From 26a7d44613ddf9dda05fb453993302fc43aea32a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2026 10:16:28 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 1/2] Audit Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction behind two scored references scenario_051 and scenario_077 state income tax rest on policyengine-us's explicit 2026 Louisiana standard deduction of $12,835 (PR #8411), which no Louisiana publication states. The audit sources what Louisiana published, sweeps all 1,984 outputs under six candidate deductions on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with latest_final, and scores each option through the analyze CLI. It changes no reference. Before the 2026-07-03 freeze the Department of Revenue published only a provisional $12,875 (withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet), saying the return amount would differ; RIB 26-019 (2026-09-28) set it at $12,838, which moves the references by $0.09 and no exact match. The audit recommends keeping both references and drafts the documentation; the ruling is Max's. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md | 101 + .../fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py | 88 + .../fixes/latest_final_la.py | 50 + .../scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py | 130 ++ .../scripts/leaderboard_impact.py | 306 +++ .../scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py | 363 +++ .../scripts/verify_convention_module.py | 154 ++ .../check_retirement_exemption.json | 8 + .../verification/leaderboard_impact.json | 262 +++ .../leaderboard_impact_models.csv | 231 ++ .../verification/sweep_la_households.json | 461 ++++ .../sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv | 1985 +++++++++++++++++ .../verify_convention_module.json | 28 + tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py | 153 ++ 14 files changed, 4320 insertions(+) create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact_models.csv create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_households.json create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json create mode 100644 tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..e58750b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,101 @@ +# Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction, October 5, 2026 + +This directory audits the 2026 Louisiana standard deduction behind two scored references in release `dashboard-data-20260930`. It changes no reference. It recommends keeping both, and drafts the documentation the release should carry. The ruling is Max's (cos decision, see the PR). + +| Output | Reference | Models exact | +|---|---:|---:| +| scenario_051 state income tax before refundable credits (single, Louisiana AGI $40,180) | $820.35 | 0 of 46 | +| scenario_077 state income tax before refundable credits (single, Louisiana AGI $23,006.18) | $305.14 | 0 of 46 | + +Both references are 3% of Louisiana AGI less a $12,835 standard deduction. The five models with the highest exact-match rates answer $830.40 and $315.18, which use 2025's $12,500. + +## What the law and Louisiana published + +- **Statute.** La. R.S. 47:294(A) sets $12,500 for single and separate filers for 2025, and 200% of that for the other statuses. 294(B): from January 1, 2026, the prior year's amount is multiplied by "the percentage increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year". It sets no rounding rule and gives the Department of Revenue no duty to publish the amount. Act 11 of the 2024 Third Extraordinary Session enacted it; no later act amended it. The Constitution (Art. III, §2(A)(3)(b)) barred deduction bills in the 2026 regular session. +- **CPI-U** (BLS series CUUR0000SA0). December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054: +2.677%, released 2026-01-13. The 2025 annual average over 2024's is +2.631%. September 2024 to September 2025 is +3.013%. +- **Withholding (before the freeze).** The Department of Revenue published $12,875 single and separate, $25,750 for the other statuses, as the amounts it used in its 2026 withholding tables. That is $12,500 × 1.03, from the CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. It appears in: + - the R-1306 and R-1210 employer formulas (effective January 2026); + - LAC 61:I.1501's Emergency Rule (signed and posted 2025-12-23, effective 2026-01-01; Louisiana Register 2026-01-20, p. 13, 2601#014); + - Revenue Information Bulletin 26-005 (2026-01-12); + - the Notice of Intent (2026-02-20, pp. 308-317, 2602#031; repromulgated 2026-03-20, p. 422); + - the Rule (2026-05-20, LR 52:749, 2605#012). + + The rule documents and RIB 26-005 each say the amounts allowed on 2026 returns may differ once calendar-2025 CPI-U is released in January 2026. The R-1306 and R-1210 formulas carry the figure without that caveat. +- **Estimated tax (before the freeze).** The worksheet in the 2026 Form IT-540ESi instructions (created 2025-12-03; a Wayback capture of 2026-04-12 is byte-identical) gives the same $12,875 as the "Louisiana estimated standard deduction". Maryland's 2026 estimated-tax worksheet, by contrast, carried its 2025 amount. +- **Legislative Fiscal Office (before the freeze).** In the Notice of Intent's fiscal statement (Louisiana Register, 2026-02-20, p. 317), the LFO reads the statute as December to December, about 2.68%. It says the withholding deduction exceeds the deduction taxpayers will receive on 2026 returns. $12,500 × 1.0268 = $12,835.00. +- **The Department's indexing method (before the freeze).** In the Louisiana Register of 2026-06-20 (p. 1050, 2606#052; Wayback capture 2026-06-23, byte-identical), the Department's Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 puts the 2026 retirement income exemption at $12,324: $12,000 × 1.027. R.S. 47:44.1 indexes that exemption in the same words as 294(B). The same 2.7% on $12,500 gives $12,837.50. +- **The 2026 return amount (after the freeze).** Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019, dated 2026-09-28 (served Last-Modified 2026-09-29), sets $12,838 single and separate and $25,676 for the other statuses: $12,500 × the 2.7% CPI-U multiplier, with the joint amount twice the rounded single one. BLS's January 13 release gives the December-to-December change as 2.7%. The bulletin names no comparison months, and a RIB is not binding. The 2026 IT-540 instructions are not yet posted. https://dam.ldr.la.gov/lawspolicies/RIB%2026-019.pdf + +policyengine-us carries $12,835 and $25,670 as explicit 2026 entries in every version from the one that built the frozen references (1.755.4) through the reference engine (2.15.17). PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411 added them on 2026-05-24: $12,500 × 324.054 / 315.605, rounded to the dollar. No Louisiana publication states $12,835. + +## Does the convention cover $12,835? + +The benchmark card's convention reads: "Where policyengine-us projects a 2026 amount with a price index, or carries one published after the freeze, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published." + +$12,835 is neither. It was computed from CPI-U values BLS had published, under the statute's formula, and entered as an explicit 2026 value; nothing forecast it. The September 22 projection screen (`../2026-09-22/fixes/r18_hold_all_projections.py`) finds projected values by diffing the uprated parameter tree against the tree with uprating disabled. An explicit entry is in both trees, so the screen could not flag it, and no convention module touches Louisiana. + +So the governing rule is the card's first sentence: "A scored reference follows from the stated facts and from law published before PolicyBench froze the references on 2026-07-03." $12,835 follows from R.S. 47:294(B) and the January 13 CPI release. The LFO's published 2.68% gives it exactly. The Department of Revenue's own amount, $12,838, published after the freeze by the same method, moves each output by $0.09. + +The record's precedents on withholding publications run both ways: + +- Michigan's 2026 personal exemption came from Treasury's Form 446 withholding guide, and Missouri's 2026 brackets from its withholding formula. Wisconsin's amounts came from its 1-ES estimated-tax instructions. +- Maryland's withholding guide limited its $3,400 to the percentage withholding method. That amount fed only the engine's withholding estimate, and the return deduction was held at 2025's $3,350. + +Louisiana's withholding and estimated-tax amount sits with Maryland's: every notice that states it says the return amount will differ, and RIB 26-019 shows it does. Apart from SNAP's FY2027 figures, which USDA published after the freeze, every 2026 value the nine convention modules change on 2.15.17 replaces an uprated projection. No convention overrides an explicit engine entry that encodes a computation from pre-freeze data. + +One gap remains. Once policyengine-us encodes RIB 26-019's $12,838, the engine "carries one published after the freeze". The convention's letter would then send the reference to the amount published before the freeze, $12,875, or the last one published, $12,500. Both are further from Louisiana's 2026 law than either $12,835 or $12,838. The wording below closes that gap. + +## Options + +Values are policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final` (the system that built the references) and the Louisiana amounts replaced (`verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log`). Under every candidate, the sweep moves these two outputs and no other of the 1,984. Exact-match counts use the $1 tolerance on the release's 46 models (`verification/leaderboard_impact.json`). + +| Option | Deduction (single) | scenario_051 | scenario_077 | Models exact (051 / 077) | Headline effect | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| +| **Keep (recommended)** | $12,835 | $820.35 | $305.14 | 0 / 0 | none | +| Louisiana's 2026 return amount (RIB 26-019, after the freeze), for comparison | $12,838 | $820.26 | $305.05 | 0 / 0 | exact match unchanged; bounded scores move by under 0.0001 points | +| Regenerate with the amount published before the freeze | $12,875 | $819.15 | $303.94 | 0 / 1 (GPT-6 Astra) | GPT-6 Astra +0.06 points; no rank changes | +| Regenerate with the last return amount published (2025) | $12,500 | $830.40 | $315.19 | 21 / 19 | up to +0.13 points; Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.7 Flash swap exact ranks 24 and 25 | +| Exclude both outputs | n/a | not scored | not scored | n/a | 1,926 scored outputs; the same exact-rank swap, two bounded-score swaps (ranks 16/17 and 35/36) | + +Every calendar-year reading of 294(B) lands within the $1 tolerance of both references at any rounding up to $50: December to December, the annual-average change, and the 2.7% LDR applied. The two lines in the table below the recommendation: + +- **$12,875** was a withholding and estimated-tax amount. The Department said its return amount would differ, and RIB 26-019 shows it does. Regenerating with it would score models against a figure Louisiana never adopted for 2026 returns. +- **$12,500** is the 2025 amount. Every 2026 source supersedes it: the statute, every 2026 publication by the Department, and the LFO. + +Neither exclusion basis applies. The reference turns on no input the prompt omits, and the engine applies the law correctly on the stated facts. The readings the law allows agree within tolerance. + +## Recommendation + +Keep both references. Carry two documentation changes in the next release: + +1. **Benchmark card and paper.** Replace the convention's second sentence with: + + > Where a 2026 amount rests on a price-index projection, or on an index value or announcement published after the freeze, the reference takes the amount published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published. Where a statute fixes a 2026 amount from index values published before the freeze, the reference applies the statute, whenever the government announces the result. Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction is $12,500 increased by the calendar-2025 CPI-U change (R.S. 47:294(B)); the December 2025 index, released 2026-01-13, gives $12,835, and the $12,838 the Department of Revenue announced on 2026-09-28 moves neither reference by more than $0.09. A withholding or estimated-tax amount the government labels provisional sets no return amount. + + Without the second sentence, the convention's letter misfires once policyengine-us encodes RIB 26-019: the engine would then carry an amount published after the freeze, and the reference would fall back to $12,875 or $12,500. + + The same sentence bears on the record's other holds. Maryland's 2026 return deduction is indexed under Tax-General §10-217(c) through IRC §1(f)(3), whose index month for 2026 is August 2025 (BLS release 2025-09-11; `../2026-09-22/verification/v5b_projection_mn_md_mi_mo_il.md`). It was held at 2025's $3,350 because no 2026 return amount was published before the freeze; that hold moves scenario_068's state income tax by $2.375. Under the sentence above, Maryland's amount would come from its statute too. Whether any Idaho or Michigan hold is in the same position is unchecked. Adopting the sentence therefore means re-examining those holds in the release that carries it. Keeping the convention's current letter instead leaves Louisiana unchanged today (its $12,835 is no projection) and defers the question until policyengine-us encodes $12,838. +2. **Case notes for the two outputs.** Replace "inflation-indexed ... $12,835" with the sourced chain: + + > R.S. 47:294(B) multiplies 2025's $12,500 by the CPI-U increase for calendar 2025. The December 2025 index, released January 13, 2026, puts that at 2.68% (the Legislative Fiscal Office's figure in the Louisiana Register of February 20, 2026), which gives $12,835. Before the freeze the Department of Revenue applied 2.7% to the retirement exemption, which the same words index (Louisiana Register, June 20, 2026); on September 28, 2026 it set the standard deduction at $12,838 the same way (RIB 26-019). That gives $820.26 (scenario_051) and $305.05 (scenario_077), within the tolerance. The $12,875 in the Department's 2026 withholding tables and estimated-tax worksheet was a provisional amount from CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025. + + For scenario_077, record that GPT-6 Astra's $303.93 used that withholding amount. + +If Max rules instead that the convention takes the amount published before the freeze, `fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py` applies it. `fixes/latest_final_la.py` composes it with `latest_final`, and `verification/verify_convention_module.json` shows the composition reproduces the sweep's `ldr_published` column on all 1,984 outputs. + +## Method + +1. **Sweep.** `scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py` rebuilds every household with `Scenario.to_pe_household` and computes every output on policyengine-us 2.15.17 with `latest_final`. Its baseline reproduces all 1,928 scored references. It then reruns every household with the Louisiana 2026 amounts set to each candidate, joint at 200%. Outputs: `verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv`, `verification/sweep_la_households.json` (each Louisiana household's AGI, deduction, taxable income and tax under each candidate) and the log. +2. **Score.** `scripts/leaderboard_impact.py` copies the frozen run to scratch directories and never writes the snapshot. For each option it rewrites the two reference values (and the copy's reference digest) or appends the two outputs to the exclusion record. It scores each copy with `python -m policybench.cli analyze`, the command the freeze runs. The unchanged copy reproduces the published payload's scoring field for field. Outputs: `verification/leaderboard_impact.json`, `leaderboard_impact_models.csv` and the log. +3. **Module check.** `scripts/verify_convention_module.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs with `fixes/latest_final_la.py` and compares each with the sweep's `ldr_published` column; they agree on every output. policyengine-us applies a reform set twice (before uprating and again with its structural reforms), so the module's guard accepts the engine's value or its own. +4. **Tests.** `tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py` checks these records without loading the engine: + - the baseline matches every scored reference, and the candidates move only the two outputs; + - every Louisiana household's engine tax equals 3% of Louisiana AGI less the candidate deduction; + - between any two candidates, each output moves by exactly 3% of the deduction change; + - the analyze CLI moves exact match for exactly the models a $1-tolerance count says it should. + +5. **Retirement exemption.** policyengine-us 2.15.17 holds the R.S. 47:44.1 exemption for filers 65 and older at $12,000 for 2026. The Department published $12,324 before the freeze (Louisiana Register, 2026-06-20). `scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py` recomputes all 1,984 outputs with `latest_final` and the 2026 cap at $12,324: no output changes (`verification/check_retirement_exemption.json`). + +Louisiana's withholding proxy (`la_withheld_income_tax`) subtracts the federal standard deduction, so the Louisiana amount does not reach the federal SALT deduction. The three other Louisiana households (038, 057, 074) have Louisiana AGI below the deduction under every candidate. + +Engine: `results/local/adds202609/triage/.venv-pe21517` (policyengine-us 2.15.17). diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..808cd0a5 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_c_la_published_2026.py @@ -0,0 +1,88 @@ +"""c_la_published_2026 on policyengine-us 2.15.17: Louisiana's 2026 standard deduction as the Department of Revenue published it. + +DRAFT, not applied to any published reference: adopting it changes two scored references +and waits for Max's ruling (see ../README.md). + +Rule (benchmark card): a scored reference follows from law published before the +2026-07-03 reference freeze; where policyengine-us carries a 2026 amount it computed from +a price index rather than one a government published, the reference takes the amount +published before the freeze or, where none was, the last one published. + +La. R.S. 47:294(B) adjusts the standard deduction from January 1, 2026 by the percentage +increase in CPI-U "for the previous calendar year". policyengine-us 2.15.17 carries an +explicit 2026 entry of $12,835 single and separate and $25,670 for the other statuses +(PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411, merged 2026-05-24): PolicyEngine's own computation, +$12,500 x 324.054 / 315.605 rounded to the dollar, which no Louisiana publication states. + +Before the freeze the Department of Revenue published one 2026 amount, $12,875 single and +separate and $25,750 for the other statuses ($12,500 x 1.03, from the CPI-U data available +on December 1, 2025): + - the "Louisiana estimated standard deduction" on line 3 of the worksheet in the 2026 + Form IT-540ESi instructions (created 2025-12-03); + - the 2026 income tax withholding tables, LAC 61:I.1501: Emergency Rule signed + 2025-12-23, effective 2026-01-01 (Louisiana Register, January 20, 2026), Notice of + Intent (February 20, 2026, pp. 308-317, repromulgated March 20, 2026), Rule (May 20, + 2026, LR 52:749); RIB 26-005; the R-1306 and R-1210 employer formulas. +The rule documents and RIB 26-005 say the amounts allowed on 2026 returns may differ +slightly once calendar-year 2025 CPI-U is released, and the Legislative Fiscal Office's +remark in the Notice of Intent reads the statute as December to December (about 2.68%). +After the freeze, RIB 26-019 (2026-09-28) set the 2026 return amount at $12,838 and +$25,676 ($12,500 x 1.027); under it the two references are $820.26 and $305.05. + +This module is the alternative the audit does not recommend: it applies the convention to +policyengine-us's explicit entry and reads the provisional $12,875 as "the amount published +before the freeze". +https://www.doa.la.gov/media/hffhilyf/2605.docx +https://www.doa.la.gov/media/5tqefehu/2602.docx + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 reads the amount only in la_standard_deduction, and through it +la_taxable_income; la_withheld_income_tax uses the federal standard deduction, so the +change does not reach the federal SALT deduction. Recomputing all 1,984 outputs moves +exactly two, both scored: scenario_051 and scenario_077 state income tax before +refundable credits, each by -$1.20 (verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log). + +The 2.15.17 entry is explicit, not uprated, so the September 22 projection screen +(r18_hold_all_projections.py, which diffs the uprated tree against the tree with uprating +disabled) could not see it. +""" + +from policyengine_core.parameters import Parameter +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + +FIX_ID = "latest_c_la_published_2026" +DESCRIPTION = "Louisiana 2026 standard deduction as LDR published it before the freeze (2.15.17)" +ROOT = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount." +SINGLE_STATUSES = ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE") +DOUBLE_STATUSES = ("JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") +PUBLISHED_2026 = {ROOT + s: 12_875 for s in SINGLE_STATUSES} +PUBLISHED_2026.update({ROOT + s: 25_750 for s in DOUBLE_STATUSES}) +# What 2.15.17 carries. policyengine-us applies a reform set twice (before uprating and +# again with its structural reforms), so a second pass finds the published amount. +ENGINE_2026 = {ROOT + s: 12_835 for s in SINGLE_STATUSES} +ENGINE_2026.update({ROOT + s: 25_670 for s in DOUBLE_STATUSES}) +PUBLISHED_2025 = {name: (12_500 if value == 12_875 else 25_000) for name, value in PUBLISHED_2026.items()} + + +def _convention(parameters): + seen = set() + for parameter in parameters.get_descendants(): + if not isinstance(parameter, Parameter) or parameter.name not in PUBLISHED_2026: + continue + assert float(parameter("2025-01-01")) == PUBLISHED_2025[parameter.name], ( + parameter.name, + parameter("2025-01-01"), + ) + assert float(parameter("2026-01-01")) in ( + ENGINE_2026[parameter.name], + PUBLISHED_2026[parameter.name], + ), (parameter.name, parameter("2026-01-01")) + parameter.update(period="2026", value=PUBLISHED_2026[parameter.name]) + seen.add(parameter.name) + missing = set(PUBLISHED_2026) - seen + assert not missing, sorted(missing) + return parameters + + +class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(_convention) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..72cf5275 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/fixes/latest_final_la.py @@ -0,0 +1,50 @@ +"""latest_final plus the Louisiana standard deduction convention (DRAFT). + +The system a release would build the references with if Max adopts c_la_published_2026: +``reference_audit/2026-09-28/fixes/latest_final.py`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions +and the Maryland output-scope adapter), then ``latest_c_la_published_2026``. The Louisiana +module touches only gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount, which no +latest_final part touches, so order does not matter. + +latest_final is loaded from the 2026-09-28 directory, together with the IRS sales tax +table its IRS module reads, so the committed modules there stay byte-identical. +""" + +import importlib.util +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from pathlib import Path + +from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + +FIX_ID = "latest_final_la" +DESCRIPTION = "latest_final plus the Louisiana 2026 published standard deduction (draft)" +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +AUDIT = HERE.parents[1] + + +def _load(name, path): + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location(name, path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules[name] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module + + +def _latest_final(): + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="latest_final_la_")) + for path in (AUDIT / "2026-09-28/fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT / "2026-09-22/fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return _load("latest_final", target / "latest_final.py").reform + + +LATEST_FINAL = _latest_final() +LOUISIANA = _load("latest_c_la_published_2026", HERE / "latest_c_la_published_2026.py").reform + + +class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + LATEST_FINAL.apply(self) + LOUISIANA.apply(self) diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a0ea47b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py @@ -0,0 +1,130 @@ +"""Check whether Louisiana's published 2026 retirement income exemption moves any output. + +policyengine-us 2.15.17 carries the R.S. 47:44.1 exemption for filers 65 and older at +$12,000 for 2026 (parameters/gov/states/la/tax/income/exempt_income/retirement/cap.yaml: +2025-01-01 only, no uprating). The Department of Revenue published $12,324 for tax year +2026 before the freeze, in its Notice of Intent on LAC 61:I.1311 (Louisiana Register, +June 20, 2026, p. 1050, doc 2606#052). That is $12,000 x 1.027, the same 2.7% it later +applied to the standard deduction in RIB 26-019. + +Recomputes every output with ``latest_final`` and the 2026 cap at $12,324 and lists every +output that changes against ``latest_final`` alone. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/check_retirement_exemption.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.util +import json +import sys +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent +spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location( + "sweep_la_standard_deduction", HERE / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.py" +) +sweep = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) +sys.modules["sweep_la_standard_deduction"] = sweep +spec.loader.exec_module(sweep) + +OUT = HERE.parent / "verification/check_retirement_exemption.json" +CAP = "gov.states.la.tax.income.exempt_income.retirement.cap" +PUBLISHED_2026 = 12_324 +_SYSTEMS: dict[str, object] = {} + + +def _cap_reform(): + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + + def modify(parameters): + bracket = parameters.get_child(CAP).brackets[1] + assert float(bracket.amount("2026-01-01")) in (12_000, PUBLISHED_2026) + bracket.amount.update(period="2026", value=PUBLISHED_2026) + return parameters + + class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(modify) + + return reform + + +def _system(published: bool): + key = "published" if published else "baseline" + if key not in _SYSTEMS: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + if sweep._FIX_DIR is None: + sweep._FIX_DIR = sweep._assemble_fixes() + reforms = (sweep._load_latest_final(sweep._FIX_DIR),) + if published: + reforms += (_cap_reform(),) + _SYSTEMS[key] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=reforms) + return _SYSTEMS[key] + + +def run(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = sweep.build_situation(scenario) + values = {} + for published in (False, True): + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(published), situation=situation) + values[published] = sweep._outputs(sim, scenario, variables) + cap = float(_system(True).parameters.get_child(CAP).brackets[1].amount("2026-01-01")) + return { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "cap": cap, + "changes": { + v: [values[False][v], values[True][v]] + for v in variables + if abs(values[True][v] - values[False][v]) > 1e-6 + }, + } + + +def main() -> None: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + meta = json.loads((sweep.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(sweep.RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + jobs = [] + for _, row in pd.read_csv(sweep.RUN / "scenarios.csv").iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=6) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(run, jobs)) + summary = { + "policyengine_us": version("policyengine-us"), + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": sorted({r["cap"] for r in results}), + "outputs_compared": sum(len(j[1]) for j in jobs), + "changed_outputs": { + f"{r['scenario_id']}/{v}": pair + for r in results + for v, pair in r["changes"].items() + }, + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8030792f --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py @@ -0,0 +1,306 @@ +"""Score the frozen run under each option for the two Louisiana state income tax outputs. + +Copies the frozen run (predictions, references, scenarios, exclusions) to scratch +directories and never writes the snapshot. Each option is one copy: + +``keep`` + Unchanged. It must reproduce the published payload's scoring: every modelStats field + except the cost and latency fields the freeze overlays, and programStats, heatmap, + globalWeights and failureModes exactly. The script stops if it does not. +``ldr_published``, ``ldr_official`` and ``hold_2025`` + The two references replaced by their values under that candidate deduction, read from + ``verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv`` (policyengine-us 2.15.17 with + ``latest_final`` and the candidate). +``exclude`` + The two outputs appended to the exclusion record, so no model is scored on them. + +Each copy is scored with ``python -m policybench.cli analyze``, the command the freeze +runs, and every option is compared with ``keep``. + + PYTHONPATH= /bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/leaderboard_impact.py --scratch +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import gzip +import hashlib +import json +import os +import shutil +import subprocess +import sys +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv" +OUT_DIR = HERE / "verification" +OUTPUTS = ( + ("scenario_051", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_077", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), +) +REGENERATE = ("ldr_published", "ldr_official", "hold_2025") +OPTIONS = ("keep",) + REGENERATE + ("exclude",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +RUN_FILES = ( + "predictions.csv.gz", + "reference_outputs.csv", + "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json", + "reference_exclusions.json", + "scenarios.csv", + "scenarios.csv.meta.json", +) +# The freeze overlays these from the published payload; the analyze CLI does not. +OVERLAID = {"costUsd", "costPerHousehold", "totalTokens", "latencySeconds"} +METRICS = ( + "exact", + "within1pct", + "within5pct", + "within10pct", + "score", + "outputGroupScore", +) +EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS = ("programStats", "heatmap", "globalWeights", "failureModes") + + +def sha256(path: Path) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(path.read_bytes()).hexdigest() + + +def candidate_values() -> dict[str, dict[tuple[str, str], float]]: + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP).set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + values = {} + for candidate in ("engine",) + REGENERATE: + values[candidate] = {key: float(sweep.loc[key, candidate]) for key in OUTPUTS} + return values + + +def exclusion_entries(values: dict) -> list[dict]: + """Draft records, only to score the exclude option; the reason code is a stand-in.""" + entries = [] + for key in OUTPUTS: + entries.append( + { + "scenario_id": key[0], + "variable": key[1], + "reason_code": "reference_law_published_after_freeze", + "root_cause": "c_la_standard_deduction_2026", + "published": "draft: scoring stand-in, not a record", + "law": "La. R.S. 47:294(B)", + "alternative_reading": "draft: scoring stand-in, not a record", + "frozen_value": values["engine"][key], + "alternative_value": values["hold_2025"][key], + "engine_version": "policyengine-us 2.15.17", + "decided_on": "draft", + "decided_by": "draft", + } + ) + return entries + + +def stage(target: Path, option: str, values: dict) -> Path: + if target.exists(): + shutil.rmtree(target) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in RUN_FILES: + shutil.copy2(RUN / name, target / name) + if option in REGENERATE: + # Rewrite only the two rows' value field, so every other byte stays as frozen, + # and record the new digest in the copy's sidecar, as a regeneration would. + path = target / "reference_outputs.csv" + lines = path.read_text().splitlines(keepends=True) + for (sid, variable), value in values[option].items(): + prefix = f"{sid},{variable}," + hits = [i for i, line in enumerate(lines) if line.startswith(prefix)] + if len(hits) != 1: + raise SystemExit(f"{sid}/{variable}: {len(hits)} reference rows") + _, _, _, weight = lines[hits[0]].rstrip("\n").split(",") + lines[hits[0]] = f"{prefix}{value!r},{weight}\n" + path.write_text("".join(lines)) + sidecar = target / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json" + meta = json.loads(sidecar.read_text()) + meta["reference_csv_sha256"] = sha256(path) + sidecar.write_text(json.dumps(meta, indent=2) + "\n") + if option == "exclude": + path = target / "reference_exclusions.json" + record = json.loads(path.read_text()) + record["exclusions"].extend(exclusion_entries(values)) + path.write_text(json.dumps(record, indent=2) + "\n") + return target + + +def analyze(run_dir: Path) -> dict: + out = run_dir / "analysis" + dashboard = run_dir / "dashboard.json" + env = dict(os.environ, PYTHONPATH=str(ROOT), PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE="1") + subprocess.run( + [ + sys.executable, + "-m", + "policybench.cli", + "analyze", + "-g", + str(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + "-p", + str(run_dir / "predictions.csv.gz"), + "-s", + str(run_dir / "scenarios.csv"), + "-o", + str(out), + "--app-data-output", + str(dashboard), + "--reference-digest", + sha256(run_dir / "reference_outputs.csv"), + ], + cwd=ROOT, + env=env, + check=True, + stdout=subprocess.DEVNULL, + ) + payload = json.loads(dashboard.read_text()) + return payload["countries"]["us"] + + +def check_reproduces_published(base: dict) -> None: + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + for key in EXACT_PAYLOAD_KEYS: + if published[key] != base[key]: + raise SystemExit(f"unchanged copy does not reproduce published {key}") + a = {m["model"]: m for m in published["modelStats"]} + b = {m["model"]: m for m in base["modelStats"]} + if set(a) != set(b): + raise SystemExit("model sets differ") + for model, row in a.items(): + for field, value in row.items(): + if field not in OVERLAID and value != b[model].get(field): + raise SystemExit(f"{model}.{field}: {value} != {b[model].get(field)}") + + +def ranks(frame: pd.DataFrame, metric: str) -> pd.Series: + return frame[metric].rank(ascending=False, method="min").astype(int) + + +def compare(base: dict, option: dict) -> pd.DataFrame: + a = pd.DataFrame(base["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + b = pd.DataFrame(option["modelStats"]).set_index("model") + rows = pd.DataFrame(index=a.index) + for metric in METRICS: + rows[f"{metric}_published"] = a[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_option"] = b[metric] + rows[f"{metric}_delta"] = b[metric] - a[metric] + for metric in ("exact", "score"): + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] = ranks(a, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_option"] = ranks(b, metric) + rows[f"{metric}_rank_change"] = ( + rows[f"{metric}_rank_published"] - rows[f"{metric}_rank_option"] + ) + rows["n_published"] = a["n"] + rows["n_option"] = b["n"] + return rows.sort_values("exact_rank_published") + + +def exact_models(values: dict, option: str) -> dict[str, list[str]]: + """Models within the $1 tolerance of each output's reference under an option.""" + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + predictions = published["scenarioPredictions"] + result = {} + for sid, variable in OUTPUTS: + if option == "exclude": + result[f"{sid}/{variable}"] = [] + continue + reference = values["engine" if option == "keep" else option][(sid, variable)] + rows = predictions[sid][variable] + result[f"{sid}/{variable}"] = sorted( + model + for model, row in rows.items() + if row.get("prediction") is not None + and abs(float(row["prediction"]) - reference) <= TOLERANCE + ) + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--scratch", required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + scratch = Path(args.scratch) + values = candidate_values() + + payloads = {} + for option in OPTIONS: + payloads[option] = analyze(stage(scratch / option, option, values)) + if option == "keep": + check_reproduces_published(payloads["keep"]) + + OUT_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + summary = { + "outputs": [f"{sid}/{variable}" for sid, variable in OUTPUTS], + "reference_values": { + option: ( + None + if option == "exclude" + else { + f"{sid}/{variable}": values["engine" if option == "keep" else option][ + (sid, variable) + ] + for sid, variable in OUTPUTS + } + ) + for option in OPTIONS + }, + "published_reproduced": True, + "options": {}, + } + frames = [] + for option in OPTIONS: + models = compare(payloads["keep"], payloads[option]) + frame = models.copy() + frame.insert(0, "option", option) + frames.append(frame.reset_index()) + summary["options"][option] = { + "scored_outputs": int(payloads[option]["modelStats"][0]["n"]), + "exact_models": exact_models(values, option), + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": float(models["exact_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["exact_delta"].max()), + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": float(models["score_delta"].min()), + "max": float(models["score_delta"].max()), + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row["exact_rank_published"]), + "option": int(row["exact_rank_option"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row["exact_rank_change"] != 0 + }, + "score_rank_changes": { + model: { + "published": int(row["score_rank_published"]), + "option": int(row["score_rank_option"]), + } + for model, row in models.iterrows() + if row["score_rank_change"] != 0 + }, + "top5_exact": models.sort_values("exact_rank_option").head(5).index.tolist(), + "top5_score": models.sort_values("score_rank_option").head(5).index.tolist(), + } + pd.concat(frames).to_csv(OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv", index=False) + (OUT_DIR / "leaderboard_impact.json").write_text( + json.dumps(summary, indent=2) + "\n" + ) + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=2)) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..cf485a97 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py @@ -0,0 +1,363 @@ +"""Recompute every PolicyBench reference under each candidate 2026 Louisiana standard deduction. + +La. R.S. 47:294(B) adjusts the standard deduction from January 1, 2026 by "the percentage +increase in the [CPI-U] ... for the previous calendar year". policyengine-us 2.15.17, the +version that built the published references, carries an explicit 2026 entry of $12,835 +single and separate and $25,670 for the other statuses (PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8411): +$12,500 times December 2025 CPI-U over December 2024 CPI-U, rounded to the dollar. + +The reference system is the one that built the published references: policyengine-us +2.15.17 plus ``latest_final`` (the nine pre-freeze-law conventions and the Maryland +output-scope adapter), on households built by ``Scenario.to_pe_household``. The script +first recomputes every output under it and checks the result against the published +reference CSV. It then reruns every household with the Louisiana 2026 amounts replaced by +each candidate below. Each candidate sets the single and separate amount; the joint, head +of household and surviving spouse amounts are 200% of it (R.S. 47:294(A)(2)). + +``engine`` + $12,835, the amount the references use (December to December, rounded). +``dec_dec_unrounded`` + $12,500 x 324.054 / 315.605: December to December, no rounding (the statute names none). +``annual_average`` + $12,500 x 321.943 / 313.689: 2025 annual average over 2024 annual average. +``ldr_published`` + $12,875: the only 2026 amount the Department of Revenue published before the freeze: + its 2026 withholding tables (LAC 61:I.1501, Louisiana Register, January to May 2026), + based on CPI-U data available on December 1, 2025 ($12,500 x 1.03), and the + "estimated standard deduction" of its 2026 Form IT-540ESi worksheet. +``ldr_official`` + $12,838: the 2026 amount the Department of Revenue published on 2026-09-28, after the + freeze, in Revenue Information Bulletin 26-019: $12,500 x 1.027, the 2.7% CPI-U + multiplier, rounded to the dollar ($25,676 for the other statuses). +``hold_2025`` + $12,500: the 2025 amount, the last return amount Louisiana published before the freeze. + +CPI-U values: BLS series CUUR0000SA0 (not seasonally adjusted, 1982-84=100), read from the +BLS public API on 2026-10-05: December 2024 315.605, December 2025 324.054, 2024 annual +average 313.689, 2025 annual average 321.943 (October 2025 not collected), September 2024 +315.301, September 2025 324.800. + +Run from a policybench checkout with the policyengine-us 2.15.17 venv: + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/sweep_la_standard_deduction.py \\ + --out-dir reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import importlib.util +import json +import shutil +import sys +import tempfile +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +AUDIT_0928 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-28" +AUDIT_0922 = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-09-22" +YEAR = 2026 +BINARY_SUFFIXES = ("_eligible",) +TOLERANCE = 1.0 +# sweep.py's rename for the 1.755.4 harness; sweep_latest.py kept it on 2.15.17. +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} + +CPI_U = { + "2024-09": 315.301, + "2024-12": 315.605, + "2024-annual": 313.689, + "2025-09": 324.800, + "2025-12": 324.054, + "2025-annual": 321.943, +} +BASE_2025 = 12_500 +CANDIDATES = { + "engine": 12_835, + "dec_dec_unrounded": BASE_2025 * CPI_U["2025-12"] / CPI_U["2024-12"], + "annual_average": BASE_2025 * CPI_U["2025-annual"] / CPI_U["2024-annual"], + "ldr_published": 12_875, + "ldr_official": 12_838, + "hold_2025": BASE_2025, +} +SINGLE_STATUSES = ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE") +DOUBLE_STATUSES = ("JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") +PARAMETER = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount" +DIAGNOSTICS = ( + "adjusted_gross_income", + "la_agi", + "la_standard_deduction", + "la_itemized_deductions", + "la_taxable_income", + "la_income_tax_before_non_refundable_credits", + "la_non_refundable_credits", + "la_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "la_refundable_credits", + "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", +) + +_SYSTEMS: dict[str, object] = {} +_FIX_DIR = None + + +def _assemble_fixes() -> Path: + """latest_final and its parts, plus the sales tax table the IRS module reads.""" + target = Path(tempfile.mkdtemp(prefix="la_standard_deduction_fixes_")) + for path in (AUDIT_0928 / "fixes").glob("*.py"): + shutil.copy2(path, target / path.name) + shutil.copy2(AUDIT_0922 / "fixes/r19_irs_sales_tax_2025.json", target) + return target + + +def _load_latest_final(fix_dir: Path): + path = fix_dir / "latest_final.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + return module.reform + + +def _la_reform(single: float): + from policyengine_core.reforms import Reform + + def modify(parameters): + node = parameters.get_child(PARAMETER) + for status in SINGLE_STATUSES: + node.get_child(status).update(period=str(YEAR), value=single) + for status in DOUBLE_STATUSES: + node.get_child(status).update(period=str(YEAR), value=2 * single) + return parameters + + class reform(Reform): + def apply(self): + self.modify_parameters(modify) + + return reform + + +def _system(candidate: str | None): + """latest_final, then (for a candidate) the Louisiana 2026 amounts.""" + global _FIX_DIR + key = candidate or "baseline" + if key not in _SYSTEMS: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + if _FIX_DIR is None: + _FIX_DIR = _assemble_fixes() + reforms = (_load_latest_final(_FIX_DIR),) + if candidate is not None: + reforms += (_la_reform(CANDIDATES[candidate]),) + _SYSTEMS[key] = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=reforms) + return _SYSTEMS[key] + + +def build_situation(scenario) -> dict: + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + return situation + + +def _outputs(sim, scenario, variables) -> dict[str, float]: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + + values = {} + for variable in variables: + pe_variable = _pe_variable_for_output(variable, "us") + values[variable] = float( + _extract_person_value(sim.calculate(pe_variable, YEAR), scenario, variable) + ) + return values + + +def _diagnostics(sim) -> dict[str, float]: + values = {} + for name in DIAGNOSTICS: + try: + values[name] = float(sim.calculate(name, YEAR).sum()) + except Exception: # noqa: BLE001 - diagnostics only; a missing variable is NaN + values[name] = float("nan") + return values + + +def _simulate(situation: dict, candidate: str | None): + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + return Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(candidate), situation=situation) + + +def sweep_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + """Baseline and every candidate for one household.""" + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = build_situation(scenario) + base = _simulate(situation, None) + result = { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "state": scenario.state, + "baseline": _outputs(base, scenario, variables), + "baseline_diagnostics": _diagnostics(base), + "candidates": {}, + } + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + sim = _simulate(situation, candidate) + result["candidates"][candidate] = { + "outputs": _outputs(sim, scenario, variables), + "diagnostics": _diagnostics(sim), + } + return result + + +def main() -> None: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() + parser.add_argument("--out-dir", required=True) + parser.add_argument("--scenarios", nargs="*") + parser.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=6) + args = parser.parse_args() + + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + out_dir = Path(args.out_dir) + out_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + programs = meta["programs"] + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + exclusions = json.loads((RUN / "reference_exclusions.json").read_text())[ + "exclusions" + ] + excluded = {(e["scenario_id"], e["variable"]): e for e in exclusions} + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + if args.scenarios: + scenarios = scenarios[scenarios["scenario_id"].isin(args.scenarios)] + + jobs = [] + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(programs, scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + + engine = version("policyengine-us") + print(f"policyengine-us {engine}; {len(jobs)} households", flush=True) + print( + "candidates (single; joint is 200%): " + + ", ".join(f"{k}={v:.4f}" for k, v in CANDIDATES.items()), + flush=True, + ) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=args.workers) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(sweep_scenario, jobs)) + results.sort(key=lambda r: r["scenario_id"]) + + rows = [] + for result in results: + sid = result["scenario_id"] + for variable, base in result["baseline"].items(): + key = (sid, variable) + ref = float(indexed[key]) + entry = excluded.get(key) + binary = variable.endswith(BINARY_SUFFIXES) + row = { + "scenario_id": sid, + "state": result["state"], + "variable": variable, + "reference": ref, + "baseline": base, + "baseline_matches_reference": ( + round(base) == round(ref) if binary else abs(base - ref) <= 1e-3 + ), + "excluded": entry is not None, + "excluded_reason": entry["reason_code"] if entry else "", + } + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + value = result["candidates"][candidate]["outputs"][variable] + delta = value - base + row[candidate] = value + row[f"{candidate}_delta"] = delta + row[f"{candidate}_moved"] = ( + round(value) != round(base) if binary else abs(delta) > TOLERANCE + ) + row[f"{candidate}_changed"] = ( + round(value) != round(base) if binary else abs(delta) > 1e-6 + ) + rows.append(row) + table = pd.DataFrame(rows) + table.to_csv(out_dir / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv", index=False) + + households = [ + { + "scenario_id": r["scenario_id"], + "state": r["state"], + "baseline": r["baseline_diagnostics"], + **{c: r["candidates"][c]["diagnostics"] for c in CANDIDATES}, + } + for r in results + if r["state"] == "LA" + ] + (out_dir / "sweep_la_households.json").write_text( + json.dumps( + { + "policyengine_us": engine, + "candidates_single": CANDIDATES, + "cpi_u": CPI_U, + "households": households, + }, + indent=1, + sort_keys=True, + ) + + "\n" + ) + + scored = table[~table["excluded"]] + mismatched = table[~table["baseline_matches_reference"] & ~table["excluded"]] + print( + f"baseline: {len(table)} outputs, {len(scored)} scored, " + f"{len(mismatched)} scored outputs differ from the published reference" + ) + if not mismatched.empty: + print(mismatched[["scenario_id", "variable", "reference", "baseline"]]) + with pd.option_context("display.width", 220, "display.max_rows", 500): + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + changed = table[table[f"{candidate}_changed"]] + moved = table[table[f"{candidate}_moved"]] + print( + f"\n{candidate} ({CANDIDATES[candidate]:.4f}): {len(changed)} outputs change, " + f"{len(moved)} by more than ${TOLERANCE:g} " + f"({int((~moved['excluded']).sum())} scored)" + ) + if not changed.empty: + print( + changed[ + [ + "scenario_id", + "state", + "variable", + "baseline", + candidate, + f"{candidate}_delta", + "excluded", + ] + ].to_string(index=False) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..5f0578be --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py @@ -0,0 +1,154 @@ +"""Check the draft convention module against the sweep, output by output. + +Recomputes all 1,984 outputs with ``fixes/latest_final_la.py`` (latest_final plus +``latest_c_la_published_2026``) and compares each with the ``ldr_published`` column of +``verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv``, which the sweep computed with an inline +reform. The two are separate implementations of the same parameter change, so they must +agree on every output to the cent. Also checks the module's parameter values on the +engine: 2026 single and separate $12,875, the other statuses $25,750; 2025 unchanged at +$12,500 and $25,000. + + PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 OPENBLAS_NUM_THREADS=1 PYTHONPATH= \\ + /.venv-pe21517/bin/python \\ + reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/scripts/verify_convention_module.py +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import importlib.util +import json +import sys +from concurrent.futures import ProcessPoolExecutor +from importlib.metadata import version +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd + +HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +ROOT = HERE.parents[1] +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +SWEEP = HERE / "verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv" +OUT = HERE / "verification/verify_convention_module.json" +YEAR = 2026 +AGREE = 0.005 +RENAME = {"partnership_se_income": "partnership_self_employment_net_earnings"} +PARAMETER = "gov.states.la.tax.income.deductions.standard.amount" + +_SYSTEM = None + + +def _system(): + global _SYSTEM + if _SYSTEM is None: + from policyengine_us import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + path = HERE / "fixes/latest_final_la.py" + spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("latest_final_la", path) + module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec) + sys.modules["latest_final_la"] = module + spec.loader.exec_module(module) + _SYSTEM = CountryTaxBenefitSystem(reform=module.reform) + return _SYSTEM + + +def run_scenario(args: tuple[str, list[str]]) -> dict: + from policybench.ground_truth import _extract_person_value, _pe_variable_for_output + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policyengine_us import Simulation + + scenario_json, variables = args + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(scenario_json)) + situation = scenario.to_pe_household() + for person in situation["people"].values(): + for old, new in RENAME.items(): + if old in person: + person[new] = person.pop(old) + sim = Simulation(tax_benefit_system=_system(), situation=situation) + return { + "scenario_id": scenario.id, + "values": { + v: float( + _extract_person_value( + sim.calculate(_pe_variable_for_output(v, "us"), YEAR), scenario, v + ) + ) + for v in variables + }, + } + + +def parameter_values() -> dict[str, dict[str, float]]: + node = _system().parameters.get_child(PARAMETER) + return { + status: { + year: float(node.get_child(status)(f"{year}-01-01")) + for year in ("2025", "2026") + } + for status in ("SINGLE", "SEPARATE", "JOINT", "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", "SURVIVING_SPOUSE") + } + + +def main() -> None: + from policybench.scenarios import scenario_from_dict + from policybench.spec import expand_programs_for_scenario + + meta = json.loads((RUN / "reference_outputs.csv.meta.json").read_text()) + reference = pd.read_csv(RUN / "reference_outputs.csv") + indexed = reference.set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"])["value"] + jobs = [] + for _, row in pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv").iterrows(): + scenario = scenario_from_dict(json.loads(row["scenario_json"])) + variables = [ + v + for v in expand_programs_for_scenario(meta["programs"], scenario) + if (scenario.id, v) in indexed.index + ] + jobs.append((row["scenario_json"], variables)) + with ProcessPoolExecutor(max_workers=6) as pool: + results = list(pool.map(run_scenario, jobs)) + + sweep = pd.read_csv(SWEEP).set_index(["scenario_id", "variable"]) + disagreements = [] + compared = 0 + for result in results: + for variable, value in result["values"].items(): + expected = float(sweep.loc[(result["scenario_id"], variable), "ldr_published"]) + compared += 1 + if abs(value - expected) > AGREE: + disagreements.append( + { + "scenario_id": result["scenario_id"], + "variable": variable, + "module": value, + "sweep_ldr_published": expected, + } + ) + params = parameter_values() + expected_params = { + status: {"2025": base, "2026": published} + for status, base, published in ( + ("SINGLE", 12_500.0, 12_875.0), + ("SEPARATE", 12_500.0, 12_875.0), + ("JOINT", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ("HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ("SURVIVING_SPOUSE", 25_000.0, 25_750.0), + ) + } + summary = { + "policyengine_us": version("policyengine-us"), + "outputs_compared": compared, + "disagreements": disagreements, + "parameters": params, + "parameters_as_expected": params == expected_params, + } + OUT.write_text(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True) + "\n") + print(json.dumps(summary, indent=1, sort_keys=True)) + if disagreements or not summary["parameters_as_expected"]: + raise SystemExit(1) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..43e22a79 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.json @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +{ + "changed_outputs": {}, + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17", + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": [ + 12324.0 + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d76176d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.json @@ -0,0 +1,262 @@ +{ + "outputs": [ + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "reference_values": { + "keep": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.3499755859375, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 819.1499633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 303.9352722167969 + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.260009765625, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.0452575683594 + }, + "hold_2025": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 830.3999633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 315.1852722167969 + }, + "exclude": null + }, + "published_reproduced": true, + "options": { + "keep": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.06272079169582412 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.0005167707332418559, + "max": 0.00028133168919453055 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -3.863225583700114e-05, + 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+scenario_123,PA,snap,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False +scenario_123,PA,ssi,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False +scenario_123,PA,state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits,3070.061279296875,3070.061279296875,True,False,,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False,3070.061279296875,0.0,False,False +scenario_123,PA,state_refundable_credits,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False +scenario_123,PA,tanf,0.0,0.0,True,False,,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False,0.0,0.0,False,False diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bc38a49d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.json @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "disagreements": [], + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "parameters": { + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "JOINT": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "SEPARATE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SINGLE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + } + }, + "parameters_as_expected": true, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17" +} diff --git a/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py b/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8a2610be --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_la_standard_deduction_audit.py @@ -0,0 +1,153 @@ +"""The Louisiana 2026 standard deduction audit (reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana). + +Checks the committed sweep and scoring records against each other and against the +statute's arithmetic, without loading the engine: + +- the sweep's baseline reproduces every scored reference, and the candidates move only + the two Louisiana state income tax outputs; +- for every Louisiana household and every candidate, the engine's Louisiana tax is 3% + of Louisiana AGI less the candidate deduction (R.S. 47:32, 47:293, 47:294), with the + joint, head of household and surviving spouse amount at 200% of the single one; +- between any two candidates, each output moves by exactly 3% of the change in the + deduction where taxable income stays positive, and not at all where it stays zero; +- the analyze CLI's scoring moves exact match for exactly the models a $1-tolerance + count of their answers says it should. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import gzip +import itertools +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +AUDIT = ROOT / "reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana" +VERIFICATION = AUDIT / "verification" +RUN = ( + ROOT + / "paper/snapshot/20260501/runs/us_full_run_20260612_policyengine_4_16_1_populace" +) +OUTPUTS = { + ("scenario_051", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), + ("scenario_077", "state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"), +} +CANDIDATES = ( + "engine", + "dec_dec_unrounded", + "annual_average", + "ldr_published", + "ldr_official", + "hold_2025", +) +RATE = 0.03 +DOUBLE = {"joint", "head_of_household", "surviving_spouse"} + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def sweep() -> pd.DataFrame: + return pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "sweep_la_standard_deduction.csv") + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def households() -> dict: + return json.loads((VERIFICATION / "sweep_la_households.json").read_text()) + + +@pytest.fixture(scope="module") +def filing_status() -> dict[str, str]: + scenarios = pd.read_csv(RUN / "scenarios.csv") + return { + row["scenario_id"]: json.loads(row["scenario_json"])["filing_status"].lower() + for _, row in scenarios.iterrows() + } + + +def test_baseline_reproduces_every_scored_reference(sweep): + assert len(sweep) == 1984 + scored = sweep[~sweep["excluded"]] + assert len(scored) == 1928 + assert scored["baseline_matches_reference"].all() + + +def test_engine_candidate_is_the_reference(sweep): + assert not sweep["engine_changed"].any() + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("candidate", CANDIDATES[1:]) +def test_candidates_move_only_the_two_louisiana_outputs(sweep, candidate): + changed = sweep[sweep[f"{candidate}_changed"]] + assert set(zip(changed["scenario_id"], changed["variable"])) == OUTPUTS + assert not changed["excluded"].any() + + +def test_statute_arithmetic_for_every_louisiana_household(households, filing_status): + candidates = households["candidates_single"] + assert {h["scenario_id"] for h in households["households"]} == { + "scenario_038", + "scenario_051", + "scenario_057", + "scenario_074", + "scenario_077", + } + for household in households["households"]: + multiple = 2 if filing_status[household["scenario_id"]] in DOUBLE else 1 + for candidate in CANDIDATES: + d = household[candidate] + assert d["la_standard_deduction"] == pytest.approx( + multiple * candidates[candidate], abs=0.01 + ) + assert d["la_itemized_deductions"] == 0 + taxable = max(d["la_agi"] - d["la_standard_deduction"], 0) + assert d["la_taxable_income"] == pytest.approx(taxable, abs=0.01) + assert d["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] == pytest.approx( + RATE * taxable - d["la_non_refundable_credits"], abs=0.01 + ) + + +def test_pairwise_moves_are_three_percent_of_the_deduction_change( + households, filing_status +): + candidates = households["candidates_single"] + for household in households["households"]: + multiple = 2 if filing_status[household["scenario_id"]] in DOUBLE else 1 + for a, b in itertools.permutations(CANDIDATES, 2): + da, db = household[a], household[b] + move = ( + db["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] + - da["state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits"] + ) + if da["la_taxable_income"] > 0 and db["la_taxable_income"] > 0: + expected = -RATE * multiple * (candidates[b] - candidates[a]) + assert move == pytest.approx(expected, abs=0.01) + if da["la_taxable_income"] == 0 and db["la_taxable_income"] == 0: + assert move == 0 + + +def test_scoring_moves_exact_match_for_exactly_the_models_that_match(): + summary = json.loads((VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact.json").read_text()) + assert summary["published_reproduced"] is True + models = pd.read_csv(VERIFICATION / "leaderboard_impact_models.csv") + published = json.loads(gzip.decompress((RUN / "data.json.gz").read_bytes())) + predictions = published["scenarioPredictions"] + for option in ("keep", "ldr_published", "ldr_official", "hold_2025"): + values = summary["reference_values"][option] + matched = set() + for key, reference in values.items(): + sid, variable = key.split("/") + within = sorted( + model + for model, row in predictions[sid][variable].items() + if row.get("prediction") is not None + and abs(float(row["prediction"]) - reference) <= 1.0 + ) + assert within == summary["options"][option]["exact_models"][key] + matched.update(within) + rows = models[models["option"] == option] + moved = set(rows[rows["exact_delta"] > 1e-12]["model"]) + assert moved == matched, option + assert summary["options"]["exclude"]["scored_outputs"] == 1926 + assert summary["options"]["keep"]["scored_outputs"] == 1928 From 9ab236ff31bff64f3b33931c77d48b0734624551 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Max Ghenis Date: Mon, 5 Oct 2026 10:16:46 -0400 Subject: [PATCH 2/2] Keep the sweep, scoring and check logs the audit README cites Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../check_retirement_exemption.log | 8 + .../verification/leaderboard_impact.log | 262 ++++++++++++++++++ .../sweep_la_standard_deduction.log | 30 ++ .../verification/verify_convention_module.log | 28 ++ 4 files changed, 328 insertions(+) create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.log create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log create mode 100644 reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..43e22a79 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/check_retirement_exemption.log @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +{ + "changed_outputs": {}, + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17", + "retirement_cap_2026_under_check": [ + 12324.0 + ] +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d76176d1 --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/leaderboard_impact.log @@ -0,0 +1,262 @@ +{ + "outputs": [ + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits", + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits" + ], + "reference_values": { + "keep": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.3499755859375, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.13525390625 + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 819.1499633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 303.9352722167969 + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 820.260009765625, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 305.0452575683594 + }, + "hold_2025": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 830.3999633789062, + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": 315.1852722167969 + }, + "exclude": null + }, + "published_reproduced": true, + "options": { + "keep": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_published": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.06272079169582412 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.0005167707332418559, + "max": 0.00028133168919453055 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "ldr_official": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.0 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -3.863225583700114e-05, + "max": 2.1031813147942557e-05 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": {}, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "hold_2025": { + "scored_outputs": 1928, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro-0813", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "glm-5.3", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-5.6-terra", + "gpt-6-astra", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3", + "ox-alpha" + ], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [ + "claude-fable-5.1", + "claude-opus-4.7", + "claude-opus-4.8", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "deepseek-v4-pro", + "deepseek-v4.1-flash", + "gemini-3.6-flash", + "glm-5.2", + "gpt-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-luna", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "gpt-6-sol", + "gpt-6.1-sol", + "grok-4.6", + "grok-4.7", + "inkling", + "kimi-k3" + ] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.0, + "max": 0.12544158339163403 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.002283981102237931, + "max": 0.004194709549594222 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + "gemini-3.7-flash": { + "published": 24, + "option": 25 + }, + "gemini-3.6-flash": { + "published": 25, + "option": 24 + } + }, + "score_rank_changes": {}, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + }, + "exclude": { + "scored_outputs": 1926, + "exact_models": { + "scenario_051/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [], + "scenario_077/state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits": [] + }, + "exact_delta_pp": { + "min": 0.04663680912904056, + "max": 0.12544158339163403 + }, + "score_delta": { + "min": -0.026480417381307575, + "max": 0.09867438210626744 + }, + "exact_rank_changes": { + "gemini-3.7-flash": { + "published": 24, + "option": 25 + }, + "gemini-3.6-flash": { + "published": 25, + "option": 24 + } + }, + "score_rank_changes": { + "ox-alpha": { + "published": 17, + "option": 16 + }, + "grok-4.6": { + "published": 16, + "option": 17 + }, + "grok-4.3": { + "published": 36, + "option": 35 + }, + "gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview": { + "published": 35, + "option": 36 + } + }, + "top5_exact": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-5.6-sol", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5" + ], + "top5_score": [ + "gpt-6-sol", + "claude-opus-5.5", + "gpt-6-luna", + "claude-sonnet-5.5", + "gpt-6-astra" + ] + } + } +} diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..fffba1ae --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/sweep_la_standard_deduction.log @@ -0,0 +1,30 @@ +policyengine-us 2.15.17; 100 households +candidates (single; joint is 200%): engine=12835.0000, dec_dec_unrounded=12834.6351, annual_average=12828.9086, ldr_published=12875.0000, ldr_official=12838.0000, hold_2025=12500.0000 +baseline: 1984 outputs, 1928 scored, 0 scored outputs differ from the published reference + +engine (12835.0000): 0 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + +dec_dec_unrounded (12834.6351): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline dec_dec_unrounded dec_dec_unrounded_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.360962 0.010986 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.146210 0.010956 False + +annual_average (12828.9086): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline annual_average annual_average_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.532715 0.182739 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.318024 0.182770 False + +ldr_published (12875.0000): 2 outputs change, 2 by more than $1 (2 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline ldr_published ldr_published_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 819.149963 -1.200012 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 303.935272 -1.199982 False + +ldr_official (12838.0000): 2 outputs change, 0 by more than $1 (0 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline ldr_official ldr_official_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 820.260010 -0.089966 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 305.045258 -0.089996 False + +hold_2025 (12500.0000): 2 outputs change, 2 by more than $1 (2 scored) + scenario_id state variable baseline hold_2025 hold_2025_delta excluded +scenario_051 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 820.349976 830.399963 10.049988 False +scenario_077 LA state_income_tax_before_refundable_credits 305.135254 315.185272 10.050018 False diff --git a/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log new file mode 100644 index 00000000..bc38a49d --- /dev/null +++ b/reference_audit/2026-10-05-louisiana/verification/verify_convention_module.log @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +{ + "disagreements": [], + "outputs_compared": 1984, + "parameters": { + "HEAD_OF_HOUSEHOLD": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "JOINT": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + }, + "SEPARATE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SINGLE": { + "2025": 12500.0, + "2026": 12875.0 + }, + "SURVIVING_SPOUSE": { + "2025": 25000.0, + "2026": 25750.0 + } + }, + "parameters_as_expected": true, + "policyengine_us": "2.15.17" +}