} scored outputs differ from the published reference; " + f"{len(weight_mismatch)} impact weights differ" + ) + print( + f"Medicare-eligible: {len(eligible_people)} people in " + f"{len(medicare_households)} households; Part B premium in " + f"{len(part_b_households)} households; MSP Part B coverage for " + f"{len(msp_people)} people; enrollment equals eligibility: " + f"{enrollment_matches_eligibility}" + ) + print(f"not_enrolled vs not_enrolled_direct differences: {len(differential)}") + with pd.option_context("display.width", 220, "display.max_rows", 500): + for reading in READINGS: + moved = summary["moved"][reading] + scored = sum(not m["excluded"] for m in moved) + print(f"\n{reading}: {len(moved)} outputs move ({scored} scored)") + for m in moved: + print( + f" {m['scenario_id']} {m['state']} {m['variable']}: " + f"{m['reference']:,.2f} -> {m['value']:,.2f} " + f"({m['delta']:+,.2f}){' [excluded]' if m['excluded'] else ''}" + ) + weights = summary["impact_weight_moves"][reading] + print(f" impact weights moved: {len(weights)}") + print("\nSNAP and eligibility outputs in Medicare households (any change):") + changed = snap_or_eligibility[ + np.column_stack( + [ + ( + snap_or_eligibility[reading] - snap_or_eligibility["baseline"] + ).abs() + > 1e-6 + for reading in READINGS + ] + ).any(axis=1) + ] + print(changed.to_string(index=False) if len(changed) else " none") + for result in results: + if "grid" in result: + print(f"\n{result['scenario_id']} grid (federal, state, itemizes):") + for key, cell in result["grid"].items(): + o = cell["outputs"] + print( + f" {key:32s} {o.get(FEDERAL, float('nan')):>12,.2f} " + f"{o.get(STATE, float('nan')):>10,.2f} {cell['itemizes']:.0f}" + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/independent_reviews.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/independent_reviews.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..162e551c --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/independent_reviews.json @@ -0,0 +1,355 @@ +{ + "workflow_run": "wf_2be49071-45a", + "run_on": "2026-10-05", + "reviewed_head": "f3dbb02001c9c65c457e8b03edecc90f161b8799", + "note": "Four independent reviewers in a Claude Code workflow (Opus 5.5), each with its own scratch directory under /private/tmp, which is not kept. Each read the engine source and recomputed independently. The structured reports are verbatim; the README's 'Verify' step says how each should_fix finding was handled.", + "reviews": [ + { + "key": "mechanism", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_issues", + "summary": "I read the 2.15.17 source and confirmed every link of the claimed mechanism. medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums returns where(health_insurance_premiums != 0, health_insurance_premiums, health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled). health_insurance_premiums has no formula (input only, with an uprating parameter), and no scenario sets it. medicare_enrolled has defined_for = is_medicare_eligible and adds = [takes_up_medicare_if_eligible]. takes_up_medicare_if_eligible has default_value = True, and PolicyBench's DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS does not set it. is_medicare_eligible is true at age 65 or over (min_age 65), or with SSDI and enough months on it. base_part_b_premium = $202.90 (base_premium.yaml for 2026-01-01) x 12 = $2,434.80. gross_medicare_part_b_premium = base + 12 x IRMAA.calc(medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior). That MAGI is AGI plus tax-exempt interest for period.offset(-2) = 2024. Every scenario's inputs are keyed '2026' only, so computed 2024 AGI is 0 for all households, and the first IRMAA bracket for every filing status is threshold 0, amount 0. msp_part_b_premium_coverage pays the monthly standard premium when enrolled and MSP income- and asset-eligible. medicare_part_b_premium (defined_for medicare_enrolled) = max(gross - MSP, 0).\n\nlatest_final is latest_conventions (nine parameter-only modules) plus latest_md_local_output_scope (the state-output list). None of it touches any medical, Medicare, premium or SPM-premium variable. The SNAP hold covers standard, shelter and utility amounts, not excess_medical_expense.\n\nStatic enumeration: I grepped the package (variables, parameters and reforms, tests excluded) and built a consumer graph. Directly or downstream, the seeds reach these outputs: federal income tax and refundable credits (via tax_unit_itemizes), many states' income taxes, NYC local tax, SNAP, Medicaid eligibility (medically needy), CHIP eligibility (disqualifying coverage), and SNAP-categorical eligibility (WIC, school meals, Head Start). The SPM premium aggregates, the Part A and Part D premiums, the WA property tax exemption, the ND renters refund, PR, and the ACA PTC (not in the federal refundable-credits list) reach none.\n\nI recomputed scenario_114 to the cent from engine intermediates and parameters:\n- Federal, with the premium: itemized medical expenses $12,434.80 less the floor (7.5% x $106,572.56 = $7,992.94) gives a deduction of $4,441.86; total itemized $24,787.23 against a standard deduction of $18,150; taxable income $72,807.33; tax $10,729.61 (22% bracket, top $105,700).\n- Federal, without it: deduction $2,007.06; itemized $22,352.43, still itemizing ($11,265.27 if itemizing vs $11,969.80 if not); taxable income $75,242.13; tax $11,265.27. Delta $535.66 = 0.22 x $2,434.80.\n- Virginia: VA AGI $86,743.77; itemized deductions $19,419.94 vs $16,985.14; exemptions $930 + $800; taxable income $65,593.83 vs $68,028.63; tax 720 + 5.75% x (TI - 17,000) = $3,514.15 vs $3,654.15. Delta $140.00 = 0.0575 x $2,434.80.\n- va_deductions = where(tax_unit_itemizes, va_itemized_deductions, va_standard_deduction): Virginia itemizes only when the federal return does.\n\nI also ran an independent rerun of all 100 households. It reproduces every non-excluded frozen reference and every count in the claim: 39 Medicare-eligible people (all aged 65+, none via SSDI, none under 19 or pregnant) in 33 households; a premium charged in 30; MSP paying it for 4 people in scenario_001, 043 and 118; IRMAA MAGI 0 everywhere. Under no_part_b, not_enrolled and not_enrolled_direct, exactly two outputs move: scenario_114 federal and VA. No other output changes by any amount, and not_enrolled agrees with not_enrolled_direct on every output.\n\nThe one issue is a wording error in the audit README's peripheral ACA sentence (below). The core claim stands.", + "findings": [ + { + "severity": "should_fix", + "claim": "README line 26, \"The ACA premium tax credit tests `is_medicare_eligible`, not enrollment\", is inaccurate as a mechanism statement. PTC eligibility reads both eligibility and enrollment. The enrollment test is redundant and no output is affected, but the sentence should say both.", + "evidence": "pays_aca_premium.py:36 computes is_coverage_eligible = add(person, period, p.ineligible_coverage) == 0. parameters/gov/aca/ineligible_coverage.yaml lists both is_medicare_eligible and has_qualifying_non_marketplace_health_coverage_at_interview. That variable is qualifying_non_marketplace_health_coverage_type_count_at_interview > 0, whose adds list gov.aca.qualifying_non_marketplace_health_coverage includes medicare_enrolled. is_aca_ptc_eligible.py:23 reads pays_aca_premium. Because enrolled implies eligible, not_enrolled cannot change PTC eligibility. PTC is also absent from gov.irs.credits.refundable (2022+), so it reaches no scored output. Suggested wording: 'The ACA premium tax credit treats Medicare eligibility (and, redundantly, enrollment) as disqualifying; it is not in the federal refundable-credit output.'" + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "All mechanism links are confirmed by reading the 2.15.17 source.", + "evidence": "Files in policyengine_us/variables:\n- household/expense/health/medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums.py: where(direct != 0, direct, non_medicare + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled).\n- household/expense/health/health_insurance_premiums.py: no formula, uprating calibration.gov.hhs.cms.moop_per_capita.\n- gov/hhs/medicare/costs/medicare_enrolled.py: defined_for is_medicare_eligible, adds [takes_up_medicare_if_eligible].\n- gov/hhs/medicare/takes_up_medicare_if_eligible.py: default_value True.\n- gov/hhs/medicare/eligibility/is_medicare_eligible.py: age >= 65, or SSDI > 0 with months >= the minimum.\n- part_b/base_part_b_premium.py: base_premium x 12; base_premium.yaml 2026-01-01: 202.9.\n- part_b/gross_medicare_part_b_premium.py: base + 12 x irmaa[status].calc(magi).\n- medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior.py: add(adjusted_gross_income, tax_exempt_interest_income) at period.offset(-2), i.e. 2024, since 2024 >= FIRST_MODELED_YEAR 2015.\n- savings_programs/msp_part_b_premium_coverage.py: sum over months of enrolled & msp_income_eligible & msp_asset_eligible times the monthly standard premium.\n- part_b/medicare_part_b_premium.py: defined_for medicare_enrolled, max(gross - msp, 0).\nThe `* medicare_enrolled` factor in medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums is redundant with medicare_part_b_premium's defined_for, and harmless." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The latest_final reform touches none of the audited variables.", + "evidence": "latest_final.py composes latest_conventions (CA, IRS sales tax, WI, ID, MN, MD, MI, MO holds plus the SNAP FY2026 hold) with latest_md_local_output_scope. Every part only calls modify_parameters. A grep for medic|premium|moop|health_insurance across all fixes/*.py found only docstring and comment text. The SNAP hold nodes are standard, excess_shelter_expense, utility, max/min allotment and asset limits; excess_medical_expense is not among them. The CA hold changes CA's itemized-limitation AGI threshold, which is unrelated to the medical variables." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Direct readers found by static enumeration, and whether each can reach a PolicyBench output (from a grep of variables, parameters and reforms excluding tests, plus a consumer-graph BFS).", + "evidence": "medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums, read by:\n- itemized_medical_expenses: reaches federal, state, local and refundable outputs; live only in scenario_114.\n- snap_allowable_medical_expenses: reaches SNAP, then WIC, school meals and Head Start categorical eligibility and the Medicaid work-requirement pass-through.\n- medicaid_medically_needy_medical_expenses: reaches is_medicaid_eligible through is_medically_needy_for_medicaid and medicaid_category.\n- hud_medical_expenses: hud_adjusted_income, hud_hap, housing_assistance (take-up defaults True), rent, housing_cost, then the SNAP shelter deduction and CA renter credit; reaches outputs.\n- pa_ccw_medical_expenses (PA): pa_ccw, child_care_subsidies, childcare_expenses, then CDCC and the SNAP dependent-care deduction; reaches outputs.\n- mt_medical_expense_deduction_indiv and oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_amount: reach state tax.\n- The WA PTE sources.yaml mention is a comment only.\n\nitemized_medical_expenses, read by:\n- medical_expense_deduction (federal).\n- AL, AR (individual and joint), AZ, HI, MO qualified health insurance premiums, MT joint, NJ, NM (deduction, exemption, and credit to state_refundable_credits): reach state outputs.\n- nd_renters_refund_income and pr_medical_expense_deduction: no output.\n\nmedical_expense_deduction, read by:\n- total_itemized_taxable_income_deductions and itemized_deductions_less_salt, both via gov.irs.deductions.itemized_deductions.\n- State variables: AZ, CA itemized limitation and AMTI, CO addback, DC, IA, KY, LA, MA Part B exemption, ME, MN itemized and AMT, MO, NC, NY max and phase-out (also NYC local), OK, UT taxpayer credit, VA reduced-itemized applicable and reducible lists, VT. All reach state outputs.\n- state_itemized_deductions: no output.\n- Two contrib reforms (MA, MN) that are not applied.\n\nmedicare_part_b_premium, read by:\n- medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums.\n- spm_unit_health_insurance_premiums: SPM MOOP, spm_unit_spm_expenses, spm_unit_net_income, then poverty measures only; no output.\n- WA PTE combined disposable income: no output.\n\nmedicare_enrolled, read by:\n- medicare_part_b_premium and msp_part_b_premium_coverage: path above.\n- medicare_part_a_premium, msp_part_a_premium_coverage and income_adjusted_part_d_premium_surcharge: SPM only, no output.\n- gross_medicare_part_b_premium_if_enrolled and medicare_cost: the impact weight of *_medicare_eligible only.\n- medicare_gross_cost: CBO benefits, no output.\n- ACA at-interview list: PTC, which is not a scored output.\n- CHIP disqualifying-coverage list: is_chip_eligible_child and ca_cchip_eligible (age < 19), and is_chip_fcep_eligible_person (CA pregnant). Reaches is_chip_eligible, but no Medicare-eligible PolicyBench person is under 19 or pregnant.\n\nsnap_allowable_medical_expenses, read by snap_excess_medical_expense_deduction only." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Several channels are statically live but dormant in this run, and my own propagation trace shows each one stopping before an output.", + "evidence": "Own trace of every 2026 variable that differs between reference and no_part_b, over the 33 Medicare households:\n- hud_adjusted_income moves in 10 households (031, 044, 059, 060, 072, 085, 095, 111, 114, 115); housing_assistance moves in none.\n- snap_excess_medical_expense_deduction moves in every premium household. SNAP is the $24/month minimum both ways in 013, 027 and 108 (expected contribution above the maximum allotment) and $0 elsewhere.\n- State taxable incomes move in AZ 013/040, MO 021, CA 031, KS 044, OH 048/107 (e.g. 048 OH taxable income 3,095.40 vs 5,256.00), NY 071/104, AL 092/115 and NJ 095 (nj_main_income_tax 0.00 vs 26.35). Every state output stays the same: $0, or $4.68 in AL 115.\n- scenario_072 flips tax_unit_itemizes (1 to 0) with federal taxable income $0 either way.\n- pa_ccw_medical_expenses moves in 085; pa_ccw does not.\n- No is_medicaid_eligible flips." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Impact weights are affected only under the enrollment readings, and the audit already documents this.", + "evidence": "medicare_cost (defined_for medicare_enrolled) is the impact weight of *_medicare_eligible. not_enrolled and not_enrolled_direct set all 39 to 0. no_part_b changes none, because medicare_cost reads gross_medicare_part_b_premium_if_enrolled, not medicare_part_b_premium. My scenario_114 medicare_cost is $12,065.20 against a published weight of $5,285.20; the sweep summary already lists this stale-weight mismatch, and README line 135 explains it." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The prompt facts hold for scenario_114.", + "evidence": "policybench/prompts.py TASK_PREFACE contains \"Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0\" and \"Do not infer unlisted income, expenses, assets, benefit receipt, rent, or health coverage\". No scenario sets medicare_enrolled, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, medicare_part_b_premium(s) or health_insurance_premiums. scenario_114's inputs have no premium field: age 69, Social Security retirement $23,328, other medical expenses $10,000, OTC $2,000. Some other Medicare households carry health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b, which the prompt labels \"health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B\". That names Part B but states no amount, and none of those outputs move." + } + ], + "numbers_checked": [ + "base_part_b_premium 2026: 202.90/month x 12 = 2,434.80 (parameter and engine)", + "medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior = 0.00 for all 100 households; 2024 AGI of scenario_114 = 0.00; IRMAA first bracket threshold 0 / amount 0 for all five filing statuses", + "gross_medicare_part_b_premium = 2,434.80 for all 39 eligible people; net 0.00 for the 4 MSP-covered (scenario_001 x2, 043, 118)", + "39 Medicare-eligible people / 33 households / 30 with a premium charged (independent rerun)", + "scenario_114 AGI 106,572.56; floor 0.075 x AGI = 7,992.94", + "scenario_114 itemized medical expenses 12,434.80 vs 10,000.00; medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 vs 2,007.06", + "scenario_114 charitable 10,913.78; SALT 9,431.59 (real estate 4,064.29 + state withholding estimate 5,367.30); interest 0.00", + "scenario_114 total itemized 24,787.23 vs 22,352.43; standard 18,150.00; itemizes both (liability 10,729.61 / 11,265.27 vs 11,969.80 if not itemizing)", + "scenario_114 QBID 4,872.35; additional senior deduction 4,105.65; deductions if itemizing 33,765.23 vs 31,330.43", + "scenario_114 federal taxable income 72,807.33 vs 75,242.13 (22% bracket 50,400-105,700)", + "scenario_114 federal income tax before refundable credits 10,729.61 vs 11,265.27 (hand 10,729.6124 / 11,265.2684); delta 535.66 = 0.22 x 2,434.80", + "scenario_114 VA AGI 86,743.77; VA itemized 19,419.94 vs 16,985.14; exemptions 930 + 800", + "scenario_114 VA taxable income 65,593.83 vs 68,028.63; VA brackets 2%/3%/5%/5.75% at 0/3,000/5,000/17,000", + "scenario_114 VA income tax before refundable credits 3,514.15 vs 3,654.15 (hand 3,514.1452 / 3,654.1462); delta 140.00 = 0.0575 x 2,434.80", + "proposed_exclusions.json values: VA frozen 3514.14501953125 / alt 3654.14599609375; federal frozen 10729.6123046875 / alt 11265.267578125 (match engine)", + "independent rerun: 0 non-excluded mismatches vs frozen references; exactly 2 outputs move under no_part_b, not_enrolled and not_enrolled_direct; 0 other outputs differ by any amount", + "not_enrolled zeroes 39 medicare_eligible impact weights (12,065.20 to 0); no_part_b moves none" + ], + "scratch_dir": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify (my files: static_graph.py/.json/.out, readers.txt, paths1.txt, s114.py/.json, hand.py/.json, mini_sweep.py/.json/.log, mech-verify-7363/; other agents share this directory)" + }, + { + "key": "differential", + "verdict": "confirmed", + "summary": "I re-ran the no-Part-B sweep two ways, neither of which uses the audit's person input medicare_part_b_premium = 0. (b) is a parameter reform on top of latest_final that sets gov.hhs.medicare.part_b.base_premium to 0 for 2026 only (2025 stays $185.00, 2027 stays $202.90). (c) is a structural reform that cuts medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums down to its non-Medicare branch: where(direct != 0, direct, health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b). I computed all 1,984 outputs for all 100 households with 8 worker processes. My expanded output set is identical to the 1,984 rows in reference_outputs.csv and in the audit CSV.\n\nThe unmodified system (a) reproduces all 1,928 scored references exactly, with a maximum absolute difference of 0.0. Nineteen excluded outputs differ from their frozen values, the same count as the audit's summary. (a) is bit-identical to the audit's baseline column on all 1,984 outputs.\n\nBoth (b) and (c) are bit-identical to the audit's no_part_b column on all 1,984 outputs: maximum absolute difference 0.0, none above $0.01, none above 1e-6. Each moves exactly two outputs versus (a), and no other output changes by any amount:\n- scenario_114 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits: 10,729.61 -> 11,265.27 (+535.66)\n- scenario_114 VA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits: 3,514.15 -> 3,654.15 (+140.00)\n\nNo SNAP or eligibility output changes by any amount.\n\nThe diagnostics confirm the rest of the claim:\n- 39 Medicare-eligible people in 33 households; medicare_enrolled equals is_medicare_eligible for every person under (a).\n- base_part_b_premium is $2,434.80 for every eligible person.\n- medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior is 0 for every tax unit, and gross equals base for every eligible person, so no IRMAA applies.\n- Under (b), gross_medicare_part_b_premium is 0 for every person, so IRMAA contributes nothing.\n- The premium is charged in 30 households. MSP coverage of $2,434.80 brings the premium to 0 for 4 people: scenario_001 head and spouse, scenario_043 head, scenario_118 head.\n- For scenario_114: AGI is $106,572.56; the medical expense deduction falls from $4,441.86 to $2,007.06; the household itemizes under both.\n\nI read the engine code this session and it matches the stated mechanism: the medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums formula, medicare_enrolled (adds takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, default True, defined_for is_medicare_eligible), the base_premium.yaml 2026 value of 202.9, and gross_medicare_part_b_premium reading medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior, which is AGI plus tax-exempt interest from period offset -2. The prompt rule text is in policybench/prompts.py lines 19-22.\n\nScripts and outputs are in /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify/diff-param-struct-7363adc3/: differential_no_part_b.py, analyze.py, results.json, differential_outputs.csv, analyze.log.", + "findings": [ + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Two different reform mechanisms both reproduce the audit's no_part_b column exactly. This shows that, for these 100 households, the Part B premium reaches outputs only through medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums.", + "evidence": "The structural reform (c) removes only that channel and leaves the spm_unit_health_insurance_premiums path (which adds medicare_part_b_premium) intact. The parameter reform (b) also zeroes base_part_b_premium in msp_part_b_premium_coverage, msp_benefit_value, il_smib_person and medicare_cost. Both match the audit's person-input override on all 1,984 outputs with max abs diff 0.0. So the SPM premium, MSP, IL SMIB and medicare_cost channels change none of the 1,984 outputs." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The claim that no prompt states Medicare enrollment or a Part B premium holds, but 53 of 100 rendered prompts name Medicare Part B as an exclusion.", + "evidence": "I rendered every prompt with policybench.prompts.describe_household. The only Medicare text in any prompt is the line 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B: $X', from the input health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b. It appears in 53 households, including Medicare households 001, 013, 021, 022, 033, 044, 062, 072, 085, 098 and 120. No prompt sets medicare_enrolled or a Part B premium amount. scenario_114's prompt has no Medicare line at all. A reader could take 'excluding Medicare Part B' as a hint that a separate Part B premium exists. This does not touch the one household that moves." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The parameter reform is limited to 2026, and only IRMAA's zero MAGI keeps the IRMAA amount at 0. Zeroing the base premium alone would not remove IRMAA for a household that set 2024 MAGI.", + "evidence": "Under the reform the base premium reads 0.0 at 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-01, while 2025-06-01 stays 185.0 and 2027-06-01 stays 202.9. gross_medicare_part_b_premium is 0 for every person under (b) only because medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior is 0 for every tax unit (verified), so p..calc(0) hits the first bracket, whose amount is 0." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The scratch directory /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify is shared with other verification agents.", + "evidence": "Other agents' files were already in the directory, including fixes/, mechanism/, differential-reform-b/ and analyze_extra.py. My copies of the fixes files were byte-identical to the sources (checked with cmp), and the exact reproduction rules out any corrupted load. I moved my outputs into the subdirectory diff-param-struct-7363adc3/ so they don't collide with the others." + } + ], + "numbers_checked": [ + "outputs: 1,984 computed = 1,984 reference rows = 1,984 audit rows (identical key sets)", + "scored outputs 1,928; excluded 56; (a) vs scored references: 0 mismatches, max abs diff 0.0", + "excluded outputs where (a) differs from frozen: 19 (audit summary also 19)", + "(a) vs audit baseline column: max abs diff 0.0 over 1,984", + "(b) parameter reform vs audit no_part_b: max abs diff 0.0, 0 outputs > $0.01, 0 > 1e-6", + "(c) structural reform vs audit no_part_b: max abs diff 0.0, 0 outputs > $0.01, 0 > 1e-6", + "outputs moving > $1 under (b) and (c): 2; outputs changing by any amount (>1e-6): 2", + "scenario_114 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 10,729.61 -> 11,265.27 (+535.66)", + "scenario_114 VA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 3,514.15 -> 3,654.15 (+140.00)", + "SNAP and eligibility outputs changing under (b)/(c): 0", + "Medicare-eligible people 39 in 33 households; enrolled == eligible for all people under (a)", + "households with medicare_part_b_premium > 0: 30; eligible households with no premium: scenario_001, scenario_043, scenario_118", + "MSP Part B coverage 2,434.80 each for scenario_001 head, scenario_001 spouse, scenario_043 head, scenario_118 head (net premium 0.00)", + "base_part_b_premium 2,434.80 (202.90 x 12) for every eligible person; base_premium param 2026 = 202.9", + "medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior = 0 for all 100 tax units; gross == base for every eligible person (no IRMAA)", + "under (b) gross_medicare_part_b_premium = 0.00 for every person; base_premium 2025 185.0 and 2027 202.9 unchanged", + "scenario_114 AGI 106,572.56; medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 (ref) -> 2,007.06 (no Part B); itemizes 1 under both", + "4,441.86 = 12,434.80 - 0.075 x 106,572.56; 2,007.06 = 10,000.00 - 7,992.94" + ], + "scratch_dir": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify/diff-param-struct-7363adc3" + }, + { + "key": "prompts_answers", + "verdict": "confirmed", + "summary": "I checked the prompt and answer side of the claim and it holds, with nothing blocking.\n\n**Prompts.** All 100 frozen scenarios were rebuilt with scenario_from_dict and rendered with make_no_tools_batch_prompt. No prompt states Medicare enrollment, Medicare coverage or a Part B premium amount.\n- No scenario JSON sets medicare_enrolled, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, medicare_part_b_premium or health_insurance_premiums. The only Medicare-named key is health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b: 61 people in 53 scenarios.\n- to_pe_household's DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS has no Medicare take-up flag.\n- The prompt code would hide both enrollment inputs even if the data carried them: medicare_enrolled is in EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES, and takes_up_ is an excluded prefix.\n- 10 of the 30 Part B households carry the line \"health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B\" (12 people, all aged 65 or over): 013, 021, 022, 033, 044, 062, 072, 085, 098 and 120. scenario_114 does not. Its prompt lists a head aged 69 with $10,000 other medical expenses, $2,000 over-the-counter health expenses and $23,328 Social Security retirement income, and no coverage line of any kind.\n- The prompt text in force at answer time matches what I rendered. TASK_PREFACE is unchanged since f032f4b8 (2026-05-14), before the 2026-06-12 run. The only later prompts.py change (8f3c44cb) touches the explanation-repair prompt. No scenarios.py change since June touches the exclusion lists.\n\n**Engine recompute.** I recomputed scenario_114 myself on 2.15.17 with latest_final, using copies of the fixes in my scratch directory.\n\n| Value | Reference | no_part_b, not_enrolled, not_enrolled_direct |\n|---|---:|---:|\n| Federal income tax before refundable credits | 10,729.61 | 11,265.27 |\n| Virginia income tax before refundable credits | 3,514.15 | 3,654.15 |\n| Itemized medical expenses | 12,434.80 | 10,000.00 |\n| Medical expense deduction | 4,441.86 | 2,007.06 |\n\n- The base premium and medicare_part_b_premium are both 2,434.80. The parameter for 2026-01-01 is 202.9 a month.\n- The IRMAA MAGI from two years prior is 0.00. AGI is 106,572.56. The household itemizes under every reading.\n- The deltas match the premium taxed at each rate: federal 535.66 = 2,434.80 \u00d7 22%; Virginia 140.00 = 2,434.80 \u00d7 5.75%.\n\n**Answers.** 46 models answered scenario_114; kimi-k2.6 left both outputs blank.\n- Within $1 of the readings: Virginia 3,654.15 is matched by gpt-6-astra (3,654.16) and gpt-6.1-sol (3,654.66). Federal 11,642.16 is matched by gpt-6.1-sol (11,642.09) and gpt-6-astra (11,642.20). Federal 11,969.80 is matched by kimi-k3 (11,969.85) and gpt-5.6-sol (11,970.00).\n- No model is within $1 of the frozen values. The nearest federal answer is claude-haiku-4.5 at 10,268.00 ($461.61 off). The nearest Virginia answer is grok-4.6 at 3,509.00 ($5.15 off).\n- None of the four matching models' explanations mentions Medicare, Part B or medical expenses at all. So none says it left the premium out because it was unlisted. That is shown only by arithmetic, which I recomputed:\n - Astra's federal itemized total reconciles exactly to medical deductions on $10,000 alone.\n - Kimi K3's itemized total of 17,518 is 11,447 + 4,064 + 2,007. With the premium it would be 19,952.84, above the 18,150 standard deduction, so Kimi would have itemized.\n- No model's explanation in any of the 100 scenarios adds a Part B premium as an expense.\n\n**Exclusion test.** Under the reference_exclusions.py test, the Virginia record qualifies.\n- The reference depends on an engine default that no household input carries and that the prompt code would hide anyway.\n- A careful reader could take the stated facts the other way; in fact the prompt's own rules favour the other way.\n- With the premium, Virginia is 3,514.15 under all four SALT readings, so the record stands whatever d963 decides about #191.", + "findings": [ + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No scenario sets any of the four Medicare/premium inputs, and no prompt states Medicare enrollment, Medicare coverage or a Part B amount.", + "evidence": "render_prompts.py walks every key of all 100 scenario_json payloads: zero hits for medicare_enrolled, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, medicare_part_b_premium or health_insurance_premiums. Every Medicare-named key is health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b (61 people, 53 scenarios). DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS['person'] holds only takes_up_medicaid_if_eligible and takes_up_ssi_if_eligible. is_excluded_prompt_input_name would hide medicare_enrolled (it is in EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES) and takes_up_medicare_if_eligible (the takes_up_ prefix). The only hidden keys actually present in the data are is_tax_unit_head and is_tax_unit_spouse." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Every prompt line that mentions Medicare, premium, coverage or insurance, and what each states. None asserts enrollment or a premium paid.", + "evidence": "In TASK_PREFACE (all 100 prompts): health coverage facts are to be treated as constant; 'Do not infer unlisted income, expenses, assets, benefit receipt, rent, or health coverage'.\nIn the requested outputs (all 100): one '_medicare_eligible: whether is eligible for Medicare (1 if yes, 0 if no)' line per person. payroll_tax and self_employment_tax mention 'Medicare tax' and 'Additional Medicare Tax' (payroll taxes). federal_refundable_credits says 'exclude the ACA Premium Tax Credit'.\nIn household facts:\n- 'has employer-sponsored insurance': 92 people, 53 scenarios; Part B households 000, 044, 085, 104, 120.\n- 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B: $N': 61 people, 53 scenarios.\n- 'other health insurance premiums: $N': 56 people, 49 scenarios.\n- 'employer sponsored insurance premiums: $N': 49 people, 42 scenarios.\n- 'fsla overtime premium: $N': 11 people (a wage premium).\n- 'has indian health service coverage at interview': 079 and 108.\n- 'has other means tested health coverage at interview': 066.\n- 'has champva health coverage at interview': 116." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "10 of the 30 Part B households carry 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B'; scenario_114 does not.", + "evidence": "The households are scenario_013 ($298), 021 ($210), 022 ($2,416), 033 ($220 and $180, both people), 044 ($3,600, the 66-year-old head), 062 ($4,000), 072 ($16,000 each, both people), 085 ($300), 098 ($336) and 120 ($960). That is 12 people, all aged 65 or over. scenario_001 also carries it ($20 each), but MSP covers its premium, so it is not in part_b_households. The other 20 Part B households, including scenario_114, have no premium line. scenario_114's facts: head age 69, wages $22,700, other medical expenses $10,000, over-the-counter health expenses $2,000, Social Security retirement income $23,328. It has no coverage or insurance line." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Recomputing scenario_114 independently on 2.15.17 with latest_final reproduces every number in the claim.", + "evidence": "s114_engine.py:\n- Reference: is_medicare_eligible 1, medicare_enrolled 1, base_part_b_premium 2,434.80, medicare_part_b_premium 2,434.80, medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior 0.00, AGI 106,572.56, itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 (over-the-counter excluded), medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86, itemizes, federal 10,729.61, Virginia 3,514.15.\n- no_part_b, not_enrolled and not_enrolled_direct agree exactly: itemized medical 10,000.00, deduction 2,007.06, itemizes, federal 11,265.27, Virginia 3,654.15.\n- base_premium.yaml has 2026-01-01: 202.9.\n- Source read this session: medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums returns where(direct != 0, direct, non_medicare + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled); medicare_enrolled adds takes_up_medicare_if_eligible (default_value True) with defined_for is_medicare_eligible; va_deductions selects va_itemized_deductions when tax_unit_itemizes.\n- Frozen reference_outputs.csv: 10729.6123046875 and 3514.14501953125. Neither output appears in the frozen reference_exclusions.json." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The four expected models are the only ones within $1 of the alternative readings. Their explanations never mention Medicare, Part B or medical expenses, so the premium's omission is shown by arithmetic, not stated.", + "evidence": "Verbatim excerpts:\n- gpt-6-astra federal 11,642.20: 'estimated itemized deductions are $20,639.33 after the charitable floor, the senior deduction is $4,105.63, and the qualified business income deduction is $4,872.40.'\n- gpt-6-astra Virginia 3,654.16: 'Estimated allowable itemized deductions are $16,985.18 and personal and age exemptions total $1,730.'\n- gpt-6.1-sol federal 11,642.09: 'After itemized deductions, the phased-down senior deduction and a $4,872.40 qualified-business-income deduction, applying the 2026 brackets produces this tax'\n- gpt-6.1-sol Virginia 3,654.66: 'Using $16,985.18 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of personal and age exemptions yields this tax'\n- kimi-k3 federal 11,969.85: 'standard deduction 18,150 (16,100 single + 2,050 age-65 addition, exceeding itemized deductions of 17,518)'\n- kimi-k3 Virginia 4,134.58 (not within $1 of any reading): 'standard deduction 8,500 (consistency with federal non-itemizing)'\n- gpt-5.6-sol federal 11,970.00: 'the 2026 standard and age deductions, senior deduction, non-itemizer charitable deduction, and QBI deduction produce taxable income of about 78445'\n- gpt-5.6-sol Virginia 4,174.00: 'after the 8750 standard deduction and 930 personal exemption'\nArithmetic, using the models' AGI of 106,572.80:\n- Astra federal itemized: (10,000 \u2212 7,992.96) + 4,064 + 3,654.16 + (11,447 \u2212 532.86) = 20,639.34; Astra states 20,639.33. With the premium it would be 23,074.14.\n- Astra and 6.1 Sol Virginia itemized: 20,639.34 \u2212 3,654.16 = 16,985.18.\n- Kimi: 11,447 + 4,064 + 2,007.04 = 17,518.04. With the premium it would be 19,952.84, above 18,150, which would flip Kimi to itemizing." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No model's explanation, in scenario_114 or any of the 100 scenarios, adds a Part B premium as an expense. No model is within $1 of either frozen value.", + "evidence": "scenario_114 has 92 rows (46 models x 2 outputs). Zero explanations or raw_responses match 'part b', '2,434' or '202.9', and no federal or Virginia explanation contains a premium-inclusive medical figure (4,441, 6,441, 12,434). The 45 non-null answers miss the frozen values by at least $461.61 federal (claude-haiku-4.5, 10,268.00) and $5.15 Virginia (grok-4.6, 3,509.00); kimi-k2.6 is null for both. Across all scenarios, 37 explanations mention Part B. They are Massachusetts 'Part B income', eligibility boilerplate, or questions about duplicated premium lines. None adds the premium." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The Virginia answers nearest the frozen value got there by counting the $2,000 over-the-counter expense, not the Part B premium. The engine excludes over-the-counter purchases.", + "evidence": "grok-4.6 (3,509.00) and deepseek-v4-pro-0813 (3,508.52) both use Virginia itemized 19,518 = 11,447 + 4,064 + 4,007. The 4,007 is 12,000 of medical expenses including over-the-counter, less 7.5% of AGI. grok-4.6's federal note says 'medical 4007 after 7.5% AGI floor on 12000 of medical/OTC costs'. claude-fable-5.1 (3,524.00) uses Virginia itemized of 18,985. These all fall outside the $1 band." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The 'excluding Medicare Part B' label is itself read by some models as a signal about Medicare status. This bears on households that carry the label, not on scenario_114.", + "evidence": "- claude-sonnet-5, scenario_072 head_chip_eligible = 0: 'is already enrolled in Medicare Part B and other coverage'.\n- inkling, scenario_073 head_medicare_eligible = 1: cites 'the presence of Medicare Part B premium exclusions in the health premiums'.\n- claude-sonnet-4.6, scenario_073 head_medicare_eligible = 0: 'no Medicare Part B premiums listed'.\nNone of these feeds a tax output." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Out of scope, for prompt quality: many prompts list both 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' and 'other health insurance premiums', usually for the same amount, and models puzzle over double counting.", + "evidence": "In 2.15.17, medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums reads only health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b, not other_health_insurance_premiums. In all 10 Part B households carrying the first line, the second line appears too. claude-sonnet-4.6 explanations in scenarios 005, 022, 033, 053, 081, 084 and 121 discuss whether the two lines duplicate each other. INPUT_LABEL_OVERRIDES also keeps unused labels for medicare_enrolled (an excluded input) and medicare_part_b_premiums (no such engine input)." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Exclusion test, case for the frozen reading (premium paid): a careful reader could argue it. Statutory enrollment rules were not re-read this session.", + "evidence": "- The prompt says 'Assume tax filing and program take-up when required'. The engine's takes_up_medicare_if_eligible default of True mirrors that rule.\n- The head is 69 and the prompt states $23,328 of Social Security retirement income. Under the commonly cited SSA/CMS rule, people already drawing Social Security at 65 are auto-enrolled in Part B, with the premium withheld from benefits.\n- The 2026 standard premium ($202.90/month) was published before most models answered.\n- The prompt asks for head_medicare_eligible, which invites reasoning about Medicare." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Exclusion test, case for the alternative (no premium): the prompt's specific rules point this way, and every matching model's arithmetic follows it.", + "evidence": "- 'Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0': the premium is an unlisted number.\n- 'Do not infer unlisted income, expenses, ... or health coverage': Part B enrollment is unlisted health coverage, and the premium is an unlisted expense.\n- scenario_114 lists its medical expenses explicitly ($10,000 other, $2,000 over-the-counter) and states no coverage at all.\n- Eligibility, which is asked, is not enrollment. Part B enrollment can be declined.\n- 'Program take-up' most naturally means benefit programs. The specific health-coverage clause governs over the general take-up clause.\n- Observed: every model whose itemized arithmetic can be reconstructed used $10,000 of medical expenses, or $12,000 with over-the-counter, never the premium. None matched the frozen value.\nThe two rules conflict (take-up vs no inferred coverage). That conflict is itself what the docstring's 'could take the stated facts the other way' covers." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Verdict: the Virginia record meets the reference_depends_on_unlisted_input rule, and its standing does not depend on d963.", + "evidence": "- The reference depends on engine inputs the household facts never carried: takes_up_medicare_if_eligible and medicare_enrolled default to enrolled, so medicare_part_b_premium is modeled. The prompt could not list them, and the prompt code would hide them anyway.\n- A careful reader could, and per the prompt's rules should, take the facts the other way.\n- The record names the unlisted input, the alternative reading, frozen 3,514.15 and alternative 3,654.15. Both values reproduce on 2.15.17.\n- With the premium, Virginia is 3,514.15 under all four SALT readings, so the Virginia dependence on Part B stands whatever #191 decides.\n- The reason code is right: the engine applies the law correctly given its enrollment default. The fault is a defaulted unlisted input, not a misapplied rule on stated facts.\n- Optional wording improvement: the alternative_reading could acknowledge the 'program take-up' rule as the source of the frozen reading." + } + ], + "numbers_checked": [ + "scenario JSONs setting medicare_enrolled / takes_up_medicare_if_eligible / medicare_part_b_premium / health_insurance_premiums: 0 of 100", + "health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b carriers: 61 people in 53 scenarios", + "Part B households carrying the 'excluding Medicare Part B' line: 10 of 30 (013, 021, 022, 033, 044, 062, 072, 085, 098, 120); 12 people; scenario_114: no", + "base_part_b_premium 2026: 202.9 x 12 = 2,434.80; medicare_part_b_premium scenario_114 = 2,434.80", + "medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior scenario_114 = 0.00", + "AGI scenario_114 = 106,572.56", + "itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 (reference) vs 10,000.00 (no_part_b / not_enrolled / not_enrolled_direct)", + "medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 vs 2,007.06", + "federal 10,729.61 -> 11,265.27 (delta 535.66 = 2,434.80 x 22%)", + "VA 3,514.15 -> 3,654.15 (delta 140.00 = 2,434.80 x 5.75%)", + "frozen reference_outputs.csv: 10729.6123046875 federal, 3514.14501953125 VA", + "scenario_114: 46 models, 45 non-null answers per output (kimi-k2.6 null)", + "VA within $1 of 3,654.15: gpt-6-astra 3,654.16; gpt-6.1-sol 3,654.66", + "federal within $1 of 11,642.16: gpt-6.1-sol 11,642.09; gpt-6-astra 11,642.20", + "federal within $1 of 11,969.80: kimi-k3 11,969.85; gpt-5.6-sol 11,970.00", + "within $1 of frozen 10,729.61 or 3,514.15: none; nearest federal claude-haiku-4.5 10,268.00 (461.61 off), nearest VA grok-4.6 3,509.00 (5.15 off)", + "within $1 of 11,265.27, 11,137.31, 11,758.09, 11,783.48 or VA 4,127.67: none", + "Astra federal itemized reconstruction 20,639.34 vs stated 20,639.33; with premium 23,074.14", + "Astra / 6.1 Sol VA itemized 16,985.18 = 20,639.34 - 3,654.16", + "Kimi K3 itemized 17,518.04 = 11,447 + 4,064 + 2,007.04; with premium 19,952.84 > 18,150", + "scenario_114 explanations or raw_responses mentioning Part B: 0", + "explanations across all scenarios mentioning Part B: 37; any adding a Part B premium as an expense: 0" + ], + "scratch_dir": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify" + }, + { + "key": "completeness", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_issues", + "summary": "The audit's core finding holds. I reimplemented the check independently on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final. It reproduced all 1,984 baseline outputs and impact weights exactly, and under no_part_b it changed exactly two outputs by any amount (>1e-6): scenario_114 federal (10,729.61 -> 11,265.27) and VA state (3,514.15 -> 3,654.15). So the $1 tolerance hides nothing.\n\nNo channel the readings leave unzeroed reaches an output:\n- Zeroing base_part_b_premium or gross_medicare_part_b_premium moves the same two outputs.\n- Setting medicare_quarters_of_coverage to 0 or 30 moves no output.\n- Part A premium, Part D surcharge, SPM premiums, MSP Part A, msp_benefit_value and il_smib_person are not on any output's computation path.\n- No premium variable is computed outside 2026 on that path.\n- Setting months_receiving_social_security_disability to 24 moves only the five head_medicare_eligible outputs (007/073/074/079/084), which are already excluded. That holds even though four of those heads are then charged the premium, and crossed with no_part_b or not_enrolled.\n\nThe loader and verifier accept the proposed records in every combination except #191 + VA + conditional federal, which is refused as a duplicate, as designed. Every number in the records' alternative_reading and note text checks out.\n\nTwo should_fix issues:\n1. The drafted records and the README leave out the prompt rule \"Assume tax filing and program take-up when required\", which supports the engine's assumed Medicare enrollment.\n2. The README says the stale impact weights have \"no effect on scores\". That is true for the analyze payload, but the manifest-pinned legacy impact summary written by freeze_snapshot.py uses the row-level weights. With 2.15.17's weights every model's mean_impact_score moves and 10 of 46 change rank.\n\nItem 5 is confirmed: build_references_latest.py rewrites only the value column, and the published impact_weight column is identical to the v1.1 (1.755.4) bundle's on all 1,984 rows.", + "findings": [ + { + "severity": "should_fix", + "claim": "Both drafted records' alternative_reading and the README's prompts section cite only the rules that favour the alternative reading. They leave out the TASK_PREFACE rule \"Assume tax filing and program take-up when required\", which supports the engine's reading that every eligible person is enrolled (takes_up_medicare_if_eligible = True). They also leave out the rule that unlisted status inputs are false, which supports not_enrolled.", + "evidence": "policybench/prompts.py lines 19-22 (TASK_PREFACE) reads: \"Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and any other unlisted household fact, boolean, or status input as false. Assume tax filing and program take-up when required. Do not infer unlisted income, expenses, assets, benefit receipt, rent, or health coverage.\" git log -L shows TASK_PREFACE last changed 2026-05-14, so this text was in force for the June run. grep finds no \"program take-up\" anywhere in reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b. The exclusion still stands: the ambiguity runs both ways, which is what reference_depends_on_unlisted_input covers. But the record should state both sides." + }, + { + "severity": "should_fix", + "claim": "The README's related finding \"Stale impact weights, with no effect on scores\" is too broad. Row-level impact_weight values feed a manifest-pinned snapshot artifact (the legacy impact summary). With 2.15.17's weights that artifact changes for every model and reorders 10 of 46.", + "evidence": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py household_impact_summary_by_model (lines 742-840) uses abs(impact_weight) as the row's absolute value. It is called at line 915 and writes analysis/impact_summary_by_model.csv and us_impact_summary_by_model.csv, both pinned in paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json (lines 70, 222) and checked by tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py lines 1031-1052. I recomputed it on the scored reference with the sweep's baseline_impact_weight, which changes 87 scored rows (90 minus 3 excluded). mean_impact_score rises by +0.001212 (gpt-6-luna) to +0.012790 (kimi-k2.6), and 10 of 46 models change rank (e.g. gpt-5.6-sol 6->7, claude-sonnet-5.5 7->6). The frozen artifact reproduces to 1.1e-16. leaderboard_impact.py --weights-check compares only the analyze payload (modelStats, programStats, heatmap, globalWeights, failureModes), so it cannot see this file. Script: /private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify/impact_summary_check.py." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Item 5 confirmed: build_references_latest.py rewrites only the value column. Row-level impact_weight values matter in analysis.py only on fallback paths that the US payload never takes.", + "evidence": "build_references_latest.py: new = board.copy() (line 275). Only new.loc[idx, \"value\"] is assigned (lines 290, 297, 326). It imports _extract_person_value and _pe_variable_for_output but never an impact-weight helper. The published reference_outputs.csv impact_weight column equals the v1.1 bundle's (policyengine-us 1.755.4, results/local/newmodels/publish/.../us/reference_outputs.csv) on all 1,984 rows, while 34 values differ. head_medicare_eligible is 5,285.20 published vs 12,065.20 on 2.15.17, a gap of 6,780.00. There are 90 mismatches: 39 medicare, 37 medicaid, 8 free + 1 reduced-price school meals, 5 WIC; 3 of them are excluded. Where values enter analysis.py: _signed_contributions (lines 245-271, value*impact_weight*sign) feeds household_net_income_by_scenario (275) and bounded_global_variable_weights (369; used at 397-417 only when population weights do not cover the groups). aggregate_global_variable_weights (878; values at 900-903) has the same early return. matching_population_weight_series returns policybench/population_weights.json weights, which cover all 18 US output groups for household, aggregate and equal, so those paths are skipped. amount_accuracy_by_model (742-748) and participation_accuracy_by_model (962-970) use only impact_weight.notna()." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Code review of sweep_part_b.py found no bug that could hide a moved output. My independent reimplementation agrees on every baseline value and on the moved set.", + "evidence": "Baseline: 0 output and 0 weight mismatches against the audit's sweep_part_b.csv. no_part_b: 2 outputs differ by more than 1e-6, both in scenario_114, so no move between $0 and $1 is hidden. Every binary output ends in _eligible, so the round() rule covers them all. The outputs list covers all 1,984 reference rows. medicare_part_b_premium, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible and medicare_enrolled are YEAR variables, so the {2026: v} overrides apply directly. On the outputs' computation path the only non-2026 periods computed are the 2024 AGI tree (IRMAA lookback, which is 0 in all 33 Medicare households) and 2025 state/FPG in 092 and 115. No premium or medical variable is computed outside 2026, so the 2026-only override and trace filter hide nothing. The grid's liability matches #191's sweep_salt_withholding.py (state + MD county - NYC, floored at 0, CONVERGED 0.005) and converged in one pass for scenario_114. The grid omits #191's 'net' reading, but scenario_114's state_refundable_credits is 0.00, so net equals liability. #191's own readings are liability, net and zero; 'zero_no_local_sales' appears only in its record note." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No other channel that reads enrollment or the premium reaches an output.", + "evidence": "Extra readings across all 100 households (/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify/extra_sweep.json):\n- base_part_b_premium = 0 and gross_medicare_part_b_premium = 0: each moves only the same two scenario_114 outputs, plus the 39 medicare_cost impact weights.\n- medicare_quarters_of_coverage = 0 or 30: 0 outputs, 39 weights.\nOn the outputs' computation path, medicare_part_a_premium, income_adjusted_part_d_premium_surcharge, spm_unit_health_insurance_premiums, msp_part_a_premium_coverage, msp_benefit_value and il_smib_person are never computed. base_part_a_premium, is_premium_free_part_a and medicare_quarters_of_coverage appear only under medicare_cost, the impact weight. Static grep agrees: il_smib_person feeds only il_smib, and msp_benefit_value feeds msp, msp_cost and msp_federal_cost. Stress tests (not readings): doubling the premium moves scenario_000 federal (-62.88) and scenario_115 AL state (-4.68); IRMAA at MAGI 1e7 moves 12 outputs in 8 households. Neither is supported by the prompt rules: an unlisted 2024 income reads as 0, and at 2026 MAGI no output moves." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Other unlisted Medicare inputs: months_receiving_social_security_disability, crossed with the Part B channel, moves nothing beyond the 5 outputs already excluded. medicare_quarters_of_coverage reaches no output. I recommend the audit record these sweeps, but they call for no new exclusion.", + "evidence": "Six SSDI recipients: 007 ID, 073 MI, 074 LA, 079 AZ and 084 NC (under 65), and 027 CT (68, already eligible). With months = 24 they become eligible and enrolled. The 2,434.80 premium is charged to the heads of 007, 073, 074 and 084; MSP covers 079's head. Only head_medicare_eligible moves 0 -> 1 in 007/073/074/079/084, all already excluded for this input. The same holds with no_part_b or not_enrolled added. months = 12 moves nothing. medicare_quarters_of_coverage (default 40) moves only medicare_cost weights. medicare_part_b_premiums_reported has no consumer in 2.15.17. ESRD/ALS entitlement has no engine input." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The loader and verifier accept the proposed records, and the README's pinned counts check out.", + "evidence": "load_reference_exclusions + verify_exclusions_against_reference + split_reference on copies in scratch:\n- VA only: OK, 57 exclusions, 29 unlisted, 40 households, 1,927 scored.\n- Conditional federal only: OK, 57 exclusions.\n- Both: OK, 58 exclusions, 30 unlisted, 40 households, 1,926 scored.\n- #191's 3 records: OK, 59 exclusions, 31 unlisted, 1,925 scored.\n- #191 + VA: OK, 60 exclusions, 32 unlisted, 40 households, 1,924 scored.\n- #191 + VA + conditional: ReferenceExclusionError, duplicate ('scenario_114', 'federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits'), as the README expects.\nfrozen_value matches the CSV bit-for-bit: 3514.14501953125 and 10729.6123046875. Frozen counts: 56 exclusions, 28 unlisted, 39 households, 4 records on 2.15.17, 69 adjudications. scenario_114 has 45 llm_error rows per output. The drafted records lack judge_verdict, as do 44 of the 56 frozen records; the loader does not require it." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "One README wording slip that changes no conclusion: scenario_013's SNAP is not the $24 monthly minimum all year.", + "evidence": "Monthly SNAP for 013 (AZ) is 0.00 in January and February and 24.00 from March to December, $240.00 a year, unchanged under no_part_b. 027 and 108 are 24.00 every month ($288.00). The README says all three pay \"the $24 monthly minimum either way\"." + } + ], + "numbers_checked": [ + "base premium parameter 2026-01-01: 202.9/month; x12 = 2,434.80 (base_part_b_premium 2434.800048828125)", + "scenario_114 age 69; other_medical_expenses 10,000.00; OTC 2,000.00 excluded (itemized_medical_expenses 12,434.80 = 10,000 + 2,434.80); prompt has no premium line", + "AGI 106,572.56; 7.5% floor 7,992.94; medical_expense_deduction 4,441.86 with premium, 2,007.06 without", + "federal 10,729.61 -> 11,265.27 (+535.66 = 2,434.80 x 0.22); VA 3,514.15 -> 3,654.15 (+140.00 = 2,434.80 x 0.0575)", + "grid federal: modeled 10,729.61 / 11,137.31 / 11,758.09 / 11,783.48; no premium 11,265.27 / 11,642.16 / 11,969.80 / 11,969.80", + "grid VA: modeled 3,514.15 in all four; no premium 3,654.15 / 3,654.15 / 4,127.67 / 4,127.67; itemizes 0 only in no_part_b|zero and zero_no_local_sales", + "not_enrolled = no_part_b in every grid cell; not_enrolled_direct vs not_enrolled differences: 0", + "IRMAA single 2026 first threshold 109,001 > MAGI 106,572.56; irmaa reading gross premium 2,434.80; medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior 0.00 in all 33 Medicare households", + "39 eligible people (all age >= 65) in 33 households; 35 charged in 30 households; MSP covers 4 (001 head and spouse, 043 head, 118 head)", + "1,984 outputs; 1,928 scored; 0 scored reference mismatches; 19 excluded outputs differ from frozen value", + "model answers: VA within $1 of 3,654.15: gpt-6-astra 3,654.16, gpt-6.1-sol 3,654.66; none within $1 of 3,514.15 or 4,127.67", + "federal within $1: 11,642.16 -> gpt-6-astra 11,642.20, gpt-6.1-sol 11,642.09; 11,969.80 -> kimi-k3 11,969.85, gpt-5.6-sol 11,970.00; none within $1 of 10,729.61, 11,265.27, 11,137.31, 11,758.09 or 11,783.48", + "#191 record for scenario_114 federal: frozen 10,729.6123046875, alternative 11,137.306640625; its note quotes 11,265.27, 11,642.16, 11,969.80", + "household categories: below floor 7 (000, 022, 033, 042, 055, 120, 122; 022 and 120 itemize), standard deduction both ways 21, itemizes only with premium 1 (072), itemizes both ways 1 (114), MSP 3", + "state-prefixed variables move in 14 households incl. 114 (13 others); nj_main_income_tax +26.35 in 095; AL 115 state stays 4.68", + "SNAP: 30/30 charged households move snap_excess_medical_expense_deduction; 27 at 0.00 both ways; 027 and 108 288.00, 013 240.00 (0 in Jan-Feb)", + "impact weights: 90 mismatches (39 Medicare, 37 Medicaid, 9 school meals, 5 WIC; 3 excluded); head_medicare_eligible 5,285.20 vs 12,065.20, gap 6,780.00; published weights = v1.1 bundle weights on all 1,984 rows", + "irmaa_from_2026_income weight moves: 022 12,065.20 -> 11,090.80; 055 -> 9,630.40; 120 -> 6,709.60; no output moves", + "legacy mean_impact_score with 2.15.17 weights: +0.001212 to +0.012790; 10 of 46 rank changes", + "README exclusion counts: 56->58 / 59->60; unlisted 28->30 / 31->32; households 39->40 / 40; scored 1,928->1,926 / 1,925->1,924; 2.15.17 records 4 frozen; adjudications 69; 45 llm_error rows per scenario_114 output" + ], + "scratch_dir": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify" + }, + { + "key": "prompts_answers_first_run", + "note": "the same prompt and answer check, from the run's first attempt before an account limit interrupted the other three reviewers; the resumed run re-ran it", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_issues", + "summary": "Everything in my scope checks out. Prompts: I rendered describe_household and make_no_tools_batch_prompt for all 100 frozen scenarios. Each description appears word for word in the frozen data.json.gz prompts (100/100 tool, 100/100 json). Of the full batch prompts, 82 are byte-identical; the other 18 differ only in the order of the requested variables. In git, describe_household and TASK_PREFACE are unchanged since 2026-05-14, and the one post-freeze edit to prompts.py touches only the explanation-repair prompt. No prompt states Medicare enrollment, Medicare coverage or a Part B premium amount. The word Medicare appears only in three places: (a) the label \"health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B: $X\" (61 lines in 53 scenarios); (b) the payroll_tax and self_employment_tax request lines (\"employee Medicare tax\", \"Additional Medicare Tax\"); (c) \"whether X is eligible for Medicare\" requests. No scenario JSON sets medicare_enrolled, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, medicare_part_b_premium or health_insurance_premiums. Two of these names can never appear in a prompt: is_excluded_prompt_input_name returns True for medicare_enrolled (EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES) and for takes_up_medicare_if_eligible (the takes_up_ prefix). medicare_part_b_premium is a formula variable, so it is not a promptable input. Of the 30 Part-B households, 10 carry the \"excluding Medicare Part B\" line: 013, 021, 022, 033, 044, 062, 072, 085, 098, 120. In every one the line sits on the person charged the premium (12 of the 35 charged people). scenario_114 does not carry it; its prompt has no health-coverage or premium line at all. Answers: on scenario_114 VA, GPT-6 Astra (3,654.16) and GPT-6.1 Sol (3,654.66) are within $1 of 3,654.15. On federal, GPT-6.1 Sol (11,642.09) and GPT-6 Astra (11,642.20) are within $1 of 11,642.16, and Kimi K3 (11,969.85) and GPT-5.6 Sol (11,970.00) are within $1 of 11,969.80. No model is within $1 of the frozen 3,514.15 or 10,729.61, or of the standalone federal record's alternative, 11,265.27. None of the four models' eight explanations mentions Medicare, Part B, medical expenses, premiums or health, so no explanation says the premium was left out because it is unlisted. Their stated deduction figures do, however, rebuild exactly as medical expenses of $10,000 less 7.5% of AGI with no premium. No explanation among the 91,264 rows adds a Part B premium amount. Verdict: the VA record meets the rule in reference_exclusions.py. The frozen value needs Medicare enrollment and a Part B premium that the household data never carried and the prompt could not list. A careful reader can take the facts either way, and the prompt rules favour the no-Part-B reading. One should_fix: the record's alternative_reading does not answer the strongest argument for the frozen side, the prompt sentence \"Assume tax filing and program take-up when required\".", + "findings": [ + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The rendered prompts are the prompts the models received, and none states Medicare enrollment, Medicare coverage or a Part B premium amount.", + "evidence": "describe_household output for all 100 scenarios appears verbatim in data.json.gz scenarios[*].prompt.tool and .json (100/100 each). The 18 full batch prompts that differ from the payload differ only in requested-variable order (diff on scenario_008 shows only the school-meal lines moved). git log: prompts.py's only post-freeze commit, 8f3c44cb on 2026-07-09, changes make_explanation_repair_prompt only. scenarios.py commits after 06-12 do not touch the EXCLUDED_* or PROMPTABLE sets. Prompt lines matching medicare|premium|coverage|insurance|enroll: 'has employer-sponsored insurance' (92); 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B: $N' (61 in 53 scenarios); 'other health insurance premiums: $N' (56); 'employer sponsored insurance premiums: $N' (49); 'fsla overtime premium' (11); 'is enrolled at least half time for american opportunity credit' (4, education); 'has indian health service coverage at interview' (3), 'has other means tested health coverage at interview' (1), 'has champva health coverage at interview' (1). TASK_PREFACE mentions only 'health coverage' (twice). Request lines mention 'employee Medicare tax', 'Additional Medicare Tax' and 'whether X is eligible for Medicare (1 if yes, 0 if no)'." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No scenario sets any of the four Medicare/premium inputs, and the household data could not have put the enrollment flags into a prompt.", + "evidence": "Walking every scenario_json key found these names zero times: medicare_enrolled, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, medicare_part_b_premium, health_insurance_premiums. is_excluded_prompt_input_name gives True for medicare_enrolled (in EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES) and for takes_up_medicare_if_eligible (EXCLUDED_INPUT_PREFIXES 'takes_up_'). medicare_part_b_premium has a formula (max_(gross - msp_coverage, 0)), so _is_promptable_input_variable rejects it. Code read in 2.15.17: medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums = where(health_insurance_premiums != 0, direct, health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled); medicare_enrolled defined_for is_medicare_eligible, adds takes_up_medicare_if_eligible; takes_up_medicare_if_eligible default_value = True; base_premium 2026-01-01 is 202.9. DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS in scenarios.py has no Medicare entry, so the True default comes from the engine, not from the benchmark." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "10 of the 30 Part-B households carry the 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' line, always on the charged person; scenario_114 does not carry it.", + "evidence": "Carrying the line: scenario_013 head $298, 021 head $210, 022 head $2,416, 033 head $220 and spouse $180, 044 head $3,600, 062 head $4,000, 072 head and spouse $16,000 each, 085 head $300, 098 head $336, 120 head $960. That is 12 of the 35 charged people (all charged $2,434.80). For these people the engine stacks Part B on top of the listed amount: scenario_013 head medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums is 2,732.80 = 298 + 2,434.80. scenario_001 carries the line too, but MSP covers its premiums. The full scenario_114 prompt has no premium, insurance or coverage line. It lists age 69, Social Security retirement income $23,328, other medical expenses $10,000 and over-the-counter health expenses $2,000." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No model answered within $1 of either frozen value. Two models hit the VA alternative exactly, and four hit federal no-Part-B grid values (none hit the standalone record's 11,265.27).", + "evidence": "VA (46 rows; kimi-k2.6 NaN): gpt-6-astra 3,654.16 (+0.01) and gpt-6.1-sol 3,654.66 (+0.51) against 3,654.15. The answers closest to frozen 3,514.15 are grok-4.6 3,509.00 (-5.15), deepseek-v4-pro-0813 3,508.52 (-5.63) and claude-fable-5.1 3,524.00 (+9.85). Federal: gpt-6.1-sol 11,642.09 and gpt-6-astra 11,642.20 against no_part_b|liability 11,642.16; kimi-k3 11,969.85 and gpt-5.6-sol 11,970.00 against no_part_b|zero 11,969.80. The answers closest to frozen 10,729.61 are claude-haiku-4.5 10,268 (-461.61) and claude-opus-4.8 11,210 (+480.39). Nothing is within $1 of 11,265.27, 11,137.31, 11,758.09 or 11,783.48. Kimi K3's VA answer is 4,134.58 and GPT-5.6 Sol's is 4,174.00; neither is within $1 of 4,127.67 or any other grid value." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "None of the four matching models says anything about Medicare, Part B or medical expenses. Their numbers are consistent with leaving the premium out, but no explanation gives a reason.", + "evidence": "A regex for medic|premium|part b|health|insur|OTC over the 8 explanations finds 0 hits. Excerpts: Astra federal: 'estimated itemized deductions are $20,639.33 after the charitable floor, the senior deduction is $4,105.63'. Astra VA: 'Estimated allowable itemized deductions are $16,985.18 and personal and age exemptions total $1,730.' GPT-6.1 Sol federal: 'After itemized deductions, the phased-down senior deduction and a $4,872.40 qualified-business-income deduction, applying the 2026 brackets produces this tax'. GPT-6.1 Sol VA: 'Using $16,985.18 of itemized deductions and $1,730 of personal and age exemptions yields this tax'. Kimi K3 federal: 'standard deduction 18,150 (16,100 single + 2,050 age-65 addition, exceeding itemized deductions of 17,518)'. Kimi K3 VA: 'standard deduction 8,500 (consistency with federal non-itemizing)'. GPT-5.6 Sol federal: 'the 2026 standard and age deductions, senior deduction, non-itemizer charitable deduction, and QBI deduction produce taxable income of about 78445'. GPT-5.6 Sol VA: 'after the 8750 standard deduction and 930 personal exemption, taxable income is about 77064'. Rebuilding from AGI 106,572.80: medical is 10,000 - 7,992.96 = 2,007.04 without Part B and 4,441.84 with it. Astra's federal itemized = 2,007.04 + charity 10,914.14 + SALT (4,064 + 3,654.16) = 20,639.34 (stated 20,639.33; with Part B it would be 23,074.14). Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol VA itemized = 16,985.18 exactly (with Part B 19,419.98). Kimi's 17,518 = 2,007.04 + 11,447 + 4,064 = 17,518.04. With Part B that total would be 19,952.84, above the 18,150 standard deduction, so Kimi would have itemized. GPT-5.6 Sol gives no itemized figure, so its explanation cannot show whether it considered medical expenses." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "No explanation in any of the 91,264 prediction rows adds a Part B premium amount. A few models read the Part B label as a sign of Medicare status.", + "evidence": "39 rows mention 'Part B' or 'Medicare B'. Most use the prompt label or Massachusetts 'Part B income'. The rest: claude-sonnet-5 scenario_072 head_chip_eligible answered 0 (ref 0): 'is already enrolled in Medicare Part B and other coverage', with no amount. inkling scenario_073 head_medicare_eligible answered 1 (ref 0): 'the presence of Medicare Part B premium exclusions in the health premiums, he meets Medicare disability eligibility rules'. claude-sonnet-4.6 scenario_073 answered 0: 'no Medicare Part B premiums listed'. glm-5.2 scenario_021 snap answered 0 (ref 0): 'plus Medicare premiums and other deductions', no amount. glm-5.2 scenario_003 federal answered 49,523.45: 'Medicare B premium deduction 0'. In scenario_114, 0 of 46 models mention Part B or a Medicare premium on any output. Ten models reach a larger medical deduction (about $4,007) by counting the $2,000 of over-the-counter expenses, not Part B; the engine's itemized_medical_expenses there is 12,434.80 = 10,000 + 2,434.80, with no OTC." + }, + { + "severity": "should_fix", + "claim": "The VA record's alternative_reading cites only the rules that favour the alternative. It should also name and answer the strongest textual argument for the frozen reading: TASK_PREFACE's 'Assume tax filing and program take-up when required'.", + "evidence": "proposed_exclusions.json alternative_reading cites 'treat any unlisted numeric input as 0' and 'not to infer unlisted expenses or health coverage', but does not mention the take-up sentence or the head's stated Social Security retirement income ($23,328). The frozen side: a law-literate reader could treat Medicare as a program whose take-up the prompt says to assume. Under general Medicare enrollment rules (not checked against statute text this session), Social Security recipients turning 65 are enrolled in Part B automatically, with the premium deducted from the benefit. And the $202.90 premium is set by law, not a household input. The rebuttal, from code read this session: the specific rule 'Do not infer unlisted ... expenses ... or health coverage' governs over the general take-up sentence. The benchmark's own encoding of take-up, DEFAULT_TAKEUP_INPUTS (Medicaid, SSI, ACA, DC PTC, EITC, SNAP, filing), has no Medicare entry; enrollment comes from the engine's takes_up_medicare_if_eligible default_value=True. And the Medicare request asks only about eligibility. Adding a sentence on this would make the 'careful reader could take the stated facts the other way' finding self-contained." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "Verdict on the exclusion test: the VA record meets the rule.", + "evidence": "The docstring scores an output only when its reference follows from the facts the prompt states. The frozen 3,514.15 needs medicare_enrolled=True (from the engine's take-up default) and the modeled medicare_part_b_premium (2,434.80) counted as a medical expense. The household data never set these, and the prompt could not list them: two are hard-excluded from prompts by name or prefix, and the third is a formula variable. Arguments for the frozen side: the program take-up sentence, Social Security receipt at 69, automatic Part B enrollment, and a premium fixed by law. Arguments for the alternative: the unlisted-numeric-as-0 rule, the rule against inferring expenses or health coverage, the benchmark leaving Medicare out of its take-up list, and premiums elsewhere appearing only as explicit lines. So both readings are available, which is the case the reason code covers, and the prompt rules favour the alternative. That makes symmetric exclusion the right tool, rather than re-keying the reference or calling it an engine defect (the engine is modelling a plausible real-world default, not misapplying law to stated facts). Model evidence agrees: 0/46 within $1 of frozen, 2/46 on the alternative, and no explanation adds Part B. The record is well-formed: merged with the frozen run's 56 exclusions (none for scenario_114), load_reference_exclusions plus verify_exclusions_against_reference accept it (57 entries, frozen_value matches reference 3,514.14501953125), and adding the conditional federal record also validates (58)." + }, + { + "severity": "note", + "claim": "The 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' label is a prompt-wording hazard outside this record. It names Part B in 61 lines and some models read it as evidence of Medicare status.", + "evidence": "In scenario_073, inkling inferred Medicare eligibility from the label (answered 1, ref 0), and in scenario_072 claude-sonnet-5 said the head 'is already enrolled in Medicare Part B'. In the 10 Part-B households carrying the label, a reader could take it either way: Part B paid but excluded from the figure (the engine's stacking), or Part B unlisted and therefore 0. Per the sweep summary (read, not recomputed), no output in those households moves by more than $1, so this does not affect the proposed record. The prompt also shows identical 'other health insurance premiums' lines; in 2.15.17 that input feeds spm_unit_health_insurance_premiums only, and health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b feeds medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums, so neither is double-counted in medical expenses, but sonnet-4.6 explanations show models puzzling over the duplicate." + } + ], + "numbers_checked": [ + "100/100 scenario descriptions appear word for word in data.json.gz prompt.tool and prompt.json; 82/100 full batch prompts byte-identical, 18 differ only in requested-variable order; scenario_114's tool prompt is identical", + "Prompt line counts: 'health insurance premiums excluding Medicare Part B' 61 lines in 53 scenarios; 'other health insurance premiums' 56; 'employer sponsored insurance premiums' 49; 'has employer-sponsored insurance' 92", + "Scenarios setting medicare_enrolled / takes_up_medicare_if_eligible / medicare_part_b_premium / health_insurance_premiums: 0 / 0 / 0 / 0", + "is_excluded_prompt_input_name: medicare_enrolled True, takes_up_medicare_if_eligible True, medicare_part_b_premium False (but it is a formula variable), health_insurance_premiums False", + "Part-B households carrying the line: 10 of 30 (013, 021, 022, 033, 044, 062, 072, 085, 098, 120); 12 of 35 charged people; scenario_114 does not carry it", + "39 Medicare-eligible people, 35 charged $2,434.80 each in 30 households, 4 covered by MSP (001 head and spouse, 043 head, 118 head)", + "2026 base_premium parameter 202.9 x 12 = 2,434.80", + "scenario_114 VA: gpt-6-astra 3,654.16 (+0.01), gpt-6.1-sol 3,654.66 (+0.51) vs 3,654.15; closest to frozen 3,514.15: grok-4.6 3,509.00 (-5.15), deepseek-v4-pro-0813 3,508.52 (-5.63), claude-fable-5.1 3,524.00 (+9.85)", + "scenario_114 federal: gpt-6.1-sol 11,642.09, gpt-6-astra 11,642.20 vs 11,642.16; kimi-k3 11,969.85, gpt-5.6-sol 11,970.00 vs 11,969.80; none within $1 of 11,265.27 or 10,729.61 (closest to frozen: claude-haiku-4.5 10,268.00, -461.61)", + "kimi-k3 VA 4,134.58 and gpt-5.6-sol VA 4,174.00: not within $1 of 4,127.67 (no_part_b|zero)", + "Medical deduction at AGI 106,572.80: 2,007.04 without Part B, 4,441.84 with it; engine values 2,007.06 and 4,441.86 at AGI 106,572.56", + "Astra federal itemized rebuilt without Part B: 20,639.34 (stated 20,639.33); with Part B it would be 23,074.14", + "Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol VA itemized rebuilt without Part B: 16,985.18 (stated 16,985.18); with Part B 19,419.98", + "Kimi itemized rebuilt without Part B: 17,518.04 (stated 17,518); with Part B 19,952.84, which exceeds the 18,150 standard deduction", + "Kimi and GPT-5.6 Sol taxable income 106,572.80 - 18,150 - 4,105.63 - 1,000 - 4,872.40 = 78,444.77", + "Engine deltas: federal 535.66 = 2,434.80 x 0.22 (535.656); VA 140.00 = 2,434.80 x 0.0575 (140.001), consistent with those marginal rates", + "Merged exclusions validate: 56 frozen + VA = 57; + conditional federal = 58; frozen_value 3,514.14501953125 matches reference_outputs.csv", + "Sweep summary (read, not recomputed): 267 SNAP/eligibility rows in Medicare households identical across all five readings", + "Explanation scan: 91,264 rows, 0 add a Part B premium amount; 0 of 46 scenario_114 models mention Part B or a Medicare premium" + ], + "scratch_dir": "/private/tmp/claude-501/pb-partb-verify/prompts-answers" + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0493ec95 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/inputs/pr191_proposed_exclusions.json @@ -0,0 +1,74 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "status": "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's date.", + "basis": "policybench/reference_exclusions.py: an output is excluded for every model when its reference depends on an engine input the prompt never listed and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way.", + "exclusions": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of California income tax withheld: California's single rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $17,624.75 of taxable Social Security, which California exempts) less California's single standard deduction, at California's 2025 amounts (ca_withheld_income_tax, under the c_ca_hold_2025 convention), $6,058.85. The same engine computes the household's California income tax before refundable credits as $2,505.87. Read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 11113.5703125, + "alternative_value": 11895.2275390625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,887.85 in the reference and $11,334.87 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $1,155.60, and the output is $12,192.29; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $192.60 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $12,234.66. The alternative uses the engine's California liability ($2,505.87), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($1,968.81, recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4) the output is $12,013.38. The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)). With them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate and $11,744.69 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld: 5% of the person's whole federal AGI above the $4,400 single personal exemption (ma_withheld_income_tax), $8,484.41. The same engine computes the household's Massachusetts income tax before refundable credits as $8,238.41. Read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 26932.2734375, + "alternative_value": 26991.3125, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,127.41 in the reference and $13,881.41 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $853.00, and the output is $28,763.81. The alternative uses the engine's Massachusetts liability ($8,238.41), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($8,232.90) the output is $26,992.64. The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's Massachusetts paid family and medical leave contributions ($805.01) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Rev. Rul. 2025-4). With them the output is $26,739.07 under the withholding estimate and $26,798.11 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Virginia income tax withheld: Virginia's rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts) less Virginia's single standard deduction (va_withheld_income_tax), $5,367.30. The same engine computes the household's Virginia income tax before refundable credits as $3,514.15. Read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 10729.6123046875, + "alternative_value": 11137.306640625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $9,431.59 in the reference and $7,578.44 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $692.40, and the output is $11,758.09; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $115.40 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $11,783.48. The reference's medical deduction also includes a modeled Medicare Part B premium of $2,434.80, which the prompt does not list. Without it the output is $11,265.27 under the withholding estimate and $11,642.16 under the liability, and with no withholding, local sales tax or Part B premium it is $11,969.80 (the household then takes the standard deduction)." + } + ], + "already_excluded": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_078", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "existing_reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "existing_basis": "whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom)", + "reference": 24164.45703125, + "engine_value_on_2_15_17": 24164.45703125, + "liability_reading_value": 24799.1640625, + "zero_reading_value": 27290.697265625, + "note_to_append": "The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Maryland withholding estimate ($15,791.66); with the engine's own liability ($11,295.39) the 2.15.17 value is $24,799.16, and with no state income tax paid it is $27,290.70. The $40,400 cap that binds in the reference does not bind under the liability, so the liability value depends on the county, which the prompt does not state: $24,705.95 to $25,068.44 across Maryland's 24 county rates (the engine's default, Allegany, gives $24,799.16)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "existing_reason_code": "reference_engine_defect", + "existing_basis": "r02_ira_219g", + "reference": 40021.81640625, + "engine_value_on_2_15_17": 40416.66796875, + "liability_reading_value": 40438.953125, + "zero_reading_value": 43619.93359375, + "note_to_append": "The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Connecticut withholding estimate ($12,010.05); with the engine's own liability ($11,917.18) the 2.15.17 value is $40,438.95, and with no state income tax paid it is $43,619.93. With r02's IRA fix on 2.15.17 the value is $40,423.18 under the withholding estimate, $40,445.46 under the liability and $43,629.21 with no state income tax paid. policyengine-us 2.15.17 also leaves the household's Connecticut paid leave contributions ($827.98) out of SALT (Rev. Rul. 2025-4); with them the 2.15.17 value is $40,217.95." + } + ], + "readings_moving_no_further_scored_output": [ + "net", + "zero" + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/leaderboard_impact.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/leaderboard_impact.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3e2c9692 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/leaderboard_impact.json @@ -0,0 +1,459 @@ +{ + "published_reproduced": true, + "legacy_impact_summary_reproduced": true, + "cases": [ + { + "case": "part_b", + "exclusions_added": [ + "scenario_114/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_114/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "scored_outputs": { + "published": 1928, + "case": 1926 + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.18083569721511594, + "max": 0.26272047738837045, + "mean": 0.25396770360331294 + }, + "within1pct_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.18083569721511594, + "max": 0.26272047738837045 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": 0.009521744180730707, + "max": 0.26140701322196946 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "within1pct_rank_changes": { + "claude-opus-4.8": { + "published": 40, + "case": 39 + }, + "minimax-m3": { + "published": 39, + "case": 40 + } + }, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "always_zero_baseline": { + "published": { + "exact": 69.97959457368849, + "within1pct": 69.97959457368849 + }, + "case": { + "exact": 70.14407633139312, + "within1pct": 70.14407633139312 + } + }, + "leader": "gpt-6-sol", + "leader_exact": { + "published": 95.00349913571871, + "case": 95.26621961310708 + }, + "leader_margin_over_always_zero_exact": { + "published": 25.023904562030225, + "case": 25.12214328171396 + }, + "programs": [ + { + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "exact_published": 61.611877, + "exact_case": 62.372517, + "exact_delta": 0.76064, + "score_published": 82.701144, + "score_case": 82.823625, + "score_delta": 0.122481, + "n_published": 3772, + "n_case": 3726, + "n_delta": -46 + }, + { + "variable": "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "exact_published": 64.307381, + "exact_case": 65.063939, + "exact_delta": 0.756557, + "score_published": 84.205086, + "score_case": 84.358237, + "score_delta": 0.15315, + "n_published": 3956, + "n_case": 3910, + "n_delta": -46 + } + ], + "legacy_impact_summary": { + "mean_impact_score_delta": { + "min": 0.00017757408000151909, + "max": 0.005036894110105661 + }, + "models_changing_rank": 2, + "rank_changes": { + "claude-sonnet-4.6": { + "published": 24, + "case": 25 + }, + "claude-opus-4.7": { + "published": 25, + "case": 24 + } + } + } + }, + { + "case": "salt", + "exclusions_added": [ + "scenario_022/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_081/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_114/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "scored_outputs": { + "published": 1928, + "case": 1925 + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + 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a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..451f1751 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/part_b_households.csv @@ -0,0 +1,34 @@ +scenario_id,state,medicare_eligible_people,part_b_premium,msp_part_b_coverage,federal_itemizes,federal_itemizes_without_part_b,medical_expense_deduction,medical_expense_deduction_without_part_b,federal_output,state_output,snap,snap_without_part_b,state_variables_moving,outputs_moved +scenario_000,TX,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,2906.45361328125,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_001,VA,2,0.0,4869.60009765625,False,False,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_002,WA,2,4869.60009765625,0.0,False,False,3134.85009765625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_013,AZ,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2222.199951171875,0.0,0.0,0.0,240.0,240.0,az_itemized_deductions, +scenario_021,MO,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2331.699951171875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,mo_itemized_deductions, +scenario_022,CA,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,True,True,0.0,0.0,11113.5703125,2505.8701171875,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_027,CT,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2914.175048828125,479.375,0.0,0.0,288.0,288.0,, +scenario_031,CA,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,1441.574951171875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,ca_itemized_deductions;ca_itemized_deductions_pre_limitation, +scenario_033,SD,2,4869.60009765625,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,3818.148193359375,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_040,AZ,2,4869.60009765625,0.0,False,False,2447.10009765625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,az_itemized_deductions, +scenario_042,WI,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,2361.96484375,464.18280029296875,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_043,CO,1,0.0,2434.800048828125,False,False,4153.0947265625,4153.0947265625,0.0,0.0,3576.0,3576.0,, +scenario_044,KS,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,10134.7998046875,7700.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,ks_itemized_deductions, +scenario_048,OH,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2160.60009765625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,oh_agi;oh_agi_person;oh_deductions;oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_amount;oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expenses;oh_joint_filing_credit_qualifying_income;oh_modified_agi;oh_taxable_income;oh_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_deduction_person, +scenario_055,FL,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,25238.578125,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_059,FL,2,4869.60009765625,0.0,False,False,3089.91015625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_060,TX,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,14204.1748046875,11769.375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_062,FL,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,5135.5810546875,2700.781494140625,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_071,NY,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2133.949951171875,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,ny_itemized_deductions;ny_itemized_deductions_max, +scenario_072,MI,2,4869.60009765625,0.0,True,False,37152.046875,32282.4453125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_085,PA,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2716.82470703125,282.02490234375,2322.760009765625,0.0,0.0,0.0,pa_ccw_medical_expenses, +scenario_092,AL,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,1311.300048828125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,al_deductions;al_itemized_deductions;al_medical_expense_deduction, +scenario_095,NJ,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,1688.2835693359375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,nj_main_income_tax;nj_medical_expense_deduction;nj_taxable_income;nj_taxable_income_before_property_tax_deduction;nj_total_deductions, +scenario_098,IL,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2537.800048828125,103.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_104,NY,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2734.800048828125,300.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,ny_itemized_deductions;ny_itemized_deductions_max, +scenario_107,OH,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,1276.8187255859375,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,oh_agi;oh_agi_person;oh_deductions;oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_amount;oh_insured_unreimbursed_medical_care_expenses;oh_joint_filing_credit_qualifying_income;oh_modified_agi;oh_taxable_income;oh_unreimbursed_medical_care_expense_deduction_person, +scenario_108,WI,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2360.60009765625,0.0,0.0,0.0,288.0,288.0,, +scenario_111,WA,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,1566.800048828125,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_114,VA,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,True,True,4441.857421875,2007.0576171875,10729.6123046875,3514.14501953125,0.0,0.0,va_deductions;va_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits;va_income_tax_before_refundable_credits;va_income_tax_if_claiming_non_refundable_eitc;va_income_tax_if_claiming_refundable_eitc;va_itemized_deductions;va_reduced_itemized_deductions;va_taxable_income,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits;state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits +scenario_115,AL,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,2584.800048828125,150.0,0.0,4.679999828338623,0.0,0.0,al_itemized_deductions;al_medical_expense_deduction, +scenario_118,NY,1,0.0,2434.800048828125,False,False,29.0,29.0,0.0,0.0,2868.0,2868.0,, +scenario_120,CT,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,True,True,0.0,0.0,40416.66796875,11917.18359375,0.0,0.0,, +scenario_122,MN,1,2434.800048828125,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,4746.66162109375,1025.54150390625,0.0,0.0,, diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/sweep_part_b.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/sweep_part_b.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..23f00029 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/verification/sweep_part_b.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1985 @@ +scenario_id,state,variable,medicare_household,reference,baseline,baseline_matches_reference,reference_impact_weight,baseline_impact_weight,excluded,excluded_reason,no_part_b,no_part_b_delta,no_part_b_moved,no_part_b_impact_weight,not_enrolled,not_enrolled_delta,not_enrolled_moved,not_enrolled_impact_weight,not_enrolled_direct,not_enrolled_direct_delta,not_enrolled_direct_moved,not_enrolled_direct_impact_weight,irmaa_from_2026_income,irmaa_from_2026_income_delta,irmaa_from_2026_income_moved,irmaa_from_2026_income_impact_weight 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"scenario_118", + "state": "NY", + "variable": "reduced_price_school_meals_eligible", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_118", + "state": "NY", + "variable": "snap", + "excluded": true, + "baseline": 2868.0, + "no_part_b": 2868.0, + "not_enrolled": 2868.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 2868.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 2868.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "state": "CT", + "variable": "free_school_meals_eligible", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "state": "CT", + "variable": "head_chip_eligible", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", 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"excluded": false, + "baseline": 1.0, + "no_part_b": 1.0, + "not_enrolled": 1.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 1.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 1.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_122", + "state": "MN", + "variable": "head_wic_eligible", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_122", + "state": "MN", + "variable": "reduced_price_school_meals_eligible", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_122", + "state": "MN", + "variable": "snap", + "excluded": false, + "baseline": 0.0, + "no_part_b": 0.0, + "not_enrolled": 0.0, + "not_enrolled_direct": 0.0, + "irmaa_from_2026_income": 0.0 + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..74a1277c --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,232 @@ +# Optional employer pass-through in the payroll tax references, October 5, 2026 + +This directory audits the state part of PolicyBench's US `payroll_tax` references in release `dashboard-data-20260930`. Four scored references count an employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets the employer deduct but does not require. The directory proposes two alternative records for those four outputs, excluding them or regenerating them, and changes no reference. Either one changes published scores, so they wait for Max's ruling (cos decision d972). + +## Recommendation + +Exclude the four outputs (scenario_032 MN, scenario_043 CO, scenario_081 MA, scenario_082 NY) from scoring in the next release, with `proposed_exclusions.json`. Then state in the payroll output's definition how these shares count, so a fresh run can score such households again; until then the board has no scored test of the line between mandatory and optional employee shares. + +- **Keep fails the repo's test.** A scored reference must follow from the stated facts under the law (2026-09-22 rule 1). All eight reviews of these four programs find that the premium is the employer's and that the law requires no amount of the employee: the employee pays only what the employer chooses to deduct, from $0 up to a cap. The frozen references count the cap. policyengine-us states that assumption for Minnesota and Massachusetts ("assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share"), and the prompt never states the employer's choice. The judges who annotated the 149 wrong answers on these outputs flagged no reference, but they were not asked to research the deduction law. +- **The reference turns on a definition the prompt does not settle.** "Mandatory employee state payroll taxes" has two defensible readings here. One is the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does: $0, the regenerated value. The other is the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it: the frozen value. The statutes frame the employer's choice both ways. Colorado treats an employer that deducts less as having "elected to pay" the rest; Minnesota has employees pay "the remaining portion, if any" above the employer's floor; New York says every employee "shall contribute ... to the extent and in the manner herein provided" and then only authorizes collection. The prompt's default for unlisted facts (treat them as false) cannot choose between the readings, because each statute frames a different act as the choice. A reference that turns on "an input or definition the prompt never states" is excluded (2026-09-22 rule 4; 2026-09-28 rule 4). The closest precedents were excluded under the same reason code: r24, who paid for the coverage behind listed disability benefits, an employer-arrangement fact; r25, whether the federal output includes the net investment income tax, a definition question; and r14, an unlisted 40 weekly hours, where the audit excluded rather than apply the zero default. +- **Regenerate is the alternative if Max reads "mandatory" strictly.** On that reading the frozen values are too high, and the regenerated value is the only one that no caveat in the law record moves: Acts 2026 c. 101, private plans, collective agreements and employer size each change the cap, never the $0 floor. `proposed_regenerations.json` is ready for that ruling. The Maryland output-scope adapter (2026-09-28 rule 3) is the form it would take, but not a precedent that decides the case: there the definition was explicit ("excluding local income ... taxes") and the adapter undid an engine change made after the freeze, while here the definition is the contested part and regeneration would change values that have stood since the first run. + +Board and model effects are not criteria in the rules, so they do not decide this; both options' effects are reported below. + +## How the reference is built + +These facts hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, as installed in the reference venv, plus `latest_final`, the system that built the published references. + +- `payroll_tax` is `spm_unit_payroll_tax` (`policybench/benchmark_specs.json`), which sums `employee_payroll_tax` over the SPM unit's tax units (`variables/household/expense/tax/spm_unit_payroll_tax.py`). +- `employee_payroll_tax` adds employee Social Security tax, employee Medicare tax, Additional Medicare Tax and `employee_state_payroll_tax` (`variables/gov/irs/tax/payroll/employee_payroll_tax.py`), unless the contributed `abolish_payroll_tax` parameter is set (it is not). +- `employee_state_payroll_tax` adds one `_employee_state_payroll_tax` per state for 14 states. Its documentation reads "Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions" (`variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py`). +- Each state aggregate adds its programs' employee contributions. For Minnesota, Massachusetts, Delaware, Maine and Vermont, the contribution's documentation says it assumes "the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share". Colorado's, New York's and Washington's say no such thing, though each computes the largest permitted share. The engine has an `employer_headcount` input, which sets employer-side contributions in several states and Delaware's contribution rate, but no input for the employer's deduction choice. +- The five optional contributions are read only by their state aggregates. `employee_payroll_tax` also feeds `spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings`, `household_tax_before_refundable_credits`, Alabama's itemized deductions, `fica_marginal_tax_rate` and `taxsim_tfica`, and California SDI also feeds Santa Clara County general assistance. No PolicyBench output other than `payroll_tax` moves when the five change (the sweep below). + +## Every payroll reference with a state component + +`scripts/decompose_payroll.py` recomputes all 100 payroll references, reproduces every one, and splits each into its federal and state parts. Twelve carry a state component; eleven are scored. + +| Output | State program | State part | Federal part | Reference | Employee share | Status | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---| +| scenario_005 | CA SDI | 5,590.00 | 30,454.00 | 36,044.00 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_022 | CA SDI | 684.26 | 4,026.58 | 4,710.83 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_023 | CA SDI | 226.75 | 1,334.36 | 1,561.12 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_099 | CA SDI | 2,145.00 | 12,622.50 | 14,767.50 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_028 | PA UC employee contribution | 42.00 | 4,590.00 | 4,632.00 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_123 | PA UC employee contribution | 101.50 | 11,092.50 | 11,194.00 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_120 | CT Paid Leave | 827.98 | 12,668.17 | 13,496.16 | mandatory | scored | +| scenario_008 | NJ TDI 50.92 + FLI 61.64 | 112.56 | 2,050.20 | 2,162.76 | mandatory | excluded (r05, NJ worker UI omitted) | +| scenario_032 | MN Paid Leave | 127.60 | 2,218.50 | 2,346.10 | **optional** | scored; proposed | +| scenario_043 | CO FAMLI | 17.99 | 312.74 | 330.73 | **optional** | scored; proposed | +| scenario_081 | MA PFML | 805.01 | 13,387.65 | 14,192.66 | **optional** | scored; proposed | +| scenario_082 | NY PFL 411.91 + DBL 31.20 | 443.11 | 7,664.92 | 8,108.03 | **optional** | scored; proposed | + +Amounts are the engine's (float32): Connecticut's 0.5% of $165,597 is $827.985, which the engine stores as $827.98. Every household with wages in a state with a modeled program carries that program. No household with wages lives in Delaware, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont or Washington; two Washington households (scenario_002 and scenario_111) have none. The four proposed references have had these values since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12, committed 2026-06-15). + +## The law, program by program + +The test is who owes the contribution. A **mandatory** employee contribution is one the statute puts on the worker and requires the employer to withhold. An **optional employer pass-through** is a premium the statute puts on the employer, which may deduct up to a share from wages and may instead pay it, so the employee amount runs from $0 to a cap at the employer's choice. `program_classification.json` has each program's citation, 2026 rate and engine amounts; `verification/law_research.json` has every record, quote, URL and verdict. + +| Program | Who owes it | Employee share | Class | Primary source | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| MN Paid Leave | Premiums "accrue and become payable by each employer"; the employer pays at least 50% (small employers: at least 0.22% of a 0.66% premium) | Employees pay "the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer": $0 to 0.44% | optional | [Minn. Stat. 268B.14](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14) subds. 1, 3, 5a | +| CO FAMLI | The employer "shall remit" premiums | The employer "may deduct up to 50 percent" (0.44%); one that deducts less "is considered to have elected to pay" it | optional | [C.R.S. 8-13.3-507](https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf)(2), (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A) | +| MA PFML | The employer "shall remit" contributions | The employer may deduct up to 100% of family and 40% of medical (0.46%) and may deduct less | optional | [M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6](https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6)(a), (c); 458 CMR 2.05(5)(c) | +| NY PFL and DBL | The covered employer provides the coverage; it pays the DBL cost beyond what it collects, and no employer is required to fund PFL | The employer "is authorized to collect" up to the caps (PFL 0.432%, at most $411.91; DBL $0.60 a week) | optional | [N.Y. WCL s. 209](https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209)(3)-(4), s. 210(1) | +| CT Paid Leave | Each employee "shall contribute" | The employer "shall deduct and withhold" 0.5%; there is no employer share | mandatory | [Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g](https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm)(b)(1), (3) | +| CA SDI | Each worker "shall pay worker contributions" | The employer must withhold 1.3% in trust; one that pays it instead still owes the worker's contribution, and the payment counts as wages | mandatory | [Cal. UIC s. 984](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.)(a)(1), s. 986(a) | +| PA UC | Each employee "shall pay contributions" | The employer "shall withhold, in trust" 0.07% of all wages | mandatory | [UC Law s. 301.4](https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3)(a)-(b) | +| NJ TDI and FLI | Each worker "shall contribute" | The employer "shall ... withhold in trust" (TDI 0.19%, FLI 0.23%) | mandatory | [N.J.S.A. 43:21-7](https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf)(d)(1)(E), (G) | + +One researcher per program read the statute, rules, agency pages and engine source; then two reviewers per program, one on the statute and one on the rules and agency guidance, tried to refute each classification, re-fetching the sources and re-running the engine amounts. None of the 16 reviews refuted a classification; eight of them cover the four optional programs. All ran as separate agents in one Claude Code workflow on 2026-10-05, with no reviewer outside it. + +For the record of an upstream fix, the same test classifies the modeled programs that reach no wage-earning household; these were researched once and not reviewed. Delaware Paid Leave, Maine PFML and the Vermont Child Care Contribution are optional pass-throughs; Washington Cares, Paid Leave Oregon, the Oregon statewide transit tax and Rhode Island TDI are mandatory; Washington PFML is mixed (the employer "may deduct" the employee share and "may elect to pay" it). + +Every 2026 rate, share and cap above was published before the 2026-07-03 reference freeze. Each engine amount equals the law's largest employee share within a cent, with two qualifications: New York's DBL cap is $0.60 a week, which the engine annualizes over 52 weeks ($31.20; a weekly payroll with 53 paydays in 2026 could reach $31.80), and the Massachusetts cap is subject to Acts 2026 c. 101 (below). + +What points the other way, all recorded in `verification/law_research.json`: + +- **Minnesota.** Subd. 3 says employees "must pay the remaining portion, if any", and subd. 5a(b)(2) that the employer "must make wage deductions as necessary". The Paid Leave office says that if an employer pays more than its required minimum, "this is additional compensation to the employee and is included in the employee's federal gross income as wages". The same office tells employers they "can deduct up to 0.44%" and "may choose to pay more than their required portion". +- **Colorado.** The FAMLI Division's employer page says "Most Colorado businesses should be deducting FAMLI premiums from all employees on their payroll", and its FAQ tells employers to "collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share". The same page says some employers "may choose not to deduct any premiums", and the statute says "may deduct". +- **Massachusetts.** The Department of Family and Medical Leave says employers "must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks" and "Most Massachusetts employers must make payroll withholdings"; c. 175M s. 1 counts payments by an employee as contributions, and s. 4(a)(ii) requires notice of the employee's contribution amount. The same page says employers "may choose to cover a larger share", and 458 CMR 2.05(5)(c) covers an employer that "opts to deduct a lower percentage". +- **New York.** WCL s. 209(1) says every employee "shall contribute to the cost of providing disability and ... family leave benefits", the Department of Financial Services' 2026 rate decision says "Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision", and the Workers' Compensation Board calls Paid Family Leave "fully paid for by employees". The same Board says an employer "is allowed, but not required" to collect, and s. 209(4) only authorizes collection. +- **California, for contrast.** An employer may pay a worker's SDI instead of deducting it (s. 986(a)(2)), but the worker still owes the contribution and the payment is grossed up as wages. In Minnesota an employer that pays more than its floor leaves the employee nothing owed: the employee pays "the remaining portion, if any". +- **Massachusetts, Acts 2026 c. 101** (approved 2026-06-12, before the freeze). Its s. 25 strikes "40" in lines 22, 33 and 39 of c. 175M s. 6 and inserts "100"; s. 26 strikes "100" in lines 25, 33 and 43 and inserts "40". Section 6 contains each figure exactly three times, in subsections (c), (d) and (e), so the swap reaches the deduction caps: up to 40% of family and 100% of medical. (Applied in sequence, line 33, subsection (d), would end with both figures at 40, which reads as a drafting slip.) Its s. 45 applies ss. 25-26 "for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026", while its s. 43(a) asks for guidance on "the impact for employers and employees in calendar year 2027". The department's rates page, captured 2026-06-17 after the act's approval, still showed the 0.46% maximum, and the department later dated the change 2027-01-01. Under the literal s. 45 reading, the most a large employer could deduct for scenario_081 in 2026 would be $1,351.02 (0.772%) rather than $805.01. The share stays optional either way, so this bears only on keeping the reference. + +## What the models answered + +`scripts/model_answers.py` scores every answer on the twelve outputs with `policybench.analysis.row_hit_scores`, the scorer the board uses (exact within $1), against the frozen reference and against the reference without the optional shares. Its frozen-reference scores equal the payload's own `exact` field on every row. + +| Output | Frozen | Without optional share | Exact now | Exact if regenerated | Most common answers | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| scenario_032 MN | 2,346.10 | 2,218.50 | 6 | 33 | 2,218.50 (29), 2,346.10 (6), 2,219 (4) | +| scenario_043 CO | 330.73 | 312.74 | 16 | 26 | 312.73 (18), 331.13 (9), 330.72 (7) | +| scenario_081 MA | 14,192.66 | 13,387.65 | 9 | 9 | 13,387.65 (7), 14,192.66 (6), 14,193 (3) | +| scenario_082 NY | 8,108.03 | 7,664.92 | 4 | 14 | 7,664.92 (8), 7,665 (6), 8,108.03 (3) | + +Every model's explanation on each output, classified by one reviewer per group of outputs (`verification/explanations.json`; 46 models per output): + +| Output | Include the state program | Leave it out as optional or employer-paid | Say the state has no employee payroll tax | Never mention it | Other or unparsed | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| scenario_032 MN | 7 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 3 | +| scenario_043 CO | 18 | 0 | 14 | 11 | 3 | +| scenario_081 MA | 22 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +| scenario_082 NY | 22 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 6 | +| scenario_005 CA SDI | 31 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +| scenario_022 CA SDI | 29 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 | +| scenario_023 CA SDI | 30 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | +| scenario_099 CA SDI | 29 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +| scenario_028 PA UC | 12 | 0 | 17 | 15 | 2 | +| scenario_123 PA UC | 15 | 0 | 16 | 11 | 4 | +| scenario_120 CT Paid Leave | 20 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 6 | + +The explanations do not separate the optional programs from the mandatory ones. Pennsylvania's and Connecticut's mandatory contributions draw the same mix of "no employee payroll tax" and silence as Minnesota's and Colorado's optional ones; California SDI is included far more often. + +If the four references were regenerated, 82 answers would newly be exact. Of these: + +- 1 gives the optional-deduction reason (Grok 4.7 on scenario_032: "paid-leave withholding is optional"); +- 36 say the state has no employee payroll tax, 25 of them "no mandatory" tax, which is true on the strict reading; +- 39 never mention a state program; +- 6 are other: four name the program and leave it out, among them Claude Opus 5.5 on scenario_081 ("excluded on the assumption the model does not include it"). + +66 of the 82 come from models that include a mandatory state program elsewhere. Regeneration would also take credit from 35 answers within $1 of the frozen references; 15 equal them to the cent, and 9 are Colorado answers of 331.13 at the 2025 rate of 0.45%. Exclusion removes all 184 rows, so it stops scoring both groups. + +Model by model, Claude models almost never answer the frozen value on the four outputs (1 of 40 answers), and the newer GPT models mostly do: GPT-6.1 Sol on all four, and GPT-6 Sol, GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol on three. GPT-6 Sol answers federal tax alone on Minnesota and the frozen value on Colorado, Massachusetts and New York, and matches all seven mandatory references. Claude Opus 5.5 answers federal tax alone on all four; it matches all four California SDI references but leaves out Connecticut's mandatory contribution "on the assumption that PolicyEngine does not model it" and misses both Pennsylvania outputs. Claude Fable 5.1 answers federal tax alone on all eleven scored outputs, mandatory ones included. Ox Alpha and Gemini 3.8 Flash answer federal tax alone on the four; Ox Alpha includes California SDI at the 2025 rate on scenario_022 and scenario_023. + +## Board impact + +`scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` copies the frozen run to scratch directories and scores it with `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs. The unchanged copy reproduces the published payload's modelStats (except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays), programStats, heatmap, globalWeights and failureModes exactly. Household-impact-weighted exact-match rate, the headline: + +| Published rank | Model | Published | Exclude (rank) | Regenerate (rank) | Payroll exact: published, exclude, regenerate | +|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---| +| 1 | GPT-6 Sol | 95.00 | 95.09 (1) | 94.63 (1) | 98, 95, 96 | +| 2 | Claude Opus 5.5 | 93.70 | 94.32 (2) | 94.39 (2) | 92, 92, 96 | +| 3 | GPT-5.6 Sol | 93.57 | 93.70 (3) | 93.27 (3) | 94, 91, 92 | +| 4 | GPT-6 Luna | 92.10 | 92.34 (5) | 92.07 (5) | 91, 89, 91 | +| 5 | Claude Sonnet 5.5 | 92.08 | 92.52 (4) | 92.44 (4) | 92, 91, 94 | +| 6 | GPT-6 Astra | 91.67 | 91.80 (6) | 91.18 (7) | 86, 83, 83 | +| 7 | Claude Fable 5.1 | 90.83 | 91.38 (7) | 91.52 (6) | 88, 88, 92 | +| 8 | GPT-6.1 Sol | 90.60 | 90.53 (9) | 89.91 (9) | 86, 82, 82 | +| 9 | Kimi K3 | 90.43 | 90.54 (8) | 89.92 (8) | 92, 89, 89 | +| 10 | GPT-5.6 Luna | 89.31 | 89.55 (10) | 89.13 (11) | 89, 87, 88 | +| 11 | Ox Alpha | 88.49 | 89.09 (11) | 89.18 (10) | 87, 87, 91 | +| 12 | Grok 4.7 | 88.34 | 88.61 (13) | 88.35 (13) | 92, 90, 92 | +| 13 | Inkling | 88.22 | 88.65 (12) | 88.37 (12) | 81, 80, 82 | + +Payroll exact counts are out of 99 scored payroll outputs (95 under exclusion). + +| | Keep | Exclude | Regenerate | +|---|---|---|---| +| Scored outputs per model | 1,928 | 1,924 | 1,928 | +| Headline change per model | none | -0.07 to +0.62 points (mean absolute 0.44) | -0.69 to +0.69 points (mean absolute 0.33) | +| GPT-6 Sol | 95.00%, first | 95.09%, first | 94.63%, first | +| GPT-6 Sol's lead over Claude Opus 5.5 | 1.31 points | 0.78 | 0.24 | +| Within-1% leader (lead over second) | GPT-6 Sol (0.97) | GPT-6 Sol (0.46) | Claude Opus 5.5 (0.09) | +| Models whose headline falls | none | GPT-6.1 Sol (-0.07, 8th to 9th) | 15, GPT-6.1 Sol most (-0.69) | +| Adjacent headline swaps | none | 5 | 10 | +| Bounded-score rank changes | none | 4 | 2 | +| Always-zero baseline | 69.98% | 70.53% | 69.98% | +| GPT-6 Sol's lead over always-zero | 25.02 points | 24.57 | 24.65 | +| Payroll exact across models | 78.5% | 81.0% | 79.5% | + +The exclusion swaps are Claude Sonnet 5.5 and GPT-6 Luna (#4/#5), Kimi K3 and GPT-6.1 Sol (#8/#9), Inkling and Grok 4.7 (#12/#13), Gemini 3 Flash Preview and Claude Opus 4.7 (#29/#30), and Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview and DeepSeek V4 Pro (#35/#36). Payroll exact rises under exclusion because most of the 184 removed rows were misses. + +**With the state income tax withholding proposal.** PolicyEngine/policybench#191 (cos d963) proposes three federal exclusions and may land in the same release. Its records alone reproduce its own figures here: GPT-6 Sol 95.61% (95.6146; #191's README rounds it to 95.62%), and Claude Sonnet 5.5 passes GPT-6 Luna. On top of them, exclusion takes GPT-6 Sol to 95.75% and Claude Opus 5.5 to 94.97%, with three adjacent swaps; regeneration takes them to 95.19% and 95.00%. `verification/leaderboard_impact.json` has every figure. + +## Method + +Run from this checkout. `` is `results/local/adds202609/triage` in the main checkout, which holds the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv; `` is the repo's `.venv`. + +1. **Decompose.** `scripts/decompose_payroll.py` recomputes every payroll reference on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final` (`../2026-09-28/fixes/`) and splits it into federal and per-program state parts (`verification/payroll_decomposition.csv`, `.json` and `.log`). All 100 reproduce the published reference, and the parts add to the total. +2. **Classify.** As above; `program_classification.json` is the result, and `verification/law_research.json` holds the records and verdicts. +3. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs with and without `fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py`, an output-scope adapter that drops the five reviewed optional contributions from the list behind `employee_state_payroll_tax` and changes no formula or rate. The baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references; the 19 excluded outputs that differ keep the values they were decided on, each listed in the sidecar's `excluded_outputs_rechecked`. The adapter moves four outputs, the four payroll references above, and no other output by even a cent (`verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv` and `.log`). `CountryTaxBenefitSystem` applies a reform twice to the same system (`policyengine_us/system.py`), so the adapter is written to be idempotent: its second pass leaves the already-flattened list unchanged. +4. **Propose.** `scripts/propose_changes.py` writes both alternatives in the format a release installs: `proposed_exclusions.json` (four `reference_depends_on_unlisted_input` records sharing one unlisted input) and `proposed_regenerations.json` (four regenerated values with the adapter's sha256). It refuses a sweep that moves any output the proposal does not cover, and an adapter whose program list differs from the reviewed optional programs. +5. **Answers.** `scripts/model_answers.py` writes `verification/model_answers.csv` and `model_answers_summary.json`. +6. **Impact.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --with-salt` writes `verification/leaderboard_impact*.csv`, `leaderboard_impact.json` and `.log`. It reads #191's records from its commit `8af912a0`. + +``` +PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH=$PWD /.venv-pe21517/bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/decompose_payroll.py --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification +PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH=$PWD /.venv-pe21517/bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification +PYTHONPATH=$PWD /bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py +PYTHONPATH=$PWD /bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/model_answers.py +PYTHONPATH=$PWD /bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch --with-salt +``` + +## Independent review + +Eight reviewers checked the work in a second Claude Code workflow on 2026-10-05, each in its own scratch directory and without changing the checkout. Their structured reports are in `verification/independent_reviews.json`. + +- **Differential impact.** One re-implemented both options without the CLI, once through `policybench.analysis`'s functions and once in its own numpy code. All 2,438 compared values match (largest rate difference 2.8e-14), as do 966 more for the #191 combinations. It found that #191's 95.62% is a rounding of 95.6146. +- **Differential sweep.** One recomputed all 1,984 outputs by a different mechanism: the five contributions set to 0 as household inputs, with no adapter. Every value is bit-identical to the audit's, and exactly the four payroll outputs move. +- **Mechanism.** One traced the engine path, found the double reform application at `system.py` lines 136 and 153, and hand-computed all 36 federal, state and total values and the four regenerated values from the household facts (largest gap $0.00066, float32 storage). It corrected three statements, fixed above: the engine readers of these variables, the Washington households, and the `employer_headcount` input. +- **Recommendation.** Two advocates built the strongest cases for keep and for regenerate, and a judge weighed them against the rules. The judge found exclusion best supported and the recommendation sound, but rejected several of the first draft's arguments. Board effects and which answers gain credit are not rule criteria; inclusion counts cannot tell ambiguous outputs from clear ones; and exclusion moves the board more than regeneration on most measures. This README now rests the recommendation on the rules and precedents above. +- **Release checklist.** One listed what a release adopting either option must change, by installing each option's records on scratch clones and running the tests (below). +- **Claims.** One checked 131 claims in the first draft and found five errors and thirteen imprecisions, all corrected here. + +## What a release adopting either option must also do + +The release-checklist reviewer found both options installable, and neither a records-only change. Either needs a release driver (`freeze_gpt61sol.py` refuses any change to the exclusions), a payload refreeze, and changes to tests that pin release 20260929 or 20260930 bytes. + +**Exclude:** + +1. Record the ruling and set `decided_on` on the four records to its date. +2. Insert the four records into `reference_exclusions.json` before the trailing scenario_023 record (`tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:221-232` requires the tail to equal `final_actions.json`'s audit exclusions), and put any new `derivation` text before the 2026-09-29 marker. +3. Add four developer adjudications (`adjudicated_failure_source: prompt_ambiguity`, `excluded_from_scoring: true`, `reference_verdict: unlisted_input`). Take `judged_on_utc` from the published audit tree (`results/local/gpt61sol-stage/gpt61sol-v1/audit/cases`: 2026-09-29 for 032, 081 and 082; 2026-09-22 for 043), not the older `unified_audit` verdicts. Add the 2026-10-05 wave to `date_conventions` and the judge evidence, and fill the 2026-09-29 wave's null commit (`tests/test_adjudications.py:639, 694-784`). +4. Apply the adjudications with `scripts/apply_adjudications.py`: 145 `llm_error` rows become `prompt_ambiguity` (38 on 032, 30 on 043, 36 on 081, 41 on 082); the four `parse_contract_failure` rows stay. +5. Reword the four case notes and the row annotations that call these shares mandatory (at least 47 of the 149). scenario_032's note is wrong under any option: it says "The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35%", but seven included it and six match the reference. scenario_043's gives FICA as $312.75 and then $312.73 (the engine's is $312.74). +6. Let `tests/test_reference_audit.py:288-300` and `tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:94-108` accept records decided after their waves; re-scope `tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:400-418`, which pins release 20260929's exclusion record. +7. Update the pinned counts: + +| Count | Now | Exclude | Exclude with #191 | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| Excluded outputs | 56 | 60 | 63 | +| Unlisted-input exclusions | 28 | 32 | 35 | +| Households with an exclusion | 39 | 41 | 42 | +| Scored outputs per model | 1,928 | 1,924 | 1,921 | +| Exclusions decided on 2.15.17 | 4 | 8 | 11 | +| Developer adjudications | 69 | 73 | 76 | +| Audited rows | 7,860 | 7,711 | 7,573 | +| Exact-match misses | 7,856 | 7,707 | 7,569 | +| `prompt_ambiguity` rows | 820 | 965 | 1,100 | +| Annotated rows on excluded outputs | 2,111 | 2,260 | 2,398 | +| Parse-contract failures (scored) | 652 | 648 | 645 | +| Leader's weighted exact (`app/tests/expandPage.test.ts`) | 95.003 | 95.093 | 95.749 | + +8. Refreeze the payload, analysis CSVs and manifest; update `app/src/data.artifact.json`, `data.versions.json` (60 exclusions: 52 on 1.755.4, 8 on 2.15.17) and `paperSnapshot.json`; keep the snapshot label. Uploading the release asset is Max's step. +9. Rescore the sensitivity evidence (`scripts/sensitivity_by_variable.py`, then `scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py`; Claude Fable 5.1 auto goes from 91.728 to 92.349). +10. Revise `paper/index.qmd` (the unlisted-input list near line 1087, the sweep sentence, and a review-table row beside "US payroll and overtime" at line 888), `docs/benchmark_card.md` and `docs/paper.md`; re-render and run `freeze_snapshot.py --rendered-only`. +11. If #191 lands in the same release, reword its scenario_081 record, which counts the $805.01 Massachusetts share as paid. + +**Regenerate**, beyond the refreeze, pointers, sensitivity and paper steps above: + +1. Write the four values into both reference CSVs (the run copy and `paper/snapshot/20260501/us_reference_outputs.csv`) and update `reference_csv_sha256`. +2. Decide how the sidecar records the adapter. `scripts/freeze_snapshot.py` requires a single `engine_upgrade` revision as the last one, and the Maryland adapter is a `fix_modules` entry inside it. Add `payroll_mandatory_scope.py` to `OUTPUT_SCOPE_ADAPTERS` and rewrite the reproducibility note that names only the Maryland adapter (`tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:897-935`). +3. Re-run the publication check on the newest policyengine-us with the adapter, as the engine rule requires; `latest_final_2170.csv` has no adapter. +4. Rewrite the four reference narratives, remove the 82 annotations that become exact, annotate the 35 new misses, and re-judge the four cases with Claude Opus 5.5 through `scripts/run_audit_claude.sh`. +5. The pinned exclusion and adjudication counts do not change; audited rows go to 7,813 and misses to 7,809; the leader pin becomes 94.629. + +## Related findings + +- **Engine.** policyengine-us has no input for the employer's deduction choice. An upstream change could add one, defaulting to the largest share, so users can model either reading; it would also need to settle Delaware, Maine, Vermont and Washington. The Connecticut rate parameter cites 31-49e, where 31-49g(b)(1) holds the rate. California's SDI rate parameter carries 1.3% back to 0000-01-01, which is wrong for earlier years (1.2% in 2025). The Massachusetts parameters do not encode Acts 2026 c. 101. None of these moves a benchmark number. +- **#191.** Its README rounds GPT-6 Sol's 95.6146% to 95.62%. Its scenario_081 record treats the $805.01 Massachusetts share as a contribution the household paid, which this audit classifies as optional. +- **SALT.** policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves state payroll contributions out of the federal SALT deduction, the defect #191 records. diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9b2d3e9d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +"""Candidate output-definition adapter: keep optional employer pass-through out of payroll_tax. + +PolicyBench defines payroll_tax as "annual household employee-side payroll tax: employee +Social Security tax, employee Medicare tax, Additional Medicare Tax, and mandatory +employee state payroll taxes. Exclude employer payroll taxes, ..." +(policybench/benchmark_specs.json, output prompt). + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 builds the output from ``employee_state_payroll_tax`` +(variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py), whose documentation +reads "Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions". +It adds one ``_employee_state_payroll_tax`` aggregate per state, and those add each +program's employee contribution. For programs whose premium the law places on the +employer, with the employer allowed but not required to deduct a share from wages, the +engine counts the largest share the employer may deduct. Its Minnesota variable says so: +"assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share" +(variables/gov/states/mn/tax/payroll/paid_leave/mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py). + +This module removes the reviewed programs of that kind that reach a benchmark household +(``OPTIONAL``, classified from primary law in ``../program_classification.json``) from +the list behind ``employee_state_payroll_tax``, so the scored output reads "mandatory" +as the amount the law requires of the employee. Only the list changes; no formula, rate +or amount changes, and every mandatory employee contribution stays in. It has the form +of the 2026-09-28 Maryland output-scope adapter +(reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_md_local_output_scope.py). + +It leaves in Delaware's, Maine's and Vermont's employee shares, which the same research +classifies as optional pass-throughs, and Washington's paid leave share (mixed). No +benchmark household earns wages in those states, and they were not adversarially +reviewed, so an upstream change would need to settle them first. +""" + +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform +from policyengine_core.variables import Variable + +FIX_ID = "payroll_mandatory_scope" +DESCRIPTION = ( + "Exclude employee shares the employer may but need not deduct from the payroll " + "tax output (output definition)" +) +AGGREGATE = "employee_state_payroll_tax" +# Employee shares the employer may, but need not, deduct from wages +# (program_classification.json, classification optional_employer_pass_through). +OPTIONAL = ( + "co_employee_famli_contribution", + "ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution", + "ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution", +) + + +def leaves(system) -> list[str]: + """Every program contribution under the engine's state aggregates, in order. + + CountryTaxBenefitSystem applies a reform twice to the same system, so on the second + pass the aggregate already lists programs; those are kept as they are. + """ + out = [] + for name in system.variables[AGGREGATE].adds: + if name.endswith("_" + AGGREGATE): + out.extend(system.variables[name].adds) + else: + out.append(name) + return out + + +class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + listed = self.variables[AGGREGATE].adds + if not any(name.endswith("_" + AGGREGATE) for name in listed): + # Second pass: the list already holds the kept programs. + assert not set(OPTIONAL) & set(listed) + return + current = leaves(self) + unknown = sorted(set(OPTIONAL) - set(current)) + if unknown: + raise ValueError(f"not under {AGGREGATE}: {unknown}") + kept = [name for name in current if name not in OPTIONAL] + + class employee_state_payroll_tax(Variable): + adds = kept + + self.update_variable(employee_state_payroll_tax) + assert list(self.variables[AGGREGATE].adds) == kept diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..94c8cc6b --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json @@ -0,0 +1,346 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "date": "2026-10-05", + "definition": "payroll_tax: annual household employee-side payroll tax: employee Social Security tax, employee Medicare tax, Additional Medicare Tax, and mandatory employee state payroll taxes. Exclude employer payroll taxes, FUTA, employer unemployment-insurance taxes, and self-employment tax (policybench/benchmark_specs.json)", + "engine": "policyengine-us 2.15.17: employee_state_payroll_tax adds one _employee_state_payroll_tax per state, and each adds the program contributions listed under engine_variables", + "test": "Who owes the contribution under the statute. mandatory_employee_withholding: the statute puts the contribution on the worker and requires the employer to withhold it. optional_employer_pass_through: the statute makes the premium the employer's, and lets the employer deduct up to a share from wages without requiring it, so the employee amount runs from zero to the cap at the employer's choice.", + "method": "One researcher per program read the statute, rules and agency pages and the engine source (2026-10-05). Two independent reviewers per program, one reading the statute and one the rules and agency guidance, then tried to refute each classification; review records each verdict. verification/law_research.json holds every record, quote, URL and verdict.", + "programs": [ + { + "key": "MN", + "program": "Minnesota Paid Leave", + "engine_variables": [ + "mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a", + "law_url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Minnesota Paid Leave premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer\" (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 1); the employer must pay at least 50 percent (small employers: at least a quarter of the full rate, subd. 5a), and employees pay through wage deductions only \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer\" (subd. 3), so the employee share runs from 0 to 0.44% of wages at the employer's choice.", + "rate_2026": "0.88% total (0.66% for small employers); employee share at most 0.44% of wages up to the Social Security base", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_032" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_032": 127.6 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "CO", + "program": "Colorado FAMLI", + "engine_variables": [ + "co_employee_famli_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2), (3)(b) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)", + "law_url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Colorado FAMLI premiums are remitted by the employer (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2)), which \"may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium\" from wages (507(5)); an employer that deducts less is considered to have elected to pay the rest (7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)).", + "rate_2026": "0.88% total; employee share at most 0.44% of wages up to the Social Security base", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_043" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_043": 17.99 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "MA", + "program": "Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave", + "engine_variables": [ + "ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a), (c) and (d); 458 CMR 2.05(5)", + "law_url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Massachusetts PFML contributions are remitted by the employer (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a)), which may deduct up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution from wages (s. 6(c)) and may choose to deduct less (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)).", + "rate_2026": "0.88% total (0.18% family, 0.70% medical); employee share at most 0.46% of wages up to the Social Security base. Acts 2026 c. 101 (approved 2026-06-12) s. 25 strikes \"40\" in lines 22, 33 and 39 of s. 6 and s. 26 strikes \"100\" in lines 25, 33 and 43; s. 6 holds each figure exactly three times, in 6(c), 6(d) and 6(e), so the swap reaches the deduction caps (40% family, 100% medical). Its s. 45 applies ss. 25-26 \"for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026\"; its s. 43(a) asks for guidance on \"the impact for employers and employees in calendar year 2027\"; the DFML rates page captured 2026-06-17, after approval, still showed 0.46%, and DFML later (after the freeze) dated the change 2027-01-01. Under the literal s. 45 reading the 2026 cap would be 0.772% ($1,351.02 for scenario_081).", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_081" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_081": 805.01 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "NY", + "program": "New York Paid Family Leave and Disability Benefits", + "engine_variables": [ + "ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution", + "ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1)", + "law_url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "employee_share_rule_text": "New York's covered employer must provide disability and Paid Family Leave coverage; it pays the disability cost beyond what it collects (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law s. 210(1)), no employer is required to fund Paid Family Leave (s. 209(3)(b)), and the employer \"is authorized to collect\" employee contributions up to the statutory caps by payroll deduction (s. 209(4)). The Workers' Compensation Board says an employer \"is allowed, but not required\" to collect them.", + "rate_2026": "PFL 0.432% of wages, at most $411.91; DBL 0.5% of wages, at most $0.60 a week ($31.20 over 52 weeks; a weekly payroll with 53 paydays in 2026 could reach $31.80)", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_082" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_082": 443.11 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "CT", + "program": "Connecticut Paid Leave", + "engine_variables": [ + "ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1) and (3)", + "law_url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Each Connecticut employee \"shall contribute\" a percentage of subject earnings (Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1)), and each employer \"shall deduct and withhold\" it (31-49g(b)(3)); there is no employer share.", + "rate_2026": "0.5% of wages up to the Social Security base", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_120" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_120": 827.98 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "CA", + "program": "California State Disability Insurance", + "engine_variables": [ + "ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code ss. 984(a)(1), 986(a) and 2901", + "law_url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Each California worker \"shall pay worker contributions\" (Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 984(a)(1)), and each employer must withhold them in trust (s. 986(a)(1)); an employer that pays them for the worker still owes the worker's contribution, and the payment counts as wages (s. 986(a)(2)).", + "rate_2026": "1.3% of all wages, no cap", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_005", + "scenario_022", + "scenario_023", + "scenario_099" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_005": 5590.0, + "scenario_022": 684.26, + "scenario_023": 226.75, + "scenario_099": 2145.0 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "PA", + "program": "Pennsylvania Unemployment Compensation employee contribution", + "engine_variables": [ + "pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "Pennsylvania UC Law s. 301.4(a)-(b), 43 P.S. 781.4", + "law_url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Each Pennsylvania employee \"shall pay contributions\" on all wages (UC Law s. 301.4(a)), and each employer \"shall withhold, in trust\" them (s. 301.4(b)).", + "rate_2026": "0.07% of all wages, no cap", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_028", + "scenario_123" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_028": 42.0, + "scenario_123": 101.5 + }, + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + } + } + }, + { + "key": "NJ", + "program": "New Jersey TDI and FLI worker contributions", + "engine_variables": [ + "nj_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution", + "nj_employee_family_leave_insurance_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(E) and (G)", + "law_url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "employee_share_rule_text": "Each New Jersey worker \"shall contribute\" to the TDI and FLI accounts (N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)), and each employer \"shall ... withhold in trust\" the contributions (43:21-7(d)(1)(E)).", + "rate_2026": "TDI 0.19% and FLI 0.23% of wages up to $171,100", + "benchmark_outputs": [ + "scenario_008" + ], + "engine_amounts": { + "scenario_008": 112.56 + }, + "note": "scenario_008's payroll output is already excluded (r05_nj_worker_ui: the engine omits the NJ worker UI and workforce contributions).", + "review": { + "statute": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + }, + "administration": { + "refuted": false, + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding" + } + } + } + ], + "programs_without_a_benchmark_household": { + "note": "No benchmark household with wages lives in these states (two Washington households, scenario_002 and scenario_111, have no wages), so no reference depends on them. Each was researched once (verification/law_research.json, key OTHER) and not adversarially reviewed; payroll_mandatory_scope.py does not touch them.", + "programs": [ + { + "program": "Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) premium, employee share", + "state": "WA", + "engine_variables": [ + "wa_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mixed_or_unclear", + "law_citation": "RCW 50A.10.030(3)(a) (version effective until Jan. 1, 2028)", + "law_url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "quote": "For medical leave premiums, an employer may deduct from the wages of each employee up to the full amount of the premium required.", + "confidence": "medium" + }, + { + "program": "Washington WA Cares Fund (long-term services and supports) premium", + "state": "WA", + "engine_variables": [ + "wa_employee_long_term_care_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "RCW 50B.04.080(2)(a)", + "law_url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=50B.04.080", + "quote": "The employer must collect from the employees the premiums provided under this section through payroll deductions and remit the amounts collected to the employment security department.", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Oregon Paid Leave Oregon (family and medical leave insurance), employee contribution", + "state": "OR", + "engine_variables": [ + "or_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "ORS 657B.150(2)(b)", + "law_url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors657B.html", + "quote": "An employer shall deduct employee contributions from the wages of each employee in an amount that is equal to 60 percent of the total rate determined by the director.", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Oregon statewide transit tax", + "state": "OR", + "engine_variables": [ + "or_employee_statewide_transit_tax" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "ORS 320.550(2)", + "law_url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors320.html", + "quote": "A tax is imposed at the rate of one-tenth of one percent of the wages of an employee who is:", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Rhode Island Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI/TCI) employee contribution", + "state": "RI", + "engine_variables": [ + "ri_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution" + ], + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "law_citation": "R.I. Gen. Laws § 28-40-1(b) (version effective Jan. 1, 2026)", + "law_url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-1_28-40-1.htm", + "quote": "Each employee shall contribute ... an amount equal to the fund cost rate times the wages paid by the employer to the employee up to the taxable wage base", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Delaware Paid Leave (family and medical leave insurance) contributions, employee share", + "state": "DE", + "engine_variables": [ + "de_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "19 Del. C. § 3705(d) (same wording in (e) and (f))", + "law_url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "quote": "From the wages of an employee for whom a contribution is required under paragraph (b)(1) of this section, an employer shall deduct not greater than 50% of the contribution required for the employee.", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Maine Paid Family and Medical Leave premium, employee share", + "state": "ME", + "engine_variables": [ + "me_employee_paid_leave_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "26 M.R.S. § 850-F(5)(A)", + "law_url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/legis/statutes/26/title26sec850-F.html", + "quote": "An employer with 15 or more employees may deduct up to 50% of the premium required for an employee by subsection 3 from that employee's wages and shall remit 100% of the combined premium contribution", + "confidence": "high" + }, + { + "program": "Vermont Child Care Contribution, employee share", + "state": "VT", + "engine_variables": [ + "vt_employee_child_care_contribution" + ], + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "law_citation": "32 V.S.A. § 10553(a)(1)", + "law_url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "quote": "Each employer shall pay the Child Care Contribution on all covered wages paid to each of the employer’s employees", + "confidence": "high" + } + ] + } +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_exclusions.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_exclusions.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e7d98f14 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_exclusions.json @@ -0,0 +1,61 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "status": "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's date. proposed_regenerations.json and proposed_exclusions.json are alternatives: a release adopts one of them, not both.", + "classification": "program_classification.json", + "sweep": "verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv", + "basis": "A reference that turns on an input or definition the prompt never states is excluded (reference_audit/2026-09-22 rule 4; reference_audit/2026-09-28 rule 4). The input here is an employer-arrangement fact with no engine input, as in r24 (who paid for the coverage behind listed disability benefits) and r25 (whether the federal output includes the net investment income tax), both recorded as reference_depends_on_unlisted_input.", + "exclusions": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer\" (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 1); the employer must pay at least 50 percent (small employers: at least a quarter of the full rate, subd. 5a), and employees pay through wage deductions only \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer\" (subd. 3), so the employee share runs from 0 to 0.44% of wages at the employer's choice. The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution $127.60), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 2346.10009765625, + "alternative_value": 2218.5, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a. The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Colorado FAMLI premiums are remitted by the employer (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2)), which \"may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium\" from wages (507(5)); an employer that deducts less is considered to have elected to pay the rest (7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)). The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (co_employee_famli_contribution $17.99), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 330.7310791015625, + "alternative_value": 312.74322509765625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2), (3)(b) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. Massachusetts PFML contributions are remitted by the employer (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a)), which may deduct up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution from wages (s. 6(c)) and may choose to deduct less (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)). The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution $805.01), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 14192.662109375, + "alternative_value": 13387.65234375, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a), (c) and (d); 458 CMR 2.05(5). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. New York's covered employer must provide disability and Paid Family Leave coverage; it pays the disability cost beyond what it collects (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law s. 210(1)), no employer is required to fund Paid Family Leave (s. 209(3)(b)), and the employer \"is authorized to collect\" employee contributions up to the statutory caps by payroll deduction (s. 209(4)). The Workers' Compensation Board says an employer \"is allowed, but not required\" to collect them. The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution $31.20, ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution $411.91), as policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and payroll_mandatory_scope).", + "frozen_value": 8108.02734375, + "alternative_value": 7664.91748046875, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by classifying every state program in the payroll references from primary law (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other output. The law: N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1). The frozen value has been the reference since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_regenerations.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_regenerations.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..864aa1e9 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_regenerations.json @@ -0,0 +1,86 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "status": "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's date. proposed_regenerations.json and proposed_exclusions.json are alternatives: a release adopts one of them, not both.", + "classification": "program_classification.json", + "sweep": "verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv", + "basis": "The benchmark's output definitions hold (reference_audit/2026-09-28 rule 3), reading 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes' as the amount the law requires of the employee. An output-scope adapter applies that reading, in the form of latest_md_local_output_scope.py.", + "regenerated": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "state": "MN", + "frozen_value": 2346.10009765625, + "regenerated_value": 2218.5, + "removed": { + "mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution": 127.6 + }, + "cause": "payroll_mandatory_scope", + "basis": "The output's definition counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes and excludes employer payroll taxes. Minnesota Paid Leave premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer\" (Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 1); the employer must pay at least 50 percent (small employers: at least a quarter of the full rate, subd. 5a), and employees pay through wage deductions only \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer\" (subd. 3), so the employee share runs from 0 to 0.44% of wages at the employer's choice. The frozen reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct (mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution $127.60); the regenerated value leaves it out and keeps employee Social Security and Medicare tax.", + "law": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subds. 1, 3 and 5a", + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "fix_module": "payroll_mandatory_scope.py", + "fix_module_sha256": "e139fe6f4dded9723721def83b03facc466bff19930532024d6262166846dc54", + "applied_together_with": [ + "latest_final" + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "state": "CO", + "frozen_value": 330.7310791015625, + "regenerated_value": 312.74322509765625, + "removed": { + "co_employee_famli_contribution": 17.99 + }, + "cause": "payroll_mandatory_scope", + "basis": "The output's definition counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes and excludes employer payroll taxes. Colorado FAMLI premiums are remitted by the employer (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2)), which \"may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium\" from wages (507(5)); an employer that deducts less is considered to have elected to pay the rest (7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)). The frozen reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct (co_employee_famli_contribution $17.99); the regenerated value leaves it out and keeps employee Social Security and Medicare tax.", + "law": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2), (3)(b) and (5); 7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)", + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "fix_module": "payroll_mandatory_scope.py", + "fix_module_sha256": "e139fe6f4dded9723721def83b03facc466bff19930532024d6262166846dc54", + "applied_together_with": [ + "latest_final" + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "state": "MA", + "frozen_value": 14192.662109375, + "regenerated_value": 13387.65234375, + "removed": { + "ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution": 805.01 + }, + "cause": "payroll_mandatory_scope", + "basis": "The output's definition counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes and excludes employer payroll taxes. Massachusetts PFML contributions are remitted by the employer (M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a)), which may deduct up to 100 percent of the family and 40 percent of the medical contribution from wages (s. 6(c)) and may choose to deduct less (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)). The frozen reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution $805.01); the regenerated value leaves it out and keeps employee Social Security and Medicare tax.", + "law": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a), (c) and (d); 458 CMR 2.05(5)", + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "fix_module": "payroll_mandatory_scope.py", + "fix_module_sha256": "e139fe6f4dded9723721def83b03facc466bff19930532024d6262166846dc54", + "applied_together_with": [ + "latest_final" + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "variable": "payroll_tax", + "state": "NY", + "frozen_value": 8108.02734375, + "regenerated_value": 7664.91748046875, + "removed": { + "ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution": 31.2, + "ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution": 411.91 + }, + "cause": "payroll_mandatory_scope", + "basis": "The output's definition counts mandatory employee state payroll taxes and excludes employer payroll taxes. New York's covered employer must provide disability and Paid Family Leave coverage; it pays the disability cost beyond what it collects (N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law s. 210(1)), no employer is required to fund Paid Family Leave (s. 209(3)(b)), and the employer \"is authorized to collect\" employee contributions up to the statutory caps by payroll deduction (s. 209(4)). The Workers' Compensation Board says an employer \"is allowed, but not required\" to collect them. The frozen reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct (ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution $31.20, ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution $411.91); the regenerated value leaves it out and keeps employee Social Security and Medicare tax.", + "law": "N.Y. Workers' Compensation Law ss. 209(3)-(4) and 210(1)", + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "fix_module": "payroll_mandatory_scope.py", + "fix_module_sha256": "e139fe6f4dded9723721def83b03facc466bff19930532024d6262166846dc54", + "applied_together_with": [ + "latest_final" + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/decompose_payroll.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/decompose_payroll.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..519a7132 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/decompose_payroll.py @@ -0,0 +1,232 @@ +"""Split every PolicyBench payroll_tax reference into its federal and state parts. + +The payroll_tax output is ``spm_unit_payroll_tax``, which sums ``employee_payroll_tax`` +over the SPM unit's tax units. In policyengine-us 2.15.17 that adds employee Social +Security tax, employee Medicare tax, Additional Medicare Tax and +``employee_state_payroll_tax`` (variables/gov/irs/tax/payroll/employee_payroll_tax.py). +The state part adds one ``_employee_state_payroll_tax`` aggregate per state, each of +which adds that state's program contributions +(variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py). + +The script rebuilds every household with ``Scenario.to_pe_household`` on the system that +built the published references (policyengine-us 2.15.17 plus ``latest_final``), checks +that ``spm_unit_payroll_tax`` reproduces every published payroll_tax reference, and +records each household's federal and per-program state contributions. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/decompose_payroll.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +YEAR = 2026 +OUTPUT = "payroll_tax" +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} +FEDERAL = ( + "employee_social_security_tax", + "employee_medicare_tax", + "additional_medicare_tax", +) +# Leaf programs under each _employee_state_payroll_tax in policyengine-us 2.15.17. +STATE_PROGRAMS = { + "CA": ("ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution",), + "CO": ("co_employee_famli_contribution",), + "CT": ("ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution",), + "DE": ("de_employee_paid_leave_contribution",), + "MA": ("ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution",), + "ME": ("me_employee_paid_leave_contribution",), + "MN": ("mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution",), + "NJ": ( + "nj_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution", + "nj_employee_family_leave_insurance_contribution", + ), + "NY": ( + "ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution", + "ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution", + ), + "OR": ( + "or_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "or_employee_statewide_transit_tax", + ), + "PA": ("pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution",), + "RI": ("ri_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution",), + "VT": ("vt_employee_child_care_contribution",), + "WA": ( + "wa_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "wa_employee_long_term_care_contribution", + ), +} +LEAVES = tuple(v for programs in STATE_PROGRAMS.values() for v in programs) + +_SYSTEM = None + + +def _assemble_fixes() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="payroll_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _system(): + global _SYSTEM + if _SYSTEM is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + fix_dir = _assemble_fixes() + path = fix_dir / "latest_final.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + _SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + return _SYSTEM + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def decompose(scenario_json: str) -> dict: + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(), situation=build_situation(scenario)) + pe_variable = _pe_variable_for_output(OUTPUT, "us") + total = float( + _extract_person_value(sim.calculate(pe_variable, YEAR), scenario, OUTPUT) + ) + parts = {name: float(sim.calculate(name, YEAR).sum()) for name in FEDERAL} + parts["employee_state_payroll_tax"] = float( + sim.calculate("employee_state_payroll_tax", YEAR).sum() + ) + leaves = {name: float(sim.calculate(name, YEAR).sum()) for name in LEAVES} + people = [] + for person_id, person in build_situation(scenario)["people"].items(): + people.append(person_id) + wages = [float(x) for x in sim.calculate("employment_income", YEAR)] + return { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "payroll_tax": total, + "parts": parts, + "state_leaves": {k: v for k, v in leaves.items() if v != 0.0}, + "employment_income": wages, + "people": people, + } + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) + args = parser.parse_args() + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + payroll = reference[reference["variable"] == OUTPUT].set_index("scenario_id") + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {e["scenario_id"]: e for e in exclusions if e["variable"] == OUTPUT} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(payroll.index)] + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(decompose, scenarios["scenario_json"].tolist())) + results.sort(key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for r in results: + sid = r["scenario_id"] + ref = float(payroll.loc[sid, "value"]) + federal = sum(r["parts"][name] for name in FEDERAL) + state = r["parts"]["employee_state_payroll_tax"] + rows.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": r["state"], + "reference": ref, + "recomputed": r["payroll_tax"], + "matches_reference": abs(r["payroll_tax"] - ref) <= 1e-3, + **{name: r["parts"][name] for name in FEDERAL}, + "federal_total": federal, + "employee_state_payroll_tax": state, + "parts_add_up": abs(federal + state - r["payroll_tax"]) <= 1e-3, + "state_programs": ";".join( + f"{k}={v:.2f}" for k, v in sorted(r["state_leaves"].items()) + ), + "leaves_add_up": abs(sum(r["state_leaves"].values()) - state) <= 1e-3, + "excluded": sid in excluded, + "excluded_reason": excluded[sid]["reason_code"] + if sid in excluded + else "", + "household_wages": sum(r["employment_income"]), + } + ) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "payroll_decomposition.csv", index=False) + (out_dir / "payroll_decomposition.json").write_text( + json.dumps({"policyengine_us": engine, "households": results}, indent=1) + "\n" + ) + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(table)} payroll outputs") + print(f"reproduce published reference: {int(table['matches_reference'].sum())}") + print(f"federal + state = total: {int(table['parts_add_up'].sum())}") + print(f"leaves add to state part: {int(table['leaves_add_up'].sum())}") + with_state = table[table["employee_state_payroll_tax"].abs() > 0] + print(f"outputs with a state component: {len(with_state)}") + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 200): + print( + with_state[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "state", + "reference", + "federal_total", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "state_programs", + "excluded", + ] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + bad = table[~table["matches_reference"]] + if not bad.empty: + print("MISMATCH", bad[["scenario_id", "reference", "recomputed"]]) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..eb8f9fd7 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,401 @@ +"""Score the frozen run as published, with the proposed exclusions, and with regenerated references. + +Copies the frozen run (predictions, references, scenarios, exclusions) to scratch +directories and never writes the snapshot. Three copies are scored with +``python -m policybench.cli analyze``, the command the freeze runs: + +``published`` + Unchanged. It must reproduce the published payload's scoring: every modelStats field + except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, and programStats, heatmap, + globalWeights and failureModes exactly. The script stops if it does not. +``exclude`` + The records in ``proposed_exclusions.json`` appended to the exclusion record. +``regenerate`` + The references in ``proposed_regenerations.json`` written into the reference CSV + (and the copy's sidecar digest updated to match, as a release's sidecar would be). + +Sensitivity: the open state income tax withholding proposal (PolicyEngine/policybench#191, +decision d963) excludes three federal outputs and may land in the same release. With +``--with-salt`` the script also scores that proposal alone (``salt``) and each option on +top of it (``exclude+salt``, ``regenerate+salt``), reading its records from the pinned +commit ``SALT_COMMIT``; the ``*+salt`` deltas are measured against ``salt``. + + PYTHONPATH= /bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch \\ + [--with-salt] +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +EXCLUSIONS = HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json" +REGENERATIONS = HERE / "proposed_regenerations.json" +OUT_DIR = HERE / "verification" +RUN_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +METRICS = ( + "exact", + "within1pct", + "within5pct", + "within10pct", + "score", + "outputGroupScore", +) +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") +RANKED = ("exact", "within1pct", "score") +VARIANTS = ("exclude", "regenerate") +OUTPUT = "payroll_tax" +SALT_COMMIT = "8af912a062dd7ae1373de4c043ae2727d3406930" +SALT_RECORDS = "reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json" + + +def salt_exclusions() -> list[dict]: + """The #191 proposal's records, read from its pinned commit.""" + shown = subprocess.run( + ["git", "show", f"{SALT_COMMIT}:{SALT_RECORDS}"], + cwd=ROOT, + check=True, + capture_output=True, + text=True, + ) + return json.loads(shown.stdout)["exclusions"] + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def always_zero(run_dir: Path) -> dict[str, float]: + """The always-zero baseline, as paper_results._always_zero_weighted_rates scores it.""" + import numpy as np + + from policybench.analysis import weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model + from policybench.reference_exclusions import scored_reference_for + from policybench.spec import get_output_ids, output_group_id + + truth, _ = scored_reference_for(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + headline = set(get_output_ids("us", "headline")) + truth = truth[truth["variable"].map(output_group_id).isin(headline)] + truth = truth.reset_index(drop=True) + truth["scenario_id"] = truth["scenario_id"].astype(str) + scenarios = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "scenarios.csv") + market = dict( + zip( + scenarios["scenario_id"].astype(str), + pd.to_numeric(scenarios["total_income"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0), + ) + ) + predictions = truth[["scenario_id", "variable"]].copy() + predictions["model"] = "Always zero" + predictions["prediction"] = np.zeros(len(truth)) + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model(truth, predictions, market, country="us") + return { + "exact": float(scored["weighted_exact"].mean()) * 100, + "within1pct": float(scored["weighted_within_1pct"].mean()) * 100, + } + + +def stage(target: Path, variant: str | None) -> Path: + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, target / name) + parts = set((variant or "").split("+")) - {""} + extra = [] + if "exclude" in parts: + extra += json.loads(EXCLUSIONS.read_text())["exclusions"] + if "salt" in parts: + extra += salt_exclusions() + if extra: + record = json.loads((target / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend(extra) + (target / "reference_exclusions.json").write_text( + json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + if "regenerate" in parts: + changes = json.loads(REGENERATIONS.read_text())["regenerated"] + reference = pd.read_csv(target / "reference_outputs.csv", dtype={"value": str}) + index = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]).index + for change in changes: + key = (change["scenario_id"], change["variable"]) + row = index.get_loc(key) + if abs(float(reference.at[row, "value"]) - change["frozen_value"]) > 1e-9: + raise SystemExit(f"{key}: frozen value differs from the reference CSV") + reference.at[row, "value"] = repr(float(change["regenerated_value"])) + reference.to_csv(target / "reference_outputs.csv", index=False) + before = (RUN / "reference_outputs.csv").read_text().splitlines() + after = (target / "reference_outputs.csv").read_text().splitlines() + changed = [i for i, (a, b) in enumerate(zip(before, after)) if a != b] + if len(before) != len(after) or len(changed) != len(changes): + raise SystemExit( + f"regenerated CSV changes {len(changed)} lines, expected {len(changes)}" + ) + meta_path = target / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) + meta["reference_csv_sha256"] = sha256(target / "reference_outputs.csv") + meta_path.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2) + "\n") + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + out = run_dir / "analysis" + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(out), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + payload = json.loads(dashboard.read_text()) + return payload["countries"]["us"] + + +def check_reproduces_published(base: dict) -> None: + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS: + if published[key] != base[key]: + raise SystemExit(f"unchanged copy does not reproduce published {key}") + a = {m["model"]: m for m in published["modelStats"]} + b = {m["model"]: m for m in base["modelStats"]} + if set(a) != set(b): + raise SystemExit("model sets differ") + for model, row in a.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != b[model].get(field): + raise SystemExit(f"{model}.{field}: {value} != {b[model].get(field)}") + + +def ranks(frame: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> pd.Series: + return frame[metric].rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +def payroll_exact_counts(payload: dict) -> pd.Series: + """Each model's count of exact payroll_tax rows among scored outputs.""" + counts: dict[str, int] = {} + for outputs in payload["scenarioPredictions"].values(): + cells = outputs.get(OUTPUT, {}) + for model, cell in cells.items(): + if cell.get("scored"): + counts[model] = counts.get(model, 0) + int(cell["exact"] == 100.0) + return pd.Series(counts) + + +def compare(base: dict, other: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + b = pd.DataFrame(other["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in METRICS: + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_proposed"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + for metric in RANKED: + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] = ranks(a, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"] = ranks(b, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_change"] = ( + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] - rows[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"] + ) + rows["n_published"] = a["n"] + rows["n_proposed"] = b["n"] + rows["payroll_exact_published"] = payroll_exact_counts(base) + rows["payroll_exact_proposed"] = payroll_exact_counts(other) + rows["payroll_exact_delta"] = ( + rows["payroll_exact_proposed"] - rows["payroll_exact_published"] + ) + return rows.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + + +def program_rows(base: dict, other: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + b = pd.DataFrame(other["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in ("exact", "score", "n"): + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_proposed"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + return rows[(rows.filter(like="_delta").abs() > 1e-9).any(axis=1)] + + +def summarize( + models: pd.DataFrame, + programs: pd.DataFrame, + base: dict, + other: dict, + zero: dict, + changed: list[str], +) -> dict: + leader = models.sort_values("exact_rank_proposed").index[0] + return { + "changed_outputs": changed, + "scored_outputs": { + "published": int(base["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + "proposed": int(other["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["exact_delta"].max()), + "mean": float(models["exact_delta"].mean()), + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": float(models["score_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["score_delta"].max()), + }, + **{ + f"{metric}_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_published"]), + "proposed": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row[f"{metric}_rank_change"] != 0 + } + for metric in RANKED + }, + "always_zero_baseline": zero, + "leader_margin_over_always_zero_exact": { + "model": leader, + "published": float( + models.loc[leader, "exact_published"] - zero["published"]["exact"] + ), + "proposed": float( + models.loc[leader, "exact_proposed"] - zero["proposed"]["exact"] + ), + }, + "top5_exact_published": models.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + .head(5) + .index.tolist(), + "top5_exact_proposed": models.sort_values("exact_rank_proposed") + .head(5) + .index.tolist(), + "payroll_exact_delta_by_model": { + model: int(delta) + for model, delta in models["payroll_exact_delta"].items() + if delta != 0 + }, + "payroll_program": programs.loc[[OUTPUT]].to_dict(orient="index") + if OUTPUT in programs.index + else {}, + } + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--with-salt", action="store_true") + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + + base_dir = stage(scratch / "published", None) + base = analyze(base_dir) + check_reproduces_published(base) + zero_published = always_zero(base_dir) + + OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + summary = {"published_reproduced": True} + plan = [(variant, base, zero_published) for variant in VARIANTS] + if args.with_salt: + salt_dir = stage(scratch / "salt", "salt") + salt = analyze(salt_dir) + salt_zero = always_zero(salt_dir) + plan.insert(0, ("salt", base, zero_published)) + plan += [(f"{variant}+salt", salt, salt_zero) for variant in VARIANTS] + summary["salt_commit"] = SALT_COMMIT + for variant, reference_payload, reference_zero in plan: + run_dir = stage(scratch / variant, variant) + other = analyze(run_dir) + models = compare(reference_payload, other) + programs = program_rows(reference_payload, other) + zero = {"published": reference_zero, "proposed": always_zero(run_dir)} + records = [] + if "exclude" in variant: + records += json.loads(EXCLUSIONS.read_text())["exclusions"] + if "regenerate" in variant: + records += json.loads(REGENERATIONS.read_text())["regenerated"] + if variant == "salt": + records += salt_exclusions() + changed = [f"{r['scenario_id']}/{r['variable']}" for r in records] + models.to_csv( + OUT_DIR / f"leaderboard_impact_{variant.replace('+', '_plus_')}_models.csv" + ) + programs.to_csv( + OUT_DIR + / f"leaderboard_impact_{variant.replace('+', '_plus_')}_programs.csv" + ) + summary[variant] = summarize( + models, programs, reference_payload, other, zero, changed + ) + summary[variant]["measured_against"] = ( + "salt" if variant.endswith("+salt") else "published" + ) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 100): + print(f"\n=== {variant} ===") + print( + models[ + [ + "exact_published", + "exact_proposed", + "exact_delta", + "exact_rank_published", + "exact_rank_proposed", + "score_published", + "score_proposed", + "score_rank_published", + "score_rank_proposed", + "payroll_exact_published", + "payroll_exact_proposed", + ] + ].round(4) + ) + print(programs.round(4)) + (OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text( + json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/model_answers.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/model_answers.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..dd70cbf0 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/model_answers.py @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +"""Score every model's answer on each payroll_tax output that carries a state component. + +Reads the published payload's scenarioPredictions for payroll_tax and scores each answer +with ``policybench.analysis.row_hit_scores`` (the $1 exact tolerance and the 1/5/10% +bands the board uses) against two references: + +``published`` + The frozen reference: federal employee payroll tax plus every state program + policyengine-us 2.15.17 puts in ``employee_state_payroll_tax``. +``no_optional`` + The frozen reference less the state programs classified in + ``program_classification.json`` as optional employer pass-through (the employer may, + but need not, deduct the employee share from wages). +``federal_only`` + Employee Social Security, Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax alone. + +The published-reference scores must equal the payload's own per-row ``exact`` field; the +script stops if any differs. + + PYTHONPATH= /bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/model_answers.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import gzip +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +from policybench.analysis import row_hit_scores + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +OUT = HERE / "verification" +OUTPUT = "payroll_tax" + + +def main() -> None: + payload = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + decomposition = pd.read_csv(OUT / "payroll_decomposition.csv") + classification = json.loads((HERE / "program_classification.json").read_text()) + optional = { + leaf + for program in classification["programs"] + if program["classification"] == "optional_employer_pass_through" + for leaf in program["engine_variables"] + } + affected = decomposition[decomposition["employee_state_payroll_tax"].abs() > 0] + + rows = [] + summary = [] + for _, d in affected.iterrows(): + sid = d["scenario_id"] + leaves = dict( + (k, float(v)) + for k, v in ( + item.split("=") for item in str(d["state_programs"]).split(";") if item + ) + ) + optional_amount = sum(v for k, v in leaves.items() if k in optional) + references = { + "published": float(d["reference"]), + "no_optional": float(d["reference"]) - optional_amount, + "federal_only": float(d["federal_total"]), + } + predictions = payload["scenarioPredictions"][sid][OUTPUT] + counts = {name: 0 for name in references} + within1 = {name: 0 for name in references} + for model, cell in sorted(predictions.items()): + if abs(cell["groundTruth"] - references["published"]) > 1e-3: + raise SystemExit(f"{sid}: payload groundTruth differs from the CSV") + pred = cell["prediction"] if cell["parsed"] else None + row = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": d["state"], + "model": model, + "prediction": pred, + "scored": cell["scored"], + } + for name, ref in references.items(): + hit = row_hit_scores(OUTPUT, ref, pred) + row[f"exact_{name}"] = hit["exact"] + row[f"within1pct_{name}"] = hit["within_1pct"] + counts[name] += int(hit["exact"]) + within1[name] += int(hit["within_1pct"]) + if abs(row["exact_published"] * 100 - cell["exact"]) > 1e-9: + raise SystemExit(f"{sid}/{model}: exact differs from the payload") + rows.append(row) + n = len(predictions) + frame = pd.DataFrame([r for r in rows if r["scenario_id"] == sid]) + answered = frame["prediction"].dropna().round(2).value_counts() + summary.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": d["state"], + "scored": bool(not d["excluded"]), + "state_programs": d["state_programs"], + "optional_amount": round(optional_amount, 2), + "reference_published": round(references["published"], 2), + "reference_no_optional": round(references["no_optional"], 2), + "reference_federal_only": round(references["federal_only"], 2), + "models": n, + "exact_published": counts["published"], + "exact_no_optional": counts["no_optional"], + "exact_federal_only": counts["federal_only"], + "within1pct_published": within1["published"], + "within1pct_no_optional": within1["no_optional"], + "within1pct_federal_only": within1["federal_only"], + "modal_answers": { + f"{value:.2f}": int(count) + for value, count in answered.head(4).items() + }, + } + ) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(OUT / "model_answers.csv", index=False) + (OUT / "model_answers_summary.json").write_text( + json.dumps({"outputs": summary}, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_columns", 30): + print( + pd.DataFrame(summary).drop(columns=["modal_answers"]).to_string(index=False) + ) + for item in summary: + print(item["scenario_id"], item["modal_answers"]) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f9d6e896 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py @@ -0,0 +1,255 @@ +"""Draft both candidate records for payroll outputs that count an optional employer pass-through. + +Reads the sweep (``sweep_payroll_scope.py``) and the program classification +(``program_classification.json``) and writes two alternative proposals, each in the +format a release would install: + +``proposed_regenerations.json`` + One entry per scored output the output-scope adapter moves: the frozen reference, + the regenerated value (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final + + fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py), and the program law. A release that adopts it + writes the values into the reference CSV and records the adapter in the reference + sidecar. The Maryland adapter is a ``fix_modules`` entry inside the single + ``engine_upgrade`` revision, and the freeze requires that revision to be last, so a + release must choose how to record this one (README, release checklist). +``proposed_exclusions.json`` + One ``reference_depends_on_unlisted_input`` record per such output, in the format of + the frozen run's ``reference_exclusions.json``. All four share one unlisted input: + whether the employer deducts the employee share, which the law leaves to the employer, + and so which reading of "mandatory employee state payroll taxes" applies. + +Both change published scores, so they wait for Max's ruling; ``decided_on`` is the date +the proposal was drafted and a release sets it to the ruling's date. + + python reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import hashlib +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv" +DECOMPOSITION = HERE / "verification/payroll_decomposition.csv" +CLASSIFICATION = HERE / "program_classification.json" +ADAPTER = HERE / "fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py" +DRAFTED_ON = "2026-10-05" +ENGINE = "policyengine-us 2.15.17" +OUTPUT = "payroll_tax" +UNLISTED_INPUT = ( + "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or disability " + "premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require, which decides whether " + "that share is a mandatory employee state payroll tax" +) +STATUS = ( + f"proposed {DRAFTED_ON}; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling " + "(cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's " + "date. proposed_regenerations.json and proposed_exclusions.json are alternatives: " + "a release adopts one of them, not both." +) + + +def money(value: float) -> str: + return f"${value:,.2f}" + + +def program_for(leaf: str, programs: list[dict]) -> dict: + for program in programs: + if leaf in program["engine_variables"]: + return program + raise KeyError(leaf) + + +def adapter_optional() -> set[str]: + """The programs payroll_mandatory_scope.py drops, read from its source.""" + import ast + + tree = ast.parse(ADAPTER.read_text()) + for node in tree.body: + if isinstance(node, ast.Assign) and any( + isinstance(t, ast.Name) and t.id == "OPTIONAL" for t in node.targets + ): + return set(ast.literal_eval(node.value)) + raise SystemExit("the adapter defines no OPTIONAL") + + +def main() -> None: + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP) + decomposition = pd.read_csv(DECOMPOSITION).set_index("scenario_id") + classification = json.loads(CLASSIFICATION.read_text()) + programs = classification["programs"] + adapter_sha = hashlib.sha256(ADAPTER.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + # The adapter drops exactly the reviewed programs classified as optional. + reviewed_optional = { + leaf + for program in programs + if program["classification"] == "optional_employer_pass_through" + and all(not v["refuted"] for v in program["review"].values()) + for leaf in program["engine_variables"] + } + if adapter_optional() != reviewed_optional: + raise SystemExit( + f"adapter OPTIONAL {sorted(adapter_optional())} differs from the reviewed " + f"optional programs {sorted(reviewed_optional)}" + ) + + moved = sweep[sweep["moved_any"]] + unexpected = moved[(moved["variable"] != OUTPUT) | moved["excluded"]] + if not unexpected.empty: + raise SystemExit( + f"the adapter moves outputs this proposal does not cover:\n{unexpected}" + ) + + regenerated, excluded = [], [] + for row in moved.itertuples(): + d = decomposition.loc[row.scenario_id] + leaves = dict( + (k, float(v)) + for k, v in ( + item.split("=") for item in str(d["state_programs"]).split(";") + ) + ) + removed = { + leaf: amount + for leaf, amount in leaves.items() + if program_for(leaf, programs)["classification"] + == "optional_employer_pass_through" + } + cited = [] + for leaf in removed: + program = program_for(leaf, programs) + if program not in cited: + cited.append(program) + law = "; ".join(p["law_citation"] for p in cited) + removed_text = ", ".join( + f"{leaf} {money(amount)}" for leaf, amount in sorted(removed.items()) + ) + if abs(sum(removed.values()) - (row.final - row.scoped)) > 0.01: + raise SystemExit( + f"{row.scenario_id}: removed programs do not explain the move" + ) + why = " ".join(p["employee_share_rule_text"] for p in cited) + regenerated.append( + { + "scenario_id": row.scenario_id, + "variable": OUTPUT, + "state": row.state, + "frozen_value": float(row.final), + "regenerated_value": float(row.scoped), + "removed": removed, + "cause": "payroll_mandatory_scope", + "basis": ( + f"The output's definition counts mandatory employee state payroll " + f"taxes and excludes employer payroll taxes. {why} The frozen " + f"reference counts the largest share the employer may deduct " + f"({removed_text}); the regenerated value leaves it out and keeps " + f"employee Social Security and Medicare tax." + ), + "law": law, + "engine_version": ENGINE, + "fix_module": "payroll_mandatory_scope.py", + "fix_module_sha256": adapter_sha, + "applied_together_with": ["latest_final"], + } + ) + excluded.append( + { + "scenario_id": row.scenario_id, + "variable": OUTPUT, + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": ( + f"The prompt defines payroll_tax as employee Social Security, " + f"Medicare and Additional Medicare Tax plus mandatory employee state " + f"payroll taxes, and says to exclude employer payroll taxes. {why} " + f"The reference reads 'mandatory' as the employee share the statute " + f"sets, withheld unless the employer elects to pay it, and counts " + f"the largest share the employer may deduct ({removed_text}), as " + f"policyengine-us assumes. Read as the amount the law requires of " + f"the employee whatever the employer does, which is $0, the output " + f"is employee federal payroll tax alone: the alternative value " + f"(policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final and " + f"payroll_mandatory_scope)." + ), + "frozen_value": float(row.final), + "alternative_value": float(row.scoped), + "engine_version": ENGINE, + "decided_on": DRAFTED_ON, + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": UNLISTED_INPUT, + "note": ( + f"Found {DRAFTED_ON} by classifying every state program in the " + f"payroll references from primary law " + f"(reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/program_classification.json) " + f"and sweeping all 1,984 outputs with the programs classified as " + f"optional employer pass-through left out of employee state payroll " + f"tax; that moves this output alone in its household and no other " + f"output. The law: {law}. The frozen value has been the reference " + f"since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12)." + ), + } + ) + + common = { + "schema_version": 1, + "status": STATUS, + "classification": "program_classification.json", + "sweep": "verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv", + } + (HERE / "proposed_regenerations.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + **common, + "basis": ( + "The benchmark's output definitions hold (reference_audit/2026-09-28 " + "rule 3), reading 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes' as the " + "amount the law requires of the employee. An output-scope adapter " + "applies that reading, in the form of latest_md_local_output_scope.py." + ), + "regenerated": regenerated, + }, + indent=2, + ) + + "\n" + ) + (HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + **common, + "basis": ( + "A reference that turns on an input or definition the prompt never " + "states is excluded (reference_audit/2026-09-22 rule 4; " + "reference_audit/2026-09-28 rule 4). The input here is an " + "employer-arrangement fact with no engine input, as in r24 (who paid " + "for the coverage behind listed disability benefits) and r25 (whether " + "the federal output includes the net investment income tax), both " + "recorded as reference_depends_on_unlisted_input." + ), + "exclusions": excluded, + }, + indent=2, + ) + + "\n" + ) + for item in regenerated: + print( + item["scenario_id"], + item["state"], + money(item["frozen_value"]), + "->", + money(item["regenerated_value"]), + item["removed"], + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..f1a1a5fb --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py @@ -0,0 +1,269 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference with and without the payroll output-scope adapter. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions and the Maryland +output-scope adapter), on households built by ``Scenario.to_pe_household``. The script +recomputes every output under it and checks the result against the published reference +CSV. It then recomputes every output under ``latest_final`` plus +``fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py``, which drops the employee shares an employer may but +need not deduct from ``employee_state_payroll_tax``, and lists every output that moves. + +Any output other than payroll_tax that reads employee payroll tax (for example through +``spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings`` or ``household_tax_before_refundable_credits``) would +move too, so the sweep covers all 1,984 outputs, not only payroll_tax. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/sweep_payroll_scope.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +ADAPTER = HERE / "fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py" +YEAR = 2026 +BINARY_SUFFIXES = ("_eligible",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} + +_SYSTEMS: dict[str, object] = {} + + +def _load(path: Path, name: str): + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules[name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def _fix_dir() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="payroll_scope_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _system(name: str): + if name not in _SYSTEMS: + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + final = _load(_fix_dir() / "latest_final.py", "latest_final").reform + if name == "final": + _SYSTEMS[name] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=final) + else: + adapter = _load(ADAPTER, "payroll_mandatory_scope").reform + + class combined(Reform): + def apply(self): + final.apply(self) + adapter.apply(self) + + _SYSTEMS[name] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=combined) + return _SYSTEMS[name] + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) -> dict[str, float]: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + + values = {} + for variable in variables: + pe_variable = _pe_variable_for_output(variable, "us") + values[variable] = float( + _extract_person_value(sim.calculate(pe_variable, YEAR), scenario, variable) + ) + return values + + +def sweep_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = build_situation(scenario) + result = {"scenario_id": scenario.id, "state": scenario.state} + for name in ("final", "scoped"): + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(name), situation=situation) + result[name] = _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + result[f"{name}_state_payroll"] = float( + sim.calculate("employee_state_payroll_tax", YEAR).sum() + ) + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in exclusions} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + + jobs = [] + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(jobs)} households", flush=True) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(sweep_scenario, jobs)) + results.sort(key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for result in results: + sid = result["scenario_id"] + for variable, base in result["final"].items(): + key = (sid, variable) + ref = float(indexed[key]) + scoped = result["scoped"][variable] + entry = excluded.get(key) + binary = variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + rows.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": result["state"], + "variable": variable, + "reference": ref, + "final": base, + "final_matches_reference": ( + round(base) == round(ref) if binary else abs(base - ref) <= 1e-3 + ), + "scoped": scoped, + "delta": scoped - base, + "moved_any": scoped != base, + "moved_over_tolerance": ( + round(scoped) != round(base) + if binary + else abs(scoped - base) > TOLERANCE + ), + "excluded": entry is not None, + "excluded_reason": entry["reason_code"] if entry else "", + } + ) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "sweep_payroll_scope.csv", index=False) + households = { + r["scenario_id"]: { + "state": r["state"], + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": r["final_state_payroll"], + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": r["scoped_state_payroll"], + } + for r in results + } + (out_dir / "sweep_payroll_scope_households.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "policyengine_us": engine, + "adapter_sha256": hashlib.sha256(ADAPTER.read_bytes()).hexdigest(), + "households": households, + }, + indent=1, + sort_keys=True, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + scored = table[~table["excluded"]] + mismatched = table[~table["final_matches_reference"]] + # Excluded outputs decided before the 2.15.17 upgrade keep their decided values; the + # sidecar's engine_upgrade revision lists each one's 2.15.17 value. + rechecked = { + (item["scenario_id"], item["variable"]): item["value_on_2_15_17"] + for revision in meta["revisions"] + for item in revision.get("excluded_outputs_rechecked", []) + } + unexplained = [ + (row.scenario_id, row.variable) + for row in mismatched.itertuples() + if not row.excluded + or abs(rechecked.get((row.scenario_id, row.variable), float("nan")) - row.final) + > 1e-3 + ] + print( + f"baseline: {len(table)} outputs, {len(scored)} scored; " + f"{int((~mismatched['excluded']).sum())} scored outputs differ from the " + f"published reference; {int(mismatched['excluded'].sum())} excluded outputs " + f"keep their decided values ({len(rechecked)} rechecked in the sidecar); " + f"unexplained differences: {unexplained}" + ) + if unexplained: + raise SystemExit("the baseline does not reproduce the published references") + moved = table[table["moved_any"]] + print( + f"\nadapter: {len(moved)} outputs move at all, " + f"{int(table['moved_over_tolerance'].sum())} by more than ${TOLERANCE:.0f} " + f"({int((table['moved_over_tolerance'] & ~table['excluded']).sum())} scored)" + ) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 220, "display.max_rows", 500): + print( + moved[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "state", + "variable", + "reference", + "final", + "scoped", + "delta", + "excluded", + ] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/explanations.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/explanations.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0f9663f7 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/explanations.json @@ -0,0 +1,3462 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-10-05", + "method": "Claude Code workflow wf_cecd10dd-abe: four reviewers, each classifying every model explanation on a group of payroll outputs into one category with a quote of at most 30 words.", + "outputs": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_005", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 31, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 2, + "excluded_silently": 8, + "other_or_unparsed": 5 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 33296.55, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI (employee-paid, no wage cap since 2024) at 1.2% on $430,000 = $2,898.35... actual: 1.2% * 430,000 = $5,160?" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 30454, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 41859.6, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI = $1,531.64 + $1,531.64 = $3,063.28; CA ETT = 0.08% on first $7,000 = $5.60 \u00d7 2 = $11.20." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 35446.6, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI (1.2% in 2026, no wage cap) on head: 180000*0.012 = $2,160; spouse: 250000*0.012 = $3,000." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 28586.6, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "this exceeds my value, so final: SS+Medicare+AddlMedicare only without SDI uncertainty = 30454." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 30437, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "Plus CA SDI 1.2% on wages... included in mandatory state payroll tax portion already reflected; total \u2248 $30,437." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 36044, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI: $5,590 (1.3% \u00d7 $430,000, uncapped)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 34851.4, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "(4) CA mandatory employee payroll taxes: CA State Disability Insurance (SDI) \u2014 2026 rate is 1.2% (no wage cap as of 2024+ reform)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 27306, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "CA has no mandatory employee payroll tax like SDI in this model... Total payroll tax = 29,691.40+4,730=34,421.40. Rechecking final consolidated estimate: value = 27306." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 36044, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at an assumed 1.3% of $430k is $5,590." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 19108, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 34342, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "+ CA SDI ($4,080) = $34,342." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 33962.54, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI $3,675.94 (2 x 1.2% of $153,164)" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 35595.4, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI 5,160 (1.2% on all wages)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 33827, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI tax of $4,730 (1.1% of total wages)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 31398, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 34258, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Additional Medicare Tax, and CA SDI on total wage bases after ESI deductions." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 33700, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and CA State Disability Insurance (SDI) at 1.1% on all wages." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 26588, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 34091.05, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA State Disability Insurance ($1,904.22 for Head, $2,678.72 for Spouse at 1.1% uncapped)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 33814, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California State Disability Insurance (SDI)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 29691.4, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 34274.42, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI (1.2%, cap $165,384 per worker): Head $1,984.61 + Spouse $1,984.61 = $3,969.22." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 30454, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "California has no mandatory employee state payroll tax, total $30,454" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 22295.1, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 13905, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus employee Additional Medicare Tax where applicable and CA state employee payroll taxes; employer payroll taxes excluded." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 35558.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and CA SDI of $5,160 at 1.2% of wages." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 36667, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and approximately 1.3% California SDI on wages." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 35614, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI withholding." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 35614, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and estimated California employee SDI." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 35128.91, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI at 1.3% is $5,416.20" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 35614, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California employee SDI of $5,160." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 36044, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at 1.3% of 430000 in wages is 5590" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 35128.91, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI at 1.3%" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 34515, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 34525, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "+ CA SDI 4226 (1.2% capped)" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 34704, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and CA SDI is 1.2% up to the SDI wage limit" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 36044, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at 1.3% with no wage cap is $5,590." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 31456, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.1% on 83067 base per person = 1827." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 32773, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus CA SDI (~1.2% on capped wages)." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 35614, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "employee CA SDI at 1.2% with no wage cap is $5,160." + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "fully offset by deductions/exemptions in the tax calculation, yielding zero net employee-side payroll tax in this estimate." + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 31084, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No mandatory CA employee payroll tax modeled." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 33061, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI: 1.1% on wage base $153,164 (projected 2026; using approximate) for each earner." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 25474, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_008", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 23, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 1, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 4, + "excluded_silently": 11, + "other_or_unparsed": 7 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 2178.85, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ mandatory employee payroll taxes on wages: unemployment insurance 0.3825% ($102.51) + family leave insurance ~0.09% ($24.12)" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 2052.12, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ payroll tax approximately $2.12 minimum assessment, total value = $2052.12" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "FLI ~0.33% but uncertain; UI ~0.3825%. Using just federal FICA: 1661.60+388.60 = 2050.20." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "NJ mandatory employee payroll taxes (UI/SDI/FLI) are not modeled here, so 0." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "(NJ employee UI/TDI/FLI not included in this measure)" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid", + "quote": "NJ SDI/TDI is employer-paid; NJ FLI employee contribution is a separate deduction but is not a 'payroll tax' in the traditional sense" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "0 (NJ employee tax not separately itemized due to cap uncertainty) = 2,050.20." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "NJ employee payroll taxes are not modeled." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 2101.12, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ TDI (0.10% = $26.80) + NJ FLI (0.09% = $24.12)" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 2204.3, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ employee state payroll taxes $154.10" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 2188, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "approximately 0.515% for New Jersey's mandatory SUI and FLI taxes ($138.02)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 2188, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus applicable New Jersey state payroll taxes (SUI/FLI/TDI) of roughly $138." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 2174, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated New Jersey employee state payroll taxes (UI/FLI) of $123.80." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 2188.22, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus NJ mandatory employee SUI/FLI taxes of $138.02" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 2189.52, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus New Jersey state payroll taxes (FLI/SUI/WF) total $2,189.52" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or NJ employee state payroll tax modeled" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 4097, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no additional Medicare tax or mandatory state employee payroll tax is indicated" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 1525, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 2302.79, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ employee UI/WF/SWF, TDI, and FLI contributions at 0.9425%*26800=252.59" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 2303.46, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "$253.26 of NJ employee payroll contributions" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 2314.18, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated mandatory New Jersey employee payroll contributions are 263.98." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 2252.54, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated mandatory NJ employee payroll contributions are $202.34" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 2276.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated mandatory NJ unemployment, workforce, disability and family-leave contributions total 226.46" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 2314.18, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated mandatory NJ employee payroll contributions are $263.98." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 2276.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "approximately 226.46 of mandatory New Jersey employee contributions" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 2265.27, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated NJ employee unemployment/workforce, disability, and family-leave contributions total 215.07" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 2098, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Plus NJ mandatory employee TDI + FLI at combined 0.18% = $48.24." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 2228, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ mandatory employee UI (0.3825%) plus TDI/FLI add about $178." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 2314.18, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "New Jersey mandatory employee UI/workforce 0.425%, TDI 0.23%, and FLI 0.33% total 0.985% of wages, or $263.98." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no additional Medicare or state payroll taxes." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 2177, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NJ mandatory employee taxes (UI ~0.3825% and FLI ~0.09%) add about $127." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 2308.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "New Jersey employee UI/workforce, temporary disability, and family-leave contributions add 257.95" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 2050, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory employee NJ payroll tax modeled." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 2152.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "So NJ employee payroll = 0.3825% \u00d7 $26,800 = $102.51." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 2050.2, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 29, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 2, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 4, + "excluded_silently": 9, + "other_or_unparsed": 2 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 4557.61, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI employee tax at 1.2% (no wage cap in 2026) = $631.62" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 4026.58, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 4028.27, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No mandatory California state payroll taxes apply." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 2026 rate 1.2% = $631.62 (no wage cap in CA SDI as of 2024+)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 4026.58, + "category": "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid", + "quote": "CA has no mandatory employee payroll tax (SDI applies but is excluded as not required here per instructions to count Social Security and Medicare)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 4026, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CA has no mandatory employee income-based payroll tax modeled here." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 4711, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI is about 1.3% \u00d7 52,635 = 684." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 4605.57, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California mandatory employee-side payroll tax: SDI (State Disability Insurance) rate for 2026 is 1.1% on all wages (CA removed the wage base cap)" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 3264.37, + "category": "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid", + "quote": "CA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (SDI is voluntary/paid by employer in aggregate but here treated as not applicable as a separate mandatory employee tax" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 4710.84, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at an assumed 1.3% = 684.26." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 4026.61, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "Wages below Social Security wage base and below Additional Medicare threshold, no state payroll tax included." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 4605, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI tax: $579." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% $631.62" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% * 52,635 = 631.62" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 4605.57, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI tax (1.1% of $52,635 = $578.99, as the SDI cap is removed)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 4027, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 4606, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and 1.1% CA SDI ($579) on $52,635 of wages." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 4606, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and CA SDI tax of 1.1% ($579) on gross wages of $52,635." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 4027, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 4500.3, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA State Disability Insurance tax (0.9% of $52,635 = $473.72)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 4500.29, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI on wages of $52,635." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 4026.58, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI (mandatory state payroll tax): 1.2% \u00d7 $52,635 = $631.62." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 4026, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 4030, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax at this income level and no state employee payroll tax in CA." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 3308, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated California SDI at 1.2%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 4710.84, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California SDI of 1.3% on $52,635 of wages" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 4711, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California SDI withholding is about $684." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 4027, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 4710.83, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "1.3% California SDI for 2026." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated California SDI at 1.2%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 4711, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California employee SDI at 1.3% adds 684" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 4710.83, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and 1.3% California SDI." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 4027, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at 1.2%*52635=632" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Employee-side FICA and mandatory CA SDI on wages of 52,635" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "mandatory CA SDI at 1.2% is $631.62." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at projected 1.2% rate 52635*0.012=632" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at about 1.2% = $632" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 4658.2, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus mandatory CA employee SDI at 1.2% with no wage cap = 631.62" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 4026, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 4658, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus mandatory California employee SDI at 1.2% = $632." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 4605.57, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 2026 rate ~1.1% on wages up to ~$153,164 = $52,635 * 0.011 = $578.99." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 4026.58, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory employee state payroll taxes apply." + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_023", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 30, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 5, + "excluded_silently": 7, + "other_or_unparsed": 4 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 1531.4, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA employee SDI 1.13% (2026 rate, no wage cap) = $197.11." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 1334.39, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 1335.85, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "California does not have a mandatory state payroll income tax on wages." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 1543.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% (2026) = $209.32." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 1467.32, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 0.9% = $156.99." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 1546, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus CA SDI 1.2% = $209.32." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 1561.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at about 1.3% of $17,443 is $226.76." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 1526.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI: $17,443 \u00d7 1.1% = $191.87." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 1334.39, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "California has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (CA SDI was repealed as a separate wage-base tax structure change is not assumed here" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 1334.39, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "CA SDI is not included." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 716, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No Additional Medicare Tax and no state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 827.83, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI tax = 1.2% * $9,354 = $112.25." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 1526.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI 1.1% x 17,443 = 191.87" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 1543.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "6.2% Social Security + 1.45% Medicare + 1.2% CA SDI" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 1526.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California State Disability Insurance (estimated at 1.1% of $17,443 = $191.87)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 1334.44, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 818, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "FICA (Social Security and Medicare) and California State Disability Insurance (SDI) are calculated on taxable gross wages" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 818, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "1.1% CA SDI on FICA-taxable wages of $9,354" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 1595, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus California SDI, totaling $1,595." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 1526.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "1.1% CA SDI tax ($191.87)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 809.12, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and California State Disability Insurance (SDI) on taxable wages total $809.12." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 1526.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus California SDI at 1.1% ($191.87)" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 1543.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI (mandatory employee state payroll tax): 1.2% \u00d7 $17,443 = $209.32." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 1329, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "California has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 1375.966, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory state payroll tax in California." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 1208, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 1543.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated California SDI at 1.2%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 1561.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California SDI withholding at 1.3% is $226.76" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 1561.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated 2026 California SDI at 1.3% is $226.76" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 1334.39, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 1561.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI adds 1.3%." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 1544, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California employee SDI at an estimated 1.2% adds about $209" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 1561.15, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus California SDI at 1.3%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 837.18, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus California SDI at 1.3%, produce the annual payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 1334, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 1544, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus CA SDI mandatory employee payroll tax at projected 1.2% = 209.32" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 1544, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus mandatory California SDI at the 1.2% rate ($209.32)" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 1543.71, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at the carried 1.2% rate is 209.32." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 1283, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA mandatory employee SDI tax 1.1% = $161." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 828, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at 1.2% adds $112.25" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 1334, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 1544, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "mandatory CA employee SDI 1.2% \u00d7 $17,443 = $209." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 1334.39, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "California SDI is a mandatory state payroll tax: 1.1% \u00d7 $17,443 = $191.87. Grand total = $1,334.39 + $191.87 = $1,526.26. value = 1334.39" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 261.65, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_028", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 12, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 17, + "excluded_silently": 15, + "other_or_unparsed": 2 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 5730, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Total FICA $4,590 plus PA employee SUI $42 = $4,632." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA state payroll tax: $0 (PA has no employee-side income tax withheld from wages for state purposes" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Wait - PA has employee unemployment tax 0.07%. Total = 3720+870+42=4632." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee payroll tax counted here." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Pennsylvania has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (PA has a flat state income tax but no separate employee payroll tax)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Pennsylvania has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/UI employee contribution)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No PA employee state payroll tax is modeled." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare (below 200,000) and no PA state employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "with no Additional Medicare Tax or state payroll tax = $4,590" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the Pennsylvania employee unemployment compensation tax ($60,000 x 0.07% = $42)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania's employee-side SUI tax of 0.07% ($42) on the $60,000 gross wages" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania imposes an employee-paid state unemployment compensation tax of 0.07% ($42)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus PA employee unemployment compensation tax of 0.07% ($42), totaling $4,632" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and 0.07% PA SUI ($42), totaling $4,632" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory state payroll tax applies in PA" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 4600, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory PA employee payroll tax included" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 4597, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment tax of 7" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus an estimated $42 Pennsylvania employee unemployment contribution" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions at 0.07% are $42" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory employee state payroll tax is specified." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions are 0.07%, or 42" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 4632, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions are $42" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax and no PA employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Pennsylvania has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no PolicyEngine-modeled employee state payroll tax applies in PA." + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/unemployment deduction from employees beyond income tax withholding" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 4590, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 7, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 1, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 19, + "excluded_silently": 16, + "other_or_unparsed": 3 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax in 2026" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax and no modeled mandatory MN employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 2175.9, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax on employees." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "MN has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "MN has no mandatory employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax and no mandatory MN employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Minnesota has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (MN does not impose a separate employee payroll tax beyond federal)" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Minnesota has no mandatory state payroll tax (no state disability or paid family leave employee contribution in 2026 for this scenario)" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "I assumed no other mandatory employee state payroll tax is modeled for MN." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No Additional Medicare Tax and no employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 2320, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MN PFML employee share 0.35%=$101.50" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 2320, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no employee state payroll tax applies, for a total of $2,218.50. value = 2218.5" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MN Paid Leave employee share 0.44% * $29,000 = $127.60" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 2219, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 4428.6, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no additional Medicare tax or mandatory state employee payroll tax in Minnesota" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 1520, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "mandatory MN employee payroll tax is included only if applicable as state payroll taxes are not specified, so using standard FICA only" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Minnesota paid-leave employee premium 127.6" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "with no additional or state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the estimated employee half of Minnesota's 0.88% Paid Leave premium is $127.60" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 2219, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Minnesota employee paid-leave premiums at 0.44% add $127.60" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no other employee-side payroll tax is indicated" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus $127.60 for Minnesota's 0.44% employee paid-leave contribution" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory Minnesota employee payroll tax applies" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No Additional Medicare Tax and no Minnesota employee-side payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid", + "quote": "Minnesota has no mandatory employee state payroll tax (paid-leave withholding is optional)" + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or state employee payroll taxes apply" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 2346.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "The 50% employee share of Minnesota's 0.88% 2026 paid-leave premium adds $127.60" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 2219, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Minnesota levies no mandatory employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 2219, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "MN has no mandatory employee state payroll tax (no state disability insurance tax like CA/NY)" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 2218.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 18, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 14, + "excluded_silently": 11, + "other_or_unparsed": 3 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 315.14, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Including the mandatory CO FAMLI employee premium of 0.45%: total = 331.14. Submitting FICA plus FAMLI \u2248 331.14... value = 315.14" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no modeled mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Colorado." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "Actually CO FAMLI employee = 0.45%. But the standard payroll calc here: SS 253.46 + Medicare 59.28 = 312.74. Excluding FAMLI as state UI-like." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado has no mandatory employee payroll tax applicable here" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/UI employee contribution) applicable here." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee share 0.44% = 17.99" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado has no employee state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee share 0.45% = $18.40" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 337.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado's mandatory employee FAMLI payroll premium ($24.53)" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee share 0.44% = $17.99" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "the taxable wage base for FICA and CO FAMLI taxes is $0, resulting in no payroll tax liability" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI premiums (0.45% of $4,088 = $18.40)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 312.74, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "0.45% Colorado FAMLI employee tax ($18.40)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee contributions (0.45% of $4,088 = $18.40)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee premium = $4,088 \u00d7 0.45% = $18.396." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 312, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or state employee payroll tax applies in Colorado" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "the provided wages are treated as not subject/insufficient for the modeled employee-side components in this output setup" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax and no mandatory Colorado employee payroll tax included" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado employee FAMLI payroll premiums at 0.45% are $18.40" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the estimated Colorado FAMLI employee premium at 0.45% is $18.40" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 312.732, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Colorado FAMLI employee contributions at 0.44% of wages" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "including Colorado's estimated 0.44% employee FAMLI premium gives $330.72" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI contributions at 0.44% are $17.99" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado's 2026 employee FAMLI contribution of 0.44% adds $17.99" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or Colorado employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No Additional Medicare Tax and no Colorado employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 330.72, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado FAMLI employee share is 0.44% (half of the 0.88% 2026 premium)" + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No Additional Medicare Tax or mandatory state payroll taxes apply." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Colorado Family and Medical Leave Insurance employee tax is 0.45% of $4,088 ($18.396)" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 331.13, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the Colorado FAMLI employee share at 0.45% adds $18.40" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 313, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado does not have a mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 312.73, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Colorado does not impose a mandatory employee payroll income tax." + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 22, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 1, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 7, + "excluded_silently": 9, + "other_or_unparsed": 7 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 13268.7, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "PolicyEngine-style employee payroll tax typically counts SS + Medicare only when state payroll tax not modeled" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 13383.41, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Massachusetts does not have a separate mandatory employee payroll tax beyond federal taxes." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 12321.73, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "employee pays ~0.18% family + 0% medical for small employers. Estimating MA PFML employee contribution ~$0." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 12717.62, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "MA has mandatory employee Paid Family and Medical Leave contributions, but those are not modeled here as 0 absent rate." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 13385, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "MA has no mandatory employee payroll tax counted here beyond PFML: ~0." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "The MA Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution (about $805 at 0.46%) is excluded on the assumption the model does not include it." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 14444.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MA PFML employee share = $175,002 \u00d7 0.00604 = $1,057.01; Total = $14,444.66." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 12318.65, + "category": "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid", + "quote": "Massachusetts has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/paid leave employee contribution assumed here beyond employer-side PFML, which is excluded)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "I did not include any MA paid family and medical leave contribution." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "MA has no employee state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 14053, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "full SS (6.2%), Medicare (1.45%), and MA PFML employee share (0.38%) apply" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 13593.41, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MA PFML employee contribution is $656.26 (0.375%), for a total of $14,043.91" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 14157.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MA PFML employee share = 175002 * 0.0044 = 770.01; total = 14157.66" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 13944.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave employee contribution ($556.51, estimated at 0.318% of wages)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 11843, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 13402, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated MA PFML tax" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 13224, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave contribution of approximately 0.24% ($402)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 14133, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus MA PFML tax of $765.01" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 12822.4, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 13444, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus MA PFML employee contributions" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 14319, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MA PFML employee contribution \u2248 0.532% \u00d7 $175,002 = $931" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Massachusetts mandatory employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 13389.37, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 5420, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 14192.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated MA PFML employee contributions at 0.46% of wages" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 14193, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts PFML employee payroll tax approximately 805" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 14192.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts PFML employee contributions of 0.46%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 14350.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated Massachusetts employee PFML withholding of $962.51" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 14192.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts employee paid-leave contributions at 0.46% are $805.0092" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 13388, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 14192.6622, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts employee paid-family-and-medical-leave contributions at 0.46% add 805.0092" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 14192.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "$805.01 Massachusetts employee paid-family-and-medical-leave contributions" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 15926, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 13944, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "MA PFML mandatory employee contribution at 0.318% is 556" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 14193, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Mandatory Massachusetts PFML employee tax is 0.0046 * 175002 = 805.01" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 14192.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Mandatory MA PFML employee contribution at 0.46% is $805.01" + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 13388, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 14193, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Massachusetts mandatory PFML employee contribution is about 0.46% (~$805)" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 13835.66, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "the 2026 Massachusetts employee PFML rate of 0.256% adds 448.01" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "value=0" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 13387.65, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Massachusetts levies no mandatory employee payroll tax modeled here." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 14525.24, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No mandatory state payroll taxes apply in Massachusetts beyond standard income tax withholding which is not a payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 13922, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 22, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 6, + "excluded_silently": 12, + "other_or_unparsed": 6 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "NY has no mandatory employee state payroll tax modeled beyond negligible PFL/SDI, which is excluded here." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 8304.92, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NY state mandatory payroll tax (Paid Family Leave Insurance) is approximately 0.62% of wages up to the state wage base: $100,195 \u00d7 0.0062 = $621.21." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 7745.43, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Using SDI $31.20 + PFL ~$49.31 \u2248 $80.51." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "NY has no mandatory employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "NY does not impose a mandatory employee payroll tax counted here." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "no mandatory NY employee payroll tax is modeled." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 8042.77, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Total: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 + $31.20 + $346.65 = $8,042.77." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 7794.31, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Adding NY SDI/PFL employee contribution estimate (~$129.39, capped small amount per NY 2026 rates) brings total to approximately $7,794.31." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "No NY payroll tax is modeled." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 7651, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "there are no mandatory employee state payroll taxes in NY" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 7696.12, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NY SDI contribution $31.20. Total $7,696.12." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 8034.6, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "New York Paid Family Leave maximum annual employee contribution is $369.68" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 8128.96, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NY PFL $432.84 + NY DBL $31.20 = $8,128.96" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 8029, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "approximately $333 for New York Paid Family Leave, and $31 for New York Disability Insurance" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 6368.33, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus NY Paid Family Leave ($294.62) and NY SDI ($31.20)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 6436.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus approximately $394 for NY State Paid Family Leave" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 6313, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus state disability and paid family leave contributions" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 6376, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus NY state mandatory payroll deductions (SDI/PFL)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 8069.38, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Total = $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 + $31.20 + $373.26 = $8,069.38." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 7765, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "NY has no employee-side state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 7660, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory employee state payroll tax in NY" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 7659, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 8050.65, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "adding estimated NY employee PFL/DBL contributions of $385.73" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 7696.12, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "New York employee disability payroll tax is approximately $31.20" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 7664.92, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 7654, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 8128.96, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated New York paid-family-leave contributions are $432.84 and disability contributions are $31.20" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 8108.03, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "adding estimated 2026 NY paid-family-leave contributions capped at $411.91 and NY disability contributions of $31.20" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 8108.03, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated mandatory NY paid-family-leave and disability contributions add 411.91 and 31.20" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 8108.03, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "$411.91 New York paid-family-leave contributions and $31.20 disability contributions" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 6042, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no NY employee payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 8032, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NY Paid Family Leave is a mandatory employee payroll tax of about 367 on the 2026 PFL wage base." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 6029, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 8061, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "NY mandatory employee payroll taxes (SDI capped ~$31 and PFL ~$365) add ~$396." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 8107.98, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "New York Paid Family Leave is capped at $411.86 and employee disability insurance is $0.60 for 52 weeks, or $31.20." + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 7665, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 7464.33, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "Using final calculation: $6,212.09 + $1,452.83 + NY mandatory ~$-200 = value = 7464.33" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 7752.42, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "No mandatory employee state payroll tax is included." + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_099", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 29, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 2, + "excluded_silently": 10, + "other_or_unparsed": 5 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 14118, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI employee tax 1.2% (no wage cap in 2026): $85,000*0.012 = $1,020 plus $80,000*0.012 = $960, total $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "California has no state-mandated employee payroll tax for income tax withholding (payroll taxes exclude state income tax withholding as per definition)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 13197.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% on $165,000 = $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "However payroll_tax here focuses on federal FICA per typical benchmark; combining SS+Medicare = 5270+1232.50+4960+1160 = 12622.50." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 12622, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI of $2,145 assumes a 1.3% rate on $165,000." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 14437.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI applies to all wages with no wage base cap at 1.1% rate" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 12903.5, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "CA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (SDI is voluntary/not modeled here as mandatory in this calc)... Using standard SS/Medicare only: 12622.50. Final combined value = 12903.50" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI at an assumed 1.3% of $165,000 = $2,145." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 14438, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus CA SDI ~1.1% on $165,000 = $1,815" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 12285, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI = 1.1% \u00d7 $140,403 = $1,544." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 12285.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.1% ($1,544.43)" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% on $165,000 = $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 14437.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California State Disability Insurance ($1,815, which is 1.1% of $165,000)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 12285.26, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI is 1.1% of $140,403, which is $1,544.43." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 14437.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "1.1% CA State Disability Insurance ($1,815)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 12963, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 13280, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Employee payroll taxes (Social Security, Medicare, and California SDI) total $13,280." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 12425.67, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Medicare, and California State Disability Insurance (SDI) taxes on taxable wages." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 14103, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "comprising Social Security, Medicare, and California SDI equal 14103" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 12632.4, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus mandatory CA SDI at 1.2% with no wage cap = $1,980" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 12622, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 13577, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus estimated California SDI at 1.2% of wages ($1,980)" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 14312.4, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus approximately 1.2% California SDI" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California SDI is 1980" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 14603, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI is about $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI equals $165000 \u00d7 1.3%." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California SDI withholding at 1.3% adds $2,145" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "estimated California SDI withholding at 1.3% adds 2145" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 14767.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at 1.3% adds $2,145." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 12623, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 14438, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus CA SDI 1.1% on 165000" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Mandatory CA SDI at 1.2% on $165,000 adds $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 14602.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California SDI at 1.2% with no wage cap adds $1,980." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 10741, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 14603, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CA SDI 1.2% ($1,980)" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 25290, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no modeled employee-side state payroll tax applies." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 12622.5, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "Total = $12,622.50 + $1,815 = $14,437.50. Wait, let me recalculate without SDI first and then add. Actually the base calculation gives $12,622.50. value = 12622.5" + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 13094.7, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "California State Disability Insurance is $472.20 at 1.2% of $85,000 for the head." + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 20, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 11, + "excluded_silently": 9, + "other_or_unparsed": 6 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 13736.63, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CT mandatory employee payroll tax: Paid Family and Medical Leave = 0.5% x 165,597 = 827.99 (below SS wage cap)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 12668.17, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 12619.41, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "CT payroll tax (approximated at -$48.79 net from itemizations) = $12,619.41." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CT mandatory employee payroll tax: CT Paid Family and Medical Leave 0.5% on wages up to SS base: 165597 \u00d7 0.5% = $827.99." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 12668.17, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CT has no mandatory employee payroll tax included here besides standard." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 10680, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "CT has a mandatory employee paid-leave payroll tax of 0.5% (828). Total \u2248 10,680 after accounting for PolicyEngine's employee payroll tax computation." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "The CT paid-leave contribution is not included, on the assumption that PolicyEngine does not model it." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CT PFMLA employee contribution = $165,597 \u00d7 0.5% = $827.99." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 12668.17, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Connecticut has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/UI employee withholding)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 12668.17, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No state payroll tax was counted." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 12054, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Connecticut has no employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 12891, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CT Paid Family Leave (0.5%) is $790.84." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 13496, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut Paid Family and Medical Leave $827.99 on $165,597 of wages" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 12668.17, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 13496, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "$828 for the mandatory Connecticut Paid Leave premium (0.5% of $165,597)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 14197, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 12891, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Connecticut's 0.5% Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) tax." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 12890.7, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and CT PFML is 0.5% ($790.84), totaling $12,890.70." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 14352.19, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 12890.7, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and 0.5% CT Paid Family Leave ($790.84) on FICA wages of $158,168." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 12891, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid family leave payroll tax on covered wages" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 12891.1, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Connecticut Paid Family and Medical Leave (0.5% up to the Social Security taxable maximum)" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 12044.31, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CT has no employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 10087, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Connecticut has no mandatory employee state payroll tax" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 6180, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 13496, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and Connecticut paid-leave tax of 0.5% on $165,597 of wages" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 13590.67, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid-family-leave withholding of $922.50" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid-leave contributions estimated at 0.5%" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 12621, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 12890.69, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and 0.5% Connecticut paid-leave contributions." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid-leave contribution of 0.5% on $165,597 wages" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid-leave contributions are approximately 827.99" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 12890.69, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut paid-leave contributions are $790.84" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no employee state payroll tax in CT." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 13496, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "CT PFML 0.5% adds 828." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 13496.16, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Connecticut Paid Leave employee tax is $827.99 (0.5%)." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no other employee payroll taxes." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CT has no mandatory employee state payroll taxes." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "value = 0" + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 12668, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CT has no mandatory employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 12668.18, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "CT has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 9655, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + } + ] + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_123", + "counts": { + "included_state_component": 15, + "excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid": 0, + "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax": 16, + "excluded_silently": 11, + "other_or_unparsed": 4 + }, + "per_model": [ + { + "model": "claude-fable-5", + "prediction": 11663.35, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "PA SUI employee withholding 0.07% of wages = $70 + $31.50 = $101.50" + }, + { + "model": "claude-fable-5.1", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-haiku-4.5", + "prediction": 11741.39, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Pennsylvania has no state income tax and no mandatory state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.7", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "PA has no employee-side mandatory state payroll tax beyond minimal SUI; using $11,092.50." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-4.8", + "prediction": 11097.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Employee payroll tax = Social Security (6.2%) + Medicare (1.45%) + PA SUI employee tax (0.07% in 2026)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-opus-5.5", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-4.6", + "prediction": 11106.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "PA employees do pay into the UC fund at 0.07% on first $10,000. Head: $7, Child 1: $7 = $14 total." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax (no state disability/UI employee withholding)." + }, + { + "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No employee state payroll tax is modeled." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-flash-0731", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or mandatory state payroll tax applies." + }, + { + "model": "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3-flash-preview", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Pennsylvania's mandatory employee unemployment compensation tax estimated at 0.07% of gross wages ($145,000 * 0.0007 = $101.50)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", + "prediction": 11108, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.1-pro-preview", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Pennsylvania's 0.07% employee state unemployment tax ($101.50)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "PA employee unemployment compensation tax is approximately 0.07% of wages ($101.50)." + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.5-flash-lite", + "prediction": 11138, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.6-flash", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and PA employee UC tax of 0.07% ($101.50) on $145,000 gross wages" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.7-flash", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "PA employee SUI tax (0.07% of $145,000 = $101.50)" + }, + { + "model": "gemini-3.8-flash", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.2", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "glm-5.3", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-mini", + "prediction": 12366, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "No mandatory employee state payroll tax is assumed in PA" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.4-nano", + "prediction": 15399, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no other mandatory employee state payroll taxes provided separately" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.5", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "plus Pennsylvania employee unemployment contribution of 0.07% or $101.50." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-luna", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions add $101.50" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-sol", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania's 0.07% employee unemployment contribution adds 101.5" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-5.6-terra", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-astra", + "prediction": 11179.5, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "and $87 Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-luna", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare Tax or Pennsylvania employee payroll tax applies." + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6-sol", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions at 0.07% add 101.50" + }, + { + "model": "gpt-6.1-sol", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "$101.50 Pennsylvania employee unemployment contributions at 0.07%." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.3", + "prediction": 11107.5, + "category": "excluded_silently", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.5", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no mandatory PA employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.6", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no mandatory employee-side state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-4.7", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "Pennsylvania has no mandatory employee state payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "grok-build-0.1", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "no Additional Medicare (earned income $145000 < $250000 MFJ threshold) or mandatory state employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "inkling", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "State mandatory employee payroll taxes are zero." + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k2.6", + "prediction": null, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "" + }, + { + "model": "kimi-k3", + "prediction": 11194, + "category": "included_state_component", + "quote": "PA employee UC withholding is 101.50 at 0.07%." + }, + { + "model": "minimax-m3", + "prediction": 0, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "however this benchmark output reports 0 for this scenario per the structured household inputs." + }, + { + "model": "ox-alpha", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA levies no mandatory employee payroll tax." + }, + { + "model": "qwen-3.7-max", + "prediction": 11092.5, + "category": "excluded_as_no_state_payroll_tax", + "quote": "PA has no state payroll taxes (employee-side income tax is separate)." + }, + { + "model": "qwen3.8-max", + "prediction": 10851.95, + "category": "other_or_unparsed", + "quote": "rounded to $10,851.95 to match PolicyEngine's state payroll-tax rounding." + } + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/independent_reviews.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/independent_reviews.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..da789cb5 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/independent_reviews.json @@ -0,0 +1,850 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-10-05", + "reviewed_commit": "8714770979394463b193caddb366de8d18f54dc8", + "method": "Claude Code workflow wf_b0ed54d5-a21 (run after an account switch interrupted the first launch): eight agents, each in its own scratch directory, none changing the checkout. Scratch paths are not kept.", + "differential_impact": { + "agrees": true, + "compared": "2,438 values across the two required variants, all within tolerance: 0 mismatches. For each of the 46 models, under exclude and under regenerate: exact, within1pct and score, both `*_proposed` and `*_published`, computed two independent ways (path A and path B, described under method). Also n_proposed, n_published, payroll_exact_proposed, payroll_exact_published and payroll_exact_delta. Separately, the audit's published exact, within1pct, score and n columns against the payload `data.json.gz` modelStats, and my own published values against the payload. The largest absolute difference on any rate was 2.84e-14 (tolerance 1e-9). Every integer matched exactly.\n\nPayroll exact counts came from my own hit computation over scored payroll_tax rows. That is 99 rows per model for published and regenerate and 95 for exclude, with missing predictions counted as misses (66 missing under published). They match the audit CSVs, and the published counts also match the published payload's scenarioPredictions (`scored` and `exact==100`) for all 46 models.\n\nBeyond scope, also checked with 0 mismatches:\n- **SALT variants:** salt, exclude+salt and regenerate+salt, 966 more comparisons against the `*_plus_salt` and `salt` CSVs, with #191's records read via `git show 8af912a0`.\n- **Always-zero baseline:** 69.97959457368849 published, 70.52527771951148 exclude, 69.97959457368849 regenerate, equal to `leaderboard_impact.json`.\n- **Rank changes:** the rank-change sets for exact, within1pct and score equal the json in both variants.\n- **README figures:** every cell of the 13-row README table (published, exclude and regenerate exact to two decimals, both ranks, and the three payroll exact counts) is correct. The delta ranges (exclude -0.0667 to +0.6197, regenerate -0.6880 to +0.6880) and the five exclude and ten regenerate adjacent swaps on exact (the same pairs the README names) are correct. On regenerate, Claude Opus 5.5 leads within1pct (95.5763). Payroll exact across models goes 78.502% to 81.007% (exclude) and 79.534% (regenerate). The GPT-6 Sol vs Claude Opus 5.5 gap goes 1.3060 to 0.2431, and the lead over always-zero goes 25.02 to 24.57 (exclude) and 24.65 (regenerate).", + "mismatches": [], + "method": "I did not use the CLI, the staged scratch copies or the dashboard payload. All inputs were loaded in memory from the frozen run: reference_outputs.csv, reference_exclusions.json (56 records), predictions.csv.gz (91,264 rows, no duplicate model/scenario/variable keys) and scenarios.csv.\n\n- **Exclude:** I appended the 4 records from `proposed_exclusions.json` to the base list in memory and called `policybench.reference_exclusions.split_reference`. That gives 1,924 scored rows.\n- **Regenerate:** I set the 4 rows' float values to `regenerated_value` in the DataFrame. I asserted each frozen value first, and did not write the CSV and re-parse a `repr` string as the audit does. That gives 1,928 scored rows.\n- **Path A (library functions called directly, not `analyze_no_tools`):** exact and within1pct are `weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model` × 100. Score is the mean of `bounded_household_scores` × 100. n is `summary_by_model(compute_metrics(...)).total_n`. I read `cli.py`'s analyze branch and `analysis.build_dashboard_payload` this session and confirmed that modelStats exact, within1pct, score and n map to these.\n- **Path B (hand-rolled):** the only library pieces reused are the output-group population weights (`bounded_global_variable_weights`, which I confirmed comes from the committed `population_weights.json` covering all 18 groups, so it does not depend on reference values) and `metric_type_for_output`/`BINARY_PROGRAMS`. Everything else is my own vectorized numpy code:\n - Rows split their group's weight equally within the household and are renormalized to sum to 1 per household; households with zero total weight are dropped.\n - Exact is |p−t|≤1. Within1pct is |p−t|/|t|≤0.01, or |p|≤1 when t=0. Binary outputs compare 0/1 flags.\n - Score is max(0, 1−|p−t|/|t|), with t=0 scoring 1 only when p==0.\n - Each model's rate is the equal-household mean; n is the number of scored reference rows.\n- **Payroll exact counts:** my own count of path-B exact hits on scored payroll_tax rows.", + "commands_run": [ + "git log -1; git status --porcelain (checkout clean before and after)", + "cat CLAUDE.md, reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md, scripts/leaderboard_impact.py, proposed_exclusions.json, proposed_regenerations.json", + "sed -n policybench/cli.py (analyze parser 750-800, analyze branch 1401-1520)", + "sed -n policybench/analysis.py (60-245 row scoring, 291-630 weights and household scoring, 1051-1312 detail rows/compute_metrics/summary_by_model, 1468-1590 analyze_no_tools, 2176-2345 build_dashboard_payload modelStats)", + "cat policybench/reference_exclusions.py; sed policybench/population_weights.py", + "PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/.venv/bin/python /review/differential-impact/recompute.py /review/differential-impact -> 2438 comparisons, 0 mismatches", + "same venv: derived.py (weight source, combined-exclusion validation, always-zero baseline, rank changes, adjacent swaps, README table, gaps)", + "same venv: salt_and_payload.py (payload scenarioPredictions payroll counts; salt, exclude+salt, regenerate+salt vs audit CSVs, 966 comparisons, 0 mismatches)", + "git show 8af912a0:reference_audit/2026-10-05/{proposed_exclusions.json,README.md,verification/leaderboard_impact_models.csv} (read-only)" + ], + "other_findings": [ + "Rounding error in the README's SALT figure. Line 140 says the #191 records alone give 'GPT-6 Sol 95.62%', and #191's own README at 8af912a0 says the same (line 95: 'GPT-6 Sol moves from 95.00% to 95.62%'). But the computed value is 95.61458515870082 in my recomputation, in this audit's leaderboard_impact_salt_models.csv and in #191's own leaderboard_impact_models.csv. That rounds to 95.61%, not 95.62%. The delta is +0.6110860229821071. The figure is wrong in both READMEs.", + "Combined exclusion record is valid. The 56 base plus 4 proposed records pass `load_reference_exclusions` (required fields, no duplicates, frozen != alternative) and the `split_reference` frozen-value check. None of the 4 proposed keys overlaps a base exclusion, and none of the 4 regenerated keys is already excluded.", + "The regenerated values equal the exclusion records' alternative_value exactly for all 4 outputs. frozen minus regenerated is 127.6001 (MN), 17.9879 (CO), 805.0098 (MA) and 443.1099 (NY), against the `removed` amounts recorded as 127.6, 17.99, 805.01 and 443.11. The gaps of up to 0.0098 are float32 rounding in the reference CSV. They are far below the $1 exact tolerance, and no score I computed depends on them.", + "Other SALT-combined claims check out: SALT alone has Claude Sonnet 5.5 at 92.64 vs GPT-6 Luna at 92.61, so Sonnet passes Luna. Exclude+salt gives GPT-6 Sol 95.75 and Claude Opus 5.5 94.97 with exactly three adjacent exact swaps vs salt (#12/#13, #29/#30, #35/#36). Regenerate+salt gives 95.19 and 95.00 (94.9965).", + "No file in the checkout was modified (`git status --porcelain` empty). My scratch scripts, logs and per-variant CSVs are in /private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/224fe5b6-f6e8-4204-af8f-2508970193bc/scratchpad/review/differential-impact/." + ] + }, + "differential_sweep": { + "agrees": true, + "compared": "All 1,984 outputs (100 households, 1,928 scored and 56 excluded). (1) My zeroed-input values against the audit CSV's 'scoped' column: 1,984 of 1,984 within 1e-3 and 0 mismatches. They are bitwise equal on all 1,984 once the CSV is parsed with float_precision='round_trip'. With pandas' default parser, 4 differ by at most 5.7e-14 (CSV parse artifact): scenario_023 state_refundable_credits, scenario_042 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, scenario_112 federal_refundable_credits, scenario_112 payroll_tax. (2) My baseline (latest_final, no zero inputs) against the audit's 'final' column: 1,984 of 1,984, bitwise equal under round-trip parsing. (3) Outputs where 'scoped' != 'final': exactly 4, all payroll_tax, the same 4 where my zeroed run differs from my baseline. They are scenario_032 MN (2346.10009765625 to 2218.5), scenario_043 CO (330.7310791015625 to 312.74322509765625), scenario_081 MA (14192.662109375 to 13387.65234375) and scenario_082 NY (8108.02734375 to 7664.91748046875). The audit's moved_any count is also 4. (4) Audit 'final' against the published reference_outputs.csv (sha256 e8bbba8f..., equal to the sidecar's reference_csv_sha256): all 1,928 scored outputs exact. My own baseline also matches all 1,928. The CSV's excluded flag agrees with reference_exclusions.json on every row. Of the 56 excluded outputs, 19 differ from the reference, and each equals the sidecar's excluded_outputs_rechecked value_on_2_15_17 (19 entries, same set). (5) Additional checks: (a) employee_state_payroll_tax per household, baseline and zeroed, against sweep_payroll_scope_households.json: 100 of 100 within 1e-3. (b) proposed_regenerations.json and proposed_exclusions.json: frozen_value equals my baseline and regenerated_value/alternative_value equals my zeroed value, bitwise, for all 4.", + "mismatches": [], + "method": "The audit removes the five optional contributions from the employee_state_payroll_tax adds list through a Reform adapter (fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py) composed with latest_final. I used no adapter and no reform beyond latest_final, which I loaded from a scratch copy of reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/*.py with r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json beside it; the module hashes match the sidecar's fix_modules. Instead, I set co_employee_famli_contribution, ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution, mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution, ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution and ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution to {\"2026\": 0.0} as situation inputs on every person. Households were built with scenario_from_dict(...).to_pe_household(), with partnership_se_income renamed to partnership_self_employment_net_earnings. I used one CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=latest_final.reform) per worker and two Simulations per household (baseline and zeroed), on policyengine-us 2.15.17 / policyengine-core 3.32.8 with a 12-process pool. Outputs came from expand_programs_for_scenario(sidecar programs, scenario) with no filtering against the reference index; the resulting key set equals the reference CSV's and the audit CSV's 1,984 keys exactly. Values came from _pe_variable_for_output and _extract_person_value. Before relying on this, I grepped the 2.15.17 package (py and yaml, tests excluded): the only non-test readers of the five variables are the co/ma/mn/ny state aggregates, so zeroing them as inputs and removing them from the list should be equivalent, and the run confirms it. I also checked one property beyond the audit: in each household, the payroll_tax change equals minus the sum of the five baseline contributions, within 1e-3. The values are -127.6001 vs 127.6000, -17.9879 vs 17.9878, -805.0098 vs 805.0092 and -443.1099 vs 443.1100 (float32 rounding). Only those 4 households have any of the five contributions above 0. Scratch files are in /private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/224fe5b6-f6e8-4204-af8f-2508970193bc/scratchpad/review/differential-sweep/ (diff_sweep.py, diff_sweep_results.json, compare.py, compare.log, compare.csv).", + "commands_run": [ + "git -C log -1; git status --porcelain (HEAD 8714770979394463b193caddb366de8d18f54dc8, clean)", + "shasum -a 256 reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/*.py (match sidecar fix_modules) and fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py (74200522... = households json adapter_sha256)", + "grep -rn -E '' --include='*.py' --include='*.yaml' (only the state aggregates read them)", + "cp reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/*.py reference_audit/2026-09-22/fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json /fixes/", + "PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= /.venv-pe21517/bin/python diff_sweep.py (100 households, exit 0)", + "PYTHONPATH= /Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/.venv/bin/python compare.py", + "python: re-parse sweep_payroll_scope.csv with float_precision='round_trip' (0 non-bitwise-equal values in scoped and final)", + "python: bitwise check of proposed_regenerations.json and proposed_exclusions.json values against the independent run", + "git diff --stat 8b4c0ca1 HEAD -- reference_audit/2026-09-28 reference_audit/2026-09-22 policybench (empty)" + ], + "other_findings": [ + "Read with pandas' default C float parser, sweep_payroll_scope.csv gives 4 values that are off by up to 5.7e-14 (8 cells, the same 4 outputs in both 'final' and 'scoped'): scenario_023 state_refundable_credits 95.15400695800781 read as 95.1540069580078, scenario_042 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 464.18280029296875 read as 464.1828002929687, and scenario_112 federal_refundable_credits and payroll_tax 453.09600830078125 read as 453.0960083007813. The values written are exact; with float_precision='round_trip' all 1,984 are bitwise equal to my run. This is harmless at the 1e-3 tolerance, but any consumer that tests the CSV with exact == should use round-trip parsing.", + "The audit's sweep filters expanded outputs by membership in the reference index. That filter removes nothing: expand_programs_for_scenario with the sidecar's 18 programs gives exactly the 1,984 reference keys.", + "The branch leaves the frozen run directory, reference_audit/2026-09-28, reference_audit/2026-09-22 and the policybench package unchanged relative to base 8b4c0ca1. The diff is 29 added files and 16,990 insertions, all new." + ] + }, + "mechanism": { + "agrees": true, + "compared": "Hand-computed numbers: for all 12 outputs in the README table (scenario_005, 022, 023, 099, 028, 123, 120, 008, 032, 043, 081, 082) I computed the federal part (6.2% Social Security up to $184,500, 1.45% Medicare, 0.9% Additional Medicare Tax over $250k joint or $200k otherwise), the state part and the total from the scenarios.csv facts. That is 36 values, compared with verification/payroll_decomposition.csv (federal_total, employee_state_payroll_tax, reference) and reference_outputs.csv. Largest gap: $0.00033, which is float32 storage. All 16 per-program state amounts match the decomposition's state_programs. The 4 regenerated values match proposed_regenerations.json and the exclusions' alternative_value: hand 2218.5000, 312.7432, 13387.6530, 7664.9175 against audit 2218.5, 312.74322509765625, 13387.65234375, 7664.91748046875 (largest gap $0.00066). Mechanism, run separately: I re-swept all 164 outputs of the 9 households in MN, CO, MA and NY with my own code. Exactly the same 4 payroll_tax outputs move, to the same float values. Every other baseline value equals the published reference, except 2 excluded outputs (scenario_082 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 9577.90 vs 9563.05; scenario_118 snap 2868.0 vs 2903.94); both equal the sidecar's excluded_outputs_rechecked values. Of the README's 'How the reference is built' section and the docstrings, these are confirmed against source: payroll_tax -> spm_unit_payroll_tax (benchmark_specs.json us[2]) -> sum_contained_tax_units('employee_payroll_tax'); employee_payroll_tax adds the 4 components; employee_state_payroll_tax adds 14 state aggregates and its documentation quote is accurate; the 18 leaves listed in decompose_payroll.STATE_PROGRAMS match the engine; the 'maximum permitted employee share' wording appears in exactly DE, MA, ME, MN and VT, and not in CO, NY, WA or anything else; latest_final has nine conventions plus the MD adapter and touches no payroll variable.", + "mismatches": [ + { + "item": "claim (README 'How the reference is built', last bullet): readers of the contributions and of employee_payroll_tax", + "audit_value": "Nothing else in the engine reads these contributions except through employee_payroll_tax, which also feeds spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings and household_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "your_value": "Not true for every contribution: ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution is read directly by parameters/gov/local/ca/scc/general_assistance/countable_income/earned_deductions/person_sources.yaml (Santa Clara GA). The reader list is also incomplete. employee_payroll_tax is also read by parameters/gov/states/al/tax/income/deductions/itemized/sources.yaml (al_itemized_deductions), variables/contrib/taxsim/taxsim_tfica.py, variables/household/fica_marginal_tax_rate.py and reforms/federal/abolish_payroll_tax.py. spm_unit_payroll_tax feeds spm_unit_taxes and then spm_unit_net_income. spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings feeds the CA Marin and LA general relief programs.", + "note": "A text claim, not a computed value. The five optional leaves do have no direct reader, and none of the extra readers moves any benchmark output: my re-sweep of every MN, CO, MA and NY household moves only the 4 payroll_tax outputs. Fix the wording, e.g. 'the five optional contributions are read only through ...', and list every reader or say 'among others'." + }, + { + "item": "claim (README line 43; program_classification.json programs_without_a_benchmark_household.note): no household in Washington", + "audit_value": "no benchmark household lives in Delaware, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont or Washington / No benchmark household lives in these states", + "your_value": "scenarios.csv has 2 WA households: scenario_002 (joint, ages 77/75) and scenario_111 (joint, ages 72/49). Both have employment_income 0 and a payroll_tax reference of 0.0, and the payroll_tax for both is scored (excluded=False).", + "note": "False for WA as written. The true statement is that no wage-earning household lives there, which is what README line 60 ('no benchmark household reaches') already gets right. No number changes." + }, + { + "item": "claim (README 'Related findings', Engine): no employer-size input", + "audit_value": "policyengine-us has no input for the employer's deduction choice, employer size (except Massachusetts' employer side) or a private plan", + "your_value": "variables/input/employer_payroll.py defines employer_headcount (Person, int, default_value 100). It is read by ma_employer_paid_leave_contribution, co_employer_famli_contribution, me_employer_paid_leave_contribution, or_employer_paid_leave_contribution, wa_employer_paid_leave_contribution, ny_mctmt_employer_quarterly_payroll_expense and employer_total_additional_state_payroll_tax. It is also read by de_paid_leave_contribution_rate, which sets the DE employee contribution (rate 0 under small_employer_threshold, parental only under full_coverage_threshold).", + "note": "The employer-size part is false. The deduction-choice part holds: I found no input for it. I did not check the private-plan part. No benchmark number is affected." + } + ], + "method": "I computed independently from law values in exact Python Decimal: SS base 184,500; CA SDI 1.3% uncapped; PA UC 0.07%; CT 0.5% to the SS base; NJ TDI 0.19% and FLI 0.23%; MN 0.44% to 185,000; CO 0.44% to the SS base; MA 0.18% + 0.4×0.70% = 0.46% to the SS base; NY PFL 0.432% capped at $411.91 and DBL 0.5% capped at $31.20. Inputs were the employment_income and self_employment_income values in each scenario_json. I first confirmed in the engine source that FICA wages are employment_income minus fica_pre_tax_contributions (pre_tax_health_insurance_premiums and HSA payroll contributions). Both are pure inputs that no scenario sets and that PE_INPUT_ALIASES does not map, so FICA wages equal employment_income here. The audit instead uses engine Simulation output (float32). For mechanism, I read policyengine_us/system.py and core's tax_benefit_system.py, simulation.py and variable.py, plus spm.py's _prepare_spm_system and share_spm_policy. I then built both systems in the 2.15.17 venv with an instrumented wrapper. The adapter is applied exactly twice: system.py line 136, 'if reform: self.apply_reform_set(reform)', and line 153, after 'reform = (reform, structural_reform)'. Core TaxBenefitSystem.__init__ does not apply it, because parameters_dir is None for US, and core Simulation built with tax_benefit_system= and no reform does not re-apply it. Call 1 rewrites the list from 14 state aggregates to 13 leaves; call 2 is a no-op, and a manual third call leaves the same object in place. Against the latest_final system, the only differing attribute of employee_state_payroll_tax is adds. Entity tax_unit, label, documentation, unit, defined_for=None and formulas={} are all the same. set_input, calculate_output and defined_for are not inherited by core's Variable, but the original declares none of them. Ignoring memory addresses, every other variable's fingerprint is identical, and all 102,807 parameter leaves are identical. Flattening keeps state gating because each of the 18 leaves carries the same defined_for StateCode as its aggregate, and core's adds path sums Person values to the TaxUnit with map_to in both versions. I did not run the audit's own scripts.", + "commands_run": [ + "git log -1; git status --porcelain (clean, HEAD 8714770979394463b193caddb366de8d18f54dc8)", + "cat CLAUDE.md, reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md, fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py, scripts/{decompose_payroll,sweep_payroll_scope,propose_changes,model_answers}.py, head of scripts/leaderboard_impact.py", + "cat engine: spm_unit_payroll_tax.py, employee_payroll_tax.py, employee_state_payroll_tax.py, all 14 _employee_state_payroll_tax.py, all 18 leaf contribution files, taxable-wage variables, federal payroll variables, fica_pre_tax_contributions(.yaml), 2026 rate/cap parameter YAMLs", + "grep -rn -i 'maximum permitted' policyengine_us (5 hits: de, ma, me, mn, vt)", + "grep -rnw employee_payroll_tax / employee_state_payroll_tax / each state aggregate / each leaf across policyengine_us (excluding tests)", + "read policyengine_us/system.py lines 77-260, spm.py _prepare_spm_system/share_spm_policy, core tax_benefit_system.py 60-265, core simulation.py 144-294 and _run_formula adds path, core variable.py __init__/set/set_formulas", + "PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= .venv-pe21517/bin/python scratchpad/review/mechanism/diff_systems.py (application count, attribute diff, all-variable and all-parameter diff)", + "... diff_others.py (variable diff with addresses stripped: 0 differ)", + "python3 scratchpad/review/mechanism/hand_compute.py (12 outputs + 4 regenerations vs decomposition CSV, reference CSV, proposals)", + "... .venv-pe21517/bin/python scratchpad/review/mechanism/resweep.py (164 outputs in 9 MN/CO/MA/NY households, base vs scoped)", + "python3 summaries of payroll_decomposition.csv and sweep_payroll_scope.csv; scenarios.csv state counts; WA household inspection", + "shasum -a 256 fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py (74200522b823...3529, equal to proposals and sweep sidecar)", + "grep employer_headcount readers; cat de_paid_leave_contribution_rate.py; WA PFML and abolish_payroll_tax parameter YAMLs; latest_conventions PARTS (9)" + ], + "other_findings": [ + "Confirmed: CountryTaxBenefitSystem applies the reform exactly twice (system.py:136 and :153), and the adapter's second-pass guard makes it idempotent. A third application is also a no-op. Wording nit: README method step 3 says the system 'applies a reform twice ..., so the adapter is idempotent'. The causality is backwards: the adapter is written to be idempotent because of the double application.", + "Confirmed: the adapter changes nothing but the adds list of employee_state_payroll_tax. Before: 14 aggregates. After: the 13 leaves ca_sdi, ct, de, me, nj_tdi, nj_fli, or_pl, or_transit, pa_uc, ri_tdi, vt, wa_pl, wa_ltc. No formula, rate, parameter or other variable changes.", + "Scope caveat on the adapter docstring and DESCRIPTION ('Exclude employee shares the employer may but need not deduct'; 'This module removes those programs'). It drops only the five reviewed leaves. It keeps de_employee_paid_leave_contribution, me_employee_paid_leave_contribution and vt_employee_child_care_contribution, which the README and program_classification.json call optional pass-throughs, and wa_employee_paid_leave_contribution, classed as mixed. No benchmark effect, since no wage earners live in those states and program_classification.json says the adapter does not touch them. But used as an upstream fix it would not fully match its own definition.", + "README: 'employee_payroll_tax adds ...' leaves out the formula's branch that returns 0 when gov.contrib.ubi_center.flat_tax.abolish_payroll_tax is true. That parameter defaults to false, so there is no effect.", + "proposed_regenerations.json 'removed' amounts are cent-rounded strings taken from the decomposition CSV (CO 17.99 vs engine 17.98785; MA 805.01 vs 805.00922), not engine amounts. propose_changes.py's $0.01 check absorbs the difference. Cosmetic.", + "scenario_120's CT state part, shown as 827.98, is a float32 artifact. Exact 0.5% x 165,597 = 827.985, which rounds half-up to 827.99. Reference total 13,496.1552734 vs exact 13,496.1555. Not a mismatch.", + "Engine observation outside the audit's claims, with no effect on these outputs. additional_medicare_tax sums payroll_tax_gross_wages and taxable_self_employment_income over the whole tax unit, dependents included (scenario_123's 16-year-old has $45,000 of wages), and counts SE income inside payroll_tax. Every case here is far below the threshold.", + "Check counts all reproduce: payroll_decomposition.csv has 100/100 matches_reference, parts_add_up and leaves_add_up; 12 outputs with a state component, 11 scored; scenario_008 is excluded as reference_engine_defect; no household in a program state has wages and no state part. sweep_payroll_scope.csv has 1,984 rows, 1,928 scored, 1,965 final matches, and moved_any on exactly the 4 payroll_tax rows. The adapter sha256 74200522b823abf237a00a5cd6c61038cf1a8015b12bd505c536c743c3713529 matches the proposals and the sweep sidecar." + ] + }, + "recommendation": { + "advocate_briefs": [ + { + "option": "keep", + "strongest_case": "The four references follow from the stated facts under the prompt's own conventions. Each statute defines an employee share and treats the employer paying it as the employer's election: Minnesota employers pay at least half and employees \"must pay the remaining portion\"; Colorado deems an employer that deducts less to have \"elected to pay\" the employee share; Massachusetts' rule covers an employer that \"opts to deduct a lower percentage\", and its agency says employers \"must withhold\"; New York's regulator says employers \"shall collect\" PFL contributions, priced to fund the whole premium. The prompt says to treat unlisted facts as false and not to infer unlisted income, and Minnesota's agency calls an employer pickup \"additional compensation\" taxed as wages. With no election stated, the engine's amounts are the no-election amounts, not an arbitrary cap.\n\nThe exclusion rule needs a careful reader who could take the facts the other way. Of 184 answers on these outputs, one cites optional withholding (Grok 4.7, Minnesota), and the same model calls Colorado's and Massachusetts' optional shares mandatory. The federal-only answers behind the gains are guesses about the engine: Claude Opus 5.5 dropped Massachusetts \"on the assumption the model does not include it\" and Connecticut's mandatory contribution on the same ground. These items test program knowledge as the scored Pennsylvania, Connecticut and California items do, and the judges who annotated all 149 wrong answers raised no reference flag.\n\nExclusion is symmetric in rule, not in effect. It gives Claude Opus 5.5 90% of regeneration's gain, cuts GPT-6 Sol's lead over it from 1.31 to 0.78 points, drops GPT-6.1 Sol (right on all four) a place, and moves the average model's headline more than regeneration does (mean absolute change 0.44 vs 0.33 points). Keep, and state the convention in the next prompt version.", + "points": [ + { + "claim": "In all four states the law and the agencies name an employee share and describe the employer paying it as an election, so the default is the share the engine counts. Minnesota: the employer pays at least 50% and employees \"must pay the remaining portion, if any\", through deductions the employer \"must make\". Colorado: an employer that deducts less \"is considered to have elected to pay\" the employee share. Massachusetts: the rule covers an employer that \"opts to deduct a lower percentage\", and DFML says employers \"must withhold PFML contributions\". New York: DFS says \"Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision\", and PFL is rated so that employees fund the whole premium.", + "evidence": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/law_research.json: MN research.caveats and statute verdict (subd. 3, subd. 5a(b)(2)); CO research.can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share (7 CCR 1107-1 s. 1.4(6)(A)); MA statute and administration verdicts, citation_problems (DFML overview \"must withhold\", subtitle \"Most Massachusetts employers must make payroll withholdings\"); NY agency_guidance (DFS 2026 decision) and NY caveats (\"PFL is designed to be paid entirely by employees ... DFS sets the rate to cover the full premium\")" + }, + { + "claim": "The prompt's own conventions settle the employer choice it leaves unstated. Unlisted facts are false and no unlisted income may be inferred, and that wording was in the prompt before the run. An employer election to pay the employee share is an unlisted fact. In Minnesota it would also be unlisted income: DEED says that when the employer pays more than its minimum share, the excess is additional compensation taxed as wages.", + "evidence": "policybench/prompts.py:19-22 (TASK_PREFACE: \"Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 and any other unlisted household fact, boolean, or status input as false ... Do not infer unlisted income\"), present since commit 1f0f7cb0 (2026-05-01), before the 2026-06-12 run; law_research.json MN guidance, pl.mn.gov/employers/taxes-and-paid-leave: \"If an employer pays more than the required minimum share of the premium, this is additional compensation to the employee and is included in the employee's federal gross income as wages.\"" + }, + { + "claim": "Minnesota has the structure the README uses to call California mandatory. In California an employer may pay the worker's SDI instead of deducting it, the payment counts as wages, and the contribution stays the worker's. DEED treats a Minnesota employer pickup the same way: as wages, with the 0.44% still the employee's for tax purposes.", + "evidence": "README.md line 67 (California bullet); law_research.json MN administration verdict reasoning: \"for federal tax purposes, an employer pickup is still treated as the employee's 0.44%, paid through extra wages\" (DEED taxes page modified 2026-05-08, before the freeze)" + }, + { + "claim": "Each engine amount is what the household owes when no election is made, not an arbitrary maximum. Minnesota: a 0.88% premium less the employer's 50% floor leaves $127.60 on $29,000. Colorado: 0.44% gives $17.99. Massachusetts: 0.46% gives $805.01. New York: PFL $411.91 plus DBL $31.20. Every reviewer re-ran the engine and got these figures.", + "evidence": "program_classification.json engine_amounts; law_research.json MN administration rate_or_amount_issues (\"Large employer: 0.88% x 29,000 = $255.20 total, with an employer minimum of 50%, which is $127.60\"); CO, MA and NY verdict rate_or_amount_issues" + }, + { + "claim": "In practice almost no model reads the facts the other way for the legal reason. Of 184 answers, two are classed as leaving the program out as optional or employer-paid. Grok 4.7 on Minnesota says \"paid-leave withholding is optional\", yet it calls Colorado's FAMLI share 0.44% and Massachusetts' PFML \"Mandatory ... at 0.46%\", though both are optional by the audit's own classification. Claude Sonnet 5 on Massachusetts calls PFML \"employer-side\" and submits 12,318.65, which matches neither reading. No model applies the optional reading consistently.", + "evidence": "verification/explanations.json counts excluded_as_optional_or_employer_paid = 1, 0, 1, 0 on scenario_032/043/081/082; predictions.csv.gz grok-4.7 rows for scenario_032 (2218.5), scenario_043 (330.72) and scenario_081 (14192.66); explanations.json claude-sonnet-5 on scenario_081 (12318.65)" + }, + { + "claim": "The leading federal-only answers are guesses about what the engine models, not readings of the law. Claude Opus 5.5 drops Connecticut's mandatory contribution on the same ground it gives for Massachusetts, and it misses both Pennsylvania mandatory items.", + "evidence": "predictions.csv.gz claude-opus-5.5: scenario_081 \"excluded on the assumption the model does not include it\"; scenario_120 (CT, mandatory) \"not included, on the assumption that PolicyEngine does not model it\"; scenario_082 \"no mandatory NY employee payroll tax is modeled\". claude-fable-5.1 scenario_032 \"no modeled mandatory MN employee payroll tax\"; explanations.json claude-sonnet-5.5 on scenario_028 \"No PA employee state payroll tax is modeled\". model_answers.csv: claude-opus-5.5 is not exact on scenario_028, 120 or 123" + }, + { + "claim": "These four outputs test program knowledge the same way the scored mandatory outputs do. Removing them drops working test items rather than fixing faulty ones.", + "evidence": "README.md lines 82-99 explanation tables: MN has 19 'no state tax' and 16 silent; PA scenario_028 has 17 and 15, scenario_123 16 and 11; CT has 11 and 9. model_answers_summary.json exact on the frozen reference: MN 6, CO 16, MA 9, NY 4, against PA scenario_028 10" + }, + { + "claim": "The repository's own review process never flagged these references, and their values have not changed since the first run. The judges annotated every wrong answer on the four outputs, 149 rows, and none marked the reference as suspect. The September 22 audit flagged only New Jersey's payroll output, and its r05 fix added more of New Jersey's employee contributions to payroll_tax.", + "evidence": "annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_audit_row_annotations.csv: 149 rows (38+2, 30, 36+1, 41+1), all reference_suspect False; us_case_notes.csv reference_suspect False for all four; reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/flagged_sept22_wave.json lists only scenario_008:payroll_tax; reference_audit/2026-09-22/root_causes.json r05_nj_worker_ui; README.md line 43 (values since 2026-06-15)" + }, + { + "claim": "Exclusion's rule is symmetric but its effect is not. It gives the models that answered federal tax alone on all four most of what regeneration would give them, and the one model right on all four is the only model whose headline falls.", + "evidence": "verification/leaderboard_impact_exclude_models.csv and _regenerate_models.csv, exact_delta under exclude vs regenerate: claude-opus-5.5 +0.620 vs +0.688 (90%); ox-alpha +0.594 vs +0.688 (86%); gemini-3.8-flash +0.586 vs +0.688 (85%); claude-fable-5.1 +0.555 vs +0.688 (81%); gpt-6.1-sol -0.067 under exclusion (rank 8 to 9), the only negative delta. GPT-6 Sol's lead over Claude Opus 5.5 goes from 1.306 to 0.776 points; on within-1% from 0.972 to 0.460" + }, + { + "claim": "On several measures exclusion moves the board more than regeneration. It moves less only on rank swaps. Keep moves nothing.", + "evidence": "Computed from leaderboard_impact_{exclude,regenerate}_models.csv: mean |exact delta| 0.439 vs 0.325; mean exact delta +0.437 vs +0.169; score-rank changes 4 vs 2; headline rank swaps 5 pairs vs 10. leaderboard_impact.json leader_margin_over_always_zero_exact: 25.02 to 24.57 under exclusion vs 24.65 under regeneration" + }, + { + "claim": "The Maryland precedent the audit borrows supports keeping the scope as published. That adapter undid an engine change made after the freeze, and the prompt explicitly excluded the item it removed. The payroll prompt names no paid-leave exclusion, and these four values have held across every engine version the board used.", + "evidence": "reference_audit/2026-09-28/README.md:21 (rule 3, \"The benchmark's output definitions hold\"; the adapter \"restores that scope\"); reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_md_local_output_scope.py docstring (state output prompt says \"excluding local income and payroll taxes\"; 1.755.4 had no local entry); policybench/benchmark_specs.json payroll_tax prompt (no paid-leave exclusion); README.md line 43" + }, + { + "claim": "The proposed records' basis requires an engine input the prompt never listed, and the README says no such input exists. Precedent has already stretched this rule: the 'who paid for the coverage' and NIIT exclusions named no engine input. So this is a mismatch with the docstring wording, not a bar to exclusion.", + "evidence": "proposed_exclusions.json \"basis\" (\"depends on an engine input the prompt never listed\"); policybench/reference_exclusions.py:10 docstring; README.md line 170 (\"policyengine-us has no input for the employer's deduction choice\"); frozen reference_exclusions.json records for scenario_002/107/121 and scenario_020" + }, + { + "claim": "For Massachusetts, the amounts published before the freeze support $805.01. After Acts 2026 c. 101 was approved on 2026-06-12, DFML's 2026 rates page still showed a 0.46% employee maximum. The act's own s. 43(a) refers to impacts in calendar year 2027. The statute reviewer found that a literal sequential reading of ss. 25-26 gives small employers an incoherent 40%/40% split. Rule 1 prefers amounts published before the freeze.", + "evidence": "law_research.json MA agency_guidance, Wayback capture 20260617060228 of the DFML rates page (0.28% medical plus 0.18% family); MA statute verdict rate_or_amount_issues (\"line 33 must be 6(d) ... That would give small employers 40%/40%\"); MA administration verdict (\"The 2026-06-17 copy has the same text\"); reference_audit/2026-09-22/README.md:7 (rule 1)" + }, + { + "claim": "Limits of this case, stated plainly. All eight reviews of these four programs found the deduction legally optional, and the law sets the required employee amount at $0. Colorado's statute says \"may deduct\". New York's Workers' Compensation Board says collection is \"allowed, but not required\". Precedent excluded the 'who paid for the coverage' question. Keep rests on the prompt's default rule and on how the law frames the employer's choice, not on a statutory duty to withhold. Massachusetts also carries the open c. 101 question.", + "evidence": "law_research.json verdicts: refuted False on all 8 reviews for MN, CO, MA and NY; CO 507(5); NY agency_guidance (WCB employer page); frozen reference_exclusions.json scenario_002 record" + }, + { + "claim": "Keep fits the README's own long-term fix. The next prompt version can state that the employee share set by law counts unless the facts say the employer pays it. That aligns the prompt with the existing reference and changes no published score.", + "evidence": "README.md line 7 (\"In the next prompt version, state how optional employee shares count\")" + } + ], + "rebuttals_to_readme": [ + "Line 9, \"16 of 16 independent reviews agree\": this backs a claim about the four states, but only 8 reviews cover MN, CO, MA and NY. The other 8 (CT, CA, PA, NJ) found those programs mandatory. All 16 reviews and the explanation classification came from one Claude Code workflow (wf_cecd10dd-abe, per law_research.json and explanations.json 'method'). The September 22 audit verified its fixes on GPT-6 Astra lanes; this audit has no reviewer outside that workflow. The reviewers judged how to classify each program, not whether the reference fails the repo's rules.", + "Line 9, \"the prompt never states the employer's choice ... rests on a fact the prompt does not give\": the README never addresses the prompt's default rules (prompts.py:19-22: unlisted facts are false, and no unlisted income may be inferred). In all four states an employer paying the employee share is framed as an election, and Minnesota's DEED treats it as extra wages.", + "Lines 62-67, \"Points that cut the other way\", leave out evidence the reviewers themselves said should be disclosed. Minnesota: DEED says an employer pickup is \"additional compensation ... as wages\". Massachusetts: the DFML subtitle \"Most Massachusetts employers must make payroll withholdings\"; c. 175M s. 1, whose definition of 'Contributions' includes payments by an employee; and s. 4(a)(ii), which requires notice of \"the employee's contribution amount and obligations\". Colorado gets no bullet at all, though its FAQ says an employer is \"required to pay the 0.44% employer's share and collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share\" and \"Most Colorado businesses should be deducting\". New York: DFS's \"Employers shall collect\"; 12 NYCRR 380-2.6, under which employees \"shall make regular family leave benefit contributions\"; the WCB's \"fully paid for by employees\"; and the PFL site's \"not optional for eligible employees\" and \"Ensure that you are collecting the employee contributions\".", + "Line 67 distinguishes California because an employer's payment counts as wages and the contribution stays the worker's. The law record shows Minnesota works the same way under DEED's guidance. And since California also lets the employer pay instead of deducting (s. 986(a)(2)), California's reference assumes withholding just as much.", + "Line 10, \"a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way\": in the evidence, one of 184 answers cites optional withholding. That model, Grok 4.7, calls Colorado's and Massachusetts' optional shares mandatory. The other answer classed as optional or employer-paid (Claude Sonnet 5 on MA) calls PFML \"employer-side\" and submits 12,318.65, which matches neither reading.", + "Line 103, \"the readings split by family\", presents guesses about the engine as readings of the law. Claude Opus 5.5 says it leaves MA PFML out \"on the assumption the model does not include it\". It leaves out Connecticut's mandatory contribution \"on the assumption that PolicyEngine does not model it\" and misses both Pennsylvania mandatory items. The README notes that Fable 5.1 and Ox Alpha drop mandatory programs but not Opus 5.5's misses on Connecticut and Pennsylvania.", + "Lines 11 and 101, \"take credit from 35 answers that include the program at exactly the engine's amount\": 12 of the 35 are not the engine's amount. Nine Colorado answers of 331.13 used the 2025 rate of 0.45% and are $0.40 off. Three Massachusetts answers of 14,193 are $0.34 off. They count only because of the $1 tolerance.", + "Line 11, \"Regenerating would mostly reward answers that never engaged with the program\": exclusion also stops penalizing those same 82 answers. Claude Opus 5.5 gets 90% of its regeneration gain under exclusion, Ox Alpha 86% and Claude Fable 5.1 81%. The README turns this argument only against regeneration.", + "Line 12, \"Exclusion is the symmetric remedy and moves the board least\": the rule is symmetric, but the effect is not. GPT-6.1 Sol, exact on all four, is the only model whose headline falls (-0.07, rank 8 to 9). GPT-6 Sol's lead over Claude Opus 5.5 shrinks from 1.31 to 0.78 points; the README reports the narrowed gap for regeneration but not for exclusion. Exclusion moves the board less only on rank swaps. On mean absolute change in the headline rate (0.439 vs 0.325), on score-rank changes (4 vs 2) and on the leader's margin over the always-zero baseline (24.57 vs 24.65) it moves more than regeneration. Keep moves nothing.", + "Line 133, \"Payroll exact match across models rises from 78.5% to 81.0%\": this rise comes only from removing 184 rows where most models were wrong. The always-zero baseline rises too, from 69.98% to 70.53%.", + "Line 148 cites the Maryland adapter for its form. The substance of that precedent (2026-09-28 rule 3: the benchmark's output definitions hold) restored the published scope after an engine change, and the prompt explicitly excluded the item. Here the prompt has no such exclusion, and the scope has stood since 2026-06-15. The precedent favors keeping these four references.", + "proposed_exclusions.json 'basis' requires an engine input the prompt never listed, but README line 170 says no such input exists. The records rest on a looser reading of the rule than the one they quote.", + "Line 66 says the c. 101 question \"matters only if the reference is kept\" but leaves out the evidence that resolves it in keep's favor. After c. 101 was approved, DFML's 2026 rates page (Wayback capture of 2026-06-17) still published the 0.46% employee maximum. The act's s. 43(a) refers to 2027. The statute reviewer found that a literal reading gives small employers an incoherent 40%/40% split. Under rule 1's preference for amounts published before the freeze, $805.01 stands.", + "Line 169 says \"Both options need them reworded\" about the case notes. Under keep they largely stand. The exception is scenario_032's note, which is already inaccurate under any option. It says \"many\" models called the deduction optional, but explanations.json shows one. It says \"The one model that did include the paid-leave premium\", but seven did.", + "The README is incomplete as a decision record. Line 3 has the placeholder 'DECISION_ID', and lines 161 and 165 are the unfilled placeholders 'INDEPENDENT_REVIEW' and 'RELEASE_CHECKLIST'. Its board-impact discussion gives no separate column for keep, which is the published board, and it never states that keep moves no rank." + ] + }, + { + "option": "regenerate", + "strongest_case": "The prompt states the output's scope: \"mandatory employee state payroll taxes. Exclude employer payroll taxes.\" Rule 3 of the 2026-09-28 audit: the benchmark's output definitions hold. Its Maryland precedent restored a stated scope with a list-only adapter and kept the outputs scored, because \"with the adapter the output does not depend on the unlisted county\". The payroll adapter does the same: once the definition is applied, no unlisted fact moves the answer.\n\nThe audit's own law record settles what that covers. All 8 reviews of the Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts and New York programs (none refuted) find the premium is the employer's and put the employee's legal floor at $0. They weighed and rejected the \"must\" and \"shall\" passages the README cites. Both clauses of the definition give the federal-only value; the README concedes \"on that wording the frozen value is too high\".\n\nIf \"mandatory\" is read as turning on the employer's election, that election is unlisted, and the run's preface says to treat unlisted numeric inputs as 0 and other unlisted facts as false. Only the frozen value assumes something unstated: that the employer deducts the maximum. The regenerated value survives every caveat in the law record (Acts 2026 c. 101, private plans, collective agreements, employer size), because each moves only the cap.\n\nThe rules pick references by stated facts and law, not by whom they credit. Regeneration keeps all 1,928 outputs scored and the always-zero baseline unchanged, and moves the average headline exact rate less (mean absolute change 0.325 vs 0.439 points). Under the adapter, single earners at the four wage levels reproduce all four values; CA, PA, CT and NJ are unchanged.\n\nAgainst it: the 40-hour precedent excluded rather than applying the zero default, and the adapter keeps Delaware's, Maine's and Vermont's optional shares.", + "points": [ + { + "claim": "The output's definition is stated in the prompt and names exactly the two tests that remove these shares: 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes' and 'Exclude employer payroll taxes'. The same text was in force when the frozen run was generated.", + "evidence": "policybench/benchmark_specs.json:34; the identical text is present at commit 58b65105, the last commit before the run's scenarios were generated at 2026-06-12T05:15Z (git show 58b65105:policybench/benchmark_specs.json)" + }, + { + "claim": "The repo's governing precedent for a stated output definition that the engine's aggregate overshoots is an output-scope adapter that keeps the outputs scored, not exclusion. In the Maryland case the review accepted that adapter because applying the definition removed the dependence on the unlisted fact.", + "evidence": "reference_audit/2026-09-28/README.md:21 (rule 3, 'The benchmark's output definitions hold'); reference_audit/2026-09-28/clusters.json:119 ('Pinning Worcester gives the same value, so with the adapter the output does not depend on the unlisted county'); reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_md_local_output_scope.py (list-only change, same form as fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py); proposed_regenerations.json:6 cites this basis" + }, + { + "claim": "The exclusion precedents that turn on wording apply when the definition is silent. Here it speaks.", + "evidence": "reference_audit/2026-09-22/root_causes.json: NIIT entry, unlisted_input 'whether federal income tax before refundable credits includes the net investment income tax, which the output's definition does not say'; reference_audit/2026-09-22/README.md:10 (rule 4: 'input or definition the prompt never states')" + }, + { + "claim": "The audit's own law record answers what 'mandatory' covers for these four programs. All 8 reviews (statute and administration lens for MN, CO, MA and NY) refuted nothing, classify each as an optional employer pass-through, and put the employee's legal floor at $0. Each researcher rated confidence 'high'.", + "evidence": "verification/law_research.json, programs MN/CO/MA/NY verdicts: MN admin 'the mandatory employee amount is $0'; CO statute 'The legally required employee amount for an ordinary private-sector W-2 employee is $0'; CO admin 'The legally mandatory employee amount is $0'; MA statute and admin 'legally mandatory employee amount of $0'; NY statute 'The legal minimum is $0 if the employer chooses not to collect'; NY admin 'ranges from $0 to $443.11'" + }, + { + "claim": "The reviewers considered and rejected each 'must' and 'shall' passage the README relies on. The MA 'must withhold' line is agency summary prose that the binding regulation contradicts.", + "evidence": "law_research.json MN statute verdict ('If any' expressly contemplates a zero remainder ... It does not require any positive employee amount); MA admin verdict ('The \"must withhold\" overview line is loose summary prose, contradicted by the page's own detailed text and by the regulation'); NY admin verdict ('The manner provided is permissive employer collection under s.209(4)')" + }, + { + "claim": "Even if 'mandatory' is read as conditional on the employer's election, the prompt resolves that unlisted fact. The preface tells models to treat unlisted numeric inputs as 0 and other unlisted facts as false, which means no deduction and the regenerated value. The exclusion record itself says the federal-only value follows 'with an employer that does not deduct it'.", + "evidence": "policybench/prompts.py:19-20 (also present at commit 58b65105); proposed_exclusions.json alternative_reading for each of the four records" + }, + { + "claim": "The regenerated value is the only one that no caveat in the law record moves. Every caveat (Acts 2026 c. 101, private or self-insured plans, collective agreements, employer size, NY's 53 Thursdays) changes the employee cap, not the $0 floor. The frozen value moves with several of them. MA under the literal c. 101 reading would be $1,351.02, not $805.01.", + "evidence": "program_classification.json MA rate_2026; law_research.json MN/CO/MA/NY caveats; README.md:66 ('matters only if the reference is kept')" + }, + { + "claim": "The exclusion reason code does not fit. reference_depends_on_unlisted_input is defined as dependence on 'an engine input the household facts never carried'. policyengine-us has no input for the employer's choice: the formulas apply the rate to taxable wages unconditionally.", + "evidence": "policybench/reference_exclusions.py:14-18; README.md:170; read in the 2.15.17 venv: variables/gov/states/mn/tax/payroll/paid_leave/mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py, ma/.../ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py, co/.../co_employee_famli_contribution.py (formula = rate * taxable wages)" + }, + { + "claim": "I checked the adapter independently on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with single-earner households at each scenario's wages. It gives exactly the four regenerated totals (MN 2,218.50, CO 312.74, MA 13,387.65, NY 7,664.92) and leaves every mandatory program unchanged (CA 4,710.83, PA 4,632.00, CT 13,496.16, NJ 2,162.76). The checked-in sweep also reports that the adapter moves only these four outputs.", + "evidence": "scratchpad/review/advocate-regenerate/check_adapter.py output; verification/sweep_payroll_scope.log ('adapter: 4 outputs move at all'); fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py sha256 74200522... matches proposed_regenerations.json" + }, + { + "claim": "How much each option moves the board depends on the metric. Regeneration moves the average model less on the headline and much less on score. It keeps the always-zero baseline and all 4,554 payroll rows.", + "evidence": "Computed from verification/leaderboard_impact_{exclude,regenerate}_models.csv. Headline exact mean |delta|: exclude 0.439, regenerate 0.325. Score max |delta|: 0.248 vs 0.040. outputGroupScore max |delta|: 0.055 vs 0.013. Score-rank changes: 4 vs 2. Payroll program exact: +2.50 vs +1.03 points. Always-zero baseline: 69.98 to 70.53 vs unchanged. Leader margin over the baseline: 24.57 vs 24.65. Payroll rows: n 4,554 to 4,370 vs unchanged (leaderboard_impact_*_programs.csv). Exclusion has fewer headline swaps (5 vs 10 pairs) and a smaller maximum headline |delta| (0.620 vs 0.688)." + }, + { + "claim": "Under regeneration the four outputs stay as the benchmark's only test of the mandatory-versus-optional distinction the prompt draws. Exclusion removes them until a new prompt and a fresh run.", + "evidence": "README.md:7 (recommendation to restate in the next prompt version); payroll_decomposition.csv (only these 4 scored outputs carry an optional program)" + }, + { + "claim": "Honest counter-evidence: an earlier audit excluded instead of applying the preface's zero default, in the weekly-hours case.", + "evidence": "reference_audit/2026-09-22/root_causes.json:104 (weekly_hours_worked_before_lsr: 'The prompt lists no hours worked and says to treat unlisted numeric inputs as 0; the reference assumed 40 hours'). It differs here: hours is an engine input, SNAP's output definition says nothing about hours, and the zero-hours alternative was 'not a certified entitlement'." + }, + { + "claim": "Honest counter-evidence: one NY reviewer framed the employee share as a range consistent with the prompt's facts. That supports the unlisted-fact framing.", + "evidence": "law_research.json NY administration verdict: 'Under NY law the employee share consistent with the prompt's facts ranges from $0 to $443.11'" + }, + { + "claim": "Honest counter-evidence: as a definition adapter, the regeneration module is incomplete. It keeps Delaware, Maine and Vermont shares that the same law research classifies as optional pass-throughs, and it leaves Washington PFML (mixed) undecided. No benchmark household is affected.", + "evidence": "fixes/payroll_mandatory_scope.py OPTIONAL lists only CO, MA, MN, NY; law_research.json OTHER classifies DE, ME and VT as optional_employer_pass_through; my 2.15.17 run at $50,000 of wages keeps DE 200.00, ME 250.00 and VT 55.00 under the adapter" + }, + { + "claim": "Honest counter-evidence: the answers that match the frozen value come from models stronger on the mandatory programs.", + "evidence": "Computed from explanations.json and model_answers.csv. On average, the 35 frozen-matching answers come from models that include a mandatory state program on 5.57 of 7 mandatory outputs, against 2.88 for the 82 answers regeneration would credit." + } + ], + "rebuttals_to_readme": [ + "README.md:9 '16 of 16 independent reviews agree' is attached to a claim about the four optional states, but only 8 reviews cover MN, CO, MA and NY. The other 8 review CT, CA, PA and NJ, which are classified mandatory (law_research.json).", + "README.md:9 leaves out that every review of the four programs puts the employee's legal floor at $0, and that six say outright that the mandatory or required employee amount is $0. That finding is the regenerated value, not a reason to exclude.", + "README.md:10 calls the readings 'a real split', yet the README's own law section (README.md:62-67) and all 8 reviews resolve each 'must'/'shall' passage against the mandatory reading. The MA 'must withhold' quote is agency overview prose that the MA administration reviewer called 'loose summary prose, contradicted by the page's own detailed text and by the regulation' (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)). The README quotes it without that judgment.", + "README.md:10 concedes 'On that wording the frozen value is too high'. The prompt's wording is what 2026-09-28 rule 3 says must hold, so the concession grants the premise for regeneration.", + "README.md:10 treats '22 of 46 models included the Massachusetts and New York contributions' as evidence of ambiguity. It picks the two highest counts: inclusion is 7 (MN), 18 (CO), 22 and 22, or 69 of 184 overall. By the same test, Pennsylvania's mandatory contribution (12 and 15 include; 17 and 16 say none, README.md:97) would be 'a real split', yet it stays scored. The README itself says the explanations 'look the same' where the law requires the contribution, so model splits cannot tell ambiguous outputs from clear ones. Of the 22 MA includers only 9 match, with rates from 0.24% to 0.604% (explanations.json).", + "README.md:10 applies the 'careful reader could take the stated facts the other way' test from reference_exclusions.py to a dispute about law, not facts. The stated facts (wages, state) are complete. The one unstated fact, the employer's election, is covered by the preface's default for unlisted facts (prompts.py:19-20), which points to the regenerated value.", + "The proposed exclusion uses reason code reference_depends_on_unlisted_input, which reference_exclusions.py:14-18 defines as dependence on 'an engine input the household facts never carried'. README.md:170 itself says policyengine-us has no input for the employer's deduction choice. The class that fits is the 2026-09-28 rule 3 output-scope adapter.", + "README.md:11 'Regenerating would mostly reward answers that never engaged with the program' applies a criterion no repo rule contains. The rules choose a reference by stated facts and pre-freeze law, and the scorer reads numbers, not reasons, on every other output too.", + "README.md:11 is also overstated on its own terms. Four of the 6 'other' answers it would credit name the program and leave it out: Claude Opus 5.5 on MA ('about $805 at 0.46% ... is excluded'), Claude Sonnet 5.5 on MA, Claude Fable 5 on NY and Claude Opus 4.7 on CO. 66 of the 82 credited answers come from models that include a mandatory state program elsewhere. The README's paraphrase 'say the state has no employee payroll tax' drops the qualifier 'mandatory', which 32 of the 46 such quotes on the four outputs carry. Under the law record that qualified statement is true, although the same phrasing on PA (11 of 17 and 13 of 16) shows it often echoes the prompt.", + "README.md:11 and :101 say regeneration 'would take credit from 35 answers that include the program at exactly the engine's amount'. Nine of those 35 are Colorado answers of 331.13 that used the pre-2026 0.45% FAMLI rate ($18.40, not the engine's $17.99) and count as exact only through the $1 tolerance (explanations.json scenario_043). Four of the 35 call the contribution 'mandatory', which the law record says it is not. Exclusion also takes credit from all 35 answers.", + "README.md:12 'Exclusion is the symmetric remedy' turns a description of how exclusion works (reference_exclusions.py:35) into a reason to choose it. The rules assign the remedy by cause, and a regenerated reference applies equally to every model.", + "README.md:12 'moves the board least' holds only for rank swaps (5 vs 10 headline pairs) and maximum headline |delta| (0.620 vs 0.688). On the other measures exclusion moves the board more. Mean headline |delta| is 0.439 vs 0.325. Score max |delta| is 0.248 vs 0.040. outputGroupScore max |delta| is 0.055 vs 0.013. Payroll program exact rises 2.50 points vs 1.03. Exclusion also raises the always-zero baseline from 69.98 to 70.53 and cuts GPT-6 Sol's margin over it to 24.57, against 24.65 under regeneration (leaderboard_impact_*.csv/json).", + "README.md:12 cites 'puts Claude Opus 5.5 first on the within-1% metric' in the recommendation. Rank outcomes are not a criterion in any rule. Opus 5.5 gains nearly as much under exclusion (93.70 to 94.32) as under regeneration (94.39); the difference between the options falls mostly on GPT-6 Sol (95.09 vs 94.63).", + "README.md:103 'Claude Fable 5.1 and Ox Alpha leave out every state program, mandatory ones included' is wrong for Ox Alpha. It includes California SDI on scenario_022 ('mandatory California employee SDI at 1.2% = $632') and scenario_023 (explanations.json).", + "README.md:103 does not say that Claude Opus 5.5, the model regeneration helps most, matches all four California SDI references at the 2026 1.3% rate (model_answers.csv), so its federal-only answers on the optional programs are not a general failure to know state programs.", + "README.md:7 recommends stating in the next prompt version how optional employee shares count. The current prompt already does so through 'mandatory' and 'Exclude employer payroll taxes', and through its default for unlisted facts. Exclusion forfeits the four outputs until a fresh run.", + "README.md:66 says the Acts 2026 c. 101 question 'matters only if the reference is kept'. That robustness argues for regeneration: the federal-only value is the only one that no caveat in the law record (c. 101, private plans, collective agreements, employer size) changes.", + "The published case notes mark legally correct reasoning as error. scenario_032's note counts 'the paid-leave deduction is optional' as a model mistake, and scenario_081's note calls PFML 'mandatory' (annotations/.../us_case_notes.csv:294, :641). Regeneration lets the reworded notes state what the law record found. Exclusion records the question as one a careful reader could take either way, which contradicts the audit's own unanimous classification.", + "The README is incomplete. Placeholders DECISION_ID, INDEPENDENT_REVIEW and RELEASE_CHECKLIST are unfilled (README.md:3, :161, :165)." + ] + } + ], + "judge": { + "best_supported_option": "exclude", + "readme_recommendation_survives": true, + "reasons": "Exclusion is the best-supported option, and the README's recommendation survives. Several of the README's supporting arguments are wrong or overstated and need fixing before release.\n\nKEEP FAILS UNDER THE REPO'S OWN TEST. Rule 1 of 2026-09-22 and the reference_exclusions.py docstring say a scored reference must \"follow from the facts the prompt states under the law\".\n- All 8 reviews of MN, CO, MA and NY found the engine amounts to be legal maxima. None refuted the classification. Each put the legally required employee amount at $0.\n- I read the engine source this session. mn_ and ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution state \"assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share\". co_employee_famli_contribution is rate x taxable wages, with no input for the employer's choice.\n- So the frozen values (MN 127.60, CO 17.99, MA 805.01, NY 443.11) depend on an engine assumption, not on a stated fact.\n- Keep's appeal to the prompt's default (\"unlisted ... fact ... as false\") fails because the regenerate brief applies the same default with the opposite result. The default does not say which state is the \"fact\": the employer deducting, or the employer paying.\n- Keep's reading of the Maryland precedent is also wrong. 2026-09-28 rule 3 says the output definition holds. It does not say the published scope holds.\n\nREGENERATE IS THE STRONG ALTERNATIVE, BUT IT REQUIRES THE STRICT READING OF \"MANDATORY\" AS THE ONLY READING.\n- The law record itself treats the employee amount as depending on the employer's choice:\n - MN research caveat: \"Under a strict reading of the benchmark's 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes', the mandatory Minnesota employee amount is $0\".\n - MA summary: \"$0, unless one adopts the engine's assumption that the employer deducts the maximum\".\n - NY administration verdict: \"the employee share consistent with the prompt's facts ranges from $0 to $443.11\".\n- MN subd. 3 (\"Employees ... must pay the remaining portion, if any\") and NY WCL 209(1) (\"shall contribute\") place statutory duties on the employee. Once the employer withholds, the employee cannot opt out.\n- A careful reader could therefore count the statutory employee share as a \"mandatory employee state payroll tax\". That makes this a reference that turns on a fact or definition the prompt does not state. 2026-09-22 rule 4 (\"input or definition the prompt never states\") and 2026-09-28 rule 4 send that case to exclusion.\n\nTHE CLOSEST PRECEDENTS ALL EXCLUDED.\n- r24 (scenario_002, 107 and 121): who paid for the coverage, which is an employer-arrangement fact that decides the tax.\n- r25 NIIT (scenario_020): definition ambiguity.\n- r14 (scenario_056 and 112): the reference assumed 40 hours where the zero default arguably applied. The repo excluded rather than regenerating to the default.\n- The Maryland adapter, which the regenerate brief relies on, differs in two ways. Its definition was explicit (\"excluding local income and payroll taxes\"). And it reproduced the board's published values (scenario_068 equal; scenario_078 +0.539). Here regeneration would change values that have stood since 2026-06-15, by $17.99 to $805.01.\n- \"How the records follow\" #3 in 2026-09-22 prescribes exclusion with an alternative value for an unlisted-input reading, which is what proposed_exclusions.json does.\n\nREGENERATE'S REAL STRENGTHS. The README must answer them, not dismiss them:\n- The README concedes \"On that wording the frozen value is too high\".\n- The $0 floor is unchanged by every caveat in the law record (c.101, private plans, collective agreements, employer size).\n- The scope adapter is clean: the checked-in sweep log says the adapter moves 4 outputs and nothing else.\n\nTHE BOARD-IMPACT AND MODEL-BEHAVIOUR ARGUMENTS ON ALL SIDES ARE NOT RULE CRITERIA AND DO NOT DECIDE THIS.\n- Model inclusion rates are the same on mandatory programs: PA 12 and 15 include, CT 20.\n- Exclusion moves the board less on some metrics and more on others. Headline swaps are 5 vs 10 pairs, but mean |delta| is 0.439 vs 0.325 and score max |delta| is 0.248 vs 0.040.\n- The asymmetry argument cuts both ways. GPT-6.1 Sol, exact on all four, falls 0.067 under exclusion but 0.688 under regeneration.\n\nWHAT THE RECORD NEEDS BEFORE RELEASE.\n- The basis line in proposed_exclusions.json cites \"an engine input the prompt never listed\". README line 170 says no such input exists. The line should cite 2026-09-22 rule 4 and 2026-09-28 rule 4, and the r24 and r25 precedents.\n- The placeholders DECISION_ID, INDEPENDENT_REVIEW and RELEASE_CHECKLIST must be filled.\n- All 16 reviews ran in one Claude Code workflow (wf_cecd10dd-abe). The 2026-09-22 fixes were checked on GPT-6 Astra lanes; this audit has no outside-workflow review yet.\n\nI modified nothing in the checkout. My scratch files are in /private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/224fe5b6-f6e8-4204-af8f-2508970193bc/scratchpad/review/judge/ (stats.py, law_dump.txt).", + "readme_errors_or_overstatements": [ + "Line 9, \"16 of 16 independent reviews agree\": the claim is about the four optional states, but only 8 reviews cover MN, CO, MA and NY. The other 8 confirm CT, CA, PA and NJ as mandatory_employee_withholding. All 16 ran in one Claude Code workflow (law_research.json method: wf_cecd10dd-abe), so \"independent\" means separate agents in that workflow, not reviewers outside it.", + "Line 10, \"22 of 46 models included the Massachusetts and New York contributions. That is the case the exclusion rule covers\": model inclusion is not evidence of a careful reader's split. Line 89 itself says the explanations \"look the same\" where the law requires the contribution: PA 12 and 15 include, CT 20. Across the four outputs inclusion is 7, 18, 22 and 22 (69 of 184). Of the 22 MA includers only 9 are exact.", + "Line 10 cites MN \"must pay\", NY \"shall contribute\" and MA \"must withhold\" as making the split \"real\". It does not report that every reviewer weighed these passages and rejected them as setting any required amount. The MA administration reviewer called \"must withhold\" \"loose summary prose, contradicted by the page's own detailed text and by the regulation\". The defensible ground is narrower: the legal floor is $0, but the benchmark's word \"mandatory\" can be read as the statutory employee share the employer withholds by default, or as the legal floor. The README should say that, not imply the law itself is split.", + "Line 10 concedes \"On that wording the frozen value is too high\" and moves on. Unexplained, that concession grants the premise of 2026-09-28 rule 3 (output definitions hold) and supports regeneration.", + "Lines 11 and 101, \"35 answers that include the program at exactly the engine's amount\": 9 of the 35 are Colorado answers of 331.13 at the stale 0.45% rate ($18.40, not $17.99). They count as exact only through the $1 tolerance (explanations.json scenario_043). The 3 MA answers of 14,193 are whole-dollar roundings at the right 0.46% rate.", + "Lines 11 and 101, \"Regenerating would mostly reward answers that never engaged with the program\": no repo rule makes that a criterion. It is also overstated:\n- 4 of the 6 \"other\" answers name the program and leave it out (Claude Opus 5.5 MA, Claude Sonnet 5.5 MA, Claude Fable 5 NY, Claude Opus 4.7 CO).\n- 66 of the 82 newly credited answers come from models that include a mandatory state program elsewhere.\n- 25 of the 36 \"no state tax\" answers say \"no mandatory\", which is literally true under the law record. The README's paraphrase drops the qualifier.\n- Exclusion also stops penalizing the same answers: Claude Opus 5.5 gets 90% of its regeneration gain under exclusion (+0.620 vs +0.688), Ox Alpha 86%, Gemini 3.8 Flash 85%, Claude Fable 5.1 81%.", + "Line 12, \"moves the board least\": this holds only for headline rank swaps (5 vs 10 pairs) and max |delta| (0.620 vs 0.688). Exclusion moves more on:\n- mean |exact delta|: 0.439 vs 0.325\n- mean exact delta: +0.437 vs +0.169\n- score max |delta|: 0.248 vs 0.040\n- outputGroupScore max |delta|: 0.055 vs 0.013\n- score-rank changes: 4 vs 2\n- the always-zero baseline: 69.98 to 70.53, vs unchanged\n- GPT-6 Sol's margin over that baseline: 24.57 vs 24.65\nKeep moves nothing. Board movement is not a rule criterion either way.", + "Line 12 puts \"Claude Opus 5.5 first on the within-1% metric\" in the recommendation. Rank outcomes are not a rule criterion, and listing them invites a reading that the choice is outcome-driven. The README also omits that exclusion narrows the GPT-6 Sol lead over Claude Opus 5.5 from 1.306 to 0.776 points on exact match, and from 0.972 to 0.460 on within-1%. It reports the narrowed gap only for regeneration.", + "Line 103, \"Claude Fable 5.1 and Ox Alpha leave out every state program, mandatory ones included\": wrong for Ox Alpha. It includes CA SDI on scenario_022 (4,658, \"mandatory California employee SDI at 1.2% = $632\") and scenario_023 (1,544).", + "Line 103, \"the readings split by family\": this presents engine guesses as legal readings. Claude Opus 5.5 leaves out MA PFML \"on the assumption the model does not include it\", and CT's mandatory contribution \"on the assumption that PolicyEngine does not model it\". It also misses PA scenario_028 and scenario_123, while matching all four CA SDI references. The README notes the mandatory misses of Fable 5.1 and Ox Alpha but not those of Opus 5.5.", + "Lines 62-67, \"Points that cut the other way\", leave out counter-evidence the reviewers said should be disclosed:\n- MN: DEED's taxes page says an employer pickup is \"additional compensation ... as wages\", and the employee may deduct the amount \"that the employer pays on their behalf\".\n- CO: no bullet at all, despite the FAQ's \"required to pay the 0.44% employer's share and collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share\" and \"Most Colorado businesses should be deducting\".\n- MA: the subtitle \"Most Massachusetts employers must make payroll withholdings\"; c.175M s.1 (Contributions include employee payments); s.4(a)(ii) notice of \"the employee's contribution amount and obligations\".\n- NY: DFS \"Employers shall collect employee contributions\"; 12 NYCRR 380-2.6 \"shall make regular family leave benefit contributions\"; the PFL site's \"Ensure that you are collecting\"; WCB \"fully paid for by employees\".", + "Line 62, \"each engine amount equals the law's largest employee share to the cent\": overstated for NY DBL. The cap is $0.60 a week, and 2026 has 53 Thursdays, so a Thursday payroll's legal maximum is $31.80, not the engine's $31.20 (within $1). It is also overstated for MA under the literal c.101 reading ($1,351.02), though the README discloses that one.", + "Line 66 describes the c.101 question without the pre-freeze evidence for 0.46%:\n- DFML's rates page captured 2026-06-17, after c.101's approval, still shows the 0.46% maximum.\n- The act's s.43(a) refers to calendar year 2027.\n- The statute reviewer found that a literal sequential reading of ss.25-26 gives small employers 40%/40%.\nThis matters only to keep, but the record should be complete.", + "Line 169, \"Both options need them reworded\": understated. The scenario_032 note is already wrong under every option. It says \"The one model that did include the paid-leave premium used 0.35%\", but explanations.json has 7 includers and 6 exact matches at 2,346.10. The scenario_081 note's \"mandatory\" contradicts the law record whichever option is adopted.", + "proposed_exclusions.json \"basis\" says the reference \"depends on an engine input the prompt never listed\". README line 170 and the engine source (co_employee_famli_contribution is rate x co_famli_taxable_wages) show that no such input exists. The basis should cite 2026-09-22 rule 4 (\"input or definition the prompt never states\") and 2026-09-28 rule 4, and the r24 and r25 precedents. Those used reference_depends_on_unlisted_input with no engine input.", + "The decision record is incomplete. DECISION_ID (line 3), INDEPENDENT_REVIEW (line 161) and RELEASE_CHECKLIST (line 165) are unfilled placeholders. The README also never cites the closest precedent for its own recommendation: r24, \"who paid for the coverage\", an employer-arrangement fact the prompt omits, which was excluded." + ], + "arguments_readme_must_answer": [ + "Regenerate brief, rule 3: \"The benchmark's output definitions hold\" (2026-09-28). The README concedes the frozen value is too high on the prompt's wording, and all 8 reviews put the legally required employee amount at $0. The README must explain why this is a two-reading case under rule 4 and not a definition case under rule 3. It should also say why the Maryland adapter does not govern: that definition was explicit, and the adapter preserved the published values (scenario_068 equal, scenario_078 +0.539), where regeneration would change values that have stood since 2026-06-15.", + "Regenerate brief: the regenerated value is the only one no caveat in the law record moves (c.101, private and self-insured plans, collective agreements, employer size, NY's 53 Thursdays), because each caveat changes only the cap and not the $0 floor.", + "Regenerate brief and keep brief, mirror images: each says the preface (\"Treat ... any other unlisted household fact ... as false\"; \"Do not infer unlisted income\") resolves the employer's choice in its favor. The README never addresses the preface. Its best answer is that the default is indeterminate here: whether the deduction or the pickup is the \"fact\" depends on each statute's framing. That is the 40-hour precedent (r14), which excluded instead of applying the zero default.", + "Both briefs: the reason code reference_depends_on_unlisted_input is defined in reference_exclusions.py as dependence on \"an engine input the household facts never carried\", and README line 170 says no such input exists. The README must cite the precedents that used this code for a definition or arrangement question without an engine input (r25 NIIT scenario_020; r24 scenario_002, 107 and 121), or reword the basis.", + "Keep brief: the statutes frame the employer paying the employee share as an election. CO 7 CCR 1107-1 s.1.4(6)(A): \"considered to have elected to pay\". MN DEED: employers \"may choose to pay more than their required portion\". MA 458 CMR 2.05(5)(c): \"opts to deduct a lower percentage\". On that framing the no-election default is the maximum deduction.", + "Keep brief: DEED treats a Minnesota employer pickup as additional wages, with the 0.44% still the employee's for federal tax. That parallels the structure the README uses at line 67 to call California mandatory. The README's distinction has to rest on state law: California's worker contribution is still owed when the employer pays (s.986(a)(2), DE 231Q gross-up), while Minnesota's employee owes only \"the remaining portion, if any\".", + "Keep brief: exclusion's effect is not neutral. GPT-6.1 Sol, exact on all four, is the only model whose headline falls under exclusion (-0.067, rank 8 to 9). The README should report that, together with the exclusion-case narrowing of the GPT-6 Sol over Claude Opus 5.5 gap (1.306 to 0.776 exact; 0.972 to 0.460 within-1%). It should also note that regeneration costs GPT-6.1 Sol more (-0.688).", + "Regenerate brief: on the metrics listed above, exclusion moves the board more than regeneration on everything except headline rank swaps and max |delta|. The README must either drop \"moves the board least\" or qualify it.", + "Regenerate brief: the inclusion counts cannot separate ambiguous outputs from clear ones. The PA mandatory pattern (17 and 16 say there is no state tax) matches the optional outputs, so the \"22 of 46\" argument for a real split must be replaced with the definitional argument.", + "Regenerate brief: under exclusion the four outputs stop testing the mandatory-versus-optional distinction until a new prompt version and a fresh run. The README should state that cost and commit to the prompt change on line 7.", + "Regenerate brief: the published case notes count legally correct reasoning as model error. scenario_032 treats \"the paid-leave deduction is optional\" as a mistake, and scenario_081 calls PFML \"mandatory\". The README should say how the notes for excluded outputs will be reworded.", + "Keep brief: the judges annotated all 149 wrong answers on the four outputs and flagged no reference (reference_suspect False on every row). The README should note this, and note that the judges were not asked to research the employer-deduction law, so the lack of a flag is weak evidence.", + "Keep brief: pre-freeze evidence supports the 0.46% Massachusetts cap: the 2026-06-17 DFML capture, c.101 s.43(a), and the 40%/40% incoherence of the literal reading. This should be recorded even though it matters only to keep." + ] + } + }, + "release_checklist": { + "exclude": [ + { + "item": "Before installing anything, record Max's ruling. Set decided_on on the four records to the ruling date. Fill the README placeholders DECISION_ID, INDEPENDENT_REVIEW and RELEASE_CHECKLIST, which are still literal tokens at this commit.", + "where": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_exclusions.json:3 (status), README.md:5 and the INDEPENDENT_REVIEW / RELEASE_CHECKLIST lines" + }, + { + "item": "Insert the four records into reference_exclusions.json BEFORE the trailing scenario_023 head_medicaid_eligible record and write with json.dumps(indent=2)+'\\n'. The test requires the list's tail to equal final_actions.json audit_exclusions. Appending at the end fails it; observed on a scratch clone: tail [...'2026-10-05'] != [...'2026-09-29'].", + "where": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/reference_exclusions.json; tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:221-223, 229-232" + }, + { + "item": "Put any new 'derivation' text BEFORE the 'On 2026-09-29 the references moved to policyengine-us 2.15.17' marker. Otherwise change the test, which requires derivation == base + exclusion_derivation(...).", + "where": "tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:224-228; reference_audit/2026-09-28/scripts/build_references_latest.py:173-198" + }, + { + "item": "Decide whether to give the four records one shared unlisted_input string. As drafted they add four separate keys of count 1 each to the manifest's by_unlisted_input tally and to paper_results.excluded_outputs_by_input. #191 uses one shared string for its three.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:330-337; policybench/paper_results.py:1125-1133" + }, + { + "item": "Add four developer adjudications to us_adjudications.json. Each needs every REQUIRED_FIELD plus: judge_model claude-opus-5-5, judge_failure_source llm_error, judge_failure_subtype state_local_rule, judge_reference_suspect false, adjudicated_failure_source prompt_ambiguity, excluded_from_scoring true, and reference_verdict unlisted_input with a reference_basis. The freeze refuses the run unless the adjudication set equals the exclusion set and the judge fields match each case's verdict.json.", + "where": "annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json; policybench/adjudications.py:26-38, 84-121; scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:315-328, 358-403" + }, + { + "item": "Take judged_on_utc from the published audit tree: 2026-09-29 for 032, 081 and 082, and 2026-09-22 for 043. Point the freeze's AUDIT_CASES_DIR at results/local/gpt61sol-stage/gpt61sol-v1/audit/cases. The default unified_audit tree holds older verdicts for 032, 081 and 082 (dated 2026-09-22/23; sha a5c2b9ca, e4da4b03, 37043eaf, against the published 354482e6, b29fd367, b7a89645). The classes are the same, but the dates and judge-provenance tallies would come from a stale tree.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:175, 237-313, 406-410" + }, + { + "item": "Add the new adjudication wave. Extend date_conventions, which names only 2026-09-05, 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29. Add a wave_releases entry and four case entries to the judge evidence, or give the wave its own evidence file. Update the test, which raises KeyError '2026-10-05' (observed), looks up evidence['cases'][case] at :763, and asserts wave == '2026-09-29' at :766. While there, fill the 2026-09-29 wave's commit: it is still null although d616e67c merged.", + "where": "us_adjudications.json date_conventions; reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json; tests/test_adjudications.py:694-784" + }, + { + "item": "Scope the restatement test to release 20260929's cases. It asserts the current record's cases equal that release's exactly, so any added entry fails it (observed).", + "where": "tests/test_adjudications.py:639" + }, + { + "item": "Apply the adjudications with scripts/apply_adjudications.py. This relabels 145 llm_error rows to prompt_ambiguity: 38 on 032, 30 on 043, 36 on 081 and 41 on 082. 43 of them also change subtype to state_local_rule (27 thresholds_rates, 13 payroll_tax_base, 3 other). The 4 parse_contract_failure rows stay: glm-5.2 and kimi-k2.6 on 032, kimi-k2.6 on 081 and on 082. The four case notes take prompt_ambiguity and the appended adjudication sentence.", + "where": "annotations/.../us_audit_row_annotations.csv, us_case_notes.csv; policybench/adjudications.py:206-264, 267-354; tests/test_paper_results.py:364-380" + }, + { + "item": "Reword case note 032. It counts the optional reading as a model error: 'many said outright that Minnesota has no mandatory employee payroll tax or that the paid-leave deduction is optional'. It also lists 'Minnesota's Paid Leave employee contribution of $127.60' as a fixed piece of the reference.", + "where": "us_case_notes.csv scenario_032 payroll_tax" + }, + { + "item": "Reword case note 043. It says 'Colorado's FAMLI program charges employees half of a 0.88% premium' and treats 'dropped FAMLI on purpose' as an error. It also gives FICA as $312.75 in one sentence and $312.73 in the next; the engine's federal part is $312.74.", + "where": "us_case_notes.csv scenario_043 payroll_tax" + }, + { + "item": "Reword case note 081, which says 'the mandatory Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) employee contribution' and treats 'treated it as employer-only' as an error.", + "where": "us_case_notes.csv scenario_081 payroll_tax" + }, + { + "item": "Reword case note 082, which says 'The requested payroll_tax output includes mandatory employee state payroll taxes. In New York those are Paid Family Leave (PFL) and disability benefits (DBL) contributions.'", + "where": "us_case_notes.csv scenario_082 payroll_tax" + }, + { + "item": "Reword the row annotations that state the program is mandatory. A regex finds at least 47 of the 149 (032: 8, 043: 14, 081: 9, 082: 16), for example grok-4.7 on 032: 'Minnesota Paid Leave premiums are mandatory from 2026'. Others call the claim that a state has no mandatory employee tax 'wrong', for example claude-opus-4.8 on 082.", + "where": "annotations/.../us_audit_row_annotations.csv (149 rows on the four outputs)" + }, + { + "item": "Optionally fix scenario_032's frozen narrative. It calls the premium a 'contribution requirement' and names mn_paid_leave_contribution, which does not exist in policyengine-us 2.15.17 (the variable is mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution). The r33 exclusion set the precedent of rewriting a misstated frozen narrative.", + "where": "annotations/.../us_case_reference_explanations.csv; tests/test_reference_audit.py:382-401" + }, + { + "item": "Extend the record-date rule in the reference-audit test so records decided after the 2026-09-22 wave carry their own date. The filter excludes only 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-29, so the new records fail it (observed: '2026-10-05' == '2026-09-22').", + "where": "tests/test_reference_audit.py:288-300" + }, + { + "item": "Let the sweep-table test accept exclusions decided after the upgrade. sweep_moves.csv marks the four outputs excluded=False, and the test requires that column to match the record (observed failure on scenario_032).", + "where": "tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:94-108; reference_audit/2026-09-28/sweep_moves.csv rows 558, 714, 1304, 1326" + }, + { + "item": "Change len(scored) == 1928 and its comment to 1,924, or 1,921 with #191.", + "where": "tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:358-360" + }, + { + "item": "Retire or re-scope the committed-snapshot test in the gpt61sol suite. It pins release 20260929's reference_exclusions.json sha bf4e6a24..., BASE_EXCLUSIONS 56, the 28/28 reason split and BASE_SCORED (observed: 'does not match its pin'). Read the base files from git at BASE_COMMIT instead.", + "where": "tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:400-418; scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py:133-150" + }, + { + "item": "Build a release driver. freeze_gpt61sol.py refuses any change to the exclusions ('this release has no reference revision') and any incumbent drift. freeze_snapshot.py's SOURCE_RUN, PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_SOURCE and PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_ARTIFACT still name the 42-model 20260922c bundle, so do not run its main() as-is. Precedent: 20260922b (ba886b4c) edited those constants directly; 20260930 overrode them in-process.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py:205-232, 600-617; scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py:564-571; scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:101-129, 1760-1785" + }, + { + "item": "Refreeze the payload, the analysis CSVs and the manifest. This sets scored=false on 184 rows; n becomes 1,924 and every modelStats row moves by -0.07 to +0.62 points. The freeze re-pins the hashes the snapshot tests check (observed failing before refreeze: manifest source-run and annotation hashes, bootstrap estimates, impact summaries, and test_manuscript_views.py:71).", + "where": "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json and runs/.../data.json.gz, analysis/*; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:32-151, 1028, 1048; tests/test_manuscript_views.py:71" + }, + { + "item": "Update the release pointers: app/src/data.artifact.json, PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_ARTIFACT, and app/src/paperSnapshot.json after re-rendering. Rewrite data.versions.json's description: 'the 56 excluded outputs ... 52 from policyengine-us 1.755.4, 4 from 2.15.17' becomes 60 (52, 8), or 63 (52, 11) with #191. Keep snapshotLabel 'Snapshot 2026-09-30', since the models and answers are unchanged (20260922b precedent). Uploading the release asset is a publish step that needs Max.", + "where": "app/src/data.versions.json; app/src/data.artifact.json; tests/test_disclosures.py:690 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Change the expand page's leader pin from 95.003 to 95.093 and the copy from '95.0%' to '95.1%'. With #191 the values are 95.749 and '95.7%'.", + "where": "app/tests/expandPage.test.ts:73-83" + }, + { + "item": "Rescore the sensitivity evidence with scripts/sensitivity_by_variable.py and then scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py --release . Fable 5.1 auto goes from 91.728 to 92.349 and Fable 5 thinking from 91.521 to 92.129 (observed). Update n 1928, 'fifty-six' and the doc's table, and copy the new autoExact values into servingSensitivity.ts.", + "where": "sensitivity/data/claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json:23-24,38; sensitivity/data/claude-thinking-2026-08.json; sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md:50,59,89,150; app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts:38-61; tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py:127,217,239" + }, + { + "item": "Revise paper/index.qmd in three places. Add the employer-deduction reading to 'The unlisted inputs behind the unlisted-input exclusions...' (line 1087). Extend 'moved on 1.755.4 or, for the state and local tax refund reading, on 2.15.17' to cover the paid-leave sweep on 2.15.17. Add a reference-review table row for the October payroll audit beside 'US payroll and overtime' (line 888). Then re-render and run freeze_snapshot.py --rendered-only. The abstract sentence is generated: 'the 28 ... and the 32 whose references depend on an input' (35 with #191).", + "where": "paper/index.qmd:886-893, 970, 1087; tests/test_disclosures.py:617-634 (observed failing on the stale render)" + }, + { + "item": "Update the benchmark card: line 73 (56 → 60; '4 with 2.15.17' → 8), 105-109 (audit counts), 122 (69 → 73), 144 ('Fifty-six outputs in 39 households' → 'Sixty outputs in 41 households'), 156 ('Twenty-eight' → 'Thirty-two', and add the paid-leave reading to the list), 173 (1,928 → 1,924) and 175 ('55 answers that never parsed' → 59).", + "where": "docs/benchmark_card.md:73-74,105-109,122,144,156-160,173,175; tests/test_disclosures.py:767 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Update the paper guide's audit counts and its exclusion and scored counts.", + "where": "docs/paper.md:70-71, 77-78" + }, + { + "item": "Notes: no note carries dashboard-data-20260930, so SUPERSEDED_RELEASES and CURRENT_RELEASE_SNAPSHOT change only if a release note is added. Decide whether the 2026-09-29 Sonnet note, which says Sonnet is #5 and GPT-6 Luna #4, gets a later-release sentence as cb312fd7 added to superseded notes. Under exclusion Sonnet passes Luna, 92.52 to 92.34.", + "where": "tests/test_notes.py:78-96; app/src/notes/2026-09-29-claude-sonnet-5-5-debuts-fifth.json" + }, + { + "item": "If #191 lands in the same release, reword its scenario_081 record. It says the household's 'Massachusetts paid family and medical leave contributions ($805.01)' are left out of SALT as deductible taxes, but this audit classifies that share as an optional employer pass-through: up to $805.01, and only if the employer deducts it.", + "where": "git show 8af912a0:reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json (scenario_081 alternative_reading); 8af912a0 README 'Related engine issues'" + }, + { + "item": "Optionally add a later-revision line to the 2026-09-28 README, which states '1,928 scored outputs and 56 exclusions'. The 09-22 README set the precedent for recording later revisions.", + "where": "reference_audit/2026-09-28/README.md:13" + } + ], + "regenerate": [ + { + "item": "Before installing anything, record Max's ruling. Set the revision date to the ruling date and fill the README placeholders DECISION_ID, INDEPENDENT_REVIEW and RELEASE_CHECKLIST.", + "where": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/proposed_regenerations.json:3; README.md" + }, + { + "item": "Write the four values (2218.5, 312.74322509765625, 13387.65234375, 7664.91748046875) into BOTH reference CSVs. The top-level copy must equal the run copy.", + "where": "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/.../reference_outputs.csv; paper/snapshot/20260501/us_reference_outputs.csv; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:629-642" + }, + { + "item": "Fix propose_changes.py's docstring. It says a release 'adds one output_scope revision to the reference sidecar, as the Maryland adapter was recorded', which is false. The sidecar has no output_scope kind; the Maryland adapter is a fix_modules entry inside the single engine_upgrade revision.", + "where": "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/scripts/propose_changes.py:7-11; runs/.../reference_outputs.csv.meta.json (engine_upgrade fix_modules)" + }, + { + "item": "Choose how to record the revision. Option (a): a trailing revision of a new kind. That needs read_reference_engine_setup and the upgrade-test helper relaxed, since both require the single engine_upgrade revision to be the last one. On a scratch clone that helper broke 8 tests by itself. Option (b): add the adapter to the engine_upgrade revision. That rewrites the 2026-09-29 record, whose modules must live in reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:1414-1442; tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:46-51, 88-91" + }, + { + "item": "Update reference_csv_sha256 in the sidecar. Give the revision a convention or root_cause key; regenerated_references_by_source keys on those and would key on None otherwise. Add a paper_results accessor if the paper reports this regeneration, because regenerated_reference_keys counts only convention and upstream_fix revisions.", + "where": "runs/.../reference_outputs.csv.meta.json; policybench/paper_results.py:1290-1302, 1530-1537" + }, + { + "item": "Decide whether to advance regenerated_at_utc. The freeze dates the references by it, the test pins it to 2026-09-29, and the paper prints r.reference_rebuilt_date.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:1360-1385; tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:403-405; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py (refresh-date test); tests/test_reference_provenance.py:191 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Add payroll_mandatory_scope.py to OUTPUT_SCOPE_ADAPTERS and to the module check, and rewrite the reproducibility note 'the Maryland output-scope adapter'. The test pins the module set {latest_conventions.py, latest_md_local_output_scope.py} and both sentences verbatim.", + "where": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:1408, 1434, 1541-1543; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:897-935; docs/paper.md:59-62" + }, + { + "item": "Re-run the publication check on the newest policyengine-us at release with latest_final plus payroll_mandatory_scope, and commit the sweep and log. latest_final_2170.csv has no payroll adapter, so the test that 'recomputes every scored reference' fails for the four outputs (observed). The engine_upgrade rule says that at publication PolicyBench checks the newest release gives the same values.", + "where": "reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/latest_final_2170.csv; tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:347-379" + }, + { + "item": "Scope two upgrade tests to outputs outside the new revision. The sweep-table test compares sweep_moves.csv reference/final values to the CSV (observed failure). The changed-reference test requires the outputs that differ from the 20260922c board to equal the engine_upgrade revision's 'changed' list.", + "where": "tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:94-108, 111-130" + }, + { + "item": "Add a test for the new revision, modeled on the 09-22 one. Check that the module is committed with sha 74200522..., that sweep_payroll_scope.csv moves exactly the four outputs, that the CSV holds the regenerated values, and that none of the four is excluded.", + "where": "tests/test_reference_audit.py:141-181 (pattern); reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv" + }, + { + "item": "Rewrite the four reference narratives (reference_value and explanation) as federal-only derivations. Add them to a REGENERATED_NARRATIVES-style table with required figures and test it.", + "where": "annotations/.../us_case_reference_explanations.csv; tests/test_reference_audit.py:404-438 (pattern)" + }, + { + "item": "Re-derive the audit rows. Delete the 82 annotations that become exact (032: 33, 043: 26, 081: 9, 082: 14). Annotate the 35 new misses: 032 deepseek-v4.1-flash, gpt-5.5, gpt-5.6-sol, gpt-6-astra, gpt-6.1-sol, kimi-k3; 043 sixteen models; 081 nine; 082 gpt-6-luna, gpt-6-sol, gpt-6.1-sol, kimi-k3. Set wrong_model_count from 40/30/37/42 to 13/20/37/32. Both auditUniverse.ts and paper_results.audit_selection_rule raise when the annotated rows differ from the legacy-threshold rows.", + "where": "annotations/.../us_audit_row_annotations.csv, us_case_notes.csv; app/src/lib/auditUniverse.ts; policybench/paper_results.py:1624-1630; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:717, 803 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Re-judge the four cases on the new reference and narrative with claude-opus-5-5, through scripts/run_audit_claude.sh as 20260922b did. Rewrite all four case notes from the new verdicts. Refresh judge_provenance: the dates change, and by_judge stays 298/116/260 only if Opus 5.5 judges. Add an adjudication only if a verdict comes back non-final or flagged.", + "where": "results/local//cases/us__scenario_0{32,43,81,82}__payroll_tax; tests/test_paper_results.py:303-311; tests/test_judge_provenance.py" + }, + { + "item": "Retire or re-scope the gpt61sol committed-reference pin test. It pins release 20260929's CSV sha e8bbba8f... and sidecar sha 816fef53... (observed failing).", + "where": "tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:400-418; scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py:133-150" + }, + { + "item": "Build a release driver that accepts the reference revision and incumbent drift. Every modelStats row moves by -0.69 to +0.69 points, and n stays 1,928. freeze_gpt61sol.py and finish_gpt61sol.py refuse both. finish_adds0928.py accepted only an engine_upgrade revision.", + "where": "scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py:201-209; scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py:226-245; scripts/finish_adds0928.py" + }, + { + "item": "Refreeze the payload, the analysis CSVs and the manifest, and update the pointers, data.versions.json and paperSnapshot.json. Uploading the release asset is Max's step.", + "where": "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json; app/src/data.artifact.json; app/src/data.versions.json; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:32-151, 1028, 1048 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Change the expand page's leader pin from 95.003 to 94.629 and the copy from '95.0%' to '94.6%'. With #191 the value is 95.192 and the copy '95.2%'.", + "where": "app/tests/expandPage.test.ts:73-83" + }, + { + "item": "Rescore the sensitivity evidence. Fable 5.1 auto goes from 91.728 to 92.416 and Fable 5 thinking from 91.521 to 92.209 (observed); n is unchanged. Copy the new autoExact values into servingSensitivity.ts.", + "where": "sensitivity/data/*.json; sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md; app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts:38-61; tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py:127,217,239" + }, + { + "item": "Revise the paper. Add the payroll adapter to the reference-construction paragraph ('an adapter restores that scope'). Fix the publication-check sentence 'gives the same value ... for all 1,984 outputs under the same conventions and adapter'. Add a reference-review table row. Then re-render and re-pin.", + "where": "paper/index.qmd:886-893, 1083; tests/test_disclosures.py:487-511 (observed failing)" + }, + { + "item": "Update the benchmark card's adapter and publication-check paragraph and its audit counts. The board grid on the leaderboard is 7,813 / 7,809 / 4 / 2,125.", + "where": "docs/benchmark_card.md:84-90, 105-109; docs/paper.md:59-62, 70-71" + }, + { + "item": "Leave the exclusion record and the adjudication count (69) unchanged, but note one inconsistency if #191 also lands. #191's 081 record treats the $805.01 MA PFML share as paid, while the regenerated payroll reference says it is not employee tax. Reword that record.", + "where": "git show 8af912a0:reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json" + } + ], + "pinned_counts": [ + { + "name": "Excluded outputs", + "now": "56", + "exclude": "60", + "exclude_with_salt": "63", + "regenerate": "56", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:327,328('56 outputs'),414; tests/test_reference_exclusions.py:156; tests/test_adjudications.py:231,298; tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:411; docs/benchmark_card.md:73,106,144; docs/paper.md:77; app/src/data.versions.json; sensitivity md:50 and data JSON 'fifty-six'" + }, + { + "name": "Unlisted-input exclusions", + "now": "28", + "exclude": "32", + "exclude_with_salt": "35", + "regenerate": "28", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:330; tests/test_reference_exclusions.py:158-160; tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:414; docs/benchmark_card.md:156; paper abstract via r (tests/test_disclosures.py:617-634)" + }, + { + "name": "Households with an exclusion", + "now": "39", + "exclude": "41 (+032, 043)", + "exclude_with_salt": "42 (+114)", + "regenerate": "39", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:329; docs/benchmark_card.md:144; unlisted-input households 22 -> 26/28 (paper_results.excluded_output_households_by_reason, unpinned)" + }, + { + "name": "Scored outputs per model", + "now": "1,928", + "exclude": "1,924", + "exclude_with_salt": "1,921", + "regenerate": "1,928", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:358,382; tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:360; tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:418; docs/benchmark_card.md:173; docs/paper.md:77; sensitivity md:50,59,89,150; sensitivity/data/*.json n; comment test_paper_results.py:80-81 (88,688 -> 88,504 / 88,366)" + }, + { + "name": "Exclusions decided on 2.15.17 (by engine)", + "now": "{1.755.4: 52, 2.15.17: 4}", + "exclude": "{52, 8}", + "exclude_with_salt": "{52, 11}", + "regenerate": "{52, 4}", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:411,413; docs/benchmark_card.md:73-74; app/src/data.versions.json; tests/test_disclosures.py:690,767 derive the sentence" + }, + { + "name": "Developer adjudications", + "now": "69", + "exclude": "73", + "exclude_with_salt": "76", + "regenerate": "69 (unless a re-judge needs one)", + "where": "tests/test_adjudications.py:221,276; docs/benchmark_card.md:122; manifest developer_adjudications.cases" + }, + { + "name": "Adjudications to prompt_ambiguity / judge llm_error", + "now": "28 / 59", + "exclude": "32 / 63", + "exclude_with_salt": "35 / 66", + "regenerate": "28 / 59", + "where": "tests/test_adjudications.py:222-224, 285-290" + }, + { + "name": "Audited rows (legacy-threshold universe)", + "now": "7,860", + "exclude": "7,711", + "exclude_with_salt": "7,573", + "regenerate": "7,813", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:87-88; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:651; tests/test_disclosures.py:268; app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts:22-23; docs/benchmark_card.md:105; docs/paper.md:70" + }, + { + "name": "Exact-match misses (= annotated misses)", + "now": "7,856", + "exclude": "7,707", + "exclude_with_salt": "7,569", + "regenerate": "7,809", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:90-93; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:652-653; tests/test_disclosures.py:270-271; app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts:24-25; docs/benchmark_card.md:108; docs/paper.md:71" + }, + { + "name": "Annotated exact hits", + "now": "4", + "exclude": "4", + "exclude_with_salt": "4", + "regenerate": "4", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:94-95 (unchanged)" + }, + { + "name": "Unannotated scored rows below full bounded score", + "now": "2,107", + "exclude": "2,072", + "exclude_with_salt": "2,072", + "regenerate": "2,125", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:96-97; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:656; tests/test_disclosures.py:273; app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts:27; docs/benchmark_card.md:109; docs/paper.md:71" + }, + { + "name": "Scored rows below full bounded score", + "now": "9,967", + "exclude": "9,783", + "exclude_with_salt": "9,645", + "regenerate": "9,938", + "where": "tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:655" + }, + { + "name": "Scored annotation sources llm_error / parse_contract_failure", + "now": "7,208 / 652", + "exclude": "7,063 / 648", + "exclude_with_salt": "6,928 / 645", + "regenerate": "7,161 / 652", + "where": "tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:658-660" + }, + { + "name": "Parse-contract failures (scored)", + "now": "652 (kimi-k2.6 390, glm-5.2 133, glm-5.3 71, kimi-k3 58)", + "exclude": "648 (kimi-k2.6 387, glm-5.2 132)", + "exclude_with_salt": "645 (kimi-k2.6 384, glm-5.2 132)", + "regenerate": "652", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:69-79 (pct stays 0.7)" + }, + { + "name": "Contract violations", + "now": "712", + "exclude": "708", + "exclude_with_salt": "705", + "regenerate": "712", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:110" + }, + { + "name": "Annotated rows on excluded outputs", + "now": "2,111", + "exclude": "2,260", + "exclude_with_salt": "2,398", + "regenerate": "2,111", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:361; docs/benchmark_card.md:106" + }, + { + "name": "prompt_ambiguity_row_count", + "now": "820", + "exclude": "965", + "exclude_with_salt": "1,100", + "regenerate": "820", + "where": "tests/test_paper_results.py:363" + }, + { + "name": "Never-parsed rows on excluded outputs", + "now": "55", + "exclude": "59", + "exclude_with_salt": "62", + "regenerate": "55", + "where": "docs/benchmark_card.md:175" + }, + { + "name": "Leader (GPT-6 Sol) weighted exact", + "now": "95.003", + "exclude": "95.093", + "exclude_with_salt": "95.749", + "regenerate": "94.629", + "where": "app/tests/expandPage.test.ts:74,81-83; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:1028 (bootstrap, via refreeze)" + }, + { + "name": "Always-zero exact / leader margin (paper @tbl-baselines)", + "now": "70.0 / 25.0", + "exclude": "70.5 / 24.6", + "exclude_with_salt": "71.0 / 24.7", + "regenerate": "70.0 / 24.6", + "where": "policybench/paper_results.py:870-936 (rendered, no test pin found)" + }, + { + "name": "Payroll exact across models (n)", + "now": "78.5% (4,554)", + "exclude": "81.0% (4,370)", + "exclude_with_salt": "81.0% (4,370)", + "regenerate": "79.5% (4,554)", + "where": "payload programStats; analysis/summary_by_variable.csv" + }, + { + "name": "Sensitivity auto exact: Fable 5.1 / Fable 5 thinking", + "now": "91.728 / 91.521", + "exclude": "92.349 / 92.129", + "exclude_with_salt": "not computed", + "regenerate": "92.416 / 92.209", + "where": "app/src/lib/servingSensitivity.ts:38,61; sensitivity/data/*.json; tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py:127,217" + }, + { + "name": "wrong_model_count on 032/043/081/082", + "now": "40/30/37/42", + "exclude": "40/30/37/42", + "exclude_with_salt": "40/30/37/42", + "regenerate": "13/20/37/32", + "where": "annotations/.../us_case_notes.csv; tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:803" + } + ], + "notes": [ + "Verdict: both options are installable, but neither is a records-only change. Either one needs a new release driver, a payload refreeze and changes to tests that pin release 20260929 or 20260930 bytes. Regenerate also needs a new publication-check sweep, four judge re-runs and a decision on how the sidecar records a revision after engine_upgrade.", + "How the numbers were produced: counts come from subclassing policybench.paper_results.PaperResults with the extra exclusion records and relabelled rows. The regenerate row sets come from scoring a scratch copy with the audit's own stage() and analyze(). The README's figures reproduce: always-zero 70.53 (exclude), 69.98 (regenerate), 71.03 (exclude with SALT); GPT-6 Sol 95.09 / 94.63 / 95.75.", + "Test-run evidence: the 'observed' tags come from scratch shared clones of 8714770 with the records installed mechanically: exclusions appended, adjudications applied, regenerate rows swapped. The payload was not refrozen and the prose was not edited. On the targeted files, the exclude clone gave 27 failed / 245 passed and the regenerate clone 27 failed / 245 passed. On the unmodified clone, the same record and snapshot test files passed in an earlier partial run. The exclude-with-SALT run was stopped at 52%, with the same failures as exclude up to that point. Payload-derived pins (test_disclosures.py:264-274 and 487-511, app auditUniverse) pass on the exclude clone only because nothing was refrozen; they will need the values above after the refreeze.", + "Regenerate together with #191: excluded 59, households 40, scored 1,925, adjudications 72, audited rows 7,675, misses 7,671, unannotated below full 2,125, below full bounded 9,800, llm_error/parse 7,026/649, GPT-6 Sol 95.192, always-zero 70.4.", + "#191's own checklist (8af912a0 README) misses several things a combined release hits: parse failures fall 652 -> 649 (kimi-k2.6 390 -> 387), contract violations 712 -> 709, and the scored-source counts in tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:658-660 change. It also misses tests/test_adjudications.py:639 and the wave logic at 709-784, the exclusion-list tail order at tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:221-223, and tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:400-418. Its judged_on_utc for 022, 081 and 114 must be 2026-09-30 from the published tree, not 2026-09-23 from unified_audit.", + "proposed_regenerations.json says to apply the adapter together with latest_final on policyengine-us 2.15.17. The engine rule in the sidecar says references come from the newest release when the sweep begins, and that the newest release is checked at publication. A regenerate release in October has to either re-sweep on the newest release or state why 2.15.17 stands.", + "There is no release_facts file in the repo at this commit.", + "Test environment: lstat on the system TMPDIR (/private/var/folders/.../T) hung on this machine and stalled pytest in uninterruptible state, so the runs used TMPDIR and --basetemp inside the scratch directory. No checkout file was modified. Scratch is under the review/release-checklist/ scratchpad: counts.json, regen_rows.json, *_targeted2.txt and the clones in x/." + ] + }, + "claim_audit": { + "claims_checked": 131, + "problems": [ + { + "readme_text": "no benchmark household lives in Delaware, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont or Washington.", + "problem": "Two benchmark households live in Washington: scenario_002 and scenario_111, both WA with $0 employment income (scenarios.csv; payroll_decomposition.csv state column). program_classification.json repeats the error (\"No benchmark household lives in these states\").", + "correct": "No household with wages lives in Delaware, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont or Washington. Two Washington households (scenario_002, scenario_111) have no wages, and none lives in DE, ME, OR, RI or VT.", + "severity": "error" + }, + { + "readme_text": "It would take credit from 35 answers that include the program at exactly the engine's amount. (also in the Recommendation bullet)", + "problem": "The 35 answers are those within the $1 exact tolerance of the frozen reference. Only 15 equal it to the cent: MN 2,346.10 x6, MA 14,192.66 x6, NY 8,108.03 x3. The other 20 do not: CO 331.13 x9 (implied state part $18.39 against the engine's $17.99), CO 330.72 x7, MA 14,193 x3, NY 8,107.98 x1. No CO answer equals 330.73.", + "correct": "It would take credit from 35 answers that include the program and score as exact (within $1) against the frozen reference. 15 of them match it to the cent.", + "severity": "error" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Claude Fable 5.1 and Ox Alpha leave out every state program, mandatory ones included.", + "problem": "Ox Alpha includes California SDI on scenario_022 (answer 4,658; explanations.json quote \"plus mandatory California employee SDI at 1.2% = $632\") and on scenario_023 (answer 1,544; \"mandatory CA employee SDI 1.2% x $17,443 = $209\"). Both are categorized included_state_component. It also answers 31,084 on scenario_005, which is not the federal-only amount. Only Claude Fable 5.1 answers federal-only on all 11 scored outputs.", + "correct": "Claude Fable 5.1 leaves out every state program, mandatory ones included. Ox Alpha leaves out the four optional programs and PA, CT and CA SDI on scenario_099, but includes CA SDI at the 2025 rate of 1.2% on scenario_022 and scenario_023.", + "severity": "error" + }, + { + "readme_text": "policyengine-us has no input for the employer's deduction choice, employer size (except Massachusetts' employer side) or a private plan.", + "problem": "policyengine-us 2.15.17 has an employer-size input, employer_headcount (variables/input/employer_payroll.py, Person, default 100). It is read by co_employer_famli_contribution, ma_employer_paid_leave_contribution, me_employer_paid_leave_contribution, or_employer_paid_leave_contribution, wa_employer_paid_leave_contribution, employer_total_additional_state_payroll_tax and the NY MCTMT payroll-expense proxy. It also feeds de_paid_leave_contribution_rate, which sets Delaware's employee contribution.", + "correct": "policyengine-us has an employer_headcount input. It drives the employer side in CO, MA, ME, OR and WA, and Delaware's contribution rate. It reaches none of the four benchmark employee shares (MN, CO, MA, NY). There is no input for the employer's deduction choice or for a private plan.", + "severity": "error" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Its records alone reproduce #191's figures here (GPT-6 Sol 95.62%; Claude Sonnet 5.5 passes GPT-6 Luna).", + "problem": "The reproduction holds: this audit's salt CSV equals #191's leaderboard_impact_models.csv to 0.0 on all 29 shared columns. The printed figure is mis-rounded, though. GPT-6 Sol's exact_proposed is 95.6146 in both files, which rounds to 95.61. The 95.62 comes from #191's README line 95, which carries the same rounding error.", + "correct": "GPT-6 Sol 95.61% (95.6146)", + "severity": "error" + }, + { + "readme_text": "22 of 46 models included the Massachusetts and New York contributions.", + "problem": "This reads as one set of 22 models that included both. In explanations.json, 22 models include MA and a different 22 include NY. 17 include both and 27 include at least one. MA only: gemini-3.5-flash-lite, gpt-5.6-sol, gpt-5.6-terra, grok-4.5, grok-4.7. NY only: claude-haiku-4.5, claude-opus-4.7, claude-sonnet-5, gemini-3.6-flash, gpt-6-luna.", + "correct": "22 of 46 models included the Massachusetts contribution and 22 the New York one (17 included both).", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Under each state's law the premium is the employer's, and the employee pays only what the employer chooses to deduct, from zero up to a cap (16 of 16 independent reviews agree).", + "problem": "Only 8 of the 16 reviews concern MN, CO, MA and NY. The other 8 reviewed CA, CT, PA and NJ and agreed those are mandatory. law_research.json has two verdicts for each of the 8 programs, all refuted=false.", + "correct": "(8 of 8 independent reviews of these four programs agree; none of the 16 reviews refuted any classification)", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Exclusion is the symmetric remedy and moves the board least.", + "problem": "This holds for rank swaps only: 5 headline pairs against 10, and 9 within-1% rank changes against 22. On levels exclusion moves the board more. Mean headline delta is +0.437 for exclusion against +0.169 for regeneration, and mean absolute delta is 0.439 against 0.325. Exclusion moves 4 bounded-score ranks against 2, and moves the always-zero baseline 69.98 to 70.53 while regeneration leaves it unchanged. GPT-6 Sol's lead over always-zero shrinks more under exclusion (24.57) than under regeneration (24.65).", + "correct": "Exclusion swaps fewer headline ranks (5 adjacent pairs against 10) and keeps the within-1% leader, though it shifts rates and the always-zero baseline more than regeneration does.", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Where the law requires the employee contribution, the explanations look the same (mandatory programs, all scored):", + "problem": "Only the PA and CT rows resemble the optional programs. On the four CA SDI outputs, 29 to 31 of 46 models include the program and only 10 to 13 say there is no tax or never mention it. On MN the figures are 7 include and 35 no-tax-or-silent; on CO, 18 and 25.", + "correct": "On Pennsylvania's and Connecticut's mandatory contributions the explanations look the same. California SDI is included far more often (29 to 31 of 46).", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Nothing else in the engine reads these contributions except through `employee_payroll_tax`, which also feeds `spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings` and `household_tax_before_refundable_credits`.", + "problem": "The list of what employee_payroll_tax feeds is incomplete. It is also an Alabama itemized-deduction source (parameters/gov/states/al/tax/income/deductions/itemized/sources.yaml), and it is read by fica_marginal_tax_rate and taxsim_tfica. One contribution is also read directly: ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution appears in the Santa Clara County General Assistance earned-income deductions (parameters/gov/local/ca/scc/general_assistance/countable_income/earned_deductions/person_sources.yaml). The five optional contributions are read only by their state aggregates. No benchmark output moves through these paths: the sweep confirms this for the optional five.", + "correct": "The four optional contributions are read only through their state aggregates and employee_payroll_tax. employee_payroll_tax also feeds spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings, household_tax_before_refundable_credits, Alabama's itemized deductions, fica_marginal_tax_rate and taxsim_tfica. California SDI also feeds Santa Clara County General Assistance.", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Every 2026 rate, share and cap above was published before the 2026-07-03 reference freeze, and each engine amount equals the law's largest employee share to the cent.", + "problem": "For CT, the law amount is 0.005 x 165,597 = $827.985, which law_research.json shows as $827.99. The engine returns 827.98498 (float32), which shows as $827.98. For MA, the README's own bullet says Acts 2026 c. 101 s. 45 could put the 2026 maximum at $1,351.02. The claim needs both qualifications.", + "correct": "each engine amount equals the law's largest employee share within a cent (CT: engine $827.98, law $827.985), with the MA maximum subject to the Acts 2026 c. 101 question below", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "The two reviewers read its scope differently, and its s. 45 applies it to taxable years beginning on or after 2026-01-01 ... If it reached 2026, the most a large employer could deduct for scenario_081 would be $1,351.02 (0.772%) rather than $805.01.", + "problem": "$1,351.02 holds only under the administration reviewer's reading, in which ss. 25-26 amend s. 6(c), (d) and (e). The statute reviewer reads both sections as amending only \"line 33\", which is s. 6(d), the remittance rule for small employers. On that reading the large-employer deduction cap in s. 6(c) stays at 0.46% ($805.01) even for 2026.", + "correct": "Under the administration reviewer's reading (ss. 25-26 amend s. 6(c)), the 2026 large-employer maximum would be $1,351.02 (0.772%). Under the statute reviewer's reading (only s. 6(d)), it stays $805.01.", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "The four proposed references have had these values since the first run (2026-06-15).", + "problem": "2026-06-15 is the date of the commit that added the run (e4563713). The run's reference sidecar at that commit records generated_at_utc 2026-06-12T05:15:20Z, which matches the run name us_full_run_20260612. The values have been unchanged since that commit.", + "correct": "since the first run (references generated 2026-06-12, committed 2026-06-15 in e4563713)", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "| NY PFL and DBL | Covered employer provides the coverage and pays its cost beyond what it collects | ... | [N.Y. WCL s. 209](...)(3)-(4), s. 210(1) |", + "problem": "The s. 210(1) text in law_research.json says the employer contributes \"the cost of providing disability benefits in excess of the contributions collected\". It covers DBL only. For PFL, s. 209(3)(b) says \"No employer shall be required to fund any portion of the family leave benefit.\" The NY bullet under points that cut the other way leaves out further sources: the DFS 2026 decision (\"Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision\") and the WCB press release (\"fully paid for by employees\"). Both are recorded in law_research.json.", + "correct": "Covered employer provides the coverage and pays the DBL cost beyond what it collects (s. 210(1)); for PFL no employer is required to fund any portion (s. 209(3)(b)), but it may", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Four scored references count an employee share of a state paid-leave premium that the law lets the employer deduct but does not require.", + "problem": "scenario_082 also counts the New York Disability Benefits (DBL) contribution of $31.20, which is a disability program and not a paid-leave premium. The adapter drops five contributions, ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution among them.", + "correct": "an employee share of a state paid-leave or disability premium", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "| MN Paid Leave | Premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer\"; employer pays at least 50% |", + "problem": "The 50% floor in subd. 3 applies to large employers only. For small employers (subd. 5a), the total is 0.66% and the employer minimum is 0.22% of wages, one-third of the premium. The maximum employee share is still 0.44% (law_research.json rate_2026).", + "correct": "employer pays at least 50% (small employers: at least 0.22% of a 0.66% premium); employee share at most 0.44% either way", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "But the same laws speak of the employee share in mandatory terms: ... and Massachusetts tells employers they \"must withhold PFML contributions\".", + "problem": "The Massachusetts quote is not from the law. It comes from the DFML rates-page overview, an agency web page (law_research.json MA verdicts[0].evidence[12]). The README's own MA bullet attributes it correctly.", + "correct": "and Massachusetts's Department of Family and Medical Leave tells employers they \"must withhold PFML contributions\"", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "scenario_032's and scenario_043's count the optional-deduction reasoning as a model error.", + "problem": "scenario_032's case note does say \"the paid-leave deduction is optional\". scenario_043's says models \"either said Colorado has no employee payroll tax or dropped FAMLI on purpose\" and never mentions optional deduction. explanations.json records 0 of 46 CO answers giving the optional or employer-paid reason.", + "correct": "scenario_032's counts the optional-deduction reasoning as a model error, and scenario_043's counts dropping FAMLI \"on purpose\" as one", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "Model by model, the readings split by family.", + "problem": "Only partly supported. The Claude family matches the frozen reference on 1 of 40 optional answers (Sonnet 5.5, once). The GPT family matches on 19 of 40, but GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.4 Mini and GPT-5.4 Nano match on none. The four models the README names as federal-only on all four include Ox Alpha and Gemini 3.8 Flash, which are not Claude models.", + "correct": "Claude models almost never answer the frozen reference (1 of 40 answers); the newer GPT models mostly do (GPT-6.1 Sol 4 of 4; GPT-6 Sol, GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.6 Sol 3 of 4).", + "severity": "imprecise" + }, + { + "readme_text": "`CountryTaxBenefitSystem` applies a reform twice to the same system, so the adapter is idempotent.", + "problem": "The premise is true: policyengine_us/system.py calls apply_reform_set at lines 136 and 153, and a probe reform was applied 2 times. But the sentence states the consequence backwards. Applying the reform twice does not make the adapter idempotent. The adapter was written to be idempotent because the reform is applied twice: its second pass returns early.", + "correct": "`CountryTaxBenefitSystem` applies a reform twice to the same system, so the adapter is written to be idempotent (its second pass leaves the already-flattened list unchanged).", + "severity": "style" + }, + { + "readme_text": "These files hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, as installed in the reference venv, plus `latest_final`, the system that built the published references.", + "problem": "\"These files hold\" does not parse. The bullets that follow describe engine facts, not files.", + "correct": "These facts hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, as installed in the reference venv, plus `latest_final`, the system that built the published references.", + "severity": "style" + } + ] + } +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/law_research.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/law_research.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..623fa33a --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/law_research.json @@ -0,0 +1,4794 @@ +{ + "date": "2026-10-05", + "method": "Claude Code workflow wf_cecd10dd-abe: one researcher per program, then two independent reviewers per program (statute lens, administration lens), each trying to refute the classification. Agents used WebFetch and WebSearch and read the installed policyengine-us 2.15.17 source.", + "programs": [ + { + "key": "MN", + "research": { + "program": "Minnesota Paid Leave (family and medical benefit insurance premiums, Minn. Stat. ch. 268B)", + "state": "MN", + "engine_variables": [ + "mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages", + "mn_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "employee_state_payroll_tax (aggregator)", + "parameter gov.states.mn.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate", + "parameter gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer owes the premium. Under 268B.14 subd. 1, premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer,\" and each employer pays them to the state every quarter. The commissioner assesses the premium against the employer's premium account (268B.13). Under Minn. R. 3317.5000 subp. 5, the employer \"remains liable to the commissioner for premiums.\" If the employer fails to pay, the employee keeps the right to benefits (268B.14 subd. 9). Employees have no direct liability to the state. Their part is a \"charge back\": the employer may deduct it from wages (268B.14 subd. 3).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 1(a) (2025 Minnesota Statutes)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "Family and medical leave premiums accrue and become payable by each employer, except for an employer with an approved private plan under section 268B.10, for each calendar year on the taxable wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 3 (Employee charge back; as amended by Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 38, eff. 2026-01-01)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "employers must pay a minimum of 50 percent of the annual premiums paid under this section. Employees, through a deduction in their wages to the employer, must pay the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 3 (minimum-wage floor on deductions)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "Deductions under this section must not cause an employee's wage, after the deduction, to fall below the rate required to be paid to the employee by any applicable statute, regulation, rule, ordinance, or government resolution or policy", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 5a(b)(1) (small employer rate)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "employers must pay a minimum of 25 percent of the rate calculated in subdivisions 6 and 7. Employers shall not deduct from any employees' pay to fund the employer portion of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 5a(b)(2) (small employer rate)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "employees must pay the remaining portion due under this subdivision, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer. The employer must make wage deductions as necessary under this subdivision to fund the employee portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 4 (wages subject to premium)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The maximum wages subject to premium in a calendar year is equal to the maximum earnings in that year subject to the FICA Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance tax.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.01, subd. 43 (taxable wages)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.01", + "quote": "equal to the maximum earnings in that year subject to the FICA Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance tax rounded to the nearest $1,000.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 6 (statutory employer premium rate)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The employer premium rates beginning January 1, 2026, shall be as follows: (1) for an employer participating in both family and medical benefit programs, 0.7 percent;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.14, subd. 7 (commissioner's rate adjustment authority; the source of the 0.88% rate)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The commissioner may adjust the annual premium rates pursuant to this section prior to January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.10, subd. 2(5) (private plan: cap on employee cost; same clause appears for the family-benefit private plan)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.10", + "quote": "no greater amount is required to be paid by employees toward the cost of benefits under the employer plan than by this chapter", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.26(b)(2) (employer notice to each employee)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "(2) the amount of premium deductions made by the employer under this chapter;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. Stat. 268B.27, subd. 2(3) (collective bargaining construction)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "limit the parties to a collective bargaining agreement from bargaining and agreeing with respect to leave benefits and related policies and employee protections that meet or exceed, and do not otherwise conflict with, the minimum standards", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Minn. R. 3317.5000, subp. 5 (DEED Paid Leave rules)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/rules/3317/full", + "quote": "An employer remains liable to the commissioner for premiums on wages paid until the effective date of the approved private plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Laws 2024, ch. 127, art. 73, sec. 38 (amendment to 268B.14 subd. 3 adding 'and subject to subdivision 6', effective January 1, 2026)", + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/laws/2024/0/127/", + "quote": "Notwithstanding section 177.24, subdivision 4, or 181.06, subdivision 1, and subject to subdivision 6, employers must pay a minimum of 50 percent of the annual premiums paid under this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "SSA, Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026, Federal Register 2025-19763 (published 2025-11-03)", + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "quote": "Employers can deduct up to 0.44% of wages from employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "quote": "small employers can deduct up to 0.44% of wages from employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "quote": "Employers may choose to pay more than their required portion", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "quote": "in 2026, the premium rate will be .88%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-union-workers-presentation_tcm1045-711054.pdf", + "quote": "Employers can cover more than 0.44% if they chose.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-union-workers-presentation_tcm1045-711054.pdf", + "quote": "cannot be charged more than you would be under the state plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-in-person-employers_tcm1045-706805.pdf", + "quote": "Action 1: Decide how to split premiums.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MNDEED/bulletins/3d3828d", + "quote": "the premium rate will be 0.88 percent", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Yes. Minn. Stat. 268B.14 subd. 3 sets only a floor on the employer's part: \"a minimum of 50 percent.\" Employees pay \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer,\" so an employer that pays 100% leaves the employee nothing to pay. For small employers, subd. 5a(b) works the same way, with an employer minimum of 25% of the full rate. DEED says this explicitly in a presentation it gave the Senate Jobs committee on 2025-04-02 (archived by the Legislative Reference Library): \"Employers may choose to pay more than their required portion for some or all employees.\" Its October 2025 union-worker deck says the same (\"Employers can cover more than 0.44% if they chose\"). DEED's September 2025 employer deck tells employers to \"Decide how to split premiums.\" Under 268B.26(b)(2), each employer must tell its employees the amount of premium deductions it makes, which confirms that the amount differs from employer to employer.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.88% of taxable wages (medical 0.61% + family 0.27%). DEED's commissioner set this under 268B.14 subd. 7 ('may adjust the annual premium rates ... prior to January 1, 2026'); it replaces the statutory 0.7% in subd. 6. Small employers (30 or fewer employees and an average wage at or below 150% of the statewide average) pay 75% of that rate, 0.66%, under subd. 5a.", + "max_employee_share": "0.44% of taxable wages: the 0.88% total minus the employer's minimum 50% (subd. 3). For small employers it is also 0.44%: the 0.66% total minus the employer's minimum of 25% x 0.88% = 0.22% (subd. 5a(b)). DEED confirms 'small employers can deduct up to 0.44%'. The minimum employee share is 0%, because the employer may pay everything. Under an approved private plan, employees cannot be charged more than they would pay under the state plan (268B.10 subd. 2(5)).", + "wage_base_or_cap": "About $185,000 for 2026. 268B.01 subd. 43 sets taxable wages up to the Social Security OASDI maximum rounded to the nearest $1,000. SSA's 2026 base is $184,500 (Federal Register, 2025-11-03), and DEED's December 2025 document states the cap as $185,000. 268B.14 subd. 4 states the cap without the rounding, so it would read $184,500. The cap does not bind for any benchmark household under about $184,500.", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "published": "2025 Minnesota Statutes edition, published electronically 10/19/2025. Subd. 3 (50% employer minimum) enacted by Laws 2023 c 59 and amended by Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 38. Subd. 5a added by Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 39. Subd. 7 amended by Laws 2024 c 127 and 1Sp2025 c 6 art 4 s 27. The revisor's Table 2 shows no 2026 Regular Session amendments anywhere in ch. 268B." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.01", + "published": "2025 Minnesota Statutes. Subd. 43 (taxable wages, rounded to the nearest $1,000) from Laws 2023 c 59 and 2024 c 127." + }, + { + "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MNDEED/bulletins/3d3828d", + "published": "DEED bulletin announcing the 0.88% rate. The page has no dateline. The matching DEED press release (mn.gov/deed/newscenter/press-releases/?id=1045-670064) could not be read because of a bot challenge. KSTP's article on the announcement carries datePublished 2025-02-21 in its metadata (a secondary source, used only for the date)." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "published": "DEED presentation for the 2025-04-02 Senate Jobs hearing (PDF created 2025-04-01). States the 0.88% rate, the 0.61%/0.27% split, the deduction of up to 50%, and that employers may pay more." + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "published": "DEED, PDF created and modified 2025-12-19. States 0.88% for most employers, 0.66% for small employers, the deduction of up to 0.44% for both, and the $185,000 rounded cap." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "published": "2025-11-03 (SSA 2026 OASDI contribution and benefit base, $184,500)." + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The statutory split rule (the 50% employer minimum and the employee charge-back) dates from 2023-2024 session laws, published in the 2025 Statutes on 2025-10-19. DEED announced the 0.88% rate around 2025-02-21 and restated it in dated DEED documents from 2025-04-01, 2025-09-12, 2025-10-28 and 2025-12-19. The 2026 OASDI base was published 2025-11-03. No 2026 session change to ch. 268B appears in the revisor's Table 2." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_032", + "engine_amount": 127.6, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 127.6, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Wages are $29,000, below the cap of about $185,000, so taxable wages are $29,000. Large employer: total premium 0.88% x 29,000 = $255.20; employer minimum 50% = $127.60; maximum employee share 0.44% x 29,000 = $127.60. Small employer: total 0.66% x 29,000 = $191.40; employer minimum 0.22% x 29,000 = $63.80; maximum employee share 191.40 - 63.80 = $127.60. Engine: 0.0044 x 29,000 = $127.60. I ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 this session and it returned mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution = 127.6 and employee_state_payroll_tax = 127.6. The difference from the legal maximum is $0.00. The legal minimum employee share is $0, if the employer elects to pay the whole premium, so the legally possible range for this household is $0 to $127.60. The deduction may also not push pay below the applicable minimum wage; at $29,000 that would bind only at extreme hours, and the prompt gives no hours." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "Read this session in policyengine_us 2.15.17. In variables/gov/states/mn/tax/payroll/paid_leave/mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py, the label is \"Minnesota employee paid leave contribution\", and the documentation reads \"Employee-side Minnesota Paid Leave contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.\" Its formula is the employee_rate parameter times mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages, defined_for StateCode.MN. In mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages.py, the documentation reads \"Minnesota Paid Leave covered wages capped at the Social Security contribution and benefit base, rounded to the nearest $1,000.\" The reference is revisor 268B.01, and the formula is min(max(0, employment_income), 1000*floor(ss_cap/1000 + 0.5)). The parameter parameters/gov/states/mn/tax/payroll/paid_leave/employee_rate.yaml is described as \"Employee-side Minnesota Paid Leave contribution rate\". Its values are 0 from 0000-01-01 and 0.0044 from 2026-01-01. It cites the DEED press release id=1045-670064 and Minn. Stat. 268B.14. In mn_employee_state_payroll_tax.py, the documentation reads \"Employee-side Minnesota Paid Leave contributions.\" It adds mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution. The aggregator employee_state_payroll_tax includes mn_employee_state_payroll_tax, and its documentation reads \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.\" The parameter gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap is 184,500 for 2026, commented \"Official SSA determination.\" The engine has no input for the employer's chosen split, small-employer status, a private plan, or the minimum-wage floor on deductions. It always applies the 0.44% maximum.", + "caveats": [ + "The aggregator's documentation calls its components 'mandatory' employee payroll taxes. For Minnesota, the component is the largest deduction the law permits, not a mandatory amount. Under a strict reading of the benchmark's 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes', the mandatory Minnesota employee amount is $0, and $127.60 is the legal upper bound.", + "The statute's wording is mixed. Subd. 3 says employees 'must pay the remaining portion, if any', and subd. 5a(b)(2) says the employer 'must make wage deductions as necessary'. But the size of that remainder is set by how much the employer chooses to pay above its minimum. DEED reads it as optional: 'Employers can deduct up to 0.44%' and 'may choose to pay more'.", + "Small employers (30 or fewer employees and an average wage at or below 150% of the statewide average; DEED's 2026 quarterly threshold is $27,745.88) pay 0.66% in total. The maximum employee share is still 0.44%, so employer size does not change the engine's maximum. It changes only the employer's minimum, from 0.44% to 0.22%.", + "Approved private (equivalent) plans under 268B.10: the employer pays no state premium for the program the plan covers. Employees cannot be charged more than under the state plan (at most 0.44% in 2026), and the employer may charge less or nothing. Employers with a private plan for only one program pay the state premium for the other program. Per the statute's structure and DEED's 0.61%/0.27% split, that makes the employee maximum 0.305% (medical) or 0.135% (family). The engine does not model this.", + "Collective bargaining: 268B.27 subd. 2(3) lets bargaining parties agree to benefits that meet or exceed the chapter. Nothing in ch. 268B fixes the employee share for union workers, so a CBA can allocate the 0-0.44% employee share, including employer-paid. The construction-industry CBA waivers (268B.09) cover job protections and health-insurance continuation, not premiums.", + "Not covered: 268B.01 subd. 17 excludes federal employees, self-employed people, independent contractors and seasonal employees as defined there. Self-employed people may opt in under 268B.11, which is a separate premium base.", + "Under subd. 3, deductions may not push an employee's wage below the applicable minimum wage. The prompt gives no hours, but at $29,000 a year this would bind only at implausible hours.", + "Rate provenance: 268B.14 subd. 6 still says 0.7%. The 0.88% comes from the commissioner's adjustment under subd. 7, as DEED announced it. I could not read DEED's own press release page or pl.mn.gov (bot challenge or HTTP 403). The announcement date of about 2025-02-21 rests on KSTP's metadata, corroborated by the dated DEED legislative presentation of 2025-04-01. I did not check whether the rate was also published in the State Register.", + "Wage cap: 268B.14 subd. 4 says the OASDI maximum ($184,500), while 268B.01 subd. 43 and DEED say it is rounded to the nearest $1,000 ($185,000). The engine uses $185,000. This is immaterial for the $29,000 household.", + "The 2027 rate (reported as unchanged at 0.88%) was set under subd. 7 by July 31, 2026. It is not relevant to tax year 2026, and I did not read its primary page (pl.mn.gov returned 403)." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Minnesota Paid Leave premiums are owed by the employer (Minn. Stat. 268B.14 subd. 1: premiums 'accrue and become payable by each employer'; Minn. R. 3317.5000 subp. 5). The employee part is a statutory 'employee charge back' (subd. 3). The employer must pay at least 50% of the premium (at least 25% of the full rate for small employers under subd. 5a), and employees pay through wage deductions only 'the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer.' The employer may choose to pay more, up to the whole premium, so the employee share runs from 0% to 0.44% of wages. DEED's guidance says the same: employers 'can deduct up to 0.44%' and 'may choose to pay more than their required portion'. Each employer must tell employees how much it deducts (268B.26(b)(2)), and private plans cannot charge employees more than the state plan would (268B.10). For 2026 the total rate is 0.88%, set by the DEED commissioner under subd. 7 and announced around 2025-02-21; small employers pay 0.66%. The maximum employee share is 0.44% for both sizes, on wages up to the Social Security base rounded to the nearest $1,000 (about $185,000). All of this was published well before 2026-07-03, and the revisor shows no 2026 change to ch. 268B. The engine applies 0.44% unconditionally, and documents that it assumes 'the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.' For scenario_032, 0.0044 x $29,000 = $127.60, which equals the legal maximum exactly; I confirmed the figure by running the engine. That amount is an upper bound, not a mandatory one; the legal floor is $0. Classification: optional employer pass-through." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "Family and medical leave premiums accrue and become payable by each employer, except for an employer with an approved private plan under section 268B.10, for each calendar year on the taxable wages that the employer paid to employees in covered employment.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "employers must pay a minimum of 50 percent of the annual premiums paid under this section. Employees, through a deduction in their wages to the employer, must pay the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "(2) employees must pay the remaining portion due under this subdivision, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer. The employer must make wage deductions as necessary under this subdivision to fund the employee portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The failure of an employer to pay premiums does not impact the right of an employee to benefits, or any other right, under this chapter.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "The commissioner must maintain a premium account for each employer. The commissioner must assess the premium account for all the premiums due under section 268B.14", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "the employer must determine the amount of any overpayment attributable to a deduction from employee wages under section 268B.14, subdivision 3, and return any amount erroneously deducted to each affected employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "(2) the amount of premium deductions made by the employer under this chapter;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.10", + "quote": "(5) no greater amount is required to be paid by employees toward the cost of benefits under the employer plan than by this chapter;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.01", + "quote": "equal to the maximum earnings in that year subject to the FICA Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance tax rounded to the nearest $1,000.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/rules/3317/full", + "quote": "An employer remains liable to the commissioner for premiums on wages paid until the effective date of the approved private plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/laws/2024/0/127/", + "quote": "Notwithstanding section 177.24, subdivision 4, or 181.06, subdivision 1, and subject to subdivision 6, employers must pay a minimum of 50 percent of the annual premiums paid under this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/177.27", + "quote": "268B.09, subdivisions 1 to 6, and 268B.14, subdivision 3, with any rule promulgated under section 177.28", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/table2?search_term=268B&year=2026&page_size=2000", + "quote": "Chapter 268B Actions during the 2026 Regular Session ... No Records Found", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14/versions", + "quote": "10/19/2025 * 2025", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "quote": "Employers can deduct up to 0.44% of wages from employees for their portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "quote": "small employers can deduct up to 0.44% of wages from employees for their portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "quote": "Employers may choose to pay more than their required portion for some or all employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "quote": "in 2026, the premium rate will be .88%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-in-person-employers_tcm1045-706805.pdf", + "quote": "If an employer pays more than the minimum share of the premium, they can deduct this additional contribution as an ordinary and necessary business expense.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-in-person-employers_tcm1045-706805.pdf", + "quote": "Action 1: Decide how to split premiums.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-union-workers-presentation_tcm1045-711054.pdf", + "quote": "Employers can cover more than 0.44% if they chose.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-union-workers-presentation_tcm1045-711054.pdf", + "quote": "You cannot be charged more than you would be under the state plan (up to 0.44% of your wages in 2026).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MNDEED/bulletins/3d3828d", + "quote": "Employers may deduct the employee portion of Paid Leave premiums from paychecks starting January 1, 2026, when benefits become available.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None that change the scenario_032 amount. I re-ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 from the triage venv for a single MN earner with $29,000 wages in 2026. It returned mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages = 29000, mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution = 127.6 and employee_state_payroll_tax = 127.6, which equals 0.0044 x 29,000, the statutory maximum employee share. The legal floor is $0, because the employer may pay the whole premium.", + "The 0.88% total rate is not in statute: 268B.14 subd. 6 still reads 0.7%, which would cap the employee share at 0.35%. 0.88% rests on the commissioner's subd. 7 adjustment authority ('may adjust ... prior to January 1, 2026'). I found it only in DEED materials: the undated govdelivery bulletin, the Senate deck (PDF created 2025-04-01), the employer deck (created 2025-09-12), the union deck (created 2025-10-28) and the small-employer PDF (created 2025-12-19). I did not find a State Register notice. All of these predate 2026-07-03.", + "Wage cap: 268B.14 subd. 4 ties the cap to the unrounded OASDI maximum ($184,500 for 2026), while 268B.01 subd. 43 and DEED round it to $185,000. The engine uses the rounded $185,000. This is immaterial below about $184,500 of wages, so it does not affect scenario_032.", + "Small employers: subd. 5a sets 75% of the 0.88% rate (0.66%) with an employer minimum of 25% of the full rate (0.22%), so the maximum employee share is again 0.44%. The engine's maximum does not depend on employer size, but the employer can still elect to pay more." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "No quote in the research was found to be wrong. I checked every operative_text and agency_guidance quote verbatim against the fetched source. Several span line breaks or alt-text in the PDFs, but the words match.", + "The Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 38 quote appears in the session law only as original text plus the inserted words 'and subject to subdivision 6,' marked as new text. The rendered combined text matches the research verbatim.", + "The engine parameter cites DEED press release mn.gov/deed/newscenter/press-releases/?id=1045-670064. I could not read it: curl hit a Radware captcha and WebFetch got only the headline. I did not bypass the challenge. The govdelivery bulletin has no dateline. So the announcement date of about 2025-02-21 (from KSTP metadata) remains unconfirmed by a primary source. The earliest dated primary document I read that states 0.88% is the LRL-archived Senate deck (PDF created 2025-04-01).", + "The research's 'Table 2 shows no 2026 amendments' claim is correct, but only with the right query. revisor.mn.gov/statutes/table2?full=268B returns 'No Records Found' even for all years, so that form is useless. The working query is ?search_term=268B&year=2026. It returns no records for 268B, 268B.14, 268B.01 or 268B.10, while the 2026 table is populated for other chapters (e.g. 290, 268, 181)." + ], + "reasoning": "Statute lens. I fetched the full 268B.14 section, the full ch. 268B text, 268B.01, 268B.10, Minn. R. ch. 3317, Laws 2024 c 127, and 177.27. I also searched the whole chapter for deduct, withhold, charge, contribut, 'employee shall/must' and liability language.\n\n1. Liability for the premium is entirely the employer's. Under 268B.14 subd. 1(a), premiums are 'payable by each employer', and each employer pays them quarterly. Under 268B.13, the commissioner assesses each employer's premium account. Under subd. 9, an employer's nonpayment does not affect the employee's rights. Under 268B.15 subd. 7(d), an employer that receives a refund must return any 'erroneously deducted' amounts to employees. Minn. R. 3317.5000 subp. 5 says the employer 'remains liable to the commissioner for premiums'. Nothing in ch. 268B makes the employee liable to the state, and the state has no collection path against employees for premiums.\n\n2. The only employee-share text is the 'Employee charge back' in subd. 3 and the parallel subd. 5a(b)(2). Both use 'must' language: employees 'must pay the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer', and the employer 'must make wage deductions as necessary'. This is the strongest argument for refutation. But the size of the remainder is set by the employer's own election above a floor: 'a minimum of 50 percent' (25% of the full rate for small employers). 'If any' expressly contemplates a zero remainder. So the 'must' only stops an employer from deducting more than the remainder, or from taking the employer's own portion out of pay (subd. 5a(b)(1): 'Employers shall not deduct ... to fund the employer portion'). It does not require any positive employee amount.\n\n3. The surrounding provisions support this reading:\n- 268B.26(b)(2) requires employers to tell employees 'the amount of premium deductions made by the employer', so the amount varies by employer.\n- 268B.10 subd. 2(5) and 3(5) only cap what private-plan employees can be charged.\n- 177.27 subd. 4 lets DLI order compliance with 268B.14 subd. 3. That is wage-deduction protection for employees, not a withholding mandate.\n\n4. DEED's own primary materials consistently describe the share as optional:\n- 'Employers can deduct up to 0.44%' (December 2025).\n- 'Employers may deduct the employee portion' (govdelivery bulletin).\n- 'Employers may choose to pay more than their required portion for some or all employees' (Senate deck, April 2025, and the September 2025 employer deck).\n- 'Employers can cover more than 0.44% if they chose' (union deck, October 2025).\n- 'Action 1: Decide how to split premiums.'\n- The employer deck also treats any amount above the minimum as an 'employer pickup' that is deductible as a business expense.\n\nOne DEED line says the reduced small-employer premium 'does not change the amount owed by employees'. In context that refers to the 0.44% maximum, not a mandatory amount.\n\nThis fits category (b) exactly: the premium is the employer's liability, and the employer may, but need not, deduct up to 0.44% of taxable wages. Calling it mixed or unclear would overweight the conditional 'must', which binds only after the employer has chosen its own share.\n\nEngine. I read the engine source this session. The mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution documentation says it assumes 'the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share'. The formula is employee_rate (0.0044 from 2026-01-01) times mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages, capped at the SS base rounded to $1,000. The aggregator employee_state_payroll_tax includes mn_employee_state_payroll_tax and is documented as 'mandatory'. The engine figure of $127.60 for scenario_032 is therefore the legal upper bound, not a mandatory amount.\n\nTiming. The statutory split rule (2023 and 2024 session laws) appears in the 2025 Statutes, published electronically on 10/19/2025, and the revisor's Table 2 shows no 2026 change to ch. 268B. The rate documents and the SSA base (Federal Register, 2025-11-03) all predate 2026-07-03. The research's quotes, citations and engine description all checked out; its only soft spot is the unconfirmed press-release date, which it disclosed. The classification stands." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "Family and medical leave premiums accrue and become payable by each employer, except for an employer with an approved private plan under section 268B.10, for each calendar year on the taxable wages that the employer paid to employees in covered employment.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "Employees, through a deduction in their wages to the employer, must pay the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "employees must pay the remaining portion due under this subdivision, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer. The employer must make wage deductions as necessary under this subdivision to fund the employee portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The failure of an employer to pay premiums does not impact the right of an employee to benefits, or any other right, under this chapter.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B.14", + "quote": "The commissioner may adjust the annual premium rates pursuant to this section prior to January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "The commissioner must maintain a premium account for each employer. The commissioner must assess the premium account for all the premiums due under section 268B.14", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "the employer must determine the amount of any overpayment attributable to a deduction from employee wages under section 268B.14, subdivision 3, and return any amount erroneously deducted to each affected employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/268B/full", + "quote": "equal to the maximum earnings in that year subject to the FICA Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance tax rounded to the nearest $1,000.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/rules/3317/full", + "quote": "An employer remains liable to the commissioner for premiums on wages paid until the effective date of the approved private plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/laws/2024/0/127/", + "quote": "Sec. 38. ... and subject to subdivision 6, ... EFFECTIVE DATE. This section is effective January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/table2?search_term=268B&year=2026", + "quote": "Chapter 268B Actions during the 2026 Regular Session ... No Records Found", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://pl.mn.gov/employers/taxes-and-paid-leave", + "quote": "If an employer pays more than the required minimum share of the premium, this is additional compensation to the employee and is included in the employee's federal gross income as wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://pl.mn.gov/employers/roles-and-responsibilities", + "quote": "Regardless of the size of your organization, you can deduct a maximum of .44% of an employee's wages to fund their portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://pl.mn.gov/resources/common-questions", + "quote": "Employers can collect up to 0.44 percent from employees. Employers may choose to pay more than their required share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://pl.mn.gov/resources/calculators/premium-rate-and-contributions", + "quote": "Employers are required to contribute 50% of premiums (33% for small employers), but can optionally choose to cover a higher percentage of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://pl.mn.gov/employers/small-employers", + "quote": "Employers can collect up to 0.44% of the premium from employees. This means small employers may pay as little as .22% of employee wages for their share of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-small-employer-premium-rate-designation-acc_tcm1045-716947.pdf", + "quote": "rounded to the nearest thousand dollars (currently $185,000). Employers can deduct up to 0.44% of wages from employees for their portion of the premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.lrl.mn.gov/archive/minutes/senate/2025/jobs/20250402/Jobs_20250402_PFML-Update-Hearing-2025-Paid-Leave-Update-Senate-presentation.pdf", + "quote": "Starting January 1, 2026, employers can deduct up to 50% of premiums from employee paychecks. Employers may choose to pay more than their required portion for some or all employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-in-person-employers_tcm1045-706805.pdf", + "quote": "Action 1: Decide how to split premiums.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://mn.gov/deed/assets/paid-leave-union-workers-presentation_tcm1045-711054.pdf", + "quote": "Employers can cover more than 0.44% if they chose.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MNDEED/bulletins/3d3828d", + "quote": "Employers may deduct the employee portion of Paid Leave premiums from paychecks starting January 1, 2026, when benefits become available.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/mn/tax/payroll/paid_leave/mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py", + "quote": "Employee-side Minnesota Paid Leave contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None that change scenario_032. I ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 this session for a single Minnesota earner with $29,000 wages in 2026. It returned mn_paid_leave_taxable_wages = 29000, mn_employee_paid_leave_contribution = 127.6, mn_employee_state_payroll_tax = 127.6 and employee_state_payroll_tax = 127.6. By hand, 0.0044 x 29,000 = $127.60. Large employer: 0.88% x 29,000 = $255.20 total, with an employer minimum of 50%, which is $127.60. Small employer: 0.66% x 29,000 = $191.40 total, with an employer minimum of 25% x 0.88% x 29,000 = $63.80, leaving at most $127.60 for the employee. The engine's figure is the legal maximum. The legal range is $0 to $127.60, and the mandatory employee amount is $0.", + "The 0.88% rate for 2026 appears in no statute or rule. 268B.14 subd. 6 still reads 0.7%. The 0.88% comes from the commissioner's adjustment authority in subd. 7 and is published only in DEED communications. I found no State Register notice. The GovDelivery bulletin has no date. The earliest dated primary document I read that states 0.88% is DEED's Senate Jobs deck, a PDF created 2025-04-01.", + "There is a wage-cap conflict. 268B.14 subd. 4 sets the cap at the OASDI maximum without rounding, which is $184,500. 268B.01 subd. 43 and DEED round it to the nearest $1,000, giving $185,000. The engine computes 1000*floor(184500/1000+0.5) = $185,000. This does not matter for a $29,000 household.", + "Several older DEED decks show earlier caps: $176,100 in the 2025-04-01 Senate deck and $176,000 in the September and October 2025 decks. Only the 2025-12-19 PDF and the current FAQ say $185,000. This is not material here.", + "DEED's current web pages were modified after the 2026-07-03 cutoff. The common-questions page was modified 2026-09-30, the premium-rate page 2026-08-31, the roles page 2026-08-19 and the small-employers page 2026-09-30. Their present text therefore does not by itself prove publication before the cutoff. The same may-deduct-up-to-0.44% content does appear in DEED documents dated before the cutoff: PDFs from 2025-04-01, 2025-09-12, 2025-10-28 and 2025-12-19, and the taxes page modified 2026-05-08. The Wayback CDX returned HTTP 429, so I could not check archived captures." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "I could not read the DEED press release mn.gov/deed/newscenter/press-releases/?id=1045-670064, which the engine's employee_rate.yaml cites. The page is behind a ShieldSquare/perfdrive bot challenge, and WebFetch returned only the headline. A search-result summary says it described the premium as 'split evenly between the employee and the employer'. I could not confirm that wording, and I did not rely on it.", + "The GovDelivery bulletin (content.govdelivery.com/accounts/MNDEED/bulletins/3d3828d) has an empty dateline. The announcement date of about 2025-02-21 rests on secondary sources: the researcher's KSTP metadata, and a Minnesota Reformer URL dated 2025/02/21 that I saw only in search results and did not read.", + "Every quote in the research that I checked matches the primary text verbatim. That covers 268B.14 subds. 1, 3, 4, 5a(b)(1)-(2), 6 and 7; 268B.01 subd. 43; 268B.10 subd. 2(5); 268B.26(b)(2); the 268B.27 collective-bargaining clause; Minn. R. 3317.5000 subp. 5; Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 38; the SSA Federal Register notice; and the four DEED PDFs and the bulletin. The union-deck quote comes from a PDF whose layout scrambles the text, but the sentence appears intact.", + "The research also says the 268B.27 clause sits in subdivision 2. I confirmed the clause text in the full chapter, but not its subdivision number." + ], + "reasoning": "Through the administration lens the sources support the classification.\n\n1) Liability. The statute places the premium on the employer. 268B.14 subd. 1 says premiums \"accrue and become payable by each employer.\" Under 268B.13 the commissioner assesses each employer's premium account. Interest, liens and levies under 268B.15 and 268B.23 run against the employer. Minn. R. 3317.5000 subp. 5 says the employer \"remains liable to the commissioner for premiums.\" Nothing in ch. 268B or Minn. R. ch. 3317 makes an employee liable to the state for premiums that were not deducted. An applicant owes the state only for benefit overpayments under 268B.185. Subd. 9 keeps the employee's rights intact if the employer fails to pay. 268B.15 subd. 7(d) requires the employer to refund wrongly deducted amounts to employees, which treats the deduction as the employer's charge-back mechanism.\n\n2) May or must. The administrative rules (Minn. R. ch. 3317, published 2025-07-09 at 49 SR 1368) say nothing about how the premium is split. The only related text is a private-plan notice item describing \"the process to calculate and collect employee contributions.\" Every DEED source I read uses permissive language. The bulletin says \"Employers may deduct the employee portion.\" The 2025-12-19 PDF says \"Employers can deduct up to 0.44%.\" The roles page says \"you can deduct a maximum of .44%.\" The FAQ says \"can collect up to 0.44 percent... may choose to pay more.\" The calculator page says employers \"can optionally choose to cover a higher percentage.\" The September 2025 employer deck tells employers to \"Decide how to split premiums.\"\n\n3) Can the employer choose to pay it? Yes. Subd. 3 fixes only an employer floor of 50%, or 25% of the full rate for small employers under subd. 5a. The employee pays \"the remaining portion, if any, of the premium not paid by the employer.\" The \"must\" in subd. 3 and in subd. 5a(b)(2) (\"must make wage deductions as necessary\") applies only to whatever the employer has chosen not to pay. It does not set a fixed employee amount. The employer must notify each employee of \"the amount of premium deductions made by the employer\" (268B.26(b)(2)), which assumes the amount varies by employer. This matches the benchmark's option (b): the premium is the employer's liability, and the employer may, but need not, deduct up to a share.\n\n4) Rate, share and cap. The total is 0.88%, split 0.61% medical and 0.27% family, set under the subd. 7 adjustment authority. Small employers pay 0.66%. The maximum employee share is 0.44% for both sizes, which I recomputed from the statute and confirmed in DEED documents. The cap is the OASDI base of $184,500 (Federal Register, 2025-11-03), rounded to $185,000 under 268B.01 subd. 43. The statutory split rule took effect 2026-01-01 (Laws 2024 c 127 art 73 s 38) and appears in the 2025 Statutes, whose PDF was created 2025-10-19. The revisor's Table 2 lists no 2026 Regular Session actions for ch. 268B, though it does list 2026 actions for ch. 268. All of this was published before 2026-07-03.\n\n5) Engine. I read the source and ran it. It applies a flat 0.0044 rate to wages capped at $185,000, and its documentation says it assumes \"the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.\" The aggregator's documentation calls its components \"mandatory\" employee payroll taxes, but for Minnesota the component is the legal maximum, not a mandatory amount. For scenario_032 the engine's $127.60 equals the legal maximum exactly. The legally possible range is $0 to $127.60. The deduction also cannot push pay below the applicable minimum wage; that limit binds only if the hourly wage is within about 0.44% of the minimum wage, and the prompt gives no hours.\n\nNuance that does not change the result. DEED's taxes page (modified 2026-05-08) says an employer that pays more than its minimum share is giving the employee additional compensation, taxable as wages. It also says the employee may deduct the full amount \"that the employer pays on their behalf (up to .44% of wages)\" as a state income tax. So for federal tax purposes, an employer pickup is still treated as the employee's 0.44%, paid through extra wages. That is how the federal government characterizes a choice the employer makes. It does not create any state-law duty to deduct, so the share remains an optional employer pass-through.\n\nAll key quotes were confirmed. The one gap in the rate's provenance is that I could not read the bot-blocked press release, and the dated DEED PDFs cover that gap. Not refuted." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "CO", + "research": { + "program": "Colorado Paid Family and Medical Leave Insurance (FAMLI) premiums", + "state": "CO", + "engine_variables": [ + "co_employee_famli_contribution", + "co_famli_taxable_wages", + "co_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "co_employer_famli_contribution (employer side, for contrast)", + "parameter gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employee_rate", + "parameter gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employer_rate", + "parameter gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employer_headcount_threshold", + "parameter gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer. C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) says the employer \"shall remit\" premiums to the fund for each employee. Under 507(5), an employer with 10 or more employees must remit 100% of the premium, and one with fewer than 10 must remit 50%. The employee has no statutory duty to pay the state on covered employment. The statute's only employee payment duty is for people who opt in under 8-13.3-514: self-employed individuals and employees of local governments that opted out (507(4), 507(9)(b)). The purposes clause, 8-13.3-502(4)(a), speaks of collecting premiums \"from employers and employees\", but it is a findings clause, not an operative rule. Under 507(7), premiums are \"fees and not taxes\".", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) (Colorado Revised Statutes 2025, OLLS uncertified printout, Title 8 p. 221)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "beginning on January 1, 2023, for each employee, an employer shall remit to the fund established under section 8-13.3-518 premiums in the form and manner determined by the division.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5), first sentence (employers with 10 or more employees)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with 10 or more employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 100 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5), second sentence (employers with fewer than 10 employees)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with fewer than 10 employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 50 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(3)(b), as amended by SB 25-144 (the PDF text breaks 'eighty-eight' across a line)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "From January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026, the premium amount is eighty-eight hundredths of one percent of wages per employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "SB 25-144, Session Laws 2025 ch. 293, section 2 (signed act; Approved: May 30, 2025)", + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/laws/session-laws/SB25-144/293/download", + "quote": "FROM JANUARY 1, 2026, THROUGH DECEMBER 31, 2026, THE PREMIUM AMOUNT IS EIGHTY -EIGHT HUNDREDTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF WAGES PER EMPLOYEE .", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(6) (wage cap)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Premiums shall not be required for employees' wages above the contribution and benefit base limit established annually by the federal social security administration", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(7)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Premiums established under this section are fees and not taxes.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(8) (approved private plans)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with an approved private plan under section 8-13.3-521 shall not be required to remit premiums under this section to the fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(9)(b) (local government opt-out)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employee of the local government is not required to pay the premiums imposed in this section unless the employee has elected coverage pursuant to section 8-13.3-514.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-521(1)(k) (private plan cost to employees)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "the cost to employees covered by a private plan shall not be greater than the cost charged to employees under the state plan under section 8-13.3-507.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "C.R.S. 8-13.3-503(8)(c)", + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "\"Employer\" does not include the federal government.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "7 CCR 1107-1 section 1.4(6) (current version effective 01/01/2026; adopted 10/31/2025; Colorado Register 12/10/2025)", + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "An employer required to remit premiums pursuant to C.R.S. \u00a7 8-13.3-507 may not deduct more than the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "7 CCR 1107-1 section 1.4(6)(A) (effective 01/01/2026)", + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "7 CCR 1107-1 section 1.4 (original rule effective 01/01/2022; defines the shares)", + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=9914&fileName=7+CCR+1107-1", + "quote": "\"Employee share\" is defined as 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) C.R.S.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "The premiums are set to 0.88% of the employee's wage, with 0.44% paid by the employer and 0.44% paid by the employee. Some employers may choose not to deduct any premiums contributions from their employees' wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Employers cannot collect missed premiums from employees in later pay periods. It is important to know employees are never required to pay more than 50% of the total premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Businesses with nine or fewer employees should submit wage reports and send in 0.44% of their employees wages each quarter.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If you have 10 or more employees (nationwide), you may deduct up to 50% of the 0.88% premium as a standard payroll deduction.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If you have less than 10 employees (nationwide), you are not required to pay the employer share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/update-your-employee-headcount-for-2026-premiums", + "quote": "Option to deduct up to 0.44% from employee wages toward your total premium amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/another-national-first-paid-leave-for-neonatal-intensive-care-unit-parents", + "quote": "The measure also lowers premiums for all Colorado workers and employers, from 0.9% of wages to 0.88% of wages, starting in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Yes. C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5) says the employer \"may deduct up to 50 percent\" of the premium from wages, while the employer stays liable to remit the full premium (or 50% for employers with fewer than 10 employees). Under 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(A), in force since 01/01/2026, an employer that does not deduct the maximum \"is considered to have elected to pay\" that part of the employee share. It cannot recover the amount from later paychecks, except when the employee's wages were too low to cover it. The FAMLI Division's employer page agrees: \"Some employers may choose not to deduct any premiums contributions.\"", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.88% of wages per employee, for January 1 through December 31, 2026. Source: C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(3)(b), as amended by SB 25-144 (Session Laws 2025, ch. 293).", + "max_employee_share": "0.44% of wages, which is 50% of the 0.88% premium (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5); 'employee share' is defined as 50% in 7 CCR 1107-1). The maximum is the same for employers of any size. The employer may deduct less, down to $0.", + "wage_base_or_cap": "Premiums apply only up to the Social Security contribution and benefit base (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(6); 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(10)). For 2026 that base is $184,500, per the SSA notice in the Federal Register, 90 FR, doc. 2025-19763, published 2025-11-03. The maximum employee share is therefore $811.80 (0.0044 x 184,500).", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/laws/session-laws/SB25-144/293/download", + "published": "SB 25-144 signed act, Approved May 30, 2025; effective August 6, 2025 (bill page https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb25-144: Governor signed 2025-05-30, Session Law ch. 293)" + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "published": "Colorado Revised Statutes 2025 Title 8 (OLLS); the server reports Last-Modified 2025-09-16; it includes 8-13.3-507(3)(b) as amended by SB 25-144" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "published": "7 CCR 1107-1, version effective 2026-01-01; adopted 2025-10-31; published in the Colorado Register 2025-12-10 (eDocket 2025-00438), per the SOS rule history page" + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/another-national-first-paid-leave-for-neonatal-intensive-care-unit-parents", + "published": "FAMLI Division news, dated Monday, June 16, 2025 (0.88% starting in 2026)" + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/update-your-employee-headcount-for-2026-premiums", + "published": "FAMLI Division news, Updated Thursday, December 11, 2025 (2026 rates: 0.88% for 10+, 0.44% for 9 or fewer, all employers may deduct up to 0.44%)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "published": "SSA, Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026, Federal Register 2025-11-03 (OASDI base $184,500 for 2026)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The 0.88% rate was enacted May 30, 2025 and took effect August 6, 2025. The 50% employee cap has been in the statute since Proposition 118 (effective December 31, 2020). The $184,500 wage base was published November 3, 2025. The implementing rule was published December 10, 2025. All of these predate 2026-07-03." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_043", + "engine_amount": 17.99, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 17.99, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "The law's maximum employee share is 50% x 0.88% = 0.44%. Wages of $4,088.15 are below the 2026 cap of $184,500, so the whole amount counts: 4,088.15 x 0.0044 = 17.98786, which rounds to $17.99. The engine computes employee_rate (0.0044 from 2026-01-01) x min(max(0, employment_income), SS cap) = 4,088.15 x 0.0044 = 17.98786, or $17.99. The difference is $0.00. Rounding each pay period to the half-cent (7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(B)) could move this by a few cents. The legally required employee amount is $0: deduction is at the employer's option, and an employer that does not deduct is treated as having paid the share. So $17.99 is the most an employer may deduct, not a mandatory withholding." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "I read these files this session, all under .venv-pe21517/.../policyengine_us.\n\n- **co_employee_famli_contribution.py.** Label \"Colorado employee FAMLI contribution\"; documentation \"Employee-side Colorado FAMLI payroll contribution.\" The formula is `rate * person(\"co_famli_taxable_wages\")` with rate = gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employee_rate. It does not depend on employer headcount. Unlike the Minnesota variable, it does not document an assumption that the employer withholds the maximum permitted share.\n- **co_famli_taxable_wages.py.** Documentation: \"Wages subject to Colorado FAMLI premiums, including federal pre-tax payroll deductions and capped at the Social Security contribution and benefit base.\" The formula is min(max(0, employment_income), gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap). That cap is 184,500 for 2026-01-01, marked \"Official SSA determination.\"\n- **employee_rate.yaml.** Description: \"Employee-side Colorado FAMLI contribution rate.\" Values: 0.0045 from 2023-01-01 and 0.0044 from 2026-01-01. References: C.R.S. 8-13.3-507 (crs2023-title-08.pdf#page=199) and the Colorado Senate Bill 25-144 engrossed version (2025a_144_eng.pdf#page=2), not the signed act.\n- **employer_rate.yaml.** Same values and references.\n- **employer_headcount_threshold.yaml.** Value 10, citing 8-13.3-507.\n- **co_employer_famli_contribution.py.** Employer rate x wages only when employer_headcount >= 10, otherwise 0.\n- **co_employee_state_payroll_tax.py.** Documentation: \"Employee-side Colorado payroll-funded contributions, including FAMLI.\" It adds co_employee_famli_contribution.\n- **variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py.** Documentation: \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.\" Its components include co_employee_state_payroll_tax.\n\nThe aggregator's word \"mandatory\" does not fit Colorado, where the employee share is a permissive deduction.", + "caveats": [ + "The deduction is optional for every covered employer. Under C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5) the employer 'may deduct up to 50 percent', and under 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(A) a deduction it does not take counts as the employer electing to pay that share. The employee's actual FAMLI cost can be anywhere from $0 to 0.44% of wages. The benchmark prompt never states whether the employer deducts.", + "Employers with fewer than 10 employees (headcount counted nationwide, people employed 20 or more workweeks in the prior year, per 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.5) owe no employer share. They must still remit 50% (0.44%) and may deduct all of it from wages. The maximum employee share is the same 0.44%; what changes is the employer's remittance (0.88% versus 0.44%). An employer that does not update its headcount by February 28 is presumed to have 10 or more employees.", + "Approved private plans (8-13.3-507(8), 8-13.3-521): the employer remits nothing to the state fund. Under 521(1)(k), the plan may charge employees no more than the state plan would, so an employee might still pay up to 0.44%, but to the plan, not as a state premium.", + "Local governments may opt out (8-13.3-507(9), 8-13.3-522). Their employees owe nothing unless they opt in under 8-13.3-514, in which case they pay 50% of the premium directly (507(4)(b)-(c)), or through withholding if the local government agrees to collect it.", + "The federal government is not an 'employer' (8-13.3-503(8)(c)), so federal employees owe no FAMLI premium. Railroad employees covered by the Railroad Unemployment Insurance Act are excluded from 'employee' (503(7)).", + "Self-employed people are covered only if they opt in (8-13.3-514), and then pay 50% of the premium on self-employment income (507(4)(a)). The benchmark excludes self-employment tax.", + "Collective bargaining: I found no provision in Part 5 that sets the premium split under a CBA. 8-13.3-510(2)(a) only says Part 5 does not diminish CBA rights or obligations. Because the deduction is permissive, a CBA or employer policy can reduce the employee's deduction to $0 but cannot raise it above 50% (7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6) prohibits over-deduction).", + "Only wages of employees localized to Colorado are subject to premiums (7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.6). 'Wages' means gross wages (7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.2(9)); the agency says premium deductions are post-tax.", + "Under C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(7), FAMLI premiums 'are fees and not taxes'. That matters for whether they count under the prompt's 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes' at all.", + "8-13.3-502(4)(a), a findings clause, refers to collecting premiums 'from employers and employees'. The operative sections, 507(2) and (5), still put the remittance duty on the employer and make the employee deduction permissive.", + "Rates for 2027 onward are set by the director's rule by September 1 of the prior year (507(3)(c), capped at 1.2%). This does not affect 2026.", + "famli.colorado.gov returned 403 to WebFetch, so I read those pages via curl with a browser user agent. ssa.gov returned 403, so I verified the 2026 wage base from the Federal Register notice instead." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "This is an optional employer pass-through, not a mandatory employee withholding. Under C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2) and (5), the premium is the employer's liability: an employer with 10 or more employees must remit the full 0.88% in 2026, and one with fewer than 10 must remit 0.44%. Either kind of employer \"may deduct up to 50 percent\" (0.44% of wages) from the employee, up to the Social Security wage base of $184,500. 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(A), effective 2026-01-01, says an employer that does not deduct the maximum is treated as having elected to pay that share. The FAMLI Division also says some employers choose to deduct nothing. The 2026 rate comes from SB 25-144, signed 2025-05-30 and effective 2025-08-06; every input predates 2026-07-03. The engine counts co_employee_famli_contribution = 0.44% x min(wages, SS cap) whatever the employer's size or choice. For scenario_043 that is 4,088.15 x 0.0044 = $17.99, which equals the law's maximum permitted employee share exactly. The legally mandatory employee amount is $0, so this is a maximum the employer may deduct, not a required withholding. The aggregator documentation's word \"mandatory\" does not hold for Colorado, and unlike Minnesota the Colorado variable does not document the \"employer deducts the maximum\" assumption." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with 10 or more employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 100 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with fewer than 10 employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 50 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "beginning on January 1, 2023, for each employee, an employer shall remit to the fund established under section 8-13.3-518 premiums in the form and manner determined by the division.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "From January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026, the premium amount is eighty-eight hundredths of one percent of wages per employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "A self-employed individual who elects coverage under section 8-13.3-514 shall pay only 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Collect insurance premiums from employers and employees at rates reasonably calculated to defray the costs of providing the program's leave benefits to workers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "The division shall develop a program notice that details the program requirements, benefits, claims process, payroll deduction requirements", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Premiums established under this section are fees and not taxes.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2026-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with 10 or more employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 100 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/laws/session-laws/SB25-144/293/download", + "quote": "FROM JANUARY 1, 2026, THROUGH DECEMBER 31, 2026, THE PREMIUM AMOUNT IS EIGHTY -EIGHT HUNDREDTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF WAGES PER EMPLOYEE .", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb25-144", + "quote": "Governor Signed: May 30, 2025 ... Session Law Chapter: 293 ... Effective Date: August 6, 2025", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "An employer required to remit premiums pursuant to C.R.S. \u00a7 8-13.3-507 may not deduct more than the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=9914&fileName=7+CCR+1107-1", + "quote": "\u201cEmployee share\u201d is defined as 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) C.R.S.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/eDocketDetails.do?trackingNum=2025-00438", + "quote": "Adopted Date 10/31/2025 ... Colorado Register publication date 12/10/2025 Effective Date 01/01/2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/Upload/AGORequest/Redline2025-00438.docx", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "The premiums are set to 0.88% of the employee\u2019s wage, with 0.44% paid by the employer and 0.44% paid by the employee. Some employers may choose not to deduct any premiums contributions from their employees\u2019 wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Most Colorado businesses should be deducting FAMLI premiums from all employees on their payroll, including full-time, part-time, and seasonal.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If you have 10 or more employees (nationwide), you may deduct up to 50% of the 0.88% premium as a standard payroll deduction.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If both jobs are with employers that are choosing to deduct the employee\u2019s portion of the premium and are not an opted out local government", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/update-your-employee-headcount-for-2026-premiums", + "quote": "All employers: Option to deduct up to 0.44% from employee wages toward your total premium amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/another-national-first-paid-leave-for-neonatal-intensive-care-unit-parents", + "quote": "The measure also lowers premiums for all Colorado workers and employers, from 0.9% of wages to 0.88% of wages, starting in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/co/tax/payroll/famli/co_employee_famli_contribution.py", + "quote": "rate = parameters(period).gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employee_rate\n return rate * person(\"co_famli_taxable_wages\", period)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py", + "quote": "Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None that change the result. 4,088.15 x 0.0044 = 17.98786, which rounds to $17.99 and matches the engine. The 2026 OASDI base of $184,500 is confirmed in the Federal Register (90 FR 49047, 2025-11-03) and in the engine's cap.yaml, where it is labeled 'Official SSA determination'. The maximum employee share is 0.0044 x 184,500 = $811.80.", + "The engine treats the maximum permitted deduction (0.44%) as the employee's payroll tax. The legally required employee amount for an ordinary private-sector W-2 employee is $0, because the deduction is at the employer's option. $17.99 is a ceiling, not a mandatory withholding.", + "The 0.88% total rate for 2026 rests on C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(3)(b), as amended by SB 25-144 (Session Laws 2025 ch. 293, approved May 30, 2025, effective August 6, 2025). The CRS 2026 Title 8 (server Last-Modified 2026-10-02) shows 507 unchanged. Its source note lists no 2026 amendment to 507. The only 2026 change in Part 5 is HB 26-1309, which amended 503(6). So nothing enacted in the 2026 session altered the 2026 rate or the 'may deduct' rule before 2026-07-03.", + "Small timing nuance: 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(B) rounds each pay period to the cent, with half a cent or more rounding up. An annual figure built from per-period deductions could differ from $17.99 by a few cents. This does not affect the classification." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "Page number: 8-13.3-507(2) is cited as 'Title 8 p. 221', but in crs2025-title-08.pdf it falls on 'Page 220 of 796'. 507(1) through (3)(c)(II) are on p. 220, and (3)(c)(III) through (9) are on p. 221. The quoted text is verbatim.", + "The research says 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(A) has been 'in force since 01/01/2026'. That is imprecise. The SOS editor's notes for the version effective 2026-01-01 list only 1.4 2 and 1.4 10 as changed within 1.4. The 2025-00438 redline shows 1.4(6) and (6)(A) carried over unamended. The original 2022 rule (ruleVersionId 9914, part B.1(a)) already had the same 'considered to have elected to pay' rule. The provision is older than the research says, which, if anything, strengthens the classification.", + "rate_2026.max_employee_share says \"'employee share' is defined as 50% in 7 CCR 1107-1\". That definition appears only in the superseded original version effective 2022-01-01 (ruleVersionId 9914). The current version effective 2026-01-01 (ruleVersionId 12341) uses 'maximum allowable employee share' without defining it. The 50% cap rests directly on C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(5). The operative_text entry itself correctly labels the quote as coming from the original rule, and the quote is verbatim at that URL.", + "Trivial: the agency quotes use straight apostrophes ('employee's'), while the pages use curly ones (\u2019). Otherwise every quote checked appears verbatim at its stated URL: the statute, SB 25-144, the rules, the FAMLI pages, and the Federal Register.", + "The research reports that famli.colorado.gov returned 403 to WebFetch. A curl request with a browser user agent returned HTTP 200 for all four FAMLI pages, so those pages can be verified." + ], + "reasoning": "I read all of Part 5 of Article 13.3 (8-13.3-501 through 524) myself in the OLLS CRS 2025 Title 8 PDF, plus the definitions in 503. Then I searched the whole part for 'deduct', 'withh', 'shall pay', 'employee shall', 'liab' and 'contribut'. In covered private employment, the only premium-payment duty falls on the employer: 507(2) says the employer 'shall remit' premiums 'for each employee'. Section 507(5) is the only provision on employee deductions, and it is permissive in both sentences: 'may deduct up to 50 percent'. The employer still 'shall remit' 100% (10 or more employees) or 50% (fewer than 10).\n\nThe 'shall pay' language appears only in 507(4)(a)-(b). It applies to self-employed people and employees of opted-out local governments who elect coverage under 514, and they remit directly. 507(9)(b) confirms that local-government employees owe nothing unless they elect coverage. 509(2)'s 'shall continue to pay' concerns health-benefit cost-sharing during leave, not premiums.\n\nTwo passages could be read the other way, and neither is operative:\n- 502(4)(a), a findings clause, authorizes the enterprise to 'collect insurance premiums from employers and employees'.\n- 511 requires the program notice to describe 'payroll deduction requirements'. The rules give that content: an employer must not deduct more than the employee share, and a missed deduction cannot be clawed back.\n\nNeither creates an employee liability or a duty to withhold. I found no 'shall deduct' or 'shall withhold' clause anywhere in Part 5.\n\nThe current rule, 7 CCR 1107-1 (ruleVersionId 12341), confirms the reading. I verified on the SOS eDocket that it was adopted 10/31/2025, published in the Colorado Register 12/10/2025, and took effect 01/01/2026. Under \u00a71.4(6), the employer 'may not deduct more than' the maximum allowable employee share. Under \u00a71.4(6)(A), a missed deduction means the employer 'is considered to have elected to pay' that share. That is optional pass-through language, and it has been in the rule since the 2022 original.\n\nThe FAMLI Division's pages say the same. 'Some employers may choose not to deduct any premiums contributions.' The FAQ offers an 'Option to deduct up to 0.44%', says employers 'may deduct up to 50%', and refers to 'employers that are choosing to deduct'. Some agency language points toward the employee paying: 'Most Colorado businesses should be deducting', the FAQ table's 'Employee Premium' column, and 'collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share'. That is descriptive guidance, it contradicts no statute, and the same pages state that deduction is optional.\n\nI also checked the CRS 2026 Title 8. Section 507 is unchanged and has no 2026 amendment, so no 2026 session law made the deduction mandatory before 2026-07-03.\n\nIn the engine source, co_employee_famli_contribution = employee_rate (0.0044 from 2026-01-01) x min(max(0, employment_income), SS cap of 184,500). It does not depend on employer headcount or on whether the employer deducts. Unlike the Minnesota variable, it does not document the 'maximum share' assumption. The aggregator employee_state_payroll_tax calls its components 'mandatory', which does not hold for Colorado. For scenario_043, $17.99 equals the maximum permitted deduction exactly. The legally mandatory employee amount is $0.\n\nThe only defects I found in the research are minor citation and characterization issues: a page number, the 'in force since 01/01/2026' dating, and citing the superseded 2022 definition of 'employee share' as if it were current. None of them undermines the classification. Classification confirmed: optional_employer_pass_through." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with 10 or more employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 100 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "An employer with fewer than 10 employees may deduct up to 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3-507 (3) from that employee's wages and shall remit 50 percent of the premium", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "beginning on January 1, 2023, for each employee, an employer shall remit to the fund established under section 8-13.3-518 premiums in the form and manner determined by the division.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "(b) From January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026, the premium amount is eighty- eight hundredths of one percent of wages per employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Premiums shall not be required for employees' wages above the contribution and benefit base limit established annually by the federal social security administration", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "Premiums established under this section are fees and not taxes.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "(a) Collect insurance premiums from employers and employees at rates reasonably calculated to defray the costs of providing the program's leave benefits to workers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://olls.info/crs/crs2025-title-08.pdf", + "quote": "(II) Paid wages of one thousand five hundred dollars or more during any calendar quarter in the preceding calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "An employer required to remit premiums pursuant to C.R.S. \u00a7 8-13.3-507 may not deduct more than the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=12341&fileName=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "Rules 1.1 3, 1.2 3, 1.2 5, 1.3 1, 1.3 2.D, 1.4 2, 1.4 10, 1.5, 1.6 5 eff. 01/01/2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=9914&fileName=7+CCR+1107-1", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/GenerateRulePdf.do?ruleVersionId=9914&fileName=7+CCR+1107-1", + "quote": "\u201cEmployee share\u201d is defined as 50 percent of the premium required for an employee by section 8-13.3- 507 (3) C.R.S.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.sos.state.co.us/CCR/DisplayRule.do?action=ruleinfo&ruleId=3367&deptID=2&agencyID=89&deptName=Department%20of%20Labor%20and%20Employment&agencyName=Division%20of%20Family%20and%20Medical%20Leave%20Insurance&seriesNum=7%20CCR%201107-1", + "quote": "Current version ... 01/01/2026 (PDF) Permanent Rule 10/31/2025 12/10/2025 2025-00438", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/laws/session-laws/SB25-144/293/download", + "quote": "FROM JANUARY 1, 2026, THROUGH DECEMBER 31, 2026, THE PREMIUM AMOUNT IS EIGHTY -EIGHT HUNDREDTHS OF ONE PERCENT OF WAGES PER EMPLOYEE . ... Approved: May 30, 2025", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb25-144", + "quote": "Became Law; Governor Signed: May 30, 2025; Session Law Chapter 293; Effective Date 08/06/2025 (as summarized by WebFetch)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/SB26-127", + "quote": "Status Lost; on April 9, 2026 the Senate Committee on Business, Labor, & Technology voted to postpone SB 26-127 indefinitely (as summarized by WebFetch); no premium change", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Some employers may choose not to deduct any premiums contributions from their employees\u2019 wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Employers cannot collect missed premiums from employees in later pay periods. It is important to know employees are never required to pay more than 50% of the total premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers", + "quote": "Most Colorado businesses should be deducting FAMLI premiums from all employees on their payroll, including full-time, part-time, and seasonal.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If both jobs are with employers that are choosing to deduct the employee\u2019s portion of the premium and are not an opted out local government", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "If you have 10 or more employees (nationwide), you may deduct up to 50% of the 0.88% premium as a standard payroll deduction.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/employers/employer-faqs", + "quote": "you as the employer would be required to pay the 0.44% employer's share and collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share for each of those eight employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/update-your-employee-headcount-for-2026-premiums", + "quote": "Option to deduct up to 0.44% from employee wages toward your total premium amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://famli.colorado.gov/news-article/another-national-first-paid-leave-for-neonatal-intensive-care-unit-parents", + "quote": "lowers premiums for all Colorado workers and employers, from 0.9% of wages to 0.88% of wages, starting in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/co/tax/payroll/famli/co_employee_famli_contribution.py", + "quote": "rate = parameters(period).gov.states.co.tax.payroll.famli.employee_rate; return rate * person(\"co_famli_taxable_wages\", period)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. I independently confirmed the 2026 total rate of 0.88% (C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(3)(b), as amended by SB 25-144, ch. 293, approved 2025-05-30 and effective 2025-08-06), the maximum employee share of 50% = 0.44% (507(5)), and the wage cap equal to the OASDI base of $184,500 (507(6); 90 FR 49047, published 2025-11-03).", + "scenario_043: 4,088.15 x 0.0044 = 17.98786, or $17.99. I ran the installed engine (policyengine-us in .venv-pe21517) for a single CO earner with $4,088.15 of 2026 employment income. It returned co_famli_taxable_wages 4088.15, and co_employee_famli_contribution, co_employee_state_payroll_tax and employee_state_payroll_tax each 17.98786. That matches the researcher's $17.99 exactly. The legally mandatory employee amount is $0. $17.99 is the most an employer may deduct.", + "Minor wording: the researcher describes 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(B) as rounding 'to the half-cent'. The rule drops a fraction of a cent unless it is one-half cent or more, in which case it rounds up to one cent. So it is half-up rounding to the cent. The amount impact is negligible either way.", + "Not raised by the researcher: C.R.S. 8-13.3-503(8)(a) defines 'employer' as one that employed someone in 20 or more workweeks, or paid $1,500 or more of wages in a calendar quarter of the preceding year. A very small or new employer may fall outside it and owe no premium at all. The prompt does not specify, so this widens the legally possible range further toward $0." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "Stale definition cite: rate_2026.max_employee_share says \"'employee share' is defined as 50% in 7 CCR 1107-1\" in the present tense. That definition appears only in the original version effective 01/01/2022 (ruleVersionId 9914, \u00a71.4 Definitions), where I confirmed it verbatim. The current version effective 01/01/2026 (ruleVersionId 12341, \u00a71.2 Definitions and Clarifications) has no 'Employee share' definition. The 50% cap still holds through the statute (507(5)), so the conclusion is unaffected.", + "The can_employer_elect field says 7 CCR 1107-1 \u00a71.4(6)(A) is 'in force since 01/01/2026'. That understates its age. The same 'considered to have elected to pay' language is in the original rule effective 01/01/2022. The current version's editor's notes list the provisions amended effective 01/01/2026 (1.1 3, 1.2 3, 1.2 5, 1.3 1, 1.3 2.D, 1.4 2, 1.4 10, 1.5, 1.6 5), and 1.4 6 is not among them. This only makes the optional reading stronger, since the rule has been in force for the whole program.", + "I confirmed every other operative quote verbatim against the documents I fetched: 507(2), 507(3)(b), 507(5) both sentences, 507(6), 507(7), 507(8), 507(9)(b), 521(1)(k), 503(8)(c), 502(4)(a), rule 1.4(6) and 1.4(6)(A), the SB 25-144 session-law text and 'Approved: May 30, 2025', all seven FAMLI agency quotes, the FAMLI news-article dates (June 16, 2025; Updated Thursday, December 11, 2025), and the SOS rule history (adopted 10/31/2025, Colorado Register 12/10/2025, eDocket 2025-00438). The SB 25-144 quote keeps PDF text-extraction spacing ('EIGHTY -EIGHT', 'EMPLOYEE .'), which is an artifact of extraction, not a misquote.", + "Omitted contrary agency language, which does not change the result: the FAMLI employer FAQ says an employer with 10 or more employees is 'required to pay the 0.44% employer's share and collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share'. The employers page says 'Most Colorado businesses should be deducting FAMLI premiums'. Both are informal guidance. The same pages also say 'Some employers may choose not to deduct' and refer to 'employers that are choosing to deduct', and the statute and rule control." + ], + "reasoning": "I tried to refute the classification through the administration lens and could not. Every primary source I read supports 'optional employer pass-through'.\n\nStatute: I downloaded the OLLS CRS 2025 Title 8 PDF myself (Last-Modified 2025-09-16). In C.R.S. 8-13.3-507(2), the duty to remit falls on the employer alone ('an employer shall remit'). 507(5) gives employers of both sizes the power that they 'may deduct up to 50 percent' of the premium from wages, while they 'shall remit' 100% (10 or more employees) or 50% (fewer than 10). Part 5 imposes a payment duty on an individual only in 507(4): self-employed people and local-government employees who opt in under 8-13.3-514. 507(9)(b) confirms that an opted-out local government's employee 'is not required to pay' unless they elect coverage. The findings clause 502(4)(a) mentions collecting 'from employers and employees', but it is not operative. 507(7) says premiums are 'fees and not taxes'.\n\nRules: I read both the current 7 CCR 1107-1 (effective 01/01/2026; adopted 10/31/2025; Colorado Register 12/10/2025, per the SOS history page I fetched) and the original 2022 version. In both, an employer that fails to deduct the maximum 'is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share'. The current rule bars the employer from recovering it later except when wages were insufficient, and fines over-deduction. Neither version contains any provision that makes the employee liable when no deduction is taken. The only 'owes' provision (1.4(3)) applies to individuals electing coverage.\n\nAgency guidance: I fetched famli.colorado.gov with curl and a browser user agent, because WebFetch got a 403. The agency says employers 'may deduct up to 50%', that 'Some employers may choose not to deduct', and it refers to 'employers that are choosing to deduct'. The 2026 headcount notice says all employers have the 'Option to deduct up to 0.44%'. Some looser FAQ wording ('collect and remit the 0.44% of the employee's share'; 'should be deducting') is informal guidance that conflicts with the agency's own 'may choose not to deduct'. It cannot override the statute's 'may' or the rule's deemed election.\n\nSo the employee's legal liability is $0, and up to 0.44% of capped wages is at the employer's discretion.\n\nRates and dates: SB 25-144 session law ch. 293 (approved May 30, 2025; the bill page says effective 08/06/2025) sets 0.88% for 2026. The OASDI base of $184,500 is in 90 FR 49047, published 2025-11-03. All of these predate 2026-07-03. I found one 2026-session FAMLI bill, SB26-127; it was postponed indefinitely on 2026-04-09 and does not touch premiums.\n\nEngine: I read the engine source this session. co_employee_famli_contribution = employee_rate (0.0044 from 2026-01-01) x min(max(0, employment_income), SS cap of 184,500). It does not depend on employer headcount or on any employer-deduction choice, and it carries no documented 'employer deducts the maximum' assumption. The Minnesota variable does carry that assumption ('withholds the maximum permitted employee share'). employee_state_payroll_tax's documentation calls its components 'mandatory', which does not hold for Colorado. Running the engine gave 17.98786 for scenario_043, which equals 0.44% x $4,088.15, the legal maximum permitted deduction, not a mandatory withholding.\n\nThe only defects I found are minor citation issues: a stale 'employee share' definition cite and an understated in-force date for \u00a71.4(6)(A). Neither undermines the classification." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "MA", + "research": { + "program": "Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) contributions, M.G.L. c. 175M", + "state": "MA", + "engine_variables": [ + "ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "ma_employee_state_payroll_tax (aggregator, adds ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution)", + "ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages", + "ma_employer_paid_leave_contribution (employer side, not in payroll_tax)", + "parameters gov.states.ma.tax.payroll.paid_leave.family_rate / medical_rate / medical_employee_share / employer_headcount_threshold", + "gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer owes the contribution. Under M.G.L. c. 175M s. 6(a), the employer (or covered business entity) \"shall remit\" the contributions for each employee to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund. Under s. 7(d), employers, covered business entities and electing self-employed individuals \"make contributions\". 458 CMR 2.05(5) defines the employer's portion as whatever it does not deduct from wages, and says the employer \"in all instances\" pays and remits the remainder. 458 CMR 2.05(7) penalizes the employer for failing to remit and bars it from recouping from employees an allowable deduction it failed to take. The employee owes nothing to the state directly. Their only exposure is a wage deduction the employer chooses to take, up to the statutory caps. The exception is self-employed people who elect coverage: they are responsible for all contributions (s. 6(b)).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(a)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "For each employee or covered contract worker, an employer or a covered business entity shall remit to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund established in section 7 contributions in the form and manner as determined by the department.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(c)(1)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "For medical leave, an employer shall not deduct more than 40 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages and shall remit the full contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(c)(2)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "For family leave, an employer may deduct not more than 100 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages, and shall remit the full contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(d) (employers with fewer than 25 employees)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "an employer employing less than 25 employees in the commonwealth shall not be required to pay the employer portion of premiums for family and medical leave; provided, however, that such employer shall remit, for each employee, 100 per cent of the family leave contribution and 40 per cent", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 6(f) (wage cap)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "Contributions to the trust fund under this section shall not be required for employees' wages ... above the contribution and benefit base limit established annually by the federal Social Security Administration", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 7(d) and 7(e)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section7", + "quote": "employers, covered business entities and self-employed individuals shall, unless subject to provisions under section 11, make contributions as required under section 6 and transmit those contributions to the trust fund", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "458 CMR 2.05(5) (official mass.gov PDF, regulation dated 01/06/2023)", + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "an employer or a covered business entity may deduct up to certain defined percentages of the required medical leave and family leave contributions directly from wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "458 CMR 2.05(5)", + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "The employer or covered business entity in all instances shall be responsible for paying and remitting the remainder of any required contribution not lawfully deducted from the employee or covered contract worker.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)", + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that opts to deduct a lower percentage of medical or family leave contributions than the maximum allowable deductions ... shall still be required to remit the full amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "458 CMR 2.05(5)(d)", + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity may choose to deduct differing percentages from the wages or qualifying payments of different groups of covered individuals", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "458 CMR 2.05(7)", + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that failed to properly assess the allowable deduction ... shall not recoup any assessment or cost of repayment through charges against employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "M.G.L. c. 175M, s. 11(a)(1)(xii) (private plans)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section11", + "quote": "providing that the cost to employees covered by a private plan shall not be greater than the cost charged to employees under the state program", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Acts 2026, c. 101, ss. 25-26, 43, 45 (approved June 12, 2026; emergency law)", + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2026/Chapter101", + "quote": "SECTION 45. Sections 7, 13 through 15, inclusive, 21, 25 and 26 ... shall apply for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Employers must contribute at least the minimum share of the contribution described below; however, they may choose to cover a larger share of the contribution for some or all of their employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Small employers are responsible for sending the funds withheld from covered individuals' wages but are under no obligation to contribute themselves. However, they may elect to cover some or all of the covered individuals' share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Employers with 25 or more covered individuals must send to DFML a contribution of 0.88% of eligible wages. This contribution can be split between covered individuals' payroll or wage withholdings and an employer contribution.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Up to 40% of the medical leave contribution can be withheld from a covered individual's wages (0.28% of eligible wages). Employers are responsible for contributing the remaining 60% (0.42% of eligible wages).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916051521id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "New Massachusetts legislation (Chapter 101 of the Acts of 2026) shifts employer contributions from medical leave to family leave, effective January 1, 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/pfml-workplace-poster-notices-and-rate-sheets-for-massachusetts-employers", + "quote": "Contribution rates for 2026. Employers are responsible for sending contributions to DFML for all employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Yes. M.G.L. c. 175M s. 6(c) sets only ceilings on what may be deducted (\"shall not deduct more than 40 per cent\"; \"may deduct not more than 100 per cent\"). 458 CMR 2.05(5)(c) covers an employer that \"opts to deduct a lower percentage\", and 2.05(5)(d) lets it deduct different percentages for different groups. DFML's rates page says employers \"may choose to cover a larger share\", and that small employers \"may elect to cover some or all\" of the employees' share.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.88% of eligible wages for employers with 25 or more covered individuals: family leave 0.18% plus medical leave 0.70%. Employers with fewer than 25 remit an effective 0.46%, which is the full family share (0.18%) plus 40% of medical (0.28%), under s. 6(d).", + "max_employee_share": "0.46% of eligible wages: 100% of the family rate (0.18%) plus 40% of the medical rate (0.28%). This is the same for large and small employers. It is a ceiling on what the employer may deduct, not a required employee payment. One caveat: Acts 2026 c. 101 s. 45 could be read as moving the split to 40% family / 100% medical (0.772%) for 2026. See caveats; DFML applies that change from 2027.", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$184,500, the 2026 Social Security contribution and benefit base, under s. 6(f) and 458 CMR 2.05(1)(c).", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110011839id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "published": "DFML rates page headed '2025 & 2026' (0.88%; 0.18% family; 0.70% medical; employee up to 0.18% + 0.28%). It shows 'Last updated: October 1, 2025' and was archived 2025-11-10 and again 2026-06-17 with the same 2026 split." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.mass.gov/info-details/pfml-workplace-poster-notices-and-rate-sheets-for-massachusetts-employers", + "published": "DFML 2026 rate sheets page, last updated November 3, 2025. I read the page but did not open the Word rate sheets." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "published": "SSA Federal Register notice 'Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026', published 2025-11-03: OASDI base of $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026. Fetched through the Federal Register API; ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html also shows $184,500." + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "published": "Statute setting the 40% medical and 100% family deduction caps, in force before 2026. Acts 2026 c. 101 (approved 2026-06-12) amends these caps; see caveats." + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The 0.88% total, the 0.18%/0.70% allocation and the $184,500 base were all published by November 2025. DFML's guidance as of 2026-06-17 still showed the old 40% medical / 100% family split for 2026. Acts 2026 c. 101 was also published before the cutoff (approved June 12, 2026), and its s. 45 literally applies the swapped split to taxable years beginning on or after Jan 1, 2026. DFML's statement that the swap takes effect Jan 1, 2027 came after the cutoff: the rates page shows 'Last updated: July 10, 2026' in a 2026-09-16 archive copy." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "engine_amount": 805.01, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 805.01, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Wages of $175,002 are below the $184,500 cap, so all of them are eligible. Maximum employee deduction under s. 6(c) before c. 101 and DFML 2026 guidance is 0.18% + 0.40 x 0.70% = 0.46%, and 175,002 x 0.0046 = 805.0092, or $805.01. The engine computes (family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 x medical_employee_share 0.4) x min(employment_income, SS cap 184,500), which gives the same $805.01. The law does not require this amount. It is the most the employer may deduct, and the true employee amount can be anywhere from $0 to $805.01 depending on the employer's choice. Under the literal reading of Acts 2026 c. 101 s. 45 (swapped caps applied to 2026, with 2026 rates unchanged), the maximum would be 0.40 x 0.18% + 1.00 x 0.70% = 0.772%, and 175,002 x 0.00772 = $1,351.02. For comparison, the full 0.88% that the employer remits would be $1,540.02." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "I read these files this session under policyengine_us 2.15.17. variables/gov/states/ma/tax/payroll/ma_employee_state_payroll_tax.py has label \"Massachusetts employee state payroll tax\" and documentation \"Employee-side Massachusetts PFML contributions.\" It is defined_for MA with adds = [\"ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution\"]. paid_leave/ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py has label \"Massachusetts employee paid leave contribution\" and documentation \"Employee-side Massachusetts Paid Family and Medical Leave contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.\" Its formula is (family_rate + medical_rate * medical_employee_share) * ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages, with no employer-size condition. paid_leave/ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages.py computes min_(max_(0, employment_income), gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap); the cap parameter is 184_500 for 2026, labeled \"Official SSA determination.\" paid_leave/ma_employer_paid_leave_contribution.py computes the employer side as medical_rate * (1 - medical_employee_share) * wages, applied only when employer_headcount >= employer_headcount_threshold (25). Parameters under parameters/gov/states/ma/tax/payroll/paid_leave/: family_rate 0.0018, medical_rate 0.007 and medical_employee_share 0.4, all from 2026-01-01 (0 before that), and employer_headcount_threshold 25 from 2026-01-01. Each cites M.G.L. c. 175M s. 6 and the mass.gov contribution-rates page. No parameter models Acts 2026 c. 101 or a 2027 split change. The employee formula applies the same 0.46% to small and large employers, which matches s. 6(d) and DFML for 2026.", + "caveats": [ + "The employee amount is chosen by the employer, not set by law. The law caps the deduction at 100% of family plus 40% of medical (0.46%) but sets no minimum. An employer may deduct less or nothing and still must remit the full contribution (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c); DFML rates page). The engine's figure is therefore an upper bound that relies on its stated assumption that the employer withholds the maximum.", + "Acts 2026 c. 101 ss. 25-26 (approved June 12, 2026, before the 2026-07-03 cutoff) swap the caps in s. 6: up to 100% of medical and up to 40% of family. Section 45 of the act says ss. 25 and 26 'shall apply for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026'. Section 43(a) of the same act describes the 'impact for employers and employees in calendar year 2027', and DFML says the change takes effect January 1, 2027, but DFML published that after the cutoff (page last updated July 10, 2026). The malegislature.gov General Laws text of s. 6 that I read on 2026-10-05 still shows the old 40/100 caps. Under the literal s. 45 reading with 2026 rates unchanged, the 2026 maximum employee share would be 0.772% ($1,351.02 for scenario_081), not 0.46%. I classify the swap as 2027 because the act's own s. 43(a), DFML, and the timing of the October 1 rate-setting under s. 7(e) all point to 2027, but the statute's text is ambiguous.", + "Employers with fewer than 25 employees (s. 6(d); 458 CMR 2.05(1)(d), counted by average total workforce including covered 1099 contract workers under 2.05(2)) owe no employer share. They still remit 0.46%, which they may deduct in full or pay themselves. The maximum employee share is still 0.46%.", + "Private and self-insured plans (s. 11; 458 CMR 2.07): employers with an approved exemption do not remit to the state fund. The plan may charge employees no more than the state program would (s. 11(a)(1)(xii)), so the employee cost could be anywhere from $0 up to the same ceiling.", + "Collective bargaining and group differences: an employer may deduct different percentages for different groups of covered individuals (458 CMR 2.05(5)(d)). DFML's examples include different bargaining units and full-time versus part-time staff.", + "Public employers: municipalities, districts, political subdivisions and authorities are covered only if they adopt c. 175M by vote (s. 10).", + "Self-employed people who elect coverage pay all contributions themselves (s. 6(b)). This is outside the benchmark's wage-earner scope.", + "Contributions stop at the SSA contribution and benefit base ($184,500 for 2026) per employer-employee relationship, under s. 6(f). The engine caps total employment_income at the SS cap rather than per employer. That makes no difference for single-employer scenario_081.", + "I read the agency pages through the Claude Browser pane and Wayback Machine copies because mass.gov returns 403 to WebFetch and curl. I read the 458 CMR text from the official mass.gov PDF by extracting it in the browser. That PDF is the version DFML labels 'Updated Jan. 6, 2023'." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "The engine's $805.01 is the most an employer may deduct from this employee, not an amount the employee must pay, so I classify MA PFML as an optional employer pass-through. The employer owes and must remit the full 0.88% contribution for 2026 (0.18% family plus 0.70% medical) on wages up to the $184,500 Social Security base (M.G.L. c. 175M ss. 6(a), 6(f), 7(d)). The employer may deduct from wages up to 100% of the family share and up to 40% of the medical share, a maximum of 0.46% (s. 6(c)). It may deduct less or nothing and remit the rest itself (458 CMR 2.05(5)(c)). DFML says employers \"may choose to cover a larger share.\" Employers with fewer than 25 employees owe no employer share but still remit 0.46%, which they may deduct in full or pay themselves. The engine's ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution computes (0.0018 + 0.007 x 0.4) x wages capped at the SS base, and its documentation says it assumes the employer withholds the maximum. For scenario_081, 175,002 x 0.0046 = $805.0092, so the engine exactly matches the legal maximum. Under the benchmark's prompt, \"mandatory employee state payroll taxes\", the legally mandatory employee amount is $0, unless one adopts the engine's assumption that the employer deducts the maximum. One flag on the cutoff rule: Acts 2026 c. 101 was approved June 12, 2026. It swaps the caps to 100% medical and 40% family, and its s. 45 literally applies that swap to taxable years beginning on or after Jan 1, 2026. DFML (after the cutoff) and the act's own s. 43 treat the swap as a 2027 change. If the literal 2026 reading held, the 2026 maximum would be 0.772% ($1,351.02)." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "(c)(1) For medical leave, an employer shall not deduct more than 40 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages and shall remit the full contribution required under said subsection (a) to the trust fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "(2) For family leave, an employer may deduct not more than 100 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages, and shall remit the full contribution required under subsection (a) to the trust fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "For each employee or covered contract worker, an employer or a covered business entity shall remit to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund established in section 7 contributions in the form and manner as determined by the department.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section7", + "quote": "employers, covered business entities and self-employed individuals shall, unless subject to provisions under section 11, make contributions as required under section 6 and transmit those contributions to the trust fund in the manner determined by the director.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section1", + "quote": "''Contributions'', the payments made by an employer, a covered business entity, an employee or a self-employed individual to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund, as required by this chapter.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section4", + "quote": "(ii) the employee's contribution amount and obligations under this chapter; (iii) the employer's contribution amount and obligations under this chapter;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section8", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that fails or refuses to make contributions as required in section 6 shall be assessed an amount equal to its total annual payroll", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section11", + "quote": "(xii) providing that the cost to employees covered by a private plan shall not be greater than the cost charged to employees under the state program.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2026/Chapter101", + "quote": "SECTION 45. Sections 7, 13 through 15, inclusive, 21, 25 and 26, and subsection (kk) of section 6 of chapter 62 ... shall apply for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2026/Chapter101", + "quote": "shall provide guidance related to the changes in sections 25 and 26 and the impact for employers and employees in calendar year 2027", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "The employer or covered business entity in all instances shall be responsible for paying and remitting the remainder of any required contribution not lawfully deducted from the employee or covered contract worker.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that opts to deduct a lower percentage of medical or family leave contributions than the maximum allowable deductions specified in 458 CMR 2.05(5)(a) and (b) shall still be required to remit the full amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "To do this, employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Employers must contribute at least the minimum share of the contribution described below; however, they may choose to cover a larger share of the contribution for some or all of their employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110011839id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Up to 40% of the medical leave contribution can be withheld from a covered individual's wages (0.28% of eligible wages). Employers are responsible for contributing the remaining 60% (0.42% of eligible wages).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916051521id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "New Massachusetts legislation ( Chapter 101 of the Acts of 2026 ) shifts employer contributions from medical leave to family leave, effective January 1, 2027 .", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260825031701id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/pfml-workplace-poster-notices-and-rate-sheets-for-massachusetts-employers", + "quote": "Contribution rates for 2025 and 2026. Employers are responsible for sending contributions to DFML for all employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/ma/tax/payroll/paid_leave/ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py", + "quote": "assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None in the scenario_081 arithmetic. I recomputed 175,002 x (0.0018 + 0.007 x 0.4) = 805.0092, or $805.01. Wages are below the $184,500 base, which I confirmed in the 2025-11-03 Federal Register notice. The engine parameters I read are family_rate 0.0018, medical_rate 0.007 and medical_employee_share 0.4 from 2026-01-01, and SS cap 184_500 for 2026. The two alternatives also check: $1,351.02 under the literal c.101 reading (0.4 x 0.18% + 0.70%) and $1,540.02 at the full 0.88%.", + "Rate timing is confirmed. DFML's 2026 split (0.88% total = 0.18% family + 0.70% medical; employee up to 0.18% + 0.28%) appears in the 2025-11-10 Wayback capture of the rates page, which shows 'Last updated: October 1, 2025'. So it was published before the 2026-07-03 cutoff.", + "A nuance in the research's literal 2026 reading of Acts 2026 c.101. Sections 25 and 26 both amend 'line 33' of s.6. The current s.6 text has exactly three '40's (6(c)(1), 6(d), 6(e)(1)) and three '100's (6(c)(2), 6(d), 6(e)(2)), and only 6(d) contains both, so line 33 must be 6(d). Read sequentially and literally, s.25 turns 6(d)'s '40' into '100', and s.26 then strikes '100' 'each time it appears' on that line. That would give small employers 40%/40%, not a swap. The intended reading is clearly a swap. This affects only the alternative literal-2026 reading for employers with fewer than 25 employees, not the classification or the $805.01 check.", + "The malegislature.gov General Laws text of s.6, as I read it on 2026-10-05, still shows the pre-c.101 caps (40% medical, 100% family). That is a lag in the website's codification, not evidence of what the law says. Chapter 101 carries an emergency preamble and was 'Approved, June 12, 2026'." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "The poster/rate-sheets page quote 'Contribution rates for 2026. Employers are responsible for sending contributions to DFML for all employees.' could not be confirmed verbatim. The 2026-08-25 Wayback capture I read says 'Contribution rates for 2025 and 2026.' The live page returns 403, and the browser pane refused to navigate to mass.gov, so the live wording may differ. 'Last updated: November 3, 2025' does match.", + "The live mass.gov URLs cited as fetched (the rates page and the 458 CMR 2 PDF) returned HTTP 403 to WebFetch and curl in this session. I confirmed every quote attributed to them only through Wayback captures of the same URLs: the rates page as captured 2025-11-10, 2026-06-17 and 2026-09-16, and the PDF as captured 2025-09-01 (PDF metadata subject 'Mass. Register #1486, 1/06/2023'). The two quotes credited to the live rates page ('Employers must contribute at least the minimum share...' and 'Small employers are responsible for sending the funds withheld...') appear verbatim in all three rates-page captures.", + "This is a selective quotation, not a misquotation. The research quotes the DFML rates-page Overview but leaves out the sentence just before its quote: 'To do this, employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks.' That sentence appears in the 2025-11-10, 2026-06-17 and 2026-09-16 captures, and it is the strongest agency language pointing toward mandatory withholding. It should have been disclosed and addressed.", + "Two parts of the research's own analysis also go unaddressed. The definition of 'Contributions' in c.175M s.1 expressly includes payments made by 'an employee', and s.4(a)(ii) requires the employer to give each employee written notice of 'the employee's contribution amount and obligations under this chapter'. The research does not mention either. Neither makes a deduction mandatory, but both are relevant counter-evidence.", + "Every statutory quote in operative_text is verbatim at the cited malegislature.gov URLs: s.6(a), (c)(1), (c)(2), (d) as truncated, (f) with its ellipsis, s.7(d) and s.11(a)(1)(xii). So are the Acts 2026 c.101 s.45 quote (the ellipsis covers the c.62/c.63 cross-references) and the 458 CMR 2.05(5), (5)(c), (5)(d) and (7) quotes." + ], + "reasoning": "STATUTE LENS. I downloaded and read all eleven sections of M.G.L. c.175M from malegislature.gov. I searched every section for deduct, withh, 'employee shall', 'employees shall', payroll and contribut. No section says an employer 'shall deduct' or 'shall withhold', and none makes the employee liable to the fund. The only operative text on the employee portion is a set of ceilings. Section 6(c)(1) says an employer 'shall not deduct more than 40 per cent' of the medical contribution, and 6(c)(2) says it 'may deduct not more than 100 per cent' of the family contribution. Both add that the employer 'shall remit the full contribution'. Every liability provision names the employer side. Section 6(a) says the employer or covered business entity 'shall remit'. Section 7(d) lists who 'make contributions' as employers, covered business entities and self-employed individuals, and employees are left out. Section 8(g) assesses the employer that 'fails or refuses to make contributions', treats contributions as taxes under c.62C, and treats them as debts. Section 6(d) relieves small employers of the 'employer portion' but says they 'shall remit' 100% of family and 40% of medical. It does not require them to deduct those amounts. The only person the statute makes pay their own contributions is an electing self-employed individual (6(b)).\n\nREGULATION. 458 CMR 2.05(5), which I read in a Wayback capture of the official mass.gov PDF (the live URL returns 403), says the employer 'may deduct up to certain defined percentages'. It defines the employer's portion as the part 'not deducted from wages'. It makes the employer 'in all instances' responsible for the remainder. Subsection (5)(c) expressly covers an employer that 'opts to deduct a lower percentage' and still requires it to remit the full amount. Subsection (5)(d) allows different percentages for different groups. Subsection (7) bars an employer that 'failed to properly assess the allowable deduction' from recouping assessments from employees. Cornell LII, a secondary source, shows 2.05 was last amended in 2020, and I found no later amendment requiring deductions.\n\nCOUNTER-EVIDENCE CONSIDERED. Four things point the other way. The s.1 definition of 'Contributions' includes payments by 'an employee'. Section 4(a)(ii) requires notice of 'the employee's contribution amount and obligations'. The DFML Overview, in every capture from November 2025 to September 2026, says 'employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks'. And Acts 2026 c.101 s.43 refers to 'tax burdens on employees'. These show that the law contemplates an employee contribution when the employer chooses to deduct one. None of them imposes a minimum deduction. The DFML sentence is non-binding summary language, and the same paragraph says employers 'may choose to cover a larger share... for some or all of their employees'. The same page tells small employers they 'may elect to cover some or all of the covered individuals' share'. Statute and regulation control, and both are permissive with a ceiling and no floor. The research's classification therefore holds. It should, however, have disclosed the 'must withhold' sentence and the s.1/s.4 language.\n\nENGINE. In the installed policyengine_us 2.15.17 source, I read ma_employee_state_payroll_tax.py (adds ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution), ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py ((family_rate + medical_rate * medical_employee_share) * ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages, with the documented assumption that the employer withholds the maximum), ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages.py (employment_income capped at the SS cap), ma_employer_paid_leave_contribution.py (headcount-gated employer side), the four paid_leave parameter YAMLs, and the SS cap of 184_500 for 2026. All match the research's description. $805.01 is the legal maximum the employer may deduct for scenario_081. The legally mandatory employee amount is $0.\n\nACTS 2026 c.101. I confirmed it was 'Approved, June 12, 2026', with an emergency preamble. Sections 25 and 26 swap the 40 and 100 figures in s.6. Section 43(a) refers to impacts in calendar year 2027. Section 45 applies ss.25-26 to 'taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026'. DFML's July 10, 2026 update (after the cutoff) says the change is effective January 1, 2027. Even under the swap, the provisions remain caps on what 'may' or 'shall not' be deducted, so the classification is the same for 2026 or 2027. Only the maximum amount changes." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "(c)(1) For medical leave, an employer shall not deduct more than 40 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages and shall remit the full contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "(2) For family leave, an employer may deduct not more than 100 per cent of the contribution required for an employee by subsection (a) from that employee's wages, and shall remit the full contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "an employer employing less than 25 employees in the commonwealth shall not be required to pay the employer portion of premiums for family and medical leave; provided, however, that such employer shall remit, for each employee, 100 per cent of the family leave contribution and 40 per cent", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section6", + "quote": "(a) For each employee or covered contract worker, an employer or a covered business entity shall remit to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund established in section 7 contributions", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section7", + "quote": "employers, covered business entities and self-employed individuals shall, unless subject to provisions under section 11, make contributions as required under section 6 and transmit those contributions to the trust fund", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section11", + "quote": "providing that the cost to employees covered by a private plan shall not be greater than the cost charged to employees under the state program", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/GeneralLaws/PartI/TitleXXII/Chapter175M/Section4", + "quote": "(ii) the employee's contribution amount and obligations under this chapter; (iii) the employer's contribution amount and obligations under this chapter", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "The employer or covered business entity in all instances shall be responsible for paying and remitting the remainder of any required contribution not lawfully deducted from the employee or covered contract worker.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that opts to deduct a lower percentage of medical or family leave contributions than the maximum allowable deductions specified in 458 CMR 2.05(5)(a) and (b) shall still be required to remit the full amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "An employer or covered business entity that failed to properly assess the allowable deduction ... shall not recoup any assessment or cost of repayment through charges against employees or covered individual.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250901025442id_/https://www.mass.gov/doc/458-cmr-2-family-and-medical-leave/download", + "quote": "Contributions are the payments made to the Family and Employment Security Trust Fund established in M.G.L. c. 175M, \u00a7 7 by an employer, a covered business entity, an employee, a covered contract worker, or a self-employed individual electing coverage.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "To do this, employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks. Employers are only required to send an employer contribution if they have 25 or more covered individuals in their workforce.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Employers must contribute at least the minimum share of the contribution described below; however, they may choose to cover a larger share of the contribution for some or all of their employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Small employers are responsible for sending the funds withheld from covered individuals' wages but are under no obligation to contribute themselves. However, they may elect to cover some or all of the covered individuals' share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260617060228id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "Up to 40% of the medical leave contribution can be withheld from a covered individual's wages (0.28% of eligible wages). Employers are responsible for contributing the remaining 60% (0.42% of eligible wages).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110011839id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "2025 & 2026 ... Employers with 25 or more covered individuals must send to DFML a contribution of 0.88% of eligible wages ... Last updated: October 1, 2025", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260916051521id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/paid-family-and-medical-leave-employer-contribution-rates-and-calculator", + "quote": "New Massachusetts legislation (Chapter 101 of the Acts of 2026) shifts employer contributions from medical leave to family leave, effective January 1, 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2026/Chapter101", + "quote": "SECTION 45. Sections 7, 13 through 15, inclusive, 21, 25 and 26 ... shall apply for taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://malegislature.gov/Laws/SessionLaws/Acts/2026/Chapter101", + "quote": "shall provide guidance related to the changes in sections 25 and 26 and the impact for employers and employees in calendar year 2027", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251127060920id_/https://www.mass.gov/info-details/pfml-workplace-poster-notices-and-rate-sheets-for-massachusetts-employers", + "quote": "Contribution rates for 2025 and 2026. Employers are responsible for sending contributions to DFML for all employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base will be $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026 and self-employment income earned in tax years beginning in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/massachusetts/department-458-CMR/title-458-CMR-2.00", + "quote": "Amended by Mass Register Issue 1486, effective 1/6/2023 (secondary source, used only to confirm no later amendment of 458 CMR 2.00)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None for the engine amount. I read policyengine_us 2.15.17 myself. ma_employee_paid_leave_contribution = (family_rate 0.0018 + medical_rate 0.007 * medical_employee_share 0.4) * ma_paid_leave_taxable_wages, and taxable wages = min(max(0, employment_income), SS cap 184,500 for 2026). 175,002 x 0.0046 = 805.0092, which rounds to $805.01 and matches the engine. Wages are below the $184,500 base, so the cap does not bind.", + "The 2026 rates are confirmed. DFML's rates page is headed '2025 & 2026' and says 'Last updated: October 1, 2025' (Wayback copy of 2025-11-10). It gives 0.88% in total: 0.18% family, plus 0.70% medical implied by the 0.28%/0.42% split. Up to 0.18% + 0.28% = 0.46% may be withheld from the employee. The 2026-06-17 copy has the same text, apart from whitespace. The $184,500 base is in the Federal Register of 2025-11-03. All of these were published before 2026-07-03.", + "Small detail on the literal reading of Acts 2026 c. 101 s. 45: s. 25 replaces '40' with 100 and s. 26 replaces '100' with 40 in s. 6(c), 6(d) and 6(e). So the literal 2026 reading would also change what small employers must remit, to 40% of family plus 100% of medical (0.772%), not just the large-employer maximum deduction. The other researcher's 0.772% / $1,351.02 figure (175,002 x 0.00772 = 1,351.02) is correct arithmetic. The full 0.88% would be $1,540.02.", + "The DFML rates page itself shows a 0.46% employee maximum for both large and small employers. The small-employer section lists 'Up to 100% of the medical leave contribution' as 0.28%, because only 40% of medical is owed. This matches the engine applying 0.46% regardless of employer size." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "DFML rate-sheets page: the other researcher quoted 'Contribution rates for 2026. Employers are responsible for sending contributions to DFML for all employees.' and dated the page 'last updated November 3, 2025'. The Wayback copy I read (captured 2025-11-27, 'Last updated: November 3, 2025') says 'Contribution rates for 2025 and 2026.' The second sentence matches. The first sentence may come from a later live version that I could not reach, since mass.gov returns 403 to WebFetch and curl and the Browser pane refused navigation. This does not affect the classification.", + "I could not fetch the live mass.gov copy of 458 CMR 2 (403). I verified every 458 CMR 2.05 quote against the Wayback copy of the same URL (captured 2025-09-01). Its PDF metadata reads 'Mass. Register #1486, 1/06/2023'. Cornell LII lists no amendment after 1/6/2023. All of the other researcher's 2.05(5), (5)(c), (5)(d) and (7) quotes match that text verbatim.", + "The other researcher left two things out of the agency guidance: DFML's overview sentence 'employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks', and the page subtitle 'Most Massachusetts employers must make payroll withholdings'. These are the strongest 'must' language the agency uses. They should have been disclosed, though they do not overturn the classification (see reasoning).", + "I did not open the 2026 Word rate sheets or the 2026 employer notices. The Wayback availability API was rate-limiting me (HTTP 429)." + ], + "reasoning": "I tried to refute the classification through the administration lens and could not. Every operative quote the other researcher gave matches what I read in the primary sources: c. 175M ss. 6(a), 6(c)(1), 6(c)(2), 6(d), 6(f), 7(d) and 11(a)(1)(xii) on malegislature.gov, 458 CMR 2.05(5), (5)(c), (5)(d) and (7) in the official PDF via Wayback, and Acts 2026 c. 101 s. 45.\n\nWho is liable: the statute puts the remittance duty on the employer ('shall remit', s. 6(a); 'make contributions', s. 7(d)). On the employee share, the law sets only ceilings: 'shall not deduct more than 40 per cent' for medical and 'may deduct not more than 100 per cent' for family. It never orders a deduction. 458 CMR 2.05(5) defines the employer's portion as whatever is not deducted, and says the employer 'in all instances' pays the remainder. 2.05(5)(c) expressly covers an employer that 'opts to deduct a lower percentage' and still requires full remittance. 2.05(5)(d) allows different percentages for different groups. 2.05(7) bars an employer that failed to assess the deduction from recouping it from employees. That is the opposite of employee liability. No provision I read makes the employee liable to the state if nothing is deducted.\n\nThe counterpoints are textual only. 458 CMR 2.05(1)(a) lists 'an employee' among those who make contributions. s. 4(a) requires notice of 'the employee's contribution amount'. DFML's overview says 'employers must withhold PFML contributions from employees' paychecks'. These show that the program expects an employee share, but none of them sets a mandatory amount. The same DFML page then says employers 'may choose to cover a larger share of the contribution for some or all of their employees', and that small employers 'may elect to cover some or all of the covered individuals' share'. The binding regulation uses 'may deduct' and 'opts to deduct a lower percentage'. The 'must withhold' overview line is loose summary prose, contradicted by the page's own detailed text and by the regulation. So the employee share is an optional pass-through capped at 0.46% in 2026, with a legally mandatory employee amount of $0.\n\nEngine: I read the engine source this session. It documents 'assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share' and computes 0.46% x min(employment_income, 184,500). For scenario_081 that gives $805.01, the legal maximum, not a required amount.\n\nRate timing: the 0.88% rate, the 0.18%/0.70% split, the 40%/100% deduction caps and the $184,500 base were all published by November 2025. Acts 2026 c. 101 (approved June 12, 2026, an emergency law) swaps the caps. Its s. 45 literally applies ss. 25-26 to 'taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2026', while its s. 43(a) refers to 'calendar year 2027'. DFML's statement that the swap takes effect January 1, 2027 is on a page last updated July 10, 2026, after the 2026-07-03 cutoff. The other researcher disclosed this ambiguity correctly. Either way, the swap changes only the cap, not the optional nature of the deduction.\n\nClassification confirmed: optional_employer_pass_through. refuted=false. The minor issues are a rate-sheet quote I could not match to the version I read, and the omission of DFML's 'must withhold' overview sentence." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "NY", + "research": { + "program": "New York Disability Benefits Law (DBL) and Paid Family Leave (PFL) employee contributions (Workers' Compensation Law Article 9)", + "state": "NY", + "engine_variables": [ + "ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution", + "ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution", + "ny_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "ny_paid_family_leave_taxable_wages", + "ny_disability_benefits_taxable_wages", + "employee_state_payroll_tax" + ], + "premium_liability": "The covered employer carries the liability. Under WCL s.211, a covered employer \"shall, with his or her own contributions and the contributions of his employees, provide\" DBL and PFL benefits. It does so by insuring with the State Insurance Fund or a private carrier, by self-insuring, or through a Board-accepted plan. The premium is owed by the employer to its carrier; it is not a contribution paid to the state. Under WCL s.210(1), the employer pays the DBL cost \"in excess of the contributions collected from his or her employees\". So if the employer collects nothing, the employer bears the whole cost. Employees owe nothing directly to the state or the carrier. Any employee money reaches the premium only through employer payroll deductions, which WCL s.209(4) authorizes but does not require. When the employer deducts, it acts as the employees' agent (WCL s.209(5)). For PFL, the employer must return any surplus over the premium (12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(3)). Penalties for failing to provide coverage fall on the employer (12 NYCRR 380-7.2(d)).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "NY Workers' Compensation Law s.209(1)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "Every employee in the employment of a covered employer shall contribute to the cost of providing disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits under this article, to the extent and in the manner herein provided.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209(3)(a) (DBL employee contribution)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "The contribution of each such employee to the cost of disability benefits ... shall be one-half of one per centum of the employee's wages ... but not in excess of sixty cents per week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209(3)(b) (PFL maximum employee contribution set by DFS)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "On June first, two thousand seventeen and annually thereafter on September first, the superintendent of financial services shall set the maximum employee contribution ... No employer shall be required to fund any portion of the family leave benefit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209(4) (employer authorized, not required, to collect via payroll deduction)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the employer is authorized to collect from his or her employees, except as otherwise provided in any plan or agreement under ... section two hundred eleven of this article, the contribution ... through payroll deductions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209(4), second sentence (late collection window)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "If the employer shall not make deduction for any payroll period he or she may thereafter, but not later than one month after payment of wages, collect such contribution through payroll deduction.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209(5) (employer acts as employees' agent)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "In collecting employee contributions through payroll deductions, the employer shall act as the agent of his or her employees and shall use the contributions only to provide disability and family leave benefits as required by this article.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209 (PFL contribution ceiling: per capita share of actual premium)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "In no event may the employee's annual contribution for family leave exceed his or her per capita share of the actual annual premium charged for the same year and must be determined consistent with the principle that employees should pay ...", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.209 (DBL ceiling restated)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "In no event may the employee's weekly contribution for disability premium exceed one-half of one per centum of the employee's wages paid to him or her, but not in excess of sixty cents per week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.210(1) (employer pays the cost beyond what it collects)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/210", + "quote": "Every covered employer shall, on and after January first, nineteen hundred fifty, contribute the cost of providing disability benefits in excess of the contributions collected from his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.211 lead-in (employer must provide benefits)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "A covered employer shall, with his or her own contributions and the contributions of his employees, provide disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits to his or her employees ...", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.211(4)-(5) (Board-accepted plans and collective agreements)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "does not require contributions of any employee or of any class or classes of employees in excess of the statutory amount provided in section two hundred nine of this article...except by agreement", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.201(4) (public employers excluded from 'employer')", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/201", + "quote": "but does not include the state, a municipal corporation, local governmental agency, other political subdivisions or public authority.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "NY WCL s.202(1) (covered employer: one or more employees on at least 30 days)", + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/202", + "quote": "An employer who has in employment, after June thirtieth, nineteen hundred sixty-one, one or more", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(1) (PFL: employer 'may deduct'); read via Cornell LII copy because govt.westlaw.com could not be fetched", + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "A covered employer may deduct employee contributions prior to the effective date of the policy and prior to an employee's eligibility for paid family leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "12 NYCRR 380-7.2(c) (weekly maximum; limit on catch-up withholding); via Cornell LII copy", + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "The weekly contribution from an employee is the maximum per week that can be withheld. ... an employer's failure to withhold may not be recovered by withholding larger than the maximum employee contribution at a later date.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(3) (surplus returned to employees); via Cornell LII copy", + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "A covered employer shall use his or her employees' contributions to provide PFL benefits to employees and shall promptly return to employees any surplus in employee contributions that exceed the annual premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employer-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "An employer is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions from its employees to offset the cost of providing disability and Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employer-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "However, any employee who is receiving or is entitled to receive old age insurance benefits under title two of the social security act, shall be exempt upon filing Form DB130 with the employer and the chair.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employer-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "Paid Family Leave coverage can only be waived if the employee is regularly scheduled for less than 20 hours per week and will not work 175 days in a year, or ...", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employee-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "Your employer is allowed, but not required, to take a contribution from you to offset the cost of providing disability benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost", + "quote": "An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The maximum employee contribution is the maximum amount a covered employer is authorized to collect from each of its employees to fund Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The 2026 PFL rate will be set at 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period up to and not to exceed an annual maximum employee contribution of $411.91.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/PFLDocs/pfl-pay-deduction-notice-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The 2026 payroll contribution is 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period and is capped at an annual maximum of $411.91.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/PressRe/paid-family-leave-2026.jsp", + "quote": "NYS Paid Family Leave is insurance, fully paid for by employees, that provides job-protected, paid time off care for family in times of need.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026", + "quote": "New York State Paid Family Leave is insurance that may be funded by employees through payroll deductions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/TheBoard/disability-benefits-fact-sheet.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may collect a contribution from its employees to offset the disability benefits insurance premium. The contribution is up to one-half of one percent of wages, up to 60 cents a week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/db271s.pdf", + "quote": "Employers may collect a maximum contribution of 60 cents/week to offset the insurance premium (unless the additional contribution is part of an approved plan).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employee-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "There are some accepted disability benefits plans under which you are required to contribute more than 60 cents per week, but only by agreement and provided your contributions are reasonably related to the value of the benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Yes, for both programs. Under the statute, WCL s.209(4) \"authorizes\" the employer to collect but does not require it, and WCL s.210(1) has the employer pay the cost \"in excess of the contributions collected\". For PFL, s.209(3)(b) says \"No employer shall be required to fund any portion\" of the benefit, which bars a mandate but does not bar voluntary funding. For PFL, 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(1) says a covered employer \"may deduct\". Agency guidance is explicit. The WCB employer DB/PFL page says the employer \"is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions\" for both DBL and PFL. paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost says \"An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.\" DFS calls the 2026 maximum the most an employer is \"authorized to collect\".", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "PFL: the DFS premium rate for 2026 coverage is 0.432% of each employee's wages per pay period (a +11.31% increase over 2025). DFS sets it so that employee contributions can cover the full PFL premium. DBL: no statutory total rate. The carrier sets the premium for each employer, the employee share is fixed by statute, and the employer pays the balance (WCL s.210).", + "max_employee_share": "PFL: 0.432% of wages per pay period, capped at $411.91 a year (DFS decision of Aug 29, 2025). PFL contributions also cannot exceed the employee's per capita share of the actual annual premium (WCL s.209). DBL: 0.5% of wages, capped at $0.60 a week (WCL s.209(3)(a)). That is $31.20 over 52 weekly pay periods; in a year with 53 weekly paydays it could reach $31.80. More is allowed only by agreement under a Board-accepted plan (s.211(4)-(5)).", + "wage_base_or_cap": "PFL: the $411.91 cap equals 0.432% of the 2026 NYSAWW of $1,833.63 a week times 52, which is $95,348.76 a year (0.00432 x 95,348.76 = $411.9066, rounding to $411.91). The WCB press release calls $411.91 '0.432% of the NYSAWW'. DBL: the $0.60 weekly cap binds once weekly wages reach $120 (0.005 x 120 = 0.60). There is no annual wage base; the cap is weekly.", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "published": "2025-08-29 (decision line reads 'Dated: August 29, 2025')" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/PFLDocs/pfl-pay-deduction-notice-2026.pdf", + "published": "PDF created 2025-09-03, modified 2025-09-05 (form code PFL-PayDeduction-notice-2026 9-25)" + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/PressRe/paid-family-leave-2026.jsp", + "published": "2025-10-30 (date on the press release)" + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026", + "published": "no date on the page; read 2026-10-05" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "published": "DBL $0.60 a week / 0.5% has been in the statute since 1950. The NY Senate page shows the section text as last updated April 8, 2016 and still current when read on 2026-10-05." + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The 2026 PFL rate and cap were published by DFS on 2025-08-29 and in WCB materials in September and October 2025. The DBL rate and cap are long-standing statute (s.209(3)(a)) and were unchanged in the text read on 2026-10-05." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082 (PFL)", + "engine_amount": 411.91, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 411.91, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Law maximum: 0.432% of wages each pay period until the $411.91 annual cap. Uncapped: 0.00432 x 100,195 = $432.84, which exceeds $411.91, so the maximum is $411.91. Because the cap is cumulative over the year, the per-pay-period rule gives the same annual total as the engine's min(0.00432 x annual wages, 411.91). Engine re-run this session (2026, NY, $100,195 wages) returned 411.91. The engine does not compute a SAWW cap; it applies the $411.91 parameter directly. The task's '$95,350.72' figure does not appear in the engine source or the agency sources I read. 1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76, and either figure rounds to roughly $411.91. This is the law's MAXIMUM. The law's minimum employee share is $0 if the employer chooses not to deduct." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082 (DBL)", + "engine_amount": 31.2, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 31.2, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Weekly wages are about 100,195 / 52 = $1,926.83. 0.5% of that is $9.63, above the $0.60 cap, so the cap binds every week: 52 x $0.60 = $31.20. Engine: min(0.005 x 100,195 = $500.98, 31.20) = $31.20; the re-run returned 31.2. With 53 weekly paydays (for example a Thursday payroll in 2026) the law maximum would be $31.80, still within $1. This is the law's MAXIMUM; the minimum is $0 if the employer does not deduct." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_082 (NY total, ny_employee_state_payroll_tax)", + "engine_amount": 443.11, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 443.11, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$411.91 + $31.20 = $443.11. Engine re-run returned 443.11002. The match holds only under the assumption that the employer deducts the maximum permitted for both programs. Under NY law the amount anywhere from $0 to $443.11 (or more under an agreed plan) is consistent with the facts the prompt gives." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "I read these files this session under policyengine_us 2.15.17.\n\n**Variables:**\n- `ny_employee_paid_family_leave_contribution`: label \"New York employee paid family leave contribution\"; documentation \"Employee-side New York Paid Family Leave contribution.\" The formula is min(employee_rate x ny_paid_family_leave_taxable_wages, annual_max_contribution).\n- `ny_employee_disability_benefits_contribution`: documentation \"Employee-side New York Disability Benefits withholding, annualized from the statutory weekly cap.\" The formula is min(employee_rate x ny_disability_benefits_taxable_wages, annual_max_contribution).\n- Both taxable-wage variables equal max(0, employment_income). Their documentation says they include \"federal pre-tax payroll deductions\".\n- `ny_employee_state_payroll_tax` adds the two contributions. Its documentation is \"Employee-side New York payroll-funded contributions, including Paid Family Leave and Disability Benefits withholding.\"\n- `ny_employee_state_payroll_tax` is listed in `EMPLOYEE_STATE_PAYROLL_TAX_COMPONENTS`, which `employee_state_payroll_tax` adds up (variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py). That variable's documentation reads \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.\"\n\n**Parameters:**\n- PFL `employee_rate`: 0 from 0000-01-01, 0.00432 from 2026-01-01.\n- PFL `annual_max_contribution`: 0 from 0000-01-01, 411.91 from 2026-01-01.\n- The PFL parameters cite WCL s.209 and the WCB 2026 PFL payroll deduction notice PDF.\n- DBL `employee_rate`: 0.005 from 0000-01-01.\n- DBL `annual_max_contribution`: 31.2 from 0000-01-01.\n- The DBL parameters cite WCL s.209 and the WCB employee disability benefits page.\n\n**What the NY files do not model:**\n- No NY file states an assumption that the employer withholds the maximum (grep for 'assum' and 'maximum permitted' found nothing).\n- No file models employer choice, plan or collective-agreement contributions, public-employer exclusion, waivers, the DB-130 exemption, or proration across multiple employers.\n\n**Test:** tests/core/test_payroll_contributions.py has an NY case expecting PFL 411.91, DBL 31.2 and a total of 443.11.\n\nI did not read the Minnesota variable.", + "caveats": [ + "Classification is the same for PFL and DBL: both are optional employer pass-throughs. The difference is in default design. PFL is designed to be paid entirely by employees: s.209(3)(b) bars requiring employers to fund it, and DFS sets the rate to cover the full premium. DBL is cost-shared: the employee pays at most 0.5% up to $0.60 a week and the employer pays the rest (s.210). For both, collection is at the employer's discretion: s.209(4) 'authorized', and WCB says 'allowed, but not required'.", + "Textual tension. WCL s.209(1) says every employee 'shall contribute ... to the extent and in the manner herein provided'. The DFS 2026 decision says 'Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision'. The WCB press release calls PFL 'fully paid for by employees'. The operative mechanism, however, is permissive: s.209(4) 'is authorized to collect' and 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(1) 'may deduct'. The WCB employer page explicitly says collection is 'allowed, but not required'. I read 'shall collect consistent with this Decision' as limiting how much may be collected, not as a mandate to collect.", + "Benchmark implication. The prompt defines payroll_tax to include 'mandatory employee state payroll taxes'. Under NY law, the DBL and PFL employee contributions are not mandatory withholdings. The engine's $443.11 is the maximum an employer may collect, so it is correct only if one assumes the employer deducts the maximum, and the prompt does not state that assumption. The NY engine files do not state it either. The cross-state aggregator documentation labels these contributions 'mandatory', which conflicts with the NY primary sources above.", + "Board-accepted plans and collective bargaining agreements (WCL s.211(4)-(5)): employer and employee obligations follow the plan or agreement. Employee contributions may exceed the statutory amounts only 'by agreement' and when reasonably related to the value of the benefits. Such a plan may also require less or nothing. s.209(4) defers to these plans.", + "Self-insured employers (s.211(3)) and employers insured through the State Insurance Fund or private carriers: the choice of funding method does not change the discretionary nature of employee deductions.", + "Public employers: WCL s.201(4) excludes the state, municipal corporations, local governmental agencies, other political subdivisions and public authorities from 'employer'. Public-sector workers therefore have no DBL or PFL deduction unless coverage is extended another way. The PFL site says requirements for other employer types differ; I did not fetch the public-employer opt-in provisions. The prompt does not say whether the employer is public or private.", + "Small employers: there is no small-employer exemption. Per s.202, which I read in summary plus a short quote, a private employer with one or more employees on each of at least 30 days in a calendar year is covered. Domestic or personal employers in a private home are covered only for workers who meet an hours threshold (about 20 hours a week, per the fetched summary).", + "Employee-level exemptions and waivers reduce or eliminate the deduction:", + "- DBL: an employee receiving or entitled to Social Security old-age benefits may be exempt by filing Form DB-130 (WCB employer page).", + "- PFL: may be waived by employees who are regularly scheduled under 20 hours a week and will not work 175 days in a year, or who work 20+ hours but won't be employed 26 consecutive weeks.", + "- s.201(5) excludes some categories of worker from 'employee', for example clergy, an executive officer who owns all of a corporation's stock, and certain professional or teaching roles at religious, charitable or educational institutions.", + "Multiple jobs (DBL): combined contributions across jobs may not exceed $0.60 a week, and the employee may ask the employers to prorate (WCB pages). The engine does not model this.", + "The DBL cap is weekly, not annual. The engine's annual min(0.5% x annual wages, $31.20) can differ from the law's maximum for workers with uneven weekly wages, for example some weeks under $120. It can also differ in years with 53 weekly paydays (law maximum $31.80). Neither difference matters for scenario_082.", + "Two further limits on PFL: the employee's contribution may not exceed the per capita share of the actual annual premium (s.209), and employers must refund any surplus over the premium (12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(3)).", + "Catch-up deductions: s.209(4) lets an employer that skipped a deduction collect it within one month after paying the wages. 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(c) bars recovering missed PFL withholding by later withholding above the weekly maximum.", + "Source limits:", + "- 12 NYCRR 380-7.2 was read through the Cornell LII copy, because the official govt.westlaw.com NYCRR site could not be fetched. LII's source note says the section was adopted in the NY State Register on July 19, 2017.", + "- The WCL text was read through WebFetch of nysenate.gov, because direct curl hit a Cloudflare challenge. Quotes are verbatim as returned by targeted extraction prompts.", + "- Agency pages and PDFs were checked verbatim with curl and text extraction.", + "The paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost page, which holds the 'employer may choose to pay' sentence, still shows 2025 figures ($354.53, NYSAWW $1,757.19), so it is out of date. Its 'may choose to pay' statement agrees with the WCB employer page and the statute.", + "A secondary bill tracker (billtrack50, NY A00084) describes a proposal to raise the DBL employee contribution from 2027. I did not verify it against a primary source, and it would not affect 2026 in any case." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "The employee shares the engine counts for both NY DBL and NY PFL are optional employer pass-throughs, not mandatory withholdings.\n\n**Who owes the cost.** The covered employer must provide the coverage by insuring with the State Insurance Fund or a private carrier, self-insuring, or using a Board-accepted plan (WCL s.211), and it owes the premium to its carrier.\n\n**Employee share.** WCL s.209(4) \"authorizes\" the employer to collect the employee share by payroll deduction. Agency guidance says this directly: the WCB employer page says the employer \"is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions\" for both programs, and paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost says \"An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.\" For DBL, the employer pays whatever it does not collect (s.210). The 2026 caps an employer may collect are:\n- **PFL:** 0.432% of wages per pay period, up to $411.91 a year (DFS decision dated Aug 29, 2025; equal to 0.432% x NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52).\n- **DBL:** 0.5% of wages, up to $0.60 a week (statutory since 1950).\n\n**Engine check.** For scenario_082 ($100,195 wages) the engine gives PFL $411.91 and DBL $31.20, a total of $443.11. I re-ran it this session and got the same figures, which exactly equal the law's maximum employee shares. So the match holds only if the employer deducts the maximum, an assumption the NY engine files do not state. The engine's cross-state aggregator also calls these contributions \"mandatory\".\n\n**Caveats that change who pays:**\n- Collective-agreement or Board-accepted plans, where contributions may be higher by agreement, lower, or zero.\n- Public employers, which are excluded from \"employer\".\n- The DB-130 exemption for Social Security old-age beneficiaries, and PFL waivers for short-hours or short-tenure employees.\n- Proration across multiple jobs for DBL." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the employer is authorized to collect from his or her employees, except as otherwise provided in any plan or agreement under the provisions of subdivisions four or five of section two hundred eleven of this article", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "If the employer shall not make deduction for any payroll period he or she may thereafter, but not later than one month after payment of wages, collect such contribution through payroll deduction.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "Every employee in the employment of a covered employer shall contribute to the cost of providing disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits under this article, to the extent and in the manner herein provided.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "must be determined consistent with the principle that employees should pay the total costs of family leave premium. In no event may the employee's weekly contribution for disability premium exceed one-half of one per centum", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "the superintendent of financial services shall set the maximum employee contribution, using sound actuarial principles and the reports provided in section two hundred eight of this article. No employer shall be required to fund any portion of the family leave benefit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/210", + "quote": "Every covered employer shall, on and after January first, nineteen hundred fifty, contribute the cost of providing disability benefits in excess of the contributions collected from his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "A covered employer shall, with his or her own contributions and the contributions of his employees, provide disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits to his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "does not require contributions of any employee or of any class or classes of employees in excess of the statutory amount provided in section two hundred nine, subdivision three, except by agreement", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/213", + "quote": "such employer shall be fully and directly liable to each of his or her employees for the payment of benefits provided by this article.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/201", + "quote": "but does not include the state, a municipal corporation, local governmental agency, other political subdivisions or public authority.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/202", + "quote": "An employer who has in employment, after June thirtieth, nineteen hundred sixty-one, one or more employees on each of at least thirty days in any calendar year, shall be a covered employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "A covered employer may be responsible for payment of premium prior to collection of all employee contributions for a policy year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "an employer's failure to withhold may not be recovered by withholding larger than the maximum employee contribution at a later date.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-2.5", + "quote": "as long as the contributions to the cost of family leave benefits, pursuant to section 209 of the Workers' Compensation Law and required by the employer of like employees, have been paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-2.6", + "quote": "An employee as described in subdivision (a) of this section who elects not to enter into a waiver shall make regular family leave benefit contributions for the full duration of his or her employment with the covered employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-2.4", + "quote": "An employer is permitted, but not required, to collect the weekly employee contribution on July 1, 2017 for paid family leave coverage beginning on January 1, 2018.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/11-NYCRR-363.3", + "quote": "Maximum employee contribution means the maximum amount a covered employer is authorized to collect from each of its employees to fund the family leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/11-NYCRR-363.7", + "quote": "Collection of the maximum employee contribution shall be done in accordance with the requirements set forth in Workers' Compensation Law section 209.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employer-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "An employer is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions from its employees to offset the cost of providing disability and Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employee-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "Your employer is allowed, but not required, to take a contribution from you to offset the cost of providing disability benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost", + "quote": "An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost", + "quote": "Paid Family Leave is not optional for eligible employees. Coverage can only be waived if:", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026", + "quote": "New York State Paid Family Leave is insurance that may be funded by employees through payroll deductions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The 2026 PFL rate will be set at 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period up to and not to exceed an annual maximum employee contribution of $411.91.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "If an employee's contributions reach the annual maximum employee contribution of $411.91 before the end of the calendar year, the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions for that year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The maximum employee contribution is the maximum amount a covered employer is authorized to collect from each of its employees to fund Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/PFLDocs/pfl-pay-deduction-notice-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The 2026 payroll contribution is 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period and is capped at an annual maximum of $411.91.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/PressRe/paid-family-leave-2026.jsp", + "quote": "Beginning January 1, 2026, employees will contribute 0.432% of their gross wages per pay period to pay for Paid Family Leave, with a maximum annual contribution of $411.91 (0.432% of the NYSAWW).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/TheBoard/disability-benefits-fact-sheet.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may collect a contribution from its employees to offset the disability benefits insurance premium. The contribution is up to one-half of one percent of wages, up to 60 cents a week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/db271s.pdf", + "quote": "Employers may collect a maximum contribution of 60 cents/week to offset the insurance premium (unless the additional contribution is part of an approved plan).", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "The task text calls the PFL cap '0.432% capped at the $95,350.72 annualized SAWW'. That figure is not supported. 2026 NYSAWW $1,833.63 x 52 = $95,348.76, and $411.91 / 0.00432 = $95,349.54. The engine never computes a SAWW cap; it applies the $411.91 parameter (annual_max_contribution.yaml) directly. The discrepancy does not change the $411.91 result.", + "DBL: the law caps the contribution at $0.60 per week (WCL s.209(3)(a), (5)). The engine instead uses an annual cap of $31.20 = 52 x $0.60. January 1, 2026 is a Thursday, so a weekly Thursday payroll has 53 paydays in 2026, and the legal maximum there is $31.80. That is within $1 of the engine for scenario_082. The annual min() can also differ from the law for workers with uneven weekly wages, for example weeks under $120.", + "Engine amounts for scenario_082 match the law's maximum employee shares: PFL min(0.00432 x 100,195 = 432.84, 411.91) = $411.91 and DBL min(500.98, 31.20) = $31.20, total $443.11. The installed test tests/core/test_payroll_contributions.py expects 411.91 / 31.2 / 443.11. The legal minimum is $0 if the employer chooses not to collect (WCL s.209(4); WCB 'allowed, but not required').", + "Rate provenance: the 2026 PFL rate (0.432%) and cap ($411.91) come from the DFS decision dated August 29, 2025. They were restated in the WCB deduction-notice PDF (created 2025-09-03, modified 2025-09-05) and the WCB press release of October 30, 2025. All of these predate 2026-07-03. The DBL 0.5% / $0.60-a-week figures are long-standing statute; the nysenate.gov page shows a 2016-04-08 revision of s.209." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "No quote in the research failed verbatim confirmation. I checked every WCL quote (ss.201, 202, 209, 210, 211) with targeted WebFetch extraction on nysenate.gov, because curl and the browser pane are blocked by Cloudflare. So the statute text comes from model-extracted page text, not raw HTML. The s.211 'in excess of the statutory amount provided in section two hundred nine of this article ... except by agreement' string was confirmed as present.", + "Characterization, not a quote failure: the research cites 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(1) ('A covered employer may deduct employee contributions prior to the effective date of the policy and prior to an employee's eligibility') as the PFL 'may deduct' rule. Its scope is timing: it permits deducting before the policy takes effect and before the employee is eligible. It does not by itself grant general discretion over whether to deduct. The general discretion rests on WCL s.209(4) 'is authorized to collect', 11 NYCRR 363.3(i), and the WCB and PFL agency statements.", + "The PFL ceiling quote and the restated DBL ceiling quote are cited as 's.209'. Both are in s.209(5). That is accurate but imprecise.", + "The research omits contrary-leaning primary text that a reviewer should see:\n- 12 NYCRR 380-2.6(b) and (d): an employee whose waiver is revoked 'shall be obligated to begin making contributions', and a non-waiving employee 'shall make regular family leave benefit contributions'.\n- The DFS 2026 decision: 'the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions' after the cap.\n- paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost lists 'Collecting employee payroll contributions' among employer responsibilities and says PFL 'is not optional for eligible employees'. That statement is about coverage, not deductions.\n\nNone of these overrides the permissive collection mechanism, but the research understates the tension." + ], + "reasoning": "I read the statute and rules myself, and they support the classification for both programs: the employee share is an optional employer pass-through, not a mandatory withholding.\n\n**Who owes the premium.** The employer does.\n- WCL s.211 requires the covered employer to provide DBL and PFL benefits through the State Fund, a carrier, self-insurance or an accepted plan.\n- s.213 makes a non-complying employer 'fully and directly liable' for the benefits.\n- 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(2) contemplates the employer paying the premium before it collects any employee contributions.\n- s.210(1) and (3) put the DBL cost 'in excess of the contributions collected' on the employer.\n\n**How the employee share reaches the premium.** Only through the employer's payroll deduction, which the law permits but does not require.\n- s.209(4) says the employer 'is authorized to collect' by payroll deduction. If it skips a pay period, it may catch up only within one month after paying the wages.\n- 12 NYCRR 380-7.2(c) bars recovering missed PFL withholding by later withholding above the weekly maximum. So contributions the employer does not collect are simply never owed.\n- 11 NYCRR 363.3(i), the DFS regulation, defines the PFL maximum employee contribution as the most 'a covered employer is authorized to collect'. 363.7(b) defers collection to s.209.\n- 12 NYCRR 380-2.5(d) refers to contributions 'required by the employer of like employees', which treats requiring them as the employer's choice.\n- The agencies say it directly. The WCB employer page says collection is 'allowed, but not required' for both DB and PFL. The WCB employee page says the same for DB. paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost says 'An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.' DFS calls the 2026 maximum what an employer is 'authorized to collect'.\n\n**Where 'shall deduct' or 'shall withhold' language would appear, it does not.** I searched Article 9 for it. s.209 says 'authorized'. s.220 (penalties) has nothing on employee deductions. s.213 addresses only employer liability.\n\n**Contrary text.** Some language frames the employee as obligated:\n- s.209(1): every employee 'shall contribute ... to the extent and in the manner herein provided'.\n- 12 NYCRR 380-2.6(b) and (d): employees 'shall make regular' PFL contributions, and become 'obligated' once the employer notifies them.\n- The DFS decision: 'Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision', and the employee is 'not liable' for more once the cap is reached.\n- The WCB press release says employees 'will contribute' and calls PFL 'fully paid for by employees'.\n\nThese describe the employee side, and the default design: PFL is meant to be fully employee-funded (s.209(5); 'No employer shall be required to fund'). But 'the manner herein provided' is employer collection, which s.209(4) makes permissive. The official PFL site expressly allows the employer to absorb the cost. No primary source makes the employee liable to the state or the carrier independent of the employer collecting, and none requires the employer to withhold.\n\n**DBL versus PFL.** For DBL the case is even clearer. The employee share is capped at $0.60 a week, the employer pays the balance by statute, and both the WCB fact sheet and Form DB-271S say employers 'may collect'.\n\n**Engine.** The engine counts the maximum permitted share for both programs: PFL $411.91 + DBL $31.20 = $443.11 for scenario_082, which equals the legal maxima. The NY variables and parameters state no 'employer withholds the maximum' assumption; a grep for 'assum' and 'maximum permitted' found nothing. Meanwhile the employee_state_payroll_tax aggregator's documentation labels these 'mandatory', which NY primary law does not support.\n\n**Verdict.** The quotes check out and the classification stands. The research overstates the reach of 380-7.2(b)(1) and omits the 380-2.6 and DFS 'liable' language, but neither changes the result." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "the employer is authorized to collect from his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "he or she may thereafter, but not later than one month after payment of wages, collect such contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "the employer shall act as the agent of his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "No employer shall be required to fund any portion of the family leave benefit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "Every employee in the employment of a covered employer shall contribute to the cost of providing disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits under this article, to the extent and in the manner herein provided.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/209", + "quote": "shall be one-half of one per centum of the employee's wages paid to him or her on and after July first, nineteen hundred fifty, but not in excess of sixty cents per week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/210", + "quote": "contribute the cost of providing disability benefits in excess of the contributions collected from his or her employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "A covered employer shall, with his or her own contributions and the contributions of his employees, provide disability and after January first, two thousand eighteen, family leave benefits", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/211", + "quote": "in excess of the statutory amount provided in section two hundred nine, subdivision three, except by agreement and provided the contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "Unless otherwise specified in this Part or section 209 of the Workers' Compensation Law, an employer's failure to withhold may not be recovered by withholding larger than the maximum employee contribution at a later date.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "A covered employer may deduct employee contributions prior to the effective date of the policy and prior to an employee's eligibility for paid family leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-york/12-NYCRR-380-7.2", + "quote": "shall promptly return to employees any surplus in employee contributions that exceed the annual premium.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employer-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "An employer is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions from its employees to offset the cost of providing disability and Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/DisabilityBenefits/employee-disability-benefits.jsp", + "quote": "Your employer is allowed, but not required, to take a contribution from you to offset the cost of providing disability benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost", + "quote": "An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/employer-responsibilities-and-resources", + "quote": "Ensure that you are collecting the employee contributions that pay for this insurance.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The 2026 PFL rate will be set at 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period up to and not to exceed an annual maximum employee contribution of $411.91.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "The maximum employee contribution is the maximum amount a covered employer is authorized to collect from each of its employees to fund Paid Family Leave benefits.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions for that year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.dfs.ny.gov/apps-and-licensing/health-insurers/pfl-rate-decision-2026-page", + "quote": "Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/PFLDocs/pfl-pay-deduction-notice-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The 2026 payroll contribution is 0.432% of an employee's wages each pay period and is capped at an annual maximum of $411.91. Employees earning less than the New York State Average Weekly Wage ($1,833.63 per week)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/PressRe/paid-family-leave-2026.jsp", + "quote": "with a maximum annual contribution of $411.91 (0.432% of the NYSAWW).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026", + "quote": "New York State Paid Family Leave is insurance that may be funded by employees through payroll deductions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/TheBoard/disability-benefits-fact-sheet.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may collect a contribution from its employees to offset the disability benefits insurance premium. The contribution is up to one-half of one percent of wages, up to 60 cents a week.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://apps.wcb.ny.gov/content/main/forms/db271s.pdf", + "quote": "Employers may collect a maximum contribution of 60 cents/week to offset the insurance premium (unless the additional contribution is part of an approved plan).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/201", + "quote": "but does not include the state, a municipal corporation, local governmental agency, other political subdivisions or public authority", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/WKC/202", + "quote": "on each of at least thirty days in any calendar year", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None of the engine amounts is wrong as a law maximum. I re-ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 (version confirmed from the dist-info) for NY 2026 with $100,195 employment income and got: PFL $411.91, DBL $31.20, ny_employee_state_payroll_tax $443.11002, employee_state_payroll_tax $443.11002.", + "PFL check: 0.00432 x 100,195 = $432.84, above the cap, so $411.91. DBL check: 0.005 x 100,195 = $500.98, above the cap, so $31.20. Weekly wages are $1,926.83 and 0.5% of that is $9.63 a week, so the $0.60 weekly cap binds every week, and 52 x $0.60 = $31.20.", + "The task's '$95,350.72 annualized SAWW' does not appear in any source I read, and the engine does not use it. The engine applies the $411.91 parameter directly. The 2026 NYSAWW of $1,833.63 (WCB 2026 deduction notice, paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026, WCB press release) x 52 = $95,348.76, and 0.00432 of that is $411.9066, which rounds to $411.91. By contrast 0.00432 x 95,350.72 = $411.9151, which rounds to $411.92. The task's base figure therefore cannot reproduce the $411.91 cap exactly. This does not change the engine result.", + "DBL cap is weekly, not annual. 2026 has 53 Thursdays (computed), so a Thursday weekly payroll could legally collect up to 53 x $0.60 = $31.80. The engine's $31.20 is within $1 of that. The engine's annual min(0.5% x annual wages, $31.20) can also differ from the law for workers with uneven weeks, for example weeks under $120. Neither difference matters for scenario_082.", + "Publication dates, all before 2026-07-03. DFS decision: 'Dated: August 29, 2025', with a +11.31% premium rate increase over 2025. WCB 2026 deduction notice PDF: created 2025-09-03, modified 2025-09-05. WCB press release: October 30, 2025. NYSAWW: updated March 31, 2025 per paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/2026. DBL 0.5%/$0.60 is in WCL s.209(3)(a); the nysenate.gov page shows the section last updated 2016-04-08. A proposed DBL increase to $2.20 a week from 2027 (A00084) did not become law, according to search results I did not verify against a primary source. It would not apply to 2026 either way." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "WCL s.211(4)-(5) composite quote. The researcher's quote 'in excess of the statutory amount provided in section two hundred nine of this article...except by agreement' joins two subdivisions and misstates the wording. s.211(4) reads 'provided in subdivision three of section two hundred nine of this...'. s.211(5) reads 'provided in section two hundred nine, subdivision three, except by agreement and provided the contribution...'. The substance holds; the quoted string is not verbatim.", + "12 NYCRR 380-7.2(b)(1) 'may deduct'. The text is verbatim, but the provision is about timing: an employer may deduct before the policy's effective date and before the employee is eligible. It is weak support for 'deduction is optional'. The stronger regulatory support is 380-7.2(c): an employer's 'failure to withhold may not be recovered by withholding larger than the maximum employee contribution at a later date.'", + "Official NYCRR (govt.westlaw.com) and direct curl of nysenate.gov both returned a Cloudflare 403. I read 12 NYCRR 380-7.2 through the Cornell LII copy, which notes adoption in the NY State Register on July 19, 2017, eff. 7/19/2017. I read WCL text through WebFetch, which returns excerpts of at most 125 characters, so I confirmed key fragments verbatim rather than whole subdivisions.", + "The researcher left out mandatory-sounding counter-evidence from official sources. paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/employer-responsibilities-and-resources lists 'Collect Employee Payroll Contributions' as an employer responsibility and says 'Ensure that you are collecting the employee contributions that pay for this insurance.' The DFS 2026 decision says 'the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions for that year' once the cap is reached. The WCB 2026 deduction notice says 'Employees pay for these benefits through a small payroll deduction'. These do not override the statute's 'authorized' or WCB's explicit 'allowed, but not required', but they belong in the tension caveat.", + "paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost says 'funded by employees through payroll deductions', with no 'may', and still shows the 2025 figures (0.388%, $354.53, NYSAWW $1,757.19). The researcher correctly attributed the 'may be funded' wording to /2026 and noted the page is out of date." + ], + "reasoning": "I set out to refute the classification but could not. The primary statute, the regulations and the administering agency's own employer guidance all support 'optional employer pass-through' for both NY DBL and NY PFL.\n\nStatute (WCL, read on nysenate.gov via WebFetch):\n- s.209(4) says the employer 'is authorized to collect' the employee contribution through payroll deductions, and only within one month after paying the wages.\n- s.209(5) makes the employer the employees' agent when it collects.\n- s.210(1) has the employer pay the DBL cost 'in excess of the contributions collected', so whatever is not collected falls on the employer.\n- s.211 makes the covered employer the party that must provide the benefits.\n- s.209(3)(b) bars requiring employers to fund PFL but does not bar them from doing so voluntarily.\n- No subdivision says the employer 'shall deduct', 'shall withhold' or 'must collect'.\n\nRegulations (12 NYCRR 380-7.2, via Cornell LII):\n- (c) says missed PFL withholding cannot be recovered later by withholding above the weekly maximum.\n- Together with the one-month window in s.209(4), nothing makes the employee liable for a contribution the employer did not deduct.\n- Penalties for failing to provide coverage fall on the employer (380-7.2(d)).\n\nAgency guidance:\n- The WCB employer page says 'An employer is allowed, but not required, to collect contributions' and covers both DB and PFL.\n- The WCB employee page says the same for DB.\n- The WCB DB fact sheet and Form DB-271S both use 'may collect'.\n- paidfamilyleave.ny.gov/cost says 'An employer may choose to pay for the Paid Family Leave benefit on behalf of employees.'\n- DFS defines the 2026 maximum as the amount an employer is 'authorized to collect'.\n\nCounter-evidence I weighed:\n- WCL s.209(1): 'Every employee ... shall contribute ... to the extent and in the manner herein provided.' The manner provided is permissive employer collection under s.209(4).\n- DFS: 'Employers shall collect employee contributions consistent with this Decision' and 'the employee shall not be liable for any additional contributions' after the cap. I read both as setting the ceiling and method of collection, not as a mandate to collect.\n- The PFL employer-responsibilities page: 'Ensure that you are collecting the employee contributions that pay for this insurance.'\n- The WCB press release: PFL is 'fully paid for by employees'.\n\nThese describe the default design, especially for PFL, which DFS rates so that the employee share covers the full premium. None of them requires deduction. None creates an employee debt to the state or the carrier, and the WCB's explicit 'allowed, but not required' and the PFL site's 'may choose to pay' govern. So the classification stands for both programs. PFL is the closer case: it is designed to be employee-funded, but collection is still discretionary. It does not reach 'mixed_or_unclear', because the agency answers the may/must question directly.\n\nEngine and rates:\n- I read the NY engine variables and parameters in policyengine_us 2.15.17. They compute min(rate x wages, annual cap) with PFL 0.00432/$411.91 from 2026-01-01 and DBL 0.005/$31.20.\n- No NY file states the assumption that the employer withholds the maximum.\n- The aggregator employee_state_payroll_tax documents these as 'Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions'.\n- The engine amounts for scenario_082 ($411.91 + $31.20 = $443.11, confirmed by a re-run) equal the law maximum only if the employer deducts the maximum. Under NY law the employee share consistent with the prompt's facts ranges from $0 to $443.11.\n\nThe researcher's quotes are substantively accurate, except the spliced s.211(4)-(5) quote and the weak framing of 380-7.2(b)(1). Neither problem affects the classification." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "CT", + "research": { + "program": "Connecticut Paid Leave (Paid Family and Medical Leave Insurance Program), employee contribution", + "state": "CT", + "engine_variables": [ + "ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "ct_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "taxable_earnings_for_social_security", + "payroll_tax_gross_wages", + "gov.states.ct.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate", + "gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employee owes it. Under Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1), each employee (and each enrolled self-employed person or sole proprietor) must contribute a percentage of subject earnings, up to the Social Security contribution and benefit base, to the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Trust Fund. Under 31-49g(b)(3), each employer paying wages must deduct and withhold that contribution from wages every payroll period. The employer must register, report and remit (31-49g(b)(5)), and it bears the penalties for late or missing remittance. Under 31-49g(b)(4), the state can collect from either the employee or the employer. There is no employer share: the Authority's employer page says \"there is no employer match.\" The Authority's policy CTPL-003-CTRB(c) makes an employer that under-deducts liable for the shortfall, and it may not recoup that from later wages without CT DOL permission.", + "employee_share_rule": "employee_must_contribute", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1) (2026 Supplement; text from P.A. 19-25, 2019)", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "each employee and each self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m shall contribute a percentage of such employee's", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1), rate ceiling", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Such percentage shall be established by the authority, provided that the percentage shall not exceed one-half of one per cent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(3), mandatory employer withholding", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Each employer making payment of any wages to an employee shall deduct and withhold from such wages for each payroll period a contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(4), collection from employee or employer", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "If, after notice, an employee or employer or self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m fails to make a payment required by this section", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49e(18) (2026 Supp.; was 31-49e(17) in the Jan. 1, 2025 revision), definition of subject earnings and cap", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cSubject earnings\u201d means total wages, as defined in subsection (b) of section 31-222 and self-employment income as defined in 26 USC 1402(b), as amended from time to time, that shall not exceed the Social Security contribution and benefit base", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49e(8), public employers excluded (except covered public employees)", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cEmployer\u201d does not mean the federal government, the state or a municipality, a public school operator or a nonpublic elementary or secondary school", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49o(c), private plans: no state contribution", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Notwithstanding subsection (b) of section 31-49g, employees enrolled in an approved private plan shall not contribute a percentage of their earnings to the Family and Medical Leave Trust Fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49o(c), private plans: optional employer withholding up to the state rate", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "an employer may withhold or divert up to the portion of an employee's wages that corresponds to the contribution rate established pursuant to subsection (b) of section 31-49g", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49m(a), self-employed opt-in", + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "A self-employed individual or sole proprietor, upon application to the authority, in a form and manner prescribed by the authority, may enroll in the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Program", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "SSA, Cost-of-Living Increase and Other Determinations for 2026, 90 FR 49047 (Nov. 3, 2025), FR Doc. 2025-19763 (the 42 USC 430 base incorporated by 31-49g(b)(1) and 31-49e(18))", + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026 and self-employment income earned in tax years beginning in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/contributions", + "quote": "If you work for a covered employer in Connecticut, you are required to contribute 0.5% of your income up to the Social Security contribution limit. Individuals may not opt-out of CT Paid Leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers/i-am-an-employer", + "quote": "The funding to support CT Paid Leave comes from employee payroll deductions; there is no employer match. These payroll deductions are capped at 0.5% on earnings up to the Social Security contribution limit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers", + "quote": "Under the law, you are required to withhold payroll deductions of 0.5% from your workers and remit these contributions to the CT Paid Leave Authority quarterly.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions", + "quote": "The CT Paid Leave Authority Board of Directors voted to maintain the contribution rate at 0.5% for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/091125-board-draft-meeting-minutes.pdf?rev=ce295323765443f9a39f48670452af1e", + "quote": "All voting members of the Board voted in favor of maintaining the 0.5% contribution rate for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/consolidated-policies---pa-25-174---09112025---clean-version.pdf?rev=58b65e2cf7bb42a88c6585f1c853a540", + "quote": "if an employer fails to appropriately deduct the full contribution amount from employees, that employer shall be responsible for the difference between the amount deducted and the amount owed.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "The responsibility for remitting timely contributions and wage reporting to the Authority belongs to employers, as do penalties for late payments or failure to submit payments and wage reports.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/coverage-and-eligibility", + "quote": "A municipality is not a covered employer under CT Paid Leave unless one or more of its bargaining units collectively bargains to be included.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/law-and-policies/contribution-rate-change-policy.pdf?rev=dc3e141324034cf28049fdb21a5f5840", + "quote": "If the Authority decides to change the contribution rate for the following calendar year, the Authority must announce such change no later than November first of the preceding calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Unclear. No primary source I read authorizes it. In the public program, 31-49g(b)(3) says the employer \"shall deduct and withhold\" the contribution, and 31-49g(b)(1) puts the obligation on the employee. None of the statute, the Authority's Consolidated Policies (Sept. 11, 2025 and 07/09/2026 versions) or the Authority's contribution, employer and remittance pages says an employer may pay the employee's contribution in place of withholding it. The Authority's site says employees \"may not opt-out.\" Under CTPL-003-CTRB(c), an employer that fails to deduct the full amount is responsible for the difference, so an employer that does not withhold ends up paying, but this is a liability rule, not an election. Payroll-vendor and broker pages (help.paysoft.com, marshmma.com, seen only as search results) claim employers may voluntarily cover the contribution; that is secondary and was not used here. The exception is an approved private plan (31-49o(c)): the employee owes nothing to the state fund, and the employer \"may withhold or divert up to\" the state-rate portion of wages. There, the employee share is optional for the employer.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.5% of subject earnings, all from the employee (statutory ceiling of one-half of one percent under 31-49g(b)(1); no employer share or match)", + "max_employee_share": "0.5% of wages up to $184,500 = $922.50 per year (applied per employer; employees with several employers who overpay can get a refund of the excess under CTPL-003-CTRB(g)/(l))", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$184,500, the 2026 OASDI contribution and benefit base, incorporated by 31-49g(b)(1) and 31-49e(18) through 42 USC 430", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/091125-board-draft-meeting-minutes.pdf?rev=ce295323765443f9a39f48670452af1e", + "published": "Board vote on September 11, 2025 to keep 0.5% for 2026 (draft minutes for that meeting; the rate was announced ahead of the Nov. 1, 2025 statutory deadline under 31-49g(b)(2))" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions", + "published": "Undated Authority web page, read 2026-10-05, stating the 0.5% rate for 2026" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "published": "November 3, 2025 (Federal Register, FR Doc. 2025-19763; federalregister.gov API publication_date 2025-11-03)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "published": "2026 Supplement to the General Statutes (revised to Jan. 1, 2026). The rate ceiling and withholding duty in 31-49g(b)(1) and (b)(3) date from P.A. 19-25 (effective June 25, 2019); P.A. 25-75 made technical changes effective June 23, 2025. The Supplement's exact publication date was not confirmed." + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The 0.5% rate for 2026 was voted on Sept. 11, 2025; the $184,500 base was published Nov. 3, 2025; the statutory ceiling and withholding duty have been law since 2019. One caveat: the Consolidated Policies at the live URL are 'Revised 07/09/2026', after the cutoff. The provisions quoted from them also appear, identically, in the Sept. 11, 2025 version I read." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "engine_amount": 827.98, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 827.99, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Wages $165,597 are below the 2026 cap of $184,500, so subject earnings = $165,597. 0.005 x 165,597 = $827.985 (law amount shown rounded to $827.99). Running policyengine-us 2.15.17 from the triage venv with a CT single adult earning $165,597 in 2026 gave ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution = employee_state_payroll_tax = 827.985 and taxable_earnings_for_social_security = 165,597. The benchmark's $827.98 differs from the legal amount by less than $0.01. The law's 0.5% is the mandatory contribution, not an optional ceiling, so the engine's assumption matches the law for a public-program employee." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "Files read this session from policyengine_us 2.15.17 in .venv-pe21517:\n- variables/gov/states/ct/tax/payroll/paid_leave/ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py: label \"Connecticut employee paid leave contribution\"; documentation \"Employee-side Connecticut Paid Leave contribution.\"; Person, YEAR, defined_for StateCode.CT. Formula: parameters.gov.states.ct.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate x taxable_earnings_for_social_security. Unlike the Minnesota variable, it states no assumption about the employer withholding a \"maximum permitted\" share.\n- parameters/gov/states/ct/tax/payroll/paid_leave/employee_rate.yaml: description \"Employee-side Connecticut Paid Leave contribution rate.\"; value 0.005 from 2021-01-01, unchanged since. References: CGS Section 31-49e (cga.ct.gov chap_557) and ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions. It does not cite 31-49g(b), where the contribution and rate ceiling actually sit.\n- variables/gov/states/ct/tax/payroll/ct_employee_state_payroll_tax.py: label \"Connecticut employee state payroll tax\"; documentation \"Employee-side Connecticut payroll-funded contributions.\"; adds [\"ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution\"].\n- variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py: TaxUnit aggregator whose documentation reads \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules\"; it adds ct_employee_state_payroll_tax among 14 state components.\n- taxable_earnings_for_social_security = min_(gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap, payroll_tax_gross_wages).\n- payroll_tax_gross_wages = max_(0, employment_income - fica_pre_tax_contributions).\n- parameters/gov/irs/payroll/social_security/cap.yaml: 2026-01-01 value 184_500, annotated \"Official SSA determination.\"\n- The CT unemployment files (ct_employer_state_unemployment_tax, default_rate 0.025, taxable_wage_base 25,000) are employer-side and are not part of ct_employee_state_payroll_tax.\n- tests/core/test_payroll_contributions.py has a CT case expecting ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution = ct_employee_state_payroll_tax = employee_state_payroll_tax = 500.\nNone of these files models private plans, public-employer exclusions, work location, or self-employed opt-in.", + "caveats": [ + "The task's lead was wrong: Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49m covers voluntary enrollment by self-employed people and sole proprietors. The employee contribution and the employer's withholding duty are in 31-49g(b)(1) and (b)(3). Definitions are in 31-49e; after P.A. 25-174, subject earnings is 31-49e(18) in the 2026 Supplement.", + "Approved private plans (31-49o) change who pays. Employees in an approved private plan do not contribute to the state fund. The employer 'may withhold or divert up to' the state-rate share of wages, and the plan may cost employees no more than the state premium. For those employees the share is optional for the employer, and the law amount could be anywhere from $0 to 0.5% of capped wages. The benchmark prompt does not say whether the employer has a private plan.", + "Public employers are excluded under 31-49e(8): the federal government, the state, municipalities, public school operators (for certified staff) and nonpublic K-12 schools (for certified staff). State employees in a bargaining unit, and municipal or certified school staff, are covered only if their union bargains for inclusion; non-represented state employees are covered. The Authority's coverage page also lists railroads, other states' and countries' governments, and sovereign nations or tribes (unless there is a 31-49u memorandum of understanding). Employees of excluded employers owe $0.", + "There is no small-employer exemption. 'Employer' means anyone who employs one or more employees, and nonprofits and religious organizations are covered (Consolidated Policies). The obligation does not depend on unemployment insurance coverage.", + "Collective bargaining matters only for public employers (bargaining in). Under 31-49s, a private-sector CBA cannot reduce statutory rights, and no provision I read lets a private CBA opt employees out of contributing.", + "Work location: 'Employee' means service to an employer 'in this state' (31-49e(7)). Subject earnings exclude service outside Connecticut (Consolidated Policies CTPL-001-DEF). The Authority's page says some interstate truck drivers and military spouses may be excluded. The engine applies the contribution through defined_for StateCode.CT; these files have no separate work-location input. A Connecticut resident working in another state would owe $0 to Connecticut.", + "Wage definition: the law uses 'total wages' under 31-222(b). The Authority tells employers to exclude benefits excluded from FICA wages. The engine uses FICA wages (employment_income minus fica_pre_tax_contributions), capped at the Social Security base. For a plain-wages household these are the same.", + "With several employers, each employer withholds up to the Social Security base, and the employee can get a refund of any excess. The engine applies a single per-person cap, which equals the net amount after refund.", + "Self-employed people and sole proprietors owe nothing unless they enroll under 31-49m. The engine bases the amount only on wages (payroll_tax_gross_wages), which matches this.", + "The $2,325 minimum in a quarter is an eligibility test for benefits ('covered employee'), not a contribution threshold. Every employee contributes from the first dollar.", + "Timing: the Consolidated Policies at the live URL are 'Revised 07/09/2026', after the benchmark cutoff. Every provision I quoted from them also appears in the Sept. 11, 2025 version. The 2026 rate (vote of Sept. 11, 2025) and wage base (published Nov. 3, 2025) both predate 2026-07-03.", + "The cga.ct.gov statute pages failed in WebFetch (TLS certificate error), so I downloaded them with curl and read the text locally. ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html returned 403, so the 2026 base comes from the Federal Register notice instead. The Authority's FAQ (service.ctpaidleave.org) is rendered by JavaScript and could not be read." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Connecticut Paid Leave is a mandatory employee contribution, not an optional pass-through from the employer. Conn. Gen. Stat. 31-49g(b)(1) requires each employee to contribute a percentage of subject earnings, up to the Social Security base, set by the Authority at no more than 0.5%. 31-49g(b)(3) requires every employer paying wages to deduct and withhold it each payroll period. There is no employer share. The Authority's pages say individuals \"may not opt-out\" and that there is \"no employer match.\" For 2026, the Authority's board voted on Sept. 11, 2025 to keep the rate at 0.5%, and the Federal Register set the base at $184,500 on Nov. 3, 2025, so the maximum is $922.50 per year. Both predate the 2026-07-03 cutoff. The engine computes 0.005 x min($184,500, FICA wages). It is not the Minnesota-style \"maximum permitted\" assumption: for a public-program employee, the mandatory share is the legal amount. For scenario_120 the engine gives 0.005 x $165,597 = $827.985, which matches the law (I confirmed it by running the engine). The main exceptions, which the prompt does not rule out, are: approved private plans, where the employee owes nothing to the state and the employer may withhold up to 0.5%; excluded public employers unless their workers bargain in; and work outside Connecticut. No primary source I read lets an employer choose to pay the employee's share instead of withholding it; vendor pages claim it is allowed." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "each employee and each self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m shall contribute a percentage of such employee's or self-employed individual's or sole proprietor's subject earnings", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Such percentage shall be established by the authority, provided that the percentage shall not exceed one-half of one per cent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Each employer making payment of any wages to an employee shall deduct and withhold from such wages for each payroll period a contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "If, after notice, an employee or employer or self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m fails to make a payment required by this section", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Any employer that fails to comply with the provisions of this subsection shall be subject to penalties established by the authority pursuant to subsection (b) of section 31-49h.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Establishing the percentage of subject earnings each employee and self-employed individuals or sole proprietors who have enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m shall contribute to the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Trust Fund", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cEmployee\u201d means an individual engaged in service to an employer in this state in the business of the employer;", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cSubject earnings\u201d means total wages, as defined in subsection (b) of section 31-222 and self-employment income as defined in 26 USC 1402(b), as amended from time to time, that shall not exceed the Social Security contribution and benefit base", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cEmployer\u201d does not mean the federal government, the state or a municipality, a public school operator or a nonpublic elementary or secondary school", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Notwithstanding subsection (b) of section 31-49g, employees enrolled in an approved private plan shall not contribute a percentage of their earnings to the Family and Medical Leave Trust Fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "an employer may withhold or divert up to the portion of an employee's wages that corresponds to the contribution rate established pursuant to subsection (b) of section 31-49g", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "A self-employed individual or sole proprietor, upon application to the authority, in a form and manner prescribed by the authority, may enroll in the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Program", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/contributions", + "quote": "If you work for a covered employer in Connecticut, you are required to contribute 0.5% of your income up to the Social Security contribution limit. Individuals may not opt-out of CT Paid Leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers/i-am-an-employer", + "quote": "The funding to support CT Paid Leave comes from employee payroll deductions; there is no employer match.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers", + "quote": "Under the law, you are required to withhold payroll deductions of 0.5% from your workers and remit these contributions to the CT Paid Leave Authority quarterly.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions", + "quote": "The CT Paid Leave Authority Board of Directors voted to maintain the contribution rate at 0.5% for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/091125-board-draft-meeting-minutes.pdf?rev=ce295323765443f9a39f48670452af1e", + "quote": "All voting members of the Board voted in favor of maintaining the 0.5% contribution rate for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/consolidated-policies---pa-25-174---09112025---clean-version.pdf?rev=58b65e2cf7bb42a88c6585f1c853a540", + "quote": "if an employer fails to appropriately deduct the full contribution amount from employees, that employer shall be responsible for the difference between the amount deducted and the amount owed.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "The responsibility for remitting timely contributions and wage reporting to the Authority belongs to employers, as do penalties for late payments or failure to submit payments and wage reports.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/ct-paid-leave-community-toolkit.pdf?rev=3bf18499da6c4fd6854ab464c9eb474b", + "quote": "Employers who fail to deduct CT Paid Leave contributions in a timely fashion will need to pay the owed amount themselves.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/English-PDFs-and-Docs/Employee-Resource-PDFs/CTPL-Employee-Fact-Sheet-English-rev-0523.pdf", + "quote": "As an employee, you must participate in the CT Paid Leave program unless you are specifically excluded by law", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/coverage-and-eligibility", + "quote": "A municipality is not a covered employer under CT Paid Leave unless one or more of its bargaining units collectively bargains to be included.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/law-and-policies/contribution-rate-change-policy.pdf?rev=dc3e141324034cf28049fdb21a5f5840", + "quote": "If the Authority decides to change the contribution rate for the following calendar year, the Authority must announce such change no later than November first of the preceding calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026 and self-employment income earned in tax years beginning in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/DDS/Self_Determination/Employer_Toolkit.pdf", + "quote": "Although employers may apply for an exemption, individual employees are not permitted to opt-out.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None that change the classification or the scenario_120 check. 0.005 x $165,597 = $827.985 exactly. I ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 from the triage venv for a CT single adult with $165,597 wages in 2026. ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution, ct_employee_state_payroll_tax and employee_state_payroll_tax all returned 827.9849853515625 (float32), and taxable_earnings_for_social_security returned 165,597. That rounds to $827.98, within $0.01 of the legal amount. In practice, rounding each paycheck could move the total by a few cents.", + "The 2026 wage base of $184,500 is confirmed verbatim in 90 FR 49047 (FR Doc. 2025-19763; the federalregister.gov API gives publication_date 2025-11-03). The engine's cap.yaml has 2026-01-01: 184_500. The maximum employee share is 0.005 x 184,500 = $922.50.", + "The engine's employee_rate.yaml has a single value, 0.005 from 2021-01-01. Its references are CGS 31-49e and the remit-contributions page, not 31-49g(b)(1), where the contribution and the 0.5% ceiling actually sit. This is a citation weakness, not an amount error.", + "Minor imprecision in the research: it says the employer must 'register, report and remit (31-49g(b)(5))'. In fact (b)(5) covers only registering and submitting reports. The remittance duty comes from (b)(3) together with Consolidated Policies CTPL-003-CTRB(a). Also, (b)(5) and (b)(6), the employer registration, reporting and penalty clauses, were added by P.A. 24-5 (2024), not P.A. 19-25. The 0.5% ceiling and the withholding duty in (b)(1) and (b)(3) do date from P.A. 19-25 (2019)." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "No substantive problems. All nine statutory quotes in operative_text appear verbatim in the cga.ct.gov text I downloaded: six in the 2026 Supplement and three in the current/pub chapter 557, with the 31-49o(c) and 31-49m(a) text unchanged because the Supplement does not amend those sections. All agency-page and PDF quotes also appear verbatim.", + "The i-am-an-employer quote matches only once whitespace is normalized. The raw HTML puts a link around 'Social Security contribution limit', so the extracted text reads 'limit .' The rendered wording is the same.", + "WebFetch's summarizer did not return the for-businesses-and-employers quote ('Under the law, you are required to withhold...'). I confirmed it verbatim in that page's raw HTML, downloaded with curl, in the 'What if I'm a small business?' FAQ.", + "The Sept. 11, 2025 Consolidated Policies 'clean version' carries the footer 'rev. MM/DD/YYYY'. It is the proposed revision the Board adopted at its Sept. 11, 2025 meeting (minutes item 3). The URL names the minutes as a 'draft'. Both quotes the research takes from these documents appear in that version and in the live 'Revised 07/09/2026' version.", + "The 2020 CT Paid Leave Employer Toolkit hosted on portal.ct.gov (DDS) says an approved private plan must 'Deduct the same amount from employee paychecks as the state plan'. That conflicts with 31-49o(c), which says the employer 'may withhold or divert up to'. The toolkit is outdated and the statute controls, so this does not affect the research, which relies on the statute." + ], + "reasoning": "I tried to refute the classification from the statute, reading the full chapter rather than only the quoted lines. I downloaded cga.ct.gov chapter 557 (2026 Supplement and current/pub) with curl. The first fetch used -k; a later plain curl returned HTTP 200. I read 31-49e (definitions), 31-49g, 31-49h, 31-49i through 31-49o, and 31-49q through 31-49u in full. I then searched every PFML section for 'may deduct', 'may withhold', 'deduct', 'withh', 'on behalf of' and 'employer may'.\n\nFindings:\n(1) 31-49g(b)(1) puts the obligation on the employee: 'each employee ... shall contribute'. 31-49h(b)(11)(E) repeats it ('each employee ... shall contribute').\n(2) 31-49g(b)(3) requires withholding: every employer paying wages 'shall deduct and withhold' the contribution each payroll period.\n(3) 31-49g(b)(4) lets the state collect from either the employee or the employer. Under (b)(6), an employer that does not comply faces penalties.\n(4) The only 'may withhold' language in the PFML sections is 31-49o(c), for approved private plans. There, employees owe nothing to the state fund, and the employer's deduction of up to the state rate is optional.\n(5) No clause anywhere in 31-49e to 31-49u lets an employer pay instead of withholding, or makes the share for public-program employees optional.\n(6) The contribution applies to 'each employee', defined in 31-49e(7) as an individual serving an employer in Connecticut, not only to a 'covered employee'. So the $2,325 quarterly test affects benefit eligibility only, not who contributes.\n(7) 'Employer' covers anyone with one or more employees. Only governmental and certain school employers are excluded, unless their employees bargain in.\n\nAgency sources agree. The contributions page says workers 'are required to contribute 0.5%' and 'may not opt-out'. The employer pages say 'no employer match' and 'you are required to withhold'. Both versions of the Consolidated Policies, CTPL-003-CTRB(a)(3) and (c), make the employer responsible for any amount it fails to deduct. The Fall 2025 Community Toolkit says the same, and the 2020 toolkit says employees 'are not permitted to opt-out'.\n\nThe 2026 rate rests on sources published before the 2026-07-03 cutoff: the 0.5% Board vote on Sept. 11, 2025 (minutes confirmed), the statutory ceiling in force since 2019, and the $184,500 base published Nov. 3, 2025.\n\nA secondary-source search (a WebSearch summary, apparently drawing on payroll-vendor pages) claims employers may voluntarily pay the employee's contribution. I found no primary source that authorizes or forbids this. Even if allowed, the statute leaves the contribution owed by the employee. An employer that pays it would be paying the employee's legal obligation, not choosing whether the obligation exists.\n\nEngine (read this session): ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution = employee_rate (0.005) x taxable_earnings_for_social_security, which is min(SS cap, payroll_tax_gross_wages). It is aggregated through ct_employee_state_payroll_tax into employee_state_payroll_tax. Unlike the Minnesota variable, it states no 'maximum permitted' assumption. Running it gave 827.98498 for scenario_120, which matches the law's 0.5% x $165,597 = $827.985.\n\nThe classification holds for a public-program employee of a covered private employer working in Connecticut. The caveats the research already lists still apply: approved private plans (where the share is optional and $0 to 0.5% goes to the employer's plan), excluded public employers, and work outside Connecticut. The prompt rules none of these out, but none turns the public-program contribution into an optional pass-through." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "each employee and each self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m shall contribute a percentage of such employee's or self-employed individual's or sole proprietor's subject earnings", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Such percentage shall be established by the authority, provided that the percentage shall not exceed one-half of one per cent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Each employer making payment of any wages to an employee shall deduct and withhold from such wages for each payroll period a contribution computed in such manner as to result, so far as practicable, in withholding from the employee's wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "If, after notice, an employee or employer or self-employed individual or sole proprietor who has enrolled in the program pursuant to section 31-49m fails to make a payment required by this section, a state collection agency", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cSubject earnings\u201d means total wages, as defined in subsection (b) of section 31-222 and self-employment income as defined in 26 USC 1402(b), as amended from time to time, that shall not exceed the Social Security contribution and benefit base", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/2026/sup/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "\u201cEmployer\u201d does not mean the federal government, the state or a municipality, a public school operator or a nonpublic elementary or secondary school", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Notwithstanding subsection (b) of section 31-49g, employees enrolled in an approved private plan shall not contribute a percentage of their earnings to the Family and Medical Leave Trust Fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.cga.ct.gov/current/pub/chap_557.htm", + "quote": "Notwithstanding section 31-71e, an employer may withhold or divert up to the portion of an employee's wages that corresponds to the contribution rate established pursuant to subsection (b) of section 31-49g", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/contributions", + "quote": "If you work for a covered employer in Connecticut, you are required to contribute 0.5% of your income up to the Social Security contribution limit. Individuals may not opt-out of CT Paid Leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers", + "quote": "Under the law, you are required to withhold payroll deductions of 0.5% from your workers and remit these contributions to the CT Paid Leave Authority quarterly.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers", + "quote": "CT Paid Leave is designed to be entirely employee funded. There is no employer match.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/for-businesses-and-employers/i-am-an-employer", + "quote": "The funding to support CT Paid Leave comes from employee payroll deductions; there is no employer match. These payroll deductions are capped at 0.5% on earnings up to the Social Security contribution limit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions", + "quote": "The CT Paid Leave Authority Board of Directors voted to maintain the contribution rate at 0.5% for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/remit-contributions", + "quote": "The employer bears the ultimate responsibility for complying with their contribution obligation, even if they use a third-party administrator to act on their behalf. Interest and penalties for late or missed payments will be assessed against the employer.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/091125-board-draft-meeting-minutes.pdf?rev=ce295323765443f9a39f48670452af1e", + "quote": "All voting members of the Board voted in favor of maintaining the 0.5% contribution rate for 2026. None opposed. None abstained.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/law-and-policies/contribution-rate-change-policy.pdf?rev=dc3e141324034cf28049fdb21a5f5840", + "quote": "If the Authority decides to change the contribution rate for the following calendar year, the Authority must announce such change no later than November first of the preceding calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "if an employer fails to appropriately deduct the full contribution amount from employees, that employer shall be responsible for the difference between the amount deducted and the amount owed.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "The employer shall not deduct money from employees' future wages to remit that owed amount, unless the employer has obtained specific permission from the Connecticut Department of Labor.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "If contributions are not paid as the result of the employee's failure to disclose wages accurately or due to any other reason in the control of the employee, such employee shall be subject to the same penalties", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "The responsibility for remitting timely contributions and wage reporting to the Authority belongs to employers, as do penalties for late payments or failure to submit payments and wage reports.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/english-pdfs-and-docs/consolidated-policies-document.pdf?rev=b440cde1574c42adb2565fb846c6bb7f", + "quote": "an employee shall not be required to contribute to the Family and Medical Leave Insurance Trust Fund for wages that exceed the Social Security contribution and benefit base in a calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pages/meetings-and-agendas/board-of-directors/sept-bod-2025/consolidated-policies---pa-25-174---09112025---clean-version.pdf?rev=58b65e2cf7bb42a88c6585f1c853a540", + "quote": "if an employer fails to appropriately deduct the full contribution amount from employees, that employer shall be responsible for the difference between the amount deducted and the amount owed.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/-/media/ctpl/pdfs-and-docs/employer-resource-pdfs/employer-fact-sheet-english.pdf", + "quote": "These employers must register with the CT Paid Leave Authority and are required to withhold 0.5% of employee wages via payroll deduction (called contributions).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.ctpaidleave.org/how-ct-paid-leave-works/coverage-and-eligibility", + "quote": "A municipality is not a covered employer under CT Paid Leave unless one or more of its bargaining units collectively bargains to be included.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/full_text/text/2025/11/03/2025-19763.txt", + "quote": "The OASDI contribution and benefit base is $184,500 for remuneration paid in 2026 and self-employment income earned in tax years beginning in 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.thehartford.com/paid-family-medical-leave/ct", + "quote": "In the State program, employers are prohibited from making financial contributions on behalf of employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/ct/tax/payroll/paid_leave/ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution.py", + "quote": "rate = parameters(period).gov.states.ct.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate\n return rate * person(\"taxable_earnings_for_social_security\", period)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. 2026 rate 0.5% (board vote Sept. 11, 2025; draft minutes PDF created Sept. 17, 2025; the remit page confirms it). 2026 cap $184,500 (90 FR 49047, published 2025-11-03 per the federalregister.gov API). Maximum per employer is $922.50. Both predate 2026-07-03.", + "Engine parameter employee_rate.yaml has a single value, 0.005 from 2021-01-01, with no 2026 entry. Because the board kept 0.5% for 2026, carrying the old value forward is correct. The parameter cites 31-49e, but the rate ceiling sits in 31-49g(b)(1).", + "scenario_120 recomputed: I ran pe_case.py under policyengine-us 2.15.17 with PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE set. It gave ct_employee_paid_leave_contribution = ct_employee_state_payroll_tax = employee_state_payroll_tax = 827.985, with taxable_earnings_for_social_security = payroll_tax_gross_wages = 165,597 and fica_pre_tax_contributions = 0. The law amount is 0.005 x 165,597 = 827.985. The benchmark's $827.98 and the research's rounded $827.99 differ only by display rounding (under $0.01). Total payroll_tax 13,496.155 = 7.65% x 165,597 + 827.985, consistent.", + "Wording nuance, not an error: the Authority's employer page says deductions are 'capped at 0.5%'. Read alone, that sounds like a ceiling with room to choose less. But the board set the rate at exactly 0.5%, and the for-businesses page and the employer fact sheet both say employers are 'required to withhold' 0.5%. So the phrase does not make the share optional." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "None of the research's quotes failed verification. I confirmed every statute quote verbatim in curl downloads of cga.ct.gov: 31-49g(b)(1), (b)(1) rate ceiling, (b)(3), (b)(4), 31-49e(8), 31-49e(18), 31-49o(c) both sentences, and 31-49m(a). I also confirmed every agency quote verbatim: the contributions, i-am-an-employer, for-businesses, remit-contributions and coverage pages, the Sept. 11, 2025 minutes, the rate-change policy, and CTPL-003-CTRB(a)(3) and (c) in both the Sept. 2025 and 07/09/2026 policy versions.", + "Minor date gap the research left open, now closed: the research could not confirm when the 2026 Supplement was published. I compared 31-49g(a)-(b) in the Jan. 1, 2025 revision (cga.ct.gov/current/pub) with the 2026 Supplement after normalizing whitespace, and the text is identical. So the withholding duty and rate ceiling were published law well before the cutoff.", + "The minutes the research cites are a draft (the filename says so). The rate is independently confirmed on the remit-contributions and contributions pages, which are undated.", + "Context, not an error: the rate-change policy PDF's metadata date is May 2026, but the document itself says 'Adopted August 2024'. The live Consolidated Policies say 'Revised 07/09/2026' (PDF created July 14, 2026). The provisions quoted from them are identical in the Sept. 2025 version." + ], + "reasoning": "I tried to refute the classification through the administration lens and could not. The primary sources I read myself support it.\n\nStatute: 31-49g(b)(1) puts the duty on the employee, who \"shall contribute\" a percentage of subject earnings up to the Social Security base. The rate is set by the Authority at no more than 0.5%. Under (b)(3), every employer paying wages \"shall deduct and withhold\" the contribution each payroll period. Under (b)(4), the state can collect from a non-paying employee or employer after notice. Under (b)(5)-(6), employers must register and report, and face penalties. The (b) text is identical in the Jan. 1, 2025 revision and the 2026 Supplement.\n\nFormal rules: the only Connecticut regulations in this area (31-49p) cover appeals. Contribution rules sit in the Authority's Consolidated Policies, adopted under CGS 1-121.\n\nAgency wording is uniformly \"must\"/\"required\", never \"may\":\n- \"you are required to withhold payroll deductions of 0.5%\" (for-businesses page)\n- \"required to withhold 0.5% of employee wages\" (employer fact sheet, Oct. 2024)\n- individuals \"may not opt-out\" (contributions page)\n- the program is \"entirely employee funded\" with \"no employer match\" (for-businesses page)\n\nCan an employer choose to pay the employee share? No primary source authorizes that. Withholding is mandatory under 31-49g(b)(3). CTPL-003-CTRB(c) makes an employer that under-deducts liable for the shortfall and bars recouping it from future wages without CT DOL permission. So an employer that skips withholding ends up bearing the cost, but as a compliance failure, not a lawful election. CTRB(a)(4) adds that money collected from employees is held in trust for remittance.\n\nIs the employee ever liable? Yes, in two places:\n- 31-49g(b)(4) allows collection from the employee.\n- CTRB(i) makes an employee subject to the same penalties when contributions go unpaid for reasons in the employee's control, such as tipped income they did not disclose.\n\nThe secondary sources conflict, and I relied on neither. The Hartford says employers are \"prohibited\" from contributing on employees' behalf in the state program. Payroll vendors say employers may cover it voluntarily.\n\nThe real optional pass-through is the approved private plan under 31-49o(c). There, employees owe nothing to the state fund, and the employer \"may withhold or divert up to\" the state-rate share. Excluded public employers (unless their workers bargain in), work outside Connecticut, and non-enrolled self-employed people owe $0. The prompt does not rule these out, but none of them changes the default program's classification.\n\n2026 rate and cap:\n- 0.5%: board vote Sept. 11, 2025, under the policy requiring any change to be announced by Nov. 1.\n- $184,500: Federal Register, Nov. 3, 2025.\n- Both predate 2026-07-03.\n\nEngine, read this session: 0.005 x min(SS cap, FICA wages), defined_for StateCode.CT. The cap parameter for 2026 is 184,500. The engine states no \"maximum permitted\" assumption for Connecticut, and the 0.5% is the mandatory amount, not a ceiling the employer picks from. Running scenario_120 under 2.15.17 gives 827.985, matching 0.005 x 165,597 and the benchmark's $827.98 to within display rounding.\n\nEngine caveats the research already notes: the engine keys on residence (StateCode.CT), while the law keys on work in Connecticut, and it does not model private plans or public-employer exclusions. These matter only when the prompt's facts would differ.\n\nLocal working copies of everything I fetched are in /private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/224fe5b6-f6e8-4204-af8f-2508970193bc/scratchpad/ct/. I edited no project files." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "CA", + "research": { + "program": "California State Disability Insurance (SDI), the worker contribution that funds both Disability Insurance (DI) and Paid Family Leave (PFL)", + "state": "CA", + "engine_variables": [ + "ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution", + "ca_employee_state_payroll_tax (aggregator: adds = [ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution])", + "ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages (base)", + "parameter gov.states.ca.tax.payroll.disability.employee_rate" + ], + "premium_liability": "Under the State Plan, the worker owes the SDI contribution. UIC s. 984(a)(1) says \"Each worker shall pay worker contributions\", and s. 2901 says each individual in employment \"shall contribute to the Disability Fund\". The employer collects it but does not owe it: s. 986(a)(1) requires every employer to withhold the workers' contributions in trust from wages when paid, and s. 986(b) requires it to send them to the Disability Fund. Under the State Plan the employer pays no SDI contribution of its own. EDD's DE 44 says \"UI and ETT are employer paid contributions. SDI and PIT are withheld from employee wages.\" The exception is an approved Voluntary Plan. There, s. 3252(a) says neither the employee nor the employer is liable for worker contributions to the state. The plan pays the state an assessment of 14% of the worker rate times taxable wages (s. 3252(b)), and s. 3260 lets the employer deduct up to the State Plan amount from wages, or pay all or part of the cost itself.", + "employee_share_rule": "employee_must_contribute", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 984(a)(1) (as amended by Stats. 2019, ch. 24 (SB 83))", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "Each worker shall pay worker contributions at the rate determined by the director pursuant to this section with respect to wages, as defined by Sections 926, 927, and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 984(a)(3)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "The rate of worker contributions shall not exceed 1.5 percent or be less than 0.1 percent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 2901", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2901", + "quote": "Each individual performing services for an employer in employment shall contribute to the Disability Fund the contributions required of such individual by Sections 984 and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 986(a)(1) (introduced by 'each employer shall:')", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "withhold in trust the amount of his workers' contributions from their wages at the time the wages are paid, shall show the deduction on his payroll records", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 986(a)(2)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "Hold in trust the amount of his workers' contributions, at the time their wages are paid, where he undertakes or agrees to pay without deduction from the wages of his workers the amount of worker contributions required of his workers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 985(b) (as amended by Stats. 2023, ch. 196 (SB 143), effective Sept. 13, 2023): taxable wage ceiling removed", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=985.", + "quote": "This section shall not apply with respect to wages paid on or after January 1, 2024.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "SB 951 (Durazo), Stats. 2022, ch. 878, Legislative Counsel's Digest (approved by the Governor Sept. 30, 2022)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB951", + "quote": "This bill would remove that limitation on January 1, 2024.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 3252(a) (voluntary plans)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3252", + "quote": "neither an employee nor his or her employer shall be liable for the worker contributions required under this division with respect to wages paid by the employer while the employee is covered by an approved voluntary plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 3260 (voluntary plans)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3260", + "quote": "An employer may, but need not, assume all or part of the cost of the plan, and may deduct from the wages of an employee covered by the plan ... an amount not in excess of that which would be required by Sections 984 and 985", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 2902 (religious exemption)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2902", + "quote": "shall be exempt from contributions under this division in respect to any wages paid to him by any such employer in the calendar quarter in which such statement is filed", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 926 (definition of wages)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=926", + "quote": "\"wages\" means all remuneration payable to an employee for personal services, whether by private agreement or consent or by force of statute, including commissions and bonuses", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Unemp. Ins. Code s. 710.5 (public agency elective coverage through a negotiated agreement)", + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=710.5", + "quote": "provided the election is the result of a negotiated agreement between the public agency and the recognized employee organization", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "Cal. Code Regs. tit. 22, s. 3260-1 (voluntary plan employee contributions are trust funds). Read on LII, not on the official OAL/Westlaw host.", + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/california/22-CCR-3260-1", + "quote": "The amounts deducted by an employer from the wages of his or her employees as their contributions under a voluntary plan are trust funds.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "California employees pay mandatory contributions to reimburse the Disability Insurance (DI) Fund for State Disability Insurance (SDI) coverage.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260618174055/https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "2026 Voluntary Plan Employee Contribution and Benefit Rate / Effective January 1, 2026 / Employee Contribution Rate / 1.3% (Wayback capture of 2026-06-18; page dateModified 2026-01-01; same 'mandatory contributions' definition)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "The SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent. Effective January 1, 2024, all wages are subject to SDI contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110012902/https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "The SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent. (Earliest Wayback capture that shows it: 2025-11-10, page dateModified 2025-11-07. The 2025-10-08 and 2025-10-17 captures, dateModified 2025-10-03, list only 2025.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "UI and ETT are employer paid contributions. SDI and PIT are withheld from employee wages. (DE 44 2026 California Employer's Guide, Rev. 52 (4-26), Last-Modified 2026-04-17)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "The SDI program, which includes DI and PFL, is funded through mandatory employee payroll deductions for most California workers.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "Employers withhold 1.3 percent (.013) for SDI on all subject wages paid to each employee in a calendar year. The SDI rate is set by law and may change each year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "Once a VP is approved, the employer is no longer required to send SDI withholdings to EDD for those employees covered by the VP.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de201.pdf", + "quote": "Effective January 1, 2024, there is no SDI taxable wage limit. (DE 201 2026 California Payroll Taxes, Rev. 12 (1-26). The table gives SDI: Who Pays = Employee; Rate = 1.3%; Wage Limit = None. PDF created 2025-12-03.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/vp-general-release-letter-2026.pdf", + "quote": "Starting January 1, 2026, the SDI worker contribution rate will be 1.3 percent of an employee's annual gross taxable wages. (Letter dated December 31, 2025)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may pay an employee's share of Social Security and Medicare (taxes under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act [FICA]), State Disability Insurance (SDI), and federal and state income taxes without taking any money from the employee's salary.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employee's wages will increase if an employer pays their employees' share of FICA and SDI without taking it out from their wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de2040.pdf", + "quote": "An employer is authorized to deduct from a VP employee's wages an amount that does not exceed the current SDI plan contribution rate.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/unemployment/pdf/january-2026-di-fund-forecast.pdf", + "quote": "increased to 1.3 percent in 2026, and is projected to remain at 1.3 percent in 2027. (January 2026 DI Fund Forecast, PDF created 2026-01-07)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Yes, under the State Plan, but the employee's contribution remains owed. UIC s. 986(a)(2) covers an employer that \"undertakes or agrees to pay without deduction\" the worker contributions. The employer must still hold that amount in trust and send it to the Disability Fund. EDD's DE 231Q (Rev. 43 (1-26)) says an employer may pay an employee's SDI without taking money from salary. That payment counts as extra wages: subject wages are grossed up by W/(1-R) with R = .0130 for 2026, and household and agricultural employers are included for SDI. So the worker contribution is still due, and is computed on the grossed-up wage. The employer is only the one funding it. Under an approved Voluntary Plan the answer is different. UIC s. 3260 says the employer \"may, but need not\" assume all or part of the plan's cost and may deduct up to the State Plan amount. That is an optional employer pass-through capped at 1.3% of wages.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "1.3% of all SDI-subject wages. The whole rate is the worker contribution (UIC s. 984). Under the State Plan the employer pays no SDI rate.", + "max_employee_share": "1.3%, which is the full rate. The statutory band is 0.1% to 1.5% (s. 984(a)(3)). Under a Voluntary Plan, the most an employer may deduct is the same 1.3% (s. 3260; DE 2040).", + "wage_base_or_cap": "None. UIC s. 985(b) says the wage ceiling does not apply to wages paid on or after Jan 1, 2024 (SB 951, Stats. 2022 ch. 878; s. 985 as amended by SB 143, Stats. 2023 ch. 196). So there is no maximum contribution. EDD's DE 201 and DE 44 both say 'None' and 'No maximum'.", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110012902/https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "published": "The 2026 rate is on the EDD Rates and Withholding page by the 2025-11-10 Wayback capture (page dateModified 2025-11-07). It is absent from the 2025-10-08 and 2025-10-17 captures." + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de201.pdf", + "published": "PDF created 2025-12-03; server Last-Modified 2025-12-31; labeled Rev. 12 (1-26)" + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/vp-general-release-letter-2026.pdf", + "published": "Letter dated 2025-12-31 (PDF Last-Modified 2026-02-04)" + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/unemployment/pdf/january-2026-di-fund-forecast.pdf", + "published": "PDF created 2026-01-07" + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "published": "DE 44 Rev. 52 (4-26); server Last-Modified 2026-04-17" + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260618174055/https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "published": "Page dateModified 2026-01-01; captured 2026-06-18" + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=985.", + "published": "No-cap rule: SB 951 approved 2022-09-30; s. 985(b) current text effective 2023-09-13" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The 1.3% rate was public on EDD's site by early November 2025, and in the DE 201 (Dec 2025), the VP General Release Letter (Dec 31, 2025) and DE 44 (Apr 2026). The no-cap rule has been law since 2022/2023. I did not locate the director's formal s. 984(a)(1) rate statement, which the statute requires by Oct 31, 2025." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_005", + "engine_amount": 5590, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 5590, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$430,000 x 0.013 = $5,590.00, no cap. The engine gives $5,590. I also ran the installed engine for a single CA adult with $430,000 wages in 2026: ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution = 5590.0. The rate is flat, uncapped and per worker, so splitting household wages among earners does not change the total." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "engine_amount": 684.26, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 684.26, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$52,635 x 0.013 = $684.255, shown as $684.26. A local engine run gave 684.255." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_023", + "engine_amount": 226.75, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 226.75, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$17,442.65 x 0.013 = $226.75445, shown as $226.75. A local engine run gave 226.7545." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_099", + "engine_amount": 2145, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 2145, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$165,000 x 0.013 = $2,145.00, no cap. Before 2024 a cap would have bound at this wage; it no longer does. A local engine run gave 2145.0." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "I read these files this session, under policyengine_us 2.15.17 (.venv-pe21517).\n\n(1) variables/gov/states/ca/tax/payroll/disability/ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution.py. Label: \"California employee state disability insurance contribution\". Documentation: \"Employee-side California State Disability Insurance withholding, which funds SDI and Paid Family Leave.\" Person, YEAR, defined_for StateCode.CA. Formula: rate * ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages, with rate from parameters gov.states.ca.tax.payroll.disability.employee_rate. There is no wage cap and no voluntary-plan, religious-exemption or coverage logic. Unlike the Minnesota variable, this file states no \"maximum permitted employee share\" assumption.\n\n(2) parameters/gov/states/ca/tax/payroll/disability/employee_rate.yaml. Description: \"Employee-side California State Disability Insurance contribution rate.\" It has one value, 0000-01-01: 0.013, so 1.3% applies to every year. References: UIC s. 984, UIC s. 985, and \"2026 California Payroll Taxes (DE 201)\".\n\n(3) variables/.../ca_employee_state_payroll_tax.py. Documentation: \"Employee-side California payroll-funded contributions, including state disability insurance withholding.\" It is defined as adds = [ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution].\n\n(4) variables/.../ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages.py. It equals max(0, min(employment_income, payroll_tax_gross_wages + health_savings_account_payroll_contributions)). It cites EDD DE 231TP p.7, which I did not fetch.\n\nThe other CA payroll files are employer-side and not counted in the employee total: ETT at 0.001, and UI at a 0.034 default rate on a $7,000 base.\n\nI also ran the engine locally for 2026 single-adult CA households at the four wage levels. It returned 5590.0, 684.255, 226.7545 and 2145.0 for both the SDI variable and employee_state_payroll_tax. I did not read the employee_state_payroll_tax source file itself.", + "caveats": [ + "Voluntary Plans (UIC ss. 3251-3272). For employees covered by an approved VP, neither the employee nor the employer owes the State Plan worker contribution (s. 3252(a)). The employer 'may, but need not' assume the plan's cost and may deduct up to the State Plan amount (s. 3260; DE 2040). This is the one case where the engine's 1.3% is a maximum permitted deduction, not a mandatory one. A VP needs majority employee consent (s. 3254(c)). The benchmark prompt does not say whether the employer has a VP.", + "Employer-paid employee share (s. 986(a)(2); DE 231Q). If the employer pays SDI without deducting it, the payment counts as extra SDI-subject wages, grossed up as W/(1-0.013). The contribution is then slightly higher than 1.3% of stated cash wages, and the employer funds it. The engine does not model this gross-up.", + "Religious exemption (s. 2902). A worker who files a statement adhering to healing by prayer is exempt from contributions, and also gives up benefits.", + "Coverage exclusions. DE 44 lists some domestic workers, some governmental employees, employees of some nonprofit agencies, employees of interstate railroads, and people claiming a religious exemption. Public-entity service is covered only in narrow cases or by elective coverage (s. 2606(a)). A public agency can elect coverage only through an agreement negotiated with a recognized employee organization (s. 710.5), which is the only collective-bargaining hook I found. Self-employed people are not covered unless they elect coverage under ss. 708/708.5, at a separately set rate. The engine applies 1.3% to all CA wages and models none of these exclusions.", + "No small-employer exemption exists. The State Plan rate and the worker's liability do not depend on employer size.", + "Engine time-invariance. employee_rate.yaml has one value (0.013 from 0000-01-01) and the formula has no cap. That is correct for 2026. For other years it would be wrong: EDD lists 1.1% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025, and for 2023 0.9% with a $153,164 cap and $1,378.48 maximum. This does not affect the TY2026 benchmark.", + "Engine base. ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages adds HSA payroll contributions back to the FICA wage base, citing DE 231TP (not fetched this session). If a scenario has no HSA payroll contributions, the base is just wages.", + "Publication timing. I could not find the director's formal s. 984(a)(1) public-record rate statement, due by 2025-10-31. Rate publication is instead shown by the EDD web page (Wayback 2025-11-10; dateModified 2025-11-07), the DE 201 (Dec 2025), the VP General Release Letter (2025-12-31) and DE 44 (Apr 2026). All of these predate 2026-07-03.", + "The tit. 22 CCR s. 3260-1 text was read on LII (Cornell), a re-host of the official regulation, not on the official OAL/Westlaw site. It only backs a caveat, not the classification." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "California SDI, including PFL, is a mandatory employee contribution under the default State Plan. The law puts the liability on the worker: UIC s. 984(a)(1) says \"Each worker shall pay worker contributions\", and s. 2901 says the same. Every employer must withhold the contribution in trust from wages and send it to the Disability Fund (s. 986(a)(1), (b)). Under the State Plan the employer pays no SDI of its own (DE 44), and EDD describes the contributions as \"mandatory\".\n\nAn employer may choose to pay the worker's contribution instead of deducting it (s. 986(a)(2); DE 231Q). The contribution is still owed, and the payment counts as extra wages.\n\nFor 2026 the rate is 1.3% on all wages, with no wage base or maximum since Jan 1, 2024 (s. 985(b); SB 951). That figure was published on EDD's site by November 2025 and in the DE 201, the VP General Release Letter (Dec 31, 2025) and DE 44 (Apr 2026), all before 2026-07-03.\n\nThe engine computes 0.013 x CA payroll gross wages with no cap. All four benchmark amounts equal 1.3% of wages, within rounding: $5,590; $684.255 shown as $684.26; $226.75445 shown as $226.75; $2,145.\n\nThe only optional pass-through case is an approved Voluntary Plan. There the employer \"may, but need not\" deduct up to the State Plan amount (ss. 3252(a), 3260). The other caveats are the religious exemption (s. 2902) and coverage exclusions such as some public, domestic, railroad and nonprofit employees. The benchmark prompt does not specify any of these, and the engine does not model them.\n\nClassification: mandatory_employee_withholding." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "Each worker shall pay worker contributions at the rate determined by the director pursuant to this section with respect to wages, as defined by Sections 926, 927, and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "The rate of worker contributions shall not exceed 1.5 percent or be less than 0.1 percent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2901", + "quote": "Each individual performing services for an employer in employment shall contribute to the Disability Fund the contributions required of such individual by Sections 984 and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "(a) Notwithstanding any provision of law in this state to the contrary, each employer shall: (1) Except as provided in subdivision (a)(2) of this section, withhold in trust the amount of his workers\u2019 contributions from their wages at the time the wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "where he undertakes or agrees to pay without deduction from the wages of his workers the amount of worker contributions required of his workers under this division.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=987", + "quote": "Each employer shall be liable for any and all contributions required to be made by his workers on account of wages which he has paid to them regardless of whether or not he has deducted the contributions from the workers\u2019 wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=988", + "quote": "contributions by workers, payable as provided in this article, shall not be considered any part of the employer\u2019s assets and shall be paid to the director prior to the payment of any other claim against the employer.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=976", + "quote": "The contributions are due and shall be paid to the department for the Unemployment Fund by each employer in accordance with this division and shall not be deducted in whole or in part from the wages of individuals in his employ.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=985.", + "quote": "(b) This section shall not apply with respect to wages paid on or after January 1, 2024. (Amended by Stats. 2023, Ch. 196, Sec. 25. (SB 143) Effective September 13, 2023.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB951", + "quote": "This bill would remove that limitation on January 1, 2024.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3252", + "quote": "neither an employee nor his or her employer shall be liable for the worker contributions required under this division with respect to wages paid by the employer while the employee is covered by an approved voluntary plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3260", + "quote": "An employer may, but need not, assume all or part of the cost of the plan, and may deduct from the wages of an employee covered by the plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3254", + "quote": "(c) A majority of the employees of the employer employed in this state or a majority of the employees employed at any one distinct, separate establishment maintained by the employer in this state have consented to the plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2902", + "quote": "shall be exempt from contributions under this division in respect to any wages paid to him by any such employer in the calendar quarter in which such statement is filed", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=926", + "quote": "\u201cwages\u201d means all remuneration payable to an employee for personal services, whether by private agreement or consent or by force of statute, including commissions and bonuses", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=710.5", + "quote": "provided the election is the result of a negotiated agreement between the public agency and the recognized employee organization", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2606", + "quote": "with respect to service for any public entity as defined by Section 605 \u201cemployment\u201d for the purposes of this part includes only:", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/california/22-CCR-986-1", + "quote": "Contributions from employees at the rates prescribed in the code shall be deducted by the employer from wages paid to the employee at the time such wages are paid and shall be transmitted to the department by the employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/california/22-CCR-3260-1", + "quote": "The amounts deducted by an employer from the wages of his or her employees as their contributions under a voluntary plan are trust funds.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "California employees pay mandatory contributions to reimburse the Disability Insurance (DI) Fund for State Disability Insurance (SDI) coverage.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260618174055/https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "2026 Voluntary Plan Employee Contribution and Benefit Rate Effective January 1, 2026 Employee Contribution Rate 1.3% Taxable Wage Ceiling (per employee per year) $NA", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110012902/https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "The SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent. Effective January 1, 2024, all wages are subject to SDI contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "The SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent. Effective January 1, 2024, all wages are subject to SDI contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "UI and ETT are employer paid contributions. SDI and PIT are withheld from employee wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "The SDI program, which includes DI and PFL, is funded through mandatory employee payroll deductions for most California workers.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "Employers withhold 1.3 percent (.013) for SDI on all subject wages paid to each employee in a calendar year. The SDI rate is set by law and may change each year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "Once a VP is approved, the employer is no longer required to send SDI withholdings to EDD for those employees covered by the VP.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de201.pdf", + "quote": "Effective January 1, 2024, there is no SDI taxable wage limit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de3395.pdf", + "quote": "2026 7,000 None1 3.4 6.2 0.1 1.3 (DE 3395 Rev. 69 (1-26) row: Year, UI wage base, DI wage base, UI unrated/rated %, ETT %, SDI tax %; PDF created 2025-12-17)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/vp-general-release-letter-2026.pdf", + "quote": "Starting January 1, 2026, the SDI worker contribution rate will be 1.3 percent of an employee's annual gross taxable wages. Reference: California Unemployment Insurance Code (CUIC) section 984(a) (1).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may pay an employee's share of Social Security and Medicare (taxes under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act [FICA]), State Disability Insurance (SDI), and federal and state income taxes without taking any money from the employee's salary.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employee's wages will increase if an employer pays their employees' share of FICA and SDI without taking it out from their wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de2040.pdf", + "quote": "An employer is authorized to deduct from a VP employee's wages an amount that does not exceed the current SDI plan contribution rate.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/unemployment/pdf/january-2026-di-fund-forecast.pdf", + "quote": "increased to 1.3 percent in 2026, and is projected to remain at 1.3 percent in 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/ca/tax/payroll/disability/ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution.py", + "quote": "rate = parameters(period).gov.states.ca.tax.payroll.disability.employee_rate / return rate * person(\"ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages\", period)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/parameters/gov/states/ca/tax/payroll/disability/employee_rate.yaml", + "quote": "description: Employee-side California State Disability Insurance contribution rate. values: 0000-01-01: 0.013", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py", + "quote": "\"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded \" \"contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.\" ... adds = EMPLOYEE_STATE_PAYROLL_TAX_COMPONENTS", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. All four engine amounts equal 1.3% of wages with no cap: 430,000 x 0.013 = 5,590.00; 52,635 x 0.013 = 684.255 (shown 684.26); 17,442.65 x 0.013 = 226.75445 (shown 226.75); 165,000 x 0.013 = 2,145.00. I re-ran the installed policyengine_us 2.15.17 for single CA adults in 2026. It returned 5590.0, 684.255, 226.75446 and 2145.0, the same for ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution and employee_state_payroll_tax. The research reported 226.7545 for the third; the difference is float display only.", + "The 2026 rate of 1.3% with no wage base is confirmed by: the EDD Rates and Withholding page (Wayback 2025-11-10, dateModified 2025-11-07; still live, with dateModified now 2026-07-07); DE 201 Rev. 12 (1-26) (PDF created 2025-12-03, Last-Modified 2025-12-31); DE 3395 Rev. 69 (1-26), which shows 2026 SDI 1.3% and DI wage base 'None' (PDF created 2025-12-17); the VP General Release Letter dated December 31, 2025 (but the PDF itself was created 2026-01-29 and modified 2026-02-04); the January 2026 DI Fund Forecast (created 2026-01-07); and DE 44 Rev. 52 (4-26) (Last-Modified 2026-04-17). All predate 2026-07-03.", + "The no-cap rule is confirmed. UIC s. 985(b) reads 'This section shall not apply with respect to wages paid on or after January 1, 2024', per Stats. 2023 ch. 196 (SB 143), effective 2023-09-13. SB 951 (ch. 878) was approved 2022-09-30.", + "Engine time-invariance, as the research notes: employee_rate.yaml has a single value, 0000-01-01: 0.013, and the formula has no cap. That is correct for TY2026 and wrong for 2023-2025. It does not affect this benchmark.", + "The live Contribution Rates and Benefit Amounts page now shows dateModified 2026-09-17, after the cutoff. Its 2026-06-18 Wayback capture (dateModified 2026-01-01) is the right pre-cutoff evidence, and it carries the same 'mandatory contributions' sentence and 1.3% VP rate.", + "Like the research, I did not locate the director's formal s. 984(a)(1) public-record rate statement, which was due by 2025-10-31. CDX shows the EDD rates page changed between the 2025-10-20 capture and the 2025-11-10 capture." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "Characterization error (not a quote error). The research says the employer 'collects it but does not owe it'. UIC s. 987, which the research did not cite, makes each employer 'liable for any and all contributions required to be made by his workers ... regardless of whether or not he has deducted the contributions.' The employer has collection and secondary liability for the worker contribution. This strengthens the mandatory-withholding classification rather than weakening it, but the sentence as written is inaccurate.", + "The s. 3260 quote uses an ellipsis. It omits 'for the purpose of providing the disability benefits specified in this part,'. The elision does not change the meaning.", + "DE 231Q formula notation. The source writes 'S = W (1 \u2013 R)', where S is the actual salary paid and W is the reportable (total subject) wage, so W = S/(1-R). The research writes 'W/(1-R)' with W as cash wages. The math is the same but the variable labels are swapped relative to the source.", + "The DE 44 PDF's embedded Title metadata reads '2025 California Employer's Guide (DE 44) Rev. 52 (4-26)'. The cover text reads 'California Employer\u2019s Guide 2026' and 'DE 44 Rev. 52 (4-26)'. The research's '2026' label matches the cover.", + "22 CCR s. 3260-1, and s. 986-1 which I added, were read on LII (Cornell), not on the official OAL/Westlaw host.", + "Every other quote was confirmed verbatim at its stated URL: UIC ss. 984(a)(1), 984(a)(3), 2901, 986(a)(1), 986(a)(2), 985(b), 3252(a), 2902, 926 and 710.5; the SB 951 digest; and EDD's Contribution Rates page (live and Wayback), Rates and Withholding page (live and Wayback), DE 44 (four quotes), DE 201, VP letter, DE 231Q (two quotes), DE 2040 and the January 2026 forecast. Differences were curly versus straight apostrophes only." + ], + "reasoning": "I fetched the full statutory sections myself from leginfo (raw HTML, not a summary): UIC ss. 926, 976, 984, 985, 986, 987, 988, 2601-2606, 2901-2903, 3251, 3252, 3254, 3260-3263 and 710.5. I also read the SB 951 chaptered text, 22 CCR ss. 986-1 and 3260-1 (on LII), and the EDD pages and PDFs (DE 44, DE 201, DE 3395, DE 231Q, DE 2040, the VP 2026 letter, the January 2026 DI forecast, and Wayback captures).\n\nStatute lens. The State Plan contribution is mandatory and the liability sits on the worker:\n- s. 984(a)(1): \"Each worker shall pay worker contributions\".\n- s. 2901: each individual in employment \"shall contribute to the Disability Fund\".\n- s. 986(a)(1): \"each employer shall ... withhold in trust\" the workers' contributions from wages.\n- 22 CCR 986-1 repeats this: contributions \"shall be deducted by the employer\".\n- s. 987 makes the employer liable for the workers' contributions whether or not it deducted them.\n- s. 988 treats withheld worker contributions as not part of the employer's assets.\n\nThe UI contribution is the contrast case. s. 976 says the employer's own UI contribution \"shall not be deducted\" from wages, which confirms SDI is the employee-side levy.\n\nThe only \"may\" language for the State Plan is s. 986(a)(2). It lets the employer pay the worker contribution without deducting it, but the contribution stays \"required of his workers\" and must be held in trust and sent in. That makes the employer's payment a choice about who funds the amount, not about whether it is owed.\n\nThe only real optional pass-through is the approved Voluntary Plan. There, s. 3252(a) relieves the State Plan worker liability, and s. 3260 says the employer \"may, but need not\" assume the cost and \"may deduct\" up to the State Plan amount. A VP needs employer consent and majority employee consent (s. 3254), so it is an exception the benchmark prompt never invokes. The religious exemption (s. 2902) and coverage limits for public entities (s. 2606, with s. 710.5 elective coverage) are also exceptions, not the default.\n\nNo small-employer, collective-bargaining or self-insurance condition makes the default State Plan worker contribution optional. The classification mandatory_employee_withholding therefore holds, with the VP caveat correctly flagged.\n\nThe 2026 rate is 1.3% with no wage cap. It was published on EDD's site by 2025-11-10 and in DE 201 and DE 3395 (December 2025), all before 2026-07-03.\n\nOn the engine, I read the CA files and the aggregator. It computes 0.013 x ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages, and employee_state_payroll_tax is documented as \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes\". My local runs reproduce all four benchmark amounts.\n\nThe one substantive flaw I found is the research's statement that the employer \"does not owe\" the contribution, which s. 987 contradicts. It does not change the classification." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "Each worker shall pay worker contributions at the rate determined by the director pursuant to this section with respect to wages, as defined by Sections 926, 927, and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=984.", + "quote": "On or before October 31 of each calendar year, the director shall prepare a statement, which shall be a public record, declaring the rate of worker contributions for the calendar year", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=2901", + "quote": "Each individual performing services for an employer in employment shall contribute to the Disability Fund the contributions required of such individual by Sections 984 and 985.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "withhold in trust the amount of his workers\u2019 contributions from their wages at the time the wages are paid, shall show the deduction on his payroll records", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=986.", + "quote": "Hold in trust the amount of his workers\u2019 contributions, at the time their wages are paid, where he undertakes or agrees to pay without deduction from the wages of his workers the amount of worker contributions required of his workers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=985.", + "quote": "(b) This section shall not apply with respect to wages paid on or after January 1, 2024. (Amended by Stats. 2023, Ch. 196, Sec. 25. (SB 143) Effective September 13, 2023.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=1126", + "quote": "compute and assess the amounts of employer and worker contributions payable by the employing unit, adding thereto a penalty of 15 percent of the amount of contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=1112", + "quote": "Any employer who without good cause fails to pay any contributions required of him or her or of his or her workers ... within the time required shall pay a penalty of 15 percent", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3252", + "quote": "neither an employee nor his or her employer shall be liable for the worker contributions required under this division with respect to wages paid by the employer while the employee is covered by an approved voluntary plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/codes_displaySection.xhtml?lawCode=UIC§ionNum=3260", + "quote": "An employer may, but need not, assume all or part of the cost of the plan, and may deduct from the wages of an employee covered by the plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/california/22-CCR-986-1", + "quote": "Contributions from employees at the rates prescribed in the code shall be deducted by the employer from wages paid to the employee at the time such wages are paid and shall be transmitted to the department by the employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "UI and ETT are employer paid contributions. SDI and PIT are withheld from employee wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "The SDI program is funded through a payroll deduction from employees\u2019 wages. Employers withhold 1.3 percent (.013) for SDI on all subject wages paid to each employee in a calendar year.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "The SDI program, which includes DI and PFL, is funded through mandatory employee payroll deductions for most California workers.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de44.pdf", + "quote": "Once a VP is approved, the employer is no longer required to send SDI withholdings to EDD for those employees covered by the VP.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de201.pdf", + "quote": "Effective January 1, 2024, there is no SDI taxable wage limit. (Table: Who Pays = Employee; Rate = 1.3%; Wage Limit = None. DE 201 Rev. 12 (1-26), PDF created 2025-12-03.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employer may pay an employee\u2019s share of Social Security and Medicare (taxes under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act [FICA]), State Disability Insurance (SDI), and federal and state income taxes without taking any money from the employee\u2019s salary.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231q.pdf", + "quote": "An employee\u2019s wages will increase if an employer pays their employees\u2019 share of FICA and SDI without taking it out from their wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/employer_requirements/", + "quote": "Employers must: Withhold mandatory payroll deductions for DI and PFL. Send contributions to the EDD Tax Branch.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "California employees pay mandatory contributions to reimburse the Disability Insurance (DI) Fund for State Disability Insurance (SDI) coverage.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260618174055/https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Contribution_Rates_and_Benefit_Amounts/", + "quote": "2026 Voluntary Plan Employee Contribution and Benefit Rate Effective January 1, 2026 Employee Contribution Rate 1.3% (capture 2026-06-18; page dateModified 2026-01-01)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "The SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent. Effective January 1, 2024, all wages are subject to SDI contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251110012902/https://edd.ca.gov/en/payroll_taxes/rates_and_withholding/", + "quote": "SDI withholding rate for 2026 is 1.3 percent (capture 2025-11-10, page dateModified 2025-11-07; the 2025-10-17 capture, dateModified 2025-10-03, lists only 2025 and earlier)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/vp-general-release-letter-2026.pdf", + "quote": "Starting January 1, 2026, the SDI worker contribution rate will be 1.3 percent of an employee\u2019s annual gross taxable wages. Reference: California Unemployment Insurance Code (CUIC) section 984(a) (1).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de3395.pdf", + "quote": "2026 7,000 None1 3.4 6.2 0.1 1.3 (DE 3395 Rev. 69 (1-26), columns UI base, DI base, UI unrated, UI rated, ETT %, SDI Tax %; PDF created 2025-12-17)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/unemployment/pdf/january-2026-di-fund-forecast.pdf", + "quote": "increased to 1.3 percent in 2026, and is projected to remain at 1.3 percent in 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de2040.pdf", + "quote": "An employer is authorized to deduct from a VP employee\u2019s wages an amount that does not exceed the current SDI plan contribution rate.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de2040.pdf", + "quote": "Any employer who operates a VP without EDD approval will be responsible for all SDI contributions withheld from the wages of employees.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://edd.ca.gov/siteassets/files/pdf_pub_ctr/de231tp.pdf", + "quote": "B. Employee contributions to a qualified cash or deferred compensation plan as defined in Section 401(k) of the IRC. [SDI column:] Subject Section 926 of the CUIC, unless benefit under an IRC Section 125 cafeteria plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB951", + "quote": "This bill would remove that limitation on January 1, 2024. [Approved by Governor September 30, 2022.]", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/ca/tax/payroll/disability/ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution.py", + "quote": "rate = parameters(period).gov.states.ca.tax.payroll.disability.employee_rate / return rate * person(\"ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages\", period) [employee_rate.yaml: 0000-01-01: 0.013]", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "file:///Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517/lib/python3.13/site-packages/policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py", + "quote": "Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules. (TaxUnit; adds includes ca_employee_state_payroll_tax)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. I independently confirmed the 2026 rate (1.3%), employee share (the full rate, since the State Plan has no employer SDI rate) and the absence of a wage cap. Sources: UIC 984/985(b), DE 201, DE 3395 Rev. 69 (1-26), DE 44 Rev. 52 (4-26), the VP General Release Letter dated 2025-12-31, the January 2026 DI Fund Forecast, and the EDD rates page (Wayback 2025-11-10, dateModified 2025-11-07). All predate 2026-07-03.", + "The researcher's engine checks used single-adult households. The real scenarios differ: scenario_005 and scenario_099 are joint two-earner households, and both they and scenario_023 include traditional and Roth 401(k) deferrals. I re-ran the installed engine (policyengine_us 2.15.17) with those compositions for 2026. scenario_005 gave per-person SDI 2340 + 3250 = 5590. scenario_099 gave 1105 + 1040 = 2145. scenario_022 gave 684.255. scenario_023 gave 226.75446 on $17,442.65. The 401(k) deferrals do not reduce the engine's SDI base (ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages = 180,000 / 250,000 etc.). That is correct law: DE 231TP marks employee 401(k) contributions 'Subject' for SDI under UIC 926.", + "scenario_023: the prompt shows wages of $17,443, which at 1.3% gives $226.759 ($226.76). The engine's $226.75 comes from the unrounded $17,442.65. The gap is $0.01, well within $1.", + "Engine parameter employee_rate.yaml has a single value, 0.013 from 0000-01-01, and no cap. That is correct for TY2026 but wrong for other years: DE 3395 shows 1.2% for 2025, 1.1% for 2024, and 0.9% with a $153,164 DI wage base for 2023. It does not affect this benchmark.", + "Minor notation slip in the researcher's caveat. In DE 231Q, S is the salary paid and W is the reportable (grossed-up) wage, so W = S/(1-R) (example: $1,000 \u00f7 (1 \u2013 .0895) = $1,098.30). The researcher wrote 'grossed up by W/(1-R)'. The substance is right: the gross-up applies when the employer absorbs the employee SDI share, and the engine does not model it." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "No quoted statute or EDD text failed verification. I re-fetched the leginfo pages for UIC 984, 985, 986, 2901, 2902, 3252, 3260, 926 and 710.5, plus the SB 951 bill text, and the EDD PDFs and pages. Each quote the researcher relied on appears verbatim, allowing for curly versus straight apostrophes.", + "Title 22 CCR regulations (986-1, 986-2, 926-1, 3260-1) could only be read on the LII (Cornell) re-host. The official govt.westlaw.com/calregs host returned a Cloudflare JavaScript challenge, so the regulation text is not confirmed on the official host.", + "The DE 44 PDF's embedded metadata title reads '2025 California Employer's Guide (DE 44) Rev. 52 (4-26)'. Its cover and body say 2026 and give the 2026 SDI rate of 1.3%. This is cosmetic.", + "The DE 2040 page footer reads 'DE 2040 Rev. 7 (12-20)' while its PDF metadata says 'Revision 5'. The server Last-Modified is 2022-03-30, so this guidance predates 2026 but is the current posted version.", + "The director's formal UIC 984(a)(1) public-record rate statement, due by 2025-10-31, was not located by me either. The earliest dated public evidence of the 2026 rate I found is the EDD rates page with dateModified 2025-11-07, captured by Wayback on 2025-11-10." + ], + "reasoning": "I could not refute the classification; the sources I read myself support it.\n\nStatute: UIC 984(a)(1) says \"Each worker shall pay worker contributions\", and s. 2901 repeats this. UIC 986(a)(1) says each employer \"shall\" withhold the contribution in trust from wages when they are paid. Under 986(a)(2), an employer that agrees to pay the contribution without deducting it must still hold the amount in trust and send it in (986(b)). The employer has no SDI rate of its own under the State Plan (986(b) contrasts the worker contributions with the employer's \"own contributions for the Unemployment Fund\").\n\nAdministration lens:\n- Regulation: 22 CCR 986-1 (read on LII) says employee contributions \"shall be deducted by the employer\".\n- EDD guidance: the DE 44, the Employer Requirements page and the Contribution Rates page describe SDI as mandatory employee payroll deductions. \"Employers must: Withhold mandatory payroll deductions for DI and PFL.\" The DE 44 says \"Who Pays? Employee\".\n- Paying the employee share: the employer may pay it instead of deducting it (DE 231Q; s. 986(a)(2)). This mirrors the FICA option. The amount the employer pays becomes extra SDI-subject wages, grossed up as W = S/(1-R) with R = .0130 for 2026. So the contribution is still owed on the worker's wages; only who funds it changes. That is the reverse of an optional pass-through, where the premium is the employer's liability and deducting is discretionary.\n- Liability if not deducted: I found no rule that makes the employee liable to the state. Collection runs against the employer: UIC 1126 assesses \"employer and worker contributions payable by the employing unit\", s. 1112 imposes a 15% penalty on an employer that fails to pay contributions \"required of ... his or her workers\", s. 1113 adds interest, and s. 1735 makes responsible officers personally liable. This makes the withholding duty enforceable. It does not make it optional.\n\nThe only genuinely optional pass-through is an approved Voluntary Plan. Under one, neither the employee nor the employer owes the State Plan contribution (s. 3252(a)). The employer \"may, but need not\" bear the cost and may deduct up to the State Plan amount (s. 3260; DE 2040). A VP needs majority employee consent and EDD approval (s. 3254), and the benchmark prompt gives no facts suggesting one. Other narrow carve-outs are the religious exemption (s. 2902) and coverage exclusions (public entities except as listed in s. 2606, some domestic workers, and others). None of them is triggered by the household facts.\n\nRate and cap: 1.3% for 2026 on all wages with no cap. The no-cap rule comes from s. 985(b), enacted by SB 951 (approved 2022-09-30) as amended by SB 143 (effective 2023-09-13). The rate was published on EDD's site by 2025-11-07/10 and in the DE 201 (created 2025-12-03), DE 3395 (2025-12-17), the VP letter (2025-12-31), the DI forecast (2026-01-07) and DE 44 (2026-04-17), all before 2026-07-03.\n\nEngine: I read the source this session. The engine computes 0.013 \u00d7 ca_payroll_tax_gross_wages, and that base does not subtract 401(k) deferrals, which matches DE 231TP. I re-ran the actual household compositions and got 5590, 684.255, 226.754 and 2145, matching all four benchmark amounts within $0.01.\n\nClassification: mandatory_employee_withholding. The researcher's classification, rates, amounts and caveats stand. The only corrections are minor: the gross-up notation, the single-adult engine runs, and the LII-only regulation host." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "PA", + "research": { + "program": "Pennsylvania Unemployment Compensation employee contribution (UC Law s. 301.4, 43 P.S. s. 781.4)", + "state": "PA", + "engine_variables": [ + "pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution", + "pa_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "parameter gov.states.pa.tax.payroll.unemployment.employee_rate" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employee owes it. Section 301.4(a) says each employe \"shall pay\" contributions on all wages paid for covered employment. Section 301.4(b) makes the employer the mandatory collection agent: it \"shall withhold, in trust\" those contributions from wages when the wages are paid and must send them to the Department. The employer's own UC contributions are a separate tax (s. 301 and related sections) on the first $10,000 of wages. The s. 301.4 employee contribution is not a share of an employer premium.", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_must_withhold", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 301.4(a), 43 P.S. s. 781.4(a) (official PA General Assembly unconsolidated statutes, Chapter 3)", + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "Each employe shall pay contributions at a rate ... as set forth in section 301.7 for each calendar year thereafter of all wages paid for \"employment\" as defined by the act without regard to the limitation specified in section 4(x)(1)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 301.4(b), 43 P.S. s. 781.4(b)", + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "Each employer subject to this act shall be responsible for withholding and shall withhold, in trust, such contributions from the wages of his employes at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 301.4(c), 43 P.S. s. 781.4(c)", + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "Any employer who is an individual, or any officer or agent of any employer, who violates the trust provision of this section, fails to withhold, hold in trust or fails to transmit to the department all contributions withheld", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 301.8(a), 43 P.S. s. 781.8(a) (DLI compilation, 2022 edition, A-1936-1 REV 12-22; the booklet says it is not an official copy)", + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/uc_law.pdf", + "quote": "the secretary shall redetermine the rates of the surcharge, employe tax, additional contributions and benefit reduction otherwise applicable under sections 301.7 and 404(e)(4)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 301.8(b)(3), 43 P.S. s. 781.8(b)(3) (DLI compilation, 2022 edition)", + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/uc_law.pdf", + "quote": "the employe tax under section 301.4 shall yield two hundred thirty million dollars ($230,000,000)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "UC Law s. 4(x)(1), 43 P.S. s. 753(x)(1): the $10,000 limit applies only to employer contributions (DLI compilation, 2022 edition)", + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/uc_law.pdf", + "quote": "For purposes of paying employer contributions, that part of the remuneration paid to an individual by each of his employers during a calendar year that exceeds", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "Employers subject to the PA UC Law are responsible for withholding employee contributions based on total gross wages earned in covered employment as defined under the Law.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "Employee contributions are based on an individual's total (gross) wages and are not limited to the taxable wage base in effect for employer contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/reimbursable-employers", + "quote": "When applicable, all employers are required to withhold employee contributions at the time wages are paid, regardless of the method used to pay UC liability.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/yearly-tax-highlights", + "quote": "Employee contributions (UC withholding) is 0.07 percent (70 cents per $1,000 gross wages) ... There is no cap on the gross wages upon which employee withholding is calculated.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-749%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "Employee Withholding on Gross Wages [A] ... 2026 .0007 ... A. No cap on gross wages for employee withholding. ... The Trigger Percentage as of July 1, 2025 calculated to 119%", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/budget/documents/for-commonwealth-agencies-and-employees/for-agencies/payroll/payroll-memo-26-01-federal-withholding-state-unemployment-tax-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The Department of Labor and Industry confirmed that the employee Unemployment Tax will remain at .07 percent for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-748%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "THERE IS A 9.2% SURCHARGE ADJUSTMENT, 0.60% ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND 0.0% INTEREST FACTOR IN EFFECT FOR 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/ucp-forms/ucp-36.pdf", + "quote": "Both reimbursable and contributory employers are required to withhold employee contributions from each employee's gross wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/calculating-contributions--penalties-and-interest", + "quote": "The employee contribution rate has been set at 0.07 percent for the calendar year 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pabull?file=/secure/pabulletin/data/vol56/56-3/88.html", + "quote": "The trigger percentage calculated by the Secretary on July 1, 2025, was not at least 250%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/034/chapter63/chap63toc.html", + "quote": "(No quote. I reviewed the table of contents of 34 Pa. Code ch. 63. No section addresses s. 301.4 employee contributions or an employer paying the employee share.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "No, as far as I can find. Section 301.4(a) puts the contribution on each employe (\"shall pay\"), and s. 301.4(b) requires the employer to withhold it from wages (\"shall withhold, in trust\"). Section 301.4(c) penalizes failing to withhold. Neither s. 301.4 nor the 34 Pa. Code ch. 63 table of contents provides for an employer to pay the employee contribution instead of withholding it, and none of the DLI pages I read mention such an election. The only \"employer pays without deduction\" provision I saw is s. 4(x)(3), and it covers the federal FICA employee tax, not this contribution. I searched for an express prohibition and did not find one; what I found is mandatory withholding language and no authorization to elect otherwise.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "Employee contribution: 0.07% (.0007) of all gross wages in covered employment. This is a separate tax, not a split of a combined premium. For context only, employer contributions are a different tax on the first $10,000: the non-delinquent experience range in 2026 is .014190 to .103734, including a 9.2% surcharge adjustment, 0.60% additional contributions and a 0.0% interest factor. The trigger percentage as of July 1, 2025 was 119%.", + "max_employee_share": "0.07% of gross wages. The whole s. 301.4 contribution is the employee's, so there is no cap or 'up to' share.", + "wage_base_or_cap": "No cap for the employee contribution. Section 301.4(a) applies 'without regard to' the s. 4(x)(1) limit. The $10,000 taxable wage base applies only to employer contributions.", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-749%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "published": "DLI form UC-749 REV 09-25. PDF metadata: created 2025-09-17, modified 2025-09-22. Server Last-Modified: 2025-11-07. Shows 2026 employee withholding .0007, no cap, trigger 119%." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-748%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "published": "DLI form UC-748 REV 09-25, 'Effective January 1, 2026'. PDF created 2025-09-17. Server Last-Modified: 2025-11-07. Employer-side 2026 rates." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/budget/documents/for-commonwealth-agencies-and-employees/for-agencies/payroll/payroll-memo-26-01-federal-withholding-state-unemployment-tax-2026.pdf", + "published": "PA Office of the Budget, BCPO Payroll Memo #26-01, dated January 13, 2026. Says DLI confirmed .07% for 2026." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/yearly-tax-highlights", + "published": "DLI web page, undated. Read 2026-10-05. Gives 0.07% for both 2026 and 2025, with no cap." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "published": "Statute s. 301.4, last amended July 2, 2013 (P.L.195, No.34). Sets the no-cap base and points the rate to ss. 301.7/301.8." + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. UC-749 and UC-748 REV 09-25 were created in September 2025 and served since at least 2025-11-07. The BCPO memo is dated 2026-01-13. Statute s. 301.4 dates from 2013. All are before 2026-07-03." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_028", + "engine_amount": 42, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 42, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$60,000 x 0.0007 = $42.00. No wage cap applies (s. 301.4(a)). I ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 for a PA 2026 single earner with $60,000 employment_income: pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution = 42.0, employee_state_payroll_tax = 42.0." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_123", + "engine_amount": 101.5, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 101.5, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "$145,000 x 0.0007 = $101.50. The rate is flat with no cap, so the result is the same however the wages are split between earners or employers. Engine runs: one earner at $145,000 gives 101.5. Two earners at $100,000 + $45,000 give 70.00 + 31.50 = 101.5 total employee_state_payroll_tax." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "Read this session from the installed policyengine_us (2.15.17 venv).\n\n- **variables/gov/states/pa/tax/payroll/unemployment/pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution.py:** label \"Pennsylvania employee unemployment compensation contribution\". Documentation: \"Employee-side Pennsylvania unemployment compensation withholding.\" Entity Person, YEAR, defined_for StateCode.PA. Formula: parameters.gov.states.pa.tax.payroll.unemployment.employee_rate * max_(0, employment_income). There is no cap, no covered-employment test and no employer-election input.\n- **parameters/.../unemployment/employee_rate.yaml:** 2015-01-01: 0.0007; 2018-01-01: 0.0006; 2023-01-01: 0.0007. References: DLI Contribution Rate Chart UC-749 Rev 08-21, DLI 'Calculating Contributions, Penalties, and Interest', and DLI 'Employee Withholding'.\n- **variables/.../payroll/pa_employee_state_payroll_tax.py:** label \"Pennsylvania employee state payroll tax\". Documentation: \"Employee-side Pennsylvania payroll-funded contributions, including unemployment compensation withholding.\" It adds only pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution.\n- **variables/gov/states/tax/payroll/employee_state_payroll_tax.py:** TaxUnit. Documentation: \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions, aggregated from jurisdiction-specific rules.\" Its adds list includes pa_employee_state_payroll_tax among 14 states.\n- **Employer-side files:** taxable_wage_base.yaml ($10,000, cites UC Law s. 4(x)(1)) and default_rate.yaml (0.0382) are used only by pa_employer_state_unemployment_tax, not by the employee formula.\n- **Test** tests/policy/baseline/gov/states/pa/tax/payroll/unemployment/pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution.yaml: 2026 with $27,000 gives 18.90; 2022 gives 16.20.\n- None of the PA files I read contain a 'maximum permitted employee share' assumption like the Minnesota variable's. The PA contribution is modeled as a flat mandatory withholding.", + "caveats": [ + "Coverage: s. 301.4(a) applies only to wages for 'employment' as the Act defines it (s. 4(l)). DLI's UCP-36 handbook lists common exclusions with no withholding: clergy and religious organizations, students working for their school, a sole proprietor's spouse or minor children, commission-only real estate and insurance agents, domestic workers paid under $1,000 a quarter, small agricultural employers, elected officials and inmates. The engine applies 0.07% to all positive employment_income of PA residents. For the benchmark's plain-wage households this is the standard case.", + "Where the work is done, not where the worker lives: UC coverage follows employment localized in PA (UCP-36 refers to the 'Localized and Nonlocalized Employment' pamphlet), while the engine keys on household state_code. A PA resident working in another state would generally not have PA UC withholding, and a nonresident working in PA would. The benchmark prompt gives only the state, so residence = work state is the natural reading.", + "I did not verify this session whether federal civilian or railroad employment falls outside PA UC coverage.", + "No employer-size threshold, private/self-insured plan alternative or collective-bargaining opt-out exists for this contribution. Withholding applies to reimbursable employers (nonprofits and governments) as well as contributory employers, and DLI says it is not subject to appeal. Unlike Minnesota-style employer pass-through programs, there is no 'up to' employee share.", + "Rate mechanics: s. 301.4(a) points to the s. 301.7 trigger schedule, and s. 301.8 redetermines the employe tax every five years to yield $230M. On their face the s. 301.7(b) schedule numbers (e.g. 0.05% for a 110-125% trigger) differ from the published 0.07%, because the s. 301.8 redetermined rates replace them for the five-year period. I read s. 301.7/301.8 only in DLI's 2022 compilation, which says it is not an official copy. I checked s. 301.4 itself against the official palegis.us text.", + "Post-cutoff material: the DLI 'Calculating Contributions' page now says 0.07% for calendar year 2027, an update after July 2026. The UCP-36 handbook I downloaded is marked REV 06-26, and its PDF was created 2026-07-14, so I used it only for mechanics, not for the rate. The 2026 rate rests on pre-cutoff sources: UC-749/UC-748 REV 09-25 (September 2025) and the BCPO memo of 2026-01-13.", + "Failure to withhold: s. 301.4(c) subjects the employer and its officers and agents to penalty and collection provisions (ss. 301(a)(2), 308-309). The statute text I read does not say who owes an unwithheld amount; the employee's s. 301.4(a) obligation stands either way.", + "WebFetch quotes of DLI HTML pages come from a model-mediated page extraction. I extracted the PDF quotes (statute compilation, UC-749, UC-748, BCPO memo, UCP-36) directly with pdftotext. An attempt to fetch Wayback snapshots of the DLI HTML pages from before the cutoff did not finish." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "This is a mandatory employee contribution collected by mandatory employer withholding, not an optional employer pass-through.\n\n- **Who owes it:** UC Law s. 301.4(a) (43 P.S. s. 781.4) says each employe \"shall pay\" contributions on all wages for covered employment, \"without regard to\" the $10,000 s. 4(x)(1) limit.\n- **How it is collected:** s. 301.4(b) says each employer \"shall withhold, in trust\" the contributions and send them to the Department. Section 301.4(c) penalizes failing to withhold.\n- **Employer election:** I found no provision letting an employer pay the employee contribution instead of withholding it, in the statute, in the 34 Pa. Code ch. 63 table of contents, or on the DLI pages. DLI says all employers, reimbursable ones included, must withhold.\n- **2026 rate:** 0.07% of gross wages with no cap. Sources are DLI's UC-749 REV 09-25 rate chart (created September 2025; it records the July 1, 2025 trigger at 119%) and a PA Office of the Budget memo of January 13, 2026. Both predate 2026-07-03.\n- **Engine:** pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution = 0.0007 x employment_income, with no cap.\n- **Engine vs. law:** scenario_028 is $60,000 x 0.0007 = $42.00, and scenario_123 is $145,000 x 0.0007 = $101.50. Both match the law exactly, and I confirmed both by running the engine. Because the rate is flat and uncapped, the result does not depend on how wages are split.\n- **Main caveat:** the engine applies the rate to all wages of PA residents. The law applies to covered employment localized in PA and excludes listed services such as clergy, student workers and family employment." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "Section 301.4. Contributions by Employes.--(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of this act, each employe shall pay contributions", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "of all wages paid for \"employment\" as defined by the act without regard to the limitation specified in section 4(x)(1) of this act.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "(b) Each employer subject to this act shall be responsible for withholding and shall withhold, in trust, such contributions from the wages of his employes at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "who violates the trust provision of this section, fails to withhold, hold in trust or fails to transmit to the department all contributions withheld from the wages of his employes", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "if the trigger percentage as of July 1 of the preceding calendar year is less than two hundred fifty per centum (250%), the rates determined under paragraph (3) shall apply.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "the employe tax under section 301.4 shall yield two hundred thirty million dollars ($230,000,000)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "\"Contributions\" also means, where appropriate in this act, money payments required to be paid into the Unemployment Compensation Fund by employes as provided in this act.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "(1) For purposes of paying employer contributions, that part of the remuneration paid to an individual by each of his employers during a calendar year that exceeds", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "(3) The payment by an employer (without deduction from remuneration of the employe) of the tax imposed upon an employe under section three thousand one hundred one of the Federal Internal Revenue Code", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "For the periods in which employee contributions are in effect, all employers are required to withhold employee contributions at the time wages are paid, regardless of whether an employer is contributory or reimbursable.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/yearly-tax-highlights", + "quote": "Employee contributions (UC withholding) is 0.07 percent (70 cents per $1,000 gross wages). This applies to all employees, including employees of reimbursable employers, and is not subject to appeal.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/reimbursable-employers", + "quote": "When applicable, all employers are required to withhold employee contributions at the time wages are paid, regardless of the method used to pay UC liability.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/calculating-contributions--penalties-and-interest", + "quote": "The employee contribution rate has been set at 0.07 percent for the calendar year 2027.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-749%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "Employee Withholding on Gross Wages [A] ... 2026 .0007 ... A. No cap on gross wages for employee withholding. ... The Trigger Percentage as of July 1, 2025 calculated to 119%", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-748%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "THERE IS A 9.2% SURCHARGE ADJUSTMENT, 0.60% ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND 0.0% INTEREST FACTOR IN EFFECT FOR 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/budget/documents/for-commonwealth-agencies-and-employees/for-agencies/payroll/payroll-memo-26-01-federal-withholding-state-unemployment-tax-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The Department of Labor and Industry confirmed that the employee Unemployment Tax will remain at .07 percent for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/ucp-forms/ucp-36.pdf", + "quote": "Both reimbursable and contributory employers are required to withhold employee contributions from each employee's gross wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/uc_law.pdf", + "quote": "the secretary shall redetermine the rates of the surcharge, employe tax, additional contributions and benefit reduction otherwise applicable under sections 301.7 and 404(e)(4)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pabull?file=/secure/pabulletin/data/vol56/56-3/88.html", + "quote": "The trigger percentage calculated by the Secretary on July 1, 2025, was not at least 250%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/034/chapter63/chap63toc.html", + "quote": "(No quote. The 34 Pa. Code ch. 63 table of contents has no section on s. 301.4 employee contributions, withholding, or an employer paying the employee share.)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None that change the classification or the amounts. 2026 employee rate 0.07% (.0007) with no wage cap is confirmed by UC-749 REV 09-25 (PDF created 2025-09-17, modified 2025-09-22; server Last-Modified 2025-11-07), the BCPO memo dated 2026-01-13 (server Last-Modified 2026-01-13), and DLI's yearly highlights page. All predate 2026-07-03.", + "Engine amounts reproduced this session with policyengine-us 2.15.17: $60,000 gives 42.0; $145,000 gives 101.5; $100,000 + $45,000 gives 70.00 + 31.50 = 101.5. Both match 0.0007 x gross wages, so they agree with the law.", + "Small imprecision in the research's rate mechanics: it says the s. 301.8 redetermined rates 'replace' the s. 301.7(b) schedule for the five-year period. The official text of s. 301.8(b)(1) applies the redetermined rates only when the trigger percentage as of July 1 of the preceding year is below 250%. That condition holds for 2026: the trigger was 119% (UC-749), and the PA Bulletin (56 Pa.B. 448) says it 'was not at least 250%'. The conclusion stands. Without s. 301.8, the s. 301.7(b)(3) schedule alone would give 0.05% at a 119% trigger.", + "Statute dating: the research says s. 301.4 was 'last amended July 2, 2013 (P.L.195, No.34)'. The official text also shows later amendments: (e)(2) amended, and (f), (g) and (h) added, by Act 1 of 2017 and Act 60 of 2017 (Dec. 20, 2017, P.L.1191). Subsections (a) and (b), which set the employee liability, the no-cap base and the withholding duty, are not affected. The cutoff conclusion is unchanged." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "s. 301.4(a) quote is not exactly verbatim. The research quotes 'Each employe shall pay contributions at a rate ...'. The official palegis.us text reads '(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of this act, each employe shall pay contributions at a rate of zero per centum (0.0%) for calendar year 1989 and at a rate as set forth in section 301.7 ...'. 'Each' is capitalized in the research but lowercase in the source, and the 'Notwithstanding' clause in front of it is left out. The meaning is unchanged; the omitted clause actually strengthens the mandate. Every other word in the quote matches, and the ellipsis is used correctly.", + "The research cites the s. 301.8(a), 301.8(b)(3) and 4(x)(1) quotes only to the DLI compilation (uc_law.pdf), which says it is 'NOT an OFFICIAL copy'. I confirmed all three verbatim in the official palegis.us text: s. 301.8 in Chapter 3 and s. 4(x)(1) in the Chapter 1 definitions. The quotes are correct; only the source cited is weaker than it needs to be.", + "All other quotes were confirmed verbatim at their URLs by direct download: the 301.4(b) and 301.4(c) quotes, DLI employee-withholding (2 quotes), reimbursable-employers, yearly-tax-highlights, calculating-contributions, UC-749, UC-748, BCPO memo, UCP-36 and the PA Bulletin 56-3/88. The calculating-contributions page's '2027' sentence is post-cutoff content, as the research itself says." + ], + "reasoning": "I could not refute the classification. I read the official PA General Assembly text of UC Law Article III (Chapter 3) in full for ss. 301, 301.4, 301.7 and 301.8, and the Article I s. 4 definitions (Chapter 1) myself.\n\nWhat the statute says:\n- **Who owes it.** s. 301.4(a) begins 'Notwithstanding any other provision of this act, each employe shall pay contributions', on all wages for 'employment' and without regard to the s. 4(x)(1) $10,000 limit. That is a direct liability on the employee.\n- **How it is collected.** s. 301.4(b) says each employer 'shall be responsible for withholding and shall withhold, in trust' those contributions from wages when the wages are paid.\n- **Penalty.** s. 301.4(c) applies penalties to an employer or officer who 'fails to withhold'.\n- **Definitions.** s. 4(g) says 'Contributions' also means payments 'required to be paid ... by employes'.\n- **Kept separate from the employer premium.** s. 301.6(d) treats 'employe contributions under section 301.4' separately from employer liability.\n\nWhat I searched for and did not find:\n- I searched Chapter 3 for 'deduct', 'withh', 'in lieu', 'on behalf of', 'without deduction', 'may pay' and 'employe shall'. No 'may deduct' language and no employer-election clause turned up.\n- The only 'without deduction' text is s. 4(x)(3). It covers an employer paying the federal FICA employee tax, which is a wage-definition exclusion and has nothing to do with this contribution.\n- The 34 Pa. Code ch. 63 table of contents has no rule on employee contributions.\n- DLI pages say all employers, reimbursable ones included, must withhold, and that the contribution 'is not subject to appeal'.\n\nContext in the law:\n- There is no employer-size threshold, private-plan alternative or collective-bargaining opt-out.\n- The 2026 rate of 0.07% follows from s. 301.8(b)(1): the trigger was 119%, below 250%, so the redetermined rates apply. The figure itself is published in UC-749 REV 09-25 (September 2025) and the BCPO memo (January 13, 2026), both before the 2026-07-03 cutoff.\n\nWhat I confirmed in the engine source:\n- pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution = employee_rate x max_(0, employment_income). It has no cap and no employer-share input.\n- The employee_rate parameter gives 0.0007 from 2023 on.\n- employee_state_payroll_tax adds pa_employee_state_payroll_tax.\n- Running the engine gives 42.0 for scenario_028 and 101.5 for scenario_123, both exact matches to 0.0007 x wages.\n- Unlike the Minnesota variable, the PA files contain no 'maximum permitted employee share' assumption.\n\nRemaining issues are minor and do not change the classification:\n- The capitalization in the s. 301.4(a) quote.\n- The imprecise 'last amended 2013' date.\n- The research's coverage caveats, which I agree with: the engine keys on residence, not on where the work is localized, and it does not apply the s. 4(l) service exclusions." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of this act, each employe shall pay contributions at a rate of zero per centum (0.0%) for calendar year 1989 and at a rate as set forth in section 301.7 for each calendar year thereafter", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "(b) Each employer subject to this act shall be responsible for withholding and shall withhold, in trust, such contributions from the wages of his employes at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "who violates the trust provision of this section, fails to withhold, hold in trust or fails to transmit to the department all contributions withheld ... shall be subject to the provisions of clause (2) of subsection (a) of section 301 and sections 308, 308.1, 308.2, 308.3 and 309", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "Beginning in 1992 and each fifth year thereafter, the secretary shall redetermine the rates of the surcharge, employe tax, additional contributions and benefit reduction otherwise applicable under sections 301.7 and 404(e)(4).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=3", + "quote": "The rates as redetermined shall take effect on January 1 of the following calendar year and shall remain in effect for five years.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "\"Contributions\" also means, where appropriate in this act, money payments required to be paid into the Unemployment Compensation Fund by employes as provided in this act.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "(1) For purposes of paying employer contributions, that part of the remuneration paid to an individual by each of his employers during a calendar year that exceeds", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.palegis.us/statutes/unconsolidated/law-information/view-statute?iFrame=true&txtType=HTM&yr=1936&sessInd=2&smthLwInd=2&act=001&chpt=1", + "quote": "(6) Service performed in the employ of the United States Government or of an instrumentality of the United States exempt under the Constitution of the United States from the contributions imposed by this act", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "For the periods in which employee contributions are in effect, all employers are required to withhold employee contributions at the time wages are paid, regardless of whether an employer is contributory or reimbursable.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "Failure to withhold employee contributions and to promptly pay such contributions withheld in trust can result in civil fines and/or criminal prosecution of the employer and/or personal liability", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/employee-withholding", + "quote": "Employee contributions are based on an individual's total (gross) wages and are not limited to the taxable wage base in effect for employer contributions.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/reimbursable-employers", + "quote": "When applicable, all employers are required to withhold employee contributions at the time wages are paid, regardless of the method used to pay UC liability.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/yearly-tax-highlights", + "quote": "Employee contributions (UC withholding) is 0.07 percent (70 cents per $1,000 gross wages). This applies to all employees, including employees of reimbursable employers, and is not subject to appeal.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-749%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "Employee Withholding on Gross Wages [A] ... 2026 ... .0007 ... A. No cap on gross wages for employee withholding. ... The Trigger Percentage as of July 1, 2025 calculated to 119%", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/employer/uc-tax-rates/uc-748%20rev%2009-25.pdf", + "quote": "THERE IS A 9.2% SURCHARGE ADJUSTMENT, 0.60% ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS AND 0.0% INTEREST FACTOR IN EFFECT FOR 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/budget/documents/for-commonwealth-agencies-and-employees/for-agencies/payroll/payroll-memo-26-01-federal-withholding-state-unemployment-tax-2026.pdf", + "quote": "The Department of Labor and Industry confirmed that the employee Unemployment Tax will remain at .07 percent for 2026.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pabull?file=/secure/pabulletin/data/vol56/56-3/88.html", + "quote": "The trigger percentage calculated by the Secretary on July 1, 2025, was not at least 250%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/agencies/dli/resources/for-employers-and-educators/how-to-file/uc-tax/calculating-contributions--penalties-and-interest", + "quote": "Employers covered under the PA UC Law are responsible for withholding employee contributions from each employee's gross wages. The employee contribution rate is determined annually.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/ucp-forms/ucp-36.pdf", + "quote": "Both reimbursable and contributory employers are required to withhold employee contributions from each employee's gross wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/034/chapter63/chap63toc.html", + "quote": "(No operative quote.) I searched the full text of 34 Pa. Code ch. 63 for withholding and employee contributions. The only hit is \u00a7 63.99(1), on experience rating after a reimbursable election. Nothing lets an employer pay the employee share instead of withholding it.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pacodeandbulletin.gov/Display/pacode?file=/secure/pacode/data/034/chapter61/chap61toc.html", + "quote": "(No operative quote.) 34 Pa. Code ch. 61 (including \u00a7 61.3 Wages) and ch. 65 have no provision on s. 301.4 withholding or on an employer paying the employee share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dli/documents/uc/uc_law.pdf", + "quote": "the employe tax under section 301.4 shall yield two hundred thirty million dollars ($230,000,000)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. The 2026 rate is 0.0007 (0.07%) of all gross wages in covered employment, with no cap. Sources: UC-749 REV 09-25 (PDF created 2025-09-17, modified 2025-09-22, server Last-Modified 2025-11-07), the BCPO memo #26-01 dated 2026-01-13 (Last-Modified 2026-01-13), and the DLI yearly highlights page (undated; 0.07% for 2026). The trigger fact is in 56 Pa.B. 448 (Jan 17, 2026), and the official statute supports the rest. All of these predate 2026-07-03.", + "Rate mechanics, verified on the official palegis.us text: s. 301.8(a) and (d) redetermine the employe tax every fifth June 30 (\u20262017, 2022, 2027\u2026), effective the next Jan 1 for five years. The 2022 redetermination therefore fixes 2023-2027. This matches DLI's table (0.06% for 2018-2022, 0.07% for 2023 and later). Under s. 301.8(b)(1), the redetermined rate applies because the July 1, 2025 trigger (119%) was below 250%, so the s. 301.7(b)(3) schedule rate of 0.05% does not apply.", + "scenario_028: $60,000 x 0.0007 = $42.00. I re-ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 this session: pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution = 42.0, employee_state_payroll_tax = 42.0. Matches.", + "scenario_123: the benchmark prompt gives the head $100,000, the spouse $0, and Child 1 (age 16, a tax-unit member) $45,000. $100,000 x 0.0007 = $70.00 and $45,000 x 0.0007 = $31.50, total $101.50. Engine re-run: person values [70.0, 0, 31.499998], employee_state_payroll_tax = 101.5. Matches. The child's wages count because 'employe' includes minors (s. 4(i)). The s. 4(l)(4)(5) exclusion covers a child under 18 only when the child works for a parent, and the prompt does not say that.", + "Small rounding note: DLI requires withholding to be computed each payroll period and rounded to the cent. Actual annual withholding can therefore differ from the flat annual product by a few cents, well within $1.", + "Unverified: whether the 2022 redetermination used s. 301.8(b)(2) (target $166,666,666) or (b)(3) (target $230M) depends on the s. 301.8(b)(4) year, which turns on whether there are no federal advances and no outstanding bonds. The research cites only (b)(3). This does not change the published 0.07%." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "The s. 301.4(a) quote starts 'Each employe shall pay contributions\u2026' with a capital E and leaves out the leading clause. The official text reads '(a) Notwithstanding any other provision of this act, each employe shall pay contributions\u2026'. The substance matches. This is a capitalization and truncation issue, not a fabrication.", + "The research says s. 301.4 was 'last amended July 2, 2013 (P.L.195, No.34)'. The palegis.us text shows later changes: (e)(2) was amended by Act 1 and Act 60 of 2017, (f) was added by Act 1 of 2017, and (g) and (h) were added by Act 60 of 2017. Subsections (a)-(c) are unaffected, so the error does not touch the operative text.", + "A caveat says ss. 301.7/301.8 were read only in DLI's unofficial 2022 compilation. Both sections are on the official palegis.us Chapter 3 page. I confirmed the s. 301.8(a) quote and the s. 301.8(b)(3) $230M quote there verbatim. The s. 4(x)(1) quote is also verbatim on the official Chapter 1 page. The caveat can be dropped.", + "An open caveat ('did not verify whether federal civilian or railroad employment falls outside PA UC coverage') is resolved by the official Chapter 1 text. Section 4(l)(4)(6) excludes service for the United States Government. A separate s. 4(l)(4) clause excludes service subject to the Railroad Unemployment Insurance Act. This is a coverage limit the engine does not model. It does not affect the benchmark's unspecified-employer households.", + "UCP-36 is REV 06-26 (PDF created 2026-07-14, Last-Modified 2026-07-14), which is after the cutoff. A search snippet titles the same URL 'REV 01/2026', so an earlier version likely existed, but I could not retrieve it. The research uses UCP-36 only for mechanics, which is appropriate.", + "I could not confirm pre-cutoff Wayback snapshots of the undated DLI HTML pages (archive.org returned 429). The pre-cutoff support for the 2026 rate rests on the UC-749/UC-748 PDFs, the BCPO memo and the statute.", + "I confirmed every other quote in the research verbatim from raw downloads (curl plus HTML or pdftotext extraction). This covers palegis s. 301.4(b) and (c), the DLI employee-withholding, reimbursable-employers, yearly-highlights and calculating-contributions pages, UC-749, UC-748, the BCPO memo, UCP-36 and 56 Pa.B. 448." + ], + "reasoning": "Administration lens. On 'may' versus 'must', every primary source I read uses mandatory language and none uses 'may'. The statute (s. 301.4(b), official palegis.us text) says the employer 'shall be responsible for withholding and shall withhold, in trust'. DLI's employee-withholding page says 'all employers are required to withhold \u2026 regardless of whether an employer is contributory or reimbursable'. The reimbursable-employers page says the same, 'regardless of the method used to pay UC liability'. The yearly highlights say the contribution 'applies to all employees \u2026 and is not subject to appeal'. UCP-36 says both employer types 'are required to withhold'.\n\nThe liability sits on the employee: s. 301.4(a) says 'each employe shall pay contributions'. Section 4(g) defines 'Contributions' to include 'money payments required to be paid \u2026 by employes'. This is a separate employee tax, not a share of an employer premium. DLI says it is not credited to the employer's reserve account, and it is not a FUTA-certified contribution.\n\nOn whether an employer can choose to pay it, I found no provision allowing that. I checked s. 301.4, the full text of 34 Pa. Code chs. 61, 63 and 65, and the DLI employer pages. The only 'employer pays without deduction' language is s. 4(x)(3), and it concerns the federal FICA employee tax. I found no express prohibition either. The mandatory 'shall withhold' plus the s. 301.4(c) penalty for failing to withhold leave no lawful opt-out.\n\nOn employee liability if nothing is withheld, the statute is silent. Enforcement through s. 301.4(c), and from there ss. 301(a)(2), 308-309, runs against the employer and its officers and agents (interest, liens, civil collection, injunction). DLI warns of fines, prosecution and personal liability for the employer and its officers. I found no rule making the employee pay an unwithheld amount and no employer recovery right. The employee's s. 301.4(a) duty stands regardless. This gap does not turn the program into an optional pass-through, because the employer has no discretion.\n\nThe 2026 rate, the absence of a cap and the employer-only $10,000 base are confirmed by pre-cutoff primary sources. Section 301.8's five-year redetermination explains why 0.07% runs from 2023 through 2027.\n\nEngine: I read the installed 2.15.17 source. pa_employee_unemployment_compensation_contribution = employee_rate x max_(0, employment_income); employee_rate is 0.0007 from 2023-01-01; there is no cap and no covered-employment or work-location test. pa_employee_state_payroll_tax adds only that variable, and employee_state_payroll_tax lists it among 14 states. The PA files carry no 'maximum permitted employee share' assumption. That phrase appears in the MN, MA, ME, DE and VT files, not PA.\n\nI re-ran both households: 42.0 and 101.5 (70.00 for the head plus 31.50 for the 16-year-old child), both matching the law exactly. Remaining caveats limit coverage and do not change the classification. The engine ignores covered-employment exclusions such as federal civilian service, railroad service, family employment and clergy, and it ignores work-state localization. The benchmark households are plain wage earners with unspecified employers.\n\nThe citation problems I found are small: a capitalization and truncation in one quote, an incomplete amendment history, and an outdated caveat. None undermines a key quote or the classification. Not refuted." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "NJ", + "research": { + "program": "New Jersey Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI, State plan) and Family Leave Insurance (FLI, Family Temporary Disability Leave Account) worker contributions", + "state": "NJ", + "engine_variables": [ + "nj_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution", + "nj_employee_family_leave_insurance_contribution", + "nj_temporary_disability_insurance_taxable_wages", + "nj_family_leave_insurance_taxable_wages", + "nj_employee_state_payroll_tax", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "gov.states.nj.tax.payroll.temporary_disability_insurance.employee_rate", + "gov.states.nj.tax.payroll.family_leave_insurance.employee_rate", + "gov.states.nj.tax.payroll.temporary_disability_insurance.taxable_wage_base" + ], + "premium_liability": "The worker. Under N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i), each worker of a covered employer \"shall ... make contributions\" to the State disability benefits fund (TDI). Under (G)(ii), each worker \"shall contribute\" to the Family Temporary Disability Leave Account (FLI). Under 43:21-7(d)(1)(E), the employer must withhold those contributions in trust from wages and send them to the controller. The employer owes its own separate TDI contribution under 43:21-7(e)(1), which \"shall not be deducted\" from wages. FLI has no employer contribution at all. The liability moves to the employer only as a sanction: if it fails to deduct by the next payroll, \"he alone shall thereafter be liable\", and the amount is treated as an employer contribution for collection. Under an approved private plan, the employer funds the benefits. The employer may then charge employees up to the State-plan worker rate, or charge them nothing.", + "employee_share_rule": "employee_must_contribute", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i) (TDI worker contributions), NJDOL compilation of the Unemployment Compensation Law, Dec 2024, p.52", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "Each worker ... unless the employer is covered by an approved private disability plan or is exempt ... shall, for calendar year 2012 and each subsequent calendar year, make contributions to the State disability benefits fund", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(ii) (FLI worker contributions), p.53", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "Each worker shall contribute to the State disability benefits fund, in addition to any amount contributed pursuant to subparagraph (i) ... unless the employer is covered by an approved private disability plan for benefits during periods of family temporary disability leave.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(E) (mandatory employer withholding), p.51", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "Each employer shall, notwithstanding any provision of law in this State to the contrary, withhold in trust the amount of his workers' contributions from their wages at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(E) (consequence of failure to deduct), p.51", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "If any employer fails to deduct the contributions of any of his workers ... or fails to make a deduction therefor at the time wages are paid for the next succeeding payroll period, he alone shall thereafter be liable", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(b)(4) (worker TDI/FLI wage base), p.~39", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "for purposes of contributions of workers to the State disability benefits fund, including the \"Family Temporary Disability Leave Account\" ... shall be 107 times the Statewide average weekly remuneration paid to workers by employers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(e)(1) (employer TDI contribution is separate and may not be passed to workers), p.56", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "Such contributions shall become due and be paid by the employer to the controller ... and shall not be deducted, in whole or in part, from the remuneration of individuals in his employ.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-32(d) (private plans: cap on employee cost), NJDOL TDB Law compilation, July 2020, p.12", + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB Law July 2020.pdf", + "quote": "no greater amount is required to be paid by employees toward the cost of benefits than that prescribed by law as the amount of worker contribution to the State disability benefits fund for covered individuals under the State plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-33 (private plans: employer MAY collect employee contributions), TDB Law compilation p.13", + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB Law July 2020.pdf", + "quote": "the employer may during the continuance of the approved private plan collect the required contributions thereto by deduction from the wages paid to covered individuals under such plan, which deduction may be combined with that deduction required by Revised Statutes, section 43:21-7(d)(1)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-27(a)(1) (FLI covered employer includes non-electing governmental employers; TDI excludes them unless elected)", + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB Law July 2020.pdf", + "quote": "including any governmental entity or instrumentality which is an employer under R.S.43:21-19(h)(5), notwithstanding that the governmental entity or instrumentality has not elected to be a covered employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "N.J.S.A. 43:21-31 (religious exemption)", + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB Law July 2020.pdf", + "quote": "Such person shall thereupon be exempt from the provisions of this act, including any obligation to make contributions hereunder and any right to receive benefits hereunder.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "57 N.J.R. 1913(a), Sept 2, 2025 (proposed N.J.A.C. 12:15-1.3, 2026 taxable wage base)", + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/assets/PDFs/Legal%20Notices/Notices%20of%20Proposal/57%20N.J.R.%201913_a_.pdf", + "quote": "The new taxable wage base would be $ 44,800 for contributions pursuant to the Unemployment Compensation Law and $ 171,100 for contributions to the State Disability Benefits Fund, including the Family Temporary Disability Leave Account.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/employer/index.shtml", + "quote": "Employees: 0.19% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $325.09). [TDI] ... Employees: 0.23% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $393.53). [FLI] ... Employers: No contribution. [FLI]", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/tdi/", + "quote": "workers contribute 0.19% on the first $171,100 (wage cap) in covered wages earned during this calendar year. The maximum worker contribution for 2026 is $325.09.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/fli/", + "quote": "The family leave program is financed 100% by worker payroll deductions. Employers do not contribute to the program.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "quote": "2026 Taxable Wage Base (TDI , FLI \u2013 workers only): $171,100", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20251229_newbenefitrates2026.shtml", + "quote": "The taxable wage base for workers covered under the Temporary Disability Insurance and Family Leave Insurance programs increases to $171,100 in 2026 from $165,400 in 2025.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/ea/Employer%20Informational%20Packet%20.pdf", + "quote": "Employers have the right to deduct worker contributions from wages paid, but the deduction must be made from the current or next succeeding payroll and noted on the payroll records.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/help/employer_handbook/income_security.shtml", + "quote": "Workers' contribution must not exceed those required under the State Plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://business.nj.gov/recent/unemployment-and-disability-insurance-rates-increased-for-2026", + "quote": "The Temporary Disability and Family Leave Insurance taxable wage base increased to $171,100 (from $165,400)", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "Under the State plan: no. The statute grants no election. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i)-(ii) imposes the contribution on each worker, and 43:21-7(d)(1)(E) says the employer \"shall ... withhold in trust\" the workers' contributions, \"notwithstanding any provision of law ... to the contrary\". In practice an employer can end up bearing the worker share: if it fails to deduct by the next succeeding payroll, \"he alone shall thereafter be liable\" and cannot recover the amount. The statute frames that as the consequence of a failure, not as an authorized option. NJDOL's employer packet (2012, revised 2019) does describe deduction as a \"right\". Under an approved private plan (TDI and/or FLI): yes. The employer funds the plan and \"may\" collect employee contributions by payroll deduction (43:21-33), capped at the State-plan worker rate (43:21-32(d)). It may therefore charge less or nothing (a non-contributory plan). Sources: N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(E), (G); 43:21-32(d); 43:21-33.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "Worker: TDI 0.19% and FLI 0.23%, total 0.42% of covered wages up to the wage base. The employer's separate TDI rate is 0.10% to 0.75% on the first $44,800 per employee (NJDOL employer page). There is no employer FLI contribution. Neither employer figure is part of the employee share.", + "max_employee_share": "State plan: TDI 0.19% x $171,100 = $325.09; FLI 0.23% x $171,100 = $393.53; combined $718.62 per worker per year. These are required amounts, not caps, under the State plan. Under an approved private plan, they cap what employees may be charged (43:21-32(d)).", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$171,100 (2026) for worker TDI and FLI contributions. Statutory formula, 43:21-7(b)(4): 107 x the Statewide average weekly remuneration, rounded up to the next $100, and never lower than the prior year. A worker who pays above the maximum across multiple employers can claim a refund (43:21-7(d)(3)(A)-(B)).", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/assets/PDFs/Legal%20Notices/Notices%20of%20Proposal/57%20N.J.R.%201913_a_.pdf", + "published": "2025-09-02 (57 N.J.R. 1913(a), proposal of the $171,100 wage base under N.J.A.C. 12:15-1.3; comments due 2025-11-01; adoption notice not fetched)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20251229_newbenefitrates2026.shtml", + "published": "2025-12-29 (NJDOL press release, wage base $171,100; does not state the worker rates)" + }, + { + "url": "https://business.nj.gov/recent/unemployment-and-disability-insurance-rates-increased-for-2026", + "published": "2026-01-09 (NJ Business Action Center, wage base)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/employer/index.shtml", + "published": "undated NJDOL page (2026 worker rates 0.19% / 0.23% and maximums $325.09 / $393.53)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "published": "undated NJDOL page (TDI 0.0019, FLI 0.0023 for Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2026; wage base $171,100)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nfp.com/insights/nj-announces-2026-disability-and-family-leave-contribution-rates/", + "published": "2025-11-04 (secondary, broker article attributing 0.19% / 0.23% for 2026 to NJDOL; used only to date the rates' publication)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "Yes. The wage base was proposed in the NJ Register on 2025-09-02 and announced by NJDOL on 2025-12-29. The 0.19% and 0.23% worker rates appear on undated official NJDOL pages. A secondary source dated 2025-11-04 reports them. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i)-(ii) requires the estimated rates to be posted on the department's website no later than 60 days after the end of the preceding fiscal year. All three figures predate 2026-07-03. I could not get a dated official NJDOL source for the rates themselves; the Wayback Machine was unreachable." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_008 (TDI)", + "engine_amount": 50.92, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 50.92, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Law: 0.0019 x min($26,800, $171,100) = 0.0019 x 26,800 = $50.92. The engine returned 50.920002 when I ran it this session (NJ, age 40, employment_income $26,800, 2026, policyengine-us 2.15.17). It is the State-plan required worker contribution, so the difference is $0.00." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_008 (FLI)", + "engine_amount": 61.64, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 61.64, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "Law: 0.0023 x min($26,800, $171,100) = 0.0023 x 26,800 = $61.64. The engine returned 61.640003, and nj_employee_state_payroll_tax returned 112.56 (= 50.92 + 61.64). The difference is $0.00. As the task notes, this output is already excluded from scoring because the engine has no NJ worker UI/WF/SWF variable. The nj/tax/payroll/unemployment directory contains only nj_employer_state_unemployment_tax and nj_taxable_earnings_for_state_unemployment_tax." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "I read these files this session under .../policyengine_us/variables/gov/states/nj/tax/payroll/ and parameters/gov/states/nj/tax/payroll/.\n- nj_employee_state_payroll_tax (Person, YEAR, defined_for NJ): label \"New Jersey employee state payroll tax\". Its documentation reads \"Employee-side New Jersey payroll-funded contributions, including temporary disability insurance and family leave insurance.\" It adds the TDI and FLI contribution variables.\n- nj_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution: documentation \"Employee-side New Jersey temporary disability insurance contribution.\" Formula: employee_rate x nj_temporary_disability_insurance_taxable_wages.\n- nj_temporary_disability_insurance_taxable_wages: min_(max_(0, employment_income), taxable_wage_base). Its documentation says the wages include federal pre-tax payroll deductions.\n- nj_employee_family_leave_insurance_contribution: documentation \"Employee-side New Jersey family leave insurance contribution.\" Formula: FLI employee_rate x nj_family_leave_insurance_taxable_wages. Those wages are computed the same way and use the TDI taxable_wage_base parameter.\n- Parameters: temporary_disability_insurance/employee_rate is 0 from 0000-01-01 and 0.0019 from 2026-01-01. family_leave_insurance/employee_rate is 0 from 0000-01-01 and 0.0023 from 2026-01-01. temporary_disability_insurance/taxable_wage_base (described as the base for both TDI and FLI) is 0 from 0000-01-01 and 171_100 from 2026-01-01.\n- References: NJ Unemployment Compensation Law R.S. 43:21-7 (nj.gov UI_statute.pdf, pages 46, 60 and 61) and the NJDOL TDI/FLI employer information page.\n- The NJ files contain no \"assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share\" language like Minnesota's. They model the State-plan rate as applying to every NJ wage earner, with no inputs for private plans, governmental employers, or exemptions.\n- The aggregator employee_state_payroll_tax (TaxUnit) lists nj_employee_state_payroll_tax among EMPLOYEE_STATE_PAYROLL_TAX_COMPONENTS. Its documentation reads \"Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions\".", + "caveats": [ + "Approved private plans (43:21-32, -33): an employer may replace the State plan for TDI, FLI or both. Its workers then pay no State-fund contribution for that program ((G)(i), (G)(ii)). Instead, the employer may charge them up to the State-plan worker rate, or nothing for a non-contributory plan. For those workers the employee share is optional for the employer, which is the one pass-through-like feature. The engine applies State-plan rates regardless.", + "Collective bargaining: if employees under a collective bargaining agreement are to contribute to a private plan, a majority must agree by written election, unless the agreement expressly waives that right (43:21-33). Employees not covered by an agreement need no consent.", + "Governmental employers: the State of New Jersey, Rutgers and NJIT are TDI covered employers. Other political subdivisions and instrumentalities are not covered for TDI unless they elect coverage (43:21-27(a)(1)-(2)), so their workers pay no TDI contribution. FLI covers governmental employers that are UI employers even without an election (43:21-27(a)(1); (G)(ii)).", + "Religious exemption (43:21-31): a person who relies on spiritual healing and files a waiver is exempt from the TDB Law, including any obligation to make contributions.", + "Employer status: worker contributions accrue only after the employer becomes an 'employer' subject to the UC law (43:21-19(h)). I did not verify the size or wage threshold for that status this session.", + "Failure to deduct: if the employer misses the current and next payroll, it alone is liable for the worker contributions (43:21-7(d)(1)(E)). A worker whose employer never deducted would actually pay $0.", + "Multiple employers: the $171,100 base applies per employer for withholding. A worker can claim a refund of anything above the annual maximum (43:21-7(d)(3)). The engine caps total employment_income per person, which matches the net after that refund.", + "Statute text came from NJDOL's official compilations: the Unemployment Compensation Law (Dec 2024) and the TDB Law (July 2020 compilation, PDF created Aug 2022). I did not fetch the NJ Legislature's statute database to check for amendments after those compilations, and I did not read the N.J.A.C. 12:16/12:18 rules (both PDFs were over the fetch size limit).", + "The engine's taxable wages are employment_income. Whether NJ 'wages' for TDI/FLI purposes include every federal pre-tax deduction (for example, section 125) was not verified this session.", + "Because the parameter values are 0 before 2026-01-01 (0000-01-01: 0), the engine yields zero NJ TDI/FLI worker contributions for years before 2026.", + "The NJ Division of Taxation 2026 W-2 notice (m6025-2026.pdf) confirms the $171,100 DI/FLI base, but its PDF is dated Aug 10, 2026, after the 2026-07-03 cutoff, so it is not used as a timing source." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "New Jersey TDI and FLI worker contributions are mandatory and owed by the employee, and the employer must withhold them; they are not an optional employer pass-through.\n- N.J.S.A. 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i) says each worker \"shall ... make contributions\" to the State disability benefits fund (TDI). (G)(ii) says each worker \"shall contribute\" to the Family Temporary Disability Leave Account (FLI).\n- 43:21-7(d)(1)(E) requires each employer, \"notwithstanding any provision of law ... to the contrary\", to \"withhold in trust\" those contributions from wages. If it fails to deduct by the next payroll, the employer alone becomes liable.\n- The employer's own TDI contribution (0.10% to 0.75% on $44,800) is separate and may not be deducted from wages. FLI is 100% worker-funded.\n- The one exception that makes the employee share optional is an approved private plan (43:21-32, -33). There the employer \"may\" collect employee contributions, capped at the State-plan worker rate, or charge nothing.\n- Other narrower carve-outs: non-electing local governmental employers (TDI only), the religious exemption, and collective-bargaining election rules for contributory private plans.\n\n2026 figures:\n- Worker TDI is 0.19% and FLI is 0.23% of the first $171,100, for maximums of $325.09 and $393.53.\n- The wage base was proposed in 57 N.J.R. 1913(a) on 2025-09-02 and announced by NJDOL on 2025-12-29.\n- The rates appear on undated NJDOL pages and were reported by 2025-11-04. All of this predates 2026-07-03.\n\nEngine check (policyengine-us 2.15.17, run this session) for scenario_008 ($26,800 wages):\n- TDI: 0.0019 x 26,800 = $50.92.\n- FLI: 0.0023 x 26,800 = $61.64.\n- Both match the law exactly.\n\nThe engine models the State-plan default for every NJ wage earner, which is the correct default given household-only prompts. It does not model private-plan, governmental-employer or exemption cases. Separately, it has no NJ worker UI/WF/SWF contribution variable." + }, + "verdicts": [ + { + "lens": "statute", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "(E) Each employer shall, notwithstanding any provision of law in this State to the contrary, withhold in trust the amount of his workers' contributions from their wages at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "unless the employer is covered by an approved private disability plan or is exempt ... shall, for calendar year 2012 and each subsequent calendar year, make contributions to the State disability benefits fund", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "(ii) Each worker shall contribute to the State disability benefits fund, in addition to any amount contributed pursuant to subparagraph (i) of this paragraph (1)(G)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "he alone shall thereafter be liable for such contributions, and for the purpose of R.S.43:21-14, such contributions shall be treated as employer's contributions required from him.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "(F) As used in this chapter (R.S.43:21-1 et seq.), except when the context clearly requires otherwise, the term \"contributions\" shall include the contributions of workers pursuant to this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "including any contribution which the employer is required to collect from his employees to pay into the funds", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "and shall not be deducted, in whole or in part, from the remuneration of individuals in his employ.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "for purposes of contributions of workers to the State disability benefits fund, including the \"Family Temporary Disability Leave Account\" ... shall be 107 times the Statewide average weekly remuneration paid to workers by employers", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "which deduction may be combined with that deduction required by Revised Statutes, section 43 :21-7(d)(1)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "Covered individuals so excluded shall be covered by the State plan and subject to the employee contribution required by law to be paid into the State disability benefits fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "no greater amount is required to be paid by employees toward the cost of benefits than that prescribed by law as the amount of worker contribution to the State disability benefits fund for covered individuals under the State plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "Such person shall thereupon be exempt from the provisions of this act, including any obligation to make contributions hereunder and any right to receive benefits hereunder.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "including any governmental entity or instrumentality which is an employer under R.S.43:21-19(h)(5), notwithstanding that the governmental entity or instrumentality has not elected to be a covered employer", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/ea/Employer%20Informational%20Packet%20.pdf", + "quote": "Employers have the right to deduct worker contributions from wages paid, but the deduction must be made from the current or next succeeding payroll and noted on the payroll records.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/employer/index.shtml", + "quote": "Employees: 0.19% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $325.09). ... Employers: No contribution. Employees: 0.23% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $393.53).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/tdi/", + "quote": "The maximum worker contribution for 2026 is $325.09. This contribution is in the form of a salary deduction that your employer takes from your weekly wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/fli/", + "quote": "The family leave program is financed 100% by worker payroll deductions. Employers do not contribute to the program.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "quote": "2026 Taxable Wage Base (TDI , FLI \u2013 workers only): $171,100", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/help/employer_handbook/taxes_wages.shtml", + "quote": "Worker contributions are to be deducted at the rates indicated [here], for the Health Care Subsidy Fund, Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund, Workforce Development Partnership Fund, and Family Leave Insurance", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/help/employer_handbook/income_security.shtml", + "quote": "Workers' contribution must not exceed those required under the State Plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/assets/PDFs/Legal%20Notices/Notices%20of%20Proposal/57%20N.J.R.%201913_a_.pdf", + "quote": "The new taxable wage base would be $ 44,800 for contributions pursuant to the Unemployment Compensation Law and $ 171,100 for contributions to the State Disability Benefits Fund, including the Family Temporary Disability Leave Account.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20251229_newbenefitrates2026.shtml", + "quote": "The taxable wage base for workers covered under the Temporary Disability Insurance and Family Leave Insurance programs increases to $171,100 in 2026 from $165,400 in 2025.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://business.nj.gov/recent/unemployment-and-disability-insurance-rates-increased-for-2026", + "quote": "The Temporary Disability and Family Leave Insurance taxable wage base increased to $171,100 (from $165,400).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nfp.com/insights/nj-announces-2026-disability-and-family-leave-contribution-rates/", + "quote": "The NJ Department of Labor and Workforce Development (LWD) announced the 2026 Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI) and Family Leave Insurance (FLI) contribution rates", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None on the amounts. I ran policyengine-us 2.15.17 from the triage venv this session for NJ, age 40, $26,800 employment_income, 2026. It returned TDI 50.920002, FLI 61.640003, and nj_employee_state_payroll_tax and employee_state_payroll_tax 112.560005. These equal 0.0019 x 26,800 and 0.0023 x 26,800. The 26,800 is below the $171,100 base, so the cap does not bind.", + "Timing of the 0.19% and 0.23% rates: I also found no dated official NJDOL source. The pages that state them (myleavebenefits employer, TDI and FLI worker pages, EA rate-info) are undated. The Dec 29, 2025 press release states only the wage base. The 'published before 2026-07-03' finding therefore rests on two things. First, the statutory duty in 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i)-(ii) to post estimated rates within 60 days after the fiscal year ends (about Aug 29, 2025). Second, the secondary NFP article dated 2025-11-04. The Wayback availability API lists a rate-info snapshot dated 20260101080705, but WebFetch cannot read web.archive.org, so I could not check its content.", + "The NFP article the research cites to date the rates gives a 'Taxable wage base: $43,300'. That is wrong for worker TDI/FLI, which is $171,100. The rates it reports (0.19%, 0.23%) match NJDOL, but the error makes it weak dating evidence.", + "The $171,100 wage base source 57 N.J.R. 1913(a) (Sept 2, 2025) is a proposal (PRN 2025-113; comments due Nov 1, 2025). I did not verify the adoption notice. NJDOL's Dec 29, 2025 press release and the Jan 9, 2026 business.nj.gov page confirm the figure, and both predate the cutoff.", + "Engine citation nit, which does not affect the amounts: the parameter references use UI_statute.pdf PDF pages #page=60 (TDI rate), #page=61 (FLI rate) and #page=46 (wage base). In the Dec 2024 PDF, (G)(i) starts on PDF p.61, (G)(ii) on PDF p.62 and (b)(4) on PDF p.47. Each is one page off." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "Every operative-text quote in the research appears verbatim at its URL. I checked them against the full text of the NJDOL UI law compilation (Dec 2024, 246 pp.) and the TDB Law compilation (July 2020; PDF created Aug 16, 2022), both extracted from the PDFs WebFetch saved.", + "Page number: the 43:21-7(e)(1) sentence 'Such contributions shall become due and be paid by the employer ... shall not be deducted' is on printed p.57 (PDF p.66), not p.56 as the research says.", + "Page number: 43:21-7(b)(4) is on printed p.38 (PDF p.47), not '~39'.", + "The TDI worker-page quote starts mid-sentence: the page reads 'For 2026, workers contribute 0.19% ...'. The wording is otherwise verbatim.", + "I could not check the NJ Legislature's official statute database: pub.njleg.gov, pub.njleg.state.nj.us and njleg.state.nj.us all refused connections (ECONNREFUSED), and Justia returned 403. So I could not independently rule out amendments after the compilations. Per the compilations' history lines, 43:21-7 was last amended by P.L.2020, c.150 (Dec 2024 compilation), and 43:21-32 and -33 by P.L.2019, c.37. A search summary describes P.L.2025, c.279 as a reinstatement and anti-retaliation act; I could not read its text.", + "The NJDOL employer handbook page (income_security.shtml) still says a contributory private plan needs a majority written election of employees. That predates P.L.2019, c.37, under which an election is needed only for employees under a collective bargaining agreement (43:21-33). The research's quote from that page is accurate, but the page is stale on this point.", + "I could not read N.J.A.C. 12:16 or 12:18: both NJDOL PDFs (NJAC.pdf, NJAdminCode 021825.pdf) exceed WebFetch's 10 MB limit. The research had the same gap." + ], + "reasoning": "I could not refute the research. The primary sources I read myself support 'mandatory_employee_withholding' for the State-plan TDI and FLI worker contributions the engine counts.\n\nStatute lens: I read all of 43:21-7(d)(1)(A)-(G), (d)(3)-(6), (e)(1)-(2) and (b)(4) in NJDOL's Dec 2024 compilation, plus 43:21-27(a)-(b), -31, -32, -33 and -34 in the TDB Law compilation. The mandatory language runs both ways:\n- Worker liability: (G)(i) says each worker 'shall ... make contributions'; (G)(ii) says each worker 'shall contribute'. (F) says 'contributions' in the chapter include workers' contributions.\n- Employer duty: (E) says each employer 'shall, notwithstanding any provision of law ... to the contrary, withhold in trust' the workers' contributions. It must also show the deduction on payroll records and transmit it.\n- Other sections confirm it. 43:21-14.4 (same compilation) refers to 'any contribution which the employer is required to collect from his employees' for the State disability benefits fund and the FLI account. 43:21-33 calls the State-plan withholding 'that deduction required by Revised Statutes, section 43:21-7(d)(1)'. 43:21-32 says workers excluded from a private plan are 'subject to the employee contribution required by law'.\n\nThe only 'may deduct' language in the chapter is in 43:21-33, and it applies only to an approved private plan. There the employer may collect contributions, capped at the State-plan worker rate by 43:21-32(d).\n\nThe two strongest refutation levers do not hold:\n- Failure to deduct: if the employer misses the current and next payroll, it 'alone shall thereafter be liable'. That is a sanction attached to a duty, not an election. The amount is then 'treated as employer's contributions' only for collection under 43:21-14.\n- The 'right to deduct' wording in NJDOL's 2012 employer packet (revised 2019): agency guidance phrasing cannot override the statute's 'shall withhold'. The same paragraph repeats the failure-to-deduct liability, and NJDOL's current worker pages describe the contribution as a salary deduction 'your employer takes'.\n\nThe employer's own TDI contribution under (e)(1) is separate and 'shall not be deducted' from wages. FLI has no employer contribution: the statute imposes (G)(ii) on workers only, and NJDOL confirms '100% by worker payroll deductions'.\n\nExceptions do not change the default for household-only prompts. These are approved private plans, non-electing local governmental employers (TDI only; FLI still applies under the second 'covered employer' definition in 43:21-27(a)(1)), the 43:21-31 religious waiver, and the collective bargaining election for contributory private plans. The research flagged each as a caveat accurately.\n\nEngine: I read every NJ payroll variable and parameter file and the employee_state_payroll_tax aggregator (TaxUnit; its documentation reads 'Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes ...'). The NJ files contain no 'maximum permitted employee share' assumption; that wording appears only in the MA, MN and VT files. Running the engine reproduced $50.92 TDI and $61.64 FLI for scenario_008. Both match 0.19% and 0.23% of $26,800.\n\nRemaining weaknesses are documentary, not substantive:\n- There is no dated official source for the 2026 worker rates. The statutory posting deadline and a Nov 2025 secondary article support pre-cutoff publication.\n- The wage-base rule is cited as a proposal, and I did not verify its adoption.\n- The NJ Legislature's site was unreachable, so I could not rule out post-compilation amendments.\n- Two page cites are slightly off." + }, + { + "lens": "administration", + "refuted": false, + "your_classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "evidence": [ + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "(E) Each employer shall, notwithstanding any provision of law in this State to the contrary, withhold in trust the amount of his workers' contributions from their wages at the time such wages are paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "If any employer fails to deduct the contributions of any of his workers at the time their wages are paid, or fails to make a deduction therefor at the time wages are paid for the next succeeding payroll period, he alone shall thereafter be liable for such contributions", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myunemployment/assets/pdfs/UI_statute.pdf", + "quote": "(ii) Each worker shall contribute to the State disability benefits fund, in addition to any amount contributed pursuant to subparagraph (i) of this paragraph (1)(G)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/new-jersey/N-J-A-C-12-16-9-1", + "quote": "(a) Every employer shall withhold workers' contributions from their wages at each time of payment of such wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/tdi/Code.pdf", + "quote": "Employees excluded from a private plan shall be covered under the State plan and the employer shall be liable for the deduction and payment of workers' contributions and employer's contributions, as required by N.J.S.A. 43:21-7.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/employer/index.shtml", + "quote": "Employers must participate in these State public insurance programs and deduct payroll taxes for employees working in NJ, or employers may choose to provide employees coverage through a private insurance plan that meets NJ requirements.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/employer/index.shtml", + "quote": "Employees: 0.19% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $325.09). ... Employers: No contribution. Employees: 0.23% on the first $171,100 in covered wages (max $393.53).", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/tdi/", + "quote": "If your employer is covered for Temporary Disability Insurance, they are required to set up payroll contributions for you.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/worker/fli/", + "quote": "For 2026, workers contribute 0.23% on the first $171,100 (wage cap) in covered wages earned during this calendar year. The maximum worker contribution for 2026 is $393.53.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/forms_pdfs/ea/Employer%20Informational%20Packet%20.pdf", + "quote": "Employers have the right to deduct worker contributions from wages paid, but the deduction must be made from the current or next succeeding payroll and noted on the payroll records.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "the employer may during the continuance of the approved private plan collect the required contributions thereto by deduction from the wages paid to covered individuals under such plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://nj.gov/labor/myleavebenefits/assets/pdfs/TDB%20Law%20July%202020.pdf", + "quote": "(d) no greater amount is required to be paid by employees toward the cost of benefits than that prescribed by law as the amount of worker contribution to the State disability benefits fund for covered individuals under the State plan", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "quote": "Worker U.I. D.I. W.F./S.W.F. F.L.I 0.003825 0.0019 0.000425 0.0023 January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026 ... 2026 Taxable Wage Base (TDI , FLI \u2013 workers only): $171,100", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251105152047/https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "quote": "Worker U.I. D.I. W.F./S.W.F. F.L.I 0.003825 0.0019 0.000425 0.0023 January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250926224746/https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/employer-services/rate-info/", + "quote": "2026 rates will be available later this year. ... 2026 Taxable Wage Base (TDI , FLI \u2013 workers only): $171,100", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/assets/PDFs/Legal%20Notices/Notices%20of%20Proposal/57%20N.J.R.%201913_a_.pdf", + "quote": "The new taxable wage base would be $ 44,800 for contributions pursuant to the Unemployment Compensation Law and $ 171,100 for contributions to the State Disability Benefits Fund, including the Family Temporary Disability Leave Account.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/lwdhome/press/2025/20251229_newbenefitrates2026.shtml", + "quote": "The benefit rates and taxable wage base for 2026 reflect the $1,598.66 average weekly wage for 2024", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.nj.gov/labor/ea/help/employer_handbook/income_security.shtml", + "quote": "(3) Workers' contribution must not exceed those required under the State Plan.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "rate_or_amount_issues": [ + "None material. I recomputed the scenario_008 amounts and they match the engine exactly. TDI: 0.0019 x min(26,800, 171,100) = $50.92, and the engine returned 50.920002. FLI: 0.0023 x 26,800 = $61.64, and the engine returned 61.640003. nj_employee_state_payroll_tax and employee_state_payroll_tax both returned 112.560005 (policyengine-us 2.15.17, run this session). The frozen payroll_tax reference of $2,162.76 equals 7.65% FICA on $26,800 ($2,050.20) plus $112.56.", + "The 2026 maximums check out: 0.0019 x 171,100 = $325.09 and 0.0023 x 171,100 = $393.53. The wage base follows the statutory formula: 107 x $1,598.66 (the 2024 statewide AWW, per the 2025-12-29 NJDOL press release) = $171,056.62, rounded up to $171,100.", + "Better dating than the researcher had: the official NJDOL rate-info page listed 2026 worker DI 0.0019 and FLI 0.0023 in a Wayback capture of 2025-11-05 (also in 2025-11-10 and 2026-01-01). The 2025-09-26 capture still said '2026 rates will be available later this year'. That capture already showed the $171,100 worker wage base. Both rates and the wage base were therefore public on an official page well before 2026-07-03.", + "Minor page-cite inaccuracies only. The researcher cited 43:21-7(b)(4) as 'p.~39'; in the Dec 2024 NJDOL compilation it is on printed p.38 (PDF p.47). The engine's taxable_wage_base parameter anchors UI_statute.pdf#page=46, one page early.", + "The engine's TDI/FLI parameters are 0 from 0000-01-01, so it computes zero for pre-2026 years. This does not affect tax year 2026." + ], + "citation_problems": [ + "Every researcher quote I checked against the downloaded PDFs and pages matches verbatim. Their ellipses do not change the meaning. One cosmetic difference: the TDB compilation prints 'section 43 :21-7(d)(1)' with a space, which the researcher rendered as '43:21-7(d)(1)'.", + "I read N.J.A.C. 12:16-9.1 on Cornell LII, which is not the official NJ OAL publication. I could not fetch an official NJ host of the current 12:16 text: NJDOL's NJAC.pdf compilations are 2003 scans with no text layer.", + "The N.J.A.C. 12:18-2.1(b) text comes from NJDOL's July 2011 compilation (Code.pdf), whose chapter expiration date was 2013-09-18. The rule may have been readopted or renumbered since.", + "The NJ Legislature servers (pub.njleg.state.nj.us and pub.njleg.gov) refused connections. So I could not check 43:21-7 against the official statute database for amendments after the Dec 2024 NJDOL compilation. I also could not read P.L.2025, c.279, signed in Jan 2026, which adds TDI/FLI job protection from 2026-07-17. Current NJDOL 2026 pages still say employers 'must ... deduct', which is consistent with no change.", + "I verified the business.nj.gov quote only through the WebFetch summarizer, not raw page text.", + "The researcher's agency-guidance quote attributed to the employer page adds bracketed labels ([TDI], [FLI]) that are not on the page. The underlying text matches." + ], + "reasoning": "I tried to refute the classification from the administration side and could not.\n\nSTATUTE (official NJDOL compilations, downloaded and text-extracted this session)\n- 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(i): each worker of a covered employer 'shall ... make contributions' for TDI.\n- 43:21-7(d)(1)(G)(ii): each worker 'shall contribute' for FLI. FLI coverage includes governmental UI employers.\n- 43:21-7(d)(1)(E): each employer 'shall, notwithstanding any provision of law ... to the contrary, withhold in trust' those contributions.\n- 43:21-7(e)(1): the employer's own TDI contribution 'shall not be deducted' from wages.\n\nADMINISTRATIVE RULES\n- N.J.A.C. 12:16-9.1(a) (read via LII): 'Every employer shall withhold workers' contributions from their wages at each time of payment of such wages.' 12:16-9.3 requires the remittance to include contributions 'payable by the employer on behalf of its workers'.\n- N.J.A.C. 12:18-2.1(b)-(c) and 2.21(a) (NJDOL 2011 compilation): the employer 'shall be liable for the deduction' of workers' contributions whenever workers are on the State plan.\n\nAGENCY GUIDANCE FOR 2026\n- The current NJDOL employer page says employers 'must participate ... and deduct payroll taxes'. The only alternative it offers is a private plan.\n- The worker TDI and FLI pages say a covered employer is 'required to set up payroll contributions for you'.\n- The one 'may'-style phrasing is in the 2012 (rev. 2019) Employer Informational Packet: employers 'have the right to deduct'. In context that sentence is about timing: deduct in the current or next payroll or lose the ability. It does not grant an option to absorb the share.\n\nCAN THE EMPLOYER CHOOSE TO PAY THE EMPLOYEE SHARE?\n- Under the State plan, no statute, rule or page grants that election.\n- An employer that fails to deduct by the next payroll becomes 'alone' liable, and the amount is collected as an employer contribution. That is a de facto consequence of non-compliance with a 'shall withhold' duty, not an authorized pass-through.\n\nIS THE EMPLOYEE LIABLE IF THE AMOUNT IS NOT DEDUCTED?\n- Generally no. The statute puts sole liability on the employer.\n- The narrow exception is 43:21-7(d)(4). When wages are paid by a different employing unit, the employer is liable 'in the first instance'. It may then recover from that unit or, absent one, from the individual in a civil action within three months.\n- So in practice an employee whose employer never withheld pays $0. This matches the researcher's caveat and does not change the classification under the task's definition ('the employer must withhold it').\n\nWHERE THE SHARE IS GENUINELY OPTIONAL\nOnly under an approved private plan. Under 43:21-33 the employer 'may' collect contributions, capped at the State-plan rate by 43:21-32(d). It may therefore charge less or nothing. The researcher already identified this.\n\n2026 RATES, WAGE BASE AND DATES\n- Rates 0.19% (TDI) and 0.23% (FLI) and the $171,100 wage base are confirmed on current NJDOL pages and in 57 N.J.R. 1913(a) (2025-09-02).\n- The NJDOL press release of 2025-12-29 gives a 2024 AWW of $1,598.66; 107 x $1,598.66 = $171,056.62, which rounds up to $171,100.\n- Wayback captures show the official rate-info page listing the 2026 worker rates by 2025-11-05. All of this predates 2026-07-03.\n\nENGINE CHECK\n- I read the NJ variables and parameters this session. Each contribution is the rate times min(max(0, employment_income), $171,100). The NJ files carry no 'maximum permitted employee share' assumption.\n- For scenario_008 the engine gives $50.92 TDI and $61.64 FLI, which equals the law's State-plan required amounts exactly.\n\nRESIDUAL GAPS (none undercut the classification)\n- I could not reach the NJ Legislature site to rule out post-2024 amendments to 43:21-7.\n- The 12:16 rule text came from LII, not the official code.\n- Current 2026 agency pages remain consistent with mandatory withholding." + } + ] + }, + { + "key": "OTHER", + "research": { + "programs": [ + { + "program": "Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave (PFML) premium, employee share", + "state": "WA", + "engine_variables": [ + "wa_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "wa_paid_leave_taxable_wages", + "wa_long_term_care_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.wa.tax.payroll.paid_leave.total_rate", + "gov.states.wa.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employer_share", + "gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "ESD assesses a premium on each individual's wages (RCW 50A.10.030(1)). The employer must collect it through payroll deduction and remit it, acting as the employees' agent ((7)(a)-(b)). But the deduction itself is permissive: the employer 'may deduct ... up to' the employee share ((3)(a)-(b)) and 'may elect to pay all or any portion' of it ((3)(c)). Under WAC 192-510-065(2), not deducting counts as electing to pay. So the employer remits the whole premium, and the employee bears the employee share only if the employer deducts it. Employers with fewer than 50 employees owe no employer portion ((5)(a)), but the employee portion must still be remitted.", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "mixed_or_unclear", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "RCW 50A.10.030(3)(a) (version effective until Jan. 1, 2028)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "quote": "For medical leave premiums, an employer may deduct from the wages of each employee up to the full amount of the premium required.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "RCW 50A.10.030(3)(c)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "quote": "An employer may elect to pay all or any portion of the employee's share of the premium for family leave or medical leave benefits, or both.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "RCW 50A.10.030(7)(a)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "quote": "The employer must collect from the employees the premiums provided under this section through payroll deductions and remit the amounts collected to the department.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "WAC 192-510-065(2)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/WAC/default.aspx?cite=192-510&full=true", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the maximum allowable employee share of the premium from wages paid for a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "RCW 50A.10.030(4) (wage cap)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "quote": "equal to the maximum wages subject to taxation for social security as determined by the social security administration.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://paidleave.wa.gov/employer-roles-responsibilities/", + "quote": "Employers are required to either withhold this amount ... or pay it on their employees\u2019 behalf.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://esd.wa.gov/about-us/news-release/2025/paid-family-medical-leave-premium-rate-increases-113-2026", + "quote": "Employers will pay 28.57% of the total premium and employees will pay 71.43%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://paidleave.wa.gov/updates/", + "quote": "The premium rate will increase to 1.13%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "yes: RCW 50A.10.030(3)(c) says so expressly, and WAC 192-510-065(2) treats a failure to deduct as an election to pay.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "1.13% of gross wages, not including tips", + "max_employee_share": "71.43% of the premium, about 0.8072% of wages; the employer pays 28.57% (employers with 50+ employees only)", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$184,500 (2026 Social Security wage base, per RCW 50A.10.030(4) and the ESD page)", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://esd.wa.gov/about-us/news-release/2025/paid-family-medical-leave-premium-rate-increases-113-2026", + "published": "2025-10-29" + }, + { + "url": "https://paidleave.wa.gov/employer-roles-responsibilities/", + "published": "undated agency page, read 2026-10-05; it states the 2026 rate and the $184,500 cap" + }, + { + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=50A.10.030", + "published": "statute; the cap rule is in force (history: 2026 c 26; 2025 c 304)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the 1.13% rate and the 71.43/28.57 split were announced 2025-10-29" + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "WA_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 484.3, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 484.3, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0113 x 0.7143 x 60,000. Wages have no tips and no pre-tax deductions." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "WA_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 1489.21, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 1489.21, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0113 x 0.7143 x 184,500 (Social Security cap)." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "wa_employee_paid_leave_contribution has label 'Washington employee paid leave contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Washington Paid Family and Medical Leave contribution.' Formula: total_rate x (1 - employer_share) x wa_paid_leave_taxable_wages. Unlike the DE, ME and VT variables, it has no 'assuming the employer withholds the maximum' note. Taxable wages = min(employment_income minus tip_income, Social Security cap). Parameters: total_rate is 0.0092 (2025) and 0.0113 (2026); employer_share is 0.2848 (2025) and 0.2857 (2026). Both cite RCW 50A.10.030, paidleave.wa.gov/updates and the 2025 employer mailer. The aggregate employee_state_payroll_tax is documented as 'Employee-side mandatory state payroll taxes and payroll-funded contributions'.", + "caveats": [ + "The statute pulls both ways. It assesses the premium on the individual and says the employer 'must collect from the employees' ((7)(a)). But the deduction is 'may ... up to', the employer may pay the employee share, and a missed deduction counts as an election to pay. The agency labels the employee premium 'mandatory for all employees' yet says employers may pay it on employees' behalf.", + "For a benchmark that counts only mandatory employee payroll taxes, the employee share is the statutory default but not guaranteed. Whether it is withheld depends on an employer choice the prompt never states.", + "The engine applies the rate by state of residence (defined_for WA). The law follows employment in Washington.", + "Conditional premium waivers (WAC 192-510-080/085) are not modeled." + ], + "confidence": "medium", + "summary": "WA PFML is mixed. The premium is assessed on each worker, and RCW 50A.10.030(7)(a) says the employer must collect it by payroll deduction. But (3) only lets the employer deduct 'up to' the 71.43% employee share and lets it pay that share instead, and WAC 192-510-065(2) treats a missed deduction as an election to pay. The engine's 2026 figure, 1.13% x 71.43% up to $184,500, matches the maximum permitted share exactly." + }, + { + "program": "Washington WA Cares Fund (long-term services and supports) premium", + "state": "WA", + "engine_variables": [ + "wa_employee_long_term_care_contribution", + "wa_long_term_care_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.wa.tax.payroll.long_term_care.employee_rate" + ], + "premium_liability": "Employee-only premium assessed on each individual's wages (RCW 50B.04.080(1)). The employer must collect it through payroll deductions as the employees' agent and remit it ((2)(a)-(b)). WAC 192-910-015(1) says employers must deduct premiums every pay period, and a noncompliant employer must pay past-due premiums ((2)). There is no employer premium.", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_must_withhold", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "RCW 50B.04.080(2)(a)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=50B.04.080", + "quote": "The employer must collect from the employees the premiums provided under this section through payroll deductions and remit the amounts collected to the employment security department.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "RCW 50B.04.080(1)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=50B.04.080", + "quote": "The initial premium rate is .58 percent of the individual's wages. Beginning January 1, 2026, and biennially thereafter, the premium rate shall be set by the pension funding council at a rate no greater than .58 percent.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "WAC 192-910-015(1)", + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/WAC/default.aspx?cite=192-910&full=true", + "quote": "Employers must deduct premiums for each pay period in which the employee receives wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://wacaresfund.wa.gov/employers", + "quote": "The premium is 0.58% of an employee\u2019s gross wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://wacaresfund.wa.gov/employers", + "quote": "you may, however, elect to pay some or all of your employees' share", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/committeeschedules/Home/Agenda/33473", + "quote": "Adoption of Long-Term Services and Supports Trust Program (WA Cares) premium rates.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "The agency page says yes, as a voluntary payment on the employee's behalf. Neither the statute nor WAC 192-910-015 provides an election; both require deduction.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.58% of gross wages, not including tips (statutory ceiling; the Pension Funding Council sets the rate from 2026 at no more than 0.58%)", + "max_employee_share": "100% (employee-only premium): 0.58%", + "wage_base_or_cap": "No cap ('not capped at the taxable maximum for social security', wacaresfund.wa.gov/employers)", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=50B.04.080", + "published": "statute as amended by 2025 c 380 s 10 (enacted 2025)" + }, + { + "url": "https://wacaresfund.wa.gov/employers", + "published": "undated agency page, read 2026-10-05" + }, + { + "url": "https://app.leg.wa.gov/committeeschedules/Home/Agenda/33473", + "published": "2025-10-08 Pension Funding Council agenda listing rate adoption (the adopted outcome was not read)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the 0.58% ceiling is in the statute, and the agency employer page states 0.58%. The Pension Funding Council's Oct. 8, 2025 adoption record itself was not read. The toolkit FAQ restating 0.58% is dated Aug. 18, 2026, after the cutoff, and is not relied on." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "WA_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 348, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 348, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0058 x 60,000, no cap." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "WA_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 1450, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 1450, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0058 x 250,000, no cap." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "wa_employee_long_term_care_contribution has label 'Washington employee long-term care contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Washington WA Cares Fund contribution.' Formula: employee_rate x wa_long_term_care_taxable_wages. Taxable wages = max(0, employment_income - tip_income), documented as 'excluding tips and including federal pre-tax payroll deductions'. Parameter employee_rate is 0.0058 from 2023-07-01, citing RCW 50B.04.080 and wacaresfund.wa.gov/employers.", + "caveats": [ + "Approved individual exemptions are not modeled (WAC 192-910-015(3)(b)), nor is the nonimmigrant-visa carve-out ((3)(c)).", + "The agency's 'may elect to pay' statement is a voluntary employer payment on the employee's behalf. It does not change the statutory duty to collect from employees.", + "The engine applies the premium by state of residence. The law follows employment in Washington." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "WA Cares is a mandatory employee premium. RCW 50B.04.080(2)(a) requires employers to collect it from employees by payroll deduction, WAC 192-910-015(1) says employers must deduct it, and there is no employer share. The engine's 0.58% of uncapped non-tip wages matches the statute and the agency rate." + }, + { + "program": "Oregon Paid Leave Oregon (family and medical leave insurance), employee contribution", + "state": "OR", + "engine_variables": [ + "or_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "or_paid_leave_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.or.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate", + "gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "ORS 657B.150(1)(a)-(b) requires employers and employees to contribute. The employee's 60% share must be deducted from wages by the employer ((2)(b)), which holds the money in trust and remits it ((11)-(12)). Employers with fewer than 25 employees pay no employer share ((4)(a)) but must still collect the employee contributions.", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_must_withhold", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "ORS 657B.150(2)(b)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors657B.html", + "quote": "An employer shall deduct employee contributions from the wages of each employee in an amount that is equal to 60 percent of the total rate determined by the director.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "ORS 657B.150(1)(a)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors657B.html", + "quote": "all employers and employees shall contribute to the Paid Family and Medical Leave Insurance Fund established under ORS 657B.430.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "ORS 657B.150(5)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors657B.html", + "quote": "Notwithstanding subsection (1) of this section, an employer may elect to pay the required employee contributions, in whole or in part, as an employer-offered benefit.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "ORS 657B.150(1)(c)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors657B.html", + "quote": "The total rate may not exceed one percent of employee wages, up to a maximum amount in wages that is equivalent to the Social Security contribution and benefit base limit", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://paidleave.oregon.gov/employers/what-employers-need-to-do.html", + "quote": "You must withhold contributions from your employees\u2019 wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2025-11-18_Tax_Rate_2026_Press_Release.pdf", + "quote": "The Paid Leave Oregon contribution rate for 2026 will remain at 1%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "yes, as an employer-offered benefit (ORS 657B.150(5)). The default rule is a mandatory deduction ((2)(b)).", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "1% of wages", + "max_employee_share": "60% of the total: 0.6% of wages (statutorily fixed, not a ceiling)", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$184,500 (2026 Social Security base, per the OED release)", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.oregon.gov/employ/NewsAndMedia/Documents/2025-11-18_Tax_Rate_2026_Press_Release.pdf", + "published": "2025-11-18" + }, + { + "url": "https://paidleave.oregon.gov/employers/what-employers-need-to-do.html", + "published": "undated agency page, read 2026-10-05" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes (2025-11-18)" + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "OR_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 360, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 360, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.006 x 60,000." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "OR_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 1107, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 1107, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.006 x 184,500 cap." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "or_employee_paid_leave_contribution has label 'Oregon employee paid leave contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Oregon Paid Leave contribution.' Formula: employee_rate x or_paid_leave_taxable_wages. Taxable wages = min(max(0, employment_income), Social Security cap), documented as 'including federal pre-tax payroll deductions'. Parameter employee_rate is 0.006 from 2023-01-01, citing ORS 657B.150 and the Paid Leave Oregon contributions calculator. The employer rate is 0.004, with a 25-employee threshold.", + "caveats": [ + "Employers with an approved equivalent plan (ORS 657B.210(4)) may follow different contribution arrangements. The engine does not model them.", + "Employers may voluntarily pay the employee share ((5)). The engine assumes the statutory default.", + "The engine applies the contribution by state of residence. The law follows where wages are earned (ORS 657B.175)." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Paid Leave Oregon is a mandatory employee contribution. ORS 657B.150(2)(b) says the employer 'shall deduct' 60% of the total rate from wages. The employer may pay it as a benefit, but that is optional. The engine's 0.6% up to $184,500 matches the 2026 rate the OED announced on Nov. 18, 2025." + }, + { + "program": "Oregon statewide transit tax", + "state": "OR", + "engine_variables": [ + "or_employee_statewide_transit_tax", + "or_statewide_transit_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.or.tax.payroll.statewide_transit.employee_rate" + ], + "premium_liability": "Under ORS 320.550(2) the tax is imposed on the employee's wages. The employer must deduct and withhold it ((3)) and report and pay it ((4)), and is treated as a taxpayer ((5)). An employer that fails to withhold is deemed responsible for the tax and may be penalized ((9)). A resident working for an out-of-state employer reports and pays it themselves ((10)).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_must_withhold", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "ORS 320.550(2)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors320.html", + "quote": "A tax is imposed at the rate of one-tenth of one percent of the wages of an employee who is:", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "ORS 320.550(3)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors320.html", + "quote": "Every employer at the time of the payment of wages shall deduct and withhold from the total amount of the wages paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "ORS 320.550(9)(a)", + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors320.html", + "quote": "An employer that fails to deduct and withhold the tax required under this section: (a) Is deemed responsible for the payment of the tax obligation", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.oregon.gov/dor/programs/businesses/pages/statewide-transit-tax.aspx", + "quote": "Please continue to withhold at the rate of one-tenth of 1 percent or .001.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.oregon.gov/dor/programs/businesses/pages/statewide-transit-tax.aspx", + "quote": "Measure 120 did not pass in the May 19, 2026 primary election.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "no: neither the statute nor the agency page provides for it. The tax is imposed on the employee's wages and withholding is required.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.1% of wages (ORS 316.162 definition)", + "max_employee_share": "100% (tax on the employee): 0.1%", + "wage_base_or_cap": "No cap", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/bills_laws/ors/ors320.html", + "published": "ORS 320.550 (2017 c.750; 2018 c.93), 2025 edition. An editor's note says Enrolled HB 3991 (2025 special session) amends 320.550 subject to referendum." + }, + { + "url": "https://www.oregon.gov/dor/programs/businesses/pages/statewide-transit-tax.aspx", + "published": "undated DOR page, updated after the May 19, 2026 election; read 2026-10-05" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the 0.1% rate has been in ORS 320.550 since 2018. The HB 3991 change was referred to voters as Measure 120, which failed on 2026-05-19, before the cutoff. DOR tells employers to continue at 0.1%." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "OR_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 60, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 60, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.001 x 60,000. No pre-tax deductions in the scenario." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "OR_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 250, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 250, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.001 x 250,000, no cap." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "or_employee_statewide_transit_tax has label 'Oregon employee statewide transit tax' and documentation 'Employee-side Oregon statewide transit tax withholding.' Formula: employee_rate x or_statewide_transit_taxable_wages. Taxable wages = irs_employment_income, documented as 'following the income tax withholding wage base'. irs_employment_income = max(0, employment_income - pre_tax_contributions). Parameter employee_rate is 0.001 from 2018-07-01, citing ORS 320.550 and the DOR Statewide Transit Tax page.", + "caveats": [ + "I did not read HB 3991's text or its proposed rate. The 0.1% rate for 2026 rests on the DOR page (Measure 120 failed) and the codified ORS 320.550.", + "ORS 316.162 excludes some kinds of pay from 'wages'. The engine uses federal wages net of pre-tax contributions.", + "The tax also applies to nonresidents for work in Oregon. The engine models Oregon residents only." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "The Oregon statewide transit tax is a mandatory employee tax. ORS 320.550 imposes 0.1% on the employee's wages and says every employer 'shall deduct and withhold' it. The engine's 0.1% uncapped matches the 2026 law, since the HB 3991 increase was referred as Measure 120 and failed on May 19, 2026." + }, + { + "program": "Rhode Island Temporary Disability Insurance (TDI/TCI) employee contribution", + "state": "RI", + "engine_variables": [ + "ri_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution", + "ri_temporary_disability_insurance_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.ri.tax.payroll.temporary_disability_insurance.employee_rate", + "gov.states.ri.tax.payroll.temporary_disability_insurance.taxable_wage_base" + ], + "premium_liability": "Under R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-1(b), each employee owes the contribution (fund cost rate x wages up to the taxable wage base). Each employer must withhold it in trust and transmit it (\u00a7 28-40-3). If the employer fails to deduct it, the employer alone becomes liable and it is treated as an employer contribution (\u00a7 28-40-4). There is no employer TDI contribution.", + "employee_share_rule": "employee_must_contribute", + "classification": "mandatory_employee_withholding", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-1(b) (version effective Jan. 1, 2026)", + "url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-1_28-40-1.htm", + "quote": "Each employee shall contribute ... an amount equal to the fund cost rate times the wages paid by the employer to the employee up to the taxable wage base", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-1(a) (effective Jan. 1, 2026; P.L. 2025, ch. 235 and ch. 237)", + "url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-1_28-40-1.htm", + "quote": "The taxable wage base under this chapter for each calendar year shall be equal to the greater of one hundred thousand dollars ($100,000) or the annual earnings needed by an individual to qualify for the maximum weekly benefit amount", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-3", + "url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-3.htm", + "quote": "Each employer shall withhold in trust contributions from the wages of his or her employees at the time those wages are earned or paid", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-4", + "url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-4.htm", + "quote": "If any employer fails to deduct the contributions of any of the employer\u2019s employees at the time their wages are paid ... the employer alone shall subsequently be liable for those contributions", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://dlt.ri.gov/sites/g/files/xkgbur571/files/2026-06/7.1.26%20UI%20%26%20TDI%20Quick%20Reference.pdf", + "quote": "1.1% of first $100,000 earned", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://dlt.ri.gov/sites/g/files/xkgbur571/files/2026-06/7.1.26%20UI%20%26%20TDI%20Quick%20Reference.pdf", + "quote": "None (Employee Tax)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://dlt.ri.gov/press-releases/2026-tax-rates-unemployment-insurance-and-temporary-disability-insurance", + "quote": "NOT READ: HTTP 403 (Cloudflare) on both WebFetch and curl; the engine cites this release.", + "fetched_and_read": false + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "No election exists in the statute. \u00a7 28-40-4 makes the employer alone liable if it fails to deduct, framed as a failure rather than a permitted choice.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "1.1% (employee-only)", + "max_employee_share": "100%: 1.1% of wages", + "wage_base_or_cap": "$100,000 (statutory floor effective 2026-01-01)", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://dlt.ri.gov/sites/g/files/xkgbur571/files/2026-06/7.1.26%20UI%20%26%20TDI%20Quick%20Reference.pdf", + "published": "2026-06-15 (PDF creation date; document headed 'Effective July 1, 2026')" + }, + { + "url": "https://webserver.rilegislature.gov/Statutes/TITLE28/28-40/28-40-1_28-40-1.htm", + "published": "P.L. 2025, ch. 235 and ch. 237 (enacted 2025, effective 2026-01-01) set the $100,000 wage-base floor" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the $100,000 wage base was enacted in 2025, and the DLT quick reference with 1.1% was created 2026-06-15. The DLT press release the engine cites (late 2025) could not be read (403)." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "RI_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 660, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 660, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.011 x 60,000." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "RI_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 1100, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 1100, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.011 x 100,000 wage base." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "ri_employee_temporary_disability_insurance_contribution has label 'Rhode Island employee temporary disability insurance contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Rhode Island TDI contribution, which also funds TCI.' Formula: employee_rate x ri_temporary_disability_insurance_taxable_wages. Taxable wages = min(irs_employment_income, taxable_wage_base), documented as 'following the income tax wage base'. Parameters: employee_rate is 0.011 from 2026-01-01 and 0 before; taxable_wage_base is 100,000 from 2026-01-01 and 0 before. Both cite R.I. Gen. Laws \u00a7 28-40-1 and the DLT 2026 rates press release.", + "caveats": [ + "Statutory exemptions are not modeled: spiritual-healing dependents (\u00a7 28-40-2), minors aged 14-15 (\u00a7 28-40-2.1), and certain persons with disabilities (\u00a7 28-40-2.2).", + "The engine's parameters are 0 before 2026. That is outside the 2026 benchmark year and not assessed here.", + "The engine uses wages net of pre-tax contributions (irs_employment_income). I did not verify the RI TDI wage definition." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Rhode Island TDI is a mandatory employee contribution. \u00a7 28-40-1(b) says each employee 'shall contribute' and \u00a7 28-40-3 says each employer 'shall withhold'. The engine's 1.1% of the first $100,000 matches the 2026 statutory wage base and the DLT quick reference (June 15, 2026)." + }, + { + "program": "Delaware Paid Leave (family and medical leave insurance) contributions, employee share", + "state": "DE", + "engine_variables": [ + "de_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "de_paid_leave_contribution_rate", + "taxable_earnings_for_social_security", + "employer_headcount", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_share", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.medical_rate", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.family_caregiver_rate", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.parental_rate", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.small_employer_threshold", + "gov.states.de.tax.payroll.paid_leave.full_coverage_threshold" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer is liable. Under 19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(b) the employer remits contributions for each employee, and under \u00a7 3705(g) it is liable for the contribution when wages are paid and must remit the total. If it fails to deduct, it remains liable for the full amount. The employee share is only what the employer chooses to deduct, capped at 50% of each component (\u00a7 3705(d)-(f)).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(d) (same wording in (e) and (f))", + "url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "quote": "From the wages of an employee for whom a contribution is required under paragraph (b)(1) of this section, an employer shall deduct not greater than 50% of the contribution required for the employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(d)", + "url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "quote": "However, an employer may elect to pay all or any portion of the employee\u2019s share of the contribution listed in paragraph (b)(1) of this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(g)", + "url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "quote": "The employer is liable for the contribution at the time that wages are paid and shall remit the total contribution required under subsection (b) of this section to the Fund.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(b)(1)a. (also (b)(2)a. 0.08% and (b)(3)a. 0.32%)", + "url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "quote": "For 2025 and 2026, the contribution rate for medical leave benefits as a percentage of wages is 0.4%.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://labor.delaware.gov/delaware-paid-leave/", + "quote": "Employers can require employees to contribute up to half the cost.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "yes: \u00a7 3705(d)-(f) let the employer pay all or any portion, and \u00a7 3705(g) keeps the employer liable for any amount not deducted.", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.8% of wages for employers with 25+ employees (medical 0.40% + family caregiving 0.08% + parental 0.32%). Employers with 10-24 employees owe the parental component only (0.32%). Under 10 employees: not covered.", + "max_employee_share": "50% of each component: 0.40% of wages (25+ employees) or 0.16% (10-24 employees)", + "wage_base_or_cap": "Wages are FICA OASDI remuneration (\u00a7 3701(24)), so effectively the $184,500 Social Security base", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://delcode.delaware.gov/title19/c037/index.html", + "published": "Statute: rates fixed 'For 2025 and 2026' in \u00a7 3705(b) (83 Del. Laws c. 301, 2022, as amended)" + }, + { + "url": "https://labor.delaware.gov/delaware-paid-leave/", + "published": "undated agency page, read 2026-10-05" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the 2026 rates are fixed in the statute" + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "DE_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 240, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 240, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.008 x 0.5 x 60,000. The engine's employer_headcount defaults to 100, which selects full coverage. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "DE_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 738, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 738, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.008 x 0.5 x 184,500. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "de_employee_paid_leave_contribution has label 'Delaware employee paid leave contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Delaware paid leave contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.' Formula: de_paid_leave_contribution_rate x employee_share x taxable_earnings_for_social_security. de_paid_leave_contribution_rate selects 0 if headcount < 10, the parental rate if < 25, else the sum of the three rates. Default headcount is 100. Parameters: employee_share is 0.5 from 2025, described as 'Default employee share of Delaware paid leave contributions'. Rates from 2025 are medical 0.004, family caregiver 0.0008 and parental 0.0032, all citing 19 Del. C. \u00a7\u00a7 3701/3705. de_employer_paid_leave_contribution is documented as 'assuming the employer contributes only the minimum required share.'", + "caveats": [ + "The prompt never gives employer size, but the law's rate depends on it (0%, 0.32% or 0.8% total). The engine silently assumes 100 employees.", + "Employers with an approved private plan (\u00a7 3705(i), \u00a7 3716) need not remit, and the engine does not model this.", + "The engine counts this permissive deduction in employee_state_payroll_tax, which is documented as 'mandatory'. That mismatch is the same pattern as Minnesota." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Delaware Paid Leave is an optional employer pass-through. Under 19 Del. C. \u00a7 3705(g) the employer is liable for and remits the whole contribution. It may deduct no more than 50% from wages and may pay the employee's share instead (\u00a7 3705(d)-(f)). The engine counts the 50% maximum (0.4% of OASDI wages, assuming 25+ employees), which equals the permitted maximum, but the legally required employee amount is $0." + }, + { + "program": "Maine Paid Family and Medical Leave premium, employee share", + "state": "ME", + "engine_variables": [ + "me_employee_paid_leave_contribution", + "me_paid_leave_taxable_wages", + "gov.states.me.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employee_rate", + "gov.states.me.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employer_rate", + "gov.states.me.tax.payroll.paid_leave.employer_headcount_threshold", + "gov.irs.payroll.social_security.cap" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer remits premiums for each employee (26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F(2)): 100% of the 1% premium with 15+ employees, 50% with fewer (\u00a7 850-F(5)). Either way it 'may deduct up to 50%' of the premium from wages. Rule 12-702 ch. 1 \u00a7 X(L) treats a failure to deduct as an election to pay. A non-paying employer faces assessments (\u00a7 850-F(9)).", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F(5)(A)", + "url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/legis/statutes/26/title26sec850-F.html", + "quote": "An employer with 15 or more employees may deduct up to 50% of the premium required for an employee by subsection 3 from that employee's wages and shall remit 100% of the combined premium contribution", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F(3)(A)", + "url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/legis/statutes/26/title26sec850-F.html", + "quote": "Beginning January 1, 2025, the premium amount may not be more than a combined rate of 1.0% of wages.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F(6)", + "url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/legis/statutes/26/title26sec850-F.html", + "quote": "Premiums are required up to the contribution and benefit base limit established annually by the federal Social Security Administration", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "12-702 C.M.R. ch. 1, \u00a7 X(L) (Maine Department of Labor PFML rule, effective Jan. 1, 2025)", + "url": "https://www1.maine.gov/sos/sites/maine.gov.sos/files/content/assets/702c001.pdf", + "quote": "If an employer fails to deduct the required employee share of the premium from wages paid during a pay period, the employer is considered to have elected to pay that portion of the employee share.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://www.maine.gov/paidleave/docs/2024/EmployersGuidetoMainePFMLContributions.pdf", + "quote": "may deduct up to fifty percent (50%) of the premium (.5% of wages)", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://www.maine.gov/paidleave/docs/2026/employers/faq/employerFAQenglish.pdf", + "quote": "No more than 0.5 percent can come from the employee.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "yes: the deduction is 'may deduct up to 50%' (\u00a7 850-F(5)), and the rule deems a non-deduction an election to pay (\u00a7 X(L)). The rule also requires one deduction choice for all employees (\u00a7 X(I)).", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "1.0% of wages for employers with 15+ employees; 0.5% remitted by employers with fewer than 15", + "max_employee_share": "0.5% of wages (50% of the 1% premium), at any employer size", + "wage_base_or_cap": "Social Security contribution and benefit base: $184,500 in 2026", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://legislature.maine.gov/legis/statutes/26/title26sec850-F.html", + "published": "PL 2023, c. 412 (1.0% ceiling and 50% deduction rule), amended by PL 2025, c. 277" + }, + { + "url": "https://www.maine.gov/paidleave/docs/2024/EmployersGuidetoMainePFMLContributions.pdf", + "published": "2025-01-13 (PDF creation date)" + }, + { + "url": "https://www1.maine.gov/sos/sites/maine.gov.sos/files/content/assets/702c001.pdf", + "published": "rule effective 2025-01-01 (PDF dated 2024-12-02)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes: the statute and the Jan. 2025 employer guide state 1% of wages, with the employee share up to 0.5%. The department sets the rate itself only from 2028 under \u00a7 850-F(3)(B). The 2026 FAQ restating '2025-2027' rates was created 2026-09-04 and is not relied on for the cutoff." + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "ME_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 300, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 300, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.005 x 60,000. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "ME_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 922.5, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 922.5, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.005 x 184,500 cap. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "me_employee_paid_leave_contribution has label 'Maine employee paid leave contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Maine paid leave contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.' Formula: employee_rate x me_paid_leave_taxable_wages. Taxable wages = min(max(0, employment_income), Social Security cap). Parameter employee_rate is 0.005 from 2025, citing 26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F and the Employers Guide (page 11). The employer rate is 0.005, with a 15-employee threshold.", + "caveats": [ + "Employers with an approved private plan (\u00a7 850-F(8)) do not remit. The engine does not model this.", + "Small employers (<15) remit only 0.5% and may deduct all of it from wages. The employee maximum is still 0.5%, so the engine's figure is the cap at any size.", + "The engine counts this permissive deduction in employee_state_payroll_tax, which is documented as 'mandatory'.", + "The Jan. 2025 guide says the department sets the rate 'Beginning in 2027'. The current statute \u00a7 850-F(3)(B) says 2028. Neither affects 2026." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "Maine PFML is an optional employer pass-through. The employer remits the premium, and 26 M.R.S. \u00a7 850-F(5) only lets it 'deduct up to 50%' from wages. Under the rule, a missed deduction is an election to pay. The engine's 0.5% up to the $184,500 Social Security base equals the maximum permitted employee share, not a mandatory amount." + }, + { + "program": "Vermont Child Care Contribution, employee share", + "state": "VT", + "engine_variables": [ + "vt_employee_child_care_contribution", + "vt_child_care_contribution_wages", + "gov.states.vt.tax.payroll.child_care.employee_rate", + "gov.states.vt.tax.payroll.child_care.employer_rate" + ], + "premium_liability": "The employer is liable. Under 32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553(a)(1) each employer pays the 0.44% contribution on covered wages and remits it. Under \u00a7 10553(c)(2) employers are responsible for the full amount of any unpaid contribution. The employer may withhold up to one quarter (0.11% of wages) from the employee.", + "employee_share_rule": "employer_may_deduct_up_to", + "classification": "optional_employer_pass_through", + "operative_text": [ + { + "citation": "32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553(a)(1)", + "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "quote": "Each employer shall pay the Child Care Contribution on all covered wages paid to each of the employer\u2019s employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553(a)(1)", + "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "quote": "An employer may deduct and withhold from an employee\u2019s covered wages an amount equal to not more than one quarter of the contribution required pursuant to subsection (b) of this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553(b)", + "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "quote": "The contribution rate shall be 0.44 percent of each employee\u2019s covered wages", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "citation": "32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553(c)(2)", + "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "quote": "Employers shall be responsible for the full amount of any unpaid contributions due pursuant to subdivision (a)(1) of this section.", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "agency_guidance": [ + { + "url": "https://tax.vermont.gov/sites/tax/files/documents/GB-1326.pdf", + "quote": "Employees are not required to file or pay the CCC", + "fetched_and_read": true + }, + { + "url": "https://tax.vermont.gov/sites/tax/files/documents/GB-1326.pdf", + "quote": "choose not to withhold any amount from employees", + "fetched_and_read": true + } + ], + "can_employer_elect_to_pay_employee_share": "yes: the employer is the payer, and withholding up to 0.11% is optional (\u00a7 10553(a)(1); GB-1326 'Employer Election to Withhold from Employees').", + "rate_2026": { + "total_rate": "0.44% of covered wages (IRC \u00a7 3401 wages subject to Vermont withholding)", + "max_employee_share": "one quarter: 0.11% of wages", + "wage_base_or_cap": "No cap", + "sources": [ + { + "url": "https://legislature.vermont.gov/statutes/fullchapter/32/246", + "published": "2023 Act 76, \u00a7 24, effective 2024-07-01" + }, + { + "url": "https://tax.vermont.gov/sites/tax/files/documents/GB-1326.pdf", + "published": "2024-10-02 (PDF creation date)" + } + ], + "published_before_2026_07_03": "yes (statutory rate since 2024-07-01)" + }, + "engine_amount_checks": [ + { + "scenario_id": "VT_single_age40_wages60000_2026", + "engine_amount": 66, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 66, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0011 x 60,000. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "VT_single_age40_wages250000_2026", + "engine_amount": 275, + "law_amount_at_max_employee_share": 275, + "matches_within_1_dollar": true, + "note": "0.0011 x 250,000, no cap. The law amount at the minimum employee share is $0." + } + ], + "engine_documentation": "vt_employee_child_care_contribution has label 'Vermont employee child care contribution' and documentation 'Employee-side Vermont Child Care Contribution, assuming the employer withholds the maximum permitted employee share.' Formula: employee_rate x vt_child_care_contribution_wages. Wages = irs_employment_income, documented as 'following the income tax withholding wage base'. Parameter employee_rate is 0.0011 and employer_rate is 0.0033, both from 2024-07-01, citing 32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553 and GB-1326 (page 3). vt_employer_child_care_contribution is documented as 'assuming the employer contributes only the minimum required employer share.'", + "caveats": [ + "The statute names the employer as payer and treats withholding as optional, and the Tax Department says employees are not required to pay. Counting 0.11% as a mandatory employee tax therefore contradicts the law.", + "Only wages subject to Vermont income tax withholding are covered (work physically performed in Vermont). The engine keys on Vermont residence.", + "The engine counts this permissive deduction in employee_state_payroll_tax, which is documented as 'mandatory'." + ], + "confidence": "high", + "summary": "The Vermont Child Care Contribution is an optional employer pass-through. Under 32 V.S.A. \u00a7 10553 the employer pays the 0.44% and is responsible for any unpaid amount, and may withhold up to a quarter (0.11%) from the employee. GB-1326 says employees are not required to pay. The engine's 0.11% of uncapped wages equals the maximum permitted withholding, but the legally required employee amount is $0." + } + ] + }, + "verdicts": [] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7806e4e6 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact.json @@ -0,0 +1,1054 @@ +{ + "published_reproduced": true, + "salt_commit": "8af912a062dd7ae1373de4c043ae2727d3406930", + "salt": { + "changed_outputs": [ + "scenario_022/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_081/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_114/federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "scored_outputs": { + "published": 1928, + "proposed": 1925 + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.41983119224074983, + "max": 0.6110860229821071, + "mean": 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00000000..e34d0696 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_exclude_plus_salt_models.csv @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +model,exact_published,exact_proposed,exact_delta,within1pct_published,within1pct_proposed,within1pct_delta,within5pct_published,within5pct_proposed,within5pct_delta,within10pct_published,within10pct_proposed,within10pct_delta,score_published,score_proposed,score_delta,outputGroupScore_published,outputGroupScore_proposed,outputGroupScore_delta,exact_rank_published,exact_rank_proposed,exact_rank_change,within1pct_rank_published,within1pct_rank_proposed,within1pct_rank_change,score_rank_published,score_rank_proposed,score_rank_change,n_published,n_proposed,payroll_exact_published,payroll_exact_proposed,payroll_exact_delta 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00000000..969f435e --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_regenerate_plus_salt_programs.csv @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +variable,exact_published,exact_proposed,exact_delta,score_published,score_proposed,score_delta,n_published,n_proposed,n_delta +payroll_tax,78.5024154589372,79.53447518664908,1.0320597277118821,94.95457150909301,95.01545619845788,0.060884689364868905,4554,4554,0 diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_regenerate_programs.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_regenerate_programs.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..969f435e --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_regenerate_programs.csv @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +variable,exact_published,exact_proposed,exact_delta,score_published,score_proposed,score_delta,n_published,n_proposed,n_delta 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00000000..02ad94b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/leaderboard_impact_salt_programs.csv @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +variable,exact_published,exact_proposed,exact_delta,score_published,score_proposed,score_delta,n_published,n_proposed,n_delta +federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,61.6118769883351,63.9515685195377,2.339691531202604,82.70114441901764,82.91135864963636,0.21021423061871758,3772,3634,-138 diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..49857e8d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers.csv @@ -0,0 +1,553 @@ +scenario_id,state,model,prediction,scored,exact_published,within1pct_published,exact_no_optional,within1pct_no_optional,exact_federal_only,within1pct_federal_only +scenario_005,CA,claude-fable-5,33296.55,True,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0 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b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers_summary.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..15929429 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/model_answers_summary.json @@ -0,0 +1,280 @@ +{ + "outputs": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_005", + "state": "CA", + "scored": true, + "state_programs": "ca_employee_state_disability_insurance_contribution=5590.00", + "optional_amount": 0, + "reference_published": 36044.0, + "reference_no_optional": 36044.0, + "reference_federal_only": 30454.0, + "models": 46, + "exact_published": 4, + "exact_no_optional": 4, + "exact_federal_only": 2, + "within1pct_published": 4, + "within1pct_no_optional": 4, + "within1pct_federal_only": 3, + "modal_answers": { + "36044.00": 4, + "35614.00": 4, + "30454.00": 2, + "35128.91": 2 + } + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_008", + "state": "NJ", + "scored": false, + "state_programs": 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"head", + "spouse", + "child1" + ] + } + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..770c5eb8 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1985 @@ +scenario_id,state,variable,reference,final,final_matches_reference,scoped,delta,moved_any,moved_over_tolerance,excluded,excluded_reason +scenario_000,TX,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,2906.45361328125,2906.45361328125,True,2906.45361328125,0.0,False,False,False, +scenario_000,TX,federal_refundable_credits,0.0,0.0,True,0.0,0.0,False,False,False, +scenario_000,TX,free_school_meals_eligible,0.0,0.0,True,0.0,0.0,False,False,False, +scenario_000,TX,local_income_tax,0.0,0.0,True,0.0,0.0,False,False,False, +scenario_000,TX,payroll_tax,0.0,0.0,True,0.0,0.0,False,False,False, 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b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope_households.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..28d558b4 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/verification/sweep_payroll_scope_households.json @@ -0,0 +1,506 @@ +{ + "adapter_sha256": "e139fe6f4dded9723721def83b03facc466bff19930532024d6262166846dc54", + "households": { + "scenario_000": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_001": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "VA" + }, + "scenario_002": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WA" + }, + "scenario_003": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_004": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NY" + }, + "scenario_005": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 5590.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 5590.0, + "state": "CA" + }, + "scenario_007": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "ID" + }, + "scenario_008": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 112.56000518798828, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 112.56000518798828, + "state": "NJ" + }, + "scenario_009": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_012": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MS" + }, + "scenario_013": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AZ" + }, + "scenario_014": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WV" + }, + "scenario_015": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "IN" + }, + "scenario_016": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_018": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AZ" + }, + "scenario_020": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_021": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MO" + }, + "scenario_022": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 684.2550048828125, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 684.2550048828125, + "state": "CA" + }, + "scenario_023": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 226.75440979003906, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 226.75440979003906, + "state": "CA" + }, + "scenario_025": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "OH" + }, + "scenario_026": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_027": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "CT" + }, + "scenario_028": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 42.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 42.0, + "state": "PA" + }, + "scenario_029": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "OK" + }, + "scenario_030": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_031": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "CA" + }, + "scenario_032": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 127.5999984741211, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MN" + }, + "scenario_033": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + 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}, + "scenario_054": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_055": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_056": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NJ" + }, + "scenario_057": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "LA" + }, + "scenario_059": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_060": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_062": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_064": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WI" + }, + "scenario_066": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "VA" + }, + "scenario_067": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "IN" + }, + "scenario_068": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MD" + }, + "scenario_070": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "IL" + }, + "scenario_071": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NY" + }, + "scenario_072": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MI" + }, + "scenario_073": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MI" + }, + "scenario_074": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "LA" + }, + "scenario_075": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_076": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "ID" + }, + "scenario_077": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "LA" + }, + "scenario_078": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MD" + }, + "scenario_079": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AZ" + }, + "scenario_080": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "PA" + }, + "scenario_081": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 805.0092163085938, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MA" + }, + "scenario_082": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 443.1100158691406, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NY" + }, + "scenario_083": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_084": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_085": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "PA" + }, + "scenario_086": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "GA" + }, + "scenario_088": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_089": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_090": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "KS" + }, + "scenario_091": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WI" + }, + "scenario_092": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AL" + }, + "scenario_093": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MO" + }, + "scenario_095": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NJ" + }, + "scenario_098": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "IL" + }, + "scenario_099": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 2145.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 2145.0, + "state": "CA" + }, + "scenario_100": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MT" + }, + "scenario_101": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_102": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NC" + }, + "scenario_104": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NY" + }, + "scenario_107": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "OH" + }, + "scenario_108": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WI" + }, + "scenario_109": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_110": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "OH" + }, + "scenario_111": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "WA" + }, + "scenario_112": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "TX" + }, + "scenario_114": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "VA" + }, + "scenario_115": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AL" + }, + "scenario_116": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "FL" + }, + "scenario_117": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "AR" + }, + "scenario_118": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "NY" + }, + "scenario_119": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "VA" + }, + "scenario_120": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 827.9849853515625, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 827.9849853515625, + "state": "CT" + }, + "scenario_121": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "SC" + }, + "scenario_122": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 0.0, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 0.0, + "state": "MN" + }, + "scenario_123": { + "employee_state_payroll_tax_final": 101.5, + "employee_state_payroll_tax_scoped": 101.5, + "state": "PA" + } + }, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17" +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d1bb62c6 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,123 @@ +# State income tax withheld in the federal SALT deduction, October 5, 2026 + +This directory audits how PolicyBench's US references fill the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax (SALT) deduction. It proposes three exclusions and changes no reference. Adopting them changes published scores, so they wait for Max's ruling. + +## The mechanism + +These files hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, the version that built the published references, as installed in the reference venv. + +- `salt_deduction` takes the smaller of the SALT cap and `salt` (`variables/gov/irs/income/taxable_income/deductions/itemizing/salt_deduction.py`). +- `salt` adds `state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax` and `real_estate_taxes` (`parameters/gov/irs/deductions/itemized/salt_and_real_estate/sources.yaml`). +- `state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax` is the larger of income tax and sales tax. Income tax is `state_withheld_income_tax` plus `local_income_tax`; sales tax is `state_sales_tax` plus `local_sales_tax` (`state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax.py`). +- `state_withheld_income_tax` has no formula of its own. It adds the per-state `*_withheld_income_tax` variables (`parameters/gov/states/household/state_withheld_income_tax.yaml`). Its label reads "state income tax before refundable credits", but each component is a formula on the person's whole federal AGI, not the household's state liability. For example, `ma_withheld_income_tax` is 5% of AGI above the $4,400 single personal exemption, and `ca_withheld_income_tax` and `va_withheld_income_tax` apply the state rate schedule to AGI that includes Social Security both states exempt. + +No PolicyBench prompt states state income tax withheld or paid, and the household data never set it. The prompt says to "treat any unlisted numeric input as 0". So the reference rests on an engine estimate of an input the prompt never lists. Under 26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3) and (b)(5), a household deducts the state income tax it paid during the year, or general sales tax instead. The stated facts support two readings, and each gives a reference different from the frozen one: + +| Reading | State income tax in SALT | +|---|---| +| Reference | the engine's withholding estimate | +| `liability` | the household pays its 2026 state income tax during 2026: the engine's own state income tax before refundable credits | +| `net` | as `liability`, net of state refundable credits | +| `zero` | none paid ("unlisted numeric input = 0"), so SALT takes general sales tax | + +Two engine details shape the `liability` reading: + +- Maryland county tax reaches SALT only through `md_withheld_income_tax` (upstream #8888). The reference system's state output leaves it out, so the reading adds it back. Two households carry it, at the Allegany rate the engine assigns an unlisted county: scenario_068 ($834.27) and scenario_078 ($4,358.51). +- NYC tax is in the engine's state aggregate but reaches SALT through `local_income_tax`, so the reading removes it. No household has NYC or other local income tax. + +A state's tax can depend on federal tax or on federal SALT, so the input is iterated to a fixed point. Every household converged on the first pass: changing the input never changed a state liability in this set. + +## Method + +1. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py` rebuilds every household with `Scenario.to_pe_household` and computes every output on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final` (`../2026-09-28/fixes/`), the system that built the references. Its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references. It then reruns every household under each reading, feeding the reading in as the tax-unit input `state_withheld_income_tax`. + - That input feeds SALT and the state formulas that read SALT or withholding: CO, MO, SC, NM, HI, ID, UT, VA and AZ. It also feeds a few benefit-program deductions that no output reads. + - Montana's federal-tax deduction reads `mt_withheld_income_tax` directly. The only Montana household, scenario_100, has no withholding estimate and no Montana liability. + - Outputs: `verification/sweep_salt_withholding.csv` (every output under every reading), `verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json` (each household's SALT components, itemization, cap and fixed-point trace) and `verification/sweep_salt_withholding.log`. +2. **Side readings.** `scripts/variants.py` computes every other value the records quote, on the same system and households, and writes `verification/variants.json` and `variants.log`: + - the liability reading with the corrected state liability for households whose state output is an engine-defect exclusion; + - mandatory employee state payroll contributions added to SALT; + - no local sales tax; + - no modeled Medicare Part B premium; + - Maryland's 24 county rates; + - scenario_120 under r02's IRA fix. +3. **Propose.** `scripts/propose_exclusions.py` writes `proposed_exclusions.json`. It holds one `reference_depends_on_unlisted_input` record, in the format of the frozen run's `reference_exclusions.json`, for every scored output the `liability` reading moves by more than the $1 exact-match tolerance. Outputs already excluded for another reason are listed with the note text a release should add to their records. +4. **Impact.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` copies the frozen run twice to a scratch directory and never writes the snapshot. It appends the proposed records to one copy and scores both with `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs. The unchanged copy must reproduce the published payload's scoring: modelStats except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, plus programStats, heatmap, globalWeights and failureModes. It does: every compared value is equal. Outputs: `verification/leaderboard_impact_models.csv`, `leaderboard_impact_programs.csv`, `leaderboard_impact.json` and `leaderboard_impact.log`. +5. **Verify.** Five independent reviewers checked the work in a Claude Code workflow on 2026-10-05, each in its own scratch directory: + - **Mechanism.** One traced the code path and recomputed the five withholding estimates and the nine federal values for 022, 081 and 114 by hand, all to the cent. + - **Differential.** One re-implemented the sweep with a different mechanism: per-person state withholding inputs. Its values were bit-identical on all 1,984 outputs. + - **Adversarial.** One tried to refute the exclusions. It could not, and it found the payroll-contribution defect. + - **Impact.** One reproduced the impact byte for byte and recomputed the headline through `policybench.analysis` directly. + - **Completeness.** One found the Part B premium and the county dependence below. + + Their structured reports are in `verification/independent_reviews.json`; their scratch paths are not kept. Every number they raised that the records quote is recomputed by `variants.py` above. + +## What moves + +Nine of the 100 households itemize. Under every reading, five outputs move by more than $1, all of them federal income tax before refundable credits. No other output moves by even a cent. + +| Output | Reference | `liability` | `zero` | Withholding estimate | Engine liability | Status | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| scenario_022 (CA) | 11,113.57 | 11,895.23 | 12,192.29 | 6,058.85 | 2,505.87 | scored; proposed | +| scenario_081 (MA) | 26,932.27 | 26,991.31 | 28,763.81 | 8,484.41 | 8,238.41 | scored; proposed | +| scenario_114 (VA) | 10,729.61 | 11,137.31 | 11,758.09 | 5,367.30 | 3,514.15 | scored; proposed | +| scenario_078 (MD) | 24,164.46 | 24,799.16 | 27,290.70 | 15,791.66 | 11,295.39 | excluded (state and local tax refund) | +| scenario_120 (CT) | 40,416.67* | 40,438.95 | 43,619.93 | 12,010.05 | 11,917.18 | excluded (r02 IRA engine defect) | + +\* scenario_120's published reference is 40,021.82, the value its 2026-09-22 record kept. 40,416.67 is its 2.15.17 value. + +`net` gives the same values as `liability`, because no affected household has a state refundable credit. In 078 the $40,400 cap binds under the withholding estimate and not under the liability. 078's liability value also depends on the county, which the prompt does not state: $24,705.95 to $25,068.44 across Maryland's 24 county rates. + +Under the zero reading, SALT takes general sales tax. That includes the engine's local sales tax component, 20% of the state table amount, which estimates an unlisted locality. Without it, 022's zero-reading value is $12,234.66 and 114's is $11,783.48. The local component moves no reference on its own. + +No model is within $1 of the frozen reference on any of the three proposed outputs (0 of 138 rows). Model answers do land on the other readings: + +- In scenario_081 the engine's Massachusetts liability, $8,238.41, is itself an engine-defect exclusion (r22, corrected $8,232.90). With the corrected liability the output is $26,992.64. Four models answer within $1 of that: GPT-5.6 Sol ($26,992.59), Claude Opus 5.5 ($26,992.66), and GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol ($26,993.29). +- In scenario_022, Grok 4.7 and Inkling answer $12,192, the zero reading. + +## Related engine issues found on the way + +- **State payroll contributions are left out of SALT.** policyengine-us 2.15.17 computes mandatory employee state payroll contributions (`employee_state_payroll_tax`) for the payroll tax output, but SALT never reads them. Rev. Rul. 2025-4 (January 15, 2025) treats state paid family and medical leave contributions as deductible state income taxes, and Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977), did the same for California SDI. Adding them moves the same federal outputs and no others: + - 022 (CA SDI $684.26): $10,963.04 under the estimate, $11,744.69 under the liability; + - 081 (MA paid leave $805.01): $26,739.07 and $26,798.11; + - 120 (CT paid leave $827.98): $40,217.95 and $40,240.24. + + The proposed and existing records note this. It needs an upstream fix. +- **Medicare Part B premium.** The engine adds a modeled Part B premium ($2,434.80 for 2026) to medical expenses for every Medicare-eligible person, 30 households in all. It assumes enrollment, which the prompt never states, though the prompt's rules say not to infer unlisted expenses or health coverage. With the premium at 0, two outputs move, both in scenario_114: + - federal: $10,729.61 → $11,265.27 (proposed here for the withholding reason); + - Virginia state: $3,514.15 → $3,654.15. This one is scored and is **not** in this proposal. + + Under the literal reading (no withholding, no local sales tax, no Part B) the household takes the standard deduction: federal $11,969.80, Virginia $4,127.67. This is a separate unlisted input. Its audit is a follow-up task, so that the same release can carry its record if confirmed. + +## Leaderboard impact + +The three exclusions leave 1,925 scored outputs per model. + +- **Headline exact rate.** Every model's household-impact-weighted exact rate rises by 0.42 to 0.61 points. Every model missed all three outputs, and each carries 0.20 to 0.21 of its household's weight on an equal-household headline. GPT-6 Sol moves from 95.00% to 95.62%. +- **Always-zero baseline.** It moves from 69.98% to 70.40%, so GPT-6 Sol's lead over it goes from 25.02 to 25.22 points. +- **Headline rank.** One rank changes: Claude Sonnet 5.5 (92.65%) passes GPT-6 Luna (92.61%) for fourth. They were 0.016 points apart. +- **Within-1% rank.** Three adjacent pairs swap: GPT-6.1 Sol and Grok 4.7 (#9/#10), GLM-5.3 and Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite (#26/#27), and MiniMax M3 and Claude Opus 4.8 (#39/#40). +- **Bounded-score rank.** Three adjacent pairs swap: GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 Terra (13/14), Claude Opus 5 and DeepSeek V4 Flash 0731 (23/24), and MiniMax M3 and Claude Sonnet 5 (42/43). +- **Federal income tax.** Exact match across models rises from 61.6% to 64.0%. + +`verification/leaderboard_impact.json` has the full figures. + +## What a release adopting the records must also do + +The reviewers checked these against the code and tests. They are not done here. + +1. **Adjudications.** Add three developer adjudications (`excluded_from_scoring: true`, `adjudicated_failure_source: prompt_ambiguity`) to `annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json`. Without them `scripts/freeze_snapshot.py`'s `reference_exclusions_block` stops the freeze. +2. **Annotation rows.** Relabel the 135 `llm_error` annotation rows on the three outputs to `prompt_ambiguity`, as for every other exclusion (`tests/test_paper_results.py` checks this). Reword the case and row annotations that call the withholding estimate the household's state income tax: + - 081: "$8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax"; + - 114: "$5,367.59 state income tax"; + - 022: "about $6,059 of estimated CA income tax". +3. **Superseded regeneration.** Supersede the 2026-09-22 `c_ca_hold_2025` regeneration of scenario_022 federal, which `tests/test_reference_audit.py` expects to stay scored. Extend the record-date rule there for exclusions dated after the wave. +4. **Pinned counts.** Update the counts the tests and documents pin: + - exclusions 56 → 59, unlisted-input 28 → 31, households 39 → 40; + - scored outputs per model 1,928 → 1,925; + - 2.15.17-era records 4 → 7, adjudications 69 → 72; + - audited rows 7,860 → 7,722, exact-match misses 7,856 → 7,718. +5. **Paper.** Revise the paper: + - Line ~1041 says Maryland's withholding allowance "reaches federal tax through the state and local tax deduction". Under these records its federal effect falls only on excluded outputs. + - Add the withholding reading to the unlisted-input list and the sweep narrative. + - Re-render the abstract and the tables. +6. **Existing notes.** Add the `already_excluded` note text to scenario_078's record, whose note says the SALT cap "binds at every 2026 county rate", and to scenario_120's record. diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..0493ec95 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/proposed_exclusions.json @@ -0,0 +1,74 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "status": "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to the ruling's date.", + "basis": "policybench/reference_exclusions.py: an output is excluded for every model when its reference depends on an engine input the prompt never listed and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way.", + "exclusions": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_022", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of California income tax withheld: California's single rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $17,624.75 of taxable Social Security, which California exempts) less California's single standard deduction, at California's 2025 amounts (ca_withheld_income_tax, under the c_ca_hold_2025 convention), $6,058.85. The same engine computes the household's California income tax before refundable credits as $2,505.87. Read as the household paying its 2026 California income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 11113.5703125, + "alternative_value": 11895.2275390625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,887.85 in the reference and $11,334.87 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $1,155.60, and the output is $12,192.29; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $192.60 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $12,234.66. The alternative uses the engine's California liability ($2,505.87), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($1,968.81, recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4) the output is $12,013.38. The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's California SDI contributions ($684.26) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)). With them the output is $10,963.04 under the withholding estimate and $11,744.69 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_081", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Massachusetts income tax withheld: 5% of the person's whole federal AGI above the $4,400 single personal exemption (ma_withheld_income_tax), $8,484.41. The same engine computes the household's Massachusetts income tax before refundable credits as $8,238.41. Read as the household paying its 2026 Massachusetts income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 26932.2734375, + "alternative_value": 26991.3125, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $14,127.41 in the reference and $13,881.41 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $853.00, and the output is $28,763.81. The alternative uses the engine's Massachusetts liability ($8,238.41), which this household's state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected liability ($8,232.90) the output is $26,992.64. The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 leaves the household's Massachusetts paid family and medical leave contributions ($805.01) out of SALT, though they are deductible state income taxes (Rev. Rul. 2025-4). With them the output is $26,739.07 under the withholding estimate and $26,798.11 under the liability." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_114", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula estimate of Virginia income tax withheld: Virginia's rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI (including $19,828.80 of taxable Social Security, which Virginia exempts) less Virginia's single standard deduction (va_withheld_income_tax), $5,367.30. The same engine computes the household's Virginia income tax before refundable credits as $3,514.15. Read as the household paying its 2026 Virginia income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value).", + "frozen_value": 10729.6123046875, + "alternative_value": 11137.306640625, + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "2026-10-05", + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household data never set", + "note": "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs). SALT is $9,431.59 in the reference and $7,578.44 under the alternative; the household itemizes under both, and the $40,400 cap binds under neither. Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, $692.40, and the output is $11,758.09; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of $115.40 (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an unlisted locality), and without it the output is $11,783.48. The reference's medical deduction also includes a modeled Medicare Part B premium of $2,434.80, which the prompt does not list. Without it the output is $11,265.27 under the withholding estimate and $11,642.16 under the liability, and with no withholding, local sales tax or Part B premium it is $11,969.80 (the household then takes the standard deduction)." + } + ], + "already_excluded": [ + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_078", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "existing_reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "existing_basis": "whether the prior-year deduction of the refunded state and local tax reduced federal tax (prior-year itemization, the income-versus-sales-tax election, SALT-cap headroom)", + "reference": 24164.45703125, + "engine_value_on_2_15_17": 24164.45703125, + "liability_reading_value": 24799.1640625, + "zero_reading_value": 27290.697265625, + "note_to_append": "The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Maryland withholding estimate ($15,791.66); with the engine's own liability ($11,295.39) the 2.15.17 value is $24,799.16, and with no state income tax paid it is $27,290.70. The $40,400 cap that binds in the reference does not bind under the liability, so the liability value depends on the county, which the prompt does not state: $24,705.95 to $25,068.44 across Maryland's 24 county rates (the engine's default, Allegany, gives $24,799.16)." + }, + { + "scenario_id": "scenario_120", + "variable": "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "existing_reason_code": "reference_engine_defect", + "existing_basis": "r02_ira_219g", + "reference": 40021.81640625, + "engine_value_on_2_15_17": 40416.66796875, + "liability_reading_value": 40438.953125, + "zero_reading_value": 43619.93359375, + "note_to_append": "The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted input): the reference's SALT uses the Connecticut withholding estimate ($12,010.05); with the engine's own liability ($11,917.18) the 2.15.17 value is $40,438.95, and with no state income tax paid it is $43,619.93. With r02's IRA fix on 2.15.17 the value is $40,423.18 under the withholding estimate, $40,445.46 under the liability and $43,629.21 with no state income tax paid. policyengine-us 2.15.17 also leaves the household's Connecticut paid leave contributions ($827.98) out of SALT (Rev. Rul. 2025-4); with them the 2.15.17 value is $40,217.95." + } + ], + "readings_moving_no_further_scored_output": [ + "net", + "zero" + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5827b0a9 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,283 @@ +"""Score the frozen run with and without the proposed exclusions, through the analyze CLI. + +Copies the frozen run (predictions, references, scenarios, exclusions) to two scratch +directories and never writes the snapshot. In one copy the exclusion record is +unchanged; in the other the proposed records (proposed_exclusions.json) are appended. +Each copy is scored with ``python -m policybench.cli analyze``, the command the freeze +runs, and the dashboard payloads are compared. + +The unchanged copy must reproduce the published payload's scoring: every modelStats +field except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, and programStats, +heatmap, globalWeights and failureModes exactly. The script stops if it does not. + + PYTHONPATH= /bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +PROPOSED = HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json" +OUT_DIR = HERE / "verification" +RUN_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +METRICS = ( + "exact", + "within1pct", + "within5pct", + "within10pct", + "score", + "outputGroupScore", +) +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") +RANKED = ("exact", "within1pct", "score") + + +def always_zero(run_dir: Path) -> dict[str, float]: + """The always-zero baseline, as paper_results._always_zero_weighted_rates scores it.""" + import numpy as np + + from policybench.analysis import weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model + from policybench.reference_exclusions import scored_reference_for + from policybench.spec import get_output_ids, output_group_id + + truth, _ = scored_reference_for(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv") + headline = set(get_output_ids("us", "headline")) + truth = truth[truth["variable"].map(output_group_id).isin(headline)] + truth = truth.reset_index(drop=True) + truth["scenario_id"] = truth["scenario_id"].astype(str) + scenarios = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "scenarios.csv") + market = dict( + zip( + scenarios["scenario_id"].astype(str), + pd.to_numeric(scenarios["total_income"], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0), + ) + ) + predictions = truth[["scenario_id", "variable"]].copy() + predictions["model"] = "Always zero" + predictions["prediction"] = np.zeros(len(truth)) + scored = weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model(truth, predictions, market, country="us") + return { + "exact": float(scored["weighted_exact"].mean()) * 100, + "within1pct": float(scored["weighted_within_1pct"].mean()) * 100, + } + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def stage(target: Path, extra: list[dict] | None) -> Path: + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, target / name) + if extra: + record = json.loads((target / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend(extra) + (target / "reference_exclusions.json").write_text( + json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + out = run_dir / "analysis" + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(out), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + payload = json.loads(dashboard.read_text()) + return payload["countries"]["us"] + + +def check_reproduces_published(base: dict) -> None: + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS: + if published[key] != base[key]: + raise SystemExit(f"unchanged copy does not reproduce published {key}") + a = {m["model"]: m for m in published["modelStats"]} + b = {m["model"]: m for m in base["modelStats"]} + if set(a) != set(b): + raise SystemExit("model sets differ") + for model, row in a.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != b[model].get(field): + raise SystemExit(f"{model}.{field}: {value} != {b[model].get(field)}") + + +def ranks(frame: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> pd.Series: + return frame[metric].rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +def compare(base: dict, proposed: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + b = pd.DataFrame(proposed["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in METRICS: + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_proposed"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + for metric in RANKED: + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] = ranks(a, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"] = ranks(b, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_change"] = ( + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] - rows[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"] + ) + rows["n_published"] = a["n"] + rows["n_proposed"] = b["n"] + return rows.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + + +def program_rows(base: dict, proposed: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + b = pd.DataFrame(proposed["programStats"]).set_index("variable") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in ("exact", "score", "n"): + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_proposed"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + return rows[(rows.filter(like="_delta").abs() > 1e-9).any(axis=1)] + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + proposals = json.loads(PROPOSED.read_text())["exclusions"] + + base = analyze(stage(scratch / "base", None)) + check_reproduces_published(base) + proposed = analyze(stage(scratch / "proposed", proposals)) + + models = compare(base, proposed) + zero = { + "published": always_zero(scratch / "base"), + "proposed": always_zero(scratch / "proposed"), + } + leader = models.sort_values("exact_rank_proposed").index[0] + programs = program_rows(base, proposed) + OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + models.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv") + programs.to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_programs.csv") + summary = { + "proposed_exclusions": [ + f"{p['scenario_id']}/{p['variable']}" for p in proposals + ], + "published_reproduced": True, + "scored_outputs": { + "published": int(base["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + "proposed": int(proposed["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["exact_delta"].max()), + "mean": float(models["exact_delta"].mean()), + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": float(models["score_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["score_delta"].max()), + }, + **{ + f"{metric}_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_published"]), + "proposed": int(row[f"{metric}_rank_proposed"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row[f"{metric}_rank_change"] != 0 + } + for metric in RANKED + }, + "always_zero_baseline": zero, + "leader_margin_over_always_zero_exact": { + "model": leader, + "published": float( + models.loc[leader, "exact_published"] - zero["published"]["exact"] + ), + "proposed": float( + models.loc[leader, "exact_proposed"] - zero["proposed"]["exact"] + ), + }, + "top5_exact_published": models.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + .head(5) + .index.tolist(), + "top5_exact_proposed": models.sort_values("exact_rank_proposed") + .head(5) + .index.tolist(), + } + (OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text( + json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 250, "display.max_rows", 100): + print( + models[ + [ + "exact_published", + "exact_proposed", + "exact_delta", + "exact_rank_published", + "exact_rank_proposed", + "score_published", + "score_proposed", + "score_delta", + "score_rank_published", + "score_rank_proposed", + ] + ].round(4) + ) + print(programs.round(4)) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/propose_exclusions.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/propose_exclusions.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..2c820d0d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/propose_exclusions.py @@ -0,0 +1,352 @@ +"""Draft unlisted-input exclusions for outputs that rest on the state withholding estimate. + +Reads the sweep (sweep_salt_withholding.py) and the side readings (variants.py) and +writes ``proposed_exclusions.json``: one ``reference_depends_on_unlisted_input`` +record, in the format of the frozen run's ``reference_exclusions.json``, for every +scored output that the ``liability`` reading moves by more than the $1 exact-match +tolerance (a binary output, if it flips). Outputs already excluded for another reason +cannot take a second record (the loader refuses duplicate keys); they are listed under +``already_excluded`` with the note text a release should add to their record. + +The records are a proposal. They change published scores, so they wait for Max's +ruling; ``decided_on`` is the date the proposal was drafted and a release sets it to +the ruling's date. + + python reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/propose_exclusions.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_salt_withholding.csv" +HOUSEHOLDS = HERE / "verification/sweep_salt_withholding_households.json" +VARIANTS = HERE / "verification/variants.json" +OUT = HERE / "proposed_exclusions.json" +DRAFTED_ON = "2026-10-05" +ENGINE = "policyengine-us 2.15.17" +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +UNLISTED_INPUT = ( + "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026, which the federal state and local " + "tax deduction takes as its state income tax part; policyengine-us fills it with " + "state_withheld_income_tax, a formula estimate on federal AGI that the household " + "data never set" +) +# How policyengine-us 2.15.17 estimates each state's withholding (the per-state +# *_withheld_income_tax formula), read from the installed package. +PROXY = { + "CA": ( + "California's single rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI{ss} " + "less California's single standard deduction, at California's 2025 amounts " + "(ca_withheld_income_tax, under the c_ca_hold_2025 convention)" + ), + "CT": ( + "Connecticut's single rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI " + "less the maximum single personal exemption (ct_withheld_income_tax)" + ), + "MA": ( + "5% of the person's whole federal AGI above the $4,400 single personal " + "exemption (ma_withheld_income_tax)" + ), + "MD": ( + "Maryland's single rate schedule plus the default county's rate, applied to " + "the person's whole federal AGI less the $3,400 single withholding allowance " + "(md_withheld_income_tax, under the c_md_2026 convention)" + ), + "VA": ( + "Virginia's rate schedule applied to the person's whole federal AGI{ss} less " + "Virginia's single standard deduction (va_withheld_income_tax)" + ), +} +STATE_NAME = { + "CA": "California", + "CT": "Connecticut", + "MA": "Massachusetts", + "MD": "Maryland", + "VA": "Virginia", +} +# States that exempt Social Security the proxy's federal AGI includes. +EXEMPTS_SOCIAL_SECURITY = {"CA", "VA"} +PAYROLL_AUTHORITY = { + "CA": "Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 (1977)", + "MA": "Rev. Rul. 2025-4", + "CT": "Rev. Rul. 2025-4", +} +PAYROLL_LABEL = { + "CA": "California SDI", + "MA": "Massachusetts paid family and medical leave", + "CT": "Connecticut paid leave", +} + + +def money(value: float) -> str: + return f"${value:,.2f}" + + +def reading_text(state: str, base: dict, liability: float) -> str: + name = STATE_NAME[state] + social_security = "" + if ( + state in EXEMPTS_SOCIAL_SECURITY + and base["tax_unit_taxable_social_security"] > 0 + ): + social_security = ( + f" (including {money(base['tax_unit_taxable_social_security'])} of taxable " + f"Social Security, which {name} exempts)" + ) + county = ( + " plus county income tax" + if base["md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] + else "" + ) + return ( + "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. The " + "reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state and local tax " + "deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with policyengine-us's formula " + f"estimate of {name} income tax withheld: {PROXY[state].format(ss=social_security)}, " + f"{money(base['state_withheld_income_tax'])}. The same " + f"engine computes the household's {name} income tax{county} before refundable " + f"credits as {money(liability)}. Read as the household paying its 2026 {name} " + "income tax during the year, the deduction takes that liability and the " + "output is the alternative value. The prompt's rule that unlisted numeric " + "inputs are 0 gives a third reading, no state income tax paid, under which " + "SALT takes the general sales tax (the note gives that value)." + ) + + +def note_text(sid: str, row: pd.Series, household: dict, variant: dict) -> str: + base = household["baseline"] + liability = household["liability"]["diagnostics"] + zero = household["zero"]["diagnostics"] + itemizes = base["tax_unit_itemizes"] and liability["tax_unit_itemizes"] + capped = [ + label + for label, d in (("the reference", base), ("the alternative", liability)) + if d["salt"] > d["salt_cap"] + ] + cap = f"${base['salt_cap']:,.0f}" + local_sales = zero["local_sales_tax"] + pieces = [ + "Found 2026-10-05 by sweeping every reference with the state income tax in " + "SALT read three ways (reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/" + "sweep_salt_withholding.py, on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final; its " + "baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references, and an independent " + "re-implementation agreed on all 1,984 outputs).", + f"SALT is {money(base['salt_deduction'])} in the reference and " + f"{money(liability['salt_deduction'])} under the alternative; the household " + + ("itemizes under both" if itemizes else "itemizes under only one reading") + + ( + f", and the {cap} cap binds in {' and '.join(capped)}." + if capped + else f", and the {cap} cap binds under neither." + ), + "Under the zero reading SALT takes the general sales tax, " + f"{money(zero['state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax'])}, and the output is " + f"{money(row['zero'])}" + + ( + f"; that sales tax includes the engine's local component of " + f"{money(local_sales)} (20% of the state table amount, an estimate for an " + "unlisted locality), and without it the output is " + f"{money(variant['no_local_sales']['zero'][FEDERAL])}." + if local_sales > 0 + else "." + ), + ] + corrected = variant.get("corrected_liability") + if corrected: + pieces.append( + f"The alternative uses the engine's {STATE_NAME[household['state']]} " + f"liability ({money(variant['liability'])}), which this household's " + "state output carries as an engine-defect exclusion; with the corrected " + f"liability ({money(corrected['withheld'])}" + + (", recorded on policyengine-us 1.755.4" if sid == "scenario_022" else "") + + f") the output is {money(corrected['outputs'][FEDERAL])}." + ) + payroll = variant["employee_state_payroll_tax"] + if payroll > 0: + pieces.append( + "The output also moves under an engine defect: policyengine-us 2.15.17 " + f"leaves the household's {PAYROLL_LABEL.get(household['state'], 'mandatory state payroll')} " + f"contributions ({money(payroll)}) out of SALT, though they are deductible " + f"state income taxes ({PAYROLL_AUTHORITY.get(household['state'], 'Rev. Rul. 2025-4')}). " + "With them the output is " + f"{money(variant['payroll_in_salt']['estimate'][FEDERAL])} under the " + "withholding estimate and " + f"{money(variant['payroll_in_salt']['liability'][FEDERAL])} under the " + "liability." + ) + no_b = variant["no_part_b"] + if abs(no_b["reference"][FEDERAL] - row["baseline"]) > 1.0: + text = ( + "The reference's medical deduction also includes a modeled Medicare Part B " + f"premium of {money(variant['medicare_part_b_premium'])}, which the prompt " + "does not list. Without it the output is " + f"{money(no_b['reference'][FEDERAL])} under the withholding estimate" + ) + if "liability" in no_b: + text += f" and {money(no_b['liability'][FEDERAL])} under the liability" + if "literal" in no_b: + text += ( + ", and with no withholding, local sales tax or Part B premium it is " + f"{money(no_b['literal'][FEDERAL])}" + + ( + " (the household then takes the standard deduction)" + if not no_b["literal_itemizes"] + else "" + ) + ) + pieces.append(text + ".") + return " ".join(pieces) + + +def already_note(row: pd.Series, household: dict, variant: dict) -> str: + base = household["baseline"] + liability = household["liability"]["diagnostics"] + name = STATE_NAME[household["state"]] + text = ( + "The output also moves under the state income tax withheld reading (unlisted " + f"input): the reference's SALT uses the {name} withholding estimate " + f"({money(base['state_withheld_income_tax'])}); with the engine's own " + f"liability ({money(variant['liability'])}) the 2.15.17 value is " + f"{money(row['liability'])}, and with no state income tax paid it is " + f"{money(row['zero'])}" + ) + if base["salt"] > base["salt_cap"] and liability["salt"] <= base["salt_cap"]: + text += ( + f". The ${base['salt_cap']:,.0f} cap that binds in the reference does not " + "bind under the liability" + ) + counties = variant.get("md_counties") + if counties: + feds = [c[FEDERAL] for c in counties.values()] + text += ( + ", so the liability value depends on the county, which the prompt does not " + f"state: {money(min(feds))} to {money(max(feds))} across Maryland's 24 " + "county rates (the engine's default, Allegany, gives " + f"{money(counties['ALLEGANY_COUNTY_MD'][FEDERAL])})" + ) + r02 = variant.get("r02_120") + if r02: + text += ( + ". With r02's IRA fix on 2.15.17 the value is " + f"{money(r02['reference'])} under the withholding estimate, " + f"{money(r02['liability'])} under the liability and {money(r02['zero'])} " + "with no state income tax paid" + ) + payroll = variant["employee_state_payroll_tax"] + if payroll > 0: + text += ( + ". policyengine-us 2.15.17 also leaves the household's " + f"{PAYROLL_LABEL.get(household['state'], 'mandatory state payroll')} " + f"contributions ({money(payroll)}) out of SALT " + f"({PAYROLL_AUTHORITY.get(household['state'], 'Rev. Rul. 2025-4')}); with them " + f"the 2.15.17 value is {money(variant['payroll_in_salt']['estimate'][FEDERAL])}" + ) + return text + "." + + +def main() -> None: + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP) + households = { + h["scenario_id"]: h for h in json.loads(HOUSEHOLDS.read_text())["households"] + } + variants = { + v["scenario_id"]: v for v in json.loads(VARIANTS.read_text())["households"] + } + existing = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())["exclusions"] + existing_keys = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in existing} + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv").set_index( + ["scenario_id", "variable"] + )["value"] + + moved = sweep[sweep["liability_moved"]] + proposals, already = [], [] + for _, row in moved.iterrows(): + sid, variable = row["scenario_id"], row["variable"] + key = (sid, variable) + household = households[sid] + variant = variants[sid] + assert abs(variant["liability"] - household["liability"]["withheld"]) < 1e-6 + assert abs(variant["liability_outputs"][variable] - row["liability"]) < 1e-6 + if key in existing_keys: + entry = existing_keys[key] + already.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "variable": variable, + "existing_reason_code": entry["reason_code"], + "existing_basis": entry.get("root_cause") + or entry.get("unlisted_input"), + "reference": float(reference[key]), + "engine_value_on_2_15_17": float(row["baseline"]), + "liability_reading_value": float(row["liability"]), + "zero_reading_value": float(row["zero"]), + "note_to_append": already_note(row, household, variant), + } + ) + continue + assert abs(float(reference[key]) - float(row["baseline"])) <= 1e-3, key + assert household["liability"]["converged"] and household["net"]["converged"] + base = household["baseline"] + proposals.append( + { + "scenario_id": sid, + "variable": variable, + "reason_code": "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input", + "alternative_reading": reading_text( + household["state"], base, variant["liability"] + ), + "frozen_value": float(reference[key]), + "alternative_value": float(row["liability"]), + "engine_version": ENGINE, + "decided_on": DRAFTED_ON, + "decided_by": "developer", + "unlisted_input": UNLISTED_INPUT, + "note": note_text(sid, row, household, variant), + } + ) + + payload = { + "schema_version": 1, + "status": ( + "proposed 2026-10-05; changes published scores, so it waits for Max's " + "ruling (cos decision). decided_on is the draft date; a release sets it to " + "the ruling's date." + ), + "basis": ( + "policybench/reference_exclusions.py: an output is excluded for every " + "model when its reference depends on an engine input the prompt never " + "listed and a careful reader could take the stated facts the other way." + ), + "exclusions": proposals, + "already_excluded": already, + "readings_moving_no_further_scored_output": sorted( + reading + for reading in ("net", "zero") + if set( + map( + tuple, + sweep[sweep[f"{reading}_moved"] & ~sweep["excluded"]][ + ["scenario_id", "variable"] + ].values, + ) + ) + <= {(p["scenario_id"], p["variable"]) for p in proposals} + ), + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2) + "\n") + print(f"{len(proposals)} proposed, {len(already)} already excluded -> {OUT}") + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..065a53b6 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py @@ -0,0 +1,363 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference with the state income tax in SALT read three ways. + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 fills the state income tax part of the federal SALT deduction +(26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3)) with ``state_withheld_income_tax``, which adds per-state +``*_withheld_income_tax`` estimates (parameters/gov/states/household/ +state_withheld_income_tax.yaml). Each estimate is a formula of the person's federal AGI +(for Massachusetts, 5% of AGI above the $4,400 single exemption), not the household's +state liability, and no PolicyBench prompt states state income tax withheld or paid. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions and the Maryland +output-scope adapter), on households built by ``Scenario.to_pe_household``. The script +first recomputes every output under it and checks the result against the published +reference CSV. It then reruns every household under three readings of "state income +tax paid in 2026", each fed in as ``state_withheld_income_tax`` (the tax-unit input that +SALT and the state formulas that read SALT or withholding consume): + +``liability`` + The household pays its 2026 state income tax liability during 2026: the engine's + own state income tax before refundable credits. Maryland county tax is added + (2.15.17 sends it to SALT only through the withholding proxy; the published + output excludes it) and NYC tax is removed (it reaches SALT through + ``local_income_tax``). Because a state's tax can depend on federal tax or on the + federal SALT deduction, the input is iterated to a fixed point; the trace records + how many passes each household needed. +``net`` + As ``liability``, net of state refundable credits and floored at zero. +``zero`` + The prompt's "treat any unlisted numeric input as 0": no state income tax was + withheld or paid in 2026, so SALT takes the larger of local income tax and the + engine's general sales tax (164(b)(5)). + +Run from a policybench checkout with the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv: + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/sweep_salt_withholding.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import copy +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +YEAR = 2026 +PERIOD = str(YEAR) +BINARY_SUFFIXES = ("_eligible",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} +MAX_ITERATIONS = 25 +CONVERGED = 0.005 +READINGS = ("liability", "net", "zero") +DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "adjusted_gross_income", + "tax_unit_taxable_social_security", + "tax_unit_itemizes", + "standard_deduction", + "itemized_taxable_income_deductions", + "real_estate_taxes", + "state_withheld_income_tax", + "local_income_tax", + "state_sales_tax", + "local_sales_tax", + "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax", + "salt", + "salt_cap", + "salt_deduction", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "state_refundable_credits", + "employee_state_payroll_tax", + "income_tax_before_refundable_credits", +) + +_SYSTEM = None +_FIX_DIR = None + + +def _assemble_fixes() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="salt_withholding_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _load_reform(fix_dir: Path): + path = fix_dir / "latest_final.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module.reform + + +def _system(): + global _SYSTEM, _FIX_DIR + if _SYSTEM is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + _FIX_DIR = _assemble_fixes() + _SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=_load_reform(_FIX_DIR)) + return _SYSTEM + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def _tax_unit_value(sim, variable: str) -> float: + try: + return float(sim.calculate(variable, YEAR).sum()) + except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 - diagnostics only; a missing variable is None + return float("nan") + + +def _salt_income_tax(sim, reading: str) -> float: + """The state (and Maryland county) income tax a reading says was paid in 2026.""" + if reading == "zero": + return 0.0 + state = _tax_unit_value(sim, "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + md_county = _tax_unit_value(sim, "md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + nyc = _tax_unit_value(sim, "nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + amount = state + md_county - nyc + if reading == "net": + amount -= _tax_unit_value(sim, "state_refundable_credits") + return max(0.0, amount) + + +def _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) -> dict[str, float]: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + + values = {} + for variable in variables: + pe_variable = _pe_variable_for_output(variable, "us") + values[variable] = float( + _extract_person_value(sim.calculate(pe_variable, YEAR), scenario, variable) + ) + return values + + +def _diagnostics(sim) -> dict[str, float]: + return {name: _tax_unit_value(sim, name) for name in DIAGNOSTICS} + + +def _simulate(situation: dict, withheld: float | None): + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + situation = copy.deepcopy(situation) + if withheld is not None: + situation["tax_units"]["tax_unit"]["state_withheld_income_tax"] = { + PERIOD: withheld + } + return Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(), situation=situation) + + +def sweep_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + """Baseline and the three readings for one household.""" + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = build_situation(scenario) + + base = _simulate(situation, None) + result = { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "baseline": _outputs(base, scenario, variables), + "baseline_diagnostics": _diagnostics(base), + "readings": {}, + } + for reading in READINGS: + trace = [] + if reading == "zero": + withheld = 0.0 + sim = _simulate(situation, withheld) + trace.append({"withheld": withheld, "implied": 0.0}) + converged = True + else: + withheld = _salt_income_tax(base, reading) + converged = False + for _ in range(MAX_ITERATIONS): + sim = _simulate(situation, withheld) + implied = _salt_income_tax(sim, reading) + trace.append({"withheld": withheld, "implied": implied}) + if abs(implied - withheld) < CONVERGED: + converged = True + break + withheld = implied + result["readings"][reading] = { + "withheld": withheld, + "converged": converged, + "iterations": len(trace), + "trace": trace, + "outputs": _outputs(sim, scenario, variables), + "diagnostics": _diagnostics(sim), + } + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--scenarios", nargs="*") + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + programs = meta["programs"] + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in exclusions} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + if args.scenarios: + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(args.scenarios)] + + jobs = [] + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(programs, scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(jobs)} households", flush=True) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(sweep_scenario, jobs)) + results.sort(key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for result in results: + sid = result["scenario_id"] + for variable, base in result["baseline"].items(): + key = (sid, variable) + ref = float(indexed[key]) + entry = excluded.get(key) + binary = variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + row = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": result["state"], + "variable": variable, + "reference": ref, + "baseline": base, + "baseline_matches_reference": ( + round(base) == round(ref) if binary else abs(base - ref) <= 1e-3 + ), + "excluded": entry is not None, + "excluded_reason": entry["reason_code"] if entry else "", + } + for reading in READINGS: + value = result["readings"][reading]["outputs"][variable] + delta = value - base + row[reading] = value + row[f"{reading}_delta"] = delta + row[f"{reading}_moved"] = ( + round(value) != round(base) if binary else abs(delta) > TOLERANCE + ) + rows.append(row) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "sweep_salt_withholding.csv", index=False) + + households = [] + for result in results: + item = { + "scenario_id": result["scenario_id"], + "state": result["state"], + "baseline": result["baseline_diagnostics"], + } + for reading in READINGS: + r = result["readings"][reading] + item[reading] = { + "withheld": r["withheld"], + "converged": r["converged"], + "iterations": r["iterations"], + "trace": r["trace"], + "diagnostics": r["diagnostics"], + } + households.append(item) + (out_dir / "sweep_salt_withholding_households.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + {"policyengine_us": engine, "households": households}, + indent=1, + sort_keys=True, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + scored = table[~table["excluded"]] + mismatched = table[~table["baseline_matches_reference"] & ~table["excluded"]] + print( + f"baseline: {len(table)} outputs, {len(scored)} scored, " + f"{len(mismatched)} scored outputs differ from the published reference" + ) + if not mismatched.empty: + print(mismatched[["scenario_id", "variable", "reference", "baseline"]]) + unconverged = [ + (h["scenario_id"], reading) + for h in households + for reading in READINGS + if not h[reading]["converged"] + ] + print(f"unconverged: {unconverged}") + with pd.option_context("display.width", 220, "display.max_rows", 500): + for reading in READINGS: + moved = table[table[f"{reading}_moved"]] + print( + f"\n{reading}: {len(moved)} outputs move " + f"({int((~moved['excluded']).sum())} scored)" + ) + print( + moved[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "state", + "variable", + "baseline", + reading, + f"{reading}_delta", + "excluded", + ] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/variants.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/variants.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..16904448 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/variants.py @@ -0,0 +1,350 @@ +"""Secondary readings behind the numbers the proposed records' notes cite. + +sweep_salt_withholding.py settles which outputs the state income tax in SALT moves. +This script computes the side values the records and the README quote, on the same +reference system (policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final) and the same households: + +``corrected_liability`` + The liability reading with the state liability an existing engine-defect record + corrects: scenario_081's Massachusetts tax at r22's corrected $8,232.900391 and + scenario_022's California tax at r11's corrected $1,968.80542 (both recorded on + 1.755.4; r11 was not ported to 2.15.17). +``payroll_in_salt`` + Every household, with mandatory employee state payroll contributions + (``employee_state_payroll_tax``: CA SDI, MA/CT paid leave and the rest) added to + the income side of SALT, once on top of the withholding estimate and once on top + of the liability. policyengine-us 2.15.17 computes them for the payroll tax output + and leaves them out of SALT; Rev. Rul. 2025-4 treats state paid-leave + contributions as 164(a)(3) income taxes, and Trujillo v. Commissioner, 68 T.C. 670 + (1977), held the same for CA SDI. +``no_local_sales`` + Every household, with ``local_sales_tax`` at 0 (the engine sets it to 20% of the + state table amount, an estimate of an unlisted locality), on the reference and + under the zero reading. +``no_part_b`` + Every household, with each person's ``medicare_part_b_premium`` at 0. The engine + adds a modeled Part B premium to medical expenses for Medicare-eligible people the + prompt never says are enrolled; scenario_114 also under the liability reading and + the literal reading (no withholding, no local sales tax, no Part B). +``md_counties`` + scenario_068 and scenario_078 under the liability reading at each of Maryland's 24 + county rates (the county is not a benchmark input; 2.15.17 defaults to Allegany). +``r02_120`` + scenario_120 federal on 2.15.17 with r02's IRA fix (latest_alt_r02_ira_219g), under + the reference, liability and zero readings. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python reference_audit/2026-10-05/scripts/variants.py \\ + --out reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/variants.json +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import copy +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent)) +import sweep_salt_withholding as base # noqa: E402 + +MD_COUNTIES = ( + "ALLEGANY_COUNTY_MD", + "ANNE_ARUNDEL_COUNTY_MD", + "BALTIMORE_COUNTY_MD", + "BALTIMORE_CITY_MD", + "CALVERT_COUNTY_MD", + "CAROLINE_COUNTY_MD", + "CARROLL_COUNTY_MD", + "CECIL_COUNTY_MD", + "CHARLES_COUNTY_MD", + "DORCHESTER_COUNTY_MD", + "FREDERICK_COUNTY_MD", + "GARRETT_COUNTY_MD", + "HARFORD_COUNTY_MD", + "HOWARD_COUNTY_MD", + "KENT_COUNTY_MD", + "MONTGOMERY_COUNTY_MD", + "PRINCE_GEORGE_S_COUNTY_MD", + "QUEEN_ANNE_S_COUNTY_MD", + "SOMERSET_COUNTY_MD", + "ST_MARY_S_COUNTY_MD", + "TALBOT_COUNTY_MD", + "WASHINGTON_COUNTY_MD", + "WICOMICO_COUNTY_MD", + "WORCESTER_COUNTY_MD", +) +CORRECTED_LIABILITY = {"scenario_081": 8232.900391, "scenario_022": 1968.80542} +FEDERAL = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +_R02 = None + + +def _r02_system(): + global _R02 + if _R02 is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + base._system() # assembles the fix directory + fix_dir = base._FIX_DIR + for name in ("r02_ira_219g.py", "r02_ira_219g_v2.py"): + shutil.copy2(base.AUDIT_0922 / "fixes" / name, fix_dir / name) + path = fix_dir / "latest_alt_r02_ira_219g.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_alt_r02", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_alt_r02"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + _R02 = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + return _R02 + + +def _sim( + situation, *, withheld=None, tax_unit=None, people=None, household=None, system=None +): + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + situation = copy.deepcopy(situation) + tu = situation["tax_units"]["tax_unit"] + if withheld is not None: + tu["state_withheld_income_tax"] = {base.PERIOD: withheld} + for name, value in (tax_unit or {}).items(): + tu[name] = {base.PERIOD: value} + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for name, value in (people or {}).items(): + person[name] = {base.PERIOD: value} + for name, value in (household or {}).items(): + situation["households"]["household"][name] = {base.PERIOD: value} + return Simulation(tax_benefit_system=system or base._system(), situation=situation) + + +def _liability(sim) -> float: + return base._salt_income_tax(sim, "liability") + + +def _fixed_point(situation, **kwargs): + sim = _sim(situation, **kwargs) + withheld = _liability(sim) + for _ in range(base.MAX_ITERATIONS): + sim = _sim(situation, withheld=withheld, **kwargs) + implied = _liability(sim) + if abs(implied - withheld) < base.CONVERGED: + return sim, withheld + withheld = implied + raise RuntimeError("liability reading did not converge") + + +def household_variants(job) -> dict: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = job + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = base.build_situation(scenario) + sid = scenario.id + + def outputs(sim): + return base._outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + + reference = _sim(situation) + estimate = base._tax_unit_value(reference, "state_withheld_income_tax") + payroll = base._tax_unit_value(reference, "employee_state_payroll_tax") + liability_sim, liability = _fixed_point(situation) + result = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": scenario.state, + "estimate": estimate, + "liability": liability, + "employee_state_payroll_tax": payroll, + "local_sales_tax": base._tax_unit_value(reference, "local_sales_tax"), + "medicare_part_b_premium": float( + reference.calculate("medicare_part_b_premium", base.YEAR).sum() + ), + "reference": outputs(reference), + "liability_outputs": outputs(liability_sim), + "payroll_in_salt": { + "estimate": outputs(_sim(situation, withheld=estimate + payroll)), + "liability": outputs(_sim(situation, withheld=liability + payroll)), + }, + "no_local_sales": { + "reference": outputs(_sim(situation, tax_unit={"local_sales_tax": 0.0})), + "zero": outputs( + _sim(situation, withheld=0.0, tax_unit={"local_sales_tax": 0.0}) + ), + }, + "no_part_b": { + "reference": outputs( + _sim(situation, people={"medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0}) + ), + }, + } + if sid in CORRECTED_LIABILITY: + result["corrected_liability"] = { + "withheld": CORRECTED_LIABILITY[sid], + "outputs": outputs(_sim(situation, withheld=CORRECTED_LIABILITY[sid])), + } + if sid == "scenario_114": + no_b = {"medicare_part_b_premium": 0.0} + sim, withheld = _fixed_point(situation, people=no_b) + result["no_part_b"]["liability"] = {"withheld": withheld, **outputs(sim)} + literal = _sim( + situation, withheld=0.0, tax_unit={"local_sales_tax": 0.0}, people=no_b + ) + result["no_part_b"]["literal"] = outputs(literal) + result["no_part_b"]["literal_itemizes"] = base._tax_unit_value( + literal, "tax_unit_itemizes" + ) + if scenario.state == "MD": + counties = {} + for county in MD_COUNTIES: + sim, withheld = _fixed_point(situation, household={"county": county}) + counties[county] = { + "withheld": withheld, + FEDERAL: outputs(sim)[FEDERAL], + "reference_federal": outputs( + _sim(situation, household={"county": county}) + )[FEDERAL], + } + result["md_counties"] = counties + if sid == "scenario_120": + system = _r02_system() + r02_ref = _sim(situation, system=system) + r02_liability = base._salt_income_tax(r02_ref, "liability") + result["r02_120"] = { + "reference": outputs(r02_ref)[FEDERAL], + "liability": outputs( + _sim(situation, withheld=r02_liability, system=system) + )[FEDERAL], + "zero": outputs(_sim(situation, withheld=0.0, system=system))[FEDERAL], + } + return result + + +def moved(results, key_path) -> list[dict]: + rows = [] + for r in results: + node = r + for key in key_path: + node = node[key] + for variable, value in node.items(): + if not isinstance(value, float): + continue + ref = r["reference"][variable] + binary = variable.endswith(base.BINARY_SUFFIXES) + if (round(value) != round(ref)) if binary else abs(value - ref) > 1.0: + rows.append( + { + "scenario_id": r["scenario_id"], + "variable": variable, + "reference": ref, + "value": value, + "delta": value - ref, + } + ) + return rows + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=8) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + meta = json.loads((base.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(base.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + jobs = [] + for _, row in pd.read_csv(base.RUN / "scenarios.csv").iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = sorted( + pool.map(household_variants, jobs), key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"] + ) + + mismatched = [ + (r["scenario_id"], v) + for r in results + for v, value in r["reference"].items() + if abs(value - float(indexed[(r["scenario_id"], v)])) > 1e-3 + ] + excluded = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) + for e in json.loads((base.RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + } + mismatched = [k for k in mismatched if k not in excluded] + summary = { + "scored_reference_mismatches": mismatched, + "moved": { + "payroll_in_salt_estimate": moved(results, ["payroll_in_salt", "estimate"]), + "payroll_in_salt_liability": moved( + results, ["payroll_in_salt", "liability"] + ), + "no_local_sales_reference": moved(results, ["no_local_sales", "reference"]), + "no_local_sales_zero": moved(results, ["no_local_sales", "zero"]), + "no_part_b_reference": moved(results, ["no_part_b", "reference"]), + }, + "households_with_part_b": sorted( + r["scenario_id"] for r in results if r["medicare_part_b_premium"] > 0 + ), + } + for rows in summary["moved"].values(): + for row in rows: + row["excluded"] = (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) in excluded + Path(args.out).write_text( + json.dumps({"summary": summary, "households": results}, indent=1) + "\n" + ) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1)) + for r in results: + for key in ("corrected_liability", "md_counties", "r02_120"): + if key in r: + value = r[key] + if key == "corrected_liability": + value = { + "withheld": value["withheld"], + FEDERAL: value["outputs"][FEDERAL], + } + if key == "md_counties": + feds = [c[FEDERAL] for c in value.values()] + value = { + "min": min(feds), + "max": max(feds), + "allegany": value["ALLEGANY_COUNTY_MD"][FEDERAL], + "reference_range": [ + min(c["reference_federal"] for c in r[key].values()), + max(c["reference_federal"] for c in r[key].values()), + ], + } + print(r["scenario_id"], key, json.dumps(value)) + if r["scenario_id"] == "scenario_114": + print( + "scenario_114 no_part_b", + json.dumps( + { + k: ( + v + if not isinstance(v, dict) + else {x: v[x] for x in (FEDERAL, STATE) if x in v} + ) + for k, v in r["no_part_b"].items() + } + ), + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/independent_reviews.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/independent_reviews.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a6b07dbc --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/independent_reviews.json @@ -0,0 +1,495 @@ +[ + { + "key": "mechanism", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_corrections", + "summary": "The finding holds. I read the policyengine-us 2.15.17 source, and the federal SALT deduction takes its state income tax part from a formula estimate of withholding computed from federal AGI. It does not use the household's state liability. Working without the engine, I rebuilt the five withholding estimates from the scenario inputs and the 2026 parameters, and each matches the sweep to within 0.1 cent. For 081, 0.05 x (174,088.1176 - 4,400) = 8,484.4059. I also rebuilt federal income tax before refundable credits for 022, 081 and 114 under the reference, liability and zero readings, and all nine values match the engine to the cent. Each change equals the household's marginal rate times the change in SALT; the QBI taxable-income cap, the senior deduction and the itemize-or-not choice never bind. On the iteration: every household and reading converged on the first pass (300 of 300), so the fixed-point loop never actually had to iterate. Among the five states, the only channels by which state tax could depend on SALT are the federal itemization flag, Virginia above its applicable amount, and California's dependent-care credit. None of them applies to these households. I found no error in the numbers. The corrections are caveats: (a) the liability readings for 022 and 081 use engine state liabilities that the frozen run already excludes as engine defects; the proposed notes say so; (b) the variable's label is misleading; (c) one Montana formula reads its own withholding estimate directly, so the sweep's override would not reach it. None of these changes which outputs move.", + "findings": [ + { + "claim": "The reference SALT uses the withholding estimate, not state liability.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Path through the 2.15.17 code: salt_deduction.py:16 takes salt and caps it at salt_cap (lines 22-23). salt.py:11 adds the list in sources.yaml:3-5, which is [state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax, real_estate_taxes]. state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax.py:13-17 returns max(state_withheld_income_tax + local_income_tax, state_sales_tax + local_sales_tax). state_withheld_income_tax.py:10 has no formula: it adds the 44 per-state *_withheld_income_tax variables listed in parameters/gov/states/household/state_withheld_income_tax.yaml:6-54. Each per-state formula reads only adjusted_gross_income_person and parameters: ma_withheld_income_tax.py:13-19, ca:13-17, va:13-17, md:13-47, ct:13-19. In all five baselines, state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax equals state_withheld_income_tax and differs from state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits: CA 6,058.85 vs 2,505.87; MA 8,484.41 vs 8,238.41; VA 5,367.30 vs 3,514.15; MD 15,791.66 vs 6,936.88 + 4,358.51 county; CT 12,010.05 vs 11,917.18." + }, + { + "claim": "salt_cap and the taxable-income limit do not change the result for the five households, except that the cap binds for 078 in the reference.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "salt_cap.py:13-25: cap 40,400 single for 2026, cut by 30% of MAGI above 505,000, with a 10,000 floor (values read from the reference parameter tree). All five AGIs are below 235,000, so the cap is 40,400. salt_deduction.py:17-21 also limits SALT to AGI minus exemptions, which never binds. In 078 the reference SALT of 42,251.66 exceeds the cap and is cut to 40,400. Under the liability reading SALT is 37,755.39, below the cap: 0.24 x 2,644.61 = 634.71, which matches the sweep." + }, + { + "claim": "081 MA: $8,484.41 = 5% x (174,088.12 - 4,400).", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hand AGI = 175,002 + 110.1176 + 56 - 1,080 = 174,088.1176 (engine float32: 174,088.125). part_b.yaml gives 0.05 from 2020 on; exemptions/personal.yaml gives SINGLE 4,400 from 2015 on; no convention touches either. 0.05 x 169,688.1176 = 8,484.4059 (sweep 8,484.4062). Gap to the engine's MA liability: 8,484.41 - 8,238.41 = 246.00 = 5% x 4,920. Reading ma_part_b_taxable_income_deductions.py:45-50, the liability taxes Part B income without netting the $1,080 short-term loss and subtracts $6,000 of deductions (FICA plus rent). I did not read the cap parameters for those two deductions." + }, + { + "claim": "022 CA withholding estimate is $6,058.85 with the c_ca_hold_2025 values.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hand AGI = 91,524.4121 + taxable SS 17,624.75 (0.85 x 20,735, capped) = 109,149.1621. latest_c_ca_hold_2025.py:97 sets the standard deduction to 5,706; lines 53-61 hold the 2025 bracket thresholds; the rates come from rates/single.yaml. The schedule applied to 103,443.16 gives 6,058.8521, equal to the sweep. Without the convention, 2.15.17 alone uses a standard deduction of 5,835.31 and uprated thresholds, giving 5,966.12. So the convention matters, and the sweep used it." + }, + { + "claim": "114 VA withholding estimate is $5,367.30.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hand AGI = 86,743.766 + taxable SS 19,828.80 = 106,572.5656. deductions/standard.yaml SINGLE is 8,750 from 2025-01-01 (next change 2027); rates.yaml is 2/3/5/5.75% at 0/3k/5k/17k. 720 + 0.0575 x 80,822.57 = 5,367.2975 (sweep 5,367.2974). No convention changes VA." + }, + { + "claim": "078 MD withholding estimate is $15,791.66 with c_md_2026.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hand AGI = 198,505 + 1,631.9117 = 200,136.9117. latest_c_md_2026.py:34 sets deductions.standard.max SINGLE to 3,400 for 2026 (2.15.17 alone: 2,800). Reduced income 196,736.91 gives state tax 9,830.53 on rates/single.yaml. County tax is 0.0303 x 196,736.91 = 5,961.13 at the Allegany flat rate; the engine's county_str is ALLEGANY_COUNTY_MD, and md_withheld_income_tax.py:30-47 falls back to it. Total 15,791.6586 (sweep 15,791.6582). Without the convention the estimate is 15,842.84." + }, + { + "claim": "120 CT withholding estimate is $12,010.05.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hand AGI = 234,385.356. I reproduced the engine's treatment: the 401(k) deferral reduces wages, and the farm-rent loss (2,446.59) and the IRA contribution (28.85) come off as above-the-line deductions, matching irs_gross_income - AGI = 2,475.44 in the engine. personal/max_amount.yaml SINGLE is 15,000; rates/single.yaml for 2024 on is 2/4.5/5.5/6/6.5/6.9/6.99%. Tax on 219,385.36 = 12,010.0481 (sweep 12,010.0488). The IRA deduction is the known r02_ira_219g defect, already the exclusion reason for this output." + }, + { + "claim": "022 federal income tax before refundable credits: reference 11,113.57, liability 11,895.23, zero 12,192.29.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "From first principles: itemized deductions = SALT 14,887.85 (8,829 + 6,058.85) + charitable 14,847.67 (the 0.5% x AGI floor of 545.75 comes off the $700 non-cash gift first, per charitable_deduction.py:50-75) + medical 0. The medical expenses are 5,350.80: 2,416 of premiums + 2,434.80 of modeled Part B (12 x 202.90) + 500; this is under the 7.5% floor of 8,186.19, and the OTC expenses are excluded per itemized_medical_expenses.py:25-28. Total 29,735.52, which beats the 18,150 standard deduction. Senior deduction = 6,000 - 0.06 x 34,149.16 = 3,951.05. QBI deduction = 0.2 x 4,550 of rental income = 910; qbi/income_definition.yaml includes rental_income, and the cap of 15,092.52 does not bind. Taxable income 74,552.59 on the 2026 brackets (12,400/50,400/105,700/201,775...) gives 11,113.57. Liability reading: SALT 11,334.87, taxable income 78,105.58, tax 11,895.23. Zero reading: SALT takes sales tax 1,155.60, giving 9,984.60, taxable income 79,455.85, tax 12,192.29. All match the engine to within 0.1 cent. Delta = 0.22 x 3,552.98 = 781.66." + }, + { + "claim": "081 federal income tax before refundable credits: reference 26,932.27, liability 26,991.31, zero 28,763.81.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Itemized deductions = SALT 14,127.41 + mortgage interest 16,900 = 31,027.41; medical 2,000 is under the 13,056.61 floor. No senior deduction (age 30). The auto-loan interest deduction phases out completely (engine 0). QBI deduction = 0.2 x 6.2225 of REIT income = 1.24. Taxable income 143,059.47 gives 17,966 + 0.24 x 37,359.47 = 26,932.27. Liability reading: SALT 13,881.41, taxable income 143,305.47, tax 26,991.31. Zero reading: SALT 6,496 (sales tax 853), taxable income 150,690.87, tax 28,763.81. Delta = 0.24 x 246 = 59.04. NIIT, AMT and nonrefundable credits are 0 in the engine." + }, + { + "claim": "114 federal income tax before refundable credits: reference 10,729.61, liability 11,137.31, zero 11,758.09.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Itemized deductions = SALT 9,431.59 + charitable 10,913.78 + medical 4,441.86 = 24,787.23. Medical: 10,000 + 2,434.80 of modeled Part B = 12,434.80, minus the 7,992.94 floor. Senior deduction = 6,000 - 0.06 x 31,572.57 = 4,105.65. QBI deduction = 0.2 x 24,361.77 = 4,872.35, against a cap of 15,535.94; taxable income is far below the 201,750 phase-out start. Taxable income 72,807.33 gives 10,729.61. Liability reading: taxable income 74,660.49, tax 11,137.31. Zero reading: SALT 4,756.69 (sales tax 692.40), taxable income 77,482.23, tax 11,758.09. Under zero the household still itemizes: 20,112 vs 18,150 + 1,000 non-itemizer charitable deduction. Delta = 0.22 x 1,853.15 = 407.69." + }, + { + "claim": "Neither the QBI taxable-income limit nor anything else interacts with itemized deductions enough to bend the deltas.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "taxable_income_less_qbid.py:14-32 subtracts itemized deductions, so the QBI cap (20% of taxable income) does move with SALT. In every reading the cap stays between 15,092 and 30,138, far above 20% x QBI (910, 1.24 and 4,872.35). The SSTB/W-2 phase-in starts at 201,750 of taxable income. The senior deduction depends only on MAGI (additional_senior_deduction_magi.py:16-26). The charitable and medical floors depend on AGI only. The OBBBA 2/37 itemized limitation (itemized_taxable_income_deductions_reduction.py:26-39) applies only above 640,600. The itemize choice compares federal income_tax between branches (tax_unit_itemizes.py:15-36, tax_liability_if_itemizing.py:11-17) and never flips. So each delta is exactly the marginal rate times the change in SALT; 120 under zero crosses from the 24% into the 32% bracket, and the sweep's 3,203.27 is consistent with that." + }, + { + "claim": "Only five outputs move, and no other output changes by even a cent; the baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "From sweep_salt_withholding.csv: 1,984 rows, 56 excluded. The maximum |baseline - reference| over scored rows is 0.0. In each of the three readings exactly five rows have |delta| > 0.005, all federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits for 022/078/081/114/120, and the maximum |delta| among all other rows is exactly 0.0. Only 9 of 100 households itemize, and 4 of those have $0 federal tax." + }, + { + "claim": "The iteration in sweep_salt_withholding.py is sound, and for these states the liability is not circular in practice.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "sweep_salt_withholding.py:139-149 computes state + MD county - NYC (net also subtracts refundable credits, floored at 0); lines 197-212 run the fixed point with tolerance 0.005 and at most 25 iterations. All 100 households converged at iteration 1 for both liability and net (I counted from the households JSON), so the loop never had to iterate. Channels by state: MA's medical exemption (ma_part_b_taxable_income_exemption.py:36-40) depends only on the federal itemize flag; its charitable deduction (ma_part_b_taxable_income_deductions.py:42) uses the federal charitable deduction, which has no SALT term. CA itemized deductions = itemized_deductions_less_salt + real_estate_taxes (ca_itemized_deductions_pre_limitation.py:16-20), so no state income tax enters; the CA dependent-care credit reads federal income_tax_before_credits (ca_federal_capped_cdcc.py:17), but 022 has no dependents. VA adds and then subtracts state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax (va_itemized_deductions.py:17-33), so it cancels below the applicable amount (332,700 single in 2025, versus 114's AGI of 106,573); only above that amount does va_reduced_itemized_deductions.py:89-98 make it circular. MD uses itemized_deductions_less_salt + capped_property_taxes (md_itemized_deductions.py:20-24) plus the federal itemize flag (md_deductions.py:29-30). A grep finds no CT read of federal SALT or federal tax. Elsewhere, CO (co_state_addback.py:18) and MO (mo_net_state_income_taxes.py:27) read state_withheld_income_tax directly and are genuinely circular, which is what the iteration handles; but the CO/MO households do not itemize." + }, + { + "claim": "Montana's federal-tax deduction reads mt_withheld_income_tax directly, so the sweep's tax-unit override does not reach it.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization.py:23-26 returns min(mt_withheld_income_tax, cap) as a 'federal income tax deduction'. That person-level variable is not replaced when the sweep sets the tax-unit state_withheld_income_tax. It has no effect here: the only MT household, scenario_100, has $0 withholding and does not itemize. Whether this variable is live in 2026 Montana law is unverified." + }, + { + "claim": "The override also feeds benefit-program deductions.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "state_withheld_income_tax is also read by spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings.py:13, ca_scc_general_assistance_earned_income_deductions.py:26, the CA Riverside general relief sources.yaml:4, and the IL AABD exemption sources.yaml:4. Setting the input therefore changes those too. No scored output moved (max delta 0.0), so the result is unaffected." + }, + { + "claim": "state_withheld_income_tax carries the label 'state income tax before refundable credits'.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "state_withheld_income_tax.py:7 uses that label, but the variable is the AGI-formula withholding estimate. The mislabel invites exactly the misreading this finding corrects, so any write-up should name the formulas, not the label." + }, + { + "claim": "The liability-reading alternatives for 022 and 081 use engine state liabilities that carry known defects.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "reference_exclusions.json already excludes 022's state output (r11_ca_itemized_conformity: frozen 2,439.65, alternative 1,968.81 on 1.755.4) and 081's (r22_ma_part_a_loss_offset: corrected 8,232.90). The proposed records disclose both. My hand recompute with the corrected 081 liability gives 26,992.6335, or 26,992.6352 with the engine's float32 AGI. That is $26,992.63 rather than the stated $26,992.64, a sub-cent rounding effect. For 022, a corrected CA liability (an approximation I did not run on 2.15.17: about 2,035) would put the alternative near 11,999 rather than 11,895.23. The direction stated in the note is correct, since the corrected liability is still above the 1,155.60 sales-tax alternative." + } + ], + "corrections_required": [ + "scenario_081 proposed note: with the corrected MA liability (8,232.90) the hand value is $26,992.63; $26,992.64 comes from the engine's float32 AGI (26,992.6352). Either value is fine, but say which precision it uses.", + "In any write-up, do not quote the variable's label: state_withheld_income_tax.py:7 calls it 'state income tax before refundable credits', but it is the sum of the per-state formula withholding estimates listed in parameters/gov/states/household/state_withheld_income_tax.yaml.", + "The sweep's write-up should say the fixed-point iteration never had to iterate: 300 of 300 household-readings converged on the first pass. Among these five states, the only ways state tax could depend on SALT are the federal itemization flag, Virginia above its applicable amount, and California's CDCC cap, and none applies to the itemizing households. Saying 'iterated to a fixed point' without this overstates what the iteration did.", + "Optional caveat for scenario_022's alternative value: the liability reading inherits the r11 California itemized-deduction defect, so a corrected CA liability would put the alternative near $11,999 (my estimate, not run on 2.15.17) rather than $11,895.23. The exclusion decision does not change." + ], + "follow_ups": [ + "Check whether mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization (variables/gov/states/mt/tax/income/deductions/itemized/federal_itemization/mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization.py:23) is live for 2026. If so, it is an engine defect: it uses Montana's own withholding estimate as the federal-tax deduction. It is also a gap in any override that sets only the tax-unit state_withheld_income_tax.", + "Consider an upstream policyengine-us issue: the federal SALT income-tax part comes from AGI-formula withholding proxies (state_withheld_income_tax.yaml), and the variable's label wrongly reads 'state income tax before refundable credits'.", + "If an exact alternative value is wanted for scenario_022 under a corrected California liability, port r11_ca_itemized_conformity_v2 to 2.15.17 and rerun the liability reading." + ], + "artifacts": [ + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/mechanism/handcalc.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/mechanism/handcalc_output.txt", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/mechanism/engine_dump.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/mechanism/engine_dump.json" + ] + }, + { + "key": "differential", + "verdict": "confirmed", + "summary": "I built a separate harness from scratch and it confirms the finding exactly. It does not import or copy sweep_salt_withholding.py, and it uses a different mechanism. The main sweep sets the tax-unit input state_withheld_income_tax. Mine sets the per-person input _withheld_income_tax on the tax-unit head and 0 on every other member. For the \"liability\" reading I built the state amount independently: I grouped the reference system's gov.states.household.state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits list by state prefix, dropped NYC (which already reaches SALT through local_income_tax), and added md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits for Maryland. Each household was iterated to a fixed point from two starting values, the baseline liability and 0.\n\nReproduction checks, all 100 households on policyengine-us 2.15.17 / core 3.32.8 with latest_final:\n- My baseline matches all 1,928 scored references in reference_outputs.csv exactly (max |diff| 0).\n- Against sweep_salt_withholding.csv, my baseline, liability and zero values are bit-identical to the main sweep for all 1,984 outputs (max |diff| 0.0 in each column). No output differs by more than $0.01.\n\nMoved outputs: the set moving by more than $1 against baseline is identical to the main sweep's under both readings, and it is the same five under each. All five are federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits:\n- 022 CA: 11113.57 -> 11895.23 (liability) / 12192.29 (zero)\n- 078 MD (already excluded): 24164.46 -> 24799.16 / 27290.70\n- 081 MA: 26932.27 -> 26991.31 / 28763.81\n- 114 VA: 10729.61 -> 11137.31 / 11758.09\n- 120 CT (already excluded): 40416.67 -> 40438.95 / 43619.93\n\nNo other output changes by more than 1e-9.\n\nThe per-household withholding at the fixed point equals the main sweep's \"withheld\" value in all 100 households. Changing the withholding input never changes any state's liability (max change 0 across 79 households in states that have a withholding variable). So the fixed point is reached at once (1 iteration from the baseline start, at most 2 from 0) and is the same from both starts.\n\nMontana question: mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization is the only thing that reads a per-state withholding variable directly, so it is where the two mechanisms could differ. It cannot change any output. Its chain ends at state_itemized_deductions, which no variable or parameter in 2.15.17 reads. For the only MT household (scenario_100) the withholding estimate and the MT liability are both 0. A diagnostic run of that household with the tax-unit mechanism gave identical outputs.", + "findings": [ + { + "claim": "Baseline (reference system = policyengine-us 2.15.17 + latest_final) reproduces all 1,928 scored references", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "compare.log: scored 1928 (1984 minus 56 exclusions loaded with policybench.reference_exclusions.load_reference_exclusions); exact float equality 1928/1928, max |diff| 0. Outputs computed as in sweep_latest.py:118-130 (scenario_from_dict -> to_pe_household, expand_programs_for_scenario with meta.json programs, _pe_variable_for_output, _extract_person_value, sim.calculate(var, 2026)). System built once per worker: CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=latest_final.reform), from a scratch copy of 2026-09-28/fixes plus 2026-09-22/fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json. Of the 56 excluded rows, 19 differ from their frozen values, as expected (e.g. 120 CT federal frozen 40021.82 vs engine 40416.67)." + }, + { + "claim": "The partnership_se_income rename is needed for exactly one household", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Only scenario_064 (WI, head partnership_se_income=14000) carries it. In 2.15.17, partnership_se_income does not exist and partnership_self_employment_net_earnings does (run.log). Without the rename, Simulation raises SituationParsingError (probe_rename.py). My builder applies the same rename as sweep_latest.py:60-69." + }, + { + "claim": "Under the liability and zero readings only five outputs move, all federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits (022, 078, 081, 114, 120), with the stated values", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "compare.log: liability moves 5 outputs by more than $1, and 5 by more than 1e-9 (the same five). Deltas: 022 +781.657227, 078 +634.707031, 081 +59.039062, 114 +407.694336, 120 +22.285156. Zero deltas: +1078.714844, +3126.240234, +1831.537109, +1028.477539, +3203.265625. The moved set matches the main sweep under both readings (symmetric difference empty)." + }, + { + "claim": "The per-person per-state input mechanism and the main sweep's tax-unit input give the same values", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "compare.log: mine vs sweep_salt_withholding.csv has 1984/1984 exactly equal values for each of baseline, liability and zero (max |diff| 0). households_fixed_point.csv: my fixed-point withholding equals the main sweep's liability.withheld in all 100 households. A self-check in the harness confirmed state_withheld_income_tax equals the value placed on the head, and is 0 under zero." + }, + { + "claim": "The liability fixed point is reached immediately and is unique", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Changing the withholding input never changed the state liability (max change 0 across readings, 79 households in states with a withholding variable). From the baseline start it converged in 1 iteration; from 0, in at most 2. Both starts give identical outputs (liability vs liability_from0 max |diff| 0)." + }, + { + "claim": "2.15.17 fills SALT's income part from state_withheld_income_tax, a sum of per-state formula estimates such as MA = 5% x (person AGI - 4,400)", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax.py takes max_(state_withheld_income_tax + local_income_tax, state_sales_tax + local_sales_tax). state_withheld_income_tax.py adds the list gov.states.household.state_withheld_income_tax (43 Person-level, defined_for-state variables). ma_withheld_income_tax.py computes rates.part_b * max(adjusted_gross_income_person - exemptions.personal['SINGLE'], 0); in 2026, part_b = 0.05 and the exemption = 4400. md_withheld_income_tax.py includes the county estimate. 49 of the 79 households in states with a withholding variable have a formula estimate that differs from the liability by more than $0.01." + }, + { + "claim": "Montana reads mt_withheld_income_tax directly, so the two mechanisms could differ there, but this cannot affect any output", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "grep over variables/ and parameters/: the only direct reader of a per-state withholding variable is mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization.py:23. It feeds mt_itemized_deductions_for_federal_itemization_{indiv,joint} and then state_itemized_deductions.py:29-30. grep -w finds no reader of state_itemized_deductions in 2.15.17 variables or parameters, and the README in federal_itemization/ says these files 'are not applied in the final Montana income tax calculation'. For the only MT household (scenario_100) the mt_withheld estimate is 0 and the MT liability is 0. A tax-unit-input diagnostic run of scenario_100 gave outputs identical to mine." + }, + { + "claim": "Readers of the tax-unit state_withheld_income_tax see the same value under both mechanisms", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "The tax-unit readers are CO co_state_addback, MO mo_net_state_income_taxes, spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings, the CA SCC GA deduction, CA Riverside GR sources and IL AABD sources. My mechanism makes the tax-unit sum equal the main sweep's input. In practice: CO 043 has 0 withholding, and MO 093 (formula 3408.52 vs liability 3388.25) does not itemize under any reading. No state output moves." + }, + { + "claim": "The 'minus NYC' adjustment and states without a withholding variable do not affect results here", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "Not a defect; a coverage limit of the test data. No household has a nonzero local_income_tax or NYC tax, so the NYC branch is never exercised. 21 households (TX, FL, WA, NH, SD) have no _withheld_income_tax variable, and every one has a state liability of 0, including the WA capital-gains and NH entries in the state list. The two mechanisms are therefore equivalent on this sample but untested for NYC, WA or NH tax." + }, + { + "claim": "Only five federal outputs move", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "Context, not a contradiction: six households itemize and see their SALT deduction change. The sixth, scenario_072 MI, drops from 973.28 to 814.00 under both readings because sales tax takes over, but its federal income tax before refundable credits is 0 in every reading, so no output moves. Of the remaining households in states with a withholding variable, under liability: 46 keep the same income-or-sales maximum, 26 change SALT but take the standard deduction both ways, and 1 (005) is held at the SALT cap (household_channels.csv)." + } + ], + "corrections_required": [], + "follow_ups": [ + "The 'net' reading was not checked independently; this role covered only liability and zero.", + "No household in the 100 has NYC or other local income tax, or WA/NH state tax, so the NYC-exclusion and missing-withholding-variable cases are untested by these data. Any future household set with NYC residents should re-check that liability excludes NYC tax, which reaches SALT through local_income_tax." + ], + "artifacts": [ + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/differential_salt.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/compare.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/channels.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/probe_rename.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/out/outputs.csv", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/out/comparison.csv", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/out/households_fixed_point.csv", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/out/household_channels.csv", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/out/households.json", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/run.log", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/compare.log", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/differential/channels.log" + ] + }, + { + "key": "adversarial", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_corrections", + "summary": "I could not refute the proposal. The rule in policybench/reference_exclusions.py requires excluding these outputs, but the records and the release need corrections first.\n\nThe strongest counter-argument is that the published record has already accepted the withholding proxy as part of how the reference is computed, more than once, and on purpose:\n- On 2026-09-22, convention c_ca_hold_2025 regenerated scenario_022's federal reference through the proxy (11,131.33 -> 11,113.57). The audit traced the path ca_withheld_income_tax -> state_withheld_income_tax -> salt in reference_audit/2026-09-22/verification/v5a_projection_irs_wi_id_ca.md:243-269, and line 7 of that file says the audit \"preserve[s] ... withholding/local-sales proxies\".\n- Also on 2026-09-22, c_md_2026 regenerated scenario_078's federal reference. Sidecar revision[6] is labelled \"federal tax through the Maryland withholding proxy\". latest_c_md_2026.py names md_withheld_income_tax as the only live reader of the allowance it sets.\n- The paper (paper.txt:1041) says Maryland's withholding allowance \"reaches federal tax through the state and local tax deduction\". The 078 and 120 records describe the proxy without flagging it.\n\nOn top of that, the prompt contract (policybench/prompts.py:19-22: \"Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 ... Do not infer unlisted ... expenses\") arguably settles the question as zero paid. On that view this is a wrong reference to regenerate, not an ambiguity. And the proposal's own alternative values leave out deductible state payroll contributions.\n\nNone of this saves the frozen reference:\n- The prior acceptance was never a ruling on whether the proxy is a valid reading of the facts. The audits only scoped it out.\n- The proxy matches no reading a careful filer could take. It applies a rate schedule to the whole federal AGI, including Social Security that CA and VA exempt and non-wage income. 022's proxy is $6,058.85 against the engine's own CA tax of $2,505.87; 114's is $5,367.30 against $3,514.15.\n- The weekly-hours precedent matches this case closely: the contract said 0, the engine filled in a value, and the output was excluded rather than regenerated.\n- Both readings actually occur. No model hit any of the three references exactly (0 of 46 each). Claude Fable 5 wrote \"MA income tax withholding treated as 0\". Grok-4.7 and Inkling land exactly on 022's zero reading ($12,192). The top models on 081 (GPT-6.1 Sol 26,993.29, Opus 5.5 26,992.66, GPT-5.6 Sol 26,992.59) sit on the liability reading with the corrected MA tax ($26,992.64).\n\nCorrections needed:\n- **New engine defect: payroll contributions missing from SALT.** policyengine-us 2.15.17 computes mandatory employee state payroll contributions for the payroll_tax output but leaves them out of SALT. Under Rev. Rul. 2025-4 (which cites Trujillo for CA SDI) they are deductible state income taxes. Adding them moves 022, 081 and 120 under every reading where income tax beats sales tax.\n- **Judge annotations describe the proxy as state income tax.** They then mark careful answers as llm_error.\n- **The records do not fit the existing tests.** A release appending them fails record-structure tests on decided_on, the c_ca_hold_2025 regeneration ledger, builder ordering and the hard-coded counts.\n- **Wording in the records.** It calls a formula variable \"the engine input\". It cites the zero rule, then records the liability value.\n\nThe repo and the snapshot were not modified. All work is in the scratch directory.", + "findings": [ + { + "claim": "No prompt states an input that settles state income tax withheld or paid", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "I scanned the household block of all 100 prompts (tool and json bodies are identical) in review/data.json.gz for withholding, estimated payments, state tax paid, box 17, prior-year and 'paid during'. The only matches are 8 'state and local tax refund income' lines (scenarios 005, 033, 074, 078, 082, 088, 117, 120). The 022, 081 and 114 prompts list wages, real estate taxes and so on, but no tax paid. scenarios.csv carries no *withh*, *estimated_tax* or *income_tax* field. The prompt vocabulary does list taxes paid as inputs elsewhere ('real estate taxes', 'excess withheld payroll tax', prompts.py:92,126), so state income tax paid is an unlisted numeric input." + }, + { + "claim": "The prompt contract or output definitions make the engine's withholding estimate the intended reading", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "prompts.py:19-22 says 'Treat any unlisted numeric input as 0 ... Do not infer unlisted income, expenses ...', which points to the zero reading, not the proxy. 'Assume tax filing and program take-up' does not address payments. benchmark_specs.json defines federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits with no SALT or withholding language (grep for itemiz, deduction, withh, paid, estimated finds nothing). The engine's own label hints that the variable stands in for liability: state_withheld_income_tax.py:7 is label = 'state income tax before refundable credits'. Neither reading is 'clearly right'. Weekly hours set the precedent: the contract said 0, the stated wages implied hours, and the output was excluded." + }, + { + "claim": "The proposal's numbers are reproducible (proxy, liability, liability/zero outputs, 081 corrected value)", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "I wrote my own recomputation (scratch verify_three.py, policyengine-us 2.15.17 plus latest_final). Baseline equals the reference for 022, 081 and 114. Proxy (state_withheld_income_tax): 6,058.85 / 8,484.41 / 5,367.30. Engine state tax before refundable credits, a fixed point reached on the first iteration: 2,505.87 / 8,238.41 / 3,514.15. Federal output under liability: 11,895.23 / 26,991.31 / 11,137.31. Under zero: 12,192.29 / 28,763.81 / 11,758.09. 081 with the corrected MA tax of 8,232.90: 26,992.64. Feeding the proxy back in as an input returns the reference exactly. Sweep log: liability, net and zero each move only the 5 listed outputs; every other delta is 0." + }, + { + "claim": "The PROXY descriptions in the records match the engine formulas", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "ca_withheld_income_tax.py:13-17: AGI minus the SINGLE standard deduction, through rates.single. ma_withheld_income_tax.py:13-19: rates.part_b x (AGI - exemptions.personal SINGLE). va_withheld_income_tax.py:13-17: VA rates on AGI minus the SINGLE standard deduction. By hand, 2025 CA single brackets on 109,149.16 - 5,706 give exactly 6,058.85; 0.05 x (174,088.12 - 4,400) = 8,484.41; VA 720 + 5.75% x (106,572.56 - 8,750 - 17,000) = 5,367.30. The proxy taxes the whole AGI, including taxable Social Security of $17,624.75 (022) and $19,828.80 (114), which CA and VA exempt. That state rule is my own knowledge and was not checked in source this session. The records do not say this, and it strengthens the case." + }, + { + "claim": "Law: SALT income tax is deductible in the year paid; withholding is paid when withheld; Schedule A 5a lists amounts withheld, estimates paid and prior-year tax paid in the year", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Fetched this session: 26 U.S.C. 164(a), 'allowed as a deduction for the taxable year within which paid or accrued', (a)(3) income taxes; 164(b)(5)(A), the sales-tax election 'without regard to the reference to State and local income taxes'; 26 CFR 1.164-1(a), 'within which paid or accrued, according to the method of accounting'; 2025 Schedule A instructions line 5a: taxes withheld from salary during the year, prior-year tax paid during the year, estimates made during the year, mandatory CA/NJ/NY/PA/RI/AK/WA contributions. Rev. Rul. 2025-4 (PDF text extracted) holds that a withheld PFML contribution is deductible 'in 2025, the taxable year in which such amount is withheld'. From my own knowledge, not fetched: the general rule for cash-basis individuals. A careful reader could take the facts as 'liability paid in-year' (a W-2 earner with wages listed) or as 'zero paid' (the contract). The proxy is neither." + }, + { + "claim": "The existing record already treats the withholding proxy as an accepted mechanism", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Sidecar revision[1] c_ca_hold_2025 changed scenario_022 federal from 11,131.33 to 11,113.57, scored. v5a_projection_irs_wi_id_ca.md:245-269 traces it through ca_withheld_income_tax and calls it 'held_convention'; line 7: 'preserve unrelated engine formulas, including withholding/local-sales proxies'. Revision[6] c_md_2026, outputs 'federal tax through the Maryland withholding proxy', changed 078 federal from 24,772.69 to 24,780.61. v5b:207-234 notes the proxy 'excludes the taxpayer's Maryland liability calculation'. The 078 record note cites 'the Maryland withholding proxy (c_md_2026)'. The 120 recheck cites 'ct_withheld_income_tax proxy'. paper.txt:1041 and 1125 publish this. None of these records rules on whether the proxy is a valid reading of the stated facts, so excluding now reverses a disclosed practice, not a decision. A release has to supersede the 022 regeneration in the ledger and revise the paper text." + }, + { + "claim": "Exclusion, rather than regeneration or holding as a convention, is what the stated rule requires", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "reference_exclusions.py:7-14 excludes an output when its reference depends on something the facts never carried and a careful reader could take the facts the other way. Both conditions hold. Conventions, per paper.txt:1041, 'change parameter values and no rule', so they cannot carry an assumption about unstated payments. Regenerating under the liability reading would score models against an unstated assumption. Regenerating under zero follows the contract but conflicts with the weekly-hours precedent, which excluded. One caveat: 'engine input' is loose. state_withheld_income_tax is an adds variable (state_withheld_income_tax.py:10) that the engine computes when the household data do not set it, so it is more of a default formula than an input. That is a better fit than reference_engine_defect, which needs facts the prompt states." + }, + { + "claim": "The c_md_2026 withholding-allowance convention should be rerun", + "status": "unverified", + "evidence": "Its withholding-allowance part moved only 078 federal, which has been excluded since 2026-09-29. Its other changed output, 068 state, comes from the flat standard deduction and CDCC holds (latest_c_md_2026.py VALUES), which stay valid. Excluding the proxy outputs therefore leaves the allowance with no scored effect, so a rerun is not needed. The paper's framing at lines 1041 and 1125, and the c_ca_hold_2025 narrative for 022 federal, should still say that the federal outputs the withholding estimate reaches are now excluded." + }, + { + "claim": "Engine SALT omits mandatory employee state payroll contributions, moving 022/081/120 under every income-tax reading", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "SALT sources (parameters/gov/irs/deductions/itemized/salt_and_real_estate/sources.yaml) are state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax plus real_estate_taxes. The income side (state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax.py:13-15) is state_withheld_income_tax plus local_income_tax. The engine still computes employee_state_payroll_tax inside payroll_tax: 022's payroll reference of 4,710.83 includes CA SDI of 684.26. Rev. Rul. 2025-4 treats withheld PFML contributions as 164(a)(3) income taxes and cites Trujillo, 68 T.C. 670, for CA SDI. My scratch sweep_payroll_salt.py over all 100 households adds them on the income side; baseline mismatches were 0. Only three outputs move. 022: 10,963.04 (proxy) and 11,744.69 (liability), esp $684.26. 081: 26,739.07 and 26,798.11, MA PFML $805.01. 120 (excluded): 40,217.95 and 40,240.24, CT $827.98. The 022 and 081 alternative_values omit this, and the scored outputs are excluded either way. Under zero, sales tax (1,155.60 and 853) still beats the contributions, so nothing changes." + }, + { + "claim": "Record mechanics: the records load and verify against reference_outputs.csv", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "I appended the 3 records to a scratch copy (reference_exclusions.with_proposed.json). load_reference_exclusions and verify_exclusions_against_reference pass with 59 records. split_reference leaves 1,925 scored and 59 excluded. Excluded households rise from 39 to 40, and scenario_114 is the new one." + }, + { + "claim": "A release adding these records would pass the existing tests", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "I ran the tests on a scratch repo copy (hypothesis installed to a scratch path). Original record: 6 failures, all environment-related (no git): 2 in test_adjudications, 3 in test_notes, test_dashboard_blob_is_not_committed. With the proposed records: 26 failed, so 20 are new. Record-level failures: test_reference_audit.py:299 test_records_after_the_wave_carry_their_root_cause_date ('2026-10-05' == '2026-09-22'; it would then KeyError on the missing us_adjudications entries). test_reference_audit.py:175 test_every_regeneration_names_a_committed_fix (022 federal was regenerated by c_ca_hold_2025 and is asserted to stay scored). test_reference_upgrade.py:223 test_the_builder_writes_the_committed_records (the tail order of the 2026-09-28 builder). test_reference_upgrade.py:101 (the sweep table's excluded column). test_reference_exclusions.py:156 (56). Count tests: test_reference_upgrade.py:360 (1,928); test_paper_results.py:327-331 and :358 (56, '39 households', 28 unlisted, 1,928); test_paper_results.py:411 ({'1.755.4': 52, '2.15.17': 4} becomes 2.15.17: 7); test_adjudications.py:221-298 (69 cases, prompt_ambiguity 28, 56). Plus disclosure and render tests and the snapshot manifest hashes." + }, + { + "claim": "alternative_reading / note text is accurate and supported", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "Most of the numbers check out. Problems: (a) 'the engine input state_withheld_income_tax' is loose: it is a formula (adds) variable that the household data never set. (b) Each alternative_reading opens with the zero rule but records the liability value. The weekly-hours precedent (scenario_112 and 056 records) recorded the zero-reading value. Either record zero or say why liability is the primary alternative. (c) The 022 note's claim that the corrected liability gives a higher alternative is directional and was not computed on 2.15.17. With the 1.755.4-corrected $1,968.81 I get 12,013.38, which agrees in direction. (d) The notes say nothing of the omitted payroll contributions. (e) They do not mention that the proxy applies to all AGI, including Social Security the state exempts. (f) 078 note_to_append: the claim that the cap no longer binds checks out: 42,251.66 - 15,791.66 + 11,295.39 = 37,755.39 < 40,400." + }, + { + "claim": "Judge annotations and case notes need changes if the outputs are excluded", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "In the payload the three outputs have 135 llm_error rows and 3 parse_contract_failure rows. Excluded rows elsewhere flip to failureSource prompt_ambiguity (033 example), so the 135 llm_error rows should flip the same way. us_adjudications.json needs 3 entries (69 -> 72), and us_case_notes.csv case_failure_sources need the same change. The annotation text itself states false mechanisms. 081 case note: '$8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax', when the engine's MA tax is $8,238.41. 081 row notes flag GPT-6.1 Sol, Opus 5.5 (MA tax $8,238.70) and others 'instead of the engine's $8,484.41'. Claude Fable 5's row calls the contract-literal zero reading an error. 114 case note: '$5,367.59 state income tax', where the proxy is $5,367.30 and the engine's VA tax $3,514.15; Opus 5.5 at $3,555 and Fable 5.1 at $3,524 are marked wrong. 022 case note: 'about $6,059 of estimated CA income tax'. These need rewording even after the rows stop being scored." + }, + { + "claim": "Leaderboard impact as reported", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "leaderboard_impact_models.csv: gpt-6-sol 95.0035 -> 95.6146. Exact rank: gpt-6-luna 4 -> 5 and claude-sonnet-5.5 5 -> 4. Federal n delta -138. Gains are uniform in sign because no model hit any of the three references (0/46 each, payload exact flags). One more rank change: the bounded-score rank of gpt-5.5 moves 14 -> 13. Paper figures that change: abstract (95.0%, 65.3%, Opus 4.8/4.7, always-zero baseline gap), 28 -> 31 prompt_ambiguity, '56 outputs in 39 households' -> 59 in 40, 1,928 -> 1,925, '2,111 annotated rows ... 2,056' -> 2,249 / 2,191 (computed from the payload), the 69-case count, the list of unlisted inputs, the sweep narrative at 1079, and Table 5." + } + ], + "corrections_required": [ + "Record (or disclose in each note) that the 'liability' alternative values for 022 and 081 leave out mandatory employee state payroll contributions that are deductible under 164(a)(3) (CA SDI $684.26; MA PFML $805.01; Rev. Rul. 2025-4; Trujillo). Including them gives 11,744.69 (022) and 26,798.11 (081). Also add the note to 120's existing r02 record (40,240.24 on the liability reading).", + "Rewrite the unlisted_input text. state_withheld_income_tax is an engine formula variable (an adds list of per-state *_withheld_income_tax formulas on federal AGI) that the household data never set and the prompt never lists. It is not an 'engine input'.", + "Make alternative_reading and alternative_value agree with the weekly-hours precedent. Either record the zero-reading value (12,192.29 / 28,763.81 / 11,758.09) as alternative_value with liability in the note, or state why liability is the primary alternative. The text currently cites the zero rule and records liability.", + "Add to the records that the proxy applies the state schedule to the whole federal AGI, including taxable Social Security that CA ($17,624.75 in 022) and VA ($19,828.80 in 114) exempt. This shows the reference matches no reading of the facts, not just a different one.", + "Release mechanics: supersede c_ca_hold_2025's scored regeneration of scenario_022 federal in the sidecar (test_reference_audit.py:175); add 3 us_adjudications.json entries and extend the decided_on date rule (test_reference_audit.py:286-299); keep test_reference_upgrade.py:223's builder tail order or extend the builder; update the hard-coded counts (56 to 59, 28 to 31 unlisted, 1,928 to 1,925, 39 to 40 households, 69 to 72 adjudications, 2.15.17-era exclusions 4 to 7).", + "Rewrite the 022, 081 and 114 case annotations and row annotations that call the withholding proxy the household's state income tax (for example 081: '$8,484.41 of Massachusetts income tax'; 114: '$5,367.59 state income tax'), and flip the 135 llm_error rows to prompt_ambiguity as for other excluded outputs.", + "Revise paper.txt:1041 and 1125, and the c_ca_hold_2025 regeneration narrative, so they say the federal outputs the withholding estimate reaches are excluded. Add the withholding reading to the unlisted-input list and the sweep narrative (paper.txt:1069-1081), and regenerate the abstract and Table 5 figures." + ], + "follow_ups": [ + "File an upstream policyengine-us issue: SALT (state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax) omits employee_state_payroll_tax although 164(a)(3) and Rev. Rul. 2025-4 treat mandatory SDI/PFML contributions as deductible state income taxes. Also file one on using the AGI-based *_withheld_income_tax proxy in place of liability or stated payments.", + "Queue the exclusion for Max's ruling (it changes published scores and abstract numbers), presenting the counter-argument that the 09-22 conventions and paper.txt:1041 already accepted the proxy.", + "Optional robustness: recompute 022's alternative on 2.15.17 with r11_ca_itemized_conformity applied, rather than relying on the directional claim. With the 1.755.4-corrected $1,968.81 it is 12,013.38.", + "Check whether any other reference reads state_withheld_income_tax through state formulas (MO mo_net_state_income_taxes, CO co_state_addback, HI SALT). The sweep fed it as a tax-unit input and found no state output moving, but a household with a different profile could." + ], + "artifacts": [ + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/verify_three.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/verify_three.json", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/sweep_payroll_salt.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/sweep_payroll_salt.csv", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/sweep_payroll_salt.log", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/reference_exclusions.with_proposed.json", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/tests_with_proposed.txt", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/adversarial/repo" + ] + }, + { + "key": "impact", + "verdict": "confirmed_with_corrections", + "summary": "The leaderboard-impact numbers reproduce exactly. I ran a copy of leaderboard_impact.py with its paths moved to my scratch directory, and its models CSV, programs CSV and JSON came out byte-identical (cmp) to the main session's verification/ files. The log differs only by stderr DtypeWarnings.\n\nI also scored both ways by calling policybench.analysis functions directly, without the CLI. weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model and the mean of household_headline_scores(metric=\"exact\") both give GPT-6 Sol 95.003499 -> 95.614585 and Claude Opus 5.5 93.697490 -> 94.261257. They match the CLI payload's exact field for all 46 models with a maximum difference of 0.0.\n\n**Proposed payload.** Checked independently:\n- The three outputs, 138 rows, have scored=false, excludedReason=reference_depends_on_unlisted_input and excludedInput set to the state-withholding text. No other field on those rows changes.\n- referenceExclusions has 59 entries (31 unlisted-input, 28 engine-defect).\n- n is the count of scored output rows per model, unparsed rows included (analysis.py compute_metrics around line 1213 gives n=len(group); summary_by_model sums it into total_n). It falls by exactly 3 for every model, 1928 -> 1925. nParsed falls by 3 for 45 models and by 0 for kimi-k2.6, which never parsed any of the three.\n- globalWeights does not change, because it is the population-weight artifact, not computed from the sample.\n- Otherwise only aggregates change: modelStats, the federal-income-tax programStats row (n 3772 -> 3634, exact 61.61 -> 63.95), its 46 heatmap cells, and failureModes.\n- The published payload and the review copy in Downloads are identical. The unchanged-copy payload matches them except for one model's cost overlay and the annotation fields added at publish time.\n\n**Why 3 of 1,928 outputs move every model by about 0.5 pp.**\n- The headline is an equal-household mean over 100 households, so each household is 1 pp of it.\n- Output-group weights come from population_weights.json. Federal income tax carries 0.1914, second only to Medicaid at 0.2986. _row_weights_for_ground_truth (analysis.py:313-332) splits each group's weight across that household's rows and renormalizes so a household's weights sum to 1.\n- The federal tax row is therefore 0.2134 of household weight in scenario_022 and scenario_081, and 0.2000 in scenario_114. Each was worth 0.2134, 0.2134 and 0.2000 pp of every model's headline, 0.627 pp in total.\n- None of the 46 models got any of the three right (0 exact hits in 138 rows). Excluding them removes a certain zero and rescales the household's other rows by 1/(1-w).\n- So each model's change is (1/100) times the sum over the three households of S_h\u00b7w_h/(1-w_h), where S_h is the model's score on that household before the exclusion. This formula matches the computed change to 1.7e-14. The range runs from 0.420 (kimi-k2.6) to 0.611 (GPT-6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-6 Astra, GPT-6.1 Sol).\n\n**Always-zero baseline.** paper_results._always_zero_weighted_rates gives 69.980 -> 70.395. GPT-6 Sol's lead over it goes from 25.024 to 25.220 points, so the paper's \"70.0\" and \"25.0\" become \"70.4\" and \"25.2\".\n\n**Every changed published number.** I executed every python cell and all 95 inline expressions of paper/index.qmd against the published snapshot and against a scratch snapshot copy carrying the proposed exclusions. The published-snapshot run reproduces the rendered paper.txt. 22 inline expressions and 11 tables change; they are listed under findings.\n\n**Corrections and missing steps.** The proposal is not yet releasable as it stands:\n1. There are no matching developer adjudications. scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:323 stops the freeze when reference_exclusions.json and us_adjudications.json disagree.\n2. The 135 parsed annotation rows on the three outputs are labelled llm_error. As a result tests/test_paper_results.py:395-402 would fail, and the paper sentence \"the rest are answers that never parsed\" would become false.\n3. The impact script's rank summary leaves out within-1% rank swaps.", + "findings": [ + { + "claim": "leaderboard_impact.py outputs reproduce", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "I copied the script to scratch, changing only HERE (pointed at the audit dir) and OUT_DIR, then ran it with the policybench venv into scratch/run. cmp gives IDENTICAL for leaderboard_impact_models.csv, leaderboard_impact_programs.csv and leaderboard_impact.json. The log diff is only stderr DtypeWarnings. Its check_reproduces_published passed. The mtimes of the main session's verification files are unchanged (08:47)." + }, + { + "claim": "Every model's weighted exact rises 0.42-0.61 pp; GPT-6 Sol 95.00 -> 95.62", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Smallest rise 0.41983 (kimi-k2.6), largest 0.61109, mean 0.52395. GPT-6 Sol 95.003499 -> 95.614585. Computed directly with policybench.analysis.weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model and with household_headline_scores(metric='exact') averaged over households, on split_reference(ref, excl) versus split_reference(ref, excl+proposed): GPT-6 Sol 95.003499/95.614585, Claude Opus 5.5 93.697490/94.261257. Both methods agree, and match the CLI payload for all 46 models (max |diff| 0.0). Script: scratch/recompute.py; log: out/recompute.log." + }, + { + "claim": "Only headline rank change is gpt-6-luna #4 <-> claude-sonnet-5.5 #5", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Exact ranks: Luna 92.0970 -> 92.6080, Sonnet 92.0808 -> 92.6445. The published gap of 0.0162 becomes -0.0366 because Sonnet gains 0.5638 and Luna 0.5110; both display as 92.6. No other exact-rank change. Bounded-score ranks have 3 swaps, which the script's JSON reports: gpt-5.5/gpt-5.6-terra 13/14, claude-opus-5/deepseek-v4-flash-0731 23/24, minimax-m3/claude-sonnet-5 42/43. Within-1% ranks also have 3 swaps that the script does not report: gpt-6.1-sol 9->10 with grok-4.7 10->9, glm-5.3 26->27 with gemini-3.5-flash-lite 27->26, minimax-m3 39->40 with claude-opus-4.8 40->39. Smallest adjacent exact gap after the change: deepseek-v4-pro, 0.0064." + }, + { + "claim": "Federal income tax n falls by 138 (46 x 3)", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "programStats federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits: n 3772 (82 households x 46) -> 3634 (79 x 46); nParsed 3726 -> 3591. exact 61.6119 -> 63.9516, within1pct 63.6267 -> 65.6852, score 82.7011 -> 82.9114, within10pct 71.77 -> 73.12." + }, + { + "claim": "Proposed payload: three outputs present with scored=false and exclusion reason; referenceExclusions 59; n drops by exactly 3; nothing else changes except aggregates", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Checked with check_payload.py and check_payload2.py.\n- scenarioPredictions: 91,264 rows in both payloads with the same keys. Only the 3 (scenario, variable) pairs differ, 46 models each. Each changes only scored (true -> false), excludedReason=reference_depends_on_unlisted_input and excludedInput=the unlisted_input text; prediction, groundTruth and the scores are unchanged. Unscored rows go from 2,576 to 2,714.\n- referenceExclusions: 56 -> 59. The base equals the published 56; the 3 new entries carry frozen and alternative values as proposed.\n- n: 1928 -> 1925 for all 46 models. nParsed drops 3 for 45 models and 0 for kimi-k2.6.\n- globalWeights, scenarios, policyengineBundles and country are unchanged.\n- Aggregate changes: modelStats fields for all models (coverage for 4), the fed-tax programStats row, 46 fed-tax heatmap cells, and failureModes. In failureModes the fed-tax slice overallCorrectPct goes 72.65 -> 73.99 and highIncomePct 41.84 -> 43.27. The High-income segment goes 95.61 -> 95.98 (n 21321 -> 21186) and Retirement-income 95.74 -> 95.94 (n 32520 -> 32430), and the two swap places in the sort order.\n- Base payload versus published data.json.gz: identical except one model's cost and latency overlay fields and the publish-time annotation fields (referenceExplanation on all rows, failureSource/annotation on 9,971 rows), which the analyze CLI does not emit. The review copy in Downloads equals the frozen run's data.json.gz." + }, + { + "claim": "Why 3 outputs move every model ~0.5 pp, with each output's weight", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Read in analysis.py: weighted_hit_rate_scores_by_model (471-566), _row_weights_for_ground_truth (313-332), bounded_global_variable_weights (369-417, which returns the population-weight artifact when it covers the groups), household_headline_scores (569-630).\n- The headline is an equal-household mean over 100 positive-weight households, so each household is 1 pp.\n- The global household weight for federal income tax is 0.19142, second to person_medicaid_eligible at 0.29862.\n- Row weights within households: scenario_022 0.213383, scenario_081 0.213383, scenario_114 0.200000, so 0.2134, 0.2134 and 0.2000 pp of headline each. Their sum, 0.6268 pp, is the most any model can gain. Federal tax row weight across the 82 scored households: mean 0.2037, median 0.2000.\n- There are 0 exact hits in the 138 model rows, so each excluded row was a zero for every model.\n- delta = (1/100) times the sum of S_h\u00b7w_h/(1-w_h). This closed form matches the computed delta to 1.7e-14, and no other household's score changes.\n- GPT-6 Sol: +0.2134 (022), +0.2134 (081), +0.1843 (114). Per-model breakdown: out/delta_decomposition.csv." + }, + { + "claim": "Always-zero baseline 70.0% and GPT-6 Sol lead 25.0 points", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "paper_results.py:870-936 (_always_zero_weighted_rates over the headline-filtered scored reference). Published: 69.97959 exact and within-1%, lead 25.02390. Proposed: 70.39465, lead 25.21994. Displayed values 70.0 -> 70.4 and 25.0 -> 25.2. Median-reference baseline: exact and within-1% 63.9 -> 64.4, bounded 67.1 -> 67.6." + }, + { + "claim": "Paper and qmd numbers a release would change", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "From executing all qmd cells and inline expressions both ways (out/qmd_diff.txt) and the PaperResults accessor diff (out/paper_diff.log, 59 of 184 accessors differ). paper.txt line numbers:\n- L67 abstract: GPT-6 Sol 95.0 -> 95.6; GPT-5.4 nano 65.3 -> 65.8; Opus 4.8 76.2 -> 76.7; Opus 4.7 81.0 -> 81.5; always-zero 70.0 -> 70.4; margin 25.0 -> 25.2; audit rows 7,860 -> 7,722; exact misses 7,856 -> 7,718 (both instances); unlisted-input exclusions 28 -> 31 (the engine-defect 28 is unchanged); 86% zero share unchanged (85.68% -> 85.82%).\n- L145: 70.0 -> 70.4 (twice); 25.0 -> 25.2.\n- L239 tbl-snapshot: export SHA prefix 1e029aaa87d1 changes; the new value is not computable before the release payload is built.\n- L339-969 serving table Parsed column: 1,928/1,928 -> 1,925/1,925 for 42 models; GLM-5.2 1,795/1,928 -> 1,792/1,925; GLM-5.3 1,857 -> 1,854/1,925; Kimi K2.6 1,538/1,928 -> 1,538/1,925; Kimi K3 1,870 -> 1,867/1,925.\n- L1035, L1057, L1059, L2553: 7,860 -> 7,722 and 7,856 -> 7,718.\n- L1051: 'The 56 excluded outputs ... (52 with 1.755.4, 4 with 2.15.17)' -> 59, and 7 with 2.15.17.\n- L1065: 28 -> 31.\n- L1067: '56 outputs in 39 households' -> '59 outputs in 40 households' (scenario_114 is the only new household); '2,111 annotated rows' -> 2,249; '1,928 of its 1,984' -> 1,925.\n- tbl-deviation-audit (L1153/1167): 7860/7208/652 -> 7722/7073/649.\n- L1181: becomes 'GPT-6 Sol (95.6 exact, 95% CI 94.0\u201397.1; 96.3 within-1%), Claude Opus 5.5 (94.3, CI 92.3\u201396.0; 95.2), GPT-5.6 Sol (94.2, CI 91.9\u201396.1; 94.7)'.\n- tbl-us-top (L1191-1267): rows 4/5 become Claude Sonnet 5.5 92.6 (CI 90.3\u201394.8, rank 3\u20138, within-1% 93.5) and then GPT-6 Luna 92.6 (CI 90.5\u201394.6, rank 3\u20139, within-1% 94.1). Within-10% and bounded columns also shift.\n- L1285: '8 of the other 45 models' overlap the leader's CI -> 6.\n- L1291: 95.0 -> 95.6.\n- tbl-us-cost-latency (L1305-1665): every exact value shifts by 0.4-0.6 (Kimi K3 90.4 -> 91.0, DeepSeek V4 Pro 79.8 -> 80.3, Opus 4.7 81.0 -> 81.5, Opus 4.8 76.2 -> 76.7, nano 65.3 -> 65.8), and Luna and Sonnet swap order.\n- L1677/1679 and tbl-baselines L1695-1709: 70.0 -> 70.4 (x3), 63.9 -> 64.4, 67.1 -> 67.6.\n- tbl-sensitivity L1731-1735: (95.0)/(93.7)/(93.6) -> (95.6)/(94.3)/(94.2). Within-1%, bounded, equal and amount rows shift 0.1-0.4. The positive-only and zero-only rows are unchanged at display precision.\n- tbl-weighting-sensitivity: all three rows shift by 0.1-0.2.\n- tbl-us-hardest L1875-1881: fed tax 82.7/61.6/63.6/71.8 -> 82.9/64.0/65.7/73.1.\n- tbl-us-positive L1953-1955: fed tax 72.7/43.1 -> 74.0/43.6 (zero cases 93.4 unchanged).\n- L2035: DeepSeek V4 Pro 79.8 -> 80.3. L2039: Kimi K3 90.4 -> 91.0 ('trails 8 closed models' and the 128-day lag unchanged).\n- L2533, L2609, L2615: 652 -> 649; 88,688 -> 88,550 canonical rows; 712 -> 709 contract violations; Kimi K2.6 (390) -> (387); 0.7% unchanged.\n- Unchanged: engine-defect 28/20 households/11 root causes, 4 exact hits, 2,107 unannotated rows, 0.7%, 86%." + }, + { + "claim": "Docs/app/README numbers a release would change", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Hard-coded numbers that would change:\n- docs/benchmark_card.md:73 ('The 56 excluded outputs ... 52 ... 4 with 2.15.17' -> 59; 52 and 7); :105-109 (7,860 -> 7,722; 2,111 -> 2,249; 56 -> 59; 7,856 -> 7,718; 'four exact hits' and 2,107 unchanged); :144 ('Fifty-six outputs in 39 households' -> 'Fifty-nine ... 40'); :156 ('Twenty-eight depend on an input' -> 'Thirty-one', and the list of example inputs should name state income tax withheld or paid); :173 (1,928 -> 1,925 of 1,984); :175 ('except the 55 answers that never parsed' -> 58, if the three new outputs' annotations are relabelled).\n- docs/paper.md:70-71 (7,860 -> 7,722; 7,856 of 7,856 -> 7,718 of 7,718) and :77 (56 -> 59; 1,928 -> 1,925).\n- app/src/data.versions.json:9 description ('56 excluded outputs ... 4 from 2.15.17' -> 59 / 7).\n- app/src/lib/referenceEngine.ts:46 has a doc comment with the same sentence; the function itself computes it from the payload.\n- README.md and RESULTS.md contain none of these numbers.\n- app/src/paperSnapshot.json pdfVersion and webVersion change on re-render.\n\nApp notes (app/src/notes/*.json) are all pinned to superseded releases. tests/test_notes.py:76-93 says they keep their facts, so the 2026-09-29 'Sonnet 5.5 debuts fifth' note (solExact 95.0, sonnetRank 5, scoredOutputs 1928) should not be edited. docs/adds0928 and docs/gpt61sol are historical work briefs." + }, + { + "claim": "Release would need developer adjudications for the 3 outputs (not in the proposal)", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:315-328 (reference_exclusions_block) raises SystemExit when exclusion_keys(reference_exclusions.json) != excluded_case_keys(us_adjudications.json). annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json has 56 excluded_from_scoring entries; tests/test_adjudications.py:221-231 pins 69 entries (28 engine-defect / 28 prompt_ambiguity / 13 llm_error) and 56 excluded, and :298 pins manifest outputs == 56. The proposal (proposed_exclusions.json, propose_exclusions.py) adds no adjudication entries." + }, + { + "claim": "Annotation rows on the 3 new exclusions are llm_error, which breaks a test and a paper sentence unless relabelled", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "In annotations/.../us_audit_row_annotations.csv the 138 rows on the 3 outputs are 135 llm_error and 3 parse_contract_failure (kimi-k2.6). tests/test_paper_results.py:395-402 asserts every excluded-output annotation row is prompt_ambiguity, reference_engine_defect, reference_later_law or parse_contract_failure, so it would fail. Without relabelling, the paper line (qmd ~1083, rendered L1067) would read 'of the 2,249 annotated rows ... 2,056 carry one of these classes ... and the rest are answers that never parsed', which is false: the remaining 193 are 58 never-parsed rows plus 135 llm_error. The published 56 exclusions follow the relabel convention (all 820 prompt_ambiguity rows). With relabelling (deduced, not run): prompt_ambiguity_row_count 820 -> 955, excluded_descriptive_row_count 2,056 -> 2,191, never-parsed 55 -> 58." + }, + { + "claim": "Pinned tests a release must update", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "Computed new values for each pinned test:\n- tests/test_paper_results.py:70-81 (kimi-k2.6 390 -> 387; 652 -> 649); :86-93 (7,860 -> 7,722; 7,856 -> 7,718); :110 (712 -> 709); :327-330 (56 -> 59; '39 households' -> '40 households'; unlisted 28 -> 31); :358 (1,928 -> 1,925); :361 (2111 -> 2249); :363 (820 -> 955 after relabel); :382 (n == 1928 -> 1925); :410-414 (by engine {'1.755.4': 52, '2.15.17': 4} -> 7; 4 -> 7; 56 -> 59).\n- tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py:650-661 (annotated 7,860 -> 7,722; exact_misses 7,856 -> 7,718; below_full_bounded_score 9,967 -> 9,829, computed; llm_error 7,208 -> 7,073; parse 652 -> 649).\n- tests/test_reference_exclusions.py:156 (56 -> 59).\n- tests/test_reference_upgrade.py:360 (1928 -> 1925).\n- tests/test_adjudications.py:221-231 and :298.\n- tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py:56 pins the driver's BASE constants of the old release and may be historical." + }, + { + "claim": "Model answers on the 3 outputs diverge across readings (supports symmetric exclusion)", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "No model is within $1 of any frozen reference. scenario_022: inkling and grok-4.7 answered 12192.0, within $1 of the zero-withholding reading (12192.29). scenario_081: gpt-5.6-sol 26992.59, claude-opus-5.5 26992.66, gpt-6-astra 26993.29 and gpt-6.1-sol 26993.29 fall within $1 of the corrected-MA-liability value in the proposal note ($26,992.64), but not of the recorded alternative_value 26991.31. scenario_114: no model is within $1 of any reading. 13 models were within 1% of the frozen 081 value. Exclusion therefore removes no model's exact hit, and it does remove 13 within-1% hits on 081." + } + ], + "corrections_required": [ + "Before a release, add 3 developer adjudications (excluded_from_scoring=true, adjudicated_failure_source=prompt_ambiguity) for scenario_022, scenario_081 and scenario_114 federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits to annotations/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace/us_adjudications.json. Without them scripts/freeze_snapshot.py:323 stops the freeze.", + "Relabel the 135 parsed annotation rows (us_audit_row_annotations.csv and the case notes) on those 3 outputs from llm_error to prompt_ambiguity. Without this, tests/test_paper_results.py:395-402 fails and the paper sentence 'the rest are answers that never parsed' becomes false (193 remaining, not 58).", + "The leaderboard-impact summary should also report within-1% rank swaps (gpt-6.1-sol/grok-4.7 at #9/#10, glm-5.3/gemini-3.5-flash-lite at #26/#27, minimax-m3/claude-opus-4.8 at #39/#40) alongside the exact and bounded-score swaps already listed. 'Only headline rank change' is accurate for exact rank only.", + "Update the hard-coded counts in docs/benchmark_card.md:73,105-109,144,156,173,175, docs/paper.md:70-71,77 and app/src/data.versions.json:9 to the new values (59 excluded, 7 on 2.15.17, 40 households, 31 unlisted, 1,925 scored, 7,722 audited, 7,718 misses, 2,249 annotated rows on excluded outputs, 58 never parsed). Then update the pinned tests listed in the findings." + ], + "follow_ups": [ + "After the adjudications are recorded, recompute the adjudication-derived paper numbers: tbl-reference-review, audit_flagged_count('unlisted_input'), audit_adjudicated_case_phrase, prompt_ambiguity_row_count (expected 955), and the judge or developer case counts. Those were not computed here because they depend on how the release records the 3 cases.", + "Decide whether the SALT-withholding sweep joins reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/rerun_sweeps.json, which feeds r.rerun_sweep_* counts such as 'four of the September 22 ... sweeps' at paper.txt L2559. Not computed.", + "Regenerate the manifest pins: data.json.gz sha256 and the tbl-snapshot prefix, the reference_exclusions block (outputs 59, by_unlisted_input with the new key = 3, scored_outputs_per_model 1925), us_impact_summary_by_model.csv, the analysis/*.csv hashes, app/src/data.artifact.json and the release asset. These values change but cannot be computed until the release payload, including the annotation relabels, is built.", + "Find which two models stop overlapping the leader's exact CI (8 -> 6) if the prose needs to name them. Not identified here.", + "This changes published scores and the #4/#5 order, so it is Max's call via cos decision; the proposed_exclusions.json status already says so." + ], + "artifacts": [ + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/impact/leaderboard_impact_copy.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/impact/out/leaderboard_impact_models.csv", + 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the same answer. My harness (scratch harness.py) runs policyengine-us 2.15.17 plus latest_final on Scenario.to_pe_household. Its baseline matches all 1,928 scored references with 0 mismatches. Its liability fixed point equals the main sweep's withheld amounts exactly (max difference 0.0). The liability and zero readings each move exactly the same 5 federal outputs by the same amounts, and nothing else moves by any amount (tested at a 1e-6 threshold). Within the scope I was asked to check, the sweep missed three things. (1) A second engine estimate of an unlisted input sits in itemized deductions: a modeled Medicare Part B premium of $202.90 a month ($2,434.80 a year) for every Medicare-eligible person (30 households). For scenario_114 it moves a scored output the proposal leaves out: VA state income tax goes from 3,514.15 to 3,654.15 (+140.00). It also moves 114's federal output by +535.66 and its proposed alternative value. (2) The 20%-of-state local sales tax proxy (local_sales_tax.py:25-30, \"This is not an IRS value\") moves no reference on its own. It is, however, built into the zero-reading figures quoted in the proposed notes for 022 and 114, and into an existing record's alternative value (121 federal). (3) Under the liability reading, scenario_078's federal output depends on the Maryland county, which the prompt never states: 24,705.95 to 25,068.44 across 24 counties. The README and the proposed note give only the Allegany default. Consumers that bypass the tax-unit withholding variable change nothing: zeroing each state's own *_withheld_income_tax component instead of the aggregate gives identical values for all 1,984 outputs. No household is in NYC or has another local income tax. The NYC entry in the state output aggregate is a latent definition gap only. Excluding 114 state as well raises every model's weighted exact rate by another 0.054 to 0.078 pp and changes no rank. That comes from the repo analyze CLI run on scratch copies, with the published baseline reproduced.", + "findings": [ + { + "claim": "Main sweep: baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references; only five outputs move under liability/net/zero, all federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits; no other output changes by even a cent.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "My own harness (scratch harness.py) gave 1,984 outputs with 0 scored mismatches. My liab and wh0 variants move exactly 022, 078, 081, 114 and 120 federal, with identical values: 11895.23/12192.29, 24799.16/27290.70, 26991.31/28763.81, 11137.31/11758.09 and 40438.95/43619.93. The liability withheld amounts match sweep_salt_withholding_households.json with max difference 0.0. In the main CSV, |delta| > 1e-6 under each reading covers exactly those 5 rows. Every liability and net fixed point converged in 1 iteration, which matches the README." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 1: local_sales_tax (20% of the state table amount) is an engine estimate of an unlisted input. With local_sales_tax = 0, does any scored output move?", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "local_sales_tax.py:24-30 returns has_local_sales_tax * state_sales_tax * 0.2. Its comment says the worksheet needs the Optional Local Sales Tax Tables or locality rates, which are 'not modeled', and that the approximation 'is not an IRS value'. The ten no-local jurisdictions get 0 (no_local_sales_tax_states.yaml). Locality is not a benchmark input: household inputs carry only state_code, and county is excluded. The proxy is nonzero in 84 of the 100 households. With lst0 alone, 0 of 1,984 outputs change by any amount, so nothing moves by more than $1 and nothing moves by less. Among the 9 itemizers, the sales branch wins only for 016 FL (local $119.20), 088 TX ($107.00) and 121 SC ($96.80). 016 and 088 have federal taxable income 0. For 121, SC's sc_state_tax_addback adds back the same SALT amount, which offsets the change." + }, + { + "claim": "The proposed notes' zero-reading values and the existing 121 federal alternative value do not depend on the local sales proxy.", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "The 022 note says 'SALT takes the general sales tax ($1,155.60) and the output is $12,192.29'. The $1,155.60 is $963.00 state plus $192.60 local proxy. With withholding and local sales tax both 0 (the literal reading), the output is 12234.66 (+42.37). The 114 note quotes $692.40 = 577.00 + 115.40 proxy, output $11,758.09. The literal value is 11783.48 (+25.39). 081 is unaffected because MA has no local sales tax. Existing record 121 federal (r24): r24 on 2.15.17 reproduces the recorded alternative 875.34 exactly, and with local_sales_tax = 0 it becomes 886.32 (+10.98; the local proxy there is $109.80). 121 state (212.23) does not move." + }, + { + "claim": "Other engine estimates of unlisted inputs feeding itemized deductions (NEW): the modeled Medicare Part B premium.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "medical_expense_health_insurance_premiums.py: where(direct != 0, direct, non_medicare + medicare_part_b_premium * medicare_enrolled). medicare_enrolled adds takes_up_medicare_if_eligible, whose default_value is True. medicare_enrolled is in policybench EXCLUDED_INPUT_VARIABLES. The 2026 base_premium is 202.9 a month, so $2,434.80 a year is imputed for 30 households. The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment or Part B premium; for other households it labels premiums 'excluding Medicare Part B'. The rules say 'Do not infer unlisted ... expenses ... or health coverage' and treat unlisted numbers as 0. With partb0 (person medicare_part_b_premium = 0), exactly 2 outputs move: 114 federal 10729.61 -> 11265.27 (+535.66, 22% of 2,434.80) and 114 VA state 3514.15 -> 3654.15 (+140.00, 5.75%). Both are scored, and 114 state is NOT in the proposal. The published reference explanation for 114 cites 'medical expenses of $4,441.86' (10,000 + 2,434.80 - 7.5% x 106,572.56), with no Part B stated. GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol answered 114 state within $1 of 3654.15; no model is exact on 3514.15. SNAP is not affected: Part B changes the excess medical deduction and net income for 013, 021, 071, 098, 104 and 115, but none of their SNAP outputs moves, because they are ineligible or at the minimum benefit (snapcheck.py)." + }, + { + "claim": "The proposed scenario_114 federal alternative_value (11,137.31) captures the unlisted-input dependence.", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "11,137.31 still includes the imputed Part B premium. Liability reading without Part B: 11642.16. Literal reading (withholding 0, local sales 0, Part B 0): 11969.80. At that value federal itemized deductions fall to about 17,677, below the 18,150 standard deduction, so the household stops itemizing. GPT-5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 are within $1 of 11969.80. Under that same reading, VA follows the federal choice (va_deductions.py:19 reads tax_unit_itemizes) and 114 state becomes 4127.67." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 2: consumers of state withholding that bypass the tax-unit state_withheld_income_tax.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "From grep of 2.15.17, only mt_federal_income_tax_deduction_for_federal_itemization.py:23 reads a per-state component directly (mt_withheld_income_tax); MT has one household, 100 (AGI 1,875, standard deduction). Several consumers read the tax-unit aggregate, which the main override reaches: spm_unit_paycheck_withholdings (feeds only CA Marin and LA general relief), ca_scc GA earned income deductions, the ca/riv general relief and il/dhs/aabd sources yaml, co_state_addback (CO 043), mo_net_state_income_taxes (MO 021, 093) and az_itemized_deductions (salt_deduction). Several more read state_and_local_sales_or_income_tax: sc_state_tax_addback (SC 121), va_itemized_deductions (VA), id_salt_deduction (ID), and nm/hi/ut, which have no households in the sample. ny_salt_deduction and mt_salt_deduction read only real_estate_taxes. CA general assistance and relief and IL AABD are not scored programs. Empirical test: the wh0_comp variant zeroes each state's own *_withheld_income_tax at its entity and lets the aggregate recompute. It gives 0 output differences from wh0 across all 1,984 outputs, so no bypass consumer has any effect in these 100 households." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 3: households with NYC or other local income tax; NYC output-definition gap analogous to Maryland's.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "No county is passed in, so county_str falls back to the first county in each state: ALBANY_COUNTY_NY for all 5 NY households, ADAMS_COUNTY_PA, ADAIR_COUNTY_MO, ALLEGANY_COUNTY_MD. in_nyc is False, nyc_income_tax is 0, and all 100 local_income_tax references are 0. There are no DE households, so Wilmington does not arise. The gap exists but has no effect in this run: state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits.yaml still lists nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits, and latest_md_local_output_scope removes only the MD entry. An NYC household would therefore carry NYC tax in the state output, against the spec's 'excluding local income ... taxes', and count it twice with the local_income_tax output (local_income_tax.py adds nyc_income_tax). local_income_tax.py also adds de_wilmington_earned_income_tax, which the spec text (4 cities) does not name. in_county_tax is computed but nothing reads it, so Indiana county tax is in neither the state output nor SALT; both IN households (015, 067) are non-itemizers." + }, + { + "claim": "README: 'No household has county or NYC tax.'", + "status": "contradicted", + "evidence": "sweep_salt_withholding_households.json baseline: md_local_income_tax_before_refundable_credits = 834.27 (scenario_068) and 4,358.51 (scenario_078), at the Allegany 3.03% default for an unlisted county. The liability reading adds both. The NYC half of the statement holds." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 4: scenario_078 federal record. Frozen 24,164.46 and alternative 23,772.80 were computed with the withholding proxy; its note says the cap binds at every 2026 county rate.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "Frozen side: proxy 24164.46 at every county (24 counties, invariant). Liability: 24799.16 at Allegany, but 24705.95 (Dorchester) to 25068.44 (Worcester) across counties. Zero: 27290.70. Alternative side (refund out, latest_alt_salt_refund_no_prior_benefit): proxy 23772.80 (reproduced). Refund out plus liability: 24407.71 at Allegany, 24314.51 to 24676.97 across counties. Refund out plus zero: 26907.92. Under the liability reading SALT is 36,633 to 38,144, below the 40,400 cap at every county. The README already flags the cap sentence. Neither the README nor the proposed note_to_append ($24,799.16 only) says that the liability value depends on the unlisted county. The range matches the 09-28 md_county_tax_8888 review's 'liability reading (24,705.95 to 25,068.44)'." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 4: scenario_120 federal record (r02). Frozen 40,021.82 and alternative 40,028.32 date from 1.755.4.", + "status": "new_issue", + "evidence": "On 2.15.17 the engine gives 40416.67 and the r02 alternative (r02_ira_219g_v2 on latest_final) 40423.18; both include the #9422 SALT refund (+394.86). Under the withholding readings, the r02 alternative goes to 40445.46 with liability (+22.29) and 43629.21 with zero (+3206.03); the engine value goes to 40438.95 and 43619.93. The record note mentions only r25, not withholding. 120 state (11,917.18 / 11,919.06) does not move under any reading. A minor second unlisted input: mortgage origination year. Balances are 794,798 + 205,202 and person-level interest 3,744. The default year 0 gets the post-TCJA $750k cap (mortgage_interest_structure.py:4-13), so the interest deduction is 2,808. With the first mortgage dated 2015 it is 2,975.72 and federal tax is 40376.41 (-40.26). Treating 'grandfathered' as an unlisted status that defaults to false is consistent with the prompt rule." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 4: other existing records move under the withholding, local-sales or Part B readings.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "No other record's value moves (analyze4.py over item4.json). For each record I ran the reference system and the record's alternative module on 2.15.17 under base, liability, wh0, lst0, partb0, liab+partb0, wh0+lst0 and all0. Records checked: 002/107 (r24), 003/064 (r01), 005 fed and state (r02; r02+r11), 007/053 (r07), 020 (r25), 022 state (r11), 033/117 (refund), 039 (r03), 042 (r06+r32), 049/052/082/099 (r02; 099 state r02+r11), 062 (r16), 081 state (r22), 091 (r32), 100/119 (r08) and 110 (r02+r03). Every delta is 0.00. The 1.755.4-era modules loaded on 2.15.17, and most reproduced their recorded alternatives exactly: 007 651.32, 022 1968.81, 033 3788.99, 039 state 1975.80, 053 2176.06, 062 4328.39, 081 8232.90, 091 878.52, 100 822.29/164.46, 117 24391.80, 119 3366.07/1756.68, 121 875.34/212.23. 005 stays on the standard deduction with SALT above its phase-down cap under every reading. Not run: alternative modules for the non-tax records (SNAP, SSI, Medicaid and Medicare eligibility, 108 state refundable). SALT cannot reach those outputs, and their frozen values did not move under partb0." + }, + { + "claim": "Task 5: other dependencies (itemization-choice conformity, other years, dependents).", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "Across all variants, federal itemization flips only for 072 MI (partb0 and all0; federal tax is 0 either way, no output moves) and 114 VA (all0, where VA follows the federal choice and state becomes 4127.67). Under liability and zero alone, no household's itemization status changes. Other years (otheryears.py): 2024 adjusted_gross_income is evaluated, as 0 with no inputs, for the 33 households with Medicare-eligible members. This is medicare_irmaa_magi_two_years_prior, so no IRMAA is applied; it matters only through Part B, and only for 114 (2026 AGI 106,573, below the 109,001 single IRMAA bracket). Lagged FPG parameters are evaluated for OH 025/048/107/110 (tax_unit_fpg 2024) and AL 092/115 (spm_unit_fpg 2025); these are parameter look-ups, not unlisted facts, though I did not read those consumers. I found no dependent-related path into SALT." + }, + { + "claim": "Leaderboard impact of also excluding 114 state.", + "status": "verified", + "evidence": "lb.py stages scratch copies and runs `python -m policybench.cli analyze` with cwd set to scratch. The unchanged copy reproduces the published programStats. Adding the three proposals reproduces the main session's figures (GPT-6 Sol 95.003 -> 95.615; n 1925). Adding a draft 114-state record as well: n = 1924, every model rises another 0.054 to 0.078 pp, and no exact rank changes relative to the three-record proposal (lb_compare.csv)." + } + ], + "corrections_required": [ + "Add an unlisted-input exclusion for scenario_114 state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits (VA). The reference 3,514.15 includes the engine's imputed Medicare Part B premium of $2,434.80 in the medical deduction that VA takes from federal itemized deductions. Without it the value is 3,654.15, which GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol hit within $1. Note also that under the all-zero reading the value is 4,127.67, because the household switches to the standard deduction and VA follows the federal itemization choice.", + "For the scenario_114 federal proposal, add the Medicare Part B premium (enrollment and premium paid) as a second unlisted input. State that alternative_value 11,137.31 still includes Part B. Give 11,642.16 (liability reading, no Part B) and 11,969.80 (withholding, local sales tax and Part B all 0; standard deduction; GPT-5.6 Sol and Kimi K3 are within $1).", + "Fix the zero-reading figures in the proposed notes. 022's '$1,155.60 ... $12,192.29' and 114's '$692.40 ... $11,758.09' include the engine's 20% local sales tax proxy ($192.60 and $115.40), an estimate of an unlisted locality. With no local sales tax the values are 12,234.66 and 11,783.48. Either say so or quote both.", + "In scenario_078's note_to_append, say that the liability-reading value depends on the county: 24,705.95 to 25,068.44 across the 24 MD counties, with $24,799.16 as the Allegany default. With the refund also left out it is 24,314.51 to 24,676.97 (Allegany 24,407.71), and the zero reading with the refund out is 26,907.92.", + "Correct the README sentence 'No household has county or NYC tax'. scenario_068 has $834.27 and scenario_078 has $4,358.51 of engine Maryland county tax at the default Allegany rate for an unlisted county, and the liability reading adds both. Only the NYC half is true.", + "For scenario_120's federal note_to_append, give the r02 alternative on 2.15.17 under the withholding readings as well: 40,423.18 with the proxy, 40,445.46 with liability, 43,629.21 with zero. The recorded 40,028.32 is a 1.755.4 value without the SALT refund.", + "Optional: the 022 note says only that the alternative is 'higher' under the r11-corrected CA liability; the value is 12,013.38 (CA liability 1,968.81)." + ], + "follow_ups": [ + "Run a full Medicare Part B audit (medicare_part_b_premium imputed for 30 households via takes_up_medicare_if_eligible = True, plus the IRMAA lookback to 2024 MAGI, which has no inputs and evaluates to 0). Draft the 114-state record and append Part B to the 114-federal record. Re-check the SNAP, OH and MT medical consumers if the scenario set changes. Severity high: one scored output is affected now.", + "Extend latest_md_local_output_scope, or add an assertion, so that nyc_income_tax_before_refundable_credits is also kept out of the state output, and decide whether de_wilmington_earned_income_tax belongs in local_income_tax given the spec's 4-city list. Severity low: no effect on this run; it protects any future set with county or NYC inputs.", + "Add a standing completeness sweep to the reference build: zero each known engine estimate of an unlisted input (state_withheld_income_tax and its components, local_sales_tax, medicare_part_b_premium, the default county for MD, mortgage origination year) and report every output that moves. Severity medium: it prevents the next miss of this kind.", + "Prompt-clarity check, out of SALT scope: scenario_120's prompt lists person home mortgage interest ($3,744) and tax-unit first and second mortgage interest (2,975.72 + 768.28) as separate lines, which a reader could double count. The engine uses only the person-level figure (mortgage_interest_structure.py home_mortgage_interest_tax_unit). Severity low." + ], + "artifacts": [ + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/completeness/harness.py", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/completeness/main.json", + "/private/tmp/claude-501/-Users-maxghenis-Library-Application-Support-Claude-scratch-workspaces-ee3763f4-e7ea-4177-bcaf-1362266768c1-4457aa9d-2dc0-4bcf-a128-e50adae6be25-scratch-2026-09-22-c3da5e/41f8ee82-e211-4e72-8911-9c5d2d1b04d4/scratchpad/verify/completeness/main_table.csv", + 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a/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding.csv b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fbdc92b1 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05/verification/sweep_salt_withholding.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1985 @@ +scenario_id,state,variable,reference,baseline,baseline_matches_reference,excluded,excluded_reason,liability,liability_delta,liability_moved,net,net_delta,net_moved,zero,zero_delta,zero_moved +scenario_000,TX,federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,2906.45361328125,2906.45361328125,True,False,,2906.45361328125,0.0,False,2906.45361328125,0.0,False,2906.45361328125,0.0,False +scenario_000,TX,federal_refundable_credits,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False +scenario_000,TX,free_school_meals_eligible,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False +scenario_000,TX,local_income_tax,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False,0.0,0.0,False 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+ "snap": 0.0, + "ssi": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 3070.061279296875, + "state_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "tanf": 0.0 + }, + "zero": { + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 5200.240234375, + "federal_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "free_school_meals_eligible": 0.0, + "local_income_tax": 0.0, + "payroll_tax": 11194.0, + "head_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_early_head_start_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_head_start_eligible": 0.0, + "head_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "head_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "head_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "reduced_price_school_meals_eligible": 0.0, + "self_employment_tax": 0.0, + "snap": 0.0, + "ssi": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 3070.061279296875, + "state_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "tanf": 0.0 + } + }, + "no_part_b": { + "reference": { + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 5200.240234375, + "federal_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "free_school_meals_eligible": 0.0, + "local_income_tax": 0.0, + "payroll_tax": 11194.0, + "head_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_chip_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_early_head_start_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_head_start_eligible": 0.0, + "head_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_medicaid_eligible": 0.0, + "head_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_medicare_eligible": 0.0, + "head_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "spouse_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "child1_wic_eligible": 0.0, + "reduced_price_school_meals_eligible": 0.0, + "self_employment_tax": 0.0, + "snap": 0.0, + "ssi": 0.0, + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 3070.061279296875, + "state_refundable_credits": 0.0, + "tanf": 0.0 + } + } + } + ] +} diff --git a/scripts/freeze_adds0928.py b/scripts/freeze_adds0928.py index ac60b024..3a5828ab 100644 --- a/scripts/freeze_adds0928.py +++ b/scripts/freeze_adds0928.py @@ -265,9 +265,9 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None: manifest_path.write_text(json.dumps(manifest, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n") # Read-only input paths are all in this checkout. Override defaults that - # captured the old audit directory when freeze_snapshot was imported. + # captured the old audit directory when freeze_snapshot was imported. The + # freezer dates the response window from the staged predictions. freezer.SNAPSHOT_DATE = date - freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE = f"2026-06-12 to {date}" freezer.SOURCE_RUN = source_run freezer.SOURCE_US = source_us freezer.SOURCE_ANNOTATIONS = staged_annotations diff --git a/scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py b/scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py index c2297ea4..f4b27540 100644 --- a/scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py +++ b/scripts/freeze_gpt61sol.py @@ -555,6 +555,14 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None: ) evidence_paths[model] = str(state_path) del staged_rows + # The freezer dates the response window from these rows: from the run + # label's start to the last answer, not to the release date. Refuse here, + # before the pointer is written, rather than partway through the freeze. + window = freezer.model_response_window( + source_us / "predictions.csv", + freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_START, + freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE, + ) adjudications = freezer.load_adjudications(staged_annotations / ADJUDICATIONS) from policybench.adjudications import verify_adjudications_applied @@ -593,14 +601,13 @@ def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None: print( f"Validated local release inputs: {args.tag}, {BOARD_MODELS} models, " f"{payload_hash}; references unchanged; {added} adjudications added; " - f"{len(amendments)} wording amendments" + f"{len(amendments)} wording amendments; model responses {window}" ) return # Read-only input paths are all in this checkout. Override defaults that # captured the old audit directory when freeze_snapshot was imported. freezer.SNAPSHOT_DATE = date - freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE = f"2026-06-12 to {date}" freezer.SOURCE_RUN = source_run freezer.SOURCE_US = source_us freezer.SOURCE_ANNOTATIONS = staged_annotations diff --git a/scripts/freeze_snapshot.py b/scripts/freeze_snapshot.py index ccea1910..ab5d989e 100644 --- a/scripts/freeze_snapshot.py +++ b/scripts/freeze_snapshot.py @@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ import re import shutil import subprocess -from datetime import date +from datetime import date, timedelta from pathlib import Path import numpy as np @@ -85,7 +85,14 @@ SNAPSHOT_DIR_NAME = "20260501" # Stable id; reused across refreshes. SNAPSHOT_DATE = "2026-09-22" -MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE = "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-22" +# The response window runs from the first wave to the last answer. The first +# waves' rows carry no request timestamps, so the start is the run label's date +# (us_full_run_20260612); the end is derived from the predictions +# (model_response_window), never taken from the release date. +MODEL_RESPONSE_START = "2026-06-12" +# A driver may name the window it expects; the freeze refuses unless the +# predictions give the same one. None names no window. +MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE: str | None = None RUN_LABEL = "us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" # Completed runs live under the main clone's gitignored results/local. A @@ -443,6 +450,71 @@ def developer_adjudications_block(cases_dir: Path = AUDIT_CASES_DIR) -> dict: } +REQUEST_TIMESTAMP_COLUMNS = ("request_started_at", "request_completed_at") + + +def _utc_date(seconds: float) -> date: + """The UTC calendar date of a Unix time, on any machine's clock. + + Floor division, not ``datetime.fromtimestamp``, whose microsecond rounding + can carry a time just before midnight into the next day. + """ + return date(1970, 1, 1) + timedelta(days=int(seconds // 86_400)) + + +def model_response_window( + predictions: Path, start: str, expected: str | None = None +) -> str: + """The ``' to '`` window the predictions' answers fall in. + + ``end`` is the UTC date of the latest ``request_completed_at`` (Unix + seconds) the predictions record, whatever the release is called and + wherever it is frozen. Rows without timestamps (the first waves, which + predate the columns, and the batch adapter's) cannot move it. ``start`` is + configured, since those first waves recorded no time. Every timestamp the + predictions do record must fall inside the window, by UTC date. Refuses + predictions that time no answer, and an ``expected`` window that differs. + """ + columns = list(REQUEST_TIMESTAMP_COLUMNS) + missing = set(columns) - set(pd.read_csv(predictions, nrows=0).columns) + if missing: + raise SystemExit( + f"{predictions} has no {', '.join(sorted(missing))} column; " + "cannot date the model response window" + ) + # round_trip keeps every recorded digit: the default parser can round a + # time just before UTC midnight up to midnight and so onto the next day. + frame = pd.read_csv( + predictions, usecols=columns, dtype="float64", float_precision="round_trip" + ) + completed = frame["request_completed_at"].dropna() + if completed.empty: + raise SystemExit( + f"{predictions} times no answer; cannot date the model response window" + ) + first, end = date.fromisoformat(start), _utc_date(completed.max()) + timed = frame.to_numpy() + earliest, latest = _utc_date(np.nanmin(timed)), _utc_date(np.nanmax(timed)) + if earliest < first: + raise SystemExit( + f"{predictions} records a request on {earliest}, before the " + f"configured model response start {start}" + ) + if latest > end: + raise SystemExit( + f"{predictions} records a request on {latest}, after its last " + f"answer ({end})" + ) + window = f"{first.isoformat()} to {end.isoformat()}" + if expected is not None and expected != window: + raise SystemExit( + f"The configured model response window ({expected}) is not the " + f"predictions' ({window}): the window ends on the last answer's " + "UTC date, not the release date" + ) + return window + + def _response_window_phrase(window: str) -> str: """'2026-06-12 to 2026-09-22' -> 'June 12 and September 22, 2026'.""" start, end = (date.fromisoformat(part.strip()) for part in window.split(" to ")) @@ -1477,6 +1549,7 @@ def build_manifest( run_files: dict[str, str], committed: dict[str, str], annotation_files: dict[str, str], + response_window: str, ) -> dict: reference_refresh = read_reference_refresh() engine_setup = read_reference_engine_setup() @@ -1532,7 +1605,7 @@ def build_manifest( "artifacts copied under " f"paper/snapshot/{SNAPSHOT_DIR_NAME}/runs/.", "Model responses were collected in waves between " - f"{_response_window_phrase(MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE)}, as models were " + f"{_response_window_phrase(response_window)}, as models were " "added to the board; each model's full 100-household run is a " "single consistent wave. PolicyBench computes each scored " "reference output with policyengine_us.Simulation from " @@ -1567,7 +1640,7 @@ def build_manifest( "run metadata (scenarios.csv.meta.json) records the " "populace_us_2024 build actually loaded.", "Model APIs and upstream model aliases may change after the " - f"recorded {MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE} response window, so exact " + f"recorded {response_window} response window, so exact " "reruns can diverge even with the committed household inputs, " "reference outputs, parsed dashboard export, and analysis " "summaries.", @@ -1583,7 +1656,7 @@ def build_manifest( "subsets per model as recorded in model_serving_config.json." ), }, - "model_response_date": MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE, + "model_response_date": response_window, "reference_output_refresh": reference_refresh, "household_dataset": household_dataset, "files": [ @@ -1764,13 +1837,17 @@ def main() -> None: raise SystemExit(f"Published dashboard not found: {PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_SOURCE}") if not REFERENCE_META_SOURCE.exists(): raise SystemExit(f"Reference metadata not found: {REFERENCE_META_SOURCE}") + # Dated from the rows freeze_run gzips into the snapshot, before any write. + response_window = model_response_window( + SOURCE_US / "predictions.csv", MODEL_RESPONSE_START, MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE + ) remove_stale_artifacts() run_files = freeze_run() committed = freeze_committed_artifacts() annotation_files = freeze_annotations() - manifest = build_manifest(run_files, committed, annotation_files) + manifest = build_manifest(run_files, committed, annotation_files, response_window) # Pin the rendered-paper block to the served files. Falls back to the block # already recorded in the manifest when the paper has not been rendered yet. try: diff --git a/scripts/release_20261006.py b/scripts/release_20261006.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ac3db214 --- /dev/null +++ b/scripts/release_20261006.py @@ -0,0 +1,1207 @@ +"""Build release dashboard-data-20261006 from release dashboard-data-20260930. + +The release applies Max's rulings of 2026-10-05 (docs/release_20261006/spec.json) +to release 20260930. No model and no answer changes, and no reference value +changes: + +- eight outputs leave scoring for every model, as + ``reference_depends_on_unlisted_input`` records from the three 2026-10-05 + audits (state income tax withheld in SALT, the Medicare Part B premium, and + the optional employer pass-through of state paid-leave premiums), with eight + developer adjudications; +- four existing records gain the text the audits wrote for them; +- the audit text of the excluded and Louisiana outputs is reworded + (docs/release_20261006/annotation_rewrites.json), and scenario_031's + Medicaid text carries PolicyEngine/policybench#197's rewrites, which are + already committed; +- the model response window ends on the last answer's UTC date + (scripts/freeze_snapshot.py, model_response_window). + +Three steps. Each reads the release-20260930 baseline from git at the base +commit, never from the working tree, and refuses anything outside the release: + + prepare stage release 20260930's bundle and audit tree, install the records, + adjudications and rewrites, and record the judge evidence; + export build the payload twice (the bytes must agree), check every change + against the base, and write the receipt; + freeze freeze the snapshot through scripts/freeze_snapshot.py, then check + what it wrote. + +Usage:: + + python scripts/release_20261006.py prepare --base-stage BASE --stage STAGE + python scripts/release_20261006.py export --stage STAGE + python scripts/release_20261006.py freeze --stage STAGE [--dry-run] + +``BASE`` is release 20260930's archived stage (results/local/gpt61sol-stage/ +gpt61sol-v1, or an APFS clone of it); it is only read. ``STAGE`` must be a new +directory under results/local in this checkout. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import copy +import csv +import functools +import gzip +import hashlib +import io +import json +import re +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +import tempfile +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + +RUN = "us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +SPEC_PATH = Path("docs/release_20261006/spec.json") +REWRITES_PATH = Path("docs/release_20261006/annotation_rewrites.json") +SNAPSHOT_DIR = Path("paper/snapshot/20260501") +SNAPSHOT_RUN = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "runs" / RUN +MANIFEST = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json" +SERVING = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "model_serving_config.json" +ANNOTATIONS = Path("annotations") / RUN +ADJUDICATIONS = "us_adjudications.json" +ROWS = "us_audit_row_annotations.csv" +CASES = "us_case_notes.csv" +EXPLANATIONS = "us_case_reference_explanations.csv" +AMENDMENTS = "us_wording-amendments.json" +ANNOTATION_CSVS = (ROWS, CASES, EXPLANATIONS) +EXCLUSIONS = "reference_exclusions.json" +REFERENCE_FILES = ( + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +EVIDENCE = Path("reference_audit/2026-09-28/verification/judge_verdicts.json") +RULE_031 = Path("reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/rewrites.json") +POINTER = Path("app/src/data.artifact.json") +VERSIONS = Path("app/src/data.versions.json") +STAGE_ROOT = Path("results/local") +BOARD_MODELS = 46 +TOTAL_OUTPUTS = 1984 +# Fable 5 ran through the Anthropic batch adapter, whose rows carry no cost, +# token or latency fields; release 20260930 carried its released values, and +# so does this release (scripts/finish_gpt61sol.py, CARRIED_USAGE). +CARRIED_USAGE = { + "claude-fable-5": ("costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds") +} +# modelStats fields no exclusion can move. +STABLE_STATS = ( + "condition", + "costUsd", + "costPerHousehold", + "totalTokens", + "latencySeconds", + "accuracy", +) +# Payload sections an exclusion or a rewording can move; the others must be +# release 20260930's. +CHANGED_SECTIONS = frozenset( + { + "modelStats", + "programStats", + "heatmap", + "failureModes", + "referenceExclusions", + "scenarioPredictions", + } +) +# Fields of a scenarioPredictions cell that a new exclusion can move. +EXCLUSION_CELL_FIELDS = frozenset( + {"scored", "excludedReason", "excludedInput", "failureSource", "failureSubtype"} +) +# Fields a rewording can move. +TEXT_CELL_FIELDS = frozenset({"annotation", "caseAnnotation", "referenceExplanation"}) +# Classes the adjudications set on a newly excluded case. +CLASS_CELL_FIELDS = frozenset( + {"caseFailureSources", "caseFailureSubtypes", "failureSource", "failureSubtype"} +) +# Field order of the 2026-09-29 wave's unlisted-input adjudications. +ENTRY_FIELDS = ( + "country", + "scenario_id", + "variable", + "judge_model", + "judge_failure_source", + "judge_failure_subtype", + "adjudicated_failure_source", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype", + "adjudicated_on", + "adjudicator", + "excluded_from_scoring", + "judge_reference_suspect", + "reference_verdict", + "reference_basis", + "reasoning", + "judged_on_utc", +) +DATE_CONVENTIONS_OLD = ( + "adjudicated_on names the audit wave that made the decision (2026-09-05, " + "2026-09-22 or 2026-09-29). It carries no time of day or time zone. The " + "2026-09-05 and 2026-09-22 waves' decisions were written up to the day each " + "wave's release was committed (2026-09-05 and 2026-09-23), and the " + "2026-09-29 wave's decisions were written on 2026-09-29 UTC, after its " + "reference sweep began." +) +DATE_CONVENTIONS_NEW = ( + "adjudicated_on names the audit wave that made the decision (2026-09-05, " + "2026-09-22, 2026-09-29 or 2026-10-05). It carries no time of day or time " + "zone. The 2026-09-05, 2026-09-22 and 2026-09-29 waves' decisions were " + "written up to the day each wave's release was committed (2026-09-05, " + "2026-09-23 and 2026-09-30); the 2026-09-29 wave's reference sweep began " + "on 2026-09-29 UTC, before its decisions were written. The 2026-10-05 " + "wave's decisions follow Max's rulings of 2026-10-05 US Eastern time " + "(2026-10-06 UTC) and were written on 2026-10-06 UTC." +) + + +def require(condition: bool, message: str) -> None: + if not condition: + raise SystemExit(f"release_20261006: {message}") + + +def digest(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def sha(data: bytes) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(data).hexdigest() + + +def load_spec(root: Path = ROOT) -> dict: + return json.loads((root / SPEC_PATH).read_text()) + + +def git_blob(commit: str, path: Path, root: Path = ROOT) -> bytes: + """A file as committed at ``commit``. CI checks out full history.""" + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(root), "show", f"{commit}:{path.as_posix()}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + require( + result.returncode == 0, + f"cannot read {path} at {commit[:12]} (fetch full history): " + f"{result.stderr.decode().strip()}", + ) + return result.stdout + + +def key(entry: dict) -> tuple[str, str]: + return entry["scenario_id"], entry["variable"] + + +# --- Exclusion records --------------------------------------------------------- + + +def exclusions_text(doc: dict) -> str: + """The exclusion record as the reference builder spells it + (reference_audit/2026-09-28/scripts/build_references_latest.py).""" + return json.dumps(doc, indent=2) + "\n" + + +def proposal_records(spec: dict, root: Path = ROOT) -> list[dict]: + """The ruled records, exactly the outputs each ruling names, in + (scenario_id, variable) order.""" + records = [] + for proposal in spec["proposals"]: + found = json.loads((root / proposal["path"]).read_text())["exclusions"] + named = [tuple(output) for output in proposal["outputs"]] + chosen = [record for record in found if key(record) in set(named)] + require( + sorted(key(record) for record in chosen) == sorted(named), + f"{proposal['path']} does not hold exactly the ruled outputs {named}", + ) + records.extend(copy.deepcopy(chosen)) + keys = [key(record) for record in records] + require(len(set(keys)) == len(keys), f"two ruled records share an output: {keys}") + for record in records: + require( + record["reason_code"] == "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input" + and record["decided_on"] == spec["decided_on"] + and record["decided_by"] == "developer" + and record["engine_version"] == "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + f"{key(record)} is not a 2026-10-05 developer unlisted-input record " + "on policyengine-us 2.15.17", + ) + return sorted(records, key=key) + + +def _pointer(value, path: list): + for part in path: + value = value[part] + return value + + +def apply_record_edit(record: dict, edit: dict, root: Path = ROOT) -> dict: + """One spec edit, applied to a copy; refuses an edit that does not fit.""" + record = copy.deepcopy(record) + field = edit["field"] + text = record[field] + if "replace" in edit: + require( + text.count(edit["replace"]) == 1, + f"{key(record)} {field} does not hold the replaced text exactly once", + ) + record[field] = text.replace(edit["replace"], edit["with"]) + return record + if "append_from" in edit: + source, *path = edit["append_from"] + appended = _pointer(json.loads((root / source).read_text()), path) + target = _pointer(json.loads((root / source).read_text()), path[:-1]) + require( + (target["scenario_id"], target["variable"]) == key(record), + f"{source} {path} is written for another output than {key(record)}", + ) + appended = " " + appended + else: + appended = edit["append"] + require(not text.endswith(appended), f"{key(record)} {field} already carries it") + record[field] = text + appended + return record + + +def build_exclusions(base: dict, spec: dict, root: Path = ROOT) -> dict: + """Release 20260930's record plus the eight ruled records. + + The new records go after the earlier waves' and before the audit's trailing + scenario_023 record (tests/test_reference_upgrade.py requires that tail); the + derivation's new sentence goes before the 2026-09-29 marker, which the same + test splits on. Every other record keeps its bytes except the four edits. + """ + doc = copy.deepcopy(base) + tail = doc["exclusions"][-1] + require( + key(tail) == ("scenario_023", "head_medicaid_eligible"), + "release 20260930's record does not end with the audit's scenario_023 record", + ) + new = proposal_records(spec, root) + existing = {key(record) for record in doc["exclusions"]} + require( + not existing & {key(record) for record in new}, + "a ruled output is already excluded", + ) + records = doc["exclusions"][:-1] + new + [tail] + by_key = {key(record): index for index, record in enumerate(records)} + for edit in spec["record_edits"]: + index = by_key.get((edit["scenario_id"], edit["variable"])) + require(index is not None, f"no record for edit {edit['scenario_id']}") + records[index] = apply_record_edit(records[index], edit, root) + doc["exclusions"] = records + rule = spec["rule"] + require( + doc["rule"].count(rule["old"]) == 1, + "the record's rule is not release 20260930's", + ) + doc["rule"] = doc["rule"].replace(rule["old"], rule["new"]) + insert = spec["derivation_insert"] + require( + doc["derivation"].count(insert["before"]) == 1, + "the derivation does not hold its 2026-09-29 marker exactly once", + ) + doc["derivation"] = doc["derivation"].replace( + insert["before"], insert["text"] + insert["before"] + ) + return doc + + +# --- Adjudications and judge evidence ------------------------------------------ + + +def bound_verdict(case_dir: Path) -> tuple[dict, dict]: + """(verdict, sidecar), where the sidecar binds the verdict by sha256.""" + verdict_path, meta_path = case_dir / "verdict.json", case_dir / "verdict.meta.json" + require( + verdict_path.is_file() and meta_path.is_file(), + f"{case_dir.name} has no bound verdict in the stage's audit tree", + ) + meta = json.loads(meta_path.read_text()) + require( + meta.get("verdict_sha256") == digest(verdict_path), + f"{case_dir.name}'s sidecar does not bind its verdict", + ) + return json.loads(verdict_path.read_text()), meta + + +def case_dir_name(scenario_id: str, variable: str) -> str: + return f"us__{scenario_id}__{variable}" + + +def new_adjudications(spec: dict, exclusions: dict, cases_dir: Path) -> list[dict]: + """One developer adjudication per ruled record, keeping the judge's verdict + in the release's audit tree verbatim (freeze_snapshot.py checks it).""" + from date_adds0928_judge_verdicts import _judge + + records = {key(record): record for record in exclusions["exclusions"]} + entries = [] + for item in spec["adjudications"]: + record = records[key(item)] + verdict, meta = bound_verdict( + cases_dir / case_dir_name(item["scenario_id"], item["variable"]) + ) + entry = { + "country": "us", + "scenario_id": item["scenario_id"], + "variable": item["variable"], + "judge_model": _judge(meta), + "judge_failure_source": verdict["case_failure_source"], + "judge_failure_subtype": verdict["case_failure_subtype"], + "adjudicated_failure_source": "prompt_ambiguity", + "adjudicated_failure_subtype": item["adjudicated_failure_subtype"], + "adjudicated_on": spec["decided_on"], + "adjudicator": "developer", + "excluded_from_scoring": True, + "judge_reference_suspect": bool(verdict.get("reference_suspect")), + "reference_verdict": "unlisted_input", + "reference_basis": record["unlisted_input"], + "reasoning": item["reasoning"], + "judged_on_utc": meta["judged_at_utc"][:10], + } + require(list(entry) == list(ENTRY_FIELDS), "entry fields out of order") + entries.append(entry) + return entries + + +def build_adjudication_record(base: dict, entries: list[dict]) -> dict: + record = copy.deepcopy(base) + existing = {key(entry) for entry in record["adjudications"]} + require( + not existing & {key(entry) for entry in entries}, + "a ruled output already has an adjudication", + ) + require( + record["date_conventions"].count(DATE_CONVENTIONS_OLD) == 1, + "the record's date conventions are not release 20260930's", + ) + record["date_conventions"] = record["date_conventions"].replace( + DATE_CONVENTIONS_OLD, DATE_CONVENTIONS_NEW + ) + record["adjudications"] = record["adjudications"] + entries + return record + + +def record_text(record: dict) -> str: + """The adjudication record as the committed file spells it.""" + return json.dumps(record, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n" + + +def build_evidence( + evidence: dict, spec: dict, entries: list[dict], cases_dir: Path, root: Path = ROOT +) -> dict: + """Fill the 2026-09-29 wave's release, add the 2026-10-05 wave, and add the + judge verdict each new decision reviewed.""" + from date_adds0928_judge_verdicts import _evidence + + evidence = copy.deepcopy(evidence) + fill, new = spec["judge_evidence"]["fill_wave"], spec["judge_evidence"]["new_wave"] + waves = evidence["wave_releases"] + require( + waves.get(fill["wave"], {}).get("commit") is None + and list(waves) == ["2026-09-05", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-29"], + "the evidence's waves are not release 20260930's", + ) + waves[fill["wave"]] = { + "commit": fill["commit"], + "release": waves[fill["wave"]]["release"], + "pull_request": fill["pull_request"], + "committed_on": fill["committed_on"], + } + waves[new["wave"]] = { + "commit": None, + "release": new["release"], + "pull_request": None, + "adjudications_written_on": new["adjudications_written_on"], + } + published = json.loads(git_blob(fill["commit"], ANNOTATIONS / ADJUDICATIONS, root))[ + "adjudications" + ] + filled = 0 + for entry in published: + if entry["adjudicated_on"] != fill["wave"]: + continue + case = case_dir_name(*key(entry)) + require( + "published" not in evidence["cases"][case], + f"{case} already has published evidence", + ) + evidence["cases"][case]["published"] = { + "release": waves[fill["wave"]]["release"], + "commit": fill["commit"], + "judge_model": entry["judge_model"], + "case_failure_source": entry["judge_failure_source"], + "case_failure_subtype": entry["judge_failure_subtype"], + "judged_on_utc": entry.get("judged_on_utc"), + } + filled += 1 + require(filled > 0, f"the {fill['wave']} release published no decisions") + for entry in entries: + case = case_dir_name(*key(entry)) + require(case not in evidence["cases"], f"{case} already has evidence") + evidence["cases"][case] = { + "current": _evidence("stage", bound_verdict(cases_dir / case)) + } + return evidence + + +def evidence_text(evidence: dict) -> str: + return json.dumps(evidence, indent=2) + "\n" + + +# --- Annotation text ------------------------------------------------------------- + +REWRITE_KEYS = { + ROWS: ("scenario_id", "variable", "model"), + CASES: ("scenario_id", "variable"), + EXPLANATIONS: ("scenario_id", "variable"), +} +REWRITE_FIELDS = { + ROWS: "annotation", + CASES: "case_annotation", + EXPLANATIONS: "explanation", +} + + +def _read_csv(data: bytes) -> tuple[list[str], list[list[str]]]: + rows = list(csv.reader(io.StringIO(data.decode("utf-8"), newline=""))) + return rows[0], rows[1:] + + +def _write_csv(header: list[str], rows: list[list[str]]) -> bytes: + out = io.StringIO(newline="") + csv.writer(out, lineterminator="\n").writerows([header, *rows]) + return out.getvalue().encode("utf-8") + + +def apply_text_rewrites( + files: dict[str, bytes], rewrites: list[dict] +) -> dict[str, bytes]: + """Whole-field rewrites, as #197's apply_rewrites.py applies them: each names + one row and holds the field's whole old and new text; nothing else moves. + Refuses a missing or ambiguous row, a repeated rewrite, or a field holding + neither text; a field already holding the new text is left as it is.""" + out = dict(files) + by_file: dict[str, list[dict]] = {} + for item in rewrites: + require(item["file"] in REWRITE_KEYS, f"{item['file']} is not rewritable") + require( + item["field"] == REWRITE_FIELDS[item["file"]], + f"{item['file']}: {item['field']} is not its text field", + ) + by_file.setdefault(item["file"], []).append(item) + for name, items in by_file.items(): + header, rows = _read_csv(out[name]) + require(_write_csv(header, rows) == out[name], f"{name} does not round-trip") + columns = {column: index for index, column in enumerate(header)} + key_columns = [columns[c] for c in REWRITE_KEYS[name]] + field = columns[REWRITE_FIELDS[name]] + index: dict[tuple, list[int]] = {} + for position, row in enumerate(rows): + index.setdefault(tuple(row[c] for c in key_columns), []).append(position) + seen = set() + for item in items: + row_key = tuple(item[c] for c in REWRITE_KEYS[name]) + require(row_key not in seen, f"{name}: two rewrites of {row_key}") + seen.add(row_key) + hits = index.get(row_key, []) + require(len(hits) == 1, f"{name}: {row_key} matches {len(hits)} rows") + current = rows[hits[0]][field] + if current == item["new"]: + continue + require( + current == item["old"], + f"{name}: {row_key} holds neither the old nor the new text", + ) + rows[hits[0]][field] = item["new"] + out[name] = _write_csv(header, rows) + return out + + +def adjudicated_csvs( + files: dict[str, bytes], adjudications: list[dict] +) -> dict[str, bytes]: + """The row annotations and case notes with every adjudication applied, as + scripts/apply_adjudications.py writes them.""" + import pandas as pd + + from policybench.adjudications import ( + apply_adjudications, + unresolved_suspect_cases, + verify_adjudications_applied, + ) + + rows = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(files[ROWS])) + cases = pd.read_csv(io.BytesIO(files[CASES])) + rows, cases, _ = apply_adjudications(rows, cases, adjudications) + verify_adjudications_applied(rows, cases, adjudications) + require( + not unresolved_suspect_cases(cases, adjudications), + "a reference-suspect case has no reference verdict", + ) + out = dict(files) + out[ROWS] = rows.to_csv(index=False).encode("utf-8") + out[CASES] = cases.to_csv(index=False).encode("utf-8") + return out + + +def changed_cells(before: bytes, after: bytes, keys: tuple[str, ...]) -> dict: + """{row key: [changed columns]} between two versions of an annotation CSV + whose rows and columns must otherwise agree.""" + header_a, rows_a = _read_csv(before) + header_b, rows_b = _read_csv(after) + require(header_a == header_b, "an annotation file's columns changed") + index = [header_a.index(c) for c in keys] + require( + [tuple(r[i] for i in index) for r in rows_a] + == [tuple(r[i] for i in index) for r in rows_b], + "an annotation file's rows changed order or membership", + ) + changes = {} + for row_a, row_b in zip(rows_a, rows_b): + columns = [header_a[i] for i, (a, b) in enumerate(zip(row_a, row_b)) if a != b] + if columns: + changes[tuple(row_a[i] for i in index)] = columns + return changes + + +def verify_annotation_scope( + base: dict[str, bytes], + staged: dict[str, bytes], + new_keys: set[tuple[str, str]], + reworded: set[tuple[str, str]], +) -> dict[str, int]: + """Only the newly excluded outputs' classes and only reworded outputs' text + may differ from release 20260930's annotations.""" + counts = {} + allowed = { + ROWS: ({"failure_source", "failure_subtype"}, {"annotation"}), + CASES: ( + {"case_failure_sources", "case_failure_subtypes", "case_annotation"}, + {"case_annotation"}, + ), + EXPLANATIONS: (set(), {"explanation"}), + } + for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS: + keys = REWRITE_KEYS[name] + changes = changed_cells(base[name], staged[name], keys) + for row_key, columns in changes.items(): + output = row_key[:2] + classes, text = allowed[name] + permitted = (classes if output in new_keys else set()) | ( + text if output in reworded else set() + ) + require( + set(columns) <= permitted, + f"{name}: {row_key} changes {columns}, outside the release", + ) + counts[name] = len(changes) + return counts + + +# --- Prepare --------------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def stage_paths(stage: Path) -> tuple[Path, Path, Path, Path]: + bundle = stage / "publish" / RUN + return bundle, bundle / "us", bundle / "annotations", stage / "audit" / "cases" + + +def validate_stage(stage: Path) -> Path: + stage = stage.resolve() + require( + stage.is_relative_to((ROOT / STAGE_ROOT).resolve()), + f"the stage must be under {STAGE_ROOT} in this checkout", + ) + return stage + + +def verify_base_stage(base_stage: Path, spec: dict) -> None: + """The base stage holds release 20260930's payload and the bundle files the + base commit froze.""" + payload = base_stage / "data-board46.json" + require( + payload.is_file() and digest(payload) == spec["base_sha256"], + "the base stage's payload is not release 20260930's", + ) + bundle, us, annotations, cases = stage_paths(base_stage) + commit = spec["base_commit"] + for name in (*REFERENCE_FILES, EXCLUSIONS): + require( + (us / name).read_bytes() == git_blob(commit, SNAPSHOT_RUN / name), + f"the base stage's {name} is not the base commit's", + ) + require( + (us / "predictions.csv").read_bytes() + == gzip.decompress(git_blob(commit, SNAPSHOT_RUN / "predictions.csv.gz")), + "the base stage's predictions are not the base commit's", + ) + for name in (ADJUDICATIONS, *ANNOTATION_CSVS): + require( + (annotations / name).read_bytes() == git_blob(commit, ANNOTATIONS / name), + f"the base stage's {name} is not the base commit's", + ) + require(cases.is_dir(), "the base stage has no audit tree") + + +def committed_annotation_inputs(spec: dict) -> dict[str, bytes]: + """The committed annotation CSVs, which must be release 20260930's with + #197's scenario_031 rewrites (its ledger) and nothing else.""" + commit = spec["base_commit"] + base = {name: git_blob(commit, ANNOTATIONS / name) for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS} + ledger = json.loads((ROOT / RULE_031).read_text())["rewrites"] + expected = apply_text_rewrites(base, ledger) + head = {name: git_blob("HEAD", ANNOTATIONS / name) for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS} + for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS: + require( + head[name] == expected[name], + f"the committed {name} is not release 20260930's plus #197's rewrites", + ) + require( + (ROOT / ANNOTATIONS / name).read_bytes() == head[name], + f"the working tree's {name} is not HEAD's", + ) + return head + + +def prepare(args) -> None: + spec = load_spec() + base_stage = args.base_stage.resolve() + stage = validate_stage(args.stage) + require(not stage.exists(), f"{stage} exists; prepare writes a new stage") + verify_base_stage(base_stage, spec) + commit = spec["base_commit"] + + stage.mkdir(parents=True) + for part in ("publish", "audit"): + subprocess.run( + ["cp", "-cRp", str(base_stage / part), str(stage / part)], check=True + ) + bundle, us, annotations, cases_dir = stage_paths(stage) + # Export writes these; a stale copy must not survive into the new stage. + for stale in (bundle / "data.json", us / "data.json"): + stale.unlink(missing_ok=True) + shutil.rmtree(us / "analysis", ignore_errors=True) + + base_exclusions = json.loads(git_blob(commit, SNAPSHOT_RUN / EXCLUSIONS)) + exclusions = build_exclusions(base_exclusions, spec) + (us / EXCLUSIONS).write_text(exclusions_text(exclusions)) + + base_record = json.loads(git_blob(commit, ANNOTATIONS / ADJUDICATIONS)) + entries = new_adjudications(spec, exclusions, cases_dir) + record = build_adjudication_record(base_record, entries) + from policybench.adjudications import excluded_case_keys, parse_adjudications + + adjudications = parse_adjudications(record, "staged record") + require( + excluded_case_keys(adjudications) == {key(e) for e in exclusions["exclusions"]}, + "the adjudications and the exclusions disagree on the excluded outputs", + ) + (annotations / ADJUDICATIONS).write_text(record_text(record)) + + files = committed_annotation_inputs(spec) + rewrites = json.loads((ROOT / REWRITES_PATH).read_text())["rewrites"] + files = apply_text_rewrites(files, rewrites) + files = adjudicated_csvs(files, adjudications) + new_keys = {key(e) for e in entries} + reworded = {(r["scenario_id"], r["variable"]) for r in rewrites} | { + (r["scenario_id"], r["variable"]) + for r in json.loads((ROOT / RULE_031).read_text())["rewrites"] + } + base_files = { + name: git_blob(commit, ANNOTATIONS / name) for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS + } + counts = verify_annotation_scope(base_files, files, new_keys, reworded) + for name, data in files.items(): + (annotations / name).write_bytes(data) + + evidence = build_evidence( + json.loads(git_blob(commit, EVIDENCE)), spec, entries, cases_dir + ) + (ROOT / EVIDENCE).write_text(evidence_text(evidence)) + + write_json( + stage / "stage.json", + { + "release_tag": spec["release_tag"], + "base_tag": spec["base_tag"], + "base_commit": commit, + "base_sha256": spec["base_sha256"], + "exclusions": len(exclusions["exclusions"]), + "new_exclusions": sorted(map(list, new_keys)), + "adjudications": len(record["adjudications"]), + "changed_annotation_rows": counts, + "spec_sha256": digest(ROOT / SPEC_PATH), + "rewrites_sha256": digest(ROOT / REWRITES_PATH), + }, + ) + print( + f"Staged {spec['release_tag']} in {stage}: {len(exclusions['exclusions'])} " + f"exclusions ({len(new_keys)} new), {len(record['adjudications'])} " + f"adjudications, changed annotation rows {counts}" + ) + + +def write_json(path: Path, value: object) -> None: + path.write_text(json.dumps(value, indent=2, sort_keys=True, allow_nan=False) + "\n") + + +# --- Export ---------------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def base_payload(spec: dict) -> dict: + """Release 20260930's payload, from the base commit's frozen run.""" + blob = git_blob(spec["base_commit"], SNAPSHOT_RUN / "data.json.gz") + payload = {"countries": {"us": json.loads(gzip.decompress(blob))}} + text = payload_text(payload) + require( + sha(text.encode()) == spec["base_sha256"] + and len(text.encode()) == spec["base_bytes"], + "the base commit's payload is not release 20260930's", + ) + return payload + + +def payload_text(payload: dict) -> str: + """The bytes export writes and freeze_snapshot reassembles.""" + return json.dumps(payload, allow_nan=False) + + +EXPORT_INPUTS = ( + *(f"us/{name}" for name in (*REFERENCE_FILES, EXCLUSIONS, "predictions.csv")), + *(f"annotations/{name}" for name in ANNOTATION_CSVS), +) + + +def export_payload(bundle: Path, base: dict, exclusions: Path | None = None) -> dict: + """export_full_run on a scratch copy of the bundle's export inputs, with + Fable 5's usage carried from the base. ``exclusions`` substitutes another + exclusion record (the scope check rebuilds with the base's).""" + from policybench.dashboard_schema import validate_dashboard_payload + from policybench.full_run_export import export_full_run + + with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory(dir=bundle.parent) as scratch: + copy_root = Path(scratch) / RUN + for rel in EXPORT_INPUTS: + (copy_root / rel).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + shutil.copyfile(bundle / rel, copy_root / rel) + if exclusions is not None: + shutil.copyfile(exclusions, copy_root / "us" / EXCLUSIONS) + payload = export_full_run(copy_root, countries=["us"], skip_app_data=True) + previous = {row["model"]: row for row in base["countries"]["us"]["modelStats"]} + for model, fields in CARRIED_USAGE.items(): + row = next( + r for r in payload["countries"]["us"]["modelStats"] if r["model"] == model + ) + for field in fields: + row[field] = previous[model][field] + errors = validate_dashboard_payload(payload, require_failure_annotations=True) + require(not errors, f"dashboard schema: {errors[:5]}") + return payload + + +def by_model(payload: dict) -> dict[str, dict]: + return {row["model"]: row for row in payload["countries"]["us"]["modelStats"]} + + +def verify_payload( + payload: dict, base: dict, spec: dict, reworded: set, new_keys: set +) -> None: + """Every change from release 20260930's payload is one the release makes.""" + now, before = payload["countries"]["us"], base["countries"]["us"] + require(set(now) == set(before), "the payload's sections changed") + for section in set(now) - CHANGED_SECTIONS: + require(now[section] == before[section], f"{section} changed") + stats, base_stats = by_model(payload), by_model(base) + require( + set(stats) == set(base_stats) and len(stats) == BOARD_MODELS, + "the roster is not release 20260930's 46 models", + ) + scored = TOTAL_OUTPUTS - len(now["referenceExclusions"]) + for model, row in stats.items(): + require(row["n"] == scored, f"{model} is scored on {row['n']}, not {scored}") + require(list(row) == list(base_stats[model]), f"{model}'s fields changed order") + for field in STABLE_STATS: + require( + json.dumps(row.get(field)) == json.dumps(base_stats[model].get(field)), + f"{model}'s {field} changed", + ) + base_excluded = { + (e["scenarioId"], e["variable"]) for e in before["referenceExclusions"] + } + now_excluded = { + (e["scenarioId"], e["variable"]) for e in now["referenceExclusions"] + } + require( + now_excluded - base_excluded == new_keys and base_excluded <= now_excluded, + "the payload's exclusions are not the base's plus the ruled outputs", + ) + require( + set(now["scenarioPredictions"]) == set(before["scenarioPredictions"]), + "the payload's households changed", + ) + for scenario, cells in now["scenarioPredictions"].items(): + require( + set(cells) == set(before["scenarioPredictions"][scenario]), + f"{scenario}'s outputs changed", + ) + for variable, cell in cells.items(): + old = before["scenarioPredictions"][scenario][variable] + output = (scenario, variable) + permitted = set() + if output in new_keys: + permitted |= EXCLUSION_CELL_FIELDS | CLASS_CELL_FIELDS + if output in reworded or output in new_keys: + permitted |= TEXT_CELL_FIELDS + for model, entry in cell.items() if isinstance(cell, dict) else []: + previous = old.get(model) if isinstance(old, dict) else None + if entry == previous: + continue + require( + isinstance(entry, dict) and isinstance(previous, dict), + f"{output} {model} changed shape", + ) + fields = { + f + for f in set(entry) | set(previous) + if entry.get(f) != previous.get(f) + } + require( + fields <= permitted, + f"{output} {model} changes {sorted(fields)}, outside the release", + ) + require(set(cell) == set(old), f"{output}'s models changed") + + +def export(args) -> None: + spec = load_spec() + stage = validate_stage(args.stage) + stage_meta = json.loads((stage / "stage.json").read_text()) + require( + stage_meta["spec_sha256"] == digest(ROOT / SPEC_PATH) + and stage_meta["rewrites_sha256"] == digest(ROOT / REWRITES_PATH), + "the spec or the rewrites changed since prepare; prepare a new stage", + ) + bundle, us, annotations, cases_dir = stage_paths(stage) + base = base_payload(spec) + payload = export_payload(bundle, base) + again = export_payload(bundle, base) + text = payload_text(payload) + require(text == payload_text(again), "two exports of the same stage disagree") + new_keys = {tuple(k) for k in stage_meta["new_exclusions"]} + rewrites = json.loads((ROOT / REWRITES_PATH).read_text())["rewrites"] + reworded = {(r["scenario_id"], r["variable"]) for r in rewrites} | { + (r["scenario_id"], r["variable"]) + for r in json.loads((ROOT / RULE_031).read_text())["rewrites"] + } + verify_payload(payload, base, spec, reworded, new_keys) + + # Scope: with release 20260930's exclusion record, the staged bundle + # rebuilds release 20260930's statistics exactly. So every score change + # comes from the eight records, and none from the annotation text. + with tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile(dir=stage, suffix=".json") as handle: + handle.write(git_blob(spec["base_commit"], SNAPSHOT_RUN / EXCLUSIONS)) + handle.flush() + with_base_exclusions = export_payload(bundle, base, Path(handle.name)) + for section in ("modelStats", "programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights"): + require( + with_base_exclusions["countries"]["us"][section] + == base["countries"]["us"][section], + f"with the base exclusions, {section} is not release 20260930's", + ) + + path = stage / f"data-board{BOARD_MODELS}.json" + path.write_text(text) + shutil.copyfile(path, bundle / "data.json") + files = [bundle / rel for rel in EXPORT_INPUTS] + [annotations / ADJUDICATIONS] + files += [ + cases_dir / case_dir_name(*k) / name + for k in sorted(new_keys) + for name in ("verdict.json", "verdict.meta.json") + ] + write_json( + stage / "release-ready.json", + { + "release_tag": spec["release_tag"], + "base_tag": spec["base_tag"], + "base_commit": spec["base_commit"], + "base_sha256": spec["base_sha256"], + "payload_sha256": sha(text.encode()), + "payload_bytes": len(text.encode()), + "models": BOARD_MODELS, + "spec_sha256": digest(ROOT / SPEC_PATH), + "rewrites_sha256": digest(ROOT / REWRITES_PATH), + "evidence_sha256": digest(ROOT / EVIDENCE), + "files": {str(p.relative_to(stage)): digest(p) for p in files}, + }, + ) + ranked = sorted( + by_model(payload).values(), key=lambda r: (-r["exact"], -r["score"], r["model"]) + ) + before = by_model(base) + for rank, row in enumerate(ranked, 1): + print( + f"{rank:>2} {row['model']:32s} {before[row['model']]['exact']:.3f} -> " + f"{row['exact']:.3f} n={row['n']}" + ) + data = text.encode() + print(f"Exported {spec['release_tag']}: {sha(data)} ({len(data)} bytes)") + + +# --- Freeze ---------------------------------------------------------------------- + +# Manifest paths the freeze may change; every other leaf must equal HEAD's. +MANIFEST_CHANGES = ( + ("audit_annotation_artifacts", "files"), + ("audit_annotation_artifacts", "developer_adjudications"), + ("committed_snapshot_artifacts", "us_impact_summary_by_model.csv"), + ("developer_adjudications",), + ("reference_exclusions",), + ("live_dashboard_artifact",), + ("published_dashboard_artifact",), + ("source_run_artifacts", RUN, "files"), + ("files",), + ("model_response_date",), + ("reproducibility_notes",), + ("rendered_paper_artifacts",), +) +# Frozen run files that must stay release 20260930's. +FROZEN_UNCHANGED = (*REFERENCE_FILES, "predictions.csv.gz") + + +def leaf_paths(before, after, path=()) -> list[tuple]: + if isinstance(before, dict) and isinstance(after, dict): + out = [] + for name in sorted(set(before) | set(after)): + if name not in before or name not in after: + out.append((*path, name)) + else: + out.extend(leaf_paths(before[name], after[name], (*path, name))) + return out + if ( + isinstance(before, list) + and isinstance(after, list) + and len(before) == len(after) + ): + out = [] + for index, (a, b) in enumerate(zip(before, after)): + out.extend(leaf_paths(a, b, (*path, index))) + return out + return [] if before == after else [path] + + +def manifest_problems(before: dict, after: dict) -> list[tuple]: + return [ + path + for path in leaf_paths(before, after) + if not any(path[: len(prefix)] == prefix for prefix in MANIFEST_CHANGES) + ] + + +def versions_description(text: str, exclusions: list[dict]) -> str: + """The live version's description with the exclusion counts recomputed.""" + by_engine: dict[str, int] = {} + for record in exclusions: + by_engine[record["engine_version"]] = ( + by_engine.get(record["engine_version"], 0) + 1 + ) + old, new = ( + by_engine["policyengine-us 1.755.4"], + by_engine["policyengine-us 2.15.17"], + ) + pattern = re.compile( + r"the \d+ excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: \d+ from " + r"policyengine-us 1\.755\.4, \d+ from 2\.15\.17" + ) + require(len(pattern.findall(text)) == 1, "the version description changed form") + return pattern.sub( + f"the {old + new} excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: " + f"{old} from policyengine-us 1.755.4, {new} from 2.15.17", + text, + ) + + +def verify_receipt(stage: Path, spec: dict) -> dict: + receipt = json.loads((stage / "release-ready.json").read_text()) + require( + receipt["release_tag"] == spec["release_tag"] + and receipt["base_sha256"] == spec["base_sha256"] + and receipt["base_commit"] == spec["base_commit"] + and receipt["spec_sha256"] == digest(ROOT / SPEC_PATH) + and receipt["rewrites_sha256"] == digest(ROOT / REWRITES_PATH) + and receipt["evidence_sha256"] == digest(ROOT / EVIDENCE), + "the receipt does not bind this release, its base, spec, rewrites and evidence", + ) + payload = stage / f"data-board{BOARD_MODELS}.json" + require( + digest(payload) == receipt["payload_sha256"], "the payload changed after export" + ) + for rel, pin in receipt["files"].items(): + require(digest(stage / rel) == pin, f"{rel} changed after export") + return receipt + + +def freeze(args) -> None: + spec = load_spec() + stage = validate_stage(args.stage) + receipt = verify_receipt(stage, spec) + bundle, us, annotations, cases_dir = stage_paths(stage) + payload_path = stage / f"data-board{BOARD_MODELS}.json" + + import freeze_snapshot as freezer + import pandas as pd + + if hasattr(pd.options, "future") and hasattr(pd.options.future, "infer_string"): + pd.options.future.infer_string = False + + window = freezer.model_response_window( + us / "predictions.csv", spec["model_response_start"] + ) + head_manifest = json.loads(git_blob("HEAD", MANIFEST)) + # The working tree is HEAD in every file the freeze reads or writes. + for rel in ( + MANIFEST, + SERVING, + POINTER, + VERSIONS, + *(ANNOTATIONS / n for n in (ADJUDICATIONS, AMENDMENTS, *ANNOTATION_CSVS)), + ): + require( + (ROOT / rel).read_bytes() == git_blob("HEAD", rel), + f"the working tree's {rel} is not HEAD's", + ) + base_serving = git_blob(spec["base_commit"], SERVING) + require( + git_blob("HEAD", SERVING) == base_serving, + "HEAD's serving configuration is not the base's", + ) + tag = spec["release_tag"] + pointer = { + "asset": "dashboard-data.json", + "bytes": payload_path.stat().st_size, + "repo": "PolicyEngine/policybench", + "sha256": receipt["payload_sha256"], + "tag": tag, + "url": f"https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/download/{tag}/dashboard-data.json", + "version": 1, + } + exclusions = json.loads((us / EXCLUSIONS).read_text())["exclusions"] + versions = json.loads(git_blob("HEAD", VERSIONS)) + live = next(v for v in versions["versions"] if v["artifact"] == {"pointer": "live"}) + live["description"] = versions_description(live["description"], exclusions) + if args.dry_run: + print( + f"Validated {tag}: payload {receipt['payload_sha256']}, window {window}, " + f"{len(exclusions)} exclusions; nothing written" + ) + return + + freezer.SNAPSHOT_DATE = spec["snapshot_date"] + freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_START = spec["model_response_start"] + freezer.MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE = None + freezer.SOURCE_RUN = bundle + freezer.SOURCE_US = us + freezer.SOURCE_ANNOTATIONS = annotations + freezer.REFERENCE_META_SOURCE = us / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + freezer.PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_SOURCE = payload_path + freezer.PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_ARTIFACT = { + k: pointer[k] for k in ("tag", "asset", "url", "sha256", "bytes") + } + freezer.RUN_STATE_EVIDENCE = {} + freezer.AUDIT_CASES_DIR = cases_dir + freezer.audit_judge_provenance = functools.partial( + freezer.audit_judge_provenance, cases_dir=cases_dir + ) + freezer.developer_adjudications_block = functools.partial( + freezer.developer_adjudications_block, cases_dir=cases_dir + ) + + def freeze_serving(destination: Path) -> None: + # No model changed, so every row keeps release 20260930's evidence. + destination.write_bytes(base_serving) + + freezer.freeze_serving_configuration = freeze_serving + write_json(ROOT / POINTER, pointer) + (ROOT / VERSIONS).write_text(json.dumps(versions, indent=2, sort_keys=True) + "\n") + shutil.copyfile(annotations / ADJUDICATIONS, ROOT / ANNOTATIONS / ADJUDICATIONS) + freezer.main() + + # freeze_snapshot rebuilds the annotations directory from the stage; the + # wording-amendments record is committed beside it and does not change. + (ROOT / ANNOTATIONS / AMENDMENTS).write_bytes( + git_blob("HEAD", ANNOTATIONS / AMENDMENTS) + ) + frozen = sorted(p.name for p in (ROOT / ANNOTATIONS).iterdir() if p.is_file()) + require( + frozen == sorted((ADJUDICATIONS, AMENDMENTS, *ANNOTATION_CSVS)), + f"frozen annotation files: {frozen}", + ) + for name in (ADJUDICATIONS, *ANNOTATION_CSVS): + require( + (ROOT / ANNOTATIONS / name).read_bytes() + == (annotations / name).read_bytes(), + f"the frozen {name} is not the staged one", + ) + for name in FROZEN_UNCHANGED: + require( + (ROOT / SNAPSHOT_RUN / name).read_bytes() + == git_blob(spec["base_commit"], SNAPSHOT_RUN / name), + f"the frozen {name} is not release 20260930's", + ) + require( + (ROOT / SNAPSHOT_RUN / EXCLUSIONS).read_bytes() + == (us / EXCLUSIONS).read_bytes(), + "the frozen exclusion record is not the staged one", + ) + require( + (ROOT / SERVING).read_bytes() == base_serving, + "the serving configuration changed", + ) + manifest = json.loads((ROOT / MANIFEST).read_text()) + problems = manifest_problems(head_manifest, manifest) + require(not problems, f"the manifest changed outside the release: {problems[:8]}") + require( + manifest["model_response_date"] == window, + "the manifest's window is not the derived one", + ) + cache = ( + ROOT / "app/.cache" / f"dashboard-data-{receipt['payload_sha256'][:16]}.json" + ) + cache.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + shutil.copyfile(payload_path, cache) + asset = stage / "predictions.csv.gz" + freezer.gzip_deterministic( + us / "predictions.csv", asset, stored_name="predictions.csv" + ) + require( + asset.read_bytes() == (ROOT / SNAPSHOT_RUN / "predictions.csv.gz").read_bytes(), + "the predictions asset is not the frozen predictions", + ) + print(f"Froze {tag} locally: payload {receipt['payload_sha256']}, window {window}") + print( + "Next: sensitivity rescoring, prose, notes and tests, paper render, " + "freeze_snapshot.py --rendered-only, then the release upload." + ) + + +def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.splitlines()[0]) + sub = parser.add_subparsers(dest="step", required=True) + step = sub.add_parser("prepare") + step.add_argument("--base-stage", type=Path, required=True) + step.add_argument("--stage", type=Path, required=True) + step = sub.add_parser("export") + step.add_argument("--stage", type=Path, required=True) + step = sub.add_parser("freeze") + step.add_argument("--stage", type=Path, required=True) + step.add_argument("--dry-run", action="store_true") + args = parser.parse_args(argv) + {"prepare": prepare, "export": export, "freeze": freeze}[args.step](args) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py b/scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py index fbdd70f9..8cddcb28 100644 --- a/scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py +++ b/scripts/rescore_sensitivity_summaries.py @@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ 51: "fifty-one", 55: "fifty-five", 56: "fifty-six", + 64: "sixty-four", 66: "sixty-six", } diff --git a/sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md b/sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md index 1c0487ae..a78e3a2e 100644 --- a/sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md +++ b/sensitivity/claude-thinking-2026-08.md @@ -47,24 +47,29 @@ runs also use the canonical whole-scenario request shape changes, while Claude Opus 5's isolates thinking alone. All ranks are on the 46-model board (2026-09-30). Scores are on the -1,928 outputs the board scores; the 56 outputs `reference_exclusions.json` +1,920 outputs the board scores; the 64 outputs `reference_exclusions.json` lists (engine defects, and references that depend on an input the prompt never states) are excluded for every model, sensitivity runs included. On all 1,984 outputs the thinking runs scored 87.1, 85.8 and 80.3. | | board exact | thinking exact | delta | would rank | cost/hh | median s/hh | parsed | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| Claude Fable 5 | 83.6 (#21) | **91.5** | +7.9 | **#7** | $0.541 → $0.323 | 54 | 1,984/1,984 | -| Claude Opus 5 | 84.0 (#20) | **90.0** | +6.0 | #10 | $0.067 → $0.152 | 51 | 1,984/1,984 | -| Claude Sonnet 5 | 72.6 (#44) | **84.8** | +12.2 | #20 | $0.086 | 64 | 1,928/1,984 | +| Claude Fable 5 | 84.9 (#21) | **92.8** | +7.9 | **#6** | $0.541 → $0.323 | 54 | 1,984/1,984 | +| Claude Opus 5 | 85.2 (#20) | **91.3** | +6.0 | #9 | $0.067 → $0.152 | 51 | 1,984/1,984 | +| Claude Sonnet 5 | 73.8 (#44) | **86.1** | +12.3 | #20 | $0.086 | 64 | 1,928/1,984 | In this table and the Claude Fable 5.1 table below, deltas are differences of the unrounded scores, so a delta can differ by 0.1 from the difference of the rounded scores shown; the per-program tables subtract the rounded rates. +Each would-rank places the unrounded score on the board, so a score that +rounds level with a board row's can rank on either side of it: Claude Opus +5's 91.252 falls just below GPT-6.1 Sol's 91.263, and Claude Fable 5.1's +`auto` score of 93.037, in the section below, sits just above GPT-6 Luna's +93.021. Under `auto`, Fable 5 and Opus 5 chose to call the answer tool on every response; Sonnet 5 failed to produce a parseable tool call on 56 of its -1,984 answers; the 55 on scored outputs count as misses inside its 84.8. Fable 5's +1,984 answers; the 55 on scored outputs count as misses inside its 86.1. Fable 5's sensitivity run also costs less than its leaderboard run: whole-scenario requests drop its per-household spend from $0.541 to $0.323 even with thinking on. @@ -86,17 +91,17 @@ versioned re-run, never an edit to existing scores; the plan is ## Where thinking helps (Claude Fable 5, per program) -Per-variable within-$1 rates, board (forced) vs `auto`, on the 1,928 +Per-variable within-$1 rates, board (forced) vs `auto`, on the 1,920 scored outputs. These are unweighted leaf rates from the heatmap; the -headline weights by dollar magnitude, so these do not average to 91.5. +headline weights by dollar magnitude, so these do not average to 92.8. | program | board | auto | delta | |---|---|---|---| -| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 58.5 | 79.3 | +20.8 | -| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 62.8 | 74.4 | +11.6 | +| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 60.8 | 82.3 | +21.5 | +| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 63.5 | 75.3 | +11.8 | | federal_refundable_credits | 87.8 | 96.9 | +9.1 | | person_medicare_eligible | 91.3 | 99.4 | +8.1 | -| payroll_tax | 82.8 | 89.9 | +7.1 | +| payroll_tax | 86.3 | 93.7 | +7.4 | | state_refundable_credits | 82.7 | 86.7 | +4.0 | | snap | 83.9 | 87.1 | +3.2 | | ssi | 96.9 | 100.0 | +3.1 | @@ -140,14 +145,14 @@ reason. The ranks are on the 46-model board (2026-09-30). | | board exact | auto exact | delta | would rank | cost/hh | median s/hh | parsed | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| Claude Fable 5.1 | 90.8 (#7) | **91.7** | +0.9 | #6 | $0.257 → $0.348 | 49 → 53 | 1,984/1,984 | +| Claude Fable 5.1 | 92.1 (#7) | **93.0** | +1.0 | #5 | $0.257 → $0.348 | 49 → 53 | 1,984/1,984 | -The two rows sit 0.9 points apart, and no program moves more than three +The two rows sit 1.0 points apart, and no program moves more than three points between them (table below). Read against Claude Fable 5, the -picture matches August: Fable 5.1's JSON board row (90.8) is 7.2 points -above Fable 5's forced-tool board row (83.6) and 0.7 below Fable 5's -`auto` run (91.5); Fable 5.1's own `auto` run (91.7) is 0.2 above Fable -5's under the identical request. Scores are on the 1,928 scored outputs; +picture matches August: Fable 5.1's JSON board row (92.1) is 7.2 points +above Fable 5's forced-tool board row (84.9) and 0.7 below Fable 5's +`auto` run (92.8); Fable 5.1's own `auto` run (93.0) is 0.2 above Fable +5's under the identical request. Scores are on the 1,920 scored outputs; on all 1,984 the auto run scored 88.0. The model called the answer tool on every one of its 1,984 answers under `auto`. @@ -156,15 +161,15 @@ Per-variable within-$1 rates for Claude Fable 5.1, board (JSON) vs `auto` | program | board (JSON) | auto (tool declared) | delta | |---|---|---|---| -| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 73.3 | 75.6 | +2.3 | +| state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 74.1 | 76.5 | +2.4 | | person_medicare_eligible | 96.5 | 98.3 | +1.8 | -| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 79.3 | 80.5 | +1.2 | +| federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits | 82.3 | 83.5 | +1.2 | | free_school_meals_eligible | 98.0 | 99.0 | +1.0 | | reduced_price_school_meals_eligible | 99.0 | 100.0 | +1.0 | | ssi | 99.0 | 100.0 | +1.0 | | person_medicaid_eligible | 97.1 | 97.7 | +0.6 | | local_income_tax | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | -| payroll_tax | 88.9 | 88.9 | +0.0 | +| payroll_tax | 92.6 | 92.6 | +0.0 | | person_early_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | | person_head_start_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | | person_wic_eligible | 100.0 | 100.0 | +0.0 | diff --git a/sensitivity/data/claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json b/sensitivity/data/claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json index aa461f0a..208eaf3e 100644 --- a/sensitivity/data/claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json +++ b/sensitivity/data/claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json @@ -3,37 +3,37 @@ "sensitivity_model_id": "claude-fable-5.1-thinking", "condition": "answer tool declared, tool_choice auto (POLICYBENCH_CONTRACT_OVERRIDE=tool POLICYBENCH_TOOL_CHOICE=auto), whole scenario", "run_date": "2026-09-01", - "release": "dashboard-data-20260930", + "release": "dashboard-data-20261006", "assets": { "sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-predictions.csv.gz": { "sha256": "452bf5165540462561748ea75dcfa71f5a023ef0281f303aeac7c7ea39c1f1bd", "bytes": 183014 }, "sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz": { - "sha256": "07513d592001f82952790f990d3035046cce97471b9116251edb694e4f46f70e", - "bytes": 842 + "sha256": "90fe6cd42e4b7186be1c6266641eece1509dd4ed0a16aaa03b06951defb98a20", + "bytes": 858 } }, "board": { - "exact": 90.828, - "within1pct": 92.249, - "score": 96.611, + "exact": 92.07, + "within1pct": 93.215, + "score": 96.653, "cost_per_household": 0.257, "latency_seconds": 49.12, - "n_parsed": 1928, - "n": 1928 + "n_parsed": 1920, + "n": 1920 }, "sensitivity": { - "exact": 91.728, - "would_rank": 6, - "within1pct": 93.119, - "score": 97.063, + "exact": 93.037, + "would_rank": 5, + "within1pct": 94.151, + "score": 97.172, "cost_per_household": 0.3481, "cost_usd": 34.81, "latency_seconds": 52.54, "n_parsed": 1984, "n": 1984 }, - "delta_exact": 0.9, - "scored_against": "the frozen 46-model board's reference outputs and household output-group weights (paper/snapshot/20260501), with the fifty-six outputs listed in the run's reference_exclusions.json removed from scoring as they are for every board row (1,928 scored outputs); exact, within-1% and the bounded score all on that universe. The fold used results/local/fable51/predictions32.csv as the incumbent base" + "delta_exact": 0.967, + "scored_against": "the frozen 46-model board's reference outputs and household output-group weights (paper/snapshot/20260501), with the sixty-four outputs listed in the run's reference_exclusions.json removed from scoring as they are for every board row (1,920 scored outputs); exact, within-1% and the bounded score all on that universe. The fold used results/local/fable51/predictions32.csv as the incumbent base" } diff --git a/sensitivity/data/claude-thinking-2026-08.json b/sensitivity/data/claude-thinking-2026-08.json index b5eb5cc3..41ec5606 100644 --- a/sensitivity/data/claude-thinking-2026-08.json +++ b/sensitivity/data/claude-thinking-2026-08.json @@ -1,8 +1,8 @@ { - "release": "dashboard-data-20260930", + "release": "dashboard-data-20261006", "run_dates": "2026-08", "condition": "tool_choice auto (POLICYBENCH_TOOL_CHOICE=auto); Fable 5 and Sonnet 5 also whole-scenario (POLICYBENCH_CHUNK_OVERRIDE=none)", - "scored_against": "the frozen 46-model board's reference outputs and household output-group weights (paper/snapshot/20260501), with the fifty-six outputs listed in the run's reference_exclusions.json removed from scoring as they are for every board row (1,928 scored outputs); per-variable rates likewise on the scored outputs", + "scored_against": "the frozen 46-model board's reference outputs and household output-group weights (paper/snapshot/20260501), with the sixty-four outputs listed in the run's reference_exclusions.json removed from scoring as they are for every board row (1,920 scored outputs); per-variable rates likewise on the scored outputs", "runs": { "claude-fable-5-thinking": { "model": "claude-fable-5", @@ -13,26 +13,26 @@ "bytes": 221318 }, "sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz": { - "sha256": "ee3db1a37faf1648a0c21cd1fb1993b40a8a104a0bfefa52a9836b6a6ea1631a", - "bytes": 845 + "sha256": "b932bf60a04a68c0ffe314c814d22a388abb34cc3c7d6afb33af81d83b1496e3", + "bytes": 865 } }, "board": { - "exact": 83.625, - "within1pct": 84.042, - "score": 92.873, - "n": 1928, - "n_parsed": 1928 + "exact": 84.892, + "within1pct": 85.316, + "score": 92.973, + "n": 1920, + "n_parsed": 1920 }, "sensitivity": { - "exact": 91.521, - "within1pct": 92.531, - "score": 96.761, - "would_rank": 7, + "exact": 92.817, + "within1pct": 93.613, + "score": 96.857, + "would_rank": 6, "n": 1984, "n_parsed": 1984 }, - "delta_exact": 7.896 + "delta_exact": 7.925 }, "claude-opus-5-thinking": { "model": "claude-opus-5", @@ -43,26 +43,26 @@ "bytes": 186361 }, "sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz": { - "sha256": "d8a52ab7c80008ab518dc5ea1437413a161db190def86c8e11c268152b50d995", - "bytes": 845 + "sha256": "c7da011913fcd10ae82c31d8f2532831a0681f06095713de7948726097dd70d1", + "bytes": 874 } }, "board": { - "exact": 84.03, - "within1pct": 85.007, - "score": 93.104, - "n": 1928, - "n_parsed": 1928 + "exact": 85.223, + "within1pct": 86.201, + "score": 93.192, + "n": 1920, + "n_parsed": 1920 }, "sensitivity": { - "exact": 90.013, - "within1pct": 91.849, - "score": 96.18, - "would_rank": 10, + "exact": 91.252, + "within1pct": 92.819, + "score": 96.226, + "would_rank": 9, "n": 1984, "n_parsed": 1984 }, - "delta_exact": 5.983 + "delta_exact": 6.029 }, "claude-sonnet-5-thinking": { "model": "claude-sonnet-5", @@ -73,26 +73,26 @@ "bytes": 219240 }, "sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz": { - "sha256": "f460a942e6b713b7f20d737131a470fcf6c2aa2e15ba4032337d55a98ff1990d", - "bytes": 968 + "sha256": "b77ececefb4aed4d9c68bbcca0ed7c721b5105566d6e22f044415a3dcb498ebf", + "bytes": 992 } }, "board": { - "exact": 72.642, - "within1pct": 74.663, - "score": 82.49, - "n": 1928, - "n_parsed": 1928 + "exact": 73.794, + "within1pct": 75.814, + "score": 82.569, + "n": 1920, + "n_parsed": 1920 }, "sensitivity": { - "exact": 84.803, - "within1pct": 87.737, - "score": 94.564, + "exact": 86.076, + "within1pct": 89.026, + "score": 94.651, "would_rank": 20, "n": 1984, "n_parsed": 1928 }, - "delta_exact": 12.161 + "delta_exact": 12.282 } } } diff --git a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz index 1b1d97a9..066c0f77 100644 Binary files a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz and b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-1-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz differ diff --git a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz index eed245e4..caf2d489 100644 Binary files a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz and b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-fable-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz differ diff --git a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz index 88d154b9..02df36be 100644 Binary files a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz and b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-opus-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz differ diff --git a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz index 4408d5cc..79dc61ff 100644 Binary files a/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz and b/sensitivity/data/sensitivity-claude-sonnet-5-thinking-by-variable.csv.gz differ diff --git a/tests/test_adjudications.py b/tests/test_adjudications.py index dead1329..78ec75b9 100644 --- a/tests/test_adjudications.py +++ b/tests/test_adjudications.py @@ -25,33 +25,48 @@ # cases GPT-6.1 Sol re-opened; everything else in the record is 20260929's. RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT = "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d" EVIDENCE_20260930 = ROOT / "docs/gpt61sol/judge_verdicts_20260930.json" +# The squash merge of #187, which froze release dashboard-data-20260930. Release +# 20261006 (Max's rulings of 2026-10-05) builds on it and adds the 2026-10-05 +# wave's decisions; every earlier entry is 20260930's. +RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT = "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2" @cache -def _record_20260929_text() -> str: +def _record_text(commit: str) -> str: + """The adjudication record as a release commit holds it.""" shown = subprocess.run( [ "git", "-C", str(ROOT), "show", - f"{RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT}:annotations/{RUN_LABEL}/us_adjudications.json", + f"{commit}:annotations/{RUN_LABEL}/us_adjudications.json", ], capture_output=True, text=True, ) assert shown.returncode == 0, ( - "release 20260929's record needs git history; fetch full history. " + f"the record at {commit[:12]} needs git history; fetch full history. " + shown.stderr ) return shown.stdout +def _entries_at(commit: str, tmp_path: Path) -> list[dict]: + """A release's adjudication entries, as its commit holds them.""" + path = tmp_path / f"us_adjudications_{commit[:12]}.json" + path.write_text(_record_text(commit)) + return load_adjudications(path) + + def _entries_20260929(tmp_path: Path) -> list[dict]: """Release 20260929's adjudication entries, as its commit holds them.""" - path = tmp_path / "us_adjudications_20260929.json" - path.write_text(_record_20260929_text()) - return load_adjudications(path) + return _entries_at(RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT, tmp_path) + + +def _entries_20260930(tmp_path: Path) -> list[dict]: + """Release 20260930's adjudication entries, as its commit holds them.""" + return _entries_at(RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT, tmp_path) def _entry(**overrides: object) -> dict: @@ -218,17 +233,30 @@ def test_load_validates_the_record(tmp_path: Path): def test_committed_record_is_applied_to_the_frozen_annotations(): entries = load_adjudications(ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") - assert len(entries) == 69 + # 69 through release 20260930; the 2026-10-05 wave added one + # prompt_ambiguity decision for each of the eight outputs the 2026-10-05 + # audits excluded. + assert len(entries) == 77 assert Counter(e["adjudicated_failure_source"] for e in entries) == Counter( - {"reference_engine_defect": 28, "prompt_ambiguity": 28, "llm_error": 13} + {"reference_engine_defect": 28, "prompt_ambiguity": 36, "llm_error": 13} ) + new_wave = [e for e in entries if e["adjudicated_on"] == "2026-10-05"] + assert len(new_wave) == 8 + assert { + ( + e["adjudicated_failure_source"], + e["reference_verdict"], + e["excluded_from_scoring"], + ) + for e in new_wave + } == {("prompt_ambiguity", "unlisted_input", True)} # Every excluded output has its adjudication. Eleven llm_error entries are # the references a flag questioned and the adjudication affirmed (five) or # replaced with a regenerated reference (six); the other two resolve rows # the September 29 judge called later law (scenario_007 federal income tax # and scenario_008 New Jersey refundable credits), whose law predates the # reference freeze. - assert sum(bool(e.get("excluded_from_scoring")) for e in entries) == 56 + assert sum(bool(e.get("excluded_from_scoring")) for e in entries) == 64 assert Counter( e.get("reference_verdict") for e in entries @@ -273,14 +301,15 @@ def test_committed_record_is_applied_to_the_frozen_annotations(): assert set(zip(ambiguous["scenario_id"], ambiguous["variable"])) <= keys manifest = json.loads((ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json").read_text()) block = manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["developer_adjudications"] - assert block["cases"] == 69 + assert block["cases"] == 77 # The judge's own class for each case (its verdict.json), not the # adjudicated one; the freezer refuses a record that differs from it. # After the 2026-09-30 restatements (release 20260929 had llm_error 50, # prompt_ambiguity 2, reference_data_issue_fixed 1 and - # reference_model_issue_fixed 16). + # reference_model_issue_fixed 16), release 20260930 had llm_error 59; the + # judge called each of the 2026-10-05 wave's eight cases an LLM error. assert block["by_judge_verdict"] == { - "llm_error": 59, + "llm_error": 67, "reference_data_issue_fixed": 1, "reference_engine_defect": 3, "reference_model_issue_fixed": 6, @@ -288,14 +317,26 @@ def test_committed_record_is_applied_to_the_frozen_annotations(): assert block["by_judge_verdict"] == dict( Counter(e["judge_failure_source"] for e in entries) ) + # unlisted_input was 20 in release 20260930. + assert block["by_reference_verdict"] == { + "affirmed": 5, + "engine_defect": 28, + "regenerated": 6, + "unlisted_input": 28, + } + assert block["by_reference_verdict"] == dict( + Counter(e["reference_verdict"] for e in entries if e.get("reference_verdict")) + ) + # The judge flagged none of the 2026-10-05 wave's references. assert block["judge_flagged_by_reference_verdict"] == { "affirmed": 5, "engine_defect": 20, "regenerated": 6, "unlisted_input": 8, } + assert not any(e["judge_reference_suspect"] for e in new_wave) assert manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["files"]["us_adjudications.json"] - assert manifest["reference_exclusions"]["outputs"] == 56 + assert manifest["reference_exclusions"]["outputs"] == 64 def test_verify_requires_agreement_with_the_complete_record(): @@ -622,12 +663,16 @@ def test_each_judge_flag_is_the_flag_of_the_verdict_its_date_names(tmp_path): def test_each_restatement_names_its_20260930_verdict(tmp_path): """Release 20260930 changed the record only on decisions about cases - GPT-6.1 Sol re-opened, and each such entry now names that case's - 2026-09-30 verdict (docs/gpt61sol/judge_verdicts_20260930.json): its judge, - classes and UTC day. Its judge_previous is release 20260929's, with - 20260929's own verdict appended. A flag the new verdict does not raise is - kept as release 20260929 kept flags: with judge_reference_suspect_source, - for a case an earlier 2026-09-22 run flagged.""" + GPT-6.1 Sol re-opened, and each such entry names that case's 2026-09-30 + verdict (docs/gpt61sol/judge_verdicts_20260930.json): its judge, classes + and UTC day. Its judge_previous is release 20260929's, with 20260929's own + verdict appended. A flag the new verdict does not raise is kept as release + 20260929 kept flags: with judge_reference_suspect_source, for a case an + earlier 2026-09-22 run flagged. + + This reads release 20260930's record from its commit, and then checks that + the committed record keeps every one of those entries unchanged and adds + only the 2026-10-05 wave's decisions.""" evidence = json.loads(EVIDENCE_20260930.read_text()) assert evidence["base_commit"] == RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT restated = evidence["cases"] @@ -635,7 +680,7 @@ def test_each_restatement_names_its_20260930_verdict(tmp_path): json.loads((VERIFICATION / "flagged_sept22_wave.json").read_text()) ) base = {_case(e): e for e in _entries_20260929(tmp_path)} - entries = load_adjudications(ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") + entries = _entries_20260930(tmp_path) assert {_case(e) for e in entries} == set(base) kept_flags = 0 for entry in entries: @@ -690,47 +735,78 @@ def test_each_restatement_names_its_20260930_verdict(tmp_path): # Flags raised by an earlier 2026-09-22 run that the 2026-09-30 verdict # does not raise. assert kept_flags == 22 + # Release 20261006 leaves each of release 20260930's entries as it was and + # appends the 2026-10-05 wave's eight decisions. + committed = load_adjudications(ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") + assert committed[: len(entries)] == entries + added = committed[len(entries) :] + assert len(added) == 8 + assert {e["adjudicated_on"] for e in added} == {"2026-10-05"} + assert not {_case(e) for e in added} & set(base) def test_each_decision_records_the_verdict_it_reviewed_by_its_wave_release(): - """adjudicated_on names the audit wave (date_conventions). An earlier + """adjudicated_on names the audit wave (date_conventions). A committed wave's decisions were written up to the day its release was committed; - this release's wave, whose release has no commit yet, records the day its - adjudications were written. So the verdict each decision reviewed -- - adjudicated_verdict where a later wave replaced it, otherwise the earliest - verdict the entry keeps -- is dated on or before that day, and it is the - verdict the wave's release published. + this release's wave (2026-10-05), whose release has no commit yet, records + the day its adjudications were written. So the verdict each decision + reviewed -- adjudicated_verdict where a later wave replaced it, otherwise + the earliest verdict the entry keeps -- is dated on or before that day, and + a committed wave's decision reviewed the verdict its release published. Intended exceptions to "on or before adjudicated_on": 46 decisions of the 2026-09-22 wave reviewed verdicts its own judge runs finished on 2026-09-23 UTC, before its release was committed that day.""" record = json.loads((ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json").read_text()) - assert "adjudicated_on names the audit wave" in record["date_conventions"] evidence = _judge_evidence() - released = {} + released, uncommitted = {}, [] for wave, release in evidence["wave_releases"].items(): if release["commit"] is None: # Not committed yet: the day the adjudications were written, and # no commit or pull request until the lead fills them after merge. assert "committed_on" not in release and release["pull_request"] is None released[wave] = release["adjudications_written_on"] + uncommitted.append(wave) else: assert "adjudications_written_on" not in release + assert release["pull_request"] is not None, wave released[wave] = release["committed_on"] - # The record's date conventions state the same days. + # A wave's decisions are written on or after the wave's own date. + assert wave <= released[wave], wave + waves = list(released) + assert waves == sorted(waves) + # Only this release's own wave, the latest, has no commit. + assert uncommitted == [waves[-1]] == ["2026-10-05"] + committed = waves[:-1] + assert len(committed) == 3 + # The record's decisions come from exactly these waves. + assert {e["adjudicated_on"] for e in record["adjudications"]} == set(waves) + # The record's date conventions name the waves and state the same days. assert ( - "The 2026-09-05 and 2026-09-22 waves' decisions were written up to the " - "day each wave's release was committed " - f"({released['2026-09-05']} and {released['2026-09-22']}), and the " - "2026-09-29 wave's decisions were written on " - f"{released['2026-09-29']} UTC, after its reference sweep began." + "adjudicated_on names the audit wave that made the decision " + f"({', '.join(waves[:-1])} or {waves[-1]})." ) in record["date_conventions"] - # That sweep began on the same UTC day. + # The 2026-09-29 wave's reference sweep began on the wave's own date, on + # or before the day its release was committed. timing = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "sweep_timing.json").read_text()) - assert ( - timing["reference_sweep"]["first_output_at_utc"][:10] - == (released["2026-09-29"]) + sweep_day = timing["reference_sweep"]["first_output_at_utc"][:10] + assert sweep_day == "2026-09-29" <= released["2026-09-29"] + committed_days = ( + f"The {committed[0]}, {committed[1]} and {committed[2]} waves' decisions " + "were written up to the day each wave's release was committed " + f"({released[committed[0]]}, {released[committed[1]]} and " + f"{released[committed[2]]}); the 2026-09-29 wave's reference sweep " + f"began on {sweep_day} UTC, before its decisions were written. " ) + assert record["date_conventions"].count(committed_days) == 1 + # The next sentence gives the day this release's own wave's decisions were + # written, the day the evidence records. How it describes Max's rulings is + # pinned by test_release_20261006 (release.DATE_CONVENTIONS_NEW), not here, + # so the two tests cannot require different texts. + own_wave = record["date_conventions"].split(committed_days, 1)[1] + own_wave = own_wave.split(". ", 1)[0] + assert own_wave.startswith(f"The {waves[-1]} wave's decisions"), own_wave + assert own_wave.endswith(f" were written on {released[waves[-1]]} UTC"), own_wave later_than_wave = 0 for entry in record["adjudications"]: case, wave = _case(entry), entry["adjudicated_on"] @@ -761,9 +837,11 @@ def test_each_decision_records_the_verdict_it_reviewed_by_its_wave_release(): assert (wave, day) == ("2026-09-22", "2026-09-23"), case later_than_wave += 1 published = evidence["cases"][case].get("published") + # A committed wave's release published the verdict each of its + # decisions reviewed; this release's own wave has published nothing. + assert (published is None) == (wave in uncommitted), case if published is None: - # Decided in this release's own wave. - assert wave == "2026-09-29" and reviewed is None, case + assert reviewed is None, case continue published_verdict = ( published["judge_model"], diff --git a/tests/test_annotation_rewrites.py b/tests/test_annotation_rewrites.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..519e6d89 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_annotation_rewrites.py @@ -0,0 +1,135 @@ +"""Committed rewrites of frozen audit annotations stay in force and stay wording-only. + +reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations/rewrites.json corrects the text +that explained scenario_031's head Medicaid reference with a Medicare Part B premium +the engine never subtracts. A later release that rebuilds the annotation files from +an older base must carry these rewrites (or supersede the ledger), or these tests +fail. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import json +from pathlib import Path + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit" / "2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations" +MANIFEST = ROOT / "paper" / "snapshot" / "20260501" / "manifest.json" +KEYS = { + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable", "model"), + "us_case_notes.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable"), + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": ("scenario_id", "variable"), +} +FIELDS = { + "us_audit_row_annotations.csv": "annotation", + "us_case_notes.csv": "case_annotation", + "us_case_reference_explanations.csv": "explanation", +} + + +def _rewrites() -> list[dict]: + return json.loads((AUDIT / "rewrites.json").read_text())["rewrites"] + + +def _annotation_dir() -> Path: + manifest = json.loads(MANIFEST.read_text()) + return ROOT / manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["path"] + + +def _rows(name: str) -> list[dict]: + with (_annotation_dir() / name).open(newline="") as source: + return list(csv.DictReader(source)) + + +def test_every_rewrite_is_in_force(): + for name, key_columns in KEYS.items(): + items = [item for item in _rewrites() if item["file"] == name] + rows = _rows(name) + index = {} + for row in rows: + index.setdefault(tuple(row[c] for c in key_columns), []).append(row) + for item in items: + key = tuple(item[c] for c in key_columns) + assert len(index.get(key, [])) == 1, (name, key) + assert index[key][0][FIELDS[name]] == item["new"], (name, key) + + +def test_no_rewritten_text_survives_anywhere(): + old_texts = {item["old"] for item in _rewrites()} + for name, field in FIELDS.items(): + for row in _rows(name): + assert row[field] not in old_texts, (name, row["scenario_id"]) + + +def test_rewrites_are_wording_only_and_well_formed(): + rewrites = _rewrites() + assert rewrites + keys = set() + for item in rewrites: + assert item["file"] in KEYS + assert item["field"] == FIELDS[item["file"]] + assert item["old"] != item["new"] + assert item["reason"].strip() + key = (item["file"], *(item[c] for c in KEYS[item["file"]])) + assert key not in keys, key + keys.add(key) + # A rewrite carries text only: no class, source or subtype field. + assert set(item) <= { + "file", + "field", + "scenario_id", + "variable", + "model", + "old", + "new", + "reason", + } + + +def test_rewritten_rows_keep_their_classes(): + """The rows stay model errors; the rewrites change no failure class.""" + rewritten = { + (item["scenario_id"], item["variable"], item["model"]) + for item in _rewrites() + if item["file"] == "us_audit_row_annotations.csv" + } + rows = [ + row + for row in _rows("us_audit_row_annotations.csv") + if (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"], row["model"]) in rewritten + ] + assert len(rows) == len(rewritten) + assert {row["failure_source"] for row in rows} == {"llm_error"} + assert {row["reference_suspect"] for row in rows} == {"False"} + + +def test_engine_record_backs_the_figures_the_text_states(): + """The recomputed engine values are the ones the case note and explanation give.""" + record = json.loads((AUDIT / "verification" / "engine_values.json").read_text()) + summary = record["summary"] + assert record["published_reference"] == 1.0 + assert summary["countable_income"] <= summary["income_limit"] + for reading in ("no_part_b", "not_enrolled"): + assert ( + record["readings"][reading][ + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income" + ] + == record["readings"]["modeled"][ + "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income" + ] + ) + figures = [ + f"${summary['gross_unearned_income']:,.2f}", + f"${summary['countable_income']:,.2f}", + f"${summary['income_limit']:,.2f}", + ] + for name in ("us_case_notes.csv", "us_case_reference_explanations.csv"): + (row,) = [ + row + for row in _rows(name) + if (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) + == ("scenario_031", "head_medicaid_eligible") + ] + for figure in figures: + assert figure in row[FIELDS[name]], (name, figure) diff --git a/tests/test_disclosures.py b/tests/test_disclosures.py index e9ff6982..001c4e2a 100644 --- a/tests/test_disclosures.py +++ b/tests/test_disclosures.py @@ -264,13 +264,17 @@ def test_current_board_copy_makes_no_identical_request_claim(): def test_audit_disclosures_use_the_frozen_legacy_threshold_universe(): counts = _audit_counts_from_frozen_files() - # Release 20260929's counts plus GPT-6.1 Sol's 88 exact misses. + # Release 20261006: release 20260930's counts (7,860 annotated, 7,856 + # exact misses, 2,107 unannotated) less the 368 scored rows on the eight + # outputs it excludes: 333 annotated exact misses and 35 unannotated rows + # below full bounded score. The app's summarizeAuditUniverse recomputes + # the same counts from the payload (app/tests/auditUniverse.test.ts). assert counts == { - "annotated": 7_860, - "exact_misses": 7_856, - "annotated_exact_misses": 7_856, + "annotated": 7_527, + "exact_misses": 7_523, + "annotated_exact_misses": 7_523, "annotated_exact_hits": 4, - "unannotated_below_full_bounded_score": 2_107, + "unannotated_below_full_bounded_score": 2_072, } for path in ( diff --git a/tests/test_finish_adds0928.py b/tests/test_finish_adds0928.py index 3aa8d033..f0edb023 100644 --- a/tests/test_finish_adds0928.py +++ b/tests/test_finish_adds0928.py @@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import csv import hashlib import json +import subprocess import sys from pathlib import Path from types import SimpleNamespace @@ -19,6 +20,56 @@ from policybench.audit import AUDIT_OUTPUT_SCHEMA # noqa: E402 +# The merge of PR #182 on main, whose tree holds release 20260929: the release +# this driver built. Later releases rewrite the working tree's snapshot, so a +# test that checks this driver against what its release committed reads that +# release from git here (CI checks out full history). +RELEASE_COMMIT = "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d" +REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] + + +def release_blob(path: Path) -> bytes: + """A repository file as committed at RELEASE_COMMIT.""" + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(REPO), "show", f"{RELEASE_COMMIT}:{path.as_posix()}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + if result.returncode: + pytest.fail( + f"cannot read {path} at release commit {RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]}; fetch " + f"full history (git fetch --unshallow): {result.stderr.decode().strip()}" + ) + return result.stdout + + +@pytest.fixture +def release_checkout(tmp_path, monkeypatch): + """The driver reads a scratch ROOT holding what release 20260929 committed. + + Its live pointer, its snapshot's five reference files and the wave's + final_actions.json are RELEASE_COMMIT's. The driver's own base_commit_blob + still reads the 22c base from git at BASE_COMMIT in this checkout. + """ + root = tmp_path / "release-20260929" + snapshot = root / driver.SNAPSHOT.relative_to(driver.ROOT) + actions = root / driver.AUDIT_ACTIONS.relative_to(driver.ROOT) + paths = [root / "app/src/data.artifact.json", actions] + for path in paths + [snapshot / name for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES]: + path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + path.write_bytes(release_blob(path.relative_to(root))) + read_base = driver.base_commit_blob + + def base_commit_blob(path: Path) -> bytes: + with pytest.MonkeyPatch.context() as checkout: + checkout.setattr(driver, "ROOT", REPO) + return read_base(path) + + monkeypatch.setattr(driver, "ROOT", root) + monkeypatch.setattr(driver, "SNAPSHOT", snapshot) + monkeypatch.setattr(driver, "AUDIT_ACTIONS", actions) + monkeypatch.setattr(driver, "base_commit_blob", base_commit_blob) + return root + @pytest.fixture def runs(tmp_path): @@ -447,8 +498,10 @@ def export_full_run(path, *, countries, skip_app_data): def test_strict_export_recombines_to_freeze_bytes_and_binds_evidence( - tmp_path, monkeypatch + tmp_path, monkeypatch, release_checkout ): + """On release 20260929's committed snapshot (release_checkout), a strict + export writes the freeze's bytes and binds the staged evidence.""" import policybench.dashboard_schema import policybench.full_run_export @@ -468,7 +521,8 @@ def test_strict_export_recombines_to_freeze_bytes_and_binds_evidence( for path in evidence: path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) path.write_text(f"Evidence: {path.name}\n") - # The export gates the staged exclusion record, so stage the committed one. + # The export gates the staged exclusion record, so stage the committed one: + # release 20260929's, from the release checkout. (bundle / "us/reference_exclusions.json").write_bytes( (driver.SNAPSHOT / "reference_exclusions.json").read_bytes() ) @@ -878,15 +932,17 @@ def _superseded(pointer: dict) -> bool: return True -def test_a_re_export_after_the_freeze_gates_on_the_22c_asset(monkeypatch): +def test_a_re_export_after_the_freeze_gates_on_the_22c_asset(monkeypatch, request): """After the freeze the live pointer names this release, so a re-export reads the 22c payload from git and checks it against the 22c asset's - sha256; any other pointer is refused.""" + sha256; any other pointer is refused. Once a later release is live, the + re-export refuses, and the checks run on release 20260929's committed + checkout (release_checkout).""" pointer = json.loads((driver.ROOT / "app/src/data.artifact.json").read_text()) if pointer["tag"] == driver.BASE_TAG: pytest.skip("this checkout is still at the 22c base") if _superseded(pointer): - return + request.getfixturevalue("release_checkout") live = driver.resolve_live_base(SimpleNamespace()) stats = live["countries"]["us"]["modelStats"] assert len(stats) == 42 @@ -1064,15 +1120,19 @@ def test_resolve_base_checks_the_exclusion_set_first( driver.resolve_base(args) -def test_a_re_export_after_the_freeze_gates_the_committed_exclusions(monkeypatch): +def test_a_re_export_after_the_freeze_gates_the_committed_exclusions( + monkeypatch, request +): """After the freeze, resolve_live_base checks the committed record: the 22c exclusions, the revision's three and final_actions.json's audit exclusion. - Dropping the audit's list makes the committed record fail the gate.""" + Dropping the audit's list makes the committed record fail the gate. Once a + later release is live, the re-export refuses, and the checks run on + release 20260929's committed checkout (release_checkout).""" pointer = json.loads((driver.ROOT / "app/src/data.artifact.json").read_text()) if pointer["tag"] == driver.BASE_TAG: pytest.skip("this checkout is still at the 22c base") if _superseded(pointer): - return + request.getfixturevalue("release_checkout") added = driver.check_exclusions(driver.reference_revision(), driver.SNAPSHOT) assert ("scenario_023", "head_medicaid_eligible") in added assert len(added) == 4 @@ -1085,7 +1145,6 @@ def test_a_re_export_after_the_freeze_gates_the_committed_exclusions(monkeypatch # pass. Registering each with monkeypatch restores it after the test. FREEZER_ASSIGNED = ( "SNAPSHOT_DATE", - "MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE", "SOURCE_RUN", "SOURCE_US", "SOURCE_ANNOTATIONS", diff --git a/tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py b/tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py index f9605b7d..6485d55e 100644 --- a/tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py +++ b/tests/test_finish_gpt61sol.py @@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ import contextlib import copy +import functools import gzip import hashlib import json @@ -47,6 +48,50 @@ ) # The supervised runs root holding GPT-6.1 Sol's finished run. RUNS = Path("/Users/maxghenis/PolicyEngine/policybench/results/local/adds202609") +# The #187 squash on main, whose tree holds release 20260930: the release this +# driver built. Later releases rewrite the working tree's snapshot and +# annotations, so a test that checks this driver against what its release +# committed reads that release from git here (CI checks out full history), as +# the driver reads release 20260929 from BASE_COMMIT. +RELEASE_COMMIT = "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2" +REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +SNAPSHOT_PATH = Path("paper/snapshot/20260501/runs") / driver.RUN_NAME +ADJUDICATIONS_PATH = Path("annotations") / driver.RUN_NAME / driver.ADJUDICATIONS + + +@functools.cache +def release_blob(path: Path) -> bytes: + """A repository file as committed at RELEASE_COMMIT.""" + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(REPO), "show", f"{RELEASE_COMMIT}:{path.as_posix()}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + if result.returncode: + pytest.fail( + f"cannot read {path} at release commit {RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]}; fetch " + f"full history (git fetch --unshallow): {result.stderr.decode().strip()}" + ) + return result.stdout + + +def release_references(directory: Path) -> Path: + """Write the five reference files release 20260930 committed into + ``directory``, and return it.""" + directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: + (directory / name).write_bytes(release_blob(SNAPSHOT_PATH / name)) + return directory + + +def release_adjudications() -> list[dict]: + """The adjudication entries release 20260930 committed: the record its + freeze wrote.""" + from policybench.adjudications import parse_adjudications + + return parse_adjudications( + json.loads(release_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH)), + f"{RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]}:{ADJUDICATIONS_PATH}", + ) def test_the_addition_is_gpt61sol_alone_on_a_46_model_board(): @@ -397,51 +442,59 @@ def test_resume_refuses_changed_staged_inputs(workspace): # --- Reference pins ------------------------------------------------------------ -def test_the_committed_references_match_their_pins(): - driver.verify_reference_pins(driver.SNAPSHOT, "committed reference") +def test_the_committed_references_match_their_pins(tmp_path): + """The references release 20260930 committed, read from RELEASE_COMMIT, + are release 20260929's pinned bytes: the release has no reference + revision.""" + snapshot = release_references(tmp_path / "snapshot") + driver.verify_reference_pins(snapshot, "committed reference") for name, pin in driver.BASE_REFERENCE_SHA256.items(): - raw = (driver.SNAPSHOT / name).read_bytes() + raw = (snapshot / name).read_bytes() assert hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest() == pin from policybench.reference_exclusions import ( load_reference_exclusions, split_reference, ) - exclusions = load_reference_exclusions(driver.SNAPSHOT) + exclusions = load_reference_exclusions(snapshot) assert len(exclusions) == driver.BASE_EXCLUSIONS reasons = [e["reason_code"] for e in exclusions] assert reasons.count("reference_engine_defect") == 28 assert reasons.count("reference_depends_on_unlisted_input") == 28 - reference = pd.read_csv(driver.SNAPSHOT / "reference_outputs.csv") + reference = pd.read_csv(snapshot / "reference_outputs.csv") assert len(reference) == driver.BASE_OUTPUTS assert reference.scenario_id.nunique() == 100 assert len(split_reference(reference, exclusions)[0]) == driver.BASE_SCORED -def test_the_committed_adjudications_exclude_exactly_the_scoring_exclusions(): - """Triage requires this of the staged copy, which prepare takes from here.""" - from policybench.adjudications import excluded_case_keys, load_adjudications +def test_the_committed_adjudications_exclude_exactly_the_scoring_exclusions( + tmp_path, +): + """Triage requires this of the staged copy, which prepare took from + release 20260929's record; the record release 20260930 committed keeps + it. Both are read from git, against the references release 20260930 + committed.""" + from policybench.adjudications import excluded_case_keys from policybench.reference_exclusions import ( exclusion_keys, load_reference_exclusions, ) - decisions = load_adjudications(driver.ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") - assert excluded_case_keys(decisions) == exclusion_keys( - load_reference_exclusions(driver.SNAPSHOT) + excluded = exclusion_keys( + load_reference_exclusions(release_references(tmp_path / "snapshot")) ) - # Excluded on review of release 20260929, apart from any engine change. - assert ("scenario_023", "head_medicaid_eligible") in excluded_case_keys(decisions) + for decisions in (driver.base_adjudications(), release_adjudications()): + assert excluded_case_keys(decisions) == excluded + # Excluded on review of release 20260929, apart from any engine change. + assert ("scenario_023", "head_medicaid_eligible") in excluded_case_keys( + decisions + ) @pytest.fixture def pinned_copy(tmp_path): - """A copy of the five committed reference files.""" - directory = tmp_path / "references" - directory.mkdir() - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, directory / name) - return directory + """A copy of the five reference files release 20260930 committed.""" + return release_references(tmp_path / "references") @pytest.mark.parametrize("name", driver.REFERENCE_FILES) @@ -485,6 +538,17 @@ def test_the_base_commit_holds_release_20260929(): assert hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest() == pin +def test_the_release_commit_holds_this_drivers_release(): + """The tests read what this driver's release committed from RELEASE_COMMIT: + its live pointer names RELEASE_TAG, and its snapshot path is the driver's.""" + pointer = json.loads(release_blob(Path("app/src/data.artifact.json"))) + assert pointer["tag"] == driver.RELEASE_TAG + assert SNAPSHOT_PATH == driver.SNAPSHOT.relative_to(driver.ROOT) + assert ADJUDICATIONS_PATH == ( + driver.ANNOTATIONS / driver.ADJUDICATIONS + ).relative_to(driver.ROOT) + + def test_the_base_predictions_pin_is_the_release_commits_not_the_working_trees( tmp_path, monkeypatch ): @@ -1241,11 +1305,10 @@ def test_the_committed_seed_digest_is_the_pinned_one(): def test_every_committed_adjudication_decides_a_case_the_seed_judged(): """Runs anywhere: a recorded decision rules on a judge verdict, so its case - is one of the seed's judged cases.""" - from policybench.adjudications import load_adjudications - + is one of the seed's judged cases. The record is the one release 20260930 + committed, read from RELEASE_COMMIT.""" seed = _committed_seed_digest() - decisions = load_adjudications(driver.ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") + decisions = release_adjudications() assert {driver.case_id(entry) for entry in decisions} <= set(seed) @@ -1282,8 +1345,9 @@ def test_the_committed_adjudications_keep_the_seed_judge_verdicts(tmp_path): ) verify_adjudications_keep_judge_verdicts(load_adjudications(base), SEED / "cases") if STAGE_CASES.is_dir(): - decisions = load_adjudications(driver.ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json") - verify_adjudications_keep_judge_verdicts(decisions, STAGE_CASES) + # This release's record as RELEASE_COMMIT holds it, not the working + # tree's, which a later release rewrites. + verify_adjudications_keep_judge_verdicts(release_adjudications(), STAGE_CASES) case = SEED / "cases/us__scenario_023__head_medicaid_eligible" meta = json.loads((case / "verdict.meta.json").read_text()) assert meta["prompt_sha256"] == driver.digest(case / "prompt.md") @@ -1726,9 +1790,12 @@ def exporting(tmp_path, monkeypatch): stage = tmp_path / "stage" bundle = stage / "publish" / driver.RUN_NAME - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - (bundle / "us").mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, bundle / "us" / name) + # The references release 20260930 committed, from RELEASE_COMMIT: the + # committed snapshot export checks, and the staged bundle's copies. + monkeypatch.setattr( + driver, "SNAPSHOT", release_references(tmp_path / "committed-snapshot") + ) + release_references(bundle / "us") exported = {} gate_calls = [] diff --git a/tests/test_freeze_gpt61sol.py b/tests/test_freeze_gpt61sol.py index 91072758..a2f6efa2 100644 --- a/tests/test_freeze_gpt61sol.py +++ b/tests/test_freeze_gpt61sol.py @@ -8,10 +8,12 @@ import copy import csv +import functools import hashlib import json import re import shutil +import subprocess import sys from pathlib import Path @@ -31,7 +33,16 @@ # The run files the committed input pins name (driver.PINNED_INPUTS). PINNED = ("predictions.csv", "run_state.json") BUNDLE = Path("publish") / RUN -COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS = driver.ANNOTATIONS / "us_adjudications.json" +# The #187 squash on main, whose tree holds release 20260930: what this freeze +# committed. Later releases rewrite the working tree's snapshot and +# annotations, so the tests read this release's committed files from git here +# (CI checks out full history), as the freeze reads release 20260929's from +# BASE_COMMIT. +RELEASE_COMMIT = "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2" +REPO = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +SNAPSHOT_DIR = Path("paper/snapshot/20260501") +ADJUDICATIONS_PATH = Path("annotations") / RUN / "us_adjudications.json" + # The synthetic stage's one judged case, an incumbent-only case kept from the # seed, and the audit evidence the receipt must bind for it. KEPT = "us__scenario_000__snap" @@ -45,6 +56,37 @@ ] +@functools.cache +def release_blob(path: Path) -> bytes: + """A repository file as committed at RELEASE_COMMIT.""" + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(REPO), "show", f"{RELEASE_COMMIT}:{path.as_posix()}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + if result.returncode: + pytest.fail( + f"cannot read {path} at release commit {RELEASE_COMMIT[:12]}; fetch " + f"full history (git fetch --unshallow): {result.stderr.decode().strip()}" + ) + return result.stdout + + +def release_references(directory: Path) -> Path: + """Write the five reference files release 20260930 committed into + ``directory``, and return it. They are release 20260929's pinned bytes + (test_finish_gpt61sol.py checks this).""" + directory.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: + (directory / name).write_bytes(release_blob(SNAPSHOT_DIR / "runs" / RUN / name)) + return directory + + +def committed_record() -> dict: + """The adjudication record release 20260930 committed, as its commit holds + it: release 20260929's restated where GPT-6.1 Sol re-opened a case.""" + return json.loads(release_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH)) + + SOL = "gpt-6.1-sol" # GPT-6.1 Sol's run file as the synthetic stage pins it, with the usage # columns its published cost, tokens and latency come from, and an incumbent @@ -375,14 +417,13 @@ def staged_board(freeze_preflight, monkeypatch, rebuilds, exports): # judged case is kept, so its verdict must stay the seed's. seed = driver.seed_digest(stage / "audit") monkeypatch.setattr(driver, "load_seed", lambda stage: seed) - snapshot = release.ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501" + snapshot = release.ROOT / SNAPSHOT_DIR frozen = snapshot / "runs" / RUN frozen.mkdir(parents=True) - source = driver.ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501" + # The snapshot release 20260930 committed, from RELEASE_COMMIT. for name in ("manifest.json", "model_serving_config.json"): - shutil.copyfile(source / name, snapshot / name) - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, frozen / name) + (snapshot / name).write_bytes(release_blob(SNAPSHOT_DIR / name)) + release_references(frozen) # The incumbents' rows are release 20260929's, as export leaves them. stats = driver.base_payload_from_commit()["countries"]["us"]["modelStats"] stats += [{"model": SOL, "condition": "no_tools", "exact": 61.5, "score": 74.2}] @@ -452,8 +493,7 @@ def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_provenance_record_export_did_not_bind( record edited afterwards, one the receipt does not bind or binds under another path, or a missing one, is refused before any workspace mutation.""" stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") rebind() receipt = json.loads((stage / "release-ready.json").read_text()) if defect == "edited": @@ -537,8 +577,7 @@ def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_payload_edited_after_export(staged_board, edit, dr hash updated to match, is refused before any workspace mutation: the payload export builds from the bound bundle is not the staged one.""" stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") payload = stage / "data-board46.json" board = json.loads(payload.read_text()) paths = PAYLOAD_EDITS[edit](board) @@ -561,8 +600,7 @@ def test_the_rebuild_reads_a_scratch_copy_of_the_bound_bundle( payload rebuilds, carrying Fable 5's usage as export does, and the freeze goes on to its next gate.""" stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") rebind() def next_gate(stage): @@ -646,8 +684,7 @@ def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_verdict_edited_after_export( entry re-hashed, must still be refused before any workspace mutation; so must a verdict the seed does not carry that is bound to no prompt.""" stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") case = stage / "audit/cases" / KEPT if defect == "edited_kept": verdict = json.loads((case / "verdict.json").read_text()) @@ -817,14 +854,14 @@ def _publish_annotations(stage: Path) -> None: @pytest.fixture def annotated_board(staged_board, monkeypatch): - """The synthetic stage with 20260929's references and the annotations - triage publishes, past every gate up to the annotation gate; the next - gate, the incumbents' predictions, stops the freeze. The kept case is - decided by no adjudication. The record gate reads the committed record's - 69 cases, which the synthetic audit lacks; it is tested on its own.""" + """The synthetic stage with the references release 20260930 committed + (20260929's pinned bytes) and the annotations triage publishes, past every + gate up to the annotation gate; the next gate, the incumbents' + predictions, stops the freeze. The kept case is decided by no + adjudication. The record gate reads the committed record's 69 cases, + which the synthetic audit lacks; it is tested on its own.""" stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") monkeypatch.setattr(release, "verify_adjudication_record", lambda *a, **k: 0) _publish_annotations(stage) @@ -896,9 +933,8 @@ def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_revised_staged_reference_before_mutation(staged_bo def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_dropped_adjudication_before_mutation(staged_board): stage, rebind = staged_board - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) - record = json.loads(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS.read_text()) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") + record = committed_record() record["adjudications"].pop(0) (stage / BUNDLE / "annotations/us_adjudications.json").write_text( driver.record_text(record) @@ -919,9 +955,8 @@ def test_the_freeze_baseline_is_release_20260929_in_git_not_the_working_tree( stage, rebind = staged_board monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "ANNOTATIONS_DEST", release.ROOT / "annotations" / RUN) - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, stage / BUNDLE / "us" / name) - record = json.loads(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS.read_text()) + release_references(stage / BUNDLE / "us") + record = committed_record() record["adjudications"].pop(0) staged = stage / BUNDLE / "annotations/us_adjudications.json" staged.write_text(driver.record_text(record)) @@ -939,15 +974,11 @@ def test_the_freeze_baseline_is_release_20260929_in_git_not_the_working_tree( @pytest.fixture def references(tmp_path): - staged = tmp_path / "staged" - frozen = tmp_path / "frozen" - for directory in (staged, frozen): - directory.mkdir() - for name in driver.REFERENCE_FILES: - shutil.copyfile(driver.SNAPSHOT / name, directory / name) - manifest = json.loads( - (driver.ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json").read_text() - ) + """The references and the manifest release 20260930 committed, from + RELEASE_COMMIT, as the staged, committed and manifest-pinned copies.""" + staged = release_references(tmp_path / "staged") + frozen = release_references(tmp_path / "frozen") + manifest = json.loads(release_blob(SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) return staged, frozen, manifest @@ -978,9 +1009,7 @@ def adjudications(tmp_path): """Release 20260929's record, from git at BASE_COMMIT: the baseline every staged record is checked against, before and after this release's freeze.""" staged = tmp_path / "us_adjudications.json" - staged.write_bytes( - driver.base_commit_blob(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS.relative_to(driver.ROOT)) - ) + staged.write_bytes(driver.base_commit_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH)) record = json.loads(staged.read_text()) return staged, record @@ -994,8 +1023,11 @@ def _case(entry): def _verify(staged, rejudged=frozenset(), amendments=()): + """The record gate on ``staged``, the references release 20260930 + committed (20260929's pinned bytes) standing in for the staged ones.""" + source_us = release_references(staged.parent / "release-references") return release.verify_adjudication_record( - staged, driver.SNAPSHOT, frozenset(rejudged), list(amendments) + staged, source_us, frozenset(rejudged), list(amendments) ) @@ -1006,20 +1038,22 @@ def test_the_committed_record_is_release_20260929s_restated_where_reopened( where GPT-6.1 Sol re-opened a case (the cases the committed judge provenance record lists), only in judge fields and by the committed wording amendments, and with no decision added.""" - reopened = frozenset( - entry["case_id"] - for entry in json.loads(driver.JUDGE_PROVENANCE.read_text())["verdicts"] - ) + # All three as RELEASE_COMMIT holds them: a later release rewrites the + # working tree's record. + provenance = json.loads(release_blob(Path(driver.JUDGE_PROVENANCE_PATH))) + reopened = frozenset(entry["case_id"] for entry in provenance["verdicts"]) stage = tmp_path / "stage" stage.mkdir() - shutil.copyfile( - driver.ANNOTATIONS / f"us_{driver.AMENDMENTS}", stage / driver.AMENDMENTS + (stage / driver.AMENDMENTS).write_bytes( + release_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH.with_name(f"us_{driver.AMENDMENTS}")) ) amendments = driver.load_amendments(stage, reopened) assert len(amendments) == 394 - assert _verify(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS, reopened, amendments) == 0 - committed = json.loads(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS.read_text())["adjudications"] - assert committed != driver.base_adjudications() + committed = tmp_path / "committed" / "us_adjudications.json" + committed.parent.mkdir() + committed.write_bytes(release_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH)) + assert _verify(committed, reopened, amendments) == 0 + assert committed_record()["adjudications"] != driver.base_adjudications() def test_an_unchanged_adjudication_record_passes(adjudications): @@ -1103,7 +1137,7 @@ def test_a_new_exclusion_is_refused(adjudications): def test_the_committed_record_is_in_the_form_the_gate_requires(): - text = COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS.read_text() + text = release_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH).decode() driver.verify_record_form(text, driver.base_adjudication_record()) assert text == driver.record_text(json.loads(text)) @@ -1354,8 +1388,9 @@ def test_a_listed_wording_amendment_is_allowed_and_nothing_else(adjudications): # Unlisted, the same change is refused. with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="change recorded decisions"): _verify(staged, {_case(entry)}) - # Listed but not applied, it is refused too: the list is exact. - shutil.copyfile(COMMITTED_ADJUDICATIONS, staged) + # Listed but not applied, it is refused too: the list is exact. The record + # goes back to the fixture's, release 20260929's, which lacks the change. + staged.write_bytes(driver.base_commit_blob(ADJUDICATIONS_PATH)) with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="change recorded decisions"): _verify(staged, {_case(entry)}, [amendment]) # Any other change beside it is still refused. diff --git a/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py b/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8a2610be --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +"""The Louisiana 2026 standard deduction audit (reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana). + +Checks the committed sweep and scoring records against each other and against the +statute's arithmetic, without loading the engine: + +- the sweep's baseline reproduces every scored reference, and the candidates move only + the two Louisiana state income tax outputs; +- for every Louisiana household and every candidate, the engine's Louisiana tax is 3% + of Louisiana AGI less the candidate deduction (R.S. 47:32, 47:293, 47:294), with the + joint, head of household and surviving spouse amount at 200% of the single one; +- between any two candidates, each output moves by exactly 3% of the change in the + deduction where taxable income stays positive, and not at all where it stays zero; +- the analyze CLI's scoring moves exact match for exactly the models a $1-tolerance + count of their answers says it should. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import gzip +import itertools +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana" +VERIFICATION = AUDIT / "verification" +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +OUTPUTS = { + ("scenario_051", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_077", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), +} +CANDIDATES = ( + "engine", + "dec_dec_unrounded", + "annual_average", + "ldr_published", + "ldr_official", + "hold_2025", +) +RATE = 0.03 +DOUBLE = {"joint", "head_of_household", "surviving_spouse"} + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def sweep() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv") + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def households() -> dict: + return json.loads((VERIFICATION / "sweep_la_households.json").read_text()) + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def filing_status() -> dict[str, str]: + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + return { + row["scenario_id"]: json.loads(row["scenario_json"])["filing_status"].lower() + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows() + } + + +def test_baseline_reproduces_every_scored_reference(sweep): + assert len(sweep) == 1984 + scored = sweep[~sweep["excluded"]] + assert len(scored) == 1928 + assert scored["baseline_matches_reference"].all() + + +def test_engine_candidate_is_the_reference(sweep): + assert not sweep["engine_changed"].any() + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("candidate", CANDIDATES[1:]) +def test_candidates_move_only_the_two_louisiana_outputs(sweep, candidate): + changed = sweep[sweep[f"{candidate}_changed"]] + assert set(zip(changed["scenario_id"], changed["variable"])) == OUTPUTS + assert not changed["excluded"].any() + + +def test_statute_arithmetic_for_every_louisiana_household(households, filing_status): + candidates = households["candidates_single"] + assert {h["scenario_id"] for h in households["households"]} == { + "scenario_038", + "scenario_051", + "scenario_057", + "scenario_074", + "scenario_077", + } + for household in households["households"]: + multiple = 2 if filing_status[household["scenario_id"]] in DOUBLE else 1 + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + d = household[candidate] + assert d["la_standard_deduction"] == pytest.approx( + multiple * candidates[candidate], abs=0.01 + ) + assert d["la_itemized_deductions"] == 0 + taxable = max(d["la_agi"] - d["la_standard_deduction"], 0) + assert d["la_taxable_income"] == pytest.approx(taxable, abs=0.01) + assert d["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] == pytest.approx( + RATE * taxable - d["la_non_refundable_credits"], abs=0.01 + ) + + +def test_pairwise_moves_are_three_percent_of_the_deduction_change( + households, filing_status +): + candidates = households["candidates_single"] + for household in households["households"]: + multiple = 2 if filing_status[household["scenario_id"]] in DOUBLE else 1 + for a, b in itertools.permutations(CANDIDATES, 2): + da, db = household[a], household[b] + move = ( + db["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] + - da["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] + ) + if da["la_taxable_income"] > 0 and db["la_taxable_income"] > 0: + expected = -RATE * multiple * (candidates[b] - candidates[a]) + assert move == pytest.approx(expected, abs=0.01) + if da["la_taxable_income"] == 0 and db["la_taxable_income"] == 0: + assert move == 0 + + +def test_scoring_moves_exact_match_for_exactly_the_models_that_match(): + summary = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact.json").read_text()) + assert summary["published_reproduced"] is True + models = pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv") + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + predictions = published["scenarioPredictions"] + for option in ("keep", "ldr_published", "ldr_official", "hold_2025"): + values = summary["reference_values"][option] + matched = set() + for key, reference in values.items(): + sid, variable = key.split("/") + within = sorted( + model + for model, row in predictions[sid][variable].items() + if row.get("prediction") is not None + and abs(float(row["prediction"]) - reference) <= 1.0 + ) + assert within == summary["options"][option]["exact_models"][key] + matched.update(within) + rows = models[models["option"] == option] + moved = set(rows[rows["exact_delta"] > 1e-12]["model"]) + assert moved == matched, option + assert summary["options"]["exclude"]["scored_outputs"] == 1926 + assert summary["options"]["keep"]["scored_outputs"] == 1928 diff --git a/tests/test_model_response_window.py b/tests/test_model_response_window.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3b6da59c --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_model_response_window.py @@ -0,0 +1,339 @@ +"""The snapshot's model response window ends on the last answer it records. + +Release dashboard-data-20260930 dated the window's end by its tag: the drivers +set ``2026-06-12 to ``. GPT-6.1 Sol, the last model on that +board, finished answering at 2026-09-29 22:36 UTC and no model answered on +September 30. ``freeze_snapshot.model_response_window`` now dates the end from +the predictions' latest ``request_completed_at``, and the freeze refuses a +configured window that disagrees. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import json +import os +import sys +import tempfile +import time +from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd +import pytest +from hypothesis import given, settings +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + +import freeze_snapshot as freezer # noqa: E402 + +START = "2026-06-12" + + +def utc(*parts: int) -> float: + return datetime(*parts, tzinfo=timezone.utc).timestamp() + + +# Release 20260930's last answer (GPT-6.1 Sol) and release 20260929's (Grok +# 4.7), as the frozen predictions record them. +LAST_ANSWER_20260930 = utc(2026, 9, 29, 22, 36, 32, 205154) +LAST_ANSWER_20260929 = utc(2026, 9, 29, 1, 26, 43, 931609) + + +def write_predictions(path: Path, rows: list[tuple]) -> Path: + """A predictions file whose rows are (request_started_at, + request_completed_at) pairs; None is a row without timestamps, as the + first waves' and the batch adapter's rows are.""" + frame = pd.DataFrame( + rows, columns=["request_started_at", "request_completed_at"], dtype="float64" + ) + frame.insert(0, "model", "model") + frame.to_csv(path, index=False) + return path + + +def test_the_window_ends_on_the_last_answer_not_the_release_date(tmp_path): + """The mismatch release 20260930 published: its freeze configured + "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30" from the tag, while the last answer is + September 29's. The derived window ends on the 29th, and the configured + one is refused.""" + predictions = write_predictions( + tmp_path / "predictions.csv", + [(None, None), (LAST_ANSWER_20260930 - 3_600, LAST_ANSWER_20260930)], + ) + window = freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) + assert window == "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29" + released = "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30" + with pytest.raises( + SystemExit, + match=r"\(2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30\) is not the predictions' " + r"\(2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29\)", + ): + freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START, released) + # A configured window that names the last answer passes. + assert freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START, window) == window + + +def test_rows_without_timestamps_cannot_move_the_end(tmp_path): + """The first waves predate the timestamp columns; their blank rows leave + the end on the last timed answer.""" + rows = [(None, None)] * 5 + [(utc(2026, 7, 2, 7, 50), utc(2026, 7, 2, 8, 40))] + predictions = write_predictions(tmp_path / "predictions.csv", rows) + assert freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) == ( + "2026-06-12 to 2026-07-02" + ) + + +def test_predictions_that_time_no_answer_are_refused(tmp_path): + predictions = write_predictions(tmp_path / "predictions.csv", [(None, None)]) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="times no answer"): + freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) + untimed = tmp_path / "untimed.csv" + pd.DataFrame({"model": ["model"], "prediction": [1.0]}).to_csv(untimed) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="no request_completed_at, request_started"): + freezer.model_response_window(untimed, START) + + +def test_a_start_after_the_first_timed_request_is_refused(tmp_path): + """The start is configured, but the recorded requests bound it: a request + on July 2 cannot sit in a window that opens on July 3.""" + predictions = write_predictions( + tmp_path / "predictions.csv", + [(utc(2026, 7, 2, 23, 59, 59), utc(2026, 7, 3, 0, 0, 1))], + ) + assert freezer.model_response_window(predictions, "2026-07-02") == ( + "2026-07-02 to 2026-07-03" + ) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="request on 2026-07-02, before"): + freezer.model_response_window(predictions, "2026-07-03") + + +def test_a_request_started_after_the_last_answer_is_refused(tmp_path): + """A request that started after every completion (a row with a start and + no completion) would sit outside a window that ends on the last answer.""" + predictions = write_predictions( + tmp_path / "predictions.csv", + [(utc(2026, 9, 28, 20), utc(2026, 9, 28, 21)), (utc(2026, 9, 30, 1), None)], + ) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="request on 2026-09-30, after its last"): + freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) + + +def test_the_frozen_gzip_dates_like_the_staged_csv(tmp_path): + """The freeze dates the staged predictions.csv; the snapshot keeps its + deterministic gzip, which dates the same.""" + rows = [(None, None), (LAST_ANSWER_20260930 - 60, LAST_ANSWER_20260930)] + staged = write_predictions(tmp_path / "predictions.csv", rows) + frozen = tmp_path / "frozen" / "predictions.csv.gz" + frozen.parent.mkdir() + freezer.gzip_deterministic(staged, frozen, stored_name="predictions.csv") + assert freezer.model_response_window(frozen, START) == ( + freezer.model_response_window(staged, START) + ) + + +@pytest.mark.skipif(not hasattr(time, "tzset"), reason="needs time.tzset") +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "zone", ["UTC", "America/New_York", "America/Los_Angeles", "Pacific/Kiritimati"] +) +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "last_answer, end", + [ + # Release 20260929's last answer: September 28 in US time. + (LAST_ANSWER_20260929, "2026-09-29"), + # Release 20260901's (Claude Fable 5.1): September 1 in US time. + (utc(2026, 9, 2, 0, 29, 19), "2026-09-02"), + (LAST_ANSWER_20260930, "2026-09-29"), + ], +) +def test_the_end_is_the_utc_date_on_any_machine_clock(tmp_path, zone, last_answer, end): + predictions = write_predictions( + tmp_path / "predictions.csv", [(last_answer - 60, last_answer)] + ) + saved = os.environ.get("TZ") + os.environ["TZ"] = zone + time.tzset() + try: + window = freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) + finally: + if saved is None: + del os.environ["TZ"] + else: + os.environ["TZ"] = saved + time.tzset() + assert window == f"2026-06-12 to {end}" + + +def test_a_time_just_before_utc_midnight_stays_on_its_day(): + """``datetime.fromtimestamp`` rounds to the microsecond and would carry + the largest float before midnight into the next day.""" + midnight = utc(2026, 9, 30) + before = float.__sub__(midnight, 2.5e-7) + assert before < midnight + assert freezer._utc_date(before) == date(2026, 9, 29) + assert freezer._utc_date(midnight) == date(2026, 9, 30) + + +# --- The freeze -------------------------------------------------------------- + + +@pytest.fixture +def freeze_inputs(tmp_path, monkeypatch): + """A source run whose predictions end on release 20260930's last answer, + with every step of freeze_snapshot.main that writes stubbed to record + that it ran.""" + source = tmp_path / "run" + (source / "us").mkdir(parents=True) + write_predictions( + source / "us" / "predictions.csv", + [(None, None), (LAST_ANSWER_20260930 - 60, LAST_ANSWER_20260930)], + ) + for name in ("dashboard.json", "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json"): + (tmp_path / name).write_text("{}\n") + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "SOURCE_RUN", source) + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "SOURCE_US", source / "us") + monkeypatch.setattr( + freezer, "PUBLISHED_DASHBOARD_SOURCE", tmp_path / "dashboard.json" + ) + monkeypatch.setattr( + freezer, "REFERENCE_META_SOURCE", tmp_path / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + ) + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE", None) + ran = [] + for step in ( + "remove_stale_artifacts", + "freeze_run", + "freeze_committed_artifacts", + "freeze_annotations", + ): + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, step, lambda step=step: ran.append(step)) + + def build_manifest(run_files, committed, annotation_files, response_window): + raise RuntimeError(f"manifest window: {response_window}") + + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "build_manifest", build_manifest) + return ran + + +def test_the_freeze_dates_the_manifest_from_the_predictions(freeze_inputs): + with pytest.raises( + RuntimeError, match=r"^manifest window: 2026-06-12 to 2026-09-29$" + ): + freezer.main() + assert freeze_inputs == [ + "remove_stale_artifacts", + "freeze_run", + "freeze_committed_artifacts", + "freeze_annotations", + ] + + +def test_the_freeze_refuses_a_release_date_window_before_any_write( + freeze_inputs, monkeypatch +): + """What freeze_gpt61sol configured for dashboard-data-20260930.""" + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "MODEL_RESPONSE_DATE", "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30") + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="not the release date"): + freezer.main() + assert freeze_inputs == [] + + +def test_a_csv_time_just_before_utc_midnight_stays_on_its_day(tmp_path): + """End to end through the CSV parser, not only ``_utc_date``: the last + double before 2027-02-01 00:00 UTC is a January 31 answer. pandas' + default float parser rounds it up to midnight.""" + import math + + completed = math.nextafter(utc(2027, 2, 1), -math.inf) + predictions = write_predictions( + tmp_path / "predictions.csv", [(completed - 60, completed)] + ) + assert freezer.model_response_window(predictions, START) == ( + "2026-06-12 to 2027-01-31" + ) + + +def test_the_real_manifest_builder_publishes_the_window_it_is_given(monkeypatch): + """The stubbed ``build_manifest`` above checks only the argument. Build + the manifest from the committed snapshot with a window no release has + used, and require it in ``model_response_date`` and in both notes that + state the window. The two blocks that read the local audit tree are + stubbed; nothing is written.""" + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "developer_adjudications_block", lambda: {}) + monkeypatch.setattr(freezer, "audit_judge_provenance", lambda: {}) + manifest_path = freezer.SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json" + committed = json.loads(manifest_path.read_text()) + run_files = committed["source_run_artifacts"][freezer.RUN_LABEL]["files"] + window = "2026-06-12 to 2026-07-03" + manifest = freezer.build_manifest( + run_files, + committed["committed_snapshot_artifacts"], + committed["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["files"], + window, + ) + assert manifest["model_response_date"] == window + notes = " ".join(manifest["reproducibility_notes"]) + assert "June 12 and July 3, 2026" in notes + assert f"recorded {window} response window" in notes + for stale in ("September 29", "September 30", "2026-09-29", "2026-09-30"): + assert stale not in notes, stale + + +# --- Properties -------------------------------------------------------------- + +# Requests as the runner records them: microsecond Unix times (time.time()), +# within the board's span, each completing at or after it starts. +EPOCH = datetime(1970, 1, 1, tzinfo=timezone.utc) +FIRST_US = int((datetime(2026, 6, 12, tzinfo=timezone.utc) - EPOCH).total_seconds()) +LAST_US = int((datetime(2027, 6, 30, tzinfo=timezone.utc) - EPOCH).total_seconds()) +REQUEST = st.tuples( + st.integers(FIRST_US * 1_000_000, LAST_US * 1_000_000), + st.integers(0, 6 * 3_600 * 1_000_000), +).map(lambda pair: (pair[0], pair[0] + pair[1])) +ROWS = st.lists(st.one_of(st.none(), REQUEST), min_size=1, max_size=40).filter( + lambda rows: any(rows) +) + + +def exact_date(microseconds: int) -> date: + """The UTC date of an integer microsecond time, in exact arithmetic.""" + return (EPOCH + timedelta(microseconds=microseconds)).date() + + +def window_of(rows: list[tuple[int, int] | None], start: str = START) -> str: + pairs = [ + (None, None) if row is None else (row[0] / 1e6, row[1] / 1e6) for row in rows + ] + with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as scratch: + path = write_predictions(Path(scratch) / "predictions.csv", pairs) + return freezer.model_response_window(path, start) + + +@settings(max_examples=150, deadline=None) +@given(ROWS) +def test_the_end_is_the_latest_completion_and_the_window_holds_every_request(rows): + window = window_of(rows) + first, end = (date.fromisoformat(part) for part in window.split(" to ")) + timed = [row for row in rows if row is not None] + assert first == date.fromisoformat(START) + assert end == exact_date(max(completed for _, completed in timed)) + for started, completed in timed: + assert first <= exact_date(started) <= exact_date(completed) <= end + + +@settings(max_examples=75, deadline=None) +@given(ROWS, st.randoms(use_true_random=False)) +def test_the_window_ignores_row_order(rows, random): + shuffled = list(rows) + random.shuffle(shuffled) + assert window_of(shuffled) == window_of(rows) + + +@settings(max_examples=75, deadline=None) +@given(ROWS, REQUEST) +def test_a_later_answer_never_moves_the_end_earlier(rows, extra): + before = window_of(rows).split(" to ")[1] + after = window_of([*rows, extra]).split(" to ")[1] + assert after >= before + assert after == max(before, exact_date(extra[1]).isoformat()) diff --git a/tests/test_notes.py b/tests/test_notes.py index f9179e5c..19295931 100644 --- a/tests/test_notes.py +++ b/tests/test_notes.py @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ import json import re import sys -from datetime import date +from datetime import date, datetime, timezone from functools import cache from pathlib import Path @@ -62,9 +62,19 @@ def _note(slug: str) -> dict: return _load_json(NOTES_DIR / f"{slug}.json") +SNAPSHOT_DIR = ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501" + + +@cache +def _payload_at(root: Path) -> dict: + """The run payload of the snapshot tree under ``root`` (this checkout, or + a commit's snapshot from ``_snapshot_root``).""" + return read_run_payload(_in(root, RUN_DIR)) + + @cache def _dashboard() -> dict: - return read_run_payload(RUN_DIR) + return _payload_at(ROOT) @cache @@ -73,9 +83,59 @@ def _frozen_release() -> str: return manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["tag"] +def _in(root: Path, path: Path) -> Path: + """A snapshot file as the tree under ``root`` holds it.""" + assert path.is_relative_to(SNAPSHOT_DIR), path + return root / path.relative_to(ROOT) + + +@cache +def _snapshot_root(commit: str) -> Path: + """A scratch tree holding paper/snapshot/20260501 exactly as ``commit`` has + it, removed when the session exits. CI checks out full history.""" + import atexit + import shutil + import subprocess + import tempfile + + def git(*args: str) -> bytes: + shown = subprocess.run(["git", "-C", str(ROOT), *args], capture_output=True) + assert shown.returncode == 0, ( + f"the snapshot at {commit[:8]} needs git history; fetch full " + "history. " + shown.stderr.decode() + ) + return shown.stdout + + snapshot = SNAPSHOT_DIR.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix() + listed = git("ls-tree", "-r", "--name-only", commit, snapshot) + root = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix=f"policybench-snapshot-{commit[:8]}-")) + atexit.register(shutil.rmtree, root, ignore_errors=True) + for name in listed.decode().splitlines(): + target = root / name + target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + target.write_bytes(git("show", f"{commit}:{name}")) + return root + + +def _release_tag(root: Path) -> str: + """The tag the snapshot under ``root`` freezes, after checking that its + manifest pins the payload the tree holds.""" + manifest = _load_json(_in(root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) + payload = run_payload_path(_in(root, RUN_DIR)) + assert manifest["files"] == [ + { + "path": payload.relative_to(_in(root, SNAPSHOT_DIR)).as_posix(), + "sha256": _sha256_file(payload), + } + ] + return manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["tag"] + + # A note keeps the release its facts were checked against. Facts of a note on -# the frozen release are recomputed here; a note on a superseded release keeps -# the facts verified when that release was frozen (git history holds the run). +# the frozen release are recomputed from this checkout's snapshot. A note on a +# superseded release whose freezing commit RELEASE_COMMITS names is recomputed +# from the snapshot that commit holds; an older one keeps the facts verified +# when its release was frozen (git history holds the run). SUPERSEDED_RELEASES = { "dashboard-data-20260901c": "2026-09-01", "dashboard-data-20260905c": "2026-09-05", @@ -92,8 +152,37 @@ def _frozen_release() -> str: # same references and exclusions. Its note's facts are still recomputed, # from the snapshot its own commit holds (RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT). "dashboard-data-20260929": "2026-09-29", + # Superseded by dashboard-data-20261006, which stops scoring eight tax + # outputs on the same references, predictions and board snapshot. The + # October 5 BBCE note's facts are still recomputed, from the snapshot its + # commit holds (RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT). + "dashboard-data-20260930": "2026-09-30", } CURRENT_RELEASE_SNAPSHOT = "2026-09-30" +# The commit that froze each superseded release whose notes' facts are +# recomputed from git: the merges of #182 and #187. +RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT = "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d" +RELEASE_20260930 = "dashboard-data-20260930" +RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT = "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2" +RELEASE_COMMITS = { + "dashboard-data-20260929": RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT, + "dashboard-data-20260930": RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT, +} + + +def _release_root(release: str) -> Path: + """A tree holding paper/snapshot/20260501 as ``release`` froze it: the + snapshot of its commit when it is superseded, this checkout while it is + the frozen release. Checks that the tree's manifest names the release.""" + if release in RELEASE_COMMITS: + root = _snapshot_root(RELEASE_COMMITS[release]) + else: + assert release == _frozen_release(), ( + f"{release} is superseded; add the commit that froze it to RELEASE_COMMITS" + ) + root = ROOT + assert _release_tag(root) == release + return root @cache @@ -107,8 +196,8 @@ def _snap_predictions() -> dict[str, list[dict[str, str]]]: return rows -def _snap_references() -> dict[str, float]: - with REFERENCES_PATH.open(encoding="utf-8", newline="") as source: +def _snap_references(path: Path = REFERENCES_PATH) -> dict[str, float]: + with path.open(encoding="utf-8", newline="") as source: return { row["scenario_id"]: float(row["value"]) for row in csv.DictReader(source) @@ -585,10 +674,15 @@ def test_reference_audit_note_facts() -> None: PREFACE_SENTENCES = (PREFACE_UNLISTED_STATUS, PREFACE_TAKE_UP, PREFACE_NO_INFERENCE) STATE_NAMES = { "AZ": "Arizona", + "CA": "California", + "CO": "Colorado", "CT": "Connecticut", + "MA": "Massachusetts", "MI": "Michigan", + "MN": "Minnesota", "NC": "North Carolina", "NJ": "New Jersey", + "NY": "New York", "PA": "Pennsylvania", "TX": "Texas", "VA": "Virginia", @@ -632,8 +726,10 @@ def _named_models(text: str, display_names: dict[str, str]) -> set[str]: } -def _snap_output_references(variable: str) -> dict[str, float]: - with REFERENCES_PATH.open(encoding="utf-8", newline="") as source: +def _snap_output_references( + variable: str, path: Path = REFERENCES_PATH +) -> dict[str, float]: + with path.open(encoding="utf-8", newline="") as source: return { row["scenario_id"]: float(row["value"]) for row in csv.DictReader(source) @@ -694,26 +790,32 @@ def _check_committed_rows( meta_path: Path, households: list[str], patterns: dict[str, str], - release: str, + rows_release: str, + root: Path, ) -> None: - """The committed rows are the regenerated rows, from the committed payload - of the note's release and the committed pathway recomputation, with the - note's own mention patterns.""" + """The committed rows are the regenerated rows, from the payload of the + snapshot under ``root`` and the committed pathway recomputation, with the + note's own mention patterns. The rows record the release they were built + on, ``rows_release``; when the tree is that release, its payload and its + manifest's asset are the ones the meta pins.""" assert _read_csv(path) == [ {key: str(value) for key, value in row.items()} for row in rows ] meta = _load_json(meta_path) assert meta["households"] == households assert meta["mention_patterns"] == patterns - assert meta["release"] == release == _frozen_release() - # The rows come from the committed run payload; the release asset is a - # different file carrying the same US payload, pinned by the manifest. - assert meta["run_payload_sha256"] == _sha256_file(run_payload_path(RUN_DIR)) - manifest = _load_json(ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json") - assert ( - meta["release_payload_sha256"] - == manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["sha256"] - ) + assert meta["release"] == rows_release + if _release_tag(root) == rows_release: + # The rows come from the committed run payload; the release asset is + # a different file carrying the same US payload, pinned by the + # manifest. + run_payload = run_payload_path(_in(root, RUN_DIR)) + assert meta["run_payload_sha256"] == _sha256_file(run_payload) + manifest = _load_json(_in(root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) + assert ( + meta["release_payload_sha256"] + == manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["sha256"] + ) assert meta["pathways"] == PATHWAYS_0930_PATH.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix() assert meta["pathways_sha256"] == _sha256_file(PATHWAYS_0930_PATH) assert meta["rows"] == len(rows) @@ -727,19 +829,11 @@ def _months(row: dict[str, str], column: str) -> list[float]: def test_bbce_households_note_facts() -> None: - """The October 5 BBCE note: its facts recompute from the frozen snapshot - of its release and the committed pathway recomputation on the - references' engine, and every sentence is pinned beside its evidence.""" - sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) - from bbce_households_20260930 import ( - BBCE_PATTERN, - asset_households, - bbce_households, - build, - ) - - from policybench.paper_results import MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES - + """The October 5 BBCE note: its facts recompute from the snapshot of its + release, as the release's commit holds it, and the committed pathway + recomputation on the references' engine, and every sentence is pinned + beside its evidence. Its closing paragraph, on the later release, is + test_bbce_note_describes_the_later_release's.""" note = _note(BBCE_NOTE) assert note["date"] == "2026-10-05" assert not (NOTES_DIR / f"{BBCE_NOTE_EARLIER}.json").exists() @@ -775,24 +869,58 @@ def test_bbce_households_note_facts() -> None: ] == f"/notes/{BBCE_NOTE}" ) - # The facts recompute only while the note's release is the frozen one. - if not _recompute_against_frozen_snapshot(note): - return - assert note["release"] == "dashboard-data-20260930" - assert note["boardSnapshot"] == CURRENT_RELEASE_SNAPSHOT - payload = _dashboard() - references = _snap_references() - exclusions = _load_json(EXCLUSIONS_PATH)["exclusions"] + # The note keeps release 20260930, and its facts recompute from that + # release's snapshot whatever release is frozen. The later release's + # facts are the closing paragraph's. + assert note["release"] == RELEASE_20260930 + assert note["boardSnapshot"] == SUPERSEDED_RELEASES[note["release"]] + later = _later_facts(note) + assert {k: v for k, v in note["facts"].items() if k not in later} == ( + _bbce_facts_at(note["release"]) + ) + + +# The opening of a closing paragraph that describes a later release. +LATER_RELEASE_OPENING = "A later release, " + + +def _bbce_note_facts(note: dict, root: Path) -> dict: + """The BBCE note's facts, recomputed from the snapshot under ``root`` and + the committed pathway recomputation, with every sentence but the closing + later-release paragraph pinned beside its evidence. Every check holds on + any release whose references, predictions and SNAP exclusions are the + note's release's, so the later release's figures recompute here too.""" + sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + from bbce_households_20260930 import ( + BBCE_PATTERN, + asset_households, + bbce_households, + build, + ) + + from policybench.paper_results import MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES + + links = {entry["label"]: entry["href"] for entry in note["data"]} + blob = "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/" + run_dir = _in(root, RUN_DIR) + references_path = _in(root, REFERENCES_PATH) + payload = _payload_at(root) + references = _snap_references(references_path) + exclusions = _load_json(_in(root, EXCLUSIONS_PATH))["exclusions"] snap_exclusions = { e["scenario_id"]: e for e in exclusions if e["variable"] == "snap" } - reference_meta = _load_json(REFERENCE_META_PATH) + reference_meta = _load_json(_in(root, REFERENCE_META_PATH)) upgrade = next( r for r in reference_meta["revisions"] if r.get("kind") == "engine_upgrade" ) engine = upgrade["engine_version"].removeprefix("policyengine-us ") - scenarios = _scenario_inputs() - text = " ".join(note["paragraphs"]) + scenarios = _scenario_inputs(run_dir) + paragraphs = [ + p for p in note["paragraphs"] if not p.startswith(LATER_RELEASE_OPENING) + ] + assert paragraphs == note["paragraphs"][: len(paragraphs)] + text = " ".join(paragraphs) # Every sentence of the note is pinned in full beside the evidence for it, # so a changed claim or a moved placeholder fails; the check at the end @@ -821,8 +949,8 @@ def pin(*sentences: str) -> None: abs(sum(_months(row, "monthly_snap")) - float(row["snap_recomputed"])) < 0.01 ) - assert pathway_meta["reference_csv_sha256"] == _sha256_file(REFERENCES_PATH) - assert pathway_meta["scenarios_sha256"] == _sha256_file(RUN_DIR / "scenarios.csv") + assert pathway_meta["reference_csv_sha256"] == _sha256_file(references_path) + assert pathway_meta["scenarios_sha256"] == _sha256_file(run_dir / "scenarios.csv") assert ( pathway_meta["fix_module"] == "reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py" ) @@ -865,6 +993,7 @@ def pin(*sentences: str) -> None: built_households, built_patterns, note["release"], + root, ) rows, households, income_patterns = built[BBCE_ROWS_PATH] asset_rows, savings_households, asset_patterns = built[BBCE_ASSET_ROWS_PATH] @@ -1375,8 +1504,8 @@ def explanation(scenario_id: str, model: str) -> str: # Each household is eligible for the non-cash benefit in each month it # qualifies, under its state's gross limit then and over it otherwise, # and receives neither TANF cash nor SSI. - tanf_references = _snap_output_references("tanf") - ssi_references = _snap_output_references("ssi") + tanf_references = _snap_output_references("tanf", references_path) + ssi_references = _snap_output_references("ssi", references_path) for row in income_group: scenario_id = row["scenario_id"] months = eligible_months[scenario_id] @@ -2222,7 +2351,7 @@ def bbce_mentions(model: str) -> int: + farm_rent_correction + " " + farm_rent_engine - ) in note["paragraphs"][-1] + ) in next(p for p in paragraphs if p.startswith("This note corrects ")) # What the September 3 note said about receipt and the asset test, and # the four states it named. sept3_states = ["Connecticut", "Michigan", "Texas", "Wisconsin"] @@ -2438,7 +2567,7 @@ def bbce_mentions(model: str) -> int: "assumedHours": int(assumed_hours.group(1)), "bbceAssetLimitTx": _whole_or_cents(texas_asset_limit), } - assert note["facts"] == derived + return derived @pytest.mark.slow @@ -2733,10 +2862,9 @@ def test_snap_pathways_20260922_regenerates() -> None: ADDED_MODELS = ("claude-sonnet-5.5", "grok-4.7", "deepseek-v4.1-flash") # Release dashboard-data-20260929 was frozen by the merge of #182. Its note's # facts are recomputed from the snapshot that commit holds, read from git, so -# they stay checked against their own release after a later one is frozen. +# they stay checked against their own release after a later one is frozen +# (RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT, with the other releases' commits, is above). RELEASE_20260929 = "dashboard-data-20260929" -RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT = "d616e67c33b6f80dabf5cb7329f069f9a1de069d" -SNAPSHOT_DIR = ROOT / "paper/snapshot/20260501" SERVING_CONFIG_PATH = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "model_serving_config.json" UPGRADE_README = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28/README.md" UPGRADE_CLUSTERS = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28/clusters.json" @@ -2796,44 +2924,19 @@ def test_snap_pathways_20260922_regenerates() -> None: } -@cache def _snapshot_20260929_root() -> Path: """A scratch tree holding paper/snapshot/20260501 exactly as - RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT has it, removed when the session exits.""" - import atexit - import shutil - import subprocess - import tempfile - - def git(*args: str) -> bytes: - shown = subprocess.run(["git", "-C", str(ROOT), *args], capture_output=True) - assert shown.returncode == 0, ( - f"release 20260929's snapshot needs git history at " - f"{RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT[:8]}; fetch full history. " - + shown.stderr.decode() - ) - return shown.stdout - - snapshot = SNAPSHOT_DIR.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix() - listed = git("ls-tree", "-r", "--name-only", RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT, snapshot) - root = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="policybench-release-20260929-")) - atexit.register(shutil.rmtree, root, ignore_errors=True) - for name in listed.decode().splitlines(): - target = root / name - target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) - target.write_bytes(git("show", f"{RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT}:{name}")) - return root + RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT has it.""" + return _snapshot_root(RELEASE_20260929_COMMIT) def _at_20260929(path: Path) -> Path: """A snapshot file as release 20260929's commit holds it.""" - assert path.is_relative_to(SNAPSHOT_DIR), path - return _snapshot_20260929_root() / path.relative_to(ROOT) + return _in(_snapshot_20260929_root(), path) -@cache def _dashboard_20260929() -> dict: - return read_run_payload(_at_20260929(RUN_DIR)) + return _payload_at(_snapshot_20260929_root()) def _release_20260929_tag() -> str: @@ -3699,3 +3802,881 @@ def test_bbce_rows_20260929_regenerate() -> None: meta["release_payload_sha256"] == manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["sha256"] ) + + +# ----- Release dashboard-data-20261006 -------------------------------------- + +RELEASE_20261006 = "dashboard-data-20261006" +EXCLUSIONS_NOTE = "2026-10-06-policybench-stops-scoring-eight-tax-outputs" +# The rulings of 2026-10-05 the release applies, and the audits behind them. +RELEASE_20261006_SPEC = ROOT / "docs/release_20261006/spec.json" +SALT_AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05" +PART_B_AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b" +PAYROLL_AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll" +MEDICAID_031_AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicaid-031-annotations" +FEDERAL_INCOME_TAX = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +STATE_INCOME_TAX = "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" +# The unlisted inputs the eight records name, by the words they open with. +SALT_INPUT = "state income tax withheld or paid during 2026" +PART_B_INPUT = "Medicare enrollment and a Medicare Part B premium paid during 2026" +PAYROLL_INPUT = ( + "whether the employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or " + "disability premium that the law lets it deduct but does not require" +) +# The words NotesContent.tsx renders for a `{key:words}` placeholder. +NUMBER_WORDS = ( + "zero", + "one", + "two", + "three", + "four", + "five", + "six", + "seven", + "eight", + "nine", +) + + +def _no_tools_exact(payload: dict) -> dict[str, float]: + return { + row["model"]: row["exact"] + for row in payload["modelStats"] + if row["condition"] == "no_tools" + } + + +def _new_exclusions() -> list[dict]: + """The records release 20261006 adds to release 20260930's, in the + record's order. Every earlier record is kept.""" + then = _load_json(_in(_release_root(RELEASE_20260930), EXCLUSIONS_PATH)) + now = _load_json(_in(_release_root(RELEASE_20261006), EXCLUSIONS_PATH)) + earlier = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in then["exclusions"]} + assert earlier <= {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in now["exclusions"]} + return [ + e for e in now["exclusions"] if (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) not in earlier + ] + + +def _readme(path: Path) -> str: + return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", (path / "README.md").read_text()) + + +def _list_with_and(items: list[str]) -> str: + """Items joined with a serial comma, as the October 6 note writes lists.""" + if len(items) == 1: + return items[0] + if len(items) == 2: + return f"{items[0]} and {items[1]}" + return ", ".join(items[:-1]) + ", and " + items[-1] + + +def _release_20261006_facts() -> dict: + """The October 6 release note's facts, recomputed from release 20261006's + snapshot and records, and from release 20260930's at its commit.""" + from policybench.paper_results import MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES + + now_root = _release_root(RELEASE_20261006) + then_root = _release_root(RELEASE_20260930) + now, then = _payload_at(now_root), _payload_at(then_root) + new = _new_exclusions() + by_key = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in new} + states = { + e["scenario_id"]: now["scenarios"][e["scenario_id"]]["state"] for e in new + } + federal = [e for e in new if e["variable"] == FEDERAL_INCOME_TAX] + state_tax = [e for e in new if e["variable"] == STATE_INCOME_TAX] + payroll = [e for e in new if e["variable"] == "payroll_tax"] + assert len(federal) + len(state_tax) + len(payroll) == len(new) + + def cents(value: float) -> int | str: + return _whole_or_cents(round(value, 2)) + + def matches(record: dict, value: float) -> list[str]: + cell = now["scenarioPredictions"][record["scenario_id"]][record["variable"]] + return sorted( + m for m, e in cell.items() if _matches(e.get("prediction"), value) + ) + + board = [r for r in now["modelStats"] if r["condition"] == "no_tools"] + previous_board = [r for r in then["modelStats"] if r["condition"] == "no_tools"] + after, before = _no_tools_exact(now), _no_tools_exact(then) + risers = _models_moving_up(before, after) + exclusions = _load_json(_in(now_root, EXCLUSIONS_PATH))["exclusions"] + classification = _load_json(PAYROLL_AUDIT / "program_classification.json") + payroll_ids = {e["scenario_id"] for e in payroll} + optional = [ + p + for p in classification["programs"] + if p["classification"] == "optional_employer_pass_through" + and set(p["benchmark_outputs"]) & payroll_ids + ] + excluded_keys = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in exclusions} + mandatory = sorted( + { + scenario_id + for p in classification["programs"] + if p["classification"] == "mandatory_employee_withholding" + for scenario_id in p["benchmark_outputs"] + if (scenario_id, "payroll_tax") not in excluded_keys + } + ) + window = _load_json(_in(now_root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json"))[ + "model_response_date" + ] + previous_window = _load_json(_in(then_root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json"))[ + "model_response_date" + ] + start, end = window.split(" to ") + previous_start, previous_end = previous_window.split(" to ") + assert previous_start == start + (engine,) = {e["engine_version"].removeprefix("policyengine-us ") for e in new} + part_b = re.search( + r"the 2026 standard premium of \$202\.90 a month, \$([\d,]+\.\d\d)", + by_key[("scenario_114", STATE_INCOME_TAX)]["alternative_reading"], + ) + assert part_b is not None + engine_values = _load_json(MEDICAID_031_AUDIT / "verification/engine_values.json") + parameters = engine_values["parameters"] + derived = { + "newExclusions": len(new), + "newHouseholds": len(states), + "scoredOutputs": board[0]["n"], + "totalOutputs": sum(1 for _ in open(_in(now_root, REFERENCES_PATH))) - 1, + "previousScoredOutputs": previous_board[0]["n"], + "excluded": len(exclusions), + "federalOutputs": len(federal), + "engineVersion": engine, + "va114Age": _person( + _scenario_inputs(_in(now_root, RUN_DIR))["scenario_114"], "head" + )["age"], + "partBPremium": part_b.group(1), + "payrollOutputs": len(payroll), + "optionalPrograms": _list_with_and([p["program"] for p in optional]), + "mandatoryScored": len(mandatory), + "mandatoryStates": _list_with_and( + sorted({STATE_NAMES[now["scenarios"][s]["state"]] for s in mandatory}) + ), + "incomeTaxOutputs": len(federal) + len(state_tax), + "payrollHits": sum(len(matches(e, e["frozen_value"])) for e in payroll), + "payrollAltHits": sum(len(matches(e, e["alternative_value"])) for e in payroll), + "riseMin": round(min(after[m] - before[m] for m in after), 2), + "riseMax": round(max(after[m] - before[m] for m in after), 2), + "solExact": _display_one_decimal(after["gpt-6-sol"]), + "opusExact": _display_one_decimal(after["claude-opus-5.5"]), + "sol56Exact": _display_one_decimal(after["gpt-5.6-sol"]), + "sonnetExact": _display_one_decimal(after["claude-sonnet-5.5"]), + "lunaExact": _display_one_decimal(after["gpt-6-luna"]), + "responseStart": _month_day(start), + "responseEnd": _month_day(end), + "previousResponseEnd": _month_day(previous_end), + "medicaidDisregard": int( + parameters["senior_or_disabled.income.disregard.individual[CA] (monthly)"] + ), + "ssiExclusion": int(parameters["ssa.ssi.income.exclusions.general (monthly)"]), + } + for record in federal: + number = record["scenario_id"].removeprefix("scenario_") + derived[f"fed{number}Alt"] = cents(record["alternative_value"]) + derived[f"fed{number}Ref"] = cents(record["frozen_value"]) + (virginia,) = state_tax + number = virginia["scenario_id"].removeprefix("scenario_") + derived[f"va{number}Alt"] = cents(virginia["alternative_value"]) + derived[f"va{number}Ref"] = cents(virginia["frozen_value"]) + for record in payroll: + state = states[record["scenario_id"]].lower() + derived[f"{state}Alt"] = cents(record["alternative_value"]) + derived[f"{state}Ref"] = cents(record["frozen_value"]) + derived[f"{state}Hits"] = len(matches(record, record["frozen_value"])) + # The first riser is Claude Sonnet 5.5, which the note names; the others + # are named from the facts. + (first, first_passed), *others = risers + assert (first, first_passed) == ("claude-sonnet-5.5", ["gpt-6-luna"]) + for ordinal, (riser, passed) in zip(("Two", "Three", "Four"), others, strict=True): + derived[f"riser{ordinal}"] = MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES[riser] + derived[f"riser{ordinal}Passed"] = _and( + [MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES[m] for m in passed] + ) + return derived + + +def test_release_20261006_note() -> None: + """The October 6 release note: its facts recompute from release 20261006's + snapshot and records and from release 20260930's at its commit, every + sentence is pinned beside the evidence for it, and every link resolves.""" + from policybench.paper_results import MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES + + note = _note(EXCLUSIONS_NOTE) + facts = note["facts"] + assert note["release"] == RELEASE_20261006 + assert facts == _release_20261006_facts() + text = " ".join(note["paragraphs"]) + pinned: list[str] = [] + + def pin(*sentences: str) -> None: + for sentence in sentences: + assert text.count(sentence) == 1, sentence + pinned.append(sentence) + + now_root = _release_root(RELEASE_20261006) + then_root = _release_root(RELEASE_20260930) + now, then = _payload_at(now_root), _payload_at(then_root) + spec = _load_json(RELEASE_20261006_SPEC) + new = _new_exclusions() + by_key = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in new} + states = {s: now["scenarios"][s]["state"] for s, _ in by_key} + names = {s: STATE_NAMES[state] for s, state in states.items()} + scenarios = _scenario_inputs(_in(now_root, RUN_DIR)) + + # The release: the rulings' eight records, decided that day on the + # references' engine, on the same references, predictions and board. + assert spec["release_tag"] == note["release"] + assert spec["base_tag"] == RELEASE_20260930 + assert spec["base_commit"] == RELEASE_20260930_COMMIT + assert note["release"] == "dashboard-data-" + note["date"].replace("-", "") + assert sorted(by_key) == sorted( + tuple(output) + for proposal in spec["proposals"] + for output in proposal["outputs"] + ) + reference_meta = _load_json(_in(now_root, REFERENCE_META_PATH)) + engine = reference_meta["policyengine_bundles"]["us"]["model_version"] + for record in new: + assert record["decided_on"] == spec["decided_on"] + assert record["reason_code"] == "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input" + assert record["engine_version"] == f"policyengine-us {engine}" + for name in (REFERENCES_PATH, PREDICTIONS_PATH): + assert _sha256_file(_in(now_root, name)) == _sha256_file(_in(then_root, name)) + assert set(_no_tools_exact(now)) == set(_no_tools_exact(then)) + for root in (now_root, then_root): + manifest = _load_json(_in(root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) + assert manifest["snapshot_date"] == note["boardSnapshot"] + references = { + (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]): float(row["value"]) + for row in _read_csv(_in(now_root, REFERENCES_PATH)) + } + for key, record in by_key.items(): + assert record["frozen_value"] == references[key] + for entry in now["scenarioPredictions"][key[0]][key[1]].values(): + assert entry["groundTruth"] == record["frozen_value"] + assert entry["scored"] is False + for entry in then["scenarioPredictions"][key[0]][key[1]].values(): + assert entry["scored"] is True + # The exclusion rule the records apply. + rule = _load_json(_in(now_root, EXCLUSIONS_PATH))["rule"] + assert rule.startswith( + "An output is excluded from scoring for every model when its reference " + "depends on an input or definition that the certified household data " + "never carried and the prompt therefore never stated" + ) + + # Which outputs, in which households. + federal = [k for k in by_key if k[1] == FEDERAL_INCOME_TAX] + state_tax = [k for k in by_key if k[1] == STATE_INCOME_TAX] + payroll = [k for k in by_key if k[1] == "payroll_tax"] + federal_ids = [s for s, _ in sorted(federal)] + payroll_ids = [s for s, _ in sorted(payroll)] + assert [states[s] for s in federal_ids] == ["CA", "MA", "VA"] + assert state_tax == [("scenario_114", STATE_INCOME_TAX)] + assert states["scenario_114"] == "VA" + shared = [s for s in payroll_ids if s in federal_ids] + payroll_others = [names[s] for s in payroll_ids if s not in federal_ids] + assert [names[s] for s in shared] == ["Massachusetts"] + title_word = NUMBER_WORDS[facts["newExclusions"]] + assert note["title"] == ( + f"PolicyBench stops scoring {title_word} tax outputs whose references turn " + "on facts the prompts never state" + ) + assert note["slug"] == ( + f"{note['date']}-policybench-stops-scoring-{title_word}-tax-outputs" + ) + pin( + "PolicyBench stops scoring {newExclusions:words} tax outputs, in " + "{newHouseholds:words} households, whose references turn on facts the " + "prompts never state.", + "The {newExclusions:words} are federal income tax for households in " + f"{_list_with_and([names[s] for s in federal_ids])}; the " + f"{names['scenario_114']} household's state income tax; and payroll tax " + f"for the {names[shared[0]]} household and households in " + f"{_list_with_and(payroll_others)}.", + "Every model is now scored on {scoredOutputs} of its {totalOutputs} " + "requested outputs, down from {previousScoredOutputs}, and PolicyBench " + "excludes {excluded}.", + ) + assert facts["scoredOutputs"] + facts["excluded"] == facts["totalOutputs"] + assert facts["previousScoredOutputs"] - facts["scoredOutputs"] == len(new) + + # The state income tax in SALT: the records, and the audit's statement + # of the engine's mechanism and of the law. + salt = _readme(SALT_AUDIT) + assert ( + "These files hold for policyengine-us 2.15.17, the version that built the " + "published references" in salt + ) + assert ( + "Under 26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3) and (b)(5), a household deducts the state " + "income tax it paid during the year" + ) in salt + for key in federal: + record = by_key[key] + state = names[key[0]] + reading = record["alternative_reading"] + assert record["unlisted_input"].startswith(SALT_INPUT) + assert "a formula estimate on federal AGI" in record["unlisted_input"] + assert reading.startswith( + "The prompt lists no state income tax withheld or paid during 2026. " + ) + assert ( + "The reference fills the state income tax part of the federal state " + "and local tax deduction (26 U.S.C. 164(a)(3), (b)(5)) with " + f"policyengine-us's formula estimate of {state} income tax withheld" + ) in reading + assert ( + f"Read as the household paying its 2026 {state} income tax during the " + "year, the deduction takes that liability and the output is the " + "alternative value." + ) in reading + assert "the household itemizes under both" in record["note"] + for prompt in now["scenarios"][key[0]]["prompt"].values(): + assert not re.search( + r"withh|income tax", _household_block(prompt), re.IGNORECASE + ) + pin( + "The {federalOutputs:words} federal outputs depend on the state income " + "tax each household paid during 2026, which the federal deduction for " + "state and local taxes counts and no prompt lists.", + "policyengine-us {engineVersion}, which built the references, fills that " + "amount with its own estimate of state income tax withheld, a formula on " + "federal adjusted gross income.", + "If each household paid its 2026 state income tax as the engine computes " + "it, the outputs are ${fed022Alt} in California, ${fed081Alt} in " + "Massachusetts, and ${fed114Alt} in Virginia, against references of " + "${fed022Ref}, ${fed081Ref}, and ${fed114Ref}.", + ) + assert [names[s] for s in federal_ids] == [ + "California", + "Massachusetts", + "Virginia", + ] + + # The Medicare Part B premium in the Virginia household. + virginia = by_key[("scenario_114", STATE_INCOME_TAX)] + virginia_federal = by_key[("scenario_114", FEDERAL_INCOME_TAX)] + head = _person(scenarios["scenario_114"], "head") + assert head["age"] == facts["va114Age"] >= 65 + assert virginia["unlisted_input"].startswith(PART_B_INPUT) + assert ( + "policyengine-us treats every Medicare-eligible person as enrolled" + in virginia["unlisted_input"] + ) + reading = virginia["alternative_reading"] + assert reading.startswith( + "The prompt lists no Medicare enrollment and no Medicare Part B premium" + ) + assert ( + f"policyengine-us treats the head (age {head['age']}, so Medicare-eligible) " + "as enrolled because takes_up_medicare_if_eligible defaults to true" + ) in reading + assert "The household itemizes" in reading + assert ( + "Virginia's itemized deductions, which start from the federal itemized " + "deductions (va_itemized_deductions), carry it too." + ) in reading + assert ( + f"Read with no Part B premium paid, the deduction falls by " + f"${facts['partBPremium']} and the output is the alternative value." + ) in reading + # The premium is $202.90 a month for 2026, as the engine models it for + # scenario_031's head too. + assert facts["partBPremium"] == f"{12 * 202.90:,.2f}" + medicaid_values = _load_json(MEDICAID_031_AUDIT / "verification/engine_values.json") + assert ( + f"{medicaid_values['readings']['modeled']['medicare_part_b_premium']:,.2f}" + == facts["partBPremium"] + ) + # Without the premium, both tax outputs are higher, and the federal + # record names the premium beside the state income tax in SALT. + assert virginia["alternative_value"] > virginia["frozen_value"] + assert virginia_federal["unlisted_input"].startswith(SALT_INPUT) + assert "; also " + PART_B_INPUT in virginia_federal["unlisted_input"] + without_premium = re.search( + r"Without it the output is \$([\d,]+\.\d\d) under the withholding estimate", + virginia_federal["note"], + ) + assert without_premium is not None + assert ( + float(without_premium.group(1).replace(",", "")) + > (virginia_federal["frozen_value"]) + ) + for prompt in now["scenarios"]["scenario_114"]["prompt"].values(): + assert not re.search( + r"medicare|part b|premium", _household_block(prompt), re.IGNORECASE + ) + pin( + "The Virginia household's head is {va114Age}, and the prompt lists no " + "Medicare enrollment or premium.", + "policyengine-us treats everyone eligible for Medicare as enrolled and " + "counts the standard Part B premium, ${partBPremium} for 2026, as a " + "medical expense.", + "The household itemizes, and Virginia's itemized deductions start from " + "the federal ones, so the premium lowers its Virginia income tax: without " + "it, that output is ${va114Alt} rather than the reference's ${va114Ref}.", + "The premium lowers the household's federal income tax too, and that " + "output's exclusion record names both unstated facts.", + ) + + # The payroll outputs: the programs, classified from primary law, and the + # records' readings. + classification = _load_json(PAYROLL_AUDIT / "program_classification.json") + assert classification["test"].startswith( + "Who owes the contribution under the statute. " + "mandatory_employee_withholding: the statute puts the contribution on the " + "worker and requires the employer to withhold it." + ) + payroll_readme = _readme(PAYROLL_AUDIT) + assert ( + "find that the premium is the employer's and that the law requires no " + "amount of the employee: the employee pays only what the employer chooses " + "to deduct, from $0 up to a cap. The frozen references count the cap." + ) in payroll_readme + optional = [ + p + for p in classification["programs"] + if p["classification"] == "optional_employer_pass_through" + and set(p["benchmark_outputs"]) & set(payroll_ids) + ] + assert sorted(s for p in optional for s in p["benchmark_outputs"]) == payroll_ids + assert [p["key"] for p in optional] == [states[s] for s in payroll_ids] + payroll_line = ( + "- payroll_tax: annual household employee-side payroll tax: employee " + "Social Security tax, employee Medicare tax, Additional Medicare Tax, and " + "mandatory employee state payroll taxes." + ) + for key in payroll: + record = by_key[key] + assert record["unlisted_input"] == PAYROLL_INPUT + ( + ", which decides whether that share is a mandatory employee state " + "payroll tax" + ) + # Massachusetts's record names the published rates: a literal reading + # of Acts 2026 c. 101 would let the employer deduct more in 2026 + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll/README.md). + largest = ( + "counts the largest share Massachusetts's published 2026 rates let " + "the employer deduct" + if key[0] == "scenario_081" + else "counts the largest share the employer may deduct" + ) + assert largest in record["alternative_reading"] + assert ( + "Read as the amount the law requires of the employee whatever the " + "employer does, which is $0, the output is employee federal payroll " + "tax alone: the alternative value" + ) in record["alternative_reading"] + for prompt in now["scenarios"][key[0]]["prompt"].values(): + assert payroll_line in prompt + # The payroll outputs PolicyBench still scores with a state contribution + # the law requires of the worker; New Jersey's is excluded for an engine + # defect. + excluded_keys = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) + for e in _load_json(_in(now_root, EXCLUSIONS_PATH))["exclusions"] + } + mandatory = [ + p + for p in classification["programs"] + if p["classification"] == "mandatory_employee_withholding" + ] + unscored = [ + s + for p in mandatory + for s in p["benchmark_outputs"] + if (s, "payroll_tax") in excluded_keys + ] + assert unscored == ["scenario_008"] + assert now["scenarios"]["scenario_008"]["state"] == "NJ" + pin( + "The {payrollOutputs:words} payroll outputs count an employee share of a " + "state paid-leave or disability premium: {optionalPrograms}.", + "In each of these states the premium is the employer's, and the employer " + "may deduct up to a set share of it from wages but need not, so the law " + "requires no amount of the employee.", + "The prompts ask for mandatory employee state payroll taxes, and the " + "references count the largest share each state's published 2026 rates let " + "the employer deduct, without the prompts saying whether it does.", + "Without that share, the outputs are ${mnAlt} in Minnesota, ${coAlt} in " + "Colorado, ${maAlt} in Massachusetts, and ${nyAlt} in New York, against " + "references of ${mnRef}, ${coRef}, ${maRef}, and ${nyRef}.", + "PolicyBench still scores the payroll outputs of {mandatoryScored:words} " + "households in {mandatoryStates}, where the law puts the contribution on " + "the worker and requires the employer to withhold it.", + ) + assert [names[s] for s in payroll_ids] == [ + "Minnesota", + "Colorado", + "Massachusetts", + "New York", + ] + + # The answers on the eight outputs. A model's answer matches within $1, + # the payload's own exact score. + for key, record in by_key.items(): + cell = now["scenarioPredictions"][key[0]][key[1]] + assert len(cell) == len(_no_tools_exact(now)) + frozen = { + m + for m, e in cell.items() + if _matches(e.get("prediction"), record["frozen_value"]) + } + alternative = { + m + for m, e in cell.items() + if _matches(e.get("prediction"), record["alternative_value"]) + } + assert frozen == {m for m, e in cell.items() if e["exact"] == 100} + assert not frozen & alternative + if key[1] != "payroll_tax": + assert not frozen, key + pin( + "No model's answer is within $1 of the reference on any of the " + "{incomeTaxOutputs:words} income tax outputs.", + "On the {payrollOutputs:words} payroll outputs, {payrollHits} answers match " + "the reference within $1: {mnHits:words} for Minnesota, {coHits} for " + "Colorado, {maHits:words} for Massachusetts, and {nyHits:words} for New " + "York.", + "Another {payrollAltHits} match the amount without the state share.", + ) + assert facts["payrollHits"] == sum( + facts[f"{states[s].lower()}Hits"] for s in payroll_ids + ) + + # The board: every model rises; the order at the top, and every pair whose + # order changes. + after, before = _no_tools_exact(now), _no_tools_exact(then) + board = [r for r in now["modelStats"] if r["condition"] == "no_tools"] + previous_board = [r for r in then["modelStats"] if r["condition"] == "no_tools"] + assert all(after[m] > before[m] for m in after) + + def rank_now(model: str) -> int: + return _rank(after[model], board) + + def rank_then(model: str) -> int: + return _rank(before[model], previous_board) + + for model, place in (("gpt-6-sol", 1), ("claude-opus-5.5", 2), ("gpt-5.6-sol", 3)): + assert rank_now(model) == rank_then(model) == place + assert (rank_then("gpt-6-luna"), rank_then("claude-sonnet-5.5")) == (4, 5) + assert (rank_now("claude-sonnet-5.5"), rank_now("gpt-6-luna")) == (4, 5) + assert ORDINALS[rank_now("claude-sonnet-5.5")] == "fourth" + risers = _models_moving_up(before, after) + assert len(risers) == 4 + for riser, passed in risers: + # Each riser passes one model, the one just above it before. + assert len(passed) == 1 + assert rank_now(riser) == rank_then(passed[0]) + assert rank_now(passed[0]) == rank_then(riser) + pin( + # The headline the board ranks by, as the September 29 note states it. + "Every model's exact rate, its share of answers within $1 weighted by " + "household impact, rises by {riseMin} to {riseMax} points.", + "GPT-6 Sol still leads at {solExact}%, ahead of Claude Opus 5.5 " + "({opusExact}%) and GPT-5.6 Sol ({sol56Exact}%).", + "Claude Sonnet 5.5 ({sonnetExact}%) passes GPT-6 Luna ({lunaExact}%) for " + "fourth.", + "Further down, {riserTwo} moves above {riserTwoPassed}, {riserThree} above " + "{riserThreePassed}, and {riserFour} above {riserFourPassed}.", + "Every other pair keeps its order.", + ) + + # The next prompt contract: its reviewed immutable source, the three + # facts the records name as unlisted, and the gates for a later run. + # This evidence was retrieved from PR 173's head and verified against + # the complete document's SHA256 before it was recorded in the note. + links = {entry["label"]: entry["href"] for entry in note["data"]} + assert links["Draft prompt contract (policybench#173)"] == ( + "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/pull/173" + ) + # The draft adds policybench.prompt_contract_v2, which this tree lacks. + assert not (ROOT / "policybench/prompt_contract_v2.py").exists() + evidence = note["v2ContractEvidence"] + assert evidence["pullRequest"] == 173 + assert evidence["commit"] == "41061fcaa1727a284e279fb763728dc3b36b8cbf" + assert evidence["path"] == "docs/prompt_contract_v2.md" + assert evidence["sha256"] == ( + "c532a028b562a7358480ffd872501a70f6d04842df640747983cc667565a8dc6" + ) + assert evidence["version"] == "2.1.0" + assert links["Draft v2 contract conventions (reviewed source)"] == ( + "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/" + f"{evidence['commit']}/{evidence['path']}" + "#october-5-calculation-conventions" + ) + assert evidence["excerpts"] == { + "activation": ( + "`policybench.prompt_contract_v2` adds an **opt-in, unactivated " + "household-fact\ncontract**" + ), + "salt": ( + "For each supplied tax unit, state the annual input\n" + "`state_withheld_income_tax`, or follow the declared model's per-state " + "AGI-based\nwithholding estimate and treat that estimate as paid " + "during the year." + ), + "medicareEnrollment": ( + "Every person's text states `takes_up_medicare_if_eligible`: enrollment " + "includes\nPart B and is assumed if eligible unless a supplied " + "boolean overrides it." + ), + "medicarePremium": ( + "The annual enrollee payment `medicare_part_b_premium` is\n" + "employee after-tax spending. When absent, it follows the declared " + "model's\nstandard premium plus IRMAA, net of Medicare Savings " + "Program support, and is\npaid only while enrolled." + ), + "employerChoice": ( + "For each person in MN Paid Leave, CO FAMLI, MA PFML, NY PFL/DBL, " + "DE Paid Leave,\nME PFML, VT child-care contribution, or WA PFML, " + "the prompt states whether\nthe employer withholds the employee share." + ), + "payrollScope": ( + "The v2 payroll definition covers all listed people's employee-side " + "payroll\ntax, including dependent wages, mandatory state contributions, " + "and optional\nemployee shares that the employer chooses to withhold " + "under the stated\nconvention." + ), + "validation": ( + "Before activation, adapt the reference builder to the stated " + "conventions and\nrun the complete sweep" + ), + } + assert {by_key[k]["unlisted_input"].split(",")[0] for k in federal} == {SALT_INPUT} + assert ( + "state in the payroll output's definition how these shares count, so a " + "fresh run can score such households again" + ) in payroll_readme + pin( + "PolicyBench's next prompt contract remains an unactivated draft " + "(PolicyEngine/policybench#173).", + "It states the state income tax paid for each tax unit or a named " + "convention for estimating withholding; each person's Medicare Part B " + "enrollment and annual net premium; and whether each person's employer " + "withholds the employee share of state paid-leave or disability premiums.", + "Its payroll output definition counts optional employee shares only " + "when the employer withholds them.", + "A later run can score these outputs after its reference builder and " + "a fresh input sweep validate the stated conventions.", + ) + assert ( + "whether its employer deducts the employee share of a state paid-leave or " + "disability premium" + ) in PAYROLL_INPUT.replace("the employer", "its employer") + + # The corrections. The model response window ends on the UTC date of the + # last answer, which release 20260930 dated with its own snapshot date. + import pandas as pd + + sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + from freeze_snapshot import model_response_window + + manifest = _load_json(_in(now_root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) + previous_manifest = _load_json(_in(then_root, SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json")) + completed = pd.read_csv( + _in(now_root, PREDICTIONS_PATH), + usecols=["request_completed_at"], + dtype="float64", + float_precision="round_trip", + )["request_completed_at"].dropna() + last_answer = datetime.fromtimestamp(completed.max(), tz=timezone.utc).date() + start = manifest["model_response_date"].split(" to ")[0] + assert manifest["model_response_date"] == (f"{start} to {last_answer.isoformat()}") + assert manifest["model_response_date"] == model_response_window( + _in(now_root, PREDICTIONS_PATH), spec["model_response_start"] + ) + previous_end = previous_manifest["model_response_date"].split(" to ")[1] + assert previous_end == previous_manifest["snapshot_date"] > last_answer.isoformat() + assert RELEASE_20260930.endswith(previous_end.replace("-", "")) + assert last_answer.year == date.fromisoformat(start).year == 2026 + # The paper page states the same window. + assert _load_json(ROOT / "app/src/paperSnapshot.json")["responseWindow"] == ( + f"{facts['responseStart']} and {facts['responseEnd']}, {last_answer.year}" + ) + # scenario_031's Medicaid text: the ledger's rewrites are the payload's + # text now and were the previous release's, on a cell whose scores are + # the same. + medicaid = ("scenario_031", "head_medicaid_eligible") + assert now["scenarios"][medicaid[0]]["state"] == "CA" + assert _person(scenarios[medicaid[0]], "head")["age"] >= 65 + cell_now = now["scenarioPredictions"][medicaid[0]][medicaid[1]] + cell_then = then["scenarioPredictions"][medicaid[0]][medicaid[1]] + text_fields = {"annotation", "caseAnnotation", "referenceExplanation"} + for model, entry in cell_now.items(): + assert {k: v for k, v in entry.items() if k not in text_fields} == { + k: v for k, v in cell_then[model].items() if k not in text_fields + } + payload_field = { + "case_annotation": "caseAnnotation", + "explanation": "referenceExplanation", + "annotation": "annotation", + } + rewrites = _load_json(MEDICAID_031_AUDIT / "rewrites.json")["rewrites"] + assert len(rewrites) == 45 + for item in rewrites: + assert (item["scenario_id"], item["variable"]) == medicaid + field = payload_field[item["field"]] + # A case-level text rides on every cell that carries the field: the + # annotated rows for the case note, every row for the reference + # explanation. + carried = {m for m, entry in cell_now.items() if field in entry} + assert carried == {m for m, entry in cell_then.items() if field in entry} + models = [item["model"]] if "model" in item else sorted(carried) + assert models + for model in models: + assert cell_now[model][field] == item["new"], (model, field) + assert cell_then[model][field] == item["old"], (model, field) + case_now = next(e for e in cell_now.values() if "caseAnnotation" in e)[ + "caseAnnotation" + ] + case_then = next(e for e in cell_then.values() if "caseAnnotation" in e)[ + "caseAnnotation" + ] + assert ( + "In place of SSI's $20 monthly general income exclusion, the engine applies " + "California's $230 monthly disregard" + ) in case_now + assert ( + "Countable income is gross income minus health insurance premiums, " + "including the Medicare Part B standard premium" + ) in case_then + # The engine's values: the disregard replaces SSI's exclusion and brings + # countable income under the limit, which SSI's exclusion alone does not; + # the premium does not enter it. + summary = medicaid_values["summary"] + assert summary["disregard_annual"] == 12 * facts["medicaidDisregard"] + assert summary["countable_income"] < summary["income_limit"] + assert summary["gross_less_ssi_general_exclusion_only"] > summary["income_limit"] + readings = medicaid_values["readings"] + countable = "medicaid_optional_senior_or_disabled_countable_income" + assert readings["no_part_b"][countable] == readings["modeled"][countable] + assert "It applies California's $230 monthly income disregard instead." in ( + _readme(MEDICAID_031_AUDIT) + ) + pin( + "Two corrections in this release move no score.", + "PolicyBench now reports that it collected model responses from " + "{responseStart} to {responseEnd}, 2026, ending on the UTC date of the " + f"last answer; release {RELEASE_20260930} gave {{previousResponseEnd}}, " + "the date of that release.", + "The audit text for a California household head's Medicaid eligibility " + "now explains the head's income test as the engine applies it: " + "California's ${medicaidDisregard} monthly income disregard, which takes " + "the place of SSI's ${ssiExclusion} general income exclusion, brings " + "countable income under the limit.", + "The earlier text said the engine subtracts a Medicare Part B premium from " + "income, which it does not.", + ) + + # The models the prose names, and no sentence left unpinned. + display = {m: MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES[m] for m in after} + assert _named_models(text, display) == { + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + } + unpinned = text + for sentence in pinned: + unpinned = unpinned.replace(sentence, "", 1) + assert not unpinned.strip(), unpinned + + # The links: each household by description, each record and audit, the + # release and the one before it. + blob = "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/blob/main/" + for href in links.values(): + if href.startswith("/notes/"): + assert (NOTES_DIR / f"{href.removeprefix('/notes/')}.json").is_file() + if href.startswith(blob): + assert (ROOT / href.removeprefix(blob)).is_file(), href + tag = "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/" + assert links["Dashboard data release"] == tag + note["release"] + assert links[f"Previous release {RELEASE_20260930}"] == tag + RELEASE_20260930 + for label, path in ( + ("Exclusion record", EXCLUSIONS_PATH), + ("Developer adjudications", ADJUDICATIONS_PATH), + ("Audit of the state income tax in the federal deduction", SALT_AUDIT), + ("Audit of the Medicare Part B premium", PART_B_AUDIT), + ("Audit of the state payroll contributions", PAYROLL_AUDIT), + ("Correction of the Medicaid audit text", MEDICAID_031_AUDIT), + ): + target = path / "README.md" if path.is_dir() else path + assert links[label] == blob + target.relative_to(ROOT).as_posix() + household_links = { + f"{names['scenario_022']} household (federal income tax)": "scenario_022", + f"{names['scenario_081']} household": "scenario_081", + f"{names['scenario_114']} household": "scenario_114", + f"{names['scenario_032']} household": "scenario_032", + f"{names['scenario_043']} household": "scenario_043", + f"{names['scenario_082']} household": "scenario_082", + "California household head (Medicaid eligibility)": medicaid[0], + } + assert sorted(set(household_links.values()) - {medicaid[0]}) == sorted(states) + for label, scenario_id in household_links.items(): + assert links[label] == f"/?country=us&scenario={scenario_id}#scenarios" + assert not any(re.search(r"scenario_\d", label) for label in links) + assert len(links) == len(note["data"]) == 10 + len(household_links) + + +@cache +def _bbce_facts_at(release: str) -> dict: + """The BBCE note's facts recomputed on ``release``'s snapshot.""" + return _bbce_note_facts(_note(BBCE_NOTE), _release_root(release)) + + +def test_bbce_note_describes_the_later_release() -> None: + """The October 5 BBCE note keeps release 20260930's facts and closes with + the one that moves on release 20261006. Recomputed on release 20261006, + every other fact of the note is the same, and the release changes no + SNAP reference or answer.""" + note = _note(BBCE_NOTE) + assert note["release"] == RELEASE_20260930 + assert note["paragraphs"][-1] == ( + f"{LATER_RELEASE_OPENING}{RELEASE_20261006}, stops scoring " + "{laterExclusions:words} tax outputs and changes no SNAP reference or " + "answer. On it, GPT-6 Luna is #{laterLunaRank} on PolicyBench, below " + "Claude Sonnet 5.5, and every other figure in this note stays the same." + ) + assert not any(RELEASE_20261006 in p for p in note["paragraphs"][:-1]) + links = {entry["label"]: entry["href"] for entry in note["data"]} + assert links[f"Later release {RELEASE_20261006}"] == ( + "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policybench/releases/tag/" + RELEASE_20261006 + ) + later_note = _note(EXCLUSIONS_NOTE) + assert ( + links[f"Release note for {RELEASE_20261006} ({_month_day(later_note['date'])})"] + == f"/notes/{EXCLUSIONS_NOTE}" + ) + + then = _bbce_facts_at(RELEASE_20260930) + later = _bbce_facts_at(RELEASE_20261006) + assert {key for key in then if later[key] != then[key]} == {"lunaRank"} + assert _later_facts(note) == { + "laterExclusions": len(_new_exclusions()), + "laterLunaRank": later["lunaRank"], + } + assert later_note["facts"]["newExclusions"] == len(_new_exclusions()) + # The new tax exclusions are the only change, and none is a SNAP output. + assert not [e for e in _new_exclusions() if e["variable"] == "snap"] + now = _payload_at(_release_root(RELEASE_20261006)) + previous = _payload_at(_release_root(RELEASE_20260930)) + fields = ("prediction", "groundTruth", "scored", "exact", "explanation") + for scenario_id, variables in now["scenarioPredictions"].items(): + for model, entry in variables["snap"].items(): + before = previous["scenarioPredictions"][scenario_id]["snap"][model] + assert {k: entry.get(k) for k in fields} == { + k: before.get(k) for k in fields + }, (scenario_id, model) + # GPT-6 Luna falls one place, below Claude Sonnet 5.5. + board = [r for r in now["modelStats"] if r["condition"] == "no_tools"] + exact = _no_tools_exact(now) + assert later["lunaRank"] == then["lunaRank"] + 1 + assert _rank(exact["claude-sonnet-5.5"], board) == later["lunaRank"] - 1 diff --git a/tests/test_paper_results.py b/tests/test_paper_results.py index 19845485..de2080d8 100644 --- a/tests/test_paper_results.py +++ b/tests/test_paper_results.py @@ -1,8 +1,17 @@ """Checks for data-driven manuscript values.""" +import csv +import functools +import gzip +import io +import json import re +import subprocess +import sys +import tempfile from collections import Counter from copy import deepcopy +from pathlib import Path import pandas as pd import pytest @@ -14,11 +23,15 @@ from policybench.paper_results import ( MODEL_DISPLAY_NAMES, MODEL_RELEASE_DATES, + REVIEW_DATE, + REVIEW_SWEEPS, ROOT, SNAPSHOT_DIR, PaperResults, + partition_review_sweep_moves, r, ) +from policybench.reference_exclusions import load_reference_exclusions def test_frozen_roster_has_46_display_names_and_release_dates(): @@ -73,38 +86,43 @@ def test_app_release_dates_mirror_the_paper_registry(): def test_parse_contract_failure_counts_come_from_frozen_dashboard(): + # Release 20260930's 652 (Kimi K2.6 390, GLM-5.2 133) less the eight on + # the outputs the 2026-10-05 review excluded (seven Kimi K2.6, one GLM-5.2; + # test_the_review_moves_the_paper_counts_by_its_eight_outputs_alone). assert r.parse_contract_failure_counts == Counter( { - "kimi-k2.6": 390, - "glm-5.2": 133, + "kimi-k2.6": 383, + "glm-5.2": 132, "glm-5.3": 71, "kimi-k3": 58, } ) - assert r.parse_contract_failure_count == 652 - assert r.parse_contract_failure_count_fmt == "652" - # 652 of the 46-model board's 88,688 scored answers (0.8% of 20260929's - # 86,760): GPT-6.1 Sol parsed all 1,928. + assert r.parse_contract_failure_count == 644 + assert r.parse_contract_failure_count_fmt == "644" + # 644 of the 46-model board's 88,320 scored answers (46 x 1,920). + assert r.n_canonical_rows == 88_320 assert r.parse_contract_failure_pct_fmt == "0.7" def test_audit_universe_counts_come_from_frozen_rows_and_annotations(): - # Release 20260929's counts plus GPT-6.1 Sol's 88 exact misses. - assert r.audit_annotated_row_count == 7_860 - assert r.audit_annotated_row_count_fmt == "7,860" + # Release 20260930's counts (7,860 annotated, 7,856 misses, 2,107 + # unannotated) less the 333 annotated misses and the 35 exact hits on the + # eight outputs the 2026-10-05 review excluded. + assert r.audit_annotated_row_count == 7_527 + assert r.audit_annotated_row_count_fmt == "7,527" assert r.audit_selection_rule == ("rows whose legacy threshold score is below 1") - assert r.exact_match_miss_count == 7_856 - assert r.exact_match_miss_count_fmt == "7,856" - assert r.annotated_exact_miss_count == 7_856 - assert r.annotated_exact_miss_count_fmt == "7,856" + assert r.exact_match_miss_count == 7_523 + assert r.exact_match_miss_count_fmt == "7,523" + assert r.annotated_exact_miss_count == 7_523 + assert r.annotated_exact_miss_count_fmt == "7,523" assert r.annotated_exact_hit_count == 4 assert r.annotated_exact_hit_count_fmt == "4" - assert r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count == 2_107 - assert r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count_fmt == "2,107" + assert r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count == 2_072 + assert r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count_fmt == "2,072" def test_contract_violations_are_counted_both_ways(): - """652 scored rows never parsed a number (rows on excluded outputs are outside + """644 scored rows never parsed a number (rows on excluded outputs are outside every count); 60 more parsed a number but carry no explanation. The manuscript reports both, not just the first.""" assert dict(r.explanation_missing_counts) == { @@ -113,7 +131,7 @@ def test_contract_violations_are_counted_both_ways(): "claude-haiku-4.5": 1, } assert r.explanation_missing_count_fmt == "60" - assert r.contract_violation_count_fmt == "712" + assert r.contract_violation_count_fmt == "704" assert r.explanation_missing_breakdown_fmt == ( "Grok 4.3 (55), Kimi K2.6 (4), and Claude Haiku 4.5 (1)" ) @@ -330,10 +348,13 @@ def test_joint_credit_table_orders_ties_deterministically(): def test_excluded_outputs_are_outside_the_scored_audit_universe(): - assert r.excluded_output_count == 56 - assert r.excluded_output_phrase == "56 outputs" - assert r.excluded_output_households_phrase == "39 households" - assert r.unlisted_input_exclusion_count == 28 + # Release 20260930's 56 outputs in 39 households plus the 2026-10-05 + # review's eight (in scenario_022, 032, 043, 081, 082 and 114; 022, 081 + # and 082 already had one). + assert r.excluded_output_count == 64 + assert r.excluded_output_phrase == "64 outputs" + assert r.excluded_output_households_phrase == "42 households" + assert r.unlisted_input_exclusion_count == 36 assert r.engine_defect_exclusion_count == 28 assert r.engine_defect_root_cause_count == 11 assert r.snap_engine_defect_exclusion_count == 1 @@ -361,12 +382,29 @@ def test_excluded_outputs_are_outside_the_scored_audit_universe(): ] == 3 ) - assert r.scored_outputs_per_model_fmt == "1,928" + # The 2026-10-05 review's three inputs (the records' own text): the state + # income tax in SALT alone for 022 and 081, with the Part B premium for + # 114's federal output, the Part B premium alone for 114's Virginia + # output, and the employer's deduction for the four payroll outputs. + by_input = r.excluded_outputs_by_input + salt = next(k for k in by_input if k.startswith("state income tax withheld")) + part_b = next(k for k in by_input if k.startswith("Medicare enrollment")) + payroll = next(k for k in by_input if k.startswith("whether the employer deducts")) + assert by_input[salt] == 2 + assert by_input[f"{salt}; also {part_b}"] == 1 + assert by_input[part_b] == 1 + assert by_input[payroll] == 4 + assert r.scored_outputs_per_model_fmt == "1,920" assert r.total_outputs_per_model_fmt == "1,984" - # Release 20260929's 2,065 plus GPT-6.1 Sol's 46 rows on excluded outputs. - assert r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count == 2111 - # Release 20260929's 802 plus GPT-6.1 Sol's 18. - assert r.prompt_ambiguity_row_count == 820 + # Release 20260930's 2,111 rows on excluded outputs plus the 333 annotated + # rows on the review's eight outputs. + assert r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count == 2444 + # Release 20260930's 820 plus the review's 325 relabeled llm_error rows + # (135 SALT, 45 Part B, 145 payroll); its eight parse failures stay. + assert r.prompt_ambiguity_row_count == 1145 + assert ( + r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count - r.excluded_descriptive_row_count == 63 + ) # No scored row carries a descriptive class; every excluded-output row # carries its exclusion's class unless it never parsed. scored_sources = { @@ -385,7 +423,7 @@ def test_excluded_outputs_are_outside_the_scored_audit_universe(): "parse_contract_failure", } for stats in r.model_stats: - assert stats["n"] == 1928 + assert stats["n"] == 1920 def test_engine_upgrade_counts_come_from_the_reference_sidecar(): @@ -412,12 +450,13 @@ def test_engine_upgrade_counts_come_from_the_reference_sidecar(): == 9 ) # Excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: 52 on 1.755.4, - # and on 2.15.17 the three this upgrade added plus the audit's - # (final_actions.json audit_exclusions: scenario_023 head Medicaid). - assert r.excluded_outputs_by_engine_version == {"1.755.4": 52, "2.15.17": 4} + # and on 2.15.17 the three this upgrade added, the audit's + # (final_actions.json audit_exclusions: scenario_023 head Medicaid) and + # the 2026-10-05 review's eight. + assert r.excluded_outputs_by_engine_version == {"1.755.4": 52, "2.15.17": 12} assert r.excluded_outputs_on_previous_engine_count == 52 - assert r.excluded_outputs_on_reference_engine_count == 4 - assert r.excluded_output_count == 56 + assert r.excluded_outputs_on_reference_engine_count == 12 + assert r.excluded_output_count == 64 # Four scored references move beyond the exact-match tolerance: 008 NJ # and 082 NY refundable credits, 013 AZ SNAP and 028 PA reduced-price # meals (a 0/1 flag, so any change counts). @@ -554,3 +593,332 @@ def test_engine_upgrade_partition_is_exact_and_disjoint(revision): moved = abs(change["regenerated"] - change["previous"]) limit = 1 if change["variable"] in _AMOUNT_OUTPUTS else 0 assert (moved > limit) == (name == "scored_changes") + + +# --- The 2026-10-05 review of release dashboard-data-20260930 ----------------- + +# Release dashboard-data-20260930's commit (#187), the base the review read and +# the next release builds on (docs/release_20261006/spec.json). CI checks out +# full history. +BASE_COMMIT = "8b4c0ca146bb6f66deba6ce24009d49d70d92df2" + + +def _git_blob(path: str) -> bytes: + result = subprocess.run( + ["git", "-C", str(ROOT), "show", f"{BASE_COMMIT}:{path}"], + capture_output=True, + ) + assert result.returncode == 0, ( + f"cannot read {path} at {BASE_COMMIT[:12]} (fetch full history): " + f"{result.stderr.decode().strip()}" + ) + return result.stdout + + +@functools.cache +def _release_20260930() -> PaperResults: + """PaperResults over release 20260930's own committed artifacts, read from + git at its commit: manifest, payload, exclusion record and annotations.""" + base = PaperResults() + run = f"paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/{r.us_run_label}" + base.manifest = json.loads(_git_blob("paper/snapshot/20260501/manifest.json")) + base.dashboard = json.loads(gzip.decompress(_git_blob(f"{run}/data.json.gz"))) + with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as scratch: + record = Path(scratch) / "reference_exclusions.json" + record.write_bytes(_git_blob(f"{run}/reference_exclusions.json")) + base.reference_exclusions = load_reference_exclusions(record) + annotation_dir = base.manifest["audit_annotation_artifacts"]["path"] + rows = _git_blob(f"{annotation_dir}/us_audit_row_annotations.csv").decode() + base._audit_rows = list(csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(rows))) + return base + + +def test_release_20260930s_own_counts_rebuild_from_git(): + """The counts these tests pinned for release 20260930, recomputed from its + committed artifacts rather than from the working tree.""" + base = _release_20260930() + assert base.manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["tag"] == ( + "dashboard-data-20260930" + ) + assert base.excluded_output_count == 56 + assert base.excluded_output_households_phrase == "39 households" + assert base.unlisted_input_exclusion_count == 28 + assert base.engine_defect_exclusion_count == 28 + assert base.excluded_outputs_by_engine_version == {"1.755.4": 52, "2.15.17": 4} + assert {row["n"] for row in base.model_stats} == {1928} + assert base.audit_annotated_row_count == 7_860 + assert base.exact_match_miss_count == 7_856 + assert base.annotated_exact_miss_count == 7_856 + assert base.annotated_exact_hit_count == 4 + assert base.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count == 2_107 + assert base.parse_contract_failure_counts == Counter( + {"kimi-k2.6": 390, "glm-5.2": 133, "glm-5.3": 71, "kimi-k3": 58} + ) + assert base.excluded_output_annotation_row_count == 2_111 + assert base.prompt_ambiguity_row_count == 820 + assert base.audit_developer_adjudications["cases"] == 69 + assert base.model_response_date == "2026-06-12 to 2026-09-30" + + +def test_the_review_moves_the_paper_counts_by_its_eight_outputs_alone(): + """Differential: each count the paper renders is release 20260930's, + computed from its own committed files, moved by exactly the rows on the + outputs the review excluded.""" + base = _release_20260930() + review = r.review_exclusion_keys + assert len(review) == 8 + assert r._excluded_output_keys == base._excluded_output_keys | review + assert not base._excluded_output_keys & review + + def on_review(rows): + return [row for row in rows if (row["scenario_id"], row["variable"]) in review] + + # The base scored those rows; the payload keeps them, unscored. + base_rows = on_review(base._scored_prediction_rows) + assert len(base_rows) == 8 * r.n_models + assert all(row["scored"] is False for row in on_review(r._scenario_prediction_rows)) + misses = {r._prediction_row_key(row) for row in base_rows if row["exact"] < 100} + hits_below_full = { + r._prediction_row_key(row) + for row in base_rows + if row["exact"] == 100 and row["boundedScore"] < 100 + } + annotated = {r._prediction_row_key(row) for row in on_review(base._audit_rows)} + assert annotated == misses + + assert r.audit_annotated_row_count == base.audit_annotated_row_count - len( + annotated + ) + assert r.exact_match_miss_count == base.exact_match_miss_count - len(misses) + assert r.annotated_exact_hit_count == base.annotated_exact_hit_count + assert r.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count == ( + base.unannotated_below_full_bounded_score_count - len(hits_below_full) + ) + parse_failures = Counter( + row["model"] + for row in base_rows + if row.get("failureSource") == "parse_contract_failure" + ) + assert r.parse_contract_failure_counts == ( + base.parse_contract_failure_counts - parse_failures + ) + assert sum(parse_failures.values()) == 8 + assert r.excluded_output_annotation_row_count == ( + base.excluded_output_annotation_row_count + len(annotated) + ) + # Every annotated miss on the eight is relabeled to the exclusion's class + # except the answers that never parsed. + assert r.prompt_ambiguity_row_count == ( + base.prompt_ambiguity_row_count + len(annotated) - 8 + ) + assert r.excluded_output_count == base.excluded_output_count + 8 + assert r.unlisted_input_exclusion_count == base.unlisted_input_exclusion_count + 8 + assert r.engine_defect_exclusion_count == base.engine_defect_exclusion_count + assert r.audit_developer_adjudications["cases"] == ( + base.audit_developer_adjudications["cases"] + len(r.review_adjudications) + ) + assert r.n_scored_outputs == base.n_scored_outputs - 8 + + +def test_the_review_sweeps_move_exactly_the_records_the_review_added(): + """The review's records are what its sweeps moved: every output a sweep + moves beyond the tolerance is one of its eight records or was already + excluded, and no still-scored output moves by any amount.""" + assert r.review_date == REVIEW_DATE == "2026-10-05" + assert r.review_sweep_count == len(REVIEW_SWEEPS) == 3 + assert r.review_sweep_count_word == "three" + assert r.review_new_exclusion_count == len(r.review_adjudications) == 8 + assert r.review_new_exclusion_count_word == "eight" + assert r.review_exclusion_engine_version == r.policyengine_us_version + assert set(r.review_newly_excluded_moved_outputs) == r.review_exclusion_keys + assert r.review_sweep_partition["scored_beyond_tolerance"] == [] + assert r.review_sweep_partition["scored_within_tolerance"] == [] + assert r.review_still_scored_moves_phrase == "no output that is still scored" + federal = "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + assert r.review_already_excluded_moved_outputs == [ + ("scenario_078", federal), + ("scenario_120", federal), + ] + assert r.review_already_excluded_moved_count_word == "two" + assert r.review_sweep_moved_outputs("salt_withholding") == [ + ("scenario_022", federal), + ("scenario_078", federal), + ("scenario_081", federal), + ("scenario_114", federal), + ("scenario_120", federal), + ] + assert r.review_sweep_moved_count_word("salt_withholding") == "five" + assert r.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word("salt_withholding") == "three" + assert r.review_sweep_already_excluded_count_word("salt_withholding") == "two" + assert r.review_sweep_moved_outputs("medicare_part_b") == [ + ("scenario_114", federal), + ("scenario_114", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ] + assert r.review_sweep_moved_household_count_word("medicare_part_b") == "one" + assert r.review_sweep_moved_outputs("payroll_optional_shares") == [ + (f"scenario_{n}", "payroll_tax") for n in ("032", "043", "081", "082") + ] + assert r.review_sweep_moved_count_word("payroll_optional_shares") == "four" + assert r.review_sweep_newly_excluded_count_word("payroll_optional_shares") == ( + "four" + ) + + +def test_the_review_swept_release_20260930s_references_and_exclusions(): + """Each sweep covers every output, carries release 20260930's exclusions + and references, and its baseline reproduces every reference that release + scored (the paper's count).""" + base = _release_20260930() + assert r.excluded_before_review_keys == base._excluded_output_keys + assert r.review_scored_before_count == 1_984 - 56 == 1_928 + assert r.review_scored_before_count_fmt == "1,928" + for name, frame in r.review_sweep_rows.items(): + assert len(frame) == 1_984, name + recorded = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable) + for row in frame.itertuples(index=False) + if row.excluded + } + assert recorded == base._excluded_output_keys, name + + +def test_the_review_records_quote_their_sweeps_values(): + """Each record's frozen value is the sweep's reference, and its + alternative is a value one of its sweeps computed for that output.""" + values: dict[tuple[str, str], list[float]] = {} + references: dict[tuple[str, str], float] = {} + for name, (_, baseline, readings) in REVIEW_SWEEPS.items(): + for row in r.review_sweep_rows[name].itertuples(index=False): + key = (row.scenario_id, row.variable) + references[key] = float(row.reference) + values.setdefault(key, []).extend( + float(getattr(row, reading)) for reading in readings + ) + for record in r.review_exclusions: + key = (record["scenario_id"], record["variable"]) + assert record["frozen_value"] == pytest.approx(references[key], abs=0.005) + assert any( + record["alternative_value"] == pytest.approx(value, abs=0.005) + for value in values[key] + ), key + assert record["reason_code"] == "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input" + + +def test_no_judge_had_flagged_the_reviews_outputs(): + """The paper says no judge flagged the eight: each adjudication keeps a + judge verdict of a model error with no reference-suspect flag.""" + assert r.review_judge_flagged_count == 0 + assert {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in r.review_adjudications} == ( + r.review_exclusion_keys + ) + for entry in r.review_adjudications: + assert entry["judge_failure_source"] == "llm_error" + assert entry["judge_reference_suspect"] is False + assert entry["excluded_from_scoring"] is True + # The manifest's tally of judge-flagged cases does not move. + base = _release_20260930() + assert r.audit_flagged_by_verdict == base.audit_flagged_by_verdict + + +def test_marylands_withholding_estimate_moves_only_an_excluded_federal_output(): + """The paper: policyengine-us reads Maryland's withholding allowance only + in its withholding estimate, and the one Maryland federal output that + estimate moves is excluded (reference_audit/2026-10-05).""" + frame = r.review_sweep_rows["salt_withholding"] + _, baseline, readings = REVIEW_SWEEPS["salt_withholding"] + maryland = frame[frame["state"] == "MD"] + moved = { + (row.scenario_id, row.variable) + for row in maryland.itertuples(index=False) + if any(getattr(row, reading) != getattr(row, baseline) for reading in readings) + } + assert moved == {("scenario_078", "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits")} + assert moved <= r.excluded_before_review_keys + paper = re.sub(r"\s+", " ", (ROOT / "paper/index.qmd").read_text()) + assert "the one Maryland federal output that estimate moves is excluded" in paper + assert ( + "which reaches federal tax through the state and local tax deduction." + not in (paper) + ) + + +def test_the_paper_dates_the_response_window_from_the_last_answer(): + """Differential: the window the paper's snapshot table prints (the + manifest's) is the one scripts/freeze_snapshot.py computes from the frozen + predictions, ending on the last answer's UTC date, not the release's.""" + sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + import freeze_snapshot + + start, end = r.model_response_date.split(" to ") + predictions = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "runs" / r.us_run_label / "predictions.csv.gz" + assert freeze_snapshot.model_response_window(predictions, start) == ( + r.model_response_date + ) + assert end == "2026-09-29" + assert r.snapshot_date == "2026-09-30" + assert _release_20260930().model_response_date.endswith(r.snapshot_date) + + +def _review_moves(): + outputs = st.tuples( + st.integers(min_value=0, max_value=12).map(lambda n: f"scenario_{n:03d}"), + st.sampled_from(_AMOUNT_OUTPUTS + _FLAG_OUTPUTS), + ) + + @st.composite + def build(draw): + moves = [] + for scenario_id, variable in draw(st.lists(outputs, max_size=30)): + if variable in _FLAG_OUTPUTS: + baseline = draw(st.sampled_from((0.0, 1.0))) + recomputed = 1.0 - baseline + else: + baseline = draw(st.floats(0, 1e5, allow_nan=False)) + recomputed = baseline + draw( + st.one_of( + st.floats(-2, 2, allow_nan=False), st.floats(-1e4, 1e4) + ).filter(lambda d: d != 0) + ) + sweep = draw(st.sampled_from(sorted(REVIEW_SWEEPS))) + moves.append((sweep, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed)) + before = draw(st.sets(outputs, max_size=6)) + added = draw(st.sets(outputs, max_size=6)) + return moves, before, before | added + + return build() + + +@settings(max_examples=300, deadline=None) +@given(_review_moves()) +def test_review_sweep_partition_is_exact_and_disjoint(case): + """Invariant: every move lands in exactly one group; a move of an output + excluded before is excluded_before, of an output the review excluded + newly_excluded, and of a still-scored output scored beyond or within the + exact-match tolerance by the size of the move.""" + from policybench.paper_results import moves_beyond_tolerance + + moves, before, now = case + partition = partition_review_sweep_moves(moves, before, now) + assert set(partition) == { + "excluded_before", + "newly_excluded", + "scored_beyond_tolerance", + "scored_within_tolerance", + } + placed = Counter(key for group in partition.values() for key in group) + assert placed == Counter((m[0], m[1], m[2]) for m in moves) + # The same output can move within the tolerance under one reading and + # beyond it under another, so each move is placed on its own. + expected = {name: Counter() for name in partition} + for sweep, scenario_id, variable, baseline, recomputed in moves: + output = (scenario_id, variable) + if output in before: + name = "excluded_before" + elif output in now: + name = "newly_excluded" + elif moves_beyond_tolerance(variable, baseline, recomputed): + name = "scored_beyond_tolerance" + else: + name = "scored_within_tolerance" + expected[name][(sweep, scenario_id, variable)] += 1 + assert {name: Counter(keys) for name, keys in partition.items()} == expected diff --git a/tests/test_reference_audit.py b/tests/test_reference_audit.py index e7383efe..6e4d6ce5 100644 --- a/tests/test_reference_audit.py +++ b/tests/test_reference_audit.py @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import csv import hashlib import json +from collections import Counter from pathlib import Path ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] @@ -21,6 +22,11 @@ # added r33 (release dashboard-data-20260922b excluded its output; from # dashboard-data-20260922c, after its fix merged, the output is regenerated). AUDIT_DATES = ("2026-09-22", "2026-09-24") +# Records later audits added: the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade +# (reference_audit/2026-09-28) and the 2026-10-05 audits of the state income +# tax in SALT, the Medicare Part B premium and state payroll components +# (reference_audit/2026-10-05, -medicare-part-b and -payroll). +LATER_DATES = ("2026-09-29", "2026-10-05") R33 = "r33_snap_child_support_treatment" # policyengine-us#9586, squash-merged on 2026-09-24. R33_MERGE_COMMIT = "d9e801df417352b8246a4c292a19ec082a518790" @@ -139,9 +145,29 @@ def test_sweep_rows_are_internally_consistent(): def test_every_regeneration_names_a_committed_fix(): + """Each revision's module is committed unchanged, and it regenerates + exactly the outputs its sweep moves that were scored when the wave + decided. A regenerated output stays scored at its regenerated value unless + the engine upgrade replaced the value or a record decided after the wave + excludes it: the 2026-10-05 SALT audit's scenario_022 federal income tax + (reference_audit/2026-10-05/README.md, step 3), whose record keeps the + regenerated value as its frozen reference.""" causes = _causes() references = _references() excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in _exclusions()} + # Outputs the wave saw excluded, and those excluded only by a later record. + excluded_then = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) + for e in _exclusions() + if e["decided_on"] <= AUDIT_DATES[-1] + } + excluded_later = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e + for e in _exclusions() + if e["decided_on"] > AUDIT_DATES[-1] + } + assert set(excluded_later) == excluded - excluded_then + superseded_by_exclusion = set() swept = {} for row in _moves(): if abs(row["recomputed"] - row["baseline"]) > 1e-6: @@ -171,14 +197,28 @@ def test_every_regeneration_names_a_committed_fix(): # previous reference. assert abs(superseded[key]["previous"] - change["regenerated"]) < 1e-6 continue - # A regenerated reference is scored and is the frozen CSV's value. - assert key not in excluded, key + # A regenerated reference is the frozen CSV's value. assert abs(references[key] - change["regenerated"]) < 1e-6, key - # Each source regenerates exactly the scored outputs its sweep moves. + if key in excluded_later: + # A later record excludes it at the regenerated value. + record = excluded_later[key] + assert record["decided_on"] in LATER_DATES, key + assert abs(record["frozen_value"] - change["regenerated"]) < 1e-6, key + superseded_by_exclusion.add(key) + continue + # Otherwise it is scored. + assert key not in excluded, key + # Each source regenerates exactly the outputs its sweep moves that were + # scored when the wave decided. moved = { - k for k in swept.get(source, {}) if k not in excluded or k in superseded + k + for k in swept.get(source, {}) + if k not in excluded_then or k in superseded } assert moved == set(changed), source + scenario_022 = ("scenario_022", "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits") + assert superseded_by_exclusion == {scenario_022} + assert excluded_later[scenario_022]["decided_on"] == "2026-10-05" def test_every_convention_and_upstream_fix_has_a_revision(): @@ -273,7 +313,9 @@ def test_snap_net_income_procedures_move_no_scored_reference(): def test_records_after_the_wave_carry_their_root_cause_date(): """An exclusion or adjudication a later revision added (r33, 2026-09-24) - takes its root cause's decided_on; every other audit record is the wave's.""" + takes its root cause's decided_on; every other audit record is the wave's. + A record a later audit added (2026-09-29 or 2026-10-05) carries that + audit's date, and so does its adjudication.""" causes = _causes() adjudications = _load( ROOT @@ -284,9 +326,17 @@ def test_records_after_the_wave_carry_their_root_cause_date(): adjudicated_on = { (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e["adjudicated_on"] for e in adjudications } - # Records dated 2026-09-29 belong to the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade. + # Records dated 2026-09-29 belong to the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade, and + # records dated 2026-10-05 to the 2026-10-05 audits: four and eight. + later = [e for e in _exclusions() if e["decided_on"] in LATER_DATES] + assert Counter(e["decided_on"] for e in later) == Counter( + {"2026-09-29": 4, "2026-10-05": 8} + ) + for entry in later: + key = (entry["scenario_id"], entry["variable"]) + assert adjudicated_on[key] == entry["decided_on"], key audit = [ - e for e in _exclusions() if e["decided_on"] not in ("2026-09-05", "2026-09-29") + e for e in _exclusions() if e["decided_on"] not in ("2026-09-05", *LATER_DATES) ] assert audit for entry in audit: diff --git a/tests/test_reference_exclusions.py b/tests/test_reference_exclusions.py index ac8df4bb..0ef32bf3 100644 --- a/tests/test_reference_exclusions.py +++ b/tests/test_reference_exclusions.py @@ -152,11 +152,26 @@ def test_frozen_snapshot_carries_the_exclusion_record(): # 52 through release 20260922c; the 2026-09-29 engine upgrade added three # unlisted-input records (taxability of a state and local tax refund), and # the audit excluded one more on review (scenario_023's head Medicaid - # eligibility, which turns on the SSA disability definition). - assert len(exclusions) == 56 + # eligibility, which turns on the SSA disability definition). The + # 2026-10-05 audits added eight unlisted-input records: three federal + # income tax outputs whose SALT deduction takes the engine's estimate of + # state income tax withheld (reference_audit/2026-10-05), scenario_114's + # Virginia income tax, whose itemized deductions start from a federal + # medical deduction that counts a modeled Medicare Part B premium + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b), and four + # payroll tax outputs that count an employee share of a state paid-leave + # or disability premium the employer may but need not deduct + # (reference_audit/2026-10-05-payroll). + assert len(exclusions) == 64 reasons = Counter(e["reason_code"] for e in exclusions) assert reasons == Counter( - {"reference_engine_defect": 28, "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input": 28} + {"reference_engine_defect": 28, "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input": 36} + ) + assert Counter(e["engine_version"] for e in exclusions) == Counter( + {"policyengine-us 1.755.4": 52, "policyengine-us 2.15.17": 12} + ) + assert Counter(e["decided_on"] for e in exclusions) == Counter( + {"2026-09-05": 11, "2026-09-22": 41, "2026-09-29": 4, "2026-10-05": 8} ) inputs = { e["unlisted_input"] @@ -167,6 +182,27 @@ def test_frozen_snapshot_carries_the_exclusion_record(): "meets_ssi_disability_criteria", "months_receiving_social_security_disability", } <= inputs + october = { + (e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e + for e in exclusions + if e["decided_on"] == "2026-10-05" + } + assert set(october) == { + ("scenario_022", "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_081", "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_114", "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_114", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_032", "payroll_tax"), + ("scenario_043", "payroll_tax"), + ("scenario_081", "payroll_tax"), + ("scenario_082", "payroll_tax"), + } + assert {e["reason_code"] for e in october.values()} == { + "reference_depends_on_unlisted_input" + } + assert {e["engine_version"] for e in october.values()} == { + "policyengine-us 2.15.17" + } reference = pd.read_csv(RUN_DIR / "reference_outputs.csv") assert len(scored) == len(reference) - len(exclusions) verify_exclusions_against_reference(reference, exclusions) diff --git a/tests/test_reference_upgrade.py b/tests/test_reference_upgrade.py index d6adbc9d..a9eebf9c 100644 --- a/tests/test_reference_upgrade.py +++ b/tests/test_reference_upgrade.py @@ -69,6 +69,18 @@ def _exclusions() -> dict[tuple[str, str], dict]: return {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in records} +def _later_exclusions() -> dict[tuple[str, str], dict]: + """Records decided after the upgrade: the 2026-10-05 audits' eight + (reference_audit/2026-10-05, -medicare-part-b and -payroll). The upgrade's + sweep and its publication check scored these outputs; each record is + computed on the reference engine, and its frozen value is the reference.""" + return { + key: record + for key, record in _exclusions().items() + if record["decided_on"] > UPGRADE_DATE + } + + def test_engine_and_provenance_name_the_recorded_release(): upgrade = _upgrade() assert upgrade["engine_version"] == f"policyengine-us {ENGINE}" @@ -92,20 +104,32 @@ def test_every_module_the_revision_names_is_committed_unchanged(): def test_the_sweep_table_is_the_committed_reference(): + """sweep_moves.csv marks the outputs excluded when the upgrade decided; an + output a later record excludes was scored then, and its record keeps the + reference engine's value.""" references = _references() sweep = _sweep() exclusions = _exclusions() + later = _later_exclusions() assert set(sweep) == set(references) and len(sweep) == 1984 + # 64 records less the 2026-10-05 audits' eight. + assert len(later) == 8 and len(exclusions) - len(later) == 56 + assert sum(row["excluded"] == "True" for row in sweep.values()) == 56 for key, row in sweep.items(): assert abs(float(row["reference"]) - references[key]) < 1e-6, key - assert (row["excluded"] == "True") == (key in exclusions), key record = exclusions.get(key) - if record is None or record["decided_on"] == "2026-09-29": - # Scored, or excluded in this wave: the engine value is the reference. + excluded_then = record is not None and key not in later + assert (row["excluded"] == "True") == excluded_then, key + if record is None or record["decided_on"] >= UPGRADE_DATE: + # Scored, or excluded in this wave or later: the engine value is + # the reference. assert abs(float(row["final"]) - references[key]) < 1e-3, key else: # Excluded earlier: keeps the value its record was decided on. assert abs(float(row["board_20260922c"]) - references[key]) < 1e-6, key + for key, record in later.items(): + assert record["engine_version"] == f"policyengine-us {ENGINE}", key + assert record["frozen_value"] == references[key], key def test_every_changed_reference_is_listed_and_reviewed(): @@ -355,10 +379,16 @@ def test_the_publication_release_recomputes_every_scored_reference(): assert {row["engine"] for row in rows.values()} == {VERIFICATION_ENGINE} assert {row["fix"] for row in rows.values()} == {"latest_final"} scored = set(references) - set(exclusions) - # 1,984 outputs less 56 exclusions: the 52 of release 20260922c, the - # three the upgrade added and the one the audit excluded on review. - assert len(scored) == 1928 - for key in scored: + # 1,984 outputs less 64 exclusions: the 52 of release 20260922c, the + # three the upgrade added, the one the audit excluded on review, and the + # eight the 2026-10-05 audits added. + assert len(scored) == 1920 + # The check ran before the 2026-10-05 records: it covers the 1,928 outputs + # scored then, which include those eight. + later = _later_exclusions() + scored_then = scored | set(later) + assert len(later) == 8 and len(scored_then) == 1928 + for key in scored_then: assert float(rows[key]["recomputed"]) == references[key], key # The sweep's frozen column is the committed reference, so its "moved" # outputs are excluded ones: the 19 the upgrade rechecked, each at the diff --git a/tests/test_release_20261006.py b/tests/test_release_20261006.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..45e44966 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_release_20261006.py @@ -0,0 +1,521 @@ +"""Release dashboard-data-20261006: the frozen records are what the driver builds. + +scripts/release_20261006.py builds the release from release 20260930 (read +from git at the base commit) and docs/release_20261006/. These tests rebuild +each committed record from the same inputs without the stage, and check the +driver's gates with properties. + +Invariants: +- the exclusion record is release 20260930's plus exactly the eight ruled + records, with the four spec edits and nothing else; +- the adjudication record is release 20260930's plus one developer + adjudication per ruled record, each keeping the judge verdict the evidence + file binds; +- the annotation files are release 20260930's with #197's ledger, the release's + rewrites and the adjudications applied, byte for byte; +- the references and predictions are release 20260930's; +- every score change comes from the eight records: rescoring the payload's own + rows with the eight outputs scored again gives release 20260930's scores. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import csv +import gzip +import io +import json +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pytest +from hypothesis import given, settings +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT / "scripts")) + +import release_20261006 as release # noqa: E402 + +SPEC = release.load_spec() +BASE = SPEC["base_commit"] +FROZEN = ROOT / release.SNAPSHOT_RUN +ANNOTATIONS = ROOT / release.ANNOTATIONS + + +def _base_json(path: Path) -> dict: + return json.loads(release.git_blob(BASE, path)) + + +def _committed_json(path: Path) -> dict: + return json.loads((ROOT / path).read_text()) + + +def _frozen_release() -> str: + manifest = _committed_json(release.MANIFEST) + return manifest["published_dashboard_artifact"]["tag"] + + +def _require_frozen() -> None: + if _frozen_release() != SPEC["release_tag"]: + pytest.skip(f"the frozen release is not {SPEC['release_tag']}") + + +# --- Spec ------------------------------------------------------------------------ + + +def test_the_spec_names_each_ruling_and_its_outputs(): + keys = [tuple(o) for p in SPEC["proposals"] for o in p["outputs"]] + assert len(keys) == len(set(keys)) == 8 + assert {k[1] for k in keys} == { + "federal_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "payroll_tax", + } + assert sorted(keys) == sorted( + (item["scenario_id"], item["variable"]) for item in SPEC["adjudications"] + ) + assert set(SPEC["rulings"]) == {"d963", "d974", "d972", "d831", "louisiana"} + + +def test_the_part_b_text_is_the_audits_own(): + """The words the 114 federal record gains are quoted from #193's record + verbatim, not retyped.""" + edit = next(e for e in SPEC["record_edits"] if "append" in e) + source = _committed_json( + Path("reference_audit/2026-10-05-medicare-part-b/proposed_exclusions.json") + ) + assert ( + edit["append"] + in source["conditional_on_salt_decision"][0]["if_salt_record_adopted"] + ) + + +# --- Exclusions ------------------------------------------------------------------ + + +def test_the_frozen_exclusions_are_the_base_plus_the_ruled_records(): + _require_frozen() + base = _base_json(release.SNAPSHOT_RUN / release.EXCLUSIONS) + built = release.build_exclusions(base, SPEC) + frozen = (FROZEN / release.EXCLUSIONS).read_text() + assert frozen == release.exclusions_text(built) + records = json.loads(frozen)["exclusions"] + assert len(records) == len(base["exclusions"]) + 8 == 64 + edited = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]) for e in SPEC["record_edits"]} + new = {tuple(o) for p in SPEC["proposals"] for o in p["outputs"]} + old = {release.key(r): r for r in base["exclusions"]} + for record in records: + k = release.key(record) + if k in new: + assert record["decided_on"] == SPEC["decided_on"] + elif k not in edited: + assert record == old[k], k + assert release.key(records[-1]) == ("scenario_023", "head_medicaid_eligible") + + +def test_the_references_and_predictions_are_release_20260930s(): + _require_frozen() + for name in (*release.REFERENCE_FILES, "predictions.csv.gz"): + assert (FROZEN / name).read_bytes() == release.git_blob( + BASE, release.SNAPSHOT_RUN / name + ), name + + +def test_every_model_is_scored_on_the_remaining_outputs(): + _require_frozen() + from policybench.snapshot_payload import read_run_payload + + payload = read_run_payload(FROZEN) + excluded = len( + _committed_json(release.SNAPSHOT_RUN / release.EXCLUSIONS)["exclusions"] + ) + assert {row["n"] for row in payload["modelStats"]} == {1984 - excluded} == {1920} + assert len(payload["modelStats"]) == 46 + + +# --- Adjudications and evidence -------------------------------------------------- + + +def test_the_new_adjudications_keep_the_bound_judge_verdicts(): + _require_frozen() + record = _committed_json(release.ANNOTATIONS / release.ADJUDICATIONS) + base = _base_json(release.ANNOTATIONS / release.ADJUDICATIONS) + assert ( + record["adjudications"][: len(base["adjudications"])] == base["adjudications"] + ) + new = record["adjudications"][len(base["adjudications"]) :] + assert len(new) == 8 + exclusions = { + release.key(r): r + for r in _committed_json(release.SNAPSHOT_RUN / release.EXCLUSIONS)[ + "exclusions" + ] + } + evidence = _committed_json(release.EVIDENCE)["cases"] + spec = {(i["scenario_id"], i["variable"]): i for i in SPEC["adjudications"]} + for entry in new: + k = release.key(entry) + assert list(entry) == list(release.ENTRY_FIELDS) + assert entry["reference_basis"] == exclusions[k]["unlisted_input"] + assert entry["reasoning"] == spec[k]["reasoning"] + assert entry["adjudicated_on"] == SPEC["decided_on"] + assert entry["adjudicated_failure_source"] == "prompt_ambiguity" + current = evidence[release.case_dir_name(*k)]["current"] + assert ( + entry["judge_model"], + entry["judge_failure_source"], + entry["judge_failure_subtype"], + entry["judge_reference_suspect"], + entry["judged_on_utc"], + ) == ( + current["judge_model"], + current["case_failure_source"], + current["case_failure_subtype"], + current["reference_suspect"], + current["judged_at_utc"][:10], + ) + assert release.DATE_CONVENTIONS_NEW in record["date_conventions"] + + +def test_the_evidence_fills_the_2026_09_29_wave_and_adds_the_new_one(): + _require_frozen() + evidence = _committed_json(release.EVIDENCE) + base = _base_json(release.EVIDENCE) + fill = SPEC["judge_evidence"]["fill_wave"] + waves = evidence["wave_releases"] + assert list(waves) == ["2026-09-05", "2026-09-22", "2026-09-29", "2026-10-05"] + assert waves["2026-09-29"]["commit"] == fill["commit"] + assert waves["2026-10-05"]["commit"] is None + # Every earlier case keeps its evidence; the 2026-09-29 wave's gain + # their published verdict. + for case, found in base["cases"].items(): + current = evidence["cases"][case] + extra = set(current) - set(found) + assert {k: current[k] for k in found} == found, case + assert extra <= {"published"}, case + + +# --- Annotations ----------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def test_the_committed_annotations_rebuild_from_the_base_and_the_ledgers(): + """Byte for byte: release 20260930's files, #197's scenario_031 ledger, the + release's rewrites, then every adjudication.""" + _require_frozen() + from policybench.adjudications import parse_adjudications + + files = { + name: release.git_blob(BASE, release.ANNOTATIONS / name) + for name in release.ANNOTATION_CSVS + } + files = release.apply_text_rewrites( + files, _committed_json(release.RULE_031)["rewrites"] + ) + files = release.apply_text_rewrites( + files, _committed_json(release.REWRITES_PATH)["rewrites"] + ) + record = _committed_json(release.ANNOTATIONS / release.ADJUDICATIONS) + files = release.adjudicated_csvs( + files, parse_adjudications(record, "committed record") + ) + for name in release.ANNOTATION_CSVS: + assert (ANNOTATIONS / name).read_bytes() == files[name], name + + +def test_every_release_rewrite_is_in_force(): + _require_frozen() + rewrites = _committed_json(release.REWRITES_PATH)["rewrites"] + record = _committed_json(release.ANNOTATIONS / release.ADJUDICATIONS) + adjudicated = {release.key(e): e for e in record["adjudications"]} + from policybench.adjudications import ( + _strip_adjudication_sentence, + adjudication_sentence, + ) + + for item in rewrites: + name = item["file"] + rows = list(csv.DictReader(io.StringIO((ANNOTATIONS / name).read_text()))) + keys = release.REWRITE_KEYS[name] + hits = [r for r in rows if all(r[k] == item[k] for k in keys)] + assert len(hits) == 1, item + expected = item["new"] + k = (item["scenario_id"], item["variable"]) + if name == release.CASES and k in adjudicated: + # The adjudication's sentence closes the note, whatever the + # rewrite carried before it. + expected = _strip_adjudication_sentence(expected).rstrip() + expected += adjudication_sentence(adjudicated[k]) + assert hits[0][item["field"]] == expected, item + + +# --- Scores ---------------------------------------------------------------------- + + +def _household_exact(country: dict, rescore: set) -> dict[str, float]: + """Each model's household-impact-weighted exact rate from the payload's + own rows, with the outputs in ``rescore`` scored again: the aggregation + test_snapshot_artifacts mirrors, written out again here.""" + from policybench.spec import output_group_id + + weights: dict[str, float] = {} + for variable, weight in country["globalWeights"]["household"].items(): + group = output_group_id(variable) + weights[group] = weights.get(group, 0.0) + weight + totals: dict[str, list[float]] = {} + for scenario, variables in country["scenarioPredictions"].items(): + kept = [ + (variable, rows) + for variable, rows in variables.items() + if output_group_id(variable) in weights + and ( + (scenario, variable) in rescore + or not any(row.get("scored") is False for row in rows.values()) + ) + ] + counts: dict[str, int] = {} + for variable, _ in kept: + counts[output_group_id(variable)] = ( + counts.get(output_group_id(variable), 0) + 1 + ) + raw = { + v: weights[output_group_id(v)] / counts[output_group_id(v)] for v, _ in kept + } + total = sum(raw.values()) + if total <= 0: + continue + models = {model for _, rows in kept for model in rows} + for model in models: + score = sum(raw[v] / total * rows[model]["exact"] for v, rows in kept) + entry = totals.setdefault(model, [0.0, 0]) + entry[0] += score + entry[1] += 1 + return {model: s / n for model, (s, n) in totals.items()} + + +def test_the_score_changes_are_the_eight_exclusions_alone(): + """Scoring the eight outputs again in this release's payload gives release + 20260930's published exact rates, and this release's are its modelStats: + no annotation, window or other change moves a score.""" + _require_frozen() + from policybench.snapshot_payload import read_run_payload + + payload = read_run_payload(FROZEN) + base = json.loads( + gzip.decompress(release.git_blob(BASE, release.SNAPSHOT_RUN / "data.json.gz")) + ) + new = {tuple(o) for p in SPEC["proposals"] for o in p["outputs"]} + now = {row["model"]: row["exact"] for row in payload["modelStats"]} + before = {row["model"]: row["exact"] for row in base["modelStats"]} + rebuilt_now = _household_exact(payload, set()) + rebuilt_before = _household_exact(payload, new) + for model in now: + assert rebuilt_now[model] == pytest.approx(now[model], abs=1e-9), model + assert rebuilt_before[model] == pytest.approx(before[model], abs=1e-9), model + + +# --- Properties of the driver's gates -------------------------------------------- + +TEXT = st.text( + alphabet=st.characters(blacklist_categories=("Cs",), blacklist_characters="\x00"), + max_size=30, +) + + +def _csv(rows: list[list[str]]) -> bytes: + return release._write_csv(["scenario_id", "variable", "model", "annotation"], rows) + + +ROWS = st.lists( + st.tuples( + st.sampled_from(["s1", "s2", "s3"]), + st.sampled_from(["a", "b"]), + st.sampled_from(["m1", "m2"]), + TEXT, + ), + max_size=8, + unique_by=lambda r: r[:3], +) + + +@settings(max_examples=150, deadline=None) +@given(ROWS, st.data()) +def test_rewrites_move_only_their_fields_and_are_idempotent(rows, data): + rows = [list(r) for r in rows] + files = {release.ROWS: _csv(rows)} + targets = ( + data.draw( + st.lists( + st.integers(0, max(len(rows) - 1, 0)), unique=True, max_size=len(rows) + ) + ) + if rows + else [] + ) + news = [data.draw(TEXT) for _ in targets] + ledger = [ + { + "file": release.ROWS, + "scenario_id": rows[i][0], + "variable": rows[i][1], + "model": rows[i][2], + "field": "annotation", + "old": rows[i][3], + "new": new, + } + for i, new in zip(targets, news) + ] + once = release.apply_text_rewrites(files, ledger) + assert release.apply_text_rewrites(once, ledger) == once + _, after = release._read_csv(once[release.ROWS]) + for index, (before, row) in enumerate(zip(rows, after)): + assert row[:3] == before[:3] + if index in targets: + assert row[3] == news[targets.index(index)] + else: + assert row[3] == before[3] + + +@settings(max_examples=100, deadline=None) +@given(ROWS, TEXT, TEXT) +def test_a_rewrite_of_text_the_field_does_not_hold_is_refused(rows, old, new): + rows = [list(r) for r in rows] + if not rows or old in (rows[0][3], new): + return + files = {release.ROWS: _csv(rows)} + item = { + "file": release.ROWS, + "scenario_id": rows[0][0], + "variable": rows[0][1], + "model": rows[0][2], + "field": "annotation", + "old": old, + "new": new, + } + if rows[0][3] == new: + return + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + release.apply_text_rewrites(files, [item]) + + +JSONISH = st.recursive( + st.one_of(st.integers(-3, 3), st.booleans(), st.none(), TEXT), + lambda children: ( + st.dictionaries(st.sampled_from(list("abcd")), children, max_size=3) + | st.lists(children, max_size=3) + ), + max_leaves=12, +) + + +@settings(max_examples=200, deadline=None) +@given(JSONISH, JSONISH) +def test_leaf_paths_are_empty_exactly_when_equal_and_symmetric(a, b): + paths = release.leaf_paths(a, b) + assert (paths == []) == (a == b) + assert sorted(map(repr, paths)) == sorted(map(repr, release.leaf_paths(b, a))) + + +@settings(max_examples=100, deadline=None) +@given(st.dictionaries(st.sampled_from(list("abcd")), JSONISH, max_size=4), JSONISH) +def test_a_change_under_an_allowed_prefix_is_never_a_problem(before, value): + after = {**before, "model_response_date": value} + before = {**before, "model_response_date": "x"} + assert release.manifest_problems(before, after) == [] + + +def test_a_change_outside_the_release_is_a_problem(): + before = {"snapshot_date": "2026-09-30", "model_response_date": "a"} + after = {"snapshot_date": "2026-10-06", "model_response_date": "b"} + assert release.manifest_problems(before, after) == [("snapshot_date",)] + + +@settings(max_examples=50, deadline=None) +@given(st.integers(0, 60), st.integers(0, 60)) +def test_the_version_description_counts_the_records_it_is_given(old, new): + text = ( + "Scored reference outputs (the 56 excluded outputs keep the values they " + "were decided on: 52 from policyengine-us 1.755.4, 4 from 2.15.17, and more)" + ) + records = [{"engine_version": "policyengine-us 1.755.4"}] * old + [ + {"engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17"} + ] * new + if not old or not new: + with pytest.raises(KeyError): + release.versions_description(text, records) + return + result = release.versions_description(text, records) + assert ( + f"the {old + new} excluded outputs keep the values they were decided on: " + f"{old} from policyengine-us 1.755.4, {new} from 2.15.17" + ) in result + + +def test_an_edit_that_does_not_fit_is_refused(): + record = {"scenario_id": "s", "variable": "v", "note": "abc abc"} + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + release.apply_record_edit( + record, {"field": "note", "replace": "abc", "with": "x"} + ) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + release.apply_record_edit(record, {"field": "note", "append": " abc"}) + assert ( + release.apply_record_edit(record, {"field": "note", "append": " d"})["note"] + == "abc abc d" + ) + + +def test_annotation_scope_refuses_a_change_to_another_output(): + header = [ + "country", + "scenario_id", + "variable", + "model", + "failure_source", + "failure_subtype", + "reference_suspect", + "annotation", + ] + base = release._write_csv( + header, [["us", "s1", "v", "m", "llm_error", "x", "False", "t"]] + ) + moved = release._write_csv( + header, [["us", "s1", "v", "m", "prompt_ambiguity", "x", "False", "t"]] + ) + files = { + name: base if name == release.ROWS else b"" for name in release.ANNOTATION_CSVS + } + staged = dict(files, **{release.ROWS: moved}) + cases = release._write_csv(["scenario_id", "variable"], []) + files[release.CASES] = staged[release.CASES] = cases + files[release.EXPLANATIONS] = staged[release.EXPLANATIONS] = cases + assert ( + release.verify_annotation_scope(files, staged, {("s1", "v")}, set())[ + release.ROWS + ] + == 1 + ) + with pytest.raises(SystemExit): + release.verify_annotation_scope(files, staged, set(), {("s1", "v")}) + + +def test_verify_payload_refuses_a_dropped_cell_or_household(): + """The cell comparison walks the staged payload's own keys, so a cell or a + household missing from it would otherwise go unchecked: its scores and + exclusion list can stay consistent without it. Equal payloads pass; a + payload that drops an excluded cell, or a whole household, is refused.""" + import copy + + base = release.base_payload(SPEC) + release.verify_payload(base, base, SPEC, set(), set()) + + excluded = base["countries"]["us"]["referenceExclusions"][0] + scenario, variable = excluded["scenarioId"], excluded["variable"] + without_cell = copy.deepcopy(base) + del without_cell["countries"]["us"]["scenarioPredictions"][scenario][variable] + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match=f"{scenario}'s outputs changed"): + release.verify_payload(without_cell, base, SPEC, set(), set()) + + without_household = copy.deepcopy(base) + del without_household["countries"]["us"]["scenarioPredictions"][scenario] + with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="the payload's households changed"): + release.verify_payload(without_household, base, SPEC, set(), set()) diff --git a/tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py b/tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py index d82a2a25..a05336ba 100644 --- a/tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py +++ b/tests/test_sensitivity_evidence.py @@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] DATA = ROOT / "sensitivity" / "data" SUMMARY = json.loads((DATA / "claude-fable-5-1-thinking.json").read_text()) +AUGUST = json.loads((DATA / "claude-thinking-2026-08.json").read_text()) DOC = ROOT / "sensitivity" / "claude-thinking-2026-08.md" SNAPSHOT_DIR = ROOT / "paper" / "snapshot" / "20260501" RUN_DIR = SNAPSHOT_DIR / "runs" / "us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" @@ -71,26 +72,41 @@ def test_doc_table_row_matches_the_summary(): def test_doc_table_ranks_match_the_frozen_46_model_board(): + """Each doc row's scores are its summary's, rounded for display, and its + ranks are the board's: the board row's own, and where the unrounded + sensitivity score would place (as app/src/lib/wouldRank.ts ranks it). A + rank taken from the rounded display value is off by a place whenever + rounding carries the score past a board row's score.""" text = DOC.read_text() assert "on the 46-model board (2026-09-30)" in text rows = read_run_payload(RUN_DIR)["modelStats"] assert len(rows) == 46 board_by_model = {row["model"]: row for row in rows} + blocks = {SUMMARY["model"]: SUMMARY} + blocks.update({block["model"]: block for block in AUGUST["runs"].values()}) + assert set(blocks) == set(SENSITIVITY_ROWS.values()) for label, model in SENSITIVITY_ROWS.items(): pattern = ( - rf"^\| {re.escape(label)} \| [\d.]+ \(#(\d+)\) \| " - rf"\*\*([\d.]+)\*\* \| [^|]+ \| \**#(\d+)\** \|" + rf"^\| {re.escape(label)} \| ([\d.]+) \(#(\d+)\) \| " + rf"\*\*([\d.]+)\*\* \| \+([\d.]+) \| \**#(\d+)\** \|" ) match = re.search(pattern, text, re.M) assert match, f"{label} sensitivity row missing from the doc" - board_rank, sensitivity_exact, would_rank = match.groups() - assert int(board_rank) == _would_rank(board_by_model[model]["exact"], rows) - assert int(would_rank) == _would_rank(float(sensitivity_exact), rows) - - assert SUMMARY["sensitivity"]["would_rank"] == _would_rank( - SUMMARY["sensitivity"]["exact"], rows - ) + board_exact, board_rank, sensitivity_exact, delta, would_rank = match.groups() + block = blocks[model] + board = board_by_model[model]["exact"] + assert round(board, 3) == block["board"]["exact"], label + assert float(board_exact) == round(board, 1), label + assert float(sensitivity_exact) == round(block["sensitivity"]["exact"], 1), ( + label + ) + assert float(delta) == round(block["delta_exact"], 1), label + assert int(board_rank) == _would_rank(board, rows), label + assert int(would_rank) == _would_rank(block["sensitivity"]["exact"], rows), ( + label + ) + assert int(would_rank) == block["sensitivity"]["would_rank"], label def test_exact_score_recomputes_from_committed_predictions(): @@ -137,9 +153,6 @@ def test_board_row_in_summary_matches_the_frozen_snapshot(): assert round(row["score"], 3) == SUMMARY["board"]["score"] -AUGUST = json.loads((DATA / "claude-thinking-2026-08.json").read_text()) - - def _scored_inputs(): import sys diff --git a/tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py b/tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py index 5bafde8c..7e7693a2 100644 --- a/tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py +++ b/tests/test_snapshot_artifacts.py @@ -643,21 +643,25 @@ def test_snapshot_copied_artifacts_match_source_runs(): def test_snapshot_deviation_audit_annotations_are_complete_and_final(): - # Release 20260930: release 20260929's counts plus GPT-6.1 Sol's 88 exact - # misses, every one annotated and classed llm_error (it parsed all 1,928 - # scored outputs). + # Release 20261006: release 20260930's counts (annotated 7,860; exact + # misses 7,856; below full bounded score 9,967; unannotated 2,107; + # llm_error 7,208 and parse_contract_failure 652) less the rows on the + # eight outputs it excludes. On those outputs release 20260930 had 368 + # scored rows (8 outputs x 46 models), all below full bounded score; 333 + # had a legacy threshold score below 1, all exact misses and all + # annotated (325 llm_error, 8 parse_contract_failure), and 35 did not. expected_audit_counts = { "us": { - "annotated": 7_860, - "exact_misses": 7_856, - "annotated_exact_misses": 7_856, + "annotated": 7_527, + "exact_misses": 7_523, + "annotated_exact_misses": 7_523, "annotated_exact_hits": 4, - "below_full_bounded_score": 9_967, - "unannotated_below_full_bounded_score": 2_107, + "below_full_bounded_score": 9_599, + "unannotated_below_full_bounded_score": 2_072, } } expected_sources = { - "us": {"llm_error": 7_208, "parse_contract_failure": 652}, + "us": {"llm_error": 6_883, "parse_contract_failure": 644}, } manifest = json.loads((SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json").read_text()) @@ -956,6 +960,52 @@ def test_reference_refresh_date_is_the_generation_date_not_the_snapshot_date(): assert refresh["date"] <= refresh["snapshot_date"] +def _frozen_run_dir(manifest: dict) -> Path: + run_label = manifest["source_run_labels"]["us"] + return ROOT / manifest["source_run_artifacts"][run_label]["path"] + + +def test_frozen_predictions_and_usage_summary_agree_on_the_last_answer(): + """Two computations of the last answer agree: the freezer's window, from + the frozen predictions, and the frozen usage summary's latest + last_request_at, which policybench.analysis aggregates per model.""" + from scripts.freeze_snapshot import _utc_date, model_response_window + + manifest = json.loads((SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json").read_text()) + run_dir = _frozen_run_dir(manifest) + start = manifest["model_response_date"].split(" to ")[0] + window = model_response_window(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz", start) + usage = pd.read_csv(run_dir / "analysis" / "usage_summary.csv") + assert window == f"{start} to {_utc_date(usage['last_request_at'].max())}" + + +def test_model_response_window_ends_on_the_last_frozen_answer(): + """The manifest's window ends on the UTC date of the last answer the frozen + predictions record, not on the release date, and its reproducibility + notes state the same window.""" + from scripts.freeze_snapshot import _response_window_phrase, model_response_window + + manifest = json.loads((SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json").read_text()) + start = manifest["model_response_date"].split(" to ")[0] + window = model_response_window( + _frozen_run_dir(manifest) / "predictions.csv.gz", start + ) + assert manifest["model_response_date"] == window + notes = " ".join(manifest["reproducibility_notes"]) + assert f"between {_response_window_phrase(window)}, as models" in notes + assert f"recorded {window} response window" in notes + + +def test_rendered_paper_states_the_manifest_response_window(): + """The rendered manuscript's snapshot table names the manifest's window, so + a manifest corrected without a re-render fails here.""" + manifest = json.loads((SNAPSHOT_DIR / "manifest.json").read_text()) + web = ROOT / manifest["rendered_paper_artifacts"]["web"]["path"] + page = (web / "index.html").read_text() + cells = re.findall(r"Model response date\s*([^<]*)", page) + assert cells == [manifest["model_response_date"]] + + def test_app_copy_of_serving_configuration_matches_the_frozen_file(): """The scenario explorer bundles a copy of the frozen serving config.